August: Market weakens somewhat to end the summer
Is it September already? Well better put up a new post before the site crashes loading over 1000 comments. As is obvious, I haven’t been keeping up with the updates lately. As mentioned in the comments, some other commitments mean I’m scaling back activity here but will return to puting up the monthly numbers in a timely manner going forward.
After a couple months of decent sales activity in the spring, July and August were slower, especially for condo sales. While you could argue that single family sales have been slowly trending upwards since the 2022 low after interest rates rose, condo sales have been struggling to consistently improve and are currently back to that fairly low level. You just can’t escape the drag from poor affordability in the condo market, where buyers are more likely to be buying with income rather than wealth from selling out of more expensive cities.
Combining all sales together shows we’re in a weak spot again after generally better performance in the last 12 months. Remember this series is seasonally adjusted, so this has nothing to do with the fact that the spring market is over and absolute sales are expected to drop towards the end of the year.
New listings have pulled back a little in the last two months, but still quite high relative to the historical norm. Many of these are re-lists though, which is why inventory hasn’t been exploding upwards.
Seasonally adjusted inventory is trending upwards, but barely. Absolute inventory levels will drop from now on into the winter but we’re taking that normal seasonality out to unveil the underlying trend.
Sluggish sales, healthy new listings, and slowly rising inventory means our market has been trending weaker the last couple months, reversing the gains we saw in the spring.
Combining the two measures you can see that we swung back to the cool side of balanced, a reversal from where we were in June.
Prices for single family and condos have been drifting downwards a bit lately, though townhouse pricing is higher than it’s been in 3 years.
If you’re wondering where the sales/assessment chart is, I currently don’t have the data to update that, but it may return in the future.
It seems the broader economic malaise is dragging on the housing market a bit lately. That same malaise is also why the market is betting that the Bank of Canada will cut rates on Wednesday, which might help add a bit of demand back. But affordability levels still aren’t at a level that would support a sustained recovery in prices, so I wouldn’t expect any huge moves in either direction.
September: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/10/05/september-small-sales-uptick-but-condos-remain-weaker/
I have done a few appeals. One went to the second level (PAAB). I was shocked by the stupidity of the arguments the original assessor presented to the PAAB.
PAAB sided with me, so it I’m assuming they saw through at least some of the nonsense.
The units are literally side by side and identical. The only difference is one looks out onto Value Village 15′ feet south of the other, but 99% of individuals would find the outlook identical; therefore, for all intents purposes the units are as close of comparables as you’ll ever find in real estate.
Here is what is boils down to. There are only a handful of units of units without parking at Ironworks; therefore, the vast majority of transactions in the building include parking with the unit. As BC Assessments is too lazy to account for parking my unit is assessed as if it has parking based on “comparables”; therefore, assessed at the exact same amount as the unit next door with parking. Whether parking is $40,000 or $80,000 market value is not the point but that would require some intelligence to compute.
Versus focusing in on BC Assessments numbers maybe it would be better to spend energy elsewhere like reviewing the actual comparable sales and making sure you are buying a quality product. When I show a client a condo, for example, I rather spend my time giving my thoughts on the particular strata corporation (there are buildings I’ve sold more 10 units in over the years) and explaining to them the liquid to air heat pump in the condo unit and how it works, maintenance involved, etc., than going over a completely useless BC Assessment number. People go to discussion around BC Assessment when they don’t have true value to provide.
I just looked up a few of the other units I own and here are some of the ratios market value to BC Assessment
300k/358k (no parking)
475k/375k (parking) – Promontory
325k/379k (no parking) – 834
450k/400k (parking)
Yes, BC Assessments has an 834 (834 Johnson) unit without parking assessed higher than a unit at the Promontory with parking (Saghalie Rd), complete joke. Somehow a crappier unit in a crappier older building in a much worse location without parking has a higher assessment.
.> re: parking not measured in assessments
Of course, but there’s lots of factors they don’t measure in assessments. Not just parking, but other things, like recent or interior renos, nuanced quality of “view” or sun exposure, lot usability etc.
There’s nothing special about parking in that list. The point being, you start with the assessment value, realizing that it doesn’t measure those factors, so you should add them in yourself.
But I once had a RE agent who took the attitude that “assessments are useless” , which struck me as self-serving nonsense. The best explanation for many RE agents behavior and approach is self-serving “laziness”. So it would be best for them if their clients didn’t bother with assessments as they wouldn’t need to explain them.
Sure there are nuances, but the availability of parking or not is a pretty big deal that had better be taken into account, otherwise the system is pretty screwy. I don’t know if the value of a parking spot in his building is $40k or $60k, and that’s not the point. The point is simple. If 2 units are otherwise quite comparable (and yes that’s subjective, but as close to objectivity as we can come here is cookie-cutter condos of same size, same building, etc., even with remaining variables), then obviously the one with parking should be assessed higher than the one without. Yes the assessments are for tax purposes, so what? They don’t have to value each condo in the building exactly, but there should be some rational basis for their relative values, otherwise if we don’t even try for that, let’s just throw out the system and come up with something else.
Maybe Marko’s example here is extreme & ignores some nuances (who knows), but it makes the point, even if there are some remaining slight variables in the units and even if parking isn’t precisely $60k (which, BTW, I would think are all things Marko actually has a very good grasp on):
They shouldn’t even be used for that. The inaccuracy is insane.
A parking stall in all these new PBR builds is not inclusive in the rental agreement. Its an extra monthly addon.
Peter, that’s not what I’m saying.
The assessments are designed for taxation purposes—not for determining individual market value. Using them outside that context is a misapplication of their intended function.
As for the value of a parking stall, it’s far more nuanced than simply throwing out a number like $60,000. Why not $40,000? Why not $80,000? MJ’s estimate is entirely subjective, based on his personal experience. That’s not a reliable benchmark for anyone else.
And here’s the contradiction: MJ claims the assessments are inaccurate, yet he selectively uses them to support his argument. You can’t discredit a source and then lean on it when it suits your narrative. That’s not analysis—that’s cherry-picking.
Thankfully we have the mute button so I don’t have to read complete false information every day.
I own a studio unit in Ironworks without parking. There are six units in the entire building without parking. My studio without parking is assessed at 358k (market value 300k) and the IDENTICAl neighboring unit WITH parking is assessed at 358k (market value around 350k).
Curious as how no parking on my unit is “captured.”
Not all of the provinces use the same assessment system as BC. If Ontario assessments are out by a decade as you say, then it sounds like they are using a base year. All properties are assessed as at say 2015 values.
This is mostly a cost savings issue for the government as they don’t have to update a large portion of the assessment roll. Unlike BC that reassesses every year.
Marko can speak for himself, but I imagine he’s raising the simple scenario where BC Assessment isn’t doing that based on comparable sales, and so no, it’s not captured. For instance, say I have a unit in the building assessed at $500k, but my neighbour’s unit of comparable size is assessed at $520k even though it comes with parking worth $60k. And no relevant sales history in either case. Now, you might say, the assessment system wouldn’t be that dumb, or if it were, it could be easily and swiftly corrected, but I doubt it’s either easy or swift, based on my own experiences with it.
I fought assessments I think 3 times, 1 of those times the proceeding was straightforward and logical, both of the other 2 situations I had to shake my head at the intransigence of the initial assessor I had to deal with and then the illogical arguments entertained at the hearing. I did ‘win’ all 3, for what that’s worth.
The system is only as good as the inputs, and then when you’re putting the system to the test as you’re entitled to do, it’s only as good as the people involved, which means it’s pretty fallible.
MJ often raises the issue of parking stalls as a valuation factor. My rebuttal is straightforward: if BC Assessment is using comparable sales within the same building, then any premium or discount associated with parking is already reflected in those sales. The impact is captured—not isolated—through the comparables.
As I have said befor, homeowners frequently renovate, upgrade, or allow their properties to deteriorate over time. If BC Assessment hasn’t inspected the property recently—or ever—the assessed value may diverge significantly from actual market value. That’s not a flaw in the system; it’s a reflection of how mass appraisal works. The model relies on broad data inputs and statistical assumptions, not individual site visits. For taxation purposes, this approach aims for equity across the tax base.
Unfortunately, many lenders have adopted assessed values as a proxy for market value, often without understanding the limitations. This issue is compounded by the AI-driven valuation models they rely on, which frequently ingest assessment data as a core input. The result is a feedback loop that can distort actual market conditions, especially in cases where a property has been significantly upgraded, neglected, or simply hasn’t been inspected in years.
The federal government is currently reviewing the widespread use of AI-driven applications, recognizing that their unchecked deployment may lead to distortions in the marketplace. This is particularly relevant in real estate, where automated valuation models—often built on assessment data—can misrepresent actual market conditions.
When these tools are used at scale by lenders and institutional players, they risk reinforcing flawed assumptions and amplifying systemic inaccuracies. It’s a timely reminder that while AI can enhance efficiency, it cannot replace professional judgment, especially in nuanced valuation contexts.
Maggie, at the first level of appeal—known as the Property Assessment Review Panel (PARP)—is composed of laypersons appointed by the provincial government. They’re meant to represent a cross-section of the community, often with general familiarity with real estate but not necessarily professional appraisal or assessment credentials. Their role is to provide an accessible, peer-based review of assessment disputes, focusing on fairness and reasonableness rather than technical rigor.
It’s only at the second level, the Property Assessment Appeal Board (PAAB), where things get more formal. That’s where you’ll encounter members with deeper expertise in valuation, law, and assessment methodology. The PAAB functions more like a quasi-judicial tribunal, and decisions there can set precedent or delve into complex valuation issues—paired sales, highest and best use, depreciation modeling, and so on.
So at the first level you can tell them about the road pot holes along your street and how that should lower your assessment.
At the second level—the Property Assessment Appeal Board (PAAB)—the tone shifts. This is a quasi-judicial tribunal composed of members with deeper expertise in valuation, law, and assessment methodology. Here, precedent matters. So does evidence.
If you’re appealing at this level, subjective impressions won’t be enough. You’ll need to support your claim with market data—completed sales, paired comparisons, or modeling that demonstrates a credible basis for a lower value. Without that, your argument risks being dismissed as hearsay.
Don’t feel bad, all Ontario assessments are over 10 years out of date. The provincial government appears to believe that homeowners think that freezing assessments will keep their property taxes down.
They can’t even correctly assess for incredibly simple things like unit has or doesn’t have parking which is upwards of a $60,000 value downtown.
I’ve had one experience attempting to dispute an assessment, and the person I spoke with seemed completely impervious to facts. I’ll never try again.
Getting there. You can find downtown condos now renting for $2,000 +/- for around $400,000 +/-.
I have a studio at Ironworks that has a market value of $300,000 +/- and I just re-rented it for $1,650.
Not going to lie to you, this is something I devote zero attention to. Before I get out of my car I look at the assessment as I know my buyers will reference it and I should know what it is so I don’t look dumb in-front of my clients but I put zero value in assessments.
Earlier this year I also ended up challenging an assessment on one of my properties by a $400,000 reduction (I asked for a reduction of $700,000) and that entire process further cemented my opinion that assessments and BC Assessment are completely useless.
Video of that experience here -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_Oy6wsTrOc
In terms of the general market I also prefer other metrics vs sale price to assessed so it isn’t something I follow on that level either.
Right now I have a listing where we’ve had an offer and the buyers refuse to come up above assessment and they’ve indicated through their agent assessment is the max they will pay. There is a similar cheaper home listed close by almost where the asking price is almost $200,000 below assessment….like why don’t they just go buy that one and get a great deal?
The difficult market conditions are definitively muting this news a bit! These zoning changes also don’t get past the bureaucracy and costs of obtaining a DP and BP. That being said I personally purchased a missing middle property recently in one of these village node areas that now allows up to 6 stories figuring this vote would go through. I don’t plan to re-develop for the time being but I think there is a good buying opportunity for missing middle right now. After two years of searching I finally found something I liked (>60′ lot width, no trees, flat, great area). I am not sure if I am going to do something super simple like three stories on slab, no elevator, etc., or go for something like the small building at 1615 Bay Street (surface parking below the building and than 3 to 5 stories above). 1615 Bay Street is very much has a Peatt Rd vibe; however, economical to build as no excavating/underground parkade.
