March: Uncertainty continues to drag on market
March numbers are in, and the slow weakening of the market continues. We’ve gone from a 60% increase in year over year sales in October as buyers took advantage of lower rates, to now only a 4% increase in March. At the same time new listings and inventory are both up about 14% from this time last year, meaning the market is actually slightly softer.
I will note that Victoria is being hit less than other parts of the province. In February, our residential sales were up 10% while overall sales in BC were down 10%. Meanwhile inventory was up 11% in Victoria, but jumped 28% in BC as a whole. The hardest hit region right now is the Fraser Valley, where sales were down a whopping 27%.
Source: BCREA
Charting all sales together, the air has come out of the fall surge completely, and we’re back down to sales levels we saw for most of the first half of last year. Still up from where we were in the last true buyers market of a dozen years ago, but well below (21% to be exact) the 10 year average.
By category, all property types are similarly affected, though condo sales were actually up 14% from last March.
In the fall I pointed out that entry level detached inventory under a million was falling rapidly as lower rates improved affordability and brought back demand. However with a more cautious consumer, that segment of the market has actually been quite weak, with sales down 20% this year compared to last, and inventory again up over the previous year..
Inventory is growing in nominal terms but also faster than would normally be expected for this time of year. That means the seasonally adjusted trend remains positive, continuing the path we saw in February.
New listings are still high, and we’re actually hitting a time of strong mortgage renewals when those 5 year mortgages at around 2% or lower start coming to the end of their term. That will continue for the next 18 months or so and likely will mean an approximate rate doubling for most borrowers. Though listings are elevated, I don’t think a substantial portion are actually the result of rate stress, so I don’t think this will move the market too much. However it does further dampen household enthusiasm for a lot of consumer spending and will likely put some positive pressure on new listings and inventory.
In terms of pricing, the medians actually came in relatively high in March, with both detached and condos trending upwards in the 3 month averages. However that may be partially a change in sales mix, with fewer entry-level sales.
Sales to assessed value changes in March were mixed, with detached down 2% from February’s result while condos and townhouses were up by 1% relative to February. Call it still pretty flat.
Months of inventory continues to increase (indicating a weakening market) and the sales to new list ratio fell (also indicating weakening).
I haven’t posted my market gauge for a long time, since the old one using just months of inventory was giving overly optimistic readings. However the new methodology using normalized MOI and SNLR ratios is a lot more accurate as a measure of the market right now, and it indicates market balance the cool side of balanced. As a point of reference, in October this was solidly in sellers market territory (history here).
Will be interesting to see where the market goes from here. I suspect it will stabilize near these levels or slightly cooler and we’re probably in for higher inventory levels and a flatter market for some time to come. Good news for affordability which should continue to improve as rates drift downwards.
Flight bookings for the summer can-us down 70%
https://www.oag.com/blog/canada-us-airline-capacity-aviation-market
Only works if you are a builder imo. Anyone contracting out is going to be better off stress and cost-wise just buying a finished home, especially if high end prices drop further.
I give up.
Frank , good to hear you’re holding on to your real estate.
I’ve noticed that as well Leo S. Vancouver and the Fraser Valley mostly work in unison as they are substitute markets.
The Victoria market may just be lagging a month or two behind the mainland.
Thursty- Read carefully, I said equities not real estate. Do we need a reading comprehension test?
1 bed condo sales in the first quarter of 2025
Downtown Vancouver: down 73%
Victoria: up 13%
Very different markets region to region right now.
+1, that is what I would worry about going 5 SFHs versus luxury home.
For those that are savvy another way to play the system is to buy a lot, build a luxury home and add value to the property that way, and then have it as your principal residence.
A builder has to pay tax on the added value (profit) but if it is your principal residence, you are off the hook.
The stuff the administration pulls would get most people fired or their business would suffer. Imagine if someone else posted “Trump Gaza” AI and said the things he has just involving that particular topic….but seems people are okay when he does it?
Frank, Soooo you’re selling real estate today to buy back tomorrow when the big crash comes . I like it , I think there’s a few folks out there with the same plan , I just don’t know if history is on your side.
In reality I’m extremely optimistic. Optimistic that the reality of a crash is going to give me the opportunity to cash in big time on massively undervalued equities now that I’ve got the dry powder to employ thanks to liquidating some real estate assets. Best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.
One of the things people complain about is that new (market) builds are expensive whether for rental or for sale. But we need to build new stuff now so it can be the cheap run down housing for 2075 or 2100 🙂
Maybe, but that is not a move that most people with significant equity to invest will make and you need to live somewhere. Most people with this level of equity have reached a point where they are looking for less work and more lifestyle. A fancy primary residence ticks this box. And the tax free aspect can’t be ignored – capital gains taxes are likely to come back on investment properties at higher inclusion rates.
For someone with enough to pay for a luxury home outright and pay for cost of living it is not a bad long term move imo.
Yeah, I think it’s debatable if you’re better off buying a luxury property or 5 average single family lots. Very likely the 5 lots are a better investment given rental returns, future development potential, etc , but they’re not really comparable. One is your house, the other is buying into a RE investment business.
I’m not sure that I agree. You have to live somewhere and these people are also getting the lifestyle benefit if it is a primary residence. This makes it appealing to someone who wants to live in Victoria and enjoy their luxury home day to day while hopefully seeing it appreciate long-term tax free at an eventual rate that matches the after tax return of the money invested in the stock market minus shelter value. When the high end goes up it can go up pretty fast. Agree it might not happen for 10 years. As far as being illiquid, this only matters if you have to sell – just like it does with stocks.
I try not to pay much attention but one of the disturbing things is how the administration has dropped all societal norms for professionalism. Last Trump term they were doing lots of questionable stuff but generally still communicated professionally. Now every arm of the government is run by partisan hacks that issue press releases that sound like they’re written by teenagers on a gaming forum. Official press releases like “We’re firing 100 woke scientists lol cry harder libs”. Official white house account posting memes making fun of people being deported. Just crazy stuff.
Except homes at that price point are very illiquid and sometimes the value don’t move for 10+ years. If someone wanted a store of value in RE in Victoria, those homes certainly are not the right product.
Not according to the commercial realtors in town….
A few things. From the article:
“To provide this level of density and to ensure higher profits, developers have favoured demolition over preservation or conversion of existing buildings”
This is really an artifact of our current restrictive zoning, and should improve with the more permissive zoning called for in the OCP. Right now, the only place that anyone can build multifamily is where multifamily exists. That means we are maximizing for displacement because if you want to build an apartment you need to first demolish the existing one. To minimize displacement, we need to make it easy to build multifamily on single family or low density lots where displacement is minimized. Add a tenant assistance policy and it becomes doubly preferential to build on single family lots rather than tearing down older multifamily.
Of course eventually every building needs to be replaced, so we can’t make it impossible to replace them. One of the best ways to make displacement less traumatic is to have a housing abundance so people can find a place if their apartment is being rebuilt.
“Research shows that Canada lost 10 affordable units for every new one built over a decade.”
The units weren’t “lost” per se, the rent just increased beyond a set threshold ($750 in the studies I’ve seen). This happens with low rental vacancy, i.e. housing shortage.
“Meanwhile, the need for affordability, especially non-market rentals, remains unaddressed.”
Honestly the City of Victoria has been doing pretty ok on non-market projects. So I don’t agree with this one. More funding would lead to more projects, and having by-right zoning actually helps a lot. Often below-market housing is stuck in a loop where they can’t get zoning approval without funding and can’t get funding without zoning approval.
As for land value I didn’t see it specifically addressed in this article. However in general I think people are confused about land value and how it relates to zoning. They look at the value of a plot of land that is zoned for single family, see that’s relatively low, and then compare it to high values of land zoned for multifamily and conclude that zoning causes land values to rise. This isn’t really true and land value is driven by the demand for that piece of land based on the demand for housing at that location. Yes it can be artificially driven downwards by restrictive zoning and manufactured scarcity because the barriers to getting high density zoning approved lead to a shortage of properties zoned for multifamily. But keeping land value low through zoning doesn’t help anyone build affordable housing because it’s only true if that housing is never actually built. By broadly allowing multifamily housing, the artificial scarcity is lessened and the impact on land values is much lower than if lots were upzoned one by one as is currently the case. I did talk about some of those issues here: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2023/11/27/land-lift/
Are you sure you’re not a pessimist?
