Migration to and from Victoria
In addition to the buyer origin data, we also got the latest update on population estimates from StatsCan. Note that these are based on administrative data and thus a little different than the census population data. Overall the more rapid growth in population that we’ve seen since 2011 continued, with an estimated population of 423,136 up by 2.2% from the year before.
As in previous years we’ve seen the outlying areas grow much faster than the core areas of Greater Victoria due to a lack of available infill housing. That growth has been accelerating in recent years, with the 1 year average growth rates substantially higher than the 5 and 10 year averages in Langford, View Royal, Colwood, and Sooke. However a new council in Langford may be changing that with measures to slow growth while core municipalities look to step up efforts on housing.
Saanich is a notable exception to the trend of accelerated growth as the only local municipality where the 1 year growth is less than the 5 year which was less than the 10 year. No surprise perhaps when it lags far behind even its own modest housing targets (don’t ask me how Oak Bay supposedly grew by 1.2% without any new housing last year though).
We know that the population didn’t grow because of births, in fact 1300 more people died than were born last year, and all growth came from migration, mostly from other areas in the country. The transition from natural growth to migration has a double impact on housing demand, as migrants need housing right away instead of 20 years in the future like babies. That should equalize over the long run, but puts pressure on new supply in the medium term. As in previous years, the biggest source was Vancouver, though that has slowed down a bit from previous years.
Note that Alberta was a large source of newcomers in the 2020/21 data, but that trend has recently reversed, with a large outflow from BC to Alberta in the third quarter of 2022 for the first time in a decade.
We’ll have to wait for next year’s data to see if people also left Victoria for more affordable pastures in the east, but in the 2020/21 data Victoria proved to be quite sticky. Only a few cities gained Victorians on a net basis, and that was just a few dozen people moving up island.
Also the weekly numbers.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||14%||20%||68%|
|Sales YoY Change||-51%||-47%|
|Months of Inventory||1.6|
It’s still very early but there’s no denying that it’s a slow start to the year. Sales down by half while new listings are coming on faster than the year ago allowed inventory to continue growing (as it should until May or June).
Note it’s not possible to separate out brand new listings from re-lists, and we are certainly getting a lot more failed listings this year than the year before. However that’s pretty normal for slower markets, and the percentage of listings going off market at the end of the month isn’t drastically different.
We remain in the period where both new lists and sales typically increase very quickly, so things can change within just a few days. Sales will certainly pick up later in January, but it’s notable that sales activity has not yet shown a strong uptick as we would expect. It’s a bit of a stalemate out there with sellers having just gotten a letter from BC Assessment that their property is worth some 10% more than the year before, a statement entirely out of step with the actual market. In December, the median house sold for just 1% over its assessed value. This month those assessed values have jumped but the actual value of the places is unchanged. If the new assessments had been in place last month, the median house would have sold for 9% under assessment, and sellers will have to get used to this new reality. It remains to be seen how stubborn each side is though and whether higher assessments actually drag prices up a bit as has previously been theorized in the comments section of this blog.
Nationally, it’s another game of headlines versus reality. The latest is CREA’s national home price forecast which predicted that the national average would fall 6% from $703,875 in 2022 to $662,103 in 2023. Headlines read variations of “Canada’s home prices to fall almost 6% this year” or the more clickbaity “The Canadian Real Estate Industry’s Forecast Expectations Are Crashing“.
A reasonable conclusion, but exactly incorrect. CREA is actually predicting prices will rise from current levels. Now I’m not inclined to believe them given continued headwinds from high rates and potentially a deteriorating economy, but it’s interesting to note the disconnect between the coverage and the forecast itself. Not that forecasts generally have any predictive power, but I’ve noticed that annual forecasts are routinely misinterpreted and probably shouldn’t be issued at all.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2023/01/23/changing-rates-and-the-market/
Exclusively on HousehuntVictoria 🙂
“Active Listings for SFH under $1M in the core”
I saw Marko mention his search criteria and Leo came up with a graph titled “Active Listings for SFH under $1M in the core”
Where can that graph be found?
LMAO just saw this too, what coincidence.
Insider contacts just told me Amazon has shrunk the top end of salary bands for all new hires by 75%.
$1.310 posted today as pending.
Yes that sounds right.
Official total for 2022 was 431,645 https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/12/canada-welcomes-historic-number-of-newcomers-in-2022.html
And 500,000 / year projected by the government
As with all things, I’ll believe it when I see it. I was pretty happy to finally have my vote actually count in the last election, instead of in that dastardly first past the post system.
There is a bit of inventory of condos but a lot of undesirable product like, for example, dark ground floor units. A lot of overpriced product. I have clients right now looking for an older 2 bed around 500k and it is really depressing as to what is out there.
A unit was listed last week for 450k that wasn’t super depressing and sure enough it ended up with multiple offers right away.
On my street a few years ago we use to hover around 25 to 35 listings between the three large buildings. Last couple of years including right now has been 3 to 8, currently 6.
Very little if any has occurred on the West Coast as we would be getting bulletins weekly from BC Land Title, BC Real Estate Council, VREB, etc. You can imagine if an owner’s home was sold without their permission they would be all over the news/social media/reddit/etc.
This is the closest I’ve seen in Victoria (only listed, not sold) -> https://www.vicnews.com/news/oak-bay-home-put-up-for-sale-without-owners-knowledge/
Seems to be growing after those first couple of reports. Wonder how much has occurred on the west coast? Can’t just be a GTA problem. The article also discussed if insurers will stop offering title insurance because if the increased risk.
With 500,000k/year immigrants settling in urban areas and requiring a cell I am going to guess telecom dividends are safe for now.
That is a great article Introvert. Liked the quote from Richard Nixon. The Grizzly bear joke is something I’ll probably never forget. Thanks.
That’s interesting, I was under the impression that most of the starlink stuff was based out of Seattle.
I don’t see it. Starlink doesn’t have the bandwidth to replace urban market access. But for rural customers it’s a revolution and Rogers/Telus/Bell don’t have an alternative. Not a ton of revenue there though.
That being said most multiple offer situations right now result in the best offer being under asking price. Did have one that went over ask thought.
Marko, for condos or houses? Seems more inventory for condos, so that would be surprising if that was the case.
If you read the fine print, those jobs are in Mountain View CA (Elon’s not too big on remote work as you might know) and note this further restriction – appears no NAFTA or H1-B visas here:
Maybe they prefer to work during the day.
LOL, tech worker salaries again. Haven’t heard from those folks on HHV since mid 2022 when bragging about how much USD $$ they are bringing in doing consulting. I wonder why…..
As mentioned, the cellphone (mobile) service is a different thing than the internet (satellite dish).
See my previous message for the mobile service, which requires co-operation from Canadian telcos/CRTC that own bandwidth.
But the Starlink satellite dish internet is a threat to rural Canadian internet providers. Not in big cities with fast connections. But lots of rural areas have lousy bandwidth. For example, gulf islands has slow Shaw cable speeds (5mbs, $70/month), and switching to to starLink (150mbs) solves that (for $139/month).
I think the cellphone satellite is a positive for Rogers/Telus/Bell.
The SpaceX direct-to-cell for cellphones is a different system than the satellite dish. And it uses the telco’s own licensed bandwidth. For example, when they launched this with t-mobile, they are using t-mobile 1900-1915 MHz range.
So for this to work in Canada, SpaceX needs to partner with a telco (Rogers/Telus) that owns bandwidth in Canada.
So Rogers/Telus will get to sell this to us, and just share profits with SpaceX. SpaceX has already invited all telcos in the world to apply, and says 80 have signed up already, and I’m sure Canadian telcos are near the front of that list.
For example, when this is implemented over next few years, as a Rogers consumer, your regular iPhone will show a cellphone connection saying “Rogers” wherever you go in Canada including wilderness (and Gordon Head!) . Because these satellites will work like Rogers cell towers.
No way can a satellite service be price competitive with terrestrial infrastructure except in remote areas. The numbers just do not work. Having said that, I think there is some price downside to the established carriers – compare to the US and elsewhere.
What kind of risk is Starlink to Rogers/Telus/Bell? I am a little overweight in Telus 🙂
I can’t see the Canadian government allowing Starlink to dominate the market?
My Starlink has improved a lot since the early betas. Still needs to be able to see the sky, but much less of the sky. And works 24/7 without dropouts. 150mbs download, and 40 ms latency.
I expect the direct-to-cellular T-Mobile cellphone version would need to be used outside, with maybe 50% sky visible. That’s better than the cell reception I get in parts of Gordon Head 🙂
btw) SpaceX/Starlink is looking to hire engineers for this direct-to-cellular project. $200k CAD per year to start. https://boards.greenhouse.io/spacex/jobs/6550184002?gh_jid=6550184002
Will end the month at around 280-290 which isn’t too bad. I was expecting worse given interest rates and the way the first 10 days of the month started.
Wrote four offers over the weekend, three went in multiples despite the slow market. Lack of half decent inventory still a problem.
That being said most multiple offer situations right now result in the best offer being under asking price. Did have one that went over ask thought.
Suprising given real estate is a lot cheaper in Halifax but I’ve had a number of navy tenants (including one currently) over the years….I would imagine their salary would be similar in Victoria and Halifax +/- cost of living allowances; therefore, their ability to pay rent would be similiar.
Month to date numbers. I don’t seem to have the weekly numbers for the same week last year, so change in activity is based on greater victoria residential activity instead, and inventory compared to end of Jan 2022.
