February: Sluggish market continues
This year started with pretty weak prints from the Victoria real estate market, and that didn’t change in February. After holding up a lot better than the condo market in the fall, the single family side especially has extended its slide and now looks little better than the condo market in terms of sales activity. Both have given up the hard-fought gains from the past 3 years and are back to levels we hit in 2022 right after interest rates shocked the market.
New lists have erased their little slide from the fall, and are now at their highest level in some 15 years. Yes a lot of these are relists just like they have been for the past couple years, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s a sign of weakness. There’s a reason all those sellers keep re-listing instead of just selling.
After a flat period that persisted for most of last year, it looks like inventory is turning up again. As a reminder, inventory goes up every spring, but what we are extracting out here is the underlying trend. In other words, is inventory rising faster than we would normally expect this time of year? Currently the answer is yes (by a little bit).
Just like last month, slow sales combined with healthy new listings means deteriorating market conditions. We’ve broken out a little from the ceiling around 6 months of inventory and outside of that COVID spike when sales essentially stopped, we are now at about the same market conditions as late 2014. Difference is back then the market was on a steady trend of improvement, while we’re currently heading the opposite direction.
Sales to new list ratio actually looks a bit weaker than months of inventory, back to levels we briefly saw in the fall of 2023 and the lockdown, but persistently not since ~2013.
Combining the two measures shows another small decline from January’s market conditions when we were still within a balanced range. This is now the first buyer’s market we’ve seen in some 2.5 years.
We hit a similar weak spot in fall of 2023, but as I recall rates were heading up at that point. Right now rates are stable so there’s less of an easy culprit other than, you know waves hands at general chaos.
Prices have not reacted to the weaker conditions, in fact short term trends are all positive, but the sales picture can’t be staved off forever. It’s still barely a buyer’s market, but a buyers market around these levels does support slow price declines if it persists. Benchmark prices are all down year over year, with the biggest declines in the westshore as we discussed a couple years ago.
They will need some pretty damn tall laurels or cedars. This will just further drive up prices for houses that are largely immune from missing middle developments.
An interesting design for the half‑duplex homes on Island Road—positioned at the lower end of the detached price spectrum for the neighborhood. The exterior presents as intentionally austere, while the interiors show a level of customization that exceeds what the mass‑market duplex stock typically offers.
When a markedly different architectural form enters a neighborhood dominated by turn‑of‑the‑century homes, the appraisal question becomes one of market adoption. Early iterations tend to function as visual outliers, and paired‑sales evidence is thin because buyer acceptance is still forming. Exposure times may lengthen, and adjustments for design variance are harder to support.
As additional projects appear, however, the market’s frame of reference expands. The design language becomes more familiar, comparable inventory increases, and the discount—or premium—associated with contrast begins to stabilize. This is known as a neighborhood in transition.
For owners of the smaller turn‑of‑the‑century homes in this neighborhood, most of the property’s value now sits in the land rather than in the house itself. As the area transitions toward higher‑density and more contemporary development, buyers are increasingly evaluating these properties for what can be built, not for the existing improvements.
Because of that shift, a small older home that has had some updates over the years—newer kitchen, refreshed bathrooms—often sells for a similar price to one that hasn’t been upgraded. The market is placing far more weight on lot size, zoning, and redevelopment potential than on the condition or finish level of the dwelling.
Yes, the neighbours directly adjacent are highly impacted. And the new homes are going to need window coverings. Welcome to missing middle. Time to plant some laurels or cedars.
Less visible from the street but likely looking directly into their backyard.
I think the new owners will enjoy the design. Nice to have modern convenience, off street parking, some yard, and 3 beds at that price point in oak bay. Plus being in the back makes it less visible to neighbours who want no change.
It is fascinating how robotics and sophisticated machinery (manufactured in Germany and Japan) can make us look “productive”. Remember how our manufacturing sector was devastated in the early 90’s when free trade was enacted. The government had to create the GST (great screwed twice) tax to replace the manufacturing tax. Furniture, clothing, etc.. factories were shuttered putting thousands out of work. I wonder why Apple does not produce one product in Canada given our lower dollar and health care system, eliminating the need for expensive medical insurance plans for employees.
Canada Unemployment (6.5%) isn’t high. More of the population are working in Canada (58.5%) than USA (57.6%) .
Canada has a high labour participation rate (65%). That’s 3% higher than the USA (62%). That’s one reason to explain why Canada’s unemployment rate (6.5%) is 2.1% higher than the USA (4.4%). Which means that actually a greater percent of the Canada population is working (58.5%) compared to USA (57.6%). Canada’s labour participation rate is high because of our population growth by immigration. Immigrants are average age 29 and most are part of the work force.
In any event Canada’s unemployment rate at 6.5% doesn’t say anything about our manufacturing output. For that, look to manufacturing output data, which I’ve done in the chart posted. And Canada manufacturing is quite high, especially per capita.
A lot of creative missing middle ideas hitting the market every week. This is an interesting one in Oak Bay. Developer bought an old home on a 8,100 sq.ft. home. Kept the old home and added a duplex in the back and now it’s a three lot strata (the third one being the original old home in the front).
