Immigration and Home Ownership
Today I was reading an article on the CBC covering a new StatsCan report on the growth of wealth in immigrant families compared to that of Canadian-born families. It’s an interesting piece and talks about how immigrant Canadian families that have been here for more than 20 years (that includes yours truly) have greater wealth than the families of born Canadians. Immigrant families’ wealth is more weighted towards real estate than financial or pension assets and the excellent recent performance of real estate has certainly contributed to the fact that their wealth has grown more rapidly. Debt to income ratios also reflected this greater reliance on real estate as a wealth builder, coming in substantially higher for immigrant families due to larger mortgages.
However the article also published a chart that showed how home ownership rates for recently immigrated families increased from 31.2% in 1999 to 78.7% in 2016. At first I was shocked by this chart because I thought they were saying that more recent immigrants were much more likely to own a home than those that came 20 years ago. This set off my data BS detector (in error as it turned out, since the chart is correct) and I looked into the StatsCan report itself to see if the data backed up this chart.
Before we get into that though, here a bit of a primer on the level of immigration currently in Canada.
We know that immigration is currently at a high point in Canada and that constitutes a key driver of the economy and by extension the real estate market.
2019 target is 330,000
Those new residents tended to settle in the more economically prosperous provinces, but on a new arrivals per capita basis you may be surprised that BC is in third place behind the prairie provinces and Ontario.
If we drill down to the city, it’s also no great surprise where those new residents are ending up (except for perhaps Kelowna beating us out).
So back to home ownership rate amongst immigrant families. Did it really more than double in 20 years? Sort of, but that chart is not showing what you might expect. The CBC article reprinted a figure (9) from the original report, where it has the more precise caption of “Family-level synthetic cohort analyses of homeownership over time for Canadian-by-birth families and immigrant families, both with major income recipients aged 25 to 44 in 1999” which makes clear it is tracking the same families over time, and not comparing different immigrant families based on what year they immigrated.
In other words, after about 20 years in Canada, immigrant families are more likely to own their own house than families born in Canada.
If we look at the ownership rates over time, we see the other half of the picture.
One potential change I noticed here is the home ownership rate for more recent immigrants, which did jump from about 30% in 1999 to 40% in 2005 but has stayed steady since then.
However as for the preference for home ownership amongst immigrant families, what’s clear from this chart is that it is not at all new. Even back in 1984, families that had come to Canada over 20 years ago owned their own home at a substantially higher rate (81%) than Canadian born families (73%). Nihil novi sub sole.
@Grace
I wouldn’t have guessed that from the look of the neighbourhood – it reminds me of parts of Kits – I guess that’s the allure for the criminally inclined. Thanks for the tip!
For Montyb.. We lived in the Old Orchard area years go ( on Johnson). Lots of break ins in the area. Didn’t happen to us but it did to the people we sold to. Maybe things have improved but we were always worried about crime. Neighbours woke up to two men in their house
Our other neighbours were broken into in broad daylight and our six year old daughter was playing in our yard at the time. Enough to make us happy to move!
Prelim monday numbers since they seem to be a bit late this morning: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2019/04/22/april-21-market-update/
Stand corrected. Thanks.
Caveat: Stop confusing the issue with facts.
Oh, puh-leeze!
Why buy a horse when you can get a pink unicorn for just a few dollars more?
There are currently zero 2 BR plus houses in North Vancouver listed at under 750 K. There are 30 2 BR plus houses in Courtenay under 500 K and 55 houses if you throw in Comox and Cumberland.
The cheapest house in North Vancouver is asking 999,000 and here is the listing:
Builders and investors alert: THE LOWEST-PRICED DETACHED HOME on the North Shore! Great redevelopment opportunity! Build a dream home on a large 4,200 SF lot (35′ x 120′) just 1/2 block to Upper Lynn Elementary School! The home is livable, but needs TLC. Take action, while this unique opportunity lasts. Contact your agent now for more information!
The Comox Valley has gotten expensive but a cool million will buy you an awesome house there, not a “development opportunity” on a “large” 4200 sq ft lot.
As immigrants to the Comox Valley this post and comments have been really enlightening.
Our household income is just under $100,000, yet we’re struggling to buy a SFH – mortgage approval and deposit put us at about $450 – 460,,000 – which is what a new townhome (including GST) goes for.
$500,000+ is ballpark for a 1980’s SFH, which will likely need $$$ to modernise.
