New condo listings up 50%, but detached inventory remains tight
It’s a week past labour day, and normally that means the start of the fall market in Victoria that brings the last surge of new listings before activity dies down into the winter. This year has been anything but normal, with listings and sales continuing strong into the normally quiet late summer. However so far we seem to be missing the fall listings surge, with barely an uptick in activity in the last week.
Sales too have been drifting downwards, but those are still 50% above last year’s levels, while total new lists are just 5% higher. Our labour day came later this year so we may still be in for a small spike, but it seems decidedly muted, with the spring market just bleeding seamlessly into the fall. It will be interesting to see what happens once we approach the end of our pent up market activity, a point which we seem to be nearing.
New listings for single family homes in the last two weeks were identical (216) to the same period last year, while Townhouse and duplex new listings are down 13%. However condos are another story, with the last 2 weeks bringing 176 new condos to the market, up 50% from last year. Right now there are 627 condos on the market. Unfortunately the system is producing incorrect values for active listings, so I can’t show the current state of condo inventory in historical context, but it’s the continuation of a picture I’ve been painting all summer. If there’s one sector of the market that is experiencing the perfect storm of headwinds right now it’s the condo market (Covid fears, insurance hikes, unemployment impacts). The condo market was pretty strong before this, and in real estate it takes many months to shift the market balance, but this is a trend to watch especially once pent up spring activity is fully exhausted.
For the overall market though we are going to see another huge sales month in September, with month to date sales up 61%. The detached market shows little sign of cooling so far, although over-ask sales are down slightly from about 25% most of the summer to 22% in the last two weeks. The median sale is coming in at 12% over the assessed value. The high end market too remains on fire, with 16 sales coming in over $2M in the first half of the month, more than triple the number we saw in the full month a year ago. That will keep average prices high for another month.
Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB:
| September 2020 |
Sep
2019
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 210 | 414 | 616 | ||
| New Listings | 289 | 566 | 1168 | ||
| Active Listings | 2579 | 2561 | 2823 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 73% | 73% | 53% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | +62% | +61% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 4.3 | ||||
Mayfair and Oakland’s are a bit sketchy
New post. Will add Monday numbers to it later tomorrow.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/09/20/pent-up-spring-demand-should-be-nearing-the-end-but-out-of-towners-may-keep-it-up/
1726 Carrick. Looks like a great buy…am I missing something?
How a roadside zoo unleashed a lizard invasion on Victoria
https://www.capitaldaily.ca/news/common-wall-lizard-victoria-rudys-pet-park-saanich
Oak Bay shuns increasing density. And Oak Bay is the most expensive (desirable) location on all of Vancouver Island. Coincidence?
S/L
Fall listings surge just didn’t happen. New lists only a few percent above last year’s levels while sales are still up 35%. Not good. I’m sure the year over year comparison of new lists will go back up once we move out of the surge window from last year, but market balance def shifted
I wonder if this is partially a flight to perceived safety for people sitting on cash. That would tie up with Leo’s observation that the percentage of high-ratio mortgages has declined recently.
Market still nuts….SFH in the core.
I’ve got an idea for the province. Any municipality that does not increase their zoned capacity by at least 2% every year does not get access to the home owner grant or the tax deferral program
Seems like every place but Oak Bay is trying to make a difference on this. What a fiasco the redevelopment of the Oak Bay United Church into an affordable housing project and church has been.
The land and the zoning is the important part. If a city isn’t willing to play ball cough Oak Bay cough no amount of federal or provincial funds will make a damn bit of difference
School taxes (all of them, not just the recent surcharge on $3m+ houses) are set and received by the BC government. The BC government then allocates funding to each school district based on enrollment.
For many years the school tax was set and received by school districts. This was changed to the current system to to eliminate inequities caused by variations in the tax base among school districts.
The city will not directly own or provide the housing on these lands. They may lease them at a lower cost to a non-profit to provide affordable housing with grant assistance from BC Housing as they are already doing on four city-owned properties. You can read about the housing strategy for the City here:
https://www.victoria.ca/assets/Departments/Planning~Development/Community~Planning/Housing~Strategy/The%20Victoria%20Housing%20Strategy_Phase%20Two_FINAL%20Web.pdf
Sure they do. Not generally smaller ones but bigger ones do. The city just bought the Pandora properties for affordable housing.
