This correction might be half over
We’re going just over three years since we hit peak pricing in the spring of 2022. It hasn’t been a real price crash (though some people that overpaid in 2021/2022 were hit hard), but we’re still down moderately from those levels. That’s been tough for sellers to accept, with many preferring to list and relist and relist instead of accepting a lower-than-peak price.
But 3 years is a long time. Rates are down a bit, incomes are up a bit, higher than normal inflation has eaten away at real prices, and concerns around mass mortgage delinquencies failed to materialize. After three years of higher rates, a good chunk of risk has dissipated. And while the condo market in Toronto is catastrophically bad right now, our much lower unemployment rate (it’s risen lately, but still 3.9% vs 9% in Toronto), and a broad shift to building rentals instead of condos here is helping keep the supply from exploding.
Does that mean we’re nearing the end of this slow market and prices will start going up again soon?
If our history is anything to go by, probably not.
The last condo corrections in Victoria were:
- Just under 8 years long after the 1981 crash. Prices dipped as far as 40% from peak (and that’s nominal prices).
- 8+ years long after the 90s. This one was unique in that it was extended and had a second price dip due to the leaky condo crisis.
- 5 or 6 years long after 2010, depending on what exactly you consider peak and recovery. There really wasn’t a huge decline here, mostly hovering around -5% for a few years. Prices actually recovered peak a couple times briefly, but it wasn’t durable until 6 years in.
Right now we are just over 3 years in, which – unless this correction is very unlike our previous ones – would put us at 2-5 years out from price recovery. Call it roughly halfway there.
That matches up with affordability data, which shows that while we’ve seen a substantial improvement in affordability since 2022, we’re still far from the level where prices usually start turning clearly up again.
It’s possible that due to the shortage of new construction supply, the market will turn around earlier than normal this time, but it’s hard to believe that it would be this early. Lower rates (if they’re coming), would do a lot to help here, but right now we’re in a bit of a holding pattern on that front. So it’s probably not a great time to buy a condo if you’re hoping to make strong gains in the short term, though if you’re holding for longer periods, it may actually be one of the better times.
Also the weekly market activity:
| June 2025 |
June
2024
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 185 | 375 | 661 | ||
| New Listings | 427 | 808 | 1495 | ||
| Active Listings | 3729 | 3763 | 3459 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 43% | 46% | 44% | ||
| Sales YoY Change (per business day) |
— | +10% | -6% | ||
| New Lists YoY Change (per business day) |
— | -6% | +15% | ||
| Inventory YoY Change | +10% | +10% | +48% | ||
| Months of Inventory | 5.2 | ||||
Decent start to June, with 10% higher sales rate compared to this time last year month to date. The VREB stats show a decline in new listings per business day, but it’s probably pretty close to even for residential new listings in the metro Victoria area based on the daily data.
Inventory is still creeping up, but it seems unlikely that we’ll crack 4000 listings this year before it turns down again.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/06/24/new-developments-with-suites-and-capital-gains-tax/
I am not saying people should cheap out, I was simply responding to the other comment about wcb etc. lol I don’t even think people should DYI around the house unless it’s minor and they are competent.
When it comes to a roof replacement on my PR I will only hire the top dogs. Admiral’s roofing or Aerial roofing. These guys stand behind their work which is why they are so very successful. They follow all work safe protocols, they are organized and clean, they tear the existing shingles off into a bin, they will do a 3/8″ re-sheet, replace all plumbing and roof vents, replace skylights, all new step flashings. They will then seal the sheathing with a blue skin membrane, then they will supply and install the 25 year roofing shingles, and finally any roofing compound caulking for counter flashings around masonry chimneys.
They will leave your gutters and grounds spotless, they will give you a written 25 year warranty for the roof, they have been in business for decades. They give you a solid quote with no surprises and offer a service you can trust. I’m looking at $18k for a two story 2600 sq/ft house with four skylight replacements and a fair bit of lower level roof overhang coverage. Its a big job and $18k all in is a good price. I’ve done the math.
https://www.aerial-roofing.ca/
https://www.yelp.ca/biz/admirals-roofing-saanichton
That’s when the home owner is acting as the employer. Keep reading, it’s not as black and white when it’s a independent contractor which is effectively what the OP was describing.
No she read it right. A waiver would not actually do anything, as each project is either subject to the Workers Compensation Act or not. If it’s going to take more than 24 man hours to complete, which a roof would, then you’re subject to the WCA and would be accountable for all compensation paid to any injured workers if you are not registered with WSBC.
You should probably learn how to read first?
LOL. ROTFLMAO. LOL. etc. etc.
https://www.worksafebc.com/en/insurance/need-coverage/who-needs-coverage/homeowners
All comes down to the relationship you have with the kids I suppose.
You could get those guys to sign a waiver.
Could be. Just a gut feeling that it’s a better layout. Could end up as a failed experiment…
ok but if they’re sort of doing this off the books then unlikely to be WCB insured, and you’re one slip & coma away from a significant problem?
Don’t see the separation as you are still sharing walls, outdoor space and parking in a missing middle. If you don’t want to be in each other’s business then you should just live in physically separate homes.
I would go on a case by case basis. I doubt 1970s homes built in mass in areas like Gordon Head were great quality; however, still standing today.
Original post already deleted but I said the initial version and it wasn’t very specific on what the issues beyond quality of fit and finish like gaps in-between baseboards and flooring which can be fixed with quarter round.