I’ve heard from other people that people they know are down millions in 2 days. My friend was down $118,000, another friend of a friend, $500,000. It’s not pretty, luckily today rebounded, probably a dead cat bounce. If this continues everything will be affected. Jobs, sales, real estate, nothing is safe. I wouldn’t worry about a recession, I’d worry about a depression.
Marko, I’m guessing they do have a lot of they’re money in the market and the blip we are seeing now wouldn’t slow down they’re plans to buy a new pad
Vicre, just had a delightful meal at both nohra and terrazo and not an empty seat . Vic seems to be doing well with both visitors and the locals.
When the stock market falls it reinforces the value of a tangible primary residence imo. People buying properties at this price point are often buying for cash and view it as a safe haven long-term – particularly as a tax exempt primary residence. RE prices can fall but if you are an all cash buyer you and can wait out the recovery. Now is probably a good time to buy high value RE.
Some large sales went pending this morning including a $6.3 million and $4.4 million in Saanich/Oak Bay. Interesting, you would think buyers with that kind of networth would have a lot of their networth in S&P500/markets in general and would be a little more hesitant to move forward on big ticket items.
At the end of the day seems like the market in Victoria is incredibly resilient in the grand scheme of things.
Which ones did you go to?
By the way, on housing, Leo, I noticed a comment in the TC recently along the lines of “yes we all agree we need affordable housing but research shows that building more actually drives up costs, conspiratorial ramblings about big development, etc etc.”
https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/comment-citys-new-official-plan-is-bad-news-for-victoria-10463139
I’m curious: what is your response to these sorts of research claims? (This particular author was taking the development spurs land value angle, not the more common one of development doesn’t decrease average prices) I’m an outsider and looked at a few papers and came away underwhelmed, but you’re the expert and you must have gotten this many times before and have some intelligent things to say.
To clarify: not amazed that Trump lies frequently for the reasons you say. During Trump v1 there was a disheartening but still measurable decay length of people in his orbit that were similarly unreliable. I’m amazed that that radius has now gotten much longer. These lies also seem much lower in quality. The nonsense about the 2020 election was transparently bad but at least had to be sorted out in the courts. This thing with the tariff formula could be refuted by a normal person with a grade 8 education in half an hour.
Leo, nice to sales up again year over year . I myself thinks sales will pu steam this month and beat out last year . Restaurants where chalk a block last nite , no recession in Vic
Yep, I think it’s a good time to buy right now , probably going to c another drop in interest rates this month and the tariff situation is coming to a head and we can get that finished and behind us. Canada looks to be coming out of that unscathed
Why amazed? Blatant and transparent BS has been a core part of the Trump “appeal” since before he was elected. Its one of the ways he demonstrates his supposed power and dominance. Being held to account for facts and reality is something that little weak people have to deal with.
“Obama is not born in the US.”
“I am 6′ 3″.”
“The election was stolen.”
“They are eating the dogs, they are eating the cats.”
“I’ll end the war in 24 hours”
“I am a stable genius”
Higher end ($2m+) is not moving right now. Might be an opportunity for a trade up soon for those with secure jobs and cash.
Some stock market drop! And no stability in view -and a rising cost of living. It does feel like the fall of an empire. Every country will be looking to lessen dependence on the US and US dollar even if the tariffs are settled.
Such huge lies and deceptions and blatant disregard for the law and human rights. The kind of conditions if left unchecked could lead to civil or world war.
China is rising ahead of US tech and innovating faster – and not shutting down STEM research but making a massive investment in talent and resources for it. Private tech industry in the us can do a lot, but they are now falling behind.
As the world reorders I hope Canada has a good strategy. Election can’t come fast enough.
Month April April
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 116 679
New Listings 344 1,620
Active Listings 3,103 3,017
We are about 300 active listings ahead of last year so should finish at the month around 3,400. Not sure if we will hit 679 sales with everything going on. Really too early to tell but I am going to predict 650.
Month to date stats.
Sales: 116 (up 11% from this time last year)
New lists: 344 (down 8%)
Inventory: 3103 (up 11%)
The tariff formula story was insane. On many levels. Politicians lie, but I’m amazed at the poor quality of this administration’s deception. Similar story to the Signal/Jeff Goldberg incident in that attempts were made to vigorously cover up lies that could be provably demonstrated within an hour.
Trump came up with a formula to determine the tariffs to charge most countries in the world.
A formula that makes use of greek symbols such as epsilon, theta, etc. But after using advanced doctorate level inverse math the formula may be simplified. And this is how Trump will apply it to most countries.
alpha Q
Being able to do simple math hasn’t made you poor either.
Honestly you shouldn’t need pen and paper for any of those. Though #3 is definitely easier and faster for most people if you write it down.
Not sure what the big deal is though. Being able to do sums and differences in my head hasn’t made me outrageously rich and has only contributed in a minimal way to the success I have achieved. Occasionally a good party trick though.
Thursty- Congratulations, with 2 correct answers you were tops in this class. I had to disqualify Max for cheating. Gave the test to my friend’s 40 year old son-in-law. He didn’t do well in university except for calculus. He went for 2 years then transferred to technical college. He has a high paying job involving high tech with Manitoba Hydro. I watched him struggle with some of the questions, I think it took him over 10 minutes. He got 3 wrong, sloppy mistakes on the most basic questions. He said most of the people in his age group would have a tough time with the test. Going to have the penguins tested next. I wonder how Trump would do?
The penguins on Heard and MacDonald Islands are hitting back with steep retaliatory tariffs.
Its official now, April 3 thru April 6…Seed to sprout (3 days). I am seriously considering changing my handle to “Green Thumb Max”.
From one of the countries which has done a lot with a little and has a very sensible approach to government and trade. This is the Singapore PM, an economist, speaking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0swAZQeZRc
We have a bigger land base/resources, but Singapore has better diplomacy (networked globally), tech, innovation, and efficient government. If we could adopt some of these strengths we would be in a better position to face the trade war challenges and shifting global alliances.
Singapore also has housing affordability issues and has a number of interesting programs such as publicly owned homes that can be purchased by residents with payments linked to income.
LMAO you two are the biggest internet losers I’ve ever come across. Hard to imagine what you are like in real life.
Yeah, I’m missing the Z above the 9…Perhaps I should dial 0 for the operator.
Max- You’re cheating on the last question, no computer help allowed either. Texting started on flip phones, that was beyond me, still don’t know how they did it.
Boomer- I wanted it to be simple, as stated to test basic math skills that are needed in every day life. Like the ability to make change.
And he won’t just make it easily downloadable on his website; you’ll have to e-mail him a sob story when you request it, so that he can copy and paste it to HHV as part of one of his regularly occurring complaint-fests.
It can even text if you look above the numbers on the rotary dial.
I still have an original from BC Tel.
Re Math test
Forgot, you should probably have a question on dividing a number by a number smaller than 1 (eg 5 / .1) and if you are really testing comprehension of math concepts instead of practical application skills you should have some negative numbers in there (eg 5 X -1)
Max with the help of Marko bought Patrick’s house for $1,010,000. The house cost a million more than Marko’s commission. How much was Marko’s commission?
>>… What’s a rotary phone?
I hear Marko’s working on a study guide 🙂
Damn, got 2 right, good thing I have other skills lol
What’s a rotary phone?
More than 50 countries have reached out to the White House to begin trade talks
“There’s no postponing. They are definitely going to stay in place for days and weeks.” -US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, 8:30 am Sunday
Re math test
I agree that it is pretty straight forward arithmetic but you would need to qualify the age group. There are several concepts in there that you would not expect somebody in grade 4 or 5 to have a clue about. I am not sure about the cube roots. I agree a bright student would would figure it out with trial and error or possibly a really bright one would figure out a crude form of bisection to narrow down the guessing but that is probably more experience than just math. Deriving a cube root algorithmically would be pretty advanced for any school age student. Some of being successful is probably more about strategy with exam writing than math knowledge. (for example, skip all the hard ones and come back with whatever time you have left over at the end)
What would you consider a pass?
