Dec 24 Market Update: Construction turns over
Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| December 2018 |
Dec
2017
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 129 | 226 | 303 | 462 | |
| New Listings | 158 | 272 | 338 | 441 | |
| Active Listings | 2211 | 2146 | 2065 | 1384 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 82% | 83% | 90% | 105% | |
| Sales Projection | 415 | 410 | 390 | ||
| Months of Inventory | 3.0 | ||||
Looks like the market is going for an early snooze this December, with year over year sales declines increasing as we get further into December. We’ll end up in the high 300s which is the same as in 2014. Difference is in December of 2014 we had well over 50% more properties for sale.
Over asks have died down to a normal level for this time of year, at about 5% of sales. Last year was abnormal in that respect as the market remained very active into November and December.
On the construction side, we are finally seeing starts turn over, dropping a little to roughly were they were at the start of the year on an annualized basis. They are still a quarter higher than the previous peak in 2007 though and units under construction continue to climb to completely unprecedented levels. Watch that completions data in 2019, there is going to be a ton of projects getting occupancy in spring 2019 and that will relieve pressure on the rental market and condo inventories. To put this into context, for a population growth rate of 1% we need about 2000 new housing units per year so we are currently building roughly double that number. However we are also digging ourselves out of a big inventory crunch so I don’t expect issues with oversupply yet. As I wrote in January, building inventory back is a slow process.
I love stats more than I love my job lol. Follow real estate closely, so thanks for keeping regular folks like me updated. Reminds me that I should look at charts a little more, not simply the numbers.
Whew, took a househunt break over the holidays. What’s going on around here?
Predictions thread for 2019 is up:
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/12/31/goodbye-2018-forecast-time/
That bus has long gone, and it is unlikely will ever be back specially for a new no suite SFH for around 600K in the core. Out in the Westshore one can still get a new SFH for 700K on a micro lot and perhaps $625 for a older home.
PS. Happy New Year to everyone…
It is just an excuse for the city to extort additional cash from the public in the form of property tax.
FYI, The BC Assessment site has been updated.
My Victoria SFH is up 8% over the previous year. But, I do know its from July 1, 2018
https://www.bcassessment.ca
Sounds good! Talk you in the New Year!
Went to UsedVic to peruse the rentals section as I do from time to time. I noticed that some of SFHs that I considered high for rental rate are back up again. Some of these properties that I casually watch seem to turn over about every 6 months. I can’t imagine that’s a desirable outcome for one’s rental property. Will be an interesting year 2019.
Happy New Year HHV’rs!
It was “inopportune” but then I switched it to “suboptimal.” [sigh]
Could be a decade. Could be five years. Could be two years. The fun thing is, no one knows.
You don’t want to argue about it because you’d be wrong.
Barrister hit the nail on the head. Rates have been lowered and lowered in order to maintain the buying spree in RE. With rates so low for so long, it’s only maintained 6% of disposable income for mortgage servicing, which as others have pointed out, is a terrible metric to understand common scenarios.
All mortgages where the borrower meets CMHC’s requirements quality for insurance. The insurance is mandatory if the DP is < 20%. But CMHC is happy to insure mortgages with higher DP and the banks are more than willing to make them. In fact, the banks used to insure low ratio mortgages after the fact until CMHC put a stop to it.
Introvert- tell me you didn’t write that!
🙂
Dreyk: Good question and I cannot imagine how one might get an answer to that one.
Patriotz: i have to agree with you that people renting out their property to move into a cheaper rental is usually rare. In most cases other consumer spending is cut first and often cut to the bone. This can result in a major impact throughout the economy.
But it is the end of this year and we all have a brand to year to look forward to with hopefully great and wonderful things to come.
I’m left wondering: How many people have the ability to put down more money on a house ….but have chosen not to do so because if they did put more down they would not qualify for the lower interest rate at the bank….because the banks prefer to lend to people putting less down. The mortgage then qualifies for the government guarantee. So if we see people with higher debt ratios showing up on the graphs….does it really mean that they are in danger, because they might very well have more money in their savings account………. but chose not to do so when they purchased the house.
It’s just an observation and I would love to know the answer to that.
Patrick. and Durran-Durran
Durran: The study shows that Canadians are still paying about 6% of their income on loan payments (both principal and interest)as they were years ago when interest rates were at least twice as high. it is the fact that total indebtedness (the amount of loans outstanding) has skyrocketed that poses the problem. Yes, some people have used the opportunity of extremely low rates to pay down the amount that they own but overall Canadians have gone out on a borrowing binge. Obviously this has been reflected in house prices.
But as the old saying goes, we will see who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Patrick, we can agree to disagree if you want. Happy to buy you a beer one day at the Penny Farthing or if you would like to pop by for a glass of wine at the house one day.
i am not sure if patric knows what that 6% debt service ratio means .. its not 6% of personal income .. its 6% of all income earned by all combined income –
cmhc grabbed the data from statcan website
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110006501
service debt ratio remains constant and debt to household income increase –
– means ratio of people paying mortgage debt decrease.. .. enlightenment is welcome .. since i am not a math major
Deryk: I will agree that you are the voice of reason but I suspect that you will agree that you are not describing the average person since most people either are not prudent or are are unable to follow your prudent advice.
If the only thing you own is a one bedroom condo you are sort of stuck in terms of options. Dinners out, vacations and replacing your old car usually get cut out first.
If you are free for lunch on Wednesday or Thursday let me know and we can try to get together.
Most people who are likely to get into trouble if rates rise aren’t saving anything except the principal part of their mortgage payment. There is nothing to shift.
But I don’t think they will “panic and sell”, almost all owner-occupiers will hang on as long as they can. Nor do I think more than a few will rent out the property and move into a cheaper rental. Except perhaps into the suite if the property has one.
Reminds me of U.S. housing market 1988-1993(ish). Big FOMO, big asks, big over price sales and then the bottom dropped out. By 1993, there was low inventory and average/low numbers of buyers. The statement was nobody is buying / nobody is selling and for the most part, folks stayed put where they were. Best deal ever on a SFH for me came in April 1993. Family had to sell – it was a job move and we were able to put together a really nice deal.
Low inventory can and does occur in both up and down markets.
Barrester asked…..” Even for those not in over their heads, what do they cut out of the budget when faced with a much higher mortgage payment.”
One “possible” answer: Those that always made it a rule to plan for the worst case scenario and made sure that they had the ability to hang on through rough times….would increase their incomes by moving out of their largest, most rentable property ……. and move into the little suite and hunker down while everyone else panics and sells.
I mention this idea here not to be smug. But only because it was one of the best lessons taught to me over all the years and was told to me by someone whom I respected very much.
Another valuable lesson I was taught was “Never” buy something that you wouldn’t be happy living in yourself. That way you have created a backstop if it turns out that you guessed wrong on the future direction of real estate. That way…… the worst you might have to do is move into a smaller place.
Happy New Year to everyone. I have no idea which way things are going to go next year other than my gut telling me that I wouldn’t risk “not” being in the market in some way.
Hope they don’t mind waiting a decade. 😉
You should be able to get a read:
1990 recession began and gwac got his condo at 50% off.
2000 tech crash wiped out billions. Nortel the Canadian darling broke hearts and investment accounts from coast to coast.
2005 was early beginnings of US housing crash.
Looks like the stars are aligning. 😉
In Patrick & Barrister’s debate, I’m not sure why the assumption is that ‘Joe’ has to borrow more to maintain principal payment. Can’t he just shift his investment ratio? That’s what we’re doing in my household – fewer security purchases (turns out to be a great move as the market tanks) and more mortgage principal payments.
Charie – buyers haven’t left the building, they’re just at average levels, rather than above average levels. The only unusual thing we’re seeing the past 6 months or so is that prices have not continued to climb despite low MOI. But that could also just be the seasonal effect, since we know that sales are slow in the fall. The action is always between March-July.
Most prospective sellers are like, “Downturn? Fine, let’s wait a few years and sell when the market is hot.”
That’s exactly the approach we will take when we sell (which will be a long time from now). When Victoria RE is hot, it’s not unusual to see good places go for $50K+ over asking in fewer than 10 days. One is probably leaving some significant money on the table by selling at an suboptimal time.
fiction
Listings have dropped off because those that are planning to sell their house in the next year or so are waiting until the market recovers to its former glory of 2016/17. Few listings now means more listings in the spring. Unfortunately, the buyers have “left the building”. Prices will slowly come down next year in Victoria as listings begin to mount because the sales will continue to decline year over year. No buyers means no sales. Not molecular biology, not even rocket science. By fall of next year house prices in Victoria will really begin the downward movement. This scenario is currently playing out in Vancouver for the last couple years. Van is just ahead by a year or so.
Barrister
Better still, let’s halt this discussion and call it a draw. That allows me to get a head start on my New Years resolution to “argue less”
On a different topic. I’m looking forward to hearing details on your Rockland house if/when you list it. I’ll be watching this space. Those are rare, beautiful one-of-a-kind houses.
“Patrick: No, because if he (Joe Smith) did that, he would show up on the graph as someone paying all 6% of his income on interest (3% interest x $200k) and nothing on principal repayment.”
You are splitting hairs here. Barrister’s point was that in order to maintain the same ratio in a lower interest-rate regime you need to borrow more, much more actually. Just change $200k to $140k and the example still makes sense.
You are a good lawyer. As the adage goes, when you have the facts on your side, argue the facts. When you don’t, pound on the table.
We were arguing “Joe Smith” and the facts on that CMHC. You introduced Joe Smith, as an example of my math was wrong. Switching the argument to something else is pounding on the table. If you want to admit that your Joe Smith example was a swing-and-a-miss on your part, I’m happy to move on to a different topic as above,
Patrick, so how do you account for the total ballooning debt of Canadians? A lot more is owed now than five years ago.
No, because if he (Joe Smith) did that, he would show up on the graph as someone paying all 6% of his income on interest (3% interest x $200k) and nothing on principal repayment. The CMHC graph doesn’t show that, it shows Canadians lowering their interest payments and growing their equity payments. That is the impressive thing about the graph. https://goo.gl/images/Er8DCi
I hope you do see the falling interest payments on that graph which doesn’t occur in your Joe Smith example.
Instead of a “Joe Smith”, The graph shows that Candians, in aggregate are more like an “Eddie Equity”, who are taking advantage of the low interest rates to pay off equity, not increase their interest payments as a percent of disposable income by borrowing more.
ks112: Not sure that you can base fair prices on local incomes when such a large percentage of the sales are are from off island purchasers. Actually, not sure what you mean by the word “fair”.
I am really impressed with the simplicity of Barrister’s last post. Perfect explanation.
What do the bulls and bears think is a fair price for the average Victoria SFH assuming a mortgage rate of 4%. Given local incomes and general macro economic trends, I would say about $625k.
