How are things holding up?
It’s no secret that the market is very slow out there. Though relatively modest inventory levels are keeping us in balanced market territory as measured by months of inventory, the sales to new list ratio is in buyers market territory (which is why it feels so slow if you’re trying to sell).
However is there any part of the market that is holding up the best? Well if you look at market balance, it’s clear that some areas are weaker than others. As we’ve discussed before, the westshore detached market has been substantially weaker than the core or peninsula detached market for the last several months. Note that December readings for all areas will drop by the end of the month as more sales are reported, but the relative gap is still indicative.
At the same time we know that the market for small condos previously in grandfathered short term rental buildings has frozen up, with nearly 10x as many listings on the market as a year ago. Months of inventory is currently undefined since there hasn’t been a sale in December. I’d say it’s a buyers market, but clearly buyers aren’t reaping the benefits because they have not been able to convince sellers that the market value is substantially under the current list prices.
There’s some activity with Vancouver developer purchases of single family lots as multiplex developments, but how much of that is actually happening? Well beyond a few individual cases I know of, it’s a little hard to really measure. One way is to look for whether Vancouver-based agents are buying in the local market, but there doesn’t seem to be an extraordinary amount of activity there. The number of transactions with Vancouver based agents are at 79 for this year, the same as last year and down from 112 in 2021 (same pattern if we restrict to just single family). If they’re using local agents, it may be visible if that low end core detached market is holding up better than the rest of the market, but again there’s not a lot of evidence that it is. In fact, across a number of areas, pricing is coming in broadly similar, with buyers getting about 2-3% off the last list price, while condos are selling for about assessed value, and houses for about 7% under.
Sales Nov 1 – Dec 18
And though that looks like the single family market has dropped more, part of that is just the difference in relative assessments. Year over year prices are nearly identical for both, with the detached median in the last 4 weeks up 2% from a year ago ($1.1M from $1.08M) while condos are similar (up 1% from $510k to $516k). It’s still all about those rates, and it looks like with similar pressure from higher rates across the board, all segments of the market were put under roughly equal pressure.
However the sentiment on rates has been turning. Not only have bonds been dropping rapidly (down nearly 1% from peak), but even the Bank of Canada is now floating the idea that rates could come down sometime next year. That should bring a few buyers back to the market, and I wouldn’t be surprised if prices even bounced a little with spring optimism (as they often do).
However it’s worth remembering that rates drop because the economy is doing worse. Rising unemployment and souring consumer sentiment will counteract some of the improved affordability that we’ve been seeing. Also with banks putting more money aside to cover anticipated higher losses, they won’t be as keen to pass on savings from lower bonds to consumers. My base forecast remains the same: expect a relatively boring period in the market. It could be a long time before things gets exciting again (and that’s probably a good thing).
Also the weekly numbers
| December 2023 |
Dec
2022
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 39 | 128 | 212 | 320 | |
| New Listings | 39 | 183 | 292 | 361 | |
| Active Listings | 2517 | 2453 | 2333 | 1688 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 100% | 70% | 73% | 89% | |
| Sales YoY Change | — | +2% | +1% | -72% | |
| New Lists YoY Change | — | -1% | +6% | -10% | |
| Inventory YoY Change | +24% | +24% | +25% | +159% | |
| Months of Inventory | 5.3 | ||||
No great moves in market activity, with December shaping up to be nearly identical to a year ago. Don’t read too much into the percent increases or decreases marked in the daily sales chart below. With so few sales and new listings this time of year, it only takes a few here or there to make a big difference to the percentages.
Last December’s 320 sales was in the low end in terms of historical activity, though ahead of the mid 200s we had in 2012 and 2008. I suspect we’ll outperform in January and then roughly follow a similar pattern to last year, but with more inventory keeping the market a little cooler.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2024/01/01/2024-predictions/
#551).
If It were me, I would have funnelled as much USD as possible Into Japan. He Is obviously very good at what he does so I’m sure there would be a way of doing that. Hit the sailboat with both cigar and beer In hand…Then sail the high seas. Japan has no extradition treaties with Canada.
PWC has reviewed 46,000 out of 50,000 transactions on their fund flow analysis and found 0 indication of any bridge loans.
I guess the loans could all be in the last 4000 transactions.
He was funding his lifestyle and re paying original investors 100+ percent returns.
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/car/my-mortgage-auction/assets/mymortgage-163_211223.pdf
#549).
You kinda can’t really help but feel a little envious of this dude. Not trying to piss anyone off. Hopefully no one got stung here at hhv.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/who-is-greg-martel-bc-mortgage-broker-accused-ponzi-scheme-vanished
Viclandlord it depends on which article you read. BC Financial Securities Authority that suspended him found he had misappropriated millions in bridge loan investment funds while PricewaterhouseCoopers can’t find any. The truth is probably both are correct. It’s just BCFSA and PWC are giving an answering two different questions. The business started out legitimate and morphed into a Ponzi where it became more profitable to obtain investors money than to do bridge financing. Later Investors being mislead into believing they were investing in bridge financing but none of the funds distributed. Hence PWC can’t find any.
The houses, the cash, the cars, the charisma and the social media with hundreds of testimonials becoming the source of his legitimacy. Having people think you are a multi millionaire being almost as good as being one. He had a 2.5 million dollar home in Langford but with little to no equity. Lots of bling but no equity.
#547).
Well they have no empathy, I can assure you of that. They follow strict protocols, That’s where she gets her information. The numbers either add up or they don’t. Kind of like the ltv on a heloc. I really can’t believe loans officers are even a thing anymore…I would like to think there would be an algorithm In place for that by now. With docusign, atm’s, pdf’s, cell phones, and the internet…I often wonder why physical banks are even a thing…other than the atm.
I can understand that Max. Economic rents on entire houses as a single tenancy have come down quite a bit. Ask your Aunt, the loans officer, where she gets her information? You might be surprised.
One can rent an entire house in Saanich for around $4,500. A year ago it would have rented in the $5,500 range. The top end of the rental market has come down. The demand for entire houses to rent in Victoria is small. Most are renting between 18 to 20 time gross.
For a 1.1 million dollar home that would be 1,100,000 / 20 /12 = $4,600 per month
I dont follow the incompetent in terms of people buying rental properties? A real estate agent shows you a potential rental property. Whether or not you buy it is your decision and has nothing to do with the RE agent.
If rents and property increase you are a genius and if not that is totally on you.
@whatever
You seem to think that Greg Martel was involved with all this bridge financing to RE investors, you do realize that it was a straight up Ponzi scheme and they are yet to find any evidence of actual bridge loans.
#543).
They already have. My Aunt Is a loan officer with a big bank. Total rental Income of say 2 grand for the suite…That’s $800 or 40% In their eyes. Even renewals are going to be a problem for a lot people banking on rental Income, and you had better be paying taxes on that Income. Who Is left holding the bag If that rental Income disappears? The bank.
If economic rents come down significantly. And that’s a big if. Prospective purchasers will have a difficult time qualifying for a mortgage.
And those with jumbo mortgages will find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place. If you have several rentals and they start to go vacant because the tenants can now find cheaper accommodation then these landlords may find it a challenge to find a tenant at the previous rent. That could lead to a longer lease up period and in the end they would still have to rent at a lower rate. A few may find themselves falling behind in their mortgage payments.
Unlike a mortgage renewal that may be in a year or three from now, the loss of rental income has an immediate impact on property investors. Those with deep pockets will survive. Many people became amateur landlords during Covid with jumbo mortgages. Greg Martel provided “bridge” financing which drew a lot financial investors to provide short term money to these buyers. This enabled amateur property investors to buy properties without sufficient personal income to cover the mortgages. These investors are swimming naked.
Greg Martel could not have done this alone. We might not be able to find him, but there should be lawyers, bankers, real estate agents, brokers, and appraisers that were involved too. Not all of them would have been corrupt, but that would only leave them as being incompetent.
#541).
IMO, If It ain’t broke don’t fix It. I think It would be a better Idea to reduce the rent than to throw any money at It right now. I expect layoffs at a much higher rate than normal this year In the retail and restaurant Industry now that the holidays are over. A much, much higher rate than normal. It has also hit the construction sector. Westhills has slowed SFH builds, My Son, a house framer was laid off on Friday, the entire crew was. My Son got picked up by a siding crew In Westhills so he is good to go tomorrow with the same pay full time position. He’s only 18 and still lives In his bedroom…Just saying.
#539).
IMO, electric vehicles are just a throw away. I really don’t think there will be any classic electric vehicles In any car museums down the road. With that said, I would just want the cheapest one with the best rating no matter where It came from.
It seems like we are starting the new year with an increase in available rentals relative to last year. The rental market is one where there is no historical data system. The best we can do is quote CMHC’s vacancy rate study but by the time the study is published it has already dated. If I had known how important the rental market would become, I would have started years ago keeping track of vacancies and rental rates. Without good current data, calculating a vacancy rate therefore becomes more art than science. My guestimate is that there has been an increase in the number of rentals of about 25% from last year which may put the current vacancy rate slightly less than 2 percent.
That doesn’t sound like a lot, but Victoria is a small real estate market both in sales activity and rentals. Just the City of Surrey is a larger market than all of Greater Victoria. Just adding two or three hundred rentals may therefore have an impact on the local economy as the lease up time gets longer for rentals priced at economic rent levels. Of course if an owner chooses to under price their rentals they will get more inquiries and a shorter lease up period.
When I look at the available data for two-bedroom units within an eight kilometer radius of downtown, there about 165 rentals available at an average rent of $2,634 which is above pre-Covid levels. That average is skewed to the higher end due to a significant number of high price rentals that have views or larger in floor area to that of the typical two-bedroom. If one kicks out the outliers, at both ends, then most two-bedrooms have rental rates in the $2,400 to $3,000 per month range. These tend to be newer suites in age or recent updating. Yet one will still find a few listed in this range that have been looking for a renter for two months.
If you have an older basement suite in an outer area such as Gordon Head that has not been updated then of course the economic rent will in most cases be less than $2,400 per month. Updating an older two-bedroom will increase its economic rent but one has to weigh a potential increase of $500 per month to the cost of a new kitchen, bathroom, floor coverings and painting that could cost in the range of $75,000.
Is the payback worth the cost? For example $75,000/$6,000 per year = 12.5 years which is about the same payback period as installing new windows or solar panels.
What I am NOT saying is that the rental market is in trouble. The rental market may have softened a bit but it is still stable. Is it worth updating an older suite? That’s more of a flip of a coin.
I’m guessing Import duties and globalization is dead
The Chinese EV’s are going to crush the big automakers. That’s how cheap they are.
Countries around the world are importing them and while the USA is trying to fend them off, other countries are welcoming them. that means much fewer sales for Ford etc in other countries.
What percentage of Chinese people can afford one you ask? I don’t know.
Not sure that matters. There is a revolution happening and some people choose not to get on for the ride. (Investing opportunities etc)
Others welcome the change and are profiting from that in many ways.
How much is a Chinese EV? And what percentage of Chinese people can afford one?
“All told, Chinese automakers are expected to have sold about 9.4 million electric vehicles and hybrids last year, an increase from 6.9 million in 2022, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The group said it expected sales in 2024 to rise again, to 11.5 million.”
#534).
You can do whatever you want Dad. Is this place Insured?
The billing scheme is optional. If you don’t opt in, it’s tier one for the first 1,350 kWh. Is it worth paying for a separate meter for the 5 cents per kWh in excess of that amount, when I can put in a sub panel and sub meter myself, with no permits and no electrician? I’m guessing not. Or you could just do what introvert did and charge a percentage of the hydro and not spend any money.
I have a friend who owns a triplex on the Gorge. All legal. She and her family live in one space, one other is tenanted and the third empty since she had to evict the tenants due to an out of control mold issue because they never used heat or ventilation fans or pretty much anything except lights. I was shocked to hear that all three units pay commercial electricity rates because it’s considered a business. Something I never even considered with having suites but I don’t know if that’s typical.
I think it’s a good idea. We charged our basement-suite tenant 1/3 of the Hydro bill.
#530).
If you add another couple, lets say 2 people living In the house, all running through the same meter, this will defiantly bump you into tier 2 billing just based off consumption, This Is exactly why people put in a separate meter. The peak hour premium usage Is optional and If consumed during the peak hours this premium will be added to the consumption.
#529).
I totally agree with you that It Is optional. You either consume the electricity between the hours of 4pm and 9pm…Or you don’t.
https://www.bchydro.com/about/strategies-plans-regulatory/rate-design/current-activities/residential-rate-design.html
BC Hydro’s time-of-use billing doesn’t exist yet and will be optional once it does.
No, that’s not how it works.
#526).
Anything running past the main meter will be paying tier 2 rates, PLUS the premium/surcharge for any usage during the peak hours of 4pm to 9pm.
Correct, you would not be able to distinguish between tier 1 and tier 2 rates with a sub panel. So you could only bill them at tier 1. That would be fine by me.
#523).
Sure, you could charge them for the price per kilowatt, but at the same time, with a sub panel you would just be bumped up Into a higher billing tier due to consumption. This In turn would just make the price per kilowatt higher for you. Do the tenants even understand the 5 cent per kilowatt premium for usage between 4pm and 9pm? That premium wouldn’t be recognized by the sub panel’s meter…meaning It would be you that has to eat that premium. You could possibly make arrangements with the tenants that there Is to be no heat, laundry dryer, hot water, or kitchen stove/range usage during the prime time hours of 4pm to 9pm every day all year long.
I’m not sure about that, but if so, it wouldn’t be that difficult to put the suite on a sub panel with a sub meter. You would then be able to bill the tenant for their usage.
#522). In the 80’s there were In-law suites, I have one. Its impossible to put an In line meter In. When I was young I decided to rent it out. My first tenant was my Uncle. I kicked him out after 6 months because both the hydro and natural gas bills did a moon shot. My second tenant was my Nephew, I also kicked him out after 6 months for the exact same reason. I haven’t talked to either of these tenants ever since.
Now Its just an empty, immaculately clean, freshly painted, 1100 sq/ft space. Being a Landlord Isn’t for everyone. All these people thinking this is just a hay ride, good times, mortgage helper…Its Not.
A leaky toilet tank can be a killer. Check the meter from time to time and see if it is spinning when nothing is running. Adds up to hundreds of dollars in a billing period.
Spend the money, make it legal and do it above board. Scammy and delinquent landlords, deserve scammy and delinquent tenants. It’s a business, treat it as such and keeping everything above board protects all involved.
If your suite is not legal I do not believe you can get a second BC Hydro meter. You can get an energy monitor but I would not include utilities because people do weird things like leave heat on with the windows open when they are not paying the bills.
That would be ideal, but would require permitting and some decent $. Throwing some clamps over a few wires costs $0 and the hardware is probably an order of magnitude lower in cost.
Why not just have the suit properly set up with a seperate meter? What guarantee does the tenant get that the landlord doesn’t abuse their 75% power usage? Will the landlord sign into the agreement that there is a maximum number of people living in the landlords portion of the house to control the hydro cost? The splitting hairs can just get stupid. It’s a being a pro thing….. Have the hydro included or suck it and put in a seperate meter suite. Hgh quality landlords will get high quality tenants; poor quality landlords that piss around will end up with poor quality tenants that piss around.
Why not just pick up something this: https://shop.emporiaenergy.com/products/gen-2-emporia-vue-with-16-sensors-bundle
Ideally there are circuits dedicated to the suite (you can monitor).
What’s the hassle? If the suite was on baseboard heat, they could potentially use a lot of power.
When it’s free, people use a lot.
2024 predictions post tomorrow.
For me it would be nothing to do with the money. I suppose I am cheap by nature but it annoys me to see things wasted whether it is food, clothing, power or money. (probably why my child insisted on leaving a bit of food on the plate). It is way to easy to slip into the habit of just leaving the heat up when you are away on vacation. Having to pay for it will remind some people to be a little more careful. Probably why I think a carbon tax is a far better idea than some sort of rationing.
Have a Happy New Year everyone. A interesting year ahead.
I would worry more about how much water they will consume.
My North Oak Bay (Henderson) is up 3%, land up, building down which is strange since the second bathroom was fully renovated including drywall remediation. I’m sure my property manager had all the permits and inspections done to code. Ladysmith down 1.5%, land higher, building down. I can’t remember last year’s increase but it was substantial. Two properties on my street, completely renovated 1950’s homes similar to mine went for $1.2-1.3 million, Oak Bay prices, in 2022. I’m sure they are underwater by a considerable amount.
#507).
Fair enough.
$1650
Not worth the hassle IMO. How much power are they really gonna use?
Related but offtopic here. We aren’t solving national homelessness here and the conversation just degenerates quickly.
Looking for rental pricing advice for a 500sqft unfurnished basement suite. New soundproofing, paint and carpet. Kitchen and bath are outdated. Located 5 min drive to Uvic. Wanting to ask 25% of hydro on top of rent to encourage accountability. Shared laundry may or may not be included. Thanks!
#503). To some this comment may be considered a housing related Issue, to others perhaps not. Now I understand this Is a very touchy subject. I also understand law enforcement has all but given up. I want to hear your thoughts regarding the homeless problem In the core. I realize budgets are an Issue, while I do I sympathize for these Individuals…They are down right disrespectful and mean. for centuries there has always been the haves from the have not’s. What do we do? We gotta do something, It Is ugly out there and It Is only getting worse by the day as the resources keep getting thinner and thinner.
If we have ever needed a collective agreement…This Is It.
Go walk down Pandora right now. or go through the drive thru at MacDonald’s on Pandora…Its brutal.
I do know there are a lot of vacant rooms In the work camps available right now In Fort Mcmurray.
#502).
Thermal King Glass.
https://thermalkingglass.com/
Whenever any of my windows start to fog up, I just release the pane from the frame and take It down to TKG. They duplicate It, then I re Install It…Its actually really easy to do. No damage to the cladding or the existing window frame.
Question, need a double pane of glass replaced on the third floor any suggestions as to who does this work well?
#500).
I have had them here about 20 years ago regarding my suite that I don’t even rent. I was heavily leveraged, trying to consolidate debt. My bank required an “assignment of rents” In order for them to proceed releasing the funds because at that time I needed the rental Income to qualify…Even though the suite wasn’t even rented. I had to hire an appraiser for the bank to value the suite…BC Assessment somehow found this out. She was nice and didn’t care, she just took a couple of pictures of It and that was that.
#499).
Thanks, The numbers are just personal bookmarks…Just like a bookmark in a book. I look at the comment count, scroll down to my last comment number and continue reading from there. Disregard the numbers.
Or Max, they will continue to trend your home price higher from the last date that it sold or from the typical updated property in the area, and eventually you will disagree with the assessment and complain. Then they will send out an assessor.
