August 26 Market Update – Get low

This post is 5 years old. The data and my views may have since evolved.

Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.

August 2019
Aug
2018
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4
Sales 205 375 530 594
New Listings 371 608 837 972
Active Listings 2914 2876 2854 2519
Sales to New Listings 55% 62% 63% 61%
Sales Projection 671 694
Months of Inventory 4.2

Sales slowed down last week compared to the week before, but not as much as they slowed last year.  In other words, the percentage year over year increase in sales continues to climb, now at +17% for the month.    As it was last week, it’s mostly single family sales that are driving the increase, up some 23% from last year in the last three weeks.  Digging further, the increase is even more driven by Greater Victoria (single family up at ~32%) with the core areas being somewhat stronger than the westshore.   Of course the increase comes from very low levels last year, but that is an increase in sales not to ignore.

What’s interesting is that some people expected the mortgage stress test to hit more in the condo market as marginal and first time buyers were forced out of the market entirely.   However the market seemed to have responded quite in the opposite way with single family dropping the most when it was introduced, and luxury single family being the weakest segment (for different reasons most likely).  Now that the stress test is nearly 2 years old and some buyers may be returning, it seems the first segment to start benefiting is again the detached market.   For the past 18 months, the middle of the of the market has been the most active, with the high and low end weaker.   Just in the last 4 weeks though, almost all the increase in detached sales has been on the lower end.

It shows why some people have quite different perspectives on the market.  If you’re looking in that middle range, things are still languishing.  If you’re trying to nab something detached under $750k, it’s very competitive.

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Introvert
Introvert
September 1, 2019 8:51 pm

So far.

Gee whiz, I’ve got a rate hold on a lower 5-year rate than my already-low current one. So go ahead and add another 5 years to “so far.”

James Soper
James Soper
September 1, 2019 7:46 pm

Somehow you’ve managed it. You told us you bought a few weeks ago.

Yeah by buying during the recession.
Not everyone is as lucky as me and my buddy intrororrorovert.

James Soper
James Soper
September 1, 2019 7:45 pm

I don’t know, they’ve worked out pretty well for me.

So far.

Introvert
Introvert
September 1, 2019 6:58 pm

Which is one of the many reasons why low interest rates are very bad.

I don’t know, they’ve worked out pretty well for me.

Instead of bemoaning the lack of return on savings, I’ve opted to pay down my mortgage much faster, thereby saving myself hundreds of thousands in interest—now that’s a good return!

Then factor in price appreciation during that time and things get even sweeter.

It was supposed to be a short-term solution that has gone on too long.

Don’t forget that inflation also influences the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions, and inflation has been below average over the last 10 years.

patriotz
patriotz
September 1, 2019 6:03 pm

Croatia has a very large expat workforce (it’s always been large, and now with EU membership the opportunities are better) working in places such as Germany, who don’t get counted in local income stats. So it’s not just “locals” versus “foreigners”, there are also locals with foreign incomes. This is a significant factor in the RE market in any place with a large expat population (even within Canada, e.g. east coasters working in Alberta). Not saying it’s the whole story but it has to be part of it.

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 5:30 pm

Soaring housing prices prompt flight to Galiano Island
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/jack-knox-soaring-housing-prices-prompt-flight-to-galiano-island-1.23790826?fbclid=IwAR32gD_8ARdx7HqbzJiq3r3BpxWTSWDnebiGx-Vklaz5g4S1pmu4UX8DIqE&utm_campaign=magnet&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles

The retiree numbers are just beginning to ramp up. This link shows the peak age in Canada is age 53. http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/canada-population/

That means more retirees for at least 15 years. Gulf Islands have tiny populations – e.g. Galiano population is 1,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galiano_Island

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 3:46 pm

> Or Victoria, or Vancouver, or anywhere really.

Somehow you’ve managed it. You told us you bought a few weeks ago.

James Soper
James Soper
September 1, 2019 3:21 pm

Perhaps a Gulf Island may not be the best place financially for a young family to try to buy, or rent, a property.

Or Victoria, or Vancouver, or anywhere really.

Introvert
Introvert
September 1, 2019 2:25 pm

Salt Spring, Galiano islands collar short-term vacation rentals

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/salt-spring-galiano-islands-collar-short-term-vacation-rentals-1.23933154

From the article:

Young families are hit particularly hard, Rogers said, as they struggle to find affordable housing in a tight market.

