Detached prices continue to surge but inventory builds
A quick preview of the August results as I’ll be out of wifi range again for a couple days. August was much the same as July in terms of sales and new listings as the delayed spring continued and pent up market activity from the spring continued to be burned up at a rapid pace.
The difference is that August sales and new listings are traditionally much slower than July, so the year over year comparisons will be even more impressive this month than before. August ended with 979 sales which is an all time record for the month. However single family sales actually slowed somewhat from an extraordinary July figure, despite more inventory on the market. In fact the build in single family inventory has been quite substantial from July, and not just in the high price ranges. Some relief for house hunters in that segment.
Taking up the slight slack in detached sales were townhouses which had an absolutely extraordinary month, with sales roughly double the August norm, blowing all historical norms out of the water. As I wrote last week, townhouses and duplexes stand to benefit from the pricey fully detached market.
Condos too had a decent month with some improvement over last year, but it’s clear that they have not benefited from the pent up market activity to the same degree as other sectors have. Prices tell the same story, with detached prices continuing to spiral upwards (despite a slight drop in the average, the median continued to rise), townhouses starting to show gradual upward price pressure, while condo prices haven’t budged in a year.
The over-ask situation was similar to the last couple months, with one in four (26%) detached properties going over ask, while less than one in twenty condos did (4%). Townhouses were somewhere in the middle, with one in eight going over ask.
We know that the current market doesn’t tell us much about the steady state we will arrive at in the coming months (likely 8-12 months before we start to see the real post-COVID economy). The stimulative effect of ultra low rates will continue (creeping below 1.5% for shorter fixed terms), but we are only one or two months from the end up of pent up demand, and rapidly approaching the deferral cliff that the CMHC has been warning about.
Early data on that from secondary lenders was promising, with the large majority of mortgage deferrals already resolved and a current deferral rate of just 5.9%. However the big banks are still reporting 13.5% of mortgages in deferral for the last quarter. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense that their portfolios would be performing so much more poorly, so the large difference may be partially due to what is being reported rather than real deferral rates. Also when you can apply for a deferral in your banking app with no questions asked, that’s going to drive a lot more discretionary deferrals than if you have to make a call to plead your case. We won’t know the real rate of owners in trouble until the end of this quarter. What we do know is that the time of no questions asked deferrals is over. Some will no doubt continue, but there will be a lot of hard conversations with the lenders first.
Don’t expect a wave of foreclosures in the fall though, most owners who are in trouble will be far better off trying to list their properties on the open market first. With prices stable or up since pre-pandemic so far, that may be a quick way to get out from an unmanageable debt. The formal foreclosure process takes months, so if we do see some owners forced into that route it likely won’t show up in foreclosure listings until early next year.
On the income side, it’s clear that there will be no hard dropoff after CERB ends. In fact it’s hardly accurate to say that CERB is even ending at all, it is merely losing the E, and continuing for another 6 months at a slightly reduced level of payments as the CRB. Will there be an income support cliff in 6 months? It may just be another gentle step down instead.
New post: I’ll add the monday numbers in a bit. 210 sales, 289 new listings, 2579 current inventory
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/09/08/employment-continues-to-recover-but-the-easy-gains-are-over
“Everyone talks the talk when it comes to real estate commissions and then everyone to at the end of the day pays 30k+ to sell an average home in Victoria….it makes zero sense. I offered mere posting for 10 years and the demand for them decreased over that time span.
I had many clients do a successful mere posting and than years later phoned me back to sell another place and opted for full service.
Massive commissions are here to stay for the time being, I see zero creative business models popping up locally.”
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What percentage of people ask for commission discount when buying and selling from their realtor, if it was a fairly straight forward buy and sell in the average home value of between 1MM and 1.5MM?
One of the reasons we sold our home in the Okanagan was smoke. Every August like clockwork for the past five years or so there has been serious smoke in the air there from major wildfires, sometimes to the point that you couldn’t see down the block and vehicles are covered in ash. I haven’t found smoke to be a serious issue in Victoria at all – I’d classify the effect as pretty mild and transient here.
I wonder if one of the consideration future retirees eyeing Victoria as a place to retire to, will be the prevalence of smoke in the summer. I remember as a kid (in some respects, not all that long ago) you’d never see this.
Now over the last several years smoke blanketing everything is almost becoming a rule, and it’s not something that’s good to breathe in all the time.
I woke up and I could smell it in the house before ever looking outside.
Everyone talks the talk when it comes to real estate commissions and then everyone to at the end of the day pays 30k+ to sell an average home in Victoria….it makes zero sense. I offered mere posting for 10 years and the demand for them decreased over that time span.
I had many clients do a successful mere posting and than years later phoned me back to sell another place and opted for full service.
Massive commissions are here to stay for the time being, I see zero creative business models popping up locally.
As Totoro said, it’s not worth it. You will spend 3-6 months on the class, pay about $4000, and then have few advantages over just doing a FSBO for a fraction of the cost. Also many brokerages will not let you sell your own house as a Realtor so it’s problematic anyway. The only advantage you have is access to the database so you can do some more in-depth research when selling your place, but you can get 95% of the way there just getting a PCS/Portal account with any realtor and looking at sales for similar properties to what you are selling.
You don’t need to. You can already list on mls yourself for a small fee (like $400-$500) and pay no commission or a buyer’s commission you set. I’ve done it. I’ve sold without a realtor once and I’ve purchased all my homes without a realtor. FSBO.ca
Question for discussion….my elderly parents downsized from their downtown Victoria home in the last year. The whole process from meeting the realtor to the house being sold took approximately 1 month. They had an offer that they accepted within 3 days of listing. Commission was close to 80k. This is somewhat crazy to me. Has anyone seriously considered becoming licensed as a Realtor themselves to represent the sale of their own home? Has this thought crossed other people’s minds?
