The population inflection

This post is 3 years old. The data and my views may have since evolved.

For a long time population growth in the region was quite sedate and predictable, growing slowly at around 1%/year and that’s what the CRD has used to project population for the next 20 years in the Regional Growth Strategy.    However starting in 2011, population growth in many parts of the Greater Victoria area accelerated suddenly, and this new higher rate of growth has continued up to 2020, the most recent data available.

Average annual growth from 2001 to 2011 was 0.8%/year, while after 2011 it accelerated to 1.7%/year.  That 0.9% difference may not seem like much, but it brought an extra 31,000 people to the region in that time period.   Construction picked up in response, but the additional people moving here depleted housing inventory from 4108 in June 2011 to 1037 today.   Rental vacancy rates also stayed very low despite thousands of completed purpose built rentals in that time.

The increased rate of growth has also played havoc with population projections in our Official Community Plans.   Most egregiously, in Saanich our 2020 population was already 6000 more than the projected figure for 2026.

OCP.png

Victoria’s OCP is not much better, expecting a growth rate 0.75% compared to an actual 10 year annualized growth rate of 1.4%.   Many other municipalities experienced the same phenomenon (Oak Bay excepted), with growth picking up strongly.

The BC Expert Panel Report on Housing Supply & Affordability recently flagged the issue inherent in demographic projections.   Planners generally project past growth trends into the future to estimate housing needs, however the report authors identified that this approach is problematic “when trying to tackle housing shortages, which by definition involves breaking with the status quo”.  If you already have affordability problems, “planning to meet demographic projections often means planning to maintain or “bake in” today’s affordability issues”.   In this case not only did we project past growth into the future, but growth blew away those projections.   What happened?  Not only did affordability issues get baked in, but they got a lot worse.

Will growth continue at these levels or drop back down?  No one knows, but what’s clear is that our planning tools need to be much more responsive to current realities.  Relying on years or decades old data will never be an effective way to plan our future city.

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Barrister
Barrister
July 12, 2021 7:57 pm

As we all wait for the next article.

Frank
Frank
July 12, 2021 3:24 pm

The smoke is conducive to spread of the virus, it travels on any particulate matter in the air. Wear masks when outdoors and expect an increase in covid infections.

Introvert
Introvert
July 12, 2021 2:03 pm
Introvert
Introvert
July 12, 2021 1:58 pm

Strong Beijing vibes in the interior with all the smoke

RIP your lungs

Abbot
Abbot
July 12, 2021 1:42 pm

Thanks Leo. Good luck in the haze!

Abbot
Abbot
July 12, 2021 11:21 am

Anyone know what 224 Caspian sold for?

Frank
Frank
July 11, 2021 7:13 pm

Barrister- Who said anything about early, just when I can’t take care of myself. Might be another 40 years. Better hold onto my property, not too many job openings for cranky(er) 100 year olds.

Deb
Deb
July 11, 2021 4:49 pm

alcohol is the third biggest cause of preventable death

Nah, I would rather go with this report!
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/red-wine-good-or-bad

Barrister
Barrister
July 11, 2021 3:21 pm

Frank, it is okay if you want to go early.

Frank
Frank
July 11, 2021 2:41 pm

Dad- That’s my plan, when I can no longer take care of myself, I’m outta here.

Barrister
Barrister
July 11, 2021 1:55 pm

This is all fun but a bit off topic.

totoro
totoro
July 11, 2021 1:47 pm

Covid would have been over and done with a long time ago if people didn’t smoke.

Just not true.

Speaking of preventable illness, alcohol is the third biggest cause of preventable death (after smoking and diet/inactivity). It is a known carcinogen in addition to the other adverse health effects. https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/alcohol/alcohol-fact-sheet

Barrister
Barrister
July 11, 2021 1:41 pm

Education often has little impact on behavior.

Patrick
Patrick
July 11, 2021 1:20 pm

For those without a family doctor….

For anyone in need of top notch, personalized medical care, and doesn’t mind paying for it and traveling to Vancouver…there is Copeman Medical (recently bought out by Telus). https://www.telus.com/en/health/care-centres/locations/vancouver-nelson

Introvert
Introvert
July 11, 2021 12:32 pm

It’s not acutely relevant to the doctor shortage problem, but I’m continually amazed at how quickly and without hesitation people (extended family members included) reach for prescription and over-the-counter drugs to manage/attempt to solve health issues.

Eat crap, don’t exercise, then expect/hope a pill (which is expensive and includes a whack of negative side-effects) will fix you right up. Best plan!

totoro
totoro
July 11, 2021 12:32 pm

Think about this for a moment: the ideologues we have placed in power are happy to permit our native population to build socially corrosive gambling facilities on their land.

There is stiff competition between municipalities and casinos on FN lands are really rare in BC. The revenue sharing is extremely lucrative and a lot of social and municipal services can be provided so the municipalities compete between each other and with FNs and the decisions are made on the basis of stats and business case. It is not like the US as the jurisdiction is provincial and First Nations cannot simply decide to build a casino on their lands.

Should the natives decide that instead of providing slot machines to a needy nation they would rather put in a battery of MRI and CT-scan machines it would not be permitted as it would undermine our socialist paradise.

There probably is an argument that FNs can have for-profit medicine on reserve based on historic jurisdiction, but it is slippery slope when you talk about privatizing medicine. We’ve all seen how the US system has worked out and there is a reason why we protect against this.

Dad
Dad
July 11, 2021 12:27 pm

I dunno frank, I think the simplest solution would be to euthanize people before they get old and become a burden on the health care system.

As for tobacco products, government does not “provide” them to people, and they are heavily taxed to discourage use. That seems like a reasonable approach in a country where adults are still allowed to make adult decisions.

Introvert
Introvert
July 11, 2021 12:11 pm

The simple solution is to educate people so they don’t get sick.

A gram of prevention is worth a kilogram of cure.

Frank
Frank
July 11, 2021 12:00 pm

The simple solution is to educate people so they don’t get sick. 90% of all diabetes cases are preventable by diet and exercise. Obesity causes several health issues. Heavily tax junk food, subsidize natural foods. The problem with being a part of a socialized medical system is that the healthy have to support the uneducated sick people. I’d like to opt out. Doctors should be twiddling their thumbs, not over run by people inflicting health problems on themselves.

Karise
Karise
July 11, 2021 11:27 am

Barrister: I completely agree unfortunately I don’t see that happening.

Barrister
Barrister
July 11, 2021 11:15 am

Karise: The simple solution is to pay the staff more, a lot more, and truth be told they are worth it.

Barrister
Barrister
July 11, 2021 11:11 am

Patrick: To get a real picture of the situation one has to look at a few more factors such as how many of the doctors are practicing part time or on some form of reduced hours. Age and needs of the population is also a factor. As to people doing more doctor visits one factor is that my doctor requires a separate appointment for each ailment including prescription renewals (I suspect that it is a billing issue).

One of my neighbours has cut her practice down to just three days a week and what surprises me is that she is just 42 years old with no kids and in perfect health. It is a matter of work life balance for her (her expression not mine.

I know the difficulty that people are having getting a GP.

Karise
Karise
July 11, 2021 11:08 am

It’s not just Doctors. It’s nurses, paramedics and lab staff. Island health is in a staffing crises and it is directly related to the high cost of living on the island. If people in these professions have no hope of ever setting down roots here they will simply leave and they are in droves. The talk at the hospital is often about how everyone is moving here to retire and soon there will be no one to look after them if they need medical care. The next ten years should be interesting.

Frank
Frank
July 11, 2021 11:05 am

It boggles my mind that the government that provides us with a “health” care system also provides us tobacco products that make people ill. Covid would have been over and done with a long time ago if people didn’t smoke. When vaccines were first rolled out in the U.S., the CDC advised the government to vaccinate smokers first as they were the ones ending up on ventilators and dying. You would never hear that in Canada.

Patrick
Patrick
July 11, 2021 10:11 am

“ Another medical clinic set to close amid doctor shortage”
“As of Feb. 28, B.C. had 6,943 active family doctors, up from 6,251 in 2017. In the same period, however, B.C.’s population grew to 5.15 million from 4.89 million.”

I love how the media never does any math. Throw a bunch of numbers at us, and we will just assume it supports their story.

If you do look at those numbers and do the math, it actually points to good news, there 6% more GPs in the last four years per person.

We improved from one GP every 782 people in 2017 (4.89m/6251=782)
to one GP every 741 (5.15m/6953=741 un 2021).
That’s 6% more doctors per person in the past 4 years. Well done Adrian Dix and BC govt!

