2025 Predictions Roundup
Well I did promise to write an article about predictions I better get to it before we get too far into 2026.
It’s been just over a year since we made our predictions for 2025, and it’s time to hand out bragging rights to the winners. This is a long standing tradition on HHV, and unlike other places that make predictions for clicks and never mention them again, we face up to the cringe of seeing how far reality diverged from what we thought last year. It’s always a good reminder that though there are metrics that correlate with future prices, in most cases the unknown unknowns or inherent randomness of the market will dominate short term performance.
Here’s all the predictions that we made last year along with the average absolute error in the forecasts (note % error for the first 4 plus the absolute difference between the forecasted and actual BoC rate).
The median prediction in each category was:
Sales: 7150
Single Family Median (Q4): $1,150,000
Condo Median (Q4): $540,000
December Inventory: 2356
Bank of Canada Rate: 2.625
And the actual values for this year as well as the difference from the median guess:
Sales: 6918 (-3.2%)
Single Family Median (Q4): $1,141,750 (-0.1%)
Condo Median (Q4): $543,967 (+0.01%)
December Inventory: 2544 (+8%)
Bank of Canada Rate: 2.25% (-0.375 percentage points)
The crowd got it pretty damn close this year, with only the inventory prediction coming in substantially lower than it actually did. That said, predictions are much easier when the market continues to go essentially in the same direction that it has been. I’ve noticed over the years that most people essentially start their prediction by drawing a straight line from last year into the future and then modifying it slightly up or down based on how they are feeling. Very few predictions assume a radical shift in the market, so when that does happen it takes almost everyone by surprise.
Winners
In the category of sales, Brandon N was the winner, guessing 7000 sales, 82 over the actual value.
In house prices, a tie with both daisydad and SuccessfulCondoHunter guessing $1,140,000, less than $2000 below the actual.
In condo prices, it was a three way tie with Ira Willey, SaanichAdam, and daisydad all predicting $545,000 which was less than $2000 over (Chris L wins if we’re doing price is right rules)
For inventory, Dinesh was one of the few guessing high, and hits the win with a prediction of 2550 properties.
Rates should be easier because there’s fewer realistic options, but most years it’s one of our worse guesses for some reason. Out of 45 predictions, Vanessa Roman, Krizzle, EdgarAllanBro, NE14T, and Frank predicted the 2.25% correctly. That’s better than last year when no one got it.
Overall winner: To calculate the overall winner, I averaged the percentage errors on each of the estimates to determine the forecaster with the minimum error across the categories.
The winner, with an average absolute error of only 1.98%, was my lovely wife Mrs Leo S. Congratulations! In fact this is the third year in a row she’s beaten me on prediction accuracy (oof).
Runner up is Brandon N with an average error of 2.41%.
Thanks everyone for putting in your predictions!
2026 Predictions
Quite honestly I haven’t been paying close enough attention to have a particularly informed forecast of what might happen this year. Fundamentally though I believe we are in the later stage of the correction / plateau, and I wouldn’t count on more than another year or two of flatness before the market picks up again. Short term there is more employment uncertainty coming, with the provincial hiring freeze threatening to tip more and more into significant layoffs. That puts a pretty big damper on local demand which – though not the only factor – is still the major driver of the market especially in multifamily and commuting areas. All the long run factors I’ve discussed on this site still apply though, and it doesn’t take a lot of additional demand for single family in the core to be sustainably tilted towards sellers again. There’s been a few temporary surges in that sub-market in the last couple years, and one of these days it’s going to hold. The condo market usually lags the single family side with less sparks of recovery, and that looks to continue.
I don’t think I’ll make specific predictions for this year, but if you want the long run context, here it is for our usual categories.
- Sales:
- Median prices (3 month average of medians)
- December Inventory:
- December Bank of Canada rate:
Feel free to leave your 2026 predictions below if you didn’t already on the last post. January numbers post coming soon (for reals this time).
January numbers https://househuntvictoria.ca/2026/02/07/january-a-weak-start-to-2026
Yup, inflation adjusted it’s very consistent 3.8% annually
since the chart is in nominal and inflation dropped, that makes some kind of sense.
If the overall trend were to hold we’d be looking at an $8,000,000 SFH late in the 2040s!
Updated long run chart for single family. Hard to say but appreciation rate may be structurally less since the 80s. Still, hell of a run.
Sidney has something that’s increasingly rare on the South Island: manufactured homes on privately owned lots. These properties sit on bare‑land strata—you own the land outright, while the strata corporation maintains the shared infrastructure and common areas. The lots are typically about half the size of a standard residential parcel, which keeps the overall price point significantly lower than a conventional detached home.
One of the best‑known examples is Summergate Village, a 55‑plus community developed in the late 1970s and early 1980s along Summergate Boulevard. It remains popular with downsizers and retirees who want the independence of land ownership without the cost or upkeep of a full‑sized property.
Homes in these communities generally trade at roughly 40% below the price of a traditional single‑family home in Sidney, making them one of the few remaining entry points into the local market.
>> Mooselessness, downsizing into a townhouse or condo or just to a smaller SFH?
Smaller SFH would be the most appealing of those to me. Especially in Victoria where there’s no snow to shovel and the yard/garden can be enjoyed year-round.
I think it is often better to downsize earlier while you are healthier. Its a big transition and takes time to adjust.
