April: Same sales as last year, but buyers market continues
April sales came in matching the year ago total for the first time in a number of months, but that’s more to do with a weaker comparison month than any particular change in the market. Sales continue to be very weak, and the market stays more in favour of buyers than sellers.
While sales were the same as last April, new lists were 7% higher than a year ago, when they were already fairly strong.
Inventory continues the upward trend we’ve been on all year. Of course listings always pile on this time of year, but extracting the underlying trend shows that they’re coming on faster than is normal for this time of year.
Market conditions are about the same as they’ve been for the past few months with months of inventory weakening slightly while sales to new list ratio strengthened a tiny bit.
Combining the two measures shows essentially no change, we’re still balanced right at the edge of a buyers market like we were in March.
No great change to prices, with detached still looking strongest of the bunch (though spring often brings strength there to be given up later in the year) while condos and townhouses are pretty flat.
I’ve written before about how fall is usually a slightly better time for buyers in Victoria. Turns out that seasonality is common characteristic of many markets, according to this research from Redfin.
Of course right now the market is slow enough that sellers are already dropping prices, but if the market stays like this, the rate of price concessions should continue to increase throughout the summer to peak in the fall.
May numbers: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2026/06/05/may-market-cracks-4000-listings/
This thread did not begin nor did it ever mention the service sector. It was about growing the GDP though sustained commercial trade expansion versus increasing the population.
the service sector follows trade, it doesn’t spark it. A country doesn’t get rich by just having barbers, baristas, and accountants trading dollars among themselves. Real wealth is generated when a country builds tangible assets—energy, minerals, advanced manufactured goods—and sells them to the rest of the world. That primary injection of global capital is what ultimately funds and expands the domestic service sector.
When you intend to invest over $500 billion into building the physical networks that move goods, electricity, and data, you organically create a high-wage economy. The resulting royalities, corporate taxes, and well-paying industrial jobs are what sustainably fund public infrastructure, rather than relying on rapid population growth to artificially inflate the top-line GDP.
Same builder is finishing 4 more one house over, a small house is sandwiched between the two 4plexes which is unfortunate.
Groot , the service sector is 70 percent of the economy. Now if you’re implying Canadas economy revolves around mineral extraction , manufacturing and exports that is inaccurate. I like that Canada is talking about projects but we havnt built anything yet . Big projects take years not months . We became a service based economy on purpose not by accident
Not accurate Thursty, the Canadian government has actively shifted away from incremental growth to push massive infrastructure. The last time Canada experienced this scale of expansion was between 1940 to 1960 with projects like the Trans-Canada Highway, St. Lawrence Seaway, and hydro dams.
One of the Dale units sold at 875k+GST, two more available -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29777737/1-921-dale-st-saanich-high-quadra
Groot, Canada has been moving away from an economy that u describe, for the most part hasn’t existed for a long time . We have become since the 90s a predominantly service based economy with lower paying jobs . So I’m not too sure ports and infrastructure has been holding back the economy. Canadas business are not big players on the global stage . I do agree now is the time to get building again
Canada’s infrastructure is near its expiration date. Bridges are ancient, sewer and water lines long overdue for replacement, streets and highways have deteriorated thanks to our extreme temperatures, the list goes on and on. It will bankrupt everyone.
Canada cannot raise real incomes through population growth alone. Real, sustainable prosperity comes from expanding commercial trade, not simply adding more people. And meaningful trade growth depends on massive investments in national infrastructure — the ports, rail corridors, pipelines, and transmission lines that move Canadian goods to global markets.
Right now, port capacity is the biggest bottleneck in Canada’s supply chain. Our exporters can produce more, but they can’t ship more without modern, expanded ports on both coasts. Until we fix this, Canada’s trade potential will always be capped.
Meanwhile, the United States benefits from our infrastructure gap. Because Canada lacks sufficient port, rail, and pipeline capacity, we rely heavily on U.S. roads, railways, and ports to move Canadian goods overseas. Those extra shipping costs enrich the American economy — not ours.
The good news is that Canada is now viewed as the number one country in the world for future investment. Global capital wants to come here. But to turn that interest into higher real incomes, Canada must build the infrastructure that allows our exporters to reach the world on Canadian terms.
And I think that individual Canadians should be able to personally invest and profit in these long term investments.
The deficits are huge and in my opinion will only get bigger especially in BC, productivity is unlikely to improve; therefore, one way to manage the deficits will be to grow the GDP via immigration. I think immigration will ramp up again quietly at some point.
Even thought we are horribly mis-managed from municipal to federal governments Canada does have politically stability and resources so at some point if things get bad enough we do have the ingredients to be a prosperous country.
In the last 10 years GDP per capita is up 6 to 9% in Canada? Croatia with very few resources, corrupt government regime, a culture that leans heavy towards work-life balance and leisure, GDP per capita is up 75% in the last 10 years and climbing.
You could say Croatia started with a low baseline but even Germany is up 25% over the last 10 years with all the issues they’ve been dealing with.
So if you can’t grow per capita GDP the other way to grow it is through immigration.
Victoria doesn’t rank high when it comes to attracting new immigrants. It falls well below cities like Surrey, Burnaby, and Richmond, which receive the majority of newcomers in BC. In fact, BC currently has the highest population loss in Canada, and the BC cities seeing the biggest outflow are Victoria, followed by Kelowna.
Despite that, home prices haven’t dropped much. That’s because most of the demand in Victoria’s housing market comes from local buyers, not new immigrants. Local income levels, retirees, and people relocating from other BC cities continue to drive the market, keeping prices relatively stable even as population numbers decline.
The biggest long‑term risk is the steady loss of young adults who would normally rent or buy their first home. That group typically enters the market through older studio or one‑bedroom condos, and when they leave the region, demand for those entry‑level units weakens.
Government incentives that push first‑time buyers toward new construction are also weakening this segment of the market. By steering entry‑level buyers away from older studios and one‑bedroom condos—the traditional starting point for young adults—it further depresses demand for those units.
That should be good news for investors looking for rental properties, since lower prices usually translate into better cash flow. But despite that, I haven’t seen a wave of investors snapping up these units. The demand simply isn’t materializing the way you’d expect for older studios and one‑bedroom condos.
Population growth has stalled, but that’s a result of government policy to let less people in, not a result of a lack of people wanting to move to Canada.
Yep, we can juice immigration anytime we want , and some point we will need to . Big empty country
I thought our population growth had stalled, maybe decreased in some parts.
Agreed. Canada remains the #1 country people want to move to
https://dailyhive.com/canada/canada-move-to-destination-global
I don’t think immigration has stalled in Canada as a result of a lack of people looking to immigrate…
The Middle East and Ukraine wars are getting worse. More people seeking a safe haven will be looking to Canada for refuge. The lull may be coming to an end.
Man our deficit looks huge compared to Canada as a whole. Talk about tanking an economy , we must be running on fumes lol
Yes, she is well suited for that. Findlay was federal Minister of National Revenue in Ottawa (Harper, PC) during 2014-15. Canada had a budget surplus in both years. Then Trudeau got elected and so 2015 was the last surplus we had. Current federal deficit (Carney, Lib) -$68 billion, and BC (Eby, NDP) is -$13 billion.
Min wage will be 18.25 in a few weeks? Rent drops will bottom out soon.
Hard to believe this is the best candidate they could come up with, went bankrupt in 2001 with 175k in assets and 557k in debt. Sounds like she will be well suited to potentially run the provincial budget.
and then you have the green leader.
https://www.findlay4bc.ca/restoring_freedom_from_big_government
A mix of sound ideas and cuckoo re-litigating of Covid. They could have chosen another candidate and gotten the good ideas without the cuckoo.
KLF is probably Eby’s favorite as she will be easier than some others to scaremonger about next election. That said it’s hard to see Eby winning the next election no matter the opponent.
I think the millenials have found their housing mostly and are having kids. There’ll be some movement as they try to find ideal housing but mostly that frenzy is over. We’re locked into our 25 year mortgage servitude and child rearing roles. The next big real estate frenzy will come along in 15-20 yrs when our kids need housing since gen Z isnt a very big demographic.
Dont understand what the sales number panic is about. People always have to sell, they die or move into nursing homes (when you start visiting one you suddenly realize how many people are packed in them), they have to move for work and all the usual stuff. Maybe you dont get all the new immigration stuff and student stuff but that leaves the usual 90% of sales. I think it is mostly going to be steady from here on in and I dont see a huge dip in prices and maybe no dip for things like SFH.
May 2026 sales down less than 10% of the average in the last nine years, not too dramatic. Maybe buyers don’t like what is available.
The new tenants my property manager accepted backed out, no problem, relisted the property, three appointments and new tenants moving in July 1st. Not a mad rush but the rent is at a higher level. Must be tons of renters at the lower levels.
Good points Marko and Groot.
I think an interesting takeaway is that missing middle product is probably closer to detached than it is to condos in terms of how much it varies.