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29441599/2-920-island-rd-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29441663/1-920-island-rd-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
One of many issues. Last year I had a tenant give me notice on the 4th of a month that she was breaking a lease (6 months left) and vacating on the 15th as she secured a job in Calgary (so not enough notice even if she was month-to-month). I said I would work with her and sign a mutually end to tenancy for the 15th and give her 1/2 the damage deposit back and she didn’t think that was fair as she had paid for the entire month already. The fact that she wasn’t upholding her end of the lease agreement and I had to scramble to try to find a tenant for the 1st was completely irrelevant.
I don’t understand the point of leases anymore for landlords. Tenant can pretty much leave whenever they want and I mean sure you can go after them but it’s a process; however, on the flipside tenant just continues after the lease ends if they wish. Rents drop, tenant can bail with 30 days’ notice and find a cheaper place (fair enough), rents go up and as a landlord you are are capped. Etc.
I’m back.
If Canada is so industrious, why do we have a 7% unemployment rate?
Sweet deal coming down the pipe for government professionals (PEA). Not much commitment to saving money with this government.
“We produce nothing”
Yah right.
Per capita, Canada manufactures more than China. As can be seen on the attached chart. China manufactures 25X what Canada does, but their population is 35X Canada. So we manufacture 35/25=1.4X what China does per capita. At least that was true in 2019, as recent data isn’t readily available. It’s likely lower now.. Note that Canada is # 15 worldwide out of 185 countries (contradicting your belief that ”we produce nothing”) and EVERY country above Canada has a MUCH higher population. So we actually manufacture a lot for a country our size.
.
Here’s the chart with the numbers…
Top Countries in Manufacturing – World Bank
https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/manufacturing-value-added-world-bank
Most important lesson here is that just like any other investment, no one ever went broke selling for a profit. Should have just took his $200k gain the following year.
He made a rational choice. High vacancy rates making it difficult to find a good tenant is a big thing – biggest issue for a landlord most often.
Great that he has RSP room to set off the gain. And then putting the money into a bigger primary residence makes sense – it is the only thing not under attack – yet. He was fortunate he did not lose any capital. Being a realtor he hopefully saved the seller transaction costs.
However, if you are looking to buy now is much better than it has been for years.
Yup, two ships arrived in Halifax this week and one arriving next week and all being sold without EV rebates!
Also, Tesla has pulled their US built Model 3 inventory off their website this week -> https://electrek.co/2026/03/06/tesla-sends-canadian-model-3-inventory-us-expects-chinese-evs/
Real Estate Agent out of Surrey with a popular YT channel shares why he just sold his rental condo -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUsbHmNTgvA
Worth a watch. Appears everyone is running for the exists right now.
Yep Canadian business got very lazy and we lost our mojo. The U.S was such a easy and convenient market , im happy we are being pushed out of our comfort zone
apparently Canada produces/assembles about 1.4 million vehicles a year, it’s just that our strategy has tied us to the apron strings of the US. Which works until it doesn’t, I guess…
Those Teslas are probably made in Germany. A country that also manufactures Mercedes, BMW, VW, Audi, etc.. Just shows how pathetic Canada’s manufacturing sector is. We produce nothing compared to countries that are much smaller with fewer resource materials.
I thought they would be asking higher….
I think it’s a bit more complicated than this in my opinion. Let’s say you have nurse “A” who graduates and gets a job on the ward working your standard 4 twelve hours shifts, 5 days off and then you have nurse “B” who graduates and starts taking extra courses and moves up to the ICU and is picking up overtime on his or her 5 days off to drive up his or her income to $110-$150k range. In that income tax bracket he or she would be paying more taxes than nurse “A” and providing a tangible benefit to society staffing ICU. All of a sudden he or she has should pay GST on a $619,900 brand new because nurse “A” can only buy a $500k re-sale townhome?
We aren’t talking $3 million dollar purchase here (which already has PTT of 5%, etc.).
EV subsidy are just plain stupidity. I’ve been saying this since I bought my first Tesla in 2015. There is plenty of demand as the product is so good, the online Tesla forums are full of people complaining about the delays on delivery for their 75k+tax (no EV rebates) Model Y performance -> https://www.reddit.com/r/teslacanada/comments/1rlgjyd/myp_edd_change_this_morning/
I think every ship docking in Halifax right now full of Tesla’s is spoken for and we are talking 1,000s on each ship.
Gee I wonder why family size is shrinking in Canada?
In the US you get to deduct your mortgage interest for your income taxes
Most people that drive through Gordon Head will be familiar with this new missing middle project that has hit the market -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29428416/1-1559-ash-rd-saanich-gordon-head
If the wealthy were taxed more, who says it would find its way to the less fortunate. The government would just spend more money on themselves. Best to leave more money in the hands of people who earned it so they can keep it circulating in the economy.
