Modelling the Morbid
It’s a gloomy time in the news out there with nothing but alarming stories dominating the headlines and bad economic data piling up. So I thought I’d write a more upbeat article about when we’re all going to die.
A couple years ago I put together a little interactive chart to visualize demographic data for Victoria from 1986 to 2041 (based on BC Stats population projections). That has been updated with current numbers and is reproduced again below. Mouse over the chart and use the arrow buttons at the top right or the selector to change the year.
As you can see, the population in Victoria, already one of the oldest in Canada, will continue to become older as an average. According to the BC Stats projections (methodology here), the percentage of the population over 65 will go from 23% to 31% in the next 20 years. That’s where we turn morbid, and look at the mortality rate by age. The data below is from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and was checked against the deaths data from StatsCan (13-10-0710-01) and was found to be broadly similar.
Life expectancy is 82 years in Canada now, but if you’ve made it to 80, you can expect to live another 9 years. So another, potentially more positive way to look at this kind of data is by expected remaining life at a given age.
But glass half full or empty, everyone dies in the end, and we can combine the mortality tables with our demographic information to get a sense of approximately how many that is by year. These data were sanity checked against actual deaths in the capital region (Table 17-10-0136-01) for the years 2006 to 2018 and actual deaths were within 5% of projected which means we can be reasonably confident in the mortality tables. For accuracy of the overall projections, of course it depends on migration and many other things, but we can be certain that our existing deaths will trend up as the population ages approximately as projected.
A few things to notice here:
- Both the absolute number of deaths and deaths as a percentage of the population will continue increasing until the end of BC Stats’ projections. Unclear when the death rate would be expected to top out.
- The rate of increase ramps up around 2030 when boomers get into the higher mortality years.
- Currently about 1% of our population is expected to die every year, while in 20 years it will be about 1.7%.
- A faster rate of population growth than expected would push down the deaths as a percent of overall population (by how much depends on whether the growth is coming more from younger or older people). BC Stats projects a long term growth rate of about 1% whereas current growth rate is 2% but it does fluctuate.
What does it mean for new listings and inventory? Well, there are too many unknowns there to really speculate. It depends on household size in that cohort, ownership rate, whether people have heirs, and a hundred other things. Also turning deaths into listings is a little too morbid even for this post. What we do know is that as people age they buy fewer homes, and sell more homes. At a certain age those curves cross over and people become net sellers. Research shows that that age differs by region, and we can be sure with our high house prices that the peak buying age is much later in Victoria than in the chart below. However eventually the crossover point happens everywhere.
So after many decades of our lumpy demographics being a boost to housing demand, it will increasingly become a drag instead. We can see that single family house prices, having been excellent performers over the decades, are slowing down their appreciation rate, with each price runup peaking at a lower annualized rate than the last. That’s mostly for other reasons than demographics, but demographics will turn from a tailwind to a headwind. I still expect a good long run return in land, but don’t expect to match what was seen in the past.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/16/what-could-covid-19-do-to-real-estate
Trump – just when you think he can’t do worse…
Don’t look Cadborosaurus. Just take a deep breath and know the odds are highly in favour of a rebound when this is all done.
Trump offers German company $1 BILLION for exclusive rights to their new COVID-19 vaccine. German authorities are pissed off at Trump and will prevent the exclusive transfer of vaccine rights to the USA.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-tried-to-pay-germans-scientists-for-coronavirus-cure-2020-3
Ow my stocks. I don’t have a lot but they’re down another 16% today, 114% the past month. I’m going to stop looking
“There is increasing alignment internationally“
Lol, is this supposed to be a leaked press release or something? It sounds like it was written by a 12 year old.
What is the source? Reddit?
Ks112 what is your source….
“Apparently this will be announced tomorrow :
COVID-19 in Canada
There is increasing alignment internationally that the only way to stop COVID-19 is to stop people from interacting with one another (“social distancing”). The key is to eliminate the ability for the virus to transfer. This is the “flatten the curve” argument you’ve been hearing for the past couple of days.
To do this, all levels of government are working to take extraordinary measures to keep “
Doubt it. They aren’t afraid for their lives unlike the average Joe and I think measurements put in place today will be so extreme that it will flatten the curve and prevent collapse of health care system.
Marko, your hospital friends will be singing a different tune in a couple of days.
Apparently this will be announced tomorrow :
COVID-19 in Canada
There is increasing alignment internationally that the only way to stop COVID-19 is to stop people from interacting with one another (“social distancing”). The key is to eliminate the ability for the virus to transfer. This is the “flatten the curve” argument you’ve been hearing for the past couple of days.
To do this, all levels of government are working to take extraordinary measures to keep Canadians safe. The federal Cabinet is meeting later today and the Ontario provincial cabinet meets on Monday.
So far, these measures have varied from one province and city to the next. We expect those measures to align rapidly into a coordinated approach to ensure effective social distancing.
What is important to recognize is that most governments are making decisions today for today based on information from today. They are planning for a health crisis and severe short-term economic consequences. Medium and longer term economic planning is under active consideration but is subject to real uncertainty as to what measures will be needed when and where.
Based on what we have seen in other jurisdictions and what we’ve been hearing from our sources in multiple levels of government, here’s the direction this is going within days:
Governments will cancel all non-essential medical procedures. Ontario has announced this today.
International travel will be shut down. It’s unclear if that will include the United States.
Quarantines for those arriving from abroad will become mandatory.
Governments will pass employment legislation to support income.
Governments will enact emergency legislation directing manufacturers to make ventilators and related medical equipment as there are only ~5000 in Canada. This has already happened in the UK.
Governments will work with financial institutions to find a way to delay mortgage and loan repayments.
Governments will announce massive stimulus spending.
Employers are being asked to let everyone who is able to work from home. Everyone else who cannot work from home but is deemed non-essential, is restricted by the “250+ gathering” rules. In some places, like Ottawa, no gatherings of any kind are permitted.
If you take away nothing else from this email, take this: we are in completely uncharted territory. This is a state of emergency whether it has been declared or not.
Based on this information, we recommend that you start making decisions for your businesses and your families accordingly for the next six weeks.
Morbid as it is, but wouldn’t it be less consumers translate to less environmental damage, or as they called it a save the planet measure?
Hard to say, but perhaps rate will drop even further due to today $600 billions credit loosening announcement.
I was told last Thursday we could be shut down for 2 weeks possibly more starting this Monday.
We definitely do not want to do what the US is doing. CDC modeled between 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths depending on containment measures. I’m hoping that the PM declares a state of emergency and orders all sorts of things be shut down, including crowds in Costco.
Ref the rate cuts… hope most got a rate hold over the last two weeks. You will probably see mortgage rates going up tomorrow. Risk needs to be priced in.
Must admit the HHV has been some pretty good reading these last couple of days. Any predictions for tomorrow? Another rate cut for Canada? I think the BC announcement will be schools closed indefinitely like AB. Federal announcement will be borders closed and strict rules around gathering places etc. Like LA / Seattle. Or maybe we jump straight to lockdown and really flatten the curve.
Government, my department at least: info circular just went out that unless your position is deemed essential you’re not to report to work for the next 3 weeks to prevent the spread of the virus.
Let’s hope all these measures bring us closer to Korea than Italy. Amazing how successful Korea has been. It can be done.
Combine with global warming that shorten virulent season making the island/s the prefect place to be.
that’s not good news for patients requiring complex care. I wonder if it could put a strain on emergency rooms.
Crappy. Hope your family is keeping safe.
I wonder how consumer sentiment will recover when this thing blows over. Will people hop back on flights and cruises right away when the virus is gone or will it take a few years for people to be confident again?
A lot more panic than here. Croatia is also totally screwed as 20% of GDP is tourism.
I do have two places in Croatia where I could live off the land/sea but if it came to that I wouldn’t be able to get there.
I just received a notice from my doctors office letting me know they are moving to appointments by phone only, with an in office consult after only where recommended, and urging me to follow social distancing asap quoting this article: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-coronavirus-pandemic-canada-needs-get-serious-about-social-distancing/?fbclid=IwAR28PvEgnUCllRRzb53KUUZRhfa7nxd_0Tg0bM5NyzWowcLBt8qKjjSjEHQ
I’ve got my questrade order in.
This is where it comes in handy that my folks have 160 acres in the interior. In case we need to pull out full walking dead protocols.
How’s Croatia doing?
We do live in one of the least densely populated countries in the world and the weather is improving..tent and head to Port Renfrew 🙂
H5N1 bird flu has a 60% mortality rates in humans.
But at that point I don’t give a crap about my portfolio.
Lack of respiratory therapists will be a North America specific problem that will make our healthcare system collapse faster than others we’ve seen ->
https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUS/comments/fiwle9/lack_of_respiratory_therapists_will_be_a_north/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Italy no longer thinks it’s overblown. One must admit, stuff is happening pretty fast.
As someone who doesn’t have any money invested in the stock market, I’m probably in a very small minority of people. Haven’t lost any money (real or paper), and won’t gain any on the eventual upswing, either. I’m just a fascinated spectator!
Mutation with increased virulence. Would be bad news…
My sister is a nurse, she’s been the least worried of the family.
Then again exactly a week ago I talked to some friends, both of whom are nurses, about how we were thinking of cancelling our trip to Washington. They laughed and thought I was being alarmist and buying into the media hype. How quickly things change.
“One measure being deployed is that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is reducing the amount of capital Canada’s six biggest banks must carry.”
https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/banks-warned-off-buybacks-dividend-hikes-as-capital-buffer-loosened-for-crisis
And that’s why it’s a good thing that regulators have been cranking up capital requirements for the last decade. You never know when you might need the buffer.
I can’t think of any circumstance that I would want to stop short of income loss of course. If stock market went to -80% or something completely out there, then we’ll have much bigger problems than my decimated portfolio.
But so far I can’t imagine any scenarios yet where this isn’t temporary.
Of course hard to say that if it went on for 2 years if there wouldn’t be some very long lasting damage to the economy. Biggest thing might be triggering a debt crisis.
🙂 Just a tad.
Wow, 2-3 years is awesome, but IMHO 6 months is plenty as most would be able to find employment by then.
On a positive note I called a friend leaving the ICU tonight and he was like
“yea, staff are a bit worried, but everyone knows it is way overblown”
11:00am eastern time tomorrow, Trudeau will address the nation. Get prepped, I have a feeling no one is buying a house next week even if they want to buy one.
At what point do you stop buying? I wouldn’t want to buy so much that I wouldn’t be able to survive for 2-3 yrs without income.
I left almost 70% of my holding beside my house in equities, and the rest in cash since 1.5 year ago (dumb luck). I purchased more equities on Friday with the cash on hand, plus I borrowed from secured line of credit to buy more on the up/down swing in the next couple of weeks.
Financial crisis saw markets lose 50%. Right now they are down near 30%. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit -50% before we turn back up. Who knows, maybe it could be more. Won’t stop me from buying in at current levels though.
Starting to see it in the last two days but on both sides of the equation. I was supposed to list a really nice home on Christmas Hill next week (family wants to relocate to Oak Bay) but they will hold off listing for now as they don’t have to move.
Also, a couple of delay offer situations taking place tomorrow afternoon…really curious how they play out.
This happened tonight, at 8:45 p.m. Mountain Time:
The City of Calgary has declared a state of local emergency. All city-owned fitness facilities, pools, arenas and public libraries will close.
Mayor Nenshi says this move is an “intentional overreaction” in the wake of the first case of community transmission of COVID-19 in Calgary.
Businesses will also be required to have no more than 250 people or half of their fire occupancy load at any given time, whichever is lower. That will include restaurants and bars.
“Buy when there’s blood in the street.” – Rothschild
No one can predict the absolute bottom or top, but one thing for sure that you are getting a discount of 20% or more (recovery in 2 years or less) if you get in now on the stock market. And, RE tend to lag behind the stock market from 6 months to 24 months.
It could just be a coincident, but my hunch as history has shown that house price spiked post market crashed. So millenials with job security may want to sharpen their pencils otherwise they maybe SOL on the next run up, specially with cheap money on the loose.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-16-2020-220735000.html
No. Market impact is temporary. Doesn’t mean it won’t go down further though.
More evidence the market is starting to turn down.
What’s a retail investor to do during these times? Is it reasonable to continue the usual advice of buy-hold for both equities and real estate? Or is this time different?
I’m sick and tired of people bragging how they went into all cash in Jan and Feb, and how the rest of us following the evidence-based method of buy-hold were stupid or ignorant.
Great idea:
Grocery stores should do the same.
None of the fiscal stimulus or the lower interest rates will work until the virus turns around. No one is buying anything if they’re locked down at home, no matter how low the interest rate is. All money should go towards fighting the virus and getting people through the time when they can’t bring in an income.
After the virus passes, we shouldn’t even need the stimulus, the economy should pick up again as before.
Maybe the PHOs just look especially competent next to some of the politicians. As I said, I think the government messaging on the pandemic c ould have been better.
Wealth transfer was my thought, too.
If it happens, for some millennials, the Bank of Mom & Dad will be getting a hefty injection of capital.
I’ve been reading the Calgary Herald a lot lately, and Alberta’s PHO is also a rock star in that province. Is it the same in every province, I wonder, or is there a dud out there somewhere in Canada?
Alberta just closed all schools indefinitely:
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/live-at-430-p-m-province-to-provide-update-on-covid-19-response/wcm/066a889c-ab39-4ecf-8a6f-8fb925082822/
As to whether teachers will be paid, it’s unknown as of yet. Classes are “cancelled” but “schools are not being closed at this point.” And teachers “will likely be expected to report to work.”
https://www.teachers.ab.ca/News%20Room/Issues/Pages/COVID-19-FAQs.aspx
So bets on the chances of schools re-opening after spring break is over on the 30th? Apparently they’re meeting to make a decision on the 26th.
At this point I’d say the chance is about 0.0%
I guess. Don’t try to reason with me, I apparently have more pee in my corn flakes than I know what to do with. haha. 😀
Totoro, I do like one thing from your worldometers website, their graph is available as logarithmic which shows the proper graph for an exponential trend, i.e. COVID-19 spread and growth. The WHO Situation Report shows a linear graph which misrepresents interpretation of an exponential growth chart.
The worldometers logarithmic graph clearly shows the virus infection speed is tapering off significantly.
Prudent fiscal policy is to help people right now, many of which will suffer extreme economic pain through this.
So yes, helicopter money may well be an excellent idea to help people weather the storm.
LeoM – the underlying source data for this site is all linked onto the site and is taken from official health department sources in each country. You can investigate the links yourself just by clicking through. The WHOs reports might be good for lots of things, but the numbers are changing too fast for 1/day accuracy imo.
Totoro, I’ll stick with the official numbers published by WHO, once per day, consistently at the same time each day. That’s the only way to accurately see trends based on time. The WHO also lets you see Situation Reports from past days which makes it easy to accurately track trends or look back to see the situation on a specific date. The WHO reports also give a daily briefing and world maps showing severity on that specific date and map location.
US Fed is boosting its assets by 700 billion bucks now. I wonder if there’s any more babies we can throw out with the bathwater. How about helicopter money? Almost like this is the perfect excuse to abandon all pretense of prudent policy behaviour.
Goofs.
Friend of mine that I believe got Mrs Fool and I sick last week is now (according to the nurse) a suspected covid-19 case. Just awaiting the results. He had recently gone through Pearson International and then came here. Fever, aches and almost uncontrollable coughing. Lasted about 3 days but is doing much better now.
If that’s what he had, sure hit him a lot harder than it did us, if he was the source of our sickness.
LeoM – the WHOs report is already dated unfortunately – they only publish at 10am their time each day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I assume that if they are planning for border restrictions and the like, that they are coordinating with airports airlines, border agency, other countries, to make sure everyone is prepared for what is to come. Or would you rather have an announcement like Trump did on Wednesday where he took everybody by surprise and it turned out his announcement had numerous inaccuracies.
Marko, you are, perhaps deliberately, missing the point I meant to make I think.
You are again resorting to the fallacy of relative privation which is a straw man argument meant to dismiss my position – but not fairly by addressing the points I am actually talking about ie. via scientific evidence or perhaps a straight out argument about why those over 45 are worth less than those under 45.
Your appeal to worse things in the world seems to be a way of dismissing or minimizing my concerns about the pandemic via an argument that because people ignore the existence of more important problems in the world all the time caring about this one is hypocritical. It’s not imo.
It is not about being a great person or not – or making yourself feel better than you are. It is about the response you are having to this particular issue. Right now. Right here.
We can care about some things more than others and that is ok. That is normal. And locus of control is a real thing. We all have some locus of control things that are critical right now imo.
James is in fact correct, and many sites update multiple times during the day. For example, this one, and the total is 6,515 dead, 682 new deaths today. Details, and sources are provided below the table.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Also, please don’t use the term “fake news.”
I’m not sure what you think I said because I don’t understand your response. This has nothing to do with variable vs fixed.
I know you care, but at the end of the day your cat expenses could helping a starving person in a third world country.
It is easy to say we care when we live in one of the most expensive cities in one of the most prosperous countries in the world in our bubble called Victoria.
I am in the same boat. I’ll spend $200 to go to a soccer game, but I don’t try to exert how much more ethical and moral I am compared to others. I simply realize my ticket could have really helped someone but I choose to ignore it. I am just as much of a problem as everyone else.
The official messaging surrounding this pandemic has truly been atrocious. Feds are apparently preparing an important statement to be conveyed tomorrow. What the hell are they waiting for? Trying to build buzz for clicks?
Not sure which fake news site you’re getting your number from.
The WHO publishes a situation report daily and today’s official number, on March 15, is:
“5735 deaths”. Only 343 new since yesterday, worldwide.