If we keep it simple and look at just one factor — square footage — Battleford is 2,223 sq ft while Dale is 1,677 sq ft. Using a hypothetical build cost of $325 per square foot, that’s about a $175,000 difference in size value alone. The real question is whether Dale’s stronger location is enough to offset that gap. In the end, it depends on what buyers in this market value more: a better location or a larger home.
We can all have our own opinions about how much the location difference is worth, but the only opinions that truly matter are those of people actively buying right now or who have recently purchased.
Fairly big difference in size 2,200 sq.ft. vs 1,673 sq.ft. and Battleford had garages (Dale has an option for surface parking, but only for two units).
You have to keep in mind we just had the slowest sales for May since 2013 (covid 2020 excluded) and quite a few missing middle properties sold from $399,900 to $2.8 million.
I think once the product finds it’s footing and the market picks up looks like missing middle product will do well.
Any idea why Battleford sold like hotcakes while 921 Dale, a comparable missing middle product (in my opinion, at least), is just sitting?
From the new B.C. conservative leader….
During her victory speech Saturday night, Kerry-Lynne Findlay promised she will stand up for “free people making free choices and free speech in a free enterprise market economy. Where hard work is rewarded, and we are not crushed by socialist overreach that wants to dictate literally what we think, what we believe, what we can say and who we associate with.”
Victoria Real Estate Board
June 1st, 2026
Month May May
Year 2026 2025
Net Unconditional Sales 713 758
New Listings 1,789 1,834
Active Listings 4,029 3,717
Slowest May since 2013 (if we exclude covid 2020), highest inventory since 2015.
May Sales
2026 – 713
2025 – 758
2024 – 763
2023 – 775
2022 – 761
2021 – 1,049
2020 – 457
2019 – 848
2018 – 755
2017 – 1,006
2016 – 1,289
2015 – 905
2014 – 714
Five years of flat now….not sure how long that will last. In the past the best opportunities to buy have been when sales volumes have been the slowest.
Well said!
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-deflating-housing-bubble-stymies-wealth-effect-booming-stock-market-2026-04-28/
The problem when excessive/complicated/nonsensical regulations, high taxes and the stop everything crowd kills productivity and investment.
In a Court‑Ordered Sale, the Justice of the Supreme Court of British Columbia may decline to approve an offer for a variety of reasons. Even when the lender supports the sale, the Justice can still refuse it because their role is to ensure the process is fair and transparent for all parties involved.
I’ve attended hearings where there was only a single offer, and others where the small courtroom was so crowded with bidders that people were lined up outside the door. The level of interest can vary dramatically from case to case.
Generally, prospective buyers should not expect to get a “deal” on a Court‑Ordered Sale. Properties are typically exposed to the open market, competing bidders often appear in court, and the Justice will not approve a sale that is significantly below fair market value.
Long story short a court date is set when the accepted offer removes their conditions (other than court approval). If no one shows up to court to submit a competing bid it goes to the first offer. That being said I’ve never been to court where another party or multiple parties didn’t show up to submit bids (which have to be unconditional with a deposit attached).
Also, the first accepted offer that triggers the court date the amount of the offer amount is made public (people showing up on the court date are going to bid higher than that amount).
Bidding is blind. I once saw someone pay 140k more than the next best offer (judge opens all the envelopes and goes through the terms of each offer).
Not familiar with court foreclosures. So the accepted offer can still be turned down? Or was it conditional only if they don’t get something better during the bid?
Buyer had an accepted offer at $1,241,000 but this was a court foreclosure and it got bid up in court like it pretty much always does.
I’ve now been to court 25+ times with clients and have yet to see a deal. I’ve certainly seen a lot of buyers pay over market value in court.
Lol, Ya too funny , must not be a lot of room on that fence . Like sheep they will all jump off after prices start going up
Lol 25 tuzo court goes over ask after months in the market at that price. Buyer could have just offered ask couple weeks ago and it would have been accepted. But of course had to sit on the sidelines until a competing offer came.
It really going to depend on what type of property and the seller’s circumstances. If the property is priced well all the agent has to do is drop the ask by a couple of percentages and buyer’s will show up.
So how are you going to sweeten the pot for the sellers to take your low ball offer? Would you make your deposit non-refundable? Assume their mortgage if it’s possible? Flexible closing date? Seller rent-back? Offer to buy “As Is”?
If you want a seller in Victoria to accept a low‑ball offer, you need to think in terms of solving their problem, not just throwing random sweeteners at them.
Mid summer stale listings, fewer buyers, fewer offers and looking at a continuing down cycle with no interest rate relief in sight. Price adjustments are occuring with many cancellations and relists. Focus on must sells that are estate sales or just vacant likely making them vulnerable to a low-ball offer. Come in unconditional with a 10% deposit on the table and it will not be ignored. What agents and sellers think of you is irrelevant, it’s just money and ease of transaction in the end.
Roger, the answer is in what you quoted back.
Around one in five rental listings on Rentals.ca now offers some form of incentive, including free rent, reduced parking fees, internet packages, gift cards and cash bonuses, a new report from Rentals.ca and Urbanation shows.
Before reducing the base rent, landlords will offer incentives. Some of the rentals in older Victoria apartments now offer free parking and $150 laundry cards. A potential savings on the first year for the new tenant of between $650 to $750.
Incentives are a way to protect the advertised rent. Dropping the base rent can affect future rent‑increase calculations and building valuations, so landlords prefer to sweeten the deal instead.
Are you saying asking price is the same as market price?
In a balanced market, a low ball offer signals that you’re not a serious buyer. A low number without justification (repairs, comps, market data) reads as ignorance rather than strategy.
Offers more than ~10% below asking rarely start a productive negotiation. Instead, they often lead to:
-No counteroffer
-Being ignored
-Losing the property to a more realistic buyer
That make your agent’s job harder. They only get paid when a deal closes, and unrealistic offers rarely get anywhere.
You’ll need to be more creative in your offer rather than throwing in a low price.
More splashy headlines. From the Statistics Canada report: On a per capita basis, real GDP increased 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026, as the population declined for a second consecutive quarter and GDP remained unchanged.
Get those end of July early August lowball offers ready folks. There will likely be some takers.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/canada-slips-into-technical-recession-as-economy-stalls-in-q1-statcan/
Single nurses buying homes and taking on one or two roommates. AI won’t be replacing them, maybe highly paid administrators should be worried.
Yup, can’t be a union drone working 35 hours a week with flex days and complaining about how they can’t afford a nice house in South oak bay to raise their family….
Gushing?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-financial-stability-9.7215056
Historically that’s true Frank. Lots of single nurses buyng homes.
Markets like Vancouver and Toronto would get hit first. Victoria would be somewhat insulated.
Groot, then u will be happy with latest boc report gushing about how well the economy is doing . Sunny days are here again
Joe, I’m not sure why you chose to compare our situation to one of the worst housing crashes in U.S. history. We don’t have 30‑year fixed mortgages, and our entire mortgage structure — from renewal terms to the absence of non‑recourse lending — works very differently from the U.S. system.
To put things in perspective, during Canada’s last recession our mortgage delinquency rate peaked at 0.65% (about 1 in 150 mortgages). Today we’re closer to 0.24% (roughly 1 in 400). That’s still low.
In a recession, what typically changes first is months of inventory (MOI). MOI has been rising over the past several years, but since 2023 it has held relatively steady around 4.6 for the last month in our CMA. That level doesn’t indicate market stress. The recent increase in delinquencies is concerning but not on its own.
So I’m updating my view: instead of “start worrying,” to “be happy”. it’s more appropriate to keep an eye on MOI. If delinquencies continue to rise, you’ll see the impact there first, as homeowners will choose to list voluntarily long before lenders step in.
https://youtube.com/shorts/ZTmYTPQ3-LQ?si=EtTPVB_Xaf-7wn-6
That’s incredibly unremarkable. Most of the last 75 years the stock market has been at or close to all time highs. Everything else has just been blips.
Ya , the economy is just humming along fine . If you’re good at what u do there’s always money to be made. Or as trump likes to say ‘ The stock market hasn’t ever been higher ‘
The percentage increase figure quoted hides the fact that the number of delinquencies is still tiny overall: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-delinquencies-up-9.7212533
In the US the rate rose to 6.58% in 2008. By comparison our delinquency rate is currently…0.22%.
This is pure performance related and target, benchmarks not being met, not directly relates to AI replacing humans. Happens from time to time.
You don’t want to be a “shovel salesman” these days.
Noticing quite a few ‘open to work’ updates from US tech space colleagues. Mass layoffs aren’t anything new, but this feels different to me.
From time to time we have spoken about the insolvency and mortgage delinquincy rates in Canada being nothing to worry about.
Start worrying.
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/05/insolvency-volumes-hit-highest-since-2009-amid-strain-among-homeowners-equifax/?utm_source=copilot.com
I guess a person has to be on the right side of AI. The ones on the wrong side will be out on the street and the ones on the right side will get richer. Isn’t that the way things work? Luckily, I’m on the fence.