Nan,
Good post. I don’t want to argue about it, because I’d just be repeating myself. I am genuinely surprised and blown away by that CMHC good-news graph https://goo.gl/images/Er8DCi , showing that only 6% of disposable income on average goes to mortgage payments in Canada, and this has been a constant for 30 years. If it means nothing to you, or you somehow interpret it as a worrying sign, fine by me.
Good luck and Happy New Year to all!
@Patrick for a math major, I would expect you to understand that if bill gates is in a room with 100 “normies”, the average income becomes meaningless to folks trying to understand the dynamics of that room, sort of like your 6%.
Ultimately, if we’re concerned with housing market stablity, we know that mortgage default happens based on what the least capable borrowers have in their pockets, not the average borrower. There are many metrics out there that show we have more of this type of borrower than ever before. the entire cmhc is subprime for starters.
as far as the data is concerned, interest rates have never been this low for this long and housing has never cost as much relative to anything else, ever. I would say that maybe some of the things you mentioned about Canadians and payments are valid as a history lesson but operating under the assumption that the members of the pool of marginal borrowers are paying down their mortgages faster now when we know they can’t afford to and that wages will go way up when we know they won’t (globalisation, automation, etc) is a bit of a stretch.
The pool of marginals is big enough to negatively and pervasively affect the market and if rates go up significantly, I would expect a similar house value impact to the 2008 US condition. Although I would like to believe what you say, all the data I have tells me that it probably won’t be the case until price to income ratios line up with those that generated your data in the first place.
Marko: Any guesses as to why the listings have dropped off.
Looks like for the month of December we will have the second fewest new listings since 1990 with 2000 being the only year with less properties listed in December.
For the year we haven’t seen this few new listings since 2005.
I cannot get a read on this market whatsoever.
Patrick: You are right you are not following the math.
Let me run you through the math. In order to keep it simple lets assume that incomes have not changed.
Joe Smith borrows 100k at 6% and his income to payment ratio is 6%.
Interest rates drop on that 100k and he is now paying 3%. His income to payment ratio should drop to 3%.
The only way that the ratio stays at 6% is if he goes out and borrows another 100k and increases his debt to 200k.
If rates then go back up to 6% Joe Smith is paying that on 200k and suddenly he is in trouble.
Obviously it is a bit more complicated but the above example is pretty well the picture for the nation. You are right that it would have been good news if when the rates dropped Canadians had used the opportunity to reduce their debt. Instead they simply loaded up on more debt.
The question becomes what percentage of Canadians are in trouble if their mortgage payment goes up by thirty or forty per cent. Even for those not in over their heads what do they cut out of the budget when faced with a much higher mortgage payment.
Somebody posted a graphic earlier showing that the total amount of debt owning by Canadians has grown dramatically over the last few years which confirms what I am saying. If they were paying down the principle faster as you are suggesting then the total amount of debt should have gone down.
Sorry, I don’t agree, and I’m not following the basic math in that argument. (I did major in math in uni btw). These are ratios so the “principal has grown a lot” is matched by “income has grown a lot”. The ratio has remained the same because interest rates have fallen and the EQUITY pay down has risen. That’s paying down the balance of whatever principal they have, and they are currently paying it down much faster than any time in the last 30 years.
Would you really be less worried in 1992, when the graph shows you that almost all mortgage payments just went to interest payments with very little equity pay down? Now there would be a time to worry about rate rises. Not today.
When rates rise, the interest payment will rise, but that graph shows you that Canadians have historically paid off less equity in times like that. See my previous post for the means that they do that.
Moreover, look at the absolute number, which is 6% of disposable income that the average Canadian is paying on mortgage payments. You do see that leaves them 94% to dispose on something else, and that 6% number has plenty of room to grow. Not for everyone (some would struggle), but just points out that impact to the economy of that one metric (mortgage payments) is not so big at 6% of disposable income. People spend more than that on their autos/gas.
Patrick:
In order for the ratio to remain the same, it means that the total amount of principal has grown a lot and when the rates go up that principle will be outstanding. I am trying to decide if you are really not looking at this clearly or if you are just trying to spin the facts at this point.
Happy New Year everyone, may all your bull/bear dreams come true.
That’s the beauty of that graph. https://goo.gl/images/Er8DCi as it shows you the answer to your question. Which is, when rates rise, Canadians on average slow equity payoff on their mortgages, resulting in a cushioning effect so that total mortgage payments don’t rise much.
You have CMHC data from the last 30 years to answer your question. Just look at a point like 1992, when rates were higher, and the interest portion of the payment was much higher (6%) than today (3.5%).
And the graph answers your “what happens when interest rates rise”, as you can see that in the graph. Canadians respond by paying off less equity on their mortgages, and remarkably keep their total payments about the same. That point is worth mentioning because I haven’t seen it mentioned here in the last year I’ve been here. The point is that many Canadians are not just paying minimum mortgage payments, but are paying their mortgages down faster, because of low interest rates. Someone in year 1 of a 25 year mortgage may struggle to be paying more that minimum payment , but someone in year 12/25 has seen their incomes rise and mortgage payment stay the same (or fall due to rates), so can and does afford to pay down more equity. As rates rise, that process reverses, but as you can see from the graph the overall payment doesn’t rise much. The “paying off less equity” can take many forms, it may be just reducing to minimum mortgage payments, or in some cases could be refinancing to a longer term etc.
But, patriotz, all of that should be reassuring news to you because I know how concerned you are about people struggling to pay their mortgages when rates rise.
We get it Patrick. You’re over invested in real estate but spinning the wrong numbers that won’t make a banker stop tightening credit lending, and won’t stop the market correction/crash. Only takes a small number of sellers to dictate downward prices like the 10% of US crash sellers did.
Relax, it’s just starting , so the crisis is yet to fully play out. The bull is on its knees gasping for what little air is left.
I find that a puzzling comment. Please look again at the graph https://goo.gl/images/Er8DCi
The interest portion of the payment has fallen, from 6% in the 90s to 3.5% today. The equity portion of the payment has risen, from 0.5% to 3.5% -which is good news. People paying down more equity is good news and shouldn’t be worrying to you, so why have you commented that you’re worried because the ratio (interest+equity)/income hasn’t changed?
CMHC makes the same point as I’ve just done in the article, pointing out that the FALLING interest portion of the payment has been good news, not worrying news. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/housing-observer-online/2018-housing-observer/household-debt-income-ratio-near-record-high “The increasing share of income that goes to repayment of the principal represents equity accumulation, while the share that goes to interest is the cost of credit.”
The worrisome thing for me is that the ratio has not changed in spite of declining interest rates.This does not bode well in an environment where interest rates are predicted to increase substantially. The fact that a lot of this debt is long term mortgage debt is not good news. When mortgage payments increase as much as 50% upon renewal then the serious belt tightening starts for a lot of families and that effects the overall economy.
What remains to be seen is what percentage of particularly first time buyers will be pushed into selling.
In spite of all the whining, the implementation of the stress test might well prove to be the saving grace for the economy preventing a total catastrophe instead of just a bad situation.
I find that most people really neither understand or appreciate the significance of the velocity of money. Increasing interest rates reduce velocity and that produces a major multiplier effect on the economy.
Happy new year to one and all by the way.
It’s stable because it’s an average for existing and new owners. The % has been going down for existing owners due to declining interest rates while it’s been going up for new owners in spite of falling interest rates. So what happens when the interest rates cycle turns around?
I could also add that it’s another Canada-wide average that is meaningless for Victoria anyway, but others have pointed that out in the past and it hasn’t stopped you.
Patrick: If you are looking for a suite free SFH home ours will probably be on the market this spring or summer. It is an elegant old house, but really updated, that is perfect for a family,
IMO, the elephant-asset in the room people are missing when they read the average Victoria household has a debt to income ratio of 180% is…. that includes what they owe on their HOUSE!
Sounds scary, average family income $100k, average debt $180k, but oh… that includes a house. Only 65% of households own of course, so adjust those figures if you want. Still astounding that you read that indebted number from many sources and they never mention,… oh that includes paying off all house debt!
anyways .. since we are on the processes of display numbers and graphs ..
the third graph in Patricks link is interesting in regards to Auto Debt …. you know what that means ? .. hooray … bike lanes …
Nope. These are free Public Service Announcements. Thank me ten years after you snap up one of the dwindling supply of actual suite-free SFH in Victoria.
And, to be clear, as I’ve said many times before, I am not involved in any part of the RE or related industry in any way. Just a happy long-time Victoria homeowner.
Patrick,
Working overtime on a Sunday. You get paid double time or just time and a half?
average net worth is a joke for how much money most people have … what is the median net worth?
back to service debt ratio – you can find more information here
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110006501
Assets and net worth (assets-debts) also skyrocketing, and only 50% in real estate. Victoria average household net worth $1.1m, and that’s assets-debts. That and the 6% average mortgage service to DISPOSABLE income amount for Canadians explains the almost zero rate of mortgage delinquencies in Victoria (1/1500). People expecting mortgage rate increases to topple all this better settle in for a long wait, including forever.
thanks Patrick for showing the graph .. but debt service ratio is different from debt to income ratio… ..debt to income ratio has be sky rocketing … you can look at the article you just quoted
.. now the debt service ratio will increase when your term ends and interest increases … fun times a head
Note that the important point in my previous post is not the absolute number 6% of disposable income going to mortgages. Because that is an average of all households, including renters and those with no mortgages.
The important thing is the STABILITY of that number. Hawk tells us we, as a nation, are hurtling off into a debt filled abyss. But there you have the average of 6% of disposable income going to mortgages. omg, what if it doubles, then average Canadian is 12% of income going to mortgages.
Of course some with huge mortgages would suffer, but since that number 6% has been stable, the same risks existed since the 90s for those over-indebted.
Homeowners, raise a glass! Canadian home owners, collectively, are according to CMHC, less-mortgage-indebted-than-you-think!
Where’s the crisis bears? The total cost of mortgage payments relative to total disposable income has been stable, and hovered around the 6% mark for the past 30 years!
Maybe the bears can explain this one to me. We are told endlessly about the rising unaffordability of houses to crisis levels.
But here we have a CMHC report that challenges that.
It points out the Canadian household mortgage debt service ratio has been a remarkably stable 6%. And best news of all (for owners), the equity portion of that 6% has been rising steadily (due to lower rates). And the “down the drain” interest portion has been falling.
Look at the graph here. It goes back to 1990s, and things were WORSE in the 90s than now! Poor Boomers in the 90s had it tougher than the Millenials do now!
https://goo.gl/images/Er8DCi
And the article here
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/housing-observer-online/2018-housing-observer/household-debt-income-ratio-near-record-high
Let CMHC explain it to you….
“Servicing costs of mortgage debt relatively constant
Even though mortgage debt has risen, the share of household income needed to service mortgage debt has not varied dramatically over the last several years. The increasing share of income that goes to repayment of the principal represents equity accumulation, while the share that goes to interest is the cost of credit. The total cost of mortgage payments relative to total disposable income has hovered around the 6% mark for the past 10 years. The interest portion of household mortgage payments has, for the most part, been trending lower for about 25 years (see chart 2 https://goo.gl/images/Er8DCi).”