The price decreases in the core seem to be working. The number of sales of downtown condos are up for the last 30 days while the median sale price remained steady.
Sidekick , agree, gotta kick them out so they can get on with their lives . I couldn’t even imagine being 25 and still living at home ugh
That’s why I prefer a townhome layout over a big multigen. More separation, and ability to more easily stata and nope out of there.
Man who would want they’re adult kids living
With them , a bigger shite show would be if they had a spouse too yikes.
Not at all. It’s just a view I’ve seen resurface a few times (including a post in today’s Victoria subreddit).
Even with the best inspector, the worst defects can always be hidden by something. Have you seen reliable evidence that post-pandemic builds are more likely to have problems, or is it just what you’ve been hearing?
Now try a 2000 sqft condo at a very basic $0.50/sqft for strata escalated at a very conservative 2% a year and see how much you shell out over 25 years. You can add in water/sewer to make a more apples/apples comparison
There are many older homes that’s been well kept and renovated here in Victoria.
This was my plan but now I’m also seeing advice not to buy anything build since COVID because of quality issues, so I’m torn between dated builds that remind me of a grandma’s house or shiny new things that I hesitate to trust. (I’m searching mostly up-island rather than here in Victoria.)
I suppose the answer is to find an inspector I can trust to check the shiny new thing.
You can take the south east asian approach and do a family compound instead. Large main house with 3 separate living suites plus a garden suite. If you want to sharing a home with your kids then you may want to consider a bigger main living area if grand children involved etc.
https://housesigma.com/bc/saanich-real-estate/4580-bonnieview-pl/home/JKdOYrG20Gqy54lW?id_listing=DO1w3W9d49Oy8Jg0&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=
I guess I will try to post my observations on stuff I see not quite accurate..
Roofing:
for new roofing installation and materials, the popular quote I got is around $3.8-$4…
For older/replacement of typical 2600sqft homes( roofer actually uses 21 square ) to measure the size of the coverage for the materials.. It is not rocket science to figuring out how much the materials cost if I just spend a few days parked by Roofmart or any other suppliers stores in town (has to be early) to see which company shows up early to grab their materials and get their contact info and get them to give you a quote and you can just buy the materials directly from the suppliers and hire a bunch of labour from facebook marketplace and you are likely to save $8,000-$12,000.
For painting, I just go to paint stores to grab some mistinted one and the cost is around 35-40 bucks for a 5 gallon pail. That’s good for 2000 sqft coverage – for prim, I keep using a retired guy account from the school board- he gets odd jobs from time to time still ( after years of retirement)
a few friends came over after work and asked me where the heck did I find time and tricks to find all those materials, I told them during work, I drive around older homes shoot the shit with retired guys and kept tracking the info.. and I asked time-off while using up my vac days. Vac days is slowing accumulating and I have not really have a chance to go travel anywhere far yet.. I guess I will travel soon after wrapping up another rental here.
Month Jun Jun
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 555 661
New Listings 1,178 1,495
Active Listings 3,797 3,459
We could potentially hit 750 sales which would be the strongest June we’ve had in four years. If we clear 758 that would mean more sales than May which is not common (typically May is a stronger month than June).
I personally thought once the BOC held we would see very slow sales but they seem to be turning around for whatever reason. Victoria real estate seems to be literally impossible to predict.
Agreed. We bought multi-family for this purpose more than 10 years ago. Have never regretted it and our adult kids already benefit from having lower cost stable housing in a high cost environment.
This is how I’m approaching my next project, and why the missing middle is appealing. My partner and I aren’t interested in retiring in a big house with big prop taxes. Neither do we want to sell and move out of the city (like to have the option of being close to friends and support infrastructure). The ability to build 3 or 4 smaller units means we can trade elder care for a unit. Or help out a kid or a parent. Or rent/sell if the need arises.
Missing middle definitely wouldn’t have been a first choice for me in the past, but as we move towards being empty nesters / retirement, it does tick a lot of boxes.
.
Its $2.30 per day.
At $68.50 per month in 25 years you’ll have just enough to pay for a roof at today’s prices.
Thanks for letting me know what they paid at absolute peak market.
Agree, if you buy a house in good shape, maintenance is minimal outside of roof, hot water, paint, fence and yard (including irrigation) upkeep.
That whole area is land assembly…Even Bucky’s. I think your correct “top of this cycle”. I think its a good holding property given the houses/ commercial spaces are in place and can be rented out for a decade or two and cover the carrying costs.
‘Development site market is completely dead. You list such a property and hope for one inquiry. If there is no interest in such properties how on earth am I suppose to use that to my advantage? This is real life, not la la fantasy land where you “manipulate numbers to your advantage.”
//
2639 Sooke Road Langford, BC V9B 1Y3
it appears this one was sold in Jan 2022(+-) within 1 day after listing at $75/sqft without zoning in place( perhaps it was marketed before that) and buyers must thought they got a great deal as within the same year as land at Station Ave were traded at $100/sqft. However, the highest number I saw was around 157/sqft of dirt( in Feb/March 2022), and that’s perhaps the top of this cycle .
Some tier 2 or tier1 developers started to build out and some of tier 3 did not proceed.
the la la fantasy land is real if you have no access to the map.
New roof for a typical 2600 sq/ft SFH 25 year roofing shingles $18k = $60 per month. (supplied and installed).
New electric hotwater tank every five years $500 = $8.50 per month. (I purchase and install).
