Jan 7 Market Update
Weekly sales numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| January 2019 |
Jan
2018
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 42 | 431 | |||
| New Listings | 92 | 772 | |||
| Active Listings | 1828 | 1491 | |||
| Sales to New Listings | 46% | 56% | |||
| Sales Projection | — | ||||
| Months of Inventory | 3.5 | ||||
There have only been 3 business days this year so there’s no point in reading too much into the numbers, but the first three days were a bit more active than the same days a year ago. This time last year was when the stress test was starting to come into effect, so I would not be surprised if we manage to exceed last year’s total of 431 sales.
I’ve mentioned a few times that the middle of the single family market was the strongest last year, and the full year’s data bore that out. Mid-priced properties ($700,000 – $1,000,000) sold for closer to original asking price than both the lower end (under $700k) and the high end (over $1M).
We may end the month with around 2000 properties on the market, which will be up substantially from last year but still a far cry from the near 4000 we had in January 2013 (orange line below). For context, back in 2005 we had a similar amount of inventory.
Since that time in 2005 we have also had an approximately 10% growth in population so on a per capita basis we are actually currently lower. It’s a reminder about how slowly the real estate market really moves, and even when you are building back inventory it can take years to get back to more normal levels.
Even with the pucks to the face, I still came out with a degree I can actually use. Hope your school made good use of your parents money… where does U of C put most of their money anyway?
Let’s check their website.
Well done.
The reason the oil sands exists at all is because of daily drivers like you who have supported the projects for decades. You’re the reason that the oil sands tailing ponds exist. You’re the reason they have the money to expand. Oil production worldwide has gone from 42.5 billion barrels per year in 1953 when the original pipeline was built to 82.95 billion barrels today. In that time, Vancouver’s population has gone from 550,000 to 2.4 million, Seattle’s has gone from 1.1 million to 3.8 million and Victoria’s from 100,000 to 360,000. The vast majority of them are the financial backers of expanding the oil sands aka daily drivers. So the reason that the oil is getting into your gas tanks just fine is because they’ve expanded the oil sands.
Did you know that any gas coming into Victoria/Vancouver that isn’t coming on the transmountain pipeline is actually produced in Anacortes? Only 45% of the oil that is used at the 4 refineries in Anacortes is actually from Alberta, the rest of it comes in on… wait for it… tankers!!! and some by rail of course. So guess what… well overdue for a pipeline expansion. Or wait, are you pro-tanker?
Coal produces 35% more CO2 as Natural gas for same amount of energy, as well as a host of other nasty shit, like mercury, arsenic, chromium, nickel, HCl, HF, and SO2 + NOX which causes acid rain. Not to mention that before they started collecting the natural gas that they would just light it up at the well heads, or just off gas it. There is absolutely no doubt that it’s a net win. Look at greenhouse gas emissions in the states since the 1990:
You’ll notice a couple of things, first off, methane hasn’t increased, also ghg emissions have barely increased since 1990, they went up, but have now come back down.
Want to know why???
Because coal use has decreased, and it’s entirely because the use of natural gas has doubled since 2005.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/01/10/not-your-mothers-rental-market
Is this true? FFS. Is this the best candidate the BC Liberals could dig up for a must-win-to-dissolve-the-government byelection?
https://pressprogress.ca/bc-liberal-candidate-quietly-deletes-line-from-website-declaring-he-enjoys-real-estate-speculation/
Edmonton’s climate is awesome, if you were born there and feel the need to sentimentally defend your hometown, or if you took a few too many pucks to head over the course of all those “absolutely gorgeous winter days.”
Here’s the nuance. Since gasoline is getting into our gas tanks just fine, and always has, we don’t need to expand tar sands production or a pipeline to get it here.
So it’s a net win for the planet?
Yeah, no.
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/environmental-impacts-of-natural-gas
This idea that natural gas will be the planet’s saviour was no doubt cooked up by the oil industry in an effort to maintain the status quo (and its corporate profits) a decade or two longer.
Again, massive difference between Edmonton and here because of humidity. -13C is easily nicer in Edmonton than 5C here.
Also, is there a reason you’re spelling my name wrong?
“Marko is advising clients and friends who need to sell to lower their price and sell now as there is more downside to upside if they waited until the spring. Marko, I know someone whom you been advising ”
Funniest post of the day. Pretty sure Marko and some others on here were selling investment properties last year too. Some of them talked up the market to buyers but instead sold themselves, and now post with much less frequency (*cough totoro).
Victoria’s low temp of 2018 was -4 which lasted a few hours in February. I guess I’m spoiled here by the good weather where I would dare to call -13 C chilly. Next time I visit Edmonton in winter I’ll be sure to bring my shorts and sandals.
Been hoping for a crash since grade school. Got me there.
Where’s the nuance? You’re a daily driver, and all our gas comes from Alberta in some shape or form. Victoria/Vancouver/Seattle have been financially backing the oil sands since their inception.
Exporting natural gas will actually decrease pollution & CO2, since they’ll be burning that instead of BC’s other huge export – coal (it’s basically a tie with softwood lumber for number 1 export of BC, which incidentally, is the biggest reason we have massive fires in this province) .
“winning financially.”
I really pity this competitive thinking. You seem like that kid back in grade school that got to the top of the snow pile and looked around seeking validation only to realize that nobody’s even watching or gives a fuck. We don’t need to compete against everyone all the time. Let’s chill out and enjoy our lives.
I don’t know how you can think that -13 in Edmonton is chilly then. Moved because of my parents job.
Thanks Viola, i agree hundred % with you .. in the past, i have live with 3 , 2 or 1 roomies .. and i agree 3 and 2 is too much .. 1 bed room suite is nice . but i dont mind 2 bedroom suite to average out the losses of one tenant moving out .. i think the most optimal rental suit is 2 bedroom suit and it makes a very comfy living space for 1100 sqf
That must be the same type of deep, nuanced thinking that has led you to conclude, for 20 years probably, that house prices are sure to drop precipitously in Victoria.
Everything Hawk says is toroshit.
Alternative explanation. “toro” = bull
That was the hope expressed by so many on this blog heading into the recession caused by the global financial crisis.
It’s a portmanteau of Introvert and totoro. To Hawk, we are basically the same—wise in our real estate decision-making and consequently winning financially.
Good Hawk impression, BTW.
You’re the one putting your money into the oil sands every day. Nothing says support like backing them with cash.
I like Victoria. I’ve lived here for over 2 decades. I’m not afraid of saying the weather here in the winter still sucks, or minimizing how fucking dark it is in winter. There’s a lot of seasonal depression here for a reason. I also don’t have to disparage the rest of the country to enjoy this city.
Case in point.
Hawk had some great lines. Here was one of his best….
I don’t know how to quote here but I agree with everything you said Andy. We have had one realtor over and we will get a few more. We want to list at the end of February. My inclination is to price it at a realistic price ( let’s use 529K) and be firm. In the back of my mind is well what if we could have got more? Lol. I don’t think the multiple offer thing works up here very often.( Parksville,Qualicum). Obviously way overpriced and you sit and have to drop over time.
Maybe slightly over say 529 but not much so people think they get a deal when you take a few thousand off.
Thanks. Just mulling all this over.
We will make some money when we sell even though we only bought two,years ago. We got an amazing deal when we bought privately. We would have got more last summer when the market here was hot but we weren’t thinking of moving then. Another long,quiet winter here has confirmed we want city life again.
Pffft. In proper Hawk parlance:
Something about “Intorovert”, too. Never did understand the significance of “Intoro” over “Intro”.
Bears are in a weird position where many of them feel the need to trash Victoria (or at least downplay its positives) because they can’t really afford to buy here but wish they could. Like two kids, one with a really cool toy, the other without, and the latter attempts to rationalize the disparity by minimizing how fun the toy is.
Yeah, what we tend to mean by “bear” on this blog is someone who thinks Victoria prices will eventually correct severely or crash.
Dour!
And are we, at the same time, also going to argue in favour of mega fossil fuel industry expansion in B.C. and Canada, which takes us in the wrong direction atmospherically speaking?
Good ol’ Deadmonton.
If we enter recession in 2019, which a lot of ppl think is likely, I don’t think there’s ever been such a perfect storm for lowering prices.
Wrong, I grew up in the prairies and have been to Edmonton a few times in the winter. I’ve just had my full share of cold weather, snow and summers wrecked by mosquitoes. For people not bothered by that, yes Edmonton is a fantastic place. What made you leave?
Can confirm this. When I lived in AB, I’d roll the windows down on -5 and rarely wore anything more than a light jacket. When the sun is out and shining, it feels much warmer than what the thermometer reads.
You’ve never been to Edmonton clearly. Minus 13c doesn’t even feel chilly when there’s no humidity and it’s sunny. You’d get too hot skating in a toque in that weather. There will be people with shorts on whenever it hits -5, actually.