R Haysom- I had the same problem when trying to access my equity to purchase the commercial building I was renting for eight years. My rent easily covered the payments plus the building came with a well established tenant on the second floor. On top of everything, the price was a steal, my landlord just didn’t want the hassle anymore and offered it to me. The banks just could not see the no brainer of a deal I was getting. I am convinced it’s a case of ageism as I am also in my 60’s. I had the option of selling a property in Langford and was informed by my property manager that my tenant suddenly passed away. That was in the spring of 2017 when the market was hot. Not sure if owning a commercial property in Winnipeg was a better investment than the property in Langford, only time will tell. I do have a lot less debt which is a good thing.
Yep that’s the problem with high house prices. Misallocation of funds into unproductive assets. Not sure if opening the flood gates of equity extraction is the answer, but it’s a real problem for a consumer spending driven economy.
1845 Fairburn Drive. 6700 sqft for a paltry $2M, and a claimed $160k in gross annual rent income, $113k net.
https://www.rew.ca/properties/2817135/1845-fairburn-drive-saanich-bc
Who’s gonna bite?
I’m one of the 1.2 million Canadians that deferred my mortgage payments for 6 months. Why did I do it ? Well basically I’m retired and because my income is all rental I am unable to remortgage any of my properties because “the numbers” don’t add up to allow me to refinance to withdraw any equity out of my properties as equity now “stands for nothing” as far as the banks go. So, deferring mortgage payments was a great way to access some of the equity while still collecting rent.
It is absurd that people with huge amounts of equity have no way of accessing it other than selling their property.
The government would release huge injections of cash into the economy if they would only reverse this ridiculous regulation. Yes, it was abused by some previously but there are very easy ways to prevent that and allow people to access their equity especially retired people who have substantial amounts. If the government allowed up to 50% withdrawal of equity without qualifying would release a huge amount of cash injection into the economy. Ironically the government allows access to equity through reverse mortgages but anyone with financial savvy can see these are terrible instruments with their very onerous rules and unrealistically high interest rates. Only a desperate person with last resort would consider a reverse mortgage in their current form.
LeoS: “We won’t know the real rate of owners in trouble until the end of this quarter. ”
… and maybe we don’t want to.
https://www.ratespy.com/mortgage-deferrers-are-weaker-borrowers-090415661
The total number of Canadians with mortgage payment deferrals
About 1.2 million Canadians have deferred at least one mortgage payment between March and July
This is much higher than the Canadian Bankers Association numbers you see in the papers — because it includes mortgages from non-banks as well.
Approximately 600,000 consumers were still deferring mortgage payments on July 31.
New deferral requests are being accepted at most big banks until the end of this month.
In Sum
25% bigger mortgages
46-point worse credit scores
16-percentage point higher credit usage.
In short, a very large number of deferrers need deferrals.
I was just joking totoro! BC just has the most options available compared to the rest of the provinces. I agree about some form of reciprocal health care transfer agreements between provinces etc. but certainly don’t pretend to know how they would go about implementing the plan….I’m getting to old and my brain (as you probably can tell),. just doesn’t function as well as it used to especially when getting into complicated terminology & processes….but thank goodness my simple logical abilities are still functioning satisfactorily.
As for healthcare spending, there should be an adjustment to federal health care transfers to compensate for interprovincial migration effects. Fairly easy solution which conforms with mobility rights.
I guess there is nothing we can do about it, but one thing that really bothers me is this: People can live pretty well their entire lives up to the age of say 65 without ever going into a hospital except at birth. Many including my parents never took any regular meds for such illness’s such as diabetes, high cholesterol, high blood pressure etc. and they never had a hospital stay. But once you become a senior, eventually you see the doctor more, have hospital stays, go into nursing homes, have many medical issues requiring prescriptions etc. BC is the retirement hub of Canada. So most seniors that used to live in other provinces and countries weren’t a burden on their medical systems while they were young. Then they move to BC and they become a huge burden on BC taxpayers and the other provinces/countries get off for free.
Property Tax Deferral:
There are various Property Tax Referral Systems in place across Canada. BC seems to be the most lenient for sure.
Basically……
Alberta: over 65 with 25% equity in your home,
BC : Pretty well any circumstances it seems
Ontario: Low income seniors & persons with disabilities
Halifax: Family income less than $32K
I don’t think the government could ever influence the real estate prices in B.C. It just happens to have several advantages over other provinces: 1) The most temperate climate in the country. 2) Being a coastal province gives it countless opportunities for shipping, trade, etc… 3) The natural beauty makes it a tourism Mecca. 4) An abundance of resources. This provides unlimited opportunity, and draws people from around the world. B.C. is a rich province, therefore, the economics dictate higher prices for everything.
An array of taxation policies:
– low property taxes.
– no capital gains on principal residences.
– no imputed rental income on principal residences.
– property tax deferral.
Weak enforcement which encourages the use of RE for money laundering, tax evasion, and parking of offshore assets, now finally being addressed in BC.
Plus government assistance in borrowing to buy RE. It would be considered insane to offer such assistance in the stock market.
And why would we expect the effect to be uniform everywhere? All RE markets have their own local factors. Physical limits versus no physical limits. Population growth versus population shrinkage. Plus different provincial polices. Do you think it’s a coincidence that BC has both the highest RE prices and a property tax deferral scheme unheard of anywhere else?
What policy specifically? And why is this effect you speak of not seen uniformly across the country?
Government policy makes a difference, but some places to live are better than others and so supply and demand come into play.
The root cause of the housing crisis is government policies which encourage the use of housing as a place to park money, rather than simply a place to live.
@ Barrister – I’m not from Alberta & have watched the DTES descend into 3rd world conditions over the last decade, with tent cities popping up all over this province while many of us were gaslit and called racists for raising the alarm about selling our homes offshore.
Ottawa, with the help of the BC Liberals, created massive wealth inequalty. They’re ignoring the suffering they created here and are propping up Ontarians at our expense.
We’re ground zero in BC for the Chinese fentanyl crisis & money laundering.
What have the feds done about it? Any port police? Any federal RCMP investigating money laungering here? Any convictions? Nada.
And now we find that our housing crisis and suffering is being ignored to benefit of other parts of the country?
