What could COVID-19 do to real estate?
Since it’s all Coronavirus all the time on the blog these days, here’s a closer look at how the situation may affect the real estate market.
The stock markets have been absolutely hammered in the last couple weeks and it’s not just stocks that are down, it’s nearly everything including resources, gold, and Bitcoin. Something to remember there is that although US stock markets dropped 50% during the Great Financial Crisis, a balanced portfolio dropped less, and anyone who kept their calm with a diversified portfolio and kept adding their usual contributions was made whole in just a couple years.
Performance $100k in a diversified portfolio with $250/month contributions (30% bonds, 70% equities, Source)
I will avoid giving investing advice (talk to your advisor) but a steady hand on the tiller has brought us through similar historic shocks in the past.
On to real estate. What will the increasingly strict shutdowns do to market activity in the coming weeks, months, and years? With the situation changing daily this is of course somewhat speculation, but it’s helpful to think of the impact in terms of three stages.
Thanks Gordon, I appreciate it.
Leo S, you were asking about what is happening among real estate appraisers? There have been a number of directives from lenders and the federal appraisal bodies as to relaxing regulations regarding interior inspections of properties. Real Estate Appraisers are recognized as essential workers supporting the important flow of funds and mortgage financing to Canadians. The Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank have approved the use of Full Appraisals without complete inspections where there are access limitations.
The guidelines are as follows:
1. Make an appointment and advise the contact when the appraiser will be visiting the property.
2.Notify the contact informing them the appraiser has arrived and will be walking around the exterior of the property
3. Leverage technology. Offer to video call the contact so they can give a tour of the rooms in the house, request photos and or video where appropriate.
4. Request information by interviewing the home owner and ask questions about the property that are required in the report
5. Validate the Details. confirm the information with assessment tools and local real estate boards.
6. Report the inspection details in a written 10 to 15 page report.
7. Refer to appraisal guidelines referencing CUSPAP/USPAP/OEAQ for guidance.
8. Request approval to change service types. if the appraiser cannot proceed on a full service they are to proceed with an alternative service type.
We’re all feeling the gravity of the situation. Children are being kept home from school, businesses are closing their doors, and Canadians are waking up each morning wondering what the day will bring. I would like to add my comments to many of the other posters to stay safe and help others to do the same as we join together to stop the spread of COVID 19.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/23/mar-23-market-update/
Focusing on seniors alone is foolish. Do you know that during the pandemic of 1918, hundreds of thousands gathered together in close quarters to celebrate the Victoria Day parade? The result, a week later, was a massive, vertical spike in cases and a complete overwhelming of hospital beds across the Province. Who knows how many that killed.
Best proof I’ve seen to date that social distancing works, and must be practiced.
I have to agree with the poster below
I am guessing at 30% unemployment your lifetime chances of being killed in a robery would be higher than dying from COVID19.
One of the top threads on Reddit Victoria is people shitting all over Campbell Construction for not shutting down all their sites…..I just don’t think people grasp what a depression could look like.
In my personal opinion we should go on lock down 2-3 weeks to stabailize the health crisis and then work on restarting the economy while keeping common sense social distancing in place. If things continue as is for months on end we will see economic hardship for a decade which will result in more pain than the virus itself.
Canadian Ice:
With all due respect, it is arguments such the one you make that are actually at best counterproductive and at worst dangerous because they foster inactivity.
Absolutely no one is suggesting that the only thing we do should be exclusively isolating the elderly and known vulnerable people. Nor will any known set of measures protect all old and vulnerable people. The main purpose of isolating the older people is to try to flatten the curve enough so that the whole hospital system is not not overwhelmed. Lets balance out the effect of some social isolation on old people as opposed to letting them slowly drown in their own liquids as their lungs fill up.
You are absolutely right that this plague effects people under 60 as well. We need to absolutely continue our efforts to maintain physical distancing and tracking and isolating this virus. Regardless of what we do some younger people are going to get seriously ill. Their chances of surviving with minimal harm will be greatly enhanced if the hospitals are not packed with seniors.
This virus is doubling every four days. Our known cases are at about 1500 (and this represents only a small fraction of people actually infected). Try doubling 1500 for a couple of months.
Let me do it for you. Two months is a bit more than 15 cycles of doubling.
1) 1500×2= 3000
2) 3000×2=6000
3 6000×2=12000
4) 12000×2= 24000
5) 24000×2=48000
6) 48000×2=96000
7) 96000×2=192,000
8) 192000×2= 382000
9) 382000×2=764000
10) 764,000×2= 1,580,000
11) 1580000×2= 3,116,000
12 3116000×2= 6,232000
13 6232000= 12,464,000
14 12.464,000×2=24,928,000
Cycle 15: good news it cannot double since we only have a population of about 37 million.
Meh, if you say so. I think the word “hysteria” is fair to use, but I couldn’t say how many doctors are hysterical as you are indicating. The general public appears to be though. I don’t think what I’m saying is a terribly controversial notion – in the event this issue persists for a longer time, a decision will need to be made. Both the disease and a dead economy cost lives. We cannot get around that. Part of the problem is, I don’t think any of us alive, including me, realize full well what the effects of 25% to 30% unemployment would actually be like. Further, I do not believe you can shut down huge portions of the economy, and then turn it all on again next quarter.
It’s almost criminally easy to say, “shut ‘er down” while we are still basking in the fruits of relative economic prosperity. While you have a job, money in the bank, a warm home to live in, food to eat and hope for the future. Unfortunately, when a huge portion of the population are jobless, hopeless, and hungry, and have been for a while, it’s another matter entirely.
In the throes of passion and panic, I get it’s not a popular message. That’s fine. But really, it’s not to say do nothing in the face of a pandemic, it’s more to say, policy makers should tread conscientiously because things are really are treading a more precarious balance than a lot of us appreciate. Now hopefully, reality will lie somewhere between those two extremes, and social distancing will continue to help. An outcome somewhere in the middle is something I continue to be hopeful for. 🙂
Genworth has dropped below $25
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/MIC-T/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/one-third-of-coronavirus-cases-may-show-no-symptom-scmp-reports
That’s an excellent point, totoro.
What’s really important to remember is that COVID is effecting all age groups. I read that 25% of the more severe cases are milleneals in one country. In some quarters people are asking about quarantining just those who are old and with known conditions. This is not a good idea.
A lot of people under 50 have conditions but don’t know it yet because their immune systems hold these conditions in check. Many of them will find out the hard way if they get COVID which will hasten the diagnosis. Many of them will die.
Quarantining old people while the rest of the world carried on would be particularly cruel. It only would ad to their social isolation which is a major determinate of health.
Quarantining old and already ill people while allowing COVID to go rampant outside their homes would also not protect them. Quarantining helps, but it is not a guarantee, if with unchecked COVID we would see a lot of leaks.
We should not isolate only those who are known to be vulnerable for the sake of the economy.
We might have higher standard to be admitted to hospital for Covid.
And do those that recover recover fully?
Coronavirus can cause severe pneumonia. There are all sorts of potential long-term consequences for those that recover, among other things:
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201506-1171ED
5% of people is 390 million.
Many would be doctors and nurses.
When every doctor is saying the same thing. People with actual experience dealing with this thing. Maybe it’s not hysteria. Maybe it’s you.
In the end the true measure is how many end up in hospital. Seems like it’s fairly consistent from other countries that about 10% of cases require ICU. So if there really are many more cases out there than reported, then we should start seeing them be admitted soon.
Let the economy take second place,. The runaway deaths we are seeing in Italy is not an option for us here. Protect the vulnerable. We should have just shut everything down last week the way China did. It’s harder, but if we are going to flatten the curve then let’s get it done.
The central banks created a wealth effect bubble by printing trillions of debt and its all deflating. They created the economic disaster by keeping interest rates at 0 and encouraging everyone including corporations to take on as much debt as they can.
At my work there are a number of people at home sick now, several with fevers and coughs – as well as their families. Most of us including me, are working from home, sick, but otherwise working without issue. None that I am aware of so far, are being tested. Not only can you probably not get the test, your point is exactly right – it doesn’t make any difference if it’s Covid or Influenza or something else. Treatment is the same.
From where I see it, covid infection stats are almost worthless in determining what the extent of it is, and so many of those infected will never know it anyways.
Aside, US futures are looking really, really ugly at this point. Tomorrow doesn’t look like a good day at all…but we’ll soon see.
One member of the US Fed is supposing 30% unemployment. I sure hope not. That would be a human tragedy, not to mention an unmitigated economic disaster. Over a flu-like illness, of all things. It’s not a hemorrhagic fever, not Smallpox, not a gamma ray burst from a stellar explosion – it’s an illness that in 80% of people, causes mild to moderate symptoms. Over 95% recover fully.
Covid doesn’t have the virulence to shut a society down – this is self imposed. You must understand, there is no free lunch with lives here. You’re either going to kill people on the front end (Covid) or kill people on the back end (effects of unemployment and social/health malaise). The latter doesn’t spark the same “fear” in people though, yet the outcome can actually be worse.
If 30% unemployment happened, I’d be certain that the “cure” is far worse than the disease, in that the short and long term effects of that kind of devastation will see untold numbers of suicides, bad health outcomes, domestic violence, hopelessness – and that could take decades to turn around. And this is all without even doing a full on lockdown, which some people, even on here, are vying for.
Sometimes there are terrible situations that happen that truly have no good options. The question is, which course of action and outcome is better for long term life and society?
Just heard (via email) from a neighbor that he feels sick and having difficulty breathing, ended up at RJ today. Doctors there think that a viral infection sets off his asthma. but said that there was little point to Covid test as the treatment would be to stay home and isolate whether he had Covid or another virus.
So I would not trust those reported infected numbers, they are just reference and true infected numbers could be much bigger.
“…to show what will likely happen if Trudeau Jr. doesn’t grow a set of balls like his dad had, but he’s Margaret’s boy so he’ll probably vacillate until it’s too late.”
Keep in mind that Leather Daddy Big Balls Trudeau did that pre Charter.
The graph of several countries that was posted by Introvert shows an average 33% daily growth in most countries, so I conservatively used 25% to show what will likely happen if Trudeau Jr. doesn’t grow a set of balls like his dad had, but he’s Margaret’s boy so he’ll probably vacillate until it’s too late.
Introverts Graph
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/16/what-could-covid-19-do-to-real-estate/comment-page-4/#comment-67446
Relative’s friend died in Germany. Not from the virus, from other causes. But no funeral allowed, his family not allowed to come from Austria.
Marko, you heard of any issues with inspectors / appraisers / lawyers to do their job so far?
Keep in mind that exponential growth at current rates can’t be projected out into the future. Social distancing measures will affect the rate of growth. Even italy has made some moderate progress at flattening the curve.
Could this crisis pop prices in Oak Bay over the next year? Want a decent 20k Sq ft lot under 1 million which seems to be impossible.
Exponential growth by the day seems to make some people complacent, so I thought I’d model B.C. by the week.
Today roughly 500 cases
Next weekend ~2000 cases
In two weeks ~11,000 cases
In three weeks ~54,000 cases
In four weeks ~250,000 cases
Looking at these potential numbers it seems clear that Trudeau will need to lockdown the country within the next few days otherwise the cascade effect will be virtually impossible to stop. Trudeau has a 10 day window of opportunity to take decisive action. Trudeau’s father Pierre took quick decisive action against the FLQ terrorists, but I wonder if Margaret’s son has the balls of his dad.
Non-sequitor.
My understanding is Millennials are too uninitiated, fickle and entitled to implement a Boomer-remover plan. Even if they were inclined, they’d be a week into the job, lose interest and then decide to work at another gig.
It’s those good-for-nothing Gen-Xers. They’ll see it through. Those B-tards are raised on nothing but Mortal Kombat, Satanism, Jerry Springer, Beavis and Butthead and other morally bereft, socially deranged influences. Go to hell Mr. Rogers, and take that shrill little Lady Elaine with you. He-Man was fun. Skeletor is awesome.
Gen-Xers for sure.
Canada is not a communist dictatorship country, but somehow information control is closer to China formula than other communist country such as Vietnam.
How Vietnam Learned From China’s Coronavirus Mistakes
Hanoi, a fellow communist state, realized quickly that a China-style cover-up would only make things worse. https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/how-vietnam-learned-from-chinas-coronavirus-mistakes/
Island doctor says health authority dropping the ball on COVID-19
the amount of information the public is being given is not only seriously lacking, it’s also often inaccurate, which is going to create serious problems… “They have the information, they’re just not sharing it, for God knows what reason,” the doctor says. “One of the reasons they’re citing is patient confidentiality – which to be honest is complete bullshit…
https://www.vicnews.com/news/island-doctor-says-health-authority-dropping-the-ball-on-covid-19/
The actuaries for the insurance companies and pension funds must be rubbing their hands in glee.
I think this whole virus situation is a dastardly plot by the millennials to take over all the houses from us older baby boomers in Oak Bay in Fairfield.
Seems like if you are over 60 you no longer have access to a ventilator in Italy. Dying from slow suffocation doesn’t seem like a great way to go.
https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856?fbclid=IwAR1h1oQQvgrKVFyzrEHY6iadbGhijQS8ZHZCh2F309YofSXaaD23b3ZWtOk
Was in the garden this evening and took up an over-the-fence chat with my neighbour.
After talking about sprinkler systems, she was telling me about her daughter, who has recently bought a house here and is self employed. She didn’t say what her daughter’s gig was, but business apparently dried up almost overnight and may have to sell her home. If so, it would be the first housing casualty I’ve heard of.
Mind you, I’m not sure how likely losing the home would be. If she could get one of those deferrals we keep hearing about, by the time things may have improved somewhat she may be able to make payments again.
Even if nothing bad ends up happening, what a nerve-racking position to be in. Just amazing how quickly dominos start falling once that dark little swan comes a swimmin’…
Croatian article commenting on how Croatians in Dublin have lost their jobs and can’t pay rent ->
https://direktno.hr/direkt/hrvati-dublinu-udaru-korona-virusa-ostaju-bez-posla-i-ne-mogu-placati-podstanarstvo-186083/
Google translation “Croats in Dublin hit by Crown Virus: They are out of work and unable to pay rent”
Of the 5 Croats I knew in Dublin 3 are back in Croatia.
Face it that unless we take extreme measures this will burn through most retirement and nursing homes sooner or later. The point is to try to make it later and more spread out so the health care system does not collapse.
Commenting on the figures, economist Ronan Lyons said… https://www.daft.ie/blog/the-covid-19-crisis-is-already-affecting-the-irish-rental-market/
I know there was 20,000 +/- Croatians (and Croatia is a super small country of 4 million) working in Dublin, may of who have gone back home so it’s not just Airbnb. A lot of their workforce would go back to respective EU countries of origin.
“64% rise in rental properties across #Dublin in midst of #Covid_19 crisis according to property website
@daftmedia as landlords start withdrawing their rentals from short-term listing sites like #Airbnb …”
https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1241325290565111808
Great point.
Taiwan has long been in a more or less permanent state of war readiness, and South Korea as well. They are organized to deal with external threats and considering where those threats are from I would bet that includes biological warfare. I would think that has a lot to do with their current success against COVID.
I would put off giving accolades to “most of Asia” until we find out what’s really going on.
I have been to both countries multiple times and have worked in China.
I think the Vietnamese people have a lot going for them but communism has held them back, just like in every other country ruled by that ideology.
This source says that VN is 64% rural versus 41% for China.
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/vietnam/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS
As I said I think the current low reported COVID stats in VN are due to a combination of social factors, low mobility and low urbanization, lack of resources to identify cases, and likely government misinformation. The communist regimes in VN (and China) have a long history of covering up bad news.
Doubt they’d be able to do it before the next election.
Awful…all this chaos must feel like the end of the world, or something like it, for residents over there. At least it’s not the middle of January, if that makes a difference.
Have you been to China and Vietnam?
I’m a Vietnamese Canadian that lived/been to both countries. VN is a poorer country than China at the moment but it rapid development is second to none nor it is as rural as China. Vietnamese health culture and education praise prevention over that of treatment. Yes, and like many I detest communism and far left leaning socialts as many on this board seem to praised, and VN is a communist country like Eastern EU that is a far cry from Russia, China, or North Korea, and if you ever work with a Vietnamese you would know we are industrious and does not react well to be told what to do. However, Vietnamese do believe we must sacrifice for the greater good of family and society. A humble believe that Canadians once proudly held, but that had withered and squandered away with the passing of the silence generation.
