June: Overall conditions improve, but not for condos
June stats are in, and headline sales were unremarkable (719 sales, down 5.5% from last year), condo sales were terrible (down 27% from last year!) and even single family sales were down 3.5% from last June. But overall conditions actually improved noticeably from the last couple months due to the relative strength of the single family market.
Condo sales are down in the dumps, but single family has recovered from it’s little slump. Still very slow, but better than they’ve been since mid last year.
I wouldn’t want to overstate the improvement since overall sales are still very slow, but the single family market remains stable while condos are weak.
New lists also remain strong on a seasonally adjusted basis. Higher than we’ve seen them in 15 years.
Though inventory ticked up a little to 4054 units from May’s 4029, that is actually less of an increase than we would normally expect from May to June. That means a small drop in the seasonally adjusted levels. We’ve seen a number of these reversals in the past few years, so I wouldn’t read too much into this until we see it continue for a number of months.
Market conditions overall improved from where we’ve been the last couple months, but as already mentioned, this is the single family market hiding substantial weakness in condos.
Combining the two measures show a decent jump from May, now back to right in the middle of balanced market territory.
Median pricing though was pretty weak for both single family and detached in June. Detached at $1.25M is the lowest we’ve seen since December 2024, and condos at $525k came in lower than they’ve been since October 2024. Monthly medians regularly vary substantially though, and going by market conditions I’d be more concerned about the condo weakness persisting than the single family.
Note this chart is 3 month moving average of medians.
It’s interesting that the industry has been building very few condos in the past 5 years in favour of rentals, but that did almost nothing to strengthen the condo market during this downturn. The reality is that there is a strong connection between the condo market and the rental market. When we weren’t building purpose-built rentals, investors bought up condos and turned them into rentals. Now that we are and have a healthy vacancy rate for the first time in 30 years, investor demand has largely evaporated and what’s left are owner occupiers. Problem is, those owner-occupiers are seeing reducing pricing on townhouses, the new infill multiplexes, and single family homes and are wondering if they can wait and stretch right into that instead of panicking into a condo out of FOMO.
Interesting times, but it’s a good time to be a house hunter.
Sounds like a SFH on a nice big lot in a diserable neighborhood is still the best option for a “home” lol
and then when I move into a fourplex (actually a 5-plex) unit rent my condo to a family of four with two pitpulls (no bylaw breed restrictions, yet) and be like I know you guys didn’t like my 30 to 90 day guests but now you can establish a sense of community with my long term tenants 🙂 Don’t worry, “Diesel” is super friendly in the elevator.
Crazy thing too is one of the core arguments from people in my building is allowing 30 to 90 days rentals lowers our market value while for 7 years now we haven’t been able to vote through EV infrastructure as the majority of owners in building believe EVs are a fad that will pass, while upwards of 30% of my condo buyers reaching out to me now are looking for EV ready parking stalls.
It is not a logical debate Marko. It is emotional. People have feelings about “home” even if it doesn’t play out in reality the way they think it will. Frustrating but true. Time to build your fourplex 🙂
I’ll also note that there is an issue with strata lawyers peddling useless bylaw amendments to stratas councils on a regular basis so they can send an invoice for $2,000 for copy and pasting the same non-sense they are suggesting to all strata’s. Took me a while to pick up on this scheme which I think is unethical but I started coming across the exact same bylaw amendments between different buildings and then when I looked into it was the same law firm.
We’ve had so many idiotic bylaw amendments in my building over the years at the suggestion of the lawyer such as this occupancy one. Once again, we never had an occupancy problem complaint on record ever prior to this bylaw but the lawyer scared them giving some example in Surrey of 8 people living in a unit. This was initially rolled out as 2 people living in a 1-bedroom and my argument was so what happens if a couple in a 1-bedroom gets pregnant while their neighbour’s have two 150 lb great Danes (legally). The council buckled and changed it to 3 people for a 1-bedroom prior to the vote. Anyway, I still think an absolute idiotic bylaw. If i suspect there are 5 people living in a neighbouring 2-bedroom unit, what am I suppose to spy on them and then they will say it was just a cousin visiting (the 5th person).
Anyway, lawyers pitching stupid crap every year so they can invoice, imo. Once again, context is important here as it is an expensive building so you would never have a family of four trying to live/buy a one bedroom as they can go elsewhere and buy a two bedroom in an older building for cheaper.
“Occupancy Restriction
Owners, occupants, and tenants must not allow more than:
3 people to live in a 1-bedroom strata lot;
4 people to live in a 2-bedroom strata lot; or
6 people to live in a 3-bedroom strata lot.
A person is considered to be residing in the strata lot if they stay there for more than 30 nights in any calendar year.”
The BC Government banned any rental restrictions beyond 90 days so what exactly is the difference between an AirBnb guest arriving for 32 days, 67 days or 92 days (100% legal)? Is a 67 guest more of a stranger than a 92 day guest?
Context is important here as the strata already has a 30 day minimum bylaw so you can’t rent to some for 20 days, for example.
This exact same argument was made for long-term tenants for decades by strata owners in BC. I attended many SGMS and AGMS over the years before 2022 with people arguing about how the building was going to be ruined and fall apart because of long term tenants and they should be banned, etc., and in fact many strata did ban long term tenants. Even newer buildings like Shutters in the Songhees introduced a bylaw where only 10% of the unit could be rented at any one time.
Guess what happened when the government banned long-term rental restrictions in stratas? Absolutely nothing as long term renters were primarily a problem inside people’s heads.
In terms of “guest” I live on the 6th floor and have lived there for seven years since the building was brand new. I don’t know anyone on the 5th floor and I don’t know anyone one the 7th floor. I litreally don’t know who lives above me. On my floor there are six other units. I’ve met two of my immediate neighbours and the other four I don’t know (two units have changed hands in the last two years, haven’t met the new owners and one is a long term rental where the tenants change every few years, and one I simply haven’t met).
As far as a cat, there is one neighbour on my floor that has two small very aboxionous dogs that bark whenever we cross paths with them. I bought into the building knowing two dogs were allowed and I am not trying to restrict dogs. Everyone can read, if you bought into a building that allows 30 day rentals and that owners meets city and provincial regulations why try to restrict his or her right?
Not too mention a million other issues. This bylaw restriction would not force me to delete my AirBnb account, it would simply force me to change the minimum stay to 90 days and then who on the strata is going to monitor all the various platforms to make sure the min is 90 days? Are we going to ask people in the elevator if they are owners or long term tenants and if they answer no to both we ask what is the lenght of their stay? etc. What happens if that person says they are here on a home exchange, does the strata start an investigation?
I don’t think these 30 to 90 days rentals are an issue and I don’t think long term tenants are an issue, but hypothetically Bob and Patty from Winnipeg staying for 30 to 90 days are likely much less of an issue for neighbours/strata than a hypothetical bad long term tenant you can’t do much about. At least Bob and Patty leave.
Finally, I do agree with you. A lot of strata governance is 100% not rational.
Clearly your neighbours don’t want to live with the Airbnb guests whether or not they’ve made an official complaint. You are attributing it to the jealousy over the income earned. I think most of it is that they just don’t want strangers next door even if there is little practical impact. It is about a sense of comfort/community which may not be entirely rational but it is real to them. It is like a building that prohibits one cat. What real significant impact is there from a cat in a condo?
Or rancher with detached garden suite/auxiliary building
Should be a flat 25 percent no matter what u make . Those at the bottom rungs havnt been paying they’re share for a long time , mooches
“the top 10% of income earners apparently also pay some 50% or so of all income tax in Canada”
And so they should, I never complained about paying more in income taxes than a majority of people make and to be honest most highly paid people are over paid to begin with, especially these days.
Condo ownership gives you back time—time that’s used to be spent on maintenance, commuting, or managing a larger property. That regained time becomes the real lifestyle upgrade.