They don’t give a damn about us. They only care about the centre of the Canadian universe. Ottawa set the immigration policies that are the actual root cause of all this mess.
I fail to see how being part of this country is of any benefit to BC.
I am predicitng 8,000 +/- 100 for the year at this point.
The article does not cite any statistics for the claimed migration. “Special to The Globe and Mail” means outside content, in this case from a writer who specializes in RE puff pieces.
So is small town BC any city outside of Vancouver?
Small-town B.C. sees a rental boom as people migrate from urban centres
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-small-town-bc-sees-a-rental-boom-as-people-migrate-from-urban/
Morrisey: Now you sound like someone from Alberta. The feds have been transferring from the have provinces, and BC is now a have province, for a long time. Nothing new here. I am old enough to remember when BC was a have not province which constantly got handouts.
Nice to blame the feds for everything but we did more of our fair share in digging our own hole. It also feels like we are still digging.
This is outrageous. BC has been left to rot by Ottawa. It’s intentional.
We are a cash cow propping up the rest of the country.
They’ve infested us with foreign wealth parasites, money launderers, and Chinese drug triads that forced housing prices to go stratospheric, putting us into massive amounts of housing debt, while crime increases and our friends and family die of overdoses on and off the streets.
There is no benefit to BC being part of this country.
0.5% of federal housing funds while they’ve screwed us????
Voting Liberal is supporting corruption. Not that the Cons weren’t party to this garbage when they held power.
Year to date sales.
God bless.
Seems like mostly local demand then…
Total sales and new listings almost at all time highs.
MOI still declining, basically back to pre-covid downward trend.
Average price is 95% noise, 5% signal, so that’s normal to go up and down.
For MLS HPI, I also wouldn’t read too much into it. I think the MLS HPI glitched a little in the last few months, possibly due to the unprecedented shift in sales which confused their algorithms (see turquoise line below). Current market conditions for detached/semi point to price increases with the caveat that we are in a very distorted market right now.
Leo, I see that in the new release you had posted, both average prices and HPI decreased month over month, but the sales to listings ratio is well in excess of 40%, indicating a strong upward pressure on prices. Can you help to explain this apparent discrepancy? Thx.
If you are using an alternative lender, there is also the risk that they may call the mortgage because they are unable to raise money themselves. That may not apply to you, but remember that housing downturns are led by the people who are in trouble, not the people who aren’t.
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2020/07/latest-in-mortgage-news-economic-slowdown-hitting-alternative-lenders-hard/
I’ve been through the renewal process a number of times. It has been an automatic and at competitive rates. In fact, if you take no action your mortgage agreement may auto renew. I really doubt that legally deferring or skipping payments will be used by banks to deny renewals, but failing to make scheduled payments that have not been deferred, plus a significant drop in credit score, could – some might be in this position due to covid.
National housing strategy shortchanges BC. Piles of applications stuck in bureaucratic quagmire https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/dan-fumano-b-c-receives-less-than-one-per-cent-of-federal-housing-funding/wcm/fad61ad6-3229-4c4e-80ca-0dcca5e1420e/
But they might make you an offer you can’t refuse – renew at higher rate because they know you can’t go elsewhere.
I think Victoria will not see a drop in prices as the economy worsens, given the demand for property and the high proportion of government workers in the city. Other parts of Canada will not be as lucky.
Banks will consider a 6 month deferral as nonperforming if the owners do not resume making payments and initiate foreclosure within 60 days. I seem to remember massive foreclosures in the U. S. in 2008. That’s when thousands of Canadians picked up properties at discount prices.
They can but they won’t. If house prices dropped precipitously that means they will have their hands full with foreclosures and won’t be keen to turn their performing loans into non-performing loans. In the US there were millions of people underwater in 2008 and this didn’t happen to any substantial degree
Spoke to my friend , a retired mortgage broker, and he confirmed that the banks are not obligated to renew a mortgage. If you’ve been a perfect customer and never missed a payment, you’re fine at renewal time. If you’ve been a pain they can refuse to renew the mortgage leaving you to search for alternative financing, probably at a much higher interest rate. They can also require additional capital to lower the amount of the mortgage. I would expect that they will be looking at people who needed to defer their mortgage unfavourably at renewal time and make things even more difficult for them.
Floor areas are objective and should be 100% accurate. BC Assessment values are estimates that aren’t bad but have a lot of inconsistencies. Basing condo fees off of B.C. Assessment values would lead to a lot more appeals.
Using BC Assessment value would seem pretty straightforward.
https://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseFull.pdf
Vic West and Esq gains seemed be hot as well.
Comparatively, that’s a smokin’ deal. More than an acre of south facing, and I suspect the development a few lots down has probably opened the door to carving it up into 3 or 4 lots. They were selling the new places down the road for ~4 mil each.
There is a place on Beach drive for 3M and the boxy white house at the junction of KGT and Beach recently went for 3.
Seems weird talking about ‘value’ for a 4M place.
Not much appreciation on the 2001 sale either.
Really the best appreciation over the last 10 years has been your basic box in Gordon Head.
273 King George Terr
Sold 2010 $3,850,000
Sold 2020 $3,800,000
Don’t see that every day.
Courts are going to be very backed up
Insolvencies making a comeback after a Covid break.. it will be interesting to see if Covid relief saved a few people and businesses that were tanking before the pandemic. Maybe there are pent up insolvencies that are going to appear like the pent up housing demand that hit. I can imagine that wage subsidies, debt and rent relief gave life lines to many businesses and folks that were already failing before the pandemic.
https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-canadians-household-debt-and-insolvencies-are-creeping-up-again-after-covid-hiatus
Nothing easy that I’m aware of. For that kind of monthly return you’ll need at least 600k invested. You could possible put in a suite for 50k if your home is suitable for this and you are handy, rent it out, and invest the remainder and get to this number.