That listing for some reason, I find oddly appealing. Way far away from everything, no people, silent, simple…
Then again, I guess it’s like the appeal of being a “mountain man”. Sounds fun, until you actually go live it…
@Grace
Personally, I’d price it for the amount you want for it (ie 529k) to help promote a quick sale for your asking price, with the stipulation that it’s the right/reasonable price for your market – if it’s priced right for the market, you’ll get your asking price in a timely manner. If it’s overpriced, you won’t.
I’ve seen too many houses sit on the market because the owners overpriced it, although at 20k over, I doubt that would be the case.
You want to use the newness of your listing to your benefit. If you overprice it, house may stagnate on the market.
Curious to hear Marko’s thoughts on this topic.
P.S. Flip side – if you underprice it, you may get multiple offers, so there’s that to consider as well.
Have you had a couple realtors come over and price the home for you?
I really do hope all you first timers and those that have had to sell for life reasons can find your dream home in the foreseeable future. I do realize in the back of the posts from the bears ,are just families wishing for a home like people and families have done for generations.
Not fun for first timers to face the prices here In the greater Victoria area. Life is very expensive these days and takes a lot of sacrifice and debt vs 20 years ago.
Best of luck and hope you do get your home.
This is from the real Gwac not the one fighting back and forth with Hawk.
So if you are serious about selling but not desperate how do you price your house? Say you think it should sell for 529,000. Price it 20,000 over that? 30,000 over that? Right at 529,000 and accept no offer that isn’t almost exactly that? Just curious. The real estate pricing bidding game is a confusing one.
Technically you’d just owe a quarter of a mill less to the bank.
Must be tempting to,head out for a skate in Edmonton right now. A chilly minus 13c, but, unlike summer, you’re not getting eaten alive by agressive mosquitoes.
Having done the drive up to High level on 88 when it was just a proposed highway, La Crete is a fair distance away. Much better weather in La Crete. Explains the high prices.
Other things you can buy for the price of a Fairfield home or less:
a 600 hog operation on 112 acres near High Level Alberta
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/19979080/agriculture-26104-14-la-crete
Go north, young man!
Nearly 500 acres of native prairie in southern Saskatchewan. Slough included.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20144704/vacant-land-unknown-rural-address-frontier-rm-no-19
Think big – be the lord of all you survey. This one will leave you lots of dough to build a house.
So same reasons as Vancouver?
Last summer was shit. Nearly a month of smokey skies, from mid August onwards. Couldn’t even ride my bike.
And yesterday I rode home in windstorm while being pelted with rain. There are absolutely gorgeous winter days in Edmonton too, the outdoor rinks were packed.
Gawc: I stated Scottsdale house for the winter + PEI house for the summer + $250k in the bank = average Fairfield house.
Also the last time I checked, everyone in this forum is technically a bear… I don’t recall seeing anyone saying prices are going to go up in the near future.
Gawc, didn’t you personally call a 10% correction?
Introvert has agreed that her house would have sold for more in 2017 than it would now.
Multiple folks watching the market has confirmed that Gordon Head and Broadmead SFH have retreated back to 2016/2017 prices; and
Marko is advising clients and friends who need to sell to lower their price and sell now as there is more downside to upside if they waited until the spring. Marko, I know someone whom you been advising 🙂
During the winter, PEI receives an average total yearly snowfall of 290 centimetres (114 inches). Temperatures range between -3 to -11 degrees Celsius (26 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit), but cold winds can make it feel more like it is -25 degrees Celsius (-13 degrees Fahrenheit).
There`s your value prop and when you have health issues and can no longer spend 6 months in Mexico enjoy the weather… I think I will stay here. 🙂
Hansel yep without Hawk I am lost so KS is available. I just love having fun with the Bears come on don’t take it so seriously…
lol Gwac you deserve some kind of award for that hilarious sweeping generalization. Bears all think with one hive mind and are essentially The Borg.
I can’t even find one bear below, let alone all bears, saying PEI and Victoria are the same. Why does simply comparing two things make them the same in the eyes of the bears?
Sorry just trying to give you someone to shout at without Hawk around 🙂 This turkey is cooked! Slashes piling up!!!! Something about a way…a-and a light? Ha who the hell knows.
Gawc: All I stated was that a person can buy both a waterfront house in PEI for the summer and a house in Scottsdale for the winter and still be up $250K, while diversifying their assets compared to buying an average house in Fairfield. I am just trying to see the value proposition between the two options. I believe most people look at several options when making their retirement plans.
Thanks Duran and “Just” James… good suggestions! I will start to look at those areas. The next 8 months or so will be interesting indeed. I’m sure that some deals will pop up.
So PEI and Victoria are now the same in the eyes of the bears. Cool have a nice trip out east. Pick up a snow blower on the way.
PEI rules:
Seems like you can easily manage the snowbird life & come out ahead.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-non-resident-land-ownership-richard-brown-irac-2018-1.4628124
So your saying in order to buy a home in PEI I need to be physically present the whole time I am there and cannot get away somewhere during the winter?
You might not be able to buy the PEI place at all without living there full time thanks to the rules on non-resident ownership. That may help account for the bargain price. Other factors that might make this place cheaper than a house in Fairfield
1) This place is not in a city or anywhere near a city or large town. The closest city as big or bigger than Victoria is 3.5 hours away. The closest city bigger than Campbell River is still 1 hour away. You can find waterfront houses out here for less than a Fairfield house if you go way out of the city.
2) The nearest city of a million or more is 9+ hours away
3) Ocean waterfront where the ocean is frozen for 3-4 months may be considered less desirable by some.
Introvert: Seems that Victoria ranks pretty well; how does it compare to Malibu for weather?
Introvert will probably point out that homes in Malibu costs more than Victoria and as a result Victoria real estate is undervalued and have more potential for growth 😉
“On this January 10th morning I found myself at the park enjoying breezeless 9-degree temperatures under blue skies and sunshine. A passerby greeted me and noted the fantastic weather, saying, “this is why everyone wants to live here!”
It sure is.
And, to preempt James Soper’s inevitable dour observation in response, yes, I realize we are now under overcast skies.”
You must have not been in town for the past couple of weeks then… yes, winter in Victoria is better than the rest of Canada, the key word being Canada.
Introvert: Seems that Victoria ranks pretty well; how does it compare to Malibu for weather?
Ouch. Looking at an approximate million dollar loss with fees and taxes. That is if it sells for current ask.
4213 W 14th Kitsilano
Paid 2.88 – Feb 2016
Ask 2.19
Ass 2.44
On this January 10th morning I found myself at the park enjoying breezeless 9-degree temperatures under blue skies and sunshine. A passerby greeted me and noted the fantastic weather, saying, “this is why everyone wants to live here!”
It sure is.
And, to preempt James Soper’s inevitable dour observation in response, yes, I realize we are now under overcast skies.
I second the suggestion of Maplewood and similar areas.
It’s a super convenient part of town with an easy drive to Downtown or anywhere else really. Established, treed streetscapes with many older Oak Bay style homes. Very middle class. It’s not near the water or abutting UVic or in Oak Bay which is probably why it’s so underrated.
Interesting, so for the price of a house in Fairfield that’s not on the water, one can buy a house on the water in PEI for the summer and also a house in scottsdale for the winter and still have over quarter of a million left. At the same time you have also diversified your exchange rate and real estate risk.
Great post. The number of most clear skies days in summer was a welcome surprise. We’ve all experienced that in the last few summers, so it’s nice to see it as an official stat.
Changing to coin operated machines with tenants already there could be awkward and also possibly illegal if free use of laundry was part of the deal.
The advantages of coin op however:
Commercial machines are more durable
Encourages conservation of water and electricity
Makes a bit of money
My dad owned a rental in Vancouver. He did install coin op with existing tenants when the previous machines crapped out repeatedly. The coin op washer and dryer lasted forever and may well still be going (house is sold). He tenants were accepting of the change likely because they were getting a great deal on rent and my Dad set the coin cost really low.
I used to empty the machines for him
Oak Bay house in which woman was attacked with a machete is now for sale
http://www.victoriabuzz.com/2019/01/oak-bay-house-in-which-woman-was-attacked-with-a-machete-is-now-for-sale/
” pocket listing ” ??
I guess it makes more sense for buildings with many units. Both of our units have laundry in them, which is not coin operated. But I could see how if there are many units it wouldn’t be a good idea (from a landlord perspective) to have a free-for-all laundry system.
fwiw i only recently became an owner. One of the worst landlords I ever had (he was a total a-hole) removed the laundry units the week we moved in and said “too bad -it wasn’t in the lease.” i told him we would have never rented the place if we knew it didn’t have laundry, since I hate laundry mats. He eventually replaced them, but yes it was annoying.
Re: coin op laundry in a rental suite
My previous landlord “renovated” our laundry room (used by us and 1 other tenant in the house) to coin op within a month of us moving in, and when we complained he said pound sand / move out. We had just spent a lot of time and money relocating so didn’t want to do it again so soon and were stuck there for a bit. Coin op laundry within a house it really demoralizing for tenants and will (in our case) make them despise the landlord. I had to constantly hunt for loonies and have them on hand, and if I didn’t have any then our clothes couldn’t be washed despite having funds in my bank account. I would have preferred the laundry cost just be part of my rent or a separate utility bill. I dreamt of pouring cement in the machines when we left. It started a really shitty relationship with our landlord. Please don’t put tenants through coin op laundry in a house.