Sales: 155 (down 48%)
New lists: 575 (up 14%)
Inventory: 1707 (up 129%)
New post tonight.
What surprises me is that rent between Victoria and Halifax seems about the same.
So long as there are no trees.
The art of spending money – and what it reveals about who you really are
Toronto, but noteworthy.
Saw this on reddit today:
Another recent sold around the area is 1955 Taylor at 1.275 with legal finished basement. The 1887’s basement needs significant works to meet the Building Code.
Okay, 1887 hasn’t posted as sold or pending on the system yet. The price seems to usually post after the deposit is handed over or the conditions are lifted. Originally, $1.495 and 80 days on market.
Thx Umm…1887 must have been quite recent then. Thought it was a fairly hefty ask in this market at $1.375M. Updates look kind of par for the course to me.
912 Allenby – sold $1,029000….. Originally 1.175 and cancelled then relisted at 1.1
I don’t have the other one…
Developer’s are not financing. Not the same thing and they have the opposite effect on market price.
In both cases the seller is offering below market financing. Call it what you want.
Otherwise known as concessions, Patriotz. Not an assumable mortgage.
During down markets developers often resort to mortgage buydowns to give the impression that they are not dropping the price. The true market price – under open market financing – has in fact fallen.
Anyone know what the 2 recent sales on Allenby were at?
That would be under the assumption that the seller would be willing to accept the same price for the home. Otherwise the cost of the property is a little bit higher to the buyer to obtain this favorable financing.
There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Assumable mortgages (at the low low rate of 11%) were all over the real estate ads in early 80s when rates were 15-20%. Haven’t really seen it here, I think because of mortgage portability most would want to take the mortgage themselves I assume
Yes, mayne has cell and wired internet.
Fwiw, within a few years everywhere including wilderness will have cell phone and internet reception. Using starlink gen2 satellites and partnership with cell carriers like t-mobile.
“ SpaceX plans on using its second-generation Starlink satellites to bring connectivity to T-Mobile smartphones on the ground, according to an application filed with the FCC.
The company is requesting FCC permission to equip 2,016 second-generation Starlink satellites with a “direct-to-cellular system” capable of beaming data to off-the-shelf T-Mobile phones.
“The service will be able to provide voice, messaging, and basic web browsing at theoretical peak speeds of up to either 3.0Mbps or 7.2Mbps peak upload … and up to either 4.4Mbps or 18.3Mbps on the downlink,” SpaceX wrote(Opens in a new window) in the application, which was submitted on Tuesday.”
While you’re renovating your dream house in the middle of the sea, you can change your oil and fix your own brakes. How would you heat the place? Wood stove? Electric? Going to medical appointments, especially specialists would be a pain, unless there’s a local shaman.
I was reading how, in the states, a lot more people with properties for sale are offering a mortgage discount for the first few years. Not sure how that works, but apparently the scheme is on the increase. I would guess they simply carry the mortgage in some way and the people buying the house figure that by the time the three years is up their income will have gone up.
If someone knows how that works perhaps they could clarify? And is starting to appear here in Canada yet?
Yes. But for people who like nature, most of the Gulf Islands are beautiful and peaceful with or without cell services. You can go visit and see for yourself.
With the sale on Mayne Island, you are relying on one metric only, that being the Sales to Assessment Ratio (SAR). There have been 11 non waterfront house sales, excluding this property, over the last year on Mayne Island. The SAR for these properties ranged from a low 0.77 to a high of 2.45 with the median SAR at 1.49. That’s a wide range over a small sample size. Because of this, I wouldn’t rely on the SAR to provide a meaningful indication of value.
The last time a similar house sold along that same street having a similar view was 20 years ago at $232,000. The difficulty for an assessor would have had with this property it is neither a water front property or a non view property. It’s between the two being home with an unobstructed water view. That really limits the amount of sales that an assessor could rely on to provide a judgement sample. The assessor could have just been wrong in their property valuations for the island.
And Patrick is right, the cost of building on Mayne Island is substantially higher than Victoria. The ferry service for the outer islands is less convenient than the inner islands of Salt Spring and Pender. You would be left with the choice of using a builder that lives on the island or having to provide accommodation and additional expenses to have an off island builder and their crew of workers stay on the island or pay for the daily ferry rides and travelling times back and forth for six to nine months. Consequently, you don’t find very many new builds in the last five years on Mayne Island. And when they do sell they sell below current replacement cost.
Mayne Island would be appealing to a very specific and small target market of prospective purchasers. The marketing time to find a buyer is generally much longer and if the property is under duress to sell quickly, then the discount from market is often substantial to effect a sale.
If you own a boat, it’s a pleasant trip from the lower mainland to the island. I used to go from South Surrey to Saturna island and back just for a day trip. So I can see how it would initially appeal to a Vancouverite that enjoys boating. Long term – not so much.
Does Mayne Island even have cell phone reception? Who would come out to inspect the electrical?
I think we will be seeing more of these this year imo
It is not a bad deal. But the interesting part is that the seller was willing to accept the low ball offer after just 10 days on the market (note BC assessment sell record is even short, for just 8 days), with listing price already 15% below assessment. So there could be more to that story (e.g. estate sale, “insider trading” JJ, etc), especially the buyer is a Vancouver based realtor representing himself.
Maybe his words used in this buy could be of some help to the regular buyers? 😉
“I don’t want to insult the seller, but this is a declining market. I didn’t want to pay last year’s price, especially with the cost for renovations.”
Mayne has a tiny population (1,100 permanent), and lousy ferry service (infrequent and > 1 hour travel time from Vancouver or Victoria)
Building a house there would be very difficult and expensive, since everything arrives by ferry. You might wait weeks to get a drywall crew to show up. I wouldn’t expect anyone to tear that house down, unless they can build a new one themselves.
It would be great to see some affordable homes like this on the gulf islands. The NIMBY’s have stopped most new housing, and young people have nowhere to live. So there’s no workers , despite many available jobs. Local government there is the “islands trust”, which has a permanent mandate to ’Preserve and Protect’ – a NIMBY paradise.
It is not a tear down.
I’d say it was a good deal and sign of a changing market that often shows up first (and most) in high end and vacation area properties.
One mechanism is indirect, through a slowdown on the economy. which takes awhile, and then housing is impacted (layoffs leading to immediate sales).
We haven’t seen that (recession), though plenty of economists (e.g. David Rosenberg) and talking heads are sure it’s coming.
But if the economy keeps humming along (as I expect), I think home prices will stabilize and then rise with inflation, despite higher rates.
Take a look at the Mayne Island assessment. The house has a negative tear down value, and was assessed at $269,000. The true value was $300,000 for the land, the agent that bought it overpaid 25%. Where the f is Mayne Island? Oddball properties like this should not be brought into the discussion of property value. The seller must be LHAO.
Mayne Island property sells for 33% below assessment:
I was able to help a close family member find a family doctor in Victoria using this website:
You pay $3.99 a month to be put on a South Island notification list, and when a GP starts accepting new patients you will be notified.
It took 2.5 months. Your mileage may vary.
I keep hearing this but don’t understand the mechanism. Seems like impact on real estate should be nearly immediate, other than the continual drag from the some 2% of mortgages that renew every month at now substantially higher rates.
Yes, that sounds right. I’m expecting inflation to continue (albeit at a lower rate like 4-5%). And a few more, timid 25 hikes during 2023.
Seems hard to believe they could slay inflation without either 1, raising rates above the inflation rate or 2. causing a recession
It never really stops, almost had one in the fall, but one person was looking for a little less of a discount.
The talking heads seem to keep saying that it takes a calendar year from the time of an interest increase see the actual impact from the increase. If that’s true, spring into summer should see some more turmoil from the increases that occured a year ago.
The broker didn’t do much, I got a quote from a broker and then asked my bank to beat it. I give them credit, they actually beat the broker quote by quite a bit.
I just think the annual statement highlights a near quadrupling of rates in a single calendar year. It has definitely been painful, which is why I’m surprised everything is holding up so well.
You’ll need to find someone who cares to continue this discussion with you. From my end, it’s over.
Right, but the discussion from sidekick is about an existing mortgage. He is not looking to qualify, he is paying one off. I have no idea if he is in year 2 or year 25.
You’re moving the goalpost.
I don’t believe the 6-8% estimate was a guarantee that every single mortgage would be in that range.
I mean, its January..
You should shop around…
Fwiw, variable rates are 5.55%
I just checked on ratespy.com, and the rate from CIBC for $300,000, 5 year variable is….
Barrister knocked it out of the park.
Over the lifetime of the mortgage. However inflation “front-loads” interest costs in real terms. That is, the interest cost at the start of the mortgage goes up a lot more than your salary does. And those are the numbers that mortgage qualification is based on.
Market picking up the last couple of days in terms of sales. Inventory continues to be an issue. I’ve been following the following criteria the last 6 months
SFH – Freehold – Core Areas – Under $1,000,000
We hit as high as 56 active listings a few months ago, down to 26 now with quite a few of those with accepted offers.
It sounds like the experience may have been painless, if you needed to find out about the rise in rates from an annual statement.
Regardless, it’s not all doom-n-gloom.
—- In a typical year with 6% inflation, you would have also seen your house value rise by 6%. Not this year, but averaged out over time..
—- And you would have seen your wages rise – hopefully by the average 5-6% seen in 2022.
Those offset the increase in mortgage interest rates. And you should be happy that your 5.55% variable interest rate is below the rate of 2022 inflation. – that’s called a “negative interest rate”.