We’re certainly making more than the local median household income, so unless you’ve got a substantial down payment it’s a tough market to get into.
Having been here three months, Cumberland and Comox are both really appealing. The old Orchard area of Courtenay is nice. The rest of the town is a bit bland.
We’re hoping to see prices drop a good amount, whilst increasing incomes and down payment. In a way I’m happy to be priced out for now, if it results in a better purchase long term.
Well jeez Guelph sounds like a healthy market. Can anyone figure out how much incomes in that area rose during the same period? 93%?
Spin-off effects. Also, one thing RE has is a lot of momentum – albeit slow like an ocean cruiseliner. This has been visually demonstrated on this site more than once. It’s not a surprise that the provinces with the bubbliest RE would record the strongest economic gains.
But all you have to do is take a look at the composition of those gains (ie where in the economy is the growth occurring) and that will give you a pretty decent indication of what’s going on. Even if you took a position where you ignore this reality, the fact remains that most of the jobs available are woefully under-prepared to support the current market pricing. Vancouver is a perfect case in point – look at the job metrics, yet look at the housing market. The problem isn’t jobs (at the moment), the problem is the house prices are too high.
This is where I will take the opportunity to agree with our Macleans-hating friend Michael, with the flying cars and trucks. He said this:
If you’re not going to watch financial metrics, then as a cheap but more interesting substitute, just watch VanRE. The important thing there is sentiment. Once the sentiment truly and finally sours over there (ie panic), the mood for RE here isn’t going to remain jubilant. Construction will continue to slow down, arrears rates will climb, unemployment numbers will climb, so on and so forth. No magic in this – we’ve seen this storybook countless times and this market is no different.
BC appears to be in for a challenging time in the next few years, primarily caused by over-dependence on RE. All of it is poised to experience a prolonged downturn, with Vancouver and Victoria probably seeing the most significant market adjustments. Alas, this all comes at a time when we’ve never been so financially unprepared for any of it.
@ Ford Prefect
Re: Comox Valley
I think the CV is really overpriced right now personally. A few years back it was a great deal, hence the influx from the lower mainland. But now if you can find a deal in North Van at $750k for a single family home with a yard that needs a little tlc, why would you pay $500-700k for something similar in Comox? It just doesn’t make sense at a certain price point. It’s gonna be another interesting market to watch over the next while. I don’t see it holding up well if Van continues on it’s current trajectory.
Except when it isn’t. Almost all housing downturns start at a time of low unemployment. The US housing market peaked in early 2006, but unemployment kept falling until the end of the year.
More obviously, metro Vancouver unemployment is at a decades-long low, yet the housing market is clearly in trouble.
In fact the Guelph housing market has been on fire for the last 9 years. Prices Up 93% over a time (2010-2019) when Victoria rose 43%. Close to the same rise as Toronto (103%).
And Guelph rose 6.6% over the last year, a higher rise than any of the 11 cities in teranet index including Toronto (3.3%). Low unemployment is bullish for housing.
http://creastats.crea.ca/guel/
“The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price for Guelph and District was $537,700, up 6.6% in March 2019 compared to March 2018.”
http://creastats.crea.ca/guel/images/guel_chart05_xhi-res.png
Guelph prices Jan 2010 $280k
Guelph prices March 2019 $538k
Guelph Up 93% in 9 years.
Victoria (teranet) up 43% over the same period.
Toronto up 103%
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf
I mean, look at the Guelph housing market… it’s on fire. (it’s not, even with proximity to Toronto, it still didn’t have massive increases like Toronto did).
Patrick: Thank you for posting those numbers since they are very interesting.
Patriotz: I am not sure that the owner took a bath as much as a light shower. I think we might all agree that the days of crazy bidding wars and massive prices increases seem to be behind us.
I think we might need to see a lot more inventory before any real price drops. Also I am curious whether the end of the spring market in May will trigger price drops as people start to enter the valley of crushed dreams. I suspect that we will not see a lot of movement in the under a million market but the over 1.5 may start a move down. But my predictions are wrong much more often than not.
