November: Single family sales regain pre-stress test levels
It was a strong month for real estate sales in November, with 577 sales coming in, which puts it significantly above average for November sales. A slow November would have just under 400 sales, while just under 500 is average and the record is 695 in November 1991. Note that November 2017 was also a strong month, with 671 sales, however that one had a clear explanation as demand was pulled forward from the impending stress test. Without regulatory changes on the horizon, it seems that at least single family buyers have returned from hiding and come back to the market in numbers we haven’t seen in 2 years. Although this is supposed to be a slow time in the real estate market, there has definitely been a continued building of demand since late summer which has oscillated between the condo and single family markets, but seems more prevalent on the detached side.
Inventory is still up overall but not by much, and you can see that the percentage increase has been steadily decreasing for quite a while now. In fact for the first time last month, the number of available detached properties actually dropped significantly from the previous year with single family inventory down 6% from last November. There were 24% more condo listings on the market, but condos have been following the single family trend, so we may see a similar drop in condo inventory going forward.
When prices flatlined 2 years ago I expressed surprise because prices shouldn’t have stopped appreciating so quickly with the market still objectively firmly in sellers market territory. Nevertheless prices at least in the detached market stopped increasing and even gave up some of their gains. However that has certainly ended now, with months of inventory stalled out just below what would traditionally be considered a balanced market overall.
Just a few weeks ago I said that I still believe this strengthening period is temporary on a larger cooling cycle in real estate. Have I changed my mind given November’s strong results? No. But you should be clear that when I talk about larger cycles, I am talking about things that last over a decade. If we zoom out a bit you can get a sense of that for the last cycle which stretched 13 years from 2004 to 2017. See the green line below which is the months of inventory.
In that cycle, months of inventory bottomed out (hottest market) mid 2004, and then started on the upward (cooling) trend. However even with a 12 month average that flattens all seasonality, the path is not linear, and the market experienced several retrenchments where it temporarily got more active as it cooled down from 2004 to 2008. The great financial crisis caused the market to swing wildly but it didn’t interrupt the gradual cooling trend, which continued until 2013. That was followed by 4 years of steady market heating to complete the cycle.
I realize that for a normal person with a buying window of 6 months to 2 years that doesn’t help you very much! Will there be more price increases before the market finally tops or will we get back to a solidly slowing market soon? I’ll be discussing the argument for both in a followup post later this month, along with a closer look at what’s really selling out there and what’s languishing.
New post: Evaluating the CMHC market outlook https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/12/05/evaluating-the-cmhc-2020-victoria-outlook/
I thought for sure the government was not going to pursue their idea of expanding the first time home buyers plan, but the throne speech mentioned making it easier for first timers to buy so maybe they’re still in.
Grant,
Great post!
And I heartily agree. Victoria is my favorite city, including the 6 cities I’ve lived in, and many more that I’ve visited. I’m still amazed by the number of people I meet in travels, who light up when they hear I’m from Victoria, and tell me that it’s their favourite city. And they are often from beautiful places like San Diego, Honolulu etc.
In my opinion Victoria isn’t that great at anything in paricular but the package is top notch.
freedom – yes indeed, there should be arts to suit everybody’s interests. I have always found that looking into a city’s investment in contemporary art a good gauge. If a city has a vibrant contemporary art scene, it probably also has art that would appeal to those whose taste run in another vein. The AGNS for instance usually dedicates about 3 quarters of it’s space to more traditional work. That could mean the group of seven, Mary Pratt, Paul Emile Borduas etc.
However, for those of us who are interested in other forms of expression, the AGNS always dedicates it’s lower level to contemporary art.
In Halifax, as I suspect in Calgary, there is enough space (geographical and intellectual) afforded to visual arts to appeal to most segments of the population. Here in Victoria, were it not for the Ministry of Casual Living, Open Space and a few other isolated co-ops, there would be no space for people such as myself.
Please note that arts can be of different styles and forms, contemporary art is only small part of it. Also taste in the arts is personal and subjective, not everyone is keen on contemporary art.
