AI guest post: Is there seasonality in house prices?
Hello readers! While the usual author of this blog is off on vacation, sipping a well-deserved beer, I’ve been tasked to fill in. And who am I, you ask? Well, I’m an AI language model developed by OpenAI, programmed to help you navigate the complex world of real estate analytics. So, grab a drink of your own, and let’s dive into today’s topic!
Understanding Seasonality
Seasonality refers to predictable and recurring fluctuations that occur over specific periods—typically a year—in various domains, real estate being no exception. For instance, we might see an uptick in property sales during certain months due to factors like weather, school calendars, or even tax seasons.
Below are the decomposed components of single family sales over time. The first chart represents the observed sales, followed by the trend component, the seasonality component, and the residuals.
The seasonality component clearly shows a repeating pattern within each year, confirming the presence of seasonality in sales. However, while seasonality in sales and listings is widely recognized, the notion of seasonal property price fluctuations is more contentious. It’s an intuitive idea—more buyers might lead to higher prices—but does the data support this? As we turn to our analysis of Victoria historical real estate data, this is the question we’ll keep in mind.
Data Analysis
To investigate potential seasonality in property prices, we’ll use a dataset that captures decades of real estate activity in Victoria, BC. This dataset includes a variety of metrics, such as sales volumes and average prices for different types of properties.
Our approach will involve breaking down the average property prices by month, which will allow us to observe any consistent patterns that emerge throughout the year. Specifically, we’ll look at average prices for Single Family Homes (SFH) and Condos, two common property types.
Findings
Let’s start by examining the average seasonal component in single family and condo prices, as shown in the bar plot below. Note this is for all the time period 1990-2022.
From the plot, we observe that the deviation from the average price doesn’t display a clear, consistent seasonal pattern. Although there’s a mild peak around mid-year in detached prices, the variations across months are relatively minor and in both directions.
Leo’s comment: When I look at that I see a jump from positive deviation in June to negative deviation in July for detached prices. What do you make of that?
That’s a good observation! Indeed, there appears to be a noticeable drop from June to July for Single Family Homes. This could suggest a mid-year shift in prices where, after potentially reaching a peak in June, prices drop in July.
This shift could be attributed to several factors, including:
- End of the School Year: June often marks the end of the school year, which might prompt families to finalize purchases in order to move and settle in before the next school year starts. This increased demand could drive prices up. By July, this demand could decrease, leading to a drop in prices.
- Vacation Period: July and August are popular months for vacations. Potential buyers may be less active in the market during this time, which could lead to decreased demand and lower prices.
- Real Estate Cycle: The real estate market often operates on a cycle with its own seasonal trends, influenced by various socio-economic factors. The drop from June to July might be part of this broader cycle.
This pattern is certainly interesting and could warrant further investigation. While it does suggest some degree of seasonality, it’s important to note that the overall deviation from the average price remains relatively small.
However, understanding such patterns could offer advantages, especially for potential buyers or sellers who are flexible with their timing. For instance, buyers might find better deals in July, while sellers could aim to list their properties in June for potentially higher sale prices.
Leo’s comment: Average prices are pretty volatile month to month, can you give some estimate of how likely these deviations are to be due to random chance?
A common way to assess whether an observed effect is likely due to random chance is by performing a statistical test, such as a t-test. In this case, we could perform independent sample t-tests to compare the average prices in June and July for both Single Family Homes (SFH) and Condos.
The null hypothesis for these tests would be that there’s no difference in the average prices between June and July. If the p-value from the t-test is small (typically less than 0.05), we would reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the observed difference in prices is statistically significant, i.e., it is unlikely to have occurred due to random chance.
The p-values obtained from the t-tests are approximately 0.67 for Single Family Homes and 0.64 for Condos. These values are much greater than the typical threshold of 0.05 used in statistical testing.
This suggests that the observed differences in average prices between June and July for both SFH and Condos are not statistically significant. In other words, the differences could very well be due to random chance rather than a true underlying seasonal effect.
Thus, while the shift from June to July is an interesting observation, it’s crucial to interpret it with caution. Other factors, such as the overall market conditions and individual property characteristics, are likely to have a more significant impact on property prices.
Interpreting the Findings
Upon analyzing the Victoria, BC real estate market data, it appears that the seasonality in property prices is less pronounced than one might expect. Both Single Family Homes and Condos show minimal variation in monthly average prices as a percentage of the overall mean price.
However, a noteworthy observation is the mid-year shift where prices seem to drop from June to July for both property types. This could be linked to various factors, such as the end of the school year, vacation periods, or broader real estate cycles. While it suggests a degree of seasonality, the overall impact on prices appears relatively minor. Below is the seasonal decomposition for single family prices.
The key takeaway here is that while seasonality clearly influences property sales and listings, its effect on property prices is less clear and likely overshadowed by other market dynamics. Factors such as changes in the economy, interest rates, and housing supply and demand might play a more substantial role in shaping property prices.
Implications for Buyers and Sellers
For potential buyers and sellers, these findings offer some insights. If you’re planning to buy or sell a property, the time of year might have less impact on the price than commonly thought. While there might be more properties to choose from during peak listing times, and potentially more buyers, prices do not seem to substantially increase or decrease in any specific season.
That said, the observed mid-year shift suggests that those with flexible timing could potentially benefit. Sellers might aim to list their properties in June when prices appear to peak, while buyers could find better deals in July (Leo’s note: or the late fall).
Final Words
As the AI stand-in for your usual blog author, I hope you’ve found this exploration of seasonality in property prices insightful. While our human counterpart enjoys their vacation, rest assured that we’ll continue to bring you valuable real estate market insights. Until the next post, happy house hunting (or selling)!
Leo’s note: if you’re interested in how I prompted the AI to write this article, the conversation is here.
Also the weekly sales numbers (this part written by myself):
| July 2023 |
July
2022
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 148 | 510 | |||
| New Listings | 283 | 1101 | |||
| Active Listings | 2344 | 2162 | |||
| Sales to New Listings | 52% | 46% | |||
| Sales YoY Change | +12% | -39% | |||
| New Lists YoY Change | -9% | +13% | |||
| Inventory YoY Change | +12% | +70% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 4.2 | ||||
July is starting much the way June ended. We are running slightly ahead of last year’s pace on sales while new listings lag somewhat behind.
The sales to list ratio is a little stronger than it was this time last year but moving more or less in parallel.
As mentioned a couple weeks ago, it’s incredible resilience given the increase in financing costs from then to now. In the last two months we are up nearly a percent in bond yields and by extension 5 year fixed rates. Due to rate holds those take a bit longer to filter down to borrowers but so far we haven’t seen that slowdown on the sales side. 
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise again this week and everyone is wondering whether this is the final straw for an economy that has been a lot more resilient than expected. The latest job growth numbers still surprised to the upside, growing 60k vs 20k expected. However it’s worth noting that with population growth running as high as it is, we really need about 50,000 new jobs a month to break even. Anything less than that and unemployment would be growing. With job vacancy rates declining, that time is likely coming soon if it’s not already here.
Yes prices will decline in the long run as more units are supplied and demand is satiated. In the short term, prices will not decline.
You need to build a lot of homes before prices come down. That might take years.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2023/07/19/unemployment-is-likely-about-to-increase-will-it-drag-on-housing
Leo these might be the good ol days going forward I can see people more at each others throats and zero gets done
4 story rental building, OCP compliant. Rejected unanimously. Apparently View Royal has too many rentals already.
Who knew we would be longing for the good old days of Screech in charge?
Time is money so something that takes longer will cost more. Money (in the form of DCCs and CACs) is money. Additional requirements for energy efficiency, accessibility, soil remediation, tree protection, road dedication, etc are also costs whether you think the requirements are good or not.
Yes. And if more units pencil then there is more supply, and price drops (or increases less).
Depends how the rest of the month goes.
At 276 sales we are at 17.25 sales a day, VS 16.75 sales/day as of July 18th 2022 so 3% more sales.
If you prefer to compare business days it’s 7% more sales.
That would put us 525-545 sales, unless it slows further.
So we could get to 567 (11% increase over last year), but not without the second half of July outperforming the first half.
yes and if the market rate is 300k then you either have to sell at a loss or hold on for better conditions if you can. The fact that people think developers or landlords operate in some type of cost-plus pricing scheme is absurd. Do mortgage-free landlords only charge the cost of property tax, maintenance and insurance?
One where it is profitable to give concessions in exchange for higher density. There is lots to complain about. Density bonusing is probably low on the list.
Lol, yep and that is the thought and action that engineers failure. The assumption that the cost can be absorbed out of the existng developer or investor since there is belief or appearance they have a large margin and they just should do it. In the advent the cost can’t be passed on to the consumer because the price the market will bear has become limited or fixed, the activity just slows or stops. There needs to be a return to investors and developers, by reducing that, investors will find other places to put their money and developers will find other things to do that has a better return for their time and effort. Forcing that type of command economy in building housing just ends in not enough being built or at an appropriate cost… Oh wait…. What situation are we in?
That too seems like an assumption. If I can sell a unit at $500,000, I’m selling it at $500,000 regardless of whether my costs are $350,000 or $380,000.
