How many homes do we need?
It’s surprisingly difficult to answer the question of how much construction is enough. Most people (including past me) naively plot homes constructed next to population growth and conclude they’re a good match. Of course that ignores that these variables are closely linked, and people can’t come if there are no homes for them. From an economics standpoint, it ignores the huge price signal in the form of rapidly rising resale prices and rents which indicate that demand is outpacing supply.
To get a handle on this problem, the province mandated that each municipality complete a Housing Needs Assessment report which details the housing needs for their community, not just in terms of numbers, but by type and affordability levels as well. Unfortunately the approach to estimating need in a lot of these reports continued to be based on past population growth continuing in the municipality. This folly was pointed out in the BC Expert Panel Report on Housing Supply and Affordability, which identified that merely continuing the status quo on housing cannot by definition address a housing shortage. “As a result, planning to meet demographic projections often means planning to maintain or “bake in” today’s affordability issues”. Given the status quo is leading to consistently deteriorating affordability, maintaining it guarantees further deterioration.
So if not population growth per municipality, how do we estimate demand? One way to find a lower bound is simply to look at the growth of the entire region. In recent years, the region has grown at a fairly consistent rate of 1.7% per year, a sharp change from the less than 1% we had before that.
Ignoring what happened to prices for the moment, we can assume that the regional growth rate is an effective lower bound for the demand to live in the area. And while some people certainly have their heart set on Langford and only Langford, we can assume that housing in our 13 municipalities is functionally interchangeable. Most people that move to one part of the city would just as well move to another if given the chance, but because most municipalities refuse to build very much all that growth is pushed into Langford.
If we apply the regional average growth rate to each municipality, we can estimate the demand for growth by municipality if housing was available. At an average household size of 2 people for attached dwellings in Victoria, that gives us an estimate of how many homes should be built in each region every year if the growth was equally distributed.
It’s clear when comparing these estimates of growth-based demand that both the official community plans and our more recent housing needs assessments consistently understate housing needs in the area.
However even regional growth numbers should be seen as a lower bound. If suddenly each municipality managed to build out at a 1.7% growth rate, it would equalize growth but we would still be dealing with ultra-low inventory and rapid price growth. However at least this would give more growth oriented cities like Langford the chance to absorb the excess demand and stabilize prices, rather than just trying to accommodate the baseline growth. City staff estimated that the City of Victoria has an immediate shortage of 4500 to 6300 homes. Meanwhile Homes for Living approval records indicate that council approved about 1300 units per year, meaning it would take 3-5 years just to catch up with what they needed today, let alone keeping up with growth.
Of course currently we are effectively building at maximum pace anyway, so this is all somewhat academic in the short term. However a slowdown in construction is inevitable the next time the economy turns around, and if municipalities want to break the cycle of ever-decreasing affordability, they’ll need to plan ahead now to keep the construction industry busy. It starts with realistic targets, which the province increasingly has their eyes on.
In related news, we also have updated data on vacant homes in the region for the 2020 tax year. There was overall little change in the numbers of units subject to the Speculation & Vacancy Tax. The 2020 figures indicated a total of 1061 properties subject to the tax compared to 906 in 2019. The increase may come as a suprise, but it’s entirely due to changes in the tax. Vacant land was not previously subject to it, but that exemption expired in the 2019 tax year. Victoria actually saw a reduction in houses, townhouses, and condos subject to the tax in 2020, dropping from 880 in 2019 to 801 in 2020. The 2022 tax year will likely see another increase in the numbers of properties paying the tax as about 700 rental-restricted condos become subject to it. Those owners will either need to pay or sell their condos in 2022 to escape the tax.
Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| November 2021 |
Nov
2020
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 165 | 310 | 795 | ||
| New Listings | 170 | 316 | 823 | ||
| Active Listings | 993 | 954 | 1813 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 97% | 98% | 96% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | -14% | -22% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 2.3 | ||||
The market shows absolutely no sign of letting up going into the traditionally quiet period in November and December. New lists are lagging normal levels again, and every spare listing priced even remotely close to market value has been snapped up immediately. Sales to list ratios near 100% usually only happen at the end of December, but we’ve now had several periods of that in the last few months.
Inventory continues to decline, and we now have less than 1000 total listings, of which only 600 some are actually residential. Market froth is back to all time highs, with 63% of single family properties and 55% of condos going over the asking price month to date. Averages and medians are volatile and October’s were already very high, but expect more broken records in the November stats for market tightness and continued upward price pressure as a result. The relationship between market conditions and price changes is noisy, but clear.
Increasing rates should trim some demand from the market, but that won’t happen until current approvals expire around the end of the year.
“My main point is that I have zero desire to hang out in downtown like I would in a European centre because of the visible homelessness/untreated addiction and mental illness.”
Have you been to Europe lately? On our last trip pre-pandemic, I was struck by how there were homelessness camps in mid-size cities all over France, very similar to the situation here. It’s an international issue.
And everytime I go downtown, I look around for the horrible state I read about in social media. What I see is a much more vibrant downtown than 10 years ago- lots more people, lots more energy. Yes, there are some unpleasant (and worse) situations for some, but it’s not the majority. It’s a city (finally!). Most of the <45 folks I know think that downtown has improved massively in the past 5-8 years. Despite all the challenges of COVID.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2021/11/22/do-property-assessments-have-a-bias/
Rush: You might be right but I learned a long time ago to stay away from people who are house hunting. I have learned to nod and mumble whenever the topic comes up. Frankly who I do feel sorry for is the young family on a really limited budget. In some ways Victoria has always aspired to be a big city; well it has at last gotten big city prices.
How many think that this is the new normal for Victoria?
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I think its pretty normal not to have a huge selection of homes at the end of the year, although we did end of finding our new home last year around this time and sold our existing home over xmas just before the market took off in the new year. I have at least two friends with young children looking in the 2-3MM range and they confirm there’s not much out there that interests them at the moment.
Barrister i just checked houses in Victoria between 2 and 4 million and there are lots of beautiful homes. If your friends can’t find a home for that here then they are probably looking for 8 million dollar homes that are selling for 4 million in which case they need to check the market we are in.
I guess turning this into a bicycle blog makes sense since most people here can no longer afford to buy a home. Friends are looking at houses here and even with a budget of three to four there is not a lot to look at,
How many think that this is the new normal for Victoria?
Definitely did not make that point, which is a ridiculous one. And my response was to James’ post, not yours which I did not see until after posting the response.
My point was that the history of cycling in Europe is different, their cities developed differently, their climate is different than much of Canada, and our cities are built around cars and suburbs are a thing.
My main point is that I have zero desire to hang out in downtown like I would in a European centre because of the visible homelessness/untreated addiction and mental illness.
I am also in favour of bike lines and small walkable neighbourhoods. I don’t have a strong opinion on the ones here because I don’t go downtown on a bike, or at all.
The real problem is not the thousands of people killed by cars every year, it’s the fact that someone may be scared by a bicycle bell.
I’ve read much of the research, nowhere does it say Europeans are some different type of human more naturally apt to cycle which is the point you seem to be making here. Instead it emphasizes that they prioritized safe bike infrastructure and they got a big shift to cycling as in the examples I gave. They didn’t return to what was there before, they built entirely new infrastructure to safely support both vehicles and pedestrians/cyclists. Their history with motor vehicles is just as long as ours. Yes many of their cities were designed pre-car, but that’s why our cities are now densifying and repurposing road space from vehicles to pedestrians to achieve the same results.
The outcomes depend on the policies we put in place and it is very clearly possible to create mode shift from vehicles to active transportation by changing those policies to make active transportation safe, convenient, cheap, and practical. It’s being done right now in lots of North American cities. Part of that is safe infrastructure, part of that is allowing 15 minute neighbourhoods to be built where vehicles are not required.
It’s possible. University Heights was just approved and will now have nearly 600 homes on top of the commercial. Instant pedestrian oriented community and pedestrian upgrades around the site will enable more people to get there to access those services without a car. I’m looking forward to it as the new bike lanes will allow us to ride there which previously would be a death sentence on Shelbourne.
Big part of it is reforming zoning to allow retail back into residential neighbourhoods, and enable the density to support it.
“They used the showers at work and then put on a suit.”
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I wonder how many people will actually be wearing suits when people return to the office, I don’t know too many people who wear suits anymore, even at the higher ranks.
New York is another great example, a bit closer to home. There are plenty of articles out there describing how many parts of NY went from being filthy and dangerous in the 1970s (for all sorts of reasons, including traffic) and are now being completely reinvigorated thanks to new planning; with cycling being a key part of the strategy.
But all of these places were ‘great’ (or at least planned and developed) before the automobile, so it was easier to go ‘back’ to cyclists (maybe) and pedestrians (definitely). I think the 21st century planning challenge is how to transform places like Gordon Head or View Royal into medium density, bikeable and transit-oriented communities with accessible commercial centres. Not just crappy malls (strip or otherwise) and car traffic everywhere. Incremental change from SFH to towhnouses won’t suddenly turn Mackenzie into Park Avenue.
While you’d certainly get sweaty cycling in from the Westshore to downtown, with e-bikes you can easily control how much exertion you can do on your commute in, and save your cardio workout for the way home.
And large parts of Victoria, Oak Bay, Saanich and Esquimalt are within a distance that even I, as a middle aged out-of-shape cyclist, don’t get too sweaty on my ride downtown.
Clearly it’s not for everyone, but for those that can, it removes a lot of vehicles from the road that you’d have to wait behind while commuting in your car.
