Stocks and flows

My lead is so large I can coast.

What a fun graphic. And I bet those numbers don’t include the old (original) HHV blog.

Leo, another neat ranking would be comment author by longest continuous presence. That is, who’s been here the longest without taking more than, say, a two-week break from commenting.

If that one’s too tricky, get the AI to do it 😉

Yup, mute is working fine.

Yes an no Rich. In the past an investor would drive up the prices of the starter homes as the improvements did not contribute to the value of the property as whole. Then they would build a home with a suite when it became economically feasible. Two units where there once was one. But with the current requirement to take down a home by hand, those small time investor/developers seem not to be as interested and you will find the starter homes priced at or below the value of a vacant site to account for the costly demolition requirement. The small time investor will get a better return buying a vacant lot in a new subdivision in Langford than one in say the general Burnside area. Even in Oaklands there have been a couple of starter homes sell below land value.

My opinion is that the current requirement to demolish a home is just causing some areas in Victoria to remain -for the lack of a better word – slummy. If it is in the best interest of the environment to hand demolish a building then the requirement should be for all municipalities not just Victoria. Otherwise investors will just go to the next municipality where it’s cheaper to build and Victoria gets left behind.

Thanks for the info on the mute button.

This mute button is genius! Thank you. You are like Elon at Twitter, shouldn’t take a year to deal with a button 🙂

An investor-occupant is someone who rents out a separate dwelling that is part of the property that they own and live in. I would think that would be overwhelmingly basement suites in Victoria CMA, and that map is about what you’d expect.

That’s pretty cool info Leo S.

More or less a non-factor in prices.

How does Victoria have 20% investor ownership and yet not a single area of the CMA comes close?

While I dont want to mute anybody, I do have a question. Is it possible to make the mute button to require a confirming click? I dont want to accidently mute someone without knowing it. Thanks Leo.

Interesting article from StatsCan. Thank you for sharing this.

Just saw this posted regarding residential real estate investors, may be of interest: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2023001/article/00002-eng.htm

I know people that own homes in Edmonton, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon. They don’t tend to complain about house prices. They do complain about tipping in restaurants though. What I have found is when most people buy homes in an area that are very affordable to them, they don’t try paying the mortgage down, they make only the minimum payment on their student loans, they don’t pay their credit card balance off each month, they eat out more, buy a car more often and go on more vacations. In other words, they make sure they have no money left at the end of each month. So when they shouldn’t be financially strapped, they take action to make sure they are.
It all comes down to personality types in many cases.

Money isn’t everything. Some people like doctors and nurses get some sort of profound satisfaction from their work to help the sick and dying. You can make a ton of money like Marko or Greg Martel, but I’m not sure they are really getting a sense of personal satisfaction and meaning in their work. I think personally I would feel better about myself if I were saving lives at @$150,000 per year rather than selling houses and making much more than $300,000 per year. Can someone ask Marko about this, since he is blocking me. 😉

The fact is that people really don’t have equal opportunities or abilities

That’s just life. I was born a white 6′ male in Europe which already put me ahead of 95% of the global population. Not sure what I am suppose to do about that.

There are ways around them if you are able-bodied high earners, have above-average aptitude in something lucrative, work really hard, live frugally, start small, have side hustles, are on board for creative problem-solving, have family help and have stable personal relationships.

100% agreed. You can work 36.5 hrs per week and buy a dog named Bobby you spend money on and I can work 72 hrs per week and invest in Telus stock so I can collect my dividends. You can spend 6 years in school getting a masters in English which leads to a 60k/year job and I can spend 6 years in school obtain a cardiac perfusionist designation that pays $200k/year. You can buy a house for 1/2 the price in Calgary or double in Vancouver. With the advent of the internet none of this is a mystery. I can buy Telus shares on my phone in less time it takes someone to pick up their dog’s business.

I find it annoying when people go down a path that is clearly defined and then complain about the outcome at the end. No s*** you are going to have a tougher time finding employment and buying a home with an english degree versus nursing.

If you think a SFH is what you need to make you happy one day maybe go down a path that pays well with a combination of some of the things Totoro listed above.

I don’t know who the most balanced post-er on HHV might be and I’m unlikely to discover their identity as I don’t read posts by anyone of that description. Another quote from Saint Margaret is (as always) on-point:

“Consensus: “The process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values, and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects; the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved, merely because you cannot get agreement on the way ahead. What great cause would have been fought and won under the banner: ‘I stand for consensus?”

Further to this, the current housing affordably crisis is the result of multiple policy failures by government. Not due to the failing of any ordinary individual.

I find it odd that blaming governments is practically a national pastime, yet for some reason when we’re looking at housing affordability it’s due to individual failure according to some. Perhaps the problem is confusing good luck with hard work. And yes I had good luck making a purchase decades ago that someone could not do today with a comparable income.

People are not all the same. There is a fine line between taking personal responsibility for what happens in your life and failing to accurately assess how much of your success could be replicated by others based on their aptitudes and backgrounds.

I come from a disadvantaged background. I paid for my own education by working full-time while going to school full-time, along with some student loans which I paid back asap. I also saved up my own down payment. While I “embraced risk and took personal responsibility”, I acknowledge that I still had advantages in this that allowed me to pursue economic security. For example, I was inclined towards entrepreneurship and research at a time when the internet opened new opportunities. I was also able bodied without any serious health conditions or addiction issues. And I bought a home more than ten years ago.

The fact is that people really don’t have equal opportunities or abilities in Canada and a social safety net is good for everyone imo. There are many paths to stability and happiness, but the excessively high prices for RE and rental housing in Victoria vs. incomes have thrown up barriers to housing security that you and I did not face.

There are ways around them if you are able-bodied high earners, have above-average aptitude in something lucrative, work really hard, live frugally, start small, have side hustles, are on board for creative problem-solving, have family help and have stable personal relationships. But there is a timeline to life, things do not go perfectly, and there can be competing priorities – like having children and spending time with them.

What is the no read list and how does one create it? Asking for a friend.