If it is something that interests you lots of info out there in terms of following architects/developers on various social media platforms.
Here is a podcast with the developer (and his consultant) of 1789 Emerson -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJvp-BHQZQs The first 30 minutes are good info and the second half is basically them trying to pitch the project.
Nice thing about allowing this is allows smaller builder/developers into the marketplace, the Emerson developers notes he is 30 yrs old in the podcast.
With land assemblies and 2 to 5 year re-zoning processes you get stuck with only big players in the marketplace like Abstract & Aryze.
Victoria OCP. Lots of density potentially available for most lots in Victoria. So on a 10,000 ft2 lot in Victoria, you can build a 5,000 ft2 SFH …OR 16,000 ft2 to 35,000 ft2 for Multi-Unit Buildings. One would have to go through the fine print.
I believe this will radically change the density in the City.
@Marko, you have your ear to the market? Are developers super excited or more muted given the current market situation?
No. I’m just deliberately obtuse.
It is hard to know whether you are more crass or stupid. No mater, they go hand in hand.
I saw MJ’s post about Reddit. As I’ve said before, Victoria continues to buck the trend compared to other cities. We’ve been fortunate—between steady PBR construction and a high concentration of government workers for a city our size, our unemployment rate remains one of the lowest in Canada.
That’s kept a lot of tradespeople busy, but I’m still floored by the cost of renovations here. Even with strong demand and steady work, the pricing feels detached from reality.
I doubt we’ll see much relief in renovation costs until unemployment starts to climb. As long as tradespeople stay fully booked, pricing power remains firmly in their hands—and Victoria’s low jobless rate isn’t giving them any reason to sharpen their pencils.
Thanks Marko. This comment jumped out at me. 6% gross rental yield should be the absolute minimum for a condo.
Marko, what’s your reading these days on sales price to assessed value on detached houses in the core? I realize it’s a range, but any thoughts would be welcome.
Yes…I have a mirror in each of the three baths.
You come across as a very weak individual. Its good to have confidence and self importance in life.
There’s a mute button over to the far upper right. If you click it I will automagically disappear.
Some interesting Reddit threads I am coming across -> https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/1nxk3ai/sell_investment_condo_at_230k_loss_or_rent_out_at/
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstateCanada/comments/1nxrhmi/should_i_sell_my_condo_in_delta_bc_or_keep_it_as/
New OCP went through -> https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/victoria-signs-off-on-controversial-new-official-community-plan-11301611
Do you even own a mirror?
It was bad enough wading through your endless stream of self important BS when Leo was adding information to this site, but now…
Max, if you don’t have an answer – just say you don’t know. I don’t expect that you should know everything.
All I wanted to know is if anyone has had this done before. You haven’t that’s fine. Move on Max.
Well then I would suggest you pull your head out of your ass and figure it for yourself like a big boy would.
Never asked about condos – as I’m thinking of doing it for a house.
They don’t handle it that way man. Could you imagine the strata council if you were to just start fogging that shit out of the unit.
I’m at the back end… We just put the units back together. I’m not a mould specialist or anything.
Not talking about air scrubbers.
https://youtube.com/shorts/FtaX43rRolU?si=914X7bFhN4DRNNZX
Well, I don’t actually know how many times it fails. I just get a work order with the professional air quality certificate attached.
Given the topography of the land and elevations to the sewer connection…Its the expense of the machine work, trucking, foundation forms and the concrete that goes in it, perimeter drains and rain water leads, plumbing rough in, sand fill for the slab on grade, compaction slab prep 6 mil poly, cement finishers and boom pump along with the concrete that goes into the slab.
Now you can truck in and assemble the prefab.
I’m not even including any financing or municipal expenses.
So Max, how many times does the air safe quality fail?
I don’t think so either Thursty. This has a potential of cutting municipal jobs as fewer municipal inspections and approvals have to be done. But isn’t that what the public wants? Faster approvals, faster construction time, consistent and superior construction, and a cost estimate that won’t go grossly over budget?
That’s why Surrey is so important. If Surrey allows them – why aren’t we. The marketplace will win out.
I don’t think we will c a whole lot of prefabs hitting backyards and such anytime soon . I think municipality’s will continue regulate the hell out of it. I’m not too hopeful on that front
There are a handful of publicly traded companies on Canadian exchanges involved in prefabricated and modular construction, though the sector remains fragmented and largely dominated by private or regional firms.
Surrey’s recent council report confirms the city is actively exploring CSA-certified prefabricated accessory dwelling units (ADUs) as part of its Backyard Housing Initiative. The aim is to streamline approvals, reduce permitting complexity, and accelerate housing delivery—particularly for rental and non-market units.
This presents strong growth potential. Manufacturers with CSA certification and existing production capacity are well-positioned to scale quickly. Adding a second shift doesn’t require new infrastructure—just incremental variable costs. The buildings, equipment, and workflows are already in place. With rising demand and regulatory tailwinds, this kind of operational leverage could translate into meaningful expansion without heavy capital investment.
This industry may have good potential to shift from a niche market to mainstream. ATCO has already entered the prefabricated housing industry in a significant way. In January 2023, ATCO Structures acquired Triple M Housing, the largest manufacturer of modular residential homes in Western Canada.
https://youtu.be/ZDUOqTYB0BQ?si=9D5k9NP8x08wq2iB
Its called an air scrubber…And yeah they work. Every time I enter a unit there is always a scrubber running. Before I can even have my guys in I require the professional air quality certificate for worksafe.
I’ve just spent the past week cleaning and prepping a rental unit for new tenants, and one question that came up was about mold. It’s said that around 70% of homes have at least traces of it. That got me thinking: should I have the place professionally fogged?
The process costs about $1,200 and claims to eliminate mold spores—even the ones hidden behind walls or in ductwork. I’m curious if anyone here has actually done this. Was it effective? Did you notice a difference in air quality or tenant satisfaction?
I would agree that adu’s can help a lending hand in housing. Most of them are heading south over the border unfortunately because the U.S is way ahead of Canada . We have some great lil manufacturers here in Canada that should be seriously looking of manufacturing down there instead.
If you’re mainly looking for upbeat market news, there are plenty of real estate agent blogs that cater to that. But as I understand it, this space is meant for open discussion about real estate—ideally grounded in data and experience, not personal spending habits or comparisons to European cities.
I genuinely appreciate when people ask thoughtful questions. It’s how we all learn and refine our understanding. I do think more people would engage if they felt the conversation welcomed constructive dialogue rather than shutting it down.
Here is good news for those that want to stay in their homes and have some income when they retire. Surry is exploring prefabitcated “garden suites” Surrey is taking the lead in this, but I doubt other municipalies will be far behind.
https://www.peacearchnews.com/local-news/surrey-exploring-prefabricated-garden-suites-8284259
I think ADUs are likely the better way to solve our housing problems rather than a home owner demolishing their home to build a multi-plex.
Trapped is his cope for being priced out of the market due to both his horrible assessment of the market and underwhelming career/earning prospects.
Well with Victoria mortgage delinquencies now near zero (1 out of 1,000), hopefully you will realize what that means. And drop your negative narrative about Victoria homeowners being trapped ….
…. [groot] “ in a gilded cage. Homeowners are finding themselves financialy stuck—not because they love their homes, but because their mortgage has become too burdensome to sell or rent out. They’re locked in by high monthly payments and falling short on options.” https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/06/24/new-developments-with-suites-and-capital-gains-tax/#comment-129633
====
Anyway, here’s to the 999/1000 Victoria homeowners that are affording their mortgages and leading the country in that. Groot, I hope you join me in raising a glass to that, and the other benefits of living in this great city.
Nothing wrong with that man!
Your funny. At any rate, I really, really, really love living in Langford dude. I honestly wouldn’t have it any other way man.
Risking your life on the malahat just to get home. Lol no thanks.
I hopped on the brentwood ferry and took the hat down. It was a breeze and its not on my dime (I actually have a BC ferries card). I was working out in lands end anyway.
Another week, another accident on the TCH, another reason not to live on the Westshore lol.
Joe, it’s a good playbook and it works well
Not a big surprise Patrick as Victoria has been bucking the trend in other cities to higher unemployment for quite awhile.
People with jobs – pay their bills.
https://mnpdebt.ca/en/resources/mnp-debt-blog/british-columbians-record-high-concern-over-debt-repayment
Good news for the Victoria housing market.
CMHC just released mortgage delinquency data for q2-2025. Canada overall remains with exceptionally low delinquency (0.22%), which improved a little.
Of the 30 cities measured, the city with the lowest delinquency rate is… Victoria. Only 0.10%, or 1 out of 1,000 mortgages is delinquent. That says something for affordability. We are told housing is unaffordable, but at least the Victorians that have bought are affording them, paying their mortgages on time.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/-/media/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data-tables/mortgage-debt/mortgage-delinquency-rate-canada-provinces-cmas/mortgage-delinquency-rate-ca-prov-cmas-2012-q3-2025-q2-en.xlsx
Who knows what will happen? There is systemic weakness all around, and many of the cracks are beginning to turn into deep fissures. At the same time, the Liberals are readying their fiscal bazooka for November. Governments worldwide are following a similar playbook. Expect a continued debasement of currencies and a corresponding rise in gold and other asset prices. Will real estate prices continue to inflate with them? Only time will tell.
Sure, but eventually we are all dead. In the meantime, if one has the means, just establish a balanced approach you can live with through the inevitable retrenchment to come, but without going into the bunker & leaving the field altogether.
A lot of people thought that way in the late 1930,s and look at what happened. This shit will eventually land on your doorstep.
“”September was another stable month for local real estate,” said 2025 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Dirk VanderWal. “Stability is a good thing; we don’t want to see huge fluctuations in price or number of sales in our market. A market like we currently are in, that experiences typical seasonality, and includes a healthy amount of inventory and a good selection of interested buyers, is one where we won’t have that overheated pressure on pricing and on transactions that we saw in previous years. Our current market is fairly balanced, with less pressure on both the buyers’ and the sellers’ sides. This means each party in the transaction has time to do their due diligence and make decisions.””
-Victoria Real Estate Board
““As prices continue to weaken, the market is showing hopeful signs of renewed confidence,” said Tore
Jacobsen, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “While recent economic uncertainty seems to have
weighed more heavily here in the Fraser Valley, some buyers are beginning to re-engage in the market, a
positive signal heading into the fall.””
-Fraser Valley Real Esate Board
““The past few years have been quite challenging for the market, beginning with 2022’s rapid increase in interest rates, major political and policy shifts in subsequent years, and recent trade tensions with the USA weighing on the market,” Lis said.
“With the acute impacts of these events now fading, we expect market activity to continue stabilizing to end the year, barring any unforeseeable major disruptions.” ”
-Vancouver Real Estate Board.
““Now that school is back in session, many families are shifting back into their routines, and that’s reflected in our housing market as well,” says VIREB Chair Olivier Naud. “Prices across our region remain relatively flat, underscoring the market’s resilience. While economic headwinds persist, people are still moving on with their lives and making housing decisions that fit their needs.””
Up Island Real Estate Board
“LMAO”
-Bozo the troll
Frank , who cares what’s happening around the world real or imagined. Are u yourself or Max taking it on the chin or it’s just everyone else . Sorry man but folks are just suffering with anxiety from reading too much gibberish in the media.
Every day thousands of people are getting slaughtered around the world. Reality is not hysteria.
Oh my, not sure where hysterics comes from, guessing social media. There is nothing out of the usual out there . If anything we an entering a period of lower rates and quantitative easing .
