November: Zigzag market continues
The market has not been able to make up its mind on where to go in recent months, strengthening for a month or two just to swing weaker again the following month. November was down 18% in sales from this time last year, but that’s not the whole story. Though detached sales dropped a little from October’s excellent result, houses and condo sales are still on opposite trends, with condos extending the bumpy slide they’ve been on for around a year.
New listings continue to slide from recent highs, but it’s very gradual. We’re still pretty healthy on new list activity in a historical context. Of course in December don’t expect a lot of actual new listings to come. The opportunistic sellers have pulled their properties, so the people who are listing now are more likely to be motivated sellers. If you’re still looking, it’s not a bad time.
Inventory is dropping as it always does this time of year, but seasonally adjusted it’s stable. The trend has not moved a lot in 6 months, but we saw a similar flat period in 2024. Too early to say if we’re rounding out the top for this cycle or will move up again in the new year. We’re still a ways below the inventory levels we reached in 2012/2013.
With weak sales in November, the market cooled a bit, forming that zigzag pattern we’ve seen for much of the year.
Combining the two measures also shows that the market cooled off a little from October, erasing all the gains from November and back to where we were in September, on the cool side of balanced.
Prices little changed in November, though townhouses seem to have erased their 2025 price bump. Overall, balanced market means roughly stable prices, and we are into the fourth year of those in Victoria.
Victoria’s labour market is doing a lot better than most of Canada, but the short term outlook is still pretty negative. Government has been on a hiring freeze for months now to try and get the budget under control, but rumblings are that the freeze isn’t enough and more layoffs are coming with the spring budget. It’s not that there’s likely to be so many unemployed to significantly impact what people can buy, but that kind of environment puts a big dent into consumer confidence, which is a massive driver of market activity. Right now the economic news is decidedly dour, and it’s impacting the market segments that are driven by younger buyers disproportionately.
It’s gotta be hard for the mom-n-pop landlord with an undesirable basement suite/location, if they are competing with 1000s of new purpose built rentals. Likely need to accept some combination of lower rent and lower quality tenants. Or just stop renting and use the space themselves.
100% exactly what I do, i realize this is easier when you are cashflow positive regardless by a decent margin. For example, carrying costs on one of my rental house is about 3500 a month (mortgage, property tax and maintenance), Doesn’t really matter to me if I rent it out for 5500 or 5k as long as I have good tenants that pay rent.
PBR and commercial properties are different as the valuation of the property is driven by the rents/leases so owners are somewhat forced to keep the prices high.
Rents have definitively dropped in the last year and there is further downward pressure. An all time record for purpose-built rental construction (and a record by a wide margin) combined with a first ever BC population decrease. There are 1000s of purpose-built rental units that are going to hit the market on the Westshore and many are already offering one or two months’ free. I see most are now installing A/C and other touches you typically don’t find in a basement suite.
I had to re-rent two of my units last year and a bedroom in my parents’ suite and probably the toughest rental market I’ve seen in 10+ years which makes sense as vacancy is at a 26 year high. A room in my parents suite I use to get 50+ messages in an hour and this time around it was super slow. However, I undercut the competition by approx. 10% and has no issues finding great tenants for all three places. One of my tenants moved out after 4+ years and I was able to re-rent for $350 more per month even with undercutting the competition.
Personally, I am happy to see rents coming down. I have a number of immigrant friends from Croatia that are having a tough time saving anything for a down payment as the cost of living including rents is so high.
My only concern is with rents coming down purpose-built rental construction will slow. I think this is the time to keep building and the government could help by waiving DCCs, etc., for purpose-built rentals. Waiving the GST and other policies certainly has helped.
I guess you could charge them a percentage of your hydro bill, etc., but fundamentally you just need to drop the asking rent. Difficult time of year to rent but vacancy is climbing so there will be more and more competition going forward. Personally, I am fan of no vacancy (as a small time landlord) versus chasing higher rent. Very difficult to make up a couple of months of vacancy with a higher rent amount.
Most tenants won’t move unless the rent differential is large enough to justify the hassle. The friction costs—truck rental, time off work, deposits, cleaning fees—are real, and people avoid them unless they’re forced.
One way to make your suite stand out without reducing the asking rent is to offer a modest moving credit. Even something like a $500 contribution toward moving expenses can shift the equation for a tenant. It reduces their upfront burden, and positions your unit ahead of competing listings that expect tenants to shoulder all the transition costs.
I’m guessing it’s the time of the year, having said that I havnt rented a suite in 30 years so I’m not much help lol
Go look at the comps on FB market place and see if you are inline or not.
Happy new year! Our suite is vacant and I’ve never had such low interest from prospective tenants. I’ve also never tried to rent it out in Dec/Jan. 2 bedroom Colwood $2200 all-in, we haven’t raised the rent in 4 years through multiple tenants but I am getting close to 0 messages this time and none desirable. Is anyone in the same boat? We have always included all utilities but I am considering listing it at a lower rent with utilities a flat additional rate or lowering the all-in amount. Is it the time of year or how much have rents dropped?
Don’t care.
Still would be much better off than listening to your wait for the housing crash advice over the past 15 years. That would have been fatal to many.
At least you’re acknowledging the tension between right and wrong. Others in this space dispense with even that pretense and simply bulldoze past the ethical implications.
Not really, that is just a weak attempt to assert jingoism into a discussion to frame alternatives to your flawed perspective as wrong by attempting to link it to an American way of doing things.
Historically, Canadians have been less litigious than Americans, but we’ve always been more regulated. That’s the trade‑off: fewer lawsuits because we rely on a permitting and inspection framework to keep the worst problems from reaching the courts. Remove that framework and buyers are left with one remedy — litigation — which is the most expensive, slowest, and least predictable form of “quality control” .
You’re missing the balance, the system when it makes itself too cumbersome that pushes people outside it and thereby loses its legitimacy. It needs to efficient enough whereby people participate willingly instead of through fear of punishment. This construct of the Byzintine or Victorian bureaucracies creates the issues of driving economies underground. The idea to regulate everything and manage too much ends in failure.
How’s the Victoria real estate crash going?
The moment you decide to operate outside the rules, you’ve entered a marketplace populated by people who are perfectly comfortable doing the same. Once you step outside the permit system, you lose the protections the system provides.
That’s where the real asymmetry lies.
You may think you’re being a “little crook.”
But the people you hire may be professionals at it.
And they hold the leverage, because they know you can’t call the city without implicating yourself.
So once that illegal suite is done and half the outlets don’t work and the breakers trip when you use a toaster – well that’s your problem now. Crooks don’t give guaranties.
This is the folk‑logic people tell themselves when they want to rationalize cutting corners. It’s not the law’s logic, and it’s not the city’s logic. It’s the psychology of someone trying to square their conscience with their convenience. People convince themselves that:
“It’s just a small thing.”
“Everyone does it.”
“It’s too expensive to do it properly.”
“The city won’t notice.”
“The neighbour won’t care.”
Until the day the property sells, or the inspector shows up, or the insurance adjuster asks a pointed question.
I don’t think the average person understands just how insane and idiotic the permitting process has become.
Let’s say you want to add a bathroom in the basement of your older home, this is just one of many things that gets triggered.
i/ Plumbing inspector does a fixture load calculation and notes your 1/2” line which has been adequately servicing the house for 70 years now needs to be upgraded to a 1” line. Well there is 20k+ ($6,500 COV fee for new 25 mm connection, $10,000 soil sample testing, $5,000 trenching and plumbing work on your own property, etc.).
reality is if the 1/2” line was left as is most owners wouldn’t have an issue and if they did who cares, their problem having low pressure with multiple showers going at once.
Keep in mind even if no permit is required in a regional district, you still have to write the BC Housing owner-builder exam. Talk about non-sense over regulation!
Are you for real?
1) No one “builds a house” without a permit at least not in the city. In rural areas sure. There are actually lots of rural areas where the regional district does not even offer the building permit service.
2) A good contractor will be happy to help you get permits for your planned work but they are also happy to advise you if work is low risk to do without a permit. A good contractor might steer clear of an unpermitted job where they figure there is 100% chance of being stopped.
3) When municipal bylaws are insane you are not a “crook” for bypassing them. You are simply making a risk reward decision. Helping my neighbour cut a few branches off her protected tree does not make me a crook. My neighbour who occasionally leaves an unattached boat trailer on our street for a few hours at a time- also not a crook. My other neighbour who ocassionally uses a bit of Roundup very sparingly on some pernicious weeds – another non crook
The fact that those two associate the quality of the work with it being “permitted” or not just shows you their level of knowledge and competence when it comes to RE. Clowns still exist in 2026 unfortunately.
I’ll post my current permitting saga here once it comes to conclusion. Spoiler CoV permitting is both insane and incompetent.
Unless you are doing very substantial alterations that affect your houses exterior I would strongly avoid permitting in CoV. Get a sense of your neighbours. Obviously if you are feuding with neighbours and they hate you then your hands are tied as you don’t want to risk a stop work order. When we made some minor non-permitted renovations some years ago I talked to several neighbours. One of my immediate neighbours told me – “Please don’t bring permit staff down our street”.
A couple of houses on our street have had massive unpermitted renovations conducted by their handyman owners (one a carpenter, the other an engineer). We are talking significant ground floor additions and huge dormers, and inside one of the houses everything taken down to the studs.
We have actually had people on this blog say exactly that. For me I’d prefer the certainty of lower taxes over the potential of more on a future sale to a hypothetical stupid buyer who bases their offer heavily on the BC Assessment.
You seem very confused. Having permitted, inspected and approved work doesn’t mean the worksite was safe when they were doing the work. It also doesn’t mean the that work was well done or of high quality.
Last year I challenged one of my assessment and had it lowered $300k (I asked for $700k less). I think this year I am going to challenge 3 or 4.
Timing is important here. This would have been a $800k home in 2014.
You also need a place to live and that is 2.3% tax free, assuming it is your principal residence.
Here is my take on permits. I remember going with my father 27 or 28 years ago down to COV City Hall to pull a permit for a deck. My father (a naval architect) had drawn the deck; however, the city inspector was not happy with his drawing(s) and also wanted a professional survey and a few other things. Going through the permitting process would have added $3,000 at the time. My parents built the deck without a permit. That $3,000 in an index fund is now over $30,000. Also, 28 years of paying less property taxes as BC Assessments collects permit info (a permitted deck would have increased their assessment).
Finally, if my parents were to sell the house they would disclose “deck built 28 years ago without a permit.” No buyer would care as the deck is now weathered and will likely need to be re-built in the next 10 years or so.
Long story short…what would have been the benefit of a permit?
As a real estate agent for the most part lack of permits doesn’t impact market value. Context is important here. If you just finished a $800,000 renovation lifting a house you better have a permit, otherwise it will present issues on the sale. However, “suite put in 20 years ago without a permit,” no one cares.
I also haven’t noticed a huge difference in permitted work versus non-permitted work. Often you come across crap permitted work and outstanding non-permitted work.
Dude: Why are permits required in the first place? To ensure work is done to safety standards. I didn’t say they were the same.
Do you really expect a couple of imaginary appraisers and landlords to understand what happens in real life?
Dude, permits and WCB safety rules and requirements are vastly different things. As for permits on work sites, it eventually comes down to the owner, developer or general contractor to ensure the work is permitted if they want it to be. If you want your plumber or electrician to have a permit, you ask them to pull a permit. Generally, electricians always will pull a permit for liability reasons, plumbers are another story.. Gas fitters need to pull a gas permit so that Fortis can hook up. Also the permit requirements change from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and if you can technically call something a repair (usually no permits needed) or new install (permit needed). Mostly in the end, it comes down to what your own insurance will accept and your comfort level and knowledge.
Are there fines for licensed trades if they are caught doing unpermitted work? I know that roofers can face steep fines if workers are not using proper harness equipment.
licensed but unpermitted is the kind of argument people use when they want the appearance of standards without the inconvenience of actually meeting them.
I assume that someday you’re going to want to flog this property to someone?
Nah, that guy doesn’t have any experience outside of chat gpt. Even that he probably only uses the free one and is too cheap to pay for the plus version. 100% agree with licensed subs doing un-permitted work and cash jobs.
Thursty, I don’t see why anyone would want to work for someone that has shown themselves to be a crook by building a house without permits.
50 South Turner sold for close to $200,000 under assessment. I guess they were paying too much property tax.
Happy new years folks!
Just noticed 50 South Turner sold for $1.48m (sale in oct). Last sold in 2016 for $1.2m. That’s around a 2.3% return rate over the last decade. Pretty abysmal.
BC Assessment does test and report on the reliability of the assessment roll, and it has done so for many years.
https://info.bcassessment.ca/about/Publications/2007%20Annual%20Report%20appendix%20a.pdf
It is intended to do that. Municipalities require that in order to assess property taxes.
With property taxes as high as they are now, the unreliability of the assessments is becoming more of a problem.
It is telling that they won’t release the formula they use.
Real world, a sub trade doesn’t care if a job gets slapped with a stop work order. They will grab their tools and be somewhere else the next day . I’m going to say u have never been on a work site as this is pretty much the reality
So is a Stop Work Order.
Groot, pretty much any licensed contractor will do non permitted work . Not only that , I will also say that if they’re licensed they will do to code. Folks don’t get permits because dealing with the muni is bloody painful.
When someone says they had a “professional renovation” but didn’t pull permits, what they’re really saying is something much simpler:
Someone who wasn’t licensed did the work, and nobody inspected it.
That’s a good point – though this dude seems like he wouldn’t get a permit on anything if his life depended on it, haha. I think I will just leave this be. Our own assessment is pretty close to market, so it’s ok.
January 1st, 2026
Month Dec Dec
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 367 421
New Listings 401 431
Active Listings 2,544 2,291
Slow finish to the year and heading into next year with a lot of headwinds and a 10+ year high in inventory. Leo, if reading, are we doing predictions this year? 🙂
I don’t know if this applies to Victoria, but if you’ve pulled any permits on your property, indicating improvements, your assessment will increase the next year. Check with your neighbor to see if they did so last year.
No, Peter — I’ve never claimed that assessments are a science. In fact, I’ve been saying the opposite.
“Homeowners routinely put far too much weight on their BC Assessment notice.”
“The assessment roll was never designed to determine the market value of any individual property.”
” Viewed through that lens, the benchmark isn’t meant to deliver precision at the parcel level”
And there are countless reasons why one property’s change will diverge from the neighbourhood average.
On the ground, the variation is obvious. In the same area you’ll see homes selling at 80% of assessed value and others at 120%. I inspect hundreds of properties a year, and the first question I’m asked is always the same: “How does the assessed value compare to market value?” The answer is simple: individually, it can be wildly off; across a couple of thousand properties, it averages out.
But we now live in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence. And assessments are a key input in the AI algorithms lenders use to determine loan amounts. When that initial input is off, the loan amount is off.
I think everyone understands that, but it doesn’t go to the heart of the issue, which is that assessments are often pretty arbitrary on an individual basis, and we should all watch them carefully, challenging the system where appropriate. That’s the take-away that resonates with me.
I have had various first-hand experiences with how arbitrary the assessments can be, as I’m sure many of us have.
Most recent example was today. Checked our assessment, up 5%, hmm… Checked our next-door neighbour (yes, I do that), that poor guy is up 14% in one year – and that’s in one bad year – with no structural improvements done to his property. Neighbour across the street went up 0%. It’s as clear as mud.
I think the issue I have with some of your posts is that they make assessment sound like it’s a science and it’s anything but.
