March: Weak market continues
February was the first time that the market tipped in favour of buyers, after around 2.5 years of bouncing around the balanced level. That continued in March, with little change in sales activity or market conditions. Single family sales ticked up a bit, but nothing here is outside of what I would consider noise.
Combining all sales together, we can see that we just haven’t been able to escape that post-rate-hike trough, similar to the level of sales we were at in 2013/14.
New lists remain high, though of course many of these are properties that have been listed and re-listed repeatedly for years. Listings will be one to watch. When they dropped in 2012/2013 that essentially marked the bottom of the market and after that inventory started selling down and the market started improving. Prices also stopped declining as soon as new lists stopped coming on so quickly.
Inventory continues to rise. It’s now higher than it’s been for about 11 years. Still below the peak it reached in 2014, but not by a whole lot.
No significant change in market conditions since February, with both months of inventory and the sales to new list ratio going sideways. Slightly higher sales and somewhat less inventory than 2013 does mean that the market remains stronger than it was back then from a months of inventory perspective and in the combined measure.
Combining the two measures shows essentially the same weak buyers market we were at in February.
Prices were little changed in March, with small decreases in medians for all property types.
The Canadian consumer has basically been depressed since rates went up, and $2+ gas and an inflation spike from the war, special military operation, dumpster fire is not helping.
The wildcard now is rates. Fixed rates are already up and fuel prices are threatening to re-ignite the inflation fires (never mind the cost of mini eggs!). If the conflict drags on for months our central bank may have no choice but to raise rates, and we’ve seen what that does to real estate activity. TACO has been a safe bet in the past, but the stakes have also never been this high.
In other words, don’t count on the market turning around imminently.
Still one of my favourite images I made.
Similar bullshit: The explicit mansion zoning Saanich has just up from my neighbourhood. Just a ton of zones with increasingly large minimum lot sizes
April: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2026/05/04/april-same-sales-as-last-year-but-buyers-market-continues/
We need to bring back that “million dollar house reserve” to maintain affordability.
Most missing middle townhouses have been a flop so far. No sales yet for either mcbriar or ash road, mean well strong sales for older townhouses downtown in the million dollar range.
Historically, the biggest two months of the year coming up! Too early to draw any conclusions other than sales did pick up last 10 days of April.
Victoria Real Estate Board
May 4th, 2026
Month May May
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 64 758
New Listings 128 1,834
Active Listings 3,674 3,717
Golf is too unilateral not universal. My mistake.
An elevator would be essential for that property. Senior golfers will eventually incur any variety of injuries. Several of my friends took up pickle ball, it seemed to be quite a craze. They didn’t last long and I don’t hear much about the game anymore. The old body simply doesn’t last forever. Best exercise for seniors is moderate weight training and swimming. Golf is too universal and will eventually ruin your back. It’s also a waste of time. Not to mention expensive.
2328 Dunleavy has been on the market for years. Looked at and it is/was really lacking in design flow. Looks like the contractor/owner used a mish-mash of left over tiles and tiled everything. For someone looking to make it look and feel like a high calibre home would take a seriously significant effort costing 100s of thousands of dollars FWIW.
The Oakdowne $2.4m penthouse likely sold to a senior couple of golfers. Probably ROCers moving here.
The unit is across the street from Uplands golf course. Comes with a private elevator – which would appeal to seniors. And has these views “ Exceptional Oak Bay penthouse on the Lansdowne slope capturing sweeping, never-before-seen views of the city, ocean, and Olympic Mountains”
As the writeup says “ Ideally located across from Uplands Golf Club . A rare downsizer-focused offering without compromise. Live the life you always imagined, In Oak Bays most exclusive offering”
In short, a dream condo for well-heeled golfers retiring to Oak Bay. Missing middle developers seem to target and cater to that group nicely. Too bad we typically need to tear down a scarce SFH to make that happen.
The buyers of the penthouse could realize in a year or two that they made a mistake and unload it for a huge loss. That’s one other scenario. People often make bad decisions.
Groot, It does not have a private airstrip for your jet either.
Parking included I assume?
Here’s a good one. I’m the high bidder so far on this 2019 Tesla S. it’s being sold under the garage keepers act by a towing company in Winnipeg. Sold as is. Auction ends Monday evening, probably go for over 20 grand.
I had a house this big and realized didn’t need more than 1,000 sq.ft.
Just re-rented a 430 sq.ft. unit in Vic West for $1,950/month. Tenants of four years (2022) moved out at $1,750 which matches the reports rentals.ca is putting out. While rents have been dropping for a couple of years still substantially higher on average than 2022.
Why would I not buy Dunlevy? Because it doesn’t have a quarter section of open forage land. No place to keep horses.
Way would you not buy a house like 2328 Dunlevy instead. It just sold for 2,35 million about 100k less, it was built in 2018 so basically almost new. It is twice the size and from the pictures it seems at least the same quality. It is similar size lot except here all the dirt belongs to you. You can have an elevator put in for. under 100k (granddad did after his first stroke) and the house is in Estevan Village which strikes me as a better location than the Landsdown slope.
I can understand some people wanted the amenities that come with some condos. My buddy is renting in Shutters in Vic West and it is a great location but it comes with a gym and a full sized pool and fantastic views of the harbor with a fast walk across the bridge downtown, Think he mentioned a sauna as well. That seems like a lifestyle choice and I get it. To pay more than a newer house in Estavan which is twice the size and to be in a small strata on the Landsdowne slope I dont get.
Hmm, I see that differently. I think Inherited had a pretty good point:
I think this is a valid point. And when I look at these triplex or fourplex type of things, I personally would never consider buying one (and we’re the right demographic), for two reasons. Yes, the value proposition; but even more importantly, I’ve seen strata disputes in many different situations, but never more vitriolic than in a small strata where you can’t escape your “strata adversaries” and see them every day…I’d never consider buying into a very small strata for that reason alone. We are actually starting to look for a unicorn downsize situation, but these triplex/fourplex things hold zero appeal for us.
The discussion was penthouse condo versus “penthouse” missing middle unit, not rancher/townhome vs penthouse.
The exact same builder has brand new main floor living townhomes too -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29375306/3-5032-wesley-rd-saanich-cordova-bay
They recognize different buyers want different things so they have a variety of missing middle design concepts.
I’d go for a smaller rancher or townhouse.
Both of my Teslas are from Shanghai and they’ve been bullet proof, but that’s not the point.
He went to China to cut a deal as some sort of strategic hedging against the US and the result is we are importing a US company product as a result of that deal.
Fyi, Model 3 never switched to Berlin as it is not produced in Berlin. For all intents purposes sales of Model 3 ground to a hault as of US tariffs until Carney made this deal with China. Now that the price has been slashed in half I anticipate sales will pick up.
We had those before as well, not sure what the difference is. Briefly they switched to Berlin instead but before that they were coming from Shanghai too
Hard to argue with $39,490 price.
I would just think if you’ve been living in a SFH for 30 to 50 years and want to downsize would you rather move to a condo penthouse on a busy street or something on a quiet residential street?
Try to educate yourself Leo. When viynl reaches the end of its life it turn into concrete 🙂
93k for a used X3? What da….that’s insane. Tesla ruined all of these performance gas specs, for me anyway. Going from a Q5 to SQ5 used to mean something and now the cheapest sub 40k Tesla available has an equivalent 0-60 time of a 200k Porsche 911 T ->
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslacanada/comments/1t1cgfz/breaking_tesla_slashes_canadian_model_3_to_c39490/
^Carney’s negotiations in China paid off! We are getting a China built, American company car to undercut the market in Canada. Brilliant 🙂
and the ones we are importing from Berlin we are giving a 5k EV credit on.
It’s crazy how poorly Carney’s deal was reported on. The second I heard about it the first thought was wtf is he doing, we are going to get Elon’s CHina Model 3s and sure enough that is exactly what is happening.
Damn, Marko your fellow realtors are getting lazy AF.
Concrete flooring on this patio eh?
A BMW vs. a Tesla is a preference.
A new Tesla vs. a used Tesla is a preference.
People can disagree about those choices without feeling personally threatened.
But housing?
That’s where people’s identity, status, security, and self‑story get wrapped up together.
When someone says:
“Why would anyone buy a condo?”
“Why would anyone buy an old house?”
“Why would anyone live in the suburbs?”
They’re not just talking about real estate.
They’re defending their own life choices
This is known as the Fallacy from incongruity.
When someone can’t imagine wanting something different from what they want, they assume:
their preference is universal, their logic is universal, their priorities are universal
And when someone else doesn’t share those priorities, it feels like a challenge to their worldview.
The truth is simple: Different people want different homes for the same reason they want different cars — because they have different lives, values, tolerances, and identities.
That’s why some owners struggle to judge their home’s worth objectively — and why they often can’t understand why someone else wouldn’t want the same type of property they do.
This cognitive distortion shows up in religion, politcis, sports fandom, and yes, housing. When a belief becomes part of someone’s identity, the brain stops treating it like a belief and starts treating it like self‑protection.
Does anyone know what the deal is with 1270 Yates St? It looks like it was a short term rental with how cut up it is and how put together the units are.
There won’t be many young and spry couples with 2.5 mil to navigate 2 flights of stairs all the time. Plus no yard I presume. Like I said, older more established couples are more likely to have some type of health issue that makes those stairs a non starter. They can give me 2 mil for the same neighborhood, a big yard, garage, garden, fewer stairs and more privacy. And a more solidly built house with no issues.
Groot, I find your answer confusing, at least from my point of view. Read it twice and I think I understand what you are saving but a SFH with all the hassles of other people living under you and all the hassles of a strata seems the the worse lifestyle choice. It is not a prime location right downtown, it is not the Unplands and its not on or even close to the water or walking distance of much else. So I dont see the life style advantages compared to the disadvantages.
You’re basically trying to reconcile two different priorities:
Value for money (a full house)
vs.
Lifestyle and location (a top‑floor triplex unit)
So the real question becomes:
What matters more — owning land and a larger home, or having autonomy and a space that’s designed around how you want to live?
These are actually two separate markets with different buyer preferences, which is why comparing them directly feels tricky
Another way to look at it is this:
You’re prioritizing long‑term appreciation and you’re willing to wait for it.
The other person values immediate lifestyle benefits, and future appreciation isn’t as important to them.
You’re essentially making decisions on two different timelines — one focused on future upside, the other on present-day quality of life.
I am now wondering what the logic is of buying the top floor of a triplex for basically 2,5 million when I have have been looking at whole houses in that prices range. I actually looked this place up after reading about it here. It seems to be a 2000 sq foot apartment on the top floor of a triplex in a good neighbourhood but not prime waterfront or anything. Maybe it is just me and sure someone has more money than me but I still dont know why you would want to be in a strata unit at that price. Seems like I just dont understand real estate.
Vicre, we just finished doing a break down on using cheaper everything just recently and the savings just wasn’t enough to make a meaningful difference. I use only Bosch appliances, I could move to lg or something but you’re probably only talking about a few hundred bucks a unit, meh . Most cheap windows and doors don’t meet code so that’s another meh , and so on.
View dependent IMO
The penthouse is already sold, appears it was only entered into MLS system to report the sale. $2,467,500 including GST. As I noted a couple of months ago, not sure why these wouldn’t sell better than penthouses in large buildings as most large buildings are in busy spots/streets.
You don’t think, floors, windows, kitchens and bathrooms move the needle?
groot, ya I agree that if your doing spec builds to be mindful of the hood . I guess my point is that there’s not a whole lot of savings in the scheme of things when it comes to the materials and fixtures and such . There’s just a lot of fixed costs that don’t really budge much between okay and nice
Thursty, when you’re building a townhouse development, you have to stay mindful of the surrounding neighborhood. If the project doesn’t align with the area’s character and value range, you risk creating an over‑improvement that the market simply won’t support.
