April 14 Market Update
Four weeks since sales started collapsing in Victoria due to the lockdown it looks like we’ve finally hit the bottom. Although the percentage decrease has kept increasing compared to last year (now down about 70% from the year ago levels), that is only because last year’s sales were increasing (as they do every spring) and this time we’re fairly flat at about 7 per day (in Greater Victoria).
Two weeks ago I wondered how many must-sellers there might be in Victoria, and current listing numbers give us a clue that it might be about a third of the people normally selling. Without the lockdown we’d have about 300 new listings a week, while in the last 7 days we had only 112. Big banks have processed around 600,000 mortgage deferral requests in Canada, which amounts to approximately one in ten mortgage holders putting off their payments. Yesterday in a story about Vancouver staring into the abyss of insolvency, the results of an online survey were released that showed 46% of households had lost income, and 32% could not pay their April mortgage in full, while 45% expected not to be able to in May. I would take the survey with a grain of salt as the sample size was small and it’s unclear if that projection was factoring in government payments like CERB. Nevertheless, those numbers are staggering if true and highlight the risk inherent in housing prices that by necessity require two incomes and maximum leverage to afford. Entirely independent of the virus threat, if two incomes are required to service a mortgage, households are twice as vulnerable to any downturn.
Unemployment numbers were also released for March, with Victoria unemployment making a leap from 3.4% to 4.6% and BC going from 5.2% to 7.6%.
That doesn’t seem like much on a chart, but it’s the biggest one month jump since data is readily available (1976). It’s also only the beginning, since layoffs had hardly started in March, and April numbers will jump again and much higher. So far six million have applied for emergency income assistance, which is nearly a third of our entire labour force. The upcoming unemployment data will definitely distort the vertical axis on any economic charts for decades. The emergency measures are such that the full extent of this situation will not be apparent until approximately September when some of the temporary measures start expiring.
Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| April 2020 |
Apr
2019
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 36 | 95 | 696 | ||
| New Listings | 103 | 268 | 1392 | ||
| Active Listings | 2225 | 2268 | 2751 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 35% | 35% | 50% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | -56% | -66% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 4.0 | ||||
Inventory is down 13% from this time last year, but it has started to creep up again now that we are past the wave of cancellations and the sales rate is not sufficient to clear even the drastically reduced rate of new listings. Don’t expect a rush of inventory to come online this summer. We will likely stay low over peak selling season, but what happens after that is anyone’s guess.
The big question is if the low sales are leading to pricing pressure, and how various segments of the market are moving. We’ve seen a few individual sales that indicate seller distress, but overall there is no clear evidence yet that the market is moving lower. The key now as I’ve said for a few weeks is to watch individual listings and sales prices yourself to see if sellers are likely to be motivated, however the first place we will see movement in the market if it happens is in increasing price concessions from sellers. If that happens we should then see it trickle down to lower sales to assessed value ratios.
Sales to ask ratio distribution by week. Coloured bars enclose the 25% to 75% percentiles, whiskers are max/min.
Over asks have definitely been reduced along with sales, but so far the majority of the few sales that are still happening every week are coming in at prices pretty similar to before the market locked up. One big challenge is that with so few sales, there is little price discovery happening. What is happening in the luxury market? Well in normal times there are only a few sales every month, so no one knows what’s happening if there’s only one or no sales. BC Assessment will have a huge challenge with this year’s assessment roll because there will be so few sales to base valuations on.
.
Avian flu. Spanish (Swine) flu. Mad cow disease. Swine Flu (SARS). MERS. Corona virus. Etc.
Past pandemics have started all over the globe. All for the same reason.
So long as there are slaughterhouses, there will be pandemics.
Monday numbers: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/04/20/sales-hit-bottom-but-for-how-long/
Almost all car accident deaths – whether inside or outside of the car – are the result of dangerous or impaired driving. I still see TV commercials from MADD and the like. The problem is that to get deaths down further we would need a lot more enforcement which is expensive, and which would catch a lot of “ordinary drivers”.
As for flu, every fall we keep getting reminded to get the shot. In a free society that’s about all you can do.
I find the ‘are we overreacting to Covid’ articles really ironic. The question is – as a society how much do we value human life, and how much legal architecture (policies, laws, regulations, norms) are we willing to enact to save a (usually small) number of lives.
Rationally, we should try to be consistent. So all lives are equally valuable, and they are all quite valuable – we recently discussed here how actuaries and other modellers values lives at about $10M apiece. So everything from helmet laws to amber alerts to trying to get clean drinking water to FN reserves, regulations around food health, even how we view terrorism – presumably they all should be framed to some extent around recognizing that human lives are valuable and equally valued.
So just to pick a few random examples – if the Walkerton, ON E. coli water crisis was a big deal (6 people died in 2000), contractor John Phare killed fighting BC wildfires (2015) was a big deal, realtor Lindsay Buziak’s murder in 2008, nurse Elizabeth Wettlaufer murdering 8 residents in a nursing home, the opioid crisis which has apparently resulted in hundreds of deaths in 2016 in BC alone (more than 900, with over 700 outside Vancouver) – if all of these things are a big deal, and we value human life equally (ok, I get that even if it’s morally dubious, we often charge sudden deaths from violent acts differently from deaths due to disease or accidents; and drug-related deaths and suicides are in their own class because of the role of the individual) – surely, despite everything else, we should value the deaths of over 1500 Canadians from Covid19 within a 2 month period extremely highly.
The question isn’t – oh, it’s jut like car accidents or the flu (which it isn’t – I hope we’ve settled that now). It’s more like – why the f*** are we so inconsistent with our callous attitudes towards car accident deaths or the flu?
I think the concern about things like condo elevator buttons will fade quickly. There are so many areas of life in which we share airspace or touch common surfaces. At the moment, people (including me) are hyper-aware of all the ways to catch a virus… but humans forget easily and they forget quickly. Soon enough all of the benefits of condo ownership will rise back up in people’s minds.
I know many on this site hold the opinion that people live in condos only because they can’t afford houses, but that isn’t true for many. I’ve always loved condo living and so do many others.
The whole insurance “crisis” was also totally overblown. My condo fees went up $29/month due to the strata insurance premium increase (ours renewed at the end of March) and my personal insurance went up $4/month to cover the larger strata deductible of $50k. I’d have rather kept that money, but hardly an earth shattering event.
The article I linked says:
No vacate clause except as specified. If they include a general vacate clause and the tenant agrees, it has no effect, because it’s contrary to the law.
Much work that is now done in person by doctors could be done by nurse practitioners, or remotely. More emphasis on prevention.
That probably isn’t the whole solution and that means taxes will have to go up. What I’m pretty sure of is that charging user fees or co-payments is not going to reduce the cost of the system. Look at the US.
Nan: The article is behind a pay wall. Limited use posting those.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/we-may-be-overreacting-to-an-unremarkable-coronavirus/news-story/3d78be873fac364af49f5fc949e3eaeb
Big Ioannidis fan.
I am guessing that sales this last week are still slower than last year. Talking to a friend who had been thinking about buying a condo in the Songhees but now says he does not want anything where he has to share an elevator. Wonder if that view is becoming more common amongst seniors.
CMHC is a profit maker for the government.
They also do a lot of work on rental supply and assembling housing data. Absolutely not something we want to get rid of.
Patrick the other thing that factors in to that is many people, like myself, wish to live closer to the core because i don’t want to spend 90 minutes a day in traffic when i could be with my family. I have given up a lot to live near the core as i find the sacrifice worth the time with friends and family. Now with many businesses realizing they can work from home I think it makes sense – keep your jobs – dont’ need to drive in to town, keep all your time, and pay less for everything else. If my work allows me to continue to work from home 3 days a week once this ‘normalizes’ i would be happy to move out to westshore. Just have to find a daycare out there which i believe is easier than in town. I would suspect this could be the case for many people.
Didn’t miss anything. You can still legally create a fixed term tenancy with a firm move-out date with a mutual agreement to end at a fixed date using the correct RTB form. Of course, atm, you can’t evict so it is not very effective if there is non-compliance. That will likely change if we continue to have good covid management.
Still going to be a lot of people who want to be in the core after this is over. I have to admit that for myself the farm has become slightly more attractive in that we could be pretty self-reliant.
(a) not too many – people never liked waiting hours for treatment
(b) not too many – thank you tele-health – my doctor is also soliciting remote business these days – an excellent time to get good service imo. Given the choice, I will never ever go back to in-person untimely visits to the (plague) office where a telehealth visit will do. One of the perks of covid was forcing practitioners to suddenly get the tech together or have almost zero business.
We’ve had discussions here over the last few years about house hunters preference for homes in the core. We are told that young people especially prefer being close to city center so they can walk or bike to work, and avoid a long commute. I’ve argued that this “core loving” preference is one of the reasons prices are so high.
Anyway, with CoVid, that preference (in USA) may be changing fast …. suddenly a small box high rise condo in city center isn’t as attractive as a rural house with acreage an hour away from the city….
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/redfin-ceo-rural-home-demand-shows-profound-psychological-change-amid-coronavirus.html?__twitter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal
“Demand for rural homes shows ‘profound, psychological change’ due to coronavirus, Redfin CEO says. There has been a “flip” to demand in rural areas and away from cities, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said. “
I agree, but at least we would get rid of $400 million worth of paper pushing.
The method that totoro suggested still seems to be legal.
The key would be having the mutual agreement up front. If you rent without that then you can’t evict later unless for the usual allowed reasons.
As demonstrated many times here, millenials are waiting/wishing for the boomers to kick the bucket so they can get into Oak Bay SFH for half price.
The covid-19 pandemic costs will be felt for generation to come, and it will be worst if we lose one of Canada main export commodity from AB.
Bitumen is incredibly cheap right now. However, as demonstrated in the past many companies from around the world tripped over themselves to buy into the Canadian oil sand, but from poor political policies and the a few loud minorities caused many projects to be abandoned because of uncertainty time frame.
Just for an example, China is growing and having demand for more energy, then there is India just starting to move into the developing phase as what China was in the late 90s, and the rest of the undeveloped countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc… are looking for ways to move up the ladder.
There are 5 Indian refineries (one super refinery can process 1.2 million barrels a day) that were designed with the capability to refine bitumen are refining at 20% or less bitumen into fuel at the moment, and the rest of the refining are expensive lighter crude. Hence, once Canadian oil get to tide water then the Indian and others can buys our bitumen at a fair price for their refineries.
I believe that there is a place for Canada oil in the international market, just as our coal, lumber, wheat and fish, because the world population is growing with greater number of people moving out of poverty, therefor the demand for energy will be greater in the future. Heck, even the American are making money shipping cheap coal out of BC coast, because their eco warriors blocked the Oregon port. Hence, there will be money to be make with our oil & gas.
Patriotz said:
“It’s really not a solution at all.”
Speaking of no solution at all, I didn’t see you mention any counter-ideas to the growing problems.
What’s your solution to a medical care budget that is perpetually growing faster than the rate of inflation, whilst we simultaneously have longer waits at,or early-closing, drop-in clinics?
Clearly the status quo is the problem. Or should we all just wait until Canada is eventually bankrupted one way or another, and are forced to adopt private medical insurance a-la U.S. system (much to their delight)? Now that’s a great solution!
Their what?
I bet the usage of telehealth services like Babylon went up massively during this. And once people realize they can use it for simple stuff they won’t go back.
B.C. Supreme Court judge rejects injunction sought by homeowners against speculation tax
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-supreme-judge-rejects-injunction-speculation-tax-1.5537553
Month-to-month is not a fixed term. I doubt many tenants would agree to 1 month fixed terms. Maybe these “shorter term” furnished rentals do have a market.
1. Couples realizing they don’t actually get along being stuck at home together and thinking about separating.
2. Roommates that might have a different views on social distancing.
3. Health workers (and other high risk workers) that want to isolate themselves from their family
Don’t think the above categories will be able to pick up the slack in tourism though.
People with dental insurance tend to have good jobs in the first place. People without – well many lose their teeth, and that’s pretty much the end of it. Not so with medical problems.