“I can’t imagine many workplaces have showers for employees to use every morning, quite the luxury.”
Hardly a luxury. Every office I’ve worked at has facilities, and a lock up area.
“Bike lanes never take you from door to door, at some point most routes require interaction with crazy drivers in love with cyclists.”
Neither does your car. At some point, you have to get out and walk. Being a pedestrian in this town can be dangerous too.
James Soper- I can’t imagine many workplaces have showers for employees to use every morning, quite the luxury. Bike lanes never take you from door to door, at some point most routes require interaction with crazy drivers in love with cyclists.
Can we combine two popular topics and discuss whether bike lanes and scofflaw cyclists were behind the recent flooding?
Doesn’t seem worth the time to reply, but, anyway, you will note that I said the reasons were “in part”. That is because there are many factors at play and I mentioned two of them and they have a long history of bike use that is different than ours.
Before WWII, cycling was the predominant method of transport in the Netherlands – it is flat and small and doesn’t have Canada’s weather. Cars became popular in the 1950s/60s and vehicle deaths skyrocketed because, in part, of the lack of infrastructure for these vehicles. The Netherlands adopted a bike strategy that included bike infrastructure build out. It was easy to turn the Dutch back to cycling, unlike in Canada where the car culture took over at the turn of the century, and bicycles were viewed as for children, and infrastructure was built up and around the vehicle and suburbs became a thing, contributing to high home ownership rates.
Cost of car ownership in the Netherlands
https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/financial-models/europe/features/netherlands-most-expensive-eu-country-own-and-use-car?a=SSC01&t%5B0%5D=LeasePlan&t%5B1%5D=Fuel&t%5B2%5D=Finance&t%5B3%5D=Mobility%20budget&t%5B4%5D=Diesel&curl=1
Bike/car issues in Europe are a popular study topic. Instead of arguing with me may I highly recommend you take it up with google?
I’ve only been to the Netherlands a few times but whenever I’ve biked there it is pretty damn flat.
Yes, and that should be.a warning to us. As Paris is now dangerous for pedestrians, due to the bikes and e-scooters. This is according to France 24, which is a Paris based, government owned like the CBC ,leftist and eco-friendly, and would be expected be supportive.
Let this France24 article explain the nightmare of bikes and e-scooters to you…. “ life for Parisian pedestrians has become hell.”
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210909-paris-gets-mediocre-walkability-grade-over-reckless-bike-e-scooter-riders
“If you think a stroll along the car-free banks of the Seine is the perfect way to spend a tranquil afternoon in Paris, think again.
With the city’s 15,000 free-floating e-scooters on the prowl, and cyclists nearing the one-million mark, a Paris stroll has now become a hazardous balancing act for pedestrians trying to dodge screeching wheels and aggressive bicycle bells.
“Indeed, the city of Paris is not very pleasant for pedestrians,” says Anne Faure, head of the advocacy group Rue de l’Avenir.
“For a few years now, the city of Paris has done a lot of work to accommodate bicycles, which is of course a good thing because it was very much behind other European cities when it comes to that. But it has created conflicts over the use of car-free zones, especially for pedestrians,” Faure told FRANCE 24.
“Pedestrians aren’t very happy because they feel that bicycles are taking up a lot of public space,” she added, pointing to City Hall’s enormous push to make Paris more pedal-friendly, adding thousands of new bike-lanes and expanding the availability of rent-as-you-go bicycles in recent years.. “Cars have learned to stop at a red-light,” he wrote. “But with e-scooters on the pavements and bikes disrespecting all types of traffic rules, life for Parisian pedestrians has become hell.”
They most certainly did and are. The reason we see tons of cycling in cities like Amsterdam is because they decided to make it that way.
https://www.fastcompany.com/3052699/these-historical-photos-show-how-amsterdam-turned-itself-into-a-bike-riders-paradise
Paris is doing it right now: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/12/28/how-bike-lanes-are-transforming-paris/?sh=3e662922f620
Literally all of the execs at my work biked before Covid.
They used the showers at work and then put on a suit.
The reason I started biking to work instead of using the bus was that an exec at Custom House Currency Exchange convinced me to do it, since they did every day.
That’s nonsense. Just look at the history of biking in the Netherlands in the 70s. It’s taken them 50 years to get to the point they are at now. Check Paris until the last 6 years. There’s a couple of big car companies that you may have heard of based over in Europe too… you know, where the car was invented.
This is only true where they’ve actually put money into it. We had intercity transit here as well, in Victoria, trams on rails out to oak bay for instance, they took them out.
Definitely. However, the transition from what we have to that is not going to happen with the current state of downtown. We already have a couple of areas like this – Market Square and Bastion Court. Visible homelessness and drug addiction take the fun out of a coffee downtown for me. Why would I head downtown rather than Oak Bay Avenue , Estevan or Cook Street Village?
I’m in favour of bike lanes. We are not Europe though. I think the difference is, in part, is that they never transitioned from vehicles to bikes. BIkes always made sense and became the cultural norm because of the cost to operate and own vehicles and the old infrastructure making inner city transit and parking much more difficult. Bike infrastructure in Europe is also so much more developed. I think climate change has a chance of causing this here when individually owned vehicle use becomes restricted in future.
Agreed. I blame the federal government. Since this nonsense is Canada-wide, and due to mortgage interest rates of 1% when inflation is 6%, the government/BOC should be raising interest rates to cool things off. They’ve been pouring gas on a fire, which is now out of control. The least they can do is start hosing it down.
Condo market is off the rails now….
101 – 150 Nursery Hill sold November 2015 for $283,000….just went in a bidding war yesterday $650,500. It blew by even doubling in price.
Nice. Leo, you have us “spoiled rotten” here on HHV with these great articles.
“I rarely ride a bike on city streets, it’s just too dangerous.”
Which is why bike lanes are important.
“I can’t see a professional, well dressed executive wanting to sweat their way to work.”
The key is to change into your work clothes at the office.
“Bike lanes have eaten up a lot of parking spaces vital to business activity.”
4,000 city-owned parking spaces isn’t enough?
One of the things I enjoy most about Europe are all the car free pedestrian squares/streets.
I prefer electric scooters instead of bicycles on city streets for the simple fact that most are capable of maintaining close to the speed limit and keep pace with traffic. I rarely ride a bike on city streets, it’s just too dangerous. Cycling is great exercise and a healthy form of recreation on designated trails. I can’t see a professional, well dressed executive wanting to sweat their way to work. Bike lanes have eaten up a lot of parking spaces vital to business activity. Put in enough bike lanes and there will be nothing to bike to.
Why should parking be cheap though? Especially when the land value is so high.
Properly done, bike lanes actually do translate into more cycling commuting, as seen in most european countries who’ve actually put real effort into it (Denmark, Netherlands), or even just cities (Munster, Paris in the last 6 years has had an over doubling in the # of bike trips).
The mountain of bikes picture is from a failed docked bike company (Ofo), compared to the mountain of cars over by the bay street bridge that regularly catches fire.
Monday numbers:
Sales: 444 (down 23% from last year)
New lists: 484 (down 23%)
Inventory: 954 (unchanged from last week, down 52% from last year)
New post tonight on the topic of BC assessments.
Do some research for me which I won’t believe anyhow because you are a dirty no good communist……
I understand that you are pro tax socialist with the notion that tax will solve everything, but please find me the low income stats for driving and the rest of living cost balance for low income family as well as family that earn $64,665 a year. And, if you can’t then it just go to show that the rich are living off the back of the poor people through their pseudo green taxes.
2008 Canadian Vehicle Survey Update Report, indicated that annual distance travelled by light vehicles by jurisdiction for Canada average is 15,200 km. BC at 13,100 km and fuel consumption rate is at 11.0 l/100m. So for BC it would be $143.52 a year in additional costs due to direct carbon tax on fuel costs, not factoring in all others added costs to good and services. And the costs would be more in other provinces since they drives more than BCers. The average household in BC own 1.47 cars would push the price of carbon tax on a family greater than $168 per year even if they have efficient 2021 cars when X1.47.
Natural Natural Resources Canada — https://tinyurl.com/49pumbwr
Canada Energy Regulator — Market Snapshot: How does Canada rank in terms of vehicle fuel economy? — https://tinyurl.com/2zua74ry
Low income families drive less than average, not more. Your figure is 17,000km/year in a not very efficient car. You’re just making up stuff to match your pre-conceived notion.
There have been plenty of proper studies on various implementations of the carbon tax in Canada, they are progressive taxes. The wealthiest emit the most carbon per capita and pay the most carbon tax while getting no rebates. That gets distributed in rebates to the lower income families.
$1.5M
Does anyone know what 3945 Dawe Rd sold for?
Carbon tax on the average vehicle consumption per year is roughly $167.87 not factoring in low income family tend to drives older inefficient cars, and it would be twice that if there are 2 working low income parents.
An increase of 3% on food cost due to carbon tax would cost the average family more than $300 per year.
And, then we also have to factor in the cost of clothing, personal needs, and shelter.
So the math indicated that it will cost a low income family at least $468 per year minus rebate, and that not factoring in costs of more than one inefficient vehicle, or increased costs of carbon tax on clothing, personal needs, and shelter. The rebate will also be on a siding scale if the family income is greater than $42,165 to $59,565~64,665, and they will be SOL if income is greater than $59,565~64,665.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/sims-b-c-emissions-going-up-despite-carbon-tax
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/income-taxes/personal/credits/climate-action
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/taxes/sales-taxes/publications/mft-ct-005-tax-rates-fuels.pdf
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-getting-to-the-real-cost-of-cheap-groceries/
$987,500
Nope, they would get $348, and $387 next year.