Sidekick, any way you look at it that is a rather horrible increase.
3,274,193 and a few good Syrian restaurants.
“Coun. Stephen Hammond said council is sending developers a message that staff reports and recommendations can be ignored
Could you explain your Vision for how many people the region needs for optimal quality of life?
The reason I ask is that it’s all fine and good to want more and more housing to help affordability a little bit, but what is the vision for the community? Where is this going? What population, infrastructure, and kind of economy do we want in 2050? I mean, is there a vision or just, you know, grow and make money
Can you recommend a creative broker who gives good rates?
5 year fixed mortgage rates trended up during 2018. If the bond yield sticks below 3% and we get some competition among the big 5 it isn’t a far fetched scenario that owners will be refinancing from 3ish to 4-4.5ish this year. If you factor in principal repayment and refinancing wouldn’t a lot of people people able to keep payments as is?
Diplomacy in action.
I received my yearly mtg statement and do think the rate of increases was far closer to Barristers’ information that I’d have ever expected. I’m still dumbfounded that they were able to raise this much, this fast. It leads me to believe there is a large portion of the public that has not been affected by this (fixed rate). Starting to see price increases in other areas (like private school) now.
I like the new council so far. Getting rid of Isitt and Andrew is a breath of fresh air. Sounds like there’s the critical mass needed to get things moving a bit more.
“Coun. Stephen Hammond said council is sending developers a message that staff reports and recommendations can be ignored.”
You’re a good man Barrister. And so we have officially ‘buried the hatchet’.
Or I could bring over my Green Label. And take a taxi home.
Whatever, what i have is MaCallan 12, which is reasonably smooth. But I am sure that I could find some Johnny Walker Black the next time I am down at the plaza.
Johnny Walker Black and I’ll pick up Patrick and drive him to your place.
Actually, and I dont have any idea about this, how much of a discount can mortgage brokers get for their clients? I am assuming there is some benefit to using a mortgage broker as opposed to dealing directly with the bank.
Patrick, instead of beating up on me, why dont you come over to the house one day for a drink of scotch. We can sit in the library and I will explain why I dont make predictions.
Sounds like umm..really is back in the hunt. Good Luck!
As in the lender bundles it up with a bunch of other low LTV mortgages and bulk insures it through CMHC so the debt can be sold off as MBS. Lenders like Equitable Bank do it. Not sure if big banks do.
While we’re on the topic of possibly made up stories, did you use the drunken loudmouth mortgage broker from that elites only whiskey tasting you attended last year?
As in the mortgage was originally not insured, then on re-finance it becomes an insured mortgage?
Do Big 5 banks usually back end insure mortgages? Anyone know?
It is from a big 5 bank, so the standard catches apply. I always sit on a pre-approved to be ready for an offer, but if have one accepted I will shop rates again, just to see if I can beat what I have locked in.
Yes, and as you’ve told us, it wasn’t a prediction of yours, because you “don’t make predictions.” Your story goes that you’re merely a “vessel”, where Bay Street insiders regularity contact you for group discussions about fun things like future interest rates. And this gets channeled straight through you to us. Aren’t we lucky!
Unless of course you’re just making that whole story up. Which is more likely since you admitted you made up another one of your wild tales -the “perfect rib-eye steak”.
Anyway, next time you have another séance to meet the ole’ Bay Street gang, tell them Patrick says ‘hi’.
And there is no catch like hidden fees etc.?
Yes, the rate actually dropped during the process from the quote 5 days earlier to when it was finalized.
25 year amortization?
That’s the insured product which is quite a bit different than none insured. I believe HSBC had those at 0.99% for 5 year fixed in 2020.
Needs a sale to make that luxury car payment. Needs it quick too as there’s obviously no time for complete sentences.
Marketing email from a realtor “Will buyers still qualify if another rate hike? Write up offer now”
Just locked in a 5 year fixed pre-approved in the mid 4% range the other day that carries into May. The broker also pitched the 1, 2 and 3 year fixed rates at me mentioning not many people are taking the 5 year fixed option right now, even though the rate is much lower then the shorter fixed term rates and variables. Most of his clients were opting 1 or 2 year terms at a much higher rate than the 5 year fixed. He would only guess that there are many are expecting rates would drop and didn’t want to risk locking in at a lower rate now that may be higher in the long term.
I just checked and both Royal and TD are floating around 5,5.Certainly a bit off but then again the beginning of this year is not over.
Regardless, it was just a prediction which if we get a couple more rate hikes might be a lot closer. What is more interesting is someone’s absolute insistance on screaming that it was wrong. It is simply the rather strange and unmeasured nature of what borders on a tantrum.
As far as predictions go, it wasn’t far off. Certainly better than the Bank of Canada’s own press releases.
Hurray for common sense. Two councilors outing themselves as anti missing middle in the article too.
One way to reduce impersonation fraud would be to have electronic finger prints of buyers and sellers added to the documents at the land registry. This would also have the effect of those involved in other criminal activities such as money laundering and the use of straw buyers to look at other provinces and countries were it is easier to commit their crimes.
Following up on Marko’s post the other day about CoV staff trying to shoot down a multi-plex project, council went ahead and ignored the staff recommendation:
around 5% vs “6 to 8%”
When you hedge a prediction with a range that is > 25% and then the outcome is off by another 15% that is not close to spot on
That’s what i meant, is it too early to make the low 4’s call. Risk premiums have also increased so you will likely see a bigger spread between the 5 year and mortgage rates.
Huh? Obviously depends on whether low bond yields stick around or not. We briefly touched this level in July too.
You been fooled by this couple times now, Is it going to stick this time?
At a bond yield of 2.8% we should be about 4.3%. Probably coming soon. Average spread for both variable and fixed is 1.5%
That’s for insured, none insured was mid 5’s a month ago when a colleague renewed his which is pretty close to 6%. And most people are currently managing so ya I would say his insider contacts were pretty close to being spot on.
I don’t understand whatsoever. It’s not like the rate is high but the discount is amazing so if rates fall you have an awesome discount. It’s high rates and crap discount.
If you believe rates will fall why not do a 1 year fixed? It’s not like the discount on variable is going to be worse in a year.
5 year mortgage rate is 4.79%, not the “six to eight” we were told we’d be seeing now.
Here’s what Barrister told us “ “For the moment, the talk on Bay Street is to expect six to eight by the beginning of next year. That is what I am hearing from TO.” https://househuntvictoria.ca/2022/05/10/months-of-inventory-or-sales-to-list-which-is-better/#comment-88306
As I recall, this “6-8%” was the only prediction from Barrister’s Bay Streeters, and it’s now an official swing-and-a-miss.
Personally I wouldn’t buy insurance specifically for something that happens in BC one in 5 million but each to his own. What are the odds of dying in a car crash? Might as well not drive.
16% in november which is latest stats.
The condo has been vacant for 3 years from the story. On the house one (see 2nd link), it was the fake tenants. “The family later learned the tenants chosen had used fake identity documents and bogus references on their lease application, and Walsh said police eventually referred to them as “ghosts” after trying to locate them. “
All the people who thinks that BOC will cut rates to rock bottom again later this year. I am sure you can find some posters here preaching that over the past couple of months.
The refinancing volume must be epic
I think it will drop to well below 10%. Was already down to 29% in October.
Watch the stats come out at 20% went variable. Something doesn’t add up.
Because the consensus view of HHVers (for 2023) is also 4.5%? 😉
With fixed rates well below variable rates, I’m not sure if it matters at all. Who in their right mind is going to choose a variable rate?
Last stats I saw from BC Land Title were like 2 (two) in 10 million in BC. Odds of winning the lottery are probably higher than this type of fraud.
Story doesn’t really cover some important details which is a little odd. You would think they would explain how the fraudster gained access to the condo? Something seems a little off…
What’s the point of posting this? Last year Barrister’s bay street insider contacts had a much more accurate call than most of the economists.
From CBC today: “How thieves stole a Toronto condo and sold it for $970K”, also other recent one on a house:
Anyone know about similar incidents in Victoria or BC? It seems related more to mortgage-free properties.
We have title insurance on our condo, but not on our house and think a HLOC on the house is enough deterrent/protection.
“ The Bank of Canada will hike its key interest rate by a modest quarter point to 4.50% on Jan. 25 and then hit pause on an aggressive tightening campaign, according to a Reuters poll of economists, with risks skewed toward a higher peak.”
New Zealand has instituted some of the best reforms in the world to limit the ability of municipalities to obstruct housing, but it’s going to take years for the effect of those to play out. There’s some really promising results from their changes starting now. In the short term the effect of interest rates has dominated though
Lots of similarities to BC, but they went one step further
Both BC and New Zealand have some 5 million people and BC grew at ~1.5%/year last 10 years while NZ grew at 1.6%/year.
Both restricted foreign & speculative buyers.
Only NZ reformed zoning to end bans on multifamily housing
2022 home completions:
Unless we follow suit with fixing zoning I suspect that gap will only grow.
Long on bullshit just to come to this conclusion at the end:
Some interesting facets and parallels to this
Actually the TR6 was a fairly reliable car as British cars went. This was at least partially due to the fact that both the clutch and the engine were based on tractor parts. I have replaced all the wiring in the car years ago which is less of a job than one might imagine.