The solution to the whole problem. Build a city the size of Los Angeles just above Sooke, then everyone from Vancouver, the Canadian prairies and half of China can move here, and there’d be room for us all:
http://mapfrappe.com/?show=56847
This site shows the exact size of two places overlapped on each other. Wow, Los Angeles really is a big place.
Or maybe just build a city the size of Vancouver above Sooke:
http://mapfrappe.com/?show=56848
The headline for this article should really be “RE industry beginning to embrace tech,” but anyway…
Real estate industry poised for a tech disruption in 2019
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-technology-1.4961750
I lived in the core for most of my life as well as owned a house in the core in the past. And, I used to dislike the drive out to the Westshore to visit friends and family. However, I now love the beautiful Westshore (Florence Lake) quiet life and house that we live in, and rarely venture into the downtown core as we have everyday life convenience, lakes, and parks within 5 to 20 minutes walk. We have a car and a truck, but I commute to work in Esquimalt by bicycle that only take 40 minutes (faster on a good day, and downtown would be about an hour or less).
I sometimes think about moving to the Westshore, but damn I couldn’t handle the crawl day in/out – 5 days per week. We could get a full detached house there, instead we will stay in our small, 1100 square foot core townhouse, where we can walk everywhere and only need 1 car. Life is full of choices/trade offs. If I was older/didn’t have a partner who worked a 9-5 in downtown/etc… I might choose differently.
Not everyone, just uppity people who’ve got nothing else going for them. They shit on everything though, so best not to bother with them.
Replying to Viola P.
Regarding the stress test
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/12/24/dec-24-market-update-construction-turns-over/#comment-53985
From the Calgary Sun:
“The stress test forces buyers to qualify for a mortgage at the greater of the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate or two percentage points above their contract rate.
“What I would like to see is a stress test that’s closer to what would be a reasonable market rate,” says Kmiec. “I’d like to see something closer to a market rate. I’ve heard between forty to seventy basis points and it kind of fluctuates depending on what the perception is in the future it will be.”
He does advocate longer mortgage terms and more consideration of the differences between regions.
“Say (Toronto and Vancouver) have one type of rule or will have more flexibility and then outside of the two large market areas you have a different set of rules,” says Kmiec. “I’m willing to be convinced by the evidence and my Liberal colleagues obviously are not because they all voted it down without saying a single word.
“It’s patently unfair we can’t even talk about it, but I’ve tabled a new motion to study mortgages again and I intend to continue this at every single meeting until they basically speak for themselves and actually say something.” ”
https://calgarysun.com/life/homes/liberals-vote-no-to-stress-test-review
The Conservatives want a review of the stress test but are being blocked by the Federal Liberals. This may change as we get closer to the next election. If not vote Conservative in October 2019 and you will most likely see the stress test changed if they win.
Patrick,
In my hood, 4 sfds were just demolished a couple weeks ago, presumably to make way for multifamily. I don’t think there would be much sfd construction in Victoria, Oak Bay or Esquimalt…I haven’t looked but would guess most starts are multifamily.
Maybe sfds are still being built in parts of Saanich?
The majority of sfd construction is in the Westshore, which everyone on this site shits on and considers unsuitable for habitation. Too bad. Royal Bay, for example, looks like it’ll be pretty nice when completed.
Anyway I think net new out there would be high because most of that construction happens on vacant land.
Dad,
Yes that’s a good site with lots of current information.
Showing 775 SFH starts out of 3,498 total. That’s 22% of new units being SFH. Our existing stock of housing is 42% SFH.
But how many core Victoria SFH starts are tear-downs, with no net gain to SFH stock? It’s easy to find a tear down SFH anywhere in core Victoria and build a new SFH or multi-unit. Not so easy to find an empty lot or subdivide. For example, my core Victoria neighbourhood has seen about 10 new SFH, all after tear downs.
Is your neighbourhood different?
The census numbers are reporting tiny NET gains in SFH in GV during 2011-2016.
But, agreed, they seem to be whacko as discussed.
Look at your graph. It shows a big explosion in apartment construction (green) and a recent actual decrease in SFH construction (blue). Looks like current SFH construction is at the levels in the 1980s and has been constant for the last 50 years, despite an almost doubling in population.
Moreover, many of the Construction units are also “tear-downs” destroying an existing SFH home. What should be a revelation to you, is that your graph doesn’t show the number of SFH tear-downs going on to produce the graph that you are showing,
Your graph is showing housing supply. That’s not the same thing as housing demand. People (including you, Josh and many others here) are looking to buy a SFH. We are not building enough net SFH. Your graph shows about 500 per year. SFH tear downs may be half of that, leaving 250 net SFH. Many outside of core Victoria in your “no-go” Langford. Census figures from 2011 to 2016 that I posted below (# 53987) are far more dramatic, and perhaps unbelievable (ie explained by something else), but show only 27 net SFH in Greater Victoria per year.
In any event, if you think inadequate net supply of SFH is not relevant to someone like you wanting to buy a SFH, go ahead. Just remember that this site is called “house” hunt because the family dream is to own a SFH , not a suite or a condo. That dream of owning a SFH house hasn’t changed just because they’ve switched to building more profitable multi family units.
You’re playing a game of musical chairs, with the chairs being available SFH. More players are joining the game, but the number of SFH “chairs” is not increasing as fast. And the game of desirable core Victoria (areas like “Oak Bay”) SFH musical chairs doesn’t even seem to have any net new seats added period.
Patrick,
I think you’re probably right that the sfd census numbers are whacko because of basement suites.
According to CMHC there were around 900 sfd starts in greater Vic in each of the previous two years. Not sure what the net numbers are, but obviously higher than 25…
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en#Profile/2440/3/Victoria
It’s never a good Idea to rush out and buy at any price. Now you can be patient I believe. However, you don’t have a decade to wait because you know what happens every ten years…. so if you truly do want a SFH in the core then the next few years might be the time to get focused. That affordability chart you referenced also doesn’t have to remain constant. I think there is political will to make it easier to replace SFHs will multi family and this same momentum will also mean more townhouses instead of SFHs in Colwood and Langford.
Apartments have nearly always outmatched SFH’s in starts and by a large margin. It’s not new or a revelation.
It might have impact on multi-decade-long time scales, but it’s not really relevant on a cycle-to-cycle basis to a buyer looking to buy in the here and now. In Leo’s affordability graph you can see the slow affordability deterioration phenomenon at work just like many other cities in North America. But again, that’s been going on since the 1960’s and is far from a reason to rush out and buy at any price today.
We have been actually reducing the number of SFHs over the last decade with adding suites. More and more vintage mansion will turn into condos. Nothing torn down and rebuilt doesn’t have a suite. Also expect more future tear downs in the core to become multi family as the crisis is used to pressure gov to relax zoning etc.
Barrister,
The numbers and census in my post are referring to Greater Victoria – population 367K in 2016. Yes, that includes all those areas you mentioned (Victoria, Langford, saanich etc).
40% of all housing units are SFH, yet the census stats for new builds show nowhere near 40% of new units being SFH. I agree that I expect Oak Bay to be close to zero net new SFH. But not aggregate Greater Victoria. As mentioned, I think these extreme low new net SFH numbers may be due to the census counting things differently between 2011 and 2016 (redefining SFH) – maybe something with a suite.
If it’s correct that the housing stock being built is not matching the existing stock (ie less than 40% new units are SFH, especially in core Victoria), this means more competition to buy relatively fewer SFH in Victoria. That’s irrelevant if you’re looking for a condo, but highly relevant if you want to buy a SFH and your plan is to “prudently/sensibly wait” until SFH prices fall.
Patrick, just for clarity, what area are we talking about for the count of SFH.Is it all of greater Victoria including all of the west shore and the peninsula or is it just City of Victoria and Esquimalt and Oak Bay?
Certainly if it is city of Victoria that fact that we have added few if any SFH does not come as a surprise. We may have added a few SFH because of lots being severed but we have lost a few to duplixs replacing a few houses and a few more to high rises and town houses. Certainly the vast majority of additional housing would have been condos or apartments.
Except for the approx 400 that did in December in Victoria.
It Isn’t Cheaper To Live In The Suburbs
http://www.moneyaftergraduation.com/2015/12/14/it-isnt-cheaper-to-live-in-the-suburbs/
@Hawk
I don’t think there are any bulls left. Bulls buy. No ones buying. The ones who bought in at inflated prices are defending their decisions after the fact, not actively participating any more.
I posted it a week back or so. It said we haven’t even started to feel the real effect yet , just warnings of it coming that the bulls are in full denial about but soon will see their wreckless ways. Debt bombs never end nicely.
From Tomato’s link. Buckle up, the coming year will be very terrifying.
“Conclusion
We can see that the global credit crisis has now been triggered. It always happens at some point anyway. The proximate triggers have been non-monetary, being the combination of President Trump’s fiscal reflation late in the credit cycle, and his imposition of tariffs on imported goods. The weakening of other economies from Trump’s tariff war is an additional factor undermining the global economic outlook.
Given these fiscal developments, the Fed had no option but to seek to urgently normalise interest rates, bringing on the credit crisis.”
@once and future
Yes, it was definitely genius.
With housing being so illiquid I worry that they did too much at once. An article I read recently (can’t find the link) said that it takes about 6 quarters to see the full economic impact of a rate increase. That’s crazy! How many times have we hiked rates in the past six quarters? We haven’t fully realized the economic impact of the first hike let alone all the others.
The housing market is going to implode.
This is super interesting from Ray Dalio if anyone is interested. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/help-put-recent-economic-market-moves-perspective-ray-dalio/?published=t
Zero Hedge – Credit Crisis
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-28/arrival-credit-crisis
@guest_53846
OSFI is an independent agency of the government.
Overly indebted consumers can increase default rates and compromise the integrity of the financial system.
Canadians taking on too much debt is definitely their problem, especially in an environment of increasing interest rates and what CMHC believes could be a deflationary housing market.
@guest_53914
BOC is keeping interest rates low because of the economic impact of raising them at this time. The rates being low is a function of the economy being weak, not BOCs confidence in Canadians ability to service debt. BOC bought 250 million in CMHC backed mortgage bonds because they don’t set the interest rates for mortgages, the bond market does and as Canada’s interest rate deviates from the FED interest rates for mortgages will increase no matter what BOC does.
They bought such a small amount (250 million) because they will ramp it up over the next 18-24 months and don’t want to freak the market out by buying billions worth all at once.
Patrick – the house remains a sfh. The suite is a new dwelling, an apartment. But the system will only countregistered legal suites.
On the census SFH numbers (see my post below) almost staying flat from 2011 to 2016, maybe StatsCan in 2016 are not counting SFH with a suite as a SFH, and count them instead as “Apartment or flat in a duplex”. There’s likely been a big increase in SFH that have suites, reducing the number of SFH in the census data, and increasing the number of duplexes. if so, the number of “pure” SFH, without a suite is a static or decreasing number for Greater Victoria.