It helps if you know what end of a hammer to hold.
Are you sure you are an appraiser?
Thanks!
This is for the extra space now. Since I framed it out, leveled the floor and did the insulating, I am willing to pay someone else for the drywall if it’s reasonable enough. As for liking it, it’s good to be off the computer for work every now and then and there is a bit of fun in seeing the cost savings and value added.
VicREanalyst, I understand the pivot you’re making, but it’s important to be clear: even if assessed values fall across the board, that does not guarantee a reduction in anyone’s property taxes.
There are several reasons why an individual property’s change may differ from the average. The published average is a blended figure across all neighbourhoods and all residential categories. Your neighbourhood may have outperformed or underperformed that average. There may also have been corrections to your property data. And in Greater Victoria specifically, the ongoing PBR changes are reshaping both neighbourhood‑level patterns and the regional average itself.
BC’s appeal board has also been explicit: even a noticeably higher‑than‑average increase can have legitimate explanations, and differences under 5% are often not considered meaningful.
All of this is publicly available on the BC Assessment PAAB site.
The claim you make is that people want their assessments to be lower than the average. That’s not universally true. Some owners actually prefer a higher‑than‑average assessment because they believe it strengthens their position when they eventually go to sell.
You been at this for over a year, seems like maybe you would have been better off paying more for something turnkey. Unless you actually like doing renos.
You are a dumb ass, people want the change in their assessment to be lower than the average in their municipality to decrease their share of property taxes.
Dinko @ 12508807650
Homeowners often place far too much weight on their BC Assessment notice. It’s understandable—many people have no other ready reference point for what their home might be worth. But the assessment roll was never designed to determine the market value of any individual property. Its purpose is mass appraisal: to create a fair, consistent, and equitable valuation base so municipalities can set tax rates.
Viewed through that lens, the benchmark isn’t precision at the individual level. It’s coherence at the system level. If your home’s actual market value falls within roughly ten percent of its assessed value, that’s not a failure of the system—it’s evidence that BC Assessment has produced a reliable roll for taxation purposes.
And if your assessed value happens to match your market value exactly, that’s not insight. That’s coincidence.
It’s hanging drywall, mudding and sanding, it’s always just labour. The quotes I had back in September was with me having the materials delivered.
Ya labour is alil bit more reasonable , but material costs havnt moved at all . Some suppliers are saying prices will be up again in 2026
Reno update: couldn’t be more pleased with the all gas install. The high efficiency furnace, on demand hot water and fireplace turned out better than what I expected. The oil bill fully eliminated and hydro was cut July 2/3rds (the hot water tank was a beast on electricity).
I got some drywall quotes that seemed out of touch back in September. With things slowing down a bit on the construction side of things I think I will get some new quotes. Can anyone recommend some drywallers? I am not going to get the same guys to quote again.
Yes, and used my ability to compete in the market to purchase in a choice core area instead of finding something newer on an acreage because I didn’t want to spend an hour and half of my life in traffic each day.
Just saw this on Saanich’s new billing for water and sewer.
https://vicnews.com/2026/01/01/449-jump-saanich-resident-calls-water-and-sewer-rate-increases-staggering/
up 5% here, North Saanich…
God damn, my assessment went up by 2%…..
Six plex to sell or to rent?
Both sell or rent the numbers heavily favor multi-plex versus trying to subdivide the lot to build two in-fill SFHs.
You literally just said in your other post that missing middle products aren’t moving
that is exactly correct, but we are having a discussion about what makes more economic sense on a given lot and doing in-fill SFHs does not make sense right now otherwise builders/developers would be opting to do that. Use the Avebury six-plex as an example. That is over $6 million gross, or you can subdivide the lot into two in-fill SFH lots and fetch less than $4 million gross. You also lose a lot of the benefits of going six-plex. For example, in the COV if you are going 5+ units you avoid the deconstruction bylaw on the teardown. If you subdivide now you have a subdivision, services x2, etc.
You won’t be saving that much cost on SFHs to offset $2 million less gross sales.
Rental same thing, you would be screwed on a bunch of intricacies like the purpose-built rental housing (PBRH) GST rebate. If you do in-fill SFHs they don’t qualify as they don’t have a minimum of four units for this program. Not to mention with a multi-plex you end up with a lot more rental square footage on the same size lot.//
~~~
and not all lot width allows 6-plex to be functional. what is the min width requirement for those 6 plex missing middles in Saanich?
Cheers
Most of the big whiners on housing costs seem to be from the government union worker crowd. In reality these people traded earning potential for 35 hour work weeks, flex days, secure employment and a DB pension. Now that they are left behind in the housing race they are mad, but that’s literally due to the choices they made.
In a diserable neighborhood if you can. Go look at Seattle SFH are not any cheaper even if you don’t account for the FX. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2515-27th-Avenue-W-Seattle-WA-98199/48663470_zpid/?utm_campaign=androidappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Yep won’t be as cheap as they are today . I expect we will c greater regulation and additional fees heaped on housing as there is a lot of support for regulation and taxation in B.C . I read about it hear on househunt too
100% agree, unfortunately the majority of the population does not have strong enough critical skills to understand reality. Most people don’t even understand supply and demand. There is no changing this lunacy; therefore, why I think if you can afford it (and want it) buy a SFH sooner than later. It certainly won’t become cheaper long term.
Yep
>> Solution is simple, just need to have and/or make more money than the other people seeking the same thing. That’s how the free market works.
Agreed.
Solution is simple, just need to have and/or make more money than the other people seeking the same thing. That’s how the free market works.
Vicre, I never said people didn’t want a sfh . It’s just that younger generations will for the most part never be able to afford one . Hence I do think missing middle will be their future. I don’t find the prices in the core for missing middle to be over the top , maybe cheap even
The real advantage of missing‑middle housing is that it finally gives people a way into the neighborhood. Until now, their only entry point was the aging “starter home” that came bundled with six‑figure renovation needs—effectively shutting out anyone without the capital or appetite for a major project.
A modest multiplex changes that trajectory. It lets a household buy something livable on day one, begin building equity immediately, and spend the next decade paying down a manageable mortgage while the property appreciates. By the time they’re ready for a larger single‑family home, they’re not arriving as outsiders priced out of the market; they’re moving up from within it.
In other words, missing‑middle housing restores the ladder that used to exist. It doesn’t replace single‑family homes—it makes them attainable again.
Yeah, people want an affordable SFD and be at work downtown in 15-20 minutes, but they keep electing the folks that declare war on that happening. They want affordable housing, but they think that step code should be there, hand dismantling for tear downs, archeological assessments, mandatory arborist assessments, soil testing, permit and building fees not actually tied to the level service provided. Oh yeah, and there better not be a free flow of traffic from western communities to downtown. People always get the government and society they deserve because they like “their truth” affirmed even if it is not based in reality because the politicians they elect tell them they can “have it all” when their beliefs conflict with reality or how things actually work. Just remember, it’s always a government person that has no skin in the game that says: “well, it’s just one more cost and more requirement, so, why not”?
I don’t think so, nobody wants that missing middle crap. You gotta price it sharp for it to move. SFH will still be product everyone wants and there are some transacting for a pretty good deal currently.
Exactly, there are easier ways to make money other than real estate. That ship has sailed. The baby boomers who had the funds to buy investment properties are selling, AirBnB investors are bailing, foreign investors are banned, tenants are a pain in the ass. The ship is sinking, bail out while you can.
Meh , just a slow market . It will pu and people will pay. I don’t think building 4/6 plexs is a get rich scheme. Easier places to make money . The missing middle is the new sfh for a new generation
But the same said people are also having trouble unloading their finished multiplexes….
I was referencing the gross sellout delta at $2 million, not the profit. Long story short, people in the know are not building two SFHs.
Costs more to build and it’s uncertain if you will get the 6m gross, plus more inventory to move as the middle units will be harder sells. I am not saying the 2 SFH will make mor money but likely when you crunch the numbers it won’t be a 2m delta.
Both sell or rent the numbers heavily favor multi-plex versus trying to subdivide the lot to build two in-fill SFHs.
that is exactly correct, but we are having a discussion about what makes more economic sense on a given lot and doing in-fill SFHs does not make sense right now otherwise builders/developers would be opting to do that. Use the Avebury six-plex as an example. That is over $6 million gross, or you can subdivide the lot into two in-fill SFH lots and fetch less than $4 million gross. You also lose a lot of the benefits of going six-plex. For example, in the COV if you are going 5+ units you avoid the deconstruction bylaw on the teardown. If you subdivide now you have a subdivision, services x2, etc.
You won’t be saving that much cost on SFHs to offset $2 million less gross sales.
Rental same thing, you would be screwed on a bunch of intricacies like the purpose-built rental housing (PBRH) GST rebate. If you do in-fill SFHs they don’t qualify as they don’t have a minimum of four units for this program. Not to mention with a multi-plex you end up with a lot more rental square footage on the same size lot.
A $700,000 loss on Pender? The market isn’t that slow, is it?
The ecnomics of small-scale infill are brutal. Missing‑middle housing is structurally disadvantaged: expensive to build, risky to finance, unfamiliar to buyers, and still politically fragile.
The result is predictable: slow uptake despite progressive policy. Victoria only moved away from single-family zoning in 2023. You can’t unwind 70 years of inertia in just 24 months.
Missing middle will work, but not as quick as many had initally hoped.
Oak Bay’s demographic tilt toward older buyers naturally elevates the appeal of no‑step ranchers, particularly for those already facing or anticipating mobility constraints. But that demand profile doesn’t create a standalone market.
It’s a subset—highly specific, emotionally charged, and intermittently influential—within a much broader pool of detached‑home buyers. Because it’s a boutique segment, its pricing behaves in pulses rather than trends: periods of acute scarcity can push values sharply upward, followed by stretches where a cluster of similar listings saturates the niche and tempers pricing. In other words, the segment matters, but it doesn’t steer the whole market; it simply adds its own cyclical texture to it.
Six plex to sell or to rent? You literally just said in your other post that missing middle products aren’t moving
You can do this on any corner lot in Victoria too, but you won’t see it like before as missing middle will be more economically advantageous. I ran the numbers of splitting a large lot in Fairfield into two 4,100 sq.ft. lots and it made no sense compared to building a sixplex.
Judging by the new build rancher sales in Oak Bay in the last couple of years, yes.
As for the older ranchers there is a lot more older ranchers available in terms of inventory in relation to 1.5ish newer single family in the core, but I could see ranchers outperforming SFHs on the whole by a bit.
In Saanich, the lot geometry is fundamentally different. Many parcels are large enough that a single property can be cleanly severed into two 3,600‑square‑foot small lots. The geometry makes it possible.
Victoria doesn’t have that luxury. Most lots sit around 5,500 square feet, which simply isn’t enough land to create two compliant small lots. The majority of properties cannot be subdivided without running into frontage, setback, or livability constraints.
In neighbourhoods like Oaklands, the only way to achieve 3,600‑square‑foot lots would be to assemble three contiguous parcels. That means buying three homes at full market value, coordinating three sellers, and carrying three properties through rezoning and subdivision. It’s not economically viable, especially when demand for these older character homes remains strong.
The only way to bring down the cost of these older character homes to a level where contiguous lots can be assembled is to offer a more attractive alternative to the existing housing stock. The hope is that constructing missing middle housing will lower the demand for the older housing stock.
According to your theory then ranchers should do even better as there are not being build anymore period. Smaller SFH can still be built in the core, many SFH lots in Saanich can be subdivided into two 3600 sqft lots.
Heard of someone with a tear building a duplex, ended up costing 425/sqft…. Could have just sold the tear down and bought two suited SFH instead….
It’s unfortunately the state of HHV these days, can’t say other platforms are any better ->
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1px7vnu/i_hate_squatters/
The only common sense replies downvoted at the bottom.
The lower priced newer builds in the Victoria core continue to out-perform the market by a wide margin. 2014 build on Mrtyle Street in the Oaklands area on a 3,600 sq.ft. in-fill lot just went $37k over asking at $1,537,000.
My theory on why this segment of the market is performing so well is we will simply never see any substantial inventory added in the future in terms of smaller new SFH homes, it’s all missing middle from here on out. Also, three more missing projects about to hit the market in Oak Bay and not much is moving thus far.
Pretty nice 2005 build on Pender also sold yesterday for $1,850,000. Purchased in 2021 for $2,550,000.
Dec 29th, 2025
Month Dec Dec
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 334 421
New Listings 385 431
Active Listings 2,605 2,291
We can expect another 30 to 40 sales over the next three days so will end the month around 365 to 375 and 4th year in a row below 7,000 sales.
Thoughts/ideas/support for selling a house subject to purchase of sale, rather than subject to sale? Seems like a no brainer, but realtors likely wouldn’t like it. Although, in this market it would be the ideal approach to buying and reducing stress for homeowners looking to upsize with families. Curious if anyone has done this and how it was framed?!
Lolz
Over the last decade, the professionalism of real estate agents in British Columbia has improved markedly. A major reason is structural: agents are now provincially regulated by the BC Financial Services Authority (BCFSA). That shift—from industry‑run oversight to an independent statutory regulator—has raised standards, clarified expectations, and given the public a clear place to turn when something goes wrong.
If you have a concern or want to make a complaint about an agent, BCFSA is the body you contact.
The real estate boards do not regulate or discipline licensees; they provide services to members, but they do not police conduct.
Since BCFSA assumed responsibility for licensing and discipline, the public has been better protected, and the profession has become more consistent in its trustworthiness. But that naturally leads to a deeper question—one worth asking openly: what is it, exactly, that you don’t trust about real estate agents?
Until you understand where your distrust comes from, every agent will look the same. Define the source, and the right fit becomes much easier to recognize.
Are you buying a house or selling a house? Your posts are incoherent.
Inherited, I took a peak at the sales in your grand-fathers neighbourhood and the agency that Sarah works with has been one of the more active in the neighborhood over the last year.
There are also other agencies that have shown a proven track record in the area such as Newport Realty, Engel & Volkers, and Coldwell Banker.
Inherited, if you keep asking questions, I’ll keep doing my best to answer them. I knew your grandfather’s house — I used to jog past it three times a week — and I always appreciated reading his comments. Don’t let the “red‑pill” crowd pull you off balance. They’re easily triggered.
Illegitimi non carborundum
-Just Jack
Sure. As Barrister might say, I think the best idea for you today is to forget about it and go “have your first morning cup of coffee”. To be clear, that’s “coffee”, not “scotch” 🙂
Then go ask your wife for advice.
Barrister, pretending to be someone else is a real sign of mental illness. Having multiple personalities is no laughing matter and u should try to work on your personal health. I for one don’t want to c u on pandora , the househunt community has your back if u want to reach out .
I am reading the papers online to try to get a feel for whats going on. I am staying at Gran dads house which we need to put on the market and I am using his lap top.
I was hoping to get good advise here since wi
hile Sarah Binab seems really nice I dont know if I really trust Real Estate agents. Seems that this is more for electric cars than being about buying a house.
>> Is the house I what to buy going to hold its value? reading the papers it seems that property taxes are going up a lot faster than inflation,
….is this normal?
No Barrister, nothing in your “inherited” post is “normal”. For starters, no one is “reading the papers” these days. That’s something an out-of-touch senior would say, not a young person looking for a house like ‘inherited”. Same with the rest of your post. You aren’t fooling anyone with this silly “inherited” character. Just revert to Barrister.
No guarantees in real estate.
