December: Steady market wraps up the year
Little change in the market to end the year, with condo sales remaining quite sluggish and essentially unchanged in the last 5 months, while single family activity came in a bit stronger, though the big jump in October’s activity did not last.
The trend of weaker new listings also continued in December. It’s unclear exactly whether that’s because there’s less re-listing activity or it’s actually fewer fresh listings, but the stagnation in inventory makes me think it’s likely a bit of both. No one is going to be too excited to throw their properties onto an already pretty big pile.
The trend in seasonally adjusted inventory has now turned down. We’ve had a few of these dips since 2021 so I wouldn’t confidently call us past the peak just yet, but we’re going to have to see weaker sales or stronger new listings to push higher into the 4000+ level we were at in 2012 / 2013.
Essentially no change to market balance in December, with both months of inventory and the sales to new list ratio coming in similarly to November levels.
Combining the two measures shows a very small improvement from November, with the market just about perfectly balanced.
Balanced market means stable prices, and that was the case in December.
Pretty wild looking at all the things that happened in 2025 and the market ends up essentially in the same place it was a year ago. The drops in interest rates and improvements in affordability were roughly cancelled out by economic and political turmoil, with values going exactly nowhere for 12 months. That’s reflected in generally stable assessments, which is quite different than the lower mainland condo market which got sideswiped pretty hard.
It’s also time to review our 2025 predictions and update some long run and affordability data for the market. Not quite ready yet but I’ll put up that post soon.
Looks like the China EV agreement also includes a provision that transport Canada agrees to fast-track certify (CMVSS ) new Chinese EVs within 8 weeks.
https://www.autonews.com/ev/ane-canada-evs-china-tariffs-tesla-volvo-0119/#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20deal,change%20is%20a%20positive%20step.
“ As part of the deal, Transport Canada will certify new Chinese EVs within just eight weeks, according to a government official with knowledge of the agreement”
——===—-====
Here’s a snapshot of current Australian EV sales for month of December 2025. As you can see, BYD leads in total sales with 5 of the top 10 cars. I’d expect most of those BYD models to be fast-track certified within 8 weeks of application.
The best-selling EVs in Australia in December 2025 were:
BYD Sealion 7 – 2,546 sales
Tesla Model Y – 1,998 sales
Tesla Model 3 – 587 sales
BYD Atto 2 – 531 sales
BYD Seal – 413 sales
Zeekr 7X – 293 sales
BYD Atto 3 – 270 sales
BYD Dolphin – 265 sales
Kia EV5 – 246 sales
Toyota bZ4X – 183 sales
From that list, you can see what a small player the Tesla Model 3 is for EV sales in Australia. 587 sales for a month and that’s only 8% of EV sales. I wouldn’t expect Tesla Canada to be ordering huge numbers of Chinese Model 3 for Canada. I expect most Chinese EV imports to be non-Tesla within a year.
Your body shop would suffer, any minor damage and they’re immediately written off. What a waste.
I don’t know how profitable a Tesla dealership would be – service would struggle. After driving my Model S almost 300,000 km with very few issues just crossed 65,000 km with my 2023 Model Y and to date the only thing I’ve done is added wiper fluid. Still on the original tires and not a single issue.
I service my parents’ ICEs for them so they don’t get scammed and defintively getting them an EV in the next year or so. Just the price of oil changes these days is insane. Not to mention time wasted on servicing.
Discussion we are having here is not whether Tesla can compete on price, but can they deliver the Model 3 at $34,995 (for purposes of current tarrif deal) and my argument is if they are already selling a SUV from Berlin at $49,900 they aren’t far off on making the numbers work for a China built sedan.
Another way of looking at it right now the Model 3 in Croatia is around 25,900e and even with the very weak CND dollar (CND is the lowest compared to the Euro in a decade plus) that comes out to less than $42,000 CND. On top of that they have the software lock on the battery trick they’ve used before to further come in lower on the price.
As far as BYD my uncle bought a Seal last year and I had a chance to drive it. Great car, but far from cheap in Europe. Based on prices in Europe the only car I really see BYD bringing under 35k is the Surf. The Surf is a great car -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjPxv4jd89E but the problem is the CND market isn’t into compact cars (Toyota doesn’t sell any models smaller than the Yaris including the Yaris, Honda doesn’t sell the Fit, etc).
Will there be a BYD dealership in Victoria in 10 years, probably, but currently Tesla benefits the most from this annoucement which is inconvenient for the CND government in terms of optics. They cut a deal with China, further putting a nail in the coffin for the Ontario auto sector, which benefits Tesla/Elon the most at the moment.
Now we will be getting Model 3s from China instead of the US, from the same company 🙂
They can’t compete on price point in China with their cheapest Chinese built model 3s versus the domestic brands. So not sure how they will accomplish that all of a sudden in Canada.
Marko- You should open a Tesla dealership.
https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/modely/design#overview
What do you think the difference in production cost is between the $49.9k and the $74.9k Model Y? Probably less than 10k, if that, likely closer to 5 to 7k. Do they want to sell the 49.9k Model Y including shipping it from Berlin to Halifax and than railing it from Halifax to Vancouver then transporting it to the island, probably not but they have production capacity and clearly a margin at $49.9k on a larger car built in Germany. I am sure they would prefer to sell all the Ys at $74.9k trim level where the margin is multiples higher.
Tesla is artifically creating these lower price point model trims to capture more marketshare. The 49.9k Model Y has a glass roof like all the other trims but they cover it so you can’t see through it so they are purposely making the car crappier (even thought for that component production cost is higher as they have to cover it to make it crappier). So in that component scenario they are purposely making a car crappier, at a higher production cost, so they can sell it for less while avoiding errosion of sales on the higher trims.
Tesla doesn’t need more than 24,500 Model 3s/year right now from China but if they did need more than 24,500/year a $34,995 software locked battery would not shock me as they’ve done that sort of thing before to hit certain price points and if the Berlin Y is already down to $49,900 they aren’t too far off numbers wise on the China Model 3.
You have to consider a bunch of other factors such as FSD now going to a subscription model, supercharger networking making a ton of $, etc., so even if they were to sell a car at cost with any excess production availability they are still ahead.
I’d expect some byd’s to trickle in during 1H 2026. Both above and below $35,000 cad. Likely will partner with an existing dealership in Quebec, BC and Ontario. These will mainly be demos and small number of sales but provide a presence for people to test drive and place orders. Then numbers will ramp up in 2H 2026 into 2027. In Australia, BYD alone now outsells Tesla. Because they have cars in the $28k cad range. They can bring cars in to demo and sell in small numbers without CMVSS certification – using the CBC (case-by-case) method which only takes a few weeks.
Here’s what Elon Musk said about this issue in a 2024 conference call “ if there were no trade barriers, Chinese electric-vehicle companies would “pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”
You do understand that Tesla does not want to sell model 3s in Canada for 35k right?
No country has saved the environment by making itself poor. The problem with last 2 decades of implementing policy based on blindly accepting advocacy based on dogma from zealots is that it hijacked anything presented as environmental policy as a way put in place command economy mechanisms that have been proven failures for 200 years.
It took the media a couple of days to use some common sense but here it is -> https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-poised-be-early-winner-canada-opens-door-chinese-made-evs-2026-01-19/
Obviously Carney/Government wasn’t going to bring this up at the time of signing the deal.
I wouldn’t 100% rule out Tesla not bringing a stripped down version of the Model 3 @ $34,995 at some point in the future with a software locked battery. You can get Berlin built Model Y (bigger car) in Victoria for $49,900 so given production probably cheaper in China and easier logistics and a smaller car they can’t be too far off $34,995 + $5,000 to unlock the battery.
They’ve done this trick before -> https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/mosox9/if_i_buy_the_151km_model_3_can_i_upgrade_the/
Looks like we are at neutral rates for now, so let’s see who can afford to buy with mortgages between 3.5% to 4%.
All of Canada can go back to living as caveman and it still wouldn’t make any difference to the global environment.
Tesla doesn’t need more than 1/2 the quota as they are shipping the Ys from Berlin and 24,500 Model 3s is plenty for the CND market. I wouldn’t be surpised if they had room left over for Model Ys so they don’t have to ship them from Halifax (coming from Berlin) to Vancouver.
As for the other manufactures in the short term, where is BYD going to sell their sub $35,000 CAD cars from? The shipping port in Vancouver? Has a sub $35,000 model been CMVSS certified under the Motor Vehicle Safety Act. Total non-sense if you think you’ll be able to buy a BYD this spring.