Langford’s fast-track tree protection bylaw draws praise and heat
Short answer is no. It’s not a universal system like our Medicare, it’s actually a pooled risk private insurance scheme. About 35 million are enrolled. Of course there are a lot more Americans who have some kind of health insurance, through employers, individual subscription, US Medicare (seniors only), Medicaid (low income, varies by state). But at least 30 million don’t have anything.
The city of Oshawa has proposed to ban tobogganing in the city except in 2 parks. How much control do they want over our lives? How many positions will that create? “The Department of Toboggan Control” is hiring now. In the summer they can do toboggan inspections so you can get a license for one. There is no end to government bureaucracy.
Don’t all Americans have Obamacare?
Tuesday I was on Auto Hunt Victoria, and today I am on Health Hunt Victoria. The housing market is truly slow or nearly dead … haha
But all are good discussions and I learn something new each day here. 🙂
I know they say it is a different bacteria that causes the infections…but still, they diagnosed me with tonsillitis and strep routinely year after year it seemed….but never really have had even had as much as a sore throat since the extraction of my tonsils.
Marko…Have you had your tonsils removed? I used to get strep regularly. I had my tonsils removed when I was in my early 30’s and I have never had strep since. Just sayin………..when you go to Croatia again…….
I am down with this, I get strep every 3 years like clock-work.
My brilliant idea is let GPs that bill MSP over a X amount (they see certain minimum level of patients) work 1 day a week at whatever the open market will support. I would gladly pay $250-300 CND for an appointment to skip the current alternative options. If the GP can see 30 people that day and open market is $300/appointment and they make $9k, good for them. They could rotate the days so on any particular day there is a GP(s) available at market rates.
Thanks for your help with that Marko.
Whether a special assessment is deductible against current income depends on whether it is a repair or improvement that will last over years. A large special assessment for a building exterior is probably going to be treated as a capital improvement which has to be claimed through CCA as depreciable property. It may or may not make sense for you to claim CCA as there is recapture at the end of the day.
A hedge on the previous post: primary health without a family doctor is worse here, in greater Victoria, where urgent care does not for practical purposes exist, than primary care in parts of the States we know wells Simply because there is affordable accessible urgent care there but not here.
Example: We were on Long Island for work back in May. Smallest child got a double ear infection on the flight there and we went to an urgent care clinic on arrival. 45 minutes and 200 USD later we knew what we were dealing with had a prescription etc. The boys have a family doctor here, so if that had happened here the smallest would have gotten care. But since said family doctor is at 170% capacity probably not for multiple days.
Infrequent, yes, that’s my understanding. It may also be possible/advantageous to spread the loss over more than one year, depending on how things unfold, i.e. if you end up with a negative income – not sure. Best to pay for an hour of an accountant’s time to get the ins and outs.
Agreed! But three other minor points:
Primary care without a family doctor is now worse in Canada, which is the case for ~ 20% of the population, not far from the 25% of uninsured Americans. I mean that in an almost definitional sense. When I get sick I have to simply tough it out now, since a telehealth appointment two weeks after I get sick is completely useless. Not exactly what we expected in a first world country! Whereas, in the States, there are Urgent Care clinics you can go to, get seen immediately (often by a PA) and pay ~ 200 USD out of pocket for the trouble without any insurance whatsoever.
Even decent health insurance in the States from your work often comes with fantastic care. The real problem is that it’s a have vs. have not system. Not too unlike housing here..
The bloat of admin is a parasitic scourge in both systems. The plot of administrators and providers as a function of time is horrifying.
Vancouver company RockDoc has a home self test strep for $60. Comes with a free same day tele-med appointment (covered by BC Health) that will get you the penicillin. A family member in Vancouver did it, and it worked like advertised. Bought the kit at a Vancouver pharmacy, had a + strep test within 20 minutes , same day tele-med appointment with a bc doc, and started on penicillin. It also tests for influenza and Covid.
This is started in the following cities, Metro Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Eastern Ontario and Halifax but planned for rollout across BC and Canada.
If you are in Victoria and want this, maybe your friend in Vancouver can pick one up. Or you can buy one next time you’re in Vancouver and keep it handy. Apparently the pharmacy will overnight a test to you, though haven’t tried that.
Unfortunately this is the type of private health care likely to be in the crosshairs of Adrian Dix and the NDP. And from past discussions I expect many HHVers would be happy to see the government shut them down.
If you can get it for a huge discount it can make a lot of sense imo. The huge discounts are typical found in the buildings where lenders will no longer provide financing. The building being under a tarp for 12 to 16 months shouldn’t impact the ability to find a tenant and the rental rate too much. Once it makes it through the remediation period if in a quality location it should pop back up as a result of a brand new facade + buyers can finance it again.
The new strata bylaw amendments have really opened up this avenue as before if the building has a no rental policy it wouldn’t make sense as an investment. You would have to let it sit vacant during the remediation and then bank purely on appreciation.
Now you can rent it and if on the other side of the remediation there is no appreciation you just keep renting it.
There is a building I am currently eyeing up with a 100k+ assessment coming up but no listings in it currently. The last sale was a great deal.
Oh yeah that makes sense Arbutus. Because rental income is just another personal income stream, are you saying that if (to use fake numbers) the special assessment was 100k and I had 30k rental income then there would me 70k deductible expenses remaining which could be applied against my regular employment income?
Edit to add: yes, sounds like I should talk to an accountant. Thanks!
In general CRA is concerned whether an expenditure is for repairs or capital improvements. I think this would apply to a condo assessment the same as it would to an individual property. Repairs are expenses which can be deducted from revenue. Capital improvements are added to the ACB. They are not an expense.
A current loss (i.e. revenue minus all expenses) can be deducted from your other income for the same year. I do not think it can be carried forward. Many investors run a current loss without any special assessments.
I say this as a former investor, albeit not a condo investor and not a tax expert. Maybe you might want to talk to the latter.
We had a special assessment on an investment condo that was tax deductible the same year…not sure about carrying forward to future years if it is more than revenue, but my guess is the answer may be tied to overall income the same year, assuming you have other income…question for an accountant, for sure. Would be curious to know as well.
The more I think about my special assessment question, I feel like it may get into the realm of Capital Cost Allowances, which I don’t really understand and have not delved into. FWIW this is a hypothetical scenario, in that I was looking at a potential rental investment which has a large SA on the horizon. The answer to this question would have a large bearing on whether or not the rental makes $ sense. Cheers
Regarding a tiered based medical system based on income tax paid. I would argue this would be far from fair for a lot of people and is a very antiquated way of measuring wealth today. There are a lot of high net worth individuals who pay very little income tax. It may have worked as a broad strokes approach a generation ago but my guess is that today there are more people benefiting from generational wealth than ever before. Under such an approach, many families and individuals who make more money but have no help from family would pay more than the wealthier individual who makes less but has more discretionary income. Add to this the fact that the higher earner likely already contributed more in taxes paid.
Anyway, off topic, and I don’t have a solution, just wanted to add those 2 cents.
Hmmmm…maybe I am just going to the wrong place. Is everyones dentist using the 3d scanning in Vic? Edit: n/m, plan on getting work done in Croatia. Just cleaning here.
Ufff that’s a good question! I am curious as well. I own quite a few rental condos but I’ve never dealt with a special assessment.
Digital X-Rays and 3d scanning have been standard technology used by dentists worldwide for years. Much safer and better.
Lots of Victoria dentists use them e.g. https://www.vivadentalvictoria.com/about-us/our-technology#Digital3DScanner
As someone who has lived both in US and Canada, I can make the following observations:
Primary care was much better in Canada than US until before the pandemic. Now they are about the same. The problem with primary care in US is that every visit can cost you $25 – $50 due to deductibles and copayments. For most minor problems, people don’t go to the doctor in the US, even for kids. In Canada, we took our kids to the doctor almost every month. There are copayments for lab tests, X-rays, etc.
Specialist care in the US is many levels better than in Canada – there is no comparison. No wait times for appointments or surgeries, etc. Some specialists in the US are in high demand due to their reputation, but you can always get some specialist appointment immediately.
Emergency departments are bad in both counties. This is the main option for Americans without insurance, and when they get the bill, they don’t pay. This is the reason any visit to the emergency for people with insurance costs $1000s of dollars.
My problems with the US medical system are the following:
Question I’m having a hard time finding an answer to via google:
If you own an investment/rental condo and there’s a special assessment, is the full amount of the special assessment tax deductible? And if the special assessment is more than the annual revenue of the unit, can it be carried forward into future years until it’s all eaten up? Talking about a ~$100k bill for reference.
The two people in that cartoon picture look like actors, and they are too young for the part 😉
Nahh, just a subtle shot at some of the posters here.
To be fair wrt VIHA colonoscopy:
One family member had positive fits result reported by lifelabs on April 2nd last year (via routine tests), and was contacted by VIHA colon screen office two days after (even before the family doctor), and a colonoscopy was arranged by VIHA and done on April 18th. So not that long wait.
Note fits testing is easy and can be ordered by a doctor, say once a year after certain age, or if one has issue.
Dental is private here. So, sounds like you’re just going to the wrong dentist.
Let me guess, you’re referring to your insider contacts again.
There are some really sheltered people whom think Canada is the greatest place on earth and all other countries in the world are so shitty that everyone wants to do whatever they can to immigrate here.
I figured you did. You should probably set up a health spending account if you have not already through your corp.
I don’t expect things to be magically fixed as we age, so we have HSAs and our plan includes not waiting for necessary medical care even if we have to buy it elsewhere. Plus not going into long term care or assisted living.
