February Market Report
3.5% more days this February than last year, and nearly 35% higher sales. That makes sense right?
The trend of a strengthening market which started mid last year continued in February. It really doesn’t matter what metric you look at for single family homes (Greater Victoria only) , the market picked up as measured by all of them.
- Sales? Up 23%.
- Active Listings? Down 13%
- Days on market? Down 13% to 20 days
- Sales price discount from list? Down to 1.1% from 2.2%
- Months of inventory? Down to 4.0 from 5.3.
Over asks are particularly illustrative of what changed in February. Single family took off like a rocket, with more than one quarter selling over ask.
Condos are also substantially strengthened, in fact sales are up even more at 35% with days of market about the same as last year but inventory up 20%. You might be wondering how a 23% increase in single family, and a 35% increase in condos results in a 35% increase in all sales. Well for one thing townhouse sales are up 70% and there were some more sales captured from outside Greater Victoria area. Remember that the headline numbers that the VREB reports include a lot of sales that have very little relation to the Greater Victoria resale market.
The funny thing is though that set against all those strengthening numbers, seasonally adjusted sales have been dropping for a few months now and in fact have given up nearly all the gains from the latter half of 2019. 
How is that possible you ask? There’s a couple things at work here. Firstly, most of the positive year over year numbers are actually just because we were coming off such a weak base last February. Looking at the chart above you can see how weak the start of last year really was (high interest rates compounding the stress test and bad weather were to blame for that) so the big year over year pops aren’t nearly as meaningful as they appear.
However that’s not the full story. With all the signs in the market pointing up and the prevalence of bidding wars, I can’t actually believe that there’s a shortage of demand out there. I believe the issue is that the stress test is still in effect, and all that demand is concentrated in very narrow price bands. Just look at the distribution of sales versus inventory. More than half of the active inventory in the $600,000-$900,000 price range sold in February.
The difference from last year is even more stark when comparing months of inventory by price band. The high end of the market is actually slower than it was last year, but the lower end is twice as hot.
As I’ve said a few times, the market is highly bifurcated, with extreme activity in some areas while the higher end still languishes. That is causing some price compression with prices at the bottom being pushed upwards while the luxury end shows weakness. We have extreme inventory shortages in the price bands that locals have found themselves pushed into (by the stress test) while the high end suffers from a lack of moneyed out of town buyers. Vancouver has “recovered” in a similar way with activity concentrated under the $1M mark, so I don’t expect the rush of Vancouver buyers to return anytime soon.
Overall inventory reversed trend last month as relatively strong new listings (up 33% from last year) was sufficient to more than counter the increase in sales.
Looking at the broader picture of pricing, the positive trend continues for detached properties. Smoothed out over 12 months to bulldoze any seasonality, single family median prices have been increasing by about $2k/month which works out to an annualised rate of about 3%. Set against the previous slide in prices of the same rate, single family pricing basically hasn’t gone anywhere for 2 years. On the condo side prices are also edging up slightly at an annualised rate of about 2.5%.
My Take
The broader market is sending a lot of confusing signals right now. On the one hand the stock market melted down last week on news of the spreading plague. I can still see the COVID-19 situation going in either direction, either blowing over as no big deal in a few weeks or getting substantially more serious and causing prolonged human and economic problems. So far panic seems to be the name of the game, with bond yields plummeting, borders locked down, extreme shopping, and major economies almost certainly being tipped into recession in the first quarter (although the extreme shopping could help!). Meanwhile economic data already looked quite shaky at the end of 2019, with both US and Canadian growth showing weakness. The condo insurance situation continues to unfold, hitting the Shoal Point condos with a 300% increase in insurance premiums and steep increases in strata fees as a result. And I don’t put much faith in CMHC Housing Market Assessments but our house prices remain the only ones still classified as having a high degree of vulnerability.
On the other hand the real estate market has been gaining strength for 8 months, not just in Victoria but across the country. Sales are up, bidding wars are back, and our two year hiatus brought on by the stress test and the various provincial demand-suppressing measures seems to be over. It’s not quite as simple as that with some areas overheated while others remain cool but it’s clear that overall substantial demand has returned and local buyers aren’t thinking twice about anything I mentioned in the paragraph above. Our federal regular notes that credit growth is back as well as a growth in highly leveraged borrowers but in response they have announced they are making the stress test easier to pass by lowering the benchmark rates and giving borrowers ~5% more buying power starting in April.
It’s going to be an interesting year.
@ Ash
Doubtful, who is going to purchase or rent their current Alberta homes now? Also the days of high wages and huge benefits ergo lots of money to spend, have been gone for a while now. Might be a good time to buy in Alberta though.
@josh
We installed a Carrier heat pump, worked well for us and it does pay for itself over time.
Our home was in James Bay and we gained 400 sq ft and made an additional 375 sq ft useable. The last area already existed but it was of little use as I said it was very narrow with low ceiling on either side. All in all we ended up with two bedrooms and a bathroom in what was attic storage space.
I certainly have to decide if I’m finishing the attic first. All in one is a thought but then I have to deal with ducting. There’s so much to research that it might be worth it to get that EnerGuide inspection even if it wasn’t rebated.
That’s not what I’ve been reading. Expensive, yes but if installed in the right location it’s 1/3 or 1/4 the energy usage of a typical electric HWT.
@josh
We installed a Rennai water heater, the best decision we ever made. https://www.rinnai.ca/tankless-water-heater
We saved space and money and it was vented through the wall close to the heater not through the roof.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/09/modelling-the-morbid/
Payback for the gas price inquiry? 🙂
Fine. Long run return on mine was 7.5%/year, and that was after the first big drop. Time to buy more now that they’re on sale.
It’s been 10+ years since I’ve bought non-registered account stocks but with the CND banks pushing 5.5% + dividends I think I might buy a bit today.
I wonder how all of Garth’s “balanced” portfolios are doing??? 🙂
I agree with Leo S. People are going to staycation. My guess is that there is also a big drop of Canadian-based reservations at local hotels for the coming summer.
Stocks are on sale today. Triggered me to buy.
Oil is about 34 USD a barrel – yet gas is about $1.46 per litre. I recall gas being $1.33 per litre when it was nearly 150 USD a barrel.
Sunset industry or not, there’s no excuse to rip people off…Kind of a shame Canadians take this sort of nonsense lying down.
Does the oil price collapse mean another wave of inflow movement from Alberta to BC like we saw a few years ago?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-prices-1.5490535
Are there any mutual funds that invest exclusively in hand sanitizer and funeral homes?
Hard to say. Looks like the prairie provinces are fucked at this moment.
AirBnB bookings dropping could encourage some sales too, maybe down the line.
Last two weeks new condo listings: 185
Same weeks a year ago: 151
Up ~23%.
Single family new listings down a bit, overall basically the same as last year.
New condo listings are up over 50% in the past couple weeks!!!
I just used the realtor App to search for condo strata apartments listed for sale in the past two weeks. Wow!!! Lots of new listings!!!
160 new condo listings out of a total of about 425 total condo listings, quick mental math says that’s about a 55% increase in condo listings in the past couple weeks.
I don’t follow condos at all so I don’t know if it’s normal to have such a deluge of new condo listing at this time of the year or is this just normal for condo listings in the early spring when the blossoms pop.
My first thought was the strata property insurance scare is taking a toll on petrified owners who are trying to sell before a perceived condo collapse.
Does anyone have better information?
That’s certainly the Trump theory that more people will be staying home and boosting the local economy but I doubt it will play out that way. I suspect most people will just staycation instead. Either way tourism numbers will be way down this year.
Depends on the virus situation, it could very well die down over the summer and come back in the winter.
Aren’t we usually? 🙂
I think what the surveys about people living paycheque to paycheque are mostly concerned with is financial vulnerability to either reduced income or increased costs. How close to the edge are people living? I agree the methodology sucks and the results are basically unusable.
Net worth, even by quintile does not really tell us anything about financial vulnerability due to reduced incomes which is the primary risk from the coronavirus. That would require a more detailed examination of monthly commitments, liquid assets, and income.
Financial vulnerability of owners is really a secondary concern though. The US housing crash was first caused by buyers (aka renters) being pushed out of the market because prices simply got out of control. Only once the decline had gotten quite deep did owners start to get into trouble and compounded the decline. So stats that indicate renters are in precarious positions would also immediately affect the housing market because the market requires a constant stream of buyers.
However as I said before I don’t think that the coronavirus will reduce buyers confidence unless there is an actual lockdown like in China (now Italy), or there is a substantial jump in unemployment.
Trading in S&P Futures now halted, because they hit -5% down, which triggers the halt.
Oil price down 21% in one day to $32 US (biggest one day oil drop since 1991)
$61,000/12/120 = $42.36
$90,000/12/120 = $62.50
and I noted my unit is smaller than the building average.
Only ducted HPWH I’m aware of is the Sanden, which I use for both heat and hot water. It would be pretty hard to justify the cost for just HW (~5k). I would definitely investigate an all-in-one unit but keep in mind they’re scavenging heat from your house – so it’s possible that you’re just increasing your heating bill. Ideal location would be an unheated garage or basement area.
Uh, pretty sure the vast majority of units in that list are not designed for geothermal. Most are all-in-one with the HP sitting on top of the tank. Not sure of the COP on any of these units, but the Sanden is 3.5 to 5, so vastly more efficient with significant energy savings.
US Stock S&P futures down 4% for Monday. Oil down big to $33/barrel. gold up. CAD down big, to $.734.
According to China. Cause that is the country i trust to provide transparent and reliable data.
Even if it were true…. how did they get there? They quarantined 11 million people. Shut a whole city down. You see us being able to do that?
We havent even started to see the beginning of this in Canada or the US yet. Or is it truly different here?
Nobody is getting bailed out – the money will and should only go to health care and other measures to fight the virus.
