Failure to launch?
More young adults have been living with their parents in recent decades. In Canada, the number of young adults living with parents doubled in 20 years, and has continued to expand since then. Its not just a Canadian phenomenon either, with “living with parents” being the most common arrangement for young adults aged 18-34 in the UK and US while the percentage forming a family plummets.
There are many potential reasons for this shift, with students increasingly likely to pursue post-secondary education and staying at home longer during their studies. Part of it is also cultural, with an increasing percentage of Canadians from cultures where living with a parent into adulthood is more common. Affordability of rents and home ownership is also a factor, given it’s more difficult to leave the house when homes cost more to rent or own. At least that’s the argument that was made in a recent FT article that argued the housing crisis was behind the UK’s drop in young adults forming their own households. It sounds plausible and the chart showing affordability there is the worst in 150 years certainly underlines the point, but is that the whole story? What does the data actually look like in Canada?
I previously wrote about millennial home ownership rates, where Victoria is solidly (and somewhat puzzlingly) in dead last place, despite not being the most expensive market in the country.
Note: Chart from 2016 census data
Given our relatively high rents, are Victoria’s young adults also likely to remain living with parents? The Census has this answer, and the answer is: surprisingly not. Note I’ve used only young adults from the ages of 25 to 34 in order to minimize the impact of the student population in younger cohorts.
As with ownership rates, some of these data points make intuitive sense. Our two highest priced cities, Toronto and Vancouver have a very high rate of young adults living with their parents. But beyond that there doesn’t seem to be a lot of relationship between housing costs and whether young adults are living independently. Some cheap cities like Halifax and Regina have highly independent young adults, while others (Winnipeg) have plenty of offspring at home. Very affordable Edmonton is middle of the pack. The Niagra region, with a benchmark price of $617,000 is near the top, while Victoria with prices a third higher has some of the lowest percentage of young adults still in the home. If they’re not in the family home, and not buying houses, then they must either be renting or leaving town altogether.
Cultural mix is definitely a factor, but even if we look at change from 2011 to 2021, there is no clear pattern by housing costs. Vancouver’s rate didn’t change at all in 10 years while Toronto increased by 3 percentage points. The relatively affordable Calgary saw the largest increase in young adults living at home, while Victoria was on the low end of the increases and substantially cheaper Courtenay’s rate increased by four percentage points.
As with the ownership data, Victoria is a bit of a puzzler here, but overall there is more to the trend of hanger-on kids than just housing costs. What are your theories what is driving it?
Also the weekly numbers
| January 2024 |
Jan
2023
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 32 | 95 | 278 | ||
| New Listings | 187 | 443 | 805 | ||
| Active Listings | 2008 | 2087 | 1739 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 17% | 21% | 35% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | — | +37% | -41% | ||
| New Lists YoY Change | — | +25% | +16% | ||
| Inventory YoY Change | +25% | +25% | +134% | ||
| Months of Inventory | 6.3 | ||||
A decent start for activity in the first half of January, with sales and new lists both solidly outperforming last January. However it’s worth keeping in mind that:
- The first weeks of January always have low sales numbers so it doesn’t take a lot of sales or new listings to shift the percentages in big ways. The next two weeks will have a lot more influence on the month’s performance
- Last January was a pretty terrible month for sales. At 278 it was the 3rd worst on record going back to 1985 which doesn’t make it a great trick to outperform this year. Even if the 37% more sales holds for the entire month, we would end up at lower than the average for January.
Either way, expect activity to pick up as we move into spring and year over year improvements in activity for the first few months at least. Last year the market improved substantially, hitting a low of 2.3 residential months of inventory in May, which is a pretty active sellers market. With a quarter more inventory I doubt we will get that low this year, but that depends on how tempting those dropping rates are to buyers that have been sidelined. With 5 year fixed rates once again dropping under the 5% mark, we’re roughly back to where we were a year ago on the rate picture. Prices are roughly similar which means affordability is slightly better due to rising incomes in that time.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/01/22/checking-on-the-airbnb-situation/
Smart sellers price sharply IMO. Sell or don’t sell. Never understood the sellers who overprice then keep their places up for months and years. Why put up with that grief?
My favourite was when Marko edited a post that was the subject of a heated argument I was having with him. That was fun.
I guess open houses do work!
Depends if you are viewing middle age as the middle third of your life. But you are right about the oxford definition.
Could the lower % of insured mortgages in Victoria just be a function of the more houses purchased greater than one million? i.e., you can’t buy a house over a million without 20% minimum down
Curious Cat,
I’d echo Totors’s advice and cut the 26 year old some slack. There’s worse things than a guest who dresses nicely and has champagne taste. Such as a guest who is a slob and is disrespectful in general. Maybe with alcohol/drug problems too.
If you want to do something you could increase his rent. But maybe he’s serious about NZ and that might help him make a move one way or the other.
In the meantime, the Bible tells us that we are our brothers’ keeper. Of course that applies to helping all human beings, but it especially applies to close family like this. And it sounds like this young man needs and appreciates your help. And kudos to you for helping him.
45-65 is middle-aged last time I checked the dictionary.
I can cut a 26-year-old some slack (he’s 26 not 27). I may be biased as I didn’t really get it together until I was 30, and made most of my financially important decisions and professional progress in a period of 10 years.
I think it is good to give younger people some leeway. They are no different from older people except for their access to information and options plus time.
Which one? Price point?
10 offers on a SFH I showed over the weekend.
At 27 he is already middle age.
From my experience with nieces and nephews and friends kids in their 20’s I find that many just take longer to get setted in “adulting” vs previous generations, but most of them get there. It seems like one year they seem to be floating and then things click and the next thing you know their moving in with partner and house hold income is 150 – 200k+.
#324).
Hes 27 years old, he should be In his prime earning years. Being a male he less than two thirds of his life left to go. Make It count. I’m a gen X’er. You sound like a very nice person. Perhaps too nice.
This is all great advice everyone. Thanks, it’s hard to find someone to talk to about this, and sometimes random internet people know best and tell you things straight up.
If you are feeling like this it is time for a change.
Your nephew probably just doesn’t know any better because he is viewing you as a parent substitute and he can’t place himself in your shoes easily. However, you should know better as it really is not a kindness to stick with a situation that is not working for you and which is colouring your opinion of him unfairly and will possibly impact family feelings long term. The question should be not what will moving out will cost him each month, but what will create the happiest and closest relationship you can have as extended family.
In your shoes I would just give an earlier timeline because he is not in a crisis situation. There are lots of rooms for rent, and it is a much better time to find apartments that it has been for a long time. Your inaction is keeping him stuck in a dependent situation which is not good for him as he can afford to move out and saving some money each month is really not the issue – inertia is. Let him know that if he is really stuck in future he can stay for a shorter time as needed, and that you love him and want him to visit as much as possible. Reach out to his parents and let them know everything kindly as well.
I lived with extended family when I was 19. Looking back, I think I stayed a bit too long and would have benefited from my own adult space earlier. I ended up greatly enjoying having my own friends over and have lifelong friends from that period of time.
Also, as an adult I remain grateful to the family members that helped me and I now have the resources to help their extended family members. It is satisfying and it is always worth it to think long term and not allow resentment to colour anything.
Percent changes doesn’t mean much during the low sales weeks of the year.
You better clarify when summer begins, Out by May1st or June1st. Do it Now.
#318)
Tell him, due to the rising cost of inflation the rent goes up $100 per month from here on out. You wouldn’t be kicking him out, rather putting a fire under his ass. Find a room to rent elsewhere for him.
In reference to the Post of Nov 27/28 2023 about Land Lift and Community Amenity Contribution (CAC) fees. I’ve just started the book ‘Progress and Poverty’ by Henry George originally published in 1879 and quite popular at the time and an influence at least to some degree apparently to economists after that. I haven’t read enough to form an opinion one way or the other about his ideas but I am interested in reading it all. Not 100% sure how it all fits together but thought that I would mention it here. The book is available (free) through Project Gutenberg as a epub/ Kindle. Also, there is a Substack (blog?) available at progressandpoverty@substack.com which sends out somewhat regular posts – not my Substack.
Yes it’s causing resentment on my part for sure. I want my space back and we are just enabling him now, but I recognize there’s a housing crisis and feel guilty for even considering kicking him out. I would be viewed/vilified as the out-of-touch Gen X’er who doesn’t understand how hard it is for this generation. At least, that’s the sense I get from Reddit.
I guess I’m trying to peel the band-aid off gently instead of ripping it off? I feel like because I said “summer” that it’s my own fault for giving such a long timeline and now I have to just live with that. I hope I don’t have to be the ‘mean Auntie’ and tell him to leave, but I am working up the courage to do that.
agreed, your boots on the ground observations would be a better indicator.
#315). This one has a two car garage above the hydraulic ramp as well…
Too small of a sample size to draw an conclusions at this point.
I myself like the higher density changes , but it will produce few results as there’s much more than zoning going on in housing . I do think there are spots where the numbers will work , but few people really can afford the missing middle . We probably only have rich and poor buyers , and we are already have homes for them to buy
#312).
So a house without a driveway doesn’t have to pay this “exclusive use” fee? I thought we were doing the city a favour by having two on site parking slots? What about a two car garage bringing the total number of on site parking slots to four…Is there an “exclusive use” fee there as well? Are they going to start charging us by the car?
This would be the homeowner paying the city for exclusive use of the street frontage taken up by the driveway. A bit different.
The reality is that there is no silver bullet to fix housing. The NDP is firing a whole lot of silver buckshot at the housing issue and hoping to score some hits.
With the zoning changes in particular I feel it’s likely to produce some additional housing at least. Some municipalities will work hard to sabotage it but other communities will embrace it and more multi-unit construction will happen there. And if it totally fails then at least by the standards of government initiatives it won’t have been a particularly costly failure.
I’m also not worried about the death of the SFH. There is still lots of demand for that product and it is obviously still allowed.
#309).
People In James Bay rent parking spaces In driveways all the time…My Sister pays $350 per month. Its a stones throw to her work. She splits It with her job share partner. It costs more but Its always there.
Yes, and make sure to add that to homes with driveway access that would otherwise be parking frontage value that someone paying the $200 for street parking could use. Even call it a “car access convenience fee”… Since it reserves space just for someone with a driveway. Can we bring back pay toilets as well? Lots of ways to run up costs….
#307). I don’t think Its a few minuets they are editable, rather your last post only can be edited.
Curious Cat,
Interesting, well written post. Thanks
#305).
I do, you can’t really view It until Its posted.
Everyone (including Leo) sometimes edits a post in the few minutes they are editable.
If this upsets you, wait a few minutes before replying, or if you do reply immediately, realize that recent posts get edited and they might change.
Making an issue about that is silly.
That spot is worth more than that. Average car is 15′ by 6′. At 90 sq.ft, the price should be set at at least a 1/4 of what people pay to rent a unit at the Janion. These are basically single family car parking spots, so they should command a premium.
That’s been clear for a while.
Don’t know what the point of doing it in bad faith is. Changing their posts after the fact to misrepresent what they’re arguing is bizarre behaviour.
#301).
And a few more of these…
In order to help the developer to figure out the economics of underground parking the city should start charging a $200 a month fee for overnight street parking. There is no reason for the city to provide a free parking lot to snyone.
Technically (i.e. according to the census) you’re not, but you are in practical terms. 🙂
Great, this is being done. Parking minimums should be abolished, and the developer is best positioned to figure out how much parking is needed to sell the units. Province has stepped in to ensure that cities can’t do single family zoning around skytrain and transit anymore.
Impossible to build rapid transit to effectively service SFHs unless you want to triple your taxes. I don’t really like sprawl (would prefer us not to pave everything) but given I live in yesteryear’s sprawl, I’m also not particularly opposed to greenfield development.
Land value tax does this. Unfortunately not something that is likely to be politically feasible. Existing owners (especially elderly) would be crushed in the transition so no party will bring this in.
I’m in favour of most of them because I know that solving the problem requires an all of the above approach. I think I’ve been pretty consistent on that front.
At 40, technically my wife and I live with parents. Mother in law moved into the suite when we bought the house a decade ago.
Great setup. She’s got an affordable place to live in retirement (we don’t charge rent). Kids have their grandma, we have someone to watch the house, help with the kids and garden. We enjoy each others company and neither side interferes with the lives of the others.
I know this doesn’t work with many parent/child relationships, but when it works it’s great.
Cheap shot. I’ve also stated what I want to see done that would solve the housing problem, that’s not “just here for arguing”.
And for the record, here’s what I would like to see done to help housing:
—— build more mega towers, all with sufficient underground parking
——-build more SFH (using greenfield development and some unproductive ALR land). Build rapid transit to service them.