As I said in my previous post this is an immediate benefit to Tesla. They aren’t producing Model 3s in Berlin so this is really good news for them. Expect a huge price drop on the Model 3 in the coming weeks, probably 30k down to $44,900 or lower.
Hey guys I would like to advocate for giving frucks about the environment. Making money and giving frucks are not as mutually exclusive as is Thursty’s attitude and intelligence.
Be interesting to see how the other manufactures respond.
Regarding the import of China EV to Canada. 24,500 cars (half of the total) are reserved for cars under $35,000 cad retail. Which means they won’t be Teslas, as cheapest Tesla model is $50k+. Unless Tesla slashes prices below $35k, we should be seeing lots of byd and other China evs
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-poised-be-early-winner-canada-opens-door-chinese-made-evs-2026-01-19/
“However, under one clause in the agreement, half of the quota will be reserved for vehicles under 35,000 CAD (usd $25,189). Tesla model prices are all above that number.”
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 155 422
New Listings 600 1,172
Active Listings 2,468 2,396
Running a bit behind last year in terms of sales.
In order to make money you have to have a marketable skill and be willing to bust your ass. Not many people meet those qualifications.
Marko, agree never a better time to make money . So much opportunity out there just get out there and hustle . Money is cheap right now and easy to beat the dot
It’s a possible to get lower rates with lower LTV, especially for self employed incomes.
Now imagine if that nurse has a partner making just 80k, they would be in the market for a decent SFH in the core.
Lots of interesting topics on Reddit these days -> https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/1qfz8l2/is_it_better_to_put_20_down_or_15_down_and_pay/
I’ve had a number of clients in recent years opt for CMHC even thought they had 20% down for various reasons including lower interest rates (for the entire lenght of the 25 year mortgage).
From a Victoria reddit thread yesterday…goes back to my point while things a tough still plenty of opportunity out if you are will to apply yourself a bit out of highschool. Income below gets you into a brand new townhome as a single person -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29232442/73-368-tradewinds-ave-colwood-royal-bay (not GST for first time buyers, no PTT).
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1qfmjhm/us_rn_14_yrs_experience_considering_a_move_to/
“HOW TO TRIGGER A TROLL”
-Just Jack
These people permanently belong in the kitchen.
To all those calling for a housing ponzi crash in Victoria, here is how much a 1000 sqft SFH costs in Compton… Make your own decision if Victoria is over valued or not.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1317-W-School-St-Compton-CA-90220/20996392_zpid/?utm_campaign=androidappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
BYD already outsells Tesla in Australia, since joining the market there in 2022.
With the new tariff changes, BYD EV cars from China expected to arrive to Canada as early as “a matter of weeks’…
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinese-evs-coming-canada-soon-021129924.html
“ But with Canada rolling out the welcome mat, those companies could move fast.
Chinese EV makers can ramp production and ship quickly, and BYD even operates its own cargo ships that could further shorten transit times,” he said in an email to CBC News. Lashitew says he wouldn’t be surprised if new Chinese EVs arrived as early as March or April.
BYD has opened dozens of dealerships around Australia since entering its market in mid-2022 — and had sold more than 52,000 vehicles there by the start of this year. But vehicles could arrive at Canadian ports in a matter of weeks, says Addisu Lashitew, an associate professor at McMaster University’s DeGroote School of Business.”
The only thing this does in reality in the near term is it allows Tesla to sell the Model 3 in Canada from the Shanghai factory. Who know they might start shipping the Model Y from Shanghai instead of Berlin now as well.
I noticed a few hours after this was announced they took down the order page for the Model 3 so they must be trying to figure out Model 3 pricing as we speak given this announcement.
Given the cheapest Model Y from Berlin is now $49,900 in Canada wouldn’t be surprised if the 3 now started at $44,900 (currently over 80k due to tarrifs and they don’t produce the Model 3 in Berlin).
If you were hoping for a BYD dealership in Victoria not anytime soon.
Peter, ya carney is the right guy for the times, we do need to be playing both the U.S and China. This is all business and we shouldn’t give a fruck about the environment or social justice or any of that other gibberish at this time . Let’s get out there and make money . The lefty’s need they’re check at the beginning of the month
Canadians don’t have to buy Chinese vehicles. It’s that simple.
I think China has shown that any deal will ultimately involve them throwing their weight around uncomfortably. But so has the US now. And so I agree this was worth doing, especially as it seems likely the Canadian auto industry will not survive in its present form anyways and we’re more likely maybe to become a parts supplier to the US (not sure). But what I really like is how Carney implements this, ie pretty limited (initial) access to our market for a pretty good reduction in the Canola tariffs – well done. And maybe this is too much of a wild guess, but if the CUSMA renegotiation has Trump forcing us to choose between US trade and dealing with China, then perhaps this China deal is just bite-sized enough that Carney could choose to trade it off for CUSMA without losing too much. So creating a bargaining chip?
I don’t know. But either way I think it’s reasonably smart, notwithstanding Ford’s bloviating.
Didn’t vote Liberal, but I like Carney’s actions, which are about a 180 degree from his earlier virtue-signalling (and which was why I didn’t vote Liberal). Smart guy at the helm finally, what a relief.
If that was meant to land, it didn’t.
Guy is a certified idiot, look at any decent coastal city in the west coast of the USA and see what the prices are. Lol if you do find one with a low price go check out the property taxes.
After researching the essay, I could conclude it is not like a ponzi scheme and I already have the thought of a metaphor to use due to the atmospheric rivers and snow storms in Canada.
The market can grind down instead of “collapse” prices can flatline or be inflated away over time. Prices don’t plunge to zero, they stagnate, or erode under the steady drizzle of inflation.
“It could be worse – at least its not snowing”
I haven’t come to a conclusion yet one way or the other.
It is obviously not a Ponzi scheme in the strict sense—there is no orchestrator, no deliberate deception, no promise of guaranteed returns funded by new victims. The legal and moral architecture of a Ponzi simply isn’t present.
But is it like a Ponzi scheme? In that the system’s outcomes rhyme with the logic of a scheme that can only function as long as the next generation is willing—or forced—to shoulder the inflated buy‑in. The resemblance is structural, not moral.
Here is the article that sparked my curiosity.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2024001/article/00002-eng.htm
Groot , that sounds horribly distorted and far from the truth and b.c real estate has never been close to a ponzu scheme. The market today is running like a well oiled machine , good inventory and fair prices . Never been a better time to buy
I’m thnking of writing a post for HHV. So far I have the first and last sentences and just have to fill in the middle.
-Has the Canadian housing become a giant intergenerational extraction machine similar to that of a Ponzi scheme?
-Mathematical certainity guarantees that every Ponzi scheme eventually collapses when you run out of new particiapants willing to pay higher prices.
Dundiggin UVic compensates hosts $1350 for a four- week program, $45 extra for additional nights, per student and each student must have their own room. Ones that go for longer are at the same rate per month. It’s not considered rental income.
If Canada officially becomes the preferred destination (over U.S. Europe and Australia) for Chinese looking to migrate abroad then that’s going to help RE no doubt. They are more likely to bring cold hard cash with them than work the gig economy and low paying jobs like the current wave of immigrants.
“what did 1568 Eric Rd sell for?”
Sold at $1,193,000
Listed at $1,259,000
Marko or any other HHVers in the know – what did 1568 Eric Rd sell for?
Yes it’s a smart deal, our auto sector can never really compete anyways.
Carney nailed a great deal with China , let’s keep it going . Maybe China will build the new pipelines through b.c . Canadas future is looking bright. Now let’s get our friends back again buying real estate too
Depends on what you offer, but should be at least 1k in the core.
>> Patrick I would bet that the vast majority of the 3,129 people relocating to Victoria are retirees. ( No stats, personal experience ).
Victoria (CMA) gets about 2,000 immigrants per year, with average age 34. Only 4% of immigrants are retirement age (65+). And overall age in Victoria is stable at 44 years.
So no, I don’t agree with the premise that “ the vast majority of the 3,129 people relocating to Victoria are retirees”. For example, if we got the usual 2,000 immigrants/PR in last year, that would make the majority of the 3,129 people to be non-retired immigrants, with an average age of 34.
https://www.icavictoria.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Immigrant-Profile-Insert-V6-Digital.pdf
8 sales over $1.5. Just recently a 2014 build on a small in-fill lot (3,600 sq.ft.) lot sold for $1,537,000 on Myrtle Street.