The provincial Govt Health Care budget is $20bn, and that was before Coronavirus. If the virus ends up costing an extra 5%, that is still $1 billion extra costs, which goes straight to the deficit. It’s possible that its much more when all related costs are included. For example, one thousand people extra in ICU situation would cost about $3m per day which would be $1bn per year by itself.
So I don’t think the govt is going to be in a position to bail out groups like homeowners. Nor should they. All monies should be directed at health care to fight this.
We may be talking about different things, but statscan most definitely surveys these matters in detail and you can review their methodologies here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/12-587-x/12-587-x2003001-eng.pdf?st=0YAKm_4T
They publish the following:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/type/data?sourcecode=2620
Table: 11-10-0021-01 (formerly: CANSIM 205-0003)
Geography: Canada, Geographical region of Canada, Province or territory
Frequency: Occasional
Description:
Composition of assets (including Employer Pension Plans valued on a termination basis) and debts held by all family units, by net worth quintiles, Canada and provinces.
Release date: 2018-04-13
Survey of Financial Security (SFS), assets and debts held by economic family type, by age group, Canada, provinces and selected census metropolitan areas (CMAs)
Table: 11-10-0016-01 (formerly: CANSIM 205-0002)
Geography: Canada, Geographical region of Canada, Province or territory, Census metropolitan area
Frequency: Occasional
Description:
Assets and debts held by family units and by age groups, total amounts.
Release date: 2017-12-08
Survey of Financial Security (SFS), assets and debts by net worth quintile, Canada, provinces and selected census metropolitan areas (CMAs)
Table: 11-10-0049-01 (formerly: CANSIM 205-0004)
Geography: Canada, Geographical region of Canada, Province or territory, Census metropolitan area
Frequency: Occasional
Release date: 2017-12-08
Survey of Financial Security (SFS), assets and debts by after-tax income quintile, Canada, provinces and selected census metropolitan areas (CMAs)
Table: 11-10-0057-01 (formerly: CANSIM 205-0005)
Geography: Canada, Geographical region of Canada, Province or territory, Census metropolitan area
Frequency: Occasional
Summary: Indebtedness and Wealth Among Canadian Households
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2019003-eng.htm
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/other-reports/householddebt_june2018.pdf (referenced in statscan report)
Superintendent of bankruptcy may be a source of relevant stats. They also release a report on the causes of financial vulnerability in homeowners. https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/h_br04042.html
I would say that based on my reading of these documents, the homeowner who is living paycheque to paycheque is a minority due to the qualification rules in part. Job loss impact severity depends on the ability to replace income. I just cannot see the coronavirus impacting homeowners and propelling them to sell as a result in Victoria. It may delay the buying decisions of some, but we have lower rates and a lot of pressure at the low end of the market.
or if they haven’t already maxed it out.
We are at a historically high debt to income ratio are we not?
Reasons why (I think) the coronavirus will not affect Victoria real estate:
Recently I spoke with a realtor about fewer (or maybe not any) cruise ships coming to Ogden Point this summer. Yes, this is obviously a concern to Victoria tourism, which affects the general Victoria economy, which in turn might affect house prices. However, he pointed out that most Vancouver Island tourists are Canadians coming from interior BC, Alberta, Sask, Ontario and Quebec. The people on the ships are just day tourists who show up on the causeway and buy coffee and a few trinkets then go back to their ships and sail out. While this is no doubt an important part of Victoria tourism, these people are not filling the hotels rooms and staying for a couple weeks and exploring greater Victoria and spending real money.
Cruise Ships are like petrie dishes for the coronavirus. There could not be anything worse than cramming 3500 people into a confined area for two weeks waiting for one of them to fall ill, so the disease can spread like wildfire to the rest of the people. And then they come to port at Ogden Point and release the virus to everyone else in the city. Victoria Tourism (or the powers that be) should actually consider banning cruise ships for this summer in order to keep the rest of city safe for tourism. Sometimes you have to cut off the leg to save the body.
The realtor said we might expect more prairie and eastern Canadian tourists this summer because these people will not be taking cruise ship vacations up the Alaska coast or sailing down the gold coast to California (or taking any cruise ship anywhere in the world). They will not be flying to northern Italy or South Korea or going overseas where medical care is 1/2 of what it is in Canada. But they still get two or three weeks off for vacation. So what are they gonna do with their time? People love Victoria. They want to come here. But the key is keeping Victoria clean from the virus. The minute someone shows up at the hospital with the virus, all efforts have to be made to isolate them, care for them, protect staff, and detect others that may have been exposed, and take other proactive steps to lessen or stop the spread.
This coronavirus situation in China is actually improving now. Over the course of the last couple months, they have taken drastic steps and the number of daily cases reported in China is now declining. That is the best news I have heard about this affliction. In two short months, the rate of infection at Ground Zero is already dropping. The Victoria tourist season doesn’t even start until mid-April so, with intelligent planning, good medical care, and proactive steps Victorians can all come out of this without much effect on house prices.
The government just lowered the interest rate. This can only boost the real estate market.
It’s tough to “panic” in the real estate market. In the stock market, mass throngs can sell all their shares in one day causing the market to collapse. But it takes months and months to complete a house sale transaction. So the RE market is much more stable. Also, with the incredible swings going on in the stock market lately, I think that a lot more people might want to consider investing their money in the more stable real estate market. They gotta put it somewhere and if they keep losing it on the stock market, maybe they’ll put it into real estate.
Anyway, those are my thoughts…….
Heat pump HWT. Expnesive and that are designed primarily for water source/geothermal heat pump, however it can be use in conjunction with air source heat pump with little to no gain in energy saving.
That is great if the house is in Victoria for that money, but it would be a moot point out side of Victoria in 2012/2013 to spend that kind of money on an average house, and how many square feet did you gained? Luckily the foundation/footing didn’t need beefing up, and you already have access to the attic. It is quite a difference from the complexity, costs, and lost of living space on the main floor just for stairs to the attic. And, how much was your cost to add somekind of ventilation/HVAC due to the sealed unvented attic?
That’s quite a renno but sounds like it was worth it. I’m drawing up some mighty spreadsheets and documents. There’s so many things to consider it’s mindboggling. As far as I’ve investigated, I should be installing 2×6 joists throughout the attic to start (after a conversation with a structural engineer).
On the shorter term, I’m looking into hot water tank upgrades. Here’s a list products approved for rebates: https://neea.org/img/documents/qualified-products-list.pdf. Anyone got any recommendations within that list? Pretty sure I would need a ducted system which means (more) roof penetration.
I don’t mean that they will directly give money to homeowners. They will give money to the banks under the condition of not foreclosing on homeowners affected by the coronavirus or something along that line.
Tough to know. People love their cruises. But in the short and medium term it’s got to hurt when you get people like Canada’s chief public health officer telling people to avoid cruises
The main concern of the clown running the show there is talking the stock market back up.
Statscan doesn’t collect that information so it’s apples to oranges. The median home owner is ok but the median home owner is also entirely irrelevant (no collapse has ever seen the 50th percentile in trouble, it’s always the bottom percentiles)
The question is how big the tail or vulnerable home owners is. No one knows because we don’t have the data. All we have is flawed surveys. Closest real data is probably from the banks so the government likely has some data on financial exposure of owners but it doesn’t provide a full picture of how vulnerable what percentage is to job losses
Doubt it. Government doesn’t bail out people they only bail out corporations
You mean the reports done based on no reliable statistical data analysis whatsoever? The ones that simply canvas a sample of people by telephone and ask them if they believe they would have a hard time paying their bills if their paycheque was delayed with no reference to income, fixed expenses, discretionary spending, net worth, or level of consumer vs. investment debt?
I’m not a fan of those studies (in case you couldn’t tell). They make for salable news articles though that get picked up and spread around. Much more so than an analysis of the statscan data on income/debt/net worth.
There is no doubt that many people do live paycheque to paycheque, but if they are not homeowners then they won’t be able to buy without significant family help. Those that own and live paycheque to paycheque are able to access home equity unless they have recently purchased. Homeowners who have recently purchased at the edge of affordability (especially with family help), those with illnesses/addictions, and those going through separation/divorce are most at risk if someone loses a job. And some people in this position may lose jobs due to the economic impacts of the coronavirus, but I don’t see that as so significant as to cause prices to fall. YMMV
If people are getting laid off due to the coronavirus impacts, I would expect there to be a bigger impact on renters than home owners. I am sure the government will bail out home owners threatening to lose their homes if there is massive uptick in this. Not so sure they would bail out landlords.
I guess we get to see whether those reports about people living paycheck to paycheck are actually true.
I should add this was 7 years ago, I am sure the cost of the work would be more now. The middle section of the floor was already useable although it was only considered storage space as the walkable area was only 6′ wide. We did have to put in additional support in the basement.
A lot of which is unfortunately coming from the American government.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/larry-kudlow-coronavirus-task-force-contained-misinformatoin-cnbc-squawk-street
This depends on how it is done. We finished our attic space by lifting one half of the roof and installing windows. Using spray foam insulation we were able to avoid the need for a gap between the roof and the ceiling. The gyprock was laid along the roof joists and this achieved a high ceiling, 9’+ at the highest point. The finished floor area was increased by a third for just over $70,000.
The US is, IMO, already beyond containment and their medical system is so fragmented and profit-driven that many people will suffer unfortunately. I have a lot more faith in our system and our more pro-social cultural values. I think Canadians will respond well at the community level given good public health information and messaging. The main thing will be countering misinformation.
I’ve never read a story about a cruise that made me want to take a cruise.
Employment is the key. Tourism will take a massive dive, but I’m not so sure whether that sectors workers are holding up the market. Unsure if tech and construction will suffer..