Leo posted browser instructions a few days ago for blocking out certain posters. I still think he should integrate it into the platform with a little side bar showing everyone you’ve blocked and can unblock around Christmas time so we can all wish eachother happy holidays, and see eachothers predictions for the next year.

What is the no read list and how does one create it? Asking for a friend.

@ marko – noli illegitimi carborundum

A cargo-pilot colleague was getting ready to depart YVR for ZRH with a B767 load of seafood. The airplane had originated in Hawaii, collecting live crab there, and then more live crab in Seattle. Now in Vancouver, another load of live crab in similar two-meter square shallow tubs was placed on board, all bound for Europe. He was inspecting the load before departure as we do and noticed that while most of the tubs were secured with a fine mesh over the top, there were a number that were totally open, potentially allowing hundreds of crabs to clamber out and infest the airplane.

That would be a problem of course so he called the ground crew to rectify the problem before take-off. They went back into the hold but returned immediately saying confidently that no mesh would be required. Those particular open-topped tubs contained the Canadian crabs and as soon as any single crab climbed near the rim the entire mass of crabs remaining below would grab him and throw him to the bottom.

These are the people sniping at you from behind uninspired handles, and they are the same people who have voted in an inept government whose only apparent motive is to dress impotent envy as social justice. “Speculator” tax?

Not to despair, no confiscatory socialist project has ever succeeded and never will, primarily because, as Saint Margaret of Grantham observed, ” the problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other peoples’ money”. So as the dreary cabal start another spending round, this time borrowing against our great-great-grandchildren’s future wages we can hope the end is near.

It’s people like Marko who embrace risk, take personal responsibility for their success or failure, assent to something more than 7 hours of pencil-pushing daily, and invest prudently in their own social setting that will drag us back from the abyss.

I’m a fan.

Not seeing any market odds of a BOC rate hike in June of >30%

most of the nicest people I know… [and] increasing the birth rate

I cannot believe those old saws are still used. I still remember the first time an old white European told us it was our duty to make more white children. This is 2023 not 1939, ffs.

Desertification and extreme weather events will directly lead to internal and external migration

Count me in as part of the problem: Because of the increasingly hot temps, fires, smoke, and floods in the South Thompson Region, early this spring we moved to Victoria and bought an 1100 sq ft house here.

Everywhere I’ve lived in BC, the “locals” have wanted to pull up the draw-bridge and let no one else in -covid exiles leaving the city, back-to-the-landers, draft dodgers, pioneers…and this attitude goes back to the days of oral history.

Get used to it! Canada, BC, and Victoria are desirable places to live and people move around if they want to.

Someone here whose family emigrated from Europe mentioned the differing definitions of housing. The most ridiculous example of western excess can be seen in the North Okanagan where there are no shortage of elder couples buying brand new 3500 sq ft houses…soon that will no longer be viable and us westerners will have to “expect less.”

Looks like everything is unaffordable. How did that happen?

Many reasons, one of that is because out of province investors keep buying properties here. I am pretty sure housing affordable would be improved if all levels of investors out of the market.

Not to mention the properties their wealthy parents are buying for their children to live in and rent out rooms to their classmates.

Marco , you are both lying and denying. Here is #4. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXDwv-CpXbk
Show me the other six and you then become an honest person. Until then we all exaggerate so do you~~

5, 6 and 7 below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXDwv-CpXbk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXDwv-CpXbk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXDwv-CpXbk

Wonder if we are looking at another interest rate bump?

It’s more of a debate of how large of a bump now.

Most realtors would never disclose this information, they stick to “houses are still selling over asking”, “no supply”, “better buy now”.

I think the ones on here would provide a more objective response. Realtors, especially established ones would have a better sense of what is happening on the ground right now better than those watching realtor.ca.

Marco, You are welcome!

Rich not directed at u

Friendly, thank you for posting a mere posting testimonially for the 10th time.

There is no need for anyone to waste their time coming to my defense…..this is very light stuff in relation to other platforms I participate in. Someone called me an Ustasha (Croatian fascist) on another platform today lol.

+1 Marko is a great Salesperson. 100%

Marko don’t get upset by the people here that are attempting to rile you. You have big shoulders and you can handle it. No pain, no gain. You are a clever guy and you know what you are doing.

Using this free platform to sell yourself and your product (real estate), in order to gather gather new clients is the smart and prudent way to go. You give very good advise and this builds trust. The mark of a true (and good) salesperson. Good for you!!

Perhaps you prefer Marko’s way of debating… responses such as “you can’t read,” “everything you are saying is nonsense” and “I’m going to ignore you because I don’t agree with your logic.” Marko and allies, just to clarify I put quotation marks to signify speech, but those were not his exact words.

you are doing well indeed

That was a sincere compliment Marko. No need for a point by point rebuttal. Heck even if you are making 1/3 of Leo’s estimate and living a fulfilling life you are doing fantastic.

indirect threats

Such Indirect threats and, suggestions of physical & financial violence is why most sites are moderated.
If one resorts to personal intimidation to win a debate, they are not debating and might be better off at a MMA fight club.

During Covid immigration was essentially cut to zero but it did not decrease the housing prices. The only thing that will make it possible to have everyone to live in a residence of their choice is to build enough for them to choose from.
This is a long-term fix, since it will require an increase in building residential properties nationwide. Not just in Victoria as others have pointed out. A long-term commitment by the government to support this would potentially also change investors expectations of real estate always being a safe bet.
I am not sure how much office space is empty in Victoria due to remote work, but I am sure there is a lot sitting empty across the country. Maybe there is an opportunity to rezone these and convert to residential.

Knowing the past sale’s history is a fun fact on a listed or recently sold property. But the further apart those dates are, the less reliable the sale’s history as an indicator of the properties present value becomes unless you know how to interpret the data. Simply using the published HPI isn’t going to be much help as it is too broad of a factor that incorporates dissimilar properties over too large of a geographical area. The underlying assumption when determining a time factor is that the property in question has not significantly changed in condition between the two time periods and that the property was originally purchased at fair market value.

