Mar 23 Market Update
One week of coronavirus isolation down, four to who knows how many left to go. Of course I have no special knowledge about how long this situation will last, but it seems clear that our health care system is nowhere near ready to handle a large surge of cases that we’ve seen in other countries, so it’s clear we need to bring the hammer down hard and fast or face pandemonium. Public health voices are getting stronger about the need to enforce social distancing rather than just asking for it. While I think most people are following the recommendations well, it would not surprise me in the least if we saw a shelter in place order to prohibit all but essential errands come down before the end of the week. Following Italy’s footsteps is by no means inevitable. We know that it is possible to return to a mostly functioning society because other countries are doing it, the only question is whether we can do the same.
With the course of the virus in Canada up in the air it’s impossible to know whether the real estate market will lock up, or simply slow down. We know from other markets that during a full outbreak the market basically grinds to a complete halt, but with successful management of the virus situation, there is no reason that real estate sales cannot continue at a lower level. Much of the research for buying a home is done online anyway. Open houses which are now cancelled are not essential, and showings can be done with minimum risk by screening buyers and enforcing physical distance. Many sellers will prefer to wait of course, but I think sufficient sales activity could be maintained to avoid the situation where the must-sellers outnumber the buyers and push prices into rapid decline.
So far, the market has slowed down in a relatively orderly fashion, turning around from a very hot market with a peak of over 50% more activity than a year ago to an approximately 20% drop in sales over the course of 10 days. Some people may be surprised at the gradual nature of the slowdown, but it mirrors the increasing concern in the general populace about the seriousness of the situation, so it makes sense that buyers and sellers gradually put their plans on hold rather than all at once. Also consider that some buyers are in situations where they’ve sold their previous home and must find their next home before the sale completes.
In the end though, whether the market locks up temporarily or not is a secondary concern. A full lockdown cannot last for more than a few months even in the worst case (runaway infections resulting in eventual herd immunity). The bigger wildcard in terms of real estate impact is unemployment. We don’t have complete data yet, but by all accounts the number of newly unemployed is truly staggering. The Prime Minister mentioned 500,000 applications for employment insurance last week. To put that into context, here are the monthly applications for employment insurance going back to 2007 and an extremely conservative estimate for March numbers (normal levels + 500k). Actual full month data will almost certainly exceed a million applicants.
The big question again is how long it will last. If we bring it under control quickly many of these jobs will immediately return and the net impact will be comparatively minor (the tourist season is done regardless, but most everyone else will be back at work). If we drop the ball and severe economic disruption continues for many months, then some of those jobs will take much longer to return. The 2008 financial crisis caused an additional ~1.1 million EI claims over 2.5 years, and it appears this time we may hit the same number in a single month.
Either way you can safely forget my January warning about rising prices this year.
Some thoughts on the bear market
The stock market continues it’s relentless march downward, with the TSX and the Dow both down by a third (and likely down further by the time you read this). I mentioned last week that a simple balanced portfolio with regular contributions recovered surprisingly quickly even in the face of 50% declines in the stock market during the Great Financial Crisis, but either way the declines can be frightening while they’re happening. There’s no doubt that this isn’t the same as the financial crisis, and there is no shortage of people saying it’s different this time and we can’t generalise the past to the future.
However it’s important to remember that the very fact that it’s different this time makes it similar to previous bear markets. 2008 was very different than previous crashes and as pillars of Wall Street literally went to zero it was hard not to believe that the entire system was unravelling. The dot com burst and 9/11 were different, as was Black Monday, the wild inflation of the early 80s, and the oil crisis. If it wasn’t different every time there wouldn’t be any market crashes. It is the fear of the different that causes these crashes in the first place.
Anyone investing in the stock market should be fully expecting their investments to drop by a third on a regular basis. You don’t get those outsized returns for free. As always this is not financial advice, but if you’re interested I recommend reading the excellent stock series by JL Collins.
Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| March 2020 |
Mar
2019
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 165 | 337 | 468 | 640 | |
| New Listings | 307 | 595 | 840 | 1284 | |
| Active Listings | 2172 | 2224 | 2254 | 2435 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 54% | 57% | 56% | 50% | |
| Sales YoY Change | +13% | +17% | +4% | ||
| Months of Inventory | 3.8 | ||||
Month to date sales still 4% above the level of last March due to the extremely strong start to the month, but with the way things are going we will likely end up down about 10% by the end of the month (drop in sales offset a little bit by an additional business day this year).
Monday numbers: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/30/the-must-sellers
I’d been under the impression that Canada wouldn’t experience the ‘jingle mail’ phenomenon, due to mortgages being of the full recourse variety except in a couple of provinces. Turns out that isn’t entirely true…
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/heres-how-canadians-could-walk-away-from-their-homes-if-house-prices-fall/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
My stock broker doesn’t stop taking sell orders when the market is falling.
The job of the realtor is to assist people to sell their properties – for an awful lot more than the $9.99 my stock broker charges – not to try to keep prices from falling.
I should also point out that there are always enough buyers. It just depends on the price.
Cam – PS – good luck, I hope you find a buyer at your preferred price point.
If your realtor doesn’t want to list your place, and you see demand out there, why don’t you just find another realtor that will list it? They’re supposed to be “working for you”, and get paid well for it.
Hire a different realtor. You could try to beat whatever it is will happen in the market several months from now, and after all you don’t have to take any offer you don’t like. If you wait a few weeks as you’re told, and prices have already started to go down, will the realtor that told you to do that pony up the difference? Of course not.
Make a decision that’s good for you, not one that’s supposedly good for the broader market inventory number.
Cam said:
“the realtor we got the market valuation from, told us to wait for a few weeks to see what the market is doing”
So, your realtor doesn’t want you to add to to inventory when the number of buyers is dwindling.
I’m confused, why would your original point be, “Those that are ready to buy are obviously finding this situation frustrating”? Only because you had two answers to your Craigslist ad?
Seems to me that those that are ready to sell, and especially those that are desperate to sell, are the ones that should find the situation especially frustrating.
Those that are ready to buy get no pleasure from the tragedy going on, but the plain fact is that high sudden unemployment and economic catastrophe the likes of which we haven’t seen in our entire lives should be making sellers waaaay more nervous and frustrated than buyers.
Sellers are facing possible falling prices, piling up inventory (whether listed yet or not), and certainly no reason for rising prices anytime soon.
Several people have recently posted on this very site that they’re ready to buy but holding back for several months to see what happens. I assure you that is far less frustrating than the unfortunate position sellers are in.
“I thought real estate agents were part of the many professions just declared an essential service in BC. How many realtors turned you away from listing your cabin on MLS? ”
Believe it or not, the realtor we got the market valuation from, told us to wait for a few weeks to see what the market is doing when we asked her whether we should list now or not. So, we thought we’d see what happens. Glad we did !
It doesn’t if the hospital is overloaded.
Pretty easy when you only test people who have traveled (or have come into contact with a confirmed case) and you’ve shut down travel.
Cam said: “Those that are ready to buy are obviously finding this situation frustrating.”
I thought real estate agents were part of the many professions just declared an essential service in BC. How many realtors turned you away from listing your cabin on MLS?
We were pondering selling our lakefont cabin at Shawnigan this spring so just to see what would happen, listed it on Craigslist Friday. Two showings booked! Those that are ready to buy are obviously finding this situation frustrating.
BBC News – Coronavirus: Mercedes F1 to make breathing aid
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002
I know it is not a ventilator, but seems pretty impressive to retool from building cars to building a medical device in such a short amount of time.
BC health authorities don’t seem to give updates on Sundays. Good for them to take a day off, so they don’t get burnt out.
Any update on hospital admissions on the island today?
I don’t either but I think they’re probably going to have to at least try something like it. You can’t just open up everything at once, and you can’t keep everything closed either. Enough people in the population are probably infected to keep infections going at a low level, allowing mass infections to ramp up again when restrictions and fear are relaxed – then we resume restrictions, like a yo-yo. This could continue until enough of the population is immune, or, a vaccine is developed. Wouldn’t know what the implementation of a half measure would look like, but hospital capacity like you said is probably among the least imperfect ways.
A good thing about this situation is it will compel countries around the world to be better prepared for something like this in the future. Having waited 100 years for this to occur again, the notion of “pandemic” became more of an abstract concept, which I have no doubt has cost lives. In the preceding years funding to all kinds of government bodies and NGOs designed to help with this sort of thing, have been slashed and trashed left, right and centre. Oops.
For some of us, who may not have enjoyed crowds to start with, covid has added an additional factor that may not go away easily. My guess is that psychological disorders like agoraphobia will rise for those who have experienced this. On the positive, hand washing is going to get set in the minds of younger folks so maybe overall rates of transmissible illnesses will decline.
Italy doing a good job flattening the curve now.
Yeah I floated that theory as well a few days back. Thing is that balance is likely too tricky to pull of in reality because the steering wheel is so laggy. You relax restrictions until cases are rising faster to use up substantial hospital capacity, then you clamp down but it doesn’t turn around for 2 weeks. I don’t have any confidence we can pull that off.
Perhaps better to get cases really low, then carefully open up businesses again based on their risk profile and monitor cases closely. We’ve seen other countries successfully do this.
Leo S said: “BC is doing pretty well on growth rates.”
Since it is simply not possible for us to all wait at home another year until a vaccine is ready, what is BCs optimal growth rate such that our healthcare system is never overwhelmed, but we are developing herd immunity as quickly as possible?
If 60-70% of the population is going to get the virus regardless, isn’t it bad for the growth rate to be too low?
I don’t know what too low a growth rate is for BC, but having the lowest growth rate in Canada makes me wonder if BC will unnecessarily prolong the pain.
That’s what I thought back in the 1980’s. That’s when Vancouver was littered with half-finished and rotting RE projects and unemployment was over 10% for years. You know what followed.
Sure, right now I wouldn’t take the bus either. But once it’s past I don’t see a problem.
Maybe. I’m just telling you my view at the moment. Places where many people gather with no clear sanitation controls or ability to keep distance all of sudden seem not too good of an idea. I would likely feel different if different controls were in place, but they are not here.
Talk about throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Hong Kong has great public transit and very good coronavirus control at the same time. It’s not transit that’s the problem.
This experience has already changed how I perceive the world.
Public transportation seems like a risk not worth the environmental benefit – I’d rather my kids ride their bikes. I am less inclined to travel by air than I was. One of my kids had a fellowship opportunity to study in the US which seems unlikely to happen now. They are having their own reactions and realizing, among other things, that their longer-term job prospects may be altered.
As far as living on the edge, if this doesn’t change things then what will?
Having seen the impact this virus is having, I expect we will be better prepared next time, but, after reading more, I do expect there will be a next time. Preppers always seemed paranoid to me, and to some extent still do, but I see the peace of mind value in having a place away from others and the ability to be somewhat self-sufficient for a period of time.
BC is doing pretty well on growth rates.
I dunno. Even with the $2000/month + provincial assistance it is a pretty big shock to lose your higher income and suddenly realize how dangerous that $500/month car payment is and how your cash flow negative rental condo is actually a big liability without an emergency fund.
This will be a wakeup call for many.
Hope they don’t get bailed out. But yes I’m sure even if they all go bankrupt someone will buy them up and resurrect them shortly.
What an needless tragedy. So sad.
Thomas Schaefer, the finance minister of Germany’s Hesse state, has committed suicide apparently after becoming “deeply worried” over how to cope with the economic fallout from the coronavirus, state premier Volker Bouffier said on Sunday.
Schaefer, 54, was found dead near a railway track on Saturday. The Wiesbaden prosecution’s office said they believe he died by suicide. “Today we have to assume that he was deeply worried,” said Bouffier, a close ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel. “It’s precisely during this difficult time that we would have needed someone like him,” he added.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/german-state-minister-kills-coronavirus-hits-economy-200329165242615.html
Have to agree with this….I am predicting within 2 years everyone is back to destroying the earth rather than saving. Air lines will bounce back….I wouldn’t be surprised if the cruise industry bounced back as well. People have a short memory especially if a downturn doesn’t involve hunger.
Interesting that 12% of serious COVID cases are under 40 years of age. Even more interesting that the percentage of obese people under 40 who have been heavy smokers for at least 10 years is roughly the same percentage. I wonder if there’s a connection.
Doubt it. I’m not knocking all the income assistance and loan deferral that’s happening now (it’s needed to prevent an even more severe downtown), but it’s giving the message that you don’t need to save against emergencies.
People who lived through the Great Depression did turn out to be savers, because that kind of assistance didn’t happen then.
I think higher interest rates are best incentive to get people to save.
But wouldn’t “hospitalization” also include people there just for overnight monitoring? If you have a 25 yr old in emerg that that is positive and has shortness of breath you probably aren’t sending them home out of fear that they might deteriorate. You’ll keep them in emerg or on the ward so they are close to ICU need be.
It goes both ways.
You’ve done nothing but minimize this from the start. So excuse me for not taking your advice.
I actually get less stressed from knowing. That’s why I research, to understand.
Keep your head in the sand, and keep telling people they won’t be affected by it.
News flash. Look at your life. You’re already affected by it.
Exactly. Which is why I’ve been trying to tell people to wake up to reality. Despite the “low” chances that you might die from this, they’re lower still if YOU actually take this seriously. Every time you minimize it, you’re bringing us one step closer to what’s happening in NYC. We can shut shit down now, and end up with very minimal cases, or we will be forced to shut it down when hundreds of people are dying from it daily. You’re in camp 2. If people like you didn’t exist, we’d be where NZ is. Shutting it down much earlier (and harder), and they’ll end up with much better & quicker results.
You’re literally increasing everyone’s risk, including your own.
FYI: minimal symptoms include anything you don’t have to be hospitalized for. There are people who can barely get up to pee but will be included in the minimal symptoms category.
Wonder if this event will train an entire generation to be savers. With a substantial percentage of the population being on furlough/laid off I suspect we’ll see a lot more realization of the value of a 3-6 month emergency fund. Could put a dent into consumer spending for many years
“and 30 per cent of those cases are under 40 years old.”
