Weekly stats update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras.
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings||78%||79%||
|Months of Inventory||
Months of inventory trending upward but that is fairly normal this time of year.
Matching last year just about perfectly in terms of sales with 40% less inventory on the market. It is going to be a miserable time for buyers at least until the spring. There are many people waiting on the sidelines wanting to upgrade or downgrade but with nothing to buy there isn’t any point and putting the property on the market.
On to another topic. In Vancouver we have seen that the average and median prices took a tumble while the HPI continued to increase in the summer. Only in the past 3 months has the HPI turned around, and Vancouver agent Steve Saretsky contends that there is about a 3 to 4 month lag in the HPI compared to average and median prices. Is that true in general? Let’s take a look at the last few turning points in the Victoria market.
Overall I don’t see convincing evidence for systemic lag in the HPI compared to median prices. Often it turns at the same time as the medians, and sometimes it’s a month or two behind or ahead. The phenomena we see in Vancouver is likely more due to extreme changes in the sales mix. When the foreign buyers tax was introduced it decimated the high end sales and caused a plunge in the average sale prices without affecting the benchmark very much. Now a few months later those effects are trickling down to lower priced houses and the benchmark is trending downwards as well. We’ll see how long the downwards trend can last.