Long run update

>.> Family, yes. That aside & politics aside, with a certain amount of money I’d consider moving to Hawaii or any other place where our long, dark winters aren’t even an issue (San Diego, Australia, NZ or?). In the summers, there’s nowhere else on the planet I’d rather be than right where we are. Of course, our winters are getting shorter with global warming…

Agreed. A compromise strategy is to remain in Canada, but spend the winters in those places. The advantage being you can travel to different interesting/sunny places each year.

@VicREanalyst – source? Are you referring to the health sector review?

Insider contact from my golf club. Didnt ask which sector, my understanding is all of government is under going review, not just the health ministry.

Looks like BC’s version of DOGE is underway and a couple of ADMs are the first casualties last week.

…>. Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s very few US buyers,

You haven’t quoted any reliable or recent data, so I don’t accept that it’s “very few US buyers” . The data you did quote was an old vreb survey from 2016. As I recall, you have admitted that you can’t rely on that verb survey because it’s a volunteer/optional survey done by some RE agents. And obviously 2016 is old data (pre-trump, pre-Covid)

If you look at better (statcan) data, as Ive posted below, you’ll see that US immigration numbers rose by 43% from 2016 to 2021 for example, and with the boom in immigration in 2022-24 they have risen farther than that. Which supports my belief that it is no longer “very few us buyers”. As of the 2021 census, 8.2% of immigrants to Victoria are USA born.

It should be interesting to hear Marko’s report on his USA clients.

Thanks for the discussion.

Marko- What are the American’s price range and time line, ie. how anxious are they to buy.

… 115 Americans per year buy in Victoria, or just over 1% of buyers.

The relevant number is not the total buyers, since most of them also sell and don’t have a net effect on “demand/ supply”

The important number is the total of net new buyers added to the market, that aren’t also selling an existing Victoria home. The 120 households per year added to Victoria by Americans is about 5% of total households added, and can move the market.

Especially if the added buyers are well-heeled and buying SFH in the core, since new SFH constructed have almost no growth in net supply. Adding 120/year to that buyer demographic can move the SFH market, as they’re all chasing the same houses that HHVers here are.

I’m not a fan of Florida. Lots of mosquitoes, ticks, cockroaches, ants, termites, various rodents, hurricanes, venomous snakes, alligators and high uv exposure.

Does Trump fall under the category of “cockroaches” or “rodents”? Asking for a friend.

Don’t forget pythons.

Look at what happened during the plandemic. Prices soared, I was completely amazed. Canadians, and other people from other countries will go out of their way to avoid government stupidity. My friends who bought property in the U. S. during the 2008 financial crisis sold them when Trump was first elected. Time is precious, boomers have less of it to wait for things to improve. I wouldn’t try to rebuild in California after the fires. I’m sure most insurance policies did not cover rebuilding to today’s standards, even if their policy stated “replacement”. Most come with a limit. Clean up costs, price of materials and labor are through the roof. Paradise lost.

We need as many buyers as we can to help pump real estate sales and prices

Thursty my dad said the open house in their hood seemed packed this weekend with lots of cars on the street. There are two very close to each other for what its worth.

If that is the case then I am not sure how you came to the conclusion that Victoria is a Plan B substitute..

I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about how well an internet troll understands how I reach my conclusions.

Yes. LOL. ROTFLMAO.

If that is the case then I am not sure how you came to the conclusion that Victoria is a Plan B substitute..

I also wouldn’t rule out Canadians ditching Florida real estate and moving here. Presumably they went to Florida to escape shitty Ontario and Quebec winters. Victoria might seem like a reasonable plan B.

LOL, have you been to Florida during the winter months?

Would be a great time to drop the foreign buyers tax . We need as many buyers as we can to help pump real estate sales and prices

>>…. Exactly as I predicted, Americans flocking to Canada

Agreed.

StatCan reports an increase of immigrants to Victoria (30%), and especially immigrants from USA. (+43%)

In the recent census (2021) . For immigrants to Victoria, there were total 2000/year and 166/year were from USA
That’s up 30% from previous census , and for USA immigrants it is up 43% from previous census . And since immigrant numbers have risen from 2021, it is expected to be higher now. Probably close to 250/year immigrants to Victoria from USA. Who need about 120 homes per year. If 2/3 of them buy/rent houses that’s a need for 80 SFH and that’s likely more than the net number of core SFH houses that we’re adding .
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/as-sa/fogs-spg/Page.cfm?lang=E&topic=9&dguid=2021S0503935

Thousands of Canadians live in California, many were affected by the fires and don’t want to wait 5 years to rebuild. Many of them were in the entertainment industry, coming back to Canada is always on their mind. I’m sure some can find exemptions to the foreign buyers tax.

