Flat stats hide a rapidly changing market

Markets up significantly again today, of course still way down from February (S&P 500 is down about 23%). I’m curious what the market timers like Grant are expecting at this point. Some on here were expecting a 50% drop.

No savvy moves from me, I’ve never sold anything and I buy more every chance I get regardless of what the market is doing.

It’s strange that BC has such low infection rates so far. You would think Vancouver would have imported thousands of super spreaders from Wuhan because of the high population of Chinese immigrants and the travel back and forth. We have pretty much the same measures as everywhere else in Canada too so why the heck are the numbers low (for now).

1) the BC owner builder exam is necessary for anyone who wants to start getting into the construction work and build their own home.

Exam is complete non-sense put together by a bunch of people that have never visited a construction site. People will get up to 5 questions on chimney code yet when was the last new house you saw being built with a chimney?

Also, how come you need an exam to build your own home but licenced builders don’t have to write an exam?

I could list another 25 points. The entire thing is a joke.

In 1892, the ruling class of Hamburg ignored scientists and delayed their response to the city’s cholera outbreak by weeks out of concern for the economy.

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/06/30/politics-of-a-plague/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20Longread%20Politics%20of%20a%20Plague&utm_content=Saturday%20Longread%20Politics%20of%20a%20Plague+CID_0918bc8eea80658bb4fc78e656c23f3b&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_term=Keep%20Reading

The Swedish approach is likely to backfire badly – and soon.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/06/sweden-drafts-new-legislation-allow-extraordinary-steps-combat/

Just found out because all the testing centers are closed BC Housing has made the BC Owner Builder Exam online and open book with 5 days to complete.

The virus exposing how dumb the exam is in the first place.

One has to also remeber that there are also hidden costs to the health care system if one flattens the curve over too many months. To some extent our hospital system has been semi paralyzed with delaying with other serious matters such as diagnostics for heart and cancer treatment .

That’s not a cost of flattening the curve, rather a cost of not flattening it enough. Elective procedures have been delayed in anticipation of a surge in Covid hospitalizations. If we knew the cases would be spread out over a long enough period, freeing up that many spaces would not be necessary.

RE: The Swedish Approach

Our focus has been to flatten the curve but that does not necessarily mean less deaths overall than Sweden (calculated on deaths per million) but rather spread over a longer period of time. The object of flattening the curve is to make sure that the hospital system is not totally overwhelmed (hence producing a number of otherwise avoidable deaths). While Sweden has seen a faster spread of the virus (and hence more deaths) there is nothing to suggest that their hospital system has been overwhelmed at this point.

The simple fact is that this virus will spread through the whole herd long before we can get a vaccine (if ever). Swedden has taken steps to try to protect its seniors (and hence flatten the curve for hospitalizations.). One has to also remeber that there are also hidden costs to the health care system if one flattens the curve over too many months. To some extent our hospital system has been semi paralyzed with delaying with other serious matters such as diagnostics for heart and cancer treatment .
There will be deaths from delay, how many is the unanswerable question.

In fairness it is a balencing game that absolutely no one can have the answer to until it is over and likely not even then.

Stay safe and help a neighbour out if you can. Also enjoy the day.

The Sweden approach is fascinating

It was an interesting contrarian exercise, but reality seems to be intervening. Their numbers are much higher than ours, on a population of ~10 mil.

Swedish Covid19 stats, in Swedish sadly. Avlidna = dead

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs

Regardless of the stats this is still a tragedy that has no good ending.

A few days ago Lancet published a detailed statistical analysis of the mortality rate for the virus.

I feel real sorry for the scientists doing these studies, as it is such a waste to use any reported Covid death data from Wuhan or China. We have relatives in Wuhan, they don’t believe government reported Covid death numbers at all. Body counts (from Jan 23 to Mar 23) from funeral homes in Wuhan is much much higher, even after subtracting normal winter death number.

A few days ago Lancet published a detailed statistical analysis of the mortality rate for the virus. The report is heavily into the statistics so only someone like LeoS will likely understand the entire report.

For the demographic under 70 years old the mortality rate is very low, with an average of less than 2% when only assessing the known people with infections, and disregarding the mild/asymptomatic people. In other words, using a similar methodology as the CDC used to identify annual flu deaths at 7% by comparing confirmed cases of hospitalizations to deaths and ignoring the unreported mild/asymptomatic cases of influenza/flu.

The Lancet authors clearly state that these percentages are very preliminary because statistics are notoriously inaccurate during the exponential growth stage of a pandemic.

For the demographic over 70 years of age the mortality rate is much higher as shown on the Lancet Charts, link below.

Lancet Charts: Estimates of case fatality ratio by age:

Complete Lancet Article
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

If we going to throw around percentages then we need to compare apples to apples, and use EXACTLY the same methodology to calculate percentages.

Despite your frequent capitalization of the word “exactly” the methods you are referencing are not using the same methodology. The Lancet article even mentions:

Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.

Capitalizing a word does not make it more true.

Also, even if the mortality rates based on hospitalizations are the same for Flu vs Covid-19, Covid-19 might still be way worse than Flu, because a much higher percentage of those getting Covid-19 seem to require hospilization. So saying the mortality rate based on this definition is mostly just academic.

The more likely scenario is that there are hundreds of thousands of infections in Italy and we just haven’t picked them up due to inadequate testing.

K i agree.. the number is not that bad .. no lets just call it 5%… you happy?

