Hottest Markets Slowing Down

It’s a bit of an odd market out there.  On the one hand, there are more over ask sales than even last year and we have extremely low inventory.   On the other the number of price cuts seem to be increasing.   By the stats it’s still a very hot market but around here there are more listings coming on and they are selling quite slowly.

Last June Gordon Head was smoking hot, with only 30 detached homes for sale, and half of all sales happening in 6 days or less.   Now there are 48 listings and climbing, and it takes twice as long for a sale.   Similar situation in Oak Bay, with listings double that of last June, and time to sell climbing.   So far the overall market stats have been masking these regional pullbacks.  Places like Langford have fewer detached listings than this time last year and properties are selling twice as quickly (median 10 days to sell instead of 22 last June).

Now the average days on market are still low compared to any normal year, but as it increases we will start to see fewer above ask sales.   Quite logically, the longer a property sits, the more of a discount off ask it is likely to sell for.  More importantly for buyers, a somewhat cooling market gives some breathing room to do due diligence and add conditions to an offer.

The above chart was created from history in 2016/17 for the sellers’ market, 2014/15 for the balanced market, and 2013 for the buyers’ market.

Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

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June 19 Market Update

Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

June 2017
June
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 96 331  586
1174
New Listings 189 542  849
1319
Active Listings 1939 2000  1992
2289
Sales to New Listings  51% 61%  69%
89%
Sales Projection 915  997
Months of Inventory

1.9

Well the 2000 listing level was short lived.  A good sales week drove it back down a smidge and we are now 15% below last year’s sales rate with 15% fewer properties on the market.

Despite some early signs of softening like more price changes, it seems the number of over-ask sales aren’t slowing down.   Looking at a few days of sales in the past years, the percentage of over-asks (defined as more than 1% over asking price) is higher than ever.  You can see a big difference between a hot market like now and last year, to a balanced market (2015) and a slow market (2013).

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