Anecdotal, but we have spent some time in a condo recently and it is really appealing. No yard work, no exterior maintenance, underground parking, no uninvited visitors/salespeople, and single level living. We still have a house, but I’m certain I’d be just as happy living in a well-built, well-run, and well-located 55 plus condo full-time.
When I had less equity the leverage and appreciation in RE made this a logical primary way to get ahead given our skill sets – a SFH with suite was really good when raising a family for comfort and to get ahead. Now the stock market has become a much more appealing way to invest. A big correction is possible, maybe probable, but it is so low effort and if you can wait it out things have always recovered over time. I think selling a SFH, buying a condo, and investing the extra money in the market can be a very good way to reduce stress and take care of your future self.
So, if you are at the age/stage where you are considering downsizing I’d start looking closely at all the options in Sidney and Comox now. I’ve noticed that 55 plus condos are generally much larger, quieter and often have better views than non-age restricted condos so they seem a relative bargain to me. And it seems like a buyers market in many areas for condos.
The new(er) Purpose Built Rentals are likely starting to influence buyer behaviour, and they may be contributing to the slowdown in condominium sales. Prospective purchasers now have an option they rarely had in earlier cycles: they can sell, rent, and simply wait for the right property to appear. That added flexibility reduces urgency, and when buyers feel they can take their time, the pace of condo absorption slows.
They can also afford to be far more selective about what they buy. As noted in earlier posts, we’re seeing a clear split in the condo market: some units move quickly at strong prices, while others sit with little interest. Optionality has made buyers choosier, and that pickiness is amplifying the divergence between well‑positioned properties and those that miss the mark.
For example, you mentioned that you’re not entirely sure about living in a condominium. I’ve known people in the same position who didn’t want to commit to something they might regret. They chose to rent a condo in the community first, which gave them time to get a feel for the lifestyle while continuing to shop for the right home. When they eventually found the place they wanted, they were able to give notice on the rental, have everything packed and ready, and make the move on their own timeline rather than being forced into a rushed buy‑and‑sell cycle.
Mooslessness, have you thought about how you want to structure the move? If your timeline is 2027, you actually have room to plan this in a way that avoids the pressure of buying and selling within the same narrow window. In a small market like Sidney, that breathing room matters. With the right sequencing, you can give yourself options instead of being forced into a rushed, two‑week scramble.
I don’t think any of your wishes are unreasonable, Mooslessness. I hear the same list from a lot of people approaching retirement. There are a few strata complexes in Sidney that come close to meeting all of those criteria, but they rarely come on the market. That’s the challenge in a small community: when you’re finally ready to make the move, the odds are good that nothing suitable will be listed at that moment.
The operating costs for condominiums in BC are consistently higher than for equivalent units in purpose‑built rental buildings. The categories of expense are the same — insurance, maintenance, governance, capital planning, tax treatment, and cost control — but the underlying incentives and legal obligations are not.
Those structural differences drive materially higher strata fees for what is, on paper, the same type of building. Not much can be done about this as the strata corporation is legally locked into long-term stewardship while the PBR operator is not.
It wasn’t always this way, most of these differences trace back to the Barrett Commission reforms in British Columbia, which reshaped how multi‑unit housing is governed and financed.
Can’t you just outsource that?
This is the question we’re wrestling with. We’re tired of yardwork, but we’ve also never lived in a condo or dealt with a strata, and it’s hard to imagine having to take an elevator every time we want to step outside. Also, some of the strata fees are astonishing.
Townhomes are tempting–there are some nice ones in Sidney–although as we age, we fret about a layout that has you climbing stairs all the time.
So far, we have a good list of contradictory wishes (no stairs but also a view! no renos but also affordable! small but also good storage!). We have no plans to move until at least 2027 so we have time to mull it over and get real.
Interesting I have one of those too lmao. And you absolutely don’t have to have it to run a fund. Also lot of the advisors with the biggest books aren’t CFAs here. It’s a sales/customer service job on the retail side.
“ Please enlighten me on what this actually is?”
CFA – you need it to run a mutual fund or ETF. Some of the top advisors in Victoria have it
Mooselessness, downsizing into a townhouse or condo or just to a smaller SFH? I like Sidney. I like the flatness and walkability and ocean proximity. The highway is a factor in a lot of it and airport noise, but I have looked at a lot of townhouses there. It is colder than you might expect if you’re not currently living near the ocean. I lived on Lochside for a year across from the water a long time ago and the wind really was something. For me the new townhome plans are just always too squished with living, dining and kitchen all together in what I never find is enough space. I like to be able to seat 12 at my dining table. There are a lot of townhouses though. I really liked a house there on first viewing and was ready to offer last year, but at the second showing the highway noise was unreal. The first time it was negligible. Unexpected for me and something to note. It was the same time of day during the week but must have had something to do with wind versus calm or something. Needless to say I didn’t offer. Home was probably eventually rented. It didn’t sell.
Same reason some people won’t touch a Porsche/Audi EV with a 10 foot pole and prefers Tesla.
I thought we were talking about aesthetics in terms of looks?
Westbanks has two of the worst newer build projects in Victoria. Their only project in Victoria I don’t recall being a disaster is the Parc.
I wouldn’t touch a Westbank project with a 10 foot pole.