Electric baseboard heaters last forever and so does the 200 amp panel that runs them.
So that’s $68.50 per month in SFH maintenance costs for an average SFH if you have a half a brain and can operate a cordless drill, handle a paint brush and mow the lawn.
The reserve fund built into strata fees often gets overlooked when people compare condo and detached home ownership. It’s essentially prepaying for major capital repairs, which can be a more disciplined and predictable way of handling future costs. Meanwhile many homeowners deal with big-ticket items like roofs or windows reactively—either dipping into savings or refinancing when the need arises.
So if you’re comparing the two, it’s not just about current cash outflows. It’s about when and how those expenses hit, and the risks or flexibility that come with each approach. Factoring in replacement reserves really helps level the playing field in those comparisons.
Comparison of maintenance costs, which is what were talking about. no. Comparison of total return, yes.
You’re on the right track—land itself isn’t depreciated because it has an indefinite useful life, but land improvements (like paving, fencing, or lighting) are depreciable because they wear out over time.
These improvements are typically depreciated over their useful life, often using the straight-line or observed condition methods. However, when calculating depreciation, the replacement cost can come into play—especially for insurance or valuation purposes. As replacement costs rise due to inflation or material/labor costs, the estimated value of the improvement might increase.
A house in 1960 may have cost $2,500 to build, but today it may be $250,000. The home may have diminished in utility to half the replacement cost to say $125,000 which is higher than its original cost to build.
The proper comparison also includes appreciation over time.
Although yards require maintenance, the cost is usually quite low per square foot while the appreciation rate on land is very high. Structures depreciate.
When you buy a SFH you buy more land as a % of the purchase price which is why they appreciate more overall. Between 1990 and 2020 there was an average appreciation rate of 4.7% in condos, which lags that of the detached market which was a percent higher at 5.7%. 1% compounded over time is a significant difference and can pay for a lot of maintenance. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/11/16/returns-in-the-investment-condo-market/
SFHs can also have a suite. That suite income after tax can pay for all the O&M. This makes it a clear winner on cost to operate, even accounting for your time to manage it.
In addition, sweat equity is a thing. If you are handy, money and time invested in a SFH can raise the value equal to exceeding the costs of strategic improvements. You can do this with a condo to an extent, but much more limited upside.
Of course the house is likely going to be more expensive because it’s a larger property with a larger purchase price. That’s just as true for larger condo versus smaller condo.
The proper comparison is total maintenance costs adjusted per square foot or per dollar purchase price. And do note that condo fees cover only common property maintenance, you also have to add interior maintenance which is on you.
“Modular” sounds too much like “manufactured,” which unfortunately carries baggage for a lot of people. The confusion between modular and manufactured homes can shape public perception in all the wrong ways. Modular homes are built to the same codes and standards as site-built homes and are placed on permanent foundations, while manufactured homes are often located on leased land. That nuance gets lost when unscrupulous contractors muddy the waters, whether out of ignorance or intentional sales tactics.
Misinformation like that can lead to stigma, financing issues, or undervaluing a perfectly high-quality home. It’s frustrating, especially when modular construction can actually offer huge benefits in terms of speed, cost-efficiency, and environmental control during building.
But call it “Next-Gen Housing” or something like “Precision-Built Housing,” and the mental image shifts from factory line to boutique craftsmanship.
The industry has done itself few favors by sticking to terminology that doesn’t reflect the quality or innovation of the product. You wouldn’t market a luxury car by calling it a “mass-assembled vehicle. A rebrand could be half the battle.
Vic, well played, I did leave myself open to that one.
Marco, is $600 really the going rate for monthly condo fees on a 700K unit? In the long run I still think a older house will be more expensive with things like roof replacements, drains, insurance, landscaping etc..
But I guess if condo fees and maintenance fees are the same there is just the little matter of coming up with the 700K extra purchase cost.
The problem is banks don’t like them. They like real estate, not modular estate.
Modular homes offer a flexible, cost-effective way for homeowners to “move up” without moving out. Instead of relocating to the suburbs or entirely new cities, people can upgrade their living space while staying rooted in their communities.
In Canada, modular homes are increasingly seen as a solution to the housing crunch. They’re faster to build, often more affordable than traditional construction, and can be customized to fit urban lots. For someone who owns a small starter home, replacing it with a larger modular home—or even adding a modular extension—can be a smart way to grow with their family or needs without giving up their neighborhood ties.
This approach also supports gentle densification: increasing housing supply without drastically altering the character of a neighborhood. It’s a win-win for cities trying to balance growth with livability.
If I wasn’t married I would have absolutely no problem living in a sea can. Just rent one of those flush toilets that are now mandatory on large construction sites.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024LBR0015-001441
Modular homes and 25 billion for housing.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/can-modular-home-building-solve-canada-s-housing-crisis/vi-AA1H7ViT?ocid=socialshare
Some people were just not meant to be landlords, and I’m one of them. My basement suite has been vacant since 2002.
Having a tenant living in your PR is not worth the extra 2k per month IMHO.
There is something to be said for splitting that out.
Or perhaps imposing a poll tax.
” One good thing about having a suite is that it can transition to providing a home for an adult child and then for someone who provides on-site eldercare if needed.”
I agree with that.
It’s why our family has loved investing in real estate all our life and we have done quite well by it.
But of course….it doesn’t have to be one thing or the other when it comes to investing, and everyone has their own preference that suits their own circumstances and their personalities.