Trying to get permits for a new SFH build in the COV and yes the policies just go from ridicolous to more ridicolous….now they want location of all light fixtures and switches (unheard of on SFH residential construction) on plans amongst other nonesense…like specs on fireplace? We’ve never ever bought a fireplace before commencing construction.
So now have to go back to designer at $100/hr to draw in completely useless location of light fixtures/switches that will be in completely different spots when the house is build. Genius.
Doing everything they can in their power to drive up cost of housing yet all council talks about is affordable housing. Makes sense.
https://www.victoria.ca/assets/Departments/Planning~Development/Permits~Inspections/Application~Forms/Section%20B%20Part%202%20-%20Residential%20Exterior%20Building%20Checklist%2011.17.pdf
I was listening to this recently (a chat with some passive house folks, one of whom is the builder of Corvette landing): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D80vdVRtXmE
They talk about the number one barrier to PH being municipalities and red tape. I like to complain about having to write the owner builder exam but holy smokes my brain would implode having to deal with that level of bureaucracy! I do really like Vancouver’s concept of allowing a higher FSR for high performance buildings. It’s free for them and provides an incentive to builders.
Not sure if that would change things that much. Two places with recent sales in the Promontory. The unit that was exactly twice as big sold for 2.45 times as much. So switching to by value would get the big units to pay more (and create a hell of a lot of fights in strata about values)
My strata in Croatia is trying to increase strata fees for the dog owners (they use the elevator more, etc). complete **** show following all the emails 🙂
~~~
just curious about the financial/investment set up.
say I have 300k mortgage left and have 350k ( in both cash, tax-free accounts for both myself and my wife). I wonder what kinds of investment would be able to cover the mortgage payment ( 2000-2500 range)? I know on my end, the risk is the interest rate that might go up and down, so the income/dividend are not that stable. I have been taking out our Home Line of Credit and use them towards dividend-paying EFTs and use the dividend towards the mortgages in which release more Home Line of Credit each month ( being doing it for the last 6 years)…
TIA.
Maybe some things should be apportioned by unit value instead of sqft. Seems fairer for truly common things (roof, elevator, foundation, envelope, etc).
Over 20 emails this weekend asking for help with the owner builder bs exam….have to love uselss government policies that makes housing unaffordable…
And this is why I’ve been constantly preaching buy super small for the last 10 years. I have a unit at the Bayview Promontory that is 430 sq/ft and the average unit size is north of 900 sq/ft so you make off like a bandit whether it be elevator maintenance or strata insurance. The 1,200 sq/ft units can’t use the elevator anymore than the 430 sq/ft unit by they pay 3x for it.
I believe banks can do whatever they want. You might not require more capital, but not get the best interest rate available at the time. There’s a reason mortgage documents are pages long, anyone ever read the entire thing?
Ks112: I know what Marko meant, I was being flip. What is a seemi luxury condo by the way.
Have never heard of this happening. If you keep paying the mortgage they will let you renew no problem. But your renewal offer will very likely not be particularly competitive since they have you over a barrel.
They don’t care if the mortgage is insured, because they are guaranteed their principal back anyway. Things get interesting if it’s uninsured and the equity drops below 20%. They are within their rights to demand you get mortgage insurance, and if you don’t qualify things might get interesting. But maybe they won’t.
Is this actually true? Do banks ever demand more capital on renewal of an existing mortgage?
Condo insurance @ Mt Washington for the building in which my family owns. Up 85% from last year, 110% from two years ago. No recent claims. Yikes.
If the increase were apportioned equally to the owners (it isn’t because the units are different sizes) the increase would be about $700 per unit per year. Not huge but significant. For context owning a paid off unit in that building currently costs about $7000 per year for condo fees, taxes, contents and liability insurance, minimal electricity and basic internet service, so this one item is now driving a 10% increase in costs.
how do you think about 2% down from their listing price? would 1.5% discount as crack?
About food consumption/waste during the pandemic:
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/09/01/food-waste-increasing-survey/
Marko or anyone else who might know, how accurate are the strata fees in the MLS listings, are they last year’s numbers or are they current? I believe for the Aria they are not the current numbers, I am looking at possibly a semi luxury condo if prices start to crack.
Barrister, I think Marko meant that for the 25 years his parents has rented the suite they have only experienced 2 months of vacancy which was planned. He is not saying it is the same people living in that suite for 25 years.
Marko: Who goes to school for twenty five years?
And thank goodness, as 1M would simply be too expensive. 🙂
What’s “Langford”?
Oh god, how could I forget Langford?
Langford.
One of my parents students left so they had to re-rent the room in the suite and had 10+ student applications within two days. Room is $650/month so the suite is $1,300 per month which is a solid clip imo.
Other than one two month renovation no vacancy in 25 yrs.
Oh yeah was looking at Greater Vic: $1,002,604. But -2.3% no big shift.
$998,291 isn’t over a million last time I checked 🙂
All I can say is I have done two land assemblies with different owners in my career and would never ever do something like that again. 10x easier to sell three random SFHs than to get three owners to sell a land assembly together.
And there is no political appetite for beginning to pivot away from the Tar Sands. At present, no party can run on that platform and have a hope of forming government. Notley’s NDP is all in on Big Oil, just like the UCP.
Calgary is one of the only cities I can think of where sprawl is the goal.
Seeking advice from one & all on HHV.
Regarding the potential & experienced pitfalls of entering into a group sale for a condo/towhouse development project. (Off topic but perhaps perennially interesting.)
A rather dilapidated corner duplex on my block in Victoria neighbourhood is going up for sale & the surrounding homes are being enquired about. No offers or proposals yet but seems like a development proposal is in the works.
This exact scenario was proposed in 2013 – a plan that fell through. Besides pitting neighbours against each other overall there was a squeeze on 2 properties specifically. Those owners were not made an offer even though it was well known that the developers considered those 2 properties essential to their project. The 4-story 30-unit condo complex with underground parking threatened to engulf these 2 properties to the point the owners in no way wanted to live next to it & reluctantly felt they should probably join in. It was believed that the developers were well aware of how severely negative the impact would be to their homes & lives & that initially leaving them out was a strategy to lowball the offer they would certainly eventually make to those owners. The developer ultimately withdrew all offers for unknown reasons.