Here is a link to what John Oliver from Last Week Tonight has to say about how VN deal with COVID-19, https://youtu.be/c09m5f7Gnic?t=373
IMO it is not communism nor dictatorship that curb the spread among many other excuses, but what seems to work so far is working together for the greater good of family and society as seen in countries that apply these notions.
PS. My wife is a Vietnamese pediatric physician who for the last 6 years volunteered and curently works as a health care assistant at the Royal Jubilee and Victoria General hospitals, and she regularly reminded me that prevention is better than the cure.
Marko: sorry to hear about Zagreb; what a tragedy.
U.S. Senator Rand Paul, of all people, is the first U.S. senator to test positive for covid-19. He was the only senator to vote against covid-19 funding earlier this month.
He is very fortunate to be asymptomatic, but I hope it gets him to stop blocking spending for this or other healthcare emergencies.
The US markets may not be happy with the news.
https://www.axios.com/rand-paul-coronavirus-847b3df1-92bc-4ee6-833b-952d16f3ee3f.html
Here’s a disturbing thought. Could you imagine if Covid-19 hit the U.S Supreme court and took out several left-leaning (and right-leaning) judges, giving Trump the ability to fill it with almost exclusively the extreme right? I know the court already is balanced slightly to the right, but if that were to happen, many freedoms currently taken for granted would surely be jeopardized, for many years.
You cannot keep the country in lockdown for long. But you can adjust the strain on the hospital systems by focusing self quarentines on people over 60. Of the covid cases that require hospitaliation well over half are over 60. If you can flatten the curve for the over sixty crowd then you are well on the way to saving your medical system without killing the economy.
Losing some productivity from the 60 to 65 crowd is manageable closing down the economy at this point is questionable.
Our individualism will be the death of us in this situation unfortunately. Sorry to hear about Zagreb Marko, last thing they needed.
Things could always be worse….large earthquake in Zagreb this morning. Hospital where my cousin works is seriously damaged and lots of friends with older condos that are write-offs. State of panic and shock as Zagreb is under lockdown due to COVID19.
After seeing all the pictures from friends’ placed with ceilings that fell in, etc., not sure I would buy anything other than steel and concrete again. Zero damage/cracks in my place and 80 year old building next door deemed unsafe to enter anymore.
A New York Doctor’s Coronavirus Warning: The Sky Is Falling
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/opinion/coronavirus-doctor-new-york.html
So Germany has now banned gatherings of more than 2 people, nationwide. At some point, I do wonder how far Canada is behind.
I get the logic in doing this during the initial outbreak phase, but eventually we’re going to run into other problems. People are so focused on this bug I do question whether society can see anything else at all.
Firstly, and what many people don’t realize, is that shutting down the economy for a length of time might actually cost more lives than it saves. For every incremental rise in unemployment (at least in the west) there is a corresponding rise in deaths and risk of early death. Poor economic performance (ie unemployment) is strongly associated with more deleterious health and wellness outcomes, both physical and mental. Personally, I think shutting the economy down risks making the cure worse than the disease. Eventually, we’re going to have to accept that people are going to die, unless and until a vaccine comes. The economic problems at the moment aren’t severe enough for most people to understand this point yet, but if we keep pushing it, it will become painfully obvious.
Secondly, people will get tired of the fear. After being “under the gun” so to speak for a while, people start getting more determined and fatalistic. In other words, they wind up refusing to live in fear and let whatever the situation is railroad their life and define their existence – even if that attitude directly causes their death. That is a indelible human characteristic, and you can’t scrub it out of people for long. For anyone who has ever studied large scale human conflicts (especially WW2) will see this behaviour in action over and over again. Telling folks that they have to lock themselves in their homes until further notice will work temporarily as long as the fear is in place, but then…
I was in Taiwan for a week last year visiting friends and their health care system is substantially better than it is here.
Not to mention discipline and organization in general is miles ahead of here.
Does not surprise me they’ve been successful so far.
Maybe, but I wouldn’t say the same about Taiwan and they have been remarkably successful, like most of Asia.
I think the government is hinting at much stricter measures than trying to convince Canadian residents to self-isolate. When the Federal Health Minister states publicly that our civil liberties are in jeopardy, I read that as a subtle hint that a countrywide lockdown is planned, and soon, before the exponential growth overwhelms the hospitals.
Some things to keep in mind about Vietnam:
Stay safe everyone and keep social distancing. Although I suspect that a significant percentage of the population is already infected. The truth is we do not have a clue how many people are infected. Call in with symptoms and you are told to stay home(more often than not they forget to tell you that the whole family should stay home). If you are close to deaths doorstep than come into the hospital and we will test you.
At this point I suspect that the only thing that will flatten the curve for hospitals is to convince anyone over 60 to self isolate.
As a first world country we have freedom to do what ever we want, where politic chatters trump over actions and productivity.
A third world country, Vietnam reaction to CoVID-19: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Vietnam
December 2019 – prepared for the epidemic as early as the very first case in China emerged.
24 January – first 2 positive cases, activation of the Emergency Epidemic Prevention Centre, and cancellation of all flights from and to Wuhan.
7 February – successfully cultured and isolated the virus in the lab. This is one of the few countries able to do this, aside from Singapore, Australia, Japan and China.
14 February – entire village of over 10,000 people are quarantined for 20 days.
21 March – all travelers enter the country are mandatory quarantined for 14 days at military facilities.
Canada as a developed country, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Canada
15 January, activated its Emergency Operations Centre.
17 – added health screening question to the electronic kiosks for passengers arriving from central China.
25 January – first presumptive case, travel advisory against non-essential travel to China and avoid all travel to Hubei.
14 March – recommended against international travel.
Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
Last updated: March 22, 2020, 06:30 GMT
Vietnam: 94 cases, 0 death, 17 recovered, 1/1,000,000 cases.
Canada: 1,328 cases, 19 death, 14 recovered, 35/1,000,000 cases.
We did drop the ball.
Particularly on the efficacy of masks preventing people from spreading viruses to others and testing – even if it is daily temperature testing.
The message we got was “masks don’t work and they are dangerous because people use them wrong”. And that is true in terms of minimal protection from getting covid virus particles passing through (which is less common), but they stop you from touching your face, and this is just not true for the reverse – testing shows masks do stop sick people from transmitting in a worthwhile way. If everyone wears a mask like in Taiwan everyone benefits.
And they have to stick with that now I guess because there are no masks and our front line workers need them – which I totally agree with. Plus we are all sold out of thermometers.
I really recommend moving to cloth masks to stop transmission from the symptom less to others even though they are less effective than surgical masks- and I would think this is particularly so for people like grocery store workers who are not going to qualify for PPE/D even when available again and who have trouble maintaining social distance.
https://www.deaconess.com/How-to-make-a-Face-Mask
Great article on Taiwan’s response vs Canada. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/taiwan-covid-19-lessons-1.5505031
We really dropped the ball here. Not enough tests, not enough supplies, no temperature screenings, no mandated quarantines. Maybe we can do it without all that, but so far it’s not looking great.
The countries that responded properly to this will benefit massively economically in the coming months while the rest will suffer.
Us too. Keep them safe. Life has really changed in a month.
You forgot terrible pollution.
Sad but we cancelled our visit to see my parents. Switched the plan from flying to driving to the interior a while back, and we’ve been taking extreme precautions for a couple weeks, but in the end it’s just not a justifiable decision anymore despite minimal risk.
Daughter had a facetime playdate with her friend today.
Kids are playing “lockdown” in the Ikea tent in the living room.
Strange times.
Over 800 dead today in Italy alone and I suspect that we are only a few weeks behind them although I pray that I am wrong.
Possibly but we don’t have a huge glut of inventory. I mentioned months before COVID19 that there were no condo excavations downtown taking place. Throw in COVID19 and doubt we will have any pre-sale launches this year which means we will literally have two to three years of no new product being completed. All the condo cranes will be down by end of this year and at least 2 years before one is put back up when you factor in pre-sales + time to excavate.
As long as the rental market doesn’t crap out a lot of owners will weather the rough patch by renting.
I just said no to both for next week and if they are interested, I’ll re-assess in two weeks. If they aren’t repeat clients who cares, and I know repeat clients will wait for me anyway. Of course, there are exceptions that make sense. Today I listed a 8 lot subdivision….buyers can just go walk the land and DocuSign offers.
A lot of REALTORS® are panicking but I don’t understand what the big deal is. I’ve had 7 listings delayed and three are really nice homes between $1.2 and $1.4 million that I helped those three clients buy in the last 10 years. If I don’t sell them now, I’ll sell them in 2, 3, 6, or 12 months.
I still have buyers wanting to make subject to sale offers…..it is like they don’t realize that if they find some to accept their subject to sale offer they still have to sell their place, which will be near impossible in the next little while.
But all in all just disappointed in society in general. Pretty much everyone that wants to view or sell right now is purely elective. Like they want to move from Saanich to Oak Bay. If it isn’t urgent why would you even think about it. I don’t think people here take seriously what is going on in Europe.
Maybe it’s the exchange rate now but I just checked for next weekend and it’s $35-50.
So what’s your approach to those listings?
I guess, be thankful you’re getting calls?
Wondering what your perspective is on condos downtown right now. On the insurance thing, I’ve had trouble filtering through what is real and what isn’t. No doubt there are plenty of horror stories, but I do wonder how widespread it is.
But that’s something to be considered in conjunction with the prices. While nothing is cheap at the moment, I’ve found some of the asking prices of downtown condos are simply unbelievable – many of these units are asking for more money for 500sq feet than I paid for my entire property. I get some people want to live downtown, but I just don’t see how so many people can want to pay so much money to live so close to constant noise, chaos and vagabonds. To me, I find it absolutely awful to be down there.
I’ve thought for a while that condos were going to be the achilles heel in the market and it just seems that things are converging at the moment.
What do you think…Do you think a correction is ahead for condos? If not, why not?
Two people emailed me today wanting to list their properties in next week…..is no one watching the news???
There is two at the Jubilee, none at the general.
The protocol for intubation is very very low. If you are on 6L of oxygen nasal prongs they are intubating you.
Charlie: do you know how many ICU cases we have on the island? Or how many do you know of?
There are Covid19 ICU cases here on the island.
Steve i just checked airbnb and don’t see anything cheaper than $80 – even midweek – where are you seeing this?
There are 7 new cases on the island, brings total to 37. As percentage admitted to hospital is about 6.x% of total infected in BC, we probably have just 2 or 3 infected cases in hospital, likely and hopefully none in ICU now on the island.
I live in Sequim and usually spend about $110-120 per night in an air bnb for Victoria. Seeing them now for $30 a night. We going to see these moved over to the rental units if this drags on?
—- Quarantine— Self-isolate —- Stay Home—-
So confusing… what could it possibly mean…
I know of seven people who have just returned from trips outside of Canada, mostly returning from the USA.
None of those people are properly staying at home as required by directives from the Federal Government.
Reminds me of this quote:
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
George Carlin
https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/health-safety/travel-health-notices/221
Official Rules:
“Self-isolate means:
stay home and keep your distance from others”
LeoS
How many new cases on the Island? How many in ICU on the Island?
That was two weeks ago when there were no restrictions against such gatherings. Sure you can criticize it in hindsight, but I don’t see how it’s relevant going forward.
One isolated arrest for stupidity isn’t going to stop the spread when you have medical and dental professionals flagrantly ignored the situation, such as the 15,000 attendees at the Vancouver dental convention and physicians that attended the Edmonton curling bonspiel.
74 new cases
1 new death
+2 in ICU
Salons and similar ordered closed.
Number of tests done will be updated more regularly than once a week starting next week
They arrested someone in Quebec for violating quarantine but she had actually tested positive.
Well, I’m going to have a bit of a cry, put my big girl panties on, and get to work sewing some masks and reaching out to everyone I can to see what social pressure I can leverage. We are all in this together, from at least six feet apart.
I’m sorry Barrister, but as you know that it is more important to play politics platitude than your job in Canadian culture with out accountability.
Campbell River doctor says health authority dropping the ball on COVID-19: https://www.campbellrivermirror.com/news/campbell-river-doctor-says-health-authority-dropping-the-ball-on-covid-19/
“officials are citing as a reason not to give out information, according to the doctor, is that they don’t want to cause mass hysteria within the community, or panic, but misinformation is absolutely going to be worse.”
Yes, and even if you see somebody flagrantly violating the two week home isolation requirement, there’s nothing anyone can do about it, because our fed govt decided that there shouldn’t be any penalties possible for violators.
Rondo, that article was one of the ones that made me realize we need suppression now, not gentle moves to the next level as things worsen.
Totoro: This monster is out of the cage already. We squandered precious weeks where we could have flattened the curve.
Flights are still coming in every day from Europe and nobody is quarantined upon arrival; they are not checked for a simple temperature before boarding. Pray like hell that you dont get seriously ill with anything because I am guessing that in a couple of weeks or less the hospitals will be overwhelmed.
Not housing related but so much Covid talk on here… I thought I’d share what I think is the most important article on the subject here for anyone interested. Numbers based approach to discussing mitigation versus suppression methods.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Stay healthy, everyone 🙂
save-on-food has delivery service for a long time, lots pharmacies do that, too. Actually some pet food stores also started delivery services. So unless you want to go stores, between online and store deliveries, you can get most things send to your door.
That is good, but what we are doing is not going to work well imo. I agree with this author unfortunately – unless we miraculously get some excellent new treatment drugs.
https://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-getting-angry.html?spref=tw&fbclid=IwAR11Km2QOj5uOT8NH0JUut3iuXwcYYriKSmfwIHK4kjNnKWYZO_dtFqmgnI
From Tuesday:
Dix noted B.C. received a significant number of swabs to test for the virus Tuesday. In addition, the B.C. Centre for Disease Control has repurposed swabs used for sexually transmitted infections for COVID-19 testing.
https://www.timescolonist.com/covid-19/province-declares-public-health-emergency-bars-and-clubs-ordered-to-close-1.24100182
I didn’t sleep well last night. I know we need widespread testing and segregated quarantine in or order to knock our numbers down fast. And instead, we are running out of testing swabs. Dr. Henry may be a calm presence, but I do not believe the advice we have received is proactive enough. We are doing what Italy did, not what Korea or the rest of Asia has done.
I noticed Thriftys has online ordering and home delivery. Hopefully most of the grocery stores have that too now.
World o meter site for coronavirus now has a page for Canada. Regular and logarithmic graph of total Canada cases are unfortunately exponential so far. BC is worse than Canada average. Need to flatten the curve.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/
“ We do not have good data on what the stock market did during the 1918 flu”
Wut?
DJIA
A brilliant article
https://unherd.com/2020/03/covid-19-has-exposed-our-financial-fragility/
Back of the envelope math here. In BC there are apparently 1,272 ventilators. Maybe half are available at any given time?
So if 10% of infected require hospitalization, say half need a ventilator when they get there, then perhaps our system can handle (1272/2) / (0.05) = ~12,700 active cases at any given time assuming they were distributed equally to ventilator locations?
Thoughts on that wild ass guess? How many active cases can we handle?
Marko, have health services called on you yet?
When the market locks up there’s a greater percentage of those around. Hard to tell exactly at what level of sales the desperation sets in. Hopefully the government programs can get people through the dip so people aren’t selling due to coronavirus, but some people will have to sell just for regular non-virus reasons as they always do.
It is C for us. In a few months my in-laws are going to retire and they can help us with raising our girls. So in that case we will be looking for a bigger place, and possibly buy. We have a considerable amount of cash so no problem there, also good jobs. For us prices in Victoria were just ridiculous. Please no lecture about the great weather or other factors here. I have had the opportunity to live in great cities because of my expertise, finally my job brought us here and we love Victoria, don’t get me wrong.
