December: Steady market wraps up the year
Little change in the market to end the year, with condo sales remaining quite sluggish and essentially unchanged in the last 5 months, while single family activity came in a bit stronger, though the big jump in October’s activity did not last.
The trend of weaker new listings also continued in December. It’s unclear exactly whether that’s because there’s less re-listing activity or it’s actually fewer fresh listings, but the stagnation in inventory makes me think it’s likely a bit of both. No one is going to be too excited to throw their properties onto an already pretty big pile.
The trend in seasonally adjusted inventory has now turned down. We’ve had a few of these dips since 2021 so I wouldn’t confidently call us past the peak just yet, but we’re going to have to see weaker sales or stronger new listings to push higher into the 4000+ level we were at in 2012 / 2013.
Essentially no change to market balance in December, with both months of inventory and the sales to new list ratio coming in similarly to November levels.
Combining the two measures shows a very small improvement from November, with the market just about perfectly balanced.
Balanced market means stable prices, and that was the case in December.
Pretty wild looking at all the things that happened in 2025 and the market ends up essentially in the same place it was a year ago. The drops in interest rates and improvements in affordability were roughly cancelled out by economic and political turmoil, with values going exactly nowhere for 12 months. That’s reflected in generally stable assessments, which is quite different than the lower mainland condo market which got sideswiped pretty hard.
It’s also time to review our 2025 predictions and update some long run and affordability data for the market. Not quite ready yet but I’ll put up that post soon.
Victoria Real Estate Board has released its January 2026 real estate data.
2028
Wow, where’s all the sales at?
It’s her money now, and she makes her own decisions. She chose the institution and the investments herself. I offered to join her meeting with the branch manager and advisor, but she told me she wanted to handle it on her own. She dressed professionally and spent two hours in discussion with them. That’s when I knew she’d be fine—she was stepping fully into her own accountability and responsibility.
What you don’t understand VicREanalyst is that it isn’t about the money at all.
As slow as the market is, good products are still selling at strong prices. 1827 Dunnett Cres went 25k above ask and 180k over assessment. Although assessment was low I thought this was a low 1.3m house at best.
Lmao you are the biggest clown ever. I’ll give you a chance to edit all your posts before I expose your entire made up scenario.
If I’d followed VicReanalyst’s advice, I’d be stuck trying to unload a Vancouver condo in a down market. My daughter still has two years left at UVic, and after that she’s heading to Ontario. There’s plenty of time for her to figure out where she actually wants to live and she’ll have the money to do it.
These things are small scale and most don’t require traditional pre sales to get construction financing so that combined with the slow market you won’t see many sold out projects prior to completion. You can see a bunch of them come on the MLS now that they are complete. I think 6 is a good number given how many are on the market currently and the fact that it’s a new product with price discovery taking place. As expected though, the ones with private outdoor space are the ones selling for a good price.
> Unit also sold at the Emerson six-plex this morning and quite a few of these missing middle projects now have accepted offers in place too that haven’t gone unconditional so not yet reported (at least 6 AOs across various projects I am aware of).
“ 6 AOs across various projects I am aware of”
Only 6 units?? Upzoning (for missing middle) has been in place since Dec 2023 , that’s 2+ years. Posting it as encouraging that 6 units now have been sold points to what a flop this has been. Of course we would be expecting to be now seeing much bigger numbers of sales in the hundreds or thousands if we expect it to move the needle on housing.
If these things are such a great idea, why aren’t they selling out. How many of these missing middle projects have completely sold out all units to date?
What’s strange is doubling down on wrong calls. If you haven’t noticed, owning RE is becoming harder and harder and setting up a child with RE from the get go is a huge advantage parents can provide for their children. Having someone else pay for the mortgage for your child’s eventual RE is a no brainer and I am doing that for my kids. Majority of those who haven’t done this are currently regretting it.
Lmao good thing her path shifted because you would not have been able to afford the condo if she needed it by just “saving” for it.
Last month, a court‑ordered sale of a condominium was listed at $299,900 and drew an accepted offer at that price. When it went before the court, the bidding pushed the final number up to $333,500—proof that there are still buyers willing to compete when a property is priced attractively.
For context, the same unit sold for $450,000 in 2022. That was the peak of the frenzy, when it was all too easy to get swept up in the momentum. Today’s result doesn’t revisit those heights, but it does show that demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply become more disciplined.
That courtroom bump is the tell. You don’t get competitive bidding in a cold market. You get it when multiple buyers have been circling, waiting for something priced low enough to justify stepping in. It’s a small but unmistakable signal of underlying demand in the downtown condo market. A forced sale, priced low, still attracts multiple bidders and clears above list.
Or leverage the condo to buy another one , win win
It’s a strange thing, trying to plan a life that isn’t yours. When my daughter was a young teenager, she talked about going to UBC, so I started saving with the idea of buying her a condo in Vancouver. By nineteen, her path shifted.
So I let the old plan go. Instead of a condo fund, I bought her a car and gifted her the $175K I’d set aside for that future.
Now, at twenty‑one, she has her own financial advisor and wealth manager — charting her own course, exactly as she should.
The hardest part of parenting isn’t providing — it’s letting go with grace.
A decade is quite a while. I’ve also noticed a lot of kids of friends going all over the place for post secondary – Vancouver, PG, Okanagan, Alberta, Ontario, NS, NFLD, East Coast US. So it’s hardly a given that kids will need/use it. That said if it does work out for one or more kids to use it, holding on may work out to be a great decision.
i know how you feel. On the other hand remember that a wiggly line with an upward slope is going to spend a lot of time at or near all time highs
Well if you got a kid to plan for then 100% keep it. I would do that even if I was cashflow negative a little. You could explore trading down the condo to a smaller one bedroom as I think those either have or are close to bottoming but then you would trigger capital gains and transaction costs but you would likely get better yield and have some money left to put into the market.
Sell the condo and buy a house in a foreign country, like Alberta.
Thanks for the feedback on my condo sale or rent question.
There is definitely less inquiries from people looking for a rental than 12 months ago. The rental market is softer for sure and rents have come down a bit.
I do have room in my TFSA and RRSP but I also have a future need (at least right now I perceive I do) for the condo as my kids will need a place for University or to live in a decade.
I realize that 245K in a index fund may outperform however someone is actively paying off an asset for me that will be fully paid off in 10 years. I just checked the depreciation report and there will likely be a $25,000 special assessment within the next 5 years (plan is to pull that $ from refinance during next mortgage renewal). Also, I’m slightly worried about the stock market being at all time highs and the dull condo market (selling would be slow). If the real estate market was a sellers market I would feel differently.
Thoughts on these new details?
Maybe AI is in control.
Don’t usually get the numbers Sunday night but someone must be working OT at the VREB 🙂
Slow sales out of the gate! With the BoC likely to hold the entire year I think this is going to be the 5th grind it out year in a row.
Feb 1st, 2026
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 339 422
New Listings 1,184 1,172
Active Listings 2,624 2,395
The lowest‑priced downtown bachelor on the market is at 515 Chatham, listed at $1,500 per month or $4.62 per sq.ft.
The most affordable one‑bedroom is at 1950 Blanshard for $1,600, equal to $3.37 per sq.ft.
Among two‑bedrooms, the lowest asking rent is $2,300 at 860 View Street, or $2.56 per sq.ft.
A sub‑penthouse at 834 Johnson is offered at $2,850, working out to $3.42 per sq.ft.
Across 39 active listings, the average asking rent for a downtown condominium is $2,123 per month.
Last month’s median downtown condo sale price was $502,000 (subject to revision), which corresponds to a gross rent multiplier (GRM) of 19.7.
Unit also sold at the Emerson six-plex this morning and quite a few of these missing middle projects now have accepted offers in place too that haven’t gone unconditional so not yet reported (at least 6 AOs across various projects I am aware of).
My feeling is once the market finds the pricing I think missing middle product will sell okay. There are always going to be buyers that like the appeal of these esspecially the ones that are on quiet residential streets. Some buyers will prefer that to being in a larger townhome development on Shelbourne or Cedar Hill Cross and for the condo style missing middle units better than being in most condo building locations.
Here is a missing middle sale, looks like back corner with decent sized private out door space. Old tear down on 7400 sqft lot was bought for 652k in sep 2024.
4 – 588 Whiteside St, Saanich, British Columbia V8Z1Y6 Sold History | HouseSigma https://housesigma.com/bc/saanich-real-estate/4-588-whiteside-st/home/JRv53KDE4D2YVPW4?id_listing=bEDRYazg9a6y1VaB&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=android&ign=
If that were for an investment condo it’s one thing (bad enough), but if it were where I live, I’d be moving if it doesn’t change.
Most of the pre-sales I bought pre 2016 have returned around 700% on the downpayment so not sure about a terrible investment.
Not older, just a very convincing person built a false narrative that approx. half the owners are too dumb to recognize. The individual also carefully controls everything. As I noted we haven’t had an in-person SGM or AGM since they took over the council.
Also, they brought followers onto the council that are also too dumb to recognize that the building is being steered in the wrong direction.
Then throw in a Vancouver law firm (Victoria strata lawyers refused to take this on) that puts billing 10s of thousands to the strata priority over giving common sense advice. The way the partner lawyer from this particular law firm handled a SGM was appalling.
A lot of people are too dumb to also recongize the more chaos there is the more this law firm is billing in terms of legal bills every month.
People in the know (local strata management companies) quit within 2 to 3 months of being hired. Four quit but the council threatens them legally if they disclose why they quit so we get a letter from each strata property management company that they are “resigning” and that letter signed by the property management company is drafted by the council engaged law firm. I didn’t know this was legal, but apparently it is.
I guess there’s a lot of greater fools out there.
Like all blanket statements tend to be, this one is wrong. Objectively so: https://creastats.crea.ca/mls/vict-median-price
That strata takeover by what seems to be Chinese mafia-like characters is nuts. I’d be selling. Judge needs to step up on this one.
In our case, we’ve been pleasantly surprised by strata council. Super reasonable retired professionals who know what they are talking about and make sensible decisions that make economic sense for the building. And do it for free.
What do you consider those to be just curious?
People often warn against “catching a falling knife,” and you can see exactly what they mean when you look at some listing histories. A property starts at $1,100,000, then drops to $1,029,000, then $975,000, then $899,000, and eventually lands at $829,000. The price isn’t being discovered; it’s being chased downward.
Relative to the recent past there seems to be some good prices today in the starter house category.
Absolutely Watcher. There was a time you could smell the tire rubber burning to get to homes like this one to put an offer in. This one has been listed for 73 days now.
https://listings.platinumcreativestudios.com/mls/199648661
If you’re looking to buy a single‑family home in the McBriar neighborhood, expect to spend around $1,200,000. Most properties fall between $1,000,000 and $1,450,000. That price typically gets you a remodeled circa‑1985 home with roughly 2,200 finished square feet on a 7,200‑square‑foot lot. Newer builds or more extensively updated homes sit at the top of the range.
At $1.1 million, a missing‑middle home is essentially a trade‑off: you’re giving up lot size to secure new construction and the McBriar address. The alternative is an older townhouse of similar interior size—roughly 20 to 25 years older—for about $860,000, plus another $100,000 in updates. Even then, you’re still in a 25‑year‑old complex.
Given those choices, most buyers will gravitate toward the turn‑key townhouse. It delivers modern finishes, predictable costs, and minimal friction.
~~~
finally land./old homes prices are coming down to 850k range in decent school areas.
was looking at a few older boxes recently, anything around 750-850k are hot buys in my selected area lol
Are a lot of those proxies from older people? We had a similar situation (20+ proxies) in one condo building we lived in years ago, and it was one guy who successfully worked older folks for proxies where they felt overwhelmed by hard decisions.
A limit of no more than 5 proxies sounds ok to me.
I think it’s impacting market value upwards of 15%. The council writes their own minutes (the last 4 management companies they’ve hired they only hire them for “financial services only,” aka collecting strata fees). So you have amateurs organzing elevator maintenance , etc.
Interesting. That is something people could scan for in the minutes. Assuming the board is producing accurate minutes.
That would definitely be a red flag for any buyer doing due diligence on the council minutes If they actually put that in the minutes
Like I’ve said in the past, condos are a terrible investment. When you invest in real estate, you are investing in land. The building is secondary. Condo “investors” are basically speculating that there is a greater fool out there.
One thing that’s a common theme I am seeing emerging in some of these strata wars is “unusual high proxy vote.” The government really needs to step in and limit one person to five proxies maximum imo. In the bonkers situation I am dealing with we have one council individual showing up to zoom meetings with upwards of 50 proxies which means those owners giving proxies aren’t attending to hear both sides. With our situation we’ve never had an in-person meeting since a new council took power, all zoom. Since the one person has so many proxies they started one SGM with a motion not to allow discussion and it passed as they had the proxies. Just wild stuff.
I am involved in a bonkers situation in Victoria in a near new building. Just a matter of time before the media covers it. How crazy is it? 5th strata property management company in 18 months. The previous 4 have “resigned.”
Combination of one power hungry person and a shocking number of owner followers who have very poor critical thinking skills. When a 41% strata fee increasse was required I thought okay they will lose their supporters, nope. (A big chunk of the increase was useless legal fees).
Definitely makes you question strata life 🙂
On the other hand the building I live in is flawlessly run. Strata increases of 3% the last few years (low in comparison to others). One thing that helped a few years ago is our strata council called a SGM right away to remove a council member that was starting to cause issues and the person was removed. You really need a good person at the helm because it appears a good chunk of the population can be manipulated into any narrative.
Since covid I am starting to see more and more crazy out there.
One has to envy the homeless, waterfront, no property taxes or utilities, free shopping cart parking, lots of storage, furnished, what more can you ask for?
Whoa. That is totally bonkers.
Yes that’s the one at the Harbourside that would have interested us had we been anywhere close to downsizing. As someone pointed out, it also barely if any increased in value over the last 10 years (or something like that). And so it might have still been an ok decision as a lifestyle move, but only at the right time and not buying years in advance.
I don’t mind older properties per se (I mean, due diligence is definitely required, but I wouldn’t write them off just because they’re older). That particular one had very large decks/terraces, unusually so, and we liked the location.
Condo living can be great, but when it goes bad, like wtf man.
https://tricitiesdispatch.com/grand-central-coquitlam-strata-war/
I don’t compare concrete and steel high‑rises with wood‑frame construction—they’re fundamentally different assets with distinct aging profiles. Smaller strata complexes also tend to be more appealing to buyers than the large multi‑unit developments.
In BC, any strata with five or more units must obtain a depreciation report. Depending on the building, that report can be a blessing or a curse. It can bring discipline, transparency, and long‑term stability—or it can expose years of deferred maintenance and push strata fees sharply upward.
Buildings with four or fewer units don’t have to have depreciation reports and may show lower strata fees, but that can just as easily signal deferred maintenance rather than genuine affordability. They may be underfunded requiring special assessments in the future.
Some homeowners along Dallas Road like to claim they have ‘water frontage,’ but the phrase is always softened with qualifiers—‘our house has water frontage along Dallas Road.’ It’s really just a casual way of invoking the neighbourhood’s coastal feel, not a literal description of the property’s geography. By contrast, properties on Beach Drive that actually touch the shoreline command substantially higher prices.
