February Market Summary

This post is 2 years old. The data and my views may have since evolved.

The market in February continued on much the same trajectory as January, with a frantic sales pace constrained by low inventory, rising prices in every property type, and an extremely high proportion of sales going in bidding wars.   Inventory remained at record lows for the time of year, down another 36% from last February’s already very low level, while sales remained 20% above the 10 year average.

With the lack of inventory sales reflect new listings more than actual demand, with anything priced even remotely close to market value selling quickly.

Despite murmurs in Toronto and Vancouver of a slowdown, it’s not something that has been visible here.  Perhaps there are a couple fewer bidders on offer night, but the rate of over-ask sales hardly changed from January.  61% of condos went for over ask – a small drop from January’s rate – while 70% of detached properties did the same.  Remember that in a normal market we should only have about 5 to 10% of properties going in bidding wars.

To get out of this frenzied market, we need either twice the inventory or half the sales from current levels.  Two months of inventory is about the minimum level where the market returns to some sence of normalcy, bidding wars subside, and buyers have a chance to make a more considered decision.  Prices don’t generally stop increasing until about 6 months of inventory.  Looking at seasonally adjusted inventory, we are at slightly above the levels of where we were late last year, but not very much.  Not enough movement to point to any relief in the market, and some techniques like seasonal adjustment will get a little wonky with no base level listings to sell into.

January data on price to assessed value was a bit shaky due to the updated assessments and low sales keeping the samples small.  February’s values are a lot more robust, and confirmed the large increases we saw early in the year with additional jumps for townhouses and condos.

Prices of course kept moving up at a steep rate as well.

The market temperature guage remains pinned.  In fact market conditions are the tightest ever, even edging out last March slightly.

Rates will almost certainly be hiked by at least 25bps tomorrow morning.  Despite the uncertainties from the Ukraine situation, I think the Bank of Canada wants to at least fire a shot across the bow of market participants that are displaying irrational exuberance.  However unless it hits consumer confidence, don’t expect any immediate large impacts.  There is currently a 1% gap between fixed and variable rates, which means it would take 4 rate hikes just to bring variable rates in line with where fixed rates already are.   And while about half of borrowers are choosing variable rates these days, we have to remember that the other half has been happily buying at fixed rates despite the substantial increase in the last 12 months.  To turn the market, we need market sentiment to sour.  A small bump in rates isn’t enough, but it’s possible that a bump in rates combined with geopolitical turmoil and upcoming government interventions will do it.

Meanwhile on the fixed rates front, the bond market has taken a dive in recent days, which has removed further upward pressure on those rates.  It’s quite possible that we’ll move sideways for a while or even that fixed rates will drop again.  Looking at past reversals of the market, market conditions and prices can change trajectory quickly, but it’s still measured in months, not days or weeks.  Let’s keep watching.

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Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 7, 2022 6:10 pm

Also while Surrey is about 32 kilometers from Vancouver, Victoria is like 110 kilometers from Vancouver.

patriotz
patriotz
March 7, 2022 5:44 pm

The Surrey comparison makes no sense to me. It’s 32+km inland from downtown Vancouver.

Metro Vancouver has about six times the population of metro Victoria. Of course the suburbs are going to extend farther out. The City of Vancouver itself has had more than metro Victoria’s present population since the 1960’s.

One amenity Surrey does have is rapid transit to downtown.

Barrister
Barrister
March 7, 2022 5:41 pm

Serious Question> Is inflation going to have more of an impact than increased mortgage rates on slowing the increase of housing prices.

Kenny G
Kenny G
March 7, 2022 4:56 pm

There’s an unacknowledged socio-economic prejudice in assumptions about the Westshore that could use some reflection.
,
,
If you’ve ever been to a youth hockey or more so lacrosse game against JDF you would notice a definite difference in character.

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 7, 2022 3:53 pm

Marko, you live in Songhees. If you lived in Vic West then it would be a VW bus driving 15 K under the speed limit with the driver stoned out of their mind going to buy more big bag cheezies from the Super Store.

up-and-coming
up-and-coming
March 7, 2022 3:49 pm

“In all fairness, if I am being tailgated by a Dodge Ram the odds are it is in Langford, not Oak Bay.”

That’s fair and I think we’ve all had that unfortunate experience, but Dodge Rams are usually parked around construction sites and I don’t see a lot of construction in Oak Bay. Not to say the Westshore doesn’t have a lot of pickup trucks, but the Dodge Ram construction bros from around the CRD make their way out to the Westshore to get paid, not Oak Bay.

Dr Seuss
Dr Seuss
March 7, 2022 3:27 pm

Marko – the macho truck behaviour is real. Not going to deny that!

Marko Juras
March 7, 2022 3:21 pm

keep embarrassing themselves when they make Langford jokes.

In all fairness, if I am being tailgated by a Dodge Ram the odds are it is in Langford, not Oak Bay. For disclosure, I live in Vic West. Have zero desire to live behind a white picket fence in Oak Bay.

Bluesman
Bluesman
March 7, 2022 3:08 pm

Well Barrister maybe you or some friends would be interested in purchasing some of my impractical mahogany furniture. I can’t seem to find anyone interested in my 12 mahogany dining table and 8ft pier glass mirror. Seems they’re not so trendy these days. They sit unloved in my garage and are looking for a spacious home
In all seriousness I do wish I had the room for them.

up-and-coming
up-and-coming
March 7, 2022 2:39 pm

“There’s an unacknowledged socio-economic prejudice in assumptions about the Westshore that could use some reflection.”

The days of Victoria and Oak Bay residents casting snobby judgement on the Westshore should be coming to an end, but there are always a few ego diseased dinosaurs that hold out and keep embarrassing themselves when they make Langford jokes. Funny but uncomfortable story, between Victoria and Langford one municipality is getting a Tesla dealership and the other is getting a Walmart.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 7, 2022 2:28 pm

One of my new neighbours asked me to put a “save the trees at 902 Foul Bay Rd.” signs up.

IMHO, We do need to protect our little remaining old-growth forest, but the real concern of those against 902 Foul Bay project is not about the trees.

As State by the mayor, “Something that is not really understood is if Aryze wanted to, they could cut down all those trees and build four, single-family homes without having to come to council, without any process at all”.

So if they come to our door, I would say “As the proposed townhome project would save more trees than building SFHs on 902 Foul Bay, I don’t want to put a “fake” sign up”

Dr Seuss
Dr Seuss
March 7, 2022 2:21 pm

I’m really appreciating the positive comments about the Westshore. Just so tired of the constant negativity among Victorians!

The Surrey comparison makes no sense to me. It’s 32+km inland from downtown Vancouver. The Westshore is like North Vancouver in terms of distance from downtown, ocean access, traffic and lifestyle. Surrey is like living in Swartz Bay in terms of distance and I don’t hear anyone being negative about Saanich. There’s an unacknowledged socio-economic prejudice in assumptions about the Westshore that could use some reflection.

The Westshore is becoming less and less a car culture. Maybe a walk to get ice cream isn’t as nice, but it’s so easy to go for a walk in nature. There are great trails and parks everywhere!

Umm..really
Umm..really
March 7, 2022 1:56 pm

One of my new neighbours asked me to put a “save the trees at 902 Foul Bay Rd.” signs up. They were confused when I said no, and they asked why, while trying to infer that I didn’t care about the environment. My response of there is no tree shortage in Canada, BC or Victoria, but there seems to be housing shortage didn’t go over well with him. He seemed to get upset for some reason. It just surprises me how vested people get in imposing their views sometimes. I guess maybe I shouldn’t have been laughing. There I go making more friends again…lol..

caveat emptor
caveat emptor
March 7, 2022 1:49 pm

They do have nice access to the Goose and Thetis Lake but I couldn’t handle the traffic which is only going to get worse.

Agreed – that is the main drawback. I actually like a lot of things that Langford is doing, but the result is certain areas that seem to have worse traffic than downtown.