Google Earth is an amazing tool to use. I can zoom onto your property and look at the historical photos over the last two decades for the changes made as well as view the front of your home and travel up and down the street. I can check the building permits online in some municipalities or email the building department of the district for up to date information.
Not yet in Victoria, but in Vancouver the assessors have images of the views from the individual condominiums to assess the value of the view. That drone hovering in your back yard might one day be BC Assessment.
#495).
For example, I live In a subdivision that was built out In the mid 80’s. Large houses on lots ranging from 1/4 acre to 1/2 acre. Its about a 5 minute walk to Starlight Stadium. Almost everyone on the road has either done a complete interior gut and rebuild, essentially making it new…Or they have done some very substantial upgrades all with permits. BC assessment will want to check this out.
For just one bathroom, You are right…I am not expecting a visit.
A permit is a red flag for BC assessment. If the permit is substantial then you may get a call from an assessor who will set up an appointment to inspect the interior and exterior of your home. For just one bathroom? That would be more tweaking the effective age in the algorithm at their office. Instead of 25% depreciation it might be 20% depreciation.
Other times an assessor may knock on your door and ask to view the property if they notice changes that have been made to the property from the information they have on file. But the majority of home owners have never had an assessor go through their home. The assessor uses MLS information from the last time the home was listed.
For example, the square footage of your home was taken from the original building plans. If they notice an addition that did not have a permit then they would knock on your door. And if you are not home, then they would walk around the outside, do some measuring and take some pictures and update the file.
The average assessor has a portfolio of some 20,000 properties that need to be assessed each year.
Max, if you are quoting you don’t also need to add the comment number. People aren’t going back to look at the comment seeing as you have the part you are referencing quoted.
#493).
But they can and they do…Especially with renovations and upgrades that have a permit attached to It. If they see value added to a property, they want their cut.
The 90 day median price for houses in the core districts as at the assessment date of July 1, 2023 was $1,299,450. The median as at July 1, 2022 was $1,235,000 or approximately a 0.5 percent increase from the year before.
The change in your personal assessment will differ depending on many factors that influence value such as location, lot size, house size, age/condition, parking, market trends, historical sales of your property, etc.
BC Assessment rarely performs an interior/ exterior inspection and stand alone appraisal on an individual property. Instead they perform a mass appraisal that relies on a complex proprietary algorithm and statistics that compares the physical and locational aspects of your property with other properties. Obviously with over two-million properties in BC it would be impossible to physically inspect every one of them.
Your assessment may be subject to change as the assessment roll is not authenticated until after any appeals are concluded in April. Most home owners do not appeal their assessment unless their is substantial disagreement, as the savings in the actual taxes paid may not be significant.
Generally speaking, it you live in a subdivision of homogenous housing there shouldn’t be a significant difference in what you consider your property’s value and the actual assessed value. Most appeals will be unusual properties with water front, views, acreage, deterioration in condition, etc.
Is the actual assessed value what the property would sell for today? Maybe not, as the assessment is at July 1, 2023 and current market prices in December have changed. You would not be appealing the current market value as of today, but the value what your property was worth on July 1, 2023.
If you disagree with the assessment should you appeal it? Yes, you should. If BC Assessment disagrees with you, then you would present your argument in a public forum in front of a tribunal made up of ordinary people and give a five minute talk. For example I wouldn’t be selected as a member of the PAB tribunal as I am involved professionally with real estate. However Totoro, Introvert and Max could be on the tribunal. The assessor will have five minutes to rebut, and the tribunal will deliberate for about another five minutes. NOTE: the appeal is on the total value of the assessment. You can not appeal just the land value or just the building value.
#491).
I did a bathroom upgrade and my plumber thought It was In my best Interest to obtain a permit since we were relocating the plumbing. The permit process requires the estimated cost. I think that’s the only reason why mine went up slightly.
BC assessment uses permits as a source. Even they can come to your house to view the work and take pictures…Unarmed.
I am very happy to see mine is down 4.6%! Oakland/Fernwood area.
Same here, almost all of the increase assigned to the building ( albeit an 1100 sq ft cottage with few amenities 🙂 )
James Bay SFH up 6.3%
Did I hear Leo suggest that as SFHs become a smaller percentage of overall housing options, their value goes up?
I am happy to say that the April 2023 property appraisal that I based my successful offer on was very accurate: 1% less than BC Assessment’s June value.
Again I thank HHV for assisting me in my move to Victoria.
I’m down 2.4% in Gordon Head. Land value down, building value up.
The fluctuating building value is always funny because I never change the building.
Why does BC Assessment have Saanich homes location as Victoria? Not the case with Esquimalt, Oak Bay,
Langford etc.
To bad that my cited & linked essay by Wolf Street caused so much consternation. You are free to argue his point, but please do not (incorrectly) tell me what my “narrative” is.
I attempted to bring into the conversation an idea that seems to make sense for lowering new home prices, and as an after-thought threw in an observation about local options. Chill.
Up 3.2% on our Fairfield SFH. Land barely budged. Most of the increase assigned to the building.
I have seen places where the building was assessed at $500k (or 8x) more than what it is actually worth.
Cedar Hill house…. Total value down about .75% but underlying movements are odd: building value up 3.6% but land value down 5.5%.
LMAO, when have houses in Royal Bay not have been equipped with ‘plain-jane” basic amenities? Royal Bay is a volume build neighborhood, you actually make less money or even lose money when you build with anything other than “plain-jane” amenities in that spot.
Look you are just trying to introduce some incorrect narrative that builders are building basic houses so they sell in this environment. I am telling you that builders (at least competent ones) build whatever they think will makes the most economic sense and there will always be houses with “plain jane” amenities built regardless of market conditions. The neighborhood dictates the kind of houses that will be built on it far more than market conditions.
Up in oak bay a point
up 5% (North Saanich). I tend to be nosy with these assessments and always check prior houses sold, in-laws etc, and all were down (West Van, Oak Bay, Selkirk).
I did not. Let me help you with your reading skills:
“My “inside contact” tells me that many of the houses popping up in Royal Bay are Plain-Jane with basic amenities.”
I did include an excerpt from an essay by Wolf (linked) mentioning an American trend.
Our Oak Bay assessment is down 6.7%.
Do we have Sales:assessment chart available for Condos and Townhouses ? Curious how others are viewing latest BC Assessment , my thoughts based on sample properties across Victoria compared to previous year assessment :
Condos : -5% to 5%
Townhouses : -3% to 5%
SFH : 1% to 3%
Well done Leo! Two thumbs up to your sale price :assessment chart.
Since our current assessment are based on July 1, 2023 market values, we would get a good estimate of what to expect by looking at the average of the June and July 2023 sales:assessment chart. As you can see, for SFH it shows an average of 101%, meaning that sale prices were 1% higher than previous assessment, which predicts that the next assessment (which we just got) should be +1%
My new assessment went up exactly that 1% and it looks like a couple of SFH were 1% as well. Of course there’s variations, but I’d expect that overall average assessments are going to go up by 1% for SFH, which is as predicted by Leo’s chart.
I had to chime in again because I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before… my in-laws house actually dropped in value in the Braefoot area. Their land value was lowered by $44,000 for an overall drop of over 3%. Other relatives in Swan Lake area had their property go up 7.4%, the increase almost entirely land as well. For all 3 of our houses, the land value represents 80-85% of the value.
My assessment also went up 1% in Saanich.
Dad, about half of my insurance bill was for the earthquake.
#471). I am a heavily insured individual. Life Insurance, disability Insurance, truck Insurance, car Insurance, House Insurance…All bundled up with the same agency that I have been using for 20+ years. I wanted to ditch the earthquake Insurance but I was strongly advised against It from the agent…Stating If I ditch It, I can’t get It back. This is recent, he called early December.
My assessment Is up around 1% as well…Not that I care.
Barrister, I am with TD. And thank you for the info, that’s good to know.
My assessment seems to be up about 1%, how about the rest of you?
Dad, are you insured with TD? If so they have changed their policy where you can get rid of earthquake but you need to provide a specific waiver and acknowledgement they you are refusing earthquake against their advise.
BC Assessments are out!
https://www.bcassessment.ca
Alright everyone that’s a wrap, i can’t waste anymore time seeing Max spew nonsense. Cheers all happy new years!
#464).
You can not get earthquake Insurance on new policies…Would you like that In crayon?
Agreed Dad, Max is making up nonsense
Not cool to make false comments like that
Sounds like fake news. I checked around in November and everyone offered earthquake insurance. It’s actually mandatory with my insurer.
Max you aren’t making any sense. I forgot i need to ignore you when things don’t line up.
#462).
If you are renewing your existing policy that had earthquake coverage you will not be denied.
My deductible Is 15%.
cost going up is one thing, being denied is another.
#460).
My Insurance agent called informing me my rates were going up, I told him I was going with another agency. He said go ahead. I called around and It was more than what I was currently paying. This rate increase Is from the wild fires up north. If I cancelled my current policy I have no earthquake coverage and no other agency would offer It…I stayed with my current policy. This Is my personal Intel.
I think they don’t want to offer me earthquake Insurance at all, but I have been with agency for so long and I just keep renewing…they have to honour It.
A reality check for people exaggerating the speed of the transition from ICE to electric cars. Namely gasoline sales hit at an all-time high in 2023. I’m a long time EV advocate/owner/driver for 10+ years and will continue to be so, but there’s no sense pretending it’s happening faster globally than it actually is. First milestone we need to hit to boast about the “transition” is that global gasoline sales peak and start to fall.. and according to Bloomberg that hasn’t happened yet.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-28/climate-change-the-peak-in-gasoline-demand-turns-out-to-be-a-mirage?embedded-checkout=true
Next
No new policies? Are you making assumptions or do you know new houses that were denied earthquake insurance in RB?
#454).
I’m not even talking earthquakes here. I’m pretty sure earthquake Insurance Is a Grandfathered policy now…No new policies, just renewals of existing policies. The Danbrook has been completely evacuated twice after being fully occupied on both occasions…Its ground was also properly dealt with before the city approved the development.
cc: totoro
Further to the $60K EV battery replacement discussion we had a few days ago:
https://youtu.be/dxtzH9i7so4?si=KLsF-Iy0-6Rjwwbq
What is considered a luxury home is impossible to tell since almost anything with five feet of granite countertop seems to bear the term luxury. Maybe lets see if we can at least agree that Craigdarroch Castle is a luxury home. So how does that 600 sq ft luxury condo compare?
In the event of a massive earthquake, we’ll have more problems than just in royal bay. I’m no expert in the subject but surely the ground had to be properly dealt with before the city approved the massive development. If it was a serious issue, insurers wouldn’t be providing earthquake insurance which they all do to RB
#452).
The houses In Royal Bay are constructed very well, following both the BCBC and NBC protocols. The Integrity of the house structures themselves In my opinion Is not of concern. They might just sink or tip over. While compaction Is a thing …would you build your house on sand? I am very surprised they can even be Insured.
When I say sand, I’m talking granular sand…beach sand.
There’s been and currently is 2 million dollar homes on small lots in royal bay and surrounding area, but i suppose in victoria’s standard that’s not “luxury” homes. what do you guys consider luxury homes, the custom built unique homes? or 5 million plus etc
because you said developers are switching to “plain jane houses” now in order for them to sell. I am telling you that Royal Bay has always been “plain jane houses” because luxury doesn’t work there.
#449).
My Wife has been working for the Provincial Government for over 25 years. She has been working from home since long before the pandemic hit, all you need Is a cell phone and a laptop… which they provide BTW. I don’t even know why those office buildings down town are even a thing. We live In a world of climate change and here we have people strapped into their cars travelling a considerable distance trying to get to the office that they don’t even need or like. Any administrative office work should be done at home. They have apps that monitor your activity while working…get people off the road. I think that Is a no brainer, imo.
The money she saves on fuel and parking, requiring less money for makeup and clothing, and a whole lot less time spent off the clock. All these things make for a much happier Wife. She has conference calls as she Is walking around the lake, I am certain she Is In a much more productive, efficient, and better mood In that environment than being strapped to a chair In an office that Is totally unnecessary. And no…She doesn’t pack a sidearm.
agree, without the commute concerns it’s a no-brainer raising a family in the westshore. Although as a newcomer to the island 10 years ago, i see huge benefits in almost every area. Cordova bay, james bay, fairfield, sax point, north saanich, sidney etc etc
Greater Victoria and within the core are all amazing places to live. We are all so fortunate to be here.
I’ve never lived in a place where i see myself living “forever” until i moved here
How Greater Victoria has changed. At one time it was being within the five mile circle of downtown Victoria that was important and the Westshore was a dog patch. Things have done a 180, as the Westshore has become a wonderful place to raise a family with more amenities than old Victoria offers. Today, most of the Victoria core districts now look like a dog patch.
Unfortunately, most government jobs are still in Victoria so those that are chained to a downtown desk job have to bear the commute. But if you can live and work in the Westshore, my opinion is that you’ll have a better quality of life.
https://www.bcassessment.ca/
They updated early!
Finally something to check out while we wait for Leo’s next post.
#446).
If you have access to a sewer trunk you are required to hookup. This was mandated to distribute the costs to the community as a whole. I hooked up as they were coming down the road to receive the discounted connection fee. All In I paid 6 grand Including the connection fee, decommission of the tank, trenching, Installation of the 4″ pvc pipe, and back fill. Now Its 20 grand just for the connection fee.
#444).
Given the Government “work from home thing” along with the huge employment opportunities available in the West Shore…A lot of people out here don’t even go down town anymore. Why would they?
Mostly a western communities joke…. But a lot of places built there before they were incorporated are on septic. Some places that would really surprise you out there because they appear to be normal subdivisions. The cost to hookup to municipal is prohibitive in some cases out there and many of those systems are at or near end life. Always good to make sure what is below ground before making any offers in those areas (some cases where they are hooked up to municipal, but the old skeptics are still below ground). It’s just a good thing conditional offers and inspections are fashionable again.
Most Victoria folks still view the westshore as it was 20 or 30 years ago, unwilling to discover or embrace its changes
????
#440).
Royal Bay Is a former open pit mine…CA or Construction aggregate. They mined sand out of that mine for decades. The whole thing Is in a earthquake liquefaction zone. I wouldn’t buy anything there.
Langford has a brand new sewer Infrastructure In place and It was mandated everyone hooked up. We don’t just drain it in the yard.
Or, just ignore him: starve a troll of attention and they eventually go where the grass is greener.
(It seems that his agitation has some usually reasonable posters all agitated)
How is that different than “many of the houses popping up in Royal Bay are Plain-Jane ”
(the luxury homes that my “trade contact” works on are fewer and elsewhere.)
As to the main point Wolf raises….If the common home-buyer cannot afford both the land cost and the costs of innumerable pretentious amenities, why wouldn’t builders build less expensive housing?
The way I hear it, Those that don’t live there are horrified & offended, and those that choose to buy there are charmed & delighted to afford a place to raise a family.
Everyone from Ottawa to Victoria is saying that we have to build housing somewhere.
#437)
Well aren’t you nice…Why don’t you go buy a house or something.
If anyone wants their IQ to be reduced, just keep listening to Max’s irrelevant rants
#436). Firearms – Authorization to Carry Restricted Firearms and Certain Handguns (ATC).
There are just two categories of individuals who are allowed an authorization to carry: those who require one because of their occupations and those who need one for the “protection of life.” They need to get an authorization from the chief firearms officer for their province or territory.
Badges!!!!
https://youtu.be/VqomZQMZQCQ?si=TB884GPOSEqUtjBZ
Sorry Max but I couldn’t resist this one.
@Introvert
We’d be in the same spot without massive immigration. Our fertility rate isn’t much better at 1.484 births per woman.
Haven’t been over 1.6 in over 25 years either.
#433).
If the banks will touch them…To me that’s like catching a falling knife.
But they drain into the yard like others in Langford and Colwood…
#432). I think they are contract workers, they come when you are home…like right In the middle of dinner, or on the weekend…with a sidearm that you can see, and a badge that you can see.
You are wrong VicRE, some of the Royal Bay houses have inside toilets.
Your “insider contacts” are feeding you bad information unfortunately because no one builds luxury homes in Royal Bay. Do you want to know why?
A new year show idea though… Tax Cops… Watcha gonna do, when the tax cops come for you….. Fighting the freemen on the land one paper cut at a time. Maybe it could be a musical?
CRA isn’t sending an armed auditor to go look through grandpa’s books. If the audit turned into a criminal investigation, I guess the police could become involved.
But as far as I know, CRA does not have its own law enforcement agency (it does have a criminal investigations unit), and no CRA employee is packing a sidearm.
This is too funny. Seems like the feds have been announcing this housing plan every couple weeks for the few months now…lol..
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/federal-liberals-will-announce-renewed-housing-plan-in-2024-minister-says-1.6704415
Maybe our culture of pretentious instant gratification is beginning to realize that having all the bells & whistles is just too expensive:
“The issue with the frozen market for existing homes isn’t the mortgage rate – it’s the price of the home that people want to buy…
Homebuilders who have to sell their homes and cannot sit out this market have figured this out. They’re building smaller homes with fewer amenities to get prices down, and as their incentive to induce people to buy those smaller and cheaper homes, they’re also buying down mortgage rates which takes the place of other incentives they would normally offer.”
From an American perspective: https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/28/mortgage-rates-dropped-a-lot-but-clearly-not-to-the-magic-level-buyers-strike-continues-issue-is-price/
My “inside contact” tells me that many of the houses popping up in Royal Bay are Plain-Jane with basic amenities.
Ya not sure about that, I suspect they work in tandem with law enforcement for these situations.
Interesting and makes sense. Wasn’t sure how it worked for small businesses that went under or now near closing shop, banks aren’t a charity so their loan process to save a failing business 10-20k would need to make sense from their angle too
Pretty much every big bank is offering a loan program specific to pay back CEBA before January 18th to save the 10 or 20k.
You would have to be financially negligent not to pay the loan back one way or another. Makes way more sense to borrow 40k to pay back 40k versus don’t pay it back and pay interest on 60k.
ok thanks i guess, i don’t work for CRA so i don’t know the specifics of who works in what type of functions. My earlier comment wasn’t toward the most senior divisions of CRA.
Just mostly tied to Max’s view of CRA as heavily armed special forces ready to kick your door down to go thru someone’s “books”.
It’s not the same people auditing Joe blow and Bard Banker vs say the Rogers family and Canadian Tire.
“it’s a fairly low paying public service desk job.”
“I think the union audit positions there go up to 150k+ a year so definitely one of the best paying union jobs in the country with a federal pension.”