It’s 12%. They issued a correction today.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-people-under-40-account-for-nearly-one-third-of-hospitalized-covid-1/
My friend who works in bankruptcy in Vancouver has been very busy for the past month and the firm expects to get even busier. Hard to imagine there won’t be some fall-out in the housing market in the short-term at least.
Also, the stats for Canada are that seven per cent of the 4,757 COVID-19 cases so far have required hospitalization — and 30 per cent of those cases are under 40 years old.
Finally…..I’ve been bitching about this for so many years. The time and cost I’ve spent at Island Blue Print for municipal crap is ridiculous when simply sending a PDF would have done.
Hopefully the pandemic clears house of some other complete municipal non-sense.
https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/03/28/as-the-central-bank-rate-plunges-some-consumers-are-paying-higher-interest-on-their-mortgages.html
Interesting site for the US – projects around 80k deaths by August and specific peaks and numbers for each state vs. available beds/equipment. Wish we had this for Canada: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Amazing what is possible, just takes a little pandemic.
From the city of Victoria
“ Effective immediately, all Development and Building Permit Applications for the City of Victoria can now be accepted online. I am so impressed by our planning staff department for making this transition so quickly. This includes rezonings, development permit, heritage alteration permit, temporary use permit, and variance applications as well as building, plumbing, electrical and sign permit applications. More information here. This online processing of application will not only help building in the city continue, it will also help tradespeople to keep their jobs.”
https://www.victoria.ca/EN/main/residents/planning-development/development-services/application-forms-and-information.html
That’s not a compromise as much as it’s just a nice thing to do. We all have our own personal battles we’re fighting, and sometimes the simplest of gestures can make someone’s entire day. 🙂
Aside from reducing your risk, whether or not you get it really isn’t up to you. And you probably will, if you haven’t already. Not trying to push your buttons, really. I can’t imagine the torment you are putting yourself through with all your analysis. You honestly sound scared to death, in a hopeless, angry, dreading kind of way. What does any of it change for you, other than make a genuinely stressful situation more stressful? Nothing. Not worth it, my friend. 🙂
Can I offer a compromise for everybody?
It’s always a good idea to offer thanks to anybody whose help has made your day (or life!) even a little bit better or easier.
I don’t care if it’s your heart surgeon or your dog groomer, everybody can use positive feedback when it’s warranted. Yes, I know they’re all already paid for what they do. As a bonus, you never know when someone is already having a stressful, crummy day (I had a bank teller tell me how much my simple words helped cheer her up after a series of rude clients)
If they went out of their way, make it heartfelt, tell them why you appreciate it. Obviously they already know why, but you saying it really proves you noticed why and appreciate it was especially helpful.
All this goes double at work for your coworkers, and especially if you are a supervisor/boss.
Sold Out, ks112, Josh..
I think you guys are missing the point of the original conversation.. when doing a job that needs to exist and contributed something to society, Marko received no gifts for doing his job (maybe he wasn’t very good at mind you).
But as a real estate agent, doing a job that by no means needs to exist.. he not only makes way more money, but then people have the stupidity to give him a gift for doing his job…
I know a bunch of you here get your jollies comparing Covid-19 to the flu, but after reading how people die from it (in short: you drown in your own blood). It sounds like one of the worst deaths imaginable. Sign me up for not doing it the herd immunity way. I don’t care if it’s a 2 in 10000 chance that someone my age dies from it. Fuck that.
Also. 525 deaths in the states today. They might make a thousand a day before the end of the month. Lunacy.
I remember once I discovered an error in the financial model on the deal our team was working on at 8:30 pm (12 hours into my shift with no sleep) called the I banker advising us on the deal to tell them this and then gave the heads up to legal counsel drafting the agreement. Worked with the I bank to come up with the revised numbers, triple checked the model again and coordinated with legal counsel to have another turn of the agreement by next day. At 12:30 am went home, no thanks from anyone. No note from the PM, nothing.
As someone who spent 20 years scaling third floor balconies, being threatened with edged weapons, getting spat at, bitten, punched, kicked, and felt up, the only time I received a commendation was for doing absolutely nothing at a sh#t show of a rescue from a house hit by a landslide. The emergency services present behaved poorly, fought with one another, and saved 0 lives, but Gordon Campbell sent us all a nice piece of paper.
Perhaps the complaint about not being able to sleep on the job was ill- considered. Sounds like a fireman.
LeoS,
I’m wondering if someone hacked your account to post and praise a chart like that and pass it off as “case fatality rates”. You should see the obvious problems measuring fatalities as total current deaths divided by total current cases. If you don’t, read this short Lancet explanation. In reality the case fatality rates are much higher, 5.7% of diagnosed cases overall according to Lancet. Of course we all hope that asymptomatic/unreported cases will lower it, but that’s not what they are measuring in that flawed chart of diagnosed cases that you posted.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
“ We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.”
Please tell us Josh what you’ve ever done that compares?
Time to mount my sad, ornery little horse…
Regardless of your two’s budding bromance, I don’t think that was the point of the post. Social and health care work is some of the most important work out there, and at the front line level it’s also among the least appreciated. You can say, “it’s their job, so what” etc, but these people are human just like everyone else, and it’s nice to have positive acknowledgement from time to time. But that’s not what often happens.
Health care workers on the front lines are not only rarely acknowledged positively, but often times in that field, a job well done comes back to you in the form of a “fuck you”, “I’m going to kill you/your family”, spitting at you or just just generally treating you however they feel like – because they believe they can or can’t help themselves. You should see what health care workers go though working with someone on speed that they’re in the process of certifying. They would seriously rip you to pieces if they could. It can be terrifying.
I was in that line of (social) work for 7 years and I know how that feels, and anyone who was , knows precisely what I’m talking about. It sucks, and to stay grounded you have to look inside yourself to see the bigger picture of why you’re there. For me, I couldn’t go back to it. Just, ugh. Too much.
Until you’ve been in that line of work, lived it and experienced it, you might not realize that wanting to be treated well is not akin to wanting some ridiculous participation trophy. Whether you like him or not, he does have a point. Had that person he referenced been you or someone you loved that he helped save your life, I think that might offer you a perspective that would inhibit you making such a cocky and ignorant remark.
(Gets bucked off by my horse)
Aww, did they run out of participation trophies?
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_March_27_final.pdf
It shows the total ever in hospital and ICU per health authority, but not current. 8 hospitalized and 3 in ICU on the island.
Does anyone know how many are in hospital on the island or in Victoria.
Maybe Mexico will pay for Trump’s border wall after all. They may want it to keep US citizens out.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656
I’m not talking about fresh grad, but highly skilled specialists with decades of experience and expertise. IMO, quality education trump education quantity, let a lone highly work experienced MDs. Odd, that Canadian med students do not have all the educations or experience don’t have to take “standardized” exam such as the MCCEE to qualify for residency. And, I’m sorry the late Dr. Radin and many of his peers do not hold the same view as you.
Considering that junior doctors in the UK are, on average, 21 years old and have what would be considered in Canada only a bachelor’s degree there is a reason the degree is not directly transferable. It is much harder to get into medical school in Canada than it is in many countries, we have a standardized licensing exam, and the path to becoming a doctor is much longer.
Again, pass the required exams here and go to one of: Saskatchewan (SIPPA), Manitoba (MLPIMG) or Nova Scotia (NSPRAP). Or, pass the exams and apply for residency knowing your chances are lower, particularly if you have a strong accent as it may be difficult in the clinical assessment to get a great result, which is maybe as it should be.
And it is not just foreign-born doctors that can’t practice in Canada. Canadians who train abroad can’t either and have to go through the same steps. About 3/4 of Canadians who study medicine abroad do so because they couldn’t get into medical school here.
I’m sorry that it is off topic, but it seemed as if environmentalists tend/want to silence anyone that do not agree with their views.
I agree that not all training are equal, however even doctors and nurses that trained in the UK still have to go through the same exams and residency requirements as the rest of the immigrants to practice in Canada eventhose they are part of the Commonwealth. And, often these immigrant physicians are experienced, more educated, and are at the top of their class, but still they are treated as second class citizens.
The father inlaw of my sister was a great Canadian surgeon that was sent by Canada to London England to studied specialized surgical procedures that wasn’t available in Canada, but highly qualified experienced doctors who graduated from that same school in London still have to go through the outsider exams and residency if he/she want to practice medicine in Canada. And, in the meantime bottom of the barrel Canadian medical students still get precedent over highly skilled foreign trained. I personally would rather get work on by highly skilled doctors regardless of where they took their studies than a second rate Canadian surgeon who barely passed their schooling (apologies…not all Canadian doctors are second rate.)
Dr Steve RADIN – http://www.yourlifemoments.ca/sitepages/obituary.asp?oId=377555
Banks matched the full 1.5% drop in overnight rates. https://www.ratespy.com/coronavirus-mortgage-update-march-27-032712808
Variable discount from prime is basically completely evaporated though.
@QT. Fossil fuel industry is massively subsidized through direct tax cuts but more so by externalized health and environmental costs. Off topic though so please move to vibrantvictoria or another forum.
I guess your point is health care is a huge expense? I would still rather have more nurses than BC Housing employees.
Highly doubt spec tax department covers their costs as collectors, BC Housing owner builder certaintly doesn’t. I know two people making 6 figures that were moved to spec tax department to answer phone calls. Rather have an extra nurse or two.
That being said when hospitals are at full capacity we will sleep well at night knowing owner builders had to write an exam to build their homes.
Other than for me personally I’ve always done better in slower markets. 2019 was a solid drop in sales and my income went up 30-40%. When things are slow/dropping I get a lot more phone calls because of my lower commissions (sellers have less equity) and I do much better with buyers. I struggle pushing buyers in multiple offers….2016 I found to be burtal. One in 15 offers I wrote up were accepted that year.
This week I’ve had three sales even with things completely cratering.
Not to mention we will likely go from 1400 to 1000 realtors in the next 12 months so less competition.
And if the average house drops from 900k to 800k very minor impact on income.
The fact is that all medical or other professional training programs are not equal. Those that immigrate to Canada who were ex. engineers, doctors or lawyers in their home country which are not assessed as having equivalent training should not be granted licenses without equivalency examinations and interim supervised practice such as a residency or articling position.
For foreign doctors, the issue is that there are only so many residency positions in Canada. I have zero issue with giving preference to Canadian graduates who speak English fluently and have gone to medical school here. However, if a foreign doctor who is not from a listed medical school accepted by Canada as equivalent to Canadian training passes all the Canadian medical exams, clinical testing, and language tests, I agree there ought to be a way to assist them with a supervised practice of some type other than a residency in order to get licensing.
It appears Saskatchewan (SIPPA), Manitoba (MLPIMG) and Nova Scotia (NSPRAP) all have this type of program in place for foreign doctors.
Not true, since tax collectors raise more money. Anyway, how about checking out the total spending on BC housing employees (note: not spending on housing, that’s different) and the spec tax collectors, compare it to what the province spends on health care, and report back to us.
If I made more money the higher RE prices got, I would likely have the same view.
I know of only a few instance that health care workers sleeping in their cars between shifts, but hot bunking is a normal situation in Vietnam where health care workers often share a bed, and in emergencies or crises they even sleep on the floor in their offices or hallways.
Unlike most countries in the world, Canada do not have a shortage of physicians but a shortage of money.
Internationally Trained Medical Doctors in Canada – https://aipso.webs.com/
“Why are you unable to work as a doctor in Canada? There is no money to pay you – it has nothing to do with your competence. IMDs have passed every exam required and still been denied a license to practice. Now we know why!
If you are a foreign doctor planning to immigrate to Ontario and Canada – know that it is over 94% (ninety-four percent) likely that you will NEVER EVER be able to practice medicine again.”
And my wife is one of many among the 7000 plus invisible internationally trained medical doctors in Canada with out a career or voice.
I’m sorry but you failed at reading the IMF disclaimer on the paper that you cited.
“Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.”
The true is in the pudding.
The “subsidies” that the fossil fuel industry supposedly getting are not direct cash/funding that enviro schemes are currently enjoying, but from corporate income tax break as shown below, and 97% of the tax break was from following government directive and regulations that the government imposed upon the industry. The government forced the fossil fuel industry to become more environmentally friendly and move to clean/more efficient/carbon capture technology through the so call “subsidies”, other wise the industry would be tax at a higher bracket. (Similar to ICE cars emission deal in California $5.50 USD per 0.1 mpg under the standard plus the gas guzzler tax, hence manufacturers tries to achieve emissions as close to the standard or better to avoid paying the taxes on the ongoing moving goal post.)
“The government has a broad range of programs that provide support to the fossil fuel sector. That support can be grouped into two main types: direct spending through various programs; and tax expenditures under the Income Tax Act, which represent the majority of financial support.
Based on the data that the government provided to us, the majority (97 percent) of direct spending to support the fossil fuel sector was for research and development, more than half of which related to clean technology. Other direct spending went to economic development activities. Total direct spending amounted to $508 million over the fiscal period 2007–08 to 2011–12. Extended over 30 years, this would represent a significant decline in direct spending support to the sector since the 30 years preceding our 2000 study of government support for energy investments…
The estimated costs of tax expenditures that Finance Canada was able to attribute specifically to the fossil fuel sector amounted to $1.47 billion over the fiscal period 2006–07 to 2010–11, primarily relating to the accelerated capital cost allowance for oil sands projects. This tax expenditure is being phased out over four years. A number of other tax expenditures are also being phased out over varying time periods. The estimated costs of tax expenditures attributable to the oil and gas, mining, and clean energy sectors as a whole amounted to about $2 billion…”
Chapter 4—A Study of Federal Support to the Fossil Fuel Sector – https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_201212_04_e_37713.html
United States vehicle emission standards – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_vehicle_emission_standards#Phase_1:_1994%E2%80%931999
Energy Tax Act – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Tax_Act#Gas_Guzzler_Tax
Cynic said: “All good. Will rebound quickly. Now is a great time to buy.”