As of Friday for Covid-19
BC = 2,008 tested. 27 confirmed cases
Ontario = 1,763 tested, 23 confirmed cases
All of US = 1,895 tested, 307 confirmed cases (cases have increased there since so it seems they are ramping up testing now).
So far Canadian health system seems better prepared to potentially contain the virus. However, in the US it is probably too late to contain the spread at least in certain states. If it gets out of control in the US, it will probably be impossible to contain in Canada.
Sources for testing counts:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-virus-hunters-inside-the-race-to-find-and-contain-covid-19-in-canada/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597
I don’t see a big impact on housing. I wouldn’t expect a discount due to coronavirus effects on the economy. I don’t think now is a bad time to buy a home with the mortgage rate reduction. There will; however, be a major short-term impact on our economy. Already happening.
Tourism has taken a nose-dive. We will see a drop in international students which may take several years to recover. Conferences and events will be cancelled. People will not book discretionary international travel, or in-country travel for that matter as conditions worsen. I would expect we will see a fraction of the Asian, American and European visitors we usually get this summer and perhaps all the way through next summer too. There will be fewer summer jobs for students. There will be some temporary job losses and some permanent as some businesses will cut back or close.
This will be a boon to online services like Amazon and other take-out/delivery services. Grocery stores will probably hire more delivery drivers. Restaurants will see a big decline in eat in traffic if there is a local outbreak while take-out will expand. Loads of people are going to start to use online doctor consults – about time for that.
Long-term, I’m not sure the cruise ship industry will fully recover.
Great post Cynic, and I thoroughly agree. I’ve said a few times now that I don’t think this would be a good time to buy a home, and it makes sense to wait until the virus threat is over (because there is no discount offered to buy now). That may be a 6-18 month wait, and hopefully then will be all clear “sunny ways” again.
I don’t think this (effect on economy as outlined in your post) has yet sunk in to the househunters in Victoria though. Or Seattle for that matter. Look at this article about the Seattle housing boom “frenzy” that hasn’t slowed down yet….
“Amid coronavirus concerns, Seattle homebuying frenzy continues
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/amid-coronavirus-concerns-seattle-homebuying-frenzy-continues/
Serious question. What effects on housing will COVID-19 have (if any) once it rears its ugly head here in Victoria?
My thoughts (from a random internet guy).
Tourism in Victoria brings in over $1.2 billion and affects 22,000 jobs. This thing doesn’t even need to hit Victoria. Quarantines in other countries, travel bans, and just fear will definItely take a big bite out of that and have economic effects. With that comes loss of consumer confidence and potentially less people willing to take advantage of that rate drop to buy that investment property or climb up the property ladder when they arent sure they will have a job to pay the mtg.
Victoria has approx 21% of its population over 65 years of age and therefore the most susceptible. Assuming they begin to really hunker down, their discretionary spending will significantly decrease (as will most peoples i believe). Small and medium businesses will be hit particularily hard. Once again, potentiall economic impact and then loss of confidence.
Any other thoughts? I dont see this thing levelling out or getting any better until we see some positive news (vaccine or containment). This will not bode well for the economy and housing will also be hit in terms of sales. I dont think the mortgage rate drop will keep the party going myself. But then again, what do i know?
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-middle-east-51787238?__twitter_impression=true
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=5917034&Geo2=PR&Code2=01&SearchText=victoria&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&type=0
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.tourismvictoria.com/sites/default/files/economic_impact_of_tourism_in_greater_victoria_may_2018.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjs4MOyi4voAhUiHzQIHS2CCAsQFjABegQIDBAI&usg=AOvVaw03Z-SplsBsmKgJtYrpYZrn
No blog needed.
IMO, it is a waste of energy and money to create a small living/storage space out of the attic that can greatly affect the air flow/humidity between the roof and ceiling. Finish a basement or craw space is better if those options are available. Otherwise, it may make more sense to sell and purchase a home that fit all of your requirements. If you are really handy (level 5 out of 5) then jacking up the house could be another option (may need to increase footing/wall depth/size).
Chimney removal is an easy task and relatively inexpensive, repair and finishing is the costly part.
So Shoal Point at $817,000 vs 834 Johnson at $90,000
Hard to know how to compare them. By total unit value?
150 units x median sales price of $1.15M = $172.5M
120 x $405k = $48.6M
9 times more insurance for 3.5 times higher value?
Maybe or maybe I am? I don’t know how you got to an increase of only 11-12 dollars per month on your unit if fees for insurance are rising 50% unless you are paying only 22-24/month now, which means other larger units must be paying a lot more and have a larger dollar figure increase?
90k/12/120 = $62.5 per unit average after the increase in insurance. Am I missing something?
I haven’t looked into the entire process but I believe a conversation with a structural engineer would be a first step. Maybe it’s time I started a renno blog.
That is a 50% increase isn’t it? Seems somewhat significant.
If you are only paying 25/month for insurance (seems low but might be correct given your projected increase?), this must mean others are paying a lot more to get to 61k over 120 units. The person who was paying 150/month is now paying 75 more per month just for insurance. My house insurance rates have gone up too – but not near that much.
The disadvantage of living in a province people actually want to visit. Everyone wants to live here and some of them have coronavirus! 🙂
Townhouses less affected, likely cause they are not stacked. Insurance up 10% on a complex in Brentwood
Buildings I own in are starting to re-insure and nothing too dramatic. I own a unit at 834 Johnson (120 units) and our insurance last year was $61,000 and $90,000 on the renewal this year. I have a smaller than building average unit so my strata fees might increase by $11 or $12 per month.
Canada has 60 cases of CoVid now, and almost half (27) are in BC. For example today there are 6 new cases and all of them are in BC. As usual, some are connected to travel to Iran, and our federal govt still refuses to block that, despite many other countries blocking travel to/from Iran.
BC’s case total of 27 with a population of 5 million puts us at 5.4 cases per million. This website lists the cases per million for other countries, and you can see that BC is now 3X that rate of Canada as a whole or the US as a whole. And B.C. has a higher rate than U.K. or Japan. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
More worrying, the new cases seem to be community transmission, and some now involve an elderly home.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/6-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-b-c-including-2-long-term-care-home-residents-1.4843279
“6 new cases of COVID-19 in B.C., including 2 long-term care home residents
“The message that I think is so important is, you need to stay home when you’re sick,” Henry said. “If you’ve travelled, even if you haven’t travelled, we are in an extraordinary situation. We need everybody to be aware, to look after their children, if you or your children are sick, stay home.
The province [BC] now has 27 cases of the novel coronavirus.
Two of the six new cases announced Saturday were people who had connection with travel in Iran: a man in his 50s who had recently returned from Iran, and a “close household contact” of that man.
Henry and Dix issued a strong warning to avoid cruise ships altogether at this time.
“People who are considering going on cruises, who have bought tickets, need to seriously consider,” Dix said. “If you’re asking my advice, I say don’t go.”
Dix noted that B.C.’s cruise season has not yet started, and he said the federal government and cruise industry are currently in discussions about the upcoming season.”
That was a very good video Grant. BC activated its pandemic plan yesterday so it might be time to reach out to your neighbours and let them know you are there for them in cases of self-quarantine if they need, ex. groceries. Take care of each other to take care of the most vulnerable. At this point it is going to be about controlling local transmission so step up the hand washing and the social distancing. Call 8-1-1 if you have symptoms for guidance.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/health/about-bc-s-health-care-system/office-of-the-provincial-health-officer/current-health-topics/pandemic-influenza
From a UK broadcast: CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus – saying it’s the scariest outbreak he’s dealt with in his 20-year career.
https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs
You can also use Wayerhauser’s free Forte software: https://www.weyerhaeuser.com/woodproducts/software-learning/forte-software/
Ideally you bring the whole thing inside the thermal envelope. Depending on where your roof insulation is, that may mean bringing it down to just below the roof, or, to the ceiling if you have a typical attic.
Might also want to deal with the bottom of the chimney depending on whether it’s sitting directly on the ground or not.
Interesting new documentary that follows a United Nations investigator as she travels the world in an attempt to figure out the reason behind the housing crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWSVG9nsRa4
This seems like a more realistic estimate of what the actual death rate from the Coronavirus might be
Researchers from the University of Hong Kong have estimated the mortality rate among symptomatic Covid-19 patients at 1.4 per cent, in contrast with 3.4 per cent put forth by the World Health Organisation earlier this week. But HKU researchers also warned that the epidemic caused by the new coronavirus was “much more severe and deadlier” than the swine flu pandemic in 2009. The latest study, a joint project between the HKU and the school of public health at Harvard University, projected that in every 1,000 people who showed symptoms of Covid-19 infection, 14 died.
Professor Gabriel Leung, founding director of the HKU’s WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, said the projection was based on data, including previous studies on estimated infected cases in mainland China, as well as confirmed cases reported by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention till mid-February. Foreigners infected in Wuhan who left on chartered flights around late January and early February were also included in the study. “We took into account all relevant data and created a large mathematical model to come up with the estimations,” Leung said, adding the calculation also covered patients who showed the symptoms of the infection but were not hospitalised.
He said the figure could be even smaller if the calculation took into account infected patients who did not show symptoms, but added the public should not take it lightly as it could still mean lots of people were killed by the disease. The study also found the risk of death among those aged 70 or above would be around three times more than the overall death rate of 1.4 per cent, according to Leung. “We must not let [the virus] enter elderly care homes and centres, else the impact would be huge,” he said.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074015/university-hong-kong-researchers-put-covid-19
Love the visible distaste and sneer when she says it’s “eastern people” (Toronto) coming in and attacking Victoria 🙂
Interested in removing ours for earthquake safety too.
That said do you know thermally if it makes much difference to just remove the above roof segment and seal it up rather than removing the entire thing?