Most businesses do have a line of credit, however, any informed person would know that many of them are maxed to the limit. Especially since covid destroyed so many businesses. Now their only alternative is credit card debt. Why are so many scrambling to repay their CEBA loans? If they had magical lines of credit available, they wouldn’t be crying for help. As for individual credit card debt, how many credit cards does the average person carry? I have 2, it’s always good to have a backup.
Business lines of credit are not easy to get, my friend in southern Ontario has the cash to pay off his commercial building where he has run his business for decades. He went to BNS for a line of credit secured by his property, and they gave him such a hard time, he gave up. He does all his business banking at BNS. He was looking for 20% of the value of the property.
#415). For anyone running the Mozilla Fire Fox browser with the Ad block pro plugin and you want to quote you must type the entire tag.
I think the union audit positions there go up to 150k+ a year so definitely one of the best paying union jobs in the country with a federal pension.
#414).
Let sleeping dogs lay…Don’t get me started with maga. Or I’ll plead the fifth.
#412)
I don’t know man, If I was a bank I would seriously be bracing right now…Even on a low leveraged SFH.
What the hell…
With the high value real estate in Vancouver and Victoria, most property owners have been able to consolidate their non mortgage debts into a mortgage at a lower rate than a credit card over a longer amortization period.
#410). Your right…That’s what they do.
#407).
Do you have any experience raising children? The toddler years are by far the best…I have raised two.
Max, well, sigh, yes those pesky CRA audit folks do pack heat. In the form of a pointed finger. And they go ‘pew’ ‘pew’ ‘pew’ ‘pew’
Barrister – somewhat dated, but interesting is the 2019 Financial Capability Survey.
93% of Canadians >18 years old had a credit card. 59% (of the 93%) always paid the bill in full every month. 41% sometimes carried a balance. As a snapshot in time, at the time of the survey 29% of adults had credit card debt
Max, you seem to view CRA like some sort of FBI or special forces swat team. They are on average accounting folks with college diplomas or uni degrees, it’s a fairly low paying public service desk job. They don’t need to carry weapons to do an audit. We are in Canada. It’s largely remote work nowadays anyway. If they did, they would need special training – you really think a CRA staff gets trained to fire weapons after they finish the debits and credits course?
Agreed. Thanks for the discussion.
Thanks Patrick for elaborating.
Seemingly we are both in agreement that the Victoria Now article you posted is wrong in its claim that the average credit card debt of every man woman and child in Victoria is >$12K.
I agree with you that the comparison between cities may still be valid.
Quebec seems to be lower or am I reading it wrong (is Quebec still a province?)
Yes, that’s exact;y what I told you in my post. “ The media ignore all the fine print and just say “average Canadian” instead of “average Canadian with a credit card The comparison between cities is still valid, unless there’s a difference in the number of people that have any credit card to begin with.” The data is per credit card holder.
Anyway, as I said, whatever they’re population subgroup they’re measuring, Victoria has the highest credit card debt, which to the best of my opinion is $12,627 per credit card holder, and the comparison to others cities is valid since it’s the same measurement. If you think that’s wrong, and Victoria has low credit card debt compared to other cities, go right ahead and tell us that. As I’ve said, I think it’s no big deal that we have high credit card debt, because that’s to be expected in an affluent city like Victoria with $1m average household net worth. It makes sense that given high housing costs, that some people are struggling and that shows up on credit cards.
The good news is that current B.C. delinquency rates are close to the lowest of any province (except PEI and Quebec ). And be aware that all of the data you see on this page is per credit-card (or people with other known debts) and it’s also per household. So Caveat, don’t freak out when you see $21,000 as the average BC non-mortgage debt, and start multiplying that by all your family members and declaring this data bogus too. . Note that this is from Equifax, a different source than the other article, and it is credit card debt and other non-mortgage debt, https://www.consumer.equifax.ca/about-equifax/press-releases//-/blog/missed-payments-and-financial-strain-are-increasing-for-many-canadians-credit-card-debt-continues-to-rise
Note that the chart says BC has lowest rate except PEI, but should say except PEI and Quebec.
#401). Okay, I’ll tell you what…I am just going to pretend that the Canada Revenue Agencies Federal Agents don’t carry guns for personal protection. While I am at It, I am also going to pretend That Victoria has very, very low credit card debt.
How’s that?
Next msg
#398).
Are you guys still trying to tell me these Federal agents don’t carry guns?
Patrick there’s a big gap between what you are claiming and what the article you posted (https://www.victorianow.com/watercooler/news/news/Victoria/Victoria_residents_are_up_to_their_eyeballs_in_debt/#fs_132714) says. Can’t both be right.
.
.
Alan Ritchson returns this summer to Amazon Prime as the intrepid book keeper for the CRA. Watch as he metes out his own brand of generally accepted accounting procedures without the use of a gun or an eraser tip. Aaron Eckhart returns as a guest star reprising his Batman role as Two-Books.
Rated HB2 for graphite scenes of open ledgers.
#396). There was a guy on this board years ago, I can’t remember his handle…but he wasn’t a bull and he wasn’t a bear, he was a halibut, meaning prices were going to be flat for years. He was wrong, but this time, In my opinion I think house prices will be flat and stick for a very long time…There will be no fire sales. It will just be one boring day after another boring day on the real estate front for years and years to come.
What in the world? Most businesses have an operating line at a bank/credit union that is cheaper than 20%. Most individuals have that too….. you sir are just spewing b.s. once again.
Lots of independent business owners rely on multiple credit cards to keep their businesses afloat. It’s the easiest and most expensive credit available. The interest payments are welcome tax write offs at the end of the year. Most businesses suffer through slow times during the year and need this form of financing to get through to the good times. Simply a cost of doing business.
Yes, reasonable questions. We’ve been through this before on HHV, with debt reports from places like Equifax. In the fine print of the report, they typically explain that the reports only count people in their database that have credit cards (or mortgages if that’s what they’re measuring). So if you have 2 credit cards and a $0 balance, they count that one person with a $0 balance. But if your wife has no cards, she;’s not counted at all, and she likely doesn’t show up at all. The media ignore all the fine print and just say “average Canadian” instead of “average Canadian with a credit card”. The comparison between cities is still valid, unless there’s a difference in the number of people that have any credit card to begin with.
Good grief. The credit card debt isn’t per person, it’s per person with a credit card. Typically debt stats for credit card holders are “per credit card holder” and not per person. So no, your kids aren’t counted unless they have credit cards. Thats how credit reports work, and they tell you that in the fine print, as I posted below. So Victoria topping the list is the average credit card holder in the city of Victoria having a $12k balance. You can refuse to believe that, but you’ll also need to ignore a different credit card report (equifax) that just came out with an average of $4,119 debt for every Canadian with a credit card. Not a stretch that the highest city (Victoria) has $12k if the average is $4k.
Looking at another credit report gives similar results.
For example, a different report just came out (December 2023) from Equifax with similar results as the one I posted earlier. This report says the average balance is $4,119 in Canada. That seems compatible with the chart I posted where the 10th highest city credit card debt was Barrie $5,029, because all other cities in Canada would be less than that.
https://www.consumer.equifax.ca/about-equifax/press-releases//-/blog/missed-payments-and-financial-strain-are-increasing-for-many-canadians-credit-card-debt-continues-to-rise
“ Equifax: dec. 2023: Population growth continues to be a key contributor in the rise of credit card balances, with over 1.3 million new card holders compared to 12 months ago, but the report indicates that increased financial strain may also be to blame. The average balance of credit card holders [in Canada] rose to $4,119, up from $3,727 in the third quarter of 2022, exceeding the averages seen pre-pandemic. Notably, consumers with credit scores below 620 saw a substantial 13.9 per cent increase in credit card balances this quarter compared to Q3 2022, up 9.4 per cent from pre-pandemic. While average monthly credit card spend per consumer rose by 2.2 per cent compared to 12 months ago, average payment only increased by 1.7 per cent”
Not to harp on the matter, but I suspect that baby boomers dying or entering nursing homes faster than ones retiring might have more of an impact on Victoria than people think. As someone pointed out you dont need a lot of extra homes on the market to move the needle if at the same time there is a drop in retirees. Wonder if anyone has modelled this?
When I goggled credit card debt for Victoria I got a figure of about 12, 874 per capita. No idea how they got that figure. At times our credit cards can have really large balances but they are paid off each month in full. Does that figure represent only balances that are not paid off and carried. And does per capita include people with no credit cards?
I am sure that clearer numbers are available somewhere.
I personally have never heard of a CRA agent being armed. I have no idea.
Inflation and interest rates are the result of record-breaking government spending during the pandemic. So yes, it is different from previous recessions.
Agreed. I don’t find it terribly credible that the average Victoria family of four has $51K of credit card debt. Doubly so when you consider the large number of people that pay their cards in full every month, and on the other end of the spectrum folks that can only get cards with super low limits or can’t qualify at all.
Not how it works here, Max.
#386). maga.
#383). These guys show up at your door and are about to enter your life, wanting to know everything about you and how you live, and you don’t think they will have the means to protect themselves…That would be stupidly hilarious.
Totally, he almost doesn’t seem real. sometimes i feel like i’m talking to a toddler
Several of his comments suggest he confuses what country he lives in. Probably thinks he can “plead the fifth”, too
I have two friends who work for the CRA, i’ll have to ask them this stupidly hilarious question
#377). You guys are completely wrong, they most certainly do. They are vest holstered, yet very visible…They are In fact there, and I’m not confused about anything. If you were an agent about to rattle someones cage, would you not want be armed. This Is an absolute fact…When they knock on your door they come armed.
My Dad Is 70 years old, He Is hardly a threat to anyone.
Triggering responses is his game, and posters like that have a name.
Ignore him and he might go away.
This year so far about 1,250 properties were bought in the City of Victoria out of a total inventory of 53,000 properties. That’s about 2.4 percent. It was much the same for Saanich with 1,260 sales out of a stock of 50,000 properties (2.5%) . Oak Bay had some 240 sales out of stock of 8,170 properties or about 3%
People misjudge the size of the real estate market which gives the illusion that the market is too big to fail. 97.5 percent of the stock of housing at anytime is not for sale. To increase supply all that has to happen is have a couple of percent of that 97.5 to come on the market which would put us firmly into a buyer’s market.
The demographics of an aging populations, government incentives to make it possible for retirees to age in-place, and rising property taxes for those on fixed incomes all could add to the supply, as an older generation begin to downsize into less expensive and more manageable housing. As retirees leave their 2,200 square foot home that is suitable for a larger family of three plus a suite for another two or three and down size to a condo or townhouse that is more suitable for their needs.
That is what is going to solve our housing problems. We have lots of middle income properties in Victoria – the problem is that most of it is not for sale. Overtime I believe this is going to change as property taxes continue to rise as we move away from Development Costs charged to developers and laying more of the tax burden for infrastructure upgrades back onto home owners as was done pre 1980. In real terms property taxes for housing has not kept up to inflation as municipalities put the burden on developers. These DCCs turned into a cash cow for the cities which caused their budgets to bloat and they over staffed their departments. The cities have been spending this cash faster than a drunken sailor in a whore house.
That story about the CRA with guns looking into tax evasion from investments earlier gave me a chuckle. Think he confused a movie scene with real life
Max, CRA agents conducting audits do not carry guns. That is absolute bullshit.
IRS criminal investigators, certainly so.
#376). Interest rates are low, I was paying 9% when I was 25. I was paying prime plus 2. I was young, self employed, I’m sure I was probably paying a higher rate due to the risk for the bank. I had nothing other than big balls…But I made It out.
Max so inflation and interest rates have everything to do with the pandemic , would seem to be a bit of a reach . Past recessions followed a hot economy that fueled inflation , so yes no different.
#374).
Was there a global pandemic bringing the entire global service sector to Its knees with every other downturn?
I think this ones kinda new.
So this is just playing out like every other downturn .
#372).
Exactly, like every other restaurant in town trying to arrange financing to repay their CEBA loans by January 18.
I’m going to go with Max on this one as I am seeing more assignments for debt consolidation as home owners are trying to roll other debts into their mortgage. I’m also seeing an increase in Estate Sales and assignments for a division of assets between partners. No foreclosures / Conduct of Sale as most home owners still have equity that they can tap into.
That’s one of those funny things with the net worth coming from perceived asset values and not actual liquid assets. The clamp down on borrowing primarily tied mortgage lending on the HELOCs are driving more living costs on highly indebted folks towards credit cards. Makes sense that the credit card debt is high in Van and Vic since there is a high real estate cost. We will likely see a disproportionate effect of the loss of the HELOCs combined with the smaller recent asset appreciation and as Leo pointed out (a decline in prices). This likely forcing those folks that overly exposed themselves on borrowing tied to housing to use credit cards and alternative sources of debt to maintain daily activities. People somehow forget that housing is an illiquid asset and some of the ones (over borrowed) that have been using it to maintain lifestyle are about to discover the folly. Maybe we can call it the YOLO effect….
#369).
I wouldn’t worry about It…The end of January Is a long way away.
Yes the sky will fall in January, yes yes
#367). If you don’t think Victoria consumers have a huge debt problem you are completely oblivious.
You are really going to start seeing this by the end of January…But for now Ignorance is bliss.
Data sources are official CMHC, Stats Can. They’re just dividing total debt by the population.
https://www.savvynewcanadians.com/canadas-consumer-debt-surge-per-capita-analysis-by-top-cities/
One point, through they don’t say so explicitly it looks like debt data is from City of Victoria ( not metro) , which might skew towards a younger and higher debt and credit card debt compared to the suburbs. So in absence of the specific data, I’m assuming they correctly used debts and population for the same area (city of Victoria) and didn’t make a mistake there . If you’ve got another data source, please post it and that would clarify it.
In the past, I’ve pointed out that these debt statistics have had bigger problems, all listed in the fine print. For example, they might all come from a debt agency that only tracks people with mortgage debt to begin with, and excludes many people with no debt. The point being, I wouldn’t put too much weight to the absolute values, but the comparisons between cities should be useful.
Remember, greater Victoria average household NET assets (assets minus debts) are still over $1 million per household, so it isn’t surprising or concerning to me that our debt is high. People with high net worth tend to have more debt , but a low ratio of debt:assets
#364). This Is kinda housing related. Last night I went outside to get some air, My motion light kicks In and I notice an orange film on the passenger side of my truck. I proceeded to remove this film with a wet rag…Next thing you know my eyes, nose, and hands were burning. This orange film was bear spray, It took hours for It to dissipate.
These guys then proceeded to head down town sprayed a woman…These guys have been doing this for several weeks like a game. They were apprehended last night. I phoned the police to report my incident…They were overwhelmed with calls describing the exact same thing. If Its orange be careful…It hurts.
A lot of these stats are very misleading.
The details within the data are what’s more important.
#363). Just like the Audi’s at the food bank…You never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.
Sus
#361). This Is exactly why the pubs are full.
Perhaps time to rename it to “Owe Canada”? 🙂
Victoria and Vancouver top the country .. for the dubious distinction of the most consumer debt per person. Mostly (75%) mortgage debt .. no surprise to HHVers, but the one that is a surprise is that Victoria leads the country in credit card debt per person at $12,874.
Canada leads thes world ( G7 countries) in debt per capita. And Victoria /Vancouver leads Canada .
https://www.victorianow.com/watercooler/news/news/Victoria/Victoria_residents_are_up_to_their_eyeballs_in_debt/#fs_132714
“ Victoria residents are up to their eyeballs in debt
These are two top 10 lists that Victoria doesn’t want to be on.
Victoria owns No. 2 on the 2023 list of cities in Canada with the highest consumer debt per capita with a whopping $305,365 owed per person.
And on the list of cities with the largest credit card debt per capita Victoria is No. 1 with $12,874 on cards per person.
Canadian household debt is the highest in the G7, the group of countries that make up the seven most advanced economies in the world (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and European Union) with most of our debt tied to mortgages.“
#359). The only way for me to get this to work Is the following…. blockquote test blockquote.
deleted.
Trekker if you got rid of the quotations it would work.
Max don’t put the #355 – just use the > and that should work. The line should look like this :
And that will work
Doesn’t work for me too 🙂
#355).
It doesn’t work for me, what am I doing wrong…This can’t be that difficult. I am trying to quote on a windows laptop.
#354). ” Judging by the pub last night there seems to be a lot of people who have money to spend”.
https://www.victorianow.com/watercooler/news/news/Victoria/Victoria_residents_are_up_to_their_eyeballs_in_debt/
The sales, while not great, are a lot better than some people feared.
Will end just over last year’s total, maybe 330 or 335. Here’s how that compares to the last 38 years.
I meant to say, what you are responding with… not to.
Max if you want to quote someone please do the following:
1.) copy the text you wish to quote.
2.) in your comment box write: >pasted comment you are quoting
3.) put a space between the comment you are quoting and what you are responding to.
Like so: (with quotations to show you what i mean)
“>You can actually lend money out of your RRSP as long as Its at arms length”
Without the quotations:
Try it out.
#349). No man, they do this all the time. Its not like they are pointing the gun at your head. There was no trouble In paradise. They have been doing random house calls for decades. I will tell you with reasonable certainty Investments are a red flag, There Is a lot of tax avoidance going on. Tax avoidance Is perfectly legal, but It has a way of drawing unwanted heat. At the same time even a simple T-4 has the possibility for a random house call…This Is nothing new.
If you have all your paper work In order, In a reasonably organized fashion, with solid paper proof, this visit could be as little as 15 minuets.
Max, I can tell you with reasonable certainty that the situation you described is not one likely to be faced by run-of-the-mill DIY retail investors. There’s other stuff going on here, trouble in paradise.
#347). You can actually lend money out of your RRSP as long as Its at arms length. You can then take the gains from that loan and tuck It Into your TFSA.
Any idea as to how the Christmas sales season went? Judging by the pub last night there seems to be a lot of people who have money to spend.
#345). I stand corrected… the full principle loan must be paid back In full or financing In place by a bank with all the paper work in order by January 18 for the partial loan forgiveness. Yes, It Is 5% Interest If you are deemed eligible. If you are found to be ineligible…even though you received the emergency loan , you will lose the partial loan forgiveness and be required to repay the entire loan plus 10% Interest. A lot of people took advantage of this emergency loan for the free 20 grand…both the banks and CRA are looking at this very closely.
Max, are the CEBA loans going to be 10% though?
I heard and read 5%
My friend runs a small business and got the 60k loan during covid, as standard, he has to pay back only 40k if he pays back in full by Jan 18th. If he doesn’t, he would owe back the full 60k
He knows a few businesses that won’t be able to pay back the full amount in time , that’d be painful
As we wrap the year, what are @leo and others favourite information sources/blogs that HHV followers would be into?