Patrick I would bet that the vast majority of the 3,129 people relocating to Victoria are retirees. ( No stats, personal experience ).
@ Vic RE analyst……what is the ballpark monthly rent for short term home stays?
Looks we are well short of Carney’s 500,000 target -> https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-december-2025
Statcan population estimates for year end july 1, 2025 are out.
Given the population loss from reduced foreign workers/students, it’s nice to see that Victoria (CMA) population still grew by 0.7% (3,129 people) to 445,090. Hopefully with the foreign workers numbers stabilizing, we should see higher growth next year.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801
Even $1.5M might be a record?!
Yeah $2.5M I could maybe see in Fairfield. Oaklands (my neighborhood) is nice but it’s not Fairfield/Oak Bay nice.
Yeah, if real estate catches a cold in Victoria, the western communities will get pneumonia. The inability to rent suites out there is probably the first symptom of how sick the sales out there will be this spring. If people don’t like cutting prices on their rental suites, just wait until they have to drops their expected asking prices to sell their homes.
Just typical people thinking their own shit don’t stink when reality says something different. Look at how the Westshore owners get all pissed off when I say their hood isn’t desirable.
Re home stays, they still exist. Public school districts for younger students, some short ones like MLI homestay. UVic going strong. Last year I had four monthly homestays for UVic. They did have several hundred less students, particularly lower numbers from Japan. I have one right now but it’s the only month this year by choice. They are looking for hosts for March still. One cooked meal a day and food provided for breakfast and lunch. Generally have to be in main part of a home. A suite with direct access might be okay but definitely not a separate suite. It’s certainly not for everyone.
Patrioz , or they have to sell because he has been transferred to Calgary for work and they just bought a house there and are moving next month
Well, a place just sold on Chandler for 2.5 mil. But that was just a full new build after a tear down in East Fairfield within strolling distance of the beach… Maybe the Avenbury folks don’t understand how comps work…lol
Reno and flip is business income.
Nothing has every sold above $2 million in the Oaklands area so that would be a record breaking sale.
$2.5M for a 2700sqft house on a ~6500 sqft lot in that neighborhood?? wild……
2614 Avebury is attempting a flip. Bought in 2023 for 1.4M, now asking 2.5M. Appears to be renovated from top to bottom. Even then that’s a hell of a lot of $. Can’t imagine someone paying it but who knows.
Wonder if CRA will go after the capital gains. Likely depends if it’s a repeat flipper (i.e. this is their business) or a one-off.
The panel guys are doing lots of multifamily , floors walls roofs. But that’s not really where all the time is spent in building. The plug and play adu and smaller homes under 2000 there has really been nothing new. In both these products I didn’t c any real cost savings .
I don’t think anyone is assuming they will replace custom built homes/condos. They are more applicable for institutional purposes such as schools, low income housing, mental health facilities etc. I mean these things have been around forever, just go to any mining or oil/gas camp and have a look.
I had chance recently to tour a sip plant and a few modular prefab facilities. Totally uninspiring with pretty low tech facilities. All were pretty much the same with zero groundbreaking ideas. At this time they are not even close to making any real impact on house construction and have their own logistic problems ie. transport for 1
Ya househunt is pretty civil, I don’t take anything personally. Real estate hasn’t been too exciting so not surprised it can veer off. I think Leo is checked out , probaly good for his mental health and realizing that he really couldn’t make an impact as the market is too complex to make change . It can be a rabbit hole
I’m active on a few private sites that use stable identities rather than anonymous accounts. It tends to reduce the drive‑by trolling and helps keep the discussions more civil.
Even so, this site still has real value. It would be unfortunate to see it disappear, because it offers a space for people who are genuinely interested in real estate to exchange ideas. The alternative is relying on industry‑run platforms that often repeat the same talking points.
I rarely block anyone here unless the conversation slips into personal attacks. In fact, I appreciated many of Max’s contributions when the focus stayed on real estate.
Good to c carney out doing business, it appears that a lot of countries are beating a path to chinas door . We need to do more business with like minded countries . Go Canada go
The following conclusion has been made countless time on this blog: “Don’t try and time a buy for your principal residence. Do whatever you can to get into a SFH in a diserable neighborhood, you will almost certainly come up on top in the medium to long-term. ”
If you want a real life example, just look at that groot who claims to be an appraiser. Guy has been calling for a crash for the last 15 years while prices have more than doubled. He could have bought back then and paid off the entire mortgage by now!
That’s what the money is for, so where did the money go if there is no digging?
“All that said, if the CRA did decide to take a run at someone, allocating a value and CRA having “no credible framework to defend it” is not an issue, because that’s not how it works. The CRA doesn’t have to defend it, they just have to allege a simple allocation, say based simply on square footage, and then it is the taxpayer’s obligation to defend anything different. In tax law, once the CRA has made an assessment, the onus shifts to the taxpayer to disprove it, so the lack of credible framework (if there is one) becomes more the taxpayer’s problem. An assessment is deemed to be correct unless the taxpayer disproves it.”
Appreciate you weighing in Peter and suspect you are right.
“Where did the money go? That’s what I want to know,”
Where are the bodies, that’s what I want to know. Lets start there. This charade has gone on long enough. We need to dig up the septic field NOW!
Patrick, Tbone and others, curious if there is a reddit group where you take your discussion unrelated to HHV core topics? I personally 100% support the space to explore and discuss these topics, but the more you use this HHV space it shifts away from its core mission, the greater reason there is for Leo to abandon it.
Case in point: “Lmao you started this with your left wing bs. Now get back in the kitchen and clean, I know you made a mess in there making dinner tonight.”
(As for the vid, it is biased but worth watching.)
Where did the money go? That’s what I want to know, seems like maybe we also need a Minnesota moment.
BC Housing starts numbers out for 2025. All time record low for SFHs starts yet again, all time high (over 25,000) for purpose built rentals.
As I keep repeating if you are thinking about buying a SFH and are in a position to buy I would do it sooner than later.
https://www.bchousing.org/research-centre/housing-data/new-homes-data
Looking at financing for a missing middle project and a number of lenders are not lending on missing middle spec builds without parking – I guess they see increased risk in terms of those not selling.
It’s been a long time since my parents had homestay students, but aren’t you responsible for a certain number of meals?
In terms of renting things are not getting any better and will likely get worse for landlords (but positive for society, I am happy to see that landords are having to negotiate for once). Reddit thread from yesterday-> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/s/DLzNbHxMtx
If you were in a different location I would say maybe try furnished monthly rentals but that won’t fly in a Colwood basement suite.
Versus piling on months of vacancy I would drop the rent yet again, unfortunately that is how markets work. Vacancy goes to 25 year high with an all time record high (by a mile) in purpose built rental construction and lower population growth = rents must come down.
There would have invariably been children dying at residential schools. Infectious diseases would have run rampant through the schools. Children gathered from remote communities would have had little natural immunity, modern medicine was in its infancy. Measles, chickenpox, the Spanish influenza would have had devastating effects due to the cramped living conditions they were exposed to. Children would have to be buried on site. Family might have been difficult to locate and notify. Claiming that children were murdered is probably an exaggeration.
So let see if I have this right. A claim of murder and burial of 221 children in a mass grave is made by the leader of the Kamloops Band in 2021 without one shred of direct evidence. And as a result of this claim our Province, Country and World is set on fire both figuratively and literally. Every elementary school child in our Province wears an orange shirt to honour this claim and once a year our Country shuts down to mourn the event. Justin Trudeau orders the flag be flown at half mast and from the Vatican the Pope issues a public apology. All on the basis of the most salacious lie ever told in the history of this once proud Country.
Does that sound about right or any I missing something?
There’s no need to politicize this.
Stick to the facts. Namely that the central shocking claim from five years ago (2021) was a genocide with 215 bodies buried in unmarked graves at Kelowna Residential School. And to date, ZERO bodies have been discovered. That is not only detailed in the video I linked to, but it is confirmed by the rebuttal CBC video you posted. Both the CBC host and the history professor in your cbc link agreed that no bodies have been discovered “to date” . And that’s about 5 years from when the story broke, and over $10 million was provided by the government to search for evidence.
Can we at least agree that no bodies have been discovered, or do you dispute that as well? If so, let’s see a link.
Lmao you started this with your left wing bs. Now get back in the kitchen and clean, I know you made a mess in there making dinner tonight.
