Sales hit bottom, but for how long?

In response to the CO2 levels and learning

So I read this, and while it’s interesting, I’m not sure it applies. Seems like this article is illustrating the longer-term adaptability of humans under higher concentrations of CO2 (for example in submarines or in space). Consistently high concentrations do not make you stupid.

Clearly I’m no expert but the papers I have read (and folks much smarter than I who teach this stuff) indicate that variable CO2 concentrations can impact learning ability, work ability, sleep quality, etc. Having said that, cooking is (by far) the biggest source of indoor pollutants, and that seems to get pretty much no airtime.

This forum is really getting off topic these days…

Maybe the result of almost nobody buying or selling houses right now.

Is there a noticeable difference in wind between the west side and east side of McNeill Bay? Or do you mean you’d be sheltered by Gonzales hill if you were on the west side?

Yes, west side is protected by the point and Gonzales hill.

Rising carbon dioxide levels will make us stupider

I linked to some studies of CO2 levels in classrooms and the outcomes on learning quite some time ago. Part of my HRV ramblings…

Rising carbon dioxide levels will make us stupider

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01134-w

But we need to keep burning more and more oil to get the world out of poverty…

It looks to me like people with money should be saving it and not spending it.

Many of them are. The problem is more that people who don’t have money are spending it.

Steve: Nice house but overpriced with some issues.

Not bad value IMHO. Nice place. Main downside for me is it’s on the windy side of the bay.

A simple Google search would have provided you with plenty of facts about the rushed SARS vaccine clinical trial that was discontinued due to adverse side effects.
So ‘Yes’, there was a SARS vaccine but during clinical trials it was deemed too dangerous to proceed. Many clinical trial volunteers experienced severe adverse side effects, some serious.
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00533741

A clinical trial for a vaccine a full 4 years after SARS… seems very rushed.

This is a superb read:

Rob Shaw: Adrian Dix and the long road to become the health minister B.C. needs

https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/rob-shaw-adrian-dix-the-right-guy-in-the-right-job-at-the-right-time/

Soper, you really need to stop posting your opinions on here which you present as facts.

A simple Google search would have provided you with plenty of facts about the rushed SARS vaccine clinical trial that was discontinued due to adverse side effects.

So ‘Yes’, there was a SARS vaccine but during clinical trials it was deemed too dangerous to proceed. Many clinical trial volunteers experienced severe adverse side effects, some serious.
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00533741

< Edited - Keep it civil folks. - admin >

SARS vaccine was rushed and caused serious unforeseen side effects.

Sorry, there was no SARS vaccine ever.

Leo M : That was a really good and very informative video on vaccines. The only thing that I believe might be a bit misleading is that 80% of people only get a very mild reaction when infected. Overall that is true but if you are over 60 that number is more like 60% mild and 40% more serious. Like deaths that number varies with age.

If you are over 60 then you should be planning on being in self quarantine for the next few years.

China was hacked by Vietnam on Coronavirus information.

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/business/reuters/vietnam-linked-hackers-targeted-chinese-government-over-coronavirus-response-researchers-440586/

“These attacks speak to the virus being an intelligence priority – everyone is throwing everything they’ve got at it, and APT32 is what Vietnam has,” said Ben Read, senior manager for analysis at FireEye’s Mandiant threat intelligence unit.

Steve: Nice house but overpriced with some issues.

I do not know what the issues are, but for me lack of yard and parking is a no go, because of privacy and not enough parking space for visitors.

Steve: Nice house but overpriced with some issues.

Is that with reference to any economic crash caused by a public health crisis? I can see an upswing from the abysmal lows, but getting back to a normal consumer spending habit anytime soon without a cure or effective vaccine I can’t wrap my head around.

I’m not referencing it from previous pandemic crashes, but come to think of it, all post pandemics, such as the 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, 1968 Hong Kong flu, and 2003 SARS send the world economy into a frenzy specially the roaring 20s.

Population increase after every disaster, be it pandemic or war, because of demand for diapers, baby food, clothing, commodity, and infrastructure .

Slash spending, tap savings, put Mom and Dad on standby: A millennial’s guide to surviving on CERB

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/young-money/millennials-guide-surviving-on-cerb

“We should be able to rely on Introvert to quote some 10 year old predictions that didn’t age well”

Or maybe Leo could delete posts from people who harass other commenters.

WTF is wrong with people?

I’ve had conversations with people who absolutely are science first people, people with degrees, who haven’t vaccinated their children because of “what if”. I said I wasn’t going to try to convince them otherwise, just to do a cursory basic check on what they were actually vaccinating against, and what the consequences of getting those things are. Once they looked it up, they vaccinated right away. Still seems insane to me.
Another one of those “if it’s not mandated, people are going to find a reason not to”.

I’m not so sure about human trials beginning soon, too many risks are involved.

I was just going to post that I was incorrect – they have already begun in various places in the world.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20200423-human-trials-begin-in-worldwide-race-to-develop-covid-19-vaccine-coronavirus-study-france-uk-germany

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-cuomo-new-york-governor-coronavirus-update-briefing-watch-live-stream-today-2020-04-26/
“The infection rate [“R” value] has dropped to 0.8 in the [NY] state, meaning that on average, a person with COVID-19 infects less than one other person.”