We are very much into arts (I do drawings myself) and have relatives graduated from NSCAD. But for us, we will take Emily Carr’s work at AGGV over Maud Lewis’s at AGNS anyday. There are lots of great artists based in greater Victoria area, and you can check them out at public events such as Moss street paint-in, Sidney art show, …
Grant, Victoria does indeed have a lot to offer but I think you may be a touch off the mark when you say that it is competitive with other medium sized Canadian cities when it comes to the arts. Compared to Halifax for instance, Victoria’s contemporary arts scene is not that strong. The Art Gallery of Greater Victoria really can’t compete with the AGNS. There are a few interesting artist-run-centres here, notably Open Space, but there is far more grass roots programming in Halifax. This is probably in part due to the presence of NSCAD so Halifax may be an outlier. However, though I have never been to Calgary, I have heard a great deal about their contemporary arts scene. Having a look at the Contemporary Calgary site, it seems pretty great. And of course they have some great artist-run-centres. Most of all, Calgary has ACAD (Alberta University of the Arts) with which UVIC’s art dept. really can’t compete – at least in terms of size.
Again I really love being here in Victoria but let us not fool ourselves: arts is not this city’s strong suit. I suspect that is the case even compared to Calgary… I have also not found a whole lot yet in terms of modern dance or music (except for Open Space that clearly has a mandate to promote sound art).
Yes, but it’s not a fully open supply and demand market. The rental market is under rent control, and currently new rentals go for a premium, indicating that rents for existing properties would be higher without rent control. That’s a cushion preventing falling rents. A high vacancy rate isn’t going to make landlords lower rent for existing tenants. So that’s about 80% of rentals that won’t be lowering rent. That leaves the other 20% that are new tenant rentals – those would go for less of a premium or maybe a negative premium. But I don’t see it all adding up to to a net drop in rent – especially since Victoria has never seen a significant drop in rent in modern times ( or has the USA in the last 80 years).
Grant, Victoria also does better than Sudbury but lets be realistic. This is probably a good point to stop,
I couldn’t feel more differently; Victoria is anything but boring! To be boring, it would need to have no active entertainment scene, a dearth of restaurants, little to nothing to do outdoors, be lacking in arts and have a general lack of charm/appeal. I’ve lived in Calgary for over 35 years (population now at 1.3 M) and in San Francisco Bay Area for 9 years (population ~ 8 million). If we’re talking bang for the buck based on population, Victoria is right up there with the SF Bay Area and puts Calgary to shame.
Victoria does better than Calgary in terms of restaurants and about an equal job in terms of the arts, even though the CRD only has at best 1/4 the population. For entertainment Calgary has a CFL and NHL team, but quite honestly the Victoria Royals are just as entertaining to watch and WAY cheaper. There may be a few more concerts in Calgary with more popular performers, but to really check off that criteria you need to be in Vancouver or Toronto. There’s very little to do outdoors in Calgary, perhaps fishing the bow or cycling/running on the river pathways or Nose Hill, so you’ll need to drive at least an hour to get to the very edges of the mountains. And you better have an interest in cross country or downhill skiing in what can be exceptionally cold conditions to really take advantage of the mountains for 6+ months of the year. Calgary proper has very little charm/appeal. It’s suburban sprawl personified, and smack dab in the prairies with very few trees save for the areas along the rivers.
In comparison to the SF Bay Area, undoubtedly one of the most popular metros in the US, Victoria has per capita a similar amount of restaurants. You will however find more niche restaurants and entertainment options in SF as compared to Victoria. Outdoor activities in SF Bay Area are quite good but the Island certainly holds its own here – the one exception would be surfing. Overall there is a greater amount of everything in major US metros, but you really pay for it in terms of crime, pollution, traffic etc. SF in particular now has huge issues with defecation on streets – the homelessness and drug problems there are really bad. Victoria and the CRD are just big enough, without attracting all the downsides. (Although the homeless/drug problem in Victoria is bad for a city of its size)
No moving of goalposts Patrick. The only claim I made is that rents stop appreciating at 4% or so. Higher than that no one knows exactly what will happen but it’s simple supply and demand. At some point higher than that they start dropping.