I’m amazed at the levels the stock markets have reached. It seems that AI is making some smart investors millionaires (and a few billionaires) for something that didn’t exist a few years ago. Gold is out of control, probably due to global instability caused by maniacal leaders of powerful countries. That’s the biggest risk I see in the near future, a wide scale war. Ironically, that could increase Canada’s real estate prices even more.
I’m telling you guys. There is an economic shit storm coming… And I’ve been on this rock for almost 53 years. I have lived nowhere else other than right here on south Vancouver island.
I have been through turbulence and understand the ups and downs. Avoid debt at all costs.
Lol he’s not seeing anything, the only thing he sees is a crash thats failed to materialize for the past 16 years. Imagine if he had bought a house 16 years ago and then got into a rental property or two 10/11 years ago. That would be similar to winning the lottery, life changing. And all that was pretty accessible to anyone that’s middle class or above. Man that must suck just thinking about it eh?
Better to ask MJ. I’m not interested in them.
Geoot, it does seem that builders are starting to snap up bottom feeder houses again, I’m guessing for 4 plexs as they are starting to show up. Is this what you’re seeing .
There’s always been a shortage of quality inventory—but lately, it’s not just about supply. Many homeowners have poured staggering sums into renovations, often exceeding what they could reasonably expect to recoup. These aren’t minor upgrades; they’re full-scale overhauls that rival the cost of new construction. In some cases, building new would have made far more financial sense.
The result? These owners are unlikely to list. They’re emotionally and financially anchored to properties that no longer align with market realities. Their renovation budgets went sideways, and now they’re sitting on homes that are overcapitalized and under-liquid.
Renovations, almost without exception, go over budget. Scope creep, material costs, and design indulgences add up fast. And while the finishes may be impressive, the underlying math rarely works. That’s why the inventory that does hit the market often feels mismatched—either dated or priced beyond what buyers are willing to pay.
Homes with overcapitalized renovations don’t hit the market unless forced by life events. They’re priced above what buyers will pay, leading to stale listings or quiet withdrawals.
Buyers want turnkey homes with modern layouts and efficient systems. What’s available is often either dated or “overdone” in ways that don’t align with current tastes or budgets.
Word on the street , market is heating up . Going into December a shortage of quality inventory, hmm very possible
I find this interesting. It’s based on the states.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/investors-purchase-nearly-a-third-of-homes-in-q1-2025-despite-high-rates?utm_campaign=10.02.2025%20REINewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Iterable&utm_channel=28425&utm_content=Marketing
Yeah. Maybe the sales history is even more relevant if it’s within say the last 5 years, as it gives you some insight into where the seller’s pressure points are. Not that I’d let the seller’s pressure points dictate an offer – the market is the market – but the more info the better I guess.
Lmao
Anyone watching the market, buyers or agents, should be aware of the recent listing history of a property. If they don’t, they’re stupid.
I’m not allowed dated anything. My Wife knows I’m a certified tradesman with deep connections to all the sub-trades and only pay wholesale pricing on everything. She’s pulled her weight with the beautifully manicured grounds.
Well, If I were to sell for example. I would be an enigma to the potential buyer as there would be no sales history since way back to 1998 when I bought the property.
BC Assessment operates under a mass appraisal model, which means they estimate values based on statistical models and comparable sales—not individual inspections. Unless there’s a specific appeal or anomaly, they rarely, if ever, physically inspect a unit. So when MJ compares a recent agent valuation (based on a walkthrough, condition, upgrades, view, etc.) to BC Assessment, it’s apples to oranges.
But for taxation purposes, the system isn’t designed to be precise at the unit level. It’s meant to be fair across the board—so that similar properties are assessed similarly, and the overall tax burden is distributed equitably. On that front, it generally holds up. The problem arises when people treat the assessed value as a proxy for market value, which it isn’t—especially in a volatile or segmented market like Victoria’s condo scene.
BC Assessment values are built for fairness in taxation, not precision in valuation. They reflect broad market trends using mass appraisal techniques—not individual property inspections. When homeowners, buyers, or lenders use these figures to gauge market value, they’re applying them to a purpose they were never designed to serve.
The Canadian government has been reviewing the broader financial sector framework, and recent consultations have touched on concerns about the use of Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) and assessment-based valuations in lending decisions.
Federal consultations have explored how AVMs and mass appraisal tools may contribute to valuation distortions, especially in consumer credit transactions secured by residential property.
In parallel, the AVM Quality Control Standards Rule—set to take effect October 1, 2025—will require financial institutions to implement stricter governance around AVM use. This includes testing for algorithmic bias, documenting fair lending risks, and ensuring AVMs don’t produce disparate impacts across protected classes.
Automated Valuation Models are fast and cheap—but they’re also blind. When lenders rely on AVMs without human oversight, they’re betting on algorithms that may not see the cracked foundation, the dated kitchen, or the obstructed view. It’s efficient, but it’s risky—and in volatile markets, that risk compounds.
Peter, almost any agent will set you up on a search or multiple searches whether you are “in the market” or not. I saw that price drop information listed a while ago on a property on realtor and thought it was a good feature, but I might not have been looking in greater Victoria at the time. You should, if working with an agent, ask to see the mls history which will tell you how often it was listed and for what price, and when price drops happened or increases which are much rarer now.
It wouldn’t be listed as freehold, it would be listed as leasehold then if it was leased land. Freehold means you own the land. There are only a couple of institutions that will mortgage on a leasehold from what I discovered when I looked at a home on reserve land off the Pat Bay once upon a time. They usually are at really discounted prices compared to regular ones, such as the James Bay condos that are leasehold, or the Glentana townhouses that are leasehold. Value can plummet pretty quick when you’re into the final 25 years of the lease. Can appear a good deal compared to rent though for some people.
Yeah, I get why they’d feel that way. As a buyer, I’d think it’s useful information and/or ammunition…
I guess I’m just used to having seen this & other information on US websites for years now so that I’m thinking it should be par for the course.
Buyers and sellers are often ingenious in the way they estimate property value. Faced with limited data, they lean heavily on third-party sources like BC Assessments and past sales history. These tools can offer a ballpark figure, especially when comparing a home to highly similar properties. But the reality is: such comparisons are rarely perfect.
In most cases, there aren’t three recent sales of near-identical homes to anchor a reliable estimate. Instead, people extrapolate from partial matches—homes that are similar in age, size, or location, but differ in key ways.
Take the Maquinna properties, for example. Both homes were built by the same builder around the same time, which might suggest they should carry similar value. But they sold six months apart, had physical and locational differences, and ultimately traded at different price points. These nuances matter—and they’re often overlooked when relying solely on assessment data or historical sales.
A homeowner’s sense of value is inherently subjective. Features that hold personal appeal—like an inground pool, a tennis court, or a custom wine cellar—are often assumed to carry equal weight with prospective buyers. But that’s rarely the case.
Valuation bias creeps in when owners project their preferences onto the market. A pool may represent years of enjoyment to the seller, but to a buyer with young children or no interest in swimming, it could be a liability. Similarly, a tennis court might be seen as a premium amenity by one party and an unused maintenance burden by another.
This disconnect underscores the importance of market-based valuation. Features only add value when they align with buyer demand—and that demand varies by location, demographic, and timing.
Month Sep Sep
Year 2025 2024
Net Unconditional Sales 554 571
New Listings 1,554 1,441
Active Listings 3,694 3,362
1,554 new listings is the most on record in the last 36 years, but difficult to interpret that number these days due to all the re-lists.
I have noticed a bit of a pick up on the ground in terms of showings and offers this week.
Funny how many sellers have called me in a panic in the last few years asking me to remove the sales history of their listing on realtor.ca (I can’t do it) but perspective is an interesting thing. A lot of sellers feel they are disadvantaged if we are asking $1 million for their property and they paid $450,000 in 2015 and that is displayed on realtor.ca.
Ok well, I mean, I guess that’s “good”, though it also over the years seems like they have to be dragged kicking & screaming to include more information…
My real problem when I (rarely now) try to use realtor.ca on our mobile devices is that the whole website is jiggy. Say you have 5 pages of results. You scroll along and on page 3 you find one result you click on for details, then when you try to go back to the general list of results, half the time it sort of “flashes” you back to page 1. Doesn’t matter how many different ways I try to go back, or re-loading the whole app or whatever. It’s just unstable.
So then you try another site like redfin or something like that, and they don’t have that issue but they have other problems. I think one of them (might even be redfin, not sure right now) is particularly bad about telling you an entire square footage for condos but without breaking it down into actual living space vs. balcony/patio.
I have yet to find a website that’s user-friendly and provides all the information you would rationally expect.
I know I would get access to better sites working with a realtor, but I’m not working with a realtor, since we’re not actually looking for anything & I just look at these websites to keep tabs on the market & because I find it interesting
New feature rolling out on realtor.ca
Starting TODAY (October 1), REALTOR.ca will provide greater visibility for price changes. This will make it easier for buyers to notice adjustments and help your listings stand out in a competitive market.
When you update the price of a listing in Matrix, REALTOR.ca will display:
A new Price Change label
Previous price
Price difference
Is this that YOLO thing?
Yes. I suppose it works for some people.
Okay, let me get this straight. An individual approaches the bank for a 25 year mortgage to purchase a unit from the strata corporation and the strata corporation is leasing the land?
Possibly Groot means a condo where the strata owns the land, as opposed to leasing it.
I would expect it takes 2.19 condos to buy a typical SFH within the same proximity anywhere at any given time in history.
As for single family in the core districts. So far 128 sales at a median price of $1,237,500. Average days to sell at 39. About 4.5 MOI. Again these are preliminary and subject to change. No signficant changes from last month.
With the median price of all condos in the Victoria core sitting at $564,000. It now takes 2.19 condos to buy a typical SFH in the core. Which is within the historical range.
All of the above is for the general market, individual properties will vary.
WTF?
You mean lot line condo, which is complete horse shit… Right up there with snake oil.
What’s next…Rent to own?
Downtown Freehold Condo Market – September Snapshot
September’s shaping up to be a decent month for freehold downtown condo sales, with 29 units changing hands at a median price of $486,000. These figures are preliminary and subject to board revisions in early October. The average time on market sits at 51 days, and inventory levels hover around six months—suggesting a balanced, if cautious, environment.
That median is down from $505,000 in August, reinforcing the sense that the pandemic-era price surge has largely unwound. The typical unit sold was built in 2008 and measured around 740 square feet.
Rents and Gross Rent Multipliers (GRMs) are slipping alongside prices. With average asking rents around $25,000 annually, the GRM now sits at 19.5.
Lower prices may be coaxing some buyers back into the downtown market, but the mood is far from the irrational exuberance of the pandemic years. Most purchases appear to be for owner-occupation, while investors remain in wait-and-see mode.
Personally, I’m still not enthusiastic about buying a downtown rental. If the GRM ever dropped to 15, I’d reconsider—but that’s historically rare. Then again, these markets have a habit of overcorrecting before they bounce.
The 610 sq.ft. strata garden suite garden suite in Glandford has sold for $665,000.
Did they drink the milk out of the carton from their fridge before they peed in their toilet and didn’t flush? Like that other dude that got busted for doing on the webcam? I think he actually had to surrender his licence.
When it comes to business I live my life just assuming I am always on camera… Like the Truman show!
I’ve been following this blog for quite some time, but I’ve never commented before. So, hello to everyone!
What are your thoughts on the townhomes at Royal Bay in Colwood and Westhills in Langford? I’m looking for open opinions on both, as I’m considering a purchase in either location.
Amusing reddit thread -> https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstateCanada/comments/1nsvrmp/potential_buyer_experiences/
So many things in this thread happen in my business on a daily basis. Just had an agent a couple of days ago stay beyond their 1 hr booked time slot as the buyers during the showing decided to call their friends to come take a look for a “second opinion.”
Beware, that’s not Marco but likely an AI hallucinating about 2026 inventory!