That’s the equivalent of the carbon tax on 3493L of gas.
It always look great from our ivory tower. Unless the majority of the population are poor or from developing/third world countries. It is not as obvious in wealthy nations such as Canada, but rest assured that it is affecting many low income families through increase of goods and services.
Carbon Taxes & Rebates Explained (Province by Province) — https://tinyurl.com/efaj9wpv
A family of a single mother and child would get $199 yearly from the rebate isn’t going to cover the increase cost of transportation, food, clothing and shelter. And, just imagine if the single mom have 2 or 3 kids, or a family that get nothing with an income of $62,115.
The opposite actually. Low income folks get more in rebates than they pay in carbon tax.
Carbon tax is a tax on the poor, because it increases transportation costs, essential products, services, and groceries. And, so far carbon tax hasn’t demonstrate that it reduce fuel usage except for transferring wealth from the poor to the rich that lives off incentives and rebates like Elon Musk and so called green corporations.
The only thing so far that prevent people from driving into downtown as demonstrated by some European countries are expensive parking. While bike lanes is a novel idea but that doesn’t translate to more cycling commute as seen in China where gasoline costs outstrip the average citizen salary.
Bicycle Kingdom — https://tinyurl.com/553uedpn
China 100 km traffic jam that lasted 10 days — https://tinyurl.com/rjet6ff9
Would anyone be able to post what 882 Pepin Cres sold for?
He must just be having fun. Either that or he doesn’t know how to operate his pumps. They have lots of options to limit those pumps by liters or $.
Bike lanes is a separate issue than climate change. But the government is the one that has connected them. Here’s a quote from Lisa Helps, as she accepts an “envoirnmenta award” from the NDP govt and talks about the bike lanes. “ When complete, the 32km [bike lane] network is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 10,000 tonnes per year.” And the presenter from the provincial government tells her “ “Local government has consistently demonstrated true leadership year after year, and this will be crucial to help us reach our new climate targets.” https://www.vicnews.com/news/city-of-victoria-wins-environmental-award-for-contentious-bike-lanes/
So we are told by the BC Minister of Envoirnment that the bike lanes are crucial in helping us reach our new climate targets, as he hands Lisa Helps an award. So they are definitely selling this bike lane idea as something to fight climate change. Which makes it fair game for people like me to point out that it would be better “for the planet” to get a full time EV than just using your ICE car less by riding your bike sometimes.
A beautiful thing happened at the gas station just now. A guy is filling up his Volkswagen sedan when a voice intones over the PA system: “Sir, the limit is 30 litres. Please stop filling your vehicle NOW.”
I remember reading somewhere that one reason the City of Duncan came to be was that business owners in Duncan (then called Alderlea) wanted sidewalks built, which North Cowichan thought was stupid.
Now, nobody thinks twice about sidewalks. Build a new neighborhood, road, commercial area, you put in some god damned sidewalks.
Hopefully some day bike lanes will be like that.
I was actually thinking about people who drive pickups as personal vehicles, who increasingly outnumber those who use them for work.
Just came back from a bike ride to hillside mall Cdn tire to pick up a couple of items, parking lot jammed and maybe 6 bikes in the rack, beautiful day, surely many of these people could have walked or ridden a bike especially with gas shortage. I guess it will take a higher carbon tax for people to reconsider their transportation choice. The funny thing is I guarantee you if you actually managed to convince some of those people who drove to ride their bike to the store, most likely less then 5km, many of them would have commented on how much they enjoyed it.
Oh and on the way back through a residential neighbourhood behind Lansdowne school a large pick up truck turns the corner onto the wrong side of the street and almost runs into me and then gives me the finger, this unfortunately is not unusual behaviour from a truck driver.
The bike lanes are the best and should be top priority; how else can you take in the culture of the city in slow motion. You take the family out for ride and you can see a person defecate to your left while someone shoots up to your right. The best part is that you get to engage directly with community when you are stopped at intersections and be screamed at and have money demanded from you without separation from the “vulnerable person”. You will get a chance to see a fist fight, a robbery and if you’re lucky, even a stabbing. The absolute best part is on those snowy days when you really want to ride, you can count on the bike lanes being plowed before any sidewalk or road.
“Because “saving the planet” isn’t one of the reasons for them to ride a bike.”
That was never my primary motivation. It’s about the path of least resistance and saving money.
I could spend 15 minutes driving my tired ass to work downtown and $16 a day to park, or spend 15 minutes biking on a mostly flat, separated bike route where I don’t have to worry about getting doored or crushed under the wheels of a Dodge Ram.
If the bike infrastructure wasn’t there, I probably wouldn’t ride because I’m not a dyed in the wool save the planet person.
Patriotz: It is possible that you are dealing in stero types. A lot of the pick up people I have known work pretty hard manual labour jobs.Many of the Tesla people have computor jobs and while many of them have gym memberships a lot of the ones I know are ready to qualify for the biggest loser.
I am really uncomfortable in dividing people that way in terms of fitness.
ISTM that a Tesla driver is more likely to be fitness oriented than a F150 driver, but maybe I’m just dealing in stereotypes.
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I can guarantee you that truck drivers or way more likely to try and run a cyclist off the road then a Tesla driver
If you read my posts you’ll see that I am advocating pedestrian only areas of the city (pedestrianisation) These are very healthy and social areas. No cars means fresher air, with everyone walking and exercising. In Europe many cities have a old town area that is blocked to traffic. And it’s a wonderful area to walk around. Victoria should create a similar area in downtown Victoria.
How about saving your body? I just don’t see the logic here. ISTM that a Tesla driver is more likely to be fitness oriented than a F150 driver, but maybe I’m just dealing in stereotypes.
If someone drives an EV car, it’s a much harder sell to convince them that they should ride a bike, and welcome lots of bike lanes. Because “saving the planet” isn’t one of the reasons for them to ride a bike. The successful cities I’ve seen have closed streets completely, creating wonderful walking/outdoor dining/ commerce areas (like Grafton street in Dublin Ireland, or a Florence Italy). It’s nice they did that to a tiny stretch of government street, but they should do more.
These hybrid bike lane streets aren’t ”jewels” and “people magnets” like a closed-to -traffic road.
Fortunately, there is a movement worldwide to convert downtown streets to pedestrians only. Converting a street or an area to pedestrian-only use is called pedestrianisation , and it was started in the Renaissance (e.g, Florence has many closed streets) . Some of them allow limited car or bike traffic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedestrian_zone . This would mean an end to bike lanes in the affected streets, but people would welcome the fresher air (less Nitrogen gas to breathe) walking around the streets with NO cars, not LESS cars.
Paradise lost? Why I’m questioning life as a B.C. resident
https://docdro.id/g30jMrS
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-paradise-lost-why-im-questioning-life-as-a-bc-resident/
At 0.95, Greater Victoria has the lowest birth rate in Canada
… Greater Victoria is the only metropolitan area in Canada where the fertility rate — the number of babies a woman will have during her child-bearing years — has fallen below one.
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/jack-knox-at-095-greater-victoria-has-the-lowest-birth-rate-in-canada-4781366
Not even remotely
Not actually a conspiracy.
More space for bikes and pedestrians means less space for cars. Every city that has successfully made the shift from car oriented to pedestrian oriented has done the same thing
I will put more km on my bike vs car in a year 12k vs 8k, most driving is done for kids sports and activities, given the choice I would much rather ride my bike or run for most of my errands most anywhere in Victoria vs driving a car, in most cases it’s just as fast or faster and way more fun
How many people driving electric vehicles or riding a bike rely on delivery trucks to bring hundreds of purchases to their residence from Amazon? Kind of defeats the purpose.
Can we get off the bike lane debate.
“The best cities are walkable and bikeable”
Totally agree.
The worst cities weaponize bike lanes to destroy efficient vehicular traffic flow, reduce the number of lanes and parking spots, and corrupt former free-flowing routes into the center. In our lovely town dogma defeats rationality at every encounter.
??? I think you misinterpreted my comment bud. I’m not lecturing anyone on when they should be biking or driving.
AAA bike lanes are a must for any modern city. That’s entirely separate from the issue of climate change. The best cities are walkable and bikeable
Since you’ve seen fit to lecture us about when we should be biking vs driving, it seems fair to ask you if you “talk the walk” on this subject.
Specifically, you’ve said that you drive sometimes. Now, do you drive an electric car? And if not, can i give a “crazy thought” back to you, and tell you to get an electric car, and just drive your bike exclusively unti you do?
This is a bit off topic but I keep hearing people say that new homes being built in Victoria are of shoddy quality. I recently bought one in Colwood and am curious if anyone has any insight into what this means. I’ve been watching my house get built and it looks pretty good.
Here’s a crazy thought for you anti-bike lane people. Just because you have registered a vehicle doesn’t mean you don’t also own a bike. For example, I have a car. I also have a bike. Sometimes I drive the car places. I also ride the bike places; especially downtown where the bike lanes make it so easy.
OK, and a Median condo is $545K, which is close to $482k. If you like, feel free to substitute $482k in my calculations as what someone with a $100k income can pass a stress test with, and allows them buy a slightly below median priced ($482k) condo. They’d be smarter to buy that condo, with a $1,500 mortgage payment (85% of which is equity “forced savings” payment ), instead of renting a similar condo for $1,800 per month.