Yet this is spun as bad news, and let’s focus on one dr moving to Prince George. And not on the net 702 GP’s added to the system in the last four years

If you look at the GP numbers in other data sets, as I have, the problem is not GP supply, as it’s been increasing significantly over time. The problem is that people are seeing their doctors more times per year than they used to. Many times for trivial issues like routine prescription renewals or a BP check that could be handled by a nurse. And that issue will get worse with “dial a doc” tele-health. So yes, there is a problem, but it can be solved with less or more efficient patient visits (for minor problems of course), which free up Doctors time to see new patients. This can be done inside the doctors fee schedule, so they are incentivized to see new patients, and disincentivized to see the same patient repeatedly for minor issues. And having more physician assistants instead of doctors seeing patients like they do in the USA.

Stroller
Stroller
July 11, 2021 10:08 am

“Another medical clinic set to close amid doctor shortage”

But at least we have the satisfaction of staying true our socialist ideals.

Think about this for a moment: the ideologues we have placed in power are happy to permit our native population to build socially corrosive gambling facilities on their land. Should the natives decide that instead of providing slot machines to a needy nation they would rather put in a battery of MRI and CT-scan machines it would not be permitted as it would undermine our socialist paradise.

We are a long, long way down the rabbit hole, Alice.

Introvert
Introvert
July 11, 2021 9:38 am

So we don’t have enough homes or enough doctors in most parts of the country but we’re also going to set the immigration floodgate to the maximum open position.

Let me know how that works out for you, Canada.

Another medical clinic set to close amid doctor shortage

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/another-medical-clinic-set-to-close-amid-doctor-shortage-1.24340933

Frank
Frank
July 10, 2021 4:00 pm

We all know residential properties are through the roof. What about commercial properties, especially smaller buildings under 10,000 sq. ft.? Your insight please.

Frank
Frank
July 10, 2021 3:12 pm

Not only are rents high, the cost of shipping containers has doubled and tripled. That should increase prices at the dollar store.

Patrick
Patrick
July 10, 2021 1:10 pm

It looks like the same scenario with shortage of rentals in Victoria is occurring across Canada and the USA.

Here’s a depressing article about rentals in the USA.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/rent-prices-are-soaring-as-americans-flock-back-to-cities/ar-AALZFye

“ Nationwide, rent prices are up 7.5 percent so far this year [2021], three times higher than normal, according to data from Apartments.com. Analysts expect rent prices to keep climbing for the foreseeable future, a major burden for renters and a warning sign that higher inflation could linger far longer than the White House and Federal Reserve keep predicting.

The economy isn’t going back to February 2020. Fundamental shifts have occurred.
“I think we’re going to see increases for the next 12 to 18 months,” said Robert Pinnegar, president of the National Apartment Association. “We’ve never had three generations in the rental housing space, at least not in the numbers we’re seeing now.
“I tell my buyers: It’s a terrible time to buy, but it’s an even worse time to rent,” said Chey Tor, a Realtor at Re/Max Ascend Realty in Scottsdale, Ariz.“

Introvert
Introvert
July 10, 2021 12:57 pm

It is not really all that altruistic to rent below market. You get more applications and tenants don’t feel they are overpaying which makes for a better relationship. When we rented a place our landlords did the same and we are still close friends. Not saying I want to be friends with everyone, but it is better to set up a positive dynamic from the start as you will need to interact.

100% agree with all of this.

Another benefit of charging below-market rent is less turnover. Case in point, our current tenant is in the 10th year of a month-to-month agreement and both parties are very happy.

totoro
totoro
July 10, 2021 12:35 pm

It is a legal 3 bed in a triplex. It is not really all that altruistic to rent below market. You get more applications and tenants don’t feel they are overpaying which makes for a better relationship. When we rented a place our landlords did the same and we are still close friends. Not saying I want to be friends with everyone, but it is better to set up a positive dynamic from the start as you will need to interact.

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
July 10, 2021 11:52 am

Totoro, is that a three bedroom house or apartment/condo? Just wondering if SFH goes quicker with rentals.
It is nice to see that you are renting for slightly less than the going rate. I’ve done that myself in the past. At least you feel as though you are giving back a bit to society. This is one of the good things about “mom and pop” rentals.

Patrick
Patrick
July 10, 2021 11:28 am

Just posted our rental at slightly below market

Well done!

Frank
Frank
July 10, 2021 11:07 am

Any idea what 2313 Middowne went for? Thanks

Frank
Frank
July 10, 2021 9:37 am

Re: Denmark. I wonder how many immigrants they take in every year?

totoro
totoro
July 10, 2021 9:25 am

I don’t think so. Seems comparable. I think it is a combination of location/condition/3 bed, time of year and, most importantly, scarcity.

Barrister
Barrister
July 10, 2021 9:20 am

Totoro: With that many requests you might be more than slightly below market.

totoro
totoro
July 10, 2021 8:59 am

Wow. Just posted our rental at slightly below market and had 14 requests for showing before 9am. I had to take the ad down as all the times for viewing were full and I have no doubt it will be taken. It must be incredibly stressful to be looking for a new place right now. We need more rental housing.

Introvert
Introvert
July 10, 2021 7:55 am

Japan is trying to lure people into rural areas by selling $500 homes, but it’s not enough to fix the country’s ‘ghost town’ problem

insider.com/japan-ghost-towns-population-vacancy-rates-akiya-banks-2021-6

Introvert
Introvert
July 10, 2021 6:56 am

‘Get in now’: realtors urge renters to lock in lease before Canada’s border reopens

https://globalnews.ca/news/8016081/realtors-housing-market-lease-competition-border-reopen/

Patrick
Patrick
July 10, 2021 6:03 am

I was following up on another person’s post on Denmark remarking that it was a country with a lot of single family homes – unlike some other EU countries.

Right, good point.

Patrick
Patrick
July 10, 2021 5:42 am

If you rent below market, that person has a special advantage and is not at arm’s length.

No, the definition of arms length isn’t what rent you charge a stranger. It is only if you are giving them a “special” low rent because of who they are (family or a friend), and wouldn’t offer the same low rent to a stranger. Because they have no “special advantage” against anyone else. Lots of landlords rent under market to get better tenants, and those don’t become non arms length tenants. Those lucky tenants have an advantage (low rent) but not a “special” advantage under the law.

In any event, even if this was a concern, your interpretation of the test for non-arms length would be met by advertising and renting a small room (e.g. in one of the accessory buildings) to a stranger for market rent (maybe $1,000 a month), and you’d avoid $240K spec tax per year on the whole $12m property.

patriotz
patriotz
July 10, 2021 4:51 am

“A person who is at arm’s length is a person who has no special advantage in their dealings with you.

If you rent below market, that person has a special advantage and is not at arm’s length.

totoro
totoro
July 9, 2021 9:07 pm

Is there something for Canada to learn from Denmark about housing, like the social housing support?

That was my takeaway.

I was following up on another person’s post on Denmark remarking that it was a country with a lot of single family homes – unlike some other EU countries.

Per capita Denmark has 10% less floor space per person and yes, fewer people per household – in Canada about 2.5 and Denmark 2.2. Average home size there is 1500-1600 square feet – or I guess 15% less than that so maybe 1300 square feet by our measurements.

Barrister
Barrister
July 9, 2021 8:06 pm

Not a whole lot of stuff for sale out there.

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 8:00 pm

We live in an average size for Denmark home and it is great. However, on a per capita vs per square foot Canada and Denmark are not too far apart.

Your post earlier today was “ Danish SFHs are much smaller on average than those in BC”

And now you add this “ However, on a per capita vs per square foot Canada and Denmark are not too far apart.”

If both of those are true, it means Denmark has smaller houses than Canada , but they put less people in them per house, so they end up with the same space per person. How is that impressive? It seems they’d need to construct more houses to achieve that.

And the document you linked to says that Denmark house sizes are actually 15% smaller than they say “ However, the reason for this high average is that, in Denmark, housing area is calculated as the exterior gross floor area, which means that the thickness of exterior walls… In order to obtain truly comparable figures, the Danish figure must be reduced by about 15%, which means that Denmark is on a par with Sweden and the United Kingdom.“

On a casual glance, Denmark has a lower homeownership rate (60%) compared to Canada (69% (2018 statscan) ). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

So I guess I’m missing the point. Is there something for Canada to learn from Denmark about housing, like the social housing support?

totoro
totoro
July 9, 2021 7:07 pm

immigrant ( now Canadians)

So, you mean Canadian?

Do you think young Canadian families are ready to accept these small European-style homes as a long term housing solution?

We live in an average size for Denmark home and it is great.
http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/housesizeft21.gif

However, on a per capita vs per square foot Canada and Denmark are not too far apart.
http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Percapitaft22.gif

Dad
Dad
July 9, 2021 7:04 pm

Hey all,
I have a question about older house construction. I was talking to a friend about replacing old clay drain tile (you know you’re getting old when…) and long story short, he indicated to me that often older homes (mid-century and earlier) in Victoria were built without footings underneath the foundation walls.