I have to say that I still worry about what is ahead of us when it comes to world affairs. Best to keep your heads down I would say.
Good luck to everyone. Enjoy music.
I don’t think the roi on a condo will beat a SFH with a suite in Victoria. I did the math for this and posted it here many years ago. Maybe someone can find it if they are interested.
I also don’t think there will be a better time to buy than now for a SFH if you can afford it – unless there is an earthquake. However, if you are talking about carefree living and you don’t have kids and want to travel, I think a condo can beat a SFH for quality of life if you get the right unit in the right building.
People tend to age out of being landlords and then many also age out of wanting the responsibilities of a SFH. Personally, the best option for me is a smaller home that can be modified as you age. One good thing about having a suite is that it can transition to providing a home for an adult child and then for someone who provides on-site eldercare if needed.
A 700k condo will have strata fees these days of $600 per month so that condo will be more expensive on a monthly basis when you add property taxes + strata fees versus just property taxes for a SFH.
Yes, a house needs maintenance but some people can do it themselves and you have a lot more options at your disposal (hiring smaller ones person operations with low overhead, etc.)
This doesn’t even factor a suite you can potentially rent for $2,000/month.
Owning anything costs money. Insurance, taxes, maintenance, major repairs, that’s why you can never stop working.
Actually your mom is cooking me lunch.
Marko would you agree that it would be easier to pay property taxes on a 700K condo vs a 1.4MM house, the condo fees would still be less than home maintence long term.
I think your mom is calling you to come up from the basement for lunch.
Yes they won’t get north vs south mixed up that’s for sure
Taxes are taxes. Even tenants pay property taxes, they just don’t know it because its inclusive.
Property taxes apply to condos and townhomes as well so not sure how that would decrease the differential? Throw in strata fees for condos and townhomes and income producing suites for SFHs I just don’t see the differential getting smaller given overall inventory of strata will increase substantially while SFH inventory at some point will actually start to shrink.
“Long term I just can’t see how SFH aren’t going to outpace condos and townhomes irrelevant of what the market is doing the whole (up/down).”
–
I would agree with that statement although with property taxes going up by what I said for a long time to my clients over the years will be at least 2x -3x inflation, indefinitely as we replace aging infrastructure or in Langfords case actually building missing infrastructure like sidewalks etc..this may start to price people out of home ownership. Also given the amount of debt individuals and countries are racking up the bond market may start to demand higher interest rates due to risk and this may also keep a lid on housing prices.
There will also be so many people receiving so much money as boomers die off that this may continue to widen the gap between the haves and have nots or homeowners and condo owners.
But then again AI and robots will completely change our world so who knows what will happen so stay diversified and don’t take on excessive risk.
Even though you have me muted, I agree with you 100%. Buy dirt while you still can.
My constructive thoughts would be if you want a SFH buy one as soon as you possibly can as I honestly can’t see how the situation will be any better in the future? I don’t see a strategy.
i/ 20 years ago in BC we were building 15,000 SFHs/year and now we are building 5,000 SFHs/year and I believe that number will continue to drop. The population 20 years ago for 4.1 million and now it is 5.7 million so if you adjust for that a complete collapse in SFH construction.
ii/ As missing middle product comes to fruition and some of these projects start to pencil and make sense in all likelihood the demand for such projects will increase (resulting in more SFHs being demolished; therefore, lowering SFH stock).
Long term I just can’t see how SFH aren’t going to outpace condos and townhomes irrelevant of what the market is doing the whole (up/down).
Every other listing presentation I go to when the sellers don’t like a comparable that is their response “those people had to sell,” so we should invalidate that comparable even thought it was 47 days on market and sold below asking price.
Its still relative, its just the numbers are much bigger now.
I think it ultimately comes down to land size and that’s just not there with these 1 garage 3 story townhouses with no green space. If you think about it, they are fundamentally a different product than SFH. The larger footprint townhouses in Saanich with private outdoor space is a much closer substitute.
“I think what rook has maybe those 3 story skinny townhouses. 20+ year old townhouses in Saanich are still going for over a million.”
Its a 3 story townhouse in View Royal.
Sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose. Its the same as its always been. You may come out very well adding value to the development site, at the same time you could very well end up losing your shirt.
I don’t see this happening in the core with the big townhouses. I think what rook has maybe those 3 story skinny townhouses. 20+ year old townhouses in Saanich are still going for over a million.
Rook, sadly I believe the rungs on the ladder will continue to get farther apart. I myself have never owned anything other than sfh
Sounds like Westshore. Sorry I don’t really follow the market out there….
Back in January 2023 a townhouse in my complex sold for 875$ (the townhouse is 2000sq/ft, quiet neighbourhood)
Just a few months ago, a similar sold for around 730K (owners were rushed to sell)
These are rough numbers but:
Back in Jan 2023 it would have cost us roughly 150K more if we sold at peak to move into a decent single family home in the neighbourhood. (regretting we didn’t do this at the time)
Now in 2025 it would cost us around 300-400K to move up into a decent single family home in this neighbourhood.
Rates were on the rise back in 2023. My thought is that the townhouses at that time were just in reach for a lot of families with rates rising making them desirable.
I’m wondering if anyone has any knowledge or constructive thoughts on this large increase in the gap in prices from townhouses/single family. Is there a strategy or lesson that can be learned in trying times it right making the jump from townhouse to single family? Thanks for your input.