The easiest way to not subsidize the “high income” people is to income test before giving the GST rebate. Similarly, to not subsidize “wealthy” people, cap the principal residence capital gains exemption – in the US, the cap is $250,000 to $500,000 (single/married).
Gifts from parents is a different story. In the US, IRS allows only $19,-000 per year. In Canada, it’s entirely tax free.
In Canada, lottery & casino winnings are entirely tax free but in the US, they are taxed to the full extent.
Canada seems to reward many unproductive activities with tax incentives, which in part, encourages money laundering.
P.s. I didn’t say nurses were not well compensated. I was just pointing out that a newly graduated single nurse at the lowest pay grade who had student loans and other life expenses, without family help, would need quite a few years to save for that downpayment. And, even so, i would still question whether they should be subsidized to buy a new home. O.K. really done now. 🙂
We’ve all got the anecdotal stories. All the noise and debate aside, my main point is that if they are able to save it that easily, why are we subsidizing them? Just like the electric vehicle subsidy, my guess is that those with that amount of income would probably buy the new place with or without GST. But, I feel like we’re beating a deadhorse so on to other musings for me.
“Did 2926 Colquitz actually sell? It was on the market for about 3 months for 1 million. Always shook my head when I walked by. I mean it’s a nice area but that house looked like a tear down.”
Listing expired yesterday.
I’d say it’s definitely not rare for millennial couples in Victoria to achieve 200k HHI. Just like everything else, only the real sob stories are publicized while everyone else is busy working and living life.
Yeah, I’m not too sure what Arbutus is talking about. My wife (a nurse) and I are millennials and we were both fairly easily able to save enough for a downpayment for a place in Victoria. Nurses are very well compensated. I often time hear these stories and I always wonder what sacrifices, if any, are people willing to make to save $.
I’d say that is more than comfortable in a one bed apartment…. likely taking home 8k a month after taxes and pension deductions so with 2k rent and 2k other spend a month (which is living pretty comfortable for a single person) they should be able to save close to 50k a year assuming no other debts or bad habits…
Our income tax system, at least, is highly progressive – apparently the top 20% of earners pay about 2/3 of all personal income taxes, while bottom 20% apparently pay less than 1%. On the whole, if that’s true, I think it pretty much swamps the argument that those who have plenty aren’t doing enough. And I think if we keep focusing on wealth re-distribution more than badly-needed productivity increases, we create a sort of morass that makes it harder for everyone eventually. I also think ‘eventually’ is kind of now. So my bias is that I have an aversion to that kind of thinking.
I also don’t really see much wrong with an incentive for new housing starts.
All that said, there’s at least one area of tax incentivization of those who have plenty where I agree with you. And that is OAS. Old Age Security payments apparently are one of our biggest, and still growing, federal budget line item, swamping a lot of other spending. The crazy thing about it is that the clawback of OAS for high-income earners doesn’t start until about $90k+ and the OAS isn’t fully clawed back until about $150k or so. And that’s per person – think about how much you could earn as a couple and still not have this OAS fully clawed back. And financial blogs are full of nice advice on how to optimize your portfolio to create wealth while skating within these OAS clawback threshholds.
It’s nuts. I think we could reasonably (i) adjust the clawback threshholds to be much lower, (ii) dedicate say half the savings to roll into GIS so that only the actually needy seniors get subsidized, and (iii) use the other half of savings for other social programs like housing or health care or whatever. I say all that even though I’m a senior. And yet the gov’t keeps enhancing the OAS, all this while demographics are only increasing the problem.
Did 2926 Colquitz actually sell? It was on the market for about 3 months for 1 million. Always shook my head when I walked by. I mean it’s a nice area but that house looked like a tear down.
Anyone know?
—- Next tax target in BC will likely be asking the middle class for more money. BC has the lowest tax rate (7.7%) for middle class incomes ($50-$100k) in Canada . All other provinces are higher, ranging from Ontario (9.15%) to Quebec (19%).
—- In contrast, the BC fed+prov marginal tax rate for the “rich” ( highest income earners) is 53.5%, close to the highest of any province (Newfoundland is highest at 54.8%).
I am afraid this is just a cop out for those unwilling to put in the work to achieve some level of financial success.
Well, you need the out of box thinking when common sense like reducing spending simply doesn’t work.
Those who can’t buy a $619,900 brand new townhome without GST probably can’t buy the $550,000 older townhome with higher strata fees and risk of special assessments.
Also, what are we equalizing? They removed GST from new builds for first time buyers and there is no GST on re-sale units and it’s not like sales taxes don’t automatically apply on used product. Just look at used cars in BC, you have the same sales tax as new cars. If anything, brand new product has now been equalized with re-sale product. In this new home GST scenario there was no tax on used and now there is no tax on new (for first time buyers).
I really don’t see how hard this is to figure out. When I worked in ICU at the Jubilee I defintively met mature nurses in their 20s that took extra courses and responsibility and end up in ICU or CVU in their 20s. ICU nurse is well into the $60 per hr range these days. So let’s say $110k salary (realistically with overtime you can get to $150k) + $80,000 downpayment and you qualify for $620k. As the nurse in the reddit thread noted on his or her salary of $141k one can be comfortable in a one bedroom apartment and you can probably save a decent amount.
