I keep hearing in the media that too many one bedrooms are being built….developer builds large three bed family friendly units on a quiet street and multiple price adjustments already -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28351466/202-483-south-joffre-st-esquimalt-saxe-point

$611 per square foot is a reasonable price imo.

I have been at it for alittle over 40 years and would like to go for another 20. Lol. I would not have chosen a different path in life , all I ever wanted to do is build

Wow, ok, how long have you been in business?

“Sales in Canada rose for the first time in 6 months . I didn’t delve into too deeply , I just like a good headline”

Thursty, you may not be aware of seasonality but real estate sales increase in the spring after winter each year, lol. Thursty, I also have heard recently from a friend looking to sell his house that the market has picked up, if you are over leveraged I would take advantage of this window to deleverage.

I didn’t delve into too deeply , I just like a good headline

lol

Wasn’t that down on the annual and only up month to month which was just the seasonal movement?

Not necessarily—real estate prices can behave quite differently depending on the type of turmoil and the region affected.

During global crises like wars, pandemics, or economic recessions, some markets see prices fall due to uncertainty, reduced consumer confidence, and tighter lending conditions. For example, in Canada, recent tariff-related tensions with the U.S. caused home sales to drop and prices to decline by 3.7% year-over-year as of March 2025.

So Frank, let’s not hedge our bets on mushroom clouds for market gains!

What would you advise if property values continue to fall 5-7% a year for the next 2-3 years?

In the last 36 the highest drop was 5.18% and then next one was 3% and then 2%. We’ve been flat for a number of years now so I would think a flat period then 5-7% drop for 2 or 3 consecutive years is very low.

What would you advise if property values continue to fall 5-7% a year for the next 2-3 years?

Are you a buyer or a seller?

What would you advise if property values continue to fall 5-7% a year for the next 2-3 years?

Is this a rhetorical question?

The Canadian dollar has rocketed to 74 cents, call it The Carney Effect , the economy looks good for take off

A recent sale closed at $70,000 below comparable listings, which is quite significant. This could prompt some sellers to reevaluate their pricing expectations, though others may dismiss it as an outlier and carry on unchanged.

Despite the considerable inventory of downtown condos currently available, both rents and prices seem relatively stable. Sales volume, however, is down by 40–50% compared to the period when investors dominated the market. This suggests we’re now seeing a more locally-driven market, with buyers purchasing to live in the units rather than as investment properties.

In many cases, prospective buyers can put 20% down and own a condo for a monthly cost similar to—or even less than—what they would pay in rent.

I believe more renters should explore this path. Even if property values remain flat in the short term, the benefits of mortgage paydown and long-term equity still make ownership an attractive option.

Ouch, when were the comps?

My bad, 70k below comparable listings, not sales. In-line with recent sales, maybe 1 or 2% lower.

You know things are picking up when a place at One Bear Mountain sells.

Any particular product driving the sales?

Seems to be well balanced. Condos are picking up a tad I think. I had a couple of condo sales last week including one downtown (70k below two comparables in the building) and accepted offers on four listed right now (and 5th one with a buyer).

Insurance for condo buildings seems to have stabilized a bit. The building I live in our budget for the year came in under and we only increased strata fees 3.7% (the entire increase going into contingency).

I could see condos stabilizing in the next 6 to 12 months (not to be confused with upward price pressure, still need to be aggressively priced to sell).

I don’t know about you, but I simply could not survive without my helipad. How else would I get to my yacht.

Looks like we will easily clear 700 sales and will be the highest sales total for June in the last four years.

Any particular product driving the sales?

Just looked it up, after starting at $29 million, it finally sold for $9.5 million after 12 years on the market. The new owner, a fan, is having trouble renting it for $230,000 a month. Someone should tell them that you couldn’t rent a $950,000 house for $23,000 a month either.

Trophy homes—for lack of a better term—occupy that rarefied space at the very top of the luxury real estate market. 

A trophy home is a luxury property that stands out for its exceptional features, location, architecture, or historical significance—essentially, it’s the real estate equivalent of a status symbol. These homes often come with eye-watering price tags and are designed to impress, not just to live in. They are very much like works of art. Each home has a one-of-a-kind magnificence, often with a compelling provenance; and each offers resplendent amenities, finishes, fixtures, and detail, providing utmost comfort, privacy, and security. 

