Employment continues to recover, but the easy gains are over
August jobs numbers are out, and they continued the positive trend of growth in employment as more parts of the economy returned to normal. From a peak loss of 383,000 jobs in BC, we’ve now recovered 73% of the losses, leaving us out 103,000 jobs from February, or down 173,000 from last August. By industry the picture looks more or less as expected, with employment suffering most in recreation, trade, and business & building support (pesky work from home). Surprising is the supposed 20,000 drop in construction jobs which doesn’t jive with what I’m hearing, but more on that later and may be due to the megaprojects like Site C and LNG Canada operating with a reduced workforce.
What’s to come? Well educational services had a very bad summer with many summer schools cancelled, but should bounce back in September as we will need at least as many if not many more teachers to handle the in-person, online, and private tutoring demand. Construction too I would expect a rebound, however during the winter the fly-in/fly-out camp positions could be at risk if the virus situation deteriorates. Unfortunately I expect a reversal of the positive trend for accommodation and food services later in the fall as patio season comes to an end and local tourists head back to work in their home towns. Victoria should be better positioned than most towns to continue to attract BC visitors, but it’s still going to be a very lean year.
For several months now I’ve been talking about how the official unemployment rate for Victoria is not that meaningful, firstly because it’s a 3 month average and doesn’t reflect shocks like what we’ve experienced, and secondly because a lot of people weren’t looking for work and thus weren’t counted as part of the labour force. So in past months I devised my own method of estimating the real unemployment rate by projecting the provincial change in employment by industry to Victoria’s labour market. By that measure we hit a peak of 18% unemployment in April but have recovered many of those jobs. As we get further from February though, that method becomes less accurate as seasonal effects start to become problematic so I won’t be publishing it going forward.
However now that the drastic swings in our unemployment rate are over, we can return to the official measure which should become increasingly accurate. Some caution is warranted in interpreting the unemployment picture in Victoria based on these numbers. The StatsCan data for smaller municipalities isn’t the most stable at the best of times, and with Labour Force Survey response rates plummeting during the pandemic, we may be getting a bit of a distorted figure still.
Although the August figure of 10.6% unemployment represents June, July, and August, those were all after the worst of the restrictions were lifted and thus employment wouldn’t have changed as drastically in that time. What’s interesting looking at that data from Statistics Canada, our labour force has grown by over 9000 people since February, and many of those new potential workers are unemployed. Or put another way, we are only down 6200 jobs since February, but we have gained 15,500 unemployed people.
A few things stand out to me:
- Unemployment did not seem to deter newcomers. The pattern of an increasing labour force in the summer is not unusual. We normally have a lot of summer tourist jobs, so it’s natural for employment to increase in the summer. What’s surprising to me is that those additional people seemed to have arrived in Victoria this year despite the seasonal jobs not materializing. Returning students?
- Population growth was still strong. According to StatsCan we’ve gained 6300 people since last August, and it seems most of them are counted amongst the unemployed. What explains this? People moving back after losing their jobs in Alberta?
- The unemployment rate may drop rapidly in the fall, even if we don’t gain too many new jobs. There are some key differences emerging in the employment figures, most notably food and accommodation employment still down strongly in tourism dependent Victoria while the rest of the province is doing alright there. Eventually those out of work employees will retrain, move to greener pastures and leave Victoria (or go back to school and leave the labour force). Note construction and Finance Insurance Real Estate (LOL) employment is up strongly in Victoria from last year.
The tourism industry will eventually return to Victoria, but we may see a bit of an outflow of workers before that happens. Biggest impact from that on real estate? rentals and condos. Homeownership rates in the worst affected industries are 45-60% compared to 70%+ in the industries that so far are doing well. That said the economic impacts are far from over so this could well change.