Fascinating CBC video article on Victoria, shot in 1987 when many residents were up in arms over developer plans to replace the old Eatons building with a shopping mall known today as the Bay Center.
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1702327875940
Might soon get some actual data on the condo insurance situation
“ The authority is determining how many of the 300 insurance companies in B.C. provide strata insurance, and how many have stopped offering policies to condos and townhouses, said its deputy superintendent, Frank Chong. It is also collecting at least two years of data on every policy’s value, location, number of units, type of units, construction type, age of building, commissions paid to brokers, and deductibles for earthquake, sewer and water damage.”
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/blindsided-b-c-condo-residents-fearful-as-extent-of-insurance-crisis-remains-unclear
The Grand Princess cruise ship, idling off San Francisco has tested 45 patients and crew, and 21 have tested positive for the CoVid-19 virus. 19 of them are crew members,. This is the same ship that is scheduled to arrive for a visit to Victoria in April. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/vp-pence-says-21-people-on-the-grand-princess-cruise-ship-off-california-coast-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus.html
Links about the ships visiting Victoria in April in my previous post https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/02/february-market-report/#comment-66546
A different point, University of Washington (Seattle) has cancelled all in person classes and exams. Everything online now. U Vic should be preparing to do the same thing.
https://q13fox.com/2020/03/06/university-of-washington-employee-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-classes-to-be-taught-remotely-starting-monday/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/us-coronavirus-death-toll-washington-state
Nice reno, nice profit…
2240 Woodhouse Rd
Just sold @ $1,432,500
Sold Apr 11, 2018 @ $917,500
Attic space usually can not be easily converted to living space. The first hurdle will be converting ceiling joists into floor joists. Floor joists are much stronger than ceiling joists. The moment you put stairs into an attic you are required to convert your ceiling joists into floor joists. If you decide to do the work without a permit and just just the ceiling joists as floor joists then your main-floor ceiling drywall will crack along each seam. Also, you’ll never be able to sell your place with unpermitted work/living space without being liable to the purchasers.
Here is the span table link:
http://free.bcpublications.ca/civix/document/id/public/bcbc2018/bcbc_2018dbp9st
Refer to table 9.23.4.2.-C. Ceiling Joist Span Table
Refer to table 9.23.4.2.-A for Floor Joist Span Tables
If you are adding another floor of living space you need a building permit. You will then also likely need a structural engineer to sign off on the design.
@josh If you’re considering putting a living space in the attic, do you need to talk to a structural engineer to ensure that the attic is capable of supporting that additional weight? I’ve wondered that because I also have an unfinished attic… no obvious place to put a staircase however 🙁
https://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/we-re-just-lost-u-s-preparation-for-coronavirus-outbreak-criticized-1.5488048
Hi gang, a question for everyone. How does one go about finding a good listing agent in another town? We are looking at unloading a family property up island and not sure how to find a good agent.
Loving the discussion as always!
“Another interesting flip.
1109 Lyall St for $680k.”
Ah, the charming 1939 character bungalow. Squeaky 1/4″ oak floors that can’t sanded, crumbling asphalt insulated romex, a basement for smashing your head into things, and uninsulated walls.
Fireplaces are net losers of heat in the vast majority of cases, so removing is a plus. Also, the older ones tend to be really easy to remove – often you can just pick the bricks off by hand (or with a light tap). I’m assuming you’re not pulling a permit for reclaiming the attic, as it’s pretty rare you can (legally) do this. Might want to have an engineer swing by to take a look at the attic framing before having a dance party up there.
Another interesting flip.
1109 Lyall St for $680k.
Paid 700k in Feb 2017.
Subdivided the lot with a new build just a few feet behind the house(looks terrible IMO). Added a new fence, staged the and looks like a new W&D.
The cruise ship in quarantine in Japan is informative vis a vis the number of patients who tested positive with COVID-19 but who had absolutely zero symptoms. Extrapolating this to the general population indicates that a high percentage of infected people are completely unaware they are infected with COVID-19 because they have no symptoms, plus another huge percentage have such mild symptoms they would never seek medical attention. Consequently the fatality percentage being reported by the media are too high.
UC San Francisco infectious disease expert Charles Chiu, MD, PhD, has been following the disease since its outbreak and provides the CDC with the latest updates.
Dr Chiu stated, “…the actual death rate of the new coronavirus very well may be lower than 2% because the total number of cases likely has been underreported… there have been documented cases of asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic transmission, which are harder to identify and track.
“I believe that the actual calculated death rates will go down over time, perhaps to less than 1 percent” said Chiu.
Not sure why this would be “maybe”. I might be missing something, but my understanding is that the official reported cases are only based on those tested. Or are the reported cases also based on some sort of non-test?
Random jobs number generate strikes again.
“While not a particularly strong monthly figure, the 30,000 new jobs were three times more than economists were expecting.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-february-1.5488080
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/02/18/whats-really-going-on-in-the-victoria-economy/
No, but it’s going to interrupt people’s behavior while on the go, of hydrating via a stop at coffee shops/restaurants throughout the day. Ideally they carry their own tap water re-filled bottles, but that might not be possible for some, who get bottled water instead.
Also, one spouse might be isolated for 14 days and the other one isn’t (In the same house). Better to have water bottles available for the quarantined one without having to leave their room to get a drink of water. Of course that could be tap water filled bottles in a perfect world. Likely some people will keep the empty plastic water bottles and refill them rather than buying new ones all the time.
Stocking up on bottled water for coronavirus makes no sense. Coronavirus isn’t an earthquake that is going to interrupt water service. Of course if you have an earthquake kit you already have some bottles or jugs of water stockpiled.
Toilet paper – sure a few extra rolls, but really TP is pretty far down the hierarchy of basic human needs in an emergency situation
I get that, US has been horrible about testing.
New York state has nearly 3000 people who are quarantined but haven’t been tested. They’ve only tested 35 people apparently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-cases.html
There’s an issue with our neighbour, and it’s only getting worse as the days tick by.
Unless you have concerns about lead in your water, no need to stock up for covid. Why all the unnecessary plastic?
And toilet paper. You generally need one roll per person for two weeks. Double it to be safe and multiply it by the number of people in your household. We need eight rolls which we always have on hand anyway – most people probably do.
Wow, all the gains in bond yields since 2016 gone. Back to 1.99% special fixed rates.
Anyone could be facing a 14 day or longer home quarantine on a moment’s notice, so having supplies for at least that period seems like common sense.
James, my data is from today and is updated live throughout the day. That data posted was a snapshot of today so far. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Eight cases in one day in BC with a population of 5 million should be a wake up call, if the USA had that rate applied to its 320 million people that would be 320*8/5= 512 cases. And as you mentioned they only had 62 yesterday. That’s 8X the rate per capita BC vs USA – just one data point and I’m not suggesting it will or has always been like that.
Moreover, I think you have misunderstood my post, or I haven’t been clear. I am not saying USA has been that good at preventing the virus. I’m just saying Canada And B.C. especially seems to be no better by the numbers. B.C. and Canada needs to be more proactive. We have been good at testing more people, and maybe that affects diagnoses numbers, but that’s just a fraction of the work that will need to happen.
At least it seems the US is planning to do something about the cruise ships. (See Reuter’s link) Hopefully the people in BC that have approved these April/May cruise ships into Victoria will do something too. Like not allow them to land here, just cruise by and enjoy the panorama.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cruiseships-exclus/exclusive-u-s-considering-discouraging-some-travelers-from-cruises-sources-idUSKBN20T29M?feedType=RSS&feedName=newsOne
And how about our Federal govt issuing a similar warning to discourage Canadians from traveling on cruise ships. There have already been Canadians with CoVid infections associated with multiple cruise ships. Enough!
> A lot of people won’t have symptoms.
WHO is estimating 6.3% of people are asymptomatic. So, more end up in the hospital (10%) than with no symptoms.
@Patrick https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_States
US had 63 confirmed cases yesterday, not 12.
Also 2 of Canada’s 14 actually came from the States. One from Seattle, one from Las Vegas. As of this moment, Canada has diagnosed as many people who’ve got it in Nevada as Nevada has.
edit: sorry Patrick. Thought you were talking about yesterday, not just this morning.
At least it seems the US is planning to do something about the cruise ships. Hopefully the people in BC that have approved these April/May cruise ships into Victoria will do something too. Like not allow them to land here, just cruise by and enjoy the panorama.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cruiseships-exclus/exclusive-u-s-considering-discouraging-some-travelers-from-cruises-sources-idUSKBN20T29M?feedType=RSS&feedName=newsOne
I took a quick look at the plan, and it does include more green space than I thought it would have.
My views on the West Shore suffer from a lot of bias, I’m afraid.
Four or five times a year, I would say.
Isn’t much of Royal Bay a former rock quarry?
Of course. Score another point for you.
> You’ll most likely get a far better return/comfort by keeping the baseboards and working on the envelope.
Good advice. I suspect the bills would become totally acceptable just working on sealing and insulation. But I do love me a good rebate.
The chimney is in my sights. The exterior portion is in need of mortar maintenance so I’m thinking it’s a good time to think about axing the whole thing. If I take it right out there’s a good chance that there would be space for a proper staircase up to the attic that I want to finish. A major job obs but it would add 46% more useable floorspace.
Patrick, the academic research I have reviewed seems to support the WHO’s position: travel bans are ineffective – largely because they come too late and discourage reporting of symptoms which can backfire and cause more widespread transmission.
People who are contagious are travelling to Canada from other countries than Iran or China already and have been for months – many of them are Canadians who are returning travelers. The spread of a virus like covid19 cannot be controlled through a travel ban – maybe just slowed down by a few days. It is already here in Canada. We most likely at community transmissions state now. It is only a matter of time. A lot of people won’t have symptoms.
