April: Market roughly stable on cool side of balanced
Despite the timing of Easter this year meaning one less business day this April, sales came in not too much lower than a year ago. At 642 sales, we are down 5% from last April’s 679, though in terms of sales per business day we are only down 1%. When you look at the recent trend though, it means all the progress on sales activity we made in the fall is definitely gone.
And in terms of total sales, a similar picture, though not a significant change from March.
New listings are still healthy, though not quite at record levels for this time of year.
The interesting thing is that despite a fairly sluggish and slowly cooling market, median and average prices for detached properties are quite strong. Due to more high end sales the average detached price in April at $1.396M is the highest we’ve seen in 3 years, and median prices are also trending higher this year (note 3 month rolling average).
No clear trend in the Teranet index, but we don’t have April data for that yet, while the MLS HPI for detached properties has also been rising.
However it may not be that values are actually rising, but an increase through some combination of changes in sales mix (a weaker lower end) and seasonality (average condition of properties likely better in spring). However it’s something to keep an eye on. Relative to assessment, there’s no clear trend, with little change in what properties are selling for in relation to their assessed value.
Stable sales and strong new listings means that inventory is continuing to grow, both on an absolute basis (as it always does this time of year) and on a seasonally adjusted basis. We have more inventory on the market than we’ve seen in nearly a decade.
Months of inventory continues to increase (indicating a weakening market) while the sales to new list ratio was unchanged from March (at a fairly depressed level).
That means market conditions overall weakened a bit further in April. Based on the new methodology combining both MOI and SNLR, we are still balanced but getting close to the edge of a buyers’ market.
Now that we have a new federal government, will the market pick up? Well, I can think of two potential mechanisms for the election to influence sales:
- New stimulative policies could spur market activity
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An increase in consumer confidence after a period of uncertainty could bring buyers off the sidelines.
While both the leading federal parties proposed policies that could help sales (especially in the new build market), those won’t be taking effect until sometime in the future and don’t do anything for the resale market (other than perhaps diverting sales). That leaves a return of consumer confidence after the uncertainty of the election. To check how this has played out in the past, I went back to the last 10 federal elections and compared sales levels before and after the election to see if there was any impact. To do this, I took the sales in the 3 months before the election compared to the 10 year average level for those months, and then compared that to the same 3 months post-election. That takes care of seasonality and if buyers stayed on the sidelines before elections and made their moves after we should see a consistent increase. Here are the results.
From last elections, there is no evidence that sales pick up afterwards, with the average change after the last 10 elections at negative 2%. The volatility in the late 2000s was a boom in the market followed by the financial crisis, and very likely had little to nothing to do with the federal elections. Most other elections showed nearly no change post-election.
However I wouldn’t discount the potential of some improvement in the market looking forward. Right now the market is sluggish because:
- Interest rates didn’t keep decreasing after the fall drop, and affordability remains strained.
-
The trade chaos is leading to a lot of fear and uncertainty around employment
Right now the noises out of Washington are fairly positive remain uncertain, though one imagines at some point they will tire of shooting themselves in the foot and want to renegotiate a stable trade deal with the new Canadian government. On the rates side, if the chaos continues it seems lower rates are inevitable, and then it depends on whether Victoria can continue to sidestep most of the unemployment effects. Either way, my bet continues to be on sideways for longer. On the plus side, unlike other markets ours has not ground to a halt, and I don’t see anything that would cause it to do so imminently.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/05/12/what-its-costing-to-run-a-house
Fair enough. With all due respect to you VicREanalyst. You feel confident with all these upper hundreds/low thousands of PBR about to come online within the next 10-12 months? Again no disrespect to you, I understand you know your shit.
I don’t have a price range, I am looking for a rental property where the numbers pencil. In the middle of a back and forth on one currently.
I understand that. What is your price range? I know a property that will soon hit the market on Landsdown. 1/2 acre, great big house, borders on to park land…I could hook you up. He’s a really good buddy of mine and is currently building his new house just down the road over on Dufferin.
I dont think so, these are usually 1.5m-2m properties. So above average.
I just don’t think there’s a lot of stress in our RE market , nothing in the economy screams disaster ahead .
That’s because your talking high end people here. For example out here in the ghetto, you could more than likely vulture for the weak prey, the ones that took on too much debt and fucked up.
For the move in ready renovation within the last 8 year ones in Oakbay/Fairfield, Broadmead/Cordova Bay, Arbutus areas, I don’t see many that will sell for less than 2023/4 pricing.
Here is a good comp for a Jan 2024 sale in Cordova Bay that I believe a HHVer got: https://housesigma.com/bc/saanich-real-estate/5034-cambria-wood-terr/home/ZxwR7MwjlQeYKabB?id_listing=0A9X3jL4o1ayvgxV&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=
I doubt that same house would go for less than the 2024 sale price right now.
Obviously much different than donwtown condos, but starting to see some options in terms of nice SFHs. Not everything is flying off the shelf.
Lots of variability between different products right now. Condos downtown (exception of Humboldt valley), westshore/bear mountain are taking a beating. Nice SFH in desirable neighborhoods in the core are chugging along.
I don’t think it is going to be sustained through the month. I do think if BOC cuts in June and we see some stability around the tariffs market could come back a bit in terms of sales. As far as prices even if sales picked up a bit there is enough inventory out there and climbing.
Hmm , good to c sales are tracking higher than last year . Maybe folks have catched wind of the interest rate cut coming next month and want to get in front of the pack
Excellent. Thank you.
Middle income homes in the 1970’s were mostly the Gordon Head Box. Near identical homes with minor variation in room lay-outs. If you owned a hammer and a phone book and some how passed grade 12 – you were a home builder. The home’s were simple designs and could be slammed up in three to four months and the home owner could finish their basement when they wanted. The city paid most of the development charges through property taxes so there was only a small hook up fee to city water and sewer. 50 years later they are still standing although most have now been renovated.
The good old days of lawn darts and leaded gasoline.
https://youtu.be/khHzGqgO2Bw?si=WrGFy_HkIDSPPMDt
https://youtube.com/shorts/BxR5uSRT8t8?si=FY1yqhIQ0-_O_voz
Compared to the closest available weekly update period in the previous year. So in this case it’s May 12, 2025 vs May 13, 2024
And the % on sales and new lists are calculated per business day, not per calendar day
Is this compared to the same period last year? Or is it a to-date comparison against the end of the month? Or something else?
Thank you
Sales up 11% compared to same period last year
New lists up 5%
Inventory up 10%
Dow up over 1000 points with the U.S and China dropping tariffs down significantly. Looks like the worst of trumps bluster is behind us. I’m waiting for some good news from the liberals to jumpstart sales in the first time buyers market . Nice to be back to business
Toronto rental rates have come down by several hundreds of dollars since the peak. Downtown condos that were renting at $2,600 are down to $2,224
Causes may be linked to a little bit more rentals available, an increase of condos for sale, and less demand from international students. The largest drop is in downtown Toronto are those renting small units who are moving out of the core to find larger units as they double up to lower combined living costs and increased job insecurity. This is called the donut effect.
The average downtown Victoria condo is presently $2,160. While the median downtown condo sale price is $521,000 or 20 times annual earnings. Down from the peak when it was 22 when they typical downtown condos were selling at $585,900.
The Victoria downtown rental and condominium market is also experiencing the same effect as Toronto.
Month May May
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Saels 254 763
New Listings 577 1,757
Active Listings 3,535 3,338
By the numbers we are on pace for approx 740 sales for the month, but I am predicting we end the month at 715 sales (I think the sales pace will slow a bit in the remaining three weeks). Month end inventory I predict 3700.