My top four list of homes on Vancouver Island

https://youtu.be/HEeENyhamG0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpC6S3Wgh4M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGsSWKfan9w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gLFgVnnDPQ

Vicre, I agree , a 10 mil house can take a few years to sell, but folks who live in those homes aren’t hurting so I’m sure it would matter much

Says the guy who most likely lives in parents basement.

Lmao ok trader

The island has a lot of rich folk, we can even count at least 1 billionaire

“I call b.s., every single time someone on this forum says some shit about who does what and who’s who in town they are talking out of their ass.”

How about the opinions expressed by those with “insider contacts”? Any more credible?

Groot, maybe something more cozy lol

Max- Where were you? Is it potato harvesting season already?

Groot, I’m interested, where are these properties. It has to be in O.B though as i need to be in walking distance to the Penny and VGC

Fears of a recession in Canada are rising, with more economists now saying that the country may already be entering one. TD Bank’s (TSE:TD) chief economist, Beata Caranci, says that President Trump’s tariff war has hurt business and consumer confidence in both the U.S. and Canada. But in Canada, the drop in sentiment is worse than what was seen during the pandemic. Indeed, over 20% of Canadians are worried about losing their jobs, and the CFIB barometer shows a steep drop in business confidence. However, Caranci notes that unlike the U.S., where the economy is still holding up despite low sentiment, Canada is seeing a strong link between fear and actual economic weakness.

In just two months, Canadian companies have cut 75,000 jobs, with half of those coming from manufacturing. Even worse, TD expects another 100,000 jobs could be lost by the third quarter, which would push the unemployment rate to 7.2%, or 1% higher than the bank’s earlier forecast. TD has also cut its GDP forecast and now predicts that the economy will shrink in the second and third quarters of this year. Other economists agree, with a Bloomberg survey showing an expected 1% annualized GDP decline in Q2 and 0.1% in Q3.

Poverty Porn

I have been with my girl since I was 17…That’s 35 years now…I don’t need porn.

Hi Max. Thats a human being, just like you. In fact, probably a lot more compassionate than you.

Canada’s level of manufacturing is fine with me, as we are close to most other developed countries. The only real outliers are China and Vietnam, growing in manufacturing, but with low salaries and sweatshops. No thanks.

Measured by % of workforce in manufacturing, Canada (9%) is about the same as USA (10%), UK(9%), and more than Australia (7%).
Moreover, this number for Canada (9%) has been stable, down only 1% from 15 years ago. If we became a manufacturing “powerhouse” like Japan, South Korea or Mexico, we’d only raise the % workforce to 15% instead of the 9% we have now.

My hot take is that it probably wouldn’t be feasible to establish a globally competitive shipbuilding industry here.

You really can’t establish any kind of globally competitive manufacturing in a place like BC where the economy is now largely driven by capital inflows rather than by making things to sell elsewhere.

Look back decades and things were different. They used to make airplanes in Richmond, telephone equipment in Burnaby, and trucks in Kelowna, among other things.

Canada’s macroeconomic outlook: Shifting tides as tariff threats de-escalate

-Canada’s economic outlook appears less dire than previously feared despite earlier domestic challenges, and with 86% of Canadian exports to the U.S. remaining duty-free under CUSMA.

-Consumer confidence surveys hit record lows in March, but consumer spending has remained resilient, and other “non-traditional” data on job postings have shown signs of stabilization amid unemployment concerns.

-We no longer expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further after already implementing more easing than global peers. Still, there is room for additional cuts should the economy falter more than expected.

-Canada has fiscal capacity to buffer against economic shocks compared to global peers with both provincial and federal governments signalling a willingness to support trade-impacted sectors as needed.

-Canada’s provinces see a divided economic outlook: resource-rich regions lead growth, while manufacturing-heavy areas are more exposed to trade tensions.

Source: RBC Economics

As I noted Yugoslavia was a ship building powerhouse for decades and now can no longer compete on the global market, times change.