Good stuff , marko
Month Sep Sep
Year 2025 2024
Net Unconditional Sales 515 571
New Listings 1,487 1,441
Active Listings 3,700 3,362
Mixed bag in the Monday update. I don’t think will clear 56 sales in the next two days to beat out last year, but close enough. Inventory 10% higher than last year.
Last 10 years inventory (end of Sept)
2026 – 3,700
2025 – 3,361
2024 – 2,699
2023 – 2,300
2022 – 1,124
2021 – 2,389
2020 – 2,823
2019 – 2,636
2018 – 1,976
2017 – 2,061
2016 – 3,478
Will be interesting to see what October brings. 50% of the years October sales are better than September and 50% of the time they are worse. Last year October was exceptionally better than September with 654 in October versus 571 in September.
Or they move out to Metchosin, the Highlands, central Saanich, or where ever. There are people with a shit load of money scattered all throughout the CRD man.
Lmao, when members of those same ethnic groups get a little money, usually the first thing they will do is move out of that ethnically dominanted place and into a place that’s dominated by well off caucasians.
I can tell you this. Back in the late 70’s (another inflationary period). I would stroll Victoria’s inner harbour hand in hand with my Grandmother hitting the Pacific Undersea Gardens and the Royal BC Museum and it was extremely seldom and super rare to run across a hobo (That’s what we called them back then).
Flash forward into this inflationary period we are experiencing right now… I’m thinking its different this time.
You know, you write all this stuff like this, or the retired people “oozing” with privilege, or whatever, meanwhile you seem pretty judgmental yourself.
Groot, sounds all too woke for me
The phrase “proper value” often carries more than just economic meaning—it can signal a moral endorsement of market outcomes. But proper by what standard? And decided by whom? Defining desirability by price is fraught with error, especially when preferences vary widely. What’s desirable to one buyer may be irrelevant to another. Broadmead, for example, might appeal to someone seeking suburban convenience, but not to someone prioritizing acreage or waterfront. Worse still, I’ve seen “proper value” used as a coded critique of neighborhoods with different ethnic compositions—where market price becomes a proxy for social judgment.
The phrase “proper value” may not be overtly racist, but it often carries the weight of privilege, especially in how it’s used to validate certain neighborhoods over others.
…Are neighborhoods one desires to live in or neighborhoods where one does not desire to live in. The price is relative.
I don’t live there, parents do though. Regardless at the end of the day the market does a very good job of assigning proper value to diserable and undesirable neighborhoods. You can take that how ever you want.
Golf, gym (x2) and fitness classes alone will be about $800 a month. Some of those are covered via benefits at work but won’t be the case when retired. Then you tack on the regular spends for house stuff, grooming, hygiene etc. it’s not hard to hit 2k between 2 people when u add in clothes.
My bad. Not sure how I missed the rest of the sentence.
The exact same thing could be said for Broadmead.
“Elaborate. You have to declare your capital gains exemption now. That hayride is over.”
This tweaked my memory. Some time ago (months? a year?) there was some discussion on HHV re filing an election under 45(2) to defer the capital gain when there is a change in use/deemed disposition e.g. renting out a basement/secondary suite.
Curious if upon sale/ disposition anyone has run into issues where CRA has balked at retaining part of or the entire property as a principal residence e.g. did CRA get picky and assess that a partial change in use of the property was substantial and of a more permanent nature.
Sorry, Langford isn’t for everyone.
Trust me, I’ve looked into that. I must say its a very clever plan. But it comes with risk and it takes a bunch of effort to understand it and successfully pull it off.
A man of your calibre should most defiantly have a heli-pad on premise to get you wherever the fuck you need to get to at any given time.
I’m not sure I understand the “traditional mortgage” distinction you are drawing. Just about every bank will put you in re-advanceable once you are past 20% equity. You don’t need to make use of the feature and, if you don’t, your mortgage is a “traditional” mortgage in every way. Depending on your income level, the return required to make it a smart play is not particularly high.
Yep, would agree, have to jump on that horse when you’re younger. I would say 99 percent of Canadians can’t pull that off , it’s just not in them. The anxiety would kill ‘em
“You can use the Smith Maneuver.”
But Marco said traditional mortgage, which is not what you’d use in that situation.
In any case I don’t think borrowing to invest in the stock market is a good idea for anyone 60+. Especially against your residence.
I will call you Mr. Fancy Pants from now on.
…..
You can use the Smith Maneuver.
I will call you Mr. Fancy Pants from now on.
I need to be within 20min to both downtown and airport and have a nice view, which is what I currently have.
It has Costco and its the gateway to the north island. Unless you want to catch the Brentwood ferry.
Pass
Max, I’m just throwing it out there that some folks just don’t want to be debt free and are building wealth
Marko, good to c a nice fat day of sales , between the budget, another rate cut and a bit of a tip up in the economy I think we are on the right track .
These are the same people who had the opportunity to buy a SFH for 5 figures back in the day. Living large (and dying small), I guess.
The chances are very high that some may consider you to look like a clown out there on the course with your plaid pants and collared t-shirt.
And all the people out there bitching and moaning, whining and complaining about property taxes need to move to a growing community. A community where a 2600 sq/ft house on a 1/4 acre with a garden suite out back will set you back sub 4k per annum. The community with sub 4k property taxes per annum even has sidewalks and streetlights.
Lmao that’s not what was posted clowns.
Elaborate. You have to declare your capital gains exemption now. That hayride is over.
Max, or it’s only business hmm
If you are holding a mortgage post 60 years of age you are in some serious dire straits man. You are paying interest on that money and being your PR you can’t write any of that shit off.
46 pending sales yesterday which is high for this time of year. Not sure if a random blip or a pick up in sales pace as a result of the rate cut.
I come across of lots of properties purchased in the last 10 years with sellers >65 and they have traditional mortgages on the properties.
I see a red door and I want it painted black.
The banks especially aren’t always much on the ball it seems.
I had an assistant once who retired in her late 60s. Due to some unfortunate circumstances, she had little in the way of savings. About 10 years later when she would have been late 70s I checked in with her & she had just bought a condo in Calgary. She had enough for a good downpayment. I remember her laughing about the mortgage conversation and how the bank offered her a normal amortization and some extended amortization that was available at that time (which she took). She figured the payments that way were way less than rent. How she ever got a mortgage to begin with is beyond me, but I remember she got a good laugh out of the long amortization period.
They’re not high, period. Not on the chart, but they were no higher than today in the good old days of the late 50’s and early 60’s.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/selected_historical_v122497.pdf
Spoke to a guy who retired from Boeing with 29 other workers. In 6 months 5 were dead, almost 20%. They were not old, probably early 60’s, maybe late 50’s.
That’s how most cult members dress.
I try to keep my wardrobe simple. I have 7 pairs of black track pants, 7 black t-shirts, 7 black long sleeved shirts, 7 pairs of Champion black socks with 7 pairs of black Eddie Bauer boxers, 7 black hoodies, a black toque and a pair of black Vans.
I think I’m into it for around $350. But I’m super comfy dude!
I honestly wouldn’t have it any other way.
I have a loans officer in family. They don’t like granting a mortgage to anyone even approaching the age of 60. You are supposed to be done by then.
Nice selective quote there. Pretty sure it reads: “around 2k for clothes, other house hold purchases and other hobbies and bills (golf, gym, classes, etc.)”
Yes, Patrick, the government will study the issue for a year or more before making a decision. But by then, the market will have moved on—and not in a good way.
Rents are already in decline. Vacancy is rising. Population growth is reversing. Investors aren’t likely to buy into a market with deteriorating fundamentals and the prospect of lower returns. This isn’t just a cyclical dip—it’s a structural shift.
It’s reminiscent of the 1980s, though not identical. Back then, interest rates hit 19% and crushed affordability. Today, rates are high—but not extreme. Unlike the ’80s, we don’t have the same room to cut rates or unleash credit expansion. The affordability lever is broken because it’s already been pulled too hard.
If you want affordabily and investors to come back then do what every retail owner does. Cut prices.
Damn.
If that happens, there will be a call to end speculation/vacancy tax, airbnb bans, and foreign ownership bans. All of those were put in part because of low rental vacancy rates.
Falling rents/sale prices would be a wake-up call to government to reverse these.
Half duplex with a suite just sold in Vic West for 955K-anyone think that lines up with recent comps or did the cooler market knock it down? Where are we at?
Stats Canada just confirmed that emigration from Canada hit an all-time high last year—and 2025 is on track to break that record. One province stands out: British Columbia.
BC makes up just 13.7% of Canada’s population, yet it accounted for 22% of all emigration in the first half of this year. That’s a staggering per capita loss.
The article doesn’t specify who’s leaving, but I’d wager it’s recent immigrants. Many arrived with high hopes, sold on a polished brochure version of Canada. What they found instead was a housing crisis, strained infrastructure, and limited access to services. The disconnect between promise and reality is pushing people to reconsider—and leave.
On its own this will not cause a BC recession. BC’s economy is diverse, and recessions typically stem from broader macro shocks—interest rates, global trade, commodity prices. But high emigration could amplify existing vulnerabilities, especially if paired with:
• Continued housing market correction
• Weak business investment
• Fiscal tightening at the provincial level
My thoughts are that Victoria will hit a 5% vacancy rate in 2026 with rents declining 8-10%
I wonder how many foreign students rented apartments and listed them on AirBnB.
Foreign students are generally included in Canada’s ban on foreign ownership of residential property, but they may qualify for an exemption if they meet specific criteria.
Importantly, the ban does not prevent foreign students from renting property. They can still lease apartments, including in downtown Victoria, without restriction.
REaddict, when you sold your last home – whenever that was. It’s likely the ban was not in effect.
Before the ban, many student purchases were nominee-style, where the student held title but the funds came from overseas parents. This raised concerns about money laundering and non-transparent ownership, prompting tighter scrutiny under FINTRAC and the Land Owner Transparency Registry.
But the province did see widespread money laundering, often involving layered transactions, nominee ownership, and opaque funding sources, which share some structural similarities.
But it wasn’t solely due to foreign students. Although having your child registered as a student, did provide a way to bring in a lot of capital to BC. Even if they rarely attended the school. Most of this would not be considered money laundering as how it is defined.
However, I would say that a lot of Vancouver was built with dark money to the point that Vancouver was called China’s whore as billions in illict funds had flowed through BC’s real estate, casinos, and luxury goods sectors.
Ya just depends how you want to live. Quick back of the envelope expense breakdown: 2.5k for property tax, bills, upkeep and maintenance. 2k for groceries and dinning (wife swears by organic), 3k for travels, 2k to 2.5k for car related expenses including amortization, around 2k for clothes, other house hold purchases and other hobbies and bills (golf, gym, classes, etc.). Could probably cut down travel and some other things and save couple grand a month if need be but don’t see saving more than 2k without start taking some significant lifestyle cuts. Oh and have to budget for kids needing help in the future.
>>> These are not at all isolated examples.
They are isolated examples. [of foreign buyers in victoria] .
As Leo has extensively documented here on HHV, foreign buyer purchases are less than 1% since the 2018 introduction of foreign buyer tax, and even less than that now. About 5 sales per month. Even the examples you provided had the foreigners selling after a few years, so that’s a net zero affect on the market.
I think the correct term is that foreign buying impact in Victoria is currently a “nothing burger”
========—-
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2022/01/10/where-buyers-came-from-in-2021/
Leo: “ provincial foreign buyers data, which has remained at an average of only 5 sales a month since the introduction of the foreign buyers tax in 2018.”
Half of that I think will do for most in retirement 🙂
We need roughly today’s equivalent of 12k to 15k a month to maintain lifestyle without a mortgage. Should be easily doable with some rental properties, pension (x2), TFSA (x2), RRSP(x2), cpp(x2).