Most of those homes involved in 2013 were sold to new owners who are unaware of this past scenario. The prospect of a windfall is exciting but really is that how it works out usually? Is it likely that developers are ever willing to pay a significant or even any amount over the appraised value of a property?
This is why I am seeking to gather & share as much knowledge about everything that could possibly go wrong for those selling to a developer – individaully or as a part of group agreement.
Another experience from many years ago now – my family owned a farm in Surrey & put the land up for sale with five other surrounding 5-acre lots as part of a proposal for multiple single family homes. They ended up selling their farm for exactly half of the original offer of 2 million dollars. The reason given for the new offer was the unexpected discovery that Surrey planned a wilderness trail cutting through these properties & which the developers said would significantly reduce the scope of their plans. Unfortunately, my family sold, the many large homes & a new road were built but a wilderness trail was never ever created.
What else should folks be mindfull of? What other problems or issues could occur. Also, what even are the prospects for developers & are they even willing to start new condo developments with conditions here at this time (high price materials, labour availablity, current lower condo sales, current supply & prices, etc.?)
It is my feeling that if I wanted to sell today with high prices & demand for single family homes that I would be better off selling my property as a sfh, thus selling as an individual with full control over the price that I would be willing to accept versus being held hostage to whatever could occur as part of a group selling to developers who could endlessly & repeatedly drop the offering price due to “just discovered” issues.
So, all help is greatly appreciated. I read HHV everyday but still feel very innocent in this tricky world.
Nelson is the new Cumberland…
“Productivity tracking – how do you know employees aren’t on HHV all day, especially if they’re a new recruit who has yet to build trust?”
How would you know they aren’t doing that in the office without hovering over them all day? Genuinely curious.
By far the most slack ass place I’ve worked is a government cube farm. Everyone did 45 minutes to 1.5 hours of work per day depending on their mood, and the rest of the time they were on Facebook, Reddit, wandering around the office chatting to coworkers, etc.
Add a > as the first character in the line and then the text you want to quote after it. Then new line between that and your response. The formatting is markdown https://www.markdownguide.org/cheat-sheet/
Don’t tell me – it’s the “new Nelson”. 🙂
Newbie question – but how do I quote another post? Thanks
Patriotz – Cumberland is hopping now. That said, there are some growing pains there in terms of resources and school numbers. I also hear the odd bit of resentment toward the number of mountain bikers coming into town.
Chris – check out the place coming on the market at Tsimshian Ave – about as good a reno as you’re going to get on a box. I take back what I said when it comes to that one. Makes the others look overpriced (although this one doesn’t have a garage)
It’s tough for colocated orgs to go distributed. Lots of remote work fans came out on Twitter at the start of covid saying how this would be great, finally everyone can see what distributed teams are all about. Turns out, being a part of a traditional org forced into going remote in a short time span in the middle of a global pandemic does not provide the same quality of experience. Gee, who could have predicted it?
I would agree with all of Garden Suitor’s comments. I’ve worked from home successfully for 15 years, but my wife has just started (since covid). Some things their organization are finding tricky include:
Totoro: We also have a great supply of free venison although some skill with a bow is required.
How things change. I remember when people from the area regarded Cumberland as somewhat of a slum, best known as the place where Ginger Goodwin died and the site of Canada’s worst earthquake. 🙂
Actually Detroit has picked up a lot in the last decade as they explore alternate economic models. The city’s Case-Shiller RE index has almost doubled since the bottom in 2010. The Alberta government on the other hand is still betting everything on Big Oil. There is a lot in the media these days about processionals, particularly in health care, leaving.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petesaunders1/2018/07/19/detroit-five-years-after-bankruptcy/#57a6999dcfeb
Even when oil was doing well, I thought Calgary was far too expensive for a city with no physical limits to growth.
By the way Marko, SFH average nearly unchanged this month. Still over a million. Luxury sales down from July, but still up more than 3x from last year.
Chris – those Comox places are ok. But one is $624k and it still looks like it needs some updating. The pick is probably Cougar Cres, but purely because it backs onto trails.
If banks start foreclosing on home owners who are behind on their mortgage payments, the resultant drop in house prices could put many mortgages underwater. That would require home owners to come up with more capital when they renew their mortgage. That would be disastrous and the banks would have an even greater problem. Therefore I believe they will just kick the can down the road and allow further mortgage payment deferrals. I think they are well aware how serious this situation is and will act accordingly. They certainly have the earnings to absorb any losses. Forcing people to make their payments will only cause a bigger problem.
Great advice totoro
Leo, SFH’s in Comox Valley would be great and particularly Comox itself. Thank you!
Our students were so happy to move in today. They are returning from Alberta to stay again and the summer back home was tough on them. Basically work then home and no socializing with their peer group in-person. They may be limited here but at least they have a peer group bubble and the memories they make together.
I’m into cooking. I have an adult child who is too and we spend a lot of time on this together so, although this is completely off topic unless maybe you are saving for a down payment, please scroll past unless interested…
I think it is a bit about where you shop, but more about what you eat and your interest in cooking.
I usually get our dried beans in big bags at the Wholesale Club, our a friend picks up Better than Bouillon stock for us from Costco (best instant stock by far), and almost everything else at Fairway except spices which I get at Bulk Barn mostly, or grow. With Covid I have switched a bit to online ordering and pickup so now get things from Thrifty’s, Save-on and Walmart – which I didn’t do that much of before – especially not Walmart, but they actually have a good selection of dried beans and ethnic ingredients like ghee and tahini. I also have a large garden.
In order to reduce your expenses to $200/month/person or less if you are a meat-eater you need to reduce the amount of meat you eat/serving – think curry/stir fry/pizza/quiche/soup/pasta/chili/burritos instead of meat as a main. For produce you need to shop for what is in season or on sale and buy large sizes of staple goods if you have a family. When I was working full-time and the kids were little we used to batch cook once a month so having a freezer can be helpful.