——- increase density of existing homes by lower taxes based on higher occupancy, higher taxes of low occupancy. That incentivizes suites and larger household sizes (ie families) in larger dwellings(SFH).
You’ve argued with most or all of those . Yet I don’t accuse you of “not wanting to solve the problem and just being here to argue”. You just have different opinions than me, and I think it’s valuable to hear all sides.
And here’s some of the ideas that I argued with you about where I think I was right.
– “affordability is cyclical” you told us , with upper and lower bounds drawn onto the charts, controlled by “consumer sentiment”.
– “money laundering investigations” by BC government are worthwhile and important to help the housing crisis .
-“homes are affordable”. I started saying that in 2018 and they were a lot more affordable than today. . But I still got arguments from lots of HHVers back then for daring to call them “affordable”. And about $800K SFH being unaffordable because they’d need to pay more than their $1,900 rent, and “affordability is cyclical” as shown on your affordability chart, so let’s just wait for lower prices.
yup, you guys spoiled him. Better to rip the band-aid off now and let him explore the real world on his own
So for sales it’s +37% for the first 2 weeks and now +22% for first 3 weeks., that means increase in sales in the 3rd week of Jan the YoY is roughly 9%. For new lists its +25% for the first 2 weeks and now +17% for the first 3 weeks, translates into 3rd week of Jan YoY increase of 2%. Looks like things are normalizing after a spike to start the year.
Curious cat , the lot of them sound immature and are just spinning their tires , sorry it sounds mean . I don’t think they are unusual today and that’s where it’s at . Having said that i do know some 30 ish young folk that are already very successful
#292).
Perhaps Its the sellers knowing Its the buyers looking at the listing agent?
Oops good catch, “prospective” buyer. Oh btw and it’s “Sir Daddy” to you 😉
#290).
We are prepared to gift each of our boys 100k…But we want to know where its going. They are going to have to wait for the rest, I don’t know how long we are going to live. I do however know that only the good die young…So that could be quite some time.
Month to date numbers:
Sales: 181 (up 22% compared to same time last year)
New lists: 640 (up 17%)
Inventory: 2108 (up 23%)
Getting in quick with a final comment before Leo puts up a new post…
I know 3 younger Millenials or older Gen Z (96/97/98) that are still living with family. The 27-yo has a Comp Sci degree from UVic, a job with the provincial govt making 60k+ and still lives with his parents. He does want to move out, however his parents are Boomers (75+) and have significant health issues so he’s living there to provide assistance. He told me he’s been looking at 2bed condos downtown to purchase, as he thinks those would be easiest to sell, though his budget is 400k max and realistically, he thinks he can’t afford the mortgage PLUS the strata fees, so he feels stuck. His parents want him to stay at home forever and tell him he can have the house when they die, meanwhile, it would make more sense to sell their GH house and just buy 2 condos with the proceeds, one for the son, one for them, and then they no longer have to deal with the stairs and their son can start adulting.
The 25-yo is a young mother in Wpg, she moved out a couple years ago living in the same complex as her mom (who’s a lifelong renter), but then didn’t like her job/chosen career path so she quit and she and her son moved back in with Mom last summer and looks like this will be a pretty permanent situation. It’s been 6+ months of no job/schooling, but Mom has no problem with this and has basically taken over parenting the young son.
The 26-yo (turning 27 this year) is living with me, has been for over 2 years now, but we are charging what I guess is cheap rent ($500) so there’s been little motivation for him to launch. At first the goal was to help a family member move here from another province while they went to school. At the time the rent seemed like a lot because he was paying less than that living at home and is not a big bedroom. Well he got his certificate, did not get a job in that field, and has been working in the restaurant industry (less than F/T) and travelling all over. My spouse feels like we are subsidizing his lifestyle. (He’s been to Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver, Europe last summer, just came back from 2 weeks in NZ and going to Wpg to see a concert in March.) I had a talk with him last fall about figuring out his life, what does he want to do, and told him I expected him to move out by summer if he’s not going to school. He has looked at a few apartments in town, but he has champagne taste (won’t take a bus, only ubers or taxis, doesn’t have a license so won’t look at anything outside of the core, wears name-brand clothes and buys all the latest gadgets) and has only been looking at brand new which of course, is very expensive. Studios are 1700/mth min, One bedrooms 1850+. I feel like he will struggle a lot on his own (based on observation) so I’ve been trying to encourage him to team up with a roommate so he did go view a 2bed at the new apartment being built, The Gorge, but the unit he likes is $2800. Still, $1400 is less than a 1 bed and I said he could split the cost of utilities, but this is still triple what he’s used to paying. But now after his NZ trip, he’s telling me he doesn’t want to sign a one year lease because he ‘might’ move to NZ.
100%
Sir Goof, what is a “perspective” buyer?
Which is a perfectly legitimate reason for being here, let’s acknowledge.
That article is from February 2022 when interest rates were near bottom. If many young buyers needed help with payments then, what about today?
“Approximately 40 per cent of the parents of younger homeowners in Ontario say that they helped their children financially with their purchase, with the average gift exceeding $70,000.” ( i wonder if couples needed help from both parents, 70K x 2 = 140K +?)
“Meanwhile, 38 per cent of parents who helped financially with a house purchase said that they help their children pay their mortgage payments, suggesting that a not insignificant number of younger homeowners would struggle to pay their bills without assistance.”
https://www.cp24.com/news/poll-finds-more-than-40-per-cent-of-young-homeowners-received-financial-help-from-parents-average-gift-surpassed-70k-1.5791105?cache=yes%3Fot%3DAjaxLayout%3FautoPlay%3Dtrue%3Fot%3DAjaxLayout%3FautoPlay%3Dtrue%2F7.449716%3FclipId%3D1691853
I went to an open house in Oak bay on the weekend, attending realtor said it had been quiet. House was origianlly listed at 2.3, 6 months ago now down to 1.9.
I would take a bet that parent’s lines of credit (or possibly savings), have seen an offsetting increased amount to go with that reduction. Can’t insure over a million currently so as prices rise people will find other ways around it.
High ratio share has gotten absolutely crushed in recent years (note chart to 2022)
That means Ontario (which has well over 1/2 the foreign students in all of Canada) and BC will be hit the hardest, while some provinces will be hit very little or not at all.
However I don’t think BC approaches the farce that is the status quo in Ontario, where private sector McColleges affiliated with regular colleges operate from strip malls.
Lol that is my target rental demographic!
35% (in reality it’s north of 40%) cut in study permits in 2024. Gonna be a mad scramble in the education sector this year. PPP students no longer eligible for work permits so that is going to crush a lot of schools in Ontario (many of them likely deserve to be).
What would you call it when California says you must allow 4 units and cities say ok but you get less floor space if you want to build a duplex than it you want to build a house?
I’ve been saying this from the start.
It’s a big positive step to have a provincial backstop but I’m not kidding myself that it’s going to solve all the problems. We know cities are working to undermine it already.
By the way when we discussed a city that upzoning actually is working in, you were complaining about parking. So when it works it’s bad, when it doesn’t work it’s bad. Pretty clear you have no interest in solving anything and are just here to argue.
if all the other numbers work with the 5 year rate then ya, no point in introducing more variables outside your control into any investment.
So you would go with a 5-year fixed right now?
There are uninsured in the low 5’s last time I checked. If it’s an investment property then I don’t know why you want to gamble on rates, if you need to gamble on rates to make the investment work then the economics are likely too risky to begin with.
I don’t know about 1%. There are 5 year fixed mortgages as low as 4.94% but that is insured. Un-insured on an investment property is more like 5.69ish on a 5-year fixed, I would think?
My thought is I would probably pay even a bit higher and gamble with a 1-year fixed or variable. Two years isn’t a ton of time to make up a higher rate for three years.
Some stats from our 2023 VREB survey
How did the buyer finance the purchase?
Conventional mortgage (20% or more down payment) 1,516 51.6%
High ratio mortgage (less than 20% down payment) 233 7.9%
All cash 861 29.3%
Don’t know 326 11.1%
Total Responses 2,936 100.0%
^Is it just me or is the high ratio mortgage number @ 7.9% incredibly low? (that being said it is what I see in my personal business give or take, rarely do I have high ratio clients).
How did your buyer first learn about this property?
The buyer located the property on a REALTOR®’s automated listing search service 1,518 51.63%
A REALTOR® (you or another) located the property and informed the buyer 791 26.90%
REALTOR.ca 317 10.78%
Your personal website 72 2.45%
OpenHousesVictoria.ca 16 0.54%
Other website 29 0.99%
Real estate sign 36 1.22%
Relative or friend 44 1.50%
Real estate tabloid (Real Estate Victoria, The Real Estate Book, etc.) 2 0.07%
Classified ad 1 0.03%
Other 69 2.35%
Don’t know 45 1.53%
Total Responses 2,940 100.00%
^What does this tell me? By just being on MLS (even via mere posting) and offering a reasonable cooperating commission you cover off >90% of how buyers locate a property. Everything else including neighbourhood expert is non-sense, but sellers eat it up.
+1.
And clients have only themselves to blame for picking a higher priced agent providing the same service.
Leo: “BC likely has a couple years of back and forth of a similar nature [dismal upzoning result, like California] “.
And so the dampening of upzoning-increasing-supply expectations in BC already begins… So if it flops here, it’s the cities fault… got it. When do the BC University professors who come up with these ideas become accountable, at least to the extent that the government stops listening to them.
Pass bad policy that municipalities can torpedo, get bad results. Pass good policy, get good results. Problem in California was they legalized 4 units on paper but cities just restricted FSR or pulled other tricks to make those 4 units not buildable in reality. BC likely has a couple years of back and forth of a similar nature ahead of it as cities try to pass policy to neutralize the intent of the provincial backstop
I doubt the average house hunter has any understanding of that. I think bottom line is people need to qualify at 7%+ for houses in those areas and most of those perspective buyers will also need to unload their current house.
Upzoning has recently flopped in California.
California has a housing crisis too, and upzoned the entire state two years ago (Jan 1, 2022) , by a bill called SB9, allowing anyone to build up to 4 homes on their existing lot. Results so far have been a dismal failure – in a state with 17 million existing dwellings (about same number as Canada, and 100X Victoria), uptake of this idea has by applications has been close to zero in the first 12 months. People expecting BC’s upzoning to significantly increase supply should be prepared for similar dismal results.
Here’s an article about it https://twitter.com/DrCameronMurray/status/1748930411953275387
Max , Nelson is a nice lil town , everything is alittle bit cheaper there , and the weather is nicer up around Russell beach . Could see myself having longer stays there as im not married to Canada
#264).
Can you live in Panama permanently?
U.S. and Canadian citizens can move to the Central American country if they meet the requirements for immigration and take the steps needed to obtain a visa.
Pensioner: Retirees who earn at least $500 per month can qualify for permanent residence status. If you’re moving with your spouse, you must earn at least $600 per month between the two of you. You will be asked to provide bank statements and proof of continued payments from the government agency or company that pays your pension, such as a notarized letter.
https://blog.remitly.com/immigration/moving-to-panama/
#263).
I want this one.
Max I would but I don’t any more competing offers for a seaside villa
New lists looking pretty healthy
#260).
Please enlighten me on New Zealand…I have family there. Climates pretty much Identical.
Vicreanalyst , the opens in oak bay Fairfield’s where pretty quiet, not sure if the uptick in inflation was a downer or still early in the year. I guess all bets off with a real possibility of trump back in for 4 more years . New Zealand here I come
Jason Binab and his Agency has done well in Oak Bay. Re/Max and Newport list more and sell more in Oak Bay. But his firm is up there among the top three or four.
As for a buyer’s agent? Pick anyone as they are all generally competent and fairly incorruptible.
I think for those that are not familiar with the area they might consider hiring an appraiser to assist them in formulating an offer to purchase. It’s only a couple hundred bucks and they do all the research and analysis for you. They can do a desk top analysis on most properties in 2 or 3 hours which may give you more confidence in presenting an offer knowing that the offer lays within a reliable and reasonable range of market value. Then you can decide how much you really want the property. if you can’t live without the home then you may still want to pay over market but at least you will know the range that is or is not reasonable.
#257).
Did you happen to catch the big fight at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada last night? This Is Canada on the world stage…
https://twitter.com/kalebra07/status/1748887086797578543
Turn up the volume…The message Is very clear.
