December: Signs of life to end the year
A brief update with the December month-end stats and charts.
Generally, not much happens in December, and on the surface of it, the end of 2023 was no exception. Sales were up only 3% from a year ago, and new listings were up a similarly small 6%. 329 sales puts us in the 23rd percentile for the last 30 years, and it’s certainly nothing to write home about in terms of market activity. But given we saw the market wake up last spring, it’s worth keeping a close eye on it again this year to see if the same thing happens in light of the sizeable retreat in the bond market yields and associated fixed rates.
Sure enough once you remove the normal seasonal patterns, activity picked up slightly in December. It’s worth remembering that seasonal adjustment gets a little dicey in the slower months but we may be on a positive trend here.
Along with a pickup in sales, December also saw a bit of reduction in new listings activity. While up from last year, it’s up less than we saw earlier in the fall.
Slightly more sales and slightly fewer new listings means inventory didn’t grow a lot from November. Remember that while inventory dropped in December as it always does, what we are interested in is the underlying trend after we remove normal seasonality.
Market balance improved quite a bit from the November reading as a result. While the 47% is slightly lower (aka cooler) than the 50% in December 2022, it’s not that far off. This is still buyers market territory by this measure, but let’s see how the spring develops.
Months of inventory also recovered from November and October. Months of inventory is pointing to the low end of a balanced market.
The sales to new list ratio is a little closer to reflecting the on the ground “feel” of the market, which is still very sluggish. But what matters in the longer run is the months of inventory. For a truly sustainable buyers market we still need it quite a bit higher than it is now, and right now it’s warming again. I expect it to enter sellers market territory again and a stabilization of prices or mild increase in the spring, though I don’t think it will get as active as it was last spring.
Prices little changed since November for houses and condos, with some price weakness both in the medians and sales to assessed value ratios for townhouses. However with only a couple dozen townhouse sales in December I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on that. Note the chart below shows 3 month rolling averages.
With assessments roughly unchanged in 2024, I expect most detached properties to start out selling below assessed value to start the year.
In January, so far we are starting out tracing last year’s activity very closely. Expect a rapid ramp in new inventory in the coming weeks as we pull out of the holiday quiet period.
If you haven’t already left your market conditions for 2024, you can do that here.
Shows as cancelled
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/01/15/failure-to-launch/
Places I’ve seen that are selling, aren’t reducing prices, but selling for $75k less than list or more.
Anyone know if the new build at 1346 Kings rd finally sold?
Isn’t that exactly what you’re doing with suggesting people buy houses?
#337).
You can In fact approach a would be seller who Is not yet signed to a realtor and make an offer. Developers do this all the time. The would be sellers often welcome this offer with open arms…since they would just as soon not pay the commission themselves. All you need Is a lawyer…You’ll need one anyway. What needs to happen Is a local website dedicated on a solid local buyer/seller Platform with a ratings system from current/ previous users of the platform. Kind of like a feedback score would be left for the sellers to view but also open to other potential buyers to view. Feedback would have to be moderated and justified with contact Info prior to posting so It wouldn’t be abused…It would more than likely grow legs…Considering It would save tens of thousands of dollars.
Perhaps this Is what House Hunt Victoria should be all about.
This is an over-simplification of what is happening. BC housing hasn’t seen a reliable yearly increase in prices over the past decade. Instead we have seen 2 sentiment driven bull cycles (2014-2015; 2020-2022) that significantly over-price homes, followed by periods of stagnation. Real home prices (inflation-adjusted) have fallen during both subsequent periods (2016-2019; and 2022-now).
After adjusting for inflation, real home prices have fallen since the peak.
After adjusting for inflation, CASH.TO his nearly matched, and now this year is beating inflation.
Therefore, my downpayment savings are increasing in real terms, and home prices are falling in real terms.
That is the present. But yeah, I agree, if I wait too long and miss the next cycle I could lose out. I’d rather take that risk than buy a dump.
And you know what? I sure wish I was in a place to buy a property in 2013 or even in 2020, but I wasn’t and so I have to live with that and make the best of a lousy situation. It turns out that means even an average joe like me needs to become an amateur economist to try and find the best deal I can before the next speculation-driven bull run.
TBH, Marko, I didn’t mean it as a personal offense. But no, I’m not blaming realtors for North American consumerism.
And yes, since you raised the topic I am absolute do blame realtors for a number of things. Like, for example, the fact that I can’t directly access RE sold data in the city of Victoria without a real estate license (admittedly, Leo helps with that by running this site).
Also, the fact that we still has de facto percentage based RE commissions that must be paid for both the buyer and seller agent, and because of how these fees are baked into the transaction (often with legally binding agreements that the seller signs), there’s no simple way to bargain the realtor fees out of the transaction directly with the seller for a price reduction.
(The same principle applies to how it’s nearly impossible to opt out of credit card fees when shopping at the vast majority of businesses, even if you offer to pay cash — they’re baked in to the price.)
I’m still waiting for the legal challenge on this non-competitive fee practice to drop here that the US just had.
I’m also waiting on a legal action to require publicly available real estate sales data to be made available nationally. Not holding my breath on that, as the RE agencies are fighting tooth and nail against it.
So, no offense to you personally, but the real estate industry is scamming us hard. And, I absolutely think that realtors have a huge incentive to convince people to transact more often than is necessary for family well-being.
The predictions need not conflict.
As we’ve seen in recent times, the poor can be in hardship while the rich are building great wealth.
#333).
This tells me universities had better step In line and get back to the fundamentals…Like what can these students In this day and age sell to make a good living. It has become a complete joke… Its no wonder we are not attracting International students. Quantum computing , AI rings a bell. We have enough Dentists, Doctors are leaving BC In droves, ICBC with their no fault Insurance kind of took the fun out of the game for the Lawyers, Young engineers In this city are lucky to get an Internship. Please don’t tell me marine biology.
Ontario universities and colleges have been subject to a tuition freeze and government funding freeze. This inherently results in a precarious position, relying on foreign students to make up the shortfall.
https://www.queensjournal.ca/analysis-queens-universitys-financial-woes-are-a-symptom-of-a-wider-issue/
Not a surprise with how poorly most universities are administered. It is really rather hilarious how institutions of higher learning are not agile enough to adapt with the times. Maybe we can add the university business model to that of newspapers, Eatons, Sears and well soon the The Bay.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/kingston-ontario-queens-university-could-go-bankrupt
Possibly coming to college town near you? It is one way to cut down on rental demand.
OK, got it. A bunch of realtors are saying price went up over the last year. And they are predicting a hot spring market now.
Inflation was 6% last year at this time and 3% now. It may not reach 2% any time soon. The drop in interest rates will be very slow for the next 6 – 9 months.
#329).
But the prices exploded higher to levels that were completely unimaginable…It made ordinary people millionaires…Tax free BTW.
I am not a bull…I’m a halibut…Flat. I see a little bit of an upward trajectory in the short term…5 years.
@Max “That never happened”
It did crush RE for a while as bank liquidity suffered as well as unemployment numbers. RE didnt really start recovering until 2012/2013. Even so, houses were way cheaper before the 08 recession compared to wages than they are now. It’s a way bigger bubble built on way more debt. It has a longer way to fall… I’m going to avoid the FOMO that the bulls and realtors are trying to drum up for now.
Quick edit: Looks like the 08 recession hit us around 2010 and didnt start to recover until later like 2014/2015. It did very little to the price gains that had accrued until 2010 . https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/
I’m still bearish on economy. I think that those who purchase in near term will be punished as BoC’s inflation fight extends outwards.
#327) I have a few questions here. STR are a minimum of 90 days In your primary residence…Is that correct? Who regulates this tenancy? Is It the residential tenancy branch? After the agreed 90 days of tenancy have ended and the suite Is now vacant… Can the homeowner of the primary residence reset the rent of the suite to the current market value without issue?
I would assume since the homeowner would be following the rules set forth with the STR… One would still be able to advertise without issue on the Air BnB website?
Asking rents jump 8.6% in December to hit record $2,178 on average: report
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/asking-rents-jump-8-6-in-december-to-hit-record-2-178-on-average-report-1.6726484
#325).
It was supposed to be the end of the financial world back In 2008…That never happened…Lol at yourself. Do you really think they want to bring this economic structure they have In place down to Its knees? Even the powers that be have to live here. They need the lights to be on, They need the service workers, They need the gondolas up at Whistler to be running, They need the Hotels to be cleaned by staff. They need other things to…but I won’t talk about that here.
Lol at everyone predicting hot spring market here while BoC predicting recession to increase rapidly over 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgMndGv191E
#333).
I think market activity will take off. The BoC made It very clear the powers they possess…People know this now. IMHO…It will be a very favourable sellers market this spring.
Let’s see what happens if it looks like market activity takes off. There have been some articles out there that Toronto and Vancouver have lifted off combined with a number of economists stating the renewal cliff is actually a non-issue. We do know that Tiff and the BoC acted in response to the spring market strength last year and felt they were behind in the response last year. Maybe they will just jump ahead on rate bump if early numbers stay strong.
#321).
Did Microsoft, Apple, And Viagra change the world?
Almost certainly. Last January was dead slow.
Let me put it this way, I think sales will ramp up faster this year compared to second half of January last year. There are places selling right now that have been on the market 3-4 months with no price reductions.
#318).
That can certainly be on the table. They are just far too young right now for real estate…19 and 15.
#318)
Do you suggest we store our wealth In CAD? Let me guess, you have gold and silver ingots In your home safe?
Max , wouldn’t your kids be better off if u sucked say 300 grand out of your house and gave it to the kids so that they can buy
And bitcoin investors think bitcoin is going to change the world.
#315). I also think multi generational SFH will become a big thing on South Vancouver Island moving forward…especially In desirable areas. If one already has the sq/ft In house…I think It will become very clear that It only makes sense to keep the generated Income via employment from each Individual family member In house working together as a team. I have 1100 sq/ft down stairs, finished, vacant, and doing absolutely nothing except for looking pretty. Like charge each of my boys $500 per month in contributions towards the household while they each have 550sq/ft of living space… And they get the entire house when my Wife and I pass.
My kids could literally just go to work and bank all their money for years…stuff their RRSP, stuff their TSFA. IMHO.
#314).
I think that you are correct that this Is defiantly bad news If you are In the market for a SFH. At the same time I think of my Son and his friends. They frame a SFH off the foundation In 10 days. Now that the SFH market has slowed, his crew has adapted and they are now framing multi unit builds ranging from 3 – 6 months. If you have a SFH… I think your nuts to sell It…right now anyway. IMHO.
Yes BC starts of SFH in 2023 down 25% YOY. And that’s before the ending of SFH-only zoning . We should see a further collapse of 2024 SFH starts, and more SFH tear downs. And if we do, we can blame the BC government’s bad upzoning scheme for that.
SFH remains the preferred dwelling type for 70% of house hunters. We are making more hotdogs (condos) but people still want steak (SFH). And we’re making less steak (SFH). If you too are looking for steak (SFH), you should expect the price of steak (SFH) will rise.
#313). IMHO, I just don’t think there Is any future money left on the table for someone buying an existing older SFH. Even In Langford Infill Is huge, what was once two houses Is now 24 condos. Land assembly deals…rows of existing houses put together as one big land assembly for future multi unit builds. Even an existing older duplex out here Is gold, at least It comes with a reasonable size of dirt. Everything built these days Is multi unit. SFH has become out of reach and will continue to become further and further out of reach with each passing day. IMHO.
—- StatCan reports CPI inflation up 3.1 % YOY. (Not 5%)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231219/dq231219a-eng.htm?indid=3665-1&indgeo=0
—- VREB reports SFH and condo median prices up 2.9% and SFH up 2.1% in 2023
https://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseAndSummary.pdf
2023 seems to be a year where prices rose very close to inflation, which is my point.
