Two very different markets in Victoria
We know that for two months now the pattern has been quite consistent: sales and new listings are slowly but steadily ramping up from the bottom in April. We are now outpacing last year on new listings, while sales remain down about 14%. Based on this trend I think we will match last year’s sales rate by the end of the month.
Because new listings have recovered first, the market has been persistently weaker than this time last year, and that looks to continue for a while.
However that captures all residential property types sold in Greater Victoria (Sooke to Sidney, not including the Gulf Islands or anything north of the Malahat). The reality is the recovery has not been at all even, with the detached market much hotter than condos.
While both single family and condo markets were weaker in May compared to last year, there was already a clear disparity then, and that has continued in June. May months of inventory for detached properties was up only 1.8 from last year, while condos jumped by 4. That jump reversed a 3 year trend of the condo market being tighter (and prices appreciating more) than single family.
Over ask sales tell the same story. For houses, the pandemic appears as a blip. After a small drop in over ask sales in April, we are right back to just about one in four going for over the asking price. Meanwhile condos were hit from a reasonable one in seven or so going over ask before the virus to now just one in twenty. There’s always some over ask sales no matter the market, and 3% over asks is about as low as this measure goes.
Factors like rising insurance costs may play a small role, but those have been in the news for months and didn’t seem to drag on the condo market much. I think it’s primarily that condos have simply seen more supply hit the market from investors shedding risk. In the last two weeks we saw 40 more condos listed (24% more) than the same two weeks last year.
Not to be ignored is the pandemic causing a shift in preferences to detached due to the fear of shared spaces. To test that we can look at townhouses, where May months of inventory increased by only 1.6 from last year, closely matching detached rather than the much bigger jump for condos. For strata units, I think exterior unit access will be a good selling feature from now on.
It remains to be seen if condos will pick up again on a delay from the detached market or if it will stay consistently weaker for the medium term. There is some reason to think that once income and mortgage supports expire in the fall (assuming they expire then) it will again be the condo market hit more than detached. It’s quite possible that just like in the employment market where we have a drastically uneven impact, the real estate market will also go in two different directions in the coming year. That will confound forecasts based on the overall average price of all property types, as the skew in sales towards higher prices detached properties pushes overall averages upward without that telling us much about how the sub-markets are actually doing.
Also weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB
| June 2020 |
June
2019
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 125 | 284 | 740 | ||
| New Listings | 378 | 702 | 1221 | ||
| Active Listings | 2637 | 2730 | 3040 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 33% | 40% | 61% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | -41% | -27% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 4.1 | ||||
Inventory is heading in a positive direction again with the increase in new listings. Compared to last year, we’ve gone from down 16% two weeks ago to down 13% last week, to now only down 9%. We’re likely to exceed 650 sales for the month, which would put us below the 20 year average of 775, but well up from historic lows (that was 455 in June 1990, and there are several other years in the low 500s).
“When rates rise they will regret that decision.”
The grifters running the BOC will continue to punish savers. Rates will rise over their dead multiple investment properties.
The grifters in Ottawa will keep the doors open wide for immigration, sell 10 year visas to the CCP, continue to drive down wages with modern day TFW slaves, bust unions, allow the offshoring of jobs with dubious corporate “free” trade deals, ignore Chinese drug triads pushing fentanyl, ignore money laundering as financial crimes units are defunded, reward offshore tax scofflaws with pandemic bailouts, pay CERB to foreign students who displace locals while denying help to >1 million Canadians, etc.
They will do whatever they can to jack the *Vancouver-Model-Snow-Washing-Ponzi-Scheme” known as the Canadian economy, so as to keep floating their investment porfolios, while starving out folks on disability, the unemployed, the under-employed, renters, and First Nations.
Is there any wonder we came in last place with the UN vote?
https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2020/01/15/the-rcmp-is-shutting-down-its-financial-crimes-unit-in-ontario-heres-why-former-top-mounties-says-its-a-mistake.html
We’ve been sold out by LibCon opportunists who really don’t give a damn about 99% of Canadians, future generations, the planet, or anything other than themselves. Our garbage voting system, where two provinces dictate the outcome (and are rewarded handsomely for voter ignorance, complicity, &/or blind partisanship) guarantees more of the same. That’s why Trudeau betrayed his campaign promise – the status quo unduly benefits his party. Democracy be damned.
Canada is corrupt. Other than nostalgia, I see zero benefit to BC being part of this country.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/06/22/market-takes-off-how-much-pent-up-supply-and-demand-is-there/
If they were approved for a mortgage, and living here, and had a down payment, and could actually afford a house.
Not really, core just increases in size. Saanich, Esquimalt, Oak bay weren’t part of the core at one point, now they are.
Finally RCMP did something good:
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/rcmp-issued-7-tickets-to-americans-found-in-banff-alta-over-the-past-week-1.4993704
We bought 11 years ago, with a basement suite, and will have it paid off in another 4.
Really glad we didn’t listen to the bears here.
That’s been the argument on HHV for 13 years in a row. Someone that’s financially disciplined with a basement suite could have paid off a house in that time.
11 realtors convinced their clients to getting into a bidding war? I don’t know.
I had a listing last week, 3 bed/1bath for $749,900. We had 6 offers and sold for $765,000. Five young couples and one young single buyer with a solid health care profession.
The overarching concept is really simple and I think people understand it; they just try to ignore it as it doesn’t fit with their hope of affordable housing.
Fixed number of SFHs in the core, but the population increases every year. The math long term is simple imo.
When rates rise they will regret that decision.
Sorry my comment was supposed to be directed to Marcus, its been a long day already.
@Marcus
To quote one instance where a house sold for $100,000 over ask and not include any information as to why that happened is not informative at all. Did they renovate? Did they add a basement suite? Or did the realtors convince their client that this was a once in a lifetime chance to buy the perfect home?
My Reality Check is now showing 99 drops in the ask price of properties for this month. As far as I understand this means that at least 99 sellers are not seeing an uptick in the market but just the opposite. Some of these properties have multiple reductions such as 1905 Shakespeare Street and 166 Robertson Street.
My question is what price range are properties selling in? To make it simple how many single family homes under a million and how many over?
Do people care about the issue of discrimination when it comes to renting? Yes they do.
Does this prevent landlords from doing all sorts of crap like putting in small showers into units (i.e. you discriminate against people with kids), etc? Tons of other real life stuff I can list off that’s real life, not theory.
Real life is 12 uses per year of this bylaw. I would want to see how many times out of those 12 something tangible was actually done (like a tenant has to move out). Now that the limit is 6, throw in a common law relationship….like I can’t see this being more than 2 uses per year.
Here is also real life……https://canada.constructconnect.com/joc/news/economic/2020/01/developers-face-triple-digit-dcc-increase-in-saanich-b-c after you spend 5 years waiting to get rezoned because city council is dealing with a bylaw that will be used twice a year 🙂
Also, love how >95% of suites in Saanich don’t have a permit and are unauthorized but that’s perfectly fine.
Ok, hang on. There is definitely waste in government, but a surprising number of people cared about this issue. I recall hearing multiple radio stories on CBC, and reading various letters in the T-C, etc. There were at least a few anecdotal evictions in these stories, as well as many tales from boomers and seniors worried about trashy yards and noisy parties. I’ve lived in so-called rooming houses (IMO more often it is a young person who signs the lease and then sublets rooms to friends and acquaintances; different than if a landlord signs separate leases with strangers) and currently have an issue with a noisy neighbour who rents out rooms, so I see both sides.
When an issue is on the radio, in the news, discussed by neighbours, etc. it makes people pause before testing its legal boundaries. Of course we don’t expect perfect enforcement (you know you can’t have a fence on a corner lot in Saanich over 1 m in height?? Drive around and see how often that one is followed). But by having the bylaw and stories about its enforcement, it makes many landlords (not all) less likely to break it, especially if their cash flow and solvency depends on it.
I can’t really imagine that cranky seniors really mind busy, happy houses full of young people near them. The real issues are noise, yard upkeep, and cars (both parked on the street and causing traffic). The bylaw is supposed to be a grab-bag for all of these, and does it poorly. I wouldn’t object to a ‘max number of parked cars’ bylaw and stepping up current bylaw enforcement, as long as it’s done reasonably. That might help keep the intergenerational peace.
I don’t understand why you would want a separate law to hold over people for an unrelated problem.
Put something in to deal with the issue instead of something entirely different.
There were definitively good buys to be had 14 days prior to this in the high end market. I had clients pick up some great buys around $1.5 million in the middle of covid19.
High-end market in general hasn’t appreciated much at all. I’ve seen $2.5 million 2013 purchases selling for $2.8 million. If you bought 5 entry level homes in the core in 2013 for $2.5 million you would clearing close to $4 million now, not $2.8 million.
Sikh families often all live together, you could easily have over 6 occupants over the age of 19.
Not really something to cheer, Apple built their empire on obsoleting perfectly usable devices through software updates. They’re responsible for a shit ton of waste.
I know, but if it is not enforceable on a family of 5 renting to a couple in the basement how is it enforceable when the tenant opens the door point to his roommate hanging out on the couch and says they are in a common law relationship?
I don’t understand why you don’t make it maximum number occupants over the age of 19…..like something you can easily verify? Why make it “related” which is impossible to disprove?
And out of those 12 maybe there was something tangible done in 2 cases which brings us back to your original estimate of a couple 🙂
FYI: “A woman in Texas is sharing her story of battling COVID-19 for a second time “(first in Feb/March and recovered, and then again in early June)
https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/texas-woman-tests-positive-for-covid-19-a-second-time/
No, not really.
