How many empty homes are there in Victoria
Last week I spoke at a public hearing for some new housing on Quadra (which was surprisingly approved unanimously). One caller raised the point that new condos don’t help affordability because thousands have been built in Victoria and many are empty. It’s the dark window theory, which is where people look at condo towers at night, see some windows with lights on and some without, and assume the dark ones are empty. Obviously a flawed approach, although there has been a somewhat more scientific study using condo lights in Toronto that yielded an estimated vacancy rate of 5.6%.
However, in order to really dig into the truth we need to separate the question into two categories:
- How many empty homes are there really in Victoria?
- Which of these empty homes are bad?
The theory that there are thousands of empty homes in Victoria mostly originated from census data. Indeed the 2016 census states that there were 8330 empty homes in Greater Victoria, representing 4.8% of the total in the region. Given we only had 845 active residential listings at the end of August, at first glance it would be reasonable to conclude that we don’t have a supply problem, we have an empty homes problem.
Regional map of homes marked “unoccupied” in the 2016 Census. Source: Censusmapper
Victoria’s rate of unoccupied homes is in the lower middle compared to other cities in Canada. At a glance, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of correlation between house prices and vacancy rates either.
Unoccupied homes accross Canada. Source: Mountainmath
However let’s dig deeper. What causes a home to be listed as “Unoccupied” in the census? It means there was no one there on census day, and no response when Statscan followed up later on. That doesn’t necessarily mean the house is vacant (who answers calls these days?), but let’s assume that most of these homes were indeed vacant in 2016.
Of course there’s a big difference between a place that’s empty at one point in time compared to one that’s empty for a longer period. For example in the rental market, we want some level of vacancy to keep rents under control. In fact the problem with rentals is not that there are too many vacancies, it’s that there are far too few. We want to drive our vacancy rate up to about 3 to 4% in order to stop rents from rising. The census doesn’t determine how long a home has been vacant, or dive into the reasons why it may be vacant.
The BC Speculation & Vacancy Tax takes a different approach, asking about vacancies during an entire year, and separating justifiable from unjustifiable vacancies. That’s why out of the thousands of potentially vacant properties, there were only 906 homes in Greater Victoria subject to the tax. The spec tax wouldn’t count typical temporary vacancies between rentals (as long as the place was rented for 6 months), or if an empty home was for sale for a short time. Note also that 97 of those homes are occupied by so-called “satellite families” earning most of their income abroad so are not actually vacant. In our region, the City of Victoria has the highest vacancy rate of 1.5% of properties, while every other municipality is well under half a percent.
Other than the property being occupied by an owner or tenant, there are several other exemptions available to handle vacancies that can’t be reasonably avoided. Let’s take a look at the most common ones for the City of Victoria.
The 1807 total exemptions for presumably empty homes vastly outnumber the 402 mostly empty and taxable homes. However because one property can have several exemptions we can’t compare these two figures directly. It’s clear though that most of the homes that are vacant are vacant for a justifiable reason, which again helps to account for the big difference between the census and spec tax counts. Another factor is that the census is now 5 years out of date. Although there was only a drop of 86 properties subject to the tax between 2018 and 2019, its introduction certainly motivated some owners of empty properties to sell out or rent prior to it taking effect. I expect the 2021 census data to show a drop in the rate of temporarily empty homes in the region.
So after backing out satellite families we are left with 809 vacant properties in the region, including 273 single family homes and 478 condos. It’s not nothing, and given our low inventory if all of them returned to the market it would meaningfully increase supply, but it’s also not a huge number. If they were all filled at once, it would accommodate about 4 months of population growth for the region. I expect the number of empty homes subject to the tax to gradually decline as owners become tired of paying, but the numbers aren’t big enough that we will notice this in the market.
One important change coming up for next year though is the expiration of the exemption for units with rental restrictions. Currently if you have an empty condo but the strata won’t let you rent it out, you don’t have to pay the spec tax. However that exemption expires in 2021, which means owners will have to pay the tax next year unless they sell it. There were 705 units in the region that fall under this exemption, so it could add meaningful supply of (mostly older) condos to the market. No evidence that owners of these properties are concerned yet though, with new listings of rental-restricted condos in 2021 in line with previous years. I believe because of the way that the speculation tax is assessed, owners of these condos would have until the end of 2022 to sell them if they want to avoid the tax.
Long story short, there isn’t any compelling evidence that we have lots of empty units in Victoria. Short of outright population declines or an economic shock that forces people to increase household sizes, increases in vacancies or supply will have to come from new builds.
Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| September 2021 |
Sep
2020
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 129 | 271 | 454 | 650 | 989 |
| New Listings | 151 | 383 | 616 | 837 | 1294 |
| Active Listings | 1128 | 1180 | 1190 | 1166 | 2389 |
| Sales to New Listings | 85% | 71% | 74% | 78% | 76% |
| Sales YoY Change | -23% | -26% | -27% | -20% | |
| Months of Inventory | 2.4 | ||||
At the risk of repeating myself, September is really the last month where we see substantial new listings activity and it simply didn’t materialize. It’s unclear to me why new lists remain depressed. Vacation time is over so it seems unlikely to be anything to do with reopening. Sellers expecting further gains so they are deferring sales? Nightmarish buying environment dissuading upgraders? High rents and low interest rates motivating buyers to keep their existing homes as rentals? High case counts giving people pause about inviting people into their homes? Seniors fighting tooth and nail to avoid care homes?