So what happens if BCs population does not or stays flat like it did this year? Is the house I what to buy going to hold its value? reading the papers it seems that property taxes are going up a lot faster than inflation, is this normal? Is it just the City of Victoria or is it everywhere?
Not really a story.. Have you been by the downtown Vancouver Costco anytime in the last 15 years? Also, lots of urban developments seem to have resdential above commercial.
They’re finally implementing my idea in LA. It’s about time. Too bad it’s in an earthquake zone.
“Rental properties can provide a great windfall when one retires. It’s like winning the lottery.
You sign up for another house and someone else, the tenant, pays for it.”
For anyone wondering why we have a housing crisis, and why first time buyers are being outpaced by investors, please see quote above. Time to to start thinking about a tax on second and third homes, imo.
Back to my original point, human trash has no place in a modern orderly society. They should be segregated and dealt with accordingly.
Back to my original point, old frail people are put in danger by wearing ostentatious bling out on any street these days, and their loved ones should make efforts to protect them from that sort of danger.
>> Seems that today’s Oak Bay ain’t the equivalent of the Oak Bay you relish; like the old grey mare, she ain’t what she used to be.
Re: Oak Bay .. the old grey mare, she ain’t what she used to be.
For some perspective, most recent stats show Oak Bay Crime rate (measured by CSI) is at a 5-year low (CSI of 23), Saanich also at a 5-year low (CSI of 30). and Canada CSI is 78.
Giving Oak Bay a A+ rating for low crime cities in Canada.
https://vicnews.com/2025/08/07/oak-bays-crime-severity-index-score-hits-5-year-low/
I’d say in this case the Oak Bay “old grey mare” IS still what she used to be!
Distinct difference between human trash and low income people. This isn’t the states, there are no real gated communities here.
Seems that today’s Oak Bay ain’t the equivalent of the Oak Bay you relish; like the old grey mare, she ain’t what she used to be.
Anyway, this incident happened at the OB Rec Centre, not the most elite of locations…it is almost in Jubilee.
Most wealthy enclaves that are worth their salt build their own fences to keep lesser citizens out.
4668 Cordova Bay Road is a solid buy, great value imo
Nice try, kits ain’t the equivalent of oak bay, it’s more like James bay or fairfield, some real dumpy areas in those neighborhoods frequented by questionable characters.
With the price of gold over $6000 cdn., better not flash any gold fillings. Ho Ho Ho.
Not frail 98 year old women, clearly. (and not frail 80 year old women in Kitsalino 15 years ago, either)
At some age, being out on the street with ostentatious bling becomes dangerous.
I am fine with them visiting Oak Bay and Saanich. My idea to clean up downtown is to pay the addicts if they agree to wear a tracker and stay outside CoV
Speaking of Oak Bay. Is there anything more Oak Bay than being run over by a senior citizen driving on the sidewalk? Thank goodness it wasn’t worse. https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/two-pedestrians-struck-at-oak-bayfoul-bay-intersection-vicpd-11651251
So people can’t walk around in oak bay with nice jewelry now? How bout lock these crack heads up and throw away the key instead if they ever come out of Pandora and commit crimes?
“Chain snatching from a 90 year old in oak bay”
What sort of ego does the husband/children have to allow an 98 year old woman to walk around flashing a big gold necklace?
I remember when dad encouraged my 80 year old mom to walk around flashing a big diamond ring…the sisters quickly put a stop to that for fear of her getting her finger broken.
Chain snatching from a 90 year old in oak bay. Jesus, gotta fence these human trash inside Pandora.
Lots of changes coming to the banking industry in 2026 that will be good for consumers as lenders become more competitive with each other.
I’m enjoying a good book called “One More House” by Rick Hoogendoorn and Ralph Case.
It’s quite straight forward and encourages people to think carefully and reminds everyone to think long term, before simply selling a property, when upgrading to another house,
It’s never easy of course, but worth looking at.
Rental properties can provide a great windfall when one retires. It’s like winning the lottery.
You sign up for another house and someone else, the tenant, pays for it.
The key is impeccable property management and being fair with your tenants…..which is good for business and for one’s heart.
If you can’t afford to get into a house, then partner with people by networking and leveraging your skills.
Think positive. No one hangs out with miserable people who look at the glass as half empty, instead of half full.
Good luck!!!
Merry Christmas everyone!!!
Happy New Year.
Couple of strong sales recently.
I don’t think the 115k people are working much overtime as they have kids. They would be at $49.xx base salary plus add ons I mentioned below. I am forgetting add ons as well. Now that I recollect I was on the code blue team so I got extra pay for carrying a pager too.
and for the responsibility i think these people are way underpaid when I see municipal salaries for completely useless positions.
So th 115k that the people you graded with earn now is without over time? Or basically a 35k difference in salary between a new grad vs someone at the top end of the pay range?
Technically speaking out of school I think you are at 80k full time but that doesn’t include nightshift premiums, weekend premiums, student premium (I use to get extra when I had a student with me), pretty much OT is on the table anywhere you work (keep in mind in BC OT is 2x base rate where some provinces I think it is only 1.5x). Full time is 4 shifts, 5 days off so plenty of opportunity to pick up OT.
and we are talking at 21 years old.
Problem with these fields is they have a huge barrier to entry.
Today on the other hand you can become wealthy off an idea or making interesting content with a phone camera.
Dude most of these guys started creating their wealth in the late 90s and early 2000’s. Larry Ellison is 81 years old for christ sakes…..
Mount, was going to say the same thing . Today is no different than it was a 100 years ago. The wealthy and the successful are not the villains , lots of folks should just pull up they’re socks and grow some balls
There have been ultra-wealthy business magnates going back centuries.
They were in different fields such as railroads, shipping, petroleum, etc., depending on the times.
“And just exactly how has that changed over the last 40 years”
I’ll give you a few examples and you can extrapolate from there. The personal wealth attained by Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison, etc. would not have been possible 40 years ago. Building and Navigating the modern technological world is primarily a function of intelligence. I am pretty sure none of these guys would have accumulated their personal wealth had they been born to a share cropper in 1925. Explaining the extreme wealth inequality is straight forward, accepting it is difficult for a society that values diversity.
100k straight out of university grad is possible but not the norm. Typical business and engineering types will be in the 60k-80k range. The smart ones with highly competitive jobs in tech, capital markets and consulting will obviously clear 100k no problem. Also how is it that over a decade later your friends are only at 115k when you said they can clear 100k right out of school? Are you factoring in a huge OT component?
If you want to hustle and go this route fairly easy, imo, to get to 100k/year by 22 yrs old. Trades or healthcare are a safe bet and provide something tangible to society/economy. I looked up some of my respiratory therapy friends I graduated with and they are now making in the 110 to 115k/year range.
Straight out of high school you can go into something like respiratory therapy -> https://www.tru.ca/science/departments/respiratory-therapy/admission-requirements.html
and then get a job anywhere you want. I did my clinical internships at Royal Columbian, BC Childrens, and Jubilee/General and has job offers from all three. If I could go back I would probably have started a YT channel reviewing CPAP machines or similar and driven Uber on my days off as you get a lot of time off due to the 12 hr shifts.
On the whole the state of affairs sucks, but there is still an opportunity to work hard and get into home ownership. If you are awaiting for the government to solve the “housing crisis,” good luck with that.
For SFHs I don’t think the opportunity will last. I think in 20 years or so no matter how hard you work unless you have generational wealth or a truly successful business you will be out of luck.
On the whole things are more difficult for the majority, but so many opportunities to hustle versus 30 years ago when we came to Canada and hustle was delivering fliers on Sundays for $50 per route. The cool thing about my job is meeting people on an ongoing basis and finding out what they do for work. For example, I helped these local folks with a real estate transaction in the past and they are very successful and live off YT/sponsorships -> https://www.youtube.com/sailingnahoa
I only make about $600/yr of YT itself, but I do it because I enjoy it and one video I made a number of years ago lead to an email which lead to a business idea that consistently generates about $1,000/month and involves about 30 minutes of my time per month. A lot better than delivering fliers in the rain.
and that is one of my many side hustle gigs. Made $28k this year AirBnbing my principal residence, will probably clear 35k for 2026 based on bookings so far. These things didn’t exist 15 years ago. 15 years ago when I went away my condo just sat empty.
The vast majority people are not going to want to take all their personal crap down to their storage locker and AirBnb their place while they are away, but the opportunity is there for people that want to get ahead.
Sure, there is easy money down that hedonistic road, but does that sort of operation make the Canadian economy stronger, build infrastructure, or create jobs?
I may be old-fashioned, but I thought that a business was supposed to create ongoing benefits for the region, not just financial flow.
And just exactly how has that changed over the last 40 years?
“The only people left behind are those who are lazy, incompetent and stubborn, likely all three combined.”
If only it was that simple. The single biggest predictor of economic success is IQ. Generally people with an IQ below 80 are functionally incapable of navigating the modern world. Life isn’t fair or equal.
Like marko says , if u have hustle there’s money to be made. I don’t feel sorry for anybody that wakes up and does shite at their job all day . That’s not what Canada needs right now .
Good news! Average net worth of Canadian households is now over $1 million! That’s “net” worth, after subtracting mortgage balance. Boomers lead the pack at $1.5 million (average). But millennials are doing great at $ 634,000 net worth, which is incredible for people in their thirties, and should easily grow to exceed the boomers when they reach “boomer age” (65+).
Funny, I’ve noticed less whining from millennials lately 🙂
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/generation-canadians-rapidly-increasing-wealth-152857035.html
The only people left behind are those who are lazy, incompetent and stubborn, likely all three combined. Those people won’t succeed in any era, the stakes are just higher now. 20 years ago you can be a mediocre union drone couple and still afford a semi decent SFH, now you will be relegated to a pretty crappy SFH.
The people who aren’t doing well like to form their own echo chambers on the internet and therapy each other searching for excuses to blame their failures in life on, I wouldn’t pay much attention to those people. The stock market at pretty close to all time highs, bitcoin still close to 90k USD, gas is cheap, rates aren’t too bad and some good deals to be had in the RE market, some RE speculators lost big or got wiped out. LOL what else can you ask for?
I agree, it has never been so easy to make money I wish I was born 10 years later and went the tech route instead of finance. I had to work my ass off to get to where I am with, but now there are highschoolers making multiples more than me filming themselves playing video games.
Agreed. Think of the pre-internet era, how would you afford to advertise your idea, let alone do sales,marketing, e-newsletters etc. Now that’s almost free and available to anyone with a good idea. And for the last few years we’ e added AI to answer any question a startup might have.
Different times, just as many opportunities today to make money and invest as there’s ever been . Lots of young folks doing really well , that hasn’t changed . I’m looking forward to 2026 to being a great year , life here in Canada has never been so good
Yep, and a bellwether of life in late-stage capitalism countries.
Most of us here have enjoyed the zenith of western society, and I’m pretty sure that my early life and business ventures would not have gone so smoothly if attempted in this century.
Then we are creating a “have” and “have not” society, with an elite class and a servitude class. Something similar to failed communist countries. If there is little to aspire to, then individuals lose incentive and expect to be taken care of, and we all know how well that works. I believe Canada is close to being that type of country. I’ve never had an hourly or salaried job. I’ve always been self employed except for my summer job while going to school and then I worked on a commission. Self-made entrepreneurs are a country’s greatest source of employment. Take that incentive away (it’s getting more and more difficult to start a bricks and mortar business) and unemployment rises. There are opportunities for online businesses that didn’t exist years ago, but competition is fierce, and in some case more work intensive since every sale requires shipping. Shipping expenses have risen and tariffs have added extra expense and workload, making many businesses unviable. For a country that needs immigrants to fill positions, we still have a 7% unemployment rate. And we all know the actual number of unemployed is much higher. Time to go back to bed.
Have to agree with Patrick.
Sad, but true. The solution would be clear cutting and building SFH neighborhoods with needed services.. I’d be all for that, but unlikely to have much support, even from the “families need homes” advocates. They seem to get excited about families living close to bus stops or with access to Modo rent-a-cars. I think that’s a mistake, as very few families want to settle for that.
Yup and even within SFHs there are different neighborhoods, streets and houses to separate those the variability in work ethic, competence and luck.
Frank, not everyone can have nice things . Sfh are for the most financially productive in society and then there are condos for those other people. So there is something for everyone and everyone has something . Merry Christmas everyone
Sad commentary on our new reality. People being forced to live in cubicles instead of a real house and yard where you can raise a family comfortably. But who’s raising families these days?
I hope Leo posts our predictions from last year, once the final tally is in.
Last year was likely an all time record low in SFH construction since WII and looks like we will be finishing this year lower than last so another all time low -> https://www.bchousing.org/research-centre/housing-data/new-homes-data
20 year ago in 2005 there were 15,473 SFHs started in BC. This year will be under 5,500 and trending downwards. With missing middle and all I anticipate for 2026 we will be under 5,000 SFHs.
Purpose build rentals through the roof at over 25,000 units. Compare with 2,654 units in 2005.
Will drop another 100 active listings by Jan 1st so we are looking at just below 2,600ish. While not catastrophic it will be the most active listings (inventory) to start the year since 2014. Then all we have is headwinds in the new year. First large batch of mortgage renewals at much higher rates, looks like rate cuts are done and unlikely to see any in 2026, no population growth and rising rental vacancies, economy shaky. That being said when things look bad the market seems to do the opposite 🙂
Not a huge bump in active listings for the year .
Month Dec Dec
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 287 421
New Listings 351 431
Active Listings 2,696 2,291
All very compelling arguments for not buying earthquake insurance. And if in the next year, there is no earthquake, they can always say they told you so and how they would have saved you thousands. Instant validation for them as the absence of a disaster becomes the wisdom of gong uninsured.
Your risk-management decisions should not be based on other’s predictive powers.
by the time your typical SFH needs extensive work post earthquake much of downtown would have been crumbled and Richmond possibly liquified. So good luck waiting for the insurance payout and the associated remediation work
…Unless it’s a big one, in which cases many structures will be a total loss.
I am not trying to trivialize the risk and if you are one of the unlucky ones to be in the wrong building at the wrong time, it is a serious problem but even a REALLY big one does not result in a total loss. Here in Victoria most of old town is in a lot of trouble. I used to visit the Board of Trade building (31 Bastion Square). Whenever I went to the basement I would marvel at the rubble foundations stuck together with mortar (In this case, by rubble I mean rocks about a foot in diameter). The rest of the building built on top of that is brick. Not a place I would want to be in during any sort of quake and for somebody working there the odds would be worse than I would want. You spend a good percentage of your life at work during a big part of your life. The rest of the city would be in much better shape. Right after the Mexico city quake in the early 80’s I talked to a seismologist from Ocean Sciences that had gone down to assess the damage. It was about an 8.0 and a lot of the city is built on clay like Victoria. From memory, about 3% of the city was badly damaged and that was all 5 and 6 story buildings. Apparently the resonance of the building is very important. Different quakes will shake at different rates and the buildings that are in the resonant zone will fail but not necessarily everything else will. In his view, a well anchored wood frame, <3 story building was pretty safe if it did not shake off its foundation and that there was no fire. Adding natural gas might not have been a wise move for the city…… He was the one that convinced me that earthquake insurance is not the panacea one tends to think it is. During the quake in San Francisco in the early 1900's damage was extensive but it was mostly a fairly small area and mostly fire. During the more recent quake there that pancaked the elevated freeway the news broadcast the same footage again and again but most of the city was fine. A lot of the damage was confined to a few blocks built on fill near the harbour. A lot of SF is rock.