Don’t forget about the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) a nurse or other young professional could take great advantage of. It’s one of the best things the government provides.
Is the above easy? No, I didn’t think it was easy working 12-hr nightshifts at the hospital in ICU with people around you constantly dying. Is it possible, it is, in my opinion.
I would be 100% in support of setting the principal residence max exemption to $1 million. Anything over $1 million in appreciation you pay capital gains on.
Yes, “For purchases on or after May 27, 2025, and before 2031, eligible first-time buyers in Canada can receive a 100% GST/HST rebate on new homes priced up to $1 million (up to a $50,000 max). The rebate is gradually phased out for homes between $1 million and $1.5 million, with no rebate available above $1.5 million.”
Who knows if the place is worth 3.2M but if it is, that owner has saved themselves a lot of taxes.
Good point. Has anyone thought of asking the people without money for money? This is the kind of out of the box thinking we need if we want to get our deficit down
What do you think needs changing? The part where rich people pay most of the taxes?
Marko, I still think you are missing my point. I don’t disagree that we need and want to increase housing starts and I don’t disagree with your points about affordability issues with older homes. And, especially, I don’t disagree with the unfairness of subsidies that are so much worse. In fact, that is my point. We don’t need to add to what makes the rich richer. I think the whole tax system is antiquated and needs a shake up or at least a move towards helping those who are getting more and more left behind and taking away some of the subsidies that keep giving more to those who have built plenty of wealth. Housing is just one area – another is providing subsidies based on income rather than wealth. Some of the richest people I know have a low annual income and receive some nice subsidies as a result.
I can’t provide you with a real life townhome on the Westshore per your example. But I can provide a real life example of the nurse I know who works hard, is saving to buy someday, has no financial help from family, does not want to have a scary crazy monthly mortgage cost. This will mean not buying new, as far as they can tell right now. I still have a hard time figuring out how the nurse in your example could come up with an affordable down payment on their own, single, in their 20’s, without some help, whether that was with education, no student debt, or whatever. The wage in the first few years is not great. But, who am I. Maybe she did nothing outside of work for 4 years but sit and watch TV. Good for her.
So, o.k., if you want to subsidize the first time home buyer who can afford to buy a brand new home, how about equalizing that subsidy somehow to those who can’t buy new…start taxing those older people with equity who have made 2 million tax free on their homes, take that money and provide a grant to the first time buyer who is buying resale. Does the new GST rebate have a maximum home price? It should, as should the cost of the home to qualify for a resale grant under my proposal. I am so tired of incentives that help those who have plenty.
Could BC Assessment be off by a million dollars? Prices haven’t risen since last July. https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29430978/430-luxton-ave-victoria-james-bay
In my opinion I disagree with you. I think this is a half decent tax relief policy to help prop out housing starts across the country as we need housing supply. Take a look at housing starts in BC data. SFHs starts in complete collapse and strata about to collapse. If we don’t prop up strata housing supply in the long run it will result in more expensive real estate for everyone, poor and rich.
A 30 year old townhome that’s more “affordable” than brand new was a brand new townhome 30 years ago. The new townhomes being built today will become used product in 10, 20 and 30 years.
There are literally hundreds of subsidies that are so much worse. For example, buyer buys $2 million dollar home in the Uplands in 2014. They sell it 12 years later in 2026 for $4 million. They pocket $2 million tax free based on the principal residence tax exemption. Is that more fair or more right than waiving GST for first time buyers on new builds (which create economic activity?).
As far as my straw man arguments…sure. How about providing a real life example of an older townhome on the Westshore that is substantially cheaper than $619,900 and an example of how you would prop up housing starts. I understand your theory, but there is real life as well. In real life a 10 year old car is 25% of what it was new and a 10 year old townhome is >90% of what it was new and if you go with something substantially older (30+ years) which is still going to be >70% of the cost of new it comes with other affordability issues in terms of strata fees and special assessments. What I am getting at buying a new townhome is not a massive luxury purchase, imo.
Also, the nurse I helped buy the townhome moved out of a rental she was renting; therefore, increasing supply of rentals. If she had bought a re-sale she would either be displacing tenants or those owners would need to buy something else.
I think there is good reason to stimulate new construction and probably better to give the break to first time buyers versus older people with equity.
Most of what you say, Marko, is a straw man argument. Sure, this is better than a lot of things, but that doesn’t make it right. And we all know you did everything right. Good for you. I don’t have the answer to provide stimulus at the top of my head, but I just think the focus on first time buyers is bonkers. People on this site have commented on how tax policy unfairly provides a subsidy to home owners, through homeowner grants, etc. This is one more example of a subsidy, in my opinion. and one that targets people who don’t need it. And what is the option to buy if they don’t get the subsidy? Same as everybody else, poor things.
Governments want affordability, but they also want the economic stimulus of construction. These goals are not always aligned.