This is only looking at market capitalization of oil and gas majors. It looks like they are not including Aramco which alone is worth more than Apple. The oil and gas sector is (now) much more than just the oil and gas majors, including private controlled and state controlled companies. Most of the value of this sector is in state controlled companies, as the oil and gas majors are less of a dominate force in the industry than they used to be.
The economy is more than just the stockmarket.
FYI, for those who didn’t follow Saanich “number of unrelated people “ bylaw event from the very beginning (last year):
If it was not because one councilor suggested to remove the bylaw instead changing the limit from 4 to 6, we likely wouldn’t have this lengthy report and documentations and discussion at all. But that is how our democracy works, I guess.
Yes, I think this bylaw is (and was) used by neighbours as a tool to achieve other ends.
Councillors realized this and promised to try to work on the issues that most homeowners cited (loud parties, unsightly premises, and parking).
Come on Marko, you know this bylaw is more about absent owner renting a house to multiple students (or the like) than about two families living in the suites. Or don’t you 😉
Really?
https://twitter.com/AlexCKaufman/status/1275051713141960704
It is not about changing anyone’s point, but about the usefulness of the bylaw (btw, we are fine with 6).
As I said (and experienced): it is a bylaw to make the absent owners accountable and motivate them to stop issues before being reported. Being through this and resolved it with an owner by mentioning this bylaw privately, I know it does work, at least for our 5 neighbors around that house. No one get evicted, and all in peace now.
But I’d rather not to be forced listening to those loud music every weekend at wee hours, saving police grief or not. Thanks, but no thanks. But you are welcome to try it if you don’t mind. 😉
So 12 uses per year? Not sure how that changes my point.
Yes, they did more than that, just not as much as noise and other types of complaints. Again from TC (wish you read it):
“ Saanich bylaw officers investigate around 25 complaints every year about the number of people living in a home, according to a December 2019 report to council by Brent Reems, director of building, bylaw, licensing and legal services. Just under 50 per cent of those investigations found that the occupants were breaching the bylaw.”
If the tenants don’t disturb the neighbors that much and repeatedly, not many people wouldn’t report about it at all. But it is a bylaw to make the absent owners accountable and motivate them to stop issues before being reported.
A basement suite comprises a separate dwelling unit. Of course there’s the other issue of whether the suite is legal in the first place.
It seems there are a lot more sales of SFHs at the high end than there have been for quite some time. And some of those went for high prices, like the $3M sale on Beach Dr that Leo mentioned in a previous comment. However, others sold far below initial asking prices (some may need to be tracked through relistings in last year to see this). And 987 Beach Dr, that sold in Dec 2019 for $2.25M, sold in June 2020 for $2.15M.
It doesn’t seem surprising that the median went up since the higher end of the market picked up, but one has to dig deeper to see whether prices went up and if there is still any bifurcation of the market with price. Anecdotally, it seems there were some good SFH deals for buyers at the upper end but maybe fewer (as a fraction of sales) for buyers in the mid to lower price range. There likely aren’t too many quick resales like 987 Beach to give hard evidence for the actual prices going up or down. But it would be interesting to read about whatever analysis you can pull out of the data, Leo.
As I said, City of Victoria employs people at over 150k in their real estate planning department only to overpay by millions for a property.
Saanich employs people to put together a thousand page document that is completely worthless. I completly agree in that I don’t think the bylaw is used more than twice a year and in my opinion it has a massive flaw in it if the tenants have half a brain and claim common law relationship.
Then someone goes to do a reasonable development in Saanich and it takes 5 years to approve…..common sense at its best.
There is soooooo much waste it is insane but I guess all the waste and non-sense jobs support our inflated real estate market. When you look at the long list of people at various muncipalities making over $100k/year those same people are out there buying/selling real estate.
Met another young Croatian couple this evening at my parents’ house….
Moved from Croatia to Moose Jaw three years ago (Manitoba/Saskatchewan easiest provinces to get PR). Busted their assess off at really tough jobs that nominated them. Received PR, quit both their jobs the next day and moved to Victoria. Both 26 yrs old, educated, super hard working, will likely be buying a townhome in next couple of years. More Croats have moved to Victoria in the last two years than the previous 20 years combined. Immigration is a massive demand side driver of real estate imo, but no one really seems to talk about it as a problem.
They have also been looking for a rental in Victoria the last 10 days with a budget of $1,500/month and damn certaintly no deals out there. There is HHV where the world is ending and then there is reality.
I don’t think so. Look at a property like the one that sold on Lucas…..100k more than what the sellers paid last year and they had 11 offers.
I would say there are market segments that are definitively at peak prices. I am not saying it will last…just noting what I am seeing out there right now.
Greater Victoria month to date median prices.
Single family: $880,000. Highest median price ever. Up 5% from May, up 10% from last June.
Condo: $430,000. Up 10% from the May (pushed down due to sales mix), up 2% from last June.
Basically condos roughly flat, single family likely experiencing upward price pressure
It’s all a bit academic. I bet Saanich didn’t even use the previous restriction on unrelated occupants more than a couple times a year. It was effectively unenforced, and the raising of it will do nothing to change that. But definitely worth nearly a thousand pages of correspondence and countless hours of staff and councillor time.
So a husband, wife, and three kids upstairs renting their basement suite to a couple would be in contravention of the 6 person limit bylaw? Doubt it.
Based on what we’ve seen lately, you probably saved someone a lot of grief by occupying them instead of leaving them to do “more important things”.
That is a good question – Leo what are you seeing for the median house prices so far this month?
Just returning to the resent uptick in property sales. It would be very interesting to find out what kind of price range these sales were in.
According to My Reality Check there have been 87 reductions in the ask price of properties in this area and only one price increase so far in June.
So could the increase in sales be due to the fact that the ask prices are in a more realistic range? This time last year it was hard to even find a single family property under $800,000 now there are 27 in my search area (only going out as far as N.Dairy and including Esquimalt).
It seems like sales have been strong during this last week. Is it mostly condos or houses (or both).
Interesting animated graph for 20 biggest municipalities on Vancouver Island since 1871:
https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1176172947607703552
People should just own their opinions and take whatever heat comes with it.
I never talk about affordable housing, am generally anti-development, and want prices to keep going up 🙂
City of Victoria doesn’t have any restriction on number of unrelated people in a house, is that the city you referred to?
Actually we do support density and don’t really care how many people live in the house next to us, as long as they don’t play very loud music between 11AM to 2AM every summer weekend, and no change after multiple police visits. Police have more important things to do than that.
The owner would just add fine to the rent, and nothing will change …. But if the violation of a bylaw would result in closing down (or reducing) the rental business, then the owner will enforce the rule to their tenants, like our back neighbor (the absent landlords of the 8 students rental house) did after we mentioned the bylaw of number. Instead of ignoring us (as they did before for noise issues), they gave us their contact info and asked us to contact them first, before going to the city. 😉
Again, from TC: “Saanich does have bylaws to address noise and property maintenance complaints, while Saanich police are responsible for monitoring parking infractions, but addressing concerns through these bylaws is not likely to have the same impact as limiting the number of roommates in a house, according to Dec 2019 Saanich Bylaw Report, because the district does not have enough staff to address a high volume of complaints.”
I’m looking forward to this July 1 2020 CMHC regulation changes that are only days away, let’s see what this does to sales activity.. Also I have a hard time believing we have a housing shortage, I think it’s more of an overall greed into the short term rental market which is in big trouble. Forbearance coming to an end soon, I betcha there will be a massive spike in vacant units along with severe rental price reductions as the desperation / depression really takes hold.
How about a family with kids? Not much societal need for post-secondary students to occupy a house as opposed to a suite or shared apartment or whatever, but it makes a big difference to families. And renting a house to 8 students is very likely to price out families.
And bumping up the limit for students is not going to get those empty nesters out anyway.
I don’t think that would work anyway. Only one-to-one common-law relationships are recognized. You can’t use them to claim that 8 (or whatever) people are related, unless there is already some kinship between half of them.
Seems to me that the whole household has to be related, not made up of smaller groups which have some family relationship within them.
Yes, two people living in a 6,000 sq/ft home on a 1/2 acre lot in town is very sustainable for society.
Some of these students will be operating on me one day and they need a place to live one way or another. Rather have 8 students in a house next to me than tent city across from my house which seems to be more acceptable with city councillors.
The comments against this development are a joke. It is so incredibly amusing to hear talk about affordable housing and in the same sentence come up with the most idiotic anti-development arguments.
You want to be anti-development? Great, it is an opinion, but please don’t talk about affordable housing and how expensive real estate is.
That’s too common sense, sorry.
Just limit the number on the max number of occupants…..unrelated/roomates is complete none-sense. For the millionth time how do you prove someone is a roomate and not common law? Why are all these resources being spent on something that is un-enforceable?
There is no paperwork for this and pretty sure bylaw officer can’t demand proof of how long you’ve lived together! If the tenant says they are in a common law relationship with their roomate what is the city/strata/anyone suppose to do?
If the problem is noise then let’s focus on that. Bill excess police noise responses to the owner. Outlawing affordable housing is not the solution.
From TC article pointed by Introvert:
So Saanich still has lower limit than Victoria (which includes Rockland, sorry Barrister 😉 ), View Royal and the Highlands, even after this new change.