Speaking of condos, the cracks are starting to show in that side of the market. It’s not a buyers market yet and prices are still roughly stable (median sale price 4% above assessment in August), but as I’ve been saying for some time, condos are the most vulnerable right now and could be in for a seriously weak 18 months or so. Both houses and townhouses have strengthened from last year, with year to date sales up while new listings are down. Condos are the reverse, with a solid 10% drop in sales while new listings are up 6%. Rock bottom interest rates have not attracted enough new demand to counteract the pandemic slump.
Looking at the sectors that are still weak in Victoria from an employment standpoint (tourism, trade, and supporting services), that is again going to hit the condo and rental market hardest when deferrals expire. If you’re looking to sell a condo I would think hard about doing that now while the fall bump in sales is still on. In a normal year you have about to mid / end of October to sell a place before the market winds way down for the winter. This year is anything but normal but it may be similar timing as the last of the pent up market activity is exhausted around the same time. If you are buying a condo, I think there will be some some deals coming up. Right now people are shying away from condos, but the pandemic will pass, and the reality is that a condo will be home for more and more Victorians over time. They aren’t going anywhere.
The overall market continues pretty steadily, with both sales and new listings way above last year’s rates.
Normally we get a bump in new listings and sales after Labour Day, and I expect an uptick this year as well, but likely not as substantial as normal. Pent up market activity will still be evident in September, but we may see the effect of that start to wane towards the end. September numbers will likely be strong, but I expect we will see a sharp drop in October.
New post on this supply issue. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/09/13/supply-is-not-the-problem-a-rebuttal/
Will add market update on Monday sometime.
“You buy a dog first and then you go protest that you can’t afford to buy place with a backyard in the core.“
I feel like a $10,000 backpacking adventure every year, or a $50,000 Tesla or fuck-off truck would be a bigger barrier to home ownership than a dog. They really don’t cost that much and they make better friends than humans.
Too bad that is not the society we live in. We live in a society of insane entitlement.
You buy a dog first and then you go protest that you can’t afford to buy place with a backyard in the core.
No kidding eh. Heck don’t get me started on how much of my valuable time my wife and kids take up!
On another off-topic note – interesting article on why wearing a mask while out and about may end up saving you from suffering severe case of COVID:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/face-masks-could-giving-people-123956392.html
Just another reason to bear the minor inconvenience and mask up.
Hot take: maybe save dog ownership for when you have a net worth > $1M. Until then, $5K might be better spent on countless things such as paying down debt, buying a used car, or kickstarting your kids’ RESP, to name three.
And that’s just for Rover’s knee surgery. There’s also his bags and bags of food, trips to the groomer, occasional kennel stays, etc.
P.S. I love dogs and had one for 14 years.
That figure still astounds me!
We’re running about $475/month/person, and it got even higher recently — which spurred us to make some changes, like getting serious about price-comparing, baking our own bread, and buying certain items at Costco.
However, we won’t stop buying organic to save money, as we personally feel it’s worth the trade-off.
You can also buy a HEPA cabin air filter for your vehicle(s). I’ve been using them in our Toyota for about two years now.
The ones I get are made by Bosch, and I buy them from Amazon.ca when the price drops to around $22.
If you’ve never replaced your cabin air filter before, it’s super easy to do (check YouTube) and it’ll save you the ridiculous replacement price your dealer/mechanic will try to trick you into paying.
Haha. I’d challenge Dr. Gordon to fisticuffs but that doesn’t work so well over Zoom.
This is how we know this site is in good hands.
“Wow, I’m so angry I could just….write another article on Victoria RE. RARR!”
😀
I agree Leo. I read the working paper published by the author last week (not peer reviewed) when it was used by someone to argue against greater density and the Fairfield community plan. Flawed analysis of the data imo. And it is not about any supply, but the supply of affordable housing.
Wow. That article makes me so mad. Gonna have to write a full rebuttal for Monday.
Anyone. Stats Can average is $200/month/person on groceries. If you are spending seven hundred dollars more than this per month for a family of four that amount if invested instead would turn into $107, 998 in ten years assuming a 5% return. More if put into an RSP or RESP that would not otherwise be utilized or to buy a home earlier.