Nice! I’d have to clear a few cobwebs, … And, it’s 6 am. But thanks 🙂
Here you go:
1. 9×6
2. 144/12
3.10,643-5877
4. 4766×2
5. $20.00-$17.57
6. square root of 4
7. 11,000/10
8. 18×16
9. cube root of 27
10. 1500x .02
11.180,000/30
12. cube root of 64
13. 15,000,000x .003
14. 78-49
15. How many finger holes on a vintage rotary dial telephone?
Conditions: No calculators. 10 minute time limit. Pen and paper.
Simple basic math. Nothing difficult.
Post your test on Facebook, Frank, and see how that goes. It won’t be different.
Patrick- I have a friend who’s a retired school teacher but still substitutes regularly. I’m going to create a simple math test and see if he can hand them out to the students. Not sure if that’s allowed, I’ll find out. The test will be simple math with a few difficult questions. If possible, and I can get some results, I’ll report back. Kind of doubt he’ll go for it, schools have strict controls over what teachers can do or say. One teacher I know, she works in a private school, was given strict instructions when writing comments on a student’s report card, she could never use the word “but”.
>> Cheaper to go to Portugal or Mexico and it won’t rain every day and you could go to a private clinic if you need something.
No need to go to Portugal or (gasp!) Mexico for private medical clinics.
There are 5+ private medical clinics in Victoria now, accepting patients and charging patients directly. (Google search or search HHV as I’ve posted the names, and you’ll find them). This is allowed (at least tolerated) under Medicare in BC as the doctors are fully out of MSP (“unenrolled” or “non-enrolled”).
People without family doctors need to be aware of these private clinics, and they shouldn’t be misled by nonsense HHV posts like the above implying they can’t see a doctor privately in Victoria. You have to pay for these private physician services of course, but it’s probably the same or less than you pay your vet for looking after your cat/dog. And if you need specialist/hospital treatment, you can be referred and have it paid within the Canadian Medicare system.
Maui = paradise 🙂
Canadians becoming “semi-snowbirds” and moving to Victoria during the winter has surprised me. The numbers aren’t huge, and of course it makes more sense to head south to the warmth and sun. But the ones I know that do it have family here, or have health problems and rely on Canadian Medicare.
The PISA test results compare countries who have written the same test, for maths, science, reading. Of course we don’t test students that have dropped out of school, but as I’ve shown, Canada has one of the highest graduation rates, so are results would be even higher compared to other countries if we included dropouts in the testing.
But you’ve made a different point in that the great results for Canada doesn’t mean there aren’t at least some “morons” walking around. Yes, that’s true, likely always been true for every country though.
If it means nothing to you that Canada high-schoolers are scoring high on standardized tests , that’s fine with me. I was pleasantly surprised when I learned that, and I give my congrats to our students and our teachers for making that happen.
I know, but he was referencing specifically people with lots of money. People with lots of money typically have investments that are subject to capital gains taxes in unregistered accounts and real estate.
My position is is that it is not this category of wealthy people for whom other countries are more enticing – it is primarily those without enough assets to live here comfortably in Canada. There are many vlogs on youtube run by this subset who have moved abroad and are trying to make a little more documenting this. For some lower net worth retired Americans it makes even more sense because of the cost of medical insurance and medical care in general in the US.
Most people would not be subject to “exit taxes” because they don’t own investments subject to capital gains taxation. In fact a lot of people with only CPP/OAS/RRIF income would get more after taxes by going non-resident.
That said there are plenty of other reasons to stay in Canada.
What are the criteria you are applying to this decision?
I’d say that for a Canadian with funds who is considering retirement, who only speaks English fluently, doesn’t have a second citizenship to a country they have family in, is concerned with safety, clean air and environment, and stable institutions then Victoria is an excellent choice.
For Canadians with very limited means, it may end up that they can increase their standard of living by getting a retirement visa to ex. Thailand or Portugal or Mexico and it may be worth it to relocate. The fact that your dollar goes further becomes kind of irrelevant if you have a nice place to live in Victoria and money leftover – except for preventative health care perhaps. For these people I think you can optimize quality of life by going to another country for affordable health care and/or warmer winter trips.
It is also not as easy to relocate as you’d think. Especially as you age. For most people there is a degree of attachment to home that is hard to replicate if you don’t have to because you can’t afford to stay and the exit taxes to become a non resident are not insignificant.
My parents have passed. I’m interested, where would you suggest?
Not unless if you got aging parents you want to be around. If you got $ but no ties then Victoria would be pretty far down the list.
In other words, Victoria is just a really good place to live as far as the world goes.
Mexico is a dump, Europe is much better. Victoria is only good if you got family, roots and some $.
My friend, a semiretired doctor, spent a month in Victoria to escape Winnipeg winter for a while. He stayed at as AirBnb on Quadra. They weren’t impressed, said the place was surrounded by tents. They stayed for 30 days. I asked him how they found a place for that time period, he said the owner had a very lenient cancellation policy.
Patrick- We still don’t test ALL the students. You’re taking out the bottom of the bell curve. Of course our numbers look good, doesn’t mean there are no morons walking around.
Where is the snowbird suppose to stay? Spec tax was doubled earlier this year so I don’t see how buying makes sense. Airbnb crackdown has restricted supply. I rented my personal place (1,000 sq.ft. condo) for 31 days to a cnd snowbird earlier this year and airbnb paid me out $9,200 so their cost must have been over 10k.
Then throw is access to health care is a disaster plus where there is some availability in terms of accommodation (downtown) it isn’t very desirable with all the homelessness issues.
Cheaper to go to Portugal or Mexico and it won’t rain every day and you could go to a private clinic if you need something.
>>..>>> In countries like China, Singapore, Japan, Korea, etc…, if you drop out of school you get beaten with a stick
If you remove those countries you listed above, Canada finished close to first out of the 80 remaining countries (on the PISA standardized tests of reading, science and maths).
For example, ahead of USA, Switzerland, Australia, UK, all EU countries (except Estonia).
I’m pretty bullish in that I think we’ll go sideways for a couple more years and don’t believe that this shock will cause substantial price declines
Patriots, “There are actually two different categories of goods/services on which no GST is collected.” This is true. However, the $50k will more likely be treated as a rebate. It is fully taxable but the buyer is entitled to a rebate. In many situations the rebate can be signed off to the seller – this way the buyer doesn’t have to wait for their credit and there’s no implication with regards to mortgage etc. I expect this is how this will be handled:
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/forms-publications/publications/rc4028/gst-hst-new-housing-rebate.html
I am surprised more people aren’t bullish about this city. Victoria may provide the only warm safe-haven for disgruntled snowbirds from the prairies. Those who have had their North-South migration patterns altered by tariff/trade disputes may soon realize that Victoria provides the same year-round golf, but in BC, you get 100 cents on the CDN Dollar. Just my 2 cents 🙂
Nothing is set in stone- like dividends, real estate markets, hockey scoring records, life in general.
Westshore condos took a beating 2007 to 2015; however, they are doing okay right now. I think the reason is 2006/2007 you had a lot of investors pile in but these days believe it or not you have young couples buying 2 bed 2 bath condos in Langford to live in as principal residence. The Westshore also has much more in terms of amenities; therefore, if you don’t have the commute into town every day it isn’t that bad.
Apparently you can make 90k/year working 40 hrs/YEAR as an agent in Victoria -> https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstateCanada/comments/1jjtvtz/realtors_40_hours_worked_90000_this_system_needs/?rdt=41292
Now that you mention it, mine was a definitive statement itself.
I would say westshore and condos feeling pain is set in stone, just ask those amature pumpers back in 2022.
Frank,
It is refreshing to see you tempering your definitive statements with words such as might be and possible pitfalls; nothing is set in stone these days.
(btw, I dropped out of school because they kept beating me with a stick.)
Alot of people have full time jobs and is doing RE as a side gig, WFH really opened up this avenue. All you gotta do is schedule showings around work meetings.
That should really be in harmonization with rather than in support of the US. The US doesn’t need any help from us to keep out Chinese EV’s. They’re in support of the EV industry in Canada.
Of course that was in the good old days when we had free trade in cars.
“Not sure if it is $50k due to GST input credits?”