Could be many things, but it’s still worth mentioning that before July there were just as many reasons why listing should be low and yet they tracked normal levels.
Given we are now near the end of September with no bounce in new listings in sight, it’s nearly certain we won’t see inventory relief before the new year. Even if the market cools substantially in October, November, and December, there are extremely powerful seasonal forces that would counter any increases in inventory.
The question is, with record low inventory, how much lower can it go? On average, we lose 25% of our listings from September to December. Even in 2008 when the market was literally melting down and sales came nearly to a standstill, we didn’t see an increase in inventory. That works when we have thousands of listings, but in this case that would take us to less than 700 active listings. Normally the fall is a good opportunity to find overlooked deals, but when the pile is so small I doubt anything will fall into that category this year.
https://tinyurl.com/4mcrwbsy See this new SFU study on foreign buying. It absolutely matters.
Thanks for your support Barrister! (even though you’re joking)
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2021/10/04/september-no-sign-of-any-relief-in-the-market/
Fern Good idea about banning meats and controlling diets. We also should ban all cosmetics, they are not environmentally friendly, along with all tattoo art which results in far too many infections and are a real strain on medical resources. Restrictions on purchases of cell phones would also help to protect sensitive environmental matters and coffee and tea stimulants should be banned and coffee shops are a real drain of resources. Flights should be strictly regulated and only absolutely critical air travel should be allowed.
This is a fantastic idea! Competitive eating is horrible and should be banned 100%. The excessive waste in our food supply is also terrible. Love the banning meat idea too, or at least taxing it.
95% of asbestos used in household applications is the serpentine variety (chrysotile), and there are at least some studies indicating that it is less dangerous than other types. If you’ve cut in to enough plaster walls or removed old Lino flooring, you’ve probably been exposed to it.
Vermiculite insulation came from Libby Montana and if it contains asbestos it is contaminated with tremolite. The fibres are straight and needle like, friable, easily inhaled, and not cleared by the lungs.
Attics are stuffy no matter the season and you’ll be crawling around in a tyvek suit which doesn’t breath (until you rip it by mistake)and a respirator. I’ve done this before to pull wire in the middle of winter and ended up drenched in sweat, itchy, and dirty. I wasn’t even working hard.
I do not like paying anyone to do something that I can do myself, but if I had an attic full of vermiculite, I would happily pay someone else to remove it.
+1, soon it will have to be removed with toothpicks.
A few more suggestions for your attic insulation:
– put a box fan in a window so as to put the living space under positive pressure
– use n/r/p 100 filters with your respirator
– don’t wait until summer, when your attic will be stupid hot
My only advice re: asbestos is do it sooner, rather than later. Regulations and therefore costs only go up with time- it’s not something that will get cheaper if you sit on it and wait a few years.
(I paid a company to do 2/3s of our house a while back, and did the other 1/3 myself (mostly due to timing and staging). Was pricey, but money well spent. )
Well then, pull out the wallet.
Asbestos (asbestosis), glass/rock/sand/clay (silicosis), coal (pneumoconiosis), etc… are mostly occupational and caused by prolonged exposure to high concentrations, so I wouldn’t be too worried for the single time that you work with it.
American Lung Association — https://tinyurl.com/42es8fkw
Seal every hole cracks nook and crannies in the house. Put on a Tyvec suit and respirator half mask or full face, and lightly spray down the vermiculite if you are worried, then scoop it up with a dustpan and dump it into a double heavy duty/industrial garbage bags. Work on one section at a time, and vaccum up what you missed as you go along. Then seal up every cracks, holes, nook and crannies in the attic. Dump the clothing and Tyvec suit in double industrial garbage bag and take a shower. Call Heartland dump and book a dump appointment.
You can thanks me later, for saving your family from abestosis and 18 grand.
“Yikes, I’d do it myself at that price.”
I wouldn’t remove vermiculite myself. It was contaminated with a particularly nasty variety of asbestos with needle like fibres.
Gotta think it must. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg for pandemic spending. We probably got a couple thousand if you add up the various provincial and federal programs and didn’t need any of it.
Removeall use to be cheaper than Hazpro but lately everything has been crazy.
“Canada’s ‘bank of mom and dad’ returning us to 19th-century inheritance culture”
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-canadas-bank-of-mom-and-dad-returning-us-to-19th-century-inheritance-culture
“The problem appears further exaggerated in B.C., where a recent survey of notaries found 90 per cent of first-time buyers got financial help from their family. That’s up from 70 per cent in a similar 2015 survey.”
Yikes, I’d do it myself at that price.
Little change of topic.
Any recommendation for companies to remove asbestos in an attic?…
Trying to get a sense for pricing…our upstairs is around 700sq foot, and our first quote was $18k plus tax.
Any help or suggestions about this?
Thanks.
I’m hoping now that the election is over, Trudeau won’t be afraid of losing votes from crb recipients, so he might actually end CRB.
Yes, and since there are about 26 million in the work force, that would work out to each worker paying $1,000 to fund CRB. Of course none of this is funded, and most people don’t care about that. So it wouldn’t make much difference if CRB cost $100B instead of $26B. I think economic reality will arrive one day though.