As far as creative…yup Shutters sure is “creative ” 🙂
They are not known as some creative developer that develops landmark projects like westbank, if that’s what you are hoping for. They are good efficient and well capitalized. capital park and 365 waterfront were partnerships with jawls for residential/office mixed use developments. Pretty sure they also built astoria and belvedere, that’s probably more similar to what you will get at the Y site. With the recent green building crap, you are going to see alot less glazing which will make all high rise condo developments look shitter IMO.
Only flight path (in addition to harbour air and helijet), with the airport upgrades the air traffic will only get busier.
OMG Sidney has got to be the most boring place in Greater Victoria, it’s like your on the set of the movie Cocoon with so many old people walking around 😉
I grew up in Sidney/North Saanich. It’s great and it’s only gotten better imo. Obviously there are better areas then others but I would have no hesitation to move back, but it also depends on what your needs are.
That’s interesting — does this ring true for others? We are looking to downsize from our Saanich SFH and had been considering Sidney as the local option (vs leaving town for Comox), mainly for walkability but also the ocean access. I haven’t look closely at staying in the core yet.
Pretty much every development they’e done in Victoria asthestically is really nice (for what it is and where it is). Chelsea, 365 Waterfront, ERA, Capital Park, etc.
and the bigger sites in Van are also top notch.
It just doesn’t show that well imo for some reason. I often show 989 Johnson and Legato units back to back and 989 has aged and shows way better in terms of interior finishing. I have a pretty cool factor unit listed right now at 989 Johnson -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29282728/515-989-johnson-st-victoria-downtown
They are ok, alot is dictated by the site. I think upper yates will have growth potential once the build out is complete. Legato looks interesting especially since it had the grandfathered STR status.
Please enlighten me on what this actually is?
I just buy cash.to inside my TSFA/RRSP that way the cash isn’t just sitting there.
As far as getting back in 100% agree with you, if market goes up you don’t want to go back in and if it drops 5% you are hoping it will drop to 10% before you get back in. You end up like these housing bears that simply never buy awaiting the big crash that never comes.
100%, best way to get ahead in life without being super smart is simply using some common sense. ETFs for investing, mere posting/cash back real estate agent when buy/selling, self-insure insurance if you have an older car (don’t buy comprehensive, there is a $500+ savings/year), etc. These can be massive savings over the course of a lifetime. If you can save 20k on real estate fees and put that into the S&P500 that can put you ahead by retirement by quite a bit.
My Tesla ICBC insurance is $700 instead of $1,700 so every year I am dumping an extra $1000 in the markets and one day when I drive it into a tree or someone steals it the return in the market will exceed the cost to replace the car.
“this is why I want to go all ETF so I can stop following/looking at individual stocks.”
ha ha. You are not alone. Every DIY portfolio that I transfer in usually has a ton of cash in it with random stock selections that don’t make sense. I have the highest level of education and training and all my money is in low cost ETF’s (along with my clients). I know enough that I know I can’t time the market or out think a supercomputer. I check my own portfolio once a year to reinvest cash.
Going to cash feels really good, but then it gives you another problem, what to do with the cash. Getting back in is hard as it never looks like a good time. I have no idea short term what will happen (no one does”, the market has gone up when I thought it would go down too many times for me to count.
A great book for every to read is “How not to invest” by Barry Ritholdz
That’s what I’m hoping for VicREanlyst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TgOmY8-G38
Of course. Wide street plus directly in front of the unit is a proposed open space and other than middle of winter direct south sunlight into the unit won’t be lost.
Thing is people don’t like uncertainty. I had a unit on the market for two years at the Falls facing the Telus building. The minute the Telus building reached top floor during construction we sold the unit (buyers could now see what was there and the uncertainty was gone).
Concert does incredibly nice outdoor spaces (think Capital Park) so once this is finished one day I think it’s actually going to be a positive. You’ll walk out the front door of the building facing a beautiful public amenity and it’s a wide street with wide sidewalks, but not a super busy street.
Right now the unit looks over rusty HVAC units on rooftops.
This is the same principal as to why most of my units are in Vic West. People don’t like development in general, but they certainly like it when it is finished. When I bought my Promonotry unit in 2011 for $193k my clients didn’t even like crossing the bridge. Vic West I still think has a ton of potential if Bosa every finished Dockside and the Roundhouse gets going. Unfortunately, I’ll be 75 yrs old by the time it is finished.
Wrong again as usual, the absolute lack of liquidity makes it a horrible investment.
I am assuming you and the buyer factored in the concert towers that are going to go up next door?
The same for waterfront properties in the Gulf Islands. I see some good opportunities. One just has to find that highly motivated seller just outside of the sweet spot of demand. Through in an absentee owner and….
100% agree with you. This has been proven over and over again. Personally, I want to go 100% ETF (and do exactly that, lock the password) and I sold everything at a 36.4% 12-month yield…that just doesn’t make sense, to me anyway, when my biggest holding was a retirement residence play, I bought for dividend income. S&P500 is 11.75% on a 12 month, that is just a loony divergence.
Things have gone up since I cashed out earlier this week but I am just content to sit on the sidelines for a couple of months. I know, probably a bad idea but I would like to see the market (CND dividend payers I like to invest in) sustain these levels for 2 to 3 months before I go back in even if it means losing dividend payments (which I am not really losing fully as I put the cash into cash.to) and potential appreciation but hard to see another huge run up from here. TD is up 57% last 12 months + dividends…..that can’t be sustained, but who knows.