That is a realistic point , and it’s why potential downsizing is only one option. We do have the financial means stay in SFH. I guess for myself, the condo lifestyle has two advantages: one is the maintenance headache – I understand what you’re saying there, though we’re finding the practicalities of trying to outsource everything ourselves even now comes with its own set of headaches; there’s just a certain level of chores we always still end up doing ourselves. And we travel, so better lock & go is attractive. But yes, it’s all doable on some level. The other potential advantage (for me) would be living closer to amenities while still getting a view (on a higher floor).
We have a great place to live right now but it’s fairly isolated in North Saanich. A downsize would see us move into Victoria proper. Whether it’s a condo or a different SFH remains to be seen. We like some of the condos in James Bay, some are big enough with decent-sized patios. But just the other day, we drove by there & realized how sort of almost hemmed in you are by the throng of tourists in the summer, especially when a cruise ship arrives – it was nuts! But nothing’s perfect anyways.
An alternative would be to build exactly what we want if we find the right lot. Say level-entry rancher view home with basement for overflow guests and future help if needed. If we found the right lot, we could buy it now and build later, that way we don’t need to deal with tenants in the interim.
We have hopefully 6-10 years before we really want to do this, so I’m pretty confident something suitable will come along. We keep our eyes on the market, as it’s something we enjoy doing anyways.
And yes, I fully realize these aren’t “real problems”!
People be like that.
I expect there will be more and more problems as the single-family housing option is progressively removed.
Stratas can no longer restrict rentals 90 days or greater. My situation is rather unique.
Therefore, since my place is my princiapl residence I can legally rent it (I have the provincial registration #, etc.) for 30 to 90 days and I’ve been done so a couple of times per year at around 8 to 10k per month (mostly CND snowbirds, a few local Victorians in-between houses, etc.) for the last 4 years (since the restrictions came in).
A few weeks ago I receive an AGM notice that the strata wants to bring in the short-term rental legislation “in line” with the province’s 90 day minimum; however, there is no exemption for principal residence like the province has (they tried to mislead the owners that this was a bookeeping bylaw amendment, but it was going to be a lot more restrictive then both COV and provincial STR regulations). They also put a number of exemptions into the proposed bylaw amendment like you can do home exchanges, you can have a pet sitter, etc., for less than 90 days.
The strata corp doesn’t have a single complaint on file pertaining to these 30 to 90 day rentals which makes sense. The retired pilot and nurse from Winnipeg coming to stay at my place for 30 days to break up their winter for $8k are not causing problems.
I think what happened is probably people start sharing my Airbnb profile and have nothing meaningful going in their lives and simply are jelaous or bitter that I can make quite a bit of money renting my place a couple of times a year.
I have to say a few owners did read through the BS and asked good questions at the AGM. One individual noted if we lived in the COV and the minimum is 30 days why are we trying to bringing it in-line with the provinces 90 days, etc.
One person noted home exchanges are also a business so why are they exempt, etc.
Long story short strata’s are getting crazier and crazier. In this particular scenario, with zero complaints they tried to introduce a rental bylaw more restrictive than COV and province which are already very restrictive.
>> I ask this because basically, we’re keeping our eyes open for an eventual downsize to a condo (as one option), and so far we’re just sort of assuming that whatever the strata thinks or has said in its by-laws, as long as we comply with other rules like tenant behaviour, 55+ or whatever, they can’t restrict us from doing long-term rental.
Rentals in purpose built rentals don’t have this issue, and are secure from the tenants perspective. Renting in a condo is never secure, if you have typical lease terms (one year or shorter term) , because landlord can just sell and new owner evicts you and moves in.
What’s the reasoning for downsizing? IMO living in a SFH is a lifestyle so unless one has due to financial issues then to they shouldn’t downgrade. You can always outsource all the maintenance and upkeep such that your level of effort is the same as that of a condo or townhouse.
Not suprising that strata’s are crazier than ever . I’m finding in my business I have to tell people to get lost more than ever , young and old doesn’t matter . Americans are more out of they’re tree than Canadians , but not too far off
Putting short-term rentals to one side, I was wondering if condo owners wanting to do long-term rentals of their condos are facing unexpected problems notwithstanding the change in law making long-term rental restrictions largely unenforceable?
I ask this because basically, we’re keeping our eyes open for an eventual downsize to a condo (as one option), and so far we’re just sort of assuming that whatever the strata thinks or has said in its by-laws, as long as we comply with other rules like tenant behaviour, 55+ or whatever, they can’t restrict us from doing long-term rental.
But I’m wondering if you see people running into more practical roadblocks somehow? Difficult to see what they would be, but I expect you’re more on the front lines where you might get some experience feedback from clients.
Wild that people don’t discount that neighborhood like they did in the 90s.
Yes. To be fair, apparently the top 10% of income earners apparently also pay some 50% or so of all income tax in Canada – if true, there’s a certain symmetry in that.
Not really. There has been camping around the Kings Courts for years now and people are use to it. A few hundred people walked/rode by this body before it was reported -> https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/sudden-death-at-oaklands-park-leaves-campers-on-edge-no-foul-play-suspected-9124993
Everyone just assumed it was another camper sleeping besides the path.
Every phone call I receive if I am in the office I step outside and walk through the park to get my daily steps in and I’ve never had a sketchy encounter to date despite the campers. Only nuances has been human feces on the tennis courts a couple of times I went to play.
Yet at the same time trying to get her kids into a good public school where the catchment is in a upper income neighborhood…..
Good plan, since you don’t have any first hand experience about the clinic or the doctors. I do, and recommend it.
Have to keep in mind there’s really only a handful of high end restaurants serving 400k+ region, and tons of visitors/tourists etc. There’s going to be a certain % with money to spend but also others just out on a once in a blue moon occasion. I think for a restaurant to make it downtown it has to be near capacity most of the time or have some other revenue source e.g. hotel.
You assume a lot. There may be competent private clinics, but this one is not among them. My opinion has nothing to do with socialism. It has to do with medicine.
Here are the Rate MD reviews for the lead “doctor” at this clinic. Five star reviews with little information, (one might guess where those come from), and lots of one star reviews with detailed information. I’ll leave it at that.
https://www.ratemds.com/doctor-ratings/dr-perpetua-nwosu-victoria-bc-ca/
.>.>.. Maggie: I would prefer nine hours in an emergency room waiting area
Just more uninformed socialist pap from you Maggie, posted because you hate the idea of private for pay health care. So you bash this clinic without knowing anything about it.
Unlike you, I am directly familiar with the health clinic, and the MD’s, and recommend it.
That is not a great clinic by any stretch of the imagination. I would prefer nine hours in an emergency room waiting area to that nest of quacks. Read their google reviews before risking your health there, and then consider that they run this side grift out of the same location.
https://perpetualbeautyandwellness.com/
What about Oaklands? Are perspective buyers turned off when they see the camps in the park?
I wasn’t referring to people with true disabilities, that would be cruel. You brought up disabled individuals, I was referring to the able bodied who choose to underperform and blame their lot in life on someone or something else. Those are the losers I was referring to. That should be obvious. You just like to argue.
I was looking at NYC stats and in June there were more $4+ million condo sales than June 2025, something like 126 vs 120 last year.
I don’t know if the 5% PTT over $3 million in BC has had an impact on luxury home sales. At $5 million there is $168,000 in PTT.
They just moved in a couple of weeks ago, but yes based on our FB group people in my building are not happy as it is an off leash dog park and every other person in the building has a dog so they are worried about their dogs eating something, etc. I don’t really care personally as I have to much going, but the 7pm to 7am bylaw is certainly not enforced so not sure what the point of the bylaw in the first place is.
At least it gives everyone in the building something to rally against and deflect attention to.
I barely escaped the AGM last week not having my short term rental side hustle restricted by the clever thinking of a retired lawyer in the building. One individual had 24 directed proxies so my faith was sealed (the restriction was going through), but this retired lawyer has the clever idea of calling a motion to table the vote before we could vote (on the basis of a lot of wording issues in the bylaw amendment) so that forced the person with the 24 proxies to make a call and he might the right one to table it.