Went to a couple of open houses last week , realtors pushing the narrative that interest rate cuts are coming and this could be the bottom . So I would imagine a lil fomo is creeping back in , and u couldn’t blame folks . In fact it could be fomb, fear of missing the bottom lol
Tighten up as in the months of inventory will decline, pushing us back into more of a sellers market. December was 5.2 months of inventory, which is the low end of balanced. I don’t expect it to be as active as it was last spring, when we hit 2.3 months of inventory in May, but I wouldn’t be surprised at 3-4.
Bidding wars will definitely increase because they always do. In the last 2 weeks 5% of properties went above the asking price. We’ll likely return to about 15% in the spring. Will we get back to north of 50% like we had 2 years ago? Not this year.
Then why is the next door unit down 10% in price while the inflation averaged 5% over the last 12 months?
It is has 200 square feet less space and only one bathroom – not two, and is ground floor with someone above in an incredibly run down looking building across from a bottle return depot and not “just next door”. Also no WD. Not comparable imo and it is going to be over that price.
It sounds like you are happy with your decision. Prices don’t currently seem to be appreciating so might be okay financially vs. buying as long as you are not evicted for owner use if it is not a purpose-built rental and prices don’t start to go up again. Hard to predict this.
Sorry Leo, what do you mean by “tighten up” in the context of what Marko said about a perhaps return to bidding wars and interest rates? Thanks!
This is normal though. Sales will ramp up quickly in second half of January as they always do.
Market will definitely tighten up in the spring.
You are blaming mass consumerism in North America on realtors? You think I care if a young couple that I help buy a two bedroom condo decides to raise the family in the condo and not to upgrade to the “American dream” SFH? I could car less, in fact, I would be like damn good for you for making it work and not giving into societally norms of SFH living in Sooke.
Everyone tends to blame realtors for everything. Bidding wars, blame realtors…..so what exactly is happening now that there are no bidding wars? Realtors all went on vacation? Prices going up, blame realtors. Prices now flat/slight down, once again, we all went on vacation?
plus lots of AOs out there as well not yet reflected in the numbers. Just hope interest rates don’t come down quickly this year as we could swing back to bidding wars unfortunately.
Btw, new VREB policy. As listing agents when we have multiple offers each offer needs to be documented (not the terms/price, but the brokerage that submitted the offer and at what time) and then the seller needs to sign the spreadsheet and the spreadsheet with the seller’s signature needs to be sent to each unsuccessful buyer’s agent within 24 hours.
Month to date numbers:
Sales: 95 (up 37% over this time last year)
New lists: 443 (up 25%)
Inventory: 2087 (up 25%)
I believe that affordability will worsen, especially for nice near-new (10 yr old) homes like you’re renting now “in one of the best neighbourhoods”. Inflation alone (~3%) may increase the price of a $600k home by about $18k per year. Negating your savings.
—- If I’m wrong and prices fall, you’re smart to wait.
—- If I’m right, you’ll be paying a lot more in the future to buy that same “over-priced asset”
I’ve been saying the same thing on HHV for 6+ years, as have many others here.
Zack, I think you’re accurate about 840 Craigflower road, that complex has a higher than average turn over rate which means if the landlord were to charge the average rent per square foot rate then the landlord would experience higher vacancy and bad debts rate. To keep that unit rented then a landlord would have to charge a rent at the lower end of the rental range.
That can be calculated using a gross rent multiplier that is based on the unit’s market value. The discount from average rent would be in the $300 to $500 per month range to secure a long term tenant in order to reduce the turn over rate of the unit.
$559,000 divided by a GRM of 18.5 divided by 12 months which is about $2,500 a month.
Oak Bay made the (CBC) news today:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/oak-bay-housing-mandate-1.7082109
“But exclusive Oak Bay may be getting a lot more inclusive in the near future. That is, if it finds a way to meet the provincially mandated target of adding 664 net new housing units in the next five years.
Officials in the predominantly single-family home municipality don’t think it will be easy…Traditionally, in Oak Bay, it’s been close to impossible to build any kind of multi-family housing,
… Some just don’t feel they can make the targets or just don’t have the interest. “
I should also point out that I currently save over $1,500 per month in non-recoverable costs by renting my unit, plus I get access to a dual TFHSA allows me to save much more efficiently than buying the property. The identical unit next door has discounted by about 10%, and still won’t sell. That’s not tax-free equity growth, it’s a capital loss. I might have bought it if it was priced correctly, but why throw away free money to purchase an over-priced asset?
No way. Here’s a comparable rental just next door, slightly smaller, same number of bedrooms but more recently renovated for $2,400: https://victoria.craigslist.org/apa/d/esquimalt-bed-ba-duplex-ground-floor/7702653810.html
Let’s get something straight here, this is not how home equity appreciation works. Telling people to buy a place that they don’t want in order to “get on the property ladder” ASAP is a terrible idea if it means squeezing into a unit they don’t want to live in.
This specific unit is the cheapest 3 bedroom in the entire region for a reason. It has very low maintenance fees which usually means it is in significant disrepair. It will likely have a large number of extra maintenance and special assessment costs coming in the near future that will chip away at this equity. The realtor fees and land transfer taxes will eat into that equity further. And when the buyer wants to move into the place they really want to live in, they have to pay those fees again.
Sure, in a world where home prices rise 10% per year, it makes sense to jump at any property with a roof and running hot water, but in any sane world it is far more sensible to purchase the property you actually want to live in for at least 5-10 years, when you have the funds to afford it.
The “Property ladder” concept only works if people purchase homes they actually want to live in. In this world where people are encouraged buy a condo and then upsize to a starter home and then a larger house by moving every 3 years is just aimed at enriching realtors by increasing the frequency of their sales and thereby driving up their fees.
It’s not magic, but buying one of those units IS homeownership.
It would rent for about 3k a month I believe – 3 bed 2 bath in suite laundry and doesn’t seem to need Renos?
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26400818/10-840-craigflower-rd-esquimalt-kinsmen-park
Yes there is. I don’t believe your math is correct.
You have to start somewhere and over time you will experience appreciation and equity growth tax free. May be slower than before – who knows. You have to live somewhere and rents will go up over time too.
Patrick, what are you on about again. There is no “property ladder”. The question is whether you can finance a home for the same or less non-recoverable costs than you can rent a comparable property.
it’s great to hear you can find a 3 bedroom 50-year old unit with 1200 sqft that needs major renovations for under $600k, but after accounting for maintenance, taxes and interest, that place costs nearly $3k in expenses alone. That place would rent for perhaps $2200 per month. The small additional sum going towards equity on that mortgage is roughly what my family puts into our TFHSA each year.
Meanwhile The other units you list would cost as much or more in non-recoverable costs than my current rental which is only 10 years old and located in one of the best neighbourhoods in town.
So unless you’re buying one of these units banking on another bull run to drive up the prices of every 50 year old condo/townhome in the area, buying one of those units isn’t some magic path to homeownership.
“Insider contacts” barrister lol.
https://imageserver.fltplan.com/afd/Canada/17JUN2021/CYWH-1282.PDF
I worked in the Hyack terminal for about 5 years. Can’t say I remember planes ever taking off towards the city.
Hi, Deryk, hope all is going well with you. I am not seeing a lot of new listings coming on yet but it is still early in the year.
Wonderful day last week with the grandkids at the Getty Villa.
Cheers, and I will be happy to buy you lunch in the next couple of weeks.
VicRE, you might be right but where did you get the information about what is their problem? Has there been more written somewhere or do you know someone at the company?
I am pretty sure that it will not cause any major changes to this project but I am amazed how bent out of shape some people are getting over it. I actually think it is a good place to put up towers but I really dont understand why one of them is only ten floors tall. I actually rented a unit in Shutters many years ago; seemed ideal for the nearly dead and the newly divorced.
The towers should be taller but there also should be a commitment to have stores included, especially, a grocery store, drugstore and one of the banks. There really should be a decent mall included for this community, In terms of public amenities, the developer should provide a library and gym facilities for the public. Happy to give another five floors on each building to pay for those.
Warren, I am visiting with one of the boys and the grandkids. The grandkids are absolutely great. Everything is a new adventure with them. Warren, you sound like another grumpy old man, maybe it is just winter doing it for you.
LMAO
Arthur , I’m guessing you’re the only one on here that knows anything about aircraft
I can see how it is annoying to have people with zero idea of what is happening posting misinformed crap when he actually has the correct info. Harbour air has a problem because they may have to alter their flight path in certain situations which would impact their on time performance and schedules. It is not a safety issue, it’s operational in nature.
Three of the properties in Sooke our family had an eye on have sold.
Been on the market for some time, but they have sold.
Not sure what that means for everything but it is what it is.
Not a lot of new listings.
Yes, Marko – do become more effervescent and joyous. Here’s some more from your joy-coach…
“So how is the weather in Victoria today? Cold here today and it might drop below sixty tonight. Nice sunny day though”
Shortly to be followed by “my Rockland mansion” and “Switzerland” and “my Bay Street colleagues” – in the most encouraging and inclusive manner, of course.
Me: Hey here’s some people asking about airplanes, maybe I can help!
Ah, nevermind then.
Marko, you are starting to sound old and angry, not a great look. If you got kids you should spend some time with them, they might open up some joy.
They fly deHavilland Beavers and Otters, two of the most epic bush planes of all time, that can land and take off in postage stamp size lakes with a canoe strapped to one float and a woodstove on the other. Pretty sure they will still be able to land and take off safely in Victoria Harbour.
Patrick , nice try but I think people are looking for new and cheaper lol
Why don’t you guys just take four minutes to listen to the Harbour Air representative before commenting? The meeting is posted on the City of Victoria website and Harbour Air rep talks (didn’t bother to come in person, just phoned in) at the 2 hr 48 minute mark and says absolutely nothing useful. She reads off a script and uses a bunch of ambiguous words and basically conclusion was “we have concerns and should have been consulted.” I see 10+ planes take off and land from my unit every day and I call BS until a pilot that flies this route calls me out and gives me some numbers on how many flights per year would be impacted (would not be able to land/take off). I never see planes taking off in this direction or land (and I’ve flown Harbour Air 20+ times personally)….they would need to clear two existing large buildings on Kimta that are on the water.
Harbour Air would have had a lot more credibility if someone other than their PR person actually came to the meeting and gave some specifics as to what the concerns are. Is the 29 story tower the problem? If that is cut down to 27 stories is it still a problem even thought it would make it shorter than the Promontory? What exactly is their concern and how does it tangibly impact them? Why have they never spoken to the developer in the last 20 years?
Use some common sense, if this was a serious issue the CEO of Harbour Air would have actually come to the meeting not a phone in reading of a script PR person. I think they are just pissed they weren’t consulted.
Finally, if it was an issue so what? We just banned Airbnb which everyone is in massive support so what tells me is people care about housing more than tourism. Wouldn’t it make sense to give housing priority over plane service volumes?
The 4+ hour meeting was so idiotic it is beyond comprehension. There is literally a list of over 100 stupid things said, someone should compile a list….”When I retired I came to Victoria from Toronto 2.5 years ago and bought a condo in Songhees and I am not in support of the rezoning.” Great, you got yours, now f everyone else. You literally pulled supply of the table and are not in favour of more. Aka Leo’s hot dog example, you crashed a party you weren’t part of to start and now you don’t want more hot dogs made for everyone who is left hungry 🙂
Patrick, maybe one of those places you pointed out would be a good place for one of your children?
With the affordable family townhouse examples (below) the first one ($559k) with 20% down, $600/month strata , $200/month prop tax and a mortgage of $447k would require a combined household income of $105k to qualify (pass the stress test) . That’s two jobs @ $26.25/hour. Average Victoria salary is more than that @ 26.65 so that means an average two income salary can afford a (low-end) 3 bdr family townhouse.