This is where the US economy and Canadian economy are diverging. The US economy is robust (3-5% GDP growth) while Canadian economy is anemic. On “per capita” basis, the Canadian GDP has been shrinking for a while. Unemployment in US is still at record lows whereas it has been rising in Canada for a while. Due to the slow drops in inflation, rates won’t go down as fast as people want. It’s truly a reflection of the drop in Canadian productivity relative to US productivity.
#255).
Especially on the high end market such as Oak Bay. Jason Binab has done very well over the years.
What about all the years we’ve had in the last 10 years where you list on Thursday and take the best unconditional offer Monday night? Sellers still lean towards the “neighborhood expert” or established realtor.
Either way nothing will change. Everyone will continue to complain about real estate fees to no end, but as I said last week no one will ever take action. Presented with the option of a 2% not well known agent and the 3% neighborhood expert they will go with the neighborhood expert, only to complain about fees. Out of the 52 comments on FB not one person suggested someone with lower fees.
So he paid around 1% more to be able to get out 2 years earlier (compared to 5 year fixed)? So then that becomes a math question, he has to make up that extra 1% he paid over the 3 years with lower rates in the last two to break even. Back of the envelope math indicates the rate in the last 2 years need to be 3.9% or lower to make this worthwhile.
how were the open houses yesterday?
Isn’t this people perceive the realtors with more sales as more knowledgeable about the market so when those realtors tell the sellers they need to drop the price then they tend to listen, this then becomes a feedback loop.
#250).
I still have 22 months to wait It out.
I have it covered with variable and fixed mortgages lol
#248).
“If I Were the Devil, I’d have a third of its real estate and four-fifths of its population, but I would not be happy until I had seized the ripest apple on the tree”.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/if-i-were-the-devil/
if we knew what his quote was on the variable or 1yr fxd , just do the math on break-even estimates after a year
Varaible would be higher but if rates start dropping later this year the variable does too plus you can easily get out and into a fixed (that may end up being substantially lower than 6.39%), or a 1 year fixed so you can refinance this time next year?
If the client was only approved for a 6.39% 3yr fixed, sounds like his alternative approvals like variable would be a much higher than equivalent going rates too. Best to do a break-even analysis to see where comfort is on deciding one versus the other. e.g., using your variable rate, could assume the market expectations for cut over next twelve months and do the math where you’d stand over remaining term all else equal etc
I had a client recently complete on a pre-sale condo and he went with a 6.39% 3-year fixed. Not sure what everyone’s thoughts are? Does one go variable right now and then wait to switch into a 5-year fixed later this year? Or do you go 1 or 2 year fixed? 3 seems like an odd number to pick given the current situation, but maybe it is the correct play?
+1, common sense.
Recent post on the Oak Bay Local FB Page
“Hello OBL
Can someone recommend a site or link where realtors are rated ?
Basically looking to see who has more sells in the oakbay area ? Is there a way to find out ?
Many thanks”
and then 53 comments with recommendations on great Oak Bay realtors. This is why the fees will never come down, people are asking and looking for the wrong things. Someone selling the most in a certain area just means they obtain the most listings in that area, but the consumer thinks they are more effective; therefore, paying the fees when they have a lot of cheaper options, and then complaining about the fees they paid when the opted not to go with cheaper options.
Pardon me Dad for not understanding the meaning/definition of the word “restrictive” when used in a cost-of-borrowing sense.
My main ask for a real estate agent is to be available as needed, find out unique info on the properties we should know about or intel from sellers that could be helpful, and be good at negotiating the small details when it comes to the final offer process.
I’ve never based decisions around their suggestions for pricing as they are naturally self interested and ideally just want the transaction to go thru to get their piece of the payment.
And agree Leo on interest rate predictions. it’s fair that track records for banks and “experts” are terrible, market expectations are the best predictor we can rely on but even that take it with a grain of salt. Never an easy decision to figure out what mortgage rate to take when buying a property. Back when mortgage rates were at rock bottom, it was “so obvious” to lock in five year fixed but of course majority went variable to save the extra bit of interest since everybody was predicting interest rates to stay low for much longer. It seems like an easy choice looking back but most rely on what banks or mortgage brokers suggest, which is often the wrong outcome. but we don’t have 30yr mortgages like most americans so it’s a bit less impactful in comparison. Some in US locked in at crazy low rates for 30yrs so will never need to worry if they ended up in their what was planned as their forever home.
An old one but a good one:
Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready.
“I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory.
We are very sorry, but it’s the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others” he is told by the doorman.
Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss.
So the doorman leads him to the dorm.
They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants.
“See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!”
“That’s wonderful!” says Albert.
“We can discuss mathematics!”
“And here is your second room mate.
His IQ is 150!”
“That’s wonderful!” says Albert.
“We can discuss physics!”
“And here is your third room mate.
His IQ is 100!”
“That’s wonderful!
We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!”
Just then another man moves out to capture Albert’s hand and shake it.
“I’m your last room mate and I’m sorry, but my IQ is only 80.”
Albert smiles back at him and says, “So, where do you think interest rates are headed?”
Realistically no one has a clue where rates are going, including the central banks. All the big bank forecasters failed to see the jump in rates, and they keep guessing because that’s what they’re being paid to do. If anyone could reliably predict rates they’re cashing cheques not writing about it.
Market expectations are likely your best bet as far as a projection since they are a reflection of best available information, but even that has a poor track record. Right now some more people are banking on cuts, including in the mortgage market, with a few more folks going variable hoping that it will pay off, despite the rates being substantially higher than fixed right now (under 5% for fixed, vs over 6% for variable)
re: Leaseholds
England has a long history of residential leaseholds, but are going to prohibit leaseholds on new houses.
Residential leaseholds are seen as “an outdated feudal system that needs to go”.
Were realtors interest rate and CPI experts before covid?
True, but numbers like the inflation rate and unemployment – and dare we say the RE market – do say something, and they aren’t saying restrictive to me.
the market is pricing in and expecting several cuts this year. It would be a big shock if we don’t see lower rates within the next 6 months. But yes no point in this debate, but do think real estate agents at least a have fair point when talking about lower rates being a reason to buy nowadays. It was everyone’s worry last year when rates were going up and up and up
The average rate over some arbitrary period of time says nothing about whether rates are currently restrictive or not.
Anyhow, I’ll leave it at that, so as not to start another one of these pointless debates about where rates might end up.
I think that interest rates are actually low at the moment all things considered.
Today’s BoC’s benchmark interest rate of 5.0% is below average.
Date Range: 1990 – 2023 Average: 5.78%
Highest: 16%, Feb 1991 Lowest: 0.25%, Apr 2009
https://www.fxempire.com/macro/canada/interest-rate
Rates are restrictive right now. I think it would be reasonable to expect that at some point in the future, they will be lower.
#230).
Are there people out there that are actually banking on lower Interest rates though? I think people have adjusted and this Is just the new normal moving forward.
Some have better credentials than others:
“Derek Holt is Vice President and Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank in Toronto. He is responsible for leading the team in the application of economic and financial market forecasts and research to the needs of Scotiabank’s global institutional investor clients and major bank clients…”
That’s the good thing about the modern world. There’s an analyst to match any priors
I want to thank whoever it was here that introduced me (us) to Derek Holt of Scotia Bank Economics Publications.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications.html
It is so refreshing to read learned reports from someone in the FIRE industry who does not peddle the wishful-thinking mantra that CB rates will soon be dropping:
“Next Week’s Risk Dashboard
-Global inflation risk is rising again
-Soaring shipping costs to pass through to higher inflation
– Global wage pressures maintain upside risk to inflation
-Bank of Canada to hold, push back on cuts…
In light of this recent reacceleration of underlying inflation, the rise in global shipping costs, and the already present idiosyncratic drivers of Canadian inflation risk, I would be surprised to hear Macklem sounding incrementally more dovish. I think he’ll sound more cautious if anything and continue to intimate that markets are overly aggressive in pricing near-term rate cuts…”
#225). This ones a bit more realistic for today.
https://www.proskypanels.com/fake-window/
You should offer your services at open houses to answer questions on renos etc, charge a fee to the listing agent and also get potential clients.
#224). “Fake window light product EDGEWIN is a user-friendly product with LED lighting. When the installation is done, the image you selected from the image gallery will appear as a realistic window view. Offering ease of installation thanks to its modular structure, EDGEWIN allows you to achieve your goal in about 10 minutes”.
#223).
What’s an Inside window? An LED screen with drapes?
Vicreanalyst , ya pretty much , I am always in awe of real estate economist . I wonder why they are wasting they’re talent standing around open houses
Lol looks the car salesman that sold a Toyota highlander to my mom took his at the union down unless it sold. I remember he was telling me how easy the money is and was showing me the ad on the app. The last list price was like 50k less than his purchase price and I think it was still priced $50k too much (I think the ask was 640k or something for a 600 sqft 1 bedroom with inside window, it was top floor though).
Rates are coming down blah blah blah.
Yep back to the other crises, that’s real estate . I will be hitting some opens today in oak bay and Fairfield and listen to some wisdom the used house salesman will be spewing
Super interesting listen from a guy that orchestrated massive mortgage fraud in the US https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/lex-fridman-podcast/id1434243584?i=1000641998244
Sat. morning and time to get back to housing. Not seeing a whole lot of new listings in the Janion. I assumed that there would be more by now.
Doctors can incorporate.
Family doctors? Not buying that. Friday golf would be as wild as it gets for that crowd.
Whether it’s real or a head fake remains to be seen, but there definitely is an “upbeat” feel to the economy and housing prospects so far in 2024. Consumer sentiment stateside up big time…
[jan 19, 2024] “Americans Are Suddenly a Lot More Upbeat About the Economy
Consumer sentiment gauge posted the largest two-month gain since 1991
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-finally-feeling-better-about-the-economy-e964804f
#213).
If I told you they love heli skiing and night time sky diving the most…what would your thoughts on that be?
Not quite as many people in that bracket have child and/or spousal support to pay and in lot of cases multiple ones. But yes the concept is correct, adding to your networth especially liquid networth is a very attractive proposition.
I can buy that
#210).
Okay, well lets just say that they absolutely love working and doing a good job…But they love golf more.
Yes, very true.
The amazing thing is that there were previous times and places that taxes were up to 98% of income. In that case, sure, why work more to only get 2%. The Beatle song tax Man was written for that since the Beatles were getting taxed 95% in the 1960’s Britain “that’s one for me, 19 for you… tax Man!”
You’re right.
If you’re at the highest marginal tax rates, your income is $200k+. In that case, you have very likely paid all of your living expenses and whatever you earn after-tax is likely directly adding to your net worth. Compared to say the first $100k of income which was all expenses. So why wouldn’t people want extra income? The “all goes to to government” is an excuse as you say.
#206).
To a certain level. A level that makes no sense for the effort.
It’s just an excuse for not wanting to work or get a job that pays more. At my work lots of people’s bonuses have the 54% deduction taken right off by payroll, do people complain about taxes? absolutely! Is anyone saying they want to do a shittier job and get a smaller bonus? nope!
Does anyone actually believe that? If they really did they would never ask for a raise or want a better paying job – or envy someone with one.
Seems to me it’s another one of those things in the political sphere that people know isn’t true, but they think it sounds cool or something.
If you are making say 200k gross a year instead of 300k gross a year…your after-tax income will always be lower as we have a marginal tax system (all else equal). Yes, you won’t net the same proportion when grossing 300k but you will still walk away with more.
So odd how people assume it just all goes to the government when you make a higher salary
#203).
Well yeah!
#200).
I get It…your accountant had better have a very sharp pencil though.
https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/average-marginal-tax-rates#how_marginal_tax_rates_vary_by_province_territory
LMAO, what family doctor doesn’t set up his practice as a business? And what kind of dumb ass accountant does that doctor have to advise on paying themselves in a manner that they end up at the 54% bracket?
These stories are just bs. More likely the doctor just doesn’t feel like working that much and uses the tax argument as an excuse.
They may need to address the idea of “the doctor isn’t accepting new patients” . What good is a medical system full of closed-to-new-patients family doctors offices? Maybe encourage all doctors to accept new patients. Yes, that will worsen the wait times for existing patients. But it’s better than a “two-tier” system where there are lucky people-with-doctors and unlucky people-with no doctors.
Maybe a simple idea, pay doctors 25% more across the board if they are family doctors in offices and they are accepting new patients you call one up, and you get an appointment, maybe in 2 months, but you have a family doctor.
Note to Leo: thanks for being “patient”… we will soon get back to housing.
#199).