You’re bearish.
The incredible price difference exists for a reason:
Source: https://www.weatherstats.ca/
Excerpt from the latest BoC press release:
“Meanwhile, consumption spending and housing investment have been weaker than expected as housing markets adjust to municipal and provincial measures, changes to mortgage guidelines, and higher interest rates. Household spending will be dampened further by slow growth in oil-producing provinces. The Bank will continue to monitor these adjustments.”
“…Weighing all of these factors, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on how the outlook evolves, with a particular focus on developments in oil markets, the Canadian housing market, and global trade policy.”
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/01/fad-press-release-2019-01-09/
How chintzy can you get? You’re likely to get more interest if you charged $25 more a month, and just installed regular machines.
@guest_54472 if you’re still reading the answers to your Q about creating a rental space. If the space is going to be in your home (i.e. a basement suite in your primary residence) you might want to limit the number of bedrooms to 1. Normally it makes sense to maximize the number of bedrooms, since each bedroom after 1 bedroom (which rents maybe at 1100?) gets another 600 (around, i think) per month. But, if you’ll be living there, you don’t necessarily want a 2-3 bedroom roomie situation under where you live. If you keep it to 1 bedroom, then, the max number of people that will normally want to live there is 2 (probably hopefully). Anyway, something we considered with our income suite – we had a 1 bedroom and that’s great. If you have more space under, you could create a shared laundry area and put in some coin operated machines to increase your income a bit! Anyway, just a little 2c, although you were asking more about renos, thought i’d put it out there.
RE: VicRE Noobie
Vic West, Cedar Hill/Maplewood, Mt Tolmie and Jubilee come to mind. None of these are widely loved, but all super convenient and still some good deals pop up now and then.
… I don’t miss Hawk….
I miss Hawk….
Curious to know…
Favourite “unsung” neighbourhood in the core for purchasing an investment property. I know…a broad question, but think middle to higher income renters (mid twenties to mid thirties) that will move up within a period of a few years to purchasing a condo/SFH.
Perhaps less spending while it’s not a recession is a good thing.
Yes, radiant (slab/ceiling). Distribution parts (Taco X-block, manifolds) is ~2K. Maintenance would only be the circulators in the X-block, which should last 10 years easy.
Agreed. Makes more sense for commercial, multi-unit residential for DHW only. But then you’re in the same bracket as the Polaris hot water tanks, which are about 5K as well.
This is a somewhat interesting comparison, although the Sanden is quite a bit better than the tank shown here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omivdhxdGv0
Canadian household credit growth has now dropped to levels not seen since the recession in 1983, and continues to fall.
This is despite reasonable wage growth and unemployment at multi-decade lows. In fact, it has never fallen this low outside a recession.
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-household-credit-growth-has-only-been-lower-one-other-period/
Perhaps you are mistaken CRD SFH vs the rest of the Island. There still reasonable area on the Island such as Port Alberni, Campbell River, Parksville etc… that can be had for less than $500 (some are new, and some are water front), and one could easily get an older decent SFH for less than $300K. Or, less than $200K in Sayward, Port McNeil and Port Hardy. And, the weather is way nicer than PEI, NS, or NB.
Vancouver Island living compared to Prince Edward Island living. Check it out:
A very basic 1955 home (1800 square ft) in central Victoria (Fairfield) which looks like it needs a substantial renovation for a whopping $1.2 Million:
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/19954279/3-bedroom-single-family-house-1618-warren-gdns-victoria-rockland
A very beautiful and clean 2010 ocean front acreage (2440 square ft home) in Summerside, Prince Edward Island, for $459K:
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20002523/3-0-bedroom-single-family-house-708-strang-st-nicholas-st-nicholas
I believe many Canadians approaching retirement are starting to look at the east coast of Canada due to the incredible price differences for housing. In the early 1900’s, many people moved from Nova Scotia and PEI out west because it was the land of opportunity. Nowadays, it seems like a reversal of this trend would be in order, especially for retirees.
https://www.bcbusiness.ca/Best-Cities-for-work-in-BC-2019
interesting post .. in a few short years, Victoria fell from one of the best place to one of the worst place to work for people under 35- contributing cause – low salary – high housing cost
call me bearish ..this housing pyramid cant stay upright when the bottom crumbles .. if no one buy in from the bottom.. how are people going to trade up .. maybe the local boomers can downsize .. oh wait … too expensive to downsize
at least they put sannich separately this year
no .. only recently they changed some of the more busy roads into duplex zoning .. majority of the places allowed lane way houses since the beginning of this decade. you can hold seperate land titles under duplex lots ..i dont think you can do that for lane way houses.. on a side note .. lane way house and basement suites in vancouver can have its own unique addresses
not sure if they changed the rules recently .. that was the case when my parents build their place in vancouver … think recently you can also stratafy the lot and sell off the laneway homes.. not sure .. but i am sure the city will eventually do that as home are more out of reach for majority people
420,000 in Minneapolis out of a metro of 3 million is entirely comparable to city of Vancouver vs metro area.
Dude, your idea of significance is weird.
Is there any difference between allowing laneway housing vs allowing a formal duplex? I am not familiar with the wording of previous “duplex” zoning bylaws.
I like the idea the Sanden CO2 system, but how are you using it for heat? Are you doing radiant floors? The interior plumbing for an air to water system seems to be cost and maintenance-prohibitive, especially if you aren’t building slab-on-grade.
The numbers don’t seem to pencil out at $5k if is just a domestic HW tank, especially with cheap and green hydro. Even less so if you happen to have natural gas.
You calling people suckers is self serving!
I had a terrible experience with a mere posting agent. As soon as I paid him upfront, he took my money and went on vacation. He said if you get an offer let the buyers Realtor take care of everything, which is fine but he screwed up my listing as he forgot to add bathrooms to my listing and it took close to a month to reach him to fix the listing. I watched as other similar houses in my neighborhood sold and my vacant house had barely any showings and sat empty. As soon as the mere posting expired I hired a full service Realtor and my house sold right away.
So, for me I was a sucker paying up front for a mere posting!
Yes, if you do your own drain tiles always a chance you hit a gas line and regret not paying a company 25k.
As for me being self-serving the majority of my revenue is full service listing services.
and finally a ton of people have also had terrible experiences with full service agents.
Note that’s the City of Minneapolis, which has 422,000 people out of a metro population of over 3 million. That’s only half the % of metro population of the City of Victoria. Not nearly as significant as it appears at first glance.
I’m in Fairfield close to the water, probably another few degrees cooler than you in Rockland. It works for me as I don’t like heat, but I know some people complain about the summer cold in Fairfield, James Bay and South Oak Bay. No such thing as a sultry summer evening here. Air conditioning would get used literally 1-3 days per year at my location.
We oversized our mini split and the outdoor unit uses an inverter so it doesn’t cycle. Even better efficiency and lower noise. Most of the time I cannot even tell if the outdoor unit is running unless I get 3 feet from it or look at the fan.
I believe Vancouver is now mostly duplex zoned.
If you’re building new, take a look at the Sanden CO2 units. About 5K and it can do heat and domestic hot water if you have a low heat load. Uses CO2 as a refrigerant and no refrigerant lines to run. I have one but haven’t hooked it up yet.
Strangely I am very happy with my old radiators combined with a high efficiency gas furnace. I have noticed that the summer temperature really varies radically across different parts of Victoria. We are about 5C degrees less than Costco and more surprising about 2C less than Cook and Fort. In the last five years I can only recall about three days were the house felt at all even close to hot and even then the evenings were fine.
“Minneapolis To Eliminate Single-Family Zoning”
This seems like abandoning all city planning in one fell swoop…
Newer units are much more efficient at lower temperatures. Make sure to do some research on the right size, though. Oversizing your HVAC seems like good insurance but it often means lower efficiency if it cycles on and off all the time.
Personally, I hate forced air systems so when we build I will go with ductless mini-splits. New construction is “lucky” though, to be able to do it right at the beginning. The only trick is figuring out how to pay for it (as Dasmo found out).
As Sidekick points out, for anyone else considering an upgrade, look at your whole house before replacing your furnace.
Replying to Marko Juras
“It’s kind of like a mere posting versus full service mls. It isn’t rocket science but most people are suckers and pay 10-20k more for full service mls.”
You calling people suckers is self serving!
I had a terrible experience with a mere posting agent. As soon as I paid him upfront, he took my money and went on vacation. He said if you get an offer let the buyers Realtor take care of everything, which is fine but he screwed up my listing as he forgot to add bathrooms to my listing and it took close to a month to reach him to fix the listing. I watched as other similar houses in my neighborhood sold and my vacant house had barely any showings and sat empty. As soon as the mere posting expired I hired a full service Realtor and my house sold right away.