StatsCan has some good news for Greater Victoria economy, which bodes well for the housing market. Our unemployment rate in March 2019 fell to the lowest in B.C. by a wide margin, and the second lowest of any city in Canada (after Guelph). With our Victoria unemployment rate falling to 2.8%, and Canada’s rate of 5.8%, that means 11,000 people (5k households, 3% of our population) could move to Victoria tomorrow, and without creating any new jobs we’d still have an average unemployment rate for Canada (5.8%). I’d expect the rental vacancy rate to stay tight with job numbers like this, as people move to where the jobs (and the cherry blossoms) are.
https://www.vicnews.com/news/greater-victoria-unemployment-rate-falls-to-second-lowest-in-canada/ (apr 15, 2019)
“Greater Victoria unemployment rate falls to second lowest in Canada
Victoria unemployment rate reaches 2.8 per cent in March
Among Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) in British Columbia, Kelowna ranks second behind Victoria with an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent, followed by Vancouver with a rate of 4.9 per cent. Abbotsford-Mission ranks fourth with 6.3 per cent.”
==—-===
Fwiw, given that the USA has lower unemployment (4.1%) than Canada (5.8%), it is also impressive that including all of the top 400 cities in the USA, and the 50 regions of Canada, Victoria unemployment rate of 2.8% ranks 21st best/450 North American cities. We are also # 2 in North American for lowest unemployment of any coastal city, beat out only by Honolulu, HI (2.5%)
Statscan: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410029401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.5&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.2
USA: https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm
If it matters so much to you find out yourself. I think what matters to everyone else is that the owner took a bath, regardless.
Does every Duckburg need its own university now? I can remember when the whole province had three. North Island College, which is headquartered in Courtenay, already offers some degree programs. Plenty more at Vancouver Island University (which I remember as Malaspina College) down the road.
Really this expansion of “universities” just means that jobs that used to be open to 2 year college graduates, or even high school graduates, now require 4 years at “university” and a corresponding amount of student loan debt.
For something a little different, I recommend the Farmer’s
Daughter Fromagerie, also in Sidney. Not meal service, but cheese and charcuterie, fondue, and nice wine flight selection. Run by a very knowledgeable young couple.
Caveat:
Thanks for the list; I will add it to our summer get aways.
One of our favourites is the Bistro Swiss in Sidney, great food and very reasonable prices. The house wine is very drinkable and not at all expensive.
Don’t eat out a lot because it is a pain with kids or expensive to hire sitters but I would submit:
Ford thanks for the view from the CV. I keep an eye on listings in that area as my wife and I are considering a move up island. Listing prices still seem really high but friends in the valley tell me that things are sitting a lot longer now.
I agree on the sprawl, but still there are decent areas not too far from “downtown” Comox that are very walkable. Downtown Courtenay is ripe for gentrification in my opinion.
Thanks for the list Vic Noobie: I have put them on our list to try. A bit of adveture is always a good thing.
Barrister:
Here are some good restaurants in Victoria that my wife and I like to go to:
Recent sales in Gordon Head, not including ones I posted last time and not cherry-picked (feel free to point out any I may have missed):
4437 Houlihan Crt
Sold: $1,300,000 ($156K above assessment)
4007 Bow Rd
Sold: $931,000 (same as assessment)
4420 Torquay Dr
Sold: $818,000 ($42K below assessment)
1803 Fairhurst Ave
Sold: $854,000 ($13K above assessment)
4326 Gordon Head Rd
Sold: $1,250,000 ($148K above assessment)
1761 Feltham Rd
Sold: $1,020,000 (same as assessment)
The implication being that an identical or similar fate will befall Victoria because proximity.
Well, good luck with that.
I’m sure they’re hoping that across the Georgia Strait. VanRE is on course to record another ~30 year low in sales for April…
Beautiful day today, perhaps this is what is needed to encourage buyers.
If we could work our jobs (govn’t / edu) in the Comox Valley region we’d move in a heartbeat. A house for half the cost, ski hill, huge clean lake and ocean all within a short radius and more and more flight options out of their airport. I don’t know why the valley doesn’t have more government (both provincial and federal) offices out of locations like that, many jobs are online / on the phone and have no reason to be in the capital. And why doesn’t the valley have a University? It’d be such an attractive place to go to school.
“Replying to Ford Prefect#58745
July 2018 to Feb 2019 is eight months (and fewer than eight if not inclusive) not sixteen months. Enough said.”
Yes, I miss read the dates.
But you did not answer my question:
Was the house Vacant, Owner Occupied or a Rental?