My hot take is that it probably wouldn’t be feasible to establish a globally competitive shipbuilding industry here. I was just objecting to the idea that we don’t have the skills or expertise to build ferries, and so the question is do the benefits of building them here outweigh the costs. If the answer is no, build them elsewhere.

Looks like this week is going to be strongest week of the year in terms of sales.

Frank, I would agree that Canada is useless dithers

I didn’t vote Liberal, but so far Carney seems to be moving in the right direction, and possibly this whole Trump thing could be the kick in the butt we needed & then Carney trying to actually move the needle on things. So far I’m reasonably encouraged by what I’m seeing shaking us out of our doldrums. I realize execution is a whole other thing. Now if we could just get Eby to come on board, that would also help. But what makes this all work (or not) in my view is being realistic and building on our strengths, rather than flights of fancy. I don’t think another ferry fiasco is the way to do that.

It’s not like B.C. Ferries didn’t know that they would eventually need new ferries. They should have planned years in advance to get in the queue at the ship builders.

Lmao what? Get in que? Why would a ship yard put someone in que without a binding contract? Go ask your roofer to put you in que for a certain year without any commitment and see how that works out.

We may have lacked the skills and expertise to build fast ferries, but pretty much every major conventional ferry in the fleet built prior to then, was built in BC…including the ancient Queen of New Westminster which is still operating. Seaspan is also building a bunch of vessels for the feds, so it’s not like there isn’t a shipbuilding industry here already.

As I noted Yugoslavia was a ship building powerhouse for decades and now can no longer compete on the global market, times change.

Is Seaspan actually building anything where they are competing on the global market? (Aka aside from vessels for the feds).

Countries with a population that lacks expertise are known as welfare states.

This is absolute nonsense. According to Google, a welfare state is a “political system where the government takes responsibility for the social and economic well-being of its citizens, often through various programs and services. This includes things like healthcare, education, unemployment benefits, and social assistance.”

Would obviously only work for a fairly savvy buyer who is familiar with the buying process and won’t need to ask a lot of questions.

A savvy buyer would just get the seller’s agent to write the offer for them and get them to negotiate the price down with the seller via taking less commission as there is no split anymore. The offer is almost entirely template with one section for customization for conditions, they can take give it to their lawyer for review if they have any doubts.

I agree that buyer cashback is much trickier to execute than selling commission. The problem I see for just negotiating a straight % cashback is that it doesn’t adjust for buyers that want to go to 15 listings and only offer on one because there was something wrong with the other 14 that were likely apparent without having to even see the place. I guess you could try and write an agreement up where the % cashback would go down after so many showings or offers but then that would incentivize the buyer to find a new agent if it didn’t work out in the first few showings.

I think if I were trying to buy right now I would start negotiations at something like 90% cashback, $300/showing, $100/offer, $80/hr for any communication. Money is due regardless of whether a sale is completed. It would take all the risk off the agent while probably still being enough to motivate a newer agent. Would obviously only work for a fairly savvy buyer who is familiar with the buying process and won’t need to ask a lot of questions.

Countries with a population that lacks expertise are known as welfare states. I 100% agree with everything you’re saying, and it’s sad this country is so useless. We can’t all sell real estate, we have to produce. I doubt Canada will exist 100 years from now.

What better use of the steel that the U.S. doesn’t want than build ships with it.

B.C. Ferries orders 4 new ferries, made in China. This country truly is useless.

I’ve already listed a number of reasons why sellers may opt for this overpriced service.

I am sure there are reason people use mutual funds instead of VFV.TO, VDY.TO, etc.

At some point the consumer has to take some accountability. That’s like saying mutual funds are a ripoff without watching a few YT videos and readding a few Reddit threads and coming to a logical conclusion that pretty much nothing in terms of mutual funds can statistically touch VFV.TO over time.

Can you get a buyer get a lower price if there isn’t a buyer’s agent?

It can be true, but it really depends on the situation.

When a buyer doesn’t use a real estate agent, the seller might be more open to negotiating a lower price—especially if they’re not paying commission to a buyer’s agent. So if there’s no buyer’s agent, the seller might be willing to pass some of that savings on to the buyer.

