Nov 20 Market Update

Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Nov 2017
Nov
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 83  241  408  599
New Listings 157  387  553  786
Active Listings 1909  1916 1855 1815
Sales to New Listings  53%  62%  74%  76%
Sales Projection  569  616
Months of Inventory 3.0

The case of the misleading sales statistics continues from last week.   Not quite as bad this week, but still of the 167 sales reported for the week, 8 actually happened in the spring, and another 11 happened between the summer and 2 weeks ago.   So while sales appear to be up 11% from last year, they are actually going at about the same pace.   Still a quite active market though.   We will likely pass 600 sales which is significantly higher than the 10 year average of 484.   In a slow year we would see only about 380 sales in November.

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Nov 14 Market Update

Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Nov 2017
Nov
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 83  241  599
New Listings 157  387  786
Active Listings 1909  1916 1815
Sales to New Listings  53%  62%  76%
Sales Projection  569
Months of Inventory 3.0

Quite a strong week of sales to put us at the same sales pace as this time last year.   Or is it?  I was surprised at the high sales this week, which more than made up for the weakness in the first week and put us above the sales rate of this time last year which we haven’t seen for quite some time.   However my job is not to mindlessly post stats, so while searching for something intelligent to say about the market, I picked through the week’s sales.

As a reminder, the weekly numbers released by the VREB are not the sales from the week, but rather whatever listings were marked as sold that week (the complete and completely boring explanation is here).  Usually those sales are from the week or the previous one, but sometimes the sales that are entered are really old.   Like this week, where included in the tally were some sales from not last week, not the week before, not the month before, or the one before that, but sales from last year.  And it wasn’t just a few, it was 20 condo units of a new build out in Langford that sold a full 11 months ago but showed up in the weekly numbers just now.

So no, sales are not up compared to last year, they are down.  This just cements my belief that we need to get off the silly reporting date based numbers and get on an accurate count of actual sales pronto.   Luckily that is almost ready.

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Nov 6 Market Update

Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Nov 2017
Nov
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 83  599
New Listings 157  786
Active Listings 1909 1815
Sales to New Listings  53%  76%
Sales Projection
Months of Inventory 3.0

20% below last year’s daily sales rate but that doesn’t mean much since we only had the tail end of last week in this week’s numbers.  Will require another week or two to determine whether the stress test is pulling buyers forward, or whether the increasing number of lenders that are already applying it will start to put a damper on sales.

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October 30 Market Update

Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Oct 2017
Oct
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 146  289  453  601  735
New Listings 265  479  698  922  904
Active Listings 1990 1989 1978 1982  1938
Sales to New Listings  55%  60%  65%  65%  81%
Sales Projection  565  661  624
Months of Inventory  2.6

Running about 15% behind last year’s sales rate.   Today we saw another 36 sales entered (some of those being from up to two weeks ago) and we’ll see likely another 30 tomorrow for about 660 this month.

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Oct 23 Market Update

Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Oct 2017
Oct
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 146  289  453  735
New Listings 265  479  698  904
Active Listings 1990 1989 1978  1938
Sales to New Listings  55%  60%  65%  81%
Sales Projection  565  661
Months of Inventory  2.6

A surprisingly strong week at 164 sales which is 20 more than the first two weeks of the month.  I wonder if the stress test is pushing some people to jump in before they can’t qualify anymore?   A 25% buying power reduction is nothing to sneeze at.  We started out the month at a sales rate 30% lower than this time last year, now we are just off 10%.

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Oct 16 Market Update

Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Oct 2017
Oct
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 146  289  735
New Listings 265  479  904
Active Listings 1990 1989  1938
Sales to New Listings  55%  60%  81%
Sales Projection  565
Months of Inventory  2.6

143 sales for the week which is about the same as the 146 in the first week.   However the year over year drop has moderated significantly, now down 23% compared to this time last year.   That sales rate puts us on track for about 565 sales for the month which would be exactly the 10 year average of 567 for October.

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Big sales decline to start off October

Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Oct 2017
Oct
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 146  735
New Listings 265  904
Active Listings 1990  1938
Sales to New Listings  55%  81%
Sales Projection
Months of Inventory  2.6

Big decline in sales rate from last year.  We are now at identical inventory levels, but sales are down by a third (16 sales/day compared to 24/day this week last year).

Looking at just residential sales for the same week (Sunday to Saturday before thanksgiving) we can see the decline is even more dramatic.

SFH sales off 50%, condos down 38%*.

* Note this is as of 9PM Oct 10, some sales not yet reported may still be added to last week’s numbers.

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September 18 Market Update

Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Sep 2017
Sep
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 183  314  781
New Listings 321  598  1050
Active Listings 1949 2011  2061
Sales to New Listings  57%  53%  74%
Sales Projection  616
Months of Inventory  2.6

Sales continuing to weaken relative to last year as we are now 21% below the rate of this time last year (first week we were down 16%).   As fall rapidly approaches, we are seeing an increasing number of sellers either give up their unrealistic price expectations by cancelling listings or not renewing them (78 last week) or drop prices (95 of those) to dry to entice the late house hunters.

Inventory is also up and has cracked 2000.   That is very low historically speaking, but this is a time it should be dropping, not rising.   That means the market slowdown is overcoming the normal seasonal trend.

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September 11 Market Update

Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Sep 2017
Sep
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 183  781
New Listings 321  1050
Active Listings 1949  2061
Sales to New Listings  57%  74%
Sales Projection
Months of Inventory  2.6

A weak start to the month compared to last year.   We are down 16% in sales while new listings are about the same as last year.   We are still cruising along at 5% less total inventory but the difference is becoming immaterial.

It also doesn’t tell the whole story.  Looking at the areas most people are interested in (residential listings in the core, westshore, and peninsula), total inventory as well as inventory for detached houses and condos are up.   Only the number of townhouse listings are down by 15 from last September.

Meanwhile comparing the same days of September to last year, sales are down substantially for all those categories except condos.

It’s not a lot of days to compare, but it’s pretty clear that the low inventory is not the reason that sales are down from last year, and they are slumping because of a reduced demand at current prices.   We should expect market conditions to continue to improve for buyers overall and especially in the detached market going forward.

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Aug 28 Market Update

Still on vacation but back in town.  Good to see the blog humming along without my meddling.   Interesting discussion of full service vs mere postings in the last thread.   I think this topic deserves a lot more attention and analysis, both on the selling side (mere postings) and on the buying side (commission offered).   Is there evidence that the level of commission both on the buying and on the selling side is correlated with positive outcomes for buyers or sellers?   It’s a topic that much of the industry wishes would never be mentioned.

I recently made my info and brokerage more prominent on the right because the Real Estate Council said it wasn’t displayed as required in the advertising standards.  Point is they generally don’t come looking unless they get a complaint and I’m sure any attempt to talk about the holy grail of commissions will unleash some more.   Should be interesting!

For now though, here are the weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

Aug 2017
Aug
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 157  322  483  644
883
New Listings 222  431  676  911
1120
Active Listings 1932 1915  1942  1951
2094
Sales to New Listings  71%  75%  71%  71%
79%
Sales Projection  777  750  750
Months of Inventory 2.4

Inventory continues to creep up in a time when it would usually be flat or decreasing.   Not a lot yet, but something to watch.   There’s always a drop of listings at the end of the month as the dregs expire, so we should expect to finish with about 1900 active listings or some 9% less than this time last year.  That’s despite listing cancellations up as the leftovers from spring that didn’t cut it get stale.

 

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