Series of layoffs at my firm recently, likely to see couple of decent SFH houses come on the market in the next little while under unfortunate circumstances 🙁
I had two single buyers in their 20s purchase $629,900 and $659,900 townhomes respectively and a couple bought a brand new townhome on Shelbourne for $799,900 (has a garage) so it is possibile. For the single buyers throw a roommate into the mix and not a bad way to get into the housing market imo.
Quite a few accepted offers on missing middle projects right now. Missing middle is hanging in there despite the slow market. If the market picks up I could really see pace of the missing middle projects picking up (further straining SFH inventory as they are torn down).
Where did I say her company was US Based? Plenty of multinationals based elsewhere. Hers is EU domiciled. They aren’t going to “call her back to the office” as the nearest physical office is east coast US. And many of their new hires are remote too. Honestly, just because you are stuck in a box doesn’t mean everyone else is.
I will grant you this – most of the folks I know working good remote jobs had to toil in a box for quite a few years to get where they are now. I doubt it works so well to build a good career without ever showing up to an office.
@Marko My friend is not a first time buyer. 🙂 It would be sweet to buy the best two-bedroom unit on Allenby we viewed with no GST and PTT! (It was sold and occupied before the open house). But how many first time buyers can afford 800k+ homes? Maybe two good incomes. They are richer than I think 🙂
No PTT for all buyers on new builds only, right?
They also give money to the people your wife thinks are incompetent so there’s that too. Bottom line is that these high paying remote jobs for u.s companies are very few and far between now. Everyone knows that and that’s why most people get so upset when they get called back to the office.
I have no idea what they think in their heart of hearts. But they keep giving her more money That’s my clue.
If Marko read my posts he would have known that five days ago. Besides the GST and PTT there are additional programs such as the FHSA, and the HBP.
And it is good news for all of you wannabee investors wanting neutral / positive cash flow. An updated 550 square foot one-bedroom just sold for $295,000 on View Street.
There is a GST rebate for first time buyers and no PTT for all buyers (that are moving in to live). It has definitively helped in slowly absorbing inventory of new builds. I’ve now had 7 first time buyers go for new builds because of the GST rebate. My guess is 5 or 6 would have bought re-sale without the GST rebate. It’s a pretty decent chunk of money.
@Marko My friend and I went to see the pre-construction two-bedroom unit on Allenby, and I went to their open house recently. The design and quality are exceptional in my opinion. The bedrooms are relatively small, but there is enough space for two people, even with a kid, or work-from-home office space.
The drawback is the price is too high with GST and no parking. My friend might have bought it if there is no GST.
4 days a week absolutely.
Seems like an inevitability IMO – just a question of when.
The biggest challenge companies face with remote work is training and mentoring new employees. Developing new talent takes time, and many senior staff working from home simply don’t have the desire — to take it on.
At first, this doesn’t create obvious problems. But as experienced employees retire or leave, organizations begin to lose critical knowledge. Without a structured way to train new hires in house, capabilities erode, and the company slowly becomes less effective.
I saw this firsthand. A colleague of mine was a Native Land specialist who worked from home. When he retired early, the company had no one prepared to replace him — and they ultimately lost their government contract because that expertise disappeared overnight.
Remote work isn’t just a communication challenge. It’s a serious continuity risk when companies don’t invest in proper training, documentation, and knowledge transfer.
How do we know your wife isn’t the actual incompetent one?
Well they can suck it up or get a new job if they have to go back to the office.
They spent hours in traffic. Thats why i said, for those people, its a benefit.
Tell that one to my wife as she deals with some incompetent US colleagues. In her company the Americans talk big, put in long hours, but avoid actually getting much work done. Canadians, Brits and Eastern Europeans actually get the work done
The option to do either is a pretty big benefit to do some. Public Sector unions are being a bit two-faced about it. Many of their members want it, but the unions don’t want it to seem like a benefit, otherwise government could argue a reduction in other benefits (like salary)
Fully remote work for an out of town multi-national can be a bit isolating. You definitely have to cultivate your away from work social life….
It’s mostly gone now btw. mostly SMEs with substantial leverage doing this and they are few and far in between and definitely do not represent your typical government worker.
Doesn’t work like that in real life when U.S employers are mandating return to office. Typical general perception of Canadian workers by US companies are that they are not that competent or hard working as hard working and capable ones already relocated to the US.
if you scratch the surface Victoria is thick with remote private sector workers doing all kinds of knowledge based work. Canada has a well educated population that are fluent in the international language of business and we are “low cost” compared to the US. You can hire the same scientist or engineer in Canada and pay them 70% of what they’d make in the US plus paying way less for health insurance.
Some of these government types are delusional….
Was thinking the same thing . I guess work is more of an inconvenience now ( just kidding)
So what did people do before covid?
Most private sector is back to min. 4 days a week in the office and many government agencies are also (Federal gov, city of vancouver). There are senior level advocates for the same to be applicable to the core BC Provincial government but so far Eby has resisted in pulling the trigger, but other BC provincial crown corps are implementing this. IMO he will cave eventually.
Another missing middle sale at 1830 Allenby. 2 bed unit with no parking at $820,000.
Given how slow the overall market it missing middle is finding some footing in terms of sales.
Is it still a thing in the private sector or mostly government workers . I’m guessing working from home is pretty ingrained
I would say its one of the bigger benefits in government, particularly if you live far from the office. Imagine living in Westshore and having to drive an hour or so each way every day and then suddenly not having to do it. 2 extra hours a day to spend with your friends/family or whatever you want. Not to mention on your lunch break you can cook /clean etc which also frees up time. Its a pretty big benefit for some.
Don’t really know or care, but is working from the office or home a big deal
Where are the metal roofs and solar panels on all these multi plexes? Should be mandatory on new builds.
Nope, some crowns got the order now.
You have been wrongly predicting back to the office for the provincial civil service for several years now. You may be wishcasting if you are stuck in a crappy box somewhere.
Fact – province still shedding real estate. Head of the public service super committed to remote work options.
Prediction: No broad back to the office mandate till a new government comes in. Of course when a new government comes in they could easily use a back to the office mandate to encourage a thinning of the ranks.
Meanwhile lots of nice houses in diserable neighborhoods are trending higher….
Victoria Real Estate Board
May 25th, 2026
Month May May
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 548 758
New Listings 1,363 1,834
Active Listings 3,943 3,717
Looks like we will finish the month around 720 to 730 sales. Other than last month being one sale higher YOY the lower YOY sale trend continues. Unless something changes in June looks like we are headed towards a 5th year of less than 7,000 sales. Will be tough to make up the sales in the second half of the year.
Also, looks for the first time 12 years we will hit 4,000 sales by next Monday.
Middle‑missing initiatives are designed for households who earn too much to qualify for traditional subsidies but not enough to compete in a high‑cost housing market. These programs are intentionally focused on moderate‑income families who lack attainable options, not on high‑income earners who already have full access to the private market.
For that reason, townhome developments marketed to high‑income buyers should not be labeled as middle‑missing housing. These projects represent conspicuous consumption by a small group of affluent purchasers and fall entirely outside the purpose and scope of middle‑missing policy.
I want to clarify this point because some groups may point to these high‑end projects as supposed examples of government failure or “housing for the wealthy.” In reality, they are simply luxury developments and have no connection to middle‑missing initiatives.
One of the missing middle units at 3024 Cadboro Bay Rd has sold for $2,322,600. 3 of 4 have sold over $2.7 million at the 10 Mile Point missing middle project. We have the Oakdowne missing middle penthouse sale at $2,467,500.
Just one traditional strata condo sale over $2,000,000 in the last 30 days at $2,050,000 on Warf St.
It would appear that there is a market for the north of 2 million missing middle product, I am guessing downsizers/retires.
Why would someone build units that are not going to sell?
Housing starts for April -> https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/New-Homes-Registry-Report-April-2026.pdf
SFH starts substantially lower YTD (and that is from a record low last year)
Strata starts will be lowest since 2009 (financial crash)
Rental starts holding flat
Nice. Not surprising, SFH rentals in Oak Bay are scarce. And “rentable” SFH are being torn down to build expensive missing middle.
The house was nice (bigger than I need), loved the lot, at the real upper edge of my budget. Not sure but the roof looked older. The windows seemed to all be from 1989 when the house was built. The heat was baseboard which I hear is okay as long as you keep the temperature down. Really like the location. Need to take a second look. Lots of great views.
Some provincial crown corps are going back to the office 4 days a week now. Expect broader government to implement this for those ministries with adequate space after the summer.
Some provincial crown corps are going to 4 days a week in office now. Expect core government to start following after the summer for ministries with enough space.
Thanks Peter, there is an open house tomorrow and I will update you as to how it goes. I cant imagine coming into Victoria more than once a month so that is not a problem. For day to day things Sidney has just about all I need. I work a lot from home but also travel for work regularly so close to airport is good. Thanks for the responce by the way.
Lots of nurses here.
My nephew confirms this phenomenon works in both directions. He says the dating pool for women in Victoria is comprised of servers, administrative assistants, etc. but that in Vancouver he is matching with doctors, dentists, and other highly successful women.