Also when something like Sienna Senior Living is up 4% on a 5 day, 5.5% on a 30 day, 20% 6 month etc., wouldn’t mind seeing how market reacts to an earnings report to start the year. Fundamentally, how much could have changed in the industry in the last 6 months.
and this is why I want to go all ETF 🙂 so I can stop following/looking at individual stocks.
I represented the buyer on this purchase, great value imo! I think that bounces back to a $1.3 to $1.5 mill unit in the next 10 years – exceptionally nice layout. I’ve been writing lots of unconditional offers with my savvy buyers lately and it has yielded some great results. The rescission period, which I don’t agree with in terms of legislation, has been probably the best thing that’s happened in my career. It’s such a useful tool when you know how to use it (both from a seller and buyer side of representation).
btw, the 2016 purchase was directly from the developer so add another 5% to that 2016 sale price.
I recently also had a buyer take advice and make sequential low offers on condos in quality buildings downtown. The first four sellers were not very motivated but the 5th one was. He purchased a 2 bed with parking in a quality downtown building for $531,500 (same floorplan, unit below, sold a couple of years ago for $677,000). Young buyer and is going to get a roomate for the second bedroom so will be living pretty cheap paying down principal.
Toronto market…ouch – https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-home-prices-drop-below-1m-in-t-o-in-slowest-january-since-2009/
“Average prices fell 6.5 per cent. The MLS House Price Index dropped roughly 8 per cent.”
We haven’t had this kind of drop in Victoria since we started keeping stats in 1989. The largest one is 1995 at 5% drop and then everything after that is 2% or less.
At some point, one should enjoy some of their money, unfortunately, most people that are good at squirrelling money away, have a hard time parting with it.
“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.” Charlie Munger
This is where advisors earn their keep with clients by keeping them from making bad/short term decisions. Investing is like adjusting a thermostat, you make little changes. Not like using light switch (on or off).
Before selling ask yourself, what do I know that the market doesn’t know. Any news you have, so do all the traders and algorithms. Best thing you can do is buy low cost indexes and forget your online trading password for 15 years.
With respect to my glorious win….my strategy is to just copy Marko and adjust the numbers a bit. But it seems to work!
MJ extended a professional courtesy he was under no obligation to provide. I would not have disclosed the error privately. The appropriate venue for addressing such a matter is during the appeal, before the board, where the mistake would properly place her analysis under scrutiny. When an error appears in a single comparable, it is entirely reasonable to question whether additional inaccuracies may exist within the broader report.
In a quasi‑judicial setting such as a board appeal, the standard is not perfection but confidence. Introducing doubt is often sufficient to shift the panel’s assessment of credibility.
From a board member’s perspective, this error alone would be enough to call the reliability of her conclusions into question. Under those circumstances, I would have found in MJ’s favor.
Lost money from a 2016 purchase…
904 – 838 Broughton St, Victoria, British Columbia V8W1E4 Sold History | HouseSigma https://housesigma.com/bc/victoria-real-estate/904-838-broughton-st/home/JRv53KDDQKxYVPW4?id_listing=jAXw7QlwxOQyQOzg&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=android&ign=
Did she used to work with I am Groot?
Hopefully in RRSP or TFSA. The tax penalty in a non registered account for selling everything is to high. If I sold everything in my non-registered account i’d be paying 15-20% of the total amount in income tax on capital gains. Then I’d have to time my re-entering the market as well.
No argument that valuations are getting stretched, which means lower returns going forward. I have sold a few things, like ome gold stocks that did nothing for years and have have finally shot up 3-5x.
In theory I should be holding my physical gold and silver (modest amount) as a hedge for TEOTWAWKI but I am getting very tempted to sell.
Back to my BC Assessments ranting. One of the appraisers emails me the comparables she will be using against me at the panel hearing. The closest comparable (in the same building, same layout) she has the sale price incorrect at $355,000 (sold for $335,000) and it notes that the unit does not have parking (but it has parking).
So I reply with “I agree with your first comparable, but actually it sold for $335,000 and it has a parking spot where my unit in question does not have a parking spot.” (just for context my assessment is $360,000 and it’s a worse unit, with no parking).
This is the reply I get
“Hi Marko,
Thank you – I can see the error with xxxx and confirmed with the MLS listing that it did sell for $335,000. I have removed it from my comparable sales.
Warm Regards,”
So we remove the best and most accurate comparable? what da 🙂
Good play to sell your equities, I should have done the same. Holding Microsoft and gold stocks. The gold stocks which underperformed for decades went parabolic while Microsoft, one of the most profitable companies in the world, has been tanking even when record profits are reported. Bitcoin and crypto in general may be going the way of most pyramid schemes. Just a few of the dark clouds on the horizon. Hopefully our government won’t have to sink us deeper in debt on another bailout.
U.S. physicians may be coming to Canada, but I wonder how long they stay. Most people don’t know how the government is steering the ship, not doctors. They don’t have the same freedom to do what they think the patient needs, and must practice in a way that the government wants. I won’t share any specific examples, but strongly suspect that the tail is wagging the dog.
Only the second time in my life but earlier this week I went all cash (and things are up since then, at least what I sold). The boring dividend stuff I’ve been investing in for the last 15+ years is all at near all-time highs…BMO, TD, Fortis, TRP, Sienna Senior Living, etc. I think the only two things I sold that aren’t at all time high is CNR and Telus.