Perhaps a Gulf Island may not be the best place financially for a young family to try to buy, or rent, a property.

Just a thought.

strangertimes
strangertimes
September 1, 2019 1:19 pm

“A half decent condo is 250,000+ euros (370k cnd). Average salary 12,000 euros/year. Zagreb would be essentially zero foreign buyers as they buy on the coast of Croatia. Income/price metrics make zero sense.”

Marko- From these articles it seems as though prices in Zagreb are skyrocketing due to the same reason other tourist cities around the world have seen large increases. Influx of investors, foreign buyers, Airbnb

“Also, in just the past twelve months there has been a 30% increase in homes being advertised on Airbnb in Zagreb so the demand for vacation rentals is seeing its own surge as well. Nino Ćosić, founder of A Nekretnine, who estimates 20% of buyers come from outside the country”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/amydobson/2019/02/11/the-best-emerging-markets-in-europe-to-invest-in-before-brexit-makes-landfall/#311b09d37558

“The climb in real estate prices in the capital is thought to be due to the increase in Zagreb as a tourist destination, and investors are buying real estate to cover the demand for tourists and short-term rentals.”
https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/6535-zagreb-the-highest-climber-in-real-estate-prices-in-2018

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 1:09 pm

Same sales, 15% more inventory in the $2M+ range.

Overall market has 12% more inventory YOY 2854 (aug 2019 inventory) vs 2547 (aug 2018 inventory). Not that different than the +15% for luxury market.

Selling prices also similar (3-5% over assessment).

Doesn’t add up to “dramatic slowdown for luxury market” vs “flat market for overall market” to me.

Chinves
Chinves
September 1, 2019 12:24 pm

you can continue to apply meaning to selling price vs original asking price if you want, but those original asking prices are pulled out of thin air by the sellers, so don’t mean much to me. In the high price range, the original asking price can just be an indication of how motivated the seller is.

man what happened to the 100 k above asking in the last two years for the low 700’s

qt
qt
September 1, 2019 11:49 am

Income/price metrics make zero sense.

I agree, specially in places that have small population with large influx of tourists. And, it seems as if price discrepancy is even greater when things are not priced in local currency. (ie. Croatia, Cambodia, etc…)

RenterInParadise
RenterInParadise
September 1, 2019 9:56 am

Lots of capital floating around and very little return out there.

Which is one of the many reasons why low interest rates are very bad. It was supposed to be a short-term solution that has gone on too long.

James Soper
James Soper
September 1, 2019 9:37 am

Obviously the higher end market has slowed dramatically since a couple years ago. Doesn’t mean it’s collapsing, it’s just a lot slower.

Isn’t this exactly what was happening last summer in Vancouver?

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 9:32 am

Well you can track price drops from the “asking price” (that you describe as a useless number). To me that seems a classic example of garbage-in-garbage-out. I’ll stick with sold price to assessed value.

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 9:07 am

Asking prices are useless.

OK, and I called them “meaningless”. Same thing. So why challenge me by saying “not meaningless”? What possible use do you get from “price reductions from asking prices”, if you declare asking prices to be useless in the first place?

I expect a lot of people here read about the “dramatic” slowdown in the luxury market that you describe in the previous message, and assume that prices have fallen too in that segment. Yet they are still selling on average above assessments (which have risen “dramatically” over last few years). I think that’s worth pointing out.

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 8:48 am

Same sales, 15% more inventory in the $2M+ range

I am talking about prices, specifically sold price, which are still selling above assessed value in the >$2m range. You can continue to apply meaning to selling price vs original asking price if you want, but those original asking prices are pulled out of thin air by the sellers, so don’t mean much to me. In the high price range, the original asking price can just be an indication of how motivated the seller is.

Instead of listing the inventory changes by %, why not list the absolute numbers, because they are very small, where 15% doesn’t represent that many houses, and could be due to other factors than a slowing market.

Patrick
Patrick
September 1, 2019 8:28 am

I am not seeing any major drop in house prices yet unless you are looking at the 2 million and up market.

You’ll always see major price drops in the >$2m market. Meaningless. Because in that high range, many homes are considered “one-of-a-kind” and so are listed way above assessment to capture the single buyer looking for that home. As time passes the price falls.