User fees tend to deter people from seeking medical help when a problem is just beginning, and it ends up being treated at greater cost later. They also incur an administrative overhead that costs both the doctor and the insurer.
It’s really not a solution at all.
Leo S said: “how many of those previous visits were completely unnecessary and how many were required ”
Time for a very small fee to be required for any family doctor, clinic, or emergency medical visit. This could be deductible on income tax returns, for people with lower income.
Private sector health/dental insurance has deductions, and people live with it. A small fee is nothing by comparison.
It’s not a perfect solution, but the status quo (before covid-19) wasn’t working. People were waiting far too long to see a doctor (or watching walk-in clinics closing early every day), while medicare budget has long been outpacing inflation.
These are tough times. It is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for government to implement some tough but practical solutions without necessarily having everyone scream in protest.
Probably a bit of both.
Also, many doctor appointments are simply to refill prescriptions, which pharmacies can now do.
Also, patients can now see their family doctor in a more timely manner, so they aren’t going to walk-in clinics as much.
Patriotz said:
“That’s imposing social engineering on the banks’ risk management”
So the big 5 banks can’t fail due to taking on bad risk, but they get all the winnings when irresponsible gambles pay off. What can possibly go wrong? I’d like to find a casino where they’ll let me gamble that way, keep giving me money when I bet more money than I have, and lose.
From a Bloomberg article 4 days ago: “Today, Canadian households owe C$1.76 for every dollar in disposable income. In Vancouver, that spikes to more than C$2.30 — a ratio that puts the so-called supercar capital of North America on par with Iceland before the global financial crisis.” [Though to be fair, a lot of money coming into Vancouver is undeclared]
…
“Canadians owe C$2.3 trillion in mortgages, credit card, and other consumer debt, about equal to the country’s GDP, which is an even higher ratio than the U.S. had before its housing bust.”
One would think the responsible people in charge should realize the party is over, that this isn’t funny anymore. Canada is beyond US 2008 debt levels, for crying out loud. If this outrageous consumer debtload combined with covid-19 doesn’t scare or force the powers that be into implementing tougher Canadian policies, I don’t know what will. It’s time for them to stop worrying less about if voters will be happy with them, and more about the distasteful medicine that we need to take to keep Canada alive.
I wish they would start with rules that outlaw any bonuses for Canadian CEOs/management for any years that the government has to bail them out, AND for the three or four years previous to that. Yes, that means retroactively retrieving bonuses that already went out for the long-gone CEOs that started bad policies before leaving the job.
Patriotz:
“You can’t evict a month-to-month tenant because you want to go to short term rentals.”
Well you can, if the tenant doesn’t realize their rights, which sadly a great many don’t.
It’s nice to know that the landlord can be fined for up to equivalent a year’s rent, if they
evict somebody against the rules, or if their reason for eviction is discovered to be a lie (e.g. “my son is moving back in to the place”; in this case the family member has to stay there at least a year).
Yep just look at medimap for walk in wait times. Often zero to 40min when before this it was either hours or fully booked.
So the question is, how many of those previous visits were completely unnecessary and how many were required and now people are going untreated for other conditions that will come back to bite us later?
Got an e-mail from my doctor’s office the other day that basically said, “Hey, we’re still taking appointments (virtual and non) if you need us.”
Reading between the lines, it said, “Hey, our appointment numbers are in the tank, and our doctors are losing income, so make an appointment, would ya?”
I guess our collective attempt not to tax our healthcare system during a pandemic is, in some ways, being too successful…
Guess you missed this:
http://www.bellalliance.ca/new-residential-tenancy-rules-fixed-term-leases-rent-increases
And while we’re on the topic, how many more strata boards are likely to ban short-term rentals now?
Face it, the twenty year old students are figuring out that Covid really does not have much to do with them and if the old ones kick then they get to inherit.
Police non-emergency line. It is not illegal but it is my understanding that the police are educating folks on PHO physical distancing guidance. If there are noise issues then there are both nuisance (police) and noise bylaw (municipal enforcement) remedies. You could also print out the PHO guidance and leave it in their mailbox.
Only because evictions are currently suspended, which I suspect will be one of the earlier orders to be lifted. You can otherwise rent for a fixed term with a mutual agreement to end tenancy filled in at the start of the tenancy with a set move-out date.
Try giving them dirty looks through the window.
Not too concerned about the noise – it’s more the global pandemic thing and the disregard of physical distancing guidelines.
You can’t evict a month-to-month tenant because you want to go to short term rentals. But let them kid themselves.
If the noise is bothering you, you can call the police non-emergency line and report it. The police will come and handle it, and you (the complainant) will remain anonymous.
If you’re in Saanich, here’s the pertinent section of the bylaw:
PRIVATE PROPERTY
No person, being the owner of occupier or being in possession or control of real
property shall suffer or permit any person to make or cause to be made any noise or
sound therein or thereon which disturbs or tends to disturb the quiet, peace, rest,
enjoyment, comfort or convenience of the neighbourhood or of persons in the
vicinity thereof.
https://www.saanich.ca/assets/Local~Government/Documents/Bylaws~and~Policies/noise-suppression-bylaw-1993-no-7059.pdf
That’s imposing social engineering on the banks’ risk management. CMHC itself is social engineering of course, but that’s what it’s for and it’s clear who’s on the hook
It doesn’t make any difference whether they are taking shots of tequila or playing a scantily clad game of twister. What the folks below are telling you is you can’t do anything about it unless they contravene local bylaws (noise being the main one). Covid has nothing to do with it unless it’s more than 50 people.
I’ve noticed a definite uptick in listing of what appear to be AirBnB’s now on the rental market on FB marketplace. I notice that many are month-to-month so I guess only want income from local renters until the tourism market is back in place. Haven’t followed UsedVic in a couple months so can’t say there. Did just do a search for ‘Cordova’ on UseVic which is a query I run from time to time and WOW! that’s quite a few more listings than I’m used to seeing. Not a solid number to give you but I can say it’s a significant increase. Just saw ads for a a couple of different suites that I know were on AirBnB in months past. Interesting…..
…a more accurate description would be crammed around a patio table doing tequila shots.
They are keeping their gatherings under 50 people. I assume their patio is big enough to keep everyone 2 meters apart, so they would be following the guidelines 😉
Well there is no actual public health order against gatherings less than 50 people. But in Victoria the police have been going around breaking up these house parties (not sure how).
437 furnished rentals listed on Usedvictoria. Too bad I have no previous numbers for context, but that seems extremely high. Anyone been keeping an eye on those?
Question for the group… What do you do when your UVic student neighbours are having a 14 person patio party for the second time in three days?
We would still shoulder the risk because Canada would bail out (any of) the Big Six banks were they to fail. They wouldn’t even think twice.
But we could force the banks to hold more capital to decrease the likelihood of insolvency.
Oh look, golf courses in the Lower Mainland are permitted to stay open, but all the provincial parks have to close:
http://pgabc.org/sites/default/files/COVID%20VCH%20to%20all%20Golf%20Courses%20April%2016%202020.pdf
Get rid of CMHC. 10% for first time buyers, 15% of non-first time buyers, 25% of non-principal residence and let the banks absorb the risk.
In 2018 total operating expenses of CMHC – including all employee compensation – were $398M. You’ll have to wait for the 2019 report to see the impact of the new program, but I think it will fall a bit short of your estimate. Of course we could just get rid of CMHC and make every buyer pay 20% down.
https://eppdscrmssa01.blob.core.windows.net/cmhcprodcontainer/sf/project/cmhc/aboutus/corporate%20reporting/annual-report/cmhc-annual-report-2018.pdf
And probably 350M to run the program :)………..government at it’s best.
John Dean park gate is normally closed each winter from Nov to March 15, but you could still walk down the nice trail into the park all year around. Guess it is not possible right now, and hopefully they will open to pedestrian in May.
They mean some restrictions could last that long, not current level of restrictions.
First Dix says the virus/social-distancing might last for years, then they close Government House grounds due to perceived violation of social distancing rules, therefore Government House grounds could be closed for years!!!
Time to drop an email to Dix:
HLTH.Minister@gov.bc.ca
BC CDC site has added a dashboard that gets updated 5pm mon-Friday. Has some useful data, and can filter by health authority.
For example, Vancouver Island (which includes part of mainland north of whistler)
Health Authority: Vancouver Island
Cases: 94 New Cases: 0
Currently Hospitalized: 7
Total Hospitalized to Date: 23
Currently Admitted to ICU: 2
Confirmed Deaths: 3
Recovered: 58
Hopefully they’ll keep adding to it (They’ve made it too “fancy”/browser dependent IMO, and then they have a separate fancier version of it using Intenet explorer as a browser (uggh)
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded
It can also be accessed from here http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data
A bit idiotic since even Bonnie Henry has repeatedly stated that outside exercise is not the main issue. The result of closing some parks is to squeeze more people into the remaining open parks.
No kidding. Despite Dr. Henry saying again and again that she wasn’t that concerned about people going outside and fleeting passing on trails wasn’t realistically a way to spread this.
I don’t agree with closing the grounds at Government House. Nor all the provincial parks.
A few weeks ago, we were able to drive to the top of John Dean Park/ȽÁU,WELṈEW̱*, the starting point of some of my favourite hikes in Greater Victoria. Now, the gate is closed at the bottom, eliminating easy access to a dozen younger-kid-friendly hikes in that forest. Complete overkill, if you ask me.
*Pronounced “Tlay will nook”
Is it just me or is anyone else finding reading the news something to dread. While I love my wife’s company I am finding that I miss the day to day social interactions of simple things like chatting with the neighbours while playing cards. Even going for a walk is less of a joy having to dodge people.
Meanwhile, the idiots at government house have decided to close their grounds (actually our grounds since we pay for it) on the pretext that not everyone uses the grounds practiced social distancing. It is the only park in Rockland and a lot of old people where using it because you could social distance while getting your exercise. Now we get to run out to the middle of the road to dodge both cars and people.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/canada-region-that-checked-the-virus-sees-years-of-distancing
USA at about 40k deaths now, looks like they’ll easily hit 60k by the end of April.
Don’t see how they don’t get to 100k.
Data from the federal government:
2061 people have taken advantage of the First time home buyer shared equity program where government will own 5-10% of your house.
$35M total value of all the mortgages issued
Average loan amount is $17,000, indicating average property value of $340,000.
A grand total of 9 applications from Victoria were received, and 5 funded. Zero impact on our market as it was intended to have.
Gotcha. Then we’re on the same page.
Totally agree, I meant not declaring income.
Maybe the Mom and Pops with mortgage-helpers who don’t declare suite income will become a future CRA target, and they should be.
While not declaring suite income is tax fraud, IMO, I don’t think it’s fair to call the PRE/CG situation tax fraud, as the current rules leave a lot of wiggle room:
“Relatively small” has been mostly interpreted by accountants as 50% or less, as no concrete percentage is specified.
As for structural changes, what if those changes were already in the home when you bought it, as is the case for most people? According to most accountants, that doesn’t disqualify you for the PRE.
Finally, the CCA rule is the only crystal clear one of the three.
https://www.goldengirlfinance.com/2020/01/the-lowdown-on-home-rental-suites-and-the-cra/
Not to be a bit of a downer, but it is possible for the next few years that people might actually be looking at capital losses on their properties.
Even we did get it (>70% infected), no one knows how long the immunity would last, other than it is likely short lived (https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/). So herd immunity is only a painful and short term solution, if ever possible.
In most cases, 80 to 95 percent of the population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread – if you cannot be reinfected once infected – not clear at this point. The study you are referencing showed that with 50X85 higher infection rate only 2.5% and 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents would have been infected.
The best way to do this is to vaccinate. To see this occur through community transmission would be catastrophic.
Herd immunity can’t be far away if this statement is true:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
Agreed but with suites it would be for less than 50% of the house vs the whole house when reclassifying as business income.
This. Maybe not next year because of the optics but once you have the data this is low hanging fruit. No public sympathy for tax fraud.