I-am-Groot your assertion that foreign students/workers don’t have an impact on the real estate market except for rentals is uninformed. When I sold my last home it was bought by a foreign student, and tenanted (the other bedrooms) by other foreign students. It was within reasonable busing distance to UVic and had four bedrooms. The house next to me, when it was sold the time before last , was bought by a foreign student’s family for the daughter to live in while she went to UVic, and they made it work by renting out the two-bedroom suite downstairs to students (UVic and Camosun), and by having roommates for two bedrooms upstairs, contributing to the mortgage payment. 4 years later, they sold and made out pretty well, as the home was sold for 1.34 million, while it had been bought for 1.25 million. Minus realtor fees and commissions, that probably paid for a couple of years of schooling. These are not at all isolated examples. It happens in townhouses and condos as well. The wealth of foreign buyers often makes them the highest bidder, shutting out local buyers and driving up prices.
Realistically what percentage of the population is going to have a paid off house with a suite plus maxed out TSFA close to retirement? I am guessing going forward a lot of people will still have a mortgage at retirement. Given how things are going with the majority of new construction being purpose built rentals we will have a lot of lifetime renters so SFH with a suite plus maxed out TSFA will be a lot further ahead than a lifetime renter, on average. Obviously max out RRSPs too if you can and invest in non-registered accounts and if the budget allows for it buy a rental property at some point in time when it cash flows.
The nice thing about buying a SFH with a suite is rents appreciate over time, but your mortgage is eaten away by inflation over time. The first tenant my parents had 30 years ago was $550 per month and now they are renting the same suite for just shy of $2,000 per month. I have both their TSFA maxed out with VDY and there is another $1,000 plus per month in dividends plus appreciation has been solid so they are fine even not factoring in their RRSPs.
The days of people having a home paid off by retirement may also be over. If you are not buying until later in life, the possibility of paying off that mortgage by age 65, particularly in Victoria, with higher home prices, is slimmer than it once was. This will be the last generation, I feel, that accomplishes that and has the nest egg to fall back on. Myself, I didn’t buy until 50 and originally wouldn’t have paid off that mortgage until 80! So, thoughts of moving somewhere cheaper come to the fore. It is very difficult to downsize in Victoria when townhomes and condos with strata fees can make it impossible, if you still have a mortgage in retirement. Townhouses can cost more than a comparable-sized house, and have fees on top of the mortgage. People really need to be creative. I’ve had two jobs for more than 11.5 years on top of a sporadic third income stream. Still wouldn’t have gotten me mortgage-free by retirement, but closer.
There comes a point when you start questioning the value of living in a 2,500-square-foot home in the city—especially when the bulk of your savings is being drained just to maintain it.
The commenters on this blog “oozing” with retirement savings is telling. It highlights a selection bias: those who comment are often the ones with the luxury of time and financial security. Meanwhile, the silent majority approaching retirement may be recalibrating expectations—downsizing, relocating, or shifting to more modest lifestyles. The drop in income is real, and unless one has indexed pensions or robust passive income, lifestyle adjustments are inevitable.
The idea that an urban home is a symbol of success starts to unravel when the carrying costs—property taxes, maintenance, insurance, utilities—begin to cannibalize retirement savings. Especially in a city like Victoria, where older homes often come with deferred maintenance and rising municipal costs.
The reality is that many homeowners are asset-rich but cash-flow poor. And as retirement nears, the appeal of downsizing—or relocating entirely—starts to make a lot more sense than clinging to a high-cost property that no longer fits the life they are living.
What once felt like a fortress of financial achievement—a 2500 sq ft home—can start to feel like a liability. Not just financially, but in terms of upkeep, isolation, and misalignment with changing priorities.
The question becomes: is the home serving you, or are you serving it?
Retired homeowners in Victoria have, in many cases, effectively won the lottery—thanks to decades of home price inflation. By cashing out, many are able to walk away with seven-figure windfalls, giving them the financial runway to enjoy a comfortable lifestyle for the next 20 years or more. It’s a rare convergence of timing, location, and policy that’s turned ordinary homes into extraordinary assets.
I don’t think you’re likely to be just fine unless you’re prepared to burn up the equity in your house by selling or taking out a reverse mortgage.
Because you’ll likely have to if if you just have max TFSA+CPP+OAS. RRSP limits are designed to give you a decent retirement income, compare them to TFSA limits. And I’m not saying don’t take out a TFSA, just that it likely won’t be enough.
From someone who’s there.
I had to drop $30 on a 15 pack of beer today at the cold beer and wine store. This is bullshit. Any chance the provincial government can just force these people back to work?
I think the majority of people would be just fine following this advice, as early in their lives as they can, and ignoring 90% of the investment articles they read.
Vicre, yep work on the old ones . I have both done a reboot on a primary ecu that have gone into limp mode , and I have had to take in a new merc that had a bad ecu that needed to redownloaded proprietary software from factory . If someone is telling u that they have to reset your ecu back to factory specs after a simple tune up they are full of kaka. It just doesn’t work that way . A obd scan will just tell u what codes the ecu is throwing but won’t fix or entirely identify the problem. U can clear codes from a ecu to remove the check engine but it throw a code fairly quickly
>>> Was that a 4 plex but each of them have suites within them?
3820 Epsom ,$4.8m,
details->
https://www.redfin.ca/bc/saanich/3820-Epsom-Dr-V8P-3S7/home/155785990
Was that a 4 plex but each of them have suites within them?
Lol looks like you haven’t dealt with these newer cars yet. They are designed for you not to work on them yourself.
If anything I think passing up on the principal residence capital gains exemption is very foolish long term. I think a very simple path to financial success is buy a SFH with a suite (if you can afford it) and max out your TSFA every year and limit management fees (buy VDY or VFV or whatever and just add max TSFA contribution room every year).
SFHs long term I can’t see anything but up. Only 3.3% of housing units we are building in Victoria are SFH while the majority of buyers want SFH. We haven’t had this much SFH inventory below $1 million in the core in 5 years and if we get two more rate cuts variable mortgage will be in the low 3% by next year and markets can change very quickly (2016 and 2021) where all of a sudden we are back to bidding wars. Could things be worse (better buying opportunity) in 12 months? Fore sure; however, very difficult to time the bottom.
Even if you can only afford a condo prices are down quite a bit, interest rates are dropping and very few condos will be built in the next 10 years. Literally every construction site downtown is purpose built rentals….could be 10 years before we see a new condo building downtown. Maybe everyone will be happy to rent for large corporations? but maybe the lack of strata supply will catch up with the market in 10 years as well.
New multiplex on Epsom just sold for nearly $4.8 million today. If we see a few more sales like that expect upwards price pressure on larger missing middle lots long term.
Vicre, u can do basic service ie tune ups and no reset on an ecu is required . Unless u have a check engine light on and have done a repair u don’t want to do a reset of an ecu. Removing the neg off a battery is the quick and easy to remove a check engine light , but will come back on if the repair hasn’t been made .
Yet another article (this time in NP) today touting the advantages of renting being potentially ‘better’ than buying. Frankly, the more of this I see, the more I’m convinced it’s getting to be an ok time to buy. These sorts of articles are almost a counter-indicator as far as I’m concerned. Not based on any research but more so just on what I’ve seen in the past. Just like I would view Garth Turner pronouncements as a counter-indicator.
I used to modify the BIOS on satellite receivers and gaming consoles such as the Xbox 360, WiiU, 3DS, Switch, and the Playstation 3 to run unsigned code and unauthorized digital duplicates on their machines. Having two boy’s, that in itself must have saved me atleast 10 grand.
They have locked that all down now with encryption techniques… But it was a free for all back in the day… Anything digital was.
New cars now all require a computer reset after service and/or battery change. Which means I will also need to buy an ODB scan tool if I want to start messing around with that myself. I’ll consider doing my own brake pads/rotors if need be as that is the biggest bang for the buck (probably 1k saved for couple hours) and straight forward but I don’t want to mess around with oil as it’s messy or anything electrical.
Euro SUV, don’t want to be too specific as I am pretty sure there are other people from my work reading this site. Just basic synthetic oil and filter, it will be couple hundred cheaper at an independent but I don’t think it’s worth the hassel, still under factory warranty for another year and half so I’ll pay up in case something actually fails and they try and stick me with a 5 figure bill . Plus I will get a loaner for the day to beat on.
Its all relative dude. Shelter has always been expensive compared to the income ratio. I’ll be 53 come November and housing the family has always taken the biggest bite out of my ass . That and taxes.
When I was 19 and as stupid as the day was long, I was paying $550 for a 800 sq/ft panabode 1 bath 1 bed cabin way out in Metchosin with my girl. I was still doing my apprenticeship at that time so I was probably only making around $20 per/hr. but those numbers worked.
What I can see happening here… Consumer confidence tanks, resulting in a devastating financial blow to the retail and the hospitality/entertainment industries. This will trickle down into anything involving the economy (outside of insurance claims ofcourse). Then we will enter into a period of flat… For like a decade.
Those that can see the storm clouds approaching, and have braced themselves accordingly, will come out unscathed… Just like they always do.
Also on that note, 15 or 20 years ago it was $1200 to get an oil change for a Mercedes Unimog (very cool off road vehicle). Of course that was both differentials, transfer case, and motor. I liked them but that would be enough to put me off.
What kind of car? Several dealers offer free oil change for life but that is just to get you in the door. The routine extras like tire rotation, cabin air filters etc. can quickly add a couple hundred dollars. While it is one of the easier things to do yourself, it is not a very fun job.
lol side topic, just got quoted $500 for oil change at the dealership, I didn’t realize the free maintenance package had ran out……
How many hybrids of cronyism and financialization (is that a word?) do you own in your stock portfolio?
Capitalism works—when markets are free.
But let’s be honest: few markets today operate under anything resembling true capitalism. Real estate is a prime example. What should be a straightforward exchange of shelter for price has morphed into a tangled web of subsidies, regulations, and speculative finance.
Now add public-built rentals to the mix. In theory, they’re meant to address affordability. In practice, they often compete with private providers while operating under different rules—subsidized land, preferential financing, and political insulation from market pressures. When public agencies build rentals without clear cost discipline or accountability, they don’t just fill gaps—they reshape the market itself
This isn’t capitalism. It’s a hybrid of cronyism and financialization, where market signals are drowned out by noise. And when too many players manipulate the game, price discovery breaks down and the system rewards scale and influence—not efficiency or merit.
Hopefully we can keep that around for awhile. Its a good system imo.
Food is a basic necessity, yet producers, transporters, wholesalers, grocers, etc.. all profit from it. It’s called capitalism.
He’s entertaining to watch from time to time, to some it may seem as though he actually knows what he’s talking about. None of his shit ever comes true. His old man died in the clink doing a 13 year stretch for tax evasion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff
I don’t agree with everything Peter Schiff says, but I think it’s important to hear contrarian perspectives. Without them, you risk getting trapped in an echo chamber.
It doesn’t bother me that he’s been sounding the same alarm for years. The economy is always evolving, and persistent critiques often reflect structural issues that don’t resolve overnight. What resonates most with me is his view on the financialization of real estate. Housing has shifted from being a basic necessity—a roof over one’s head—to a speculative asset and retirement strategy. That transformation has profound implications for affordability, policy, and how we think about shelter itself
Foreign students/workers don’t have an affect on real estate except for the rental market. That’s a spear to the heart for investors with a rising vacancy rate and softening market rents.
Those that need a mortgage helper to qualify for a loan may find it more challenging and that might lead to an increase in collapsed sales.
The big banks have been tightening up on their requirements for rental verification. What was once a one or two line comment in an appraisal has now morphed into a 3 or 4 page report with rental comparables and photos of the rentals.
Schiff is a doomer. He’s been saying the same shit for almost 2 decades now. He’s right up there with Garth Turner.
The net migration from BC to Alberta is notable, albeit at small numbers.
The pop. growth being negative from foreign students/workers isn’t meaningful to me. That trend will be finished in 2026, and I don’t think they have much impact on housing. Most are prohibited from buying anyway as they are foreigners.