It’s not an assumption, all costs are carried by the end point consumer. Whether it be the affordable units, public art, libraries , community space, playgrounds, step code, hand deconstruction, mandatory vehicle chargers, or Leo’s favorite (parking); these cost are just carried through the chain to the end cost of housing on the consumer. It’s easy to say these costs are just hitting rich developers, however, it’s a part of the never ending cost spiral. A person really can’t be in favour of making housing more affordable if they believe in leveraging building homes to meet other political or social goals by downloading other costs on to it.
I think you’re just making assumptions here. The units are often below market/RGI rentals. Impact might be small, but it’s new affordable housing nonetheless.
Except that it erodes and hampers overall affordability on the new construction for a symbolic gesture of some affordable units that have no real market impact and like most symbolism it’s meaningless and for the consumption of suckers, hence, the politicians claiming it as a victory adding affordable stock, but not actually addressing the greater affordability problem.
And what is stopping a normal developer from doing that? Tons of “for profit” developments also experience issues. The fact that Frank thinks somehow low income housing is less structurally sound is ridiculous.
Code has little to do with it IMHO. Been through some tract housing in Langford that is experiencing issues at less than 10 years old.
It’s usually a quid pro quo. The developer may get additional density in exchange for providing X number of affordable units. Seems like a fair trade.
You again have zero idea what you are talking about, have you ever heard of the term building code? Give it a rest and stop spewing non-sense.
Yep, if governments want to build social housing, then build new social housing. Just don’t impose it as a part approving developments and saddling the cost across the remaining stock as a so called way of adding affordable housing stock. There is a difference between housing affordability and providing social housing.
“Low Income” / social housing I’ve read about in Europe is high quality and expensive to build – but fully government-funded. I don’t think builders have any magic wand to make cheap structures without cutting corners.
Affordable or low cost new isn’t a thing nor should it be. It’s a politicians scam to force builders to offer affordable that just drives up building costs. The units offer at affordable or lower cost just escalates the overall cost of the remainder of the stock being built or offered and contributes to the affordability issue. Scale is the issue to addressed and cost and affordability sorts itself out. The idea is that new stock should be preferred in the market and thefore bringing down the demand on older or less desirable stock. Still, you don’t prevent people who think they can build and sell new at a lower price point, just don’t buy yourself if it’s not for you.
Fool around with snakes and you might get bitten.
Low cost housing means low quality with houses slapped together as cheaply as possible. They probably have a life expectancy of less than 50 years, especially considering the amount of neglect and abuse low cost housing is exposed to. Stop banging your heads against a brick wall (if you can find one).
That is true, the price will always be what the market will bear. However, removing restrictions and even allowing over building can impact scale. Developers will chase that price, just allow them to assume the risk and they will likely over build and the scale may bring down prices. Limiting scale through cumbersome regulations that delay and increase time to build and thus the overall pricing limiting the buyer cohort that can bear the price. The market is a wide spectrum and there is profit to be made across many income cohorts that bear a market price at different levels. The problem with over regulation, it contributes limiting the inventory and pushing higher income cohorts into lower markets and eliminating the servicing of the price the market will bear at lower income cohorts. Limiting the availability of stock distorts what the market will bear at the lower segments. The opportunity to compete at other price points for profits is lost due to lack of options. Say you can afford a $80k Tesla and that is what you want to buy, however, the stock is limited and you have been out bid on it. But it turns out there is an overall shortage of cars, and Hyundai is selling $25k cars at a profit serving what the market will bear for that product. Would be Tesla buyers start competing on buying the Hyundai at $50k leaving the lower price cohort unserviced. The would be Tesla driver is probably unsatisfied, but they got what they could get because of limited options. Take that over housing, governments are limiting the ability to compete in the multiple cohorts and escalating costs and eliminating the ability to make profit in the differing segments of what the market will bear. Pushing people from higher income segments into competing in the market segments traditionally where lower incomes made their way. There are markets in need of competition, but governments are impeding it from happening in housing through it’s interference.
The market decides what houses sell for. I agree builder costs will tend to be sticky, but if house prices go soft, lot values will fall.
Fact not theory. Happened in West Side Van and North shore a few years back. Lot values down over 20%.
No, inventory was more than double back then. For example, July 2012 was 523 sales on 5,178 active listings. We will end July 2023 well above 523 on 2,300-2,400 listing. It isn’t the worst imo….1/3 of my career was worse metrics.
I just don’t agree with the premise that making a house less harder to build is going to make it less expensive to build.
Builder’s charge on what the market will bear, not on what it costs them to build. If they have lower costs then they will make a bigger profit.
The only time that they will begin to lower their price is when they are short on work.
Leo indicated last year was 20 year low and this year earlier on in this thread and we are currently 3% up, hence my comment. Inventory right now more than double your first 4 Julys in RE?
LOL that would require common sense. Let’s get real Leo.
Btw, have you been watching some of the View Royal council meetings lately? Just insane how doomed we are on housing long term.
We are on pace for more sales than I saw in any July in my first four years of real estate, (on more than double the inventory back then).
We are on pace for 5th or 6th lowest sales in last 20 yrs. Not sure I would call that revisiting 20 yr low sales.
Let’s start by removing all the nonsense restrictions that make them a lot harder to build than single family homes and then re-evaluate whether they will be built. I’ll hazard a guess that you’ll start seeing them appear.
The risk of LOC’s. Bank can adjust rate or call them any time.
So we are likely on pace revisiting a 20 year low in sales, I suppose given the rates we should be at <400 for sales for July?
Whatever u nailed it new will not be affordable for most people
It seems that the general consensus on this blog is to upzone single family homes and reduce restrictions on building and builders will flock to the city and build, build, build.
The harsh reality of economics puts this consensus into the area of fantasy. To build these house plexes is expensive and they will only have a market value upon completion relative to the income that they can generate. Put restrictions on how much they may fetch in rent and they won’t make economic sense to build.
Hence zero applications have been made.
They lost the last election, losing doesn’t really matter in our system if you have the votes in the right place.
No disagreement there. I think it’s a solid bet that most if not all of the various government housing initiatives won’t get implemented. Especially the ones where one level of government expects to push around another level of government – good luck with that!
Did the developers push for MMHI? Can’t say I saw a lot of it. Some smaller ones did, but I didn’t see anyone from say Abstract speaking in support but I may have missed it.
When the new council came in some wanted to make changes to MMHI. I pushed back on that as much as possible because you can’t design a perfect policy on paper and they were handed a golden opportunity by Helps to just pass the current version in an hour instead of opening up a months-long process again. Re-opening the debate and public hearings would be agonizing after the fight last summer for no clear advantage. Better to pass something that we know is flawed, and end single family zoning for good, then revise later. Tweaks to make it actually work can be done later based on actual data and will be much less controversial than the original passing of the bylaw. For example there is a mandatory 6m setback from any bedroom window for missing middle housing types, whereas the same setback for single family is 1.5m. Total nonsense but killer restriction but is such an esoteric detail that it’s unlikely to be controversial when it’s dropped.
Hi Leo. Welcome back. I see you’re posting this morning. Can you please tell me why developers pushed for the MMHI despite the policy being so riddled with problems?
You don’t understand AI at all. It has lots of biases baked in, by the humans who designed it.
‘One size fits all’ approach doesn’t work for housing, say rural municipalities
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/one-size-fits-all-approach-doesnt-work-for-housing-say-rural-municipalities-7296057
Yes, but those sticks are going to be dramatically unpopular. I bet they will never be implemented.
“Require unaffordable big cities like Vancouver to increase homebuilding by 15% annually or face big financial penalties and have portions of their federal funding withheld.
Impose a NIMBY penalty on big city gatekeepers for egregious cases of NIMBYism. We will empower residents to file complaints about NIMBYism with the federal infrastructure department. When complaints are well-founded, we will withhold infrastructure dollars until municipalities remove the blockage and allow homebuilding to take place. ”
Think about this in reality. Comfortably housed big city resident sees the news that the conservatives are cutting their city’s funding for that new water treatment plant or that interchange because the city didn’t allow enough housing to be built and so they either go without or face a big property tax hike. At best they get no direct advantage and minor indirect advantage from that new housing and quite likely they are opposed to it to start with.
Good way to destroy your voting base in those cities. Not just a liberal city issue either, Calgary just voted down an infill housing policy. Is Pierre going to cut their funding?
The advantage that the CPC has is they’ve identified a key problem and are talking about it loudly, but honestly outside of housing advocacy circles I’m not convinced it resonates that well. If you look at Twitter responses to Scott’s or Pierre’s messaging on punishing gatekeepers it is not necessarily broadly positive from people that seem to be otherwise conservative.
Don’t get me wrong the Liberals will very likely lose the next election because of the housing situation, but elections are based on vibes, not policy. No plan will overcome the fact that the situation has deteriorated rapidly in the last 8 years and the Liberals will likely eat that.
The difference (Conservatives vs fed. Liberals) for housing plans is a carrot vs stick approach. That is evident from the titles of their plans, and confirmed in the details.
Libs policy “A Home for Everyone” … is “all carrot, no stick”, https://liberal.ca/housing/
… while CPC (Poilievre) policy “Fire Gatekeepers. Build Homes Fast” is “half carrot, half stick”
3/6 CPC ideas are “stick” https://www.conservative.ca/fire-gatekeepers-build-homes-fast/
Only 1/6 of Poilievre ideas (use fed buildings) are mentioned on the liberals housing plan.