2wheels
2wheels
March 7, 2022 12:52 pm

I’m interested to see what 1215 basil goes for. The realtor has really been having some fun with that listing over the past few weeks.

Barrister
Barrister
March 7, 2022 12:19 pm

Whoever: I live in a museum and it is great. Solid Oak floors, mahogany doors and trim. high ceilings with spacious rooms, beautiful carved library. But I can really appreciate that a modern 600 sq foot condo is much better in a lot of ways.

Kenny G
Kenny G
March 7, 2022 12:15 pm

I was just remembering that I dealt with one of the parties that sold that gravel pit about 15 years ago, if I told you what they sold it for you would be shocked at how low it was.

Kenny G
Kenny G
March 7, 2022 12:08 pm

“and walking down a super busy one way in/out road, crossing a highway, walking through an industrial zone to get to ice cream is equivalent, I don’t know about that.”



You about nailed it, the Westshore is a car culture. A lot of those subdivisions have small lots and tenants which makes for cars parked everywhere. They do have nice access to the Goose and Thetis Lake but I couldn’t handle the traffic which is only going to get worse.

SP
SP
March 7, 2022 11:18 am

People forgot another key factor to make Oak Bay so “desirable” is these schools both public and private. The chance for people who spend $50-80k/y for their both kids to SMUS or GNS and live in Westshore is low. The chance for these people live on a street with loaded rental properties is also low. There are also some families in other school catchments trying hard to get their kids into Willows School, this may be the part of reasons why the east of Foul Bay Rd within Willows catchment is way over-valued by compared to the west of Foul Bay Rd.

Marko Juras
March 7, 2022 10:41 am

I am a fan of Langford. I think Stew is the best mayor by a long margin in the CRD. Props to Langford for pulling through and providing housing while the rest of the municipalities drag their feet. However, if you think taking your kids on a Saturday afternoon stroll to grab ice cream in South Oak Bay then taking your kids and dog up to Anderson Hill is comparable to living in a new development in Langford like South Point and walking down a super busy one way in/out road, crossing a highway, walking through an industrial zone to get to ice cream is equivalent, I don’t know about that.

No blame on Langford or Stew or anyone, I think they are doing a great job overall within the constraints, but reality is we are out of land and what he left to develop is kind of crap. It isn’t a nice flat grid like may parts of Fairfield/Oak Bay/Oaklands. Those days are gone.

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 7, 2022 10:13 am

Exactly Totoro. The same with Langford as it used to be an area of 1970’s style homes on septic with a race track too.

Neighborhoods that are close to work , but not too close, should command higher prices. If you work downtown then Oak Bay would be appealing because of the shorter commute. Yet far enough away so that you don’t have have the social problems associated with the downtown area. Hence the idiom of location, location, location.

But does that still hold true today with people choosing to live and work in the Westshore, retire there, or work from home? The Westshore is now an alternative that I think more people are considering today than they did say 25 years ago. Indirectly one could look at the total prices as a reflection of the trend when it comes to starter homes. One gets to live in a newer home in a newer neighborhood for a similar price as living in a starter home in Oak Bay. I can’t recollect this being the case in the past.

If you don’t have to commute to the downtown core then the Westshore has advantages over Oak Bay.

millenialhomeownerx2
millenialhomeownerx2
March 7, 2022 9:58 am

Can you plot interest rates on the last chart?

patriotz
patriotz
March 7, 2022 5:47 am

Maybe that’s one reason why the Westshore is one of the faster growing communities in Canada while Oak Bay is stagnate.

I think it has a lot more to do with Westshore being where the vacant land is. Once upon a time Oak Bay was where the vacant land was. Same is true for the fringes of any metro.

Let us not forget Surrey, which is on its way to becoming BC’s largest city. Nobody from the mayor on down pretends it’s because of the amenities.

totoro
totoro
March 6, 2022 10:48 pm

OB is pretty nice. It gets an A-plus rating on safety (47% less likely to be a victim of crime than average in Canada) and amenities which are both important to me. As far as a long past of prestige, I don’t know it is that long. Used to be a racetrack where Carnarvon Park is until 1950 and the rest of Oak Bay was more of a vacation place than a municipality that morphed into a suburb and somehow start to appreciate faster than other places.

James Soper
James Soper
March 6, 2022 10:15 pm

Oak Bay is desirable because of its long past of being a prestigious area for those with wealth

It was a middle class street car suburb.

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 6, 2022 9:08 pm

A lot of the difference in the Bays is historic. Oak Bay is desirable because of its long past of being a prestigious area for those with wealth.

Oak Bay’s past performance as being one of the more expensive and premier neighborhoods is what sells it today for new buyers wanting wealth security and that’s why it retains high land prices relative to similar sized lots in other neighborhoods that are just a few minutes drive away.

It’s all about how we perceive risk as Oak Bay is perceived to be less risky to own than say Cadboro Bay or Royal Bay because of its past performance.

But Oak Bay has old and outdated housing, that would have been considered custom 50 or 75 years ago, but today you really have to put the blinders on to consider them anywhere near the quality and energy efficiency of new housing.

When it comes down to the number or outstanding beautiful homes that one might consider mansions, the Westshore beats out Oak Bay. What the Westshore doesn’t have is the track record of retaining value during past economic downturns. But we never had a Westshore like it is today either. In the past the Westshore was mostly 1970’s style homes on septic fields with very little shopping or commerce. That’s not the Westshore of today. I’m overwhelmed with how everything is so new in the Westshore. The shopping, the schools, cinemas, the parks, the roads, tree lined streets, the housing.

In an economic downturn it is the land prices that tumble and I wonder what would happen to Oak Bay when most of their home values are made up of the land component? Could Oak Bay property values fall more in their dollar amounts than the Westshore? For example, a ten percent market decline on a $600,000 lot versus a 1.4 million dollar lot?

I would say that if you still think of the Westshore as being a suburb of Victoria you may be deluding yourself. The Westshore is like an entirely different city to Victoria. Where you can live, work and play without ever having to come into Victoria. Maybe that’s one reason why the Westshore is one of the faster growing communities in Canada while Oak Bay is stagnate.

I like museums. I just wouldn’t want to live in one.

Introvert
Introvert
March 6, 2022 6:18 pm

Royal Bay vs Oak Bay is no contest

Battle of the Bays!

Royal Bay
Oak Bay
Cadboro Bay
Cordova Bay
Brentwood Bay
Mill Bay

Marko Juras
March 6, 2022 5:39 pm

I’ve always been a huge fan of Royal Bay, but when my clients were buying homes 5 years ago for 600k+GST, not $1.45-$1.55 million. I even bought building lots off Gablecraft on Dunlin when no one else would touch them. On the other hand, I’ve always thought Oak Bay was overvalued having grown up in the Oaklands area. Thought there being 200k premium over Oaklands over a 5 minute drive seems insane.

That being said even as a fan of Royal Bay and believer of Oak Bay being a little overblown in desirability any day I am buying an older livable house on Linkleas, Byng, etc., in South Oak Bay for 1.5 over Royal Bay over 1.5. Not sure how much time you’ve spent in South Oak Bay but it is pretty damn nice. Royal Bay is awesome for what it is (an alternative to the Westhills) and that was a pitch to many of my clients I guided into pre-sale GableCraft home over a Westhill pre-sale. However, Royal Bay vs Oak Bay is no contest, imo. Get me into a South Oak Bay bungalow and chip away at kitchen/bathroom/etc. projects. If Royal Bay was still a million vs 1.5, different story but it is essentially 1.5 vs 1.5.

totoro
totoro
March 6, 2022 3:14 pm

I also don’t understand why Oak Bay is so over-valued given sea level rise mapping says most of it will end up underwater.