TBH, sounds like someone trying to boost the value of his/her ramshackle house in Cumberland…
Personally, I’ll take Courtenay over Cumberland any day, even though I agree that the mall area isn’t charming.
Yup happy Easter weekend everyone. We are up island for the weekend.
I wonder if the Parksville/Qualicum area picked up since they were outside the spec tax. Grace did you hear anything about that when you sold?
Wishing everyone a happy Easter weekend. Hopefully the sun will shine for a few days and put a sparkle in everyone;s day.
Since the housing market has turned into boring mode I was wondering if anyone can give me their favorite restaurant recommendations in and around Victoria.
Reply to YVR:
July 2018 to Feb 2019 is eight months (and fewer than eight if not inclusive) not sixteen months. Enough said.
Replying to
Ford Prefect#58743
3436 Stoneridge Ave., located in “The Ridge”, Courtenay
Assessed: $695k
Listed for $759k
Sold in July 2018 for $750k
Bought in Feb 2019 for $759k
“Despite the seller finding a pilgrim who paid full price the vendors lost around $30,000 after PTT and commission. It is doubtful that the seller could have obtained a price of $790 in order to avoid any loss.”
Was this house sitting vacant or was the seller and family living in it?
I would guess to live in a similar house the rent would be at lease $2,000 a month, times 16 months is $32,000. Most everyone needs to pay to live somewhere. So, If the seller was living in the house its sounds to me like the seller came out ahead, not to mention they would of paid down some of their mortgage.
If the house was an investment, and was tenant occupied all the fees you mention would be a right off, so in this situation the seller would have only lost money if the house was sitting vacant!
3436 Stoneridge Ave., located in “The Ridge”, Courtenay
Assessed: $695k
Listed for $759k
Sold in July 2018 for $750k
Bought in Feb 2019 for $759k
Despite the seller finding a pilgrim who paid full price the vendors lost around $30,000 after PTT and commission. It is doubtful that the seller could have obtained a price of $790 in order to avoid any loss. Such a loss here until recently has been almost unheard of. Prices seem to have peaked. For example a new featured listing of Dean “live your dream” Thompson for $1.3 million is hardly new. Last summer it was on for $1.5 million, came off in October and was put back up this March. So a 13% or $200k reduction.
I have been tracking sales listed in the twice monthly local real estate handouts. What is becoming clear is the very low number of recent sales, especially in the $500k and up category ($750k here is a very high price where median family income is around $50k). In the past two weeks I only found 6 new sales. The rest shown were very old sales, some as old as 6 months ago and already in my database. It will be interesting to see the April sales figures.
One thing that has been very interesting in looking at real estate has been the shift in demographics and the influence on real estate prices. The Comox Valley has three incorporated municipalities, Comox, Courtenay and Cumberland plus rural areas such as Royston, Merville etc. In 1972 Jim Bolen (yes that Jim, founder of Greenpeace) ran against long time Courtenay mayor and local old boy Bill Moore. The issue was whether Courtenay should adopt the sprawl model or maintain its community integrity. The outcome of that election is obvious to anyone coming to Courtenay today – Courtenay went from small town to mall town. Comox followed suit but more along the sprawl model – not many malls.
Cumberland being the town best known as “Dodge” was not a place to live, at least for respectable folk, and for years not much happened. But now that small town with a walk score of around 70, has a very lively street life , full of young people – similar to what Jane Jacobs envisioned. Compare that to The Ridge, a typical Courtenay “development node” (the new council’s name for urban sprawl) with a walk score of between 0 and 3 and no sign of any life. If fuel prices remain as high as they are now or rise even more the walk score effect will only be amplified.
So what has changed for real estate? Well think East Vancouver becoming more expensive and desirable than West Vancouver. Similar houses in Cumberland now sell at a premium to those in either Courtenay or Comox. Quite amazing.
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/indicators_explained.jsp
I live in a “luxury” home and still have an oil fired boiler for radiant heat. It would be very costly to bring a natural gas line in due to terrain ( approx. $10,000 ) plus new boiler.
My question is how detrimental is oil to prospective buyers of higher end homes if I was planning on selling, and if I did eventually switch to natural gas do you think I would recoup my costs?