Despite 16 years of being involved in stratas so many new things came up I had not seen before. Both of my immediate neighbours who I am friendly with and expressed they had no issues with me doing a 30 day rental a couple of times a year gave their proxies to someone else, but then attended the meeting and both spoke so I am like why are they even speaking as observers but I figured it out. They were voting to restrict the rentals, but didn’t want me to know they were doing so they filled out proxies knowing they were going to attend the meeting. The amount of games being played these days in stratas is insane.
Love condo living, but strata governance since covid has become one huge sh1tshow that it really making me question strata living. You can’t even debate issus with people anymore. One of my 5 core arguements was the strata has never received a complain pertaining to these 30 to 90 day rentals and this is the counter arguement you get from fellow owners 🙂 Despite zero issues, you get people wanting to restrict other peoples use of property.
“4) The Reality of XXXXX’s “Zero Complaints”. Repeating that XXXX Management has “zero complaints on record” is a classic distraction. Residents often choose to tolerate situations simply to avoid conflict.”
Thank you Bobby K for sharing that. It takes great courage to talk about these things on a public forum.
978 Fir Tree Glen, that’s alot of work over 2 years just to try and barely breakeven. Must be a personal situation causing the sale.
Frank, easy for you to call people losers who may have had the misfortune of poor genetics with physical or mental health problems, suffered abuse or just bad luck in being in the wrong place at the wrong time and crossing the road one day at the wrong time or they just had poor parents. After having had a bad concussion several years ago I got to experience mental health issues for the first time and i now consider it one of the best things that has ever happened to me as I got to learn more about and improve my mental health and now realize that almost everyone is either stuggling with or someone close to them is struggling with mental health problems so be greatful if you aren’t and don’t be so quick to call people losers and blame them for their situations.
I believe in this saying: The harder I work, the luckier I get. Granted, some people are gifted with more assets (looks, talent, brains etc…) I guess they would be considered more fortunate. Losers contribute their misfortune to “bad luck”, that’s just an excuse for lack of effort.
I think the renos were fairly recent, I am marriot guy and don’t stay there often.
yup!
Frank, luck both good and bad also plays a huge part in people’s life outcome, I say this as someone who considers themselves to have been very lucky.
Lots of people start out with nothing but find a way to be successful. It’s a matter of applying yourself and having a strong work ethic. Bad habits certainly don’t help. That’s where discipline comes in.
It’s a K shaped economy out there in Canada and the US with the top 10% of income earners accounting for nearly 50% of all consumer spending in the United States and they also hold 90% of stocks, this is why it appears the economy is doing well but not for the majority of people.
The stock market has doubled over the last 3 years and coupled with high inflation has created a huge divide that may eventually lead to societal problems but hopefully a change in government will swing us back the other way like in places like NYC, I am saying this as a membert of 1% class.
The Fairmont Waterfront hotel was always ridiculously cheap for most of the year until the last few years for some reason.
>> we had a family doctor /
Anyone without a family doctor in Victoria should consider a private clinic in Victoria. Yes, it costs money, but it’s about $2k per year and that’s what people pay for a dentist and many other medical services etc.
Of course the government should find family doctors for everyone for free that wants one. BC already has highest number of MDs per capita of any province, but it still isn’t enough. And they’re working on it.
But in the meantime, that should be no reason for someone in need to not see a MD and get a family doctor that will see them on short notice and regularly..
There are great clinics like this …
https://perpetualhealthcentre.com/join/
Are clients turned off by this?
When I did my masters at UBC 2009-2011 I found a promo code online and I use to stay at the Fairmont Waterfront in Vancouver for $99 per night. I just looked up some dates in the fall, $500/night. 400% increase!!
Summer rates over $700 a night, that is wild. I often find KLM tickets Vancouver to Zagreb for less. Cheaper to go to Europe 🙂
Yes, even have homeless people directly infront of my building in the Songhees right now. 34 parks now you can shelter 7 pm to 7 am -> https://www.victoria.ca/city-government/community-safety-bylaw-services/temporary-overnight-sheltering
LOL $200 for a hotel, maybe in Winnipeg…
Using the high level 4% rule, you need to have about $2.5M in invested assets to safely withdrawal 100k a year with 2% increases annually for 30 years. So that along with 2 sets of CPP and OAS should be enough for a couple to live a decent but not fancy life currently assuming no mortgage, other debts or expensive habits/hobbies.
Homeless people camped out in Oaklands now?
Frank , I will agree that retirement today is a shell shock. Once those checks stop rolling in every 2 weeks life becomes crazy expensive. I have dropped a lot of my retired friends because they have become too cheap and I’m getting a little tired of picking up the tab.
Chump change Marko, try going to a Jets or Canucks game. $200-300 per ticket, $15+ beers, dinner and for out of towners, a $200+ hotel room. Easily over a grand to see a hockey game. People have money to burn until you retire and can’t afford their property taxes.
Doomers don’t understand this so they keep harping about price to income b.s. using 100k as the income benchmark and think the ratio will magically come down to 5x for that sfh in the core……
My mother 30 years ago in 1996 was making $17/hr as a cleaner at VGH. They purchased their home in the Oaklands area for $180,000 and it had a suite that as I recall my parents rented for $650/month when they took possession. We had a family doctor and no homeless people in the park behind my parents’ home.
Times have changed a bit.
Friend invited me to Marilenas a couple of weeks ago, first time there. He said he had to book in advance and only available seating was in the outside patio covered area. $50+ mains and you don’t even get a side. $17 for fries on the side. Place was packed.
Friend that is into cars sent me a sheet for a $168k MSRP car he is ordering, a model I see around town often and the taxes on it just next level insane
Federal luxury tax – 16k
GST – 12k
PST – 36k
You look at models like the Porsche 911 that are 200k plus and even thought Porsche has dramatically increased MSRP to insane levels in the last 5 years and province and feds have piled on luxury taxes sales just keep increasing YOY.
The amount of money floating out there is kind of insane imo.
Working on a missing middle project has been eye opening in terms of how wild the red tape @ COV has become. Spent two years looking for a lot that was flat, no a single tree on the lot, and then designed the simplest townhome multiplex possible (no stacking of units, just side by side townhomes on a slab at grade). The correspondence I am CC’ed on between my various consultants as a result of muncipal requirements is next level, how did we build anything 100 years ago?
“Affordable housing” is one huge joke.
From civil engineer to landscape architect
“City of Victoria has stormwater management requirements that are different than other municipalities. The city wants to see how the stormwater connects to tree pits, and how much soil is available for retention/infiltration, instead of providing a rockpit. Here are some sample calculations below:
Raingarden GSI
Sizing Factor = Percent of impervious tributary area required as base area of rain garden (unitless) – Minimum 5%
KS = Saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsurface soil; 2 mm/hr
DR = Depth (thickness) of rock or sand reservoir; 150 mm
nR = Porosity of Reservoir Layer (unitless); 0.35 (Drain Rock)
nS = Porosity of Soil (unitless); 0.45 (sandy soil bioretention growing medium)
DS = Soil depth; 690 mm
DP = Depth of ponding; 200 mm standard
Calculation
= [((24 × KS) + (nR × DR) + (nS × DS) + DP) / 32]⁻¹
= [((24 × 2) + (0.35 × 150) + (0.45 × 690) + 200) / 32]⁻¹
= [((48) + (52.5) + (310.5) + 200) / 32]⁻¹
= [(611) / 32]⁻¹
= [19.1]⁻¹
= [18.1]⁻¹
= 0.0552 = 5.5%
5.5% > 5.0% (minimum sizing factor)
Minimum area required for rain gardens = 110 m² × 5.5% = 6.1 m²
Rain Garden Area provided as per landscape = 9.0 m²”
Doesn’t seem like it is hitting that point yet, lots of money going around and being spent on discretionary items still.
I’m sure some seniors would take advantage of the tax deferral plan so they can invest the saving, hoping to outperform the interest that they are eventually going to pay. Most accountants would recommend that strategy to their clients. My property taxes are $7000, that’s less than $20 a day, or lunch at McDonalds.
shockingly CARP is carping about the reduced subsidy. Other than that there are a few pieces of useful info, like how to get out of the program.