—==////
It is nice to see NY state report on the “R” value, and I wish that BC would do the same. It is a calculation, not a measurement, so they have the data needed to do this (cases per day, incubation period etc). If anyone has seen an R value for BC, please post it!

An R value less than one means the number of new cases per day will DECREASE exponentially. For example, the NY state R value of 0.8 means the number of new cases per day will (each cycle of infection, about 10 days) become
80% (i.e. after 10 days, number of new cases per day will have fallen by 20%)
then 64% (20 days) then 51% (30 days) , 40% (40 days), 33% (50 days), 26% (60 days), 21% (70 days) …. 4% (140 days), 1% (280 days)

Of course this “R” value depends on many factors including all the lockdowns and social distancing etc, and would rise if those were lifted. So the challenge is to lift the restrictions while keeping the “R” value less than 1. But if we do get and keep the R value less than 1, the virus (and hospitalizations/deaths) gradually goes away.

Many on this blog are speculating on the possibility of a vaccine going to human trials soon. I’m not so sure about human trials beginning soon, too many risks are involved. Remember, never before has a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine been developed…never, not once!

The SARS vaccine that was rushed to trials caused many serious health consequences, so the trials were stopped. The Cutter Polio vaccine was rushed and then actually caused polio and also killed many people.

If COVID-19 actually causes organ damage, sterility in young men, permanent lung damage, then it’s very unlikely the authorities will rush and bypass established safety protocols with a COVID-19 test vaccine.

The Cutter Polio Incident:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutter_Laboratories#The_Cutter_incident

Introvert: What do you think will not go back to the way it was?

I think it’s too early to tell; we’re still deep in the thick of it.

But I bet there will be some surprises. Fear, anxiety, self-isolation, boredom, reflection, economic collapse — a fertile admixture.

Even under ideal conditions (i.e., a vaccine is found, the economy is growing), certain things won’t go back to the way they were before. Those possibilities fascinate me the most.

If/when CoVid is vanquished, I agree that some things won’t return. For some, things are better now, such as working from home instead of an office. But I think most things would return to normal, including restaurants and travel. I don’t see any of that returning much while CoVid is still around.

Even under ideal conditions (i.e., a vaccine is found, the economy is growing), certain things won’t go back to the way they were before. Those possibilities fascinate me the most.

One of their strategies could end up being to inflate away their debt. Owning a house would be a hedge against inflation.

Inflation will inevitably lead to higher interest rates. I think the best scenario for RE going forward is continued minimal inflation.

In any case, people are already buying all the house they can afford. We know incomes are down. How can house prices go up? People did buy as an inflation hedge in the 1970’s, but wages were outpacing inflation, the labour participation rate was rising, the savings rate was high, and household debt was tiny compared to today. And that still led to the crash of the early 1980’s.

in the real estate world I keep hearing discussions of a lull and maybe a 5% decrease in value followed by massive upsurge of pent up demand firing the market once the virus situation is abated.

I would be nice if the RE lull result a drop of only 5%, but as all past indications the market will go into an upswing after a lull, because infrastructure will need to be repair/update along with consumption therefore that will affect housing. Unless, the coronavirus cause a drop in world population and/or stop the rest of the world at moving up the economic ladder out of poverty.

how many people might be spooked after this end and seek to be savers instead of highly indebted?

The trend is that people will go back to their normal spending habit as it has shown in every post market crashed that we have had in the past. And, people might get into even bigger debt than before after this by living large, because they think their lives might be cut short by some kind of disease.

As well, how many people might be spooked after this end and seek to be savers instead of highly indebted? Could there be a culture change around the comfort level people have with carrying large debt?

I agree a 5% drop in house prices does seem to be on the low end. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see at least a 20% drop. However I don’t see it taking a decade for RE to recover.
As for people taking on debt. The government is now taking on a lot of debt. One of their strategies could end up being to inflate away their debt. Owning a house would be a hedge against inflation.

“Homes still have people in them”

More than the named businesses and etc… have been significantly affected. Additionally, If the people in the homes were already highly indebted and now have reduced incomes or have lost employment, that may lead to a problem no matter that they need to live somewhere or not. As well, so many in industries (that employ people) may only be coming back at a fraction of their previous levels for a prolonged period time contributing to an inability to pay large sums for a major purchase. As well, how many people might be spooked after this end and seek to be savers instead of highly indebted? Could there be a culture change around the comfort level people have with carrying large debt?

And there is the possibility that no vaccine will be discovered.

Seems likely that at least a partially effective vaccine might be possible. But what do I know. I only read the studies as a layperson and there is lots I don’t understand. No vaccine would make more effective treatment the goal. I am hopeful that with this much financial and non-financial motivation business and science will combine to good effect at record speed. Human trials for a number of vaccines should start in September I believe.

If not, I’d expect that the following would happen until there is an effective vaccine:

And there is the possibility that no vaccine will be discovered.

however, I have great difficulty accepting their [low] numbers when we hear of other infections that are not counted.

I don’t think anybody is denying there are way more active cases out there from untested people. However, I have seen no evidence that our low numbers of people being in hospital and dying are being underreported. BC only has around 100 in hospital and 50 in ICU. Unless you have information on lots of people dying at home that are not being reported, why are you doubting the low numbers we have in BC?