While LF is correct that the main aim of the stress test was to protect the banks, it is still the single most brilliant policy tool the feds have come up with for cooling the housing market.
We get the effect of raising rates, without actually raising rates for everyone outside the overheated housing market. Absolutely what was needed, even if on the surface that wasn’t the argument.
Now that rates are also rising, things are a bit more pinched, though. I will be fascinated to see who applies political pressure against the stress test if rates keep rising.
Viola: Predicting when the stress test might be modified or removed is next to impossible but if I had to guess it will be in place for at least another three to five years.
If that were the case then why would the government kept interest rate low, as well as buying bonds?
However I do agree with a defensive position of not spend as much as one could stretch.
I could have purchased much more house than the one I’m currently living in, but I opted for a house at 58% of what the bank willing to give me as a loan. Part of me glad that I took the defensive err on the side of caution (lower stress), but if I was a gambler and purchased at 100% of the loan I might come out a head much more if I sell today.
Then the country, not than the country ( from previous post)
Lobster, tuna, red wine feast, attention to detail a bit fuzzy
OSFI is not the government and doesn’t respond to issues affecting the consumer. They exist to protect the banking infrastructure, ie, to ensure prudent lending among banks.
It makes sense – house prices are more or less a function of what banks are willing to lend. Lately, that’s been a very great deal. Today, not so much, and the housing market is responding accordingly.
I don’t see any reason why they would do that. I think the stress test would be removed when affordability improves significantly, if we solidly enter a rate lowering period, or if the federal government changes (maybe). I would imagine conservatives still see the wisdom in the stress test, but god knows they’d screw us all over and get rid of it if they thought it could buy them some votes.
Having 20% down doesn’t automatically mean you can afford something. The costs of carrying a $640k mortgage are stupid high and are only going to increase in the coming years.
@guest_53985
The stress test is the gov’t regulating the amount of debt Canadians could take on for a SFH because they were pigs at the trough.
Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.
Is stats Canada census data from 2011 to 2016 saying that Greater Victoria has only added 27 SFH (detached) houses per year for a population growth of 4,500 people per year?
I’ve asked a few times here if anyone has data on the number of single family detached homes (SFH) in Greater Victoria. No replies.
My theory is that many people are specifically looking to buy a SFH, and not an apartment, duplex, attached, or condo. And I don’t think that many net new SFH are being built. Because a tear-down and a build nets zero new SFH. Yet the stats we see (for example in LeoS post above) are for “housing units”, which of course include apartments.
So when I look at the stats can census data, they do track Greater Victoria total housing units and SFH is shown too. Great! But they show an alarmingly small net growth of SFH in Greater Victoria. The census data (provided below, with links) on this is, frankly, too alarming to be believed, so there may be another explanation for it (such as different metrics).
So could someone explain this census data to me.
As I see it from the links below.
In 2011 census greater Victoria had 153,325 housing units. 64,100 of those were SIngle-family detached. About 40% of all units are detached houses. OK seems about right.
In 2016 census, greater Victoria had 162,720 housing units. 64,235 of those were SFH (SIngle-family detached).
Total housing units went up (162,720-153,325)= 9,325 over 5 years, or 1,879 units per year. Sounds right and matches LeoS charts above.
But SFH went up only 135 units (64,235-64,100) which is 27 houses per year. WTF?
Our census population in 2016 was 367k and 344k in 2011, so we rose by 23K people.
23,000 people need more than 135 SFH.
That low SFH growth number seems preposterous. 27 net new SFH per year? Since 40% of all units are SFH, we expect 40% of the new units per year to be SFH, which would be 800 units per year, not 27!
Yet there it is, in the census stats can links below, and can someone explain what’s happened? Has there been a stats can reclassification of definition of SFH, or have I been dipping into Santa’s wine or what?
Greater Victoria 2011 census profile
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CMA&Code1=935&Geo2=PR&Code2=59&Data=Count&SearchText=Victoria&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&Custom=&TABID=1
greater Victoria 2016 census profile
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CMACA&Code1=935&Geo2=PR&Code2=01&Data=Count&SearchText=Victoria&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All
Viola P,
Prediction. House prices in this country are totally fucking insane. If the federal government attempts to slow or stop the current correction that is occurring on a national basis – which would include getting rid of the stress test somehow – than the country as a whole is completely screwed.
Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all on this blog, bears, bulls, and others alike. The winds are a changing out there and yes, now is a risky time to buy for sure.
For those who have been around for a while, I’d like to know your predictions on how/when the government will get rid of the stress test. We have a big downpayment (of 20% on a house of up to 800K) but because of the stress test we can only get approved for 600K. It is also because I’m a contract worker so I don’t have a regular income. If the stress test was removed tomorrow we’d still be screwed since prices would jump up too fast for us to catch up. But, I’m thinking that when the time comes for getting rid of the stress test, it will be done in steps, and the first step will be to get rid of it for those with 20% or bigger downpayments, which would be good for us since there probably isn’t enough people for it to cause a significant upward disturbance in prices while still allowing us to get in to the next bracket. Curious to hear about other people’s thoughts on this, if anyone cares to share.
🙂
Wasn’t it you Barrister who just told us all your big boy banking buddies are moving their cash out of the country ? Now that’s the ultimate Grinch if you ask me. 😉
Santa needs to knock off the booze. No one will be saved with the historical debt levels off the charts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELn-1iP3BDs
The US attempted that too a decade ago in an attempt to backstop the collapsing mortgage market and protect borrowers from spiking rates.
@guest_53945
BOC just purchased mortgage bonds for the first time ever which is QE.
https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/11/23/bank-of-canada-expands-balance-sheet-list-to-mortgage-bonds.html
***mortgagor omg so wine drunk
Ok, I wasn’t quite clear.
Any plans to significant increase rates (eg Volcker) will be preceded by forcing the vast majority of current mortgagees into fixed long term mortgages first to avoid catastrophic economic consequences.
Hawk and Josh…
World powers won’t let what you want happen happen…QE impossible in the future without significant rate increases but significant rate increases are impossible without blowing up asset prices…too much collateral damage. They will do their best to lower debt loads by lowering the value of money…Canada will transition as many people as possible to fixed long term mortgages in the next couple years. Yes, sorry, it will happen. Those that got lucky will never pay the piper. Look at typical mortgages in Switzerland to see what we might have here. Good luck!
Good points. Thanks.
Thanks QT for the permit application link … still boggles my mind to why one will pay 1.4% +$100 for a permit.. i understand a flat rate fee for covering documentation cost .. but what does the 1.4% covers?
… this is why people do DIY renos with no permits…
i might be wrong and any opinions are welcome as learning opportunities
What’s happening S of the border with house prices. Bill McBride aka Calculated Risk makes predictions for 2019 – https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/12/question-9-for-2019-what-will-happen.html.
Why do you want to add a second tank? Cheapest and most likely most economical would be to just replace the existing one. Then there is minimal/no electrical work and minimal/no plumbing. If you need more HW then go for a larger tank (Marathon are half-decent electric ones).
You are right that it make more sense to go with gas since the average 40 to 60 gallon gas tank (38,000 to 50,000 Btu) heat recovery is 3.7 to 4.9 times more than standard electric (3000 Watts). Therefore a single 60 gallon gas HW tank can easily accommodate 7-8 or more users compare to 5-6 users on an electric tank. Commercial HW gas tank of 75 to 80 gallon tend to be 75,000 to 80,000 Btu or roughly 7.3 to 7.8 time the recovery rate of standard residential electric HW tank. And, gas is way cheaper to operate compare to electric. However, the resident must have access to gas, and the HW tank location must have access to outside air for venting.
Dual HW tank in series is quite simple. Cold water come into the first tank in cold port (blue), then connect the hot port (red) from the first tank to the cold port on the second tank, and then connect the hot port of the second tank to the household existing hot water supply.
Off the top of my head I can’t say if the resident may fall under multi dwellings/commercial (high water usage more than the large 60 gallon HW) as that would throw another wrench into the equation. It would bump up the safety requirement for gas and permit/s, however DIY can apply for home owner permit (see links below).
https://www.victoria.ca/assets/Departments/Planning~Development/Permits~Inspections/Application~Forms/Plumbing%20Permit%20Application%20Homeowner%2004.09.2014.pdf
https://www.crd.bc.ca/docs/default-source/building-inspection-pdf/biappendixd.pdf?sfvrsn=72518dc9_4
If you find a SFH in the core with 5 beds for $500k, you let me know and I’ll snatch it up real quick.
My husband is an electrician, certified and licensed. He said you need a plumber to instal the tank in line. Also gas heaters are much more economical. That is if you have gas available. If you just want the electrical connection doing he could look at the job for you. Up to you just a suggestion.
Each to their own. Some people would spend 2 mil or more on a condo in downtown Victoria, and other would prefer to spend that out in the stick like Metchosin or Saanich (Prospect Lake/Beaver Lake). For me, my paradise would be in Esquimalt anywhere South of Munro St. in between Kinver St. and Fraser St. by Saxe Point Park, because it is a beautiful and quiet area that is close to downtown.
I think the bears here would still complaints if 1550 Rockland price drop 75%, because it would still be well above their budget.
I wouldn’t get just an electrician for this type of job. It make sense to call a licensed electrical company like Emery Electric, etc…, because you will need to run a additional 12 gauge independence home run wire back to the panel.
IMHO, most insurance companies would try to weasel out of paying if there is a large disaster. And, insurance companies would bury claimants with court and legal time for years if not decades to avoid full payouts. That said, there is a standard 5% deductible hence most house damage in Victoria need to be greater than $30,000 to make it worth the claim.
Looks like it was a bear trap after all..
Hawk: I see that you are as cheery and dramatic as always. Why do I keep picturing the Grinch?
I’m in the same boat as Josh, this is a 2 year event, (give or take a few months). The bulls are having a tougher time denying the overwhelming evidence of unsustainable debt levels stacking up and much tighter credit lending not seen in decades.
They stay in total denial other than the “it will go down abit” to try and save face from the inevitable but they don’t really mean it. There is a major geo-political war beginning which will create major volatility we’ve never seen since the 81 crash and will far exceed it IMHO.
I bet if a big one hits odds are the insurance company will screw you anyway. Like the thousands in NZ who still don’t have their claims resolved eight years later…
@guest_53884
“past performance is not a predictor of future results night vale”
Bit off the topic, any recommendation for an reliable electrician please?I need to install an electric water heater along with my existing one.( in in series)
Thank you
Jerry =My house insurance is with TD and earthquake is mandatory and not optional. They where still cheaper than the other insurers without earthquake. I looked at the earthquake maps and was shocked to see how much of the city is really vulnerable in a big quake like Christchurch had in New Zealand.