Spectacular water views but not waterfront. The only person in Dallas Road with actual waterfront is the homeless guy in the picnic shelter at Finlayson Point
That’s debatable, in practice I think most people would consider Dallas road as waterfront. Anyways, I am just skeptical of triplex penthouses being a substitute for a traditional highrise penthouse.
No, I meant as a comparable for a missing middle top floor unit. Someone looking at a brand new top floor missing middle unit is unlikely to be comparing it to a 35 year old penthouse.
(i.e., 501-511 Rithet is brand new at $2,647,280 vs Oakdowne top floor unit or some other missing middle project).
I don’t think I would call that waterfront. It has its own problems (relatively busy road in-front, ugly ferry terminal, etc). Still fetched $3 million.
Interesting enough looks like they are already remediating the railing on the top floor unit in the Google Street view from this summer.
But that’s an apartment not a missing middle triplex.
Ya and that’s water front, I specifically said the ones without exceptional location/views will have problems. Like the one in Oakdown.
501 – 511 Rithet is a good comparable at $2,647,280 at 1,873 sq.ft. imo.
You haven’t seen the comparisons yet as they are still in design phase. FSR in COV high priority growth areas is 1.6:1, max lot coverage 45%…10,000 sq.ft. in COV you are over 3,400 sq.ft. for the “penthouse” no problem. Only a matter of time, imo, before some picks up a 14,000 sq.ft. lot and goes for a huge top floor unit with views somewhere in Fairfield. Maybe a big lot on Dallas Rd too.
Can’t say I would say a 35+ year old building in James Bay is comparable to a brand new top floor missing middle unit in Oak Bay, Cadboro Bay, or similar. Just the feel alone is going to be totally different in terms of ceiling height, size of patio doors, etc. The penthouse you linked has baseboard heaters, 7′ patio doors, etc.
In my opinion, a quality built top floor missing middle unit will sell well but it will take some time for the market to find itself.
The highest price ever on record for such is literally in a top floor missing middle type unit, 201 – 9600 Second St at $3.0 million.
Come on, that one is two units joined into one and has inner harbour views on the other side. The place is also over 4000sqft, there is no comparison.
https://housesigma.com/bc/victoria-real-estate/909-910-100-saghalie-rd/home/56k97wqqE1xYKRjD?id_listing=dXze3eVwNppY8m9K&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=
This older penthouse in James bay that sold for $2.5 is probably a better comparison to the hypothetical 3rd floor middle market penthouse you have in mind but still, even though the building is 35+ years old it is still a much superior product than than what you are talking about.
https://housesigma.com/bc/victoria-real-estate/1101-630-montreal-st/home/bEDRYaggrKQ71VaB?id_listing=gAaOyLKM8qKYGxMb&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=
Just for clarification, I prefer a big building personally as I don’t have to be involved in a strata if I don’t want to, I don’t have two or three neighbours in a hypothetical triplex/fourplex running into my Airbnb guests and being nosey, etc. All the maintenance is taken care of (realistically with a missing middle project you will need to discuss in person landscaping maintenance, etc., with the other owners) and I use the gym in my building which is a time saver from having to go offsite to use a gym, and I like being a busier location and a 8 minute walk to downtown.
That being said I see quite a few benefits to these missing middle “penthouses.”
In terms of getting along, sure. However, I am involved in a huge disaster of strata council governance right now and it is a 110 unit building.
Fundamentally thought I can’t see the special assessments on a triplex/fourplex being anywhere close to a “proper condo.” The going rate per unit right now for an envelope remediation is 150k to 200k per unit. Penthouses are typically 2x the size so let’s say 300k to 400k. If you are in a triplex or fourplex there is no way an envelope is going to be 900k or 1.2 million for the structure.
A proper penthouse sold in the building across for me earlier this month for $4,750,000 and strata fees of $2,800/month. Even at that pricepoint you are in Vic West overlooking downtown/shipyard, parking spots (no garage), you share an elevator(s) with everyone else.
A “penthouse” in a triplex could be located on quiet residential street in South Oak Bay, can be designed with a two car garage with a private elevator up to your unit, and your strata fees are going to be less than 1/2 per square foot.
and if one was to ICF build it other than amenities (pool, gym) and height not sure what exactly it would be missing over a proper condo.
Care to elaborate? I’m in the design phase for what my family will likely want in the future, but not sure if anyone else would want.
Unless it’s a big space (>2000 sqft)with plenty of outdoor space and the views are spectacular. 3rd floor products don’t do it.
>> Somehow when I look at a triplex like that I think, well then why not just buy a downsizing SFH
Agreed. Especially when prices are >$2m, a SFH makes more sense than a “penthouse” in a triplex.
Given the numbers from NE14T’s rental , that’s good advice from Frank to “take the money and run”.
Mum n pop investment properties are too much work and hassle. Not something I would want to do.
This is a tricky one. On the surface $245,000 at a conservative 5% is yielding better than your monthly cash flow + principal repayment not factoring in potential appreciation/depreciation of the condo.
I’ve looked at my own numbers and still difficult to draw any conclusions. For example, my RRSP are up 311% since 2012.
Condo I bought at the same time up 200% +/- market value; however, when you account for leverage up 700% on the downpayment I made at the time and it’s been cash flow positive every month (which I used to pay down mortgage faster so almost paid off).
The difficult part is predicting future appreciation. Right now there is so much recency bias. Condos flat/down for 4 years with rents now coming down and TSX up 30% in the last 12 months. It also seems like there is no hope for condo real estate in the near term and TSX/S&P regularly hitting all time highs.
I think my decision would come down to as Ash noted TSFA/RRSP room, or not.
That being said when everyone is bailing on their investment properties to buy into the indexes at all time highs it does make me pause a bit.
Anyone giving financial advice would need to know more about the individual. Important factors like age, future pensions, current income, other debts, and potential longevity would be required. And if you can handle a large potential special assessment, say, 20-30 grand. Sounds like it doesn’t generate much income so I would take the money and run. A year ago you should have bought silver and gold, but who knew?
Do you have room in your TFSA and/ RRSP?
Also have to factor in how much you mind being a landlord, and whether you might have a future need for the condo e.g. kids that will need a place to live.
Looking for thoughts. Would you:
Sell rental property (2 bed, 1 bath, condo) and make about $245,000 after paying back remaining mortgage, real estate commission, and capital gains tax. Then put that $245K into low cost growth ETF .
OR
Keep condo and continue to rent for $2300 per month with these numbers:
Mortgage of $1255
Strata of $525
Income tax hit of $208
Property Taxes of $187
Insurance of $50
Total: $2210
Yes, thanks, I also see some being built out here in North Saanich – there’s one like that right on the water just on the north end of Sidney (walking distance to all Sidney shops). PS Sidney prices seem to have gone kind of nuts last few years.
Anyways – personally I would shy away from those triplexes or four-plexes. My parents were in a fourplex on the water in West Van. They thought it was perfect, until the building started to seriously deteriorate and the 4 owners couldn’t agree on anything in terms of how to proceed. It was a very difficult situation. I think a certain critical mass of owners maybe would have helped smooth things out. In a very small group like that, if you don’t get along ok, suddenly it’s really bad. Anyways, that’s what that was.
Somehow when I look at a triplex like that I think, well then why not just buy a downsizing SFH. But with a “proper condo building”, that’s not where my head goes.
No amenities still and likely without many restaurants etc. in walking distance. Also with all that included for the penthouse, what is left for the other units?
Most of these will be north of $2 million so not sure if exactly cheaper? I would say the location of these on average will be a lot more premium than your average penthouse in a condo building (Downtown, James Bay, Vic West, etc.). I know of one being designed in Cadboro Bay where the “penthouse” will have unobstructed ocean views.
For example, some of the nicer penthouses are in Swallows Landing but the location is not great whatsoever.
If someone can package one of these missing middle “penthouses” with a double garage, elevator, ICF construction, on a quiet residential street probably a better product than a penthouse in a condo. At that point the major advantages of the condo building are height (veiws) and amenities.
While the top floor of a three story triplex could technically be called a “penthouse”, I expect a lot of buyers would “scoff and roll their eyes” if it doesn’t have some “real penthouse” features – like nice views, big deck, luxury features etc.
When I’m out and about, I’m struck by how many people rely on scooters or power wheelchairs to get around. It doesn’t mean every three‑storey building needs an elevator, but there’s clearly a small, underserved market for those who would genuinely benefit from one.
Anyone who has spent time with someone facing mobility challenges learns very quickly that a single step—something most of us never even notice—can become an insurmountable barrier. It’s a reminder of how easily the built environment can exclude people without ever intending to.
So these are for meant for people who can’t afford a real penthouse in a high rise? The location has to be premium for this to work and I am not sure if Oakdown is it.
There are number of high-end missing middle projects being built that will feature townhomes on the first two floors and a “penthouse” on top (with an elevator). There are at least five I can think of either under construction or being designed as we speak, here is one example -> https://www.whitewolfhomes.ca/oakdownetriplex
This issue with the condo building penthouses is the strata unit entitlement. Not only are your strata fees typically 2k +/- per month you could be looking at special assessments double or triple everyone else in the building. So if everyone else is at 100k +/- you could be at 200k or 300k because of the penthouse square footage.
With the missing middle unlikely to have large special assessments in the future as they are built more like SFHs rather than large condo towers.
I keep hoping that sometime before we downsize (not for another 5-10 years I would think), someone will build what we want – and that CoveCrest thing isn’t it. That penthouse at the Harbourside building near Laurel Point that sold just a while ago might have been just right, but buying it that far in advance of moving and then trying to rent it for years wasn’t really optimal. Anyways, it’s an ok problem to have, obviously.
No rate cut by the BoC. Holding steady at 2.25%
That puts a spring recovery in the housing market in doubt
There is going to be significant changes in banking over the next couple of years. Less time for the human lenders working on the applications and a lot more AI. As long as the boxes are checked, the file is compliant. Whatever happens after that???
No PTT, no GST for first time buyers (that is 70k savings over a few years ago and prices have come down a bit too and interest rates are down as well). At some point they will start moving.
If you have the income and someone will lend you the downpayment you can buy these with almost zero down (bank financing you on the price plus GST and then the feds send you the 5% GST cheque a few months later and you return the money to who you borrowed it off). Banks need to close this loophole.
I don’t know, is it really 2x this? -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29298171/4-2215-greenlands-rd-saanich-arbutus
I know this is a brand new product but if you exclude Sidney (large waterfront duplexes) the most expensive duplex or townhome sale in Greater Victoria is a waterfront townhome in Cordova Bay ($2,150,000 in 2024) followed by a waterfront duplex sale on Hollywood Cres for $2,115,000 in 2023 and then a townhome on Dallas Road for $2,050,000 in 2025 (these were all re-sale, no GST).
Do I think these will set new records? Yes I do, but $2.5+GST is north of $2.6….that is a record setting by a wide margin.
Who knows thought, product like we’ve never seen before.
As I’ve said before, claims made without evidence can be dismissed the same way.
We’ve had six non‑view land sales in Ten Mile Point between 1.3 and 1.5 million. The most recent waterfront lot on Sea View sold for nearly 2.2 million. The contributory value of a water view is the difference. The market has already answered the question.
Lmao what a crock of shit.
Ten Mile Point is a deceptively complex market. The neighbourhood offers everything from narrow water glimpses to full panoramic exposures, and that variability alone widens the value range far beyond what you see in more uniform areas.
The typical buy‑in sits around $2.1 million. At that level, you’re generally looking at a circa‑1975 home of roughly 3,200 square feet on a half‑acre lot—solid scale, mature landscaping, and the privacy that defines the peninsula.
Most non‑waterfront properties fall between $1.5 million and $2.75 million. Homes that push above that band tend to be outliers: 6,000 square feet or more, and finished to a genuinely high standard rather than simply updated.
There are a few older 1980s townhomes in Wedgewood Estates that trade in the $1.2 million range, though they come to market infrequently. The same scarcity applies to the condominium stock.
The ones you’re looking at, Peter, are atypical for the area. Depending on how the trees break, the upper floor may offer better views than the street suggests. If the principal rooms capture a clean, unobstructed southerly water view, you can add roughly $750,000.
That’s the Twelve Cedars development.
In that neighborhood, 1960s single‑family homes typically trade around $1,000,000, with most house sales falling between $800,000 and $1,200,000 depending on condition and updates.
Or, if you prefer you could pick up a 30‑year‑old townhouse in the same area for roughly $850,000 and spend money on renovations to bring the town home up to near new condtion.
Yeah I know. I still think in the 2’s is too light
Looks like the unsold missing middle townhouse build at 3907 cedar hill are on all on the mls now. interested to see what the rest go for.
This isn’t a waterfront, I think it’s actually on Tudor.
It will be interesting to find out. You’re the expert, but I’d guess 3,000 square feet of new construction in that location, $3+ million easy.
Way back when, we blew a chance to buy a waterfront property there on Sea View that was listed for about $2 million. Someone else scooped it and built new, now listed for I think $7.5 or something like that. Ah well, you can’t get everything right.
AI fiction?
Wtf is the mcbriar neighborhood?
If you’re looking to buy a single‑family home in the McBriar neighborhood, expect to spend around $1,200,000. Most properties fall between $1,000,000 and $1,450,000. That price typically gets you a remodeled circa‑1985 home with roughly 2,200 finished square feet on a 7,200‑square‑foot lot. Newer builds or more extensively updated homes sit at the top of the range.
At $1.1 million, a missing‑middle home is essentially a trade‑off: you’re giving up lot size to secure new construction and the McBriar address. The alternative is an older townhouse of similar interior size—roughly 20 to 25 years older—for about $860,000, plus another $100,000 in updates. Even then, you’re still in a 25‑year‑old complex.
Given those choices, most buyers will gravitate toward the turn‑key townhouse. It delivers modern finishes, predictable costs, and minimal friction.
Thank you, Marko.
Hmm don’t know until they are registered as off market deals, somewhere between $2.2 and $2.5 million most likely.
Here is the link but no prices:
https://covecrest.ca/
Marko or anyone – does anyone have the sale/for sale price for units in that new Ten Mile Point four plex called “Covecrest”? Thank you.
Speaking of missing middle looks like these are now finished -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29294592/b-786-st-patrick-st-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
I am sure the developer’s hands were likely tied with regulations/stakeholders but it would have been nicer to place the hydro meters and gas meters not facing the street in South Oak Bay.
If no parking, no private yard, average neighborhood without views then it will be a tough sell. I can see those mcbriar units going sub one million given the comps at 4253 Dieppe.
A viable market for missing‑middle housing still hasn’t fully emerged. To get there, we need a few early projects that lease or sell quickly enough to demonstrate real, bankable demand. We also need land prices to recalibrate to small‑scale formats, along with far greater predictability in construction costs, approvals, and timelines.
Missing‑middle housing is not inexpensive to produce. Per‑unit construction costs often exceed those of mid‑rise or high‑rise buildings because identical soft costs, code requirements, and servicing obligations are spread across far fewer units. That naturally creates sticker shock for prospective buyers. But as more projects reach the market and sales patterns stabilize, public confidence in both the pricing and the product will grow.
The real inflection point arrives when buyers stop viewing missing‑middle housing as experimental and begin seeing it as a normal, legitimate part of the housing landscape.