Here is the link to the WHO Situation Reports:
March 14th:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_6
March 15th
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=33daa5cb_6
WHO COVID-19 Situation Reports Index:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
Our local rock star, Dr. Bonnie Henry, spoke yesterday about the antiviral regimen that is being used to treat the sickest patients. But no, there’s no vaccine.
Whoa. Talk about resorting to the fallacy of relative privation. You can do better, that is just a crappy attitude imo. Believe it or not I can care about both. For example, just because I have a cat and pay for her food doesn’t mean I’m okay with human starvation!
I cared about what was going on in China. I care even more now it is in my neighbourhood because it is impacting my neighbours and potentially my family. That is just natural for a number of attachment reasons, and the ability to do something about it.
I also care about 81 year olds suffering and dying from avoidable causes.
And that sure is a big spread between 45 and 81 to gloss over – the 45-80 age range has reported a very significant amount of deaths and hospitalizations. I have lots of people in this category in my life who are valuable people objectively and subjectively. And at least eight medical workers died in China from coronavirus, including one doctor who was 29 and another who was 34 and two others in their 50s.
If we are talking about triage I agree that survivability comes into play because the objective limits are reached. If we are talking about our society, I hope that these views are not applied to my health care starting at age 45. There is a reason we have universal medical care and discrimination based on age is prohibited in our society under the Human Rights Act. These things reflect societal values.
There are always as many buyers as people who have to sell. What has to drop is what they are willing to pay.
You are ignoring that over the last 10 years on this blog I’ve talked numerous times (backed up by some of what you’ve posted) about the fact if you commit to a lifetime of only variable mortgages it is almost statistically impossible not to be ahead at the end of the day. I applied common sense grade 11 statistics to my decision making going variable on mortgages. I wouldn’t say my benefit has been by pure luck or wealth or intelligence.
You don’t need an university degree to understand some of the posts you wrote about variable vs fixed in the past.
I don’t get your point either. Are you not concerned that people are walking Teddy along Dallas Rd and dropping 2k on vet bills every year when there are people dying across the globe from malnutrition?
Let’s face it…..not one cared about this while it was contained in China. Now that it might affect them personally everyone is freaking out.
Yes, an average 81 year old dying from COVID19 is a tragedy but so are all the other tragedies that occur on a daily basis in third world countries every day that we do **** all about.
At the end of the day I think a virus with an average death age of 81 is a lot more manageable than something that would kill on average 45 year old doctors and nurses. It will be managed and the world will not end. Everyone will forget about it and we will continue to let people starve across the globe.
They floated a herd immunity idea a few days ago. It was panned and they replaced it with the “elderly to isolate” plan, which doesn’t involve herd immunity. It just protects the elderly from getting COVID-19., which I see as a great idea. I agree that seeking herd immunity is a bad idea. I’ve heard that regions in China that are close to disease free like GuangDong tested a random sample of the population and found only 1/700 had been exposed (antibodies present). That meant they were able to get rid of it without everyone getting infected.
https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/15/21180414/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson
“ The UK backs away from “herd immunity” coronavirus proposal amid blowback
The UK’s chief science adviser suggested allowing the coronavirus to spread to build immunity. Government ministers said they’ll promote self-isolation instead.”
I might be confused then because this article has today’s date and is a commentary on Britain’s plan. Does Britain have two plans? Seems like not enough is known about the virus for any type of herd immunity to be a sure thing?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/uk-covid-19-strategy-questions-unanswered-coronavirus-outbreak
That article you referenced is talking about a different idea than I referred to. It talks about intentionally exposing the young to the virus, to “achieve herd immunity.” This is not what I was talking about, nor is it what is described by the U.K. here. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873 You’ll notice this article is just about isolating elderly, not exposing the young.
The idea that is a good idea is to isolate the elderly and vulnerable at home to reduce their exposure as low as possible. This is in addition to the best practices to avoid spread within the rest of the population (hand washing/ social distancing). But inevitably there have to be some people moving around to keep society functioning, and that shouldn’t be elderly or vulnerable people. If 50,000 people get infected in Victoria, it’s better that only 1000 of them are elderly than 10,000.
373 comments? The HHV chitter chatter index all-time high?
I refer you to my earlier comment. We don’t know the true numbers of infected because the health authorities are not testing everyone with symptoms. If an elderly patient was admitted to hospital with pneumonia before the test was even developed, they wouldn’t be tested for it, no?
Hospital hallways full of sick people are not news; it’s normal, especially in flu season.
Does anyone really think that the TP hoarders won’t be clogging the emerg when they get the sniffles?
Am I the only one concerned about the 1799 other deaths of people over 47? I am not sure of your point here?
Here’s a real perspective.
Up to date numbers are actually 6500 COVID-19 deaths. That’s how fasts it’s changing.
Week up to yesterday was actually 2234 deaths.
The week before that was 622 deaths.
Can you guess where it’ll be at the end of next week?
And the week after?
Unless they get this under control, it’ll be higher than the seasonal influenza total.
By the way, between Italy and Spain, there were over 500 deaths, today.
Nobody apparently. My comment was a lighthearted observation that in the short term drastic action by the Fed might spook people more than reassure them.
If the Fed action wasn’t alarming enough there was Trump’s incoherent babbling. The only positive was that he made everyone who spoke after him, even Pence, look like a genius in comparison.
So there is MERS and SARS which went away because they didn’t spread until 5 days after you had symptoms and we quarantined everyone who got it. Then there’s the common cold, 3 different strains, that we’ve never developed a vaccine for, and have never gone away. You don’t know what you’re talking about. No coronavirus has ever gone away by vaccine or natural exhaustion. They think they can come up with a vaccine for this, but it can take a long time ie: ZIka, they’re still in testing stages now, for something that came about 4 years ago. HIV, no vaccine available. Ebola just had a vaccine approved last year.
I think that idea is nuts. We should be doing what South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan have done, not going even further into transmission than Italy or Spain has.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
When you look at last 30 years of stats the best time to buy has been in conjunction with the lowest sales volumes. Look at 2009…you had a three month window to buy for a 10% discount and that window closed literally in a matter of a month.
Same thing COULD happen this time. Governments manage to contain, maybe Trump’s prediction of warmer weather helps too, and BOC of Canada is too slow to react and you see a wave of buyers trying to take advantage of free money once they realize the world is not about to end and they still need a house with a yard for their dog who survived the virus as well.
I would hold off on an investment and I wouldn’t be getting into any crazy over ask bidding wars but if I was looking for a place to live I would be seeking out a panicked seller. If you have a solid job and you lose it, everyone else has also lost their job. At least you have a title to your name.
I think that is wishful thinking. Why don’t we have old people with pneumonia lining the corridors of hospitals like in Italy?
+1 spent 2 hrs outside today.
It would also put a lot of $ into baby-boomer pockets via inheritances.
I was at Save On Foods on Pandora today at 11:30 am and it was slow. Everything fully stocked. I was shocked to see cans of soup on sale and stocked.
Italy has over 1,800 deaths and I am reading a story right now that the youngest person has died at 47 yrs old and he was at home, not at the hospital. Just to put things into perspective…look at all the young tragic deaths at UVIC this year (Banf bus trip, Iran plane crash, suicides). People still riding buses and taking planes.
Fear is interesting.
I hear ya. I suggested 2 weeks ago that maybe it wasn’t the best idea for my spouse to go visit friends in Vancouver, travelling by public transit. 4-5 days later, we had the ‘mild, flu-like symptoms’.
On the bright side, anyone who has had the flu since the end of January has probably had Covid19. It’s been in community transmission mode for longer than we’ve been led to believe. Every province runs an annual flu monitoring program for seasonal flu; I find it hard to believe that it wasn’t picked up on. Privacy legislation and ethical concerns would have prevented the information from being released, much like in Washington State. Anyone remember the Therapeutics Initiative fiasco under the Libs? Researchers were burnt at the stake for alleged misuse of data, and one of them committed suicide as a result.
Who is saying all is well?
Britain seems to have the right idea. They’re planning for all seniors (70+) or people with preexisting conditions to self-isolate at home for a long period (estimate 4-6 months), with very limited visitors and groceries delivered. The goal being to specifically limit infections in these groups. Then they’ll mainly be dealing with mild/moderate infections in younger people. This seems a brilliant idea, and might allow society to continue to function as it builds up herd immunity to get rid of the virus.
Good grief. You should learn some basic terminology before attempting to lecture us.
It’s “coronavirus,” not “corona virus.”
Type the term into Google or Wikipedia and it will offer to fix it for you.
Futures hit limit down (-5%), despite the huge intervention (“rate cut to zero”) by the Fed. Dow futures down 1000. Looks to be another brutal day on the stock market tomorrow. http://www.cnbc.com
Comparing it to the flu right now is really misleading, dangerously so for public sentiment/action. We are in the beginning of a pandemic. There are no antivirals, nor is there a vaccine. Thirty-seventy percent will get infected and the mortality rate is much, much higher than the flu – and much worse if more are affected in a short period of time.
Looks like stock futures are down big again
Last week total deaths worldwide from seasonal influenza = ~8000
Last week deaths from COVID-19 = 1600
Total COVID-19 deaths = 5393
Don’t get fixated on total numbers; they are meaningless, as testing is being limited by strict inclusion criteria. What we should be watching is the rate of new infections. The rate of spread will dictate how badly overwhelmed the healthcare system will become. Once it’s overwhelmed, doctors have to start making the hard decisions about who gets the last ventilator.
It’s not just Covid19 sufferers who need vents; trauma patients, ODs, sepsis patients, burn victims, post-operative complications, etc. could all be in need of them, too.
Also, about panic – reliable information is a good antidote I’ve found. Of course, there is just a minor chance it also makes you look like a bit of a nut when you make your whole family start the social distancing a week ahead of everyone else…
But…
Keep it in perspective:
Last week total deaths worldwide from seasonal influenza = ~8000
Last week deaths from COVID-19 = 1600
Total COVID-19 deaths = 5393
Yeah, I’ve been wondering about recession as well. I don’t know enough about it.
Great, let’s scare the herd with an unprecedented series of rate drops just before our infections numbers go hockey stick. I think it would be prudent to expect a sharp increase in restrictive measures designed to keep folks apart, as well.
If you really want a nice dinner out, better do it quick. When the new testing centres start reporting infection numbers, it will ramp up both the panic level and the pressure on all levels of government to shut down schools, borders, and non-essential businesses.
The coronavirus will pass; when it does, people will then wake up to the other problem we have, namely a recession.
Benvenuti in Italia
Of course, but I’m not alone, I’d even hazard a guess that I’m in the majority. As Leo S pointed out, the number of buyers has to drop below the numbers who have to sell. Sellers who need to sell in the next four months if things get locked down will probably be in a minority, especially as mortgage repayments will likely be suspended if this occurs.
Since this week’s HHV topic is about “Modelling the Morbid”, here’s another morbid thought.
According to the Medical Journal Lancet article I posted earlier, the virus is killing predominantly older folks, most of whom have pre-existing medical conditions.
This virus could have a profound impact on real estate in Victoria and other cities with an older population of house owners. To be morbidly blunt, a lot of very nice houses could suddenly appear on our local market as this virus culls the old folks who are sick and weak. On my block alone there are three or four older folk house-owners who fall into the categories most at risk according to the Lancet article; extrapolate that to the entire city and you’ll get a scary number.
All the graphs LeoS posted in this week’s blog post might soon need a major update based Italy’s experience.
I have found the move to social distancing to be underwhelming given the data and advice from ER doctors and epidemiologists from around the world.
It is not about whether people will get it, 30-70% will get it, it is about how many people will get it in a short period of time and how many will suffer and/or die because we lack ICU capacity all of a sudden and it causes pneumonia and other serious symptoms like sepsis. If this was just another flu it would not be a pandemic – and yes a vaccine is a year away or more.
And no, it is not just about 80-year-olds, although I care about them too. I have a kid with asthma and he’s on the risk list. Some of the people posting or reading here will have diabetes or have undergone cancer treatment or have a loved one in that category. Those that are recently pregnant are also at higher risk. There is a whole slew of common conditions like high blood pressure that make it more likely you’ll end up in ICU with serious symptoms at a time when they are overwhelmed and don’t have the equipment available to treat you.
And yeah, Fairways has been good. I went into save-on in OB just to see yesterday and it was a different story. Now that is an over-the-top response! Apparently Costco has been much worse – why oh why would you do hand to hand combat for stuff in amounts you don’t really need in a crowd like that during a pandemic?
Yeah but don’t you know they make emergency rate cuts every flu season?
Fairways in oak bay was great – busy but keeping up
Went to the local Fairway this morning to pick up some milk. Hardly any shoppers at all. All the shelves were full except toilet paper. However, there were only 2 cashier’s working, so maybe the others called in sick due to a stressful day yesterday…
Nothing says “all’s well” like an emergency Sunday evening Federal Reserve rate cut.
Of 1%.
To zero.
I agree it’s no use to panic, however as totoro has pointed out, the precautions being put in place are for good reason (to protect those at risk). I wonder if you’d feel differently if you were elderly with respiratory problems.
In terms of panic and anxiety, I gotta say a trip yesterday to Save On left me a little rattled. It’s one thing to read about it online, it’s another to see It in person – 100s of shoppers at a normally quiet time, empty shelves, overworked staff. It’s all gonna work out fine (for most people) but still a sight and a feeling that will stick with me.
That tells the tale, if the data is to be believed (oh my god, this isn’t just the flu, it’s different (quotes 6 different studies why this is the case), what if it mutates, no vaccine, crisis-crisis-everywhere, it’s a pandemic etc).
It’s all variation of the same family of corona viruses, and probably everyone reading this has been been infected with a corona virus more than once in their life.
Looking almost anywhere online, you’d think the world was coming to an end. Funny thing is, in some respects that’s not far from the truth – but that has nothing to do with the virus; it’s people’s over-the-top reaction to it. The virus will spread regardless, then it will go away either by vaccine or natural exhaustion, and then some years from now we can act terrorized over the next variant – because there will be one. I detest the media’s central role in spreading this panic crap.
Beyond the normal precautions, fear and anxiety is just pointless. Get out there and go for a walk in the sunshine. Smile and say hello to passers-by and enjoy this beautiful day. Life goes on.
PS if you’re reading this hope you’re enjoying your day too, Barrister.
Absolutely. Prices dropped 10% in 8 months during the great financial crisis. Could be similar if number of buyers drops below number of “must sellers” this time.
Private lending is going to be a wildcard. CMHC is making deals with lenders to defer mortgage payments for up to 6 months for those that need it.
No state support for private lenders so both lenders and borrowers are at risk
“Maybe you would, but that’s not how it works for everyone. Lose your job, lose your business, someone dies etc. and people have to sell.”
Exactly. Maybe this this blows over in a few months, but there will be a lingering impact. Businesses are going to close. People will lose jobs.
If I was an investor, I’d consider putting my money elsewhere. Victoria real estate hasn’t given an inch yet, but the stock market sure has.
And now that panic buying has shifted from houses to toilet paper and canned chili, I would wait this out if I was looking to buy a place to live.
Anyway, just my 2 cents. Hopefully it’s not that bad, but I have a feeling it’s gonna be awhile before we get back to normal.
Maybe you would, but that’s not how it works for everyone. Lose your job, lose your business, someone dies etc. and people have to sell.
Hopefully a vaccine will be ready, but as you know the experts like CDC Dr. Fauci are saying 12-18 months. It would of course be great if one is available sooner than that, first for healthcare workers and the elderly.
Lots of pent up demand, plus if prices start to fall and I was trying to sell I’d just pull back and relist later. If I was an investor I’d be looking to buy with even a small lessening of demand/price drop. This is not a forever event. It is unknown how long, but not forever. There will be a vaccine at the very least.
Yes, and with “cratering” sales, comes falling prices. Which is why I’ve been saying since Feb. 22 …
“Why would anyone buy a home now, close to peak prices? Seems to be no discount offered for this black-swan uncertainty.” https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/02/18/whats-really-going-on-in-the-victoria-economy/#comment-66213
Risk/Reward favours waiting, unless prices fall or the virus goes away.
Might work out if your guests are local and/or long-term.
There is going to be a short-term surge in demand for quarantine accommodation as Canadians return from abroad. Otherwise the whole family needs to quarantine. I have several friends with adult children returning from Europe who are looking at options right now.
Those over 60 and those from out of country are already cancelling trips.
If the government is telling Canadians to get home while they still can how do you think overseas visitors are going to get here and, once here, have a two-week quarantine with the same issues on the way back? Much of the air travel in Europe has already ceased. Some airlines have suspended all flights.
As for the summer, I don’t know. Depends on how long this lasts.
That was always the intent of the stress test. It was never intended to be some fixed bar that stays the same regardless of rates.
A distinction without a difference. Insurance against higher rates protects the financial system by giving borrowers a buffer. The OSFI have also cranked up buffers on the lending side, it’s all consistent https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/b20_dft.aspx
Of course the unavoidable impact is a push lower on prices, and that was absolutely welcomed by regulators that feared high prices were an economic risk. The two go hand in hand and can’t be separate, but the goal of the stress test was not lower prices, it was lower risk.
It’s not in perpetuity, that’s the problem. No matter how bad this crisis gets, the impact on real estate will be temporary. Full article coming in the Capital likely tomorrow morning, but this is fundamentally a demand shock. Maybe months, maybe even a year, or maybe it’s a double dip if this thing comes back, but during the lockdown sales will likely crater until the worst has passed. Then sales will bounce back because credit just got a lot cheaper. And credit got a hell of a lot cheaper for existing owners than for those that don’t own yet.
In Hong Kong the government gave everyone cash. Just straight handouts as a bailout. Imagine the outrage if they gave only home owners thousands and renters nothing. That is what is happening right now. The wealthier and more leveraged you are, the bigger your benefit.
I 100% understand the desire not to goose the property market. Sound policy. So how about we don’t cut rates for existing mortgages either, and we give everyone cash instead? That’s fair, and will have a disproportionate positive effect on the poor where the amount will help them more.