But the point is that the >$2m homes still end up selling above assessment. In fact, looking at the last 18 Vic. homes sold >$2m, 11 sold above assessment and 7 sold below, with the average sale +5% above assessment. (And that excluded new builds that sold way above assessment, including those would produce much higher numbers).

Marko Juras
September 1, 2019 3:34 am

I’ve pretty much given up on trying to figure out real estate markets. I am in Zagreb right now where I own a place and looks like prices will be around 15% higher YOY. The developer I bought my current place from recently sold out a project online in 12 minutes.

https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/6666-zagreb-sees-explosion-of-real-estate-prices-in-2019

A half decent condo is 250,000+ euros (370k cnd). Average salary 12,000 euros/year. Zagreb would be essentially zero foreign buyers as they buy on the coast of Croatia. Income/price metrics make zero sense.

On top of that the country is losing population like crazy

“Croatia is in demographic crisis and losing people each year. … Croatia is now ranked as the 14th fastest shrinking country in the world. It’s predicted that Croatia’s population will shrink to 3.1 million by 2050, after reaching its peak of 4.7 million in 1991”

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/croatia-population/

Steve
Steve
August 31, 2019 10:21 pm

Which lot sold in Uplands for 2.5? Been watching those homes just sit there and not lowering and not selling.

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 31, 2019 6:47 pm

I am not seeing any major drop in house prices yet unless you are looking at the 2 million and up market.

Hard to tell in the sub-750 market, at least in the region I look at. However, there are a number of them selling for 10-50k under ask and/or assessment, and one actually sold at more than 100k under ask. Nothing is going for notably over asking, although most properties in that segment aren’t languishing either.

I won’t be surprised if house prices inch up a bit as it re-balances with the interest rate fall. I suspect that’s not going to last though, especially if a recession ensues. Not interested in that new “government will buy your house with you” policy either. Don’t think it’ll do anything in this market.

Barrister
Barrister
August 31, 2019 4:32 pm

I am not seeing any major drop in house prices yet unless you are looking at the 2 million and up market. If anything it almost feels like some prices are inching up again. The stats bunnies will argue it both ways but for those waiting for a major decline this summer has been a disappointment.

James Soper
James Soper
August 31, 2019 4:15 pm

RBC Economist says housing correction is over

The king is dead. Long live the king.

Patrick
Patrick
August 31, 2019 3:33 pm

The RBC headline (“housing correction is over”) is premature and cring-worthy, but the article itself has lots of data to back up the thesis of a recovery. Moreover, it references the CREA report for July 2019, which adds the following points

https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/stats/
“- The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.6% m-o-m in July 2019, the largest increase in over 2 years.
– The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2019 was just under $499,000, up 3.9% from the same month last year
– Sales are starting to rebound in places where they dropped when the mortgage stress test took effect at the beginning of 2018, but activity there remains well below levels recorded prior to its introduction. By the same token, sales continue to rise in housing markets where the mortgage stress test had little impact due to upbeat local economic conditions and a supply of affordably priced homes.
– The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts more than $105,000 from the national average price, trimming it to less than $393,000”

—==—–==—–=
This last point, $393K national average price outside Toronto, Vancouver is a good one. With 20% down that $393K home requires a $315k mortgage, which @ 2.69% 5-year fixed is $1,438 monthly . (and there’s govt FTB programs to help with that. That seems affordable to most young families (outside of Van, Toronto) , although in Victoria that’s likely a condo.

RenterInParadise
RenterInParadise
August 31, 2019 1:02 pm

RBC Economist says housing correction is over

Carnac the Magnificent says….

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 31, 2019 10:07 am

RBC Economist says housing correction is over

Good grief…

Victoria Born
Victoria Born
August 31, 2019 9:48 am

RBC Economist says housing correction is over:

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/canadian-housing/housespecial-aug19.pdf

Load up on RE !!!! Yeah, right……………

Patrick
Patrick
August 31, 2019 7:53 am

Vancouver sales for August up about 17% over August last year. Still 12% below 10 year average for August, but trending up. Inventory falling (-10% from peak, about as expected seasonally) and rising sales/new listings =59% … all encouraging signs.

Patrick
Patrick
August 31, 2019 7:28 am

“none of them were followed by house crashes” Except for 81 which, according to your data, dropped 26% after that year (peak to trough) and took until 1988 to get back to par

If you look (at the huffington chart) at the really bad Canada bond yield curve inversion,78-81 you’ll see Vic house prices nearly doubled during the inversion from $67k (1978) to $126k(1981). Then there was a recession and prices fell back 26% (to $94k in 1985), still 40% above the 1978 level when the inversion began.