Options: It is more than possible that having Covid does not provide total immunity and it is also possible that it reoccurs in either a few waves or annually. Perhaps like the flu it will kill off more frail and vulnerable every winter. It is likely to kill a much smaller percentage of the population in the second year since it would affect mostly the newly vulnerable.

Regardless, shutting down the economy for much longer is simply not a viable alternative.

Barrister – enjoyed reading your analysis.

I am seeing [first hand] a lot of local unemployed folks due to the lock down, and seeing a lot of folks not following social distancing regulations. I watch the daily reports by Dr. Henry and Dix – however, I have great difficulty accepting their [low] numbers when we hear of other infections that are not counted. There is a simple explanation – BC’s testing is some 58% below the national average. You test less, you get fewer positives – you test more, that leads to more contact tracing, and the end result is more positive cases. The Easter long weekend was 14 days ago – we know that social distancing was not adhered to over that weekend [recall all those people at parks and having family get together’s] – therefore, it is a safe bet that [given the 14 day incubation period] we will see an increase in reported cases this coming week, but given the low testing, they won’t show the whole picture.

We rarely see Horgan – unlike the other Premiers – which does not build confidence and adherence to the guidelines. It is disappointing. We can expect this isolation to continue through the end of the summer and I fear that, as has been discussed, the second wave arrives this fall. The RE market is being hit and will continue to be hit for another 12 to 18 months. It will take years for the RE market to recover. As sad as it may be, we are in this for the long run, whether we like it or not. The fiscal spending is large, but we should expect a big jump in municipal property tax and, going forward, federal / provincial income tax. This all has to be funded – there is no free lunch.

Barrister, interesting analysis on the covid-19 situation, but Im sorry to say there is a critical flaw in the assumptions for your point#5:

When they talk about the virus peaking it simply means that it has infected a large part of the population and it has simply run out of people who are vulnerable to it.

This past Friday WHO has publicly cautioned that there is not evidence (yet) that having had the covid-19 virus once means people cannot be infected a second time.

If our bodies cannot be depended on naturally becoming immune upon surviving a first infection, it will be terrifying, and change some of your other calculus

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/25/us/who-immunity-antibodies-covid-19/index.html

Victoria and the island real estate board are merging their MLS systems this summer.

Judging by how long it has taken them to “merge” new assessment data you might be waiting a long long time.

Quebec’s rate is approaching that of the US as is Ontario

You should be comparing major US states like Michigan and New York to Quebec and Ontario. Apples to apples.

Local Fool, I’m sorry that I couldn’t give you the answers you want to hear.

Okay, now I know it’s you. Welcome back! 🙂

You know, you sound an awful lot like “Just Jack” from a few years ago. He changed his name several times since, but his writing style kept outing him. If it’s you , Introvert will be delighted to hear from you again.

I thought it was using the same email address, so his colored picture didn’t change.

…for the MLS exposure at a grand cost of $535 or so.

Grand? that’s not a grand… ugh, I need to get out more!

if it’s up to the public to do careful due diligence to make sure every detail discussed from any realtor is true

If they are telling you the address of the listing you can probably rely on a realtor. Otherwise due diligence and double checking required IMO.

It’s a sad state of affairs.

What does average mean?

You know, you sound an awful lot like “Just Jack” from a few years ago. He changed his name several times since, but his writing style kept outing him. If it’s you , Introvert will be delighted to hear from you again. 🙂

I think my question was perfectly obvious. I am aware of the limitation of lumping all of it into one category, but it’s a broad-based metric you see frequently used in many markets. It means average within a given area, in this case Greater Victoria.

Average doesn’t mean median, it doesn’t mean mode, and it doesn’t mean, “whatever it means to me”. I am not asking for averages within tiers, neighborhoods, features of the home, or demographics.

For this market, perhaps no one has the data, just thought I’d ask.

Anyone?

I registered with FSBO but the buyer was just biking by as I was putting up the FSBO sign from Canadian Tire – $7 or so and a sharpie for the number. Super pro 🙂 Part of this is the location of the home which gets some foot traffic. I think FSBO is totally worth it for the MLS exposure at a grand cost of $535 or so.

Although it is not the best of times, we listed a home in BC (not Victoria) at the price we had determined prior to covid as we had already decided to sell this year and did the market research in January. Plan was to list for a month and then take it off the market for conceivably several years until the market improved if it didn’t sell. I wasn’t optimistic.

We had an unconditional offer on our house as immediately – with only a small discount from list price. No realtors involved so no commissions and docs and deposit are with the notary. Just a guy riding by on a bike who stopped as I put up the sign.

Now we are in his shoes looking around at what is on the market, and, as negative as the economic indicators are, there is not much to choose from. Might be worth taking a chance if you have a good place and don’t absolutely have to sell.

This is from yesterday:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

Right now, what is the average price per square foot for Detached Homes

Value of detached homes is mostly in their land. Building cost (~$250-$350), not price, per square foot is probably more useful for detached homes.

It is extremely slow in the real estate appraisal business these days. But it has allowed me to build a shed and landscape the side yard. I have even dug out some of my old exercise equipment in the hopes to trim down that spare tire.

As for what is happening in the real estate market, it takes a lot more digging and cross checking to determine a reliable and reasonable estimate of value these days. The lack of data means that finding three comparable sales similar to the property being appraised in order to determine value does not occur. The comparable sales are going to be all over the map varying significantly in size, age, condition and of course location.