Exactly as I predicted, Americans flocking to Canada. It will only take a few dozen to drive up prices in a smaller market like the Island. Also probably the reason expensive properties are moving. Everything is 40% on sale for them. Between the fires in California, and the Trump insanity, there’s no telling how many Americans are coming. And Marko is only one of 1600 agents.

Quick question: can you comment on the four year exclusion?

Yes, the 4 year exclusion does apply, but doesn’t get around the fact that you still have 2 units. (You can only have one principal residence at a time, so the suite, or your home.) It’s more of a tool for cases where you move and rent out your home, so that your home is still your principal residence even if you aren’t living there. So, say you need to move to Ottawa to be an MP for example, you can rent out your house but still get PRE for that house for 4 years after you move out.

No, you don’t need to file the form every year, only when “You sold, or were considered to have sold, your principal residence or any part of it”.

Victoria BC Real Estate Board

Month April April
Year 2025 2024
Net Unconditional Sales 264 679
New Listings 740 1,620
Active Listings 3,228 3,017

I am going to stick to my predictions from the previous week of 650 sales for the month.

A good indicator of the market is what I call the Marko Factor. Since Thursday afternoon he’s been silent. Why? He’s either in a bar in Croatia watching soccer or crazy busy doing real estate deals.

I have a number of clients here from the US which is making for long days in terms of showings. Would be really curious to see how many of 650 sales this month will be US origin (if people are wondering usually one partner has CND citizienship, or vacant land, or child has CND citizenship, etc.)

Anyone calling AI “A one” needs AI.

Saanich makes the top 10 “Best Places in Canada to Live for Families”, based on objective data (Feb. 2025) scoring from CoreLogic (Montreal-based).

https://wahi.com/ca/en/learning-centre/real-estate-101/buy/the-10-best-places-to-live-in-canada-for-families/

Car-Friendly Score: 4.1

Park Score: 4.2

Quiet Score: 4.0

Primary School Score: 4

High School Score: 3.5

Composite Score: 78%

Positioned on the southern tip of Vancouver Island, Saanich borders Vancouver’s capital, Victoria, and has the largest population on the island measuring nearly 32,000 square kilometres (or roughly half the size of Ireland). Outdoorsy types will likely appreciate Saanich’s beaches, gardens, trails, and gardens. It’s not in every community that the Pacific Ocean is your backyard. Being on an island, the city has a slower pace of life compared to the larger urban centres on this list, though meeting day-to-day needs shouldn’t be an issue in this city of approximately 117,000 residents.

Man that was a bad trip into the darkside of AI generative when researching “pandemic buyers remorse”.

To test a hypothesis by falsification means actively trying to prove it wrong rather than just looking for evidence that supports it.

-AI is friging evil.

Or as Trumps Education Secretary Linda McMahon calls it:

https://youtube.com/shorts/6QL0c5BbCR4?si=QuJk4NpNqrxMuYcw

Neither of the old studies you posted

The wahi survey took place in Canada in December 2023 – post-peak 2022 peak and post end of pandemic. It states that younger Canadians among the happiest about buying a home as approximately eight in 10 Canadians (79%) aged 18-34 who have purchased a home since 2019 say they have no regrets about the decision.

Canada’s market is pretty different from the US market so hard to make generalizations from the US to Canada. And probably the same re. Toronto vs. Victoria.

Opendoor survey done by Wakefield Research

This is a survey of US households. The Canadian links to surveys I posted do not reflect this – in fact the opposite in general. Our housing market is quite different.

There is nothing stopping someone from using the mute function and turning the forum into an echo chamber

There’s a difference between not wanting to hear from someone with different views, and not wanting to hear from someone with nothing relevant to say.

We are at the point that everyone is reading the data differently, there will be winners and losers going forward . Hindsight will be everything in the next 6/12 months imo

Many first-time home sellers who purchased during the pandemic now feel they made a mistake.

Where is the source of your data on this for the Victoria or Canadian market?

https://www.zolo.ca/blog/housing-market-pandemic
https://wahi.com/ca/en/learning-centre/real-estate-101/buy/wahi-2024-no-regrets-homebuyer-survey/

As of September 2024, the mortgage stress test does not apply to to borrowers switching lenders providing their loan amount and amortization does not change.

For first-time buyers, non federally regulated lenders are not required to apply a stress test.

Still seeing price decreases in home prices. And it isn’t just in condominiums. During the last week there has been 81 price decreases and only one price increase in the core districts. I’m doubtfull that we will experience any significant change in market prices for the April start of the Spring Market.

The downtown condo market this morning hit 215 listings which should put market conditions at the cusp of a balance and a buyers market for the second year in a row. Downtown condo Market prices seem to have returned to 2021 values. Down 15 percent from the peak during 2022.