Every neighborhood has a value band — a range where homes consistently sell.
When your finished units land well above the top of that band, buyers start wondering why they should pay a premium in an area that doesn’t justify it.
I’m not saying Oakdowne is an over‑improvement — that would need to be analyzed. But if you’re building a $5‑million home in a neighborhood of $2‑million homes, you’re setting yourself up for problems.
It probably won’t help you much, Frank. There may be a bit of crossover where someone considering a townhouse also looks at a single‑family home, but in reality they’re usually two distinct groups of buyers.
This lines up with what you’ve said before about townhouse and condo ownership. You’d never buy into a strata, while others feel an older single‑family home just doesn’t make sense for their lifestyle or priorities.
As for the stairs, they’ll turn off some mature buyers, but saying “most” is an overstatement. Buyers who have reached the point where stairs are a deal‑breaker are generally looking for a one‑level home with minimal maintenance — which would rule out both a townhouse and your place.
The stairs at 3080 Oakdowne will probably turn off most older, well established buyers. GST on top of that, double ouch.
My house is 2 short blocks down Eastdowne from 3080 Oakdowme. 2200 sq. ft., 8900 sq. ft. lot. Definitely needs a kitchen, 4 bed, 2 bath. New roof, new garage door, overall very good condition. I’m thrilled that multi plex unit is 2.3 mil, it can only help the value when I go to sell. No suite, which some people might prefer.
Lol this looks pretty good to me.
https://www.cargurus.ca/Cars/l-Used-BMW-X3-M-d2847#listing=445462016/FEATURED/DEFAULT
Ideologies rarely plays out in real life. See david eby….
I agree 100%, those families have been robbed of the opportunity to get into that fixer upper sfh in a diserable neighborhood. They could have fixed up the house overtime and would be much better off than buying a multiplex.
If you could find a vacant development site in that area today large enough for a three‑unit townhouse project, you’d be paying around $1.5 million for the entire parcel. But that does not mean each of the three future townhouse sites is worth $1.5 million on its own.
The contributory value of an individual townhouse site is lower because each unit occupies only a small portion of the overall land area. The value of the parent parcel is shared across all units, common areas, access, and the development as a whole.
You may have noticed I didn’t refer to the market value of a vacant townhouse lot. That’s intentional. Vacant townhouse strata lots simply do not trade in the marketplace, which means there is no direct market evidence for their standalone land value. And that creates an immediate problem if someone tries to use a cost approach to compare townhouse values — the land component cannot be reliably extracted or supported.
The contributory lot value of an individual townhouse is nowhere near $1.5 million to begin with. When you start by allocating the entire $1.5 million site value to each unit, you’ve already distorted the economics.
If you then add construction costs on top of that inflated land figure, you’ll almost always end up with a conclusion that the cost to build exceeds the value of the finished townhouse. But that outcome isn’t a reflection of real market conditions — it’s simply the result of starting with an overstated land value for each unit.
The underlying problem is that the $1.5 million represents the value of the whole development site, not the value of each future townhouse footprint. Treating them as equivalent guarantees that any cost‑based comparison will produce misleading results.
It seems the only “problem” they have solved is that regular families were buying old but livable SFH and affording and living in them. Without a tear down.
Now these families are more likely to get outbid by MM developers, who will build new units, with luxury prices higher than the old SFH sold for. .
No, that isn’t the only question. You present it as a binary option, with a tear down in either case. You’re completely ignoring the affordable possibility that someone moves in and lives in it, like the current owner is doing.
Prior to upzoning, the likely and AFFORDABLE result would be a regular family buying the old house for $1.3m and living in it. Note in the listing write up they are begging for that outcome. “With great bones and an eclectic layout, this sweet 1400+ sq ft 3 bedroom home would welcome a new family with open arms.”
But thanks to upzoning, family buyers intending to live in it are being outbid by missing middle developers. Marko documented this on HHV for three of his buyers, losing out to MM developers who would tear down the house that they would have lived in.
It is because of upzoning bringing in the developers outbidding families that I said that Hewlett house is “destined for the wrecking ball”. Without upzoning, it would more likely have been sold to a family to live in for $1.3m.
I remember just a few years ago when Leo and the other missing-middle advocates were almost hysterical in demanding zoning changes.
What problem was missing-middle supposed to solve again?
100% agreed. The lot is $1.5 to start and then expenses quickly start rolling in from there. You can’t build this for cheap even if you did bottom of the barrel finishing.
Groot thing is if they dumb down the project as far as quality materials used , it wouldn’t move the needle much when it comes to finished price . A lot of the costs are already baked in and those can’t really be changed . Even todays rentals that are being built would be fancy 20 years ago lol
Victoria Real Estate Board
May 1st, 2026
Month Apr Apr
Year 2026 2025
Net Unconditional Sales 643 642
New Listings 1,740 1,629
Active Listing 3,710 3,426
We beat out last year for the first YOU improvement this year 🙂
100%, everyone wants to ignore reality.
Three brand new townhomes on St. Patrick at 1,564 sq.ft. each x 3 = 4,692 sq.ft. total structure. $1.4 million each.
Last brand new SFH home sale on St. Patrick @ 4,098 sq.ft. sold for $3.85 million.
Calling the Oakdowne project “missing middle” is a mischaracterization. Everything about it — the construction quality, the finishes, the pricing — places it firmly in the premium category for that street. A townhouse doesn’t automatically qualify as missing middle, and when a project is intentionally built and priced as a luxury product, it stops serving the demographic that term is meant to describe.
This is premium infill, not mid‑market housing. I would never market a property like this using “missing middle,” because it cheapens the brand. It’s a luxury offering positioned at the same level as upper‑income single‑family homes in the area.
Just like they’ve made a huge leap in FSD recently the new Ys being delivered from Berlin the fit and finish has made a huge jump too.
As far as ugly, Tesla is uglifying the standard y on purpose as I am guessing there is very little margin on it. They want people to get the more expensive trims. Once you get to the performance Y it is a good looking car imo -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvuc-R4dXTk
BMW has been slowly in a styling decline since the E46 M3. The new grills are just plain hideous.
Audi now looks like Kia
Mercedes stopped paying attention 15 years ago. C class to S class all looks the same. SUVs all look the same.
Acura is now selling re-branded GMs.
etc.
There are only a couple of competitors that are better looking such as the Macan EV but from a reliability standpoint the Macan is essentially undriveable based on the online groups. People can’t connect phones to them the software is so bad. Not to mention it is almost double the price of a comparable Y.
They were always destined for the wrecking ball. The oak bay OCP literally stated it a decade ago. Question is only do we want them to be replaced with $3-$4M new detached builds or $1.5-$2m small multifamily
Yes, where Oak Bay family SFH w/green space like this for $1.3 million are destined for the wrecking ball, to be replaced by $2.3 million luxury missing middle units.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29683385/1274-hewlett-pl-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
Gentrify oak bay
Correct.
So don’t buy it. The standard model Y is $50k. Tesla have gone for a functional, minimalist design, which doesn’t appeal to everyone.
Model Y is lame because it is ugly and the fit and finish is poor.
>>> In what world is 2.3 million considered missing middle????
It’s just another example of missing middle providing luxury instead of affordable homes. Because the government failed to mandate any affordability minimal conditions on upzoned missing middle. So what we get is gentrification. Higher income people have lots of luxury missing middle options in Victoria, but few of them are affordable.
Regarding the fatality data. That single study of deaths/ million miles, has been debunked, as the company that did the study admitted that they just estimated the total number of miles driven. Here’s an excerpt from the study methodology where they admit that they estimated “ To adjust for exposure, the number of cars involved in a fatal crash were normalized by the total number of vehicle miles driven, which was *** estimated *** from iSeeCars’ data of over 8 million vehicles on the road in 2022 from model years 2018-2022.”
When using accurate numbers for miles driven, “ The [Model Y] fatality rate in the study is overstated by almost 4x and the Model Y scores unremarkably in reality.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1gyznda/tesla_model_y_fatality_rates_exaggerated_in/
It’s a triplex Frank. Missing middle refers to plexes, townhouses and anything between a house and an apartment or condo building. It has nothing to do with price.
One more tidbit of information below. Also Tesla sales in Canada have dropped from a high of 54,000 in 2024 to 20,000 in 2025, a decline of 63%. From a business perspective, that is catastrophic.
When my intelligence is insulted I fight back. See below. On the list- 4 shit boxes, 2 super cars, and one a combination of both.
In what world is 2.3 million considered missing middle????
We can add Norway, energy policy and climate change to the list of topics on which Frank is ignorant
Missing middle penthouse in Oak Bay -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29682141/3-3080-oakdowne-rd-oak-bay-henderson
Fair. I’ll take your word for it as that’s a long video. I was just going by the last bjorn video, which demonstrated the fancy byd he was driving wasn’t great.
Are you really this dumb or just trolling? There are over 9 million Teslas on the road and if you can’t comprehend data these argument are a complete waste of time. Unfortunately I have to add you to the mute collection. HHV comments section just keeps getting dumber and dumber as the years pass.
Im not buying that nothing in China is “remotely close” to Tesla FSD.
For example, here’s a video posted yesterday, where an American YouTuber (Kim Java) went to China and tested “head to head” Tesla FSD against XPeng VLA 2.0.
The winner was XPeng 8/10 to Tesla 7/10.
When I watch it, I’d rate XPeng the clear winner as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4bh9sgPrcA”
Now this was driving in China, and both of these companies are coming out with new versions all the time. But your statement was that nothing is “remotely close” to Tesla. So seeing XPeng beat Tesla as measured by an American test indicates to me that at a minimum XPeng is close to Tesla FSD, if not better as Kim Java found.
If you disagree, watch the video and tell me why XPeng isn’t “remotely close” to Tesla FSD. Btw) Xpeng is licensing their self-driving to western car companies. Starting with VW that owns 5% of XPeng.
Marko- How fast was the safest vehicle in the world going when it took the turn in the road? You just completely negated your argument. That’s how people are getting killed in these magnificent vehicles. You’re lucky to be alive.
Yup, it even navigates road construction by reading the handheld slow/stop signs. Impressive!
I’ve been blown away at how good this latest version is around run abouts, four way stops, zipper merging, other tricky scenarios, etc. It still switches lanes at odd times on the highway, etc., but I’ve gone from being like this will take another 15 years to probably will be pretty damn good in 5 years. There are still things to iron out, today it didn’t slow down for a cut in the road. Thankfully rims were not blown out.
I’ve been on FSD 92% of the time 20 days into the free trial.
A dashboard figurine of Elon Musk might work 🙂
https://www.amazon.com/Bobblehead-Entrepreneur-American-Polyresin-Collectible/dp/B0DNNHBCJL
Who do I give the finger to in a self driving vehicle?
Strong sales last four days, this will be the first month where sales are better YOY.
>>> There is nothing remotely close to FSD today (even from the Chinese brands).
Agreed. And if it’s unsupervised robotaxis, I think Tesla is still has a long way to go. As Elon made clear on the recent earnings call. Tesla will be lucky to preserve their autonomous robotaxi license in Texas as of May 28. https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/texas/texas-regulating-self-driving-cars-new-state-permit-system/269-c6345af1-1b35-496d-bf18-560258894e5a
They pulled it. There is nothing remotely close to FSD today (even from the Chinese brands).
Yes.