@ Mr Potato

Think about your 11% mortality rate for a sec. We know that about ~50% of people are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. We also know that 80% or so of people never go to hospital. So you’re telling me that >50% of those going to hospital die? Please stop propagating these ridiculous estimates. The more likely scenario is that there are hundreds of thousands of infections in Italy and we just haven’t picked them up due to inadequate testing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

If you guys don’t believe Chinese #’s, how about Iceland with its widespread testing: 1486 cases, 4 deaths = 0.27% mortality.

You shouldn’t divide deaths by current case count. Since it takes on average 18 days from diagnosis to death, you would divide deaths by # cases 18 days ago. In Iceland that was March 18, when they had 250 cases, (source worldometer)

Giving Iceland a mortality rate of 4/250 = 1.6%, which is 5X your estimate.

Another valid estimate would be deaths / (resolved + deaths) which for Iceland (worldometer data) is
4 / (428+4) = 0.93%, still more than 3X your estimate.

Despite there widespread testing, there are still undiagnosed cases which would lower those numbers. No one knows how much because there isn’t good data yet.

Re: mortality rates.

If you guys don’t believe Chinese #’s, how about Iceland with its widespread testing: 1486 cases, 4 deaths = 0.27% mortality.

I expect a fair number would.

Honestly, at this point. They deserve to get stranded out at Sea.

Let’s look at the facts: In Wuhan, China (ground zero), the first day of their lockdown was Jan 23/2020. By March 18/2020 (less than two months later), China was reporting no new local cases. By April 1st they were in the process of re-starting their economy.

The Covid reports from official in China are never the true facts. We have relatives in Wuhan, so believe me, don’t trust any Covid numbers and claims released by the government there, unless you can confirm them.

Mortality rates are likely to be proven to be much lower than the currently advertised estimates. It won’t be >1% and likely somewhere between 0.3%-0.7%. Read this recent paper from the Lancet: “Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0.66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age.”

I wouldn’t use nor trust any reported Covid death number from China.

For example, the official report of Covid death in Wuhan is about 2500. But we have relatives in Wuhan China (they are still in self-isolation mode now). They said lots people died in their own homes and other places that were not accounted inside the report.

There are 7 or 8 funeral homes in Wuhan, they started to release ashes of people died during past 60 days to relatives from March 23rd to April 3rd. The numbers was around 500 boxes each funeral home each day (announced by the homes). The normal death for the city (population 14 million) is about 5000 people each winter month (given by Chinese ambassador to France on french TV). Do the math yourself, (500 boxes x 7 funeral homes x 12 days) – 10000 normal death is how many? >>>> 2500 for sure. Note no photos allowed in and around funeral homes or the long lineups there (normally 5 to 6 hours wait), any of them leaked on the internet were removed.

Stricter measures implemented earlier appear more economically helpful for long-term economic recovery.

This research is based on the Spanish Flu which effected working age populations much more than COVID-19. It is not clear if this will translate to the current economy that is more service based vs manufacturing based in 1918.
Either way it is the best information we currently have to go off. I think the difficulty will be finding the right time to ease the restrictions.

whether it was the bubonic plague, Spanish flu, London and Germany getting bombed to smithereens, people adapt to the new reality, whatever it is.

Please enlighten me on the way people adapted to the bubonic plague. By dying out in great numbers? What a marvelous adaption.

The fear is evident in the posts of several people who contribute to this blog. Get over it!!! Some of us will get sick and a few might die, me included. That’s how life works.

I have multiple friends who work as doctors. Some in ICU. This attitude puts them in real danger especially considering the lack of protective gear.
I’m perfectly happy for you to get the disease to save the economy so long as you sign off on dying at home with no intervention by health care workers that you could also infect.

even at 5% it’s crazy to destroy the economy; at 1% it’s total insanity.

Again, the science does not appear to support your opinion that letting the virus run unchecked has an economic benefit.

Instead, it appears that there is no clear choice about “destroying” or “not destroying” the economy by making a political decision to lock down or let the virus run its course.

The virus unchecked will stop the economy and have severe economic fall-out.

Setting aside any humane or public health benefit for the lives saved, the economic costs alone of locking down on the pandemic appear to be less then those of not stopping it. Stricter measures implemented earlier appear more economically helpful for long-term economic recovery.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/what-cost-the-lockdowns-they-may-have-helped-in-1918-krtmv6ppj

Barrister, you’re right, the projected death rate isn’t 5%, it is less than 1% when the asymptomatic and mild cases are included in the calculation. But to appease the doom and gloom crowd I used 5% because even at 5% it’s crazy to destroy the economy; at 1% it’s total insanity.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-china.html

Another article I came upon this morning:

‘Tip of the iceberg’: is our destruction of nature responsible for Covid-19?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/18/tip-of-the-iceberg-is-our-destruction-of-nature-responsible-for-covid-19-aoe

Union representing B.C. Ferries workers readying for battle after layoffs

Johnston said the union was not surprised by the need to reduce service or to adjust the workforce, but he said they remain surprised B.C. Ferries “announced layoffs without taking any of the steps they are obligated to take under the collective agreement.”

https://www.timescolonist.com/business/union-representing-b-c-ferries-workers-readying-for-battle-after-layoffs-1.24112930

Talk about shameless.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/airbnb-s-request-for-tax-breaks-raises-red-flags-for-vancouver-advocate-1.4882572

Airbnb Canada has asked the federal government for a series of tax breaks to help short-term rental hosts make up lost income from cancelled bookings during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic modelling shows that strict measures, and the earlier the better, will save money and jobs. Even a yearlong lock down while a vaccine is developed is predicted to save about 2 trillion dollars in the US vs. economic lives lost. And the economy will shut down anyway if the epidemic grows unchecked. Of the two not so good options, lock down appears better. I’d be in favour of much stricter measures.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/modelers-weigh-value-lives-and-lockdown-costs-put-price-covid-19#

From a real estate perspective, I think the single biggest factor is: How long will this shutdown last?