Food quality and cooking techniques are pretty key, as is understanding food cultures where meat is treated as a small part of the dish the focus is on enhancing flavour with the use of spices/condiments/cooking techniques (ie. roasting vegetables). Great condiments and sauces make a difference and add little to the cost. I also really appreciate having excellent Japanese knives, a gas stove, an instant pot, Tiger rice cooker, kitchen aid mixer, ice cream maker, and Cuisinart.
Bonus – here is an impressive youtube channel for those who are into cooking: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoC47do520os_4DBMEFGg4A
I’ve engaged many overseas software devs and agencies over the years in tech. Time zone differences are a killer, along with general lack of quality (which is pretty standard with contractors unless you’re willing to pay higher rates to get the upper quartile). Most success I’ve seen is with embedding contractors directly as if they were employees, or setting a unit of a PM and 2+ devs and letting them run autonomously. The former doesn’t work with timezone differences generally (quality people have wanted to stay on their local time) and agencies with highly effective autonomous units generally command a higher price. Not as expensive as people in US/CA, but it starts to get to the point where you question the value given the difference in time zones.
Not too difficult. Lots of cheap staples (bread, potatoes, rice, beans etc), 100% home cooking, and minimal meat as totoro said. Drink water, skip the processed deserts and snacks.
It’s not that we don’t know how to eat cheaply, we just don’t because of convenience (and kids are picky so very hard to cook one family meal).
Recently sold our property in Victoria and had no trouble renting something until we find the right home. We had multiple properties to choose from and were able to secure something month to month. This was almost impossible to do when we initially wanted to move to Victoria in 2017. We ended up buying during bidding wars. So stressful. On the food budget side, baking your own bread is real money saver. Baguettes, pita, English muffins. Great recipes online and it works out to about 7c per loaf plus the cost of a bread machine working on the dough cycle then shape and bake it yourself. Yum!
It’s most certainly the case, but reduction in on-campus housing from 2200 to 800 units may have neutralized the reduction in students and rental impact won’t be that great.
re: food costs
With the temporary demise of face to face meetings gone is the “free”food source of leftover meeting food. I was able to stockpile some serious calories with end of day leftovers. Avoid the mayo containing items, though!
From a School Pandemic Plan document sent to parents:
“In the month of June, teachers noted that this important health protocol [washing hands] took up to one hour/day of instructional time.”
Another September 1st has rolled around, and I’m seeing just as many UVic students moving into rental houses in Gordon Head as in years past.
With mostly remote learning at UVic this fall, one might have thought that postsecondary students would be hunkering down with Mom and Dad this year to save money, but observationally that doesn’t seem to be the case.
So will Detroit’s.
thanks Leo
Where and how people shop to come in at $500 to $600 a month for 2 people?
My grocery spending seemed to be a bit excessive for 2 people and that doesn’t include dine out or take out. And, I would love to learn how to cut that spending down by $400 a month.
Yeah big upswing in prices up island. Medians around $600k for both central and north central island. Still it’s less than $900k here.
No issues on ours in place for about 20 years on a 70s build house. Pretty common to retrofit.
Last time I spent that little ($176/month/person) was 15 years ago in college with careful shopping. It’s more like $300 these days.
If I had any desire to invest in remote real estate, I would choose Calgary or Edmonton though. 10 years of flat prices mean there is minimal downside at this point. Haven’t looked in detail at cap rates but Alberta’s economic prospects will improve again at some point.
This will be interesting to follow. I think a good part of it will be temporary just like we have seen rolling shortages in all sort of materials. Doesn’t make sense that lumber is suddenly permanently massively inflated unless it’s inflation of everything.
But how many were previously looking at condos to now stretch for a townhouse or detached given lower interest rates? I think quite a few.
Condo inventory is already pretty high. I would start paying attention, but if you’re not in a rush it may be worth waiting for the fall at least to see what shakes out. Very low chance that we will see condo price appreciation right now, and decent chance it will get better for buyers.
As for interest rates, zero chance they will go up by 2021. They could well go down some more.
Prices, no one knows, but condos tend to do worse in downturns than detached homes based on historical data. What we don’t know yet is if this will actually turn into a downturn or not.
You should just the costco facebook group. Those people are nuts.
Stats were a bit goofy for a while still but seems to have mostly normalized, outside of months of inventory. What were you interested in up-island?
In theory yes, but that has been tried and in part reversed in recent years when the quality just wasn’t there. I could imagine a scenario where people work remotely in an area but once every two weeks come in for a company meeting / brainstorming in project groups. Big difference between 100% remote and 95% remote I think. It would allow companies to drastically cut down on office expenses, allow workers to work a bit further from the office if they’re only coming in once in a while, and likely preserve a lot of the intangible face to face value via occasional contact.
The real risk to salaries IMHO is that if remote working suits employers, they will move the jobs to places like India or Eastern Europe.
https://theline.substack.com/p/max-fawcett-tax-home-equity
It’s not just Vancouver Island, either.
Consider that SFHs in quaint little Revelstoke (pop. 7,500) are $567K on average.
In beautiful Squamish (pop. 19,500) they’re $961K.
It seems to me that there are no places left in the southern part of B.C. where a buyer can still get in on the “ground floor.”
https://www.revelstokemountaineer.com/just-the-stats-2019-revelstoke-real-estate-numbers-summary/#:~:text=The%20average%20sale%20price%20for,70%20from%2089%20in%202018.
https://www.zolo.ca/squamish-real-estate/trends
Interesting one out of Vancouver today and the impact of non-returning international students and the drop off of foreign investors. They are looking at an 8% drop in rental pricing already. It’s just amazing to see the big fluctuations in data as the pandemic goes on with sales spikes and etc…
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-sharp-drop-in-foreign-students-and-immigrants-slowing-real-estate
Full reno?
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22275792/1908-cougar-cres-comox-comox-town-of
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22236049/245-denman-st-comox-comox-town-of
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22239517/2150-gull-ave-comox-comox-town-of
Aside from 2011/12, is this the highest August we have in the last decade?