100% agree, thankfully I am also a respiratory therapist…..quite possibly the most essential professional as doctors and nurses are very poorly trained on ventilators in North America. Once you can breath I can help you buy a house 🙂
From LA times: L.A. County gives up on containing coronavirus, tells doctors to skip testing of some patients :
“Los Angeles County health officials advised doctors to give up on testing patients in the hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak, instructing them to test patients only if a positive result could change how they would be treated.
The guidance, sent by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health to doctors on Thursday, was prompted by a crush of patients and shortage of tests, and could make it difficult to ever know precisely how many people in L.A. County contracted the virus.”
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing
From all these lock down orders we are starting to get an idea of who are essential workers in our society.
Grocery store worker = essential
Real estate agent = non-essenetial
🙂
Metro Vancouver detached home prices falling sharply in March:
https://openhousing.ca/2020/03/19/metro-vancouver-detached-home-prices-falling-sharply-in-march/
I was trying to explain this to realtors like a week ago. Open houses are not effective in the first place so why on earth would you ever run one given the situation.
Market coasting downward in an orderly fashion as more buyers hit pause.
All open houses shutting down.
“Always look on the bright side of life”
The harder it is to borrow, the more people with large down payments will rule the market.
I bought my first house with 40% down and I didn’t have any trouble borrowing the rest.
Yes, this may be the case. The trick will be qualifying for a mortgage, with tightened bank lending standards. But if you do, there may be a bargain waiting. Of course when the virus outbreak is stopped (vaccine) or good treatments become available, prices may start up again.
“It’s frustrating to see people seeking mortgage deferrals immediately, many not even in need of it. I’m in a financial group on Facebook where an advisor was suggesting deferring for 6 months and then building your savings instead.”
If you read Ron Butlers twitter feed (@ronmortgageguy) he clarifies some of the confusion surrounding the eligibility for the mortgage deferral. He says the borrower must have a profound need to qualify for the program. To skip payments you have to prove unemployment, diminished assets, and no cash. If you lose your job and have a ton of cash you would have to wait until that cash is more depleted.
It could work. But remember, house prices are a function of what banks are willing to lend. Taking advantage of a large reduction in pricing will depend on finding a lender willing to lend to you. I’m guessing that most people under 35 don’t realize this little bit – it’s not like houses just get cheaper because the sellers become more desperate to sell. The buyers can’t get the money.
But if you can, it might not be a bad idea. With all the liquidity they are beginning to toss back into the financial system (and make no mistake, there will be a lot more coming), a recovery could be strongly in favor of hard assets including real estate. We got to this point largely due to manipulation by central banks, and they don’t appear to be interested in dropping this interventionist paradigm. If anything, this will embolden that approach to continue until something fundamentally resets. So who knows, with that in the mixture.
In other words, the short term and even medium term is probably bearish, but I think a little further out could be a different story.
We have gone from 22 cases on the Island to 30 in just one day. Since we have no way of knowing how many actually are infected the more important number might be the number in ICU and the total in hospital beds.
I drove through downtown today and was pleased to see almost no people gathering on the streets.
“And yes, I know that there have been a few recent sales at above asking price. I’m not asking about that. I’m curious about what it would ge take to make YOU buy if you were otherwise ready.”
I’m in a similar situation to you. Large down-payment on hand, stable employment etc. I believe that we’re entering a deep recession period, if not a depression. Even if this pandemic is short and painful, the repercussions will be felt for months if not years. Canadian households and corporations were already historically tapped out due to the obscenely low interest rates and this has pushed us over the edge. We are seeing the contraction of credit, which is typical of the end of a credit cycle and this is a self-perpetuating cascade that will play itself out. I plan to wait at least 6-12 months to see where we’re at, and at that point I would hope/expect that prices would be down significantly.
RE doesn’t move at the speed of an equities market, it moves at the speed of a RE market.
I don’t think to date, anything has moved to an extent to expect discounts. If you were asking this 3 months from now, and the economy is still frozen, I would try perhaps 5 to 10% less than 3 months ago. Even that would be very ambitious – you’d have to find the right seller (desperate) for that. 6 months in, and I would say 10% for sure – maybe even try 15% or so.
I’m curious to see what the listing continues to do – because if I were selling and hadn’t gotten sick yet, I think I’d pull the property and wait it out.
For anybody interested in answering: if you were in a financial position that allowed you to buy a property right now (e.g. very secure employment, sufficiently sized pre-approved mortgage, etc), amidst the current madness what price point would it take for you to buy a place, compared to recent price trends?
A.” Same as recent price point. I don’t care or don’t believe in any covid-19 real estate repercussions in coming months.”
B. “5%-10% discount from what I would have expected to pay a month ago.”
C. “More than 10% discount”
D. “Forget it. I wouldn’t buy for at least a few months and see what happens”
With all due respect, I’m not interested in hearing “If it’s the right place, you can afford it, and will stay there 10+ years just go ahead and buy something, price doesn’t matter”. Nor do I care about “every property is different”, and that other details like days on market for you answer, because I’m talking about general trends like we look at on this site.
And yes, I know that there have been a few recent sales at above asking price. I’m not asking about that. I’m curious about what it would ge take to make YOU buy if you were otherwise ready.
Looks like we could be okay with local supply of hand sanitizer, just they need more “aloe vera gel” to make more.
From TC: https://www.timescolonist.com/covid-19/island-distillers-brew-up-sanitizer-to-fill-void-1.24102229
“The lack of hand sanitizer on store shelves, in hospitals and for first responders during the COVID-19 outbreak has spurred a pair of distillers on Vancouver Island to start producing it.
Victoria Distillers and Courtenay’s Wayward Distillery have both been producing hand sanitizer this week, handing it out at no cost to first responders and community organizations that need it.”
Leo, you’re an amazing guy! Well done.
https://www.ft.com/content/e015e096-6532-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
Anyone actually buying a house in this market….
retail auto sales are down 33% in a week in the US
unemployment claims rose from 27k to 500K in Canada this week
This is a very sobering time. My heart goes out to all the people in Victoria who has lost their job. Government needs to lower the 700 hours for unemployment insurance and needs to get money out to people asap if they do not qualify.
Funny how people’s priorities change quickly to simply trying to stay healthy and not get sick. Basically survival mode. Really makes you think about life and what is important.
Stay safe everyone…..and keep others safe.
Kind of a cruel irony, isn’t it. Most people that are hiding out right now in panic are still going to get it, and all that gratuitous analysis on the horrible things that might (ie, probably won’t) happen to them will probably make the experience of becoming ill that much worse for them. The fact remains that the vast majority of people experiencing symptoms experience only mild and occasionally moderate ones.
In some ways this virus is a good thing, in that it’s an opportunity to critically assess our pandemic response infrastructure and processes in a way we’d never do unless we were in such a situation. Next time if something got out that was actually fundamentally threatening to a society, we might be better prepared to respond in a way that can save more lives.
Good news on the vaccine front, apparently. Soon we can go back to caring about things that don’t really matter. 🙂
90% of the global population would be happy to live in a two bedroom condo in one of the best cities in one of the best countries in the world and we know the environment is a global matter.
I maintain that that would be a nightmare and refute that that’s the only way to live an eco-friendly lifestyle. Concrete condos are far, far from a sensible baseline footprint, even if they’re small. I work from home and have for 8 years so I don’t drive, and the place I bought is a small condo, not that that is anyone’s beeswax.
When it comes to managing your own stock investments, you have every opportunity to not prop up an industry that is causing global environmental devastation. Go ahead and continue thinking your choices are meaningless if you like. I’m just here to point out that that’s willful ignorance.
I wish those impacted the best of luck. What a terrible time.
The market is defined by the margins. Less people will be able to buy but some people will still have to try and sell.
Even when this passes its not like all those companies will hire everyone back right away. There will be a lag.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/canada-sees-500-000-employment-insurance-applications-this-week?srnd=premium-canada
If it’s true, as is being reported, that:
1. new cases of COVID-19 are growing by 40% per day, and
2. 80+% are asymptomatic,
then this pandemic will peak in 5 weeks and be over in 8 weeks. Simple math.
Of course there will be lingering cases as people leave their bunkers and become the last people to get sick.
I’ll repeat again. It is mind boggling that we don’t have enough health care professionals and equipment, but we have a department at BC Housing administering the owner building exam and there is ZERO evidence to support such an exam. There must be like another 100 idiotic programs like that cross BC employing thousands of people. I am hoping if nothing the pandemic gets some priorities straight.
Josh….read your comments over the last two years where I’ve suggested condos and what you’ve replied with….at one point you described living in a two-bedroom condo with a roommate as a “nightmare.” So you aren’t prepared to do anything to help the environment like living in a smaller space or driving an electric car, but you point out that my meaningless retail investment as immoral? (Leo S also pointed out retail investments are meaningless).
I would prefer if people living in SFHs, driving ICE cars, and planning on having multiple kids would just mind their own business and not attempt to lecture me pertaining to envirommental issues. I’ve been driving an electric car for 5 years and last time I checked I am not lecturing people on saving the environvement.
It’s early yet, but it seems a cure for coronavirus has been found, tested peer reviewed using existing drugs.
Full peer reviewed study has been released by Didier Raoult MD, PhD https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view?usp=sharing.
After 6 days 100% of patients treated with HCQ + Azithromycin were virologically cured
p-value <.0001
If this all pans out this may be ending faster than we expect.
Here is the twitter thread for those interested.
https://twitter.com/RiganoESQ/status/1240273631604809728
Going to Costco. If anyone needs something and can’t go out text me at 250-885-6252
In the US in areas where they are running out of masks, doctors and nurses are asking for cloth masks to be made and donated. Probably time for civilians to consider making and wearing cloth masks for their trips to grocery stores and starting to make them for donation.
If you have a sewing machine you can do this. Not as good as surgical masks, but science says better than nothing. I’m going to start this weekend and make them for family and essential service workers and I have zero skills in this area. I suggest all essential service workers who want them be offered at least two as they need to be washed after each shift:
Here is the instructable and the research on effectiveness is linked at the end:
https://www.instructables.com/id/DIY-Cloth-Face-Mask/?fbclid=IwAR2At84JqvZpHef95AezKLfr30Q9PsJcqb1EzjDiibaZFt3PbBUjnCHnfC8
Here are the VIHA contacts for PPD donations: Andrea Boardmen (andrea.boardman@viha.ca) and Ian Olsen (ian.olson@viha.ca)
Nail salons are also a good source of masks and gloves. If you know someone pass it on.
This is some top notch whataboutism, good job.
Which would be precisely the point.
Please sign this petition started by more than 60 doctors. https://www.change.org/p/justin-trudeau-protect-our-front-line-health-care-workers-against-covid-19?source_location=discover_feed
Call on individuals to donate sealed items that they have stockpiled to hospitals and clinics, and educate them about scarcity;
Research how we can reuse existing stock more safely in the face of COVID-19 with bleach, UV light, or other techniques, and the possibility of reusable cloth masks or gowns;
Liberate any stockpiled PPE from the SARS epidemic. Many of us would be willing to sign waivers and use expired PPE rather than nothing;
Buy any possible stock from China and other countries;
Expand COVID-19 testing capabilities and treatment facilities;
Repurpose distilleries to manufacture hand sanitizer; and
Manufacture chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil), and anti-virals that could potentially treat COVID-19 patients but are currently backordered and unavailable.
In the meantime, it would help our efforts greatly if you legislated every individual to self-isolate.
Likely many people will take the deferral and just spend the money. IMHO the banks have every reason to be strict with deferrals.
As I said hearing and overhearing people taking advantage of the situation on various fronts.
It’s frustrating to see people seeking mortgage deferrals immediately, many not even in need of it. I’m in a financial group on Facebook where an advisor was suggesting deferring for 6 months and then building your savings instead.
There are people that just lost their jobs or whose tenants lost their jobs who need their very next payment addressed. These “savvy investors” are loading up the phone lines for the banks when people who need help now need to get through. I hope this behaviour stops.
Those people that got prime -1% mortgages are going to have ridiculously low rates especially if they cut more. Near 1% mortgage?
Big banks up to their usual tricks, making the well publicized mortgage deferrals very hard to get
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-rbc-bmo-td-mortgage-credit-coronavirus-covid19-1.5503478
Good picture for “Persistence of CoronaVirus on Surfaces”
https://www.facebook.com/uohyd/photos/pb.170140271052.-2207520000../10156895588751053/?type=3&theater
FYI: Interesting reading
“Justin Trudeau: Working from home just like the rest of us” (:thumbsup:)
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/justin-trudeau-works-from-home-coronavirus-137898
I’m sorry I didn’t narrow the search to BC or Victoria, however 2.49% at 5 year fixed is a great rate.
Today’s top headlines about the virus:
Coronavirus Cases in US Spike 40% in One Day
Vaping could make you more vulnerable to COVID-19, scientists warn.
Read between the lines, there is a lot of information in those three headlines.
Which one actually has a benefit to the world at large?
Unless they’re issuing new stock, the price of the stock itself means very little.
In fact, if it were me owning the company, I’d wish that everyone sold the stock.
Say you’re an oil company in alberta, and oil is $60 a barrel. Absolutely everyone divests of your stock. It’s worth pennies.
You as a company are making plenty of money, so buy the stock back at pennies and take the company private.
The only source I have for the possible mutation is a message from a family doctor in Victoria (verified) sent to the Penny Farthing. There is credible data from Italy and the USA stating hospitalization rates are higher for young people than Wuhan. I posted them before and you can google it. Here is one article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html
I think there is enough floating around there from verified sources to at least be a bit more cautious when generalizing Wuhan’s stats.
We can make fossil fuels obsolete much sooner also by approaching it from the political side.
And maybe we should factor in clean-up costs in our math about what’s economical and acceptable:
Cleaning up Alberta’s oilpatch could cost $260 billion, internal documents warn
https://globalnews.ca/news/4617664/cleaning-up-albertas-oilpatch-could-cost-260-billion-regulatory-documents-warn/
The government has collected a total security of $1.6B from fossil fuel companies against an estimated liability of $58-260B.
Do you have references to these studies? I have read mutation are expected and normal for RNA viruses.
See: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/07/health/coronavirus-mutations-analysis/index.html
I don’t disagree, but divesting or not doesn’t make any difference, it’s just about the message being sent. If you want to cut subsidies then you have to approach it from the political side.
Absolutely agreed, but it seems that the goods may not be in the garage for a situation as potentially exponential as this and the rest of the world is competing for the same supplies now.
I think there have also been reports of supplies of masks running out since January because of panic buying by healthy people in BC. So that may be contributing to them not being able to ramp up properly.
Ontario had a stockpile of 55 million masks that expired, because bureaucrats had a budget to store them but not to distribute them to keep their stockpile fresh.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6651402/ontario-coronavirus-masks-medical-supplies-expired/
That will probably take too long, from a climate change perspective. And remember, it’s not like it’s a level playing field and everything is fair and square: the fossil fuel industry receives vast subsidies and lobbies usually very successfully to water-down, delay, control, or block climate-motivated policy in order to keep the party going as long as possible.
No, IMO, we can’t wait for clean tech to make fossil fuels economically obsolete. We have to behead the monster. Not only are we not beheading it, we are still helping it prosper.
Still I hope this a wake up call not to treat the health care system like Starbucks where everything relies on just in time delivery. Whether it’s for the next pandemic or the big earthquake there should be stockpiles of this extremely cheap equipment.
We don’t build a destroyer when we need one, we build it ahead of time
They are not out. Doctors are anticipating what happens next and are proactively asking for donations which VIHA is picking up. This is not a public appeal from VIHA, but from doctors and health care workers. My guess is that there are not enough supplies for what could happen next. I checked and it came from a local family doctor.
Really begs the question why the health authority is so poorly equipped that they are out of PPE before anything happened at all here. What the heck is going on? This stuff is dirt cheap why don’t they have a stockpile?
that should be “if you know a vet or a dentist”. Doctors are going to need their PPDs.
Well, this brings it home.
I just received a request from a family doctor in my community group for help with personal protective equipment donations. VIHA needs hand sanitizer (high priority), surgical masks (high priority), safety glasses, face shields, gloves – rubber, latex, Viton & Tychem TK, gowns, aprons, full body suits and boots, and antiseptic wipes. If you know a doctor or a dentist or someone with a private stockpile, pass it on. If you contact VIHA they will arrange for pick up.