Let’s look at the facts: In Wuhan, China (ground zero), the first day of their lockdown was Jan 23/2020. By March 18/2020 (less than two months later), China was reporting no new local cases. By April 1st they were in the process of re-starting their economy.

Applying this timeline to Canada (and we are doing a pretty darn good job of fighting this virus in our own right) our shutdown started about March 15th (four days after the WHO declared a pandemic on March 11th). So by May 15th, Canada will be in our recovery stage. By June 1st, we will be in the process of re-starting our economy. Yes, it will take several months thereafter to get back to normal, but we will get back to normal. Today’s news from Dr. Henry is very promising. So we have reason to be optimistic. We will get through this folks, have faith.

Pippa’s Song

The year is at the spring,
And day is at the morn,
Morning’s at seven,
The hillside’s dew pearled,
The lark’s on the wing,
The snail’s on the thorn,
God’s in His heaven –
And all’s right with the world!

Robert Browning

“ epidemiologists like Bauer say hospitalizations and deaths provide a better understanding of the course of the pandemic than test-based reporting of cases”
Test numbers are basically meaningless at this point.

I think you meant to say, test-based reporting of cases is meaningless. I think test numbers are meaningful. I agree with the other posters that if we had the capacity and resources we should be testing more, so we would have a clearer picture.

Thus is why not testing to the capacity is not right!!!

I don’t think the only factor is capacity. The other factor is resources. Taking a test uses up PPE, test kits, reactive agent used for the test, etc. My understanding is that some or all of these are still in short supply. I don’t think the health authorities are being open about why they are still rationing tests. Maybe they don’t want to highlight how short we are on supply for some of these resources.
Either way I do hope we can increase capacity and resources for testing soon and I assume this would then be used. I agree this would help us to ease the current restrictions.

So what do you do then? Test every one in the Province, every single day?

No… you test the people coming in, and quarantine them if in doubt.

If you test everyone, and quarantine everyone who is sick, then the lockdown is over.

People cannot seem to understand that we are not a hermetically sealed entity. Go ahead, test everyone and quarantine all that are sick. Then resume all normal activity, minus those that are quarantined.

Meanwhile, inter-provincial and international migrants come and go left right and center, and we continue to eat and handle consumer goods that have been handled by other infected people.

So what do you do then? Test every one in the Province, every single day?

“Lockdown is over”. Ugh, I need a drink.

Test numbers are basically meaningless at this point. The only thing that matters is hospitalizations and deaths

If you test everyone, and quarantine everyone who is sick, then the lockdown is over.
I’d say that’s meaningful.

FYI: one reader’s comment today on G&M for an article that BC might have flatten the infection curve:

“I hope the decrease in BC new cases is real, however the number of daily new cases seems to reflect how many tests performed on the day, last week, BC are getting 60-80 new cases a day with over 3000 tests daily, this week, BC are reporting 30-40 new cases a day with less than 1400 tests a day. Even though Dr Henry said BC continue to perform extensive/aggressive tests, the number doesn’t seem to support the statement! Getting more people tested will give us a more realistic picture, less test will mislead people to think we have turned the corner, and we are safe!”

I support this comment 100%. Testing under capacity is not right!!! Unless we put everyone into 14 or 21 days quarantine, those infected but undetected ones will spread the virus even with physical distancing. So BC new case number is not really reduced, just being held until it gets worse. What are we doing, partial herd immunity???

There is a limited time that one can effectively impose social distancing or closing the whole economy.

Agreed. And hopefully that rationale will help in opening the schools even though this probably won’t be “over” by then.

My guess is they will reopen, any effort to flatten the curve will be finished by September regardless of the degree of success. (assuming that it does not mutate into something different and much worse). At some point we will accept that the virus will end up thinning the herd.

There is a limited time that one can effectively impose social distancing or closing the whole economy.

Good information provided by Dr. Henry today on current research and the expert advisory body that has been formed to provide advice to government.

Soper, credit where credit is due: you did foresee this pandemic coming at the beginning of March:

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/03/02/february-market-report/#comment-66439

At the beginning of March, I did not think things would get this bad, this fast, in Canada.

If we’re honest, I don’t think many of us recognized, one full month ago, what day-to-day life would look like today.

Here’s what Les Leyne wrote, looking back at March 1st, in a recent column examining the chronology of events:

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/les-leyne-virus-s-stealth-attack-on-b-c-1.24110289

P.S. Does Trump ever admit he’s wrong?

I can just imagine if we rolled out the requirement to screen each kid’s temperature before going to school.

Yeah, I guess we are just f****** if we can’t even do simple things.

A bully who if you look closely very much resembles the orange man from the south.

Oops! Forgot the most obvious… you both couldn’t predict a pandemic in March!