Is this how you cope with missing out on multiple opportunities to buy in the past 16 years?
Agree 100%.
no house yet, unfortunately. Thankfully i don’t work in a Union environment so no major impacts on my job – thanks for checking.
Just because it can be ‘whatever we want it to be’ doesn’t mean what they choose to do isn’t impactful. If tomorrow they chose to open up the floodgates again and let in 1.2 million people over the next year that would have major impacts on housing and I’m sure you would think that’s ‘exciting’. negative population growth in BC is pretty notable I’d say.
Economist Peter Schiff recently argued that renting is better than buying—a position that holds water in today’s environment. But he made a critical error when discussing housing depreciation.
Yes, homes physically depreciate over time. But in valuation terms, depreciation is measured against current replacement cost, not original build cost. And replacement costs have surged—driven by inflation, trades shortages, and regulatory burdens. That means both land value and the depreciated value of improvements have increased significantly over the past decade. Schiff’s blanket statement about depreciation ignores this key dynamic.
This surge in replacement costs has also made renovations prohibitively expensive. In Victoria, you can still buy an older 1980s or 1990s home that hasn’t been updated—but the cost to modernize it is often absurd. By the time the renovation is complete, the total investment frequently exceeds what the property could realistically sell for. The “buy cheap, renovate for profit” model is increasingly a mirage in older neighborhoods.
And as more homeowners enter retirement and face declining income, many are discovering that homeownership can actually constrain their lifestyle. That $1.5 million home may look impressive on paper, but it’s illiquid and expensive to maintain. Selling unlocks capital. With the proceeds, retirees can invest in income-generating assets and rent a luxury apartment—often with the investment returns covering the rent. It’s a shift from being asset-rich and cash-poor to living with flexibility and financial breathing room.
In short, Schiff’s thesis has merit—but only if you understand the full picture. Depreciation isn’t what it seems, renovations aren’t cheap, and for many retirees, selling may be the most rational move they’ll ever make.
https://money.ca/mortgages/homebuying/peter-schiff-renting-is-better-than-buying-a-home
Your fellow developers are posting on social media for people to sell their lanford SFH to buy their esq 4plex/townhouse development. I am not sure how many will take them up on that….
Only 3.3% of housing starts in Victoria are SFH, I anticipate this will fall below 2% shortly while 90% of people want a SFH, kids or not.
I don’t think the current SFH buying opportunity will last forever. In 12 months time the SFH market could be a little worse, could be a little better but long term (10+ years) I don’t see how it doesn’t perform well given almost nothing is being built and buyer preference for SFH will remain.
Rush4life is back! Did you end up buying a house? Hopefully the bcgeu strike doesn’t have much of an impact on you!
Canadas population is what ever we want it to be . Nothing exciting here .
Agreed.
Rush4life – that post is useful to point out we are going in the wrong direction. Our fertility rate is also plummeting. Only 1.02 children per woman in BC. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250924/dq250924d-eng.htm. Our local politicians have taken their eyes off the most important goal. Who cares how rich we are and how nice the streets are if their are not enough kids. Women in their own SFH voluntarily choose to have more kids. Until the fertility rate gets to a healthier number, all government policies should be weighed against it. Does the ALR make SFH cheaper? No, then scrap it. Same with tree protection bylaws, sidewalk requirements, opposition to extend Urban boundaries etc.
BC population declined in Q2 – https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250924/dq250924a-eng.htm:
The population of Canada reached an estimated 41,651,653 people on July 1, 2025. This is an increase of 47,098 people (+0.1%) from April 1, 2025, and the lowest population growth rate in a second quarter since the second quarter of 2020 (+0.1%), when growth nearly halted because of border restrictions at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Except for 2020, it was the lowest growth rate in a second quarter since comparable records began (second quarter of 1946)……
British Columbia (-2,154; -0.0%) was the only province or territory to see a population decrease, and this decline was higher than in the first quarter (-299; -0.0%). Gains in that province from immigrants (+12,740), interprovincial migration (+1,678), and natural increase (+810) did not fully compensate for the decrease in the number of non-permanent residents (-14,699) and losses to net emigration (-2,683).
I plan to golf 3-4 times a week, my kids will be highschool years so depending on the sport they play that will take up some time. Will likely end up try and do some consulting etc. part time. Will also take a more active role in managing the rental properties we have. That should fill up most of my days.
Yes – I’m finding in retirement that it’s true you need to get up & do something, otherwise you can sort of rot. I just don’t think it needs to be work, or at least not the same work we did all our lives. If you finally get the time & have the means, might as well try something new for fun. Reinventing yourself will keep the wheels turning!
Not trying to go crazy and pop bottles all over the world, probably have average yearly spend of today’s equivalent of around 150k a year with no mortgage, will also have pension kicking in at 60 and decent inheritance coming in by the time we hit 70. Might do something else also as my body won’t like the extensive air travel related to my day job once I get older.
Wife will likely continue to work also as her work is relatively low stress flexible and work wfh.
20 years from now 3-4 million will be chump change. Add one highly probable stock market crash and financial meltdown and you’re toast.
You gotta keep your wheels turning man. I have already put myself into a position where all I have to do is exist to make a good annual income. But I still need to keep my head in the game, atleast a little… Just for my own sanity and well being.
To retire at 50 , I’m guessing a net worth of 3/4 mil to able to pay your bills and enjoy your retirement. Still won’t be able to go crazy
Sure, but there is a thing of not needing a job anymore. I’ll probably still keep working till I am 50 but would be doing so with less stress knowing I can walk away anytime with no impact to lifestyle.
Vicre, no such thing as done , u are more than capable of working to 85 .
I hope the same, 5 more years and then I can be done.
Vic , ya Victoria holding up well but definitely not on fire . Better days ahead with nothing glaring in the future for Canadas economy
I think endeavor is a better term. It means to try hard or achieve something. To actually accomplish something or become accomplished. That is a life worth living. The zombies we see roaming the streets are experiencing a life not worth living.
Its one hell of a journey. The trials and tribulations of life. From being a child then spawning your own children into young adults. The whole roll out of life is a trip man. The most important part is you are enjoying your trip.
You’re already cooked for this year, hope 2026 will be better!
Now for some great news. BMO warning that if rates drop below inflation house prices will take off. Not seeing how this would be a problem , who doesn’t want to make money lol
Month Sep Sep
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 379 571
New Listings 1,172 1,441
Active Listings 3,686 3,362
On pace for about 560ish sales.
>> Isn’t life a project?
That’s too deep for Monday morning 🙂
Patrick- Isn’t life a project?
Not too sure about that max , but another 1/4 point in October probably in the cards . A big beautiful budget coming soon with lots of goodies . Go Carney Go
I think tiffs gonna bring the overnight lending rate back down to .25%.
This just in, no recession this year according to tiff . Go Canada Go
I actually golfed the Royal Kaanapali Maui when I was 18 with my Father and my Grandfather. I have never golfed ever since. It just wasn’t my thing.
>>>>. I have a cottage one hour from home. It’s my idea of paradise
Sounds great. Good luck with the projects.
Well that’s just simply not the way it is according to this blog. If you want to build anything your looking at a minimum of $400 per sq/ft man!
I have a cottage one hour from home. It’s my idea of paradise. Hawaii is not out of the question for a winter getaway. I wouldn’t even consider Mexico. As for doing the work myself, at least it’s getting done. You can wait months for someone to do a major renovation and requires planning a year in advance. Painting, deck repair (major repair), hardwood floor refinishing, punching a hole between the kitchen and dining room, all within my capabilities, saving me around 60 grand. I’ll get someone to do the kitchen, some minor electrical and maybe replace one large window, I’m hoping to keep the total Reno around 30 grand, not 100 grand. Using your brain and keeping physically active is the best way to stay young. I’m living proof.
Much better. The home of Rugby Canada at the Starlight Stadium.
Someone might want a home in Langford.
-better?
Who? And no I’m not an owl.
Sure you could build a big deck and other work. But at age 70, these are your golden years.
I remember a couple of years ago you were planning to retire in Hawai’i. I recall your funny Yiddish-style one liner “I’d rather be miserable in Hawaii than happy in Winnipeg”.
Is that plan still a ‘go’
Some people might want a home that fronts onto Shelbourne too. But that doesn’t mean they are going to pay more. They just have to outbid what most people want.
Having a choice between a mid-block and a corner lot, most people don’t want a home with two road frontages due to decreased privacy and setbacks that may result in a smaller useable rear yard.
The most costly lots in a subdivision are cul-de-sac lots as their pie shape results in a larger useable rear yard. The least desirable are corner lots.
Relative to a mid-block lot that can be a 10 percent difference in just the land value. A mid block lot in that area is worth $1,300,000. That’s a $130,000 difference.
Then there is the house size difference. When a semi-custom built home costs upwards of $550 a square foot a difference of 300 square feet can make a difference of $165,000
Then of course market prices had declined 2.6 percent between the two sale dates and that’s about $75,000
And there’s your $370,000.
One house isn’t “worse’ than the other. They are just different in date of sale, location and physical aspects.
Didn’t see the extra square footage on house sigma but you would know better.
Having shown both homes over the years, not an advantage is this case. The more expensive one also has a bigger lot.
Fairly clear in the listing details that one house is 14% bigger, also happen to sell for 14% more. The 14% large size allows for a media room 52 doesn’t have.
The best 5 year fixed is going for 3.94%. I could have saved 5 bips by waiting it out!
Corner lot is interesting, I think it depends the exact corner and the buyer, if it’s a quiet side street then some may view it as an advantage compared to being in the middle.
Doesn’t show up in the listing details but maybe something is missed.
It was 200k “worse” 8 years ago. 52 is substantially smaller, worse corner lot, etc. Definitively an inferior comparable but whether it is 300k or 400k inferior who knows.
What’s the best 5 year fixed you can get these days?
I sawed 3 and a half inches off my best tape measure yesterday, at least it wasn’t a limb.
Following the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut to 2.50% on September 17th, fixed mortgage rates have edged down, but the movement has been modest. Lenders are still cautious. Inflation remains sticky at 2.6%, and unemployment is holding at 6.9%.
Nearly 1.2 million mortgages are up for renewal in 2025–2026, many originally locked in at pandemic-era lows. This rate cut softens the blow for those facing higher payments
The rate cut works out to be a savings between $14 and $20 per month for every one-hundred thousand borrowed.
https://wowa.ca/mortgage-rates
Do you even know what a Phillips is?
Parents live there, that’s why I follow that market. my house is in the vicinity.
Playing golf instead of diy home improvement is flaunting wealth now? Gtfo, go saw something.
People that have gone out there and got shit done and have actually earned their wealth tend to conceal it. They most certainly don’t flaunt it. Keep your cards close to your chest. They are very humble people.
Well, just look at the cute little trust fund kid.
Nope, just figured early on in university a high compensation career path and got the right major and co ops. I pay for my parents vacations now once a year and fly them business class as they are getting older.
Well then, what is stopping you from buying your Broadmead dream home that you’ve recommended a lot in these postings? You only live once, no?
Nope, just figured early on in university a high compensation career path and got the right major and co ops. I pay for my parents vacations now once a year and fly them business class as they are getting older.
Well, just look at the cute little trust fund kid.
Sorry, I rather be on the golf course than mess around with some diy home improvement project. My time is limited, not gonna waste it on stuff I don’t enjoy.
True that
Just because you have money doesn’t mean you have to spend it all on stupid shit. You were given a brain and a couple of arms and legs for a reason, so that you can do things for yourself. I couldn’t even imagine an existence where everyone did everything for me just because it was easier.
Maybe I just don’t like easy… I enjoy the challenge.
You don’t know that. The whole point of having money is making your life easier, better and more enjoyable. I am glad I am.able to take advantage of that for myself and family.
I’ll be painting around the same square footage on the main floor and basement for around a grand. I don’t mind making (saving) $100 an hour.