Stress test calculator: https://itools-ioutils.fcac-acfc.gc.ca/MQ-HQ/MQCalc-EAPHCalc-eng.aspx
It is not a safety nor a Nav Canada concern, what it does is potentially make it more of a hassle for harbour air on approaches to land in adverse weather or busy harbour conditions. Uninformed people seriously need to stop assuming and stfu on topics they know nothing about.
The last two townhouses in your example have monthly strata between 500 to 750, plus property tax. So likely looking at close to 800 to 1000 more a month compared to rent if they can even get the mortgage.
The question is: what does Victoria council think about Harbour Air’s concerns? Are the latter’s concerns (in combination with other concerns voiced by the public) significant enough to delay project approval?
Who knows if it’s a real concern or not, but if there was one role for government oversight it’s simple safety checks.
Developer: hey what about a 30 story building
City: Sorry, it’s in the flightpath.
Developer: Ok.
No one would have any problem with that.
Instead the city spends years talking about nonsense like how shorter buildings might mitigate microclimate issues and “support community stability” https://x.com/LeoSpalteholz/status/1696363356373008427?s=20
Again, I doubt there’s a real problem here, but if there was it would be an epic failure from the city.
I didn’t listen to the meeting but I could make an educated guess. They have water ‘runways’ in the harbour and the preferred directions IIRC are to depart southwest and land northeast, this helps with noise abatement and avoids flight over buildings. The roundhouse location might affect their ability to safely overshoot from a northeasterly landing as it is not safe to make sharp turns at low altitudes and speeds.
When the wind exceeds a certain strength they must take off and land into wind for safety reasons which is why you’ll then see them arriving or departing over downtown. If they are objecting I’d say it’s for safety reasons not for inconvenience.
If you think it occurs to builders to give the airport or transport canada a call before they start you might be surprised, a lot of times they find out when the cranes go up and then there’s some rapid negotiating. There’s some interestingly shaped roofs northeast of CYYJ for that reason.
The point is that there are still some affordable 3bdr homes for families, not that the median home is affordable. The homes that are affordable are going to be below average homes, which is what is meant by the “lowest rung on the ladder”,. The “median” home is the middle rung on the ladder, which isn’t affordable to first time buyers, but will likely be affordable to them later in life when they have equity.
For example, here are three bedroom townhouses listed in the $550-$680k range, suitable for families. (Burnside, gorge, esquimault)
A $559k purchase with 20% down is a $447k mortgage which is $2,664 per month (5.25% mortgage).
And, assuming 5.25 rate, 55% of all of those payments (over 25 years) , ~$1,500 per month is forced savings, so only $1,160 is interest payment).
There are likely HHVers paying more than $2,664 in rent.
Here’s 3 in the range $559 – $679k
I consider these affordable and suitable for families.
—- 3bdr townhouse -esquimault $559k https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26400818/10-840-craigflower-rd-esquimalt-kinsmen-park
—- 3bdr townhouse burnside $649k https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26387757/103-3048-washington-ave-victoria-burnside
—- 3bd townhouse Gorge, 2120 sq ft. $679k https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26386048/234-gorge-rd-e-victoria-burnside
Developers and pro housing hanger on’s were pushing studios and and 1 bedrooms cause that’s where the dollars were . I would guess still is , as anything larger is not affordable and not what investors want
Even that kind of direct comparison probably under-estimates the cost premium (higher cost per square foot) of family-sizes condos.
There are exceptionally few condos with more than 2 beds in the city, and typically to get a condo with a comparable number of bedrooms to a townhouse or SFH, at the same price point, you’re almost certainly getting less square footage.
In other words, condos usually cost more per square foot than townhomes or SFHs. The only exception is older condos with huge maintenance fees.
All of that is to say I strongly agree with you that it makes zero sense to compare the average condo price with the average detached home price and to declare that the relatively lower price of a tiny, single-bed condo somehow makes the condo segment “affordable” for families.
Personally I doubt that the airport should be an insurmountable challenge to this development but I am really unclear what the problem might be.
Best that I could figure out so far is that Transport Canada can regulate anything and everything that they deem might affect an airport or its smooth functioning. I am just guessing after a quick read of their mandate so I could easily be wrong. At first blush they seem to have an extraordinary broad discretion.
Does anyone have any expertise? It appears that the harbour airport is a controlled port of entry and tower controlled airport. It is not a private airstrip.
Is there an airport zoning regulation in and around Victoria Harbour? Fairly sure there is not. Absent that regulation I don’t think Transport Canada has any tool to stop any development around the harbour. If there was an airport zoning regulation then they have huge powers over land use in the areas covered.
ground observations: went to two open houses for SFH under 1.1 mil today. both very busy, hosting realtors running low on brochures and surprised by the number of people.
I have been trying to google Transport Canada’s jurisdiction over Victoria harbour with limited results. From what I have read the jurisdiction is very broad and not restricted to safety issues but can control all zoning that might in any way hinder the use of the airport.
I cannot believe that the developer has not had input from Transport Canada.
Can someone (not LeoS, sorry but you a lobbyist for the development industry so I wont put you in the bind of being objective) give me an objective summary of Harbour Airs concerns. I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that there are height restrictions around an airport and Victoria harbour is a designated airport. Does anyone actually know what Transport Canada’s regulations are for this airport? I assume that the Federal regulations trump both city zoning and Provincial regulations.
Precisely what did Harbour Air object to at the hearings. Had a nice stroll down the beach today, bit cloudy and the temperature was cool at 60F.
15 years of thumb-twiddling and watching thousands of float planes go by and it didn’t once occur to Kenny to pick up the phone or send a letter to Harbour Air or Transport Canada.
He had 15 years to get his development in the best possible position to get approved.
Well harbour air has been around for a good while so they should have an opportunity to voice their concerns .
#258).
I actually know a guy who lives on his own Island In Shawnigan Lake. He owns a float plane business. He takes off from the Lake then returns to his Island whenever he wants. He seems very happy In life.
https://skyvector.com/airport/CAV8/Shawnigan-Lake-Seaplane-Base
Well it’s not a safety concern. If roundhouse was actually in a flight path they would never have gotten this far and Transport Canada would have kiboshed the plan long ago.
So what’s left, maybe there’s regulations about how low they can fly, and if this is built they need to slightly adjust their flight paths which they don’t want to do. To which I say tough cookies. Housing is way more important than inconveniencing a private company slightly
They had 15 years to dot every i and cross every t, but they didn’t do it.
Are you implying that Harbour Air is bringing fake concerns to the public hearing? Why would they do that?
#255).
I think that you are probably correct. They did however warn people that these were emergency level Interest rates, Kind of a once In a lifetime deal with only one direction to go. I think that affordability will continue to be an issue moving forward as builders will just slow It down, reducing the available housing stock, while at the same time maintaining current price levels. These are volume builders, they have made a lot of money over the years, they have very deep pockets, they can afford to wait It out, and they have a bottom line. I have seen this movie before.
In the 80’s everyone with a hammer was building a spec house…This time Is different. These volume builders have the pension to hold for a very, very long time…IMHO.
Promontory given it is on a hilltop is probably similar elevation to the tallest Roundhouse building? In my years of watching floatplanes take off and land I’ve never seen one come down over or take off towards roundhouse? How come the 60 story buildings downtown Vancouver don’t impact the floatplanes?
OSFI should probably get the order of Canada for bringing in the stress test. Seems quite likely we would have had some very dangerous market instability if people were qualifying at 1% contract rates and then renewing at 5%.
The idea that it’s each individual developer’s responsibility to think about flight paths is insane. I doubt this is a real issue, but if it was it would be a failure of government to not set simple max heights that anyone can just look up.
15 years of waiting, during which time it didn’t occur to them to consult with Harbour Air and Transport Canada…
Discussion is fierce at public hearing for Roundhouse project in Vic West
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/discussion-is-fierce-at-public-hearing-for-roundhouse-project-in-vic-west-8105159
Frank, only for insured mortgages. If uninsured stress test still applies if you want to shop around for a better rate.
Good luck with that. Odds of that coming to fruition realistically are 0.01%.
#248).
Well yeah…knock off 2%…Hello sales. I also think this Is why rents are so high and all these purpose built rental builds are being constructed. People are stuck.
Now I might take some shit here, but I think this property ladder story Is a thing of the past. If you buy a condo today or buy a detached house today…They will just move up and down equally. I think that ship has sailed, I think any money would just go to realtors and taxes. I would however be Interested In any thoughts on the subject. I think detached with dirt will always win, but at the same time I know of some really nice penthouse condos on the Inner harbour.
Langford did a land swap with the First Nations…Why do you think that Is? Langford has visions along the Sooke road strip…It has already started. It will be a sea of development from Langford Lake all the way to Happy Valley Road built In phases following market conditions. I will be long dead by the time Its built out.
Ya don’t know why we still have a stress test doesn’t really make a lot of sense right now with shite sales .
#246).
I don’t know the answer to your question. I think the stress test should only be applied when Interest rates dip below 3%. It shouldn’t be static In my opinion. I find It to be very unfair and very counter productive when the Government Itself Is bitching about affordability.
I believe they have relaxed the stress test for people with an existing mortgage wanting to change lenders. Is this correct? Still applies to all new mortgages though.
#244).
My nuts are In my socks…I gotta get some wool. Cotton kills.
So how is the weather in Victoria today? Cold here today and it might drop below sixty tonight. Nice sunny day though.
#242).
Vacant land would be a premium since they wouldn’t have to tear down and get rid of an existing building. I really don’t think a vacant land owner would leave anything on the table just so someone other than themselves can make a profit.
I know kids I went to school with who’s Grandfather bought hectares of property for like five grand back In the day stretching from Happy Valley Road all the way to Sooke Road. Were talking tens of millions of dollars here now. There Is a lot of new money out here In Langford. They don’t leave anything on the table…As little as possible anyway.
They know all about density, their not stupid. Langford has no problem filling In 200 year flood plains with the rock blasted from the mountains they take down. And to tell you the truth…either do I. I am full on pro development.
#241). Today should be a real wake up call to people even considering living anywhere In Canada other than South Vancouver Island. I’ll take the rain any day… This Is bullshit, and I’m dressed like the nook of the north.
Umm really, In todays world it’s just about more tax and more regulation . This shite can’t be fixed and I would expect construction costs to keep on going up and up .
You mean the owners of the units in the Janion?
I heard the owners of the Janion are looking at trying to turn the building into a hotel. That would be one way of keeping the short term rentals alive there.
Just keep telling yourself that..
If vacant land holding costs are high enough (interest, taxes, etc.), the owner would sell the land and the price would drop to a level where building homes will make a profit to the new owner.
Good to see one of these town house complexes approved.
By non-government type straightforward thinking logic. There has been a build up of regulations, approvals and consultation processes put in place by government that extended time periods for starting and completing construction. Now, add in a tax on the business that is looking to do the construction. So, not only government hinders you from building in a timely manner, they will now bill you for that time. The logical result, the business limits it’s capital exposure and will not invest in new construction and not to lock into an indefinite cost cycle. Hence, less building. Also, a double whammy from fewer homes being built, but with the added tax increasing the carrying cost, those that do attempt build will market the housing at a much higher price point. But hey, the government can always fine BC ferries into being on time and more affordable too…Cause that will work out…lol..
I though it was “unhoused”, which at least makes sense, since you can be housed in something other than a house. But I guess I’m just not keeping up.
Good article on how home ownership has changed: https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2024/01/12/I-Spent-Holidays-Inheritance-Capitalism/
“Houseless” is the politically correct term to use these days. Housing advocates use the term “houseless” to describe someone without any physical dwelling (apartment SFH, temporary dwelling etc).
The idea is that many “houseless” people still have a home, which is their community (e.g. Victoria downtown), so they are not “homeless” they are just houseless, and we should help them secure a dwelling in their existing community (home)
So if you get evicted from your apartment in Victoria , and are living on the street, your “home” is still Victoria, so you aren’t “homeless”, you are “houseless”.