All Automated Valuation Models, AVMs like Zillow or Landcor, depend heavily on past sale’s history and for anyone that has ever used them the results are hit and miss. There are, in my opinion, better ways to statistically estimate the value of a property but they all require human input to make judgement calls developed through personal experience and knowledge of the data. Think of the difficulty in determining the contributory value of a water view of a property on the fourth floor of a high rise to that of a view on the 12th floor. Identical floor plans but a substantial difference in price.

I suppose someday someone will develop an AI application that can do this. But at this time, those companies that have tried are still getting inconsistent results.

How mature of you.

Seriously though, it is very easy to commit identity theft. If you haven’t had it happen to you after visiting third world countries or even Surrey and Toronto (just my personal experiences), then you can count yourself fortunate. Imagine how much someone could get a loan for or LOC or credit card given your credit rating, net worth and high income. And now your address, name, home town, middle name, age birth date, and other private details are floating online. Im scared for you.

Ok so we can agree that it could help to temporarily reduce immigration and a consequence of that would be a lower standard of living, but it would be for the greater good of everyone if we start solving the problem of inadequate numbers of long term shelters for the homeless and Middle class of Canada.

Take a hike Marko! Haha 🙂

you can still be a target of armed robbery, credit card theft, identity theft, extortion and other criminal ventures. Sometimes its best to keep your mouth shut and lay low dude. Too late in your case and given your profession, but maybe a learning opportunity for your fan club.

Jesus, people are dilusional. I carry $20 cash on me. My credit card has a small limit on it and would be cut off by Visa….extortion, lol? I have a 1,000 real estate transactions under my belt in Victoria. If someone wants to impact me financially they could simply post about a poor business transaction they had with me on HHV and all of a sudden I have a pretty big problem on my hands. A tenant could post about how I treated them poorly/unfairly.

Yes someone could in theory steal my identity and all the titles to my properties, yes credit unions could all collapse and people could lose their savings, someone could stab me because they are jealous of my $28,000 car worth less than their new Honda Civic, my 2 year old jeans and my $30 H&M shirt.

Guess how many people in my family have died of a cardiovascular disease? A lot. So I think I’ll focus on eating healthy, hiking, and working out…..something that actually has an extremely high probability of killing me versus worrying about someone targeting me because I have equity on paper and time to go hiking and post on HHV.

Leo, I demand an apology for you posting your estimate of my income and baiting me into a reply 🙂

Marko, regarding your personal safety… I am not a criminal, but I’m assumming that even if you don’t have many possessions or cash and cash equivalent on you or in your home, you can still be a target of armed robbery, credit card theft, identity theft, extortion and other criminal ventures. Sometimes its best to keep your mouth shut and lay low dude. Too late in your case and given your profession, but maybe a learning opportunity for your fan club.

Lol. OK to clarify when I said “Marko you don’t have to ban immigrants…” I did not mean that you said we should ban immigrants. English is a tricky language. Fyi English is not my first language.

PR’s have all the rights and benefits of citizens of this great country.

It seems like a lot of people on this blog are in favor or rationing residential real estate in order to lower demand. That could work but in my opinion one would have to think bigger for this to have an effect on residential housing.

Investors are very important to a healthy economy. As rents increase, investors build more rentals thereby increasing the supply which in theory, eventually leads to stabilizing prices as the rental market becomes saturated and vacancy rates rise. When property values fall too low then investors buy real estate for their positive cash flow thereby providing a price floor to to stabilize prices.

But not all investors are the same. There is a difference between those that create new housing and those that buy up existing housing. Perhaps there should be an amendment to the number of existing residential properties than an investor can claim a Capital Gains exemption. More than two residential rental properties and the gains become fully taxable. I would probably give those investors with three or more a grace period to sell off their surplus properties and take advantage of the capital gains exemption.

If you want to own three or more existing rental properties, then you should be buying apartment buildings not single family homes or condos.

Then there will be more available rental units for immigrants. Once they become PR or citizens than they can buy a home.

Permanent resident is just another name for immigrant. As opposed to foreign students, TFWs, etc., who are temporary residents.

Humility aside, if I were an easily identifiable person I would not be publicly disclosing or hinting at my wealth and earnings to random strangers anymore than I would share my kids names and schools.

You do realize a random member of the public can gain access to every single address I own?

What is someone going to do? Break into my personal condo and steal my $299 TV and my used towels? Or steal my 8 year high mileage Tesla that’s worth $28,000 that I can easily track. Maybe my 7 year old Microsoft surface laptop? Don’t own a watch. Don’t own jewelry.

Or even better they will kidnap me because I am the only local agent in Victoria offering mere posting in Victoria offering sellers a lower cost alternative to selling their home.

Or if they are ultra sophisticated they can hack my cloud and obtain access to floorplans and photos of properties I’ve listed in the last 13 years.

you are doing well indeed

Have I ever said I am not doing well?

still have ample free time for hiking

Yes I spend time in the outdoors instead of watching Maple Leafs games in my non-existent median room.

HHV posting

I am not being paid hourly by tax dollars while posting on HHV.

Marko, you don’t have to ban immigrants from coming.

That is not what I said. If you can’t read no point in continuing this debate.

Marko, you don’t have to ban immigrants from coming. Perhaps we could simply prioritize homes for Canadians including all permanent residents and individuals wanting to become PR or citizens, allready in Canada. Implement this new prioritization starting tomorrow and going forward. The gov can start building or incentivizing the building of affordable rental units for the homeless and the middle class. Eventually the supply catches up to the number of people and families in need of stable long-term shelter. Then there will be more available rental units for immigrants. Once they become PR or citizens than they can buy a home. I know this is discriminatory towards future immigrants, but our own citizens should have priority.

Demand seems to be dropping off in the past week – insider contact (managing broker at one of the larger RE brokerages in town). curious to see what the other realtors on here are seeing.

Whether it’s used as a scapegoat is immaterial. AirBnB doesn’t have feelings to hurt. What’s material is that using a residential property as a hotel, while paying residential taxes and being in a residentially zoned area, and escaping the regulation that hotels have to follow, is injurious to tax revenues, public safety, neighbourhood quallty, and those seeking long term accommodation.

Let’s just ban airbnb so we can find something new to scapegoat for our housing problems while continuing to ignore obvious, supply.