Tthe units that are most affordable for buyers are overwhelmingly in the existing‑home stock, but the units that governments most like to subsidize are the ones that generate GDP, jobs, and tax revenue. That tension shapes almost every modern housing policy failure.
Nope, school training was in Kamloops. I rented the cheapest possible dorm room. Literally the walls had no drywall. Had to do my practicum at BC Childrens/Royal Columbian and rented a place with roommates in north Burnaby on a Skytrain line which conveniently dropped me off right in front of Royal Columbian Hospital. I worked in construction during the summers before my first practicum. I still had student loans at the end, but twice the government stepped in with various programs where they paid them down a bit and also I believe the interest was tax deductible when I had them. Instead of paying them off I invested money I was saving once I started working.
30%+ of new home construction is taxes/government fees. I don’t think removing 5% for first time buyers is some massive subsidy? The developer is paying plenty of other taxes/fees to build these units (and creating jobs in the economy).
You are making new homes to be out like some massive luxury. If we go back to the GableCraft example of $619,900 for a new townhome, what are you able to buy in terms of an old townhome on the Westshore that is substantially cheaper? That doesn’t have huge strata fees and a bunch of special assessments coming up in the next 10 years?
What are your idea for encouraging housing starts? Do we allow foreign buyers back in?
Finally, on a fairness level this is better than many other things, imo. There is no PTT on brand new builds in BC up to $1,100,000. Retired couple sells a house in Oak Bay for $2 million then buys a brand new townhome for $1,100,000 and they pay no PTT – is that somehow a more fair program? First time buyers buying a $1.1 million dollar used SFH with a suite to rent out would be paying $20,000 in PTT.
No interest on student loan, but it’s still a debt to be paid. Not sure if you lived with parents during your training, but for the student who comes from out of town (rural BC) cost of education over 4 years to become a nurse is huge, especially when your unpaid practicums cut into your summer work opportunities and limit selection of jobs when you are available.
The nursing job my family member has requires a car, it’s 17 years old. The point here is not that it’s not possible to get there with hard work and hustle, but that we should not be subsidizing people who already have an advantage and/or don’t need it to enter the housing market. If someone can afford a new home as a first time buyer, they don’t need a subsidy. Find another way to encourage the housing starts.
I started my Respiratory Therapy training at 18 years old and was working in ICU at the Jubilee by 21 years old with unlimited overtime opportunities as a casual. 18+4 = 22 years old? You have more than a couple of years to save up for a down payment. Do you really need a car if you rent close to work as a nurse? I am sure you want one, but do you actually need one.
As far as student loans I took something crazy like 10 years to pay them off for various reasons. Aren’t student loans interest free these days?
In my opinion, it is defintively doable but I agree, not very common as a % of the population.
From this Reddit Thread -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1qfmjhm/us_rn_14_yrs_experience_considering_a_move_to/
Good to c a good to c some help for young buyers . Let’s keep rolling and bring in some more positive changes. For folks who can’t pony up there are a lot of new build rentals just for them
Ya, I get that the point is to encourage starts, but a targeted rebate for first time buyers is still a subsidy to those who don’t need it. Why not broaden the subsidy to others, for example, if you want to encourage starts. And I would be surprised if that single nurse in her 20s didn’t come from priviledge/get help. After 4 years of training, how does one save for a down payment on a $619,000 new place in a couple of years? Likely no student loan and probably parental help. I have a family member who is a single nurse. After 6 years, yes, makes more than $100,000 with overtime, but after paying rent, student loan, beater 2nd hand car, will take a few more years at least before entering the housing market, even then not likely a new place.
I think the real reason for the GST rebate is to prop up housing starts (so projects have a better chance of penciling for developers); however, it is spun politically as doing something for first time buyers.
In all fairness the feds removed the GST from purpose-built rentals (back in 2023) before they did on new for sale product. Also, throw in CMHC backed financing for purpose-built rentals, etc. There is an obvious reason why the majority of housing starts switched to building purpose-built rentals and not for sale.
Result is vacancy in Victoria is at a 25 year high and rents are dropping.
I had a single nurse in her 20s buy a new townhome in Royal Bay. They had them at $619,900 and throw in no GST, no PTT, and if you rent one of the bedrooms to a roommate it is somewhat doable.
Lots of nurses making over 100k these days. Right now I have a couple that are both yr born starting with a 2 looking at entry level SFHs (they could afford a new townhome if they wanted to). Of course the % of young buyers that can afford real estate is low, but in terms of absolute numbers they are out there and only grow as the population grows.
That is why, in my opinion, we need to keep increase housing starts now that the market is slow to keep the downward pressure on rents and re-sale prices. If housing starts slow you will have a large number of higher earners in absolute terms as the population grows competing for limited supply.
Still baffles me. Housing policies continue to subsidize the rich. What FIRST time home buyer can afford to buy a NEW home? The same one who can more than afford to buy something that isn’t new, the same one who has plenty of income and/or savings and/or family/generational help and wealth. How about some incentives that make the housing market affordable to the not-so-rich buyers, like, I don’t know, a break to income tax for a few years that would be equivalent to the GST rebate? I don’t see how a GST rebate improves the affordability crisis. Younger people I know who would like to enter the housing market don’t consider new builds.