We’re moving in that direction, but these shifts are gradual. Markets like this don’t appear overnight—they take shape slowly as evidence accumulates and early successes become repeatable patterns.
You mean mom and pops don’t use IRR. I can tell you on the institutional side IRR is often used to predicate an exit on an investment. You make your return and move on to the next opportunity instead of trying to hit home runs every time. Discipline is what wins in the long run, those trying to hit home runs often get in trouble when the market turns like some of those mid sized Vancouver/Toronto developers.
Given there’s no market for these at the current listed prices, a savvy developer should want to be the first one to move these given the current state of the RE market.
I can’t see many of them losing money, but I can definitely see having to adjust prices to the point where profit margin is thin enough where they don’t start subsequent missing middle projects.
In real life there isn’t an IRR approach, that is something you learn in a business class. In real life you build for as cheap as you can and you sell for whatever the market will absorb and right now everyone is trying to figure out where the market is at for such product.
In terms of value, sure compared to an older SFH. Problem is we are comparing apples to oranges. Everyone on Save Our Saanich FB page is freaking out about various mutli-plexes noting asking price is $1.1. If you take the multi-plex on Doncaster and let’s say the price is $1.1 for a 3-4 bed on the same block a brand new SFH sold for $2,550,000+GST and with no suite and 4 beds. Realistically, both the townhome multi-plex and SFH can and will house the same amount of people (I wouldn’t be surprised if on average more people living in the new multi-plex units vs brand new SFHs).
Everything I’ve seen is tricky to price thought. I saw some really nice multi-plex townhomes in Saanich for 900k last weekend, but no garage which is unique.
We will see price cuts in the spring as a lot of these projects obtain occupancy permits.
I am guessing these mom and pop builders aren’t taking a IRR approach when it comes to pricing then. Will be interesting to see what happens when some of them accepts reality. Don’t see any value paying the same price for a missing middle compared to a SFH.
Not much, but builders are swinging for the fences with the pricing. One I know the numbers on is $320k profit per unit at asking price. It will take some time for the market to find itself.
any of the missing middle products moving yet? I see the one on mcbriar is still holding out for 1.1, not sure if they sold the other units or not.
This month’s single‑family home sales show the following distribution:
-Victoria Core: 47 sales, ranging from $734,000 to $3,100,000
-Western Communities: 25 sales, ranging from $686,000 to $1,680,000
-Saanich Peninsula: 18 sales, ranging from $705,000 to $4,100,000
The price spread within each area is substantial relative to the small number of transactions. That level of variability makes direct comparisons between regions unreliable and increases the margin of error in any month‑to‑month interpretation.
This is precisely the context in which a rigorously constructed Housing Price Index proves most valuable. When the underlying methodology is executed correctly, it provides a clearer and more reliable indication of market trends than raw price measures. The HPI is subject to revision as additional data becomes available, allowing the index to be recalibrated for greater accuracy over time.
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 245 422
New Listings 918 1,172
Active Listing 2,569 2,396
Slow start to 2026. If we squeek out 120 sales this week we are sitting at 365 for the month.
Where would you want to live in Canada?
https://youtube.com/shorts/a9vDa3zYqro?si=KZErrFlgDLefbTr_
Like the time I caught the ferry to Shelbyville? I needed a new heel for m’shoe. So I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on ’em. “Gimme five bees for a quarter,” you’d say. Now where were we? Oh, yeah. The important thing was that I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn’t have any white onions, because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones…
And that’s why HHV is going to shit.
what about getting rid of the ALR? In what future scenario will it be more important to locally grown food rather than build SFH that increase the number of children that women choose to have?
Not much in the news today beyond Trump’s latest executive order — a performative swipe at large institutional investors that pretends to address the housing crisis but won’t move the needle. It’s political theatre, nothing more.
Carney’s speech is carrying most of the oxygen anyway. And while that plays out, Alberta’s right‑wing fringe is once again daydreaming about its own country.
Lol no one reads his imaginary b.s. anyways. Can’t think of a single useful/rational comment or insight from him.
Pot to the kettle…
Please read your comments prior to posting. Many are incoherent. This applies to everyone.
https://www.cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/01/22/warning-of-100000-jobs-that-could-be-lost-unless-the-market-turns-around/
Dark days in the Big Suck aka Toronto. As home to the ridings that put governments in power in Canada, I imagine there will lots of new stupid national policies to sell they are trying to fix it.
But he doesn’t want Americans buying foreign stuff.
Texas also has high property taxes, which of course are a cost of ownership. Note taxes cover services which would be partially financed at the provincial level in BC. Texas has no state income tax.
let’s just hope nobody points out this foreign buyer ban to Trump
That’s a good question MJ. I suppose it’s mostly political.
It’s broadly popular, low‑cost to administer, and aligned with public sentiment would read as capitulation to industry interests rather than a response to resident needs. Even if the ban’s direct impact is modest, its removal would be interpreted as indifference.
Last year we had between 4 to 6.6 months of condo inventory in greater Victoria which most people would call balanced.
See what happens this year. If we stay above six months that might change people’s views.
If you’re living in Canada, earning in Canada and that is how housing works why do we have a foreign buyer ban? I guess you could completely ignore purchasing power if there was no foreign investment, etc.
Rents have come down a bit. A unit at 515 Chatham is now advertised on Craigslist at $1,500 a month.
I am not bringing exchange into the discussion. $800k USD for a 1400 sqft house in Compton LA, you can decide for yourself how that compares to prices here.
Uhhh price is all about the address/location. I just listed some of the reasons why certain addresses/locations are diserable and command a premium.
When you bring currency exchange into the discussion, you’re changing the housing argument entirely. If you’re living in the States, you’re earning in the States—people aren’t commuting across borders for their paycheque. The market dynamics are domestic, not foreign‑exchange driven. Smaller real estate markets like Victoria are shaped overwhelmingly by local buyers, not by the occasional oil sheikh from Qatar.
People in Victoria dig deep to buy a home, and many first‑time buyers end up digging into their parents’ pockets as well. I was previously going to write about the transfer of intergenerational wealth, but that topic never seems to land well on this blog.
VicReAnalyst, did you just walk back your earlier claim? Because it sure sounds like you’ve shifted from ‘price is all about the address’ to acknowledging the dozens of other factors that actually move a market.
You get mixed reactions because your takes and calls are mostly horrible. A good example would be your “RE currently don’t make sense for investors” call from yesterday.
Issue is that in any location the big draw are the big cities and in Texas you can develop/build be in whatever direction of the said city and the topography/geography doesn’t prohibit development so there is a lot more supply combined with less demand. Coastal cities are different, on the west coast you obviously can’t build west of it, going north or south you are often met with mountainous and challenging terrain (diserable coastal cities are already located on the best part on the coast), so you have to build east (provided you have decent topography and geography)that extends the commute considerably.
Or simply “supply and demand”
I agree with the nurse comparison, but I doubt an RN earning north of 141K is aiming for a condo. That would have been achievable at roughly half her/his/they current salary.
Yes you can compare Victoria with Vancouver or Nanaimo or Surrey or even Sooke. I’ve done this often on this blog. But I get mixed reactions.
Victoria residents often like being compared “up” to Vancouver because it flatters the self‑image: cultured, coastal, expensive, desirable. Compare Victoria “down” to Nanaimo or Sooke and suddenly you’re not discussing data; you’re poking at someone’s sense of status. People want to believe their city is both unique and superior, and any comparison that threatens that narrative feels like an affront.
Once you’re invested in a place, your identity becomes territorial. I’m not immune to it. When I first moved here from Balmoral Avenue in Shaughnessy, I thought most of Oak Bay was a complete write‑off. Houses I assumed were better suited to demolition. But investment changes perception. Once you belong to a community, the same houses you dismissed become “character homes,” and the flaws you once catalogued turn into features you now defend.
Has anyone been to parts of Texas where you see those mansions for 500k? What’s the issue? There has to be a reason Compton is 800k for a dump while you get a mansion in parts of Texas for 500k.
Personally my favourite metric when visiting other parts of the world is what is the salary of a nurse/teacher/[insert other staple professional] and what’s the price of a 1,000 sq.ft. condo there. For the most part on that metric Victoria is cheaper than a lot of desirable places around the world.
For example in Zagreb a RN makes around 1,400 euors per month and a decent condo is north of 500k euros (850k cnd).
The other day a nurse on Reddit Victoria posted he or she made 141k last year working less than full time hours and you can buy a decent condo these days for 600k.
I’ve posted this before, but here’s a 1400 sqft house in Compton for 800k USD. Lol I think you get better value in the burnside tillicum neighborhood here….
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/208-S-Burris-Ave-Compton-CA-90221/21014275_zpid/?utm_campaign=zillowwebmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
I really think you’re exaggerating these effects. For as long as I’ve been on this blog & the other one before it, and that Ozzie Jurock one before that, people have been making this argument, oh you can’t possibly compare Vancouver or Victoria with [fill in the coastal city blank] because of the reasons you state. I think the argument sort of misses the point, as prices keep rising beyond local incomes (yes, subject to “time outs”).
I’m retired. When we travel, I often look up local real estate in places that appeal to us, mostly just for fun. Most recently Australia, but also pretty much everywhere down the west coast. And almost all the desirable places in the world are as expensive or significantly more expensive than little old Victoria. And no, you can’t directly equate all those markets, but the part that translates is the fact that Victoria is not just a local market, but also increasingly just one of those places that people go to just because truly desirable places are kind of few & far between & being chased by more and more of the money that’s sloshing around the world. Fewer international jet-setters here for sure, but even just within the overall Canadian buyer pool, that phenomenon is just going to keep on going, unfortunately for the locals who are not in the market.
In the category of desirable places to live in the world, Victoria is still relatively “cheap”. Cold comfort if you’re a local trying to get in, I realize.
That’s not a valid comparison.
It’s like equating Tsawwassen with Point Roberts or White Rock with Blaine—communities that may straddle the same border but bear no resemblance in pricing, demand, or market dynamics. It’s a clever sound bite for the golf course, but it doesn’t survive even basic scrutiny. Your argument leans on a geographic rhyme instead of the actual drivers of value: zoning, amenities, labour markets, tax structures, school catchments, transportation links, and the size and psychology of the buyer pool. Once you look at those, the comparison collapses on contact.
The premise that everyone wants to live in the same spot is obviously false. People don’t converge on a single location; they diverge—urban to suburban, suburban to rural, coastal to inland, and back again—depending on life stage, values, and constraints. And of course your comment wasn’t meant to imply that eight billion people are all trying to squeeze into one city. I understand it as hyperbole. The problem is that some people, as Walter demonstrated earlier, take that kind of shorthand literally, and the whole discussion gets sidetracked into debating an exaggeration instead of the actual issue. I don’t, for example, imagine Walter is currently booking flights to Zagreb for his goats and chickens.
Especially when you factor in current exchange.
Look at any diserable coastal city in the west coast of the u.s. prices aren’t any cheaper.
There isn’t enough drug money in a country of 3.9 million people. Way more money from tourism, EU buyers, diaspora, etc.
Russia maybe in Beograd as Serbia is friendly with Russia, Croatia not so much.
My personal take on it is everyone wants to live in the same spot which is far more proununced than in Canada which is more like Vancouver to Edmonton type distance. If you have a successful hotel or tourism based business in Dubrovnik you want to buy your kid(s) a condo in the center of Zagreb so they can tram to their university. For the same price 45 minutes outside of Zagreb you can buy three solid SFHs, but people don’t want to be 45 min away. It would be like a house in Sooke being $200,000.
Just made a video on this topic two days ago. A condo recently sold downtown that is cash flow positive by approx $75/month (20% down, 3.94% 25 yr mortgage) -> https://youtu.be/I5qQ3A8bF-M?si=QZypy8pmpN_cc8px
Here’s one possible explanation for irrational housing prices- drug money. They have to put those billions of dollars into something. Maybe countries like Croatia turn a blind eye to the source of the cash rolling in. Most likely from Russia.
I really don’t know how you are so bad at assessing the market! The math to cash flow neutral with 20% down is actually just beginning to work now.
I really want to root for you but you just make it so so hard…. sigh
The price‑to‑rental income ratio now seems to have settled into a narrow band around 19 to 21. At roughly $2,050 a month, you’re looking at a modest two‑bedroom—perhaps 700 square feet—so about $3 per square foot rent. For an older condo like the one shown, the ratio would fall toward the lower end, around 19, which puts market value near $465,000, give or take 5–10%.
For an investor, with 20% down, the math simply doesn’t support the purchase. That down payment works harder almost anywhere else—gold, silver, REITs, short‑duration bonds, whatever suits the investor’s temperament. Condominiums only made sense for an investor when they were appreciating at 10% or more; the leverage did the heavy lifting.
And that’s the real structural change. Investors are no longer confined to real estate by default. They have a wide field of liquid, diversified alternatives competing for their capital. The monopoly that property once held over the average investor’s imagination has somewhat dissolved, and the pricing now reflects a world where real estate is just one asset class among many, not the unquestioned first choice.
For an end user it’s a different story they want to stop paying rent and build equity through mortgage paydown.
For condos we have a bifurcated market as investors take a step back and end-users move forward.
Canada has 2nd lowest house prices of the seven G7 countries -only USA is lower. This is measured by price/income ratio. Canada is 7.5. Others are higher (France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan).
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp
Including all countries, Canada is 17th lowest out of 112 countries.
I’ve fallen for this trap many times and I’ve just given up on trying to use logic to predict markets. Three years ago I made a video in Zagreb where I noted that the market had to come crashing down as prices exploded to a price-to-income ratio of 11 to 12 for a 800 sq.ft. condo. Video is in Croatian but you can see here my caption at the bottom noting the 11 to 12x ratio -> https://youtu.be/Und6Hla44Dw?si=94kHQ24FJfiuhfIx&t=137
The development I am walking past in the video I predicted prices could drop 10 to 40%…..what happened? Prices went up 50% instead so who knows what the price to income ratio is now, close to 20x, for a condo. Now whenever I make a new video on the market in Zagreb the comments are “aren’t you the idiot that predicted a correction.”
I’ve travel quite a bit in my life and whenever I visit a city that I see myself living in it is usually very expensive.
Downward rent price pressures continue -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1qj49q1/2_bedroom_rent_prices_finally_coming_down_we_need/
Markets celebrating a Greenlandic TACO today.
Would you like some guacamole with your seal blubber?
And of course Trump can celebrate another war he has ended. His incredible peace-making skills staved off the invasion of Greenland.
I just want to share with this blog that we just purchased our first home in Canada! We are very happy about this accomplishment, and this community previously shared some tips that really helped to guide us.
Now let’s pay this mortgage!
You need to look at other diserable cities out here on the westcoast, all of them are expensive, this is a supply and demand reality that perma-bears fail to grasp.
Median house-to-income ratios. Not really a good metric. But it sells in the media. You still find the media trot this out.
Prairie Boy was the fellow that started this blog and who Leo took it over from. I can count on my hands and feet how many times I’ve posted on here so it stands to reason you have no idea who I am. My point was that this blog, and other resources like it, can and do have a material impact on how reader’s perceive the world. The tone of this blog 15 years ago post GFC was quite bearish – certainly much more than it is today.