There are actually two different categories of goods/services on which no GST is collected. The first is called 0% GST, on which the seller gets input credits because there’s a stated GST rate (i.e. 0). The second is called exempt, on which the seller gets no input credits.
For example food is zero rated, while most financial fees are exempt. Which one do the politicians mean for housing? Don’t know.
https://help.truenorthaccounting.com/en/knowledge/exemptgst
Patrick- In countries like China, Singapore, Japan, Korea, etc…, if you drop out of school you get beaten with a stick. Complain to the authorities, they beat you with a bigger stick. Here, if a parent raises their voice to a child, they get charged with child abuse. Dropping out of school is not an option in other countries.
Sunday night we should expect something silly from Trump, intended to defuse the market meltdown. Maybe a “truth” via Truth Social, announcing that so many countries are phoning begging to negotiate that he’s delaying the sanctions for a few months. And if so the market will rise 5%+ at the open on Monday.
Arrow- I wouldn’t call having a realistic view of the world as pessimistic. Realizing what direction we might be headed allows someone to make important decisions and avoid some possible pitfalls. Lunch with Thursty would be more enjoyable, I’m a terrible tipper.
Probably the right move unless they are critical renos you need for the house to function. I don’t see reno’s getting more expensive in the current climate regardless of tariffs, you could be in a position to do your renos with your stock gains.
No, the house hadn’t previously transacted for a long long time until the recent sale. The lot is unique without many substitutes in town.
Geez, it’s so tempting to move my reno budget into some stock buys right now. Some nice deals out there.
I recall those tariffs being enacted in support of previous US trade policies. That sort of neighbourly support shouldn’t hold much weight now, especially considering the effects wrought on Canada’s canola & seafood exports to China.
Their situation is unique as they were targeting one specific property that was off and on the market for over a year and was finally able to negotiate a deal with that Owner. They got some cash but it isn’t without limit, not as dire as some others with very limited room for error.
–
Vicre, could it have been this home by chance in my neighbourhood that was sold for an unfortunate $825,000 loss (plus expenses) after it was puchased at the top of the market in 2022?
https://housesigma.com/bc/oak-bay-real-estate/2685-burdick-ave/home/nbq6y10qdWaYo9DA?id_listing=9w8o3m4reDz7GKjm
Maybe it’s time for Canada to remove those 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs. Good for lowering emissions. Good for hurting Tesla. Good for EV-marketplace competition. Good for consumers.
Ironically, the US had made some substantial strides to decrease their dependence on China with many companies moving manufacturing either to the US or to other countries like Vietnam, Taiwan,and India. Now they are all getting punished for it with high tariffs and US allies are no longer incentivized to sideline China. Speed run reduction in American influence.
The next few months or longer are going to be fun in real estate! I’ve had negotiations stall out in recent days on various properties between $1.2 and $2.1 million at under $25k apart. Buyers not budging, sellers not budging.
Also, a have a feeling a lot of deals are going to start collpasing on inspections so even an accepted offer won’t mean much anymore after your struggle to get there in the first place.
I liked Covid a lot better as things simple went dead and it was a month of hiking and exploring nature. This is different in the buyers still want to view properties, sellers still want to sell, but there will be few deals that will stick. Really curious how this month shapes out but I am guess less sales YOY?
Wouldn’t not want to be starting a real estate career right now.
Rodger , yep saw the jobs report and I didn’t c the big deal . We are in a great time for business in Canada as there will be winners and losers in the new economy, I say bring it on
It looks you didn’t check how many full time jobs we lost in March, before any tariffs. Regardless of tariffs, we are heading into a recession.
It is hard to tell which is the more adamant, Frank the pessimist or Thursty the optimist.
(Either way, I imagine that lunch with T would be more enjoyable.)
China and the U.S. can crush Canada economically. I think that is what they are trying to do. China has taken over much of Africa to access their resources. We’re next.
Totoro, I would agree , Rubio had a good take on where the U.S is going with all this and I don’t c what is wrong with that . There’s going to be winners and losers going forward and that’s life . Myself I care rocks if a Canadian company can’t pivot in the new economy
I am just responding to your statement amount no plant shutdowns. I am not disputing the intent or reasoning for their shutdown, but would like to also correct you that the auto tariffs were not just announced on Wed, they were announced for a month now.
I think the biggest issue is uncertainty. Predictability is good for business. No way to really plan right now.
Vicre, No reason for Stellantis to idle production other than the company is trying to figure out a path forward . The tariffs were just announced on Wed so there’s been zero change in demand . There’s going to be alot of knee jerk reactions in corporate
In RE news, some SFH’s are getting close to pre-tax cashflow break-even with 20% down now with the lower 5 year rates.
https://www.thestar.com/business/about-6-000-autoworkers-receive-layoff-notices-as-stellantis-announces-two-week-shutdown-of-windsor/article_b96bbeef-5f6f-4d06-9be8-de4f14a7856c.html
I am not saying it’s 2007/08, I am saying that it’s not positive for Canada and doesn’t help sellers trying to time the spring market.
Vicre, there’s been some companies that are probaly over reacting to tariffs but it’s all fear driven . No big layoffs or plant shutdowns. This is not even close to 2007 and 2008 as far as a bloodbath .
Unless you are already fully invested…
People on the east coast would beg to differ.
Meh, this lil blowup will pass soon enough . Nothing in the cards Canada is heading for a recession.
Nope. Just reallocated all spare cash to buying equities, stopped extra payments on the mortgage in favour of market, etc.
I won’t be changing anything this time either, but unpredictable president still feels a lot riskier than global pandemic
Canada 100%, US probably. It really is the Trumpcession as otherwise things were on track for respectable growth
This is where a government DB pension really shines. No need to check your rrsp balance just life as usual with annual indexing for inflation.
This is a blip so far. if your job is secure and you have a bit of an emergency reserve then your investment strategy should continue on autopilot. Continue to buy a bit every month.
Stock market going on sale sucks for those currently living off their investments, but is a boon for all those in their peak saving years
That factor (dropping out of school) affects all countries in the test. Moreover, Canada has one of the highest graduation rates in the world (10th out of 85 countries). 86% of Canadians graduate grade 12.
We all know Warrens phrase, “ be greedy when other…
Okay. I’ll let Warren go first.
Leo, if you were happy to buy during Covid does that mean you were sitting on cash market timing or were you buying on margin?
Once again Warren is the The Man sitting with buckets of cash rubbing his hands.
As I mentioned earlier this year, I went largely to cash at the beginning of the year for tax planning purposes, this happened to be pure good luck and I have been dollar cost averaging since then back into the markets and now may be a good time to go into high beta stocks.
It’s true other countries do things differently. I went to school in a country where high school started in Grade 5. At some point in Grade 4, one day we showed up to class & guess what, it’s a surprise test mandated by the government. And as it turns out, your results from that test decided (yes, really) whether you were allowed to proceed to an “academic high school” or a technical school destined for trades.
Pretty wild in retrospect.
Then we show up for high school (grade 5), and it’s strict rows of desks, no talking, and learning Latin.
Move to Canada, show up in open-concept classroom with desks scattered wherever students wanted to group them, and a reading corner with a big couch. Which turned out to be ok, since we didn’t speak English and needed time to catch up. That took a good 3-6 months.
That certainly is a possibility, but the significant opposing force is the sucking sound coming from our economy. My bet is continued cuts at a slower rate, or perhaps a longer pause, but not increases, or at least not more than perhaps token increases to send a message. FWIW…
Big drop in the stock market means people spend less. And house equity is not growing to counter this. Seems likely we are headed for recession if tariffs last. TD is predicting a 4.1% price drop for west coast homes – maybe Victoria does better. As always the people who can wait it out should be fine long term – but not a comfortable position for many retirees who don’t have work pensions and who can’t just work more.
Just DCA in a little at a time for amateurs. Lots of discount platforms offer free trades and you can buy 1 share at a time.
Good test for investors. Have to say when the stock market crashed during COVID I was excited to buy at a discount. It seemed obvious that it was an over reaction. Hard to say now how low it could go or how long it could last.
Good point. I guess they would still get those credits but they won’t be usable anymore since they won’t be collecting GST?
Depends on the sales mix I guess.