Mercedes (supposedly) has level 3 autonomy, and has offered to take liability, but it’s highly conditional and I’m not sure what’s happened to it. Definitely not in North America.
Tesla doesn’t accept liability, but Tesla offers insurance in some states, and offers a discount proportional to how much you use FSD. Other insurance companies may follow this, as FSD crash rates are reportedly less than non FSD.
https://www.tesla.com/support/insurance/fsd
Of course for the unsupervised robotaxi, Tesla takes liability, and I assume they will if they expand that to robotaxi owned by third parties, but operated as part of the Tesla robotaxi fleet. So far, it looks like it will be a long time before we see the huge numbers of autonomous robotaxis Elon has been promising.
In the meantime, I’m happy that my Tesla MY w/lifetime FSD chauffeurs me around town with a single click.
Currently yes.
If your self driving vehicle has an accident, are you at fault? “But officer, I was in the back seat with my girlfriend “.
LOL, sounds like making that statement makes you exactly that.
Ya I agree, I don’t like the new gen with all screens. 2023 m40i with the m sport and executive package would be good.
To be clear, I have nothing against ICE cars, and I’m in favour of Canada growing our petroleum industry. I stated the reasons I love my Tesla, and none of them were against ICE cars.
To each his own!
Calling the model Y lame is not non-sense, calling it inefficient and poor value would be non-sense.
At the list price it is back to late 2020 pricing, prior to the big ramp up in late 2021.
I am only getting involved in these conversations as we have people who have obviously never owned a Tesla or EV making posting complete non-sense.
Same, my parents are in Europe for a while but as soon as they get back I am selling their Audi gas SUV and ordering a Model Y Standard for them.
Despite being an FSD hater for so many years with this new version I am seriously considering the $99/month subscription. I figured out if I wear sunglasses I can answer client texts, book showings, etc. Without sunglass it keeps disconnecting me 🙂
Well, that one was a 2023 base model X5 40i. Like I said, it was “fine”. Frank said what’s the obsession with speed, and it’s a valid point; I don’t “need” the 8 cylinder (and I think the BMW B58 6 cylinder is a superb ICE). I’ve had two X5s and I like them, especially the handling – more so about that.
I’m also looking at 2024s, which have more HP, but again, to what point really? I almost prefer the 2023 as it still uses physical buttons for most things.
Or, and here’s a thought, be a little less judgmental, live & let live? We don’t give you much grief about endlessly posting about Teslas even though we could make comments about Elon or whatever…
Thanks for the discussion, EVs are not my thing. If they had safer batteries with longer range, I would buy in. When I first heard about them in the 90’s, I was excited that I wouldn’t have to buy gas anymore. I don’t know how much I’ve spent in the last 54 years. I do remember in the 80’s I had a diesel Benz that I filled up for $30 twice a month (47 cents a liter) for a grand total of $720 a year. Now I spend that in a month in the summer going back and forth to the cottage. Owning a vehicle has been essential for my business and has made me a lot of money. I’ve never worked at a desk. Also, the invention of the internal combustion engine has created the high quality of life that we have enjoyed in developed countries. Without it, we’d all be living like the Flintstones.
V14 jump is pretty big from earlier versions. Got a ride out to Langford in my brother’s new model Y. Car swung by my place, picked up a friend, drove out to Langford, and found itself a parking spot in the garage of the place we were going with zero interventions and zero questionable moves (the old version had major pucker factor)
Getting to the point of seriously considering one for my mom. It’s almost certainly a safer driver than she is and could be a total gamechanger for maintaining independence for seniors.
Sold 1974 for $42,500 ($289,000 in today’s dollars)
Listed for $899,000 today. If it sells for list, that’s a big jump in dollars over the inflation adjusted value, but a comparively modest 2.25% increase a year over 52 years after inflation.
>>> I don’t think self driving works on snow covered roads.
I wouldn’t get a Tesla for Winnipeg winters. Cold is brutal on battery performance, and other issues.
>>>> I would never use self driving, wouldn’t want it in my car
Like a lot of things, “don’t knock ‘til you’ve tried it”.
I’ve been driving Teslas for 11 years and they’ve given me free self driving for 30 days on probably half a dozen occasions. I’ve always thought it was complete garbage.
That being said I just had 30 day free trial with the latest version and damn it’s really good. I was able to eat my lunch in-between a showing in North Saanich and an inspection in Oak Bay. Didn’t touch the steering wheel once. It parked itself infront of the Oak Bay house too.
An argument for performance gas SUVs is that they are fast; however, Tesla’s are faster so it’s a weak argument.
You make a valid point thought, where exactly in Victoria can you drive a performance car.
I would never use self driving, wouldn’t want it in my car. Front crash avoidance would be nice when road conditions are good. I don’t think self driving works on snow covered roads.
There’s an old saying-“SPEED KILLS”. What’s this obsession with speed, are you driving in Montana?
I’ve been driving Tesla exclusively for 12+ years, and will continue to do so. There are huge advantages of over other cars.
– charge at home,
– no visits to the gas station for anything,
– car is always full range in the morning (280+ miles)
– quiet operation, no engine sound.
– close to no maintenance
…. And that’s all before the biggest advantage of all came along
Self-driving (FSD). I drive with that on 95%+ of the time. Amazing. Makes driving safer, more relaxing and fun.
A performance gas SUV is the lamest thing you could possibly buy. A Model Y that costs 1/2 the price of a RSQ8 is faster, way more reliable, and maintenance free. You would only buy something like a RSQ8 or similar performance SUV if you had a complex issue or insecurities.
and if you are going to make the argument that it doesn’t have the same feel of a RSQ8 then you go and buy a real engaging car like a manual 911 not a super heavy automatic SUV.
There are RSQ8 on Autotrader that are 100k below MSRP. Impossible for the Y to depreciate that much as it would mean it would be in worth negative 25k. The performance German cars just take a beating on re-sale plus it’s a fortunate to maintain them. The Y has become such an attractive entry price that it simply doesn’t have that much room to depreicate in absolute terms.
I have another set of friends that have a Q8 and a Y and I always see them driving the Y. When I bug them why, it’s the same answer….”so much easier with the dog mode.” 🙂
Or did the Tesla drive itself? That’s what is being investigated. I don’t think the father was driving recklessly with his daughters in the back seat.
Yes, believe it or not people have driven Teslas at very high speed into trees and died.
Good products can also be lame, nothing wrong with that. The keg is an excellent steakhouse when it comes to consistency and value, but it’s also a bit lame at the same time.
Impossible to put out on a ship. The toxic smoke can kill or destroy your lungs. There are 3 cargo ships sitting on the bottom of the ocean with thousands of vehicles due to EV fires. I guess they don’t like to be jostled around in rough seas. A lot safer to transport ICE vehicles with a minimal amount of fuel in the tank. For all you Tesla lovers, please don’t transport anyone (especially children) in the back seat. It’s a proven death trap in an accident. Just ask the widow in Germany who lost her husband and two daughters. What an awful way to die.
Can’t remember a politician putting a gun to my head to buy a 2nd and 3rd Tesla. Would have bought all three without rebates.
Maybe there is a reason why the majority of Tesla owners replace their car with another Tesla. Maybe there is a reason why people are awaiting until September for a Tesla when they can buy from another manufacturer today. Just some thoughts.
Because they don’t want a potential battery fire that is very difficult to put out on the ship?
EVs are bankrupting many of the long standing automakers. Jaguar refunded the entire cost for all their SUV EVs (Fpace I believe). They had so many complaints that they simply bought all of them back. Tesla is not immune to very serious design flaws. Elon has bought off all the politicians with stock handouts so they turn a blind eye.
Teslas are great if all you just want an efficient utilitarian looking vehicle to get you from point A to point B that’s everywhere on the road. Nothing wrong with that, but doesn’t appeal to everyone, especially those with a few bucks to spare.
I would probably pick a Tesla model Y if I was cross shopping that against a average q5,l x3 or a glc. But I definitely won’t be picking a model y performance instead of the higher end gas luxury sports SUVs though.
No I meant the higher end gas performance suvs (x5m, glc/gle63s, sq8/rsq8, macan/cyanee gts/turbos) The pricing and depreciation is much better than the performance evs. Or even the higher spec of the normal gas SUVs like x5m50i, Audi sq5/7/8, glc/gle/53s etc. they just command a higher price than similar EVs.
I guess B.C. ferries lack critical thinking skills as they will not allow any damaged, disabled or towed EV on their ferries.
You mean that there are 10x Model Ys for every Audi Q5, X3, whatever crap Benz makes these days?
People ordering now are waiting for September for their new Ys -> https://www.reddit.com/r/teslacanada/comments/1syegfb/waiting_on_a_model_y_performance_in_canada_the/
I think some of these brands such as Porsche are in big trouble. Who would go out and buy something like a Macan EV when you can get a Y for 1/2 the price and it is a better product and far more reliable. The FB groups for other EVS (Porsche, VW, etc.) are just non-stop people posting problems and returning cars under lemon laws. Has to be impacting profits for those brands.
What spec?
The market thinks otherwise though…..
EVs are far too fast for the average driver, 99% of drivers.
Are daily drivers supposed to be exciting?
I have a fun car for sunny days which I love, but I agree with you on the SUV comment. Currently looking at getting a new(ish) SUV, test-drove the X5 yesterday, thought yeah it’s fine, but is that it? Hard to find a daily driver to get excited about.
I’m prone to thinking this way as well, but I’ve found over the years that a reasonably-diversified portfolio does best when I don’t act on impulses like this & just leave it alone. There have been studies showing the best long-term results are obtained in accounts people forgot they had or maybe even died…
My friend is a good example of someone that like cars. Model Y daily driver for kids+dog, loves the dog mode. 6 spd manual 911 GTS in the garage he takes up to the track a couple of times a year. Interesting thing is he has the new Model Y which is faster than his 911 in a straight line. The 75k Model Y is faster than a 450k lamborghini -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M43QrHY5A-8 (note the cars this guy has in his garage and his daily driver, a Tesla).
Your automatic gas SUV is also incredibly lame if you are into cars, and very slow compared to a Y.
Safest, most efficient/cost effective and also the lamest. But if you don’t care about that then it’s a great car.
It’s literally the safest car you can buy, but yes there are those of us who have zero critical thinking skills that see a Tesla fire news story and convince themselves they are a deathtrap.
Hopefully no one crashes into you.
400,000 km + now driving EVs and almost zero maintenance. Climate aside, EV is a far superior product.
I found that out, thanks Patrick. They still export billions of cubic meters of natural gas that eventually gets pumped directly into the atmosphere. 5 million Norwegians puttering around in EVs is going to do squat to affect climate change. CO2 is a trace gas (0.04%) in our atmosphere. It could triple and it wouldn’t make a damn bit of difference. It’s all bullshit. It probably costs 10 times more to charge an EV in Norway than if they produced cheap gas. How much energy was consumed building their hydro infrastructure?
> Norway’s EVs are going to save the planet. Probably get their electricity from natural gas. What a farce.
Norway generates close to 100% of electricity by renewables. 90% hydro, 10% wind.
The market perform phenomenally in the last 12 months, even the lowly TSX-60 gained 30% there are stocks and ETFs in the tech sector gained as much as 768%. Nothing is sustainable and to me the economy is at grave uncertainty due to high input costs (oil & gas), suggesting more downside than upside for the next 12-18 months in the market including real estate.
Norway’s EVs are going to save the planet. Probably get their electricity from natural gas. What a farce.
GoC 5Y bond yields are on the move up again. I expect GoC 5Y yields to reach 3.5% in the next few weeks, and this will increase the 5Y fixed mortgage rates to 4.5% or higher.