It may not be too bad here though and maybe it will die down before spreading too widely – I don’t know. We have more space around us and generally better health care access than Iran – or the US. But it is advisable to take personal precautions now imo. There are a few other high impact measures that seem helpful besides the hand washing:
1) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores if available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.
2) If you can’t find hand sanitizer which seems to be sold out most places, you can make your own by mixing aloe gel and alcohol. Google it.
3) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home’s entrances and in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can’t immediately wash your hands.
4) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more.
5)Zinc lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY “cold-like” symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx.
6) During an active outbreak in your area disposable face masks are not a bad idea in public spaces for another reason: people touch their faces an average of 90 times per day, often without noticing and the mask stops you doing this and this is the most likely method of transmission: touching infected surfaces and then your face.
As far as cruise ships go, I would not step foot on one right now. That is a bad place to be for transmission if you have one infected passenger. Same with a doctor’s office, we are using Babylon health instead until this is over if possible. I’m most worried about people in nursing homes. I’d be fine to go to house showings 🙂
I’ve not stocked up on toilet paper and water myself. Seems like many are because they think covid is like a big snowstorm?
>So far today there are 8 new cases in BC. in all of USA there are 12 new cases today. Also 12 in Canada despite 1/10 of USA population. We have to stop thinking that somehow we are smarter and better prepared than them.
One of those 8 was from the US. They only have 12 more cases(if that’s the true number) because they aren’t testing. They’ve actually removed the number of tested from the CDC site because it was a fucking embarrassment.
Governor of Missouri yesterday said they have tested nearly 17 people
https://twitter.com/GovParsonMO/status/1235695701532782594
17!
Being better prepared then the states at this point is like saying Canada produces less Pineapple than Hawaii. Everyone seems more prepared than the States at this point. You start to wonder if it’s by design. Of course, Hanlon’s razor… Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
The problem with travel bans is that it would make it much harder to track.
For example if a someone from Iran tries to come to Canada. They could just transfer through another country and lie about having been in Iran. If they end up showing symptoms once in Canada they would probably try to hide that as well. By leaving the borders open there is a higher chance you can track who is coming in from the countries affected, give them extra screening and potentially instruct them what to do if they end up showing symptoms.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the outbreak(s) around Seattle were caused by people travelling back from China, maybe flying into Vancouver and crossing the border without telling the border guards they had been to China.
At this point it seems to be to late to contain the virus and efforts should be focussed on trying to control it.
Totoro,
A Doctor – Infectious disease specialist and member of the Virus committee – in Iran predicts that 30-40% of people in Tehran will be infected by March 20. This disease has an official fatality rate of 3.4%. And to be clear, the research you have done has brought you to the conclusion that we shouldn’t ban travel from Iran to Canada as other countries have done? Do you really think “financial consequences” of the tiny trade between Iran and Canada have any role to play here? Do you know that many of BC cases are from Iran already?
https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/27509-the-coronavirus-crisis-in-iran
“Dr. Massoud Mardani, a specialist in infectious diseases and member of the National Influenza Committee told the state-owned daily Entekhab on March 5: “The Coronavirus is circulating at great speed, as one contaminated person can infect four others, we estimate that 30 to 40% of Tehran’s population would be infected by the virus in two weeks.” The latest Tehran population count is 12 to 13 million. “
> We have to stop thinking that somehow we are smarter and better prepared than them.
So far I agree – no indication that Canada will be less hard hit than US. US has 9 times the Canadian population and about 5 times the number of cases. Higher death rate in the US which could just be a quirk in who was exposed or could actually relate to medical care received.
Also without knowing the numbers tested in both countries it is hard to compare the number of cases found
So far today there are 8 new cases in BC. in all of USA there are 12 new cases today. Also 12 in Canada despite 1/10 of USA population. We have to stop thinking that somehow we are smarter and better prepared than them. Sadly only some of the BC cases are directly travel related as others are secondary infections from previous travel related cases. This will quickly become community acquired cases with no connection to travel or anything else.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (this site updates numbers throughout the day, starting a new day at GMT+0 which is 4pm PST)
“ 8 in British Columbia: 1 has no travel history, 2 had recently returned from Iran, 4 are linked to a previously confirmed case, 1 is connected to University Canada West where a presumptive case is being investigated”
“12 new cases and 2 new deaths in the United States, including:
– 2 new deaths in King County, Washington state.
– 2 new cases in Washington state
– first 2 cases in Colorado (Summit County): 1 is a 30-year old man who had traveled to Italy in February and was in contact with a confirmed case outside of Colorado. [source]
– first 3 cases in Maryland (Montgomery County): they had all recently traveled overseas. [source]”
An obvious travel ban that should be done locally is cruise ship visits to Victoria. We have the “Grand Princess” scheduled to arrive in Victoria April 3 (see link) . That’s the ship currently held outside San Francisco for fear of CoVid-19 cases, and it’s to be followed by four cruise ships which were re-routed from previous Asia trips (see link). We have 700,000 visitors coming to Victoria this year from all over the world by these cruise ships. They stay for about 3 hours and maybe do some shopping.
Cruise ship visits to Victoria (and elsewhere) should be stopped during a global pandemic. Or just be limited to “cruising” where they don’t get off the boats.
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/cruise-ship-being-held-off-california-for-virus-testing-is-scheduled-to-come-to-victoria-1.24091799
“ Cruise ship being held off California for virus testing is scheduled to come to Victoria”
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/cruise-company-redirects-asia-tour-to-victoria-due-to-covid-19-1.4828516 “ Cruise company redirects Asia tour to Victoria due to COVID-19”
Because COVUD-19 kills by pneumonia I wonder if people living in heavily air polluted cities are more vulnerable.
Chinese cities have a reputation for having thick air pollution, perhaps that is part of the reason why China was hit hard by the virus. Also, lots of heavy smokers in China and smokers are more susceptible to death from pneumonia. The thick air pollution in China has been likened to smoking a pack a day, then compounded with actual cigarette smoking and the likelihood of fatal pneumonia is likely an order of magnitude++ higher than a non-smoking Victorian.
Seeing big drops in 5 year fixed mortgage rates.
The research shows that it is most likely that travel bans may delay the spread of inter-country infection by 3 days to two weeks and have no impact on overall rates of infection. This is because a) initial containment is always delayed it takes time to determine there is a new virus and b) the spread of the infection increases exponentially and this is managed by measures implemented within countries.
There are severe economic consequences to bans, but that aside, they tend to cause people who are infected to go underground, not report, and find workarounds which defeats the purpose. And some countries may be tempted to under report or not disclose new illnesses given the financial consequences.
By far the biggest impact on exponential infection rates and mortality is the health care and public health messaging available to the impacted population in their home country.
Under international health regulations travel restrictions should be assessed and recommended by WHO. WHO has not recommended this at this time.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadas-decision-against-travel-bans-tied-to-coronavirus-backed-by/
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30373-1/fulltext
And for those of you who like to read the academic studies 🙂
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3031602/
I don’t do sales. I didn’t actually know how that field works on listings and whether it can be overridden. Thanks for finding out.
Probably part of an agreement to use PCS or be associated with a brokerage… not allowed to talk about how it all works.
Kind of like fight club.
Round table discussion: The Financialization of the Housing Market
The Agenda with Steve Paikin
https://youtu.be/nxZ0d_ZtU0Q
At yet you look at the states, it hasn’t helped at all. The woefully under prepared, and clearly currently having an outbreak.
Keep us in the loop if you decide to remove your chimney. I’m thinking of doing the same. Any companies to recommend to do that work?
No, and I asked LeoS three times if a listing realtor can manually enter the correct current assessed value but he refused to answer all three times so I called a random realtor and asked the same question. Reluctantly the realtor said the assessed value field is automatically populated with last year’s assessed value but he could manually update the field to the current assessed value.
I’ll leave you to your own conclusions about why realtors don’t take an extra minute to manually enter the correct LOWER assessed value.
In my opinion that’s very unprofessional from an organization that insists their member be called “Professionals”
“They’re just not making neighbourhoods like they used to.”
True, but that’s not a bad thing imo. Never was a huge fan of charmless strip malls and parking lots.
“I’ll be surprised if there is any decent green space or grassy fields in Royal Bay when it’s all done.”
There is a high school there already and an Elementary school is planned. Plus the master plan seems to include a lot of green space. But whatever, you seem to have your mind made up about how things are going to be in a place that you haven’t seen in 3 years. Let me guess, you haven’t driven over the malahat in 3 years either?
“And the lots are small compared to the core, which is another downer.”
If they were bigger, it would mean more trees would have to be cut down and even less green space.
Also, what you are saying is not true. I know lots tend to be larger and uniform in suburban areas like Gordon Head, but there are definitely residential lots in the more desirable areas like Fairfield and Fernwood that are less than 5000 square feet.
What?
Read the article that you posted, because it plainly states that there is evidence of travel bans working to delay the outbreak. Here’s what it says that travel bans can do….
“Research from past outbreaks has found that travel restrictions can delay, but not stop, the arrival and spread of a new pathogen https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadas-decision-against-travel-bans-tied-to-coronavirus-backed-by/
Obviously delaying the outbreak is important, allowing the government and people time to prepare, as well as the Medical people to assemble equipment and develop treatment and vaccines. Maybe the virus is seasonal, and a delay of a few weeks will save lives as we move to spring and summer.
So for example, what if someone gets the virus in Canada and dies next week (One patient in BC is currently in critical condition). And in three weeks the Doctors have found an antiviral combination that helps some people. Obviously delaying the arrival of the virus by travel bans could have helped.
They’re just not making neighbourhoods like they used to. I’ll be surprised if there is any decent green space or grassy fields in Royal Bay when it’s all done. And the lots are small compared to the core, which is another downer.
2001 Carrick St for sale once again for $900k, assessed at $739k. Not sure if they did any work on it but it will be interesting to see what it sells at.