You almost have it there.. It’s not too hard to figure out, it’s been going on in the maritimes for decades with EI (POGY). They take the benefit and work for cash only during the time the benefits come in. There’s enough under the table cash for trades working construction for private renos (done under the table) to keep quite a few going (I bet someone who paid a premium for a house here is looking for a reno deal). People actually demand to have lay off put on their ROEs instead of quit, so they can double dip with cash work. I imagine the pandemic benefits are being abused the same way just with more of a national level effect (EI has different standards in each region for who qualifies and based on how much work). As for the service industry, if you were young and in it just for a few years before doing something else (trades or uni), the pandemic probably advanced your plans to get get out or move on earlier then anticipated. As well, Victoria businesses have been complaining about service staff shortages long before the pandemic. Not to mention, this is an expensive city, would any of you here be to live in Victoria on a service industry job?
CRB has cost $26B for 2M unique people since last October. So average of $12,566 each in just under a year.
Probably true.
They say there were 752,450 people on CRB in the Aug 25 to Sept 11 period (https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/benefits/recovery-benefit/crb-statistics.html)
If those are distributed equally across the country then there would be about 8000 people in Victoria on CRB.
CRB is scheduled to end on Oct 23rd. But given the 4th wave I’m thinking it will be extended.
OK, and they say what the penalty for that is. “ If you refuse reasonable work, you will automatically lose 5 periods (10 weeks) of the CRB eligibility periods.”.
How many people do you think they are going to investigate and determine have refused reasonable work? You’d have needed to get a job offer for starters. Many people will do absolutely nothing in terms of looking for a job as an employee, and won’t have “refused reasonable work”. Because you can be looking for “self employment”.
You’re expected to be “seeking work”, but this can be seeking “self employment” work. Maybe you wanna be a web page designer, and put an add on Craigslist to do web pages for $60 per hour. That sounds like seeking self employment work to me, and if no one calls you up you haven’t refused any reasonable work.
That’s fraud in my book. It says you can do that if the reduction is due to COVID. Pretty hard to argue at this point that someone in construction is not able to work due to COVID and there’s not shortage of work available.
No fraud needed, You’re allowed to make 50% of what you did in 2019 (or 2020 if you prefer). In the example I gave, you’re making $700/week instead of $1,500 when you worked construction in 2019, so you’re 700/1500=47% and under the 50% threshold. And you get crb on top of that.
You need to say yes to your job loss being “related to COVID”, and of course that’s true for losing a construction job in 2020. You don’t need to agree to accept a job, just agree that you’re looking for a job, and that could be in whatever field you want, doesn’t have to be construction.
Not just trades. Retail and customer service has some of the highest job vacancy levels of all industries
How do you figure? Seems like unless Covid reduced your hours you can’t be working. I’m sure there is some fraud happening but…
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/benefits/recovery-benefit/crb-who-apply.html
You’re assuming that they’re making nothing other than the CRB. They are allowed to make $38,000 while they receive the CRB. So if you take CRB , and sit at home making $700 per week ($17.50 per hour) doing something else, adding in that $300-$450 sweetens the pot to $1,000-$1,150 per week. Which they might prefer to a $1,500 per week ($37.50/hour) construction job, where you gotta be onsite, the work is harder, and you’re paying more taxes and employment expenses . Some of them would be doing this sitting on a beach in Mexico.
I’m with you, Leo.
It may not be the CRB that is responsible, but there does seem to be something going on, insofar as the trades can’t convince enough people to do the jobs that people were doing before COVID.
The roofers I had at my place last week were also bitching along the same lines.
I still have a hard time with this theory. Who in construction is taking $300-450/week when they could easily get double or triple that (and much more with any kind of overtime or skills).
The following is anecdotal evidence. Take it for what is cost. – Nothing
I spoke with a builder last week and he is pissed about the CRB. He finds it difficult to find workers because they rather stay at home than get a job. Which means he has to pay workers more than what the job is worth or do the work himself. If it wasn’t for the CRB he could pay workers less and that would make his homes less expensive to build.
Whether he would pass those savings along to the buyers is another question altogether.
Great quote, and it has a very interesting backstory. It was actually about the need for collective security during the Seven Years War (Wolfe, Montcalm and all that), known south of the border as the French and Indian War.
https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century
How a little mortgage math helps swing the own/rent debate in favour of buying a house
https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/how-a-little-mortgage-math-helps-swing-the-own-rent-debate-in-favour-of-buying-a-house
Housing markets are, of course, inherently local and distinct, so the report also estimated the comparative costs for 278 combinations of markets and housing types to determine whether the math still works in favour of owning. The result: “Out of 278 cases, the net cost of owning is lower than the cost of renting in 253 cases (91 per cent), and renting is less costly in only 25 (nine per cent) of the cases.”
Long COVID is a drag on the economy as many sufferers can’t return to work or are less productive when they do, not to mention the additional healthcare costs they impose on the system.
Given that, I can’t understand why a place like Alberta has, for the current and previous two waves, invited (through inadequate/poorly timed measures) such high rates of infection relative to all other provinces.
It’s just such an overall bad financial decision to say nothing of the needless human suffering and death.
Legalised drugs and banning food is a brilliant move comrades.
China enacts food waste law, brings in bans for binge-eating & fines for leftovers — https://tinyurl.com/hws7ukv9
While we at it we can petition to ban meat, and perhaps all tropical fruits and vegetables because that would help save the planet from the use of fossil fuels.
Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. Benjamin Franklin
It’s my understanding that social workers are actually hard to hire and retain in BC- perhaps there’s lots of graduates, but not many stay in the profession very long. Partially it’s pay, but it’s also that many feel unsupported by their system- very high burnout and turnover.
Banning the junk food that creates our obesity pandemic is a fabulous idea. It will also decrease heart disease, diabetes, and countless other pathologies. I don’t see the government mandating weigh scales in fast food restaurants and prohibiting serving overweight individuals. That would violate their rights. Your either healthy or sickly, it’s your choice when it comes to daily habits.
Also banning food would help. It would also alleviate many of the shipping woes we’re currently having. 2 birds, 1 stone.
On some level you are correct Barrister. Actually it is my young, wonderful granddaughter that is the social worker. You are right, she knew about the pay when she went into it. She actually thinks she is helping some of the youth she attends to. If you look at it this way, I am pretty sure most, if not all of us on here have ever “needed” a social worker and probably never will. Yet all of us need nurses at sometime in our lives. Much of what social workers do is something we don’t want to know or even think about. They care for the abused, the abandoned, the down and out, the mentally ill, the alcoholics, the drug addicted and the poor. In other words, the irrelevant ones?
As far as pay is concerned, I think most of those workers deserve as much of a livable wage as the municipal gardening assistant…or the liquor board clerk. Oh, I guess they do get the same pay!!
My granddaughter is in the “very fortunate” category. She will never have to worry about money or a place to live. Her parents and her grandparent (me), have ensured her that position in life. So, thank goodness she can focus on her job and come home at night knowing she made the world a tiny bit better. A feeling that many truly ever experience.
Getting covid is not just about dying. There are many young professional athletes who have experienced career impacts from side effects (myocarditis, extreme fatigue, shortness of breath) and long covid.
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2021/3/3/22292213/athletes-covid-recovery-stories-jayson-tatum-mo-bamba-asia-durr
I’m personally more concerned about long covid than death post vaccination. Long covid seems to impact about 30% of people and we don’t know if it will ever resolve in all. No fun to be consistently fatigued and short of breath month after month, many can’t work. Age, health and severity of symptoms are not correlated with getting long haul covid so we are all equally at risk of this until we isolate what may be a genetic predisposition.
https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/studies-show-long-haul-covid-19-afflicts-1-in-4-covid-19-patients-regardless-of-severity/2021/03
patriotz- I believe you are wrong, the new variants are affecting younger people more frequently than the early manifestation of the virus. Many have been hospitalized and some are dying.
Active professional athletes are not going to be in either the age group likely to die from covid or have comorbidities increasing risk. So it’s no surprise you don’t seen them dying, just as you don’t see other healthy people 20-35 dying. Lots of former athletes have died though.
Smoking is bad for you but banning it is not going to stop it.
Our apparent shortage of nurses, support workers and doctors is more a result of the pathetic overall health of our population. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m not aware of one professional athlete in North American dying from covid, or even requiring hospitalization. Hundreds of them have contracted covid, a few being affected for an extended period of time, most recovering quickly with minor symptoms. They report how many people hospitalized are unvaccinated but refuse to report how many are smokers or obese. We would be much further ahead if the government banned smoking instead of ruining millions of people’s lives with oppressive lockdowns. The CDC advised the U.S. government to vaccinate smokers first as they were the majority of people getting severely ill, requiring hospitalization and ultimately dying. Information that is not being released by our government or health officials.
I have to agree with Marko as to the need to pay nurses a lot more than we do now.
Alexandria you often contribute some great thoughts but the fact someone spends four or eight years at school does not mean that what they do has a lot of value. Eight years of studying Latin does not mean that one needs to be paid a lot. The same holds true for social workers. But I assume that one goes into social work being aware that it is a very low paying career. Certainly, I assume that the Universities make a real effort to make sure that their students are completely aware of the lack of real career opportunities as they continue to grind out thousands of social worker graduates. As well, they must also point out that many businesses would rather drink acid before hiring anyone with a social worker degree.
Tell your relative to get a real estate license where at least they can make a good living.
Society will be paying 100 REALTORS® in YYJ more than 500k this year. Take a look at the municipal remuneration print outs to see how many people are making over 100k in positions that if they disappeared overnight absolutely nothing would change in my day-to-day life.
If there are not enough nurses to staff emerg and ICU my day-to-day life changes dramatically. I would like to see ICU nurses at 150k/year without OT. I spent a few years working in ICU and damn it is a tough gig. Who on earth wants to work weekend nightshifts surrounded by stress and death.
Nursing is >90% female….
I hope you are joking Barrister, because I actually like you, lol……………..I think I may take up potting Geraniums in my old age………….
Alexandra: Something is wrong, the social worker is obviously overpaid. RN is worth a lot more to us,
Thanks Karise. That piece of property is an enviable one. I think they could make much better use of it. The building could quite possibly be twice in height and right next to the RJH.
I hate to say I peaked, but my niece is an RN within the Vancouver Island Health. I see she made almost $100K last year (2019/2020) according to the remuneration print out. ( I feel guilty for looking). Oh well. How much more can we pay them? You know, basically four years of education past grade 12. Fabulous amount of annual/sick/family related leave and other perks that many don’t have. I know this is a difficult job. My daughter is also an RN employed in the Fraser Health Authority. I don’t think we can realize the stress her and other are going through right now. But “Right Now” is the key expression because of Covid.