Black and white thinking and statements from either side of the Airbnb debate detract from reasonable solutions.

Obviously there are benefits to this platform for owners who go on vacation like you do, and for visitors. I use Airbnb when I travel with family – way better. However, when whole units become permanent Airbnbs there needs to be some regulation. If whole unit Airbnbs are permitted, as they are in many towns, there need to be occupancy limits and safety inspections and measures in place not to create neighbourhood problems. If permanent Airbnb units are not permitted, as in Victoria except in specific zones, and you can only rent out your primary residence when you are not there a limited time annually, and only with a permit, this also needs monitoring and enforcement.

I still don’t understand what the difference is between an immigrant buying in his or her first 10 years in Canada or renting first 10 years? They still need a housing unit which we don’t have.

People from other countries don’t have a right to buy all our land.

You don’t seem to realize that immigrants to Canada get turned into Canadians with citizenship rights. Def would be a Charter violation to say they cannot buy property. This is very different than the foreign buyers tax. Canada most definitely has the right to regulate or prohibit the foreign ownership of property.

There were human rights challenges to the foreign buyers taxes as well. Those challenges failed so I think it is safe to say that Canada has the right to control the ownership of its land. People from other countries don’t have a right to buy all our land.

Maybe if your a recent immigrants you are prohibited from buying.

Likely a violation of both provincial human rights legislation and the Charter of Rights mobility provisions, which apply equally to citizens and permanent residents. In any case not even Quebec, which is not afraid to appear anti-immigrant, has tried it and you can be sure it won’t be tried elsewhere.

Beyond that do note that the foreign buyers tax, which does not apply to permanent residents, has been found constitutional.

On to the next scapegoat Marko? Yes, but what is your solution Marko? Build more? Nope – just results in more sales to investors. Do nothing and hope the best – nope the problem is not going to solve itself. Reduce immigration – not the issue here. We need immigration. We just need to control home ownership. Maybe allow immigration but limit the ability of wealthy immigrants buying property. Maybe if your a recent immigrants you are prohibited from buying. Pit that restriction in place until your fellow citizens have the ability to afford to buy a place to live here.

I’d much rather see high interest rates, a stock market crash and a major recession decimating housing values and leaving the RE industry stagnant for decades. I’m just hoping for the best and wishing these things will happen

Wow, ok…here’s an idea though, if you’re stepping back & “hoping for the best”, why not wish for something fun like world peace instead of something that causes enormous misery?

starting with the absurd property tax deferral

I think they should keep the property tax deferral. And expand it to landlords providing family rentals.

The property tax deferral is of course a secured loan, at interest rates slightly below market. So it likely costs the government something. But it benefits two groups:
– 1. seniors/elderly (55+) (and disabled adults)
– 2. families with children under 18.

—- 1. The seniors/elderly deferral doesn’t help the housing crisis. But removing it wouldn’t help either, because older homeowners have lots of equity and can borrow (reverse mortgage) to replicate the tax deferral, rather than sell their home.

—- 2. The families with children property tax deferral does help the housing crisis. Our society wants to encourage people to have children, and also prioritize these families to find and keep good housing.

If all the families with children have good housing, the “crisis” part of the housing crisis would be over, as the vast majority of adults without children can afford adequate housing in Victoria, in condos and apartments.

In fact, I’d go one step further and allow a landlord to defer property tax if they’re renting out a SFH or 3+ bedroom unit to a family with children. That would help the housing crisis by encouraging landlords to prioritize families with children in their rentals.

Marko, renting out your place while you are away on vacation is smart and that is clearly not the problem. You are a smart fellow and I know you know what the problem with airbnb is: housing units being purchased for the sole purpose of renting them out full time on airbnb.

Yes, but I am not smart enough to do some basic math to give you my opinion that airbnb being purchased for the sole purposes of the renting them are such a small percentage of real estate transactions that it wouldn’t move the needle whastsoever if you banned airbnb? You also wouldn’t flush out the current units to market because monthly rents are so incredibly strong. Just think about it, I am renting 500 sq/ft for $2,000 a month long term. That’s $67 a night, 365 days a year, no work involved in relation to airbnb. It isn’t like you ban airbnb and everyone dumps their units to the re-sale market. The utility of their unit doesn’t go to zero.

Foreign buyers banned, bidding wars back. On to the next scapegoat, airbnb.

I mentioned months ago when I was renting out one of my units that I adjusted my expectations because of the new Hudson rental tower (200+ new units available for rent hit the market). Then another poster comes on last week and notes it took them 1.5 months to rent out their multiplex in Fairfield, and also notes the new Hudson rental tower. That is the power of supply. If five Hudson towers came to market at the same time the rent on my 500 sq/ft unit would be $1,700 and the person with the multiplex would either spend 6 months trying to find their tenants, or most likely they would have adjusted their prices a bit to avoid prolonged vacancy.

The problem is the supply is too slow. The Hudson tower will be 100% rented out by the time the Bosa rental tower is finished late this year. Then the Bosa rental tower will be 100% rented out by the time the Wedge rental tower is finished. Then we won’t have anything substantially for a few years.

The only matches for the string “19” in the web page are in the build date and the previous sale price.

Think outside the box…. A listing for a different unit in the same building…
https://www.dfh.ca/property/saanich-east/1025-inverness-rd-421378/
“The building allows for residents to be a minimum age of 19 years”

Not sure what to tell you…it’s literally in the listing as 19+.

Here’s the screenshot. The only matches for the string “19” in the web page are in the build date and the previous sale price.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24960520/301-1025-inverness-rd-saanich-quadra

I just came back from a hike today with two friends at Mount Prevost and we literally live in one of the best places on earth in my opinion.

I won’t deny, the hiking and nature access here is some of the best in Canada.

Perhaps we should go the other way. How about a capital gains tax @150%.

I don’t believe RE is risk free. I just think that is what the common man has been taught. Housing prices will never go down in Victoria… they will only go up because of a lack of supply and because Victoria is the center of your universe…

Residential real estate will one day cease to be a risk free tax free investment. Won’t happen for years, but one day there will be a forced redistribution of homes for our fellow citizens.