Prev sales:
Jan 18, 2019 $795,000
Aug 31, 2017 $800,000
Did we ever get an answer how Realtors are allowed to display last years assessment values on MLS?
I’m not looking for the answer that assessed value has no bearing on market value.
Because there’s no evidence that it works. The principle motivation for travel bans is political ass-covering.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadas-decision-against-travel-bans-tied-to-coronavirus-backed-by/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/23/virus-travel-bans-are-inevitable-but-ineffective/
At this point we would have to stop travel from the US as well, along w/ France and Germany and Egypt.
Last time I checked, of BC’s 13 cases of Coronavirus (one in critical condition), almost all were traceable to travel to/from a country with high infection rates (China, Iran). https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-announces-13th-case-of-coronavirus-woman-in-critical-condition-1.4839293
Why aren’t we stopping travel from these countries (China, Iran, South Korea, northern Italy) , as other countries have done? For example Australia … “ Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced Thursday that coronavirus-related travel bans on foreigners coming from China and Iran will be extended to South Korea. ”
Here’s our current Canada Federal govt position.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid19-trudeau-coronavirus-travel-1.5486799
(March 5) “Canada has no plan to ban foreign travellers arriving from coronavirus-affected regions. Trudeau says ‘knee-jerk reactions’ won’t stop spread of COVID-19“
I would guess that your best bang would be:
1. Remove chimney
2. The rest into air sealing, insulation, and windows/doors (in that order).
You’ll most likely get a far better return/comfort by keeping the baseboards and working on the envelope. In some cases that’s impossible (can’t put insulation under the basement slab).
or Fairfield in the teens
“I was last in Royal Bay probably three or four years ago, and all I can remember is that teeny, tiny, shitty little playground by the beach. And there wasn’t one speck of shade in which to take refuge on a hot day. I seriously hope that playground has been upgraded since then and/or they’ve built additional, larger playgrounds in the area.”
No idea, but it’s gonna be years before Royal Bay is done.
Just think about how shitty Gordon Head would’ve looked in the 70s when it was being built out and every tree in sight was mowed down and construction dust filled the air. After 40 plus years, it ain’t bad, right?
Did Josh buy a place? I must have missed that!
Not a bad starter home at all, but it’s still crazy to think that less than a decade ago one could buy a property on a lot double this size in the core for sub-$600K. The passage of time is cruel in this city.
I was last in Royal Bay probably three or four years ago, and all I can remember is that teeny, tiny, shitty little playground by the beach. And there wasn’t one speck of shade in which to take refuge on a hot day. I seriously hope that playground has been upgraded since then and/or they’ve built additional, larger playgrounds in the area.
There was supposed to be a smiley face at the end of my post indicating that it was a joke. It didn’t work for whatever reason and by the time i noticed it was too late to edit. I think it is brilliant you saw the opportunity, took it, and have done well at it. Was just poking fun as we all should at each other once in a while or else things get a bit too serious. (insert smiley face here)
Housing market is collateral damage for them. I’m sure they’re gritting their teeth but no option except to follow the US down.
“I was in Royal Bay yesterday with clients purchasing a home there and these are flying off the shelf …”
Not surprised. Royal Bay is a nice little development. I looked at a couple places out there a year or so ago and was pretty impressed with it. Small, bright houses with unfinished basements and detached garages. Hopefully it ends up setting a precedent.
I am dissapointed that you wouldn’t look at my past years of predictions on HHV -> https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/01/01/predictions-review-and-2020-forecasts/ and then draw some common sense conclusions based on that.
You are implying that I pump the market, which if you look at my predictions, I never have; therefore, pointless for me to spend my time answering your long winded “sincere question.” Secondly, as I’ve explained many times my business is tied to marketshare, not so much the market as a whole. My personal sales volume when up substantially last year over 2018, but the market was down over 2018. Leo has access to my stats and can confirm.
Have you ever even read what I’ve written about my own profession and commissions?
Just take Marko’s posts with a grain of salt and move on, like I’ve done with every single bear/bull on this board that cherry picks a couple of sales under/over ask and tries to conclude that the market is definitely going one way or the other.
Personally I like Marko’s boots-on-the-ground reports and I don’t read them as biased. Small sample sizes sometimes, but I imagine that’s the nature of high end (~7.5MM). Not as much stock, so not as much data to go on.
Marko said:
“What I’m saying is I don’t understand why allusions are made without evidence
because I don’t work for the government and don’t have time for pointless long posts? Read Leo’s market report….that’s the unbias evidence”
Well, thanks for replying I guess.
It was a sincere question, so I’m a little disappointed with your reply. But you are saying your comments are biased, so there’s that.
Ufff back to this.
Personally, not a fan of stress text relaxation or drop in interest rates. It seems we can’t even go a few years without the government making large changes that influence the markets. It would be nice to have 4-5 years of status quo to see where the chips land.
Larger percentage of sales are new builds these days.
Nice to see smaller places out there. I was also looking at the townhomes out at Happy Valley for high 400s (granted going over ask into the low 500s). 1400sqft. Plenty big enough for a family. Reminded me about the townhomes broken down by Aryze at Pearl Block. Rather than 2300sqft starting at $800k we should be building more 1500sqft starting at $600k
I was in Royal Bay yesterday with clients purchasing a home there and these are flying off the shelf -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21600830/260-caspian-dr-victoria-royal-bay Pretty much all young couples in sales center.
I removed and internal chimney a few years ago and it didn’t qualify as an upgrade at that time. It was a messy job but Oak Bay chimney sweep did a fantastic job for us.
I looked into buying in the US quite a few years ago for rental return. A service like roofstock may offer value, but you’ll pay for it. IMO the best way to invest in the US is to identify an area, visit, find your own team, and manage remotely. Entirely possible using referrals from sites like BiggerPockets. I decided against it after determining that I’m not comfortable anywhere but a market I know extremely well and a tax environment that I understand and feel I can plan for. The US market brings also brings currency exchange and inheritance issues which you have to be willing to take on and manage.
This US site looks to make buying/selling investment properties (rental houses) like buying a Tesla – online and sight unseen. Houses already rented, manager in place. High cap rates. Some cheap houses (“you get what you pay for”) https://www.roofstock.com
Obviously lots could go wrong, but interesting site nonetheless.
I’m looking into a heat pump, probably air source, potentially in floor, and insulation upgrades. It would be replacing electric baseboard, so no municipal top up unfortunately. It looks like the first step has to be the pre-upgrade inspection. I could also remove 2 exterior doors and a chimney but I don’t know if those qualify as energy upgrades despite the big energy savings.
Right at the start of March, too. Bring on the price gains!
Growing fears as COVID-19 outbreak causes international tourism drop in B.C.
https://www.cheknews.ca/growing-fears-as-covid-19-outbreak-causes-international-tourism-drop-in-b-c-651677/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
I don’t know… I don’t think many peeps from Comox or any other smaller community are all of sudden going to decide to vacation in Victoria instead of Mexico if they are fearful of COVID-19. I think they would be happy to staycation where there is a smaller population. And even if they did all decide to come to Vic, I don’t think it would cover those the international tourists or their spending abilities / habits.
My 2 cents anyway.
I also think this will be a minor blip in the long term. But you don’t drop rates 50 basis points if everything is all well and the future looks fine.
All the big banks matched the 0.5% drop so mortgage rates got substantially cheaper. That’s about 5% more buying power and will get compounded with change to stress test benchmark being based on market rates soon
What upgrades are you doing Josh?
To give everyone a break from covid talk – has anyone gone through the full EnerGuide preinspection, retrofit, postinspection, rebate process and have good things to say about it?
Because a large part of the concern is centered around slowing the spread. It is not incongruent to understand that the mortality rates may not be awful but also acknowledge that if it spreads very rapidly the health care system could be overwhelmed and more people could die than otherwise would have happened if the spread was slower.
Since the BOC pulled the stimulus trigger this morning, I called MAXA Financial to move my savings to a GIC. There was a long wait, so apparently I’m not the only one. In any case, the guy I talked to did say they’ll be dropping their savings rates tomorrow. Not sure about other banks/credit unions, but take it for what it’s worth.
I think I would rather just die than be on a ventilator in that type of chaos. If I can’t be a on a Propofol infusion while on the vent screw it and outside of ICU doubt they will be capable of doing such. There are only 24 beds between the two ICUs in Victoria combined.
Simple
BOC of Canada just added fuel to the housing market in Canada. People will travel but closer to home so I bet spring/summer tourism will do just fine. People like to panic and think the worst. IMHO this will be a miner blip. Bought stocks Friday, bought more Tuesday and will keep buying on any more dips. Everything will be fine.
As I have stated many times. No land/ more people moving to Canada/ getting more expensive to build. You buy housing in Victoria over the past 2 years. You did a good thing. The 2 dopes running the Province and Feds will keep spending like drunken sailors which only adds to increased housing prices
Instead of looking at the mortality rate, I think you need to look at the severe cases that requires hospitalization (which i think is over 10%). That could cause a capacity issues at hospitals and cause deaths in an otherwise survivable illness. Like Marko said, only 50 ventilators or so in Victoria so better hope you get there first.
Impact on market, I would say lower rates + lower stress test level (compounded by lower rates) means more demand.
We will see a negative effect on real estate if the situation becomes bad enough to substantially increase unemployment. The tourism sector will certainly take a big hit this year but hard to tell if it will be enough to move unemployment to the point where people stop buying and owners are forced to sell. I’d say the disease spread will have to get worse before that happens.
Forget leather shoes, apparently the best defense against coronavirus is buying more condos.
I also dont think people will be rushing out to open houses to buy buy buy.
The bigger concern I believe is that owing to fear and anxiety, plus the potential of a lot of self imposed and forced quarantine, business will slow down and we will enter into a recession. That is what the BoC and the Fed is worried about. Not the stock market. They have data and indicators that have told them that what may be coming is ugly and that early intervention is the best option.
