May 13 Market Update
A week and a half in, and it seems pretty clear that we’ll outpace last May’s sales total this time around. That would be the first sales increase since the fall of 2018 when the stress test pulled some sales forward.
As you can see below, although sales are currently only 11 ahead of last year, that is with one fewer business day. There’s a 17% increase in sales to date based on business days, but I expect that will settle down to perhaps 5-10% over by the end of the month. New listings are relatively unchanged from the last two years.
Weekly numbers courtesy of the VREB.
| May 2019 |
May
2018
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 121 | 306 | 755 | ||
| New Listings | 298 | 671 | 1504 | ||
| Active Listings | 2798 | 2881 | 2394 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 41% | 46% | 50% | ||
| Sales Projection | — | 820 | |||
| Months of Inventory | 3.2 | ||||
In other news, the new Ontario government has stopped publishing statistics on foreign buyer transactions since they came into power. It’s no secret that they want to get rid of the tax, and I suspect the cessation of data publishing was done quite deliberately so that if they kill the tax in the future they can claim that the problem was solved so the tax is no longer needed. Without data, who can object? It’s a reminder that transparency can easily be undone, and no matter what you think about the foreign buyers tax, it seems difficult to argue that it is in the public’s best interest to know less.
For years journalists and researchers in Vancouver tried to bring attention to the issue that foreign buyers were having an outsized impact on prices in certain regions. However because they were relying on proxy data sources like electricity consumption or owner names, their arguments could (and were) easily dismissed. It wasn’t until aggregate land transfer data started being published that the truth came out. Open data in more areas allows the public to continue to provide a reality and fact check on the government so that we are not dependent on official or biased narratives. I hope that is an issue that folks of every political persuasion can get behind and Ontario eventually reverses their decision.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/05/18/the-slightly-expanded-land-owner-transparency-act
Come on LF, it’s different this time.
Great article.
For anyone interested, here is a fascinating historical account (with pictures!) of Vancouver real estate’s only other bubble that rivals its current one – 1905-1913.
https://onthisspot.ca/cities/vancouver/realestate
An excerpt from the above link:
Foreign money…poured in, sending real estate prices through the roof, while shady realtors encouraged Vancouverites from all walks of life to invest their life savings in buying up speculative plots of land on the fringes of town. The speculative fever infected society, and thousands made off with fortunes they scarcely could have dreamed of a few short years before. Thousands more were left destitute, priced out of the market by soaring property taxes and rents.
Vancouver boasted twice as many real estate brokerages for its population than any other Canadian city. These predatory brokers formed a “floating army of land sharks swarming hungrily,” arm-twisting the working classes into investing what little they had in real estate.
Vancouverites awoke to economic reality in mid-1913. A financial crisis on Wall Street sent shockwaves around the global economy causing foreign investment to dry up almost overnight. Thousands were thrown out of work and started defaulting on their property loans. Strikes and labour unrest convulsed the province. Commercial rents declined by half as consumer spending dried up and businesses were forced to shutter.
The building boom stopped dead in its tracks as construction companies ran out of money. Building permits shriveled from 1912’s all-time high of $20 million to below $1 million by 1916.
Real estate prices fell by up to 90%. A lot on Cambie and Broadway originally listed for $90,000 eventually sold for less than $8,000. Thousands of property owners failed to pay the property taxes on the empty speculative lots they had been encouraged to buy, causing municipalities to go bankrupt.
Vancouver’s cityscape suddenly froze in time. Few new buildings were erected downtown for decades. In 1912 Vancouver’s skyline was dominated by the Hotel Vancouver, the Sun Tower, the Dominion Tower, the Birks Building, and the Vancouver Block which had all been built in quick succession. That skyline would remain largely unchanged until after World War II.
Canadian Mortgage Debt Now Over $1.55 Trillion
April 29, 2019 https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-mortgage-debt-prints-slowest-growth-for-the-month-since-1983/#_
“The balance of mortgage debt at Canadian institutional lenders reached a record high. This represents an increase of 3.2%, when compared to the same month last year. The annualized pace of growth is significantly higher than the annual pace of growth. The 3 month annualized pace of growth reached 3.8%“
Vancouver real estate market…bloodbath.
Victoria next.
Banks trying to get a larger slice of an increasingly shrinking pie…
He was in a 2 year technician program at a community college.
If you were given a temporary visa you have to leave when it’s expired or if you violate its terms. I don’t see what’s harsh about that.
10 year down to 2.94%
If someone is coming here as a worker they should apply under that category. Being a full time student is not compatible with working 40 hours a week. The reality is that if they allow people to work 40 hours a week people will use the student visa category for that purpose, which will have negative impacts on post-secondary environments. I would like to see Sandhu’s attendance record – I bet he missed a lot of classes.
That being said, deportation seems a little harsh.
Yeah sorry I agree with patriotz on this one. The rules are clear and I see no societal good by rebranding study permits as work permits.
If this guy is an engineering genius that we want to bring to Canada despite his inability to afford international tuition then let’s award a scholarship instead.
I don’t ever want to see someone attending college full time also working full time as a truck driver, regardless of where they are from.
Have you bent/broken any rules like this “I worked too many hours so I could pay for my $27k tuition” guy in your life?
If so, then how about a little compassion? Punish him with a fine, don’t deport him and destroy his Canadian dream. It is by citizens speaking up about it that the govt gets the message and the rules get changed.
Wait, are we supposed to feel bad for someone not abiding by the terms of their study permit? Upholding the rules is a good thing. If we want to raise the limit for hours worked then let’s do that, not look the other way when people exceed it.
“The spokesperson also referenced a report from the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) created on the day of Sandhu’s arrest that said he was “inadmissible” to Canada for breaking the terms of his study permit, noting that this decision was upheld by Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board in a March 2018 hearing.”
So the guy had been ruled inadmissible over a year ago, but he chose to defy the ruling and kept on working full time.
As pointed out in the article, the limit of 20 hours of work a week is not arbitrary. Working more than this is not compatible with being a full time student. It is also pointed out that this limit does not apply during breaks in the program.
1550 Rockland @ 1.65 million is an amazing deal. Congrats to the buyer. You will not lose long term owning 1/2 acre in a prestigious area in the core. In 20 years, population growth will likely force sub division of properties this large and the recent buyer will have made a killer investment.
As I’ve said previously, this slow down is an amazing opportunity to buy luxury or large lots from those willing to sell at discount prices. I believe it’s much harder to find value in the sub $1 million market.
We’ve all seen articles about the “deadbeat” rich foreign students in BC who “own RE yet don’t contribute to BC because they aren’t working and paying taxes here.” And so many here cheer when we add huge “satellite family” spec taxes to them.
But hey! We’ve finally found some actual criminal activity going on with these foreign students and have an arrest and deportation. Awesome! But it wasn’t money laundering or drug dealing. They’re only allowed to work 20 hours a week and we found one working 40 hours a week (because he’s poor and needed to pay $27k tuition himself). The horror! So we have arrested and are deporting a foreigner! https://globalnews.ca/news/5269138/international-student-arrested-facing-deportation-work-permit/
Our police (who seem to have no time for ML investigations) found time to arrest this student on the side of the Toronto 401 highway for “working too hard” . He’s driving a truck 40 hours a week while completing his engineering diploma. No suggestion of anything else than he exceeded the arbitrary limit of 20 hours per week. And just to show how law abiding he is otherwise, he doesn’t even own any RE here!
Anyway if you agree with me that this “working too hard, paying $27k tuition himself” kid should get a break, and be allowed to stay, please sign the petition here https://you.leadnow.ca/petitions/minister-ahmed-d-hussen-give-jobandeep-a-temporary-resident-permit
This may also encourage the govt to change the current law – that has so an arbitrary limit of 20 hours per week applied, and a violation of this leads to a police arrest on the highway and a deportation.
The Gordon Head Report (all recent sales):
4304 Houlihan Pl
Sold: $1,159,000 ($34K above assessment)
1804 La Fontaine Close
Sold: $920,000 ($73K above assessment)
3991 Hopesmore Dr
Sold: $830,000 ($48K below assessment)
2355 Arbutus Rd
Sold: $980,000 ($305K below assessment—holy cow!)