From the Lancet Journal:
“Italy has had 12 462 confirmed cases according to the Istituto Superiore di Sanità as of March 11, and 827 deaths. Only China has recorded more deaths due to this COVID-19 outbreak. The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers. It is therefore true that these patients had underlying health conditions, but it is also worth noting that they had acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia, needed respiratory support, and would not have died otherwise. Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext
I believe my statement was that home equity is the biggest source of move-up buying capital and that is also something family uses to help FTBs. It supports a lot of our market demand. The math supports this imo. Very difficult to save enough to buy a median home just from income.
Times are not easy for first-time buyers. The stress test would have stopped me from buying for several more years. I’m with Leo S on this one – give FTBs the same break here as those with equity are getting.
Already I suspect many FTBs won’t have the same level of parental help until the stock markets recover. If it does get bad here, our economy will experience some lasting impacts. Some businesses will close or take a long time to recover. People who lose their jobs, or have reduced hours, and don’t own a house will have to use some of their down payment savings or not be able to save the same way and some FTBs will be delayed from entering the market.
That has always happened, with or without the stress test. Somebody is going to have extra buying power and they are going to outbid the rest. Make it easier to borrow money and the same people will win the bidding war anyway – the only difference being at higher prices and with higher debt.
If the stress test is out of alignment with reality, first time buyers with well off parents (or other family members) will still drive the prices up. They will be able to afford the higher prives with lower rates, and find a way around this artificial barrier by getting a well off family member to get on the title (or find some other method).
Is there? You’re saying that the stress test should be dynamic, relative to the movement of rates. Not doing that now creates an air of arbitrariness (hence unfairness), as first time buyers on the edge can’t take advantage of lowering rates like everyone else in the market, and everyone else who entered the market before the stress test was introduced. I say, it’s not about that, even though the issue you identify is indeed a reality at present.
Leo, is that you typing? 🙂 The stress test was never designed for that purpose – you’ve pointed this out to others countless times. It was designed to protect the integrity of the Canadian financial system in which incidentally, over-leveraging in residential real estate is identified as among the most potent of threats to that integrity. Protecting highly leveraged buyers from rate hikes was an emergent implication of this fiscal policy given the high consumer debt levels, but it was not the policy objective directly. It still isn’t.
Evan was pretty clear that the escalation in home prices needed to stop due to the effects it was having on consumer debt. That dynamic hasn’t changed, in fact, even with this differential treatment you’re railing against, mortgage credit growth is rising at almost peak levels once again. Reducing the barriers even further enabling even more credit growth IMO, regardless of the “fairness” implications, is absolutely foolish and runs directly counter to the mandate underpinning B-20’s implementation.
That’s almost Totoro’s, “markets can run on nothing but equity” argument. I know you know that that doesn’t make a market for long, and what happens when the FTB can’t get in. You can’t just have legacy market participants trading back and forth to each other in perpetuity.
Many people were absolutely convinced that the billions/trillions of QE in response to the GFC would be massively inflationary. I can’t tell you how many times I heard the term “fiat money” thrown around by those hoarding gold. Didn’t happen*
They’re just excited they won’t have to pay for the schools 😉
I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding. I’m not saying lower it, I’m saying don’t ramp it up for no reason. It was at ~2% for 12-18 months. Then rates started dropping but the benchmark stayed the same, and now rates cratered but benchmark will barely budge. It was 2%, now it’s 3%, and I’d say bring it back to 2%.
There was a case to be made a couple years back that rates might rise 2% at renewal for people, so it made sense as a spread for the stress test. However it was clear even before the stress test that rates weren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Still, the 2% threshold makes sense just as a safety net for the future. I doubt you’ll find any economists that say rates are realistically going to be +3% in 5 years. That means the entire rationale for the stress test goes out the window. It’s not insurance against rate increases any more. It’s simply a political lever that can be pulled at will to raise or lower housing demand. Right now you like the direction (“pull up the drawbridge!”), but next time an election rolls around perhaps the government decides to lower the bar to boost the economy and their election chances. Dangerous precedent, and I believe will result in more wealth transfer to the wealthiest.
I get the argument that a higher bar will keep prices lower, and then those on the margin might be able to buy with less leverage. But I’m not sure that it plays out that way in reality. If there’s a big dip in prices now, we may just see more vultching from existing owners that refinance their homes to take out some dirt cheap money and outcompete those marginal buyers for the properties that they know will rebound in value when the virus passes.
KS12:
booked up all the way to early Oct. no sign of cancellation yet.
Skip the Dishes is going to make out like bandits …
Introvert, this is a minor issue at this point. It is hard to know exactly what will happen next, but it is going to involve most people staying home. Business are going to be closed, except for pharmacies, grocery and gas stations.
When I look at our numbers and what is happening elsewhere I don’t think we are at a point where we can avoid this without risking an unmanageable spike in our numbers. I don’t even know if we can avoid this because no-one does.
Time to reach out to your vulnerable loved ones and make sure they know what social distancing means. My parents are in their seventies. I asked them to please stay home. I will send them the medications they need. No, they can’t go to church or volunteer at the thrift store. It was something they hadn’t quite grasped yet.
This is my just my opinion, and I’m jumping the gun, but what do you lose if I’m wrong vs. if I’m right?
Any thoughts about the rental market now that air bnbing will probably be a dud this summer?
I continue to disagree with you. No matter which way you present your argument, you cannot escape some basic realities of its implementation.
So let’s do that, and lower the stress test threshold. What happens?
You must remember that buyers are the market – there is no other markets. House prices are a function of what banks are willing to lend, and the more the debt becomes affordable, the more debt a given level of income can carry. In this simplistic example, banks will therefore loan more, growing debt levels and creating even greater economic imbalances.
That imbalance is critical.
The more debt that is enabled through low interest rates, the more sensitive the entire economy is to any movement in those rates. Furthermore, high debt levels reduces an economy’s ability to respond to exogenous shocks, has long term, deleterious implications on consumer behaviour, and promotes the propagation of financially unhealthy enterprise.
I don’t think there’s an argument that can reasonably be made that at current valuations, consumers should be enabled to take on more debt. The solution to high home prices is lower home prices, and home prices become lower when buyers cannot afford high prices. This is the essence of a market, and it means there are always winners and losers at any given stage of the cycle.
I also question how you’re directing your entire argument of “unfairness”. We have to think about how we got into this mess in the first place. The reason things are “unfair” right now is because of monetary policy that has grossly distorted global markets and real estate markets that are affected by that capital. In a sense, you’re almost arguing for them to do more of it, or at least allow even greater numbers of people to join this moribund party.
Wait until all this meddling and $1300 a square foot skybox joke falls apart – because eventually it will. Will it be fair that recent buyers like me get smoked on a deflating asset price? If that happens, should I demand that the consequences of my actions be relieved from my burden, to make it fair for me – because the person next to me who refused to participate in the party now has the means to come in and pick my bones? No it doesn’t. That’s how a market works, and may I conclude by reminding you that life was never promised to be fair.
Interesting. Alberta’s provincial health officer says that, for now, they’re not closing the schools, but if they do, they’ll probably stay closed till September.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/province-says-schools-wouldnt-reopen-until-at-least-september-if-closed/
In the end, after COVID-19 has subsided, probably in several months, I have one question:
Will the COVID-19 affect the world economies in an inflationary way or will it cause deflationary pressure? It certainly won’t have a neutral effect.
I’ve pondered this question but my mind just goes in circles and loops with occasional backflips.
That’s not really the issue though. I support the stress test.
But last year the spread between contract and the benchmark rates was more like 2%. Now it’s close to 3%.
So the question is what is an appropriate level for the stress test? I think a simple contract + 2% which is what the tweaks were going to do is perfectly sensible. Why shouldn’t those at the margin also benefit from lowered rates? The stress test at +2% adequately protects from interest rate risks
Canada restaurant traffic down 40% YOY (that’s comparing March 13/2020 with March 13/2019. (USA down 36%). Fall off is dramatic, on Mar 8 it was flat YOY.
Vancouver down 36% YOY on March 13/2020. It was +5% in Feb.
Toronto down 49%.
Seattle down 63%. It was +7% on Feb 28. NYC, Boston, LA all down -50%.
All data is real-time, from opentable. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRbPuAyJy74UmbF6kLXFGXDk2eX3N6zvRLzxPamG8FAA3E-SVqMOMSIht-eYEF_4qrNGOJuPbDjTsPD/pubhtml#
IF we scrap or weaken the stress test it will give first time homebuyers more buying (i.e. borrowing) power. One assumes a new equilibrium would be reached with higher home prices and more heavily indebted buyers on average. At the new price level a subset of buyers would be sidelined by prices instead of by the stress test.
Where I am living:
all schools closed till April 30;
all ski resorts, sports facilities, gyms, libraries, museums, tourist attractions, bars and clubs closed till April 30th;
no events of more than 50 people, all larger planned events cancelled;
team sport training prohibited;
restaurants open (for now) if less than 50 people inclusive of staff
public transport still functional
Other areas of Switzerland have even more stringent requirements (restaurants and all stores other than food stores and pharmacies closed).
Hope it doesn’t come to that in BC
The key point is that you could qualify at 5.19%. Many people simply can’t.
And before the current drop in rates I supported the stress test 100%. 2% benchmark is excellent policy and insurance against the potential of rising rates.
But this dropping rates by 1% in emergency sessions, but only passing on the benefits to the already wealthy is rubbing me the wrong way.
So I benefit from the rate drop because I bought 7 years ago. Not to pick on you Marko but you are saving thousands with your several condos on variable rates. But the first time home buyer who’s sidelined by the stress test is still sidelined.
I agree. We would not have been able to get into the market in 2010 if this was in place. I was still early in my career and not making all that much. My wife was recently graduated and had not worked long enough for her income to qualify. We would have had to wait longer to get into the market
Maybe people think that we didn’t deserve to own yet and so should have waited, but I am glad there was no stress test at the time.
I suppose there’s no truly right or wrong answer, but I don’t really agree with you.
I’m glad we had to qualify at 5.19%, and it gives me a bit more solace that nearly 5 years from now, I should (hopefully) be just fine.
Sure, the problem you’re referring to is real, and there’s an element that can be argued to be “unfair”. But what you’re arguing in essence is, it’s unfair buyers today cannot indebt themselves to a degree that would support valuations that are already a social and economic problem.
The prices are too high relative to incomes, and the rates are too low. I’d rather have people needing to qualify at rates that are nominal and constrain buyers, then merely allow people to borrow more, pushing up prices even more – where you just end up making the same argument you just made, but at even higher debt levels and associated precariousness. It’s not sustainable, and Evan apparently knows that.
Arguing that rates can’t go up to 5% in 5 years or so is probably true, but with so much hanging in the balance and nothing in financial markets making logical sense anymore, I believe the ends of that policy move justify the means.
If were up to me, the qualifying rate would be even higher. Good thing I guess, that it’s not up me. 🙂
They ARE the market. Houses will have to sell for what buyers can qualify for. Lowering qualifications in the face of lower interest rates will just divert capital into gains for house sellers. Just what Siddell was talking about.
Too be honest I’m not sure how I feel about it. Of course overheating real estate market is bad, and I fully understand the risk of over leveraging, but it feels pretty unfair.
Everyone that has a house gets to have a party with stupid low interest rates. Everyone that wants a house is forced to qualify at a 5.19% (soon 5.04%) rate when contract rates are nearing 2% which prices them out of the market and means they can’t take advantage. That spread is completely insane. There is no way it is justified by any reasonable expectation that interest rates could go up to 5% at renewal.
So what is the stress test now if not protection against rising rates? It’s an arbitrary moat that separates those that are in from those that are out. Policy that benefits the already wealthy. Again, I get the intent behind it and I think a simple contract + 2% system is good, but 3% spreads are not really defensible.
A logical move for once.
From the man himself
Very interesting. The OSFI are suspending the changes to the mortgage stress test. With lowered rates it would have drastically reduced the stress test benchmark rate. No longer, it will remain where it is at 5.19%.
Seems like they are trying to rescue the economy while not stimulating the housing market so much
I really can’t see that happening this summer. People will still be staying home most likely. I don’t know what the trajectory in NA will be, but Wuhan reported its first case on November 17 and they are still reporting cases as of today, even though the worst has passed. Many shops are still closed and people were kept home by government order for the past seven weeks.
Matthew, I’m not arguing per se with your TCO calculations. I don’t know enough about it.
But none of that really applies. The capital costs have already been spent. Right now the impact of them not coming here is all the lost economic activity. Is it $20M or $70M I don’t know but it’s big. Add that to the cancelled flights and all the other drops in traffic.
Also your plan is sort of self defeating. Either Victoria is empty and nice which means there are few tourists or the marketing campaign works, lots of people come and it’s no longer true.
I don’t know what the impact will be because it depends entirely on how long this thing lasts. Couple weeks no issue. Couple months maybe ok. All summer we’re definitely gonna see a spike in unemployment. Good thing we are starting from a strong base
@Leo “GVHA CEO Ian Robertson said that this year’s cruise ship season was estimated to bring 65 to 70-million dollars to the local economy.”
Don’t get me wrong Leo, personally, I love cruise ships. I wish they could come this spring like they have been for years. They are majestic and charming, and are a part of what makes Victoria so special. Many times I’ve gone down to Ogden Point to look at them at night. But they’ve been banned until July 2020. This is the reality. So Victoria has to figure out another way of enticing tourists. We can start by developing a reputation for being the cleanest tourist town in North America. The City should spend money right away cleaning up the streets and spraying the tourist areas with disinfectant and letting everybody across Canada know that they are taking the business of cleanliness very seriously. Half the tables should be removed from every restaurant to allow for “social distancing”. Outdoor patios should space the coffee tables far apart. Advertising campaigns should ask: “What’s best thing about Victoria? Answer: Just being here”. There is so much room, so many big beautiful parks to visit. So many things to do. It’s not cramped New York City where thousands and thousands of people are all jammed together on a maze of busy streets. This is a small town, but at the same time, there’s a lot of personal room for people expand out. There’s the beach at Cadboro Bay, the walking trails at Thetis Lake, Beacon Hill Park, Mount Douglas, the Galloping Goose Trail, the Sooke Potholes. I mean, there’s all kinds of quiet out-of-the-way places tourists can go to enjoy the West Coast of Canada. Remember that many, many Canadians don’t get a chance to see the ocean very often, and this is a BIG thing for a lot of people. And so Victoria should advertise out loud (starting in April or May once the initial shock wears off) , so tourists all over Canada can see Victoria is a good place to come this summer.
Finally, this is a website about the Victoria Real Estate Market. So the main question is: what does the loss of the cruise ships for a few months actually mean to Victoria RE? I respectfully suggest, not much. It’s not good, I agree. But the main thing is for people to calm down and not panic. And the more we talk about the positive things that our city can do to attract tourists, the better.
Good set of data here for those interested: https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/fghd23/psa_regarding_covid19_a_warning/
You’re likely right, but both can be happening. Some people getting cold feet, most people still gung ho
I am well aware but I talked to 5 busy realtors today and not seeing it, yet. Decent percentage of places still going in multiples/over asking which wouldn’t be consistent with people bailing on conditons.
I agree it’s too early to call that evidence, but they definitely wouldn’t be bailing on offers due to COVID as the stated reason. That’s not a legitimate reason to pull out of an offer. They would not lift conditions because of financing or inspection, because that’s their only option for most.
Impossible to tell anything from that graph. Offers going unconditional yesterday were made end of February on average and I haven’t heard of people bailing on conditional offers specifically due to the COVID19 so I don’t think that would have caused the dip. I think a telling week will be March 23th-March 27th as that is when offers being made today would be going unconditional.
That being said showings are still busy and still dealing with lots of offers. Not trying to pump the market just noting what I am personally seeing on the ground.
This could go in so many different directions it’s crazy. I honestly don’t know what I was do as a buyer right now. There is a huge amount of uncertainty around the virus but at the same time money is dirt cheap and if **** hits the fan somehow I think the government will yet again help homeowners out like delaying mortgage payments or similar. One thing is pretty certain, unless a communist regime or total apocalypse occurs a title to a property is safe bet.
There is also a low probability scenario that the virus is somewhat contained and the drop in interest rates and stress text relaxation causes the market to go up 5 to 10%.
Downsize risk in an outbreak probably impossible to predict but looking forward to LeoS article.
Maybe starting to see some impact on market… A bit too early to tell
Congrats on the certainty Cadborosaurus.
UVic moving to online starting Monday.
Congrats on finding a place Cadborosaurus, it must have been very stressful.
“ GVHA CEO Ian Robertson said that this year’s cruise ship season was estimated to bring 65 to 70-million dollars to the local economy.”
Leo @ “I doubt that suddenly cruise ships will start docking again. Domestic tourists is hard to tell”.
I found this article on the Victoria Cruise Ship industry. It’s a bit dated (2011) but it points out the industry is not all wine and roses for Victoria:
https://www.jbna.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/1103-CostBenefit-Full.pdf
A few highlights:
Victoria is a “Port-of-Call” meaning the cruise ships show up for a very short period of time here. They usually arrive at about 6 pm and they have to disembark by midnight or pay an extra day’s moorage. So all these tourists have a very short time to spend money. Basically they show up at the Causeway and buy a coffee and a scone, pick up some trinkets on Gov’t Street, throw a musician an American $1 dollar bill, buy a burger somewhere, and then head back to the ship at 11 pm. They are not taking out hotel rooms or renting Garden Suites. Very few of them have the time to get to Butchart Gardens for example, And they are certainly not exploring Vancouver Island and spending real money in any way. Obviously, it is not good for Victoria to lose this business (and I heard the Gov’t just banned all cruise ship entries until July 2020), but I don’t think it is gonna make or break the Victoria tourist season.