#342). I believe It was a billion dollars injected Into the Canada revenue agencies budget. They are looking hard…especially CEBA loans and CEWS both targeting small business… 10% Interest on 60k stings. This could very well be the death blow…Or not, perhaps the outcome will be really, really happy.
Drop the ticker here for these inverse retail investor ETFs.
#340). My Dad has a CIBC self directed trading platform. He has barley hedged against inflation after all the associated fee’s Involved. He was rather shocked when the CRA actually showed up to his house and went through all his books, statement after statement…line by line.
They just assumed He owed the better part of a hundred grand without having to prove a thing. The onus was on Him to prove to them otherwise, He ended up chiselling It down with whatever proof they would accept…He still ended up cutting them a cheque for almost 50 grand, They wouldn’t even talk to his accountant. The accountant could be present and advise, But they weren’t there to talk to the account…And they made that very clear.
These were Federal agents and they pack glocks…They also make that very clear. They are as smart as a whip when It comes to numbers. These guys are designed to Intimidate and confuse you.
Urban myth. Simple… If this were true, an inverse ETF shorting stocks popular with retail investors would beat the market. But it doesn’t.
Right, and contrast that with the fact that the average long term “dumb” homeowner in Victoria has become a millionaire. Hopefully your “terrible returns” comment answers your own concern posted that “ A proper analysis requires consideration of the alternative investment.”
“Terrible returns” vs “millionaire over time” with RE ..makes it easy for me to recommend housing for the average investor.
If you disagree, maybe you could let me know how many stock market millionaires you know compared to RE millionaires.
How about starting with yourself, have you made more from RE or stocks/ETFs? I expect for most it’s MUCH higher with RE….
I study the markets for a hobby, don’t know enough about stocks to beat the pros so i learned long ago to keep it simple. well that was my approach anyway, obviously would like to be better but it’s like i wish i bought a bunch of homes in 2020
–
There’s a reason the average retail investor picking stocks has terrible returns
#334). There is a very nice plaza up there if your into Botox, manicures, pedicures, skin peels, laser eye surgery, or just want to have a friendly chat with your financial advisor.
I really wonder why they have not built either a school or a small plaza up on Bear Mountain.
#332). Being a Landlord sucks, I’ve done It twice and I’ll never do It again…Its just not worth It, even at $2200 per month.
When I was young and kind of needed the Income, The bank did what Is called an “assignment of rents” for me. Basically they lend you the money and just assume you are getting rental Income from your suite…Even though they knew I wasn’t. As long as it looked good on paper they didn’t care. I did however have to hire an appraiser to value the suite and make sure the suite was actually there.
if one wasn’t able to find a good investment opportunity over the last 5 years, maybe real estate rental properties isn’t for them…just saying
#328). Cue the hate for the west shore all you want, Its the place to be…It has everything you could possibly want and much, much more. Its the hub of the south Island spokes out into the Vic core, the peninsula, Sooke, up Island. It has a vast trail network, every retail store imaginable, casino, all year round pro stadium, massive bike lane network…brand new infrastructure including sewer, water, roads. The parks out here are something to be seen…Goldstream, Sooke potholes, both Glen and Langford Lakes, east Sooke park… That Is just a very short list, It just goes on and on and on. Work In town? Hit Highway 1 at 6:30AM you’ll be at Yates and Douglas by 6:50AM. If your a transit guy the priority lanes make very short time of the commute…You can even pack your bike on the front of the bus.
Everyone thinks Its the west shore plugging up Highway 1…Its Nanaimo, Cobble hill, Sooke, Its all In the timing…Just like you don’t want to hit ferry traffic.
That’s a great plan alright. How close are the numbers you’re seeing to be able to pull off that “cash flow neutral SFH” condition though? There are HHVers here that have been waiting 5+ years for that, with no end in sight. Some of them have been waiting so long they’ve changed their HHV ID’s in hopes of hiding themselves.
Having the guts to have been ultra long equity risk over the last year would have been impressive. investing your equity from a house into the stock market isn’t for everyone, hard to stomach the potential losses near term. this is why i prefer housing market
Finding a newer SFH with a suite in the westshore that is close to cash flow neutral on a go forward basis is good enough for me with 20-25 year horizon for my kids. I prefer the land value in SFH long term holds. Cue the hate on west shore, more generally just mean SFH over condos is my approach. Hardest part of course is the substantial down payment and qualifying for the mortgage.
Yes, after paying the (now-higher by 25% if not rent controlled ) rent of course. It’ll be interesting to hear from bears who have been killing it and beating the market with their “alternative investments” over the last few years. Most of the favorite stocks mentioned on HHV have underperformed inflation over the last 5 years.
A proper analysis requires consideration of the alternative investment.
Sure. Though for homeowners you could also graph mortgage balance owing in “fixed January 2023 dollars” and that would fall by 15% in addition to the 4% or so that gets paid off per year. Because $500k owing in 2023 is less than $500k owing in 2020 (in 2023 dollars anyway).
That helps answer the question “was I smart to wait?” The bears always get that one wrong.
I’m back in Canada. It’s nice here. People certainly dress differently than where I was in Europe. As for housing, I saw the craziest renovation project happening in Lisbon. The street was too narrow to drive material to the site so men were carrying mortar in buckets. Everything happened very slowly due to certain realities. It’s amazing how prepared we are in this corner of the world to tear things down and build new. It’s also amazing how quickly we can get things done. I don’t even know if that’s possible in other places where buildings are hundreds of years old and all attached.
I’m feeling optimistic and my guess is that the market will slowly creep back up starting in spring.
#322). @ LongTimeObserver, Thing Is… those long irrelevant posts were simply replies to other peoples comments. I try to be as descriptive as I can In order to not have to repeat myself. These comment replies often lead down unexpected paths of discussion where even I don’t know where they are going.
#321). I have just one question, Is there really any money In long term rentals? There are brand new…never lived In 1-2bedroom rentals apartments everywhere sitting vacant. It seems to me price acceleration has stalled big time. What If this Is the top for a long time? How long to be cash flow positive? Is it worth the time and the effort? What If you just can’t sell It for what you paid for It? Even If you could pay It out…would you really want park your money there?
“Doesn’t depend so much on real or nominal, but rather what the alternative investment did in that time.
As for real vs nominal single detached prices.. Real is in Nov 2023 dollars”
Leo, Totally agree.
I guess I was thinking about starting the real median number at the other end of your chart (January 2020), then graphing the difference between the world we all comment on/talk about on this blog (the median nominal line) with the real median line (after inflation, defined by Stats Can).
What might today’s 12:42pm chart look like if we chain it to January 2020 dollars? The real line will be lower than the nominal line by ‘quite a bit’ by now. (Maybe about 15% lower?).
Max, you’ve been friendly – no concerns there. Was more related to long irrelevant posts
#318). @ LongTimeObserver, I’m trying to play nice here. What comment is adding fuel to the fire?
Month to date activity:
Sales: 299 (+6% vs same time last year, but in reality about the same considering how many business days we have left)
New lists: 358 (up 6-10%)
Inventory: 2193 (up 25%)
Max, just go back to housing and ignore the rest. The tribe is restless since there is not much going on with the market during the hollidays.
Max it is posts like that where you just add fuel to the fire
#314). I have my laptop on my kitchen/living room Island running the Mozilla Firefox browser with the alert plug in installed. It dings me when there is any activity on any open tab, after a few dings I scroll down to my last post number and continue reading from there. I can tell how fast and how far down to scroll by the number of comments displayed below the comment box. Numbering my personal comments takes a nanosecond and makes for very quick and easy site navigation. Leo S hooked me up with a link I could bookmark to flash me straight back up to the comment box…It just makes my life much easier, especially when I’m back at work and there Is like another 50 comments to read.
Its just like how my cell phone dings with a new text or email.
When browsing on your phone it is annoying to scroll past a bunch of content that is absolute crap before getting to the stuff one might be interested in. Some posters habitually provide absolutely zero value in their posts hence muting them would enable one to get to the content they are interested in faster.
#312). I apologize to Maggie too.
Stay nice please
#311). I’m not looking for any trouble here. I just don’t understand why an individual would browse a housing related blog, then mute the audience discussing the housing related issues. Even If they disagree, and others stray off topic a little bit…People agree to disagree, humour Is also a thing… Its just part of life. That Is what makes this experience a whole…not just a part.
And I apologize, It was Maggie my comment was directed to. Maggie seems to be very bitter…But I could be very wrong, that was just the vibe I got from her comment, others opinions my be totally different…And that’s great.
You got the wrong guy there champ, I don’t mute anyone, I love calling people out for the b.s. and “non-sense” they spew 😉
Maggie, play nice, save the vitriol for after New years. (or the New Year Moose might club you to pieces with a leg.
#307). @ VicREanalyst, IMHO If you are going to mute the audience then whats the point of even being here? If you can’t take the heat…get out of the kitchen. It was my understanding this was a housing related blog for the discussion of housing related issues…Ranging from buried oil tanks, sewer connections, current market conditions, or getting an idea what the average price per square (100 sq/ft) a qualified roofer is charging these days.
Am I wrong here?
I will admit, discussing chopping the legs off a moose with a hatchet before you strap It to the hood of your electric vehicle would considered by many to be straying off topic…but I was just replying to another comment.
Doesn’t depend so much on real or nominal, but rather what the alternative investment did in that time.
As for real vs nominal single detached prices.. Real is in Nov 2023 dollars.
If you don’t like the home you are currently in or there is an issue which you don’t want to deal with, it could prove to be a prudent decision to offload in a hot market.
Net of all costs, unless one is looking for a lifestyle or location change, seems unlikely to end up a good financial decision selling your principal residence in favor of renting to “timing the market” buying back in cheaper at a later point.
Lot of variables to consider and timing or horizon is crucial, but a bold move especially factoring in the hassle of moving a family.
I’d rather shuffle my investment portfolio to synthetically produce some version of short housing market position. e.g. CIBCs recently created structured notes to bet on cdn housing market for everyday average retail investors.
POS houses in shitty areas of the core on 5000+ lots can be had for <$800k (3145 Donald went for 765k). Decent houses in oak bay still holding strong, 2776 Dufferin just went for 1.76.
Have you checked where the S&P and TSX are currently? It’s a relative easy question to answer, maybe Patrick can even google for you?
LMAO, what a clown show.
Like many here, you’re all “talk” and no “mute”.
Stick to housing.
Those luxury 5th wheels are absolute albatrosses. Probably already depreciated $40k, and then there is the $1,000 monthly pad rent.
Depends how much the market is down I guess, but once you factor in the wasted effort, depreciation, monthly rent, transaction costs to purchase again, it doesn’t seem like a shrewd move.
Some of the old timers on here surely remember Hawk.
Leo S
December 27, 2023 9:23 am
“Around 2 years ago a buddy of mine sold out, bought a fifth wheel and rented a slot at Fort Victoria. He figured he was going to time the market and buy back In during the dip…After 2 years he’s still there and I’m pretty sure he is now priced out for another SFH.”
Prices were higher 2 years ago.
With trepidation, I’d also add that Leo’s ‘Prices were higher 2 years ago’ references ‘nominal prices’. In ‘real’ terms that principal residence money may have earned 10%?risk free (but taxable) during the past 24 months. So, at this point in time, a shrewd/lucky (take your pick) move?
Nevertheless,.. timing the market is not a strategy over the long term, IMHO-HO-HO
I used to sneer at the mute button. Now I’m embarrassed about my complacency.
For some reason this reminded me of HHV participant Kenny G, who used to tout his borrowing-against-his-house-to-buy-stocks financial approach. We haven’t heard from him in a long while. It’s unlikely that interest rates destroyed him, because the stock market has been doing fine, right? What do y’all think?
How much are prices down right about now. Any spread between SFH and condos.
#295). I’m not saying selling out Is a bad thing once you have raised the kids. It could very well be a good thing, my Mothers friend did just that and now spends her days on various cruise ships…she comes back from time to time to see the family, accountant, collect the health care…and she plans on doing this until she dies, and she Is very happy.
Her biggest level of stress is researching her next port destination and planning out what she will do while she Is there.
#293). What I’m saying Is just moving in Itself Is a huge undertaking, especially a family of four that has been planted for over 20 years.
Sure, it’s nearly always a dumb move to time the market by selling your primary residence, just saying prices are down.
#292). The fifth wheel cost $140k, and the pad rental is over a grand per month…But Its brand new and he has his own pop-out with an lcd screen and everything.
Prices were higher 2 years ago.
#290). Around 2 years ago a buddy of mine sold out, bought a fifth wheel and rented a slot at Fort Victoria. He figured he was going to time the market and buy back In during the dip…After 2 years he’s still there and I’m pretty sure he is now priced out for another SFH. He has a Wife that I’m sure Is colder than a witches tit by now.
Sales to list ratio is essentially identical as last year.
Next week they should ramp up pretty quick.
A week….
When do the spring listings start coming on.
#285). I don’t know the firm, no one really wants to talk about It. I was told It Is In fact a structural problem, only because the structure itself sits on inadequate soil conditions. If you look at the new university being constructed next door, they went way down there on the excavation of the hole.
Stew Young actually Lives on my road, even If I were to ask him he wouldn’t talk about It.
Years ago a structural engineer that blew open this thing told me he wondered whether it would even be possible to fix the issue at all, or if it would have to be torn down. I was surprised to see if reoccupied so quickly after those comments, but turns out that wasn’t a proper fix. What’s interesting is that the original engineers lost their licenses to practice, I haven’t heard anything about the independent engineer that re-certified the building when it wasn’t actually safe. Anyone know who that firm is?
#283). Yeah, that’s a shame. It is probably completely safe…Its been fully occupied twice.
They just need to lick their wounds, tear It down, and start over.
I have been told It was the soils engineer…There Is no practical remediation for something like that.
I mean, anything Is possible…But Its pretty heavy, In a very densely populated area.
Langford highrise still empty after second evacuation
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/langford-highrise-still-empty-after-second-evacuation-8029166
#281). I guess Its cheap, and they are pretty responsive and quick at restoring power when It does go down. Whats wrong with Trump? He’s going to maga.
LongTimeObserver, i don’t think Max is trolling, distrubing as it may be I think there is a large segment of the population that thinks like Max, they are most likely to read the National Post and would support Trump if they lived in the US.
Max, I don’t agree with you that hydro is expensive. We live in a 2500 sq foot 1950s home in the core, it is heated with a heat pump and water tank for hot water. Their are 4 of us and it probably averages about $70 to $80 a months for hydro over the whole year, I think we may have some of the cheapest hydro in North America. I don’t have an electris car as the numbers don’t work.
#278). Why are they banning oil and natural gas heating in new builds by 2025? This includes replacement of any heating and hot water systems…net zero emissions by 2050. Everything will be manufactured in non compliant Countries, then somehow shipped back to us with net zero emissions in order to have a somewhat functioning society.
I have absolutely no problem with hydro electricity to heat my house or power my vehicle…Its clean, Its easy to use, Its safe, Its very convenient…Its just very expensive. If this Is the plan, which I have no problem with…They had better start upgrading our infrastructure tomorrow and build a fleet of cargo sailboats for both importing and exporting.
Without this current, extremely cheap method of extracting cobalt out of Congo…Electric vehicles wouldn’t even be a consideration.
I find the electric car situation rather strange. They seem to be good vehicles and really appropriate in many cases. But, a very different conversion is whether the electrical grid can handle all of the houses and cars coming in the next few years. Somehow people transpose a concern over the grid into you are against electric cars or against electrically heated homes.
I read the report posted here by BC Hydro and it raised a number of concerns, which I freely admit may simply come from not really understand all of the terminology or meaning in the report. My main concern is the project of electricity needs if the government implements a major environmental package. It strikes me that the conversion of passenger cars and the mandate that all new homes be electric is that exact type of environmental package referred to in the report and that projection show a major and quickly increasing shortfall. I dont think it is an unreasonable question.
The mandate for houses and cars going forward are related and I just wish there were some straightforward questions.
#276). Its the holidays, I have time on my hands. I am discussing housing related issues on a discussion forum. Don’t worry I go back to work on the 2nd. I am by far not negative, I couldn’t ask for anything more than what I already have.
Max, you either enjoy trolling the internet to find arguments or you’re a perpetual complainer who only looks at the negatives in every situation.
I’m done with this forum until housing discussions come back. happy holidays all.
#274). Dude, I am very happy…In fact I couldn’t be any happier…Wife, kids, household pets. I agree with you though, you are who you surround yourself with.
I’m so glad and appreciative for my friends that look for the positives in every day life.
They share their joy helping others and their success rubs off .
The Eeyore’s of the world tend to attract like minded sour, gloomy people and often miss obvious opportunities.
It is best to avoid those:)
Good luck to everyone who is trying to buy or sell a house in this new year.
I hope your dreams become a reality and you manage to have a good life.
Share your success with others.
Happy New Year.
#272). Well, how do you heat your house? 5 hours Is a long time, now you have to crank the heat to recover from the heat loss which makes absolutely no sense. I have natural gas with two gas fireplaces but I don’t use them since the carbon tax Is insane. Thankfully I have a wood stove.
Yeah ToU rates are the standard around the world. Offering it as an option in BC is long overdue
BC has one of the lowest costs for electricity across the country, but when I moved here I was surprised to see BCHydro had not implemented the “time” based cost schedules like Ontario. Makes sense to shift towards incentivizing families to use hydro “off-peak hours” by providing cheaper rates outside of 4-9pm. It’s a heavily regulated industry so these changes take time and often change very gradually. This new process will likely have tweaks based off how the trial period goes.
Okay, so here’s the deal…No heating your house, charging your electric vehicle, or drying your laundry between the hours of 4PM and 9PM or you will be charged a surcharge premium of +5 cents per KWh All year round every single day. Yeah…this is gonna work.
I can clearly see this biggest transition in a hundred years…becoming the biggest failure in a 100 years.
BC Hydro is advertising this everywhere…Right now. That tells me higher prices for electricity are on the horizon…Big time.
The only true way to reduce our carbon foot print Is for everyone to walk…So you had better live near a city center and get some really good rain gear. Think of the hydrocarbons it takes to even create a bicycle.
Cherry picking that stat is bit of an overplay. Sure there’s an increase in demand for EVs, but come on…. There was about 85 million cars added last and only 3 million of that EVs in 2022. Hyperbole and misrepresentation just makes folks question what might actually be valid points and assertions (tends to be the problem made with the climate and environmental discussion).
#267). This reminds me of the .com bubble…That was the biggest transition in a 100 years too, until It wasn’t.
‘Biggest transition in 100 years’
Globally, a surge in demand for electric vehicles is already underway.
Since 2021, there has been a 240 per cent increase in electric car sales around the world, according to a report this week from the International Energy Agency that highlighted a sharp increase in clean energy.