Patrick , ya drippa has to go if it is going to have an effect on private property rights . Eby and wingnut lefty’s are becoming useful idiots . It’s going to be painful to wind this back but it will be the reason the ndp get thrown out . Useless bunch who have made everything worse in our province. Christy Clarke is looking good lol
Great to see Patrick spreading racist disinformation “sO PeoPLe cAN mAkE uP ThEIr OwN MiNDs”, helping to turn a housing blog turns into an alt-right cesspool.
https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-108-daybreak-kamloops/clip/16186835-historian-reviews-claims-making-killing
Yes, a tough topic for sure. And I didn’t comment one way or another, just pointed out the documentary so people can make up their own minds. These issues are related to land use and ownership and I consider that housing related.
Patrick , Tough subject here in b.c . I myself try to stay clear of politics as I’m only here for the money . I do my best not to be a Canadian or anything else for the most part lol
Great documentary for anyone interested in these BC and Canadian issues. Also helpful to read some of the 5,000+ comments from Canadians and others from varied backgrounds to hear what they think.
https://youtu.be/TSRn8BzpvLc
“Making a Killing: Reconciliation, Genocide, and Plunder in Canada.
Making a Killing is a feature
documentary film exposing the massive scandal behind the taking of wealth, land, and power from the Canadian public to benefit indigenous tribes. It debunks the worst lie in Canadian history: the lie that 215 bodies were found at the Kamloops Residential School and that Canadians committed a mass murder against indigenous children.”
The holiday period makes downtown Victoria’s vacancy rate unusually difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, the evidence that does exist shows it running above that of adjacent neighbourhoods.
For residents of the western communities, this creates an opening that has been absent for some time: the chance to both live and work in the downtown core.
Condo units appeal to tenants who want convenience and modern amenities, according to a Canadian landlord guide: renters choosing condos are typically looking for newer buildings, better soundproofing, and on‑site features like gyms or secure parking.
Basement suites attract renters who prioritize affordability, especially in high‑rent cities. They are often chosen because they are “usually less expensive than other types of rental units”
https://prepareforcanada.com/housing/settlement-journey/arrival/basement-apartment-living-canada
More of a kitchenette that can easily become a wet bar and laundry is shared since it’s all still part of the family.
This is annecdotal, but I know a few people that moved to downtown rentals from suites in the western communities because of better rents, closer to work, and for the feeling of not being in a basement.
We have a suite up for rent right now, we dropped the rent and are getting a few more bites from prospective tenants but nothing like we’ve had in previous years. Vacancy rate must be very high right now as I’m reading? Multiple friends have suites available for rent right now as well. Anyone have feedback on hosting homestay students are those programs paused with far less international students?
Well Peter if the issue of basement suites ever got to tax court, it would be a fascinating read. Not necessarily about the property but all of the nuances that the case would touch upon involving mixed-uses.
The 2025 decision on vacation rentals was interesting. It was tidy because vacation rentals are clearly commercial. Basement suites are not. They’re hybrid by design.
Basement suites -that’s a really big can of worms. Given that the issue has never reached the court – I doubt CRA wants to go there unless a clearly unambiguous case arises.
So submit a notice of objection.
Should just try and avoid renting your your Principal residence if possible. Appreciate that’s not possible for everyone but the whole point of owning a SFH is about having your own private piece of land and not share any walls …
I think it’s nice to document and be prudent, but it might be just better to pay the ransom if you’re up against the cra. Probably better for your mental health
The absence of case law is, in my view, the most telling part of this. Notwithstanding some pronouncements and notwithstanding the heightened risk factors as explained in the Ammo Baines interview posted on this blog, this has just not been an area where the CRA has significantly gone after mom & pop.
The Ammo interview says if your suite is 30% of total size, you’d be well-advised to report it as separate (non PR). Personally, I would not be doing that, and there is no hard & fast 30% rule, but to each their own. Yes there is a risk.
All that said, if the CRA did decide to take a run at someone, allocating a value and CRA having “no credible framework to defend it” is not an issue, because that’s not how it works. The CRA doesn’t have to defend it, they just have to allege a simple allocation, say based simply on square footage, and then it is the taxpayer’s obligation to defend anything different. In tax law, once the CRA has made an assessment, the onus shifts to the taxpayer to disprove it, so the lack of credible framework (if there is one) becomes more the taxpayer’s problem. An assessment is deemed to be correct unless the taxpayer disproves it.
Best to give your tenants a deal if they pay cash every month.
Basement suites are too structurally integrated into the primary dwelling to support any defensible fair‑market‑value allocation between “units.” The foundation, mechanical systems, utilities, and structural envelope are shared. Once you acknowledge that reality, the absence of case law—and the fact that CRA has never published a methodology for allocating value within a single, inseparable structure—becomes telling. In theory, CRA could demand an FMV split; in practice, they would have no credible framework to defend it.
ADUs are a different matter. Because they are physically distinct from the main dwelling, they can be valued as discrete contributory assets.
For anyone changing the use of an ADU, the prudent step is to obtain a professional appraisal that explicitly breaks out the value of the home, the land, and the ADU’s contributory worth. Keep that report on file for the day it becomes relevant.
You could ask a realtor friend for a letter of opinion, but the risk is obvious: those letters don’t meet recognized valuation standards, and CRA will likely disregard them without hesitation.
“This topic has been absolutely beat to death on HHV over the years, search is your friend”
Thanks Marko, I appreciate this.
This topic has been absolutely beat to death on HHV over the years, search is your friend
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/06/24/new-developments-with-suites-and-capital-gains-tax/
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/10/15/does-a-suite-risk-capital-gains-tax-a-professional-perspective/
Lots of suite discussion. Curious if anyone has experience with the ITA section.45(2) election re changes in use of property, specifically when there is a partial change in use of PR, a rental suite for example. Seems to me that there is little to no awareness of this, based on convos with neighbours. If you filed a 45(2) election to preserve PRE eligibility when renting out a part of your home – e.g. a basement suite – would love to hear deets.
Some online discussions – reddit etc – speculate that this is more relevant for those in the real estate business versus mom and pop rentals. Maybe that is why I got funny looks in recent neighbour conversations.
Nope, this only works best for budget neighborhoods. You get better return spending that same money on the house/landscaping in diserable neighborhoods.
1bed capital park condo with fairly poverty courtyard views just sold for $1000/sqft. Location comes first and that applies to any product, don’t mess it up when buying!
Any neighborhood works, as long as the project stays within the value range of the surrounding homes. The key is avoiding upgrades that push the property beyond what the neighborhood can support. You never want to become the over‑improved outlier.
In a budget neighborhood sure.
New construction has always been expensive, but anyone who has ever taken an older house down to the studs knows the real shock: a full gut often costs more than building new. Once the walls are open, you inherit decades of hidden problems, outdated systems, and structural surprises—and fixing all of it routinely outpaces the price of starting from scratch.
The same economic logic applies to ADUs. In many markets, an ADU won’t deliver an immediate return because achievable rents lag behind the financing costs of the build.
If I were constructing a new home for myself on a vacant lot, I’d seriously consider adding an ADU. The workers are already on site and new materials are being delivered. But for a speculative build, the calculus changes: the added cost can push the project beyond what the surrounding neighborhood can realistically support.
Groot , don’t most discussions here go all over the place higgly piggly
The original discussion was about basement suites versus ADUs. You’re pivoting again into a false‑dichotomy fallacy, and if this pattern continues the next move will be an ad hominem. Let’s stay with the actual premise.
A garden suite is the easiest way to add density, all be it not alot . But I think it’s the least intrusive density without really changing the neighborhood. A 4 plex box just sticks out in probaly the worst way and I wouldn’t want to live beside one
Not when you are talking about increasing the overall value of the property. In a diserable neighborhood the resale value is likely higher with quality renovation and landscaping instead of a garden suite for the same cost.
Aesthetics is an interesting discussion in its own right, and one I run into fairly often. Most commentators here tend to think in terms of ‘curb appeal’ and how that influences market value.
You can certainly argue that a house in sharp contrast with its surroundings will stand out—Oak Bay’s occasional modernist home illustrates the point. But Oak Bay is also a neighborhood in transition, with older character houses steadily replaced by custom modern designs. Given enough time, those original character homes will be the exceptions rather than the norm.