Last 5 years sales
2025 – 715 Marko’s prediction
2024 – 763
2023 – 775
2022 – 761
2021 – 1,049
Feels a lot slower on the ground in relation to 2022 to 2024, maybe because the inventory is substantially higher.
Compare to a high-end house where one room has more plugs and pot lights than all the plugs and light fixtures of a home back then.
I would say 1970s home were built on the cheap for maximum profit and 50 years later they are still very servicable and people are regularly updating/renovating them.
fyi, he was referring to his old home (a brand new build wouldn’t have those specs).
You mean your 1.5×3.5 and 1.5×5.5. Ever pick through a pile of new lumber? Half of it I wouldn’t use.
My 2×4 rafters and 2×6 upstairs floor joists would like to have a word with you
I am not sure about that. I have worked on several old houses and can easily relate to the adage “They don’t make them like they used to… Thank goodness.” The wood was far far better. Lots of knot free tight grain Douglas fir but they didn’t use anywhere near as much as today. Floor joists were often 2X8 and I have never seen 2X12. Basements were dug by hand so never went any deeper than they had to so most were well under 8 foot ceiling. Concrete was expensive and not mixed in a plant or truck so often a bit random. I have taken several foundations apart with just a regular claw hammer. I am sure some were much better than mine but they were rarely like a modern pour. I am sure some used rebar but none of the ones I took apart did. Footings are universal now. They appear to have been optional in old houses. Because concrete was expensive it often only came above the ground 6 inches or so. This meant rotted sills were pretty common. Walls were covered with plaster so they often did not worry too much about consistent spacing with the studs. Headers over windows and doors didn’t seem to be common before about the 40’s. I think they just depended on the wall sheathing and small openings to keep things straight. While I have seen sawdust used as wall insulation in the interior I have never seen any on the coast. If you got attic insulation it was Zonolite. Plumbing in the ones I have seen was black iron pipe supply with cast iron waste. The waste was fine but the iron rusted out and was hard to work on. Electrical was all knob and tube with no ground wire. A few fuses on a 60 amp service was a high end house. One house I looked at was 120 volt only with 2 fuses. (I often thought about connecting the second wire which was just left waving in the air for free power but it was only a friends rental) We haven’t even got to lead paint or asbestos or unlined chimneys or coal furnaces that depended on convection to circulate the air. There were some very skilled craftsmen that could do amazing things with hand tools. Doing fancy Victorian trim with chisels and hand planes took a lot more time, skill, and practice than today’s houses so I have lots of respect for builders then but that doesn’t mean I would turn my nose up at a modern build.
Houses built in 1916 are 10 times better than the crap they’re producing today.
There are a ton of the Sears houses still standing in and around Chicago. And they’ve aged well.
https://www.searshouseseeker.com/2023/06/a-trip-to-see-chicagoland-sears-houses.html
“Sears provided building plans and specifications, along with the lumber and any other materials needed. The shipment included everything from nails, screws, and paint to prebuilt building parts, such as staircases and dining nooks”.
1916 dollars that 938 for all the materials to build a house (except brick/plaster/cement) including plans is only $30k in today’s dollars…
Groot, you act as though with these prefabs you just pull a rip cord and they will just unfold into this brand new house. You will still have to hire local workers and build it on site.
Max, that is a stick frame house. You still have to hire local workers and build it on site.
Back in 1916 you could order a prefab house out of the Sears Christmas “wish book”.
That’s an issue Max. People are unfamiliar with modular homes so they will be reluctant at first. But modular homes have been around for a long time now. We actually have some in Victoria dating back to the mid 1990’s. I haven’t heard of any problems by home inspectors regarding them. If it weren’t that they were built to California earth quake standards at that time, there not distiguishable from stick frame. Just better built.
If I were pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into a house build, I’d stick with the traditional house builder. Its tried, tested and true.
That would be a stick frame house Frank. Framing can be done quite quickly. If it were a modular home the entire house including cabinets and appliances would be delivered in one day and in two to four weeks the new owners would be moving in.
That doesn’t mean the house will be less expensive to buy than a stick frame. That price is set by the market place.
The advantage to a buyer is that they can buy a property with an old house, demolish it, and do all the site preparation necessary while the home is being built in a factory. They will have a delivery date and a contract price. Their home will be deliverd on time and on budget. Try that with a traditional home builder.
One morning I saw a a new house going up. At 10:00am it was a foundation and floor. By 3:30pm there was an entirely framed, and sheeted house with a roof. I don’t think it was prefab, a crew had it up in a few hours. Can’t get much faster than that.
Prefab wall panels work great, but you need a level plane. Foundation wall’s poured level all around the perimeter. In most cases that can’t happen, so you would step the foundation to follow the grade of the lot. This would require a framer to come in and build pony walls off the foundation to create a level plane around the perimeter. Then the framer would construct the floor system to receive the prefab wall panels.
When I am was building my house so was my neighbour and he ordered pre-fab walls (I believe Slegg Lumber was building them at that time?) and exactly this…I don’t think he saved anything, but his product was much better than my onsite framing.
That all being said you could reduce constructions costs by a huge amount with some basic common sense
Elimate soil sample test for new service connections
Eliminate owner builder exam
Eliminate requirements to replace completely serviceable sidewalks with brand new sidewalks
Eliminate arborist reports and other consultants, if tree is within building envelope or within so many feet of a building envelope there should be no needs for expensive reports.
Etc, etc.
The problem with a pre-fab home is it still needs services and COV will still require you carry out soil sample testing @ 10k.
You think COV would ever allow you to crane in any of these -> https://westcoastcontainerhomes.ca/
and let you hook up to your existing water line and sewer/drain system…nope. You have to install a foundation, upgrade all your services, probably a million engineering certificates/fees/etc., and the final cost of such ends up in very low uptake of such. If they relaxed the regulations (like why would you need to write the owner builder exam for one of these) there would be better uptake.
My prediction is Carney can’t get housing starts up to 250k/year during his 2,4, or whatever years he ends up in power.
Exactly how much tax payer money is going to be pissed away on the R&D of this pipe dream? This whole prefab house thing will just be another Fast ferry scandal of the late 1990’s.
“They might be the most infamous ships in the history of British Columbia: three B.C. Ferries that were hundreds of millions of dollars over budget, couldn’t run as fast or efficiently as promised, and were partly responsible for sinking the NDP government of the 1990s.
And now, they’re back.
On Facebook Marketplace.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/fastcat-ferries-facebook-marketplace-1.7080937
Affordable houses prices, the good old days.
Another bad take from the “appraiser” good luck doing a reno on a pre fab home. Might as well just buying a trailer lmao.
Not going to get much of a cost savings Sidekick when only half the house is finished. The big expenses are not at the begining such as framing but at the end with finishing.
Max, I’m sure any factory that manufactures for the BC market will incorporate regional considerations to meet the BC building code and signed off by a professional engineer.
But as I said before, this isn’t likely to completely replace stick frame or make houses affordable. We still will need to build homes the old fashion way. Making homes affordable isn’t just about reducing building costs as what a home sells for is determined by the market not what it cost to build.
The obstacle for modular homes is that a factory has to be built first and that won’t happen unless there is a long term commitment to purchase housing units. How the government solves this riddle has yet to be determined. Cities are working towards this with published housing designs to streamline approvals. Modular homes would also streamline the municipal inspection process as they homes would be inspected and signed off by a professional engineer before leaving the factory.
A land developer can create a 20 lot subdivision and instead of selling the lots to several contractors, the developer could sell directly to the home owner by providing a selection of homes to choose from to be delived to a site. Homes built on time and on budget.