The same doctor also wrote last week asking the Penny Farthing to cancel St. Pats plans, stating, recent evidence from the US shows that the virus may have mutated, causing more serious symptoms in younger adults.
And yes, I can verify she is a real practicing doctor here in Victoria.
I think if we are using hospitalizations vs. widespread testing data as the measure we are not in control.
Yeah I tend to favour the direct action as well. Hard to tell whether retail investors can have any impact on oil companies but all the evidence I’ve read says no. If retail investors all purchase ESG funds that are fossil-free, then hedge funds will simply benefit from the now undervalued fossil stocks. See this good article in the New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/does-divestment-work
I tend to agree with divestment for public sector funds, but more because of the message than the impact.
What will kill the fossil fuel companies is technology making their products obsolete, and then the money for exploration and extraction drying up because there’s no future. Trying to dry out the money without the technology coming first doesn’t work.
Not sure I agree……
What’s better for society.
I only buy electric cars but I invest in an ICE only car company.
Or I only buy ICE cars but I invest in Tesla.
Too early to tell I think. Last I heard it takes about 5 days to see if the previous measures have had an effect. Just have to watch the cases I guess.
Currently 6% of confirmed cases are hospitalised. No idea how much hospital capacity we have spare right now.
That is an interesting thought. Are we in control at this point?
I see. But what’s easier to do, not use anything that contains plastic or not directly invest in fossil fuel stocks?
I think that is the point he was trying to make. You can invest in industries and simultaneously understand the harm they are doing.
Oh god, not that “if you use it, you can’t criticize it” bullshit.
People can use stuff and simultaneously understand the harm that it’s doing — and want things to change.
I think we should keep in mind that we are soon going to exceed the total cases in Japan. For perspective, Canada is approximately 9,984,670 sq km (albeit most living close to the border), while Japan is approximately 377,915 sq km and much lower on the personal space. The population of Canada is ~35.6 million people vs. 126.8 million in Japan.
We are not handling this all that great from a public health perspective. Better than the US for sure, but that should not be our benchmark.
Depends on how the numbers go I guess. If we get a big jump in cases and the health care system becomes overwhelmed then sure. But if it remains manageable then there’s no reason for it.
Seems there is zero chance to eradicate this, so the optimal path seems to be to infect a number that is just below the health care capacity. I know that can’t be controlled, but it’s also true that the economy can’t stay in lockdown forever or it will cause much worse pain than the virus.
No, but ordering social distance rather than having a voluntary compliance is better imo.
“I think ordering people to stay in their homes would be a very bad idea”
Agreed. Let’s not forget about mental health. Outdoor recreation is going to keep me sane through this, and probably a lot of other people.
Not a lawyer here, but I don’t see how ordering people to stay home would be a reasonable limit on section 7…I have a feeling it wouldn’t be, and government probably doesn’t wanna go down that path.
You can read all about the reasonable limits clause here:
https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/csj-sjc/rfc-dlc/ccrf-ccdl/check/art1.html
I think we need to keep in mind that it’s not dangerous to drive around in a car, it’s not dangerous to go for a bike ride on a quiet road. It’s not dangerous to go hiking away from others. It’s not dangerous to go kayaking. Etc etc.
I think ordering people to stay in their homes would be a very bad idea
I see no issue under the Charter with restrictions on mobility rights at this time given the science. Section 1 always allows rights to be limited if demonstrably justified.
Yeah, the exponential curve is wielding its brutal scythe right now.
Worldwide total deaths just broke 10,000. Italy facing the worst tragedy (5 days of over 350 deaths/day now), with numbers in Spain, Iran, and France surging (over 100 deaths/day). The US and UK may be next.
Many loved ones lost in a short time.
Will Canada do any better?
Big unknowns still with the large less-developed countries: Brazil, India, Pakistan, Indonesia. Somehow Africa has not been badly affected yet, if the numbers are to be believed. Refugee camps? Bad places at the best of times…
Dunno. Babylon was booked up until next Thursday
FYI (updates from CNN):
– New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city is two to three weeks away from running out of medical supplies.
– California governor projects “56% of state’s population will be infected” in the next 8 weeks
Unbelievable yet likely true 🙁
How safe are elevators particularly in a high rise. For that matter what about hallways?
Can walk-in clinic doctors “see” patients over the phone now? From past Tuesday, family doctors have been permitted doing appointments via phone (and faxing prescriptions to pharmacies).
Do you drive? Use plastic?
One advantage of this: fewer people at walk ins. Middle of the afternoon no wait at Saanich clinic. Unheard of!
I don’t see any requirement for a high school diploma. You do have to be 19, and if you’re not a university or college grad from an English-language program you have to pass a proficiency test. Can’t be too hard given the kind of English I’ve seen in listings.
https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/programs/real-estate/licensing-registration-courses/bc-licensing-courses/real-estate-trading-services-licensing
I think the government has to walk a fine line between what is allowed under Emergency/Quarantine Act and the Bill of Rights. Canadian residents have freedom of mobility and the government needs strong justification to limit that.
I found this an interesting read on the subject: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-how-measures-to-contain-covid-19-may-clash-with-canadians-charter/
I agree…..but that is where fat needs to be cut too. You know things are too good when 98% of people pay 30k to sell an average SFH home.
I do disagree on the monopoly….plenty of options to sell and buy. Consumer just doesn’t embrace it.
Want to be on MLS®? plenty of options cheaper than even what I offer -> http://markojuras.com/flat-fee/
Thing is real estate agent will spontaneously disappear when the market turns. City hall they will hang on to people until all options are exhausted.
Are you morally living in a 500 sq/ft condo?
Well done. I’ve had similar experiences, where a good stern talking to will get through to people. (“Scared straight”)
I wish the govt was more definitive, and would just start telling people what they must do, (complete with penalties for non-compliance) not what they “prefer” to do.
For example, the 14 day self-isolation for arrivals isn’t backed up by any penalty for non-compliance. Why not, we have a $500 fine for littering, isn’t refusing to quarantine worse than that?
Barrister,
I’ve been thinking about your “we [elderly people] may have to self-isolate for the rest of our lives” . Of course we all hope that doesn’t turn out to be true, but one point is that it’d be better to be long-term self-isolating in an 8000 sq ft house with a big lawn/garden in a beautiful treed neighborhood than in a shoe box 600sq ft condo on the 10th floor in the city core.
I remember awhile back when you described your place to some here, you were expected to apologize for its large size, and were told that almost no one would want a place that big. Times may be changing, and I wonder if elderly people won’t be in a rush to downsize, or move into a senior home, at least until the virus has passed.
Marko said:
“It makes no sense to me that city hall employees make more than respiratory therapists or carpenters, for example”
To be fair, it makes no sense to a great many people that some real estate agents make more than them, too, with nothing required other than a high school diploma and a several-week course. (You being one of the exceptions, of course, as I have said several times before).
Which one would hurt society more, having all city hall employees spontaneously disappear, or all real estate agents? You could technically train and certify new real estate agents in a matter of weeks. City hall worker would be much harder to replace/train, and everything would grind to a halt.
Let me add to the big cost-cutting fantasies out here:
1. Mostly dissolve CMHC servicing of any new mortgages. Why are taxpayers backing bank mortgages and ergo the housing market to begin with? Let mortgage rates and prices fall where they may, which would likely benefit entry level buyers. And banks can keep all their risk, instead of keeping just profit.
Who are we kidding, if it sells in a couple of days, it doesnt deserve a $10k or $20k payout. If it sells after 30 days, that’s only a slightly different story. BTW a tiered commission system like that would also be an incentive for sellers to price more competitively from the outset.
So yes, there are LOTS of places to cut salaries if you want to get serious about it
Housing related I saw a listing post today that has an open house on Saturday, a “virtual one”. Very cool, this should be the norm. I’m guessing the realtor will do a watch party on Facebook or something?
A friend is renting a condo in Ontario so I’m not sure if their rules are the same as here. But her landlord just told her they’re listing the condo for sale and she doesn’t know what her rights are around showings in the current climate. I personally wouldn’t want anyone in my home right now, rights be damned.
Drove downtown for a medical appointment yesterday, I’d say traffic is down 75%. No kids at playgrounds, i think most people are really embracing the social distancing instructions. Plenty of my parent friends are posting pictures of quarentine adventures… At home or in open spaces like trails or fields with their kids. My toddler is stir crazy but I’m keeping her home from daycare to do my part. She doesn’t like the news updates, if Trudeau was a Pixar character it’d go over a little better. A friend dropped off some supplies we were short on today, and we had a conversation on my lawn 8 feet apart.
Boomer parents on the other hand…
My parents were in Florida last week and didn’t take it seriously when we said get home now, and when they finally did start listening (Thursday) it took 2 days to book a flight and was very stressful. They both have underlying health issues and are in their 60s and were still shopping at the airport, sad they missed Disney world. I’m so glad they’re back in Canada now and yes they’re self quarantined for 14 days, I had family drop off groceries.
In-laws who are life long smokers, one has diabetes.. thought they’d just go to the bank yesterday to pay bills, and go to Costco. We read them the riot act and that if corona doesn’t kill them then we will. Now they’re house bound and having groceries dropped off.
I think moral investing is tremendously important. It’s a million little breezes that put wind in the sails of oil companies. No one little breeze can be held responsible but it’s correct to say that they’re a part of the problem. Universities and governments have been divesting from oil companies for a while now. Why not invest in PZD instead? Also from a purely ROI perspective, I don’t think oil will do well over my lifetime.
Most of BC’s budget goes to health and education.
The chance of government spending in Canada or the US during this downturn causing Venezuela style hyperinflation is about the same as aliens landing tomorrow with a COVID vaccine. I assume you recognize that we are hurtling towards deflation not inflation?
Thankfully most governments around the world realize that this is NOT the time for fiscal austerity. Right now the government should be getting ready to shovel money out the door because there is going to be a huge spike in unemployment as we shut down huge sectors of our economy.
I’m in the process of renewing currently. I have a rate hold at 2.64 for 5 year fixed, but am currently looking at switching to a 5 year variable. Seems more likely that we’ll have further cuts. Probably a slow climb out of whatever covid hole we end up in.
NY has gone from 215 to 4152 in those 8 days.
1770 more in the last 24 hours.
They were definitely under-testing.
QT said: “No risk premium that I see, 2.03% 5y fixed @ 10% down. https://www.ratespy.com/best-mortgage-rates”
Are you limiting your search to BC?
The lowest I’m seeing right now for BC rates on ratespy is 2.22% 5year fixed. And that’s with fewer lenders than were offering the deepest discount rates two weeks ago.
Tangerine was also offering great rates just a week ago. 2.39 5 year fixed, and an amazing 2.79 10 year fixed. Today, Tangerine rates are 2.59 5 year fixed and 2.99 10 year fixed.
Are you and i seeing different rates on our screens, or is the risk premium already here?
/ PS, when you limit your search on ratespy to only Victoria, it’s even worse , 2.49% is the lowest 5 year fixed I’m seeing there.
I think you got it in reversed. Hoover spend money like mad on PS and public projetcs but that didn’t stop the market from the crash or depression.
A main different then and now was that stock market accend 20% per year for 6 consecutive years during the roaring 20s. What belived to triggered the crashed was the Fed inflation control of lending rate increased from 5% to 6%.
https://www.biography.com/us-president/herbert-hoover
In about eight days Canada has gone from 70 cases to 770;
Totoro: That report cheered me right up. Till our numbers end up looking like the Italy I doubt that government will move quickly on this. Stay safe
“So as wasting monomental amount of money that could be put in use where it actually needed is a good thing during hard times?”
Too late. We will be running large deficits for the foreseeable future. Every government, left or right will do it, just like they did in 2008.
For now we need people to keep their bullshit jobs or the whole shit house goes up in flames.
I believe that was Herbert Hoover’s strategy.
The discount at the beginning of the year was about $20 and remains so. So can you see why the discount is a much bigger problem when WTI is at $25 rather than, say $45?
https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilPrice
Last month it was $38.
$5.34 is a different story.
Of course, that was yesterday. Canadian oil has popped quite a bit today. WCS might even be over $10!
So wasting monomental amount of money that could be put in use where it actually needed is a good thing during hard times?
An example, the fat didn’t work out for Venezuela in good time and worst in bad time. In order to stay in power their president/s buys votes by keep on spending on unnecessary PS jobs that absolutely desimated their economy.
This UK study appears both highly credible and highly distressing in its mathematical modelling. Don’t read if you are feeling overwhelmed atm. The takeaway for me is that we need to go to government-enforced lock-down now. I’ve written to the health minister with my concerns. Might be worth doing if you have some as well HLTH.Minister@gov.bc.ca
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
It makes no sense to me that city hall employees make more than respiratory therapists or carpenters, for example. Housing crisis already in place, health care crisis shortly to come. I too think some major fat cutting needs to take place (once the pandemic is over).
Best part in all of this is city halls have put in such measures that builders are now complaining that they can’t book inspections. I am all about trying to to control the spread but an inspector just has to show and walk through the house and tell the builder that he or she can proceed to next step.
People emailing me that their owner builder exam has been delayed…….perfect. We have a crisis and a 100% useless piece of legislation is putting people into economic hardship while everyone at BC Housing continues to get paid. Three emails this morning….
The fat can’t go on forever….we have been chatting about this on the blog for the last year and I think the pandemic will just accelerate the process where we will get to the tipping point sooner. You know how good things have been when there are government resources to come up with an “owner-builder” exam.
Let me see, employ a bunch of useless staff at BC Housing to setup the owner builder exam or maybe buy more ventilators and train more nurses, doctors, respiratory therapists…
“no better time than now to cut out the fat and balance the budget.”
In the middle of a pandemic that has already thrown a lot of people out of work? That would be a monumentally stupid thing to do.
Technology has reduced the need for manual labour, but we haven’t adjusted to this yet. Until we do, bullshit jobs (whether in the private sector or public sector) are necessary.
You nailed it right on the head there. We have way too many paper pushers in society. In this genx opinion it is no better time than now to cut out the fat and balance the budget.
Yes, thanks for catching that, made an error – meant to say 9/10 people are asymptomatic but no way to edit now. Much more alarming.
Funny how government constantly bringing in contractors to do the jobs that the PS are so over qualified at.
“In the meantime public employees are “working” from home for the next 2 weeks, perhaps longer.”
It’s funny how people continue believing that employees will be more productive “working” in an office for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week.
Baby boomers in particular seem to have a hard time functioning without industrial work discipline…I for one can’t stand it, and the one office I worked in that was run by a bunch of clock watchers was by far the least productive place I’ve worked.
Yup, we are delaying the sale of our house as well, was about to list it this week after spending the past year upgrading the family home.
I am actually more relaxed now than I was in Jan. when I first became aware of the seriousness of the virus. I realized the complacency of the western governments at the time was a ticking time bomb. The issue was not the death rate but the number requiring hospital care (5-15%).
The analogy that I like best was that of a large movie theatre with one small fire escape door.
Moving forward once the virus is eradicated (no new cases). Border controls will have to tighten. This whole idea that we freely allow refugees entering the country without quarantines, ESPECIALLY from third world countries with poor medical services will make this a ticking time bomb, and if they get community spread again, we would have to shut down the whole country again. Maybe we might have to go through that cycle twice to get the political will to take these necessary measures (btw I myself am an immigrant, now citizen, but to protect my community and my adopted home these are necessary measures to enact). See Russia for an example of how they manage people entering the country.
On the plus, went heavy into the stock market the past few days. I don’t have a crystal ball, it might drop more, I just invest in a contrarian manner into industries that should grow like health care and tech. The old saying when there is blood in the streets ….
This too shall pass, depending on the spine of the politicians this could be 3 weeks this could be 2 years.
Wish everyone a safe and happy quarantine. Now I have the time to do all those passion projects I put hold, because I never had the time before.
Right. Most of the PS employees I know (front line: doctors, nurses, lab technicians, military, police, firefighters) aren’t working from home. Then there are the people that ensure that the economic measures the government has announced can actually take place may be working from home (or still going into the office) but are still working and I would rather have them there (administrators for EI, CPP, BC Pension, and other benefits). You know, the ones that are trying to ensure those most impacted will be helped.