Poilievre plan …
—— [stick!] Require unaffordable big cities like Vancouver to increase homebuilding by 15% annually or face big financial penalties and have portions of their federal funding withheld.
——[stick!] Impose a NIMBY penalty on big city gatekeepers for egregious cases of NIMBYism. We will empower residents to file complaints about NIMBYism with the federal infrastructure department. When complaints are well-founded, we will withhold infrastructure dollars until municipalities remove the blockage and allow homebuilding to take place.
——[carrot] Reward cities who are removing gatekeepers and getting homes built by providing a building bonus for municipalities who boost homebuilding.
——[stick!] Require cities seeking federal funds pre-approve building permits for high-density housing and employment on all available land surrounding transit stations.
——[Libs promise this too] Sell off 15 percent of the federal government’s 37,000 buildings. We will require these buildings to be turned into affordable housing.
—— Stop printing money. We will require every dollar of new spending to be matched by a dollar of savings. This will end the inflationary bubbles the Bank of Canada created, fueling a crisis in the housing market.
How many new immigrants are even able to vote? Fewer and fewer are electing to become Canadian citizens, and cannot vote. Do new immigrants want more immigration or do they just want to bring their family members to Canada?
Leo- Just a thought. Why not ask AI: What are the main causes of the housing crisis in Canada. Supposedly it would be free of any personal bias, and could provide factors humans may not have considered. Give it a whirl, I’m not interested in using AI.
The Liberals give us a target number for immigration. The PPC gives us a target number too – lower. So why won’t the Conservatives give us a number?
Because they are trying to appeal to different groups of voters with opposite views. The CPC core supporters generally want less immigration. On the other hand, the CPC is trying to win over immigrant groups in greater Toronto and Vancouver who want more immigration. And of course business wants more immigration to relieve pressure on wages and expand consumers. So they give different messages to different audiences, but won’t commit to a number. For example:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-immigration-outreach-efforts-1.6690244
Leo: To be fair, the conservative party under Harper was the government that started the ramp up in immigration. The liberals continued and increased it further. I think it’s one of those things both parties already agreed upon and have for a while. Without immigrants, the tax base is too small, and social programs fall apart. In additional you have a massive labour shortage. Not sure if that’s better/worse then the current housing problem. The immigration ramp up has been going on a while, but it doesn’t seem like either government had plan to scale up infrastructure to deal with. We’ll ramp it up to solve the problem, but leave it up to other governments to tackle the problems it creates 🙁
Ukeedude I presume you’ve looked on the one UVic housing page links to, I think it’s places4students.com. Try searching furnished rental on usedvic and Craigslist, Facebook marketplace etc. saw one just the other day $1,375? Don’t know if that’s within budget. Search homestay and student. There’s one on usedVic right now in family home with all meals $1,500. Looking for UVic or Camosun student. Can search shared accommodation also if they’re open to a roommate situation. My great nephew couldn’t get a dorm four years ago and rented a house with lots of bedrooms and just rented them out to other desperate students. Worked great for his four year degree. He was an athlete and rented to other athletes who were in general hard working either studying, practicing or playing sports. Arranging and enforcing the cleaning rotation was the biggest stress.
Pierre Polievre on balancing immigration and housing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv0HC5rFvDs
Not sure if the policy of our two federal parties are really distinguishable
I am surprised that more condo investors have not listed their properties. No one keeps data of this kind, so it is just a shot in the dark of how many investment condos are for sale in Victoria. I suspect it’s between 20% to 50%
If we are similar to Vancouver, CMHC estimates that 40 percent of all condominiums in Vancouver are owned by investors. Tens of thousands of investment condos in Vancouver. Victoria being much smaller would only be thousands of investment condos. With only about 300 pre-owned condos listed for sale in Victoria it doesn’t seem that there is panic among condo investors to sell. That might only be 60 to 150 pre-owned condos that are investments that are listed.
Yet investor’s sentiment can change rapidly as it did in the US during the credit crunch. The market for condos in the USA went from a shortage to a glut at that time.
That’s why I am paying more attention to the condo market than houses. As it has the ability to bring a lot of units onto the market. It comprises a lot of renters in the 20 to 40 age group. And it employs a lot of people in new construction.
Yikes. The trustee is sure to wrap this one up quickly.
they guarantee residence to first year students but cut-off to register was May 1 and the housing my little Einstein had lined up just fell through 2 weeks ago. I agree with comments regarding residence being the best way to experience University and make lifelong friends but it just wasn’t what my kid wanted. Now we are scrambling.
When hundreds of thousands of mortgages with amortizations pushed out between 40 to 70 years have to come back into compliance on renewal during that time frame?
Yes, they were down but now is coming back with a vengeance, because profit is way up.
The U.S. banks are down, huge commercial real estate risk
Not the entire stock market. The large tech stocks are flying high making it look like the market is up. For example, Microsoft was up as much as $20 today but settled down for a $13 gain. I paid $28 for it 20 years ago, now it’s $360. Should have bought more.
Are you not able to comprehend Leo’s charts?
You are absolutely correct in a normal year, but this year the stock market is on fire.
It could be an indication that the housing market will be back on track next spring, and perhaps will be firing on all cylinders within 12-18 months.
It’s the middle of the summer, the market is always slower. This is not the time of year one would choose to sell into. New construction comes on the market when the project begins (after finally getting approved) and as units are completed. I wouldn’t read too much into mid summer market activity.
0%
If you had to find something that is good news for prospective purchasers, it would be that despite the pressure for home prices to increase, prices have remained unchanged for the past six months.
And rents despite their low vacancy rate seem to have plateaued as well.
Multi-family four plex residential conversions were trading at about 20 times gross income a year ago and today that multiplier has weakened to about 17 or 18. I suppose the rent controls are taking a lot of the fun out of buying these rental house conversions.
Then there are new condos. It seems that a lot more of them are listed on the real estate board these days. It could be that developers are finding that using the MLS is needed more today rather that relying on their on site sales office.
Still seem to be getting more price decreases these days. So perhaps sellers are becoming more aware when it comes to over pricing their properties.
That market peaked in September 2022.
How many condos don’t allow any rentals? A percentage.
Very small % of buildings are AirBnb zoned so no, vast majority are long term rentals.
Relating to SaanichAdam, in the strata minutes of a downtown building I saw a condo in that building is undergoing foreclosure.
Marko- Are the condo investors going to Airbnb the units?
Given the economic indicators of bankruptcies, unemployment, the used car market (anecdotally, but it’s an industry I’m close to) and now inflation, methinks that the BOC was a bit aggressive with their last two rate hikes. Once these two hikes circulate in 6-8months it’s going to be a recession, though how hard and how long who knows.
Perhaps BOC will start cutting rates sooner rather than later, though I think they need to hold for some time to get the point across.
Canada’s inflation rate falls to 2.8%
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-inflation-june-1.6909635
They have that in Kansas too. It’s just ink.
Sure looks like the final amount recovered will be only $292K of $226M. As a percentage recovered, this is far lower than what they got back from Bernie Madoff, for example.
I wonder what Martel did with the money.
Martel creditors await first meeting in bankruptcy proceeding
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/martel-creditors-await-first-meeting-in-bankruptcy-proceeding-7289944
Not really seeing it. Two months ago I thought the downtown condo market was looking very anemic and then four investor type units I had listed at 834, 989, Ironworks, Vivid, all sold, to investors.
Obviously there will be more rental properties coming to market but I am not seeing it in such great numbers that it is impacting inventory to a great extent , and shockingly there are investors purchasing. Not sure if people have cash sitting on the sidelines or what the deal is but I thought there would be zero replacement investors at these interest rates.
My prediction is could be a lot more flat (in terms of prices) and boring coming up. Slow sales, low inventory, etc.
You talking Toronto or Victoria because Victoria
276 sales
plus 128 + 128 + 30 last Monday = 567. That is not too bad especially given the interest rates.
as shown on your chart (and statCan release) …
——There’s been a spike in BC unemployment from 5.0 to 5.6 in one month (and 4.1 to 5.6 in about 8 months).
—— From your posted chart, outside of Covid period (2020-21), the last time BC has seen unemployment at/above 5.6 % was 2016 when BC Libs were in power.
—— BC’s rate (5.6%) is worse than Canada overall (5.4%). Haven’t seen that happen in awhile.
—— since this spike hasn’t happened for Canada unemployment overall, let’s hope it’s just noise in the BC data. (The Labour force data points to the main reason for the unemployment spike being increase population of BC Labour force, as more working age people are moving here than new jobs are created.)
The last person I would listen to anything on is Adam Stirling
That’s my bet for how it will unwind.
I dropped in at my local grocery store today, very big chain, I won’t mention names. I went to the customer service desk to purchase a lottery ticket. This is the customer service desk which in my opinion represents the entire store, its chain, and its reputation as a whole. The individual that served me had full facial, hand, and arm tattoo’s that were down right scary and a host of other features that I don’t even want to talk about .
We are not in Kansas anymore…This is not Victoria.
This whole thing is a house of cards.
This has always been the academic conclusion, but it seems like now there is anecdotal evidence supporting it. Most of the perspective sellers seems to have bought in the 2nd half of 2021 with current negative cashflow approaching or exceeding $1K /month in some cases.
This market feeling more like the boring 90s than the 80s
The noon hour show on CFAX hit City of Victoria’s missing middle policy pretty hard today.
https://www.iheartradio.ca/cfax-1070/podcasts/adam-stirling-hour-3-july-17-2023-1.19983921?mode=Article
That, and math was eventually going to catch up with them.