I’m sure Royal Bay is nice to live in but that is untrue – the vast majority of Oak Bay is well above the predicted sea level rise. Inner harbour, not so much.
https://www.crd.bc.ca/docs/default-source/climate-action-pdf/reports/2020-sea-level-mapping-project/coastal-flood-inundation-mapping-project-summary.pdf

Also, the entire Royal Bay development has an elevated earthquake amplification risk. Not sure how much the construction compensates for this.
http://www.llbc.leg.bc.ca/public/pubdocs/bcdocs2011/339406/Composite%20Relative%20Earthquake%20Hazard.pdf

Umm..really
Umm..really
March 6, 2022 2:02 pm

According to a poll from the Angus Reid Institute released this week, 53 per cent of respondents say their finances are being overtaken by the rising costs of almost every staple of daily life, from gasoline to groceries to housing.

From: https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-majority-of-canadians-say-they-can-no-longer-keep-up-with-inflation

How can that be? With 70% of Canadians owning homes and taking about their equity gains and how weathly they are; how can they be having trouble at the same time? They should just pull more from their HELOCs and buy another house or if they are tapped for equity, get it from their parents HELOC and then buy another house. Just get in, again, they can’t let you or this fail, interest rates can’t go up, and real estate must always go up.

Dr Seuss
Dr Seuss
March 6, 2022 1:44 pm

“From a long term perspective, personally I still believe location is the most important factor for RE around Victoria, so I’d prefer an older house in GH than these new builds in Royal Bay. Or older house with huge lot around Royal Bay from a future rezoning perspective.”

The nice thing about options is that people can choose what they prefer. At the same time, it’s worth question what people have typically considered valuable as cities and their affordability levels change.

Royal Bay is an excellent location by the ocean and has virtually everything else a person needs in close proximity (and even more so once the neighbourhood is finished). The houses don’t have asbestos or mould and they’re seismically sound, the layouts are great, energy efficiency is great, most of the lots are 4,500ft2 or bigger and don’t require excessive gardening, there’s underground servicing, beautiful walking paths and green space, and amazing stormwater drainage. Something else that gives me peace of mind is that I won’t be at ground zero for airborne toxic material release from older homes after a major earthquake.

Also there’s very little need to go downtown, and often little desire. As someone who relocated here recently, I don’t understand the fixation on downtown and nearby neighbourhoods. I also don’t understand why Oak Bay is so over-valued given sea level rise mapping says most of it will end up underwater.

James Soper
James Soper
March 6, 2022 11:42 am

>Not every recession is led by a 50% rise in crude.
But every 50% rise in crude has led a recession

This time is different, can’t you see the soft landing they engineered in 2019?

Garden Suitor
Garden Suitor
March 6, 2022 10:26 am

I would also like the patios to stay downtown. It is tough to get a patio table for a drink/meal on a nice day. More patio capacity at the expense of some parking space is a no brainer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/temporary-patios-ending-1.6373971

SP
SP
March 6, 2022 9:59 am

From a long term perspective, personally I still believe location is the most important factor for RE around Victoria, so I’d prefer an older house in GH than these new builds in Royal Bay. Or older house with huge lot around Royal Bay from a future rezoning perspective.

Umm..really
Umm..really
March 6, 2022 9:49 am

Anyone know why 1726 Stanley has been on the market for 40 days?

The price…..

Introvert
Introvert
March 6, 2022 8:46 am

It looks, to my untrained eye, like at least two investors are cashing out in the Lambrick Park sub area of Gordon Head:

1680 Teakwood Rd
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24104875/1680-teakwood-rd-saanich-lambrick-park

4031 Osgoode Pl
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24094948/4031-osgoode-pl-saanich-lambrick-park

Introvert
Introvert
March 6, 2022 8:39 am

Thanks for all the kitchen reno info, everyone. I’ve taken notes.

Not planning on redoing my kitchen anytime soon; just wanted some ballpark numbers.

totoro
totoro
March 5, 2022 11:00 pm

Pretty happy with my Ikea kitchen seven years later. Agree wood cabinets would be nicer, but it still looks great and is very functional. Ikea has smart design so I have plenty of storage and Ikan took care of all the measuring, ordering and install. We did run into Ikea stock shortages last year when we renovated another kitchen so you’d need to check that.

QT
QT
March 5, 2022 9:37 pm

So did people buying Royal bay for $1.5M factor in $2/L gas?

How much is it for an old house in GH?

The worst offending Hummer is 16.5L/100KM city driving, so round trip commuting from Royal Bay to downtown Victoria and back at $2 gas would be $11.88 per day or $2970 per year for commuting. Thus a saving of $300K in housing cost would buy you over 100 years of fuel (inflation and interests not factored in).

QT
QT
March 5, 2022 9:24 pm

Introvert,

It’s depends on the finish and size of your kitchen (moving services could add up quite a bit more to the price), but I think custom cabinets are priced pretty close to IKAN MDF as I priced it. Lowes were considerably priced lower than both IKAN and custom but you have to install it yourself or find an independence installer.

Last year I renoed my bathrooms, closets, U shape kitchen and pantry with stainless steel lazy Susan, and stainless steel/wood pullouts. 3 baths cabinets, 2 walk in closets, and a regular closet all were custom plywood/maple hardwood. The pantry and kitchen counter tops are butterfly blue granite to the floor (waterfall) that is extra wide (44″ wide) at the cook top/sitting area, and the bath counter tops are white quartz. That came in at $47K, and appliances is another $18K before tax. (I installed my own stainless steel appliances, fridge, double wall oven, induction cook top, island range hood, dishwasher, farmhouse sink, and garburator.)

So, I dare say $20-25K you might get into decent custom hardwood cabinets territory instead of IKAN MDF.

VictoriaBound
VictoriaBound
March 5, 2022 9:20 pm

Anyone know why 1726 Stanley has been on the market for 40 days?

patriotz
patriotz
March 5, 2022 7:06 pm

as strata homes have become the predominant dwelling type for inner city living

But that’s mainly because they’ve displaced purpose built rentals. More a change in tenure than a change in dwelling type. Also note that elsewhere in Canada non-strata townhomes and duplexes are common, but not in BC for some reason.

You’re right of course my generation is biased, never owned anything but SFH and that was doable back then.

Bluesman
Bluesman
March 5, 2022 5:28 pm

Silktree Projects

Bluesman
Bluesman
March 5, 2022 5:28 pm

Introvert – there are other options than IKAN. We did did a kitchen reno (MDF like ikea materials) just in the last couple months. 12’X15′ of space. U shaped, no island. Cost INCLUDING install was $9500. This was $2,000 more than the IKEA kitchen had priced out and were going to order (we’d have had to pay for installation or I’d have had to do it myself, yeah, no thanks). Quartz countertops $5,000, Sink and faucet $1,500. So all in about $16,000. Keep in mind, IKAN makes their money mostly on the installation. Silktree Products.

totoro
totoro
March 5, 2022 4:38 pm

Our Ikea kitchen reno through IKAN was around $20,000. U-shape with lots of cupboards, lazy-susan, pantry and pull-outs including a recycling station – medium sized.

Barrister
Barrister
March 5, 2022 3:30 pm

Introvert” If you are actually redoing your own kitchen and want quality at a fair price I can recommend someone to you.

Introvert
Introvert
March 5, 2022 3:04 pm

Some have had quick clean ups done (paint, Ikea kitchens and bath fitter).

Say, does anyone know what a typical Ikea kitchen reno (done by IKAN or whoever) would cost, ballpark?

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 5, 2022 2:48 pm

Interesting perspective Patriotz, about strata homes and houses. I wonder if that speaks more about about a person’s generation. Strata homes are relatively new concept in real estate. As they were introduced to Canadians in the early 1970’s and not well received at the time as there was no physical land to them.