So, for me I was a sucker paying up front for a mere posting!
Speaking of transportation…
‘Seattle Squeeze’: City gears up for major highway closure
https://vancouversun.com/pmn/travel-pmn/seattle-squeeze-city-gears-up-for-major-highway-closure/wcm/b7f563e9-205a-4ed1-89d7-06cebb37cb77
Crown mistakenly exposed police informant, killing massive B.C. money laundering probe
A massive RCMP investigation of alleged underground bankers in Richmond, B.C., estimated to be laundering over $1-billion per year, collapsed in November because federal prosecutors mistakenly exposed the identity of a police informant who they feared could have been killed if the case proceeded, Global News has learned.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4816822/exclusive-epirate-crown-exposing-police-informant-killed-b-c-money-laundering-probe/
Thanks, Leo. I’d be looking at a 0.75% discount (today, anyway) if I stayed with my lender, Coast Capital. If the discount is similar when I renew, I’ll probably take it. I need the ability to double-up mortgage payments and to drop a 20% lump sum on the anniversary, which CC offers me.
Yeah, I’ve got $7K set aside for my roof of similar square footage.
Rail has to be a part of the long-term strategy, IMO. I’m cautiously optimistic that political momentum is building and things are happening.
Or just don’t list your house in the summer.
The first thing people should do when considering a change in heat source (or replacement) is to pick off the low-hanging energy sinks. Consider improving insulation levels, air sealing, window glazing, removable window overhangs for summer overheating.
While not always necessary, an energy assessment typically isn’t that much and should show you where you’re losing most of your heating/cooling.
A removable awning or deciduous vine is a great way to add shade in the summer but let light through in the winter. Another option is to change the glazing in the offending windows.
Most of the time, A/C shouldn’t be necessary. Consider a window on the lowest floor of the house coupled with a window/skylight up high to maximize stack effect ventilation.
Baseboards can work but mini-splits are better. A heat pump is (typically) twice as efficient as baseboards in cold temperatures (0C) and often 3 to 4 times more efficient in cool-mid temps. Just remember that some of the exterior units can be a bit loud.
You just might find it makes sense to wall mount one or more of these in each room (https://www.costco.ca/De'Longhi-Slim-Style-Convector-Heater.product.100308734.html $150) and have someone take a look at upgrading insulation/windows/doors.
One level, cement slab house. Baseboard heating.
I guess a heat pump would be redundant for my house environment. In the 6’ish years I’ve lived in our house, I’ve only felt the need to use a regular electric fan about 2 days to 2 weeks (depending) per summer.
but…
Prior to that we lived in a 4 story corner unit facing sun in evening 4th floor, and geting heat form units below, (Hot). But still only ever needed to use a regular electric fan about 2 days to 2 weeks (depending) per summer.
So I guess it depends on who you are as well.
We were quoted $14k just to add a heatpump to our radiant system. New construction. Estimated to save $500/ year in energy costs. I doubt that $saving model included our near passive house efficiency. Needless to say I did my best joker laugh….
It’s a plus to experience the design working though. We actually had to keep our windows shut in the summer to not let the hot air in! On the hottest days I think we maxed out at 24 deg inside. With the power outage over three days we also didn’t have any heat and dropped to a low of 19.
Since I’m looking at a potential bazooka sized hole in my wallet, I’ve been thinking long and hard about this. As with most things, there’s probably no one size fits all answer. I think that, electrical efficiency of the heat pump aside, the 2 primary things to consider are the heating and cooling properties. On the heating side I’ve been disappointed with the heat pump (admittedly I’m judging a 13 yr old Frigidaire (Nordyne) unit, which when the tech today saw it today said – “oh, a Frigidaire”. These are apparently not the best units but were commonly used by developers.) When the heat pump was still working and the temperatures dropped, the heat pump seemed to be on 75% of the time and went through constant on/off cycles (defrost). When it’s below 0C the thing really struggled to get any heat out at all. It’s also loud (and right outside our master bedroom to boot). If all it did was heat, there’s no question I’d toss it and go with a gas furnace (since we already have a gas line to the house).
However heat pumps also give A/C in the summer. As a new resident on the island I would have thought this to be completely unnecessary, but our first full month in the house was August and it was damn near 30C+ outside everyday. My place has these 3 monster windows in the family room (vaulted ceiling to top of 2nd floor) on the south side. Two of them have a shade that can come down but the very top one doesn’t. So the solar energy that comes in is significant, plus the house insulation is not great, and so without the A/C on the house was quickly warming to 27C and higher by 11AM. So for our own comfort the A/C was very welcome. And if I look to resell in the future, NOT having a heat pump could be a big minus for some buyers. So for our situation, it’s probably smart (but painful) to replace with another heat pump. A smaller house in an area with more wind or shade, I doubt it’d be worth it.
Lastly, another update – the 2nd tech was out today and basically echoed what the first one said. Compressor DOA. Coils in air exchanger in the basement are very corroded, it could start leaking there very soon. Coils in the heat pump outside are also corroded. R22 is very expensive to get right now, etc. etc.
The wording of that press release seems really weird to me. Kind of like they will magically figure out a complete solution and start building in a couple months?
If it doesn’t include some serious attempt at rail, I will be very disappointed.
No, Victoria is great for air-source heat pumps. You just have to run your own numbers to see if it works for you. If you have natural gas available, that is often cheaper. You have to balance the installation costs and running costs over the long term. Baseboards work, but you can pay a lot if your house is leaky.
The main thing is to get rid of an old oil burning furnace. If the market tightens, I can see it getting harder to sell houses that have any hint of oil anywhere on the property. Soil contamination laws are brutal.
Good news on the transportation strategy announcement (although why weren’t they doing this before?). As someone from Calgary who goes back a few times a year, it blows my mind that a new overpass can be built in a few months there to service a suberb of 4000 people but we can’t get one done here over a decade to service 100,000.
@Heat Pump Comments
Have we not come to the conclusion in the past on HHV, that they are redundant for a Victoria B.C. Climate?
Inspector of our house informed us that our 1983 interlocking shingles probably have 3 more years of life in them.
We just did our shingles last year (6 years after inspection).
So previous asphalt shingles lasted 35, and may have lasted more. But they were rough and shedding sandy bits into the gutters.
Approx. Just under $5000 for 1,195 Sq Ft. Near the end of March, last year.
Good news for rail (I hope) and general moving about. Lots of empty land along the E&N that could become high density with a tram link and generally better options for travel to and from town or about the West Shore. IMO this is preferable to demolishing neighbourhoods bit by bit and replacing them with a bit more density. Way too slow and not enough real impact on the available “middle ground” of housing. Transform Adams storage and Fort Victoria into a row house/apartment village with a tram link running right through the middle of it. Now that would make an impact!
Province launches southern Vancouver Island transportation strategy
A complete, comprehensive and co-ordinated look into improving traffic flow on southern Vancouver Island is the focus of a new transportation strategy being launched by the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.
The area of focus will be existing and future multi-modal infrastructure projects on southern Vancouver Island, going as far north as the Duncan area and as far west as the Sooke area. It will look at current transportation demands and develop a roadmap for future investments across all modes of travel.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2019TRAN0002-000015
0.63%. If I would have waited another couple months I could have gotten about 1%. Not sure if discounts are still that high. Note that some advertised rates on things like ratespy are only for new mortgages or mortgages over a certain size or insured mortgages so may not be available to you.
2849 Burdick ave seems to be on and off the market for a while now. Anyone know why this one hasn’t sold? Asking too much or is there something wrong with it? Looks like a nice place to me!
https://www.casalova.com/for-sale/2849-burdick-ave-victoria-bc-v8r-3m1-394777
Leo, may I ask what your discount off prime was? I’m pretty sure I’m going variable at renewal.
Despite faster than expected interest rate increases and mediocre discount off prime our variable is still cheaper than what they offered as fixed 10 months ago.
This. Big source of particulate emissions, which is sad because I love wood stoves.
Am switching over to ethanol.
As expected,
No change: Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 1.75%
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.4971176
Thanks Leo. Lack of inventory is what made us offer more than we wanted but much less than ask and also helped us sell our house quickly. I know people relisting in the spring but they have rental options so that is the big problem with the theory prices will drop. People asking $3500 for mediocre new 3 bedroom homes. I was also shocked at the competition for million-plus homes, I think we need a long recession which would not be good for anyone before we see big price adjustments.
I should have an accurate update on Electrical for you in the next week or so…the panel for our inlaws was too small and we basically did a small condo/house wiring within our house, but for a full house upgrade with pre-1970’s wiring I’d budget 20k when you know an electrician and are very patient and fine with power on and off for a month or two.
Not everyone has a strong back, access or ability to run a small excavator without causing more damage, to redo their own drainage and you would be surprised how hard it is to run a drainage/landscaping company in a country where most people want to be social media experts.