How quickly can a home be built in a factory? Here’s a video of modular home built in 5 and half weeks in a factory. You can’t build a traditional site home in that time.
https://youtu.be/Cl2TAK8YDuc?si=hlAgUekH6KnsF3uw
Not a joke. Lots of high-performance building products are imported from the EU – I often drool over the stuff they have access to.
I’m not claiming it will save money over local stick framing. It’ll cost more, but you’re getting a much better overall product and will save on operating costs. I’m just saying the government could ‘invest’ in cloning some of the EU factories and get some value-add going on our wood.
My definition of pre-fab is just envelope and interior framing (so framing/windows/doors/insulation/cladding/roofing). Easy for the muni to inspect and it comes with an engineer’s stamp.
That dude in the youtube video you linked from 5 years ago in Toronto, is probably already tits up. That build does not meet the BCBC requirements BTW.
Groot , your friend could have ordered a prefab from me, it won’t meet code and really not allowed in 2 many places in b.c , but I would have been happy to sell him one
How your next new home could be built.
https://youtu.be/Kg8_yagUBo4?si=kf-brXWWdPvhqnVN
Compared to traditional stick frame housing
https://youtu.be/c7p-CvyBigY?si=LDTloLOHG4Aq2PJr
Because people on this thread are talking about ordering a prefab from Europe thinking it will save them money by doing that.
That was a joke right?
Thurst a friend of mine had an ADU built in their back yard. It took nine months for the builder to complete while a prefab could have been built in a factory and delivered onto the site and set up in a month. The ADU went for weeks at a time without one tradesman on site. That’s eight months of lost rental income.
Max why do you think prefabs would not have to meet those same codes? Where do you find all this land? The same place we are finding it now to build stick frame.
https://app.standardres.ca/2574-cook-st/
https://listing.uplist.ca/RichardGerhardt-3084-Carroll-St
https://media.reshot.ca/sites/74-crease-ave-victoria-v8z-1s5-15476986/branded
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CS5kmU4aGyY
Lol. Do you have any idea just how thick the British Columbia Building Code is? Do you have a clear understanding of the current seismic structural requirements that go into a typical residential SFH these days? Are you up to speed on the costs involved with the structural engineers/soils engineers and all the groundwork required to bring the foundation, drains, services, back fill to the point where you can order the framing package?
Groot , that’s alittle bit far fetched, prefab will just be one part of the market , they won’t be putting anybody out of business. Traditional house builders will always do well
Groot, where are they going to find all this dead flat land? I suppose they could just put them on blocks and keep the costs down.
There will be push back from traditional home builders when it comes to prefab houses if the prefabs are in direct competition with stick frame builders for the same buyer. Max is an example as there is a potential for prefabs to undercut them and put him and others like him out of business if the prefabs are competing for the same target market of buyers.
That’s something that has to be addressed.
I also remember moving a younger friend into a house they purchase in north oak bay off cadboro bay for under 600K in 2014.
Useful list. In terms of affordability, a $243,000 house in Victoria would be $410,000 in 2025 adjusted for inflation.
And what has happened since 2000? Massive, unchecked immigration and foreign investment. Until lately, when the government finally woke up and put in new regulations. Too little too late.
I stand corrected, here are the average SFH prices in 2001.
Victoria / Victoria West $243,445
Oak Bay $386,507
Esquimalt $194,878
View Royal $242,935
Saanich East $282,922
Saanich West $228,093
Central Saanich $275,808
North Saanich $376,057
Sidney $215,083
Highlands $279,706
Colwood $207,946
Langford $208,082
Metchosin $328,299
Sooke $205,145
We paid 225k in 2000. Big house big lot.
“It has never been affordable in Victoria.”
–
Max, that’s not true, when we moved to Victoria in 2001 the average house price was 245K, on the Westshore it was probably closer to 150K which may have only been 2X or 3X a couples income. We rented a 2 bedroom ground floor of a house for the first 6 months when we moved to Victoria for I believe about $900/month on Linden a 1/2 block from the ocean. I remember thinking that house prices had been flat for 10 years and it seemed like a good time to buy, that and the noise above us was annoying so we bought a house, we had a 2 bedroom condo in Toronto that we sold for around 220K around the same time.
Ask this guy what he thinks of his prefab…
Prefab homes are not and never were thought as being a “magic bullet”. They have to be used as a complimentary product not a substitute product.
Sidekick, once again don’t make the mistake that cost is the same as market. If you are manufacturing a home that when installed on site is lower to build than a traditional style home why would you sell it for significantly less? You would just be leaving money on the table and the buyer would just resell at the higher price.
This is what the PM’s plan has to address. The point isn’t to undercut traditional builders and put them out of business as that could cause a contraction in the supply of houses. What is needed is the difference between a complementary and a substitute good.
Pepsi and Coke are a typical example of substitute goods, whereas fries and ketchup may be considered complements. Another analogy would be a strata condominium versus a leasehold condomnium which are not direct substitutes.
The problem with prefab is that one needs to build a 20 million dollar factory first. The first unit out of the door would cost 20 million unlike a similar hand built home of the same utility. That original unit cost drops as more units are sold. It’s not likely that someone will gamble building a factory unless they have long term commitments to build units. That’s another issue that the PM’s plan has to address. That might be addressed through a combination of debt and equity financing.
Henry Ford’s original assembly line had the plan of having a car every off the assembly line rather than a hand built horse less carriage that would take months. That’s not likely for houses, but when you have a controlled envirionment that can build houses every day of the year with standardized components that can be assembled with little waste its possible to increase the supply and reduce costs.
Todays traditional built homes are more efficent to build but the basic way we build houses hasn’t changed in a century. There is a lot of downtime due to weather and waiting for materials to arrive and trades to be available when there is no work being done on the home. As a prospective purchaser you are paying for that downtime.
Ok Thursty, that one on plumer went for 2.6. I am surprised someone paid that much for it. Must be top notch reno’s.
Most everything is already prefab anyway, given the prefab wall panels, prefab floor systems, prefab roof trusses, prefab windows, prefab interior/exterior prehung doors, prefab cabinets, prefab bath/shower stalls including the glass surrounds and mirrors, prefab counter tops.
Its nothing new on Vancouver Island.
https://www.rasltd.ca/
There is all sorts of modular/ prefab that’s available now , but would not say it’s the magic bullet for affordability. Today is probaly the most affordable housing will be in the future
It has never been affordable in Victoria. I was paying $500 per/mo when I was 17 years old for my bedroom when I was still living at home.
They build houses underground in Australia to escape the heat. There’s a plan. They had prefab houses 70 years ago, they’re called mobile homes. I lived in one in Georgia when I was going to school. Bought it for 10 grand and sold it for 11 grand. My first real estate venture.
Just need to look to Europe for pre-fab. They’re the leaders by a big margin, so much so that it can make sense to actually import pre-fab from there. We’ve had some adoption of European designs/manufacturing in the high-performance window space over the last 10 years. There were very few local options when I was building 8 years ago (and I imported from the EU), but now there are some local-ish manufacturers in the mix (many still sourcing components from the EU and assembling here).
In high-performance construction, pre-fab isn’t a cost-savings – but you (often) get a vastly superior product. It’s also faster once on-site, usually only taking a few days with the crane to get the structure erected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7qMQwEWGiM (recent Courtenay imported pre-fab).
Prefab definitely offers some new solutions for providing more inexpensive housing.
I like the idea…… but perhaps we have to do the extraordinary and think bigger.
Here is an example out of China.
https://www.archdaily.com/612783/chinese-company-builds-57-story-skyscraper-in-19-days
Single homes done in a factory and placed on several hundred thousand dollar lots s not bold enough thinking in my mind.