And yet…we still hear people who do not believe that the transition is happening or even worth the effort.
I find that really funny.
It’s always easy to pick faults with something new. The old farmers used to say “If I stick two of those tractors in the barn, I will not get a baby tractor.”
That’s what I hear when people argue back and forth about EV’s.
#265).While I do not agree with some extraction techniques such as fracking, And I understand a lot of the low lying fruit has already been picked…The planet still has a very large volume of carbon fuel sources. We just need to get better at what we are doing with them.
I also do not agree with some the extraction techniques involved with the electric vehicle battery…Like this:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/01/child-labour-behind-smart-phone-and-electric-car-batteries/
Take your pick.
If the entire world switches 100% to EV for every car on the road, we still would only reduce fossil fuel use from vehicles by 40%. We would achieve the same by improving gas mileage (to use 40% less gas) and so we should also incentivize that behavior, just as we do for EV cars .
Why?
In the US (and the world overall), 60% of electricity generated is from carbon fuel sources (oil, gas, coal). So switching from a gas car to EV reduces the car’s fossil fuel use from 100% to 60%, only a 40% saving. That could be achieved by driving an ICE car that has higher gas mileage.
The point being, for the world in general where 60% of electricity is still from fossil fuels (ie. excluding Canada and Norway) , they should be giving eco-rebates to new ICE cars with great gas mileage. (Using 40% gas then average), because that reduces fossil fuel usage just as much as switching to an EV, in those countries.
Note that this point above doesn’t apply to Canada. Canada (and especially BC) is an exception in the world, where we generate most (80%) electricity from non-carbon sources (hydro).
As the chart shows, the world generates 60% of its electricity from carbon sources (oil, gas, coal) and this number has been constant for at least 40 years.
#263). Happy Boxing day HHV.
All I am saying Is, I’m not going to be buying a new combustion engine vehicle, And I am not going to be buying a new electric vehicle. I am going to drive what i have right now into the ground…And wait it out.
“Everyone in Canada could get an EV and it won’t make a difference”
Some rare candor added to the EV evangelism. I shall consider it a late Christmas present.
I have a some sort of air to water heatpump in my personal place plus a few of my rentals. I had South Island Mechanical come service my units a few weeks ago and even with a multi-unit large discount it was $300 per unit for the “annual service” which I’ve opted to do every 5 years.
Just for context my entire hydro bill (excluding EV charging) for the last twelve months was $286. If I had baseboards I estimate my hydro bill would be $350/year.
No doubt heatpumps are the way to go but I wish the financial cost and environmental impact of a tech coming with his or her van every year was a consideration. Not to mention the replacement cost when it craps out is going to be insane.
When I go into 50 year old houses with baseboards….guess what. On/off still work without any servicing for 50 years.
Btw, had a great tech from South Island Mechanical. Took 20 minutes to explain the system in detail including chiller unit on the rooftop of building. Excellent service.
+1, that is why while I drive a Tesla I continue to invest in oil within my portfolio. Everyone in Canada could get an EV and it won’t make a difference. You think the human race will stop mass consumption anytime soon?
#259). Whatever…You guys win.
I have been on a computer since I was 12 years old, running a Commodore 64, using a modem that you would set your landline phone receiver on to connect to message boards like this…And It came with a whopping 64k of memory with a 5.25″ floppy drive for removable media and storage.
Max was probably a believer computers were only a trend and good ol’ fashion physical labor was the only valuable asset. Doesn’t seem like he wants to even consider learning anything during these discussions. He’d rather drive a gas guzzling pick up truck with the mindset he’s doing great for the environment, oblivious to the emissions he’s producing each year.
#257). Well, you own the site…So I guess that’s that.
It takes zero human exploitation.
As for natural resources, no contest there. Transition away from fossil fuels drastically reduces extraction required
If you don’t like EVs, feel free not to buy one. No need to make up a lot of nonsense along the way
#255). Lets not forget these batteries expire rather quickly and the battery production requires rare earth metals, meaning these metals are very rare and finite. I don’t buy the recycling of these batteries…The time, effort, and the risk involved In doing so would be to say the least not very cost effective.
Petroleum Is abundant, easy to access, and It is not nonsense.
Do you consider the break-even period between EV and ICE vehicles that factors in battery production and emissions produced?
I’ve read as little as two years and as high as 8 years.
#253). Do you have any idea how many natural resources and human exploitation it takes to create one single EV battery? Come on…tell me.
While Max has strong views normally based off incomplete information and tons of biases, here’s a recent article on the topic that is worth a quick read. Shares some of his views
https://fortune.com/2023/10/24/global-oil-demand-peak-2030-iea-predicts-first-time/amp/
Max is right. Definitely take off the legs…to make sure the glands don’t spoil the meat.
Buy that would only be what you would do if it was a “Canadian” moose.
I was talking about a big Scottish Moose! (like the one Robert Burns wrote about.)
#250). And we will continue to see peak demand as we move forward…In turn making petrol cheaper and cheaper, far cheaper than hydro electricity and the batteries required to store that energy. The petrol dollar Is literally on its knees.
There will always be money In petrol…Just not as much, since demand is in the ditch via indoctrination thwarting us away from the traditional fuel that is a way more efficient, portable, non restrictive, tried tested and true energy source.
Cell phone batteries die, laptop batteries die…There are combustion engines from the early 1900’s that will fire up with a simple turn of the ignition. They are not tethered by a cord, limited by range…They just work, and they keep on working.
And didn’t say peak oil (as in availability) I discussed peak demand….Two very different concepts.
#248). Peak oil is a myth, an old Wife’s tale…There is an abundance. Ashes to ashes dust to dust…Even cremation puts you back where you belong. Everything that dies is returned to the planet in the form of hydrocarbons. These hydrocarbons will escape along geological layers, or across them through fractures and fissures in the rock, or directly from an outcrop of oil-bearing rock. These Hydrocarbon escapes happen every second of every day in our oceans alone…We had mine as well harness It, contain It, refine It, use It, sell It, trade It, and capitalize from It.
Even when you take a piss, It will come back as drinking water…Nothing escapes Mother Earth, Outside of space travel.
That was paraphrased…not a google paste.
Fuel prices are tanking because of a global economic downturn that is crushing demand (did you happen to see Maersk layoff 10k because of the manufacturing and shipping downturn). That has nothing to do with EVs. What happens with EVs in Canada and US is irrelevant because we are still a couple decades away from peak oil demand globally. Don’t worry, they can’t mine the materials for, process, manufacture and ship EVs without intensive use of oil and of don’t forget that coking coal. We will be back to over priced gas before too soon because lack of foresight and pandering to eco-zealots has prevented needed infrastructure from being put in place to ensure economic success and a sustainable transition for Canada.
Frank I think rudy restored the Trudeau 300 sl a while back so I’m sure it doesn’t need a resto I’m guessing coachworks might be cleaning it up a bit
#245). Don’t forget to chop all of their legs off with a hatchet…Otherwise their glands will taint all of the meat.
I’m so looking forward to next year, 2024.
Especially the hunting season. I can’t wait to strap a big dead Moose onto my electric car next fall. Hey I;m not stupid. I do know to point the head forward abd have the arse pointing to the back.
Of course I will make sure I cut it’s throat and collect the blood for a hearty black pudding.
Yum Yum.
People have forgotten how to live.
Moose is good of course, but nothiNGS as good as sheep’s brains.
Even Max might agree with me on that.
Oh shite…. I think I might have had one too MANY rum ad egg noggs!
Merry Christmas just the same.
Ironically, J.T. and his brother have recently shipped their daddy’s 1960 Mercedes 300SL roadster to Victoria to undergo a complete restoration. I would estimate the cost to be in the $250,000-500,000 range. I guess he wants to get it done while he can figure out a way for Canadians to pay for it. Joe Biden also enjoys a 1967 Corvette that his daddy gave him for a wedding present. If these were honourable men, they should at least liquidate their own gas guzzlers, as a symbolic gesture.
It’s 1905 for electric vehicles , technology and support will be there so it is the future
#241). Elaborate. I mean come man…Its obvious. Why do you think fuel prices are tanking? It has nothing to do with any wars…Every other car out there is a Tesla…The humming sound makes me feel like I’m In a Blade Runner movie or a Jetsons cartoon. The demand for fuel is less, Its as simple as that.
justifying views with wild predictions for the future is a fun read
#239). What is the benefit of a full electric EV? Don’t tell me Its green, because they are far from It…Even though they build fish ladders on the damns costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to construct. The disposal alone is of serious concern. Even with this 2035 mandate, which will never come to fruition…Combustion engines win hands down.
Fuel prices are tanking…And I think they will continue to tank. This will make combustion engines far more economical for both commuting and transport. It will ultimately be the ones that paid a ton of money, bought the vehicle, charging cable, panel upgrades to support the charging station…etc. These people will all be left hung to dry, while fuel prices are in the basement back down to the 40 cent per litre level… With Hydro bills that will knock you into next month…If you can even afford next month!
I am obviously a big fan of the full electric EV.
I do agree though that much depends on your driving needs. If I drove up to the interior every weekend or even once a month I might concede that a hybrid might be the way to go.
The thing is though that the range is getting so good now and the charging speed is getting super fast, that even driving up to the interior or across Canada would not be a challenge.
If you are considering an electric car, take a look at Robert Llewellyn videos. He has a great show on electric vehicles and is based in England. He recently organized a special event in Vancouver BC.
What is interesting to me is that the people who drive electric cars are the ones who rave about them.
It’s always the ones who don’t own that scoffs from the sidelines.
I’ve driven well over a hundred thousand kilometers with an electric car and I have not paid road taxes or gas or any maintenance.
It’s astonishingly cheap to operate and my 450kl range has never come close to letting me down.
Both Robert Llewellyn and Elon Musk say that the hybrid is not the way to go for most driving needs.
Both are way smarter than me.
Both are smarter than anyone on this forum:)
That seems high. As I posted in the pic (a few posts down) below, in December I’m averaging 6 to 7 kWh per day (for heat and hot water). That number drops to 1.5kWh in the summer (which is entirely hot water). Average year round is a hair under 5kWh/day.
Small energy-efficient home should be equal to, or lower than that.
#236). @ Leo S, Do you have a link I could bookmark to blast me back down to the bottom?
Thank you Caveat, I stand corrected. I find the more that I read about BC Hydro the less clear matters are. I am sure that a lot of it is simply my lack of technical knowledge. For example, BC Hydro makes the claim that Site C will produce enough electricity to power 1,4 million cars. Someone else then points out that while technically true, it is only actually true if the plant is running at absolute maximum capacity (apparently not practical ) and that all the cars are sitting right near the damn. They are saying that you have to factor in transmission loss into the equation. While it all seems interesting, it also seems to a bucket of contradicting opinions.
The neighbours are here, merry Christmas all.
The cost of a hybrid vs gas is normally very modest providing a reasonably quick break-even period in the form of savings on gas with their improved mileage. it was a no brainer to me on a $2k increase to buy a hybrid SUV vs it’s gas equiv, will make that back long before i sell it. It was our “entry” into EV before we bought a fully EV vehicle on our second vehicle.
#233). @ Inspector, Is It 4X4, Can It tow a fifth wheel? Would you trust the range heading up to the Carmanah valley as you look at the worlds largest spruce trees?
Contrary to Derek’s opinion on hybrids (although I agree with many of his other opinions) I find them to occupy a valuable niche. I live in an apartment that has no charging spaces and may not in the near future. So, while I would like to have an electric car at some point it won’t be for a while. Also, I like road trips into the unknown and finding charging stations (ones that work) is not a game I want to play. I also don’t like having to fill up with gas too often so I like the extended range of my hybrid. I typically get 1200 to 1300kms per fill up and that is about half on gas and half on electric (80% driving in town and 20% highway – occasionally towing a small trailer). And lastly it was way cheaper to buy new than a fully electric vehicle – $26,000 plus taxes and shipping (and yes, the 2024 models do cost more now). For those who may want to know it is a 2022 Ford Maverick Hybrid pickup and my average fuel mileage for the last two years is 4.5l per 100km (about 62mpg old school).
#231). Who Is Frank…And what did he do? I have been browsing this blog since HHV himself was the Man. He never did find an affordable house In Victoria.
Factoring in posting volume he’s already most of the way there
Wow, Max is looking to usurp Frank as the poster with the dumbest, factless takes!
Barrister 10 KW is power not energy as patriotz explained below. So two ways to interpret your statement: (1) You are actually talking kilowatt hours (KWh) per day (2) You are talking using energy at the rate of 10KW – which sustained over 24 hours is 240 Kilowatt hours.
BC Hydro says about 23 KWh per day extra (year-round) average for an electrically heated house. So basically like leaving 10 100 W incandescent bulbs on year round. 10 KWh per day year round average could be in the right ballpark for a small energy efficient home.
I realize “googling” isn’t as compelling as just making shit up, but oh well…
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a44022888/electric-car-battery-recycling/
Just went for a walkies down to Ogden point. Looks like a shipment of Hyundais have arrived. Occasionally they get staged here at the cruise ship dock. Looks like 10 are gas and 24 are electric.
#224). @ Sidekick, You open one up and recycle It. Show me a link in Canada recycling Tesla batteries. Do they use the backs of child slave labour to recycle the cobalt as well?
Barrister, here is heat pump usage for both heat and domestic hot water for an efficient 3k square feet family of 4. It hasn’t been very cold this year, so probably on average it would be a bit higher.
Citation please. EV batteries are highly recyclable.
#222). There is no diversification with batteries, they wear out, they are not recyclable, and they end up in the land fill, no matter how many chemicals you throw at It …End of story.
Do you have any Idea how much coal Canada exports to China each year to fuel their power plants? We are not innocent here. I really don’t think combustion engines are the problem.
If you want to be tethered to a charging port…that’s your thing.
I would rather not. And I pay enough in taxes to go the combustion engine route.
That is my choice.
It started with smart meters, now heat pumps, followed by EV’s. Your hydro bills are going to do a moon shot in very short order. They are already advertising this.
Curb weight of a 2024 GMC 2500: 7500#
R1T, 800+ HP, Cost to fill (of the largest battery at step 2): $25
Definitely a fad 😉
I am not sure why anyone would say no to a library at your fingertips? Of course, like anything else, we have to practice critical thinking skills.
Anyway…enough for today.
Merry Christmas everyone. It’s been a joy watching my 3 year old grandson get into the joy of Christmas and Santa etc.
Wish you all the same.
I think real estate will be interesting in this next year ahead. Wish I had a crystal ball.
Our house is heated by a heat pump system, solar and electric base boards.
The house is so well insulated that we find we rarely ever put on the baseboard heaters.
When I say solar…I am referring to the fact that the sun shines through the fourteen foot high wall of mostly glass and it warms the house. It’s remarkable actually.
In the summer the sun is higher and because of the overhang design…. it does not shine into the rooms in the same way. It would be difficult to go back to a regular house design. The huge skies and clouds are like a rolling picture every day and there are amazing sunsets and storms clouds as well.
We are looking at getting solar panels but haven’t decided yet if it is worth it. Hard to beat the low Electricity cost from Hydro, but we are still seriously considering it.
It gives me amazing joy to give the finger to the gas stations as i drive by in my EV and it would also be nice to give the finger to BC Hydro as well:)
#218). Thanks Leo S…That works great, bumps you right back up to the comment box in a flash.
“Diversification of battery chemistries is critical for long-term capacity growth, to better optimize our products for their various use cases and expand our supplier base. This is why nearly half of Tesla vehicles produced in Q1 were equipped with a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, containing no nickel or cobalt. Currently, LFP batteries are used in most of our standard range vehicle products, as well as commercial energy storage applications. ”
Improvements being made every day!
PS: I would never buy a hybrid car myself and would try to talk most people out of it.
Certainly the car dealership will try and sell you a hybrid…. because the maintenance is where they make their money.
They are able to do this for the same reason that it’s the same people who believe that it’s a fantastic deal when they are offered $5,000.00 cash back when they buy their gas guzzling truck.
EV’s are here to stay. Good luck finding a gas station as EV ownership increases.
“I’ll take googling over “insider contacts” any day.”
Absolutely. If someone references their “ insider contacts”, I immediately lose any interest in hearing the rest of the convo. As rookie as you can be.
They imported a lot of energy this year. Good thing Site C is coming online. Also it’s easy to add renewables into our grid so I’m not concerned about energy. Solar is dirt cheap these days
https://in-sights.ca/2023/09/04/bc-hydros-credibility-gap/
I’ll take googling over “insider contacts” any day.
“Max, my son has the Rivian RT1”
Yowza! Almost 7,000#. What a road crusher. Makes the Tesla look like a toy.
No, but you can bookmark this link, it will always bring you to the latest article comment section. https://househuntvictoria.ca/latest/#comments
Plug-in hybrids with at least 80 km of electric range qualify as zero emissions vehicles. Every single truck will offer that within a few years.
Here’s one coming out in two years with 200 km of electric range and unlimited gas range after that. Total non-issue. Gas vehicles can still be sold until 2035 and will last 20 years after that. You will be long dead before there’s no more gas vehicles to be found.
This mandate will not survive the next federal government and it makes absolutely no difference to what people will buy. Makes zero sense to buy a new gas car today IMO but for those who disagree it will make zero sense for them to buy a new gas car in 2035 as well.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a45734742/2025-ram-1500-ramcharger-revealed/
#209).@ Leo S, Is there a hot key to bring you back up to the comment box area?
Max, my son has the Rivian RT1. It’s a pretty nice truck and the range is over 500 km. Lots of power.
#207). I hunt, I fish, and I work…I drive a lot. I don’t think an EV would be a very good fit for me.
Strapping a deer to the hood of my Tesla, wondering If I have enough range to make it back home Is not exactly my idea of a good time.
What about campers, fifth wheels, boilers…etc. EV’s just don’t offer the payload. I don’t think this EV revolution has any legs other than short range commuter vehicles. It would take another 3 site C damns to even make it a thing, especially with all the heat pumps they are dishing out.
This is just another Government f#ck up that will need to be absorbed by the tax payer just like the fast ferries and the photo radar vans…remember them?
Not to mention…have you seen the child slave labour It takes to mine the cobalt and other rare earth metals to create these finite batteries. If you think you are going green, you had better think again.
#206). I drive a GMC 2500 4X4 Pickup Truck. It costs me $100 per week to fuel and is meticulously maintained. With the high performance Corvette Vortec engine and the payload the truck offers…I find that to be cheap, The truck Itself is paid for. I don’t want to worry about range, a full tank is a full tank.
Caveat, 10,000 watts I believe is 10KW and I did say per day. I believe the 42 figure is for the average of all houses and includes all lights and appliances as well as heating. The 10KW is for heating of an energy efficient small home.