Typically, you will see reduced staffing in those entry level service jobs and when minimum wage is forced past what is economically sustainable. Then the pendulum swings and we will see minimum wage frozen 10-15 years.
Minimum wage is $18 an hour, but good luck finding 40 hours a week. Employers don’t like full time workers, they are entitled to extra benefits.
Yep nobody has gotten rich being a downer in life.
Ya, prices can only flat line for so long with income increases. Min wage is over $18 an hour now, that means the days of sub-1000 bucks a month for a 1 bedroom suite are never coming back. Doomers just fail to understand this concept.
If someone can’t afford their property taxes and decides to sell, how are they going to afford monthly condo fees and property taxes?
Housing starts in BC starting to look worse and worse
https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/New-Homes-Registry-Report-June-2026.pdf
The trend is not good.
Seems I have to repost the article from the Canadian Association of Retired Persons. It discusses in more detail what I posted earlier.
https://www.carp.ca/2026/05/28/important-reminder-june-1-deadline-to-opt-out-of-b-c-s-property-tax-deferment-program/
>.>> He was just explaining why the changed BC tax deferment program, by imposing real, compounding costs, may provide some incentive to sell,
Anyone selling needs to pay the entire balance of existing tax deferrals off with the proceeds of the sale. Which is obviously a big dis-incentive to sell. Homeowners who don’t want to pay high rates could just pay property tax , stay where they are, and avoid all the costs of selling the home and paying off existing tax deferrals.
Caveat’s post nicely points out the benefits of tax deferrals, namely letting seniors stay in their homes, and helping families with young children. Both of those are good for society.
It shouldn’t. But he wasn’t saying that it should. He was just explaining why the changed BC tax deferment program, by imposing real, compounding costs, may provide some incentive to sell, compared to what it was before. I think.
Tax deferment isn’t and shouldn’t be designed to preserve “future purchasing power”. Why on earth should the rest of society subsidize tax deferment for the wealthy that also preserved their future purchasing power?
The two legitimate use cases are intact:
1) Let’s cash poor seniors reduce expenses and stay in their home longer by dipping into their equity on more advantageous terms than reverse mortgages.
2) Cash crunch years for families – although maybe a LOC would be better
Patrick, what do you think of Reverse Mortgages then?
Once home prices flatten, any lien‑secured, compounding debt — whether a reverse mortgage or BC’s tax deferment program — starts functioning as a slow, structural erosion of future purchasing power. The magnitudes differ, but the direction is the same: each year forward, your equity position shrinks relative to the next home you might want to buy.
Once home prices flatten, any lien‑secured, compounding debt — whether a reverse mortgage or BC’s tax deferment program — starts functioning as a slow, structural erosion of future purchasing power. The magnitudes differ, but the direction is the same: each year forward, your equity position shrinks relative to the next home you might want to buy.
And just like a reverse mortgage, the first couple of years don’t feel catastrophic. The balance grows quietly. But over time the compounding becomes unmistakable — the lien stops being abstract and starts being a visible claim on tomorrow’s mobility.
How is that a comparable with all those recent updates? The actual comparison to that Pacific ave house should be probably be 1042 Donwood in broadmead.
I agree that Oak Bay is more attractive; however, Alamida would be around $2 million in Oak Bay versus $1,260,000 in Cordova Bay and that’s a pretty big spread for most buyers.
Alamina is 2,400 sq.ft., 10,000 sq.ft. lot, with some updates.
Here are some other 1980s homes for sale in Oak Bay for reference.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29672763/1660-hampshire-rd-oak-bay-north-oak-bay
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/30013877/2482-hazel-st-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
What is $1,250,000 in Cordova Bay is a lot more than $1.5 million in Oak Bay.
“How would raising the interest rate for deferrals be a motivation for someone to sell?”
This is causing great anxiety among some people for what isn’t that big a deal so people may make irrational decisions. I think this was a smart move by the province.
Here’s a very recent comparable in town for 4905 Alamida at about 450K more but here you can walk to the beach and rec center within 1K, the market and butcher 150 meters away and ride your bike out your door on an extensive bike network and to a golf course 1km away, almost no need to ever get in your car.
https://housesigma.com/bc/oak-bay-real-estate/2228-pacific-ave/home/amgL7A4q4m2yZ1MW?id_listing=1DBW7RrNvO17qlAp&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=
How would raising the interest rate for deferrals be a motivation for someone to sell? They aren’t impacted until they actually sell, so it’s a deterrent to sell.
Its actually kind of brutal TBH. Think that the current generation funded those low interest rates for the prior generation and now the ladder gets lifted. Overall I’m still in favor because there are way too many people sitting on 4 bed houses that could be used by young families so a motivation to get into a condo maybe is not a bad thing, especially if it helps younger people get into meaningful housing and have more kids. I feel like maybe it should be based on asset type or wealth/income or something though. Theres likely lots of people who require the deferral to even afford their condo…
I have noticed that there are more listings of homes where the owner has used the tax deferment program in the past.
I’ve been wondering whether the recent changes to the deferment program have shifted behaviour among homeowners who were already wavering on the question of downsizing. The old structure quietly supported “aging in place” by keeping the cost of deferral low and predictable. With the new, much higher, compounded interest regime, that cushion is gone.
When a long-standing financial safety valve suddenly becomes expensive, it alters both the math and the psychology of remaining in a larger home.
Financial advisors note that under the old system, deferring taxes for 17 years cost about 7% of a home’s equity. Under the new compounding rules, that same timeline can eat up a devastating 70% of the home’s equity, drastically shrinking the nest egg left for inheritance or long-term
https://www.carp.ca/2026/05/28/important-reminder-june-1-deadline-to-opt-out-of-b-c-s-property-tax-deferment-program/
I can also isolate the Oak Bay market from the general core — why? Because it’s fun. And because Oak Bay reliably behaves like its own micro‑economy. In 2026, detached sales ranged from $770,000 to $4,419,000 across 118 transactions, producing a median of $1,702,500.
The $770,000 sale is an outlier — a tiny house on a tiny lot, effectively land value in my view. I’ve kept it in because I’m using raw data rather than cherry‑picking. The next sale up sits at $1,007,500, which is far more representative of the true lower boundary.
As usual, the real market lived inside a much narrower functional band. Most sales clustered between $1,475,000 and $2,350,000, where buyer demand is deepest and physical attributes are most standardized. Within that corridor, average days‑on‑market ranged from 11 to 52 day.
Outside the band, behaviour becomes idiosyncratic — prestige outliers at the top, atypical stock at the bottom. The depth of demand remains firmly in the mid‑range, which is why isolating Oak Bay is not only fun — it’s analytically justified.
There are some limitations in this type of analysis, particularly around using average days‑on‑market. Some agents routinely re‑list a property to reset the DOM counter, which introduces noise into the dataset. In other words, DOM isn’t perfect — but at the scale of Oak Bay or the core, it remains directionally reliable. The band‑level patterns still show where demand is deepest, where the physical attributes of detached houses is most standardized.
Detached homes in the Victoria core recorded a median sale price of $1,265,000 in 2026, drawn from 826 sales ranging between $535,000 and $9.7M.
Despite that wide envelope, the functional market sat inside a narrow band from $1.05M to $1.60M, where most buyers and sellers actually met.
Within that narrow band, average days‑on‑market ranged from 12 to 42 days — where demand is deepest, liquidity is strongest, and property attributes tend to be more typical: standard lots, conventional layouts, and locations.
Bobbyk Cordova Bay is in the core. The core is Saanich East and West, City of Victoria, Esquimalt, Oak Bay and View Royal. Unless you mean the Victoria Core, aka Downtown Victoria.
It’s a great place to live and highly desirable to many.
Strong sale at 4505 Cottontree. Over $1.5M (100k over assessed) for a non- updated house on a heavily treed lot in south Broadmead.
Lmao
4905 Alamida is overpriced, who wants to live in a dated home far away from town in a car dependant neighbourhood, no thanks, there’s a reason the same dated home in the core would cost a lot more.