Maybe so, but going forward CRA is going to have a lot more information to work with, first from the spec tax (first declaration in 2019) and now the rent supplement.
And future governments are going to try to bring in every dollar they can.
Same as going from no taxation to capital gains taxation.
I don’t think much or any of that would have been from capital gains on a rental suite. Where the CRA gets the big bucks is when they are able reclassify the proceeds as (business) income. So when a house flipper says the house is their principal residence, but CRA determines the full price difference between sold price and purchase price is business income vs completely exempt from taxes. Also when it is not a principal residence reclassifying from capital gain to business income makes a huge difference.
https://www.advisor.ca/columnists_/wilmot-george/selling-real-estate-the-cra-is-watching/
See the discussion below. These studies are trying to measure the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate), so basically looking for anyone with antibodies that would be evidence they were infected at some point and then looking at the death ratio. The CFR (Case fatality ratio) is only those diagnosed as having the disease which is very likely those who are symptomatic. So while it may be true that the IFR of COVID19 is similar to the CFR of the flu, those are two different measures so can’t be compared.
Take a look at this paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/
In the very bad H1N1 flu season of 2009, serology studies like the ones you reference came to a death rate of 1 to 10 deaths per 100,000 infections. So that is 0.001% to 0.01% compared to, as you say perhaps 0.1-0.24% for COVID-19.
Great to see those studies appearing though. Will need more of this to see how close we are to herd immunity.
Yup, my suite is illegal and I’ve always declared suite income on my tax returns.
The municipality determines it.
That’s been the running theory on this blog for years, and it has yet to pan out in practice.
Sure, that’s why actuaries get paid the big bucks, no? Of course my comment was more a humanitarian one with respect to our attitudes towards the dying and vulnerable in this crisis, In any case, thanks for the link – interesting, I never knew what the actual dollar amount on a life was.
An interesting set of data I am seeing getting replicated again and again.
Once they start sampling the general population looking for telltale antigen markers of codvid19 (recovered and infected but showed no symptoms)
The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of codvid19 is around 0.1% – 0.24%. Another Italian study had it at 0.1%-0.34%. (The flu btw is around 0.1%)
So double the fatality of flu seems to be where its heading.
And this is before the widespread use of the fast becoming protocol to treating codvid19 But with the hydroxychloroquine, zinc & azy(something) the rates should drop even further.
All this is excellent news.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2014/06/12/more-than-10000-suicides-tied-to-economic-crisis-study-says/#4f2712317ae2
You can and society does all the time.
This is a good episode of planet money on just that, and the history of why it’s one number and not an adjusted one by age.
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/15/835571843/episode-991-lives-vs-the-economy
According to the information I see, there was no apparent change in the suicide trend in the US in 2008-9.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States
On the topic of Carlito’s Way and other non-essential health practitioners having to pay rent to clinics that they do business with in a independent contractor / service provider capacity, I would encourage them to review their contracts with a lawyer. As many clinics in the region closed before any order by the government or regulatory colleges, there is a good chance that when the clinic closed they committed a material breach of the contract. In many of these types of contracts there is language that allows either party to terminate the contract with no notice thereby relieving the practitioner of any rent obligation going forward and in cases where rent is paid in advance by the practitioner, the clinic can be liable for the over payment as well.
Sure, I didn’t suggest that there was a clear policy response to this that would have no ill effects. But to answer your question, I know a few and have a few relations that fit this very description, and if it’s a choice between temporarily losing physical contact with the elderly parents until further notice (perhaps until an antibody + active infection test can be taken to prove that you have had it and are no longer infectious or never had it all) and losing the job(s) and home, along with the grim employment outlook of not being able to find another job anytime soon, to me the answer is clear in most cases. Skype daily – which I and many others who are obeying the social distancing rules do anyway. With that said, I don’t want to get into sweeping generalizations because this is not based in reality as it stands, but my comment was to clarify the state of mind for people in the above situation being more than just an “inconvenience.” Seems pretty insulting to the families in the above situation to call it that.
The current state of affairs, while warranted, is going to have far longer effects than the illness itself for most, and that includes the elderly. That seems to me a fact given the current data. A valid comment I see lately is that you cannot put a price tag on a human life, which I totally agree with. But if an unprecedented economic depression results from an extended lockdown, you are going to have many deaths as a consequence as well. It was estimated that the GFC in the US caused around 10,000 economic suicides alone. Especially in poorer countries – you will literally have death from starvation, among other causes. And then it just cruelly becomes a numbers game, no? Which choice leads to less deaths? No easy answers, but I hope people can see the cost to both sides of the equation with a little more consideration.
Sure not “just because”, but face it there are a lot of under the radar landlords out there. IMHO the real payoff for CRA is not going to be on rental income, which for many landlords would be small or even negative, but on identifying properties subject to capital gains taxation.
As long as there is one remaining infected person on the Island they can infect everyone else.
Just because the suite is illegal does not mean the landlord is not declaring he rental income on their tax return. The CRA does not determine if a suite is legal.
Poultry processing plants and meat processing plants are reporting their workers are coming down with the COVID-19 virus and they are getting very sick, some are dying. The preliminary guess is that the spike in infections among poultry processing plant workers is because they stand close to each other on the production line.
My guess is the authorities at WHO, CDC, and other COVID researchers are in a panic trying to determine if there is a more insidious link. Let’s not forget the Spanish Flu started off in a very similar way to COVID-19, then seemed to go away, but then returned a few months later as a mutated super flu, with death often occurring within 12 hours of the first symptoms.
The mutated deadly Spanish Flu was an avian variant virus.
B.C. preparing to ease some COVID-19 restrictions in May
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid19-restrictions-bc-1.5535716
I’d like you to repeat after me:
“I don’t have enough properly vetted information to form an accurate opinion. I am guessing based on my wants, needs, and limited perception.”
There. That wasn’t so hard how was it?
Good question. Now how many young parents with kids and a mortgage and elderly parents will risk giving them this illness over losing their job?
There are no easy answers here, but our provincial leaders are well aware of the very real costs of the economic shutdown. They are trying to find the balance that is best for health and economic well-being overall.
Believe it or not there is a very large, very sensible middle ground between instantaneous cold turkey cutoff of all fossil fuel use and business as usual full speed ahead massive subsidies for the continued use and extraction of fossil fuels.
It is delusional to think that we can carry on and burn or process the Earth’s entire endowment of fossil fuels without serious consequences. It is equally delusional to believe that we can flip a switch tomorrow and stop the use of all fossil fuels. Intelligent people can and do disagree over how quickly fossil fuel use has to shrink to near zero. Even in a climate friendly future we will likely still use some fossil fuels, not to burn but as feedstocks for the chemical industry
Without better data it would be foolish to take any course of action less severe that what we are currently doing, but anyone thinking that a person faced with losing their job over this when they have 3 kids and a mortgage that they can no longer pay as an “inconvenience” needs a large dose of reality. How many young parents with kids and a mortgage do you think would take the risk of getting this illness over losing their job and home?
Headline: Rent subsidies given even if suite is illegal.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/illegal-suites-bc-housing-temporary-rental-supplement
Perhaps good for some landlords as they get paid the rent, but could give the income tax department more leads for rental income not reported for tax purposes but taking this list and seeing who is the landlord.
Such an incursion on civil liberties without invocation of the Emergencies Act wouldn’t hold up in court, not least because of its arbitrary application to Vancouver Island.
I’ve read that a Saudi airline is making every passenger pass a quick blood test for the virus, before allowing boarding, which makes me brainstorm.. we should use our geographical features to our advantage
Make that test mandatory for anybody coming onto Vancouver Island, by law, and at their expense, whether they’re coming by air or water. As part of that, they must give contact details and their planned whereabouts, and self-quarantine until the test result is in. Even if the test takes a couple of days before results, we can track the person down before they’ve left quarantine.
Meanwhile, the rest of Fortress Vancouver Island is allowed to resume mostly normal life. Yes it would be a hassle and extra expense for anybody coming onto the island, but that would pale in comparison to the benefit of allowing most of normal Vancouver island life and economy going again. If this approach doesnt work, go back to what we’re doing now.
Bonus: the enforcement/process creates jobs for people who no longer have jobs to go back to
Bonus 2: tourists are welcome, if they agree to strictly remain in quarantine until test result comes back. Hotel staff can get creative about catering to them while they wait in quarantine.
Hopefully the test turnaround time speeds up as we go, lessening the inconvenience
I think you are missing the point that spikes will not be harmless to the economy, or to younger people who will require hospitalization and may have lasting effects from covid even if they do not die from it. Hospitalization rates for covid have been significantly higher than for recent outbreaks of influenza. Close to 40% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the U.S. are aged 20 to 54.
A spike would also not be harmless to hospital staff, to other patients who will have treatment deferred, or to those in general who get covid during the spike as the case fatality rate rises during this period due to changes in available medical care.
Sending out people who are considered lower risk to run the economy while isolating those who may be higher risk sounds good in theory, but many people live with family members who are older or have health issues. We can see in Victoria that other vulnerable people are homeless. What would be required to move the economically unstable vulnerable to isolation safely for long periods of time? Are we able to do this?
Apart from age (15.6 percent of Canadians are over 65), the most common comorbidities with covid hospitalizations were:
hypertension, in 49.7 percent of patients – 17.7% of Canadians aged 12 and older (5.3 million people) reported being diagnosed with high blood pressure
followed by obesity – 26.7% of adult Canadians are obese
chronic metabolic disease (like diabetes) – 12.1% of adult Canadians have diabetes
chronic lung disease (like asthma) – 9.5% of adult Canadians have asthma
and cardiovascular disease – 6% of adult Canadians have this
That is a lot of people you are going to have to move into isolation so as not to be “inconvenienced”.
Well the sales numbers in April will be terrible, but if they relax some restrictions in May then I don’t see any practical impediments to sales (as in, no reason for the actual sales process with showings, inspections, appraisals, etc not to proceed almost as normal).
Then it comes down to the stimulative effect of lower interest rates set against the degrading effect of higher unemployment + potentially additional investor supply.
Sales have bottomed
Yep. For some reason the statscan series by CMA only go back to 2001. Here is BC though.
You cannot neatly identify such persons, nor can you neatly separate them from everyone else.
“No one. Textbook strawman.”
Then why all the media attention? Pure interest? No – most people think they will die if they get this because that is what the news is telling them. In fact most of my friends think this way. It is infuriating.
“the potential for a huge spike in cases, far beyond the flu, remains.”
Given that data is starting to support that this virus is mostly harmless, spikes will be harmless to most people. Spikes of harmless infections don’t matter. The spikes that do matter are those that happen in populations of people that will impact the hospital system / kill which are primarily older and or already sick (according to the CDC anyway) Those potential cases are the ones that need to be controlled for. The public policy required to protect the old and vulnerable is massively different than that required to protect everyone I.e. having low mortality/ hospitalization for most groups means most of us don’t need to do anything – if everyone circulating in society is in a low risk group, hospitalizations will be minimal. Lock downs going forward would justifiably cover only those who have a probability of ending up in the hospital. Locking down everyone else would have no effect on the hospital system (because if everyone that is likely to end up there is out of the circulating pool of humans ASAP after new cases appear, the body count can be stopped in its tracks. )
Or are you suggesting everyone should be equally inconvenienced for the benefit of the old and sick? I am not.
Don’t we have vaccine for flu each year? You can only compare Covid to flu on an equal footing: i.e. when there is Covid vaccine available to public (remember we all lined up in Oct/Nov 2010 to get flu shot for 2nd wave of H1N1?). Before that, there is no point to compare. And what would happened if there is a 2nd wave of Covid that is more deadly than the 1st one before vaccine comes? As no one knows at this point, I’d rather be safe than sorry.
“So what is it – I suggested that this data supports that the death rates are similar for both viruses, you implied it wasn’t. So is it, or not?”