Does anyone know if it was common practice back in the day to omit footings? I know this was/still is permitted by the building code if the ground can bear the load, but I imagine nowadays footings would be a given unless you’re pinning the foundation wall directly into bedrock.

Also, can anyone recommend a good company for cleaning out/scoping drain tile?

Thanks!

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 6:43 pm

That’s a non-arm’s length tenancy and is subject to these rules:

No.

That would only apply if you rented to a non-arms length tenant… usually a friend or a relative. If you rent to a stranger as a caretaker, in a bonafide position as caretaker, that’s arms length, and none of what you said applies. This of course makes sense, otherwise all kinds of landlords would pay spec tax if their tenants didn’t make 3X the rent in annual income, which would be absurd, as they have no control over the income of their tenants.

Here’s how they define “arms length” (ie a stranger to you)…

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/speculation-vacancy-tax/exemptions-speculation-and-vacancy-tax/individuals/tenancy-requirements

“A person who is at arm’s length is a person who has no special advantage in their dealings with you. On the other hand, family members, such as parents, adult children or siblings, can never be at arm’s length. Friends may also receive similar advantages. This type of relationship is referred to as “non-arm’s length”.

patriotz
patriotz
July 9, 2021 5:30 pm

Do you think young Canadian families are ready to accept these small European-style homes as a long term housing solution?

Anything will sell at the market price. As for “long term”, who intends to stay in their first home for the rest of their life?

patriotz
patriotz
July 9, 2021 5:13 pm

If they have a Canadian caretaker resident for more than six months in their $12m house , they wouldn’t pay spec tax as they are providing a dwelling for the caretaker.

That’s a non-arm’s length tenancy and is subject to these rules:

The tenant must:

Be a Canadian citizen or permanent resident
Be a resident of B.C. for income tax purposes at the end of the last day of the calendar year
Not be a member of a satellite family
Have a B.C. income for the calendar year that is equal to or greater than three times the annual fair market rent for the entire residential property

DuranDuran
July 9, 2021 4:46 pm

opulent 67-acre waterfront estate for $12-million

Man is that ever cheap. Subdivide, turn that $12M into $100M, pretty easy, right?

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 3:48 pm

Danish SFHs are much smaller on average than those in BC but the Danes seem super focussed on home ownership/quality

Thanks for the info.

I’m not sure if Canadians would be ready to accept the small homes as a solution to our housing problems. Have a look at this video, where we get a tour of a 1,000 sq ft Danish townhouse for a family of six. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LwPUv6FyMvM

They take genuine pride in the efficient use of space, where the LR functions doubles as a dining room, the kids share bedrooms, and the parents BR doubles as offices. And everything is efficiently packed away in drawers until needed.

But here, as Seinfeld said, many young kids are like “blenders without a lid.”

Do you think young Canadian families are ready to accept these small European-style homes as a long term housing solution?

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 3:38 pm

I’m just annoyed at the lack of questioning of the RE talking points in a major newspaper.

Fair enough. And thanks for posting the charts to show people the low numbers of foreign buying that goes on, especially in the last few years.
It gets people paying attention to the real cause (population growth) and solution (build more housing) to the housing problems.

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 3:30 pm

Also no sign of the resurgence of American buyers in the buyer origin stats.

Right. And we shouldn’t be concerned with a few foreigners buying these $10m+ luxury estates in North Saanich. These monster homes are the exclusive playthings of the ultra-rich, getting resold every 5-10 years. The buyers might be foreign, but not evil, and likely love Canada as much as many here do. No harm done.

Wake me up if they start buying up typical Gordon Head SFH.

late30
late30
July 9, 2021 2:11 pm

many of waterfront properties have been brought by immigrant ( now Canadians) from China and HK. Check out Cordova bay and along Sooke and see how many those owners speak Chinese

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 12:57 pm

Why the heck the journalist didn’t ask the obvious question about whether they’re paying the foreign buyers tax and spec tax (as a “secondary residence”) is beyond me.

If they have a Canadian caretaker resident for more than six months in their $12m house , they wouldn’t pay spec tax as they are providing a dwelling for the caretaker. That would be cheaper than paying $240,000 spec tax annually. I expect they know this. Loopholes like this are one reason that some people’s position that the “spec tax is great because it convinces people that homes aren’t vacant” won’t actually stop the discussion about empty homes. Because this home wouldn’t count as vacant if it has a caretaker.
If they’ve paid the 20% foreign buyers tax, that’s $2.4m of BC tax revenue, and more BC tax than most BCers pay in a lifetime. So they can hold their head high if someone bugs them about using the roads and some services here.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-emerging-luxury-housing-market-on-vancouver-island-puts-hidden-gems-on/

“Mr. Wilson recently made a record-setting sale for the Victoria region when he sold an opulent 67-acre waterfront estate for $12-million. The new owner of the 10,700 square-foot house will have space for 15 cars, guests with a separate residence, a caretaker and a boat that can be mechanically moved from boathouse to launch pad at the press of a button.

Introvert
Introvert
July 9, 2021 12:39 pm

A Vancouver-to-Oak Bay cash-outer who’s happy with the move:
comment image

totoro
totoro
July 9, 2021 11:26 am

Denmark is an interesting case study. Similar population to BC but has 540,000 social housing units. BC Housing manages 7,800 units.

Danish SFHs are much smaller on average than those in BC but the Danes seem super focussed on home ownership/quality due to long inclement winters plus cultural values as “For many people, the single-family house becomes a key element in their ’life project’, setting the framework of first family life and then serving as a ’hall of memories’.”

http://boligforskning.dk/sites/default/files/Housing_130907.pdf

Patrick
Patrick
July 9, 2021 10:43 am

People retiring here are almost always paying cash. The younger out of town buyers >20% down

Thanks Marko.

Yes, I’d expect that people moving to a new city by choice are prepared for the housing costs. More so than people growing up here.
For example, many local people here on the forum ask “who can afford this, where is the money coming from?” when they see our sales prices. With 5K more Canadians moving to Victoria per year than are leaving, it looks like part of the answer is “money from Canadians moving here ”.

Peter Gosniak
Peter Gosniak
July 9, 2021 10:19 am

Is this true? Foreign buyers (who can’t travel to Canada) are flocking here virtually and paying the extra 20% tax? “Foreign buyers, particularly Americans from the West Coast, are scooping up waterfront properties”. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-emerging-luxury-housing-market-on-vancouver-island-puts-hidden-gems-on/

Frank
Frank
July 9, 2021 9:55 am

Marlo- People May not mention or be aware of your low covid numbers, but if the island was a covid hotbed, it would probably influence some people to avoid the place. Obviously people move to the island for all the good points it has to offer and that’s why prices are so high and inventory so low.

patriotz
patriotz
July 9, 2021 9:52 am

People in Europe live just fine in condos, here our benchmark is a 2,000 SFH.

Out of curiosity I found these housing statistics for Denmark, which has about the same population as BC in a much smaller space. Over half the population of the country lives in detached houses.

https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/levevilkaar/boligforhold

Marko Juras
July 9, 2021 9:41 am

I love small cars. Some of the most fun I’ve had driving was in a 3 cyl 1000cc manual Chevy Spark in Scotland.
Same with motorbikes. I’ve owned a half dozen in the past but my favourite was a 250cc Ninja.

I have a 4 second 0-100km/h Tesla here and in Europe unless I rent a Model 3 I usually rent something that is 0-100km/h in around 12 seconds and you know what it is just fine. Even the three bangers you can easily cruise at 140 km/h on the highways. Here even with a 4000-cc engine you are stuck at 120 km/h unless you want to be impounded.

James Soper
James Soper
July 9, 2021 9:38 am

What makes you think that? 30k/year pays maintenance and adaptations and extra assistance in home. Property taxes can be deferred. Government pensions will be paid plus whatever other retirement income there is. Helping seniors age in place is less costly in the long run than putting seniors in residential care homes or assisted living facilities.

30k goes a lot farther for you clearly.
The reason I say it is that I’ve seen it a bunch of times. $2 million doesn’t get as much as it used to, but it should still be a pretty big house, and one person in a big house, even if not a senior, usually ends with neglect unless you’re paying people to come in and help. When you’re borrowing money to live that’s usually not the case. They could age much better in place with the appropriate size house.

Marko Juras
July 9, 2021 9:02 am

I see the house on Rockland that is part of a strata just sold for 3.650. That was about a million more than I would have guessed.

That puts your home somewhere between $5 and $6 million?

Marko Juras
July 9, 2021 9:00 am

Not having a car, or having a smaller car, or just driving less has rather less impact than not having a secure place to live. I have a Honda Fit myself and shed no tears for the guzzlers.