Your sarcasm there won’t be obvious to people that haven’t read your previous postings.
There are plenty of real estate agents out there that will tell you it’s fine to buy right now.
If we going to throw around percentages then we need to compare apples to apples, and use EXACTLY the same methodology to calculate percentages.
The death rate percentages from COVID-19 are usually being based on sketchy information that compares deaths to known infections from hospital admissions. Everyone agrees that the COVID infection percentage rate will be much lower if we include the asymptomatic people who account for about 80+% of the people infected, yet the mild and asymptomatic cases are NOT included in the percentages. So, to compare apples to apples, when looking at the death rate from annual flu/influenza you need to follow EXACTLY the same method and ignore the mild/asymptomatic cases of annual flu/influenza and calculate based on deaths to hospitalizations for seasonal flu/influenza.
Refer to the official CDC numbers at link#1 below to use EXACTLY the same method to calculate the number of influenza/flu deaths yearly. For example in the 2018/19 flu season the number of hospitilizations (in USA) was 490,561 and deaths were 34,157. Simple math tells me that is a death rate of 7% of those sick enough to be admitted to hospital for common annual flu/influenza, NOT 1/10th of one percent.
The CDC makes an educated guess at the total people who probably had the flu each season but I didn’t use that number because no one uses the mild/asymptomatic COVID-19 cases when calculating the percentage of deaths.
The noise factor in calculating COVID-19 death rates is slowly dissipating as the weeks pass as shown in link#2 below from the Lancet Medical Journal. If you compare the Lancet calculated death rate of 5.7% for COVID-19 to the annual flu death rate of 7%, using the same methodology, then the annual flu is worse than COVID-19. Lancet is clear on their calculation methodology: quote:
Link#1
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Link#2
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
Love this site.
All good. Will rebound quickly. Now is a great time to buy.
Sales now down ~60% from peak 17 days ago. Note sales in last couple days partially estimated due to reporting delays.
That is my understanding of the modelling. First priority is not to have surge beyond capacity if you are past initial containment. However, if you want to get on top of this and not have it drag on for months with a continuing level of infection that cripples the economy you need comprehensive testing and mandatory isolation of test positives in separate locations – ie. probably not at home where they do not always follow the guidelines and where other family members are exposed. Sounds draconian, but it works, is not forever, and the economy can regain function more quickly.
At current pace. Looks like Monday/Tuesday.
Might hit a million before Trump opens everything back up at Easter.
Hard to say, since the not even New York seems to have enough testing. Like 50% of tests right now are coming back positive.
Health care workers not able/wanting to go home to families are looking for short term accommodations
This website connects property owners and health care workers, some of whom have been sleeping in cars apparently.
http://www.yyjlocalsforlocals.com/healthcare/
The background story is here:
https://www.vicnews.com/news/covid-19-health-care-workers-seek-alternative-housing-options-to-prevent-families-from-getting-sick/
And our testing rate is higher than most places. 7170/million which is 16th/94 places on this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
Also 2% positive rate for our testing indicates we’re not drastically undercounting. New York has a 32% positive rate.
We’re 2 months on from China shutting down an entire city.
Everywhere else aside from the US seems to have tests, and even the US does now in some states.
Yet here we are insisting that we don’t have local transmission and that’s why we can’t test everyone.
w/r to PPE. I’ve heard that the largest manufacturing hub for N95 masks was Wuhan. And the largest nasal swab manufacturer was based in Lombardy in Italy.
Just a personal story. My best friend and her family are in self-isolation as her husband’s co-worker tested positive and her husband was asked to self-isolate. She called her doctor’s office to ask what self-isolation meant and the nurse told her that her husband could still go to work if he wore a cloth mask. FYI if you have had contact with a covid-positive individual and are asked to self-isolate this is just not true. You have to follow these directions: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/Self-isolation_dos_donts.pdf
Spoiler: You can’t go to work. You can’t go to the grocery store.
The biggest disappointment I have in the system is that they didn’t have stockpiles of basic PPE. That seems insane because it would be pretty cheap and crucial not just for this kind of situation but any kind of emergency where shipments were interrupted for weeks at a time but many injured/sick needed treatment.
Given the fact that we seem to have high transmissibility and many people who can be contagious without symptoms it seems insane to me not to test grocery and pharmacy staff at the very least. Otherwise these locations can become vectors of transmission and no-one knows.
After looking into it, I don’t think Canada has approved self-administered swabs yet as we have incomplete testing. Hopefully this will happen soon. I don’t understand all the logistics in the interim, and believe people are doing their best, but it does seem that there has been plenty of “pandemic preparedness” in Canada over the years since SARS which has not resulted in actual preparedness for testing for a virus such as this. I’m not sure why not. Maybe it is not real until it is as the Spanish flu was a long time ago and SARS did not have as big of an impact here as it did in Asia.
Generally I think BC is doing a good job here. Not good enough to get cases to zero but good enough that we should have no issue with keeping cases below the health care capacity. Big concern I have will be whether we can keep the economy somewhat going if this stays on a slow boil for several months.
This stuff doesn’t just magically appear. They’re doing their best to ramp up testing but they have limited capacity and that means prioritising who gets tested. And the logic is sound that if someone is sick and isolating at home there really is no point in testing them unless a positive would change their care, which it currently wouldn’t. Sick untested people are told to isolate at home, and sick positive people are told the same thing.
Haven’t heard of availability of the home test in Canada yet but I’m sure they’re looking into it.
Our test rate in BC is pretty respectable. Higher rate per capita than South Korea. https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-british-columbia-testing-covid-213328884.html
Former Landlord, if you watch the Bill Gates youtube you’ll see a home self-test has been developed. Easy to self-administer and no need of PPE to do it. Not rolled out well I guess. This is where our efforts should be. Why oh why not from the start?
The Dutch just forced a pharmaceutical company to release one of its recipes used in a test, so that Dutch labs can make their own. Apparently Roche was only able to supply 30% of the demand for this ingredient in the Netherlands. For reference see:
https://www.ftm.nl/artikelen/roche-releases-recipe-after-public-pressure-while-european-commission-considers-intervention-due-to-coronavirus-test
I really do believe health authorities are speaking the truth when they are saying there is a lack of testing capabilities. And each country in the world is now scrambling to get expand their testing capabilities.
I am not sure how South Korea was able to ramp up so quickly. Maybe because there were not as many countries fighting over getting the tests at the time…
Also my understanding is that there is a worldwide shortage of protective equipment. Taking tests requires use of protective equipment that might be needed elsewhere.
The Italian army has been called on to cart away all the bodies. Not an annual occurrence.
QUESTION TO BILL GATES: If you were president for a month what would you do right now..
Answer: widespread testing and isolation for those infected. If you test and isolate you have a quick reduction in 20 days…
So why in the heck are we not testing and isolating on a grand scale Canada?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Canada subsidized the fossil fuel industry to the tune of almost $60 billion in 2015 — approx. $1,650 per Canadian.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Global-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Remain-Large-An-Update-Based-on-Country-Level-Estimates-46509
Not even close. a tenth of that at best.
Right. What we do know is it’s much higher than the flu. Lower bound perhaps as bad as the Hong Kong flu of ’68, upper bound perhaps 2 or 3 times worse.
Right now it is widely varying by country for sure and true CFR will be lower than indicated here.
Yes, Bill Gates is right. We need to test, test, test and isolate, isolate, isolate. Why have all this unneeded human and economic fall-out? I don’t understand.
Works for me. The drive behind minimalism is the same as the one behind efficiency. I like both.
New Ted (virtual) talk with Bill Gates
https://youtu.be/Xe8fIjxicoo
BC Housing employees, Spec Tax department and health care come from the same pool of available funds. I would rather we have more health care workers and less people running BC Housing and Spec Tax. I am missing 98 other inefficient or useless programs draining funds that could be used for health care.
NHL players are a waste too but they create their own pool of funds.
I do agree with you on a very macro picture of society; however, there is the reality of public vs private sector.
Are you implying that GM can’t just hook up an engine to a radiator with a tube sticking out and that should work?
I wonder if that might also be partly contributing to different mortality rates between Germany and Italy/Spain. From the sounds of it the latter countries health systems are overwhelmed and thus might be forced to use untrained staff.
This ventilator discussions all over the internet are driving me nuts.
i/ Quality ventilators for managing ARDS are very complicated machines; you can’t just design one in 10 days. A good ventilator is the price of a Tesla.
ii/ It is great that people are donating ventilators but ventilators also need a good supply chain for parts (i.e. circuits changes between each patient , etc.)
iii/ As a health care professional you can’t just grab any ventilator and hope for the best. Each ventilator takes time to learn and you would be shocked how different they all are. I always found Siemens ventilators confusing.
iv/ ARDS (condition you develop with COVID19) is difficult to ventilate and if you aren’t well trained (I was in school for 3 years studying ventilators/ventilation) you can easily give someone a pneumothorax (you blow their lung open, they die).
v/ ARDS already has a mortality of 47% if state of the art ventilators and trained health care professionals. Just imagine what it is with inferior ventilators and poorly trained staff.
The case for testing and quarantine. I’m convinced.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs&fbclid=IwAR0T-vppK_cSg7ScSM8HYZ3mCdbFpzJmVWlRD8oOTZ9y1SXfW29-xMqXnoA
Don’t forget about the testing! If we don’t want to turn a pandemic into an economic disaster, we have to start testing en masse. That’s how we’ll know if more distancing/shutdown is required or if we can safely rollback without creating more waves later.
And the more of it I do, the more I’m convinced that debating the numbers, whether it’s infection rates, mortality rates, comparative numbers, this rate or that rate – is utterly pointless right now.
The simple fact is no one knows its true mortality rate, or how many people actually have it right now. That 100k in the USA is probably next to worthless – all it measures are tests completed in mostly symptomatic people that have come back positive. For all we know, the true infection rate is off by a factor of 5 or more. Places like Italy distort the picture and scare everyone because they have a lethal combination of very high population density and among the oldest population on earth. Spain isn’t far behind in that respect. I digress.
In a few years we’ll know more. But for now, the only thing we know is we need a vaccine and, ventilators.
Nope – between 2 flight cancelations, the first of which we accepted a rebooking on an alternate flight on a partner airline, the Canadian travel advisory and the fact that Indonesia stopped offering the standard 30 day visitor visa on arrival, there was no way it was going to happen. Good thing because it would likely have been a debacle of a trip. Now we’re just trying to get refunds from the airline (should be getting 100% due to 2nd cancellation) and AirBnB (also promised 100%) – I’m very surprised AirBnB has stepped up to the plate like this because 2 of 3 our reservations were not refundable.
At first all 4 of us were pretty disappointed, it was a big trip and event for us. And I’ll admit back in late February and early March we were of the “it’s just a bit worse flu“ mindset. So much has changed since then, it’s actually a bit surreal.
Leo M – just comparing death rate is pointless. SARS death rate was close to 10% so i guess its worse then everything. Except it isn’t – it wasn’t easily transmitted, it was only transmittable while symptomatic and guess what – only 8000 people got it. Furthermore influenza in the states kills 0.1% – right now Covid 19 is probably closer to 1% – so 10 times worse death rate and more easily transmittable. You should do some more reading.
The annual influenza death rate is about 1% but if you combine the annual mortality rate for influenza and pneumonia the rate is over 6%. The mortality for COVID-19 is usually attributed to ‘pneumonia like’ symptoms. Global COVID mortality rates over time show a rate of 5.7%, although it seems to be decreasing as more data is received and analyzed.
The more I read about this COVID-19 the more I see it’s no worse than the annual flu, based on the historic statistics from bccdc, CDC, and other government sources.
Yeah! What an exciting race to first place! How long till 200k? China numbers seem somewhat underreported…
USA -100k.
yuck.
@Grant, did you end up going to Bali?
Don’t you complain that your entire job is waste?
I knew it was him all along.
The fossil fuel industry has been standing on its own for decades and, to this day, still receives billions in government subsidies.
I have an idea. Let’s transfer all those fossil fuel subsidies to clean tech for the next 60 years and then we’ll call it even.
Canada to implement QE for the first time:
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-ventures-into-uncharted-territory-to-fight-coronavirus-fallout
Not sure why that would be alarming. It shows that they would even have enough capacity in an Italy type scenario by adding/freeing up more space.
Marko congrats on the lifestyle change. Makes a lot of sense.
Or how about we don’t have complete waste in society like the owner builder exam and we pay health care workers better?
Seems not so alarming until you hit the slide: Critical Care Demand Against Capacity
There you go Local Fool, look no further than Marko’s recent move from Central Saanich to downtown for why you don’t see a large spread between houses up the peninsula and condos downtown! 🙂
Apparently there were rates up to prime – 1.3% available, but no longer
https://www.ratespy.com/bank-of-canada-cuts-rates-again-032712816
Coast capital had a prime -.95% available about a week or two ago but I think they raised it shortly after.
Grant:
I understand what would make you think that, but it’s not likely in the short to immediate term. Everyone is running the printing press now. And, prior to this it’s important to note that the USD was doing exceptionally well against other currencies even with their record levels of debt. Why is that? Part of the reason is, as badly as the US is, everyone else is much worse off. Negative interest rates in Europe, same in Japan, China’s currency is still pretty walled off, and the world’s investors are looking for something, anything, that they can invest in to give them some sort of return. So far that’s only been found in the US, which means increased demand for USD and USD based assets. For the short term at least everyone is still desperate for USD. CAD will suffer until oil bounces back.
~~
I read Finance Time(UK) yesterday, everyone else is buying the Chinese bonds totaled up to 107 Trillion USD equivalent in Feb 2020. Morgan Stanley admitted they had now dumped most USD bonds and they are looking for positive returns in mainland china by purchasing Chinese bonds. China only allows the funds to come in but not out…. go figure the G20 summit meeting: the US want all of the world to pumping cash in the market. China wants the US to lift the tariff and China wont print cash.
guess what, it only going to get worse before everyone else is thinking about real co-operaiation.
to me, our housing price is going down at least 20% in next a few years ( of course the currency exchange already made it worse).