Well that’s a good question. The problem is that the .1% seasonal flu death rate is an estimate of the number symptomatic cases that are fatal. In other words, something other than the infection fatality rate which is what you’re getting at. FYI, the WHO reported the infection fatality rate of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic to be 0.02%. So that is perhaps a better comparison.
No one. Textbook strawman.
I’m not sure who ever thought we’d all die? The stats never showed that even at higher rates of estimated mortality. They did show a high number of avoidable deaths if transmission rates spiked and hospitals lost capacity. They also showed that many vulnerable people, not just the elderly, were at risk of death or severe illness and some healthy people too.
I don’t think new data supports the idea that we can all go about with business as usual with just a little bit of extra hand washing and space in the malls for the vulnerable. How could that be when the transmission rate remains super high while the community infection rate is super low? You are going to get a spike.
In addition, this is one non-peer reviewed study and participants were not randomly selected – they volunteered. There are already questions about motivation for volunteers who may have been motivated by having symptoms and not being able to get tested otherwise. But, in any event, I guess we will know at some point in the future for sure and even if the mortality rate for a controlled infection is much lower than thought, the potential for a huge spike in cases, far beyond the flu, remains.
Covid-19 is just like the flu.
The Spanish flu.
BC’s largest exports are still Lumber and Coal.
Real Estate hahaha. Barrel of Oil in Alberta is less than a starbucks cup of coffee. What’s the real estate equivalent?
@ Totoro – I agree – my post from a couple days ago basically says exactly what you said. Hospital capacity was always the priority but the hysteria in society and the 100% lock downs don’t originate from older and sick people overloading up the hospital system – this happens to a certain degree every year during flu season. The lockdowns originate from models showing a collapse of all hospital systems and mass death across the board – the fear that we all can die.
Now data exists that supports people going most people going about their daily lives as they had before, perhaps with a little extra hand washing and space in the malls for those who could end up in hospital and that for me is pervasively comforting.
Even if the mortality rate of covid is lower than estimated transmission and hospitalization rates seem extremely high (much higher than the flu), and you can have severe symptoms and potentially permanent health impacts. In addition, with many people being silent spreaders and having a long incubation phase with no vaccine or natural immunity, transmission is hard to manage without physical distancing.
You can’t just reopen an economy when you have a highly contagious disease circulating with no vaccine without having testing and controls in place. This is, as we’ve seen in other places, because you will get a sharp spike in infections which will overwhelm our healthcare system will result in an increase the mortality rate and the huge numbers of infected will result in many more deaths.
I’d follow Dr. Henry’s advice on this and see how we can gradually reopen the economy while flattening the curve until there is a vaccine. I don’t see that a reduced fatality rate impacts this as the best option.
https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1251232399746359302
“So why aren’t Italy, New York, etc, etc hospitals decimated/overrun by the flu every year?”
Evidence is beginning to support that COVID spreads much faster than originally thought. Flu Ro is about 1-1.5. COVID initially thought to be 2.5, now may be as high as 6. If the flu could spread as quickly, the same capacity issues in hospitals would occur but the death rate would be similar because the virus is showing to be roughly as dangerous (ignoring the organ damage reports that Totoro brought up – point taken), based on this data.
“Obviously the IFR is going to be much lower.” So what is it – I suggested that this data supports that the death rates are similar for both viruses, you implied it wasn’t. So is it, or not? Keep in mind, this isn’t the first statistical attempt at collecting test data that shows mortality in the same neigborhood as the flu- there was an italian one as well.
It has to a large extent. Visit the Interior and Tumbler Ridge. The counterpart to Alberta O&G in BC is now – Real Estate!
Visit Oshawa. Or other cities where plants are still operating, but with much less employment.
Apart from the fringes, the real debate over oil is whether Alberta should get off the oil sands. As we’ve seen, there are much lower cost producers who can render bitumen product worthless.
“He was also recently interviewed by FOX news.”
lol Tucker Carlson. That’s one way to instantly lose credibility.
“Don’t write off what is probably the most pervasively positive, non biased data based announcement since the beginning of this whole thing that supports that this virus spreads fast but is no more dangerous than the Flu on average if you get it and go back to the absolute horseshit that is being spewed by Trudeau et al on a daily basis.”
Who’s the one spewing horseshit? As pointed out before, you are comparing the infection fatality rate of Covid-19 to the case fatality rate of the flu. Obviously the IFR is going to be much lower.
Nan said:
“Seroprevalence report from SantaClara indicates CFR between 0.07% and 0.14% based on representative sampling. CFR of the Flu = 0.1%.”
Not sure I correctly understansd what seroprevalence and CFR are exactly (in my defense, this is a housing blog, so talk slow 🙂 )
While comparisons are being made between flu and covid-19, why aren’t Italy, New York, etc, etc hospitals decimated/overrun by the flu every year?
Selling price $867,500. Another seller who got out just before the boom fell. I wonder what the student rental market will be like next year, with a likely collapse in foreign students? Assuming UBC is operating in the first place.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-virtual-viewing-helps-in-sale-of-ubc-condo/
I wonder how/if the good news today will impact house prices/sales.
Apologies to all the hypochondriacs out there but @ Leo and Dad – for the benefit of everyone, please correct my possibly overly positive lack of analysis in the context of your observations. Don’t write off what is probably the most pervasively positive, non biased data based announcement since the beginning of this whole thing that supports that this virus spreads fast but is no more dangerous than the Flu on average if you get it and go back to the absolute horseshit that is being spewed by Trudeau et al on a daily basis.
Hospital capacity still an issue because it spreads faster (Ro probably higher than initially thought) but virus not more likely to kill you or even send you to the hospital if you get it.
Hospital capacity issues in Italy, NYC et al likely a function of contagiousness and population density. Massive go forward policy implications of this.
A Stanford Medical Professor, Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, who is studying the mortality rate from COVID-19 was originally quite worried about the mortality rate based of the WHO estimated rate of 3.4%. However, now with more data available he thinks the mortality rate is close to the annual flu. He says the death rate estimates were apparently “orders of magnitude “ too high.
Here is an article and video from Stanford:
https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/questioning-conventional-wisdom-covid-19-crisis-dr-jay-bhattacharya
He was also recently interviewed by FOX news.
https://youtu.be/6NjCitwKJSQ
They’ve already had a proposal to do this (Energy East), and Irving (Canada’s largest refinery) was part of the proposal.
You already had a pipeline company and the refiner on board with no money from the Federal Govt. Quebec just got in the way.
Fact is that Canada is still a major export country, saying Alberta should get off of O&G is like BC should get off Lumber&Coal, and Ontario should get off car manufacturing, and Quebec should get off Dairy, Lumber and Airplane manufacturing. None of those are clean industries.
And one point I’m always trying to drive home is that how long it has left is as much a political question as it is an economic one.
Our politicians can make choices. Billions in subsidies to O&G, year after year, is a choice. The price we set on carbon is a choice. The value of incentives for EV purchases is a choice. How many public EV charging stations get built is a choice. The number of years carmakers have left before they’re legally prohibited from manufacturing gas vehicles is a choice.
Thanks you’re right. I used the terms incorrectly as well.
“This is not correct. You are comparing CFR as measured by seroprevalence (I.e presence of antibodies) for COVID compared to CFR for flu based on symptomatic cases only.”
I think she is comparing something akin to the infection fatality rate of Covid-19 to the case fatality rate of the seasonal flu. In any case, apples to oranges. What has or is happening in Wuhan, Italy, Spain, New York, etc. does not jive with “this is no worse than the seasonal flu.” It is clearly worse. People are confused by the difference between IFR and CFR I think.
Trudeau announces aid for struggling energy sector, including $1.7B to clean up orphan wells
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/financial-aid-covid19-trudeau-1.5535629
I support this move by Trudeau, but never forget that orphan wells wouldn’t be an issue had the Alberta government collected adequate upfront bonds from these companies.
And when supporters talk up how environmentally responsible Canada’s energy sector is, remember that, according to Alberta’s own numbers, the cost to clean up the tar sands, and all the smaller messes across the province, is between $60 billion and $260 billion.
This is the biggest missed opportunity that Trudeau has. Down in Eastern Canada they are bringing in tankers from Saudi Arabia and oil out of the NE of the US. The reason for this is because the refineries in that area are geared for the lighter oils. A pipeline from Alberta of heavy crude won’t do much good for them.
What should happen is the Feds get behind a large infrastructure project to upgrade those refineries to handle what Alberta can provide. We then build a pipeline from Alberta to those refineries and become self sufficient. Quebec would likely bitch and moan about the pipelines, let them. Obviously this will be a large cost, but it can be quite easily politically justified as strengthening confederation, adding to Canadian jobs and improving national security. Then after this a second, longer term Manhattan like project needs to be started for Alberta and any other province heavily dependent on O&G to diversify. Everyone knows O&G is a dying industry, all we’re arguing about is how long it has left to live and in the meantime the future prospects for those provinces gets dimmer and dimmer.
This is not correct. You are comparing CFR as measured by seroprevalence (I.e presence of antibodies) for COVID compared to CFR for flu based on symptomatic cases only.
Apples to oranges. There is zero question that CFR for Covid is worse than flu. Of course not anywhere near the 10% we are seeing in some regions based on just confirmed cases.
Hi All – here’s one more reason to stop worrying –
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1251163873039626244
Seroprevalence report from SantaClara indicates CFR between 0.07% and 0.14% based on representative sampling. CFR of the Flu = 0.1%.
Yay testing!
The world still uses coal for electricity now. What would they have transitioned to using for actual production of electricity?
There were lots of electric automobiles in the early 1900s. Just got beat out by gas cars.
https://twitter.com/GregorCraigie/status/1251219633803313155
Don’t agree. We would have transitioned directly from coal to electricity and the technologies for generating the latter would be been developed at a more rapid rate, out of necessity.
No doubt the age of the automobile as we know it would not have happened, but I don’t consider that a great loss.
Kids potentially back at school but perhaps staggered hours or hybrid online/in school learning to reduce social contacts
Hybrid model for businesses as well with fewer people in the office.
Remaining social distancing in stores as today
Relaxing some travel restrictions domestically.
That is encouraging. I wonder what 60% of normal looks like? What would open? What would remain closed?
This looks very promising from today’s modelling
Could lift restrictions to 60% of normal while keeping the curve flat
Without oil, we’d be at about the mid 1850’s in terms of our present day amenities/capabilities. I think we should invest heavily in energy innovation including finding ways to reduce dependency on, and the pollution inherent to, oil and gas. I think nuclear energy is the future, especially fusion if they can ever get it to scale up to usability. But like it or not, the archaic forms of energy including fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere, any time soon.
Those eco Europeans are secretly buying and using oil & gas everyday while spouting theirs virtue. Luckily the majority of the EU governing bodies are enlighten enought to keep on buying oil & gas for their citizens to consume.
People that have theirs head in the cloud have no idea what life is like with out oil and gas that why their ignorance lead them astray.
I’ve live through and seen what life is like with out oil & gas, and I don’t work direct or indirect in the oil & gas sector.
An example, South Vietnam lost the war because it didn’t have fuel to operate equipments and factories. Starvation, disease, lack of basic sanitation, clean water, transportation, medical means, weekly rolling blackouts that lasts for days, and jobless was the norm after April 30th 1975 till 1993 in Saigon eventhose not a single shot was fired during the unification, because lack of oil & gas. And, thanks to the politcal reformed and access to oil & gas VN is rising out of poverty since the normalized relation with the West in 1993 and have access to trades and oil & gas.
There’s no one stopping you or anyone who want to live a life without oil & gas/modern means. So go ahead and live off grid or move to Africa instead preaching without action.
And, on the contray, oil & gas not only improve people health, lifespan, but also the environment that we live in. It also improve the lives of people that we sells our oil to.
There’s private annoyance and there’s public annoyance, and the latter is sometimes cover for the former.
Realtor in question has been a realtor for 22 years.
Don’t think you get to that point without referrals.
Doubt this is just to drum up business.
Unclear to me if they are annoyed at the message of potential falling prices or of using the pandemic to try to drum up business which is a bad look. I would guess it’s more the latter.