My point is people in Europe do with 3 cylinder 1000 cc engines (Civic in Europe is 998cc, here the Fit is 1498cc) and here people drive from point A to point B in pick-up trucks and then complain about gas prices. People in Europe live just fine in condos, here our benchmark is a 2,000 SFH.

Marko Juras
July 9, 2021 8:55 am

People retiring here are almost always paying cash. The younger out of town buyers >20% down. If you bought a condo or home in the GTA in the last 10 years, it has more than doubled as their appreciation has been higher than Victoria. Once you collect that equity you easily have >20% for a place here.

Had another listing of mine sell last night, Winnipeg buyers.

btw, it has nothing to do with our low covid numbers. I’ve never heard anyone ever mention that.

Barrister
Barrister
July 9, 2021 6:50 am

I see the house on Rockland that is part of a strata just sold for 3.650. That was about a million more than I would have guessed.

Frank
Frank
July 9, 2021 4:58 am

Patrick- I would guess that most of the out of town buyers paid cash or took out a small mortgage.

Patrick
Patrick
July 8, 2021 4:22 pm

A Of the $1+ million buyers Calgary x3, Ottawa x2, Toronto x3, Vancouver X2

Interesting. Did all of the out-of-towners buy Victoria core SFH, with substantial (>20%) down payments?

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
July 8, 2021 3:24 pm

Hi Leo (or others), do you know the sold price of 405-838 broughton St? Thanks!

totoro
totoro
July 8, 2021 3:20 pm

except it hasn’t because the house has been neglected for the last decade as it’s one senior living in a $2 million house who is borrowing money just to live.

What makes you think that? 30k/year pays maintenance and adaptations and extra assistance in home. Property taxes can be deferred. Government pensions will be paid plus whatever other retirement income there is. Helping seniors age in place is less costly in the long run than putting seniors in residential care homes or assisted living facilities.

“Throughout Canada, from the research that has been done and the analysis that have been done there is this magic number of $55 a day — that is the cost for people to age in place with certain services.”… when you compare that to the approximate cost of a hospital stay at about $1,000 a day, or even a long-term care home, which Dupuis-Blanchard said averages out to between $100 and $125 a day, staying at home is cheaper.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/seniors-age-home-community-1.5768060

A quick search will assure you that the above is not a minority opinion.

And, like always, you need to do the math in your market and not rely on a guy out of the US for advice on what to do in Victoria where prices and appreciation are higher than average.

Silky
Silky
July 8, 2021 2:46 pm

A Home Equity Line of Credit(Heloc) is a slight misnomer, should be a Property Equity Line of Credit(Peloc) since includes the value of the land not just the house. I guess marketing figured “He-lock” sounded better than “Pee-Lock”.

Patrick
Patrick
July 8, 2021 2:35 pm

while your home has increased in value by $1,257,789.25.
< except it hasn’t because the house has been neglected for the last decade as it’s one senior living in a $2 million house who is borrowing money just to live.

Well, at that point the owner has died, so the heirs will get a little less on the sale. Not a deal breaker.

Patrick
Patrick
July 8, 2021 2:23 pm

Arrange a Heloc before retirement and they would have 1.2 million available to them at 2.95%, the cash and the probity would be provided by a big five bank instead of an internet loan shark with a nice logo.

Stroller,
How does a “before retirement” HELOC work? Once qualified, what conditions are needed to continue to qualify over time (during retirement)? (other than the HELOC balance not exceeding the allowable % of current market value)

Frank
Frank
July 8, 2021 2:21 pm

Here’s another option, rent your house out and move into that nonexistent apartment if that’s what you want. Hire a property manager and landscaping company, get rent and future appreciation. Again, the house still does not come onto the market so that doesn’t solve the problem. What we might not realize is how infrequently a property comes up for sale. Not sure of the stats but many houses stay with the same owner for 30-50 years. I believe I’m the 3rd owner of my 1954 house, and have owned it for 27 years. These things don’t come up for sale that often, so more development could be the only answer, on nonexistent land. I wouldn’t be a fan of having renters on my property while I’m still living there. I definitely would not be interested in a reverse mortgage, just don’t trust them, too much fine print.

Patrick
Patrick
July 8, 2021 2:16 pm

When I come to the age when I no longer can keep the yard up etc. my plan, providing I am still in good physical/mental health, is to rent out the lower level VERY reasonably to someone, maybe a low income “junior” senior, to help out with the yard and other small chores.

Alexandra,
Sounds like a great plan!

Stroller
Stroller
July 8, 2021 1:41 pm

Well maybe we could leave it like this: If you think you have a great idea to pass to someone in their dotage but there is a chance that implementing that idea may ruin their life, make sure the target of your assistance can read and use a calculator.

https://www.businessinsider.com/reverse-mortgage-what-it-is-and-why-its-a-bad-idea-2018-4

A quick search will assure you that the above is not a minority opinion.

James Soper
James Soper
July 8, 2021 1:28 pm

while your home has increased in value by $1,257,789.25.

except it hasn’t because the house has been neglected for the last decade as it’s one senior living in a $2 million house who is borrowing money just to live.

totoro
totoro
July 8, 2021 1:24 pm

Talking a senior into a reverse mortgage at those rates is effectively elder abuse.

You’re assuming seniors are not capable of making informed decisions.

If your choice is to sell or stay and you’d much prefer to stay but don’t have money a reverse mortgage can be a good route despite higher costs of borrowing. Ex. Lets say you have a 2 million dollar house that is paid off and will likely appreciate 5% per year. You borrow $300k on a reverse mortgage at 4.39% and use this money to assist you in staying in your home for the next ten years. At the end of ten years you’ll have accrued $163,142 in interest (which requires no payment until you die or sell but continues to accrue interest), while your home has increased in value by $1,257,789.25.

Like anything, there is risk in this in terms of appreciation and interest rates, but I would be okay with a reverse mortgage if I would otherwise have to move.

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
July 8, 2021 12:53 pm

As I have mentioned before on this blog, all of our couple friends have already “downsized.” They did it around the age of 60 transitioning from large two level homes to 2/3 bedroom ranchers with easy care yards. A couple of single ladies I know, as their husbands have both passed away, one at the age of 52 and the other at 60 have now both purchased townhomes. The ones in the ranchers aren’t ready for apartments yet. ALL of them still spend a fair bit of time doing things for their adult children and older grandchildren. Including taking them to play ball, hockey, swimming, dance lessons, music lessons, camping, doctor appointments, pet grooming, vet appointment, picking them up after school etc. etc. Their adult children much of the time prefer to go to their parents house still for the bar-b-que Sundays. Everyone pitches in. My brother and his wife are one of those couples. The kids, the grandkids and the grandparents share all sorts of tasks according to what they can do. Two of their adult children and families live fairly close. As you know, the youngest boomer turns 57 this year and the oldest 75. There is that group still i.e. the “silent generation” that are hanging in there between the ages of 76 to up over 100 yrs of age. One lady I know is now in her late 90’s, after her husband died 20 years ago, she sold her home and bought a townhome, from there at approximately 90 yrs old, she moved into a nice rental apartment, and just recently she decided to go into seniors accommodation that provides one meal per day and housekeeping once per week. She still has all her “marbles”.

When I come to the age when I no longer can keep the yard up etc. my plan, providing I am still in good physical/mental health, is to rent out the lower level VERY reasonably to someone, maybe a low income “junior” senior, to help out with the yard and other small chores. I would even consider, if I was on my own, sharing the rest of my home with someone who would love it!! So there would be three seniors sharing a spacious home with a lovely garden and patio areas.

Stroller
Stroller
July 8, 2021 12:49 pm

Talking a senior into a reverse mortgage at those rates is effectively elder abuse.

Arrange a Heloc before retirement and they would have 1.2 million available to them at 2.95%, the cash and the probity would be provided by a big five bank instead of an internet loan shark with a nice logo.

totoro
totoro
July 8, 2021 12:36 pm

There does come a time when sleeping in a $2 million dollar house doesn’t make sense.

When is that?

If I’m a senior and want to stay in my home there are a lot of modifications that can be done and a lot of equity to access to do this, maintain, and provide care. The average annual appreciation allows you to spend a very significant sum while protecting a capital-gains tax free inheritance for the children. It is a win for both generations – even more so if you add a ground floor suite or carriage house and have the kids live in the main house.

https://www.ratespy.com/reverse-mortgage-rates-canada

Frank
Frank
July 8, 2021 10:45 am

Leo- I agree that seniors are reluctant to downsize, that’s one reason there is a shortage of inventory. There does come a time when sleeping in a $2 million dollar house doesn’t make sense. It’s called spending your kid’s inheritance. Selling their property would give them more freedom and resources to travel, eat at fine restaurants, drive a newer car, etc.. Having that much money tied up is actually restrictive. Want to enjoy the outdoors? Jump in your Cadillac and go on a short trip, lots of interesting places to visit on the island. Instead of sitting in your yard staring at a fence, that needs restaining .