The report says Canadian and B.C. taxpayers are providing large capital subsidies to build infrastructure in support of a foreign industry that generates billions of dollars in profits for its owners, and imposes substantial social and environmental costs on the local community. So again it’s not all a “bowl of cherries” for Victoria.
Most Victoria tourists are Canadian citizens coming from interior BC, Alberta, Sask, Ontario and Quebec. They’ve just been told to not leave our country. Yes, some people will get laid off their jobs and face hardship, but many Canadians will still be able to take a vacation this summer. Maybe a good part of them will come and enjoy Beautiful British Columbia this summer. Maybe they will practice “social distancing” by renting a nice RV where the family can be alone and away from others, and they come to the island as tourists in this way. Victoria Tourism should think of ways to accommodate RV tourists, but maintain safe health practices. For example, free parking at big box stores or in parks. Come and enjoy Victoria in your RV. But stay 6 feet away from other people.
Maybe the hotels and restaurants will have to implement “social distancing” rules. I heard New York City recently stated that if a restaurant holds 200 people, only 50 people can be in there at one time, as this allows for social distancing. None of this is particularly good news, but it could help keep Victoria a place that tourists will wish to visit this summer.
The Victoria Tourist season basically runs from April until September. It has not even started yet. Maybe it will be delayed from June to December this year. Point is: we have time to tackle this problem head on, which is what every citizen should do. Wash your hands frequently, don’t touch surfaces and then pick your nose, stay away from large crowds, maintain a distance of 6 feet from other people, do as much of your job on the computer at home as you can. If you think you are sick, isolate yourself and get tested according to the protocol. The USA has now set up a system where concerned citizens can immediately (in a few days time) get tested at Walmart and other big chain store parking lots all across America. And big medical companies have been working double-overtime to produce Covid 19 Test Kits. Thousands of Kits will be available shortly. We are probably going to do the same thing right away.
So, if people just stop freaking out and live their lives one day at a time, in a sensible manner, paying heed to the new reality of life, I think most of us will be OK. And so will the Victoria real estate market.
What planet are you living on… this isn’t blowing over.
And the other shoe drops at Lions Gate Hospital…
They’re not testing anyone at that swab station who hasn’t travelled lately. We’re as bad as the fucking states. Morons.
Congrats on finding a place.
Hope it works well for you 🙂
It’s a democracy but people have drilled into them the need to make sacrifices for collective security, such as universal military service. Remember who they’re next door to.
We found a rental house. It has been a crazy couple of weeks before this pandemic ramped up… We looked at basically every house we could afford that fit our requirements for buying (so not many) and decided they were all crap. Most places in Langford sub 600k need an expensive city sewer hookup in the near future or have an overburdened septic or both. Or they’re newer cookie cutter SFH on strata, which also was not appealing. We even checked out some new builds, like the Piano in happy valley.. 500k townhouses that back onto the galloping goose, with no bike storage. I don’t get it. 5’9 crawl spaces with narrow stairways to get into. Pass.
Around 2 weeks ago we shifted gears to house hunt for a rental which was also really eye-opening as we haven’t done this in 8 years and this is the first time moving with kids. $2300 seems to be the going “advertised” rate for a 3 bedroom and that’s usually just half a house. I was quite surprised to show up to 2 viewings to find we were not looking at a whole house, or even an upper … But a basement suite for that price. Once we realized the bullshit in the ads and email communication I started to get very picky about what we viewed and also provided feedback to potential landlords when it didn’t suit us and why. We were offered reduced rent at a few places after such feedback which felt kind of nice in this supposedly tight market, but I also think we’re prime tenants vs who else is looking. I don’t know how you score good long term tenants as a landlord… Price it a bit too high then offer a discount to keep a good tenant? Or price it correctly to begin with? Lots of places rolled over between Feb and March that were asking too much.
Things I found surprising:
-ads saying “family friendly” yet lacking any closit in a kids room, lacking a bathtub, or only having street parking (imagine getting 2 young kids to the vehicle if I have to park a block away and in a different spot everyday).
-theres no discount to rent in Langford. We were ready to move out there for a better price and couldn’t find it. Lots of newer suites and houses at premium rent prices… We stayed in town vs. the commute time and gas $.
Overall I’m still pissed we have to move but relieved we found a place and can stop looking. We’re taking a gamble by renting for a while longer when we wanted to buy but I think with the latest shit going on around us it’s going to be the right move. For anyone who didn’t read my last post we’re being renovicted from our current home.
That kid running around Oakland’s with a letter asking to buy your home isn’t us but neat idea. I’d do the same if our pre-approval was within 50k of prices here but it’s still a big gap. My kids are pretty cute though.. wait til the toddler is selling guide cookies, she is going to slay.
Pretty reassuring to watch the live update today from Dr. Henry. It seems they have this well in hand at the moment and they are looking at best practices around the world to ramp up the response. Calm, serious, collected. Very grateful to have this taken seriously and to see the response so far.
IMHO, that interest rate cut is exactly the opposite of what this country needs right now.
But it does demonstrate one thing – don’t think the BOC kowtows to the housing market. It’s either collateral benefit, or collateral damage. But seriously? 0.75%?
Wait ’till this blows over in a month or two, and people think, woo hoo, risk-on…
We do an ABW payment schedule with $500.00/mo prepayment on top of our regular. If rates were to drop, we would probably increase our payments, not lower them. Personal preference I suppose.
Why would you want people to keep the payments the same with lower rates? You can still pay off the same time with lower rates and lower payments.
I plan to have my mortgage paid off in my early sixties, I always go with lowest possible payments and double up on payments and/or lumpsums on when it works out. I am looking forward to the lower payments at renewal. Not planning on shortening the amortization time.
Be curious if the banks mimic the cut or not. Last time we were this low they followed 30 of the 50 bps.
“Any idea what the going variable rate will be after today’s cut? I’m in a 5 yr fixed at 2.89 and I suspect it may be worth paying the penalty.”
Not sure about variable, but I have to renew in a couple months so have been shopping around. Lowest five year fixed I’ve been quoted so far was 2.24%…and that was before the rate cut. Big bank rates are quite a bit higher so far.
Not sure about the source or date of that chart, but it shows no positive test results, and only refers to BC and Alberta.
Yea right….RVS, boats, vacations.
We live in a debt society and unfortunately savers are not rewarded. Incredibly dumb, but you have to play within the system.
I really hope he was (joking). As if he isn’t, he could become one of those asymptomatic virus carriers and bring danger to people around him (family, friends, co-workers …) if he doesn’t go for self-isolation afterwards.
Looks like we’re doing OK on the testing front for our population. Should still ramp up though.
New testing numbers released. 6,326 as of March 13th. That’s 1247/million which isn’t a bad ratio. Good to see rate improving.
Yes. Shifting to the bigger strategy of going for sustainable investing requires more brain cells and time than I have disposable at the moment.
I’m also am continuing to buy stocks.
@Matthew.
Don’t worry it’s not all negative. But it’s almost inevitable that tourist season is dead this year. If it calms down in May I doubt that suddenly cruise ships will start docking again. Domestic tourists is hard to tell. Right now I bet there’s a big drop, but I could see that it might be a bit of a surge later in summer when this has hopefully blown over. Older folks not selling.. Not a big factor I think. My experience is that people go to assisted living because they have to, not because they want to. But yes maybe some will delay until after the outbreak is done.
Any idea what the going variable rate will be after today’s cut? I’m in a 5 yr fixed at 2.89 and I suspect it may be worth paying the penalty.
PS I’m not convinced LeoM is joking!
Leo: “Writing an article on real estate impacts now”.
Don’t forget to write about all the possible good things to say: 1. Covid 19 cases are already reducing in China and South Korea, so that’s good news. 2. Tourist season in Victoria hasn’t even started yet. By late May or June we may have a handle on this. 3. Cruise Ships got cancelled until further notice but, on the other side of the coin, Canadians are being told to not leave our country, so maybe actually more prairie people will vacation in BC this summer. This will help to prop up the economy. 4. The reason why the stock market can crash so suddenly is because panicking people can sell all their stocks in 5 minutes flat. Not so in the real estate market. It takes several months to sell a home, so there’s a kind of built in “anti-panic” button when it comes to real estate. Yes, there might be a slow down in sales, but the interest rate just dropped to .75% so that’s good if you want to get a mortgage. And people still got to live somewhere. 5. Older folks might not want to put their homes up for sale right now, and then move into a seniors residence where the chance of contracting Covid 19 is exponentially higher. It’s far safer for them just to remain in their homes. So, if the inventory does not climb up, prices should remain stable.
sidenote me noticing buyers from vancouver are coming over here…..
Scary passing thought…
What if those anti-vaxxer loons are holding the covid 19 equivalent of their quaint chicken pox parties?
I know this is a housing blog, but the economy is more than just housing. Lower costs for debt and easier access to credit should assist companies that are being affected by coronavirus to ride out this storm.
LeoM,
For your own benefit, please note that this virus may not like other flu virus, it suggested that it might be more like a cold so one could get it multiple times, or it might stay for a while in one’s body even after recovery.
Even if we would get it eventually, for public benefits, we should all try to be very cautious to delay getting it as much as possible, so the bell curve would be the one we, as a society, could handle.
Thank you.
So the answer to save our economy is to cut interest rates so Canadians can add more debt. Wow what could possible go wrong.
Hopefully people renewing keep payments the same.
Are you just pouring more into VGRO, or do you have a different approach?
Drastically reduced mortgage prepayments. Redirecting money to markets. I still want to pay off the mortgage fast (even though it’s economically sub-optimal) but at these interest rates and stocks on sale it makes absolutely no sense.
thanks.
There are people out there that still think this is going to go away in the US because Trump said so.
Sweet! I always wanted to grow gills.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
As I’ve said before…..can’t go wrong committing to a lifetime of variable mortgages.
Holy crap. Another 0.5% cut.
Short term crash in sales during outbreak, long term massive demand stimulus.
Writing an article on real estate impacts now
Considering that the first, known case of community transmission in Seattle was only discovered by accident in late January, you’re probably correct. This patient was found when an infectious disease specialist broke the rules and used their annual flu monitoring data in a way that is considered unethical, but seemed the most prudent action.
We have an annual flu monitoring program here as well; it seems unlikely that early cases of Covid19 weren’t incidentally detected, but no official declaration was made for the same privacy and ethics concerns.
Especially after the Therapeutics Initiative fiasco under the Liberals. I think that episode put the fear of [insert supreme deity] into researchers.
another interest rate cut
Same.
Pretty safe to say he is joking. I can’t imagine there is anyone out there that is actually that stupid to try that strategy.
I would not recommend getting infected on purpose. You are assuming that you will be in the same shape as when you were healthy, a lot of CT scans of young healthy people had permanent lung scaring an damage to heart and kidneys.
The other assumption you are making is that it would remain with us, it may not and just fade away again
The last assumption is thinking that one becomes immune to the mutations of the codvid19, there is already 2 mutations, and people who were infected for variant got infected for the other and then subsequently died at a higher rate (preprint papers coming out of China).
So definitely a NO to getting purposefully infected. Too many unknowns.
As an example, I just can’t stop thinking about all those families at my kids’ school who returned from their international vacation about a week ago. They did not self-quarantine (it wasn’t recommended at the time); they’ve touched many door handles at the school (and everywhere); they’ve gone shopping numerous times; they’ve gone to work all week; and there’s been no social distancing when congregating and chatting with other parents on the playground after school (or with anyone, for that matter)…
If just one or two of these folks brought COVID-19 home, and sniffles were the only symptoms that presented, then they’ve probably unwittingly transmitted it to many others for whom sniffles might be the only symptom, and on it goes until it reaches an older and/or immunocompromised person.
In short, I think the virus may be circulating far more widely in Victoria (and lots of other cities in Canada) than we realize.
Basically if you have COPD things aren’t looking good.
Perhaps a distinction between osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis is more descriptive. Anyone with an auto-immune disorder – ie. rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis – may be taking immune system suppressing medications, and can’t mount an adequate response to infection. People being treated for cancers may also be immunocompromised.
Patients requiring mechanical ventilation , for any reason, are also susceptible due to mechanical injury to lung tissue. If your lungs are full of pus or some other gunk, higher vent pressures may be necessary to force oxygen into your tissues but may also damage the same delicate tissues. Basically, a damned if you , damned if you don’t sort of scenario.
I’m off now to the RJH Emergency Ward waiting room to hangout for a few hours in an attempt to catch a COVID-19 infected. I’d rather get it sooner than later. Anyone want to join me?
I would say yes as ARDS (what kills you with COVID19) is directly related to the lungs. If you, I don’t know, had chronic arthritis not sure that that would be that meaningful.
ARDS is not a chronic disease. I remember a doctor at VIHA had ARDS about 10 years ago, barely survived and was back to work in 4 weeks after discharge. Probably takes a year or so to get your full lung function back but unless you suffer complications during treatment like a stroke or something you can return to normal life.
That being said mortality is 47% with ARDS.
I get that, but asthma isn’t exactly something people jump to when people say underlying medical conditions. I have allergy induced asthma, I’ve had maybe 20 asthmatic episodes in my life. Does that mean I have an underlying medical condition?
Also, since you know more about it, what are people’s odds of living say 3 years with ARDS?
Assuming it is accurate, data from China shows that this is the case. It seems likely that it will come back to China, but for now it seems they are ramping up their economy again after brief extreme disruption instead of having it drag on for months.
Problem is to pull off a quarantine like China did, you need to do it by force and at the end of a gun for those who don’t want to comply. Not really an option in a freer country, for better or worse.
Another way to contain or at least slow it radically is seemingly with extremely rapid testing and then quarantines for anyone that tests positive like South Korea is doing. I don’t understand the odd approach we have here of rationing testing to only symptomatic people that have had contact with those travelling from high risk countries. They should be pulling out all the stops to ramp testing up by an order of magnitude and then offer it to anyone with any flu symptoms no questions asked.
Just look how well they did despite a large outbreak. And I don’t think they had to literally imprison people to do it. This is the model of a good response in a democratic country.
We are on house hunt victoria…..if you want to talk you have one ventilator left and a 50 yr old and 70 yr old that showed up to emerg first and they both need intubation/ventilation maybe best left for reddit/facebook?
Obviously this is a huge scary disaster and many people will lose loved ones. I just don’t think that we are on the brink of complete collapse. Most people well get cold symptoms and carry on with life after going to the store to buy pet food for their dog.
Not what I was trying to get at. Point is if you have an underlying medical conditions you need to take extra precautions and if you don’t have any underlying medical conditions the odds of this killing you is likely relatively low.
The worst case scenario is that vulnerable people will die avoidable deaths imo. Not really about working age people in my mind?
Quick numbers. Based on what I see on wikipedia, China has had just under 2000 cases in the last 15 days (they only had 20 new cases yesterday!), but they still have 13,500 people who have yet to recover. Some of these cases seem like they take a long time to get over.
edit: that number does not include people who have died. 13,500 people who are still alive, and haven’t recovered.
I mean… they basically had it coming right?
Does it say how many of them have life altering medical issues that aren’t death that result from the virus?
Looks like of the 12,000 document cases under 40 yrs of age 26 people have died, but it does not breakdown if those 26 has underlying medical conditions like asthma, immunosuppressed, etc.
As I said the other day worse case scenario here is 1 in 1000 working age people die (when you factor in not everyone will be infected, etc., etc) which is horrible; however, will not lead to a complete collapse of economy/society.
If society was organized, which it isn’t, wouldn’t the virus be killed or at least contained if everyone in the world was essentially quarantined for two weeks? Give people 1 week to stock up on rations and than put the world on pause for 14 days minus absolute essential services.
I think my most serious concern right now is flattening the curve of infection.
We need to take transmission seriously.
Individuals need to know that this is highly transmissible, you shed the virus for a long period once infected (20 days), and it a potentially fatal illness for a significant percentage of the elderly and those with underlying conditions – and for a small percentage of adults who have no known underlying conditions.
The most common underlying conditions in those who were not elderly but had serious symptoms and needed hospitalization were diabetes and high blood pressure.
I think the time is nigh for people with “mild, flu-like symptoms” to just assume the worst and self-quarantine. We dont need the bragging rights of a positive test if we are suffering mild symptoms, and the public health system doesn’t need the extra volume of tests. We will never know the exact numbers of infections anyway, so why bog down the system?
As already discussed here, the most pressing concern is keeping the seriously ill or injured from any cause alive on an inadequate number of ventilators.
Day by day it’s becoming more apparent that most healthy people have few if any symptoms of the virus infection. Smokers are at most risk among otherwise healthy people.
https://nationalpost.com/news/these-canadians-who-caught-novel-coronavirus-say-they-barely-knew-they-were-infected
This is the time of year that tens of thousands of snow birds will be flying back to Canada from all over the world. Brace yourself for a mass outbreak.
Also after patting themselves on the back for testing more people than the US a few days ago, there has been a distinct lack of updates on rate of testing done. Somehow it feels like the testing rate is lagging behind. And why do they say “the risk of the virus spreading remains low”? The risk of the virus spreading is 100%. The health risk to any given person is low, for sure.
http://www.bccdc.ca/about/news-stories/stories/2020/information-on-novel-coronavirus
The site’s RSS feed should be fixed in case anyone uses that: https://househuntvictoria.ca/feed/
I’m pretty sure some of us in Victoria already have it and don’t realize.
The powerful and rich play by different rules.
I see that NBA players got tested and had results really fast, too:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-did-the-nba-push-through-58-coronavirus-tests-for-the-utah-jazz-when-almost-no-one-else-can-get-them?ref=scroll
We were planning on traveling with the whole family to the Netherlands for 2 weeks in April. $5000 worth of plane tickets, at least KLM is allowing free changes up to May 31st, however not sure if that is pushing it back far enough. I can also turn it into a credit that needs to be used within 12 months, so that will probably be what we go for. However, waiting to see what the situation is closer to the actual date and see if insurance kicks in to get a full refund.