GST rebate for frirst time buyers passess sentate finally – https://immigrationnewscanada.ca/canada-50000-gst-rebate-on-new-homes-2026/
This means first time buyers can now buy something like this and they would pay no PTT and would receive a $40k cheque back from the feds -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29097165/3-2538-shelbourne-st-victoria-oaklands
If you were to buy a used townhome at $775,000 as a first time buyer while there is no GSTl; however, there is still PTT of $5,500 even if you qualify for the first time buyer exemption up to $500,000.
and beat down too. I had a client recently purchase a 2-bed in a concrete grandfather srt building for 530ish (same floorplan directly one floor lower sold a couple of years ago for $677,000). Not sure which way Kelowna leans politically but I could see a lot of push back if the COV went to opt out. Will be interesting to see how it plays out because I think vacancy will only continue to rise.
The demand is still there, I am now getting requests for my place a year in advance in the offseason…just received this one last night.
South-West Two Bed Two Bath Condo!
Jan 16–Mar 27, 2027 (70 nights)
2 guests · $17,422.20
Yes, we had more showings than what I anticipated.
So far this year quite a number of properties I’ve had listed have sold to out of towners (two sets of parents bought my condo listings for Uvic kids). Jason Binab commented on his IG yesterday that 11 out of his 44 sales last year were CNDs living in the US moving back to CND/Victoria. I only was involved in two such deals last year with my buyers. I also sold a couple of places for people moving back to the US so I was net zero on the CND-US moves 🙂
I’ve been shocked at the uptake in my friend’s rental project. Much more demand than I thought and so far all his townhome inventory has gone to out of town folks relocating to Victoria (policing, nursing, etc., professionals mostly from Vancouver). I think he mentioned one couple he talked to was renting a place in Yaletown. That being said I think his prices are reasonable, $3,500 to $4,000/month depending on unit for brand new townhomes in Vic West.
Anecdotally speaking the attractiveness of Victoria seems to be hold up the market somewhat (certainly better than Toronto/Vancouver).
Did you get lot of interest on that one? It sold pretty quick for a fair price.
Yes I’ve commented on this multiple times, some of those grandfathered str buildings downtown are looking attractive
Speaking of Kelowna -> https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/601586/More-than-2-100-more-units-could-be-eligible-for-short-term-rentals-in-Kelowna-later-this-year
Could we see Airbnb eventually come back to Victoria?
It’s been fairly busy on my listings lately with a couple of accepted offers yesterday and a subject removal on a SFH in Broadmead Monday and one yesterday on a condo downtown.
Also, 64 pendings so far since Monday is decent. Will see what the numbers say this upcoming Monday but I think it’s going to be more of the same…in-line +/- with the last four years.
What type of listings!
We are hitting the heart of the ultra-low mortgage rate renewals, and I would have to think that has an effect on sales. I just spoke with our realtor, and they have over 20 listings for sale and said that activity has dried up the last couple of weeks with hardly any showings happening.
As far as I know using a provincial design doesn’t help you get a BP/DP faster so what is the point? If you have to go through the same painful process might as well design something else that is slightly more efficient.
A lot of these projects on the Westshore don’t pencil, and if you can’t get financing then you can’t start whether you want or not. The few smaller builders/developers I know personally are simply going through their inventory of properties and not aquiring further. The 20 unit first missing middle project in the COV the developer I know is finishing is now moving onto developing a piece of property he bought five years ago (he was renting the teardown for $3,500/month so not losing a ton of money per month during those 5 years).
As far as missing middle projects the great thing about the blanket re-zoning is you don’t have to buy land inventory and spend years re-zoning. I know one smaller developer that had good success with his first missing middle project and just went out and bought three more teardowns for three more missing middle projects. You also have muncipalities like Saanich that only require a BP, no DP so that also speeds things up.
Kelowna benefitted from zoning changes which made infill feasible. They were ahead of the SSMUH curve. I’m saying that design catalogues have had limited uptake. How many SSMUH builds have actually utilized Municipal or Provincial designs since bill 44?
I am very critical of anything government as you can see by my earlier post in this thread. However, as someone who is in the process of designing a missing middle project in the COV I would 110% utilize one of these in return for a 10-day city approval. Multiple architects/designers are telling me except 10 to 12 months for approval with no variances requested. You also need a bunch of consultants (civil, arborist, etc.) and this is the type of email reply you get when you email a competent consultant.
In a broad sense, yes—but not because humans worship wealth.
Wealthy circles are simply one version of this. The same dynamic happens in academic circles, artistic circles, military circles, religious circles—anywhere identity and incentives align.
Just because you have wealth isn’t a guarantee of acceptance.
Dead wrong. Kelowna already did this in 2017 when they legalized quadplexes on 800 lots as a pilot and pre-approved 4 different quadplex designs with a similar model (fast approvals). They got something like 300 new units in just a few years. They know what they’re doing. This is just phase 2 of the same plan that they already proved works.