Patrick
Patrick
July 8, 2021 10:22 am

I doubt that many seniors will downsize whether there is an affordable apartment or not.

There are many seniors apartments/residences in Victoria full of thousands of downsized seniors, with more under construction, so “doubting that many seniors will downsize” sounds like you might be referring to something else.

A single senior in a 5 bedroom home isn’t likely to stay there. The new development at Cordova Bay Plaza will be filled with downsizing seniors, as are existing apartments there and elsewhere (e.g. Sidney). Even moving from a big SFH to a townhouse/small SFH helps.

Downsizing is common among boomers. And it happens early, when the nest empties.

https://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/2018/08/22/downsizing-common-strategy-older-homeowners/673084002/

“Nationwide, 12 percent of the overall home buyers between the ages of 45 and 64 in 2017 were downsizing, according to statistics tracked by the National Association of Realtors. To focus further on baby boomers,46 percent of the home sellers in that group downsized, according to the 2017 Zillow Group Housing Trends Report

patriotz
patriotz
July 8, 2021 10:06 am

The complaining about gas prices on Facebook very much reminds me of the housing crisis

Not having a car, or having a smaller car, or just driving less has rather less impact than not having a secure place to live. I have a Honda Fit myself and shed no tears for the guzzlers.

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:33 am

I find often during showings the tenants are at home and if you are a reasonable relatable individual and respect the fact that it is still their home they open up (without having to engage them) and share a lot of info. This can help you draw some conclusions as to whether there may or may not be problems in them moving out upon receiving notice.

Buyers and agents often go into these homes with a negative attitude….”WHY ARE THEY AT HOME, souldn’t they step out??” and it doesn’t help the situation.

Karise
Karise
July 8, 2021 8:26 am

Thanks Marko. I’m seeing more and more of this situation. I previously wasn’t interested in going this route but feeling I may have little choice going forward.

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:23 am

My real life experience with people looking to downsize.

How much is my all original 1970s home worth? “$1 million”

How much is a brand new water view condo to purchase? “$1 million”

So you mean to tell me I have to trade my 3,000 sq/ft home for a condo and I can’t put $500,000 in my pocket? No thanks.

No one phones and says I would to downsize from an all original 1970s home to an all original 1970s condo.

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:20 am

The sellers of the tenanted property are looking for quick completion and wanting the new buyers to take over the tenants. Certainly not ideal but we are still in a sellers market.

Biggest risk (rare) is tenants don’t move out and you end up at the Tenancy Branch. All you can do is see if the current owners have the move-in condition report, make sure the lawyers transfer the damage deposit, and hope for the best.

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:18 am

The complaining about gas prices on Facebook very much reminds me of the housing crisis and not because I’ve had an electric car for 6 years, but because 95% of people own way too much car in terms of size/engine. Pick-up trucks and SUVS left right and center and people complaining about gas prices, wtf. If everyone drove a 1000 cc Yaris/Fit/etc. I would understand, but when you drive a 300 hp SUV you can’t complain, sorry.

Karise
Karise
July 8, 2021 8:17 am

The sellers of the tenanted property are looking for quick completion and wanting the new buyers to take over the tenants. Certainly not ideal but we are still in a sellers market.
Could this be problematic other than we would be waiting awhile before we can move in.

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:12 am

I’ve seen a huge increase in out of town buyers in my personal business this year, especially over $1 million. I’ve had 10 out of town buyers buy between $1 and $2.3 million this year. I think part of if it because for some reason all my non-referral non-repeat client business is now coming from YouTube, but I am curious to see the VREB Q2 stats for out of towers as well. It feels like there is more than usual.

It isn’t just retires, half have been young families. For example, had a young family cash out of a condo in Vancouver and buy a $1.4 home here.

Of the $1+ million buyers Calgary x3, Ottawa x2, Toronto x3, Vancouver X2

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:03 am

Problem with senior friendly apartments is the location(s) where they would make the most sense are ground zero NIMBYs territory. I am guessing all the towers being built on Johnson Street are not ideal locations for senior apartments.

Marko Juras
July 8, 2021 8:00 am

I’m looking at offering on a property that is being sold tenanted. We would be taking over the property for our principal residence and so would need to give notice to the tenant. The process seems straight forward. Two months notice with one month being free. Has anyone been through this type of situation and had any issues?

Ideally you set it up so the closing date is vacant possession. I usually like to have that day 3-4 days after the tenant is suppose to vacate by. For example, if two months’ notice will take the tenant to end of September then I’ll make the completion/possession October 5th, 2021. If really concerned you can add a clause that you reserve the right to come back through the property 2-3 days before completion to make sure the tenant has moved out and to make sure it hasn’t been trashed (rare).

Remember you also have to provide a letter to the seller, seller cannot issue two months’ notice without a letter from you indicating you will be moving in. This can only be done after the contract is unconditional. Two months’ notice means two months’ notice from the start of the next pay period, not two months’ from when the notice is issued. Also, there are regulations about how far in advance of next pay period the notice needs to be issued for it to be effective.

Patrick
Patrick
July 8, 2021 6:55 am

So the answer might just be constructing high end apartments so seniors have an available alternative. Otherwise, their properties remain off the market for another 10-20 years. Unfortunately, it’s probably seniors who are opposing such developments.

Yes, the answer is “cranes everywhere”… more construction of housing units of all kinds. And that’s a good point that a senior friendly apartment might free up a SFH.

Karise
Karise
July 8, 2021 6:52 am

I’m looking at offering on a property that is being sold tenanted. We would be taking over the property for our principal residence and so would need to give notice to the tenant. The process seems straight forward. Two months notice with one month being free. Has anyone been through this type of situation and had any issues?

Frank
Frank
July 8, 2021 5:29 am

I think one contributing factor creating a shortage of inventory is the lack of comfortable apartments for seniors to move into after selling their house. I’m sure many seniors would love to unlock the million $+ windfall they are sitting on and enjoy the money. Moving into a condo ties up $500,000, and you still have monthly fees and property tax to pay. Seniors get tired of yard work and maintenance, unless you’re energetic enough to do the work yourself, the costs are getting higher every year. So the answer might just be constructing high end apartments so seniors have an available alternative. Otherwise, their properties remain off the market for another 10-20 years. Unfortunately, it’s probably seniors who are opposing such developments. You just can’t win.

Patrick
Patrick
July 7, 2021 9:29 pm

mri/scan times are pathetic!

You can get a MRI in two days in Vancouver if you pay for it (about $1,000). Need your Dr. to fill out the form.
http://www.prioritymri.ca/

QT
QT
July 7, 2021 9:22 pm

QT- Where were you living in1994?

Vancouver

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 8:35 pm

QT- Where were you living in1994? That might have a bearing on your present view of life. Most people living in Victoria today have it pretty good. Houses are just 4 times more expensive.

QT
QT
July 7, 2021 7:16 pm

Moreover, no one’s quality of life has been improved by that additional 2.3 billion people around. Plants and animals haven’t benefited one iota from it, either.

If life is so hard then why did you bother to procreate?

I can’t speak for others, but my life certainly is much better now than 1994, and so as billions of people around the world.

global-poverty-rate-psp2020.png
James Soper
James Soper
July 7, 2021 4:06 pm

Moreover, no one’s quality of life has been improved by that additional 2.3 billion people around. Plants and animals haven’t benefited one iota from it, either.

Thanks for adding to the problem Introvert.

Introvert
Introvert
July 7, 2021 3:09 pm

Ontario engineering firm offers staff $20,000 to help buy first homes in scorching market

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-just-so-overwhelmed-ontario-engineering-firm-offers-staff-20000-to/?ref=premium

Introvert
Introvert
July 7, 2021 3:05 pm

BTW- world population 1994- 5.6 billion, today- 7.9 billion. 40% increase, that’s the problem.

Moreover, no one’s quality of life has been improved by that additional 2.3 billion people around. Plants and animals haven’t benefited one iota from it, either.

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 2:41 pm

BTW- world population 1994- 5.6 billion, today- 7.9 billion. 40% increase, that’s the problem.

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 1:49 pm

When I bought my house in Victoria, in 1994, I flew in from Winnipeg, the people I bought the house from were originally from Brandon, Manitoba and my real estate agent was from Saskatchewan. I think this migration has been going on for decades.

Introvert
Introvert
July 7, 2021 11:30 am

I think Patrick has a point — even if you’ve been following HHV closely (as I do), it hasn’t been abundantly obvious that Victoria is so different from other cities in terms of sheer number of Canadians moving here over the past five years.