What does a major slowdown mean? Loss of jobs for one. Cant keep paying people if you dont have the sales of your product or service. But if you make money cheaper to borrow, hopefully small to med businesses borrow to make payroll and ride out the bad times.
Uncertainty and fear (aka emotions) can be quite the driver.
Sorry for the long post…. just have a ton of time as a government worker cause we do nothing… unlike real estate agents who truly contribute to the betterment of society.
Hypothetical is COVID-19 ends up being worse the expected is it better to be in real estate or out of real estate? If **** the fan somehow, I doubt they are running foreclosure court dates at the courthouse.
< Mr Potato said: “So average fatality rate is 3.5% world wide..”
I doubt it it’s anywhere close to 3.5% because most cases are so mild they don’t get reported. Simple math.
The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2.5% and it devastated the global population. This new virus is not even close to as deadly as the Spanish Flu. However, the COVID-19 could mutate into a more deadly virus, only time will tell.
BoC cuts rate by half a percent – 50BPS! Crazy times.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadians-cost-of-borrowing-going-down-amid-virus-concerns-1.4837947?cache=%3FclipId%3D89619
So average fatality rate is 3.5% world wide.. wonder what happens locally.. would it be double since we have considerably more elderlies and homeless people?
because I don’t work for the government and don’t have time for pointless long posts? Read Leo’s market report….that’s the unbias evidence.
I think this is a good thing. Means people, should they become sick or have to self quarantine, will be able to stay home and not possibly spread something by having to make a quick trip to the store.
Supply chains are not broken (yet?) so most items will be restocked at the next scheduled delivery (except masks and hand sanitizer probably).
Also, for a lot of people, it means they finally have that emergency earthquake supply that they’ve been meaning to get for some time i’m sure!
Costco was sold-out of toilet paper today, this is a real emergency!!
Lots of empty shelves at the grocery store today.
I wasn’t concerned about the COVID-19 virus until I watched this YouTube video about the history of the 1918 Spanish Flu. My guess is the medical experts who are concerned are likely worried about deadly virus mutations similar to 1918. Maybe it’s time to become a prepper and buy a shack in the Sooke hills.
https://youtu.be/UDY5COg2P2c
By the way the CMHC housing market assessments have entirely lost the plot recently. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/data-research/publications-reports/housing-market-assessment/2020-q01/housing-market-assessment-victoria-68649-2020-q01-en.pdf?rev=a40dff9c-3add-4282-9e4c-83775d32612b
All the previous issues remain that I’ve pointed out before, but now they include such insightful sentences as: “There are five models in total, each of which is estimated using four measures of house prices to generate twenty unique estimates of overvaluation. The selection of models is conducted with a set of cointegration tests, and the selected models are estimated with Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR). The maximum overvaluation gap is obtained from the model that has the largest gap between the actual price and the estimated price. The threshold is fixed at a critical value of 1.285 for a confidence level of 90%. “
Seems like they are keen to sprinkle in enough technical details to confuse/impress anyone reading, without enough technical detail to be of any use to actual economists. Either go technical in which case provide enough detail and code to make the result reproducible, or write for the public in which case most of it is nonsensical. Not sure who they think their audience is.
Patrick, one more point to add is that if you lose 50% of your equity portfolio then you would need a 100% gain to break even.
P.s. watch out for folks on here trying to tick it to you if the market ends up rallying for whatever ridiculous reason tomorrow 😉
It isn’t even typically defined as a bear market unless it’s at least -20%, so no way is the average bear market just -20%.
—- If you’re comfortable with possibility of losing 50% of the equity portion of your investments, then no problem, but if it would be a problem, consider taking some risk off. (moving to more bonds/less stocks)
btw) Note that if you’re in something like VGRO, that’s 80% stocks/20% bonds.
He’s as busy as he’s ever been.
High end.. Most likely is not cooling any further than it already has since 2017. I posted a chart a while back that showed that. Now whether it is heating up, hard to tell as I don’t talk to any buyers in the market for $7.5M homes so I have no idea how many are out there right now, what they are thinking, etc. Talk to someone like Jason Binab for that perspective.
On an actual sales basis, there are only very few sales above say $3M, so when the market does pick up it will take quite a while for that to be clear in the stats.
In the end it is impossible for the sub $1M market to be super hot while the high end is cool forever. Just like heat transfer you get a natural tendency in the market to equalize over time. Low end and high end prices get pushed closer together and you get more buyers making the leap to equalize activity.
I wonder if that’s it?
I’m guessing market valuations in the current paradigm aren’t as much about economic performance as they are liquidity. The actual economy, where most of the people live, is another matter entirely. You have the younger folks over indebted and/or underemployed, and the largest demographic ever that’s needing to retire and will be looking to cash out of the market.
Cutting does seem nuts in one context, but what might a better option be?
See what uncle Steve does on Wednesday, to whatever extent that actually matters.
A balanced, 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio is down 6.62% as of market close today. Hardly time to panic and crystalize losses by selling. If you keep 18 – 24 months of living expenses in cash, you can easily ride out the average bear market (-20%), which typically lasts 18 months. Some people view their mortgage-free home as their fixed income portion of their portfolio, but that’s a little too adventurous for me and doesn’t permit rebalancing.
Running out of money is the biggest risk for retirees of any age. Worrying about the stock markets going to zero and leaving us destitute is like worrying that a nuclear world war will make it harder to get to work on Monday.
Young people who don’t need the money for a long time can stay the course, and yes that will likely be the best strategy over the LONG term. Unfortunately many older people are also invested in ETFs. Not because they are reckless risk takers – it is because central banks have destroyed savings as an option, with the intent for forcing savers into riskier positions to get a return. (Witness the 0.50% cut in rates today- largely to help the stockholders). Surveys show that between 50-70% of older investors have some or all of their money in stocks.
So…..If someone held the S&P 500, and sold today, they would be selling about 11% below the peak. So depending on when they bought, they likely have made money, and at most have lost 11% (and aren’t “bled out”). They can re-invest when the virus has passed, or not, but at least they’ve limited their losses to 11%. Which is important, because unlike young people, they don’t have the option of regaining that money through waiting or through income earnings.
Marko said: “Starting to see some pick-up in the high-end of the market….$7.5 million dollar sale this morning”
Marko, I may sometimes be a contrarian, but I want you to know that I very much respect your knowledge and experience in the local real estate market, and for my part I always very much appreciate your contributions and thoughts. And I’m sure many others here do too. You’ve got to be one of the better ones out there.
All that said, I scratch my head when you occasionally use single cases in order to allude to the state of particular market conditions.
e.g.1 (Today) “Starting to see some pick-up in the high-end of the market..$7.5 million dollar sale this morning.”
e.g.2 (Previous thread) “really curious to see what March numbers bring….just sent a request to view a home north of $1.5 million and go the following reply “Hi Marco, dealing with 3 offers tonight. Will let you know if none of them stick. Thanks”
Taken on their one, each of the two examples don’t say anything except that (1) There was single high-end $7.5M sale. and (2) There was a single particularly popular $1.5M listing.
Similarly, I’m sure people would not take it seriously if I said, “Hey, starting to see a pick-up in foreclosures in Victoria…Just noticed a new foreclosure listed online today”. Foreclosures are happening all the time, yes including in Victoria, and my noticing a single new one today would be interesting but on its own not something that could make for generalizations.
So, I’m just wondering what’s going on. When you make comments like that, is there more evidence that you are not sharing? Or is it just a gut feeling you get after seeing a single instance of something you didn’t expect? I’d really like to believe you aren’t just taking an opportunity to bring out pom-poms and be a market cheerleader — but hey, its your profession, and you are also vested in local real estate several times over, so if thats what it is then feel free to be candid.
Note that I’m not saying that you’re allusions about market conditions are mistaken. Could end up being wrong, could end up being right. What I’m saying is I don’t understand why allusions are made without evidence, or with only one sale as evidence (or other evidence that you are aware of but haven’t shared).
Starting to see some pick-up in the high-end of the market….$7.5 million dollar sale this morning.
The potential for widespread infection certainly exists and there is currently no vaccine.. yet. It may not happen here. I don’t know. I have zero problem getting prepared for it anyway and stopping all non-necessary international travel and activities that put me in close contact with crowds in the meantime. Even if you are 30 with a small chance of dying, you could infect someone in their 70s with diabetes and then they have a 10% chance of dying. And the more people receiving medical care the greater demand on the system. I also get vaccinated for influenza every year for the same reason – I don’t want to get it or transmit it to vulnerable people.
Some history of the flu in British Columbia – and look! Dismissive naysayers like myself abounded then too.
https://theorca.ca/resident-pod/british-columbia-and-the-pandemic-of-1918/
I still say it’s overblown and those dumping their equities right now over it are going to get bled out…
Marko said: “From what I’ve ready 20/30s it’s less than 0.1% chances of killing you, but if thousands are infected some will die.”
I know a couple of front-line medical professionals in Victoria who think the whole Covid-19 thing is being overblown, for the reasons you and others have stated. Perhaps the whole thing is overblown, who knows.
BUT, why are various governments around the world taking emergency measures to keep tens /hundreds of millions of people home from work/travel/earning/spending, and deliberately strongly damaging their own economies/GDP in the short term?
China, for one, is not a country whose government and people one could generalize as being spendthrift.
So what gives? I have to believe that the world’s top leaders have the world’s top experts advising them. If they are crapping their pants enough to freak out at what a potential worst case scenario could be (notice I didn’t say what definitely will be, and certainly nothing that has happened yet), who are any of us to second-guess their well-informed motivations?
Stock markets are down 10% from all time peak and we get large emergency rate cuts. Nuts
The world is addicted to cheap money.