Driven by the urgency to enter the housing market, they overlooked key financial realities—underestimating maintenance costs, repairs, inflation, and rising interest rates.

Rates currently are about 1% less than what buyers got stress tested at.

From what I was seeing Saturday is more than enough buyers for a well priced house

That’s a tautology.

Does anyone have any data showing where the people, who are selling, where they are going?
Are they rented houses going on the market or are they mostly owned by people living in them now and moving somewhere else to cash in?
(Hard to word all that properly with only one coffee under my belt.)

Ya bring on the selection, too many mediocre houses out there

Lots of new SFH listings on the market wow.

then the court will make its comments on how to estimate contributory value for basement suites and ADU’s.

I approached Langford and asked for permission to construct a garden suite in my backyard for the purpose of renting it out. I had professional drawings with plot plan etc…If the purpose of the garden suite was to be rented, sub-dividing my lot was a requirement. Since the lot is rather large they said it wouldn’t be an issue outside of the expense.

If the description is an accessory building with the purpose being a guest house…No problem. I had the building permit in hand within 7 business days. 100% fully insured under my $2400 annual house insurance policy. As far as CRA goes its just an accessory building.

I can easily enable the downvotes function but I didn’t because I’d rather have people explain why they disagree rather than just downvoting.

This rationale makes sense. I’d prefer we keep it the way it is.

I’m not always around to monitor comments though so I could add downvotes and have a comment be hidden when it receives like 5+ to have a way for people to moderate.

Please don’t. The “Mute” button is the elegant solution we already have for unpopular comments — and its best feature is that it’s optional.

Curious Cat, thanks for the comments above! Quick question: can you comment on the four year exclusion?

This is sort of embarrassing, but here’s another question. In filing taxes as a homeowner renting out a suite is there a form I’m supposed to file with CRA designating our home as PR each year (or at least the part we occupy)? I found the forms relevant in the year that we sell but the wording of the guidance you quoted sounds like a year by year designation.

I could add downvotes and have a comment be hidden when it receives like 5+ to have a way for people to moderate

This all seems a overly complex when the mute function is a simpler way to avoid the one person here “who intentionally antagonizes others online by posting inflammatory, irrelevant, or offensive comments or other disruptive content.”

Back to smiling and nodding. Have a nice sunny day.

I sure do, you glued to Fox?

a central banker twice over would realistically want to be playing with the bond market.

Perceived risk in the US raises the amount of interest on bonds. The US risk rate has increased so bond rates increased. This devalues existing bonds with lower rates. Governments might sell off US bonds if they perceive risk rising – or for other reasons. Canada sold off a load of US bonds in January – as did Japan and China last quarter. And then there are individuals buying/selling and institutions. I don’t believe Carney was responsible – trump was – he has raised risk and the cost of his own government’s debt.

Jesus, what a complete fucking clown show.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/12/tech/trump-electronics-china-tariffs/index.html

is overflowing with praise for Carny engineering the crash of the US bond market that forced Trump to back off on tariffs. Claims that it was a carefully orchestrated scheme lead by Canada and coordinating other major countries. Not sure how factual it is but if true, a major endorsement for Carny’s abilities. Certainly right up his alley and square in his area of expertise

I also don’t believe this to be true, but my concern would be that since it might be a conspiracy theory, it’s just the kind of thing to come across Trump’s desk & how does one think he would react. What little faith I have in Carney actually lies in the fact that he seems to have gotten Trump to sort of put things with Canada into a box pending the outcome of the election & follow-on CUSMA renegotiation. Given how precarious Canada’s position is, I would sure hope Carney wouldn’t risk it by being some machiavellian mastermind orchestrating a direct pressure tactic like this, nor do I think a guy who’s been a central banker twice over would realistically want to be playing with the bond market.

Leo, how is an individual to redeem oneself with this mute function? I would like to apologize to totoro, my cries fall upon deaf ears. Your blog has up votes, it would be nice to have down votes. For behavioural compliance…Ten down votes and your in the hole for a week (no comments for 7 days) as apposed to a mute forever.

totoro, maggie, just jack…I apologize, I didn’t fact check Carney’s quote.

I’m hopeful the world will stop listening and reacting to his every word.

When I was younger, going through the 2008 GFC. My boss told me…If everyone would just stop talking about it, it will go away. There were excavated underground parcade holes in the ground that became duck ponds and sat for years. Half built out SFH subdivisions were boarded up with plywood covering all windows and doors…For years.

This was in the CRD only 17 years ago! Do not think this can’t happen again! Do not over extend yourself on a house if you can’t afford living in it for 10-15-20 years! If you buy anything strata…May god be with you! Look what’s happening with HOA down in the states.