If you would like to or have to reduce food costs here is a non-vegetarian US blogger that explains how she does this with recipes and meal plans plus a large garden based on 40 US cents per person per day:
https://theprudenthomemaker.com/category/40-cents-a-day/
And here is what a vegan couple in Vancouver with no garden who spend about $125 each per month on groceries and toiletries combined eat:
https://incomingassets.wordpress.com/2020/03/29/grocery-tracking-2020-pandemic-edition/#more-160346
Yeah I replaced my cheap furnace filter with an expensive one last week and have been running the fan continuously since then. Forced air has its upsides
Off-topic, but we are about to experience some seriously bad air quality in the next couple of days according to forecasts. The AQI to reach about 500! Yikes. 2020 has not been a kind year.
https://aqicn.org/city/british-comlumbia/victoria-topaz/
The ‘supply crisis’ in Canada’s housing market isn’t backed up by the evidence
I will add some words of my own: If the RE industry really thought supply was the problem, it wouldn’t object to the modest demand-side measures taken in BC, such as the FBT, spec tax, vacancy tax, and $3mil+ property tax surcharge.
There was never any general income splitting. The Liberals did cut back on splitting of small business income but as seen below other special cases remain.
One potentially huge expense are pets. I love animals but hate large vet bills. My cousin recently spent $5000 on knee surgery for his dog, the alternative was euthanasia. They also require an enormous amount of attention, taking up a great deal of ones valuable time. We all know they provide great company for their owners but every time I think I should get a dog, I consider the downside and forget about it.
I think this is it. Outside of regular spending it’s Very hard to estimate impact of those random purchases here and there that don’t fit into any category.
With a $210k income and full pension there’s almost no way to screw it up but they could be so much better positioned than they are
On reading the article the G&M it says the couple “actually have – or should have” – a surplus of $1495 monthly. And expert who is commenting says that they don’t have a good grip on their finances. My feeling is this analysis is based on numbers they provided and are best guesses….by a couple who haven’t a clue. How accurate of the monthly numbers they provided. I suspect there are many couples out there like this. Financial illiterates.
The G&M couple – $900/mo on groceries and cleaning supplies? Family of 4? I must say I’m impressed if that is factual. Garden Suitor – you end up angry. Myself, I frequently find it extremely difficult to believe. The budgeted monthly expenses seem far fetched sometimes. Who can feed a family of 4 on $900/mo in Victoria? I think there were some folks commenting on this in prior posts and I was impressed with how little some of you who commented were able to spend on food on a monthly basis. Some were growing their own gardens etc. My wife and my kids spend about $1500/mo and that is being pretty rigid. I’d feel we’d be doing damned well if we could cut that bill down to $1200. We eat well, not a lot of snack foods and fluff either.
Yes, they are fine if they tackle their high interest and family debt as they have good income and good assets. I have no idea why the recommendation was not to pay back the high interest credit card debt first and the family member debt and to try to HELOC to do both if possible. In addition to the 1500/month surplus, they also could cut back on travel and entertainment a lot. Also, why are they leasing a car – pretty much never makes sense.
I don’t know why I click through on those G&M finance stories, I always end up angry.
They have $2.1MM in assets and $1500/mo in surplus on only $973k liabilities. Their rental is cash positive, worth $685k on a $322k mortgage. They could easily HELOC against it and pay back the $103k family debt. Why are they carrying a CC and a LOC (assuming they would specify HELOC)? They have $11,440 net a month.
Monthly net employment income: $11,440
Assets:
Bank accounts $1,050
her TFSA $1,100
her RRSP $9,815
estimated present value of her defined benefit pension $686,880
RESP $16,000
residence $704,000
rental property $685,000.