Well, that’s kind of affordable.
Trust me Patrick, I’m fit enough. I’m in better shape than most of the bags of crap walking (limping) around at any age. I’m a bit of a freak for my age. My friends just got a quote to paint the main floor of a 2000 sq. ft. bungalow. Sit down- 19 grand. What’s the business owner going to make after he pays his grunts? 10 grand at least. What a ripoff. I’m going to Dulux today to get 20 gallons of paint bogo price around $800. The main problem with hiring someone is: When are they going to show up? Not tomorrow.
I really don’t think that Frank is a pussy. He may not be the guy up there with the gun in hand throwing shit together at lightning speed. But I think he knows a thing or two about sundeck construction.
Who knows… Maybe he will be that guy up there with the gun in hand throwing all that shit together at lightning speed.
>>> I’m rebuilding a large deck on the house I just bought.
Don’t do it!
You should thank your lucky stars that at 70, you’re fit enough to rebuild a large deck. Most people aren’t. Now you’ve gotta also be smart enough to not actually do it. You don’t need the money. Injuries that a 70 year old gets are serious and can ruin your quality of life for good. Falling, breaking a hip etc. At 70, your body has many parts just waiting to snap. Don’t find out the hard way.
I make a good living off insurance claims…And business is very good.
My role is to come in at the back end and put the unit(s) back together into its (their) original condition. I basically run around and close claims all day long. Currently there are well over 200 open claims that need to be closed right now.
The adjusters don’t want to pay overtime. So they just sit there for months until I can get there. I’m restoring units where the incident occurred way back in 2024.
There are four of us independent contractors that deal with this particular outfit. I’m one of them. I have become super tight friends with all three of my competitors because I can’t handle it all and either can they. Even though we are competitors we are kind of forced to work together as a team just to close all these fucking claims!
Come Monday morning there will be another 35 claims waiting in queue.
Go Canada! Congrats to the Canada women’s Rugby Team! They just beat New Zealand to make the final on Sept. 27 in London England (against winner of England/France). Here are the highlights. https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2025/en/match/winner-qf1-v-winner-qf2-semi-final-1
They train in Langford!
The correct statistical term is “net foreign migration”, which includes all movement in and out of the country, of any status.
—-====
Correct. And in Canada “net foreign migration” is a specific term that specifically doesn’t use the term “immigrant” or “immigration”, because “immigrant” mean permanent resident status, and excludes temporary workers and students. Which is my point.
That is relevant to housing because, contrary to what many people believe, the number of immigrants accepted in Canada isn’t changing much, expected to stay about 400,000 per year, and is nowhere near net zero.
I don’t think that temporary foreign workers/students have much impact on the for-sale housing market.
Most are living on farms/ dorm rooms/ work sites or a single rented room.
Not exactly competing with HHVers to buy core Victoria SFH 🙂
The correct statistical term is “net foreign migration”, which includes all movement in and out of the country, of any status.
Trade courses were great for kids like myself who weren’t into academics . I don’t know what kids today are taking that aren’t into mainstream stuff like code and ai and stuff . I have a feeling I would suck today
That would make too much sense, so unfortunately I think the answer is no. I think the law is that you can’t waive the legal rights of a minor. Insurance is still it.
I think another factor is the declining enrollment in a lot of schools. If they have to cut offerings they are going to cut the less popular and more expensive to offer classes. In the late 60’s Esquimalt high built a house with student labour. It was no longer offered when I got there a couple of years later. 30 years later when we were shopping for schools for our child all of the practical courses were pretty much gone or only shells of what I remember. I gather from a friend that has kids in school that they now have a decent selection of automotive courses. Obviously this stuff changes year to year and school to school.
Couldn’t the student’s parents sign a waiver that would remove any responsibility for injury if they want their child to learn something useful. There’s risk involved in almost everything, we’ve become overly cautious and protective. There are people you wouldn’t want near a circular saw or table saw, however.
52 maquinna sold for 2.48. is it really a 370k worse house than their neighbor?
Funny story in grad 10 our woodwork teacher was building a house , and the class did a lot of his millwork and cabinet doors and such for the course. We where so chafed he let us work on his house , I’m guessing he passed everyone lol
That’s another reason real estate is unaffordable, the ridiculous insurance premiums the trades require. Especially roofers. Someone has to pay for it.
My friend was a framing teacher for few years at Royal Bay Secondary. They most built sheds and sold them but there was also some legit on-site training as well they organized with the students.
Talking to our woodwork teacher years later I was suprised they axed woodwork and all their machinery cause it was deemed too dangerous and they had an insurance problem. I don’t think it’s changed today, they probably don’t teach welding and metalwork either
Frank , The class was actually home construction and it was in Richmond . I know the class was going on since the 60s and some point around 90 it was axed . But ya there was a actual house being built up next to the school and I never thought anything of it and assumed other schools where doing it too
I’ve never heard of a school offering a course where they build an actual house. That can’t be your average school.
We had a course in 11/12 where we built a house at our school. They started a new 1 every year , it wouldn’t be complete but covered the basics and that’s how myself and a few others got started in the trade
Exactly. I’m not a plumber but I’m not about to drop 3 grand on a hotwater tank install when I can just go up to Andrew Sheret and buy one for $400 and install it myself while enjoying a beer or 6.
I’m rebuilding a large deck on the house I just bought. I’m estimating 3 grand for materials, maybe more, plus sweat equity. Friends are suggesting I hire professionals. Probably run me 30 grand. No thanks, that’s the problem today, few people are willing to put in the sweat equity, or capable. Moving 16 foot 2x10s is not fun. I’ll be 70 next month. Instead of teaching Shakespeare, we should be teaching basic construction since housing has become unaffordable. To build or not to build.
There is no such thing as affordable housing. The cost associated with constructing housing is just way too high for “affordable” to even be a thing. And its never going to come back down.
Not even with this modular prefab shit their talking about!
Well yeah, going to work everyday is way easier than doing whatever it is that they have to do to survive everyday.
They need to get their shit together and figure that out… But whatever.
No one wants to deal with it. As the problem just keeps growing, and growing, and growing.
Kinda reminds me of all the potatoes I have growing.
Lmao you are a certified idiot.
Broadmead is known for its wooded lots, and that identity isn’t incidental—it’s integral to the neighborhood’s appeal. Prospective purchasers looking to buy in Broadmead are typically drawn to the privacy, natural beauty, and character that treed parcels provide. A cleared lot, while perhaps offering practical advantages, may feel incongruent with the surrounding environment.
Buyers seeking cleared lots tend to look in neighborhoods where openness and sun exposure are the norm. In Broadmead, a cleared parcel can stand out in ways that limit buyer interest rather than expand it. The market response is shaped not just by utility, but by fit—and in real estate, fit drives competition.
Sellers may expect a premium for a cleared lot, especially if they’ve invested in site preparation. But if the majority of buyers are seeking wooded parcels, the pool of interested purchasers shrinks. The cleared lot becomes a niche offering, and its price is determined not by how rare it is, but by how well it aligns with buyer expectations.
A buyer for a cleared lot is not bidding in a competitive pool of cleared-lot seekers; they’re bidding in a market dominated by buyers who value trees, privacy, and the established Broadmead aesthetic. So the cleared-lot buyer knows they’re not up against a frenzy—they’re up against indifference.
The cleared lot may sell faster, and it may attract a specific buyer—but unless that buyer is competing with others who share their preference, the price remains tethered to the broader market.
Basically you’re trying to sell a unicorn to people that want a horse.
Lol
Rest assured, I will make things incredibly simple for you going forward.
.>>.> Canada population is stagnating and may decline in 2025 and 2026
Yes, given the expected reductions of temporary workers/students, overall population looks to be flat for 2025 and 2026. With government estimates for population growth resuming to about 700,000 in 2027 and beyond, TD has charted the various contributors, and immigration (pr) numbers are expected to stay constant around 400,000/ year.
Growth of 700,000 in 2027 is 1.4% population growth per year, which is “back to normal”.
The real distortion was the huge increase in temporary workers/students in 2022-24,(shown in green bars on chart1 below) which is now being unwound,. I don’t think temporary foreign workers/students have much effect on RE demand. There’s a ban on foreigners buying most residential RE in Canada, and the young workers/students aren’t in a position to buy anyway. Most of them are renting a single room somewhere, or living in employer provided accommodation.
https://economics.td.com/ca-popping-population-bubble
990 Cottontree is back on the market at 1.55. this should be be a good indication on the discount a broadmead house on a sub-optimal lot compared to a diserable lot. Won’t be a perfect comparison as this house does have some renovations and a 2 bed suite compared to the recent solds on the diserable lots.
If you are referring to “population”, use the term “population”.
Which of course is different than “immigration”. When talking about immigration, use the term “immigration”.’
When you use the correct terms , you then won’t be making posts about confusing charts you see e.g. “ On immigration, everyone out there seems to have a different chart showing different outcomes, based on whether group X is counted”.
In reality, the charts are likely correct, if you were again mixing up “population” with “immigration”.
People dying every day doesn’t help.
Canada population is stagnating and may decline in 2025 and 2026. BC population has declined marginally in Q2. – 2025
I’m confident you know I’m referring to population growth, which is net zero. This is just further to my point about different charts pointing to X group or Y group. What matters is whether there will be more people in Canada next year than there are this year.
That is for certain. I see this Travelodge thing as a testament to well-intentioned but ill-formed policies. Without active monitoring or real attempts at detox, mental health help and rehabilitation, what is it now other than a sordid ghetto? And “if you build it, they will come” – does anyone doubt we could just re-house the Pandora folks right now in yet another repurposed motel that turns into another ghetto, and then within a year a whole other group would be on Pandora or elsewhere? Warehousing these people without actual intervention, in prime Core locations to boot (ridiculous in my view), is never going to solve anything. And yes indeed, it’s a separate issue than affordable housing more generally & conflating them is probably not useful.
If we want to help these people, we have to do the hard stuff that goes beyond chucking them into a ghetto. And no, I don’t have the solutions, it seems overwhelming.
We have this example of someone who was not overwhelmed and tried something in their corner of the world, from one of our own HHV members:
https://www.timescolonist.com/entertainment/a-message-of-peace-at-woodwynn-farms-4621898
I assume this died from NIMBYism. But at least it was a genuine effort.
I have some reservations about the current plan. We’ve seen similar approaches tried in other countries and cities, with mixed results. Take the Travelodge acquisition, for example—well-intentioned, but ultimately a stopgap. It addressed immediate shelter needs, not long-term housing stability.
That’s a very different proposition from building housing for the lowest quartile of income earners. Habitat for Humanity is a good example of what that looks like: permanent, affordable ownership models designed for working families. It’s proactive, not reactive. And it builds equity, not just shelter.
Let’s not conflate emergency response with structural solutions. If the goal is to create susstainable affordability, we need to be clear about which population we’re serving—and whether the model is built to endure.
They serve fundamentally different purposes, and conflating them muddies the policy conversation.
Work is easier than homelessness. Work only takes 8 hours a day. Being homeless takes 24 hours a day.
I actually think that the term “homeless” is a misnomer. My definition of homeless is someone who has an income but cannot afford today’s rental rates or house prices. Most “homeless” people do not fall into that category. Therefore, building “affordable” housing would not solve the problem. Something most advocates do not understand.
This program, all 13 billion of it, to produce modular homes, will only take up more tradespeople that will ultimately drive up the cost of housing for hard working people. Good plan Carney. I’ve seen property built and given away, it gets boarded up in a couple months.
Its way too big. And your affordability plan just means higher taxes for everyone that drags their asses out of bed everyday, puts on a smile, goes out there and gets shit done, gets paid for doing that… Because they understand that’s just how life works.
Even a wild animal has to get up everyday and hunt for prey. Its really no different than just hoping in your truck and going to work… Infact its way easier to just hop in the truck and go to work.
Groot. They’re junkies man. I love humanity just as much as anyone else and really wish this would all just go away. We need to stop the enabling.