Great buy at 4905 Alamida.
Also at a glance roughly similar to the percentage in the US.
The median is the correct method due to the shape of the distribution curve and skewed right tail. Using the mean/average would be misleading and dishonest.
You walk into a restaurant.
The incomes of the patrons form a mildly skewed distribution.
Let’s say the mean income is $100,000.
Then Elon Musk walks in.
He is not “another data point.”
He is a tail event — a value so extreme that it reshapes the entire curve.
The mean jumps to $500,000,000.
But nothing about the typical patron changed.
The distribution’s centre didn’t move.
Only the tail moved.
Nope.
Statcan (see graphic) measures this, and only 42% of wealth is held in Canadian residential house prices. And remember that most of this 42% is money that Canadians have paid in over 25 years to pay off their mortgage – essentially a savings account. And inflation.
So if you buy a $1 million house with a $200k and a $800k mortgage, when you pay it off, you’ve paid in $1 million in equity payments, and the house value represents $1 million savings that you put in, plus whatever rise from inflation and appreciation (that would have happened with other investments too).
>.> I keep hearing about how our incomes and productivity are terrible, worse than Mississippi and yet we have this fantastic amount of wealth?
Yes, median wealth per adult. Note the term “median” and not average. Any stats like gdp per capita are using averages, and that includes a larger percent held by the uber-wealthy and corporations. So that’s why Canada median wealth per adult is so high, in that this wealth is held by regular canadians.
If Canada accepts 1 million immigrants, your personal net wealth doesn’t fall, despite gdp per capita falling. Read an article like this for more detail on this. https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/05/06/per-capita-gdp-is-a-deeply-flawed-measure-of-economic-performance-and-living-standards/
Leo, the much higher median wealth of Canadians compared to Americans is attributed to 3 factors:
1. as you say, bigger housing equity
2. lower expenses for some essentials like healthcare and college/university
3. a narrower distribution of incomes (US has more extreme wealth inequality. Their average wealth is higher than Canada, while median is lower.)
“The long term explanation for the rise in house prices across Canada is CANADIAN AFFLUENCE”
I’d say its in the opposite direction: “the long term explanation for the rise in Canadian Affluence is the rise in house prices” due in large part to devaluing our currency via central banks.
Generally the post Covid rate increase has reduced market inequality in Canada. Cheap markets jumped while expensive markets stagnated or declined.
However it’s worth noting that we’ve been here before. Expensive markets weren’t always so much more than cheaper markets. Victoria used to be not much more expensive than Edmonton.
Huh, is this all real estate? I keep hearing about how our incomes and productivity are terrible, worse than Mississippi and yet we have this fantastic amount of wealth?
The Dowtown core has a wide range in price. In the last 30 days a condo sold for $280,000 and another at $2,750,000.
If we knock out the high and low, the Downtown core has median price of $521,250 with an verage days-on-market of 58. Months of Inventory at around 7.2 an a Sale to New Listing Ratio of 0.35 (roughly 2.85 new listings added for every sale) which puts downtown condos at the cusp of a buyer’s market.
That will buy you a 20 yer-old non view condo of some 800 square feet at say the 700 block of Cormorant that would rent for about $3.00 a square foot.
Revenue $28,800
Strata Fee $5,400
Taxes $3,100
Insurance $1000
Expenses $9,500
Net Operating Income before debt servicing $19,300
Capitalization Rate about 3.75%
Five year Canadian bond yield 3.1 to 3.3 percent
Oh Canada!!
The long term explanation for the rise in house prices across Canada is CANADIAN AFFLUENCE. Canadians now have highest median wealth per adult of any of the G7 countries (that’s double the USA median). This is shown in the latest UBS 2026 global wealth report, based on data from the IMF and World Bank.
Winnipeg inventory at 3700, city twice the size. Monthly sales around 1600. Victoria prices 2-3xs higher. In certain neighborhoods there are lots of homes around 1 million. Also lots of cheap homes in run down areas that bring the average down, very misleading.
July 13th, 2026
Month Jul Jul
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 244 680
New Listings 499 1,362
Active Listings 3,937 3,702
I personally have four listings coming off market this week (three sellers have decided to rent and try again in a few years, one seller decided to stay put). Small personal sample size, but I think inventory has peaked. A number of listings will come off market and I think due to the poor market new listings coming to market will slow down as well.
Sales have started the month a lot better than I thought they would. On pace for about 700 sales for the month which would beat out last year and we’ve only had one month this year higher YOY and it was higher by one sale. I was guessing around 600 sales for the month a couple of weeks ago.
Winnipeg is at peak house prices now, up 6% YOY.
Same for Quebec City, peak and up 10% YOY
https://housepriceindex.ca/2026/06/may2026/
Crazy how different markets are across the country -> https://realestatemagazine.ca/saskatchewan-home-sales-surge-in-june-as-inventory-hits-record-lows/
Most of our waterfront is quite high. There are a few low spots. Couple of homes in Cadboro Bay, mouth of Colquitz Creek, few other spots in the Gorge. Rising water will accelerate erosion in some areas prone to it. In the next 50-80 years that’ll probably be more of a problem than actual flooding from sea level rise.
Sometime between later tonight and 500 years from now we will have a big megathrust quake. At that point West Vancouver Island will sink a meter or two as the stress is released. Followed of course by a tsunami
No one cares.
My friend in Minneapolis had a house with a small creek running behind it. It cost him $4000 a year extra insurance for flooding. One year it flooded his house. I would never buy waterfront property.
And the price is reflective of that.
And it is pretty well-known, or easily discoverable, where the really erosion-prone areas are
FYI
https://capital-region-tsunami-information-portal-bcgov03.hub.arcgis.com/
There are well-known erosion issues for some oceanfront in Victoria.
People with waterfront on Lake Winnipeg in a community called Victoria Beach had to pay $45,000 each to have rocks hauled in to slow down erosion. I suppose there is also no erosion in Victoria.
. .> If sea levels rise, waterfront property plummets.
No big risk from rising sea levels in Victoria. Once again, Victoria is “blessed” in this regard, compared to other parts of the world.
For starters, sea levels globally has only risen 5 inches in the last thirty years.
But Victoria sea levels have risen much less than that, almost nothing (only one inch over the last 30 years). Why? That’s because the land around Victoria and southern Vancouver island is rising (ancient post-glacial adjustments). The heavy glaciers of the ice age were pushing our land down, and since they’re gone our island land gradually rises. This will continue to rise for thousands of years. In Tofino, sea levels have actually fallen because of this rising land phenomenon. Climate change experts predict from global warming, there will be a net sea level rise of about 3 feet in Victoria by 2100, with most of that happening near the end of the century. Seems like a non-issue for most Victoria waterfront property for the next 50+ years anyway,
Marko- What do you think the net worth of the sellers and buyers of the Uplands property? Bet it was over 5 million.
If sea levels rise, waterfront property plummets.
.>.>>> And assumes the $2M property will appreciate at the same rate as a more mass market lower valuation.
I see much higher prices ahead for the ultra-luxury homes, especially waterfront in Victoria. Probably exceeding the mass market in increases by % terms.
Average wealth in Canada for the highest quintile has been appreciating faster than inflation and more than lower income quintiles for a long time.
It’s the wealthiest quintile that’s buying the mult-million$ homes. They’re not as dependent on income, as they average $3.5 million of net worth.
Their net worth is 3.5X higher than the next richest (4th) quintile. And their net worth has been rising faster than other quintiles, with the richest quintile rising by 6% ($201,000) compared to the next quintile at 4% ($50,000). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260413/t003a-eng.htm
A lot of different moving parts here.
One thing I am finding is I feel like new homes aren’t depreicating/dating like they use to. A 2010 yr build is a LOT closer to a 2026 than it is to a 1994. I am not seeing any breakthroughts in terms of design or construction methods. Construction costs are also through the roof and with homes aging slower, imo, I don’t think they will depreciate as much.
Not even factoring living in a much nicer house and not having to deal with tenants.