I understand that…If It was 100% they wouldn’t be able to eat. If you want to work like dog I guess your right…YOLO.
if more money to incentivize doctors isn’t going to cut it because they’d rather be golfing, well that’s a nice problem to have, isn’t it? So maybe, we do a version of this where we say force them by law (with no more pay – so they’d be happy!) to have walk-in clinic hours say half the day – they can opt out of this, but if they do, they’re forced to wear a giant button that says “I’m a Doctor – ask me what I get paid”…
More income is more after-tax income too. The top tax rate isn’t 100%, it is 54%. There’s no scenario where “it all goes to the government”
marginal tax system, it’s worth learning more on it
#195).
It would just go to the taxman…That wouldn’t solve their “can’t afford nice enough houses here” Problem.
When I was young, I used to pound In lots of overtime…10 hour days, weekends, whatever. My accountant made It very clear by actually showing me a chart. I never worked overtime again.
There are doctors that want to make more money. We are told that some can’t afford nice enough houses here, that would be one reason for them to make more money.
#193).
Like some kind of side hustle? To make extra money? He doesn’t want to make any extra money…That’s why he takes Fridays off.
Right, this idea would incentivize the doc by making extra money to see patients-without-doctors and seeing them after hours. So maybe your doc works 1-9pm on Thursday instead, and for four hours (5-9pm) he accepts walkins (anyone) if they pay $30. So he sees some patients-without-doctors and makes more money. The key part of this idea is the doc office can;’t say “the doctor isn’t accepting new patients” during that after hours clinic – all are welcome.
#191).
My Doctor takes Fridays off to play golf…He tells me It all goes to the Government If he doesn’t. Same for my Dentist. They both open their doors at 9am then close them at 5pm Mon-Thur… There Is no “seen outside of regular office hours”.
Here’s an idea to improve family doctor access:
“$30 User fees, only after hours and if walkins (ie anyone) accepted”
There should be a $30 user fee for any visit to ANY family doctor for a patient seen outside of regular office hours (9-5 mon-Friday), as long as the doctor also accepts walkins during the after hours clinic
That would:
– pay ALL family doctors more (if they work outside office hours and accept walk-ins). By “walkins” I mean anyone can go, don’t need to be an existing patient
– user fee only applies to an after hours visit . The “walkin” visit might be an appointment after hours, but it’s open to anyone, not just existing patients.
– walkins must be accepted so people without doctors can also go
– user fee is paid by patient to doctor on top of MSP fees to doctor
– preserve “free, unlimited” access as anyone can still go within business hours for free
– improve access after hours, which is especially needed in short notice.
– user fee discourages frivolous use of scarce after hours medical resources with trivial problems
– improve chances of someone without a doctor to get seen after hours (since the “free” crowd wouldn’t be going then).
– a doctor doing this is typically going to see 5 patients/hour, so that’s $150 per hour bonus on top of Medicare, a good incentive for the family docs with full practices to start seeing some new patients-without-doctors after hours
This would cost the government nothing.
#189).
Perhaps they don’t like the mandates…I know a lot of nurses don’t.
Thanks for the info, Patrick.
OK, why don’t you folks just make me king for a day, I can fix this doctor-access issue. Any clinic that is willing to go back to the full walk-in-all day model, the doctors there each get paid an extra $50k or so a year. Offset or partially offset by a minimum user-fee (means-tested) of say $30 per person per visit, which also would keep out a large proportion of people who go to a doctor & gum up the works when they have the sniffles because it’s “free”.
Yes yes, I’m sure an MD on this site can tell me why this is nuts, or unfair, or going to the dark side.
😉
#186).
I think the system Is good…But my family has a family practitioner. I can’t even begin to think why this would not be normal for anyone. We certainly pay enough In taxes.
There are many many countries which offer advanced preventative health screening for relatively reasonable prices. For example:
https://hosp.ncgm.go.jp/en/mec/menu.html
https://www.clinicandturkey.com/full-check-up/
And you can get whole body cancer screening in Vancouver:
https://aimmedicalimaging.com/appointments/rates/
Canadian’s antipathy to private medicine is seemingly sustained by the “equation”:
private medicine = US style system = bad.
It’s true that on many measures the US system is bad (while recognizing they also have some of the best doctors, technology and medical research in the world). They pay a lot more than us as percentage of GDP, have some of the worst health outcomes in the developed world, have highly inequitable access, and the job-based insurance decreases labour mobility.
So by comparing our system to one of the worst systems in the world at least some Canadians can still feel good about our system!
“an 80 minute visit with a Doctor at Mayo Clinic – Phoenix is $825”
And IF you could get such a thing in BC in the “system” the internal costs to support that “free” visit for you would be five times as much, contorted by an inefficient, voracious, and unaccountable government department. So, free to you but the thousands will be paid for. By your grandchildren’s taxes.
#183).
The Peninsula Is very nice…In fact I think the entire Greater Victoria Region Is very nice. I prefer the West Shore since I grew up out here and frequent the up Island and like to head out to Sooke from time to time. As a kid I used to love hopping on the bus and heading to the downtown core…It was so vibrant and big with so much to explore. We would just wonder around all day. The experience Itself was probably rather small, but when your young everything is big, being a kid your like a sponge and just absorb everything. To each Is own…The West Shore Is my stomping ground.
You just have to know the best ways to navigate the entire Greater Victoria Region. For example I prefer to take the Duke Point ferry terminal to head to Vancouver Since I have some necessary stops I would like to make along the path anyway.
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-12700-capital-gains/principal-residence-other-real-estate/changes-use/changing-your-principal-residence-a-rental-business-property.html
Ya your cost of borrowing is 3.3% and you can get 5.3% risk free in a GIC. Young or not, whenever you have the chance to risk free arbitrage you should. Regardless I would not pay off a 3.3% mortgage, I would ride that like a rented mule and invest the rest.
Peter, If you want to start at the top, there is the Mayo Clinic, rated # 1 in North America in many categories. You can phone them and find out costs ($). They welcome new patients. Phoenix is likely nearest.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/departments-centers/mayo-clinic-executive-health-program/sections/overview/ovc-20253196
They have an online cost estimator https://estimator.mayoclinic.org/mychartguestpay/GuestEstimates/GetEstimateServices?svcArea=WP-248LIY6F86KM6ag5byC0Z3jg-3D-3D-24L6JEW2DBc04vJLXatZTCiFWT-2BzpNJ9QiIl2ejLsLBHM-3D&isMultiSA=false&location=WP-24NYja3WUW-2BJ6YCYEzTHSGvA-3D-3D-24SRvFZlgPV5wxUBNh9ki6swwr6tF9-2FaQk0Zc-2BjtMn8Io-3D
an 80 minute visit with a Doctor at Mayo Clinic – Phoenix is $825 USD (lab would be additional). If you need referrals, these can be done in Mayo within 24 hours in many cases. They are world famous for this type of care., accepting new patients worldwide for complete assessment.
https://estimator.mayoclinic.org/mychartguestpay/GuestEstimates/GetEstimateDetails?&token=49Sh7FiF0BuMmO3ZvaU2HN2ioB8GjK4blacqcDV4IMA%3D&svcArea=WP-248LIY6F86KM6ag5byC0Z3jg-3D-3D-24L6JEW2DBc04vJLXatZTCiFWT-2BzpNJ9QiIl2ejLsLBHM-3D&location=WP-24NYja3WUW-2BJ6YCYEzTHSGvA-3D-3D-24SRvFZlgPV5wxUBNh9ki6swwr6tF9-2FaQk0Zc-2BjtMn8Io-3D&template=WP-24uLmSrazVENoEu0BDYMg3Eg-3D-3D-24ein7V8-2BxuK-2FyEeZx24fx30fhMNpomXMTW6eDF4dDGw8-3D
Peter, no idea what it costs since we are covered by Medicare.
@ VicRE – yes we ported our mortgage, refinanced the rental with option to have as either a full HELOC so we don’t pay a penalty when we sell or a regular mortgage if we decide to rent.
Arbitrage the 500K? We are young so I definitely would not be leaving all 500 K in a GIC. Would be putting 200 K in an index fund like XEQT or XGRO wihtin our TFSAs. rest possibly @ 4.5% with TDs GIC fund
So you ported your existing mortgage to your new house and refinanced the rental? I would cash out, leave the mortgage and arbtriage the 500k with a GIC and make the 2% spread (10k a year pre tax).
Barrister, would you mind sharing a ballpark $ figure for what something like that costs? Thanks
for what it’s worth, if it were me, I’d sell & get out from under that, but I’m heavily influenced by my fervent desire to never, ever deal with tenants again in my life.
either way, sell or keep, I think you’ll end up doing fine, as I do think Victoria RE prices will maintain their inexorable upwards march with some hiccups along the way
If you turn your principal residence into a rental, it gets an adjusted cost base equal to the market value at the time this happens. If you sell it at some future date, the capital gain is based on the sale price. If you move back in, the capital gain is based on the market value at that time.
It is possible in some scenarios to avoid the capital gain if you move back in, but simply moving to another residence in the same city isn’t one of them.
Private medicine clinics – Agreed. The CMAJ has said that the only two countries with similar restrictions on private medicine besides Canada are Cuba and North Korea.
OK, so the rate on the new property we will move into is 3.3% until June 2026. about $3900/mo. We are comfortable with this for sure as we used to be paying $2200 accelerated bi-weekly. We bring in 300K gross per year my husband and I. No other payments besides normal stuff like insurance etc. And childcare.
The rate on the home we are debating whether to sell or rent will be 5.6% approx $4350/mo 30 yr amort. And yes if it was turned into a rental we would have to pay capital gains on the difference in selling price from the appraised value (1.265) at change in use. We bought it for 660K in 2017 and did everything you can do to a house (drains, roof, windows, doors, interiors, furnace, landscaping etc etc)
Millenial I would keep in mind if you don’t sell and rent it you lose the capital gains exemption because it is no longer your home but an investment property, and will pay it I believe at the time it is turned into a rental at its appraised value, or maybe that only applies when you turn it back to your home if you move back in. I forget exactly but it bears looking into, as you’ll pay it somewhere along the line. If you want to sell why wait? Do you just hope its value is more at that time?
What?? Marko you don’t know what it sells for in a year! What kind of realtor are you!!?!?!
Wait, What is the rate on your new mortgage? Depending on your mortgage prepayment penalty I would pay off as much as you can on the mortgage Unless you can arbitrage it with a GIC or confident of getting a risk adjusted return higher than your mortgage via other investment opportunities. Or if you are running some type of business on the side and want to use the mortgage interest as a write off, but you need to do an assessment to see if its worth it from an after tax perspective.
Readdict, after having lived in both a 1950’s solid home built using Douglas Fir and a modern luxury home I choose the renovated 50’s home.
Marko, preventive medicine has pretty much been dropped , we are really just doing emergency . I myself had a stress test done and that was a favour , but i had the impression that it was really not being performed as much anymore and every human should have one after 50 . If you want preventative medicine , gotta go to private clinics . Otherwise just wait to do a face plant and get emergency care
Marko, that sounds much like the standard checkup I get with the family doctors clinic when I am down here in LA for the winter break. Couple of extra things because of my age and history. Very extensive blood work and breakdown which helps in adjusting some vitamin supplements.
This is the sort of testing everyone deserves to get every year. I am sure that someone here will not agree but I really believe that there is a lot of things they can fix if they only catch things early.
Smart move getting the heart checked as well as getting a full workup.
Max, I do live in the core, and the house I’m currently in is a 1956 build with a 1979 addition. I don’t think your house qualifies as an old house. I did all due diligence including sewer lines and perimeter drains and home inspection when I bought it. Has given me no trouble, I’ve been here 7+ years . Did a minor reno involving removing some drywall (gasp- with asbestos testing first which was negative) in an outside corner bedroom closet to re-insulate it and put a better vapour barrier, etc. on as it was a cold zone. Some cosmetic/decorating upgrades, newer flooring, but it had already had a full renovation of the kitchen and bathroom. It’ll last for a long time yet, and not all houses in the core are old, nor is that the only area I’ve been looking in although I prefer to head the direction of the peninsula rather than to the west shore if not.
What does it sell for in a year?
Just for context of how badly our government has screwed up health care. I was in Croatia (1/3 GDP per capita versus Canada) for Christmas/New Year and my friend mentioned she had surgery so I asked her what her symptoms were and she said “no symptoms, picked up on ultrasound as part of my yearly physical.” So I am like hmmm interesting, I haven’t had a family doctor in Victoria in over 8 years let alone a physical or ultrasound, ever.