One of the concerns that people dont consider is that the earthquake insurance only couvers the building and not the land. If the land liquefies during an earthquake it is often unbuildable afterwards for years. Even with insurance you could take a real hit in the pocket book since the land value is more than the structure value in a lot of cases. Maybe Rockland is not such a bad choice after all since most of it sits on solid granite.
1550 Rockland was seriously overpriced in the first place. I think they will be lucky to get 1.9 for it but I am just judging from the interior pictures. But my estimates are often way off.
Personally, I would advise anybody with a 2 million budget to buy in Oak Bay rather than the City of Victoria. But I might be influenced by the fact that two of neighbours are seriously looking at Oak Bay properties and they are both long term residents of Rockland.
And now for something completely different…..
House insurance comes up soon so just wondering what current thinking is about earthquake insurance. I think last year that portion of the premium was somewhere around $500. What percentage of owners would you think carry the coverage?
For a long time, Victoria real estate has had a pesky habit of not deflating all that much.
Yup, that sounds like a regular weekend for my entourage on any given weekend…. ahhh, the good old days….
.. yes, but there was also a negative side 🙂
—— ===
… * Hunter S Thomson https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/487242-the-music-business-is-a-cruel-and-shallow-money-trench
I’m not out to offend some people here. I just want to point out that some of the “perfect” area today grew out from the crappy past. Just as Esquimalt and Westshore will be a nice place to live in the near future. And, recently Sidney shook off the “skidney” notation to become a beautiful town.
Below is a dark past within Beacon Hill Park boundary. Beacon Hill Park History by Janis Ringuette. http://beaconhillparkhistory.org/contents/chapter16.htm
Theft, vandalism, and drugs were a regular occurrence in Beacon Hill Park and the surrounding area and that include Cook St. Village.
Gay men meet in the Southeast Woods
Numerous robberies and six incidents of indecent acts on children of both sexes had occurred in that area in the last few months, according to a police report… The police blamed the homosexuals for being “victims of robbery” as well as for “acts toward male children of tender years.” (Times Colonist, August 15, 1979)
Policemen battered
Two policemen called to deal with a disturbance near the Heywood Avenue softball diamond were beaten by five youths in July. (Times Colonist, July 12, 1981)
Aviary birds slaughtered
Forty-eight birds in the Beacon Hill Park aviary were slaughtered during a weekend in August. (Times Colonist, August 18, 1981)
Dead woman found in Park
The decomposed body of a woman was found in Beacon Hill Park in November by Park gardener Al Cunningham. (Times Colonist, November 17, 1983)
Woman attacked
a man threw a 74 year old woman into Goodacre Lake. The man, naked to the waist and dripping wet, punched the woman and yelled, “Do you think I’m crazy?” (Times Colonist, December 7, 1983)
Horse patrol in Park
The Victoria Police Department began an experimental mounted patrol in Beacon Hill Park in 1984. (Times Colonist, June 9, 1984)
Body found in Park
A dead body was found behind the Cameron Bandshell on May 2. Victoria police identified him as Randolph Bernard Patterson, age 40, of “no fixed address.” They determined he died accidentally. (Times Colonist, May 3, 1985)
Southeast woods or another big lake?
Constance Hawley wrote the newspaper to “promote more public discussion on plans” for Beacon Hill Park after the Fairfield Observer published several articles advocating the Blair Plan of 1889 be completed… She indicated the real problem the neighbours were trying to solve was the wooded area being a rendezvous for homosexuals. (Times Colonist, June 13, 1986)
Speakers Corner revived
Victoria lawyer Doug Christie proposed the Speakers Corner after two Victoria speeches by Ernst Zundel well known for his attempts to discredit mainstream historical accounts of the World War II holocaust, was convicted of publishing false statements. (Times Colonist, August 1, 1986).
He was jailed several times: in Canada for publishing literature “likely to incite hatred against an identifiable group”, and on charges of being a threat to national security.
Long-term Policies for Beacon Hill Park
Recommendations for the Southeast Woods area included renaming Lovers Lane to “promote its value as a safe place to stroll through the woods rather than a name that implies it is a place for lovers.” The new name proposed was “Woodland Trail.” More toilets were recommended to discourage people from using the bushes “which results in an unsanitary and unaesthetic condition.” “Since wooded areas in cities can be havens to socially undesirable and even criminal behaviours.” (Times Colonist, January 29, 1987)
Body found in Park
The body of a man was found hanging in the Southeast Woods in November. “We are treating the incident as a suicide,” Police Sergeant Doug Slievert said. The unidentified dead man, about age 40, was found in the woods near the flagpole. (Times Colonist, November 27, 1987)
Dead man found in Park
A dead man was found in Beacon Hill Park on July 18, 1988… Victoria regional coroner Darryl Stephens ruled the man, aged between 55 and 65, died of a drug overdose ten days before he was found. (Times Colonist, April 19, 1989)
Naturalists organized to preserve Southeast Woods
In 1989, a few vocal Cook Street residents demanded City Council and police stop alleged gay sexual liaisons, sex trade transactions and drinking parties in the southeast woods… pressure increased on City officials to take action in the Cook Street-Dallas Road corner. (Times Colonist, April 18, 1989)
Murder and police report
A police search found an Ontario man dead in Beacon Hill Park on June 12. Following a tip, the police located 26 year-old John Geroux “200 metres east of Douglas Street in the northern part of Beacon Hill Park.” He had been strangled. Daniel Dube was charged with second-degree murder. (Times Colonist, June 15, 1989)
Sex offender photographs girls
The newspaper called him the “Beacon Hill Park pervert” and reported he took “crotch shots” of girls playing on the swings. (Times Colonist, July 27, 1989)
“Gay-bashing” in the Southeast Woods
Police received three reports of attacks on gay males by youths in the Southeast Woods during the spring of 1990. (Times Colonist, April 7, 1990)
“Take Back the Night” march up Beacon Hill
The annual “Take Back the Night” march took a new route in 1991…
We want to make a powerful statement by taking back Beacon Hill Park, which has been taken away from us by society’s violence against women. Women do not go into Beacon Hill Park after dark because they do not feel safe… (Times Colonist, September 17, 1991)
Volunteer patrol to deter “gay-bashing”
A volunteer group of five or six unarmed people planned to patrol Beacon Hill Park’s “dark areas in the evenings,” (Times Colonist, December 6, 1994)
Myrealtycheck says 1550 Rockland dropped $600k (22%). If it didn’t sell in September, that’s quite a motivated seller.
I too traipsed ( more like ran or pushed a stroller) around Fairfield, Rockland and Beacon Hill Park.
I missed all the mayhem, murders and crack.
Downtown was pretty scuzzy with aggressive panhandlers back then. I got yelled at and harassed quite often waiting for the bus. Other than that nada for me.
So maybe I just missed the action I don’t know.
All of Victoria was a dark grungy crap hole full of degenerates, gamblers, druggies, prostitutes and criminals. It started to gentrify in the 20’s.
I lived in Fairfield in the 90’s and I admit it was my crime syndicate and homosexual associates that really brought the place down during that decade….
I got that, but I don’t think that should stop you buying. I predict (at least hope for your sake) in the next year you will:
The “hopefully not for much longer” was in reference to the topic of the post. There’s a huge number of condos coming to the market in 2019 and much of them are rentals.
Ditto. I’ve pondered publishing my “mortgage calculator of doom” which is now much more than a mortgage calculator. It plots the next 30 years of buy vs rent. I can see why people think buying is always such a brilliant move – when the gains are on the full value of the house instead of just the downpayment, the return looks amazing. That goes both ways though.
The stores are still old and dank, but now it’s trendy. Kids these days love the dank.
My plan is unchanged. If something that makes sense for me is in my budget, it will be seriously considered. I’ve been wanting to buy since 2014 but nothing has made sense. For the love of all that’s holy, don’t tell me I should have bought back then. My income and budget were a fraction of what they are now, and the price gains were so steep they outpaced my entire income let alone my disposable after-tax income. If nothing sensible comes up here within the next year or 2, I’ll seriously consider moving back to Ontario where I can afford so much more. That’s always been the plan.
Do I seriously have to spell it out for you? My position that the local market will correct over the next 2 years. I’ll emphasize the part of that sentence which gives it context. over the next 2 years. 2 years is not “long term”. Did anything click there for you?
Grace. That was around the same time as the famous Oak Bay riots. Uplands was considered a virtual no go zone. Even the police avoided some parts.
You may be right, but…..
I hold out hope that josh is not sitting around waiting for his below market rent to fall another $100.
Especially since he’s the guy who said this here only a few days ago ..,.
I agree, and without us to come here and spew out our stupidity, you’d have no reason to completely waste your time doing the same. So what do you think about RE prices in Victoria? Going up? Or going down?
If you constantly obsess (not to be conflated with frequenting this site and reading Leo S’ lovely posts) about local real estate prices you need to move ASAP. I grew up on a farm in India and moved with $0 and no understanding of English so don’t make excuses…it’s not beyond your abilities… if you argue that you “can’t” you just have a weak spirit and fear being uncomfortable. Fretting or worse yet, obsessing, about something you cannot control is pathetic and beyond unhealthy. Bears and bulls alike are paragons of stupidity. Don’t label yourself as one or the other…it’s a bloody useless thing to do. The options are binary…don’t overthink. Participate or don’t. In making your decision, utilize your own research or follow someone else’s…but for the love of God don’t make any of this an extension of your ego. Having an emotional attachment to a prediction is to inch towards insanity. You as an individual market participant have an infinitesimal impression on the overall market. It’s absurd to me how sure so many of you are about the future of the market much less the current state of things.
Relax.
I had great luck delivering presents this year…thanks for asking.
QT is right. James Bay was a shithole in the 80’s. Rented a couple of places that were less than stellar with shady neighbors and tons of drug activity.
Cook St Village was grungy. The stores were old and dank. Beacon Hill had its shady areas and still does by Cook St. Fairfield has it’s nice spots but is clearly overvalued for what it is.
I’d think in context, he’s saying that he hopes that rental prices will drop. If the market continues to decline, vacancies will eventually rise. All other things equal, that is downward pressure on rents.
Going to open houses doesn’t mean anything. I went to one a few weeks ago and several this year. Sometimes it’s nice to “see” the market rather than just looking at data on a screen.
@ Grace https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/12/24/dec-24-market-update-construction-turns-over/#comment-53938
The link below is one example, but I can provide more if you have the need to know.
Undercover work amassed enough proof for charge in 1983 strangling
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/leads-in-slaying-went-cold-with-suspect-s-suicide-1.8561
There are several murders/death at Beacon Hill Park and Fairfield/Cook St. Village, as well as stabling, sexual asaults, etc… and multitude with drugs related problems. The myriad of problems in the area is lesser at the present, but still there.
All of those condos on Fairfield and Linden once were asbestos/crackshacks (2 of the houses were my friends parents houses) that were demolished to become condos.
My sisters, and brother inlaws lived between Cook St. Village and James Bay for over a decade, and in the 80s between Oak Bay and James Bay was my stomping ground during my teens and early 20s.