Strata fees at 325/month and property tax at 200/month reduce affordability on your calculator to about 490k including the CMHC fee. Subtract the PTT and you are at 482k for a mortgage maximum provided you pass the stress test.
Yes. I guess that is why the stress test was instituted. Interest rates change.
OK, include those PTT (transfer tax $8K) and CMHC fee ($12k) as one time expenses, and then adjust what you can buy from $545k in my calculations to $525k, and all the numbers about incredible affordability stay the same .
The tool I’m using is the official federal government stress test calculator https://itools-ioutils.fcac-acfc.gc.ca/MQ-HQ/MQCalc-EAPHCalc-eng.aspx
Nothing is “missing” (as you put it) from that calculator. The PTT and CMHC fees are one time payments, which don’t affect the stress test. They do reduce the down payment amount, so you enter the lower down payment in that calculator.
Well sure, enter those monthly payments in the field for “other monthly debt payments” in the calculator.
Remember, my calculations are to buy the MEDIAN price condo, not the LOWEST price condo. For someone with a sad story of low income, huge student debts, low down payment – they are not shut out of everything – they still may be able to buy the almost 50% of condos that sell at a price BELOW the median price.
And Langford with little to no bike lanes have the largest population growth in the CRD sport the greatest drop. While Victoria and Esquimalt went out of their way to implement bike lanes and traffics calming policies saw an increased in car registration.
What more surprising is that the old farts in Oakbay are giving up their cars, and despite the difficult and sparse/distances the Highlands, Sooke, N. & E. Saanich, and Metchosin people are giving up their vehicles.
I think the graph is meant to show there is a drop in vehicles registration, and it clearly shown that Victoria and Esquimalt are not doing their part.
On a side note, BC population in the same period grew and additional 6.7% and vehicles weighing less than 4,500 kgs registration increased by 8.9%.
Yes, but the strata, CMHC fee and PTT need to be accounted for – and these seem to be missing from the tool you are using and likely account for the difference between our final numbers.
The answer may be to speak with your lender. We went through the qualification process last year and it is pretty detailed these days.
The average post-sec student also graduates with 26k in student loans so those come into play in the calculation for some younger buyers as well.
Right, there’s lots that go into the calculations. I used the government of Canada’s website, which is a website tool made by the federal government to see if you qualify https://itools-ioutils.fcac-acfc.gc.ca/MQ-HQ/MQCalc-EAPHCalc-eng.aspx
It has fields for various expenses such as debt payments, and I assume things like strata fees would go in there. So it’s going to be different for different situations. As I recall, people here on HH with about $100 k income have recently purchased $700k townhouses with 20% down, which would seem to exceed the maximum from the stress test, so they must have come up with creative ideas (co-signer, suite rental) or used a lender not subject to the stress test (credit union).
But passing the stress test is a different issue than affordability. Once the stress test is passed, a median condo ($545k) is incredibly affordable, because of low interest rates. Why don’t we see articles here about this golden age of affordability?
Just how incredibly affordable is it?? ….With 20% down, mortgage (1.0% variable) on a median condo ($545k) would be $1,650 per month and (on average over the 25 years) $1,460 per month of that is equity, and only $190 per month down the drain in mortgage interest (+$500/month or so prop tax and strata fees). And all the appreciation in condo prices accrues to them as equity. That’s unbelievably GOOD affordability, something I’ve been saying many times here Many people don’t agree , and declare homes as unaffordable, and keep paying $2,000 per month down the drain renting their median condo, making their landlord rich and happy. But there enough people who do get it, and that’s why there a frenzy of buyers creating multiple bids on everything for sale.
(1.0% variable rate https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/5-year/variable )
I was looking at two townhomes for sale in Langford. They both have the same square footage. A new one is up for sale at 2751 Celestial. Asking $799,600. 3 beds, 2 baths, small media room, tight double garage. Then there is one built a few years back but looks pretty much the same with the slant roofs etc. It is located at 826 Brock. Asking $620K 3 beds and 3 baths. Single car garage plus a parking pad. Brock in my mind is a much better deal. $180K difference. Brock has a playground nearby. It has quicker access to Victoria. It is a short walk with sidewalks to “downtown” Langford. There is a slight “cook street” feel to that area when you are strolling having trees and flower containers, sidewalks, coffee shops, library, restaurants, 2nd hand stores, computer shop, groceries and much more.
It also has the greatly coveted ensuite bath. People will eventually move just because they want an ensuite. Sure the finishes aren’t quite as modern but they are still very nice. Many would prefer those richer colored kitchen cabinets. In 10 years, there is a very good chance that the Brock townhome would have a better or at least an equal selling price than the one on Celestial.
I was thinking that as well Patriotz about some municipalities such as Langford has considerably more people under the age of 24 than Victoria. But then when you look, Langford has a very small percentage of seniors compared to most municipalities and many of those don’t drive anymore. I think it pretty well evens out.
Drove past the gas station at Oak Bay about twenty minutes ago and they had gas.
Thanks, I used an online calculator that came up with 400k for the mortgage with a 50k down payment – it may be incorrect – not sure as it doesn’t show the base calculations. Maybe it was using the posted rate but, at least in part, this was because of the CMHC insurance, strata fees, and PTT expenses that have to be accounted for in the affordability ratios. Then I looked online at realtor.ca for what 450k could get you. It is a one bedroom condo – or two if you are over 55 as the prices are a bit lower.
Cars per 1000 people can be misleading due to variation in the % of children across municipalities. Cars per 1000 adults would be more meaningful.
Just got gas this morning and the lineups are long and people are absolutely wired out there. Someone is going to end up in a fist fight. The guy running the gas station says that they will be out in a few hours,
The owner was actually there himself without any help. He figures he might just close down because it is too much hassle and he does not need to get into arguements.
The $100k income buyer would qualify for a median condo ($545k), which means they could purchase selecting from 50% of the condos sold (at current Nov 2021 prices).
We had a discussion about this in the forum comments section last month.
– Someone with $100k income could pass the stress test and qualify for a $600,000 home purchase (if they have a $100k down payment.
– With a smaller down payment ($50k), they’d qualify for a $500k purchase home.
Detail as of those calculations are seen in the government stress test calculator here
https://itools-ioutils.fcac-acfc.gc.ca/MQ-HQ/MQCalc-EAPHCalc-eng.aspx
Current (oct 2021) median condo price in Victoria is $545k https://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseFull.pdf
So that means that the $100k income buyer would be able to buy an average or below average condo, which would be 50% of all condos sold. This is why people with that level of income won’t be fleeing Victoria to “live in Kaslo BC” (population 998). They’ll be staying in Victoria, living in a condo (like many people in cities around the world do).
whoops
Any statistics out there comparing longevity of owners vs. renters?
Median net worth:
Owners: $685,400
Renters: $24,000
Median net worth of those reaching retirement age (55 to 64):
Owners: $952,100
Renters: $40,000
Sure, future RE returns may not be as high as previous, but it’s easy to see why people continue to go to great lengths to hitch their cart to homeownership rather than renting.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/201222/dq201222b-eng.htm
haha, Victoria is up, so much for the bike lanes.
Some surprising ordering of municipalities here but overall number of vehicles per person down somewhat essentially across the board
Even if house prices do not go up you are going to pay rent. Rent in this city just increased 20% in one year. Do your own calculations based on your own best guesses and comfort with rent instability – I like to use long term averages myself for return estimates and I use spreadsheets to keep track. Much better to have numbers to assess it rather than your feelings. YMMV
There is no doubt co-ownership can work, I know people doing it. If it is not for you, it’s not for you and, even more, you may not have to consider it because you are an owner already. Not everyone can move to Kaslo – which by the way is on a floodplain in large part.
I just got my house insurance notice and they have increased it by almost 10% and the city is talking about a tax increase of 3% on the mill rate but someone is telling us in Ottawa that inflation does not matter.
Introvert: There are things worse than death.
“Totoro,
About 400k. There are a bunch of qualifier tools online you can use to estimate and it depends what other debt you have. So the answer is not enough to buy a SFH unless you have a cosigner or co-owner – whether a spouse or someone else. The median economic family income in Victoria is about 90k. New buyers in the median range are priced out unless they have family help or consider a co-ownership arrangement. They can maybe get a one bedroom condo, a two bedroom if they are over 55.
~~~
that’s more or like a level 30( the highest salary the gov offers+ market adjustment or director/management leadership level of income with BCGOV. Unless they are independent contractors specialized in something else, they could go up to 150k-200k( thoses are in auditing specialist or legal counsel etc)
“You are only realizing this now?”
No, I remember feeling like we were in some trouble when we went through the process of buying a house last fall. Then the market went up another 30%. So let me rephrase: it seems that we are now completely fucked.
On BC ferries right now. We have moved seats three times to attempt to get away from loud self absorbed morons sharing their FaceTime conversations and videos with everyone. Was thinking… Wouldn’t it be great to share a home with them!?
“I view coownership as an excellent leveraged investment opportunity”
I think your view is wrong. It is not an “investment” of any kind, it is Hail Mary speculation on future gains in house prices. And not only is it leveraged, it is a leveraged vehicle in the hands of a group of people who would come to blows over splitting the bill and tip if they were to have a meal together at The Keg.
You are only realizing this now?
If a $50,000 per year entry level job in Victoria leaves you with the choice of a.) renting a room with a bunch of randos or b.) co-owing with a bunch of randos, then it seems we are in some trouble.