I don't mean to trivialize the risk. Being in the wrong building is going to be a problem for a lot of people and I am only making decisions for me and my family. In my case, in a 1905 wood frame house, I replaced the foundations with new reinforced concrete, tied the sills down with anchor bolts, added hurricane clips to all the rafters I could reach from the attic, and added metal ties to all the joists that were butted together and to the posts under the beams but I didn't buy earthquake insurance. Big appliances and bookcases got tied to the wall with a strap. If my family and I live through any disaster uninjured the cost of repairing the structure is not my main concern. When I was younger, I would have rebuilt the house myself (again). At this point in my life, I would just move and leave the empty lot in my will. I did end up investing all those premiums that I didn't pay so I can afford to rent for my remaining days if necessary. YMMV. Make the decisions that fit your circumstances, not mine.
Of course exercise is import in health Barrister. Which is why I said “exercise is important”. But it isn’t the only factor. Genetics tops the list, and I’ll leave it to you to rank the rest of them.
The threat of earthquakes would stop me from moving to California, yet 40 million people live there. I would also not move to any tornado or hurricane prone region. These disasters happen multiple times every year. Then again, many people suffer heart attacks shoveling snow. I often ask myself when I see extreme flooding “Who put that river so close to those houses?”
yeah – nothing big here in the last hundred so doesn’t mean much. We have had some 6’s not to far away but in historical times any nearby 7’s have either been up island (46), offshore, or in Washington. And the “9” that was 325 years ago.
Gee Patrick, I thought that exercise was a key part of having lifestyle balance. Lots of other things are important but I think Marko is right about exercise being high up the list.
…Unless it’s a big one, in which cases many structures will be a total loss.
I think many people agree with you Boomer. You’re saving people money by sharing your experience and posting here.
The longer the quiet stretch, the more people treat risk as theoretical, even optional. Only after we have a moderate earthquake do people re-assess risk and purchase insurance once more.
I spoke with an elderly gentleman months back who chose not to buy earthquake insurance after 50 years of doing so. His point was a bit different than yours as at his age he would not re-build.
As far as I know, there hasn’t been anything really big near Victoria in recent memory. The 1946 quake was centered in Courtney and was not a subduction quake so while it was very felt here, there was not a lot of damage. There was a quake in about 1964 that I believe was centered somewhere near Bellingham. I remember the shaking (similar to the 1976 and somewhere around 2000 quakes) but no damage I can remember. An older house is at risk of being shaken and shifting off the foundation walls and hence the recommendation that you drill the foundation for anchor ties. Newer than that, most wood frame houses will stay standing. Lots of drywall pops and all your contents on the floor but a total loss is fairly unlikely. The way insurance earthquake insurance is calculated put me right off so I don’t carry it. While I don’t like the thought of paying for it myself, I console myself by thinking I could get started several years before all the insurance is paid out…..
That’s because those houses were gifted with special unicorn powers when they were built.
Probably wise to look at the earthquake maps and try to buy something on solid granite I would guess. Actually is being on granite better? There are a lot of hundred year houses that seemed to have survived the earthquakes alright.
We live in one of the most earthquake-exposed corners of Canada and commonally have earthquakes. The probabiliy of these are 100 percent. I think most posters consider the small earthquakes as more of a nuisance and are only concerned with the big ones that will do widespread property damage and loss of life. These are measured in the ten to 30 percent range over the next 50 years -not zero.
Over 30 years of say a mortgage you should assume at least one event capable of causing some damage and one in 50 years chance that an earthquake will cause substantial damage. The last one happening in 1946. We can’t predict when such an earthquake will happen again just that the longer we go between major earthquakes the higher the odds.
Home insurance is a personal risk decision, and people make it for all sorts of reasons—cost, optimism, denial, or simple inertia. But lenders do not have the same latitude. They are stewards of depositors’ money and institutional capital, not private fortune. Their obligation is fiduciary, not discretionary. A bank cannot simply “hope for the best” over a 25‑ or 30‑year mortgage horizon in one of the most seismically active regions in Canada.
.>>> So let’s obsess (and pay) for something that had a statistically probability of close to zero in my opinion, but something you can control like exercising (and is free) which carries a massive statistical probability of reducing health issues we will skip. I just don’t really get it
While exercise is important, maybe your neighbours are focusing on other risk factors. For example… ”lifestyle balance”. Maybe they don’t work seven days per week in a high stress job centered only around making money.
Does not sound like a really high vacancy rate here in Victoria.
The vacancy rate is just a gauge to measure how your building is doing relative to the market. If your building has a lower vacancy rate that might indicate the rents are too low. If your building is higher than the industry average it could be a sign of over pricing and weak management.
I don’t obsess over the number itself. I watch the spread between the building and the market.
Yes. And at what vacancy level will they consider removing a city from the spec tax ? With the svr ban, they have a 3% vacancy (for two years) which allows the city to apply to opt out. No such limit for the spec tax. But Victoria, Vancouver and Kelowna are above 3%.
“ Vacancy rates in Metro Vancouver and Victoria have risen to multi-decade highs (~3.7% and ~3.3%) — a significant loosening compared to chronically low rates in prior years. Kelowna’s rental vacancy appears particularly elevated, with rates near or above 6–7% in some local estimates.”
Exactly, for example my strata earthquake insurance deductible on my personal condo unit is 120k and it’s something that evey year people in my building obsess over in our FB group (specifically buying condo insurance that covers the strata earthquake deductible). My take on it is if our building suffers $15 million in damage and the 120k deductible is triggered I’ll just pay for it out of pocket at that time. We might get hit with an earthquake, but one that causes $15 million+ in damage, I don’t know.
Most days I am the only person in our really nice and well equipped building gym (133 units) and can’t say I see too many people from my building walking the Songhees waterway.
So let’s obsess (and pay) for something that had a statistically probability of close to zero in my opinion, but something you can control like exercising (and is free) which carries a massive statistical probability of reducing health issues we will skip. I just don’t really get it
Yes, Statcan tracks that data in the census. And actually Greater Victoria’s “older children” (age 20-29) have a much LOWER rate of living with parents (31%) than Canada (46%) overall. For context Winnipeg has 44% of age 20-29 living with parents.
The Statcan data is here, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810013701
and here’s an AI summary (pic).
thanks REAddict.
It makes perfect sense to me.
Watcher, he just means instead of paying premiums and being paid out by insurance, he would cover the loss himself out of funds saved/invested by not paying premiums.
also, what is “self-insuring”? and how does that work Marko?
SFH in Fairfield I just insured for $1,297 with Seafirst. No earthquake, maxed out deductibles (rather deal with things under 10k myself – had a small kitchen fire on a construction project 15 years ago and it was a pain dealing with insurance), $2 mill tenants legal liability, etc. I find if you go through the policy and really push the insurance broker to make changes you can bring down the premium quite a bit. I always get push back along the line of “ohhh that won’t make a big difference” but it adds up.
As I pay off my mortgages I am just going to self-insure going forward using what I personally deem to be common sense. If I have a rental on the 1st floor of a building I’ll skip the insurance, if it’s on the 8th I’ll consider it (tenant could flood a lot of units).
With my car once it drops below 40k in value I just go bare bones with ICBC. Currently paying $714/year for a 2023 Model Y. The $1000 I save every year skipping collision/comprehensive I’ll just put into a S&P500 ETF and when I drive a car into a tree in 20 years, assuming I survive, I’ll still be ahead. Just pull the invested savings and buy a new car.
//~~~~~
my deductible is 1000. ( not sure if it is max deductible or not) . what is yours Marko?
one of these older homes ( build in 1980/1981/1982?) has no issue whatsoever. I love my insurance agent and they are so kind that they know they gets more business from me and never upsell me anything. The carrier is Intact in this case. my premium is 1100(?)
I also brought(needed) a few commercial policies from general liability (5M)for my construction business, and course of construction insurance and
I also carry a commercial generalizability for 2M that has 2500 deductible that covers (flood deduction of 25,000) and sewer backup and water damage for 5k, and of course earth quake(lender needs this “all risk”) deduction (10%) with min 100k…– this one is a rental building…( carrier is LLoyd?)
lots of buyers and consumers have no sense of how to save a few dollars… they do add up so quickly.
I phoned seafirst, the guy was not friendly to me as I have a very strong accent that sounds ESL or a Out-of-town buyer(s)
Any data on how many older children still live at home in Victoria vs. other cities? Sounds like they still can’t afford the rent on these new builds. Also, more young people are remaining single, making it more difficult on one salary.
Marko- What about liability insurance for your car? It could take out an entire parking garage if it decides to self destruct. That could run into the millions.
According to the 2025 CMHC Rental Market Report, Greater Victoria’s purpose‑built rental vacancy rate has risen to 3.3%, the highest level recorded since 1999
That’s marginally better than Vancouver at 3.7% whch is the highest in more than 30 years.
Rents however are sticky on the way down and have not decreased to pre-covid levels
CMHC attributes the rise to a combination of new supply, slower household formation, and changing migration patterns (per the broader report).
My take on this is that if you are facing a renewal you may want to negotiate that add ons for storage lockers or parking be included in the base rent.
I find it interesting how many people obsess and go heavy on the home insurance and sometimes they’ll have a 900k home on a lot worth 800k. Let’s say it burned down or something, for example, while it would suck it wouldn’t be totally devastating. Just sell the lot for 800k.
My thing with insurance is when I drive around I see lots of brick and mortar insurance outfits, that costs money. Then you have insurance agents working inside these places, that costs money. Then the underwriter is making a profit as well, etc. Just makes more sense, if you can, in certain scenarios to self-insure. Obviously if you just spent $5 million construction on a brand new waterfront home self-insuring would not be wise or if you bought a 100k car and you know you are a bad driver.
I also had a lender a few years ago require earthquake insurance and then I just cancelled it and they never asked for proof remainder of the mortgage term.
Because other people also drive my car and it would create for an awkward situation if they wrote off a 100k vehcile and I had no insurance.
If it wasn’t for other drivers I would probably set it to 100k. Above that I don’t know. If I hypothetically had a 200k car and collision/comprehensive was $1000/year I would go for it. If it wad $3,000/year I would probably skip it.
My LTV at origination was only 1:10. When I asked the broker why I was being forced to take the coverage they said their internal policies required it “for many homes in your area” which I took as “because the actuarial models said so”. My sibling had a similar experience with Chubb in Seattle. They bought a home in 2024 with cash and were required to take on earthquake coverage. Strangely, Chubb was ok with them not having the coverage on another home worth ~3x more in SF that has a 1:5 LTV. Maybe it only impacts new policies because the SF home has been in their hands for the better part of a decade now.
A “risk discount” only materializes if competing bidders perceive the hazard in the same way and price it in. In competitive bidding, the “highest tolerance” for risk sets the price. And that often changes with market conditions. Prospective purchasers are willing to accept a higher risk in a market that strongly favors sellers.
Friends of mine parachuted out of C-130 airplanes at night. And they considered this risky, but less so once they were issued parachutes.
I’ve referenced this one before on here. There is another one that shows the site classifications but either will do. Now you know where there is a discount on northern gordon head waterfront homes.
Pardon me for the bad cut job. this link has the .pdf suffix:
https://cmscontent.nrs.gov.bc.ca/geoscience/PublicationCatalogue/GeoscienceMap/BCGS_GM2000-01.pdf
Why 40k?
I have always had a TD mortgage and no earthquake insurance required ever. Had 30% down when I purchased so not sure if that made a difference.
I just played GTA for 2 hours and I can confirm this statement is absolutely true. Also airplanes.
They wouldn’t let me drop it last year, but they cranked the deductible over 5x this year, so if they don’t I’ll move providers.
I’ve had several chats with engineers on this exact topic. Houses built today are engineered for you to get out alive – not to be undamaged / habitable. I think the math is going to work out OK on base isolation with the rate that insurance is increasing (but I haven’t gotten into the weeds yet).
When moving house last year within the CRD, TD forced me to take on earthquake coverage for the house I moved into. I’ll be interested to know if they let you exclude it without dropping you entirely.
SFH in Fairfield I just insured for $1,297 with Seafirst. No earthquake, maxed out deductibles (rather deal with things under 10k myself – had a small kitchen fire on a construction project 15 years ago and it was a pain dealing with insurance), $2 mill tenants legal liability, etc. I find if you go through the policy and really push the insurance broker to make changes you can bring down the premium quite a bit. I always get push back along the line of “ohhh that won’t make a big difference” but it adds up.
As I pay off my mortgages I am just going to self-insure going forward using what I personally deem to be common sense. If I have a rental on the 1st floor of a building I’ll skip the insurance, if it’s on the 8th I’ll consider it (tenant could flood a lot of units).
With my car once it drops below 40k in value I just go bare bones with ICBC. Currently paying $714/year for a 2023 Model Y. The $1000 I save every year skipping collision/comprehensive I’ll just put into a S&P500 ETF and when I drive a car into a tree in 20 years, assuming I survive, I’ll still be ahead. Just pull the invested savings and buy a new car.
House I built in North Saanich was on bedrock and I never bought earthquake insurance using this premise so I agree for the most part. However, at the same time my place in Zagreb (new steel and concrete build) got hit by a solid earthquake and glasses I left on my kitchen counter didn’t budge, but on the same block we had two roof collapses and a number of completely written off buildings (all older construction).
2800.
Agreed. I’m on bedrock.
That link is a 404.
Groot please post some AI platitudes to get us back to housing
I started with that premise when I was shopping in the capital. With this map I eliminated a lot of houses:
https://cmscontent.nrs.gov.bc.ca/geoscience/PublicationCatalogue/GeoscienceMap/BCGS_GM2000-01.
Better ground conditions will likely trump any extra structural components you have on a site with poor ground conditions.
How big is the house? at 400/sqft on a 2500 sqft house the deductible is over 50% of the build cost of a brand new house.
It’s time for my annual insurance rant. Now up to 6.5K with earthquake accounting for over half. I’ve called TD to cancel the earthquake portion, which now has a staggering 567k deductible. I await the call back…
As a tie-in to housing, I’m working with an engineer to base-isolate my next project. No more earthquake insurance as the buildings will be as ‘earthquake-proof’ as can be.
No they will not, unless its none profit or below market housing where the developer is made whole regardless of market conditions
Just got back from the mainland, after a few days with the relatives, and I see that this platform has turned into a political commentary and car salesman blog.
The need for the CPoBC to quickly get a full slate of candidates in 2024 resulted in a lot of fringe freaks on the ballot. What is most needed now is for them to elect a strong centre-right leader (and appoint a hard-hitting party whip).
I agree that there are more votes to win in the centre than lose at the edge.
Yup, the crackles and pops from the exhaust when down never gets old for me.
My take is the ndp have been moving to the extreme left since Horgan left the scene , it’s not what got the ndp in power . They’re remaking of the province in they’re vision is starting to make a lot of folks uneasy .
More than a whiff, there were actual convictions of political appointees, who just happened to change their pleas to guilty before any BC Liberal politicians were called to testify.
Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark are both looking pretty good in retrospect, even if there was more than a whiff of corruption at times.
The right has to decide if they want to be a centre right party and risk 1-5% of votes going to a fringier right party or if they want to embrace and welcome the fringe but risk losing some of the middle.
Either strategy could work if the NDP are unpopular enough, but I’d say there are more votes to win in the centre than lose at the edge.
She actually ran for the BC Liberal leadership in 2018, losing to the dud Andrew Wilkinson who went to receive a mauling by John Horgan’s NDP. If she’d won perhaps the BC Liberals would still be in business.