One can choose to put on rose glasses or see life as pointless, unfair, and horrible.
You’re the guy running around to open houses, aren’t you about to buy?
You did say only two days ago: “Josh: I’m paying $1280 for my 1 bedroom and that’s still below market price. Hopefully not for much longer.”
I took your comment that you’re renting “for not much longer” to mean that you’re planning to take my “crap advice” and buy soon. No?
Could it be that some people were uninformed out of touch of the inner city during that time?
What a bunch of nonsense about Fairfield and Rockland in the 80 and 90s. And Cook Street Village dangerous for women and children? What?
My family has a long history with the area. My mum was born and raised in Victoria and lived in Fairfield in the 30s,up until 1958. She raves about what a lovely family area it was then. I lived in Fairfield in the 80s and 90s and it wasn’t much different than it is today. No crime to speak of and just a lovely community feel. It was more diverse in terms of income than Oak Bay and probably still is somewhat.
Anyway those two areas have never been shithole parts of the city! Lol.
They are not the best area in Victoria at the present, but just to let you know Fairfield and Rockland wasn’t the upscale area as what it is now, because it was literally the shit hole “asbestos/crack shacks” in the 80s and early 90s. At that time much of James Bay was known as the rat infested druggies hangout. Cook St. Village in the past was known as a no go zone for single women and kids at night. It was the drugs and crime ridden area that was next to make shift (politically incorrectly named F_g Forest) tent city for almost 2 decades.
Yes they had their headline ass backwards. Investors wouldn’t be worried about bears being trapped. That would mean a mass short squeeze.
Precisely. Well said.
TripleA, have banks lowered the mortgage rates yet ? Borrowing is still the same level of stress testing no matter where the rates go. In a credit squeeze, everyone is scrutinized when a bubble is about to let off major gas.
:large
Bank of Canada 5 year has dropped from approx 2.5% in Late Sept to 1.91%?
The benchmark 5 year Fixed seems like it hasn’t budged from 3.7% in that time.
That should create better buying conditions, better for sellers, more liquidity perhaps, and better for those looking to change financing.
Patrick, I agree 100%.
Medical costs and CPP are set to increase exponentially. We need the input side to keep going. Lord help us if we become a have Not province.
Josh, I agree with that. The buy now or never is garbage advice. However it’s different for everyone in different circumstances.
I’m a big fan of Excel. If I was looking to buy my first condo/house I would work out the costs myself. Not using a calculator that someone else has made. Compare the two sides. I think it’s much cheaper to rent right now but income is a huge part of it as well.
$1500 rent/month without any increase is $18k per year, $90k over 5 years. On the other side you have property taxes and mortgage costs. It’s not a simple conclusion but waiting until things stabilize is probably a very good bet.
That’s precisely our point. The run-up in ’16 and ’17 was unsustainable and in the short-term, that bubble is going to deflate. Hence why your “buy now no matter what” rhetoric is crap advice.
Let’s hope today is the bear trap…
You are correct! Bad mistake by marketwatch.
Countries like Japan, with an aging population and no (or negative) population growth have seen almost no growth in GDP, incomes, and a huge growth in government debt. My opinion is that with our aging population, we do need population growth (of young people) to work in the economy to provide the services, grow the economy, pay off the debt and pay for the growing entitlements that largely go to the seniors.
I don’t think that’s quite what I was asking.
Just the volatility that comes with a bear market. The bulls think a one day pump that came via pension funds is the worst is over. I hope it is, but I think it has a long way to go.
Assest price resets from stocks to houses is going to be the major theme for 2019. “Credit squeeze” will be the catch phrase as well. The bank doesn’t give out free money forever.
ICYMI why the markets went up yesterday, it was a one day wonder, giving half back today so far. Did you buy those select gold and silver stocks yet ? I’m in the green today. 😉
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-26/why-stocks-are-soaring-massive-64-billion-buy-order
To you market aficionados…
Aren’t the authors of this piece actually talking about a bull trap?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-fear-wicked-bear-trap-after-historic-one-day-rebound-2018-12-27
Bearkilla in post holiday blues as his hood has been slashed 15% from the peak with no end in sight. Next 10 years of declining prices in a recession with tightening credit will be very rough reality Very sad.
Well that explains the previous posts of how to buy and go negative equity 30% is a smart move.
When the asbestos/crack shacks come out of the woodpile you know it’s time to dump ASAP. Teardowns at best but rebuild profit in those areas would be minimal if not financial future destroyers for a decade or more.
Barrister,
This topic gets a bit…off topic, naturally. Canada has always had immigration, and in large numbers. Below some links on policy shift. My comment earlier was a ruse. I support our current framework.
A backgrounder:
https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/rachel-decoste/canada-immigration_b_4747612.html
Some common myths:
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.macleans.ca/news/canada/nothing-to-write-home-about/amp/
Canadian GDP:
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/gross-domestic-product
**Growth is a very contentious issue but our economy requires growth, at a municipal, provincial and national level. Growth to fund public projects. To build Hospitals, Schools. To grow CPP. To build Infrastructure. To support wages in line with inflation.
I had to scroll down to see where you got that number from. I only use that figure as it is close to the average homeowner HH income; I’m not the type that would go and tell a public forum what my personal HH annual is.
Thanks for those listings “QT”. I’ll check them out. A family member is looking in this price range. What we are finding is that this price range is selling quickly. Often offers are already on the one’s that catches our eye and it is surprising how many people are viewing the homes. (When priced right).
I also find it interesting that agents often don’t know much about the house. I was told by one that he really is only there to help us through the legal paperwork. I’ve bought several homes from private sellers over the years and don’t see the agent as that role. (Having a good lawyer is important.) Having a good agent that knows the house and the market is important to me as back up and confirmation that I might not have missed anything.
I also like to look around at houses myself. An agent doesn’t know what I am looking for because….. often…. I don’t even know what I am looking for myself. By looking around myself, I get a good sense of what’s out there and I might see something that is much different than what I thought might be what I was looking for. For example: I might not have considered a more pricer option but realize that the numbers might work better because of the rental options or something else on it. So….my point is….I like to look myself and not have an agent feed me options. That way I get a much better overview.
It is just how my brain works:)
I’ve had agents actually get mad at me and insist that I get an agent to find me properties.
Things have sure changed over the years.
TripleA: This argument that population growth is needed for the economy to grow is absolutely false. The only ones that need population growth is rich developers. This is wrong on so many levels yet keeps getting tossed out as if it was some sort of axiom.
But you have put out the theory that population increases are vital for prosperity so now prove the argument.
Fabulous news. You, as a two income couple, ($100k,), barely out of U Vic., and you tell us it’s absolutely possible for you “buy now”. Looks to me like you’re in great shape.
LF, I don’t always agree with your opinions, but I always enjoy your well-argued posts. This one was gold…
Bungalow in Victoria. (Twenty minute bike ride to downtown Victoria)
https://www.casalova.com/for-sale/75-regina-ave-victoria-bc-v8z-1j2-401602?latitude=48.4542993&longitude=-123.3825779&transactionType=SALE&utm_
Amazing value.
823 Ellery St. list at $479,000 and it is within 10 minute bike ride to downtown via the E&N Rail trail or Galloping Goose trail.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20176706/3-bedroom-single-family-house-823-ellery-st-victoria-old-esquimalt
934 Lyall St. list at $535,000 is in a quiet neighborhood that is within 15 minute bike ride to downtown, or an hour walk on the beautiful/peaceful Songhees Walkway.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20083806/3-bedroom-single-family-house-934-lyall-st-victoria-old-esquimalt
However, I do not think the above examples qualify for the average bear wanted list, because they are fixer upper starter homes and nowhere near James Bay/Fairfield/Oak Bay.
If you’re mad about immigration than you should blame the parents of the 70’s and 80’s for not having more children.
Having children is an option. Just as it is to not. They are expensive. But so are the cars, hobbies and other things people spend money on in the absence of. I pretty much learned to save more and be more frugal when we started having kids.
The Canadian economy requires growth to survive.
What’s the mood out there for forenters? Another year of not buying bears. It’s gotta be depressing to realize that it’s been over a decade of wasting your life. I do hope you have a happy 2019 and finally buy but we all know that’s highly unlikely. Too bad bears. Very sad.
Hi “Barrister”…. I just noticed your posting with the beer offer! Very kind of you I must say. Thank you. I’d be happy to meet with a few of the posters on this post one evening soon as a small get together. So let;s think about how to make that happen.
On another note: I find the available houses in and around Victoria very limited if one is looking for a house in the $550,000 – $650,000 range. (anywhere in the Victoria, saanich, esquimalt etc area) In particular… we are looking for one with a “Big” workshop possibility. (Either a separate shed or high basement.)
So the property I asked about earlier, 144 Eberts, is back on the market. MLS: 404308. It would seem the owners chose to lipstick that pig… er… property. I’d asked about Eberts as I saw it was up for rent on UsedVic and that had me wondering what if anything had been done about the property. Will be interesting to see how this one goes.
It’s not current homeowners’ responsibility to ensure that future prospective homeowners are able to afford whatever house, in whatever location, they feel they deserve.
Shelter can be secured by buying or by renting. Can’t afford to buy, or don’t want to? Rent. It still ticks the shelter box.
The cold reality is that real estate isn’t “more than an asset,” at least not anymore. I mean, it may be “more than an asset” for you, Local Fool, but the market cares not what you personally consider to be an asset.
Because one need not own shelter to be able to secure shelter, real estate is an asset, treated similarly to any other. So complaining that a segment of the population can’t afford to buy (certain) real estate is kind of like complaining that a segment of the population can’t afford to buy gold at its current $1200 an ounce. It’s unfortunate that you didn’t or couldn’t buy gold when it was less expensive, but gold prices don’t have to come down to a level that satisfies one particular group of less-financially-able buyers who would otherwise be shut out.
That’s not a problem, just an excuse. Provincial governments – whether Socred, NDP, or BC Liberal – have acted unilaterally on urban growth issues when it suited them.
My bad…..340,000 by 2020.
The problem is not growth, but failure to properly accommodate it.
Problem is you won’t find a consensus on proper accommodation.
They’re not. In 2017 it was under 300K. As to why they are taking that many, I think it has a lot to do with averting a population decline. Anyway, how many immigrants does Victoria get? Has there been a big surge since 2000?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Canada
The problem is not growth, but failure to properly accommodate it. The idea that unremarkable growth in a small metro should inherently be a problem is absurd.
Great points Marko
If people in Langford don’t like the Colwood Crawl, then they need to tell their municipal government to stop approving new apartment complexes on every unprotected patch of ground… All those new developments mean more commuters! And when did local infrastructure gain unlimited capacity? Seems to me that concerns were voiced a long time ago re: things like the Hartland Landfill. Did Harry Potter wave his magic wand or something? It’s time for mayors and councils to say ‘NO MORE!’