Insider Contacts said they are seeing increasing number of investors wanting to unload due cashflow issues caused by both mortgage and heloc rates. Be interesting to see if more rental properties come to market shortly.
Introvert-You gotta love those Norwegians. They sold so much oil to the world that the government can easily give every man woman and child an EV for free. Their sovereign wealth fund amounts to $200,000 per person, heck they could even throw in a small condo.
Next post, unemployment
Haven’t posted these charts in a long time but..
That postcard
Last July was nothing to write home about. Unless you were writing about a 20 year low in sales
Sales and new lists
Over asks still pretty steady though
Still out of the country with limited computer access. New post either tomorrow or the next day when I’m back.
Meanwhile the month to date numbers:
Sales: 276 (up 3% over this time last year)
New listings: 557 (down 6%)
Inventory: 2385 (up 11%)
Market seems to be weakening again. Same reports out of Toronto where it seems to have turned a corner. Still very low inventory but maybe we’ll end up at similar sales rate to last July which was very slow.
I didn’t realize until today after reviewing my house insurance before making payment that kitchen/bath cabinets, flooring or basically everything within the walls are covered under the Personal Property amount. I knew appliances, window coverings, lights fixtures etc were but wasn’t thinking cabinets. I have never made a claim in my life, just kept paying the premiums.
Yes, if on-campus is an option, I would choose that for first year too. Definitely an advantage for connecting with other students. You also get meals and cleaning of the common spaces (so everything but your room), which is helpful and a nice transition for first moving out. And it saves the commute to campus. And with off-campus housing (and any rental situation), you never know what kind of living situation and landlord you will end up with.
Re: renting to a group of students.
“The neighbours like them”
Are you sure? Or are the neighbours also absentee owners of rooming houses?
I thought UVic supplies residence for all 1st year students? IMHO, the dorm is actually the best place for them to establish friendships that could last a lifetime.
Paging Frank…
It is quite hard to find close reasonable housing off campus. Easiest type to find is a room in a shared apartment/house. Most people advertise on FB marketplace these days but there is an off-campus housing registry for UVic a FB roommate/cohousing page, and FB student housing page. Best to start looking early.
I would never rent my property to a group of students. Unless you like having problems. Who pays the enormous water bills?
They do.. I only rent to students. Eighteen years of it now. Never had major problems, only 2 minor ones, they leave approx every 3 years so I can clean, paint, repair/upgrade, and adjust the rent. The neighbours like them. It’s all about choosing the group well, our technique/criteria of which we’ve really improved upon in the 18 years.
I would never rent my property to a group of students. Unless you like having problems. Who pays the enormous water bills?
Curious how hard is it to find student housing in Victoria. My kid was accepted and now has had housing fall through. Is there a resource anyone can point me to for finding student apartments?
Facebook has a group called Uvic off campus housing which is good.
Rent in May when the previous year’s students depart and hold the place through summer until classes start or have some friends that can make some space is usually the best approach, but aren’t options now. It’s tough, off-campus housing lists through schools here hasn’t been useful for a decade or more. If possible, if they can be a priority for on-campus housing might be a way. I know of some that found some luck posting on housing forums and teamed up with 4 or 5 other students and rented entire houses when they couldn’t find other accomodations (might be the best option).
Curious how hard is it to find student housing in Victoria. My kid was accepted and now has had housing fall through. Is there a resource anyone can point me to for finding student apartments?
Two major real estate investment trusts (REITs) have recently announced distribution cuts in just the last few weeks, making a case for the struggles faced by the real estate industry amid rising interest rates.
The recent onslaught of rising interest rates have hurt most real estate investment trusts, which have mortgages that are often equal to 50% to 60% of their property prices.
Rising interest rates also have an impact on REIT unitholders, many of whom are retail investors. When interest rates were extremely low, a REIT distribution yield of roughly 5% appeared fairly appealing. Nevertheless, now that the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate has been hiked to 4.5%, ultrasafe guaranteed investment certificates pay nearly the same.
From: https://globalnews.ca/news/9835526/new-zealand-tourist-healing-vancouver-stabbing/#:~:text=In%20a%20July%2013%20press,and%20a%20blue%20baseball%20cap.
Coming to neighbourhood near you, brought to you by a so called stigmatized vulnerable person.
This scenario only applies to people straight from undergrad programs and not working. Yes, there are few of them, but majority grad students are either working full time or got funding through various programs.
Tuition is not “nothing” after tax credits. UVic says $2,135 per semester, plus this does not include the extra fees which are ineligible for credits. Not a lot if you’re working, but you are not going to get assistance as a part-time student with a full time job.
Tuition for most master degrees are cheap, maybe except MBA. It’s nothing after tax credits return. And most research masters tuitions covered by profs or findings from universities.
The info in my post is 100% correct, current and not based on the G&M article.
The teacher’s higher academic qualifications (e.g. masters vs bachelor degree) put them in a higher “category”. The category number corresponds to years of training. So a “cat 5” has 5 years university vs 4 years for a cat 4. But as you can see from Saanich teacher salary grids, this only varies the salary by about $15k and that’s from lowest (bachelor’s) to highest (e.g. masters) academic qualifications.
The “steps” are years of experience working as a teacher, unrelated to academic qualifications:
As you can see from the chart, if Saanich was hiring a teacher with 4 years training (bachelor degree, cat 4) they’d pay $54,906. If they hire a teacher with a master’s degree (likely 6+ years training, they’d pay $65,641 as a Cat 6 teacher. So that’s $10,700 differential. The differential varies with experience, but averages the $15,000 differential which is what I said.
https://www.tqs.bc.ca/categories/
https://www.bctf.ca/docs/default-source/services-guidance/salary-grids/SD63-Salary-Grid.pdf
See next msg
You do realize that there a various private primary schools in town. None of them do this because people pay for good teachers.
Jesus another b.s. link posted, the date on that link is 2014…..
Giving a person more money just because they have a master’s degree (or any other degree) is really a waste. You pay people for the job they do and how well they do it. If the job requires a degree, then great, but you’re still just paying them for that job. How does the teacher’s job change when they have a master’s degree? If they take on more responsibility or more hours, etc., then fair enough they deserve more money. If not, then no more money.
How much does it cost?
You don’t go for a masters when you’re a student, you go evenings when you’re established, cost is meaningless considering future compensation. Some teachers are retired longer than their working career.
How much is a masters as far as student loans?
I had a friend who was a gym teacher. He went for his masters to boost his salary, but primarily to boost his pension. I don’t think Vince Lombardi had a masters degree, he did have 3 Super Bowl rings.
Any good Mother can teach primary school and would be happy with 50k.
I think a master’s degree adds about $15k/year to a teacher’s salary. So your idea that it doubles a teacher’s salary is way off. And it seems perfectly reasonable to me to pay a teacher more if they have more training. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/battle-of-numbers-how-much-does-an-average-teacher-make/article17309702/#:~:text=The%20government%2C%20for%20instance%2C%20pegs,to%20the%20Ministry%20of%20Education.
I agree Barrister. If it were private enterprise then you would fire the person with the masters and hire two competent primary school teachers at $50,000 a year each.
Why do you need a masters to teach primary school and why pay anymore because someone has a Masters?
Many separated couples choose to continue living in the same house while ending their marriage. Some couples decide to share a roof for financial reasons, while others feel the transition will be easier on the family if they cohabitate until the divorce process is over.
Exactly Patriotz. The Quebec stats are stunning. Percentage of common law unions in 1981: 8.2% and in 2016: 39.9%.
Proportion of couples living together in 2021 Canada: 23% and in Quebec: 43%.
Primary teachers are paid the same as secondary teachers. Here’s the salary grid for SD61:
https://www.bctf.ca/docs/default-source/services-guidance/salary-grids/2023/61-Salary-Grid-2023.pdf
Yes, Cat 6 = master’s degree. Here’s what the categories mean:
https://www.tqs.bc.ca/upgrade/requirements.pl
I’ve read that research in the US shows that the divorce rate is down mainly because the marriage rate is down. Those who do get legally married are more likely to belong to social cohorts who are more likely to stay together. Conversely those who just live together are more likely to break up, but they don’t get included in the divorce statistics.
The new GP pay model ($385k) is more than double your $185k, though they have about $85k expenses which would bring that down to $300k
https://amp.kelownanow.com/watercooler/news/news/Provincial/Huge_raise_for_BC_family_doctors_as_new_pay_model_bumps_salary_to_385K_a_year/
James they are not wasting their life becoming a doctor in Canada. They simply move to California or North Carolina.
Top level primary teachers are not at 100K yet (but getting close). That’s with a masters and 10+ years in the system.
From: https://financialpost.com/real-estate/housing-market-forecast-slashed-interest-rate-hikes
Divorces are likely down because it is too expensive to separate. Divide the family assets and you have nothing acceptable to buy to raise kids in. You’re stuck in a house with an ex partner that will mentally abuse you.
https://youtu.be/fCuS78YHrOY
Speaking of salaries I still can’t believe how little a GP makes in BC even with the new structure. I have a 2 year diploma from Camosun and now make 185. Why would anyone waste their life becoming a doctor in Canada?