Seems an acceptable distinction to me, though I consider both terms acceptable.
I’m referring to the vacancy/spec tax on existing (built) units.
Previous proposal (oct 2023) was for 7 parking spots for 20 units. I don’t know what the final proposal was. https://tender.victoria.ca/WebApps/OurCity/Prospero/FileDownload.aspx?fileId=B2CE8FEC-0FD3-40B9-81B0-44C2211E5A03&folderId=98311C230216135212039737
HHV told us not to worry, that developers would provide enough parking.
Is 7 parking spots considered enough for 20 units? Or is the idea that street parking can handle any excess?
Too bad Roundhouse didn’t include that in their proposal, you should have proposed your idea sooner.
By what logic does a tax on vacant land lead to less new home construction? It’s self-evident to me that higher holding costs on vacant land are an incentive to build something on it.
“Houseless”? We apparently have to keep inventing new euphemisms, but could we avoid excessive damage to the language? To me “houseless” just means not having a (detached) house, just as “carless” means not having a car, etc.
Rockland is already getting a supportive housing down by Cook. Roundhouse lands would be perfect, close to downtown and right besides Marko. Don’t be such a Nimby Marko.
Caveat posted a good list of the common and current NIMBY objections, most of which are continuing and haven’t been solved by government taxes on foreigners or vacant/STR homes as you suggest as a major reason that you support these taxes. If NIMBYS still have plenty to complain about, what is your point in supporting these taxes?
I happen to think that these taxes on foreigners/vacant/STR lead to less new home construction because some builders realize they won’t be selling to those groups, and cancel or reduce the project. And of course we’ve seen BC housing starts FALL by 10% YOY.
BC population growth is currently far exceeding our new home construction, and it’s getting worse since construction units started are falling YOY. We need to build lots of mega towers to house everyone.
—-BC population rose by 163k people in 2023 (almost all from immigration and “temp” workers which usually become permanent or get replaced by other temp workers) https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/data/statistics/people-population-community/population/quarterly_population_highlights.pdf
—-That’s 68k households (estimate given 2.4 BC household size)
—-But BC Housing reports only 46k housing units started construction in 2023. The number of new units FELL by 10% YOY. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-new-homes-registrations-2023#
—-That’s a shortfall of 22k BC housing units in 2023 alone.
While the small unit missing middle projects are part of the solution, those numbers are too small to fix a huge problem like this. Assuming these population growth numbers are to continue, we need to “think big” and also start building lots of mega towers
Pretty common at public hearings and online.
One of the best posts on HHV in a long time!
The first problem I have is speakers presenting 100% false information are not stopped/questioned whatsoever.
Like the amount of straight up false BS for the Roundhouse was insane. Speakers claiming that there are thousands of vacant units (argument being if Roundhouse is built there will be more vacant units) when that is simply not true when you look at spec tax figures.
The second problem I have is why does every single speaker need to voice their personal story. Yes you worked in Singapore for 30 years and retired in 2011 to Vic West and bla bla bla, what does this have to do with the Roundhouse today.
I submitted a video that will be played on Jan 15th when council watches 3.5 hrs of videos and I kept it very short and to the point as to why I am in support.
These hearings make me question the value of the process itself. Is it just about letting people vent?
The problem is that hearing all of these complaints makes a lot of Council members reluctant to make decisions. Things get sent back for studies and more studies…
Isn’t it May? Has your client tried negotiate something with the city and ride his consulting team to try and get a grandfathered building permit? That would save some $$
Attend a few rezoning hearings. You will hear every argument: too tall, block the views, streets can’t handle the traffic, change the wind flow, unfriendly design, not “human-scale”, doesn’t preserve enough trees, doesn’t single-handedly solve housing issues, contributes to global warming, changes the character of the neighborhood, greedy developers, units too small for families, units too expensive, will just get bought up by investors, newly busy streets will be too dangerous for children, destroys heritage, ugly, will affect my property value, will just be second homes for rich Albertans/Americans/Asians, will affect the recovery of Vancouver Island Marmot population.
All but the last being actual arguments you hear.
Yes March 8th.
Are you referencing the new bc building code?
Yup, my client and I am very familiar with the details of the rental project (great project, btw). He was in the middle of rezoning when the COV approached him about switching it to MM so they could have a “first.” Keep in mind this is still a long way away from construction. Now the working drawings/consultants take 3 to 4 months. Then only once he has the building permit can he give the tenants notice so that is another 4+ months. What isn’t discussed in the article is new geotech changes coming shortly which will increase building costs and DC charges going up 2x.
In my opinion this doesn’t count as a first, but once again political optics as the first approved project is rental townhomes. The city needed to provide a “first” asap so it didn’t look like it took two years to approve a project under the policy. Let me know when a true multi-plex is approved under MM, or a townhome site that wasn’t already under way in terms of rezoning.
LMAO, why do you need to cc marko on this? Pretty sure that’s actually his client referenced in the article.
Won’t happen, NIMBYs say the tall buildings will cause wind tunnels and kill the float plane industry.
BC Housing as already bought up a number of sites and built them out in Vic West. For example “New Indigenous supportive housing in Vic West to shelter 45 houseless people” – https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2023/03/new-indigenous-supportive-housing-in-vic-west-to-shelter-45-houseless-people/
This shelter was also built out of modules, it went up super fast. I like the idea of spreading out shelters around the city. Perhaps Rockland and Oak Bay next for BC Housing?
Malahat Nation to build large battery-systems factory
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/malahat-nation-to-build-large-battery-systems-factory-8099477
cc: Marko, except he muted me
Without fanfare, Victoria approves first missing-middle housing project
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/without-fanfare-victoria-approves-first-missing-middle-housing-project-8099480
I honestly believe that the proposed buildings are not tall enough. They should be at least 35 floors at this location. But BC housing should be given some land in order to build a twenty floor supportive housing tower. We could relocate Our Place to the ground floor of the building and have wrap around services. It would help to make it a mixed use neighborhood.
Bayview Roundhouse rezoning now live……nimbys one after another; one stupid comment after another. “Nancy” concerned about architectural impact of the Roundhouse as visitors enter Victoria from the sea. Nancy also happens to live at 205 Kitma, an incredibly ugly waterfront building(s).
Renters also calling in against the development….they feel “it won’t help them, people are really struggling.”
“Kathy” from James Bay “those towers to make the developers rich are not ok.”
Seems like the new angle nimbys are starting to push is we don’t have a housing crisis we have a housing AFFORDABILITY crisis.
#206).
What exactly are you expecting? They have to live somewhere anyway. It Is probably In their best Interest to just stay put. If It sells for what they want, that’s great. If not…who cares. I really don’t see much pressure on sellers considering the price of rent these days. Selling, moving, buying back In Is a huge waste of money…Enjoy what you have.
I sell wigs on the side.
#205).
To me buying a foreclosed house Is like buying a car with a cover on It. Its sight unseen, as Is where Is, and you end up paying fair market value for It In the end anyway. They don’t leave It clean, they leave all their shit behind…Its not worth It IMHO.
It’s a court process, so unfortunately, I think the answer is, “it depends.” For the lender to actually take possession, there is a redemption period after they have applied to the court, and I believe the default period is 6 months. But they can also get an order to sell the property without actually taking possession. That’s my understanding anyway.
Maybe someone else can chime in.
#203).
Thanks for that. I am on the tail end of my mortgage and have been with Coast Capital since the beginning. I renewed Oct 2020 at 1.86% and come up for my final renewal Oct 2025. I even make extra payments biweekly towards the principle only. It was different this time, for example he wanted to see two pieces of my photo ID. He told me they do soft scrapes every six months…Almost Like He was trying to warn me. My Wife and I have no consumer debt. My wife has a CC she uses for online shopping, but she pays It off monthly.
Anyone can get their credit score/history from Equifax or Transunion for free and/or you can monitor electronically without charge through Borrowell or Credit Karma as often as you want. RBC also gives you free access to your credit report online if you have accounts with them. I check mine monthly.
All hard and soft inquiries are registered on your credit report, although only hard inquiries affect credit scores. There is always a hard check before a mortgage is granted, but I have had no soft inquiries ever. Maybe others have.
So much for the Westshore winter weakness. We looked at some places over the weekend. Assessments in Happy Valley are up 5-15%, which is emboldening sellers. Even though their places have been listed for months below the previous assessment.
#200).
I have been told the big banks do what Is called a soft scrape on your credit score every six months just to see where you are at In life. If one Is falling behind on consumer debt for example, this could pose a real problem at renewal. One could defer their mortgage obligations for six months as apposed to default…But again, I think this could pose a real problem at renewal. The lender can deny your renewal, and they will give you plenty of advanced warning prior to renewal to find another lender. One thing Is for sure…The banks are bracing.
983 Abbey Rd is just too far out of town for a lot of people, its twice as far from town as Gordon Head which is already too far away for many.
Listing ad… Bring your design ideas to this south Oak Bay gem! The innovative previous owners left you an open canvas where you control the kitchen you want to install along with your bathroom fixture and vanities. As well, the absence of a hot water tank and furnace allows you to be progressive in your choice of how energy intensive you want your future home to be! The excitement of this opportunity doesn’t end there, experience the glamourous next big thing in exterior finishing with the bleed through paint effect, be ahead of the trend and get in here now!
Depends on the creditor but most will start the process after 90 days, MIC’s might be more aggressive.
How long does it take for the creditor to get possession after a default?
I would like to know the one where they started selling the kitchen reno on fb market place.
I don’t think so, they dropped the price progressively by 200k. They started out at close to 1.4
Looks like that one was backing onto a future development, that tends to be a bit of a draw back.
Thanks Umm. Seems like it would have generated interest at that price, so I’m surprised it didn’t sell. Perhaps the sellers were just testing the listing for interest? Although that strikes me as a massive waste of time.
#190).
My abatement contractor will not take any lead to Hart Land. He has been refused too many times. He has bins In his yard that he stuffs full, then sends them to Alberta. Its not exactly a huge cost, considering he probably has six houses worth of lead stuffed in a bin…He packs them pretty tight. Leach ability level? Lead Is lead… I’ll have to bring that up.
Listing expired without a sale.
This was my thought too when I saw that, seems under priced but perhaps that is my assessment based on my own recency bias.
Will be interesting to see the price that Philippa moves at.
There was some chatter on the blog about 983 Abbey Rd in Cordova Bay being listed at $1.15. Does anyone know what the selling price was?
Ya, we discussed that one before.. Spent all that on a reno and failed to think of the floor plan. I think they started at around 2.2. There’s a few from that area that dropped off in the fall that should be coming back on soon, it will be interesting to see at what price they list.
This one s still trying 2 months later, but it is on a much bigger lot even though the layout is poor.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26270130/267-richmond-ave-victoria-fairfield-east
I haven’t heard NIMBY’s raise those points very often. More typical NIMBY objections are that density will put a strain on local services – particularly roads, traffic, parking, public transport, schools, hospitals, envoirnment and general disruption of their neighbourhood and way of life.
Those aren’t the typical NIMBY arguments.
Fair point… Just good to see. I wonder if it will cause some of the ones around 1.5 to start to rethink.
The market shifted, this is around 2M in that area now
https://realtor.ca/real-estate/26396712/23-king-george-terr-oak-bay-gonzales?utm_source=consumerapp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialsharelisting
Seen worse listed for more, especially that area.. That’s why I put the options there other than bidding war… I would guess it’s an effort to find the current market. Typically, in the last year, you would see similar listings closer to 2 mil.
OK, so 50% of 1,400 is 700 units, mostly small units. We’d be lucky to see 1.5 people per household in those, so housing for about 1,000 people. That’s a two months supply of our housing needs (assuming 6,000 people recent pop growth per year). And of course it’s a one-time benefit, so it should be clear that going forward we need to actually build new housing, not embark on these redistribution schemes
Why bidding war? it is a 14 year old house on a 3000 sqft lot with no garage.