Not everyone can afford to do this, but many people can afford alternatives if they set them up in advance and are prepared, for example, to draw on home equity.
Sorry, my bad. I didn’t know colonoscopies were available privately in Canada. Replace with something else that has a long waitlist you can get done in other countries privately.
I do get all my non-urgent health care done privately in Croatia. 1/5 the price of the US and state of the art clinics and great doctors. It is like $80 to go see a dermatologist privately with 48 hours.
I had a root canal/crown done in December for $400 CND in Croatia. Not sure what it would be here but I am guessing over 1k? Had my teeth cleaned in Victoria last week and my Victoria dentist was really impressed with the work. I wasn’t surprised, in Croatia they are using some state of the art x-ray machine that 360 degree spins around your head. Here dentist still shoving uncomfortable films into my mouth 🙂 Nice guy thought.
Should be tiered based on income taxes paid (adjusted for age etc.) IMO, only way to make it fair.
Why not just pay to do it in Canada then – or Seattle. https://www.cambiesurgery.com/procedures/screening-colonoscopy/
No doubt the system needs an overhaul but have you ever spoken with someone from the US who has lost their home and declared bankruptcy due to medical bills?
Medical bills are the number one cause of bankruptcy in the US. And some of these people have coverage of some kind, but they can’t afford to pay the 10k deductible.
Now ask yourself if you have ever run into a Canadian who declared bankruptcy due to medical bills? You know lots of Canadians who can’t get a family doctor, but do you know any who avoid medical care because they are afraid of the cost?
And think about whether you’d rather be stuck in ER and get emergency and other care, or have to pay 10k a year or more out of pocket. Possibly hundreds of thousands if you lose coverage and something happens.
and here I’ll die waiting 10 years for a colonoscopy that I could have had done privately for $2,500 USD or the amount of money people spend on their pet yearly.
My friend suffered a stroke in the U. S. last fall, had health insurance and received immediate, top notch care. Only problem, he is no longer covered for any future strokes outside of Canada. Even private insurance has it’s downfalls. You can get great health care in Canada if you have the right friends. Sad to say. Best to lead a healthy lifestyle and chances are you won’t need any medical care until you’re on the autopsy table.
Canadian health care will bankrupt everyone.
Assuming you don’t have medical coverage from your employer……
One of the problems with the repeat sales method is that the data does not account for renovations done to a property from the date of the original purchase (s). The repeat sales method is raw data taken from the land titles offices which is often dated. In those cities where home owners are not significantly updating their homes it will work better than in cities where the homes are being updated. The repeat sales method is still taught in courses but is not considered reliable unless each sale is investigated as to changes that may have been made to each property. Teranet does not have that capability.
If you purchase an original 1970’s Gordon Head style home today and updated to modern day standards it will cost around $300,000 depending on the quality of the updates. That updating wouldn’t be accounted for in the repeat sales method. The different data bases to obtain that data are not linked or not available. The data base I would like to have is the bank’s data on their mortgage loans showing the physical and locational aspects of the properties . No one is going to get access to that premium data.
The median works much better as it is includes in its data the trend of renovating older homes in both time periods. It’s weakness is that the further the original purchase and the current date are apart it can be influenced by new developments that come on stream, changing trends or massive infrastructure such as sewers and highways that would have been constructed between the two time periods. Langford being a good example as the style and size of the lots from the 1970’s is different than today as are sewers and highways that have been built. But in established urban areas in the core you won’t have those factors to deal with and the data will be of a higher quality. You could account for this change by bracketing the median by age of the homes or by lot size so that you are comparing the same stock of housing at different times and getting an apples to apples comparison. The time bracketed span selected and geographical area chosen are also crucial. But then you are exchanging quantity for quality in the data. You want enough data to make the analysis meaningful but not too wide of an area either. And that requires a judgement call which could result in unknowingly cherry picking the data. You need to develop experience in how to select the data and then test the results with comparable sales and that requires human involvement.
The median Sales to Assessment Ratio works well too, once you exclude the outliers. The problem is that the real estate board lags by months in updating to the new assessments and then purges the old assessments from their workable data base. You can use it to determine how prices have changed during the last 12 months but not much further back.
There isn’t one way that is the best way. Each has their strengths and each has their weaknesses. It’s a matter of reconciling the different methods and testing to determine if the results are reliable and reasonable. And for these reasons a statistical analysis such as Teranet or Landcor can only be used as supportive evidence to the sales comparison approach when estimating individual properties.
Lenders want to go to a statistical system. Not to save costs but to speed up the application process. So would prospective purchasers that want an unbiased third party assessment before they submit an offer. I can run a statistical analysis on most properties and have a preliminary analysis done in 30 minutes with a three paragraph report excluding limiting conditions, rather than go through the appraisal process that requires a couple of days, site visit, and a ten plus page report. Most of the time this works well for the intended purpose but then there are exceptions and then you would need to go to a full appraisal. At this time it isn’t possible to develop a fully automated system that gives consistent results within an acceptable margin of error. Companies like Teranet and Landcor have been trying to develop fully Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) for individual properties but haven’t been successful to the point of being consistently reliable to an acceptable margin of error. The numbers they auto generate are just not good enough. Knowledgeable Human assistance is still necessary to make crucial judgement calls. And that’s why Leo’s numbers are more accurate and reliable on a macro level. He can use his judgement and accumulated experience.
It’s not a good situation, and it’s clearly something that needs to be fixed (and can be, since this wasn’t the case a decade ago). American health care will bankrupt you. American Health Care is also more bureaucratic than the BC Government.
No issues with the individual government workers! Only the government. The majority of my tenants over the years have been BC Government employeed, all great experiences. Three of the BC Goverment employeed tenants I helped purchase properties in the end. I was cheering for higher wage increases for the public sector as it benefits me.
I am simply of the opinion that too much government/beuracracy/inefficiency is part of the reason for lack of housing affordability. I believe this to be a reasonable stance. I don’t want people to be shocked when we are in an inventory crisis again in 2 to 5 years.
What exactly is the difference between living in the US without healthcare insurance and living in Canada with universal healthcare but no access to health care? What use is universal healthcare if I don’t have a GP, walk-in clinics booked solid at 8:01 am, Telus two weeks unless you want to keep clicking refreshing for 4 hours hoping someone cancels. If you have strep throat and need penicillin you have to go sit in emerg for 10 hours infecting everyone else. Yay univerisal health care!
Look to the health outcomes for US citizens without private coverage and the cost to the system. The service is better when you have a great health plan, but absolute misery for a whole cohort of society and the US private pay system ranks dead last in the 11 commonwealth countries on all sorts of measures, including admin efficiency. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/press-release/2021/new-international-study-us-health-system-ranks-last-among-11-countries-many#:~:text=Health%20Care%20Outcomes%3A%20The%20U.S.%20ranks%20at%20the,preventable%20with%20timely%20access%20to%20effective%20health%20care.
I agree there is room for some level of regulated private pay, and user fees like in Japan. This would curb overuse and allow for set price referrals to private operators who may be able to deliver some services more efficiently.
You just have to look south of the border to see how well privatized health care works. Fine for those that are rich, everyone else suffers.
“If GPs could go work somewhere for 500k…….”
That ‘somewhere’ would be BC with the stroke of a pen: privatize.
Longer ago than I care to admit I spent a decade on the Dark Continent. The Groucho-Marxist government of my chosen country decided that the prices of all foods would be controlled. On any given morning, you could stroll down to the city market and in the hundred or so stalls you could find….. nothing. A cavernous building with perhaps one lady with a half-dozen onions on a good day. After a year, the comedy was halted and all controls lifted. Literally (in the pristine sense) overnight, every stall was filled knee-deep with the most luscious of fruits and vegetables. In our case, we would be knee-deep in knee (!) replacements, cochlear implants and CT scanners.
People dear to you are suffering in order that effete politicians can strut and preen their socialist credentials. Enough already.
LMAO, the level of sourness to government workers is strong! We’ve hired a some people from the province, I think mostly they’ve worked out ok. I believe they were mostly all exempt workers though, may have hired one or two union ones.
Leo, could you do an update for the rest of the island? I’m curious how much prices have corrected using the sale price to assessment ratio. Thanks.
Yep with the new deal GPs won’t have to see so many patient’s in a day to pay the bills They will be able to spend more quality time with each of them
Let’s hope the new deal that doctors voted 94% in favour of goes a ways towards helping us retain and attract MDs.
The new agreement takes effect soon, on January 31st.
Know your limit and wrench within it!
Case in point: needed to replace a wheel bearing a little while ago. Watched some YouTube videos. Seemed somewhat doable. But in the end decided to take it to a shop because I thought, in all probability, the hub bearing assembly would be rust-welded to the knuckle after 17 years. That turned out to be the right decision.
I pick and choose what I tackle. Another example: I don’t do messy jobs like coolant flushes.
Yup, gotta take steps to reduce risk when you’re working on your daily driver.
When we get an EV, we’ll probably keep the ICE car, which will take any pressure off when working on it. Another reason to keep the ICE car is so the kids can curb-rash it, rather than the Tesla, when learning to parallel park, in a few years.
You missed a few steps. First they have to find a few floors of class A office space, preferably in a newly built Jawl Properties building at the highest possible price and worst possible lease terms. Then they need to hire a consultant to hire an architectural firm to design the office partitions/office improvements. After the office improvements are finished with a million revisions the contractor bills handsomely for they will be ready to start.