That does not sound right. If a house required 10000 watts of power all day then your energy usage would be 24 hours times 10 kilowatts = 240 KWh.
Bc Hydro says that the average electrically heated SFH uses about 42 KWh per day, so roughly 82% less than stated.
Merry Housing Analysis Christmas everyone
Merry Christmas housing geeks! May your housing be warm, comfortable and affordable.
Merry Christmas everyone!
Seems like that’s the same point I made below when I said it’s an “feature not a bug” that the feds have the flexibility to adjust the temp foreigners workforce with ease during a recession.
As for the supply/demand issues, as I mentioned I’m not expecting any drop in the foreign student numbers to BC resulting from actions by the minister, since I expect it mainly to affect schools out east. Time will tell if I’m right on that.
Thanks for the discussion and Merry Christmas to all!
Thank you, I will read that in the next few days. Merry Christmas.
Yes. If you’re interested in how they’ve accounted for that you can read the IRP
https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/corporate/regulatory-planning-documents/integrated-resource-plans/current-plan/integrated-resource-plan-2021.pdf
I meant 10,000 watts per day. Not kilowatts.
I lived in the Middle East for some time and foreigners like myself were a cash cow for the national grid. One particular August my home electricity bill was $2600 but when I filled my car gas was 42 cents a litre. I suspect their EV uptake is quite low there.
I got the decimal in the wrong place, the point being that electrifying all new houses and all cars is going to put a strain on the system and I wonder if we have really accounted for that. Not being an electrical engineer I have no expertise but but I was listening to one on the radio that was saying that the strain on the electrical resources is far more concerning than the politicians realize. I am wondering if he was over reacting or if it is true.
Lot of great googlers out there
No, he’s off by an order of magnitude. It’s more like 7.2 kw.
https://www.energysage.com/electricity/house-watts/how-many-watts-does-an-electric-car-charger-use/
I’m assuming he’s addressing peak usage and not total consumption, since he’s referencing a unit of energy.
Watts are a measure of power, not charge. Charge = current x time, e.g. an ampere-hour (generally used for batteries). How many ampere-hours does a fully charged EV battery typically have? And energy = voltage x charge. And power = energy / time.
Sorry for the physics lesson but I couldn’t stay silent. 🙂
P.S.: Merry Christmas!
Agreed, think Barrister meant 10,000 kw per YEAR but his single EV charge use of 75-100 was accurate
I believe you’ve got the decimal point in the wrong place, Barrister.
10,000 kilowatts is a huge amount of power. Even 10 kilowatts is a lot.
Bear in mind that to charge a car is about 75 to 100 kw to charge it fully. To heat a small house or two bedroom condo is 10,000Kw or more per day if it is a energy efficient build (that does not include use of appliances, just heating). We are now mandating all new houses in BC are electric heated. Realistically, accounting for transmission loss and actually running capacity, site C will provide enough power for about 900,000 cars.
Toyota Corolla is only 2,955 lbs, so there are lighter options out there. But yes, I see weights have trended upwards these days.
You are why we can’t have nice roads!
As all new builds are going to be electrically heated I think you will see the grid load start to really shift in winter. As there is substantially more load on the grid and the need to upgrade you will see a substantial rise in the cost of electricity in the coming decade.
I find myself in agreement with the Grand Mut(t)erer. The price difference is half at around 5.5%.
The price is fair when looking at the gross income on a long term lease basis
Rent is 592 square feet at $4.25 per square foot = $2,500 (rounded)
$2,500 per month X 12 months x 18.5 GRM = $555,000
The difference due to the ban, in this example, amounts to about $33,000 or one installed EV battery.
#185). Merry Christmas HHV.
It’s still north of $900/sqft, that building should not be commanding that price. That sale really sucks for this seller though: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26261418/509-517-fisgard-st-victoria-downtown
I don’t think they will get north of $600k.
That’s just the price diff. You don’t think a top floor unit would get a premium?
2 floors up in a 5 story building should be considerably better no?
Well not really. Half of that 13% is the market drop on the whole since that last sale.
If you use more power during peak hours than overnight it doesn’t make sense. Can figure that out from the data export of your usage but that’s why I’m writing the web app to make this simple.
There isn’t really a need to do laundry after 11PM. If you can avoid running the dryer from 4-9Pm that is the biggest thing. Wish my dryer had a delay start like the dishwasher though. Maybe new ones have this.
Because the entire point is trying to reduce load at peak times which drives infrastructure upgrades.
See my usage profile below. Peak grid load for BC hydro usually comes on winter evenings, and our house is no exception.
That time of use billing will be a little tricky to figure out, and I’m not sure if it will be beneficial for us as they ADD a 5 cent surcharge between 4-9pm. Running the dishwasher at night is a no-brainer, we already do that, but trying to do laundry after 11pm, I mean, it’s not like I’m going to wake up at 12:30am to switch the laundry to the dryer, etc. Also, we would now be paying more to use our oven and stove for dinner. Why couldn’t they just offer the discount without jacking up the price between 4-9?
That’s practical. 10% is nothing, just a few mins at the supercharger in the morning to make that up.
Putting together a little web app to determine if TOU will save you money. Will post it here when it’s ready for testing.
Last sale was $635k for 573sqft 2 floors lower down. 13% less for a slightly better unit is about in line with my estimate of the STR premium
Important to note that time-of-use billing is optional (for now):
https://www.cheknews.ca/bc-hydro-gets-greenlight-to-launch-new-time-of-day-payment-plan-1182295/
Don’t think you need to be plugged in. Teslas have a camp mode that allows for temperature regulation, air flow and music for 9 hours on about 10% of the charge. Way better than ICE for car camping!
https://fossbytes.com/guy-slept-2021-tesla-model-3-8c-check-battery-efficiency/
Merry Christmas to everyone and your families. I think we might have an interesting year ahead.
Correct, and they are talking about the whole country, not just Canada’s 3rd most expensive market.
I just saw last week where Tesla => housing… I was waiting in the parking lot to pick up my son at his job (restaurant) and there was an older man standing next to his Tesla having a smoke. Once he was done he grabbed his skip the dishes bag and went in the restaurant. No big deal, lots of EV drivers moonlight as Skip/DD. When he came back out he popped his trunk and I saw a full double mattress with sheets and a pile of clothes to the side. I mean, I guess living in your Tesla can be better than living in an ICE car if you get free supercharging. Made me wonder if you could actually park at the underground parkade in Uptown where they have those superchargers and leave your car plugged in, providing heat while you sleep on your mattress in the back.
I think the 4% is an average of everyone. There’s lots of people who bought their homes earlier, have had mortgages for longer paying then down further. They would average down the people that bought at the peak and have ginormous payments.
And to chime in on the EV debate, BC is moving to time-of-use billing. This means prices for charging an average EV with a 70kWh battery (from zero to full, at home) will be ~$3.50.
We’re a single-car household with an EV. Just drove up island with 6 ppl, a small pet, ski gear, presents etc. Trailer in tow (with 2 cargo boxes). There are some great EVs out there.
4%? I’m sure I’m reading this wrong, but our payments went up by thousands a month. An extra 30k of after-tax debt-servicing cost is going to be a heck of a lot more than 4% for most people.
“How our car insurance is so cheap with what vehicles cost to fix I have no idea.”
That’s because the new ICBC no-fault product for bodily injury is not really insurance for injuries so you are only really getting and paying for coverage for vehicle damage. You can’t sue for injuries, you can’t get pain or suffering compensation, it’s virtually impossible to get legal representation and you get hardly anything at all except some physio/rehab/weekly temporary wage loss which can be cut off very easily.
First sale at the Union since the STR ban today. $555,000 for a 592 sq/ft one bedroom (interior bedroom). I am surprised we didn’t see more desperation from sellers in this market segment on the whole.
+1, we are just not set up and will never be able to build quickly.
3/Y are >96% of the sales and the old porky Teslas (X/S) are less than 4% of sales.
Model 3; 3,648 to 4,250 lbs
3 Series; 3,582 to 4,138 lbs
Audi A4; 3,638 to 3,704 lbs
Model Y; 3,920 to 4,416 lb
BMW X3: 4,079 to 4,392 lbs
Audi Q5; 4,045 to 4,685 lbs
Problem is everything is porky these days. Even if you cherry pick and compare a Y to a Honda CR-V with 1/2 the power you end up with 3,337-3,649 lbs. All good, I’ll continue with my lifetime free supercharging and zero maintenance and destroying roads with my overweight Tesla 🙂
An assertion that demand doesn’t matter to house prices is about as believable as the earlier argument that adding supply doesn’t matter.
International students are not the biggest source of growth in BC’s non-permanent resident population. The Feds have a lot of latitude in deciding whether to grant business requests for TFWs. As unemployment rises there’s all the more reason not to grant as many requests.
Immigration numbers aren’t the problem per se, and our growth rate isn’t really the problem either.
The problem is the rapid acceleration of growth rate. It’s just not possible for housing or other services to adapt that quickly, and certainly not under our current approvals system. With the sentiment shift we’re likely to see deceleration into normal ranges again which is good.
New dinner-party conversation rules: No politics, no religion, no Tesla
lol, go ahead and cherry-pick if you want, but Teslas are porky.
Consumers Report has Tesla ranked near the bottom of reliability ranking at 19/24. The article says Tesla is plagued by build quality and software problems. It sounds like you may be luckier then most Tesla owners in terms of reliability as article says its a myth that electic vehicles are more reliable then ICE vehicles. Perhaps in a few more years they can figure things out.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-placed-bottom-consumer-reports-reliability-rankings/#:~:text=Consumer%20Reports'%20annual%20reliability%20rankings,least%20reliable%20category%20of%20vehicles.
In my 8 years with the Model S I figure I’ve saved over $60,000 in gas plus maintenance, that being said I drive a lot. If I replicate that same with my new 45k purchase price model Y over the next 8 years how do you possibly argue against EVs. Not to mention a ton of saved time not having to go to gas station once a week, no trips to service centers, etc. Just imagine things in another 8 years with further improvements in technology and even lower priced models.
Our Leaf when we sell it is going to be nearly as cheap per km as my first car, a 1994 Toyota Tercel, and that car was so basic it didn’t even have a clock. No doubt not the typical experience but we got lucky there
The Model 3 is barely heavier than a 3-series, Audi A4, C-class and the rwd Model 3 comes with SL tires and doesn’t require XL.
Model Y needs XL tires but most Audi Q5s, for example, variants also have XL tires.
XL tires also not significantly more than SL tires.
Where Tesla’s get a bad reputation for tires is a lot of Tesla’s are spec’ed out, by choice for looks, with massive 21″ wheels and 21″ tires will cost a lot whether electric or not. Secondly, with so much power you will certainly wear tires faster. If you have a BMW M3/M4/M5 it will shred tires as well. Some of it is the extra weight (they aren’t much heavier than comparable ICEs), but not as big of a factor as the first two.
If you have a model 3 with 18s your fine.
They would have a higher load rating than tires for a comparable ICE vehicle.
Gonna be a long time before it makes financial sense for me because we are a single car household that doesn’t drive that much, I like to tow things, and I’m cheap as hell when it comes to purchasing vehicles.
If we lived in shawnigan and I was commuting everyday then I would totally consider an EV as a second vehicle. In the current circumstances, it makes zero sense to me.
I got that from the discussion below. I was just expressing my dismay at the mind blowing stupidity of $4,000 headlights.
“Markets have been betting on rate cuts ever since the Fed started hiking rates… and rate-cut bets were followed up by subsequent rate hikes all the way to 5.5%, and markets have been wrong with their rate-cut bets in 2022 and 2023, and so that’s nothing new.” -Wolf
Sounds like a classic mobius-loop:
if financial conditions eased prematurely, the housing market could rebound, further fuelling shelter price pressures,
∞
Higher costs facing homeowners renewing their mortgages are an expected fuel to inflation
∞
Tuesday’s report on annual inflation for November came in higher than most economists’ forecasts, holding steady at 3.1 per cent amid ongoing pressure from services and shelter inflation.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/10182372/bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-housing-market-rebound/
Most people don’t buy expensive vehicles, they lease (rent) them. Does Tesla lease vehicles?
I just buy regular tires for my Tesla? I had the brakes inspected at 220,000 km and there was 60% left on the original break pads (EVs don’t go through brakes because of regenerative breaking).
I do agree thought, financially doesn’t make sense for most people but then again buying anything from Audi/Merc/BMW is even stupider financially.
Electric cars still don’t make sense from a financial standpoint unless you drive a lot more then average. Taking a lower priced electric car at 50K plus delivery and other fees of 2.5K then taxes of 6K puts cost at around 60K. Rebates are applied after taxes, if your income is over 80K the BC rebate is only 2K and at 100K income you receive no rebate provincially. Federal rebate is 5K, so your total cost is between 50K and 55K. Average Km driven per year in BC is published at 12K (even less in Victoria), so gas for ICE car costs about $1,500/year. New car like Hyundai Kona ICE about 32K including taxes. Electric cars need less maintenance but they require more expensive tires and still go through things likes brakes, shocks etc. You could invest the 20K+ you save from buying electric into a gic at 5% and get almost free gas for the year and still have 20K left over.
Is it lack of demand or a corporate shell-game that limits American EV production?
“Ford today gave another signal in a series of signals – it’s planning to cut production of its F-150 Lightning by half in 2024 to just 1,600 trucks a week …Instead of focusing on designing competitive EVs – cost-competitive EVs – and to build the supply chains needed to produce them, GM announced $10 billion in share buybacks two weeks ago, and Ford $5 billion in share buybacks, to kowtow to Wall Street and keep their shares from plunging further.
…Meanwhile, Tesla’s Model Y has become the #2 bestselling model in the US in 2023 through Q3, with a market share of 2.5% of all new light vehicles sold…In California, Tesla was the #2 automaker by registrations in Q3, behind Toyota.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/12/its-like-ford-gm-and-fca-got-run-over-by-a-tesla-on-autopilot/
The claim that you quoted by the Minister in the G&M article was “ the issues of housing and an influx of temporary residents have been “increasingly tied together “ just seems to be creating yet another false bogeyman for housing – “foreign students”
So to be clear, these “ meaningful reforms” you told us will be coming will mostly affect some “substandard” Ontario schools, and not impact the foreign student numbers in BC. I suppose the BC foreign student numbers might actually increase if the Ontario schools are forced to close.
And so it should remain business-as-usual for the numbers of Foreign students in BC at legitimate schools , with no “meaningful reforms” expected in BC. Great!
Yup. Poilievre will scrap the mandate and that doesn’t matter much to adoption rates. Almost no one will want a gas car in 2035
Not if they’re going to real universities and getting real educations. Just build housing on campus which is quick and easy.
The reason people are talking about international students is more because of colleges and degree mills in Ontario that are not providing a real education and exploiting students and/or scamming the immigration system. The fact that it’s mostly an Ontario problem also gives a clue as to who is mostly to blame here. No enforcement of bad actors combined with frozen funding for universities means increasing dependence on international students for survival + scams.
Foreign students pay big bucks tuition, average is $36,000 per year. +$15,000 living expenses for $50k total.
Four of them rooming in a house are probably paying a combined $150,000 tuition, and spending another $50,000 living expenses.
Obviously an economic benefit to Canada.
Does it really make sense to prevent them coming here to spend that $200k per year, so we free up one house?
Totally agree. Lots of reasons to switch, and I don’t know why mass adoption hasn’t been faster. I don’t agree with the ongoing government cash e-car rebates, as there are plenty of better uses for government money.
The international student issue is complex. Due to static government funding and tuition freezes (e.g. in Ontario), colleges and universities have become increasingly dependent on international student tuition to pay the bills. Some of them get more money from international students than from their respective provincial governments.
Simply imposing substantial cuts on student visas would knock down this house of cards. The feds, provinces, and colleges and universities are all part of the problem and they all need to be part of a workable solution. But as long as the feds appear to be taking the heat for the problem, don’t expect much action from the provinces.
Right, of course those are new car sales. In terms of cars on the road, Canada is at 1.4% EV (electric) and BC leads the country, but that’s still only 2.8% of cars on the road in BC being electric.And that includes both full battery EV and plugin hybrids. Growing fast, and I’m a big EV advocate, but let’s be realistic about where we’re actually at now. If, best-case scenario, we average 50% of new car sales as EV over the next 7 years, by 2030 we would still be under 20% of cars on the road being EV.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231102/dq231102b-eng.htm#
It’s my opinion that governments do not need to regulate or encourage the EV switch over anymore.
People are doing it anyway. Why? Because it is a no brainer. (I’ve said it over and over again…I can’t afford a gas car.)
There will always be articles or people pointing to the odd goofy story. For example: “Ford truck sales are way down and so it must mean that no one wants electric trucks anymore”. But when you dig a little deeper, you find out that people do in fact still want the electric trucks….they are simply rejecting the recent huge upfront price increases by Ford. (At the same time competitors are reducing their prices.)
China and other countries are producing cheap, quality electric vehicles and they are being sold all over the world now. The US is trying desperately to keep them out. But the fact is that Ford etc are going to be forced to come up with innovation and solutions or go out of business. Going out of business is the most likely outcome.
Tesla has leapfrogged everyone else because of their innovation. Tesla has the advantage of being able to focus on one technology. Ford and the others are having to do both at this time. (It weakens them.)
And Yes: There are still problems that have to be solved with electric cars. But they have crossed that Rubicon and the technology is spectacular. Battery costs are also projected to come down in price significantly as well…. if that is a worry for anyone.
The government needs to get ahead of the curve and install charging stations along main routes. No question. But if you drive an electric car you will realize that most of the time you charge your car at home. I suggest you install a level two charger at your home if you can. (About the same power as needed for a stove outlet)
On the other hand: My guess is that it will not be very far off in the future that your car will simply trundle off to the nearest charging station by itself and be charged up for you.)
My advice is don’t hesitate in buying an EV.
The government will not be handing out thousands of dollars for much longer because it is clear they don’t have to.
In another article in the G&M: “While Canada does have caps on the number of people granted permanent residency each year, there are no limits placed on international student and temporary foreign worker programs.” In another paragraph they said that about 313,000 non-permanent residents came to the country in those 3 months.
No limits? I had no idea so I went looking for more facts. From the govt of Canada’s own website, it seems they intentionally opened the doors. Guess they didn’t realize the trickle down effects with housing.
Well that didn’t take long.