1920 High Park Pl
Sold: $1,035,000 (same as assessment)
2015 Dron Pl
Sold: $1,225,000 ($61K below assessment)
1633 Alderwood St
Sold: $830,000 ($74K above assessment)
1798 Brymea Lane
Sold: $976,000 ($111K below assessment)
4520 Balmacarra Rd
Sold: $1,030,000 ($89K above assessment)
4033 Cedar Hill Rd
Sold: $811,000 (same as assessment)
4540 Bissenden Pl
Sold: $925,000 ($68K below assessment)
This batch seems to have more below-assessment sales than previous batches.
LeeoS: My impression is that prices in Rockland have not seen the sort of increases as Oak Bay or the Uplands have seen.
I will get off the teacher topic by releasing my occasional Gordon Head Report soon!
We put 18% down. (We weren’t as wise then as we are now.)
My understanding is that we have some sort of Coast Capital in-house insurance.
Precisely. If strikes didn’t inconvenience people, they wouldn’t be effective.
When B.C. teachers go on strike, however, the government likes it, IMO. First, most parents tend to turn on the teachers, so there’s little incentive for government to acquiesce to teacher demands. Second, when teachers go on strike, the salary teachers give up while on strike ends up paying for the bulk of the funding increase they were originally asking for.
IMO, it would be more effective for teachers to enact work-to-rule (that is, stop volunteering for all extracurriculars). Although, the government can still lock the teachers out, which is functionally like a strike and saves the government boatloads of money.
A more-than-inflation salary increase is necessary at some point if teachers are ever to reach parity with their colleagues across the country.
Marko or anyone, are there guidelines for real estate agents when calculating the floor space of a condo does one include floor space in a sloped attic that is less than five feet or four feet high? I am curious because I was looking at a listing for a condo in the neighbourhood that is for sale which is basically a third floor walkup and I am guessing that about 20% of it is under five feet. Does that count as floor space? What percentage of buyers in Victoria are hobbits?
While we are on the topic if you are a Nazgul Ringwraith are you permitted to stable your brimstone breathing horse in the garage? And yes, we were watching Lord of the Rings last night.
1550 Rockland, discussed several times here over the last year when it was first listed sold at $1.65M. Original list $2.97M.
An example of when I would have no problem with people re-listing their house to reset the days on market. A listing at $1M less can definitely be considered to be “new”.
Ok, no more about teachers. Not really real estate related, I get it!
I dunno, did you put less than 20% down?
Can we get off the teacher topic?
Mine’s not insured?
I’ll echo that. We’ve been members of Landlord BC since the beginning; the forms, credit checks, and anytime advice has been very helpful, especially early on.
https://landlordbc.ca/
Koalas,
I was not talking about or against anyone’s right. It is about the reason why anyone wants to be a teacher and the consequences/impacts of teachers’ strike/work-to-rule actions to our children.
I am also supportive of teachers’ efforts to improve learning environment. There are other ways, say to write to local newspapers/websites, put up posters wherever allowed , and hold weekend demonstrations, talk to MLAs, …, would probably gain more public support than to use children as pawns and walk out on them to stand on busy traffic intersections, especially when there is more-than-inflation salary increase request involved.
Probably enough talk about teachers’ strike for me now 😉
So if you have a crazy girlfriend and their two psycho kids the secret is to just apply for an apartment on your own and then just have them move in with you after the lease is signed. Seems like one more good reason not to have a rental suite in your basement.
On a different note, we were driving around today and noticed that there seems to a lot of fresh sold signs.
Full disclosure: I am not a lawyer. However, as far as I can make it, it is a right under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (section 2d) that: A meaningful process of collective bargaining also requires the ability of employees to participate in the collective withdrawal of services (i.e., to strike) where good-faith negotiations break down (Saskatchewan Federation of Labour v. Saskatchewan, 2015 SCC 4 (“ SFL”) at paragraph 75).
As far as I can make it, there has been some discussion whether the right to strike should extend to ‘essential services’ such as firemen and hospital workers. I don’t think any argument has been made to support the idea of teachers as essential workers.
Of course I fully understand that when teachers strike, they harm the students and their parents first. (I am a parent of a child and have experienced teacher work to rule) However, if the right to strike is removed, I fail to see the actual purpose of unions. Striking is one of the only mechanisms that labour has to rectify asymmetric power relations. Removing that right effectively declaws unions rendering them unable to fulfil their mandate.
You could argue that many strikes, sanitation strikes for instance, harm people who are not actively involved in collective bargaining. However, there have been many instances in history, and today, of strikes by teachers, sanitation workers and others that have succeeded in giving improved services to the public. In my own province, for instance, the main thrust of the 2016 strike was to reduce class sizes and increase specialized staff who are qualified to work with student with special needs. Specifically as a parent, I was very supportive of the teachers’ efforts to improve my daughter’s learning environment.
Do you hold the view that labour should only strike if it harms no ‘innocent bystanders’? If so, what alternative would you propose that would enable organized labour to apply pressure in order to protect their rights and/or improve their working conditions?
Off the topic wrt teachers.
Been a teacher for a short time myself, I understand and appreciate the hours and efforts teachers put into their work; Been a student for more than 20 years in myself, I respect teachers for their passion and desire to help young people. It is a nice and respectable profession, and I would think, without the passion and desire to help, one wouldn’t be a good teacher or wouldn’t last on the job.
But I don’t agree with teachers’ strike/work-to-rule, as those actions victimizing students and against the reason of being a teacher.
It all depends on the lease agreement you have with the tenant. We used to manage a SFH with up/down suites for out of town friends for multiple years until 2016, run into multiple cases including guests (maximum 14 cumulative days per year), additional tenant (needed landlord written permission), squatter (needed tenant to call police), sublet (old tenant on the hook for everything), and assignment (new tenant took over everything), …
We joined BC landlord association then and used their enhanced rental lease form. Believe me, the $100+ annual fee was the best money any landlord could spend as you can get a solution and/or sound advice from them for every issue you have, so highly recommended.
In our tenant agreement we stipulated single occupancy only. Would highly recommend it!
Only for insured mortgages though.
Things will get interesting if a low 10-year rate like that is still around when I renew in the fall. Would be tempting to lock in that great rate and forget about it for the balance of my mortgage (~8 years to go, maybe less).
I have no personal experience with this. But I found this:
https://www.readytorentbc.org/residential_tenancy_act/
Maybe those teachers should have thought out a better career path. You don’t get into teaching to be a millionaire or own a house in the core. The “big raise” money can be better utilized elsewhere.
You, as the landlord, probably have no say in this matter and the boyfriend does not need to be added to the lease, he can just move in whenever he wants. This was the ‘law’ 12 years ago when it happened to me, and I doubt it has changed.
The tenant and I both went the the RTO for clarification and arbitration. The tenant won and I, as the landlord, was forced to accept the crazy girlfriend as a tenant. The arbitrator was a lawyer under contract to the RTO, and she made it clear to me that a tenant’s dwelling is their family home, and landlords must recognize and accept that families change and a landlord should expect that a single person will probably get a partner eventually.
@ Victoria Born
I’m confused… Carol James says it’s passed… ??
“Our legislation to help end hidden ownership of land has officially passed. This world-leading registry will uncover the true owners of B.C. real estate, and stop people from using numbered companies to hide who really owns property in BC. ”
https://twitter.com/carolejames/status/1129188138604158977?fbclid=IwAR0vutkycXIgFi5CWPJ9KL5r9iB3yb_W3a1uvdmtWW4lu2q2ZGnHhoowgn8
@ ViolaP
From what I understand, they can’t search by your name. So by that means, they would already have to know the home address of where the person lives, or have a pretty good idea, to be able to pull the address up online, pay and then see who owns it. No different than the current title search that happens when you run a title search for a particular property. LTSA. https://ltsa.ca/
If people are in sensitive areas of work and feel they need to keep their info private, then I believe there will be exceptions for that info not to be published publicly.
The point of the registry is to catch the shady people hiding behind corporations etc. If everyone had played by the rules to begin with, this wouldn’t have been necessary. Other countries have something similar to this – I believe the UK and California do, but don’t quote me on that…
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Tomato 59817: Best post to date. Dont you hate it when you have a thought and it just slips out of your mind.