Particularly:

Victoria is #1 out 40 biggest cities in Canada for Canadians moving here as % of population, 1.4% of population moves here per year from BC or ROC.

and

Victoria is #2 out of 40 biggest cities in Canada for Canadians moving here in absolute numbers (5,200 per year, vs Ottawa 1st at 6,000 per year) Toronto and Vancouver lose population from more Canadians moving out than of them in.

Patrick
Patrick
July 7, 2021 10:48 am

Patrick: Victoria’s population is growing rapidly because big numbers of Canadians of all ages are moving to Victoria from other provinces and other parts of BC
Leo: Is that a surprise to anyone? That fact was never in doubt

Dunno. I’m always surprised by what people here think.

So let’s see…

Do you (and others in this forum) agree with me that the correct multiple choice answer to this question is E ?

Of the following factors, the biggest increase in housing demand in Victoria in the past 5 years has resulted from:

  • A. Speculators buying up homes as rentals
  • B. Buying second homes and Airbnb rentals
  • C. Money launderers, numbered companies, unexplained wealth parking money in homes here
  • D. Immigrants
  • E. people from other parts of BC and Canada moving to Victoria

… and then, same question but replace “Victoria” with “Vancouver”, that the correct answer is D. Immigrants.

If everybody here knew those correct answers to both those already, I’m impressed. And I’m the one flunking HHV 101.

totoro
totoro
July 7, 2021 10:19 am

It’s OK if it’s your own cohort. Signed, A Boomer.

I guess it depends if the thing you are saying is universally true. If not, and the statement is discriminatory, I’m not aware of a free pass to defamation based on your age.

patriotz
patriotz
July 7, 2021 9:56 am

unacceptable to stereotype any cohort in my opinion,

It’s OK if it’s your own cohort. Signed, A Boomer.

totoro
totoro
July 7, 2021 8:58 am

Unacceptable to stereotype any cohort in my opinion, and name calling adds negative value to this site.

Newishhomeowner
Newishhomeowner
July 7, 2021 8:42 am

Frank – no thanks i dont think ill move back to ontario. Im not a boomer so health care is less important to me. Also dont understand how “move back to ontario” is a proper comment to my post. Guess your boomer brain is showing.

If it is true that boomers are still moving here regardless of the medical situation, it just shows [REMOVED. No insults please – Admin]

late30
late30
July 7, 2021 7:36 am

Private home sales can save thousands – but there’s risk involved: ‘For-sale-by-owner’ transactions allow sellers to make the deal on their own terms by Lawrence, Daina.The Globe and Mail (Online), Toronto: The Globe and Mail. Jul 6, 2021.
~~
There is one simple reason why Sue Amon opted to privately sell her three-bedroom, three-bathroom residence in Yarmouth, N.S.: “The high commissions that real-estate agents charge,” says Ms. Amon, 65, who has lived in the area for 35 years.

Nova Scotia’s agent commissions are generally fixed at around 5 per cent or 6 per cent of the sale price – a fairly standard fee across the country – but for a house her size in a smaller market, Ms. Amon didn’t see the point of those extra costs.

She inquired about negotiating the commission a local real-estate agent would charge and even looked at agents in Ontario with lower fees, but she was told they couldn’t help her with an out-of-province sale.

“I have no interest in having a second property at my age,” explains Ms. Amon, who originally bought it as a home for her mother who has since passed away.

Private sales or for-sale-by-owner (FSBO) in today’s real-estate market are definitely options as technology has made it easier to access potential buyers. But even in a hot market, it’s not the go-to choice for most people. These types of sales tend to happen in smaller, rural areas.

In larger urban centres such as Vancouver or Toronto, which have more active and global real-estate markets, agents are still preferred, especially in multiple-offer situations, which can prove to be complicated if self-managed, experts say.

Ms. Amon is doing the marketing on her own, with pictures and a video she put together herself. She’s definitely getting “more interest from away” – as far away as Alberta and British Columbia.

If a private sale can potentially save sellers tens of thousands of dollars in real-estate fees (depending on the cost of the home) why are FSBO listings not a popular choice?

It comes down to exposure and risk for both sides of the deal, explains Michael Ferreira, founder of Urban Analytics, a company that provides advisory services and data products for the real-estate industry.

“From a buyer’s perspective, they tend to shy away from the FSBO … because if anything goes wrong it’s basically them against the seller,” he says. “They really don’t have much recourse.”

Realtors are also less inclined to take clients to FSBO properties, which limits market exposure. And double-ending a deal – acting as an agent for both the seller and the buyer – is prohibited in some regions.

According to the Real Estate Council of B.C., representing two clients, what’s called dual agency, has been banned since 2018, and it remains the only Canadian province or territory with a total ban. However, each province has its own regulations on the practice.

For sellers, the risk of selling without an agent comes from the complex nature of real-estate deals, particularly in multiple-offer situations, which are occurring in hot markets all over the country, Mr. Ferreira explains. “The [number] of people who have the capacity to manage all of this without angering a whole bunch of people is a fairly small group.”

For these reasons, despite Canadian home sales being way up in 2021, FSBOs haven’t risen in the last eight to 10 months and “if anything it’s been happening less in the recent hot market,” according to Mr. Ferreira. He adds, however, that it’s difficult to track data on private real-estate deals as there’s no major repository for it in Canada. The U.S. National Association of Realtors states that FSBO sales accounted for 8 per cent of home sales in 2020.

For those curious about alternatives to selling through a traditional real-estate agent, there are companies such as PropertyGuys.com, based out of Moncton, N.B., that offer hybrid solutions to the for-sale-by-owner option. They combine some of the tools realtors employ to gain exposure to a bigger market, without the same commissions.

“A lot of Canada’s real-estate market is hyperlocal – aside from the Vancouvers and Torontos, which are more global — and that’s where we really shine,” says Walter Melanson, founder of PropertyGuys.com.

The company has 112 franchise units across Canada and it offers services including online listings, social-media marketing, photography, a sign on the lawn if desired, even connections to lawyers that can help draw up a deal. It offers flat-fee packages that can be as low as $499 (self-service, DIY offerings) up to $5,999 in some areas. The price is dependent on services rendered, not on the listing price of the property.

It has also opened 18 offices across Canada this year, 72 per cent of which are in Ontario, and it has recently broken into markets in Texas, Florida and as far away as South Africa.

“Everyone who comes to us comes from a different perspective and angle,” Mr. Melanson says, “but a lot of them have had a previous experience and something about that experience of the traditional brokerage model made them want to try a platform like [ours].”

Mr. Melanson likens his business to disruptors such as Uber that faced traditional options such as taxis (agents would be the equivalent in the case of real estate), but are able to offer more customized and sometimes cheaper services (whether it be Uber or in this case PropertyGuys.com). “At the end of the day, it’s still a private sale,” Mr. Melanson says. “We just give the tools and strategy to get ahead.”

As for Ms. Amon, she’s happy with the decision to do her deal herself as it “gives her a sense of control.” Since putting her property up for sale about a month ago, she says she’s had eight to nine serious queries and she is confident something will happen soon.

“But the sooner the better,” she adds.

~~
what a joke

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 5:21 am

Patrick- Thank you for backing up what I’ve been saying with some actual numbers ( I’m a bit lazy). This phenomena is not restricted to Victoria. I read that Ladysmith experienced the largest net population gain (almost 4%) in cities over 5000 people in the country. Obviously people are moving to the island in general. The daughter of an old friend of mine moved to Port Hardy and informed him she is never coming back to Manitoba. She seems to be surviving nicely.

Patrick
Patrick
July 7, 2021 4:37 am

Victoria’s population is growing rapidly because big numbers of Canadians of all ages are moving to Victoria from other provinces and other parts of BC. This phenomenon is not seen in many cities, with Victoria and Ottawa accounting for more than 50% of the net migration population gains of Canadian cities. If it weren’t for this, our Victoria population would barely be growing, and our new housing supply would be more than adequate. Note: this is nothing to do with immigration, this is existing Canadians moving to Victoria.

For population, the big story for Victoria is that, consistently over the last 5 years, many more Canadians are moving here than are moving away. We gain 5,200 population per year from this, which is 83% of our total population growth. Mostly moving here from ROC (60% e.g, Alberta, Ontario) but also from other places in BC (40% e.g, Vancouver ).
Amazingly, our population gain from Canadians moving to/from here is higher than Toronto or Vancouver or any other city in Canada (except Ottawa).