I think you need to go a level up and ask why the feds are allowing 400,000 immigrants per year into the country.
I am pro-immigration personally, but I feel if you are anti-development go to the source of the actual problem which is population growth.
400,000 people per year need a place to live whether it is Winnipeg or Langford whether it is ownership or rental, whether it is clearcutting for SFHs or destroying quaint little Victoria with “high-rises.”
When are we doing the 2019 predictions?!
I am not too optimistic that we will get to 390 sales……375 is my best guess and we end the year at 7,150.
No. I finished in 2013, and took a year to pay off debt and to get my career established. My savings began in earnest then, and that is still occurring. Mrs Fool was a few years behind me, but she is now catching up very quickly. It wouldn’t have really been practical or possible to buy in any case. Absolutely possible to buy now, but the market is too risky for our tastes. It’s not too relevant regardless, given that wasn’t the essence of your argument.
Interpretation 1 – Vindictiveness & sour grapes:
“I want people who own homes to suffer because…I don’t own a home. Somewhat like, I want people who own 8K TV’s to suffer because I think 8K TVs are cool but I don’t have one.”
Interpretation 2 – Market reality and sustainable housing markets:
“The excess in the market and the blind confidence that compels people to overextend must have a reality check in order to bring it back into sustainable balance. Somewhat like, I don’t want to see the Fed jumping into the stock market to “prevent” corrections, because all that does is magnify imbalances, rewards bad behaviour while punishing good behaviour, and sets us up for an even more systemic issue later.”
Sure, if you frame it that way, how could I not agree with that general concept. But I don’t recall seeing anyone saying that on here, and we’re talking about more than an “asset”, aren’t we. We’re talking about shelter, and if enough of the population cannot afford it, or can only do so with huge mountains of debt, that is a serious issue whether we adopt an “I bought earlier so everyone that comes later can eat cake” attitude, or not.
IMO, it is a form of entitlement to think that one should, in perpetuity, be able to afford to purchase an asset whose price is dictated by the market.
Born-and-raised Victorians don’t get exclusive first dibs on purchasing local RE (unless I’m reading the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms incorrectly). How it works is some locals can afford to buy here, and others can’t. Some out-of-towners can afford to buy here, and others can’t.
If you grew up here and now make $100K, you can afford to buy in Victoria—but perhaps not in your parents’ neighbourhood or in your top-choice neighbourhood.
I recall you saying you’been out of university for 8-10 years. Is that not correct?
You’ve certainly made it clear in posts that you’ve been following the market closely since 2015, boasting about it in these two recent posts
LocalFool: “Anyone who’s been following the data since ~2015 knows that the above is basically nonsense.”
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/11/14/stress-test-reduces-number-of-highly-indebted-borrowers/#comment-52129
LocalFool” It’s definitely been frantic since about 2015, but before then it was pretty steady especially when you consider the interest rate trend.”
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/11/22/de-seasonalized-sales/#comment-52429
Anyway, maybe buying a house isn’t your main concern, based on your posts here. You’ve been quite clear in your posts that you are here to see the existing homeowners suffer…. “The hubris must be wiped clean” as you put it (post 52254 link below).
So the best advice I can give you is to follow your own advice that you dished out only a month ago…
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/11/19/nov-19-market-update/#comment-52254
LocalFool: Pay attention to what you’re doing with your life, don’t expect others to compensate you for making a poorly informed or impulsive choice. ** The hubris must be wiped clean **, and that inevitably involves some really tough lessons for those that chose to get in over their head. I don’t want you or anyone else to pay gratuitously for their mistakes.
Hope everyone had a good Christmas – consider staying away from stores today, and perhaps go for a walk in the park. 🙂
Deryk: Can I buy you a beer at the Penny Farthing today. Anyone else interested in getting together around lunch time?
Just out of university, paying it off with my career prospects just beginning, with Mrs. Fool just starting her masters. Yes, that makes sense – I could have totally bought!
My foolishness is even more acute, though. Had I bought in the 1990’s, I could have bought when houses had a relationship to the economy. I had a paper route then, and houses were totally cheap, so that could have been my down payment. I would be the only kid in grade 7 with my own house and a Sony Playstation!
If I had kids, it gets worse still – had they been born before me, they could afford a home too. But no, they had the foolish inclination to be born in the future, where they can’t afford shelter. What a bunch of short sighted clowns. It’s their fault. No wonder no one likes kids these days. Had they only made a better decision by being born later.
Sound ridiculous? The above is quite literally, what you’re arguing.
LF…lol.
You could have bought a house 4 years ago, in core Victoria, for 40% less than today. But you thought (and still think) you were smarter than everyone else, including the BOC. That’s a mess you’ve got yourself into, and don’t blame society or the “kingdom” for that. If there is a slowdown and price fall, take advantage of it, and buy a house, even if it’s at a higher price than when you started looking 4 years ago.
I couldn’t agree more. I’m personally sick of listening to these entitled little brats thinking they should have a slice of heaven that is VicRE just because “they grew up here”. So? GTFO, and go take your garbage 100k annual salary to Horsefly, or maybe Stewart. This kingdom doesn’t need or want your destitute lineage.
These lilliputian vagrants cannot understand the enormous wealth everyone owning a home has. This effectively backstops any housing downturns – they think Vancouver’s prices are 30X income, but Victoria’s in danger because it’s 11? Talk about hypocrites that can’t do basic math. It’ll never go down; this is why other highly desirable Manhattan-like cities have not ever seen corrections including the following:_____________________________.
The market has turned a corner, and prices have launched so gloriously high so fast, they have effectively achieved orbit and you’re just going to have to get used to it. Not that it needs getting “used to” – it’s not a problem anyways. Unless – you’re a renter. LOL!
2019 will see at least a 30% appreciation, as the mid-cycle lull ends. Actually, what I am I thinking? “Cycles” are just made up concepts by hopeless renters, desperate for something that they can never have. Up up and away, baby – you renters should spend whatever pittance you earn on a delousing…
Bungalow in Victoria. (Twenty minute bike ride to downtown Victoria)
https://www.casalova.com/for-sale/75-regina-ave-victoria-bc-v8z-1j2-401602?latitude=48.4542993&longitude=-123.3825779&transactionType=SALE&utm_
Amazing value.
The “news” article (12/25/2018) references some of the same BMO quotes from almost two years ago. (02/17/2017). https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/15/toronto-housing-bubble-bmo_n_14774526.html
Hopefully we can leave motley Fool articles out of the news feed posted here.
What? This crazy BMO bank official is suggesting there might be a housing bubble.
https://www.fool.ca/2018/12/25/bank-of-montreal-tsxbmo-just-declared-a-housing-bubble-is-a-crash-coming/
What gives? The price of an ordinary run down bungalow in Victoria is only about $900K. That’s only about 11 times the average millennial’s annual salary. These young people can pay more than that. They can take more stress and more depression. They should be happy to live in a country where the free market dominates, and where right-minded wealthy landowners rule the day. What a bunch of whimps.
The realtors really need to dig in here and let these sorry millennials know that the sellers mean business and they aren’t gonna take anymore BS. Prices are going higher and that’s just the way it is. Get used to it. So millennials, get your arses into the local realtors office right now. Bring them coffee. Offer to shine their shoes. Apologize for complaining. Go to your grandmothers place and take her silver collection and offer it up for a downpayment. These realtors have car payments to make. Sell your wife and children if you have to. If the bank has already squeezed one of your tits until it’s purple and swollen, offer the other one. Just get the hell in there and buy, buy, buy. Because the BMO is wrong. Prices are going up. They are going to continue to spiral ever higher.
Grace, I live in Rockland and the view to the south is just amazing on a clear day.
Lol. Good typo considering the date!
We don’t need fancy amenities. Our number one priority is quiet, then proximity to services. A view would be a great added bonus.
No electric car in our future!
Really useful info.
Now if you will excuse me I need to kick a few unruly sheep outta here.
Wasn’t quite sure how to answer the manger question so I am glad Introvert stepped up :-). I am also hesitant to offer opinions (knowing how different my thoughts are compared to others!) however I can add a few things. The building was built some years ago so it is in the midst of upgrades. The elevators have been done as have the balcony railings on the east side of the building. The west side balcony railings will be done next summer. Needless to say there is some disruption to this but most of the work happens during the day when I am not usually around. There are no fancy amenities like the newer buildings and don’t expect to plug in an electric car. But the views are wonderful (you need to be above the 8th floor for the views on the west side due to the adjacent condo block). The building is of course concrete and steel but no fire sprinklers (that seems to matter to some people). It is still the quiet, the proximity to everything and the views that keep us here.
But I read somewhere that Joseph wrote a few negative comments on airmanger…apparently the hay was too dusty.
It was adequate for Jesus 🙂
Thank you Nigel!
That is very helpful.The manger is good? I have been in contact with her via email and am on the list. Since we don’t when our house will sell it will just have to work out timing wise.
The rents are at the top of our price range but for something really good we will pay it.
Any info you want to share is most appreciated.
Because we’re told we need XYZ item and today! 😉 I will say that Victoria is an amazing place to unload the flotsam and jetsam of one’s life.
You’d be surprised — I know we were — but once you start and do an honest sift, sort, and out the door, it’s addicting. I can say this as hubby is the extreme on fixing & maintaining things and has a tool for literally everything and even he has been able to pare down and loves it.
Lovely wish but not one I share. My wish is for a sustainable, balanced, realistic market. My Christmas wish is that the next generation does not have to overly burden themselves in unsustainable debt just to have a roof over their head.
A sentiment I can share! Merry Christmas HHV and may the New Year bring joy to one and all.
Yep even he said he can’t ever move. It’s it’s own curse. He went looking for a two bedroom but the shock made him accept his fate.
Happy Ho Ho House Nerds!
I’m paying $1280 for my 1 bedroom and that’s still below market price. Hopefully not for much longer.
<My Christmas wish is that house prices crash fifty per cent in the spring and that all the house hunters get their perfect house and that house prices recouver by the fall.
Why would you want prices to recover by fall? As an owner you would only want prices to recover when you sell, u less you want to keep taking out HELOC loans.
Merry Christmas to all of you. Personally i like having all my stuff and I am having trouble figuring out where all this burden comes in. But I rather enjoy fixing and looking after things so different strokes for different folks.
My Christmas wish is that house prices crash fifty per cent in the spring and that all the house hunters get their perfect house and that house prices recouver by the fall.
Talked to him today. it’s actually a one bedroom and he is paying $850. But still…
Personal gripe, after listening to hours of complaining on local radio:
If people in Langford don’t like the Colwood Crawl, then they need to tell their municipal government to stop approving new apartment complexes on every unprotected patch of ground… All those new developments mean more commuters! And when did local infrastructure gain unlimited capacity? Seems to me that concerns were voiced a long time ago re: things like the Hartland Landfill. Did Harry Potter wave his magic wand or something? It’s time for mayors and councils to say ‘NO MORE!’