Wages and inflation don’t change by the same amounts and over 20 year periods are usually quite different (lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth if wages only match inflation). Vacancy rate is the primary determinant of rent changes. Of course those factors are correlated and connected (inflation includes rents) but just because wages increase doesn’t mean rents will.
Vancouver (east) & Burnaby – ‘hipster’ juice bars vs ‘racially appropriate’ hole-in-the-wall bubble tea shops; and other predictable problems with growth and redevelopment:
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/12/05/Upzoning-Wrecking-Neighbourhoods/
For a 5% vacancy rate, if you want to move the goalposts from “rents will fall” to “rents will decrease in real terms” (ie rise, but less than inflation), I agree with that.
Over the long term though, rents should at least track wages, and the year-to-year fluctuations in rent gains are noise caused by temporary factors. If 20 years from now, wages and inflation are up 50%, expect rents to be up about 50%, regardless of the vacancy rate.
Related: if you want to be interesting, be interested
Ahh yes, everyone’s still paying the same mortgage payments since 1950.
It’s all relative. Live in cities with millions of people your whole life and Victoria and it doesn’t seem so exciting. I love it, but I don’t wake up in the morning thinking about how exciting my life is because of the presence of a nearby airport.
Many things in the US are different than here, including house prices and rental vacancy rates.
We don’t have any data on rents in Victoria falling, except that at about 4% vacancy they seem to stop increasing. Will 5% cause declines or will it take 6% or 7%? Unknown. If your rent is flat then it is decreasing in real terms so that is likely good enough.
Yes, RE is an inflation hedge. Payments are increasing for successive buyers over time but not of course if you’re already in. That said most people do not stay in their first purchased home forever, so almost everyone will be exposed to inflation in housing regardless.
Average rent increase has actually not been that strong over the decades. As I recall it’s something like an average of 2.5%/year.
Yes, increasing rents, but not mortgage payments (unless rates rise at renewal)
Almost as if there’s some kind of inflation going on…
I wouldn’t expect any fall in rents, especially from something insignificant like 5% rental vacancy. US rental vacancy rate has been much higher (7-10%) in a narrow range for at least 30 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRVAC
And US average rents have increased steadily since 1940,no sign of cyclicality or effect from the 2008 crash. Rent https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=categories . Just relentless increases in rents (as is also shown in your chart for Victoria rent)
Yeah they don’t drop at 3-4% but they basically flatline
Probably needs about 5% to drop rents
I suspect RE will be marching on the present positive conditions till rents get to 3-4% vacancy rate and perhaps pause for a brief period, but I don’t expect price to drop significantly unless a catastrophe such as a devastating earth quake or early 80s market conditions .
However, rental price are not going to drop even when we hit 4% vacancy rate.
Rental Vacancy Rates: Canada, Provinces and Metropolitan Areas:
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/data-tables/rental-vacancy-rates-canada-provinces-metropolitan-areas
There seems to be a strong co-relation between people who are bored and people who are boring.
The people moving into those places vacate other places though. It’s all connected.
Rents stop appreciating at 3-4% vacancy rate. That’s a huge improvement. We never had a big problem renting in those environments
I think as you age extrinsic factors become less determinate of your level of boredom
Maybe in new, higher rent, rental construction. The new stuff is mostly downtown and not suitable for families or those who are looking for something less expensive in the core and I doubt the filtering effect will be… effective.. given the competition for specific areas. A 3-4% vacancy rate vs. the current 1% vacancy rate would mean it is still extremely tough to find a place if you don’t have a big budget and want to stay in town.
A job can be boring, your life can be boring, but how can a city of 368,000 people with a university, college, libraries, art galleries, excellent restaurants, recreation facilities, an airport, parks and hiking nearby, some historic buildings and areas, and a whole slew of community activities be boring?