Also from the TC article:
That is definitely true, as we have experienced: mention of “noise bylaw” to the owner + calls to bylaw officer for noise bylaw violation didn’t/couldn’t stop the noise, mention of “roommates limit bylaw” to the owner stopped the noise right away, and for good. 🙂
So every house in Saanach can effectively be turned into a rooming house or packed with students. Lovely
Recent local RE news roundup:
Clash of ideas on View Royal gateway
Developer Invictus Commercial Investment Corp. is proposing a three-building project with heights of three to six storeys, a total of 247 strata units, underground parking and a central courtyard.
https://www.timescolonist.com/real-estate/clash-of-ideas-on-view-royal-gateway-1.24156761
Saanich bylaw change will allow up to 6 unrelated people to live together
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/saanich-bylaw-change-will-allow-up-to-6-unrelated-people-to-live-together-1.24157023
This would be a good time for anyone Under 40 as well, since most of you actually missed your second dose.
Off-topic, but to anyone 40 or older: It’s not a bad idea to get an MMR booster. It might just save your life or at least make a miserable illness a mild one:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/health/mmr-vaccine-immunity-coronavirus/index.html
MMR is safe and has a proven long-term record. Your doctor can easily administer one.
From the info supplied by neighbors of course. Normally bylaw officer wouldn’t even come to check unless there are at least two complains (from different neighbors).
There are two student rental houses near us, one at beginning of our street with 5 students and never had any issues for past 11 years. One on the street backing to us that have two suites and total 7 or 8 students each year since 2017. It had a bad group of students in 2018, late weekends parties with very loud music running from 3pm to 2am, drinking on the roof, … Had to call Saanich police at 1am twice as we couldn’t sleep with the noise. But we met the owners afterwards and made it clear to them if the late loud party happens again, we would be forced to complain about the number of unrelated people live there. That did it and there has been no issue since.
And sales over $1M up 38% from this time last year too.
Turned out just like the stock market with a crazy fast recovery. 2008/09 we had 9 months of decreasing sales and prices before it turned around.
April 1 I said to start watching listings like a hawk and be prepared to pounce on them while the market was in peak fear mode. I was back and forth on whether I should even write that because I thought I was probably jumping the gun for anyone to buy so early in the pandemic. Turned out that of the few deals that materialised that was the time to get them. Definitely didn’t expect everything to bounce back so quickly, but there ya go, that’s the unpredictability of RE.
There is likely some correlation but also lots of confounding variables. 2012 was dead for sales and would have been good to buy, but if you were hoping to flip in 2 years it was a bad time to buy. Late 2015 with accelerating sales would have been a much better time for a 2 year window. Changes with a longer holding window of course. Biggest issue with high sales is that it’s high bidding wars and high risk of overpaying. It was sure a relaxing experience when we bought our place in 2013.
Not sure if it could really be turned into solid buying advice to look at sales levels. Probably MOI is more useful, but worth taking another look. One interesting thing was that prices flatlined after 2018 when sales were cut down despite MOI not being in buyers market territory.
$1 million plus number of sales up 150% in last 10 days (53) compared to 60 days prior to that @ 21.5/10 days. Market is nuts, not sure we’ve ever seen this kind of quick turnaround…pretty sure it took a few months when the market bounced back in 2009.
Now everyone is emailing about setting up showings to view properties……so predictable it is ridiculous. Market goes hot everyone wants to buy again. Market sucks and you can find reasonable deals, no one wants to buy.
Leo, any research that could be done on buying in months with lowest number of sales versus buying in months with highest number of sales and return/performance?
207 Beach Drive. https://www.remaxsaltspring.com/listing/272363445-150112762/207-beach-dr-victoria-bc-v8s-2l9/
March 2008 listed for $3M
Drop to $2.5M a month later
Drop to $2.2M a month later
Drop to $2M in June
Drop to $1.85M in August
SOLD $1.35M in May 2009.
Listed June 2020 for $3M
SOLD $3M 6 days later.
I still don’t understand how you enforce this when the bylaw office knocking on the door is greeted at the front door with the tenants noting they are common law? There is no paperwork that can be provided (you can check off single on tax returns and still be in a common law relationship).
Boy, that was a long meeting!
Even though the motion passed, it was evident in their remarks that all councillors and the mayor understand that the status quo in terms of the problems associated with many absentee landlords isn’t acceptable, and that real solutions need to be explored.
I must say that I was highly impressed by this council’s general thoughtfulness and desire to balance competing legitimate interests.
So this is going swimmingly
And it’s done
Indigenous people don’t choose to be Indigenous. The ER game as reported involved Indigenous people coming into the hospital.
I just saw your note, Leo, so I will leave it at that.
Sorry, Leo. Just read your post about content. Feel free to remove my previous comments.
But don’t worry. That disrespect would in no way affect students’ learning and how teachers approach it.”
Because choices adults make of their own free will are just like children with learning difficulties.
Well, we were assholes providing life-saving care. What’s your excuse?
Quick question.
Would we all be cool with teachers busting a gut about students’ learning difficulties? You know, as long as it was out of hearing range.
But don’t worry. That disrespect would in no way affect students’ learning and how teachers approach it.
It is not about political correctness. It is about treating people with politeness, dignity and respect as required under your code of conduct and more particularly where there is a power imbalance involving personal information. A patient should be expected to be non-abusive as well if they have capacity.
Treating patients insensitively across the board is a workplace culture that should not be acceptable. Time to let folks know it is not. Hopefully this investigation causes some change.
Sold Out, so what you’re saying, basically, is that you and the ER staff aren’t racists or homophobes; you’re just assholes.
You’ll have to enlighten me as to the Duncan bridge game.
I hate to break it you; the ER is not a politically correct environment. If someone arrives with a light bulb stuck in their rectum (actually happened), the staff is going to bust a gut (out of hearing range) because they’re human. Not because they’re racist, homophobic, or because it wasn’t a CSA-approved LED bulb.
One of my old co-workers(white paramedic) arrived in the ER following an ill-considered GHB adventure. He was stripped, diapered, and put in restraints to protect his IV. They knew who he was; this is standard practice for someone in his condition. Prior to his bloodwork coming back, there was much hilarity and speculation as to what substance could produce such comical results. He woke up hours later, surrounded by other intoxicant enthusiasts from the DTES, all of them in the same condition as him. Some people might look at his treatment and think that it was degrading or dehumanizing, but it was simply standard protocol. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Emergency care is often insensitive, on many levels, but it’s largely democratic. There are racists f*&ks in all fields, but don’t confuse normal human behaviour under abnormal conditions with racism.
I’m certainly not the ultimate arbiter of what does or does not constitute racism, but I’m pretty comfortable in my assessment of this specific instance.
Today’s Saanich council meeting is turning into a very long one…
You can watch it live here: https://www.saanich.ca/EN/main/local-government/mayor-council/schedule-agendas-minutes.html
Here’s one submission from the 898 pages:
Talk about UVic students “caring” and bringing “vibrancy” to the community.
5000% yes.
Offtopic though and further discussion on this issue unless it relates to housing will be removed.
The “guessing game” doesn’t seem so harmless to me no matter who it is applied to. It seems dehumanizing, unprofessional and a breach of the code of conduct which requires staff to protect the personal dignity of patients. It seems an easy step from this to what has occurred in some hospitals which is indigenous folks being turned away from ER or not treated appropriately on the assumption that they are intoxicated.
Among the provinces, the rate of Indigenous homicide victims was highest in Manitoba in 2018 (16.02 per 100,000 Indigenous population), followed by Saskatchewan (11.2) and Alberta (10.3)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2019001/article/00016-eng.htm
My original comment related to Colten Boushie and his murder not being a terrible coincidence in the province of Saskatchewan.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/10/09/oct-9th-market-update/#comment-50292
Sure, and the bridge game in Duncan is just counting people on a bridge.
“There’s a reason this could have only happen in Saskatchewan, right Introvert?”
As someone who has frequently played the BAC ( blood alcohol content) guessing game in the ER, I’m pretty confident saying that while there is certainly racism baked into the health care system, this is not an example of it. Every patient that presents in the ER as blind drunk is subject to the same speculation. Staff may “bet” on the BAC results, but no money changes hands. It’s just swagger, a display of one’s skill in interpreting level of consciousness and grasp of pharmacology.
There are lots of Polaroid photos in private collections that should be questioned, but those people are fortunate to be protected by the fact that digital technology didn’t exist while they were behaving badly.
So long as all the patients receive medically appropriate care in a timely fashion, it’s just more politically correct witch hunting.
Well the sales forecast I figured was BS as soon as I read the report. A conversation with a CMHC economist confirmed my views on that.
Prices perhaps I’m being premature but I wasn’t that bearish on detached prices to start with and recent data has brought me even further from that. Could all change again of course, just my thoughts based on current conditions
To be honest, I’m surprised that this is your reaction to a 2-3 day sales spike.
It’s great to see the recent numbers and activity. I hope it continues, but it’s still early days.
CMHC price prediction is for the bottom in prices sometime in first half of 2021. That gives them 12 months from now to hit that. Canada will be different in a year, depending on what happens with the virus. If there is a vaccine or solid treatment by then, you may be right, and the good times will keep on rollin’.
But I do “see how you get a 9-18% price decline”, in a “worst case scenario” . The pandemic continues with no treatments or vaccines, CERB is removed, EI has run out, unemployment continues (~25%), taxes rise, rental non-payments become evictions, GDP stays down 10% (depression), deferrals expire and turn into foreclosures etc. and banks tighten lending standards and raise mortgage rates to stem losses. If that still doesn’t scare you, I’ll add your own warnings about social unrest… “LeoS: Don’t underestimate the societal unrest that will come from this“.
Unless you think house prices would survive that year of economic collapse, I wouldn’t laugh off those CMHC predictions.