I am all about everything going electric but as long as we still need oil and gas would prefer production in house for national security….not sure if wise to depend on Saudis, Russians and the US.
It is inevitable
https://twitter.com/drandrewk1/status/1250541347297165318?s=21
The EU countries with great governance that you admire are full of the “eco people” you despise
Better living through pollution?
Most of the EU, Japan, and South Korea have great political governance that allow them to secures (buys) energy. While oil & gas rich countries such as some of the African countries, Saudi, and Russia have poor political governance doesn’t fare well. And, countries that have good political governance with developed oil & gas become great wealthy nations (Canada could become wealthier and healthier country if the eco people let the market and political system improve our way of life.)
Your map has plenty of countries in red (mostly in Europe, also Japan) that produce no oil at all. Conversely it has some major oil producers in Africa (i.e. Nigeria, Angola) coloured brown, and oil heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia only get pink.
Maybe it’s really not about whether a country produces oil?
They are eligible for the same income assistance as anyone else (EI, CERB). If a mortgage free condo owner can’t meet the strata fees – which are just another form of the upkeep expenses that all owners need to pay – they’ve been living on the edge all along IMHO.
World energy consumption
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2017
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2017/09/15/oil-natural-gas-as-energies-today-and-tomorrow
Renewable energy will be a substantial portion of world consumption in the future, but a large amount of it will be biomass.
Talk about misguided hatred.
Please start walking on broken dirt roads, grow your own food, swim/row your boat to Vancouver, say good bye to air travel, buys larger quantities of American and Saudis oil to make everyday products and medicines, and it takes much larger amount of their light/sweet oil to make asphalt/diesel/jet fuel than Canadian heavy oil.
Canadian oil are use for making asphalt (road pavements, shingles), diesel fuel (shipping and trucking), jet fuel, medicine, plastic, and gasoline among many other chemicals.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/could-trade-help-achieve-energy-security/
You are lucky to be living in a top 10 energy rich country such as Canada, because with out energy access and security you and the rest of the misguided eco people would be living in poverty like people in Africa.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/africa-s-energy-poverty-is-keeping-its-people-poor
Canada Unemployment Rate1966-2020 Data – https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/
Canada debt to GDP isn’t in a bad situation as some of the G20 countries such as US, Japan, Italy, and Spain. And, our unemployment rate is nowhere near the 80s and 90s rate nor dire unemployment rate of Spain, Turkey, or Brazil.
Unemployment in Victoria back to the 90’s was a very different picture. It would be nice to expand that graph beyond the glory days.
FYI – latest news (probably is not the final one and still far from body counts at funeral homes there):
Wuhan (China), the epicenter of the pandemic, today (date there is April 17th) reported 1,290 additional deaths that had not been previously counted and reported, bringing the total number of deaths in Wuhan from 2,579 to 3,869, an increase of 50%, as the result of a revision by the Wuhan New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control.
I’ve stayed at AirBnBs in at least 15 countries and had nothing but great experiences…..while I would never run an AirBnB myself not sure I want to pay $500/night for a hotel room downtown Vancouver.
Also, people running AirBnB are not getting rich by any means. I’ve run the numbers so many times and it is a dumb business people run because they don’t factor in their own time investment.
And that is why I love Tesla….everything is online from order to signing the documents. No need to deal with a salesperson at any point in the process. Unfortunately, I still think the average consumer is too dumb to educate themselves via YouTube/Reddit/forums, etc., and actually still wants to visit the dealership and to sip coffee while the manager takes 15 minutes to present a quote that is available on the manufactures website.
Been following this blog for a while, some great stuff on here. Physio here, been closed for a month now, interesting times for RMTs, chiros, Physios, dentists, acupuncturists etc. Still have to pay rent for my clinic, and also where we live. No breaks from neither, which is a tricky situation when you have 3k+ in month in rental expenses…
Tricky…do I expect a break from our landlords? I rent a 2 bed half duplex for $1750 (crazy in my eyes but the only thing decent in the city)….
Hope we can reopen in some stage soon, once again, not an easy decision!
5173 Lochside Dr
MLS 421598
List price – $1,175,000
2020 Assessed – $1,082,000
2019 Assessed – $1,215,000
The write up “$40,000 Under Assessed Value! ” And thats already after a drop of $75k.
Nothing wrong with a little lie in this industry. I have to admit though, it sure does sound better than the truth “$93,000 Over Assessed Value!”
Schmucks. The whole industry. I hold used car salespeople in higher regard. (no offence Marko, you seem decent).
Edit: Last sold in 2017 for $1,140,000. Not a great investment over three years if they get list.
freedom_2008, the bonus thing gets a little sensitive when a significant amount of one’s compensation is in the form of bonuses. My friend I believe has 30% of his pay in the form of the annual bonus (bonuses are pretty much expected, if you get none then you should be looking for a new job, obviously covid-19 is an outlier). So him and his colleagues are a little choked that they bust their ass all year and will effectively get a 30% pay cut. This is a good lever for the firm as they can effectively cut compensation costs substantially without incurring severance pay.
Introvert,
Tenants up top are paying rent, the basement suite ones want the rent subsidy and indicated that for May’s rent they will be paying me the rent less the subsidy amounts for April and May. I don’t know how they are making out on the application yet as I haven’t received an email from BC housing, so potentially I could be short.
Everybody but you, dear Fool.
For you, it’s everybody. Don’t deny it. 🙂
Covid Dashboard for BC.
Vancouver Island currently has 7 hospitalized and 2 in ICU. Looks like 38 active cases.
Other notables.
Last time BC tested more than 2000 people was March 27th.
Vancouver Island seems to be testing around 200 people a day.
For me, it’s the oil and gas industry.
Ks112, are your tenants still coughing up the rent payment?
Interesting accounts, thanks. Never thought about dental hygienists – I guess that makes sense.
We’re both unaffected here. Plenty of stories abound though.
In one instance one of my favourite places to visit, the Butchart Gardens, has laid off staff. I don’t know how many but apparently the fellow I know got no, “this is temporary, we’ll have you back soon”, it was just bub-bye, see you later. He then almost immediately got a job at, of all places, a property management company. Then before he could start, he was laid off again. At least in this latest case he’s on their list to contact when business gets moving again.
I have no idea how many people here didn’t pay their rent this month simply because they couldn’t, but I’m thinking it’s a lot. As if people renting didn’t have enough strain already, not to mention the knock-on effect of non-payment that is hard to estimate now.
One group that I confess I’m delighted to see choking (and hopefully die) is AirBnB. IMHO that’s a blight that has at least had a role in encouraging housing commodification, irrational buying, unsustainable price escalation, diminished rental stock, as well as degradation of community and neighbourhoods. Good riddance to bad rubbish, as far as I’m concerned. I hope that “industry” is wiped out, never to appear again. Ain’t likely to happen, but a boy can dream.
I saw the tent city by Topaz the other day, or at least a portion of it. Shocking how big it was, and a damning indictment of the state of our mental health resources. At one point in time 20-30 years ago, these people had a place in institutions and other community living support networks. I get that some of those tools aren’t in vogue these days, but this seething mass of poverty, crime, disease and disillusionment is no alternative.
It is probably very relevant to Victoria (and Vancouver) as we have lots homeless too:
FYI: A recent round of coronavirus testing in Boston’s homeless population is raising concern about asymptomatic spread of the coronavirus. And it’s leading both advocates and public officials to call for comprehensive testing in the homeless community.
https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/15/boston-homeless-population-coronavirus-asymptomatic-universal-testing
I work for gov so I am fine but my wife is a dental hygienist and is out of work for who knows how long. All dental offices are pretty much out of commission except for emergency occasions.
Barrister said:
“There is a large house nearby that was divided into seven condos. At least three of the seven owners have lost their jobs.”
With all the discussion about help for renters and deferrals for mortgage holders, I hadn’t even considered until now owners that can’t pay monthly strata fees.
For condo/townhouse owners that have no mortgage, but who have suddenly lost their jobs, is there any help coming along the same lines as what the renters and mortgage holders are receiving?
What do strata councils do about a bunch of strata members being delinquent with payments all at once? It must also be frustrating for the more responsible strata members who have a solid rainy day fund, but whose fate is now partially tied to the strata members who don’t have a rainy day fund. I wonder if in some cases it could maybe even break into heated arguments, if the president and/or other members of the strata council are suffering job losses and want to pass/implement some strata fee workarounds that the rainy-day-savers aren’t in agreement with.
Adding to this, so many strata fees have gone up recently due to the ongoing strata insurance problems. Ugh, what a mess.
Keep dividend is good for investors and retirees (so they don’t have nor need help from governments).
I have had to put in a lot of extra hours over the last few weeks. We build payroll software. Busy working on incorporating all the new COVID-19 legislation, so that our customers can take advantage of all the government programs including paid sick leave (in the US) and other measures to keep employees on the payroll.
There is now a hiring freeze at our company. The company does expect sales to drop significantly this year. I would be surprised if there were any layoffs. I could potentially see the use of contractors being scaled back, however no indication if that might be needed at this point.
Local Fool, My firm had an announcement that bonuses will be reduced. At my firm, bonuses could count from anywhere between 30% to 2/3 of total compensation. Also heard from a friend at one of the banks there that there could be no bonuses this year as management wants to keep the dividend intact.
From the Financial post today.
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/canadian-real-estate-great-reckoning-covid-19
There is a large house nearby that was divided into seven condos. At least three of the seven owners have lost their jobs. There are real people in dire straits.
I suspect that there are a lot of lights burning late at night in Toronto while the risk assessment people at the banks are trying to develop strategies. Everybody is aware of how bad this could turn out .
I just went into TD for a renewal today. They gave me prime -.17 works out to 2.43% on a 5 year variable. The fixed rates they offered me were all above 3%.
I went into a vacant office and they had the paper on desk ready for me to sign. The TD rep called me on the phone to go over the renewal contract. No questions asked about employment or income. It took less then 10 minutes.
I could of renewed online for prime -.07, so I chose to go into the branch for a bit better rate.
Has anyone here had their job affected, either outright or reduced hours etc? If no, are you worried that may become the case?
Rumors are that Covid virus was told to stay low and be quiet in Japan before the Olympics was postponed.
Businesses are going bankrupt and closing due to COVID and selling their equipment at auction for half the value. The marginally successful businesses will be the first to close.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6824882/business-booming-bc-auction-houses-covid-19/
Coronavirus lockdown: Lessons from Hokkaido’s second wave of infections
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055
Particularly if the mortgage is insured and the lender is guaranteed to get their principal back in any case. Mortgage insurance continues across renewals and doesn’t have to be reapplied for.
However MI does not continue across refinancing, e.g. starting a new 25 year amortization on the remaining balance to reduce payments. If you don’t have enough equity to go uninsured, you have to reapply for MI and pay for it again. I think this may be a sticking point for some people.
Likewise the lender has the right to demand MI be taken out to renew an uninsured mortgage if they think the equity has declined.
Umm Really said:”What is going to happen with mortgage renewals this spring and summer? …seeking a deferral, on EI, on CREB or has a delinquent tennant squatting in their basement suite?”.
I don’t see how the mortgage lender can know about any of those things, except the mortgage deferral.
Whenever I do a mortgage renewal it has been very quick and easy: I am emailed a renewal interest rate and monthly payment document, and i sign and take it. Renewal done. If I choose not to take that renewal offer, and go to another lender, that’s when the regular application process and scrutiny from a new lender would definitely restart, not to mention a possible charge for a professional property assessment.
But for people that have been paying their mortgage on time my impression has been that the mortgage lender doesn’t ask questions at renewal time. I suppose other mortgage lenders could be doing things differently, or things could be changing during the current crisis, but I haven’t heard that.
“shut off any HELOC options”
Yes I have heard about some banks are starting to shut down HELOC options for some customers. They’re smart to do that, they realize that some people that are out of funds and unemployed might just drain their HELOC before going into delinquency.
All in favour?
My life is already on with. Thanks for your concern.
Phase 2 is planned for early may.