That means you have to look at other evidence than just relying on three sales. Taking all that information and reconciling different values to determine the most probable value in this market. That usually includes a lot more use of statistics that some home owners and lenders have difficulty in understanding. Much easier just showing someone three pictures of similar looking houses that have sold and therefore your home value is within that range.

I thought that I might explain some of the other tools that may be used to determine market value rather than just relying on a tiny judgement sample of three sales that may not be that comparable to your property.

First of all your neighbourhood. Not necessarily the hood the real estate board uses but a geographical area surrounding your property with similar style housing. As an example, all of the houses where the age, house size and lot size brackets your home that have sold over the course of the last 12 months within a one-kilometer radius. That will give you the high and low values as well as the median price for the typical home like yours. If your home has been substantially renovated or has an amenity such as a water view then your home will lay at the mid to higher end of that range. This is very important information if you are a builder because you don’t want to over build for the neighbourhood, that ends up costing money and time.

Next is researching sales along your street going back say a decade. Finding a property that is highly similar in most physical and locational aspects to your home and then applying a time factor to that dated sale price to give you a calculated current price for what could be a near identical home to yours. This works well for properties that back onto golf courses or have views because the time adjusted value includes that amenity. This works really well on condominiums because you can time adjust the condominiums that sold directly above and below that have the same floor plan layout and views as your home.

Then there is the Sales to Assessment Ratio. Take all of the house or condo sales within a small geographical area that have occurred since the start of the year and determine what the typical property is selling at and their assessed value. Perhaps in your hood, homes since the beginning of the year have been selling at 105% of their current assessed value. This is a really fast and quick cross check if you’re buying a home. Takes all of 30 seconds to see if your offer is in the ball park or not. Some fiddling with the data is necessary to take out the obviously high and lows.

And lastly, there is the past sales history of your home. Looking back over the years to when and at what price your home sold for in the past and then applying a market determined time factor to that sale price. Sounds simple but there are some tricks and traps. If your home was bought in the last decade then this historical sales analysis would be reliable unless a new airport or some other external factor was built next door. Nice analysis if your trying to determine damages from a neighbour that blocked your view with a new home or a loss in value for oil contamination.

Now take all of those value estimates and the three recent comparable sales analysis and reconcile them into a market range in value for your home. Then consider your motivation. Do you want to sell quickly say in under 30 days? Then you would be looking at the mid to low range in value. If prices are stable to increasing and you don’t mind waiting a little longer for a sale then maybe a price at the mid to high range. If you want to be fair to both buyer and seller then somewhere around the average would be reliable and reasonable for both vendor and purchaser.

Easy peasy lemon squeasy, I just saved you the cost of an undergraduate degree.

A shout out to Leo, thanks for the referral.

Rumor on the steet is the Vivid at Yates/Johnson chard condo tower just got shut down due to a sick carpenter.

I just wanted to put a shout out for FSBO https://www.forsalebyowner.ca/. Not affiliated, but used it and it works if you are comfortable doing your own showings. Gets you onto MLS for $535 and they provide the template contract of purchase and sale. You negotiate the commission you’ll pay to the buyer’s realtor if there is one. All of this is done via their website – no need to meet anyone in person.

Future animal/vegan posts will be deleted. Sorry! It had a good run.

Happiness… is a warm gun.

I think you have to find a better buyers’ agent.

Several open houses I’ve been to have been manned by the seller’s agent. Several have been manned by a buyer’s agent (ostensibly hoping for new clients from walk-ins). Both of these kinds of open houses distribute the seller’s agent listing flyer.

Often, the flyers have incorrect latest assessed value printed on them. Often, asking the agent on hand — who is supposed to know all about this property, and is spending half a day showcasing the property — also verbally gives incorrect assessment value information.

Either way, it is either realtor incompetence or realtor fraud. For heaven’s sake, they have only ONE product to think about for an entire four hours, and they can’t get it’s numbers right?

How is any of that the public’s fault? It’s fascinating that your reply does not have a single word of blame for the realtors, who are obviously either incompetent or fraudulent. Instead, we the public are to blame if we didn’t get a “better buyer’s agent”? Really?

Their job is to get the best available price they can for their client, so that may include making the house they are trying to sell look better than it is.

Does that include outright lying? You know that is what we are talking about here, when we ask for assessed value. There’s no gray area. It’s either the right or the wrong info. If it is the wrong info, it is either incompetent or fraudulent. It is NOT excusable just because it is the seller’s agent acting on the seller’s behalf.

My jaw has dropped to the floor from your reply. What are the big commission bucks,and the realtor code of conduct, etc, all for if it’s up to the public to do careful due diligence to make sure every detail discussed from any realtor is true?

In the interest of full disclosure, are you or have you been a realtor?

… I have witnessed both buyers’agent and sellers’ agents quote the older assessment value when asked. Ive never heard of a real estate agent teaching clients about using the BC Assessment website, nor municipality property reports

I think you have to find a better buyers’ agent. My buyers’ agent has always given me full disclosure and also pointed me to BC Assessment site. As for the seller’s agent, as a buyer you should take everything they say and do with a grain of salt. Their job is to get the best available price they can for their client, so that may include making the house they are trying to sell look better than it is.