They also have to take a page out of the City of Victoria and throw up on their website that they are short staffed and to expect long turn around times -> https://www.victoria.ca/EN/main/residents/planning-development/permits-inspections.html
Not sure if the bulletin on the website or the answering machine come first?
I bet the first thing the 24 new “fast-track permitting” government hires do is setup their answering machine to screen all calls. And let it fill up so you can’t even leave them a message.
December Teranet for Victoria
+ 2.1% (+1.1% Seasonally adjusted)
These were the highest numbers measured for any city with pop. > 150,000
Since they are based on sale price data at time of closing rather than sale date, they are expected to be lagging by 3 months (ie September)
Even accounting for the lag, these seem bizarre for a number of reasons. Seems like Teranet has run off the rails. They should try powering it off and on.
I’ll stick with Leo’s sale price over assessment chart
Barrister- British sports car were designed to work on 95% of the time so you can drive them 5% of the time.
Almost 1600? No wonder the service industry can’t find workers, they all went and took a 1 month course (stretched over 6 months to make it seem significant) and became RE agents. Easy money right? You were asking about those that can afford 80-100k cars but were struggling on the cognitive side of things were you not?
I know no one wants to admit it but money is a great motivator. If clinical hospital nurses were 150k/year base salary + overtime I don’t think so many people would be exiting for a “work/life balance.”
If GPs could go work somewhere for 500k and not have to run a business all of a sudden there wouldn’t be a shortage.
If I was making 130k, for example, as an ICU/Emerg respiratory therapist I would have never quit.
This is my simplified impression of the current situtation. We have 5 clinical jobs at 100k/year and 5 admin jobs in “decision support” at 80k/year for a total salary of 900k/year. We would be better off with 6 clinical jobs at 130k/year and 2 admin jobs in “decision support” at 80k/year for a total salary of 940k/year. If we can hire 202 bc government employees to communicate between ministries re speeding up permits pretty sure we have the resources to increase clinical staff pay.
I agree that working in healthcare sucks, but it sucks a lot less with adequate compensation.
I am not blaming the individual, I am blaming the system. If I worked at City of Victoria or Saanich would I stay late on a Thursday to catch up on emails heading into my flex friday? Of course I wouldn’t, I am not better than anyone else. I would go home, enjoy my three day weekend and I would get back to developers/builders/home owners on Monday, Tuesday or in two weeks or two months. What are they going to do? Complain to the manager who is also on a flex Friday? Then what, they will complain to the major/council who just care about getting elected which is all talk, making promises and then zero action.
I know my current role in society is irrelevant but if at midnight my inbox is not down to zero I start losing business. As of this morning 1594 other agents to choose from.
I do most of the work on my old TR6 but it is not daily transport. The old cars are lot easier to work on and provide a certain amount of joy.
Exactly why I objected to the comment “turning wrenches is pretty fun”. couple of knuckle scrapes later and it’s not so fun anymore…..
I do all my own work on cars and agree that you can save significant money. My tools were bought well over 40 years ago and have long since paid for themselves. If a job like changing pads and rotors goes smoothly you will save lots of $ but I would be a little careful setting expectations. The easy part is changing the rotor and pads. The hard part is learning how to deal with seized calipers that won’t back off enough to get it off the rotor, stuck bolts, stripped screws, broken off bolts, brake hoses that break down internally and won’t pass brake fluid quickly enough etc. etc. It can be discouraging to get your daily driver all apart on Sunday afternoon and get stuck or break something needed to get it back together to drive to work on Monday. I changed a front wheel bearing the other day and was a bit surprised when I was all done and that it had all gone smoothly. The older I get the lower my expectations are! Working on cars is an excellent example of the old adage: “Good judgement comes from experience. Experience? That comes from bad judgement.” Knowing when to back off on pulling on a stuck bolt instead of breaking it is a good example.
As someone in healthcare who has seen more than a handful of people leave practice for admin jobs or exit healthcare altogether… Working in healthcare sucks. Patients are entitled; patient family members can be abusive; the pay doesn’t meet the needs of COL; and the job gets harder and harder as the weight of the system bears down on you.
No one I know wants to be in patient care anymore, and those who have left practice are much more satisfied with their work/life balance. Even my own family doc refuses to resume his regular pre-pandemic office hours because he can spend more time doing what he wants instead of serving ungrateful patients like me.
I should also be VicAUTOanalyst… LMAO Iooks like Frank is actually also agreeing to something that makes sense for once.
You should be able to save north of 700 bucks on rotor and pad replacement on all 4 wheels (doing it yourself vs going to a dealer). Should be able to do this within 1.5 hours for a newbee with hand tools.
Clearly you haven’t turned enough wrenches…..
Always love the unsolicited hardo cyclist advice lol
And many in those admin jobs have been filled by former nurses that have the experience and skillsets to immediately help the current healthcare situation by returning to ICUs and ERs, but much like how you left the healthcare system to be a realtor they’ve left the clinical care side of the healthcare system and gone into admin where they can work from home, keep 9-5 hours and call you when they want to buy a house. Can you blame them?
I get what you are saying, it would be way better to reduce process instead of just adding people to crank the gears. That said if delays right now are due to files sitting there backlogged then adding more resources to process them does help.
I commented on this change here: https://www.interior-news.com/news/b-c-to-overhaul-approval-process-for-building-houses-in-hopes-of-increasing-supply/
Basically this does not affect urban housing which is mostly in municipal hands. That said it could materially move some big Indigenous projects in the lower mainland more quickly. But what I really want to see is hard targets set. Max X months of processing time and then regular reports on where they’re at.
I did work in a hospital and I happen have a MHA from UBC….look up ratio of clinical vs non-clincial staff now vs 50 years ago.
There is literally like a “decision support” office in one of the administrative buildings at the Jubilee. I haven’t dug into the numbers lately but I am guessing at this point more than 50% of Island Health is non-clinical staff which is really helpful when you need to turn a 250 lb ventilated patient in ICU.
I haven’t changed oil since I was a teenager. Major pain in the ass, especially the oil filter. My time and safety ( the car has to be up in the air) are far too valuable. Plus my mechanic is nearby and does it for $40 in less than an hour. Again, not something apartment dwellers or condo owners can easily achieve.
This is the right decision 🙂
Owner-builder exam is realistically a non-factor in housing. Even before the exam you only had 2,500 owner-builders in BC every year. It isn’t enough to move the needle. The 100% useless exam is rather a reflection of how messed up housing is. There is all this talk about affordable housing but it would take one simple decision to increase the speed and reduce costs for 2,500 people every year without sacraficing anything (other than some government positions) and what does the government do? Nothing. I repeat. Reduce delays reduce costs zero negative consequences and no action.
This is a small item but they do the same on big items. Talk, no action.
Entirely depends on what these people are doing Marko. You obviously worked with it at the hospital. If they’re hiring 200 more nurses then it would actually accomplish something, if they’re hiring 200 more managers to more effectively manage the nurses, then we’re well and truly fucked. I’ve noticed a massive difference between reporting directly to a director, and reporting through a team lead to an AD to a director.
That guess was spot on! When I crunched the numbers a year or two ago, it came to $42 savings per oil change.
You can get a 5-L jug of full-synthetic oil at Walmart for $25. So I’m using a higher-quality oil than I was when I was taking my car to the shop, and I’m still saving money overall.
But like I said before, it’s not only about saving money for me.
Shopping and turning wrenches is pretty fun.
I have to go to Hartland once in a while anyway to recycle other stuff, so it’s no big deal to recycle my used oil there.
For sure. Plan to do brake replacement myself next time. Looking forward to it.
Regarding the hiring of so many additional people for this new coordinated permitting process, what I find particularly frustrating is the almost admittance of government waste. They say that while the single application window is being established over the coming months, permit and authorization decisions will be expedited through a cross-ministry team focused solely on processing housing permits. If they can find a way to do this quickly in the interim, without a bunch of new hires, why the need to hire 200+ later? Sigh.
One approach I would like to see attempted to help the homeless is to put homeless shelters in close proximity to animal shelters. They could interact with each other, possibly giving a homeless person something positive in their dismal lives. We all know the benefits of the love our pets give us and the positive affects caring for one can have. It’s an idea that should be tried on a small scale.
It is but is 202 extra government employees going to help? It will just be 10 extra forms….sorry you forgot form T4782K2. Please resubmit. They aren’t firing any people from the other ministries holding up big projects and they won’t.
Assuming they could get past the permitting process which can take months and involves hiring consultants such as structural engineers, then actually building the home and passing all the municipal inspections, blower tests, getting engineering schedules/certificates, etc. like any other licenced builder. When you build an owner builder you don’t get a free pass to all the checks and balances whether there is an exam or not. That is why the exam is so pointless. Just adds costs and delays.
And no they can’t sell it because there is legislation re selling a owner built home within a certain period of time after occupancy. Exam doesn’t change this yet again.
An opinion which is of no help to the current situation as it proposes no solution. And having bad parents or trauma is not something you choose as a child or adult. I personally do support teaching parenting skills to all Canadians, but it probably won’t happen.
I think we need to stop accepting homelessness as an option for public property the same way we don’t accept it on private property, but with diversion to mandatory assessment/treatment/housing.
I blame it on parenting or lack there of.
Would that mean anyone with a heart beat would be able to build houses potentially for sale?
Isn’t the permitting thing aimed at big projects that get hung up because provincial approval is required? You’re not owner-building a 20 storey highrise on the site of a former glue factory with a salmon-bearing stream running through it, so I’m not sure what the owner-builder exam has to do with anything. I guess getting rid of it would make it easier to build SFDs in Langford and Shawnigan, which I don’t have a problem with…I just don’t think it would make that big of a difference overall.
