May 22 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

May 2017
May
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 193 436 698
1289
New Listings 361 692 1013
1423
Active Listings 1797 1854 1855
2406
Sales to New Listings  53% 63% 69%
91%
Sales Projection 889 940 966
Months of Inventory

1.9

About a week left in the month and at this pace of new listings we will fall short of last May’s total new listings which doesn’t help the supply crunch.    After some decent inventory gains in the last weeks (+72, +73, +57), we were back to flat in the last week at 1855 properties on the market.   Last year this time there were 2431.

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May 15 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

May 2017
May
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 193 436
1289
New Listings 361 692
1423
Active Listings 1797 1854
2406
Sales to New Listings  53% 63%
91%
Sales Projection 889 812
Months of Inventory

1.9

A quarter less sales than this time last year, and a quarter less inventory.   Pretty interesting to see the months of inventory tracking last year’s performance so closely.   We are scraping the bottom of the barrel here, and despite increasing reports of more new listings hitting the market, the market measures are not showing any cooling down in aggregate.

It is true that individual market segments are cooling.  For example, there were 1.85 months of inventory for detached homes in the core in April compared to 1.06 a year ago.   This will be something to watch going forward but so far these are being counteracted by other market segments that are more active this year than last (such as condos and townhouses).   At this point the market cannot get more active, but we’ll need a bit more data to determine if it is going to back off across the board or just bounce around the bottom for a while.. Continue reading

May 8 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

May 2017
May
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 193
1289
New Listings 361
1423
Active Listings 1797
2406
Sales to New Listings  53%
91%
Sales Projection 889
Months of Inventory

1.9

Exactly the same rate of new listings as this week last year, but 31% fewer sales.   Primarily still because last year a potential buyer had 750 additional properties to choose from, so the ratio of viable candidates to the dregs was higher.      However this is the first month I’ve seen where sales are down more than listings.   What to watch for is if months of inventory start increasing compared to last year, then we will know the market is backing off the record pace of last year.   So far they are just about identical. Continue reading

Taxation without representation

is tyranny.   But what about taxation with excessive representation?  After all with 13 municipalities and the CRD we can’t argue there isn’t enough representation going on here, but how much is it all costing us in taxes?   Thanks to open data initiatives, we can see which municipalities have kept a lid on tax increases and which ones have let loose the dogs of bureaucracy.

Assuming you lived in a representative house in each of the municipalities from 2006 to 2016, how much would your taxes have increased?

The winner by a mile is North Saanich where taxes haven’t even kept up with inflation.  Of the core municipalities, Esquimalt has done the best job keeping tax increases moderate while the big loser is Saanich with a 56% jump in 10 years.   All of them hiked taxes and fees much faster than inflation over the last decade.

Here are the 2016 values for all the municipalities.

MunicipalitiesTax Rate ($/$1000 value)Representative House ValueResidential Taxes
Central Saanich6.4821$563,548$4,376
Colwood6.7903$471,039$3,418
Esquimalt7.8249$499,924$3,912
Highlands6.1517$607,913$3,740
Langford5.9665$445,337$2,657
Metchosin5.3625$544,041$2,917
North Saanich4.6147$751,568$4,077
Oak Bay6.0601$948,491$6,918
Saanich6.4072$624,581$5,125
Sidney5.9956$493,209$3,826
Sooke6.9408$359,913$3,436
Victoria6.8297$595,222$5,012
View Royal5.8309$547,538$3,512

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April 18 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

April 2017
Apr
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 255 464
1286
New Listings 419 681
1590
Active Listings 1661 1652
2594
Sales to New Listings  61% 68%
81%
Sales Projection 990 875
Months of Inventory

2.0

A significant dip in the sales rate last week, that’s probably due to the long weekend, which in a government town is 4 days long so we only really had 4 business days in there.   I would expect quite a few sales to pile up today.   We are approaching a third fewer sales than this time last year, which along with the approximately third less inventory makes conditions quite similar to last year.

Inventory is down from last week again.  Inventory gains were very low last year as well, but the difference was that sales were 32% higher and we had some more properties on the market to cushion the blow.  This year we will be moving into the fall market with essentially nothing for sale.   Compared to a more normal year like 2015, we have added only about a quarter as many properties to the market in the spring season as we usually do.


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April 10 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

April 2017
Apr
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 255
1286
New Listings 419
1590
Active Listings 1661
2594
Sales to New Listings  61%
81%
Sales Projection 990
Months of Inventory

2.0

Holy moly 470 comments on that last post.   That’ll teach me to leave the same post up all week.

Thanks to everyone that came out for the HHV meetup last Friday.  Pleasure meeting you all.  As the event tagline promised, there was beer, housing, and lots of bullshit.    Let’s do it again sometime.

We are now getting extremely close to the conditions of last year.   While we still have some 36% fewer properties on the market, sales are down 23% as well, so the months of inventory are about the same, and will likely match last year by the end of the month.   We are also no longer posting stronger sales/list ratios compared to last year.   It seems there is a limit to the level of activity that can be sustained, and this is it.

Marko Juras mentioned at the meetup that activity is down somewhat in multiple bid situations.   Places are still going for big over-asks, but now there might be half as many bids as last year.   Buyer exhaustion?  Or just a response to the higher asking prices?
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March 27 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

March 2017
Mar
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 107 312 532 757
1121
New Listings 209 484 740 990
1445
Active Listings 1581 1614 1604 1573
2618
Sales to New Listings  51% 64% 72% 76%
78%
Sales Projection 852 896 930
Months of Inventory

3.3

I feel like a broken record every week talking about inventory and how it shouldn’t be falling this time of year.   But it is, and I still can’t get over how unusual that is.   If we don’t add significant inventory in the spring, then what happens come July when inventory usually starts dropping for the rest of the year?   I can’t imagine that it can be reduced much more than it already is.

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March 20 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

March 2017
Mar
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 107 312 532
1121
New Listings 209 484 740
1445
Active Listings 1581 1614 1604
2618
Sales to New Listings  51% 64% 72%
78%
Sales Projection 852 896
Months of Inventory

3.3

Incredibly, inventory actually fell from last week which is unbelievable given the time of year.    That said comparing to last year to date, we are slightly ahead at  111 listings added so far this year compared to 80 in the same period a year ago.  Still way off a more normal year like 2015.      

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March 13 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

March 2017
Mar
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 107 312
1121
New Listings 209 484
1445
Active Listings 1581 1614
2618
Sales to New Listings  51% 64%
78%
Sales Projection 852
Months of Inventory

3.3

Sales/list ratio still lagging last year significantly.   This will be the first month where we see really significant year over year drops in sales.   Months of inventory is still less than last year because we have 37% fewer properties on the market, but that will soon equalize. Continue reading

Feb 27 Market Update

Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB.

February 2017
Feb
 2016
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Unconditional Sales 119 285 439 624
772
New Listings 152 344  572 908
1160
Active Listings 1502 1498 1537 1555
2562
Sales to New Listings  78% 83% 77% 77%
67%
Sales Projection 748 718 694
Months of Inventory

3.3

Inventory is gradually building up, but still 40% below this time last year.   No surprise when we’ve only added 39 listings in February (last year we added 197).

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