Patrick, yah talk about a self inflicted dumpster fire . Nothing has been achieved with trumps tariffs, a real loser economic policy . I’m hopeful the world will stop listening and reacting to his every word .

Max- Exactly, with AI and robots taking over we’ll only be enslaved to provide electricity to our new lords. The more people chained to treadmills the more robots we can power. A robot resembling Elon will be our Emperor.

The divide in this Country is so thick, you could cut it with a knife.

It will take a few days for people to figure out what exactly happened.

What happened IMHO (and I’m not being original) is that the world is losing confidence in the US as a safe haven. The rest is just details.

The source for that YouTube video is the same article that Maggie found – namely a blogger named Dean Blundell.

Even Blundell’s article says that Japan and the EU hold a lot more U.S. bonds than Canada. But the guy implies that Carney orchestrated it as part of his trip to Europe. That may or may not have any truth to it, but either way, I don’t see any reason to think Dean Blundell would have any reliable sources for that claim. I don’t think Japan and the EU need Carney to tell them that it’s time to push back against the cretins running the American government.

I’m seeing a lot of open houses this weekend and with sales running alittle hotter than last year maybe the spring market is just beginning . Marko just needs to keep bringing the great news on the higher end of the market everyone luvs to hear about .

Ya just conspiracy theories , it’s all rubbish , the internet is full of hyperbole. I would agree that the only people trump is raking over the coals is his fellow Americans.

.

Back in 2016 we discussed on HHV of getting a tax interpretation. Well lucky for us, someone did that already! Here is a link for those that want to read it for themselves: https://taxinterpretations.com/cra/severed-letters/2024-1007731e5 (Apologies, I don’t comment often enough to remember how to hyperlink.)

This was published July 26, 2024 so very recent.

Of note is the following paragraph:
“In general, if two housing units can be enjoyed and ordinarily inhabited separate from each other without access to the other (that is, if each unit is a self-contained unit with its own entrance, kitchen and bathroom), in our view, they will be considered separate housing units for purposes of the PRE. This may be the case notwithstanding the fact that the housing units are part of a single structure or are not on separate legal lots. That being said, as stated, each housing unit must be ordinarily inhabited by the taxpayer or one of the above-mentioned persons to qualify as the taxpayer’s principal residence for a given year, in addition be being designated as such.”

Also :”if the Homeowner filed a subsection 45(2) election, they would only be able to claim the PRE on one of the housing units as permitted by the Act, not the entire Property.”

Also: “Concerning the PRE, the Secondary Suite will generally not be considered to be a principal residence of the Homeowner since it is a separate housing unit that will generally not meet the ordinarily inhabited requirement as it continues to be rented. However, as explained previously, the PRE will still be available in respect of the portion of the Property that the Homeowner continues to reside in (that is, their primary residence), provided the relevant conditions in the principal residence definition continue to be met. ”

And finally: “In general, if two housing units can be enjoyed and ordinarily inhabited separate from each other without access to the other (that is, if each unit is a self-contained unit with its own entrance, kitchen and bathroom), it is our view they will generally be considered separate housing units for purposes of the PRE. This may be the case notwithstanding the fact that the housing units are part of a single structure or are not on separate legal lots. Accordingly, only one unit will be eligible for designation as the taxpayer’s principal residence for any particular year. An exception to this general view might apply in a situation where it can be demonstrated that the two units are sufficiently integrated (both structurally and usage) and as such, are being used for the exclusive use and enjoyment of the taxpayer and their family (that is, the two units are being used together and are functioning as one single family residence).”

Further to the discussion on suites, I did a little more research to see if there was a newer court case than Boulet, and could not find one. Some legislative changes only happened recently however. As a result of Bill C-30, Budget Implementation Act, 2021, No.1, S.C 2021, c 23 which was enacted on June 29, 2021, elections under subsection 45(2) or (3) can now be made where there is partial change in use of a property. For clarity, 45(2) is going from PRE to income producing, and 45(3) is going from income producing to PRE. Before this legislative change, prior to March 19, 2019, the elections could not be made for partial change, only for complete change in use. The Income Tax Folio S1-F3-C2 was not updated to reflect this until January 30, 2024. My point here is that just because CRA hasn’t gone after people with suites, does not mean they won’t. They can, and they might. When they get around to it. They are very slow.

Regarding the section on Partial changes in use, ¶2.57 applies where the partial change in use of the property is substantial and of a more permanent nature, that is, where there is a structural change. Examples where this occurs are … the conversion of a portion of a house into a self-contained domestic establishment for earning rental income (a duplex, triplex, etc.)… It goes on in ¶2.59 to cite that oft-repeated paragraph that everyone likes to point to:
It is the CRA’s practice not to apply the deemed disposition rule, but rather to consider that the entire property retains its nature as a principal residence, where all of the following conditions are met:
a) the income-producing use is ancillary to the main use of the property as a residence;
b) there is no structural change to the property; and
c) no CCA is claimed on the property.