Victoria has some down months weather-wise in the winter, but where in Canada doesn’t?
3-4% vacancy rate is a reasonable prediction, perhaps at the higher range (CMHC is projecting 1.8% Victoria vacancy in 2021 https://www.google.ca/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/local/vancouver-island/2019/10/24/1_4653786.html )
If we think ahead to a 3-4% vacancy rate, would there be any reason to continue to inflict the foreigner-targeted spec tax on Victoria, if we don’t apply it everywhere else in the province with a similar or lower vacancy rate? Why would we want people to vacate homes if/when we have a 3-4% vacancy rate?
CMHC also adds some price/market predictions for Victoria “ Properties over $1 million will likely decline in value, while units in lower price ranges move higher. Apartment units continue to have a higher sales-to-listings ratio, indicating more upward pressure on prices.“
hahahahhaaha.
You’re talking about the seasonally adjusted sales chart?
hahahahaha!
Chartapalooza. 80 charts on the state of the economy collected from Canadian economists and analysts
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/the-most-important-canadian-economic-charts-to-watch-in-2020/
I think it will. We always returned to a 3 to 4% vacancy rate in past rental cycles and that was with almost no rental construction. Now we have a very high rate of rental construction that shows no sign of letting up so we will almost certainly get to those vacancy rates in the next two or three years
Well I filtered out most students by using only 25 to 34 years of age, and the military heavily subsidizes housing by paying for all transaction costs and I believe even covering losses if they occur on sale. Not sure how the ownership rate for active military compares to general population though
Yeah but with an overall ownership rate second lowest in the country how high could the ownership rate of houses possibly be? And with houses going for about the price of a Victoria condo why isn’t the ownership rate much higher?
If you look at Leo S graph we are reaching 2015 spring sales volume for November (typically November is a low season), and price did appreciated in 2015. Yes, construction is high but it is not going to increase the 0.7% rental vacancy rate to a stable 3-4% with a population growth of 4000 per year. Most of the population growth are from millennial to boomer age groups and theses people are the ones that will be buying somewhat immediately. Low interest rates is one of the major reason that we have the huge run up in RE price for the last decade, therefore it will be one of a key factor in keeping a positive pressure on price.
I’m not sure how many positive indicators that you need, but if I’m in the market I would certainly be looking and get a pre loan approval for this coming spring.
This talk about Halifax made me curious and now I’m low key in love with a few properties in Halifax.
I meant houses, not an overall rate which lumps all owned dwelling types together. In a city with reasonably priced houses there isn’t much incentive to buy condos or to build them.
Perhaps there are high % of Millennials in Halifax who belong to the transient population (students, military, …) than in other cities?
From my previous post on the matter
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/06/12/victoria-millennials-y-u-no-own/
Maybe Halifax isn’t a “condo” town. We know that a large proportion of the millennial owners in Victoria and Vancouver own condos. What I would like to see, and what really matters IMHO, is the millennial ownership rate for houses in Halifax compared to Vic and Van.
think Winnipeg and many prairie cities are more like transient homes – Many came for the job and does not want to stay rooted
low % of millennial in town ?
would be interest to see % age group that rent vs owns
gwac: Not yet, this summer I am guessing.
Barrister when?
You listed or sold your place yet?