I agree with RB regarding animal agriculture. Its list of horrors are many, from viruses and antibiotic resistance to climate change. The worst part for me, though, is the ethics of the way these conscious feeling beings are treated. Its like a horror movie of the worst kind and nothing I want to contribute to. Its a reality that is hard for many people to acknowledge they contribute to and this is why I think there is a blind spot in society towards its harms. I am hoping there is a change coming, that people become more compassionate towards the suffering our food choices cause to farmed animals and more aware of the damage it does. I also find hope in the plant based options becoming available as well the potential for cell based meat products that are grown without harm to animals or the earth.

any moderately competent buyer would be looking at BC Assessment and pulling their respective municipalities property report.

Maybe for people that frequent this site, but a great many buyers don’t know about the BC Assessment website, and far fewer know about the municipality property report. (If there were even a fair number of “moderately competent buyers” as you describe, there would be far less use for realtors.)

Is it fair that those people who don’t know about those online tools are essentially often being defrauded? As I have mentioned in previous threads, I have witnessed both buyers’agent and sellers’ agents quote the older assessment value when asked. Ive never heard of a real estate agent teaching clients about using the BC Assessment website, nor municipality property reports.

What is the point of realtors splitting a $20,000-$30,000 (or more) commission when they can’t even get such an key detail correct?

Is there any doubt by anybody here that is the assessed values were overwhelmingly showing incorrect lower value numbers, that it would have been fixed long ago, or at the very least every single realtor would be tripping over themself to point out the correct number to clients?

It is time for us each to make our voice heard, and to demand action and accountability from the people being paid our tax dollars to protect consumers.
‘The Office of the Superintendent of Real Estate (OSRE) is a regulatory agency of the B.C. government that protects consumers who are buying, selling or renting a home.”
…
“OSRE provides oversight and regulation of the real estate industry in B.C. ”
…
“OSRE is mandated to protect the public interest and prevent harm to consumers.”

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/organizational-structure/ministries-organizations/central-government-agencies/office-of-the-superintendent-of-real-estate

I’m hearing rumblings that schools may reopen, in some form, to some degree, in mid- or late-May.

How do you quote someone else?

Stick a > in front of the text you want to quote, with a space in between.

How much fun is a blind date where you have to distance six feet apart? Sounds more like marriage than dating.

How do you quote someone else? There is no quote on the site via mobile or PC. Is there a special mobile app?

James Soper said “Ididn’t bother reading the article”.

Didn’t expect you would. Folks so entrenched in their personal world view & entitlements have no interest in changing, no matter who they’re hurting.

James Soper says “Nothing to do with my choices at all, but thanks for playing.”

The pandemic is directly related to meat eating. Those who eat meat contribute to past & future pandemics. How about this expert: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1963309/

Leo says “I’ve already set them up on a blind date.”

Thanks, but I don’t do that kind of charity.

Both Introvert & James Soper are always right. Try setting them up.

Goodness, it’s getting chilly in here! Sounds like there are some people who are one eyeroll from divorcing their spouse after all this ‘hygge’ we’ve been enjoying.

What a strange turn of discussion on the blog.

In my experience, most debates about veganism/vegetarianism bring up some good points but ultimately miss the mark: people like what they like for (often) irrational reasons that are nonetheless important in decision making.

It’s sort of similar to trying to convince two people to fall in love – all sorts of good reasons why it should work, but ultimately it doesn’t.

I’m more than happy to have my mind changed on something given sufficient evidence.

A purely theoretical assertion, given that you are always right.

Indeed. Your hill is arguing absolutely everything.

No hills here.
I’m more than happy to have my mind changed on something given sufficient evidence.

This housing blog seems to have veered into the twilight zone….People need to get out I think. Maybe foster a dog and use your time better than over thinking what is going on. :).

Introvert

There’s some weird ignorant hills here that some of you seem prepared to die on.

Indeed. Your hill is arguing absolutely everything.

And Introvert’s hill is being the most annoying persona on here I’ve ever had the displeasure to come across.

“We know from history that the housing market bounces back with vigor following recessions, usually aided by a steep drop in interest rates” says BCREA. Consider the source; however, in terms of “lower”, perhaps they think banks will pay you to borrow money? With all due respect, no one knows what will happen, all we know for sure is that what is happening to the local RE market is not good if you are a seller or expecting to sell. The fall will surely, no doubt says the experts, bring a rebound in infections [not the economy] – we are 12 to 18 months from certainty. Stay liquid, my friends. We are clearly in a recession, and only now is the RE market starting to see negative impacts. The bottom, be it listing or sales, is far off, I suspect. Lots of debt. Lots of job losses, Lots of tax payer dollars being burned. City of Vancouver begging for tax dollars – it is there, in the form of property tax hikes. They will be large. Good old Victoria is not immune. Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver………….we are next. Just say’in: be ready.

James Soper said “This is all off topic for the housing blog.”

You bring up a strawman and don’t have the courtesy to admit it.

James Soper said “You don’t know that. When there’s a large population of something, there’s going to be something that attacks it.
As Michael Crichton said “Life will find a way”.

Really? Experts say you’re wrong. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/20/factory-farms-pandemic-risk-covid-animal-human-health

James Soper said “You make the same choices in different ways. Totoro owns a cat. You likely drive (I bike). I eat food, i don’t care where it comes from and how it was raised so long as it’s good. Let those free of sin cast the first stone.