The residential housing market here doesn’t make sense to me today in much the same way it didn’t in 2005 – namely that prices are far removed from the incomes needed to support them. I’ve since come to reconcile that fact with how household income generation has changed since I was a kid along with the low cost of capital. Perhaps it’s because I’ve seen my non-real property capital grow so much over the past 25ish years when I started investing in the public financial markets.
It is, from a non-financial perspective, but when we’re feeding the animals on our farm I can’t help but run the numbers in my head and be dumbfounded as to how a bunch of goats and chickens can cost us millions.
At least you eventually bought and now life is good 🙂
Walter, never heard of you or Prairie Boy. A lot has happened in the last two decades. Hope you finally did buy a home. But I’m curious why you “still don’t for a large part” think it makes sense?
I’ve been following this blog since the beginning. Back when Prairie Boy was questioning the economics, Marko was cosplaying as a young female nurse and you were Just Jack. I could have bought in 2005 but didn’t for over a decade because things didn’t make sense to me (they still don’t for a large part) and the reinforcing bias I read here played a part in my decision making.
There was no correction, sorry. There was a reaction that was over almost as soon as it started. I know it hurts to know that you could’ve been mortgage free with a house by now had you not been so stubborn about a housing crash, so don’t make the same mistake going forward ;). But until then excuse the rest of us for not taking you seriously in the endless market related b.s. you post here.
BC did try a two-year cycle – once. The longer the cycle, the more the system drifts from real evidence toward theoretical modelling—and the harder it becomes for ordinary owners to challenge their assessments.
Take a simple example: you buy a new house this year, but the base year is two years in the past. The assessment isn’t based on what the unit is worth today. Instead, it must be set to what the property would have been worth two years ago—at a time when the building didn’t exist, the land may have been different, and the market conditions may be nothing like they are now.
It can be done, but it would be necessary to put on seminars for the public to attend. I think most of the public would find it difficult to statistically determine the correct appropriate rates to mark up and mark down house prices to a base year. The assessment authority with the data, staff, and statistical machinery would have a unfair advantage over a home owner.
And as a side note. With the increased use of AI, this is going to work gainst the average home owner. People will find it impossible to fight an algorithim when they don’t know how it was constructed.
2008 felt like a pretty crappy time to buy. I know. Because that’s when we bought. Worked out well, but felt like the world was going to hell in a hand basket at the time
An easy saving to make would be to move the property assessment system to a less frequent basis. Many other jurisdictions assess on a less frequent basis. Do most assessments every three years and you could cut BC Assessment in half
can you share the waterfront link lol
It’s impressive, in its own strange way, how much time some people pour into anonymous bloggers. I’m not wired for that. I couldn’t tell you what someone posted a month ago, and I care even less.
As for calling the bottom of a market—no one actually knows. There are too many moving parts, and while this cycle rhymes with past peaks and troughs, nothing ever repeats cleanly enough to pretend there’s a formula.
There are patterns, sure, but they’re never clean enough to treat as certainty.
Except you were the one calling for the crash and the one waiting to time the bottom to buy, a bottom that never came.
So yes, there was a correction. That much is clear. What I can’t tell you is how deep it ran or how long it lasted in Victoria. Canada’s banking system is something of a unicorn—six major banks, the CMHC backstop, and far less exposure to the sub‑prime chaos that hit the U.S. But even with those structural advantages, we still had to move aggressively on interest rates and other liquidity measures to blunt the global credit crunch. And none of that was guaranteed to work. In the moment, it was anything but obvious that those measures would be enough.
Hindsight is a luxury. When you’re in it up to your armpits, clarity is the one thing you don’t have. And I doubt many people were delaying their buying decisions because of comments on this insignificant blog. Most people buy when it makes sense for their own lives, not because of what’s posted here.
The same applies today. I wouldn’t tell anyone not to buy. In fact, I’m seeing some potentially solid long‑term opportunities—waterfront in the Gulf Islands comes to mind. Maybe eighteen years from now you’ll be saying, “If you’d listened to Groot and bought Gulf Island water front, you would have lost XXX.”
I recall it was a 10% drop and recovered within 6 months to a year at most and then just pretty much flat until mid 2014 when interest rates in Canada dropped in response to the oil collapse due to increased OPEC output in an attempt to bankrupt shape oil in the states.
If you banked on a housing crash during that time period you literally F’d yourself to a point where you are unlikely to recover from in this lifetime.
well probably slowed the growth for a while. Maybe a 10% drop, but very moderate gains for at least 5 years. was I think 2014 ish when things picked back up again.
And how much did that impact Victoria? Lol 10% round trip at most within 6 months?
No, it was the global housing recession.
Houses were almost 1/3 of the price compared to now. Could have picked up something in oakbay for little over 550k and it would be worth close to 1.5M now. Best part is that the mortgage likely would have been paid off now too 🙂 Reality hurts eh?
18 years of trolling – WOW! That would have been 2008. What happened in 2008?
One can hope, would love to pick up a BYD Surf for my parents in the next 12 months.
Follow up email from BC Assessments on a couple of other items I brought up.
Two of my units have no parking and are $60k (value of parking) over assessed both with 2025 comparable sales in the same building (without parking) but over the phone yesterday I was told by BC Assessments that they will not adjust for parking spot, or not. I sent a follow up email asking for this in writing
BC Assessments “I don’t have any official documentation that shows that we no longer capture value in relation to parking spots.”
Next one I own a unit that has an assessment $53,000 higher than a superior unit that is currently listed for sale and has been at that asking price for months without a successful sale.
BC Assessments “In regards to the unit that you mention which is currently for sale and has been on the market for 105 days, we would not make any changes to an assessed value based on that. We need to use market data of actual sales and not predictions.”
So after 105 days on market it will sell for 53k over asking price?
Why are they encouraging people to phone in when it is a complete waste of time? AI would do a much better job. Not to mention our taxes are going towards funding this.
The property’s condition was the key factor supporting a reduction. That was exactly the issue with the Howard Street address. After years as a rental, it had clearly been neglected, and the physical condition no longer matched the assessor’s model assumptions. I documented the appraisal thoroughly and included extensive interior and exterior photos. The evidence made the case for a lower assessment on its own terms. At that point, the assessor’s role was simply to verify that what I provided was reasonable, credible, and consistent with the actual state of the property.
You don’t need an appraisal to appeal your assessment. In most cases, I tell people that paying for a full appraisal doesn’t make financial sense—the fee will usually exceed whatever tax savings they might gain from a successful appeal.
For the Howard property, the owner was an agent, and he felt the appeal would carry more weight if it came from an independent, unbiased source rather than from him directly.
What about calling for the housing market to collapse for 18 years only to see the actual market close to triple during that time frame?
I had an assessment lowered by 15% in 2023 without having to appeal. I just sent an email in and corresponded directly with the assessor. So it can happen, but I had fairly compelling facts as the building was under remediation.
Claims without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. Assessment appeals work the same way, though many people struggle with that idea.
I see it regularly: a homeowner insists that an “identical” house up the street sold for a certain price. That’s the claim. Once the sale is examined, it almost always turns out the properties aren’t identical at all. The evidence simply doesn’t support what they’re asserting.
And the irony is that the louder someone gets—stacking claim on top of claim—the weaker their position becomes. Volume doesn’t substitute for proof. In fact, it usually signals the absence of it.
.>.>> German BYD pricing…multiply by 1.62 for currency
Chinese EV imported to Germany has ~50% in taxes added before sale… 10% tariffs+17% anti-subsidy duty+ 19% VAT
One family member had the experience of an assessment dispute resolved without appeal. My experience has always been having to appeal.
Probably they triage a few cases that will make them look stupid if they go to appeal.
Retailers employ various pricing strategies and price to market. Rolex watches are different prices all over the world after adjusting for currency. What you are missing is that Chinese auto manufacturers have enormous government subsidies to help them and that applies to various sectors in the Chinese economy that are deemed of strategic importance. My take is that the Chinese will almost certainly price those cars allocated to under 35k very aggressively.
I call b.s. on this story.
When you do and then they decide if it’s significant enough or not for them to reassess, if not then you have to go through the formal appeal. I have never successfully got them to reassess anything without appeal and the delta between what I thought the value was and what they thought were upwards of 10% .
I’ve actually had the opposite experience. Years ago a client felt they were over‑assessed on a property along Howard Street and asked me to appraise it. The assessor went out to inspect, then called me directly to say he agreed with my description of the condition. BC Assessment ended up lowering the value to match the appraisal.
It is dumb. This is the same attitude I encountered from them multiple times years ago when I bothered contesting these things. The front-line people seem to care mostly about low-hanging fruit like making sure the assessments have the correct info on your house/condo unit. Their marching orders from higher up may be not to engage in market value discussions and have you go appeal instead, as that process will probably cut out about 80% of people. I agree with VicRE, you pretty much have to appeal.
Yes, should be plenty of Chinese EV < $35k cad. For example, the BYD Seagull EV is $25k Australian (=$23k CAD).
https://youtu.be/zRtxojM0mog?si=zV6_ZnCtQIaZ3ezo
Which is fine, but they “encourage” people to contact them before going to complaint -> https://info.bcassessment.ca/Services-products/appeals
The reason I got this email today is that individual had to talk to her manager about a couple of my properties including the identical sale one. So an hour on the phone plus that person wasting her manager’s times and writing a non-sense email that an identical sale is “market opinion.”
What is the point of that person’s job/position other to waste time?
They certainly won’t need 24,500 Model 3s, but they can fill that 24,500 with Model Ys. My personal 2023 Model Y is from the China factory.
German BYD pricing…multiply by 1.62 for currency
Key BYD Models & Starting Prices (approximate):
BYD Dolphin: Around €35,690 for the standard version with a 60.5 kWh battery.
BYD Atto 3 (C-SUV): Starting pre-sale around €38,000, with potential price cuts bringing it closer to €41,000 or even lower in some offers.
BYD Seal U DM-i (Plug-in Hybrid SUV): Around €39,990 for the Boost version.
BYD Seal (Sedan): Priced from around €42,990 for the Touring Boost (Plug-in Hybrid).
BYD Tang & Han: Higher-end models with pre-sale prices around €72,000 (reference prices).
At least I get free car washes and vacuumes lol
I agree
They won’t do anything unless there is an actual error, an appeal is the only way forward where both you and bc assessment present your case in front of an independent panel.
What good is 35k if Chinese EVs are 20k?
Last year when I appealed one of my properties the BC Assessments appraiser was using comparables more than 3 years old (from the peak of the market). Lucikly the people on the panel had a bit more common sense and lower the assessment $400,000.
Spent an hour on the phone with BC Assessments yesterday regarding a few properties and got absolutely no where, then a follow up email this morning…admits the sale in question ($85,000 lower than my assessment) is identical, but says it’s market opinion? 🙂
I don’t know what the point of paying people to answer callls all day is if there is zero logic and reasoning being applied.
“Good Morning Marko,
I am just touching base with you after our conversation yesterday regarding your unit located at xxxxxxx, Victoria BC. As we discussed, unit xxxx [same building] sold is an identical unit to yours. While I can certainly appreciate your view that your unit should be assessed similar to the sale price as they are identical, we cannot make changes based on market opinion. If your unit itself had sold, that would be something we would consider.
I hope that this helps with your review. As a reminder you do have the option to appeal this assessment and the deadline to do so is end of day February 2, 2026.
Warm Regards,
xxxxxx (She/Her)
Looks like the China EV agreement also includes a provision that transport Canada agrees to fast-track certify (CMVSS ) new Chinese EVs within 8 weeks.
https://www.autonews.com/ev/ane-canada-evs-china-tariffs-tesla-volvo-0119/#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20deal,change%20is%20a%20positive%20step.
“ As part of the deal, Transport Canada will certify new Chinese EVs within just eight weeks, according to a government official with knowledge of the agreement”
——===—-====
Here’s a snapshot of current Australian EV sales for month of December 2025. As you can see, BYD leads in total sales with 5 of the top 10 cars and the BYD Sealion 7 being the top seller beating Tesla Model Y. I’d expect most of those BYD models to be fast-track certified within 8 weeks of application.
The best-selling EVs in Australia in December 2025 were:
BYD Sealion 7 – 2,546 sales
Tesla Model Y – 1,998 sales
Tesla Model 3 – 587 sales
BYD Atto 2 – 531 sales
BYD Seal – 413 sales
Zeekr 7X – 293 sales
BYD Atto 3 – 270 sales
BYD Dolphin – 265 sales
Kia EV5 – 246 sales
Toyota bZ4X – 183 sales
From that list, you can see what a small player the Tesla Model 3 is for EV sales in Australia. 587 sales for a month and that’s only 8% of EV sales. I wouldn’t expect Tesla Canada to be ordering huge numbers of Chinese Model 3 for Canada. I expect most Chinese EV imports to be non-Tesla within a year.
Your body shop would suffer, any minor damage and they’re immediately written off. What a waste.
I don’t know how profitable a Tesla dealership would be – service would struggle. After driving my Model S almost 300,000 km with very few issues just crossed 65,000 km with my 2023 Model Y and to date the only thing I’ve done is added wiper fluid. Still on the original tires and not a single issue.
I service my parents’ ICEs for them so they don’t get scammed and defintively getting them an EV in the next year or so. Just the price of oil changes these days is insane. Not to mention time wasted on servicing.
Discussion we are having here is not whether Tesla can compete on price, but can they deliver the Model 3 at $34,995 (for purposes of current tarrif deal) and my argument is if they are already selling a SUV from Berlin at $49,900 they aren’t far off on making the numbers work for a China built sedan.
Another way of looking at it right now the Model 3 in Croatia is around 25,900e and even with the very weak CND dollar (CND is the lowest compared to the Euro in a decade plus) that comes out to less than $42,000 CND. On top of that they have the software lock on the battery trick they’ve used before to further come in lower on the price.
As far as BYD my uncle bought a Seal last year and I had a chance to drive it. Great car, but far from cheap in Europe. Based on prices in Europe the only car I really see BYD bringing under 35k is the Surf. The Surf is a great car -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjPxv4jd89E but the problem is the CND market isn’t into compact cars (Toyota doesn’t sell any models smaller than the Yaris including the Yaris, Honda doesn’t sell the Fit, etc).
Will there be a BYD dealership in Victoria in 10 years, probably, but currently Tesla benefits the most from this annoucement which is inconvenient for the CND government in terms of optics. They cut a deal with China, further putting a nail in the coffin for the Ontario auto sector, which benefits Tesla/Elon the most at the moment.
Now we will be getting Model 3s from China instead of the US, from the same company 🙂
They can’t compete on price point in China with their cheapest Chinese built model 3s versus the domestic brands. So not sure how they will accomplish that all of a sudden in Canada.
Marko- You should open a Tesla dealership.
https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/modely/design#overview
What do you think the difference in production cost is between the $49.9k and the $74.9k Model Y? Probably less than 10k, if that, likely closer to 5 to 7k. Do they want to sell the 49.9k Model Y including shipping it from Berlin to Halifax and than railing it from Halifax to Vancouver then transporting it to the island, probably not but they have production capacity and clearly a margin at $49.9k on a larger car built in Germany. I am sure they would prefer to sell all the Ys at $74.9k trim level where the margin is multiples higher.