34 Philippa Pl – MLS 950871. Listed near 1.6…. would they be looking at getting a bidding war or are price expectations starting to change? or is the market just trying to figure things out where prices should be?
No doubt, but it’s a bigger issue present in much of the western world. Only now are countries starting to wake up to the problems that restrictive zoning caused over decades. It’s global because NIMBYism is human nature. Takes a long time to change perspectives there.
However, the reality is that both vacancies and rent prices have plateaued and are starting to come down (up for vacancies) and anyone with rental properties or looking to rent have likely noticed by now.
Yeah we can get a decent estimate from http://insideairbnb.com/victoria/
4659 listings
4052 entire home listings
3497 listings that are less than 30 days
1578 listings that are recently and frequently booked (90+ days in the last year)
~200 of which are on the gulf islands, so we’re at about 1400
Maybe 50-75% of those end up in the long term market in the long run?
Gives you a sense of the rough numbers we’re talking about. It helps for sure, but mostly in the sense that we don’t need to talk about them anymore.
I think you have it backwards, rather the public believes that foreign buyers are currently much more of a problem than they really are. It’s not a matter of the government making people think they’re a problem. As Leo points out, governments have to been seen to be addressing foreign buyers to have credibility on other fronts.
Public blame of foreign buyers goes all the way back to the 1980/81 bubble, many governments ago.
Leo, the problem is, IMHO, is we’ve delayed the supply side of the equation for 10 years giving voters hope via political optics that “foreign buyers” or whatever else is the problem.
At some point all the nonsense will be exhausted and we will still have a housing crisis.
There was a slump in metro Vancouver lasting over a year after the introduction of the spec tax in 2018, particularly in lot value properties in the West Side and West Van, which was discussed in this forum at the time. For example:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/metro-vancouver-home-sales-falling-february-2019
And yet there are more than 6500 Airbnb listings and short term rentals are only legal in Victoria if licensed and only 546 were licensed. Leaves a lot of units unaccounted for – many of which are likely suites in homes.
I agree, but that 6000+ figure is full of problems. Problem number one is it includes myself who Airbnbs a principal residence which is not going to be coming to market for sale or rent.
Once all the various scenarios play out the needle won’t be moved as no new supply was added.
Effective at what?
I think it will stop illegal Strs, slow appreciation rates, and rental increases. I’d count it as an effective change and think this is already evident but will be interesting to see what happens this summer.
The tricky part is that the only way to assess impact of any given policy is relative to the counterfactual. Are prices lower today because of the foreign buyer ban? I would say yes fairly confidently, given that there were a substantial number of foreign buyers in Vancouver. How much lower? No idea, probably not massively.
Are prices lower today than they would have been without the vacancy tax? Maybe, but I would say the impact is more on the order of a couple percent.
That’s the trouble for policymakers. The only sensible way to measure impact is in this way, but the way that the public assesses success is based on absolute numbers. Did prices go down? No? Then it didn’t work.
I did summarize a number of demand side measures in this article: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2021/06/20/a-brief-history-of-credit-measures/
I think it’s very likely that prices would be higher if the feds had not acted on mortgages
I never saw this in Victoria to an extent. Strata councils were all over this in the buildings I own and issued bylaw infractions. There are units on Airbnb in buildings that do not allow STR but the minimum stay is set at 30 days to match the strata bylaw. That is what I do with my place.
In my opinion the STR legislation will be just as effective as everything that has come before it in that it won’t move the needle whatsoever.
Leo, when you have time in the future it would be cool if you compiled a list all the new legislation introduced in the last 8 years everything from foreign buyer tax to ban on rental restrictions in stratas to spec tax to recession period, etc., and then have a chart of average prices and averages rents with arrows pointing to when each piece of legislation was introduced so we can have a visual.
I think this is correct – it’s not just the formerly grandfathered ones that the market has to absorb, the writing is on the wall for the illegal ones, at least to an extent, given the onerous penalties etc.
I think you can already see this happening in Vancouver. I’ve kept my eye on those cheap old leasehold units in the West End. They were about $400k or so before the STR announcements, and now the entry price seems to be more like $300k or 350 (some even below 300). That change seemed to come very quickly. I’m just guessing those were units that were used as STR even though the strata didn’t allow that and neither did the Vancouver rules on STR.
Have said a few times, but it’s important to bundle these demand measures with the supply side reforms. Support for supply side reforms remains precarious, even if support has increased in the last couple years. The reforms are vulnerable to rollback on arguments like “all those new condos are empty”, or “they’ll just be rented to tourists”, or “it’s all being sold to foreigners”. People will still make those arguments, but with the STR reforms, vacancy tax, and foreign buyers ban + land title registry, government can point to some simple stats and say that’s not happening. There are other challenges that aren’t as easy to defray. Important for the politics of it to defuse the easier ones.
I’d suggest that the Province has instituted measures that will effectively shut down all non-conforming STRs in the province. This will mean way more rentals and listings to come I’d think. There are already a flood of these types of rental properties being listed.
I don’t think all these properties will be easily absorbed by end of summer. To a buyer or renter it really doesn’t matter if the building was formerly legal or not because formerly legal STRs are in the same boat as non-conforming now.
Usually affordable housing is provided in exchange for increased density in the zoning to make the developer whole.
Yes I meant currently legal. As for the illegal ones well that was/is a problem of enforcement.
I don’t think this can be true unless you mean the number of currently legal STR units in the City of Victoria? There are way more unlicensed and non-conforming STRs than that in Greater Victoria. AIRDNA reports 6426 Airbnb listings in Greater Victoria and many of these will need to transition to long-term, be sold, or used by the homeowner.
I’m not sure if any “affordable housing” is part of the Roundhouse Project, but time delays sure seem to mess up the cost calculations of major construction plans:
“Two affordable housing projects in Metro Vancouver double in cost” -BIV / Glacier Media
The 122-unit The Steller apartment in Burnaby has seen its anticipated costs rise from $45.5 million to $93.9 million since the Metro Vancouver housing committee approved the original concept in October 2020. Meanwhile, the 174-unit The Connection apartment, also in Burnaby, is now estimated to cost $120.8 million, as opposed to $63.8 million.
…
The bulk of the increases are due to construction costs, followed by financing and some design changes.”
https://biv.com/article/2024/01/two-affordable-housing-projects-metro-vancouver-double-cost
I would be happy if they allowed him three extra towers and make them all thirty floors tall. In addition a twenty story supportive housing tower should be built there as well that could house all of Pandora.
Thanks for the sentiments expressed below BTW, appreciate it.
Yeah that was a very rambling op-ed that will make most people’s eyes glaze over with discussion of FARs and such.
As for profit, hard to say. The build out certainly must be profitable otherwise they wouldn’t do it, but it’s a hell of a lot of expenses to offset from before the approval.
There’s no doubt he’s right that it’s an insane failure that the site has been unused for so long.
Is Ken Mariash suggesting that his company likely won’t make a profit? Are we supposed to believe that?
https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/comment-after-25-years-a-transformative-project-goes-to-the-public-8093271
You’re in the Bayview right? I think you will make out very well
This couldn’t be better news for me as the only STR I’ve ever done is my principal residence. I’ve rejected two reservation requests in the last month. One was for 35 days (condo renovation), and one was 43 days (in-between homes).
This is going to be a great opportunity for those owners that can swing a 30 day vacation/away, IMHO. I’ve had situations where I’ve made more money on the STR than I spent while away during that period.
It is interesting how much media attention this STR ban is receiving. The only story is (which is not being pushed) with the STR ban is the attack on private property rights, IMHO.
The other spinoffs are completely non-significant big picture and purely political optics.
The number of STR units that come to market for sale will be LESS than one downtown condo tower.
The number of STR units that come to market for rent will be LESS than one downtown apartment tower.
Literally everything will be absorbed by end of summer and it isn’t like anything going forward is solved as STRs were already banned in new construction in Victoria previous to this new legislation. Focus should be on how to we bring more towers to market; rather than re-distributing existing supply.
Some struggle. If you want to sell – anything – you accept a price that someone is willing to pay. It’s that simple.
I’m sure they will find out that some of the materials that are used in construction today contain harmful chemicals (like OSB). I guess we’ll all end up living in caves.
I worry more about the waves that are being transmitted to our phones that bombard us daily. The fact that I can get a call or the internet in the basement of a brick and stone warehouse makes me wonder how powerful these waves are and the potential genetic damage they may cause. This exposure is especially concerning for young, developing children, and developing fetuses. Of course there are a multitude of studies out there that ensure us that the exposure rates are within acceptable limits. There is always a price to pay for any technological advancement.
Hasn’t been my experience with teardowns. So far involved in six tears downs WITH lead paint, but the leachability level was below the Hart Land cutoff so we were able to dump at Hart Land and DID NOT have to ship to Alberta.
From: https://bc.ctvnews.ca/nothing-has-sold-investors-struggling-to-sell-short-term-rental-properties-ahead-of-b-c-law-changes-1.6720818
I remember passing on a house with formaldehyde insulation in 1990 , that too was the bogeyman of the day . Nobody today probably remembers it , but deals where falling apart unless it was removed
#147).
Well that’s great. I was born In 1973 and It was very common to see kids going to Happy Valley Elementary School on horse back. I am not kidding. Luxton Rodeo, SVI Ranger station. Point being, rules… or as you say, protocols change.
Assuming you’re not habitually exposed to asbestos on the job, you’re far better off worrying about, for example, your consumption of processed meat, red meat, and alcohol — Group 1 carcinogens (like asbestos) that many take in daily.
Asbestos is obviously bad and exposure to it should be avoided. However, it’s important to be aware of some facts:
https://www.asbestos.com/exposure/short-term/
With respect to asbestos containing materials, I disposed of an entire kitchen of asbestos backed armstrong flooring at Hartland. This was in late 2021. No license required at all. Simply had to have it in special bags goose tyed. No problem/no hassle. That was then. If the rules haven’t changed then i assume its still the same protocol. There you go, Max.
#143).
In order… worksafe Is easy, suppliers follow the rules, CRD enforces the rules.
I think the idea is to dispose of it in a safe and responsible manner.
#141). You guys are totally right, My apologies. Dispose of your asbestos however you see fit.
#138).
Exactly. I know damn straight there has to be asbestos somewhere…But I’m not about to poke the bear..
I think Totoro is right. It would be terrible policy to not allow homeowners to (properly) dispose of asbestos containing materials. The result would be homeowners doing things like burying materials in their yard, or hiding it in regular garbage bins.
I don’t think that is what the January 1 changes are intended to do.
Many times. Maybe their website is out of date. Seems unlikely though. Their bylaw states:
2.11 Despite section 2.8, a person may Dispose of Asbestos Containing Material at a Designated Location provided that: (a) The disposal of Waste Asbestos is manifested as required by the British Columbia Ministry of Environment and Transport Canada; (b) the Disposal is in accordance with the Occupational Health and Safety Regulation BC Reg 296/97 enacted pursuant to the Workers Compensation Act; (c) the Disposal of Waste Asbestos is in accordance with the Hazardous Waste Regulation. (d) the Disposal of Waste Asbestos is in accordance with the Transportation of Dangerous Goods Regulation. (e) documentation has been submitted upon request of the Manager to confirm the presence of Asbestos Containing Material in the load. (f) an appointment for Disposal is made with Capital Regional District staff a minimum of twenty-four (24) hours prior to Disposal, regular appointment hours for Asbestos Containing Material are Monday to Friday 9 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. excluding statutory holidays.