Also:

Highest Stock Market In History, By Far – Donald Trump February 19th 2020

Bring on the gains! – Introvert the Economist ~Early March 2020.

@ Introvert: “A troll is a person who hides behind anonymity and posts inflammatory messages with the intent of upsetting people…etc. ” And you never give up!

Soper’s spouse must be delighted to be in daily company with someone who knows it all.

And yours?
A bully who if you look closely very much resembles the orange man from the south.

Here’s some examples

This ain’t saskatoon (and other prairie disparities) vs shit hole countries

Both brag about their net worth constantly

Inferring another poster killed his children vs Obama’s birth certificate

Was no coincidence that colten boushie was killed in saskatchewan vs. Mexicans are rapists.

I can only imagine how you got your husband… grab them by their genitals.

Absolutely love how you try to bring my spouse into this.
Is there any level you won’t stoop to just to belittle people on a message board?
You are pathetic.

Leo you said recently that 1 and 3 houses were going over ask (I think) has that changed much in the last couple weeks?

Thanks to the poster here who introduced Ron Butler (mortgage broker’s) twitter feed. Here’s another interesting post from him, from March 31st:
1.
“We Will See A New Approach to Mortgage Lending

Not a wholesale change but slow incremental tightening

Likely it will start with Rental Purchase Mortgages, they will require all cash down payments, no more get a HELOC on one house to provide down payment on the rental”

“/2 Also likely to see a limitation on how many rentals can be owned

I suspect soon once there are 3 rentals in a person’s name that will be the limit” . He clarifies later that is a global limit prediction, not per-bank limit.
…
(He goes on to predict):”No borrowed down payment will be accepted on a rental purchase
HELOC, Refinance, makes no difference
Down payment must come from unencumbered resources”; no parent/sibling gift loophole on rentals; However if you ask for a mortgage on the rental property in the first year and admit it entirely financed by a HELOC you will like not get the mortgage;if you incorporate, 35% cash down payment will become the norm there.. which is same as 26 years ago

Ventura county is in California.

Well yes, if you’re talking about a supply disruption in California, for sure it would have a significant effect on prices. Has in the past.

But I thought we were talking about getting unemployed Canadians to work in farms here instead of foreign workers.

Like just about everything else, the quantify of strawberries that households are willing to buy varies inversely with the price. My guess is that locally grown strawberries simply wouldn’t find any buyers at high labour costs and would rot in fields. Strawberries and associated fruits across NA would see a small increase in price due to drop in Canadian supply, which is only a small part of the NA total.

Ventura county is in California.
They’re currently not picking because they can’t get enough workers. USA and California in specific are a massive portion of the NA total of all fruits and veggies and nuts.

My 2 cents on inflation discussion below…..aren’t we in a deflationary environment in a pandemic? Even with cheap interest who is buying things right now?
China is back producing again so if you do buy something from dollarama they just increase production.
I don’t really see an inflation environment.

It was a hypothetical.
We don’t exactly know what is going to happen to a reserve currency when that country goes with negative interest rates. What happened with the swiss franc when they started with negative interest rates in 2015?

What happens in a deflationary environment when they can’t decrease interest rates enough to actually lower real interest rates enough to stimulate the economy? What happens to mortgages in a deflationary environment?

Also China has closed up a bit again. 3 days after opening theaters, they closed them. They’ve closed up Wuhan again.
We don’t really know what’s happening over there exactly.

I am still trying to figure out why the death rate in the US seems so much higher than ours at the moment. The US population is very roughly ten times the size ours. Our deaths are just under 200 and you would expect the US to be around 2000 not 7000. Even if you totally remove the deaths in NYC the numbers still dont seem to make sense.

Any thoughts out there.

BC ferries cutting back service, with traffic down 80%. And laying off hundreds of ferry workers.

https://www.bcferries.com/current_conditions/travel-advisory.html

“ The COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect all of us, including BC Ferries. Traffic across all of our routes is down approximately 80% because of COVID-19, and BC Ferries is adjusting service levels across multiple routes. The Coastal Ferry Services Contract with the Province of British Columbia has been amended to permit these service reductions.

Through this challenging time, BC Ferries’ employees have demonstrated courage and determination to support coastal ferry service. Unfortunately, these service level reductions will result in temporary layoffs for hundreds of dedicated and loyal employees. This was not an easy decision to make. BC Ferries’ goal is to keep the layoffs to as short as possible. The company will need all these skilled people back as soon as possible to help restore ferry services when traffic returns”

I get that the governmental powers that be are usually better informed than all of us at home, have top leadings experts at their disposal, see the “big picture” in ways we can’t. On many topics I too typically have found it annoying to read random critical internet postings by armchair quarterbacks at home who don’t have true expertise.

How dare we second guess the people in charge, and their professionals. Who are you, who are we, after all? I get it.

However, the fact is that such online discussions sometimes reveal truths and ineptitude at higher levels. And sometimes, just sometimes, the truths ,or at least the rational discussion, can spread like wildfire, and result in change and/or public recognition of ineptitude.

The easiest example is Donald Trump, and his shocking ineptitude over covid-19 ( nevermind other matters). If the so called “leader of the free world” can regularly screw up so very many things so very badly, surely there’s nothing wrong with people online — experts or not — second-guessing any of our Dear Leaders and their actions.

And let us not forget the Chinese doctor who dared speak out early online about Covid-19, and was arrested for his troubles. How dare he go online and second guess the Dear Leaders and their experts!