This makes zero sense, unless the guy already owns it is much easier to find a partner and to be able to buy a decent house in a diserable neighborhood in Victoria than Vancouver. You are looking at $1.8M vs $3M and the wage discrepancy between the two cities won’t come close to bridging that gap.
I personally think its a fictional story made up by Frank, no different than his twin brother Barrister. Who knows, they can be the same person…
Buying a house in Victoria doesn’t start with mortgage pre‑approval — it starts with finding a partner under 30, child‑free, and making at least $80K.
~~~
at least 6 35(+-)-yr- old females working professionals are single, and pushing close to 150k. They have moved to yvr in the last 3 yrs hoping to find more competent guys to date/marry… so far they are more into 40yrs(+-) single guy with kids and hoping to settle and have kids soon and brought apartments themselves in YVR. UVic Alumni Association has some quite close friends/circles that they share what everyone is up to… Their feedback about YYJ housing is that they need competent guys to hang out….they wanted to live in YYJ but just lack of opportunities to find the right guys to start a family…
OWT- The old rent was $4250, new rent is $4850. I have nothing to do with it , I leave it totally in the hands of my property manager. The more I get, the more they get. It’s called capitalism. My new tenants combined income is over 300 gs. Must be tons of money floating around Victoria, guess that’s why the restaurants are so busy. Money attracts money.
We don’t live right there but close by. No, snow is not an issue. It’s a nice place to live, and pretty friendly people here. You just need to be ok with the trade-offs living all the way out here. In other words, the quality of what you get & price paid has to be worth giving up the proximity to Victoria. For us, we would (and did) do it to get something really special. And you quickly adapt to whatever neighbourhood you live in anyways. When we moved here, we said ok we’ll go into Victoria twice a week to go to nicer restaurants, etc., but very quickly we just decided once a week is plenty. Sidney is close by and is pretty nice. The proximity to YYJ, the ferries and the marina turns out to be highly useful for us. We get quite a few visitors who walk on the ferry for a day trip & we pick them up in 5 minutes.
Driving into Victoria is no problem so long as you time it to avoid the ferry traffic – but you had better get that right.
Again, I’d come up here to get something special at a reasonable price. An ordinary house at a so-so price, probably not. Just my own outlook on this.
I’m not up on current rules, but when we last rented out a house (also in North Oak Bay as it happens), tenants on a 1-year lease could, and did, break the lease without consequence after 6 months provided another tenant is found. So maybe not that much of a commitment really?
The issue we had with renting out SFH was that it was pretty much just for people in transition and such there was yearly turnover. Probably a different market now with longer-term renters I guess. Either way, it was a great investment.
Finding this inscrutable, Frank. $4250 was the rent this time or last time?
SFH rentals are few and far between, not surprised it went quickly.
A hundred and sixteen grand, more than a third of what I originally paid. Ain’t life grand. I also let my property manager know that I would be flexible in holding them to the full year, I’m not an asshole. They can pay me a couple months rent to leave early, or zero penalty if given ample notice. If they buy a tenanted property possession won’t be for months. Or they can give me a couple mil and stay put.
Well I’m guessing like lots folks out there ,!they are timing the market . I bet they rent franks house for 2 years and give Frank a 100 grand just waiting for the bottom that never comes .
Why would someone looking to buy sign a one year lease for a rental……..
Just heard from my property manager, we rented my property in North Oak Bay as the tenants were leaving, Had 4 parties show up for the viewing. Got one application from a professional couple who recently sold their property in Cobble Hill and are going to purchase in Victoria. Lots of inquiries from groups of students looking for a place, I would never rent to them. Got $4850 on a one year lease. Similar interest from a year and a half ago, not quite the flood of emails, but was less rent, $4250. SFH is alive and well.
Anybody familiar with Greenpark Drive in North Saanich, is that a good neighborhood? There is a house up there forsale, anyone know anything good or bad? Stupid question but do they get more snow up there on the hill?
What could this mean for investors looking to buy an existing downtown condo rental?
If these government programs are scaled back or removed in the future, the advantage currently enjoyed by new builds disappears. At that point, the pricing pressure on older downtown units could ease, and the discount investors are seeing today may not last.
In other words, the softness in older strata values isn’t structural — it’s policy‑driven. When the policy environment changes, pricing dynamics can shift with it.
We’re sitting right on the edge between a buyer’s market and a balanced one. There are simply fewer active buyers right now, which means more listings are competing for the same pool of people.
Now that you’ve seen how today’s incentives — GST and PTT exemptions, the FHSA, and the HBP — can make a newer, more expensive strata actually cheaper on a monthly basis than an older condo, the current market behaviour makes a lot more sense.
Older downtown condos, especially those without parking, are getting hit the hardest. With buyers able to access major tax savings on new construction, the value gap has flipped: newer homes cost less per month, while older units offer no incentives and higher carrying costs.
The result is exactly what we’re seeing today:
low to no showings on older downtown inventory, while newer buildings continue to draw the remaining qualified buyers.
If you’re a first‑time home buyer, there are several major government incentives and rebates available today that simply didn’t exist a year ago. Between the GST exemption, PTT exemptions, the FHSA, and the HBP, qualified buyers can dramatically reduce both their upfront costs and their monthly payments.
For couples who fully qualify, these programs can drop the mortgage payment well below the cost of renting the same two‑bedroom unit — something that wasn’t possible under last year’s rules.
Because the largest incentives apply specifically to newly built homes, it often makes more financial sense to purchase a higher‑quality new suite rather than an older condominium at a lower price. The savings from GST and PTT exemptions, combined with tax‑advantaged down‑payment programs, can more than offset the difference in purchase price.
Lower floor unit at 95 Battleford just went pending as well and over asking price even when you factor in GST. Battleford is going to be the quickest multiplex to sell out since missing middle came to be. Who would have thought in that spot.
921 Dale just relisted for $75k less. Wonder if Battleford has started a missing middle chain reaction.
1.2m should be doable for 200k house hold income.
A 3 bed 3 bath in good condition though? Most of what’s available under the 1mm mark right now seems to be pretty poor.
Whole foods is a nice sanctuary from the slum downstairs otherwise known as Walmart.
That’s why Im dating your mother, son.
I would say 2 working professionals will be over 200k now days. They can get into a SFH.
Buying a house in Victoria doesn’t start with mortgage pre‑approval — it starts with finding a partner under 30, child‑free, and making at least $80K.
If you’re single, Whole Foods is probably your most efficient scouting location. If their basket only has enough food for one and they meet the other criteria, congratulations: you may have found your unicorn.
And don’t stress about “forever.” Just like a starter home, a starter partner can be… upgraded once the home equity builds.
Makes sense. If you are, for instance, two working professionals making ~$80-90k each, $900k can be a bright line in terms of affordability.
Price adjustment on these -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29767753/3-621-broadway-st-saanich-glanford
I imagine now under $1 million these will move.
and they’ve listed the last unit left here at $2.7 million -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29769325/3-2737-tudor-ave-saanich-ten-mile-point
I think maybe a better (superior) comparable is Ash, not Cedar Hill. A lot of these missing middle sales (3 out of 4 sold on Whiteside and these two sold on Battleford) are proving price point is sensitive.
That’s a fair point Groot. They are significantly larger.
Joe, when you’re used to living in a single‑family home, a difference of 100 or even 200 square feet doesn’t feel like much. But in a strata, that amount of space becomes far more noticeable and can really change how the home functions.
The homes on Cedar Hill are roughly 1,500 square feet, while the Battleford units are closer to 2,200 square feet. That extra space makes a meaningful difference in day‑to‑day comfort, storage, and overall livability.
I recently spoke with a prospective buyer who was interested in one of the smaller units at Battleford. He’s a 27‑year‑old manager earning around $100K a year, currently renting a one‑bedroom in Langford. He owns a mid‑1980s condo in Kamloops that he’s been renting out, but he’d need to sell it before purchasing anything new.
His main motivation for looking at Battleford was the price point and the opportunity to live closer to his job in Saanich. Although the two‑bedroom unit is similar in size to his current rental, he liked that the second bedroom could function as a home office and extra storage.
His two concerns were selling the Kamloops condo and parking, as he has a nice car and wants secure parking. He’s decided to sell the condo first and then look for a place closer to town once he’s in a better position to move forward.
As far as I can tell, the lower unit also opens onto the backyard, so it is shared between the two units. I am further mystified that these sold so quickly.
That was me, and I was proven wrong with extreme prejudice. Any idea as to why this moved so quickly but seemingly identical product at 3907 Cedar Hill Road is just sitting?
Looks like both of those units come with a garage and decent sized fenced private outdoor space? IMO those are must have features to make missing middle attractive. Lol the one with the tree in the yard sold for 10k less, wonder if it would cost less than 10k to try and take that tree down?
Mcbriar sitting too
Really interesting how price sensitive missing middle can be. Battleford both uppers sell for 900 and 910k (and they have a unit below them) and the Ash Rd units (without a unit below them, straight up townhome style) sitting at $1,075,000.