Sure, and their are lots of examples of Wikipedia manipulation too. Those are temporary events, and that is shown by the current numbeo low-crime data for Lund. https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/Lund
But that doesn’t mean Victoria crowd-sourced data is being manipulated. For example, here it is, and you can let me know if something looks wrong to you https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/in/Victoria
The problem with Numbeo is when people use its ratings as actual stats and facts like many online sites do because it is popular. City ratings in small towns like Victoria can easily be manipulated because there are so few reviews to begin with. If a real estate or tourism board wanted to pump up its cities ratings on Numbeo it wouldn’t be very difficult. Not much different from Amazon reviews which are loaded with fake reviews to push product. Anyone from anywhere in the world can change the data on Numbeo anonymously
One man has single-handedly fought back at fake news by cleverly exposing the danger in believing online figures without knowing their source. Linus Trulsson manipulated crowdsourced database Numbeo in order to rank the sleepy Swedish city of Lund as the most dangerous place in the world, despite its crime rate being below the national average. He managed to put Lund number one on Numbeo’s Crime Index Rate, one above Caracas in Venezuela. Numbeo uses users reviews to rank cities based on their safety, rather than official statistics. Trulsson decided to take action after seeing stories spreading about crime rates in the Swedish city Malmo, based on figures from the site. ” It is easy to shape public opinion towards a particular case, above all if you have similar-minded people behind you.” So Trulsson gave Lund multiple bad reviews, and in less than a day he managed to make it the world’s most dangerous city
https://www.indy100.com/article/swedesh-town-lund-most-dangerous-numbeo-statistics-7533326
gwac: Moving to a small town of 50k people, Lugano.
CMHC data for Winnipeg has it cheaper to buy a condo than rent . That seems like an anomaly in Canada, but is seen in many USA cities.
Agreed, there is no “right” answer as to the best city. The “Quality of Life” data presented by numbeo isn’t just a popularity contest though, they measure Eight variables, and one of them is rent. They also show the various scores, so you can factor in/out the variables that are important to you.
While people value things differently, lots of people like safe, clean air, traffic-friendly, affordable cities with a great climate (ie Victoria). And lots of big cities don’t meet that test. So something that measures them has value IMO.
The methodology is here https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/indices_explained.jsp
Quality Of Life = index.main = Math.max(0, 100 + purchasingPowerInclRentIndex / 2.5 – (housePriceToIncomeRatio * 1.0) – costOfLivingIndex / 10 + safetyIndex / 2.0 + healthIndex / 2.5 – trafficTimeIndex / 2.0 – pollutionIndex * 2.0 / 3.0 + climateIndex / 3.0);
https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/region_rankings_current.jsp?region=019
Barrister where r u moving to?
Chek News last night reporting that Nov.2018 to Nov.2019 SFH in Victoria rose over $80K, while condos fell over $50K. That puts the SFH benchmark price at over $900K.
I think Barrister is right on the button. But, if you were born and raised here, and call this home, it is tough [speaking for myself] to leave “home”. It may be inviting for others, it may be beautiful for others, it may be a nice place to visit or charming – but I just call it “home”. There really is no objective measure – it is entirely subjective regardless of how anyone “ranks” a City. No one has invented a “City-O-Meter” to objectively rank a City. It is in the eye of the beholder.
The best measure of affordability continues to be, in my opinion, price to income. Leo’s last article touched on this very issue and I think did the analysis justice. For a buyer / household earning median income and who pays 7.5 times that income for a home, it comes down to what this family is willing to forgo to be able to live in a SFH in Victoria. Perhaps they take in a renter or get a second job – there is a trade-off. There is no free lunch.
Sales are normalizing from low levels last year, construction has dropped from a high of 6,235 earlier this year to 5,494 units under construction, and low interest rates have been here for a decade.
For reference, our last construction peak in July 2008 was 3,557 units under construction. We currently have more SFH under construction than in July 2008, and nearly double the number of apartment/condos.
Rating cities in their niceness is subjective for sure. That why I like rent as an indicator of relative demand amongst cities that is not subject to distortions from speculation like the housing market is.
Rating cities to some degree is a rather subjective process at best. To some degree it depends on what you value and what you enjoy. Recently I remember one person saying that it is wonderful how many new coffee shops we have gotten in the last few years. Whereas I dont have the slightest interest in ever sitting in a coffee shop. It is a matter of different strokes for different folks.
We are moving to a smaller town, not a matter of finance, but rather just preference. Victoria is a nice city but truthfully less nice than it was seven years ago when I first arrived for my tastes. Each to his own.
I was surprised to see that actually because I would have expected Victoria to be more expensive. Although in retrospect I should have compares rents to individual income as it’s likely more reflective of who’s renting. Not sure if that would change the rankings
Halifax is also a big mystery. Very cheap housing prices to income. Expensive rent to income, and very low millennial ownership rate.