Did quite a few mortgages for me after that, great guy. He went on to be very successful including construction/development.
Last time I checked in with him about 2-3yrs ago(?), he closed a hand full of pre-sales in one shot.. Not sure how he did that with any bank but he closed them!!! Not every guy would/could bear that kind of stress…
Philosophical question: if you were a 40 y/o renter with, say, 350k liquid today, how would you deploy that? Buy a house? Condo? Stay liquid in financial markets and keep renting? Other? Many variables of course, but curious to hear folks thoughts in a vacuum under present circumstances.
~~~
you can try to deploy it into DEFI making around 8-9% (set and forget it) and collect $2500/month(+-)… It’s pretty much no brainer if you look into it hard enough that almost no one would think about it.. (NOT financial advice)
Those numbers are meaningless, net change in population is key.
The single biggest fear on this blog about Canada’s new sovereign wealth fund isn’t the concept — it’s the possibility of it drifting into the same trap the Alberta Heritage Fund fell into.
>> Norway’s $1.7 trillion wealth fund works out to 300 grand per person
Ironic that Norway makes all that money from oil, yet leads the world in EV adoption – 90% of new cars are EV.
Also amazing that with a population of only 5 million, they managed to win the Winter Olympics by a wide margin.
Reopen the immigration floodgates?…. They never really closed them to begin with. Still much higher (400k/year) than pre-Covid (300k/year)
2022-24 was a paperwork catch up from the tiny number processed in 2020. But last year at 395k was actually higher than the average of the preceding 9 years (360k).
And projections are still for close to 400k
(It was just the temporary foreign worker/student “floodgates” that were closed, but those aren’t immigrants)
Immigration to Canada by year
2016, 296,346
2017, 286,510
2018, 321,055
2019, 341,180
2020, 184,624
2021, 401,000
2022, 437,180
2023, 471,808
2024, 485,000
2025, 395,000
2026-28 projected 380,000 per year
Norway’s $1.7 trillion wealth fund works out to 300 grand per person. Are they ever going to see any of it? No. I guess it ensures free education, better healthcare and other benefits. Doesn’t Norway have high taxes? Makes you wonder what they’re hoarding all that money for. It would help the citizens if they were paid an annual dividend, say 10 grand each. That would stimulate the birth rate. Anyway, we certainly don’t have to worry about it.
simplistic, but I think you nailed the essence of it.
And that’s also part of my discomfort with this new “fund” – gamesmanship from the beginning, plus then the whole Liberal propensity to come up with taxpayer-funded slush funds, likely heavy with bureaucracy. I like Carney and I think he’s doing a sensible job in a difficult environment, but this “fund” smacks of the kind of Liberal DNA we just can’t seem to get away from.
That said, the devil is in the details, and we don’t have them yet. Carney is a pragmatic, thoughtful individual so I will give him the benefit of the doubt for now & see how this plays out.
Spoke to my realtor yesterday and he informed me about a new regulation when you sell your rental property. He mentioned that if the new buyer or very close relative, did not move into the property, the seller could be fined 12 months rent, restitution to the previous tenant. He usually knows what he’s talking about. He added that the tenancy board is following the transition closely. Seriously thinking about selling when the current tenants leave, they indicated they were only staying for 18-24 months. These regulations are getting out of hand, soon there won’t be anything for people to rent except for a box with no parking.
that’s my bad, you are absolutely correct.
Not technically correct. One can only go bankrupt/broke when you can’t fund the operating side anymore. If you have the operating side sorted out (appropriate level of surplus) you can run up the capital side as much as you want. Just need to keep in mind the interest costs from the borrowing used to fund the capital side goes to the operating side. Government has the ability to run a prolonged deficit with more borrowing due to their unique ability to tax its citizens which makes lenders/investors comfortable enough, but that is a luxury individuals and companies don’t have.
Depends on life circumstances. If single and no plan of having kids and not locked into Victoria long term then a nice downtown condo might be more suitable. Simpler life and smaller mortgage are worth something.
It’s a simple concept: If the inflation becomes unbearable, BoC would raise the rates, not drop them. BoC is hoping that it wouldn’t have to raise the rates. BoC is one of the few central banks with a single mandate: maintaining the inflation at a stable level of 2% and within the range of 1-3%.
If inflation becomes unbearable, BoC will raise rates.
Marko- I bought at the beginning of the 8 year drought in 1994. Not sure how I would have done in the market during that time. Might have got wiped out by the tech crash of 2000. Markets are unpredictable and I haven’t had the best track record. You can never time markets.
I’ve gotten to know several Ukrainians and spoken to many more and some are happy to be in Canada and want to stay. Some however, would return tomorrow if the war ended. What we don’t realize is the number of countries that have little to no representation in Canada. Indonesia is one, Spain is another. What has driven people to Canada is war. My grandfather and grandmother left Eastern Europe to escape the 1st World War. Marko’s parents left to avoid the Balkan war. People also leave to escape overcrowding, like China and India. Things must be very bad in their homelands for them to pull up stakes and move to a strange land. I sometimes wonder if Canada is the land of opportunity it once was given the high cost of living. Even those with a university education that is not recognized here resort to menial jobs and find things difficult. That is truly a waste of talent.
100% they will have to imo. They will do it quietly in the background.
Financially speaking I would buy a SFH with a suite assuming I had enough income to take on an 800k mortgage.
My favorite ETF vdy.to is up 43% over 12 months + dividends. That is simply not sustainable and real estate has been flat for 5 years (we’ve never seen a flat period longer than 8 years).
The only thing stopping the immigration flood gates is public sentiment. Until that opens up there is not going to be the type of demographic pressure that will drive these high prices. We’re seeing a flattening out due to all the upward pressures being removed. I think they will reopen the immigration flood gates though because they have to. Once inflation gets unbearable, they’ll drop rates, i dont think it’ll be enough. The demographics are way too skewed older. We’ll need youngsters to come in and wipe butts and redo roofs etc. Prices rise again etc. Short term I’d want to be a renter and take advantage of decreasing rental rates without tying up cash. Longer term I’d want to own a property of some kind.
Philosophical question: if you were a 40 y/o renter with, say, 350k liquid today, how would you deploy that? Buy a house? Condo? Stay liquid in financial markets and keep renting? Other? Many variables of course, but curious to hear folks thoughts in a vacuum under present circumstances.
I know that feller Marko. This is a small town. I agree with Thursty for once – the wealth fund is a good idea. But somewhat also begrudgingly agree with stay off my lawn Frank that I doubt we could do it right. I guess that’s double think.
Because it doesn’t really exist as new money that could be used to pay down the deficit. It is just accounting so it gets added to the capital side of the deficit. One of the tricks all governments use to justify more spending is separate spending into capital and operating. Operating is what you spend on food, travel, entertainment, etc. Capital is what you spend on buying a house etc. The house value gets added to your net worth so it doesn’t count as expenditure the way buying food does. When you borrow to fund both, they separate the two because ones is considered worse than the other but they are both debt.
Not too sure we have a debt problem, I myself would throw everything at oil gas and mining and pump the revenue side .
If Carney can come up suddenly with 25 billion for the Sovereign Wealth Fund why doesn’t he instead put it towards the debt or the deficit? A far wiser use of funds in my opinion.
Marko , agree lots of opportunity for those who are motivated. Doing business has never been easier in Canada , so get out there and buy a house and stop dithering
Canada is a small country, 95% of the people live on 2% of the land. I haven’t verified those numbers, just made them up, might be close.
Victoria is so small I know everyone you are referencing 🙂 The credit union guy bid on an exterior painting job on a house we were building on Bear Mountain in 2009. One day I am working backfilling a retaining wall with our skidsteer and I stopped to re-fuel it and he asked me hold the ladder as he was painting fasica boards in a tricky spot. He is a couple of years younger than me so he was maybe 20 at the time. He proceeds to tell me how he is going to go back to Camosun to take courses as he wants to go into finance, etc., and I thinking inside my head “I’ve heard this story before.” 🙂 I guess he went back to Camosun while running his exterior painting business. Started as a teller at a credit union and by 2014 he was approving a complicated $800k owner-builder mortgage for me (which was a lot back then). Did quite a few mortgages for me after that, great guy. He went on to be very successful including construction/development.
It’s not a fund. Have you forgotten “The budget will balance itself”. From the King of delusion.
Cheer up Frank, Canada is doing pretty good but we can always do better. I myself think this fund is a good idea ,
This is Canada, we don’t do anything right. Except be politically correct.
If the new Sovereign Wealth Fund was modeled on something like Norway’s where they fund it with oil revenue and can’t use it to fund pet government projects I would agree that it is a good thing. Setting up a cash bucket funded with debt and use it to fund pet projects that the private sector views as too risky sounds like it has a lot of potential to go horribly wrong. It is not like we have a sudden new surplus of resource royalty income that is being saved for either a rainy day or when the resource runs out.
Yup, interested to see if they can finally do some real disruption to the industry via tech.
Real-Estate Firm Re/Max to Be Sold to The Real Brokerage
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/re-max-nears-sale-to-tech-focused-real-estate-firm-13761928
Real-Estate Firm Re/Max to Be Sold to The Real Brokerage
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/re-max-nears-sale-to-tech-focused-real-estate-firm-13761928
I’ll contribute one thin dime. Delusional thinking, we’re bankrupt.
Canadian Soverign Wealth Fund. Sounds good so far.
Victoria Real Estate Board
April 27, 2026
Month Apr Apr
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 531 642
New Listings 1,435 1,629
Active Listings 3,636 3,426
Sales pace picked up last week. With four days left I think there is a chance we match last year +/- 20 sales.
Numbeo keeps track of rental yield (income/price) for 384 cities including Victoria.
Victoria is 5.8% ( roughly middle of the pack).
Highest in Canada is Edmonton , at 10.3%.
Over 25 years, that rental yield difference (compounded) would return more than 3X the rent for an Edmonton property vs Victoria. And that’s comparing gross yield, after expenses the net return difference between an Edmonton vs Victoria rental would be much higher than 3X.
Someone investing in a Victoria rental (vs Edmonton, or other city with similar high yield) would need to be hoping for bigger price gains than Edmonton. For rental properties, good luck with that.
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_current.jsp?displayColumn=1
Some of the downtown condos without assigned parking stalls are starting to look attractive on a price‑to‑income (Gross Income Multiplier) basis. That said, I’m still hesitant to buy a downtown condo as an investment because I’m not keen on purchasing units in buildings that are already twenty years old or more.
Despite global uncertainty, Vancouver Island’s market remains stronger than the mainland. Prices and sales volumes have held up better than expected, but this resilience is not experienced uniformly across all buyer groups in Victoria.
The key driver of this unevenness is buyer confidence. Higher‑income and established homeowners remain relatively insulated — they have accumulated equity, stronger savings, and greater flexibility. Their confidence in the market remains stable.
Lower‑income and first‑time buyers, however, are facing a very different reality. Rising mortgage rates, higher living costs, and stagnant wage growth are eroding their purchasing power. This group is far more sensitive to economic uncertainty, and the combination of global instability and domestic affordability pressures is weighing heavily on their confidence.
This divergence is a hallmark of the K‑shaped economy, where different income groups move in opposite economic directions. In practical terms, the entry‑level and lower‑income segments of the Victoria market are under significantly more pressure than the middle‑income or move‑up segments. The K‑shaped economy is widening the gap between those who can still participate in the market and those who are being pushed further to the sidelines.
I guess drug dealers are a good source for some quick cash. Makes you wonder where the private lenders get their cash.
Lol what??
What is financing like for these multi- unit properties? I doubt banks want to offer their best rates, private lenders are over 10% and usually do not offer more than one year. I haven’t heard of any government financing programs.