It is not just Victoria that has this problem and it is not a shortage of affordable market housing problem imo, although a shortage of supportive housing is partly to blame.
I’m so fed up with homelessness not being addressed in a manner that actually works. The rate of PTSD for workers (outreach/police/health) who have to deal with this mass problem is super high. Trying to band aid it is not working for anyone.
How is a homeless person suffering with untreated mental illness and addictions in a manner than harms themself severely even exercising free will? And if this is free will, there are reasonable limits when it impacts everyone.
My view is that homelessness should not be a legal option and enforcement should be immediate. Not in terms of criminal consequences, but in terms of mandatory next steps on a path to supportive housing.
Yep rest assured nothing will change other than adding more regulation It’s not just real estate so gotta just live with it and prosper
[Never mind; but this is still maddening.]
Honestly makes me rather move out of this town before it gets completely hollowed out. You already are seeing the lack of services and the mass of homelessness because people can’t actually live here, it’s only going to get worse.
I keep saying this over and over again. Politics or the optics might change but the beuracracy won’t. There is no reason for staff anywhere to implement changes to make things easier as that means loss of job security, and politicians typically aren’t bold, brave, or smart enough to clean house as that is their voter base in the first place.
Eby is a classic example…let’s fix a problem by hiring 203 bc government employees lol. That’s in reality going to create a problem irrelevant of what he says. If they wanted actual change they would eliminate the owner builder exam, for example, and reduce costs, reduce time to build, and fire 10-12 government employees that oversee a completely useless piece of housing policy.
There is literally a million other things that would actually help that they don’t want to do. Like I don’t know maybe target construction once in a while for provincal nominees? Instead of tech followed by more tech https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/Invitations-To-Apply
My Croatian tech friends arrive here, work in tech, buy real estate. My Croatian construction friends here, work in construction, can’t get a provincial nomination, and get shipped back to Croatia. I wonder why we have a problem.
The extra 1/2 story will negatively impact the quality of life someone has living in a SFH three blocks away, obviously.
It should but in won’t. Instead of overriding it the province will hire 200 people that will look into overriding it, but it won’t actually happen otherwise you would need to let 200 people go.
There is no reason to be optimistic on housing so might as well take advantage of it (own multiple properties long term).
This is the type of stuff that should be overridden by the province.
You’ve emphasized how this is standard operating procedure, and yet I’m still blown away every time I see these examples. Maddening.
Gotta love how city staff also recommends rejecting the 7 townhouses on Shelbourne because they’re 3 stories and the Oaklands plan from 19 fucking 93 has a 2.5 storey limit. Oh and also the townhouses aren’t “human scale”.
What a joke.
My thoughts below three weeks ago on HHV….at 2.8% 5 year bond yield + mortgage war between the big 5 could very well result in 4.29%. Given prices seem to be stabilizing at 5%, 4.3% could really stabilize things given the non-existent inventory.
“I will throw out a random interest rate prediction/guess. 5-year bond market stabilizes around 3%, the big banks have a mortgage war in the spring and we see 5 year fixed rates as low as 4.3% from the big banks and perhaps as low as 3.99% for special products. I would also not be surprised if bond market went north of 4%.”
100%. Not sure how much a brake job is these days – I assume around $500? Seems like a lot of money for something that requires undoing a couple bolts and takes about 30 minutes.
Victoria housing related -> https://twitter.com/RyanJabs/status/1615511315757555713
Real issues here is the risk tolerance of banks and how much risk premium they price in on the mortgages (if rates go down by 1% but risk premium rises by 1% then its neutral to mortgages). Bay Street insider contacts have told me this has changed over the past 6 months
Haha EV discussion has blanket exemption from offtopic rules. I can discuss those all day too… don’t get me started.
Self performing oil changes IMO is the worst in terms of value as the actual cost difference is probably $40 versus getting someone else to do it and for your troubles you have to go buy oil, filter, jack the car up, get your hands dirty and dispose of the old oil. Doing brakes yourself (pad and rotor changes) is where you actually get value and it’s not too much harder than changing oil.
It was briefly there in August and even lower in July, lets see if it stays. But yes, does the Bank of Canada raising next week do anything to real estate if fixed rates are lower? Zero reason to go variable
Sounds like a great plan!
Oh man, as soon as our mortgage is gone we’re gonna be saving up so hard and fast for an EV. Plan to pay cash for it; don’t want to borrow money ever again, if possible.
Love our trusty ICE vehicle, though. It’s a 2005 Toyota with 265,000 klicks on it. In the last couple of years I’ve started doing the oil changes myself — to save money and because I’ve always wanted to do it but was too apprehensive to try. Turns out, I love it and find it extremely satisfying!
No one talking about 5 year CAD yield dropping below 3%?
@thurston 909 Deal sold for $1.75M
You’re not going to melt. Just get a jacket & some pants. Even if you buy goretex, you’re coming out ahead.
Ebikes are good when they are good though.
Not to be confused with refining your own crude oil in a condo, which is safe and convenient. Although some people report a bit of an aftertaste in their pressure cookers.
I sold my truck last may and bought a nice ebike. I have saved over 10k in payments, gas insurance and maintenance. Lucky I live in a small town where its actually faster to get around on an ebike, especially if its modded. I just cant go anywhere when its raining unless my wife lets me use her car.
Some more catnip for EV haters
I don’t see a problem either. An RS4 or M3 is going to chew tires just as fast as a M3 LR/P. People like to compare a >300HP model 3 to a camry and then complain about tire wear. Heavy cars (ie, all of the ones you listed) plus high power = reduced tire life.
Your UCC is 0 so your recapture should be the 25k I’d think. There is no limit on reusing the 100% CCA ZEV deduction in 2023 so this should also apply to your new purchase. It may be advantageous for you to do this this year as the 100% CCA is reduced starting 2024. It is probably helpful for you to have the 100% deduction in the year you sell and have recapture.
Anyone for a price on 909 deal st suprised it sold so quick cheers
Slow sales, slow listings (once you exclude everyone re-listing which should be banned imo), and even the price decreases have slowed down a lot. Only 6 today. Not much to talk about 🙂
Every day there is an article about how EVs are going to collapse parkades across North America citing the weight of the Rivian, Hummer EV, etc.
When you look at the Model 3 @ 1612 kg vs Audi A4 @ 1645 kg vs BMW 3-series at 1660 kg I don’t see problem.
Model Y 1847 kg vs Audi Q5 1850 kg vs BMW X3 1882 kg.
Lol, my apologies I got everyone off topic here. Better get back on track before Leo sees!
Insider contacts are telling me CAP rate expansion on commercial RE happening (e.g. price going down).
The electric car show, “Fully Charged” talked about the issue of tire wear on electric cars and they said that has become a non issue.
They said there used to be problems with “worn or flat points on the tires because of the braking and the weight. But that has changed now that most electric cars use the one pedal braking system – which brakes the car without using the brake pedal.
I love this system and I rarely ever actually put my foot on the regular brake…even for traffic lights.
Anyway. I realize this is a housing forum, so I will not say anymore on that subject.
Very good point Barrister. I’m glad you asked.
But where there is a will, there is a way:)
Look at Europe and how it is tackling the problem with some exciting forward thinking ideas.
This includes high rise buildings and public buildings.
We did 3 oil changes and drove for about 6km over the past three years on/with our car, about the same mileage we put on our e-bikes (not combined) for that period. A Tesla would be nice, but we plan to care and drive our dear 2004 168,000km old Honda Accord to the very end. 😉
Am I on Auto hunt Victoria now? 😉
I think it’s more to do with EVs being considerably heavier and more powerful. But the big wheels don’t help either.
They go up in flames in Vancouver too -> https://youtu.be/dQxm6n7SdvE
Horrific plane crash in Nepal a couple of days ago. Similar plane to the Dash-8 frequently used here. Does that mean I am going to drive to Calgary instead? No I am still flying. Odds of dying driving to Calgary must be like 50-100x higher than flying.
I save more than 5-6k a year in gas even after I factor in cost of electricity.
A car comparable to size/power of Model S would be 15L/100km real life driving conditions. If you drive 40,000 km that is 6000 liters. 6000 liters x 1.7 = $10,200.
As for tires Teslas get a bad reputation because they have these idiotic 20 or 21″ wheels including mine. I only get 45k out of my 21″ tires. A friend has a model s with 19″ and he gets 70,000-80,000 km on his tires.
Yes obviously a used toyota yaris with a 1.5L engine and 15″ wheels would be way cheaper to operate.
7 EVs go up in flames every day in China. Might be difficult to verify, but China’s population dropped by 800,000 last year. Migration? Covid ?Incineration? Apartment bungee jumping?
I was t-boned last July out of nowhere. Had the right of way and got hit directly under the gas filler cap. Was not worried for one second about a fire.
I am not sure if an EV is $6,000 cheaper to operate than a used ICE vehicle. Is this per year? Moreover EV tires need to be changed at double the frequency.
So Deryk, will you tell all the people who live in a condo or apartment the way to easily make electricity.
Totoro…when I bought out my Model S lease at $45k my accountant was able to write off 100% due to it being an EV and being bought out directly from Tesla. If I sell it for 25k that’s the recapture amount right? Then I write off the 58k Model Y?