We need to look up.
Frank, they will be less expensive on a per unit bases, but unlike a bespoke house the cost of the factory and equipment has to be factored into the business model. Overtime the price per unit will continue to decline as the cost of the factory is paid off. The PM’s plan will have to address this issue.
But you are getting ahead of your self. Cost is not the same as Market. The price of the finished prefab homes on a lot will be driven up by market forces. That’s why I want to hear the PM’s plan. At this point I am not about to poo poo a plan because of personal bias or ignorance.
Frank, has a great point, I would guess that a decent lot in the core, say 7,000 feet, on a quiet street that is bare and ready to build on would be 1.2 to 1.3MM?
Maybe we need to do what Australia did 100 years ago and build a few new planned cities from
scratch like Canberra was.
I’m also optimistic about pre fab. Some of these houses can be put together in a week or two. That’s compared with several months for a house built on site. Even after services the savings on labour costs alone have to be substantial.
Prefab homes still need serviced land to be built on. Will the total cost be less? They still need to be assembled and finished inside. Sounds like the same amount of work and expense (land). This isn’t Legoland.
I’m looking forward to hearing more of the Prime Minister’s Prefab promise to provide debt and equity financing to innovative Canadian prefabricated homebuilders. I have spoke many times on this blog about prefab housing and I think it is the way of the future. The government can provide funding to build prefab factories and orders of units from manufacturesrs to create sustained demand.
The months of inventory in the downtown core is high as buyers are more heisitant in the market place to buy. But don’t hold your breath for prices to come down substantially as sellers are not slashing prices as their expectations are still high. Prices tend to rise quickly but are sticky on the way down unless there is a black swan event or the number of duress sales increases substantially.
The more inventory grows, the more properties that have to sell under duress circumstances also grows. If the number of duress sales form the brunt of sales then we would have a foreclosure market. That’s not happening in Victoria. It would take possibly a year or two of sustained high months of inentory for a foreclosure market to appear. As it is now all that is needed is for the asking price to be lowered slightly and buyers appear.
Leo , luving Victoria’s low unemployment. Sunny days on the horizon
Probably, but not necessarily. My client ended up with an accepted offer this morning on a one bedroom with parking in a non-previous SRT quality concrete building downtown for 110k less than previous purchase price.
That being said the deals might be in previous SRT buildings because if the unit was previous STRed it is usually beat on (doesn’t show well) and now there is a long term tenant in there (much more difficult to sell).
A seller just cancelled a listing at the Juliet that was asking price $475,000 and the pre-sale purchase price back in 2006 was $342,900+GST. Not sure if that even kept up with inflation.
Good listings at the Era too (https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28171933/1106-728-yates-st-victoria-downtown) and I could see the Era bouncing back if downtown was cleaned up. It is a really nice block and a solid concrete building, but simple (shouldn’t be too much strata fee risk) imo.
I’ll be the first one to admit I am not a great fit for someone that wants their agent to help them picture their kids playing in the backyard and walking to school. Someone below noted a Beach Drive purchase they thought was a good buy and I was the buyer’s agent on the purchase. On that property we used what I’ve nick named the fake unconditional offer strategy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssPqw7K-o0M) and beat out much higher competing offers. That type of stuff is more my thing.
Plenty of local lifestyle type agents you can find on YT and IG.
I have been keeping my eye on some rec properties cutting prices. Outside the urban areas seem to be really feeling the impact now.
Still going strong.
Marco thanks for confirming your fiduciary duty really only applies to the price negotiation.
Your gonna target the previous STR buildings first right? I think those are coming back in the next couple of years.
The one I am looking at had a price reduction already and looks like their 5 year mortgage is coming up for renewal, looks motivated. I offered low with flexible close date.
This part of the equation applies to whether you buy now, next year, or in five years. Ideally, you want to stay in any purchase 10 years to minimize short term market risk.
I don’t get into fraser institute rankings, if this is something that is important to my clients they can let me know and I’ll set them up on the appropriate search.
There are 1,650 real estate agents in Victoria. If you think anyone covers market trends better than I do please let me know -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0TGqvrwxrk
I’ve noticed a number of agents on YT take a dig at my channel by starting some of their videos with “this isn’t a channel where you’ll just hear statistics” and then the video goes into a lifestyle thing of them walking around Victoria 🙂
Reality is the average buyer I work with is not interested in market anaylsis. In my initial communication I let me clients know if that is something that interests them they can watch my YouTube video updates but I am not going to annoy them with market stats. Most people just want to buy a home. You would be shocked how many people immediately unsubscribe from their automated search feed when they remove conditions on a property.
So I am suppose to tell them not to buy in markets like 2021-2022 due to bidding wars and then talk them out of buying in soft markets like we are in right now because prices might drop further?
Problem with seasonality is it’s like 5% factor while the market on the whole is a 95% factor. i.e., you are much better off buying in a spring market in a slow market versus in December in an overheated marketed and I can’t predict the market.
On the whole I view my job as securing the best possible purchase property/price for my clients within the context of the current marketplace. And obviously carrying out all the due diligence so they are aware of what they are buying and hopefully it isn’t problematic (and if it is, at least they know).
Marco, so your saying your only role is to offer advice on pricing and the homes features like number of bedrooms? I’m not talking about timing the market, I’m saying your should provide prospective on things like, how long do the clients intend to live in the proeprty, are you having children and schools, inventory trends, sesaonal factors like people tend to overbid in the spring and helping clients not get in over their heads in a bidding war. From my experience most realtors seem to sit back and don’t attempt to act as an independant voice. But like I said most realtors seem to be cheerleaders for the market and order takers on commission.
Prices could go up or down and no one has the ability to time the market so not really sure what the fiduciary duty is to a client from that perspective? Client also could buy a property and be laid off the day after….is it my responsibility to explain all of that to them in terms of pros and cons?
I am personally going to waiting until July/August to resume my unconditional offers on missing middle properties.
Another thought I have is maybe I’ll try some low unconditional offers this summer on tenanted 1-bedroom units downtown. These have completely frozen up and the numbers are starting to make a bit more sense like mids-400s asking prices (in quality buildings) with a tenant in place at $2,500ish. Since I know all the buildings/stratas perhaps ask for 12 months of bank statements showing rent prior to offer just to make sure tenant has paid rent on time and then offer unconditional with a 10-day close and assume tenant. Right now, no investors in the marketplace so all sellers are looking at 4-month completions plus dealing with the online notice generator and hoping the tenant actually moves out and doesn’t dispute. Maybe cash in their bank account in 10 days would motivate someone to get rid of a rental property.
Offered low on one to where the numbers work, waiting to see what happens.
Seeing some good opportunities right now on various product that is 20% off peak and buyers have completely frozen up.
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This is where a good realtor with experience can actually add value and perspective on the pros and cons of buying now, but I would assume most realtors are more on the side of being cheerleader for the markets and only explaining the benefits of buying especially in a slow market, realtors should act with a fiduciary duty to their clients but that hasn’t been my experience.
100%. Seeing some good opportunities right now on various product that is 20% off peak and buyers have completely frozen up.
Agree. If there is a decline, they’ll be on here posting things like “Why would I catch a falling knife?”
Vicre, agree Debbie downers don’t have money and are just fearful investors. People think they are the next micheal Burry
More astonishing are those believing they will have the stomach to pull the trigger in a recession based drop even if their jobs are safe.
NewB: “& people losing jobs, the price drops will accelerate through the spring and summer.”
What I find more astonishing are those believing they’ll be able to afford to buy on a big recession-based drop.