If you want to set aside the functional purpose of a suite and focus solely on aesthetics, that’s an entirely different discussion. In most debates, when someone pivots like that, it’s a tacit admission that the original premise holds and they’re now hunting for terrain they think they can win on. It’s classic goal‑post shifting.
Stick built prefabs are probaly going to be too expensive to c any real return. Prefab adu’s are too difficult to to put in place with municipal requirements
January 12, 2026
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 74 422
New Listings 310 1,172
Active Listings 2,391 2,396
Difficult to predict January this early only but I am going to guess around 390 sales for the month.
More like an ADU takes up valuable space in your backyard and makes the whole property look cheap if you don’t have a large lot. This one is a pretty good example: https://housesigma.com/bc/sold/map/?status=sold&page=1&with_listing=9w8o3m40bkV7GKjm. Nasty
Before you get too far into planning a basement suite, confirm whether that section of the slab has accessible plumbing, drainage, venting. If it doesn’t, you’re not designing a suite—you’re budgeting for concrete demolition.
I generally prefer the idea of an accessory dwelling unit over carving a suite out of a basement. A suite will almost always come in at a lower upfront cost, but an ADU tends to win on the long‑term fundamentals: stronger rental income, greater flexibility in how the space can be used, and a more meaningful boost to overall property value. In most cases, the ADU is the better long‑horizon investment.
The basement suite leverages existing structure, utilities, and envelope. It’s inexpensive because you’re piggybacking on what already exists. But it’s also constrained by that same structure: ceiling height, egress, natural light, plumbing locations, and the psychological reality that “basement living” will always command a discount.
An ADU, by contrast, is a standalone dwelling with its own identity, its own light, its own privacy, and its own market. It behaves like a small house, not a carved‑out corner of an existing one.
So you were able to jam a kitchen and separate laundry in there?
Only committed half the space to the suite. The other half is a family room and rec area. Primarily, the suite allows for a private inlaw space when needed.
https://www.westernstandard.news/news/vacant-housing-tax-cost-ottawa-nearly-what-it-raised/70166
“Revenue Agency data later showed a steep decline in the number of properties deemed vacant under the program, falling from 6,710 in 2022 to 2,710 in 2024.
Administration of the tax required 351 CRA employees, a level of bureaucracy critics said was excessive given the modest returns.”
lol so like one CRA employee would only process 10 to 20 of these per year? Insane.
Why not just put a nice family room/theater room with a wet bar and a home/gym and office instead? Much nicer and better space than some suite given the structure of your house.
A legal suite makes it easier for a prospective buyer to qualify for a larger mortgage. On the surface, that should mean homes with suites sell for more than homes without them. More qualified buyers with more borrowing power generally push prices upward.
But the effect isn’t universal. Spend five minutes reading the comments on this platform and you’ll see how strong the aversion to tenants can be. That sentiment doesn’t erase the financial advantage of a suite, but it does show that not every buyer is willing to pay a premium for one.
If done properly, building a suite should increase the value and salability of your property. Putting in a swimming pool doesn’t.
Is renting out the suite a part of the reasoning for deciding to put one in? I am putting a suite in without any intent of ever renting it out. I am doing it to add usable space, grandparent accommodations for when they visit (or when they need to live here), and down the road if the kids decide to stay local for college.
Listening to a home owner complaining of the cost to put a suite in their home and that it does not make sense because of the lower rents.
A suite isn’t built to make you rich in year one. It’s built to make your retirement less fragile. The rent today may feel modest, but in ten years when you retire, your mortgage will be smaller, your income will be lower, and that steady rental stream will matter a great deal more. You’re not building a cash machine; you’re building a buffer.
Here is a list I lifted from an article but re-wrote and condensed on the reasons why the Canadian condominium market Is struggling. It wasn’t a bad article but heavily influenced by the construction trade and did not discuss how we got into this shit show in the first place.
• Developers are struggling to secure construction financing as lenders tighten underwriting standards.
• Banks are reassessing project risk and withdrawing support mid‑process.
• Interest rate hikes have pushed borrowing costs to levels that render many projects unprofitable.
• Developers are increasingly filing for creditor protection as liquidity evaporates.
Weak Pre‑Sales and Demand Softness
• Pre‑sales are falling short of the minimum thresholds required to trigger construction financing.
• New condo sales have fallen to their lowest levels in years.
• International buyers—once a major demand pillar—have pulled back significantly.
• The assignment market has collapsed, leaving investors unable to exit early.
Buyer Qualification and Market Value Problems
• Many buyers cannot qualify for mortgages at completion due to higher rates and stricter stress tests.
• Buyer default rates have reached new highs.
• Investors are walking away from deposits when the math no longer works.
• Completed condo values are often lower than original purchase prices, eroding confidence and solvency.
Cost Inflation and Construction Challenges
• Construction costs have risen far beyond original budgets.
• Labour shortages are slowing or halting progress on active sites.
• Insurance and regulatory requirements have become more expensive and more complex.
• Pre‑construction fees and closing costs are surging, further discouraging buyers.
Project Delays, Cancellations, and Feasibility Breakdown
• Delays are pushing projects years behind schedule, compounding cost overruns.
• Project cancellations are increasing nationwide as pro formas no longer pencil out.
• Many proposed developments may never be completed under current market conditions.
Investor and Developer Incentive Erosion
• Rental guarantees, incentives, and promotional offerings are disappearing as margins collapse.
• Investors who once relied on flipping assignments or leveraging cheap credit now face negative cash flow and limited exit options.
2026 is suppose to bring in a lot of changes to lenders and OSFI which will change some of the above.
Well I might trust your opinion of that particular beach over some rando who has never been there
Lol wet season
Thinking about selling one of my properties and buying this Ford GT. I think it’s a better investment.
There’s no point pretending that you ‘mute’ people, when you read and can’t resist replying to their posts anyway.
btw, not just originally from Croatia, I am also licensed in Croatia and regularly hold talks at various conferences and real estate events (in Croatian) – https://youtu.be/7udouyus9iM?si=NddrXJPzUngfScO5&t=4381
I trust people inviting me to these events recognize I know what I am talking about 🙂
Trust neither. If you’re interested, do your own research. You could start with the peer reviewed study I posted done by Croatians about the current problems in Zagreb and elsewhere. (From the journal of housing Netherlands)
My experience has been that many RE agents in Canada are wrong a lot, and I wouldn’t accept what they say about Canadian RE, so I don’t see what’s different if they’re talking about another country.
>>> Victoria based
fwiw, I’m on a beach in the South Pacific now. Does that make me an expert on that?
Had to unmute for a second and I see lack of critical thinking skills is at an all time high. Yes, no one complains about new construction quality in Victoria -> https://www.reddit.com?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2
Literally every other week there is a noise transfer between condo units related post on Reddit Victoria. One from this week.
As far as “The paper concludes that insufficient financial and organisational resources”
context is super important here. My strata fees in Victoria are $807/month. My strata fees in Zagreb are $42/month. Yes, the contingency fund is smaller in Zagreb 🙂
The urban planning is way better here and the individual buildings are way better in Croatia. It is what it is. Not everything is the best in Canada, believe it or not.
Who to trust. RE agent originally from Croatia or Victoria based googler?
Not everyone, but I will if I am suspicious. In another building I own in a short term rental company rented a unit to a drug dealer and it was a huge fiasco involving police and multiple months to get this person out.
I also reject most stay requests. If someone asks for a discount or story doesn’t make sense I automatically decline now. Every guest that has asked for a discount has been a huge pain. One lady from California asked for a discount then claimed it wasn’t clean even thought I had a professional cleaner in the unit for 6 hrs the day before. After I noted 6 hrs of cleaning she said oven wasn’t clean enough and requested $200 off the stay.
The Reddit airbnb hosting page pretty much all hosts agree…most guests asking for discount = redflag. Not worth the risk.
>>>> The quality of new builds in Croatia is far better than here
Not according to people who live there. Lots of problems with new builds in Croatia. Especially when built by low wage foreign temp workers from Nepal and India. Read almost any Reddit thread and you’ll find lots of assessments like this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/askcroatia/comments/1n3xpma/jeste_li_primjetili_sve_više_primjedbi_na_život_u/?tl=en
“10% of new construction is worth something, the rest is worthless. So you have bad quality, crowds, noise, heat, and on top of that you’re in a bad location.”
“The windows are too small compared to the size of the rooms. Thin walls and floors, or almost none. Shoddy construction where moisture seeps through like a sieve. Siphons that don’t have a slope or aren’t there at all. The paint cracks on the edges of the drywall. The windows get stuck, the blinds fall down. Complaints are never or poorly resolved.