Not sure if it is $50k due to GST input credits?
How many Canadian “students” have dropped out and were not around to be tested? Education is optional in this country. The interactions I have with young people leave me stunned at their level of intelligence. Schools have abolished holding students back, they just have to show up to pass. That’s according to my friends who are teachers. Scolding a student is a criminal offence.
>…>> which is a standard test taken worldwide by 85 countries.
That really doesn’t mean all that much these days.
Canada high school students (age 15) scoring near the top in the world in math, science and reading means a lot to me. And a lot to Canada.
I agree with you. The buyer doesn’t care that $50k is GST. All they care about is that a new house costs $1,050,000 and that’s the figure they’re comparing to a used house to decide which one to buy.
The latter at first. If the places are currently selling at $1,050,000 of which 50k is GST then that is the market value. Drop the GST and the market value doesn’t suddenly drop by $50k.
However:
Yes Frank, in the mid 80’s. My husband and I were renting in an apartment complex on Shelbourne street. His cousin and her boyfriend lived in another building, also on Shelbourne and they were given notice that they either had to move or buy their suite as it was converted into to a condo. We were all students at UVic at the time.
That really doesn’t mean all that much these days.
They would increase the price to $1,050,000 no GST. This doesn’t help the buyer, but the idea is that does incentivize the developer with higher profits, and should lead to more developments being financially feasible and getting built.
.>.—..> Have you checked our mathematics scores lately?
Canada’s high school students (age 15) did exceptionally well in the subjects tested by PISA, which is a standard test taken worldwide by 85 countries, run by OECD. Testing is done every 3 years and these are the latest results (2022 test year) Canada finished 6th out of 85 countries. Tied with Taiwan. Subjects tested were math, science and reading. Canada scored ahead of every non-Asian country except Estonia. The only two countries that are way ahead of Canada were China and Singapore.
https://www.lwleducation.com/blog/pisa-results-2022-how-canadian-schools-measure-up#:~:text=PISA%202022%20Results%3A%20Canada%20Ranks,6%20—%20LWL%20Education
Next msg..
Next msg
Max- When my birds hatch I’ll send them over to raid your garden.
I explain in this video I made a few months ago that GST is not a complete loss when you buy brand new construction – https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Z2VbFHU3-U&pp=ygUPTWFya28ganVyYXMgZ3N00gcJCX4JAYcqIYzv
If a brand new home in Royal Bay is currently $1,000,000+GST and a re-sale one is $1,030,000 (let’s ignore the PTT exemption for now). Does that mean once GST is removed the re-sale will drop to $980,000 or will the developer increase their price to $1,050,000 no GST? Thoughts?
On the other hand, all the proposed changes for new construction buyers are starting to add up.
Couple years ago a buyer of a new $1 million home would need 200 K down payment, 18,000 in property transfer tax, and 50,000 in GST
As of now, they only need $75,000 down payment and zero property transfer tax plus $50,000 GST.
If the election promises mean anything then maybe by this time next year, they will also not have to pay the $50,000 GST. So saving some $70,000 in taxes and requiring way less cash on hand to buy. Might actually help demand a good bit
And they are not potatoes. They are green pepper, tomato, broccoli, water melon, lettuce, and cantaloupe seed starts. These are all meant to be started indoors 4-6 weeks prior to planting outdoors. I do this every year. Not just because of the blood bath on the stock market today.
I totally hear you, quail are very easy prey with just a simple pellet gun.
QT- The Canadian government also did not invest in semiconductor factories knowing full well Canadians are less willing to work as Croatians. Have you checked our mathematics scores lately?
Max- I’m way ahead of you. I heard there’s a shortage of birds so I bought some bird seed and planted it. Should have a fresh batch in the summer.
Their situation is unique as they were targeting one specific property that was off and on the market for over a year and was finally able to negotiate a deal with that Owner. They got some cash but it isn’t without limit, not as dire as some others with very limited room for error.
Hey Frank, check it out…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/potatoes-discount-chains-and-drugmakers-offer-havens-in-stock-market-bloodbath-fbd34b9b?mod=home_ln
Just started a fresh batch of 48 down in the garage.
Soon we’ll all be trading squirrel recipes again.
The top five developers in Zagreb, Croatia are 100% financed by the buyers and have been for the last 10 years or so. They require 100% payment upfront and if you want to buy from the top five that is simply what is required of you as the buyer. Somehow the developers mostly manage to sell out these projects.
So the question arises how are there that many buyers that have 200,000 to 1,000,000 euros+ in cash. Relatively simple reason, there is no culture of investing in the stock market or other avenues beyond real estate. If you own a hotel, in Dubrovnik, for example, with the profits you go to Zagreb and you buy a new condo. If you are a professional athlete, you buy a condo in Zagreb, etc.
Looking at that government could somehow incentivizes CND citizens to pull their money out of the S&P500 and finance developers instead.
The one caveat in Croatia is brand new construction is a better deal than re-sale (like the way it use to be in Victoria and Vancouver 15 years ago). What I mean by that if a developer is asking 900k Euros for a brand new pre-sale a one year re-sale is going for 1000k Euros.
Here the script has flipped, developer asking 550k+GST and you can get something a couple of years old for 500k not GST. However, maybe if the financing costs came down for developers (especially now that projects take three years) maybe the prices could come down too.
I’ve been to Taiwan on multiple occasions as a very close friend has a company with a factory in Taichung. I’ve had a tour of his factory and several other ones and the work ethic there is insane. Workers focus on very complex tasks for entire 8 hr shifts…it was quite shocking to see coming from a lazy culture like we have in Croatia. Factory would go bankrupt in 2 days with Croatian work ethic. That is why we live off tourism.
The only way to do this type of move unless you are flush with cash is sell first in my opinion. Subject to offers you’ll get no where and buying first you could end up in a situation like the one noted above.
Worse case scenario is if you sell first and you can’t find something once you sell is rent an Airbnb. I have two sets of clients doing that right now (one has two kids under 5 and two cats and they were able to secure a three month Airbnb and I think they are in a great position to buy now given how things are unfolding).
Well make sure you tell the realtor to provide good treats at the open house!
I know someone who upgraded about 4 months ago with a delayed close and is now trying to sell their current house for $3M. Tried to time the spring market with their own sale but not sure if it’s going to work out…
The Taiwanese government also didn’t invest in bowling alleys.
Interest rates? Inflation?
I’ve been hearing more and more about the possibility of the need for higher interest rates because of the coming inflation due to the tariffs. (In America….and that will mean Canada would likely be forced to follow?
I must be wrong for years to assumed that it was due to strong Taiwanese government supports since the 1980s.
There is a reason semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan: manual dexterity. North Americans have big clumsy hands that are not suited to such precise skills. We’re much better bowlers.
Are these new factories going to be carbon neutral? I doubt it. Futures for tomorrow’s markets look dreadful. This is where investing in real estate has its advantages. Other than war or natural disasters, people need a place to live and don’t run for the exits when things get bad. Having said that, I think the real estate investment ship has sailed. Cash may be king for the near future.
There is good reason for the US to make sure that they have a domestic semiconductor supply line. If China takes over Taiwan, they could be in a very bad spot. Thing is Biden already tackled that problem using the CHIPS Act and it was extremely successful in getting new manufacturing facilities started in the US. I believe Trump has since cancelled it and many of those investments are at risk. Slamming the existing industry with huge tariffs when they can’t just pivot on a dime is insane.
Fraser valley is in very bad shape
This is what I don’t get either. Do Americans want to work in factories or does he think Elon will build him robots to run the factories?
Vicre, nope not yet , gotta get this election over with and trumps tariffs to settle down and maybe another interest rate cut and that’s it. The 2.5 and north part of the market isn’t exactly on fire and so here I wait lol.
Did you put yours on the market yet? Spring market is starting.
Sweeping tariffs does put trump in the drivers seat as far as negotiations. It’s not a bad plan , I too am guessing the trump admin is very busy chatting to upset countries. I’m really not expecting this to put much of an economic squeeze on
Canada .It’s a great time to go out and buy a new home
Putting a hefty tariff on Taiwan, the main manufacturer of semiconductors, is sure hurting Apple, down almost 10%. Where does Trump think they are going to get the skilled labor required to make everything on U.S. soil? He’s not much of a visionary.