Your choices have the entire planet in lockdown, and guarantee it will happen again. The fact that you don’t care about other animals isn’t surprising.

There are about 21k deaths in NY state, so if that 13.9% of NYers or 2.7m people “have had CoVid-19” is correct, that means the fatality rate is 21,000/2.7m = 0.7%, including all cases and asymptomatic ones. Or one in 128 of all people. That’s actually higher than some other estimates. For example, it would imply about 35,000 deaths in BC if everyone gets it, a huge number given that we have 4,000 available hospital beds. But these numbers will change (up or down) based on the accuracy (false positives and negatives) of the test.

This would be remarkable if true. The “if true” part refers to antibody test being accurate, and a positive test indeed means “they have had CoVid-19” and not a false positive . As I understand it, this test is brand new, and so let’s hope it’s accurate….. (obviously , if true this would impact the fatality rate dramatically) .

“ New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.
The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it.
With more than 19.4 million people residents, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

Gilead Tumbles After Report That Chinese Trial Unsuccessful
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/gilead-plunges-after-report-that-chinese-trial-was-unsuccessful?srnd=premium-canada

Another one bites the dust.

Wonder when my buddy James is going to come back and tells us about all the blood we have on our hands because we poopooed hydroxychloriquine.

Coronavirus crisis turning off the Toronto real estate tap

The most common reason for sellers to list now is that they have bought another property, he explains.

Presumably they released conditions on the new property before selling the old one? Or the offer was unconditional?

I noticed dozens of downtown stores have their windows all covered with brown paper. Are these stores closed permanently due to COVID-19 or are they just papered for the duration of the shutdown?

If this many stores are permanently closed after just a few weeks of shutdown, then it’s scary for the overall local economy. The building owners will also be in dire straits too without rental income to pay their mortgages.

Part of building up a person’s immune system is being exposed to viruses and bacteria. If everyone changes their habits in such a way that they will never be exposed to anything and never getting close to animals, our immune systems will probably weaken and we could be even more susceptible to pandemics.
If there are ways to reduce the chances of dangerous diseases jumping to humans, we should pursue those. However, we will not be able to eradicate this altogether. It seems like a natural part of evolution.
I will continue to interact with animals and will not be bleaching my house daily, because I want my immune system to be prepared to fight off future new diseases with as much training as possible.

A deferral ends up costing the landlord, ex. if they have a 500k mortgage at 3% with 20 years left a three-month deferral will cost them an extra $2,750.

Your comparison does not compare apples to apples. A 3 month rent deferral for a tenant would assume the they catch up at the end of the 3 months. You are comparing this to deferring 3 months of mortgage payments for 20 years.
Let’s assume the rent/mortgage payments are $2000 a month. And assume both the tenant and the landlord double up the payments in the following 3 month to catch up on the deferral. This would only cost the landlord $2000 x 3 months x 3% x 0.25 years = $45.
That is not even in the same ball park as your estimate and should not be an undue hardship for the landlord.

Excuse the repost, but past (and the current) pandemics have started all over the globe. All for the same reason.

Currently one of the major issues that’s creeping up in hospitals is Candida auris, which is a highly infectious fungus that has high resistance to drugs because of fungicide use on farms. It’s currently in 19 countries and kills half of those it infects within 90 days. Nothing to do with animal farming at all.

Comic time… Back to the Future 35th anniversary

Excuse the repost, but past (and the current) pandemics have started all over the globe. All for the same reason.

Avian flu. Spanish (Swine) flu. Mad cow disease. Swine Flu (SARS). Corona virus. Etc.

So long as there are slaughterhouses and the exploitation of other animals, there will be pandemics with higher frequency than without.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/one-root-cause-of-pandemics-few-people-think-about/

However, I have a cat. I’m keeping her.

And I eat meat & cheese, and especially for cheese, will continue to do so.

I know some might argue for this and believe it, but you are going to get further faster with a more flexible approach

If this pandemic has shown me anything, it’s that a flexible approach means that some people just won’t do it.

You think vegetarianism is easy. I think not owning a pet is easy.
I think we can both agree that the pet owning meat eaters are to blame.

I’m not arguing for an extreme step. I’m stating that becoming vegetarian is pretty easy, within your locus of control, and reduces the possibility of future pandemics – among other good effects. Reducing meat consumption is a good first step given how animals are raised for consumption. You can’t control the world, but this is something you can do.

You mean vegan, not vegetarian, otherwise you’re still promoting a lot of animals in farm environments.
Also, as Marko would like to point out: No pets. Even better first step, given how animals are raised for the consumption by pets, as well as how they’re bred, and it’s even easier than veganism/vegetarianism. The only step is don’t buy a pet.

Simple solution. Just stop eating meat. You’ll end the majority of animal cruelty issues, stop a lot of greenhouse gas production and reduce the possibility of future pandemics all in one pretty easy move.

Not really.
You’d have to have no pets either, and no farm animals used for other things, like wool, or milk, or eggs. No horses to ride, or camels or elephants. You’re arguing an extremely strict veganism here.