Also, I hate to say this, Canada is a just a small potato that follows the American’s lead. When is it going to be real sovereign: Canadians first by protecting Canadians’ best interests ( NOT Americans )
Just think back to this before complaining about high marginal tax rate. Low taxes or higher paid health care staff. Can’t have both.
Full slides with modelling for BC
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/COVID19_Technical_Briefing_Condensed.pdf
That’s not the north american way Marko.
Come on man… live the dream.
I am ranging from prime -0.50 to 1%. They did another drop this morning so if the banks follow I am looking at 2% or sub.
In the four years I worked in ICU I didn’t go through anything like this, but I quickly realized how under appreciated and underpaid front line health care workers were so I just quit and moved to flipping paper which society seems to value.
I remember once I ran from ICU to a code on the ward at 5:30 am (10.5 hours into my shift with no sleep) shocked the individual and performed a difficult intubation before the first doctor showed up. At 7:00 am went home, no thanks for anyone. No note from the manager, nothing.
Once an intensivist asked me to do chest compressions on a previous healthy 18 year old as he brought his parents into the ICU room to let them know their son wasn’t going to make it…it was so messed up.
I help someone buy a house, I get overpaid, and they give me a gift….wtf.
Lifestyle driven, not environmental decision. I just find life so much easier not having ****. I love sailing so when I go to Croatia I rent a sailboat. Two weeks later I return it, not my problem if gale force winds hit the marina this winter. My father and I like to go fishing 3-4 times a year here on the island and just find it cheaper to charter and a lot less headache versus having a boat, hauling a boat, maintaining a boat, insuring a boat, etc.
With my old house I had a 60” TV and it was such a pain to move I just sold it and with the condo I bought a 50” that could easily fit into my trunk and I could move by myself.
Just trying to simplify everything.
🙁
The sacrifice these individuals are making and the pain for the family members are obviously the biggest thing, but the loss of qualified healthcare providers is going to be a heavy, heavy toll on society. Think of all the years of schooling, training and experience being wiped out – it’s such a tragedy on all sides.
Bank of Canada dropping rates another half point to 0.25, meaning variable rates dropping even further.
My bad. Wish there was a delete comment button. Quickly looked at Bank Prime and saw 3.95% (didn’t see that was from 2018). Lesson learned… don’t quickly scan the first thing that pops up on google.
So you have a prime minus 1% I’m assuming. How long ago did you get that? Best I can find right now is prime minus 0.5
Can you walk from Gordon head to anywhere?
Nope.
It’s a suburb.
Sorry Marko. You don’t live in a massive house. You’ve already given it up.
So your variable rate is prime minus 1.7% or greater? That is amazing. When and how did you get that deal? And was it through one of the big 5?
News out of Italy today is disheartening.
I understand what would make you think that, but it’s not likely in the short to immediate term. Everyone is running the printing press now. And, prior to this it’s important to note that the USD was doing exceptionally well against other currencies even with their record levels of debt. Why is that? Part of the reason is, as badly as the US is, everyone else is much worse off. Negative interest rates in Europe, same in Japan, China’s currency is still pretty walled off, and the world’s investors are looking for something, anything, that they can invest in to give them some sort of return. So far that’s only been found in the US, which means increased demand for USD and USD based assets. For the short term at least everyone is still desperate for USD. CAD will suffer until oil bounces back.
You told me two days ago that buying Suncor shares was immoral and then you follow it up with this…….classic. I have to put this up there with Leonardo Dicrappio’s preaching’s from his 400′ yacht.
Maybe. But similar things were said in 2008. Much of the rest of the world will be pumping similar cash.
I am concerned about the US getting hit worse than others and that affecting our recovery though.
I am concerned about the new world order after the virus is gone. US dollar( Canadian dollars included) will be no longer the international currency after pumping cash into the market.
That’s ridiculous. I work for an environmental consultancy company. People literally pay us to lecture them about the environment and write huge documents about how to change their practices to lower their footprint. My boss lives rurally, drives a big gas SUV and does a ton of air travel. That doesn’t invalidate his expertise.
“You shouldn’t listen to the medical advice of your doctor. Last year I saw them drinking a soda!”
Loan losses and deferrals are going to motivate the banks to increase their lending margins, irrespective of any guidance from the government.
I wonder if the banks might get some pressure not to pass on the whole amount to mortgage borrowers
Yes, seems likely.
And the BOC have also started QE (buying at least $5bn Canadian bonds per week and commercial paper (“Money market funds”) too. This to continue indefinitely. Apparently they don’t call it QE. Not surprisingly, the CAD fell on the news.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/press-release-2020-03-27/
“ The Bank’s efforts have been primarily focused on ensuring the availability of credit by providing liquidity to help markets continue to function. To promote credit availability, the Bank has expanded its various term repo facilities. To preserve market function, the Bank is conducting Government of Canada bond buybacks and switches, purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds and banker’s acceptances, and purchases of provincial money market instruments. All these additional measures have been detailed on the Bank’s website and will be extended or augmented as needed.
Today, the Bank is launching two new programs.
First, the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) will help to alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses. Details of the program will be available on the Bank’s web site.
Second, to address strains in the Government of Canada debt market and to enhance the effectiveness of all other actions taken so far, the Bank will begin acquiring Government of Canada securities in the secondary market. Purchases will begin with a minimum of $5 billion per week, across the yield curve. The program will be adjusted as conditions warrant, but will continue until the economic recovery is well underway. The Bank’s balance sheet will expand as a result of these purchases.”
Any bets as to whether the banks follow in lockstep or not?
Anyone for some potentially famous last words…like, OMG, interest rates couldn’t possibly go lower.
Steve next week, hey, let’s try 0%… 😛
Since any good news is welcome, it appears official that Harry and Megan have moved to LA. And the City, in a moment of sanity has decided not to use Beacon Hill Park to house the homeless.
My mortgages will be going under 2% with this….crazy.
Another 0.5% rate cut. We are down to 0.25% which is the previous low in the financial crisis. Will we get to zero?
Canada’s big banks field more than 200,000 mortgage deferral requests
What, you mean I still have to pay it all back?
That is correct, we will need fossil fuel for many years to come, and nuclear power will also need to come in play to offset the future demand, because for now there are no better solutions. I’m not saying we shouldn’t put effort into research for alternative energy, however taking money from the poor and feed it to eviro scheming companies and CEOs is a waste of resource when it could be put toward helping the old and poor. Take the Yellow vest protests in France as an example, poor working class people got fed up with the fuel tax that hurt them much more than rich people.
Yeah, that what they want you to believe when taxes upon taxes keep making their way into unaccountable general revenue.
Why should we need incentives for manufactures to sell any products? That money come directly from everyone pocket and put it into the hands of the rich to help them buy new expensive EV and save money on the back of the poor, and the poor continuously subsidizing the rich through fuel/road taxes that EV owners are exempt of. What worst, much of the enviro collected money is funneled into the pocket of a few wealthy CEOs and enviro activists.
I had been wondering what happens when somebody had been pre-approved by a mortgage lender, signed a property purchase contract, and then is laid off before closing due to the covid-19 pandemic. Well, it has already happened at least once:
“When the lender conducted a routine check on the person’s employment status two weeks before the closing date, it discovered the client, who works in the hotel sector, had been temporarily laid off with no set return date.
The mortgage was cancelled, [the mortgage lender] said.”
Since it was too late to cancel the purchase contract (the conditions had already passed), the buyer was suddenly left without the money to buy the property, and with an unavoidable closing date looming
“buyers who find themselves in that situation face the possibility of losing thousands of dollars in deposit, Butler said. And if the seller has to re-list the property and eventually sells for a lower price, the original buyer may be on the hook for the difference”.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6702662/coronavirus-canada-housing-market/amp/
If mortgage lenders likewise double-check employment for mortgage renewals..yikes!
Note, jump in relative sales is due to low few days last year. Seems like listings are dropping faster than sales right now but both continue to drift downwards.
If you truly spend NO money on a house. It can become uninhabitable sooner than you think. The land will still be worth something and may go up in value
“Don’t spend any money on that condo and eventually it will be worthless. Don’t spend any money on that house and eventually it will be worth more than the purchase price.”
That’s true. I’ve noticed a lot of older condos on MLS listed for $0 lately.
Only if you’re planning on pushing the buttons with means other than the method you’re implying.
Unless you live somewhere really backwoods you might find that you don’t actually have “complete flexibility to do what you want with your property”. Read the allowed uses for your zoning.
Condoms work for pushing those elevator buttons too. But gets expensive. Also embarrassing to be caught fumbling with the package in the elevator.
Not true. Carbon tax is paid by everyone but more than refunded for low income.
Things like EV incentives are required at the beginning to kickstart the industry. Has worked great so far and once the industry stands on its own they can be phased out (very soon).
So your solution is that there is no solution as we need fossil fuel to eradicate poverty?
I’m sorry but I don’t see it as a solution when people dictate how other should live, and avocate for more taxes to divert the wealth from the poor to the rich through their ill conceived enviro schemes. If you look when traveling you would quickly recognize that fossil fuel as an inexpensive source of energy has lifted many out of poverty and there are many more people are waiting to move up and out of poverty. If we shut down industries and fossil fuel we would first condem billions of people out of the prosperity that wealthy westerners are enjoying before it affect our lifestyle.
My guess: the BCTF could see what an astronomical hole coronavirus-related emergency spending was going to blow in the provincial budget and wisely decided to take what they could get while the gettin’ was still good.
Amidst all this,
Contract breakthrough for B.C. teachers as union announces tentative deal
https://globalnews.ca/news/6739638/bctf-tentative-contract/
The UDI has been lobbying the government on behalf of developers to keep all projects open. Communication from some GCs is that this will pass in a couple of weeks. Not sure if that is entirely accurate.
Bought the kids a fish today. Unsure of the climate impact but mea culpa
https://globalnews.ca/news/6736076/essential-service-coronavirus/
Sounds like pretty much everything is an essential service except maybe tourism…
It is not the pets he is blaming, he is pointing out that pet owners shouldn’t be lecturing others on the environment.
It is the pet owners that decide what kind of food to buy for their pets. Corporations aren’t forcing me to buy cat food with meat in it. I decide if I want to buy legumes vs meat based pet food.
Uh, never said that or anything like it.
They have a backstop on insured mortgages. Even with those, banks incur expenses on foreclosures that the insurance doesn’t cover.
The government will likely keep the big 5 operating no matter what, but that doesn’t protect the shareholders from losing everything. Like with GM.
Hey guys, it’s been a while. Just wanted to say: Be healthy, And stay home.
And here’s a comic that seems appropriate to the news of today.
Thanks tips. But whats normal right now? A million new people applying for EI? Sounds pretty normal to me. You’re right, I’m sure there will be no increase in scrutiny before banks or others loan out funds.
Fob in my building is contactless, just need some voice commands to select floor and good to go.
Thank you and Josh for explaining it all to me. As long as I don’t buy shares of paper companies irrelevant how much completely unnecessary material I print. Got it!
I roll with reality; I live in North America and I am horrible for the environment on a global scale and I don’t plan to give up my North American lifestyle. At least I am honest with myself.
We elect the politicians….who is going to win running a campaign of “we will making housing more affordable by making new homes smaller on smaller lots?”
If banks are lending to Joe making $100k/year they are also lending to Dr. Suzie making $500k/year so either way unless you are in the top % of earners you aren’t getting into your dream home in Oak Bay.
Even 850k for say, a 2500 s/f house on a 5000 s/f lot, while a stupid price IMO, seems like a better buy than a lot of those condos for sale today. A brief look on my PCS right now shows several resale homes (although it seems like less than a few weeks ago) on the Saanich Peninsula that are bordering on executive class that are similar in price to a moderate, new condo downtown. This is the point I’m making, and part of what I just don’t get. That value chasm between SFH further out and condos in the core isn’t negligible IMO, it’s gigantic. At least to me, it is. I guess at the moment, the market sees it quite differently. Then again the market can favor silly things, like 900k condos to live in, Kim Kardashian for entertainment and crates of toilet paper to address a respiratory illness.
Personally, yes. I’d call them “neighborhoods”, but I don’t know what the threshold is for neighborhood —> suburb. The closest examples of suburbs according to my own “feel” are Sidney and Langford. Completely debatable, I guess.
Leo S said: “Brendan LaCerda, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics thinks that each 1% increase in unemployment would decrease house prices by 4% on a recent vancouver real estate podcast.”
I wonder if he takes into account unemployment in China/Hong Kong too, given how so many newer Canadian families in Greater Vancouver actually have dad still earning and sending over most of their money from overseas (incidentally, undeclared and thus not taxed as Canadian income).
Hmm, by LaCerda’s rule, it would only take unemployment to grow another 25% (vaguely like Spain’s recent crisis?) before houses in Vancouver are free! 😉
Condos with external access might be attractive. Isn’t there a development on Yates like that?
And you completely miss the point that what consumers demand is highly influenced by political decisions, including taxation, subsidies, regulations, and so on.
Assuming you meet the normal criteria for loan acceptance, banks will lend to you.
This notion that banks get super afraid to lend during downturns is nothing more than wishful thinking. Banks want to keep making money; and as long as they don’t break any rules, they know they have a government backstop, should the absolute worst happen.
Remember one party’s debt is another party’s savings. Forgive debts and you would destroy a great number of people economically, and reward those who borrowed up to their eyebrows to buy condos, gold or whatever.
We already have a way out for people who can’t pay their debts – bankruptcy.
“the question is, would you rather:
…pay $250 – $350 per square foot to live 20 minutes (mind you I’m a leadfoot) away, with total silence, no strata, lots of space and complete flexibility to do what you want with your property, or,
…pay nearly $500 to $1000 per square foot to have less than 1/3 the floor space, none of the land, constant urban noise, the cost of the strata, potentially egregious insurance costs and people living on all sides of you 24/7?”