I know the stock market isn’t a reflection of the economy but the 5 year charts are kind of insane, basically vertical recently at the end. I think I am going to sit on the sidelines for a couple of months and go back in Vanguard Canadian High Dividend Yield ETF and not do any individual stocks in the future.
SU7 won’t have the $5,000 federal rebate on it. The $49,990 – $5,000 rebate model Y is going to be difficult to beat for value.
What I would like (that we probably will never get) is
BYD Surf or Renault 5 Electric
Chatting with a friend physician, it sounds like we’re actually getting meaningfully more practitioners from the US with all the shenanigans going on down there and with reduced red tape on this end. It sounds like the healthcare freighter might be slowly turning around.
Housing coming down is a good thing IMHO, and I agree that boring is good – especially with all the stench emanating from down south. Canada could actually come out ahead of the game assuming nothing crazy happens for the next 3 years (big if). I’m also happy to see our federal leadership taking what appears a sensible approach on multiple fronts (SU7 or Y Marko?).
Stock market pretty ‘not boring’ right now 🙁
Carney just announced this morning a $5,000 EV rebate but price cap at $50,000 and only if the car is built in Canada or in a country having free-trade clause with Canada.
Oddly enough two weeks ago Tesla Canada started selling a $49,990 Model Y Germany built (Canada and EU have free trade agreements). Timing seems a little suspicious.
Substantially different product…master on main is a huge thing when it comes to selling townhomes.
Ya hard to say, only comp around the last 6 month I think is 10-4165 rockhome grdns at 1.065. so after adjusting for renos etc. your sale could be about right.
Lower overall transaction costs too.
See below.
2 people have died in ERs in Winnipeg in the last month waiting to be treated. Both had heart problems. Our hospitals are overrun by drug addicts. They are often violent and attack doctors and nurses. Many of them leave the profession. Our government is doing nothing to stop drug abuse, they even promote it by handing them out for free. Not only hospitals, but our emergency services are also overrun and many of the providers are burnt out and on stress leave. Canada should study the Singapore method of dealing with drug dealers.
>> Rated 4th on a vibes-based list still doesn’t get people a GP or shorten a 12-month wait . That ranking doesn’t even measure access to doctors, wait times, or ability to get care when you need it, which is exactly what most people are complaining about. And saying “just pay private” kinda proves the system’s failing. Rankings don’t treat patients, doctors do, and a lot of people can’t even get one.
You’re assuming that other countries don’t have the same or worse problems. But they do. Family Doctor shortage is a worldwide problem affecting many first world countries.
For example “only” 80% of Canadians have a regular doctor which isn’t perfect, but in Sweden only 32% have a family doctor. In BC, you can now get a tele-medicine MD appointment within 24 hours, which is great. If you pay for a private clinic, you can see or phone your regular doctor, and some accept a single visit for a fee. Yes, in Victoria it’s very hard to find a no-fee GP, but that isn’t the case across Canada.
Anyway, Canada health care system is much more than GP office visits, and overall it scores very high in objective worldwide rankings, as I linked below (4th best in world!)
Patrick – Rated 4th on a vibes-based list still doesn’t get people a GP or shorten a 12-month wait . That ranking doesn’t even measure access to doctors, wait times, or ability to get care when you need it, which is exactly what most people are complaining about. And saying “just pay private” kinda proves the system’s failing. Rankings don’t treat patients, doctors do, and a lot of people can’t even get one.
Depends, lots of micro markets out there. I had three offers on a townhome I listed in the High Quadra area a couple of weeks ago and sold over asking (we didn’t purposely underprice it, thought we listed at market).
Also, it’s a good time to be moving up if you have equity. I have a couple of sellers right now that are taking six figure loses, but what they are upgrading to has come down 3x in absolute terms.
On the whole I think it is going to be another boring year of 7,000 sales +/-. Boring is good.
https://vancouversun.com/news/sharp-cuts-coming-to-bc-government-spending-david-eby-finance-minister-brenda-bailey
“Servicing the provincial government’s debt already costs $5.2 billion a year”
Fun times ahead.
Good news. Nice to see Canada Healthcare system still rated near the best in the world. Specifically rated 4th best out of 100 countries. Only Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia rates higher.
btw) people unable to find a GP in Victoria should do what people in most countries do. Namely go to a local private for pay clinic. Several have opened up in Victoria over the last few years and provide high quality service, with direct access to seeing doctor same day or within 1-2 days. Comprehensive care including GP, nutrition, physio etc. For an annual fee, comparable to many people pay a vet for pet care.
Just google Victoria private medical clinic to find them.
Here are the complete world healthcare rankings by country…
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/best-healthcare-in-the-world
Sorry Marko, Croatia ranked quite low (32nd) below Greece and India. Not sure why.
33 single family homes in the core for sale for under a million right now. One is a houseboat. Many more than we’ve seen in a while. I can’t say I fully understand the dynamic at work in this lower end of the single family market and I own a home that fits in there and have followed the market for 10 years or more quite closely. It certainly doesn’t seem to show in the statistics that prices are dropping as much as they evidently are. First you see a lot more in the 8’s than before, when most started with 9’s in the past, then a few 7’s, then more and more, and the odd time a few 6’s. Holy cow! Is it that owners of lower priced homes are more likely to be under financial pressure and thus possibly willing to settle for less? I definitely see some that are out of sync in terms of how low they are listed at (compared to current market norms) and correspondingly how low they sell for, and that’s now a new comp.