Max, don’t jump the shark. The thread’s about homelessness, not Jimi Hendrix.
“Affordable” is easier to toss around because it’s quantifiable—30% of income, median rent benchmarks, etc. But it’s also relative and slippery. What’s affordable to you might be completely out of reach for someone living on disability income or minimum wage. It’s a moving target, shaped by policy, privilege, and postal code.
“Sustainable,” on the other hand, demands more than just affordability. It demands durability, dignity, and design that doesn’t trap people in cycles of crisis. It’s not just about putting a roof over someone’s head—it’s about building systems that break the cycle.
In the context of homelessness, sustainable housing means permanent solutions, not temporary fixes. It means stability, support, and infrastructure that actually works—for the long haul.
So yes, Max, ‘affordable’ is easier to say. But ‘sustainable’ is harder to ignore—because it’s the only thing that actually ends homelessness.
Now before you go full ape-shit on me again, let me explain—I’ve got reservations about the Liberal plan. So maybe try keeping your pecker in your pants this time.
Your talk of “immigration at net zero” is not correct.
In Canadian law and policy, temporary foreign workers and international students are not considered “immigrants.”
You’re confusing immigrants (permanent residents – PR) with temporary residents (non-immigrants, consisting of foreign workers and students). Any talk of “ immigration at net zero ” means you are adding up immigrants (about 400k per year) and subtracting the non-immigrant temporary workers. In reality. Immigration is about 400,000 per year and projected to continue like that.
Come on Groot. WTF are you talking about? Sustain housing? At what price level? And what decade should the sustained price level be sustained?
Jimmie Hendrix was very good at sustaining a note for a considerable amount of time. Unfortunately he passed.
Yes—a significant portion of Build Canada Homes (BCH) units are being built to house people experiencing homelessness, especially through transitional and supportive housing models. it’s a step toward a more balanced housing ecosystem. But whether it “improves the market” depends on your vantage point.
The term “Affordability” has become a catch-all, often stripped of nuance. It’s tossed around by politicians, developers, and media alike, but rarely defined with precision. Is it affordability relative to income? To market rent? To cost of living? The term’s elasticity makes it convenient—and misleading. Developers use it to justify projects that barely skim below market rates. Governments use it to announce funding without clarifying outcomes. And media repeats it without interrogating what it actually means.
I was having coffee recently with a group of long-time Victoria residents, and the topic of housing came up—as it often does. What struck me was their shared skepticism around the term “affordable housing.” One of them put it plainly: “It’s more marketing than substance.” And they’re right.
The term has been stretched to cover everything from luxury rentals with token discounts to deeply subsidized units, often without clarity or accountability. It’s become a convenient label—used to signal good intentions while sidestepping the harder questions about viability, equity, and permanence.
One suggestion from the table stuck with me: maybe we should be talking about sustainable housing instead.
Hey man. I’ve wasted a bunch of time and money on a bunch of stupid shit in the past too! Its imperative for a successful marriage to just go ahead and let that shit happen!
But at the end of the day, she makes the wheels turn… All I have to do is give her all my money.
Its super easy, I don’t have a care in the world, she takes care of everything including me.
She gives me a generous allowance.
Just keep the income flowing in… And I’m golden man.
Only a few cities have been selected for this new program. These houses are non-market properties, they won’t be for sale or rent. They are being built to house the homeless. This is nothing more than a social welfare program. It will not improve the affordability of housing one iota. More government b.s.
So far, no federal lands in Victoria have been earmarked under the Build Canada Homes initiative.
Sites like Work Point Barracks and Belmont are prime candidates for redevelopment. They offer strategic locations, existing infrastructure, and the potential to deliver meaningful housing supply
But land alone won’t solve the problem. We need to build or expand modular housing factories first. Without production capacity, the promise of factory-built homes is just talk. With it, we create a guaranteed market for years to come—giving manufacturers the confidence to invest and scale.
This is where government leadership matters. If Ottawa leads with land, infrastructure, and demand certainty, private land developers and urban infill homes will follow.
Your next new home might be delivered by FedEx. It’s not quite “next-day delivery,” but it’s a far cry from the delays and cost overruns of traditional construction.
The federal government’s new Canada Rental Protection Fund, now part of the Build Canada Homes initiative, is earmarking $1.5 billion to acquire existing apartment buildings and preserve affordable rental housing. The program is expected to attract interest from institutional landlords—including Canada’s two largest apartment REITs—as they consider divesting older assets.
Build Canada Homes, the newly launched federal housing agency, will also gain access to 88 federally owned properties spanning 463 hectares nationwide. Its mandate includes accelerating the construction of factory-built housing and collaborating with industry to scale up production.
This marks a significant shift in Ottawa’s approach to housing: combining public land, modular construction, and strategic acquisitions to address affordability and supply.
Regardless of which side is ‘right’ about immigration, it’s not driving any meaningful increase in home prices or vacancy rates in Victoria. The data simply doesn’t support the idea that immigration is the primary pressure point here.
On immigration, everyone out there seems to have a different chart showing different outcomes, based on whether group X is counted or the rate at which group Y is leaving the country. The Liberals’ plan is purportedly to keep immigration at net zero for now: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/opinion/article-canada-immigration-population-newcomers-poilievre/
I suppose only time will tell which perspective is correct.
Immigration levels have remained high, with 395k for 2025, and projections for 380k average over the next three years. These numbers are still way above pre-COVID. (See chart)
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2025-2027.html
I agree. I think a lot of the prior blow up was probably attributable to low rates coupled with a reasonably strong economy. I think that latter piece is now missing, and I’m not sure when it will return. Perhaps sometime next year, but I’d be surprised at any strength this year.
Of course, immigration was another factor, and that seems like it also will also be muted for a while.
I except SFH prices to keep rising in core Victoria (COV, Saanich, oak bay).
For example, in Saanich the total number of SFH has been fixed around 22,500 since 2011, and is even falling slightly due to to teardowns. (See graphic of the numbers). Yet the Saanich population increase since then has been 8% (from 109k to 118k). And over next ten years Saanich population projected to rise about 6%, and SFH expected to fall below 22,000.
Expressed using HHV’s “hotdog” metaphor, this means : “More people, but fewer hot dogs”
With only a quarter point cut in the U.S Powell is going to be toast
Groot , rates matter , but I agree people will buy real estate after sales and prices go up . Sheep mentality, fearful folks move as a mob.
Fixed rates have already fallen from the mid 5s in 2024 to as low as 3.7 per cent but the real estate market has not substantially improved. Despite better borrowing conditions, sales volume have barely budged.
The deeper challenge is psychology. It’s not rates but confidence.
A rate cut won’t have any effect on the Victoria housing market. Other Canadian cities have hot markets, the most expensive markets are just too expensive for the majority of people.
Just as important to c what the U.S does with rates today and gotta get Canadian banks going after the mortgage business again
Hey all. I appreciate the wisdom on this forum and am a long time lurker. Wife and I currently own a home in Maple Bay. I was wondering if anyone could shed some light on the idea of buying a condo in Victoria to rent out. The hope isn’t to be cash positive on it, but to build equity in the hopes of being able to sell one day and help our kids (we have 3) even with a bit of cash one day to soften the blow with the high cost of living. Our thoughts are, a condo, right now, is the lowest barrier to entry in the market and with our financials it’s something we could realistically do. Is this still something people do? Can anyone shed some light on the negatives or potential pit falls outside of regular landlord stuff (bad tenants etc.). The things I can think of off the top of my head are: condo special assessments and potentially dealing with a toxic or fussy strata. Just looking to take in a bit of your experience. Thanks a million guys.
BOC cut 25 basis points…..will it have a positive impact on our sluggish real estate market?
Lol finally you actually speak some truth for once. Some projects don’t even pencil with free land currently.
Shed with metal roof and mainland. Wasn’t a fan of the barrel ones.
I don’t think it’s putting in extra financial effort, I make more so I should be contributing more financially to the household. And if having a backyard sauna or expensive furniture makes her happy then so be it, it’s something we can both enjoy anyways.
Barrel sauna or shed style? Sourced from the island or the mainland?
Extending the amortization period to 50 years can improve short-term cash flow by reducing monthly debt service. However, it comes at the cost of slower equity accumulation and significantly higher interest payments over the life of the loan. Compared to a 25-year term, borrowers would build equity much more gradually, particularly in the early years, and total interest paid would be substantially greater. A 50-year mortgage may also extend beyond the borrower’s working years, complicating retirement planning and long-term financial security.
That said, these concerns primarily apply when the mortgage is tied to an individual. For established corporations or pension funds, the limitations of personal timelines and retirement horizons do not apply. These entities operate on longer investment horizons and may prioritize stable cash flow and asset control over rapid equity growth. In such cases, a 50-year amortization could be a strategic tool rather than a liability.
And that is very good for you bro. I am all for success stories man. People get what they put in… Then people get what they deserve. If you were to separate yourself from the rat race, you would find the greatest asset you hold is your Wife. Its important to keep them happy.
I’m going on 35 years with mine now. Gotta be doing something right!
I just don’t seem to have to put in as much finical effort as you do. She just loves me no matter what.
Groot, easy fix , 50 year mortgages. Who cares how much it costs it’s the monthly payment that matters
A pro forma is the financial blueprint of a housing project—essentially a business plan in spreadsheet form. At its core, it includes:
• Costs: land, construction, financing, government fees, and developer profit
• Revenues: projected sale or rental income
• Bottom line: lenders typically require a projected return of at least 15% before approving financing
If the numbers don’t meet that threshold, the bank won’t lend—and the project doesn’t proceed.
This is the crux of today’s housing crisis:
• On one side: what people can afford
• On the other: what it costs to deliver a home
• A viable project only happens when those numbers overlap
Right now, they often don’t.
Unless we address the cost side—by reducing municipal fees, streamlining provincial building codes, improving supply chain efficiency, and tackling construction inefficiencies—we risk housing construction grinding to a halt.
Thanks for the new post, Leo! Much appreciated.
I like my house, as you would put it I am on a pretty private 1/3 acre in a pretty diserable neighborhood in the core and just got a backyard sauna installed for the wife.
Floodgates won’t make people or businesses come here in scale, bigger airport with direct transocean flights will.
So what do you suggest? We open up the floodgates again? I think it will be a 10 year flatline if we don’t. So if your living somewhere you should probably plan on living there for awhile if your into it for the money.
Their wallets are skinny in comparison and they likely would retire somewhere actually warm all year around.
I don’t have a problem with that as long as the customers are in house (Canadian Citizens) I could really give a shit what race they are. I could totally appreciate folks with fat wallets from the peg or the vag wanting to get the hell out of there and move to something much more desirable such as vic.
Well it won’t help you very much if you just have one house that’s your principal and you don’t plan on selling and leaving town. Its also a detriment if you want to upgrade within Victoria in the future.
Joe, you can never have enough , it’s only business.
More that I’d rather Victoria hold onto some of its charm rather than be flooded with international arrivals just for the sake of adding a digit or two to my property value. Not to mention the effect on the next generation. I think pursuing wealth mindlessly is best left to the mindless. I’ve done well enough.
Vicre, 100% Victoria is very desirable and if we can attract folks with fat wallets that should be our number 1 goal .
If you don’t already own by then but still want to own then yes it would be.
Sounds like a worst case scenario to me.
If you can go direct to london, paris, dubai, hong kong, beijing etc. from YYJ then you will start to see actual international money here in some scale. That will drive up pricing for all the diserable neighborhoods in the core right away.
I would like to c that . Right now I have good gig flying Vic to Calgary and on to London . With the expansion of the airport here we might be seeing some more choice , wouldn’t that be nice
Thursty, you know what will really quench your thurst? If YYJ is ever expanded to accommodate trans atlantic/pacific flights then that’s when Vic RE will go through the roof.
One more sleep till we c another cut in interest rates , the good ol days are returning