It is a blessing (and a curse) that any of us at home can publicly put out our arguments, our evidence (or embarassing lack thereof), and community critical thinking can logically deliberate and either say, “sit down, jackass, because xyz” or “hey you have a point there”, or both.

I too have thought,many times, “oh this guy must think he knows better than somebody in high office or with a PhD in ____ , how ridiculous”. But in truth, using only that approach attempts to unfairly stifle argument. Yeah, there are a lot of baseless conspiracy theories and dumbasses out there, but there is also sometimes truth and logic.

Next time you feel like somebody on the internet can’t possibly be worth listening over the powers that be, consider the governor of the U.S. state of Georgia, and these news from YESTERDAY:
“Despite the Governor’s mansion being a 20 minute drive from the CDC, Gov. Brian Kemp claims he just learned [on March 31st] that people without symptoms can still spread the coronavirus.”. So for the past several months, every single dumbass poster on HHV has been better informed to lead the covid-19 response in the state of Georgia, than its own governor.

You clearly didn’t understand that I was saying you’ve been playing economist for a decade.
Glass houses, stones yada yada.

Also wasn’t it you calling this another SARS or Swine Flu, and saying how annoyed you were that Swine flu was called a pandemic?
Didn’t realize that you were a epidemiologist.

Finally I think a lot of our strawberries are also imported from Mexico and they probably have even extra cheap labour right now so I doubt the price of strawberries will go up that much.

An extra thought, where’s all the cheap labour going to find the extra food to pick?

Beautiful strawman you’ve set up though, think it’d work for scaring the deer in my yard?

Just go outside without your mask. If the deer have been keeping up with HHV that should be enough to scare them off.

You mean that Austria – whose mask law takes effect this coming Monday – hasn’t had issues with compliance?

Not a single instance! Grocery stores have adopted it early and started handing out masks even.

Having worked at very high levels on issues of high importance…..

I think you are putting far too much faith in the system atm.

Clearly “the system” isn’t perfect. There are huge unknowns, we are learning new things every day, and therefore even the experts are making things up as they go along to some extent.

However, NOTHING I have seen so far indicates to me that the BC or Canadian public should lose faith in our top medical officers and instead start following the advice of random internet folk who have suddenly become public health experts in the last four weeks.

Yes, and I’d wager that anyone who bought during the decade or so that I’ve been on this blog doesn’t regret the decision.

You clearly didn’t understand that I was saying you’ve been playing economist for a decade.
Glass houses, stones yada yada.

We can all see that you are clearly better suited to the role of BC’s Provincial Health Officer than Bonnie Henry.

We can all see that you can’t refute a single thing I’ve said, and all you can do is attack the person.

She was also privy to all of this months ago, and has direct experience with SARS. Think that it would have been a good idea to maybe get more of these things?

We can all see that you are clearly better suited to the role of BC’s Provincial Health Officer than Bonnie Henry.

For example, I bet she and very few others are aware of how many days’ worth of medical supplies and swabs the province has at its disposal, as well as when new inventory of said items might — or might not — arrive. That’s just one example.

She was also privy to all of this months ago, and has direct experience with SARS. Think that it would have been a good idea to maybe get more of these things?

WHO says test test test.
BC says, we’ve done enough.
Sorry, but in my opinion saying we have no local transmission is bullshit. Look how not testing has worked for the states. New York State alone is going to be worse than Italy.

There are almost certainly a multitude of facts that the PHO is privy to, which we citizens are not, upon which she is making the most informed and judicious decisions possible given the circumstances.

For example, I bet she and very few others are aware of how many days’ worth of medical supplies and swabs the province has at its disposal, as well as when new inventory of said items might — or might not — arrive. That’s just one example.

isn’t in fact mishandling the crisis in any significant way.

Or maybe she is part of a bureaucracy that is not actually able to respond to a crisis without many layers of consultation and decision-making.

I don’t think she is personally mishandling things, she is a calm presence but is the public face for a big bunch of moving pieces and so decisions are slowed as new evidence and information is weighed, some of it contradictory. This is government, not business. This is not about individual decision-making, and government is by its nature slow and reactive, not proactive – unless someone steps up and is willing to take the risk and has the backing of the government.

What I would say is that testing, and quarantine enforcement, tracing, and mask wearing, are not being handled in accordance with what research says would be best practices or most effective. Is that one individual’s fault? No. Are people do their best? Most likely. Is that a life and death problem requiring more? Unfortunately, yes.

Maybe — just maybe — the armchair quarterbacks here should consider the possibility that the Provincial Health Officer, who coordinated Toronto’s response to SARS, has years of experience at the BC CDC and other places, and is privy to all available facts — isn’t in fact mishandling the crisis in any significant way.

Amen

I’ve done piece work. It is very motivating

I’ve done piece work too. It paid a hell of a lot more than minimum wage though.

Maybe — just maybe — the armchair quarterbacks here should consider the possibility that the Provincial Health Officer, who coordinated Toronto’s response to SARS, has years of experience at the BC CDC and other places, and is privy to all available facts — isn’t in fact mishandling the crisis in any significant way.

WHO says test test test.
BC says, we’ve done enough.
Sorry, but in my opinion saying we have no local transmission is bullshit. Look how not testing has worked for the states. New York State alone is going to be worse than Italy.

Finally I think a lot of our strawberries are also imported from Mexico and they probably have even extra cheap labour right now so I doubt the price of strawberries will go up that much.