I agree with the one hour of time thing, whatever is selling is obviously going to be worth more. The single Mother with two kids thing, you would be better off just kicking the husband down stairs and making it strictly business. Dual income for the household remains, The kids still have their rooms, the bills get paid, when you renew the mortgage everything looks as it has always been, and no lawyers.
atleast this thing is now completely debunked. Please think twice before posting random crap just to get a reaction
For Warren and the folks who upvoted them: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220309/g-a001-eng.htm
Try not to let your personal bias project too too much onto things.
Of course to your kids everything.
I too worship the ground my father walks on.
-waterfront property in Ocean Beach.
….to her kids, everything.
As dear Patrick would say, “Thanks for the discussion”.
If you had been in the desert for three days and dying of thirst, then one glass of water would be worth everything that you owned. the second glass no so much. By your fifth glass then the water would have little to no value to you at all.
What something is worth has only value to those that have a want or need for it. So how much value is a single mom with kids worth to someone else?
I now realize that when I was working in one of my “fill in jobs” as a hostess in the Bengal Room at the Empress Hotel years ago, that I should have been earning a physician’s salary, because the man I just seated desperately needed a gin and tonic like right now but did not need heart surgery at the same moment.
That’s exactly what I am saying to you Alexandracdn. I don’t care how many jobs or kids you have. An hour of your life has the same worth as anyone else’s hour of life. Now if you can paint my house then you have some additional value to me. But a single mom working two or three jobs – don’t care. That 60 minutes of your life span that is gone is exactly the same 60 minutes as any other person.
I read an essay a long time back called “Money is Time” Instead of being paid a wage we were paid in time. Someone would have to give up a minute of their life to pay you an extra minute to live. If your kids wanted you to live longer then they would have to give up part of their life time. How much of their lives are worth one minute of your own?
Oh come on, at least use another scenario. “One hour of someone’s life is the same as one hour of another person’s life” I wish all those men out there thought that of me (and most women) when I was a young single mother working two and three jobs to get ahead.
Comparing what a painter earns and what a teacher earns is irrelevant. Just as you can’t compare hockey players to doctors.
You assume that a teacher has a higher value as a profession and should be paid more than a painter. But if you need your house painted then what a teacher earns has little value to you. You need a painter not a teacher. If you need a doctor then they are worth more. If you don’t need a doctor then a hockey player has more worth.
In the end what you are paying for is someone else’s time. One hour of someone’s life is the same as one hour of another person’s life. Teacher or painter it’s the same hour of life.
Following up on Totoro’s question from yesterday, uninsured mortgages can indeed have 30 year amort at a slightly higher interest rate as claimed.
Out of curiosity, where does affordability sit right now given the run up in prices and interest rates this year?
Obviously, most households in Victoria or anywhere in Canada aren’t making $200K plus per year.
But what was once thought as the middle class is getting weaker and weaker every year. We are becoming a have and have not society.
There seems to be many secondary school teachers making over $100K in Vancouver School District &
elementary school teachers making between $75K and $95K.
Heaven knows they must deserve it when you consider what a painter makes working for BC ferries.
The provincial government also have none union jobs like: over 70 Assistant Deputy Warden, over 160 engineers, and over 800 lawyers. It looks like their salary range is well above $100k. Didn’t realized that the government need that many lawyers.
https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/consolidated-revenue-fund-schedules-of-payments-employees-with-a-gross-salary-of-75-000-or-more/resource/fa16f216-726b-44ce-8793-1bee75e52b45
According to government website there is: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/careers-myhr/all-employees/pay-benefits/salaries/salarylookuptool/tma/economist.
It all depends on years of experience. Definitely a lot of teachers in BC getting over 90k though.
All that takes is 5 years in the job (or less if you’ve come from a different position). All of the 27s I know get paid over $100k now because there’s a 9.9% “temporary” market adjustment since they couldn’t actually fill IT positions with what they actually pay people.
Is that an exception or the rule?
Within Level 30 of BC Government, there are 5 levels. One would have to be at Level 5 of Administrative Officer Level 30 to receive $100,000.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/careers-myhr/all-employees/pay-benefits/salaries/salarylookuptool
As for the 125,000 public sector employees making more than $75K, this represents 5% of BC’s labor force – BC has ~ 5 million population and assuming ~2.5 million in labor force. The % making > $100K would be even less.
It’s a silly argument we are having here but the point is households making over $200K is very small, maybe 5-10% of the population at best. I am sure someone will respond with his maid making $50 K each working in two houses and driving Uber for 40 hours a week and sleeping only 2 hours a night and this is what needed to succeed in Canada.
They’ve got an agreement with Saudi to cut 1 million barrels a day. They need the price to be higher clearly.
I’d be surprised that the 33s don’t offer an extra 9.9%, that being said, you don’t really have a clue. There’s no one in public service who’s got a position as a 33. All the level 30s are managers that are still unionized, like team leads.
sorry if this was already explained somewhere below, but can you tell us more about this?
LMAO, the immigration expert turned into geopolitical expert now? Give it a rest
What Putin says and what he does are two totally different things. He’s pumping oil like mad, China and India buy all they can get.
Wrong again, looks like there are lvl 33s. Some even offer another 6.6% extra.
There’s actually up to level 33, the only place I’ve ever seen a job above a 30 though is working for HP advanced services (Now called DXC technologies).
Canadian Dollar is up a cent. Oil is at $76, which is up, and Russia is actually cutting production.
It would good for a lot of people if you were right.
I’m guessing the opposite. Canadian dollar is up, gas and oil prices are down (Putin is pumping out oil like mad to fund his war), U.S. election in 16 months.
I am guessing two more quarter point hikes by the end of the year. But I am just guessing .
Just got a notice from BMO offering 4.75% on an 18 month GIC.
From: https://financialpost.com/news/economy/more-bank-of-canada-rate-hikes-possible-economists
BOHICA – 06 September 2023.
@VicReanalyst, Level 30 is the highest pay grade before management and those positions are rarer than all the below levels and are often supervisory.
Since November, before I bought a home in Victoria, I’ve had fun (and learned a lot) with this esoteric RE forum full of ideas & data. However, it does nothing towards actually producing more livable spaces.
Now I’ve got a brand new “hobby” and will instead spend my time actually doing something to help create more housing: With dirty hands I am now spending my time helping build a 16 story residential complex, a below market-rent type of development.
I spend all day right beside the encampment on Pandora (an ironic name for this street considering the myth where Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world), and hope that our society can find a way to adapt to the modern world and its associated problems of despair and income disparity.
To that end, I encourage all to read any works by Dr. Gabor Maté, whether it be on parenting (Hold on to your kids), on trauma & addictions (In The Realm of Hungry Ghosts), on stress (When the body says no), or his most recent, The Myth of Normal.
https://drgabormate.com/book/
https://drgabormate.com/book/the-myth-of-normal/
Best wishes to the best minds here,
–Arrow.
I do regret broaching this subject and triggering one dogged individual who uses a broad selection of logical fallacies to prove themself right.
If you are curious: BC Public Sector Salaries Data Base: See how much public servants make.
Dec 2022 Nearly 125,000 Public Servants earning more than $75,000 per year. All the names are there.
For instance you can “click on” Camosun College.
Or if you want, as Marko has said many times, you can look under Vancouver Island Health Authority Schedule of Remuneration for those employees earning more than $75K per year.
My house painter is charging 60 an hour (usually cash) and I think he is giving me a break as a long term client. assuming 40 hours a week at 50 weeks, thats over 100k.
Definitely not true. My kid’s elementary teacher made 100k this year.
The probability of couple making the same wage in the US is 29% and in this case the median salary of each is 60k. Men that are the primary or sole breadwinner earn the highest median salaries. If it is the same here the probability of both spouses earning over 100k is much lower than 50%.
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/04/13/in-a-growing-share-of-u-s-marriages-husbands-and-wives-earn-about-the-same/
Not anymore, looks like anything lvl 30 or above whatever that means is over 100k.
There has been some guesswork in estimating household income (2 income). I couldn’t find any data on “before-tax” household income.
Many have claimed that two government employees or VIHA employees in the same household would cross $200K. My estimate of such households is below:
The number of government employees in Victoria is 10%. To make > $100 K, they would have to be a manager or above. This fraction would be 10% of all government employees. Overall, government employees making > $100 K would be 1% of the population.
Similarly, VIHA represents 10% and 10% are high income.
In the entire Victoria economy, there may be 10-20% of the population making > $100K.
Assuming there is a 50% probability of both partners in the same household making > $100K, there are only 5-10% households that have an income of > $200K.
So much for that “tsunami of redevelopment” that every NIMBY proclaimed would be just around the corner. It’s pretty much as Leo said it would be, taking a long time even with the legislation.
Developers were very enthusiastic about and pushed hard for the MMHI. So why did they support a policy that doesn’t work?
I love how a huge segment of society (and every overeager urban planner) demanded that Victoria council pass sweeping missing middle upzoning changes, yet “the city of Victoria has not had a single application to build anything under the bylaws since they came into effect in March.”
https://thewalrus.ca/missing-middle-housing-crisis/
Like they already do… without the clarity of a co-ownership agreement?
“The divorce/separation rate is 40%”
Which is as good an indicator of modern notions of commitment as you will find, yet you propose that members of this same feckless rabble should club together and buy a house?
There also wasn’t much tightening that happened during the subsequent inflationary spike coinciding with the Korean war. Both episodes just sort of went away on their own.