.
Anyone honestly think that this will save the Vancouver housing market at this point?
In Manitoba there was a divorce lawyer who had her hand blown up by a mail bomb sent by the angry ex spouse of her client. Are they actually going to publish people’s residential addresses with their names in a searchable online database? It just seems like a bad idea. What about all the Crown prosecutors, divorce lawyers, police officers, and others working in areas where they are legitimate concerns about people wanting to harm them? I admit ignorance about this.
I would like a post on this new Act. If that’s of interest.
Thanks for all your efforts with the blog Leo.
I don’t think they necessarily need to be paid more, but better funding for ‘the system’. If you compare public vs well-funded private systems, the differences in education are pretty clear.
Land Owner Transparency Act has not passed yet. The White paper is available, but it has not passed in the legislature yet. Looking forward to it passing. The fines are hefty. Great to see BC leading the country. BUT, none of this matters until the Feds get on board [re criminal enforcement] and we see more Provinces do the same. If it happens in Alberta and someone sells for big bucks and comes to buy here, we are still experiencing the problem. Property is provincial jurisdiction, not Federal, so the Provinces and Territories have to follow if we are to stem the tide. Alberta, strangely, is opposed – the Maloney report pegs them at #1 for money laundering. You know Doug Ford won’t follow. Great to see the Federal Conservatives on board with a “law and order” theme. I hope to see the Criminal Code amended when Trudeau is tossed. We need a dedicated investigation body tasked with prosecution and civil forfeiture. It will pay for itself.
Another change would be to require buyers to show where the money is coming from if they are paying cash or 50% [pick a number] down.
10 year fixed rate available for 2.99%
I remember when 5 year rates crossed into 2.99% and the finance minister warned banks not to advertise such irresponsibly low rates.
https://www.ratespy.com/10-year-fixed-rates-under-3-first-time-ever-05179425
How would paying more to teachers actually positively affect education in this province? I’m honestly not trying to disparage the profession. I can understand wanting a wage increase, and truthfully I’m in a position where if they get above 2% it affects me materially. I have the same salary as they do after 10 years, and it’s definitely not shit pay. It’s well above the family average for Victoria, and they have 3 months off a year.
I imagine that Introvert’s argument is (correct me if I’m wrong intro):
Even though Alberta’s recent finances are worse than BC’s (as evidenced by the deficit), Alberta has chosen to prioritize proper renumeration of their teachers. How much money is allocated to important services such as education is more often a question of political will than a reflection of financial reality. At least in Canada that is largely the case.
Is there any general profession in which pay is higher in BC than in Alberta? Honest question.
Hey Introvert, this is a real estate blog. Enough with the teacher salary bullshit.
A tenant’s boyfriend wants to move in and be added to the lease. Does anyone know of any concerns with this? Obviously he would go through the same vetting process as the other tenants (application, reference checks, etc…)
tia if you have any experience with this sort of thing.
Still 68 billion in debt.
So we should follow? I’m not really following the logic here.
Can’t find newer data than 2014/2015 from StatsCan:
B.C. elementary school teachers:
• 2nd-worst salary for starting teachers
• 4th-worst salary for 10-year teachers
• 4th-worst salary for 15-year teachers
Rankings are the same for middle and high school teachers.
Starting teachers in Alberta earn $11K a year more. After 10 years of experience, they earn $13K a year more.
B.C. has been running budget surpluses for many years. Alberta has been running deficits for many years.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/81-604-x/2017001/t/tbld2.1-eng.htm
Didn’t realize that London was a bike lane mecca.
Some how Copenhagen and Amsterdam don’t have an issue at all.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2019FIN0037-000545
NDP legislation to help end hidden ownership of land has officially passed.
Maybe, just maybe, that’s why I asked.
Wouldn’t trust the article without actual data.
Just taking Ontario though, they have kids for 6 hour a day, and have a legislated minimum of 194 days at school a year. (http://www.edu.gov.on.ca/eng/general/list/calendar/holidaye.html) vs. BC which has no set minimum number of days, but does have a minimum number of hours (https://www.sd61.bc.ca/news-events/calendars/school-calendar-faqs/). If you take the minimum number of hours divided by 5:10, it gives you nearly 170 days. Ontario teachers are working 285 hours with kids more than BC teachers. Clearly should be paid more. This is not even taking into account that the class sizes in Ontario are bigger.
I agree with you, but you can say exactly the same thing for some builders, inspectors, and related professionals. There is a lot of education (and research) that needs to happen as the step code is implemented.
The plague of cyclists. Responsible for 0.6% of UK pedestrian fatalities. Time for a crackdown.
+1 for teachers. Underpaid and over-worked. I hope they get a big increase.
The Land Owner Transparency Act, which establishes a beneficial owner registry of those who own RE in BC, has just passed in the Legislature.
Bike lanes – they’re not just for preening anymore.
“The number of pedestrians hit by bicycles has increased to its highest level in at least five years just as the government prepares to crack down on dangerous cyclists.
Figures published by the Department for Transport (DfT) show that 531 people were involved in collisions with cyclists in 2017, up by 15 per cent in 12 months. The accident rate was higher than at any time since at least 2013 when the statistics were first published. More than 120 pedestrians were seriously hurt in collisions with bikes last year and three were killed, the figures show.”
The reference is to London.
Thank you Leo for the over 3 million sales numbers; as always you are a pro,
The article I cited earlier states that B.C. teachers are the 2nd-lowest paid in the country.
https://www.straight.com/news/1241651/patti-bacchus-bctf-contract-talks-war-two-words
Teachers can’t remedy that this negotiating round (or perhaps ever, really) because the government has cleverly built in “me too” clauses in all its agreements with the unions, effectively forcing every union to accept the government’s offer of 2% a year for 3 years (which, keep in mind, is below inflation).
That’s all fine and good, because we shouldn’t feel too sorry for union workers, except I’m not sure how sustainable it is in the long-run for the province with the best economy in Canada to keep paying its teachers the second-lowest wages. Especially with B.C.’s very high cost of living. It certainly can’t help in terms of attracting and retaining talent.
And on top of that, I’m reading that they want to rejig class size and composition (read: make class sizes bigger and allow a greater number of students with special needs per class). Teachers fought for 14 years and won in the Supreme Court of Canada to get back to the reasonable class size and composition levels that were illegally taken away from them by then-Education Minister Christy Clark, and now the NDP wants to take us back to the bad years?
I’d be happy to pay increased taxes if it meant no more teachers’ strikes; better paid, happier teachers; smaller class sizes; and more supports for students who need them.
One thing for sure we don’t need is an owner builder that thinks they know building science because they answered a question about dew point
1561 Despard: $3.29M
1535 Despard: $2.97M
I’ve got some teachers in the family. It is confirmed not a cushy job. Teachers actually work a bonkers number of hours, which makes their $/hour rate super low. The time off is nice, but I’m convinced they need all of it just to stop them from looking for a less stressful profession.
Seriously James – you might want to go spend time with a teacher. Lesson plans, grading, dealing with parents, students, IPPs, adminstrators, government-mandated paperwork, and so so much more make for a very long day and well beyond when your kid departs the school grounds.
Edit: I see that Sidekick answered as I was writing my reply and we said pretty much the same. There is a lot more that goes into teaching a child than just showing up when the bell rings. I volunteered often in my daughter’s classes in elementary school and it is a very draining day for the teacher with a lot of work that is outside of the 5 hours that students are in the classroom.
…and thanks to all the volunteers. Us parents salute you.
Preparing for the next day. Lesson plans, supporting materials, photocopying, supplies, cleaning etc. It’s not like you can just show up at 8.40 and teach. To be fair, I had no idea until I married one, and before that I thought it was a cushie job.
The various governing bodies would be good to just change the official hours to 8 to 5 (since I hear that is what most teachers work). Might help change public perception.
The other thing I think many people underestimate (I certainly did) is how draining it is trying to herd (and teach) 15 to 20 young kids. I’m tired after 2 hours with my own two young ones, so 5+ hours with a bunch of them is not a walk in the park.
Just wondering, how does she finish at 5? My kid is out of school at 2:50.