Victoria Real Estate Board
May 18 2026
Month May May
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 378 758
New Listings 965 1,834
Active Listings 3,863 3,717
Looks like we are on pace for 700 sales +/- and it looks like there is a chance we hit 4000 listings by the end of the month (that would be the first time 12 years we’ve hit 4000).
No, the two uppers sold for 900 and 910k. The lower condo style units still showing as available.
Absolutly price point matters.
Take an imperfect analogy: imagine two identical multiplexes. One sits in an area of mostly starter homes; the other is in a middle‑ to upper‑middle‑income neighbourhood. Even though the buildings are the same, they’ll sell for very different prices because the surrounding market supports different rents, and different buyer expectations.
At the end of the day, it comes down to what alternative property choices people have in each neighbourhood. The surrounding housing stock sets the reference point. In an area full of starter homes, buyers anchor their expectations to starter‑home pricing. In a middle‑ or upper‑middle‑income neighbourhood, the alternatives are more expensive, so the same multiplex gets valued through a completely different lens.
The “missing middle” isn’t primarily about income levels — it’s about adding more types of housing within a neighbourhood. When you build a wider range of homes, you give people more ways to live in the neighbourhood that fits their stage of life, household size, and preferences.
Do you mean sub 500k?
Two pending sales (one over asking price) in the multi-plex at 95 Battleford someone commented on why would you build there. Price point matters it would appear. I’ve been questioning why a couple of the missing middle developers are buying teardowns in less than prime locations but it looks like the formula works in terms of being sub one million.
Lmao bc hydro changing the rules on solar roofs. Payback math destroyed now
I’ve never actually read the Broadmead covenant myself, but like most people I’ve always heard that secondary suites aren’t allowed. That said, I’ve been inside plenty of Broadmead homes that do have basement suites. In reality, a covenant is only as strong as the willingness to enforce it.
As more homeowners in Broadmead add suites, the motivation to enforce the restriction drops. If you have a suite, you’re not likely to complain about someone else’s. And if several neighbours have them, nobody wants to start a chain reaction. BARA also has to consider the cost and backlash — enforcing the no‑suite rule could trigger challenges from dozens of homeowners, which would be expensive and politically messy.
Right now, the odds of seeing multiplexes in Broadmead are low. But neighbourhoods evolve, and as the number of suites grows and enforcement fades, the long‑term picture could look very different.
Right. Like when overruling one covenant they saw language like there can be a building for one family and interpreted that as “confusing” so ruled that a multi-plex would work, because each of the units is for one family, and it’s still only one building.
Never underestimate the creativity of judges.
Loo bc hydro just changed the solar generation economics. Good luck to those who installed solar in their house.
Haven’t seen the sfh language in dean park but the languge applicable to my parent’s house in broadmead is pretty black and white.
The SFH language is pretty black and white for broadmead
If it is a height covenant, for example, 100% you will lose. For example, there is a block of Warren Gardens in Fairfield where all the houses on the south side of the street have a height covenant. That is a very clear-cut covenant not open to interpretation.
Other covenants are more open to interpretation and courts will have to decide.
Even without the covenant no one would have tried anyway. You don’t see people tearing down houses on Bear Mountain to build multi-plexes. The economics of Broadmead/Dean Park don’t work for missing middle. The homes are too expensive, too many bylaw protected trees (huge killer for missing middle projects), and not enough easy to build on topography lots. I spent a couple of years looking for a flat lot with no trees on it and that way across a wide area.
You also have 2 extra years to build a financial buffer against the higher rates
Ok but if you go to court trying to build a multiplex and you almost certainly will have all the neighbors against you which will pretty much guarantee you losing the case. There’s a reason why no one has tried this in broadmead or dean park yet but oak bay seems to be open season.
But you can be ensured that no mom and pop developer will go through a legal battle trying to get a covenant removed to build a multiplex.
The 5 yr fixed only reduces interest rate risk for two years. If rates go up and stay up you’ll be caught at the 5 yr mark anyway.
I went to a legal update course this week and the lawyer who was in the know noted definitively do not advise clients that a covenant such as “single family home only” will ensure there is no multiplex built next to them. Especially if a private covenant which most are.
I recently dealt with a covenant that said no commercial activity (intent was no commercial farming) and it was from 1912. How do you enforce that? The definition of commercial activity in 1912 is totally different from what it is today.
Yes they are all four unit stratas. These are not subdivided lots with duplexes on them. They are four unit stratas under Bill 44 with two structures in the form of duplex.
4th paragraph, last sentence.
Read again…
Where are you seeing that? The link you posted doesn’t indicate that.
One of the advantages of the longer term is that it gives you a longer time to not think about your mortgage.
That advantage is valuable, albeit hard to quantify.
100%. I think damage control is the new motivating ideology for this government.
Well that would apply to British Properties too then…. Not sure if they have the will for that fight even if everything else was going well for them.
I think they’ve learned their lesson about messing with property rights and don’t expect them to do anything remotely controversial and start new fires until after the election (should they win again) as they have many existing ones to put out.
How do you apply covenants if private titles in BC end up getting invalidated?
Right. So far, so good. But I don’t think the BC gov’t cares much about property rights. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them enact legislation to remove covenants. And then they’d be happy to see Broadmead getting a few weird 6 plexes with street parking.
No, the province confirmed bill 44 does not over ride these covenants (https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/articles/2025/march/27/restrictive-covenants). Both Broadmead and Dean Park have pretty well organized neighborhood associations with many current and retired legal professionals, I suspect if a developer tried to take a run at it the neighborhood associations will organize legal defense as a group to avoid any precedence that can be used later on lots adjacent to them.
I wonder if Bill 44 would override the covenants in Broadmead? Probably. And I imagine you would need a neighbour to spend the money to actually go to BC Supreme Court to stop it.
On another note, I am curious about the market, Marko, as you mentioned in Rockland re: deals. Has there been a market shift where big old mansions on larger lots are less in demand? Any reason for the trend? Is this just in Rockland? How does the price point for these in Rockland compare to the rough equivalent in Oak Bay, Uplands or say in Ten Mile Point/Queenswood? Rockland seems more relaxed about multiple units on these lots as we see single homes having 8 units in some cases so would have thought that would be more expensive. Thank you for your insight!
The cat is out of the bag. Trump’s insider trading with buying and selling before daily posts, which affect these companies have resulted in significant profits for his dumb children.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/trump-stock-trade-tech-oge.html
Bill 44 overrides local exclusionary zoning. No need to go through a rezoning process. For example the Tudor property is still zoned RS16. Before Bill 44, the developer would have had to have the property rezoned.
If your lot is a typical single‑family or duplex parcel inside an urban containment boundary, you can now build a triplex, fourplex, or six‑plex without rezoning.
No but locking in for longer gives you more time to both pay down principal and build up a cushion in the event you are renewing into higher rates. Downside is minimal if the rates are similar and you don’t intend to sell without porting the mortgage.
It’s always going to be a tradeoff between certainty and the potential for a lower rate in the future. Anybody that tells you mortgage rates will be higher or lower in 3 to 5 years is a liar. There is absolutely no way of knowing.
Interested in the blogs opinion on mtg renewal terms. What are the thoughts on fixed rate product terms 3 yr vs 5 yr. Leaning towards the 3 yr. My hope is on fixed rates possibly coming down some over a 3 yr period.
It’s kind of funny how quickly folks have forgotten about how difficult (impossible) it was to build any multi-unit project prior to the legislative changes.
I think reminiscing about the “good old days” where things just “worked” (even though they didn’t) is a product of age.
I would bet that it is just treated like a 4 unit strata. The strata council (consisting of the 4 owners) likely decides all these things.
It’s a four-unit strata in the form of two duplexes. It would have required a re-zoning to a four-unit strata which would have never been approved.
I see this is a difficult concept for you grasp. Think of it this way. How many 20- or 40-unit townhome complexes have you seen in the form of one structure? They are usually split into blocks of units, and this is no different in that four strata units are split into two structures.
Before missing middle there was a duplex approved in Oak Bay at the corner of Cadboro Bay and Estevan Ave. It was the first duplex approved in 30 years (as of 2019) and it took four years. Imagine trying to get a fourplex approved in Oak Bay on a SFH before Bill 44 if they approved one duplex in 30 years and on a busy corner. Saanich Saanich was not better -> https://cheknews.ca/saanich-company-fed-red-tape-permit-delays-289374/
“In response to the situation at hand, a Saanich spokesperson sent CHEK News this statement: “Saanich is committed to processing re-zoning and development applications as quickly as possible… There was a greater amount of public consultation on this file… due to the complexity of the project and concerns raised by neighbours.”
Duplex on that lot would have been no problem with the neighbors or Saanich.
Inherited what you want to know is under 72(2) of the Strata property Act
https://www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/document/id/complete/statreg/98043_00
Predictive skill for El Niño is not good till later in the year. Still wouldn’t be shocker to have two bad years in a row. It’s happened before and tanked the market.