There’s some weird ignorant hills here that some of you seem prepared to die on.
Let’s go over a few things:

1. Did Covid-19 come from a wet market?
   They don’t know, looks like there were multiple cases before the wet market in Wuhan, more likely that it just spread there.
2. Did Covid-19 come from a bat?
   They don’t know, it looks like it’s actually closer to a coronavirus from a pangolin than any that they know of from bats.
3. Is Covid-19 a brand new virus?
   Yes, it’s never been seen before. All Pandemics would be caused by viruses or bacteria that have never been seen before.
4. Is Covid-19 related to other viruses?
   Yes, it’s a coronavirus. Others that humans get include SARS, MERS, and 4 others that are among the viruses that people refer to as the common cold.
5. Did those come from bats or other wild animals?
   None that we know of.
   SARS jumped from Cats, and MERS from camels.
   The other 4 have been around in humans for a long time, and they don’t know where they jumped from.

As an addendum: here’s a bunch of disease you can get from deer, https://iacuc.wsu.edu/zoonoses-associated-with-deer/, they include TB. Chronic Wasting Disease was the prion disease I was thinking of earlier. It doesn’t affect humans (yet), but it’s similar to mad cow disease (which jumped to humans in 1996). There’s also Lyme disease, which you don’t need to eat deer meat to get.

I am saying that the landlord whom has the option of mortgage deferral and a tenant whom can’t be evicted is on somewhat if a level playing field.

I see where you are coming from but you can’t charge interest on late rents payments – only $25 if it is written into your agreement. A deferral ends up costing the landlord, ex. if they have a 500k mortgage at 3% with 20 years left a three-month deferral will cost them an extra $2,750.

I’m generally not, either. But now that you mention it, China did attempt and partially succeed at covering up the outbreak in the early weeks. I think we can all agree that was a no-no.

Doesn’t seem like it was China that did it, but someone in Hunan province who didn’t know any better.
It’s not like Western countries have been any better even with months of warning. Look how well the US covered up their outbreak for months.

Or you know, Hanlon’s razor – “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”.

That was a super interesting article.

I don’t know about you, but my fear-o-meter went back up a notch after reading that. Now I’m leaning back towards the opening-up-is-a-very-bad-idea camp. Houses and jobs be damned- I don’t want to catch this thing! Need to wait it out for more data. Data – I believe Leo would be happy about that.

It’s not the eating of the wild meat that’s the big disease risk

I don’t know. Not all wild animals are created equal when it comes to harbouring pathogens that are a clear and present danger to humans. I believe bats in particular fall into the deadlier-to-humans camp, and therefore should definitely be on the do-not-eat list:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200210144854.htm

I understand that COVID-19 is an unforeseeable event but the ultimate responsibility still falls on the landlord

Yeah, that is not how risk management works.

The risk of failure of a tenant to pay rent is why you can evict and go through collections. Everyone needs to be able to mitigate damages. No-one would ever be a landlord if you couldn’t do this. Same reason there is professional liability insurance. No-one is willing to take this type of risk without fair processes to manage the risk.

If the government is going to remove the right to evict they likely need to provide even greater support to landlords or reverse that decision depending on how long this goes on.

Also, the debt the tenant owes doesn’t just disappear. For marginal tenants who are not concerned with their credit rating that may not be much of an issue, but for your average responsible person who expects to pay their bills as they will probably want to mitigate too – by moving somewhere less expensive, getting a roommate or coming to a payment arrangements. Landlords may also want to voluntarily reduce rent for a good tenant or allow them to break a lease.

COVID-19 cases spike in B.C., as province announces 71 new cases, 3 more dead

Coinciding with Easter long weekend’s transmission?

COVID-19 cases spike in B.C., as province announces 71 new cases, 3 more dead

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-cases-spike-in-b-c-as-province-announces-71-new-cases-3-more-dead-1.4907277

Ks112, the article patriotz linked to mentioned that tenants’ rights groups in “Toronto, New York and Seattle have been advocating for citywide strikes against payment of rent.”

That sort of made me go, “Hmmm,” and had me wondering what banks would do if mortgagors, en masse, decided to pull the same stunt.

Is wide-scale voluntary non-payment of rent a “market force” that we let “take care of itself”?

RE agents on the blog- are you receiving more calls with talks of some restrictions be eased?

China. They have assets in the US – they are the largest creditor [bond holder].

Actually Japan has regained its place as the #1 debt holder, by increasing their holdings while China reduced theirs.

But yes, the Orange One has a track record of talking tough without actually doing much. If the US actually tried to get out its debt to China it would damage confidence in the global economy at the worst possible time.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/5-countries-own-most-us-debt.asp

Condo sold for $119k (20%) under ask
House in Sooke for $75k (17%) under ask (building issues)

If you dig a bit deeper makes sense

Condo has large upcoming expenses (and very few units to spread them out over) and strata fees already pushing $700/month. Had been trying to sell it since June 2019 and already dropped asking price 90k.

PDS on the house is not good….can’t see a bank touching that.

I know at least one of them was an unconditional offer….which brings me back to the point if you catch a panicked seller with a sure bet (unconditional offer) they will flex on price moreso then they would otherwise.

I had thought investment properties were eligible for the mortgage deferral?

Introvert said: “And, yes, North American slaughterhouses and meat-packing plants are also risky, but probably less so compared to these wet markets.”