As for summer killing this thing off. Some of you thought Iran wasn’t good enough, but it seems to be spreading just fine in Australia currently, who are at the height of their summer.
If you lock yourself in the vehicle, what are they able to do?
The US hotel I cancelled waived change fees, the US ferry waived cancellation fee, and the flight waived cancellation fees too. So far I’ve found them to be accomodating, but that may be just because we’re dealing with only small amounts, not thousands in flights.
…and wow has the CAD ever cratered. Curious to see how far it goes.
SMU shutting down a week early for spring break.
Trying to cancel all my travel plans, but have heard that until the feds declare level 3, insurance will not kick in (BC doesn’t count).
Why is it that South Korea can get their results back in 5-6 hours and it takes days here?
Can’t say I haven’t had the exact same thoughts.
I believe that turned out to be very likely a bad test (false negative, in that they were discharged but weren’t actually cured yet). Some googling leads me to believe it’s somewhat inconclusive at this point.
Yeah, they need to change the rules during a pandemic.
Hmm.. Still planning to go up island next week, but then basically just visiting family so can’t see any additional risk there.
Pulling the plug on my flight to the interior the week after, will drive instead. I’m not leaving the car on the ferry though.
I called BC ferries to see if they are relaxing the rules on that but they say they are bound to Transport Canada rules.
So I emailed transport canada and they said:
The safety and security of the travelling public and the transportation system are Transport Canada’s top priorities. Passengers on open, upper vehicle decks can remain in their vehicles if they choose to.
The department is working in close collaboration with the Government of Canada lead—the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) — and other federal partners in regards to the COVID-19 situation.
We understand the concerns expressed by the public. It is due to safety reasons, and recommendations by the Transportation Safety Board following a fire incident involving a ferry in Newfoundland and Labrador, that passengers are not allowed to remain in their vehicles on closed vehicle decks.
For more information about closed vehicle decks on BC Ferries, please consult: https://www.bcferries.com/about/projects/lower-closed-vehicle-deck-access-faq.html
Anyone else scratching their heads?
“the CoVid test is 3-5 days”. BUT “Sophie Trudeau tested positive for covid19.”
She only had the test yesterday according to the news a few hours ago but if it takes 3 days, how do they know with certainty?
You can catch it more than once.
Honestly?!?!?!?!
“The BCCDC Coronavirus Hotline (1-833-707-2792) is available Monday through Friday, 8:30am to 4:30pm.”
Is this really an emergency? The emergency hotline is only available during government office hours?
If this was a real emergency it would be available 24/7.
Maybe I’m crazy but I’m going out tomorrow to try catching the COVID-19 virus for a few reasons:
written in jest… but half serious…
https://globalnews.ca/news/6668957/bc-coronavirus-update-march-12/?utm_source=site_banner_persistant
British Columbia’s top doctor has urged residents to avoid all non-essential international travel, including to the United States, amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.
“I think this is really important. It is clear at this time that the evolving situation both in the United States and globally is a risk for all of us, and we are strongly advising people not to travel,” said Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry at a news conference on Thursday in Victoria.
Henry said the decision came in part after consultation with the government in Quebec, where some people returning home from spring break tested positive for COVID-19.
Anyone who travels outside Canada will need to stay away from school or work for 14 days upon return, Health Minister Adrian Dix told the news conference, adding that people in the Lower Mainland should no longer be hopping the border for a quart of milk.
That’s great. Testing is one of the best tools we have. What’s really needed is a fast test results though – influenza test is 45 minutes and the CoVid test is 3-5 days. Biotech firms have a lot of tests in development, and when a reliable/cheap/fast one comes along, it could turn this thing around. Like this Korean company Seegene that can make 1 million tests a week at a cost of $20 per test. Amazing company, developed the test in 3 weeks with a handful of employees, and then are mass producing it now for Korea, Italy and other countries https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-testing-intl-hnk/index.html USA is ramping up for millions per week too.
In the meantime, we need to buy as much time as possible. Move to online for everything like school, university, and elderly should avoid avoid restaurants and concerts etc.
Sophie Trudeau tested positive for covid19.
That’s great. Testing is one of the best tools we have. What’s really needed is a fast test results though – influenza test is 45 minutes and the CoVid test is 3-5 days. Biotech firms have a lot of tests in development, and when a reliable/cheap/fast one comes along, it could turn this thing around.
In the meantime, we need to buy as much time as possible. Move to online for everything like school, university, and elderly should avoid avoid restaurants and concerts etc.
I have to say I’m feeling a little stressed this evening and worried for my neighbors. Come on Victoria, let’s beat Wuhan’s numbers 🙂 So follow Introvert’s lead, no unnecessary social contact. (and yes, I had not imagined me saying those words ever before)
Good ol’ introvert – right of course :). More numbers! The BCCDC Coronavirus Hotline (1-833-707-2792) is available Monday through Friday, 8:30am to 4:30pm.
Cadborosaurus?
Dr. Bonnie Henry 🙂
For those who wish to model portfolio performance, based on historic data –
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
And then run your portfolio performance through this site to determine outcomes of various spending levels –
https://www.firecalc.com/
It’s like anyone investing in the stock market two weeks ago. All time high, Coronavirus can’t do shit.
Please don’t go to a clinic or emerg for testing. Island Health has set up swab stations. Call ahead to 250-388-2200 to book an appointment.
FYI, if you go to a clinic or emerge and you want to be tested for COVID, this should be the first thing out of your mouth to the first staff person you see. If someone is suspected of having it, hospital staff are supposed to use droplet precautions (full suit and a mask), but there’s a bit of a stupid loophole. Doctors are the only ones that can state if a patient should have droplet precautions. By the time that precaution is in place, they may have already been seen to by admins, nurses and lab tech assistants. Obviously hospital staff are trained with how to deal with this stuff but it’s a bit unnerving when a phlebotomist takes someone’s blood, only to see the droplet precaution go up a few mins later.
For those of you with questions about travel and spring break, the province’s health officer, Dr. Bonnie Harvey, just asked all British Columbians to avoid non-essential travel outside of Canada, including the US. If you can cancel or rebook I would. Also, https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2020/03/victoria-councillor-issues-motion-to-suspend-cruise-ship-landings-at-ogden-point-amid-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0aI828RbCk55sNuNlEQrv3N_7TH5iyBSKZBQZ4g0GLOew3nNpoTBsCKQ4
The Diamond Princess was at sea for two weeks before the quarantine. The 60% estimate is for the total number who will be infected over the entire course of the pandemic.
Totoro, now you and I are on the same page. My numbers are roughly near your high end due to the percentage of elderly folks in Victoria. Also, those cases will likely be spread over many months, so the hospitals won’t be inundated with 500 critically ill patients simultaneously in a couple weeks.
The WHO treats asymptomatic/mild as synonymous in their calculations, so I simply refer to the entire group as ‘asymptomatic’ because the ‘mild’ symptoms seem to be negligible. A perfect example was the Canadian man who tested positive on the cruise ship that was quarantined in Japan; CBC interviewed him several times and he was deemed a ‘mild’ case even though he was asymptomatic, but he tested positive; therefore he was deemed ‘mild’.
I’m not being cavalier about this virus, I’m well aware that the 1918 Spanish Flu started in a similar way to CORVID-19, faded out for several months, mutated, then returned with a vengeance to kill millions of people, often within 12 hours of onset of first symptoms. Oddly, the mutated Spanish Flu virus suddenly appeared simultaneously, in August 1918, in at least three separate location around the world. If that happened today the conspiracy theorists would insist it was weaponized by one of the super-powers.
Wasn’t it you Grant who said Victoria tourism will be fine?
There’s currently a little kid going door to door in Oaklands (with his mom) dropping off letters in mailboxes. Letter says they are looking to buy a house, and includes a little drawing done by the kid. Have to say I haven’t seen this tactic before – a long shot but you never know.
The official advice is to call 811 and determine if you qualify to get tested. But good luck getting through to them today, the line appears to be overwhelmed.
From looking at the vanguard international etf, you could have made 70% if you bought right before the 2008 financial crisis, and sold it just before this one. That’s not including fees. 4.9% per year. Not exactly killing it. And that’s the best case scenario if you bought at the last peak.
One of the reasons I still question ETFs are the way to go. Low fees are the main attraction, so I would chose it over any mutual fund with fees over 1.5%
Ontario schools shutting down for a month. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-government-closing-schools-1.5495736
It’s essentially guaranteed we ain’t coming back after spring break now.
Switzerland
Some resources may be finite, but most like metals can be recycled. Fossils fuels are finite, because we convert it to energy, however we have almost infinite opportunity to extract energy from the sun. Lots of resources can be regrown. Obviously there is a finite amount of land on earth that can be cultivated, however lots of resources are renewable. The economy grows by being more productive and by population growth. Population growth will (probably) stop at some point, but I do not see any reason why humans would stop coming up with ways to be more productive.
Sounds a lot like “too big to fail”.
Sure, but that’s not what etfs do.
Japan in 1989 was really an outlier. The P/E ratio was almost 60. There are a lot more factors that make Japan different including big unproductive companies being left on life control with cheap debt. In a western economy a lot of those companies would have gone bust and replaced with stronger companies.
If you had invested in healthy Japanese companies, like Toyota, in 1989 you would still be doing fine.
Virus can remain viable “in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel” a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1
“ We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel.”
Is it though? From what I can tell you’d have much much lower returns if this isn’t based purely on the history of the US market.
CNBC.com is a good combination of news articles/videos and stock/commodities quotes. Quotes are realtime for US stocks and delayed for Canadian, but that’s standard for most sites. Also marketwatch.com
A friend of mine flew in from Toronto last Sunday and we spent the better part of day in close contact together. By early Wednesday morning I had a sore throat, runny nose, felt rather tired and weak. Mrs Fool became similar but with body aches. Feels different than how I usually feel with a cold.
Called up that friend of mine later that day Wednesday and he was aching all over in bed, coughing with a fever. Perfect I thought – thanks for sharing! He felt (and looked) just fine on Sunday. He’s refusing to go to the doctor, but it’s probably just as well. He hasn’t left his place since, according to him.
So we’re grounded and Mrs. Fool and I are working from home and staying there. I have no idea what we have, but whatever it is, the experience so far isn’t too serious. That friend of mine is faring rather differently atm from the sounds of things. He does smoke cigarettes FWIW which probably doesn’t help.
Not the end of the world; crates of toilet paper and gallons of oat milk so far are not required. 🙂
Sure but the takeaway is relevant for global markets. Buy an ETF that tracks the whole world’s markets.
Caveat – what country are you in, if you don’t mind saying?
that sucks. Few days makes a huge difference
Hey, I’d love some suggestions on what website ya’ll use to monitor real-time market prices of oil, commodities, stocks, etc.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Click on the tabs for other commodities. (metal etc)
Stocks
https://www.google.ca/finance
make a watch list.
I am currently in Europe in a country that is 20 or 30x more affected by the virus than Canada. It seems like there is some public appetite here for Italy level lockdown measures, but so far the government has held off doing much at all. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days here. It will probably be a preview of what is coming to Canada in the next one-two weeks.
Best Wishes to all. Stay healthy (and get better Barrister).
Listen to the public health experts or as a proxy for that follow totoro’s generally sound advice.
We, as a society, also have to find ways of not being triggered by minutiae.
Read.
6% asymptomatic.
I said nothing about mild.
Who is fear mongering?
Patti Bacchus: Planning for an indefinite spring break
https://www.straight.com/news/1372046/patti-bacchus-planning-indefinite-spring-break
A few minutes after I posted the above, I see:
All public schools in Ontario will be closed for two weeks after March break due to COVID-19
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/all-public-schools-in-ontario-will-be-closed-for-two-weeks-after-march-break-due-to-covid-19-1.4850653
So very true. Just as an example I am sick of Donald Trump being called childish, childlike, toddler-in-chief etc. Kids aren’t perfect but they generally aren’t lazy, insecure, deceitful, bullying, arrogant turds.
Wrong!! Stick to facts please. No fear mongering allowed.
WHO says that “For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic”
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
That was the WHO official statistic from a few days ago and the percentage of asymptomatic people keeps growing.
I’m not fear-mongering. I’m asking questions because I’d like to understand where we are at and there are many people on this board with good input or who have read articles I have not as this is a newer issue, quick to change and hard to model. And it affects us as a community so I want to make sure. I would like to be wrong about the numbers but I am just trying to figure it out.
If I understand what you are saying it is that the reported cases are actually 1/5 of the actual number of cases so the hospitalization rate will be lower as a % of the infected population than 10% of the population, it would 10% of those who actually test positive. That changes the numbers nicely. This would mean that if 30% of Victorian’s are affected that only 21,600 would end up being officially tested and confirmed. Of these, if we are like Wuhan, only 2160 would need hospitalization. This also reduces the mortality to somewhere between 216-648.
Anyone else done the math and have thoughts on this?
I’m not feeling great, either. Can’t tell if I’m coming down with something or if it’s the lingering effects of the time change.
Fuck that time change, btw. I read that the Yukon just scrapped the time change; last Sunday was the last clock-change they’ll ever have to do. Can’t wait for B.C. to follow suit, but if we’re waiting on the Western states to go first, it may never happen.
Also, I don’t care which time we choose (daylight saving time or not), I just don’t want to change the clocks anymore. The spring change is just brutal.
I read that daylight saving time was instituted during WWI to help conserve fuel and resources — awesome reason to keep doing something in the year 2020!
Hey, I’d love some suggestions on what website ya’ll use to monitor real-time market prices of oil, commodities, stocks, etc. I’m of course looking for something that’s customizable so I can follow just the things I’m interested in.
WHO says 6% of people are asymptomatic. More than that end up hospitalized.
Off-topic, but we, as a society, have got to find better ways of putting people down than by comparing them to children.
Once one is aware of childism, one begins to see how pervasive it is.
James I mean serious shopping by warren and charlie. That DAL purchase was like 0.4% of the cash reserve.
Bob also has the absolute worst timing and luck in the world buying at every peak and holding. lol seriously who even comes up with this types of comparisons. What if bob bought at the peak then sold it was 5% down then bought again when it was another 25% down, what would his returns be then?
It’s partly due to ‘Herd Immunity’. The vast majority of infected people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, so consequently the vast majority of people have immunity after their asymptomatic episode.
When doing any calculations about this virus you need to factor in the fact that most people who are/were infected do not report on the official statistics because they never visited a doctor or hospital.
For every person who attends a doctor or hospital at least four infected asymptomatic people do not. The actual number is probably much higher, some reports say the number of unreported is probably higher than 20:1. In essence that means that when you’re quoting statistics you need to clearly state that your numbers are based on the small percentage of people who were sick enough to visit a doctor or hospital. Several people on this blog are quoting numbers based on the symptomatic people who visited a doctor/hospital then they are extrapolating those numbers to the entire population and that gives a hugely exaggerated representative number, and that’s fear mongering… (looking at you Totoro)
The EU has completely mismanaged the situation with their ‘open borders’ so they are having a huge initial spike in infections, however that will rapidly taper off as immunity and herd immunity spreads.
Interesting stats coming out of hong kong. Rates of all infectious diseases, flu, colds, bacterial infections are way down. I guess all the hand washing and social distancing is having an effect.
They’ve already started. Bought a bunch of Delta. By the look of Occidental’s stock price, I think they’ve got their fingers in that one too.
Again, Bob invested in the American market. If Bob had invested in Japan. He’d be at 50% of whatever he had in 1989, 30 years later.
While watching the way the US administration is handling this currently, I’m not overly optimistic about American exceptionalism.
I’ve got a clam dip recipe that I’m dying to try out.
Speaking of buffet, BRK is sitting on about $120 billion of cash right now and I am certain Warren and Charlie are about to go shopping soon. Might want to consider investing in BRK, I’d be more comfortable them stock picking for me than doing it myself.
It’s hard to avoid paranoia right now. I don’t know if it’s here yet or not, but when you think logically, it seems rather possible:
-Washington State is the hardest hit area in the US right now, a country with hundreds of millions of people
-We are very close to WA state, with multiple flights, ferries, and car passengers (via ferry) arriving daily
-The US is recognized to have done a terrible job testing people; data from other locations (Korea, UK) suggests that many people with mild symptoms may be carriers – this suggests that many more WA residents are/were carriers with only mild/no symptoms
We have a toddler with an unexplained fever, and my spouse isn’t feeling great either. I have a mild headache today.
HHV meetup party at my place tonight! Everyone invited! Just kidding. Yikes.
Fully agree.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett.
Also, remember Bob. He saved all his money and bought right at the very top right before every crash but never sold. Total of $184k invested over 40 years, ended up with $1.1M. If he’d dollar cost averaged instead on a schedule, he would have ended up with over $2.3M.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/
Italy’s measures are no where as severe as the ones in Wuhan. Remember all those people saying what they were doing in Wuhan were violating human rights blah blah blah? And for us learning from this? look at the U.S. they had a 3 month warning and they still have no idea what they are doing. I doubt we will either. Just be glad you live in Victoria and not Vancouver or Toronto
I cannot be the only who considers it more likely than not that we already have this virus circulating? Are we more organized than Wuhan or Italy? I agree once the general public views this as a significant threat and have clear direction they will move to contain.
I’m much more encouraged by the comments coming from Canadian politicians than those south of the border. There aren’t many silver linings here, but perhaps two that will come from this are: 1) it’s important to have grown-ups in charge, 2) maybe this will help put a lid on the anti-vax nonsense that’s been spreading in recent years, and people will regain a respect for science.