My granddaughter is a Social Worker with a degree and makes less than half of that( full time employment) with the same education. Doesn’t make sense to me really. Maybe more Social Workers are female compared to the nursing profession? I don’t know. But considering a gardening assistant, (probably mostly male), doing a few potted plants in any given municipality, can make the equivalent of that, I think something might be wrong. No?
Anyway, I don’t mean to degrade any males on here. We really do need you.
Are we sure that they like to live in shoe box size condo, or prefer family-size accommodation elsewhere for the same cost? Public medical professionals in high COL areas probably should get extra COL allowance to stay here.
I do not know if your browser can display graphic or not, but the BCNU image that I provided indicated that there are 36,636 RN/RPN and 8,939 LPN which is a heck of a lot more than 16,000 that were members in 1980.
BCNU 2018–2019 ANNUAL REPORT — https://annualreport.bcnu.org/
That’s the membership of the union. Obviously its growth in membership is not indicative of growth in the number of nurses, since at its founding 40 years ago many were not members – as can be seen from the linked article.
Our ex family doctor left Victoria (and at least 100+ patients) to mill bay due to housing reason.
It is in Oak Bay… the tweed curtain is strong my friend.
One floor for patients and I believe one floor of offices. I have seen some of the other floors being used for education but I’m not sure if that’s permanent. If there’s space it would be a good option because of its proximity to detox and the mental health facilities at RJH. Oak Bay lodge always seemed a great spot as well. Whatever happened there?
All floors of it Karise?
Eric Martin is used as a detox unit now.
What about the Eric Martin Pavilion? I believe they still use the bottom level floors, but what about the old psychiatric floors? Does anyone know if those floors are still in use? If not, that would be a great temporary location for some of the homeless or maybe a tear down and build something useful.
I saw for sale signs all along Helmcken across from VGH and the market was also for sale but not sure if it sold. Does anyone know what’s going in there?
I was actually thinking of more like twenty floor high residences. Actually there are probably a few developers that would do the job cheap if they were allowed to sell half the units as condos with us throwing in the land free.
On a serious note, the province should really build not only a new hospital but also both a new medical and nursing school on the West Shore. Royal Roads has a lot of land and nursing and doctor housing could also be provided. the West Shore is outstripping Victoria for growth and its needs should be addressed.
In terms of finance, maybe close down most of the social sciences and also the law school at UVic. You can fill up the empty seats with engineering students. Turn the law school into practical training for electricians and plumbers. Far better use of public funds.
It’s a good point. There’s also tons of empty land around the hospital that we could throw a few 6 floor apartments with ground floor commercial on to.
It is a new victimhood world.
Migration drives Greater Victoria’s population growth
Region surpasses 400,000 population despite seeing more deaths than births — https://www.vicnews.com/news/migration-drives-greater-victorias-population-growth/
BCNU in four decades has tripled in size. In the same period BC population growth is slightly less than double, and the lower mainland lead the province for growth that slightly more than double, while the CRD slightly lower than the mainland but still more than double the population growth.
Celebrating Four Decades of Advocacy — https://www.bcnu.org/news-and-events/update-magazine/2021/summer-2021/40-years-strong
We seem to have spare millions to house the homeless so there should be lots of money to build some decent high rise apartments to house young nursing and medical staff.
I think because there is a jurisdictional gap under the City of Victoria’s community association land use committee charter. The Gonzalez and Fairfield neighbourhoods are not part of the same planning areas for the City and the Fairfield-Gonzales Community Association didn’t have standing to represent the Gonzales neighbourhood. https://www.victoria.ca/EN/main/residents/neighbourhoods/fairfield/neighbourhood-plan/fairfield-neighbourhood-plan.html
I don’t know how staffing is going to work at lower salary levels going forward, but cities with high rents/prices in the US might show that people do leave when prices get too high and staff turnover increases. The people who stay tend to have family ties and support in the area and single adult workers are living at home with their parents much longer. Multiple roommates and substandard accommodation are the norm for those who are unable to afford the higher prices.
In many countries it is common to provide worker accommodation owned by the employer at an affordable rate. Probably not an option here given land prices, but rental developments like the UVic family housing complex for health workers which are built on public lands seem like something worth considering at this point. More likely perhaps would be a revival of the coop model of housing for complexes built on donated public lands.
And I don’t put any stock in water cooler chit chat about leaving. I’m talking about seeing people actually leave. And if they’re from Saskatchewan they don’t necessarily see it as we do they see it as the place they grew up and where they have family. Staff that bought in Victoria years ago and have watched their equity rise are not the ones leaving of course. It’s newcomers who are watching the current market that do. And sure the population is growing here just not growing with working class people. And no I don’t have data lol
Victoria gains population each year, a gain of about 4,000 people per year. More are coming than leaving. So that’s the opposite of a crisis on the margins that you’ve declared. Save that sad outlook for cities that are losing population. Home prices are rising because of this.
Most households in Victoria own homes, period. As usual , the crisis is on the margins. Reluctance of potential staff to move to Victoria and renting staff who leave due to the high COL.