I would be putting my effort into finding employment that allows me to work from home full time, and moving the fuck outta here. Victoria is nice, but so is Kaslo.
About 400k. There are a bunch of qualifier tools online you can use to estimate and it depends what other debt you have. So the answer is not enough to buy a SFH unless you have a cosigner or co-owner – whether a spouse or someone else. The median economic family income in Victoria is about 90k. New buyers in the median range are priced out unless they have family help or consider a co-ownership arrangement. They can maybe get a one bedroom condo, a two bedroom if they are over 55.
It’s always an entertaining exercise to look back at old HHV comments and see what stuff was, at the time, characterized as “peak insanity” (or similar).
I fondly recall when $575K for a regular house in Saanich was once peak insanity!
If the most introverted of the co-owners was able to live in the house’s self-enclosed suite, problem solved.
I do not recall at any time predicting a ~40% price decline on this forum.
But speaking of the 80s, in fact I and another person were considering co-ownership as neither of us could buy on our own. The other person backed out and the market crashed shortly thereafter. And I could afford to buy on my own. In Vancouver.
Yes we are all biased by our own life experiences.
It’s not the first time patriotz has poo-pooed Kerry Gold — who seems to be doing little more than observing aspects of B.C. real estate and writing about it.
Perhaps any journalist who isn’t constantly warning about an 80s-style crash recurring is a cheerleader.
Divorce equates to death?
‘totoro
what’s the max mortgage amount for someone average in 100k per year? giving 10% or even 20% down?
If you don’t have 325K you’d go with TSFA and RSP with the down payment and rent. Totally fine idea because you don’t want to own more than you want to buy by yourself. Not everyone is in this boat.
I come from a background of poverty. I know how hard it is to climb out and I view coownership as an excellent leveraged investment opportunity. I think even if you don’t come from this background, the price of housing and rental alternatives will result in others viewing it as an opportunity as well in high priced markets like Victoria. Specifically younger first-time buyers with starting wages who are tired of rental instability, and end of working life folks with inadequate savings and a desire for a “home” in a nice climate. Personally, I’ve had some wonderful roommates and I’d be very choosy about finding someone for this arrangement – and look for a home that could be easily made into more private areas with separate bathrooms and perhaps a suite.
Once it becomes more mainstream, it is also something a group of parents might consider for their university student children as RSP savings can be used to pay for a accommodation as well. Our four university tenants pay a little less than a mortgage for a home as rent and are on their third year and staying a fourth. Had their parents purchased instead of renting (the parents pay the rent and are well off) they would have been able to pay for four years of university for their children easily from the house profits – or given the profits to their children to buy their first home with – with the exact same roommates as co-owners.
This is already a “thing” in Toronto. It is coming. If it is not for you count yourself lucky that you are not in a position where you are pushed to consider it. https://www.gocosolutions.com/
I’m sure co-ownership would work for a small number of people. I would not be one of them. If I could not reasonably afford a decent lifestyle in Victoria without co-owning, I would consider other alternatives including:
– Moving to a less expensive location, or
– Becoming a gypsy
$1.3/4 = $325k each….condo studio for me any day over this. If I couldn’t afford a studio condo I would take a gamble on TSFA/RRSPs with my downpayment over a co-ownership with three other people.
I always tell my kids to be prepared to do what it takes to have what you want.
If you buy a condo you will need to qualify for this on your own. If you are just starting out and earning $50k per year you are potentially going to qualify for a mortgage of 225k with 10% down. That will not buy you a condo. You will continue to need to rent – likely a room in order to save more over the next five years for a higher down payment but you will probably be priced out anyway at that point unless you find a spouse to buy with and have increased income.
If you have four co-owners all of a sudden you can buy a house for a million dollars right now. If the house appreciates the historical average, in five years your share of the tax-free equity will be $100k plus 1/4 of the amount paid down on the mortgage or an additional $35k – plus the return of your down payment of 25k. And your carrying costs for the mortgage would have been less than $1000/month for the five year period allowing you to save more for your condo purchase to live alone now if you wish and can now afford.
The same applies to those at the end of their working life who do not have enough saved to buy a condo in Victoria. A much better option for someone who wants a garden and companionship.
As a confirmed introvert, co-ownership sounds like my worst nightmare. I would take a condo 100 times out of 100 over co-living with strangers in a single family home. Having said that, it could be an ideal arrangement for polyamorous couples and swingers.
Or a completely rational response to market conditions. I think I first brought this up eight years ago on this site and you had the same response. And at that time you were also warning about an 80s crash.
The thing is that none of us know the future so there is only the deal of the day. You can’t really wait because you don’t have forever.
This is not like marriage because a bank is going to want to see a legal coownership agreement in place before they will lend. The agreement will spell out in clear terms what happens if one party wants out, what rights there are to rent/sublet, and how the partners can deal with disputes. I would suggest this type of arrangement has better odds of successful conflict resolution in the event of breakdown than most marriages do simply because there is a written binding agreement in place at the start.
I would have no hesitation recommending this type of arrangement to my children with adequate planning, vetting and detailed discussions with the potential partners. Their generation is looking at a decade of rentals and roommates to try to save a down payment anyway – seems like a waste. I would have done it twenty years ago if I could have found likeminded people. At that time I couldn’t – I asked those who I knew and there was no online resource for prospective partners like there is now.
Except that I’m not actually arguing that climate change isn’t real. I’m saying it’s a cop out. Just like it was a cop out for the lack of salmon when they’ve put fish farms on the mouths of major rivers, and have dammed up everything as well. It’s a cop out for the forest fires in this province. Big commercial enterprises with a very significant monetary interest in it not being their fault, and continuing on, business as usual. It’s very easy to argue climate change is causing this, and shut everyone up saying otherwise by saying that they don’t believe in climate change.
Like marriage without the sex, but with just as much potential for a messy divorce. Peak insanity IMHO, but to each their own.
The writer is the Globe’s main RE cheerleader.
“as there is only one day of rain in the Victoria forecast until the end of November and that’s today!”
Forecasts beyond 7 days are almost useless. Even the European model, which is considered the gold standard of medium range forecasting, is only accurate about half the time by day 10. I wouldn’t put any stock in a forecast from Accuweather.
Barrister – there is a website where you can check out gas availability: https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/british-columbia/victoria
Co-ops were refilled. Most gas stations in Victoria are still out – one at Hillside/Lansdowne has gas. Look for the “no gas” icon under the name of the gas station – if it is not there there is gas.
Any idea as to the stae of gas at the stations, is it still an hour lineup?
Infrequent: Divorce typically has a real impact on the matrimonial home. In some cases were there are children, the wife and husband agree to not sell the matrimonial home (usually in exchange for reduced child support) until the children are grown. In most cases the divorcing parties need the capital out of the house in order to start again.
After practicing matrimonial law for thirty years I have come to suspect that many people spend more time researching a car to buy than in picking their spouse. I have to wonder if people would get on an airplane knowing that there is almost a fifty percent chance of you ending up burning to death in a flaming crash?
Definitely going to be a thing. Bet this realtor gets lots of inquiries: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-co-ownership-gains-traction-as-house-prices-keep-rising/
This is pretty normal and has been for a long time. Divorce is expensive and the income you use to qualify is halved and the higher income spouse will likely have to pay some support which reduces their ability to qualify for a mortgage. Divorce is one of the biggest risks when buying a home, but the home is probably still their biggest asset and they are better off than if they had rented.
Regarding the amount of rainfall. I remember when Dallas had a catastrophic storm, they estimated 35 trillion gallons of water fell on the state in one month, a staggering amount. I wonder if anyone can estimate this current event. Sure puts a different perspective on the power of Mother Nature. Too bad it comes when it is least needed.
It’s not the same highway any more. Rebuilt to Whistler for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Do note that north of Whistler continuing on Highway 99, there were serious damage.
How many bridges washed out on the Squamish highway? I remember when that was routine.
Storms aren’t what they used to be.
Have you forgotten about November 2006 in BC? I haven’t, and it was much worse than this – not even close. Vancouver had 150mm rain in 15 hours. Similar highway closures and mudslides. Vancouver water supply was declared unsafe to drink for 10 days. Total 350mm rain for the month. The month of November ended with -12 temp and 40cm of snow. And Victoria had even more rain than Vancouver that Nov 2006 – 352mm which was an all-time high record. https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=E578B454-1
Victoria is at 237mm rain now for November 2021. We would need 115 mm more to hit that 2006 total. https://victoria.weatherstats.ca/charts/rain-monthly.html
Will we have more rain in November and beat that November 2006 Victoria monthly rain record? Thankfully it doesn’t look like we will even come close, as there is only one day of rain in the Victoria forecast until the end of November and that’s today! https://www.accuweather.com/en/ca/victoria/v8w/november-weather/47163
Talking to a friend of mine I’ve learned of a side effect of the house price boom I hadn’t considered. His wife and he are splitting up and they’ll have to sell their house. Not because either of them can’t afford to make the house payments on their own post-divorce, but because the value has increased so much that neither can afford to buy the other out and re-qualify for the new loan amount. Bummer. Oh, and he is looking at rentals now and realizing the epically terrible state of that market as well.
Choose your husbands and wives carefully, people.
Thankfully I had a new roof put on my Ladysmith property this year. $10,000 well spent. Possibly saved tens of thousands in damage. Provided my tenants a secure shelter to weather the storm. Fingers crossed.
Leo, I think the point of the one day rain thing is that it is important to use our critical thinking skills when we are fed statitstics and sensationalized media stories.