Unless you are in trades or construction I don’t see why anyone would want to deal with and manage contractors working in your own house. LOL I think its actually a significant cause of divorces.
Maybe if they’re helpless, simple, or a government working type.
I mean post reno they are probably going to be looking at $1.5 minimum, I would advise not to do it unless its a location and lot they love. Paying up and buying turnkey is probably the right choice for most people all things considered .
Here is another comp: 1190 Stonington Pl sold for 1.425 in May 2025, all original 80’s 3 bed 2 bath rancher in sunnymead on 0.23 acres. 996 Owlwood sold for 1.427 in Aug 2024, renovated 80’s 3 bed and 2.5 bath rancher in neighboring broadmead (arguably a more expensive neighborhood) sitting on 0.34 acers. And for bobby k, the sunnymead one has a north facing backyard while the broadmead one has a south east facing backyard.
The assessment between the two houses differ by ~$180k with the broadmead one being more. So looks like even well kept non-updated products in desirable neighborhoods are fetching for good $ currently.
They are looking in the run down and needing update categories. Mostly, they have started looking. Which is different from before. They might think twice once I go over the renos I did and still have ongoing….lol
No deals to be had on anything nice in the core in decent neighborhoods, I just posted three comps of recent sales (not oak bay or Fairfield) vs 2-3 years ago and not a single one sold for less. Maybe on something run down and not updated.
Ya good luck , no deals to be had in oak bay and Fairfield . In fact I’m a little suprised at what price some sfh are coming on at . There appears to be zero stress in the market and no one seems to be in a rush to sell.
Amount under ask mentality is such a bad way of going about it, imo. Just because something sells substantially under ask doesn’t mean it is a good deal or lower than what it would have been the year before.
I cant say I am seeing much movement in Oak Bay and Fairfield in relation to the last three years in terms of final sales price.
Some aquantiances that felt they were locked out of South Oak Bay and East Fairfield are seeing the stale listings and starting to think about taking their shots. Price decreases, number of listings, and DOM have started to pique their curiosity and the ability to find a deal under ask instead of a bid up scenario.
Here is how real life works. Recently a seller phoned me to list their property in a condo building where there were multiple other listings in the same building. The other listing agents in the building are teaming up to run open houses together every weekend (I guess to draw a bigger crowd?) and when my listing hit the market the other listing agents asked me to run an open house on the same days/times and I declined. The other listings also had more media than my listing (I only ordered professional photos and floorplan other listings have 3d tours, videos, etc.). Also, of all the listings my cooperating commission offered to buyer’s agent was the lowest.
My listing sold and the remainder are still on the market. Why? Because I had a difficult conversation with the seller and explained to her if she wanted to sell in this market it would have to be at X price which was a lot lower than it was three years ago. She agreed and we listed the unit at the best price in the building and it sold. None of the other units on market have sold despite weekly open houses, more media, and a higher cooperating commission.
At the end of the day the buyer likely looked at all the units in the building and made an offer on the one where he saw the most value (which was my listing). It is pretty simple. That is how markets work, but for some reason people seem to think there is some sort of magic to it all and that is why real estate commissions are so high.
Lol exactly.
Development site market is completely dead. You list such a property and hope for one inquiry. If there is no interest in such properties how on earth am I suppose to use that to my advantage? This is real life, not la la fantasy land where you “manipulate numbers to your advantage.”
‘There is asking price and actual market value. I own a site close by that I would sell for less than $30k per door.
~~~~~~
Based on time adjustment, size of the site, achievable density in comparable neighbourhoods, you can really manipulate the number to your advantage. Listing agents knows the secret of controlling of flow of information, who gets the infor first, and when to pass on relevant info to the potential buyers’ agent(buyer).
valuation of development land requires a lots of information and comps – I assume you have tons of data already on your end to track ( access to MLS/notes/ and a pool of commercial realtors specialized in land) why not use that to your advantage?
In my opinion, VREB should ban re-lists unless you switch real estate agent. I find re-lists really annoying. Even more annoying is my own seller clients asking me to re-list their listing because they see everyone else doing it.
There is asking price and actual market value. I own a site close by that I would sell for less than $30k per door.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28497523/2645-sooke-rd-langford-walfred
the valuation of land has not gone down.
each unit (condo) is priced at 47.9k- not knowing the size of the unit.
a sign that the land price wont go down anytime soon.
Jesus, imagine your neighbor building that next to you…….
I don’t know what is the “typical” ratio vs high or low ratio, but here is the problem: When there is a lot of new listings which are really re-lists, then we cannot draw a conclusion based on that. To be meaningful, you have to consider a re-lists as an old listing rather than as a new listing.
SFH starts in greater Victoria continue to collapse, approaching net zero if tear downs are factored in.
May 2025 had a dismal total of 14 SFH starts in all of greater Victoria. That’s half of the already low number of 28 in 2024.
https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables/2025/monthly-housing-starts-tables-2025-05-en.xlsx?rev=9711edd2-9b09-44aa-8525-3fddd4f7615f&_gl=1*1ctbncp*_gcl_au*MzYyNzU3MTEzLjE3NDg0ODY2OTQ.*_ga*MTk5MjA5MjAwMy4xNzQ4NDg2ODk3*_ga_CY7T7RT5C4*czE3NTA0MzgyNzgkbzIkZzAkdDE3NTA0MzgyODQkajU0JGwwJGgw
Brand new quadplex listed -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28499445/3820-epsom-dr-saanich-cedar-hill
Do you have any comps to justify your bearish view? I would like to see some comps of recent sales going for less than similar properties from winter 2022 onwards.