There was no premature easing in the late 1940s because there was no tightening in response to the post-WWII inflationary episode, which was largely transitory, driven by pent up demand and the removal of price controls after the end of the war. The fed held rates low into the 1950s.
That would be a small number of households. There were still 16,320 census family households earning over $200,000 in 2020.
Is the point of this to filter out households with income from adult children living at home? If so, you would also want to include the 1,730 1 earner census family households with the 7,470 two earner households.
Agreed.
The phrase “correlation does not imply causation” refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them.
When it comes to houses, the amount of the down payment and incomes vary considerably among prospective purchasers so there is not a direct relation between incomes and house prices.
Good read:
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/charles-montgomery-we-built-a-home-to-solve-some-of-the-greatest-challenges-of-our-times
There are quite a number of people in Victoria who earn 100k or more. However, that doesn’t mean that they partner up with someone making this income so they have 200k to use to buy a house.
The divorce/separation rate is 40%. One partner is often lower income or takes time off work when children are young. People have significant student and car loans.
Statscan seems like the most reliable data we have for household income. Anecdotal evidence might point to some divergence but, most likely, it points to who you interact with being more like you or your work creating an environment where you interact with higher income folks.
I dont expect much of a drop in rates but rather a stabilization of rates just about where they are now.
@VicREAnalyst, to earn over 100K in the provincial government, you need to be in management and up, which are all excluded from union membership. So, certainly not the average salary of unionized provincial public servants.
The Fed and BoC are not ready to celebrate the drop in inflation. The last couple of times they prematurely eased, inflation came back strong. They will most likely overshoot to the downside before dropping the rates.
That is why I said friends from high school. I didn’t know at 16 yrs old that they would be household income >$200,000.
As I said I don’t work at Walmart, but there a lot of 100k jobs out there from what I can see when you look at municipal budgets, island health list of over $75,000, etc., etc.
The absolute number of these jobs seems like it would warrant a higher % than 2%.
Here are the stats on SFH sales last year: https://www.vreb.org/media/attachments/view/doc/2022_annual_summaries_of_residential_sales_by_area/pdf/2022_annual_summaries_of_residential_sales_by_area.pdf
Core Area
Victoria / Victoria West 364
Oak Bay 168
Esquimalt 114
View Royal 82
Saanich East 531
Saanich West 263
Seems to be a case of sample selection bias. Rich people hang out with rich friends and think everyone in the population is rich.
No, the table I referenced has an option for household income.
The table and figure you are referencing includes the income of unrelated individuals at the same address who would presumably not be going together to buy a home if they are typical – particularly if you have a main and basement suite at the same address, which is quite common.
If you narrow the household criteria down to a census household with two earners you get:
$200,000 and over 7,620
I would suspect that the majority of these households already own a home.
Isn’t the table you are looking at for income earned by individuals? Here is the link for total household income:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810005501
Where did you find this? The table I was looking at only goes to the top 10% household income in Victoria CMA for various household structures and does not support that 10% of all households are earning over 200k. Do you have a link?
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/dv-vd/income-revenu/index-en.html
1760 mortimer st sold for 1.1M in the past week and that is a 2,000 sqft house on a 6300 sqft lot in a neighborhood one block from UVIC.
And that number has grown significantly as from 2020 to 2023 the wage growth would be in excess of 10%. Things are not as dire as some people make it out to be.
In 2020, there were 17,585 households earning over $200,000 per year in Victoria CMA, which is about 10% of all households.
My mistake, you posted 1.1M for a 1500 sqft house, so for an extra 100k it all of a sudden becomes a nice house in many nice neighborhoods with possible suites…..
There are only a small number of SFHs bought and sold in this range each year in Victoria. There are way more very motivated buyers than homes. Instead of focusing just on income, consider how many buyers have the following bump up effects on their max purchase price even at higher rates:
Or perhaps scroll down to Kristan’s post explaining these effects for his family.
I posted quote and link to that article. And then I posted that their analysis is based on affordability at 30% of disposable income which is not reasonable as an upper limit, imo.
Where did I post that? I stated that if you can only afford a home valued at 650k with no reference to income, which gets you a condo in Victoria and double this with another family who can also afford this amount you can get a house with a suite or suitable in the core. If you have kids and want a yard and location near schools then this is a viable option.
Based on the calculator and 20% down at 5.25% and 30 years you need a household income of about 130k to qualify for the 650k share: https://wowa.ca/calculators/affordability
REAdict: That is not very helpful since it includes a lot of students and retired people. Nor is it helpful to look at after tax since the banks look at pretax. Appreciate the effort but your stat is not on point as to buying potential.
Average after tax income in Saanich for those over 15, about 100,310 people, was $47,600 in 2020. And about 13,000 over $100,000 a year.
Max, it’s called a cost-sharing arrangement in that case. Not rent.
Marko’s first hand experiences says something different, competition is fierce in the 1.2M and under price point.
Since I am not great at stats maybe one of the stats Gods here can drum up some answers on income here. Perhaps, a good question is what is the average thirty to forty year old two income family making here on the island. We have a lot of students, retired and divorced people here that will bend the stats downwards but are not really indicative of actual affordability. It is nice to argue that houses are unaffordable and yet the fact is that housing is selling at a fast pace and good prices.
If the average person could get such a job the average person would have such a job. The average person does not make anywhere near that. There simply aren’t enough of these jobs.
last night u were posting about how 350k a year can only afford a 1500 sqft house. Now it’s 200k a year in a suited house in a nice neighborhood for 1.2M. And I am the one living in a bubble?
absolutely zero common sense and living in a bubble if you think two people making a combined 200k a year is some type of rare achievement.
Provincial government union desk jobs are over 100k now without OT . Dental hygenist is 50+ an hour. Ticketed trades are 40+ an hour. Fireman, police all over 100k without OT. These are all normal jobs that the average person can get, absolutely nothing rare or special about them. This is the reality despite what the stats say.
Meet another potential client 😉
It’s been posted before and there will be a table at stats can for victoria households but I don’t have time atm. This site has an overview and link to stats Can data- along with a calculator that shows 200k household income is the 98th percentile in Canada. https://www.thekickassentrepreneur.com/household-income-percentile-calculator-for-canada/
Indeed. I was quoting CRA data from 2021 earlier when generating 200k/year = 98th percentile. I can dig out the link tomorrow.
I would and did consider this in the past and have lived in a rental townhouse. I think townhouses can be a good option but you won’t get the area, the yard or the appreciation a double townhouse budget will get you, and if you are only able to afford 650k you won’t get a 3 bed townhouse at all in an area that I’d like to live in.
However, with 1.2-1.3 you can afford a large house in many nice neighborhoods and some of these homes will already be suited. Non-strata duplexes also come up. For example, this non-strata duplex in Esquimalt is 1.2 – 600k each and you have a 3 bed 1 bath unit each: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25805451/11231125-norma-crt-esquimalt-saxe-point
Anecdotes and gut feelings are cool, but I think it would be pretty easy to verify what the top 2% of households earn in Victoria by consulting the census. Maybe someone can do that and settle this debate once and for all.
Is it really only 2%? 50%+ of my Vic High School friends are in the >200k/year household income bracket and I certainly didn’t pick them back in the day based on any future potential income metrics. One is a doctor, one is a federal government employee @ 126k/year + wife nurse.
Someone just posted on Reddit they are making approx. $51/hr driving Uber in Victoria (with a Tesla so no gas). Two ok jobs plus a bit of hustle 200k doesn’t seem super far fetched.
I don’t know what to make of it all, I also don’t work at Walmart or Thrifties either and I am sure there are lot of those households but still 2% seems awfully low.
One thing I have to say is there is a sea of opportunity out there for someone who wants to hustle a bit. So many easy side hustle things out there that did not exist 10-20-30 years ago. I have a bit of an online side hobby/interest I am making $1,000/month on that consumes about <5 minutes per day. When I am away on vacation I rent out my place (1,000 sq/ft condo) via AirBnb Long Term for $7,000/month. Not even 10 years ago I would have left it vacant and made $0. Seriously considering getting my class 4 driver's licence so I can turn on Uber when I finish a showing in Sidney/North Saanich and maybe grab someone from the airport or ferries coming into town. I don’t need the money by any means but why not? I have free supercharging on the Tesla, meet another person and hear another story and maybe learn something.
Lot damn better than delivering fliers in the rain which we did for years when we arrived to Canada.
Why not just an older 3 bed townhome? That would be approx. half the price of a decent SFH one would be co-owning.
no, why would it.
Would having your own blood children with full documentation to prove that, contributing to the household…not renting, rather just contributing to the household expenses. Would that violate any tax laws by not declaring that contribution to the household?
Just rear your own tenants.
I have pretty much accepted the fact that my two boys 18 and 14 will never be leaving home. I am fortunate that its a large house with a spacious lower level with a full kitchen and bath which will easily accommodate them both at 1300 sq/ft. They will however be working and paying rent. Welcome to the new world.
Bubble life
Unfortunately I think you are the one living in a bubble.
That is the top two percent of households. If you think it is easy to be in the top 2% you are living in a bubble.
A simple twist of fate has everyone’s favourite whipping post mentioning co-ownership in this afternoon’s GreaterFool blog:
“by the way, never get into joint ownership of a family property with your sis or brother. You might not be able to get out easily, end up in a destructive dispute, or fighting with your sibling’s ex when his/her marriage disintegrates. Don’t go there.”