20 properties for sale there now. Peaked above 90 in 2014.
What happens there when skiing is no longer viable. It’s still nice place.
Good thing you have narrowed your search area LOL. And either a rooming house in Rockland or a palace on Mount Metchosin
Actually a couple of the duplexs look really interesting. Can someone explain how the strata on this buildings work in terms of the outside of the building. I know that in a highrise condo building the outside is controled by the strata. As a stupid example can I paint the outside of my unit pink and who desides when the roof needs to be redone? The building is a duplex but is the strata all the buildings or just the two owners of the building? it seems like there is four units (two duplexs) on the one lot. Anyway I am going to go see a couple of them this week if it can be arranged so guess I will see what they tell me.
No, it wouldn’t have as it would have required a SFH in Ten Mile Point to be re-zoned to a four unit strata….good luck with that and neighbour opposition.
Bill 44 allows four units (it doesn’t not restrict those four units from being in the form of duplexes). Literally a ton of examples of such Bill 44 duplex bylaw projects on MLS
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29755258/1-920-island-rd-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29375306/3-5032-wesley-rd-saanich-cordova-bay
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29749849/2-3024-cadboro-bay-rd-oak-bay-henderson
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29298171/4-2215-greenlands-rd-saanich-arbutus
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29408878/4-1118-munro-st-esquimalt-saxe-point
etc.
Listing clearly says duplex….. This product would have gone forward without bill 44.
Another missing middle sale on Tudor at $2.7 million+GST. Looks like they’ve sold 3/4 now.
Hmmm, I was thinking about taking advantage of a soft market at Mt Washington this year, but maybe I will gamble on a non-opening upcoming ski season and see if it drives prices down even further.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/what-could-a-supercharged-el-nino-mean-for-canada/
It looks like it used to be a house.
8 suites is not a house, it’s an apartment.
Noticed a new listing on Rockland for a 8 suite big house for only about 2.6 mil. Past my budget but that seems like a pretty good deal for someone. Wonder if there is a lot of maintaince on the property? Considering it seems like a good neighbourhood the prices seem like reasonable.
No way I would want a big house and unless I win a lottery it is out of my price range. But I am starting to think that the right type of townhouse might be a good idea. People on here seem to think it is.
Grandma is planning on selling the Rockland house but things are up in the air after grand dads second stroke. I suspect that she does not want to deal with anything until he passes and he has surprised us all so far. I have no idea about it but guessing she will just rely on asking a couple of Real Estate agents when the time comes. Makes you think I guess.
Looks like it had 2 of the big 3 checked off: main level living and private outdoor space. Was there a garage too?
Have you looked at Rockland? The larger mansions on big lots are dropping, some great deals for buyers.
Right. The drop in population was all a drop in numbers of foreign workers and students.
There was the usual 400,000 or so immigrants that came into Canada. And births were equal to deaths so that didn’t change population.
Patrick, not noticing any price drops, wish there was. Had been looking in Sooke ay one point but trying to see if there is anything in the Sidney area.Basically you are saying that the headline I saw in Thriftys was misleading because it had to do with students.
I also like Dean Park but not sure the right one has come up.
Missing middle townhome sale in Oak Bay for $1,575,000 (1,355 sq.ft.). $1,144 per foot not too bad.
Living space comes at a premium. What if one of your close neighbors in a multi plex enjoys toking every day and you have to live with that stench. And there’s nothing you can do about it.
Another one, 987 mcbriar just sold 300k over assessed. Another nice property in a so so neighborhood directly across from the new multiplex. Looks like these houses with private nature feel backyards in the core seem to command a premium.
Over priced stale listing of a unattractive product.
What’s the story on 135 Passmore?
Hey Barrister, nice to see that you’re still old school, and are still reading “the paper”. And yes it’s true that BC lost a little population when we kicked out the foreign students and their big $$ tuition payments. We apparently don’t need that foreign cash windfall , despite a $13.3 billion BC deficit. And we sent some minimum wage foreign workers packing too. You may have noticed longer lines and higher fruit/vegetable prices because of that.
Are you noticing price drops in any areas on the homes you’re (pretending to be ) looking at?
Leo, that link in the mail your friend got is a a broken link, and looks like the same for the website domain.
Interesting that the link is supposed to teach us something about small-scale multi housing. And so Leo, what can we learn about “small-scale multi unit housing” development by a broken link and website? hmmmm…
Anyone with a LinkedIn account is questionable. It’s basically the the Amway of social media for people that course that told them this is how you connect in the business community, but just ends up spamming your contacts and irritating them until they block you.
Did I read in the paper a while back that BC is losing population or is that one of those misleading headlines?
Been looking outside of the city and things sure are not cheap right now.
Guy’s LinkedIn is questionable at best for what he is trying to market, zero faith in him to run the deal or project effectively.
Interesting letter. I think it’s good that somebody is thinking a bit outside the box, shows initiative.
Now this part about generating cash without selling is probably a bit misleading? I mean, when he talks about the homeowner getting a nice lump sum when it’s all done, well, usually you don’t get a nice lump sum without selling something, say on subdivision & sale. Turning units into a revenue stream can be done technically without selling, though there is a deemed disposition for tax purposes (which should be tax-free, and can also be deferred if required), though it begs the question of how the developer gets paid in that scenario.
I do think it’s interesting.
This must be the best sale of a COVID peak purchase. 1542 Athlone dr. Sold for 1.94M or 500k more than the October 2021 purchase, zero renos done. Property and house looks nice, neighborhood is so so. Nice move-in ready houses in the core are not showing weaknesses at all with this one and 5011 Hilarie leading the way fetching prices significantly higher than COVID peak!
“nobody that purchased a home after I did should have a place to live”
Frank, did you build a lot of model airplanes and cars with glue as a kid?
It’s called social engineering. Overpopulate the country then coerce people into densification of their community. I don’t want to live on top of somebody, I don’t want to share a wall with somebody. Didn’t we learn anything from the plandemic, it’s not healthy cramming people into small spaces.
Letter our friends got in the mailbox..
Monith Developments, Inc
Socially Responsible Real Estate Development
RE: Generate Cash or Tap Equity without Selling
Dear Homeowner,
You may be aware of Bill 44: Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing which came into effect on 01 July 2024. I’m writing to you because I think your home, and the lot on which it sits, is well suited to take advantage of the development potential available because of this legislation.
I’d like to chat with you about the small-scale development potential of your home. It could be a couple garden suites in your backyard or the construction of a modern energy efficient four-plex – and you could move back into one of the brand new units. Your unit would be as big as your current home, and you would have no more mortgage than you have right now.
At the end of it all – a year or year-and-a-half – you’d get a nice lump sum or a steady new revenue stream. Let me help you take advantage of this new opportunity that the Province has created for you. I will guide you through the design phase, the permitting process, and oversee construction right until you move back into your brand-new home with more cash in your pocket.
Do you need assistance securing temporary housing while your current house is replaced with an energy-efficient home? Don’t let that be an obstacle; I can finance your temporary stay in a rental house during construction. Call or email now to get more information.
I’ve developed an expertise in interpreting the new provincially mandated legislation. Read more about Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing by typing this url into your browser: https://monith.ca/small-scale-multi-unit-housing
I work only on developments within the scope of the new provincially mandated legislation, whic eliminates the need for variances. Call or email to discuss how I can help you.
Warm Regards
– David
Building missing‑middle housing in Victoria remains a challenge. Developers are still trying to read an evolving market, and aligning new housing forms with actual demand has proven difficult. It’s a genuine learning curve for the industry as it adapts to new expectations, new zoning, and new economic realities.
As land prices soften, though, the equation starts to shift. Lower land costs open up more viable options for builders: instead of cramming one‑bedroom condos onto a site to satisfy absentee investors and empty nesters, developers can reduce unit counts and increase unit sizes. That allows them to deliver homes that better match the needs of local neighbourhood markets — more family‑sized units, more ground‑oriented options, and more housing that people here actually want to live in.
Private investors re‑entering the market is a measurable early indicator of stabilization during a decline. A $30 million inflow is not large enough to influence pricing directly — at Toronto’s current inventory levels, it represents only a fraction of total available supply.
Toronto is carrying roughly 10,000 active condo listings on Realtor.ca, with an average asking price of $544,000. That implies an active‑listing market value of approximately $5.4 billion. Against that backdrop, $30 million accounts for roughly 0.55% of total listed condo value, making it statistically insignificant from a liquidity or absorption standpoint.
Where it can matter is in sentiment transmission. If media coverage frames this as evidence of private‑capital re‑engagement, the perception shift may have a larger impact than the capital itself.
Private investors re‑entering the market is a measurable early indicator of stabilization during a decline. A $30 million inflow is not large enough to influence pricing directly — at Toronto’s current inventory levels, it represents only a fraction of total available supply.
Toronto is carrying roughly 10,000 active condo listings on Realtor.ca, with an average asking price of $544,000. That implies an active‑listing market value of approximately $5.4 billion. Against that backdrop, $30 million accounts for roughly 0.55% of total listed condo value, making it statistically insignificant from a liquidity or absorption standpoint.