Patrick that I can’t explain but I can tell you that it takes more than an ICU nurse to provide the necessary care to covid patients and all patients. It take doctors, respiratory therapists, x ray technicians, lab technologists, cleaners, food services, porters etc. It takes a team and every department is short and struggling. Perhaps it’s an overall shortage that is the problem because you do need all hands on deck or the place falls apart.
To be clear, everyone appreciates the great work that healthcare people like you are doing, especially those working with covid patients.
The issue I’m talking about is whether the only option left to us is to lock down the economy again, because it’s just impossible to find ICU nurses. My opinion is that the government isn’t working hard enough to expand bed capacity. There’s definitely a shortage of ICU nurses and others, throughout BC and everywhere. And they should increase ICU nurse salaries to help recruit them, and offer a housing allowance for those moving here. Acknowledging that isn’t the same as accepting defeat, and concluding that we can’t add to ICU capacity, so we should lock down the economy again.
Most Doctors and nurses I know in Victoria own homes, and have seen values rise $200k or more in the last year alone. That, and our great climate softens the blow of the “cost of living is high, let’s leave Victoria”. So some of what you hear might be idle water cooler chatter. Where are they gonna move, back to Saskatoon?
I don’t have data and I’m not interested in debating it. I’m just sharing my everyday experience working at the hospitals. If people don’t want to believe me I’m not bothered.
Karise,
You’d need to provide some data to backup those repeated claims.
For example, HealthMatch BC lists available nursing jobs on the island. There are only 15 full time nursing jobs posted. Only one is for an ICU nurse, and that is an odd sounding “floating”position split between Nanaimo and Victoria. The other 14 jobs are for regular wards, in oncology.
If the government is trying to build hundreds of additional amicus beds, why are there so few postings for ICU nurses?
https://www.healthmatchbc.org/Jobs-in-BC/Find-a-Job?RegionIds=3&ProfessionId=2&SpecialtyId=0&SubSpecialtyId=0&PositionTypeIds=1,4&CommunityId=&SearchPage=0&Show=list
Seems to me we are already at the “let ‘er rip” stage in BC. Of course that means vaccine cards, and mandatory vaccines for front liners. But in Victoria and Vancouver I’m not aware of many restrictions. The localized restrictions in BC have been imposed temporarily, because of low vaccination rates.
I’m sorry to keep repeating myself but they can’t open anymore ICU beds as there’s no one to staff them. The hospitals are running with critical staffing shortages. If cases surge we will crumble just like Alberta. Part of it is covid burnout and part of it is the high cost of living on the island. So many of our healthcare workers on the island are not from here. They come here because it’s beautiful Victoria but after a few years of the high cost of living and they want to settle down they leave and go home. Island health can attract staff to come but they can’t retain them. Same story over and over.
I think it’s a fair question once kids have a chance to be vaccinated. At this point given they aren’t, I’m rather not in favour of the “let it rip” approach quite yet.
Here you go Marko. Once you factor in sales volume the past 12 months is pretty dramatic.
That math looks right to me.
What doesn’t make sense is the expected BC government response to more cases, which you expect will be “more restrictions”. How about more ICU beds? How about the government stops boasting about surge bed “capability” when it turns out that would mean shutting down surgeries. How about some more “actual” ICU beds.
The idea of shutting down the economy with lockdowns was introduced in March 2020 as a drastic measure, since the health care system wasn’t equipped with anything like PPE, protocols or ICU beds. Well we can’t keep using that excuse, and continue to lock down the economy because the government doesn’t want to make more ICU beds.
Right now in BC there are 146 ICU beds occupied, and we have about 600 cases per day. Last year (sep 2020) there were 20 cases in ICU in BC. So we are up 7X YOY. Your math points to ICU beds being full at 1,000 cases per day. We might be there in a few weeks, and could be 2,000+ cases per day in the winter.
“Plan A” can’t be to lockdown the economy again. “Plan A” should be to build more ICU beds, and keep the economy open. COVID may be with us for many years.
Fifth quarter in a row that more people left the province than moved in:
Albertans departing province for greener B.C. pastures
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/albertans-departing-province-for-greener-b-c-pastures-atb-report-shows
I’ll repeat my theory that people are happy to pay these commissions exactly because they don’t feel that it’s coming out of their income at all. House goes up $500k and they pay $35k to sell it. They didn’t work for that money so it hurts less to spend it. Cheaper markets out east with less appreciation have a large private sale market
In addition to QTs math, would also depend on how often a typical house changes hands. What do you think is average interval between sales for condos and detached?
Although if it’s a constant it wouldn’t really matter and we can just assume a number
Meanwhile, in Alberta:
“What we’re seeing now is essentially no ability to provide any other acute-care medicine beyond care to people with COVID. So, in essence, the health care system has already collapsed.”
https://docdro.id/R3zT3ai
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadian-medical-association-urges-lockdowns-for-alberta-and/
My back of the envelope math…
Given:
1. Kids will eventually have an approved vaccine and similar vaccination rates as the rest of the population
2. at least 10% of the population will not get vaccinated.
3. Everyone will eventually be exposed to COVID.
It seems that we can handle about 1000 confirmed cases a day before ICUs start being full and surgeries cancelled. Govt would put in more restrictions if it got past that.
So 5M people means 500k unvaccinated. 1000 a day means 500 more days of the pandemic.