“Moments of urgency require us to put aside our differences, have each others’ backs, stick together as a country and reassure the people of Ontario and the people of Canada that we’re all in this together,” – Doug Ford
“I have been in contact with a doctor and they do not believe I have symptoms consistent with COVID19. But their advice is for me to limit contact with the public until I am feeling better,” – Jagmeet Singh
It’s not impossible, especially if you are paying attention. I’m not looking to toot my own horn, especially since my decisions were based on the advice of others more knowledgeable about finance than me, but I went all cash in the beginning of Q3 2019 because I believed the market was a bubble. I watched as the market continued to soar for the rest of 2019 and into this year but still felt confident that while I may miss on some short term gains, and while I had no idea when things would switch, I still felt fundamentals indicated things would change. Now, perhaps I just got “lucky” but regardless at this point we’re looking at a very rocky and wild roller-coaster ride over the next few months. Cov-19 is wreaking havoc with the psyche of many investors. Drops in the market like this lead to all sorts of other bad things, margin calls, bankruptcies etc. Now it’s a matter of watching how things unfold and really scrubbing financials of companies to understand which companies are truly under threat (e.g. cruise lines) which will get a really bloody nose (e.g. airlines and travel) and which are getting unfairly hammered. So, I just don’t understand the “put on a blindfold and keep investing” approach. Rather, stay informed, do research, don’t get caught up in waves of panic or euphoria.
One other comment. Yes, over time – many decades now – the keep investing approach has worked in the long haul. But where is the end point? Because there is an end point out there somewhere. Infinite growth on a planet with finite resources and ecological constraints is NOT possible. This grow-grow-grow model we are using is actually certifiably insane. We all know the stresses the planet is under right now. The million dollar question is how far away is a real paradigm shift? It could still be quite far off, but personally I think the idea of retiring off of investments will be a thing of the past in 15-20 years, possibly sooner when you look at demographics, climate change and the rest.
By the time it comes here local authorities will have quite a bit of experience to fall back on from Wuhan, Italy, etc.
It’s not airborne….it isn’t rocket science to contain, just organization and the want to contain it.
And yet Italy does even with very severe restrictions and is making difficult triage decisions as a result. Wuhan did too. Why is it different here? Not trying to be contrary, trying to understand Marko – and I think you have more of a inside track on this than I do.
What losses though?
It’s been a decade long bull market. Everything I invested in went up for years. Worst that you’re getting is missing out on some gains.
So long as I buy back in before it reaches the point where it’s up to what I sold it for… how are you missing anything except mania? and at the very least, you’re missing out what could be an epic collapse.
Doctor in Ontario that caught it just came back from Hawaii.
The US is straight up lying. They’re not a low infection area right now.
Princess Cruises cancels trips, including four to Victoria
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/princess-cruises-cancels-trips-including-four-to-victoria-1.24096312
Victoria Coun. Ben Isitt is taking a motion to councillors today recommending Greater Victoria Harbour Authority and the federal government ban cruise ships from Ogden Point until the risk has subsided.
He also asks the federal government to provide assistance to workers and businesses affected by the reduced number of ships.
Not to drag the discussion into the loo, but there is some evidence of fecal-oral transmission with gastrointestinal symptoms being not uncommon with the virus. The WHO produced a paper on Feb 11 2020 suggesting that healthcare professionals should include querying patients for GI symptoms when investigating for potential Covid19 infection. I’m not sure why public health websites make no mention of it here.
https://www.idse.net/Emerging-Diseases/Article/03-20/GI-Tract-Possible-Route-of-Transmission-for-COVID-19-/57537
Trudeau in self-isolation as wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau tested for new coronavirus
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-trudeau-in-self-isolation-as-wife-sophie-tested-for-new-coronavirus/
Brazilian who met Trump tests positive for COVID-19
https://www.france24.com/en/20200312-brazilian-who-met-trump-tests-positive-for-covid-19
First of all we don’t have staff for 40 ventilators. Second of all people don’t stop driving off cliffs, overdosing and other crap that will land them in ICU.
There is maybe capacity for like 10 to 20 intubated additional patients.
As I said there will be such severe restrictions if hospitals are overwhelmed that the spread will likely be spread out over years. You won’t have 100s of people needing ventilation at once.
That’s interesting, Former Landlord.
Not sure if it’s the same at other schools, but I overheard so many parents at my kids’ elementary school discussing how fantastic their pre-Spring Break trip to Mexico, Aruba, and Hawaii was.
Relatively low-infection areas right now, but still…
At the bottom end of the Canadian projection of 30% infected ultimately, and assuming we experience infection more like China (10% needing hospitalization and 5% needing critical care) than the horrible stats coming from Italy (50% needing hospitalization and 10% needing critical care), we will have, at some yet to determined point based on transmission rates which we have control over to a certain extent, over 10,000 people needing hospitalization in Greater Victoria and 5,000 needing to go into ICU – likely needing ventilation.
And we have 40 ventilators?
Are these numbers correct. I feel like I’ve made an error somewhere. Perhaps our infection rates will be much lower and over a longer period of time?
In the Netherlands they are currently taking severe measures, but they have chosen to keep schools and day cares open. The reasoning was that cancelling school would be very disruptive, including limiting parents from working, including healthcare workers . Also more grandparents would end up watching the kids preventing some in this vulnerable group from being able to self isolate. They have also so far found low rates of infection in kids and these “gatherings” contain a low amount of international travelers.
Not sure if it is the right approach, but interesting perspective.
Agreed. And post-sec should move to online asap.
To truly flatten the curve, severe measures such as closing all public schools should really be implemented now, not when we get to 100 cases (Spring Break will serve this function, but government needs to consider extending the shut down past that).
If events hosting hundreds of people are being cancelled out of caution, then what is every school in the city but an event holding hundreds of people?
The cruise ships quarantined people and didn’t leave them circulating freely which would cut down some transmission. Some people on the Diamond Princess tested negative and then later positive after they disembarked. Many people were not tested. I don’t know think anyone knows for sure how many were infected.
of course Marko, realestate never goes down!!
Not sure how 60% makes sense but the federal health minister projects a 30-70% of Canadians will be infected.
She has the benefit of expert modelling/briefing behind her. And her figures are close to Germany’s projections. I just don’t understand how long this will take – maybe over the next year?
Likely the assumption is this thing sticks around for a couple years and/or indefinitely until the population acquires immunity.
Listing in the core $850k, 31 showings, 8 offers, sold unconditionally last night……….I can’t believe the confidence.
How does 60% make sense if the outbreaks on the cruise ships haven’t hit close to that number?
just be happy Victoria isn’t densely populated.
That’s the rub though, research shows it’s essentially impossible to know that. It could drop or it could run up. So you pull your money, lock in the losses so far, then the next day there’s a huge rally. You panic, think the market is recovering and put it all back in, only to see the market drop again.
At the bottom of the GFC there were millions of people convinced it would definitely drop further. Very few thought that was the bottom.
Better to pull out before the drop and buy in at the bottom of course, but I am not nearly smart enough to believe I can do that.
Yeah it can definitely happen. That’s also why you diversify worldwide. Most Canadians are way too heavily invested in Canada.
I am not saying that number is inaccurate. However, if I use the same math applied to Victoria on Italy with 60 million people, they would see 3.6 million people in ICU. Italy’s numbers show a mortality rate of 6-7%. I think Italy has way more cases than the official count. South Korea’s numbers show a mortality rate of under 1%. South Korea seems to be the only country currently doing widespread testing, so I would trust their numbers better. Based on that I would expect an IC rate of 1-2% of cases not 5-10%.
Even these lower would/could still overwhelm our hospitals, so I am not saying we should take this lightly.
Basically all the countries are trying to do these things at the same time: keep the economy going but at the same time not getting everyone infected and swamp your healthcare system. Very delicate balance.
All my stop losses hit so I now have realized losses from the little tranche I bought on Monday and Tuesday. Oh well been there before, now I wait for another entry point.
In my opinion layering in to your position is correct, layering in without any absolute clue of the basic economic environment around you is kinda of foolish.
@ Ash – good question – i don’t know until when – i just keep putting in same size positions (about 1-2K) over a week put – cashing every few days and continuing. If i see signs of a rebound (like the last dip when S and P was 2400 with a solid rebound) then i’ll probably stop until it drops below that point again. Crazy times for sure though!
I’ve never really understood this. If you really think it’s going to drop dramatically. Why not pull it?
I get that the US stock market has always rebounded, but you look at places like Japan, with the Nikkei which has never reached it’s 1989 high again… never really know.
Interesting though how China seemingly stopped the spread via their huge quarantine. Hard to imagine they can keep it there but hopeful sign
Never said I was a stock market genius. I simply shared my opinion based on what was happening which I thought was pretty obvious.
The vast majority of people should heed Leo’s sage advice and ignore all the stock market stable geniuses. This would be a great time to up your monthly contributions if you have financial capacity. You may also want to rebalance your portfolio in the coming months. Thanks to the market decline and falling bond yields you may now have too much fixed income allocation.
« emptor « Don’t they teach people Latin anymore?
Yes, 60% is from Angela Merkel and is the government’s estimate for German infection rates. I don’t know what stats translate to Canada. Seems like they differ country to country depending on a number of factors. Might be much lower in Canada. Italy is a country with a really high number of elderly folks – 23% are over 65. Much higher than Canada’s 15.6%.
landlord, that 60% is a quote from the health minister I believe.
Fear will be a good measure in itself. Talking to family in Croatia and people are staying home just on the basis of what is going on in Italy.
I think you are missing that Italy probably has a lot of people that are infected, but just staying at home and self isolating so not being counted in the total cases.
If you are really going to base your numbers off Italy, take all the numbers into account. They currently have 10,000 confirmed cases out of a population of 60 million, that is 0.017 % of the population not 60%. Obviously the numbers will rise, but you can’t use one stat from Italy and ignore the other relevant numbers.
lol i doubt most people here can afford the dream oak bay home at 50% off. I am very curious to see the severe measures put in place though. We can’t even keep people from camping on the steps of the legislature, I would love to see how we attempt to keep 300k people from leaving home.
Marko, you are forgetting about exponential growth, once you get to 100 confirmed cases it will likely be too late to put in the mass quarantine.
Probably right Marko, but I’m not sure yet as to where we will fall in the continuum of infection and critical care rates. I’d say Canadians will respond well when there is good public health messaging, and we have more social distancing options and cultural values, but it seems to me that we may be a bit behind ex. Asia, on this and I’m not sure how much our lack of population density makes up for this.
Yup….HHVers just as delusional about COVID19 as the real estate market 🙂
I spent four years frontline in ICU and while I know we aren’t equipped to handle a massive outbreak I don’t think there will be a massive outbreak in a short period. Once we get to 100 cases in Victoria or 6 ventilators I am sure severe measures will be put into place to restrict transmission. Life will suck for a couple of months cause your favorite resturant will be closed and I won’t be able to participate in the annual Nikola Tesla Rally in Croatia.
No, the world will not end and you will not be picking up your Oak Bay dream home for 50% off.
There won’t be massive defaults as the government will step in and do some sort of mortgage relief program until the situation is stabilized and it will stabilize. Mortality for a working age individual is well below 1% and when you factor in that not everyone will be infected we are likely in the neighbourhood of losing 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 working age individuals, worse worse case scenario.
Etc, etc.
I’ve lost a decent chunk since peak but I haven’t thought about it at all. What are you going to do? Life goes on. Now that Canadian banks are 6% +/- dividends pick up a few more positions and continue with the daily routine.
No, 60% is eventual rate of infection, not in one day. It is from here and this may not apply to Canada – I haven’t worked that out: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/europe/coronavirus-merkel-germany.html
Sorry, 10% of 220,662 is actually 22,066 who might need ventilators. I hope my math is incorrect.
I think 5% out of the infected will require ICU/ventilator based on the data from China (your math has this at only 1.9%). But result is the same, we don’t have enough ventilators. Infection rates in Victoria should be lower as we are not so densely populated or kiss each other every chance we get.
Did we go from the risk to Canadians are low to 60% might be infected in the span of one day?
So just to confirm I have this right, we have a potential of about a 60% infection rate depending on how much we clamp down on local transmission.
Whatever the eventual infection rate, 81% will likely have mild flu-like or no symptoms. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1237705045203877889
10% of the total infected will be need to be admitted to ICU on ventilators based on the stats from Italy – if we are like Italy? https://www.esicm.org/covid-19-update-from-our-colleagues-in-northern-italy/
And 50% of those who are able to access ventilators will likely develop ARDS if they survive based on Marko’s info?
Greater Victoria has a population of 367,770. If we reach 60%, this is 220,662 people infected. If this is correct, 156,730 will have minor or no symptoms. If 10% of all positives need ICU care with ventilators that is 15,673 people and we only have 40 ventilators in all of Greater Victoria?
Is my math correct? Is this information correct?
I am pretty sure your life will also never be the same after being on an ECMO machine even if you survive.
For those who are asking about the market bottom, I just did a quick back of the envelope calculation (mainly for my own curiosity). The latest S&P earnings forecast for this year i saw was 165/share today from i think goldman sachs. Assuming they are right and also assuming a compressed but still “reasonable” P/E of say 14x (historical is close to 17x) implies that the S&P should trade at 2,310. We are currently at 2741 and came down from almost 3400 less than a month ago. But again, if the states goes in to chaos then all bets are off.
*Please don’t hold me to this if it goes lower and don’t try to stick to me if it rebounds before reaching this level!!
@ks112
I work in the hospital system here. We are absolutely not prepared for large #’s if critically ill patients. Our ICUs are currently already at capacity. Hospital bed are also fully occupied.
ECMO will absolutely NOT be an option if we have a big outbreak. We may have 0-3 EMCO patients in the city any any one time. It is extremely expensive and resource intensive.
Let’s all work together on social distancing and good flu hygiene to at least slow the spread.
Marko, how many ECMO machines do we have in Victoria? So my understanding for those with serious symptoms is that it goes like this: regular oxygen therapy (those tubes in your nose), high pressure oxygen therapy (air tight mask), ventilator (tube in your lung) and then finally ECMO (blood gets circulated through a mechanical lung for oxygen then put back in your body). The last two would be in the ICU, am I right?
Ash,
My don’t hold any positions over the weekend advice from Feb 28 was directed anyone actively trading in this market to not hold any positions over that weekend as there was a high likellyhood the open on Monday will be significantly lower than the close on Friday. I was not giving out advice for investors invested in the market for the long term, but it seemed like that’s what people took it as.
Investment strategy for this market? I don’t have any other than buying good companies that are “on sale”. I personally will not be buying anymore until I get a clearer picture of how this infection progresses in the states, should see in about a week and half. As for selling, in every position I have, I have an auto stop loss of -5% and I calculate that on the weekend and put in the order on Monday morning, I only move this up every week but not down. This takes the emotion out of selling as it is sold automatically, painful lessons I have learned over the years but it has paid off (I remember holding on to stocks that were down 50% thinking it will bounce back…)
Thanks good find. Can’t imagine business as usual either.
Hard to imagine ‘business as usual” will continue much longer, in the midst of a global pandemic.
https://www.redfin.com/blog/redfin-coronavirus-housing-market-virtual-tours/
“ But over the past three days in Seattle, where the first U.S. coronavirus death was confirmed on Saturday, February 29, we’ve seen a significant drop in demand from homebuyers and sellers.”
And in Italy, all shops and restaurants closed until at least March 25.
And I’m sure it will continue for some time. I truly don’t think people have really thought through the impact that this is going to have. The stock market certainly hasn’t costed it all in yet. And day by day as new information comes in, we will get a better sense of what is going to happen.
Just a week or two ago there was a commenter on here stating that Victoria Tourism should be just fine. Canadians will just fill the void that other international travellers will leave. I think with all the new information out there that opinion has probably changed. Look at the stimulus packages coming out all over the world to combat what is already happening as well as what is about to happen. We hear about airlines and cruise ships right now. But what are the second and third order effects of no sports venues, no mass gatherings, of prolonged school closures (a week or two extra after spring break), of people actively avoiding social contact. The service industry will be hit hard. But other industries will not remain immune. Look at italy, all stores just ordered to close down with the exception of grocery stores and pharmacies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51845817
I don’t know about you, but there aren’t too many small to medium businesses that i know that have that kind of retained earnings to keep things going too long. And what about their staff? Not trying to say the sky is falling but i sure as heck would be assessing the situation and the risks prior to making a major financial decision if there was even the hint of a potential job loss or gap in income.
I’m going to assume that is a trolling statement but i’ll respond regardless. The fuss is, this is spreading rapidly and owing to that rapid spread, and who it affects the most (the elderly), it has the very real possiblity of overwhelming our medical system. For those of you who think we are well prepared and our health care system is great… you might want to re-think that. As already stated by another poster, we are already running at pretty much max capacity. Now add on top of that significant numbers of elderly requiring emerg services and then a space at the ICU. All of the sudden, resources are shifted to deal with the new demand, except all the other extant demand is still there. What now?
Triage. Shitty life and death decisions. Imaging having to tell a family as they bring grandma in that the inn is full, there is nothing they can do, take grandma home and give her some OTCs and say your goodbyes. Not a pretty picture whatsoever. So yeah, not really “just a flu”.
Listen to what Totoro is saying. Slow this shit down as much as humanely possible so our health care system can deal with a manageable, slow increase of patients rather than a massive influx.
And if everything i have said above doesn’t come to fruition, then i am absolutely accepting of years of making fun of me for being alarmist. It is one thing i would 100% love to be wrong about.
I’ve lived through the 1987 crash, the 9/11 crash, and the 2008 mortgage derivative crash. In those cases, things recovered relatively quickly, but they were disturbing as hell while they were happening. So far, this one feels like the 2008 crash, i.e., pretty scary. The 1929 crash arguably didn’t really end until WWII, although some would argue that it was improving around ’36 or ’37 until the U.S. government quickly withdrew stimulus. Either way, that’s a long bear market, so it’s good to have a long horizon.