BUT – They don’t have to pass on the savings.

The market value of a property—what a willing buyer would pay and a willing seller would accept—is generally independent of whether a real estate agent is involved. However, the perceived value or final sale price can vary depending on how the property is marketed and negotiated. Real estate agents often bring expertise in pricing strategy, staging, and exposure, which can help a seller attract more buyers and potentially get a higher price. On the flip side, sellers who go the “For Sale By Owner” (FSBO) route might price more aggressively to attract buyers and save on commission fees, which could result in a lower sale price—but not necessarily a lower market value.

But here’s the catch: market value isn’t a fixed number—it’s an estimate. When an agent claims they got “over market value,” it’s often more of a marketing phrase than a verifiable fact.

You are repeating my exact point I am bringing up….consumers really like the concept of the agent taking on all the risk without guaranteed compensation to the agent (no cost to the seller). I mean, if the risk to the real estate agent is so low why doesn’t the seller take on the risk and save 50%? Just curious?

I’m not disagreeing that sellers prefer that arrangement. What I’m saying is the price paid for it is unreasonable. I’ve already listed a number of reasons why sellers may opt for this overpriced service. Namely, the system is designed to thwart those pursuing alternative options and to make it as difficult as possible to sell your home using them. I’m sure there are many other reasons.

>.>.< I mean, if the risk to the real estate agent is so low why doesn’t the seller take on the risk and save 50%? Just curious?

They likely assume the selling agent will be less motivated to sell if they’ve already been paid.

For example, what if the selling agent had two almost identical listings. One (# 1) he’s been paid for already, and another (# 2) he only gets paid when it sells. People assume that he will be incentivized to sell # 2 more than # 1.

If it’s still baked into the price, then it is no different than our system and unsurprising that the same inflated commissions are taking hold in Croatia.

Keep in mind 30 years real estate agents didn’t even exist in Croatia. My conclusion is buyers/sellers to attribute some value in having middle people handle/assist them in a transaction despite all the advancements in technology.

I am a licensed real estate agent in Croatia where there are essentially no buyer’s agents and use of real estate agents is rapidly growing oddly enough. Most listing agents charge 3% to the seller and 3% to the buyer so 6% total.

If it’s still baked into the price, then it is no different than our system and unsurprising that the same inflated commissions are taking hold in Croatia.

I will guarantee you if even 25% of sellers go list their homes via a mere listing then the commission structure for full service realtors will change pretty quickly.

I actually think as low as 10% would do the trick….if full service agents know a lot of sellers were considering the mere posting route they would sharpen their pencils to shrink the gap between mere posting and full service fees.

Oddly enough having done hundreds of mere postings in my career people that I helped sell with a mere posting successfully sell will the vast majority of the time switch to full service when it comes to selling their next property. I think people do value some support for a competent real estate agent.

In terms of real estate, many don’t want to deal with industry tactics designed to steer them away from lower commission options and to cause the process to be frustrating. Many more struggle with the lack of clarity as to what lower commission options include. I know almost no one who is happy with realtor commissions or think they are justified. People “accepting” the current system doesn’t make it a good system or indicate any level of satisfaction.

If you offered sellers two options with the EXACT same service.

Option 1: X amount paid upon successful sale.

Option 2: X amount at a 50% discount paid upfront.

90% of sellers will opt for option 1. The consumer thinks real estate fees are ridiculous, fair enough; however, the consumer also really likes the concept of the real estate agent taking all the risk in terms of expenses and time invested with no guarantees of any compensation whatsoever.

A prospective purchaser has been conditioned into believing that he/she/they are getting the services of a selling agent for “free”. Who wouldn’t like such a deal!!!

It’s a clever marketing strategy, isn’t it? The idea of getting something “for free” is always enticing, and it’s easy to overlook the fact that, in many cases, the cost is simply embedded elsewhere—often in the final purchase price. Some real estate models position the seller as the one paying the commission, which makes it feel like the buyer is benefiting without any direct cost. But of course, those fees are part of the transaction, affecting pricing and negotiations.

But what would happen if the buyer had to pay out of their pocket for the service of a selling agent?