The statistics would say my home if I listed it should sell for about what it did last year, or even the year before, or better even, but if you talk to a few agents, from the highs of Feb 2022, the listing suggestion is 15% below the last high at best, and at worst 20%, or possibly more below that, depending on the property and the area. We’re talking single family in the core, the segment that is in shortest supply. $150K or more below only a relatively short time ago. Four years of grinding lower; It’s a painful correction for some people for sure. With prices where they are and also the DOM being so long, if you achieve selling, it’s a painful market to be a seller. And the buyers seem to have dried up.
Re Sidney, I always think it is a bit overpriced when compared to the core. I’m not talking about waterfront or even waterview homes, just your typical Sidney house on a typical Sidney street. They also have high property taxes. I guess if you want Sidney there is less to choose from out there (only 6 houses listed under a million now including one on the peninsula, just as an example) and hence larger demand for a smaller supply may keep prices higher than they otherwise might be.
100%, the issues with my assessments are clear lack of competence. To this day BC Assessments doesn’t factor parking ($50,000 to $60,000) and if they wanted to do they could easily resolve this. I don’t think I should be paying income tax and other to fund BC Assessments lack of competence and then pay additional property taxes due to that lack of competence. I just want my assessments at market value, not sure if that is too much to ask for.
I’ve been a landlord for 15 years now and to date I have not given a single tenant a rent increase, ever. Rather do that for my tenants and pay property taxes in-line with the actual market value of the units.
I also find life experiences from serving as strata president, treasurer, council member, building an owner-builder home, re-zoning a property to an apartment building, appealing BC Assessments, removing spec tax liens from my properties, managing my own rental properties, running an Airbnb, buying pre-sales condos, etc., etc., is quite useful when it comes to answering my clients’ real estate questions. For example, when they ask me a strata question, I’ve been in the role of strata president, and I can actually give them an educated answer and opinion. They buy a house a two years later their assessment is too high – I can give them the real life run down of appealing it. Some people appreciate this, some people just want their real estate agent to tell them the paint colors are great.
As far as “gaming the system” when the government cracked down on Airbnb I realized via venn diagram that I fell into a unique position, and I opened an Airbnb account (registered with province, etc.) and now I make an extra 30k/year I wasn’t making before as a result of government regulation that I don’t agree with it. I figured the crackdown would limit supply causing prices to go up and that is exactly what happened. I don’t really view that type of stuff as “gaming the system;” moreso, adapting. Then out of that extra 30k (which is mostly US guests this year) I give half back to the government so if I am paying a lot in taxes as a result of my efforts I don’t think too much to ask for for my assessment(s) to be market.
and then I go to Croatia to deal with all my health care stuff 🙂
Na, with AI the act of preparing appeals is much easier. I am a net payer of taxes by a wide margin and I am looking to get back what I can. Its not even about the money for me, its the principle.
Thank you @rush4life and @I-Am-Groot for your Sidney-related comments.
Interesting perspective re the appraisal challenges due to it being a ‘micro-market’.
Birdbrain VREB publishes different markets in their statistics – including Peninsula and Sidney. According to their most recent publication, which compares now to last year Sidney is basically flat: https://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseFull.pdf.
When they lower someone’s assessment, it means that everyone else ends up paying a little more tax. So I’m happy that they don’t make it super easy for landlords with lots of properties to routinely appeal any assessments that look high. Instead, these landlords should realize that some of their assessments will seem high and some low. And that balances out.
They should accept that, and find better ways to “save a buck”. And stop “gaming the system” and clogging up government resources by filing appeals routinely each year on their properties.
Sidney is a very small town, and it doesn’t take much to shift sentiment. One or two sales can change the entire market narrative. It’s also mostly retirees. it’s the last home they will ever own so it may be more important to get the home that they want rather than haggle on the price.
It has always been difficult to appraise in Sidney because it is a micro-market. There are only 14 single‑family homes on the market in Sidney right now, and the asking prices range from roughly $715,000 to $5.5 million—a spread so wide it barely functions as a single market. In a typical year you might see half a dozen sales a month at this time, which means every transaction carries disproportionate weight. With such limited inventory and such a broad price band, the data gets noisy quickly. One or two sales can distort the entire picture in any one month.
Because they are government workers with nothing better to do.
Keep hearing that prices in Sidney have gone up and no sign of that changing. SFH and townhomes (condos as well but less so). Any peninsula followers here that have insights? Doesn’t seem that supply is an issue so if prices are rising, what’s the impetus?
Sales: 6700
Single Family Median: $1,050,000
Condo Median: $505,000
December Inventory: 2750
Bank of Canada Rate: 1.75%
Why would the BC Assessment person care whatsoever? The person I had last year was using a comparable that was three years old from 2022 (peak of market).
The panel met me in the middle and reduced $400,000. While the panel was discussing I was in the waiting room with the BC person and we had a friendly chat, really nice guy. However, at the end of day he wasn’t prepared nor did he care about the panel decision. He still gets his pay cheque every two weeks along with all the other benefits.