Food is a LOT cheaper in Montreal, particularly if you avoid major chains.
https://www.supermarchepa.com/pages/weekly-flyer
Same can be said in Vancouver, normal eating out and groceries are much cheaper than Victoria. I can get a variety of lunches downtown Vancouver for under $15 no problem. In Vic it’s tough if I want anything outside of Italian Deli or fast food.
I’m in Montreal. There are a few old 3/4 Plex style needing a lot of work but seem to have real potential. That being said RE is more expensive here than I would have thought but food is generally cheaper. Plus they have cannelé hère for less than $3. Not staying here just visiting. As nice as it is it’s too cold for me in winter.
Dee, good to c your back , I thought u might have packed your bags and left for Europe permanently.
It seems Montreal has it figured out . Their market has been trending upwards for a while with a 8 point increase in prices y over y. Not only do the French have great food and style , but a a real zest for real estate
Cute!
A brand new bear. They were turning into an endangered species around here.
Real estate markets don’t turn that quickly. To see any serious potential price declines across the board you pretty much need to wait until next spring.
I just had a listing cancel yesterday….”will try again in a year or two when market improves.”
Dee that could be happening. The pendulm does change from rural to urban living and then reverses. But I have no data to show this is happening.
I lost my insider who could get me these government reports. I guess I should have kept up my golf game.
It seems people here are clueless and living in a fantasy. With economy slowing, minimal population growth (maybe declining in Victoria) & people losing jobs, the price drops will accelerate through the spring and summer.
Like most of Canada we are now breaking a decade high in listings. For quite awhile we were bucking the national trends, but it seems that we were just showing up late to the party.
https://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/fraser-valley-home-sales-returning-to-seasonal-norms-in-november-after-october-surge-3-2/
Lots of bidding wars in Winnipeg, and people are leaving the city. Go figure. Lower average price less than half of Victoria prices but if you want something nice in a good area, prices aren’t that affordable.
Take a break for a few weeks and come back only to find the sky is falling in Victoria. Meanwhile my friend in Saskatoon just sold a property over ask and tells me it’s a hot sellers market there. It’s like the poles of real estate have switched.
Maybe they’re moving to the 51st state.
59 new SFH listings in the core alone in the last two days…can’t say I’ve seen that before. We are now at 509 SFH freehold properties listed in the core with 65 under $1 million. Only a few montsh ago we were in the 20s for under $1 million core.
I like to keep track and review all new listings, price changes, and sales but it has been difficult to do so lately with the volume. Last 24 hrs
New Listings: 102
Sales: 38
Price Decrease: 37
I can pretty much tell when cruise ships are in by the number of oblivious slow-moving tourists that I have to dodge in the Wharf Street bike lanes
Here is one for RUSH: https://realtor.ca/real-estate/28284096/1644-morningside-pl-saanich-lambrick-park?utm_source=consumerapp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialsharelisting
Max , lol havnt been in the sticky wicket in along time , I still luv going downtown always a good vibe and good restaurants. Garricks is my go to for a swift
Were you thursty enough to grab a pint at the sticky wicket while you were down there?
Slammed in Victoria today with 2 cruise ships in , the cash register’s must be ringing non stop. All those wonderful tourist pulling out they’re wallets
Wow, really seems like the SFD inventory is surging onto the market right now. It will be interesting to see if some of the value buys.
Canada’s house prices as price to income is actually “middle of the pack” for the g20 countries.
For example, here are 10 of the 20 G20 countries with higher price to income house prices than Canada.
France, Turkey, India, Mexico, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, South Korea, China,
And 5 others have price to income lower, but within 20% of Canada, ….Italy, UK, Germany, Spain, Australia,
That leaves only these G20 countries cheaper than Canada by more than 20%.
USA, South Africa, Netherlands
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp
The point being, you can’t just look at price to income ratio and assume it’s going to return to some “good ole days” level. When that isn’t happening in many other countries, and Canada already is “middle-of-the pack” for price to income, so maybe that’s the “normal” level. The high price to income seen in many countries likely just reflects the huge increase in number of households worldwide, which has grown faster than amount of desirable properties.
I expect that trend to continue….. meanly higher home prices worldwide including Canada.
They are fine. These guys really knew how to get material sold. Like were talking fully loaded B trains heading out the gate every single day for 30 years.
looked at a 2.5 million plus property yesterday. Owner is selling and moving back to Alberta to be with family.
Rennie laying off people
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/renniegroup_today-was-a-difficult-day-at-rennie-we-activity-7326319988921769984-hooB?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=android_app&rcm=ACoAAANfh-YBk48CKBJ3hySmMT9QHETLGc9XMoQ&utm_campaign=copy_link
Sales jobs should be pretty transferable, I think they will be fine. Also, after 30 years it’s time to retire anyways…
I personally know two really good sales reps at Slegg’s that were recently let go. After 30 years of dedicated service 100k annual salary.
Could be a lot of downsizing in our future. My neighbor at the cottage was let go lately, he’s 63 and spent 37 years with the same company (safety equipment). He was completely surprised and called it a corporate reshuffle, whatever that means. They also bought a condo in Mexico a year ago. Hopefully it supports itself.
1214 Crofton Terr seems underpriced, not sure if it’s set up for a bidding war or if the owner thinks they really fcked up the back yard.
I’ve been into that unit, too loud and pretty much at street level for long term living but would mint a STR.
I think the buy Canadian movement will have some lasting impact even if Trump suddenly becomes our best buddy.
On the other hand i think the travel boycott will weaken once Trumpling and his MAGgots ease up on Canada. Because it actually sucks avoiding travel to the only country we share an accessible** land border with. Especially a country that’s got some pretty cool stuff to visit.
**Assuming not many folks crossing into Greenland on Hans Island
But only one flight tomorrow!!! 80% decline in one day
As you yourself have documented here, people have weird ideas about realtors, including the idea that some realtors have the secret sauce that is going to get them a lot more money. Same impulse that makes people follow “hot” investing tips.
I don’t think it would be too hard for Canadians to fall back in luv with the U.S , just a few kind words and all would be forgiven
Price to income on houses doesn’t mean anything when it comes to predicting home prices in high appreciation markets. Most people are not buying first homes in these markets without family help – often a cosigner and down payment assistance. And when it comes to move-up or downsizing buyers – they are using home equity – or have been for the past 20 years based on outsized gains.
In terms of Canadian consumer behaviour, you are ignoring all of the evidence out there that Canadians are travelling and buying less from the US. When you are complaining you are cherry picking some metric that does not prove your point.
See: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/canadians-put-off-trump-bluster-border-arrests-1.7518416 – 910,000 fewer land crossings by Canadians to US in March 2025 than 2024
https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/tariff-dispute-air-canada-reduce-us-capacity-westjet-sees-25-drop
https://www.blogto.com/travel/2025/05/canadian-airlines-scrapping-us-flights/
Janion unit purchased in 2022 for $1,050,000 re-sold this morning for $828,000. Part of that loss is condo market softness and part is Airbnb restrictions.
Honestly, I think it is counter productive bringing this to the attention of clients. I think the client (especially seller) is thinking why is he bringing this up, kind of odd, I just want the most amount of money for my house….don’t really care how the real estate fees flow afterwards.
Small sample size but the three times I went into a listing presentation and pitched Fair Realty as local I didn’t get the listing and my average success rate is around 80 to 85%. Could be just bad luck…and all three went with US based brands (none have sold yet :)).
Or the seller is thinking why would I use a local brokerage, I want a big global brand so my house can be sold to banned foreign buyer above market value.
People have just begun thinking about it. Your company should be promoting it more vociferously, especially now. I don’t think people are as apathetic as you seem to believe.