There’s a reason this could have only happen in Saskatchewan, right Introvert?
It is one of my fundamental factors I wrote about three weeks ago.
everything else that attempts to keep prices in check is just lip stick in imo.
It has been enforced though. There was a house on Haultain in the mid 2000s, and there was a more recent one near UVic (https://www.martlet.ca/saanich-housing-bylaw-still-a-concern-nearly-one-year-after-promises-to-re-evaluate/) , which is why this has come to the forefront now.
Recent surge is from detached but condos have recovered last year’s sales numbers as well.
Up until they relaxed the restrictions on borrowing to build housing it wasn’t much of an option. Now housing is under construction.
I’m about ready to call the CMHC forecast 100% off base. Sales for sure will be wildly incorrect, but even on prices I don’t see how you get a 9-18% price decline with this level of activity. I don’t see any price declines for detached anymore and if the condo market stays weak that will just push overall prices upward due to mix changes. Cheap money strikes again and kicks the can down the road. Bad for long term economic health I think.
It can be a real problem when you end up with a half dozen or more people turning the house next door into a flop house because some landlord wants to get rich playing slum lord. At times a few extra people are not a problem and nobody complains and it is not enforced. But in cases where it is a problem it is important to have something to enforce.
284 + ~233 this week + 250 the next? + 80 Monday Tuesday = Nearly 850.
My article about there being two different markets in Victoria may be out of date soon. I’m sure condos will stay weaker than detached, but I’m beginning to think this level of activity may not stay constrained to the detached market.
I read several dozen of these letters. Naturally, post-secondary students universally support the occupancy increase, and homeowners are divided on the issue.
Maybe students should collectively sue UVic for continuing to increase enrollment far beyond the university’s ability to house students on campus.
That’s the thing, it’s likely not enforced at all. Which makes the claim that it will destroy the area even more ridiculous
How is this enforced? Can’t you just say you are in a common law relationship cutting the number in half right away?
I had something similar happen to a client that had a roomate in a building that didn’t allow roomates/boarders…he just said they were in a gay common law relationship. End of story, strata couldn’t do anything.
Remember in 2013 BC decided they would dictate relationships for us….if you live with someone for two years you are basically married whether you wanted that or not so it’s not like anyone can ask you for any paperwork as government has decided there is no paperwork required.
A house with large numbers of unrelated people is traditionally known as “rooming house”, or less charitably a “flophouse”. It’s a commercial venture and it’s the job of local government to decide which commercial ventures are allowed where.
I believe that would only be the case with a live, attenuated vaccine, but IANAVaccineExpert. Also multiple doses might provide a more lasting immunity.
That also means that a vaccine won’t last more than a few months. The antibodies created by catching the virus are the same antibodies created by the vaccine generated immune response.
53 sales today…..at this pace we will easily clear 740 sales from last year.
898 pages of input on Saanich’s plan to up the limit of unrelated occupants allowed in one house from 4 to 6. https://twitter.com/ColinPlant2018/status/1274185553584353280?s=20
898 pages!! Nevermind 4 or 6 people, who the heck decided that local government has the authority to dictate the relationship status of who lives in a house?
$150k/yr new $100k/yr? $100k/yr new $70k/yr? I get your point but a little high/extreme imo.
How shitty does it feel to be British or Swedish reading that article.
So far I have yet to meet anyone who’s had covid or has lost their job because of it. Life is going great, the future is so bright I gotta wear shades.
In other news $150k/yr is the new $100k/yr and $100k/yr is the new $70k/yr…
You keep saying that, but he could have posted the same graph in April and said the same thing.
I don’t think anyone is expecting a massive drop in price overnight.
In other news, United States looks like they’ll have their first day w/ over 30 thousand cases since May 1st. Worldwide we’re at 164 thousand cases today (so far).
Leo, like I said before your data and graphs are killing the narrative of some folks on the forum 😉
By reversal specifically I meant the Sales to List ratio which has gone from substantially under last year to over in a matter of days. Nutso.
Yes, MOI really down – that is a big reversal. Amazing!
Thanks Leo – must have been just places within my parameters that bumped up. Cheers.
Actually new listings seem to have stalled out while sales kept increasing. Total market reversal in the last week.
Check out the chart with sales up to Monday. Not shown on this chart but instantaneous S/L now above this point last year.
Reading lots of news these days trying to understand how governments will pay for the Billions in handouts, not just in Canada but worldwide; without going bankrupt or without a major devaluation.
It’s really clear that the viral pandemic will be followed by an economic pandemic.
Incomes are higher in Edmonton and Ottawa and RE there is far cheaper. They are both much bigger than Victoria as well. Vancouver is a good deal more expensive than Victoria and it’s not a government town and has lower incomes overall.
Victoria is expensive because BC is expensive.
I agree. It is a society built on paper at this point rather than production. That is why covid hasn’t had a big impact on real estate in Victoria. Paper pushers still making $.
I will say despite the lack of societal importance of my job that as of this morning I have to compete with 1,371 other realtors for business. The “strategic real estate planner” at city hall does not compete with anyone.
Great, so we should have said “We’re literally the only buyer who would place a premium over $MARKET_VALUE. Here’s $MARKET_VALUE + $500k.”
City achieves its (dubious) aim and gets its (dubious) value, developers get a good payout.
You’re right, there are a lot of realtors.
I want a job in excess of $150k/year where I sit around and suggest paying assessment value or higher for land with taxpayer $.
Why are real estate prices in Victoria so high? Lots of people making 100-200k in positions where if they were cancelled tomorrow we wouldn’t notice a difference in society.
Okay I am done for today 🙂
Just wait for the build-out. I watch the council meetings online all the time. These people can barely hold a pencil in terms of their thought process….then combine with unmotivated city staff making huge salaries thinking about flex Fridays. This is going to be worse than the bridge.
I kid you not I saw one of the Kang and Gill partners (probably worth over $50 million) working on site on one of their Johnson Street projects two days ago. You think someone at City Hall is going to be hustling like that? Ha ha….they will be getting ripped off by a private contractor on traffic control, or paying union staff overtime. I can’t wait for the the s***show. They’ve already shown they can prepapred to overpay by millions for land.
CITY SHOULD NOT BE PLAYING DEVELOPER WITH OUR TAX $ we aren’t Vienna (city idiot Isitt likes to reference in his affordable housing arguments).
In any other country I would immediately assume corruption with a purchase like this; however, in this case it is just plain stupidity.
I don’t even know why I am complaining. We just sold one of our new construction homes to an individual whose property got bought out by a muncipality that paid way above market.
It just bugs me that the city is paying some over $150,000 per year in their “strategic real estate divison” to overpay on a property by at least $3 million. Wtf.
Thought that was obvious.
Hey Marko, got the Capital on this story. Unfortunately despite several people they spoke to saying it was a great deal for the developers no one wanted to go on record about it to avoid souring their relationship with the city. https://www.capnews.ca/news/why-victoria-paid-10-million-for-a-property-that-cost-3-7-million-in-2016
Not really addressed in the article but I think the main reason why they paid so much more than the free market value was just the mismatched priorities for a private buyer vs the city. For any private buyer the location is a net negative and will drop the value. For the city it’s a net positive because affordable housing would be right accross the street from homeless services. Also think about community approval, likely a better chance to get approval there where it could improve the area than anywhere else in the city.
Coronavirus will hasten ‘peak oil’ by three years, says research firm
https://www.ft.com/content/37551636-4d8e-4334-a7b0-64a474ba055e
Context here…..land value and on market for 200 days. You aren’t going to get this kind of cut off existing asking on a non-land value only property.
You’ll get it off original asking, but not on existing.
“Wonder if there are any deals to be had in the condo market now.”
I haven’t seen many deals either; asking and sold prices are pretty solid. But I think there are a few desperate sellers. Unit 219 at 365 Waterfront, for example is a steal at $699k compared to historical pricing in that building.
…but you can! The salary for a Band 3 (Director) position in the provincial government can start as low as 76K.
Caveat emptor, with minimum wage at 15 bucks an hour I don’t think u can get away with paying a government director any less than 100k. If you think about it, that’s just approx 3X that of the cashier at Walmart or McDonald’s…
Thanks leo, 509-1030 Yates was interesting as that was a two story south facing penthouse in a 2004 building in an area that is slated for major development. From a long term perspective it looked like a decent investment.
One of the side effects of stupidly high CEO pay in the private sector has been upward pressure on “CEOs” in the public sector. That said 165K for running an organization the size of GVPL actually doesn’t seem wildly high. Consider that two bit directors in the core BC public service are making 100K for managing a handful of staff plus budgets that are most likely a small fraction of GVPL.
509-1030 Yates. Sold full price, $595k.
901-760 Johnson. Expired listing which is interesting because it was vacant and marketed as STVR.
Too early for deals in condos I think. I think it will be harder hit in the fall but who knows. The lure of ultra-cheap money may be enough to heat it up again.
Well introvert, no need to be passive agressive on a internet forum lol, just spit it out. I can’t speak to anything on what u said about the library ceo other than travel adds up as far as expenses go (flights and hotel etc.), My travel expenses for work were around 25k last year I think and that’s just mainly going to Vancouver with a couple of east coast and international trips. I would imagine the library ceo prob went to go see a bunch of libraries elsewhere to see how others are operating and also went to some conferences.
As to what she does, well she is ultimately responsible for ensuring that the gvpl is a going concern.
Yeah, and a better reopening plan would be nice.
If school districts could mobilize every single school in the entire province to reopen on June 1st, with dozens of new safety protocols in place, I’m not sure why the bosses at the library are finding this so difficult.