Total: $2.1-million
Monthly outlays:
Residence mortgage $2,645
home insurance $75
property taxes $350
utilities $320
water, sewage, garbage $75
home maintenance $285
garden $50
car lease $275
car insurance $265
fuel $175
car repair and maintenance $150
groceries and cleaning supplies $900
clothing $85
child care $40
credit cards, credit lines $485
loan payments to family $1,250
personal care $50
dining out, drinks, entertainment $525
pets $90
children’s activities $440
other discretionary $120
phones, TV, internet $325
gifts $100
travel $500
life insurance $270
health care $25
RRSP $25
RESP $50
Total: $9,945
Surplus: $1,495
Liabilities:
Residence mortgage $494,410
rental mortgage $322,545
line of credit $43,500
credit cards $9,650
loans from family $103,015
Total: $973,120
Reminds me of one of Dave Ramsey’s favourite lines: “You cannot out-earn your stupidity.”
Locals, of course — 95% of whom probably weren’t born and raised here. Heh.
The liberals got rid of income splitting years ago. I think it was it in effect one or two years after the conservatives introduced it.
Not so. For example, pension income splitting is not contingent on the couple having children.
The real point is that income splitting only applies to certain special cases. There is no income splitting in the general case.
Pent up supply close to exhausted? No weakness in demand yet.
Post Labour day surge in new listings doesn’t seem to be happening. New lists trending down for a couple weeks now, no sign of an uplift after labour day like we normally see.
We can debate semantics but even with the huge increase in activity, single family sales over $2M represent just 4-5% of sales.
Super high end I suspect is now over 3 million and you might make an argument for over four. Certainly high end is over two mile.
No but over $2M is. In normal months we only have 5-10 of those sales. I very much doubt that market exploded because debt got slightly cheaper.
To those discussing income splitting earlier, did you know income splitting only applies to couples that have children? In my case ,my spouse is unable to work because of a disability (though also does not qualify for disability as that criteria is quite difficult.) But because we do not have children, we can’t split our income. (I’m all for credits for kids, but only letting people with kids split their income seems quite unfair.)
Leo – are you saying $1 million plus down-payment is super high end in this town? Disagree.
You think the low rates really drive the super high end?
Not sure, I don’t have a handle on the buyers of high end places. Anecdotally from a RE lawyer there have been a lot of inquiries from out of country buyers, so that’s something to watch (July foreign buyer sales were 11 which we haven’t seen for some time, but not high end properties). Buyer origin data is out for the first half of the year, but no uptick in out of town buyers.
20k a year in interest to borrow $1 million at current mortgage rates. It’s pretty much free money assuming you can qualify.
Who are the people buying these high end properties? Locals or out of towners.
Victoria couple with $210k income and drowning in debt. How do people do that? https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-how-can-debt-laden-pauline-and-perry-prioritize-paying-off-family
High end still stupid active. Avg price at $1.13M month to date. 2 sales at ~$9M in the last 3 days, and 10 sales over $2M! We normally don’t even get there in an entire month
It’s looking more and more like Site C will end up costing $15-20B (they said it would be $6B) and, if ever completed, there would still be a decent possibility that, any day, the dam structure fails catastrophically.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/09/11/Site-C-Radical-Risky-Makeover/
Alternatively, she and her brother just saved on demo permits, helping to expedite the building of their “dream homes”.
The Covid numbers, especially the rapid rise in hospitalizations is discouraging. This may not just be a small statistical burp but I really hope I am wrong.
My experience with property managers in B.C. has been excellent. Tenants have been screened thoroughly and with the exception of a few minor glitches in the last 30 years, I’ve rarely lost any sleep over my properties. It helps that one was an ex- RCMP officer and knows how to investigate applicants. I actually feel they are taking care of the properties as if they were their own. I’ve heard of endless nightmares in other parts of the country and feel that B.C. has more responsible people who respect and appreciate the opportunity to live in a quality property. Having your house torched by an idiot is probably a rare event on the Island. Hope I’m not wrong.