Back then it was a revolution for small builders that previously were completely locked out of building multifamily homes because they had neither the capital nor the expertise to do a rezoning so all they were building was single family. With pre-approved designs and rapid by-right approvals they can build multiplexes.
Also exactly the kind of policy that cities can deploy in uncertain economic times when the big developers put the big projects on hold. How do you keep builds going? Make small low-risk projects easy to build.
Market adoption is slow for missing‑middle homes because most buyers can’t visualize them. If you’re not fluent in reading plans, the finished home is hard to imagine and the scale of the rooms is even harder to grasp. That gap between drawing and lived experience makes the entire product feel abstract and uncertain.
Once a few are built, the dynamic shifts. Buyers can walk through real spaces, calibrate their expectations, and build confidence in the typology.
This perceptual challenge is most acute in condominium living, where square footage behaves differently than it does in larger homes. In a 475‑square‑foot suite, a 75‑square‑foot difference is transformative: it can create a proper den, expand a bedroom into something genuinely functional, or turn a marginal kitchen into one that finally works. The same 75‑square‑foot swing inside a 2,500‑square‑foot house barely registers; it dissolves into the overall volume.
This is why buyers often feel misled or confused when relying solely on plan renderings. On paper, two compact layouts can appear nearly identical. But once you’re physically in the suite, the difference is immediate and visceral. Proportions shift, circulation opens up, and the home crosses a threshold from “tight but workable” to “genuinely livable.”
Plans flatten those distinctions. The human eye simply isn’t built to intuit how small numerical changes in compact spaces translate into large experiential ones. Until people can walk through finished examples, that disconnect will continue to shape how missing‑middle homes are perceived—and how slowly they’re adopted.
People with money don’t want to live next to people without money…. That’s human nature.
Awesome, another pre-approved design catalogue of slop made by x government that nobody will utilize. The feds made one, the province made one, and various munis have made them. Next stop, neighbourhood level design catalogues that I’m sure will have the same great uptake as the others.
Yes, but it works both ways. Applicants can’t exceed the size limits asking for variances and special treatment. That’s a big cause for delays too, solved by these pre-approved designs. Munis have commented that 90%+ of applications have problems, and presumably this “problems” number is lowered with the pre-approved designs.
A small but important detail about CMHC’s methodology came into focus this morning. For multi‑family projects, CMHC doesn’t record a start until the concrete foundation is actually poured. Excavation, shoring, and all the early ground work don’t count toward new construction in their reporting.
Excavation is not a reliable indicator of commitment. Developers can dig, pause, redesign, re‑permit, or even abandon a site without ever building. Once the foundation is poured, the project is effectively locked in. It signals that financing, trades, engineering, and sequencing are all aligned.
That’s why multi‑family starts often appear to jump in sudden monthly bursts: a single foundation pour can add hundreds of units at once.
Stock plans will strike some people as plain or even unattractive, but taste is subjective. What looks austere to one generation can feel refreshingly functional to the next. Styles evolve, and designs that emphasize efficiency over ornament often gain acceptance once people see how well they work in practice. For many younger buyers, the appeal lies precisely in that simplicity: a home that is affordable, rationally designed, and buildable without drama.
The Vancouver Special shows how quickly public taste can shift with changing economic conditions. When it first appeared—much like the post‑1945 housing boom—it was criticized as plain, repetitive, and overly utilitarian. But it delivered what people needed at the time: a practical, affordable home that could be built quickly and lived in comfortably.
As households accumulated more disposable income, expectations changed. Designs grew larger, more elaborate, and more ornamental. Rooflines multiplied, facades became busier, and square footage ballooned. That appetite for visible prosperity eventually produced the McMansion era, where size and embellishment mattered more than efficiency or restraint.
In my opinion, a mixed‑income neighbourhood is far healthier than a subdivision carved up by income brackets. When every home in a development targets the same price point, the result is a place where people must leave as their circumstances change. A community built with a range of housing types—smaller units, mid‑range homes, and larger options—lets people remain rooted as they age, raise families, downsize, or experience shifts in income.
These stock home plans provide that flexibility.
Stock home plans have always been a strong idea. They’ve succeeded in the past for a simple reason: they reduce uncertainty. Builders gain high confidence in what the home will actually cost to construct, and homeowners get a clear, realistic picture of the expenses they can expect. When a plan has been built repeatedly, both sides benefit from predictable pricing, fewer surprises, and a smoother overall process.
Stock plans would narrow the range of design variation and, in doing so, narrow the range of construction estimates. When every project is a one‑off, builders have wide latitude to frame the job however they like—often by emphasizing complexity, uncertainty, or “custom” elements that justify higher pricing. A standardized plan removes much of that narrative space and forces competition on the one dimension that becomes comparable: price
What an ugly piece of crap. Looks like a barn.
Vicre, better to leave the lot empty and leave the money in the jeans . There’s a good chance they can’t get the project financed right now . If someone wants to go out on a limb right now there’s a ton of projects with zoning in place ready to go.