Tesla is artifically creating these lower price point model trims to capture more marketshare. The 49.9k Model Y has a glass roof like all the other trims but they cover it so you can’t see through it so they are purposely making the car crappier (even thought for that component production cost is higher as they have to cover it to make it crappier). So in that component scenario they are purposely making a car crappier, at a higher production cost, so they can sell it for less while avoiding errosion of sales on the higher trims.
Tesla doesn’t need more than 24,500 Model 3s/year right now from China but if they did need more than 24,500/year a $34,995 software locked battery would not shock me as they’ve done that sort of thing before to hit certain price points and if the Berlin Y is already down to $49,900 they aren’t too far off numbers wise on the China Model 3.
You have to consider a bunch of other factors such as FSD now going to a subscription model, supercharger networking making a ton of $, etc., so even if they were to sell a car at cost with any excess production availability they are still ahead.
I’d expect some byd’s to trickle in during 1H 2026. Both above and below $35,000 cad. Likely will partner with an existing dealership in Quebec, BC and Ontario. These will mainly be demos and small number of sales but provide a presence for people to test drive and place orders. Then numbers will ramp up in 2H 2026 into 2027. In Australia, BYD alone now outsells Tesla. Because they have cars in the $28k cad range. They can bring cars in to demo and sell in small numbers without CMVSS certification – using the CBC (case-by-case) method which only takes a few weeks.
Here’s what Elon Musk said about this issue in a 2024 conference call “ if there were no trade barriers, Chinese electric-vehicle companies would “pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”
You do understand that Tesla does not want to sell model 3s in Canada for 35k right?
No country has saved the environment by making itself poor. The problem with last 2 decades of implementing policy based on blindly accepting advocacy based on dogma from zealots is that it hijacked anything presented as environmental policy as a way put in place command economy mechanisms that have been proven failures for 200 years.
It took the media a couple of days to use some common sense but here it is -> https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-poised-be-early-winner-canada-opens-door-chinese-made-evs-2026-01-19/
Obviously Carney/Government wasn’t going to bring this up at the time of signing the deal.
I wouldn’t 100% rule out Tesla not bringing a stripped down version of the Model 3 @ $34,995 at some point in the future with a software locked battery. You can get Berlin built Model Y (bigger car) in Victoria for $49,900 so given production probably cheaper in China and easier logistics and a smaller car they can’t be too far off $34,995 + $5,000 to unlock the battery.
They’ve done this trick before -> https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/mosox9/if_i_buy_the_151km_model_3_can_i_upgrade_the/
Looks like we are at neutral rates for now, so let’s see who can afford to buy with mortgages between 3.5% to 4%.
All of Canada can go back to living as caveman and it still wouldn’t make any difference to the global environment.
Tesla doesn’t need more than 1/2 the quota as they are shipping the Ys from Berlin and 24,500 Model 3s is plenty for the CND market. I wouldn’t be surpised if they had room left over for Model Ys so they don’t have to ship them from Halifax (coming from Berlin) to Vancouver.
As for the other manufactures in the short term, where is BYD going to sell their sub $35,000 CAD cars from? The shipping port in Vancouver? Has a sub $35,000 model been CMVSS certified under the Motor Vehicle Safety Act. Total non-sense if you think you’ll be able to buy a BYD this spring.
As I said in my previous post this is an immediate benefit to Tesla. They aren’t producing Model 3s in Berlin so this is really good news for them. Expect a huge price drop on the Model 3 in the coming weeks, probably 30k down to $44,900 or lower.
Hey guys I would like to advocate for giving frucks about the environment. Making money and giving frucks are not as mutually exclusive as is Thursty’s attitude and intelligence.
Be interesting to see how the other manufactures respond.
Regarding the import of China EV to Canada. 24,500 cars (half of the total) are reserved for cars under $35,000 cad retail. Which means they won’t be Teslas, as cheapest Tesla model is $50k+. Unless Tesla slashes prices below $35k, we should be seeing lots of byd and other China evs
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-poised-be-early-winner-canada-opens-door-chinese-made-evs-2026-01-19/
“However, under one clause in the agreement, half of the quota will be reserved for vehicles under 35,000 CAD (usd $25,189). Tesla model prices are all above that number.”
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 155 422
New Listings 600 1,172
Active Listings 2,468 2,396
Running a bit behind last year in terms of sales.
In order to make money you have to have a marketable skill and be willing to bust your ass. Not many people meet those qualifications.
Marko, agree never a better time to make money . So much opportunity out there just get out there and hustle . Money is cheap right now and easy to beat the dot
It’s a possible to get lower rates with lower LTV, especially for self employed incomes.
Now imagine if that nurse has a partner making just 80k, they would be in the market for a decent SFH in the core.
Lots of interesting topics on Reddit these days -> https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/1qfz8l2/is_it_better_to_put_20_down_or_15_down_and_pay/
I’ve had a number of clients in recent years opt for CMHC even thought they had 20% down for various reasons including lower interest rates (for the entire lenght of the 25 year mortgage).
From a Victoria reddit thread yesterday…goes back to my point while things a tough still plenty of opportunity out if you are will to apply yourself a bit out of highschool. Income below gets you into a brand new townhome as a single person -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29232442/73-368-tradewinds-ave-colwood-royal-bay (not GST for first time buyers, no PTT).
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1qfmjhm/us_rn_14_yrs_experience_considering_a_move_to/
“HOW TO TRIGGER A TROLL”
-Just Jack
These people permanently belong in the kitchen.
To all those calling for a housing ponzi crash in Victoria, here is how much a 1000 sqft SFH costs in Compton… Make your own decision if Victoria is over valued or not.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1317-W-School-St-Compton-CA-90220/20996392_zpid/?utm_campaign=androidappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
BYD already outsells Tesla in Australia, since joining the market there in 2022.
With the new tariff changes, BYD EV cars from China expected to arrive to Canada as early as “a matter of weeks’…
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-evs-coming-canada-soon-021129924.html
“ But with Canada rolling out the welcome mat, those companies could move fast.
Chinese EV makers can ramp production and ship quickly, and BYD even operates its own cargo ships that could further shorten transit times,” he said in an email to CBC News. Lashitew says he wouldn’t be surprised if new Chinese EVs arrived as early as March or April.
BYD has opened dozens of dealerships around Australia since entering its market in mid-2022 — and had sold more than 52,000 vehicles there by the start of this year. But vehicles could arrive at Canadian ports in a matter of weeks, says Addisu Lashitew, an associate professor at McMaster University’s DeGroote School of Business.”
The only thing this does in reality in the near term is it allows Tesla to sell the Model 3 in Canada from the Shanghai factory. Who know they might start shipping the Model Y from Shanghai instead of Berlin now as well.
I noticed a few hours after this was announced they took down the order page for the Model 3 so they must be trying to figure out Model 3 pricing as we speak given this announcement.
Given the cheapest Model Y from Berlin is now $49,900 in Canada wouldn’t be surprised if the 3 now started at $44,900 (currently over 80k due to tarrifs and they don’t produce the Model 3 in Berlin).
If you were hoping for a BYD dealership in Victoria not anytime soon.
Peter, ya carney is the right guy for the times, we do need to be playing both the U.S and China. This is all business and we shouldn’t give a fruck about the environment or social justice or any of that other gibberish at this time . Let’s get out there and make money . The lefty’s need they’re check at the beginning of the month
Canadians don’t have to buy Chinese vehicles. It’s that simple.
I think China has shown that any deal will ultimately involve them throwing their weight around uncomfortably. But so has the US now. And so I agree this was worth doing, especially as it seems likely the Canadian auto industry will not survive in its present form anyways and we’re more likely maybe to become a parts supplier to the US (not sure). But what I really like is how Carney implements this, ie pretty limited (initial) access to our market for a pretty good reduction in the Canola tariffs – well done. And maybe this is too much of a wild guess, but if the CUSMA renegotiation has Trump forcing us to choose between US trade and dealing with China, then perhaps this China deal is just bite-sized enough that Carney could choose to trade it off for CUSMA without losing too much. So creating a bargaining chip?
I don’t know. But either way I think it’s reasonably smart, notwithstanding Ford’s bloviating.
Didn’t vote Liberal, but I like Carney’s actions, which are about a 180 degree from his earlier virtue-signalling (and which was why I didn’t vote Liberal). Smart guy at the helm finally, what a relief.
If that was meant to land, it didn’t.
Guy is a certified idiot, look at any decent coastal city in the west coast of the USA and see what the prices are. Lol if you do find one with a low price go check out the property taxes.
After researching the essay, I could conclude it is not like a ponzi scheme and I already have the thought of a metaphor to use due to the atmospheric rivers and snow storms in Canada.
The market can grind down instead of “collapse” prices can flatline or be inflated away over time. Prices don’t plunge to zero, they stagnate, or erode under the steady drizzle of inflation.
“It could be worse – at least its not snowing”
I haven’t come to a conclusion yet one way or the other.
It is obviously not a Ponzi scheme in the strict sense—there is no orchestrator, no deliberate deception, no promise of guaranteed returns funded by new victims. The legal and moral architecture of a Ponzi simply isn’t present.
But is it like a Ponzi scheme? In that the system’s outcomes rhyme with the logic of a scheme that can only function as long as the next generation is willing—or forced—to shoulder the inflated buy‑in. The resemblance is structural, not moral.
Here is the article that sparked my curiosity.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2024001/article/00002-eng.htm
Groot , that sounds horribly distorted and far from the truth and b.c real estate has never been close to a ponzu scheme. The market today is running like a well oiled machine , good inventory and fair prices . Never been a better time to buy
I’m thnking of writing a post for HHV. So far I have the first and last sentences and just have to fill in the middle.
-Has the Canadian housing become a giant intergenerational extraction machine similar to that of a Ponzi scheme?
-Mathematical certainity guarantees that every Ponzi scheme eventually collapses when you run out of new particiapants willing to pay higher prices.
Dundiggin UVic compensates hosts $1350 for a four- week program, $45 extra for additional nights, per student and each student must have their own room. Ones that go for longer are at the same rate per month. It’s not considered rental income.
If Canada officially becomes the preferred destination (over U.S. Europe and Australia) for Chinese looking to migrate abroad then that’s going to help RE no doubt. They are more likely to bring cold hard cash with them than work the gig economy and low paying jobs like the current wave of immigrants.
“what did 1568 Eric Rd sell for?”
Sold at $1,193,000
Listed at $1,259,000
Marko or any other HHVers in the know – what did 1568 Eric Rd sell for?
Yes it’s a smart deal, our auto sector can never really compete anyways.
Carney nailed a great deal with China , let’s keep it going . Maybe China will build the new pipelines through b.c . Canadas future is looking bright. Now let’s get our friends back again buying real estate too
Depends on what you offer, but should be at least 1k in the core.
>> Patrick I would bet that the vast majority of the 3,129 people relocating to Victoria are retirees. ( No stats, personal experience ).
Victoria (CMA) gets about 2,000 immigrants per year, with average age 34. Only 4% of immigrants are retirement age (65+). And overall age in Victoria is stable at 44 years.
So no, I don’t agree with the premise that “ the vast majority of the 3,129 people relocating to Victoria are retirees”. For example, if we got the usual 2,000 immigrants/PR in last year, that would make the majority of the 3,129 people to be non-retired immigrants, with an average age of 34.
https://www.icavictoria.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Immigrant-Profile-Insert-V6-Digital.pdf
8 sales over $1.5. Just recently a 2014 build on a small in-fill lot (3,600 sq.ft.) lot sold for $1,537,000 on Myrtle Street.
Patrick I would bet that the vast majority of the 3,129 people relocating to Victoria are retirees. ( No stats, personal experience ).
@ Vic RE analyst……what is the ballpark monthly rent for short term home stays?
Looks we are well short of Carney’s 500,000 target -> https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-december-2025
Statcan population estimates for year end july 1, 2025 are out.
Given the population loss from reduced foreign workers/students, it’s nice to see that Victoria (CMA) population still grew by 0.7% (3,129 people) to 445,090. Hopefully with the foreign workers numbers stabilizing, we should see higher growth next year.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801
Even $1.5M might be a record?!
Yeah $2.5M I could maybe see in Fairfield. Oaklands (my neighborhood) is nice but it’s not Fairfield/Oak Bay nice.
Yeah, if real estate catches a cold in Victoria, the western communities will get pneumonia. The inability to rent suites out there is probably the first symptom of how sick the sales out there will be this spring. If people don’t like cutting prices on their rental suites, just wait until they have to drops their expected asking prices to sell their homes.
Just typical people thinking their own shit don’t stink when reality says something different. Look at how the Westshore owners get all pissed off when I say their hood isn’t desirable.
Re home stays, they still exist. Public school districts for younger students, some short ones like MLI homestay. UVic going strong. Last year I had four monthly homestays for UVic. They did have several hundred less students, particularly lower numbers from Japan. I have one right now but it’s the only month this year by choice. They are looking for hosts for March still. One cooked meal a day and food provided for breakfast and lunch. Generally have to be in main part of a home. A suite with direct access might be okay but definitely not a separate suite. It’s certainly not for everyone.
Patrioz , or they have to sell because he has been transferred to Calgary for work and they just bought a house there and are moving next month
Well, a place just sold on Chandler for 2.5 mil. But that was just a full new build after a tear down in East Fairfield within strolling distance of the beach… Maybe the Avenbury folks don’t understand how comps work…lol
Reno and flip is business income.
Nothing has every sold above $2 million in the Oaklands area so that would be a record breaking sale.
$2.5M for a 2700sqft house on a ~6500 sqft lot in that neighborhood?? wild……
2614 Avebury is attempting a flip. Bought in 2023 for 1.4M, now asking 2.5M. Appears to be renovated from top to bottom. Even then that’s a hell of a lot of $. Can’t imagine someone paying it but who knows.
Wonder if CRA will go after the capital gains. Likely depends if it’s a repeat flipper (i.e. this is their business) or a one-off.
The panel guys are doing lots of multifamily , floors walls roofs. But that’s not really where all the time is spent in building. The plug and play adu and smaller homes under 2000 there has really been nothing new. In both these products I didn’t c any real cost savings .
I don’t think anyone is assuming they will replace custom built homes/condos. They are more applicable for institutional purposes such as schools, low income housing, mental health facilities etc. I mean these things have been around forever, just go to any mining or oil/gas camp and have a look.
I had chance recently to tour a sip plant and a few modular prefab facilities. Totally uninspiring with pretty low tech facilities. All were pretty much the same with zero groundbreaking ideas. At this time they are not even close to making any real impact on house construction and have their own logistic problems ie. transport for 1
Ya househunt is pretty civil, I don’t take anything personally. Real estate hasn’t been too exciting so not surprised it can veer off. I think Leo is checked out , probaly good for his mental health and realizing that he really couldn’t make an impact as the market is too complex to make change . It can be a rabbit hole
I’m active on a few private sites that use stable identities rather than anonymous accounts. It tends to reduce the drive‑by trolling and helps keep the discussions more civil.
Even so, this site still has real value. It would be unfortunate to see it disappear, because it offers a space for people who are genuinely interested in real estate to exchange ideas. The alternative is relying on industry‑run platforms that often repeat the same talking points.
I rarely block anyone here unless the conversation slips into personal attacks. In fact, I appreciated many of Max’s contributions when the focus stayed on real estate.