Neither? $850,000 for a house on a 5,000 square foot lot is too expensive for me. My preference would be to live somewhere more rural, or be closer into town and sacrifice a bit on privacy.
Now, if you had asked me 10 years ago where I would rather live, my answer without hesitation would be downtown.
“Aside and as kind of a funny remark – only someone from Victoria would think 20 minutes away is a “commute” – because on the grand scheme of things it isn’t. Hehehe I always giggle when I hear people call Gordon Head a “suburb”…”
No 20 minutes is not much of a commute. As for Gordon Head, it isn’t urban and it isn’t rural. So I’m not sure what to call it other than a suburb. Do you think Victoria is too small to have suburbs? I don’t understand.
Don’t spend any money on that condo and eventually it will be worthless. Don’t spend any money on that house and eventually it will be worth more than the purchase price.
One of my favourites is your thinking that printing out a few physical pages for clients (as opposed viewing PDFs) is annihilating the environment.
You included.
Don’t know why you include this because it was very effective, indeed too effective. Sure some people got away with having more than one but what matters is the totals.
The communist leadership didn’t realize that urbanization would reduce the birth rate in a natural manner. Now the norm is one per woman, and they’ve got fewer women than men on top of that.
New York City Is Running Out of Dogs and Cats to Foster Amid Coronavirus:
https://youtu.be/dj0GKO_bSRs
Hope those people will keep them once the disaster is over.
Yes I agree, it’s not an apples to apples comparison. My comment stands though in terms of comparing my perception of relative value. This holds whether the detached home is new or resale. The new ones on the market are only marginally more money, although they tend to come with far smaller lots so they are more expensive that way. And condos are only brand new until the first person lives in it.
The point is, it’s a choice that buyers have. Personally, I don’t find downtown desirable, for many reasons. Many don’t agree – but the question to me is, would I rather:
…pay $250 – $350 per square foot to live 20 minutes (mind you I’m a leadfoot) away, with total silence, no strata, lots of space and complete flexibility to do what I want with your property, or,
…pay nearly $500 to $1000 per square foot to have less than 1/3 the floor space, none of the land, constant urban noise, the cost of the strata, potentially egregious insurance costs and people living on all sides of me 24/7?
For instance, I could see people paying the same per square foot that I did for my house for their condos, because of the “premium” of living downtown and being close to amenities. But not two to four times as much – and it’s far more than that if we’re comparing it by price per square foot of land. In fact, condo prices downtown are selling for more per square foot in many cases, than detached homes 10 to 15 minutes away! The value, to me, just isn’t there on the condo side at all. It’s one of the reasons why I continue to think the condo market is going to be the achilles heel of BC RE.
Aside and as kind of a funny remark – only someone from Victoria would think 20 minutes away is a “commute” – because on the grand scheme of things it isn’t. Hehehe I always giggle when I hear people call Gordon Head a “suburb”…
QT – why not point out some solutions instead of this focus on pointing out problems? Without solutions what is the point except to complain? If you are not happy with my proposal come up with something sensible that will work. It is not always about shooting people down.
On March 18th, the US had less than 10 thousand confirmed cases. 8 days later, and they’ve passed Italy and China. They still don’t have enough tests available in most states. They’ll hit 100,000 confirmed cases by Saturday at the latest. The fact that they still aren’t taking it seriously down there boggles my mind. A full 25% of world wide cases right now are being registered in the US.
True, however if unemployment drag on long enough it would bleed to the regular folks too, that scenario happened here back in the 80s.
Both parents were in Health care. Mother was a microbiologist. Despite my interest I was told unequivocally: Avoid the health care industry. Any specific questions you’d like answered?
Perfect case of robed from the poor to give it to the rich, where rich people can afford to buy EV with government handout using fuel/carbon/enviro taxes, and the poor sod that living paycheck to paycheck holding the bag.
So farmers and poor people who lives in the rural areas and well as people who can’t afford an expensive home in downtown are going to get a hit with ill concived km scheme.
IMO it is wrong to force others to conform to your lifestyle when you can’t fully live that lifestyle your selves, and just because I planted over 300,000 trees back in my college days that is good for the environment, that I and my fellow tree planters should force others to plant trees too.
Can you imagine? I think the scary thing is not even the investors, its those people who truly overleveraged and bought the expensive home with the suite (which was probably one of the hottest markets segments) because the “potential” suite income upped their buying power. What a terrible situation to be in. Can’t afford w/out suite income. Tenant out of work and you can’t get blood from a stone. So go for the deferral? But if you still have your job will they let you? Have a friend that depends on suite income. Tenant said they cant pay April. Have another friend that has an investment house and rents upper / lower. Both tenants have told him they can’t pay rent come April. I guess they will get the $500 for each one. Doesn’t cover much though.
What else is scary is that a large portion of people believe that once this calms down or runs its initial course all those companies will immediately hire everyone back and we will all be travelling and eating out, and buying everything like it never happened. Companies that truly fold will not be able to start right back up. Companies that have laid people off will not be able to turn around on a dime and re-hire and have everything back to normal.
Sure, credit may be cheap but the risk has skyrocketed. As Leo pointed out, you can’t buy something if no one is willing to lend you the money.
Crazy times indeed.
Marko
buy dog bags and use them and throw out
I use my jacket to push the buttons then I hang it up and let it sit for three days and grab a new one when I leave. I have a rotation of 6 going.
“Condo prices for instance, shouldn’t be $1,100 a square foot IMHO…In my case, we paid about $272 per square foot for a detached, or about $52.00 a square foot if you count the lot.”
These sorts of comparisons don’t make sense to me. A brand new condo built on the most desirable real estate in Victoria is going to cost more per square foot than a house that has undergone years of depreciation and is located on a suburban lot far from town.
It would be like me saying that I can’t understand you paying $52.00 per square foot for your land, when I could pay $16 per square foot in the Cowichan Valley.
I was wondering how long before people started thinking about elevators and condo hallways.
The shift to SUVs has been largely overblown. When something like the Nissan Kicks is sold as an SUV despite it being the size of a small hatchback with a 1.6L engine the term has lost all meaning.
This perhaps gives us a bit of a hint as to the financial stability of home owners.
Let’s say ~1M additional EI applications received
213,000 applications for mortgage deferral which requires proof of hardship / layoffs / etc
67% home ownership.
Seems like more layoffs likely concentrated in renters just given service industry likely lower paid and less likely to own. But too many variables there for a solid conclusion.
Housing corrections always come from the people at the margins. Those that would have bought but now can’t, and those that own but now are forced to sell. Investors who can’t carry their properties will have a heck of a hard time selling with tenants that cannot be evicted and may not be paying rent.
RIP Takaya
You deserved better…
Hope people on here are doing ok. Very sobering what we are all facing. Found some rubbing alcohol yesterday. Made me so happy..
Thank you Local Fool – interesting! I wish there were an unbiased mortgage lending industry pro who could tell us, from time to time, how much easier or harder a time Victoria clients are having getting mortgages.
About condos being over-valued… Oh poor condos really can’t catch a break these days, can they? 🙁
The ongoing condo insurance fiasco still rages on, with huge surprise jumps in strata fees.
And now, I wonder if covid-19 is going to give a lot of pause to potential condo buyers. Even if you live in the most expensive condo in town, you still have to share doors, elevators (and elevator buttons), narrow hallways (where one hopes nobody coughed in the last 5 minutes)…with 100+ other people on a daily basis depending on the condo size (More, when you account for their guests).
By the way, I know of a couple buildings that aren’t allowing more than two people in an elevator at once. Has anybody else seen this?
I wonder how many retired seniors who would otherwise have wanted a condo will look at townhouses (or small detached homes) instead. Well, in the short term anyways. The general public seems to have a surprisingly short memory, once a crisis is past.
That’s a great question, not a silly one. From the numbers perspective, you’ll see things like rates rising, or not falling at the same rate as the overnight rate or Bond market. Essentially, the banks are charging you more as a risk premium.
On an individual level, it also involves increased scrutiny of your job, its profile, how long you’ve been there, your degree of liquidity etc. If you came in with a 50% down payment, perfect credit and you’re in a well paid secure job sector, you’re probably going to get some kind of a mortgage almost no matter what. But that’s not most people.
Basically, the answer is, they are just more likely to find reason to say no to you, because they are scared. Think of it in the same way as the ride up, when they are happy to loan as asset prices are rising. It’s a feedback loop. It’s just the reverse in this case, that’s all.
Even before COVID19 condo construction in Victoria was coming to a slowdown at record breaking prices.
Well if you run the math on that, 15% unemployment would be quite a sight – that would be a 60% haircut on RE prices. Sounds nuts, perhaps. In some markets it would be, but what about Vancouver?
Condo prices for instance, shouldn’t be $1,100 a square foot IMHO. A 60% haircut on a $1M 900 square foot condo, would then sell for 400k. Forgive me, but I actually think 400k for a 900 square foot condo is still pretty rich. That’s still nearly $450 dollars a square foot!
It’s a condo, for heaven’s sake. How much can almost no land in a depreciating, strata-encumbered box that developers can make almost ad-infinitum, really be worth? The whole thing is crazy, at least to me.
Don’t know about Victoria.
In my case, we paid about $272 per square foot for a detached, or about $52.00 a square foot if you count the lot. A 60% haircut on that seems extreme, and probably not sustainable unless rates were to skyrocket. I guess the point I’m making is that I doubt such a fall would be the same everywhere.
Draconian measures vs. disincentives – kind of a different thing. The one child policy vs. some legislation like we have that imposes an additional consumer tax on ex. gasoline, cigarettes and alcohol hardly seem comparable?
And maybe gas prices are not that effective but insurance premiums are? If you know you are going to take a bigger hit on your insurance renewal if you drive a bigger vehicle or you drive more (ie. kms recorded as they are now…) this might be a better approach. We need good research on consumer behaviour to inform policy/legislation decisions. My bet is that a tiny per km addition to insurance premiums would be a direct disincentive.
Want to reduce meat consumption? Maybe legislate changes to the industry requiring humane treatment of animals conforming to new standards along with public health messaging starting in schools. That will increase prices, which will reduce consumption imo.
“People without the cash will find that the banks don’t want to lend ”
Kind of a silly question, but other than rising mortgage rates (governed by bond market, despite falling Bank of Canada rates, I know), how do banks typically tighten their mortgage lending practices at a time like this?
How did the bank acceptance formula change during the 2008 crisis?
Do banks start self-imposing qualification math that is tougher than existing industry-wide lending qualification rules? Or, for example do they become much stricter with believing self-employed borrowers? (I’m reminded of the guy in the U.S. who, in the run-up to the 2008 bubble burst, qualified for a huge home purchase loan by proving he was self-employed in a mariachi band — by only attaching a photo of his band to the application).
Wasn’t there a poster on here that whose bank recently removed mortgage eligibility? Without going into personal details, was there a new general bank rule that caused that?
How is that legislation is working out for British Columbian when when are buying more trucks and SUV even those fuel price is 35-50% higher here than AB? Take a look at the Chinese one child draconian legislation that had to be scraped after more than 3 decade. It didn’t stop some people from having more than one child, and left a horific social impact on their society. IMO, the government can legislate all they want but that will not work unless everyon are treated equally with everyone on this planet are on board, or it make absolute economic and social sense.
Even better would be to adopt a child that need a loving home. Personally I want to adopt a child, but I haven’t able to convince my wife.
Brendan LaCerda, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics thinks that each 1% increase in unemployment would decrease house prices by 4% on a recent vancouver real estate podcast. He didn’t say how long that unemployment would have to last though.
We’ve come full circle. This is ultimately a blame game of supply vs demand. You’re blaming demand I’ve been blaming supply (specifically how it’s supplied). I don’t find a lot of use in blaming demand because the solutions are things like “let’s cull all the pets”. Seeing as the vast majority of pets are neutered, I can hardly blame owners. Cat and dog mills certainly draw my ire but I just don’t see pets as a worthwhile tree to bark up. There’s so much other lower hanging fruit.
I am only responding to how dunb the lecturing is….it seems like every third post is a lecture.
Is it it such a difficult concept to understand that if people didn’t have >200 million pets in North America that these corporations wouldn’t exist?
I know you just said you don’t like to be lectured on the environment, but you seem to keep lecturing others on it, so I’m going to keep that conversation going. Blaming pets over corporations when it comes to the environment is out-of-this-world levels of scapegoating. Imagine that it’s too hot in a house. You walk around the house and then you find a candle and think AH HAH and point your finger at the candle, ignoring the raging dumpster fire right beside it. Pets are an especially weird thing to blame when it’s just a few corporations that are responsible for producing 90%+ of all pet food. Decisions made at those corporations to shift protein sources from meat to legumes would save tremendous amounts of emissions. Are you still pointing your finger at the nearest dog?
Apparently as of today, more than 213,000 Canadians have already sought mortgage payment relief.
I suspect the events unfolding are going to be a great demonstration of why people can’t just waltz into a bank and borrow money to pick up additional houses “on the cheap”.
People without the cash will find that the banks don’t want to lend which of course, reinforces the price movement down. So sure, that 800k house is now 650k, but good luck finding a lender willing to loan you the money. That comes later, once optimism returns to the market…and no matter how bad this gets or how long it lasts, that optimism does return. Kind of a standard correction, I’d think.
But I do wonder this time – like I was saying, the metrics that had a significant role in inflating asset prices are still in place, and in fact are about to be far larger than before. It’s an open question to me what happens now, given that the world is about to be more awash in money than at any point in history. Unemployment may trash the market for now, but it’s possible there may be a equally scary ride back up. This isn’t how it’s supposed to be, is it? WTF is the world supposed to do with all this debt? Monetize it in perpetuity? A debt jubilee?
What a mess.
I didn’t realize you’d moved Marko – totally agree – we currently have four in about 1300 square feet …. plus a cat 🙂
Ha ha….growing up in Croatia in 90s I don’t remember anyone with a pet cat and only one person with a pet dog. My grandfather had a dog to heard sheep and a cat to eat mice around outside of house but both were not allowed to enter the house.