On HVAC replacement. I’ve noticed amazing online pricing (close to 1/2 local quotes who are facing a big markup with local suppliers) with free or cheap shipping from Ontario. I paid a huge premium for new since I was getting rebates but I would consider buying equipment online (Be very careful it is the right stuff and they have a return policy) and getting a contractor to install it. If you have a ducted heat pump look at Fortis natural gas furnace with a rebate. Use the money difference on a down payment on a Nissan Leaf and still feel good about helping the environment.
Happy new year, HHV I wonder if the carpenter is here yet and if the electrician and plumber will show…it might be a $5000 day 🙁 just doing our part for the economy.
@ Jamal McRae
I’m not going to rehash what other has said, but IMHO electrical will cost more than $12,000. Most of Victoria storm and sanitary sewage are separate except for some old part of Oakbay that have combine system (potential for backing up sanitary sewage during heavy downpours and floods).
Building drain tiles do not have to be next to the building foundation. It can be as far out as 1 meter or more, therefore a digger will not disturb the building foundation.
I can give you more information on plumbing and electrical if you want, but IMHO it is well above most DIYer skill level and knowledge of building codes hence it make sense to leave it to an electrician/plumber.
Maybe if you live in the country. in the city you are just forcing everyone to breathe your second hand smoke.
Yeah I did 5’ by hand at my parents place…. didn’t make anywhere near 25k either!
I’ll do it for $20k.
if the drains average 3’ deep, then the rough cost will be:
$50 x 165 x 3 ~ $25,000
lol….at 3′ deep and 25k I would hand dig if I had to.
To calculate the rough cost of replacing old perimeter drains, try this formula:
$50 x total run length in feet x average depth in feet = appropriate total cost.
For example; a house with a 35’x35’ footprint that sits 25’ from the front property boundary will have 35+35+35+35+25 feet of run = 165 feet of run and if the drains average 3’ deep, then the rough cost will be:
$50 x 165 x 3 ~ $25,000
This assumes you already have a storm water connection to the city drains; if not, a new connection to the city drain will cost over $5,000 extra.
Any extra work will cost extra:
City drain connection $5000; clean the concrete foundation walls and re-seal with quality membrane $5-10,000, geotechnical cloth around the pipe and drain rock $$, sump pump pit $$… it all adds up fast
You also need a permit from the city for a small fee and it should be inspected.
I think I’m confusing fireplace with furnace. We use the fireplace for heat, and we adjust it with remote control. The device that opens and closes the gas valve in response to those inputs is battery operated. There is no electricity otherwise and no blower motor. It is vented, of course.
A friend of mine has a gas fireplace as well, but you can definitely hear some type of fan motor on that one. Anyways in my case, heat with no hydro power. The hot water tank is also NG, but does require electricity for some kind of motor that sits on top of the tank assembly.
Local doesn’t the blower for the natural gas furnace require electricity?
My parents had a furnace that was a brick without power. I don’t think it makes any attempt to work without power. But I guess there’re models that do? How does it power the thermostat and blower?
Standing seam is so pretty though! I didn’t do it on our build. I did metal faced facia and drip edge with torch on membrane. It will last long, and was more than shingles but less than metal.
I redid the roof on my first house and did higher end asphalt shingles. They were a bit more but the thicker shingles, nicer edges and taller ridge cap shingles looked better (and had a 50 year warranty).
We use NG. No effect when the power goes out.
For once we agree on something. It blows my mind that a power out completely disables gas and oil furnaces. Woodstoves are great and baseboards in BC are powered by 93% renewable or hydro.
@guest_54535
Cancelled. Clearly overpriced, and could use some updating.
My asphalt shingles are wearing really well. Roof is around 20 years old. I have the cash in hand to replace it anytime. Got it inspected three years ago—was told I don’t need a new roof yet. Got it inspected last spring—was told I don’t need a new roof yet, but replacing the ridge caps would be a good idea. Did it myself.
Will stick with asphalt (or fiberglass) shingles when I do eventually replace the roof.
Grant’s situation certainly underscores the importance of having a strong emergency fund, especially if you’re a homeowner.
Interesting insight.
Leo,
Great interview, very informative.
As a follow up, for the big rental supply coming, you mentioned “Langford” a couple of times. Do you have a breakdown of the number of new rental units in Victoria core vs Westshore?
Cool thanks Marko
Very smart of you.
Marko don’t they sell the showroom kitchens/bathroom with the unit?
You are confusing showsuite with showroom. Typically for large pre-sale condos the developer leases a commercial office space in close proximity to the development site. Here they build a sample kitchen/bathroon and typically one of their employees picks it up at the end, unless they give it to someone to some to make a deal happen. You have to be flexible on timing as you don’t know when they will demo the showroom.
Grant – Thanks for sharing. Good info to have and probably not something many people would be looking at / for when purchasing. Highly doubt a housing inspector would catch something like that (perhaps maybe how old it is but definitely not the associated costs to replace as Grant has outlined). I’m seriously considering just hiring specific trades to come out and take a look at our next purchase if that’s even an option (worth their time).
Anyone – I have a PCS and can usually track but but cant find this listing anymore even though I had it saved.
MLS 402057 – 1436 Ocean View Rd. Did it sell and if so, for how much? Thanks kindly for the info.
Marko don’t they sell the showroom kitchens/bathroom with the unit?
thank you Marko, your insights and knowledge are always welcomed
Deb, don’t know when they did your bathroom, but the old owners of swiftsure, are now south shore cabinetry
+1, that is correct. South Shore is top notch product.
I’ve also had good experiences with Harbour City but it is a 2 to 3 month wait right now. Many happy clients with IKAN.
Over the years I’ve also started asking for the showroom kitchen and bathrooms in the pre-sale condo developments I’ve bought into and the majority of the time the developer agrees. I have a Duet development kitchen in my suite above the garage…..(cabinets, countertops, sink, faucet, etc., all in for $1,000).
Currently slated to get the two Encore showroom kitchens for $500.
Also, I tried the search function but to no avail. Are there any strong opinions on this board (haha) with respect to roofing? We need a new one, and I would like to consider standing seam metal, but is it really 3x the price as I’ve heard?
Odds are you are not going to be in the home long enough to make it worth while nor will you get the money back on re-sale. On my personal build I went with shingles a notch above spec (Malarkey) with upgraded ridge caps. Anything beyond that waste of money imo.
Base boards and a Woodstove insert are a perfect combination.
all those old furnace pipping make the basement a bit short .. l. how much does it cost to put in 200 amp service and adding base board heaters into both floors?
10k +/-. Add 2k if underground service that needs a new conduit.
Personally I would go 200 amp service, 3 ton ductless mini-split, 2 heads upstairs and 1 head in the suite. Bedrooms baseboards with programmable thermostats.
i am sure my drains need to to be renewed by now .. does victoria have separate rain water and sewage drains .. and how much would it cost to replace?
Majority of areas in Victoria have separate storm and sewage. Just check on Vic Maps.
Drain tiles are probably the biggest rip-off going. I’ve helped my father install drain tiles on 10+ brand new homes and did my own personal house. It isn’t rocket science.
If you are savvy you can do drain tiles for cheap. i.e., hire a mini-excavator operator to dig the trenches. Buy the material and call a plumber to glue it all together with the correct grading. Seal the foundation maybe? Or you can call a full service company and drop 15 to 25k on drain tiles.
It’s kind of like a mere posting versus full service mls. It isn’t rocket science but most people are suckers and pay 10-20k more for full service mls.
People crap on baseboards all the time but they actually aren’t too bad, especially in a well insulated home, considering they are maintenance free. I was at a 1984 home inspection today and every original baseboard and thermostat worked perfectly.
Made a video about this a couple of years ago -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3rmdzPaJPA
Sorry to hear about your troubles, Grant. What a pain.
Your story is a good one to share though – it provides a real life example of the things that can (and do) happen when you own your own home, and the importance of ensuring you are able to financially deal with things as they occur as well as having an pre-purchase inspection. Buying to your literal financial limit is always a bad idea.
One person I know from work bought locally 2 years ago (not sure if it was a panic buy), but they didn’t do an inspection before buying. Eventually they determined there was a seeping oil tank under the yard. Bill so far: 80k and counting, and I saw her crying in her office once. No idea if there’s recourse in that situation, but talk about a hard lesson. She’ll never do that again.
Since my last post I’ve spoken with a rep at Andrew Sheret (plumbing supply) and another chap from Exchange Energy (who is also going to give me a 2nd quote). Both concurred that this issue (R22 no longer in use in favor of R410) is a big problem as older heat pumps (2010 and prior) are reaching their end of life. Freon (R22) has much different characteristics (displacement, pressures etc.) than Puron (R410), they use different oils (which means you’d have to flush the lines) and basically one cannot be used in exchange of the other. This doesn’t just impact the heat pump itself, but also the coils in the air exchanger in your house, and that’s why the costs start to skyrocket. Some try to frankenstein it but the costs are already high to do this and you’re really rolling the dice on whether things will work. I doubt most reputable contractors would do any frankensteins. The first company gave two options, one at $11K for a Rudd and $16K for a Mitsubishi. The Mitsubishi is super quiet, very reliable and works well to -20C, and has an option for different temperature zones throughout your house. But what a price premium. Both quotes include all new heat pump, new air exchanger, any ducting changes and disposal of the old units. We’ll see what the 2nd contractor comes in at or if they say any intermediary fix can be done.