But after 50 years, two generations have grown up with them. I wonder if your statement may have mellowed over the last few decades as strata homes have become the predominant dwelling type for inner city living.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 5, 2022 1:24 pm

yes 1st hand (via the parents of the investor). Don’t trust and never post 3rd party stories.

totoro
totoro
March 5, 2022 1:10 pm

Do you have first-hand knowledge? I’m always skeptical of third-party stories about what is going on in the mind of a buyer.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 5, 2022 1:04 pm

1854 Emery Pl – $1.1M. I guess “There are cracks in the foundation that may have caused the house in the settlement. The property is for sale on AS IS WHERE IS bases.” didn’t scare the new owners off. Hopefully they got a contractor and quote to do any remediation.

The word came back that the house was bought by an investor from Vancouver with island root and deep pocket. No plan for remediation and the house will remain vacant for now. Note they already have bought at least two other properties here, for family and guests visit/vacation only. Guess they can afford to pay spec taxes, but those houses are gone from the locals who live and work here.

Frank
Frank
March 5, 2022 12:53 pm

Are the high gas prices going to alter my driving habits? A bit. Are high gas prices going to alter my buying habits? Definitely. Hard to give up the addiction.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 5, 2022 12:46 pm

I imagine people from surrounding munis skew toward the latter more so than people from the CoV.

Unfuntunely I have to agree with you, although we (live close to but not in the CoV) want/like all the things you want (and put in much more miles on our E-bikes than our 18yr old car).

rush4life
rush4life
March 5, 2022 12:19 pm

Jim Bianco on twitter:

Not every recession is led by a 50% rise in crude.

But every 50% rise in crude has led a recession.

[imgcomment image[/img]

patriotz
patriotz
March 5, 2022 9:48 am

You are comparing a 1949 house to a brand new concrete condo with ocean views.

Depends on one’s tastes of course, but I would say most Canadians would consider just about any condo to be inferior to a house, regardless of date built or views. Particularly if they have children.

If someone wants to pay $1mil+ for a condo they’re welcome to do it though.

patriotz
patriotz
March 5, 2022 9:44 am

Hmm, starting to see a few places I offered or (considered offering) on last year now being listed for $300 to $400k more than what they sold for just a short time ago.

That’s a flip and gains are taxable as business income. Even if the seller has lived in it.

Marko Juras
March 5, 2022 8:46 am

An 850sft condo under construction is sold for over $1m. That 1888sft house not far away on a 8000ft lot is really a good deal Unless I missed something.

You are comparing a 1949 house to a brand new concrete condo with ocean views. You can buy in the adjacent condo building to this one for less than half the price and more square footage -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24082673/302-929-esquimalt-rd-esquimalt-old-esquimalt

As I’ve talked about many times on HHV, the biggest issue I see on the front-line with downsizers is they want to downsize from their dated house to a new or newer ocean view condo and bank a substantial amount of cash. No one ever says I’ll be happy to downsize from the 1970/80s original Broadmead/Gordon Head/etc home to a 1970s condo. In that case you could bank a lot of cash.

Umm..really
Umm..really
March 5, 2022 8:13 am

Hmm, starting to see a few places I offered or (considered offering) on last year now being listed for $300 to $400k more than what they sold for just a short time ago. Looks like most them have had little work done and some appear to have been vacant. Some have had quick clean ups done (paint, Ikea kitchens and bath fitter).

Frank
Frank
March 5, 2022 3:18 am

Article in Times Colonist stated industrial land going for $400 sq. ft. doesn’t seem right. $4.000,000 for a 10,000 sq. ft. piece of land is ridiculous. Maybe $400 sq. meter?

Garden Suitor
Garden Suitor
March 4, 2022 8:39 pm

Amalgamation will be one of the solutions for that

Amalgamation is how Toronto ended up with Rob Ford.

As a City of Victoria resident, I worry about the priorities of the population of surrounding municipalities. I want more walkability, pedestrian spaces, bike infrastructure, and homes for people in Victoria proper. I do not want increased car capacity on most Victoria roads nor do I want more parking spaces. I imagine people from surrounding munis skew toward the latter more so than people from the CoV.

CrazyTime
CrazyTime
March 4, 2022 4:06 pm

An 850sft condo under construction is sold for over $1m. That 1888sft house not far away on a 8000ft lot is really a good deal 🙂 Unless I missed something.

HouseMarket.png
Sidekick
Sidekick
March 4, 2022 2:33 pm

Why did you need to go to council? Variances?

Not technically possible to build a house on a 30′-wide lot without variances. 1 story max with 15′ side setbacks means you can’t hit the minimum allowed square footage. It ended up being an 1800sq.ft. house in the end and very livable.

totoro
totoro
March 4, 2022 2:04 pm

CCA is often not worth paying recapture later if you have a mortgage imo. Also CCA applies to the building only and only a small percentage is claimed. For me the hassle created in the future is not worth it and I don’t want to leave any messy things for our kids to deal with.

patriotz
patriotz
March 4, 2022 2:00 pm

Claiming CCA on a suite removes it from the principal residence exemption.

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
March 4, 2022 1:59 pm

Whoever: Are you Just Jack? Because if you are, I have really missed your sense of humor on here.

I don’t claim the CCA because then I would have to pay Capital Gains when I sell.

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 4, 2022 1:52 pm

Just out of curiosity why are you not writing off CCA? I understand that it is highly likely that you will have to pay that back when you sell sometime in the future but won’t inflation be an offsetting factor?

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 4, 2022 1:34 pm

I understand the nostalgic appeal of an older home. But a new generation of buyers are not likely to have that same nostalgia that you have to own a home like you grew up living in or what your grand-parents may have had.

New infill housing in Oak Bay is currently in architectural contrast with the neighborhood but as more contemporary dwellings are constructed, it’s the older homes that will become the ones that will look odd to prospective purchasers. Tastes change with every generation and the next generation of buyers likely grew up in homes built in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

An odd thing about Oak Bay is that there are not many 1980’s and 1990’s built homes. So there is a gap in the neighborhoods that isn’t being filled by buyers as the difference is generally some $500,000 to $700,000. Those who have an older homes but with growing families and are constrained by income may opt to leave Oak Bay to find suitable affordable housing. So I doubt if Oak Bay will have much of an increase in population over the next decade despite it transitioning to modern homes.

For those growing families that are in their prime earning years, Oak Bay may become less desirable as there is very little choice of housing that meets their needs and budget. In my opinion, it would be a disaster if Oak Bay planners followed what Victoria City has done by building condominiums as this would not fill the gap in buyers. On the other hand, low rise townhouses might be an alternative that could keep people in the community.

The density of Victoria proper is about 4,700 people per square kilometer. While Oak Bay is around 1,700. So I think Oak Bay could add town homes without lowering the quaintness of the community. I don’t think many of us would like to see Oak Bay become an extension of downtown Victoria.

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
March 4, 2022 1:11 pm

I see what you mean Totoro. With an in-law suite (not legal); reporting to CRA each year I’ve always broken down the size percentage of the suite. So, basically, if the total sq ft of the house is 2400 SQ Ft. & the suite portion is 800 Sq Ft. then my costs
would then be 66.66% of shared maintenance, utilities etc. but no write off for CCA.

Maggie
Maggie
March 4, 2022 1:07 pm

Without a doubt my least favourite property was a new glass and concrete condo. Never felt at home. Too white and sterile and hospital like. I suspect some of these contemporary houses have the same aura. Not for me. But everyone is different

+1 – I’ve never understood why all new builds have to be some permutation of white, grey and beige. It’s the lowest common denominator of blandness, I suppose. I actually heard neighbours complaining when a nearby house was painted a berry red colour, almost as if their conformity was under attack.

totoro
totoro
March 4, 2022 12:18 pm

If your Oak Bay home is pre 1960’s and under 2,000 square feet then the majority of the value is most likely in the land.