Maybe it’s just me, but it seems that when the first emergency interest rate cut since 2008 drops the interest rate by about 30% from about 1.5% to 1% that’s like yelling FIRE in a crowded theatre.
The government officials in the USA are trying to say everything is under control but then a massive 30% decrease in interest rates signals the theatre is ablaze.
This might have an opposite effect on the stock market to the intended effect.
From what I’ve ready 20/30s it’s less than 0.1% chances of killing you, but if thousands are infected some will die.
You can die from it if you are younger and healthy, but your chances are much lower and survival rates improve with good medical care. If there is, example, a shortage of ventilators, this contributes to the mortality rate among younger people.
What is known from the stats from China is that if you are elderly your the mortality rate is 10x that of those who are middle aged, and there were no deaths recorded for children under ten.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
Add:
In China, health care workers are dying of coronavirus—and exhaustion
“The pressure to treat patients can lead to exhaustion, overwork, and even death. As of Monday, the LA Times had tallied 18 deaths among medical workers on the front lines of the COVID-19 response. That number includes not only deaths from the virus itself but also deaths related cardiac arrest and other potential work-related stressors.
For instance, Song Yingjie, was the only pharmacist managing his hospital’s medicine prescriptions. After checking temperatures at a highway stop in the cold for 10 consecutive days, the 28-year-old died. According to the LA Times, the cause was cardiac arrest due to exhaustion. Similarly, 51-year-old Xu Hui, leader of her hospital’s virus control group, “lay down and never got up,” after working for 18 consecutive days, according to Chinese state media.
Another health worker died after being hit by a car while taking patients’ temperatures on a highway, the LA Times reports.”
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/02/27/coronavirus-workers
Many selfless health care workers are over worked and that affect theirs health, therefore they are more susceptible disease/viruses. See below link.
PS. I do not know what it is like for doctors in China, but Vietnam physicians are expected to work overtime when there are emergencies (which happen pretty much everyday), with out overtime pay or time off in lieu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoZHhPr9Xx8
I predict no “game over” this week, nor next week, nor the following week.
Of course I don’t consider a measly 10-20% market decline as “game over” in any case.
Tom Konrad at altenergystocks.com is also excellent.
Yes. Looking for an alternative that is more sustainable. This guy so far is the best resource I’ve found: https://www.sustainableeconomist.com/
And interview with him here: https://canadiancouchpotato.com/2017/05/18/podcast-8-couch-potato-with-a-conscience/
Does it bother you that you’re investing in the oil & gas sector?
The JIT (just in time) supply chain has been severely disrupted by the COVID-19 virus. Since a large percentage of JIT components come from China, I suppose factories worldwide that rely of the JIT manufacturing technique will slowly cease production until the supply chain is back in full production. For example Boeing and AirBus use components and individual parts from around the world and both companies are devoted to JIT, so consequently their production lines will cease production soon. I wonder if new dwelling construction relies on any critical components that will interrupt new construction. For example, where does most electrical wire come from? where do nail-gun nails come from? where does ABS & PVC resin come from? where do plumbing fittings come from? where does fibreglass fabric and resin come from? where do tiles and grout come from?
The answer is China for a large percentage of all these products.
Gonna need a citation on that.
It’s killed multiple doctors in their 20s and 30s in China.
Somehow I doubt they all had underlying health problems.
WHO released data on 44,000 COVID-19 patients.
81% reported mild symptoms.
However, they suspect that most people with mild symptoms are not reported because the people don’t even visit a hospital, so consequently the 81% figure is more likely closer to 95% of COVID-19 infections are very mild to extremely mild. Mathematically that implies that the fatal cases are actually less than 1%.
The media certainly does a poor job of reporting facts. I had to search for accurate information. This BBC article is one of the better summaries I’ve found. Frankly, it seems the virus is relatively harmless to healthy people.
What is coronavirus and what are the symptoms? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer#Performance_of_Cramer's_investments
I am not trying to predict the market.
I was trying to highlight that predicting the market is futile, so trying to time the market will usually lead to locking in losses and missing out on bounce backs.
My prediction of a bounce back today if the sun came up was just as likely as a further drop (not sure I would use the term “game over”) if a US citizen died of the coronavirus.
Also using something that will happen with (almost) certainty to predict something uncertain is a logical fallacy.
My trading pattern before #coronavirus: BUY VGRO, BUY VGRO, BUY VGRO
My trading pattern after #coronavirus: BUY VGRO, BUY VGRO, BUY VGRO
The meaning is just as how it reads, I was suggesting that if people are trading the current market then they should consider closing out their position by end of trading day on Friday because of the uncertainty of the open on Monday morning (the open on the current trading day could be significantly different compared to the close on the previous trading day, especially over the past weekend with the current volatile/fluid situation).
Also the term trading is not the same as having money in the market.
Former Landlord said: “S&P 500 up 4.6% today. Anybody that listened to the post that said to pull out all their money out of stocks before the weekend, just missed out on a bounce back”
This drama has a looong way to play out yet, I wouldn’t start taking any bows yet on any predictions/advice, on either side.
“Dow bulls are looking extremely optimistic about the impact that united rate cuts could have on the global economy as it fights”
….
“Not everyone is so convinced. Prominent CNBC analyst Jim Cramer made it clear Tuesday that he believes a Fed rate cut is meaningless without a vaccine to fight the spread of the disease.”
….
“Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, agrees with Cramer. She believes the Dow is merely experiencing a dead-cat bounce…”
“… writing in a Financial Times op-ed: If the Fed does step in, the aptly named dead-cat bounce in which prices recover only for a short while, should not be mistaken for resurrected animal spirits. No amount of rate cuts will cure a single coronavirus patient, nor will anyone frightened of illness decide to buy a new house, a car, or even a night out at a restaurant.”
Given the concern out there that a rate cut is meaningless when the underlying problem is not going away (and only getting worse), in an already extremely lower-interest environment how stupid would it be for governments to waste one of the last remaining rate cuts in a way that can’t actually help things?
So are you saying I was misrepresenting what you were trying to say in the above quote?
Maybe I misunderstood what you meant by “holding large positions through this weekend”. I am not very versed in stock market speak, since I don’t do any trades myself. I assumed by not “holding large positions”, you meant pulling your money out of the market. If that actually means something else, I apologize for “revising” your quote.
Former Landord, yes they sure did miss the bounce or they could have bought back in during the morning. I said if you are trading in this market to not have any large positions open over the weekend, I do love how you cherry pick certain quotes out of context and completely revise other ones though. I was not expecting a rally today given the news over the weekend though, so that one I was wrong which probably explains why I don’t work in equities.
S&P 500 up 4.6% today. Anybody that listened to the post that said to pull out all their money out of stocks before the weekend, just missed out on a bounce back.
Done. 563 sales for the month.
I’m restructuring how I report data, and I’m going to move all the data to the market summary page so that there is always one page to go to for all the latest data on a weekly, monthly, annual basis. Then there is no need to extract it from the various posts.
Les S said:
“Mortality increases with age, with the highest mortality among people over 80 years of age
(CFR 21.9%). ”
Good thing Victoria doesn’t have a disproportionately older population than the rest of Canada.
(From the previous thread:)
No, I think COVID-19 is making for some genuinely interesting times. It’s not every day that China’s carbon emissions drop 25%, the stock market gets this spooked, and multiple whole cities get quarantined. Oh and global economic growth could halve, if things get worse.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/covid-19-coronavirus-climate-carbon-emissions-china-economy-1.5477466
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51700935
Hi Leo
Any chance you could fill in the weekly numbers, courtesy of the VREB chart on your previous posting?
Tons of misinformation out there. Here is the WHO report which is likely the best summary to date: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
“Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years
and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular
disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively
rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst
individuals aged under 19 years. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have
developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).”
Mortality increases with age, with the highest mortality among people over 80 years of age
(CFR 21.9%). The CFR is higher among males compared to females (4.7% vs. 2.8%). By
occupation, patients who reported being retirees had the highest CFR at 8.9%. While
patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a CFR of 1.4%, patients with comorbid
conditions had much higher rates: 13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for
diabetes, 8.4% for hypertension, 8.0% for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6% for cancer.
Most over 65 (one in their 50s). It got into a nursing home in Kirkland somehow (local transmission), and I believe 4 of the 6 deaths have been from there.
You see how the paramedics are dressed though when they’re pulling people out of the nursing home (a gown and a mask over their mouth), and you know they’re not even close to prepared.
Thanks!
Any reports on average age of deaths?
Up to 6 deaths now in Washington state from the Corona virus…
So pretty much what no one was talking about w/r to condos and insurance?
Great counter-example.
Listed a tad under 900k but will go over 900k.
Could you add a bit of context please? Price range perhaps? General area. I keep hearing of all these multiple offers and selling within days but as Leo has pointed out, it isn’t in every price range. If those five offers are on a $700k house in the core then that to me is pretty normal and has been going on for some time. If those five offers are on a > $900k house in the core then that is a different story entirely.
We are coming pretty crappy sales last year so of course this year is going to look better.
You read this blog and think the world is coming to an end then you go show a house and it has 5 offers on it the next day even without an offer delay….I guess nothing has changed on HHV in the last 13 years 🙂
Unit sold this morning for $2.865 million with new strata fees north of $2,000/month.
This is why people keep coming back Leo.
All you’d get from the papers in the headline numbers, and the only reason why would be that housing is back in vogue.
Personally I don’t see how it blows over in a few weeks, even with China’s drastic measures, it’s been over a month, and they’re still confirming 200+ people a day with the virus. I doubt any western country will be able to go to the extreme that China did, and it’s already blowing up in South Korea, Iran and Italy.
The Shoal Point condos currently have 13 out of 161 units on the market, but I have no idea what would be considered normal.