That would shake things up quite a bit! If the buyer had to pay the selling agent directly, they’d likely scrutinize the value of the service more closely. They might negotiate harder on fees, demand more transparency, or even opt to go it alone without an agent. The psychological shift is important too—when something is perceived as “free,” people tend to be less critical. But the moment there’s an out-of-pocket expense, suddenly every detail matters.

Real estate transactions are already complicated, but adding a direct financial obligation to the buyer-agent relationship could expose cracks in the system. When prices fall, buyers who feel they’ve overpaid may look for someone to blame. If they’ve directly paid an agent, their scrutiny could intensify, leading to more lawsuits or formal complaints. The legal landscape might shift too, with regulations tightening to prevent coercive tactics and misrepresentation.

If buyers had to treat agents like any other professional service—paying fees upfront or negotiating contracts—it could change the dynamic entirely. More transparency, perhaps, but also more pressure on agents to justify their role.

Sorry thursty for the wrong link, heading to the golf course I will correct later

So, it’s not that one group works “better” universally—it’s about aligning the compensation model with the nature of the work and the personality of the worker.

My industry pays a salary similar in line with other “professionals” but bonuses can be multiple times the salary depending on position and is determined by firm/group/individual performance on both a short term and long term bases.

Commission-based pay can be a powerful motivator. Since earnings are directly tied to performance, people often push harder to close deals, especially in sales-driven roles like real estate or tech. It can attract highly driven individuals who thrive on competition and the potential for high rewards.

On the flip side, salaried employees tend to offer more consistency and long-term focus. They’re often better suited for roles that require deep expertise, relationship-building, or complex problem-solving—where results aren’t immediate or easily measured.

So, it’s not that one group works “better” universally—it’s about aligning the compensation model with the nature of the work and the personality of the worker.

I would opine that listing agents work best under a commission while buyers agents would work better under a salary. The buyer should hire an agent and pay them for any work done on their behalf.

Leading indicators are flashing red for recession in Canada

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/leading-indicators-are-flashing-red-for-recession-in-canada/

Greed much? A commissioned salesperson wants to get paid anyway if he doesn’t make a sale. He wants to have it both ways. Just when you think there’s nothing worse they could come up with, they come up with something like this.

I don’t see what the problem is? My up front payment business is slowly growing I think (small sample size). Last year I had two sellers pay me up front and this year I am already at two and we aren’t half way through the year. I am offering 30 to 50% discount depending on the situation for up front payment and obviously it doesn’t work for the majority of sellers but those who are serious about selling and understand that a successful sale is a function of the marketplace and price are happy to take the discount. So far every up front payment property has sold (one currently has an accepted offer with conditions off tomorrow).

It kind of makes sense that the list to sales ratio is going to be way higher on the up front payment as sellers are serious about selling.

.>.>.> “re: A single flight quote might not be the enough to be a barometer of the economy.”
–It’s like that all summer and into the fall, so either the airlines have found a new way to make money flyng people accross Canada for $100 or the airlines greatly overestimated demand as the new normal is to fly with no empty seats and the flights I was looking at were only half full at best with less than 6 weeks until flight dates.

———====

Yes, there’s an airline ticket price war, at least for flights within Canada. There’s overcapacity with cancelled us bound flights and more competition (porter airlines).
I don’t see that as a leading economic indicator though. There is a Canada composite leading index, maintained by OECD and Statistics Canada. It hasn’t shown any downturn, and has been rising steadily, up 2% YOY including up to May 31, 2025. https://ycharts.com/indicators/composite_leading_indicator_canada?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Here’s what it measures instead of airline ticket prices. All looks well to me…

If realtors want assurances for their time spent, then they shouldn’t get the big upside for a sale with a large commission. This is the same tradeoff contractors make vs salaried employees. You often get more per hour on contract vs salary, but you don’t get some of the guarantees and benefits that full timers do.

Why don’t we set commission thresholds for realtors? You get a big commission if you sell over market or asking price, a normal commission if at asking price, and a small one if below asking/market price. The point being, this aligns the incentives well and disincentives realtors from just trying to make a transaction happen. Anyone can sell their home for a low price, but getting a good price for it is tough. Let’s make those incentives align.