I’ve never seen one single clamshell of strawberries from Mexico before. I’ve seen plenty from the USA, and local ones. Never from mexico. Google tells me 15% come from Mexico, but damned if I’ve ever seen one.

What percentage of people’s income go to labour intensive fresh farm products? Even if all these products go up by 100%, if Canadians spend about 1% of there income on it, it would only equate to 1% inflation. I think people spend way more on gas than fresh fruit and this has dropped by about a third.

Based on how inflation is actually calculated: 11.28% on food purchased from stores in 2017.
Gasoline: a measly 3.34%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2019001-eng.htm

…and you’ve got yourself some massive inflation

What percentage of people’s income go to labour intensive fresh farm products? Even if all these products go up by 100%, if Canadians spend about 1% of there income on it, it would only equate to 1% inflation. I think people spend way more on gas than fresh fruit and this has dropped by about a third.
Finally I think a lot of our strawberries are also imported from Mexico and they probably have even extra cheap labour right now so I doubt the price of strawberries will go up that much.

I’d have to agree with James, we are not doing a good job of this.

Maybe — just maybe — the armchair quarterbacks here should consider the possibility that the Provincial Health Officer, who coordinated Toronto’s response to SARS, has years of experience at the BC CDC and other places, and is privy to all available facts — isn’t in fact mishandling the crisis in any significant way.

The farmers themselves say they need the foreign workers.

Just like the restaurants said they needed foreign workers. Of course businesses prefer a captive labour force with no bargaining power.

It’s gruelling work that takes a long time to get good at.
It’s not like your average office worker or starbucks employee is going to have a profitable time doing this job.
Based on what the piece meal rate is for strawberries – $0.424 a pound

I’ve done piece work. It is very motivating

If there is a bit of inflation due to the agricultural sector having to pay a living wages to temporary workers, so be it.

It’s gruelling work that takes a long time to get good at.
It’s not like your average office worker or starbucks employee is going to have a profitable time doing this job.
Based on what the piece meal rate is for strawberries – $0.424 a pound (https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/employment-business/employment-standards-advice/employment-standards/forms-resources/igm/esr-part-4-section-18) and what the average U-pick estimates it takes to pick a quart (1.5 pounds, 10 – 15 minutes). You’ll could be making in between $2.50 and $3.80 an hour! Great success! Typically one of the people who’d normally do that job will pick at least double, so suddenly you’d be paying 2 people minimum wage ($13.85) for the same amount of strawberries. So $27.70 what would have once cost $5.

Add in the farmers profit, plus the grocery store mark up, and you’ve got yourself some massive inflation.

Leo S, there is a lag between when you get infected and when you end up in the hospital if you are that unlucky 20%, I believe that duration is typically 2 weeks.

Patriotz: “Actuaries are very much aware that someone who’s now 82 is likely to be around for a while longer. What’s your point?”

That is very true, Patriotz, however they use a mortality table to establish your pension. It isn’t a moving target. Nobody receiving a pension gets a reduced pension once they reach 82 or 92. The mortality table establishes the most likely age of death and your pension is predicated on that number.

So, in order to ensure that the pension fund is secure they assume “people are more likely to die at a certain age”. …. and they are right more times than wrong. Once again, people that are dying from Covid19 are well within or beyond the mortality age in B.C..

Regardless, the ones that will most likely pay the biggest price for this shutdown are the homeowners. 500,000 have now applied for a deferment in their mortgage payments. Leverage is a godsend on an upwards trajectory and a devil on the way down.

Unemployment numbers are reaching 2,000,000 and OSFI and the banks are preparing for the worse. There is a very real possibility of a double whammy, a Canada wide housing crash amidst another GFC.

Ignore the noise and look at the big picture.

According to several media reports, Quebec’s effort to have 10,000 hospital beds ready to treat COVID-19 patients is based on an estimate the hospitalization rate could reach 15 per cent.

For the past week, the province’s hospitalization rate was hovered between six and seven per cent.

“[The hospitalization rate] may give us a better sense of the underlying number of people who have the virus, even if not everybody is getting tested,” said Gaston De Serres, an epidemiologist at Quebec’s public health institute.

“So we will certainly be watching very closely the number of hospitalized cases.”

Quebec’s hospitalization rate is way lower currently, but most of their cases have come to light more recently. Either way, I think it should be fairly obvious at this point that BC is under counting. I can’t personally see the rational of keeping your head in the sand.

Increasing percentage of cases hospitalized would indicate we are undercounting more now than we were a week ago.

Funnily if the actual hospitalization rate is 8%, that means we’re missing around 2000 cases. Which is pretty close to what we’d be at if we tracked along with Ontario.

Try telling that to an actuary when they’re calculating your pension.

??? Actuaries at BC Pensions are well aware of that.

Canadian doctor doing daily updates on stats:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J1OmX2FlsM&t=32s

What do central banks start doing then if we start seeing 5%+ inflation?

Unlikely we are going to see consumer price inflation approaching that level with collapsed demand, even if some items such as strawberries do go up a lot (and they have spiked up in the past for various reasons).

When everybody’s back to work inflation could start going up. But there is so much consumer debt – and a lot more is being added now – that the CB’s are not going to have to raise interest rates to 1980 levels to keep inflation under 2%.