As if one’s own divorce wouldn’t be bad enough for the mortgage, buying into another couple’s nightmare would be imprudent.
Ummmm…. that is a huge difference for household income. Plenty of jobs/professions can get two people to a combined $200k, $350k is exponentially harder.
Marko, please chime in with your first hand experience so the people on here don’t think I am biased or whatever….
Co-ownership creates a cold chill down my spine.
Sure the number is wrong.
But the actual number is similarly outrageous. 200k/year is 98th percentile in household income. 240/260/270k is 99th.
Maybe I got you and totoro mixed up, I am just saying that link doesn’t pass the smell test so no point defending it.
Benchmark = 32%
Cap = 39%
As for the link, sure, whoever wrote that screwed up the calculation. I was offering a corrected one.
If A level lender cap out at 39%/44% then why are you using 32%. Anyhow, now take that $204k you re-ran and compare it to that $349k in the link you posted earlier and tell me if that is a big difference or not? Actually I just did it, the delta is 145k in annual income or 41.5% less than what that link indicated. Hence the link doesn’t pass the smell test, its the same b.s. as that other link where half of Canadians are apparently 200 bucks away from bankruptcy or some crap like that.
Well, I’ll know with certainty on the scale of a day or two, but my understanding is that insured mortgages have a max amortization of 25 years but uninsured ones can have up to 30. Thing is, you generally pay a slight penalty in the interest rate relative to a 25 year amort, on the order of .1% or so.
The criteria seems like it caps mortgages for properties over 1 million at 25 years?
As opposed to thinking that the stress test is optional?
A-level lenders cap out shelter costs and total debt servicing at 39%/44% respectively. 32% for shelter is not my number but the publicly advertised benchmark. If you rerun the computation I gave earlier at 39% of shelter, 30 year amort, 5.4% fixed-rate, you end up needing ~204k to qualify at 20% down instead of ~248k.
You may not think it’s common sense, but all I’m doing is to describe standard lending practices. I didn’t pull these numbers out of a hat after all.
—
Totoro, Patrick, thanks!
Are you suggesting that there A-list lenders that don’t apply this criteria to high income borrowers? I am not an expert in this area – the only exception I’ve seen is for high net worth individuals and there used to be another exception for professionals starting out.
This sites post the policies most of the big banks apply and they don’t post the high income exception – maybe you have better info. https://wowa.ca/calculators/affordability
The 32% cap which is an arbitrary figure and then adding stress test on top of that…. The concept of capping housing costs at around 30% income is not meant for higher income situations, It makes sense for someone making 5k a month, doesn’t really make sense for someone making 20k a month.
Thanks for the update Kristan. The new plan sounds great. Good luck!
Do you mean trying to buy a house without a suite in our market even if you have 240k down?
The above lacks complete common sense.
From: https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/osfi-negative-amortization-mortgages
OFSI commeth……the more that needs to held in capital requirements against the riskier loans will translate to less lending overall. Credit tightening will be an interesting thing to watch.
I hope you get exactly what you want Kristan!
People are free to make their own choices based on their means and circumstances – totally fine with it and the way it should be.
I have 4 kids and driving 20 hours of Uber, living in 240 square feet or renting would not have been attractive alternatives – people without kids have way more flexibility. I would have preferred coownership to moving, but get that a lot of people despise this.
A benchmark house in Calgary is $730,299. With 5% down you’ll need a minimum of 50k to pay cmhc insurance and 5% down and a household income of $180k according to this: https://itools-ioutils.fcac-acfc.gc.ca/MQ-HQ/MQCalc-EAPHCalc-eng.aspx
Not many Canadians have a household income of 180k. Moving to Calgary is not the solution for a SFH for the vast majority. Maybe Kamloops…
Regarding the hypothetical 1500 ft^2 home. Too small for a suite. Say it costs 1.2m, with down payment of 20% = 240k. Playing by the rules with standard lending criteria (25 year amort, cap on shelter costs at 32% of annual income, and accounting for stress test) at a posted rate of 5.9% leads to a necessary annual income of ~274k ignoring property taxes. Less than 375 but not by as much as you think. At a more realistic discounted rate of 5.4% you’re looking at ~263k instead. At a 30 year amort, ~248k.
With PR, tenure (!), and some help from parents, we are finally entering the fray today.
For us the solution is, in some sense, to not play by the rules. We’re shooting for a place with a suite in the mid-peninsula (cheaper than the core, Saanich, and North peninsula; we’ll see if we’re forced to the west shore), and will go with our bank Vancity. They count suite income extremely favorably; allow us to go up to 39% of annual income for shelter costs; we’ll do a 30 year amort; and have a very large down payment (for FTB) thanks to 15 years of heavy saving plus help from family and UVic. Our upper reach is ~1.3m with a one-bedroom suite and ~1.35-1.4m with a two-bedroom suite. Thanks to the growth this year existing inventory even up to those prices sucks compared to where it did even one or two months ago, but hopefully something comes up. We’d like to purchase by the end of the year but can be flexible on the timing.
One amazing thing to me is that after accounting for suite income, even at those prices, our monthly mortgage payments will be around 3300-3500/month. Not much more than renting a two bedroom apartment! And not vastly more than we’re paying for rent now.
Thanks to all for all of the knowledge passed on.
totoro, do you like apples?
How do you like them apples?
July has started out half decent in terms of sales. No flood of inventory either. At this point the market resiliency to these interest rates is mind boggling, to me anyway. We’ve spent last 15 years listening to “rates have no where to go but up which will tank the market” and here we are at 5% rates and near all time high prices. What da!
Oh ok, I just never usually see any for sale there, but I also don’t look constantly so thats why.
I am one of those that absolutely hates the idea. I would exercise every other option before getting involved in co-ownership.
i/ Move to Calgary
ii/ Live in 240 sq/ft at Janion
iii/ Drive Uber 20 hrs a week on top of my day job
iv/ Rent
v/ Etc
I guess it might work for some people, not for me.
Only two new listings in the last month? The other four have been sitting for a while. I don’t see anything unusual, huge complex and inventory in any particular building can be completely random. 989 Johnson had 11 listings recently and then 6 sold and now it is back down to 5 listings.
Overall condo inventory is not exploding by any means. We had 127 condo listings downtown a few months ago and now down to 105. Certain product is critically low. I’ve been selling units on Saghalie Rd for 13 years now and 3-4 years ago after the Encore was finished we use to run between 20 and 30 active listings between the Promontory, Encore, Bayview One. Today it is at 3 listings one being over $4 million. I’ve never seen so few listings on Saghalie Rd in my entire career. Nothing listed at the Encore, people posting on the facebook group page for the building if anyone is interested in selling.
Agree that there is an issue with HelloSafe using “30% of disposable income” debt to income ratio. This points to an affordability measure rather than a max lending criteria. And they are using 25 years not 30 for the term.
The square foot house price they used for Victoria comes out to about 1.1 million for 1500 square feet. The benchmark house price in Victoria is $1,310,100 so 1.1 seems about right.
Today’s new stress test rate is the higher of 5.25% and your mortgage rate + 2% – or 7.25%. However the lowest stress test rate for homes over 1,000,000 is 7.34%.
If you have a household income of 220k and no other debt the max mortgage qualification using the calculator below and conventional lenders appears to currently be $880,000 and you’d need 220k down to get to 1.1 million. If you don’t have 20% down you are looking at properties under $1,000,000 and will need to add the CMHC insurance in.
If these calculations are correct, if you don’t have a down payment of over 20% you aren’t buying a house in Victoria even if you are high income unless you use a high rate b lender at rates that are 1.5-2% higher than A lenders.
https://wowa.ca/calculators/affordability
lol Barrister. I know………..I should have!! Anyway, been a lot of years since I have had a mortgage. But the guideline used to be that you could only qualify for a mortgage up to three years of household income.
(But no excuse) Maybe it is because I had THREE cups of coffee!
Alexandra: Go have a morning coffee and rethink what you just wrote.
US inflation down to 3% today:
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The headline rate of inflation has been moving closer to the Fed’s 2 per cent target after peaking at more than 9 per cent last year. However, core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy costs — has proved more sticky, raising expectations that the US central bank will need to lift interest rates further. Core CPI fell more modestly, from 5.3 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the June data.
“Headline inflation is coming down, but . . . there is still quite a distance to go from 4.8 per cent to where the Fed wants core inflation to be at 2 per cent,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. “Taken with the employment report [last week], this is still likely to mean another interest rate increase.”
(https://www.ft.com/content/c86136db-17be-487d-aa8f-642b4b81aa1f)
^ That would be common sense.
Gosh common sense and elementary school math please.
a couple charts from the BoC report today (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/mpr-2023-07-12.pdf):
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26 May 2023
“The first affordability guideline as set out by CMHC, is that your monthly housing costs, i.e. Mort., P&I, taxes and heating should not exceed 32% of gross household monthly income.
June, 2023
Benchmark Price for SFH in City of Victoria: $1,173,000. 32% of $1,173,000 = $375,360.
Hey, thanks for the chart introvert.
This will (hopefully) keep everybody from reading between the lines and projecting their bias. It also saves the BoC from endless public denunciation if future data causes them to change course.