You open the window. Ten meters in front is another building or a road full of unmaintained diesels that smoke and stink. Insecure bikers roar between buildings and with pleasure raise the pressure of the residents with noise that resonates between the completely flat surfaces of the outer walls of the two buildings.
Saplings have been planted that don’t have much chance of growing into a large tree in that infrastructure. The thermo-accumulation effect of concrete and asphalt makes summers unbearable.
The heating plant breaks down, so there’s no hot water. Everyone turns on electric stoves and air conditioners to warm up. The whole neighborhood draws too much electricity and the transformer station burns out.”
——===——-
It’s not just Reddit threads about new builds, the Croatian housing problems are pervasive including building maintenance and this is well documented in studies like this:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10901-023-10046-w#:~:text=The%20empirical%20research%20was%20conducted,by%20co%2Downers'%20representatives.
“The paper concludes that insufficient financial and organisational resources, insufficient engagement of managers, inadequate collaboration between representatives and managers, and weak energy renovation of multi-family buildings are some of the most important problems faced by co-owners’ representatives.”
Do you personally screen guests based on criminal records? Interesting
Once you confirm a booking their profile picture and last name is made available.
How did you figure out that person was a known criminal?
Airbnb has been utterly disappointing in that sense. You can’t see the last name or photo of the guest anymore until you confirm the booking. Once I confirmed someone that is a known criminal and when I cancelled Airbnb hit me up with a $900 fee and refused to re-fund me even when I provided publicly available court records. Reading the Reddit forms customer support for hosts is pathetic.
As far as losing the protection if someone decides to stay longer and claim they are in a RTA tenancy not a huge concern given the rent is so inflated compared to long term rental market. If you want to stay at 3x a long term stay rates, go ahead. Haven’t had that happen.
Not much to see, solid concrete. It’s a pain to install anything on partition walls with other units as you hit solid concrete.
The quality of new builds in Croatia is far better than here. This a 2017 yr built parkade in Croatia -> https://youtu.be/IY8KIGMGhCA?si=h_Ef7O8UVvUrDyKP Have yet to see anyone in Canada finishing condo parkades to this level.
The urban planning in Croatia sucks for sure, but the individual buildings themselves are far better. The interior trim around my windows is quartz and that’s pretty standard. In Canada you get Vinyl or MDF in a spec built condo building. Windows are also so much better in Europe, etc.
How is your rotted out deck repair coming along?
You should see what’s behind drywall in Croatia.
There is also a big off-platform market for travel nurses in Victoria. You do lose the protection that come with the platforms though.
I spent time as an electrician’s apprentice, and once you’ve seen a few basements with the drywall stripped off, you stop assuming anything behind a finished wall is safe. When there’s no inspection and no oversight, people will splice wires by hand, bury junction boxes where no one will ever find them, skip marrettes, skip connectors, skip staples—skip everything except the risk. They’ll overload breakers with a dozen outlets, and treat grounding as optional. Behind the drywall, it can be an absolute disaster zone.
Problem is when over-regulation restricts online supply people get creative. I see all the time on FB pages and WhatApp groups posting needing short term rental accommodation.
Why are >90% of suites in older homes illegal? The process to put in a legal suite is too complicated and expensive.
Definitely, tourism worked before even the landline, let alone Airbnb. But nowadays people are a lot less likely to write the tourist office asking for a list of rentals, and a lot more likely to go online.
https://realestatemagazine.ca/newmarket-area-real-estate-agent-charged-with-voyeurism-after-alleged-incident-at-clients-home/?utm_source=REM+Inbox+Update&utm_campaign=a849d32478-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2026_01_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-a849d32478-61017017
A lot of my stays are now off platform. I just exchange contact info with guests and when they come back we do it off Airbnb to save on the fees.
I know in my father’s tiny village 40 years ago people were fully booked with German tourists and there were no cellphones, no email, and certainly no platforms, and the German tourists didn’t speak any Croatian and the locals spoke very little German beyond “zimmer” (room in German). Yet somehow it worked 🙂
It took the government forever to realize that AirBnB investors were driving up prices creating a difficult market for younger buyers and renters. Don’t expect them to turn on a dime. Governments are known for overshooting on the upside and downside.
Groot now you’re coming around . All markets should be the Wild West , that’s how u make money .
Basically Patrick you want a free and open market place with minimal government intervention.
While the COV would be able to ask the province to remove STR restrictions if vacancy rate >3% for two years, I don’t see them actually doing that.
There is very little support for STR rentals, other than from STR owners. The typical Victorian is happy to stay in a STR when they travel, but is strongly opposed to a STR next door, or anywhere close to them. And renters would be thrilled to see vacancy rates >3%, and wouldn’t like to see them fall again.
I’d be in favour of restoring the STR areas, but other than svr owners, I wouldn’t expect many people to agree with me.
fwiw, I’m also in favour of removing spec tax, and allowing foreigners and others to buy second homes. This would encourage new housing starts, generally help the economy, and prevent the construction collapse that we will see if vacancy rates stay high.
Speaking of STR and Mount Washington. I’ve noticed a dip in short term rentals at Washy (even though it is allowed provincially and by the regional district). A few people I have talked to have basically “gone dark” on the STR front. They’ll rent to family and friends and maybe friends of friends but not publicly. This may be legal (“The Act applies to short-term rentals being offered to the public”) but will likely escape notice anyhow as enforcement is primarily through platforms.
If you want to use the unit yourself and only occasionally rent this could make sense. Full time STR you are going to need the platforms, the public offer and therefore the provincial and CVRD registration.
Assessment
+2% Victoria SFH,
-5% Mount Washington strata unit
Not surprising to see a dip at Washy. Recreation property is often the first to weaken and inventory has built up a little there albeit from stupidly low levels. Also prices there have been on a multiyear tear. After a terrible season in 2013-14 prices on the hill were little changed since 1995. Then from 2014 to 2024 things went on a multi-year tear going up 2.5 times in price
I’d echo what Marko said. The STR restrictions were/are popular. Witness the number of smaller communities that voluntarily opted into the STR restrictions (principal residence restriction). Easy way for local governments to show they are “doing something” on affordability. So I wouldn’t count on the Victoria restrictions coming off easily or soon unless there was a real change in the makeup of council and maybe not even then.
Think of relaxation of STR rules as a possible future bonus, not something to be banked on in the near term.
Thanks for the feedback on my son’s condo and STR ban.
Hurrah! I tried to post last year but I don’t think it worked. Or it could’ve been because I’m just a birdbrain.
Test
From what I hear, there’s gona be another big round of cuts before the budget announcement. We’ll see what else gets announced during budget time 😉
The current congress is setting records for least productive (in terms of legislation passed. So if something requires legislation to happen I wouldn’t bet on it. That said if Trump’s idea of banning institutional investors from owning SFHs gets attached to either a popular piece of bipartisan legislation or a must pass budget bill then it could happen.
In terms of calls aging well your repeated predictions of widespread RTO for the public service haven’t happened and from what I hear the prov gov’t is still in full on RE downsizing mode. On the other hand your STR call from a few years ago was more or less spot on.
VicREanalyst must have gotten kicked off of facebook and needs a place to release his boomer rants. Try deep breathing, or even talking to a real person every once in a while.
LOL, why would anyone be stung by a post full of verified lies?
VicRE was a little stung by Maggie’s post yesterday and has been on a tear since.
I’ve certainly stopped buying rental condos and won’t buy any going forward, but unlike a lot of people I am not selling either. Admittedly, a part of that is I don’t want to pay capital gains. However, I am really curious as to how the shift to purpose built rentals plays out in the next 10 years. There is a very strong possibility we see a 10 year span of no brand new condo completions downtown. Will people be content to rent or will people still want to own and will the lack of condo supply lead to recovery? Difficult to say, but I am willing to wait it out to see what happens.
100% agree with you on this front. I think vacancy will have to go up a huge amount like 6 or 7% of the STR ban to be relaxed. The problem is politically the ban is wildly popular and while vacancy is going up rents are still very expensive; therefore, plenty of reason for people to still be upset. People on Facebook/Reddit are now upset that purpose-built rentals are sitting with vacant inventory which is a mind boggling reason to be upset (as a renter). They should be happy the there is vacant inventory as that puts downward pressure or prices.