But it comes back to the same point, Gordon Campbell had the winning formula and the question is does the right in BC, whatever it’s called, have the will to get back to it.
Winnipeg’s population is growing and the housing market is very active with all good properties getting multiple offers and selling over list. Wouldn’t doubt if thousands of B.C. residents aren’t relocating to the Prairie Arctic. Your unemployment figure may be incorrect.
Putting the power of a muscle car+++ in the hands of your average driver is a recipe for disaster. When they do hit something, they often explode, incinerating the occupants. No thanks.
Performance cars used to be marketed on their awesome 0-60 acceleration. Now that even mediocre EVs have sports car worthy acceleration I’ve noticed the switch to marketing based on “feel”.
Yes. I think in previous years, population growth was limited by available housing, so that population matched housing stock. So if excess housing build has occurred, the opposite may happen and population may grow to fill the available housing stock. Victoria is rated # 1 small city in the world, has Canada’s best weather, and Canada’s lowest unemployment rate. It’s not hard to imagine more Canadians moving here to occupy the empty apartments.
e.g. Forecast for Winnipeg tomorrow is -32 and a blizzard. Winnipeg unemployment is 6.2% vs Victoria 4.3%.I’d expect some Winnipegers to move here for a job and to fill an empty new Victoria PBR apartment.
Are there a lot of new apartments coming?? If the population is not growing will they keep building anyway??
Guessing that rents may stop increasing for a while??
Fallout from the iPro scandal, on top of one of the worst markets in Toronto in 25 years -> https://realestatemagazine.ca/agents-expected-to-recover-50-of-lost-commissions-after-ipro-scandal/
Interesting times for purpose built rentals going forward. All time record highs in terms of completions, but population dropping.
More and more car enthusiasts are driving EVs and in the garage they will have an ICE like a M2 manual or similar, just like people who have hobby horses to this day but wouldn’t make sense to come in on horse from North Saanich to Victoria.
I’ve also noticed a lot of the very successful car reviewers on YT that literally do nothing but review cars for a living drive EVs personally and most frequently the Tesla Y or 3.
On a day to day basis where are you really going to feel the sound of a high performance ICE in Victoria, traffic is at a crawl. Then you have to deal with the BS of servicing these cars, etc. and at the end of the day unless you are spending over $200,000 nothing with out accelerate a 75k performance variant Tesla. When it comes to SUVs you need to spend $400k+ on a Urus to get something to keep pace with a 75k Tesla Y.
No surprise here when you watch videos like this
Towing with my Ford Lightning EV Pickup was a TOTAL DISASTER! -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nS0Fdayj8Y
Good news for Canada on the trade issue with US!
US trade rep just told Congress what Canada needs to do to extend CUSMA for 16 years. And if you look at the list, it’s quite reasonable. (Dairy, online streaming/news, US alcohol sales). Those likely account for less than 5% of trade.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/politics/2025/12/18/us-trade-rep-lists-demands-canada-must-meet-to-extend-cusma/
Hard to see any show stoppers there. Isn’t Canada fortunate to have such a friendly neighbour. It’s time for Canadians to realize this, and resume normal relations with our friends down south.
B.C. sees annual population drop for first time on record
B.C. has seen its first annual population drop on record, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada.
The province saw its population drop by a record 14,335 in the third quarter of this year.
While experts caution use of quarterly figures, this the first drop on an annual basis since the national statistical agency starting keeping records.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/article/bc-sees-annual-population-drop-for-first-time-on-record/
Frank – don’t forget how they all explode. It’s strange there are so many EVs on Vancouver Island when they’re so undesirable – especially with nowhere to charge.
Sorry, couldn’t help myself.
Ford is canceling the F-150 pickup EV, writing off $19.5 billion. Spoke to an executive for Chrysler a month ago, they hate EVs, they’re the reason companies are approaching near bankruptcy.
No one wants to spend over $10,000 on a new battery to keep an eight year old vehicle going. Heard the eMustang battery replacement is $27,000. That’ buys a lot of gas. Range anxiety and lack of charging sites across the country is a complete turn off. Not to mention our current hydro supply can’t meet the demand that would be placed on it. AI centers require enormous amounts of electricity.
Electric is the future , it just needs time and to grow organically thru innovation . Too much pump when the product falls short
I’ve driven both and imo they are two different products. No replacement for the feel and sounds of a high performance ICE drive train.
Gas prices would have to double to get more people to seriously consider an EV. The majority aren’t interested.
The majority of the improvement happen in the new Jupinter refresh, not the delta difference between base and performance. When you adjust for a bunch of free upgrades on the performance that you have to pay for on the lower models it’s barely 10k more.
Performance in Canada is $74,900 and car enthusiasts that have owned the likes of Porsche ICU SUVs are giving it glowing reviews -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPEyKvMdHjc “The Tesla Model Y Performance Will Ruin You”
Once they figure out tariffs/logistics (shipping from Germany) and bring back the base model around $59,900 sales in Canada will bounce back.
Elon is a nutcase, but the product is pretty damn good. It is disappointing that no one else can come up with anything decent. VW Canada slashing VW Buzz prices by 30k. How do you bring a car to market with such crap range in 2025? and anything that is somewhat close is 2x the price (Macan EV Turbo) and you don’t have Tesla’s superior charging infrastructure.
So you are comparing a base model to the top of the line model that costs almost twice as much?
I think that everybody here should be proud of being part of (and for maintaining civility on) an un-moderated public forum.
I think once everything settles down EV sales will bounce back stronger than ever. I recently test drove the Performance Model Y and like Elon or not the product is off the charts imo, so much better than my 2023. On my Y I just crossed 58,000 km and literally haven’t had one issue, haven’t done one thing. Not sure if I use less wiper fluid than everyone else but I literally haven’t even been to Canadian tire to buy wiper fluid.
I am of the opinion EV sales will start to make up larger and larger market share, but global oil demand will increase into the 2040s.
fyi, EV related heading into 2026 if anyone is interested
“The enhanced capital cost allowances (CCAs) enables a higher deduction in the year that an electric vehicle is put on the road (up to 75% of $61,000, for vehicles acquired between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2025). The Canadian EV incentive for businesses under the enhanced CCA program will decrease from 75% to 55% in 2026.”
With a smiley face 🙂
I can also see that via commercial real estate website that Abstract is trying to offload re-zoned development properties so not cheaper enough for them to move forward with various projects. The context of what Mike said in the TC was in relation to absolute peak pricing contacts when that particular project started.
Most car manufactures are significantly cooling off their EV initiatives and reviving more hybrid and ICE products.
That’s odd.. why does he need to take his wife and kids 4 weeks in a row? Why can’t they stay home some of the weeks doing something else?
Material costs are largely independent of the local market, but labour costs yes. Abstract confirmed they are getting cheaper pricing couple months ago in the TC. Small scale projects are usually the last to see any pricing advantage.
Another advantage of being Financially Independent is that you can express your opinions without fear. How did you respond to those realtors?
Global oil demand will most likely grow for the next 20 to 25 years (certainly for the next 10 years) so either we sell it or Russia sells it and funds development of ballistic missiles. Even once we hit a peak global demand the decline will be slow and insignificant in most of our lifetimes.
If the political agenda is pro-environment in my opinion is still makes since to build the pipeline (s). Use the revenues to offer EV incentives and other. I think that is a better use of revenues than ballistic missiles.
From what I can see, specific to missing middle projects, it isn’t putting any downward price pressure on construction costs. The few projects I have access to are running above budget but will probably fall within their contingency reserves. I am also involved with very savvy price conscious builders that are physically working on their sites every day. One guy was telling me went to Costco four Sundays in a row with his wife/kids to buy 10 toilets each time (for his 40 toilet missing middle project). They had toilets he liked for $100 and it was cheaper than what he could get on a bulk order.
With missing middle product not selling and no evidence of reduce construction costs I think missing middle construction in particular will slow down going forward.
Every week more stuff hitting the market -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29181974/2-2268-bowker-ave-oak-bay-henderson
I also think more and more municipalities will go the way of View Royal to circumnavigate bill 44 through their own bylaws which will make it economically not feasible to build. (View Royal put in a 1,000 sq.ft. unit max for Bill 44 fourplexes, you can do lots of things to make Bill 44 projects not feasible).
Now Alberta is talking about a pipelines going around bc too . It’s clear other provinces don’t want to do business with BC
We are about to have a third year in row in BC with pathetic GDP growth in the 1% rage, health care is ridiculously bad imo, etc., I too think we need to do better.
Even if you have your own business you have to be careful sharing your opinion. I’ve been arguing with NIMBYs on FB with facts and I have real estate agents colleagues texting me privately “I take it you don’t want to do any more business in that area anymore :).”
Actually started at $8.9 M in 2018. I believe this was the developer’s personal unit, he passed in 2017.
Strata fees over $4,300 per month and property taxes 28k/year.
I am seeing more houses being sold after a painful price discovery… 1201 – 21 Dallas Rd is another example.
Started at $5.995M and finally sold for $3.25M
May I paraphrase Stewart Prest, a political scientist at UBC?
Within conservative politics in BC, there’s an apparent lack of willingness to compromise around points of view, to find ways to build larger political coalitions that require some degree of compromise and understanding of other viewpoints…a very absolutist or maximalist approach to politics… “Mr. Rustad’s political demise is really, in many ways, a function of these two factions within B.C. conservatism that cannot or will not work together on many issues.
Beyond that, there are these other members of the legislature and voters in the province who would call themselves conservative or right of centre, but but can’t find a home for themselves within the BC Conservative Party…So it is a process of increasing fragmentation at the moment.
Personally, I’d like to see Watts or Sturko enter the leadership fray.
Victoria RE would go through the roof if we became the 51st state and get an expanded airport capable of trans Atlantic/Pacific flights.
Vicre, I agree , and if Alberta and Saskatchewan want out I couldn’t blame them . Neither province wants to do business with b.c . With what’s happening with dripa and now having 2 bc provincial governments is a total deterrent
51 state works fine for me and everyone else around the world who is willing to put in some work.
Vicre, I would say im a centralist and at one time that was where all the votes were. I think we are definitely getting push back on extreme left wing politics in b.c . There’s no place for the ndp in Canada today . We are under threat and need to get a move on or we will be the 51st state .
I think the division is way bigger than what it appears on the surface, Canadians in general are risk averse and not very vocal compared to down south. Anyone earning more than 150k a year (those paying bulk of all the taxes in this country) is tired of this socialist crap but deal with it because other views aren’t politically correct and are in fear they may loose their jobs because of it.
Darryl jones, is also thinking about running, he is all about business and that’s a good thing . I think there’s some good candidates out there. Whoever gets the job will be the next premier of the province.
Maggie, it’s hard to have a rational discussion when you start by castigating the other side of the debate. Your one post starts by referring to the Conservatives as “anti-vax Bible thumpers”, and then you go on just below by implying anyone considering voting Conservative must be a Trump-like “hillbilly”. All those comments also got significant upvotes. So really you’re sort of foreclosing any actual “discussion”.
I think we can do better. If we can’t, then the social divide just grows needlessly and we become just more so of what we see down south. I don’t think that’s a good solution to the divisions we already have here.
What are you? Also America is doing pretty darn good compared to rest of the world.
Exactly what the American hillbillies were saying before they elected Trump.
Literally same thing across all levels.
Feds just overpaid by $5 million for an apartment building in View Royal.
BC Housing paid $26 million for a property on Blanshard. Chard development paid $7 million for the adjacent property and now they are in a partnership on those two properties combined, lol.
City of Victoria just discussed.
>> What are you proposing as an alternative?
Anything would be better than this …
“From a $5.7 billion surplus to an $11.6 billion deficit: How did B.C.’s finances go astray?
Premier David Eby had billions in the coffers when he took office but large-scale spending and lowered revenues have cratered finances… In just under three years, B.C.’s NDP government has gone from projecting billions in surpluses to logging a record deficit. So how did the province’s finances flip in just a few years time? When Premier David Eby took over in 2022, B.C. was on track to post a $5.7 billion surplus for the 2022-23 fiscal year. ”
https://vancouversun.com/news/from-surplus-deficit-how-did-bc-finances-go-astray
Yes.
It would be nice to see Dianne Watts enter the Conservative Leadership race. She polled highest among 15 possible candidates, and the November 2025 poll had BC Conservatives tied with NDP with her leading the party.
https://researchco.ca/2025/11/13/bc-conservatives-2/
“With former Surrey Mayor and MP Dianne Watts as leader, the BC Conservatives would be tied with the BC NDP at 21% among all voters.”
Not sure, it’s weird and the converted suite is a turnoff personally. But can probably yield close to 6k in rent which will cover the mortgage with 20% down. Good holding for someone who is working/living elsewhere but wants to eventually come back to Victoria. When the time comes they can either do a complete Reno or rebuild the house.
A: We were discussing provincial elections, not the COV.
B: https://www.biv.com/news/bc-conservatives-plan-11b-deficit-in-first-year-higher-than-ndp-or-greens-9657445
I am socially liberal on most fronts but fiscally conservative and the two don’t seem to go hand in hand in terms of an alternative.
However, no sure how much longer the current status quo can go on fiscally. I am surprised when people are subjected to 10% property taxes increases year after year that they aren’t questioning the left fiscal non-sense a bit more.
I just made a video outlining how DND ferdally overpaid by $5 million for an apartment building in View Royal in a crap real estate market and it’s already time to put another video together -> https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/city-of-victoria-to-lease-out-ex-restaurant-after-buying-land-for-new-park-11607076
Worst part in all of this is the head of the real estate department as COV makes 200k/year and they’ve made one purchase after another overpaying by millions. Now we have a $11 million purchase yielding gross $123k per year. COV will probably hire another position at 100k per hear to oversee the lease and will probably invest 500k in maintenance into the structure over the next 5 years. Then they will probably spend another few million to knock it down and make a park, on Blanshard which people will flock to so they can watch 6 lanes of traffic while they avoid needles. Wild stuff.
4490 Shoreway… I was thinking the same thing. Any issues with the house?
4490 shoreway looks like solid value.
I agree, these left wing people are so blind that they don’t even realize they are putting everyone including themselves at risk until the noose is around their own necks.
Maggie , yep I would like to c the conservatives back in. A big change to the right
What are you proposing as an alternative? The Greens, or the anti-vax Bible thumpers who recently spent the better part of a day incapable of agreeing on who was running their circus tent?
Rates ramping back up and layoffs all over the place, public and private. Hearing some of the trades/contractors (large and small) are laying people off now also. Should be some good deals to be had in the next 6 months if you have secure income and flush with cash.
We’ve now had four years under 7,000 sales so we are due for a small improvement next year (I am predicting 7,300 to 7,500 sales for 2026), but at the same time there so many headwinds. A business friendlier government would help.
B. C would do much better next year if we throw the ndp out . Those losers need to go
December 15th, 2025
Month Dec Dec
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 196 421
New Listings 277 431
Active Listing 2,872 2,291
British Columbia’s economy is expected to post modest growth of 1.2% next year, lagging the national average. Slowing demographic growth driven by new federal immigration targets, tariff headwinds in lumber and aluminum, and softer residential investment will be partially offset by natural resource export gains and labour market improvements.
Sluggish housing construction is expected to continue dampening residential investment. We’ve seen a notable slowdown in residential investment in August, following a rebound earlier in the year. Housing starts are estimated at 37,000 annualized units next year, roughly 6,400 lower than in 2025. However, there’s been early evidence the mild recovery in home resales has resumed, and we believe will be sustained thanks to lower interest rates.