How’s the Market doing?
High ratio of new listings to price decreases: This often suggests a confident seller environment. More homeowners are listing their properties, and relatively few are reducing prices—possibly indicating strong demand or optimism about achieving asking prices.
Low ratio (i.e., many price drops relative to new listings): This could signal a cooling market. Sellers may be adjusting expectations due to slower buyer activity, rising inventory, or affordability constraints. It might also reflect overpricing at the outset, followed by corrections.
While this ratio isn’t as commonly tracked as the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)—which measures market balance—it can still offer insight into pricing pressure and seller sentiment. A rising number of price reductions relative to new listings may hint at a shift toward a buyer’s market, where negotiation power tilts away from sellers.
For the Greater Victoria area there have been 361 new listings in the last seven days and 207 price reductions. With only one price increase.
Breaking it down between detached houses ann strata homes:
For detached homes there have been 184 new listing to 101 price decreases
For strata home there have been 152 new listings to 95 price decreases.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate/article/condo-sales-construction-crater-in-canadas-two-biggest-markets-data-show/
comps are rolling in now, here is another set in high quadra: 4204 Keewatin Pl. just sold for 1.311, last september 4212 Keewatin sold for 1.24 and has a newer suite, overall better house with a smaller lot.
Vicre, yep I would agree and if it’s a meat and potatoes investment i don’t think roi has changed much over the last couple years.
It’s just hard evidence, nothing subjective about it. I think it will take some time for it to go back to the spring 2022 peak but I am not sure how many “better deals” compared to winter 2022 can be had going forward.
I wouldn’t say busier street as the whole area is a development off of watkiss and 101 is a corner lot so that is likely busier, while the backyard for 45 faces north east it does back on to parkland instead of a house, LOL and are you sure 101’s backyard faces south west? You might want to get your compass out while you are on hold…. Land is about 20% larger for 45, also just by looking at the pictures I don’t think there’s 400sqft of extra finished space in 101, they are likely including unfinished space, finished space variance between the two if any is likely less than 200 sqft.
VicREanalyst, the address is actually 101 and that house is actually 400 sq feet bigger than 45, as well 101’s backyard faces south west vs 45 which faces north east (I wouldn’t ever consider a home in Victoria where the backyard faces north east), as well 45 is on a busier street and has 3 homes adjacent to it’s side yard and that’s just the difference I noticed quickly while I was on hold on the phone.
Vicre, I like what you’re saying . Funny thing is outside of condo’s this has been one shallow and short correction. I think the old adage of 7 up does no longer apply .
I question the sustainability of flat home prices in the face of rising inventory.
It’s possible, but not guaranteed. The “must-sell” group—whether due to financial strain, job relocation, divorce, or aging-related transitions—is often small at first, but grows steadily the longer prices remain stagnant and liquidity tight. A structural softening—especially in regions where investor-owned properties or aging demographics are concentrated.
It already came and gone. See the recent sale at 4696 scottswood pl for 1.178 vs the neighbor’s sale of 1.12 in Jan 2023 for a much better house/lot. In hindsight, looks like the bottom was winter 2022.
Here is a good comp for a recent sale vs last year on a entry level SFH in view royal: 1065 Stoneridge close sold for 1.065 couple days ago while 45 Stoneridge Dr (bit smaller house but bigger and better lot/house) sold for 990k in July 2024. This could be the new mortgage insurance rules pushing up the price to over $1M.
Too old to be functional and too expensive to replace, pretty much describes most of this country. Including our infrastructure.
The leaky condo crisis of the 1990’s definitely shook public confidence in the long-term viability of strata housing—especially in BC. Owners got saddled with huge unexpected costs, insurers grew skittish, and suddenly condos weren’t the golden ticket they’d seemed in the ’80s. Requiring large replacement reserves may have been prudent in theory, but it also inadvertently made housing even less accessible to average buyers. A classic example of policy aimed at risk mitigation fueling affordability challenges down the line.
Many of these complexes were designed with 40- to 50-year lifespans in mind, not the kind of long-term sustainability we expect today. Yet, due to outdated zoning, fragmented ownership, and high land values, we keep patching them up—hoping to avoid the political and logistical headaches of redevelopment. It’s a kind of urban purgatory: too old to be truly functional, but too expensive to replace.
Vicvan, yikes then we have 7 mores years of a dismal economy where nobody made any real money. They called the 90’s the lost decade
I don’t see this as a short and sharp correction situation as we had in 2008-2009. More like years of stagnation continuing much like the late 1990s in BC.
When I sold my property in Ladysmith, the transaction was completed on a Zoom call, sent a void cheque by text and the funds were deposited directly into my account by the lawyer. If a property is sold in the U.S. and the funds directly deposited to a Canadian bank, would that avoid the funds transfer tax? Doesn’t matter to me, I don’t own any U.S. property.
Coops, leaseholds, tenements, tiny (aka mobile) homes, and modular homes are nothing new.
Groot, this already happens in Whistler were years ago. Long time residence were allowed to buy townhomes at greatly reduce cost, but they’re upside was also capped to some formula.
ever get tired of being wrong over and over again?
Now that you read all of that. How about something completly different.