The only legislation that I see that has been amended as of Jan 1 is that Occupational Health and Safety legislation which only applies to employees/workers and not DIY homeowners. As far as I can tell this applies to homeowners:
Either way, you will still have a house that is potentially contaminated with airborne asbestos. Asbestos exposure may lead to mesothelioma and other asbestos cancers.
Do stupid things -win stupid prizes
#136). You tried to do this as a homeowner (not worker) with a test in hand, an appointment, and properly bagged drywall and were turned away? Directly contradicts the Hartland website and seems likely to be against good public policy which would encourage safe disposal options.
I am a homeowner and what you are suggesting to people Is a thing of the past…And I am not a worker, I hate working. Have you ever been to Hart Land? Appointment?
You tried to do this as a homeowner (not worker) with a test in hand, an appointment, and properly bagged drywall and were turned away? Directly contradicts the Hartland website and seems likely to be against good public policy which would encourage safe disposal options.
#133).
Go to Hart Land and try to drop off bags of asbestos without a licence.
I’m not an expert, but according to Worksafe BC and the government rules I have seen a homeowner can still order testing themselves and can buy bags and the Hartland website states individuals can make an appointment to dispose drywall containing asbestos if bagged and tested. I haven’t done this process, nor do I plan to. Workers covered by WCB cannot do this unless they are certified. Do you have a link to different rules?
Also, my understanding is that Columbia Fire & Safety on Garbally (across from the works yard) sells asbestos bags individually. I don’t suggest you DIY this, but the cost of bagging is not the barrier, nor is testing, nor is disposal: the issue is safety so it is unwise to DIY this unless you have drywall that has already been removed and you just need to dispose of it. We have not removed drywall ourselves, and have no intention of doing this.
We have used contractors to carry out work requiring professional accreditation like electrical and plumbing (they got the permits) except for minor repairs. We are not qualified to do this and it would be foolish for us to attempt it. We have assisted contractors with other renovations including a deck rebuild (with permit) and reduced costs substantially and installed flooring ourselves. We were quite motivated to save costs when we first started out – we needed to be.
We no longer DIY bigger tasks because we are older and have more resources, but we do continue to act as our own general contractor and property manager and still carry out all sorts of regular maintenance and repair tasks. FYI we have a few friends who are handier than us and have done way more, including building three houses before the owner builder exam came into effect (cue Marko).
Totoro not trying to pick on you , but following requires permit and inspection . Framing , ext doors and it has to show an engineers stamp , fixtures both plumbing and electrical, exterior deck , and demo which can’t be started until permit in hand . Trust me I’m not a stickler for permits and regulations and back in the day you did a lot of this without permits but times have changed and goverments are busy adding more
#130).
No you can’t. Do you have any idea how much a roll of approved asbestos bags cost? Go down and try and buy a roll…You can’t.
I am confused by your statement given that I posted the links to the process to follow which does not include any advice to illegally dispose of hazardous materials.
In order to be an asbestos abatement contractor covered by Worksafe BC, you need to be licensed as of Jan 1. The rules are here: https://www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/document/id/complete/statreg/296_97_04
This does not preclude a homeowner from removing drywall as they are not covered by the Worksafe BC legislation, but it would be unwise (but not illegal) without testing. Before removal you should def do asbestos testing for pre 1990 drywall. If your drywall (more likely joint compound) contains asbestos, get a licensed contractor to remove and dispose of it.
If you are a homeowner and have drywall that has already been removed, you, as a homeowner, can get it tested independently and dispose of it at Hartland following the process set out in the link I posted.
The preceding does not preclude you from DIY’ing other projects like: framing, drywalling, mudding, taping, painting, refinishing floors, changing out doors and fixtures, rebuilding decks, insulating, sourcing materials, or demo and disposal of non-hazardous materials.
#129).
Try It. You are misleading people Into a very hefty bill If they follow your advice. I am semi retired, Indirectly connected to trades, In a recession proof position…If that’s what your asking.
All bags containing asbestos must be approved, clearly labelled, sealed by a licensed asbestos abatement contractor and are to be disposed of in a separate area of the Hart Land Land fill dedicated to asbestos land fill for future reference. All materials containing ANY lead paint will be refused by the Hart Land fill and will be shipped to Alberta for disposal on your dime…End of story.
And when is soon?
Max ya it is pretty much in everything , rubble now has to be tested. People have been dropping drywall and such from bc into Alberta as it’s accepted there , so I’m guessing the new rules now that cover the transportation of drywall and such , maybe stops some of that from happening
I never said anything about a legal suite, I said renos where the owner would typically live in.
Totoro , I’m of the belief that the info u have posted has not been updated as I have read the same info in the past . If u have bags of drywall in your car and you’re not licensed to remove it I would think you would be S. O. L
I also spent $15,000 having my Oak Bay basement bathroom completely renovated last year including drywall removal by professionals, plumbing and electrical mistakes revealed and corrected, etc… A drop in the bucket for a property that will soon be worth over $2 million.
Minimum cost to turn these 70's basement to legal secondary suite with three bedrooms and two bathrooms would be $80K-$100K by the cheapest handyman in town or $140k-200k by professional. Add these cost with the main floor renovation, $350k by professional is fairly reasonable.
That is total jibber jabber.
Are you in the trades by any chance?
#119).
I do too. But Its 2024 now and you just simply can’t do that anymore. If they have to shut the yard down due to contamination Its on your dime.
The mid 1990’s was a tough time for a lot of builders because of the “leaky condo” syndrome that drove down prices of condos and caused a lesser decrease in detached house prices as people could not move up the property ladder.
That’s why I watch the condo market, especially the downtown condo market. When or if prices or rents decline that will likely foreshadow what will start to happen in the detached housing market.
There is close to 160 condos for sale downtown and that’s about 12 months of inventory for the last quarter of 2023. Market prices are a bit soft but there hasn’t been a significant decline. About 30 percent of them are being sold vacant which is not all that bad as even in the detached housing market about 20 to 25 percent are being sold vacant.
I think we would have to see the number of vacant downtown condos at 50 to 75 percent before any significant price drops. There are a lot of condos foro rent so I don’t see rents increasing in the next 90 days. If you have a downtown condo you might be looking at a lease up period of a month to find a tenant which is an 8 percent vacancy rate. We’re probably around 4 percent for downtown condos . That’s not really a reason to panic and drop the rent. If you go three months without a tenant, that’s when you should panic, because you are never going to get that rent back. That puts you behind not just by the lost rent but strata fees, and other the expenses you’ve paid to keep an empty suite.
That will put a dagger in your ROI.
“We’ve done lots of renovations over the years, quite a bit of it DIY. Agree you can save a lot if you have some level of skill and shop around for materials.”
I totally applaud Frank and Totoro and any others that gets off their couch, turn their computers off, and put some physical effort into improving their homes.
Got an answer from the province on the short term rental situation with the 30 vs 90 days. here’s how it will interact with the Vancouver STR guidelines. Other cities will be similar. So even though Victoria defines STRs as 30 days or less, you won’t be able to do 30 day rentals in an investment property, it will have to be 90+ days.
I’m not sure why the focus is on licensing as a barrier to DIY.
You can hire someone to test and remove drywall. In our case, we need to remove zero drywall or plaster to renovate, but if it is required it should not be an insurmountable barrier. You can see the rules for disposal at Hartland here, as well as the companies that provide this service:
https://www.crd.bc.ca/service/waste-recycling/hartland-landfill-facility/permits-pre-approvals/asbestos
And here is what the province has to say:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/waste-management/hazardous-waste/registration-of-hazardous-waste-generators-and-facilities/managing-waste-asbestos
There are loads of things a homeowner can manage and renovating existing homes should be encouraged from an environmental perspective — the math already supports it even with asbestos testing for many homes.
Asbestos Is everywhere though. Stucco, mortar, plaster, gyp-rock, flooring. Lead painted anything has to be shipped to Alberta for disposal. They empty your bin at the yard and sort It, Including opening up garbage bags…They will find It. You need to be licensed…You can’t DIY.
Dad ya it changed Jan 1 and I’m guessing u will now have to show a license when u show up with a load
Thurston is not including materials though and sounds like he is a two man show, so likely the helper is working as a contractor and not an employee.
Meh. I would say that you can do all sorts of things DIY and pay for whatever testing/disposal is required legally and this should not be a reason not to DY and fix up an old house which, overall, is way better for the environment that a teardown.
Not that pricey, just pretty standard. $150 per with a minimum 2 hours. Then add materials. Remember these things called taxes, WCB, EI and etc… all needs to be paid. It whittles down quickly.
I think the majority of homeowners wouldn’t take out permits unless they were doing something major. Otherwise it wouldn’t seem worth the hassle.
As for getting rid of drywall, has it changed? I have had to get drywall and plaster tested recently, but it was no problem to dispose of it (it came back negative for asbestos mind you). I always thought it was weird though that they took such a hard line on plaster and drywall, but you could dump old lino tile no questions asked.
It’s quite amazing what retired or part time tradesmen you can find through word of mouth or on FB who will work for peanut for smaller jobs, a couple of times I thought they didn’t change me enough so I gave them a tip for doing such a good job, cash job of course. Some times guys just want to do small jobs to keep busy.
Great story, and a real win-win.
principal residence where I actually live maybe depending on what it is, rentals definitely not lol!
Vic , ya wish I was pricey but it is the norm , it does realistically reflect the cost as a trade to do business . But sure there are lots of handymen that will do do work for less but they won’t be on better quality projects and might not be able to pull permits. Ya I guess u don’t have any work for me then lol
#101).
When I was young I found myself In a similar problem. I used to build spec houses…I was In trouble, this was the mid 90’s. I had been In this spec house for going on 8 months now and It wasn’t moving…I was scared shitless. One sunny day this couple came around and loved the house, they offered me full price subject to them selling their house. They were asking way too much for their house and I knew It wouldn’t move. So I bought their house, and have been living here ever since…best decision I ever made. I honestly couldn’t have picked a better house to buy.
You must be a pricy contractor then as I know quite a few contractors that walk into a house reno job for less than 1k a day excluding materials. I also haven’t heard of helpers being paid 70 bucks an hour unless that is your charge out rate?
Totoro, u can do a lot of those things yourself but they more than likely will require a permit . Government and industry are tightening up a lot on asbestos removal , transport and disposal . You are not really allowed today to touch any of the drywall in your own house for the most part without it being tested and u being licensed
Vicrealnalyst , from what u have described doing on that gordenhead box , you already spent about 80 grand on hazmat and really haven’t done anything
Highest ROI renos there are.
A skilled tradesperson is worth it. There is just a lot of lower skilled tasks a homeowner can do and you can end up paying skilled trade rates for this if you are not managing things well.
#95).
Everyone knew that STR’s were under the axe a year ago, They had plenty of warning.
If u do the math , as a trade I wouldn’t walk onto your site for less than a 1000 bucks a day and I will also charge the same for drive time . That is the reality , but my helper is only 70 bucks an hour
Ya, that all would just fall under clean up and basic maintenance and not a reno. Do you count mowing the lawn and changing light bulbs as sweat equity as well?
Yes, I put lipstick on a pig. It still was a huge improvement.
We’ve done lots of renovations over the years, quite a bit of it DIY. Agree you can save a lot if you have some level of skill and shop around for materials.
I really like a lot of the amenities and comfort of new builds, but if you want to stay in Oak Bay/Fairfield ish areas there are very few new builds and any that are post year 2000 are very expensive given that lot values alone can easily be 1.5 million.
If new construction is 400-500 a square foot and you have an older 3000 square foot home in this area that is valued at $100/square foot (lots of them in Oak Bay/Fairfield), putting another $50/square foot in is a drop in the bucket to update and stay in the area without paying new build prices if you are up for renovating and plan to stay at least 10 years.
I agree certain renos pay off on resale more than others, but when you start looking around at what is available and you are not willing to go to Broadmead or Langford your options are limited.