Yes, agree and looking at the list of tear downs I also agree has recently been new buyers purchasing small old homes. Still, the pace of change is pretty slow. I am a fan of older homes myself and willing to put the time and money in to maintain and renovate and extend the lifespan as long as possible. Not sure how big that cohort is but I don’t know any longer term owners planning to tear down and rebuild character homes – not to say there are not some – but most are new purchasers who can afford to do this and have no memories made in the home yet.

totoro
totoro
March 4, 2022 12:12 pm

Thanks Totoro. I didn’t know on the purchase and selling of a property with a legal suite that there was a price breakdown of the two.

Yes, there is a set calculation based on square footage.

Sidekick
Sidekick
March 4, 2022 12:01 pm

Oak Bay is working on infill housing policies but I’d say it is moving along at a snail’s pace. I filled in the OB survey and said that the only impediment to infill should be health and safety. Not sure that the majority of the community is on board for this…

I built on a 30′ wide lot in Oak Bay (basically infill) and people came from far and wide to tell me how I would destroy the neighbourhood. Even with all the immediate neighbours on-side, it still only passed 5-4.

Some of my family are hard-core Oak Bay Nimby thumpers. I don’t see OB changing policy any time soon and I see OB going provincially Conservative if the province tries to force changes.

Gosig Mus
Gosig Mus
March 4, 2022 11:28 am

“ Oak Bay is in transition from the older character style homes to modern contemporary. And in my opinion, this is what most people want today. They want the location and a modern home.”

You could be right. Sadly.

I have owned quite a few properties over the years and personally have felt much more at home in a previous 1930 and present 1910 home with the character that only 10 layers of paint, creaking wood floors and unique geometry that the gentle settling of the foundation brings. Moreso, these are homes that I have put a huge amount of sweat equity into. I know them inside out. They are personal.

Without a doubt my least favourite property was a new glass and concrete condo. Never felt at home. Too white and sterile and hospital like.
I suspect some of these contemporary houses have the same aura.

Not for me. But everyone is different

Introvert
Introvert
March 4, 2022 10:53 am

I don’t think there’s a mandated format but they seem to take similar approaches

Oak Bay https://www.oakbay.ca/sites/default/files/housing-needs-report.pdf

I think I’ve ascertained Oak Bay’s housing-need formula:

Population growth (any interval within the past 50 years): ~0%

Projected housing need: ~0%

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 4, 2022 10:51 am

If your Oak Bay home is pre 1960’s and under 2,000 square feet then the majority of the value is most likely in the land. That describes a lot of Oak Bay homes. Homes that are prime for redevelopment within the next decade. The homes that are going to be built will be large modern designed houses that will max out on the allowable floor space ratio.

Oak Bay is in transition from the older character style homes to modern contemporary. And in my opinion, this is what most people want today. They want the location and a modern home.

The profit margin for a new builds in Oak Bay is enough to attract developers to buy and hold land for a few years until it becomes economically feasible to redevelop the land. That makes Oak Properties under 1.6 million today attractive to developers. And that’s about half the properties that are listed for sale in Oak Bay today.

If you look at the new builds today. Most were bought with older character homes less than five years ago. The speed of the transition being dependent on how quickly prices for land rises in the neighborhoods. That’s why I expect the character of Oak Bay to change significantly in the next decade from the pre 1960’s homes to modern homes. This last bump in home prices has likely accelerated that transition as it has made re-development more economically feasible sooner.

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
March 4, 2022 10:39 am

Thanks Totoro. I didn’t know on the purchase and selling of a property with a legal suite that there was a price breakdown of the two.

totoro
totoro
March 4, 2022 10:15 am

Federally, one would pay the capital gains on the rented address but not on the one owner occupied. Then later on, the realtors could get their 6% and; 2% on both!!
This is already the case with a home with a legal suite.

on the purchase & selling of the property, there would be a price breakdown of the two
Legal suite already affects value and as it cannot be sold as a separate legal interest without strata compliance not sure that this is helpful or fair? We have legal suites and receive separate water/sewer and garbage bills from the city so this charge is already in place and our assessment already reflects an increased value due to the legalized suite.

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
March 4, 2022 10:05 am

I wonder, if the government will ever make legal suites have their own address, such as 1102 Smith St., #1 and #2 or A & B? And maybe on the purchase & selling of the property, there would be a price breakdown of the two. Not much left for tax grabs, so this could be an excellent way. Federally, one would pay the capital gains on the rented address but not on the one owner occupied. A few more government jobs could be added for the extra administration…..so that would be a real plus. Then later on, the realtors could get their 6% & 2% on both!!

Patrick
Patrick
March 4, 2022 9:48 am

I’ve never understood this. Most MLS ads read like a grade three school assignment. It’s the first impression of your home, it’s your elevator pitch, it’s going to be read by hundreds if not thousands of prospective buyers. So why can’t a realtor take the time to properly write out a few sentences?

Right. Or they post a listing price with one too few/many zeros, so the house price is off by 10X. Or they have a listing pic showing two houses, and you need to guess which is the one being sold.

totoro
totoro
March 4, 2022 9:16 am

since that’s the only major one that has come their way.

What about the 43-home four story Bowker collection that replaced an old one story commercial building (I think it was four units?) on the corner of Bowker and Cadboro Bay (plus adjacent SFHs). Also the redevelopment of the home on the corner of Estevan and Cadboro Bay next to Pure Vanilla into townhomes?

up-and-coming
up-and-coming
March 4, 2022 8:51 am

“Also, I don’t quite get how little effort some realtors put in, they can’t even get the description proofread so it’s a coherent sentence.”

I’ve never understood this. Most MLS ads read like a grade three school assignment. It’s the first impression of your home, it’s your elevator pitch, it’s going to be read by hundreds if not thousands of prospective buyers. So why can’t a realtor take the time to properly write out a few sentences? Most homeowners are smarter than their realtors and should take on writing the description themselves or at the very least ask to see it before it’s posted so they can correct the mistakes.

But hey, I guess if your realtor knows how to work the auto-edit feature on their iPhone for photos or has a drone, who cares right?

totoro
totoro
March 4, 2022 8:48 am

Current homes under construction that aren’t just single family replacements? Zero.

There are currently four homes under construction on new lots as a result of subdividing large lots. In addition, Council did approve a new development that is currently a small shop to go to two stories with rental units above. Not arguing that far more is not needed.

He thinks that Oak Bay is doing pretty good on housing and perhaps Oak Bay should brag more.

Oak Bay is working on infill housing policies but I’d say it is moving along at a snail’s pace. I filled in the OB survey and said that the only impediment to infill should be health and safety. Not sure that the majority of the community is on board for this and his reference to “fabulous public input” is likely mostly negative responses – but infill should be a provincial jurisdiction imo. I agree with taking away local vetoes on some matters.

Patrick
Patrick
March 4, 2022 8:39 am

I’m quite honestly speechless about this comment from Oak Bays mayor.

I agree, and it’s outrageous that oak bay gets away with zero growth in housing.

As an aside, is the tweet you referred to correct that oak bay council hasn’t turned down a development application permit in ten years? That’s hard to believe, but maybe they turn them down before they get to council stage?

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 4, 2022 8:38 am

some munis are doing a lot to meet that need, and some are doing absolutely nothing at all and think they’re doing a good job.

Amalgamation will be one of the solutions for that.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 4, 2022 8:17 am

Each neighbourhood has its own characteristic, but isn’t housing need the same across CRD? I am alwasy wondering why do we need 13 municipalities here?

Introvert
Introvert
March 4, 2022 7:59 am

What’s the formula for determining a municipality’s housing need?

Ash
Ash
March 3, 2022 9:51 pm

Any one know why 417 Durban had to drop its price? Now down to 1.49M. Trying to trigger a bidding war?

totoro
totoro
March 3, 2022 9:40 pm

I know multiple people who’ve torn down and rebuilt houses in Oak Bay in the last 5 years.

We don’t have to guess. There is a publicly searchable database. There are 15 active permits for SFHs in Oak Bay and about 155 active renovation permits.