If you want some actual rain records for a day in BC here they are. And they are around 300mm per day, which is 6 X what Victoria got, and 3X what Abbotsford got.
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/Canada/wettest.php
Amount of precipitation in one day
Date Place Inches Millimetres
Jan 26, 1984 McInnes Island, BC 12.6 319
Jan 14, 1961 Seymour Falls, BC 12.4 314
Nov 14, 1991 Mitchell Inlet, BC 12.1 306
Nov 11, 1990 Tahsis, BC 11.8 300
Nov 10, 1990 Seymour Falls, BC 11.8 300
And the condo north of a million in Sooke. I get it’s high end but it’s still Sooke. Granted 2400 sqft is quite the townhouse.
$46. It actually doesn’t look like these townhomes are attached. More like a bare land strata.
Last one sold for $953,000 in April, so north of $1M is realistic.
At least my backyard has a bit of a downward slope and is not flooded.
Totally offtopic but the whole one day rain thing is missing the point. First of all it crossed over 2 days, but much more importantly is total volume of water over the entire region. Other times we’ve seen more intense rain in one area, but the big issue is massive sustained rain over the entire region and the worst flooding is where it all came together.
If James has a slightly scorched look it was because he was standing In Lytton June 30th, telling anyone who would listen, “We’ve had fires like this before.”
This whole “we’ve seen rain like this before” argument is really starting to sound a lot like the “yeah well vaccinated people can still spread the virus too” type of talking point you hear from the freedumb crowd.
Back on topic – I see Westhills has it’s first (that I’ve seen) $1.1 million townhouse up for sale. Overreach to hopefully get $1 million or goes for around asking even with strata fees attached? Also, anyone know what the monthly strata fees are for those units? (2829 Meridian Ave)
Arguing over how much rain fell and whether it was a record is the least of our worries. It was still a significant event given the amount of destruction. This is not an easy fix, the destruction could trigger a recession that could last over a year. We’ve spent billions on the pandemic, money we need now to fix a more serious problem.
That is true in Victoria. There is a big difference between a flooded basement and a town underwater.
You need to look at the centers and roads experiencing disaster and analyze the cumulative causes, including not only one in 50 year events, but the one in 100 year rainfall events and how the water flows and from where, the intensity of rainfall, and the duration. It is not like the Coquihalla rainfall doesn’t end in a stream that flows downhill to another place like Merrit.
This means if you have 20 records for November 14, for example, and 17 are one day records and 3 are all-time records, there is going to be a cumulative effect downhill. How much rain falls in 24 hours also affects flood risk as absorption rates are impacted – more water goes downhill instead of being absorbed.
We’ve had wildfires. The ground is hydrophobic in many places. It goes faster when it gets to the bottom and dikes fail and pumps can’t keep up. Rivers flow downstream, gathers speed and debris, and floods its banks as other rivers join. To say we’ve had rain in Victoria like this before is true. To say that we’ve had rainfall like this before across BC with 20 record daily rainfall events in a 24 hour period after a wildfire season of the scale is dubious.
I do agree that forest practices affect flood risk. I just disagree with your statement that the flooding is not because of the rate of rainfall and is only due to forest practices and we’ve had “rain like this before”. Climate change is impacting how much water evaporates from the surface of the earth. This water is returned as rainfall in greater frequency and intensity as the climate warms.
And this is related to housing. Make sure you don’t buy in a flood plain and analyze your flood risk using 100 year events – they won’t be 100 year events going forward in all likelihood. You are not going to be able to get insurance in many cases.
It would be useful if this blog had a blocking mechanism.
It’s hilarious to look at some of the wetter months in places like Port Renfrew.
186.8mm, followed by 179.4mm followed by 116.6mm.
Not even a record, just a wet January.
Seen a couple around 200, a 220mm day. No big deal.
Henderson Lake on the Island looks like it gets multiple 200+mm days every year, and that was even true in the 30s.
https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=%7C&dlyRange=1922-11-01%7C1936-12-31&mlyRange=1922-01-01%7C1936-12-01&StationID=247&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2021&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=1&Day=1&txtStationName=henderson+lake&timeframe=2&Year=1935
Again, how much do you trust these reports when they’re own data indicates that it’s not “ever” in the “of all time” sense but “ever” limited to a certain time and place? Reporters who have no idea what they’re actually talking about misquoting Environment Canada, or visibly misquoting tweets that they’re linking to. This is aside from the fact that the rains triggered snowmelt, and were happening in areas that had ridiculous forest fires this summer (making the ground hydrophobic, as Totoro said). We’ve already shown using Environment Canada’s own data that the amount of rainfall isn’t unprecedented and that it’s certainly not close to double any one day rainfall record. Other than Hope specifically, we have had rainfalls in this range at least every decade, hell, Victoria had a rainfall that was nearly the same on the 28th of October this year (71.6mm vs. 72.6mm). Environment Canada being quoted as saying it’s a “50 year event”, which means that many people will see multiple events like this in their lifetime. As I said before, we’ve seen rain like this.
By the way, I’ve found an additional Hope station that has data back to the 30s (it was 700 meters away from the current Hope Station that recorded 17.1mm, 174mm, 103.5mm for a 3 day total of 294.6mm), and from December 1st-3rd 1975 it recorded 73.4mm, 142mm, 93.7mm for a 3 day total of 309.1mm. I’ll say it again, we’ve seen rain like this before.
Since certain rivers hit never before seen levels that suggests that the precipitation intensity may have been in some cases the highest ever seen. Which accords well with what Environment and Climate Change Canada is reported as saying.
Oddly, they actually have another station in the area (called Hope Slide) that recorded much less than 174/103, it recorded 112mm on the 14th, and only 23mm on the 15th, but 51.4mm on the 13th. That station actually has records that go back to 1975, and when you check December 1975, 1st had 69.9mm, 2nd had 133.4mm, and 3rd had 33.5mm, which are obviously higher than what we got at that station just a few days ago. I checked the longitude/latitude coordinates in google maps, the stations look like they’re about 17 km away from each other. Would be interesting to get historical data for the other location to actually compare.
How much do you trust the article really when it fucks up the first sentence?
Checks tweet that they’re quoting. Cumulative over the 13th-15th of November. Checks Env. Canada link courtesy of Totoro, 14th – 174mm, 15th- 103mm. Probably a daily record for that station since they’ve only been keeping records there since 2012.
None of this changes the fact that we’ve had rain like this before.
The difference in wildfires is due to logging practices in this province. We spray everything with round up every time there’s a fire to suppress aspen growth, a natural fire break species, but worthless for the forest industry. We plant monoculture GMO pine that can grow in ground soaked in round up. It’s the reason that the mountain pine beetle was so devastating. Not only that, we don’t allow small wildfires in wet seasons to burn tree stands, so we end up with massive pine forests that have literally evolved to encourage fire since that’s how they propagate. Since smaller trees aren’t weeded out by fire they grow bigger, pulling more ground water and making the landscape drier, so the only fires that happen are massive ones that we cannot control, and they then hit the old growth as well as the new growth trees.
We’ve created a province wide tinderbox with no natural firebreaks, and then blame the weather for sparking it. It’s insanitary, and it will continue because they have an easy out, climate change, something that we’re doing our “best” to curb (while having the largest coal export terminal in North America), but need the whole world’s help on.
Also https://pacificclimate.org/~fanslow/Nov_13th_AR_Storm_Total_Precip/#1/49/-116.
A pretty graphic depiction of the precip bullseye that hit the Fraser Valley
Slightly OT for this real estate board, but here is a great article on the recent weather event. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/11/weather-whiplash-in-canada-extreme-rains-hit-wildfire-devastated-british-columbia/.
Some of the records broken are in fact all time daily rainfall records but many are records for that day of the year.
The flooding and devastation appears to be directly linked to climate change but logging practices are also a contributing factor.
The areas subject to flooding in the interior have also been subject to wildfires which destabilize slopes like clear-cut logging does and makes the surface hydrophobic so water can’t be absorbed on its way down a slope.
In terms of why now and not before – the severity of the rains on November 12 were unprecedented in many areas like Chilliwack, Abbotsford and Hope and melted the snow pack, adding to the water coming down the mountains.
There is no disputing the severity of the rainfall/storm – it was a one in 50 year event in some areas and one in 100 year event in others.
There is also, imo, no disputing the cumulative impact of climate change:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-first-fire-now-floods-why-bc-is-trapped-in-a-world-of-climate-extremes/
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/100-year-event-bc-storm-anomalous
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/17/pacific-north-west-flooding-british-columbia-washington-state-canada
For Victoria’s Gonzales station, November 7th 1995 is the largest I could find, 93 mm of rain.
https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1994-02-01%7C2021-11-17&dlyRange=1973-01-01%7C2021-11-17&mlyRange=1972-01-01%7C2007-02-01&StationID=114&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2021&selRowPerPage=25&Line=11&searchMethod=contains&Month=11&Day=17&txtStationName=Victoria&timeframe=2&Year=1995
Highlands North though, there’s October 16th 2003 with 142
https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=%7C&dlyRange=1961-07-01%7C2012-01-12&mlyRange=1961-01-01%7C2007-02-01&StationID=116&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2021&selRowPerPage=25&Line=18&searchMethod=contains&Month=10&Day=17&txtStationName=Victoria&timeframe=2&Year=2003
Now I would really like to now if the record rain is actually a 24 hour record on a specific date or the most rain on any day ever, I am beginning to feel like I have to look carefully behind anything anyone says here.