Here are the details…

Note: these details are all found in statscan data for population here. This link just shows Victoria , Toronto and Vancouver data for 2015-2019 but you can customize it on the page to show other cities.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv!recreate.action?pid=1710013601&selectedNodeIds=1D70,1D142,1D144,4D1&checkedLevels=1D1,2D1&refPeriods=20150101,20190101&dimensionLayouts=layout3,layout2,layout2,layout2,layout2&vectorDisplay=false

In a typical year (ie average over the last 5 years), Victoria population rises by 6,000

  • 5,200 more Canadians move to Victoria than leave Victoria (we get 2100 BCers and 3100 ROC moving here each year)
  • 2,000 foreigners emigrate to Victoria
  • 3,000 births
  • Minus -3500 deaths
  • minus -700 net emigrants

Total 6,000 population growth per year (5200+2000+3000-3500-700)

  • Victoria is #1 out 40 biggest cities in Canada for Canadians moving here as % of population, 1.4% of population moves here per year from BC or ROC.
  • Victoria is #2 out of 40 biggest cities in Canada for Canadians moving here in absolute numbers (5,200 per year, vs Ottawa 1st at 6,000 per year) Toronto and Vancouver lose population from more Canadians moving out than of them in.
  • For biggest 40 cities in Canada, the net gain from Canadians moving to/from them sums to 21,000 per year. Victoria gets 5,200 25% of this. Ottawa gets 6,000 29%. The rest of the other cities combined get the rest (10,000)

Conclusions re population:
– Vancouver and Toronto population gain is explained by immigration. Toronto and Vancouver actually lose population because more Canadians are moving “out” than “into” these cities.
– Victoria population gain is mainly other Canadians (of all ages) moving here. Only other city in Canada with numbers like that is Ottawa.
Without this migration of Canadians to Victoria, our population growth would be tiny (1,000 people per year), and our Victoria new housing supply (2,000 units per year) would be more than adequate. So the Victoria population growth is from Canadians of all ages moving here .

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 4:31 am

patriotz- I think the 6 month rule applies to how long you can stay out of Canada and still maintain your health care status here. I’m sure highly qualified individuals would be welcome with open arms. I’m curious where one would go in the states- the fire devastated southwest with persistent water shortage ( the dams cannot even generate the electricity they are capable of due to historically low reservoir levels- good luck charging your Tesla and cool your house). Or the southeast that is increasingly being pounded by hurricanes. Neither appeal to me. Not to mention the influx of impoverished Central Americans constantly crossing the border and the scary crime rate. I’m not sure Canadians are aware how heavily armed most Americans are.

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 4:17 am

Newishhomeowner- Why don’t you move back to Ontario?

patriotz
patriotz
July 7, 2021 4:10 am

But you can’t move to the US. You can live in the US < 6 months a year, that's all. Which means you still have to maintain a residence in Canada.

Frank
Frank
July 7, 2021 4:10 am

Ks112- Thousands of retirees end up in Mexico, the pandemic has exposed the inefficiency of their medical system. 9% of infected end up dead, the highest in the world. A rational and informed individual should avoid countries with high infection rates, and they will.

Ks112
Ks112
July 6, 2021 8:51 pm

I don’t think many people are thinking of retiring to Brazil, India, Peru, or Mexico

Come on Frank, how many were planning to before covid? Negligible before and less negligible now? High realestate prices and high Canadian dollar makes the US more attractive than ever because of the geographical distance and similarities in culture.

Newishhomeowner
Newishhomeowner
July 6, 2021 8:02 pm

I find it quite laughable that people really think more 65+ individuals are moving here because we have low covid rates or that van island is still a very desirable place to be a senior! While the weather is nice for now, more and more seniors have realized how crappy health care is here. Good luck getting a doc on the island…..also compared to places like the GTA, specialist times and mri/scan times are pathetic! 7 months to see a dermatologist before covid? Is that a sick joke? I could walk in to one’s office in Vaughan! I really miss my access to health care in Ontario.

I guess most of you on this site have lived here a long time and are used to this crap but for the older generation in ontario, especially where i grew up, this is a deal breaker.

Umm..really?
Umm..really?
July 6, 2021 8:00 pm

Not to get into the great death debate too much here, but BC is going to have accounting for in it’s COVID stats because overall deaths are way up and it’s not just from overdoses. So, it will be interesting to see what the analysis or investigations come up with because either Covid deaths were extremely undercounted or the response to Covid caused the medical system to it ignore people that needed medical care and they died. It would be a terrible irony if the Covid response plan killed more British Columbians than Covid actually did.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/it-s-really-distressing-study-estimates-b-c-s-covid-19-death-toll-could-be-double-what-s-reported-1.5489806

Roughly twice as many British Columbians may have died from COVID-19 than what government is officially reporting as deaths from the disease, according to an in-depth analysis of pandemic fatalities in Canada.

Dad
Dad
July 6, 2021 7:49 pm

Well I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say that the main reason Manitoba experienced more deaths due to COVID-19 is because there were more infections, not because of healthcare.

Frank
Frank
July 6, 2021 7:26 pm

I don’t think many people are thinking of retiring to Brazil, India, Peru, or Mexico after seeing their death rates and lack of medical infrastructure including storages of life saving oxygen and equipment such as ventilators and available hospital beds.

Dad
Dad
July 6, 2021 7:07 pm

“Dad- “Slightly fewer deaths” get your facts straight.”

Ok, they’re straight now, but I still stand by my comment.

Frank
Frank
July 6, 2021 6:30 pm

Dad- “Slightly fewer deaths” get your facts straight. Vancouver Island 870,000 people, couldn’t find the latest deaths, let’s say 50. Manitoba, 1.3 million people, 1150 deaths. That’s only 2300% more, not accounting for population difference. So let’s say 1500% more deaths, doesn’t seem slight to me.

Patrick
Patrick
July 6, 2021 5:03 pm

By the way if you want to use that data set, why not just look at net migration directly?

Yes, that’s an informative dataset. Your chart (below) however compares migrating to victoria for a 15-64 age group (representing a 50 year span), with the retiring age group, which is a much smaller range. That explains much of the difference in the heights of the bars in your chart.

If you compare similar size age ranges, for example 15 years and compare age 35-50, with a likely “retiring to victoria” boomer age range of 55-70, using that same dataset, the totals are similar. The retiring group is about 20% smaller, but it’s close.

Net Provincial migration to Victoria (from BC or Canada) in two age groups .
2015 (“boomers” retiring age 55-70= 995) ( “GenY” age 35-50 = 1320)
2016 (“boomers” retiring age 55-70= 713) (“GenY” age 35-50 = 1008 )
2017 (“boomers” retiring age 55-70= 737) ( “GenY” age 35-50 = 953)
2018 (“boomers” retiring age 55-70= 794) ( “GenY” age 35-50 = 946)
2019 (“boomers” retiring age 55-70= 852) ( “GenY” age 35-50 = 1003)

It looks like we have about 800 net “retirement age boomers” provincial migrants per year coming to Victoria from BC (e.g. Vancouver) and ROC (e.g. Alberta). That represents about 400 households, and likely 300 would buy homes per year, mostly SFH. For comparison, the spec tax found only 300 SFH total in CRD Victoria (that’s not per year, it’s a one time total), and these retiring boomers would be buying about 300 homes per year.

Given that the net construction of SFH in core victoria is close to zero (ie new builds minus tear downs), this extra demand for 400 homes from arriving boomers per year would add significant pressure to the Victoria market. Many of these boomers would have sold a house prior to moving, so have plenty of cash to buy what they usually get, a SFH.comment image

Dad
Dad
July 6, 2021 2:27 pm

“Let me stir the pot further. Vancouver Island’s extremely low covid deaths do not go unnoticed and attracts lots of retired people from across the Prairies and Ontario.”

Call me crazy, but I can’t see too many people uprooting their lives to move half-way across the country because there were slightly fewer deaths during a once in one-hundred year pandemic. If you’re moving here in retirement, you probably made up your mind up long before.

Patrick
Patrick
July 6, 2021 2:23 pm

Less diversity, fewer families, more mansions. Change is inevitable.

Yes, diversity is great. That’s why I didn’t like it when some people here cheered when we used the spec tax to smoke the “Tulip House” near retirement couple out of their long time Oak Bay home, tagging them as “foreign boogeymen” and sending them packing back to the USA https://www.vicnews.com/news/speculation-tax-forces-sale-of-oak-bays-tulip-house/

And what’s the matter with rebuilding Oak Bay “drafty bungalows” into more energy efficient homes? Isn’t that what’s required to save the planet?

patriotz
patriotz
July 6, 2021 2:12 pm

You can keep population static by not building

You left a few words out of that. You can keep population of a small, expensive enclave static by not building. The growth just happens elsewhere in the metro.

patriotz
patriotz
July 6, 2021 2:09 pm

Vancouver Island’s extremely low covid deaths do not go unnoticed

Ontario’s extremely low covid deaths aren’t going unnoticed either. Take out the GTA and they are negligible. And vaccination and the delta variant are going to level the field across the country, island or not.