See how phase 1 goes.
@Dad: yes, the true prevalence of Covid-19 is probably much higher in New York than advertised. Check out this NEJM article on pregnant patients presenting to the labour/delivery in New York. 15.4% of patients had COVID-19 on testing and of those 88% were asymptomatic! What is becoming clear is that many patients (probably >50% are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms). This is good news in that the mortality rate is likely much much lower than advertised, but bad news in that transmission could be happening via asymptomatic patients. We need to test test test!!!!
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316
What is going to happen with mortgage renewals this spring and summer? This should be the season where buyers from previous years are up for renewals. What is a lender going offer in terms if any at all to a borrower who seeking a deferral, on EI, on CREB or has a delinquent tennant squatting in their basement suite? or if the lender is uncertain of the value of the property will they want to lend the remainder or require additional money down or shut off any HELOC options? Can this become a factor in the housing market and push insolvencies?
Victoria sellers, can you truly trust that you are getting advice to “wait a while before selling” that is honest and has integrity, if Exhibit A right here shows you what happens when a realtor dares to give the public her professional opinion as an experienced realtor?
Ontario real estate agent is to be reprimanded by her real estate association, for her honesty and integrity :
“An advertisement from a London realtor, who warned people to sell fast to get top dollar before the coronavirus pandemic triggers “many home losses to the banks,” is disappointing, the head of Ontario’s Real Estate Association said.
But the agent who sent the letter to households in the Hamilton Road area doubled down on her comments, saying she merely was expressing a professional opinion and has since faced a barrage of threats from complete strangers.
Century 21 realtor Michelle Dier distributed a marketing letter in the Hamilton Road corridor titled “Why it’s important to sell now” outlining her 22 years of experience selling homes. She described her reputation as a realtor known for her honesty and integrity.
..
[Her letter stated ]If selling is on your mind, I recommend you take action now. Due to COVID-19, there will be many home losses to the banks and you want to get your home on the market fast to sell first and get the top price before the market becomes difficult. I look forward to hearing from you.”
…
Sean Morrison, who helms the Ontario Real Estate Association, said …“We have brought the matter to the attention of our regulator, the Real Estate Council of Ontario, for their review, as obviously we don’t condone that type of behaviour.”
…
Dier said she had the right to express her opinion, adding she was promoting her business just as lawyers and bankruptcy services are doing amid the pandemic.
…
“I’m sorry that fear is running high and people are wanting to shoot the messenger, which in this case happened to be me, but the comments and insults (I’ve received) were completely unwarranted. I don’t need to accept ridicule from the public or anyone else.”
She’s received a slew of nasty comments online, including threats to herself and her family, Dier said.”
Stay classy, Ontario real estate association.
So let’s get this straight. Realtors are a service most people buying/selling property have little choice but to go through and allow to take a “cut” of the overall transaction. Then, when one realtor has the honesty and integrity to warn sellers of what she thinks might be coming, instead of her overseers saying “it’s a free country, everybody is entitled to their opinion” they refer her to the “big bosses” for a reprimand, while the death threats start flying.
How is this not like a Real Estate Mafia?
PS – Despite opponent attempts to deflect the issue, she never said anything about in-person showings, nor does she ever reject the mandate to conduct business by video.
PPS – Say what you will, but non-owners have had to patiently live through decades of MSM-blared biased messages like “Better get in now before it’s too late!”, and the perpetually broken-record cheerleading headlines like “Real Estate Association forecasts show rising prices coming”(which end up being wrong at least as often as they end up being right)
What the hell is wrong with the opposite message going out, when a realtor thinks it is warranted?
https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/realtor-faces-professional-community-backlash-for-incendiary-letter-warning-of-bank-foreclosures/amp?
Not close and not even moving in that direction.
The government talks big about closing the borders, but refugees, landed immigrants and people with dual-citizenship are coming and going as they please. No screening for symptoms on arrival for anyone.
National Bank Financial says among advanced economies, Canada is on track to have the worst fiscal deterioration due to virus-fueled crisis. Without a rebound once pandemic passes, Canada’s triple-A could be at risk, according to National Bank Financial. https://twitter.com/paulvieira/status/1250530838409863169
Nan and others: I am most definitely in the most vulnerable category but I agree that we cannot stay closed down forever.
While we have to restart the economy I think we need to be cautious and also focus on protecting the most vulnerable. I am sure that many of you might have already considered that we have been too successful in our social distancing measures. The idea was to spread the hospitalization over three or four months rather than have all of them flood the hospital system in one month. Our numbers in BC, compared to other jurisdictions are really low and we have the potential to swamp the hospitals in one month still.On a positive note it has bought us more time to get prepared but delaying the flood rather than flattening the curve is a very different matter. Hopefully they can manage to still flatten the curve as we get hit on reopening.
(For those who are curious, my plan is to stay in self isolation probably for the rest of my life; that does come with challenges to say the least. Good thing that my wife and I actually like each other.)
Before people celebrate the reopening of the economy it appears obvious to me that both Victoria and Canada are going to take a real hit. The good news for Victoria is the number of government jobs which at least create a foundation for the city. The bad news is that I cannot see tourism springing back any time soon.
Mixed News from Europe:
Clear to you?
The process of opening up will not be smooth at all. It will be filled with fits and starts and backtracking as we are already seeing in countries attempting it.
“I get that you like the lower number better.”
And I get that you are probably scared of this thing. Maybe you should be, but only if you are over 65 and already sick, in which case you should probably stay home and wash your hands more. Otherwise, I’d try to focus on getting on with your life because it’s coming. Italy started opening up phase 1 today, phase 2 early may.
“One didn’t kill anyone until a little over a month ago (March 8th), and the other has been killing people all year long”
And on an annual basis, I expect car fatalities will outstrip COVID – we are flat now, maybe on the decline for COVID, I fully expect high levels of “catch up” partying, drinking and other mayhem when things return to normal. Either way it doesn’t matter – I didn’t need to use cars, it was just a convenient analogue because the risks are in the same ballpark and most people are comfortable driving but increasingly irrationally, think COVID is 100% going to kill them.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6787493/coronavirus-canadians-fear-poll/
Everyone wants to reopen the economy as soon as possible. It is about what it would take to do that in a manner which doesn’t cause the economy to shut down again immediately to contain more covid outbreaks – Singapore appears to be in the midst of a new outbreak now.
Comparing covid to the flu or car crash mortality rates is premature in terms of drawing comparisons – and yes, even if you use ex. Singapore: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like
Plus dying is not the only risk. There are reports of all sorts of potential long-term damage to lung, heart and liver and the virus may affect T-cells in a similar manner to AIDS. We just don’t know enough about the long term because it hasn’t been around long enough. The shut down is to save lives and stop overwhelm in hospitals, but it also gives time for the development of more effective treatments.
The WHO has issued guidelines on re-opening:
Is transmission of the virus under control?
The test is not your hospitalization rate based on more strict social distancing, but whether you are doing enough testing and contact tracing to know who is infected and quarantining them immediately. Canada is clearly not at this stage or anywhere close.
Is the health-care system equipped to detect, test, isolate and treat every case, and trace every person who came into contact with a positive case.
Not in Canada.
Are outbreaks minimized in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes?
No.
Are there measures in workplaces and schools to prevent the spread of the virus?
No. I don’t think a lot of employers have even considered this yet and certainly our health authority has not issued guidance. How will hair dressers manage the risk, for example? Will they need PPE? Will they only give haircuts to young healthy people?
Are the risks of importing more cases from outside the country being managed?
Here we are now doing pretty good!
Not really.
One didn’t kill anyone until a little over a month ago (March 8th), and the other has been killing people all year long.
One has the potential to overwhelm hospitals and kill hospital workers.
The other does not.
Grant said:”We simply were not prepared ”
You could say, hindsight is so 2020.
Or
2020: the year the world was blind-sided
“Canada hasn’t even with almost double the number of people as New York State. Still seems woefully inadequate yes. BC @ 1/4 the size though has done 1/10th of the testing, so if they’re badly under-testing, what are we doing?”
So NY is testing a lot, but 2 in 5 are coming back positive. In BC, it’s closer to 1 in 40.We are testing fewer people but our outbreak is a tiny fraction of the size of the outbreak in NY. If our numbers start to go up, we would need to scale up testing to better capture this. That’s my understanding anyway.
I guess you could say that the true infection rate in BC is probably higher than the case count, but in NY, it’s many, many times higher than the case count.
I get that you like the lower number better.
Neither is likely accurate, especially since you’re quoting numbers from countries that haven’t been overwhelmed.
It doesn’t matter what the death rate for COVID-19 is if it completely fills up your hospital to beyond capacity, more people will die who wouldn’t normally if the hospital is full, overwhelmed and has many nurses/doctors off sick.
Pardon my French, but in regards to COVID-19 we’re basically f**ked no matter what. The economic shutdown won’t be able to go on much longer without having incredibly bad impacts for a large percentage of the population. I have a friend whose business may not survive a much longer downturn and it’s been his life and passion. He’s gone from a gentle, giving and happy guy to very depressed and worried how he’ll support his family. And on the other hand, re-opening is just going to set off new waves, albeit hopefully smaller and more managed. But it’s not just the deaths, it’s the potentially very long lasting side effects – to lungs, and possibly to other organs as well. We simply were not prepared and there are no good solutions, just shitty ones. Pick your poison.
In other lighter news, I really need a haircut; my daughter grinned and said she’d do it. Oh boy.
No idea if that’s true or not.
They’ve been successful with Rinderpest and Smallpox. If people would get vaccinated we’d have a bunch more that were eliminated as well (like Polio). Smallpox is similar to Covid-19 in that it’s highly contagious and it’s transmission vector is primarily through droplets by people within 2 meters of each other, we just don’t know if a) we can develop a vaccine for it or b) it’ll provide lasting immunity. Same can be said about actually contracting it, and whether those antibodies will actually provide any immunity.
The analogy is sound, is it not? I would just equate the careful driver with the younger, healthy person and the reckless driver with the older and/or unhealthy person.
“No they are not because the great majority of fatalities among drivers are from reckless or impaired driving. You should be looking at the fatality rate where the driver was acting properly. You don’t catch reckless driving from a virus.”
The great majority of fatalities among COVID sufferers are from being old or already being sick. You should look at the fatality rate where the person was young and not sick…
If you’re a 16 year old male driver, your probability of dying in a car crash is certainly greater than dying COVID. If you are a 70 year old diabetic that likes walks in public spaces, the opposite is true. In aggregate actions lead to outcomes. Different actions, different outcomes but in aggregate, the fact is that same number of British Colombians have died from auto accidents as from COVID this year.
Except my point is this – there are far too many controls for COVID that do not lower either the hospitalization or death rates. We don’t make people drive 10kph on the highway either you know because…data.
No they are not because the great majority of fatalities among drivers are from reckless or impaired driving. You should be looking at the fatality rate where the driver was acting properly. You don’t catch reckless driving from a virus.
“I’m fully on board so long as you sign off on dying @ home instead of endangering hospital workers lives. Reason why death rate from car crashes is about the same is because we’ve taken measures”
First, it is horrifyingly unfortunate that hospital workers aren’t being provided with appropriate PPC but like I said, I do not believe we can get rid of a virus – we have to learn how to co exist with it (like all the others). Dealing with COVID will be part of those jobs going forward, forever.
Second, I’d rather not focus on car crashes versus COVID out of context – the fact of the matter is that the measures had an impact and net of those measures, COVID and driving are equally risky today in BC. Cars used to be much more dangerous but now we have things like seat belts, speed limits, air bags, speeding tickets, crash testing & engineering, old and blind people can’t drive etc. A nuanced approach based on data instead of a “no one can drive because people die!” approach
Corollary to this, I would argue that while absent better information the measures taken were necessary because the risk was asymmetric. For example – if you see a rock and think it could be a bear there is risk asymmetry there – if you think it’s a bear and address that you will probably suffer a lower cost than if you think it’s a rock and it ends up being a bear. However, we are beginning to see that it is not a bear, and that being said, most if not all of those benefits we accrued by taking the measures we took (lower hospitalizations and deaths) can be maintained going forward with a much more nuanced approach. It is becoming increasingly clear that there are large swaths of society that won’t struggle with this and that getting them to work while balancing their safety is not only possible but should be of the utmost priority at the moment because the future body count from these lock down measures is piling up.