More importantly though they control the zoning, deciding where and when things can be built. Without the municipality on board affordable housing grinds to a halt even if there is federal and provincial support
The municipality doesn’t own or provide housing, nor does it engage in business activities. By heavy lifting do you mean lobbying the province/federal government and encouraging non-profits and implementing the regulatory framework to encourage more affordable development?
https://www.ubcm.ca/assets/Convention/2017/Presentations/Monday~Sept~25/Basi-Dissecting_Affordability_revised.pdf
Yes, I think so too. They could also implement a capital gains tax on the sale of a home which would capture a significant amount of funds that the homeowner has in hand that could be directed at affordable housing measures.
Loads of seniors could also afford to pay more and they can access the grant and deferral program because there is no income test. Many younger and newer homeowners with or without families struggle to get into the market and for the first five-ten years of ownership. They don’t have extra income to absorb a significant annual increase in fees which, ironically, is implemented to create more affordable housing. If the increase is minor, which it likely would be, I don’t believe it will have any effect on prices. Property tax exemptions for specific types of affordable housing might be more effective.
Depends what you mean by housing solutions. The feds and province should provide cheap money and grants for housing. But all the heavy lifting needs to be done by the municipality. More revenue on the municipal side would definitely help there. Of course ideally we would reduce income taxes at the same time to compensate. We want to encourage income while discouraging vast unproductive real estate holdings
A portion also goes to the school district and bc transit. I am sure the provincial and/or federal government could come up with a law to also get a slice.
It would impact home owners that have high value homes disproportionately. Yes, it may force low income to move to something cheaper. However for seniors they already get a discount and are able to defer property taxes.
It should make large lots in the core more expensive to own. This should incentivize more efficient use of the land. Overall it makes homeownership more expensive so should have a downward pressure on prices.
If financial responsibility was taught at school, emphasizing saving, investing, the importance of acquiring a principal residence and a strong work ethic, people might be a lot more financially secure. Instead, young people are kept in the dark on the most important matter of their life. We enter the real world with zero knowledge of the income tax system, compound interest, investment opportunities, basically totally ignorant of how to manage finances. But most young people are highly proficient at video games.
An ignorant population is easier to control.
Property taxes are charged by municipalities not the province or federal government who should be providing housing solutions. Municipalities raise rates only if their budget shows a need to raise rates otherwise they are not currently permitted to do so under taxation laws. Raising property taxes would impact lower income home owners disproportionately. Not sure how that would work or where the extra money would come from to pay these taxes as, unlike a sale, there is no extra income/earnings available to pay from.
Not sure what you are basing this on. Base CPP is 15% invested in Canadian government bonds and 85% invested in non-Canadian equities. True the new additional CPP rate will be 50% Canadian government bonds and 50% foreign equities. However that will only be 1/6 of the rate. So total new money coming into the CPP will still have about 80% invested outside of Canada.
For reference: https://www.cppinvestments.com/faqs
Yes it is funded by contributions from employers and and employees to pay for it and in the 90s and 2000s steps were taken to stabilize it’s shortfall from the years it provided defined benefits to those that never contributed enough. However, it is administered by the government and is facing extensive lobbying efforts to expand coverages and it is actually the backbone of the the government’s domestically sourced debt. So, those bonds the government issues (bonds that back debt) are purchased a lot by some organizations that go by the names of the Bank of Canada, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation and guess who else….. The Canada Pension Plan making it a large part of the vested portfolio dependant on the Canadian dollar and the Canadian tax payer. The issuance of that paper is happening at low rates with low rates of return, the extra paper out there leads to a lower value in the long run. Then the repayment of the debt for CPP investments falls to the taxpayer. If the value of the return on the investment is then limited by tax payer fatigue, decreased dollar return value, and things like inflation (that tends to occur after big paper prints and linger for years) the value of the CPP money is degraded when received by the pensioner. If the the levels of debt cause a bond negotiation in the future, creditors like the bond holding CPP are impacted on their ability to pay out. Hence, a need to make smaller payments, extend the age qualification to an older cohort or just fully move to defined contribution for the pensioners.
The debt cycle impact on state pensions played out to a real negative impact on people in southern Europe just one short decade ago. Government fiscal situations do affect pension stability especially when the government is the one that guarantees those pensions or needs to use those funds as debt guarantees to new creditors….
So, diversify, diversify, diversify and try not to be too dependant on any one income source or asset class to sustain yourself in your old age.