One that’s gaining traction among housing innovators and policymakers alike. A parallel housing system: one that’s decoupled from speculative market forces, both in how it’s built and how it’s owned. That’s not just realistic—it’s already starting to happen in pockets around the world.
Emerging models:
– Alternative ownership structures: Community land trusts, limited-equity co-ops, and shared equity models are designed to keep housing permanently affordable by separating land value from building value or capping resale prices. These homes don’t compete with market-rate stock—they complement it.
–
Non-market housing production: Modular and prefab construction, especially when paired with public or nonprofit land, can create a new stream of housing that’s cost-controlled from the ground up. New Brunswick’s investment in modular “Lego-style” homes is a great example of this in action.
Tenure innovation: Some jurisdictions are exploring hybrid models—like lease-to-own or long-term rental with equity participation—that offer stability and wealth-building without feeding speculative demand.
Design differentiation: Purpose-built rental, co-housing, and micro-units often serve different demographics and needs than traditional detached homes, reducing direct competition and price pressure.
Lowering costs for developers doesn’t automatically translate into lower market prices. The housing market is shaped by a complex dance between supply, demand, speculation, and policy. That said, there have been some signs of progress in certain contexts:
Filtering effects: According to a 2025 CMHC report, it can take up to 20 years for new market-rate housing to “filter down” and become more affordable to middle- and lower-income households. So while new supply doesn’t immediately lower prices, it can help over time—especially if built at scale.
Market cooling due to external shocks: In 2025, Canada’s housing market saw price declines in cities like Toronto and Vancouver, partly due to economic uncertainty and trade tensions. A Global News report noted that buyer pullback and rising inventory led to falling prices in several regions, giving buyers more leverage.
Policy-driven slowdowns: Some provinces have introduced taxes on vacant homes, foreign buyers, or short-term rentals, which can reduce speculative demand and ease price pressure—though the effects vary by region.
Productivity and supply constraints: A Scotiabank analysis found that if Canada had avoided recent supply bottlenecks and population surges, average home prices could have been over $100,000 lower. This underscores how improving productivity and reducing red tape could help moderate prices in the future.
So while we haven’t seen a widespread, sustained drop in market prices, there are pockets of progress—and growing recognition that affordability won’t improve without tackling both supply and demand dynamics. The goal is to stabilize housing markets through zoning reform, public land use, and construction innovation do represent a kind of intentional reshaping of the traditional real estate cycle. The classic boom-bust pattern—driven by speculation, credit cycles, and supply lags—has historically led to painful corrections and affordability crises. The goal isn’t to eliminate the cycle, but to soften its extremes. By increasing supply elasticity, reducing speculative demand, and improving regulatory responsiveness, cities aim to avoid the wild swings that leave renters priced out in booms and homeowners underwater in busts.
.>>>>>>…. The House version contains a 3.5% remittance tax on fund transfers across the border. Presumably, that would include the funds you receive on the sale of your vacation property in Arizona or Florida
As bad as a one-time remittance tax of 3.5% on sale of Arizona vacation property would be, remember that BC charges many American (and foreigners) with spec-area vacation properties 3% PER YEAR (starting in 2026). Can you justify being in favour of the BC tax while calling the US tax “idiotic”?
Nice to have rentals . But if the feds are serious about building all these houses they better have a way to juice the condo market or new development will be crickets
https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/New-Homes-Registry-Report-May-2025.pdf
Looks like we might have the first year ever where we end up with more purpose-built rental starts than strata.
Here’s a good correction. Scrap metal has fallen from $300 a ton to $40 a ton since the Trump tariffs.
The exact opposite of that is happening lol. Lots more fraud and speculators in the bigger markets causing volatility. The average Victoria buyer has no idea they can even get fake T4s.
If you own real estate in the United States, you might want to be aware of another outburst of stupidity contained in the GOP’s Big Beautiful Bowel Movement. The House version contains a 3.5% remittance tax on fund transfers across the border. Presumably, that would include the funds you receive on the sale of your vacation property in Arizona or Florida, and then attempt to transfer back to Canada. Whether this or the equally idiotic Section 899 make it into the Senate version of the bill remains to be seen, assuming anyone in Congress still reads this shit before voting.
https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/06/another-surprise-in-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-excise-tax
I’m not as optimistic as you are, Patrick. I have doubts that Victoria’s market correction is truly over. The city has been remarkably fortunate in defying national trends in unemployment and vacancy rates—but that might have more to do with its smaller size than any underlying strength.
As a relatively small community compared to Vancouver, Toronto, and the Fraser Valley, Victoria’s market is more susceptible to volatility. Smaller data sets tend to show greater variability because there’s less data to smooth out anomalies.
Victoria’s market resilience might not be as bulletproof as it appears on the surface.
In the last year, Microsoft went from a peak price of $468 and “corrected” down around 20%. Today it’s back up to $479, so it didn’t correct much for me. I would call that a fluctuation in that short a time. A stock like BCE has corrected from the low70’s down to low 30’s over the last few years. That’s a correction.
> While your debating a total rate of return of 0.5% for the Victoria housing market over that 2 year time period the S&P500 and TSX are up aprox. 50% and 33%.
Oh, and of course for the stock markets you’re talking about nominal (not real) prices, which makes my point. Why do you want to use real prices for houses, and nominal prices for stocks?
While your debating a total rate of return of 0.5% for the Victoria housing market over that 2 year time period the S&P500 and TSX are up aprox. 50% and 33%.