This is where people start to argue points a) and b), because c) is very easy to avoid. But the next sentence immediately gives an example of how to meet these conditions. “These conditions can be met, for example, where a taxpayer carries on a business of caring for children in the home, rents one or more rooms in the home, or has an office or other work space in the home which is used in connection with business or employment. ”

The real issue is whether or not your suite or garden suite is a separate housing unit ordinarily inhabited by you, your spouse (or common-law partner), former spouse (or common-law partner) or child. (So build that garden suite for your kids, but not your elderly parents.) Even if a person inhabits a housing unit only for a short period of time in the year, this is sufficient for the housing unit to be considered ordinarily inhabited in the year by that person.

I will continue in another comment to break up the wall of text, but my interpretation of the 33 pages of IT Folio S1-F3-C2 is that the normal Victoria rented basement suite with separate entrance, kitchen, bathroom would be subject to CG and the PRE does not apply to that portion.

red carpet and complimentary hors-d’œuvres

Agree! Also – streamline the accreditation assessment for, for example, US physicians.

Also attracting best and brightest is good. Setting up degree mills to exploit international students is bad.

Exactly. Policy needs to be more targeted. And we are missing a huge opportunity right now to increase the attractiveness and international rating of our higher education accredited institutions. Unbelievable that the US administration is deliberately destroying its own and setting back science for decades.

>>… >Predictable growth rate so that developers and governments can plan. Whatever we decide, let’s set policies to match so overall growth is as steady as possible.

Except we aren’t getting predictable growth rate.., Just look at the government forecasts for population growth. (Dark green bars on the chart below)
They swing to NEGATIVE for 2025-26 and a meager 0.8% in 2027.
If I was a developer looking at that, sure it would help me plan, and I’d plan to build nothing until population growth picks up in 2028 or so.

https://economics.td.com/ca-popping-population-bubble

“Any way you slice it, population growth will decelerate sharply. The federal government’s projections show modestly negative population growth (-0.2%) over the next two years before flipping back to positive territory in 2027 (0.8%).”

>>… There was nothing good about a policy that swings growth rate from 1% to 3% and back to 0% within just a few years.

Of course that was good, we rebounded from COVID… hurray!

The fluctuation was because of COVID, where there multi-year backlogs to be worked through post-COVID. So low growth (1%) during COVID, and higher growth (3%) post COVID. to catch up. That’s not a reason to permanently reduce Canada’s long term growth rate. Some projections I’ve seen on HHV show Canada’s population showing no growth or possibly falling population.

> I think the reforms are just starting to kick in.

And what “good things” are you expecting to see now that we are planning to reduce NPR numbers?

For example, will this help with “build, build, build!”?

>>… The uncontrolled non permanent resident intake was bad policy and I’ve said as much several times.

The NPR numbers haven’t actually fallen. YOY they are up 10%, from 2.7 million (q1 2024) to 3.0 million (q1 2025)
I’m happy to see those numbers, as I consider the “bad policy” to be deciding NPR numbers based on housing (without any evidence that reducing their numbers would significantly lower housing costs). I happen to think rising NPR and population in general is good for the country and good for housing too, as it leads to developers building.

Fewer new housing units will get built if population is falling. As well as other negatives for the economy in general.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710012101

You shouldn’t keep censoring postings that you disagree with. It’s unprofessional. Is there a posted terms of service that is violated? No.

Glad I won’t be around in 2100, feel sorry for anyone living here or for that matter, anywhere.

Jordan Peterson

https://youtube.com/shorts/CEEHjtVJHYs?si=YYZbQN9w60HzqZem

[deleted comment about dire wolves]

I just remembered the mute button. 🙂

This is a direct quote from Carney’s book.

Complete and utter lie. Why do you feel entitled to slander people and where are you getting your news from? Clearly you have a problem with fact-checking. This is stated NOWHERE in the book and does not reflect his written statements.

While Mr. Carney served as Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, a period of broader global slowdown following the 2008 financial crisis and were further exacerbated by political events such as the 2016 Brexit referendum, which created significant economic uncertainty. The Bank of England’s role is to maintain inflation and financial stability—not to directly control growth or living standards. In fact, many economists credit Carney with providing calm and steady leadership during highly turbulent times.

Who you vote for is up to you but at least learn out how discern the truth and don’t trust every post you read. Even worse, don’t repost until you check. Easy to do with snopes and google – even chatgpt will help you out most likely.

critical reviews

I can understand why.