Source RBC Economics
CMHC doesn’t track vacant, unsold condominium inventory in Victoria. In Vancouver (popuation 3,000,000), by contrast, the agency estimates about 2,500 condos are sitting empty.
For Victoria’s much smaller market (population around 400,000 to 450,000) , the best estimates suggest between 306 and 396 vacant active listings, plus another 439 pre-construction units in the pipeline.
This is the dilemma of living in a small pond. Demand has been steady, prices stable to slightly softening. Yet in a market this size, signals arrive late. By the time you realize absorption has slowed, the water level has already dropped. By the time you name it a drought, it’s too late.
Not much deck work happening in -25C, -45C windchill weather. Got 100 sq. ft. finished, will complete the other 200 sq. ft. in the spring. Did complete painting of about 1000 sq. ft. of the basement, probably saved 5 grand. Back painting the main floor, 1400 sq. ft. Priced out flooring, I thought laminate was an economical alternative, turns out it isn’t. Picked out a wood laminate at $6 a sq. ft., but wanted it professionally installed. Home Depot quoted me $14 sq. ft. for installation. The floor has to be perfectly level to get a proper install. So I’m back to refinishing the oak hardwood throughout the house. I can do that myself. Debating whether I want to paint the oak trim and baseboards or leave them natural. Probably going to paint. Saving tens of thousands doing most of it myself. The trades have gone completely bonkers on pricing, if you can get them to show up.
I must have missed that bit of gossip. I just assumed he was out hunting squirrel meat for the winter.
C’mon Vic, ever since the wildwest cowboy got run out of town it has been pretty civil around here.
If we keep it that way, the non-resident boss might not shut the doors.
There is no definitive answer one way or the other thats why I wrote “might ease”. But if you want you can put the quote into an AI program and check it?
Does this retard even read his AI crap before posting?
Vicreanalyst.
Congratulations to you and your peers for contributing to the selection of The Oxford Word of the Year 2025 .“rage bait”
Rage bait is defined as “online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive”
Lmao, he can generate AI pics of his imaginary deck now.
The median price for a detached home over the first eleven months of this year has been $1,268,750, while a condo in the core has averaged $545,000. That works out to a ratio of 2.33 to 1—historically high, and a clear signal that moving from a condo to a single-family home in the core has become more difficult. For condo owners, the traditional “step up” into detached housing is now a steeper climb than in past cycles.
The picture is less straightforward for renters considering a condo purchase. Rental data is imperfect, and the signals are mixed. From what can be observed, conditions appear balanced—neither strongly favoring renters nor condo sellers. Outside the downtown core, condo prices have remained stable. Within the core, however, where most investment-oriented condos are concentrated, the market has shown more sensitivity to demand shifts
A key variable lies in the role of government workers. If a significant return to downtown offices were mandated, the ripple effects could be substantial. Downtown businesses would benefit from renewed foot traffic, while condo sales in the core could see a lift from increased demand. At the same time, a stronger downtown presence might ease traffic congestion by reducing the volume of commuters traveling in from outlying areas.
The math has shifted: rents haven’t kept pace with acquisition and operating costs, and the province’s layering of taxes (speculation, vacancy, foreign buyer, capital gains inclusion rate changes) has made “hold and rent” less attractive. For many, the calculus is simple—why wrestle with razor-thin margins and regulatory risk when you can crystallize gains, pay the tax, and exit with wealth intact.
Investors rode the wave of appreciation through the 2010s and pandemic years. Now as tenants leave, the unit becomes a liquidation opportunity rather than a re‑rental headache. And then the landlord can shift to other cities where yields are stronger or simply bank the winnings.
It’s a kind of generational pivot: Victoria’s housing stock is being reshuffled from investor portfolios back into owner‑occupier hands. That has civic consequences—fewer rental units held by small time investors, but also a rebalancing toward local buyers who can finally compete without investor pressure.
How is your deck in Winnpeg coming along would love to see a progress photo.
I’ve bought a dozen properties , one just this year, what’s your point. Starting in1986. What has changed is the power a renter has over the owner. This will result in fewer investors, fewer rental properties, and higher rents.
Yup that was me, except no one was actually able to qualify for couple hundred k more in borrowing than what they would have before.
That’s simple.
Rents rising while borrowing costs fell created a rare window where leveraged acquisition of rental property looked unusually attractive. Many investors seized it, and the financing environment amplified the effect. Wasn’t it you that said the Holy Grail of real estate is cash flow nuetral.
Frank, I bet you didn’t even google “Financialization of Real Estate”. A lot of things have changed since you bought your home which has led to significant inflation in home prices. The 2008 financial crisis is an example of how real estate has become much more than brick and mortar.
Another terrible take by the “appraiser”, can you please show the math on how affordability increased by hundreds of thousands of dollars during covid?
People have been investing in real estate for hundreds of years, you’re full of it.
Over the next collapse—if and when it comes—there will be no shortage of economic papers dissecting the housing market. My view is that the way we’ve understood housing has fundamentally shifted in the last two decades.
Before 2010, buying a home meant buying a place to live, to enjoy, to anchor your life. Financing was tethered to wages, and equity was a byproduct, not the purpose.
Then the ground shifted. Lenders rewrote the rules, and equity firms flooded in. A home became less about shelter and more about yield.
Take basement suites. Some lenders count 100% of that rental income toward your borrowing power. When rents spiked during COVID, affordability metrics exploded. In a matter of months, what you could “afford” jumped by hundreds of thousands. Your T‑4 didn’t change. The house didn’t change. What changed was the math—suddenly you had access to buckets of financing.
Equity firms did the same thing, but on a far larger scale. They treated neighborhoods like portfolios, homes like cash cows, and the market itself like a balance sheet.
The result: housing detached from wages, redefined as profit streams. Shelter became secondary.
Most commentators on this blog still picture real estate as it was—the world they entered when they bought their homes. But the landscape has shifted dramatically. Housing is no longer just shelter or community; it has been recast as a financial instrument, traded and speculated upon like the stock market. The “real” in real estate has all but vanished.
Financialization has generally made real estate more volatile, exposing housing markets to swings more akin to equities. By treating homes as investment vehicles, markets respond faster to global capital flows, interest rates, and speculative behavior, amplifying booms and busts.
Yet real estate in Victoria has remained resistent to significant change. Victoria is an enigma. That could be due to its demographics: A mix of retirees, long-term homeowners, and cautious planners tends to slow radical shifts.
10% more at most IMO, unlikely to get back to 2019 prices for Victoria for diserable areas in the core.
See the GDP per capita Growth over the last 20 years
Not more than Americans., relatively. Real GDP growth in Canada is less than half of US’s over the last 20 years.
It’s not the absolute home prices that has to come down to $500,000. The affordability RELATIVE to INCOME that could come to the mean or overshoot downwards.
Wages have come up too much for 500k SFH….
Real Estate has long cycles (both upwards and downwards). During downcycles, it not only reverses to the mean but can also overshoot further down. Canada missed the downcycle in 2008 so it is long due for the reversion to the mean and maybe further.
If you own or rent a home with a driveway but don’t have a car—or if your driveway is double-wide—you could rent out the unused space.
The city’s parking crunch will need to worsen before private enterprise steps in with large-scale solutions, whether through new parkades or regulations requiring proof of a dedicated space before purchasing a car. Until then, those with surplus driveway capacity have a simple opportunity: turn idle pavement into income.
.>>>> yet Another Boomer: I am back to demanding parking be included with the development permission
Agreed. This seems like the obvious answer to prevent this problem from worsening.
Just move to a more exclusive/expensive neighborhood, you get to avoid most inconveniences in life just by throwing money at it.
That would be a good solution, except city council seems to have a plan to make car ownership so onerous that people are forced to abandon that option, or move somewhere else. Just more cultural-revolution ideology based rules, something I have noticed a lot of since moving to the provincial capital.
” Where are employees going to park their work trucks? ”
We are currently working on this one… unable to register the work van in the residential parking only zone out front because of because the CoV bylaw, Section 95-1 states that:
Parking commercial vehicle in residential zone 95 (1) A person must not park or permit to remain parked a commercial vehicle with a licensed gross vehicle weight in excess of one ton in front of land zoned for residential purposes under the between the hours of 6:00 p.m. of one day and 7:00 a.m. of the next day.
This is complaints driven and the neighbours are okay, but if you are going to break the rules it is best to know what they are.
Hmm maybe angle parking on all public streets on 1 side ( 2 even ) get in 3x more cars . Imagine angle parking up and down your street
“Exemptions: Residents living directly next to the street can often park there overnight if they can prove residence”
Thus, if they are your neighbours, they live directly next to the street you live on.
Ya, I really think it simplifies things putting parking into a political category, as it does just about any issue. I struggle with the notion of allowing limited to no parking with new development but I also get it in terms of trying to make housing more affordable. I don’t have a solution except I can say that removing parking requirements for new builds, and then allowing parking everywhere on the streets affects the quality/tone of the street. If you have a quiet residential street, it often means kids cannot use the street in the same way to play, it affects the noise in the hood as people come and go all hours searching for a spot…it’s not the same. Having lived on a quiet street (cul de sac) where a bad neighbour occupied the street with all of his boarders and business, and friends’ vehicles, including some large trucks, it wasn’t fun. It was noisier, not as safe for kids (less visibility, more traffic). It may be the trade-off we have to make in the future, but I think it is naïve to think it’s a minor issue. I would prefer some of the solutions that allow more frontage parking that Marko has illustrated in the past, over no requirements for parking. With the right design, and some tree placements, shrubs between builds, etc. these can still look quite nice.
How many by-law officers work between 2-5am? How do you know what license plate belongs to what house? There is such a thing as common courtesy. However, I know of some areas where the lots are very narrow and the street is always jammed with parked cars. You would rarely find a spot in front of your house, plus the house across the street from you would have claim to the same spot. Putting several 4 plexes on one block would definitely take up your front street parking even with unenforceable rules in place. My friend lives in Oakville, Ontario and his neighbor always parks in front of his house. There aren’t any anti- ignorant pills.
It certainly sounds like one of those feel good laws that is totally impractical. Lots of streets are already full with residents currently living there. If a couple of 4 plexes go in there will be more legitimate users than parking spaces so when I come home at 11:30 PM and the space in front of my house and both adjacent spaces are full, I am going to park across my drive way? In front of somebody else’s house that I am not supposed to park in front of? Park in the next block over? Expect the bylaw enforcement officer to answer his phone at night? Where are Max’s employees going to park their work trucks? I am not going to drive around all night and I am not going to sell my car so my neighbor can park his. No matter how much some politicians think they can solve all problems by passing a law, 100 cars will not fit in 80 spaces. FWIW, I am a fiscal conservative social liberal. Not much to vote for here. As a boomer I would insist on adequate off street parking. Anybody renting a unit with no parking has to commit to not owing a car which is probably legally unworkable or enforceable so I am back to demanding parking be included with the development permission. If that drives up the cost of housing I guess you will have to move to Sooke or Edmonton…… In theory that would drive the cost of land down since nothing would sell and things would become affordable again. Which is equally unlikely.
I don’t think this is super new. The Streets and Traffic bylaw itself has been around for a long time and I don’t think Section 83 is a brand new amendment either. I admit I could be wrong on the latter point though. I don’t follow city council THAT closely.
It’d be interesting to know how Bylaw interprets “adjacent”. Are you allowed to overnight park on your block or literally only in front of the property you reside on. If the latter, then this is a very widely ignored bylaw.
Yes, and that’s why I’ve been heaping praise on the CoV politicians for passing this parking bylaw. The section 83 they passed prohibits overnight street parking (between 2-5am) unless it’s you parking right outside (or adjacent to) where you live.
Of course the current discussion has someone saying that anyone opposing street parking is a “conservative” and we should just let people park on the street because we don’t own it. It’s good to see Victoria politicians responding to the actual wishes of their constituents, which is to limit overnight street parking to owners of adjacent homes. Doubly nice to see that bylaw passed, because no one would accuse CoV council of being “conservatives”.
You might already have recourse. See section 83 of the bylaw (CoV). That said trying to exert owner like control over a street that you don’t own sounds like a recipe for stress.
Pretty bad driving and congestion issues today. Had to cancel an appointment in the Western Communities as it would have taken hours to get there and back. For those leaving the dowtown core have lots of gas and be careful.
https://youtu.be/Jmg86CRBBtw?si=vZAWKgg_kWIKe4Vn
Some people just don’t care what their house looks like, that’s why in certain neighborhoods you see so many POS houses with rotting fences, peeling paint, cars parked all over the front lawn etc.
> It’s amusing how conservatives get triggered into going full socialist as soon as they need the government to save them from being inconvenienced by the hoi polloi.
If one of your neighbours decides they’ve run out of parking space on their property, and they park their latest car on the street outside your house 24/7, would you take the same “whoopty shit, I don’t own the street” attitude?. Or would you get “triggered” and take a different stance?
It’s amusing how conservatives get triggered into going full socialist as soon as they need the government to save them from being inconvenienced by the hoi polloi.
It’s publicly owned (and funded), like a park or the beach. And so the public (including you) collectively determine how it’s used. Not developers. If you don’t care, fine, but there are plenty who do care.
Certain areas of Highlands have low capacity (gpm) wells and require holding tanks as well as water filters for minerals. You might also enquire about the septic field system as the land is mostly rocky and treed. Beautiful area that has been left in its natural state.
-Sorry to hear about you grand dad.
One of the neighbours told me to donate the regular books to Church Mouse. Going to see them on Saturday. Am checking out a place in the Highlands but still unsure about wells.
That’s the attitude, nothing stopping anyone from paying more and move somewhere that suits them be it less cars on the street or no multiplexes around them. Gotta pay to play, just like anything else in life.
I’m fine with letting the market decide whether there’s a demand for units with no parking space. If there isn’t, they won’t get built. If there is, there might be a few more cars parked on my street. Whoopty shit. I don’t own the street.
Average rents for one-bedroom condos in downtown Victoria have now slipped below $2,000 per month, a shift driven in part by rising vacancy rates. Two-bedroom units remain more resistant to change, but if vacancies hold, I expect their asking rents will begin to soften as well. Estimating the true vacancy rate downtown is difficult, yet current conditions suggest it is in the range of 5.5% to 7.5% for this time of year.
For those less familiar with what a vacancy rate represents: at present market rents, it typically takes three to four weeks to secure a new tenant. In practical terms, that means a potential loss of roughly one month’s rental income between leases.
Looks like this rate cutting cycle is over. 5 year fixed will be around 4% and variable a little under 4%. Looking at a little under $500 a month for every $100k mortgage.
Do you have a fireplace? I’ve dealt with the movie industry and they sometimes need a wall of books for a movie. Don’t think there’s much activity in Victoria, maybe a prop house in Vancouver. Antique books in very good condition are usually in demand depending on subject matter and author. Textbooks are firewood. All else fails, spread them out to several thrift stores, don’t dump them all on one.
Can anyone recommend a company to test well water, also does anyone have any suggestions as to where I can sell granddads law books. I tried the law school at the University and they did not want them for free. Seems everything is on computer these days. Half this house is filled with books and nobody seems to want them.
Nice, the ole’ gang is back. Totoro, Introvert and even Barrister (in a ludicrous role as “Inherited”). 🙂
All we need is Leo …
154 out of 221 units at the new University Heights complex are still empty. What a disaster.