What are you supposed to do when what they’re saying doesn’t match reality?
Maybe climate change exacerbates it, but it’s also the easy answer. One that BC can’t solve. The scientists in the article I linked to from the Guardian agree that it’s forest practices. So… are you casting doubt on these forest ecologists and holding on to the fact that flooding is due to climate change instead of forest practices?
First Month I check, October 1968 for Radium Hot Springs on the 6th they receive 10.7 mm of rain, shattering that supposed record of 8.8mm in 2016.
There we go. Logical.
Almost like we’ve had rain like this before.
Rich, good point.
Vancouver’s “record” rainfall this past Sunday (Nov 14) was 52.5mm in a day. But that appears to be the record “for a November 14”, which seems silly to call that a record. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/atmospheric-river-rainfall-records-bc
But there’s nothing specially high about that compared other years https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/Canada/BC/Vancouver/extreme-annual-vancouver-precipitation.php
For example, December 13, 2018 Vancouver had 67mm in a day. October 16,2003 had 85mm in a day.
But the record for Vancouver is March 09, 1900 , with 122.7mm in a day (more than double what they saw 4 days ago)
Of note in those Vancouver rain statistics was June 29, 1992, with 47.5mm. That’s about as much as they had 4 days ago, except it was June 29, and must have ruined a lot of outdoor events.
James, I think the records being broken mean the most rain on a particular day rather than the most rain in one day, ever. So the record amount of rain for November 14 but not most rain in any single day? I tried googling what the record for most rain in Victoria for a single day, but I wasn’t able to find anything. Anyone know?
Really? You are still casting doubt on the Environment Canada data and statements from its meteorologists nd holding on to the idea that “we’ve had rain like this before” and the flooding is due to forest practices rather than climate change?
There is plenty of excellent, reliable, scientific data available online at a click of a few keys to dispute this statement and to verify rainfall data – it is measured and recorded in many weather stations. I don’t need to tell you anything, you can check it yourself. https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/index_e.html
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset?organization=ec
Whether rainfall records were broken or not is indisputable. If you want to further explore the degree and extent and verify or dispute news reports just call up Environment Canada if you don’t want to look at data. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/contact.html
Climate change is happening. Weather and temperatures are going to get even more severe. There will be flooding and fires and storms in the future that will have all sorts of on the ground impacts beyond immediate devastation and will compound. When a fire burns a mountainside it is more vulnerable to mudslides in an atmospheric river event.
The time do what you can is now. Biggest impact things in order of impact are: 1. have fewer children 2. live car free 3. avoid one transatlantic flight 4. buy green energy 5. use a more efficient car 6. switch from an electric car to car-free 7. switch to a plant based diet
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541
It’s not, just couldn’t find anything that said double where it actually made sense.
That sentence from your linked article doesn’t for instance.
Some of the other records make no sense either. You can’t tell me that Sparwood, a place that averages 70mm in some months had a previous record high of 12mm in a day. Same with Radium Hot Springs in Kootenay National park. Averages 84 mm in some months, and their old daily record was 8.8 mm? Hope, 34mm, really? Vancouver got over 200mm in the span of 3 days in the 30s when the Forum’s roof caved in, and yet their record is apparently 42mm. That’s not even mathematically possible.
Anyone know which if any gas stations have gas left?
I hope people realize the economic devastation our country may be facing due to the interruption of transportation of goods caused by the flooding and landslides. 70% of our imported goods comes in through Vancouver. Thousands of businesses will not have any inventory and be forced to close their doors. Our export industry will also be negatively affected, products the world desperately needs will not be able to reach the ports. Doesn’t look good for anyone. The current housing shortage just got a lot worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/magazine/real-estate-pandemic.html
There is no “US house’. There are only individual houses in local markets. It’s true that since WWII there has been only one decline in national average price – which the financial wizards thought was impossible, leading to the financial crisis – but local markets have been more cyclical (and out of sync). For example Seattle, and note this graph ends in 2005.
https://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/02/19/king-county-home-prices-1946-2007/
Google broken for you? There is a reason it was called an atmospheric river – more than 20 places in B.C. had rainfall records broken Sunday. https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/climate-and-environment/2021/11/15/1_5667300.html
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/atmospheric-river-rainfall-records-bc
Can you name a few places where that’s true?
Nope. Your linked graph doesn’t show that all. In the past 60 years
it shows three USA home ownership peaks.
But there was only one market price peak (in 2007) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
Yet none of these three home ownership peaks occured at the market price peak.
US house prices have been a one way ticket up, except for the single price peak in Feb 2007.
None of the three ownership peaks was accompanied by a price peak.
That’s not true. The rainfall was more than double the single day record in many flooded areas.
They were at an all time high in 2005 in the US, not equaled since. Home ownership levels tend to peak around market peaks and bottom around market bottoms. Why? The more people want to own, the higher prices get and the more stretched buyers there are.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
Aren’t they significantly lower in Victoria?
Love how it takes papers from out of country to point out the elephant in the room.
Everyone likes to say climate change, when the real problem has been obvious for a long time now.
Forest management absolutely fucks this province. Mono-culture forests because we spray it with round up and only plant pine, leads to issues like mountain pine beetles, massively bigger forest fires, and flooding/landslides. It’s not like we haven’t had rain like this before.
And yet we also experience net positive migration from other provinces and other places in our province. People are still coming to Victoria despite the lack of housing and we still need all types of workers to support the city, including lower paid workers who also need housing. If we don’t build massive amounts of affordable housing we are in for intense problems with middle class homelessness and spiraling visible homelessness and despair like we see in places like California, while those who are educated, young, bright and able will leave for places where home ownership is an option. If we don’t build it we will still experience the effects of the misery of homelessness, as is already apparent.
This means that my children might not be able to afford to stay. My answer is not to close the doors a, but to plan for this eventuality which was apparent more than a decade ago in my view – but this is not a realistic option for many unless they move to co-housing. I expect the situation to get even worse when the realities of climate change settle in peoples’ minds and they realize that Victoria is relatively sheltered from many of the impacts. The only thing that I see likely to change this is a big earthquake, and this will be a time-limited effect, although there are other more remote possibilities such as a deadlier pandemic or accelerated climate change effects and mandated measures to compensate.
And to be clear, Canada has no plans to restrict immigration to ease the pressure on housing markets. Plus 6/10 immigrants are accepted for their positive economic impact on Canada: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/infographics/immigration-economic-growth.html And many new immigrants provide the labour our aging society requires to function.
But you already know this so I am assuming that you are just posturing for the sake of supporting a position. Freedom of movement does not mean that your kids have an absolute right to live in the Uplands or even necessarly Victoria. No different than the fact I could never afford to live in Forest Hill or Rosedale back in Toronto.
Fair enough, Barristor. Expression of healthy boundaries in action.
Toro, of course people can move around within Canada if they want, but, there is a thing called “ZONING.” Zoning controls how much you can build. No one has a “right” to force zoning or building so they can move into another community. Saltspring Island zoned for a maximum of 10,000 about 30 years ago. Had they not done that, the Island would have been turned into a Disney theme park by developers with no connection to the place so they can pad their back accounts.
In a broader moral sense, this is also about “BOUNDARIES’.” Healthy boundaries are what establish healthy relationships between people in relationships and marriages and between communities. Just like in personal relationships, communities get to regulate their space.
There is reasonably priced housing in Langford and Sooke for middle and lower income earners. The reality is that the Metro Area for Victoria is expanding like it has for many cities. At some point salaries for lower income earners will have to increase but that is also the norm for a growing city.
There are no signs of the middle class “not functioning”. On the contrary, data on middle class home ownership and wealth point to them functioning very well. Especially so in Metro Victoria.
Home ownership levels are at or near record high in Canada, around 68% which includes many middle income. Middle class wealth (as measured by stats can by middle quintile assets) is also at record levels, and has been growing well above inflation as was pointed out in last weeks comment section discussion.
October terranet index up 0.7%. Victoria yoy price rise (17%) is now slightly above Canadian average (15%) and above Toronto (16%) and Vancouver (15%)
https://housepriceindex.ca/2021/11/october2021/
There is a very big difference between the most upscale parts of a metro being unaffordable to middle and low income earners and the whole metro being unaffordable. Every metro needs middle and low income earners to function and if you price them out you’re heading for social breakdown.
All the flooding will put more pressure on building supplies and available tradespeople. Doesn’t look good for increasing housing supply while months of rebuilding homes and businesses are in store. Not to mention the logistical nightmare.
Nice video Marko, enjoyed the commentary! Great call out on the hypocrisy of some of the NIMBY groups. At least this whole experience is teaching me to be more mindful of the needs of others… they’ll never make a NIMBY out of me after this!
Found a note on my car tonight, NIMBYism on my street -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvnvWR_rlH8
Not sure if this can get any dumber.
Totoro, if you want to effectively stop population growth simply turn off the immigration taps. Canada has almost no natural population growth, As for the city, if you dont build it they wont come.
But you already know this so I am assuming that you are just posturing for the sake of supporting a position. Freedom of movement does not mean that your kids have an absolute right to live in the Uplands or even necessarly Victoria. No different than the fact I could never afford to live in Forest Hill or Rosedale back in Toronto.
My kids are fifth generation – so what. Freedom of movement is a Charter right in Canada and 95% of Canadians are immigrants or descended from immigrants. How do you propose capping population growth?
$1,421,500
anyone know selling price on 1542 Athlone Drive?
It is an unfortunate thing, but cities need growth to have an economy otherwise it falls apart.