You think executives are BC Housing care that they have a department that restricts housing supply and makes housing more expensive? For them it’s another department in their portfolio = better compensation as they manage more.
I like to look up the bc assessment people who will be presenting their case to the panel on linkedin and social media and gauge how competent they will be. I wonder if they do the same thing owners.
Try dealing with an insurance claim. Their ultimate goal is to screw you over. The less interaction I have with humans, the better.
They have an entire department at BC Housing “putting up walls” to make it difficult for people to build housing (owner builder exam) at a time when where SFH construction has absolutely collapsed.
The online tenant notice generator is not much better then after you struggle through it you have to print off the notice for the tenant 🙂 Barrier to prevent you from giving notice to tenant?
1.7 million spec tax notices/codes sent out via mail when it could be done via email….is it to put up a wall so people can’t spec tax declare?
No GP, and 10 hrs in emerg yet another barrier so people don’t bother from seeking health care?
but you are right I shouldn’t be complaining. If everyone with a high assessment was able to appeal in a reasonable manner more people would appeal and the municipality would increase the mill rate so it wouldn’t be as much of a benefit to myself.
Marko- It’s called “putting up walls”, designed to discourage most people from bothering. They do it intentionally. It sounds like a real pain in the ass to me. I wouldn’t bother, I’ve got better things to do with my time.
>> Appealing assessments what a giant ****show . You literally need to use mail, email, and phone to arrange the panel meeting.
What a complainer. Making a big deal that it’s an “email” vs a “phone call” seems silly/trivial, because those are both easily done by tapping on your cell phone, from your living room couch. And same with the panel meeting, it’s another phone call from your couch. So sorry, that’s hardly a “giant sh*t show”.
Yes multiple times, it just gets more and more annoying every year getting the panel meeting setup. Once you get the email for the date now you must phone them for the time and get some special number/code then to upload your evidence they give you everything in the email except the PIN which can only be found on the assessment they physically mail you. You literally need to use mail, email, and phone to arrange the panel meeting.
It’s like the are purposely trying to create more work to staff more people.
Have you done the panel thing before?
Reading a Bank of Canada report on the slowdown in Toronto’s condo market. They must be reading this blog.
“Strong population growth, low interest rates and robust investor demand drove an expansion in Toronto’s condo market over the past decade. But times have changed. Toronto’s condos are no longer providing substantial returns for short‑term investors because population growth has eased and interest rates have risen. This is challenging the business models of condo builders.”
“But demand for small condos has fallen considerably over the past year as the net number of newcomers to Canada dropped from 1.4 million in 2023 to under 300,000 between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025. A weaker labour market has likely also played a role. This has led to a sizable mismatch between supply and demand: the market has too many small units and not enough large units that buyers want. Specifically, we estimate that micro units—those with three or fewer rooms—represent 60% of new condo units coming onto the market. However, only 30% of new households have the characteristics typically associated with buyers of micro units. This mismatch is resulting in lower prices and rents for these small units.”
“Here’s a simple example of how an investor could have generated a large return.
Let’s say an investor bought a presale condo worth $1 million in 2016, putting down the $200,000 deposit up front. Just before construction wrapped up three years later, the value of the unit had increased by 40% to $1.4 million. The investor sold the unit at this new price and earned a profit of $400,000, doubling their initial investment. This average return is much stronger than more traditional investment vehicles like stocks or bonds.
But this strategy could also lead to large percentage losses. Let’s say that same condo investor in 2022 put down a $200,000 deposit to buy a presale unit valued at $1 million. Three years later, the prevailing market price had dropped to about $700,000. Despite this decline, the investor still legally owes the builder $1 million, as per the initial contract. An investor choosing to sell would then lose about $300,000—the initial deposit and then some.”
In contrast to Toronto , Victoria is pretty lucky. Victoria never built its entire housing pipeline around micro‑unit investor stock. Toronto did. When 60% of new supply is micro units but only 30% of new households fit the buyer profile, the outcome isn’t a mystery. Blame that one on those damn Victoria city planners dragging their arses instead of rubber stamping the approvals.
There are some caveats to the above that were not mentioned regarding financing. If the lender could use the pre-sale contract price or the current market value. OSFI has sinced changed that loop hole or is just about to. A lot of changes are to be implimented in the second quarter.
Thanks Leo. Here are my predictions for 2026:
Sales – 7,100
Single family – $1,155,000
Condos – $545,000
Inventory – 2,650
Bank rate – 2.25%
My guess is a boring 2026 for the Victoria housing market.
Bring baked cookies.
Appealing assessments what a giant ****show….they can’t even send an email without a bunch of typos. I think so far I’ve been on seven phone calls with BC assessments and nothing tangible has been achieved.
“Your Review Panel hearing will take place on:
Date: February 11, 2028 by Review Panel 611: Residential Vancouver Island
Toll free phone number and access code provided with appointment booking”
I’m not so sure about that, VicREAnalyst. A couple of years ago I was telling people to buy as much gold as they could. Not a single person has ever said they followed my advice.
I’m expecting good things in 2026.
… “ Just direct your feet
To the sunny side of the street”
Here’s my predictions:
Sales- 6700
Single family-1.25 million
Condos-540k
Inventory-2325
Bank rate 2.25%
I’m top 4, one place better . I’ll take that 🙂
LMAO, doing the opposite of what your were advocating over the past 17 years has minted many millionaires. Doing exactly what you advise would have resulted in regrets, resentments and divorces.