I remember a while back Leo was lamenting that they didn’t build 12 storeys…
https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1pdtc6m/university_heights_rentals/
Well if the standard is whether it’s the “end of the world” or not…developers can add parking into their designs, and that also won’t be the “end of the world”
One of my pet peeves is how some home owners automatically default to the position that any change to their neighborhood will lower property values. Again these are claims without evidence.
https://youtube.com/shorts/9QXH-yB2U40?si=1Uq-c-rNj1kxhsgd
With the bike lanes installed on Shelbourne everyone who parked on Shelbourne is now parking on Scott Street infront of my parents’ home and it isn’t the end of the world. My parents use their driveway more often. I park on Ryan Street now next to the park and walk 45 seconds.
Those seem like higher end finishes, I would have guessed closer to $500? Maybe thursty knows..
Not in tune anymore with SFH construction costs these days but I would guess $350 a foot x 5,800 sq.ft. so around $2 million.
The missing middle stuff everyone is running slightly above budget (but within their contigency reserve). Haven’t seen anyone come in below budget yet.
Neighborhoods with mostly older houses that have single car driveways and basement suites are the primary issue.
Agreed. Many residential streets have very little street parking. And for good reason, they are very narrow and barely wide enough for two cars driving, let alone street parking. So adding street parking would be a daily problem for a lot of residential streets.
Street parking has its important uses, and that’s for commercial vehicles (trades, couriers, visitors) during daytime. But turning it into a parking lot for missing middle would ruin that.
Consequently, I’m glad we don’t have residences without parking on my street, and hope it stays that way. Kudos to the munis for adding parking spots as a requirement for new builds.
@Marko, how much do you think it costs to build something like 1416 Pinehurst Pl?
Claims without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
A single purchaser may claim they would avoid a property near a multi‑plex, but that is anecdotal. What matters is whether a significant portion of the market shares that view. If so, the effect may manifest as a MEASURABLE loss in value, or alternatively as an extended marketing period. Market conditions will dictate which outcome prevails.
In some cases, however, the measured loss lies within the margin of error in the marketplace. In those circumstances, the only professional conclusion is that the loss cannot be determined with reasonable certainty.
Seems reasonable that someone would want 798 St. Patrick because it is essentially a new home and a rancher in a great area. It is really nice inside and out and seems like it needs no work. It has no building on the other side of it with essentially complete privacy on the living side of the home.
The question is not whether someone would buy it, it is whether it would have sold for more without the triplex next to it. Maybe. Especially since the shared driveway to the three townhouses runs right beside the primary bedroom. That would be a negative for me.
You mean that someone put aside being next to a multiplex to buy something desirable? 🙂
House adjacent 786 St. Patrick sold for a lot of money (over $1.8 for 1,600 sq.ft. of 1919 yr built).
You mean the one level rancher 3 bed 2 bath (super high demand in OB) that has been renovated with over four hundred thousand dollars in upgrades including a new foundation, perimeter drains, updated electrical and plumbing, and insulation; rear addition with skylights ; new roof, new hardwood floors, new lighting, new kitchen countertops, a custom range hood, and an outdoor “She-Shed”.
And sold at assessed?
The study isn’t saying people notice every garden suite or distance does not change things. It’s looking at sales patterns. It found a stronger effect on higher-end homes that were very close to where laneway houses were added, and the effect faded with distance. By 250 metres it was much weaker.
100% agreed.
House adjacent 786 St. Patrick sold for a lot of money (over $1.8 for 1,600 sq.ft. of 1919 yr built).
I need to see more real-life data which we don’t have yet, but something tells me on re-sale people won’t mind being next to a fourplex as much as one would anticipate. Once again, the rundown older home is no longer there anymore.
No, what I am saying is this was a prime example of a brand new home in-between other brand new homes with zero chance of adjacent re-development.
That was a good buy for the buyer in my opinion. I’ve had clients buy new higher end spec home from the same builder and he does a really nice job top to bottom (ICF foundations, etc.). Therefore, no I don’t see any sort of premium paid (also when compared to other recent newer sales in Oak Bay that aren’t in-between new builds).
In the last few years, I’ve had a number of buyers concerned with earthquake safety and then at the end of the day they buy a $2 million dollar home that is in the worst possible spot in terms of an earthquake. I can see the same for being next to a multiplex. We don’t want to buy next to a multiplex but then their dream home pops up next to a brand new multiplex in South Oak Bay and they buy it. You can’t really go anywhere where these isn’t the risk of multiplexes.
Are you saying this was sold for a premium than what it would have if surrounded by teardowns?
Now you gotta deal with increased street parking in front of your house plus noise pollution from 4 families instead of one. Will pass on both and look for something where I will be safe from multiplexes built around me.
I can see what development happens immediately adjacent to your lot possibly having an impact (depending how it is done and what it replaces). The idea from that study that a laneway suite (similar to a garden suite in Victoria) could impact your homes value from 100 metres away and even at 250 metres away strains credibility. I literally have no idea how many garden suites are within a 250 metre radius of my house and could only nail the number down by looking at city plans or trespassing into people’s back yards….
Pick South Oak Bay. 100 metre radius could easily have 30 or more properties, 250 metre radius circa 200.
Most likely. However, these are the same people who are buying houses and making choices based on their beliefs. Consumer confidence/sentiment is a big driver of market prices.
In terms of who you pass on your walk, I don’t think that is the metric that matters. What matters to people is their perception of what it means to feel comfortable in their home and neighbourhood. This is why people are driving in from Langford – a SFH is still perceived as way better than a townhouse. Feelings matter more than objective facts because feelings are a big part of a sense of subjective well-being. And this is why many people are going to pay less for a home next to a fourplex in Oak Bay.
I think the negative impacts on quality of life due to density (residential) are a bit blown out of proportion by a lot of people, imo. As I said, I step out onto a cul-de-sac every day with over 500 units and barely see anyone. On the walk down from our building to the Songhees Waterway 90% of the time we pass no one. Sometimes we pass an old lady with her dog.
Significant enough to me that I do not want to be the owner first impacted. I’m probably okay to be the subsequent owner paying 3-7% less if it is the best I can find at the top of my affordability. And then there is the impact of days on market – just like buying on a busy road.
Oak Bay is full lanes. And full of higher value homes. Very likely that there will be a drop in the OB SFH property value with a missing middle built next door imo. Very unlikely to see a drop in value in Jubilee in the same scenario imo as the homes their have already been divided up for the most part and they are not all top end in value and most don’t have much privacy to start with. I think the Jubilee or Oaklands areas, for example, will not have devaluation from missing middle projects for the most part, and older homes may see an increase in land values.
Maybe some aspects. But the study uses high-quality sales data, geospatial detail, and multiple statistical models applied to a real zoning change. Laneway houses are a good proximate for a fourplex imo which likely have an even bigger impact on values in high end neighbourhoods than a laneway house depending on how much they impact privacy/character/parking in the minds of prospective buyers.
Yes. Personally I don’t mind living next to a fourplex. I’ve lived next to a triplex in a triplex unit and was very happy with it. I could also easily live in a condo. We’ve spent time in one recently and enjoyed the lack of maintenance and the more minimalist lifestyle.
Prime example, is sale of 2377 Zela last month. Brand new build surrounded by brand new SFH builds.
Begs the question what is the thought process if you are buying a property and the adjacent property is a brand new fourplex with small massing and no privacy concerns such as -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29063424/proposed-3-3333-henderson-rd-oak-bay-henderson?view=imagelist
If you are buying the property to the left of this brand multiplex (only two stories, small windows on the side, huge side yard offset) does that outweight the risk of buying next to a potential teardown? Or you simply pass on it because there is a multiplex next door?
Smart buyers are already doing this.
Most things that come out of the Universities these days are more than stupid.
That’s the other thing, out of many, the bylaws are constantly changes. The new COV bylaws for missing middle are a substantial change so one minute you are running a study were missing middle projects can be built without parking and now they require off-street parking.
Or substantially changes in height, etc.. which impact privacy.
full paper is online too if you look. Some of the assumptions and stats are problematic. It also pertains to a specific type of housing that doesn’t exist in most of Greater Victoria. Of course we have ADU’s allowed, but laneway houses need lanes, which by and large are absent here
When it comes to the high-end of the market 3-7% is such a small number it basically becomes noise. I recently did a listing presentation for a $4 million dollar listing and the 5 sold comparables all sold for >$500,000 less than original asking price.
There is absolutely no metric sale/assessment, appraisals, HPI, accounting for every single variable (size of lot, house, etc.) that will give you an accurate pricing data in the luxury market where you can make a scientific study work well.
Personally, I would much rather live next to the 6-plex that was proposed on Lansdowne Rd versus many of brand new SFHs in the Uplands. You have brand new homes in the Uplands that look like gas stations to purpose built cult following gathering places.
Finally, in the context of blanket re-zoning what is your alterantive? Move to Metchosin.
Your best option is to buy a home next to the 4,000 sq.ft. brand new mansion instead of the 6,000 sq.ft. brand new multiplex.
Did you read the full study – seems like maybe you didn’t? The abstract is just an overview which does not contain the data used.
They actually try multiple radii – 50m, 100m, 250m – and the results remain similar. Using a small radius is normal because most effects from nearby buildings fade quickly with distance.
The UBC study is not trying to predict what happens to one specific house. It looked at thousands of sales across five years to see if, on average, homes sell for more or less when a laneway house or small infill project is built very close by. This is a standard way researchers study real-estate trends.
The findings are that for most parts of the city and for most houses, there is no meaningful change in value when nearby infill is built or rebuilt to higher missing middle. Redevelopable properties may even go up in value. The only area where the study finds a price drop is for higher-priced homes located very close to a new laneway house. The effect is 3-7% to the negative.
The study does not claim that density destroys neighbourhoods or lowers citywide property values as you assume. It simply shows that buyer behaviour varies by location and by how close the new building is. Some buyers dislike added density right next door, even if the building is nicer than what was there before. Other buyers do not mind at all.
Your personal experience of a rundown property being replaced by something better can also be true. The study does not contradict that. It only measures average buyer behaviour across the whole city.
I’d say the study is realistic in my experience. In Uplands, if your neighbour has a 1930s home – fairly normal – and replaces it with a fourplex that now overlooks your backyard or into your dining room – you are going to have a harder time finding a buyer. I’m not going to buy there when I can buy somewhere else without this lack of privacy in the same neighbourhood given that I have the means to make this choice. In fact, I’m going to start looking for places which seem less likely to be redeveloped next door.
Also, regarding no parking. It has been addressed in the new COV OCP, see page #97/#98 -> https://www.victoria.ca/media/file/zoning-bylaw-2018
We love living in a condo so my plan is to build a missing middle project, move into a unit and rent the remainder and down the road if I need another unit for family it is there. Also, the move from the condo to a missing middle unit will eliminate the strata fees we currently pay.
When I look at all the missing middle projects being built there aren’t too many substantial privacy issues, imo, maybe -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29029383/b-786-st-patrick-st-oak-bay-south-oak-bay
It’s also a tradeoff you get rid of a rundown home, 99% of the time the builder pays for brand new fencing on your property line, etc., the strata is going to maintain the landscaping around the new project, etc.
COV also made efforts to address privacy issues by increasing the side yard offset to 4.5 meters if the multiplex has windows in the living areas facing the side neighbours. Builders will want to keep the side yard offset at 1.5 meters so they will put the living rooms/kitchens front/back.
My on the ground conclusion is in most scenarios missing middle will IMPROVE value of properties (specifically SFHs) nearby and sometimes even adjacent is a run down rat infested home is coming down.
Unless it’s impacting privacy of the SFH, that is key.
As someone with healthcare background and a masters in health care admin from UBC (I am familiar with studies) this was a dumb study in my opinion. No matter how many control variables you have real estate isn’t a science, not even close. Their externality variable is also a random number they picked (why 100 meters? why not 50 or 150), imo, and finally the interpretation is not really statistically significant especially in the context of real estate.
Here is my on the ground real life take. A lot of these missing middle projects are replacing rundown poorly maintained homes (sometimes rat infested) with old run down cars parking infront of them. Muncipalities are also forcing builders to upgrade infrastructure such as sidewalks (including upgrades in sidewalk design espeically on corner lots).
This project is now finished and if you walk by it I think it is big improvement from what was there before, aesthetically speaking -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28706346/1-1789-emerson-st-victoria-jubilee
Residential development (without commercial) also barely adds any traffic in the grand scheme of things. I live on cul-de-sac with over 500 condo units and when I walk outside of my building I rarely see anyone on the sidewalk and the occassional car goes by and that is 500 units! Here is the google streetview on my cul-de-sac from this summer -> https://maps.app.goo.gl/528iUXED5Ndbf1X9A (how many people do you see and that is July!).
A fourplex or sixplex is not going to impact anyones quality of life. There is a 5-plex on Ryan Street close to my parents house and in 9 years I’ve seen one person going in/out.
If you own a teardown your market value might improve if the fourplex or sixplex close to you proves to be financially viable. If you own a non-teardown home and it’s worth $1.5 million +/- in Oak Bay I don’t see how missing middle townhomes close to you selling for $1.5 million +/- will impact your market value. If anything they will increase your value as the market will look at the scenario “hmmm, if townhomes are $1.5 million why wouldn’t I just buy that older well maintained SFH and pay $1.6 million and have a freehold property.”
Finally, if you own a brand new SFH it is also going to go up in value because teardowns are being torn down to build multiplexes, not SFHs; therefore, you will have much less competition and there is always going to be demand from the well off for newer SFHs.
My on the ground conclusion is in most scenarios missing middle will IMPROVE value of properties (specifically SFHs) nearby and sometimes even adjacent is a run down rat infested home is coming down.
On the MM-front, I suspect we just need to find the correct balance of massing, parking, and green space. Bylaws will likely need to change to allow underground parking (without bylaw penalty) and perhaps trade height for additional site coverage. I think the municipalities are already recognizing this and adjusting.
Personally, I have a general idea of what I’d like to live in as I approach retirement, and it isn’t a big SFH. I really like the idea of downsizing into a new MM unit, and I’m considering replacing my tired SFH with something that could house me and potentially my kids families (in the future).
Fixed rates going up…
There is a difference between hypothetical and reasonably foreseeable. Parking and infrastructure issues are reasonably foreseeable based on blanket up-zoning. Rolling out missing middle without parking policies and infrastructure plans is just plain foolish imo.
It really depends on the neighbourhood. In an upscale neighbourhood it will decrease nearby property values. In a median or lower value area it will have a slightly negative or no effect.
Luckily we have a recent, local, peer reviewed study out of UBC by well-regarded researchers on this topic with data that explains this effect. For properties in the upper 25% of value the negative impact of ADU on a neighbouring property, for example, is 4.7%. On a three million home you are losing $141,000 when your neighbour “gently densifies” their lot.
Reason for this is that higher end homes have owners who are generally valuing privacy and character more highly.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119021000875
Groot, nowhere did I mention new. I wasn’t referring to new construction.
If it’s taller than the house it’s replacing and impacting privacy to your house and yard then yes it will impact values. That goes for any neighborhood.
Fairfield (admittedly more mid than upscale) has had a good number of tri and four plexes scattered around and has had that for years. I’d be interested if Marko or anyone knowledgeable has seen that adjacent prices are noticeably lower.
I do agree that for a sufficiently large development there might be a value impact on adjacent properties, just not sure you’d see it around a fourplex. Especially because the fourplex would usually be replacing something old and rundown.
Hypothetical problems.
As long as developers are free to add parking I am ok with the limited cases where they can opt not to.