Actually my family has been here 5 generations. Generally it’s newbies with no ties to the city’s history that couldn’t care less about quality of life. Obviously you can’t grow the population forever. So, you should cap at something reasonable.
Obviously you weren’t around during the 80s to experience the dilapidated neighbourhoods throughout Victoria except for Oakbay/Uplands, Ten Mile Point, Arbutus, and Mt. Doug/Gordon Head.
It is an unfortunate thing, but cities need growth to have an economy otherwise it falls apart.
Why build more housing? Interest rates will be declining for two years and prices are sure to follow. Besides, Victoria is more beautiful being smaller.
The devastation across B.C. is extremely tragic. I can’t imagine how people directly affected are coping. Luckily our country is capable of recovering from such disasters. I’m sure the entire country will feel the affects of the disruption in transportation and supply chain. Hopefully, this event won’t trigger further hardships at a time when we don’t need anymore difficulties. I have the highest regard for the responders risking their lives in such a precarious situation. This is going to take months or years to rectify. Good luck everyone.
New Toronto-based company aims to make home ownership more attainable
Headline needs fixing. Schemes like this make housing more expensive.
I love walking through medium density mixed use neighbourhoods. I find them much more interesting and beautiful than single family only neighbourhoods as long as street trees are there. And they enable the nearby services so we don’t have to be so car dependent.
Maybe we don’t need to build more in the near future. Interest rates are going up the next couple of years. Demand will decline and so will house prices. Sure bureaucracy and building takes time. But better to keep Victoria beautiful.
Problem is the huge uncertainty at municipal level creates inefficiencies. You don’t know if it will take you 2 or 5 years, or if you will be able to rezone at all. Makes it difficult to line things up for various consultants/contractors/labour, etc.
For example, one of my friends is here in Victoria on a work visa from Croatia working for a local drywall company (the company just completed the rental building bordering Beacon Hill Park mentioned in the last thread). If I knew this project in Colwood I am trying to rezone would be rezoned in a year I would get five trades people (drywallers, tile installers, labour, etc.) here from Croatia on a work visa, house them, etc., and do the build out myself. Problem is I can’t do that because it could take 5 years to rezone, you just have no idea so difficult to prepare/be efficient.
Problem is our elected officials are a reflection of the people that elect them. Last few month I’ve spent a lot of time reading up comments regarding house on Reddit/Facebook, etc., and 90% of people are completely out to lunch.
You have a reporter that writes a story like this pertaining to denisty -> https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-half-duplex-presold-for-more-than-price-of-original-detached-home-at-2898000
and then you get people replying on Facebook with comments like “Yup… this is what out missing middle plan is going to look like.”
These Mary Street townhomes it is going to be same non-sense with members of the public asking the council “how are 900k-1.1 million townhomes affordable?” instead of asking questions like “why does it take years to get a few townhomes rezoned?”
and if the majority of people are that dumb how is anything going to change? It is like trying to argue anti-vaxxers, you get no where.
This is why after a 3 years of holding back on pre-sale purchases I am getting back into it. I don’t think there are enough Leos out there that understand what is going on to move things in the right direction. It is just going to be more money printing, more immigration, and severely restricted supply.
That is a valid point. Also, no issues selling an illegal basement suite home. Assuming you somehow won the lottery and none of the neighbours reported you building an illegal garden suite it would be extremely difficult to sell a home with a new, non-permitted, garden suite.
If you go through a 3 to 5 year rezoning process you can find out.
Cadborosaurus, city is not going to have anything and good luck with the warranty(s). The labour/install warranty at 10 years old, making a big assumption the company is still in business, good luck. The product warranty assuming you can prove it is the material and not an install issue they will send you a small piece of the material that then you’ll have to pay someone to install, assuming the product company is still in business.
If I was in your shoes I would put my efforts into finding anyone with expertise on metal roofs to come diagnose/fix. Some people I’ve dealth with that know metal roofs would be maybe Bryce Wray 250-588-9580 or Alfonso from Premier Roofing.
Caddy: Sorry to hear about the damage to your roof on your new house. Usually roofs and windows have transferable warranties. What about the vendor’s realtor? He may be able to help you. Usually, when a seller has put in a new hwt, new roof, windows etc their realtor tries to make those warranties available to prospective buyers. It is a good selling feature. I guess now, people are so desperate just to get a place that they don’t ask for these as much as they would normally. Hope it all goes well for you.
Marko: There are a few homes on Lovat off Cloverdale that have really deep lots. Good sized SFH’s could be built on the back of them. Maybe even one house being moved/torn down in order to have better access and build some townhomes. Does Saanich allow this? The existing homes appear to be built in the 30’s Pretty convenient area as well.
Here is the study on infill housing: https://www.victoria.ca/assets/Departments/Planning~Development/Community~Planning/Local~Area~Planning/Fairfield~Gonzales/Fairfield/Financial%20Analysis%20of%20Duplexes%20Houseplexes%20and%20Conversions.pdf
It was for Fairfield/Gonzales and concluded that most types of home conversions are financially unviable; and, higher density for-sale infill housing types do not result in significantly higher residual land values as compared to single-detached houses. The report notes that house conversions for added rental housing may be attractive to current owners, whether owner-occupiers or landlords, but not to developers/investors. It doesn’t specifically address garden suites.
An example of a development on freeze … In vic west an application was put in for some townhomes on 805-811 Mary St. in June 2020, which would bring some density close to the core and it has been stuck in hell with city hall as the city demands changes with bike racks and pathways. The current building is garbage along with a bunch of other homes in the area. At this rate it will take around 2-3 years to get things going.
The rate of building townhomes in the core is abysmal and the bureaucracy in Victoria is unbelievable. If anyone has a chance, listen to the council budget meetings and see how disorganized and crazy the people are running this city.
Looking for advice. Our roof leaked in the storm and the only roofer that was able to come out yesterday to look at it said “I haven’t worked on metal roofs” and left. The roof is around 10 years old, metal shingle, apparently not many companies do this type of roof. My realtor is trying to get info from the previous owner who would have had it installed but they’re not available.
I was under the impression that these roofs have a long life. Would any warranty on one transfer with a home sale? How would I go about locating who installed the roof without the details from the prev. Owner? Would the city have record, should I email every company, would they ghost me? I need it fixed asap, cannot do this one myself.
Any help is greatly appreciated I don’t know where else to ask, every company I called yesterday is so busy doing triage on the homes that have been damagedbut one said they’d be here in a couple days. I also don’t know if I should be getting a random company to provide an assessment if the original installer should be fixing this under a warranty. We have insurance but if there is an avenue with a warranty id obviously prefer to take it vs. pay a big deductable.
Thanks!
That was my conclusion. Not worth it for us for this reason – the hassle plus cost of hiring out the work. Also, a lot of people will put in a basement suite without going through the municipality. Totally inadvisable to try that with a garden suite.
Bureaucracy solutions to problems is usually more bureaucracy, so expect prices to go higher and new construction to continue to be outpaced by demand.
I don’t know how people are making these conclusions re getting money back on the garden suite with such small niche sample size (400 to 600 sq/ft garden suites in the COV mostly added to brand new construction homes). I think in certain scenarios like 1,000 sq/ft garden suite on a huge lot in the Swan Lake area you would definitively get your money back. Are you going to get it back with a 400 sq/ft suite on a 5,000 sq/ft lot in a prime location in Fairfield? Maybe not as it is eating up the yard and yard privacy on a luxury $2 million+ home.
There are way too many variables for a study to conclude one way or another. For example, 1,000 sq/ft garden suite is not going to cost double a 400 sq/ft to build, let alone 2.5x. However, 1,000 sq/ft on re-sale is huge as that can accommodate mom or dad coming in with a $500,000 down payment.
In my opinion it makes sense on a cash flow basis if you need to rent it and in a lot of scenarios you will get the money back on re-sale, especially going forward on larger garden suites that can accommodate family long term.
I think the problem is bureaucracy. People can re-finance 200-300k but then when they start looking into it at the municipality they realize it is a huge hassle. The bureaucracy also adds massive costs all over the place. For example, most owners are not comfortable writing the owner builder exam which then traps them into having to hire a licensed builder. Real life problem here is there are less and less licensed builders and a licensed builder is going to charge an arm and leg on a garden suite when their alternative is building custom or spec 3,000 sq/ft homes. 500 sq/ft garden suite is not going to be 1/6 the site visits of a 3,000 sq/ft home. You still need all the trades, you still need all the inspections, etc.
Ideally, for a garden suite you SHOULD be able to hire a competent framer who helps you out a bit with the drain tiles and then you just sub out everything else (licensed plumber, electrician, etc.)
or even better, you should be able to just crane one in, but the municipalities make that a headache as well. If you could crane one in for 200-300k with limited bureaucracy (and costs associated with the bureaucracy) and hassle in general you would see a lot more of them.
Typical email I receive….
I’d say a basement suite is worth borrowing for in most cases, but I’m not sure a garden suite is unless it is for family. It is not just about the interest payment, it is also about how much it increases house value vs. build cost and hassle. Basement suite is much less of a hassle.
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A friend of our sold a house last year with a 500 sq foot garden suite built about 10 years ago in the COV, cost then was around 90K and rent was 1.5K, he estimated it added about 200K to the sale price and replacement cost was maybe 150K. The problem with basement suites is not only do you share your house with a stranger but you also lose a big part of your house and end up living in 1000 to 1500 sq feet which may be fine for couple but not for most families