I volunteer coach youth hockey(not my kids team), I wouldn’t ever consider that part of my job, or work hours.
edit: to be clear, i wasn’t saying that I would even take their job if offered, I’m just saying that it makes sense that they make less than in other provinces since their days are shorter, they have more time off (1 week extra at xmas & spring break). BC is also definitely not the lowest paid province in Canada.
They get 1/4 of the year. I don’t feel like there should be any cause for complaint there.
“Meh. My partner is an elementary school teacher. She works harder than I do for a lot less pay. On paper it looks good, but the reality is far different. She starts at 8 and finishes at 5, but stays until 7 or 8 on Fridays to prepare for the next week. That doesn’t count the various committees she’s on or extra-curricular activities she organizes.”
Agree.
Lots of people grossly underestimate how much work teachers do, including elementary teachers. It’s not just showing up in the classroom on time, there are hours upon hours of preparation, marking, and correspondence. Only counting the hours they are f2f with students is kind of like only thinking lawyers are working when they are in court.
They should get lots of time off since they don’t get to pick when it is. That sort of makes up for it.
Meh. My partner is an elementary school teacher. She works harder than I do for a lot less pay. On paper it looks good, but the reality is far different. She starts at 8 and finishes at 5, but stays until 7 or 8 on Fridays to prepare for the next week. That doesn’t count the various committees she’s on or extra-curricular activities she organizes.
No doubt the job has perks, but the general public has no idea what goes on behind the scenes.
What a piece of shit.
That being said, I’ve crapped on the fort street one, but only because after cook street it makes no fucking sense. There’s no way that you should have to cross 3 lanes of traffic on a hill to the other side of the road to continue biking in a bike lane.
The models used to estimate the impact of money laundering on prices / economy are suspect. However, I am of the conviction that the quantum and impact are even greater than what is reported.
I suspect that the inquiry will not yield as much as folks believe. It will be expensive. Every witness is entitled to counsel to be funded by the tax payer. There is a right against self-incrimination under the Charter.
I see the discussion below about lawyer pay. Lots of conjecture about starting pay, big vs small firms and hourly rates. The highest paid lawyers, believe it or not, are not paid hourly. There are only so many hours in a day. The highest paid lawyers are tort lawyers who are paid on a contingency fee basis [33.33% on car accident cases, 40% on everything else] – be it motor vehicle injury claims, occupiers liability, product liability or class action – nothing even comes close.
They’re a huge part of the budget and they already make pretty good money considering at the elementary level, they have a total of 5 hours 10 minutes with kids and 3 months off. (2 months of summer, 2 weeks at Christmas, 2 weeks at March break.) They might not make as much as their counter parts in the other parts of the country, but they have shorter days, and more time off, and better class size composition, so that kind of makes sense.
In other news, contract negotiations between teachers and the province aren’t going as auspiciously as one would have hoped given that the NDP is in power.
Under the file called “What the Eff Are You Thinking?”, BCPSEA (the government’s bargaining arm) is tabling concessions on class size and composition:
So, who’s in the mood for a school stoppage in September? 🙁
https://www.straight.com/news/1241651/patti-bacchus-bctf-contract-talks-war-two-words
Can someone tell me what 4591 Cordova Bay Rd sold for last? Seems to me it was 5 years or so ago. I see it listed at a fantasy price today and just curious to track. The property next to it was sold a few years ago and is being developed. I saw in Saanich council notes that there is a contested issue about a shared driveway if that development goes through.
That’s what it’s looking like. He says he wants to return to his job ASAP, but the police still have some questions for him, apparently.
Full report
https://www.scribd.com/document/410339026/Redacted-McLachlin-report
Comes down to Mr James engaging in improper conduct in relation to:
Maybe I’m mistaken but Lenz seems to be cleared? If so that could be a problem for how he was kicked out.
This Twitter thread by Rob Shaw presents the itemized findings of former chief justice McLachlin. At times, she seems to give James quite a bit of benefit of the doubt (e.g. the Mariners game on the public dime was just fine).
https://twitter.com/robshaw_vansun/status/1129115068761665536
I’m not too concerned about trying to point the finger at specific people. That would be a happy side effect at best if some people get exposed for actually corrupt actions. I really doubt they will uncover some nefarious plot amongst regulators to work with money launderers anyway. At best some willful blindness or moderate incompetence will be revealed and who does that help really?
Mostly I want them to figure out what needs to be changed so it doesn’t happen again.
There’s an old cynical saying that goes something like, get rid of corruption, or at least allow me to benefit from it…
If there is enough evidence then the clerk should be criminally charged and immediately fired. Assuming there is evidence for criminal charges it is a vital matter of public policy that charges be laid. There has to be consequences over such a blatant high profile case.
What irks me is that this was a very highly paid position not some underpaid job were they stole toilet paper for the family.
Not too many things that get my blood boiling but corruption at the top really does it to me.
A year ago, climate change wasn’t on the Bank of Canada’s radar. Now it’s one of their top 6 risks:
Bank of Canada warns ‘fire sales’ of carbon-intensive assets could ‘destabilize’ financial system
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/05/16/news/bank-canada-warns-fire-sales-carbon-intensive-assets-could-destabilize-financial
Les Leyne: B.C. to dig into shadowy world of dirty money
https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/les-leyne-b-c-to-dig-into-shadowy-world-of-dirty-money-1.23824119
Clerk of House steps down after McLachlin report finds he engaged in improper spending
“But I have had enough. I have been publicly ridiculed and vilified. My family has been deeply hurt and continues to suffer humiliation.”
Perhaps you should have thought about the potential consequences for your family before you decided to bilk the public for years and years.
In an effort to put an end to that, I have decided to retire, and reach a settlement with the Legislative Assembly.
Translation: having worked long enough in my grossly overpaid job, plus having stolen thousands of dollars on top of that, I can quite easily quit and relax for the rest of my life.
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/clerk-of-house-steps-down-after-mclachlin-report-finds-he-engaged-in-improper-spending-1.23824900
Owner builder exam is definitely either corruption (funnels more work to professional builders) or bureaucratic overreach or some combination of the above. Too bad no one seems to care about it enough to make it a higher profile issue. Media has shown some interest, but never really got traction.
Barrister –
To answer your question, no, that’s not how it works in BC. If you hire a licensed Home Builder (general contractor), yes, it’s a similar process, with all sorts of inspections all through the building process that your GC must pass.
But if you wish to save the 15-25% (or more) GC fee and do the contracting yourself, you are considered an ‘Owner-Builder’, and need to pass a knowledge test to even be eligible to apply for a building permit. This is what Marko has been railing against for a few years, arguing that it is an arbitrary bureaucratic barrier to self-empowerment by those who wish to put in sweat equity and save some money, totally pandering to the interests of the corporate construction industry. I happen to agree.
https://www.bchousing.org/licensing-consumer-services/owner-builder/exam
In BC if you kill a cyclist with your car and don’t leave the scene and aren’t drunk or impaired you’ll probably get a $368 fine for driving without due care. That’s how seriously we view that problem.
There are a lot more inspections than that. One of the inspections is vapour/air barrier (per the dew point question).
There are engineering inspections as well.
Only time I’ve ever experienced an inspector not come is for Electrical work done by a certified Electrician.
There appears to be a lot of turnover at the CoV for inspectors. It’s challenging because you may have multiple inspectors on a project and they’ll all be okay with different things (but call out something that a different inspector already looked at and verbally acknowledged).
For anyone crapping on investment in separated bike lanes, this is what happens without them:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-cyclist-struck-elgin-laurier-1.5138159
Beneficial ownership registry was announced way before any of this. UWO is an open item for discussion but no actual plans for this as far as I know.
Seems like the public inquiry might bring some more evidence to this discussion, but we will never get an actual number. It’s impossible. The best you can get is more evidence.
BC does have inspection requirements for construction/upgrades to everything from foundations to electrical. There is an initial/rough in inspection and a final inspection for each discipline. However, there is such a shortage of inspectors here that although an inspection has to be called for by the contractor, the inspection often does not take place.
It’s a bit hit and miss and so I guess the exam is in place so that the owner/builder has a reasonable knowledge of what should or shouldn’t be done. The real solution would be for the city to employ more inspectors.