I’ve had overwhelming success with 30 to 60 day stints in my personal residence thanks to the ban. I somehow became an AirBnb super host. I’ve thought about converting one of my long term rental units to a 90 day furnished stint unit when a tenant moves out, but don’t know if I want to add more work. Long term tenants can be very easy at times, sometimes I don’t hear or see them for years.
On a side note, despite all the negative media attention towards “dog crate” condos my best performing rental unit, by far, continues to be a 380 sq.ft. studio downtown without parking. Bottom end of the market so rents way better per square foot than anything else I own, no trouble renting it out either. Super low strata fees, low property taxes, one baseboard heater for entire unit (no maintenance), etc.
Douglas treaty in Vic no need for land acknowledgement , all good
How come there isn’t a land acknowledgement before your posts?
I suppose that you’ve also familiar with the term blowhard
(someone who boasts arrogantly and loves to show off their accomplishments or importance)
There was no heated debate though, just another low IQ liberal getting put in their place via facts.
Do you even know the word conciliatory?
(it is an adjective: intended to calm or pacify. i.e. After the heated debate, the politician adopted a conciliatory tone, hoping to foster a spirit of cooperation.
That’s what happens when people who should otherwise be cooking and cleaning gets a hold of the Internet.
Peter don’t forget the hidden trap of GST on the sale of STR condos
https://rsmcanada.com/insights/tax-alerts/2025/the-hidden-tax-trap-on-condo-sales.html
Speak to an accountant about the recent 2025 Federal Court of Appeal decision
You said it was a 600 square feet condominim. I wouldn’t sell unless a better investment presented itself.
Geez, you almost wouldn’t think this is a housing blog in another country some days.
Imo this is very likely, the vacancies will continue to be high given all the PBR breaking ground and a slow down/reverse in immigration. The STR is a revenue generator and I can see Victoria and the Province tapping into that in the future. I would keep it and ride it out especially if it’s paying for itself anyways.
How about something more practical like mind your own business, keep some distance and not interfere with what they are doing?
Nope apparently she left behind a wife….
I have a question about this – it’s a live scenario. Our son bought a unit in Chinatown maybe 6-7 years ago, about 600 square feet, no parking, loft unit with nice brick walls etc. Rented it out on Air BnB until the STR rental ban, and since then has rented it for 90 day stints, reasonably successfully (I think he’s only had a single one-month vacancy since then). The unit was in a grandfathered (no more) building though I know that’s now irrelevant.
Anyways, the question is whether to hold on or try to sell now. It slightly more than carries itself.
In a way, even at current low price, the unit has served its purpose, in the sense that (a) it’s very likely still worth more than he paid, even net of commission, and (b) crucially, it provided significant income at a time when he really needed it. So it still comes out “ok” even if he sells at current price.
Simple question is whether to hold on waiting/hoping for a recovery. If that were just dependent on overall Victoria condo market, the risk/reward trade-off might still favour just selling and deploying funds elsewhere. But obviously the STR ban coming off would be a major positive, but I’m wondering how likely that really is? My understanding is that if the vacancy rate is above 3% for 2 years, Victoria could choose to opt out of the STR ban, but do people think Victoria would actually do that? My belief was the STR ban is very popular and that Victoria council is not really likely to move proactively in the other direction?
Thanks for input.
Interesting video. Looks to me like that first shot was totally justified, the SUV was coming right at him. But then as she’s trying her getaway to the right and he’s off to the side clearly safe, looks like he leans in to shoot twice more when he’s in no danger at all.
I get the fact that in the heat of the moment (which was caused by her), it’s hard to turn off instinct.
I’m a big fan of Darwin too, in jest & in theory. Unfortunately for that theory, many dead people have already begat offspring, including Renee Good, who has left a husband and a six year old son.
Another unfortunate situation is the prevalence masked & armed state agents on the street in America, and I have a credo for that too:
If there are hoards of masked & armed state agents on the street, you are in the wrong part of town.
She could have demonstrated her non compliance in a number of ways, she chose to accelerate her SUV towards an armed federal agent telling her to get out, that is as stupid as it gets. Couple weeks ago someone else got shot be ICE for doing something very similar.
Yes indeed. She oughta known better. Comply or die isn’t that hard to figure out.
So you expect the agent to look at which way the wheel is turned and then ball park their distance from the vehicle to calculate the probability of getting struck in less than a second? Maybe the driver could have done the smart thing which is to stop, get out of the car when being requested by multiple armed federal agents. This is just darwinism at work, people like this have a higher chance of being eliminated from the gene pool prematurely anyways, today just happened to be her day.
And power hungry, armed men kill -that’s the natural order of things in a fledgling police state.
The 3rd ICE agent would NOT have been hit by the car, her wheels were turned hard to the right and he was off to the left of her left fender. If that ICE agent was in line to get hit by the car, shooting the driver at close range wouldn’t have made any difference…and he didn’t get hit, hell, he didn’t even jump out of the way.
He shot to stop her, not self defence.
I work on the institutional investment side and this is being taken seriously. We will see how your call ages in a couple of months.
Nope, stupid people get killed and here is the video: https://x.com/i/status/2008970974264479911
Turn the audio on, the woman in the background symbolizes what is wrong with society.
You got people calling this murder when they should really be scrubbing the washroom before going downtown to protest some random cause half a world away.
Immigration enforcement is a totally legitimate function of government of course. Every single modern US president has presided over tens of thousands of deportations. But Donald and Kristi are determined to turn enforcement into theatre where the intimidation and violence are not side effects but are the main point. And then people get hurt…or killed
My apologies.
With the current dysfunctional Republican Congress very low chance of that happening, so pretty much a nothingburger
The upvotes your posts fairly consistently get suggest that your occasional visits to Mansplainia are well appreciated.
RE: ICE actions:
The total lack of moral justification and propaganda to hide blatant breaches of international law has a dangerous consequence. That lack of lawfulness and moral clarity will creep from international relations into domestic issues.
I wasn’t being sarcastic…this place needs you (and your sharp tongue).
Sorry to butt in on your mansplaining circle jerk. I’ll toddle off to the kitchen now and let you clear-sighted menfolk call each other “retard” some more.
Too bad none of that is going to help her get from the Westshore to the core.
Do you even know what murder means?
The only low-IQ Canadians are people like you who live off of other people’s tax dollars. How’s that Vancouver island housing market group going? Lol
Glad to see you’re still around with your sharp tongue and clear-sightedness.
No, he didn’t. He threatened to do it. Which is just his way of shaking down somebody for a kickback.
Meanwhile, an ICE agent murdered a woman in Minneapolis today, Kristi Noem is already lying about what happened, and low-IQ Canadians still have a hard-on for being the 51st state.
Hold your enthusiasm…Donald Trump has not enacted a ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes (SFHs). He has, however, announced a plan to call on Congress to pass legislation that would codify such a ban
https://www.wytv.com/news/local-news/trump-announces-plan-to-ban-institutional-home-buyers/
Trump just banned institutional investors from buying SFHs.
Patrick – I feel like this is not apples to apples. The missing middle units are a mix of small apartments and 2/3BR units. To my mind the 3BR units are what set the MM stuff apart.
Difficult market in Vancouver -> https://realestatemagazine.ca/metro-vancouver-home-sales-plunge-to-lowest-level-since-the-90s/
Interesting how stable Victoria has been in relation to rest of Canada.
Noticed that residential contractors are stepping up their advertisement.
The condominium market in Greater Victoria has held up better than most mainland cities, but it has never been truly independent of Vancouver. Historically, Victoria follows Vancouver’s trajectory with a lag, and in a national environment defined by oversupply and an investor pullback, it’s unlikely to remain insulated for long.
Not all units will feel the pressure equally. The most vulnerable are the investor‑oriented condos that have steadily shrunk in size over the past decade. These smaller units were designed for yield rather than livability, and in a market shifting back toward end‑users, they’re losing their appeal. Larger, more functional homes—those that can actually accommodate families—are positioned to fare far better.
When I had my roof replaced by Parker Johnson they would not give a guaranty if there was a roof installed over an existing roof. The metal roof may last 50 years but what’s the condition of the roof underneath?
The key issue is structural load, hidden damage, and reduced inspectability. Most building codes allow at most two layers, but insurers and lenders often treat a second layer as a red flag because it obscures the roof’s true condition.
https://www.lowestrates.ca/resource-centre/home-insurance/does-my-roof-affect-home-insurance-rates-canada
My insurance company was good with the estimated age from the home inspection report (from the purchase) that gave an estimate on the remaining life of the roof as well.