>>> Just the cars that aren’t compliant with the existing trade agreement. What that means in practice, I have no idea. Might be a big deal, or it might be purely symbolic.
Correct. It matches the USA condition for tariffing Canadian parts and cars – which the USA has also restricted to only non-USMCA compliant items. Apparently the us is redefining what that means, and they’re considering it to be non-compliant unless 50%+ is made in USA.
For me, the point is that Carney is matching what they’re doing (and can control what gets tariffed using his own definition of non-compliant), and also is not tariffing US parts at all.
Overall I’m quite impressed with how Carney is handling things. I expect that Canada and USA are doing lots of talking behind the scenes, and that we’ll end up with a renegotiated USMCA that’s tariff-free.
The Star is reporting that March sales in Toronto were the lowest on record for at least the last 23 years.
You’re focused on the fact that two median incomes can technically afford a crappy $445k 2-bedroom condo like the one on Quadra without assessing the long-term outcome of this or how much of their income it is going to eat up and what the risk of a loss is. My point isn’t that it’s impossible—it’s that calling this a “great option” or proof there’s no crisis stretches the reality of what that purchase actually means for most people.
While you measure affordability by getting into an objectively undesirable 2-bed, if we look at the 2024 Saanich Housing Needs Report (https://www.saanich.ca/EN/main/community/community-planning/housing-division/housing-needs-report.html), it defines affordability as housing costs not exceeding 30% of gross income—mortgage, strata, taxes, and utilities included. This definition may be a useful one for median earners who don’t have a lot of extra income for other costs after buying – although I don’t think it applies to higher income earners.
For that Quadra condo, the $3,270.57/month plus utilities pushes costs to around $3,500, or 43–48% of two median earners’ post-tax income ($7,500–$8,000). That’s not just over the report’s affordability line; it’s close to ‘extreme core housing need.’ Meanwhile, renting at $2,100 plus utilities fits under 30%. The report also warns that older condos like this, with high costs and slow appreciation—look at that flat $445k price since 2022—often strain owners without delivering long-term value. So, while you’re right that they can buy it, Patrick, the report suggests it’s far from an affordable win for median earners. I would argue this type of ownership being the only available option to median income earners indicative of an affordable housing crisis.
Affordability isn’t just a yes/no question—it’s also about what you’re getting for your money and whether it makes sense. That Quadra condo shows this type of ownership “win” – an old noisy undesirable condo – is not really a win. The current owners will have about a 60k loss when they sell – that is not a theoretical loss; it’s a real outcome for someone who bought this exact unit.
You say no one knows where home prices are going, and I agree—neither of us has a crystal ball. But that’s exactly why I’m skeptical this condo is some golden ticket. If it’s not appreciating significantly (and it hasn’t so far), and it costs more monthly than renting something better, where’s the upside for median earners?
I’m not saying people need a mansion to end the “crisis.” I’m saying that if the best-case scenario for two median earners is an overpriced, noisy, outdated condo that costs more than renting and might not build equity fast enough to justify the risk, then yeah, I’d still call it a crisis—or at least a serious challenge. Affordability isn’t just about crossing the finish line of a purchase; it’s about whether that purchase sets you up for stability or straps you to a financial treadmill. For a lot of people, this condo feels like the latter.
You’re welcome to see it differently—maybe for some, owning anything in Victoria is a victory worth celebrating. But I’d still tell those median earners to save their cash, look elsewhere, or co-own something with more potential. This isn’t about taxpayer handouts; it’s about making strategic choices with limited resources.
Just the cars that aren’t compliant with the existing trade agreement. What that means in practice, I have no idea. Might be a big deal, or it might be purely symbolic.
Ya not too sure about counter tariffs , I think they could be a lil sneakier with fees and such to make American exports to Canada more expensive and less attractive
Lmao, so basically the same thing I been preaching……
I get that the “tough on america” is playing well politically but at this point I feel like we would do best to just ignore tariffs as much as possible, stop escalating, and put 100% focus on diversifying trade, reducing internal barriers, building up Canadian suppliers, etc. The countertariffs are going to lead to a lot of job losses if they persist.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2025/04/03/canada-travel-decline-united-states/
25% tariff on cars made in the U.S. How doe that help?
5 year CND bond yield at 3 year lows as well.
I see the 5 year US treasury is down to 3.72% as well. Last I looked it was somewhere over 4%.
Oil down 7%, Canadian dollar strong, Apple down 8%, I guess we’re due for another black swan event.
We have one winner for the day… CAD up to .7110
I wonder how much these tariffs are going to increase the price of affordable houses.
Can’t wait to see all the posts about the shrewd trades they made and all the alpha generated.
Get ready for a blood bath on the markets today. Futures look pretty grim.
I expect that these Trump tariffs will be mostly gone soon, probably within 6 months it will be a forgotten issue.
In the meantime, it’s interesting that in theory the way the tariffs are setup now, Canada should be a short-term winner. Because most goods made in Canada pass tariff-free to USA, unlike almost every other country on earth that pays minimum 10% tariffs. So if there’s a widget maker in Ontario, his phone might be ringing off the hook today from someone in a tariffed country to see if he can make their widgets in Canada and ship them tariff free to USA.
As mentioned, I don’t expect the tariffs to last that long, so this won’t really play out like this long term. But in the short-term it should be fun to watch what happens to Canadian exports to USA. I think they go up!
We’re making progress.
The discussion is about affordability.
First you told me that median incomes ($27/hr x 2 people) can buy a $480k home, but there aren’t going to be 2-bdr homes for under $480k for them to buy (“ they may be able to buy an older one bedroom condo, but probably not a two bedroom”) .
I’ve shown that this isn’t true (e.g. 3235 Quadra in maplewood, 2bdr, 1100sq ft. $445k) , and you haven’t disputed that.
Instead, you are now talking about whether condos like this will be a good investment and will appreciate much in future, and provide a list of things you don’t like about condos like this (traffic, noise, and strange concerns like they “allow all ages”). Fact is that the condo on Quadra that you don’t like as an investment might appreciate in future more than your 4 or so rental units that you own.
Because, no one knows where home prices are going and that includes you. Moreover, none of that applies to the issue of affordability, which is being able to afford to buy a home.
I’m pleased to know that median incomes can afford a 2 bdr. condo like this, but if you want to consider it a crisis because it just isn’t good enough, go ahead. Just don’t expect the taxpayers to help make that happen, as there are more important things to spend government money on.
Thanks for the discussion.
Pretty rare around here I think. Saanich actually has a bylaw prohibiting it unless the rental vacancy rate is at least 4%. Of course we may actually be there by the time of the CMHC report this October.
Do you know much about how condos are financed in other countries? I feel like we need to get away from the presale model. I think it’s fundamentally unstable unless we’re relying on condo investors to provide most of the rentals. If we have sufficient PBRs around I just don’t see how that investor demand is ever going back to where it was.
Didn’t renters get turfed from their apartments years ago and they were converted to condos? Instead of selling an apartment block for a million, they could renovate and sell each unit for $200,000+. I’m talking years ago, don’t ask for specific examples. Apartments have been converted to condos for decades.
100% it will be a problem and it is very obvious how it will unfold. The same people complaining about greedy developers will be complaining in 10 years why Starlight/REITS own half of the buildings and why everything is a rental and people can’t get ahead via ownership.
Housing starts haven’t increased, they’ve just been redistributed from strata to rentals.
They should allow buyers to pay for the pre-sale in full at a discounted price. In Croatia the best developers never need bank financing – the buyers finance the entire project. Some buyers have cash and others take a mortgage on their existing place to pay the developer cash. The middle of the road developers that can’t sell demanding 100% payment upfront usually have a 10% deposit option, remainder on completion or a discount if you pay upfront. For example, this developer in Zagreb you can buy with 10% down or they offer a 6% discount if you pay upfront and they always have that option advertised on their website -> https://pionir.hr/kako-do-6-popusta/
Looks like market doen’t like the 49% tarriffs on Cambodia. Lululemon set to open double digits down tomorrow (manufcaturing operations in Cambodia). Interesting times.