Keep in mind that pretty much any patient in a hospital will be more susceptible to covid. Your cancer patients, anyone who has picked up a secondary infection, etc. That means a hospital environment can go from underutilized to a royal mess within the space of a month or two (or less). We’ve seen what happens in places with overcrowded hospitals – and the death rate is much higher than some of the numbers thrown around below.
I get where you’re coming from….but I think a lot of ‘healthy’ folks may be at risk if the return to economic activity isn’t ‘finessed’.
I also agree with that this virus is not going away – all we’re currently doing is delaying future infections. I think the idea of opening up schools will just start the second wave of infections…
Only 20 million people live in New York State. There are very few countries that are doing as many tests as New York State (UAE is doing amazing). There are 7 that have done over 1/2 a million tests. Canada hasn’t even with almost double the number of people as New York State. Still seems woefully inadequate yes. BC @ 1/4 the size though has done 1/10th of the testing, so if they’re badly under-testing, what are we doing?
@ James Soper – With 100% certainty, that data calculates something but it doesn’t include co-morbidity factors or more importantly, include unreported cases. i.e. it gives you a giant and scary number without any context (also a problem with the current media cycle).
Iceland and Singapore have either had COVID long enough or actually tested enough people to produce more accurate calculations for these rates and they are between 0.2 and 0.5% for everyone and much lower than that for younger and healthy individuals. The flu is 0.1 so COVID is maybe 2-5x more likely to kill you based on what I feel is the best data we have at the moment. You simply can’t say “100 sick people came to my hospital and they all tested positive for COVID and 20 died so the death rate is 20% for the entire population any more than you can say that 100 car crash victims came to the hospital and 20 died so the death rate for car trips is 20% because the denominator is not complete in either case. In the same way that there are millions of safe car trips each day with a death rate of zero, there are many people that have COVID and don’t come to see you because they aren’t sick enough.
In countries that have taken action to address this with widespread testing, the hospitalization and death rates are much much lower, primarily as a function of the data collection. Also, many deaths are being included as COVID deaths that aren’t COVID but that’s another story entirely.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates
So don’t get me wrong I’m not saying COVID is a nothing – it kills people and needs to be taken seriously and in hindsight, social distancing was probably the right call given the R0 and hospital capacity concerns but that being said, it is becoming increasing clear that this thing kills primarily the old and sick. We can isolate those people while balancing hospital capacity against expected hospitalizations for everyone else without freezing the economy and accepting all the actuarially predictable consequences of that into the system for any longer than necessary.
Canada GDP Data (stats can)
http://www.rbc.com/economics/daily-economic-update/2020_Q1CanGDP-estimate.pdf
2020 Q1 minus 10% annualized, (representing a 2.5% non-annualized drop)
2020 Q2 ( estimate ) minus 32% annualized (representing a 8% non annualized drop)
BREAKING: Gov. Cuomo says he will sign an executive order requiring all people in public in New York to wear a mask or mouth/nose covering http://bloom.bg/3aawwYg
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-brazil-trial-for-drug-chloroquine-touted-by-trump-stopped-after-11-patients-die
I guess when Trump said “What have you got to lose?”. The answer was: your life.
Just looking at the numbers for NY here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
So they have 200,000 cases and have administered 500,000 tests. 2 out of 5 tests are coming back positive. Perhaps someone with more knowledge than me can chime in, but that seems to be woefully inadequate for the scale of the outbreak, and the true infection rate is likely many, many times higher. Not disputing that young people are dying, but the case fatality rate is going to be higher if they are badly under-testing.
What’s your balanced fund?
Again. I’m fully on board so long as you sign off on dying @ home instead of endangering hospital workers lives. Reason why death rate from car crashes is about the same is because we’ve taken measures. Look at places that didn’t act fast enough. Their death rates are not only above crash rates, but above everything. Double the number of people are dying in New York State right now from Covid-19 than they die from everything in a normal year. Death from Covid-19 has been above the normal rate of death from everything for 2 weeks now. They would be in an even worse state if they didn’t do anything.
Edit: Previous info graphic was for NYC only, not NY state, which is why the total cases only add up to around 100k instead of 200k.
We vaccinate for diphtheria and rubella, that’s how we deal with them. You can’t build herd immunity for HIV. That might be the case w/ Covid-19. We don’t know yet.
@nan
If the markdown works, that should be the stats for NY state for hospitalizations as of April 12th.
“We’re a month into what the IMF is saying will be the worst year since the great depression”
;
;
;
Yeah just awful, balanced fund down a whopping 4% YTD, putting us back to levels last seen near the end of…….. Oct 2019.
I get that. Alert Bay has a couple hundred people that live there.
Port McNeil has what 3000 people??
Generally what has been seen is if there’s case transmission from another country it’s because there’s an outbreak there. When there’s no testing, the first indication of an outbreak is transmission to other countries. It’s how we knew that things weren’t good in the states. We have 89 confirmed cases on the island. How much worse is it actually if we’re transmitting to Alert Bay? Contact tracing should tell the story, they just give us no details at all, so it’s hard to conclude that things are going well aside from hospitalized cases.
Outside traveller sounds like traveller from outside Canada, which is much less likely at this point.
In order to do a credit check you generally need a merchant membership with the credit bureau which generally partner with naborly. I don’t think you can’t report late rent payments through naborly – just do the credit check. However; there is now a separate Landlord Credit Bureau that also requires a membership but accepts individual landlords and can be used to report late payments to credit bureaus: https://landlordcreditbureau.ca/
Nan,
That was a fantastic post. Two thumbs up.
“Absolute safety” is going to be a tough bar to clear.”
This is not possible but we accept all kinds of risks every day.
There is increasingly pervasive data supporting the hypothesis that if you are under 65 and healthy, your risk of being hospitalized from this is very low (according to the CDC, only 10% of hospitalizations happen to people that aren’t already sick and most of those are over 65 as well). There are several data sets that support a less than 0.5% CFR and virtually zero risk of death for people under 50 (Iceland, Singapore, etc)
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-hospitalization
As far as I know, there are only a few ways to deal with a virus – either vaccinate everyone / let people get sick and build herd immunity like we do with diptheria or rubella etc or if we can’t do that, we just have to live with it like we do with HIV (condoms, etc) and the various viruses that cause the common cold (usually nothing)
Given that an effective vaccine is probably at least a year away and even longer than that for everyone (or maybe not even possible), I think reliance on what appear to be pervasively predictive demographic and co morbidity factors combined with available hospital capacity is probably the way forward here – i.e. do some math to get an understanding of excess hospital capacity that can be used for COVID by region, calculate an expected value for hospitalizations by age and known co morbidity in that region, increase that estimate by 50% to build in a buffer and publish a list of characteristics to help people understand whether it is safe for them to go about their business based on how old they are and whether they are already sick or not. I would bet that for most regions, materially everyone of working age will be able to resume their normal daily lives and things will quickly begin returning to normal. If a vaccine becomes available, we can administer to those most vulnerable at that point if they haven’t already been exposed.
Before anyone jumps down my throat and points out how terrible my idea is and how everyone will die,
As I said if you are healthy and young (under 65), most good data sets (with complete denominators) indicate that your risk of dying of COVID is much less than many other risks you accept into your life, whether you know it or not
As far as I am concerned, the cat is out of the bag – it is not possible to flatten the curve to nothing and eliminate this virus from existence such that people simply don’t get it. It now exists and it is everywhere, we need to figure out how to co exist with it like every other virus. Imagine how crazy it felt in the 80’s when you were used to having unprotected sex since the birth control pill was invented betting against the relative inconvenience of herpes when suddenly people in your circle started dying and you had to start wearing a condom or god forbid not have sex for fear of a horrifying death from pneumonia! Maybe now if you’re older, you need to be more careful and if you’re young and unhealthy, you need to lose weight and eat better because it is not fair for society to stop to benefit only the very old and the very sick (or the very fat and lazy) – that is not how things work on this planet.
I am readily prepared to trade expected COVID hospitalizations and even deaths for a return to economic activity to avoid expected deaths from other sources based on the best available actuarial data because this is exactly the same thing we do with everything else, whether you realize it or not. ( in fact, the death rate in BC from car crashes is about the same as COVID so far this year, or 1 per day) . While we may be flattening the curve from COVID deaths, the curve from expected deaths from unemployment and all the downstream impacts of economic inactivity is rapidly exploding the longer we wait to get things moving again.
The property manager for the last place I rented (I am now an owner) did a credit check on me beforehand, so I think he would have been in that position.
I agree that a lot of amateur landlords wouldn’t be though.
I agree
Already not too much as there are several of these in my general neighborhood
I’d say that social distancing measures work, we closed down early enough, and BC got lucky not to have super spreading events outside nursing homes and jails. Had it been at a church like in Korea there would have been much wider transmission spread. Expanded community testing is needed to reopen in the opinion of every credible source I’ve read.
Landlords generally can’t report missed rents to a credit bureau. In order to do this they’d need to have a merchant account with credit bureaus. They can report a court judgement for an unpaid debt.
Residents of Alert Bay leave the island to shop. There are six sailings a day to Port McNeil and people were stocking up. In addition, Alert Bay likely had residents return from abroad. Saying that an outside “traveller” brought covid is possible, but not the only explanation, or even the most likely explanation. If there was contact tracing and widespread testing – which seems entirely possible on an island with so few folks – they would likely be able to pinpoint the source.
Me too.
“A creditor definitely does not need a court judgment to report a payment problem to a credit agency. You can get a negative mark just by missing a credit card or mortgage payment, even if you make it up later.”
I understand that, I’ve just never heard of non-payment of rent affecting a person’s credit rating. Sort of like unpaid parking tickets or not repaying your mom and dad.
We started to buy on recent market dip, and waiting to buy more.
If you could, it is probably a good idea to
– keep some cash for living expenses (minimum 6 months if you are working or retired with pension, ours is about 5 years as we are retired with no pension)
– set a goal for your investment portfolio based on your own situation (ours is 30/70 (FI/EQ))
– focus on long term and keep investing …
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/i-never-left-the-island-b-c-mayor-says-traveller-brought-covid-19-to-remote-alert-bay-1.4895693
Big rallies happen in all Bear markets.
Can they explain how the mayor of Alert Bay got the disease when he hasn’t been off Cormorant Island?
Seems weird since it’s been what 4 weeks since they closed the borders for Canada, and they know of so few cases on Vancouver Island. It’s not exactly easy to get to.
You do realize that you could test negative and on the same day only hours later test positive? Testing in large numbers only represents a snapshot in time at that moment of the test and only for that individual or group tested at that point in time. What you want is a reliable antibodies test and even better a vaccine. Be sure to watch Friday’s presentation on modeling, testing and the like to understand BC’s methodology. Given the hospitalizations and ICU numbers over these last few weeks, I’d say that the BC government has a reasonable handle on what is going on in the community.
Yep, fully factoring in the potential it could crash back down and go lower. When it started dropping I figured we’d go down 50% and so I wasn’t concerned about anything short of that. Sort of disappointed at the rally actually, was hoping to pick up more at a discount.
So you missed out on some gains?
You missed out on more losses.
DOW is still 20% lower than it was in January.
We’re a month into what the IMF is saying will be the worst year since the great depression (https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/imf-worst-year-since-depression-1.5531430). If I hadn’t already sold, I’d be counting my blessings that it went back up to this level so that I could sell it all off.
The guy who drew Hawk’s graph. Time will tell, but if the bear market resumes, we would be at the part labeled “return to normal”. I’m sure you’ve almost everyone using that “return to normal” phrase lately. Of course we all hope that we do return to normal, but if we don’t, the market has got ahead of itself, as predicted by Hawk’s graph. If so… Yikes!