Of course some are staying home with not much too do. Small price to pay to ensuring proper Social Distancing. But for the most part all PS employees are trying to help and get things done. It called having a sense of purpose and pride is serving the country.
You must have been either let go from the PS or just didn’t qualify for a job. Be happy that the PS is still functioning cause without it things would be a lot worse.
A friend I had contact with a week and a half ago has since tested positive. About 4 days later (mid last week) I started to feel slightly ill, like a vague cold. Then nothing for several days, and as of this morning, I’m coughing. Mrs Fool on the other hand went to bed at 5:30pm last night, inexplicably exhausted. I was looking forward to my house arrest ending next week, now I wonder if that gets reset. Haha.
Good times! 😛
It bears repeating that half the population’s IQ falls on the left side of the bell curve.
Correction: war chest
Ontario has 43 more cases today bringing the total up to 257 or roughly a 20% increase in one day. One day math is not that important but if we follow Spain’s increase rate of doubling every five days then a month from now the numbers will start to look bad.
Wouldn’t have Western Canada Select been at a huge discount 30 days ago as well when Suncor was trading over $40 per share?
In the meantime public employees are “working” from home for the next 2 weeks, perhaps longer.
I think the relevant index for Suncor is Western Canada Select, which is currently $5.43 .
Unlike pipeline companies that have steady stream of revenue that might able to pull of a high dividend yeild, however that is a highly unlike situation as the company would hold cash in good time to build up a war chess or make a one time divide payout. SU is an energy/mining company that is market dependent so it is very likely that they would cut dividend yeild when market is down, however the current stock price an absolute bargain.
And, Canadian oil was priced as low as $7 yesterday due to pipelines constrained, thanks to the sjw knuckleheads.
Unfortunately starting to hear stories of people taking advantage of the current situation. One of my friends is a manager and he says employees on 14 day quarantine are asking for 14 working days off (not 14 calendar days).
I was on a construction site yesterday helping my father and some of the conversations on the neigbouring site….sigh…..”we will be getting free rent soon,” etc.
Looks like they are planning a lockdown in Germany on Monday. My friend who is a Doctor in Munich just got a permit allowing her to move around given she works in health care.
I am not naive enough to think that I can change the world by not buying oil sands shares. I would never buy an ICE car personally but when it comes to investments I’ll buy whatever I think will reap the most return. Doesn’t matter to me whether it is Tesla or Suncor and currently I have a feeling there is more upside on Suncor. I think Suncor can sustain the 12% dividend at $35 to $40 oil. Sure oil is at $24 right now but I can’t see that long term even with Russians and Saudis pumping.
It is a good time to go long with energy/mining. SU was one out of seven stocks that I bought this morning.
That’s 10 out of 11 asymptomatic.
hence why I said wait for it. Lets see where they are on Monday / Tuesday of next week.
We bought a Thai-style one one after being in Thailand. We bought this one: https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B0711MJ94L/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Interesting, do you have a link for that?
Absolutely. Thanks for the update Leo, and 17,000 tested in BC is a good number.
This site reports provincial totals, https://ncov2019.live/data
BC at 231 cases would make the overall positive rate in the tests = 231/17,000 = 1.4% (of course that number is likely rising too)
And that 17,000 tests for 5.4m people in BC is about 3k/million which puts us above Canada overall and above average worldwide, though still need way more testing.
Judging by what I can see happening out of my car window or my house windows I question whether even half of people are actually practicing social distancing much less practicing it on a consistent basis.
It would interesting to pick a single international flight arriving and discouver what percentage of passengers are self quarantining for 14 days. My guess is less than ten per cent. They are not even checking temperatures before boarding a flight to Canada.
Unlike Australia and New Zealand we are not prepared to actually quarantine and test people entering Canada. Asking people to self quarentine makes it look like the government is doing something when in reality it is basically ineffectectual.
Totoro: I doubt that we will be able to test large populations effectively.
Mine arrived a week ago. Apparently bidet sales are up tenfold
UAE and Iceland are crushing it
Adrian Dix said about 17000 during the press conference yesterday. They are releasing official numbers on fridays. He wants the labs to focus on testing not reporting, Which is hard to argue with but I think having transparent current data can help to reassure so there is value there
I hope we get widespread testing soon. One in ten were asymptomatic in Italy when they tested a whole town. They were able to stop new cases almost overnight by testing everyone and quarantining the infected and their families. As it stands now, the BC Ministry of Health’s online self-test only requires the affected individual – who may or may not have coronavirus – to stay home. There is no certainty for anyone, and family members without symptoms are not told to stay home so I don’t believe they are. This is not going to work well, although the social distancing will help.
Exactly. Banks won’t just be looking at current income, they’ll want to determine how long-term secure your job is. Tightening lending standards is a guaranteed response by the banks to a recession/depression. It’s possible that some house-hunters now are aware of that and buying while they still can, though that seems an unwise move financially.
Bizarro world of strong Canadian housing market, at the same time as open houses are stopping, and sales offices are closing. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bully-offers-eclipse-virus-woes-in-canada-s-housing-market-1.1408549
This will likely stop any day now.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-as-the-coronavirus-spreads-why-are-some-mortgage-rates-rising/
No risk premium that I see, 2.03% 5y fixed @ 10% down
https://www.ratespy.com/best-mortgage-rates
Risk premium. Wait for it.
I laughed when I saw this in January. Now it seems kind of genius. I might have to get a matching set for the family.
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vancouver-news/traveling-containers-heads-yvr-photos-2054517
Amen.
This is an evolving situation. Even if you source all your information from government authorities, that information changes daily, and some governments are contradicting others in some aspects. Iran in particular has a high number of serious cases with young people compared to other countries.
Are you telling me that you’re an EV evangelist that buys oil sands shares?
Here’s a neat article about flattening the curve for those interested:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
BC CDC site still says:
6,326 individuals tested as of March 13, 2020.
For toilet paper shortage issue, someone suggested an add-on bidet on existing toilet 😉
Basically yeah.
Can take that long but I’d say the average is probably not that long. Marko would know better,
As you say any condition can be triggered just by cold feet. That’s why it says “for the sole benefit of the buyer”.
Out of town but I’ll run the stats again to see if we kept trending down when I return.
Fixed rates are set in the bond market and that has been ticking up as investors indiscriminately sell everything https://ca.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-5-year-bond-yield
Some of the best fixed 5 year mortgage rate deals I was seeing advertised just a couple weeks ago have been replaced with higher rates, despite the Bank of Canada rate moves downward in that time.
Does anybody remember if the same dynamics of rising mortgage rates and falling BoC rates happened during the financial crisis of 2008?
I know it’s more complicated than just the Bank of Canada rate moves, and that apart from other closely tied money market numbers the banks may be reacting to too many mortgage refinances/applications right now, or may be also reacting to higher perceived risk…
Do mosquitoes love you? Are you always the person slapping mosquitoes when others nearby are oblivious to the mosquito kamikazes? If mosquitoes love you then you’re probably Blood Type O
There is some good news for those of us Type O people.
Mosquitoes may love us but apparently the COVID-19 coronavirus does not like Type O people.
Blood Type A people seem to repel mosquitoes but unfortunately the COVID-19 coronavirus seems to prefer people with Blood Type A.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/people-blood-type-a-might-susceptible-coronavirus-study-finds
The Easter Bunny gets to live.
Nice 🙂
So does that mean that you’ll let the easter bunny live?
Barrister, no need to repay, my pleasure to help out.
Everything I am looking at is showing 0.1 to 0.2% mortality in the 20 to 44 bracket, for example.
Keep in mind you don’t have to be intubated to be moved to the ICU. If there is capacity they will stuff you into the ICU on high-flow oxygen just in case especially if you are young.
ARDS is 47% mortality and some studies are showing 2 to 4% 20 to 44 yr old bracket requiring ICU and with a 0.1 to 0.2% mortality that would likely mean where there is capacity they are putting young patients NOT requiring intubation into the ICU for close monitoring.
If 2 to 4% required ICU and ventilator support you would expect a mortality of 1 to 2%.
It’s becoming clearer each day that this virus kills unhealthy people in far greater percentages than healthy people.
Here is a quote from NBC news site:
“At Holy Name Medical Center in Teaneck, New Jersey, most of the hospitalized coronavirus patients are younger than 65.
“We’re seeing younger patients, one a 29-year-old, some in their 40s, 50s. ” Dr. Adam Jarrett, the center’s chief medical officer, told NBC News on Monday, adding he was surprised patients’ ages skewed younger than he’d expected.
All but one had underlying health conditions, such as heart or lung disease, diabetes and obesity.
“I am concerned about people who are obese,” Jarrett said”
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/not-just-older-people-younger-adults-are-also-getting-coronavirus-n1160416
I’m sure you are feeling a little fatigued by some of the information coming your way, so feel free to skip to the very bad joke below I’ve added to the collection, but it really does seem like younger folks are entering ICU at bigger numbers in NA and Europe. They are less likely to die, but we don’t know long-term what happens. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html?fbclid=IwAR1CCj0TGah8-jsmMVRP4AZg-4TXpwVkpM2tA6ODHqQdfKFnuxEkUZMecXk
‘I’ve run out of toilet paper and have to use lettuce leaves. Today was the tip of the iceberg’.
Short term rental group on facebook…..
No
Thank you LeoM!!
Totoro: Thanks for the info but LeoM has acted like a real hero and i am not sure how to repay him.
Thank you LeoM; that is very kind of you. It will not be forgotten and if I can help with anything please let me know. Naturally happy to pay you for the eggs next time we see each other.
To the kindness of strangers.
Barrister, Check your front door, you’ll find a dozen eggs.
Red Barn on OB Avenue has plenty of eggs and they deliver.
Canada restaurant traffic down 94% yesterday. Most restaurants closed. Vancouver down 96%, Toronto down 100% (they aren’t allowed to be open, except for takeout)
Source: real-time data from OpenTable https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
Barrister, my wife spotted eggs at the Walmart in Langford this afternoon. They did have a limit of 2 cartons per customer.
No eggs yet, but we will manage without for now. Just wondering as to what items people suddenly start to hoard. it is not like there are less chickens laying eggs every day.
Leo S said: “One in five properties still going over ask in the last 3 days”
So those would all or mostly have been offers that went in two weeks ago, yes? (Since it can take 10+ days for conditions to come off , and to be able to see what the accepted price was). Things were still pretty bad two weeks ago, but will be interesting to see the numbers for offers after things really started going to hell in the last few days (though my guess is there’ll still be offers over asking that have not quite understood the declines that are about to probably happen to the market, even according the the BC real estate association)
By the way, is there data on how many offers are cancelled due to a condition not being met? I know it isn’t so hard to use a condition as an excuse when the truth is the buyer just changed their mind (not that I condone that). This data, too, would be interesting to compare as the Corona crisis has worsened.
PS, is there any point remaining for the Victoria sales predictions people here made at the start of the new year? Whomever wins certainly can’t say they predicted a Corona effect.
I’d be interested to see what regulars predict going forward from now, perhaps based on two or three scenarios of the severity and how long it takes the crisis to play out.
Barrister, did you find eggs?
“One in five properties still going over ask in the last 3 days”
Is this the same as before the COVID situation?
Still seeing offer delays for March 23rd.
Clients still booking showings to view properties while I would rather be sitting on my balcony in the sunshine.
Forgot who asked, but BC Ferries announced people can stay in their cars now even if parked below decks.
One in five properties still going over ask in the last 3 days
17000 people tested so far
I read that the banks will be evaluating this on a case by case basis, so I assume that it wouldn’t automatically even apply for principal residents.
Reference: https://globalnews.ca/news/6694459/coronavirus-canada-big-banks-mortgage-payment-deferrals/
Lately about 1850 people per year have died in Canada due to road traffic accidents, 37,500 per year in the US. Globally there are about 1.25 million road deaths per year.
We largely accept these risks. Certainly we could greatly reduce those numbers (if we cared too) with measures far less drastic and economically damaging than current Covid measures
So many of our children’s friends have already lost their jobs. They are young and single and working lower end of the scale jobs in retail and restaurants, but it still is tough. Thanks Canada for stepping in with the emergency income support program.
So does the 6 month mortgage payment deferral program apply only to principal residences or are investment properties included as well?
I’ve been too busy with work to buy anything so far but Suncor at $14.50? Way cheaper than what it bottomed out during 2008/2009 recession.
Thankfully, no. One of us has a public sector job, the other is a stay-at-home parent, and our tenant is in the public sector, too, so our rental income isn’t in jeopardy.
However, we have several close friends in Calgary who work in oil and gas, and my thoughts sometimes turn to them. All have families with young children. All make excellent money. But with oil prices where they are, no matter how high up in the company food chain you are, no job is guaranteed.
Hoping for the best — but would also like to see them transition to a different industry at some point, one that isn’t boom and bust, and one that isn’t destroying the planet. Maybe a global economic and oil price meltdown like this one will be a catalyst for some positive change.
One of the B and B’s in Rockland has just shut its doors for the summer.
Late 30: For those of us less familiar what do you mean by cancellation request. Are you booking or renting your unit?
Canadian oil plummets to lowest level on record, TSX halted as market rout continues
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-loonie-wednesday-1.5501335
received cancellation requests from AirBNB and VRBO……
Has anyone been to a store today that actually had eggs? Dont tell me the secret location but just whether any of them still have eggs.
Dang, I’m not digitally literate enough to figure out how to include a picture of Elmer Fudd.
Just to get it back to real estate for a second.
I see the industry is still struggling to get a programmer to change the code so assessments show up properly. March 18th… lol.
Still using 2019 assessments in PCS listings. Also still doing open houses.
What a great, professional, trustworthy, industry they are.
1726 Mortimer
2019 Assessed: $797,000
2020 Assessed: $727,000
PCS assessment states $797,000
Thanks James: Think I will kill the Easter Bunny and eat him.
FYI: notice received from Peppers Food (located in Caddy Bay) today:
“We have some changes today –
We will be implementing a customer limit in the store to comply with social distancing protocols
Please, for our safety and yours, leave your reusable bags at home.
Our hours until further notice will be 8 am to 6 pm, however, if you are a senior or vulnerable, please, feel free to come in between 7 am and 8 pm.”
Easter is coming up Barrister.
FYI: current Definition and reason for Self- monitoring, Self-isolation, and Isolation:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/self-monitoring-self-isolation-isolation-for-covid-19.html
I guess most of us doing now is SD.
They may all be eligible now under the emergency benefits just announced?
Genworth is now down over 50% from its peak earlier in 2020. The controlling position in Genworth was bought by Brookfield last year, they must be kicking themselves now.
https://bbu.brookfield.com/press-releases/2019/08-13-2019-112927705
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/MIC-T/
Canadian $ plunges below .70; currently at .689.
Save your pennies, plant that veggie garden – shit’s about to get expensive.
I was just reading, reputable medical source (John Hopkins) that they believe that most people who are infected have no symptoms for 5 to 7 days and that it takes about another week after that before people get sick enough to seek medical help. I guess we all have another week or two to find out if we got it already.
Drove to the plaza and saw people over fifty just yammering with their friends while standing a couple of feet away. I suspect that we may have squandered the opportunity to flatten the curve. The messaging from the government has not really helped. Gathering in groups under fifty is not safe, any unnecessary gatherings at all are not safe.
Just watch the numbers in France, Italy and Spain and that is the likely situation here in about a month.
I am about a week into self isolation so I guess it will be another week before I am confident that I dont have it. That this may kill me in the next week is a less than comforting thought.
We’re going to be house hunting during this, eventually. Current focus is to move into another rental at the end of the month but once the dust settles on the virus crisis, I’ll need to see what our standing as first time buyers looks like. One government job (but on parental leave ATM) and the other works at UVic, sort of expecting to be laid off though but it won’t be forever.
Still figuring out how I feel about just our situation. I think rents will be going down due to airbnbs coming onto market so our new rent will seem too high but I also am glad to not be rental hunting right now when we’re supposed to be distancing. Also, I think we stand to save some bucks buying a house and am glad we didn’t panic buy when we got our renoviction notice.