Sideliner: Definitely a tough market in Comox now. We moved here last January with the intention of buying in Cumberland or Comox. Things were looking promising at the end of last year, but Covid has added an extra $100k to a lot of properties. $500 – $600k for a box that needs a full reno. It’s crazy. I understand zoning and land restrictions in Van and Vic, but out here it’s just insane. My original comment was mostly in jest. Just can’t take the BC housing market seriously anymore.
On WFH: Do the pros – time & savings on commute out weigh the cons? I wonder if in a few months people will be clambering to get back in the office, once the isolation and routine of working in pyjamas kicks in. And what about the risk to salaries? Are companies going to be so keen to pay city wages if employees are living in cheaper, semi-rural locales? Might they even look to outsource abroad and make massive savings on employee expenses?
Leo, whatever happened to the up Island reporting?
Active listings picture is pretty interesting. It’s not that there is a very high number of properties on the market at any given time, but high new lists means active listings (number that were for sale during the month, not just at the end) jumped upwards for all categories. Condo active listings now approaching the highs in 2011.
Anyone ever install the retro fit windows? Any issues? Don`t want to destroy the cedar siding?
whoops, I meant $450-600 per month. Also, we, during covid, do takeout say once per week. I consider that as “restaurants & entertainment” part of our budget.
Yeah, mistake – 200/month/person. We spent $680/August for four adults at home and I also cook a full dinner for another family of five 2x/week. An additional $100 was spent on take-out.
Condo active listings up 66% from last August
Townhouse active listings up 45%
House active listings up 32%
979 sales for the month, identical to July.
Single family sales down ~13% from July, but up 42% from last August
Townhouse sales up 9% from July, up 109% from last August
Condo sales up 4% from July, up 22% from last August
wow….$200 per per per week? That would be $10,400 per year per person. So $41,600 per year for a family of 4. From what I can read, in 2019 the average family of four spent about $12,157 for groceries for the year. So just over $3000 per year per person.
They always say “groceries” then when they are actually talking about it, they (the articles) keep saying “food”. When I think of how much I pay for groceries it is for the entire grocery bill. Who breaks it down to just “food”? People spend a lot of money in plastics, paper, foil, cleaning supplies etc. I think of all this as the grocery bill. It is incredible really when you go from household to household to see the difference in usage of those non food items.
We eat extremely well. A full garden salad i.e. lettuce, tomatoes, cucumber, radishes, green onions and maybe peppers, mushrooms, blackberries etc. pretty well every evening meal plus some form of meat, fish or poultry. Plus we have a full breakfast and a snack for lunch. The evening meal usually includes a dessert as well.
The cost of our groceries for two is between $450 and $500 per month.
Just got off the phone with my contractors and the engineer. Two years before the renos are done (they hope )and we finally move. Looking forward to being in a small town. Wonder were the real estate market will be in two years?
When we visit, our family in Calgary always half-seriously implores us to move back.
However, I know that if we moved back to Alberta we’d likely never be able to return to Victoria and re-buy a detached house in a location that we want.
The writing is on the wall when it comes to Calgary RE. Meanwhile, I’m pretty confident Victoria’s prices will continue to increase slowly.
We do lots of that, and there’s some great recipes. But from time to time, the delight of baby back ribs slow cooked for 8 hours in root beer, Worcestershire sauce and all other kinds of spices, then BBQ’d with a coating of sweet baby rays….
It’s so delicious I’m not even sure it’s legal in British Columbia.
But as Porsche likes to say, there is no substitute. Now I might go buy some ribs at lunch, to hell with what it costs. 😛
They’re forcing you to send your kid back though or they lose their spot in their school, which has nothing to do with disadvantaged children.
The ballpark budget used by nutritionists for groceries is $200/person/week in Canada. We spend less than this. Easiest way to lower the bill is to reduce meat consumption. There are a lot of great bean-based recipes (Indian/Asian/Mexican) and instant pot makes cooking dry beans easy and you can freeze them for later use. Some good recipes with (US) price/serving here: https://www.budgetbytes.com/category/recipes/beansandgrains/
Canada’s bank regulator rolls back initiatives that eased mortgage payments
Children returning to school is imperative for those living in dysfunctional families. Their well being can be monitored and is a source of proper nutrition for many. Staying at home indefinitely could result in a great deal of harm to disadvantaged children.
Your average for 6 months work out to be $897.70 per month, minus the least and most months.
My average for 2 in the same period is $932.18 per month.
Yeah it’s brutal for the locals. Although Courtenay is my home, so no need for the welcome. Sold in 2012 and buying back in now is a tough pill to swallow. Didn’t own elsewhere in the mean time but luckily my business is doing well.
Influx of WFH and retirees has been a major component in the Comox Valley’s real estate demand for over a decade. Covid has just accelerated it. Unfortunately many locals will be priced out and things will change. Same issue all over Canada.
We’re not that diverse. 73% of the population is white.
Retirees and investor interest has continued to decline in 2020 to date (click to enlarge)
Introvert: Not sure what we spend but I feel like I am eating more than before. Fortunately, I am also walking more so I have not been putting on the pounds.
Most people are spending more at the grocery store but are ahead by what they are not spending at restaurants.
Sideliner – Welcome to the Comox Valley and thanks for pushing prices higher
An influx of WFH folks from Van & Vic is going to make the housing market even tougher here. Maybe people priced out will look up island to Sayward and Port Hardy. It feels like it’s going to make a lot of small towns more interesting and diverse. Let’s hope the novelty of this WFH lark doesn’t wear off.
For such a diverse country our Premiers sure are a vast variety of ages, colours and genders
We’re averaging just over $2400/month in 2020 — about $400/month more than our historical norm. Mostly organic, 95% scratch cooking, family of four.
Two people. Have no idea if this is high or low.