First of all, what do they mean by a “house”? Second, Germany has an ownership rate of only around 50%, which means that a higher income cohort owns compared to Canada. But the “income” in price/income is everyone. I will refer you back to the Economist figures (which I humbly trust better than your source) which indicate that in every respect affordability in Germany has not deteriorated like it has here.
https://infographics.economist.com/2017/HPI/index.html
That leads me to suspect the rankings right there. Oz is definitely more expensive than Canada. All its big cities are in the same league as Vancouver or Toronto. It has no moderately priced big cities like Edmonton, Ottawa, or Montreal.
It depends how you are measuring “Lust to own a detached home.” If you are measuring it by house price to income ratio, none of the countries in your list even make it in the top 70 (out of 93!) most expensive countries for house prices based on price/income. For example, the USA is the second cheapest country in the world to buy (price/income) only behind Saudi Arabia. Canada is 13th cheapest (out of 93). Australia even cheaper (12/93), and New Zealand (17th cheapest/93)
If the reference to “lack of cultural preference toward home ownership” is referring to Germany, it should be noted that German house prices measured by price/income are 18% higher than Canada.
All data is from this source:
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp
“lack of cultural preference toward home ownership”
It is interesting to note that the uncontrolled lust to own a detached home is pretty much limited to the UK and it’s former colonies of the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Speak to citizens of countries like Germany and ask them when they plan to buy their first home and you will generally get a blank stare.
Hiding in that observation somewhere is a PhD dissertation for someone more motivated than me.
If you’re referring to Victoria housing prices, time will tell if it’s a bubble or not. I happen to think it’s not a bubble, and that population growth has been a bullish demand factor and will continue to be so. But if you think it’s a bubble, feel free to keep waiting for it to burst. How long have you waited so far?
But prices did not increase along with population over that period. Spain in particular had a huge runup and crash post-2000. That’s the point – the bubbles we’ve seen all over the world since 2000 aren’t the result of population growth.
Spain pop. rose 18% and Holland population rose last 13% over the last 25 years, unlike Germany which stayed flat (1% rise last 25 years) .
There aren’t restrictions on mortgages like you have described in Germany. They have lower mortgage rates than us, and interest only options for some people. https://liveworkgermany.com/2017/09/mortgages-in-germany-an-introductory-guide/
For example, if you’re looking for a 5 year fixed mortgage at 1.16%, or a 30 year fixed at 2.31%, try Germany https://hypofriend.de/en/mortgage-rates
Agreed. Though if Canada’s population stayed the same for 25 years instead of rising 30% like it has, we likely wouldn’t have seen such a huge house price rise here. Of course population rise doesn’t guarantee perpetual house price rises, but it is an important factor in supply/demand,
They also have a lot to do with Germany’s severe restrictions on mortgage lending, lack of cultural preference toward home ownership, and strong legal protection for renters.
There are other European countries with similar demographics that have seen serious bubbles recently, such as Holland and Spain.
The population of the US continued to rise though the great bust of a decade ago. Yes in the long run a rising population is more supportive of RE prices than a flat population, but don’t get the impression that a rising population is going to stop RE prices from falling at any given point. It never has.
Germany’s low house prices are related to demographics. Germany’s population has been flat for at least 25 years. It was 81 million in 1995 and is 82 million today. (2019). The migrant influx is recent, and if they get some population growth from it, RE prices may rise like the other countries on the list with growing populations. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/germany-population/
Canada’s rising population is bullish for RE.
Not Germany. Real house prices have been remarkably flat since 1970. Price/rent and price/income have been more volatile but are lower today than in the 1970’s.
https://infographics.economist.com/2017/HPI/index.html
What’s the current ownership rate for locals in the same cities who’ve been adults for at least 20 years? That’s the group you should be comparing to.
Looks like record highs for TSX this week.
Just for fun, here’s Maclean’s track record again for marking Vic bottoms.
And another one…
“Downtown Vancouver condo… $100,000 loss (+ expenses)
502 1050 SMITHE STREET, Vancouver
Bought 2017 $930,000
Just sold for $830,000
2018 Assessed: $884,000
2017 Assessed: $858,000”
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1118711838768635904
Another via twitter…
“Another condo loss in the suburbs… Port Moody this time..