The only real estate that is tax free are primary residences. Are you suggesting some day people will be forced to share their primary residences with the homeless?

… the market is profoundly impacted by investors looking to make risk free and tax free investments in homes.

You do realize that investors have to pay income tax on rental profits and capital gains on profits from the value increase at the time off sale.
Also if it is risk free, why are you not buying up condos to invest in? If anyone sells an investment to you as risk free, run for the exits.

Marko, renting out your place while you are away on vacation is smart and that is clearly not the problem. You are a smart fellow and I know you know what the problem with airbnb is: housing units being purchased for the sole purpose of renting them out full time on airbnb.

I agree with you Frank – Airbnb is a huge problem. I will never stay at an Airbnb when I travel, no matter how nice the place looks or what the price is relative to hotels. And I agree with you 100% that we can’t build ourselves out of this housing “shortage.”

When I go on vacation instead of leaving my personal condo empty, I Airbnb it. My neighbours go to Arizona for the winter and they don’t AirBnb their place, it sits vacant. I guess I am the problem? Airbnb has some good uses, imo.

If we banned Airbnb today the bidding wars on SFHs would continue, literally nothing would change. Condo prices would stay flat, there are only 16 buildings in Victoria that allow AirBnb (keep in mind in some of these 16 builds only a handful of units are used for Airbnb). A few units would come to market, a few units would be converted to long term rentals and that is that.

Maybe we should ban Airbnb just to delay dealing with the actual problem (supply) a few more years.

This listing states it is age-restricted. Only legal age restriction now is 55 plus. If the building is 55 plus it will both be cheaper, and unattainable for that young RN/Military couple for the next 30 years or so.

It isn’t age restricted as per Bill 44 anymore, it use to be 19+ but that no longer applies.

In BC, an RN generally needs a 4 year university degree, not a 3 year diploma program. You’re probably thinking of an LPN.

When I say three year diploma, I am referecing respiratory therapists (which I was 2007-2011). I cleared 70k in my first full year 2008 (at 22 years old) working as a casual VIHA employee attending classes at UVIC. I admit I picked up every single statutory holiday including Christmas Day at overtime but it was great. It was slow on Christmas Day, the nurses in ICU brought a ton of food and my parents live a 10 minutes walk from the Jubilee so I was home by 7:15 pm with them.

And you telling someone with an after-tax income of about $55k, that they should buy a 50 year old condo that will give them more than $3,000 a month in expenses (i.e. 50% of pre-tax income, as they bought a property at 5.5x income)

I added that they should rent the second bedroom for $1,100 per month. The reason I went this route is if I suggested they buy a new studio then everyone on HHV would come back with the argument that it is impossible to live in a studio.

What’s wrong with a 50 year old condo? (assuming the strata is in good shape). Are we against more affordable older stock now?

Age restriction on that unit is listed as 19+.

Nope, literally “Age Restrictions” alone and as Totoro pointed out that can only be 55+.

What I find interesting is that the listing price is exactly double the previous sale price in 2016. When mortgage rates were lower.

Thanks Rich, people will disagree or live in a fantasy land where the government solves all our problems. In reality, they create most of the problems.

I’m convinced that airbnbs and excessive immigration are the main factors contributing to the housing crisis and runaway rents. The concept of airbnb, in my mind, was for families who wanted to visit a country for an extended period of time an opportunity to find another family to inhabit their house during that period. A sort of house exchange system, not create thousands of amateur hoteliers. I spoke to someone who recently went to Calgary to by a condo for the sole purpose of running an airbnb. He said one entire condo tower was almost all airbnb. That doesn’t reduce the housing inventory? And put pressure on existing rental properties. The unit would rent for $250+ a night, $700 during the stampede. Prices were in the mid $300,000’s.
Look at all the “investors” who lost their shirts to that ponzu scheme. I wonder how many of them are going to look at airbnb as an alternative. The more airbnbs, the higher prices and rents will escalate. We can’t build ourselves out of this problem.

Zack, I agree with you 100%. Our real estate market has gone far past what it should have. People making $120k should be able to afford to buy a home. It’s shouldn’t be just for the “rich”. Families should have the ability to buy a house, have the security. It’s ridiculous and I’m hopeful for change.

Frank why would non-corporate investors continue to hold a rental properties that at the higher renewal interest rates would be bleeding red ink? I’m intentionally separating the mom and pop investments from corporate entities such as REITs as REITs don’t operate under the same requirements. REITs charge substantially more for their rentals as they can operate at a much higher vacancy rate and have a longer lease up period than others that rely on full occupancy to meet their immediate debt obligations.

The effect on the rental market is a different question. Historically what I’ve seen is that the rental properties that were sold were occupied by tenants. When the vacancy rate was higher and rents stable it was better to sell a property that was fully leased.

I’m not seeing that today. The last half dozen rental properties that I have viewed have sold vacant of tenants. I suppose it is easier to sell a vacant rental property that the purchaser can now lease up at market rents rather than inherit tenants that are paying below market rents and are subject to rent increase restrictions.

Initially as investors begin to off load their rental properties that will tighten the rental market further as it is to their benefit to evict the tenants before selling. However as more and more investors liquidate their holdings as renewal time approaches that will cause rents to stabilize or even moderately decline. Just don’t expect that to happen over night.

The other observation about these rental properties is that they have a lot of deferred maintenance. I would put about one-third of the rental properties built before 1980 in Victoria as absolute sh&*holes. And while I am not a fire, health and safety inspector a cursory inspection shows that they would need tens of thousands of dollars to remediate to current building codes.

And lastly Frank, I would encourage you to read up on how investors effect markets. For some bizarre reason most people can understand what happens to prices in the stock market when investors change their position from holding to selling. But when it comes to real estate they can not grasp that the same holds true. Some 40 percent of the existing housing are rentals which corelates with a lot of investment properties being held off the market. That is tens of thousands of properties which can come back onto the market. More properties that could ever be built over a decade in Victoria.