Ask not for whom the bell trolls, it trolls for thee
That’s not really a reno, all you did was essentially replace a toilet and paint a small room.
$350-750 grand to do a renovation???? That’s insane. These tradespeople are making more than surgeons. I’m no Mike Holmes, but there is such a thing as sweat equity. I recently did a mild renovation on a bathroom. Nothing serious, new toilet, plumbing repair caused by trying to remove the shutoff valve, patching compound, paint, Value Village mirror, towel rack, and cupboard, yet to buy $200 Home Depot medicine cabinet, epoxy spray paint for the vanity sink (very toxic), and sweat equity totalling under $1000. My friend in Ontario spent $1200 on a mirror for his bathroom reno. Oh yeah, also new towels and shower curtains.
Most common reno I see for 70’s boxes where the owner want to live in are: modifications to an open concept kitchen (without structural changes), paint, floors, pod lights, washrooms, doors/closets. All that could be done for <200k.
Vic , a homeowner will do a higher quality Reno in a nicer area and yes as a trade u want to work with better clients with deeper pockets cause u can charge more . As a trade working on custom homes is way better than shitty condos
Assuming the exact same house, why would a down to the studs reno cost different in a “good” area vs a “bad” area? Some small contractors do price differently according to how much money they perceive the owner to have, is that what you are referring to?
Down to studs Reno on a good size home say 2500 sq in a good core area , nicely done is 750 to a mil
Ya I don’t think that would be a typical reno one would.
I agree, paint, floors, repaint cabinets and new countertop in the kitchen would be a good start.
That’s right Vicanalyst, a complete renovation down to the studs where you could then apply for a permit for a suite at the time of construction. The cost will vary depending on the size of the house and the quality of materials used. In the end you will still have 2 x4 construction and an old foundation. But it also depends on how you dress up the exterior siding too, roof, decks, patios, fences, landscaping etc. So you can start at $350,000 and then go up from there.
The cost to construct a home won’t make it unaffordable if you buy the land at the right price. Buy the land at the right price and one can still build a house and make a profit.
The problem with Victoria, Oak Bay and Saanich East is that most of the land has a house on it. A developer doesn’t want the house as it will be demolished. However, the developer has to compete against a person that wants to live in the house and that raises the price to the point that building affordable housing is a challenge.
And that may be done by increasing the number of listings for pre 1970’s home. One way would be to remove the home owner’s grant and property tax deferrals. Those government programs are not necessary anymore.
Eventually the market will take care of itself as property taxes and other costs of home ownership have no where else to go but up and those that are aging in-place on fixed incomes will sell and move to a more manageable housing.
Are you assuming a total top to bottom renovation including finishing a previously unfinished basement?
Marko, how many of the former AirBnBs have sold in the last couple of months?
In general, when doing a substantial renovation you won’t get all of your costs back in the market. Bringing a Gordon Head box up to modern standards that are done professionally can be around $350,000. In most cases it would be better to sell the home and buy another property with all the modern conveniences as renovation costs can be 150 to 200 percent more than if one was building a new home on a vacant lot.
I consider painting the home immediately before selling would give the best return/ pay back, followed by floor coverings, kitchens, bathrooms. But it depends on the property’s age and condition; and if the neighborhood values will support the cost of the renovations when completed. You can hire people that do this for a living. They can estimate the current value of the property and assuming all of the renovations are completed. That might assist you in setting a budget for the renovations.
For most homogenous neighborhoods in Victoria, the majority of similar size houses will vary by around plus or minus 20 percent of the typical home for the neighborhood. Properties that are still mostly original with little to no updating will be at the lower end and a newer home will be at the high end. That’s something to keep in mind when considering a renovation.
$400K haircut for new townhouses in Ottawa peripheral market. Not going to say that will happen in metro Victoria, but it’s not an island, economically speaking. 🙂
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/carleton-place-homes-sold-for-400-000-under-original-selling-price-1.6718571
I find it hard as on one hand these comments sections have interesting facts and links that are helpful for my housing decisions… but I have to wade through posters literally referring to others as “Sir Douche” and analyzing grammar to bring forward conspiracy theories of who is secretly who.
Is it possible to have a forum that is on topic for, oh I don’t know, actual house hunting?!?
So VicREanalyst is ks112. Whom knew? 🙂
It takes you farther than selling your older house and buying new. I’ve looked into it 🙂
So VicREanalyst a.k.a. Sir Douche is ks112, but of course he must continue to lie about it, and BTW he wants everyone to address him as sir, which I’ve starting doing.
Except a couple of hundred thousand doesn’t take you that far anymore, unfortunately.
By the private market, but that is already the case. The numbers for building make it a hard sell to build single family houses.
I think this encourages renovation/repair of existing single family housing. Putting a couple hundred thousand into an older house to bring it up to more modern standards now has way higher roi than tear down and rebuild for me at least.
As I’ve been saying for many years; government should not be involved in the actual construction of housing. When you involve the government the per unit cost ends up being more than the cost of equivalent completed market units. I understand the need for affordable below market housing but just straight up buy the finished product from a developer, but what I am I talking about as they can’t even do that. BC Housing paid $26 million for that hotel downtown Victoria that is now being torn down. Chard paid $7.5 million for the site next door.
Imagine having a hotel that is falling apart maybe worth $10 million and BC Housing comes in and gives you $26. Seems like a lottery win.
Just completed a webinar on demystifying the assessment appeal process. BC Assessment has made it easier to appeal your assessment if you feel it is too low or too high. The two main causes for an appeal are the value and the classification of the property. The classification most often is related to your property’s Highest and Best Use. You will need to provide evidence to support your claim, but that doesn’t mean that you need to hire a professional appraiser.
If you are wondering where BC Assessment gets the information about your home it is most often from the plans that are at the municipality when the home was built or that an assessor measured the property. Over time people change their homes with additions or basement finishing so this information may be inaccurate.
And yes a few people do complain that they are assessed too low. The assessments are not just used for taxation. Insurance providers, fire department, lenders, etc. also use this data so it is in your best interest to check that the information about your property is reliable.
The number one question mortgagees and mortgagers ask about a property is how the assessed value relates to the property’s current market value. They want a quick and free answer. Most assume that the property is worth more than the assessed value and therefore provides a base price. That’s not always true. A SAR or ASR only provides a cross check to the value of your house or condo is mostly determined by comparable sales. It is not considered to be evidence to your property’s market value.
The assessment that you look up online today is the “Completed Roll” After the appeals are wrapped up in mid March, BC Assessment will issue its “Revised Roll” from which property taxes are calculated by the cities. Then a few months later, the real estate boards will upload this year’s assessments to their data base. If you were to list your property today, then it would most likely show the previous year’s assessment.
Keep that in mind if you are trying to use a ratio such as a Sales to Assessment (SAR). BC Assessment reverses the ratio and uses an ASR. To be accurate you would need to calculate the coefficient of disbursement but a glance of the data will usually show that if you live in a homogenous area of housing such as Royal Bay the majority of property’s market value will lay within plus or minus 5 or 10 percent of the median SAR of a typical property. If you live in an area where the properties vary greatly from each other such as in parts of Oak Bay, acreage, water front, etc then the variation around the median will be significantly greater.
So the answer to the question of how do your assessments relate to current market value is….
– it depends.
I thought these funny “whom” errors looked familiar…
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The cost to build will outpace inflation by a long shot . No affordable housing will be built
Placing a cap on rent increases for a new tenant is the very definition of vacancy control.
It seems that bumping up the costs of a government project is not much of a challenge at all.
Article today says that one sale at the Mermaid went for 300k for a 464 sq, ft unit. Had been asking 467k. Dont know about other sales recently.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/people-are-listing-their-short-term-rentals-and-some-are-selling-way-below-asking
Well great, they’ll be buying then, instead of waiting, which is my point. Which I described as “hold your nose and buy”.
Not sure why posters with no “insider contacts” keep disputing with people who have them, seems so counterintuitive. If I were those people I would stfu, consider what was posted and decide how that may impact myself and make some decisions accordingly.
Totoro: Apparently bumping up the cost of government contracts is not much of a challenge.
That’s a depressing article alright. Though what kind of cost efficiency should we expect for a development run by a government “housing committee” ?
This is where the the real world doesn’t jive with the fictional world. Very few would realistically pass up buying a house in say broadmead just to hold out trying to time a market crash to get into uplands.
A few months back, I wrote that I heard that there is growing consideration for vacancy controls and I believe that I was totally discounted. Thank you Marko for the article that the BCGEU is calling for them. I am not saying that they will be passed or even introduced but there is support for them in the NDP. I am aware that Ebby said that he would not impose vacancy controls in general but it could be argued that placing a cap on increases for a new tenant is a different process. (I am not saying it is different but it is a matter of political spin).
If landlords were limited to a 10% increase between tenants what impact would this have on valuations?
New construction sure is a challenge.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/metro-vancouver-housing-costs-committee-1.7079175
With older couples who have assets or an income stream by one or both spouses, it was my experience that a buyout was not unusual. Most often the wife wanted to keep children stable and in the same school and neighbourhood. But Toronto is not Victoria and the dynamics might be different here.
Marko, why do you think there might be an increase?
Yes, they could have gotten something much better pre-Covid. But those days are gone, and some of the ones tired of waiting will settle for something they can afford now.
It’s called “Hold your nose and buy” 🙂
Mostly an unrealistic scenario, so you are saying that couples whom could afford a house before covid are going to go buy some houses now? Most couples whom are able to afford a house now would have been able to afford something much better pre covid. Unlikely there will be many in situations like that.
For couples who’ve been waiting years for lower prices, I’d expect the “some sort of movement” to come from one of the spouses, to announce “I’m tired of waiting, let’s buy a house now” and proceed to march the holdout spouse out to some open houses. 🙂
I understood why you appealed, but I don’t understand why someone would ever appeal an assessment that is too low. Even if planning to sell I wouldn’t appeal too low, let alone if not planning to sell then I really can’t see a reason?
Too high, of course makes perfect sense.
No, too high. 27% more than our purchase price. You know the one. No sense paying the extra property tax.
Too low? I spent an hour last year with a client trying to talk her off a cliff in appealing an assessment that was too low (has no intention to sell in near future so no angle there either if you are of the belief that a higher assessments helps when selling). Was simply upset that her neighbors unit was assessed higher, but her unit was better/bigger, both true but why would you ever appeal. Who cares if too low.
My unit has been underassessed by 300k for 5 years now, hopefully it continues.
They don’t, I pick up the party looking to buy after they’ve been bought out; that is how I know about it.
I’m surprised these involve realtors. Must be super high conflict to get to that and has to be a tiny % of all buyouts.
Re. assessments – as has been posted if you think your assessment is too high/low you can email BC Assessment prior to appealing. I just did this and our assessment was changed within a week and without an appeal.
A lot of SRT units are also being sold (or asking) at a solid profit; therefore, I think some are taking the circumstances to move on to other things. Given the equity in some of these units if they switched to long term rentals they would have no issues cash flowing but some owners just don’t like the concept of having a long term rental irrelevant of the numbers.
Is the $399,900 unit listed at the ERA the lowest list price we’ve seen since 2019? Yes it is, but the seller paid $211,900 in 2015.
My napkin math tells me less than 10% of SRT units have been listed so far. The weakness I see in the downtown condo market is primarily poor demand rather than a huge glut of inventory, even with the SRT units. I was expecting worse. If the market picked up a bit it wouldn’t take much to clear out the inventory.
Rents appear to be holding in there despite the SRT flood plus several large apartment building completions.
Lmao, I did my best to warn them.
What I have heard is that most offers on sfh right now have the condition of the buyer selling their existing home. Again small sample size
Not affording payments is distinct from investors not willing to carry negative cash flow properties. We are already seeing investors getting out of STR units because the numbers don’t work any more. If we don’t see lower rates soon more investors in general are likely to get out IMHO.