I’m comfortable with my stock allocation, so I’m riding it out. I’ll be reinvesting small amounts out of my bond holdings on a monthly basis until I get back to the level I’m comfortable with. For me, that’s 100% minus my age. Nothing magical about that formula, but it’s worked for me. My advice is: market timing is a fool’s errand and market timers always have selective memories, so pick the level of risk you can live with, then try not to panic or get greedy during volatile markets. Easier said than done.
Stay invested and buy more as it drops if you can. Things will right themselves eventually and you, fortunately, have time on your side. It is going to be ok.
I don’t care about what I already have invested and don’t check it as I’m using ETFs and can wait for recovery. I am focusing on investing through the drops now though. It does depend on your age and time to withdrawal a bit, but if you are a in the elderly category you should be in lower risk investments already.
Market history over the last 100 years suggests that this will, over a long time horizon like yours, be a small blip. I wouldn’t sell a thing if I were you, despite the media making everyone think the end of the world is nigh. If I were retiring in 2 weeks and cashing out, yea, that would suck. But you’re not in that camp.
Yep that’s what we’re doing.
I checked my portfolio once a week or so ago, haven’t since and don’t feel particularly concerned or interested in it. Great financial crisis saw some indexes drop 50%. The sky was falling then too, and yet balanced portfolios recovered in just a few years. Note the many international crises in the chart below that now look like no more than a blip. Note also that the “recovery” time is much shorter with regular investing (which is what you would do) and when looking at a balanced portfolio, not 100% DJIA (which would be a bit nuts).
Ignore the news, keep putting in your regular investments if you have a long time horizon. If your down payment was in the markets well.. that was probably a mistake.
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dows-tumultuous-120-year-history-in-one-chart-2017-03-23
So what of real estate? So far no sign of any impact. You might think that new listings would decline (if worried about inviting strangers in their house). But no, up 3% from the rate last year.
Sales declining as people get worried about their wealth and put off big decisions? No, sales up 29% in the trailing 7 days compared to last year.
Market is hopping, one imagines it will change if things get worse, but so far no sign.
Seattle is a week or two ahead of us with widespread work from home and now school shutdowns. But a brief glance at various forums there seems like business as usual in real estate.
Re: Market Plunge
Are people generally hanging on to their investments and riding this thing out? I am mid 30’s professional with a long time horizon, but the COVID 19 financial situation is causing much anxiety. I thought I had prepared for this correction by reading tons of books that tell you not to market-time and buy-hold, but I’m surprised how much the losses and uncertainty are scaring me. I know it’s very difficult to predict, but how bad can the markets get and was my decision to stay the course and not sell unwise?
Costco no busier than usual I would say. No toilet paper, but a stack of bidets where it usually is. Marketing genius. Why sell $12 toilet paper when you can sell a $450 bidet? Jokes on them I already ordered one on amazon.
exactly Leo S – all shot on iphone 🙂
This is your big chance Marko. I can imagine the movie trailer (if you’ll forgive me the black humour)
Opening shot: A bat in a Chinese wet market sneezes on a Pangolin which breathes on an old lady browsing the goods.
Cut to wide shots of sleepy Victoria.
Enter frame, Marko in his Tesla, doing realtor things.
He’s making the big bucks but when he sits in his steel and concrete condo at night he gazes out over the city and the audience understand he feels unfulfilled. On the wall the certificate for best ventilator technique. In the background you can just see an excited TV anchor reporting from a hospital in another country. FORESHADOWING!
Pandemic strikes! Society collapses, the hospitals are overwhelmed.
In the middle of signing some papers with clients Marko says “I can’t do this shit anymore” and walks out.
Cut to action scenes, he’s digging up some old surplus ventilators from storage (“it’s an older model but it checks out”), he’s wiring up ventilators to his Tesla in the parking lot, he’s dragging dying people out of the hallways of the hospital and hooking them up, he sits back exhausted, he coughs..
Cut to black.
Coming Summer 2020…..
That is new information for me. Thanks. Even more reason to take care.
STOP. This is untrue and misinformation right now is dangerous. The death rate from COVID-19 appears to be higher than the flu and unlike the flu there are no anti-virals, nor is there a vaccine. If we have a spike in cases we won’t have the equipment, staff or beds to handle it and even more will die. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
STOP. This is untrue and misinformation right now is dangerous. There is a genome-specific and anti-body specific test test for coronavirus. https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-tests-work.html
And, yes, if we are in a triage situation it is going to be so difficult for everyone – keep in the blue zone folks.
fyi….COVID19 patients that need vents basically end up with ARDS.
It is ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) which historically has 47% mortality. I was involved in a few cases at the Jubilee where we put younger ARDS patients on ECMO but doubt anyone including young patients will be getting ECMO in an outbreak, just too much staffing required.
Let’s hope that the majority of ARS (acute respiratory syndrome) patients will be the frail institutionalized elderly, who will already have Do Not Resuscitate orders. Typically, a DNR order precludes mechanical ventilation, and may even prevent transfer to acute care.
Interesting thing is I was given an award by the faculty @ TRU for my clinical ventilator skills and knowledge of mechanical ventilation in 2007….and here I am flipping paper. What society rewards is funny.
That’s what they’re doing currently in italy. Anyone over 60 is out of luck. Anyone with comorbidities is out of luck.
I just confirmed with a friend that we have 40 ventilators in Victoria, but he says there wouldn’t be enough staff to support 40 vents.
6% percent of cases need to be ventilated. Mortality rate for those that are ventilated is around 50% so that ends up being 2-3% mortality overall.
Up to two weeks on the ventilator, assuming you survive.
Basically if there is a serious outbreak we are screwed…I am guessing they just won’t have any choice but not to ventilate anyone over xx age.
Between 30 and 70 per cent of Canadians could be infected with coronavirus, [federal Health Minister] Patty Hajdu says
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-between-30-and-70-per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/
Similarly,
Merkel Gives Germans a Hard Truth About the Coronavirus
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/europe/coronavirus-merkel-germany.html
@rush4life
Until when exactly? I agree with a lot of what you said – this thing is only getting started, but how are you going to pick the market bottom? What if it doesn’t reach 40%?
@ks112
I’m still at a loss as to what your investment strategy is. Did you sell investments prior to the 28th with a plan to use the proceeds to buy back in later? If so, how much did you sell? 10%? 30%? 100%?! Etc.
What’s all the fuss about the COVID-19?
Compare annual influenza/flu to COVID-19:
Over 500,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year (Flu with pneumonia).
COVID symptomatic Cases: 130,000
‘Presumed’ COVID Deaths: ~5000 (pneumonia related)
Since the authorities do not have 100% reliable tests for COVID-19, how are they distinguishing between the two very similar causes of death?
COVID-19 mortality rate needs to increase by a factor of one hundred before it matches the annual flu.
NBA suspends season indefinitely over coronavirus pandemic
https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-03-11/nba-suspends-season-indefinitely-over-coronavirus-pandemic
Banning flights from Europe is not going to stop this based on the research available. It might slow it down slightly. We need to start taking steps individually to protect our parents and grandparents and other vulnerable folks by reducing our own risk of infection and transmission – make sure everyone in the family knows how to do this. I am actively posting the information I am sure is backed by science here, on social media, and to my friends and family, and I urge you to do the same. Look at the graph Leo S posted below from the economist and pass it on. As a community we need to stay in the blue zone.
Wow – US bans flights from Europe.
Well. We’ve got one on Vancouver island.
Thanks for the in-depth explanations to my flight statement. Makes a lot of sense.
First Italy now India.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-quarantines-itself-from-world-for-a-month-to-fight-coronavirus/articleshow/74584811.cms
If you have an online broker you will need to send some additional paperwork to trade options. You can also buy an inverse ETF if you want to bet on the market going down. SPXU is one that is 3x leveraged so if the market goes down 5% in one day you will gain 15% and vice versa.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/oak-bay-man-must-pay-16494-to-fix-broken-sewer-line-on-municipal-property
The property taxes aren’t bad enough? Check the language used to describe the person “sleeping in the basement” who discovered the leak. It’s certainly not a basement suite!
How do you buy put options?
Gonna be a lot more ‘sale dates’ totoro – seems like this thing is just getting started. 7000 cases today worldwide – triple what was happening in the peak of China – the max i had seen previously was, unsurprisingly, yesterday at 4500 ish infected. During its total reign SARS infected about 8000 people TOTAL. By next week that will be the daily figure for COVID-19. Disneyland is still open, no impacts in Victoria at all yet, only 100 cases in Canada thus far. This thing is a long way from running its course (at least a few months according to the infectious disease expert on Joe Rogan podcast yesterday). Could easily drop another 20% or more in the market. Until then I’m continuing to buy put options.
Stock sale today too! I bought.
well if I had two houses, I would have definitely sold one, I live in a rental condo while renting out the house I own. As a result it is a little hard for me to sell the only piece of real estate I own which happens to be cash-flow positive as I don’t have absolute conviction yet.
I wish! Divvies and cap gains. The current state of stock market affairs is certainly exciting, but if you don’t sell there’s no crystallized loss. I’m coining a new phrase – Hindsight is 2020 – it can’t come soon enough.
I love real estate; it made me FI, but it looks like the top is in for now. You’re probably wise to take your winnings and look for more promising returns elsewhere.
I certainly take no pleasure in the uncertain future of condos; friends of ours just guided their highly leveraged, 25 year old offspring into one and I’m just biting my lip. It’s a perfect storm of factors brewing that could do some real harm to those who are subsidizing renters, or running a hot-pillow AirBnB.
Leo S. how am I congratulating myself? And lol why didn’t you come to my aid when they were trying to stick to me about missing the rebound.
I took a small bite and bought some this Monday, and have lost money today but I will keep tranching in. The reason I said don’t hold anything over the weekend of Feb 28 was because that is when the first shoe dropped outside China where it was becoming obvious it is going to be an issue. I personally will wait and see how the U.S. infections play out before going all in. You can buy some now if you think certain stocks are attractive enough from a valuation standpoint.
Bingo. Don’t congratulate yourself on market timing until you are back in. I saw this so many times during 2008/2009. When market sentiment was the worst in the spring of 2009 the people that had said to sell were still saying it’s going to go down more. And when the market went up again they said “dead cat bounce!” and kept waiting.
If you’re smarter and luckier than everyone else then time the market. For most with a long investment horizon it’s better to ride it out, buy more regularly, and perhaps consider doubling down when the market is on sale.
You would have also missed out on the large run-up yesterday. On paper I have lost a ton of money. However, if I had pulled out all my money I would have guaranteed to have made huge losses. Including a capital gains bill that would probably have been equivalent to my paper losses so far.
The problem is, I would not know when to buy back in. Do I buy back in today? Next week? Next month? I could end up waiting too long and have to buy back in after the market had recovered. Again cementing in a huge loss due to tax on capital gains, so not having as much money to ride the recovery on.
lol sold out, I am actually not bullish on the housing market if you read my prior posts, I was seriously contemplating on cashing out. My rental house generated positive cash flow of roughly $9k last year (typical 70’s GH house with 3 bed room up top and 2 bed room suite down stairs). You yielded $100k in dividend income in your portfolio eh, so assuming a 4% dividend you got $2.5M invested, so you just lost approx. $500k in the past month (in paper of course :)).
LMAO, my comment wasn’t even directed at you it was directed at Former Land lord and that Caveat Emperor or whatever. Anyhow, hope you got more cash on hand to invest because I think the best opportunity in the last 10 years will present itself in the next 2 weeks.
My portfolio is at the same value as it was one year ago, much like your SFD is. It also yielded $100,000 dollars last year. How much did your house pay you last year?
For those condo pumpers in the room. Check out predictions for YVR. I’m sure Victoria’s different, though.
https://www.eitelinsights.com/marketupdateblog
1:42 – crickets
Patrick, what a week in the stock market so far! Also crickets from those two whom were saying last week that if you sold two Fridays ago then you would have missed out on the rebound last Monday. Just like bears here after the run up in house prices, lol…. too funny!
That’s a tough situation Grant. Quite possible that warmer destinations will be less affected. Have read about how India despite crowding had less impact from previous outbreaks due to the heat.
Easy decision for us we lose a couple hundred max. But $7k is another matter entirely. Look into whether they would be open to a change of dates rather than cancellation with less/no penalty.
Our destination advised us they are waiving change fees
The default setting for many introverts!
This is what I’ve been trying to get my daughter to understand, as she and her sister very much still want the 4 of us to go to Bali in 10 days. It’s a tricky decision and we probably won’t know whether we are going or not until a day or two beforehand. Ultimately we have about $7000 invested in this trip, and that’s hard to simply walk away from. If the Canadian government issues a travel advisory for Bali, or generally advises to not do international travel, our insurance will kick in and we’ll get our airfare and accommodation money back. But barring that, with cov-19 cases in Canada, Bali and our transit point low, we’re at this point still leaning towards going. On other forums those in Bali say it’s so quiet it’s an absolutely fantastic time to visit.
So – if it were just a few hundred bucks it’d be easier to write off the investment- but $7K is not chump change.
The health care system is getting ready but there are only so many ventilators. Ask Marko. There are only so many beds and we are already operating at over 100% capacity inmost of our hospitals. It is not just about washing your hands now, although that is very important. It is about social distancing and self-quarantines and looking out for others. And yes, IMO based on the best data I’ve found, we have about two weeks to prevent a sharp spike so let’s get on it.
That isn’t what I said. What I did say that is that we should not presume they are doing nothing to prepare for that possibility. I didn’t say that no one will die because they couldn’t get the right care fast enough. That’s entirely possible; it might even be likely. And yes, I understand the graph; it’s rather obvious.
It’s for both reasons I said, “wash your hands” about a half dozen times. That is the single most powerful thing everyday people can do to inhibit the spread of disease.
You are dead wrong on one important point Local Fool. Our health care system does not have capacity to handle a sharp uptick – it will not ‘crack’ but people will die as they won’t have equipment, staff or space to treat them. See the graph below posted by Leo S. We know from other countries that the transmission rate is key. It is here already. It is no longer about stopping it from arriving, it is about slowing transmission rates to give people a chance to get care. I am by nature extremely rational and not prone to overstatement or speaking about what I have not researched. I am taking all steps I can reasonably take to stop transmission and I urge everyone to do the same.
H1N1 ended up killing about 20,000 people. One of my friends had beaten cancer 3 years earlier, and was finally back on track and doing his masters. Died from complications from H1N1. It was a big deal for people who were immunocomprimised.
This is the key chart. Everyone should take measures to flatten the curve so the health care system does not get overwhelmed. When it’s overwhelmed is when you get many needless deaths that otherwise wouldn’t have happened with proper treatment. And not just the elderly.
Yeah Korea apparently has been deploying drive through testing essentially where you can get a test no questions and rapid results.
I think you haven’t read enough on this (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/) . Italy is currently cracking, in the richest part of the country with a great health care system. Even if Germany, France, Spain, US goes down the road of what Italy has done w/r to quarantining, there’s still at least week of built in because there are people who have it that don’t know about it and have no symptoms yet.
Victoria won’t be hard hit as it is not very densely populated. If you are worried, don’t goto costo this weekend as I am sure it will be a zoo in there with everyone trying to horde everything.
Lets see how the U.S. does in the next 1.5 weeks as they didn’t seem to care too much about COVID-19. They are currently on the same or worse trajectory as Italy.
Perhaps. I feel like that’s something they should do earlier on – unfortunately they tend to do that sort of thing on a reactionary basis and by then, there may not be the same ROI. I certainly think during any global viral outbreak we should be inhibiting, if not banning, docking of Cruise Ships at Ogden Point. Kind of seems obvious as those modes of transport amplify risk. Flights seem more iffy to me. Tourism will suffer in the interim, but that’s hardly a long lasting state of affairs.
I agree. Nor should you listen to unbridled fear mongering and predictions of imminent disaster despite no credible evidence that it will occur. The fact that some people and countries are responding dramatically doesn’t actually mean it equals disaster, it means they’re afraid of something they don’t know – and trying to limit the spread. The best advice for almost everyone is unchanged from any other time – wash your hands regularly with soap and water. Anyone who takes no precautions at all, especially during an outbreak, is a fool. It’s about understanding the limitations of what you can do, and doing that, and the futility of thinking it’s upon you to stop a pandemic or that you can avoid it.
That’s where the genuine risk is, and that is where the value of washing your hands and being conscientious is. But when people become obsessed with it, scared of it, and stockpile resources, that implies an unhelpful, impulsive fear response – which are often motivated by media.
And it’s lines like that, that make people run out and stockpile. “We have about 2 weeks” – as though the death clock is ticking; after that disaster, pandemonium and mass-misery may loom. This is not airborne Ebola. Could it tax the healthcare system? Sure. Should we presume that they are oblivious to that and doing nothing to prepare for that possibility? No. The healthcare system isn’t going to systemically crack, for goodness sake. Despite what some people think, our healthcare system is actually pretty amazing and filled with a lot of talented and hard working people.
Humans have an innate tendency to draw dire conclusions, especially over themes associated with pandemics, rival clans, and societal break downs. It’s why notions of apocalypse and war are so pervasive in our oral and literary history. It all sounds scarier when someone with sufficient eloquence and intellectual capital is spewing that dire prediction. Only hindsight is 20/20 and whether it’s bad or not, don’t worry about something you generally cannot control. Just don’t go on a cruise and make sure your family washes their hands.
I’m not that concerned for healthy folks, or for children thankfully, or for myself for that matter. I’m concerned about transmitting it and being part of a huge uptick in cases that causes 4% of the affected to die when it could have been avoided. Now is the time to think about what you can do for the vulnerable, not about your personal low risk. So don’t sit in worry, take the recommended actions and spread the word about those steps.