I remember back in 2014 showing a near new home in the Uplands with a 1/2 acre south facing yard. Top notch quality construction, beautiful home. That home sold in 2014 for $2.1 million. It just re-sold for $4.420 million so $2.32 million tax free uplift in 12 years and you live in a luxury house on a 1/2 acre with a spectacular south facing yard.
Unlikely to happen as you will hit an inflection point eventually as the price increases. West side of Vancouver is a prime example as prices have barely budged in over 10 years for those 3 million entry level homes.
And assumes the $2M property will appreciate at the same rate as a more mass market lower valuation. I think this really depends on where the value lies. A brand new build on a regular lot where $1M is the house value? I would expect it to appreciate a lot slower than a big lot with a mostly depreciated house on it where 75%-80% of the value is in the land (especially if it could be split)
But the principal residence exemption is a big one. If you do the math it’s surprisingly close between buying one $2M house or two $1M houses with one being a rental.
1.3 for that neighborhood? Pretty poor value imo.
Extended warranties are a must for European vehicles. I am getting one once the CPO warranty runs out.
People are dumb enough to get reverse mortgages? Hmmm, I guess there are people that buy extended warranties, sign cell phone contracts, sell Amway, sign gym contracts, buy payment insurance, child life insurance, and pay for discounts. All falls under it’s morally wrong to let suckers keep their money.
reverse‑mortgage usage is rising in BC along with the bank of mom and dad using their home equity for thier kids.
1195 Kings Road just re-listed. Seems well priced for that neighbourhood. I can’t remember where it was priced before, but there might be a catch, like maybe some tenants who want to stay. Nice looking place if you like mid-century modern.
I wonder how they count those with no mortgage or very small mortgage owing but a undrawn HELOC line available? Every home owner should have a HELOC, doesn’t cost anything extra and a is a huge source of quick and cheap and liquidity.
LMAO, again explain why someone needs a minimum $5M net worth to buy a $2M house. Or better yet just admit that you were just spewing “hogwash” as usual.
Here’s some data that might go against your priors: between the year 2000 and now, the percentage of younger owners (under 60) that are mortgage free has actually increased, while the percentage of older owners that are mortgage free has decreased.
Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasdavidoff_this-is-not-at-all-what-i-expected-to-see-share-7481149914660413440-ocNl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAAvBmB4Bjxaj43Pr8Cs0-GLupWT1GyaiM4s
I don’t think banks are anxious to lend over 2 mil to anyone with only 5 or 10% down. They do take stock of your net worth and take that into account when approving the mortgage. They also look at car loans (leases), credit card balances, and credit history. Anything can happen to one or both high income earners- loss of employment (higher risk recently), illness (disability coverage not always available), death, etc.. Add potential market downturns and that’s how people get into trouble.
Really Frank?
-Sounds like your wife married the hot kid from the slow class.
Ya I think Frank blurted out something that doesn’t make sense.
Explain your minimum $5 millions net worth to buy a 2 million house math.so.we.can all understand.
Back in the 1960’s there was a similar get rich opportunity that resembled You Tube stardom. It was as simple as forming a rock and roll band and writing a number one hit song. No problem, we all aspired to become a rock idol, hey if 4 lads from Liverpool can do it, why can’t I? Guitar sales were through the roof, everyone owned one. If that didn’t work, our alternatives were the NHL, NFL, or NBA. I was bound to make it in one of those leagues, right?
500k cash in the bank +500k combined income = less than 1% of the population. I don’t know how some people can’t understand that.
Groot- I’m already a short walk to the ocean. No need to waste my time on You Tube.
Low income people.cant comprehend that the higher income you are the more proportion of that income you can put towards housing costs. At 100k income it will be hard to live if more than 60% of your take home goes to housing costs. At 500k, that’s cake walk..
Walter, you have more uses that can be put to your property than your neighbour.
This has nothing to do with trees and everything to do with property rights.
Canadian courts have repeatedly affirmed that land‑use restrictions, tree‑protection bylaws, and agricultural‑use limitations create legally meaningful differences in the bundle of rights between parcels. These differences matter because they determine what an owner is legally permitted to do with their land.
It’s just common sense, Walter.
When rights differ, value differs.
You can enhance the value of your property by clear‑cutting or selectively cutting trees to expand agricultural use, intensify production, or reposition the site.
Your neighbours cannot.
That difference is a property right, and only property rights — not aesthetics — are capitalized into market value.
So when a buyer comes to your property, you can explain that your site is grandfathered and retains full agricultural and clearing rights, unlike the neighbours across the street. That buyer now faces a simple choice:
Your parcel — full rights, full flexibility, full agricultural potential
Neighbour parcels — restricted rights, capped agricultural use, limited clearing
Which property are they more likely to buy?
The market consistently prefers the parcel with more rights, more options, and more future flexibility.
Depending on current market forces, that preference can manifest as either:
-a higher price, because the unrestricted parcel commands a rights‑based premium, or
-a quicker sale, because the unrestricted parcel appeals to a broader buyer pool.
Sales are also much better to start the month than I thought they would be. A number of sales above $4 million too. If this pace was to continue we would beat out last year.
I don’t think buyers go into this level of nuances to have a substantial impact on market value. No buyer has every asked me about tree bylaw differences from muncipality to muncipality and used that to influence a decision to purchase, for example.
Given the homes in your area are large (and likely newer and built within last 20-30 years) there is no development potential in terms of density. Really it will come down to each individual property and whether it speaks to buyers or not. I don’t think many buyers will attribute much value, if any, on the basis of how many trees can be cut down or not on subject property and adjacent property.
Another big day SFD listings as the dog days of summer continue.
I have a question regarding how zoning changes impact market value.
I have a small farm on the peninsula, (not in the ALR) where the average lot size is between 1 and 3 acres. We are currently zoned for single family and agriculture as principal uses. The area is best described as garden estates with big houses, big lawns and big gates on the driveway apron. We are allowed detached accessory dwellings units but most of us have not built them yet. Local government is updating the rules for our zone such that we can’t use more than 25% of the lot for agriculture. This is to protect trees as the local government recently lost a court case whereby another landowner in another zone sued the government for imposing tree protection bylaws (and associated fines) when they cleared treed land for farming. In an effort to prevent landowners from clearcutting their lots under the bullshit guise of farming, the government is imposing this new restriction on all lots in my area that aren’t currently farming. Since I am actively farming on my lot, myself and a handful of others that have farm status are being grandfathered into the new regime with 100% agricultural use allowed. This means I’ll still be able to clear my entire lot while most of my neighbours will not. As it stands now, most of the lots already have 25% or more of their lots cleared of trees so it is effectively freezing the zone’s tree coverage in perpetuity (although I’m pretty sure there are provisions for clearing in order to build the ADUs most of us have yet to build)
How does this impact land values? Is there an argument that since my neighbours’ ability to clear land is more restricted that their values should go down relative to mine? Or will the fact that my neighbours are forced to keep their nice trees that (I think) adds value to the entire area mean that their land values remain the same and mine go up because I am unrestricted in my ability to clear land?
I think the big difference is some of these new multiplexes, not all, you are on a residential street.
If the principal residence capital gains exemption is going to stick long term I think you are best off to buy as much principal residence as you can reasonably afford, assuming stable income.
If you are young professionals with 500k (net worth $500k) down making $500,000 per year combined (and stable jobs) I see nothing wrong with buying a $2 million home. That $2 mill home will be $4 million in 20 to 30 years and that $2 million worth of appreciation will be tax free (assuming no change to principal residence exemption).
Makes you question why people are paying just as much or more for these new multiplex products right?
I still want to understand why someone needs a net worth of at least $5M prior to buying a $2M home.
Frank, you’re just one viral video away from living on Oak Bay waterfront.
https://youtu.be/XqZsoesa55w?si=tkluRYWDiyD1k3z8
Sale history on https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/30014543/2-2910-shelbourne-st-victoria-oaklands
Dec 23, 2022 – Sale Closed – $1,149,000
Aug 30, 2022 – Sale Closed – $1,100,000
Oct 29, 2020 – Sale Closed – $825,000 (that would have been the pre-sale purchase price so 5% GST applicable – $866,250 including GST).