CPP is not government funded. It’s considered to be actuarially sound. Like any prediction, that may turn out to be wrong but it won’t be because of the government’s fiscal situation.
The only necessary and economically sound incentive for becoming a homeowner is that it is cheaper than renting. All the other “incentives” offered by government just make it more expensive.
In the States, I believe when they sell their primary residence, they have to pay capital gains. However, if they purchase another residence, around the same price I presume, then the capital gain does not apply. I’m too old to look up all the details so I will let all the “youngens” do it.
The problem with taxing gains on primary residences is that it can be a disincentive to move. Let’s assume prices went up 40% over 4 years like we recently saw. If I lost my job and had to find a job in similarly priced market and had to move, I wouldn’t be able to afford a house priced the same due to the tax I would have to pay. The government would probably have to allow you to defer the portion of the gains that got reinvested in a primary residence within a year to reduce this negative side effect. But that makes the tax more complicated and will probably open it up to more loopholes.
I think the easiest and most efficient way to tax home ownership is to increase property taxes. This would also discourage speculation.
you are so right umm really about those collecting government pensions. There are believe it or not, even in this town, many people that never had the privilege of contributing into a defined benefit pension plan. One has to have a lot of savings to get the equivalent of $45K a year in interest income. Right now the maximum you can get in a 5yr term GIC is 2.1%. When you have a yearly $45K pension with annual increases you can afford to risk more of your savings in stocks, mutual funds etc than the person/couple that are living off their investment income plus OAS & CPP.
I understand the formula being considered in a report being prepared for CMHC was:
25% tax on any profits after two years
15% tax on any profits after three years
10% tax on any profits after four years
5% tax on any profits after five years
Not sure if this is accurate but there is a study underway. https://www.gensqueeze.ca/solutions_lab
Perhaps the idea of capping how much gains a person can make on a personal residence before it becomes taxable could be a good balance to some of these issues and also help with buy in from existing homeowners.
When you change tax policy there are all sorts of consequences that need to be considered.
Housing is tricky as it is an investment but it is also shelter and we want people to have shelter through their life cycle and there needs to be an incentive to invest personally in this so the job doesn’t fall to government later in life to support people and so the proceeds can be used to support people in their elder years if required. On both sides of my family the grandparents stayed in their homes until they couldn’t and then the proceeds supported their care in their later years.
So, there should be some incentive to become a homeowner and some reward for the hard work it takes to invest in this. But In some places there has been an absolute windfall so some now view it as a money-making investment and maybe this needs to be curbed a bit to create more equity. I don’t know.
And some people are never going to earn enough to own and maintain a house even if prices were lower, so there needs to be more good affordable rentals geared to income. I think if we filled this gap it would go a long way to making addressing shelter concerns.
If you shift too far from shelter as investment to shelter as accommodation you get a disincentive to maintain. This is the situation on First Nations lands for shelter and why there is such a poor level of maintenance. There is no investment value, just another cost of living for people who don’t have the means to maintain because there is little to no appreciation. Pride of ownership is strongly linked to economic value imo.
With 70% of the population vested in homeownership, it is going to be one tough sell job for any political party to get people to accept they need to pay more tax on their primary asset. Especially with that population viewing that asset as already heavily taxed with land transfer, gst\hst, property taxes, regulatory fees, and not to mention the extra 200k to 300k in mortgage that they carry that from government rules, procedures, fees and taxes on the building of that home they purchased. As well, if a person flips a homes as their source of income or as a business…. It is taxed as such already.
The bigger problem is that so many people are too pot committed to a single asset like housing to the detriment of other savings and investment vehicles. They are sacrificing RRSPs, TFSAs and other investments to secure the dream asset that appears to a lotto win with the gains seen in recent years and are banking on that return combined with government benefits in retirement to make things work. The problem will be that when the debt issues comes down on government, there won’t be enough taxes to be taken to prop up the existing programs in their current states. I don’t count any CPP as a part of retirement planning because it will likely be modified to a lower benefit at a later age. Not to mention the impact that debt will have on Universal Basic Income (UBI) as it already exists under it’s other welfare names federally as Old Age Security (OAS), Disability pensions, HST/GST rebate cheques, Child Tax Benefit Cheques and etc… All these programs will be impacted by the debt crunch and the struggle by all levels of governments to maintain services without killing economic productivity under complex and overly engineered tax systems.
There’s still an advantage in being taxed at 50% rather than 100% of income but obviously the biggest advantage is the primary residence exemption. Let’s stop giving tax advantages to people with the most wealth.