2801 – 660 Nootka Way, Port Moody
Bought 2017 $649,000
Just sold for $632,500
2018 Assessed: $694,000
2017 Assessed: $660,000”
Still overpriced, but at least the crazy train has stopped and things are reversing. The next question I have is, how long till it hits the island…
It’s interesting to look at the other countries and their levels of immigration in relation to Canada. As we know, Canada is in the middle of adding 1% of its population every year. By contrast as a percentage of total population:
*European numbers are “migrants”, so it’s not a true apples/apples comparison with the other countries which are quoted in official immigrant numbers. However the European countries, and the US, are more impacted by irregular migrants than Canada/Australia/New Zealand, so the numbers may be a good enough comparison as true migration numbers.
Of note, all of these countries are experiencing historically high RE prices and generally high housing costs but it’d be silly to make a causal connection between immigration levels and housing costs (especially with such other large factors such as the record low interest rates which have seriously influenced all asset classes). With that said, all these people need to live somewhere.
Sources
Supplementary Information 2019-2021 Immigration Levels Plan
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html
US Immigration
https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2017/table1
Australia Immigration
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/MigrationFlows
New Zealand Immigration
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/immigration-and-tourism/immigration/migration-research-and-evaluation/migration-trends-report/
EU Immigration
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics
Home ownership rates in the biggest cities of Canada (Toronto , Vancouver, Montreal) are all below the Canada average. Home ownership rates are much higher outside the big cities. This makes it even more impressive that immigrants have managed to obtain such a high rate of home ownership (80% after 20 years, higher than home-grown age 45-64), because the immigrants have done it largely inside the biggest cities where home ownership rates for Canadians in general is less than the national average. And prices are highest to buy in. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/171025/cg-c003-png-eng.htm
@ Barrister,
“those numbers seem a little strange to me”
Well, as you know, there are lies, damned lies and statistics, and the sources of the World Wealth Review stats sound kind of vague and leaving considerable room, perhaps, for interpretation.
Goodacre Lake, Beacon Hill Park. 1910. Photographer is standing roughly on Douglas St, facing east. In the water foreground today, there is a log which the turtles like to sit on when it’s sunny.
CS those numbers seem a little strange to me since the Quebec program alone accounted for 1900 in 2018. The Nova Scotia investor program accounted for a further 1400. Your numbers might be right but I have found that often the official immigration numbers leave out a lot of the various classes such as family class applications such as spouses from their count or other investor programs. Not saying you are wrong but there is a real lack of transparency in the federal numbers that I have looked at.
Canada, apparently, ranks third, after Australia and the US, in attracting millionaire immigrants, with a net inflow in 2018 of 4000. That does not seem enough to affect national house prices much, whereas Liberal plans for 350,000 immigrants a year will generate demand for something like 120,000 housing units equal to half the total of newly constructed units, which must surely have a huge impact on prices.
For well over 20 years immigrants have overwhelmingly settled in Canada’s big cities. They should be compared against native born big city households, not Canadians as a whole. It’s pretty clear that big city households have higher average net worth than those in the rest of the country due to RE appreciation alone.
Is “info”/”Victoria RE Update” still going strong on greater fool? Last time I checked about a year ago she was still posting there.
Gwac, don’t mention the blogs history and the word “info” in the same sentence. Could cause ascii flashbacks.
What exactly are you arguing?
Absolutely!
Cool. The big takeaway for me in the immigration to BC numbers, is that it’s all about Vancouver. It looks like over 80% go to Vancouver, and the rest sprinkle across the province. That’s a little surprising, given the highest RE prices in Vancouver. But it sure provides a source of new growth and buyers for Vancouver.
Like I said, no disrespect intended. I have a notoriously short attention span, though. I’ve learned to embrace it.
Barrister,
There are 35K immigrants to Vancouver each year (15k households). If a full half of the 2,000 Quebec investor program people come to Vancouver, that’s only 6% of the immigrants to Vancouver coming from that Quebec program. Still seems a small number to move the needle to me, but if you have reason to believe that the Quebec Investor program causes a chain reaction that moves the needle in Victoria despite them not moving here – who knows, you may be right!
“No disrespect to long-time commenters, but if I’m still here in 10 years, someone, anyone, please shoot me.”
I don’t understand why you feel this way. This is a cool little online community. People are passionate but generally quite respectful, anonymity cloaks not withstanding. I think you’ve found your tribe and you should embrace it 🙂
A lot of people have been here 10 years and that says a lot about the quality of the info…and the blog…
No disrespect to long-time commenters, but if I’m still here in 10 years, someone, anyone, please shoot me.
Yup this is the same data I used to produce the chart in the article.