The best thing to properly search Leo’s site is to use google and restrict it to HHV. A search string similar to “roofing shingle metal site:househuntvictoria.ca” This string takes me to Leo’s post from June 2018 and there is a comment from once and future about metal roofing, not sure if that is what you are looking for.
looking to budget some money for renos – any guidance or remarks are welcome –
I have have an older home and want to make the unfinished basement rentable – right now … all those old furnace pipping make the basement a bit short .. l. how much does it cost to put in 200 amp service and adding base board heaters into both floors? ..
also .. i am sure my drains need to to be renewed by now .. does victoria have separate rain water and sewage drains .. and how much would it cost to replace?
I am pretty sure anyone selling a house in Gordon Head, Broadmead or Oak Bay are also wishing for a price insensitive Chinese buyer.
.. damn .. with the recent years of bumped prices .. nothing much (house or condos) falls in the first time home buyer tax exemption rules.. maybe in 2 years something will fall below the 500k fair market value for first time buyer land transfer tax exemption
A real estate agent telling the seller to lower their asking price… how original, and not at all self-serving.
Unless he’s referring only to the high-end of the market… to convince anyone that “those days are gone”, you would need to explain this …. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/chinese-middle-class-buying-up-american-residential-real-estate.html
Maybe the song isn’t “Those We’re the Days”… it is, as the Carpenters told us … “We’ve Only Just Begun!”
“Fraser Valley Condo Prices Slide 7.7% since June
Back in February 2018 I penned a post titled “Vancouver’s Suburbs Hitting Peak Bidding Wars.” Condo inventory had plummeted, hitting a decade low and the number of condos being sold above the asking price reached a staggering 53%. The MLS benchmark price had recorded an eye watering year-over-year gain of 47%. It seemed nothing could stop the compelling story of ever rising prices in Vancouver’s growing suburban market.
What a difference 10 months can make. Since then the Fraser Valley condo market has come to a screeching halt.
The average sales price has registered a 10.5% drop, the median by 9.9%, the average price per square foot by 8.5% and the smoothed out MLS benchmark price (lagging indicator) suggests a 7.7% price decline since June.”
Source: Steve Saretsky
https://vancitycondoguide.com/fraser-valley-condo-prices-slide-7-7-since-june/?fbclid=IwAR20kT5VL45SvTniOp3w_o_gHr0jBHgjTLb_-xuE3RNDveqWKUPpYdDVGMc#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fraser-valley-condo-prices-slide-7-7-since-june
Clearly someone doesn’t understand market value & assessments. She helped contribute to her neighborhood’s increase in assessment by helping set an inflated market value for her property. Good luck on that appeal…..
Unhinged man on street with pick axe. Hawk not posting today. Related?
Ask the police if the perp was carrying a graph with a wavy line.
That’s good news. Let’s hope that there’s lots of nice SFH available, maybe more affordable than this one, and young families interested in buying them. That would make for a nice spring market all around.
Haha Vic RE Noobie about better plans for $$
I’m very excited about the next couple years. I feel that there will be some great deals to be had.
My lips are sealed.
Infrequent:
We bought a house with asphalt shingles…10 years old and the inspector said we could easily get 10 more years out of it…perhaps 15. Works well and it’s easy to maintain with the occasional moss clean up.
My wife was really interested in metal roofing. For S&G’s (sh*tz and giggles), I arranged a few quotes. Quite pricey, but have a super long guarantee period (we were quoted 35 years). Since I believe that we will be living in this house for some time, I expect to be pushing up daisies in 35 years and for my wife to get remarried to the garden guy. Methinks investing in a wine cellar is a better idea….
Yeah, saw him. The pick ax combined with angry yelling directed at people only he could see was alarming. Hopefully got some medical attention.
Hi everyone, happy new year. Grant, please keep us updated on your heat pump travails. I may find myself in a similar situation sooner rather than later, as we bought a house with a similar vintage heat pump this past summer.
Also, I tried the search function but to no avail. Are there any strong opinions on this board (haha) with respect to roofing? We need a new one, and I would like to consider standing seam metal, but is it really 3x the price as I’ve heard? I keep coming across something called “architectural shingles” in my googling as well.. that sounds like a silly name, but does it just mean “shingles that are high quality and will last a long time”? Any opinions? Hoping to start a metal vs shingle flame war so that I can see what people are most passionate about and buy that.
Perhaps the choice of the word “unfair” was poor and reflects that I’m licking my wounds. However, as it stands at the moment I’m left with a furnace that only has the electric heating elements (plus a gas fireplace in the main living area.) So my electricity usage and gas usage is going way up as I try to keep the house warm. For the $10-$15K a replacement could cost I’ll bet I could continue subsidizing my heating bills for quite some time, especially since it’s really only needed in the winter. I’d lose the A/C in the summer, but again, if they want people to reduce usage it seems the program should be available to anyone who puts in a new heat pump.
Thanks for the recommendations QT.
Remember when realtors were promoting FOMO to get buyers in at all costs? Now that buyers have lost that desire, some realtors are trying to induce FONGO* in sellers. Too funny, when you recognize this theater for what it is…
*Fear of Not Getting Out
Here it is, boys and girls. Clip of Leo’s interview on CFAX 1070:
http://bmradio-a.akamaihd.net/media/Cfax1070/1546983947_rental_vacancy_rate_-_leo_spalteheolz.mp3
This story is amusing, especially the first example with the duplex: https://www.timescolonist.com/real-estate/victoria-homeowners-appealing-surreal-property-assessments-1.23583566
Oh dear.
Personally, I would call around for a few more quotes and diagnosis from reputable HVAC companies, such as Island Temperature Controls or West Bay Mechanical (an experienced technician is the most critical). Or, call HVAC suppliers for recommendations such as Pacific Controls Ltd., Sinclair Supply Ltd., or ECCO Supply.
One can find out the refrigerant that the unit take by check the plate information (banned refrigerant R22, new refrigerant R410a) and size (how many tons). It shouldn’t be more than a couple of pounds to top up the refrigerants, as most residential units are around 2 to 4 tons (average 2-4 pounds of refrigerant per ton). And, I wouldn’t replace the emergency/backup heat if it is still working especially if it is natural gas or electric.
Damn Calgarians with English degrees driving up prices!
Perhaps too cynical of me, but I’m pretty sure these programs are there to goose the industry. My favourite one goes to Fortis: https://efficiencybc.ca/incentives/fortisbc-new-home-step-code-incentives/
They neglect to mention that it’s pretty much impossible to build a step 4/5 building using the required gas appliances.
Not to mention there are no incentives for new construction, which would be the most efficient time to divert folks to more efficient options…
Deb, don’t know when they did your bathroom, but the old owners of swiftsure, are now south shore cabinetry.
Should have closed the doors before you got here.
How is that unfair? The whole goal of the program is to get people to use less electricity, not fuel heat pump purchases.
Good god, that is a tale of woe. Sorry you’re facing that, Grant.
Suddenly feeling sorta thankful for my basic “old technology” furnace that, I’m guessing, wouldn’t cost $15K to replace…
Caveat:
I can recommend a butcher, a baker, but not a cabinet maker… 😉
@josh and it has a small yard and the maintenance fees are so low! i’d offer 499 – but i like to haggle 🙂
@josh the 50 Montreal one looks very nice. We are a younger family with 2 kids living in a 1200 square foot townhouse in the core. For us having 3 levels is great because we can be downstairs at night watching tv etc… and not have to worry too much about waking the kids up. I don’t like one level places for this reason.
#donthave1million
I hadn’t seen it yet. Looks decent but since it’s all one level, I would be competing with a small army of retirees. Price is high for not having a 3rd bedroom IMO. 7-50 Montreal St has a 3rd bedroom and is 110k cheaper. If they just had a realtor that responded…
Wheeeeee… our heat pump has died! When we were inspecting the house back in May the inspector mentioned the original compressor was at end of life (house built in 2005). “Ok”, I thought, I guess I’m looking at a couple thousand bucks when that goes, and hopefully I can squeeze a bit more time out of it.
Boy was I wrong on both counts. I had the techs out yesterday and they confirmed the compressed was dead. I figured as much since the fan came on but the compressor simply wouldn’t kick to life. The head tech told me the problem I have is that this heat pump is from 2005 and uses a refrigerant that is now banned. Yes, they have some spare refrigerant that they were using for maintenance needs but it costs $80 a pound and I’d be looking at 150lbs of it for my setup, and there is the cost of finding a replacement compressor. ($2000USD from what I see online) But he said the rest of the heat pump is old and he used the analogy of putting a new engine in a car with 500,000 km. So, we just get a new heat pump right? Not so fast. The next problem is the furnace is designed to run with this older refrigerant and they can’t retrofit it to a new heat pump. Plus, the furnace coils themselves are fairly corroded (the inspector had also showed this to me.) SO, lucky devil that I am, I’m potentially looking at replacing the entire HVAC (heat pump and furnace). Cost? The tech said he doesn’t like to discuss costs with owners because they get mad but he ballparked our setup at anywhere from $10-$15K, depending on what brand and efficiency ratings we went with. Ouch. As best as one can tell, these guys (Mercury Refrigeration out of Duncan) seemed very knowledgeable and straightforward, and they were recommended to me.