Housing gains are already taxed as regular income at a rate of 50% of the gain. There is just an exemption for a primary residence.
In my view, renting out rooms in a primary residence should not cause you to lose out on your primary residence tax exemption if we are going to maintain this exemption for others. A homeowner who chooses to do this is likely to be doing it out of financial need and, at the same time, providing low cost housing. This is currently legal and they subject to tax on this as income less deductions. From a social policy perspective given the vacancy rates and lack of affordable housing this should probably be encouraged.
Agreed, but I think that’s what has already happened to the benefit of asset owners and the detriment of renters and wage earners.
Or how about to be really fair since pensions are taxed as income we could tax gains made from selling a house at regular income tax rates.
It’s probably good for everyone to remember that if more annualized taxes on wealth and assets as accrued gains does comes in, it will likely need to come a mechanism to write down losses when those assets depreciate or suffer some sort of downturn. It is really a sword that cuts both ways in the end. Overly engineering tax systems to force winners and losers based on popular politics typically ends with poor results. In this case, likely an overly complicated tax mechanism that is inefficient that doesn’t actualize it’s revenue goals and negatively impacts everyone across the board. But hey, if we are talking about taxing assets that gain wealth annually that people are counting on for their retirements, let’s make sure to include all those defined benefit pension folks (gov pensions and etc) in the pool with home owners and tax the gains they make annually on any other pensions as well…. Just to keep everything fair……
These are all normal and documentable situations. What I had in mind was more the situation where someone has an expensive house and has no history of paying Canadian taxes nor has inherited the property from someone who does.
Who’s talking about that? But I do think it’s quite possible we’ll see a tightening up of capital gains exemptions on commercial use of principal residences.
There are lots of Canadians with expensive residences who pay little or no income tax.
Seniors and early retirees and those who bought, paid off their home, and then had circumstances change such as through divorce. Those receiving child support, for example, may pay zero tax and still be in the expensive family home with the children. People living off a combination of TFSA and RSP income may also pay little or no tax. Adult children and widow/ers may inherit only the family home where they hope to stay. An extra tax on low income people who are paying the bills by ex. renting out rooms (little net income tax due to deductible expenses), could cause someone just managing to lose their home.
That would be a sensible route to go. Deemed income tax on residences you own. Then zeroed oui if you pay other income taxes above thresholds.
James Soper- Thanks for the ill- will, it is greatly appreciated. Applying another large tax only pulls more money out of the economy and hurts everyone. We all know how efficient government is when it comes to spending our money.
In other words it’s sheer speculation. I’m in favour of higher property taxes, but I doubt very much that the feds would try to move into a tax which has always been exclusively provincial. Too much political downside.
Much more likely that capital gains taxation would be extended in some form IMHO. Also getting serious about deemed income for those living in expensive houses but paying little or no income tax.
The ultra wealthy never pay more taxes, they control the government. I thought we knew that.
Anyone familiar with 3420 Woodburn, major reno in 2015 I believe owner is a builder, been on and off market for at least 3 years, someone said they were originally asking 2.7mm, staying firm at 2.088 for a long time, I believe reno was down to the studs, how do you value this vs new build
Hope they do it. Not to balance the budget, just so that Frank pays more.
Take it easy, Frank. I think you’re going to make it.
But it would be nice if governments started with this:
The ultrawealthy have 10% of global GDP stashed in tax havens
https://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-money-offshore-makes-inequality-look-even-worse
Article in today’s Globe and Mail postulating that the government may be considering a yearly tax on principal residences on top of property taxes. Guess I’ll rent out my principal residence and live in a tent. Better yet, move to another country.
The ‘decade of the home’ is coming – will young adults be locked out?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-the-decade-of-the-home-is-coming-will-young-adults-be-locked-out/
I remember when luxury in Victoria was over 1.2 million.
Crazy
Yes if you just mean construction costs. But the land it sits on cost something and is worth something. It’s part of the cost of the suite.
Regarding the naming, I recall “garden suite” being used as a euphemism for “basement suite” in Vancouver . Might still be. Over there a secondary dwelling is called a “laneway house”.
CMHC to get name change to reflect changing focus away from just home ownership
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-name-change-1.5729674
Along with the new name should come a new motto: “Buy that expensive house and you’re on your own!”