Good to c carney out doing business, it appears that a lot of countries are beating a path to chinas door . We need to do more business with like minded countries . Go Canada go
The following conclusion has been made countless time on this blog: “Don’t try and time a buy for your principal residence. Do whatever you can to get into a SFH in a diserable neighborhood, you will almost certainly come up on top in the medium to long-term. ”
If you want a real life example, just look at that groot who claims to be an appraiser. Guy has been calling for a crash for the last 15 years while prices have more than doubled. He could have bought back then and paid off the entire mortgage by now!
That’s what the money is for, so where did the money go if there is no digging?
“All that said, if the CRA did decide to take a run at someone, allocating a value and CRA having “no credible framework to defend it” is not an issue, because that’s not how it works. The CRA doesn’t have to defend it, they just have to allege a simple allocation, say based simply on square footage, and then it is the taxpayer’s obligation to defend anything different. In tax law, once the CRA has made an assessment, the onus shifts to the taxpayer to disprove it, so the lack of credible framework (if there is one) becomes more the taxpayer’s problem. An assessment is deemed to be correct unless the taxpayer disproves it.”
Appreciate you weighing in Peter and suspect you are right.
“Where did the money go? That’s what I want to know,”
Where are the bodies, that’s what I want to know. Lets start there. This charade has gone on long enough. We need to dig up the septic field NOW!
Patrick, Tbone and others, curious if there is a reddit group where you take your discussion unrelated to HHV core topics? I personally 100% support the space to explore and discuss these topics, but the more you use this HHV space it shifts away from its core mission, the greater reason there is for Leo to abandon it.
Case in point: “Lmao you started this with your left wing bs. Now get back in the kitchen and clean, I know you made a mess in there making dinner tonight.”
(As for the vid, it is biased but worth watching.)
Where did the money go? That’s what I want to know, seems like maybe we also need a Minnesota moment.
BC Housing starts numbers out for 2025. All time record low for SFHs starts yet again, all time high (over 25,000) for purpose built rentals.
As I keep repeating if you are thinking about buying a SFH and are in a position to buy I would do it sooner than later.
https://www.bchousing.org/research-centre/housing-data/new-homes-data
Looking at financing for a missing middle project and a number of lenders are not lending on missing middle spec builds without parking – I guess they see increased risk in terms of those not selling.
It’s been a long time since my parents had homestay students, but aren’t you responsible for a certain number of meals?
In terms of renting things are not getting any better and will likely get worse for landlords (but positive for society, I am happy to see that landords are having to negotiate for once). Reddit thread from yesterday-> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/s/DLzNbHxMtx
If you were in a different location I would say maybe try furnished monthly rentals but that won’t fly in a Colwood basement suite.
Versus piling on months of vacancy I would drop the rent yet again, unfortunately that is how markets work. Vacancy goes to 25 year high with an all time record high (by a mile) in purpose built rental construction and lower population growth = rents must come down.
There would have invariably been children dying at residential schools. Infectious diseases would have run rampant through the schools. Children gathered from remote communities would have had little natural immunity, modern medicine was in its infancy. Measles, chickenpox, the Spanish influenza would have had devastating effects due to the cramped living conditions they were exposed to. Children would have to be buried on site. Family might have been difficult to locate and notify. Claiming that children were murdered is probably an exaggeration.
So let see if I have this right. A claim of murder and burial of 221 children in a mass grave is made by the leader of the Kamloops Band in 2021 without one shred of direct evidence. And as a result of this claim our Province, Country and World is set on fire both figuratively and literally. Every elementary school child in our Province wears an orange shirt to honour this claim and once a year our Country shuts down to mourn the event. Justin Trudeau orders the flag be flown at half mast and from the Vatican the Pope issues a public apology. All on the basis of the most salacious lie ever told in the history of this once proud Country.
Does that sound about right or any I missing something?
There’s no need to politicize this.
Stick to the facts. Namely that the central shocking claim from five years ago (2021) was a genocide with 215 bodies buried in unmarked graves at Kelowna Residential School. And to date, ZERO bodies have been discovered. That is not only detailed in the video I linked to, but it is confirmed by the rebuttal CBC video you posted. Both the CBC host and the history professor in your cbc link agreed that no bodies have been discovered “to date” . And that’s about 5 years from when the story broke, and over $10 million was provided by the government to search for evidence.
Can we at least agree that no bodies have been discovered, or do you dispute that as well? If so, let’s see a link.
Lmao you started this with your left wing bs. Now get back in the kitchen and clean, I know you made a mess in there making dinner tonight.
Patrick , ya drippa has to go if it is going to have an effect on private property rights . Eby and wingnut lefty’s are becoming useful idiots . It’s going to be painful to wind this back but it will be the reason the ndp get thrown out . Useless bunch who have made everything worse in our province. Christy Clarke is looking good lol
Great to see Patrick spreading racist disinformation “sO PeoPLe cAN mAkE uP ThEIr OwN MiNDs”, helping to turn a housing blog turns into an alt-right cesspool.
https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-108-daybreak-kamloops/clip/16186835-historian-reviews-claims-making-killing
Yes, a tough topic for sure. And I didn’t comment one way or another, just pointed out the documentary so people can make up their own minds. These issues are related to land use and ownership and I consider that housing related.
Patrick , Tough subject here in b.c . I myself try to stay clear of politics as I’m only here for the money . I do my best not to be a Canadian or anything else for the most part lol
Great documentary for anyone interested in these BC and Canadian issues. Also helpful to read some of the 5,000+ comments from Canadians and others from varied backgrounds to hear what they think.
https://youtu.be/TSRn8BzpvLc
“Making a Killing: Reconciliation, Genocide, and Plunder in Canada.
Making a Killing is a feature
documentary film exposing the massive scandal behind the taking of wealth, land, and power from the Canadian public to benefit indigenous tribes. It debunks the worst lie in Canadian history: the lie that 215 bodies were found at the Kamloops Residential School and that Canadians committed a mass murder against indigenous children.”
The holiday period makes downtown Victoria’s vacancy rate unusually difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, the evidence that does exist shows it running above that of adjacent neighbourhoods.
For residents of the western communities, this creates an opening that has been absent for some time: the chance to both live and work in the downtown core.
Condo units appeal to tenants who want convenience and modern amenities, according to a Canadian landlord guide: renters choosing condos are typically looking for newer buildings, better soundproofing, and on‑site features like gyms or secure parking.
Basement suites attract renters who prioritize affordability, especially in high‑rent cities. They are often chosen because they are “usually less expensive than other types of rental units”
https://prepareforcanada.com/housing/settlement-journey/arrival/basement-apartment-living-canada
More of a kitchenette that can easily become a wet bar and laundry is shared since it’s all still part of the family.
This is annecdotal, but I know a few people that moved to downtown rentals from suites in the western communities because of better rents, closer to work, and for the feeling of not being in a basement.
We have a suite up for rent right now, we dropped the rent and are getting a few more bites from prospective tenants but nothing like we’ve had in previous years. Vacancy rate must be very high right now as I’m reading? Multiple friends have suites available for rent right now as well. Anyone have feedback on hosting homestay students are those programs paused with far less international students?
Well Peter if the issue of basement suites ever got to tax court, it would be a fascinating read. Not necessarily about the property but all of the nuances that the case would touch upon involving mixed-uses.
The 2025 decision on vacation rentals was interesting. It was tidy because vacation rentals are clearly commercial. Basement suites are not. They’re hybrid by design.
Basement suites -that’s a really big can of worms. Given that the issue has never reached the court – I doubt CRA wants to go there unless a clearly unambiguous case arises.
So submit a notice of objection.
Should just try and avoid renting your your Principal residence if possible. Appreciate that’s not possible for everyone but the whole point of owning a SFH is about having your own private piece of land and not share any walls …
I think it’s nice to document and be prudent, but it might be just better to pay the ransom if you’re up against the cra. Probably better for your mental health
The absence of case law is, in my view, the most telling part of this. Notwithstanding some pronouncements and notwithstanding the heightened risk factors as explained in the Ammo Baines interview posted on this blog, this has just not been an area where the CRA has significantly gone after mom & pop.
The Ammo interview says if your suite is 30% of total size, you’d be well-advised to report it as separate (non PR). Personally, I would not be doing that, and there is no hard & fast 30% rule, but to each their own. Yes there is a risk.
All that said, if the CRA did decide to take a run at someone, allocating a value and CRA having “no credible framework to defend it” is not an issue, because that’s not how it works. The CRA doesn’t have to defend it, they just have to allege a simple allocation, say based simply on square footage, and then it is the taxpayer’s obligation to defend anything different. In tax law, once the CRA has made an assessment, the onus shifts to the taxpayer to disprove it, so the lack of credible framework (if there is one) becomes more the taxpayer’s problem. An assessment is deemed to be correct unless the taxpayer disproves it.
Best to give your tenants a deal if they pay cash every month.
Basement suites are too structurally integrated into the primary dwelling to support any defensible fair‑market‑value allocation between “units.” The foundation, mechanical systems, utilities, and structural envelope are shared. Once you acknowledge that reality, the absence of case law—and the fact that CRA has never published a methodology for allocating value within a single, inseparable structure—becomes telling. In theory, CRA could demand an FMV split; in practice, they would have no credible framework to defend it.
ADUs are a different matter. Because they are physically distinct from the main dwelling, they can be valued as discrete contributory assets.
For anyone changing the use of an ADU, the prudent step is to obtain a professional appraisal that explicitly breaks out the value of the home, the land, and the ADU’s contributory worth. Keep that report on file for the day it becomes relevant.
You could ask a realtor friend for a letter of opinion, but the risk is obvious: those letters don’t meet recognized valuation standards, and CRA will likely disregard them without hesitation.
“This topic has been absolutely beat to death on HHV over the years, search is your friend”
Thanks Marko, I appreciate this.
This topic has been absolutely beat to death on HHV over the years, search is your friend
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/06/24/new-developments-with-suites-and-capital-gains-tax/
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/10/15/does-a-suite-risk-capital-gains-tax-a-professional-perspective/
Lots of suite discussion. Curious if anyone has experience with the ITA section.45(2) election re changes in use of property, specifically when there is a partial change in use of PR, a rental suite for example. Seems to me that there is little to no awareness of this, based on convos with neighbours. If you filed a 45(2) election to preserve PRE eligibility when renting out a part of your home – e.g. a basement suite – would love to hear deets.
Some online discussions – reddit etc – speculate that this is more relevant for those in the real estate business versus mom and pop rentals. Maybe that is why I got funny looks in recent neighbour conversations.
Nope, this only works best for budget neighborhoods. You get better return spending that same money on the house/landscaping in diserable neighborhoods.
1bed capital park condo with fairly poverty courtyard views just sold for $1000/sqft. Location comes first and that applies to any product, don’t mess it up when buying!
Any neighborhood works, as long as the project stays within the value range of the surrounding homes. The key is avoiding upgrades that push the property beyond what the neighborhood can support. You never want to become the over‑improved outlier.
In a budget neighborhood sure.
New construction has always been expensive, but anyone who has ever taken an older house down to the studs knows the real shock: a full gut often costs more than building new. Once the walls are open, you inherit decades of hidden problems, outdated systems, and structural surprises—and fixing all of it routinely outpaces the price of starting from scratch.
The same economic logic applies to ADUs. In many markets, an ADU won’t deliver an immediate return because achievable rents lag behind the financing costs of the build.
If I were constructing a new home for myself on a vacant lot, I’d seriously consider adding an ADU. The workers are already on site and new materials are being delivered. But for a speculative build, the calculus changes: the added cost can push the project beyond what the surrounding neighborhood can realistically support.
Groot , don’t most discussions here go all over the place higgly piggly
The original discussion was about basement suites versus ADUs. You’re pivoting again into a false‑dichotomy fallacy, and if this pattern continues the next move will be an ad hominem. Let’s stay with the actual premise.
A garden suite is the easiest way to add density, all be it not alot . But I think it’s the least intrusive density without really changing the neighborhood. A 4 plex box just sticks out in probaly the worst way and I wouldn’t want to live beside one
Not when you are talking about increasing the overall value of the property. In a diserable neighborhood the resale value is likely higher with quality renovation and landscaping instead of a garden suite for the same cost.
Aesthetics is an interesting discussion in its own right, and one I run into fairly often. Most commentators here tend to think in terms of ‘curb appeal’ and how that influences market value.
You can certainly argue that a house in sharp contrast with its surroundings will stand out—Oak Bay’s occasional modernist home illustrates the point. But Oak Bay is also a neighborhood in transition, with older character houses steadily replaced by custom modern designs. Given enough time, those original character homes will be the exceptions rather than the norm.
If you want to set aside the functional purpose of a suite and focus solely on aesthetics, that’s an entirely different discussion. In most debates, when someone pivots like that, it’s a tacit admission that the original premise holds and they’re now hunting for terrain they think they can win on. It’s classic goal‑post shifting.
Stick built prefabs are probaly going to be too expensive to c any real return. Prefab adu’s are too difficult to to put in place with municipal requirements
January 12, 2026
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 74 422
New Listings 310 1,172
Active Listings 2,391 2,396
Difficult to predict January this early only but I am going to guess around 390 sales for the month.
More like an ADU takes up valuable space in your backyard and makes the whole property look cheap if you don’t have a large lot. This one is a pretty good example: https://housesigma.com/bc/sold/map/?status=sold&page=1&with_listing=9w8o3m40bkV7GKjm. Nasty
Before you get too far into planning a basement suite, confirm whether that section of the slab has accessible plumbing, drainage, venting. If it doesn’t, you’re not designing a suite—you’re budgeting for concrete demolition.
I generally prefer the idea of an accessory dwelling unit over carving a suite out of a basement. A suite will almost always come in at a lower upfront cost, but an ADU tends to win on the long‑term fundamentals: stronger rental income, greater flexibility in how the space can be used, and a more meaningful boost to overall property value. In most cases, the ADU is the better long‑horizon investment.
The basement suite leverages existing structure, utilities, and envelope. It’s inexpensive because you’re piggybacking on what already exists. But it’s also constrained by that same structure: ceiling height, egress, natural light, plumbing locations, and the psychological reality that “basement living” will always command a discount.
An ADU, by contrast, is a standalone dwelling with its own identity, its own light, its own privacy, and its own market. It behaves like a small house, not a carved‑out corner of an existing one.
So you were able to jam a kitchen and separate laundry in there?
Only committed half the space to the suite. The other half is a family room and rec area. Primarily, the suite allows for a private inlaw space when needed.
https://www.westernstandard.news/news/vacant-housing-tax-cost-ottawa-nearly-what-it-raised/70166
“Revenue Agency data later showed a steep decline in the number of properties deemed vacant under the program, falling from 6,710 in 2022 to 2,710 in 2024.
Administration of the tax required 351 CRA employees, a level of bureaucracy critics said was excessive given the modest returns.”
lol so like one CRA employee would only process 10 to 20 of these per year? Insane.
Why not just put a nice family room/theater room with a wet bar and a home/gym and office instead? Much nicer and better space than some suite given the structure of your house.
A legal suite makes it easier for a prospective buyer to qualify for a larger mortgage. On the surface, that should mean homes with suites sell for more than homes without them. More qualified buyers with more borrowing power generally push prices upward.
But the effect isn’t universal. Spend five minutes reading the comments on this platform and you’ll see how strong the aversion to tenants can be. That sentiment doesn’t erase the financial advantage of a suite, but it does show that not every buyer is willing to pay a premium for one.