Of the new builds, one is the result of a house fire and four are on new serviced lots. Ten are likely tear-downs and rebuilds. Of the ten, it looks like almost all of them sold last year.

There are about 8150 dwellings in Oak Bay (includes apartments). I’m not sure if ten tear downs is a lot or not as I don’t know what happens in other municipalities, but I would guess that those who have owned for some time are far less likely to tear down and rebuild because it makes no economic sense. It may make sense for someone looking to build a dream home coming from a higher priced market.

https://onlineservice.oakbay.ca/WebApps/OurCity/Prospero/Search.aspx

James Soper
James Soper
March 3, 2022 7:59 pm

I know multiple people who’ve torn down and rebuilt houses in Oak Bay in the last 5 years.

totoro
totoro
March 3, 2022 7:32 pm

I don’t agree. There are some places where this will happen, like the waterfront, which has a different buyer and economic outcome for rebuilding. I agree that waterfront homes are more likely to be torn down and rebuilt simply because the older homes on the water were built at a time when the differential between waterfront and inland was not nearly as high and you can justify the rebuild on resale. The vast majority of OB is not in this category.

We own a 1936 house in OB. There is no chance that we’ll tear it down and rebuild. Not only would the character features be lost, it is completely uneconomic to do this and the environmental cost is even higher. Zero neighbours have torn down and rebuilt and I don’t expect that this will happen except on an irregular basis.

It is far more likely that inland non-Uplands homes in OB will be renovated substantially. Homes that are torn down and rebuilt in OB generally a) had a house fire, or b) built on a lot subdivided off the main house/whole lot subdivided into two and two new houses built. The math just does not favour tearing down and rebuilding inland, at least at this point.

Dr Seuss
Dr Seuss
March 3, 2022 6:56 pm

“So did people buying Royal bay for $1.5M factor in $2/L gas?”

Probably as much as anyone choosing to live in Cordova Bay or Burnaby. Not much of an issue.

totoro
totoro
March 3, 2022 6:37 pm

These are completely livable and well kept old homes but they are tear-downs or at best short term holding properties for future re-development of the land.

What?

Half of Oak Bay is bulldozer bait. Oak Bay is changing and in a decade or two from now most of these quaint old cottage type homes will be demolished and replaced with some really gaudy new housing designs.

Misinformation.

The rent that you receive for an older home in Oak Bay is insufficient relative to its market value. Relative to their market value these older homes are getting a poor rate of return if not negative one.

Like the rest of Victoria.

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself

Is this JustJack (?) because the jibber jabber quotient is pretty high here.

Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
Whoeveriwanttocallmyself
March 3, 2022 5:48 pm

A potential problem with Emery is obtaining financing since the land is the majority of the value. For residential lending purposes, the lenders wants to amortize the loan over 25 years. That means the building has to have a remaining economic life of 25 plus 5 years. If the improvements exhibit more than 75% depreciation then the lender should be shortening the amortization period that they would use for lending. As lending on land is riskier than on an improved property as there is no rental income on vacant land or income on a home that is not habitable or rentable.

For example, if the land is worth a million then the contributory value of the improvements is $100,000. If the cost new to build is $400,000. Then the building is exhibiting 75% depreciation and a prudent lender would only amortization the loan for 15 to 20 years.

Depending on the lender, they will finance land only at 65% and improved properties with a remaining economic life of 30 and more years at 80%

A cracked foundation and settling would be indicative of a tear-down or about 75 to 90 percent depreciation.

However, not all lenders abide by this guideline.

And that brings up a problem with the older housing in Oak Bay where 90 percent of the value is in the land. These are completely livable and well kept old homes but they are tear-downs or at best short term holding properties for future re-development of the land. These areas are in transition as the older homes are now being demolished and replaced with large contemporary designed housing. Don’t get Economic life and physical life confused as they are not the same. The rent that you receive for an older home in Oak Bay is insufficient relative to its market value. Relative to their market value these older homes are getting a poor rate of return if not negative one.

Half of Oak Bay is bulldozer bait. Oak Bay is changing and in a decade or two from now most of these quaint old cottage type homes will be demolished and replaced with some really gaudy new housing designs. If you live in Oak Bay you should know exactly what I’m writing about.

DRAZ
DRAZ
March 3, 2022 4:46 pm

1854 Emery Pl – $1.1M. I guess “There are cracks in the foundation that may have caused the house in the settlement. The property is for sale on AS IS WHERE IS bases.” didn’t scare the new owners off. Hopefully they got a contractor and quote to do any remediation.

Also, I don’t quite get how little effort some realtors put in, they can’t even get the description proofread so it’s a coherent sentence.

Patrick
Patrick
March 3, 2022 4:06 pm

In 7 years, I’ve never had a major problem so the Tesla Rangers have actually been a huge plus.

Fair enough. That hasn’t been everyone’s experience though. The average Tesla owner has 1.7 problems (according to JD Power survey) , so some will have 0 problems. The rangers are great, but If they cant handle the on-site repair, it means you take a day-trip with your car to Vancouver and another to pick it up.
As you likely know, Tesla has rated very poorly in independent reliability reports. For example, JD Power rated it near the bottom. (30th of 33) https://insideevs.com/news/489178/tesla-bombs-jd-powers-dependability-study/ and consumer reports has it 27th/28. https://insideevs.com/news/549130/consumerreports-tesla-reliability-poor-2021/
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a fabulous car. I’m just happy there’s going to be local service available, and I’d give up the rangers for that.
I’m surprised that all car service centers don’t have a pickup/delivery service which would be a great convenience that people would pay for.

up-and-coming
up-and-coming
March 3, 2022 3:44 pm

“the Tesla Rangers have actually been a huge plus. I just book them to come to my place or office, so I don’t have to waste my time getting the car to and from the service center.”

Then opening this centre makes absolute sense. Tesla was probably wasting a decent amount of resources chasing all the Tesla fan boys around Greater Victoria and now they all have to come to them. Surprised it took this long with all the Musk Mobiles there are in this town.

freedom_2008
freedom_2008
March 3, 2022 3:42 pm

Anyone knows is 1854 Emery Pl sold and sold price? Thanks.

numbers hack
numbers hack
March 3, 2022 3:27 pm

If everyone thinks house hunt is a challenge in Victoria, try warehouse/industrial hunt in Victoria! The MOI would be similar or less than residential. Nice to have places to live, but IMO there is a bigger shortages of places to work out of (sans Offices)!

FatiguedBuyer
FatiguedBuyer
March 3, 2022 3:26 pm

5038 Wesley Rd – $1.815M

Fun fact: my Realtor showed this to a young couple back when it was listed in 2015 for $599k. He was upset they didn’t buy it then, as it had nice views and was a great location. It appreciated at $475 per day tax-free since!

Marko Juras
March 3, 2022 3:16 pm

Hey there, could anyone let me know what 2860 Graham st. has sold for? TIA

Showing as still available.

frank.the.tank
frank.the.tank
March 3, 2022 3:12 pm

Hey there, could anyone let me know what 2860 Graham st. has sold for? TIA

Marko Juras
March 3, 2022 3:11 pm

The service center is the best part of this – no more “Tesla Rangers”.

In 7 years, I’ve never had a major problem so the Tesla Rangers have actually been a huge plus. I just book them to come to my place or office, so I don’t have to waste my time getting the car to and from the service center. After I hit 200,000 km I wanted a full inspection just to make sure a wheel wasn’t going to fall off or similar and they put it on a hoist at Ferny’s Autobody to do that. At 200,000 km brake pads had more than half life left in them. Every single brake component is original. Between lack of servicing, not having to fill up on gas, insane real time traffic GPS system, it saves a lot of time. Gas fill up takes 5 minutes, plugging it in every night takes less than 3-4 seconds.

Marko Juras
March 3, 2022 3:06 pm

This is correct. I wouldn’t worry much about polyB + copper fittings.