“Mr. Miller said the issues of housing and an influx of temporary residents have been “increasingly tied together and there is obviously a correlation.” He said he is planning to announce reforms to tackle the influx at the start of 2024.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-immigration-minister-says-he-will-rein-in-number-of-temporary-foreign/
This is an issue that is entirely independent of EV vs gas. Unfortunately the cheap and cheerful car is dying out. Doesn’t have to, it still exists in other countries but not here
No deductibles anymore. I start self insuring once a car drops below $40k in value. Saves 1k per year that I rather throw into Embridge/Telus/TD.
Because a large proportion of insurance payoffs anywhere is for personal injury/death and litigation costs, and a no-fault system like BC’s minimizes those costs.
Ontario still has the old litigation regime and I pay about $1K a year for a decade old Honda Fit. And that’s with a discount for doubling with house insurance.
Marko, how is it possible your annual car insurance premiums are only $600/year. I assume you have your vehicle registered as a work vehicle and minimum 3MM liability, I also assume your deductibles are high. My cost $800/year for newer non business vehicle.
I see car insurance and registration fees for electric vehicles going up dramatically in the future to replace lost gas taxes and to cover increases wear and tear on roads due to electric vehicles being so much heavier than similar ice vehicles.
The idea is that the cost of maintenance is so high that people stay in the purchase lease cycle every 2-4 years to create the perception it is more effective to replace rather to repair and keep. Works especially on the lease options where the return and resale can occur with “certified” used cars as well for maximizing return to company on each unit from start of the vehicles use cycle to it’s end. Nothing really new for the auto industry, similar practices occured in the 70s and 80s where the North American manufacturers almost intentionally built lemons and then made them difficult to repair by introducing tools and technology that weren’t made available to 3rd party maintenance companies or mechanics (today’s version would be proprietary software in EVs or company specific tech) to force business back to the manufacturer of the product. It was only corrected by the influx of high quality Japanese imports (taking market share) and anti-trust lawsuits in the US (that opened up the maintenance). The primary issue with EV mandates, is that it will limit EVs advancement on reliability and cost effectiveness because the reliable and cost effective alternatives are banned. Want EVs to be better? Gas vehicles still need to be available to compete against them. Remember, people didn’t move into Teslas because of a mandate, it was because a person was able to innovate the technology, market and sell it. Then the rest of the industry played catch into order to compete and sell. If government kneecaps the consumer on not having alternatives to EVs, innovation, reliability and costs will suffer. Let government do too much in deciding what is built and sold in the auto industry, you will just end up with similar outcomes that have happened in housing and medicine.
So on my shit box gas powered vehicle, there are a couple $20 bulbs that go into a plastic headlamp assembly that I could order off rockauto for $90.
If I’m understanding correctly, these assemblies now cost in the thousands of dollars on some newer vehicles. Jesus Christ.
+1, my insurance $613/year on the Model S and each headlight is over $4k.
Dockside at Bosa from 26 to 14 active listings as a result of some recent sales (still above pre-sale purchase price) and a number of listings cancelled and rented.
How our car insurance is so cheap with what vehicles cost to fix I have no idea
This seems more like a personal write off story in general. My friend had an Audi (non-EV) written off with what didn’t look like a ton of damage. Same story, each headlight was in the thousands.
If you were in a gas Kia Soul the headlights would have still needed replacing.
You should visit Vancouver one day. I think downtown must be approaching 50% EV…..odd that they aren’t experiencing blackouts as everyone predicted the electrical grids would not be able to handle EVs 🙂
Canada is already above 10% and B.C. well over 20%
We will be likely at 80% by 2030
These horseless carriages will never catch on!
You will be as wrong about this as you are about most other things.
It appears the public aren’t as enthusiastic about EVs as the government. See below. I seriously doubt that Canadian uptake of EVs will ever exceed 10%. Forcing auto makers to produce a product that consumers don’t want will result in massive bankruptcies.
I appreciate all the advice.
I’ll update everyone a year from now on how things worked out if we proceed and what the downsides or benefits were.
Input has been useful and I appreciate it.
I love solving problems and projects.
Have a Merry Christmas everyone and all the best for the New Year ahead.
Marko, what neighbourhood for the Vancouver MM sale?
Our next vehicle will for certain be an EV, but that’s still a few years out. Job One is to knock out the mortgage; Job Two is to save up the cash. Fortunately, our 280,000-km, 19-year-old Toyota is still driving great, with low repair costs (knock on wood).
Derek sq ft for building alone is just fine . Soft costs are something else and they have generally been about 125 for condos and 250 ish for homes . There is no way you will be on the upside hiring a GC and paying todays commercial money
Personal story regarding EV… 5 years ago almost to the day I rear-ended a large Dodge truck sliding down a hill at a light. His hitch lined up pretty well with the hood of my Kia Soul EV causing the hood to scrunch up nicely like an accordion. The airbag didn’t even deploy, that’s how slow I was going, and the car was still driveable (was able to move it into an adjacent parking lot waiting for the tow.). The vehicle was 13 months old. The repair shop said the estimate to repair it was “over $30k”, said one part alone in the engine area would be 7k, headlights for example are 1500 each, etc. And to top it off, he said they just “didn’t want to do it” because they had a ton of other cars to work on (lots of accidents that day thanks to winter conditions) that wouldn’t be so complicated to work on, so ICBC wrote it off. I was told the car would be worth quite a bit at auction as the battery was perfect and off course all the other parts like the tires, etc. Luckily I got replacement value and was able to buy a new car (got another kia soul Ev), and my insurance did not go up at all.
Derek, I’m not a builder, but I think the reason is because the per square foot is based on 1 kitchen and maybe 2.5 bathrooms. Making rooms bigger after that probably just means more lumber, drywall, paint, etc, which are lower paid trades. But start adding kitchens, bathrooms, this means more plumbers, electricians, and of course, more appliances, countertops, cabinets, tiling, etc.
Another missing middle sale…Vancouver agent.
There are a number of good personal family reasons for us to want to build a fourplex if we decide to go that route. At the very least it will be a Duplex. (It’s neither about wanting to make a lot of money or to lose a lot of money.)
Can someone explain to me why a “per foot” cost can’t be used as a reasonable average calculator to get a picture of the cost to build a duplex or a fourplex. One would think that it would actually be easier to build a fourplex.
It’s not an argumentative question, I’m just asking and would like to understand.
Everything would be a simple level of build. Nothing particularly fancy.
The consequences of a Tesla catching fire are high impact, but what is the alternative? You buy an ICE that is 5x more likely to catch fire? You are completely ignoring the extent of damage that would be caused to a modern ICE car in a bottom out/running over a rock that would cause battery damage in an EV. I don’t know about other manufactures but I know my old Model S had a thick titanium casing protecting the battery. Based on millions of cars they have on the road if battery scratching was an issue Tesla would just increase the thickness of the casing.
This is just poor reporting in my opinion. Issues in this day and age are extremely well known if you use some common sense and research. For example, it is well know that the Tesla Model S Plaid has a factory defect that simply destroys rear tires….how is this know? The thousands of people complaining online on various platforms -> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/plaid-21%E2%80%9D-rear-tire-woes-factory-defect.269394/
Battery scratch replacements are just not a common thing whatsoever. Of course you’ll find individual stories for everything. Do I doubt people are stuck looking at $60k battery replacements? No doubt; however, the biggest Tesla Model S battery is only $20k +/- so $60k is obviously a crazy anomaly due to a weird low production model. If you buy something normal/proven like a Model 3/Y it isn’t going to be $60k and the odds of the battery being scratched are much lower than something weird happening with your ICE.
Maybe Leo could chime in on this discussion. (He’s so busy and not participating in the blog much these days.)
Not sure about that Marko.
It might be a statistically low risk, but the consequence of a voided warranty and insane battery replacement cost are high impact if your motivation is to have lower environmental impact and save money. If you then have to make an insurance claim and your insurance rate doubles for 10 years that is a significant cost.
However, this bad press may cause manufacturers to add warranty protection for this situation.
Yea, you aren’t building a multiplex for $275. Going to be way north of that.
There are millions of Teslas on the road and I can tell you I’ve bottom out my Model S many times including once at high speed without any issues. If “scratched” battery replacements were an actual common occurrence it would be well known.
This whole battery scratching non-sense is just as stupid as the Tesla’s catching fire non-sense. Yes, Teslas catch fire but will ignore that fact that they catch fire at a much lower rate than ICE. Yes, if you run over a huge rock you will probably cause damage to the battery…..and yes running over a huge rock will likely cause extensive damage to an ICE as well.
Did I buy a new Model Y as I did not want to be driving around an old Tesla without warranty heading towards 300,000 km? Yes, but I would have sold an ICE long long before 200,000 km. Just imagine the bills an Audi/BMW/Mercedes would rack up between 200k and 300k kms.
Context is super important. People talk about battery replacements at 300,000 km….a mileage the majority of ICEs never even get to.
What do you think is more expensive. The cost of a an Audi Q5 with 300,000 km, for example, or a full engine OR transmission rebuild on such? Of course there will come a time with each EV when the cost of the battery exceeds the value of the car.
Does it make sense to build a fourplex to rent even if you already own the land? Our conclusion after doing the math was we would only do this to help a family member because of the low after tax return, hassle and risk of building and ongoing management vs something like a gic. Interest rates and taxes are too high for cash flow to work. If you hold the appreciation will compensate, but it might not be for a good long while. Might work if you strata and sell the units but the after tax returns don’t seem compelling vs just selling your lot – maybe unless you are a builder yourself.
I was talking about hard costs “VicREanalyst”
Think of us as a family running a cool aid stand.
A “mom and pop operation” would be too complex for us.
We do see a good opportunity coming up with the new changes and we are excited about that. It feels like one of those no brainer moments.
One thing we have always been careful to do is not risk our principle residences and we work together as a family pulling all our resources. We always try to consider the worst case scenario. The “What if’s”, and how that might effect our ability to hang on until things swung back around. We don’t like surprises.
It is also interesting to do the hard math and come to the conclusion that it must be hard for builders to make a ton of money.
It’s no wonder that rents are high because the costs are high….. as many here will understand.
Are you talking about hard and soft cost per sqft?
They’ve only ramped up to that this year, and their batteries are different for different models. Mind you I don’t think they really sell any Model S/X any more.
Yes….. keep in mind i am talking “square foot” prices.
I wasn’t talking about the price of the house as being a set price.
Deryk, you said nothing about three more kitchens and three more bathrooms! That’s another $200,000.
giving it to the kids. ..fully expect a wheels fall off finale.
Deryk, I believe Marko is looking to do the same thing and his price quoted is higher than what you had.
What is your purchase timeline? Your Mazda3 is already one of the best ICE vehicles in terms of emissions; why not just drive it until the wheels fall off?
And the TC article is quoting a rep from Hyundai while drive.org is quoting and independent assessment by Reuters in January 2023 followed by another article which states that scratching a battery even slightly can lead to junking the whole car – exactly what just happened to the Hyundai owner’s 2022 car. Tesla’s are not immune from this either.
And, shocker, yet another google search for a Hyundai battery nightmare:
It is enough to have me reconsidering my next car purchase. Not just the cost and anxiety, but what is the point if the environmental impact is greater than running my mazda 3.
Thank you “WhateverIwanttocallmyself”. Much appreciated.
I do feel quite confident in going with these builders because of the quality of their work. As I mentioned in another post the place we are considering is modest build (possibly a fourplex depending on the new rules.) and the purpose would be for rental.
(Simple as possible but with solid bones.)
Thanks “Vic Re analyst” …..our own house is fairly high end with fairly high quality finishes.
We had asked for a price guideline on a straightforward, simple build that would be rented out.
The main thing we are looking for is good bones and a solid building with simple finishes.
Electric battery costs of replacement. (Consumer Reports 2023)
“There are several factors that determine the replacement cost of an electric car battery, including the make and model of the car, the size and capacity of the battery, market prices, and the cost of labor. The data at this time is limited, as only a small number of EV models have been on the market long enough to warrant a battery replacement. On average, you can expect the replacement cost of an electric car’s battery to run from $5,000 to upward of $15,000, according to an article from Consumer Reports. ”
More here:
https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/electric-car-battery-replacement-costs.html
Those are some great prices . Having a bite last nite with a couple of friends that are still doing custom builds and we are talking 400 bucks a square and that would include the 250 grand in soft costs , does not include land
Well your driving.org article says it’s “not rare” and your TC article says it’s “extremely rare.”
Yes, and Tesla is looking at about 1.8M sales in 2023 (6x Hyundai), so a big economy of scale difference, as I suggested.
Deryk, I’m guessing the home is a rancher on a poured slab out in Sooke at $225 a square foot with standard quality of finish. The builder’s are usually higher at about $275 including GST, but your builder doesn’t have to pay a commission to a real estate agent or financing costs to a bank.
Good deal.
#79). Caveat Emptor, Are those over 60 countries weird too?
It is not rare for electric vehicles to be written off solely due to the cost of replacing the battery. And batteries are on the bottom of vehicles and easily damaged. If you go over a bump and your battery is damaged voiding your warranty and your car is written off your insurance rate apparently doubles for 10 years.
It costs at least half of the total vehicle price to replace a battery it seems. Tesla newer models have “structural batteries” which have “zero repairability” and “straight to the grinder if damaged”.
https://www.driving.org/electric-cars-more-likely-to-be-written-off-due-to-battery-costs/#:~:text=News%20agency%20Reuters%20released%20a%20report%20revealing%20that,to%20replace%20than%20a%20petrol%20or%20diesel%20engine.
Seems low, lowest I’ve seen post covid is $275. What does your $225 include? Specifically what kind of kitchen/washroom?
I believe Hyundai is on track to sell 300,000 evs this year, so about what Tesla was doing pre-pandemic.
From the TC article:
Staff in the insurer’s claims operations report that “it is an extremely rare occurrence” for vehicles to be written off solely for damage to a battery, Harper said.
Secondly, it could be an economy of scale thing, in that Hyundai is selling relatively few EVs. I gather that a Tesla battery pack replacement is $5-20K by comparison.
And yet a simple google search does not turn up a different reality and that is exactly what the quote was to replace the electric battery in a 2022 Hyundai Ioniq 5. Are you doubting the reporting?
and a full investigation:
And that simple google search shows this car owner is not unique:
Does anyone have any thoughts on the cost of house building. I’ve been quoted $225.00 per square foot by someone who built our house and did a super job. The square footage is priced to include the garage area as well at that price.
We own the lot.
Your thoughts?
I read that article on EV battery replacement. Unfortunately it does not reflect reality. A simple google will clarify that.
And what I am saying is that if it were not for the DCCs charged to developers then home owners would be paying higher property taxes than they are today. If you owned a million dollar home 25 years ago then you would have been paying $10,000 a year in property taxes.
That perhaps would have changed the dynamics of today’s housing market. The empty nestor retirees would have been considering down sizing from their 2,100 square feet home, thereby freeing up the bottleneck of affordable older middle income houses in our housing supply. Young families would have considered property taxes as a limiting factor in the amount of their bids on homes and that would have likely kept home prices from ballooning making the economics easier for developers to assemble single family properties to construct more condominiums and town homes.
As it is now, developers have to pay single family values for development sites which for the majority of land in our city is too high to develop immediately. Most developers have to land bank development sites for several years until condo prices increase to the point that it is economically feasible for them to develop the land. They have to buy the properties today and hope that condo prices will steadily rise over the next 3 or 5 years.
Condo prices have been flat for the last few years which means projects are put on hold. You can blame the cities for not approving projects faster but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will get built any faster. Developers need to have a steady increase in condo prices over their holding period before the project makes economic sense to proceed.
Home owners may think that a developer will pay more for their property than a person desiring a home to live in. But in most cases the value of their property is higher as a single family home than as a development site.
It costs more to get an EV battery replaced than a new vehicle does? And the batteries can be damaged by driving over a bump?
Yes, because house prices have risen faster than inflation. That doesn’t mean property taxes should rise faster than inflation to keep up with property values . As we all know, the mill rate gets adjusted precisely so that the government gets the taxes they need.
So I don’t subscribe to the idea that there has been any “under taxing of housing”. Similarily, if house prices fall, and our property taxes stay the same, I wouldn’t subscribe to the idea that there is now an “over-taxing of housing”.
Patrick, the problem may be that the municipalities have been under taxing housing perhaps for political reasons. If one looks back 20 or 30 years ago a home that had a value of one million were paying twice the property taxes as a million dollar home today.
There are many possible reasons why including that the municipalities are having the developers pay increasing Development Cost Charges rather than having the home owners pay for the improvements to the city’s infrastructure. These significantly higher DCCs have been a cash cow for the municipalities and were used to offset property tax increases.
Slowing new construction means less DCCs and now the districts will have to look at raising home property taxes as well as reducing staff. We may be entering into a period of austerity in municipal spending with less amenities such as bike lanes as well as deferring maintenance. Those pot holes on your street might not be fixed immediately and you may have to wait till next year’s budget to have them filled.
City budgets have bloated and the district’s have become over staffed.
For BCers, the spec tax at 0.5% is in the same range as property tax, so sure it could be thought of as a big sin tax. $5,000 per year on a $1m home.
But for foreigners and the absurd category of “satellite families” (absurd because the homes are often occupied year around, so no “sin”), the tax is 4X as high at 2%, so is well beyond a sin tax. That 2% foreigner spec tax is $20,000 per year on a $1 million home – too high.
@islandgirl
Thanks for that bit of realism. Here is another realist pointing out that what the Federal Reserve says is not what the market hears:
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/18/fed-members-fan-out-to-step-out-raging-rate-cut-fires/
“It’s not what you say, or what the chair says. It’s what did they hear, and what did they want to hear…“The next phase is not when to reduce rates, even though that’s where the markets are at,” she said. “It’s about how long do we need monetary policy to remain restrictive…“One thing we’ve learned even over the past year is that the data can move and in surprising ways, we need to be ready to move to tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall or reverse.”
If wishes were horses, the whole FIRE industry would ride.
Thank you Yemen for putting financial pressure into the equation.
The owl is there for a reason- to feast on the abundant prey offered in your neighborhood, I.e. vermin. Welcome the owl.
I have two questions on the student issue. First has there been a large decrease in the numbers of foreign students in our regular universities. If so. why so. Some actual numbers and facts would be nice.
On a different note how is the presale market doing in Victoria.
Finally how do you keep an owl off your chimney and your roof?
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.economic-indicators.scotia-flash.-december-19–2023-.html
It’s a little amusing that someone thinks our “LGTBQ policies” are a big deciding factor for international students. But look Max – happily for you there are still over 60 countries where homosexuality is illegal. I bet they are real magnets for international students. Hello Yemen! Hello Sudan!
#60). @ patriotz, Its either exemption on the capital gains tax…Or we can write off all the Interest, property tax, Insurance, maintenance, and what ever else it takes to run that household…every year.