If done properly, building a suite should increase the value and salability of your property. Putting in a swimming pool doesn’t.
Is renting out the suite a part of the reasoning for deciding to put one in? I am putting a suite in without any intent of ever renting it out. I am doing it to add usable space, grandparent accommodations for when they visit (or when they need to live here), and down the road if the kids decide to stay local for college.
Listening to a home owner complaining of the cost to put a suite in their home and that it does not make sense because of the lower rents.
A suite isn’t built to make you rich in year one. It’s built to make your retirement less fragile. The rent today may feel modest, but in ten years when you retire, your mortgage will be smaller, your income will be lower, and that steady rental stream will matter a great deal more. You’re not building a cash machine; you’re building a buffer.
Here is a list I lifted from an article but re-wrote and condensed on the reasons why the Canadian condominium market Is struggling. It wasn’t a bad article but heavily influenced by the construction trade and did not discuss how we got into this shit show in the first place.
• Developers are struggling to secure construction financing as lenders tighten underwriting standards.
• Banks are reassessing project risk and withdrawing support mid‑process.
• Interest rate hikes have pushed borrowing costs to levels that render many projects unprofitable.
• Developers are increasingly filing for creditor protection as liquidity evaporates.
Weak Pre‑Sales and Demand Softness
• Pre‑sales are falling short of the minimum thresholds required to trigger construction financing.
• New condo sales have fallen to their lowest levels in years.
• International buyers—once a major demand pillar—have pulled back significantly.
• The assignment market has collapsed, leaving investors unable to exit early.
Buyer Qualification and Market Value Problems
• Many buyers cannot qualify for mortgages at completion due to higher rates and stricter stress tests.
• Buyer default rates have reached new highs.
• Investors are walking away from deposits when the math no longer works.
• Completed condo values are often lower than original purchase prices, eroding confidence and solvency.
Cost Inflation and Construction Challenges
• Construction costs have risen far beyond original budgets.
• Labour shortages are slowing or halting progress on active sites.
• Insurance and regulatory requirements have become more expensive and more complex.
• Pre‑construction fees and closing costs are surging, further discouraging buyers.
Project Delays, Cancellations, and Feasibility Breakdown
• Delays are pushing projects years behind schedule, compounding cost overruns.
• Project cancellations are increasing nationwide as pro formas no longer pencil out.
• Many proposed developments may never be completed under current market conditions.
Investor and Developer Incentive Erosion
• Rental guarantees, incentives, and promotional offerings are disappearing as margins collapse.
• Investors who once relied on flipping assignments or leveraging cheap credit now face negative cash flow and limited exit options.
2026 is suppose to bring in a lot of changes to lenders and OSFI which will change some of the above.
Well I might trust your opinion of that particular beach over some rando who has never been there
Lol wet season
Thinking about selling one of my properties and buying this Ford GT. I think it’s a better investment.
There’s no point pretending that you ‘mute’ people, when you read and can’t resist replying to their posts anyway.
btw, not just originally from Croatia, I am also licensed in Croatia and regularly hold talks at various conferences and real estate events (in Croatian) – https://youtu.be/7udouyus9iM?si=NddrXJPzUngfScO5&t=4381
I trust people inviting me to these events recognize I know what I am talking about 🙂
Trust neither. If you’re interested, do your own research. You could start with the peer reviewed study I posted done by Croatians about the current problems in Zagreb and elsewhere. (From the journal of housing Netherlands)
My experience has been that many RE agents in Canada are wrong a lot, and I wouldn’t accept what they say about Canadian RE, so I don’t see what’s different if they’re talking about another country.
>>> Victoria based
fwiw, I’m on a beach in the South Pacific now. Does that make me an expert on that?
Had to unmute for a second and I see lack of critical thinking skills is at an all time high. Yes, no one complains about new construction quality in Victoria -> https://www.reddit.com?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2
Literally every other week there is a noise transfer between condo units related post on Reddit Victoria. One from this week.
As far as “The paper concludes that insufficient financial and organisational resources”
context is super important here. My strata fees in Victoria are $807/month. My strata fees in Zagreb are $42/month. Yes, the contingency fund is smaller in Zagreb 🙂
The urban planning is way better here and the individual buildings are way better in Croatia. It is what it is. Not everything is the best in Canada, believe it or not.
Who to trust. RE agent originally from Croatia or Victoria based googler?
Not everyone, but I will if I am suspicious. In another building I own in a short term rental company rented a unit to a drug dealer and it was a huge fiasco involving police and multiple months to get this person out.
I also reject most stay requests. If someone asks for a discount or story doesn’t make sense I automatically decline now. Every guest that has asked for a discount has been a huge pain. One lady from California asked for a discount then claimed it wasn’t clean even thought I had a professional cleaner in the unit for 6 hrs the day before. After I noted 6 hrs of cleaning she said oven wasn’t clean enough and requested $200 off the stay.
The Reddit airbnb hosting page pretty much all hosts agree…most guests asking for discount = redflag. Not worth the risk.
>>>> The quality of new builds in Croatia is far better than here
Not according to people who live there. Lots of problems with new builds in Croatia. Especially when built by low wage foreign temp workers from Nepal and India. Read almost any Reddit thread and you’ll find lots of assessments like this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/askcroatia/comments/1n3xpma/jeste_li_primjetili_sve_više_primjedbi_na_život_u/?tl=en
“10% of new construction is worth something, the rest is worthless. So you have bad quality, crowds, noise, heat, and on top of that you’re in a bad location.”
“The windows are too small compared to the size of the rooms. Thin walls and floors, or almost none. Shoddy construction where moisture seeps through like a sieve. Siphons that don’t have a slope or aren’t there at all. The paint cracks on the edges of the drywall. The windows get stuck, the blinds fall down. Complaints are never or poorly resolved.
You open the window. Ten meters in front is another building or a road full of unmaintained diesels that smoke and stink. Insecure bikers roar between buildings and with pleasure raise the pressure of the residents with noise that resonates between the completely flat surfaces of the outer walls of the two buildings.
Saplings have been planted that don’t have much chance of growing into a large tree in that infrastructure. The thermo-accumulation effect of concrete and asphalt makes summers unbearable.
The heating plant breaks down, so there’s no hot water. Everyone turns on electric stoves and air conditioners to warm up. The whole neighborhood draws too much electricity and the transformer station burns out.”
——===——-
It’s not just Reddit threads about new builds, the Croatian housing problems are pervasive including building maintenance and this is well documented in studies like this:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10901-023-10046-w#:~:text=The%20empirical%20research%20was%20conducted,by%20co%2Downers'%20representatives.
“The paper concludes that insufficient financial and organisational resources, insufficient engagement of managers, inadequate collaboration between representatives and managers, and weak energy renovation of multi-family buildings are some of the most important problems faced by co-owners’ representatives.”
Do you personally screen guests based on criminal records? Interesting
Once you confirm a booking their profile picture and last name is made available.
How did you figure out that person was a known criminal?
Airbnb has been utterly disappointing in that sense. You can’t see the last name or photo of the guest anymore until you confirm the booking. Once I confirmed someone that is a known criminal and when I cancelled Airbnb hit me up with a $900 fee and refused to re-fund me even when I provided publicly available court records. Reading the Reddit forms customer support for hosts is pathetic.
As far as losing the protection if someone decides to stay longer and claim they are in a RTA tenancy not a huge concern given the rent is so inflated compared to long term rental market. If you want to stay at 3x a long term stay rates, go ahead. Haven’t had that happen.
Not much to see, solid concrete. It’s a pain to install anything on partition walls with other units as you hit solid concrete.
The quality of new builds in Croatia is far better than here. This a 2017 yr built parkade in Croatia -> https://youtu.be/IY8KIGMGhCA?si=h_Ef7O8UVvUrDyKP Have yet to see anyone in Canada finishing condo parkades to this level.
The urban planning in Croatia sucks for sure, but the individual buildings themselves are far better. The interior trim around my windows is quartz and that’s pretty standard. In Canada you get Vinyl or MDF in a spec built condo building. Windows are also so much better in Europe, etc.
How is your rotted out deck repair coming along?
You should see what’s behind drywall in Croatia.
There is also a big off-platform market for travel nurses in Victoria. You do lose the protection that come with the platforms though.
I spent time as an electrician’s apprentice, and once you’ve seen a few basements with the drywall stripped off, you stop assuming anything behind a finished wall is safe. When there’s no inspection and no oversight, people will splice wires by hand, bury junction boxes where no one will ever find them, skip marrettes, skip connectors, skip staples—skip everything except the risk. They’ll overload breakers with a dozen outlets, and treat grounding as optional. Behind the drywall, it can be an absolute disaster zone.
Problem is when over-regulation restricts online supply people get creative. I see all the time on FB pages and WhatApp groups posting needing short term rental accommodation.
Why are >90% of suites in older homes illegal? The process to put in a legal suite is too complicated and expensive.
Definitely, tourism worked before even the landline, let alone Airbnb. But nowadays people are a lot less likely to write the tourist office asking for a list of rentals, and a lot more likely to go online.
https://realestatemagazine.ca/newmarket-area-real-estate-agent-charged-with-voyeurism-after-alleged-incident-at-clients-home/?utm_source=REM+Inbox+Update&utm_campaign=a849d32478-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2026_01_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-a849d32478-61017017
A lot of my stays are now off platform. I just exchange contact info with guests and when they come back we do it off Airbnb to save on the fees.
I know in my father’s tiny village 40 years ago people were fully booked with German tourists and there were no cellphones, no email, and certainly no platforms, and the German tourists didn’t speak any Croatian and the locals spoke very little German beyond “zimmer” (room in German). Yet somehow it worked 🙂
It took the government forever to realize that AirBnB investors were driving up prices creating a difficult market for younger buyers and renters. Don’t expect them to turn on a dime. Governments are known for overshooting on the upside and downside.
Groot now you’re coming around . All markets should be the Wild West , that’s how u make money .
Basically Patrick you want a free and open market place with minimal government intervention.
While the COV would be able to ask the province to remove STR restrictions if vacancy rate >3% for two years, I don’t see them actually doing that.
There is very little support for STR rentals, other than from STR owners. The typical Victorian is happy to stay in a STR when they travel, but is strongly opposed to a STR next door, or anywhere close to them. And renters would be thrilled to see vacancy rates >3%, and wouldn’t like to see them fall again.
I’d be in favour of restoring the STR areas, but other than svr owners, I wouldn’t expect many people to agree with me.
fwiw, I’m also in favour of removing spec tax, and allowing foreigners and others to buy second homes. This would encourage new housing starts, generally help the economy, and prevent the construction collapse that we will see if vacancy rates stay high.
Speaking of STR and Mount Washington. I’ve noticed a dip in short term rentals at Washy (even though it is allowed provincially and by the regional district). A few people I have talked to have basically “gone dark” on the STR front. They’ll rent to family and friends and maybe friends of friends but not publicly. This may be legal (“The Act applies to short-term rentals being offered to the public”) but will likely escape notice anyhow as enforcement is primarily through platforms.
If you want to use the unit yourself and only occasionally rent this could make sense. Full time STR you are going to need the platforms, the public offer and therefore the provincial and CVRD registration.
Assessment
+2% Victoria SFH,
-5% Mount Washington strata unit
Not surprising to see a dip at Washy. Recreation property is often the first to weaken and inventory has built up a little there albeit from stupidly low levels. Also prices there have been on a multiyear tear. After a terrible season in 2013-14 prices on the hill were little changed since 1995. Then from 2014 to 2024 things went on a multi-year tear going up 2.5 times in price
I’d echo what Marko said. The STR restrictions were/are popular. Witness the number of smaller communities that voluntarily opted into the STR restrictions (principal residence restriction). Easy way for local governments to show they are “doing something” on affordability. So I wouldn’t count on the Victoria restrictions coming off easily or soon unless there was a real change in the makeup of council and maybe not even then.
Think of relaxation of STR rules as a possible future bonus, not something to be banked on in the near term.
Thanks for the feedback on my son’s condo and STR ban.
Hurrah! I tried to post last year but I don’t think it worked. Or it could’ve been because I’m just a birdbrain.
Test
From what I hear, there’s gona be another big round of cuts before the budget announcement. We’ll see what else gets announced during budget time 😉
The current congress is setting records for least productive (in terms of legislation passed. So if something requires legislation to happen I wouldn’t bet on it. That said if Trump’s idea of banning institutional investors from owning SFHs gets attached to either a popular piece of bipartisan legislation or a must pass budget bill then it could happen.
In terms of calls aging well your repeated predictions of widespread RTO for the public service haven’t happened and from what I hear the prov gov’t is still in full on RE downsizing mode. On the other hand your STR call from a few years ago was more or less spot on.
VicREanalyst must have gotten kicked off of facebook and needs a place to release his boomer rants. Try deep breathing, or even talking to a real person every once in a while.
LOL, why would anyone be stung by a post full of verified lies?
VicRE was a little stung by Maggie’s post yesterday and has been on a tear since.
I’ve certainly stopped buying rental condos and won’t buy any going forward, but unlike a lot of people I am not selling either. Admittedly, a part of that is I don’t want to pay capital gains. However, I am really curious as to how the shift to purpose built rentals plays out in the next 10 years. There is a very strong possibility we see a 10 year span of no brand new condo completions downtown. Will people be content to rent or will people still want to own and will the lack of condo supply lead to recovery? Difficult to say, but I am willing to wait it out to see what happens.
100% agree with you on this front. I think vacancy will have to go up a huge amount like 6 or 7% of the STR ban to be relaxed. The problem is politically the ban is wildly popular and while vacancy is going up rents are still very expensive; therefore, plenty of reason for people to still be upset. People on Facebook/Reddit are now upset that purpose-built rentals are sitting with vacant inventory which is a mind boggling reason to be upset (as a renter). They should be happy the there is vacant inventory as that puts downward pressure or prices.
I’ve had overwhelming success with 30 to 60 day stints in my personal residence thanks to the ban. I somehow became an AirBnb super host. I’ve thought about converting one of my long term rental units to a 90 day furnished stint unit when a tenant moves out, but don’t know if I want to add more work. Long term tenants can be very easy at times, sometimes I don’t hear or see them for years.
On a side note, despite all the negative media attention towards “dog crate” condos my best performing rental unit, by far, continues to be a 380 sq.ft. studio downtown without parking. Bottom end of the market so rents way better per square foot than anything else I own, no trouble renting it out either. Super low strata fees, low property taxes, one baseboard heater for entire unit (no maintenance), etc.
Douglas treaty in Vic no need for land acknowledgement , all good
How come there isn’t a land acknowledgement before your posts?
I suppose that you’ve also familiar with the term blowhard
(someone who boasts arrogantly and loves to show off their accomplishments or importance)
There was no heated debate though, just another low IQ liberal getting put in their place via facts.
Do you even know the word conciliatory?
(it is an adjective: intended to calm or pacify. i.e. After the heated debate, the politician adopted a conciliatory tone, hoping to foster a spirit of cooperation.
That’s what happens when people who should otherwise be cooking and cleaning gets a hold of the Internet.