Also, I kind of wonder what the CEO of a public library does every day, and I question whether we’re getting good bang for the buck in terms of that cushy salary. Moreover, $9K worth of expenses is a lot of “working” lunches and pointless travel.
What point are you trying to make introvert? Are you trying to say that someone making 165k a year should be able to provide a better explanation?
What did 509-1030 Yates and that unit 901 in the Juliet sell for? Wonder if there are any deals to be had in the condo market now.
Digging into the GVPL’s financials, like normal people do…
Fiscal year 2018:
CEO Maureen Sawa: $165,541 income; $8,947 claimed expenses.
Heard her on the radio yesterday justifying the library’s strange and slow reopening plan with, “Well, you know, we sure have a lot of library users in Victoria, so it’s complicated.”
https://www.gvpl.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GVPL-SOFI-2018.pdf
Being the reserve currency just means they can get away with printing more money before it starts affecting the value of their dollar. There is more demand for it and there is more of it in circulation. So if they print a similar percentage of their GDP vs a country like Canada it has less impact on supply and demand.
However if the US goes on an infinite printing spree at some point they will end up adding more money than there is demand and it will effect the value. This in turn would make other look to switch what they are holding their reserves in.
Leo looks like a lot of houses came on the market today – whats the MOI now?
Sometimes you just gotta ask.
4931 Lochside Dr.
Ask $2,500,000
SOLD $1,955,000
Patrick’s correct. The USA has since the 60’s had the special power of being the world’s reserve currency, which allows it to print basically whatever it needs to finance its debt. Those days may be numbered however – as a special note to anyone invested in foreign currencies, this is a good read:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-08/a-crash-in-the-dollar-is-coming?srnd=opinion&sref=ZtdQlmKR
Caused me to think twice about my US dollar holdings.
On a Covid note, I finally know someone who has tested positive for Covid (he lives out of the province). He is just under 50 with no health problems, and his case is considered mild by the doctor. He has described to me that it feels anything but mild though – a debilitating high fever that has lasted days and waking up short of breath to the point of needing to go to the hospital. This not something you want to catch. We need to stay vigilant out there.
My understanding is that any country that controls its own currency can theoretically print enough money to pay off its debts, but there would be many negative consequences.
He was referring specifically to the USA, and not any country (like Zimbabwe) printing money. The US has a special status as reserve currency, and to a lesser extent Japan and the EU. Unfortunately Canada is considered a petro-currency country, and doesn’t have the status of those reserve currencies.
Well yah, it could collapse the currency, but that’s no small thing. . Let me know if you find many countries that have done well with a collapsed currency. It’s nothing but bad news, As soon as the currency starts to fall “too much”, the BOC raises interest rates to support the currency, crushing house prices for example.
Yup.
As former Fed chair Alan Greenspan once noted, “The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.”
If the government was borrowing in a currency they don’t control it could be bad. However, if these debts are all in Canadian dollars, technically Canada could just print the money to pay off these debts. Technically this could collapse the currency which would hurt Canada’s future ability to borrow cheaply in Canadian dollars.
Being in debt to foreigners in this case would actually be preferable, since inflating the debt away would not impact locals as much. Savers (including pensions) would be hurt so I am not saying inflating away the debt is a good thing.
I just don’t think it is as dire as you are making it out to be.
Being dependant on foreigners to finance debt can limit options for countries in the long run. The fact that foreigners buy our bonds is not inherently bad.
That’s disappointing AF.
Leo S,
Where is this graph coming from? I was hoping to check out other mainland cities
Langford nearly twice as rainy as downtown
As it turn out the darling S&P/TSX 60 Fossil Fuel Free Index is chock full of Energy/Fossil Fuel companies.
S&P/TSX 60 Fossil Fuel Free Index — https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=%5ETXFF
List of Fossil Fuel Companies:
Canadian National Railway Company (petroleum and chemicals (21%), coal (4%))
Enbridge Inc.
TC Energy Corporation ( energy products (like crude and frac sand), chemicals, and plastics (20%) coal (9%))
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.(Revenue from external customers fall mainly into three categories: merchandise and services, road transportation fuel, and other.)
Fortis Inc.
Pembina Pipeline Corporation
Emera Incorporated
Inter Pipeline Ltd.
There is the perception by some that somehow Canadians are paying for all these govt support programs, like CERB. Or that we are borrowing the money from ourselves to do it, which isn’t so bad, because the money stays circulating in the country.
Problem is, so far that isn’t true. From statsCan latest data, the federal govt Is borrowing record amounts from foreigners (not Canadians) to pay for it. Of course we eventually pay for it one way or the other, but historically being indebted to foreign nations is the worst type of debt for a country.
A glimpse into who is paying for all this out-of-control Canada govt deficit spending….foreigners!
Canada Govt borrowed $26 billion in April 2020 from foreigners.. a record!. So for just that one month, future generations of Canadian taxpayers need to come up with $26bn + interest to pay back these foreigners. That’s about $1,000 borrowed from foreigners per Canadian adult, just for that one month. This is your future tax dollars that won’t even stay in the country, let alone pay for health care or important social programs. These inflows from foreign money are temporarily propping up our economy, but have to be repaid.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/foreigners-are-buying-up-canadian-debt-at-a-record-pace?__vfz=medium%3Dconversations_top_pages
“ Investors from outside the country bought a net $49 billion (US$36 billion) of Canadian securities in April, the largest monthly purchases from abroad on record, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday. That [foreign lending to Canada] included $15.8 billion in federal government bonds, as well as $10.2 billion [total $26bn] in federal government money market instruments such as treasury bills, both record inflows”
So it appears that the Victoria market is quite active now. Seeing many more sold signs and many more deals pending. To your point Leo, you’d no longer be surprised if prices were up 12 months from now. How sustainable do you feel this market activity is? And are the fall/winter months going to present much more activity than in normal years. Watching closely myself.
Five numbers that will douse any high hopes you may have for the housing market
21.67% of the 60 largest companies/economy in Canada are fossil fuel companies.
S&P/TSX 60 — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P/TSX_60
“The S&P/TSX 60 Index is a stock market index of 60 large companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Maintained by the Canadian S&P Index Committee, a unit of Standard & Poor’s, it exposes the investor to ten industry sectors.”
https://www.policynote.ca/divest-industry-influence/
I poked around for the Fossil Fuel Free Indexs and it doesn’t look as if they are any better than other indexes and may be even less desirable than some indexes.
I would no longer be surprised if detached prices are up 12 months from now. Nuts out there.
Here’s the report. https://royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com/v/canadas-housing-market-woke-up-in-may-report
“Vancouver and other BC markets, for example, could see buyers calling the shots as early as this summer. It could take a little longer in Ontario, Quebec and parts of the Atlantic Provinces. Buyers already rule in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.”
Seems like Vancouver is going much the same way as Victoria though. Detached market is going crazy. Condos may be in buyers market territory by the fall though.
From https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-peaked-says-canadas-largest-bank-revises-forecast-lower/
Why has UBC divested from fossil fuels but UVic has not? The high cost of industry influence
https://www.policynote.ca/divest-industry-influence/
Um, in 1990 the population in Victoria was 281,614. Today, it’s 385,999. On a per capita basis, we’re replicating 1990 numbers.
Barrister, FWIW: Oak Bay average SFD price 2019 – $1,435,923, down 12.4% yoy from 2018 – $1,639,831
What kind of expert are you anyway?
This is bullshit, I want my money back.
That cycle of corruption between the trades and insurance companies continues, the policy holders always foot the bill. To become an approved contractor for insurance is quite the ordeal I hear so maybe that’s how they justify the added costs.
I wonder how Eby’s body shop accountability is going these days because a $6K repair bill after I was rear ended a couple years back is just not sustainable. I even had to go back to the shop once because my liftgate wasn’t closing properly.
I noticed the last few sales of SFH in Oak Bay seem to be at a really high price. Not scientific but I am not getting the feeling that Oak Bay SFH are actually slipping in price.
A number of years ago, after a different severe hail storm, my in-laws had to replace their roof due to shingles damage, just like thousands of other folks in the city. They made an insurance claim and paid the deductible and got their roof replaced, no problem. But when they looked at the paperwork they noticed that the roofers charged the insurance company an incredible amount to do the job — WAY more than it would have cost had you just called up a roofer and paid out of pocket to replace your old roof.
Not sure, sorry.
This, rates are still fairly reasonable for experienced drivers, locally anyways.
The AB insurance companies love it when a mayor comes forward with this type of assessment. It just means more money for them, not immediately but always in the long run.
If you have experienced or are anticipating a rate increase recently check out the article below.
https://auto-blog.online/2020/06/17/how-to-lower-auto-insurance-premiums/
Does that include the doctor’s office?
Correction:
The animal hospital/Maria’s Deli strip mall is called “Three Corners Centre.”
The strip mall right beside Torquay Village (which has Starbucks and Domino’s, etc.) is called “Feltham Centre” and it includes Hot House Pizza, 7-11, and a couple more shops.
Crucial information for all of us to know 😉
It’s not, end of 2007 was when it opened if I remember correctly.
It basically is a pedestrian zone. It and Uvic are 2 places where people just seem to walk into traffic w/out looking and the cars stop around them. Which commercial zone do you like walking through Leo? As a resident, it was very easy to just go down and shop daily as opposed to storing anything in your house. It was easy to do that for grocery in Tuscany Village or liquor, but I wouldn’t really go anywhere else on those trips, nor would I ever just go for a walk through Tuscany on the way to somewhere else, I’d walk away from Tuscany every single time.