Introvert
Introvert
July 6, 2021 2:06 pm

You can keep population static by not building, but you won’t preserve the neighbourhood the way it was. Less diversity, fewer families, more mansions.

Doesn’t sound bad at all. Sign me up.

And if I feel the need for more diversity, more families, and fewer mansions I’ll visit Langford until the feeling passes.

Frank
Frank
July 6, 2021 1:51 pm

Let me stir the pot further. Vancouver Island’s extremely low covid deaths do not go unnoticed and attracts lots of retired people from across the Prairies and Ontario. Of course not everyone can afford Island prices, but I assure you many thousands of boomer professionals would have no problem. The average prices reported by many cities may look low in comparison, but every city has areas where houses approach the one million mark or more. Add to that the fact that a lot of successful boomers own a recreational property that has increased greatly in value lately, and Island prices don’t look that intimidating. So expect more of the dreaded boomer generation to show up and overload the B.C. health care system.

Patrick
Patrick
July 6, 2021 1:47 pm

I’ll just repost my excerpt from the Oak Bay OCP.

I thought you liked the spec tax precisely because it would STOP people thinking that a lot of homes are vacant. Instead you post and now repost a comment from the OCP quoting an Oak Bay Resident perpetuating the myth that there are lots of vacant homes.. and you label it “insightful ….

“ Already many houses by the water sit empty as second homes. “I am alone in my house. All the neighboring houses belong to people from elsewhere”.

…oooh. So the bogeymen are everywhere around us, with vacant homes and they are from “elsewhere”….

Facts are that Spec tax data for Oak Bay showed only 44 total vacant homes in oak bay, and 34 had BC resident owners. Out of about 14,000 dwellings. https://www.vicnews.com/news/74-oak-bay-property-owners-paid-693000-in-spec-tax/

Introvert
Introvert
July 6, 2021 1:28 pm

Worked in Oak Bay.

And in West Vancouver.

Patrick
Patrick
July 6, 2021 1:12 pm

Aging does not grow population.

It does in the age 65+ population, which is what I was referring to.

And it’s a much bigger factor going forward (2021-2030) than looking back (2011-16)

From the BC housing panel report, expect Victoria total population to grow by 50K, and the population at age 65+ will grow by 33K. Age 65+ homeownership is highest of any age group. (in Canada it is 79% https://blog.remax.ca/2017-canadian-homeowner-statistics/ and same in the USA. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1036066/homeownership-rate-by-age-usa/ )

Barrister
Barrister
July 6, 2021 1:09 pm

Worked in Oak Bay.

James Soper
James Soper
July 6, 2021 1:03 pm

If you dont build it they wont come and maybe that would be a good thing.

Hasn’t worked in San Fran.

patriotz
patriotz
July 6, 2021 1:00 pm

While that may have been true during 2011-2016, Victoria populations strongest growth is expected to come from age 65+, looking ahead from 2021 to 2030. That reflects aging of existing population and migration.

Aging does not grow population. Net migration does of course.

I’m not surprised by the falling population of seniors in that chart 2016 vs 2011. Retiree migration is greatly influenced by relative cost, and there are only two cities in Canada more expensive than Victoria. And only one of them is not a continent away. Why would this trend reverse going forward if the relative costs don’t change?

Barrister
Barrister
July 6, 2021 1:00 pm

If you dont build it they wont come and maybe that would be a good thing.

Patrick
Patrick
July 6, 2021 12:43 pm

Sure we could correct for deaths by applying an actuarial table to the age groups, but it’s a tiny factor until about age 70.

Deaths… Not a tiny factor..

according to statscan, there were 13K deaths of Victorians age 65+ during 2011-2016,
About 2,600 per year, skewed to the oldest ages.
Adding back the 13K to your chart makes the 65+ population change =+11K which is more than the entire post student age group 25 to 64 on your chart, (which totals 7K). Aging and migration would account for that. The boomers were just starting to get age 65+ during that 2011-2016 period so aging wasn’t a big a factor as it will be going forward.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1710013601

James Soper
James Soper
July 6, 2021 12:41 pm

Perhaps, it has something to do with university and college population.

Really though? Wouldn’t it make more sense for a bunch of kids to have extreme Werner symptoms and just age five times faster than normal?
I think we all know the correct answer here, despite what the charts may show.

QT
QT
July 6, 2021 11:56 am

Similar to Victoria, Saanich population is getting older and older over the years.

https://townfolio.co/bc/saanich/demographics

https://townfolio.co/bc/victoria/demographics

Saanich.png
alexandracdn
alexandracdn
July 6, 2021 11:39 am

Thanks Patrick, lots of great info there.

QT
QT
July 6, 2021 11:30 am

Clearly a lot of 20-24 year olds were born during that 5 year period.

Perhaps, it has something to do with university and college population.

Stat Can – Age characteristics

https://tinyurl.com/6zvrm92y – Saanich
15 to 19 years 6,740
20 to 24 years 9,145
25 to 29 years 6,780

https://tinyurl.com/y96ty6ya – Langford
15 to 19 years 2,015
20 to 24 years 2,075
25 to 29 years 2,410

Dad
Dad
July 6, 2021 11:05 am

“Nice try but that chart doesn’t prove anything concerning migration.”

Uhhh. Well it would suggest to me that more old people died/moved away than moved here. So that doesn’t really seem fit with your narrative.

James Soper
James Soper
July 6, 2021 10:47 am

Leo- You are officially King of the Charts. Unfortunately the chart you sourced had nothing to do with migration. It merely showed changes in population by age groups in general. We all know that old people have a habit of dying, and that is evident in a decline in the elderly population. Nice try but that chart doesn’t prove anything concerning migration.

Clearly a lot of 20-24 year olds were born during that 5 year period.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
July 6, 2021 10:20 am

Anyone knows the sold price of #205-770 Fisgard St ? Thanks.

Frank
Frank
July 6, 2021 9:58 am

Leo- You are officially King of the Charts. Unfortunately the chart you sourced had nothing to do with migration. It merely showed changes in population by age groups in general. We all know that old people have a habit of dying, and that is evident in a decline in the elderly population. Nice try but that chart doesn’t prove anything concerning migration.

GC
GC
July 6, 2021 9:41 am

Maybe actuaries should be doing the projections and not people at city hall. Working construction in the mid 90’s was rough in this town there was hardly any development for ten years and that did not help the housing supply situation. Still strange that the government is stimulating the construction economy when it is red hot, and when it needed a little help in the 90s it was not doing much.

Patrick
Patrick
July 6, 2021 9:40 am

Big assumption. That’s not what the data showed in 2016. Growth came from the younger age groups

While that may have been true during 2011-2016, Victoria populations strongest growth is expected to come from age 65+, looking ahead from 2021 to 2030. That reflects aging of existing population and migration. They’re expecting 25K more people 65+ by 2030, and the next highest rise in age groups is only by 10K (age 25-44). The significance of this for housing is that this age 65+ age group have high SFH homeownership rates.

The BC Housing expert panel says it, so it must be true ….
Page 70 https://engage.gov.bc.ca/app/uploads/sites/588/2021/06/Opening-Doors_BC-Expert-Panel_Final-Report_Jun16.pdf

“By 2030, the Victoria CMA’s population is predicted to approach 440,000 people. The 65+ age group will post the strongest growth rate, and make up 26% of this region’s population by 2030.“

“ Steady growth to 2030 will amount to an additional 20,000 to 23,000 households (resulting in 194,000 households in total by 2030). This translates to approximately 2,000 to 2,300 additional households per year. When applying assumptions about new households making similar housing choices as past generations, roughly three-quarters of new households [75%] will fall into the ownership category. Between now and 2030, and on a yearly basis, 600 to 700 new households would occupy apartments, 500 to 600 would occupy alternate forms of multi-residential housing and 900 to 1,000 would occupy single-family homes.”

Frank
Frank
July 6, 2021 3:28 am

It’s fascinating that Victoria’s population growth started to increase in 2011, exactly when the first baby boomers (1946) turned 65. Everyone knows that Victoria is a prime retirement destination, so what is so surprising that people started migrating there. This should have been anticipated and steps taken to accommodate the influx of retirees.

Marc Tremblay
Marc Tremblay
July 5, 2021 10:39 pm

So, do you know if Langford had better estimates, and that’s why they are approving so many condos, hoping to capitalize on other municipalities’ shortfall?

Marc Tremblay
Marc Tremblay
July 5, 2021 10:30 pm

Interesting article. Thank you.

Is this number correct at 3100, or are there zeros missing?

“… extra 31,00 people…”