My friend, a realtor, will offer a house clean out as part of his service. That involves getting a bin and hiring people to help haul out the crap. That costs him money. He does try to sell some of the stuff to recoup some of it. He’s been burned on a few occasions and ended up out of pocket..

From what I understand, realtors must change the combinations of the lock boxes every day. If they have several listings located miles apart, that’s a lot of time wasted. Is that true in B.C.? I assume that only applies to vacant properties.

Are you sure you are familiar with real estate?

They do not want to waste their time trying to flog houses that are not priced correctly, or where little effort has been made to make them presentable and will not consider dropping their price expectations.

Interesting anecdote. I say that if realtors are only taking sure things, then they have even less justification for their commissions. At least part of the unreasonable size of commissions has been justified by realtors on the basis that their success rate is less than 100%, and that they therefore do some work uncompensated.

Just came across a clip where a real estate agent in Vancouver states that he hesitates to take listings from clients who are not willing to sign an agreement that he gets paid anyway for his investment of time and costs. (Creating a video, floor plans, etc)
He mentions that other agents are leaning towards the same idea.
They do not want to waste their time trying to flog houses that are not priced correctly, or where little effort has been made to make them presentable and will not consider dropping their price expectations.
I am a bit surprised but I also understand to a certain extent.
Sounds like reality is starting to bite.
Having said that, I also hear the opposite interpretation for where things are going.
I think there are dark clouds coming in and not just for real estate but for government workers etc.
Taxes will have to rise to cover things like the 30 + billion dollar “American” fighter jets (Used to be 19 billion) .
Plus we are getting new submarines and a whole bunch of other senseless war machines as our leaders privately invest heavily in their own stocks related to the military industrial complex.

Since BC gov have been on a hiring spree at senior levels and for consultants that were formally employed with the federal NDP now unemployed MPs and former staff (loss of party status eliminated parliamentary staff) they have to find the money somewhere to pay them….

Do you have a source for that?

I wish I had access in the 1980’s to data on the stock markets that exists today. I felt I was investing blind with advice and limited information from a stock broker. The monthly report you received were useless. Every stock they reviewed was going up in value in the future. Also being able to dump a stock without paying a huge commission would have been an advantage. The information just wasn’t there like it is today.

I heard a rumor that VIHA is laying off a bunch of people in the middle layers. Is there any truth to this?

I’ve heard they are looking at possibly consolidating Fraser and Coastal Health as health care is definitely in the cross hairs. On a related note I believe treasury board should be finishing the reviews of the DOGE plans submitted by the various ministries by the end of this month so I think there will be layoffs as result of that later on. Timing is interesting given the negotiations with the union.

I heard a rumor that VIHA is laying off a bunch of people in the middle layers. Is there any truth to this?

Absolutely Frank, there is a lot more data available today than when you were in your prime buying age. But there were still visible clues that you relied on. Clues such as “For Sale” signs” peppering the neighborhood or talk at the office or with friends.

AI is changing things up in a hurry these days. Someone interested in real estate were limited by their level of education and experience in the past. Today they don’t need to know how to calculate the math they just need to know the question to ask.

I might also add that programs such as Copilot and Chatgpt are replacing online blog platforms. At one time you may have gone on to a blog to ask a question. And of course you would get the arsehole responses but once in awhile there was a good repsonse. Don’t have to go to the blogs anymore. Just ask AI and bypass the haters.

In my own experience, I can’t say that data has played a role in when I would purchase real estate. It basically wasn’t available when I was in buying mode. Plus most of my purchases occurred when the right opportunity presented itself. However, I have found the information available here has value when determining when to sell.

those are solid numbers , I wonder if those numbers will show up in the data hmm

Niche product though, I also see some “deals” come through for more common SFH products.

Vicre, those are solid numbers , I wonder if those numbers will show up in the data hmm

Does anyone have a recommendation for a service that will haul away yard waste?

FB market place

Leo,
Great article, and thanks for sharing that comprehensive data.

Thanks, Leo. You do excellent and grossly underappreciated work.

Leo, any uptick in buyers from Vancouver lately? In other words, is Jason Binab busier than usual?