Where it can matter is in sentiment transmission. If media coverage frames this as evidence of private‑capital re‑engagement, the perception shift may have a larger impact than the capital itself.
https://vancouversun.com/news/couple-ordered-pay-resale-loss-bc-condo-failing-close
Good to c a company buying up blocks , we need a lot more of that . Good for business
Yeah, likely some Laurier Club members that might have some insight on upcoming policy changes.
Hopefully whoever bought those was able to make it work, like 1611 Hawthorne…..
The 6 available 5 years ago were bigger shit.
That is interesting.
Also likely too shit of a location to make a new build worthwhile. So missing middle is the only potential option and most of those have been flops.
Taking a buying opportunity and then some..
https://www.ctvnews.ca/toronto/article/montreal-based-real-estate-company-buys-30-million-worth-of-condos-near-toronto-metropolitan-university/
Yep guessing pretty much lot price , and too small and not worth the effort to renovate .
All those are shit though….
89 SFH freehold homes in the core under $1 million. Highest we’ve seen in the last five years. At one point in five years ago we hit just 6 under a million.
I don’t think the buying opportunity will last forever.
Fantastic! It’s still a pretty generous program for people who need it. But it’s no longer free money.
Changes to the BC Property Tax Deferment Program are causing people to opt out.
It will be interesting to see the downstream effects on this change.
Why would a GST exception on a new condo hurt used condo sales when the GST does not apply. I’m sure used condos are less expensive than a new one. Possibly the newer condos are more what the people want vs a hotel room condo.
Are the exemptions for first time buyers buying new condominiums hurting the condominium resale market?
The short answer is – Yes
5011 Hilarie just went for $2.7M, $425k above the July 2022 sold price and assessment. Only updates done are one bathroom and addition of a prefab shed office (<100sqft). Nice houses in diserable locations are not seeing weakness.
Occasionally, but not as a general thing. Most e-bikers are fine. Just like most bikers and most drivers are also fine. I do get annoyed at ANYBODY who has no regard for others safety regardless of their mode of transportation. Since ebikes let incompetent riders go faster they are on average a bit more problematic than normal bikes. Not crazy about people riding completely illegal vehicles (e-mopeds, e-dirtbikes) on trails around town.
Meanwhile you are pissed about e bikers and e scooters ripping around you on the bike lanes without regard for your safety 🙂
Victoria Real Estate Board
May 11, 2026
Month May May
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 214 758
New Listings 564 1,834
Active Listings 3,790 3,717
Similar sales pace as last year. Will probably end the month around 3,950ish active listings.
It’s hard to know what I like more about bike lanes – riding in safety, or triggering the right wingers.
There may be a future use for those bike lanes. Autonomous delivery bots.
https://youtu.be/NhCwv7CF87E?si=VQR2r3NboTfWfNBT
Bicycles are easier on concrete. We have to do our part with the Norwegians to stop climate change, remember. I also rarely see anyone on those wastes of money. Most of them are riding on sidewalks with their ebikes going 50 kpm with no insurance.
This is what we need in bc. https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/bell-alberta-to-bring-in-law-with-power-to-rip-out-bike-lanes-and-stop-new-ones
That’s a nice surprise. Good size lot with only four units built in two clusters and across from a park. Looks like a winner to me.
I suppose you already looked at the properties at the half duplex at 258 St.Charles and the townhomes along Fairfield built by Aryze.
Thank @ I am Groot. This was
the particular project that was interesting. Understand they will start building soon.
https://tender.victoria.ca/webapps/ourcity/Prospero/FileDownload.aspx?fileId=A4E74CF2-06BC-43B9-B4AC-62841DCCD951&folderId=32847C260219094939703906
I haven’t seen them. You’d be buying one of the very few half‑duplexes scattered around Fairfield, and that kind of scarcity makes them tough to value. Appraisers rely heavily on comparable sales, and when there aren’t many, the value range naturally gets wider.
It’s the same story for buyers and sellers — with so few half‑duplex sales to look at, there isn’t much to anchor a bid or a list price, so pricing can be unpredictable. In some neighbourhoods, the last sale of a similar half‑duplex might be years apart, which doesn’t give anyone much to work with.
Most people picture the classic side‑by‑side half‑duplex, but there are a few other versions out there. There’s the front‑to‑back style, where you might have an older home at the front and a newer one built behind it. And then there’s the two‑level half‑duplex, which is often an older house that strata‑titled the basement suite. It’s always worth checking with your home insurance provider, because certain conditions can apply depending on the setup. I ran across this problem with a home owner that bought a half duplex that was fully detached from the other home. They had to use the same insurance provider and the insurance company wanted to charge more in case her interior plumbing flooded the other unit.
None of this is onerous to navigate — it just helps to know what you’re looking at. You’d be buying a bit of an odd duck: not a single‑family home, not a condo, not a townhouse, but something in between.
@ I am Groot, just wondering what your thoughts would be on front/back duplexes in established areas ? In particular close to the Fairifield plaza. Saw some in the planning stages in Marko’s post with a large garage. As a potential buyer, this would make sense as there is less shared walls and your own garage with a nice little green space.
Neither do you…..
I thought you didn’t read my comments. But you are right the developer was used to building one home at a time. He had no experience in multi-family projects. Lots of buddies that were real estate agents.
Would it still be if you removed this one poster?
Show the math on this potential 500k loss please.
Exactly, so why would they listen to a two bit local appraiser.
Pretty sure I was the first one here calling the party being over spring 2022.
Peter, your comments are rooted in reality with real life business experience, cheers
No, most small time developers go it alone. In a rising market any misjudgement on their part is masked by higher prices. In a rising market everyone is an expert.
I see that stupidity on HHV is at a 20-year high.
Either he is lying or dealing with individuals that have both zero common sense and have never actual built a project.
sorry but – you really think a developer (small time or otherwise) is fundamentally swayed by an appraisal? Then the people you deal with must be very, very different than the ones I meet. They probably shouldn’t be in business?
It’s interesting and no surprise that the world is where it is today.
Our family’s goal has been to simplify everything and reduce risk for the past several years.
I have felt that our economy, our high taxation, and high level of bureaucracy are unsustainable.
It destroys incentive.
Canada is in serious trouble, as many of you will know.
I wish everyone the best 🙂
Lol nice try
So these multiplex units are selling for $1200-1300 per square foot. While my property at 1.5 mil. is selling for $700 sq. ft. No strata fees, parking, large yard, sturdier construction (1954), same neighborhood, privacy, etc… I don’t see the attraction.
My tenants are moving June 30, very tempted to bail, don’t feel like dealing with new tenants.
Don’t need AI or Vic REAnalyst’s hubris for that one. I remember when the lot sold back in 2021 for $1,425,000. You bulls were walking around with permanent erections, convinced it set a new record for lots and that everyone’s home values had suddenly skyrocketed because of that one land sale.
I even saved the ass of a small‑time developer on a private listing for a derelict house down and across the street — he was drinking from the same Kool‑Aid glass at the time. Probably saved him from a half‑million‑dollar loss. Not bad: spend a couple hundred bucks on an appraisal to avoid losing $500,000 and three or four years of time.
The chance of a reasonable profit was lost the day the lot was bought.
I see this often amongst early adopters. It’s a good neighborhood close to the water with large multi million dollar homes on large lots. A reasonably priced town house development should on paper sell out fast. But that isn’t what happens. If you want to live in that neighborhood you’re not looking for a town house. If you’re looking for a town house then it will be an upscale town house development such as those along Gordon Point Road. If you’re looking for a modest priced townhome which this is, then you’re looking closer to town say around Kenmore. Either way you are not looking at Ash where there are no other town homes nearby.
It’s the herd mentality. You want to be around other people like yourself. Ash is a product-market mismatch.
Can’t wait to see the appraiser’s AI answer to this lmao.
>> Thats more of a duplex than some weird multiplex.
Nice term…”weird multiplex”
Yes, and they all seem to have the same weird features … topped off with bike garage, modo car rental, near a bus stop, little or no green space… so far doesn’t seem to be buyers lining up for these “weird multiplexes”
592 square feet for $629k, so $1,189 per sq. Ft. And no parking. Yes, that’s “so much variety”, enough said,
AI generated rocket science in your case.
Missing middle townhouses already seem to be fizzling. The Ash Road townhouses asking prices are down today by $100 K for each unit. Was it overpriced to begin with and would the developer still make good profit? Or, are they trying to get out before other similar products come to market?
Please show me how $900k doesn’t pencil.
Sure, things get somewhat more complicated. Even so, the underlying process for figuring out the right answer is not, in my view, fundamentally different – look at what’s available in your price range that actually interests you, find those comps that you can, make a decision. If that process takes you a bit afield as you say for Inherited, so what, it doesn’t take much time, and overall, a reasonable person with common sense can get sufficiently informed on the market within a short time-frame, honestly. It’s not really a big market functionally, once you start narrowing a few obvious variables.