Highlighting the critical importance of tenant selection, in one news story:
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/landlord-says-she-called-police-twice-before-suspicious-fire-1.24200846
This looks intriguing. Anyone know if this building is well constructed?
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22349525/102-21-erie-st-victoria-james-bay
Marko the twelve bookings were they for single family or condos.
Can anyone recommend a contractor/company for hardwood flooring, office shed trim replacement and other small fixes in the house? Is it a record busy season for the contractors too!!!
Just went to book 12 showings over the weekend and 10 have accepted offers…..what the…..going to be a record breaking September.
Unfortunately that’s all we’re relying on at this point.
The more astute of you will realize, that was not my point. 🙂
Local Fool, please expand a bit on how government is not coming to the rescue during the pandemic.
Is it today the first time that BC has higher new Covid cases than AB (since April or May)? I really don’t understand why BC wouldn’t make indoor (public places) mask mandatory in higher density city areas such as Vancouver as in Calgary and Edmonton?
Covid numbers today are not heading in the right direction. Hopefully school opening is not going to create a spike.
Yeah, there are a few cheesy mentions in that article. This one may be better.
Our governments have built a ponzi scheme economy, and millennials are left holding the bag. PS, I’m not a millennial
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/oecd-why-millennials-are-falling-out-of-the-middle-class.html
Lol, one of the things mentioned that makes millenials lives harder:
“Millennials are overwhelmed by the dating pool.”
Yes, generation X had it so much easier by because they only had 2 people to choose from when dating!
At this point, I think Frank is trolling.
Nobody can be that willfully blind.
From “Business Insider” – not exactly a lefty rag.
https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-lives-compared-to-gen-x-baby-boomers-did-2018-3
It’s sad that so many Canadians were in the position that they desperately needed government help to sustain themselves. In a truly strong country, the people should have had sufficient resources to weather a 3-6 month economic downturn. It’s the failure of our education system that ignores the teaching of any financial planning, investing options or responsible spending. But then again isn’t it the government that sets the curriculum that keeps us in the dark.
Decades of Liberal & Conservative governments have massively shifted the tax burden from their corporate donors, onto the middle class, while those same donors busted unions and sent middle class jobs overseas.
Yet people still vote for them.
*Thanks Fern
I love your sweet innocence.
Canadian citizens aren’t innately different from the citizens of other countries. But our government sure functions better than a lot of others, and that’s a huge reason why most of us feel like we live in a strong country and feel lucky to be here.
It’s as if some folks are living in an alternate reality. The federal government is literally coming to the rescue in dozens of ways during this pandemic.
Most of the tax breaks for couples over singles are when you become seniors.
There is all kinds of info our there if you are skeptical or interested. Examples, read: “Is it time single people got more tax breaks?” or “Unfair tax policies are putting a burden on women and seniors and need to be changed now”
I thought they already did?
Income splitting doesn’t do anything for 2 people that make the same amount.
It only does something for people where one person makes more than another. ie: Someone who makes $120k and their spouse $30k will pay more than a family where both people make $75k.
I think the Feds should eliminate income splitting. Two people already can live cheaper than one. A single person pays the same for cable/internet/landline/rent for a one bedroom apartment/property taxes if they own/if they only have one car, then the same for car insurance & most of the maintenance. If they go on a trip often they pay double for a nice condo rental in Mexico. I realize many married people here will not agree with this.
First year students at UVic, about one third of the out of town students moved to Victoria from outside Victoria this fall. So 2/3 reduction in that group, but likely later year students are more likely to move back to Victoria.
Yes, mentally ill isn’t a choice. Not much they can do about it.
Totoro: “uneducated/abusive/religious/mentally ill”
Hmmm, one of these does not seem to belong. Bit of a low blow.
Pretty happy my family members have access to modern medicine. Home remedies of old do not, objectively, perform better than modern medicine for serious illnesses as far as I am aware. Lots of science-based evidence on this.