I had a property in Langford, .4 acres with a shack on it. I pondered the idea of townhouses but didn’t want the hassles. Sold it in 2017 and bought a commercial property that I was renting for my business. I guess larger, more experienced developers have their ways, I’ll leave it to them. I foresaw nothing but stress and headaches.
Some people don’t want to go bigger….
‘Also add in that you have everything from people operating with cash to people taking 12% private money for these projects//
””””
The bigger picture is not about that 12% private loan.. it’s about the liquidity they need to get moving forward into their next bigger/larger project around 30 unit+…. there are people taking on much higher rate you could ever think of…( used to be 59.999 now the province had lower that limit i believe into 30%(?)
I admire their passion and courage and simple philosophy- they add values to their own projects along the way. I am sure they will be doing just amazing on their next project.
People talk and we live in a VERY small town here… there are plumber, realtor, or architecture or even someone who has access to MLS or some guy worked(?) at local credit union that have seen all sides of the numbers( trades/contracts) makes their own project profitable. Also seen some other commercial realtors buddied up with their friends to pool resources together via GP/LP etc. they got the land cheap as they have direct access or 1st bid opportunity… it’s never nor never going to show up on MLS.
Ya but then you are working so definitely wouldn’t count that as profit.
Esquimalt considers pausing new applications for small scale multi units
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HkTobQ5Nco
That is what makes the smaller builder/developers so difficult to analyze. You have everything from people building fourplexes that have a development and construction manager (or hire a company to GC) to people drafting their own drawings and doing a lot of the skilled and physical work. I have a missing middle project listed right now where the developer (a talented tradesperson) drew his own drawings. On top of it all he is doing his own sales too (already has one under contract and not even finished) via mere posting. He also build half the thing himself with a person he has employed.
You can easily save 20% hustling.
Your own GC – 10% savings
Draft your own drawings – 2% savings
MLS mere posting – 1.5% savings
If you have a trade (electrical, plumbing, framing, etc.) – another 2 to 3% savings.
etc.
That is why some are able to do okay in crappy markets too. They simple have a large competitive advantage doing a lot of the things themselves.
Also add in that you have everything from people operating with cash to people taking 12% private money for these projects.
Has nothing to do with the value of her property; moreso, BC Government has a regulation in place that is 110% useless that is going to delay a SFH that could accommodate a family coming to market by 10 months (mother-in-law would sell 10 months sooner if they were able to get a permit to build her garden suite 10 months sooner).
Ya especially if the characteristics of the yard makes excavation for a traditional slab foundation difficult.
Ya the smaller the adu the more open in they are inside so not much room for creativity. But they are quicker and the cost is going to be fixed .
Problem with prefab is you can’t really renovate and change layout afterwards but with a garden suite that’s not likely to begin with.
So that’s a 4plex? And the 700k “profit” includes all the self performed work?
Much easier to drop a prefab , lots of them built to bc code and while they are at it put it down on screw piles , cheap cheap
Where’s Jimmy Carter when you need him?
I can’t see how selling their mother’s home sooner or later would result in any difference in the value of her property. Making 800k on a “missing middle” property isn’t helping either.
I helped a family buy an acreage a few years ago. They owner-built a home (I gave them my study guide and they passed the exam) and now they want to build a large garden suite on the same property for their elderly mother/mother-in-law.
As they received occupancy on their new home only 8 months ago now BC housing is forcing them to wait another 10 months to write the exam as you can’t apply for a second owner builder within 18 months. Elderly mom living in a family sized home in Saanich so now we have a 100% unnecessary delay in bringing inventory to market. What a joke. They already wrote the exam and it is for the exact same property!
There is so much non-sense going on in the background that makes housing expensive for no useful reason.
Realistically I would think it would be than $800k at asking prices. Tricky part is accounting for how they are paying themselves for all their work on the project. Your could pay yourself $200,000 architectural/design services and $400,000 for GCing/labour and then after those costs to yourself maybe you are at 800k.
If the prices dropped 100k there goes 400k revenue. The concrete numbers I have on a project that has grossed $3.9 million in Saanich is about $3.2 +/- in expenses.
Would someone mind sharing the sale price of 3545 Ryder Hesjedal Way in Royal Bay?
1.5 each is a tough sell in a neighborhood where you can get a renovated SFH with a suite for that price.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29611658/2-1118-munro-st-esquimalt-saxe-point
was looking into their numbers via ins, close to 800k profit on these 4 units?
All the mcbriar ones are still sitting. Ones parking and private outdoor spaces and under $1M are selling.
Several of the busier missing middle developers right now are focusing in on the less prime areas of Saanich. The rational is the $1 million and below product is selling while $1.2 and up is sitting for the most part. The reason behind Saanich is no DP, BP around four months or so right now. It’s crazy that in Saanich three of my clients waited more than 12 months for DP + BP for small garden suites and now Saanich is giving out BPs for 10,000 sq.ft. multiplexes in four months. Garden suites all along should have been a seven business day turnaround for BP, no DP.
As far as Battleford two bed units for $399,000 -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29644433/-4-95-battleford-ave-saanich-gorge
That should keep some of the investors happy for awhile. Eventually it will come down to heads in beds.
New purpose built construction won’t be cheap, they will just offer incentives as they want higher rent stabilization at the expense of vacancy.
The rental market is still soft, with too many one‑bedroom units and not nearly enough two‑bedrooms. That hasn’t stopped landlords from trying to push rents higher, but tenants are paying attention. With all the new construction coming online, renters are more aware of their options and less willing to overpay.
For example, an owner substantially updated their older one-bedroom condominium and listed it at $1,950 per month. At that time that was a reasonable rent but the rental market changed and the landlord kept that unit vacant for 12 months trying to find that elusive renter. After a year they dropped to $1,750 and it rented.
My opinion is that there is still more downward movement to come in the one-bedroom rental market.
Agreed. For example, it doesn’t do well with facts that have changed . For example, it sometimes forgets that the increase to the cap gains inclusion rate to 2/3 was cancelled. If you correct it, or ask it more directly, it will agree and get it right. . But there’s so much older training info telling it that the rate was rising it can’t seem to let go of all of it.
Keeping track of knowledge that has changed is a big deal for professionals. So anything important AI does should be verified. Especially in a field like law or accounting, full of ”grey areas” where things change all the time. That’s not such a big deal in programming or math/physics, with more fixed rules/knowledge..
Laughing at the new listings at 95 Battleford. I get that the lot was probably dirt cheap, but trying to build missing middle on the worst lot in Victoria is an odd choice. I believe part of the appeal of missing middle is that you get to live in a nicer neighbourhood at a lower price point.
Not full replacement but definitely productivity enhancement. It’s getting pretty good at creating first drafts of excel models and ppt presentations too. Meeting minutes are also a game changer for juniors.
Its helpful for sure, but be careful about relying on it too much. Its definitely not a replacement for professionals yet.
Are you using proper prompts? Our tax group uses it and my understanding is that it’s quite effective. You need someone knowledgeable at the wheel but it definitely cuts out a lot of grunt work done by juniors.
We’ll see about that. Definitely not in its current iteration. you can manipulate it to give you whatever outcome you want. For taxation issues for example, you can get two completely conflicting answers depending on your bias in the info you give it. Try doing that with an auditor.
Sorry for the double post. tech issue today.
AI is suppose to replace many professional jobs.
https://youtube.com/shorts/6BB7-uvjE5w?si=EFjvNRf89dNFrgU9
AI is suppose to replace most professions.
https://youtube.com/shorts/6BB7-uvjE5w?si=EFjvNRf89dNFrgU9
Ironcondo, it’s a different world lol , I guess it just shows old school common sense is very profitable today
Alot of furious chatgpt searches about what is polymarket right now. $$$Cha-ching$$$ goes the casino lights in my head.
>>> The bank rate increase next meeting should have some interesting impacts.
Increase?… I don’t think so. But if you’re feeling it. … That’s a 200:1 long shot. That you can bet on … https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-april
That won’t happen.
How does raising interest rates open the Strait of Hormuz?
The bank rate increase next meeting should have some interesting impacts.
Just like my deck.
No timeline, whenever the timing works.
April 20, 2026
Month Apr Apr
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional 361 642
New Listings 1,078 1,629
Active Listings 3,577 3,426
On pace for about 610 sales for the month +/-
And what about population growth?
Housing starts numbers out for March and now the strata starts are starting to collapse as well -> https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/New-Homes-Registry-Report-March-2026.pdf
Even with recording setting PBR starts it won’t be enough to offset the drop in SFH and strata and looks like we are on track for a drop in housing starts this year compared to last. No surprise.
Marko- What’s your timeline for your project? 2-3 years?
Sold for 97% of asking and the average sale for SFHs is core over the last 90 days (sample size 332) is 98% so not sure 97% is by any means indicative of multiple offers.
Figured that being the case as the house sold within a week of coming to market at a little less than ask.
I have a couple of SFH listings right now where we went into multiples and the accepted offers are above asking price. The $1.2 to $1.5 turn-key core SFH market is quite active.
I am struggling with the below $1 million SFHs listings (that aren’t on lots big enough for missing middle projects) but had one go unconditional yesterday in Esquimalt for 790k and have an accepted offer on another but certainly that market is on the slower side of things for that segment.
Above $2 million also seems to be a bit slower but getting a solid amount of showings on the few listings I have above $2.
I had made an unsuccessful unconditional offer on the adjacent house last year, but I ended up pivoting into buying a bigger lot in Fairfield where I can build townhomes instead of a multiplex (50′ width on Avebury is too narrow for townhomes). My friend/builder is getting a little tired of commuting into the COV with traffic these days for his own projects so I’ll probably have to be my own GC. I feel a lot more comfortable GCing a small townhome missing middle project versus multiplex (sprinklers, etc.) I’ve been keep up on my courses to maintain my builder’s license so might be useful in the end.
Yes, it went into multiples, but my clients listened to contract writing advice 🙂 so we end up getting it for a decent amount below asking despite the multiples.
Interesting, this is actually more conservative than people’s leverage pre stress test. Ironically a lot of those people who were conservative in thinking and didn’t take that leverage are now priced out of the sfh market.
I don’t think people are taking on $1M mortgages on $200k incomes
The problem isn’t REITs existing — it’s that the capital cycle is colliding with conditions that no longer support the assumptions developers made from 2019–2022. All those over zealous Pro Formas that were being pumped out assuming 4–6% rent growth, cheap debt, and sub‑5% vacancy.
What we have is a timing mismatch between when projects were underwritten and the economic reality they’re being delivered into with current higher cap rates, higher financing costs, and softening rent growth.
If anything, restricting institutional capital would reduce the pool of money available for new construction, which is the opposite of what supply‑starved markets need. Ironically, the very investors you want to ban are the ones most capable of funding large‑scale, multi‑year construction.
Private investors may be stepping back, but the Canadian government could take on a greater equity stake. There are political risks in doing so. Yet, a majority government for 3 to 5 years is a good start. If private capital is retreating due to cyclical pressures, the federal government may be the only actor with the balance sheet and time horizon to keep construction going.
Less dodgy than a 500k mortgage on 120k actually.
A million dollar mortgage on 200k household income? Yikes, sounds dodgy…
Yet to see something nice go for a deal though…
No the developer is still having trouble unloading. Part of the game though. The current Victoria market is much more local income and equity driven than foreign buyers. So no excuses for those that can’t afford to get in, 200k house hold income should get you pretty close to a millionaire dollar mortgage and that’s enough to get into an average SFH in a avg neighborhood.