Yes but the govt is telling is that we need to urgently change our laws in BC because of these high ML numbers they are quoting…. e.g. laws for RE beneficial registry and proposed Unexplained Wealth Order and more action planned. They are the ones telling us that the ML numbers are so big that we need to change our laws ASAP.
If the ML numbers are much smaller, maybe BCers don’t want/need to change our laws, especially laws that might violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms . So the numbers matter to me.
For folks wanting to see the full press interview with the Premier, FIN/AG Minister regarding money laundering in our Province, the YouTube link is below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xqpk3DuH5VQ
OK, so you are willing to assign blame to the media and the report authors.
But are you also willing to assign blame to the govt? For example the BC Finance Minister said this…
https://globalnews.ca/news/5259196/home-prices-in-metro-vancouver-increased-by-5-due-to-money-laundering-report/ (video at 0:24) “The amount of money being laundered in BC is more than anyone predicted. Conservatively, $7.4 billion was laundered in our province last year alone. It’s estimated that $5 billion was laundered through real estate transactions. The panel estimates that money laundering was responsible for increasing BC real estate prices by about 5%. “
—===—===-
Doesn’t that sound definitive when the minister says “Conservatively, $7.4 billion was laundered in our province last year alone. ”
1468 Rockland has just come on the market for 3 Million dollars. It has got me wondering who priced this house since I dont recall a house in Rockland actually selling for 3 million. I could be wrong about that but my recollection is that 2.5 was the upper limit and that was for a premium bed and breakfast business in a mansion with half an acre.
Can one of the real estate guru’s tell me if I am wrong?
Marko: Being from Toronto I am bit confussed abouthow things work here in BC. When I rebuilt my Toronto housewe had to stop multiple times and have the city’s building inspector approve what had been done with an eye to making sure the project is totally up to code.The first approval required was very detailed plans including an engineer approved plan for the roof trusses.So many years later I dont remeber precisely how many inspections there were but it was a lot. I clearly remeber that the foundation had be inspected be both before and after the concrete was poured. More than one thing had to redone.
I was under the impression that BC had the same system of building inspectors and, if true, what possible earthly need is there for this exam?
Money laundering experts? All it takes was reading the report. I called the model garbage in garbage out last week already. Most of the blame for the definitive reporting is on the media for unquestioningly publishing the numbers, but the report authors deserve some as well for putting definitive numbers on their estimates without always specifying uncertainty.
For me the number doesn’t matter since it can’t be measured. Much more important are the individual cases and the obvious effect of large external cash inflows in Vancouver.
When mass anecdotes don’t match the data it’s time to re-examine the data or get more of it.
It isn’t “embarassing” if it turns out we have less money laundering than some people think.
A point that is ALSO heavily emphasized in the BC money laundering report
Well this is embarrassing for BC and Canada….Bloomberg article has money laundering (ML) experts worldwide throwing cold water on findings from the BC money laundering studies as being “economic models” with “assumptions” and “little hard evidence” and the amounts could be “much smaller”
Bloomberg May 15, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/vancouver-s-dirty-money-figures-the-smoking-gun-that-wasn-t
“Vancouver’s dirty money figures: The smoking gun that wasn’t
– Billion-dollar estimates derived from economic modeling
-One study points to China as source of cash, the other U.S.“
“A closer reading of the two studies B.C. used to support its dirty money announcements show there’s little hard evidence of actual money laundering
A closer reading of the two studies the government used to support its announcements show there’s little hard evidence of actual money laundering, and even then, the amounts could be much smaller. And while one report said much of the suspect money is coming from China, the other pointed to the U.S.
“It’s very difficult for us to really accurately estimate the volume of flows of money laundering,” said Vanessa Iafolla, who researches money laundering at the University of Waterloo. “It’s hard to measure something that you can’t see.””
“The methodology in the first study, known as the gravity model, seeks to determine how much dirty money is floating around the world, what portion needs to be laundered, and how much each region is likely to attract. Launderers are expected to gravitate to safe havens and rich economies where it’s easier to hide ill-gotten gains. It assumes that criminals, like most people, channel most of their financial assets into real estate. Geographical and cultural proximity, including a history of migration, are thrown into the mix.”
Got to bring up this old post. I’m curious how you can call this “Complete Bullshit” when you don’t actually know the exact question they asked. It’s clear they were asking a question about dew point which is very important to the building envelope.
It’s pretty tough to see your side of the argument that the Home builders exam is a waste of time when one of it’s intents is to prevent some of the issues that arise from building a more energy efficient building. The average person simply doesn’t have enough knowledge to build a house to code, even those that have been doing it for a long time have to keep up to date with new construction standards and requirements.
According to your argument Elon Musk should know everything about rocket propulsion and electric battery chemistry?
Building a house is about doing your research (open book) and hiring the right professionals, not some BS closed book exam that few licensed builders in Victoria could actually pass.
Since this exam is so useful why don’t builders have to write it? Owner builders get to write a closed book exam and builders get to go on a cruise with no exam -> http://buildingitright.com/featured-cruise.html
Secondly, still waiting for evidence that licensed builder homes are actually better built. I have close builder friends and reality is they are saving money everywhere they can. When they build for re-sale everything is the thinnest OSB possible and when they build their personal home everything is plywood….go figure.
Unlikely to be complementary, at least according to the experts (see quotes below). The point isn’t just that they couldn’t do both at the same time. It is that the inquiry would likely impact and interfere with ongoing investigations/trials, Both Eby and the fed Minister (Blair) have raised those concerns. And the feds have said they might not fully cooperate for that reason, There’s a reason that govt officials say nothing about ongoing investigations, let alone have a simultaneous public inquiry where these issues may get discussed in public.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5273043/bc-money-laundering-public-inquiry-pros-cons/
“Ongoing investigations: Both Horgan and Eby have said they don’t want to decide on a public inquiry until they are sure it would not impact ongoing investigations into money laundering. The federal government has also been unwilling to pledge full commitment to any inquiry for the same reason. fed minister: My only concern is I would not do anything to interfere with ongoing investigations.”
Speaking of reports, this one will drop tomorrow:
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Money_Laundering_Inquiry_Terms_of_Reference.pdf
This doesn’t sound like something that is going to “replace” criminal investigations where sufficient evidence exists.
Criminal investigations and the public inquiry are not mutually exclusive at all. Probably complementary.
And of course we all know that there is likely to have been a lot of dodgy behavior that falls short of criminality that led us to where we are now.
The way to investigate is to do criminal investigations, followed by trials and convictions.
Not a two year public inquiry, followed by a written report.
That’s exactly it. To not bother to investigate sends the wrong message, regardless of the outcome. Accountability IMO is a core principle of good governance.
I get that Eby wants to fix the actual issues, and that should be the first priority, but that everyone gets off scott-free is part of the issue with corruption in this province.
It sounds like Eby wasn’t in favor of this public inquiry… good for him, we agree on something.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5273043/bc-money-laundering-public-inquiry-pros-cons/
“Not solving the problem: A public inquiry can name names, but it can’t solve any problems. Eby says the province is already making changes to get money laundering out of the province but is not confident that a public inquiry would add anything to actually fixing the system.
“A public inquiry would certainly be an answer around the chronology on how we got here. I don’t think a public inquiry would be the answer to stopping it — that is about policing, and we have a very good road map around that now,” Eby said.”
@Marko Juras
Got to bring up this old post. I’m curious how you can call this “Complete Bullshit” when you don’t actually know the exact question they asked. It’s clear they were asking a question about dew point which is very important to the building envelope.
It’s pretty tough to see your side of the argument that the Home builders exam is a waste of time when one of it’s intents is to prevent some of the issues that arise from building a more energy efficient building. The average person simply doesn’t have enough knowledge to build a house to code, even those that have been doing it for a long time have to keep up to date with new construction standards and requirements.
Bringing back an old post. I see 1605 is back on the market. What happened? Now listed at $939k. Is there someone foolish enough to pay this when their realtor should be able to tell them that they had an accepted an offer at $930k? Will be an interesting one to watch.
Introvert wrote:
“1605 Mileva Lane
List: $925,000
Sold: $930,000 ($24K below assessment)
DOM: 6”
AZ wrote:
“Purchased 29-08-2017 for $900,000. Then did a significant reno & added a suite.