Leo, you are correct regarding the stock portion, when most people think of Buffet they think of BRK stock
I think developers have an opportunity to build condos if they can self finance. I still think the prospect of thousands of rentals completing into a market with almost zero growth is under appreciated.
People will still want to buy condos and I think lack of new starts will be problematic
The Emerson townhomes or do you have a missing middle project in Emerson Street?
Please explain to me how paying $3,270.57 a month – plus any repairs – for a poorly located 2 bed 1980s condo ($580/month strata)- right on an extremely busy road (including the bedrooms), with shared coin laundry, and units above and to the side (stick built) that allows all ages and pets (think noise), is a great option when you can rent a better older purpose built unit with in suite laundry for $2100 a month?
To me this is not a wise decision or a great opportunity or a sign of no crisis for median income earners – keeping in mind this the pinnacle of affordability for them. Borne out by the fact that the current owners bought in 2022 for 445k and are listing three years later at 445k – so overall a loss of at 36k in after tax dollars (plus any repairs) they paid vs. renting, plus seller transaction costs of what – 17k or so? And this is assuming they get their full asking price. Ballpark 60k loss vs. renting not counting any ROI on the extra 36k in savings.
Granted some of this is because of the short hold window, but there is no guarantee a unit like this is going to appreciate much in the next five years because we are in different economic/political times and owning old condos with lots of noise issues is not looking like a great opportunity to me.
I’m someone who has been a proponent of buy when you are ready and don’t try to time the market, but its strategically not a good idea to buy this. Save your money and move somewhere more affordable, or co-own here something that has more upside.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/04/01/march-uncertainty-continues-to-drag-on-market/#comment-127275
You’re so doom & Gloom Marko. Come by Emerson St and see our 2 bed units.
Jokes aside – I do think the pre-sale as an investment idea isn’t super attractive these days. At the same time, an end user buying when it’s 4 to 6 months from completion (financing in place, straight shot to occupancy) is fine. You’re going to wait 4 months for a tenanted property anyways.
The Property Ladder.
https://youtube.com/shorts/D_gUD1Xp6j4?si=1r2mdwVbtKhAy8gs
We are saying two different things. The Berkshire Hathaway stock has outperformed the S&P500. That is not the same as Buffet’s portfolio, which has lagged.
———=—-===
There’s lots of 2 bedrooms, like this one in core Victoria, $445,000 2bdr, 1100 sq ft w/parking and balcony. , 3235 Quadra (Maplewood)
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28061224/210-3235-quadra-st-saanich-maplewood
And that, as you’ve shown, would be affordable to two median incomes of $27/hr. To live in Core Victoria, one of the most expensive and desirable cities in Canada.
Is it really correct to call it a “crisis”, if two median incomes ($27/hr each) can afford a nice 2bdr home like this? And nicer homes than this in most other cities in Canada.
For those who do consider this a crisis, please tell me how big and how nice the home would need to be to get us out of this “crisis”.
Surprised to see Serbia on there. Wonder what that will do to the political scene in Serbia as there have been ongoing protests over corruption with the current administration.
The auto tarrifs are insane, that can’t possibly stick for too long. Going to cause absolute chaos for Tesla if it sticks. They will have a large advantage in the US market but other countries will retaliate and specifically single out Tesla.
This is going to hit BMW/Mercedes big time.
Leo, actually Buffet has out performed the S&P500 over the past 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30yrs … you get the picture
https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gspc
Looks like the short squeeze took out the “weak hands”. Tesla is back way down to 267 in after hours.
What a list of loser countries , I never knew Laos or Sri Lanka exported anything lol. I guess it is another trump nothingburger
Reciprocal Tariffs are on….. Look for all consumer goods (in the US) to jump by at least 15-20%.
Interesting 27 an hour is probably the lowest level clerk worker at the provincial government. one bed condo seems right for that role.
There are only a few pre-sales left at this point. The majority of construction you see is rentals.
Okay, so screw that guy too. If it’s a dart board we’re dealing with, I’d rather pay the lowest fees I can get away with.
You’re right, I need to quit referring to ETFs as mutual funds, since they’re not the same thing. In any case, that’s what we’ve got, Vanguard ETFs, mainly because the fees are so much lower, and you get the same diversification. We parked everything we could in those, and we only look at how they’re doing every quarter or so. Neither of us is comfortable trying to guess where the markets are headed, and that goes double with the cretin currently occupying the White House.
Warren Buffett hasn’t beat the market in a long time, and in fact has recommended that most people (including his own family) use low cost diversified market tracking funds. It’s not a fallback plan for people who don’t understand investing, it’s the best way to get the highest reliable returns over the long run.
Marko, So are u seeing developers are both building and holding on to their projects and renting the units out .
Just had my last pre-sale buyer get their deposit back on a purchase (project went beyond the “outside date” of the original contract). Can’t see recommending a pre-sale to anyone for a long time. As a result I don’t think will see many launch in years to come. Pretty much the pendulum has swung to apartment construction but will be interesting to see how that holds up with softer rents.
Averages can easily skew high or low.
The median SFH price in Victoria is 1,127,000. The median hourly wage is about 27/hour . 27×35.5x52x2 = 49,842 x 2 = 99,684 – or about the median family income in Victoria.
This income will qualify you for for a mortgage of approximately $445,000 with a 20% down payment assuming no other debt and allowing a home purchase of about $556,000. Many first time home owners earning 100k will take a long time to save up more than 100k to put down, especially if they have student loans to pay. With a 5% down payment, the family qualifies for about a $462,000 mortgage (including CMHC premium), enabling a condo purchase up to $486,000.
With 5% down in Victoria they may be able to buy an older one bedroom condo, but probably not a two bedroom once you account for closing costs. With prices on condos not really having a strong foreseeable appreciation pattern and rent ($2000 for a one bed) being cheaper than owning ($2,853 to $3,460 per month plus repairs/maintenance- 880 principal pay down). And with condos you are one special assessment away from a serious loss if you don’t have a buffer and older condos are prone to expensive special assessments.
Tesla’s board of directors….Elon, Elon’s brother, Elon’s very close personal friend, etc. Some of who dumped shares at >$350.
Elon’s brother dumped $33 million while Elon is telling shareholders to hang in there. Lol what a joke.
In my experience LLMs have yet to be useful to me for research but they’re getting closer and closer. Link below describes progress in use of O1 (which now can be replicated over a longer timescale by DeepSeek running locally on a reasonably good laptop) to take the Putnam exam, the famously difficult version of a comprehensive competitive undergraduate mathematical exam.
https://x.com/kylekabasares/status/1868529612554420489
I would be shocked if the board of directors of Tesla has not strongly recommended musk leave his position on doge before he more permanently impairs the long-term value of the Tesla name
I would spend a few hours on YouTube, there is some really great content. A lot of better alternatives to mutual funds, in my opinion, that offer you a degree of diversification (you don’t have to pick individual stocks) such as vanguards FTSE Canadian High Dividend Yield Index ETF.
Chronology of Marko’s struggle with the Model Y “Juniper” codename:
Jupiter
Jupinter
Juipter
Jupiner
>>> Leo, news came out over 3 hours ago that Musk will be leaving doge shortly
Right. And like so many of our “breaking news” headlines these days, the “musk quitting doge” news has been dismissed as “garbage” by the White House https://x.com/PressSec/status/1907476290438901863?
In the old days, if it came from the White House, it was very likely true. Now, not so much.
I don’t really see how this fixes Tesla’s problem, so I’m baffled by the market reaction in the face of falling sales. This is why my husband and I have always stuck with diversification through mutual funds. Warren Buffet may have this shit figured out, but we sure as hell don’t.
Difference is I am not referring to other people that are doing the same thing I am as “takers.”
If Einstein had access to newspapers, and all headlines were reporting Kim Kardashian’s death, I would expect Einstein to be able to correctly determine whether she’s alive or dead.
I’ve never disputed that AI can perform valuable work for some people.
However, I personally am constantly disappointed by some of the simple things AI cannot do.
One of my clients showed up to a showing yesterday in a new Jupiner….absolutely loves it says a huge improvement over his old gen Y and is raving about the FSD. It does look good in person but I can’t get past the price – 100k out the door with no rebates.