Yeah, my parents-in-law from Calgary were set to fly out for a visit during Spring Break but, after careful consideration, decided it would be best not to travel right now. I think they were partly worried about being stuck far away from home should the situation and protocols escalate.
I confess that I’m having a difficult time determining just how worried to be. Many smart people out there are saying that basically this isn’t as big a deal as some are making it. But many other smart people seem to be saying something rather different.
For context, I didn’t worry at all about SARS (I was ~21), Avian flu, or even H1N1. In fact, I remember being so annoyed at what I perceived to be the news media’s over-coverage of H1N1.
Thanks Leo and Totoro, good comments there. With regards to calling 811 and getting testing, I was surprised to learn that testing isn’t being offered widely yet, even for those with flu-like symptoms. They are only testing those with direct prolonged contact with people from affected areas (Wuhan, Italy, Iran, S Korea), which seems shortsighted to me given where things are at.
Do not listen to people who tell you that you shouldn’t take action because you are not high risk and it is just like the flu. Leo S is correct, at this point I have no doubt it will get bad here unfortunately. You should prepare now. Looking at trajectories, we have about two weeks to slow things down before it multiplies so quickly and fast that our health care system will be overwhelmed.
This is not about stockpiling or your own personal health if you are in a low risk category, it is about our neighbours and family members who are in higher risk categories. It is about flattening the curve of infection now so that our hospitals and, particularly, critical care units can cope. You should be worried, but not panicked. This is a time for action, not piling up supplies in your shed that you won’t be able to use in two weeks.
wash your hands!
use sanitizer when you can’t – put a bottle in your car and at the entrance in your home
start social distancing where possible (6 feet)
try to stop touching your face as much
put a stop to avoidable travel – that includes local travel imo
use online doctors – avoid clinics when possible
contact your neighbours,and set up a buddy system – let them know you are there for them if need be if they are quarantined. Someone will still need to get groceries and walk dogs and if your neighbour is elderly or lives alone this is doubly important so that someone is checking in
call 8-1-1 if you have symptoms – we should have home testing set up soon.
The death rate if we get overwhelmed with folks needing respirators will rise to 5% most likely – that is 5% of all diagnosed cases but a very very significant rise of avoidable deaths among those who are sick enough to need hospitalization – it can be as low as 1% if we are not overwhelmed.
It is our job as community members to take care of those who are most vulnerable. We need to shift the dialogue from us personally to those who need it most. And health care workers, I thank you in advance.
Not consumed with worry, but not taking any unnecessary risks. So far the experts are consistent in their messaging. I suspect within a couple weeks we’ll see widespread work at home orders from government and other employers in Victoria. Good timing for kids spring break in some ways.
And the more you do that, the more fearful you’ll become. Most people who read the news have a higher perception of danger than those who do not, especially if the content of that broadcast aligns with your existing perceptions. Don’t ask me how I know. 🙂
The only risk I can see is the demographics in this city are relatively favorable for an excess load on the health care system in the event of an outbreak, but that’s not something particularly new. People who are infected need to quarantine themselves for exactly that reason, because some people really will need help.
Fine, unless you’re looking after, or are, a person who is actually at serious risk from this. For most people, so long as they observe sensible precautions like they would any other time, I wouldn’t sit there and be consumed with worry. Don’t touch escalator banners, elevator buttons, public washroom door handles or keyboards, shopping carts, and wash your hands regularly with soap and water. If you get it (plenty will), call 811, they’ll ask you some questions, test you positive, and in the vast majority of cases tell you to go home and sleep it off. And indeed, stay home.
Stopping your life, preemptively strapping a silly mask on your face, locking yourself in a room rabidly digesting the latest COVID-19 news update amongst boxes of Royale and oat milk is the kind of foolish group-think behavior that isn’t going to do anything but cost you money and make you feel worse. You might as well buy those “influenza shoes” from 100 years ago.
Each time this happens, people say the same things, just like the housing market. Almost everyone here is old enough to remember SARS, Swine flu, Avian flu, mad cow disease (that was going to be the end of beef, if you recall). “This is different, this is unknown, it’s not just the flu, it could mutate, it’s going to be a catastrophe, it might have a mortality rate of 4% instead of 1% etc. And could this outbreak be the doomsday virus we all fear? I doubt it, but in any case there’s no reason to believe at this point that it is.
Let the powers that be do what they can to mitigate (they are actually pretty decent at it), do what little you can, otherwise use common sense and understand that shit happens, folks. Get over it and on with your life.
It would be foolish to presume that BC’s second largest metro region and major tourist hub wouldn’t get it. It’s inevitable and has probably been here for weeks already.
Reading more about this, listening to Sam Harris’s podcast and some others I’m more and more convinced that it’s going to get very bad here. Most Victorians are still dismissive.
We’ve cancelled our trip to Washington. Hunkering down.
Stay safe everyone
By the time you realize your neighbour is coughing or sneezing it is usually too late to move even if another seat is available, which it often isn’t. “Social distancing” isn’t really possible in an airplane, even in business class.
[What about banning airplane flights into Victoria? Aren’t they just flying cruises without the amenities?]
I saw an interesting article that compares ship cruises to airline flights. It says that airline flights are much safer. Here’s why:
Most cruise ships set sail for a week or two. Most airline flights are for only a few hours. There’s a greater chance of one person spreading the illness on a cruise ship because he or she gets more time to mingle with the others.
Cruise ships are notorious for spreading illnesses. They have a history of norovirus, stomach flus, and other bad contagions due to a lot of reasons. For example, a lot of people show up for supper all at the same time, a lot of them eat at buffet style restaurants where 300 people can handle the same serving spoon, they all swim in the same pool or go to the same spa, and there’s a lot personal intimacy. When you are on a cruise, you are out at night enjoying yourself, meeting people, shaking hands, dancing, etc. On an airplane you are usually just sitting in your seat alone minding your own business. You could wear a face mask for the entire plane flight which can help to make you safe. In fact, I think it should be mandatory (right now) that any person who gets on a plane has to wear a mask.
Typically, a cruise ship expedition contains passengers from many places around the world. There could be as many as 10 or 20 different nationalities represented on one ship cruise. This means that there’s a greater chance of a person from an infected country boarding the ship. Airline flights are usually direct. They come from one designated place. Most passengers are from the same city. Take Calgary, for example. Presently (the authorities know that) there are very few people in Calgary that have the Coronavirus, so the odds of a Calgary Westjet flight showing up at the Victoria Airport with a passenger who has the virus are very low. A plane flight from a known infected area (Wuhan, South Korea, Italy, Iran) would not be permitted to land at Victoria International Airport.
There’s more reasons. Please see the article
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-cruise-warnings-1.5491789
Well that was inevitable for the rental buildings. Expect it will go to single family next. Maybe not the same extremes but same factors at play.
Property insurance for rental properties is also increasing. Another subsidy paid for by landlords so their tenants can have low rent. So happy I’m no longer a landlord.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/squeeze-is-on-rental-housing-hit-by-rising-insurance-costs/amp
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/dont-buy-an-air-purifier-to-protect-from-coronavirus
You probably have more chance catching a virus from being on the bus with someone than being on the same flight. Aircraft use HEPA filters to filter the air. Just don’t sit next to someone that is coughing and sneezing.
What about banning airplane flights into Victoria? Aren’t they just flying cruises without the amenities?
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/mobile/victoria-area-school-closed-as-community-member-awaits-covid-19-test-results-1.4846696
And so it begins?
Lets hope not.
I actually was thinking of you when I put that together. 🙂
Can be rather worthwhile to make light of that which brings misery, for sometimes that’s all you can do…
Local Fool: That was good for a smile.
An amusing Times Colonist article from 103 years ago during the Influenza outbreak, and a bit of a satire on the panic that we sew for ourselves. Probably hard to read on here, but it’s basically an observation that doctors tend to prescribe “terrible and nerve shaking technical words for the most trivial ailments, and yet, selected a boring word, “influenza” for the flu. Some excerpts below – have a chuckle at how little we’ve changed…
“When influenza made its first great invasion of this country (in 1891), the doctors were too astounded at its malignance, too overworked with their patients to think of a properly frightful name for the new plague. So it was called “influenza”, just like the majority of dogs are called “Bob”, to save the trouble of invention. The word influenza about as much describes the horrible plague it names as the gentle word Mesopotamia describes the most horrible country on Earth. It is a hacked-out word. Its coinage is debased; everyone who has a cold in the head calls it influenza, everyone who wants a day off from work snatches a telegraph form and writes, “Sorry unable to come office influenza”.
The doctors use terrible and nerve shaking technical words for the most trivial ailments…but my own doctor has confessed there is no name for influenza. “Oh, just influenza”, he said. “Can’t you just invent a decent thrilling name for it that I can wire to the office?” I implored.
The plague that makes a slippered pantaloon of a strong man in three days, the makes tobacco taste like the fumes of Tophet, that gives you every ache and pain that is known, that makes you more despondent than the Emperor of Austria, that turns your brain into a pulp, your backbone into a stick of asparagus, your legs into tape and your feet into lead; the plague that is awful while you are laid up ill, but a hundred times more awful when you are “getting better”, the plague the convalescence of which is a fresh and worse distemper!
“Influenza – cannot the doctors think of something stronger and more “frightful” than that simpering word?
Let me coin one for them – “Utterslumpitis Horribilis Morbitus Superbus”
The office might be impressed with that.
Marko: Once people are positioned and committed to buying then externals like the stock market really dont have a lot to do with it.
It is pretty random but defintively homes in the core under $1 mill with a suite are a strong market. I would have thought that stock market would have cooled off the market as a whole and it has not yet. I would have also thought the whole insurance fiasco would have slowed down condo sales and it has not yet either.
Where are the busiest hoods, or can you see any distinction?
Real estate market makes zero sense to me…..I have five accepted offers for buyers on my desk so I’ve been sending out a ton of emails last 24 hours for septic, well, oil tank scans, home inspections, surveys, etc…and probably the most booked up I’ve ever seen these services. Getting replies along the lines of. I would have thought the stock market tanking would have cooled things off a bit.
Probably has something to do with damages… although you’d know that better than I would.
All the best to you. Glad to hear they’re at least managing the pain well.
Thank you Leo but afraid it is chronic and not treatable. But I am comfortable and not in pain. Enough said.
The economics of Pandemics is strange at best. We actually dont make that much money from cruise ship passengers particularly compared to longer stay hotel guests. What may be more important is a visible demonstration by the government that steps are being taken to manage the situation. If faith is lost in either our political leaders or institutions the resulting panic can be devastating.
Well that will be a big hit to the hospitality sector here if it persists. Lots of servers and waitresses were loving those USD tips.
I think there are talks of cancelling cruise ship landings. There will be a decision soon – likely next week. https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/federal-government-mulls-cruise-ship-industry-shutdown-because-of-virus-1.24094145
I don’t know if cancelling all cruise ship arrivals is on the table, but it should be.
Apologies about the gloomy post Barrister. Best wishes to you.
I thought the virus was waning but a google search proved me wrong. This link has graphs that track the number of virus infections by country, based on when their first COVID-19 cases appeared.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJBQ7GiyvFTBnSEEC/growth-rate-of-covid-19-outbreaks
Welcome back Barrister. Hope you’re recovering, I see your mind is as sharp as ever. Totally agree the cruise ships should be banned until the virus is under control.
Thank you for all the kind thoughts all of which mean more than you imagine. Enough said.
I am rather confused about why our Minister of Health is on the one hand warning people of the dangers of being on a cruise ship which apparently are floating petri dishes but is doing nothing about having thousands of cruise ship visitors swarming downtown Victoria and Vancouver all summer. In fairness to all people involved if we are going to block the cruise ships we need to do it now and not at the last minute.
Coronavirus: Banks to allow customers to defer mortgage payments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51817947
I would expect something similar in Canada if coronavirus really starts spreading in Canada.
Active management in the equity market, both in the U.S. and abroad, is dominant. And not by a little: Active management in the U.S. trounces passive by a ratio of 8-to-1 in dollar investments. 1 Expand that to include the entire world, and the ratio is closer to 15-to-1. If we include fixed income in our calculations, the ratio balloons to 60-to-1. 2
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-01/passive-investing-vs-active-investing-which-is-bigger
I think the graph shows, the longer you live the older you will get, but at the same time the longer you live the closer you are to death.
@LeoS
Maybe a graph showing expected life expectancy based on current age, instead of using years left to live based on current age might be better. Although relaying the same information it might be less disconcerting to people. It would show an upwards line instead of a downward line as people get older, which might be easier for people to digest :).
Great CNBC video “monologue” from a trader outlining his view of what has been wrong with the markets to cause these dislocations (lowest USA interest rates in history, huge rise in volatility etc). He blames it on the Fed and passive investors (ETF investors), both of whom have the effect of keeping stocks relentlessly rising when they should naturally be adjusting up and down. So that when we do have a shock (virus), the results are much more severe in the market. Of course the Fed is at it again, doing whatever it takes (e.g. 0% interest rates) to get stocks rising again, probably to all time highs as if the virus isn’t happening. https://youtu.be/hrBOmDD-cvA
Get well soon Barrister, I am missing your well considered comments.
U Vic should be proactive, and move to online classes and exams NOW
instead of waiting until CoVid 19 cases appearBC .
BC already has a ratio of 5.4 cases per million (27 cases/5 million population), which is higher than Canada (2.0), UK (4.7) or Japan(4.2). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Note there is nothing lost by doing this. The students still get the lectures and take the exams. It’s just online, with no risk of acquiring and spreading the virus. They are close to end of semester anyway. There is possibly community spread occurring now in Victoria, and any U Vic student infected is a big risk to infect older family members with dire consequences.
For example, here are some universities that have already done this. These are prestigious schools, Ivy League etc. and some are in states with lower rates of CoVid than B.C.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/09/813750481/more-than-20-colleges-cancel-in-person-classes-in-response-to-coronavirus
“ More than 20 U.S. colleges have canceled in-person classes due to the coronavirus, as of Monday morning. The colleges enroll a total of more than 200,000 students and include Columbia University, Princeton University, Rice University, Stanford University, Hofstra University and the University of Southern California, plus the University of Washington and a clutch of community colleges in Washington state.”
Best wishes that you get well soon Barrister
Barrister,
Sorry to hear that. I hope that you get well soon!
What models are you looking at that aren’t ‘all-in-one’? Is someone other than Sanden selling one?
+1
” So I thought I’d write a more upbeat article about when we’re all going to die.”
Love it!
Relevant article:
Downsizing out? Vast majority of older homeowners want to stay in their home. Only 14 per cent of Canadian baby boomers actively want to move, the remainder would like to live in their current family home as long as possible
https://www.westerninvestor.com/downsizing-out-vast-majority-of-older-homeowners-want-to-stay-in-their-home-1.24092174
Oil Slammed by Price War and Virus in Worst Loss Since 1991
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/oil-in-freefall-after-saudis-slash-prices-in-all-out-crude-war
Healing thoughts and best wishes to Barrister!
I thought you referenced the article to convey that it is only 15% difference so it is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. So maybe I misunderstood you lol. End of the day, if you are trying to make meaningful return in the market then you need to make good well timed concentrated bets. Charlie Munger compared investing to playing a two horse race with a 50/50 chance of winning but having a pay off that is 3-1. So having that 3-1 payoff is about picking the right stock at the right price.
The math and article are both about buying in today, not waiting for a return on investments that have already declined. Or maybe I am misunderstanding your point?
Totoro, that is over simplification of the math involved and also reality. A 50% decline in any asset will require an 100% return to break even. In your example a 15% decline will require an 18% return to break even. So you could be in a position to have negative return from your stock if you had bought at the peak compared to if you didn’t depending what the returns are (not factoring in NPV etc. because the common person don’t care about that), psychologically that is huge.
Get well soon Barrister 🙂 🙂
Maybe a bit higher than that today.
looks like I was a week early on my “game over” call, will try better next time lol. Now I am waiting to see what corporate bond spread does. Oh and for the real doom and gloomers, If this covid-19 decreases in severity during the summer it will get alot worse next winter without a vaccine (see history on spanish flu).
Also, I’m not far from you. If you need anything let me know by email: indigogototoro@gmail.com We are away until Saturday but back after that. Can help with medical/pharmaceutical stuff if need be as have family in the profession.
Very sorry to hear that Barrister. Sending healing thoughts and best wishes your way.
Barrister,
Get better soon.
Totoro: Thanks for asking, still here but rather seriously ill. Not sure that the mortality charts were a real emotional pick up. But your asking is really kind and has brightened my morning.
Be interesting to see what happens to returns after interest rates are factored in. My guess is that recent returns would be boosted a bit for the average homeowner.
I’m somewhat surprised that having made it to age 90, one can expect to still live another 5 years. After some thought, I guess that figure represents the average (in other words, likely affected by some anomalous exceptions living to 103 or whatever); in contrast, the median would likely be less, maybe only 3 or 4 years. The Stats Can table doesn’t give any additional insight.
Correct. Or rather almost correct. It is the growth of the annual average price which is the only series we have going back to 1960, so not a repeat sale index. Individual returns will vary, but broadly similar to overall price growth. It came from this article: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/04/23/mitigate-risk-by-holding/
Could you clarify the 20 year holding graph? For example, if you bought a house in 1982, then sold it in 2002, it’s saying you would have had an annualized return of 13% after factoring in buying/selling costs?
Hope Barrister is doing okay – hasn’t posted for a bit.
I take issue with your data, essentially saying, “The longer you live, the sooner you die”.
Nonsense. Statistically speaking, the more birthdays you have, the longer you live.
Even that I’m not sure about: despite all the proselytizing that we’re all going to die, my own experience tells me that I haven’t died – not even once, for a moment, since I was born. Ergo my belief in my perpetuity is never going to change, unless and until I have solid evidence to the contrary.