Saanich gives green light to garden suites after years of consultation
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/saanich-gives-green-light-to-garden-suites-after-years-of-consultation-1.24205277
Sorry to jump in late with a rebuttal to the rebuttal, but just wanted to point out that in Vancouver there is notoriously little Airbnb enforcement (I can’t speak for Victoria). Commercial operators and people with multiple listing are rampant, and have been ignored by the city. The licensing system is a sham – plus Airbnb have no obligation to take down illegal listings. It’s mostly for show.
Also, foreign buyers may have dropped on paper, but isn’t the problem actually foreign capital, and money laundering?
Aren’t the Speculation & Vacancy taxes based somewhat on self-declaration (the honour system)? Seems legit.
And the beneficial ownership registry was delayed from May to October. Can the virus be blamed for everything?
Government looks intent on giving the impression of action, while not seriously addressing these issues.
Something might be coming together with local accounting firm on the suite issue. Working on an article for early/mid October.
I am hoping that my place sells as fast when I finally get to put it on the market.
I viewed a place in Colwood a few weeks ago which was listed one day. I liked it and watched a steady flow of showings go through as the next few hrs passed so I made an offer under asking. It was accepted same day and had 2 backup offers. It took 12 hrs to sell..If it is priced right and you love it I don’t suggest hesitation, someone else will bite.
Let the garbage 1950s condos townhomes and houses that Victoria seems to adore sit and rot. WFH is here to stay, no need to over pay and fund someone’s retirement. Let’s face it, most ppl over 30 have no need to live in the core. Victoria is not Vancouver, TO, SF. It’s much more like Seattle where the desirable areas are nested in nature.
The best time to buy is when you can afford it and need a home. If you’re in it for investment Victoria is not immune to global crunches but it’s much less likely to go down in any significant way.
Teranet out today : Victoria leading the charge – In August the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.6% from the previous month, a gain just short of the 22-year average of 0.7% for the month of August. If the typical seasonal variations are taken out (seasonal adjustment), the resulting index for August is by our estimate up 0.4%, following consecutive declines in June and July. The rise of the 11-market composite index was led by Victoria (2.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (2.2%), Montreal (1.9%), Halifax (1.8%), Hamilton (1.6%) and Winnipeg (0.7%). Trailing the countrywide average were rises for Quebec City (0.5%), Vancouver (0.2%), Toronto (0.1%) and Edmonton (0.1%). The index for Calgary was flat from the month before.
A friend of mine is trying to find a SFH between 2 and 3 million and he has been outbid twice already. About to try a third place today so maybe third time lucky.
TD Insurance wait times are 4 hours + right now. It’s crazy trying to get home insurance right now
Sales outperformance still almost entirely on single family (and townhouse).
U.S. Fed signals rates will stay near zero for at least three years
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-signals-rates-will-stay-near-zero-for-at-least-three-years-1.1495020
Discussion of legalized garden suites in Saanich, as well as people raising the tax implications again (losing principal residence exemption) that we’ve discussed here plenty of times. https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/iujhnz/saanich_council_votes_to_allow_homeowners_to/
I’ve reached out to local accounting firms again to see if we can get someone to make a public statement on this (suites and garden suites). Last time I didn’t get much enthusiasm to commit to a position in public but worth another try.
Both I’d think based on the data if you are in an enclosed high transmission risk space. My son had to travel to Europe and he wore a N99 respirator plus eye protection based on the research we did and did not remove it on the plane. It was mid-July when he left and end of August when he came back. Got lots of weird looks on the way there and questions from staff, none by the time he came back and there were a number of people doing the same. His test was negative after arrival in Europe and negative in Canada too after his return.
I think you guys are talking about 2 different things.
The cost for applying to the BC PNP program is about $1-2k.
But investors looking to immigrate under the PNP program must have net worth of $600k and be willing to invest at least $200k in capital.
https://www.bcimmigration.com/how-to-apply/bc-provincial-nomination-program/bc-pnp-business/
Just heard a very interesting bit of information concerning covid19. People who wear eyeglasses are less susceptible to getting infected. Statistics from China found that only 6% of patients wore eyeglasses. I guess they act as shields to protect infection through the eyes. Might be a strong case for people to wear the face shields instead of masks or both. I prefer dealing with people wearing the shields instead of masks.
Wow. I could see that price tag if the third-party provided a fake job for sponsorship and for as long as it takes to get PR.
165 new cases today. No idea why they haven’t enabled the national COVID alert app yet. It’s been available for many weeks.