Very rough obviously and could be argued to death on the details
They loaded up on houses when they were nice and cheap. You too, right?
Wonder why the city is paying for mediation if the GNA has no official standing.
As for community associations they need to be phased out anyway, or at least removed from the land use decisions. Totally non-representative of the community in most cases
Very Victoria — two neighbourhood associations acting like the Hatfields and McCoys 🙂
Victoria suggests mediation to heal Fairfield-Gonzales rift
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/victoria-suggests-mediation-to-heal-fairfield-gonzales-rift-1.24361215
IMHO, we need something like this, but it shouldn’t be voluntary.
Reconciliation initiative aims to make up for ‘rent-free’ living
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/reconciliation-initiative-aims-to-make-up-for-rent-free-living-1.24361203
In my opinion, listings will not increase until this pandemic is behind us. That could be another couple years or longer. People in general are simply in a holding pattern. I’ve observed very low levels of business activity in my travels, a great deal of people are choosing to buy remotely such as having their groceries delivered or picked up at the door. That’s how paranoid people, even vaccinated, have become. Of course some businesses are bustling such as restaurants and bars, probably frequented by younger people who do not own property. The older home owners are content in the meantime to stay put and enjoy their home’s seclusion. Downsizing, for now, is on the back burner.
The biggest factor in this is the Canada Child Benefit which started in 2016. From your source:
You do not remember correctly. Not me at all on that one…
Most of my portfolio was energy last year right after the crash, and was 100% energy and mining by May of 2020. As of this June 1/3 of my portfolio are energy, and presently energy is 1/4 of my portfolio.
By the way, if I remember correctly weren’t it you that thought Shenzhen housing market is a good buy a few months back?
$55,771 average Canadian family income in 1990
$160,000 average Victoria SFH in 1991
$7800 average Victoria SFH commission
$71,700 average family income in 2020
$1,000,000 average Victoria SFH in 2021
$33,000 average Victoria SFH commission
In the past 3 decades salary increased 28.56%, and realestate commission increase 423.08%
What is clear and supported by statsCan data, Is that the numbers of poor people in Canada decreased by 30% from 2015 (14% below poverty line) to 2019 (10% below poverty line). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_Canada
I think that improvement in poverty has been due to a healthy Canadian economy being well-managed, allowing the private sector to create jobs. .
The best thing the government could do is return to well managed finances, and let the private sector continue to provide jobs which would remove even more people from poverty.
These huge deficits and money printing are nonsense, as they threaten the economy and could reverse these gains that all Canadians have benefitted from.
We need more Canadians pulling the economic wagon and less sitting on it. Ending these COVID economic programs (CRB, CEWS) would be a good start.
From: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/explained-why-europe-and-china-are-facing-an-energy-crisis-and-how-it-affects-india-7523541.html
Everyone topped up on their energy stocks when they were nice and cheap, right?
Hey Leo, not sure much effort this would for you but I would be curious to know on an average sale SFH assuming a real estate commission of 6%100k+3%balance (commissions may vary) what percentage of the average annual family income that commission is and how that has changed over the last 30 years.
“Dad: Quick, lots of high density in Vancouver, move now and be happy nestled in with all the other jerks (you seem fond of name calling which I guess is a substitute for reason these days).”
Barrister: No. When are you moving to Switzerland again?
The BOC have purchased 1/4 of outstanding Canadians bonds. That leaves 3/4 of the bonds owned by Canadians (68%) or foreigners (32%). That means foreigners own about $400bn of our debt.
Foreigners have been big buyers of Canadian debt during COVID , adding $50 billion in one month alone (April 2020) for example. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/foreigners-are-buying-up-canadian-debt-at-a-record-pace-1.1451294
lol.
It’s all been magicked into existence from thin air, and even though the supply chains are breaking down a year and a half into this, all the inflation is transitory.
Let’s be very clear here, poor people aren’t the ones benefiting from the pandemic.
https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2021/04/28/the-truth-about-canadas-debt.html
Off topic a bit but I wish they would build another Costco either in Saanich East or Central Saanich. This would cut back much of the traffic along McKenzie, Pat Bay Highway, #1 Highway as well as Millstream & McCallum Roads in Langford.
Saskatoon has two Costco’s and their population is almost 25% smaller than that of Greater Victoria.
Where have you been? Those are all pre-pandemic programs you’ve mentioned.
The handouts Barrister refers to are likely the ones that created most of our $350 billion deficit, threatening our economic future.
Namely:
– For Individuals: CRB (CERB), CRSB, CRCB, CCBYCS, CEWS,
– For businesses: CEWS, CRHP, CERS, HASCAP, EDC Loans, LEEFF,
– For self employed: CRB, CRSB, CRCB
None of those programs are funded by taxes, its all borrowed money from foreigners. They all are supposed to end, but then the government just kicks the can down the road and keeps them going.
Here’s info on those programs: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/economic-response-plan.html
Dad: Quick, lots of high density in Vancouver, move now and be happy nestled in with all the other jerks (you seem fond of name calling which I guess is a substitute for reason these days).
James and Leo with characteristic wit. Marko what is wrong with people is that for people like yourself it always seems to be ever increasing density Always a few more slices of the salami. Before we approve more density lets first restrict all real estate comissions to less than 1/2 of a percentage point. Maybe less even. That would actual help in reducing real estate costs.