Big $$$ loss on that one and it was purchased in 2017. More importantly though is Teranet says prices are down 2.5% from peak…”
Whoopee… more reports!
In 2021, the NDP will have been in power for 4 years, focusing on ML as an issue. They should have results to show by then, not just more reports and political theatre. They can’t just continue to function as an opposition party to the former Liberals on the issue. It’s time to govern and take responsibility.
This public enquiry is big news. I didn’t know if they’d actually do it.
This means they will have the power to compel testimony from the previous administration and anyone else deemed to be involved or have knowledge of the situation.
Mr Coleman, and Mr De Jong, it might be a good idea to take an “extended” vacation to Thailand or some other like place.
Aside from the obvious political theater it’ll create, I think this is again a sign of changing times and that stage where people start to open the books to find out what’s actually been happening here in the RE market.
Do keep in mind – this could happen to any political party. This is especially true if they’ve been in office too long, become complacent, and along comes this flood of money that on paper, makes the party in power look like they’re miracle workers. “Wow, what an amazing surplus!” Heh, well…
I suspect the degree of failure of leadership and our institutions will surprise even those who suspect it will be surprising.
At least Leo is here to clean up after us 🙂
I will likely still let you know the next time Milan Lucic scores (if it ever happens) hahaha.
Bears… news articles…
You live in a world where everyone is with you or against you.
Why do I suspect this will be a deadline they won’t miss…
BREAKING: BC will hold a public inquiry into money laundering.
Final report due by May 2021 … right before the election.
Cool, mortgage debt is losing its value the most in Victoria!
Victoria’s inflation rate higher than any other city in Canada for April
https://www.cheknews.ca/inflation-in-victoria-unchanged-in-april-highest-among-canadian-cities-560938/
Bears often see trends where none exist. It’s very mystical.
Mathew: We can both agree whole heartedly that money laundering is a bad thing and that BC has a real problem. We might also agree that you will never really stop all money laundering. What I suggest is that the government starts by taking some simple measures that dont involve creating a huge bureaucracy, In this day and age of debit cards and electronic transfer I dont see any reason to simply ban cash at casinos altogether.Problem solved. Prohibit businesses from accepting more than a certain amount in cash for any transaction (five thousand might be a good place to start). This would stop the laundering through luxury items. Prohibit the purchase of real estate using cash and prohibit lawyers from accepting cash for any real estate purchase. Real estate can easily be regulated by having proof of fund transfers through legitimate bank transfer be required before any Land title registration.
Will this stop all money laundering, of coarse not but it will mean the big money will move to greener pastures. Criminals are very inventive when it comes to money laundering and it will continue but at least we might be able to get a lot of the money out of real estate and certainly out of the casinos.
Matthew.
Much respect. +1.
Apology accepted and no hard feelings. Dont stop writing you often have thoughtful things to say.
Barrister: Sorry about some of my recent comments. I didn’t mean to be so harsh. Sometimes I get carried away and I will have to work on that. Same to you James.
I won’t pretend that I understand the full methodology, but as a repeat sales index it may well be affected somewhat by sales mix changes. If one segment like luxury houses are dropping like in Vancouver, but they simply aren’t selling most of the time, then there won’t be very many sales pairs, which means although the drop in the high end is more significant it won’t be captured in the teranet until those properties actually sell. I suspect that’s part of the reason that Vancouver decline according to Teranet looks so mild.
It will eventually self correct as the sellers of the high end properties are forced to sell roughly in their more normal proportion to the rest of the market
BC Attorney General David Eby on money laundering -April 2019
https://youtu.be/Hm7B0pY1ZPE
wow .. austrailia professor was using Vancouver as an example of how money laundering was done before gov’t even acknowledge there was even a problem .. greed is king
Yes, that falling homeowner delinquency rate seems to fall like the Hoyes homeowner bankruptcy index, so they are well co-related. And will both rise for sure if things get worse.
Perhaps more direct there is mortgages in arrears, which are currently very low in BC (0.14%) but will very likely rise if we are in for a period of flat or declining prices.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2017/05/25/paying-the-vig/
Nice graphs, thanks.
Agreed (no trend) for the total population. But if you see that Hoyes Canadian homeowner bankruptcy index I posted (previous post) , it shows homeowner bankruptcies down 75% from 2016 to now. (Ie down from 20% of all bankruptcies to 5%). That’s a big drop.
I assume when people here are interested in bankruptcies rising (relevant to housing), it is in homeowner bankruptcies, which have been falling for at least 9 years according to that index.
Thanks, very interesting.
Poetic and hilarious, thanks
Veyr slow, but not quite at a standstill like in Vancouver. Some units still shifting.
Sales and active listings over $2M between January and April:
2016: 37 / 83
2017: 35 / 107
2018: 30 / 130
2019: 23 / 167
So you could say that the market now is only a third as active as it was 3 years ago.
Nice Graph Leo.
I wouldn’t say there is any discernible trend in bankruptcies or proposals at the moment.
Rush4life,
When you see bankruptcy stats in Canada, there is an important metric. Only 5% of bankruptcies are filed by homeowners, the other 95% are filed by renters (non homeowners). This metric is tracked and charted here. https://www.hoyes.com/press/homeowner-bankruptcy-index/
It’s also backed up by other data showing 4X higher credit card delinquency by non-homeowners than owners. (In Vancouver). All this is likely due to higher incomes for homeowners and of course home equity that can be tapped.
And yes, if house prices fall, equity falls and this 5% number will rise, but at least you should be aware of it to realize that, as of now, bankruptcy isn’t a homeowner issue in Canada.
If you look at that homeowner bankruptcy index, you can see a clear trend for reduced percent of bankruptcies filed by homeowners. Given that overall bankruptcies are flat, that means bankruptcies among homeowners are falling.
I have heard lots about Vancouvers high end market really being down in value but not much on ours. What is going on with our luxury market?
Local Fool – much better said in a couple lines then my few paragraphs haha. And Patrick i was being somewhat cheeky – i understand we won’t want people getting themselves into a position where they feel there only option is bankruptcy – but if you’re already there then i’m fine seeing the numbers increase. ALso good point on the BC numbers.
Financial crime panel- NCA Vancouver Housing Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxMCmFsOC5A
While bankruptcies don’t indicate good things are happening, the right of a person to declare it is an essential element in maintaining the health of our economy.
I don’t care if people are claiming bankruptcy – good for them! Patrick, bankruptcy’s aren’t inherently bad. In fact they can be good. Would you rather people struggle to make payments while interest rates have crept up and banks are hammering out lines of credit for anyone who will take them? Its not a good way to live and can be detrimental to a family/household. ONly 15% of people who claim once will go on to claim a second time – meaning 85% of people learn from their mistakes (https://loanscanada.ca/debt/the-cost-of-filing-for-bankruptcy-a-second-time-in-canada/). I see no problems with bankruptcy – its better then people trying to “hang on” because they are too embarrassed to go bankrupt IMO.
Debt is high now as it was in 2008 per capita (https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/consumer-debt-loans-canada-1.4878132). ANd yet bankruptcies are lower – this could mean people are ashamed and don’t want want to admit they need help. I use to work at a big 5 and when i first started in 2011 they had a rule where if you missed your LOC payment two months in a row (didn’t happen often) that they would bump up your interest rate by 5% for 6 months (provided you made the pmts in time for the 6 months). Then they changed the rule before i left (2016) to if you missed two payments within a 12 month period you got bumped up 5% for a WHOLE YEAR. Its disgusting. IMagine have a secured LOC with 100K on it and your barely making the payments at 4%. Then you miss a couple payments over a 12 month time frame and suddenly your payments have doubled! for a whole year! no negotiation no nothing. The banks don’t give a shit. People shouldn’t care about them either in these scenarios.
As Creed from the office says – “bankrupcy is natures do-over” – all jokes aside though i’m not going to feel bad if bankruptcies increase unless you can find me some evidence that people are not claiming bankruptcy because they don’t need to and they are living stress free lives – which from our debt numbers i would doubt.