Totoro makes a lot of sense. A good handle how things actually work. Back in Toronto they seem to have built more condo units then there are people to buy them or even rent them now that immigration has been cut back, Is the same thing going on in Victoria with lots of buildings looking like they are going up?
It can go either way. In an upscale SFH neighbourhood a fourplex next door will probably devalue your property. In an area that has rezoned for ex. high density condos from SFHs next to transit lines rezoning can property values, especially for a group of neighbours willing to sell together.
Blanket rezoning has not produced any noticeable price increase overall in Victoria as far as I can tell. Median prices actually dropped afterward due to broader market conditions. Uplift may happen in the future, but it is not guaranteed. When everyone with a SFH can build a fourplex it still doesn’t make it make sense economically in most areas.
What the stats show is that very few SFHs are being built these days. The price of SFHs will probably go up faster than other types when market conditions improve because of supply/demand not redevelopment potential.
Is that a reason not to think long-term and avoid foreseeable problems?
“perceived property values” – lol. Real world of course development or even the possibility of development increases property values.
Honestly the pace of development is so slow it’ll take years for any of the “problems” to manifest
REAddict, prospective buyers often weigh two very different options within the same neighborhood: a newly built townhome or an older single-family house. Rarely are both new. The choice usually comes down to whether the buyer values the turnkey ease of new construction or the potential—and challenges—of a fixer-upper.
I explained this in an earlier post.
I’ve heard that drive isles such as the one at 786 St. Patrick won’t be allowed anymore amongst other things.
Price side, in terms of design, I quite like some of the two level corner lot townhome projects -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/29063424/proposed-3-3333-henderson-rd-oak-bay-henderson
In my opinion they seem very reasonable in terms of height and massing.
Oak Bay has a new OCP going through imminently which will require all MM projects to go through a few more levels of approval. I’m not a fan of the ones built in OB so far (except for a couple). A lot of the existing projects have been ‘designed by the bylaws’ – meaning the bylaw is quite restrictive, so you build what you can (aesthetics and neighbours be damned).
Townhouses and single family homes can absolutely have the same buyer pool if it’s a question of price point for the buyer. If you have between x and y dollars to spend you can find yourself looking at both and maybe duplexes too and even condos.
A neighbour of mine just put his house up for sale. Under $849,000. Response at the wildly popular first open house (just under 90 attendees) was it’s a bit small. Well if you want an affordable home something has to give right? Older home, smaller home, smaller lot but people don’t want to compromise.
CMH funding missing middle?… I sure hope not. CMHC should stick to funding the big purpose-built rental projects, which end up providing secure rentals to large numbers of households. Small time developers don’t deserve financing help for these mom-n-pop scale projects. If they can’t get financing, they should step aside and invest their (limited) money elsewhere.
Too many fees/consultants on the city side of things as well. Maybe CHMC steps up and starts financing these as rental projects and then maybe it makes sense if finance terms are attractive enough.
When it comes to missing middle I don’t think it’s possible to build them any cheaper. Small 4 or 6 units aren’t really going to get much of a price break on materials @labour . It is what it is
A new townhouse and a new single-family home may share geography, but they’re designed to attract fundamentally different buyer profiles. Treating them as interchangeable distorts both market analysis and buyer expectations.
Townhouses trade land for affordability and convenience; single-family homes trade affordability for space and autonomy. Each product type competes within its own buyer pool, not directly against the other.
Median family income varies widely across neighborhoods, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. Housing prices are shaped by far more than local earnings. Larger-than-usual downpayments, cash purchases, and other capital flows often override income-based measures. Attempting to anchor neighborhood prices to income alone proves elusive, because markets respond to wealth, credit access, and buyer behavior as much as wages.
What is a median family though? Would a couple earning 80k each count as median family?
In most areas from what I am seeing a three bedroom townhome missing middle product is approx. 1/2 the cost of a brand new build SFH. It certainly isn’t affordable to the average family, but it is half the cost none the less? That is something imo.
I don’t know what to make of all the narratives that are being pushed in the media. Every day the media is pumping stories like this
‘A literal shoe box’: Why some Toronto renters are avoiding new builds -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=6pg7mHppXOE
but recently when I had two vacancies come up (a nice 600 sq.ft. one bedroom in Vic West and 388 sq.ft. studio downtown with no parking) there was way way more interest on the downtown studio. The media pushes this narrative no one wants to live in these things, but the demand is there.
Similar to missing middle, I do think families will live in the 3-bedroom townhome orientated product at the right price.
While I am support of missing middle housing, I also don’t see the value and I am advising my clients against purchasing in most such projects
Why Missing Middle Multiplexes Units Don’t Deliver Value for Buyers | Real Estate Victoria BC – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA8jJFrBiLA
but at the right price point I think they would be great. Whether builders can deliver the product at a value where I would recommend it to my clients remains to be seen. I don’t think the margins are big enough to do so.
The market value of a missing middle home will vary across neighborhoods, but its purpose is consistent: to provide housing that competes with traditional starter homes on standard lot sizes. By doing so, it expands the number of houses available at the entry level of a neighborhood.
Take James Bay as an example. An older starter home, modestly updated but sitting on a 4,500‑square‑foot lot, may be priced alongside a newer or substantially remodeled home on a much smaller 1,900‑square‑foot lot. The effect is to anchor both properties at the same baseline neighborhood price. Missing middle housing adds to this baseline stock, increasing the number of homes accessible to buyers at the entry level and strengthening affordability within the community.
It feels like there is actually no solution to housing.
Land and construction prices are too high to create new family suitable housing that is affordable to median income families here to own. Missing middle does not solve that. Having an initiative to divide existing homes might be more affordable for end use housing.
In any event, new housing is more expensive than existing housing per square foot. Most families don’t want small condos. When the existing SFHs are redeveloped into four-plexes they are not affordable. I guess you get three extra units that are unaffordable to median income folks vs. one SFH. This trickle down of supply – I don’t know – seems like some small effect but not enough to counteract land/construction costs overall to result in improved affordability for owned homes that fit families.
I don’t think Victoria is going to become more affordable for median families to own, except through price stagnation and wage growth – which is currently occurring. The airbnb restrictions probably helped stop appreciation, along with more UVic campus housing, fewer international students, lower immigration overall and a lot of purpose built rentals. So there is that.
December 8, 2025
Month Dec Dec
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 102 421
New Listings 160 431
Active Listings 2,974 2,291
btw, with the new OCP voted through in September by COV there is now a requirement for off-street parking. The projects you see in the COV without parking went through before the new OCP/bylaws.
There is missing middle project going up in the Oaklands area with 6 off-street parking spots for 6 units (and bicycle storage lockers for each unit) and neighbors are still upset. If every unit had two parking spots people would still be upset.
No matter what argument you take away there is a brand new one that follows. First it was condos are being built for the rich then when developers switched to building rentals then the rents are too expensive. Then if you made it affordable rentals it would change the character of the neighborhood. It is never ending.
and I would be 100% okay with these arguments if these people came out with tangible alternatives like let’s clear cut from Langford to Sooke and add new SFH subdivisions with thousands of homes, but people are not in favor of that either.
It feels like there is actually no solution to housing.
That’s because development negatively impacts people’s quality of life and perceived property values.
After observing and considering the real world impacts, I’m opposed to the blanket missing middle rezoning without off-street parking. Not a nimby btw. Just seems like poor planning with foreseeable push-back and downsides.
I think provincially mandated rezoning for fourplexes and above should be applied to a certain percent of a municipalities land base and that there should be consideration of what is most practical – or ideally on a regional district basis if that coordination is ever possible – and greater density should be planned around existing amenities and transit in zones if we are going to expect people to have fewer cars. Like why permit fourplexes without parking in Gorden Head cul-de-sacs where street parking is already an issue and nothing is in walking distance?
Let the remainder of the SFH-zoned areas be limited to duplexes and garden suites. Too much change too soon and too little attention to infrastructure and parking – like have a system to ensure there is actually enough parking based on data and permits instead of leaving that problem to the future and expecting people will go car-free.
and Rustad ran on abolishing Bill 44, no? My point is NDP voters in Victoria don’t really have an alternative to vote. I can’t see these people voting Con even if they promise to abolish Bill 44.
I find it crazy how literally everyone becomes a NIMBY the minute something is proposed in their neighbourhood. Even developers become NIMBYs when it involved their personal residence. Then when it gets built you literally never hear about it ever again.
Who has ever mentioned these townhomes since they were built as impacting their life in a negative way? However, when they were being proposed the opposition was insane including neighbours taking it to court -> https://victoria.citified.ca/news/judge-nixes-b-c-supreme-court-lawsuit-against-fairfield-townhome-project/
NDP supporters are generally government workers, bureaucrats that want a meaningless job that pays a six figure salary for accomplishing absolutely nothing while they put in time waiting for their fat pensions. They love big government. They also don’t like to get their hands dirty. It’s a mindset I do not possess.
Thanks. One less thing to think about!
NIMBY cuts across party lines. Here in Victoria most of the NIMBYs are NDP voters simply because there are a lot more NDP supporters than anything else . The Con supporters I know (bit of an endangered species here in Fairfield) are just as NIMBY, if not more so.
I think missing middle is a good rental product, just can’t see it being popular with buyers. 750/sqft for a wood frame condo with no parking, no amenities, no views and likely very limited private outdoor space.
I am seeing more and more opposition growing online against missing middle as these projects pop up in neighbourhoods, but I would think most of the opposition against missing middle/density is traditionally NDP voters.
Ousted Rustad I believe ran on a platform of scrapping Bill 44 and replacing with something else.
It’s an interesting dynamic, no? I guess the NDP is calculating they can pick up more of the younger vote and the pissed off NDP boomers against missing middle don’t have an alternative option to vote for?
Not every property is purchased with the intention of making money. Some are just for pure lifestyle and enjoyment, really no different than paying for luxury vacations couple times a year.
Hate to say it but I have to agree with Patrick on this. I don’t see any value proposition in these builds.
1101 – 630 Montreal, Originally listed at $3.5 million in 2024. Sold Nov 2025 at $2.45 million. Was purchased in 2015 for $2.3 million.
Patrick, ya missing middle was never going to be cheap . I would say the missing middle is a crapped out old house a young couple fix as they go .
can anyone tell me if #1101, 630 Montreal Street sold? condo in the Harbourside. Thank you.
I notice that the missing middle link from Marko talks about the “Nordic” countries and their culture of cycling (low car ownership) and high levels of “happiness”.
Car ownership in Canada (677 cars/1000 people) isn’t that much different from some of the “Nordic” countries. Finland (666), Iceland (639), Denmark (478), Sweden (470).
Moreover, the main reason that some have less cars per person is the high cost of owning a car. For example, taxes on new cars in Denmark make them cost twice what we pay in Canada.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_motor_vehicles_per_capita
I walked by this missing middle project this morning -> https://www.nordicliving.ca/
Sixplex on a 4,200 sq.ft. lot., no parking.
> Sets a dangerous precedent.
I’d be worried if I was a missing middle developer hoping to sell strata units for $800k+. When a reno’d james bay SFH with parking can be had for $988k, I think these “luxury” (expensive) missing middle units will flop.
I predict missing “middles” will become known for missing “buyers”. 🙂
Your hypothetical pos rental? Probably around 1.3
So what’s a property with a lot 5 times the size, a house double the size, in a better area (North Oak Bay) worth? Sets a dangerous precedent.
Right. Compare it to the unit on Emerson discussed last week, where it’s a strata unit, with street parking, for $749k+GST.
Rendall is a SFH, freehold with land, parking and reno’d. In James Bay! For $988k, that’s much better.
Pics: https://tours.snaphouss.com/126rendallstreetvictoriabc?b=0
Thanks for that point of view Maggie. I walk by it often and it is an ugly house, but a hell of a good looking condo. I suppose a 1050 sq ft 3 bedroom condo in a good location, with parking (and no strata council), would go for $988,000
This ain’t Langford!
Seems a bit steep to me, but I’d still take it over a strata. And if I lived on a lot less than 1800 square feet, I’d lose the patch of grass in the front and put in some lilacs.
Sub million in James bay, I can see the appeal.
Actually, the price for 126 Rendall looks pretty reasonable to me, considering you have your own fee simple lot. At least if this link is accurate – it’s been totally redone inside:
https://rennie.com/listings/rendall-126-st-victoria-1020716
Was it completely redone? I only saw the property assessment photo.
No, an equally ugly 1971 three story apartment block. And with 525 sq ft up &down it is exactly as you described it.
126 Randall- What a piece of crap. A million bucks for that, I wouldn’t pay 200 grand. Are people crazy? 1800 sq. ft lot, ugly as sin. Does it have a view of heaven?
Until the Butlerian Jihad?
$988,000
Yup, it’s AI generated. What an arsehole thing to put on youtube.
These YouTube channels are proliferating like a disease. Some of them use AI generated videos of the “speaker” which are obviously fake (repetitive facial movements, etc.), but when you look in the comments, people are responding to it and arguing about it as if it’s real. There was a particularly egregious one with “Heather Cox Richardson”, but it appears to have been taken down.
Fans of reality should try to ignore the next few centuries.
Bond yields ripping, almost back to 3%!
Not sure this sounds completely credible. Few subscribers and a lot of videos claiming to be Warren Buffet.
Here’s something you don’t hear everyday. Warren Buffet speaking about Mark Carney.
https://youtu.be/guS4WhYzPTw?si=exI6v5dWdNQwHq7P
Would somebody please tell me what 126 Rendall sold for?
Vicre, I guess we shall part ways , as I c nothing dire with Canadas economy and lots of opportunity out there . Only 1 of us can be right lol
It’s actually really starting to bite now. Will be a tough next couple of years I think. Great for those with secure jobs wanting to upgrade or do major renos. Lots more hungry trades now, especially ones from the lower mainland looking to undercut locals.
Voters often want change, but the opposition hasn’t demonstrated the cohesion or credibility to manage a business‑oriented economy. In British Columbia, the NDP has historically benefited from that dynamic—positioning itself as the “least risky” option when the alternatives look fragmented or ideologically incoherent.
In BC, business groups and investors tend to prioritize stability over ideology. Even if they disagree with NDP policy, they often prefer predictability to the uncertainty of a fractured opposition. The better option is to stick with the NDP until the opposition demonstrates competence, rather than risk instability.
What the conservative party needs is a leader that will purge the party of special interest groups. That will take years to accomplish until then they will remain a party that spends most of its time herding cats rather than one that can presents a cohesive economic plan. Without that, the party remains a protest movement rather than a governing option.
Ya lots of great economic news coming out , Canadians hissy fit over tariffs was totally overblown . Now let’s get an early election here in bc and get a business friendly government in and get rid of all the housing gibberish the ndp brought in
Those are in the range of a rounding error.
.
Good news for Victoria economy, November unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% . That’s the lowest of any city measured (except trois -rivière’s Quebec)
https://winnipegsun.com/news/which-cities-are-struggling-most-november-unemployment-rates
Also good news for BC economy, as November unemployment rate fell from 6.6% to 6.4%
https://www.timescolonist.com/national-news/heres-a-quick-glance-at-unemployment-rates-for-november-by-province-11583592
And good news for Canadian economy…
“ Canada’s November unemployment rate falls to 6.5% as job growth smashes expectations
The economy has gained 181,000 jobs in the past three months”
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-unemployment-rate-falls-job-growth-beats-expectations?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FP%20BREAKING%20NEWS%201205&utm_term=FP_breaking_alert
The above seems like a pretty sensible summary. I am waiting to see what the spring brings. Sarah says that a lot new houses should be coming up in the spring.