Feeling really bad for friends. Housing aside, most of our friends that are not govn’t or schools have lost their jobs and don’t know when things will change for them. Flight attendant, massage therapist, waitress, baggage handler, seamstress, mechanic. Some have EI some don’t. 🙁
Anyone accessing the mortgage deferral I recommend doing it now. get ahead of the curve before the banking support staff and phone systems are overwhelmed
I think it’s more, “Follow the money”. IMHO, they’re doing the same thing they always do regardless of circumstance.
Which headline will get more views:
“The flu can cause respiratory complications for people of all ages, Covid-19 found to be substantially similar”
or:
“Covid-19 is now killing younger people”
🙂
Distinctly the latter, and many folks will unfortunately swallow it hook, line and sinker.
Here is the aid package. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2020/03/canadas-covid-19-economic-response-plan-support-for-canadians-and-businesses.html
Glad to see they are targeting the most vulnerable folks. That and support for business is the right approach.
Well, why is it so difficult for you to provide links to back up your argument?
Very odd that during pandemic times the main stream news sites still adhere to their ‘political correctness’ tripe rather than giving unbiased complete news coverage.
Here is the latest example. Some news sites are now pushing the narrative that younger people are now contracting the virus with serious complications. And that’s all they say. HOWEVER, if you search for confirmation on other websites you’ll eventually find the truth is a different story. Here is the sentence most news sites neglected to print:
“All but one of the young patients had serious underlying health conditions, such as heart or lung disease, diabetes and obesity.” (This quote is a consolidation of several)
Obesity has been a known factor that induces serious complications in young COVID-19 patients for weeks, but most new sites neglect to mention this fact.
Why is it so difficult for news sites to be completely forthright with the known facts?
Leo, now your choice to blow that WA trip seems to have been a good idea…bet you’re relieved.
According to CTV news Trump has confirmed that Canada US border is closing to all non essential workers.
Wonder how that is going to impact all the AirB&B’s? I can see the hotels really starting to shutter down.
Good Morning
I am wondering why there is this rush on eggs at the moment. Hopefully the supermarkets will start limiting quantities soon.
Teranet data is based on closings, so the same sale will show up in their data a month or two behind the RE board stats. In addition, they use a 3 month moving average. I wouldn’t expect to see current events affecting Teranet until around June.
Yeah we are lucky that our shock comes on top of ultra low unemployment. For them it’s just been hit after hit.
Get a couple kettlebells. You could emerge from this the fittest you’ve ever been.
My wife and I are putting our purchase plans on hold. Honestly I’m not sure if our preapproval would even be eligible given the fact my wife is a dental hygienist and offices, including hers, are closing so we won’t have that income for quite some time. No EI available for her yet – hopefully that changes in the coming weeks. As well the Province has chosen to keep daycares open so we are feeling compelled to pay for ours in fear of losing a spot which we were lucky to get. I suppose we will just have to bite the bullet if they continue to stay open by month end and just take our little guy out – doesn’t make sense to be down an income with my wife home and still paying for something we don’t need. Luckily i have a stable gov job and make enough to get by during these crazy days. Anyone else here losing an income or two?
Well at least the Teranet is up – who knows for how much longer. Victoria up 0.2%. Calgary and Edmonton got hammered and oil prices have fallen drastically in the last few weeks – I’m assuming Alberta will feel the most pain over the coming months:
March 18, 2020
A vigorous gain for a month of February
In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.4% from the previous month, a rise that was double the average of the last 10 Februarys. Component indexes were up for seven of the 11 markets surveyed – Montreal 1.1%, Vancouver 0.8%, Halifax 0.8%, Toronto 0.4%, Victoria 0.2%, Winnipeg 0.1% and Ottawa-Gatineau 0.1%. Indexes were down for Hamilton (−0.3%), Quebec City (−0.4%), Calgary (−0.9%) and Edmonton (−1.3 %).
The index for Vancouver has now gone five months without a decline. Its run of 15 straight months without a rise seems to be definitely over, especially since the Vancouver resale market has returned to balance as measured by its ratio of listings to sales. The index for Victoria has moved little over the last four months. Indexes for Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton are down from five months ago. Indexes for Toronto, Montreal, Hamilton and Halifax, on the other hand, are up strongly from 11 months ago. Of the six markets in eastern Canada included in the composite index, Quebec City is the only one that is down from seven months ago.
The RE industry sees the likelihood of declines so they are promoting a “buy on the dip” strategy. Anything you see coming out of BCREA is just marketing.
Yeah, except the doctor who is treating patients in Belgium (Dr. Ignace Demeyer) stated ” CT scans indicated they were suffering from severe lung damage”. Maybe you know better based on no review of the CT scans? Not sure. You can actually take a look at the scans if you watch the link. And maybe this is short term – but serious enough to be labelled severe by a medical doctor.
We do also know that some people who recover from it are left with 20 to 30% less lung function. They are left breathless from walking quickly as a result.
Maybe it will resolve later or maybe they will develop pulmonary fibrosis- not yet known according to Dr Owen Tsang Tak-yin, medical director of the authority’s Infectious Disease Centre at Princess Margaret Hospital in Kwai Chung.
I’m only pointing out information reported by physicians. We don’t have data to know long term complications that might occur for younger people. Fatality rate is not the only thing that matters.
It would just be a different crisis. Who would rotate PDFs and click “forgot password” for them?
I was able to get a workout in today, the last one for a while, because it closed at the end of the day today.
Even if a vaccine might not be ready, they are currently already testing drugs that could potentially reduce the symptoms which if they work should reduce the strain on the health system.
Reference: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/12/understanding-sars-cov-2-and-the-drugs-that-might-lessen-its-power
It will have to in my opinion. Once it is understood how much the health care system can handle restrictions will need to be relaxed to get the economy going again even if it leads to deaths.
In the US your lifetime chances of dying in a car accident, killed by a firearm, intentional self-harm, etc., etc., are all individually substantially hire than dying from COVID19 if you are under 60 yrs old.
We allow roads to keep the economy going and we will need to allow COVID19 deaths as well at some point.
Not too mention I’ve already put on a few pounds cause my gym is closed so I’ve used it as an excuse not to exercise. At some point months of quarantine will lead to increase in cardiovascular disease and other issues.
Bcrea:
It will take 18 months to manufacture enough vaccine, longer to innoculate the population and we don’t have a verified vaccine yet. I’m not trying to be alarmist but I don’t see why things would start to recover in the summer.
“Prediction: There will be a minor baby boom in 9 months and in 2033, we will witness the rise of the quaran-teens!”
How about a whole bunch of divorces in 2-3 months?!!
This is such ridiculous non-sense. I have lung scarring on x-ray from TB. In addition I have significant thoracic kyphosis on x-ray and my quality of life is 100% (I can play tennis, basketball, soccer, etc.)
Yes, if you end up with ARDS (A stands for acute) and you survive your chest x-ray will look like shit for a while but that does not translate to “serious lung damage” long term.
Serious lung damage is from diseases like COPD (C stands for chronic).
They’ll be 12 in 2033.
And a trail of middle-aged shoppers chasing them down to try and get their rolls back.
I have no idea if this is the case, nor is it a point that I am making.
That also is not the point imo. The point is to be aware of risk – we don’t know what we don’t know right now and it is better to err on the side of caution. And if you dislike the tone of the mainstream article – which seems pretty reasonable to me, look at the data-based article instead. Maybe the lung damage is reversible? Maybe some of it is not. But some younger people have been affected in this manner.
Let’s keep the conspiracy theories somewhere else please
LeoM said: “Mother Earth is sick from a parasite that ravages her health, that parasite is humans who are destroying her ability to maintain her planet’s good health”
(Sounds like you may have watched the movie “The Matrix” recently.)
I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that you live in Fernwood. 😉
In the time of COVID19, roving gangs of good samaritan teenagers are TPing houses at night.
For a totally different take on the virus, watch this video by an American living in China who creates a timeline with information that suggests a possibility that the vaping lung illnesses in the USA in 2019 might have been caused by the coronavirus escaping from an American military research centre. That research centre was closed by the American CDC because their containment protocols were inadequate. Very interesting video.
https://youtu.be/3J6zm6zgah0
Thrifty in Fairfield is out of eggs; you cannot stock pile eggs; what the hell is going on/
The article you are referencing seems a bit like click bait. It contains no analysis on if this lung scarring is going to reduce their quality of life and will the lungs be able to repair themselves? The article also seems to just be based on a single doctor’s observation.
When I immigrated to Canada I had to get tested for TB, because of the lung scarring that showed up in my lungs on an X-ray. I have never noticed any issues with my lungs despite the scarring. The doctor assumed I may have had TB as a kid without knowing about it due to the time I spent in the tropics as a kid.
I am not denying this scarring from coronavirus is worse, but at the same time this single article that doesn’t seem well researched shouldn’t be used to try and scare people in my opinion.
Agree on that point.
Totoro, you and I see this ‘pandemic’ differently. Walk down any street in North America, or Europe, or China and if you’re a ‘people watcher’ you’ll see a huge percentage of the population lead very unhealthy lifestyles. Smoking, drinking, drugs, sedentary lifestyle, crap food, obesity, to name just a few. Of course these people have weak immune systems, even when middle aged or younger, so it’s no surprise that these people will be the next victims of the virus. But still, the statistics point to older folks with pre-existing medical issues in the vast majority of fatal cases.
Mother Earth is sick from a parasite that ravages her health, that parasite is humans who are destroying her ability to maintain her planet’s good health, so perhaps this virus is simply Mother Earth’s immune system fighting the parasite that infects her good health.
Okay – wrong article for you. Here is a peer reviewed scientific article in less alarmist terms for a layperson.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200303175318.htm
Totoro couldn’t have just made your point for you, in more perfect terms. What an article she posted. And Totoro, I’m not going to go after you any more after this post, as I honestly don’t think you can help yourself, despite coming with what I percieve as the best of intentions. But for now…
Terrifying. You could be 30 years old, perfectly healthy – and your lungs could be destroyed by this illness. Let’s not minimize the risk please – or this could be your fate. Your loved one’s fate. Do you folks feel empowered with that kind of information, or more terrified?
Indeed, that coronavirus is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop (per James), ever – until your lungs are a quivering, non-functional, fibroid-ridden scrap heap. If you’re not dead, you’ll wish you were! Not fear mongering – look, you can even see the x-rays all over the scary article in the NYpost!
Good grief. Some of the most dangerous people are the ones that are panicked, but don’t think they are. What Totoro is doing is precisely how unmitigated fear develops and spreads. Good thing this site has a limited reader-base.
The reality is, almost any flu causing virus can theoretically cause lung damage in patients who’s immune system responds a manner conducive to complications. It’s far more likely in the elderly, and, just like the current pathogen, can lead to ARDS which is vastly more lethal than the flu or Covid-19. The fact that it can happen, is meaningless in predicting your individual likelihood that it will. You might as well become terrified of the common cold, since it can turn into bacterial pneumonia and left untreated (or sometimes, even if it is treated) grant you a horrible, lingering death. Does it happen? You betcha. But do you really think contemplating that or encouraging others to contemplate that is useful?
Take respiratory illness and its containment seriously. Take panic and fear mongering masquerading as logic, with a grain of salt.
LeoM – each area seems to have different demographics. In France many of those in ICU are now under 60. In Italy more 40-45s are being admitted. Even if you don’t die, very serious lung damage is happening among the 30-50 year olds. This is not clickbait. Stop minimizing things please, and start spreading the word about SD.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-doctor-says-lung-scans-for-young-patients-were-nothing-short-of-terrifying/
Although the mean age of people dying of the virus is 80+ years old, most of whom have serious pre-existing medical conditions, each city’s news stations will devote front-page news headlines to the 1% of deaths that happen to young people with no pre-existing medical conditions. Wait for it, it will happen. Click-bait news and overly dramatized headlines will become more frequent during the pandemic. News sites want to capitalize by selling more ads, so click-bait happens.
Many people and organizations are looking for ways to capitalize on the pandemic, I don’t just mean the people gouging consumers with overpriced hand sanitizers, the trend will become rampant.
I don’t know how long your investment window is, but I can tell you what we are doing. We are not selling stocks. We are buying more every Sunday. We are holding RE with no plans to sell as a result of this event. I don’t feel panicked at all about financial losses.
Financially, IMO this too will pass. If you are in a position where you are considering going cash you are already far better off than most people are. Deep breath and hold, this too will pass.
Are you at risk of significant income/job loss? If your job is secure, what risks make you consider selling house/equities?
I’m fortunate; job loss and mortgage payments are not issues for me. I can’t exercise my first choice, which would be to build a time machine, go back to January 15th, 2020, and dump all my equities. So, I’m going to hold’em. But that’s just me.
I’m past the fear stage, wrt the stock market. Portfolio has been down as much as 17%, and I’m a little numb. I choose optimism, though. Stock market goes up 70% of the time. I’m not borrowing money to invest, yet. I think we’ll see more downside as the infection and mortality numbers increase.
Corona Virus jokes, to be shared over a glass of “quarantini” (Thanks, S.O. for that):
Once they come out with the coronavirus vaccine, I don’t want any of you anti-vaxxers out there getting one. Don’t be a hypocrite.
All curling sports are now to be played with swiffers, not brushes.
Imagine the delight amongst Jehovah’s Witnesses, knowing everyone is going to be home.
Prediction: There will be a minor baby boom in 9 months and in 2033, we will witness the rise of the quaran-teens.
If you need 144 rolls of toilet paper for a 14 day quarantine, you should have probably seen a doctor long before Covid-19.
Behold, the look of relief on the bank teller’s faces when they see 2 masked men coming in, and realize they’re just there to rob the place.
Day 2 without sports: Found some young lady sitting on my couch today. Apparently she’s my wife. She seems nice.
Corona beer considers changing its name to Ebola beer, to avoid association with the coronavirus.
Little boy eating dinner with his mom: Hey Mom, when is this virus thing over so I can leave the house? Mom: Shut up and eat your toilet paper.
Going to a Victoria hospital complaining of flu symptoms: Doctor says, have you been to any countries currently experiencing an epidemic? “Yes, Canada.”
This episode of Black Mirror sucks.
Toilet paper and hand sanitizer are sold out yet the liquor store is fully stocked. Don’t you people realize you will be stuck with your family for an extended period of time?
Speaking to my financial advisor and calmer friends gives a sense of peace. And then I speak to friends predicting economic depressions and doomsday scenarios, and my stress levels spike.
I know this a total Black Swan, but, health impacts aside, what should we really do with our financial holdings like RE and equities? Is it stupid and an over-reaction to go to cash and lock in losses?
Canada restaurant traffic down 60% YOY (real-time data from openTable comparing March 16 2020 with similar weekday last year, this number was down 40% only a few days ago, and wasn’t down at all two weeks ago. Same story with much of the rest of the world.
https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
I used the “quarantini” gag on a fellow today that was walking along with a 4 litre jug of Pine Sol. He got a laugh out of it.
Yes, things are getting out of hand at the bunker. I’d invite you over but…
Drop your quarantini?
Italy has drafted 10,000 medical students to help with coronavirus treatment. Seems likely this is going to happen elsewhere.
oops
Anecdote(s) alert…
I have an evening event that I attend regularly which was just cancelled due to half the staff coming down with symptoms. I asked what their intention was for testing, and they didn’t seem interested. Seemed they just intended to stay home and quarantine.
Another friend of mine spoke to a VIHA nurse today after having symptoms and wanting to get tested. He was told that they don’t have enough kits for first responders, let alone people calling in complaining of symptoms.
Basically – are you having trouble breathing and do you have any complicating medical conditions?
If that’s a no and no, they apparently just tell you to stay home. Depending on how widely that answer is being given out to inquiring people, I would be highly suspicious of official infection numbers.
Hey barrister – I read there were 7 new cases yesterday( bringing the total to 8) and now there are 4 more cases bringing it to 12. https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/mobile/b-c-declares-public-health-emergency-with-12-cases-of-covid-19-on-vancouver-island-1.4857080
Anyone else hear the press conference online with Horgan and Minister James? Talk of renter support – maybe covering rent payments and no evictions. The feds now allow deferral of mortgage payments of 6 months if CMHC insured. Think its only fair that renters get support since the most vulnerable in the gig economy being hit right now are generally renters.