What I am seeing is a mix of reasons no different than what I’ve seen in the last 14 years of selling real estate. Not seeing cannot afford payments scenarios to any extent whatsoever. In the last three years I’ve sold one condo on the basis of increased payments and the seller did not have to sell, but didn’t want to change his lifestyle to offset the extra $800 in interest so he sold.
Small sample size but believe it or not I am seeing more divorce buyouts then before (i.e., one party buys out the other versus selling) which is counterintuitive as you would think with higher interest rates and worsening affordability that wouldn’t be an option for many in such a situation.
https://www.bcgeu.ca/bcgeu_calls_for_vacancy_control_not_more_unaffordable_rent_hikes
Marko- What are the factors motivating sellers, especially regarding the SFH market? Are investors liquidating, estate sales, people leaving the city, divorce, cannot afford the payments? Just curious what you’re seeing.
All sorts of reasons. You were planning on selling soon and tenants moved out now so you can either sell now, leave the house vacant gambling on the market or re-rent it making it much more difficult to show/sell later in the year.
Last year I predicted SFH prices would drop as that made sense (interest rates going up) and I was way off. This year I am predicted a small uptick in SFH prices and watch me be totally wrong and prices for some weird reason come down.
The longer the market hangs in there the smaller the chances of a price correction, imo. Given the interest rates it is quite shocking how well the market has performed. We are still way above (30%) 2019/2020 prices at much higher interest rates.
To start the year I see no lack of demand on the ground and that is before even any potential downward pressure on interest rates. In my opinion it will really come down to the new listing picture. If we get a flood of listings it could put downward pressure on prices and if not then unfortunately I think we are looking at a whole lot of flat. If we do get any sort of upward price pressure to start the year then look out once rates start coming down.
Yep, it’s the price. It’s a smaller lot and even though it’s extremely well maintained as in a “vintage” condition, but that’s deceptive. A lot work needs to be done such as windows, furnace, insulation and etc… Probably would have gotten their price in a hotter market, but it’s 150k to 200k too much for current conditions. There’s probably buyers looking for that original esthetic, however, they are likely fewer then the ones that look at the updating costs. (For me, I would like a driveway as well).
Anyone take a look at 1466 Gladstone? 4 bed character/heritage house in prime Fernwood location. Curious why this one hasn’t sold.
Indeed. And that cohort will become impatient and do most anything…
Tax wealthy homeowners to fund affordable housing, says new B.C. proposal –BIV (Glacier Media)
“Taxing the house-wealthy could help solve B.C.’s housing crisis: UBC prof
Paul Kershaw calls for more taxation on wealth after housing study shows ‘erosion’ of Canadian dream
An advocate for better housing policies says the housing wealth of older generations is contributing to housing insecurity among younger generations in calling for higher taxes on the house-wealthy.”
That sounds promising. Good luck!
Calgary weather forecast:
“ building backlog of would-be first time buyers, shut out and waiting on the sidelines” = more buyers = more demand, so that alone would create “movement” to raise prices.
That will likely need some sort of movement on affordability.
Oh ya, selection has improved immensely. I am passing on houses that I would have jumped on just 1, 2 and 3 years ago. The houses I have offered on recently have only had only 2 or 3 other bidders instead of the 16 or so that I was running into over the last few years.
#36).
“Our proximity to the world’s most powerful and wealthy country sets us apart from countries like New Zealand and Australia. In time few places in Canada will be affordable.”
I agree 100%.
That’s what they used to say. But there was a 41 year low in % of first-time buyers in 2022, down to 26%. With the age of the first-time buyers being an all-time high – age 36! So now the assumption is that there is a building backlog of would-be first time buyers, shut out and waiting on the sidelines.
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-buyer-seller-stats/
“First-time buyers struggle with housing market
Today’s challenging real estate climate has kept many first-time homebuyers away. In fact, their share of the market was only 26 percent — the lowest since 1981, when NAR first started collecting this data.
First-time homebuyer share of market in 2022: 26 percent
For comparison’s sake, first-time buyers had a 34 percent share in 2021. Not only did 2022 see fewer first-time buyers, but the ones it did see were older than ever, with their typical age being an all-time high of 36.”
Oh I agree, the demand is soft right now and buying power is suppressed and there are numerous livable houses in the core for under a million.
Unlikely, but sure. But It does show that you really don’t understand how the great Canadian RE game is played 😉
Well, lets see how much the buyers have changed… Maybe those in the desperate to buy category is tough (no one actually needs to buy) it’s a want thing. Those with a desperate desire to buy might have had many depending on mommy and daddy’s HELOC which likely won’t be appearing anytime soon as a down payment source. As folks say, first time buyer drive the market. Ideally, folks that are actually liquid have an opportunity in the near term.
Patrick, I would agree we have seen very little price relief . At this point I’m kinda giving up on the idea of a big price correction.
I agree, and the solution to this problem is work harder and make more money or marry rich since rich parents are out of the question if you are already in this predicament.
For now. they either don’t even live in Victoria, or the one that does doesn’t know if they want to stay here long term. If they do decide to live here I’m ready to help them, whenever that is.
But not to worry VicRE … my kids who don’t own homes will still be able to say, like you do… “My Family and I own properties” 🙂
Your typical buyer would be more desperate than your typical seller because likely the seller is in the money on the house and can afford to wait as most of the houses on the market weren’t purchased within the last 2 years. Unless of course they are getting a divorce or already went firm on another house.
Why don’t you practice what you preach and give your kids that same advice since that is why you said you are on HHV in the first place?
..
My point was more about if sellers would be waiting for better conditions, the same could be potentially said for buyers. It would be funny to see a stand off continue with both low inventory and low demand. The catch is which will arrive first: demand or inventory?
Is going to a Canucks game affordable? Are you going to base your decision on the cost of a median ticket? Or the lowest priced ticket? And if you can’t afford median priced tickets, do you stay home, and announce to the world on a sports blog that Canucks tickets are unaffordable? If everyone did that, half the seats might be empty. Instead, they’re filled with fans that are happy with below median price tickets.
Same reasoning applies to housing.
Instead of just “median price” we also should make charts with the prices for the lowest 10th percentile priced home. That would be a better indicator of what is affordable.
For example, in the USA, 13% of homes sell for under $300,000. So 13% are homes for sale are affordable if you can pay $300,000. That seems do-able for most. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/quarterly_sales.pdf
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Does anyone know… What’s the equivalent number for Victoria price of lowest 10th percentile homes? And what income is needed to buy it. To me, that would be the meaningful “affordability” chart if we are trying to show that it is a housing “crisis”.
It’s also important for a first time buyer to chose the right type of property if there goal is appreciation that will enable them to move up the property ladder or buy a more modest condo and live comfortably within their means.
Assuming that their first home will be a condominium should they buy new or near new or should they buy a condo that is less expensive but 10 or 20 years old. Buying an older condominium means they don’t have to come up with a large down payment relative to a newer condominium so they can buy sooner. With a newer condominium there isn’t the need to remodel or replace appliances that have a short life span of five or ten years so there is less maintenance. Then there is the possibility of a special assessment for repairs to the complex that may surface in the older condos.
Both a near new condo and a 20 year old condo will appreciate with the market but the dollar amount of the increase will not be the same. Buying an older less expensive condominium may not provide enough of a total dollar increase to move to a starter house. They may find themselves priced out of a single family house as they are not building equity as quickly as the more expensive new (er) condo. Then they may find the gap between their older condo and a starter house widening relative to a new (er) condo.
Should they buy a studio or save longer for a larger down payment to buy a one or two-bedroom condo? Does one buy a condominium where the payments are easily managed or should one double down and leverage the most expensive condo and live frugally for what ever time it takes to reap the higher appreciation.
It seems a waste to not be able to afford the things when you are young and healthy enough to enjoy them. Or pinch the pennies and when you retire spend the time on Alaskan cruises with a lot of obese tourists filling up at the buffet tables.
You only have one life to live.
You can’t time the market. There are a number of posters in this thread that have been here on HHV 4+ years “waiting” for prices to fall, and all we hear from them now is plans for more waiting. They’re sure lower prices are around the corner. In the old days we called them “bears”, but I expect some would find that term PI and offensive now
It’s better to buy now, what you can afford of course. And yes, despite the heresy of saying it – most everyone on HHV could afford to buy something. Lower your expectations, and climb onto a lower rung.
Man I would hate to think that this is the bottom of the market and prices will bounce up from here . If I was a first time buyer I would feel there’s not much hope of getting on that bottom rung
For those that are intending to appeal their assessments. BC Assessment has made it easier to appeal as the appeal is done on Zoom. You don’t have to appear before the appeal board (PARP) in person. You will have to provide evidence for your appeal which is usually comparable sales. For some that had their property listed or bought their property during 2023 and there is a significant difference with the assessment that may be all that you will need. But it is best to submit the appeal soon as BC Assessment may change the assessment without you having to go through the appeal board.
That knife can cut both ways, why wouldn’t buyers wait for rates as well? Unless they see what they want to buy right now, why not wait for more affordability to enter the market. Or are there symptoms of FOMO actually creeping in? Or is it industry trying to set expectations and attempting pump a slow market. “Look at those 5 year rates coming down, better buy now or never buy”. We will see the seasonal uptick, but the question is whether is will maintain or increase more than standard activity or fall off…
It’s quite interesting, if sellers believe that interest rates will come down and prices will go up in the spring then why accept any offers now instead of waiting couple of month? Unless they need to sell because they had an offer accepted on another place or for some other reason.
Sorry to hear that. Thank you as always for the detailed stats.
Condolences Leo, take care of yourself and the family. Blogging can wait
From me as well.
All the best Leo!
I don’t know what the offers are until conditions are removed and the sale is reported as pending.
Pretty sure we’re going to see inflation rates going back up with the shipping stuff going on (https://nitter.net/typesfast/status/1743654060673093754)
Also, sorry to hear about your family member Leo.
Of the accepted offers that you are seeing Marko, how many are at or close to asking? Obviously just a ballpark feel of the situation.
LeoS, while comparing sales totals over the last thirty years might be interesting it also is a bit misleading. There was a lot less total housing units twenty to thirty years ago so one really would expect less sales. Since you are the master of graphs perhaps a graph of total sales going back 30 years might be more useful. Or for that matter how are we doing compared to the last ten years?
So sorry to hear this Leo. Take care.
Let’s all take a moment to thank Sir Douche for the incredible value he brings to HHV. Comedic value.
Leo,
My condolences to you and your family for your loss.
Condolences from my family to you and your family, Leo.
Likely because some people live a sad life and posting links on hhv is the only thing that gives them a purpose. Quite sad…..
What are you? How long have you been posting on hhv? Have you ever post anything that anyone have found to be relevant to anything?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/presales-construction-contracts-real-estate-canada-buyer-beware-1.7076994
Interesting discussion on BNN this morning with Ian Bremer, a political scientist, concerning the current state of U.S. politics. The analysis was not encouraging, it’s a mess. Whatever the outcome of the upcoming election, there could be a lot of Americans (mostly financially well off) looking to relocate to Canada. The catastrophe at the southern border doesn’t help either.
Our proximity to the world’s most powerful and wealthy country sets us apart from countries like New Zealand and Australia. In time few places in Canada will be affordable.
Unfortunately this totally neglects the difference between a average house and an average condo. The former being something closer to 3 bdrm and 2 bathrooms, and the latter being something closer to a 1 bed 1 bathroom residence. I don’t know what the average three bedroom condo price is but a quick MLS search shows its likely similar to that of a townhouse price (if not more given many are in the millions). So really what you should say is family residences are unaffordable meanwhile a 1 bed condo for a median family income is obtainable – great for DINKs.
Agree with you there.
I am sorry for your loss Leo.
On the market front I am seeing a lot of accepted offers out there right now and on properties that have been sitting for a while.