Not trying to pitch my brokerage, but I find it fascinating that the consumer by overwhelming market share opts to use US based brands to sell their Victorria property to another Victoria resident in the current environment. Why not support one of the locally owned and operated brokerages…the same person will still buy your house at the same price (determined by market value).
Even before this non-sense I’ve been with Fair Realty for 15 years and one of the reasons is rather support a local owner than pay franchise/corporate fees to billionaires.
Thanks. We’ll be using Fair Realty when we do our upcoming downsizing.
Au contraire.
There is a list of local brokerages such as Fair Realty, Pemberton Holmes, Macdonald Realty, etc., and there is a list of Canadian based too (Royal LePage, etc.).
I’ve been on Reddit/FB a bit too much and I’ve brought this up at listing presentations (the fact that with Fair Realty 100% stays within BC and all employees for Fair Realty aka conveyancing department are BC based) and people look at me with a blank face and then list with a competitor where the head office is US based and the CEO flies around on a private jet (aka part of your real estate fees to sell your Victoria home to another fellow Victoria resident is fueling that jet). At the end of the day no one cares, just a lot of chatter online.
Same as with the environment…let’s worry about the environment, as long as it doesn’t inconvenience me personally one bit and I can continue to drive my SUV so I can sit a bit higher.
Five flights Vancouver to Vegas today as well 🙂 My fav metric.
Looks like Vatican doesn’t care either, just elected American pope 🙂
Which brokerages don’t have head offices in the U.S.? I think Engel & Völkers is based in Germany, but I’m not aware of any based in Canada.
100% agree; however, I am not optimistic that we will become more productive.
Reviewing sales and just went through 10 in a row where the listing brokerage and buyers’ agent brokerage both have head corporate offices in the US. So local Victoria owner selling to another local Victoria buyer (most likely) and both using representatives where a portion of their compensation is flowing to the US. So much for buy Canadian 🙂 We can’t even do transansctions amongst eachother without send $ to US.
I have always had a problem with the media’s “fluffer” articles comparing median house prices to median household incomes.
It would be a lot better to compare median house prices to the median incomes of prospective purchasers actively looking to buy.
That type of data is a lot more difficult to obtain as it has to come from the lenders’ mortgage applications. They aren’t going to be giving that information to a reporter.
Unlikely, now all crown corporations along with excluded provincial government employees are on a salary freeze with the exception of promotions. Layoffs currently underway at atleast one large provincial ministry. All ministries are required to submit their DOGE plans in the coming months and then larger scale program cuts and layoffs will be assessed. NDP needs to balance the budget by next election.
The tarriff and trade restrictions have added to fears that stagflation could become a reality, as they may push prices higher while slowing economic growth.
That could be a major problem, making it harder for the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada to manage monetary policy as both countries deal with high inflation, slow economic growth, and rising unemployment. Interest rates may not be enough to fix both inflation and stagnation at the same time.
The last time Canada experience stagflation was in the 1970’s and 1980s. That period was largely driven by supply shocks. We have had seven interest rate drops since June 2024 which has done very little for the housing market.
What makes you think another one or two is going to turn the housing market around?
From Kelowna to St. John’s: The best and worst cities to be a first-time homebuyer
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-from-kelowna-to-st-johns-the-best-and-worst-cities-to-be-a-first-time/
No paywall: https://archive.ph/pahQZ
My guess right now is that we do have another five years of flat.
If I were Carney, I would be looking at ways to disincentivize housing as a place for investment other than as a primary residence and looking at ways to get investment dollars into more productive things to raise the GDP. I would also consider how to temper the disproportionate gains on housing for home owners vs. those who are not yet in the market through some sort of cap gains tax on primary residences.
Last week I was sent new updates for Terms of Reference (TOR) from one of the largest bank in Canada. This lender is tightening up on their regulations regarding rentals and renovations. The banks may be less concerned about the impact of high borrowing costs but also have identified what types of properties where they are at an increased risk.
“While indebtedness remains elevated, it has come down over the past 12 months—the ratio of household debt to disposable income has declined from 179% to 173%. With interest rates lower now than a year ago, the Bank is less concerned than it was about the impact of high borrowing costs on debt serviceability.”
Reason I asked Leo to do the post election analysis above is I’ve come across a lot of sellers that are thinking along of the lines of “will wait for until after the election as the market will improve.”
A predict a lot of sellers will be cancelling this summer/fall hoping to re-list next year in a “better market;” however, it could be five years of flat. It happened 1993 to 2001 and 2008 to 2015….it isn’t super far fetched.
Or we could get three more rate cuts this year without massive layoffs and the market improves a bit. Who knows.
If both sides were willing to accept this, the excess inventory would be gone in a day. Meanwhile, sellers are pricing 10% to 15% above 2022 prices because 5% yearly appreciation is baked in their subconscious. And buyers are wanting 5% to 10% discounts because of economic uncertainty. I predict the standoff will continue for some time.
I am not saying its the end of the world here, but you should get your shit together.
Yep we are still eking out growth with no signs of a recession . Economy is still humming along but it’s no great shakes
Eventually, yes. But eventually we are all dead. In the meantime, a recession in Canada, but IMHO not anything cataclysmic, and maybe maybe not a shallow recession in the US. And the bigger can gets kicked down the road. Not enough going on here to warrant changing one’s plans I think. But we will see of course.
Anyone waiting for prices to drop or prices to increase are going to be waiting a long time.
This recession that is coming should of happened back in 2008. If you have to bail out major banks and monetize debt…That’s a problem.
Over the years Leo has noted he thinks the underprice and delayed offer strategy is a good approach in any market including slow markets and I’ve disagreed; however, I think he might be right when it comes to certain product such as SFHs in the core but definitively under 1.5 million and most likely under $1.2 million. The home that had 10 offers on it today last I heard was priced under $1 million. Depsite a 10 year high in inventory and slow sales it still had 10 offers!
Problem with north of $2.5 million is there are so few buyers that are in a position to purchase at that price point that you can’t really underpriced because if it even is a great value at below market there might not be multiple buyers for it at that specific point and time. For example, if you take a property with a hypothetical market value of $3.5 million and list it for $2,995,000 there is a good chance there is just one buyer out there at that time that can pay that much, and it sells for $2,995,000.
If you list a $1.1 million property for $995,000 there are 10s of buyers out there that have the purchasing power and it will likely get bid up closer to, or over market value.
Marketing email from one of the few pre-sale projects on the Westshore
“*Announcement from our newly elected Prime Minister
If you’re working with first-time homebuyers, here’s some welcome news!
*(Please note that the announcement below has not taken effect as of yet)
Prime Minister Carney announced the elimination of the GST for first-time homebuyers purchasing homes under $1 million. This measure will save Canadians up to $50,000, making homeownership more affordable, especially for young families.
Let’s see what the numbers show in the example below
$609,000 purchase price
$10,000 purchase incentive (our current Exclusive Offer – details below)
No property transfer tax
5% down payment
$570,000 mortgage
4.29% interest rate
$2817 monthly payment (+ applicable strata fee and taxes)
“Our government is laser-focused on lowering costs for Canadians and making homeownership a reality. Eliminating the GST will save first-time homebuyers up to $50,000 and spur housing construction across the country.” The Rt. Hon. Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada.
Our condominiums might be a perfect answer for your buyer(s). The 18-month construction window allows time to build up a larger down payment and time to plan their move into a new quality home.”
Marko would it be something someone could do for a property north of 2.5 , or is it working for lower priced properties in the 1.5 range
Underprice and delay still working on SFHs in the core….