Any update yet on new BC covid cases and cases on island?
Currently looking at switching lenders as coast capital has a 5 year variable for 2.00%…
Leo I am entering as well, second prize is three days in Paris.
I’m entering, I might finally win something!
Stress-test rates drop tomorrow (apparently): “Stress Test Eases Tomorrow: The benchmark rate (a.k.a. minimum stress test rate) will fall from 5.19% to 5.04% tomorrow. That’ll boost the mortgage amount typical borrowers can qualify for by roughly 1.30%.”
Nonsense. That would be much bigger crisis than this one now, as older people with more health issues can die from flu, and young people couldn’t even take care of themselves. But if I had to make a choice for myself when there is medicare shortage, I would chose to give the chance to young people, so would doctors.
Look what you can win at LD! https://www.londondrugs.com/triptospain.html
BCREAs thoughts on impact on housing market
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/sketching-out-the-potential-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-bc-housing-market/
FYI: Notice from For Good Measure (bulk food store in Caddy Bay):
“Starting Wednesday March 18th we will be running our business as a pickup and delivery service only.
Pickup Service: $3.00. Call in, email or slide your order through the mail slot and we will have it ready for pickup 4 hours later
Delivery Service: $5 within 5km, $10 5-15km. Min order $25”
As mentioned already in the media, the hospital is cancelling all elective procedures to open up beds for urgent/emergency cases and allow some flexibility in the system should a worst case scenario play out. The operations being done are assessed case by case to determine the level of urgency.
Also, visitors to the hospital are strongly discouraged. Please only visit if absolutely necessary.
I would love to hear from Hawk.
Lord – the server’s hosting Leo’s site must be on fire with the HHV traffic here lately. The weekend was cool weather wise but I was out mountain biking Mt Tzouhalem and hiking at Christy Falls (west of Ladysmith). I highly recommend either of these covid-19 safe activities!
Inflation didn’t hit at the consumer level, but obviously asset values have gone through the roof. The younger generations continue to get bent over a barrel because they received nothing from the bailouts of the GFC. However I agree Leo, keeping the stress test that high is only going to be a further impediment for FTB.
Completely agree. Covid-19 is going to be an epic battle for our health workers, and the deaths will climb and it’s precisely because we simply are not prepared for it, in terms of testing or providing critical care once sick. Of course that’s not to say we shouldn’t try to flatten the curve as much as possible.
But I agree with LF and Marko – I think economically we are on an even worse trajectory and, if history is a guide (thanks LF for that article) there’s a good chance it’ll likely go like it did in 1918. An extended time of quarantine, shutdowns, and then a major realization that the world must go on or it’ll morph into a economic catastrophe.
Seeing as I said I went cash mid last year I’ll assume this is direct to me.
I never said anyone was ignorant or stupid by following the “tried and true” method of investing. In fact I said if you followed that you were a winner over the last few decades. I questioned where the end game is for never ending growth – sorry/not sorry if that shakes anyone’s worldview.
The weather on the Island is looking good – get out and take in nature, be thankful for what we have and realize this too shall pass.
Victoria clipper cancels service indefinately.
As we knew would occur,
B.C. K-12 schools suspended indefinitely
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/coronavirus-covid-19-bc-schools-1.5500453
My understanding is teachers are expected to work (no one is sure yet what that will look like) and will continue to receive a salary.
not sure if it was mentioned on the last page but banks cutting prime rate by the full 50 bps – 2.95% – https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/canadian-banks-cut-prime-rate-earnings-declines-seen-this-year
Europe, except for the UK, is almost totally on emergency measures lock down. Troops have been called up and/or deployed to enforce and assist in Spain, Italy, Switzerland and France – not sure where else.
Pretty much all areas of the hospital system operate at 100% capacity. That’s why elective surgeries are being cancelled, to free up beds and services.
There are some deceased that can’t be cared for in a timely manner due to safety concerns with radioactivity following cancer treatments. The need for autopsy will also slow down the process of transfer to funeral homes. Indigent patients can take time to transfer due to the slow, bureaucratic processes of the Ministry of Social Development, which is responsible for their eventual disposition. The morgue just doesn’t operate with the same degree of urgency as the ICU.
Perhaps seasonal flu killing the “normal” number of geriatric patients for this time of year?
https://twitter.com/MichaelSona/status/1239956333929127939
Flu season, indigent OD cases that have no one to claim their remains, logistical hurdles with necessary paperwork for release to funeral homes. There are reasons not solely related to the pandemic for this situation. I don’t mean to be alarmist.
How the hell did hospital morgues end up at 100% capacity.
Oops, 2 seconds ago received email from Morticia (she’s good with it) that hospital morgues are at 100% capacity. Probably normal for this time of year, but doesn’t help with planning for potential surge.
So many comments on the last article It was slowing the site loading down so I put in the pages of 100 per page to make it load faster.
Dont recall the comments ever being separated by page markings?
I have family in the funeral biz. They haven’t been contacted by the health authority inquiring about cold storage capacity, yet. During the peak of the OD crisis, their business provided surge capacity. I’ll let you know if that changes.
China didn’t have the tests a month ago either.
They screened anyone going anywhere using a thermometer. Which we should have plenty of. The confirmed people at the hospital using a ct scan. Perfect is the enemy of good.
Testing will be subsidized/free in the US as well.
The private market will respond to those with money. Problem is, those without money will get infected and pass it on to those with money. Plenty of people have pointed out that the inequality of access to health care in the US is one of their biggest problems in containing this pandemic.
In Italy there are a number of people who were stuck in quarantine with deceased loved ones for two days. Funeral homes said were not equipped to pick the bodies up.
We do have a plan for this and a place to go for quarantine if needed, but I have not treated it as a serious option so far as it would involve leaving part of our family behind. Folks who are front-line medical workers. Hard to do.
We are doing a lot more than they were at this point in the curve. I’m pretty optimistic that we will substantially flatten the curve.
This is where the US has an advantage. Lots of big Pharma companies that can ramp up hard. The political leaders may be incompetent but don’t underestimate the power of the private market to respond.
I hope the BC CDC is open to private testing labs and isn’t trying to keep it all in their labs
Totoro: Perhaps it is time for you and your family to seriously consider self isolating totally for a few months. That might not be possible but it is worrisome.
It is nice of the WHO to suggest separating everyone but if this ramps up like Europe we dont have enough caregivers, facilities or even masks to isolate mild cases as well as the most seriously ill. Like in the past maybe the best we can do is isolate and quarantine whole families in their houses. I wonder if we will hear the old cry of “bring out your dead”?
I suspect that we are three to four weeks behind Italy or France. We are not even quarantining people coming from abroad in spite of knowing that no symptoms appear for about ten days when people are both infected and contagious. Most people will lie about being or having been sick since they dont want to miss their flight. (sorry that is human nature). The politicians basically want to appear like they are doing something without having to do it.
Many companies are adding big testing capacity, and improving speed. For example, Roche has a new approved test that can test 4,000 people per day for one machine, results in 4 hours. They already have 100 of these “Cobra 6800/8800 “machines in USA so once that’s running that’s 400k tests per day, just from Roche. Not sure if any machines like that are in Canada., but we should get some, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/roche-gets-clearance-for-coronavirus-test-that-s-10-times-faster
They have hinted that they don’t have the tests for that. Not sure what the issue is exactly but hopefully they solve it soon. I don’t find they’ve been that transparent about their testing capacity and tests conducted
The WHO issued a press statement yesterday. They said they have a simple message – social distancing is just not enough. Countries need to start testing everyone.
We are not doing this.
WHO also advises that even mild positives should be isolate away from home if possible. Places like gyms and stadiums.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—16-march-2020
We are not following these guidelines at all.
Totoro: Thank you for your offer of help, it is warmly appreciated. At some point I may take you up on it. At the moment we think we are okay. But your kindness is heartwarming.
My wife and I, both being rather high risk have discussed the fact that we might have to be self isolating for the rest of our lives.
Good thing that we really like each others company.
Marko – Construction sites should put in some safety measures at minimum, stagger break times, install cleaning stations and break up gatherings of people to ensure they are spread throughout the building, consider potential transmission risks if they have to work in close proximity. Management should assess the situation on a day to day basis, communicate potential risks to older workers, sites, subtrades and clients. There is already supply chain issues for some products and no strategy is being discussed if people are away from work. There was also one found case on a downtown site already with an individual over the ago of 60 coming back from overseas.
Check out worldometers.info for a different view of Coronavirus statistics. They divide the number of cases into active and closed cases. Closed cases being people who have recovered and those who have died. The mortality rate is 8% in this category. Active cases include people with mild symptoms and people who are serious/critical, many who will die. The people serious/ critical comprise 7% of active cases. Scary numbers.
French cases doubled over the last 72 hours to about 4,500. There have been 91 deaths, and 300 coronavirus patients are in critical condition — half of them under 60 years of age.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html
Perhaps Italian commentary explains the data change a bit? The first cases happened near hospitals and in nursing homes with many older people. Now the virus has spread to a wider segment of the population. I’m not sure.
Do you think they should shut down constructions sites or just put in better measures?
71 of 91 deaths in France have been over 75 yrs old and if mortality of ARDS is 47% something doesn’t add up……not enough information in that story….if there is a capacity issue it would make sense that you would fill up the ICU with the youngest patients. The older ones you would try to ventilate them on anesthetic machines in the OR or you just wouldn’t admit them to ICU in the first place.
Mortality is running approx 2% in France in line with other countries.
Sad state in the construction industry, all employees, sub trades and related parties are expected to show up on site and in office. Even sites with 200+ employees there is no proactive measures or self distancing and they have cancelled health and safety discussions before entering on site. Unfortunately the construction industry has always been very reactive and lacking leadership due to poor management skills and little to no education and critical thinking skills.
Yes, there will be deaths. It is about managing avoidable deaths and economic impacts. It will play out now and we will one day be looking back at it and judge the decisions by the data. I guess we will know then whether earlier crackdowns were worth it for a country.
I heard from news yesterday: “In France more than half of coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60, suggesting it’s not just the elderly at risk.”
There are businesses with 90% of employees now working at home, and the remaining 10% required to be working in the office “keeping the home fires burning” … (shipping product, maintaining servers etc.). If we move to a total shut down, this would mean stopping those 10% as well, killing the source of income for the company. If they aren’t interacting with anyone at work, it’s hard to see that it’s doing more harm than good to allow a small staff to keep a bigger company working. Maybe totally stopping for three weeks or so makes sense, but any longer than that will result in the 90% of home workers in that company getting laid off as well.
Yes. My understanding is that Britain plans to do this, for people over 70. I think it’s a great idea, and will keep those people out of hospital.
Interesting thought. Based on data so far 60+ would probably big good enough. Even <60 yr old and healthy doesn't seem to be a huge risk.
Closing the border to US citizens will have to be done carefully. I am not sure what percentage of goods is transported by truck and train by US citizens and vice versa. Shutting the border down without a plan could lead to shortages. Also some people living near the border work across the border as well.
I am all pro shut down to flatten the curve but after things stabilize deaths will have to be accepted to re-start the economy. The virus isn’t going to be eradicated…that is wishful thinking.
Might I suggest that the way to go is to make it mandatory for all persons over 50 or over 55 to self quarintine. Make arrangements for the army to deliver food to all such persons. Very few people under fifty get seriously ill or require vast medical resources. This would flatten the curve while allowing the economy to function.
I completely agree with VicInvestor1983…..you can’t quarantine/shut everything down for months on end. It would be like shutting down roads to prevent traffic deaths. Once the health care system is tested and stabilized restrictions will start coming off even if people are still dying from the COVID19.
I am sure that in approx three months they can setup 20 to 30 ventilators locally and call retired respiratory therapist like myself back to set up ventilators in the back room while the real ones handle the patients.
There will also be data in months to come where based on outcomes I am guessing some people won’t even go on a ventilator.
Based on VicInvestors1983 previous personal property description the only front line healthcare worker that could afford something like that is a doctor so you would hope he would know what he is talking about, somewhat 🙂
Complex equation as economic pain can lead to a cost in human lives too, here but especially in countries with fewer social supports. Many lives were lost in the great financial crisis.
Hope the government takes appropriate steps to support the most vulnerable during the shutdown.
Seems like a nonsensical perspective. We are not at that point yet. If we get to the point of overwhelm my money is that it will also mean complete shut-down. Do the shut-down first, pay the price, save the lives and the medical cost. At its base, if you ignore human rights and the value of life, my money would be on saving money overall if we can shut this down before Armageddon.
@ Leif
I’m a front line healthcare worker. I agree with you that we can’t at all deal with a huge influx of very sick patients. We have 65 ventilators in South Island! What I was saying is that we can handle it if the curve is flattened. But, you also have to understand that this is a balance between the economy and lives. At some point, we’ll have to accept some deaths to re-ignite the economy.
“Vancouver Island almost certainly skews older than the population examined in the CCDCP study, with the region being home to 47,270 over the age of 80. If that cohort is infected at a rate of 30%, 2,099 of them could be expected to die. If the infection rate is 70%, the number of fatalities rise among the 80-plus cohort rises to 4,897.”
That is a lot of older people who are exposed on the island.
@VicInvestor1983 you can’t possibly believe our hospitals can absorb this crisis? Look at Northern Italy, 300+ people dying a day now. Read the reddit and Twitter posts from doctors. They are beyond scary.
If they don’t shut down the US and Canada we are in for a world of hurt I’m afraid.
Agreed Leo S, but the province of BC should have taken the lead on this in BC on this imo as our geography is not the same in terms of risk.
Wonder what our cross border traffic volume is like these days. One imagines its dropped drastically already
it is just logical that we have community transmission going on Introvert. The world is interconnected by air. We had no quarantine in place for months while Canadians and visitors were entering Canada from infected areas. Much of the transmission will be from people who have mild or no symptoms and you can travel without symptoms and be contagious.
I don’t see another solution to stop overload but to shut sh*t down. First time I’ve sworn on HHV and I’m not a cusser.
C’mon people, put pressure on the government. TIme to stop balancing business impacts because they are going to be worse later, and the panic potential can be mitigated with solid leadership and facts. People can handle the truth if there is a plan to deal with it. They just need really clear direction. Trust me. The people who don’t want to comply will face severe social pressure if others just know what we need to do and the public messaging is clear. I am disappointed that we know what Italy, Iran and Spain are dealing with and we still haven’t taken enough action.
And stop saying it okay for Americans who live in a highly infected area just across our border to come here when the rest of the world is shut out. What the heck?
This too shall pass. I don’t think government will allow a prolonged economic stand-still. Think about it, you can’t let the global economy to collapse. Once it is known that the healthcare system can absorb the COVID patients, they will lift the incredible restrictions that have been implemented.
They aren’t always testing people that call in and report symptoms either. A nurse will call you if you meet the criteria in their automated telephone questionnaire, and ask how you’re doing. If you’re managing okay, they just tell you to stay home and take the precautions we’ve all heard. They only want to see you if you’re in a high risk category or are having trouble breathing.
I suspect the number of cases is much higher than official figures both for that reason, and also because at least some folks are not bothering with testing to begin with.
Location details about confirmed cases on Vancouver Island are being delayed or withheld by the province.
Speaking anonymously, health care worker in Campbell River confirms one person tested positive last Thursday, but staff have been told to keep quiet.
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1923131&binId=1.1180928&playlistPageNum=1
Hmmmm…..26 pending sales today and a shocked by a few of the offer delays this evening
“Hi Marko. Yes, 6 offers, a/o by March 19.”
Barrister – this is going to end. Most projections are at eight weeks of bad stuff that I can find if we take some SD steps now. Stay in the mansion! We have named our house the bunker and we have all sorts of hunker in the bunker plans. Give your house a name like pandemic party place! I can bring you and your wife goods if you need it – honestly no trouble. You may even discover my true identity – how exciting (might be a slight oversell). Or just keep in mind that lots of people care about what happens and this is also a chance to come together and do better than we have been doing on all sorts of things.
Good man!
One oddity in the compulsory self-isolation announced by Trudeau today. It is compulsory, but self operated and no fine or jail time for breaking it. A reporter asked Trudeau why no fine, and he said “well we don’t have police that can enforce it, so why bother”. That makes no sense to me.