Now even in Croatia as the socioeconomic status improves people are buying pet dogs/cats.
I loved my grandfather’s animals and I don’t actually mind people’s pets jumping me in elevators just don’t lecture me on the environment. That’s the only thing I ask.
Actually no. I’ve downsized to a condo less than 20% size of the house and it’s still too much space. Having lived in everything from 500 sqft to giant house my conclusion is a couple only needs 700 to 800 sqft. Family of three should be super comfortable in 1,000 sqft (I lived with my parents until 25 yrs old in 800 sqft or less the entire time) and family of four should be comfortable in 1,200 sqft. Just my opinion.
Even better, if you want to get one, get a rescue cat/dog from animal shelter and have them fixed asap. Cats and dogs are part of the nature, and they have been with human for 10,000 years or more.
Our rescue cat once wiped away my tears from my face, and kept kissing my head until I got up (not because lacking of food/water as he had plenty in his bowls then).
You mean if the owners continue to be unemployed after the 6 month deferral period?
It’s not the only reason. For example, how many consumers buy coal, which is the worst offender? Of course consumers do buy fossil fuels, but a huge amount of fossil fuel use is by industries producing some other product. They can change to lower-emissions production, as the article points out. To get them to do it, government has to make emissions more expensive.
You have a real obsession with cats and dogs 🙂
Hard to tell how big the impact is.
“Using data from the Australia study, they calculated the Jack Russell causes the emissions of about 2o kilograms of carbon dioxide per year, 60 kg for the Labrador, and 90 kg for the St. Bernard. But using the ASU study, they calculated the Jack Russell emits 600 kg, the Labrador 1.6 metric tons and the St. Bernard 2.3 tons.“
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2017/08/02/whats-your-dogs-carbon-pawprint/#6d99c5aa13a6
Could be quite substantial for sure and worth considering. I’d say our cats are certainly less impact than a dog by size alone.
But yes I totally agree about the tendency to blame corporations. The source is articles like this one “ Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions, study says”
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change
People read that and come to the conclusion it’s not their problem completely missing the point that the only reason those companies have those emissions is because of consumer demand.
All of this vitriol.
I guess if we want people to change we have to work with them on awareness first, and legislate changes that create disincentives for certain personal choices. Awareness should probably focus on high impact and easy to implement changes first that are not all or nothing.
We probably all have things we could improve on. Marko, you might not have a pet and drive a Tesla, but you do have a big house and fly to Europe regularly. I might have a cat and kids and fly, but I have a small house, drive very little, and am vegetarian. It is not about berating people, but about realizing what you can do and consciously making choices that offset your carbon footprint. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing all at once.
The biggest thing you can do to reduce your environmental impact is have fewer children, or none. Maybe you can offset this choice by contributing to family planning and education programs in areas that have a high birth rate in the developing world?
One of the easiest changes is diet. If you eat meat, eat less, or none at all and try to eat local food and grow your own if you can.
Fly less.
Drive less.
Buy second-hand everything you can (maybe not during a pandemic).
Get a cat rather than a dog, or a small dog rather than a big dog.
A more effective way than internet arguing, besides making personal decisions and changes, may be to get active and lobby for taxing personal choices that are high carbon footprint more to create a disincentive. One thing about covid is that people will have less money so that should reduce carbon emissions for a while.
I wonder if this is inventory to come later this year?
Some assessment went up and the old ones are still being used in those circumstances. I uploaded a condo where the system plugged in the old assessment (623k) and the new assessment was 801k. After a week I figured it out and changed it and guess what happened? Nothing….it’s not like someone saw a 170k increase and came and bought the place because now it was priced well below assessment (719k asking price).
I agree, the board should work with BC Assessments data feed to get this resolved asap but it’s a meaningless number. I can tell you in my 10 years and over 800+ transactions my clients fixated on assessments (one Uvic prof stands out) usually end up making bad purchases imo. Would be better to invest the assessment energy elsewhere when it comes to finding a home.
I am listing brand new houses right now and we don’t have the assessments or the taxes….life still goes on.
Just curious…in all these rants how come no one ever mentions the 100+ million dogs and 100+ million cats in North America alone? It’s always some big corporate crap screwing us over but god forbid someone suggests something that most people could actually do to help the environment.
Keep patting yourselves on the back as your dog food arrives to Petorama by truck, you drive an ICE, you live in a SFH, and you have multiple kids.
My favorite environment related thing I’ve heard on HHV defintively has to be the poster that said having kids in Canada is not an issue because of our lack of population growth completely ignoring the global population is increase at 70 million per year.
People just tell themselves what they want to hear and blaming corporations is a lot easier than taking some small actions yourself.
Sorry that I’m one of those person who is contributing to the Amazon destruction, because us Asian consumes large amount of soy beans among many other plants. However, we make our own soy milk and fresh tofu, and we dislike burgers.
Just ask any person from Ontario or any place that went with large scale PV energy and you will quickly find out why they hate it. The maintenance costs of wind power is very high combine with relatively short service lifetime and irregular power making it not viable with out government incentives (battery storage is not free). Geothermal is laughable at best because it doesn’t make financial sense except for bragging rights or a few rare places (over 15 year ago I worked in the geothermal field).
Thank you for your preaching, as an Asian I consumes much less meat than Caucasians. And, I don’t have to worry about my grandkids because I don’t have any children, and in the meantime I don’t pretend that I don’t use fossil fuel and it’s bi product in my daily lives .
I hope you don’t have pets, because your pet/s is likely consume more resource than a person out of that 1 billion who lives in poverty that you cited. And, I hope you don’t consume banana, palm/coconut oil, pineapple, sugar cane, tea, coffee, chocolate, avocado, and aloe vera among many other plants that are destroying the world tropical rain forests. The plants that you consumes are killing the “planet”, wiping out endanger animals, and worst of all child labour and slavery.
George Carlin – Saving the Planet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c
Leo S said: “Wonder if they’ll blame the virus for still not having new assessment data in the system.”
We are about to start April. They had plenty of notice before the start of the year. Do you think it is a coincidence that the mistakes are favouring higher home prices? By this point,it just starts looking like fraud.
Worse, I’ve been to open houses where property info pamphlets include the incorrect higher assessed value. And then, I’ve played dumb and asked the real estate agent on hand what the assessed value is. Guess what? Plenty of them are telling me the incorrect assessment value (same as the pamphlet).
So are some seasoned, professional real estate agents who are breathing in the industry every day honestly “forgetting” that the assessment numbers are wrong, or are they purposely telling lies?
Potential buyers, and especially actual recent buyers, should be furious. We are supposed to depend on real estate agents to be having our back, to be the experts, really?!?
Anyone who knows recent buyers, please ask them if they were misled about the assessed value. Perhaps they have kept documentation that stated the wrong assessed value?
Leo S, who can we contact to get actual action on this, and not just excuses?
/ And no, I don’t care if somebody thinks assessment value isn’t important. It does matter to people, and partially informs purchase decisions.
Thank you for your post RB. You made some great points, especially about the horrific treatment of animals in agriculture. I wish I could give you 10 thumbs up!
US cannot resist being #1
Jens in Vancouver has built an interactive data viz tool including breakdown by province and health region.
https://mountainmath.ca/shiny/canada_covid-19/
Wonder if they’ll blame the virus for still not having new assessment data in the system.
Who is this RB person? I like him/her.
Reading Soper’s posts over the past few weeks, it’s clear he’s moonlighting as a goddamned microbiologist/infectious diseases expert. Who knew?
From Wiki
Clearly explains why staying home works to flatten the curve.
James, stop being rational.
They believe Ebola actually was transmitted by eating fruit that was partially eaten by fruit bats.
None of these viruses get transmitted by eating infected animals, aside from Mad Cow disease, which isn’t from a virus (prions – aka misfolded proteins).
MERS is a camel disease. They’re not even raised for consumption.
Just listened to Dr, Henry; this is really not going well. Shortage of personnel protective gear for hospital staff. We dont make any of it in this country and what a surprise we cant buy it when there is a pandemic. My guess, and I really hope I am wrong, is that this will get extremely ugly in about three weeks.
@ QT I’m not sure how to quote, but you likely don’t want to hear what I have to say anyway.
Corona virus. SARS. MERS. Ebola. Avian Flu. Swine flu. Mad cow disease. Etc. See a pattern here?
We’ve unleashed these viruses due to our treatment of (eating) other animals. Antibiotics are being rendered useless for the same reason – because animal ag has recklessly been flooding sickly, tortured farmed animals with drugs for decades, poisoning the soil with their drug-laden urine & feces, killing the soil’s natural microbiome.
Care only about people? 1/3 of global crops, and 1/3 of global freshwater is wasted feeding farmed animals while over 1 billion humans are literally starving and water insecurity is their norm.
The Amazon – the earth’s lungs – is being burned largely for soy mono-crops eaten largely by the cattle raised there so westerners can have cheap burgers.
Solar/Wind/Geothermal and other technologies exist, but our addiction to – and corporate welfare to – fossil fuels, and animal ag runs deep, and the subsidies for emerging tech has been commensurately limited.
This latest virus is going to force changes. I suggest learning to like beans, and educating yourself on the Green New Deal, for the benefit of your grandkids. I didn’t have children, but still care about yours.
People are a little absent-minded right now. I had to go to the grocery store. On the way there I got rear ended by a car. As I was parallel parking 30 mins later I got hit by a passing bus. I’m fine, and sprayed everyone down with sanitizer (they were game), and seems like not at fault for either… my poor car though – has matching dents front and back. Stay home!
Best of luck with the move; difficult circumstances. Wishing you the best of luck and blessings in your new home.
They say moving is one of the top-five most stressful things in life. Throw in doing it with a toddler and a two-month-old. Then throw in doing it during a pandemic.
Jeezus. Props to you, and wishing you guys the best of luck!
We’re moving this weekend, lots of inconvenience but no outright disaster yet. Glad I grabbed some boxes a couple of weeks ago I can no longer get any from the liquor store, also glad I booked a truck early. We were using “daycare days” 2 days a week to really downsize and pack but we have kept my toddler home for 2 weeks now because of covid so we’re not at the pace we wanted to be. Have a 2 month old as well. Main problem with moving has been childcare for day-of… Friend who was going to watch kids is sick. Plan B friend just found out they’ve been exposed to someone who tested positive so they’re self isolating now. Parents are in 60s and in different cities so no help. Plan now is to put the toddler in a room with snacks and paw patrol and hope the baby is chill. Have a couple friends that will help us move, will maintain social distancing and all wearing gloves.
I see with the new rules announced we technically could stay in place and not be renovicted but we’ve paid April rent at the new home and need to get March rent back from current landlords and I don’t know how that would play out in getting our money back on either end if we stayed in place.
B.C. imposes moratorium on evictions, offers $500 a month for renters
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-imposes-moratorium-on-evictions-offers-500-a-month-for-renters-1.4867923
Doing so would be a great recipe for disaster, cooked up Victoria-style!
Eh, he’ll be railroaded at the State level…is my little guess. 🙂
Just in time for Trumps vision of packed churches and business as usual in the economy.
I wouldn’t advise anyone to sell their personal residence because they think they can buy back in later at a lower price. Particularly given the problems today. Stay home and relax.
@Leo S we do not have to sell right now. We originally listed as we were aware of another property coming online that we wanted to purchase, and then lost it in a bidding war. Thanks for your thoughts- definitely concerned about limited selection. Also wondering if this is our chance to sell while the market is high…
Ruh-oh : one and three month treasury bills are now yielding negative rates.
This means the big money would rather lose money in the short term than be in other things like equities. Not a good short term indicator for the stock market, but it’s to be expected when you consider mid April is being looked at as a possible peak in the US for infections.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/negative-rates-come-to-the-us-1-month-and-3-month-treasury-bill-yields-are-now-negative.html
Why were you selling in the first place? If not crucial to sell I think there is risk that it could be hard to find a replacement place in the coming weeks. Certainly there will be opportunity but very limited selection. Also consider if you want the stress of moving (Possibly twice) during the virus. This isn’t advice on your situation just some thoughts.
Humble GICs go from schlub to stud in just four weeks as stocks tumble
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-humble-gics-go-from-schlub-to-stud-in-just-four-weeks-as-stocks-tumble/
As I don’t partake in the stock market, I plunked my kids’ RESP into a 3-year rising-rate GIC last year. That’s turning out well, in hindsight.
21 year old w/ no prior condition in the UK dead today, a teenager w/ no priors in LA dead yesterday. 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients in New York were between 18 and 49. At some point people have to acknowledge that this isn’t just old people.
Update on our situation- our buyers financing fell through. Would you pull your property off the market at this point?
Yes, times like these are what an emergency fund is for. Thankfully haven’t had to dip into ours, but it’s certainly reassuring knowing that it’s there.
As tends to happen, the acute crisis will abate, some normalcy will return, and these incredibly low interest rates will stick around for many years to help the economy — which will inevitably cause people to borrow more to buy RE in places like Victoria, which will inflate prices further.
The main point I’m getting at: low interest rates will persist far longer than the immediate crisis will.
I know it has been joked about, but I do seriously think we’re going to have more divorces than usual as this goes on.
Christmas is already known as a time when stress, a lot of time together, and finance troubles combine to spike divorce rates. For many what we’re experiencing is those Christmas traits on steroids.
Even for wealthier couples, chances are they haven’t had to spend so much time together before, during their busy jet-setting lives.
And to keep on topic here: ergo more properties that eventually have to sell, although it will be a very delayed effect, takes a long time for divorces to be sorted out
Some fixed rates are tightening but not that much. Rates are still stupid low.
I think it’s just the momentum from before which was so strong it takes a while to unwind. In many ways it was a good time for a shock like this because we were starting from a strong base.
This is when we find out how accurate all those surveys were about Canadians living paycheque to paycheque
Manpower isn’t the issue. Skills are. Looking after people in nursing homes is a skilled job and you can’t just replace them with anyone you choose. Just any anybody who works in one.