I would say it is a lot less than 2 to 5% in terms of being able to live of YT. It is probably under 0.2%. That doesn’t really matter thought, there are enough buyers out there in terms of absolute numbers to support the market at these prices. The other 99.8% of unsuccessful YTers are at their day job not buying multi-million dollar homes.
How many You Tubers have found success? Maybe 2-5%, who knows. How many went nowhere, 95+%? It’s definitely a long shot. It helps if you’re blessed with extremely good looks. That is also a very small percentage of the population.
LMAO how do you figure? Please enlighten us with your made up math.
No but it is very relevant to wealthy Canadians from other cities/provinces looking at RE around the world.
A local millennial tech entrepreneur bought a $7M teardown in uplands late last year to be closer to the other local tech entrepreneurs.
It is a lot of money, but the world has changed a lot in the last 20 years. There is so much opportunity out there these days you would be shocked how much and using what avenues people are making large sums of money. For example, I personally have several clients from Victoria that are professional YouTubers and make a great living.
For example, I helped this lovely couple with a transaction in Victoria (they are also from Victoria) -> https://www.youtube.com/@SailingNahoa/videos
No a client of mine but I am aware of a YouTuber that bought a near $5 million home in Victoria recently.
I don’t think people grasp how much money 2 million dollars is. The most I’ve ever paid for a property is $370,000. I would never tie up millions of cash in one or two properties Having said that, two of my properties are well over a million. Guess I should take my own advice and dump them. Like I said before, anyone buying a 2 million plus property should have a net worth of 5-10 mil.
Wouldn’t be shocked if Carney didn’t extend the ban and Eby dropped the foreign buyer tax based on the advice of their friend Bob Rennie.
Keep in mind $2 million CND is $1.2 ish Euros or 1.4 ish USD and many markets have seen appreciation in the last five years versus we’ve been flat or grinding down depending on product so we’ve become relatively more affordable.
Unless those buyers have Canadian citizenship they can’t reasonably buy this property so it’s really not that relevant to most citizens of other countries
Thank you. Also Marko brought up a really good point that I 100% agree with where anywhere else in the world that I been to that’s nice and I would consider living there, the prices are more than Victoria. I don’t think people grasp how good of deal it is in a global context that for around 2.5M CAD you can have a nice house on the ridge in Cordova bay with unobstructed ocean views, or for less than $5M you can get a waterfront estate in 10 mile point. Also for less than $2M you can get nice updated non-view homes in Oak Bay, Fairfield, Cadbro Bay and Broadmead. I think those are very compelling value propositions for those with some money.
Direct comparisons are likely to be useless. The point wasn’t to pretend these cities truly resemble Victoria – obviously they do not. But the bigger-picture point is the one VicRE made earlier, ie. with all the money sloshing around the world, desirable places are bid up everywhere, and Victoria is relatively “inexpensive” in that context. Yes, it’s also not Sydney, Zagreb, or even Vancouver. And yes, most of our market is a local market. And still the point holds.
Absolutely valid point
4 million dollar homes? What about the other 99%+ of the population? Every million dollar and up super car obscure manufacturers can produce is presold and added to massive car collections hidden on hundred million dollar estates, mostly in the desert. It’s called concentration of wealth.
muted.
” Even Zagreb which isn’t that nice/desirable is now more expensive than Victoria apple to apple. ”
“We were in Sydney, Australia not long ago, the prices there make Victoria look very reasonable. ”
These quotes are city comparisons. They use Zagreb and Sydney as mirrors to make a point about Victoria, and the conclusions depend entirely on the observer’s chosen axis — price, desirability, or lifestyle.
You are a dumb ass, no one is comparing Victoria to other cities.
I doubt we’ll ever see consensus on which cities truly resemble Victoria. Each comparison reveals the observer’s priorities more than any objective likeness. That’s why every argument is simultaneously right and wrong.
However, if you were to ask AI….
That $4M I referenced is CAD.
Vancouver is much more attractive to Sydney given its proximity to the U.S. and easy travel to Europe. Australia you are in the middle of nowhere ( london is twice as far compared to YVR), very inconvenient unless you just like going to bali.
Excavation, formwork, envelope, drywall trades are all calling around looking for business and being aggressive with pricing. Mechanical and Electrical not as desperate anymore with all the data center rage but not raising prices. These are larger contractors though, don’t know what the mom and pops are doing.
Yes, especially with our currency.
We were in Sydney, Australia not long ago, the prices there make Victoria look very reasonable. Ok we’re not Sydney, Australia. But those prices also make Vancouver look pretty good.
Vicre, I’m paying alittle more for appliances, cedar prices and steel siding . Don’t know what everyone else is doing , although we are not in the same business
I’m seeing the same thing across the rental market: two‑bedroom demand is noticeably deeper than one‑bedroom demand. Absorption is stronger, price resistance is lower, and units are turning over faster — even though the headline rents still look high.
Incentives have also become far more common. Parking included, laundry cards, WiFi, rent credits, and similar concessions are now standard in many buildings. I’m not convinced Rentals.ca adjusts for any of this. They report posted rents, not economic rents — a subtle but important distinction. In practice, landlords prefer offering incentives rather than reducing base rent, because concessions don’t reset the rent roll and can be withdrawn later.
One change I noticed last month was with the “free month” incentive. A property manager offered a choice: either take the prorated 13th month free, or reduce the base rent spread over 12 months. That’s the first time I’ve seen that option presented, and it’s telling — it suggests managers are becoming more flexible in how they structure concessions.
As for vacancy, it’s incredibly difficult to pin down. My sense is that Victoria is still somewhere in the 3–4% range, but with the sheer volume of new rentals hitting the market, it’s hard to know in real time. Most economists argue that a significant, broad‑based decline in rents doesn’t become pronounced until vacancy approaches 7%. If that’s the threshold, then we’re still below it — but the direction of travel is clearly upward.
Vicre, your doing better than me then , appliances , finished cedar products and steel siding are coming in alittle higher
Maybe I missed something, have you sworn off debt or converted to Islam?
Asking rents update. Generally the market seems to have stabilized
Pretty sure he posted that he already done so months ago. I am sure detective Patrick will know.
Funny I am seeing decrease of the same on the mainland, plus trades too.
Groot , ya I would imagine that will definitely help with projects. I was just posting that I’ve had 3 suppliers that said prices are tipping up on next orders so I’m guessing some pressure there. Not seeing it on the labour side . I myself don’t absorb those costs I make sure to pass them along
But Thursty, land prices are down.
A 6,200 square foot lot along Rockland just sold at $840,000. The land was assessed at $1,078,000.
A 10,000 square foot lot in Gordon Head sold for $650,000. Assessed at $1,003,000.
A 10,000 square feet lot along Feltham, that I think would be a good candidate for missing middle, sold for $915,000. Assessed at $965,000
That’s different from 2021 when the developer paid $1,425,000 for the vacant 4 unit townhouse lot along Ash road.
Realistically I probably won’t do it. If I was younger and leveraging I think it would make more sense, but without leverage real estate is less exciting.
For example, you buy that condo for 600k and even if it pops back up to 700k in 5 years odds are something like VDY.TO will jump that much in the same timespan and you have zero hands on work.
If leveraging on the other hand and you can run the condo cash flow neutral than that is a different story. Put down 150k and if jumps 100k in 5 years than that is a decent return on that 150k downpayment.
Yep. Not to get into market timing, but combo of super-rich equity valuations and depressed real estate market is bringing opportunities.
Though I always think land is going to do better long term so I’m not interested in investment condos myself.
But to live in, buying a condo now makes a ton of sense. Of course when it makes sense is when people are least inclined to buy.
Well maybe the bottoms in, I’m getting price increases on building supplies . That’s the first time in 2 years.
I think it goes over, maybe 620 or somewhere around there.
The cheapest 2 bed 2 bath sale ever in the building was in June of 2020 for $635,000.