#59). @ Marko Juras, I am not trying to be nosy, and you don’t even have to answer…How much time have you spent in the terms of years on that Veterans at Sooke property? What is the land use, and how much do you think it will cost you to build it out?
I am just curious…I have a buddy in Colwood trying to deal with them right now…How was your overall experience dealing with Colwood?
How about a real speculation tax?
https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/ontario-tried-a-speculation-tax-on-property-and-the-market-collapsed-overnight
#57). @ Caveat Emptor, I am terribly sorry you disagree. Would you like me to buy you some flowers? Its a fact, a lot of other countries out there do not agree with some of Canada’s policies regarding certain issues as I mentioned above . Exactly what is it that you consider to be so weird about my comment?
Thank you Dee! Canada has grave problems we need to address but the “turning into a third world country” narrative is just BS.
That’s legitimately one of the weirdest comments I have seen on HHV
Think of it as an incentive to rent out the second place, or if you’d rather, a sin tax.
#53). @ Leo S, a lot of people out there have very little left to pay on the mortgage balance. I don’t think these high rates will be disastrous.
@ Patrick, The plan is that you will own nothing and be happy…That’s the end game.
Wait, wait, wait….. What? Taxes don’t make things cheaper? lol….. Wait, wait, wait… What? Government sold a tax as measure that help housing availability, but it was just lazy policy playing to the simple minded? Wait, wait, wait…. What? Government is now using what was claimed to be a focused measure as a cash cow for general revenues and doesn’t care how people are impacted? Lol…
Right. Ask any of the investors on HHV if they own multiple homes and leave some empty just because they don’t want to rent them out.
I think the rest are two situations. One is the “life gets complicated” situations where people need two homes. And the other is the “vacation home” crowd that want a “ Pied-à-terre”. The BC spec/vacancy tax largely leaves the “vacation home” crowd exempt, as vacation destinations like Whistler and the Gulf Islands are exempt from spec. Vacancy tax, despite them both being critically short of rentals and other housing. Census data shows 38% of Gulf Islands homes are vacant, yet they are desperately short of workers because they can’t find rental accommodation.
Victoria’s small household size, 14% below Canada average is part of the problem with us having adequate housing.We get alarmed and change laws if 1% of the homes are going to foreigners or STVR’s, but here’s 14% lost due to small household size. But what we do about incentives to increase household size – nothing .
—— When Canada builds 40 homes it houses 100 people, because average household size is 2.5
—— When Victoria builds 40 homes, it houses 88 people. Because Victoria av household size is 2.2 . This 2.2 number is remarkably constant, as it is both the overall average, and the incremental builds in the last 5 census years. So we have smaller than average household size, and the homes we built recently (2016-2021) end up housing smaller numbers (2.2) than Canada overall. For example. Census says 2016-2021 our population rose 30,650 and dwellings rose by 13956, and 30650/13956 = 2.20. So we are building homes for small households.
—- Because of this, Victoria needs to build 14% more homes (100/88=114%) than average for Canada, to house the same number of people.
So you are of the belief that most of the people caught in the speculation tax net are people who are in precarious situations and need two homes rather than people who own two homes and just don’t want to rent it out?
Dee, it’s not 2019 anymore. Canada is fundamentally different now than it used to be.
Most people who own “ multiple homes for investment” pay no spec tax. They rent them out, and are exempt. That’s why the term “speculation tax” is a misnomer because it doesn’t target speculation. Instead it targets people who actually need two homes. Ironically, government MLA’s are among such people, who need a second home in Victoria and the first in their home constituency. So of course our government pays the vacancy tax for them. And it’s just another example of the government telling us to “do as I say, not as I do”.
I don’t see why it matters who owns the home – the impact is the same – less homes available for people who need it. Whether thats a BCer that owns multiple homes and keeps them empty or a foreigner the impact is the same. If we were talking about buying up hot tubs or ski-doos then who cares, but we are talking about housing – something people need. And while you can point the blame to all three levels of government, the fact of the matter is we are low on homes.
I realize that some will point to situations where people need to have an unrented unit but the collateral damage is likely something the Province considered and i imagine its a small number compared to people who just own multiple homes for investment. I find it hard to feel a lot of sympathy for people owning multiple homes, which they aren’t renting, when many others can barely find a place to rent, or pay the costs to do so.
Why start a comment with a strawman?
The only reason most projects are proceeding at all is because of CMHC’s MLI Select financing. Good to have a ton of secure rentals but even if you don’t like rentals it’s far better than having a collapse in housing starts. An abundance of rentals takes pressure off the resale market as well.
I can’t figure out why HHvers seem happy to see stats like Leo’s chart today showing that 65% of all construction are rentals. To me it looks disastrous because it means that only leaves a small number (35%) of new homes to purchase. Disastrous meaning far below the additional number of would-be househunters that are being added to Victoria’s population. And let’s not forget that almost all HHV are people looking to buy, not rent.
To me, 65% of construction as rentals is good for renters, but a disaster for househunters. Because it means only 35% of the approx 4,000 homes built per year are to be sold. That’s only 1,400. And lots of those will be bought by investors to rent, so maybe 1,000 left over as new units that can actually be bought. Of course almost none are SFH (net, after tear downs). Once again we are making “hotdogs” (rentals) and offering them to people who want “steaks” (homes to purchase). Never mind that they aren’t SFH, they are small units, but you can’t even buy them because they’re mostly rented!
Hey, if everyone’s cool with the idea that we are shifting to be “renters” instead of “homeowners”, then this “build rentals, rentals, rentals” plan will work great. I don’t think that many additional people actually want to be long term renters though.
“Spec tax” revealed to be a naked exercise of impotent envy. Who coulda known?
“When the provincial NDP cooked this up in 2017 it was aimed squarely at foreigners who owned properties used occasionally. “The vast majority of British Columbians will not be the intended target of this tax,” said finance minister Carole James. That year 20% of the people hit with the tax were BCers and 42% were foreigners.
But that was then. The province expanded the spec tax until it embraced vast hunks of the Island, the Valley and other places where people in Vancouver own seasonal residences. So last year almost 70% of the folks nailed were residents of BC or other parts of Canada (mostly Alberta). Only 13% were non citizens.”
From Garth. Nice to hear a rational voice from time to time.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-analytical-note-2023-19/
By the end of November 2023, about 45% of the mortgages taken out before the Bank of Canada started raising its policy interest rate in March 2022 had seen an increase in payments. By the end of 2026, virtually all remaining mortgage holders in this group will go through a renewal cycle and, depending on the path for interest rates, may face significantly higher payments.
Borrowers who either took out a mortgage in 2021—when interest rates were at historical lows—or opted for a variable mortgage rate will generally have experienced the largest increases in payments by the end of 2026. Among variable-rate mortgage holders, those with fixed payments who have not taken action to avoid large future increases will be impacted at renewal. For this group, median payments are expected to increase by 54% during the period between the end of February 2022, just before interest rates began to increase, and the end of 2027. In contrast, those with variable payments have already been impacted, with median payments up 70% in November 2023 compared with their level at the end of February 2022. However, based on market rate expectations, payments are expected to decline for this group starting in mid-2024.
The impact of higher interest rates on borrowers’ ability to pay their mortgage will largely depend on their future income. Without any income growth, the median borrower may need to dedicate up to 4% more of their pre-tax income to mortgage payments by the end of 2027. However, for some borrowers, income growth could mitigate the impact of higher interest rates on debt serviceability.
More rentals => higher vacancy => slower rent growth
Which again raises the question: why is your rental in Ladysmith but you choose to live in Winnipeg? You’re doing it bass-ackward.
Thanks for the chart but I was hoping to get peoples opinion as to impact a bit more. But you are right, I asked this question before.
I feel like we’ve had this exact exchange just a few weeks ago and I posted the same chart?
Wonder if you can give us the ten year historical range. I suspect that this might be a truer picture of the market simply because the total amount of inventory twenty years ago was so much less. More than half the west shore did not even exist.
It might be a misunderstanding on my part, but it seems that most of the new high rise buildings approved in the last couple of years are purpose built rentals. I am curious exactly what the impact of all these units coming on line might be for the overall rental market. They have the advantage of offering security of tenure over individually owned units.
Non-permanent residents now number up 2.2 million people in Canada, a 3x increase since Trudeau took office, or a little over 5% of the population.
While immigration might not directly correlate to housing prices on a year by year basis, it absolutely increases long run prices when there is a pre-existing supply shortage. It takes no advanced degrees to see this.
Current federal immigration and temporary resident policy is totally ludicrous, and support among voters is now exceptionally low. I predict mayhem is coming in the next federal election cycle.
For more on non permanent resident numbers, see (Use reader to view):
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canada-must-stem-the-surge-in-temporary-foreign-workers-and/
Completely wrong as it applies to Victoria. See below.
It also includes births, which are still higher than deaths, so the net foreign arrivals are actually lower.
Dee- You haven’t seen some parts of Canada. Come to the North End of Winnipeg, your description is very accurate. Just take a drive down Selkirk Avenue, it’s in shambles. Winnipeg has an arson almost every night, in fact some nights there are multiple arsons. Last year there was a homicide every week on average. 40 homicides so far this year. You should travel more in this country, conditions are abysmal, but our politicians never visit any place that would tarnish their view of the world. Conditions in other countries are horrific, they are the result of overpopulation and little to no prospect of earning a living. Sound familiar?
People who think we’re quickly turning into a third world country sound like they have never actually been to a third world country. I have. I saw an 8 year old girl singing on a blanket with her father in the middle of the school day trying to get money for the family. Also there is almost no middle class at all in these places – just the very rich and the very poor. Buildings are visibly falling apart and there is very little opportunity to move up the socio economic ladder. It is not like Canada at all and anyone who thinks otherwise needs to check their privilege and maybe do a bit more research.
Do we know why? Not just Covid related?
Pretty sure power of sale is an eastern Canadian thing. Never heard of it in BC.
As for foreclosures, I am not aware of an easy way to track them. If you really like court registries and have a lot of time on your hands, I guess you could look there.
The CBA does post mortgage arrears rates albeit with a bit of a lag. That’s probably your best.
Ya sure is looking more like the 90s , it sucked but the music was good
From: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-population-loss-to-alberta-and-ontario-1.7064169
I guess we just need Alberta to cut welfare rates and give out bus tickets again along with the BC premier handing casino licenses to people that build him a deck, then we can flash all the way back to the 90s.
How can we find out and track power of sales? Foreclosures? Leo is this something you have access too? It would be interesting to start tracking this moving forward, see if in fact they’re going up.
#37). Do you think TFWs driving up the population growth in BC, in this current, fragile, yet to be seen, but you know its coming, economic house of cards at the brink of tumbling down…Is a good thing?
Just wondering.
https://x.com/j_mcelroy/status/1737193573383336054?s=46&t=0J4XuWFR0YPYOE2g9lT53Q
Mostly TFWs, not students driving the growth in BC.
As things are now islandgirl that’s a very contrarian view.
#34). I’m pretty sure the majority of people had already priced in the higher interest rates, given the prior interest rates were at emergency level lows with only one direction to go…These interest rates were a once in a life time gift to the existing homeowners on a 5 year fixed.
Seeing as though inflation is “sticky” and coming in higher than expected. I would t be surprised if we get higher rates, not lower.
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/inflation-rate-holds-steady-delaying-interest-rate-cut
That 430,000 increase is at net number, which includes deaths, meaning the total of new arrivals is actually higher.
#29). I know for a fact Royal Roads University Is starving for International students right now…They just dropped right off. I have two In-laws that work there. I will say there are a lot of countries out there that don’t exactly agree with our LGBTQ policies…Just saying.
They look at Canada on the International stage…and just say wtf.
If anyone finds this post disrespectful or discriminating please just go ahead and delete this post. I really don’t care how anyone lives or what they do…I’m just passing on what I was told….factually.
The Ukrainians are special category of TFWs actually.
Yes. TFWs and study permit holders are the biggest groups here, though I believe recently refugees under the Ukraine program have been growing.
4 years ago I wrote an article basically agreeing with this. Yes they represent housing demand, but it’s primarily in the rental market, and they come and go.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/12/27/do-non-permanent-residents-add-to-housing-demand/
Problem is since then rather than moving up and down, the number of non-permanent residents has massively accelerated. It’s still a rental demand thing, but if rents are pushed up it pushes up prices as people try to escape high rents and low vacancy rates. There is also some serious concerns about exploitation of international students via degree mills.
No issue with TFWs or international students in general, but I think it’s reasonable to ask for a predictable program where numbers are planned in advance and don’t change so quickly.
Wouldn’t say “can’t”. Canadians will work in Timmies, etc. if you pay them a living wage. Agree about the farm workers though.
#25). Think of all the interest generated by all this debt. Its the crime of the century, Money for nothing… And I’m sure they get their chicks for free. I understand when someone lends money to an individual that there should be a fee for that service…but predatory lending , It Is defiantly taking Its toll on our society.
By non-permanent residents you mean asylum claimants, people studying here and temporary foreign workers?
Is the impact on housing really so dramatic – data shows they are mostly living in overcrowded (by Canadian standards) lower end apartments… And foreign students pay high fees and temporary workers staff a whole bunch of places that can’t otherwise get staff. The workforce participation of this group is very high. I am aware of, for example, many agricultural operations that would not be able to function without foreign workers and many of these operators do provide staff housing.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2023001/article/00006-eng.htm
That’s a feature, not a bug. Giving Canada the flexibility to simply change policies if it wants to change numbers of temporary workers/students. The foreign students pay tuition, the foreign workers provide cheap needed labour. Canada rental vacancy rate is 1.9%, close to the long term average, so there’s places for them to stay. They’re not taking up much space, typically just renting a single room.
#24). What needs to happen is we need to cut the fat off the upper echelon of both the Provincial and Federal Governments by at least 60%…Termination, dismissal, coerced resignation, cancelled contracts, whatever.
The general public needs to get consumer debt under control. A credit card is a convenience that is meant to be paid off in full at the end of each month…It is not meant to be something you rack up and carry for the rest of your life.
This system we live in depends on perpetual debt just to keep the machine moving forward…Pulling the future forward…kicking the can.
I’m not particularly concerned long term. We can absolutely build housing for the permanent immigration targets which really aren’t that high. The problem is the wild swings in non-permanent residents which can’t be planned for and supply side is slow to react even in ideal conditions. Sentiment is swinging on that and I expect meaningful reforms soon. The thing about non-permanent residents is that they can also leave quickly if policies change.
No, but it isn’t a math formula, it’s an observed co-relation, that applies to similar economies, population and housing stock sizes as the ones measured retrospectively. As I stated in my post “ Obviously it’s one variable of many, but given a particular economy and housing stock, adding people to it would be expected to lead to higher prices.”
#21). All I know is the retail industry is bleeding hard, the restaurant industry is ready to implode, the construction industry is showing signs of slowing, 300 miners up Island just lost their jobs…Food banks are on their knees, insolvencies are spiking, tent cities are everywhere.
Again, all google and no real world knowledge or experience. Does it make sense to you that relationship will be linear to infinity?
#19). The same thing is happening in New Zealand and Australia. Its like this mass exodus to the promise land, but those promises aren’t here…Yet we just keep bringing them in. I think there is something going on behind the curtain, this makes absolutely no sense.
Apart from gross material wealth I would say we are less of a third world country than the US, although I would admit that a place like Switzerland is ahead of us.
Or are you just talking about the proportion of population of non-European ancestry?
I wish people would come to terms with the fact that this country cannot build sufficient housing for the number of people coming each day. We are quickly becoming a third world country. To think otherwise is delusional.
One of the big reasons that Calgary and Edmonton have cheaper real estate is that they can grow in any direction. When you drive from downtown Victoria to the ferries it is clear that we also have a ton of land that could be used for development. I realize that a lot of it is designated ALR, but it is hard to see the value of protecting that much land for agriculture. If we ran out of fossil fuels tomorrow the majority of residents on Vancouver Island would starve as almost all our food comes off island. I would love to hear about a scenario where the ALR is vital for producing food and everyone still gets to live.
Likely 1.4% higher (per 1% population growth) than it would have been without the population growth.
Victoria is 1% of Canada’s population. Our 1% share of that would be an astounding 4,300 people added to Victoria in the last 3 months!
Now we underperform in terms of immigrants coming here, so a more accurate multiple is 0.6%, which 430k * 0.6 = 2,580 people, for Victoria’s 2.2 household size that’s 1,200 homes for them needed in 92 days, about 400 homes per month. And that doesn’t include the disproportionate numbers of ROCers that move to victoria .
So homes for 400 households needed per month in Victoria, just due to population growth.
What is the population growth from 2022 to now? What is the house price growth during that same period?
Also technological improvements during high growth periods. For example in the post-WWI period, which was a time of high population growth in the US, real RE prices actually fell because expansion of mass transit and to a lesser extent (at the time) roads made housing supply much more elastic.
It’s a comment on average lack of price elasticity in the housing markets of OECD countries.
But also worth noting that US has 330M people and lower prices. They didn’t get there with low growth rates, but much of that explosive growth happened early in their history before modern regulations that made it difficult to build housing.
A bear market is typically defined as a 20+% price decline.
Cambridge Univ. press published an article with the definitive sounding conclusion that “ We find that if population growth increases by one percentage point, house price growth increases by 1.4 percentage points.” Obviously it’s one variable of many, but given a particular economy and housing stock, adding people to it would be expected to lead to higher prices.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-demographic-economics/article/abs/do-demographic-changes-affect-house-prices/EDCD6AA8D40A41F19D9D24B4AD4F053A
“ Do demographic changes affect house prices?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 November 2019”
We find that if population growth increases by one percentage point, house price growth increases by 1.4 percentage points.
Well it was a very brief time of slow population growth. But low rates + FOMO + big preference shifts on housing types / locations probably major factors.
Late 90s saw a slow RE bear market in Vancouver with a 15% nominal price decline.
And most significantly, RE prices Canada-wide saw their greatest increase in decades while population growth was at its slowest rate in decades, during the pandemic.
So what was likely responsible?
Interestingly enough, while there’s no doubt that population growth is demand, high and low growth are actually very poorly linked to the real estate market. Prices doubled in the early 2000s in Victoria but BC population growth was dead slow. Then prices went nowhere for a number of years while population grew faster. Early 90s was hot with high growth, but mid/late 90s was dead with high growth.
BNN- Canada’s population grew by 430,000 in Q3. Highest ever. Good luck.
This is wild. Highest population growth in 50 years. Going to lead to a backlash. Feds tightening requirements for study permits now.
The part I can’t reconcile is that universities and colleges in BC are cutting budgets due to dropping enrollment and fewer international students. But where are all these people going?
Maybe, but when you’re at all time lows a small increase means big % increase. Will be interesting to watch for sure.
First