“Hi everyone, we now have 10 offers in hand”
I don’t do the sales counter at Slegg’s. I have a sales rep.
There is so much PBR construction going on out here. Like were talking Russia/China style builds. Once built out the available rental units will be in the upper hundreds, possibly even low thousands. If you are banking on the rental income from the basement suite, you might want to think again.
Good stuff , that’s why you’re the only one standing at the sales counter at 8 , cheers mate
No, they haven’t slowed down for me, they have slowed down for everyone in the renovation industry. People are tapped out. I seen it coming, I saw it coming a year ago. I took the bull by the horns and reached out and networked with pretty much every restoration outfit in town. As a result of that reaching out and networking, I am now super busy for the foreseeable future in a recession proof environment making good money along the way.
Max, from what u post I’m guessing your in the Reno business has it slowed down for you
Go to Slegg’s at 8am.
Max , what signs are seeing for a whopper of a recession. My company is receiving shipments on building products weekly and I’m not hearing a whole lot of gripping from suppliers
I place a lot of weight on people with boots on the ground like Max when looking at the economy.
A broken clock is correct twice per day. I am old enough to smell a recession. This next recession heading our way is going to be a fucking whopper. I can tell just by my suppliers. I am in the final stages of the transitioning my operation into strictly fire/flood/tree emergency restoration. Its recession proof and the money is good.
Wow, I didn’t realize someone no one watches would draw this much of a response, I don’t watch many of these types of videos and go to utube for interviews and opinions of mostly respected authors, I saw this guy pop up yesterday when I was watching an interview from CNBC of hedge fund manager paul tutor jones and I saw it on the side and clicked on it, his videos appear to get 25K to 50K views which is solid I guess for Canada. The video appeared to presents facts and charts published by the real estate boards so more factual based but i guess facts get confused with opinions when people don’t like what the charts show. I believe Garth didn’t present facts but more his opinion, I don’t know if he’s still around.
I am not a perma bear on real estate, hell I bought a home when I was in my 20’s in 2001. I look at assets from a non emotional side and strictly look at valuations and as I have said for several years now home values are out of line with incomes in Canada and when that happens they eventually revert back to their long term trend lines, just as I said a few months ago with the stock market and especially Apple stock was trading in the $250range and I said its fair value was well below $200 and mostly likely closer to $140 based on its earnings and revenue growth rate.
They will one day 100%; however, Garth Turner has been publishing books calling for a real estate market downturn in Canada since the early 2000. If you were 30 back then listening to his advice you are now 55…..maybe he will be right by the time you get to 80 and that home you want will finally drop 30% (after it has gone up 500%).
There are youtube videos of Garth talking about had overpriced Vancouver is back in 2009 🙂
I myself don’t watch doomsday videos and such . They really are life’s losers that have been predicting the end of the world for so long . The stats just don’t show all this despair people are dreaming up . Maybe one day they will get they’re wish
When a grudge lingers for years, holding onto resentment can sometimes weigh a person down more than the original conflict itself.
Unfortunately, he has a large following and the really good high-level content barely gets any views. Simply a reflection of the average common sense and critical thinking skills out there. Hope that everyone that started listening to Garth in 2003 is doing alright 🙂
I see that three months ago, that guy posted an interview with an astrologer about the direction of the housing market. And you expect anyone to take him seriously?
aka Garth Turner who figured out how to use YouTube 🙂
There’s optimism than there is delusion, best to just look at your hard date. Going to squeeze in a quick 9 holes
Bobby k , I want you to stop watching sad unhappy people YouTube , It’s not healthy . Things have never been better in Canada , cheers mate
Apparently further provincial layoffs targeted for as early as this week.
Thursty, I saw this widely followed real estate agents video today and he would disagree with you with respect to real estate in most of Canada and what will eventually happen in Victoria IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE45aKjDCJc
A good day for Canada, 73 cent dollar , excellent export report , and a great meeting with carney and trump. What a day for Canadas economy and particularly our real estate market . Go Canada go
This will probably trigger a few people here…ha ha
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/oak-bay-heat-pumps-1.7527049
I was the buyer’s agent on this purchase and yes it was a very good buy imo, unconditional offer (we did a pre-inspection) made a difference to the tune of six figures.
Even if you had 500k down on a $1.5 million purchase does it really make sense to put down 500k? If you put down 5% and pay the 55k CMHC premium you can get a mortgage rate 0.3 to 0.5% lower (and if this trend of lower interest rates for insured mortgages continues you could have this spread for 25 years) and when we are taking $1 million plus mortgages 0.3 to 0.5% is a decent amount saved every year on interest.
Then with the remainder of the $ you didn’t put down just max out your and your significant others TSFA, RSPS, etc. You are likely going to get a better return than 4% (insured mortgage interest rate) doing something simple like buying VFV and VDY etfs in your TSFA.
LMAO, give me some of the drugs you are taking Thursty!
The unobstructed city views are something to see.
Sorry Max but lagoon rd doesn’t cut it, looking over the water in south O.B is just something special. If u squint yours eyes u might think your in the south of France over looking the Mediterranean
Edgar , yep ass backwards lol
I think you got those house numbers mixed up. 1247 is the oceanfront Tudor style house that went for 1.3M
1247 beach got squished and a new house going up , it’s on a incline which means folks will putting the pedal down to get up the incline lol. 560 beach would have made a great English pub , I use to chat to the old fellow that lived there
3306 is ocean front, bare land with three sewer trunks installed along Lagoon Rd. She’d let it go for 1.8M. Zoning allows 3 duplex lots. I know her personally. 3310 is available as well ( I don’t know him).
.
Automation-bias is the tendency to trust computer-generated results without questioning them. Our society has become one that trusts an AI or machine learning algorithim over that of a human.
Marko- I didn’t realize that you could keep the insured mortgage rates after the renewal term. I’m assuming you would still be able to switch lenders and keep the insured rates? If so then that makes a huge difference.
Thursty-
The two properties I was talking about were 560 and 1247 beach drive that sold for 1.67 and 1.3M respectively. 560 beach sold for more than i remembered but the other one seems like a pretty good buy even if you assume it has to go down to the studs.
https://housesigma.com/bc/oak-bay-real-estate/560-beach-dr/home/jAXw7QwDJ8pYQOzg?id_listing=aQmD7zVMLnO7J9Bo
https://housesigma.com/bc/oak-bay-real-estate/1247-beach-dr/home/eQp5yO8awvJ7d0ZE?id_listing=K8OgYBp8Ld57JmG2
I’m guessing lots of improvements that don’t show up on b.c assessment . But maybe it’s just a market heating up with lower for longer interest rates
SFH on the Gorge just sold a couple of day ago for almost 100% over assessment. It is really worthless on an individual property.
It sounds as though assessed value is not often an accurate indicator of sale price, but something is way out of wack when a boxy 1901 SFD on a 550 sq ft footprint was just listed at 1.225 (50% above assessed value).
Edgar, tough to buy a decent ocean front on beach for less than 3 mil. Clunkers on beach that are basically a building lot are north of 1.5
Once again there is often a very large difference in rates between CMHC and uninsured and if you don’t re-finance you can keep the CHMC insurance for the whole amortization of the loan so that is 25 years of mortgage at a lower interest rate.
Now if they were to find a house in their dream neighbourhood that needs a lot of work i think it would make sense to buy now and then pay to have all the work done over the next few years then it would make sense. I don’t see a lot of oceanview/oceanfront houses in oak bay that would fit this bill but there are two that were listed on beach drive over the last year or so that come to mind- one listed for 1.45 and the other at I think 1.5 that were on the water or the other side of the road from the water but needed a tonne of work
I probably didn’t give enough info on why it doesn’t make sense (to me) to buy now instead of waiting .