Yep, and folks should be keeping an eye on consumer proposals – that can spike earlier and more severely than bankruptcies will. Note that both are considered “insolvencies” under the data collected nationally.
In BC there’s been a notable YOY increase (about 8%) in consumer proposals, but bankruptcies will inevitably rise as the squeeze on the lower mainland continues to push the overleveraged over the brink. Ontario is fairing marginally worse, and Alberta much worse than that.
But BC’s highly RE-centric economy and its resultant sensitivity to a RE downturn risks making insolvencies that much more acute. While they can trickle up at first – it often spikes just like a set of dominoes once the economic effects of a RE downturn start to bite. With sales volumes showing little signs of improving in BC, we appear to be getting there, but aren’t there yet.
How’s the unemployment rate in Victoria? You said it was the biggest indicator of whether real estate would go up. I mean beside the headlines…
Also, you keep saying bankrupcies are down, but insolvencies are actually at the highest they’ve been in Canada since 2009.
Yawn……since BC bankruptcies actually are still trending down.
Media have had attn grabbing headlines like this for years.
There is one source of numbers for this, and it is here. Look at the numbers yourself.
https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/h_br04091.html#tbl2
2019 Q1….BC consumer bankruptcies …
Last 12 months vs previous 12 months….BC Down -2%
2019 Q1’s vs 2018 Q1…. BC down -5.5%
2019 Q1 vs 2018 Q4 … BC up 3.8% (likely seasonal due to holidays in Q4)
(fwiw, Canada wide bankruptcies down more dramatically)
I’m assuming this is good news for all to hear, because noone wants to see people declaring bankruptcy.
Canadian bankruptcies jump up – https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/05/14/canadian-bankruptcies-increase_a_23725560/?utm_hp_ref=ca-business
“Higher interest rates and a record-large debt burden are taking their toll on Canadians, with the number of households filing for insolvency hitting an eight-year high in the first quarter of this year.
There were 32,239 consumer insolvencies in the first quarter of 2019, according to the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada. That number that includes both bankruptcies and consumer proposals, an increasingly popular alternative to bankruptcy.
It’s the highest number of insolvencies since 2011, and marks a 6.1-per-cent increase from a year earlier, the largest such jump since 2009, when Canadians were dealing with the fallout from the global financial crisis.”
Patrick, you’re too much!
I think you get a certificate if you pass the stress test. If you fail you get a participation ribbon.
But I suppose if you couldn’t prove that you ever passed the stress test your mortgage renewal could be denied, and your house could be seized subject to a UHO. (Unexplained House Order)
On the surface of it it seems to make sense that switchers shouldn’t have to pass the stress test again. If you are allowed to renew with the same lender then you should be allowed to switch as well. Although I do wonder how many people this would actually affect. Right now there are a few that are coming up on renewal and can’t pass the stress test, but that number will quickly dwindle. Soon everyone will have gotten their mortgage via stress test and only very few will have had their situations deteriorate to the point where they would fail the stress test after ~5 years of equity paydown and income gains.
However as long as it doesn’t open up a loophole (how do you prove you passed the stress test originally?) it makes sense to allow lender switches if the mortgage isn’t refinanced.
Keep it clean please folks
Thanks Patrick! i’ll take a look at the links. I agree with the stress test item – it could be amended. I’ll be curious to see how the parties differ on housing this year (and everything else).
So true, but I wish you’d have told us that earlier. Would have saved us all from finding out the hard way – as Matthew is doing now 🙂
Matthew, Barrister is just a jovial and harmless old man who worked too hard for too long and now partially regrets it. Luckily, though, the soft spring breeze entering through the broad windows in his palatial Rocklands home tends to dry his tears rather quickly. You should be nicer to him if you want a free lunch.
But that’s Soper’s shtik: nitpicking any detail on any subject.
And so the fed election promises begin…
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/05/14/andrew-scheer-mortgage-stress-test_a_23726021/
“Andrew Scheer Says He Wants To Scale Back Canada’s Mortgage Stress Test
The Conservative Party leader says he’s “absolutely committed” to reviewing the rule.”
fwiw, I think he’s right to review the stress test. Not to get rid of it, but make it more flexible. For example, if someone is getting a 10 year fixed @4.1%, they should be stress tested @4.1%, not a rate of 5.5% which they won’t face for at least 10 years (when their income is higher and 25% of house is paid off).
@ Introvert
Not really unless you’re only looking at West Side/West Van pricing.
A run of the mill Vic SFH is what, normally about half the price of a regular home in East or North Van ? (excluding the West End/West Van as those are more like ‘Uplands’ etc pricing).
Let’s say a SFH in Lynn Valley is ‘worth’ 30-50% more than a similar house in Gordon Head. If that SFH in Lynn Valley drops to 1 M or less, no way will that Gordon Head house hold it’s value.
It’s like the Comox Valley – there are certain houses selling there that are super overpriced compared to what the trend in Van is doing, so again it’s an interesting market to watch because it’s a delayed market – it was delayed on the way up and it’s delayed on the way down.
The thing to do would be to look back to 2012 and see what the price of an average SFH home is in Lynn Valley as an example, is and compare that to say Gordon Head. Take that ratio and compare it to where things are at now.
Let’s revisit this convo in a year and see where prices are at…
LOL to you suddenly caring about people again.
Lucic scoring 2 goals, and Lucic being washed up.
He’s not bragging(just like he isn’t bragging about being old, or retired), and he consistently says his wife is using his crystal ball currently, so self-professes that his opinion is just that.
My grad supervisor at UVic (a professor in EE dept) charged $800US/hr for his consultant work, that was 1988 😉 .
James Soper: I was wrong about what?
The point I was making is that people who charge big money are not necessarily right. Guys like Barrister have to brag on this site that they are a “lawyer” and they charge “$1180 an hour” (which is an outrage). Why is he telling us that? Is he trying to use his title to persuade readers that he knows more about real estate than the next guy? Because he’s a “lawyer” he knows what’s gonna happen with the Victoria real estate market? Does he want to convince you to side with him because he bilked desperate people caught up in highly emotional divorce cases for $1180 an hour. That’s $9440 a day. What a prince of a man. Why doesn’t he just make an argument on the merits and forget about his title or how much he charges?
I said ML scored 2 goals last year because I believed it to be true. When I looked it up, turns out he scored 6. Big fucking deal. My point is that he is miserable failure for a guy who gets $6 Mil a year whether he scored 2 goals or 6. Your petty response to this argument is weaker than a dead dog’s ass. Why don’t you respond to the point I was making that people should not use their titles or their salaries to try to win over other readers on this site? What do you say to this?
I hope I din’t misspell a word in this response beacuse that will be your next retort, is that wright?
@ Introvert
Mortimer’s great. You’re cherry picking. Maybe you’ll like these ones better:
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1128375510369591296
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1124481185055272961
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1128093092957917184
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1127346642699427840
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1125974495808720898
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1125953807765069827
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1125946217114918912
We know price drops started in the high end and it looks like they’re slowly trickling down into the lower rungs.
Some bears love this guy, Mortimer, whose favourite pastime is posting cases of sellers losing their shirt on Vancouver RE.
Scrolling through this dude’s Twitter feed is like watching luxury car fail compilations on YouTube: it makes you feel good inside but it doesn’t materially benefit you in any way.
Bears, let me know when this $3.5M house drops to $750K.
Thanks.
Top lawyers for the core public service seem to be making 220-240K. That’s only a handful. But if you look in the bracket between about 130K and 200K there are literally hundreds of lawyers on the public sector salary list.
Crown counsel and other lawyer designations is by far the most frequently occurring job title in the top 1000 or so of the public sector salary list. Many on par with or above Deputy Ministers and even more on par or above Assistant Deputies.
This is for the core public sector only. If you look at the health authorities for instance MDs and not lawyers are going to dominate the salary rankings. Then there are all the other public agencies…
First off, it’s 3 times more than what you said, so let me ask you why did you not report the actual goals he got?
You’ve got James Neal on a similar contract (5.75M) who got 7 goals this year, and all he’s paid to do is score goals. Ryan Kesler (6.875M) got 5 goals this year. So definitely not an NHL record. Toby Rieder on the same Oilers team this year had an even worse price per goal. Why did you not report all those guys?