Same experience here with TD
Total cost of the application is $2,235 for one person.
https://eservices.cic.gc.ca/epay/order.do?category=11
The 3rd party service for helping to prepare the application is around $1k-$2k. I used Imagine Immigration in Vancouver and they were great.
a nominal fee is around 60k+GST for BC PNP as far as I know of….
“Has anyone tried getting house insurance recently? I am finding it’s taking forever to get quotes”
Go to TD’s online quote request, then click on “request call back” or something. If you call them directly, you’ll be on hold for hours, but they have a requirement to call you back within 15 minutes or something. They were also the best rates for us as well.
Has anyone tried getting house insurance recently? I am finding it’s taking forever to get quotes
Just pronounce it like trawno and you’re 1/4 of the way there.
I mean short of allowing folks to show up at the airport with just a resume, what are the other options for streamlining the process to allow more trades into the country? The PNP program really isn’t that hard to qualify for, the main hurdle is some paperwork (a couple of forms), a police check (so we’re not letting criminals in) and a medical check (so we’re not letting very ill people in), and an English/French test – all very useful criteria to have in my opinion. What can we do as a country if individuals from other countries don’t have the time, effort or motivation to go through this process?
If you screw up any part of the paperwork, the application is rejected. Mine was rejected twice due to minor paperwork issues. That’s why I suggested a 3rd party service that does the paperwork for you for a nominal fee which makes the whole process much easier.
Leo I don’t think conversation has moved to that group (which i’m in) – lots of posts but normally very few comments. I’d say less people talking here as pandemic fears have leveled out and no one worried or thinking there will be big price drops in the immediate future. This site’s comments explode when perceived threats to the housing market arise and then it quells when less is happening. If we start to see some issues after the bank deferrals end then comments will spike back up again. Alternatively we could all start writing really poorly and have Introvert spam the board with her knowledge of English 😉
Lets see if I got this right, we bring in people to build houses who only do it for a year or two until they get their PR papers. But somewhere along the line we now need to build an extra house for these people who are no longer building houses.
Has it occurred to anyone that if we stop bringing in people to build houses than maybe we would actually need less houses and that we might be ahead of the game?
Honestly, how much do they pay?
I’ve met lots of couples that have been sponsored by companies….usually in super shitty towns in Manitoba, etc. First problem I’ve noticed is most aren’t truly skilled or interested in working in trades but use the program to get PR. Tim Hortons sponsors in many places, lots of farms, etc.
I know at least five people that have quit their jobs LITERALLY the day after obtaining PR and moved to Victoria or Vancouver to work in non-labour industries. Just met a couple like that a month ago. Packed all their stuff in their car and drove from Manitoba straight to Victoria.
~~~
so true.
I also met quite a few business class investors under the PNP program( BC or any other province PNPs), as Marko said the day they got PR status, they let their staff go and sell their business at loss and move immediately to YYJ. A recent version is that they are stuck in the local eatery businesses.
I did see what did they do here in YYJ while waiting for their PR or after they got PR:
1) get kids to a nice school while mom generally does not work at all could they can afford it
2) dady goes back to wherever they come from, and make tons of money there and may or may not come back to YYJ until they are ready to retire.
3) if the dady decided to stay with PR status, they start to buy a small coffee shop etc to have very low-key life.
4) mom tend to group up with other moms who are in a similar situation (rich husband, no ability to speak English) and purchase investment properties in YYJ( including pre-sales and cheap land in surrounding areas, engaging in multiple-level-marketing business and sell craps to their relatives in their home country, and loan /pool private money to average skills immigrants who cannot pass the stress-test or does not sufficient income etc)
look here how many of them decided to settle in BC ( and YYJ)
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda
Doesn’t work well in practice as you still need a high level if intellect, financial ability, and savvy to make it through such a nominee program.
I’ve met lots of couples that have been sponsored by companies….usually in super shitty towns in Manitoba, etc. First problem I’ve noticed is most aren’t truly skilled or interested in working in trades but use the program to get PR. Tim Hortons sponsors in many places, lots of farms, etc.
I know at least five people that have quit their jobs LITERALLY the day after obtaining PR and moved to Victoria or Vancouver to work in non-labour industries. Just met a couple like that a month ago. Packed all their stuff in their car and drove from Manitoba straight to Victoria (they both already have solid jobs here. It was tougher to find a condo to rent than a job).