How does that work??
Yeah, don’t know enough about numbeo to assess its trustworthiness.
Nice to see Raleigh North Carolina, Madison Wisconsin, and Columbus Ohio all ranking ahead of Victoria though.
Anyway, I’m not knocking people who love it here. Victoria is nice and although I consider it to be kind of a dull city, I continue to call it home.
My only point was that there are other nice places not far from here that are a lot more affordable, and if you can work in one of those places or are fortunate enough to be able to telework, why not consider it? There’s something to be said for not being house poor.
Maybe it’s you that’s under-rating Victoria. At least on an objective basis, since the data rates Victoria very high.
If you rate major North American cities on a quality of life index, (factors like pollution, crime, traffic, purchasing power, cost of living, housing cost, health care and climate), you’ll see Victoria come out near the top, ranking #6 in North America. Much higher than close by cities (Vancouver (20), Seattle (11), Portland (13)) and major cities like Toronto (41), NYC(42) and Honolulu (34)
https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/region_rankings_current.jsp?region=019
btw, Duncan, Nanaimo etc. are nice too, don’t get me wrong. I’m just responding to your “Victoria is over rated” comment, in the context of comparing it to the major cities in North America. That’s a big reason that I believe people will continue to come here, to visit and live.
Right, your article was balanced, with data from both sides presented. I was referring to other discussions which seem more one-sided and definitive about the BC housing “crisis,” including comments from the government.
For example, I didn’t hear the govt saying that Victoria rents are pretty close (within 1% of income) to other cities like Winnipeg, when they slapped “Victorians” (mainly non-voting foreigners) with the spec tax. Your article did make that point about similar rents, via the charts displayed.
The CMHC data should be interesting, I’m expecting a small bump up in vacancy. We don’t want to see too big a rise or new construction will fall.
I’m not seeing what this “long cooling” of Months of Inventory (MOI) you’ve spotted (2004-13) is supposed to indicate. House prices rose 50% during the cooling, and rose 45% more during the “heating” (2013-17) So neither one of them was co-related with a significant fall in prices (in relation to the price gains) and that was an entire market MOI cycle (2004-17) .
To me, if anything it indicates how little the data supports the theory that prices are supposed to be correlated with MOI measurements. Lots of factors affect prices, and I don’t see MOI as particularly relevant, except at extremes.
Sales are picking up, slow down in housing construction, and low interest rates. To me it is an early indication of price appreciation if there isn’t a drop in employment.
Thanks, Leo. Nice research explained.
Dad – I agree 100%. Victoria is becoming less “nature” and more concrete every year. Nanaimo is becoming a “medium’ish” City and has more access to “nature” with less traffic and closer proximity to Vancouver. The Cowichan Valley and Comox Valley are beautiful, spread out and far more affordable. If your work / career permits a lateral move, it makes economic sense. Take Nanaimo as an example: a comparable home is 30% to 35% less expensive. Nanaimo has also had a big run-up in prices but trails Victoria by a long shot – price to income ratio is likely in the 4.5 to 5 range [compared to 7.5 in Victoria]. We have friends that did just that and are home-owners with small mortgages – no need for a tenant.
Leo – in looking at the sales breakdown, it seems to me that (a) condos are the leader and (b) prices for all types are in the $650,000 to $1.2M range. So, it seems to me that average to median sales are relatively hovering around $800,000 to $1M. This means that the so-called luxury end continues to falter. Perhaps Marko would be kind enough to lend his thoughts too from a feet on the grounds perspective.
Sorry for the double post there.
“Perhaps, it would make more sense to seek “Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness ” elsewhere, because you are living a in free country. Therefore, you are free to leave and to find your happiness in other cities like Regina, Winterpeg, Fredericton, St John’s NL, etc… where housing is cheaper.”