My “argument” was that you were wrong. There’s no helping that argument. Look it up on your own like you should have in the first place.
Good point. There are also jobs that don’t require 100% of your mind during the day and you don’t have to stare at a screen (e.g, postman) vs something like air traffic controller where you can’t let your mind wander during the day.
Quality of life and dollars earned per (actual) hours worked are probably two of the most important job considerations.
IMO, some of the best jobs are ones that have a reasonable daily duration and where, when the shift or day ends, you can “leave your work at work.” This is not the case with so many professions.
BTW, I’ll just throw this out there. In terms of dollars earned per actual hours worked, landlording is tops by a vast margin.
It’s not guaranteed to be that way for everyone; your mileage may vary. But because our suite was in good shape to begin with and had been well-maintained, and because we’ve had quality tenants over the years, this has been our experience.
Pretty well anyone making 90k/year in the BCGEU has people under them.
They wouldn’t just be an analyst.
It has before. As Forest Gump would say: Shit happens.
Totoro: free for lunch next week? Penny Farthing in Oak Bay maybe?
Totoro: If you have not been divorced twice by age forty then you are not working hard enough. I think most people would be shocked to discover the value of a policeman’s pension or most government pensions for that matter.
(From the previous thread:)
It’s happening so slowly that the process will probably reverse before you ever get to your happy place.
No. But keep thinking that if it brings you joy.
Of course Victoria won’t outprice Vancouver, but Vancouver has such a long way to go before it even enters the ballpark of prices in Victoria.
Sometimes nations relinquish too much power from themselves, as is the case with the United States and firearm laws.
You can use YOY numbers to eliminate that. Then you’re comparing this April to last April. Victoria prices up 0.7% YOY.
That is a high rate. Salary vs. hours worked is a more telling metric.
Lawyers who work for big firms, which is not a choice I would make, generally have a much lower hourly wage than you’d expect. They are exempt from overtime laws and often work 60 hours a week or more, skipping lunch, with maybe two weeks of holiday a year if they are lucky and determined to take it. If they get a salary of 150k they are actually earning $50 an hour with no pension, despite a billing rate of 300 or more an hour.
A policy analyst in government making 90k/year and working 35 hours a week with four weeks of holidays is making 54 dollars per hour worked, plus pension, and at a lower marginal tax rate. Plus they had to spend less time in school to get the job and probably bought their house earlier as a result. The lawyer won’t catch up financially unless they stick it through to partner level which will mean sacrificing time with family and for anything else.
Teranet is a pretty seasonal actually. I believe it is due to the sales mix and what proportion of sales are high quality move in ready vs those with some defects. More higher quality properties sell in the spring market and more “leftovers” sell in the fall/winter. Teranet cannot adjust for that kind of subjective quality difference and so you get the index with upward pressure in the spring and downward pressure in the fall.
I am a little surprised that according to Teranet that prices are up a fraction YoY. More surprised that Vancouver is not down a lot more. Goes to show that I dont understand this market at all.
KS: Lawyer Smith after leading a very virtuous life was met at the Pearly gates by St Peter who told him that he had both good and bad news. The good news was that he was going to be let into heaven but the bad news was that he would have to spend 119 years in purgatory first. Poor Lawyer Smith cries out why a 119 years. St Peter replies, well it is one hour for every hour you billed.
Back to real estate.
Goes to show how lagging prices are as an indicator of the market. Vancouver is radically weaker than Victoria but little difference in terms of price declines yet
3179 Somerset Street is listed for $1,588,888. Hmm I wonder why all the eights in the price tag. Looking for a specific buyer demographic perhaps…? Only 1.6 million to have a back yard that could barely fit a trampoline. What a joke!
Rush4life,
Teranet is an index based on sales pairs of the same house. In theory it shouldn’t be affected by sales mix shifting to higher end houses. It is a 3 month rolling average, based on closing date, so lags the sales market a bit. They don’t break it down by price ranges. Methodology is here. https://housepriceindex.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Teranet-National-Bank-House-Price-Index-Methodology-Overview.pdf and a video here https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=PZzr1UUDDOU
(Teranet Price Index April vs March 2019)
Victoria up 0.2% MOM (up 0.7% YOY, down -3.4% from peak)
Vancouver down -0.4% MOM (down -2.8% YOY, -4.7% from peak)
Toronto up 0.3% MOM , (up 3.3% YOY, down -4.1% from peak)
Canada composite flat 0.0% MOM (up 1.2% YOY, down -1.8% from peak)
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf
Barrister, $110k all in for a first year at a big firm in Vancouver is about right. Smaller firms pay much less. My friend is a partner at a small/medium sized firm (3 partners and 8 lawyers in total) and they pay their first year associates $75k. No idea about Victoria but I would imagine it would be less than Vancouver. Senior partners at a large firm in Vancouver charge out only $700 an hour in comparison, still don’t understand this discrepancy compared to Toronto.
It’s funny you mentioned hourly rate, I have heard of lawyers charging clients for thinking time while they were on vacation :).
@Barrister
Any field of law. Business, real estate, employment etc. There are cheap lawyers who are only worth half their hourly and expensive lawyers who I would easily pay double.
Bad lawyers are the worst.
Leo do you know if Terranet has the info to break down type of sales. If we are apparently down 3.7% from peak presumably the majority of that would be in the higher end market and less in the lower end….
Terranet is out again. This month up 0.2% for Victoria – still down for our neighbours across the way. Here are the details:
May 14, 2019
April: Eighth consecutive month without a rise in the composite index
In April the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was flat from the previous month.[1] Apart from the 2009 recession period, it was the first April in 21 years of index history in which home prices showed no rise. And the run of months with no rise in the composite index has now extended to eight straight, for a cumulative decline of 1.7%. Component indexes were down on the month for six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed – Winnipeg (−2.0%), Halifax (−1.1%), Vancouver (−0.4%), Quebec City (−0.4%), Calgary (−0.3%) and Montreal (−0.2%). Indexes were up on the month for Ottawa-Gatineau (0.9%), Hamilton (0.8%), Toronto (0.3%), Victoria (0.2%) and Edmonton (0.1%).
The downtrend of prices has been especially marked in Calgary – 10 consecutive months with no rise, for a cumulative fall of 4.0% – and in Vancouver – nine consecutive months for a cumulative fall of 4.7%. The index for Winnipeg declined in six of the last seven months for a cumulative slide of 4.2%. The April advances in Victoria and Hamilton followed six-month runs of no rise, for cumulative declines of 3.4% and 1.7% respectively since September. The index for Edmonton is down 3.1% from last August despite advances in the last two months. The Ottawa-Gatineau index has declined 1.6% since December. On the other hand, Toronto, the largest housing market, has moderated the countrywide downtrend by retreating only 0.3% since August, thanks to a 2.4% rise in condo prices offsetting a 1.6% decline in other types of housing.
KS: I was definitely at the top of the billing scale but it took twenty five years to get there and I specialized exclusively in contested cases that would not settle for very high value clients with complex financial structures. The vast majority of matrimonial cases settle long before trial as well they should. Most matrimonial lawyers have very limited trial exposure and I was generally retained in cases where there was a strong probability of advancing to a trial.
In general most divorces should not be very expensive and in most cases involve managing your clients emotions far more than dealing with the legal issues. In addition to age, what finally did me in was an insanely bitter custody case. The billing rate was high but out of every sixty hours I worked only about half was actually billable the rest of the time went to supervising and training the young lawyers and articling students along with an increasing number of pro bono cases in my later years.
I am out of touch these days with what lawyers are charging. I know that a first year lawyer just out of the bar is making about 110,000 a year at a big firm in Vancouver. The only reason I know that is because one of my neighbours daughters was just hired. I remember thinking that the real estate lawyer who did the house transaction charged very little and provided excellent service. On an hourly basis the real estate agent made a lot more than the lawyer did. I felt bad enough about it that I dropped off a couple of nice bottles of California wine to him later.
$1180 am hour, that would be select few senior partner level lawyers at a brand name national/international law firm in Toronto (Macarthy, Blakes, BLG, Faskens etc.). That is on the corporate/securities side, no idea what criminal or family lawyers charge but I imagine it is typically less.