Patrick: I believe that number is 2000 families
and not total persons. As we all well know the issue is not the people that move to Victoria but the number that move to Vancouver causing the Vancouver refugees to flow here with full pockets. But you are well aware of that so I think you are being a little ingenuous.
Victoria has more immigrants per 1K pop than Nanaimo or PG. And 5X as many overall than either of them.
Here are the numbers of immigrants for the biggest BC cities in 2018, according to Immigration Canada that tracks this monthly.
Vancouver 35,300 , immigrants per 1k= 14
Victoria 2,080 , immigrants per 1k= 6
Abbotsford – Mission 1,335 , immigrants per 1k= 9
Kelowna 850 , immigrants per 1k= 7
Nanaimo 435 , immigrants per 1k= 5
Kamloops 370 , immigrants per 1k= 4
Prince George 355 , immigrants per 1k= 5
Source IRCC Canada https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda and http://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_PRadmiss_0003_E.xls
🙂
Marko what are these places worth now.
Post sep 2011. Bear mountain got killed last housing market correction. Condos got battered big time.
“Current listings looking at huge losses
Unit List price Previous sale price Date
105 – 1400 Lynburne $258,000 $334,900 + GST Nov 2008
509 – 1400 Lynburne $319,900 $355,000 + HST August 2010
305 – 1325 Bear Mountain Pkwy $298,000 $350,000 June 2008
417 – 1325 Bear Mountain Pkwy $311,000 (court ordered) $479,000 + GST June 2007
2011 sales and previous purchase prices
Unit 2011 Sale price & date Previous sale price & year
416 – 1325 Bear Mountain Pkwy $312,800 (Sept) $517,924 + GST (2007)
302 – 1375 Bear Mountain Pkwy $365,000 (Sept) $319,047 + GST (2009)
147 – 1335 Bear Mountain Pkwy $412,000 (Aug) $415,000 + GST (2010)
414 – 1335 Bear Mountain Pkwy $345,000 (Aug) $365,000 (2009)
144 -1335 Bear Mountain Pkwy $220,000 (July) $262,000 (2010)
617 – 1400 Lynburne $307,500 (July) $335,000 + GST (2009)”
James Soper
Wonder what happens if you follow-up on those PRs. A friend who was an international student ended up in PG. I met him at UVic a short time later…
PG and Kamloops are quite nice if you can deal with seasons. Cost of living beats the island, great outdoor opportunities etc. I’m not a huge fan of late fall or early spring in either, but winter is nice and sunny with skiing available much closer (plus you’ll have the money to spend on luxuries like skiing).
I find Nanaimo a bit of a surprising. I’ve lived on the island most of my life and I don’t think I’d ever choose to live in Nanaimo especially now with how expensive it has gotten. I’d go with Courtenay/Comox over Nanaimo. Nice new hospital, short drive to Mt Washington, it’s not Nanaimo..
Just stirring the pot Leo….That’s all. 🙂
Didn’t realized you had been on here 10 years also.
Believe you about what?
Going through some old posts. Even back than Leo did not believe me… 7 years later and the same topics.
Leo S said…
There needs to be an economic events to sends prices lower.
You may have noticed the economic events happening in the past few years, most recently this July when 30 year mortgages were discontinued. Given that the real estate market is driven by credit availability, any restriction of credit is an important event.
September 25, 2012 at 2:42 PM
Introvert going through your 2008-2010 post you were pretty right on about the future so was Marko. Fun to see what people where posting. Not much has changed.
Nope.
While Victoria may not see significant numbers of immigrant investors in the real estate market, Vancouver certainly does. Victoria does see a significant number of Vancouverites who sold their home to a buyer using foreign-sourced capital. Is it still foreign capital if it takes a detour through a Vancouverites bank account, before being used to buy Victoria real estate? And is it still money laundering, if only from an ethical standpoint, if the funds were acquired illegally?
The Quebec investor program accepts 2000 people per year. Likely 1,000 households. Given that greater Victoria is one percent of Canada’s population, that would imply that about 10 households would arrive in Victoria as a result of that Quebec investor program per year. That would represent about 1% of all immigrants that come to Victoria I would assume that most of the Quebec investor program applicants would purchase a home within the first five years in Canada. There are other investor programs though not as big as Quebec.
This might be a factor in luxury house sales, but I don’t think 10 households is enough to move the needle of median house prices in Victoria.