I agree with Marko. I went to trade school as a carpenter right out of high school and it didn’t cost me a dime. The government paid me to attend Camosun College…They paid my wage, my parking, and my books. Once I got my red seal ticket I went on my own.
7 days a week, 12 hour days, in the trenches, hands dirty…I own a detached house in Victoria and so do all the other guys I went to trade school with. The expenses are minimal, I can write off 10% of my house for office space, truck, tools, whatever.
Service work alone will keep you busy in this town. Effort = Results. Victoria is never going to crash, If that’s what you think you should consider re thinking. Go look outside.
Even a correction in Victoria will be short lived, if at all.

You posted a single 2 bed in Saanich (not even in Victoria) for $400k. That was the lowest legitimate valuation I could find ANYWHERE near Victoria in the capital district region

This listing states it is age-restricted. Only legal age restriction now is 55 plus. If the building is 55 plus it will both be cheaper, and unattainable for that young RN/Military couple for the next 30 years or so.

That’s a long post, Marko, but I’ll unpack a couple of things.

I agree ~$72k would be a realistic starting salary currently for a new RN, based upon publicly listed job posting.

In BC, an RN generally needs a 4 year university degree, not a 3 year diploma program. You’re probably thinking of an LPN.

I have no involvement with any university program admissions departments so I couldn’t comment on whether a C+ average will get you into these programs in 2023. To your point about a “diploma program”, I would not that some people might be able to do do 2.5 years at Camosun, but still with 4 years of total study (see here: https://camosun.ca/programs-courses/find-program/nursing-baccalaureate-science).

More importantly though, you didn’t address my main point. You posted a single 2 bed in Saanich (not even in Victoria) for $400k. That was the lowest legitimate valuation I could find ANYWHERE near Victoria in the capital district region (actually, there was one super low ball 2 bed listed in Oak Bay at well under assessed value that either reflects the owner trying to start a bidding war or massive upcoming expenses that are not disclosed).

Whether or not someone can qualify for a mortgage, doesn’t address the question of whether that mortgage “helps to build equity” in a meaningful way. And you telling someone with an after-tax income of about $55k, that they should buy a 50 year old condo that will give them more than $3,000 a month in expenses (i.e. 50% of pre-tax income, as they bought a property at 5.5x income) simply doesn’t pass the smell test as an easy way to properity.

I realize that in the past decade, people could get away with this due to massive increases in property valuations driven by falling interest rates and government largess.

We’ve entered a different phase, and anyone believing that simply entering the property market, no matter the cost, is a simply way to becoming rich may be in for a big surprise. A lot of people already have felt that shock who bought last year.

I doubt you’d even pay off your car.

You likely wouldn’t…but most people need a car anyway so instead of it sitting in your driveway depreicating you can use it a bit.

Different people, different times, different experience. I found almost all of my university classes extremely fascinating. Accounting, while useful, was rather dry. Talking with younger people these days I get the impression that it a rather different experience of dubious value in many cases.

1831 Midgard Ave Saanich BC – Sold $1,375,000. Assessed $1,242,000. Asking $1,415,000.

Thank you Ciena!

If anything, Covid should have caused investors to sell their properties as renters were not obligated to pay their rent. I was fortunate, my tenants paid their rent to maintain a roof over their head. Rents were also lower pre-covid. The concept that investors selling their rental properties is a total fallacy. Once those properties were scooped up by the ever increasing demand, there would be thousands of people with nowhere to live. Then there would be an even bigger social problem. Rents are ridiculous and are forcing employed people to live in trailers on parking lots and public spaces. In some cases renting a house is cheaper than an apartment as 3 generations can live under one roof, not an easy thing to do in a two bedroom apartment. It would be catastrophic if there were no houses to to rent. Always has been, always will be an option for rent. I would say the investors owning several airbnbs is a far greater problem reducing long term housing. A total ban on them would immediately increase supply of housing for residents. There aren’t too many homeless vacationers.
The only thing that would motivate me to sell would be elimination of capital gains taxes on rental property, which will never happen.

I doubt we will see much in relief in prices until investors decide to cash out. But the rents are too good to change the investors’ position from holding real estate off the market to selling. Unexpectantly, Covid was a major factor in rents escalating by about 20% . In my opinion if that had not happened we would be seeing investors putting their properties up for sale as their net returns dwindled away and the marketplace would not be so tight today. That’s the problem of putting money, such as CERB payments, into the pockets of every day Canadians – it’s inflationary.

And this is where I differ from everyone else on this blog. I agree that building more homes will have an effect on prices in the long term but that will takes years and it will need us to import more workers which will raise prices and rents in the short term. These new units will be expensive to purchase and to rent, but if we build a massive amount of them then that market will become saturated and then we will see lower prices trickle down into the pre-owned housing market. But this will take years to accomplish.

So for the foreseeable future we are F^&cked unless investors change their position from holding real estate to selling. And the only way I see this happening is with higher interest rates. A lot higher interest rates than we have today, so that investors facing renewal would be losing money on their investments and start to list their properties. Unfortunately there will be collateral damage to those home owners that bought in the last several years or have re-financed and now have large mortgages. In my opinion that is how we will prick the bubble we are in now. And it will likely put us into a deep recession and contribute to lay offs in the workers that are making $100K a year.

Personally, I don’t see any government that would like to do this and that’s why they are putting all of their eggs into the building more homes basket, rather than their attention onto the pre-owned / used housing market and thereby hoping / praying for a soft landing rather than a recession. Ironically, I think what the government is doing today will make a recession worse but I don’t see that the governments have any choice but to do what they are doing. It’s a Catch-22.

Okay you all can unsheathe your daggers now.

“Straight out of high school as a C+ student you can go get a three year diploma with unlimited secure health care employment which can qualify you for an older 2 bedroom condo….As bad as it is, a nurse/teacher/engineer/etc., can still afford an entry level condo in one of the most expensive cities in the Canada. ”

Lol Marko, I just can’t help but laugh.

Share the link. Show us the 2 bed condo, within the city of Victoria, that is affordable for an entry level worker after 4.5% interest, maintenance, taxes, etc. I’m looking on the edge, I can find a place for maybe 3k per month after all of these expenses… no wait that’s in a different city. Most of that is non-recoverable I.E not building equity. Even with the room mate that just ain’t practical for anyone earning at the median.