I don’t know what the developers were thinking with Tuscany Village. And it’s not even that old, I don’t think.
The place is a concrete jungle. It’s visually unappealing. It’s hot as hell in the summer due to all that pavement radiating heat. And it’s car-centric but simultaneously not enjoyable to park in.
Fully agree.
True.
Yeah, and the strip mall across Shelbourne from there, the one with Maria’s Deli, also has a name — Feltham Centre, maybe? It also has a dentist, the tiniest pharmacy in the world, and an animal hospital, to name a few.
Thanks, Leo.
They actually do that four times each summer for monthly market days. Very nice, but not sure about this year though.
Speaking of insurance, Calgary’s mayor said of the city’s recent hail storm: “I would be very shocked if this isn’t a top-five insurable cost event in the history of Canada.”
Early estimates of the damage are in the $1-billion range.
It generated the largest hail on record for Calgary — up to 61 mm in diameter.
Residents said vehicles parked on the street looked like they were “strafed with gunfire.”
The plural of anecdote is…
40-50% does indeed sound substantial until you realize that insurance is only a small part of what makes up your condo fees.
In my case, the strata insurance premium increase of 44% results in an increase $29 per month to my condo fees. Big deal.
I’ve lived in both areas oddly, and the main difference is one is set up for cars and one isn’t.
You have to cross parking lots to get to the majority of these places, where as oak bay ave you might have to cross 2 lanes of traffic.
Also, no bakery, bookstore or butcher in GH.
and TIL that the strip mall at shellbourne and feltham has a name hahaha.
edit: just noticed that Gonzales had already addressed this
I’ve upped the edit time to 30 min.
I’d like to see details on results by region once the report is out. But it sounded like 40% increase was the BC average, with Vancouver going up an average 50%. That’s pretty substantial.
As for Oak Bay, I don’t find it nice to walk through. Would be a great if the street was shut down though and it was a pedestrian zone.
The whole insurance “crisis” is totally overblown, at least locally.
My condo fees went up $29/month due to the strata insurance premium increase (ours renewed at the end of March) and my personal insurance went up $4/month to cover the larger strata deductible of $50k.
I don’t know what “UBI” is, but CERB is taxable just like EI. Could you expand a bit.
The reason why walking in Oak Bay Village is nicer than along Shelbourne Valley is because you’re not having to walk through parking lots and gas stations to get to entrances of shops and services.
The actual CERB scandal is that political parties, foreign students, and offshore tax scofflaws are getting money while homeless/disabled/unemployed/under-employed Canadians get little or nothing.
Should have been a taxable UBI. Easier to implement, no enforcement required (so cheaper), money quickly into the economy, nobody falls through the cracks.
For those who are confused, after a few minutes I pulled the post you’re responding to because I wanted to add more nuance but didn’t have time.
I agree that Tuscany Village is not nice. Nor is University Heights right now. Mt. Doug Market and Torquay Village are OK, and across Shelbourne is another small area with shops including Maria’s Deli. Gordon Head Rec Centre is also right there. And there’s Fairway Market and the Nellie McClung library at Cedar Hill Rd and McKenzie.
All this to say that if you live in the southern part of GH, on either side nearish Shelbourne, you’re in an extremely walkable neighbourhood, close to as many amenities (or more) than that of Oak Bay Ave. However, Oak Bay Ave is way, way nicer.
NOTE: Of the 1,409 deaths added today in in Maharashtra, 81 represent the actual daily increase, while 1,328 deaths (862 from Mumbai and the remaining 466 from across the state) actually occurred in March and April but were added only today after clearance from the state’s death audit committee tasked with taking the final call on the cause of deaths.
So, not actually 2000 deaths in India yesterday.
The recent surge in Covid cases is very worrisome. India is now spiking, with over 2000 deaths yesterday, and the US numbers are exploding in several new areas: Texas, California, Arizona, etc. I had hoped for some sort of gradual return to normalcy but instead we will remain in a state of global emergency.
Teranet is out – nothing crazy but Victoria was one of the only ones down on the list at -0.5%.
June 17, 2020
In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.1% from the previous month, a rise equal to the average for May over the last 10 years. Leading that countrywide average were the metropolitan markets of Ottawa-Gatineau (2.2%), Toronto (2.1%), Halifax (1.8%) and Hamilton (1.6%). Advances lagging the countrywide average were reported for Edmonton (0.9%), Montreal (0.7%), Winnipeg (0.7%) and Quebec City (0.6%). The index for Vancouver was flat on the month. Calgary (−0.2%) and Victoria (−0.5%) were down from the previous month.
No end in sight to swelling B.C. condo insurance premiums, study finds
You mean prices might go down? Can’t have that can we. Of course that would be the rational response to an increase in insurance premiums or other property expenses.
I see the City is permitting camping without taking tents down daily in Beacon Hill Park – up to 90 people now. That can’t end well.
The test is not “interaction”. The test is care for and this is limited to a person you care for or live with and upon audit medical documentation is required of a high risk condition. Seems reasonable.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/people-high-risk-for-severe-illness-covid-19.html
Not killed yet. Pent up demand would actually mean sales above and beyond normal.
Can it really last w/out immigrants and move up buyers?
It’s interesting that the bump in sales is 2 weeks or so after the bump in listings.
Anecdotal : a friend of mine has 2 high school kids and apparently a bunch of their friends that worked at grocery stores part-time are now receiving CERB. All they need to do is claim that one of their household members is high risk and that is why they are not able to work. They are receiving more collecting CERB than when they were working. There is no way that CRA will be able to catch these. How could CRA prove that they don’t have a vulnerable person that they interact with and are trying to protect?
I am not too concerned about poor people collecting CERB, but I am a bit concerned about 15 year olds collecting $2000 a month while playing video games.
My estimate of employment was down 37,000 at peak in Victoria. So I would say at least that many, but of course as some people get their jobs back others will be laid off so total number applying to CERB will be higher, perhaps substantially higher.
For some perspective on CERB, since Victoria is 1% of Canada’s population, our 1% of the 8 million on CERB would be 80,000 Victoria people on CERB. I needed to double check that math, but that huge number is right. That’s 40% of our 200k workforce, but we are told that our unemployment is about 15%. Now we may be better off than other cities so our CERB number may be a little lower, but that still shows the incredible levels we are talking about.
Leo, your graphs and data are literally killing James Soper’s narrative!!
I don’t think many people are and they should be pretty easy to catch for the CRA. Most people getting CERB illegitimately are probably desperate/poor people. Not ideal, but ohwell. Maybe some will use it to get themselves out of poverty.
That’s about how many were effectively unemployed so not that far off. However the 8M is not current CERB recipients, but total cumulative. Many of those are not accessing it any longer.
Everyone’s willing to pay for those suffering. But are you also “happy to pay a few bucks” to well-off people scamming the system to get CERB too, because of absent controls on its distribution. Do you believe 8 million on CERB are “suffering”, that’s 35% of the workforce. You’ve posted graphs with much less unemployment than that, how do you reconcile those numbers, and is “CERB abuse” part of that story?
I’m not overly concerned. Little difference in job search activity between those that were making less than $2000/month before COVID vs those making more.
https://twitter.com/mikalskuterud/status/1272608563119169536?s=20
Happy to. I have been impacted not at all while many have had their lives literally unravel, will be losing their homes, etc. I’m happy to pay a few bucks more in taxes to support those who are suffering through this.
Heres what Trudeau said about that (See link). Does that look like it’s going to be harder to claim to you?
Checking off “ I am looking for work” seems a low bar to clear to me. Remember, Canadians are going to be paying for this out-of-control spending spree for a generation, with higher taxes and austerity,
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cerb-extended-eight-weeks-152840396.html
“So, if you’ve been getting the CERB and you still can’t work because you are unable to find a job or it’s just not possible, you will keep getting that $2,000 a month,” said Trudeau during his daily COVID-19 update. The extension doesn’t come with further restrictions, but applicants will be asked to sign an attestation that they are looking for work.
LOL. Well there you have it folks, pandemic is over. Precisely 90 days for a recovery in sales. Expect higher than last year new listings and sales as we process the pent up supply and demand.
I think they said there would be new conditions attached to the extended CERB. May be harder to claim.
If 1/2 restaurants were closed completely, -40% in one and -100% in the other would average to -70%.
If you look at open table data, they also tell you what % of restaurants are even open compared to normal. And it’s only 45% of them are open at all in Vancouver, so even if those were all 100% full, overall would be -55%.
IMO, Open table data is going to be very accurate, it is actual Real world numbers of all walkins and reservations, averaged through all restaurants. It would be skewed towards higher end restaurants tha5 take reservations, Some days in Vancouver are looking better than =80%, and are only -65%.
In any event, it’s great to see restaurants open again, and the numbers are improving quickly. Australia numbers on the open table are only down 20% from normal, and that’s happened in two weeks,
Patrick i don’t know how accurate the open table data is, I was in Vancouver last weekend and did the ol drink and eat tour in coal harbour, yaletown and gas town. It definitely wasn’t -80% compared to last year. I would say maybe -40% ish due to the capacity restrictions.
Here’s why CERB is stupid at this time, when things are opening up.
E.g. a $20/hr worker.
Option 1 : Stay on CERB: make $3,000/month…. work 12 hours per week – 50 for the month, make $1,000 per month + $2000 free CERB.
Option 2: Go off CERB – make $3,000/month…. work 37 hours per week 150 for the month (and no CERB)
What would you choose for the summer, in an entry level job…. 12 hours work per week on CERB or 37 hours work per week off CERB?