I see you haven’t been following the recent North American news about the employees of slaughterhouses and poultry plants coming down with a form of COVID-19 with higher percentages of severe illness and deaths. Or maybe you missed the news over the past years of poultry plant workers getting H5N1 infections. Or maybe the Swine Flu of 2009 rings a bell with you.

My point is simply that there’s no need to point fingers at other cultures when our culture also contributes plenty of deadly viruses to the world at large.

Ks112
Investment properties, recreation properties and secondary residences do not qualify for mortgage deferral. The market will handle it. The deferral is only for mortgages on primary residences.

I remember wondering what would be the catalyst for a correction and never in a million years did I think of a pandemic. Crazy times.

As a landlord I don’t agree with this, if you have an investment property then it is an investment with a risk reward profile.

I just think that if landlords have to absorb the risk of prolonged non-payment, and a ban on evictions for non-payment, during a pandemic, then it would be fair for banks to be subject to a smidgen of financial hardship, too.

Yup, chicken farms host chickens in battery cages in horrible conditions, but they don’t also host — right beside and on top of them — bats, cats, dogs, reptiles, rodents, ducks, rabbits, and so on.

And?
They don’t even know whether this disease came from the wet market.
They have identified instances of it before the ones from wet market in Wuhan.

Chickens in battery cages live there their entire lives, it’s not like the animals in the wet markets are living there. They’re there until they get slaughtered. That’s the point of them being there.

“Landlords shouldn’t have to reduce rent unless/until banks offer mortgage forgiveness.”

As a landlord I don’t agree with this, if you have an investment property then it is an investment with a risk reward profile. Rents going up during the good times and a tenant who doesn’t pay rent on time is part of the risk return profile of this investment. If a landlord didn’t do the proper due diligence before renting to a tenant then the onus is on them, I understand that COVID-19 is an unforeseeable event but the ultimate responsibility still falls on the landlord. Had I rented my basement suite to a government worker couple like I had done with the upstairs suite then my risk of being short changed on rent will be greatly reduced. Going forward, tenant job security will be something I put more emphasis on.

This is mainly due to the lack of access to refrigeration. Until poor countries get rich enough that everyone has access to steady electricity, can buy a fridge and freezer, you won’t be able to get rid of wet markets.

Understood. But doesn’t diminish the fact that wet markets are risky from an infectious diseases perspective. And, yes, North American slaughterhouses and meat-packing plants are also risky, but probably less so compared to these wet markets.

I also said “host,” which you conveniently dropped.

All farms in NA host animals.
I guess I’m unsure what you’re point is there?

Yes, the answer is yes, they do.

“It is also possible that transmission can occur in the killing and butchering of the animals”

Transmission of a respiratory disease… really? really?

Have yet to see a North American farm offering bats, cats, dogs, reptiles, rodents, ducks, and rabbits, many of which are alive, in tiny cages, piled one on top of another, in an area of small square footage.

You mean like chicken farms here?

I also like in the quote there, dead bats vs fresh pork.
Why not fresh bat meat, and dead pigs?

I’m sorry but anyone thinking that the butcher and consumption of exotic/wild animals shouldn’t be completely outlawed is just nuts.

Plenty of people eat deer, elk and moose meat in Canada. A lot of our fish is caught in the wild. Where do you draw the line? In lots of poor countries, wild animals might be their only access to affordable meat.

Wet markets exist in almost all third world countries, not just China, not just Asia.

This is mainly due to the lack of access to refrigeration. Until poor countries get rich enough that everyone has access to steady electricity, can buy a fridge and freezer, you won’t be able to get rid of wet markets.

Do most North American farms host and butcher various types of wild and sometimes exotic animals in the exact same small location?

So wait, you think it’s the butchering that’s spreading these diseases?
Or you think that we’re more likely to get diseases from wild animals than domesticated?
Guess we should shutdown all the fish markets in town.

No. Farms in this part of the world usually harbour domesticated animals. Big difference. You wouldn’t be defending the practice of offering exotic animals in these markets by chance, would you?

Animal is an animal. Please explain why one is considered exotic and one isn’t? And further, explain the “Big Difference”, specifically from a zoonosis perspective.

Barrister, 40 % price decline in Victoria? Careful, Gwac is gonna come after you now.

If one in four businesses shut how vibrant will the downtown actually be?

Lots of colourful tents?

Good Morning: Not a prediction but I can see the possibility of a major real estate collapse in Victoria. I dont think that a 40% drop in prices is out of the question. I imagine we are about to discouver exactly how important tourism is to the city. I suspect that tourism for this summer is virtually dead and probably much the same next summer particularly if we see a second wave of Covid in the winter.
Good chance that the borders will still be closed by September so you can forget about the flood of student renters from abroad. Equally, immigration will be restricted so housing demand will be limited to a stable local population. Alberta money is going to be less than ever.

My guess is that the first cracks might show up with all the AirB&B condos who increasingly find it difficult to even find long term renters. I drove through downtown the other day and really started wondering how many of the businesses will be able to open up again. If one in four businesses shut how vibrant will the downtown actually be?

Asian Wet markets are literally just farmers markets, vs. dry markets which sell electronics and other stuff.

I believe you left out the part “offering live wildlife.”

So pretty much any farm in NA.
Like where Swine Flu came from.

No. Farms in this part of the world usually harbour domesticated animals. Big difference. You wouldn’t be defending the practice of offering exotic animals in these markets by chance, would you?