Really depends on the parents. If you have uneducated/abusive/religious/mentally ill parents who want to indoctrinate or control their children this is most definitely not the case. https://responsiblehomeschooling.org/policy-issues/abuse-and-neglect/abuse-in-homeschooling-environments/ In the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Spain, or example, homeschooling is illegal.
If you have relatively affluent educated parents willing to put the time into creating an excellent home-based education, the data shows there is a greater rate of college graduation vs the whole cohort of publicly educated children. However, if parents put time, energy and money into additional education opportunities for publicly educated students – such as tutoring, private projects, special classes, school involvement – this does not seem to be the case.
I personally know children who are now adults who come from both scenarios. In the first case the young adult now has a grade 5 education, has no friends, and suffers from depression – he was passed through the grades to a point by the homeschooling staff as part of policy and no-one ever enforced the requirement to submit work. In the second, the three young adults are doing well and in university. Government or virtual learning oversight for home schooled children really can’t be depended upon to monitor the environment of home schooled children in my experience and a less than ideal situation for the child will not be acted upon absent a report of abuse.
In reply to patriotz comments:
Let me present to you a different viewpoint.
Yes exactly, reducing the size of federal government is a just and Nobel goal.
By the very nature of large entities, one faces diminishing returns on investment.
Health care has become a conveyor belt to unnecessary pharmaceutical drugs that benefit the monopolistic structures in place that has displaced the tried and tested home remedies of old.
Schools have become indoctrination camps, home schooled children (or those taught in smaller settings) do FAR better than their public school counterparts.
Old age pensions, oh you mean after the government took 90% of your savings to fund their stakeholders pet projects, to put it kindly. Now it’s become a Ponzi scheme dependant on an ever shrinking labor force to fund it.
Vague ideals run ashore on the rocks of reality.
Was up at UVic yesterday. 90% of students were wearing masks and 100% of staff. Highest rate I’ve seen anywhere it is not mandatory. Encouraging to see. Hopefully we see this in schools as well.
Isn’t that Humber house owned by Peter Gustafson?
You mean spending less money on health care? Education? Old age pensions? That’s where the bulk of the money goes.
Vague goals run ashore on the rocks of reality.
In regards to the deficit, I’m in favour of reducing the size of government, eliminating foreign aid (they will never reciprocate), limit immigration to financially secure individuals (we don’t need any more people on welfare), and reduce taxes to keep money in the economy and out of the hands of inefficient government programs. This may seem a bit harsh but if we don’t take care of ourselves, no one else will come to rescue. The citizens of Canada are what make this country strong, not the government.
That was a reasonable price for Humber.
I’ve always thought that the GST shouldn’t have been reduced from 7% to 5%, but I don’t expect an attempt to raise it in the coming months. It would hit consumer spending during a recession that has been very hard on some sectors, and in any case the NDP probably wouldn’t go along with it, since they (wrongly IMHO) have never liked consumption taxes in the first place.
3195 Humber
Original List: $29,000,000 in 2008.
For sale nearly continuously since 2013.
Last list: $11,499,000
SOLD: $9,500,000
Took 5 agents and more than a decade but they got er done!
Congrats to the new owner of likely the only Victoria property with a desalination plant.
Totoro: The renovation are on the place I am moving to. But it is a good time to sell a SFH.
Increasing the capital gains tax will only decrease the supply of homes for sale as investors like myself will hold onto their properties longer, at least until we get rid of those clowns in Ottawa, especially Bozo.
Trudeau will bump GST two points, increase tax on dividends to eliminate the the difference between large salaried employees, and increase the taxable capital gains from 1/2 to 2/3’s.
Inflation is already here and been here for a very long time for low income individuals who only spend money on rent, food, education, fuel and other critical necessities.
As a low level consumers of new goods we pay less than average GST. Doesn’t seem super fair though as this impacts low income folks more than high income folks and homeowners continue to benefit over renters.