Same friend recommends a private clinic (since I don’t have public health care in Croatia) that offers physicals I call and get an appointment two days later at 8:30 am. I left the clinic at 10:15 am and managed to have full bloodwork/urine sample, spirometry, EKG, abdominal ultrasound/prostate ultrasound performed by a radiologist, physical exam by urologist, physical exam by internist + 15 min consult + email review by internist of all the bloodwork, etc for 200 euros. Here you can see all the packages and costs (scroll down) – https://www.croatiapoliklinika.hr/usluge/sistematski-pregledi/
I was super impressed with how the private clinic functioned it was literally from one room to another like a factory assembly line but I think that is simply a function of private efficiency. All my questions/concerned answered.
My cholesterol was a bit high and the internist gave her opinion that meds weren’t required, but I wanted a second opinion from a cardiologist so I managed to get an appointment for a consult at a different cardiology clinic for 100 euros, within 24 hours at 7 pm at night. Once again, private business, why wouldn’t the cardiologist stay late for an extra 100 eurso. Suggested some dietary changes and then I’ll go back again in the summer.
In Canada on the other hand I can’t even get hold of penicillin for strep throat without going to emerg. How would I even get to a cardiologist without a family doctor for something preventative and non-urgent like cholesterol?
Thanks everyone for the input. Another WWYD question.
Say you could either sell for 1.25 and walk away with 500 k tax free. Use that money to refill TFSAs, pay down mortgage on new home, and about 200K into non registered accounts (other accounts are maxed, TFSAs and non registered used for downpayment on new family house).
Or don’t sell immediately and rent it out min 1 year lease @ 4-5K per month, mortgage approx $4500/mo.
Harrison and Telus are great , but they too have a long wait now just to throw your money at them . Canada’s healthcare doesn’t work and will never work
How does it compare to other developed nations? An absolute comparison for this is meaningless.
I live in Ontario and I can tell you a lot of people don’t think this is any kind of solution. The money going to these private clinics is coming out of the public health care budget and it appears that in many cases the private clinics will receive more funding than hospitals for the same procedure. That means fewer services in total.
I think that much of the increase in life expectancy is due to this, not to any improvements in health care itself:
https://uwaterloo.ca/tobacco-use-canada/adult-tobacco-use/smoking-canada/historical-trends-smoking-prevalence
The only answer. No matter how much one enjoys flaunting one’s socialist pretensions it does not balance the pain of one single family waiting months to get their toddler’s hearing tested.
https://ottawa.citynews.ca/2024/01/17/private-clinics-expansion-ontario/
Good point. Victoria (along with North Vancouver) has the worst waiting times in Canada for walk-ins. https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/victoria-north-vancouver-highest-wait-times-walk-in-clinics
And the “walk-ins” that do exist are some hybrid of telemedicine and appointments based system. Or they have just closed period.
I agree that for huge numbers of people, access to family doctors is atrocious in Victoria, and that includes walkins which are disappearing fast anyway.
I do stick with my main point that, despite this significant problem, overall health outcomes in Canada (longevity + 4 years) have improved since previous generation. And no, this doesn’t mean that it’s easy to find or see a family doctor in Victoria – it isn’t!
That one was a puzzler. Beginning to wonder if Patrick lives in Victoria, Texas or maybe Vitoria, Brazil.
Here in Victoria, B.C., Canada true walk in clinics don’t really exist anymore.
As an anecdote: My recent medical care has either been at emerg (slow, but not terrible at 3 AM on a Monday morning) or through an extended family member that is a doctor (against their rules but thankfully willing to bend the rules).
Patrick, I’m wondering where you see this? Genuine question. Where I live, the nearest clinics (Sidney) all have signs by appointment only – I really don’t see a true walk-in clinic anywhere in my community. Then when you try to phone for appointment at the time the phone lines open, they have a message that says full up for the day, or at least that’s been my experience. I haven’t seen a true walk-in clinic open for business since the pandemic started.
#153).
That Is very true. The work around for that was to peel the big yellow onion down layer by layer until you had a white onion In hand…Tie that to your belt and then you were truly the man. No problem with ferry costs…Even the Brentwood Bay ferry.
Only returned to the core in the last year and a bit as prices adjusted down. Through the pandemic I had offers beat out in Sooke (really happy that person came in at 150k over my offer there), Sidney, Brentwood Bay and a couple in between. I am in a better spot now since am passing on places that I would of just bought a year or 2 ago.
Like the time I caught the ferry to Shelbyville? I needed a new heel for m’shoe. So I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on ’em. “Gimme five bees for a quarter,” you’d say. Now where were we? Oh, yeah. The important thing was that I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn’t have any white onions, because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones…
#151).
I understand and appreciate what you guys are doing. You two seem fixated on the core. How old would this SFH be? My house was built In 1981, That’s 43 years old now. 200 amp panel, all copper plumbing, copper wiring, solid bones, new sewer connection that I paid for…I own an old house and I’m fine with that. How old are these SFH that you guys are looking at? 63 – 73 years old now? Have you sent a camera down from the toilet to the street? Perimeter drains? knob and tube in areas? Panel size? on site parking or street parking only? lead pipe waterlines? Hazardous materials In house?
I guarantee Umm Really is not alone in trying to buy for about the last three to four years. I have been also. Distinctly recall the offer that I lost out on a house in multiples over for $60 to an investor who rented it right after, right as the Pandemic was being declared. I think it was March 8, three days before. Then trying quite a few offers throughout the summer and fall and spring and next summer and even into the following spring, then the heydey of the craziness, and pausing as most sane people do or did, then trying different angles, types of properties, with suites, without suites, different locations. I think the sidelines are pretty crowded with folks waiting to buy “finally” if they can qualify and finally get an accepted offer on a house they want, or at least will settle for. Some of us have homes to keep and want to buy another, some want to sell and buy another, some want to buy the first, and some are reassessing what a home is really and dropped out from the single-family realm down to townhomes or condos. Maybe 2024 will be the year? Who knows, I guess it has kept me busy, and probably a few others!
#149).
You can also deep fry donuts using motor oil.
That’s good to hear. Here’s hoping that 2024 is the year.
I have been pulling the trigger over that time (except the 6 months of pure COVID housing madness peak), just see if it finds the target in 2024. What’s the saying: “luck is merely when preparation meets opportunity”.
Agreed. Nothing against people who can pack up their belongings to a storage area and let a stranger live in their home. There’s lots of ways to make money, but I’ll pass on that one. I guess it could work for a single person, I can’t imagine it for a family.
#145). ,
I don’t want hospital medical care costs to Incur. I’ll just go to life labs and get It over with.
My Wife would demand a brand new bed, bedding, and pillows.
“Spend less”… That sounds more like a frivolous New Year’s resolution, akin to “lose weight” and “exercise more.” Best to see what people actually do.
On a side note, umm..really you’ve been close to pulling the “buy house” trigger for 4+ years, is 2024 going to be the year for you?
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/half-of-british-columbians-plan-to-cut-spending-in-2024-td-poll-finds-1.6732923
I guess from what’s being pumped as the upward swing in real estate this year, they all must be cutting back to buy homes….lol
No I didn’t say that, as I believe that access to family doctors in offices is much worse. Access to doctors by walk-in clinics (episodic care) is much better. Access to doctors by tele-medicine is much better, for most it was completely unavailable. Obviously walkins and telemedicine aren’t a substitute for a good family doctor providing longitude care. Just like McDonald’s isn’t a substitute for a home cooked meal, but that doesn’t stop people eating out fast food
“Health care” is bigger than access to family doctors in offices . What I did say is that life expectancy has improved by four years, and there are many other metrics of health overall that have improved along with that.
One thing people forget is about 30% of people don’t seek out medical care, whether it is available or not. They get it when they need it, typically in the last 6 months of life where most hospital medical care costs are incurred. That’s always been the case.
#139).
Our family Is very lucky to have a family practitioner, and he’s young…38 years old. He operates his practice out of his house In the West Shore. My Wife works for the Provincial Government and has extended health care coverage. She has to pay for this extended coverage…Its not free. We have our prescriptions dispensed at Walmart. What was once $2 for 100 generic antibiotics Is now $85 for the same 100 generic antibiotics with the same dispensing fee. She has 100% prescription coverage through her plan. I don’t think healthcare Is Improving at all. Just saying.
Since I am now 50 he has been nagging me to get blood work done. I am one of those that would rather just die than know I’m dying. I feel fine anyway.
I am just not a big fan of strangers living in my residence, I don’t know why. It is odd as I am in hotels on average once a month and have no issues with that.
The dangers of relying strictly on the internet for all information.
Patrick must be the only person in Victoria that thinks ACCESS to health care has improved in 25 years.
What has improved is healthcare itself if you can access it. Numerous diseases are curable or manageable that were much more deadly only 35 years ago. Multiple types of cancer, hepatitis C, Aids to name just a few
#137).
What more could a Man possibly ask for? Solar panel with battery storage for an LED bulb and Cell phone charger Included…Good to go!
#136).
Those Ice fishing tents are by far the best quality…You can even Install a woodstove that you can actually cook on.
Dee, you are conflating two different issues, affordability and equality.
Consider, when the Canadian economy collapses and we are all reduced to living in tents as no one can afford to own or rent, we will have solved the inequality problem. hooray?
Lived experience.
Middle class people today have far more wealth than those of 50 years ago.
Not really – 4 years tacked on at the end doesn’t do much for me, I’m more focused on whether the enjoyable/productive part of my life has increased, and navigating it without a doctor doesn’t help that part. I think it’s a failure of the system, and I think it’s time as a society that we are willing to discuss blank-slate alternatives looking at what has worked in other countries, whether it’s a dual system or some co-pay or whatever.
The better part is better drugs, better medical procedures once intervention is required, better outcomes there, no question. That’s progress. That picture of progress doesn’t measure the parts that are clearly being left behind, like family medicine, which is pretty important to a large segment of the population.
I agree that when picking through stats , today is not the same as yesterday . Lots of folks cannot get a Gp , it’s pretty fuked up . I myself am happy to pay the 800 bucks a month
You ignored the 4 year increase in life expectancy. That should cure your “cold comfort”
Not doubting the stats per se, but do they tell us all is well with the world? I mean, just with the doctors thing, ok we have more doctors, are they in family medicine? can you even go down the road to your local clinic and it’s actually just open for 8 hours for walk-ins? Because I don’t have a doctor & I can’t do that. 2 years on wait list now.
And on the housing, ok what type of housing, I mean someone owning a 600 sq. ft. condo today doesn’t somehow ‘count’ the same way as wanting to own a SFH for a growing family? And I guess I’m thinking more locally, ie. Victoria – are you really saying you don’t see a housing issue here?
I take pretty cold comfort from these stats, personally.
Insured doesn’t mean fixed in time when they want to sell and show the house. Clogged the sink/toilet and there is some flooding, now you have to repair floor/carpet. Just doesn’t sound like a worthwhile endeavor given the risk and stress for what maybe a $5k after tax profit?
Possibly, but if both parties are in agreement prior to the signing and there is no duress or coercion I suspect that the RTB will decline to hear a complaint. I agree that Airbnb is probably a safer route though.
No. It is only acceptable if you or a close family member move back into the home and occupy it for six months. The OP in this case is putting his home up for sale and will not move back in and this will and has attracted liability for a penalty of 12 months’ rent in BC.
Housing, 2023 compared to 1998
Home ownership rate is up.
– 2023 home ownership rate 66.5%
-1998 home ownership rate 64%
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-014-x/2011002/c-g/c-g01-eng.cfm
Healthcare, 2023 compared to 1998
In 2023, 38% more practicing Physicians per capita and life expectancy up 4 years
Canada has 38% more practicing doctors per capita in 2023 https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Canada/doctors_per_1000_people/#:~:text=The%20latest%20value%20from%202021,3.93%20doctors%20per%201%2C000%20people.
Life expectancy has improved from 79 to 83 years https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/life-expectancy#:~:text=The%20current%20life%20expectancy%20for,a%200.18%25%20increase%20from%202021.
Clothes down to storage locker. Everything else such as family photos fit into exactly one bin which also goes down to storage locker. Nothing of any value in the unit otherwise. Don’t own any watches or anything of that nature. If it was a couple of thousand I probably would not do it.
And you pretty much leave everything else?
That is for certain. I find it astounding it’s still up for debate. And the whole thing about well, now you have parents helping with downpayments – uh yes, but (i) they do it mostly because the situation is that desparate, ie it’s a bad sign not a great thing, and (ii) it means we’re sort of perpetuating a two-class society, the haves & have-nots, increasingly defined by housing and parental wealth.
None of that is good for society, in my view.
Moving from one property to another is stressful and you’re just adding to your stress level while making the home more difficult for the real estate agent to arrange showings to potential buyers as the agents are suppose to give notice to the tenant.