What would be interesting and what the stats dont show is how many immigrants buy a house within the first year of arriving. And of those first year purchases how many houses are bought for over a million.
What we do know is that all of the immigrants through the Quebec investor program have a net worth of over a million and often a lot more.
The question is what occurs to the housing market if there is a concentration of wealthy immigrants moving to a select few cities. This is especially true if there is an influx over a few short years.
What is interesting is how this is occurring. Not all immigrants are coming to Canada with a spare million in their pockets to start procuring real estate. I have a personal connection to one family of recent immigrants who arrived with three children and enough money to rent a small townhouse. Within 5 years they and their three children all owned a house in Richmond. However they were all funded by relatives from their old country. So with a few relatives with deep pockets who wanted to get their money out and into a different housing market it worked perfectly. They got the benefit of the first time buyer deal too!
But leoS graphs show that there is nothing new about this (immigrants buying houses within 20 years), and it has been true for immigrants as far back as 1984. Are you suggesting that Canada’s immigrants have always (since the 1980s) been wealthy to start with, and are discounting the idea that they just work hard and value house ownership? I know lots of immigrants, and the vast majority didn’t arrive with much. Moreover, the CBC graph shows that most immigrants don’t buy houses right away, they work up to it over 20 years. So that indicates to me that they aren’t wealthy to start with, and that they work for it.
Hopefully millennials can come up with a better excuse than 80% of immigrants are rich so that’s why immigrants can buy houses, and millennials can’t.
“We see from LeoS charts that 80% of new immigrants will be home owners (with mortgages) after 20 years, but are told by many here that this isn’t possible for our home-grown millennials. Why is that?”
A strong preference for immigrants with wealth could cause this.
Thanks Leo!
If your signing up for “nothing new under the sun” referring to stable and high home ownership rates in Canada for young and old groups , go ahead. But then don’t tell us about a home ownership crisis amongst millennials being unable to fulfill home ownership dreams.
We see from LeoS charts that 80% of new immigrants will be home owners (with mortgages) after 20 years, but are told by many here that this isn’t possible for our home-grown millennials. Why is that?
@guest_58686 I have clarified the article that my initial interpretation was wrong. I interpreted the wording of “those families” in the CBC caption as referring to “recently immigrated families” and not “those same families” which is what they meant.
LeoS, IMO the CBC chart (“comparing home ownership rates”) clearly states they are talking about the same cohort of immigrants over time, so there’s no reason to call out CBC on that graph. You did say at first you were shocked at that graph, but if the graph is correct, why not follow it up with, a clarification that that was only “until I realized that I was reading it wrong, and CBC chart was correct” . For example, I am unclear as to your position, was your “BS detector” proved to be right or wrong about that CBC chart?
Yes my first reaction was surprise and skepticism at the chart, but that turned out to be because I had misinterpreted it. Blame my reading comprehension.
Updated article to clarify that.
If I had to sum up my entire thesis about the housing market (and try to sound smart in the process), that would be it. 🙂
Huh? What was so suspicious about the CBC headline, or wrong in the main point of the CBC article? The CBC article headline was this…
“Immigrant families more likely to own home than add to pension plan, StatsCan says”
CBC then backs it up with stats showing that immigrants invest more in real estate than in non RE (RSP, savings), (more so than Canadian born) and they back it up with stats. I don’t see where Leo challenges this, which was the subject of the article.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/immigrants-wealth-statistics-canada-1.5100205
“On average, 69 per cent of the wealth increase for immigrant families can be traced to gains in the amount of equity that they have in their homes. That compares to 39 per cent for native-born Canadians.
On the flip side, one third of the wealth gain for Canadian-born families is because of increases in the value of pension plan assets. For immigrant families, that share is just 17 per cent.”
My take…There were 2,080 immigrants to Greater Victoria in 2018,and there will be more in 2019, and the CBC article says that those arrivals will be more interested in (ultimately) buying RE than typical Canadians, and after 20 years about 80% will have bought homes. Great!
Thanks for the more critical examination of a rather suspicious headline, Leo. Nothing new under the Sun, indeed.
I like how we’re basically the same as Naniamo and PG.
Introvert, any comments?
Video was fun but is the agency name really “hooker”?
off topic I know but thought this article about the madness of aussie real estate would amuse: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/17/strictly-living-room-breathtakingly-horrific-padstow-real-estate-ad-goes-viral