713 is the one listed for $599,900, who knows what is sells for.
813, the unit directly above it sold in 2022 for $801,000.
It is going to be a long time before anything start construction in terms of strata pre-sale. These prices are below replacement cost.
2016 pricing? Wow, worse than I thought. What’s the last 2 bed 2 bath sale at 989?
They just lowered the price 50k and still available so not a bidding war situation. Simply downtown condo market is back to 2016 pricing for many buildings.
For that price I think I’ll take one of those townhouse units on ash road instead…
Priced for bidding war? I’d take legato instead if there is one available there at the same price…
I just told you capital has never been more mobile, why should the money only come from local residents?
The question is: Where does the money come from to drive up property prices in desirable locations? Definitely not from local residents, most don’t have the income to afford a house, even a condo. I’ll remind everyone that $500,000 is a ton of money and totally out of reach for most people. Especially those without some generational windfall.
When I travel if I like a place it is typically more expensive than Victoria. Even Zagreb which isn’t that nice/desirable is now more expensive than Victoria apple to apple. For condo prices in particular, combination of prices dropping for last four years in Victoria and the CND being so weak is making Victoria relatively cheap to other desirable places around the world.
Condo prices downtown are getting to the point they are so beat down I am starting to consider taking some money off the table in the markets. 2 bed 2 bath corner concrete unit downtown for under 600k (even at asking price this will be the lowest sale price ever at 989 for a 2 bed 2 bath by a wide margin) -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29894023/713-989-johnson-st-victoria-downtown
Basically side by side duplexes with one bedroom suites behind the garage, but the one bedroom suites are strata title condo units. Yes, garage belongs to the two story unit. Interesting that the rear yard is geared towards the one bed $360k units.
Frank, my understanding is there isn’t any restrictions on foreign ownership of commercial property in Canada . It would be very counter productive for businesses here
So the first floor are two units and then with two more 2 story units stacked on top? And the single car garages belong to the 2 story units?
Anyone know what the regulations are regarding the purchase of commercial or industrial property by foreigners?
More missing middle product on a 6,000 sq.ft. lot. Kind of like a duplex with strata condo units on the lower
Uppper -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/30003170/a-4016-wiseton-st-saanich-marigold
Lower -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29960019/d-4016-wiseton-st-saanich-marigold
FYI Patrick
https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/five-forces-driving-british-columbia-real-estate?utm_source=copilot.com
In the past, any downturn in greater Victoria prices has been seen when BC population fell. I don’t see BC population falling.
Thanks!
Here is a beat up 1 bed condo in Nice France for around 700k CAD. Capital has never been more mobile, there are no “deals” to be had in any diserable cities in the developed world period.
https://www.french-property.com/sale-property/3772-Aovs5iw8vntbaml2
Not in desirable cities and neighborhoods. Good try though.
There are also >50,000 SFHs homes from Sidney to Sooke; however, that doesn’t mean that prices won’t go up in the future due to scarcity.
There are probably 20,000 condos from Sidney to Sooke, and at least 2,000 will come to the market every year.
I don’t think China has an immigration problem, they have an over population problem, that’s why they want to come here and drive up our prices. Without all the over immigration we’ve experienced, houses here would be half price. Not to mention the 30 million Chinese living in caves.
Most people have zero concept of what expensive house prices actually are around the world. For example, I’ve stayed in this neighborhood in shanghai for business before (considered diserable and in the financial district) and this is what $4MCAD gets you (and that’s with the recent downturn)… mind you all residential land in China are 70 year leases and this one is already 20 years old. You can see what $4M will get you in Victoria/Vancouver/Toronto so to many foreigners, prices here are a dream.
https://www.merryhome.com/apartment/054556-135m2-2beds-2baths.html
If the conservatives get in?
On the bright side, there is a chance the provincial government will forget about the tunnel and build a bridge instead.
Leo – I had my chimney repointed by Lennox Masonry in 2024. Give them a call/email. They were quick to respond.
Depends on lot of factors, many current projects are running under budget due to a combination of cooler construction costs and the high contingencies built into the budget.
Thing is it won’t actually be $8.5 billion in the end. This is just the start.
That’s actually not too bad, I thought it was going to be around $10b. Every project budget public or private got blown out during COVID, so definitely not a government only problem.
What else is new -> https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/b-c-massey-tunnel-replacement-222043327.html
I am just the government will do a great job with the condo bailout.
and there won’t be much condo construction for years to come. I think in 10 years when a person reaches out to me in regards to buying a newer condo downtown or nearby that newest condo building will be 13 years old.
Do you think the lack of strata construction going forward could lead to a lack of strata inventory for people to buy which may drive up prices in 10 years as a direct result, or will people simply be satisfied with the substitute of renting? (there will be plenty of rental projects build in the next 10 years).
A building’s physical life and its economic life are not the same. A house may remain structurally sound for many decades, but as land values rise and the building depreciates, the land can eventually account for 90% or more of the property’s value. At that point, although the house is physically serviceable, it may be economically obsolete and become a teardown because the land’s highest and best use is redevelopment.
It will also become increasingly more difficult for a prospective purchaser to finance. Lenders have strict reguations on how long they will amortize a loan. For a purchaser to obtain a 25 year amortization the structure has to have 25 plus 5 years of remaining economic life. That equates to roughly 60 percent observed condition based on depreciation tables.
You may have. We live in a cookie cutter 70s box that was slapped together by greedy developers at maximum speed and minimum cost over 50 years ago. It has aluminum wiring and probably asbestos (don’t ask don’t tell). And it’s been standing for 50 years and I see no indication that it won’t stand for another 50. In the 13 years we’ve owned it, we’ve made no major repairs other than a new roof and some small quality of life DIY projects. The chimney needs repointing (anyone know someone,? literally no one will return my calls on this)
Every decade of house has different problems. As long as there aren’t water issues I think don’t worry too much.
Why should it be “affordable”?
Did you walk through that one?
Prices in Victoria are insane. It will never be affordable.
Good deal at $2.5 million. Repalcement cost over $3 million.
There was a near new net new build (developed on empty lot ) that just sold on boulderwood in broadmead 🙂
Royal Bay, South Point, etc. There have been neighbours of SFHs built in the last 15 years; however, it is slowly coming to an end.
I don’t think the number of SFHs has started contracting substantially yet; however, the trend is certainly that direcion.
Maybe in Saanich you see a contraction of approximately 30 SFHs +/- in the next 12 months (missing middle projects).
The total inventory trend towards contraction is being masked by a poor real estate market. Will be fun times when the market picks up again in a few years and SFH inventory is contracting and your are trying to outbid a developer/builder for a SFH. Given how well missing middle has been selling in this slow market I anticipate it will sell really well in a better market; therefore, more demand from developers for more projects.
Month Jul Jul
Year 2026 2025
Net Unconditional Sales 79 680
New Listings 167 1,362
Active Listings 3,952 3,702
Oak bay is still building single family homes if your interested
I’d be interested to see how the total number of single-family homes have shifted over the past few years.
I’m guessing the total inventory of SFH in the region is contracting, and that the rate of contraction is accelierating (i.e. making SFH more scarce).
I see no new SFH being built outside of Royal Bay; the odd older house being torn down for a new one (for a net increase of zero); along with swaths of older SFH being torn down for either 4-plexes, or multi-family units.
I’m wondering how much the sum of all SFH has actually shifted over the past 5 yrs or so. How many have we lost?
I haven’t seen a new suburb of SFH being built for maybe 15 years or so, back when Westshore and the Peninsula were building streets and neighborhoods of new houses.
The housing market
https://youtube.com/shorts/lqxWH1VXopU?si=MsnGbDEbDPx7X9OF
I am hunting but it would be nice if they were building more houses that look like they were built to last more than twenty years. I need a house that is going to last me for the next 40 years and then is still good enough for one my kids to live in. Maybe I have been watching two many U Tube videos on bad house construction.
Guess the problem is that new really well built houses are both rare and out of my price range. Not complaining, if it was not for grandpa everything would be out of my price range so I am really lucky.