Carney was governor of the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020 — a period during which the U.K. experienced a notable decline in growth, living standards and productivity.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/brits-warn-canadas-new-prime-minister-has-reverse-midas-touch

“Reverse Midas touch -The tendency to ruin or destroy any object or task at hand”.

Max, nah all good lol

This is a direct quote from Carney’s book.

No, it’s a direct quote from bullshit on social media which you swallowed with mindless credulity, since it’s what you wanted to believe.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/canada-mark-carney-western-society/

Max, good stuff but I really don’t think too hard about things outside my immediate circle, so it’s lost on me. But good on you for wanting to engage in social issues.

Max, thank u , I had a chance to listen to it and well it’s just conspiracy theories , good for entertainment but nothing more.

US Bond yields rising despite a big stock sell off, and falling inflation numbers. This is what made Trump and his insiders “yippy and afraid”.

FWIW, this guy says it isn’t just China that’s dumping U.S. treasuries. And as a disclaimer, I know little about Dean Blundell, or what his sources are.

https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/carneys-checkmate-how-canadas-quiet

Ya unless it’s the exact property they want.

Some of the sales this week been on the market a very long time and I wouldn’t say buyers got a huge amount of asking (for properties in this price bracket) or that the most recent listing was substantially less than previous listings.

Luxury market activity possibly Americans? $5 million is only $3.5 million in real money.

U don’t need to be in all cash to buy a 5 mil house . If u have a net worth of 10 /15 mil then your shuffling the deck to make a purchase

Just super odd that this segment of the market wakes up as the stock market tanks

I would imagine most (or all) of these buyers would have their housing funds in cash more recently if they knew they were looking to buy. Would be pretty risky to leave your funds in the market up until the week you plan to buy – especially with Trump in. My guess is just coincidence in timing.

@VicRE – no purchase yet, gonna see about looking at a couple more this weekend… hopefully soon!

I would have thought people would wait for this to settle out before dropping $5 million.

Ya unless it’s the exact property they want.

US Bond yields rising despite a big stock sell off, and falling inflation numbers. This is what made Trump and his insiders “yippy and afraid”.

It’s an interesting thing to watch. So far luxury sales are up substantially over same period 2024 but still down substantially from 2022 levels. 38 sales so far over $2.5M vs 19 same period last year, vs 56 same period 2022 and 41 in 2021

Are they getting good value though?

Marko, good to c the higher end is heating up, I myself thinks trumps tariffs are toast and going forward they will be less of an economic factor on housing as Canadians start blowing him off

Another $5 million sale today (over asking price, must have had multiple offers). It would appear that the high-end market responds well to uncertainty in the stock market.

Poilievre says he’ll pay cities to lower “homebuilding taxes”

PP is refering to development cost charges when he says “homebuilding taxes” He’s promising up to $25,000 per dwelling in addition to his GST exemption on up to 1.3 million.

If he keeps this up then they should take the word “conservative” out of their party name. He’s acting more like a crack whore liberal.

The governments can put money into reducing building costs but what they can’t change is what people pay for a house which is it’s market price. Reducing costs does not mean that market prices will come down.

research groups do not have a large “war chest”

Yeah. Big limitation at the PhD level and budgets overall have already had a big hit from international student tuition loss.

My point is that we should make Canada attractive for high paying undergraduate students attending strong accredited public institutions. The US is devalued now created a market gap. Where vacancy rates have risen or new student housing has been built maybe time to make some visa policy changes.

“At the undergrad level international students pay huge fees – it’s a profit centre that subsidizes public costs. Government should welcome these students at public universities”

This has been happening. But it’s also more complicated than that. Provincial governments saw increased international tuition revenues as an opportunity to cut back on their own funding to universities. As a result, universities have to rely on international student tuition — it’s not a bonus but part of the base budget. With the drop in international enrollment since the pandemic, universities are now in deep financial trouble.

If you have a mass sale of bonds, that means people are losing confidence in the U.S. economy, on the ability to do deals with us,” Gasparino said. Those markets were imploding last night.

Yes. I also read somewhere this morning that some of that mass sale of treasuries may have been triggered deliberately by China to send a message.

On individual properties that have sold, the Sales to Assessment Ratio will vary from the median SAR. The best that one may use the SAR for is as a cross check to a sale price to determine if the sale price is fair and equitable relative to recent sales in the neighborhood. If the property recently sold within plus or minus five percent of the assessed value the sale price would therefore be fair and equitable and by extension so would the property taxes paid.

If it sold outside of the five percent range then there should be a reason such as recent improvements, property is neglected, etc. or the property sold under circumstances such as a foreclosure, delayed listing marketing scheme, estate sale, etc. That could result in a change in the future property taxes to be paid if the owner does not appeal their assessment.

Oil (wti crude) below $60, lowest since 2021.