The real point being that the STR ban will be coming off and right now is a good opportunity to get into some of those previously transient zoned downtown condos at a discount.
Based on personal observations I have to agree.
Have you tried Google Street View or CRD Maps (satellite aerial)?
Not really unless previous owner left a receipt (and assuming the previous owner did the work and not the owner previous to them).
You can get a ballpark age from an inspector/roofer.
How do I find the age of my roof?
The house is 55 years old but the roof is newer metal shingles installed over another roof. They are supposed to be “lifetime” 50yr shingles from the research I’ve done on the material but I cannot find who installed them.
The city doesn’t have it on record and it’s not noted at all in my home inspection and nothing was disclosed when I bought. I believe it was installed by the 2nd previous owner, who has died. I’ll contact the previous owner but I already assume they don’t know. Is there anywhere this would be recorded? Can a new home inspection for the purpose of getting just this information actually date the roof? Do roofers do this?
Insurance has given me 1 year to provide this info to them. (What’s the “oldest it can be” to be insured? Should I even bother with an inspection.) Ty!
Who needs missing middle? Unit numbers and impact for core Victoria rentals for a single development like Harris Green are much higher than all of missing middle.
Missing middle housing starts in Greater VIctoria are up from 2020, but most (69%) are in westshore,
2020: 356 missing middle units started
2024: 459
2025: 562
So we’re up 206 units/year from 2020. That’s something.
But 69% of the missing middle starts are in Langford/Colwood.
That leaves only 174 missing middle units starts in core Victoria in 2025. We would get more than that from one or two apartment towers. Harris Green will be bringing 1,500 units to core Victoria if/when fully developed (500 units done by 2028, then 1,000 more started in 2028+). That’s equivalent to 8+ years of missing middle housing core Victoria starts at the current rate, just from one development . In terms of core Victoria units added,
Harris Green will be adding more core Victoria units than all missing middle combined (for next 8+ years) . And Harris green does it professionally, without all the whining about DCC’s/costs for soil testing, tree management etc. and that will add 1,500 purpose built core Victoria rentals – something that will really move the needle for available housing.
https://www.vrba.ca/news/housing-starts-up-20-year-to-date-nov-down-14/
The point being… With huge PBR unit numbers like this coming, there’s not much need for missing middle, and we don’t need municipalities /gov’t to make accommodations for them like financing, variances and lower DCC fees etc.
I call b.s. on that. researchers must have used a bunch of lower income people for this study.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/01/06/smaller-houses-happier-lives/
Interesting article from the Washington post. Notwithstanding the wording of the URL the findings aren’t that smaller homes make you happier but rather that there is a very weak link between housing size and happiness.
Marginal benefit to increasing size:
“This aligns with previous research: After crossing a minimum threshold of space for safety and comfort, every new bedroom or second floor yields less and less benefit. A brief spike in housing satisfaction from moving into “larger accommodations” produces no durable effects on overall life satisfaction. It may even erode it.”
Comparison is the happiness killer:
“In his 2024 peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Public Economics, the assistant professor at Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands found that just the presence of bulky domiciles down the street virtually erased any satisfaction people gained from moving into their own bigger homes. “Larger homes do not increase well-being per se,” Bellet wrote me. “What matters most is how close [the size of one’s house] is to the largest houses in the neighborhood.””
Household size matters:
“Leyva analyzed data from tens of thousands of households in Mexico and Europe. He found that people living alone report the most satisfaction with their financial lives. But when it comes to overall happiness, the happiest households had about four to six people in them, regardless of home size.”
neighbourhood important:
“That aligns with findings from a 2023 study of the Vancouver metro area: Researchers found no significant differences in well-being between people living in single detached homes, duplexes, townhouses, laneway houses and apartment buildings (basement units smaller than 300 square feet were the only negative exception). What did people say they missed most in their neighborhood? Affordability, proximity to family and friends, and a sense of community. Home design was eighth on the list.”
Condos are not different than SFH, location is paramount. Humboldt valley and vic west continues to outperform other areas of downtown and surrounding areas by far.
This is why the majority of my rental units are in Vic West. When the market is hot everything rents/sells, but when things slow having a rental in a solid building and desirable location helps.
100% in 10 years the reddit threads will be “why is most available housing rentals owned by large corporations that increase my rent the max allowable every year.”
I also think in 10 years when a buyer phones me looking for a downtown condo the newest condo building will be 13 years old. There is nothing condo even rumored downtown right now and these things take 5 years from announcements to keys.
Like I said, stay away from the Westshore if you can!
It’s gotta be hard for the mom-n-pop landlord with an undesirable basement suite/location, if they are competing with 1000s of new purpose built rentals. Likely need to accept some combination of lower rent and lower quality tenants. Or just stop renting and use the space themselves.
Condominiums will recover their appeal, but the process won’t be instantaneous. Sentiment, inventory, and rates all move on their own timelines, and the market only rebalances once those pieces align. And even then, the engine doesn’t turn over without investors. You need pre‑sales to finance a tower, and investors don’t return on hope—they return after seeing a couple of years of rising rents, absorption rates, and rising prices. Until that pattern re‑establishes itself, the market stays in a holding pattern.
Dropped the rent
Thank you hhv for input, wish me luck on solid tenants
Don’t listen to that bs, condos will always get built. Lmao, this guy just doesn’t miss when it comes to being flat out wrong each and every time.
Groot , could very well be the future where whole generations are just renters . If your right and condos don’t get built then in a few years there might be a lot of buyers chasing after very few if any new builds . Huge price pressure
It’s becoming harder to say with any confidence whether buying a condominium is more appealing than renting a new purpose‑built rental. Renters increasingly favour PBRs for their stability and quality, while would‑be buyers are delaying ownership because of affordability.
What I’m noticing — and what many buyers quietly admit — is a growing reluctance to purchase a condo that could decline in value while carrying costs rise year after year. At the same time, the price gap between condos and detached homes keeps widening. The irony is hard to ignore: a disciplined renter may end up in a stronger position to buy a house sooner than the condo owner who thought they were taking the “first step” on the property ladder.
Twenty years ago, the choice was a new condo or a tired 1970s apartment. A condo then was the only way to secure dignity, stability, and contemporary housing standards. People weren’t buying condos because they were good investments; they were buying them because the rental alternative was visibly worse.
Today, the new PBRs have flipped that equation: the rental option is often the higher‑quality product, while the “starter condo” is the compromise.
That entire structure has inverted.
Yep, it’s all just a guess and as we have all figured out stats and data mean squat when it comes to predictions
Whatever greases your rails Thursty.
Groot, that kinda ignores the fact people would like to own their digs and new is a lot more appealing than old . Developers will switch back to developments for sale as quick as they can . It’s a much better business model than building rentals
Several developments in Victoria and Esquimalt are already in construction, which is the strongest indicator that the region is still committed to expanding purpose‑built rental stock for the immediate future.
I suspect that PBRs will be the dominant form of multifamily construction in the core for the rest of this decade. While our vacancy rate has increased I suspect that the rate in Victoria will continue to remain below the national average. Contractors will just factor in a higher vacancy rate in their decision making process.
Lowering DCCs would be helpfull and if they were fixed or indexed that would relieve some of the uncertainity in building. DCC cost over runs would therefore be transfered off the builder and on to the tax base.
It’s going to be really difficult to get condo projects off the ground even if they allow foreign buyers, etc.
I think the best bet to keep housing starts up would be to cut DCCs for rental projects for the time being just to keep construction moving ahead.
I’m guessing going forward new rental projects will be tailing off this year and we might see some changes coming to get new condo projects moving again
Victoria Real Estate Board
January 5th, 2026
Month Jan Jan
Year 2026 2025
New Unconditional Sales 12 422
New Listings 52 1,172
Active Listings 2,314 2,396
Victoria’s home prices have shown a small year over year increase while cities on the mainland have posted declines.
Relative to other cities in BC. I give Victoria a passing report card for the year.
The ownership market can absorb turbulence because its fundamentals—scarcity, geography, and long‑standing desirability—are structural.
The rental market has no such buffer. When rents weaken, the effects ripple outward: investor math deteriorats, purpose‑built rental pipelines slow, and the broader price environment loses some of its underlying support.
In other words, Victoria’s stability this year is real, but it rests on a foundation with a visible fault line. The rental market is the weakest link in the chain.