You’re calling a downside risk a crash. Fine. Whatever. Do your thing.
Lol, how’s calling for a RE crash since 2009 working out for you? ……..Ya that’s what I thought.
If you’re buying a condo today with the intention of renting it out, it really is a case of buyer beware. Operating costs are almost certain to rise next year, and a unit that appears cash‑flow neutral right now carries meaningful downside risk.
In a healthy market, prices eventually fall to a level that draws investors back in. But at the moment, a projected return of zero doesn’t justify the uncertainty, the rising expenses, or the illiquidity that comes with purchasing today. Prices simply haven’t adjusted to reflect those risks.
That’s partly because this is no longer an investor‑driven market. It’s increasingly shaped by local end‑users—people buying homes to live in rather than assets to generate yield. That shift changes the pricing dynamics and slows the kind of correction that would normally entice investors back.
End‑users anchor prices to incomes, not yields. And when end‑users dominate, the market tends to drift back toward its long‑term trend line. It just does so quietly—more through extended listing times and gradual softening than through dramatic price drops.
In the short term, I doubt we’ll see significant declines across the broader market. What’s more likely is a steady increase in days‑on‑market as conditions tilt toward a slower, stickier seller’s market. There will be the occasional “wow” sale when a motivated seller needs speed over price, but those will be exceptions rather than the rule.
So is bear mountain.
Is that one cashflow neutral now?
I see dark clouds on the horizon. 2026 could be a disastrous year on many fronts: financial markets, wars, tariff fallout, unemployment, you name it. Load up on beans and bullets.
We could see an influx of Americans and undocumented immigrants flowing into the country. That will have positive and negative effects.
Here’s my predictions:
Sales- 6750
Single family-1.2 million
Condos-520,000
Inventory-2650
Bank rate-1.75%
I have a client with an accepted offer downtown right now and the purchase price is more than 30% less than what an identical comparable sold in the building only nine months ago. This is a newer quality concrete building too (solid product).
Certain condo product (outside of downtown primarily) is still hanging in there. A unit sold last week in my building for $910,000 and it was purchased in mid 2021 for $760,000 so quality buildings in a good location still doing okay but right downtown is a tough go.
The current market is great for people looking to get into the market and savvy developers to snag up some nice properties. Don’t see anything wrong with it. We are getting pretty close to cashflow neutral on some SFH and small 1 bed condos so if the bottom isn’t in yet is within striking distance, any value buys now should be good for the medium (5 years) and long term (10 years).
700k for a one bed low rise on Oakbay ave with meh views and no real outdoor space? I don’t see the appeal.
MJ is right to flag quality substitution. It’s almost impossible to capture at the macro level—medians, averages, even the HPI all flatten it out.
At the individual‑unit level, though, the effect becomes visible. You can watch the depreciation rate shift as external market forces change around the property.
One advantage of working as a real estate appraiser is that lenders routinely order appraisals on properties under contract. In those assignments, the appraiser completes a cost approach to support the market approach, and that process requires calculating depreciation across three categories: physical, functional, and external. When the indicated market value diverges sharply from the depreciated cost, that gap often isolates the externalities at play.
And I have seen this in some of the re-sales as the rate of depreciation from all sources has increased beyound that of accountable in normal physical and functional depreciation. Not just in condos but in some houses as well. When I once used 30 percent accrued depreciation for say a house in Glandford, I now use 40 percent. But the identical home in a upscale neighborhood may still be 30 percent.
I’ve alluded to this in previous posts under a bifurcating market.
Not seeing the doom and gloom , looking for the economy to pu steam and a decent real estate market . I thought Leo’s stats didn’t look to too bad . Our biggest risk is trump is in everyone’s head and folks are pretty thin skinned
I am surprised at how far condos have fallen. Marko’s listing here being a good example: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29317853/403-1916-oak-bay-ave-victoria-jubilee This particular building is almost brand new and well-located but units have had dramatic declines since initial sales – and the first buyers also paid GST…
Then the crappy ones will sell for less unless you are saying they are not transacting.
Top 5 for 2025, I’ll take that.
My 2026 predictions
Sales: 7,200
Single Family Median (Q4): $1,130,000
Condo Median (Q4): $530,000
December Inventory: 2,700
Bank of Canada Rate 2.00% (despite the all time stock market high I just have this gut feeling the CND economy is crap and we see one rate cut at the end of the year).
fyi, for condos prices have dropped a lot further than average, median, HPI, or anything else would indicate. Buyers are simply buying better condos in better stratas for the same amount of money and even HPI cannot adjust for that.
I feel that it will be a tough road ahead for real estate anywhere in Canada. But especially for Toronto, Vancouver and yes…even for Victoria. Predictions are difficult of course, but I always look to the bigger picture, outside our borders. I’ve said it before, the world is going through one of the biggest shifts for a long time. A multi polar world, instead of one dominated and controlled by the USA , will mean a lot of conflict as the US struggles to hold on and survive. This change has been going on for quite some time before Trump.
I believe that this is unstoppable and it is going to change our lives.
There is no quick fix either.
Prices will drop as people lose their jobs and tax increases will make it even harder to hang on.
I don’t see any way around this
.
Haha….That’s just how I feel and I will likely look like an idiot a year from now and some will argue that it will not take the year:)