The real reason the tariffs got dropped and Trump folded faster than one of his Trump ties. Respected financial reporter Charlie Gasparino describing the “terrifying” and “imploding” US bond market that was seen last night.

https://www.salon.com/2025/04/09/getting-yippy-says-he-reversed-on-tariffs-because-people-were-afraid/

“ While many conservative commentators lined up to congratulate Trump on his supposedly masterful gambit, others pointed out that Trump’s hand was likely forced by economic disarray. Fox Business correspondent Charlie Gasparino told his rah-rah colleagues to tone down the celebration of Trump’s deal-making. Gasparino said that Trump “capitulated” because of terrifying indicators in the market.

“To tell you right now that Donald Trump outsmarted the world,” Gasparino said, “that’s not really what happened here.”

Though Trump has said that countries are “kissing [his] ass” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made mention of deals with 75 countries, Gasparino splashed some cold water on the idea of Trump as a master strategist. Noting that the Trump White House has never been shy about announcing made deals, the reporter pointed a finger at the bond market as the real impetus behind Trump’s 180.

“If you have a mass sale of bonds, that means people are losing confidence in the U.S. economy, on the ability to do deals with us,” Gasparino said. “Those markets were imploding last night.”

Sounds like they’ll be renegotiating USMCA after the election, with an idea to preserving free trade and increasing trade

I seem to recall that happening during his first term. Face it, to Orange a treaty is just a piece of paper, as someone once put it.

Today’s market rally compared to previous monster rallies.

JFK got offed by the Mafia for less.

The 90-day pause on tariffs is good news

The 90-day pause is only for the reciprocal tariffs, not the 10% baseline tariff for all countries. The 25% tariff for Canadian goods not covered by CUSMA is not subject to the pause.

I guess the mortgage hunters get to watch the 5 year bonds taking off again

China is at 125% tariff.

Americans may not be super impressed with this when they go to get their new iphones?

UBC also targeting US students right now.

Yeah, saw that. One of our kids has a phd offer from UBC. The prof let him know that they are currently receiving a huge number of applications from the US – including from early career US stem researchers who are uncertain about the future of science in the US. France has also opened a special application process – probably other countries too.

I’m also talking about regular international undergrads who pay 3x plus the fees. That is an opportunity for Canada that we have curtailed.

I think Trump and the administration surrounding him are the worst. Bullying, reactionary, rude, capricious, illogical, uneducated and vindictive. They are devaluing America, not making it great again. Their tariff policy is nonsense. They have a point with illegal immigration but not the brutal way they are going about it where non-criminals don’t get sent to their home countries, but to the worst prison in the world, and some of them mistakenly so.

The chances of a recession are way up in the US and the damage to universities, tourism, and trading relationships is extreme. Even worse, the undermining of the rule of law, institutions, and the likely personal profiteering of elected officials is likely to hasten to the decline of the empire.

Some outlets are reporting that bookings for air travel from Canada to the US are down 70%. I can only imagine how many international students have rejected offers this year and how many more full-freight paying international students will not apply going forward. The stories of the detainment and deportation of tourists for very minor issues are enough to create international travel avoidance going forward. I don’t want to cross the border.

Canada should be shifting its policy on international students even if they limit this path to residency imo. There is an opportunity right now to create revenue for universities and benefit from the best and the brightest who are no longer going to the US. I understand housing concerns, but with all the new purpose built rentals maybe there should be some leeway given the economic and intellectual benefit and the increased vacancy rate.

Also, FWIW I think that in my lifetime we will see an upper end tax on primary residence capital gains. Where else does government have to go for money and why should an 800k gain in five years be tax exempt?

Bobby k , I’m really not a market guy, I happily hand my money over and let the next guy run with it . I think your knowledge of the market is far beyond my skills . I trust your finding a way to make some though

Thursty, I think people will be relived rather than happy, we are now back to last Thursday values and a balanced etf is still down 4.5% YTD and growth etf down around 7% (before the rest of the world opens), look for the tailwind from a declining C$ to now be a headwind and a drag on your US/CAD exposure, you may want to hedge half your exposure.

That home looks to be 52 Maquinn st and and is on one of my running route, i’m sure the happiest people will be the next door neighbours who bought at a low price in 2021, the next door home was built at the same time and has changed hands 3 times in 4 years with the first 2 owners showing no gain in value. Looks like 52 Maquinna had an annual rate of return of about 5% over the 8 years owned or 4.5%/year after transfer tax and real estate fees, which is about the long term average of inflation plus 2%. We looked at a newer build there over 10 years ago when our children were small, cute park but it can be very cold and a bit out of the way for our tastes.

Not bad for a local professional couple who played the property ladder game over the course of 10 years. Next door will be lower value due to lot and smaller sqft inside.