Vacate clause is alright but then you can’t rent again until >= 6 months after the fixed term ends.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/housing-and-tenancy/residential-tenancies/policy-guidelines/gl30.pdf
Yes – though I’m not sure if it’s as easy as getting that done in advance, or if that form has to be done at time the tenancy ends. I mean, in the sense that the entire tenant-protection aspect of the rules (can’t force someone out if you’re not moving in yourself) would be pretty much eviscerated if it were as simple as just getting a Form 8 signed at the beginning of a fixed-term tenancy. Don’t get me wrong, for sure I’d be getting that form signed, but I’m just not sure if the RTB would look kindly on it if you just do that at the start of the tenancy? But I haven’t checked the law on this & have no on-the-ground experience with it.
All I am saying is there is a ton of opportunity out there for the taking that didn’t exist in the past. I meet digitals nomads in Croatia on a regular basis doing all sorts of interesting gigs making solid six figures. I also see it in my real estate business here in Victoria regularly.
For example, I sold a townhome for this local couple a few years ago and now they are wildly successful via their YouTube channel -> https://www.youtube.com/@SailingNahoa/
Union job, flex Fridays, low stress and responsibility, and SFH are a thing of the past unforutnately but for those that can think outside of the box there have never been so many opportunities, imo.
Do you mean fully furnished? People expect fully furnished on Airbnb but this is likely a better plan and currently legal if listed as a 30-day plus rental. You can set your availability. Of course you also need staged photos for this and without any reviews you may or may not get a reservation for this period of time. I wouldn’t be as concerned about damages if through Airbnb as you are insured for this and can refuse requests from anyone without ratings.
Same concerns regards to damage etc, It’s really a risk reward question. If I were you I would try to list it ASAP on the market at an above market price now to see if you can get any FOMO suckers to make an offer. If you get no bites then price more realistically during spring.
Thanks folks, what about renting it on Air BNB for 30 or 60 days? We would leave it partially furnished in this case.
Unless you have a signed mutual agreement to end tenancy – RTB form 8.
Appears vacate clause valid only if you are going to move back yourself. Otherwise they have the right to stay. Recent change:
A vacate clause is a clause that a landlord can include in a fixed term tenancy agreement requiring a tenant to vacate
the rental unit at the end of the fixed term. It can only be included in a fixed term tenancy in the following circumstances:
• the landlord is an individual who, or whose close family member, will occupy the rental unit at the end of the term, or
• the tenancy agreement is a sublease agreement.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/housing-and-tenancy/residential-tenancies/policy-guidelines/gl30.pdf
This is currently legal but make sure you get a signed mutual agreement to end tenancy as of the specific date you want the tenancy to end if you go this route.
Agree it may not be worth it to do this for 1-2 months and fixing up anything at the new house, moving and fixing/staging your current house might be a better use of the overlap time.
Ok so that is $51.40 vs $33.50 for two parents, I see ~50% higher, not double.
Personally I don’t think the after tax rent you get for the 1/2 months will be worth the potential risk of renting it out (e.g. damages, squatters etc.) and then selling. Better to use the 1/2 month to do some minor touchups etc. to get it show ready come selling time. Plus if there is no “spring foliage” you might want it on the market quicker.
Can anyone confirm this for me?
We purchased a home that will close towards end of Feb. We have not yet decided whether to sell our current home this spring or rent it out long-term.
If we sell our home, we will be waiting for the spring foliage to come in … so April / May. Rather than leave the home vacant, we might want to rent it out for 1-2 months,
I am curious as to our options for renting out a SFH in Saanich for approx 1-2 months (March – April). Is it illegal to rent for less than 90 days currently in Saanich or only once the STR changes take effect in May 2024?
Living wage 2023 is based on two parents both earning $25.70 an hour and minimum wage is $16.75 an hour.
Math doesn’t quite pan out……
Real citation needed to support this broad claim. That you link to is a 2012 book written by a tech billionaire that compare broad, international trends in historical access to reasons to modern access to these resources.
It doesn’t compare 2023 to the “previous generation” (I.e circa 1998) in terms of access to resources. I’m highly skeptical that there has been any improvement for Canadians in terms of access to water, food, education, energy, economic opportunities and freedoms since the 1990s. Poverty rates are generally flat since the last generation, despite the small improvement with some covid-era programs that likely has now levelled off. And, access to housing and healthcare has definitely declined significantly.
Investors raised red flags about Greg Martel well before alleged Ponzi collapsed: records
https://www.timescolonist.com/business/investors-raised-red-flags-about-greg-martel-to-bc-regulators-well-before-alleged-ponzi-collapsed-records-show-8124303
Marko, I don’t see how the low income you earned in your first job you after immigrating working the paper route is in any way comparable to the small income you now make on a web side hussle or the fact that you can leverage your housing wealth to return income on STRs.
The actual marker of opportunity for the vast majority of people is real (inflation adjusted) hourly wages relative to living expenses. (Not how easy it is to make a buck renting out your house.) Keep in mind that the “living wage” in this region is now over $25/hour, which is nearly double the now irrelevant minimum wage.
We’ve seen an unprecedented increase in population, in absolute terms, in almost every decade in Canada’s history, excluding the Depression and WWII years. In percentage terms, we reached an all time high of immigration in the early 20th century. Granted a lot of the population growth was rural in those days.
What was different about the last 40 years was the largest decline in interest rates ever, and the transition from one income to two income households as the norm.
In the last 40 years we’ve also seen an unprecedented increase in our population via immigration.
IMHO simply that in the last 40 years we’ve seen an unprecedented increase in housing prices relative to income.
That alone is responsible for the “vast equity”. In fact, older owners are carrying more mortgage debt in proportion to income than ever before.
50 years ago housing was way more affordable. Now the gap between those with equity and those without is much harder to bridge.
The fact that the net worth of those who got into the market earlier in Victoria is higher due to appreciation plus time does not help those with parents who are renters.
Also, in terms of “vast equity” and “a lot of parents” I’m not sure what data you are referring to?
you are correct. Enforcement greatly varies though
How does that compare to 50 years ago?
A lot of parents today have vast equity in comparison to the typical middle class of before.
Malahat Nation ready to build Canada’s largest battery manufacturing plant
https://www.cheknews.ca/malahat-nation-is-ready-to-build-canadas-largest-battery-manufacturing-plant-1186423/
Making money is a game, and Marko is very good at it.
#97).
100%…You couldn’t have said that any better. Risk is hard, sink or swim, shit or get off the pot…Real estate Is a risk. After 10 years In, you look back and say holy shit…Just look at all that forced savings. 20 years In, once your over the bell curve and just hammering down that principle…That’s when you really start to pat yourself on the back. You have to live somewhere.
Millennial home ownership is already at 53%, approaching Canada’s home ownership in Canada at 66.7%.
Since 53% of millennials already own homes, we may be running out of millennials that need help- since they already own. There’s never going to 100% home ownership, and the all-time high in Canada is 68%. Boomers got to about 73% later in life, maybe that’s a good target for millennials. I think they’re on track to get there
Looks like millennials got it covered, next up Gen Z.
When Gen Z (now age 15 to 29) has a look at the high home ownership of millennials, I expect them to complain why millennials had it so easy (lower rates, lower prices, more SFH choice), and that it’s so much harder for Gen Z.
#95). I also think all the tourists you see downtown Victoria go back to their International cruise ships to eat and sleep. Is there another casino In the greater Victoria area other than the West shore?
#94).
The team players of rugby Canada come from all over the planet…Not just Langford. I see them all the time. They have family with lots of money. If you ever want to see a multi cultural event…go to Star Light Stadium.
Correctly if I’m wrong but I thought that in most muncipalities such as Oak Bay and Saanich STVR were still illegal?
#91).
From my reading and viewing of his youtube clips, I think Marko lives light…Probably just places them with care in the Tesla.
Max, i’m not sure if a vacation rental in the heart of Langford is a big selling feature for tourists compaared to Oak Bay of Fairfield.
What do you do with your clothes and other items you don’t want people to touch? Move them elsewhere or lock them up in the unit?
oh right, nevermind.
#87).
When you retire you start to die…Its best to keep the wheels turning IMHO.
Not everyone’s parents are willing or in a position to do this even if they are homeowners. Also, about 30% of people with children rent and 25% of seniors do. A lot of parents have no equity and their children are not getting any help buying a house.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2023001/article/00004-eng.htm
#86). There Is a lot of action down at city center In the spring/summer months. All year round actually since Its an all season turf.
Obviously things are tough re housing, but it is crazy how much opportunity is out there these days. When we moved to Canada we spent the bulk of our weekends delivering fliers. I have a hard time recalling if it was $50 for one or two routes but I just remember it being time consuming and not a lot of $. Now I have a small online side hussle where I make a few hundred per week doing nothing based on an idea I had that I was able to expose via a YouTube video. 10 years ago if went away I left my place vacant, now I make enough STRing to cover my entire trip, etc.
Doesn’t the COV have a four short term rentals max per year for principal residence?
#83).
Thanks for that. I’m a five minute walk from rugby Canada.
@VicRE analyst – in the case of City of Victoria, you mean (a) if it’s in a primary residence and (b) if they have a licence, right?
Outside of City of Victoria some municipalities have bylaws that define STR differently than the provincial definition. So, outside City of Victoria, if a municipality defines STR as a rental of less than 30 days, which one prevails (municipal or provincial definition of STR) given that the provincial definition is anything less than 90 days. I’m not sure if an answer has been given or if I’m missing something obvious.
#80).
A lot of boomers had five siblings. There are a lot of boomers out there right now that are dead broke.
yes, so if you are in fernwood, james bay, cookstreet village or fairfield you can cash in this summer.
I thought STR in your primary residence were made legal at the provincial level but in most municipalities they are still illegal?
#77).
So I could advertise on the Air BnB website without repercussion from the BC government for say 3,5,7 days?
I would argue that few people needing parental help to buy a home indicates an easier entry to market overall compared to a situation where most people need help. It also implies that things have become worse for some (i.e. those who do not have / cannot get parental help). Meaning, overall, there is greater inequality now.
less
#75). Is an STR within your primary residence In BC 90+ days only? Or can It be less?
When an investor lists one of their surplus properties that is adding to the supply of listings for sale. Just as when you put your home up for sale the number of listings increases.
If the investment property is vacant then a tenant is not being displaced as the tenant has already moved on to another rental, bought, or left the city weeks or months before. Similar to the changes in vacation rentals that has increased the number of rental listings and the number of listings for sale.
One could argue that younger folks have it easier, as their parents are willing and able to help them buy a house.
How does that affect supply? A house is a house, whether it is rented or owned.
#69). Back In the day you could do what was called a “take back offer”. These would be building lots that had been sitting for a very long time. I would approach my private lender for the build cost of the house. Once agreed, I would approach the lot owner. Basically cuff me the lot, I’ll build It out, then pay you once sold. This was risky, but common. No one wants to move into a lot…They want to move into a house. If all went as planned…Everyone made their cut. All suppliers and sub trades would be paid. I would be In last position, quite possibly building this house for nothing, without ever seeing a dime for my effort. I was lucky.
I take offense to that!!
LMAO, why respond then?
LMAO, thanks for this invaluable information, Sir Goof.
A bunch of them are here in this forum. I am sure they are all hoping for a hot spring market 🙂
#67).
When I meet my maker, I’ll honestly be able to him I did It all myself. I don’t talk to my parents…haven’t In years. I used private lenders to build spec houses. They would give me performance draws. Was I paying huge Interest? Absolutely. Would the bank touch me? Not a chance. Were there times I thought for sure I was going to lose my shirt? Yes there were. Was I scared shit less? That’s normal. Did I come to the realization that building spec houses was too stress full for me and not my thing? It was my girl friend, now my Wife who made that very clear to me. I was young, I didn’t care, I made It out with skin, and that skin landed me In my own very first Forever house that was finally mine…financed by a real bank. And I am still here In this house typing this on my keyboard right now.
That’s just it, back then a union job was the way to go to secure an upper middle class life. Now it is a guarantee for someone to end up in a townhouse for life. But on the flip side back then high school dropouts with amazing computer skills likely won’t be retired before the age of 25.
Vicreanalyst , going back 40 years bc was more of a meat and potatoes economy , a good gig was a union job . Also hard to believe , people weren’t really horny for real estate , a new Chevrolet in the driveway and a colour tv was a bigger deal
No cuts to overnight, bond market will do what it does.
Exactly, it has never been easier for people with creativity and intelligence to make large amounts of money in a very short time.
Dee it was for a primary residence with a rental suite, not a total investment property. The lender was Coastal Community Credit Union.
That “zero sum game” argument whether someone doing better means someone else doing worse doesn’t make sense to me.