Joe, why don’t u like teranet
Teranet is your source? Also, what is that post, a ChatGPT screenshot? I truly laughed out loud. My turn:
>>…, Negative returns or price growth slower than inflation is a correction. This is a correction.
CPI grew 4.5% from May 2023 to today. Teranet Victoria is up 5% during that period. Correction ended May 2023, even using your definition.
BTW, corrections are typically measured using nominal prices.
The typical definition of a housing correction has it ending when prices stop falling, and are either stable or rising. For Victoria, using teranet index, that would have the correction ending May 2023. The HHV article seems to be using a correction lasting until we reach the previous high, which isn’t typical use of the term.
I don’t think investors are “dumping” their investment properties.
For many small-scale investors, the decision to sell isn’t about panic—it’s about pragmatism. There seem to be a tendency for investors to sell rather than re-rent a property as a renter leaves along with an increase in families choosing to sell inherited properties rather than retain them in the family or rent them. Selling at that point becomes a rational, if reluctant, choice.
That slow exit could actually help stabilize prices rather than crash them, by preventing sudden supply shocks.
Just nice to c house prices going up during a correction. That’s my kinda correction lol
A housing market correction occurs when home prices drop slightly. There is no formal threshold that determines a correction, but a drop of 10% or less is commonly used.
The use of the term “correction” indicates that prices have in some way become unsustainable, so the market is correcting itself to better fit with affordability, demand and supply.
The current correction is different than past corrections as it is deeply-rooted in long-term structural affordablitiy issues such a undersupply of housing and a mis-match between wages and housing costs.. This has made homes persistently unaffordable for average people -regadless of short-term economic cycles.
Even if interest rates drop, affordability may not improve much unless structural barriers are removed. While some affordabliity reforms are immediate, such as the GST removal, the more ambitious plans to tackle affordablity will take a long time to bear any fruit.
Saying that we are half way through a correction is much the same as someone asking if they are half way through a road trip. It depends on where you started from and where you want to go.
Negative returns or price growth slower than inflation is a correction. This is a correction.
..>> I wouldn’t call the last few years of stagnant real estate prices a “correction”.
Agreed.
The “correction” ended in May 2023. Teranet price index for Victoria bottomed in May 2023 at 278. And two years later it is up 5% to 291.
That’s easily seen in Teranet chart…
I wouldn’t call the last few years of stagnant real estate prices a “correction”. More like a return to sanity or stabilization of an out of control market. Yes, condos are correcting after a buying frenzy caused by the AirBnB craze as “investors” are dumping their hotel rooms. There are still at least a dozen buyers for a good Sfd in a good area. Location is the number one priority for buyers. People will pay a premium for a clean, safe neighborhood. That’s what they worked hard to attain.
I take your point, Marko. It seems easier to turn a profit on 1-bedrooms. Of course, that may be in the past. They seem to be particular hard to sell once investors leave the market. I.e., now. Look at Toronto for the most extreme example of this.
In terms of Joffre Street, price per square foot usually decreases as the square footage increases. There are 6 units for sale in the 6-plex for $800,000 each. I assume they’ll sell around that price, which generates ~$5mm overall. The lot they’re built on doesn’t look huge, so if the developer can’t turn a profit on that, I really have to scratch my head.
I’ve talked a lot of clients out of purchasing missing middle for a number of reasons such as too many stairs and no elevator (especially top floor), no matter what you do there is going to be a ton of noise transmission especially with all the staircases running through the building, surface parking, you have to be involved in the strata somewhat, etc. For the same price you can buy in a quality concrete building which is my personal preference.
More of what I am getting at is there is a narrative that builders/developers aren’t building three bedroom units and we have too many one bedrooms being built. What I posted is $611 per square foot which is quite attractive. In that location you would easily sell one bedroom units for $700 a foot.
The problem with three bedroom condos is you can buy a brand new townhome in Langford for the same amount and most buyers will go Langford townhome vs core three bed missing middle unit (on the lower end, obviously missing middle in Fairfield/Oak Bay will be a different story).
My point is that I don’t think the narrative of not enough three beds are being built is completely true as when they are built they are selling substantially less per square foot than 2 beds and 1 beds.
They started at $1,050,000 and are now reduced to $799,999, so I’m not sure the initial price was “the price of admission”
I can see those do well as rentals, but as a purchase I just can’t see it appealing to many people unless it’s luxury and in a desirable location.
I am biased but man these 4 plexes and 6 plexes do not appeal to me at all. I need secured covered parking lol!
Not seeing the problem, if someone wants new that’s the price of admission. If folks turn they’re noses up at missing middle prices we will just higher and higher prices for used and not much will get built if developers can’t unload them
The initial prices were crazy. $1,000,000+ for a glorified apartment in a six-plex with no outdoor space was completely out of touch, especially in relation to comparables.
One location is a quiet walk to Saxe Point Park and amenities on foot, the other is on a highway.
30 years old requiring renos versus brand new? With that type of logic you can find houses under 800k in the core…why share any walls at all or even deal with a strata at all.
New missing middle is an alternative to newer condo buildings.
or come up with another 40k for this: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28446486/76-st-giles-st-view-royal-hospital
799k for a glorified 1264sqft hallway and share a bunch of walls. Don’t see the value proposition there for a family, better off buying something like this and spend 80k on countertops for the kitchen and washrooms…. https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28085483/12-922-arm-st-esquimalt-kinsmen-park?view=imagelist