Vancouver restaurants still only 18% % of last year…
“ Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations” down 82% for Vancouver June 15.
https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
Better than other cities like Seattle, Toronto, Montreal that are way less than 10% of last year.
“Wonder who will still be laid off when July rolls around…”
What happens when the wage subsidy runs out in August though? Gotta be some places that shut down for good after that.
Lol Leo, I guess its probably close to 80% now. The empress is back in business next week I believe? Wonder who will still be laid off when July rolls around…
No great trick, it was already at 50% employment in May, up from the low of 43% in April.
BC Accommodation and food services employment
Feb 2020: 190,100
May 2020: 95,400
And yet somehow going to Oak Bay ave is nice, but going to tuscany village is not.
Maybe it’s the 2.5 gas stations? or the 4 lane roads in either direction?
“What’s it going to be mid-October?”
Second wave COVID-19 hits, average SFH in Oak Bay falls to $600k but bears don’t buy because they either still can’t afford it or are holding out for a better deal.
“I used Earls as barometer for the hospitality sector recovery and boy looks like I am right! Want me to find the post where I said by mid June the restaurant sector would be back to at least 50% employment?”
If it would improve your self-worth, go for it.
What’s it going to be mid-October?
“I think he was the guy using traffic at a generic downtown chain restaurant as a barometer for recovery”
I used Earls as barometer for the hospitality sector recovery and boy looks like I am right! Want me to find the post where I said by mid June the restaurant sector would be back to at least 50% employment?
“Wasn’t that you?”
I think he was the guy using traffic at a generic downtown chain restaurant as a barometer for recovery.
Wasn’t that you?
Yes. Relatively rare though. 81 over ask sales in the last few weeks, only 5 sold for under the original asking price (not accounting for re-lists)
No one is high fiving, just curious to see if the bears are still full on doom and gloom that’s all.
Also, what happened to the guy who rides his bike downtown and comments on the empty spots at the view street parkade and associates that with downtown being dead without knowing most of those spots belong to monthly pass holders whom are all working from home currently.
If a listing had a downward price change but then sold over the new asking price (but less than the original), does that still count as a sale over asking?
Maybe a tad early for the family to start high-fiving when the patient is still in ICU on multiple forms of pain killer and life support.
From “my reality check” 62 properties down in asking price so far this month and no price increases.
The core is desirable and does appreciate more in real dollars because prices are higher as a starting point and appreciation compounds. The problem is that it is not affordable to many who want a SFH.
These small lot SFHs in Langford have the affordability attraction which makes them desirable now and going forward imo given that condo/townhouse alternatives.
I’m not a fan of Langford’s development pattern/style and I don’t want to live there, but it is more than a suburb of Victoria. Many more people work and live in Langford and don’t commute to Victoria and it is growing. Approximately 20% of government employees live in the Westshore and there is an 11,000 square foot office space being developed as a pilot project for employees who live there. The Westshore is very welcoming for all sorts of development and they have the space for it- give it another ten years.
I don’t think this matches any urban planning definitions? Independent community is also not really a defined term. Seems like the distinction is between suburb, bedroom community or satellite city? Langford is self-defined as an urban city. It seems to better fit the definition of a satellite city rather than suburb or bedroom community as it:
predated Victoria’s suburban expansion
is at least partially independent from Victoria economically and socially
is physically separated from the City of Victoria by more rural areas of the Westshore
has its own independent urbanized area
has its own bedroom communities in the Westshore
has its own government
https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmXoypizjW3WknFiJnKLwHCnL72vedxjQkDDP1mXWo6uco/wiki/Satellite_city.html
8 more weeks of CERB, extending it to August 29th.
When I think of the core neighbourhoods I think of City of Victoria neighbourhoods and not Saanich neighbourhoods.
Full respect for Buffet (he recommends indexing by the way) but his track record hasn’t been great lately. People have been betting Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy for a decade and it has cost them a fortune. Big risky play and I’m not about to invest (sold my one TSLA share when it doubled), but almost all vehicles will electrify in the coming decade and companies positioned to lead in that space will do well. VW may be a safer play though, they are going hard on electrification too.
Perhaps I’m wrong, but the Oracle of Omaha seems to think Tesla is overvalued. BRK portfolio is comprised of 23.84% AAPL that also own 25% stake in BYD (largest electric car company in China). And, Toyota recently sold all of its TSLA shares and partner up with BYD after it break off relationship with Tesla.
Google “Regulator finds condo insurance market in BC is unhealthy”
There’s little to no walkability in the core neighbourhoods of Cordova Bay & Gordon Head.
Even more dead since they housed the homeless.
“Holy crap.
All this pent up demand is going to get us to * checks notes * about 100 sales less than last year.”
Yup, and downtown is still dead 😉
And on the other hand we keep hearing on this board how desirable the core is and how it should attract a premium. Can’t have it both ways.
Independent community to me means a self-contained job market. It’s pretty evident that Langford doesn’t have that. Nor does it have the kind of walkability and atmosphere that you get in core neighbourhoods.
I’m not trying to bash the burbs for what they are, I live in one myself. But don’t pretend they are something they’re not.
I just checked the YVR pulse site and it has been a while since I saw 13 price reductions in one day.
I’ve never invested in Tesla but I’ve had one for five years and literally no one is even close at this point and time. There was a 10% chance I might stop by Audi one day to take a look at the E-tron but then Tesla puts the Model Y into production and what’s the point. Substantially cheaper, substantially longer range, charging network, better features and my current 5 year old one has been the most reliable and least expensive car to maintain that I’ve ever owned and I had pretty much all Acura/Honda products for 10 years so that is saying something.
Stock might be overvalued but I don’t think the competition is even remotely close to getting people through the door, let alone taking actual sales from Tesla.
Small lots are more affordable like condos are but you don’t have a strata or other shared ownership and wall hassles. The “burbs” aren’t really that any more. Langford is now an independent community with its own infrastructure and services and an extremely fast pace of growth and demand for housing.
The question is whether small properties will appreciate in value (sale or rental) at a similar rate to other homes. I’d guess they would given their affordability vs. alternatives, although the land being smaller may reduce the overall appreciation rate a bit like it can with condos.
25 SFH, 16 condos
Holy crap.
All this pent up demand is going to get us to * checks notes * about 100 sales less than last year.
”Who knows, could even crack 700″
Lets see what the bears have to say about this….
Tesla is highly volatile and may well be quite overvalued right now, but they’re the leaders in electrification which the entire industry is moving towards rapidly. Price reflects expectation for future growth.
Hertz is a bankrupt company that has used temporary mania by retail investors to try to cash in on the ignorance. Quite a difference.
Sure but the question as always is how much will it sell or rent for compared to other properties. How attractive is urban density out in the burbs going to be?
Of the 47 sales what was the split between SFH and condos?
I know of at least two older people who have sold their condos and bought SFH in the last few months because of Covid (elevators in a high rise are a real concern). Both bought in Oak Bay. One of them says he lost money on the condo but says it was the best move he ever made.
Same group of people that rush in to buy cannabis, bitcoins, penny, and Tesla stocks that invest in weekly lotteries and take holidays at casinos.
https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/tesla-bigger-than-toyota-complicate
Who woulda thunk, a company that haven’t turn a full year profit since inception market valuation is higher than Toyota, who post a net profit of $18.7 billion per year for the last 6 consecutive years.
Whoops. You’re right I totally miscalculated there and missed a week. Even at current sales rate (159 last week), we would end up at 284 + 159 + 159 + ~ 80 = 680. Who knows, could even crack 700.
With 47 sales today (the most I’ve seen this year) alone I am thinking we are going to hit 650.
For sure, I’m not saying more lot isn’t more expensive, it’s that it doesn’t add proportional utility.
For example we almost bought 1762 Howroyd when we were house hunting. 11,408 sqft lot. Land value assessed at $778,000 or $68/sqft
Two houses down is an 8126 sqft property assessed at $683,000 for the land or $84/sqft. The extra land is worth more, but not proportionately more.
Then the 2980 sqft at 3717 Harriet goes for $119/sqft.
Sorry, disagree. There’s no way that it’s close to 500M that they’re paying extra.
They’re having to go to work during a pandemic without the proper equipment. They are more likely to get it, and they did get it.
There were plenty in Vancouver or in the prison in Kelowna that did. We’re just lucky that it wasn’t worse. You can’t retroactively say “oh it wasn’t as bad as we thought, we’re not going to pay you any more.” It’s not like this is over yet. We’re still going to be needing these people.
Leo – the “yard utility” theory is good for those who don’t garden and view it as a maintenance issue. As an avid gardeners I can confirm that the extra 4000 square feet is something a significant number of people will pay extra for. And land value appreciates while houses depreciate to a point. Larger is probably a better bet in the core for ROI. My thought on the postage stamp lots is that there will continue to be a market for this though. Folks who appreciate more house and less yard for the same price. I don’t think you’ll lose out on appreciation overall as Langford develops for the next 20 years. After that there may be a small discount – or not – if condos are then the affordable alternative.
I agree James, we shouldn’t be paying out money the Province doesn’t have to a bunch of people who didn’t have any interaction with Covid, are already well paid, with good benefits and had ample PPE. 500M can do a lot of good and buying votes to the BCGEU isn’t a good way to spend it.
Good question. I’m really not sure how to think about the small lot sizes.
There’s likely several factors. We have a) Utility and b) Development value.