Patrick
Patrick
August 30, 2019 8:03 pm

So it’s not totally unreasonable to assume a recession coming off these peaks could have some negative impact on the housing market in Victoria, even if only for a short while…

Absolutely. A recession can drop house prices. The issue under discussion however is an inverted yield curve, which in Canada has only been followed by a recession half the time (3/6 times). If you look at the graph in the huff post article I linked to, you can see the 3 recessions and the 6 inversions.

rush4life
rush4life
August 30, 2019 7:41 pm

“none of them were followed by house crashes”

Except for 81 which, according to your data, dropped 26% after that year (peak to trough) and took until 1988 to get back to par (not including inflation) for average house price. As well although i don’t have the chart in front of me i remember Leos graph showing a drop right after 2008 and i remember the teranet showing slow price decline for the next 5 or so years totaling 10-12% if i remember our last discussion on it. So it’s not totally unreasonable to assume a recession coming off these peaks could have some negative impact on the housing market in Victoria, even if only for a short while…

Patrick
Patrick
August 30, 2019 6:14 pm

They came up with it in the 80s, and it fit for the previous recessions. It’s fit with every recession since. So it’s 7 [recessions] for 7 [yield curve inversions] .

You’re quoting US statistics. Canada is a different story.

In Canada, since 1970 the have been 3 recessions (‘81,’91,2008) and 6 yield curve inversions. So that’s 3 for 6, not 7 for 7. And in Victoria none of them were followed by a crash in house prices. For example, the 2001 yield curve inversion resulted in no recession, and instead a doubling of Victoria house prices over the next five years.

Recessions, yield curve inversions in Canada
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/31/yield-curve-canada-recession_a_23513894
Vic house prices https://www.vreb.org/media/attachments/view/doc/ye782018/pdf/Annual%20Summary%20of%20Single%20Family%20Sales%20from%201978

Victoria Born
Victoria Born
August 30, 2019 5:42 pm

RBC economist, Hougue, today says the national RE price correction has ended. So, he says we are at bottom – start buying.

A lot of analysis, see Steve Seretsky as an example, speaks of condos [local folks don’t have the income to buy detached] and rising sales for condos and more price stability for condos and more supply of condos. I think it is important recognize a dichotomy here: single family detached homes v. condominiums. They are not the same animal and never were.

I would love to know the stats on plus $1.5M sales. A home sold yesterday in Uplands for $2.5M [the first sale in a long time] which was originally listed almost a year ago at, what, $4M, then drop, drop, drop – last listing was $2.888 [note the crazy 8’s] and sold for $2.5M, $400K below the tax assessment.

Talk of a rate cut here: ill-advised when Q2 GDP grew at 3.7%.

rush4life
rush4life
August 30, 2019 5:42 pm

here is the recession table further back with some false positives (2 of them):
comment image

Grant
Grant
August 30, 2019 4:51 pm

And I’ll pile on a bit more on the global macro economics, this time an excerpt from a recent article by Ray Dalio (with link to his full article)

More specifically, central bank policies will push short-term and long-term real and nominal interest rates very low and print money to buy financial assets because they will need to set short-term interest rates as low as possible due to the large debt and other obligations (e.g. pensions and healthcare obligation) that are coming due and because of weakness in the economy and low inflation. Their hope will be that doing so will drive the expected returns of cash below the expected returns of bonds, but that won’t work well because a) these rates are too close to their floors, b) there is a weakening in growth and inflation expectations which is also lowering the expected returns of equities, c) real rates need to go very low because of the large debt and other obligations coming due, and d) the purchases of financial assets by central banks stays in the hands of investors rather than trickles down to most of the economy (which worsens the wealth gap and the populist political responses). This has happened at a time when investors have become increasingly leveraged long due to the low interest rates and their increased liquidity. As a result we see the market driving down short term rates while central banks are also turning more toward long-term interest rate and yield curve controls, just as they did from the late 1930s through most of the 1940s.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/three-big-issues-1930s-analogue-ray-dalio/

James Soper
James Soper
August 30, 2019 4:15 pm

He also spoke of a likely recession based on inversion of the yield curve. I wasn’t sure how often these two go hand in hand but it seems like quite frequently (though the inversion precedes the recession by a year or two):

They came up with it in the 80s, and it fit for the previous recessions. It’s fit with every recession since. So it’s 7 for 7.

rush4life
rush4life
August 30, 2019 2:07 pm

Watched Steve Saretskys weekly video this AM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5REPz81TMRA) and he is starting to suggest that, at least in the short term, there is evidence to support some price appreciation in house prices. In particular he noted the sales/listing ratio which has recently increased and historically prices seem to reflect it quite closely (meaning we should start seeing prices trend upwards nationally at least). I tried to find the chart online but it seems like you need to pay for a membership to Capital Economics so i just screen shot it (best i could do). Pretty telling i’d say:comment image

He also spoke of a likely recession based on inversion of the yield curve. I wasn’t sure how often these two go hand in hand but it seems like quite frequently (though the inversion precedes the recession by a year or two):
comment image

So i’m not sure of the actual sales/listings to ratio is in Victoria but if it has increased relative to prices like Canada as a whole has it would seem to reason that we may not see any price drops like i know every member on the forum was hoping for ;). Seeing as it seems rates are only going to go lower over the near term a full on recession is one of the only things I see that will shake down prices.

And I see a lot of hate for Steve online insinuating he is a perma bear but i appreciate he is just assessing data and translating what he thinks it means – and in this case its bullish.

James Soper
James Soper
August 30, 2019 1:47 pm

Wolf, out of curiosity I took a fast look and it possible that what LF is looking for might not be on the market and it is not a matter of price range. It took me almost a year before i found a house that I really liked. Certainly I am aware that when we put our house on the market it will not be everyone’s cup of tea. In fact it might only appeal to a limited segment.

Entirely depends on what you put it up for Barrister 🙂

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 30, 2019 8:30 am

China continues to tighten the screws on capital flight, especially as their currency depreciates…

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/China-clamps-down-on-capital-flight-risk-as-yuan-weakens

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 30, 2019 8:20 am

what LF is looking for might not be on the market and it is not a matter of price range.

More or less. Price has an effect for sure but more than that, there’s very little to choose from. If we’re going to get a place, it’s going to be what we want. We haven’t been in a hurry to date and we’re not going to start now. We certainly won’t be participating in a competitive bidding process. That’s slowly dying off as the market rolls over, but there’s still a fair bit of activity in certain areas and segments.

Patrick
Patrick
August 30, 2019 8:00 am

Economic data looking good, rate cut unlikely.

Canada’s GDP booms 3.7% [annualized] in second quarter
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canadas-gdp-booms-37-in-second-quarter-2019-08-30?link=MW_latest_news

patriotz
patriotz
August 30, 2019 6:47 am

San Francisco’s rent controls are actually less comprehensive than those currently in effect in BC. Like in BC, they do not apply to new tenants, but there are more exceptions. They do not apply to single family homes or any property built after 1979.

As well, the City of San Francisco has only a little more than 10% of the metro population.

https://sfrb.org/

DuranDuran
DuranDuran
August 29, 2019 10:51 pm

From the American Economic Review:

The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco
Rebecca Diamond
Tim McQuade
Franklin Qian

Abstract
Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals’ migration, we find rent control limits renters’ mobility by 20 percent and lowers displacement from San Francisco. Landlords treated by rent control reduce rental housing supplies by 15 percent by selling to owner-occupants and redeveloping buildings. Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181289

Barrister
Barrister
August 29, 2019 9:55 pm

Wolf, out of curiosity I took a fast look and it possible that what LF is looking for might not be on the market and it is not a matter of price range. It took me almost a year before i found a house that I really liked. Certainly I am aware that when we put our house on the market it will not be everyone’s cup of tea. In fact it might only appeal to a limited segment.

rush4life
rush4life
August 29, 2019 8:38 pm

MLS® Number: 414978 looks like a pretty good deal – 5 bdrm 3 bathroom (1 or 2 bdrm suite) its on blenkinsop so a busy road but great location in terms of being pretty central. all for 739k – one of the better deals i’ve seen recently unless there is something wrong with the place that isn’t stated on the MLS. Curious to see what it sells for.

GC
GC
August 29, 2019 7:32 pm

Construction costs can be anywhere between $250 to $650 Sq/ft depending on specifications, size of the building, location, and seismic requirements.

Wolf
Wolf
August 29, 2019 6:35 pm

“Still virtually nothing that interests us though”

I find that hard to believe. C’mon LF, nothing that interests you or nothing that interests you with what you’re willing to spend? At some point you just have to buy that home and move on with your life.

Barrister
Barrister
August 29, 2019 4:55 pm

Condo prices still seem to be creeping up and perhaps the drop in mortgage rates partially supports the increase. Nevertheless the price per square foot seems really high to me. Wonder what the building cost per square is for the developer?

Sold Out
August 29, 2019 12:30 pm

I feel for those trying to find something habitable in the Aug/Sept RE market. It seems like this is the time of year to put the trash out, like leaving that 1980 Barca-lounger at the curb with a free sign on it. We bought our present home in Aug 2017, and it stood out from the rest because it clearly wasn’t a recycled listing from the spring. There seems to be less competition for houses at this time of year, most families not wanting to uproot at the beginning of the school year.

Patrick
Patrick
August 29, 2019 11:38 am

Nearly 1% drop in mortgage rates from January. Or ~$400/month less for the average single family home in Victoria.

Right, and an article in the nationalpost.com with Fed Minister of Families claiming up to $286/month savings from the federal incentive (albeit on prices < $500K) https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/first-time-home-buyers-could-save-286-a-month-on-mortgage-payments-under-new-federal-program

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 29, 2019 11:37 am

There’s plenty going up in that area – keep looking and you’ll find something there your family likes. Definitely doesn’t pay to rush right now, though.

Cadborosaurus
Cadborosaurus
August 29, 2019 11:16 am

Local we’re in the same boat, renewed our pre-approval ‘just in case’ leading into the fall but I think better houses and better prices are coming up next year.

Looking for a 3+ bed/ 2+bath SFH likely Langford or Colwood

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 29, 2019 10:52 am

SFH Central/North Saanich

Barrister
Barrister
August 29, 2019 10:46 am

Local Fool: What are you looking for and in what neighbourhood?

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 29, 2019 9:56 am

Me neither.

In terms of house hunting, we’re at the point now where we’re contemplating a pre-approval just in case something comes up. It’s good for about 7 months apparently, so I’m thinking that from a buyer’s perspective there’s no harm in being prepared to move on something. Still virtually nothing that interests us though.

Jamal McRae
Jamal McRae
August 29, 2019 9:14 am

Why Condos are asking as much as the ones in YVR?–>> people are willing to pay for the location, the concrete structure and hope for it will keep going up

that is what they said about condos in vacouver a year ago

late30
late30
August 29, 2019 8:58 am

Herpa derp:

Why Condos are asking as much as the ones in YVR?–>> people are willing to pay for the location, the concrete structure and hope for it will keep going up

When I looked at the a few newer units here in downtown, the concrete ones are hitting about $890-$950/sqft.. still buyers buy….

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 29, 2019 8:56 am

Once the economy turns it’ll be another story but with a strong economy it’s like throwing gas on the fire again.

It could be. This is funny watching all of this, and in particular, what we’re seeing around the world with central banks racing to the bottom. I do question the durability of Poloz’s resolve to stay firm, especially with so much of the Y/C inverted.

I continue to believe we’re careening headlong into a recession caused by, or certainly exacerbated by, the dynamics in the housing market. On the other hand, central bankers are showing no inhibition at keeping asset prices as high as possible, for as long as they can possibly do it.

Given they can print indefinitely, it does beg the question.

Barrister
Barrister
August 29, 2019 8:30 am

LeoS: I suspect the low interest rate story is not going to end well for a lot of people.

Herpa derp
Herpa derp
August 29, 2019 6:20 am

Predictions on whether we’ll see a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in early September?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/no-need-for-bank-of-canada-to-cut-rates-national-bank-1.1307887

Sold Out
August 28, 2019 6:26 pm

A bit rich for me though

Yeah, the property taxes and upkeep would require a large jackpot 😉

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 28, 2019 6:20 pm

Nice house. A bit rich for me though. 🙂

Sold Out
August 28, 2019 6:13 pm

MLS 415136 – 2525 Beaufort Rd

If I hit the 649 tonight, I can see myself doing a little vultching.

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 28, 2019 6:09 pm

Sorry, I have no idea what that means. MLS?

Sold Out
August 28, 2019 6:06 pm

@Local Fool

Wakefield, the Elder.

Herpa derp
Herpa derp
August 28, 2019 6:06 pm

Condo listed for $599K sells for $490K as prices droop in Vancouver

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/condo-listed-for-599k-sells-for-490k-as-prices-droop-in-vancouver-1.4569615

Don’t get how condos here are asking same prices as Vancouver

Local Fool
Local Fool
August 28, 2019 6:05 pm

Sold out,

Which one is that?

Sold Out
August 28, 2019 5:59 pm

I see the home of one of Sidney’s long-time gen. contractors is for sale. I’ve also heard he is late on some bills. The sign of things to come, or just one man’s financial woes?

James Soper
James Soper
August 28, 2019 4:36 pm

Predictions on whether we’ll see a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in early September?

Nope. Inflation is high enough that they won’t.
And except for Vancouver, real estate isn’t fucked enough yet to warrant one.

Barrister
Barrister
August 28, 2019 12:40 pm

Notice a couple of articles indicating that tourism is down a bit this here with the exception of cruise ship passengers.

Herpa derp
Herpa derp
August 28, 2019 12:38 pm

So that just raised my curiosity on where one could have a suite and not worry about the neighbors calling one out on it.

Be nice and smile when you see neighbors .. that will usually do it..

Deb
Deb
August 28, 2019 10:31 am

Predictions on whether we’ll see a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in early September?

I expect so.

Introvert
Introvert
August 28, 2019 10:10 am

Predictions on whether we’ll see a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in early September?

James Soper
James Soper
August 28, 2019 9:23 am

Is there a map somewhere that shows where suites are/are not allowed? I came across a listing today that looked like a wink wink from the realtor on how to get around community bylaws. So that just raised my curiosity on where one could have a suite and not worry about the neighbors calling one out on it.

You should just call the municipality to ask.

RenterInParadise
RenterInParadise
August 28, 2019 9:14 am

Is there a map somewhere that shows where suites are/are not allowed? I came across a listing today that looked like a wink wink from the realtor on how to get around community bylaws. So that just raised my curiosity on where one could have a suite and not worry about the neighbors calling one out on it.

Deb
Deb
August 27, 2019 8:57 am

@guest_62586
Thanks

Chinves
Chinves
August 26, 2019 9:28 pm

Sales/list will rise some more by end of month because new listings are front loaded..

sorry … i am limited in real state jargon, what do you mean by front loaded? and how does it affect sales ? thanks in advance for explanation

Introvert
Introvert
August 26, 2019 8:09 pm
Patrick
Patrick
August 26, 2019 5:30 pm

So sales to new listings is down and months of inventory is up from last year. I think I am correct in say that.

From LeoS chart, and his estimates for the month, I see the opposite….
– Sales to new listing is up (63% vs 61% last year)
– MOI down 2854/694= 4.1 this year vs 4.2 last year.

Mt. Tolmie Foothills
Mt. Tolmie Foothills
August 26, 2019 5:28 pm

Barrister: You already live in a small town. Or at least, one with small town politics.

RenterInParadise
RenterInParadise
August 26, 2019 5:15 pm

I plan to not retire in this region.

Grant
Grant
August 26, 2019 5:06 pm

From the previous thread – there is a difference between a septic field and a septic tank. Some older places still have just septic tanks – no field. It’s just a big pot of pee and poo and you need a big honey wagon to regularly come suck it all out.
Others have septic fields, and those do typically have multiple chambers, as the waste goes through filtration from one tank to the next, and then at last stage gets pumped out into the yard/field somewhere. Even for fields, every 5 years or so each chamber does need a good bottom vacuuming to catch stuff that can’t go into the field.

Septic anything is a hassle and can have large bills- give me municipal sewage hookups please!

Barrister
Barrister
August 26, 2019 3:59 pm

I plan to move to a small town.

Josh
Josh
August 26, 2019 2:50 pm

Low interest rates and high prices are what we have. Come up with a plan and execute the plan.

I plan to wait.

gwac
gwac
August 26, 2019 1:31 pm

Intro that’s too easy. Much easier to come on to world wide web and complain about everything…

Deb
Deb
August 26, 2019 1:30 pm

So sales to new listings is down and months of inventory is up from last year. I think I am correct in say that.

Introvert
Introvert
August 26, 2019 1:24 pm

We can argue endlessly about which generation had/has it best. But at the end of day we’re all faced with the circumstances at hand and we must carve out a path.

Low interest rates and high prices are what we have. Come up with a plan and execute the plan.