A drywaller working in X country simply doesn’t have capability, on average, to make it here. As I said, my friend in Victoria who was working his *** off doing drywall in Victoria for a large company that was sponsoring him got his application denied by some paper pusher. His company was working on the Black and White project by abstract and he said they were lucky if 50% of the drywallers showed up on any particular day. So here you have a guy willing to work hard in an industry that desperately needs workers and gets denied.
And then I know so many immigrants in Victoria here less than 3 years working for the government…..how on earth is that going to work long term I have no idea.
Pretty sure trades are covered under the provincial nominee program with express entry eligibility. Processing times are quoted as only 2-3 months. The worker would need to be sponsored by a local company for entry.
Highly recommend using an immigration assistance service such as imagine immigration in Vancouver. For about $1000 they make sure all of your paperwork is in order before submitting.
This really is a good idea I’ve never seen discussed though. The feds could easily tweak the points system and immigrate more skilled trades. Is anyone talking about this?
I noticed that the condo I had rented when I first arrived in Victoria had no floor drains anywhere. Can it possibly be that expensive to have floor drains put in when the units are being built?
Agreed. Those changes are just nibbling around the edges. If the government wanted to make a big difference they could modify the insurance requirements of the Act but that would have unintended consequences (like harder or impossible to get financing) or they could set up the strata version of ICBC (probably a terrible idea).
Speaking from experience it is frustrating to get hit with an 85% increase when the strata in question hasn’t had a claim for 10+ years.
Those laws won’t make a significant difference to strata insurance. Nothing the govt can do about it, other than making code more resilient so there is less damage as Marko suggested.
Friend said her unit was damaged in a flood from the unit above this spring. There have been 4 floods in the complex just this year. All could be solved with a few floor drains.
B.C. amends law in effort to address sky-high condo and townhouse insurance
https://www.timescolonist.com/b-c-amends-law-in-effort-to-address-sky-high-condo-and-townhouse-insurance-1.24202371
Which Facebook group would that be?
Lots of discussion has moved to the Facebook group. Not my preference for platforms by a mile but I realize that blog comments are so 2000s.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/969225743469736/?ref=share
The bears are pretty quiet these days. Not seeing many fiery diatribes against “it’s different here” or wordy rants on a crash that’s inevitable and near.
Well they will tug on each other. Some single family / townhouse buyers will jump ship downwards if condos are a comparatively better deal as well.
That said the ratio between detached and condo has been increasing for 3 decades. No reason to think it won’t keep increasing going forward. Of course we will see swings around this trend.
At some point house prices will prop up the condo market. The spread can’t just keep increasing.
Insured mortgages losing ground quickly. CMHC share of new mortgages must be quite small now after their changes
Data from US shows high velocity of stimulus money to those with lower income. Phaseout of CERB will really hit consumer spending, but with talk of UBI it may never happen
Not a surprise that Covid has altered the retirement plans of a lot of people. Interesting times for the real estate industry. You even might want to take some coarses to learn how to speak Ontarian or at least the Torontonian dialect.
That’s what I’m hearing anecdotally as well. Q1/Q2 2020 data shows out of town buyers are lower than in years, but seems like that is changing now. Will be interesting to see Q3 and Q4 data. If there’s an increase again it could prop up the condo market (not like any other segment needs propping up)
Marko-Just as I predicted a couple months ago. A lot of baby boomers are just getting ready to retire and looking for better climes. Older boomers are seeing their snowbird health insurance increase dramatically due to their age and covid. Demand will outstrip supply for a long time.
Seeing a huge number of out of towner buyers from across Canada in my personal business.
If I owned a really big house in Vancouver I wouldn’t want to undertake redevelopment. Only reason I’d do that would be to give my kids a place to live. I can imagine there will be a group of more sophisticated investors who will undertake redevelopment if the price of the two market homes makes the subsidized units worth building – it will come down to ROI.
Saanich garden suite plan passed public hearing unanimously, goes to final reading.
https://twitter.com/zacdevries/status/1306103614541234176?s=20
https://www.saanich.ca/EN/main/community/community-planning/policy-initiatives/garden-suite-study.html
I’ve been reading about that program in Vancouver, seems to be mixed opinions about whether it’s a good thing or not. Seems unlikely that a great number of private home owners will have the sophistication and motivation to basically become a mini development company, and completely gut their house to make 4-6 suites and then be locked in to the affordable housing restrictions. Just doesn’t seem to make sense.