“Underwater at close” …. Sure the foreign buyer can walk away, but they forfeit their deposit. And for those luxury (“>$2000/sq sft”) units you’re referring to, a typical foreign buyer would have paid 20-25%+ already prior to closing. So they walk away from that, and developer keeps the deposit, which could be more than the developer’s ultimate loss. At least the foreign buyer saves 20% foreign buyer tax by walking away.
A “ban” isn’t needed. REITS in Canada don’t own and aren’t buying SFH to begin with. The residential REITS overwhelmingly own apartments, because of the economies of scale.
The bigger risk to SFH is that they are being bought by mom-n-pop developers to tear down for missing middle units. A typical Victoria SFH househunter won’t be outbid by a REIT, but may well be outbid by a mom-n-pop developer planning a teardown.
I meant to say apartments should NOT be used for AirBnB.
Looks like some SFD have started to move to pending in the core. Most at under ask or after price drops.
That’s worked up until now, many of the new luxury builds (kengo, butterfly, soon to be oak ridge park) targeted at the Chinese mainland market (>$2000/sft) are in serious trouble with buyers just walking away from their down payments when they are underwater at close. Good luck suing for the difference when the buyer is in China.
Win for existing home owners, Chinese money enabled many extremely profitable exists for westside owners who then purchased elsewhere in Vancouver and drove prices up there. Some of those other owners then you existed out of the Vancouver market and came to Victoria. It doesn’t take a lot of strong bids to bring prices up in a particular area.
All REITs should be banned from being able to buy SFDs to rent them.
>> Chinese money is a real thing in Vancouver…
Right. And when they buy a new apartment, they hand over some of that “Chinese money” (+GST) to the Canadian developer who pays his Canadian employees and remits the GST to gov’t . Seems like a win/win.
Chinese money is a real thing in Vancouver… Especially on the west side.
> Also, apartments should be used as an AirBnB.
Currently the government has identified “bogeymen” groups that are causing the housing crisis. Namely foreigners, second home owners, Airbnb’s, satellite families, vacant homes etc. And so they’re prevented or taxed away .
Solution used in other countries is restricting their owning to brand new apartments. Clever idea, so we get the economic benefits from these groups living here as well as the benefits from new housing being built. Eventually the housing becomes used by all groups. And we stop scapegoating these groups by huge taxes and prohibitions. Just limit them to buying in new buildings, with a minimum holding period (5+ years) . As it is, new apartment construction is falling and government is starting to throw money at developers to encourage it.
Allowing bogeymen to buy in new apartments would cost nothing and encourage new builds.
I still think there should be a cap on how many AirBnBs one person or corporation can have. Also, apartments should be used as an AirBnB. Maybe with the price of fuel there will be less travel in general.
Nice to see Kelowna’s Independent Conservative MLA introduce a bill to repeal the spec tax.
Absurd that 1.7 million BCers need to prove their innocence each year as part of a bloated inefficient waste of time. Especially since vacancy rates are now 3-4% and we apparently need to spend more money to incentivize builders. Stopping the spec tax and Airbnb restrictions will lead to more building and economic growth.
https://x.com/TaraArmstrongBC/status/2045169959207383474
Sign the petition here https://taraarmstrongbc.ca/petitions
Kelowna airbnb ban is ending. Victoria should follow after this summer.
Marko, you going to put an offer on 2728 Avebury? Looks like lot value.
@Marko, were there other offers on 1045 Valewood?
Yet another this sounds like good advice but does not seem like the way they are doing things in new built houses. It is not like the price is cheap either. I am planning on doing more research but starting to get the feeling like even expensive houses are not built to last.
Re flooring
Everybody’s taste is different. I have tried several iterations and am currently at: Tile at entrances. Would for sure do this in any house I lived in. Larger tiles and smooth grout for maintenance reasons. Real linoleum (marmorean) in the kitchen. Not everybody’s choice but we like it, it is very durable, reasonable cost and the big win for us is that there was zero issue with chemical sensitive people in the house. Oak and fir finished in place with natural wool area rugs in LR, DR, and hallways. Again, not everybody’s choice but they look good, pretty durable (40+ years), and pretty conventional. We had to move out for a couple of weeks while the initial off gassing happened and still put up with 6 months of headaches with the refinishing and the rugs are not cheap but very comfortable, zero off gassing, and can be taken elsewhere for cleaning. Currently tile in one bathroom which if I did it over again, would I use a heated floor and I would use the largest tile possible with machine cut edges and epoxy grout (very small grout lines). One den and one bedroom with wall to wall. I like the feel but after 25 years the underlay is breaking down causing issues for the sensitive members of the household. The carpet was a remanent from a hospital renovation so industrial quality. Looks pretty much like the day it went down so no complaints there but the underlay is an issue and the first year of off gassing was a problem. Remaining bedrooms and bathroom are vinyl which will eventually get replaced with something. Toying with the idea of cork but not sure about the durability. Most likely either linoleum with area rugs or wood floor with rugs. If I ever went vinyl again I would make sure there was no embossed pattern in the material. Much easier to clean if it is dead smooth. Workshop is concrete with a few hard foam patches to stand on. Not ideal but I haven’t found anything better that will stand up to grinder spray, welding slag, and swarf being tracked over it. Epoxy is out (doesn’t do well with welding). I have heard waxed concrete can work well but not so unhappy with the concrete that I need to do anything. I would be concerned with waxed floors being slippery when wet and I am sure it won’t stand up any better to chips from hammering or dropping pieces of steel.
You can probably tell that after 45 years of ownership I am more interested in functionality than the latest fashion craze.
This is the main issue.
What flooring material is it? I’d be concerned if it’s cupping (turned up at the edges). If it’s wood, then could indicate moisture, and pretty much any other material could indicate proper expansion gapping wasn’t followed.
You’re never going to get “best” flooring in any newer build. It simply costs too much. Most of the products developers use wouldn’t be close to best.
Shag carpet
When looking at a newer house what sort of flooring is best?? Looked at a four year old house in Langford and the flooring seemed both scratched and the joins seemed to be turning up. Like little ridges. How do I know if it is a good floor. Tried googling it and it seemed complicated.
Patrick, ya I guess baby’s don’t sleep too well. Okay forget that one lol .
3984 Hollydene Place was a marginal deal even at 950K$. The house was not liveable. Don’t know if you could get a mortgage on it. 1) have to remediate tear the house down 2) build a bunch of retaining walls 3) and the south facing backyard is blocked by 80 feet trees in the back. It is a very tricky lot to build on. Factor in the extra time to get it build ready + engineering reports, IMO, the price was still rich. FWIW.
With the inventory build-up and much slower sales, developers are in a cash bind. Many in development properties showing up on MLS. The question is how long can the developers hold out if they have to service interest on the larger projects? Don’t think they can service the 1%/month interest for longer than 12 months before they are severely under water.
>>> and sleep like a baby.
… waking up every two hours crying 🙂
Interesting perspective….
Vicre, yep we all do it differently. I never had a problem putting up my own cash as I always liked being in the drivers seat and sleep like a baby. I still do business the same way today and it works for me . But I do I stand where your coming from .
Not sure how the risk goes down, it’s still your money at the end of the day. I would rather my corp. go bankrupt over $1M financing debt than myself personally loosing $1M cash….
Ya but then you are effectively just working a job and not making that much excess returns. Think about if instead of developing you just got a job working for a developer or contractor and put your self financed money into a balanced fund instead. How much excess returns are you actually making doing the development yourself in a flat market which itself carries far more risk than the former scenario.
Turning a new built strata building to rental then to co-op!
https://cheknews.ca/victoria-considers-supporting-new-co-op-housing-development-1318824/
I just think returns are that great today but in guessing that for some builders from start to finish they might have wind in they’re back
Vicre, I’m guessing in the small developments say 4 to 8 units the builder had more skin in the project and risk goes down . You might not be as beholden to the banks as u would in much larger developments. When I was at it i was mostly self financed so be it if I sold or rented I wasn’t bothered .
No more risky than than mom and pops. Most mom and pop developers don’t count their own salaries into profit. Once you do that, you will see that the returns aren’t great.
Vicre, ya at that level there’s no room for error. I’m guessing that’s why a lot of developers in Van have been on the ropes . Risky business
Hard to get favourable construction financing with unentitled land…. Typically you run a pro forma to calculate the max land value for the development, buy the land, go through design and entitlement then secure financing with updated pro-forma that is signed off by the lender and then try to hit those numbers, obviously if the market moves and you can get better prices you go for it but you are not sitting around waiting for people to bid that wishful number. You want to hit your presale target as efficiently as possible then depending on your level of risk and your assessment of the market you leave a % to be sold later. In a rental project you are just trying to get to rent stabilization and normalized vacancy as quickly as possible and then exist via a sale to a investor typically in 3-5 years.
Lenders don’t like to lend to people just “winging it”….
What you mean, you still have a sale price. So the feds taking out the gst means the developer will be able to sell at a higher price than otherwise.
100% agreed, obviously you have a construction budget and some sort of idea of what the finished product might sell or rent for but the math is rarely accurate. A much bigger part of it is good business intuition especially for the smaller projects.
A year delay (which isn’t uncommon whatsoever) in rezoning/DP/BP process or construction throws off all your numbers big time.
To do projects it’s nice to figure out the math but there’s definitely a percentage of winging it . It’s not for the light hearted and shite can come out from nowhere and flatten you.
wonder what this potential deal will go down at ->
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1skpdej/coop_housing_on_victoria_city_council_agenda/
I’ve been curious driving down Douglas why they haven’t started market renting it, but makes a bit more sense now.
Just curious how do you account for IRR when the federal government comes out and waives 5% GST for first time buyers? I’ve now had 8 first-time buyers take advantage of this as it’s a big savings. I would say five would have bought used re-sale stock if it wasn’t for the 5% GST savings.
It has defeintively helped a lot of builders/developers move product in the last few months and it is something they absolutely could have not planned for a couple of years ago when they started these projects.
Large developers all have development managers, for the big players it isn’t a huge factor but when you are a small builder/developer whether you can navigate the DP/BP in 6 months or 18 months makes a huge difference.
What exactly are you saying because you are saying a whole lot of nothing. They simply have to keep building irrelevant of the market (within reason of course but when you have things in-house you have margin) especially given they have in-house design and construction. They sold out a townhome development then they sold out an eightplex and now they are building a large fourplex. Some projects depending on the market they will do well and some they won’t. I recently sold a condo after 8 months on market where my per hour was not more than $25/hr and other transactions I make a few thousand per hour. It’s called business. You can’t magically IRR everything.
Like tangibly tell me what a small-time builder/developer is supposed to do? How is the IRR going to predict what their finished product will sell for in two years when it is finished?
I doubt it’s that time consuming and there are some obvious spinoffs to this consulting business (remember, she is an architect and her husband is a GC/builder).
It’s like when I go to Croatia and showcase expensive real estate on YT -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxnjXx1MOaM
It’s not just for fun, there are spinoffs (I am licensed in Croatia and people contact me through YT).
Competition is going to be there whether she services the competition or not so might as well make money on it. I was at a missing middle property I have coming as a listing this past Saturday and one developer came with two other competing developers and they were giving him advice based on their current projects on how to deal with a tree that is going to be an issue. All three will have competing product and they are constantly texting eachother in a Whatsapp group consultants, tradespeople, etc.
btw) those 2023 stats are for Census families, which are 2 or more people. Excluding single person households.
Good news! StatsCan reports Greater Victoria 2023 median family income is $121,850. That’s 3rd highest in Canada of 40 cities. Highest is Barrie (remote Toronto tech/professionals)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Canada_by_median_household_income
Compared to other Canadian cities, Victoria had a much bigger increase(+41%) in median income from 2020 to 2023. Likely highly paid Victoria remote workers are part of the reason for that like for Barrie.