Wow, dow up almost 2000 points , good stuff

FWIW, here’s what I posted ~2 years ago after I stopped renting out my basement suite:

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2023/05/08/has-the-rental-market-peaked/#comment-101335

“High-end sales continue to pile on this week. A newer build property without a suite sold in Oak Bay this morning $2.85 million. It was purchased in 2017 for $1.9 million so there is >$800k tax free profit after expenses.”

–

That home looks to be 52 Maquinn st and and is on one of my running route, i’m sure the happiest people will be the next door neighbours who bought at a low price in 2021, the next door home was built at the same time and has changed hands 3 times in 4 years with the first 2 owners showing no gain in value. Looks like 52 Maquinna had an annual rate of return of about 5% over the 8 years owned or 4.5%/year after transfer tax and real estate fees, which is about the long term average of inflation plus 2%. We looked at a newer build there over 10 years ago when our children were small, cute park but it can be very cold and a bit out of the way for our tastes.

I am hedging my portfolio for a a further drop after the usual oversold bounces in the martket and slowly dollar cost averaging back into the market on down days after having sold most of my portfolio in January for tax planning purposes and i am now about 85% back in, this has been a stroke of good luck as timing the market is almost impossible and almost always due to luck, the trick isn’t selling it’s how to get back in, this is where experience counts and you need to turn off your emotions. I find it best to give myself the exact same advice that I would give clients rather than trying to be cute, if you can’t check your emotions you will not be a successful investor. Expect that when you buy the market will go down further and that is why your almost always best to leg into the market in tranches.

What trump is doing is either brilliant in calling other countries bluff or reckless, stupid and I assume it’s the latter and he has early sign of dementia and how can you predict what someone like that will do and he is also a narcissistic a sore loser and a poor businessman who will take down the world economy rather than backdown. Prepare for everything at this point and and protect your FU money as even if we get a quick resolution to this (i don’t expect that) it may be too late to avoid a recession. There is also the chance the world could gang up and sell US debt and screw the US economy and housing market.

“out of great failure, creatures great opportunity”

This just in, looks like trump has caved I’m sure due to internal pressure, and called a 90 day pause to many countries, as stated above prepare for everything, look at this huge reversal as a chance to reduce equity if needed.

Good to c the Dow is up , I’m hopeful we will get past the tariff rubbish in the coming week and get back to business, and that is the business of buying houses. Good to c some higher end sales in O.B , it warms my heart

Lastly, with COVID, we noticed massive delays in everything CRA related (it’s almost like working from home was bad for productivity or something…I know there’s lots of opinions on that..). I bring this up to say that things are only getting caught up now.

I had a CRA audit last year (or year before losing track) and whenever I spoke to my CRA agent there was dog barking in the background.

Another question: Leo claimed earlier (on the basis of his discussions with a CPA in 2020) that the structural changes condition is interpreted in such a way that if you, as a homeowner with a suite, made changes during your tenure as homeowner to put in the suite OR if it was done earlier before you took possession, either way it counts as structural changes to the property. Is that consistent or discrepant with the professional instruction you’ve received? Thanks!

Thanks Salmon Hunter!

Something that would be really helpful I think is to have data on what CRA considers ancillary and does not. Perhaps such data does not exist though.

Hey everyone, I’m a CPA and thought I would put in a few comments on the basement suite vs. garden suite discussion.

The principle residence deduction is complicated. The core concept is reasonably straight forward; income producing = capital gains on that portion. However, there are exceptions and mixed uses and that make it complicated (mixed use means partial income producing and partial personal use). I’ve put in some links below if you want to read about them. Tax rules often provide fuzzy lines instead of clear cut rules (for example, there is nothing written that states the point at which a secondary suite that is rented on a periodic basis loses it’s designation as the principal residence).

Garden suite vs. attached to the main structure should not, in theory, have any effect on your claim to the principal residence. However, in the real world, I don’t think people add garden suites unless there is good rental income available on that suite. If your aging parents moved into a garden suite and then it was vacant when they left (perhaps your kids used it when they came to visit). You’d have a shot at claiming it was part of the main residence (and therefore eligible for the capital gains exemption).

Just because you don’t see people paying the tax, doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. I see a lot of non-compliance out there. We’ve had to put a policy in place in my firm regarding what we will/won’t file on a tax return due to how common the non-compliance is. In my experience, people brag only when they get away with not paying the tax. No one brags about how they just paid 100k+ to the CRA due to an audit. The CRA has a massive program out there to find tax non-compliance in the real estate world. Link is below.

CRA links:
Audit program: https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/programs/about-canada-revenue-agency-cra/compliance/does-canada-revenue-agency-address-non-compliance-real-estate-sector.html