RBC listed the total cost for the Federal Govt wage subsidy and other programs so far…. More than $105 billion CAD

“ federal government having now unveiled extensive support for both households and businesses, including a whopping $71 billion wage subsidy that leaves total commitments (excluding tax deferrals and lending programs) north of 105 billion”

” So someone who is already 82 has a life expectancy beyond that.”
Try telling that to an actuary when they’re calculating your pension.

Actuaries are very much aware that someone who’s now 82 is likely to be around for a while longer. What’s your point?

One of the questions I keep thinking about w/r to interest rates, is what happens if they actually get inflation? With the lack of temporary foreign workers to actually pick stuff in the States (right now is actually a prime picking season in parks of California for some stuff like Strawberries, Lemons, Avocados, Cabbage, Celery), at some point these things are going to become a lot more expensive.

What do central banks start doing then if we start seeing 5%+ inflation?

Life expectancy varies in B.C. health regions, with Vancouver Coastal leading the way at 82.4 years for men and 86.4 years for women.

That’s life expectancy at birth, and it doesn’t mean that people are more likely to die at a certain age. It’s just an average.

So someone who is already 82 has a life expectancy beyond that.

I’m not really sure what to make of the report on Global news yesterday regarding the median age of death from covid. 85 sounds like it’s right in line with mortality statistics.

Life expectancy varies in B.C. health regions, with Vancouver Coastal leading the way at 82.4 years for men and 86.4 years for women.

The Northern Region sees the lowest average life expectancy at 77.4 years for men and 81.9 years for women. The Island Health Region ranks in the middle of the five zones at 80.2 years for men and 84.1 years for women.

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/life-expectancy-lowest-in-northern-b-c-health-report-1.4269874

According to the BC Centre for Disease Control, the median age of people who contract the disease caused by the virus is 68, while the median age for people who die of it is 85.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6769101/seniors-homes-coronavirus/

The problem is the lag time – just like with the title of your HHV article – hospital stats hide rapid changes. We have no way of knowing how many cases are in the community at this point and up to 25% are asymptomatic but contagious. Also, for those of you with family members in long-term care, if you can get your loved ones out and bring them home until this passes, this would be advisable.

Doesn’t seem to be running rampant

Look at else where that it is running rampant. They had nothing until suddenly it was all around them.
I just don’t understand how you can say that you can’t argue with the results.
If they tested no one, they’d have no cases, and then you couldn’t argue with the results, because we’d be getting no new cases a day! Success!
We had 2 deaths on Vancouver Island yesterday. Usually death rate is 1 to 2 % which means we either got unlucky at only 70 cases, or we have double that aren’t counted. Korea had a huge outbreak stemming from 1 patient ignoring the warnings. All you need is some dumbass thinking it’s just the flu (and there are plenty), and you end up with 8000 cases in one area like they did (and that’s with massive testing and contact tracing). What do you think would happen here with the stringent guidelines on testing?

LeoM: Not to rain on your parade but I dont believe that they know for sure whether one gets immunity to Covid 19 for any length of time after having the virus. Put another way can you get it a second or third time a few months later? If people can repeatedly get it every few months than herd immunity will not eradicate it.

If you, or anyone else has read any compelling research on whether getting Covid gives one immunity I would love to know about it. Not saying it does not exist I just have not seen anything on it.

Leo, hope you and yours are doing well.

Just Renter said: “Very Interesting Information!”

Indeed!

You don’t need a Twitter account to read tweets (contrary to what some here believe), but anyways here is what Ron Butler (“RobMortgageGuy”, apparently the mortgage guy at discount broker “Butler Mortgage”?) says:
“1.
The New World of Mortgage Lending

It began today:

Not for teachers or for Loblaw’s Managers or for Police Officers with good scores

But for Realtors: don’t care what you made last 2 years we need to wait and see what you make this year before we refinance your house ”

2.
677 FICO Score: No we don’t provide mortgages for anything less than 720 today

Want a HELOC?: Oh sorry we’ve withdrawn the product

Need to consolidate debts and refinance your mortgage?: OK but we going to cut up all your credit cards and pay off your car loans ”

3.
We can’t consider your electrician income until you are back to work, or your hair stylist income, or your independent physiotherapist income or on and on and on

Now all of this does NOT apply at every bank and to every bank client

But it’s only April 2nd

12 weeks to go [when businesses are hoped to reopen, we hope]

In later brief posts he also says:
“And this is just TODAY”
…
“It’s the lenders money, it’s their decisions [not the regulators at this point]”
…
“Hey, I actually don’t blame any lender for day to day changes right now. And I don’t blame them for not publicizing them either”.

A lot of interesting other posts in that thread, from other people. I recommend reading through them.

E.g. “Like 2008/2009 again. Bankers first off the titanic. Allegedly we’re in this together.”
E.g.2 “We’ve been in a ridiculous bull market for so long that lenders can’t put much value in an agents real ability to earn. This is going to be interesting to say the least. Same thing in the ’90’s and it’s a huge wakeup call. Agents tend to work and invest in RE. All in 1 basket.”
E.g.3. “Yep, nothing more than logical, responsible lending IMO. Something we haven’t seen in decades.”

…Yikes!

I feel saddened that we had two deaths on the island today; I hope not too many more to follow.

Looks like masks are going to be a thing in the US:

“In light of these new data, along with evidence of widespread transmission in communities across the country, CDC recommends the community use of cloth masks as an additional public health measure people can take to prevent the spread of virus to those around them,” according to the guidance, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post.”