+1, I’ve asked quite a few local plumbers and this setup does not appear to be prone to leaks, in Victoria. As long as you can secure insurance I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

Sidekick
Sidekick
March 3, 2022 2:38 pm

We moved into a townhouse with Poly-B (with copper fittings). I think I read somewhere that it’s the fittings that are most prone to failure. So copper fittings are better than Poly-B fittings. We didn’t have any trouble getting a reasonable price on insurance – and they asked about the Poly-B. I don’t believe our complex has had any insurance claims due to Poly-B failures.

This is correct. I wouldn’t worry much about polyB + copper fittings.

Patrick
Patrick
March 3, 2022 1:42 pm

So the same rise in interest rates takes a much bigger chunk out of consumer demand than it used to.

Sure, but that doesn’t mean that a 3% BOC rate is going to crash the RE market or cure inflation. Let’s revisit this discussion if/when BOC rate hits 3%.

BlueMoon
BlueMoon
March 3, 2022 1:32 pm

@jgr

We moved into a townhouse with Poly-B (with copper fittings). I think I read somewhere that it’s the fittings that are most prone to failure. So copper fittings are better than Poly-B fittings. We didn’t have any trouble getting a reasonable price on insurance – and they asked about the Poly-B. I don’t believe our complex has had any insurance claims due to Poly-B failures.

patriotz
patriotz
March 3, 2022 1:06 pm

That’s only if you count debts but ignore assets, which isn’t how a balance sheet works.

I wasn’t talking about balance sheets. I was talking about current income versus expenses which determine consumer demand. If interest rates go up, debtors are going to have to pay more to service that debt, which leaves them with less money to buy goods and services. What your house could sell for is irrelevant, unless you’re going to dig yourself into a deeper hole by borrowing more against it. Or if you sell it, but the buyer is going to have to pay those higher rates. And where does that lead?

So the same rise in interest rates takes a much bigger chunk out of consumer demand than it used to.

Patrick
Patrick
March 3, 2022 12:35 pm

Ordinarily I would agree but households are so indebted these days

That’s only if you count debts but ignore assets, which isn’t how a balance sheet works.
Net assets of Canadians are all time high.
Canadians net worth (assets-debts) more than doubled over the last 10 years, from $7 trillion to $15 trillion
That was because assets rose $9 trillion and debts rose $1 trillion For every $1 in extra debt, Canadians gained $9 in assets. That puts Canadians balance sheets in great shape.

Currently Canadians are in great shape with $18 trillion assets ($8t homes, $10t other) and $3 trillion debts ($2t mortgages,$1t other debt), for a net worth of $15 trillion
If house prices fall in half, then Canadians have $4 trillion in houses with $2 trillion mortgages, still 50% equity.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610058001&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.4&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2011&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20110101%2C20211001

Introvert
Introvert
March 3, 2022 12:11 pm

Nice to see a Tesla “dealership” (showroom and service center) coming to Victoria (Langford). The service center is the best part of this – no more “Tesla Rangers”.

That’s great news!

DRAZ
DRAZ
March 3, 2022 11:02 am

5038 Wesley Rd – $1.815M

Sidekick
Sidekick
March 3, 2022 10:35 am

Nice to see a Tesla “dealership” (showroom and service center) coming to Victoria (Langford)

Hope it’s right next to the fire department 😉

Patrick
Patrick
March 3, 2022 10:15 am

Nice to see a Tesla “dealership” (showroom and service center) coming to Victoria (Langford). The service center is the best part of this – no more “Tesla Rangers”.
And a fun fact that “there are more Tesla cars on southern Vancouver Island, per capita, than in any other region in Canada.” (For this to be true, they must not be considering Vancouver as a “region”, because driving around Vancouver you see way more teslas per capita )

https://www.timescolonist.com/business/new-tesla-dealership-in-langford-the-first-for-vancouver-island-5119836

SP
SP
March 3, 2022 9:59 am

” If you were to be listing your house for sale sometime this spring, would you be trying to do so ASAP (say, later in March) before any potential correction due to interest rate hikes or WWIII (knock on wood), or would you take your time preparing the house for sale more (do some exterior painting and a few random fixes around the house to make it show better) and list at the end of April?”

I’d list the property now for couple weeks and see what offers will be received. If unhappy with the offers, just remove the listing and relist again later this year.

jgr
jgr
March 3, 2022 9:59 am

Hi all, long time lurker first time poster. We recently looked at a townhouse and were seriously looking into making an offer – we had a pre-inspection done, and found out it has Poly-B plumbing. (We’ve decided against making an offer, for other reasons as well, but certainly the Poly-B was a contributing factor.)

How big of a deal is Poly-B in Victoria? Reading about it online and talking with our insurance broker, it sounds like it’s a ticking time bomb, will make obtaining insurance a nightmare (if you can even get it without condition of full piping replacement within 90 days) and we were told to avoid places with Poly-B if at all possible. However I’ve also heard from home-owning colleagues that it’s in pretty much everything built from the late-80s to early 2000s. Anybody have any experiences (good, neutral or bad) buying properties with polybutylene piping?

Bturn
Bturn
March 3, 2022 9:44 am

Can someone please look into what 5038 Wesley Rd went for? Thank you!

Introvert
Introvert
March 3, 2022 7:46 am

If you were to be listing your house for sale sometime this spring, would you be trying to do so ASAP (say, later in March) before any potential correction due to interest rate hikes

To help inform your decision, from today’s Globe and Mail:

“I don’t think 25 basis points alone would have much of an impact on the housing market. It will take a series of rate increases to achieve that,” said Jean-François Perrault, chief economist with Bank of Nova Scotia.

Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said it is unlikely that Wednesday’s rate hike will have any significant impact on a housing market with as much momentum as Canada’s. “I suspect rate hikes would really begin to bite when we get to 100 basis points,” he said.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-will-need-more-rate-increases-to-cool-housing-frenzy-economists/

patriotz
patriotz
March 3, 2022 5:31 am

If they wanted to seriously fight inflation, the rate would need to be higher than inflation, so that would put it north of 5%.

Ordinarily I would agree but households are so indebted these days that you would get more inflation fighting per % increase than you used to. A BoC rate of e.g. 3% would likely result in mortgage rates 5%+ which would collapse the RE market and bring down consumer demand substantially.

Frank
Frank
March 3, 2022 3:26 am

It’s only a matter of time until your insurance company asks if you own an electric car and triples your home insurance. Is that real estate talk?

Infrequent Poster
Infrequent Poster
March 2, 2022 11:36 pm

If you were to be listing your house for sale sometime this spring, would you be trying to do so ASAP (say, later in March) before any potential correction due to interest rate hikes or WWIII (knock on wood), or would you take your time preparing the house for sale more (do some exterior painting and a few random fixes around the house to make it show better) and list at the end of April? Get your crystal balls out please everyone.

Marko Juras
March 2, 2022 9:59 pm

So even if it’s not expensive to meet the status of a legal suite, the overall price advantage is just too property specific to estimate any value increase?

The value increase of adding a suite will be much larger if you have an unfinished basement versus you have a fully finished basement and all you have to do is add a kitchen. Not one is going to give you an extra 100k for adding a 20k kitchen to an already finished basement. Also adding a illegal versus unauthorized suite is going to be a lot easier in a 1990s home versus a 1940s with a 5’11” basement.

Would need to know what the situation is.

2wheels
2wheels
March 2, 2022 9:55 pm

All this exploding battery talk really gives me the hots for real estate discussion.

Frank
Frank
March 2, 2022 9:01 pm

Just saw this on CBC news. The teeny weeny battery in the Fitbit is causing injury, spontaneously. There are consumer protection agencies that protect the public from hazardous products.

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RightSaysFred
RightSaysFred
March 2, 2022 8:30 pm

I have read that a legal suite increases property value about $100,000. Is this generally correct?
We’ve discussed this before on HHV. Too many variables. Is the basement currently finished? If so is there already a bathroom/bedroom and you just have to add a kitchen, etc.