As a saver who eschews debt, thier getting back to raising the overnight rate is better than christmas in July.
After today’s rate hike:
That would qualify you for a $1.4 million dollar mortgage. I doubt the avg 1500 sq foot house is worth $1.7 million.
No need, doesn’t even pass the smell test. Anyone who knows how mortgages work, has some common sense and have access to realtor.com would instantly know the headline in that link is bs.
Marko, what’s up with the falls? All of sudden 6 units for sale. Air bnb slowdown?
Bank of Canada up another 25 points.
Can one of the STATS GODS weigh in with what is happening to the 2mil to 4 mil market? I seem to be seeing six or more listings for every sales for many months now. But I am not seeing much in the way of price reductions.
Totoro, that annual income seems to be rather off. Not sure how they calculate that. Borrowing a million is about 8k a month or under a hundred k a year. It might be correct based on Banks lending criteria which I am not overly familiar with. Perhaps the experts can weigh in?
LMAO, if that was the case then she would have read the content of the link below before actually posting. Lol or maybe she did……
Annual income needed to buy a 1500 square foot home in Victoria at current interest rates is estimated at $349,277.
https://hellosafe.ca/en/investing/real-estate/house-salary-bc
GoFundMe is the new insurance.
Wow Patriotz…..I don’t believe I have ever called you or anyone else names on here. We all have our opinions.
Also I don’t think I admire anyone’s more than Totoro’s. She is a very intelligent and knowledgeable lady.
Once you have two “legal” suites….what is to stop having two addresses? i.e. 1224 Jones St A & 1224 Jones St B. The two separate accommodations could be strata titled. Now you have a large single family home plus a one/two bedroom condo and in turn they could be sold separately. I don’t think this scenario is out of the realm of possibility.
Perhaps the house was uninsurable:
An off-duty RCMP officer twice ran into a burning house containing tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition and explosive black powder to rescue two men and a woman in Lake Cowichan early Sunday.
The blaze set off the ammunition and caused explosions, waking neighbours shortly after 4:40 a.m.
Now the small community of 3,300 is rallying to help the Bell family, long-time local residents. Mike Bell, son Travis and a woman believed to be a family member were in the house at the time of the fire.
The meaning I get is that you’re paranoid. Look, there are a lot of things governments can and should do to increase the housing supply, and many of them will be unpopular with a lot of people. No reason for them to do something which doesn’t add to supply which would be unpopular with a lot of people. In fact it would decrease supply by discouraging people from creating suites and encouraging them to absorb existing suites.
No.
I simply posted a link to an article about buying a $1.85 million house with complete strangers, and opined that that sort of arrangement was full of potential pitfalls and difficulties, including extricating oneself from the title.
How it got so convoluted is beyond me; circular arguments and moving goalposts aren’t really my cup of tea.
Are you asking about the difference between co-ownership and strata title in terms of potential pitfalls? Or are you pointing out some? Legally they are similar in terms of allocation of ownership %. A strata owner owns 100% of the specific condo and a share in common property. A co-owner owns ex. 50% of the entire unit with the right to occupy and use ex. one unit in a non-strata duplex.
Have you reviewed the coownership agreements and mixer mortgage documents? At the end of the day you are in a similar situation as a strata in terms of financing and maintenance BUT people are more used to strata and there is the strata act that applies so fractional co-ownership will have a smaller market and probably a lower value making them easier for more people to buy into and harder to sell. Over time that will change is my guess as they become more accepted and known. And the new legislation may permit strata titling of houseplexes on what are currently SFH zoned lots.
My question to you is how is strata ownership with strangers different from coownership with a partner you know and a coownership agreement with dispute resolution mechanisms that you both have considered and agreed to in advance?
That is what agreements are for. They spell out in advance what happens if only one party wants to sell. Things change. You go into anything knowing that. Given the rate of divorce, it is less risky that co-owning with your spouse without a written agreement imo. And yet, in the event of divorce it is the sale of the family home that provides both parties with the greatest part of their new net worth. Same will happen with coownership vs. if people remained renters.
RE law is not my forte, but I suspect that a duplex/fourplex has multiple titles, unlike the situation I broached and you replied to:
Co-owning a home with strangers, and the potential pitfall incurred in such.
I am glad for your success in co-owning with your best friend and hope that if either of you desired to sell their share that your friendship survives that too.
I’m not sure what you mean. Multiple co-owners are already permitted to share title to a property with assigned % of ownership. What the new legislation means is that many homes may, after the changes, legally become house-plexes with up to ex. four units. Currently in many areas only a secondary suite is permitted, or no suite at all.
Thanks, tooro.
I am aware of those proposed changes, but they do not seem to apply to multiple entities co-buying a house and sharing title.
Well, now you know of someone who has done this successfully. I also co-owned property with my best friend with zero conflict or consternation. We are still best friends and contemplating another coownership project.
I do agree that you need to choose carefully and, most importantly, have a very good coownership agreement. Stratas show us that people don’t get along, but then in stratas you don’t get to choose your coownership partners, or write your own rules.
This is a short summary:
Additional legislation will be introduced this year to allow secondary suites in every community across the province. Next year, homeowners will be able to access a forgivable loan of 50 per cent of the cost of renovations, up to a maximum of $40,000 over five years, if they are willing to rent those secondary suites at below market rate for at least five years.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-housing-crisis-billions-plan-build-more-homes-1.6799881#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20plan%2C%20Housing%20Minister%20Ravi,density%20permitted%20in%20areas%20well%20served%20by%20transit.
Also some municipalities are going further and probably only a matter of time before Victoria considers more than the current missing middle:
Complete overview here: https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Homes_For_People.pdf
re: Home insurance discussion from a few weeks ago.
Times Colonist this morning “Off-duty Mountie saves three people from Lake Cowichan house fire”
“They have lost everything as the entire structure was swallowed up in flames …. The family had no insurance … Neighbour has set up an online fundraiser to help the family… ” we see this too often.
This option sounds a lot like the urban version of the rural nightmare called, “tenants in common” land ownership.
I know of few such arrangements, and all are full to the brim with conflict & consternation, even before attempting to sell ones share and free up capital. Finding a reasonable valuation, someone interested in investing, and then having them accepted by the other owners is more than troublesome. Add in new & ex spouses and returning offspring, and more than a good agreement and a goodly lawyer fund are required.
totoro, I’d be curious to read about the coming legislative changes that you mention, if you would be so kind as to give me a bit more info about that.
I think you get my meaning Totoro.
Legal suites already are subject to all of these things.
I can see one day, with the governments continual interference into so many people lives, that they will force owners who have a SFD with a legal suite into some form of strata titling. This way, more taxes, more house insurance, more capital gains etc.
Coownership is the solution to high prices for some people. Combine this with the legislative changes in the fall and there will be many people interested in co-owning a large SFH that they can the legally turn into a house-plex which much better suites than condo would offer for a lower price. There is already a service for this: https://www.cohobc.com/
I’ve been posting about this option for over a decade. Most people hate the idea it seems but with separate spaces and a good agreement it is not a bad option. It is what I’d do right now if I was just starting out. It is what we already did for our children. I would actually like to do this with others for a vacation property. I might use the coho service!
That property in Errington is obviously a great price and lifestyle for the right person – if the parties get along – but not too different from owning a townhouse. To date the only thing missing to make this really viable (you can already get mixer mortgages for coownership) has been a niche listing service in the event that you want to sell your interest. Now it is here: https://www.cohobc.com/sales
On the subject of RE affordability and number of people per square foot, forget about multi-generational households and consider buying a $1.85 million house with complete strangers:
“Sleeping together all in one bedroom, the family sought a bigger space, but like thousands who live in Canada’s second-most expensive city, they couldn’t come up with well over $1 million to buy one…Fast-forward two years from the time they began their search, and the family now lives in a four-storey house in East Vancouver with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a recreational room, and a backyard.
The catch is, it’s co-owned with another family who were complete strangers when they bought it.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/9824139/vancouver-collaborative-home-ownership-increase/
extremis malis extrema remedia ?
Sarah Silverman and two bestselling novelists have sued Meta and OpenAI, the tech startup behind ChatGPT, accusing the companies of using the authors’ copyrighted books without their consent to “train” their artificial intelligence software programs.
The proposed class-action lawsuit was filed in a San Francisco federal court on Friday by authors Richard Kadrey, known for his supernatural horror series “Sandman Slim,” and Christopher Golden, along with Silverman, who, aside from acting, published the bestselling memoir “The Bedwetter” in 2010. Each suit seeks just under $1 billion in damages, according to court filings. The authors alleged the two tech companies had “ingested” text from their books into generative AI software, known as large language models, and failed to give them credit or compensation.
The topic is AI.
This is just for entertainment.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/fNQjEi7yQDiO/
I still prefer my writing much more thoughtful and organic
How bad was last July’s sales? was it also a 20 year low?
Back next week! Still I was pretty impressed with what the new code interpreter can do. Will definitely be working with it more
No, I’d much prefer to read your thoughts and writing, with AI used only as a tool.
If you hadn’t said it was AI I don’t think I would have noticed.
As usual with AI, after I thought about it some more I discovered a mistake in the original analysis because it analyzed January 1990 to June 2023 and the half year messed up the results somewhat (and the AI didn’t catch it). Have updated the bar chart and made some minor edits to the text
So, should I retire and hand over the reins to the AI?