It’s not the number of people that is primary driver, it’s the number of people with $. You can have a 10% increase in total population but concentrated to minimum wage workers, that would likely have much less of an impact than say a total population decrease of 10% but within that total the number of millionaires actually increase by 20%.
It seems like you’re referring to percentage population growth, rather than absolute. So that if in 2040, if Victoria grows 1% from 500,000 to 505,000 that would be 1% growth and less % than it is now. But Oak Bay won’t have more land or oceanfront than it has now. And there’ll be 5,000 more people added in 2041 that would love to live there. That seems bullish to me.
I expect big RE price appreciation over the next 25 years and beyond. Especially in Victoria, the best weather/climate city in Canada and rated # 1 small city in the world multiple years by Conde Naste readers.
You don’t think Bosa or any of the large developers have savvy design teams and relationships with city and trades? They can trade and swap density and amenities across different projects with the city with consideration to site characteristics to optimize their irr. A hot market hides all kinds of issues, everyone is an expert at that time. You could have bought the worst property ever right before covid and overpaid for every trade in 2020 and 2021 and still make money if you sold in late 2021 and early 2022. Conversely you could be the most experienced and best capitalized developer but if the market works against you then you are in trouble.
I am not saying they in particular are incompetent as clearly they’ve carved out a niche. I am saying not having a disciplined exist target is not a good long term business plan strategy if you plan to develop in scale.
>I also have an online business I promote that generates steady revenue. It doesn’t mean my real estate business is struggling.
You’ve claimed multiple times that your online business is passive income and takes you virtually zero time to run. The wife’s consulting business on the other hand is likely the opposite of that. Also why create potential competition for yourself if you have that much of an edge? Lol probably the same reason people sell courses teaching other people how to make money?
If they were really confident in their abilities and the market then they would enter into commercial structures with land owners that have more upside for them.
Tough rental market to read. A couple of clients reached out recently to ask advice re how much to put their rentals for (nice units in Vic West) and I suggested numbers I thought were on the higher side and both had really good interest and rented out quickly. I would have thought all the PBR down Esquimalt Rd and throughout downtown would be putting more pressure on rents. Rents have dropped, but from high peaks. Didn’t think a 880 sq.ft. unit would go quickly at $3,500/month.
These are absolutely the last people I would worry about.
i/ Every project they’ve built has been a success. Their eightplex on Dominion they sold 7 out of the 8 units before they even had occupancy in a very difficult condo market.
ii/ Wife is a competent architect and knows bylaws and land use inside and out; therefore, puts them at a huge advantage in terms of acquiring land (and they’ve been securing really good deals too in my opinion).
iii/ Husband is extremely knowledgeable when it comes to building science and construction. The exterior envelope details on their projects in terms of flashings, etc., are really next level you don’t find on your average builder project. I actually don’t think I’ve ever met anyone as knowledgably as him. Also, very savvy builder in terms of managing costs.
Long story short they can design it in-house for free and can make sure it is designed in a very cost-efficient manner in terms of construction costs and they deliver a very solid product. I think they are too busy to be running IRR numbers as they are busy working on on tangible things like securing DP/BPs and the actual construction. This isn’t BOSA level where you have number crunchers. Your relationship with city staft, tradespeople, etc., and savviness for design/construction/business in general is far more important than IRR calculations.
Not to mention I am seeing her name on a ton of application drawings, so she has a successful architecture business on top of being a developer/builder.
Yes, they’ve also been consulting for a while.
I also have an online business I promote that generates steady revenue. It doesn’t mean my real estate business is struggling, it is the best its ever been for me, by a wide margin. 11 unconditional contracts so far this month with another 10 accepted offers and it is only half way through the month in a very slow market.
It is going to be super close, but I think we will max out at 3,950 if I had to throw out a wild guess/prediction. New listings are starting to slow down (I think some sellers that do not have to sell are getting the message that it is a difficult market out there and opting not to list right now).
we couldn’t even handle that increase. Look at what happened with rents, hospitals, and roads. Total rethink of the economy is needed to increase investments and productivity and discourage nonproductive investments.
And assessed at $1.3 million, mainly for the 13,000 sq ft lot.
Buyer got a deal 150K under asking price at 3984 Hollydene Pl Saanich!
https://housesigma.com/bc/saanich-real-estate/3984-hollydene-pl/home/56k97wqkk9RYKRjD?id_listing=GMnKYqxxXRj3w1Qr&utm_source=watch_email&utm_medium=default&utm_campaign=default&utm_content=address-link
A 36% increase in a population of over a billion people is a catastrophe. A 36% increase in a population of over 30 million is manageable. We don’t want another 36% increase in the next 25 years. Anywhere.
Many people will be surprised to learn that Canada had the same population growth as India between 200 and 2025. This was partly responsible (in addition to disinflation, global drop in rates, and skewed balance between capital and labor) for the boom in real estate from the year 2000. This is likely to reverse in the next 25 years. The population growth will be much less, inflation will be persistent, and labor will gain relative to capital. Real estate (buying and renting) as a business model will be tested.
I guarantee trans mountain would not have been delivered for 5.4 billion regardless who was building it. Major projects are over budget all the time regardless if it’s public or private. You don’t hear about the private sector ones going over unless you are going over the annual reports or asking management team pointed questions.
Yeah, but they still don’t accept the last pipeline as needed. Then government (feds) taking over a 5.4 billion private sector project because the private sector declared the regulations were unworkable. Then somehow government regulated itself into spending 34 billion in taxpayers money when none would have spent if not for regulatory incompetence. This is also another big reason private sector investment is staying away right now.
Preparing for a possiblity of $100/barrel oil and mitigation strategies is one of the more prudent things this government has done. Maybe they want an excuse to put the pipeline through.
Umm really , ya a total shit show . Man this level of stupid is kinda entertaining, but u are right this province is a mess when it comes to investing
People also don’t see the top until they lost money. That’s why disciplined investment professionals have target entries and exists based on pre-determined metrics. Marko thinks exit IRR isn’t real life but I think its about to teach some of these mom and pop multiplexers a real life lesson (lol the husband and wife one that’s heavy on social media is already trying to branch out via a consulting business model). A developer’s purpose is to keep developing consistently and make money, not trying to time a homerun every time. There’s the old saying that no one ever went broke taking profits.
Good luck, remember the house can always be renoed, the lot and neighborhood can’t be.
Thanks VicRE – i less torn about the best deal vs finding the best place given it will very likely be the only one we ever own so we have been a tad picky. Appreciate the sentiment though – i’m not waiting for a bottom by any means.
BC politics too funny today…Gov unraveling over DRIPA and now doesn’t have the votes for it’s amendments… So, suddenly the thing killing investment in BC is not that important and will be delayed and brought back later and apparently won’t be a confidence vote now either. Then of course there has to something else to blame for BC’s economy tanking other than what the gov has done has done, so the premier calls for an emergency meeting on strait Hormuz with the 1st ministers. If people have work, the buying opportunities in BC real estate will only get better because this gong show is only going to get dumber.
For most folks , they won’t see the bottom until it’s in the rear view mirror , but maybe that’s like most investments
Rush, you gotta just suck it up and buy this year, don’t try and get too cute only to get burned if the market turn on you. your upside is probably 10% more at most if you keep waiting but you can be seriously priced out of a SFH if you don’t take advantage of this current cycle. Right now you got lot of choices and sellers willing to negotiate for most entry level homes. Remember once you buy you are done and can start enjoying your new home (assuming its something you like and will live in for the foreseeable future). Whether or not you got an absolute steal is pretty much meaningless outside of “flexing” on other people.
I also thought probably overpaid when I purchased my current principal residence but at the end of the day it was a nice house in a neighborhood we wanted, within our budget and the wife liked it. That over rode my inherent desire in trying to get the best possible deal given my day job revolves around getting the best deal possible. Zero regrets ever since even though I probably left some money on the table, even if the market was flat or declined it wouldn’t have really mattered as long as we could pay the bills.
@Marko – you still thinking we see 4000 listings this year?
That doesn’t help landlords with new units who paid peak pricing or perspective developers. It is good for landlords with under market rents that are turning over though. I am looking at cashflow neutrality and its getting real close and in some instances it is there so that signals to me now is a good time to start putting out offers where the numbers work. No one can never time the absolute bottom but it is pretty easy to avoid the peak.
A free‑month concession in Year One doesn’t mean it won’t show up again in Year Two. Some buildings normalize concessions as part of their ongoing leasing strategy.
I’ve been tracking the newer apartments along Craigflower for several years now, and even today they’re still offering one “free” month. A typical two‑bedroom around 700 square feet is posted at roughly $2,350 per month. With a 12‑month lease and the 13th month “free,” the economic rent works out closer to $2,170, and that’s before parking.
This particular complex has constant turnover. That alone tells you the posted rent is above what the market will comfortably support. Instead of lowering the headline number—which affects optics for lenders and future buyers—they use concessions to quietly bridge the gap. Over time, the concession stops being a promotion and becomes part of the building’s operating model.
Absolutely the rents are more than they were five years ago.
Rents rose because demand exceeded supply, because students returned, because immigration surged, because new product came in at higher quality tiers, and because landlords could command more. None of that is “inflation” in the CPI sense. It’s market clearing.
Inflation may raise a landlord’s costs, but costs do not set rents.
So one has the scenario where a landlord is telling his tenant that they are raising the rent to $2,700 a month due to inflation. Ant the tenant is saying they can rent another place for $2,500. And in that moment, the entire economic truth is laid bare.
Victoria Real Estate Board
April 13, 2026
Month Apr Apr
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 228 642
New Listings 684 1,629
Active Listings 3,462 3,426
At this pace I am going to predict 620 sales for the month.
When you look at the new rentals coming online in University Heights, you’ll often see a two‑bedroom listed at $3,600 per month. That’s its market rent — the posted number that shows up in ads, rent rolls, and CMHC surveys.
But many of these buildings also offer a concession such as two months free rent. Once you adjust for that concession, the real price of occupancy is lower. That adjusted figure is known as the economic rent.
In this case, the landlord still collects $43,200 over the year (twelve payments of $3,600), but the tenant occupies the unit for 14 months. The posted rent already bakes in the cost of those two additional months. There is no “free rent” — the math has simply been redistributed.
A wrinkle for returning students is that in their second year they may no longer receive the concession. They’ll still be paying $3,600 per month, but now without the two‑month extension that softened the effective rent in year one. That may still be acceptable if the lease converts to month‑to‑month and they plan to vacate at the end of their term, but the underlying point remains: the concession was never “free.” It was prepaid through the inflated sticker rent.
While asking rents are down 8% from 2024 peak, they are still up +20% over last 5 years , ($1,670->$2,008). That’s kept up with inflation (19%).
https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report
What’s falling is market rents, not the average rent paid by tenants. Market rent is the driver, some senior paying 800 bucks a month in a 1 bed apartment in cook st village doesn’t impact the market.
Because the rental market has softened, many landlords are turning to concessions rather than lowering the posted monthly rent. In the older apartment stock especially, the incentives are becoming hard to miss. A few examples now showing up in the market:
• Half‑month free (e.g., $800 credit applied to the 13th month)
• One month free on a one‑year lease
• No rent increases for two years
• No parking charges for the first year
• Flat‑rate laundry (e.g., $40 per tenant per month)
• Heat and hot water included
• WiFi included
• Free parking
• Early move‑in with $500 off the first month
For tenants with a lease coming up for renewal, your odds of negotiating a concession are far better than negotiating a rent reduction. A concession is temporary and doesn’t reset the rent baseline, which makes it far more palatable for landlords in a softening market.