I take your point about an experienced agent being helpful – of course experience counts, and one would take that into account. I would take advice into account but would never rely on it, though; prefer to do my own DD & I’m confident in my ability to do so. Yes I take the point about out-of-town or first-time buyers.
Nope
Pretty apparent that for you it is….
When did I say it is the worst road? And I would say it is a collector road with a bus route….
1 bedroom with a yard is an Interesting product for sure. I think the larger units will not sell due to a lack of parking, however. I wonder if these initial batches of missing middle products will be the only generation without parking and if developers will learn their lesson afterwards.
The last public sale of a similar home along Laval occurred almost six years ago. Is it the worst street in Gordon Head? No. That honor usually goes to homes along major residential collector and arterial roads.
I suppose one could call most anything missing middle these days. But I wouldn’t consider Laval to be eminantly missing middle. Most 1970s Gordon Head properties don’t pencil out unless the existing structure is at end‑of‑life.
Buying a home shouldn’t feel like rocket science. For most buyers looking at a typical house in an established neighbourhood, it isn’t. The real estate board’s data systems make it easy to understand value because those homes sell often, and the comparables are plentiful.
But the moment you step outside that “typical” category, things get complicated fast. Properties like acreage, waterfront, luxury homes, and unique one‑offs don’t have recent, directly comparable sales. Without those benchmarks, pricing becomes far less predictable and far more nuanced.
That’s when the process stops being straightforward — and when buyers need more than just MLS data to make sense of the market.
One of the worst streets in Gordon Head but also prime for MM development, I think this probably gets bid up.
Developing a real understanding of the marketplace and the type of property you want usually requires working with a real estate agent. Most people don’t naturally have the local knowledge needed to evaluate neighbourhoods, construction quality, pricing trends, or what represents fair value.
The buyers most vulnerable to overpaying tend to fall into three groups:
First‑time buyers — they don’t yet understand the trade‑offs between location, size, age, and price, so they rely too heavily on emotion or list price.
Out‑of‑town buyers — they lack on‑the‑ground context and often compare prices to their home market, which leads to distorted expectations.
Overconfident buyers — they assume they can “figure it out themselves,” underestimate market complexity, and miss red flags that an experienced agent would catch.
A knowledgeable agent helps anchor the search, filter out poor‑value properties, and prevent the kind of impulsive decision‑making that leads to paying too much.
Below $900K house in Gordon Head. Market on correction.
https://housesigma.com/bc/map/?status=for-sale&lat=48.471848&lon=-123.314848&zoom=13.8&with_listing=J6Em7b9aLk8yXBeq
Most buyers need to start by building a list of locations and physical attributes they’re actually searching for. That requires some understanding of the market. If you already own a home in the same area, you’ve got a built‑in knowledge base to work from.
A first draft might look something like:
“I’m looking for a home within a 20‑minute drive of the downtown core, with 2,000–3,000 finished square feet, on a 6,000–10,000 sq ft lot, no more than 25 years old, priced between $1.1M and $1.5M.”
As the search progresses, you naturally relax some criteria and tighten others. That’s normal — it’s how a focused search evolves.
What you don’t hear from most first‑time buyers is this kind of detail. They usually lead with only the price range because it feels like the one thing they can control. But without a full criteria stack, the search becomes chaotic and emotional instead of strategic.
You can see this play out with buyers like Inherited — bouncing from neighbourhood to neighbourhood and house to house with no consistent framework. That’s not exploration; it’s confusion. A structured set of criteria is what keeps a search grounded.
“European car-free living”- works in Europe. I didn’t know the Europeans are living car free.
I’m sure the odd buyer does fall into this but only by being very passive. Can you imagine actually relying on just what an agent thinks you should see? Greater Victoria really isn’t a huge market, and internet resources are readily available. If you’re looking to buy, define your area, define your budget, get online and make a list of what’s available, maybe do a drive-by and before you know it, you’re down to say half a dozen places worth actually looking at. I don’t think this is rocket science.
It might not be a great idea to show “comparable” listings based solely on price rather than on the actual physical and functional characteristics of the property being sold. Price is an output, not an input, and starting with price‑based comps almost always leads to misleading conclusions.
Price filtering lumps together properties that may have nothing in common — for example, a dated 1960s fixer‑upper can fall into the same price band as a fully renovated condo simply because both happened to sell for $700k. When those are presented as comps, buyers naturally assume the subject property is overpriced.
That’s exactly what happened to me looking at Marko’s listing. The so‑called “comparable” properties looked like better deals on paper: larger homes, more bedrooms, better locations — all at the same price. But they weren’t actually comparable; they were just other properties that happened to fall within the same price range. Without matching physical characteristics first, the comparison becomes meaningless and creates the false impression that the listing is a bad value.
Another other issue is that these “comparables” are often the result of judgment sampling by the agent — or worse, by an AI system — which introduces bias into the selection. Instead of an objective, attribute‑based comparison, you end up with a curated set of listings that may reflect the agent’s assumptions or the algorithm’s limitations rather than the true market context. The buyer is only seeing the “comparable” data that the agent/AI program wants them to see.
Seems like there is new missing middle product being listed every day -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29713356/8-1830-allenby-rd-saanich-camosun
So much variety, above is a ground floor one bedroom condo with a yard.
Density attracts density
I wonder what percentage of condo listings are investment properties versus owner occupied? I suspect most of them are vacant.
27 new condo listings and 16 price decreases for downtown condos in the last seven days. Average days-on-market now at 41.
The studios and small one-bedrooms without parking are getting slaughterd in this market.
Yeah no. It’s not like the feds double checked there was housing available when they set immigration targets
Same as currently more or less. Less people moving here as a result.
……. people don’t seem to get this connection.
As a thought experiment, suppose we got rid of each and every development and housing type that someone has claimed “won’t solve the housing crisis” over the last 20 years. Where would we be then?
With vacancy rates sitting around 3% for existing rentals and closer to 7% for purpose‑built buildings, the only type of housing that remains consistently profitable to build in the core is strata targeted at upper‑income households. These buyers are willing to pay premium prices for new homes in established neighbourhoods, and that demand is driving the market.
This group has the wealth to purchase what is likely the last home they’ll ever live in, so they’re far less sensitive to price. What matters most to them is securing a newly built home in a top‑tier location. Given current conditions, I expect this trend to continue in the near future.
Are they getting hosed by the developers? Hell yeh, but let their estate deal with that one in the future. Until then they get to live out the last decade or two of their lives in a new house in a good neighborhood.
I recently re-rented one of my condos. My tenants gave notice as they bought a brand new condo that was recently completed. The tenant I re-rented to decided to upgrade from a situation where he was renting a room in a house. Now that room is vacant and has to be re-rented.
So that brand new condo lead to a room in a house (bottom end of the market) being vacated.
Thats more of a duplex than some weird multiplex.
A few more like that and we will have solved the housing problem.
One more missing middle project hits the market -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29705402/1-3022-cadboro-bay-rd-oak-bay-henderson
Not so much of government workers but lots of people with $ here looking for nice homes with a budget up to the low $2M range. Once you filter for nice houses in nice neighborhoods on nice streets on nice lots with a nice layout there isn’t all that much selection and lots of competition.
Even if you priced your house at a more affordable price, competition would only bid it higher. It’s simple supply and demand.
I’m still amazed at how prices in Victoria just don’t move down despite the rising inventory. I guess being a government town with low unemployment is pretty invincible. Some prices I think are complete wack0. For example, the double lot at 3059 Admirals Rd for 2.6 million for both. What??? Am I out to lunch but who would want to build a condo building there of all places?
“Last month we noted that a divergence was emerging between sales trends in the detached and multi-family segments, which continued in April. Sales of detached homes have been gaining year-over-year, while sales in the multi-family segment have declined, and this pattern is consistent across most areas. The fact this pattern is so broad-based reduces the likelihood that what we’re seeing is just a blip in the data since the momentum isn’t isolated to small pockets of the market.”
Andrew Lis, GVR chief economist and vice-president data analytics Vancouer Real Estate Board
“Market activity is picking up as we move through the spring, but overall conditions remain firmly in buyers’ favour,” said Ishaq Ismail, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “With inventory at healthy levels and housing affordability improving, buyers continue to have the advantage, although confidence remains tempered by ongoing economic uncertainty and persistent market headwinds.”
-Fraser Valley Real Estate Board
“While the spring market is a little slow getting underway this year, activity picked up in the latter half of April,” said Jason Yochim, Chief Executive Officer. “We’re seeing signs that momentum is building, and that could translate into a busier May as more buyers re-engage.”
Yochim noted that despite broader economic uncertainty, Vancouver Island’s housing market continues to demonstrate resilience, with most property types remaining in balanced market conditions.
“Vancouver Island has historically been somewhat insulated from the sharper fluctuations seen in larger urban centres,” says Yochim. “Prices have remained relatively stable, and the region continues to attract strong interest, particularly from retirees, which helps support demand even as buyers take a more measured approach.”
Nanaimo Real Esate board