Has anyone run into something similar and does anyone know if the current BC rebates can be applied if you’re replacing a heat pump with another heat pump? (The rules seem to indicate that No, I wouldn’t be eligible, which is a little unfair if you ask me.)
https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/power-smart/residential/programs/home-renovation-rebates-terms-and-conditions.pdf
Let’s try to keep it that way.
@guest_54449
Look how long it took after oil fell off a cliff for the consumer proposals to start rising in Alberta (up 26.5%). People will tap everything until they cannot pay their mortgage or their personal debts.
Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in Canada in 42 YEARS! Oh yeah and it’s a lagging indicator.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4814645/canada-december-2018-jobs-unemployment-wages/
https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/1082480929896058880
Hey folks
Thanks for all the cabinetry suggestions. You have given me some really good leads to follow up!
Josh: Have you looked at the townhouse at 1447 St.David? It is a reasonable size at for a young couple with two bedrooms and 1200 square feet. Older but priced at 639k. Fairly close to the hospital and walking distance to both the ocean and the heart of Oak Bay.
I have not gone through it and while it is not your beloved James Bay it is still a great location with grocery stores, coffee shops, library and a great Pub within easy walking distance. The negative seems to be that this sounds more like a condo than a traditional townhouse.
@guest_54457
http://swiftsurewoodworkers.com did a great job in our bathroom, couldn’t have been happier.
Caveat: If you are looking for quality at a fair price try Blackdog carpentry. I should warn you that he refuses to use MDF for his kitchen work and his cabinets are all wood. He built my library and did a beautiful job as well as creating all new facings and trim for the kitchen. His pricing was very reasonable and he was on time and exactly on quote. I have an immense respect for his work,
When people talk about “Victoria” they almost always mean “Greater Victoria” which includes places like Metchosin. Heck the VREB even adds in the southern Gulf Islands to their statistics.
So both regions have outlying areas and suburbs included. Usually comparisons between individual municipalities in the CRD vs Greater Vancouver are not valid because the lines are drawn arbitrarily and include or exclude different priced neighbourhoods.
The journalists writing these articles are trying to make the most clickable headline they can, and that’s a bad news headline “if it bleeds it leads”. If you go to the data they cite in the article, you’ll see that Canada bankruptcies actually fell -2.5% month to month. They are up an unremarkable 2 % year over year (2018 vs 2017), and some of that rise is expected with population growth. http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br04024.html#tbl1
BC bankruptcies are better than Canada, BC bankruptcies down 4% month to month and only up 1.6% year on year (2018 vs 2017) (close to population growth).
A neighbour a few doors down just sold at Shawnigan Lake. Taxable value is less than 900,000, sold for 1,300,000 ( They bought in 2017 for $860,000 and put less than $100,000 in. ) Good start to the year.
We used IKAN and they installed (and demo’d) our kitchen using ikea cabinets. It took a week and cost 9k. We are so happy with it – especially since it was all done in one week. Ours is a small kitchen.
I see a few posts talking about comparing Vancouver with Victoria …which I also always like to do. But if you do make comparisons and you are looking at graphs, charts etc….you always have to keep in mind that when any of these reports mention “Vancouver” …they are almost always refering to “Greater Vancouver”. That includes real estate well out into the Valley and even includes Bowen island. So in reality…. it can become a false comparison. I feel that it is best to think of a map or area in terms of a bike ride or a walk. That way you are not comparing apples with oranges. When you do that…… you realize that the central core of Vancouver prices are much much more than simply “double” the central core of Victoria’s. It’s quite shocking actually the difference.
For Caveot Emptor: A good cabinet maker is a fellow named, Ian Shipley … he worked on the woodwork details of the Oak bay beach hotel I believe. I think that is how you spell “Shipley”. Good luck.
@ caveat emptor#54475
Anyone have a recommendation for a good cabinetmaker?
Is it for your own house or a rental ?
We use IKEA in all of our rentals and they hold up great, we also have ikea in our own house now.
It all depends on how much money you want to spend and if you can get over the fact that you have an ikea kitchen !!!
Most people do not know the difference once they are installed, we put them in a house we flipped in Fairfield and that house was sold for a million 4 years ago ( shoulda kept it as a rental )
More people are going broke in Canada as interest rates rise
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/more-people-are-going-broke-in-canada-as-interest-rates-rise-1.1194883
South Shore.
https://southshorecabinetry.com/
@guest_54457
Harbour city
Josh, that is a great link. My only criticism is that it overemphasizes the effect of density. Vancouver (BC) and Portland are about the same size, but the big green spikes make Vancouver stand out more.
For anyone that doubts that Canada is awesome (and empty), take look at China and India.
Anyone have a recommendation for a good cabinetmaker?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/biggest-real-estate-bubbles-2018/
Are you putting in an offer?
Josh .. dont state the obvious .. you might scare the bulls .. we all know victoria is immune to world down turns .
.. its all about numbers … when you spend a big chunk of change and market only produce 1-2% gains after fees and cost .. its better to just buy gic for a few years then come back into the market
sure the past 3 years was an astronomical run .. .. but the growth is decelerating and near reversing ..going to be joy for buyers .. going to be fun for sellers
by recent Victoria standards that doesn’t look like too bad a deal if you like old character homes.
Last year a 2 bedroom ground floor condo with zero privacy was listed for $1.1m at 200 Douglas St. Now you can get a gorgeous 5 bedroom fully updated character home for the same price at 329 Simcoe St.
I missed that it’s not of course including this Jan. Still crazy low but would show a solid incline upwards.
That chart is only January. So January 2018, January 2017, January 2016, etc.
New listings always outstrip sales in January but you wouldn’t expect them to match. Even for the full year new listings will be higher than sales for the reasons you cite, but the gap is not as large as indicated in that chart.
Keep in mind that chart ends at January 2018. So we are higher now, but at about 2000 still will be less than average for January.
I don’t believe so. Joe Perkins only seems to post the highlights, not every show.
Neat 3D population map. Victoria is tiny.
https://pudding.cool/2018/10/city_3d/
Worth a listen…
Petition to ban smoking in multi-unit dwellings on its way to the BC Legislature
https://omny.fm/shows/the-simi-sara-show/petition-to-ban-smoking-in-multi-unit-dwellings-on?fbclid=IwAR03wOMW2DqrduBNHLhjVddIH-j_aVpIa5G1LHbdVCo0THSVTX-D9Lnyddo
Is there a time limit that a listing can be considered and advertised as a new listing? There are some ‘new listings’ in my neighborhood that have been there since last summer, and there has not been a change in the listing agent.
I bet your legs were cold too. The wet cold is always nasty when biking in shorts here in winter….
Cadborosaurus “sellers ‘deserve’ their huge equity gains of the last couple of years [and] Buyers ‘deserve’ houses they can afford to live in too.”
I’ve noticed this too and it makes me chuckle every time I hear a boomer call a millennial entitled. Entitlement works both ways and we’re seeing that now with sellers. Like how proud do you have to be to be offended that the house you paid $400,000 for is only fetching a $1,000,000 offer?
I agree on the stress test. All it really did was knock down the FOMO folks that spend to the hilt. Everyone else who was only willing to spend 80% or so of their 2016/2017 pre-approval amount was simply able to ratchet that up to 100% of their 2018/2019 pre-approval amount. Because of this I don’t see where the pent up demand is either.
Leo
I use chainsaw anti vibration gloves from Marks. Warm and bike rideable. Good padding/warmer better than cyclIng gloves.
Great post! I agree, and hope it is a great and positive year for you. Good luck with the hunt!
I dunno my fingers got pretty cold this evening riding home.
They haven’t, don’t, and won’t march in lockstep. There are ALWAYS local factors. However the data shows there is a degree of correlation between neighboring markets and at times between markets nationwide. This is as one would predict from economic theory. The surprise would be if neighbouring markets had no correlation
Agreed. If Vancouver goes down hard, there will be some significant spillover to surrounding markets. That’s undeniable.
I gave you this…. Flat for Victoria, up 32% for Vancouver. Does that not count as a divergence?
2010..2014 Victoria flat. (140 to 140)
2010..2014 Vancouver up 32%. (145 to 190)
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf
To Sum up Vancouver and Victoria have not acted the same. There has been a speculative aspect to Vancouver that is unwinding. Why is Victoria different (more stable). Government….. The provincial government and its spending and job creation has a big impact on Victoria.
You need sellers…Not a lot of them right now.
We have a standoff right now and without major job cuts we will see a lot more of the last 6 months for the next few years until we inflate out of the unaffordability.