The military are going to be needed to do the job they are trained to do – keep order.
Anyone in their teens or twenties who has been vaping for the last few years, is far more vulnerable to getting seriously ill from the virus than a healthy 60 or 70 year old. These young people have greatly compromised the health of their lining of the lungs. This is where the immune system resides and offers the main line of defence to all pathogens, including viruses and bacteria. Once that line of defence has been breached, the pathogen can attack the lung tissue with little chance of defeating it, and you die. If the government was truly concerned with the health of its citizens, they would immediately ban the sale of cigarettes and vaping supplies.
Please enlighten us with a solution of replacing industry, fossil energy, modern crop production, transportation, medicine, refrigeration, and sanitation that modern civilization is built upon.
What more urgent in the near future are devastating antibiotic resistant bacterias, viruses, and over population (9.7 billions people by 2050 with untreatable disease that would kill 10 millions people yearly, possibly 3 billions death in 4-5 years if we have something similar to the bubonic plague) that we must focus on as suggested by many experts and scientists, unless you don’t care about your children future let alone your grand children. And, thanks to non modern technology and lack of easy accessible/cheap energy, the black death in pre industrial age killed 30% to 60% of Europe population or and estimate of 75 to 200 million people in Eurasia (1/4 of the world population at that time), and it took 2 centuries for Europe to recovered.
Leo S said: “It is funny, sales down a lot in the last 14 days or so, but 30% (!!) of single family in the last week went for over ask”
Didn’t your data show that during the 2008 downturn Victoria prices and sales actually briefly went up a bit (before heading down around 10%)?
Is/was part of it the lower interest rates that people were pre-approved for, but they’re worried may be (as they are currently) higher rates when their pre-approval expires?
Unfortunately the military really hasnt been much of an election issue or any type of issue for Canadians for quite some time. So it remains imo quite a small force that is still underfunded. I think you’ll find that the military would be drastically unable to provide the manpower for such a mission.
Nice to see testing ramping up still. 3500 tests/day is not bad
It is funny, sales down a lot in the last 14 days or so, but 30% (!!) of single family in the last week went for over ask and 20% of condos.
Arrange priority food delivery to people over sixty who are self quarantining at home. Not perfect but it would reduce the load on hospitals and flatten the curve.
Give us a longer period of time to start producing our own basic medical supplies even if we have to mnationalie some plants in the short run.
Any of your clients having trouble moving?
Friend of mine is moving right now, and had a hell of a time just booking a mover because of the virus.
Barrister, you should be in charge 🙂
Local Fool: Assign the military to look after the nursing homes with personel there for a two month tour where they are quarentined with tthe people. Attach military doctors to the homes. Rotate the military out after two month tours and replace with fresh military.
This crisis is a rare opportunity to re-evaluate almost everything. That goes for individuals all the way up to nation states. Big changes will come out of this.
Well… looks like italy and spain managed to flatten the curve a bit.
We are now at the double flu deaths per day pace. 3 days later than what the pace on the 15th predicted. These are official deaths though… so likely higher.
US with 220 deaths today… and Trump talking about opening it back up at the end of 15 days.
Don’t know what people are expecting here in 2-3 weeks, but our greatest trading partner is going to be on it’s knees, and even if we open up everything, we’re not going to be producing much.
I get your logic model (I think) but in a practical sense, I’m not sure it would make much difference. There is no way to isolate that segment of the population well enough to avoid it, especially if it’s running rampant across the wider population. Even from behind their sealed doors, these people still need to eat food handled by folks on the outside, consume and use goods brought to them from the outside, and receive medical care by doctors that through their practice, will be unable to quarantine themselves. The nurses that care for them would be even less successful. We’re all connected in this whether we like it or not.
I suspect the effort to flatten the curve and get as much medical supplies prepared as possible is the least bad way to go, in the immediate term anyways.
Real estate market is just wtf….offer delay to tonight. We line up all the inspections and oil tank scan before deadline. My clients don’t need financing and they go in unconditional with a large deposit at an amount I thought was market value or maybe a bit higher, before COVID19. Four other offers and someone else takes it.
I still think the only logical choice is to use the next two weeks to come up with a plan to protect people over sixty and other vulnerable people to the greatest extent possible over the coming months. This would flatten the curve and give the hospitals a chance to function. Try to gear up the economy again although the tourist trade for Victoria is down the toilet. The vast majority of people under fifty will recouver from this virus and they are the major driver behind any economy. The best we can hope for is to minimize the deaths and damage from the outbreak. Get everybody over sixty into self imposed quarentine. Isolate and quarantine the nursing homes and staff.
I didn’t find it anywhere. Just seemed like an obvious point to make, given many are not paying attention to it. Even making the point, I still don’t think anyone including me, appreciates to what extent your quality of life and indeed life – depend on economic activity. Despite the federal government’s assurances, they cannot be a substitute, even for a short time, for an economy that isn’t functioning.
The internet can choose to think what it wants I guess, including the choice to be “outraged”. It changes exactly nothing. I posted the comment because I believe it. It’s not brutal, or kind. It’s neutral, and it’s intended to highlight the simple notion that lives hang in the balance either way. I don’t like Trump’s characterization of his plans to “reopen soon” though – it came across a bit like it’s a matter of human lives vs Dollars, which of course gave Bill Gates the ammo the make his rather amusing rebuttal.
In reality, the balance is human lives versus human lives and quality of those lives. Agree with one approach or another – it is what it is. I just hope this situation gets under control sooner rather than later so my point doesn’t have an opportunity to demonstrate itself.
@local_fool
Where did you find your statement about the cure being worse than the disease? I read your comment first then saw Trump post it a day later and something tells me he doesn’t troll HHV.
At first I thought it was a brutal post but no one seemed to say anything. Now there is outrage on the internet. I understand both side and I’m just curious where you saw it first.
Thanks and safe safe everyone
An Italian priest who gave a respirator to a younger coronavirus patient he did not know has died of the disease:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52015969
I heard from someone who works in Italian hospital, that doctors need to make very very tough decision: they have to take off ventilator from patients who are older and in more severer conditions, to give to those who may have better chance. Very sad. But I would make the same choice as Father Berardelli if we ever get to that stage, hopefully never.
Unfortunately it looks like spending on things like environment and climate change is being put off due to all money going to virus response.
So many knockdown effects of clearing out the hospitals of all non-emerg cases. Who knows what public health impact will be of kicking that can.
But yeah fewer traffic deaths is good. Hey maybe this gets ICBC out of their hole if everyone is paying their insurance but hardly crashing
A few thoughts.
There will be at least individual deals but likely a bit too early for that. Keep your eyes open. The ASAP is a bit of an issue there since that doesn’t leave you with a lot of latitude. Lots of options for short term rentals becoming available as AirBnB hosts look to bridge their empty condos over this crisis and are offering a month or two furnished places.
I would be careful about year long rental. Market could dip and roar back in that time.
Stock Market is obviously very volatile, today was a big day up but we’ll surely see more down days. Cash is only way to guarantee preserve it for the short term.
Even with the 23 COVID patients ICUs across BC at 55% capacity…lower than the average for this time of year. Probably less people out doing stupid crap that lands them in ICU.
Maybe they’ll issue coronavirus bonds to raise money
The air is cleaner. Water is running clear in Venice canals & likely most everywhere. The stars are brighter. Wildlife are returning. We can either learn from this pandemic, and kiss the industries destroying the planet goodbye, or push to return to our collective toxic ways, ravaging our only planet like locust, eventually encountering the next pandemic, killing ourselves for the sake of greed. I vote for the former. Seems the provincial & federal government are happy to kick the can down to road to their grandchildren.
Fair enough…only thing I don’t like is opening lockboxes/door handles. Once inside the house no real need to touch anything.
Good. I think we need to find ways to keep part of the economy running and RE can be made pretty low risk
No open houses
No handshakes
DocuSign
Zoom instead of coffee
Screening clients
3D tours
Limited private showings
No driving clients around
Never been a better time to buy a house.
“They are even keeping the liquor stores open.”
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/23/liquor-stores-dispensaries-closing-denver-shelter-in-place/
Even realtors are consider essential…..ha ha.
Consumers could face hit to credit scores, jump in payments from mortgage deferrals
If you read the exemptions for Ontario you will see very few businesses (in terms of employees) will have to close that aren’t already closed. They are even keeping the liquor stores open.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6717022/ontario-doug-ford-coronavirus-covid-19-march-23/
Jeebus. Even Hawk wouldn’t have gone this far. Even worse, wait another week after much of Ontario closes. 1 million might look quaint. We will soon discover, we can’t shut everything down for long without what will amount to an economic and humanitarian catastrophe.
On the other hand:
Leo you will have to update that graph soon. ..https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jobless-claims-soar-to-nearly-1m-in-canada-1.1411669
Almost 1 million EI applications
Crystal Ball.
IF you need income, rental is the way to go.( either short term or long term , they all work well)
IF you focus appreciation value in the long run, a house will do. but it is unlikely to have both at the same time.
Stew Young, some inspiration for you
https://twitter.com/vote4robgill/status/1242451393761497089?s=21
Vietnam has been dealing with avian flus for years and has been very diligent and organized about it. I also wouldn’t describe Vietnam as a “backwater” country.
We are in this boat, too. But we are retired and have no pension (also too young for CPP/OAS). We always keep at least 5 years living expenses in cash (since we retired in 2008), so we can take care ourselves and help loved ones and others, when disasters like this or worse strike. But we did buy some dividend stocks recently and have orders to buy more VCNS/VBAL/XAW.
Here’s our situation- just sold our house, hoping to buy a property that we lost in a bidding war. Was not anticipating a pandemic in the meantime. Now we are sitting on a fairly large down payment looking for a) another property asap b) short term rental c) yearly rental. Advice, thoughts, ideas? What to do with a large sum of $$ in the interim?
Unfortunately, I agree. The principal reason asset valuations are where they are is due to CB manipulation. Now they’re repeating their 2008 intervention all over again – and then some. I believe the word floating around is, “unlimited QE”.
I shudder to think of what home prices could do in some regions, and the long term consequences of this. I’d rather see home valuations drop 20% and be stable, than see them go up another 40% in 3 years.
In 20 years or so, it will be interesting to see what effect this all has on the long term housing cycles in this region – very difficult to gauge conventionally with all this meddling. At the very least, increasing distortions and volatility could be a fact of life. But who knows? Maybe it won’t do anything this time around and assets just somehow sit there doing nothing…
I’m in this boat as well after going cash summer last year. With the “damn the torpedos” approach of central banks, assets are likely to go stratospheric once the worst is in our rear view mirror. Even with stocks sharply bouncing today, I think there is a fair bit left to go on the downside. Another 20-30% down and I’ll go stocks and forego entertaining the idea of more real estate. The upside will be too hard to ignore at that point.
Interesting, albeit scary, statistic:
“it took 67 days to confirm the first 100,000 COVID-19 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000 and four days for the next 100,000 cases.”
Why our first rate medical system is showing cracks under COVID-19 pressure, when some backwater countries are well prepared for the onslaught and was able to developed their own reliable and quick (result in 70 minutes) test at a mere $21 USD per test kit (50 tests per kit) or $0.42 USD per test for export?
Why it’s so difficult to get tested for COVID-19 in Canada, https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-testing-shortages-1.5503926
“You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director-general, said in a briefing on Monday.
But right now, Canada does not know who is infected. Or how many people are infected.
20 countries, territories order Covid-19 test kits made in Vietnam, https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/20-countries-territories-order-covid-19-test-kits-made-in-vietnam-4070785.html
Viet had said earlier that his company could make 10,000 kits a day, and triple the capacity if needed.
The Vietnamese test kits provide quicker results and are easier to use than those used by the U.S. Center for Disease Control and the World Health Organization, according to the science ministry.
“We are setting up army field hospitals in NYC and people are saying we can be back to normal in 2-3 weeks. Can people be so oblivious. We need to continue to educate people on the reality of this plague”
https://twitter.com/icedoc61
Foormer Landlorrd is spot on in my opinion. Canada is clearly not testing the majority of suspected Covid cases. This is not a criticizem but rather simply a fact. Comparing hospitaliations and death rates is far more valid.
The dragon is out of the cage in both Canada and the US. The majority of the population will get infected over the next few months. The only issue is the rate of infection and to what extent each country can flatten the curve in an attempt to minimize the damage to their medical infrastructure. The only real tool on hand is social distancing at the moment. I might flaten the curve out a little and maybe avoid the total collapse of he hospital system.
Yeah right. It’s very difficult for US seniors to immigrate to Canada in normal times, and it sure isn’t going to get any easier.
Not really. B.C.’s doubling rate is three to four days for infected patients, which is similar to Italy. Don’t see how comparing us to the US puts us in the back patting category. And give it a week.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-doctors-letter-covid-19-1.5505839
At this point the US seems to be catching up on testing it is hard to compare these kind of numbers without taking the test rate into account. You could also compare the death rate between New York (under 1%) and France (almost 4 %) and say NY is looking great.
Comparing confirmed cases between regions that have different testing strategies is almost meaningless at this point. The numbers we should be comparinf are growth in hospitalizations, ICU patients and deaths.
At this point we have no idea how many infected are sitting at home (we hope) without being tested.
Canada (38 Mil) is about 11.5% of the population of the USA (327 Mil). Yet, we have less than 4% of the Covid cases they have. Today, we have a total of 1,646 cases. The US has 46,145. So first off, good job Canada.
Secondly, the latest news coming out of the States (through Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick) is that they might be prepared to sacrifice their health, to get the economy back up and running. Wow.
Maybe this is gonna result in a lot of older Americans moving to Canada and buying up our real estate.
And the Canadian dollar is worth 69 cents US today, so that’s a lot of buying power Americans have.
Just a thought …..