Peter don’t forget the hidden trap of GST on the sale of STR condos
https://rsmcanada.com/insights/tax-alerts/2025/the-hidden-tax-trap-on-condo-sales.html
Speak to an accountant about the recent 2025 Federal Court of Appeal decision
You said it was a 600 square feet condominim. I wouldn’t sell unless a better investment presented itself.
Geez, you almost wouldn’t think this is a housing blog in another country some days.
Imo this is very likely, the vacancies will continue to be high given all the PBR breaking ground and a slow down/reverse in immigration. The STR is a revenue generator and I can see Victoria and the Province tapping into that in the future. I would keep it and ride it out especially if it’s paying for itself anyways.
How about something more practical like mind your own business, keep some distance and not interfere with what they are doing?
Nope apparently she left behind a wife….
I have a question about this – it’s a live scenario. Our son bought a unit in Chinatown maybe 6-7 years ago, about 600 square feet, no parking, loft unit with nice brick walls etc. Rented it out on Air BnB until the STR rental ban, and since then has rented it for 90 day stints, reasonably successfully (I think he’s only had a single one-month vacancy since then). The unit was in a grandfathered (no more) building though I know that’s now irrelevant.
Anyways, the question is whether to hold on or try to sell now. It slightly more than carries itself.
In a way, even at current low price, the unit has served its purpose, in the sense that (a) it’s very likely still worth more than he paid, even net of commission, and (b) crucially, it provided significant income at a time when he really needed it. So it still comes out “ok” even if he sells at current price.
Simple question is whether to hold on waiting/hoping for a recovery. If that were just dependent on overall Victoria condo market, the risk/reward trade-off might still favour just selling and deploying funds elsewhere. But obviously the STR ban coming off would be a major positive, but I’m wondering how likely that really is? My understanding is that if the vacancy rate is above 3% for 2 years, Victoria could choose to opt out of the STR ban, but do people think Victoria would actually do that? My belief was the STR ban is very popular and that Victoria council is not really likely to move proactively in the other direction?
Thanks for input.
Interesting video. Looks to me like that first shot was totally justified, the SUV was coming right at him. But then as she’s trying her getaway to the right and he’s off to the side clearly safe, looks like he leans in to shoot twice more when he’s in no danger at all.
I get the fact that in the heat of the moment (which was caused by her), it’s hard to turn off instinct.
I’m a big fan of Darwin too, in jest & in theory. Unfortunately for that theory, many dead people have already begat offspring, including Renee Good, who has left a husband and a six year old son.
Another unfortunate situation is the prevalence masked & armed state agents on the street in America, and I have a credo for that too:
If there are hoards of masked & armed state agents on the street, you are in the wrong part of town.
She could have demonstrated her non compliance in a number of ways, she chose to accelerate her SUV towards an armed federal agent telling her to get out, that is as stupid as it gets. Couple weeks ago someone else got shot be ICE for doing something very similar.
Yes indeed. She oughta known better. Comply or die isn’t that hard to figure out.
So you expect the agent to look at which way the wheel is turned and then ball park their distance from the vehicle to calculate the probability of getting struck in less than a second? Maybe the driver could have done the smart thing which is to stop, get out of the car when being requested by multiple armed federal agents. This is just darwinism at work, people like this have a higher chance of being eliminated from the gene pool prematurely anyways, today just happened to be her day.
And power hungry, armed men kill -that’s the natural order of things in a fledgling police state.
The 3rd ICE agent would NOT have been hit by the car, her wheels were turned hard to the right and he was off to the left of her left fender. If that ICE agent was in line to get hit by the car, shooting the driver at close range wouldn’t have made any difference…and he didn’t get hit, hell, he didn’t even jump out of the way.
He shot to stop her, not self defence.
I work on the institutional investment side and this is being taken seriously. We will see how your call ages in a couple of months.
Nope, stupid people get killed and here is the video: https://x.com/i/status/2008970974264479911
Turn the audio on, the woman in the background symbolizes what is wrong with society.
You got people calling this murder when they should really be scrubbing the washroom before going downtown to protest some random cause half a world away.
Immigration enforcement is a totally legitimate function of government of course. Every single modern US president has presided over tens of thousands of deportations. But Donald and Kristi are determined to turn enforcement into theatre where the intimidation and violence are not side effects but are the main point. And then people get hurt…or killed
My apologies.
With the current dysfunctional Republican Congress very low chance of that happening, so pretty much a nothingburger
The upvotes your posts fairly consistently get suggest that your occasional visits to Mansplainia are well appreciated.
RE: ICE actions:
The total lack of moral justification and propaganda to hide blatant breaches of international law has a dangerous consequence. That lack of lawfulness and moral clarity will creep from international relations into domestic issues.
I wasn’t being sarcastic…this place needs you (and your sharp tongue).
Sorry to butt in on your mansplaining circle jerk. I’ll toddle off to the kitchen now and let you clear-sighted menfolk call each other “retard” some more.
Too bad none of that is going to help her get from the Westshore to the core.
Do you even know what murder means?
The only low-IQ Canadians are people like you who live off of other people’s tax dollars. How’s that Vancouver island housing market group going? Lol
Glad to see you’re still around with your sharp tongue and clear-sightedness.
No, he didn’t. He threatened to do it. Which is just his way of shaking down somebody for a kickback.
Meanwhile, an ICE agent murdered a woman in Minneapolis today, Kristi Noem is already lying about what happened, and low-IQ Canadians still have a hard-on for being the 51st state.
Hold your enthusiasm…Donald Trump has not enacted a ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes (SFHs). He has, however, announced a plan to call on Congress to pass legislation that would codify such a ban
https://www.wytv.com/news/local-news/trump-announces-plan-to-ban-institutional-home-buyers/
Trump just banned institutional investors from buying SFHs.
Patrick – I feel like this is not apples to apples. The missing middle units are a mix of small apartments and 2/3BR units. To my mind the 3BR units are what set the MM stuff apart.
Difficult market in Vancouver -> https://realestatemagazine.ca/metro-vancouver-home-sales-plunge-to-lowest-level-since-the-90s/
Interesting how stable Victoria has been in relation to rest of Canada.
Noticed that residential contractors are stepping up their advertisement.
The condominium market in Greater Victoria has held up better than most mainland cities, but it has never been truly independent of Vancouver. Historically, Victoria follows Vancouver’s trajectory with a lag, and in a national environment defined by oversupply and an investor pullback, it’s unlikely to remain insulated for long.
Not all units will feel the pressure equally. The most vulnerable are the investor‑oriented condos that have steadily shrunk in size over the past decade. These smaller units were designed for yield rather than livability, and in a market shifting back toward end‑users, they’re losing their appeal. Larger, more functional homes—those that can actually accommodate families—are positioned to fare far better.
When I had my roof replaced by Parker Johnson they would not give a guaranty if there was a roof installed over an existing roof. The metal roof may last 50 years but what’s the condition of the roof underneath?
The key issue is structural load, hidden damage, and reduced inspectability. Most building codes allow at most two layers, but insurers and lenders often treat a second layer as a red flag because it obscures the roof’s true condition.
https://www.lowestrates.ca/resource-centre/home-insurance/does-my-roof-affect-home-insurance-rates-canada
My insurance company was good with the estimated age from the home inspection report (from the purchase) that gave an estimate on the remaining life of the roof as well.
The real point being that the STR ban will be coming off and right now is a good opportunity to get into some of those previously transient zoned downtown condos at a discount.
Based on personal observations I have to agree.
Have you tried Google Street View or CRD Maps (satellite aerial)?
Not really unless previous owner left a receipt (and assuming the previous owner did the work and not the owner previous to them).
You can get a ballpark age from an inspector/roofer.
How do I find the age of my roof?
The house is 55 years old but the roof is newer metal shingles installed over another roof. They are supposed to be “lifetime” 50yr shingles from the research I’ve done on the material but I cannot find who installed them.
The city doesn’t have it on record and it’s not noted at all in my home inspection and nothing was disclosed when I bought. I believe it was installed by the 2nd previous owner, who has died. I’ll contact the previous owner but I already assume they don’t know. Is there anywhere this would be recorded? Can a new home inspection for the purpose of getting just this information actually date the roof? Do roofers do this?
Insurance has given me 1 year to provide this info to them. (What’s the “oldest it can be” to be insured? Should I even bother with an inspection.) Ty!
Who needs missing middle? Unit numbers and impact for core Victoria rentals for a single development like Harris Green are much higher than all of missing middle.
Missing middle housing starts in Greater VIctoria are up from 2020, but most (69%) are in westshore,
2020: 356 missing middle units started
2024: 459
2025: 562
So we’re up 206 units/year from 2020. That’s something.
But 69% of the missing middle starts are in Langford/Colwood.
That leaves only 174 missing middle units starts in core Victoria in 2025. We would get more than that from one or two apartment towers. Harris Green will be bringing 1,500 units to core Victoria if/when fully developed (500 units done by 2028, then 1,000 more started in 2028+). That’s equivalent to 8+ years of missing middle housing core Victoria starts at the current rate, just from one development . In terms of core Victoria units added,
Harris Green will be adding more core Victoria units than all missing middle combined (for next 8+ years) . And Harris green does it professionally, without all the whining about DCC’s/costs for soil testing, tree management etc. and that will add 1,500 purpose built core Victoria rentals – something that will really move the needle for available housing.
https://www.vrba.ca/news/housing-starts-up-20-year-to-date-nov-down-14/
The point being… With huge PBR unit numbers like this coming, there’s not much need for missing middle, and we don’t need municipalities /gov’t to make accommodations for them like financing, variances and lower DCC fees etc.
I call b.s. on that. researchers must have used a bunch of lower income people for this study.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/01/06/smaller-houses-happier-lives/
Interesting article from the Washington post. Notwithstanding the wording of the URL the findings aren’t that smaller homes make you happier but rather that there is a very weak link between housing size and happiness.
Marginal benefit to increasing size:
“This aligns with previous research: After crossing a minimum threshold of space for safety and comfort, every new bedroom or second floor yields less and less benefit. A brief spike in housing satisfaction from moving into “larger accommodations” produces no durable effects on overall life satisfaction. It may even erode it.”
Comparison is the happiness killer:
“In his 2024 peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Public Economics, the assistant professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands found that just the presence of bulky domiciles down the street virtually erased any satisfaction people gained from moving into their own bigger homes. “Larger homes do not increase well-being per se,” Bellet wrote me. “What matters most is how close [the size of one’s house] is to the largest houses in the neighborhood.””
Household size matters:
“Leyva analyzed data from tens of thousands of households in Mexico and Europe. He found that people living alone report the most satisfaction with their financial lives. But when it comes to overall happiness, the happiest households had about four to six people in them, regardless of home size.”
neighbourhood important:
“That aligns with findings from a 2023 study of the Vancouver metro area: Researchers found no significant differences in well-being between people living in single detached homes, duplexes, townhouses, laneway houses and apartment buildings (basement units smaller than 300 square feet were the only negative exception). What did people say they missed most in their neighborhood? Affordability, proximity to family and friends, and a sense of community. Home design was eighth on the list.”
Condos are not different than SFH, location is paramount. Humboldt valley and vic west continues to outperform other areas of downtown and surrounding areas by far.
This is why the majority of my rental units are in Vic West. When the market is hot everything rents/sells, but when things slow having a rental in a solid building and desirable location helps.
100% in 10 years the reddit threads will be “why is most available housing rentals owned by large corporations that increase my rent the max allowable every year.”
I also think in 10 years when a buyer phones me looking for a downtown condo the newest condo building will be 13 years old. There is nothing condo even rumored downtown right now and these things take 5 years from announcements to keys.
Like I said, stay away from the Westshore if you can!
It’s gotta be hard for the mom-n-pop landlord with an undesirable basement suite/location, if they are competing with 1000s of new purpose built rentals. Likely need to accept some combination of lower rent and lower quality tenants. Or just stop renting and use the space themselves.
Condominiums will recover their appeal, but the process won’t be instantaneous. Sentiment, inventory, and rates all move on their own timelines, and the market only rebalances once those pieces align. And even then, the engine doesn’t turn over without investors. You need pre‑sales to finance a tower, and investors don’t return on hope—they return after seeing a couple of years of rising rents, absorption rates, and rising prices. Until that pattern re‑establishes itself, the market stays in a holding pattern.
Dropped the rent
Thank you hhv for input, wish me luck on solid tenants
Don’t listen to that bs, condos will always get built. Lmao, this guy just doesn’t miss when it comes to being flat out wrong each and every time.
Groot , could very well be the future where whole generations are just renters . If your right and condos don’t get built then in a few years there might be a lot of buyers chasing after very few if any new builds . Huge price pressure
It’s becoming harder to say with any confidence whether buying a condominium is more appealing than renting a new purpose‑built rental. Renters increasingly favour PBRs for their stability and quality, while would‑be buyers are delaying ownership because of affordability.
What I’m noticing — and what many buyers quietly admit — is a growing reluctance to purchase a condo that could decline in value while carrying costs rise year after year. At the same time, the price gap between condos and detached homes keeps widening. The irony is hard to ignore: a disciplined renter may end up in a stronger position to buy a house sooner than the condo owner who thought they were taking the “first step” on the property ladder.
Twenty years ago, the choice was a new condo or a tired 1970s apartment. A condo then was the only way to secure dignity, stability, and contemporary housing standards. People weren’t buying condos because they were good investments; they were buying them because the rental alternative was visibly worse.
Today, the new PBRs have flipped that equation: the rental option is often the higher‑quality product, while the “starter condo” is the compromise.
That entire structure has inverted.
Yep, it’s all just a guess and as we have all figured out stats and data mean squat when it comes to predictions
Whatever greases your rails Thursty.
Groot, that kinda ignores the fact people would like to own their digs and new is a lot more appealing than old . Developers will switch back to developments for sale as quick as they can . It’s a much better business model than building rentals
Several developments in Victoria and Esquimalt are already in construction, which is the strongest indicator that the region is still committed to expanding purpose‑built rental stock for the immediate future.
I suspect that PBRs will be the dominant form of multifamily construction in the core for the rest of this decade. While our vacancy rate has increased I suspect that the rate in Victoria will continue to remain below the national average. Contractors will just factor in a higher vacancy rate in their decision making process.
Lowering DCCs would be helpfull and if they were fixed or indexed that would relieve some of the uncertainity in building. DCC cost over runs would therefore be transfered off the builder and on to the tax base.
It’s going to be really difficult to get condo projects off the ground even if they allow foreign buyers, etc.
I think the best bet to keep housing starts up would be to cut DCCs for rental projects for the time being just to keep construction moving ahead.
I’m guessing going forward new rental projects will be tailing off this year and we might see some changes coming to get new condo projects moving again
Victoria Real Estate Board
January 5th, 2026
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 12 422
New Listings 52 1,172
Active Listings 2,314 2,396
Victoria’s home prices have shown a small year over year increase while cities on the mainland have posted declines.
Relative to other cities in BC. I give Victoria a passing report card for the year.
The ownership market can absorb turbulence because its fundamentals—scarcity, geography, and long‑standing desirability—are structural.
The rental market has no such buffer. When rents weaken, the effects ripple outward: investor math deteriorats, purpose‑built rental pipelines slow, and the broader price environment loses some of its underlying support.
In other words, Victoria’s stability this year is real, but it rests on a foundation with a visible fault line. The rental market is the weakest link in the chain.