The utility I can see in two ways. When we were first house-hunting I was really attracted to the large lots like 10,000+. But once I thought about it more I realized there really isn’t much if any more utility in a 10,000sqft lot vs 6,000. Both are big enough to have a yard for the kids, and it’s not like the 10,000sqft is enough to play baseball, or grow crops or something. So day to day it’s basically just more work to maintain. However with a Langford postage stamp lot you definitely lose some yard utility (for kids and no ability to stick up a shed), and a sense of privacy. That loss of utility should be captured in current selling prices, so I doubt that this will lead to faster future depreciation.
Then there’s the future development value, and that is definitely higher in the bigger lots. Stick two or three standard city lots together and you can already create a few townhouses (if you could ever get the zoning) but with the Langford lots you don’t really have an advantage. Also even without land assemblies, in a 6000+ sqft lot you have the option of building a garden suite in the future.
If we think of appreciation as occurring almost entirely in the land, then the larger lots should appreciate faster since a greater percentage of the total value is in the land. However it’s not like a 5000sqft lot will appreciate at anywhere near twice the rate as a 2500 sqft lot.
It’s not a perfect correlation, but pretty strong. 3 month avg on the percent sold over ask to smooth some noise.
Note also that even when prices are declining, we get about 5% going over ask.
Fixed, sorry didn’t see your previous comment.
Sold prices have been all over the place. I’ve really de-emphasized them because they are 80% noise month to month so it’s easy to come to the wrong conclusion. For example condo medians are down 12% since March but that is basically all because of change in the sales mix. Condo prices aren’t down 12% since March. Average place was still going a couple percent over assessment in May. I do think condo prices will come down eventually though.
But here they are unadulterated anyway.
Sure
At least you got something though in the meantime.
Oh okay. In that case, I absolutely agree that those people should get it.
I doubt this happened much at all. In a market where house prices are dropping you would see almost nothing go over ask, especially if prices are dropping fast.
If we are still seeing a substantial amount of SFH going over ask then that indicates there is still plenty of demand out there. If you know you are the only one bidding/interested a buyer would never offer over ask.
You are right this stat doesn’t say too much about price movements, but it does give an indication of existing demand.
Sure, over-asks can be manipulated by intentionally under-listing, but in practice this doesn’t happen on a scale large enough to shift the overall measure. Over-ask percentage is always up when the market is hot, and down when it is slow.
Did that in the most recent monthly numbers post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/06/01/condos-hit-harder-as-single-family-sales-gain/
Detached selling about 5-6% over assessment (2018 valuations for the most part)
No real change in June to date.
I think both measures are very useful. Percentage over assessment gives you a sense of price trends. Percentage over ask gives you a good sense of what the market is like, and how likely you are to be able to have room to negotiate on listings in general. If 25% of places are selling over ask, you’re not going to get any deals.
Leo S, would it be possible to post a price to assessed value graph for a longer period?
Leo or anyone want to venture a guess what happens to the values of some of these new places out in Langford with lots that are the same sq footage as the house? MLS 427423 for example for 740K – 2400 sq ft house and 2300 sq ft lot (yes you read that right). Or MLS 427445 for 850k with a 2300 home and a 2700 lot. I understand the price is top dollar as the homes are nice and new but what happens in 25 years when your mortgage is done and now you have an older home and want to sell. Once the house loses appeal and you are left with a lot that is 1/3 the size of the lots in the area will your place have depreciated (or appreciate much slower) considerably compared to others? Or will this just be the new norm for all houses? Maybe its because i had the ‘luxury’ of growing up in crappy homes with yards but seems crazy for me to pay that price for a home with almost nothing besides a driveway. I guess on the plus side low lawn maintenance…
Yes but we have to compare current levels to historical ranges for over asks. We could say that it’s not 50% over asks but 23% over ask is still elevated historically
I’ll try that, but it would be nice if we didn’t have to resort to HTML tricks.
Imagine, in the U.S. as the 2008 housing bubble was bursting, some sellers rushing to the exits listing at deep price discounts in a bid to avoid bankruptcy…that still managed to sell over their very low “asking price”. Recall that in some markets in that environment, prices were down 50%. Do you think anybody looked at sales over ask at that time and said, “Blimey! A bunch of sales over asking price — the market is stable!”. We are not in that situation, but my point is, asking prices don’t say anything clear about price/market trends.
PS – on a different note, I would be surprised if the banks/govt allow a steep mortgage deferral cliff this fall, and don’t just somehow prolong some of the deferrals for a longer period.
So this being the case:
” we are right back to just about one in four going for over the asking price. ”
Does this still mean that three out of four, or slightly more, are still going for at or under ask?
True. But they’re not that different than the “professionals” like the banks, currently buying $trillions of EUR/JPY bonds at negative interest rates, with the only hope of profit being reselling them to a greater fool.
What about multiple (3+) line breaks?
Does that make a new p?
edit: no it does not
Patrick, hertz stock did go from a low of around 50 cents to over 5 bucks within 10 days. So there are some retail investors whom made out very well. I mean what else are going to spend your CERB chq on?
And people wonder why retail investors do terribly in the markets. Every new investor thinks they’re smarter than everyone else. People could do with a little less self esteem sometimes
Here’s an example of “where money goes to die”…. and this announcement is made before the sale of this new stock in a bankrupt company.
“ Hertz says it expects stockholders to lose all their money in filing for selling more stock”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/hertz-says-it-expects-stockholders-to-lose-all-their-money-in-filing-for-selling-more-stock.html
I know its not (i work in gov) it was mentioned in my post who it was going to : “it includes health-care staff as well as care aides in nursing homes, people who work in prisons, workers who deliver addictions and mental health services, those who work in homeless shelters, and a wide range of other workers who work with vulnerable people.” I didn’t mean to tie it in with my first sentence.
this is a test
this is a second paragraph
Using a html line break works.
Except it’s not even close to everyone that works for government, it’s literally just for front line workers.
I heard that non-union government will be getting raises this year – nothing official yet though.
Does anyone else have a problem with this – https://bc.ctvnews.ca/front-line-workers-in-b-c-will-get-extra-pay-for-covid-19-1.4946771
“Workers on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic will get extra pay, the B.C. government announced Tuesday.
The lump-sum payment will work out to an extra $4 an hour for a 16-week period starting on March 15, 2020.
It includes health-care staff as well as care aides in nursing homes, people who work in prisons, workers who deliver addictions and mental health services, those who work in homeless shelters, and a wide range of other workers who work with vulnerable people.”
going out to 250,000 workers. If we assume 30 hours for each worker thats like 500M that the taxpayer is paying for. If this was somewhere like New York then i get it but BC came away from this relatively unscathed and I don’t think its reasonable that our taxes are going to pay money to people who 99.5% (est.) had no interactions with Covid patients. Its ridiculous. I have friends who work at the hospital and they are living the sweet lives as the hospital is so slow (no elective surgeries, not many people allowed in etc) and yet they are getting a bonus to do less work. It doesn’t seem right.
Are government workers getting raises this year? The ones outside of the union that is.
Leo, maybe you missed it before, so I’ll ask again. The new blog formatting doesn’t allow separated paragraphs. Can you please fix that? It would improve readability, because a giant wall of text (see LookingAtOptions’ post below as an example) isn’t fun to read.
From eyeballing that chart (link in prior post) it looks like post-CoVid Victoria median condo prices down 4% and detached up 3% YTD. With detached at all-time-high. Is that about right?
LeoS,
Great article. And from your previous chart posted of sold prices, it looks like post CoVid prices have fallen for condos but risen for detached, though we don’t see the exact numbers. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/06/01/condos-hit-harder-as-single-family-sales-gain/ Do you have the numbers handy as to what $ prices and price changes have been post CoVid for detached vs condos?
Asking prices could technically be a moving target in the aggregate, on a graph which includes the start of a pandemic over the past few months.
For all we know, sellers have been listing or adjusting SFH prices in a downwards trend since the start of the pandemic, but just enough so that buyers are still bidding over ask. Of course I’m not saying that is the case, but I’m making the point that it’s possible — the “sales over asking price” graph doesn’t tell us anything about price trends. It is certainly possible sales over asking price trends may just be capturing sellers being very reasonable with adjusting asking prices downwards.
Instead why not compare sales over the last several months against a solid baseline that we know hasn’t changed, like assessed values? We all know that comparing a single sale against assessed value is not useful, but comparing aggregate sales against assessed value is more indicative of trends. Certainly, more useful than trying to untangle the psychology that may or may not be going on with sellers’ list prices over the last few months. Assessed values have stayed put, “sales over assessed value” would be more telling graph about market trends, no?
Anyways, why so much importance on asking prices? Any Tom, Dick,.or Harry can ask any ridiculously high price for a place on a whim (and many do!), and then accept a reasonable lower offer. And, often times, sellers use a strategy of listing at a surprisingly low price on order to attract multiple bids. There doesn’t have to be any rhyme or reason, and they ask more in busy market months and less in cold market months. Assessed value comparsison does not have that problem.
It’s funny that some of the same realtors that will be quick to look down on anybody who references assessed value are the same kind of realtors that will rave here about a single sale that went over asking with multiple bids. For all we know, asking price on a given property they are referencing was deliberately set low to garner a bidding war — and yet a realtor will pump that story while simultaneously turning a nose at somebody looking at assessed price? The truth, as we know, is that on a single sale neither measure tells us much on its own. But at least assessed value is the product of a uniform mathematical methodology, and not the psychological whims of random people/strategies/market conditions.
If you had to choose to ever ONLY ever see sales w.r.t assessed values or sales w.r.t. asking prices, which would you choose to actually understand price trends? Which choice forces you to make assumptions about psychology, and which choice is pure math?
I think it’s pretty clear now that there wasn’t a pent up demand caused by the lockdown.