In general, you’ll never get your money back for a legal suite vs unauthorized suite. You’ll have to do an insane number of extra upgrades for a legal suite that the buyer won’t pay for. For example (one of many), if you have a 1/2” water line the plumbing fixture additions of the suite will require an upgrade to 1” which will set you back in the thousands and the buyer doesn’t really care for things like that.

That’s good to know. I’m looking for a carpentry company that has done these before to help out with an estimate. So even if it’s not expensive to meet the status of a legal suite, the overall price advantage is just too property specific to estimate any value increase? That’s good to know. I’m going to try to find previous discussions on HHV on that topic. If anyone can suggest some please do.

Frank
Frank
March 2, 2022 8:18 pm

This is just the start. Wait until they disallow electric cars on B.C. ferries.

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Marko Juras
March 2, 2022 8:09 pm

I have read that a legal suite increases property value about $100,000. Is this generally correct?

We’ve discussed this before on HHV. Too many variables. Is the basement currently finished? If so is there already a bathroom/bedroom and you just have to add a kitchen, etc.

In general, you’ll never get your money back for a legal suite vs unauthorized suite. You’ll have to do an insane number of extra upgrades for a legal suite that the buyer won’t pay for. For example (one of many), if you have a 1/2” water line the plumbing fixture additions of the suite will require an upgrade to 1” which will set you back in the thousands and the buyer doesn’t really care for things like that.

Marko Juras
March 2, 2022 8:03 pm

Doesn’t mean you can never fly, but might mean that you will fly less and choose to compensate for it in other ways.

I fly KLM to Croatia. They have this option for $18.10 called “CO2ZERO”

“CO2ZERO is a voluntary CO2 compensation service which enables the passenger to compensate his flight-related carbon emissions thus making his personal flight carbon neutral.”

I’ll make sure to add it to my ticket next time to save the planet.

Newishhomeowner
Newishhomeowner
March 2, 2022 7:59 pm

Enjoy your gas vehicle, Frank. Everytime i see a gas station at 194.9 a litre i will think of you and laugh.

Patrick
Patrick
March 2, 2022 5:28 pm

Persistently elevated inflation is increasing the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

I want to believe the BOC, but I don’t see them having the resolve to fight inflation. CPI is 5% YOY. They raised rates (deposit/overnight) from 0.25% to 0.50%.
If they wanted to seriously fight inflation, the rate would need to be higher than inflation, so that would put it north of 5%.

The BOC also provided the latest “excuse variant” that they are worried about
“ The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major new source of uncertainty.”
They should give these things Greek letters so we could keep track of them

.. so I wouldn’t expect them to seriously be planning to “return inflation to 2%”. I think they “hope inflation will return to 2%”, but they won’t make it happen.

totoro
totoro
March 2, 2022 4:33 pm

@totoro et al, you want a reply?

Yes if you don’t mind. I know you and others have more experience/education/aptitude in building retrofitting and efficiency.

DRAZ
DRAZ
March 2, 2022 4:02 pm

1920 Haultain – $1.315M

FatiguedBuyer
FatiguedBuyer
March 2, 2022 3:48 pm

I am curious how many people on this site are actually still looking to buy a property? If you are still looking in spite of the prices give me a thumbs ups on the counter below.

Does “looking” include laughing with your wife at the automated search results your Realtor sends you? I would expect a lot of people are watching but fatigued and perhaps no longer submitting offers.

Maybe rephrase as how many of you have put in an offer in the past 3 months and will continue to do so?

James Soper
James Soper
March 2, 2022 3:46 pm

Gas prices jumped 18 cents today and car manufacturers across europe/asia are having to shut down operations because of missing parts.
I’m sure inflation is gonna back to 2% by Christmas.

Halibut
Halibut
March 2, 2022 3:36 pm

Hate to be that person but it’s outside the parameters of my PCS. Does anyone know what 1920 Haultain sold for?

Sidekick
Sidekick
March 2, 2022 3:14 pm

@totoro et al, you want a reply?

James Soper
James Soper
March 2, 2022 2:11 pm

Seems like there’s a strong correlation between dropping sales to new listing, and dropping YoY price change… which is interesting considering we’re getting that signal right now.

Also, Patrick, red is 5 year fixed, yellow is variable (i believe).

alexandracdn
alexandracdn
March 2, 2022 12:55 pm

I just saw 357 Kislingbury Lane sold for an incredible $878K. It is a semi-detached, 2 bed 2 bath up with 2 bed suite down. Single car garage with extra parking. 375 Kislingbury, an identical property sold 11 months ago (6Apr21), for $530K. I almost purchased one of those properties, (there are around 3 or 4 of them on same st.) in 2016 for an investment. I believe I could have got it for around $408K? I didn’t do it for various reasons, but I was trying (again) to help a young couple out from Vancouver at the time, and they were in that price range. There was nothing much around. He was a carpenter, a charge hand of sorts, but didn’t stay in touch, so unsure if they purchased it or not. It was really tough to get in the market as a first time buyer then never mind now.

Barrister
Barrister
March 2, 2022 12:17 pm

I am curious how many people on this site are actually still looking to buy a property? If you are still looking in spite of the prices give me a thumbs ups on the counter below.

RightSaysFred
RightSaysFred
March 2, 2022 11:41 am

It will be interesting to see if this rate hike slows down appreciation.

Quick question: I have a house in Saanich that may be valued at least 1.2 million (probably a lot more, but for sake of argument 1.2). If a legal suite is put in, what kind of affect might this have on resale?

I have read that a legal suite increases property value about $100,000. Is this generally correct?

GC
GC
March 2, 2022 10:53 am

The rate hike wasn’t much of a shock, it and a few others have been priced into the bond market for awhile.

Frank
Frank
March 2, 2022 10:18 am

BNN- Vancouver house prices up 20.7% February Y-over-Y.

Ash
Ash
March 2, 2022 9:31 am
totoro
totoro
March 2, 2022 9:19 am

the environment does not influence my decision. Not going to lie or be a hypocrite.

Stating you are just being honest deflects from the real issue, which is whether you are acting out of ignorance, wilful blindness or a desire to avoid change/decision fatigue.

The basis of your view appears to be, in short, other people don’t care, it makes no difference, and individual climate footprint is not regulated legally so you don’t have to and even where regulated government is idiotic and will make bad decisions. Lots of reliable science-based info out there on the “it makes no difference” position if you are interested. Doesn’t mean you can never fly, but might mean that you will fly less and choose to compensate for it in other ways.

I personally find housing a confusing topic re. carbon footprint and do have decision fatigue. I don’t understand the overall carbon emission equations well enough, and have a hard time deciding what to do as I’m not mechanically minded. Ex. I have a gas fireplace, water heater and stove. Seems like gas is questionable, but is replacing these with new electric the answer if they are all working well and there is an environmental cost to new or even to converting systems at end of life?

Solar doesn’t make economic sense, we went through an assessment process, and there is research showing other issues with embodied energy and end of life recycling that make me question paying more for it and then having another thing to maintain that I don’t understand. Will it ever make sense in Victoria to do this or should we all be insulating and using hydro-electric power?

I think part of the issue with making decisions is the fact that economics promote consumption by buying new for energy efficiency but, like with my older gas car, given how much I drive, a new electric car will add to my carbon footprint. Even something like using cloth shopping bags becomes more complicated when you look at embodied costs.

https://www2.mst.dk/Udgiv/publications/2018/02/978-87-93614-73-4.pdf

Mt. Tolmie Foothills
Mt. Tolmie Foothills
March 2, 2022 8:33 am

How did I end up on the car fire Victoria site?

Due to the housing crisis, people must live in their Teslas.

Patrick
Patrick
March 2, 2022 7:23 am

Great article!
On the chart for “interest rates charged for new and existing mortgages”, what are the labels for the red and yellow data that is charted?