The gas/maintenance savings is one thing but more important for me is the time saved of no service BS. All these newer cars for some reason you have to leave them 1/2 day at the dealership for an oil change and when you drive upwards of 40,000 km/year that means multiple days having to drop off the car. Also, don’t have to visit a gas station once or twice a week.
If you drive a ton like I do EV makes a lot of sense. If you drive 10k/year than maybe not.
Depends on what you drive and how much. I don’t spend 2K/year on gas and maintenance in the first place. But if the numbers work go for it. Probably will go EV for my next car but no rush.
That is kind of surprising. GST and PST on a Tesla 3 are about 7k.
How much are you spending on gas and maintenance on a $3500 used gas vehicle? EVs are much lower to operate (gas and maintenance) overall ie. 2000/year less.
No doubt it is cheaper than buying new but, for a realtor buying personally or through a corporation, for example, they are going to save:
use retained earnings earned at the small business tax rate to purchase and expenses and charging are deductible based on % of business use
have a 100% CCA the first year – so save about 20-22k in income tax off the bat if they are in the 50% tax bracket whether incorporated or personal
qualify for about 6-7k in EV rebates
So by year three your 58k purchase has saved you 6k in operational costs and 20k in income taxes (subject to some recapture on eventual sale of vehicle) and it is still worth what – 45k?
You are left with a vehicle that is worth 45k that has cost you 38k out of pocket and been 6k cheaper to operate than the used vehicle and probably a whole lot more reliable which reduces the stress cost – which I calculate for everything I do now.
And a realtor might not want to be showing clients around in a $3500 beater.
I’m not saying that you should not buy a cheap used vehicle and invest the difference (about 7k return over three years if the difference is 50k). That is going to be cheaper out of pocket for sure. Just not so sure the difference is as large as you are imagining at the end of the day and for some people it makes a lot of sense, never mind the lower emissions.
I also meant to mention, (For those who worry about electricity prices going up) that one can easily make your own electricity. We plan on doing that if prices go up.
According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, some 400 cars go up in flames in the US daily, or rather, one vehicle in the US burns every 3.6 minutes every day.
We rarely see those in the news though:)
Not only that, you also don’t have to worry about the battery exploding and buring you alive.
I can buy 2 good used vehicles for the taxes on a Tesla, and bank 50-60 grand.
I’d be very cautious with those kind of choices, Barrister. They seem judicious, mature, balanced, and reasoned. That kind of thing is strenuously opposed by the Tesla Torquemadas.
The newest car I own is a 2012 and I am hoping to get at least another ten years out of it. My second car is a 2002 and it still runs brilliantly. But I would consider an electric eventually if the price of electricity does not start to skyrocket by then.
With these blowout population growth numbers being seen in Canada, it seems likely that population growth in various cities in Canada like Victoria will be mostly limited by available dwellings. This might seem obvious now, but for a decade we have been reading many MSM stories about condo overbuilding in cities like Toronto. Turns out, all these condos will be filled.
Great article Leo.
Model 3 you mean.
I need a hatchback for my real estate signs and crap. Tough to fit into a trunk (Model 3).
Closest I’ve come to an impulse purchase in a long time. The Tesla website makes it so easy.
You can get a Model 3 (edited! tx Marko) for $54,999 less rebates of about 7k (plus tax) delivered in a few weeks to Victoria.
Canada’s population up an incredible 0.9% (362,463) in Q3… (same 0.9% as BC)
Quarterly population estimate — Canada 39,292,355 October 1, 2022 0.9% increase (quarterly change)
Source(s): Table 17-10-0009-01.
Canada’s population was estimated at 39,292,355 people on October 1, 2022, an increase of 362,453 people (+0.9%) from July 1, 2022. This was the highest quarterly population growth rate since the second quarter of 1957 (+1.2%). At the time, Canada’s population was 16.7 million people and it increased by 198,000 people. This rapid population growth was related to the high number of births during the post-war baby boom and the high immigration of refugees following the Hungarian Revolution in 1956.
This recent three-month growth of over 362,000 people is a similar level of growth that Canada used to see in an entire year about one decade ago. For example, during the whole of 2011, Canada’s population grew by 350,253 people.
Canada’s total population growth for the first nine months of 2022 (+776,217 people) has already surpassed the total growth for any full-year period since Confederation in 1867. This high level of growth was mostly (94.0%) due to international migration (+340,666 people), which pushed Canada’s population over 39 million for the first time.
In the third quarter of 2022, Canada welcomed 122,145 immigrants, about the same number as in the third quarter of 2021 (122,911) and the second-highest number of immigrants in any third quarter since 1946, the year quarterly data became available. Immigration levels remained elevated, reflecting higher targets from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
However, the record population growth in the third quarter of 2022 was mainly driven by an increase of 225,198 non-permanent residents (NPRs). This increase was almost 68,000 more people than the last record increase, in the second quarter of 2022 (+157,310).
The increase of NPRs in the third quarter of 2022 was larger than any full-year increase since 1971 (when data on NPRs became available). This increase was driven by work permit holders, but all types of NPRs increased, and Canada continued welcoming people fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. All provinces and territories saw an increase in the number of NPRs, with Ontario (+106,459), British Columbia (+39,429) and Quebec (+34,299) accounting for 80.0% of the increase.
I am personally waiting for a rwd model Y @ $57,900 +/- before ev rebates later this year. Hasn’t been confirmed but I believe they will have to offer it to keep their two US factories busy.
I showed 6 condos downtown Langford yesterday and I walked between all the buildings, dt Langford is no Vic West, personally just not my cup of tea. That being said some very large rental projects recently finished and looking at the balconies full of crap they are already packed with people/families living in there. One rental on Peatt must be over 150 units, huge.
Have to give credit to Langford where it is due. They’ve provided tabgible housing units. I am fine with the new council saving trees but hope everyone realizes it will probably mean less housing units.
Vicreanalyst good call on the used car market u nailed it
So the suggestion here is to wait until spring/summer for car purchases if feasible?
Canadians too…FB Tesla Owners Canada for example but yea American threads on forums are like 100s of pages deep.
Most of the comments are probably from Americans and they are like 60k cars there so I think that’s a different tax bracket of people than the ones here that paid 80-90k pre luxury tax.
LMAO that was when I told Frank that my insider contacts were telling me the used car market had turned. Too funny, the dealers are now just hoping Tesla either reverses the price cuts or customers are too dumb to clue in.
For context a brand new Model Y performance ordered from Tesla is 75,990 with delivery in Feb at the latest.
Totally agree re used car market. Writing was on the wall in August/September for the car market. Buying a car at 2% loan is a little different than 6.75%. Tesla was offering 5 to 10k incentives in December and I was literally commenting online that I would wait until Q1.
People bought Teslas in November and are now shocked and pissed off their model is 15k less msrp. No one forced you to buy it.
I also love all the comments about how no other car company would screw their clients over like this….ha ha no they keep the msrp on the website the same and offer a 15k dealer discount. As I said hard to believe people driving 80k cars can be so dumb.
Dealers too, for Model Y almost all would have book value higher than what a brand new one currently sells for and are likely upside down on their floor financing. The tesla cut also puts pressure on other manufacturers to cut their price and that puts more pressure on the used market. Very interesting, I think the standard model 3 with full bc incentive is now 46k (55k less 9k).
Not possible. Uvic is half in Saanich and half in Oak Bay. All UVic dormitory buildings are in Saanich side, the half in Oay Bay has no dormitory buidings. Plus there shoud be more student suites in Saanch than in Oak Bay. So the increase in OB can’t be from the students.
@Marko Juras, I’m not exactly in the market for a used Tesla but I’m a car hobbyist and so I’m always perusing Marketplace and Craigslist (cars are much cheaper in Vancouver, folks!) for used cars to see if there is a deal. Tons of Teslas popping up right now. Best example was last week a Model 3 Long Range 2020 with 135,000 km. Asking $68K when it would have been about $73K in 2020. Ridiculous. I am seeing cracks in the market though – sports cars are always the first to drop. Saw a Focus RS drop $8k the other day, Corvettes dropping prices right and left. First signs of the market changing and I’m thinking there will be some deals in the spring and summer as people off-load their toys. Prices are incredibly sticky though and used sellers really are holding out as long as they can! What people think their 25 year old Toyota is worth is really surprising. Of course the cars sit and sit and sit and eventually they slice the price in half and it’s gone.
I think a return of UVic students could account for it, after all 1.2% of 18K isn’t much.
We are only comparing the worldest tallest building at the time to some foodframed townhomes.
One person died at Customs House, one person died at Vivid, etc., and these are small projects in comparison.
Who knows how many people died in Qatar.
Crazy how many Tesla owners complaining about Tesla dropping prices 15%. Understanding of markets whether it be cars or real estate seems to be non-existent. I don’t understand how people can be so dumb but yet be financially able to buy a 60-100k car.
You still have people asking more for used Teslas than what I new one now costs.
I am surprised. 🙁
Maybe suite additions for that ~200 head increase (ahead of the bylaw)?
If the bears want something to cheer on then forget the housing market, the used car market is where the action is right now.. Sooo many bagholders!!!
Officially, 5 people also died during the making of the ESB as well (unofficially 14).
Empire State Building is an office building not housing of course, but the big inaccuracy here is comparing the construction time only of the ESB with the entire planning, approval and construction time of those townhomes. I had a look at the history of the ESB and there were years of planning and revision before the construction actually started, and this was on a site already zoned for commercial use (it had a hotel which was torn down).