Kelowna released their new missing middle catalog.
If developers choose one of those 12 designs, they get approval in 10 business days.
Now that’s how you do missing middle. Munis around here wouldn’t even acknowledge they got your submission in 10 days.
https://bsky.app/profile/leospalteholz.bsky.social/post/3mfxcgy7qs22i
For small developers, no development = 100% chance of zero money coming in plus carrying costs for the land. Doing a development they at least have a chance to make some money. For many of them it’s no more lucrative than working a normal job at a larger developer, after all costs and accounting for risk, it is likely similar to a 150k a year job with bonus, benefits and RRSP matching..
Oh good I thought the market was slow but luckily local media is here to set me straight
Question: what effect will the sluggish market have on developments not yet built? I’ve noticed on the Westshore there are many lots still sitting bare that are slated for townhome development. It seems townhome supply exceeds demand, will this cause developers to pause or do they keep going in hopes to sell? Is it better to build a 20 townhomes just to get a project done and recoup expenses, or better to develop nothing now with the risk that what you’ll build might not sell?
Sold a rental property today and struggled through the BC Tenancy Branch Online Notice Generator with my client and at the end it spits this out “The Tenant(s) must move out of the rental unit by June 29, 2026”
like what the, doesn’t June have 30 days? Now the client/landlord has to print off the government generated form, which has an incorrect date due to the fact the government can’t figure out simple programming, and drop it off to the tenant with the incorrect date?
They also keep changing the information that is required for the buyer which is frustrating as when conditions are removed I send the buyer’s agent what we need in terms of personal information from the buyer and then it changes two months later.
Exactly! Usually the nonsense is up voted.
Huh? That seems like a simple truth. Clearly if they delisted they in fact did not need to sell.
Or are you saying that you’re shocked a simple truth got upvoted.
Speaking of Reddit so many out of touch buyers/sellers on there, I came across this a few months -> https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1ow78rv/every_offer_weve_put_in_gets_rejected_and_the/
Love the first comment “Just like you don’t need to buy, these sellers who delist don’t need to sell. It’s that simple.”
I was shocked to see it was upvoted so high 🙂
You also have agents “buying” (or simply don’t know how to price) listings by suggesting a high price and it’s often works for them in the end. A couple of years ago I told sellers $1.2 million +/- $50,000 in terms of market value. They listed with a different agent for close to $1.5 million and a year later (vacant house too) after many price drops sold for $1,150,000ish but they sold with him, not me.
First of all, in my opinion, re-listing should be banned by the real estate board unless you are switching real estate agents. Lowering the price is just as effective is my opinion, but my clients see other places being re-listed, so I am constantly caught up in the practice myself.
Second of all, this is how real life works, recent example. I was called out to evaluate a property and as part of my listing presentation of the front of my presentation binder I wrote in my suggested listing price, X (below $1.5 million). The sellers call me a month later to come list the property and when I show up and we start doing the listing paperwork they hit me with “we would like to try X + $200,000.” As I was already there with the paperwork I just rolled with it. No interest. We reduce the price $100,000 so we are now at X + $100,000 and the sellers are shocked there is no interest. They eventually take the listing off the market while all this time when I was at the property I can see my binder sitting in the kitchen with my suggested list price clearly written 🙂 Then some Redditor probably assumes I, as the real estate agent, priced the property too high.
Another example, if a seller is asking $999,900 and calls up the listing agent and notes he or she wants to reduce to 899,900 to help faciliate the sale what agent on earth is not going to roll with that? Real estate agents setting prices high is one the stupider theories I come across on Reddit every day amongsts many other ones. It’s like 99% of Reddit doesn’t live in the real world.
Given the instant access to sold data thanks to platforms like housesigma, more sellers are informed of current market dynamics. There will always be unrealistic expectations from some sellers but I suspect the majority would act in a rational manner.
Well to chase a market down would imply that prices are imploding . That’s not happening , things have been pretty much flat .
I don’t think it’s poor behaviour per se, it’s just unproductive. Even though there is no financial cost in having your place listed there’s a huge cost in terms of hassle and mental energy.
Sellers in most cases would be far better off just pricing to market, making the sale, and moving on rather than an endless dance.
Problem is, it is difficult for sellers to understand this for a few reasons.
For those reasons, I don’t think there’s any way to change the behaviour of most sellers. Smart sellers will know to make transactions rarely (transaction costs), but when they do make them, make them decisively and efficiently.
I’ve heard realtors call the behaviour of relisting for a lower price to be “chasing the market down”. I get the impression that they think it’s poor behaviour. What else is a seller who actually want to sell supposed to do? Do realtors think that sentiment can be turned around by stubbornness alone? It seems odd to me that realtors seem to favour not getting paid over getting paid slightly less.
A few properties have caught my eye recently. It feels bad seeing a normal home for over a million and thinking “oh I thought it would be more” or “I wonder why it’s not selling at that price”. I’m curious to see what the higher inventory will make available.
Damn I am good, should be a realtor.