But I agree: if people want to have affordable homes, they can go to Calgary. As it stands today: the reality is Victoria is a city for the wealthy and the people who drive in to service them.

(Also, FYI an engineer earns a vastly different income than a nurse, who earns a much different income than a teacher; and the frequency of the availability of these jobs is completely different as well. Anyways, what is the entry level salary that you are picturing where this makes sense?)

You can pay a monthly fee of around 110 for this currently. A small number of physicians/NPs in town have opted out of MSP and are taking clients or have wait-lists. Much faster and more comprehensive medical care in my experience.

Fair enough, but you get my point. A construction company would pay $100k/year for a $100k/year construction worker if they existed, but they don’t. So, they pay $60k/year for the $60k/year construction worker (less productive) which is available.

Yeah, I knew a Austrian man who was a Sheet Metal Worker in the Dockyard. He was a permanent employee (not term). So he never got laid off. He didn’t have much of a personality, but boy he was talented with his hands. This guy put in a waterfall and pond for me. He built garden ornaments. He shored up my deck safely when the “professionals” didn’t consider the weight load below. He installed decks for me, patios, fences, railings and gates. He also dry walled and painted better than any tradesperson I ever seen. He had a work ethic like you wouldn’t believe. I’m sure if he had to, he could have built an entire house from the ground up. Done the framing, roofing, drywalling, plumbing, electrical, painting and landscaping. But today could he pass that builders exam that Marko talks about? Maybe not. But if he were alive today, I would recommend him in a second. Oh yes, he didn’t smoke or go on a cell phone at every opportunity.

I do think there are companies out there that would pay $100k/year for truly skilled trades people that regularly show up to work and put in an honest days work.

I know it sounds so simple, but as someone who is often on construction sites it isn’t. It’s crazy what I’ve seen. Trades without any care dropping tools on extremely expensive floors, smoking inside, not knowing their trade, etc.

There is a reason my tiling friend makes over $150,000/year after expenses. Quality work, show up when you say you will, don’t smoke on premises, clean up after yourself is already ahead of 95% of competition. That’s why my clients who felt that $2,500 for two days work was outrageous would use him again.

It’s like what is msp for a GP visit these days? $32 or something like that? Not that I can but if I could I would happily pay $200/visit to a GP. Scarcity.

There is room for 20-30-40% of trades to make over 100k if they increased their productivity.

Do you mean by becoming independent contractors/small business owners? No way are 20-40% of people in any occupation suited for this imo.

It is almost like you are saying that people who do not have the aptitude to run a small business successfully should ignore this reality, which seems foolish to me. A lot of people need external structure to perform. I don’t see how the increase in productivity is achieved otherwise as tradespeople working for others are making 30/hour here – more in the dockyards but they have layoffs between ships.

It’s like saying there are only so many GP jobs when half of us don’t have a doctor.

It is actually like saying you should be a doctor when you don’t have the ability to pass the coursework required no matter how much effort you put into it.

By 2009/2010 I was making just over 50k

I don’t know anything about software engineering but as I said I clearly remember my civil engineering UBC grad friend making $2x/hr and barely affording rent in Vancouver in 2008 to the point where he had to move to middle of no where Manitoba.

I think things were better 25 yrs ago. 15 years ago things were already crap and now they are even crappier.

Being a business owner is often incredibly stressful unless you are starting from a position of wealth. And most people do not have the interest or aptitude to manage customers, accounting, financing, employees, regulation, gen administration, overhead costs, taxation, strategic planning, marketing, and things like pandemics. There is a reason 50% of small business fail within five years. I can understand why most tradespeople, or any person doing anything, do not choose this route.

I am sure that people can be more efficient, practical ,and diligent than they are a lot of the time and get ahead faster and further. However, when, in ten years, housing prices AND rental prices double, interest rates triple, and wages go up by 20-25% and there is not enough affordable housing in general, there is a problem that can’t be solved by working harder.

With regard to if it was easier to buy a home 15 years ago for an engineer.
I immigrated to Canada with a Master’s in Engineering but no work experience, so could not get accredited in Canada. I started my first job as a software engineer making only 35k in 2006. I was willing to accept that lower salary because I needed the company to sponsor my temporary work permit. However, I knew (and the company knew) I was underpaid so I pushed for 10%+ salary increases each year. By 2009/2010 I was making just over 50k and the friends I had made here who were mostly in trades were earning significantly more. Those working in trades have a head start in earning, their ability to increase their salary is much lower than an engineer (assuming both are competent), unless the tradesperson is competent (and confident) enough to run their own business. 15 years later I am making significantly more than my friends in trades and my shoulders are not giving out like some drywallers I know.
In 2009/2010 I was able to buy our first 450k home in Sooke with a suite with 5% down. A mortgage broker was able to find a lender that would count 90% of the projected income from the suite towards the income requirement.
A lot of people thought I was nuts taking on a mortgage with a 8-9x income multiple. However, my wife had just started working after university (her income did not count for the bank yet) and I was confident my earnings would be significantly larger by the time my mortgage was up for renewal.

Sorry Marko, I must be wrong. There was a great realtor offering mere listings in 2013 but it was not you.

I offered mere postings continually 2010 to 2020 and have been offering mere postings on/off 2021-present.

I am still confused. You do know an agent can offer whatever he or she wants? Like I can offer someone a full service or mere listing at the same time and they opt as to what they would like. I just literally did a deal where a buyer approached me asking me if I would do a mere posting on their place if they used me as a buyer’s agent on a purchase and I was like sure, why not. Made a large commission on the purchase and mere posted their place they successfully sold. Another person called me about a mere posting in Sooke and I said no thanks, too much driving.

I run my real estate business like a business. If I am crazy busy I cease offering mere postings. If I think there might be benefit to doing mere postings I do mere postings. If a repeat client asking me for a mere posting I’ll probably agree to it because they are repeat, etc.

Sorry Marko, I must be wrong. There was a great realtor offering mere listings in 2013 but it was not you.

If running your own business was so easy and lucrative everyone would be doing it. Watching the Preakness, man these horses are gorgeous.