Right now you’ll probably get multiple offers as is Barrister. Ask advice from a realtor if you are using one. I don’t know what will happen in the fall/winter season but now is a good time to sell.
My guess is that Trudeau in order to pay for all his new initiatives and Covid payouts, is going to up the GST from 5 to 7%.
That’s probably the way I’d go, unless there was something so distasteful to potential buyers that it must be dealt with.
What if we never repay the national debt?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-what-if-we-never-repay-the-national-debt/
I am trying to hurry up the renos with absolutely no success in order to move to a nice small town. But it is a major restoration so it is one step forward and, at times, two steps back. Thinking that maybe I should just pack up this place and put the house on the market now.
Well, completed a pre-qualification process for a mortgage.
A lot more information and vetting required by major banks than eight years ago – and very, very slow unless you have an offer in hand. We’ve been in the process for a month now and we submitted all documents and follow ups required the same day as requested. Explanation given was that the bank is swamped with accepted offers they needed to vet and the vetting process is very time consuming. However, rates are super low. We were offered sub 2%.
I can report that the market is a difficult one for buyers so even having financing doesn’t mean there is anything to buy or that you will be successful in your bids – we’ve failed in two offers so far. Up island has less pressure, but many out of town buyers looking there at the moment. Not sure how local people can compete with that.
We get asset inflation now instead of consumer price inflation. Outcome of global supply and weak labour pricing power. And central banks are still focused on the latter rather than the former.
Many boomers are still haunted by 1981: they think inflation is lurking around every corner.
That last graph is remarkable.
Makes me think that, 40 years from now, millennials and Gen Z are going to be bitching about this recession just as much as the boomers still bitch about 1981 today.
Employment impact very different than previous recessions
No one got the forecast right.
From the BCREA commentary
10x less ambitious than it should have been. Even with Ontario getting the vast majority of funding it’s a drop in the bucket in terms of supply.
Some sign they are shifting local government to more supply friendly policies though. That is hopeful.
That is an interesting article. Millennials already make up the biggest voting block in Canada. However, 43% of them now own a home so seems unlikely they will swing the vote on things like taxing homeowner capital gains or other policy changes that would reduce prices to create greater equity of access to the market. https://abacusdata.ca/the-rising-political-power-of-millennials/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-shortchanged-national-housing-fund-cmhc-1.5714660
Looks like the National Housing Strategy ended up just being a vote buying strategy for the Liberals.
“The era of globalisation to we are likely waving goodbye saw the best combined asset price growth of any era in history, with equity and bond returns very strong across the board. The Age of Disorder threatens the current high global valuations, especially in real terms,” said the report.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-is-on-the-cusp-of-a-new-era-says-deutsche-strategist-and-heres-what-it-means-for-markets-11599589831
What I think is happening is that those at the lower end of earnings lost their jobs, so avg wages way up (+13.5% for service industry)
Thanks for this great post Morrissey. I appreciate everything you said. Its really sad what has happened to this city and province. I really miss the Victoria of yesteryear. It wasn’t perfect but it wasn’t this unequal. Not as many rich but not as many poor. A happier time. Trying to stay hopeful things will get better.
Haha, true.
Been a lot of activity in Vic West as of late… in the 1990’s most people would not even cross the bridge.
715 Catherine st. in Vic West
Sold in 2016 – $570k
Listed in 2018 – $759k
Sold in 2018 – $729k
Listed in 2020 – $885k
New townhomes on Wilson walk are listed at $760-840k
Be interesting to see if they cover holding costs or actually get anything close to what they ask.
Cool. Courtney is a nice little town. Problem is, now your screen name doesn’t work.
Pulled the trigger on a $700k new build in Courtenay. Only time will tell whether this was a good or very bad time to buy on the island!
Weren’t we tied with Quebec City? Which has fared much better.
Change in unemployment rates from last year. Victoria is on the worse end of the scale, but of course we were basically lowest in the country back then.
Interesting times