Everyone is better off now than previous generations. Water, food, poverty, disease, energy, healthcare, education, housing, economic opportunity, freedom… all better!
—- Read a book like Abundance which is based on the “good news” idea that “ despite the constant negative information, a closer look at the numbers shows that things are better than we believe” https://www.amazon.ca/Abundance-Future-Better-Than-Think/dp/145161683X/ref=sr_1_2?crid=2HG176T9P8UCU
—- it seems today people want to read and believe only bad news. Like the HHV title “Failure to Launch?” discussing bad news about millennials. Because when I posted “good news”, about 53% of millennials owning homes in Canada (and USA), there’s nothing but a negative reaction – no one wants to hear good news. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/01/15/failure-to-launch/#comment-110409
—- the problem today isn’t “envy” where people don’t have the same things that rich people have. It is “jealousy”, where they do have the same things (better food, shelter, healthcare, freedom, opportunities) but they are jealous because they perceive that some richer people have something even better.
—— I mean, does anyone want to trade places with Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates? I sure don’t. I’m happy with where I live, what I eat, economic opportunities and the peace and freedom we enjoy. And it isn’t any better for the Uber-rich.
Peak condo sales in 2019 were in June which are coming up to there 5 year renewal
Peak condo sales in 2021 were in April which are coming up to there 3 year renewal
Peak condo sales in 2023 were in June which are coming up to there 1 year renewal
My opinion is that the majority of investors have yet to experience the effects of the higher interest rates as most have not had to renew. To lower the interest rates at this time may be counter productive to increasing supply as investors may then chose to not list their properties for sale. So I would go with VicREanalyst insiders’ thoughts that we may not see any significant decrease in the interest rates until Q3 or Q4. It would be too soon to do so as we need to cull the herd of amateur investors.
The problem that may occur is in the rental market. At the moment it seems that most investors are opting to sell their investment property as the property becomes vacant. If they shift to listing tenant occupied properties then that could displace existing tenants who would then have to find accommodation in a tight rental market. That could feed back into higher rental rates which would be inflationary and then all we’ve done is move from the fire to the pot and then back into the fire again.
In my opinion, our market is highly dependent on what choices investors that bought in the last five years will make this year as these investors have experienced little in appreciation while their expenses attributable to the operation of the property have been increasing. In other words are we going to see investors cut bait this spring and take the lead in the market towards lowering prices?
Sometimes hard to compare previous generations and today . It was different world and not a apples to apples comparison , so I wouldn’t put too much stock in these arguments
Sitting here scratching my head that some people still don’t believe that things are harder for younger folks. Doesn’t it make sense from a more macro perspective as well? Because, if economies are more or less closed systems, then it makes sense that as there are more super rich people, there is less to go around in the lower rungs. And, there has been a concentration of wealth upwards, so it makes sense, logically, that there is less for everyone else. I say this knowing that I am extremely privileged, that the boomers were even more privileged than my generation, and worried for the younger folks that don’t come from wealth. We had very little growing up, but my partner’s dad is a doctor and his family helped us with our down payment. What would we have done without them? We’d be screwed.
I do not reject them as “too biased,” but data from RE boards is biased, as you well know.
Another point that you seem unwilling to consider is voiced well by Arb:
Logical fallacies aside, what is your point?
I stand corrected. I was sure you told us you got laid off in the 1980s and moved away from Vancouver. Is that wrong, or did you move back and forth or what?
If you held onto that 1980s house to 2000+… Vancouver houses rose from $100k (1980) to $400k (2000), so you made out quite well as a homeowner in that stretch.
Sure it’s harder to buy a home now than previous generations.
But this is offset … It’s much easier now to find and hold a job now (5% unemployment) than previous generation (8-12% unemployment). And it’s easier to pay the bills with smaller household sizes (less kids) than previous generations. Overall I think things are better now than previous generations. This is why our current millennials have been able to have enough money to get to 53% home ownership despite the high prices. For most millennial homeowners, it is because they have two high paying jobs and as the Toronto study showed, only 17% FTB had family help with the down payment.
That is a complete falsehood. I lived and worked in Vancouver as a homeowner until beyond the turn of the 21st century. I have also posted about my frequent cycling visits to Victoria, rather hard to do if I had moved away from Vancouver.
Just got off the phone with some bay street “insider contacts”, more are in the camp of one rate cut max in q3/q4 2024. LMAO, what are your “insider contacts” saying Barrister?
“Dee there are still rental offset mortgages out there versus rental add-back. I don’t know the common percentage, but back a year or so ago I could still get 80% rental offset. Rules may have changed.”
But was that for an investment property / business as opposed to primary residence? Can you let me know the lender? Ty
You’ve told us many times on HHV that you became unemployed in the ‘80s and soon sold the Vancouver house and moved away from Vancouver for good.
The point being affordability isn’t just the initial purchase, it’s being able to continue to afford and make all the payments throughout the mortgage. And that aspect of affordability became impossible in the 1980’s for the thousands of people (like you) that were unemployed. Compared to today when unemployment is much lower and virtually everyone with a mortgage is able to make the payments.
Patrick, you’re cherry picking. The Toronto stats reference those who are buyers, ignoring the non-buyers or large percentage that cannot get into the market. IOW, it has little to do with affordability for the population as a whole. Also, these stats fail to account for those families who may not have contributed directly to a specific down payment on that specific transaction, but may have contributed to a first, entry market purchase years ago, or paid for all education costs, or other life assistance in adult years (car purchases, etc) which allowed more money to go to all those other saving vehicles and save for a down payment. The point, still, that if you don’t come from some measure of wealth, it’s way frick’in harder to purchase today than it was a generation ago. I.e. not affordable.
Dee there are still rental offset mortgages out there versus rental add-back. I don’t know the common percentage, but back a year or so ago I could still get 80% rental offset. Rules may have changed.
Many if not most housing stats that HHV posts come from the [victoria] real estate board, do you reject those also as being too “biased”?
btw) the home ownership % data for millennials I posted earlier is from statcan 2021 census, and I posted the link.
Thanks for the discussion.
“As much as people hate agents and the real estate industry, I think many hate dealing directly with the other party even more. This is where I am more confident than ever that the industry is going absolutely no where even when all the data is opened up. AI can’t put a deal together between what is most often two irrational emotional parties.”
+100. I always pay full service, though I never truly complain about it (perhaps a grumble about the commissions 1-2x to my partner). A good realtor is worth the fees. I’ve had a couple negative experiences with not so awesome realtors, but here in Victoria we absolutely do have some excellent realtors with integrity.
Re: boomers getting help. I think some of them did but it seems obtuse to suggest that it wasn’t much easier for boomers to get sfh than it is for the gen z/ millennial (even young gen x). Also, i think it should be mentioned that the way some boomers got help was different. For example, I was told that they used to use rental income against the monthly mortgage obligation directly. So, for example, if a mortgage was 1,000 per month and the unit was rented for $500, then they only needed to qualify for a mortgage at $500/month. Can’t do that anymore (that I know of). Also, I know someone who bought their first sfh from their parents, qualified for the mortgage at the listed market price, then the parents “forgave” the downpayment, meaning they didn’t need a downpayment at all. Not sure how that worked. The point is, there were things that could be done to help (boomer) kids that are no longer available. Not just straight up cash.
Is there a less biased organization that you could cite?
Wealth & socieo-economic factors are being ignored in your arguments.
According to the ABC/Ispos poll, “Income also differentiates views. Among people with household incomes less than $50,000 a year, just 18% say the American dream still holds true. It’s 27% in the $50,000- to less-than-$100,000 bracket and 33% among those in $100,000-plus households.”
I don’t think more than 10% of boomers needed help. If I was able to buy a SFH in Vancouver on one income without family help, seems to me pretty much everyone else – given that a single income buying a SFH was and is an outlier – should have been able to buy without family help as well.
Toronto RE board research concludes … “The research shows that in the fall of 2021, “gifts from family / friends” accounted for [only] 11% of down payment sources — a number that’s barely budged, reaching back to 2015. Savings from within an RRSP made up the bulk of funding sources at 35%, followed by equity from an existing property (27%). Finally, savings from within an RRSP and “Other” make up 14% and 13%, respectively.
https://storeys.com/bank-of-mom-and-dad-fund-fewer-home-down-payments-than-think/
From previous thread, catching up 🙂
Yes, 100% agree with you in that the data should be freely available to the public. The couple of points I’ll add is markets where the data is readily available haven’t seen an decrease in lower real estate fees. Secondly, on the whole the mls.ca system is pretty damn amazing if you have experience and knowledge with real estate data/transactions outside of Canada/US/Australia.
I think it’s like saying the financial industry is scamming us hard and there is no simple way to bargain MERs when you simply just download an app onto your phone and save the 2% MERS/year. If you do approximately 50 to 100 hours worth of research on investing I think you can do millions better over a lifetime versus going to Investors Group/mutual fund/etc.
Bargaining is very easy, as I’ve explained many times on HHV, often in detail step by step, in the last 14 years.
Sellers
i. Want to list on mls.ca “privately?” https://markojuras.com/flat-fee/
ii. Full service, just copy and paste an email to 20 realtors that is clear and concise and ask for fees. What do I mean by this? In October I received an email from a gentleman in Edmonton that read along the lines of “I would like to sell my mother’s condo, unit XX at XX address. Probate has been granted, the keys are at rental property management company XXXXX, are you will to take on the listing at 1.5% real estate fees?” I replied sorry I can’t do 1.5% but I’ll do 2.5% with a 1.5% cooperating commission. Reason being is market was slow (I had time), condo was a two minute walk from my place, it was vacant, guy is in Edmonton so I don’t have to meet with him in person, just DocuSign offers, etc. A week later once he received all the replies from all the agents he went with my services. In other circumstances, let’s say it is spring time and I am doing 10+ transactions per month I am not going to negotiate on the 3% as I don’t have the time, but other agents with no work might. My point is everything is negotiable, the fact that people are set on a realtor because he or she has a billboard on the highway and “superior” marketing strategies and they fall for simple tricks like “if I can’t negotiate my own commission how am I suppose to negotiate the best possible price on the sale for you” that’s a whole different story.
Buyers
i. Get a cash back realtor.
Here is the problem, everyone complains non-stop about real estate fees including HHVers and then when it comes time to take action I can see that absolutely no one is taking any action whatsoever. When people on HHV in the last 15+ years have posted that they are selling, for example, and I’ve looked up the properties and they’ve always been listed with agents that do not offer lower commission services. When recommendations have been asked for HHVers are recommending agents that once again don’t offer lower commission services or are claiming their agent gave them 7 crates of wine or some non-sense.
Finally, as someone who offers mere postings (flat fee listings) I’ve had a lot of clients over the years that have SUCCESSFULLY sold using a mere posting and saved 5, 10, 15, 20k and then in subsequent years phoned me and engaged me in full service to sell a subsequent property. 10 years ago I was doing upwards of 40+ mere posting per year, last year it was down to 7 mere posting for the entire year.
As much as people hate agents and the real estate industry, I think many hate dealing directly with the other party even more. This is where I am more confident than ever that the industry is going absolutely no where even when all the data is opened up. AI can’t put a deal together between what is most often two irrational emotional parties.
Maybe it is just me but in my 14 years of selling real estate buyers and sellers have definitively become way more difficult to work with on average, especially after covid. When you match difficult with difficult and no one in the middle to facilitate things become interesting.
Big picture, nothing will change in the US in the end. Commissions will remain around 3% +/- one way or another.
Bobby k , I would think more than 10 % of boomers got help , im guessing their memory is failing them lol . I would also agree that younger folks are getting shafted and they do have a right to be upset . What ones are buying are paying a lot for very little .
The survey found that almost half of millennial and Gen Z respondents said that in order to purchase a home, they’ll need financial assistance from relatives, compared to just 28 per cent of Gen X respondents and 10 per cent of baby boomers.
Haw said that based on her experience working with millennial and Gen Z clients in the Greater Toronto Area, she expected that number to be even higher.
“Anecdotally, working in the GTA with clients, the number is nearly all when it comes to who is getting help from the bank of mom and dad,” she said.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/survey-reveals-generational-divide-in-home-purchase-sentiments-1.1983332.amp.html
So, 60% of the 53% who bought did so without help. That makes it affordable to perhaps 32% according to your figures?
And of course parents have been helping their kids for generations, that’s not the point. The point is if you don’t come from that, it’s getting harder.
You do realize that the average family help is $70,000 and only occurs in 40% of cases. So the other 60% manage fine without any family help, and only 20% have help more than $70k. And of course help is not new, it went on for the boomers too, as another poster mentioned. For example the boomers inherited most of their parent money, so I suppose that means their homes weren’t affordable either by your criteria, and so they were “accessible”.