2 couples both with a doctor that has somewhat recently finished their residency so income drastically increased. Household income >500k. Can easily save up the 20% down payment in the next year or so. Looking at houses for 1.5M in not their dream neighborhood because they feel like buying a house as early as possible is the right thing to do. Have said they want to be oceanfront/oceanview in oak bay and would likely upgrade within 2-3 years.
Between commissions, cmhc premiums, giving up your flexibility to make clean offers while trying to purchase a home in a neighbourhood they want to be in long term, etc i just think it makes way more sense to rent for another year. Then they can buy in a neighbourhood they could see themselves staying in long term
Why wouldn’t it make sense? If they can get the mortgage with the stress test then it already makes sense…
Leo, just curious why you mention the number of business days in the month? Most realtors and their clients are ready to write offers every day of the week. Only conveyancing is dependent upon business days and they’re nowhere near capacity at the moment.
There can be a large spread in interest rate so it isn’t a straight up 55k.
>.>. Even if the PS gets a crappy raise from the NDP, can’t see them switching to voting Cons en masse next time
Yes, it’s easier for the NDP to freeze wages and cutback expenses. The NDP supporters will stay silent, and the right will be happy. Also will be nice to watch as the NDP cleans up the deficit mess they created.
Is there any data that shows the number of homes being purchased between 1-1.5M with CMHC insurance? I have a couple friends that I went to university with that are looking to buy at ~1.5M with the minimum down payment but I just don’t see how the numbers make any sense. The market seems like it’s going to go sideways for a while and spending 55k on cmhc premiums seems like a huge cost to pay in exchange for getting into a house a bit earlier.
It would be easier for the government to negotiate a lower raise across the board than it would be for them to do an estoppel before bargaining begins and then try to get rid of retroactive raises to the union. I also don’t know if they could even do it for a variety of legal reasons and they would likely lose in arbitration but I also haven’t bothered to look at the language of the GEU contract so take that with a grain of salt
That’s typical past practice, but would potentially be a point of negotiation as well
Too soon.
Excluded raises are dead easy to put on ice. Government has zero legal obligation to increase them.
As for union raises – can’t see much happening there. Since the government is trying to save money without canning people, they might not be sad to see a few jump ship to other levels of government or the private sector. And the politics supports Eby taking a harder line. Even if the PS gets a crappy raise from the NDP, can’t see them switching to voting Cons en masse next time
My understanding is that provincial excluded have a salary range and they are increased within that salary range based on their performance but unless they under performed they at least get whatever the yearly union raise is. For CRD/municipal etc they usually have it in their contract to have guaranteed steps as well as getting the same percentage increase yearly as the union.
You may have heard that government workers have not got a yearly increase this year which is true for government, crd and municipal as their contracts are expired but whenever they settle on a new collective agreements they will receive retroactive raises back dated to the date the collective expired (assuming there is a raise). I do think the wage increases for bc government workers will be smaller than crd/municipal though.
There is no step raises for excluded according to my sources. They are dependent on how your performance is assessed by your manager, which frankly is what it should be. We have a lot of people from provincial government applying at my work so we have a fairly good understanding what their compensation and performance review processes are like.
I’m probably off base calling it “unprecedented”, but it’s certainly not typical.
It’s possible your information is that they’re paused for the time being. That could make sense. Excluded will typically be held at the prevailing rate until union negotiations are finished, which can be a lengthy period. Both excluded and union have step raises, but negotiations generally relate only to the rate of pay in each step. Employees typically move upwards through the steps regardless of whether there is a wage increase or freeze.
Source: lived in this town for too damn long.
Pretty sure that has happened…..
Don’t unions have those set step raises that still happen regardless of what happens to the over all range? I heard all compensation adjustments for excluded are paused. Also, I am not sure if excluded rates always follow union contracts, seems ridiculous but maybe you are right.
That’s convenient. Excluded rates follow contract negotiations for union employees and are typically set at the same amount. It would be peculiar (and potentially unprecedented) for the reverse to happen. Imagine excluded wages being frozen while union employees negotiate a 5% raise.
I am not talking about union.
I’m not sure their position will be as weak as it may seem given the other collective agreements that will be settled in the next few months. CRD is currently at the table as is the group of Oak Bay, North Saanich, Sidney, Esquimalt, and Metchosin. From what I’m hearing the employer side of things would take it as a win to settle on 3.5% raises with minimal increases to benefits. The comparable for recently settled agreements don’t bode well for employers given that Duncan settled at 5%, 5%, and COLA plus 2% and up island is just as high. If CRD and the other group of municipalities settle around 4% raises it will give the government employees something to at least get small raises I think
If flippers have been discouraged from buying properties needing work, then they will just sit on the market instead of being made saleable. Most buyers are intimidated by the slightest amount of work, they want instant gratification.
I definitely agree with this. Public sector employees will be in a weak position in terms of bargaining, and I think modest or no increase in wage is to be expected.
I still think it’s odd for VicREanalyst to write “apparently no raises this year”, when there has not even been a proposal to be voted on by the unions yet.
VicRE will cite insider contacts but I’d make the same conclusion just listening to the news:
All of this means union won’t be in a strong bargaining position and government won’t be compromise minded.
IIRC the budget did include a contingency for public sector negotiations, so some targeted increases are not off the table. But I’d expect broad-based increases to be near zero.
When sellers start listing properties without the usual polish—whether skipping repairs or leaving aesthetic upgrades undone—it could signal shifting market dynamics. In a hot market, sellers might not feel the pressure to invest in improvements because demand is strong enough that buyers will accept homes “as-is.” But if more lackluster properties are appearing, it might suggest a softening market where sellers are prioritizing speed over maximizing value.
Another possibility is that rising costs—like labor, materials, or borrowing rates—could be making renovations less feasible. Sellers might opt to list properties in their current state rather than taking on additional financial strain.
Insider contact. I am sure there’s others on hhv who can verify.
The HPI is designed to reflect broader market trends rather than being a precise tool for individual property valuation. Applying it to a single property could lead to misleading conclusions.
Similarily, the Sales to Assessment Ratio (SAR) is more reliable in homogeneous neighborhoods like Royal Bay. In areas where properties share similar characteristics, SAR tends to provide a stronger correlation, making it a useful indicator of market trends. Conversely, in more heterogeneous neighborhoods—where homes vary significantly in age, size, and lot dimensions—SAR has a wider distribution, meaning its applicability depends more on individual property characteristics.
Source?
Thing is when inventory is a 10 year high there is a greater absolute number of nice homes for buyers to buy which I think the skewing the numbers. Pretty much every single metric is showing SFH prices going up when what I see on the ground is base case scenario flat but possibly a bit of downward price pressure.
Overpriced and/or junk always seems to make up the bulk of the listings. Which kind of makes sense. Nice well priced stuff comes on to the market and is gone in days or weeks. Overpriced crap sits for months.
Plus the crap seems to get listed more often in the first place. Don’t have statistics to support this, but it kind of makes sense that suboptimal locations or problem houses are less long term than nice houses in solid locations
100% agree
Apparently no raises this year for bc government employees.
Month May May
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 89 763
New Listings 235 1,757
Active Listing 3,428 3,338
Thanks for doing this analysis….many sellers I have come across hoping for market to improve after the election.
My on the ground impression is buyers are simply buying nicer houses and the junk is sitting. HPI index does not adjust for “nice” and nicer houses tend to sell further above assessment on average; therefore, even if prices were down a bit if nicer places are selling you wouldn’t really see any signs in the relative to assessment metric, no?