Sure we can eliminate school grant and everyone have to pay full tuition, hence there would be more workers and less students and staffs.
More tax money doesn’t equate to more efficient government.
“Wtf is wrong with people….yes, a bit of extra density in North Saanich will ruin her life and maybe status quo should have been the option before her house was built, Dean Park, the airport, the ferries and everything else?”
Haha, keep in mind this is Green Party country, and the concern is about “Neighbourhood Hubs” with “mixed use commercial,” and seniors apartments on ALR land. Oh the horror of having commercial services within walking distance and seniors housing on land where polo matches and afternoon tennis once took place. What a bunch of jerks.
Home owner grant? Let’s start by eliminating that government handout.
What are you referring to? Unemployment? Welfare? Socialized Health Care? Subsidized roads? Corporate subsidies and bailouts?
“In an emotional opening address to the workshop….”
“Gibson would like to see the process stopped until the end of the pandemic, which she said has made community engagement difficult.”
“She would also like to see the status quo on the table as an option.”
Wtf is wrong with people….yes, a bit of extra density in North Saanich will ruin her life and maybe status quo should have been the option before her house was built, Dean Park, the airport, the hospital, the ferries and everything else?
North Saanich residents oppose greater housing density, criticize plan review
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/north-saanich-residents-oppose-greater-housing-density-criticize-plan-review-1.24360970
Reduction to immigration due to covid is the driver behind lower population growth. If we maintained this level of growth for five years than house prices would be a lot more reasonable as supply caught up,
Off topic but does anyone know when the government handouts are schedulled to end?
Provinces.
Lowest growth rate in some years, though much higher than the national average (0.55%)
I agree to a point. Although with current pricing, it is far more accurate to describe any teardown single family house as luxury accommodation, while nearly any condo is far more attainable. It’s odd how people often describe condos as luxury even though they are far cheaper.
I do agree that we should be focusing staff and council time on creating below market, affordable, and rental housing. Often these projects require additional subsidy in terms of density or cash to get built. The nice thing about market supply is that it creates itself. The only thing that staff and council need to do is get out of the way and developers will gladly flood the market with townhouses and condos to sell at whatever the current market value is. That will address at least 75% of the supply needs, and free up time to focus on the 25% (just spitballing numbers here) that the market simply can’t provide.
Always the first week of January.
Anyone know when the next BC Assessment values are to be released?
Unfortunately for lots people, especially the young ones, condo has been the only affordable option.
Owner-occupiers are exempted from the spec tax on that qualification alone. Leo was talking about absentee owners who rent out part of the property.
I agree that the fear of empty windows is perhaps inflated, but I think it’s also more of an issue with some kinds of development that others. One development was recently marketed towards people who “collect waterfront residences”.
During the pandemic, it was clear that certain more luxury condos had lower occupancy than more moderate ones. Rental buildings seemed to have much higher occupancies based on lights being on at 7-8pm in the evening.
Nothing wrong with that in a housing market with adequate supply- but I’d argue that right now staff need to prioritize developments that are targeted at residents rather than investors. Given an apparently limited amount of staff focus, they should be working on affordable/subsidized housing projects first, then rentals, then condos, and finally luxury condos (in that order.)
Good grief! So every year we would need to explain to the government on spec tax form why we don’t have strangers living in our basement?
We’ve finally found a Canadian house price bear. It’s the government CMHC… they say they are “hoping” that there won’t be a large sharp fall in house prices.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-risk-jumps-high-145757867.html
Canada’s housing agency said the country is now at high risk of a sharp correction in home valuations as the continued appreciation in prices becomes unmoored from economic fundamentals
“ Though Canada has seen a rising vaccination rate and an improving economy since then, the strength in the housing market is still far beyond what’s warranted by these developments, with prices further detached from labor incomes, the agency said.
“We’re seeing price acceleration, over-valuation, and it’s increasing the vulnerabilities for Canada,” Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, said on a conference call with reporters. “Hopefully we don’t see a large fall in house prices”
Thanks good point. The spec tax allows owners to rent out one part of their home and qualify for the exemption for the whole home. Possibly an area that could be tightened in the future.
Yes seems like they have become better at finding these suites too, given the shift towards much more “duplex in a flat” in recent census.
Leo,
Please note that dwelling unit definition of StastCan is different from the city: when there is a suite in a SFH, they consider there are two units in this address, and treat it as two separate units for survey and census purposes. Also from StastCan point of view, summer home bound students are subject to survey/census in their home town only (same as CRA tax return). For example, if a street has total 10 SFHs and three of them have suites, to City the street has 10 home units and there is no vacant homes if all are lived/rented. To StastCan, it has 13 units, for each confirmed non response unit, be it vacant or student rental or use by the same family of the main house, it is counted as one (census) vacant unit. So if you could look into it, you will likely see higher rate of those census-vacant units in Gordon Head area.
Note that StastCan has their own ways (including personal visits) to find if there is a suite or not, not limited to suites registered with the city. They need that so the stats of people living in a suite are counted in the surveys and census, and they will not exchange the info (i.e. which house has a suite) with other government agencies.
Kingston is a university town. Census day was May 10, 2016, during summer break. Normal for a comparatively high number of units to be unoccupied. Probably a factor in the three cities behind it as well.
I know Victoria has a university too, but it’s a lot bigger than Kingston.