I’m sure Canada won’t be that far behind. Wearing face masks personally drives me crazy, but I better start getting used to it.

France – 1,350 new deaths today, most of any country in 1 day, brutal.

Not entirely accurate. They had an extra 800 so today that didn’t all occur today. Today was just the day they decided to include people dying outside of the hospital (ie: in care homes) into their total. One day Germany and England will do the same.
USA will likely have over 1350 by Monday.

Also, USA still has a bunch of updates left to do today.

I guess you haven’t been outside lately? I’ve seen lots wearing masks including probably 75% of people and staff I saw in YVR and YYJ.

The stats on deaths would be from infections between January 1-March 15th ish when no-one but health care workers and possibly those from Asia were wearing masks in Victoria. I transited through YVR and YYJ in mid-February and no-one but us and a few fellow passengers were wearing masks (we were coming from Asia). This is now changing, but we won’t see that reflected in a reduction of hospitalizations or deaths until maybe mid to end of month imo. Hopefully soon there will be a significant shift. I just had to go out and most were not wearing masks in Canadian Tire although they do have a controlled number of people in the store.

Canada – only health care workers wearing masks

I guess you haven’t been outside lately? I’ve seen lots wearing masks including probably 75% of people and staff I saw in YVR and YYJ.

Or are Japan’s numbers severely underreported?

There is speculation Japan was sticking its head in the sand trying to pretend business as usual to save the Olympics for this year. I would be curious to see now that the Olympics have been postponed, they will ramp up their testing and realize COVID-19 may have spread more than was being reported.

Reference:
https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/03/26/covid-19-forces-japan-to-delay-the-olympics

Finally… fines (<$100K) , jail time (<one year) and enforcement for people violating the rules (just like there are for littering).

“ Canadians face fines, prison for violating physical distancing rules”
https://youtu.be/uAZt7mVcA1Y

Now can we have compulsory mask-wearing or do we have to wait until we’re like Italy or USA for that?

https://twitter.com/FaheemYounus/status/1245547129831067649

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983?resultClick=1

Super small sample size, and still requires clinical trials, but…

Lots of countries have low testing. We can look at other data though to see what the numbers are like

Japan – everyone wearing a mask
First case: January 10
Population: 126.8 million
Density: 336 people per square kilometer
Number of COVID deaths: 57

Canada – only health care workers wearing masks
First case: January 15
Population: 37.59 million
Density: 4 people per square kilometer
Current number of COVID deaths: 134

So despite a later first case, about 1/4 of the population, and a fraction of the density, we have had more than double the deaths so far.

Or are Japan’s numbers severely underreported?

Apparently they don’t do much testing.

Only 30K tests done in Japan,
(where BC has done about 44K with 1/25th the population, http://www.bccdc.ca/about/news-stories/stories/2020/information-on-novel-coronavirus. Incidentally, BC has done about the same number of tests per capita as South Korea. BCs tests are targeted to elderly, HC workers and people with bad flu symptoms. While that’s a great strategy, it would also be great to do expand testing to more groups (mild symptoms or population in general. )

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/asia/japan-coronavirus-shinzo-abe-masks-hnk-intl/index.html
“ While the current tally stands at around 2,300 cases, Japan — a country of over 127 million people — has only tested just over 30,000, compared with 394,000 tests carried out in neighboring South Korea, which has a population of just over 51 million.”

I am having trouble reconciling all the Covid numbers being reported by countries.

Japan is reported to have great numbers, but they are nowhere near the lockdown that Canada is at.

In the Tokyo area, there is some degree of precaution, but not all that much compared to Canada. A great many people are still commuting to workplace, taking the crowded trains, and just to give you an idea:
– some live musical performances are still happening
– regular medical workers (like dentists) have never had to close, have been business as usual this whole time
– daycares are operating
– schools are said to possibly be opening again next week
– pachinko parlors (gambling) are business as usual.

One pachinko parlor chain put a sign out front of one location, explaining that they’re battling covid-19 by — get this — turning off a portion of their exterior lighting! Can you imagine if Great Canadian Casinos stayed open but only turned off some awning lights? https://soranews24.com/2020/04/02/pachinko-parlor-has-weird-way-of-combating-covid-19-that-does-nothing-about-swarms-of-customers/

And don’t forget, Japan has a very large elderly population. I know the country has a very strong work ethic, and illness has traditionally seldom been an excuse to miss work and let down the team, but covid-19 doesn’t respect cultural boundaries.

I mention all this, because despite widespread occurences in Japan that would cause outrage in Canada, Japan is reporting better covid-19 rates. What gives?

Is Canada taking the wrong approach, and in the process unnecessarily causing grave domestic economic damage? Or are Japan’s numbers severely underreported?

Also with all these mortgage deferrals, the debt still has to be paid. In 6 months when they expire it might be a second wave of forced sales.

The interest that hasn’t been paid during the deferral period continues to be added to the outstanding principal of the mortgage. It doesn’t come due in six months. My understanding is that when the payments start again, the mortgage payment might be based off the total amount the borrower then owes to pay off your mortgage in accordance with the original payment schedule. This should not cause a second wave of forced sales, although permanent job loss might.

Banks calling HELOCs at this time would be a public relations and economic disaster with little up side – government would probably step in to regulate/prohibit this. Doubt we would see this longer term unless we have a major drop in house prices along with really slow recovery.