“I still made $1,200 in the end as I entered the day Musk’s brother sold $33 million.”
Marko, I see you’re talking about how much money you’re making in the stock market again 🙂
Leo, news came out over 3 hours ago that Musk will be leaving doge shortly, and yes the average investor should never short stocks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/tesla-shares-rise-on-unconfirmed-report-elon-musk-could-be-leaving-doge-post-soon.html
I should have got at open but I thought it was going down to 200 based on deliveries but ended up getting out at 275. Still made $1,200 in the end as I entered the day Musk’s brother sold $33 million.
I still think the company is massively overvalued but yup another example of markets impossible to play for the average person. My gut feel was the deliveries would miss estimates but I also thought that would lead to collapse of the stock price but it did the opposite.
Patrick, lets assume its greater Victoria and since the average Millennial is in their late 30’s I think thats fair.
> Massive miss in Tesla deliveries, stock up 5.3%.
And that’s why I don’t short stocks, especially stocks controlled by the guy that has his people in every part of the US government.
Right. One thing about the Trump tariff crisis. It’s entirely fixable, by just calling off the tariffs. Which I expect will be the outcome, and soon. I expect we’ll have a tariff-free USMCA 2.0 signed within 6 months.
Massive miss in Tesla deliveries, stock up 5.3%.
And that’s why I don’t short stocks, especially stocks controlled by the guy that has his people in every part of the US government.
Those jobs were more like 160k – 200k back in 2019 but yes I take your point. My point is that you don’t need to have rich parents or be some super successful tech guru to buy a SFH, all you really need to do is work somewhat hard at a semi decent career and have a partner that is similar. I mean even trades guys are cracking 100k with minimal OT now so I really don’t understand all the whining.
Not downtown luxury, Trump tower pre-sale buyers are losing more than 100k on some current resales.
> How many millennials own a SFH in cities in Canada?
Is that your definition of affordability? That it must be a SFH in a city? Only 14% of homes in city of Victoria are SFH. Will it be called a crisis in COV unless average incomes can afford a SFH, when it’s only possible that 14% can achieve this? For Greater Victoria, same idea, only 38% of homes are SFH – it’s not possible for everyone to own a SFH, regardless of price.
Patrick if you call a home a 400-500sq foot condo I guess you’re right. How many millennials own a SFH in cities in Canada?
Of course the oldest millennial is also in the 45th year.
54% of millennials already own homes in Canada. That’s not far behind the national average (66%), so congrats to them for achieving this at a young age.
And good news for Victoria, we have the lowest mortgage delinquency rate in Canada at 0.11%. That’s only 1 out 909 mortgages delinquent (which could be from any cause like illness etc.) https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/-/media/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data-tables/mortgage-debt/mortgage-delinquency-rate-canada-provinces-cmas/mortgage-delinquency-rate-ca-prov-cmas-2012-q3-2024-q4-en.xlsx
Groot, Adderal may actually be helpful to Trump and calm him down if he actually has adhd which many claim he does.
https://dockruse.medium.com/did-adhd-just-save-trumps-life-d9a139d9195a
And were back to the boomer claims thats a great time to buy and young people have never had it so good and FOMO. Patrick food has risen between 25% and 30% over that time along with rents, mortgage rates and everything else. There still a few problems like having to come up with around $200,000 for a down payment (as the cost of everything has gone up so much) on $800,000 starter home that may or may not exist in many Canadian cities and if you happen to find one you may need substantial funds to renovate it, unless your taking about a townhome, and of course you better not have or plan to have any children.
In one of Trump’s late night Adderall induced states, Trump wrote he will be putting a tariff on illegal drugs.
Canada average wages per hour up 21% from pre-pandemic. Now $31.31/hr. Two average wage earners would be $62.62 per hour and that’s $125,240 per year. Which qualifies for purchasing a decent AFFORDABLE starter home in most cities in Canada. Remember that 50% of people buy below average priced homes, so the price of an average home isn’t the “lowest rung” on the property ladder.
Graphic is Canada average wages per hour (statscan).
What are you basing your expectation on? Zero reading of any guide to AI inquiries and uses? It is like saying that you would expect a power tool to work without pressing the on switch, cause that is not something you understand, and then label it a piece of garbage when it doesn’t. Meanwhile someone else is happily using the tool to build a house in a fraction of the time it would take to use a hand tool – and selling it for a greater profit as a result.
I’m using the free version too.
It’s just not a good use case for tools like ChatGPT. Either they
If I ask Einstein about the kardashians I won’t get useful info but that says nothing about the utility of Einstein
Vancouver condo benchmark prices are up about $100k since 2018
This wasn’t a problem for 200k to 250k HHI (even if we adjust this number down a bit due to recent wage growth) families in 2019 when the median was 788k either.
800k @ 4% @ 30 years will be just under 4k a month. Should not be problem for dual income with fairly average professional jobs (~200k to 250k HHI)
No different than vancouver, actually vancouver is worse
Dale, consumer spending is the biggest part of the Canadian economy so when people go negitive and dream up all sorts of shite in theyre heads it’s tough to turn that around . I’m seeing so much half backed retards writing all sorts of stories in mainstream media it makes u wonder where all the nutters are coming from
Problem is affordability still sucks so no I don’t think there is any merit to this idea. Just to give you some context
SFH median for 2019 – $788,000
SFH median for 2020 – $855,760
SFH median for 2021 – $1,050,000
SFH media for 2025 YTD – $1,163,250 at higher interest rates than the average from 2019-2021. Sure, we’ve seen some wage growth but not that much. Interest rates have come down but they are still at 4% when and when you apply 4% to $1,163,250 that still a lot of absolute interest cost a buyer has to pay if they are taking out a 800k mortgage for example.
We’ve also hit a 10 year high in terms of inventory. Even without Trump the Canadian economy is close to a recession. Rents are slightly down with a ton of rental inventory coming to market, etc.
That all being said if I was buying a principal residence I would jump in now if I could find the right place and I could afford it. Markets are impossible to predict.
The prairie provinces was where u can pu descent roi, but never a lot of upside on appreciation. Kinda pretty much the opposite of b.c
I had a client buy an investment condo in Edmonton in 2007 and she sold it last year at a loss.
Can you post a screencap of the question & answer?
…
I’m aware that it’s helpful to properly prompt AI and refine results; however, I would still expect that (even a free version of) ChatGPT would be able to correctly ascertain whether a celebrity was alive given the hundreds of news headlines containing that information.
In this case, ChatGPT not only couldn’t/didn’t answer my initial question but also got wrong the most basic fact about the subject matter.
You need to add more parameters or change your inquiry to reference that he is dead or to check today’s sources. The tech is advancing rapidly and not all platforms need this level of input – but the more specific and directive your inquiry the better I’ve found.
What I posted was from ChatGPT. Maybe because I’m using the free version?
Edit: I asked it what model version it was, and it replied: “You’re using GPT-4-turbo. It’s a more efficient and capable version of GPT-4, optimized for speed and cost while maintaining high-quality responses.”
I’m blown away by AI. Agree with Leo – this is user error.
I’m amazed at the number of people who don’t research how to use AI ie. model/query/controlling for hallucinations, before making comments like this.
If I was just starting my career I would 100% build it around AI, both what it can do now and what it is likely to be able to do, and work to become extremely proficient at leveraging its capabilities. It is pretty important for young adults to consider how AI is likely to impact future job prospects – because it will.
There will be a deal at some point, but globally the balance of power and trade relationships will remain unsettled for some time to come imo and things may get less stable. People are still going to need a place to live, but I don’t think we are going to see the demand that was created by investors or move-up buyers or immigration to the same degree. Without this demand and with all the new supply (albeit small and not super desirable) people are going to look elsewhere for returns, although in unstable times tangible assets start to have a little more allure even if they aren’t going up in price.
Do you think there is merit to the idea that when we have a new prime minister, and assuming they are able to negotiate a deal with Trump, it will bring back the consumer confidence and stability needed to see people start to take advantage of the rates again?
You’re using it wrong. The model you’re using doesn’t have up to date info. That doesn’t make it bad. Just typed the same into ChatGPT and it checked the web before answering and gave the right info.
Edmonton problems
Outstanding technology:
