Oct 29 Market Update
Closing in on the end of the month here, but before we get to the final numbers on Thursday, a quick update on the last week. It’s still a weird market out there, with a number of luxury properties last week selling for hundreds of thousands under ask, but the rest of the market more or less in a holding pattern for now.
| October 2018 |
Oct
2017
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Unconditional Sales | 151 | 276 | 395 | 536 | 664 |
| New Listings | 232 | 444 | 683 | 882 | 979 |
| Active Listings | 2551 | 2556 | 2567 | 2538 | 1905 |
| Sales to New Listings | 65% | 62% | 57% | 61% | 68% |
| Sales Projection | — | 650 | 604 | 610 | |
| Months of Inventory | 2.9 | ||||
29 presales were reported pending last week which goosed the numbers more than normal. With the massive pace of construction in Victoria, the presales that are reported on MLS will boost sales data and make those numbers higher than they otherwise should be. The issue with presales is that the number we see reported on MLS depends entirely on the developer. Some smaller developments list them all, but usually it is only a fraction or just a couple listings to entice people into the sales centre. So far the number of new construction sales have been pretty steady at 10% of total volume, but it’s another one of those variables that introduces noise into year over year comparisons and doesn’t reflect the strength of the underlying market so I will likely be factoring them out in some future comparisons.
On the single family side, the median sale is going for about 9% over assessment in the last 30 day period but it has hit that level a couple times for a week or two before and jumped back. There is certainly some seasonality in this measure as well as the less easily sold and less well maintained properties linger into the fall. Hard to tell for sure but if you adjusted for that, the drop from the spring would likely be only a couple percent real drop which matches the overall market conditions.
For a couple years now I’ve expressed doubt that interest rates will rise very quickly because rising rates would stress consumers and hit the economy which would keep the pace of increases slow. I’ve definitely underestimated the central bank’s willingness to hike rates in our annual prediction threads but I still believe the economy is quite sensitive to these interest rate hikes and we are starting to see that in recent indicators. As the price of real estate has ramped up in Victoria in recent years, the average mortgage for new purchases has as well to keep a pretty steady state of average loan to value for those taking out mortgages (~70%). About 75% of Victoria purchasers require a mortgage.
Now mortgage growth is slowing dramatically, while other indicators of the economy such as car loans are also turning down. Our neighbours to the south are seeing a drastic turnaround in their housing markets as well, falling very quickly from the overheated levels of the past couple years. It seems that the increasing rates are really starting to bite, despite a very strong employment picture.
@ Leo
Don’t understand what you think so difficult about restricting indebtedness. We have an agency, the OFSI, designed to do just that but it failed, with the consequence that house prices have escalated much more rapidly than incomes.
As to why OFSI, and by implication the political class, failed to restrain debt, the answer seems clear. There was too much money to be made by exporting the industrial sector of the economy to Mexico, China and other sweatshop economies, and a real estate boom was brought into existence to redress the balance.
So what next, now the industrial jobs have gone (except in the resource sector that our governments both provincial and federal seem intent on destroying) and folks can’t borrow any more? The next chapter in our economic history may prove the force of that Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times.”
October numbers https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/10/31/halloween-update/
When I worked for VIHA if I finished all the work within my job description it is not like I would pick up a mop and start cleaning the floors. Running a small business if it is slow my assistant and I will clean the floors and I’ll skip having a cleaner come in. If it is crazy busy in the spring I’ll just call the cleaner in as needed.
This is why I have beef with Ben wanting to unionize and bring in house traffic control. Demand varies on season, number of projects, etc., it seems like something that would be best left to contract on an ongoing basis as needed.
Same with IT, I run my own website and if there is an issue and I have time I’ll try to trouble shoot it on the WordPress forums and if I am busy I hire someone to trouble shoot it. Government you just call the IT person even if you have nothing to do.
The city building affordable housing would be one huge disaster from start to finish. First of all Ben and Lisa would insist the building have giant balconies (they sent back the Ironworks project because they didn’t feel enough units had balconies) leading to some complicated engineering consideration that drives up the build cost. They would fumble the contract with the GC guaranteed. GCs aren’t dumb, but the city is, so you know they would take advantage of the situation for sure. They would insist on a GC that uses unionized labour so the project would be a year behind schedule, etc.
The bridge was a design that was first introduced in 1893; short span; relatively easy logistics; built during a time when construction costs were flat and they still went $40+ million over-budget.
Congrats! Enjoy your new home (and packing + unpacking boxes).
From working in various industries, there is nothing like a client spending other people’s money. Government does it best.
The large corps avoiding taxes with offshore havens and really doing no benefit to the local economy or tax system aside, there will come a point in time where productive people make like John Galt.
All of a sudden the energy and risk won’t make sense.
We have ended up with a system bloated with more admin than actual producers. I sincerely hope it turns around.
Not a lot in the last three recessions it seems
People don’t care about warnings. They have been warning about low rates for close to a decade with no effect.
“Poloz was out warning folks yesterday, specifically ones that over-leveraged on real estate, to watch out, because he’s going to be hiking the rates anyways.”
Would have been more useful to offer such warning when he was cutting the rates. Better still, he could have advocated for stricter control on lending when he was cutting rates. Warning folks now is simply arse covering.
@ Renter In Paradise
I think the key point is, “if public transportation is functional within an area”. Manhatten has a fabulous subway system, Vancouver and Victoria have terrible public transportation overall, with the exception of the skytrain. I believe it was about 40 years ago, Vancouver had the opportunity to put together a good subway system and nixed the idea. Now, they have terrible traffic. Vic, not much better going out to Langford. Unless both cities implement significant improvements to their transit structure, or walkability in neighborhoods, I just don’t see people abandoning their cars. Can you imagine putting your dog in a shared vehicle, and the last dog in there had fleas? Ugh, no thanks.
The idea that small business owners are poor because they allocate capital poorly probably seems funny to most of those who have started a small business, the problem in most cases being not poor capital allocation, but simply a lack of capital. Moreover, a lack of capital may often be the catalyst for innovation that makes a small business profitable. But often not on the first attempt at creating a business.
In my career, which spanned about a dozen jobs and businesses, I worked briefly for three governments, and my experience supports the notion that government employees have, in general, a cushy life, although there are workaholic civil servants, too. Mostly, the objective of life in the public sector is to increase the budget so as to increase the number of one’s subordinates, thereby raising oneself in the hierarchy.
Because of this dynamic, all government is inherently expensive and wasteful of human resources. Government is a necessary evil and a constant threat to the public interest and should at all times be held under the strictest restraint.
@Bingo
Until someone hacks the system….
Would it be helpful if I reposted the graph that shows what happens to immigration levels in Canada when there is a recession, especially in housing?
Immigration target rising to 350,000/year by 2012, up from 310,000 now.
I think our construction industry will be busy for a while yet.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-immigration-increase-350000-1.4886546
“The lion’s share of the new admissions under Canada’s immigration levels plan — 72 per cent — will be allocated to economic programs in 2021.”
@Leo S and all HHV people, thanks for the insight. Conditions are off on my old and our new homes.
Best advice I received from a friend, don’t be cheap (there are few good homes for sale) and best from the blog is basically don’t be greedy (don’t concentrate on assessment or expect bidding wars, be happy with a reasonable buyer).
Happy Halloween cheers to hoping our new home isn’t haunted!!!
As usual, not a lot of trick-or-treat action in my part of Gordon Head.
Saw this on the news:
Nanaimo couple’s retirement plans on hold after leaking oil tank discovered
https://www.cheknews.ca/nanaimo-couples-retirement-plans-on-hold-after-leaking-oil-tank-discovered-504228/
Much to my delight and appreciation. Laughed out loud.
Leo, did you know that REBGV (Vancouver) President Phil Moore recently joined Bill Ferguson’s MV Housing Collapse page on Facebook? Kind of odd, and he’s fairly active on the site, too. It’s got thousands of people on it. He’s not really even doing much debunking or being argumentative; just comments with a bit of pump here and there. Good place to get at least one, echoey side of market intelligence, perhaps. Kind of like a clearinghouse for bad news and bearish sentiment. He asked the members, “I only have a 135 days left in my one year term but would be open to any suggestions to restore some form of public confidence in our profession.” What a great reach-out, IMO.
Aside, Poloz was out warning folks yesterday, specifically ones that over-leveraged on real estate, to watch out, because he’s going to be hiking the rates anyways. The only question is how fast. Most people will be fine. Of course, “most people” are never what causes the issue…
Builder from the mainland said that a lot of his friends that leveraged up and bought multiple lots are getting pretty nervous. Inventory not moving, banks getting nervous. He worked through 2008 and learned his lesson but said most people just kept leveraging up.
@guest_51240 that sounds like a response from government ML3 or someone who works for a big bank. A little humility goes a long way for the people who provide jobs and tax dollars from scratch, even if it is in an inefficient social democracy where we acknowledge the trade offs from free market capitalism are inefficient. I wouldn’t try to lecture small business owners about labour efficiency and capital usuage unless I have ever had the buck stop at me during a recession as the head of a major Corp or head of finance for government and even then I would think twice.
You didn’t try to rebut what I said, in fact you implicitly confirmed it by pointing out the high failure rate among small business, and then went off on a tangential rant.
Except possibly Edmonton.
Then you will be happy anywhere…
Dasmo: My true love is my wife. The house is just where we live. Frankly whether we stay or go does not really matter since most of the planned development will never occur or at least be completed in my lifetime. Our motivator to move is that my wife wants to be near family and her roots and is not a reflection on Victoria. But a good question was asked here as to what makes Victoria more desirable than Vancouver or Toronto.
You are right. Actually, why don’t we just convert Beacon Hill and Cedar Hill Golf Course into two enormous tent cities while the affordable housing is being built. Invite all the homeless from around Canada and BAM!, problem solved. Even better, housing prices in Victoria and Saanich would correct really quickly!
(Sorry, my cynicism circuit seems to be broken today).
Spoken like someone who (I assume) has never run a small business. I have 2 failed businesses under my belt and 1 successful one. Small business is both thrilling and terrifying, an eat or be eaten venture. With the exception of all types of contractors here on the island (I jest, only slightly) to have a successful small business you need a fantastic product or service and you also need top notch marketing and sales. Once the business gets going you can, to a very limited extent, run on name recognition and repeat sales, but that service/product better stay good. Government? It just sets the laws and the tax rates and watches the money come in. There is zero hustle to get that tax money, and often there is poor or very bad justification for what the taxes are and why spending is as it is. (As a new resident, BC’s sales tax on used vehicles and the PTT has to be one of the grossest abuses of taxation I’ve seen.) When there is no concern about revenue coming in, it’s like going to Vegas and playing with house money. Where’s the incentive to save and innovate? There isn’t one and it’s why you have so many conservative individuals livid about government.
I firmly believe that a successful and equitable society needs a strong and forward thinking government, with progressive but fair taxation. I also think there is way too little accountability in government and that budgets deserve way more scrutiny. These stereotypes about cushy government jobs exist for a very valid reason.
Don’t think so. Would work better to convert it all to social housing for Vancouver’s east-side residents, who’d move over. Probably would have to convert most of James Bay, too.
Christmas Hill has already been ruined.
What a great plan! We can cure the “problem” of everyone wanting to live in Victoria by destroying what make Victoria beautiful!
First we should convert all of Beacon Hill Park, Cedar Hill golf course, Christmas Hill, and Mt Tolmie into luxury apartments. Mt Doug is next, although the slopes will be hard, the views will be brilliant. Next we can lobby to get rid of all the ALR farmland on the whole south island. Along with removing all SFH and replacing them with “infill” this should solve all our housing affordability problems…
/s
And what that comment tells me is that you likely have no experience running a successful small business.
“If many of them have to work harder and longer than employees of private sector businesses that tells me they are not allocating capital and labour efficiently.”
Out in the jungle(real world) it is hard to earn a dollar and you have to bust your but. The old saying goes, your business won’t work unless you do. There are no flex days when you own a business and no paid breaks.
So now that you’re leaving us who cares? I hope you find true love with your next home….
Depends on where they are in their development…
Private mortgage refinancing in Toronto surged 67% since 2016
A new report says 20 per cent of refinancing mortgage transactions in Toronto in Q2 were sourced from private lenders, a 67 per cent increase from just two years ago. For more, BNN Bloomberg spoke with John Pasalis, president and broker of record at Realosophy Realty.
https://www.movesmartly.com/hubfs/Market%20Insight%20Report_Oct_Final.pdf?t=1540922145329
I may be wrong, but I don’t believe you’re reading that graph correctly Leo.
If many of them have to work harder and longer than employees of private sector businesses that tells me they are not allocating capital and labour efficiently.
My observation is that small business owners work far harder and longer than those in the public sector and than employees. In order for this attract future entrepreneurs and encourage innovation and efficiency, there needs to be motivation in the form of some sort of potential for pay-off long-term given the risks. And the risks are pretty high.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with a high income earner creating a small business even if it assists them with tax planning. It should imo.
re: flex days
Some people do, some don’t. Your job description is considered here. If you’re required to be in the office for certain periods of time, then you may not have option for flexible work schedule. Same with flexible hours.
AZ: Glad you noticed the difference. I probably should not have an opinion since I will not be paying for it. Off to a small town without even a Starbucks to its name. Not sure how I will ever manage.
I’ll assume that he said that in context of whether tax increases in the given year should come more from commercial or residential taxes. Victoria mill rate is currently 18.2 for businesses (3.5x residential rate). Saanich is 19.3 (3.9x residential). Business friendly Langford is 14.6 (2.92x residential).
Should it be 15, or 10, or 5? I have no idea but it doesn’t seem like Victoria is currently punishing businesses more than neighbouring munis. The reality is it’s a tradeoff and that balance between residential and commercial sources of tax revenue is informed by current economic conditions.
Incorporated small businesses have had a tax break for some time, it’s called the small business deduction, and it has not lead, by and large, small businesses to become ‘large’ businesses (in excess of 500 employees). Beyond that, encouraging business in a capitalist society is foundational – jobs are created, income grows, all of which means more money for the government.
Introvert
No one, but it seems like something highly likely in the distant future.
Eliminating humans mean eliminating the need to predict humans and allows removing a lot legacy traffic control. Traffic control can be negotiated on the fly (possibly distributed or decentralized or maybe even centralized, lots of ways to solve that) where lights are no longer needed, stop signs no longer needed etc. Cars merge perfectly, no stop and go etc etc.
Bad drivers aren’t going to voluntarily give up driving. Most bad drivers think they are excellent drivers. The person texting on their phone drifting between two lanes? They think they are the exception to the rule, “I’m a great driver and can text and drive no problem! The rule doesn’t apply to me!”
In any case it would make a good car chase scene in a scifi movie. The protaganist overrides and car and escapes dodging through flocks of self driving vehicles causing chaos.
Leo S
What are these people spending this money on? Is it to give a child a down payment? Is it bills? Luxuries?
Covering full cost or not is irrelevant from the eyes of the university – universities charge them what they can, not because they should be paying full cost. They are certainly not multiplying on campuses for the traditional reasons – diversity and enrichment of the intellectual talent pool. In summation I call that bilking.
How many in B.C. have a HELOC balance?
You might win the mayorship on that platform but you would need a majority of councillors on-side to make the fiscal examination happen.
Changing them full costs is not what I would call “bilking”. In fact, there are a lot of people who claim that international students are not being charged full costs.
As if there were no choice except one or the other. Further to that, giving special tax breaks to small businesses encourages large businesses, and high income earners, to financially engineer themselves into small businesses.
When I looked at it leasing didn’t make sense financially for any tax bracket if you would otherwise buy a two year old car that has experienced some depreciation. Tax benefits don’t make up for this difference, plus there is a mileage cap on leases and other rules to worry about re. damage.
I don’t think we are going to see Victoria car ownership rates plummet, although they will probably decrease a bit. We have a long way to go before there are parking issues like there are in Manhattan. If decisions about cars were rational, there would be a lot more small cars on the road and a lot fewer SUVs.
What an annoying statement.
The average pay for a Small Business Owner / Operator is C$59,308 per year. Data from Statistics Canada show that two-thirds of Canadian small business owners are earning less than $73,000, and employers earning less than $40,000 outnumber those earning more than $250,000 by four to one.
Small business owners are much more likely to work longer hours than employees. More than 40 per cent of small business owners work 50-plus hours a week. No flex days, no public pension.
Small businesses employ about 70% of private sector workers – or 8 million people. All levels of government should be making efforts to make it attractive to be a small business owner – rather than a government employee – if they want a healthy economy.
Government (municipal to federal) budgets and salaries have been one of the longest running scams out there. Universities have in recent years joined in on this financial Wild West and instead of heading to the nearest methadone clinic they have continued to push the needle, averting the lowly depths of petty theft to support the habit by finding cash nirvana in the form of international students.
I’m going to run for mayor in the next election. I’ll run on a platform of taking a nickel in annual compensation and a promise to examine every outlay with a microscope in one hand and a financial axe in the other.
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/peter-wylie-seats-for-sale-at-ubc-but-not-to-canadian-students
https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/former-governor-general-adrienne-clarkson-still-bills-more-than-100000-a-year-in-expenses/wcm/a10807e7-e1ad-432e-a2f7-f52ed576c78d
It will happen and ever so gradually. As areas become more dense, driving more of a hassle, and the costs of car ownership a drain given reality of actual usage, you’ll start to see more and more people without a car. It doesn’t mean they won’t drive but car sharing & car rentals become more of the norm. If public transportation is functional within an area, that also contributes to a decline in ownership. Check out the stats on car ownership in Manhatten:
https://www.addressreport.com/blog/manhattan-neighborhoods-with-the-most-cars/
So what about the largest generation, the millenials? Well it’s complicated:
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-millennials-cars-20161223-story.html
For the tl;dr crowd, the above article dives into the numbers for millenial car ownership and it’s a little concerning for auto manufacturers. Millenials are delaying car ownership and even delaying getting a drivers license in large enough numbers to take notice. (60% of 18 yo millenials vs 80% in the 1980’s) Also, interest in autonomous features in cars is taking precedence as is price & practicality.
As more options for transport become available, there will be less and less need to actually own a car. People don’t always love to drive 🙂
@guest_51261
I can’t believe you are advocating for the city to build along Dallas Rd. for someone who thinks Victoria has “lost it’s charm” that would certainly be a quick way to accomplish it. Parks should remain parks, particularly along the waterfront so all can enjoy it.
The city already has a big stretch of parkland on Dallas road why not just build the housing there. You could build hundreds of units on less than 10% of the park,
Monk is local too so the money stays here vs Amazon and G&T
Devils advocate.. Their spend at Monk is $24k/month. For 900 some employees. I assume if you are spending $5k/month for what I would imagine is a small business (20 people?) then either they are getting most of their office supplies elsewhere or they got a good deal for being a big buyer.
Because they can’t weather the downturn. Something that wouldn’t apply to the city.
Completely agree. The city is proposing getting into land acquisition and planning new housing with other provincial/federal money. I very much doubt they are interested in getting into the nitty gritty of managing the building process itself.
Where’s the vast majority of the expertise though? Not at the city. Take a P3 project like the sewage plant. Did the CRD have to learn how to design a sewage plant? No of course not. The expertise to design and build it is from Graham/AECOM. HRMG is doing the solids plant, Kenaidan the pumping station.
What the CRD needs and has hired is good project managers. Certainly this costs money and you have to find the right people but at the same time it’s not rocket science.
Residential multi unit is much simpler than large infrastructure.
@guest_51260
That pisses me off so much. My office supply budget is 5k a month and use Madill, Amazon and Grand and Toy. Monk only if we’re super desperate. Would easily be spending 10k a month if we bought it all from Monk.
Private sector counts their pennies so fuckwits like Ben Isitt can take them and spend them how he sees fit.
Tbh the local government doesn’t piss me off nearly as much as his attitude towards businesses.
@Leo S City managers can develop bridges too but the first time has the steepest learning and cost curve. Yes it is not dark majic just so tough most developers go out of business every business cycle. A city would have to spend millions in internal time learning, building systems and hiring experts, much less the costly endless debates they would have when things go wrong. Developers that have good systems are well set up for building multi family residential are the only ones who should be tackling these projects with the exception maybe of a new non profits with experience. The ability of a good developer to squeeze contractors to keep costs low is amazing, vs what gets done on a flex day (sorry but I couldn’t resist). Ps not a developer just a believer that government is good at planning and business is good at building.
We’re not that sheltered on our little island…or are we? Haha.
For the benefit of the Islanders, “West Vancouver” is the City of West Vancouver, which lies across English Bay from the City of Vancouver. The area of the City of Vancouver which has “West” in the street addresses is called the “West Side”. 🙂
Please, capital is a huge part of the equation and if the city has a way to finance it then get money from the province for the build that’s the biggest barrier gone.
Also they don’t need to worry about the city’s approval since they are the city.
Building is not some kind of dark magic that only private developers can do.
Interest rate hikes will have an immediate effect on those people. Too lazy to do the math on what the monthlies on a 124K balance look like @ 0.5% vs 1.75%, or at a projected neutral rate.
Did we post this? Can’t recall. Average HELOC balance (for those that have a balance) is $124,000 in BC. Holy moly.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/housing-observer-online/2018-housing-observer/home-equity-lines-of-credit-use-in-canada
And for the latest Vancouver RE horror show…
3868 West 23rd Avenue
Assessed at $4,317,000
Sold May 2017 for $4,475,000
Attempted to flip for $4,780,000, no takers. Reduced to $4,380,000, no takers. Tried the Chinese lucky number routine and reduced to $3,888,000 – again, no takers.
Now asking $3,780,000.
If it sells at current asking, that is a direct loss to the seller of $695,000 plus carrying and offloading costs.
If it sells. Which in West Vancouver, right now…ya…not very likely.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/19387621/4-bedroom-single-family-house-3868-w-23rd-avenue-vancouver
“Sales volumes lead house price declines. In Los Angeles sales volumes peaked in November 1988 and fell by 50% in a year and a half. Yet prices actually accelerated before ultimately flatlining and eventually declining in June 1991.”
@Renter In Paradise
Perhaps, but don’t see it happening any time soon. People love to drive. Not to mention, if someone has kids or a dog, don’t think they’re going to be keen on car sharing.
@guest_51300
I read and enjoyed the Strong Towns article you linked about public engagement in city design projects. The article is quite long, but the end summarizes well:
“Consultation is a very small part of the overall process, but can be useful and important.
We need to be more aware of different kinds of expertise, and who has it. Each expert—engineer, resident, or designer—only specializes in a narrow field, and we mustn’t ask them to do each other’s jobs.
Otherwise, we disrespect everybody involved, and we corrode goodwill and trust on all sides.”
Proportional Representation, just saying the words gets adrenaline flowing in some people.
Does anyone know how, or if, PR will affect real estate prices, affordable housing, foreign buyers, real estate ‘investors’, landlords or tenants, or any other aspect of the real estate market? Did PR affect real estate in other countries after being enacted?
“Do not understand why citizens of Saanich would want anything to do with Victoria. Victoria yes I get it, the inner city costs are only going to get higher and having someone else foot the bill helps.”
As a resident of Victoria, I voted no on the question. Saanich is too big and too much of it rural/suburban. I fear we would be overrun by anti-development geezers and NIMBYs. No thanks to amalgamation.
@guest_51260
Why can’t they get it finished? A shortage of workers to do the remaining work?
You’ll have to put millennial me into the ground, too. I love driving.
Also, who said anything about prohibiting manually driven cars altogether? Geezers, bad drivers, and reluctant drivers can choose self-driving cars and the rest of us not.
Heaven forbid anyone earns a decent wage.
they spent 20k a day average (250 business days) at the Fairmont. Doing what exactly? That’s 66 people a day at 300 dollars.
Where else are you going to put up bike lane consultants from around the world?
they spent 20k a day average (250 business days) at the Fairmont. Doing what exactly? That’s 66 people a day at 300 dollars.
Amazing hotel….Great place to stay.
Marko that was entertaining. How did they spend 5m at the Fairmont express? Over 6m in different type of grants. That was some report.
Obviously, they would be getting hosed by a bunch of suppliers including Fairmont. If you run a business and the COV calls you up for something you probably aren’t offering a discount, or you make up some sort of discount but it isn’t really a discount.
They spent 288k at Monk Office Supply while I am at Costco loading up on boxes of paper along side my boneless chicken and I am ordering knock-off Brother Ink cartirges off some shady internet website.
Best to leave development to the private sector imo.
Marko that was entertaining. How did they spend 5m at the Fairmont express? Over 6m in different type of grants. That was some report.
Most people working for the city can’t afford to live here unless they bought ages ago.
You can say that for the majority of the working population.
https://www.victoria.ca/assets/City~Hall/2017%20SOFI.pdf
Start at page #38…..those are some really solid salaries imo and when you factor in benefits, flex Fridays, sick days, etc., you can’t really find that elsewhere.
Some of the titles too
“Head of Strategic Real Estate” – 136k
I am not against affordable housing or shelter housing. Just wondering if it is a never ending problem where you build and it just creates more demand and you will never find an end solution this way.
Not saying it should not be done just wondering what the end game is. Gov has bought every available motel and that seems to have done nothing…
Maybe having to have lived in the province/city for a certain period of time to get it..
If this is what you wanted, you could have continued with your fat salary from nursing.
I have a ton of respect for nurses……..three months to turn around a simple building permit that somehow takes 7 days in Langford, not so much.
If Stu Young had an idea to build affordable housing that would make sense. Current COV elected officials + current culture at city hall…..expect a total disaster like the bridge.
You flex one day every 2 weeks if you work extra time. You’re actually working (slightly) more hours that if you didn’t flex.
The point is you have the option. If a developer is running 6 months behind schedule on a project and burning millions in interest there are no flex Fridays, it is all hands on deck…you are lucky if you get Saturdays off.
Quite likely. The point is they are made available on a more affordable basis not that the construction costs less.
I would be down with this if it was in Rock Bay or something, but the council will probably pick up land adjacent to family friendly Beacon Hill Park and by affordable basis Ben will want one bedrooms $750/month and two beds at $1000/month.
I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t then get a GC to run the construction itself.
If it were only as easy as buying a piece of land and hiring a GC….everyone would be a developer.
Most people working for the city can’t afford to live here unless they bought ages ago.
You flex one day every 2 weeks if you work extra time. You’re actually working (slightly) more hours that if you didn’t flex. If this is what you wanted, you could have continued with your fat salary from nursing.
Quite likely. The point is they are made available on a more affordable basis not that the construction costs less.
I definitely am not a fan of the city getting into construction project management but buying land and then getting funding to support affordable housing seems like a decent plan. I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t then get a GC to run the construction itself.
Could be good
But it won’t be……I went to a few events during the election and some of these elected officials can barely hold a pencil and while city staff might be a bit smarter they have zero motivation to get things done on time and budget. Who cares when you are guaranteed a fat salary and flex Fridays. Ben will also probably ask that all traffic control working on the affordable housing site are unionized.
Right now, Bosa, a developer with decades of experience, is likely burning in excess of $500,000 in interest/month on the Encore and they can’t get it finished.
This has Bridge 2.0 written all over it……….once built and completed it will be revealed the each “affordable” housing unit cost more than a market condo unit.
Victoria considering buying land for affordable housing https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/9slle4/city_councillor_calls_for_victoria_to_buy_land/
Could be good but I do wonder if they might not be better off waiting on these projects for the industry to slow down to get better pricing on the builds and land
No one want a 4 year old BMW….Not cool.
We are entering the cycle where appearances start to get even harder…
That why expensive homes become a lot cheaper…and the kids may have to get use to the common kids at lunch…
An interesting site, new to me, and worth sharing, I think. Relevant especially with the recent elections and discussions of amalgamation.https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/most-public-engagement-is-worse-than-worthless?fbclid=IwAR1LkA441RGrajt4iS7l2aZEQUd-dqLPoyg2p603KLYCefX3ZTAfSIsUaA0#disqus_thread
than the 2018 BMW series 7 driver
What kind of knob buys a brand new 7 series. Those go from 120k to 20k in three years 🙂 and then it is still a bad buy as maintenance nightmare.
No argument Marko…We just differ in our circles and what people use Leases for. Has nothing to do with cash availability.
Ability to keep up with the Jones and always have something new to impress is unfortunately the kind of acquaintances I have. Moral of my story. Appearances are not always the true story. That guy driving a 10 year old f150 and living in a modest house may have more of his act together than the 2018 BMW series 7 driver with a house in the uplands sending his kids to Glen or Mikes.
My point is it doesn’t always make sense to pay with cash even if you have it.
Marko
While your points are valid. Most people I know walk away from their lease and lease another. Always want the new vehicle. I pay cash buy when the dealers want to unload and keep for a long time. My vehicles are always offset so I have a relatively newer one for longer journeys.
Leasing for tax/business purposes Ok that is not for suckers especially on a high income.
Agree Leo. Although I look at the CRD and the difficulty they had with one major project. BC gov had to get involved. You are more optimistic than me.. I doubt it will ever happen in my lifetime..
Thinking about your point Leo. That project may have been easier to do with one city.
Leasing is for suckers
Let’s say I have $60,000 cash and I want to buy a car for personal use.
All in purchase price is $50,000+tax = $56,000 and I drive it off the lot.
Or I lease it at 0.9 or 1.9% for 48 months with a $22,000 residual.
With the lease
– You can invest your cash
– If you want to keep the car for 10 years you just buy it out after 48 months and continue with your ownership. The invested funds should have offset the cost of borrowing.
– If you decide you don’t like the car after 48 months you can return it and you’ll have taken less of a tax hit as you only pay tax on the lease payments, not the entire $50,000.
– If you like the car, but the market value is $18,000 just return it and buy one for $18,000 instead of buying it out at $22,000.
– If you don’t like the car, but the market value is higher than $22,000+tax buy it out and re-sell it or assign the lease, for profit, to someone a few months before buyout.
Everyone is making the false assumption that you can get a cash purchase discount equivalent to the cost of financing buydown for the manufacturer. Even thought this a perfectly logical assumption it isn’t how real life works. 100s of examples….
For example, you’ve been banking with TD for 20 years. You have $200,000 invested via TD Waterhouse, etc., and you go apply for a mortgage at the branch. They come back and say we will give you our best rate of 3.29% for 5 years.
You call a mortgage broker and he or she comes back with 3.29 for 5 years with TD. This makes no sense as TD is paying him or her approx. 0.20%; therefore, they should have offered you 3.09% at the branch.
Another example, condo pre-sales. I once emailed around 90 developments across Canada asking if they would discount the purchase price equivalent to the buyer’s REALTORS® commission if I used no representation. 89 answered no, one answered maybe.
Not very logical, but it is the way things are.
Bingo
It is not American. 🙂
A vehicle is just transportation for me..It runs I am good (I still will buy new).
gwac
Impressive. What vehicle? Pretty safe bet it’s not a Land Rover.
Keeping a new vehicle can make sense but you have to do the math (which I’m certain very few people do). Depreciation varies from vehicle to vehicle as do maintenance costs (which can be difficult to predict on a new model or you could end up with a lemon). Then you have to determine how long you are going to keep it (which may or may not pan out).
We bought one of our vehicles new. With discounts at the time combined with low depreciation the back of the napkin calcs showed it to be a better deal than one a couple years old (especially if you put value in the bumper to bumper portion of the new car warranty). The general rule is you are best off buying a year or two old vehicle so the first owner takes the hit on the worst part of the depreciation curve. That generalization works pretty well and I’d argue definitely works for luxury vehicles , but it’s a generalization.
Of course the monkey wrench thrown into the equation was a major accident that caused accelerated depreciation. As long as we hold onto the vehicle a bit longer than planned it was still a good buy. ICBC doesn’t do accelerated deprecation, I mean, they won’t pay it out of court and it’s rare to recover it in court unless you realize the loss (and can show fairly definitively you got $X less than you should have had the vehicle not been in an accident).
What I like about new vehicles is I know the maintenance history. Deferred maintenance is a car killer. A vehicle that could last 300K+ won’t make it anywhere near that if it’s neglected.
As we (as a society) shift to electric vehicles I think this will be less of an issue. Run a battery health check, get it up on a lift by a shop that can recognize suspension and/or frame damage and you should be good to go.
Next step (as RenterInParadise pointed out) is not actually owning a vehicle at all. I think that’s inevitable, but due to the legal aspects or self driving vehicles. There are already issues with maintaining your own Tesla (check out Rich Rebuilds). When you buy an electric car there is a question about what you are buying as part of it is software (you are basically licensing the software). Tesla will remotely pull features from written-off vehicles (autopilot, free supercharging etc) under the premise of safety. It makes sense from a liability standpoint. If you are liable for self driving features you want to ensure the vehicle is in a proper state to safely perform self driving.
I’m sure an interim step will be people still “buying” electric cars, but putting them into a car-share pool while not being used (that way capital costs are still on the consumer). Of course “buying” will be more like buying rights to exclusive use as I’m sure all useful features will be bricked once you end your service contract. We’ll have to see where legislation goes as that’s going to shape the industry to some degree. Will manually driven vehicles be prohibited at some point in my lifetime? I’m pretty sure we’ll have to put all the boomers into the ground before that happens ;).
You have to consider the entire economic costs though. Might not save money for the city itself, but I bet if you consider the economic drag on private industry from having to deal with two sets of governance you come out ahead. Also hard to quantify advantages like a larger centre being able to tackle larger infrastructure projects that might otherwise never get built.
Amalgamated Victoria and Saanich would still not be very large as far as cities go. Definitely nothing like the scope of the Toronto amalgamation which included 6 munis.
@Leo S
Any specific data on air quality there?
It makes sense that the air would be affected by the plane exhaust, but it also depends on the wind which seems to blow mostly away from the city.
@ Leo S:
“I’m serious about the electrification of transport though.”
At a rough calculation, four million electric motor vehicles in BC would require one to two GW of continuous power, or one to two times the planned output at site C, so electrification of all of BC’s road transportation in ten years is, at least theoretically, just about possible.
But that won’t happen unless either batteries become much cheaper and lighter or city dwellers adopt vehicles closer to a golf cart than a Tesla.
As it is available electric cars are too expensive for most people, and even at several times the price of a regular car, electric cars lack the range that many people require. On a recent road trip to Prince George I didn’t see a single electric vehicle beyond the outskirts of Vancouver. Mostly there were trucks, pickups, flatbeds and semis, and the current generation of electric truck just doesn’t have the range that Canadian truckers require.
Leo in theory amalgamation sounds great but in practice usually the worst of the cities get passed on to the whole. Toronto had a hard time with unions and eventually had to adopt the highest costs for the who area. It is not a money saver and it slows things down in process. 100% against..
If you don’t like wind in Victoria you need to avoid the southern waterfront. Basically anywhere between Saxe Point and South Oak Bay. Even living a couple blocks inland from the water front is still cold and windy in Esquimalt, Vic west, James Bay, Fairfield and SOB.
Dallas road is only busy by Victoria standards. In any sizeable city it would barely be considered a secondary road. After dark it is practically abandoned especially outside summer months.
Still to each his own. Buying on Dallas Road was never a consideration for me because of $$. Living a few blocks inland still feels like the best of both worlds except that I can’t watch whales cavort from my kitchen and I need to crawl out the skylight and stand on the roof if I want water views. Can still easily carry a paddle board or kayak to the water.
I believe the point of the question on the ballot was to ask the voters and he has little choice but to do the study now. I think the regions are similar enough that it could work out. And fewer different jurisdictions will save money overall even if not in municipal budgets then at least for private industries dealing with more harmonized regulations
Correction after reading more stuff it seems Fred wants to go through the process of the study on amalgamation. Not really sure where he really stands..
Do not understand why citizens of Saanich would want anything to do with Victoria. Victoria yes I get it, the inner city costs are only going to get higher and having someone else foot the bill helps.
I think Fred is not so keen on amalgamation. Never understood why Saanich would want to be in bed with Victoria.
I personally miss Frank Leonard (and the council of those days). I never understood the antipathy towards him. Saanich used to run like a well-oiled machine. Leonard and crew also bought and preserved a lot of park land (the anti-Langford approach) including Blenkinsop Lake and environs, Panama Flats, and most of Haro Woods by way of a land swap with the CRD.
Tire and wind noise should be minimal when lower speed limits are adopted. Other forms of traffic calming will help too.
Dallas road dogs are a plus in my books. If I lived walking distance to that part of Dallas road I would just get a dog myself and we could all run amuck together. But it is too busy a road even in my books.
Electric busses have gone past my place and it’s such a relief not having them roar and rattle my apt as they take off. I believe the local BC transit electric bus trial is over – not sure what the results are or how many they’ll buy but I hope it’s a lot.
Not quite impossibly long :-). 3 months ago sold my 1989 Toyota Camry – still drove great and bought it new off the lot all those years ago. Didn’t owe me a penny.
I expect with the advent of self-driving cars and expanded car-sharing that one day, car ownership will be a thing of the past. Do we really need these depreciating assets taking up space in the driveway?
Still quite a bit of engine noise at intersections. Its more about the pollution though. Very bad for your health.
I agree with this. I look forward to the electric future, but tire noise is louder than people think, especially in the rain. Areas around traffic lights and bus stops will be way better, though.
New is fine as long as you are wealthy enough to buy with cold hard cash. Borrowing money for a depreciating asset is a sucker’s game.
New is fine as long as you keep it for a long time. 15 years for me…300k km. I like to know what I am getting and always keep it until death. Buying in the fall when they are getting ride of last years model is the best time.
Leasing is for suckers… I know someone on their second 3 year lease 1100 dollars a month. 75k and nothing at the end… Its a 80k vehicle and they only do 10k km a year.
I could never understand the appeal of a new car to some people. The closest I have come to it was buying a new last years model at a 30% discount. I also keep cars for an impossibly long time. My 2001 has over 400k on it and still runs perfectly.
Depends. Sam Walton famously bought a Ford pickup new which he drove for 13 years until his death. There can be value in buying new if the vehicle has the features you need and then you drive it until it owes you nothing.
https://social.ford.com/en_US/story/vehicle-type/truck/sam-waltons-iconic-1979-ford-f-150-custom.html
PS: I pulled out the “want” in the above section because I realized that there are many who want an expensive car but don’t need to spend that kind of money on transportation. 🙂
https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/how-buying-used-cars-could-save-you-$100000
The author of Millionaire Teacher: The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School (2nd Ed. Wiley 2017)
Interesting but not my view of the soon-to-be ex-mayor and the mayor-elect. Atwell was a drama queen front and center. I watched a few of the council meetings and after reading his comments in SaanichNews after losing, it reinforced that view I have of him.
Haynes will be an interesting, no-nonsense mayor IMHO. His background as an 8th-degree black belt in Aikido, should serve him well. Aikido is a martial art grounded in defense & harmony.
https://www.timescolonist.com/islander/saanich-mayor-fred-haynes-he-has-a-martial-arts-black-belt-studies-harmony-1.23478648
Saanich desperately needs a leader. These last 4 years have been a mess to watch. Fingers-crossed that with new faces on council and a new mayor, there will be positive action on housing & transportation.
A lot of places downtown will become more desirable/comfortable without the noise and pollution of internal combustion engines.
I would think this more so applies to places close to buses and commercial truck traffic. Modern IC personal cars are really quiet and most of the noise comes from wind and tire noise. When a Nissan Leaf goes by you on Quadra I am guessing it is generating the same level of noise as an IC Nissan Versa.
In a place like Victoria we’ll already see a large percentage of the traffic be electric within 10 years.
It’s going to come quickly especially around 2021 or 2022 imo.
Nice to see the rich giving back at 1212 Dallas Road, the cost of relocating, buying and selling a house like that is astronomical to me. Had to vote it up, I have spent tons of time on Dallas but the sport bikes, Harley’s and diesel buses is enough to remove any desire to live there anytime in this life, compared to Gordon head beaches. The 25-30% premium for property in the area is amazing, even with taco burger from the beagle in walking distance.
Second Sweet Home’s view on SWM (Michael Moore Reference). Saanich replaced a combative white male with a vendictive combative white male :(. Hopefully Lisa Helps will continue to help more women into counsel roles throughout the region.
Inspection at my place today…then 48 hours to pending after taking conditions off the new place yesterday, less than a month away from moving, might need to take December off to destress.
I’m serious about the electrification of transport though. A lot of places downtown will become more desirable/comfortable without the noise and pollution of internal combustion engines. In a place like Victoria we’ll already see a large percentage of the traffic be electric within 10 years.
I lived near there and agree. Too many dogs at clover point. Killed it IMO. I also had a friend that lived on Dallas and they also complained about the wind.
Not a hellhole but that’s not what he said. I agree that Dallas Road is not a place I would choose to live for many of the reasons mentioned.
Waterfront with a road in between is not waterfront in my book.
People with similar outward appearance can have widely different backgrounds and represent different interests. For example, Leonard Krog versus Keven Murdoch. Or dare I say John Horgan versus Andrew Wilkinson. I’m a middle aged white guy myself, but I certainly don’t vote for someone just because he fits that profile.
Sure it would be nice to have more visible diversity among mayors, but remember what really matters is what they stand for and in any case they only have one vote on council.
In the T-C today there are pictures of each of six new regional mayors side-by-side, and it is striking that they are all white men with greyish hair. I don’t know much about all their backgrounds, so maybe there is more diversity than surface appearances might indicate. I also acknowledge that someone doesn’t have to have the same background as a group of people to be able to represent them. I just hope that if the mayor is not doing that, there are councillors who can represent the different viewpoints within each region.
https://www.timescolonist.com/islander/meet-the-new-mayors-in-greater-victoria-nanaimo-1.23478672
What does it mean when a post describing Dallas Road as some kind of hellhole gets 6 (and counting) upvotes.
Amen. No-one with brains should borrow money for a damn car. I don’t care who you are. There are plenty of stupid people to buy decent second-hand cars from for cash.
Anyone who borrows money for a truck for non-work purposes deserves the financial future that is coming for them.
[end rant]
®
Marko: Lets not forget the noise from the helicopters.
lots of diesel smoke all summer from tour buses and motor homes,
yea….it’s like Delhi but worse.
I think your REALTOR license is starting to infect your brain….
At least electric busses and cars will solve that problem in the next 10 years or so.
Was thinking about Sidney actually. Once a lot of the short haul flights are electric that might be quite a pleasant place too.
I believe you have missed and misinterpreted the points made in the article. The issues you take to task were pointed out as flawed because they rely on poor quality surveys, so that is why the idea of a ‘comprehensive unemployment rate’ is proposed (which captures total labour force participation). While you point out the obvious imperfections in the measure, I believe it is the change over time that matters, which was pointed out in the article (comparing the ‘exact’ unemployment rates of 3.9% in both 2000 and 2018, yet the growth in both total labour hours vs employed hours changed drastically).
As pointed out, given the astounding number of people that gave up looking for work in the aftermath of the GFC and the way employment has been counted in the new, so-called ‘gig economy’, the way unemployment is currently measured/reported is just plain nonsense.
Yes fair point for sure. Actually if you take a look at the unemployment numbers in 2016 you can see the effect of the building boom. When building slows down those jobs will be lost again.
Question is, what level of unemployment is required to really exacerbate a decline? Last two times it was around 7% with only minor impact, so perhaps 10%?
Ford is agressively going after owners of new Ford F150’s. They are 1 for 2 with the people I know in Victoria. My 10 year old truck, was just significantly surpassed in safety and technology this year, but I would rather double down in this real estate market than have a car payment. I’ll trade up in 2-3 years if a pull back happens, maybe buy off eBay again if the dollar adjust. The automatic crash avoidance discounts will be in place with ICBC then too.
I’m sorry but car manufactures/dealers/lenders they should be regulated more than banks and real estate agents. I know there are good people in the industry but from the VW diesel deception to fighting emissions standards to local lending. Any see John Olivers take on the used car lending business last year?
From that article
What a load of BS. If I was still living in the US, my household would be 75% unemployed by this warped logic. Unemployment numbers should include those who want a job, are looking for a job, are underemployed. Not those who have chosen a different path like retirement (me – semi-retired) or those who are fully engaged earning a degree (my child). Unemployment rates also shouldn’t count the stay-at-home parent. Raising a child is a job but this article while briefly mentioning it certainly doesn’t take that into consideration. The only thing that seems to count is how many hours there are available to work among a demographic. There’s also a mixing and matching of numbers between non-farm payroll hours and then total number of adults in the population. Where did the farm worker go in this mix?
And there’s the outright lies in there. Hasn’t been called food stamps in years – it’s called SNAP. 44% of all SNAP participants are age 18 or younger. 11.9% to households with disabled persons and 10% to households with senior citizens. SNAP participants get a whopping $4.20 a day. You’re not going to fill a belly & roof over the head on that.
https://www.snaptohealth.org/snap/snap-frequently-asked-questions/
So I think I’ll stick to a measure that makes sense. People who want to work at a job with countable hours.
1212 Dallas for sale again, third owner in less than 3 years. It’s never quiet on Dallas Road.
Dallas Road near Clover Point has appeal to some house hunters, but I’ve often wondered why. It’s got ocean views on the plus side, but that’s it. On the downside it’s a very busy road day and night, noisy, lots of diesel smoke all summer from tour buses and motor homes, windy all winter, impossible to heat houses, thousands of dogs running amuck across the street, late night drag races, a popular cruise for loud Harleys day and night, homeless car-campers sleeping across the street most nights, lack of privacy, constant smell of marijuana most evenings, sea salt spray rusting your vehicles, and of course the seagulls living on your roof especially during nesting season.
The bus stop in front of 1212 should be a great selling feature… more diesel exhaust…
Leo S
There has been enough news coverage on that the past few years you’d have to be under a rock to think otherwise. I just thought we mainly put our debt on housing and HELOCs (presumably rolling luxury items into the HELOC). Canadians are obsessed with housing and the run-up in home prices combined with low interest rates has made people feel rich. 100s of thousands at your disposal all for a low low interest fee (if they are even paying the interest, not just rolling it into the HELOC until it is maxed).
I was specifically intrigued by the car loan scenario. I’ve seen plenty about people rolling debt from one car in US shows and have even heard a few anecdotes from US friends, but have never heard of anyone doing it in Canada. For all I knew you aren’t allowed to do that in Canada (just like we can’t pay one credit card with another). I know plenty of people that have made horrible financial decisions but have no anecdotes of Canadian friends rolling one car loan into the next. I’ve never been in the situation where that option would have been offered to me.
Does anyone here know of someone that has rolled one car loan into the next? Which dealers push that kind of financing? The rates have to be horrible.
Some people seem to have no self restraint. Yeah I’d love a newer car, but there’s little sense in the capital expenditure to upgrade a vehicle that is paid for and in good working order. Replacing a vehicle you haven’t paid off yet seems absurd. Just lease if you’re that itchy to switch vehicles.
One of my favorite sayings I overheard from an exasperated parent to a child who was complaining over the backpack that was just purchased for them, “SOME PEOPLE GET WHAT THEY CAN AFFORD!”
It’s a shame not all people just get what they can afford. I don’t think we would have seen half the run-up in prices if people didn’t extend themselves as far as they have recently. It’s kind of like doping in sports. Athletes feel pressured to dope to to be competitive just like buyers feel like they have to stretch themselves to compete against other buyers who are spending a lot more than they should.
Now that is the truth Josh!
It sure looks like what supports record low unemployment is overheating real estate.
Or Victoria if you prefer.
You telling me this isn’t a strong employment picture?
Depends on how you want to measure it:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/economic-old-age-part-5-40-unemployment-aint-awesome/
Alright – this needs some substantiation. Link or article? I’ve seen these numbers before for US and it almost always includes retirees, students, and the disabled in the numbers. Seriously – most of those don’t want or care about jobs. Now the underemployed is probably higher than what is reported but still nowhere near this 30-40%. The reported unemployment rate in the US is about 4% but the real rate (based on U6) and includes underemployed is more like
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-re7.5%al-us-unemployment-rate-reached-a-17-year-low-2018-06-01
Never mind. Deleted
Re: “Very strong employment picture.”
Oh, c’mon, Leo. You know darn well that the unemployment print doesn’t include all the people who are giving up in frustration. The real unemployment rate in America right now is probably between 30-40%. 96 million Americans are on some kind of welfare — roughly 1/3 of the population. The lamestream narrative (“All is well, growth is everywhere, happy-happy joy-joy”) is ONLY that: a narrative — a pathologically dishonest one.
Rates are reverting to the historical mean, and would-be buyers are in a panic because they’ve grown up in a world where people are acculturated to treat debt as something you simply “live with.” Deprogramming is going to take a crisis, and thanks to the bankers, we’re on the verge. It’s a real chump who buys a house now without seeing what lies ahead. (On the other hand, to anyone who sold over the last few weeks, CONGRATULATIONS: you nailed the Top.
Great information and scary graphs for Halloween! On the over ask I think it is because some houses are being reasonably priced. My friend went to see a place in James bay within 48 hours to find out there were three offers on the table. @Leo S for the luxury ones hundreds of thousands under ask did the offers come after multiple price adjustments? Good to see some movement in that area, hopefully some people moving up the buying ladder making room!
On my street the developers realtor is sniffing around wondering why mine has an accepted offer.
On the employment from residential construction, employment can taper pretty quick but the commercial/institutional/multi family residential construction pipeline is pretty full. The employment on the residential side needs a shake out and the weak contractors/employees will head into other fields that have massive vacancies like food/hospitality, others will leave town and others will live the EI/under the table/go back to school game. “Some” in vancouver think there are massive foreign workers in construction who will leave the country resulting a Phoenix/Spain type collapse, but I doubt it.
I don’t think we’ll see a massive shift but it should fix the rental problem over time.
Thanks for the input on Garden suites. Saanich looks prime for large garden suites, based on the published survey results but the proof will be in the final regulations in the spring.
Yep…
Note the unemployment rate in the US continued to fall after the peak in RE prices in 1Q 2006. Unemployment didn’t start rising until 3Q 2007 when RE prices had been falling for over a year.
Conclusion is that employment wasn’t supporting house prices, rather house prices were supporting employment. If you decide to start construction now you’ll be going for a year or so that explains the time lag.
And what was supporting house prices then? Borrowing.
Appears to me that a “garden suite” in Victoria is more or less the same as a “laneway house” in Vancouver. In that city “garden suite” is usually a euphemism for basement suite.
Building one will make the property proportionally subject to capital gains tax, but that’s going forward from the time it’s built, not when the property was bought.
How do employment numbers have an impact on house prices if incomes are detached from prices? I get that it reflects economic growth, but if wages don’t support monthly mortgage prices, how does having a job make a difference?
What if it’s mostly there but not quite 100%? This is what we lucked into the first time, there was a kitchen a bathroom, but still some layout problems. Fixed it all for under 10K. Now it seems that we are likely to find something with a bathroom but would have to put in our own kitchen. This must increase the cost a lot.
A neighbor is building a garden suite and it’s stick-built. Not sure if they are using a GC or not but certainly doesn’t seem like “a man & a hammer” type build. I’m waiting to see if it’s rented out and curious as to how much. Seems like the payback may not be there.
As far as unicorn general contractors go I think of the old saying:
Good,fast or cheap. Pick two ….
I think if you can’t build the garden suite yourself, don’t. It will cost you way too much to pay it back. The smaller the footprint the more the per sqft cost. By my estimation materials are 1/3 the price of building right now if you go with a GC.
I would write the HPO exam till you pass, hire the trades to get plumbing and electrical connected, pour an insulated slab and buy one of these to put on it: https://www.modern-shed.com/
All in you are probably under $100k. Get a GC to build one for you from scratch and and it will cost you closer to $300k….