Patrick, being able to buy a home with family wealth makes it accessible, not affordable. Affordable is when someone without family wealth/help can get into the market. Big difference.
FYI Patriotz, I meant a long slow grind back down to 2% inflation, not 2% mortgages.
#35).
I agree with you 100%. They are both productive around the house…I have the space. One Is still In high school, the other working full time. Its a kick start and their Mother loves the situation. I really don’t have any say In the matter to tell you the truth. My oldest Is framing and has realized It sucks, now he wants to be a commercial airline pilot.
Wrong Vicxxx. But ya I was surprised that a none studio downtown is 1550. Which I assume is atleast 450sqft
Vicanalyst, if you had asked me what the average rent for a one-bedroom was I would have told you it’s 1,850 a month. What you got for your Fernwood character is right around the average. There is a renovated 560 square feet basement suite in Fernwood that has been listed for 19 days on Craigslist and Marketplace asking $1,900 a month plus another $150 per month for utilities and internet. What’s interesting is that you got 9 showings and 3 applications and this other basement suite is still looking for a renter.
What we both don’t know is how large the one-bedroom in the Union Building is or where it is located in the building. Both of which I would expect to be below average.
Interest rates seem very reasonable right now, considering rate of inflation.
One reason folks staying at home longer are the increased educational and credentialling requirements for jobs across many sectors.
Jobs that you used to be able to do self taught or learn on the job now require certificates/tickets. Jobs that used to require high school grad now ask for a bachelors degree. Jobs that used to require bachelors degree now ask for a master’s degree.
Staying at home (if possible) during university/college/trade school is financially advantageous, so that definitely delays move out.
I’ll be quite happy if one or both of our kids stays at home for a bit as long as they are either learning or employed and if they help out around the place.
Nor do I. I also don’t expect rates to stay restrictive forever.
I believe rents have dropped a bit, especially on the 1bed’s and studio suites, lots of single investors have units for rent in the pearl and mod on cook that just completed.
But I have trouble believing a one bedroom downtown is 1550.
Having just rented a 550sq/ft 1 bedroom in a fernwood character house for 1950+ utilities/parking. condo quality and not a junker that you can hear your neighbour’s toilet flush.
Our rent on that unit was 1640/month 4 years ago.
Did 9 showings in one day and had 3 people apply.
I don’t expect to ever see rates that low again. The factors that allowed historically low rates without triggering inflation from 2009 onward are no longer present. As we’ve learned the hard way.
Keep in mind baby boomers also got help too , I know I did
My theory on the young millennials being majority renters is this: It’s an appealing, youthful city, and they moved there from other areas. Many likely couldn’t live with parents if they wanted to in that case. Students would fall right into this category. It’s also counter culture to the idea of being independent in a cool city. I know growing up in Nanaimo that was always the direction I was wanting to take, and I wasn’t alone – it’s how I came to Victoria.
Well yes, millennials are a fortunate group and get all kinds of help. Government programs, property tax deferrals, gifts/loans from parents are all part of it.
Point is, where we stand now, most (53%) millennials have been able to buy homes, so they have been affordable.
Patrick, the answer to how millennials were able to buy their first home is simple, they needed parental help. Approximately 50% of millennials had parents help to buy their first home, this is more than 200% higher then what generation x needed to buy their first home. The study also showed that 79% of generation z had parental help to buy their first home, I guess at this rate 100% of the next generation will need parental help to buy a home.
Wow that is lower than I thought
Sorry to interrupt the pity (“disillusionment”, ”failure to launch” ) party, but here’s some good news to cheer you up… most Canadian millennials already own homes! But wait… I thought homes are unaffordable for millennials, so how can this be true?? Best to take this up with statcan and the 2021 census.
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That chart in the HHV article above for “older millennial home (25-34) ownership rates” is way out of date (2016).
In fact, statcan home ownership rates for 2021 show that MOST millennials own homes now.
Millennials are age 27 to 42.
Here are home ownership rates in that range, from statcan 2021 census (see chart)
Age 25-29, 38% own homes
30-34, 54%
35-39, 62%
40-42, 64%
That averages to about 53% of millennials owning homes But somehow, in the midst of an ongoing long-term unaffordability crisis, most millennials have been able to afford homes after all.
Interestingly, this is the exact same percentage of millennials in the USA (52.5%) that own homes (as of 2022).
https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/millennials-switch-renter-to-owner-majority/
So the idea that most millennials don’t own homes is old news, and no longer true for Canada or the USA.
Here is statcan census data with home ownership rates by age for 2011-2021 censuses.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/dq220921b-eng.htm
Looking at the 162 downtown condos for sale which is 60 percent of all the condos for sale in Victoria City. 35% of one-bedrooms for sale are being sold vacant. While 25% of two-bedrooms are being sold vacant.
The condo of choice for investors are downtown one-bedrooms so it makes sense that more vacant one-bedrooms are currently for sale as investors become net sellers instead of net buyers.
I’m concentrating on the condo market and more specifically on the investor market for condos as my feeling is that this segment is a precursor to the general market. I feel that both the downtown condo and rental markets have softened. If we can not get investors to return to the market, it doesn’t matter how much sabre rattling the province tries on the city – the missing middle initiative won’t be a success. Both the federal and provincial governments may end up spending a huge amount of money trying to stimulate the wrong market segment.
The invisible hand of the marketplace will just reach out and ( )itch slap the province.
Disillusionment: A feeling of disappointment, akin to depression, arising from the realization that something is not what it was expected or believed to be, possibly accompanied by philosophical angst from having one’s beliefs challenged.
“In a dispiriting sign of the times, barely more than a quarter of Americans say the American dream still holds true — about half as many as said so 13 years ago…the change is sharpest among young adults. Their view that the American dream still holds true has dropped by 35 points, from 56% in 2010 to 21% now.
That compares with a 24-point decline among those ages 30 to 64 and 12 points among those 65 and older.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/american-dream-reality-people-poll/story?id=106339566
Subject to the standard caveat that I have no idea (and neither does anyone else), only if there is a deep recession. Otherwise, it looks like it’ll be a slow(ish) grind back down to 2 per cent, with maybe a few cuts later this year. December CPI came in roughly as expected, so nothing really to see there.
Over the past few years, we’ve gone from “don’t worry about inflation, it’ll be gone in a few months” to “everybody fucking panic, stagflation is coming!!!” and everything in between.
If there is a lesson from the pandemic, it’s that everyone is pretty much just winging it. Nobody really knows anything.
Great article Leo.
A micro bachelor suite in the Janion now start at around $1,400 per month for 315 square feet ($4.45 per square foot) At a Gross Rent Multiplier of 18.5 that calculates to a value for the suite at around $310,000.
One-bedroom downtown condo now starts at around $1,550 per month in the Union building. It will be a small one-bedroom.
Two-bedroom downtown condos start at $2,300 per month for a suite in the Wave on Yates or about $2.90 per square foot.
An entire house (no suite) starts at around $3,800 for a 2,000 square feet house in Christmas Hill or about $1.90 per square foot.
There seems to be a lot more one-bedrooms listed for rent than two-bedrooms or entire houses. Intuitively that makes sense as it is more difficult for a single person to pay rent as opposed to two or more people splitting the rent.
Regarding “failure to launch”:
Millennials do everything later in life, they are later to finish university, get married, have kids, and so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they buy homes later too. The term “emerging adults” was coined to describe many younger “millennials” as not being “full-fledged adults” until they’re age 29!
This explains why a higher percentage are at home. The good news is that they do buy, just later. Average age of millennial buying is age 34, later age than previous generations bought.
https://www.unh.edu/pacs/emerging-adulthood
Myself , kicked the kids out when they were 20 , both bought soon after that , so about 8 years ago . Financially they did way better than staying at home , as I think it just delays them just getting on with it
If I was a young person with any sort of skill and ambition would I want to stay in Victoria? Dont have an answer to that and I guess that really depends on a lot of things.
My neighbours kids have either left or are planning to leave Victoria but that is not a scientific sample size. Perhaps we should ask the question of what is there in Victoria that would keep young people here? (I know, the weather, unless like my doctor they move to California).
Because most people who grow up here move away, since the opportunity and the pay is awful and the housing unaffordable. Need to get experience elsewhere before you can get a decent paying job here.
According to Craigslist, there are about 200 rental listings of two-bedroom suites within an eight-kilometer radius of downtown Victoria. The average asking rent is $2,575 per month with the majority of asking rents falling within the range of $2,300 to $3,000 per month. The total inventory for all types of rentals within the same area stands at 550.
As everyone on this blog loves anecdotes, I had an opportunity to speak with the tenant that is facing an eviction as their rental has been sold and the current owner. The tenants were optimistic of finding another rental as they have been looking to find a new place and there are more rentals to chose from with the asking rents a bit lower than a year ago.
The property was sold to a purchaser from Vancouver/lower mainland and the current retired owners are leaving Victoria and moving up island. The seller’s reason for leaving Victoria was that the city has degraded due to homelessness, traffic, and increased property crime.
I don’t know why we have such low home ownership rates and low rates of living at home with parents for this cohort.
When I think about people I know in this age group or slightly under with parents in Victoria I know many who have moved away or rent with their friends or a partner. Of the 25-year-olds I know, no-one owns their own place yet, but a number live in a suite that is owned by a parent or grandparent which would not be counted as living with parents.
We own a house with three units and currently live in one with our two pre-teens. I really appreciate the flexibility of our current home. Eventually, we will take over the lower unit, which is easily connected by just opening a door. That will be nice when the kids are teens and want to have friends over etc. When the kids are older and go to university they can move to the upper or lower unit (or both). If they have a family and want to stay we can move upstairs ourselves and give them the largest units (to connect if necessary). I’m very grateful to have our current home.
I don’t think rates will come down substantially because I think inflation is just barely being held in check atm where they are now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold all year long – or, if there’s any movement, very small movement (in either direction).
Anyone here actually think rates are coming down in a substantial way anytime soon? If so, why do you think that?
……………………………..”Still own my $33 BMO shares from back then. ” (Marko Juras)
Time in the market produces great results. Those shares each pay an annual dividend of $6.04 which is an 18.3% return. Also each share has essentially quadrupled in value! Patience combined with carefully chosen profitable companies has its rewards! This is a fine example…
I think the displayed stats are CMA.
Ya bank of Canada getting into a tricky spot , Lots of good articles that Canada’s immigration policy is fuked up and is in fact hurting more than helping
Houthi’s started in November. Until they fix that boats are going to continue to have to go around Africa.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada-s-annual-inflation-rate-accelerates-to-3-4-per-cent-in-december-complicating-path-for-boc-1.6727565
Inflation back on the climb and housing market staring to lift off, maybe the calling of peak rates was a bit early….
It seems to me that the obvious confounding factor is city size (in land area). Victoria is about 1/10th the size of Vancouver and 1/25th the size of Toronto in land area.
Since younger people who do buy their own property are often priced out of central city cores, they usually either live downtown by renting or move further away and buy outside of the core.
In Vancouver and Toronto, the City statistics include a much broader region outside the city core due to larger city size, and this region may have a higher proportion of young home owners.
Because of Victoria’s small land area, these young homeowners probably bought in “Saanich” or “Esquimalt” or some other nearby region in the capital district, which technically means they didn’t buy in the city of Victoria (even though someone living in a house in Saanich is likely living much closer to downtown Victoria than someone living in “Etobicoke” is to downtown Toronto).
I guess this adds a new philosophical question: if someone moves from Victoria to Esquimalt or Saanich to buy a home, did they really leave the city? People out east would laugh if I told them that people here are driving as little as 10 minutes from Esquimalt or Saanich to Victoria and calling this an “inter-city commute”.
This is nothing, Croatia is somewhere between 70 and 80% living at home with the average Croat moving out at 33.4 years old -> https://total-croatia-news.com/lifestyle/average-croat/
I lived for a number of years with my parents when I started working at VIHA and that really catapulted me forward. I was able to go back to school to get my masters degree plus my real estate licence, travelled a lot, and was sitting on sizeable savings which I was able to out to use when the markets crashed in 2008/2009. Still own my $33 BMO shares from back then. Obviously I was lucky having parents in the same city but some people don’t take advantage of such.
On the question of adult kids that do/don’t live with parents: I’d be curious to add in the dimension of whether there are parents in their city. It could be that in a city like Victoria, most young people don’t have parents in the city with whom to live and so are independent by need not by choice (i.e. they would in fact be living with parents if they could, but their parents are not in town)?