Jan $750.70
Feb $814.66
Mar $1,005.15
Apr $1,027.43
May $799.08
Jun $1,261.86
Jul $989.20
Aug $550.65
Victoria’s classic councilors who have never worked a real job posting a great vision for the city…
Our grocery expenses have gotten out of hand in 2020, so I’m breaking down and getting a Costco membership for the first time ever. I only hope I don’t become one of those insufferable people who can’t stop raving about Costco to anyone who will listen.
Was just in Calgary, their Costco game is strong. We buy 70% of our groceries at Costco and I hate how busy the Langford location is. with Covid it’s been a bit better though, less boomers stopping mid “highway” aisle to chat with people they recognize. But we need a 2nd location badly. Nice to see 100% mask rate in cowtown, albeit due to by-law but felt safer than shopping here despite our low (for now) covid rate.
October 1st.
Let me get my crystal ball for you…
Sorry my bad….OSB. It was $13.95 60 days ago through RONA Cobble Hill and right now it is $32.95.
Not sure about that one but I have a listing with a suite right now at $815k in the core where I need to be present for showings and out of 10 showings it has been 8 young couples (<35 yrs old). One investor, one middle age couple relocating from another part of BC.
Any updated, interesting observations from buyer profiles? Age, occupation, origin, reasons for buying?
What advice would you have for first time home buyers looking to take advantage of the buyers market in high end condos (eg 700k for 2br on 2.19 5-year term rate and a 30 year amortization)? Is now the time to buy if you have the 20% down? Or should we wait for lower prices in early 2021 (even if that comes with a higher interest rate? If we buy now are we gonna be trapped in our condo for 10 years or can we still reasonably expect to sale in 5-7 years?
Offer delay for later today update from listing agent….damn
“ten offers in hand now.”
However, the bigger the yard the less I need a park or playground and with that smaller scale of population and folks with issues, hopefully, the found needle or crack pipe is more of an exception than the standard that we face in Victoria.
Up island too. All the towns no matter how small seem to have an issue with managing homelessness and substance abuse, albeit less visible than downtown Victoria by far. We love it up island but our house was broken into – first time ever in our lives. It is way more affordable for more space and well worth the move for housing as you can get 2500 square feet on a nice 15,000 square foot plus lot in many areas for 600-700,000. You can even still find waterfront for under a million.
We did check out Mill/Cow Bay but since we already have a good network in the Comox Valley, it won out. Having lived there for a few years, the downsides I noticed the most were the dreary winters, lack of job options (if you don’t work from home) and the time to get to YVR or YYJ. In terms of lifestyle though, there is a good community and so much to do outside. Our goal is ultimately to do 8 months there and winter somewhere warmer.
I think Saskatoon, population maybe 275K has two Costco stores.
We are probably looking at our exodus from Victoria for just after January as well. Then I will have a really solid idea of my work requirements for in office time and I can plan the balance between locations. As I discussed previously, the finances and the work-life balance just don’t make Victoria sustainable for us when other housing and investment options available can be more beneficial to us in the long run (financial and lifestyle). Combined with greater employment mobility due to Covid-19 forcing the work from a distance innovation forward, I can take advantage of the other options. As well, there seems to be a discarded crack pipe or needle in any of the parks and playgrounds I bring my children to lately and that’s not just around the core.
It is something.. I was was reading this earlier in the week about how the reported inflation rate may becoming detached from reality.
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/pandemic-widens-gap-between-perceived-measured-inflation-schembri-says
Calgary
1,336,000 people
6 Costcos
222,000 people per Costco
Greater Victoria
402,000 people
1 Costco
402,000 people per Costco
https://www.vicnews.com/local-news/costco-rumours-groundless-says-victoria-airport-authority/
Sideliner: where up island are you looking? Mill Bay? Cow Bay?
Marko: Absolutely agree that there will not be a lot of people moving from condos to SFH,; not that many that can afford the extra million for a SFH. probably just a fluke regarding the folks that I know.
Congrats and good luck. We are hoping to move up island within a year. Lots of things I love about Victoria but the draw of recreational opportunities, closer to family and cheaper housing is pulling us in that direction….
Thanks LF it does feel good. The biggest change was my partner’s eagerness to move up island based on the reality of what’s available down here vs up there and what our lifestyles would look like in either place. Also Covid has also moved her job from 9-5 office downtown to 95% work from home, so that opened up the door. I’d be very interested to see how the relative pricing of property is changing in response to the WFH phenomenon as it seems that the price differential between the major urban centres and what used to be considered ‘rural’ are becoming narrower.
Where are/were you getting plywood at $15/sheet? I don’t think you could even get osb at $15/sheet 3 years ago.
Congrats. It must feel good to have made that decision and charted your new path forward. Sometimes the hardest thing is not knowing what you are going to (or should do) next.
The stock market suggesting that inflation is brewing in the commodity market. Copper is over $3, and lumber price is at a new record high.
We viewed a few houses in the $800k-$1m range this weekend. After weighing up our options, we’ve decided to move up island where we can buy an equivalent house for $600k-$700k. We both work from home and in the $700k range, the return from our investments will almost cover the mortgage meaning my wife won’t have to work if she doesn’t want to. Lifestyle will be different, but we have lots of friends up there and will have a better support network for raising kids.
I personally haven’t come across one scenario where someone is selling a condo to buy a SFH because of covid.
The price of any material has gone through the roof. Like a lot of people I have just hunkered down but neighbours seem to be focused on household improvements. What I find interesting is the number of friends who live in condos who are either looking for or have bought a SFH. Big step, possible over reaction? But maybe a very rational move.
With the cost of building so steeply inflated any whimsical thoughts of building an addition have been put on hold. I waiting for the CoV to start a programme of planting more trees that we can harvest for plywood in order to make housing more affordable.
Noticed yesterday a sheet of plywood has gone from $15 to $35 in the last 60 days….wtf.
Starting a new project in the COV and the three structural engineers I’ve emailed for a quote haven’t replied in over a week.
What a weird time, wouldn’t be surprised if construction costs just continue to balloon.
Have a great holiday and enjoy being away from the city.
Yep