</For one, there is the trend of billions upon billions of foreign dollars flooding the Vancouver market over a several-year period, driving house prices to the $1.5M to $5M range in many areas.
And you don't think those factors have anything to do with the prices increases in Victoria?
KS112,
Broadly, they are because they are responding to the same macro trends, and Victoria is also a secondary market.
Having said that, they do diverge. The crash of ’81 saw a considerably faster real-price recovery in Victoria than Vancouver did, and there have been a few other exceptions.
The thing that tends to separate the two markets more than anything is their volatility, primarily due to Vancouver’s greater exposure to global money flows. The recent run up is a perfect example.
But I say your point stands. Another way you could make your point is, it would be nigh impossible for Vancouver to go through a housing recession and Victoria (or Kelowna, Abbotsford etc) to not do the same.
I am pointing at the trend, not the magnitude of the actual change. But if you think a declining Vancouver market would not negatively affect the Victoria market then be my guest.
Why not put one index finger on the top right of the (teranet) Victoria graph, and then put the other index finger on the top of the Vancouver graph. And tell me if your finger tips are at a “pretty darn similar” height
i am looking at the graphs in you link and Victoria looks pretty darn similar to Vancouver just like how Edmonton looks pretty similar to Calgary.
Yes, as others have mentioned…..
Teranet…. Vancouver has risen 40% more than Victoria since June 2005 according to Teranet. They both started at 100. Vancouver index is 288. Victoria is 209.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf
2010..2014 Victoria flat. (140 to 140)
2010..2014 Vancouver up 32%. (145 to 190)
A not-so-old blog post compared Victoria to Vancouver: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/10/15/october-15-market-update-and-the-vancouver-ratio/
There’s a pretty obvious detachment in HPI in 2010, but they still have correlating trends. As the clamps tighten on foreign buyers here and in China, those lines might become more convergent.
For one, there is the trend of billions upon billions of foreign dollars flooding the Vancouver market over a several-year period, driving house prices to the $1.5M to $5M range in many areas.
@guest_54440
Brilliant entry, we are in the same position and are happy to wait for a shift in the market. As you say, if not this year then next and if never… well we have other options.
Victoria and Vancouver and Toronto at one time had prices very close to each other. Vancouver and Toronto moved to another realm in the past 15 to 20 years leaving Victoria behind. Vancouver is almost double Victoria now.
I do not agree… I think the two start to move back to each other in the next 10 years.
I think almost everyone will agree that the Victoria housing market is closely tied to the Vancouver market. If you disagree, show some evidence where the trends in the two markets have diverged.
There’s that, but also the dynamic of the slowdown itself. No doubt interest rates are having an effect along with B20, but the real issue on the domestic front IMO, is credit exhaustion.
This was already becoming apparent before the bulk of the rate hikes and B20, when dollar volumes started dropping off in the larger metro regions. As Charlie points out, the RE market depends on credit and people’s ability to manage that credit. If one or both falters, the market inevitably consolidates. Right now, mortgage credit growth continues to decline precipitously as speculators leave the market and FTBs become increasingly unwilling or unable to pay the prices sellers demand. If it persists and real fear and recession take hold, then the market could overcorrect – which for some markets in Canada, could be quite a terrifying ride down.
I am giving you Bears a break. While Hawk is away I will keep quiet….Enjoy the peace.
Only responding because my name was mentioned.
Jobs, people perception of the their future and credit Charlie….
Leo the bigger and better things for you are only starting.
Does it? Or is that just more reassuring nonsense bears like to tell themselves?
Bear here… we are eagerly awaiting spring and all it has to bring. Aiming to buy this summer but will wait and see what happens to prices- we are not going to let up much on our ‘wants’ and I figure we’ve made it this far by not buying yet in this housing cycle that we won’t be jumping ship and over-paying now. We are expecting prices to decline this year. If they don’t, we will be looking at buying in 2020.
I know it’s been assumed that first time buyers like us are pissed at the stress test but my actual feelings are that it was a great idea. We were never going to spend our 2016/2017 pre-approval amount on a home (at one point we were approved for over 7 times our annual income, yikes). The stress test has reduced our buying power by 200k and we are totally cool with that. I’m happy that my competition has also had their purchasing power scaled back.
I believe this year the most curious part of our market will be psychology… the buyers like us that are left are proud we didn’t FOMO buy. I’m not even attending open houses yet because the price I’m going to offer on a place is so far away from the list price I don’t want to waste my time offending the sellers. But I will be making offers, if those houses sit and sit and get relisted or if a motivated seller comes out of the gates with a reasonable list price to begin with to beat their competition as inventory increases. The psychology for me is that this is going to be a very fun and positive year for my family & house hunting which is a stark contrast to the last 3 years. We will not feel rushed to buy, we will not be bracing for any more bidding wars, and we can take more time to look around, compare, inspect, and negotiage. I don’t doubt that we are not alone. People say there’s all this pent up demand and the buyers will come rushing out of the hills if interest rates stay flat but I think there’s a lot more people like me who have waited this long so why not wait longer?
The psychology on the sellers’ side will be very interesting too. You’d have to be pretty daft to think the new assessments = today’s value, but a coworker of mine just told me their house is such a “deal” because it’s listed for less than its assessment this week (wow!) And I’ve noticed the same language in a few ads. A friend’s boomer-age parents listed their home in the fall (bought 30 years ago) and were deeply offended when there were no bites on their high asking price. No one attended the open house until 2 big price drops and then it was only 1 offer, and more hurt feelings that their retirement money was getting hacked away by the buyer’s lowball despite them selling for more than triple what they paid for the house. It’s this mentality, that sellers ‘deserve’ their huge equity gains of the last couple of years, that will be interesting to watch shift. Buyers ‘deserve’ houses they can afford to live in too.
Well Gwac, as a bear, I believe the single most influential variable that determines the ups and downs of any real estate market is credit, with first time buyer participation a close second.
Now now, don’t lump Hawks statements in with every bear on the site 😉
Vancouver’s market does affect Victoria pretty demonstrably. I was asked to move to Vancouver by my previous employer and it simply wasn’t financially an option. If it does become an option, a lot of people will prefer it to Victoria.
generous , they are
“According to the bears on this blog the Vancouver market has no effect on Victoria. Right Gwac?”
Sorry according to bears every place around the world that is going down has an negative effect on Victoria. So does money laundering, Saudi Arabia, US raising rates, Canada raising or lowering rates, Low inventory, high inventory, good economy, bad economy and a thousand other items.
Josh, thanks for the info; I am just rushing to get out the door to look at it before all the crowds show up.
1909 Duchess St lowered their price today by a gracious $95 or 0.00095%
Ks112,
The Victoria bulls do not care at all what happens in Vancouver because they do not live in Vancouver. According to the bears on this blog the Vancouver market has no effect on Victoria. Right Gwac?
LeoS Is there some way we could listen to the interview?
why hasn’t the bears pointed whats happening in the Vancouver market and that Victoria seems to follow in Vancouver’s footsteps with about a 6-8 months delay?
Just finished CFAX interview about the rental market. Followup article coming later this week.
The Silence of the Bears…
I think the bears should be pissed that the gov put the brakes on too soon. A price crash needs some overbuilding in the equation
That is the thing. We already made is through a flat 2018 ….if the spring is flat I just can’t see a huge correction. At that point we are into flat or maybe slightly down like 1 or 2% a year and inflation eating away at prices and affordability improving until the next run up.
Basically 2011-2014 all over again.
Introvert, the thought struck me that the difference between buying in 2017 and 2018 is like having to toss in a brand new car to the vendor for the same house. I have no idea what my point is other than that is a lot more many than the average person can save in a year.
Sheesh, seeing that inventory graph again makes my head hurt trying to guess what will happen this spring. The euphoria has left the market but man, that is low inventory.
I think the bears should be pissed that the gov put the brakes on too soon. A price crash needs some overbuilding in the equation…. I think the euphoria being gone will at least lead to better buying conditions. But if you want a deal you need to look at what everyone doesn’t want…
And don’t expect list prices to be lower either…
I am only starting on my first cup of coffee but I am trying to figure out why, when new listings outstrip sales in most years by a thousand that the inventory decreased from 2012 to 2018. All I can think of is that the “new” listings are not actually new and that in a number of cases the same listing has been counted as “new” multiple times. A couple of houses within a block of me have come up as new at least three or four times. (There simply cannot be all that many houses that are actually taken off the market altogether after an unsuccessful listing).
If I am right, then the new listing metric becomes of little value in my mind.
What am I missing since my brain is mostly engaged with my second cup of coffee?
2018 a stable year for Victoria real-estate despite government intervention; 2019 seen as the bellwether
The average price of single-family homes pushed slightly higher in 2018 to $908,727, or a 5.7% increase from 2017’s average of $859,871. The median price appreciated at a faster rate to $799,000 from $752,125.
https://victoria.citified.ca/news/2018-a-stable-year-for-victoria-real-estate-despite-government-intervention/