The reopening process will be a hell of a tightrope walk for politicians. Basically there is no way to balance just at exactly the right pace so they will be attacked heavily either for moving too slowly to relax restrictions or for moving too fast and causing a surge in cases.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-for-home-buyers-backing-out-during-covid-19-crisis-is-not-an-option/
Apparently not at the moment, for obvious reasons. For those already enrolled, generally they pay up to 6 months with a 60 day waiting period. They don’t cover the tenants in your suite not paying the rent though.
From what I’ve read it’s really not a good deal, having 6 months payments in the bank is a better investment. But certainly some people already signed up will benefit.
A creditor definitely does not need a court judgment to report a payment problem to a credit agency. You can get a negative mark just by missing a credit card or mortgage payment, even if you make it up later.
If municipalities are reasonable then what stop people from turning an inexpensive fifth wheel into permanent accommodation?
Hence many banks provide mortgage/income/disability/critical illness/life insurance for such scenarios (mortgage protection insurance can help you or your family keep your home if you can’t pay your mortgage as a result of a critical illness, job loss, disability or death.)
4221 Springridge Cres is now only $1.333M.
From the article:
“Education Minister Rob Fleming says he is not ruling out the possibility of reopening B.C. schools before June if provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says it is absolutely safe to do so. ”
“Absolute safety” is going to be a tough bar to clear. If that is the standard it will be tough to re-open this spring unless the virus unexpectedly disappears.
“Since the RTB is only dealing with emergencies, what would stop a landlord from hiring a collections agency? Which would likely impact a persons credit as well…”
I suppose there isn’t anything stopping a landlord from hiring a collections agency, but since all the tenant has to do is hang up the phone or not answer it, I’m not sure it would be money well spent. Not sure it would affect their credit rating either. Wouldn’t you actually have to actually get an order and enforce it in small claims for that to happen? Probably better off trying to negotiate some sort of deal with your tenant.
“People may be able to pay rent again, but not many are in a position to pay a few months of accumulated back rent. I think there will have to be a lot of concessions made to forgive some of that rent. RTB is not designed to handle that many eviction orders.”
I think the post-pandemic vacancy rate will be high enough to push landlords into compromising and working it out with tenants who are able to pay rent but are in arrears. I’m sure there will be an increase in evictions for unpaid rent, but there will be lots who work out a plan to deal with the back rent. Better to have someone paying than leave the unit vacant for 2, 3, 4 months…
I hope you are right and folks that can pay rent do continue to pay. I feel like there is going to be at least an extension to the no evictions policy and I wouldn’t be shocked if there was some form of official rent forgiveness. The policy already is already almost de facto rent forgiveness given how hard it is to collect anything from broke former tenants.
RE: stock market, totally agree Leo. Just think if you were trying to time the market and you hadn’t bought in yet. What would you do now? Double down and wait longer? Problems one doesn’t have when buying at regular intervals.
So who predicted this stock market? Just another argument for not paying attention and just keep buying at regular intervals.
I think so too. There will certainly be some that take advantage of the situation to not pay rent, but with the level of job losses I think most that aren’t paying have no choice.
Could be very bad when the eviction freeze is lifted. People may be able to pay rent again, but not many are in a position to pay a few months of accumulated back rent. I think there will have to be a lot of concessions made to forgive some of that rent. RTB is not designed to handle that many eviction orders.
After some early success, Singapore is back in lock down.
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-singapore-setback-concerns-dr-henry-on-when-to-ease-b-c-restrictions/wcm/734c7a46-28ad-4792-b196-ca278495307b/
“If Singapore can’t do it, I don’t imagine how we think we can. As I have said, this is going to be a roller coaster with multiple waves of opening and partial re-closings necessary.”
Well they said they were expanding the testing criteria a few days back, but so far no sign of it in test numbers. Hope it happens soon and we can hasten the re-opening of the economy with aggressive testing.
We did the same kind of planning, but I realise we were also very privileged to be in a position to buy before prices jumped 40% so it was still possible to do that. I think many people are simply stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either buy with less buffer or don’t buy and watch others do it. After many years of no substantial house price decline and low unemployment it is a very tough position to be in. Is this the virus that breaks the camels back or will it just keep piling on?
Guy that call’s himself “Dad” – that’s why the conversation was about when the crisis was over and was prefaced on the inability to evict people. When the mechanisms are stood back up such as RTB processes, courts and claims they are likely to be used by those involved. Unless there is some attempt at a debt amnesty or some other order by government, the money will still be owed. If they do try to push forward a debt amnesty it would likely result in some of litigation against government that they basically ordered property owners to incur. Since the RTB is only dealing with emergencies, what would stop a landlord from hiring a collections agency? Which would likely impact a persons credit as well…
I don’t think BC has even tested 7400 in the last week.
I’d think that anyone in the states that can afford a vehicle already does.
The public transit I’ve used there (with the exception of the subway in boston) has been much much worse than here. Caveat being that I’ve never been to NYC. For reference I’ve used public transport in 21 states, some have been in not exactly major cities though (like Fort Wayne, Indiana).
Education minister says B.C. students could be back in classrooms before end of school year
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/minister-fleming-bc-schools-covid19-1.5531925
“Unless a tenant has made some sort of arrangement with their landlord, you’d expect any rent in arrears would be sent to collections.”
Doesn’t work like that. You’d have to get a monetary order from the RTB, and then enforce it in small claims. But the Court is closed for non-emergency matters, so it’s gonna awhile. Plus you can’t issue an eviction notice now, so the process can’t even begin.
“On the contrary, in years past I’ve occasionally heard of some owners that try to bribe a non-paying tenant to leave, just to get rid of the problem”
There are definitely shitty tenants who know that by disputing the eviction notice, applying for review, and then applying for judicial review they can live up to six months without paying rent…and since they’re broke ass and busted, the Court will give them indigent status and waive the application fee. Sucks, but if you’re faced with this, it may be better to pay the unscrupulous tenant to leave.
LookingAtOptions – That’s why I caveated with “some sort of arrangement with landlords” whether it be partial or referring payments. Mom and pops may be less able to absorb covering someone else’s living cost as well. The person owed, will have to make a claim if they ever want to be paid at any point in the future or have a reason to proceed with getting control of their property. I also imagine it is pretty callous if a tenant that can pay, doesn’t pay during because crisis rules allow it. It’s going to be interesting to see what is worked out, presumably the debt for non-payment of rent won’t disappear. Or will landlords be able to litigate the province for being forced to suffer losses?
Umm..really said:”you’d expect any rent in arrears would be sent to collections”.
That’s like trying to get blood from a stone. The renters in arrears are presumably largely unemployed.
On the contrary, in years past I’ve occasionally heard of some owners that try to bribe a non-paying tenant to leave, just to get rid of the problem . “Here, I’ll give you $1000 if you sign this legal document agreeing to leave by XYZ. I just want you out.”. Evicting somebody was such an involved process at the best of times, taking the bribe approach sometimes saved time and money (and headaches/stress).
Maybe property management companies will send rent owing to collections, but i can’t imagine all mom&pop private rentals going to all that effort, especially if they personally know the tenant and understand the hardships the tenant is going through. It just seems callous (and often futile, as I mentioned).
Unless a tenant has made some sort of arrangement with their landlord, you’d expect any rent in arrears would be sent to collections. As well, once the emergency measures are lifted and the tenant hasn’t arranged some sort of payment schedule, eviction proceedings would need to begin. I wonder how many must sells have unpaying tenants living in them, can’t imagine someone wanting to buy a property with a squatter costing them insurance, electrical and other utilities with no prospect of rent coming in. I have read that banks no longer consider a suite as a mortgage helper anymore and it is now a risk liability on the amount of borrowing because there is more likely to be cost without rental income coming in. Additionally, the lenders are putting a stop to using HELOCs for the 20% needed for the down payment on investment properties and verifying if down payments were generated from the buyer or gifted to them.
Credit rating. Also there’s not going to be a rent forgiveness, it would result in landlords going broke or dumping their properties, not to mention discouraging future rental construction.
So is their any reason for tenants to pay rent right now other than out of habit or out of the kindness of their hearts?
They can’t be evicted for not paying rent. Maybe they can be evicted later, but who knows, maybe there will be a rent forgiveness afterwards or worst case they could probably agree to pay some portion of the back rent.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/residential-tenancies/covid-19
That’s gotta start putting pressure on some overstretched investors or homeowners reliant on suite income.
LeoM: Apparently in Wuhan vehicle sales have recently shot up, not because everything is economically fine there but because many people that used to use public transit are doing anything they possibly can to avoid public transit.
So that’s a twist on the traditional vehicle sales indicator. I wonder if that will happen in metropolitan North American areas too. If so, it may be moreso health scare vehicle purchasing than “hey everything is now fine let’s spend some money” vehicle purchasing.
(Meanwhile, the malls in Wuhan are supposedly still mostly empty, where permitted to operate)
If you have mild symptoms, yes no test, and stay home. But they are testing many symptomatic people.
If you turn up at an ER dept. and they are testing you for influenza, according to Dr. Henry they are usually also testing for CoVid-19. She mentioned today that one of the reasons that the daily coVid tests have gone down is that the number of such people with respiratory symptoms in general has fallen, as expected with the influenza season waning. Which is good news of course. The hospital and ICU numbers also point to a slowing.
Like most everyone, I wish they’d be testing the mild cases too, as well as surveying the population in general. But they are testing people with significant flu like symptoms that present to a Doctor.
Having said that, your point is correct that there are way more cases than are being reported, and they acknowledge that. A week ago BC Public health estimated that the total cases is really 2000-3000 which was triple the number at that time, and Dr. Henry said today that this Friday she will be updating that model.
Right, had bad dry cough, chest pain and low fever for about a week, but was told by family doctor to just wait it out. I think I am out (i.e. better) now after 10 days, so I will wait for antibody test whenever possible …
Economists track many indicators to watch the overall global economic trends, two of those indicators are:
1. new vehicle sales
2. Spot price of copper.
Both indicators are trending down, fairly rapidly.
House prices will slowly decline along with the overall economy, it’s inevitable, especially with so many people now unemployed and mortgages requiring dual incomes to maintain. But the decline will seem like slow motion compared to how rapidly things have changed in the past few weeks. The first house sales will be the must-sells and the ‘investment’ properties.
I doubt it. It will likely also include all those folks who have used their principal residence as an ATM machine and are now max’ed out on their Line of Credit. Most people in this category are over 40 and have owned for years.
Alberta is testing 7400/day and hopes to get to 20,000/day in May. They are saying anyone with symptoms can now get tested.
James: Of coarse we have more than 87 cases, a lot more simply because we dont test most people who have symptoms. Unless you are at deaths door you are not likely to be tested.
No, just new buyers and those who have bought recently.
What happens when they can’t buy or have to sell, respectively? Do you know that the US RE bust of the last decade began while unemployment was falling?
Is there really such a large amount people that require the max earning capacity from everyone in their household in order to sustain the household? I am seriously asking the question. When I planned for my housing, me and my spouse had to make several key decisions on affordability: do we want to maintain retirement savings, what if one of us falls sick and cannot work, are we able to fully fund our children’s college education, do we want a life away from work and our home, and what would it take to have a rainy day fund to sustain us for a year or two if something goes terribly wrong. Is this type of planning really that odd? Because of it, we have not been able to purchase a SFD in Victoria. However, it has always gave us a sense of security and flexibility in lifestyle. I really hope the numbers I hear and see in media are hyperbole to get attention because I don’t want to see anyone suffer or lose their homes, but I am having a hard time making sense of the scale of struggle people are facing.
Great post Leo. From what I’ve seen, prices move down very slowly, over years, it’s not like stocks that are instantly re-priced. That’s because of the reasons you’ve discussed, sellers reduced to must-sells, and there are still some buyers too. Prices have to be heading down though.
Interesting article Leo, thanks!
Seems like we have to have more than 87 cases on the island if it’s some how got to Alert Bay.
First