It’s life, liberty and security of the person in Canada. Anyway, all you need to do is drive north of Victoria for about 45 minutes to find affordable houses. Find work there, or get a job in Vic where you aren’t chained to a desk for 8 hours a day and you can work from home. No need to move to Regina or Winnipeg (not that I see anything wrong with either of those places.)
Victorians tend to overrate Victoria. The thing that makes it nice imo is proximity to nature and a decent climate for most of the year. The city itself is quite boring (dead boring in the winter when you can’t get outside much) and once you come to that realization, Duncan, Chemainus, Nanaimo, etc., don’t seem half bad. Same great access to the outdoors, similar climate (in the Cowichan Valley you’ll get an actual summer), all the usual amenities for daily living, and the best part, fewer people!
I tend to agree that if you can’t afford Victoria or find it too expensive for your debt tolerance, move it along. But really, how far do you need to go to find affordable housing?
“Perhaps, it would make more sense to seek “Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness ” elsewhere, because you are living a in free country. Therefore, you are free to leave and to find your happiness in other cities like Regina, Winterpeg, Fredericton, St John’s NL, etc… where housing is cheaper.”
It’s life, liberty and security of the person in Canada. Anyway, all you need to do is drive north of Victoria for about 45 minutes to find affordable houses. Find work there, or get a job in Vic where you aren’t chained to a desk for 8 hours a day and you can work from home. No need to move to Regina or Winnipeg (not that I see anything wrong with either of those places.)
Victorians tend to overrate Victoria. The thing that makes it nice imo is proximity to nature and a decent climate for most of the year. The city itself is quite boring (dead boring in the winter when you can’t get outside much) and once you come to that realization, Duncan, Chemainus, Nanaimo, etc., don’t seem half bad. Same great access to the outdoors, similar climate (in the Cowichan Valley you’ll get an actual summer), all the usual amenities for daily living, and the best part, fewer people!
I tend to agree that if you can’t afford Victoria or find it too expensive for your debt tolerance, move it along. But really, how far do you need to go to find affordable housing?
yup – currently looking else where
Perhaps, it would make more sense to seek “Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness ” elsewhere, because you are living a in free country. Therefore, you are free to leave and to find your happiness in other cities like Regina, Winterpeg, Fredericton, St John’s NL, etc… where housing is cheaper.
BC Assessments will be mailed out in a month. Leo, what do you anticipate they’ll look like for Greater Victoria?
SFU Centre for Dialogue: Conversations That Matter, with Stuart McNish
The tax upon tax upon tax that was implemented to make housing in BC, and in Vancouver in particular, affordable is having the opposite effect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYZZ3-WFMHo
IMO there isn’t a crisis as the media put it, because rental costs aren’t that expensive when compare income vs. owning a home or living costs on the world stage. However, there is a local sentiment that they are being gouge by the landlords just as we are being gouge by fuel companies, but they ignore the fact that government red tape, taxes, and pet projects contribute to the costs of living.
On a relate note. Five of my co workers who are in their mid 20s to mid 30s , and one in his early 40s in the last 18 months have moved to Victoria from across Canada with their families. Five out of the six rents, with one purchased a SFH, and two are looking to buy in the next 12 months. So, to me affordability isn’t that bad because people are moving here and loving it.
Average cost of 1br rent per month, price to buy 1sq meter, and monthly salary. And, just for fun I added a few Socialist/Communist cities to the list below:
Victoria $1,509, $6,006, $3,369.
Yellowknife $1,599, $3,845, $4,044
Honolulu $2,342, $10,025, $4,485
Hong Kong $2,940, $39,961, $3,399
Phnom Penh $611, $2,881, $328
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Canada&country2=Canada&city1=Victoria&city2=Yellowknife
reasons i moved here 6 years ago because the place was relatively affordable .. but now is a different story. The place is affordable to survive; but why survive to work; why pay for premium mediocrity? Cant set roots in a city if you are just working for survival.
I did talk about renting affordability in Victoria. Just like owning we are third least affordable, but the spread isn’t nearly as large. Several other cities have similar rent/income ratios. New rental data will be out any day now so I’ll write another deeper dive into that topic then.