Canada neither.
less than 3% of 1.8m is easy to produce within two trades on IB. so to the owner of 3 units( and one house) , you will be fine.
to the owner who brought into janion or era at $1000/sf, it’s just a business risk. DO not sell , the paper loss will get recovered by next tourism season so yo can earn up to 45k to 50k per unit.
what really worry me is the lack of leadership in the federal government.
I’m new on here so don’t really know how to quote.
Useful numbers on listings and cancellations.
Personal, I’ve got a couple hundred thousand in cash. Not sure whether to put it into value stocks or wait for real estate decline or some lesser combination. Anyone in the same boat?
Well, according to David Rosenberg, this event is more like 9-11 than 2008….
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-stop-looking-to-2008-this-crisis-is-more-like-9-11?video_autoplay=true
New York isn’t faring well at all.
That is good advice Leo S.
Prices are very sticky. Needs several months of sustained economic disruption to move prices anywhere. Real estate market is like a supertanker, it takes a lot to move it.
Note that in extraordinary markets it’s often the individual deals that detach from the average. That’s true on the way down where buyers can find desperate sellers and get a favourable price, and on the way up where sellers can get above market prices due to overheated markets (2016/17).
Yes, they should only release this to regular HHV posters 🙂
In a normal market yes, but I don’t believe it’s necessary if the market is truly locked up. If 20 people absolutely need to sell but there’s only 10 buyers then prices drop regardless of inventory.
We’re not there yet though. I don’t really see a compelling reason for the market to lock up unless we get to full blown outbreak here.
Unclear exactly how many must-sellers there will be.
Marko said:
“Won’t see any dip in prices until inventory starts going up, not down.”
Not if the number of buyers goes down even more than the inventory. If someone is a potential buyer, why would they want to rush a purchase now at ‘regular’price when every indication for the economy (and ergo prices) is flashing bright red?
Also, those listing cancellations are probably going to be back sooner or later, are just delayed inventory. As Leo S has mentioned too, some motivated sellers may realize they may not be willing to wait things out another year to see what happens in the far away 2021 spring/summer market, and price at a discount now: estate sales, divorces, foreclosures, investors who have seen a huge gain over several years and want out even if at a discount, etc.
Totoro: Rightly or wrongly, I think the fear is that people will not self distance if they believe there are no cases in their community. Some truth to this view.
As we all know, the closest “recent” big financial crisis Canada has been through before now was the 2008 financial crisis precipitated by the collapse of housing/lending bubble in the U.S. and many parts of the world.
So as an admittedly very rough guide, I have tried to pay attention to what happened to Victoria real estate at that time: in general a roughly 10% decline within several months, followed by a return to previous prices.
But wait a minute. Remembering how the 2008 financial crisis in Canada unfolded, in fact it wasn’t even all that bad for Canadians, was it? Remember how proud Canada was that our banking system escaped the worst (it was a model for the world!), and didn’t allow the same sort of mortgage lending madness that occurred in the U.S.? Sure, Canada was hit by some shrapnel and tremors coming from the gigantic U.S./global financial explosion, but is was nothing at all like the foreclosures en masse, bankruptcies, and 50%+ price drops in numerous U.S. housing markets. It was kind of a picnic for Canada, comparatively.
The Covid-19 financial catastrophe seems totally different for Canada. Instant mass unemployment Canada-wide, perhaps up to 30%. Instant and complete crippling of tourism and travel sectors, for at least several months. Retail and service sectors mostly taken out of action. The scope of Canadian bankruptcies still to come, but surely more than in 2008, no?
If we say that in 2008 Canada’s economy suffered strong aftershocks and shrapnel wounds from the financial atomic bomb that went off in the U.S. and rest of non-Canada world, would it not be fair to say that by comparison in 2020 Canada and every world economy have each taken direct hits by financial atomic bombs?
Consequently, wouldn’t it be better for us to look towards the U.S. collapse of 2008 for vague hints as to what’s in store for Canada this time, rather than just looking at what happened during Canada’s 2008 picnic? Or perhaps somewhere between those two?
When the doom and gloom of a crisis is still in progress, I recognize that paranoia reigns and some people tend to overexaggerate the economic repercussions. That certainly happened in the midst of the 2008 problems. Is that what I’m doing here, in supposing that this time around is far worse for Canada than the 2008 crisis?
Just disclose the information. I don’t see any violation of privacy laws by giving out more specific location data without other identifying information.
There is now a covid-19 outbreak map for Canada. But, as noted at the top of the site, it is not exact and case locations are randomly placed within the closest proximity of the local health authority. Many people have been asking for this but I think there is good and bad in disclosing data like this.
http://canadacovid-19.ca/ (site seems to be under heavy load)
Today so far
– 21 new listings
– 17 sold listings
– 10 cancellations
Won’t see any dip in prices until inventory starts going up, not down.
When people are forced to. I think you will see listings drop and only if this last a few months will you see prices drop.
It ‘s interest that despite all of these concerns, real estate prices do not seem to be declining yet. Any opinions on when those could take place?
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
John Hopkins
This is an incredible important website. Hit the country and than right hand bottom daily increases.
Country be country we need to see it go down like China and South Korea.
Thanks. That should have said Ontario.
President of Canada I assume you meant?
Ontario’s parliament is based out of Toronto.
For better or worse (and it is worse) the dragon is out of the cage and I suspect that we will start to look like Spain or England fairly soon. Not sure how long it will take to burn threw the whole population but wild guess of four to six more months.
The social isolation might slow down the numbers a little bit. I suspect that tourism will take a year to recouver.
The good thing for Victoria is the number of government jobs that will form a foundation for the economy here. Too early to tell but this might be the Black swan that kills the real estate market here in BC.
Back of the napkin math.
Let’s say $450,000 condos with $400,000 loans.
Morgage + strata + taxes = $2500 * 4 = $10,000/month
If you own ~$1.8M in rental condos, then I would hope you have the ability to access $30,000 – $50,000 in cash/debt to cover vacancies for a few months.
i/ If you have 3-4 condos you probably have a large income (I can tell you from personal experience rental income counts for very little) so likely you have some saavy/savings.
ii/ Highly unlikely that ALL of your renters would not be able to pay rent.
iii/ Most people would have some equity and be able to re-mortgage or do a line of credit to make payments.
etc., etc.
I am not concerned about the long term rentals. The ones that will be in trouble is people who paid 500k for 1 bedroom units at the Union to AirBnB.
There is also a difference between terminations and layoffs. Layoffs mean there is an expected return date. If it is a termination the employer also is required to pay notice pay. I am assuming most of the EI applications are due to layoffs not termination.
Would anyone have a big enough contingency fund to cover mortgage payments on 3-4 condos with no or restricted rent amounts coming in?
I went to the bank machine and waited outside until it was clear to go in and in that time 6 old people all went in and out with no social distancing at all. I wanted to scream we’re doing this for you could you help us out here for f*** sake.
Today’s Covid number: 48 new cases for past two days, 2 of them on the island. This is much better than 70+/daily increases. It’s still early days, but hopefully more people are doing SD and self isolating to flat the curve.
Actually shouldn’t be it “physical distancing” rather than “social distancing”? We don’t want anyone to be/feel socially isolated in this difficult time.
More on positive side: TC raised over $1M (helping vulnerable ones) donation funds in just a day and half; Victoria Cat hotel offers free board for cat-owners hospitalized due to Covid.
Here are some more positive or less doom/gloom articles. I agree with Marko that we can’t just shut everything down indefinitely. We need a limit. Many more lives could be lost or negatively impacted if a full-blown economic depression sets in. A balanced approach is needed to weight the costs/benefits on both sides.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/nobel-laureate-why-coronavirus-crisis-may-be-over-sooner-than-you-think
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
The four years I worked in ICU I saw at least two people died from infected tooth abscesses….there are just so many consequenes to shutting everything down for a prolonged period of time.
More then 30,000 dental hygienists in Canada and almost 100% of them got laid off over the course of a couple days as each province was different by a day or two as to when dental work was restricted to essential dental work only. Thats not the only example but its the one my wife is living through right now. Thankfully we are prepared for a period like this but thats how we get 500k claims in such a short period…….
Steve said: “The central banks created a wealth effect bubble by printing trillions of debt and its all deflating”
Still talk of deflation, despite trillions of dollars about to be printed in U.S. Can somebody explain why the idea that adding more fiat money into the system causes inflation… doesn’t apply now? Is it just about controlling where that money goes so that it doesn’t inflate the most important things (food, rent)?
Anna Edwards said: “I’m wondering about what happens when some people have 3-4 rental condos and their tenants lose their jobs”
I’ve heard that other than what government intervention mandates, it will differ by owner. Some apartment building owners may be willing to look at deferring rent on a case by case demonstrated needs basis, and others are saying “if they don’t pay, start the eviction process”.
It doesn’t help that there will always be people who try to unfairly take advantage of any deferrals or subsidies they don’t need, but a couple of bad apples is no excuse for owners to throw up their hands and coldly decide to just evict them all.
The landlord covers expenses from their contingency funds. Oh, you mean if they don’t have contingency funds?
Ouch – Premier of Ottawa just ordered all non-essential businesses in the Province closed for at least two weeks.
I’m wondering about what happens when some people have 3-4 rental condos and their tenants lose their jobs and are unable to pay their rent. Or even if they can only pay some of their rent.
I just added the normal levels of claims (~250,000) to the one week figure the PM cited. Very likely the final total will be substantially higher as I’m sure we aren’t back to normal levels after one week. Call it a very conservative estimate.
Correct. “Statistics Canada defines unemployed persons as those who were available for work during the survey reference week (when labour force statistics are collected), but: were without work and had looked for work in the past four weeks; were on temporary layoff due to business conditions and expected to return to work; were waiting for a new job to begin within four weeks.”
So if I’m understanding that correctly within 4 weeks we should see the unemployment rate spike as well, however no one knows how long that could last.
It’s not that there’s no buffer, it’s that it doesn’t make sense to spend the buffer on paying employees that are not working. That is what EI is there for after all. If the companies go under when this is over we are all in much worse pain than if they just lay people off for 6 weeks and pick up most of them again then.
Fresh graffiti in China town:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/fn4cgv/dr_schnabel_goes_out_for_a_night_on_the_town/
Yes very good point. Not quite apples to apples
“…but I still don’t understand how employers could have been so primed to fire so many.”
Because they’ve been ordered shut? Employers also pay EI premiums you know.
The government has extended EI eligibility to a very large number of people who previously would not qualify, such as the self-employed and part-timers. These are the people who are most affected in this downturn. As well as in previous downturns, but they couldn’t apply back then.
I made sure my employee had enough hours for EI (and I made sure she could live of EI) and then I let her go, she understood as she saw all the emails with everyone cancelling listings going forward. I have a buffer and I am not worried about the virus personally, but I am certainly worried about a recession/depression coming out of this so I would like the buffer to be as big as possible. I can’t print money like the government can to have people sitting around doing nothing.
I also think with some common sense changes and reduced crews many construction activities are low risk. Not all of course.
I don’t think people realize the consequences ceasing construction for an extended period of time. It will be complete chaos with projects going under and the government is not going to be able to bail every single industry out. It isn’t a simple as taking a break and coming back….if developer can’t get financing going forward Campbell isn’t coming back and as they aren’t getting paid. Everyone is screwed from the developer to Campbell to people working for Campbell.
Government should just shut everything down across the board for 2-3 weeks to make everyone happy and go from there. The unceratinly in all of this is probably worse than a shut down.
I would expect lots of industries to do very poorly over the next few months, but I still don’t understand how employers could have been so primed to fire so many. At the beginning of the week, they’re complaining they can’t find people to fill roles and 3 days later they’re letting all entry-level employees go? Most businesses that just let a ton of people go are chains that have revenue in the 100s of millions. Do these businesses seriously operate with no buffer at all?
It’s always the case in recessions that there’s employment overcorrection. Employers use it as an excuse to fire anyone they ever had any incline to fire because they’ve got the excuse of “the economy”. Locally I’ve heard of video game developers letting programmers go. There’s no way that industry isn’t seeing an increase in revenue right now.
Looks like tough times at Campbell, they took down facebook and instagram… Knappet shut down, haven’t heard anything about farmer yet
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/fnc4n7/campbell_construction_is_bullying_their/
https://ca.indeed.com/cmp/Campbell-Construction-Ltd./reviews
Josh
airlines
hotels
restaurants
personal services
all travel related
oil and gas
these industries have seen their revenue disappear and have to cut quickly to keep from going bankrupt. Its not like seeing revenue go from 100 to 90%. a lot of the case its 100% to 30 or less %. We will seem 1 to 2 million more Canadians loss their jobs in the next few weeks.
Because many employers have shut down for safety reasons. Not to say a lot won’t close permanently.
That EI claims graph is absolutely terrifying. I’m full of questions. How could that many employers have been so trigger happy with pink slips? Does no one operate a business with a buffer? They don’t even know how long this will last – they just fired en masse. Or did they? These are EI applications and not a direct indicator of mass unemployment, right? Obviously they would correlate. I just don’t understand how so many jobs could be so precarious when things were roaring a week earlier.
Perhaps. Keep in mind if their trading partners aren’t interested in trading (especially if it’s a major partner), I’m not sure to what extent it helps.
Could you help me understand that EI graph? I thought that there were 500k claims – it looks like it says 750k.
Edit: I think I get what you’re doing there 🙂
ha ha….I don’t think the extra business day will be of much help.
EI claims chart put into perspective that this cannot possibly last otherwise we are headed for a depression.
We seem to have three types of countries emerging.
Countries in the first group can get their economies back up and running quite quickly, even if at a somewhat reduced capacity. Countries in the last group will suffer many needless deaths and a catastrophic several weeks/months of pandemonium, but then come back online when the disease runs its course. Countries in the middle group may end up suffering the most economically as the primary method of keeping cases down is shutting down the economy. There aren’t enough cases to bring about herd immunity anytime soon, and there aren’t few enough to lift restrictions.
I have a suspicion Trump may be going for option #3. Not because of some evil plan, but realistically the US has zero chance at achieving #1, and #2 kills his election chances and isn’t in character for him.