If someone really lives in a big detached house and needs to unlock some equity, they will just get a reverse mortgage. In the end I doubt much will come of it, but at least they’re thinking about how to get supply into single family neighbourhoods.
Is this a good idea?
Vancouver mayor to introduce housing program aimed at middle-income earners
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-housing-program-middle-income-earners-1.5724210
question regarding house price gains. If they can go up 19% yoy, is it reasonable to assume they could drop by the same amount over the next year?
Or historically do prices tend to go up faster than they decrease?
And yes, I realise they’ve been going up for like the last twenty years, so there’s no real modern precedent in terms of the low interest rate environment.
An earthquake could be devastating. That said, California has experienced some very destructive quakes over the last few decades, and none of them made RE less desirable or less expensive there.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/09/14/new-condo-listings-up-50-but-detached-inventory-remains-tight/#comment-73236
It seems you have forgotten the earthquake threat. It used to be one of the regular discussions on this site but that threat doesn’t get mentioned any more because of covid 19. The fault hasn’t moved, in fact there have been shakes close to here over the last few months but the “big one” it still biding its time.
The market could change for many reasons, I just have to dust off my crystal ball and I will have all the answers.
totoro- You have to plan for a worst case scenario, a best case scenario and anything in between. One positive for Canada is the thousands of wealthy snowbirds that will be forced to stay home at least this year. They may inject enough economic stimulus into the economy to help some businesses to survive and possibly thrive. They may even relocate to the West Coast driving up prices even more.
If an effective vaccine is brought out in the next 4-6 months, then expect things to normalize for most of the economy but not all of it.
Watching the devastation in the Southwest U.S. is a bigger problem. That part of the world may become uninhabitable in the next 10-20 years. Those people will have to move somewhere and B.C. is the closest.
If you have a relatively safe, good paying job, it might be wise to buy now. A lot of people are.
I wish I could find a hypothesis as to what will happen next that appears sound.
So many small businesses and lower paid workers are experiencing loss of incomes, and potential business bankruptcy. And then we have all the people that are doing better now that pre-pandemic as their wages are the same while their expenses associated with work have fallen. Others in health care are getting overtime. But there have been high paid job losses too in fields like airlines, banks, and entertainment and we are at least a year away from any relief it seems.
If I was employed and in a position to buy right now I might pull the trigger if I was concerned about qualifying later due to worsening economic conditions. There are many ways to make home ownership work and it is much harder to get qualified right now. Then again, I’m hoping the market starts to become a little more balanced because it is super hard to find something that fits our criteria atm and I think how can something like a recession/depression not impact house prices as the economy is impacted further and our governments go deeper into debt.
late30- It’s a joke, better air quality in the Alps today.
Apparently, prices up almost 19% nationally in August.
https://financialpost.com/real-estate/home-sales-hit-another-record-in-august-with-prices-gaining-almost-19
With announcements around interest rates staying low for next couple years, does this create any potential for the bubble speculation to come to fruition?
-The factors that I am curious about are how long does this selling and price pace keeps going?
-What are the actual recessionary conditions we are facing? (Since stimulus is masking a lot of the effects)
-How long of a recession can the market withstand?
-Is the market detached from the fundamentals of the economy?
-Is any speculation on this just academic because Covid-19 has just knocked all numbers and modelling so out whack we just have to ride a roller coaster for while to see where things level out?
It does make for interesting times out there especially with the possibility of the Feds and BC governments triggering elections this fall. Can we be bought by our own tax dollars and the crippling debt we pass on to our children?
Def not weakening prices yet, I’m just looking at market conditions that will lead there if deterioration continues. Big IF as usual
I dont think that the condo prices are softening all that much yet.
late30- Now is a good time to buy a small investment condo- in the Alps.
On the demand side:
“ British Columbia saw one of the smallest declines in the country this past June. That all rolled back in July, as declines accelerated at a rapid pace. There were 1,580 permanent residents admitted in July, down 68.58% from the same month last year. Year-to-date the province admitted 35,975 permanent residents, down 29.03% compared to the same period last year. The decline in July was over 3x the one seen in June, and the largest of any province.”
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-immigration-resumes-big-declines-as-permanent-resident-numbers-plummet/
Hope everyone’s doing ok in this smoky, nasty air.
I wonder it a good time to buy a small investment condo while is the price is softening?
Clear and factual; a real pleasure to read. Thanks Leo.