Wat. How is that even possible? Taxes and condo fees are often more than that. And he has a legit second bedroom?
With how liberating getting rid of stuff is, it makes me wonder why we all load up on it. I got to Victoria by driving a UHaul from Ontario and I do wish I had brought less. A few boxes and bins are full of things that don’t see the light of day. My parents number one source of stress is all their stuff. They’re in a 3 bed + den townhouse, it’s just the two of them, and they want a bigger place to fit all their things. They know they need to pare down but just can’t bring themselves to do it.
Merry Christmas and I hope you don’t get stuff you’ll be burdened by later in life.
Hello Grace, I live in the Belmont (off St. Charles) and have for several years now. We came from a house (downsizing) and find it to be a great place. Large units, very quiet and a 20 minute walk to downtown or Oak Bay village. Same time to Thriftys and the ocean.
I really liked “Renter in Paradize” post. (Something genuine in it.) He has it figured out.
I also found a link to a Nik Park’s video. I often wonder what the people posting on House hunt Victoria are like in real life… when all we might know are names like “Local Fool”, Hawk, etc etc
Anyway. When I watch this little animation I have fun trying to figure out which charactor in the video clip might be “Hawk” , Gwac”, “caveot empor” etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjSlB9WfpF4
Have fun predicting the future.
Hi Grace,
I have been in the Rockland, is this the building in question?
http://www.realestateinvictoria.com/properties?id=375562
—
If it is, I was in a large newly renovated (no link though) unit there that reminded me of a Las Vegas Sky Suite.
Merry Christmas to all and good night!
That’s what started it then the continued insane tweets added to it. The lunatic is on the grass and the markets don’t like it.
Well said RenterinParadise. Downsizing is the best thing that happened to me and made me realize there is more to life than a house full of shit you never/rarely use. I may well end up in a nice quality condo as endlessly repairing things becomes a pain in the ass as well as costly.
Headline I’d like to see:
“Local real estate expert recommends cucumbers as an inflation hedge.”
Has anyone been in a suite Belmont Tower in Rockland? (Visitor or resident)
Thanks Sidney is a possibility. We lived in Cordova Bay for three years. Lovely but we want to be able to walk to stores, library etc. A townhouse would be wonderful but nice ones are likely out of our price range.
I appreciate the suggestions!
Grace,
I agree with Barristers advice. Other nice areas to consider are Cordova Bay (sandy beach walks) and Sidney (marina)
Grace: You want want to consider renting a townhouse or row house instead of a high rise condo. I have friends who bought a townhouse in the Wedgewood estates in ten mile point and they are thrilled. great recreation center and wonderful neighbours.
No. The cucumber owner is only ahead of inflation if he purchased his cucumbers with borrowed money (4.1% 10 year rate). Same for the house owner.
If the cucumber (or house) owner pays cash, he’s no farther ahead from inflation. I was quite clear about that in my post.
Canadian house owners have gained (equity, on paper) massively from low or negative real interest rates.
Don’t cucumber rot if you hold onto them???
Renterin Paradise your post really resonates with me. We have been homeowners for forty five years. I grew up with a single mum in a small apartment in Vancouver. I never dreamt I would live in a house. That was for other people. Got married and have lived in every type of house you can think of…palatial waterfront and crappy run down mobile home in the boonies. Urban, rural, large,medium and small!
So now we want to come back to Victoria and we can’t afford a house and we don’t want one. We are done.we have remodeled, built from scratch( doing a lot of the work ourselves) and cared for big lawns, gardens and everything in between.
I am scared to death about living in an apartment again. Worried more about noise and privacy. I like smaller spaces. Hopefully we will find a great place; at least if we want to move we don’t have realtor fees etc.
We have been downsizing with every move and this one will mean garden and home tools go. It is liberating. We got to raise our kids in houses. I never had my own room growing up so figure they have been very lucky.
My husband is done with fixing stuff. Phoning the manger will be a new and fun experience!
Anyway there is a lot to consider with home ownership.
Whatever you do sounds like you have a good life.
Right, and so is the cucumber owner.
Speaking of markets that need more than a decade to recover….
Canadian stock market (TSX Composite) was 14,969 in June 2008. Today it is 13,780. That’s 8% lower in over ten years (source: google finance) . And no need to inflation adjust that, it’s nominal values. (albeit not including dividends). Leave a little extra egg nog out for Santa tonight.
That’s a real nice post. Thanks. I agree, the recent down trend and general slowing of the market is a welcome thing. Prospective buyers deserve time and options when making a big purchase like a house. Hopefully the “buy without an inspection” days are over. Good luck with your house hunt and it sounds like you’ve got a good plan either way.
Ya my brother is renting the same apartment as he has forever. Two bedroom in Northpark area. I think his rent is still in the 6hundreds! The building has renovated suites as people move out and the rents go up then but they leave him be… he can’t move though. He can’t afford the shock.
Merry Christmas all.
I thought it was trump’s rant about firing the Fed chair. The markets don’t like politics overtly dabbling in financial market decisions.
Why I’m a Renter aka Home is Where You Hang Your Hat
There’s been lots of push to buy, buy, buy regardless of house, location, price, current real estate market trend. While owning a home brings a certain level of security, it also brings a level of insecurity. I’d like to tell my tale here and explain why I’m still a renter in the Victoria market.
I bought my first home in 1988. I have owned a few over the years and was even a landlord at one point. I get the pros/cons of owning a home and have lifted a hammer more than once to do renovations. When we moved to Victoria, we didn’t know the neighborhoods but knew the school that the oldest would be attending (program of choice). So of course, that’s where we looked and to honest there was nothing to be had. Partly because we were moving from a 3200 sq ft house & 4 car garage loaded with possessions and had expectations for level of finish in a property. So to the rental market we went in the hopes of having more time to find a property to suit.
For the next 18 months, I looked long and hard at properties across the CRD trying to figure out where we wanted to be. I saw an awful lot of dumps, did put in an offer or two, and have celebrated some properties that I walked away from. One should get to spend more time for the largest purchase of their lives than they do buying a pair of jeans but these last few years have meant that offers had to happen without the time to think about what that property meant to the potential buyer in the long run. Some of the houses I considered but passed on have had to have some serious renovation work done including drainage tiles, foundation, and the like and were likely a big surprise to the new owner.
Being in the rental in this time, I have come to face the realities of life that some never do. It’s far too easy to accumulate possessions that outstrip one’s space. My rental is significantly smaller than my previous home and so I am in the process of downsizing. It is liberating every time something goes out the door. I know that when the time comes to move, it will not be nearly as traumatic as it was to move here. If we had bought here, I doubt I’d be in this downsizing mode.
Being in a rental at this time, we have come to realize that we are at a crossroads as to life changes. Where do we see ourselves in 10 years? While I’d once said I’d be here in 10 years, now I’m not so sure. Victoria may be a jumping off point as the children will have moved on with their lives within this timeframe. So now we’re looking at the short term and how that affects our family decisions. This rental for right now is located where we need it to be for this point in our lives. Could I find a house to buy nearby? Maybe, maybe not but again, I don’t see us wanting / needing to be here in 10 years.
Being in a rental at this time has been liberating. I always thought that I HAD to own a house but now I realize that I have options. I’m not tied to one location but have the freedom to stay if I choose. I don’t worry about the next bill on the house and there have been a few here (roof, hot water tank, drainage tiles, etc) It doesn’t matter if you rent or own. There are pros & cons to each and the decision is personal.
Am I concerned about getting a notice to vacate? No. Home is where you hang your hat.
Will we buy here in Victoria? Maybe. I do like this down trend I’m seeing and perhaps that house that’s right for our family situation will come along. That’s why I follow HHV – I’m looking for information about trends in real estate to help me make an informed decision – rent or buy – that works for my family.
Thank you Jamal for summing up more eloquently what I’ve written above.
PS: I haven’t had a single rent increase.
Long term you need to use adjusted numbers in order to paint a relationship. But shorter term they mask the true picture especially since they are adjusted to the CPI which itself is constantly adjusted to maintain a rate as close to 2% as possible.
Something like wages or household income adjusted house prices would be more specific. Be a nice pairing with the affordability chart which is monthly payments.
For instance weren’t wages going up a lot in the 80s?
Figured that was more Mnuchin’s comments to investors that the banks are in great shape to withstand trouble as they have lots of liquidity.
Not very bright. Reminds me of the Monty Python script where John Cleese, acting as an airline pilot flying a jumbo jet, says to passengers over the intercom for no reason,
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. There is absolutely no cause for alarm.” Moments later, he says, “The wings are not on fire.”
Good, that’ll calm people.
Not ignoring inflation, the house owner is profiting from it! We can currently lock in 4.1% mortgage rate for 10 years. (Mortgagearchitects.ca) All the house price inflation that occurs during those 10 years becomes equity!
Trump’s tweet storm(again), is tanking world markets. I don’t see this ending well at all. China relations are screwed, no one internationally (except Putin and Saudis) trusts him to do one single sane thing from here on in.
Buy select gold/silver stocks which are really beat up. Cheap pot stocks too with good earnings valuations because the country will be smoking up a storm as the chaos continues. $43 million in sales in two weeks on very weak supply? Whoa. Merry Christmas once again !
Depends on population growth rate too and assumption about household size. We had a long term average of 1% but 2011-2016 was more like 1.3%. That number was using household size of 2 (average is 2.2 in Victoria) but if there was a bunch of single occupancy coming it we would need more units.
Nice post Leo!
Are there numbers anywhere of total units for SFH and condos? This would reflect the total of all existing SFH and condos in Victoria. It would be interesting to see how that number changes over time, and ratio of SFH:condos. And interesting to see how many SFH we are adding in core Victoria vs condos.
If anyone has seen numbers like that, please post a link!
tsx 13800/ high 16586 not pretty but a good buying opportunity, No place to hide right now except your bank account and maybe I say maybe bonds.
Well, Santa so far is giving Wall Street a fat lump of coal…ouch.
I’m curious. If we look at the chart showing construction activity, you can see that we’ve been building close to that number for the last 15 years. In fact, there’s been times we’ve been building notably more, and now, way way more. And in almost all that time, no housing crunch. How are we so suddenly behind, especially considering the market has generally been well supplied up until very recently?
In fact, if you look at the inventory levels in Victoria over the years, everything was fine. And then, like a switch was flipped, it dropped quite quickly, precipitously, and uncharacteristically. Vancouver’s did as well. In other words, it raises suspicion that something other than organic growth was at work in explaining the lack of inventory/explosive demand.
I’m not so sure we’re under-supplied relative to what we need to house people. I’m more wondering if we were under-supplied to meet the demand of those who thought housing was the new money printing licence. What happens when people no longer believe that? Food for thought, I guess.
You can almost get away with ignoring inflation if it’s low like now (2%). You can’t get away with ignoring it if it’s high like in the 80s. If you would like to ignore inflation you might believe a cucumber has been an amazing investment in Venezuela lately. Value up 1000000000%!