Make it like Australia, a $5k-$50k fine and up to one year in jail for violating the self quarantine. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-15/coronavirus-quarantine-rule-prompts-wa-threat-of-$50,000-penalty/12057554
Of course Australia isn’t going to have police running around checking for violators, but like many things, the threat of fine/jail is enough for people to understand the importance of adhering to the quarantine. As it stands, someone in Canada could flagrantly violate the self quarantine with no repercussions possible.
Did bakery take-out today and saw a bit less but still fair amount “young” people in downtown areas/restaurants. This is probably our last “food-out” for a while (last restaurant meal was last Weds).
Finished visit with dental hygienist at 2pm today, before the service stop announcement, and loaded two big bottles (3L) of Rose wine afterwards. Have two months flour/pasta/rice/dry noddle/olive oil/balsamic vinegar plus 4 months can food for the cat at home, winter greens started shooting up in backyard garden …. With lots art books from UVic library, it is time for serious in home art projects …
BTW, we also did offer as designated shoppers for two elder single neighbours who don’t have children live nearby. It is probably a good idea if neighbours could help each other and have everyone covered this way.
TC and stay healthy everyone.
Hey, you’ve got us.
BCTF met with the province today to discuss the plan going forward. A formal announcement coming tomorrow, apparently.
If this thing does not burn out at some point then there are going to be a lot of elderly dead from this virus. What is life like if you have to self isolate for the rest of your life while dodging the virus.
Here’s an indication of what the stock market thinks about the RE market. The article linked below appeared in the G&M on Feb 25. On that day MIC closed at $56.75. Today it closed at $34.53.
Genworth MI Canada’s special-dividend streak makes its pricey stock worth a look
I’ve gone a couple times to stores. A few things with low stock but otherwise fine.
My strategy is to bring reusable bags, load them up in the store without using carts or baskets, then do my own packing at the till and throw the bags in the laundry at home. Maybe that’s paranoid but with elderly parents and in laws I’m not taking chances.
Also stocked up at the library today before it closes tonight. Gonna need to keep the kids entertained
The Dutch Prime Minister just addressed the nation and it sounds like their strategy is to slow down the virus not try and stop it. He mentioned by stopping it, this crisis could drag on longer. Letting it spread at a slow enough pace for the hospital’s to keep up seemed to be what they are aiming for.
Maybe Canada is following a similar approach knowing we won’t be able to stop the virus. That is maybe why they don’t seem as concerned about mass testing the way South Korea seemed to have “stopped” the virus.
I’m the designated once/week shopper for three families now.
I went to pick up ramen noodles and Chinatown was deserted. I also went to the grocery store, again wearing my disposable gloves, and was happy to see that staff were too. And for once I wasn’t the only customer staying six feet back. I even saw people disinfecting the cart handles. Several were wearing masks – all of Asian descent. I don’t want to get into a discussion on that because we just don’t have enough to go around here and front line workers need them more, but after all of this is over someone needs to shake up things about the scientific benefits of wearing one when YOU are sick.
But take heart, some individual behaviour is changing. This will catch on quick now, we just need more government action.
I drove along Wharf street this afternoon and there was a packed patio pub with people closely seated. I was surprised at not just the number of people there but also the number of people with grey hair. Social distancing is not likely to be effective when a large portion of the herd are idiots.
Great post James. Yes, testing and isolation are the most powerful tools available now that can stop it. I get mad when I hear the authorities explain the criteria for getting tested. Their only justification is that they don’t have enough tests. If they had infinite tests available they would test absolutely everyone, and keep repeating tests and that would lead to reduced spread. For example, the thermometer is a test, and there’s no criteria of who gets tested.
Some kid with a runny nose might have COVID-19 and spread it to all kinds of people, yet he would never qualify to be tested.
I’m with you James. The time is now. If you know anyone in charge of municipal decision-making ask them to shut it down – I have. The Monterey Center (a seniors activity center) was open as of this morning. Everything needs to shut down and people need to be ordered to stay home except for necessary trips to the grocery/pharmacy/doctor and workers who will need to keep working. Yes there will be economic consequences, but the economic consequences of not doing this early enough are far worse.
This is the point that people aren’t getting. It’s not going to be okay unless we actually do something about it, and we’re not currently doing enough. I’m not worried. I’m mad. I’m angry that people like you think it’s just going to be fine. It’s not. It really really isn’t unless people actually start doing something constructive. Panic buying toilet paper is clearly not it. Shutting down the country’s international travel to all countries except the country going through a epidemic just to the south of us, also isn’t the answer. So far there have been 2 things that have worked in slowing down transmission, and only in 2 countries that had localized epidemics. Wide scale rigorous testing of ANYONE with symptoms, or literally completely shutting down anyone’s ability to go anywhere or do anything along with wide scale testing. We are doing neither of these two things, and so we’re going to end up with a problem. That problem ends up with people dying, people I care about, again.
People post flu stats, 8000 people dying a week etc. We’re not even at 8000 total deaths. If you look at the numbers though, on the current trajectory, you’ll see we’re going to hit the 8000 a week pace by Wednesday. We’ll hit double the 8000 a week pace by Saturday. Then it doubles twice more by the end of this month, that’s 64000 people a week. Nearly ten thousand a day, by the end of March. Today was the start of governments around the world waking up to that reality. They still don’t get it, but it’s a start. Hopefully it slows it down, but we still have a baked in week at minimum of people who are sick that just don’t know it.
Probably less than you, but I think you can stop worrying about this whole thing. Humanity is going to be okay, James. And in all likelihood, so is your family and everyone you care about. We’re not going to convince each other, so let’s leave it for now.
By the way, I’m still confused – did you buy a home or did you not?
Influenza is a wide range of viruses.
It was also a pandemic 10 years ago with swine flu. Just not as fatal as the one in 1918.
How’s HIV going with the rise peak and fall into something that is what it is today? Malaria? How about the measles and polio and everything else that we’ve now got vaccines for? How did they do for hundreds of years? Did they just peter out and stop killing people? Or were they endemic in humans until we did something about it?
I get that you don’t think it’s realistic, but what do you really know on the subject?
Monday stats
Month Mar Mar
Year 2020 2019
Net Unconditional Sales: 337 640
New Listings: 595 1,284
Active Listings: 2,224 2,435
Testing is great and we need to ramp it hard.
But… in the end you won’t be likely to get it if you don’t get in contact with people and are very careful during times it is unavoidable. Radical testing is so important but I don’t think it’s the only approach that can flatten the curve
Yep, you got it. 🙂 And it’s not a matter of being certain, either. Unfolding of a pandemic is apparently one of the most difficult to predict dynamics in medicine. It just depends on so many things, a lot of which you and I don’t know or understand.
Having said that, people still get infected with the influenza virus all the time, but that’s distinct to a pandemic, something that might pose a systemic threat to a society. Influenza was a horror show pandemic a little over 100 years ago, but it’s not something that has kept the economy shut down since. It too saw infection rates rise, peak, and fall into something that made it what it is today. Saying that somehow won’t happen now, and it will go on and on and on, is almost akin to apocalypse, which I don’t think is realistic. It’s far from a reason to do nothing, but at the other end is where that unwarranted fear and panic creep in. That is what I rail against, not the virus.
You’re not going to have a perpetual pandemic, it eventually gets to a critical mass, peaks, then drops off to levels that don’t constitute a serious threat to the population. This clearly hasn’t peaked yet. It appears nearly certain as though it will get worse before it gets better, and yes, people are unfortunately going to die. But get better, it will. You don’t have to believe it, and that’s okay. At least you’re aware of what’s happening.
Because that’s what happens with all viruses? I mean, the flu has peaked, declined and lost all ability to create mass infection? Common cold?
How many other viruses do you know that have gone from 0 cases to 160 thousand in a few months? Lose the certainty. You don’t know.
ok local fool, I troll people because I feel like it. Did I say I had “official” access to state information? lol swim with or near the men in black? what does that even mean?
Anyways I am off to a Force Majeure meeting now, I am sure some of you would be familiar with that term in the near future. P.s. get your banking done 😉
Cute. Most people with privileged access to state information would never publicly disclose they have access to that info, let alone actually disclose what that information is. That’s why they have that access, and you don’t.
The defensive and flippant way you’re responding to Marko suggests that even if you had privileged access to state information, you don’t have the maturity to handle that information, so you wouldn’t have it for long. Dressing up your claims by saying, “I will not reveal my sources” is so cliched it’s almost cringe-worthy to read.
Even a junior policy analyst at Health Canada would be able to tell you what you’re reciting, and I don’t think it’s something that’s a big deal for them to tell you. It’s pretty basic stuff and if you want to share it, go for it – but don’t try to self aggrandize by subtly implying you swim with or near the men in black.
Here’s another freeby for you Marko, a major Canadian Bank will start closing half of their branches starting tomorrow.
Lol Marko, policy analysts?
Here is one more bullet confirmed from the leaked draft press release from last night. https://www.timescolonist.com/covid-19/three-new-covid-19-deaths-in-b-c-seven-new-cases-reported-on-vancouver-island-1.24098933
“Hospitals will cancel elective surgeries and only emergency and urgent procedures will be performed, she said.”
There are positive cases of Covid-19 in Victoria that have not yet been publicly reported. There seems to be a significant lag between positive test result and media release.
Didn’t know policy analysts had Trudeau’s direct line.
On the bright side…
It’s probably not a good time to try to offload dufflebags full of filthy lucre.
Teranet index for Victoria declined less than 10% from its peak in 2008 to its bottom in 2009 and was back to the 2008 peak in 2010, with a slight decline over the years until the latest runup started in 2016.
So do I think there’s a good chance of seeing worse that that? Yes, not the least because interest rates were so much higher and household debt so much lower at the start of 2008. Today’s market has become hooked on the medicine from the FC, and I don’t think it will work as well again.
Great article on what covid-19 could do to real estate.
I would be surprised if, past spring break, Victoria schools were to close until September, as Alberta was said to be considering. But if it did happen, imagine all the university/college student rentals and homestay student incomes that would poof right out of existence for many months.
It isn’t hard to picture that a fair number of Victoria families are in the 25% that depend mainly on tourism/hospitality jobs that may suddenly go away, but also pay the bills for a home that would have otherwise been too expensive through homestay students or university/college renters. Ouch.
Patriotz: Maybe I missed it but your article does not seem to mention the number of cases now on the island. The chart is from a few days ago; is there an updated one?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-bc-bonnie-henry-livestream-march-16-1.5499192
I’ve changed my mind too, from probably not to I don’t know. Some things are changing too quickly for me to follow logically now.
Do we know how many cases on the island at this moment.
’tis but a flesh wound – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
Patrick said: “Trudeau announces borders closed to non-citizens”
To paraphrase some criticism of the U.S. stopping European flights, would have made so much more sense to lock the doors of the house before we all know the killer was already inside.
Trudeau announces borders closed to non-citizens (except Americans). Well done! This should have been done sooner, but still a helpful move now. After weeks of saying a travel ban is no help, he (finally) announces a travel ban, and explains how important and beneficial it is.
Well put, thanks.
This is the conundrum faced by all governments: How do you keep the economy going without infecting a large amount of people so the healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed. It is a very delicate balancing act and almost impossible to finesse given how fast the virus is spreading.
I suspect Trudeau is having a last minute change of mind and will implement even more strict measures than what they planed over the weekend, hence the delay.
Congratulations Leo, I believe this is the best report that you’ve ever written. It should go national. More to say after work.
Perhaps a better term would be when it passes. It will pass, but it will be very serious in the meantime.
Funny I wrote the part about there being no sign yet the impact on real estate will be as bad as the great financial crisis but it’s possible on Saturday. Now I’m thinking it’s likely to be as bad or worse. No one was stopping people from going out during the financial crisis. the huge wildcard is whatever they put out there to avoid people having to sell their homes during the acute period.
It’s a very fine line to walk between alarmism and downplaying the issue
I am still disappointed at myself that my “game over” call was off by two weeks. Once again I underestimated the ignorance of the general public…….
Many people in hot markets who bought a PR in the last 3 years seem to think it is primarily an investment.
Live feed for upcoming federal action on the pandemic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oUbUru-krE
And yes, it is supposed to be a draft leaked press release by one of the big news agencies in the country privy to what the feds are thinking. Just heard Cayman Island will be shutting down all Incoming air traffic on Thursday and outbound traffic on Sunday with the exception of Cargo and Supplies.
True, but most of the stuff described in ks112’s post is happening in Europe already. So it is predictable that similar stuff will happen in Canada and the US over the next few weeks as the outbreaks in North America are a week or two behind Europe.
Italy and Spain – schools and universities closed, all non-essential stores shut down. People are forbidden to leave their homes for most reasons other than essential work or buying groceries
Switzerland – same thing except we are still allowed to go outside for a recreational walk or bike ride so far
France – Macron addressing the nation tonight. Expected to announce mobilization of the army and Italy Spain style lockdown along with a curfew
Austria – army mobilizing, gatherings of more than 5 prohibited, borders closed or restricted with Germany, Italy and Switzerland
Borders closing or being restricted throughout Europe
haha. Nope, blow over means this issue will peak, decline, and eventually lose its ability to create mass infection. I don’t think anyone is saying it’s nothing, because that clearly isn’t the case. Even for me, I’ve been stuck in my house for almost a week, and it sucks. But panic and fear mongering isn’t helpful, and people are very prone to that. 🙂
I have large holdings in the stock market and I’d be quite happy to see a further decline. I did well buying during the FC and I’m prepared to have another go.
Korea is testing 10 thousand people a day.
BC is still telling people that they can’t be tested if they haven’t travelled. Canada didn’t test their own prime minister when his wife has the disease.
Which do you think is more likely to actually slow this down?
You’re basing this on nothing but a whim. It’s like saying housing will continue to go up because that’s what it’s always done. Blow over suggests it’ll be nothing, which is consistently the message you’ve put out here. That it’s all smoke and mirrors and media induced panic. You’re wrong.
To those who asked who my source is in the last thread I am not disclosing that. Due to the nature of my profession I have some contacts at the highest level of business and government in the country and I am given information from time to time that is not publicly available.
To those who are still holding on to their stocks, good luck. To those who are trying to buy a house right now, don’t be so quick to close.
@totoro that video was very well done. Really hit home.
There is a big difference between taking measures to avoid defaults and encouraging lenders to make new mortgage loans at historically high RE prices. The Feds did encourage new lending in 2008/9, but prices had been falling for months beforehand and household debt was far lower than today.
Don’t know exactly what you mean by “mom and pop investors”, but there has always been a lot more people owning stocks than investment (i.e. non principal residence) properties. Not hard to understand why – no minimum outlay.
Well, we’ll apparently find out in about an hour. They are doing some kind of announcement then. However, it’s looking a little like the monetary and fiscal measures that they are taking to reassure people is in some sense having the opposite effect – both in terms of how serious the economic implication is, as well as fears that there may be little else further that they can do.
Fear is fickle though, so who knows. When this blows over (yes James, it will 🙂 ) it will be a better gauge as to the effects of whatever policy moves are chosen. Right now people are just too frightened to respond normally.
True. We’ll have to wait and see what measures the feds and BoC might take to reassure lenders.
Thanks Totoro. And the graphic artist at the Capital is very imaginative!
Perhaps, what matters though is whether RE feels safe to a lender.
Perhaps it’s just me but The Capital does not load correctly in my android Chrome browser and I am unable to read this article.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_cImRzKXOs&fbclid=IwAR0lmdo2N7xC1jRpTXQU3GHEdJ_32J98T8une0r-cWCBkiEgvUFFRF4IXs4
Once the coronavirus has been put in the rearview mirror, I’d wager that RE will again be the first choice for most mom and pop investors. The gyrations of the stock market in the last couple of weeks will not be quickly forgotten. Depends on interest rates; if the Covid19 recovery ignites inflation, rates might have to go up faster than anticipated. Having never lived through a market cycle like the last 12 years, capped off by a global crisis, it’s difficult to imagine the wide range of possible outcomes. Scared people crave security though, and RE feels safe to a big segment of the population.
Excellent job on this article Leo S. I really appreciated not just the information, but also the reasonableness of it all. And that graphic!