Marko, Can you please tell us again how you went from a “Mere Realtor” to a Full Service Realtor?
IMHO , you got where you are today because you were selling properties 10-15 years ago for $750. and you added a couple hundred dollars in commission.. you were magic? It was a bit Rogue but you got very popular. And now..

It’s bad for our society that housing affordability is so poor and it’s dumb to pretend it isn’t, or that young people don’t have it substantially harder on the housing front than they did in the past.

When I bought my first property in 2009; 500 sq/ft with no parking and no bedroom window I don’t remember complaining about how 8 years previous to that for 200k I could have bought a nice SFH in the Oaklands area. Affordability is getting worse every year; however, there is still a blueprint to housing I’ve laid out with concrete examples.

Straight out of high school as a C+ student you can go get a three year diploma with unlimited secure health care employment which can qualify you for an older 2 bedroom condo. Throw in a roommate for $1,100/month, pick up some overtime shifts, and build some equity.

I am talking a C+ high school student to get into a diploma program here. Not asking anyone to do calculus (which I failed at Vic High and had to drop out of) or organic chem (which I had to drop out of at Uvic killing my pre-med dreams).

Not sure what people are expecting. Do an English degree, get a policy analyst BC government position working from home, and be able to afford a SFH? That simply cannot occur when you have 12 people designing/consulting on a sidewalk and 1 person physically building the sidewalk.

As bad as it is, a nurse/teacher/engineer/etc., can still afford an entry level condo in one of the most expensive cities in the Canada. Try buying something in Berlin or Munich with those professions. If we move away from Toroto/Vancouver/Victoria, in Calgary you can buy a decent condo for 300k.

? Well Friendly, I did say most cities,. What about Kamloops, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, OTTAWA (because I have lived there), Toronto, Montreal? These are major (population wise) cities no?

1831 Midgard Ave Saanich BC – Sold $1,375,000. Assessed $1,242,000. Asking $1,415,000.

Says 2 DOM but some have mentioned it sold before officially hitting the market.

It’s bad for our society that housing affordability is so poor and it’s dumb to pretend it isn’t, or that young people don’t have it substantially harder on the housing front than they did in the past.

I guess this is the only thing we 100% agree on.

I think people who think it will never get better are missing the fact that political power is shifting to those that didn’t benefit from the scarcity system we have currently. They aren’t going to tolerate ever worsening conditions, and that’s when the system changes quickly (will still take years to shift the outcomes but the trajectory is what’s important)

This is where I think you are completely out to lunch Leo.

Let’s break it down into two groups. The established family in Oak Bay. You and I will agree that that established Oak Bay family does not want a fourplex popping up next to them. They are in favour of the status quo on housing.

The other group is a young family with a baby/toddler living in one of the many new cheaply built four to six story wood-framed rental buildings in Langford owned by RIETs/corporations. They are barely managing bills paying $2,400 to $2,800 for a two-bedroom apartment. This group needs more affordable rentals or lower purchase price point entry into home ownership. This is the group I assume you think will cause the power shift?

This is where I think you are wrong.

How about you and I go door knock some of these apartments and ask a few questions?

i. Are you in favor of the new Langford tree bylaw and more trees and greenspace being protected?

Gauranteed everyone would answer along the lines of “yes, of course, it is disgusting seeing all the clear cutting in Langford.”

ii. The City of Victoria has a hand deconstruction bylaw in place to keep materials that can be recycled out of our landfills. Do you think Langford should adopt such a bylaw?

Gauranteed everyone would be along the lines of “yes, sounds like a good idea.”

iii. In light of the Danbrook are you in favor of more checks and balances at City Hall to ensure buildings are built safe?

Gauranteed everyone would be along the lines of “yes, sounds like a good idea.” Even thought in reality this had nothing to do with City Hall.

Etc., etc.

The reason I think we are completely screwed is those that need housing the most don’t really understand who and what they need to vote that will lead to a better outcome for them.

You know I’m just bugging ya Marko

I was just about to egg your house tonight.

Good rule of thumb is that if you have lots of money than you should do your best to hide the fact that you have lots of money. It is usually only attention craving celebrities, high paid athletes and characters like Mr. Martel that have a need to advertise to everyone how financially successful they are.

If people were listening to realistic investment advice that I often post on my YouTube channel such as the real life numbers on my rental properties -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBK00RMv1NM&t
they wouldn’t fall for scams. I am not try to brag when I post these videos but rather to give people real life picture of investment expectations. If you watch the videos and start adding up the properties yes it is obvious that I have money and how I came to that money is disclosed. If you were super bored you could go back 11 or 12 years and find videos of me talking about my rental property pre-sales -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwv4h5DId7E

Rich Coleman. Are you a “desperate local peasant”?

Thank you Marko for your comments to this blog, and your refreshing east European directness. I have gained a lot of market knowledge (and entertainment) from your posts.

Saw sold sign for 1831 Midgard Ave. Does anyone know how much it is sold for?

Marko – hats off to you. You are quite the hustler. I wonder if you have ever heard of the concept of humility?

You’re making my point

I don’t agree with your point.

Availability bias. Marko makes $300k+ and so surely anyone could make at least a third of that.

You guessed low but in all fairness you wouldn’t be aware of some my business ventures outside of real estate. I have to run out to show eight properties but I’ll be back this afternoon/evening to defend myself 🙂

Just an FYI for others, it’s very easy to check whether a someone working for you has insurance:

+1, I do this for all the trades working on our construction projects.

I’d be concerned about WCB coverage for moonlighters. High injury rate in the trades. One-third of all on-the-job injuries in Canada occur among workers in trades, transport, and equipment operation. We get receipts.

Agreed, and that is why we have a WCB account for home services for our own house. Sure it’s a bit of a pain to set up, but it’s about the cheapest insurance you can find, costs us around $200 a year to cover all those people coming to do things who have no coverage of their own. And, when we do the WCB returns (once a year) and check to see which service provider actually has coverage (you don’t pay for those), we’re often surprised how many providers who say “yes we have WCB coverage” actually either just don’t or are somehow delinquent.

The term is x or y AXIS.