I’m also finding that many first‑time renters don’t realize they can negotiate at all—either on rent or on the structure of the lease. In today’s market, the posted rent may not have moved much compared to 12 months ago, but the effective cost of renting has. The concessions are where the real movement is happening.
Lmao
They all sold so deals were made on all of them
Find a nice house in a nice area that went for a deal.
When the little old lady down the hall who has been living in her apartment for 25 years and only pays $1000 a month goes and dies, they re-rent her suite for $2000.
That’s just another example of rents RISING, not falling. And with average rents up 22% in three years (and +42% in 6 years) , they are rising more than falling. Which is my point.
I’ve already told you that your observation is valid. It’s just the way you framed the data – it’s unfalsifiable.
When people talk about rental prices coming down they aren’t talking about averaging. Average rents can hide what’s actually happening with rental prices. When the little old lady down the hall who has been living in her apartment for 25 years and only pays $1000 a month goes and dies, they re-rent her suite for $2000. Average rents go up. This hides the fact that they may have been able to rent the place for $2200 last year, and prices have actually come down since then. Given how fast rent prices went up when they opened up the immigration flood gates its not a surprise average rents are up – most turnover would see higher prices as most people don’t rent and move the next year to rent another place.
Asking prices seem logical to me though recently recently rented prices would be the most useful IMO.
Fine me one then.
Your observation is valid — but it’s a sample‑bias issue. You’re filtering for the properties you consider ‘nice’ within that price band, the ones that predictably clear at or near ask.
By selecting a narrow subset of sales that already fit your sense of ‘appropriate’ comparable sales, you’re effectively creating a judgment sample. That bakes structural bias into the analysis: the conclusions end up reflecting the curated sample rather than the market.
And this is why providing a comparable sale that shows a discount would be futile — you would dismiss it as not meeting your subjective criteria. If the only sales you’re willing to accept are the ones that already align with your expectations, then no contrary evidence can ever qualify as evidence.
I haven’t seen anything I feel is nice in that range go for a discount so far this year. Please find me one.
VicReAnalyst, SFD sales in Victoria that range between 1.7 million to 2 million since the start of the year total 23 or about 7 per cent of the SF market place with an average DoM of 39. The same period in 2025 there were 27 sales or about 8 per cent of the market with an average DoM of 32
Every place is going to rent for a different amount based on location, condition of the property, etc.. The properties listed for rent with lower asking prices are probably dumps. Patrick is right.
Rents in Canada aren’t “falling”. Average Rents Canadians are paying are up 6% YOY, up 22% over last 3 years, up +42% since 2019 and have RISEN EVERY YEAR WITHOUT EXCEPTION over the last 35+ years.
Rentals.ca is only looking at asking rents. That’s not what renters are paying. CMHC does look at what renters are paying, by doing its annual “Rental Market Survey”. These are phone interviews with existing landlords to find out what rents people are actually paying,
And the results are different from the “rents are falling” in Canada narrative we hear on HHV. Because the HHVers are just looking at asking rents in rentals.ca .
Anyway, rents tenants are actually paying in Canada are rising, unrelenting. For example
– in the last 3 years , average rent is up 22%, from $1,214 to $1,488 /month.
– in the last year they are up 6.1%, from $1402 to $1488
Here is the data, from CMHC, all of it is to October year end.
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en/TableMapChart/TableMatchingCriteria?GeographyType=Country&GeographyId=1&CategoryLevel1=Primary%20Rental%20Market&CategoryLevel2=Average%20Rent%20%28%24%29&ColumnField=2&RowField=TIMESERIES#csv-export
Methodology: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/surveys/methods/methodology-rental-market-survey
My take is that there is now more money than ever chasing a subset of diserable homes in Victoria around the 1.7 to 2 million range that they are still going for close to peak pricing. Look at that 2 bed 2 bath, small lot, no view rancher sale on plumber for 2 million, I don’t think it would have went for much more than that at the peak.
Jumping in to say, I am looking for a house in Victoria and I think almost every one we have liked and went before we could see it have been mentioned by someone here.
Westbury was one of them. 🙂
“There’s nothing out there that’s too scary.”
Have you heard of a little nuisance called Mythos?
Fifty percent of all single‑family detached sales in the Victoria core during 2026 — the interquartile band — transacted between $1,090,000 and $1,658,000. The median price sits at $1,310,000, and the average days‑on‑market (DOM) of 36 days is consistent with a market that is neither overheated nor distressed. It’s the tempo of a functional, moderately paced environment where buyers and sellers are broadly aligned.
The lower band tells a different story.
Homes in the first quartile ($535,000 to $1,089,900) are taking close to 40% longer to sell. That pushes their effective DOM into the ~50‑day range — a meaningful divergence, not statistical noise.
Taken together, the ranges and timing differences describe a bifurcated Victoria SFD market in 2026.
The “core” price band behaves normally, while the lower band is materially more sluggish. As VicReanalyst has pointed out, the lower‑priced SFDs in the core often involve compromised locations, deferred maintenance, or atypical lots — the kinds of attributes that elongate marketing time even when list prices are defensible.
Layer onto that the behavioural component: first‑time SFD buyers are pausing, absorbing uncertainty around rates, inflation, and employment signals. Their hesitation disproportionately affects the lower quartile, where that buyer cohort is most concentrated.
Im real life most of those young people will just stay home at mom and dads for longer if mom and dad doesn’t help them out with a separate place to live.
In addition to the rent report, Rentals.ca did an analysis this month showing economic uncertainty is a driver of falling rents. In particular, where young Canadians (15-24) have higher unemployment a lower wage gains, rents decline, and that this needs to be considered as a factor beyond just the rental supply and declining population. Does anyone know a way to get young worker unemployment or average wages by CMA? It would be interesting to map that against rents in Victoria. https://rentals.ca/blog/economic-uncertainty-as-a-driver-of-falling-rents
Asking rent in Victoria have decreased Year over Year
Lot of shitty homes are in trouble though.
Yep , there are a lot of folks with more than enough money to buy homes . Unemployment rate really not that high and an economy that keeps on bumping along. There’s nothing out there that’s too scary.
Good thing most of the people buying
the nicer expensive homes here already have money and aren’t too dependent on the local economy.
Canada’s job growth rate in March was essentially zero. The drop in unemployment rate over the last year, which was primarily due to the big drop in temporary residents, has stopped. This has normalized, and I expect the unemployment rate to increase from the current 6.7% to 7.5% over the next 12 months.
Interesting, anything that I think is good (nice neighborhood, nice lot and decent house)and less than 2 million are still selling for prices higher than I thought and significantly more than assessment.
They are not selling, so hence the price drops. Just different from the days where realtors would get biddings wars on places that had influshed shits in the toilets and hazmat signs up during showings.
From what I see, anything remotely nice is still sold at a strong price, 764 Westbury is another example.
Yes, but it’s a volume game. Even more today… As well, a lot of price changes on SFD and locations outside the trash categories.
Just go on housesigma and look at the solds from 2018 for $1.2, much better choices than that house.
Nah, they overpaid. There was the house on donwood that paid the same as this house in 2018 but just sold last week for 1.73 with just a paintjob and some new paver stones on the patio.
Or, the market is trending down. I think they will be lucky to get the 2018 price paid.
Asking only 100k more than the 2018 purchase price. Interesting, looks like they severely overpaid in 2018….
Some sellers are desperate to sell their property. Here is another example, 886 Lodi Ave Saanich
SELLER WILL PAY 100% OF THE BUYER’S CLOSING COSTS!(PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX,LEGAL FEES, ADJUSTMENTS ETC)
https://housesigma.com/bc/saanich-real-estate/886-lodi-ave/home/nbq6y100BrjYo9DA?id_listing=bqB176zND0M7ZajD
Almost all are trash.
1568 Arbordale Avenue they receive multiple offer!
Geez, what a number SFD listings the core the last 2 days… Just imagine what 1568 Arbordale Avenue would have listed for just a few short years ago.. Now just 850k…
Downtown Victoria’s largest infusion of rental homes in nearly 60 years coming with Spencer Block project
https://victoria.citified.ca/news/downtown-victorias-largest-infusion-rental-homes-in-nearly-60-years-coming-spencer-block-project/
I’ve found Garth Turner’s pronouncements in the past very useful. As a counter-indicator; just do the opposite
That is not a nice product…. it is an unrenovated beat up tenanted house on a busy street in gordon head right before you get to the nicer parts. Look at the pics of the deck and backyard!
4101 Garden Head Rd went for $1.4 million, 20% below assessment. Good price for a 1995 build,,4,000 sqft house on a 10,000 sqft lot. Lower than expected price seems to be because it is tenanted both up & down.
I went to order the city file for a property I am listing and it is $300 for the file! So not only is government red tape out of control when you try to build something subsequently, they make it difficult to access that red tape paperwork. Can’t even do online payment 🙂
Not really, good product under 2 million is still moving pretty well, going above assessed value on the regular.
We are in the era of Liquidity Trap now.
No it’s not, the residential ones looking for work can’t work on the industrial or healthcare ones if they wanted to.
His niche is probably multiplexes and townhouses.
Construction has also been slowing for a while so no surprise there.
Then there is also the actual reality of trying to build something and if you want competent tradespeople even with things slowing down there hasn’t been much movement on pricing. The article notes 3 to 5% down in private sector for 2026, but 1 t o 3% up in the public sector. Once those two cancel each other that isn’t substantial downward pressure on the whole.
As far as soft costs I don’t see anyone begging for work in terms of consultants. This is the type of reply you get from a consultant a friend recommend as good to work with, two weeks just to provide a quote. It has now been four weeks and I still haven’t heard back 🙂
If you look at the article they admit this has been happening for awhile now.
Even Garther Turner was eventually right.
Victoria Real Estate Board
April 6, 2026
Month Apr Apr
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 82 642
New Listings 232 1,629
Active Listings 3,307 3,427
Too early to tell anything at this point.
Lol been saying this for a long time. Funny they got some commentary from BTY, one of the worst QS firms I’ve come across, half of their staff in Vancouver can’t even speak proper English and the work is sloppy and shitty on top of that.
https://www.biv.com/news/real-estate/construction-trades-competing-for-scarce-projects-easing-costs-for-bc-developers-12078381
This war won’t be over any time soon. Trump underestimated Iran. The man is a moron and his supporters clowns. The economic outlook is pretty gloomy. Development could ground to a halt.
Nice try buddy 🙂
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2026/03/02/february-sluggish-market-continues/#comment-134947
This current Trump / Iran dumpster fire and related inflation and uncertainty will further dampen new starts which are already on life support. Fast forward 5 years, zero to next-to-zero new inventory entering the market. Prices will rebound for sure then. But likely not until then IMO. . .
There will be an uptick in inflation, but in my opinion the BoC will try to hold the overnight as long as reasonably possible. I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended the year without any changes to the lending rate.
The regulators are warning the lenders.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/canadas-banking-regulator-warns-major-lenders-about-appraisal-practices-condo-2026-03-09/
According to Rodger inflation due to gas costs won’t have anything to do with the rates. Lol
First in!
Amazing love the analysis! Very helpful I just bought a home for my family. I feel like your correct the market will take time to pick up. But the way I see it is Victoria is one of the most beautiful and great places to live, so if the market majorly crashes here well, I think we will have bigger problems, My prediction is within 2 to 3 years housing prices will begin to climb again. Thanks again for the all the info and the data this site is really great, cheers