Blood from a stone
The BC Budget was released last week, and there was essentially very little new in it, especially on housing. Other than continuing funding for various programs already in place, the only real change was increasing the speculation and vacancy tax, effective January 1, 2026. The new rates are:
- 1% for Canadian citizens and permanent residents, up from 0.5%
- 3% for foreign owners or those earning more than 50% of their income abroad, up from 2%.
Note that for BC residents, there’s a tax credit which doubled from $2000 to $4000 to compensate for the doubled rate. So BC residents can still own a vacant second property worth up to $400,000 without paying the speculation tax.
There’s also new data out on results of the vacancy tax, now covering up to 2023. I extracted the data for our local municipalities, and here’s the rate of properties that have been hit with the vacancy tax for the region’s municipalities over the last years. For the 2023 tax year, there were 1330 properties subject to the tax, essentially unchanged from 2022.
A few things to note:
- This is not the vacancy rate. The last census data showed a vacancy rate (actually a “not occupied by usual residents” rate which is a little different) of 4.8%. The 1.03% of properties in the chart above are subject to the spec tax, so they either:
- Were vacant and didn’t qualify for the list of exemptions
- Were not vacant, but were occupied by so-called untaxed worldwide earners (previously called a satellite family, or a household deriving most of its income from sources outside Canada)
- The number of properties subject to the tax increased in 2022, and stayed higher in 2023. This isn’t due to increases in vacant properties, but rather due to changes to the spec tax itself. The 2022 tax year is when the exemption for properties with rental restrictions was phased out, meaning that owners of rent-restricted units were liable to pay the tax when previously they would have qualified for an exemption. I explained this in detail last year.
- It appears progress on reducing vacancy has stalled. While there’s no doubt that the tax brought some vacant properties back to the market over the years, at this point the numbers are pretty stable. This is likely some combination of:
- BC owners that get the tax credit are taxed on paper, but not actually out of pocket much money.
- Owners for whom paying the tax is preferrable to renting or selling their properties
- A small rotating group of owners that may only pay the tax in one year, but not continuously.
Breaking that total rate down into municipalities, Victoria has by far the largest number and rate of taxed properties, at 690 or 2.44% of all properties, even up a little bit from last year when it was 662 or 2.38%. Saanich has the next most properties at 135 but actually one of the lowest rates at just 0.35%.
Only Victoria has any significant number of properties left subject to the tax, and most of those are owned by British Columbians or Canadians from other provinces. That’s also a reason that the number has been relatively resistant to change from the tax. Because of the tax credit, the average BC resident owner of a second property in Victoria paid $1982 in speculation tax last year, while the average Canadian owner paid a decidedly stiffer $5030. That’s nothing compared to the average foreign owner though, who paid a whopping $19,128!
So when the rate increases next year, BC owners will see little change in their tax bill, while a few Canadians from other provinces or foreign owners may be forced to do something else with the property. But we’re chasing 9s here in terms of results. There were few vacant properties to start with, and squeezing harder is yielding fewer and fewer results. As I’ve said from the start, the value of the vacancy tax is mostly symbolic to kill the long standing myth that a large percentage of homes are vacant in BC.
The other thing I like to look at in budgets are the projections for Property Transfer Tax revenue. It’s a big revenue source for the province, and the forecast is essentially their bet on future sales activity in BC. Right now they are projecting a steady but mild increase in PTT revenue and thus sales this year and next. Granted, the Budget Boffins aren’t any better at forecasting the market than anyone else, as evidenced by some of their forecasts in previous budgets (indicated with dashed lines). Unclear if they thought about it that much (likely no), but seems like the province doesn’t expect the tariff turmoil to affect market activity in the coming years.
Also the weekly market activity:
| March 2025 |
Mar
2025
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 153 | 588 | |||
| New Listings | 429 | 1310 | |||
| Active Listings | 2747 | 2647 | |||
| Sales to New Listings | 36% | 45% | |||
| Sales YoY Change | +13% | 0% | |||
| New Lists YoY Change | +21% | +17% | |||
| Inventory YoY Change | +11% | +34% | |||
| Months of Inventory | 4.5 | ||||
New lists are into their normal start-of-month jump, and are running 21% ahead of the pace last year. Sales are also ahead at a more modest 13% year over year increase.
Too early to say for sure, but market balance is looking a little weak in recent weeks, with strong new listings pushing the sales to new list ratio below what we had this time last year. At best we seem to be matching last year when prices were roughly flat, rather than following 2023 when the spring market tightened up substantially and prices were pushed upwards. Will the next rate cut bring some demand back to counter the uncertainty?
New short post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/03/18/sales-waver-in-the-face-of-strong-new-listings/
4) Until now. Its kind of different this time.
Well there’s always been a minor strain of anti-Americanism and it hasn’t stopped droves of Americans coming here and it hasn’t stopped the overwhelming majority of Canadians from being super polite to our American visitors. At the moment very few Canadians left or right “hate” Americans. They are just very angry at what the Trump administration is doing to Canada and threatening Canada with. I’m hardly alone among Canadians in actually feeling sorry for the American people at the moment as they are in the grip of a sad con man.
I do agree that there will be a drop off in American visitors:
1) The Trumpcession is going to hit them too
2) A percentage of Americans agree with Trump and want to “punish” Canada
3) Some idiot Canadians with poor impulse control are taking out their hostility on individual American visitors. Gradually this will become known in the States and make Canada less attractive for them to visit.
Before this page gets turned over. I just want to say I highly respect Leo, I respect his blog, and I even respect the audience. Just because I don’t exactly follow the narrative of what is to be expected, I feel everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Even if I agreed with everyone and played nice, and a thumbs up on this blog would score a free token over on Deep Seek for a “text to image” generation…I would still disagree with most and speak my mind!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mortgage-real-estate-fraud-1.7485867
Tip of the iceberg in BC real estate?
How the once vibrant, super busy Victoria inner harbour lost its vibrancy. Would you travel to a country where a bunch of left wing nutjobs hate you?
You’re making the incorrect assumption that it is a free market.
I am a capitalist.
“A person who uses money to invest in trade and industry for profit in accordance with the principles of capitalism.”
Like Doug Ford, Marxist hero.
Can you explain what will you find interesting about that Max?
I am a full on Canadian. I was born at the Victoria Royal Jubilee Hospital in 1973. I love the American people…My Sister lives down there!
I am able to separate the actions of the Cheetoh from the American people. Like most Canadians (including you I assume).
If you want to hate on the US that’s your thing. I don’t… I have family down there!
Is it really bc of hateful minority left wingers or is it because the grand Cheetoh started a fight with a larger subtext that he could never understand
Will be interesting to see when US tourism tanks in Victoria’s inner harbour this year and all the local businesses lose their shirts only because of the wall of hate from the minority woke left wingers! I will avoid price gouging Canada only grocery stores and continue shopping at Costco and Walmart for much lower prices. I also look forward to our upcoming 7 day trip to Las Vegas.
That’s a poorly written article. The subject is Canadian travel to the US, but one of only two graphs they display is actually US travel to Canada!!??
The actual relevant graph is the second one that shows a 23% decline in Canadians return trips from US . Significant drop-off but not stunning. Will be interesting to see how the “boycott” holds up
To the landlords on here. How far ahead do you post a unit? Our tenant just gave notice. And, do you only do month to month tenancies or what term of tenancy? I’m curious what others do
Looking at that chart of automobile traffic it doesn’t even look that low when you factor is exchange rate. If we exclude the covid years those Febs the exchange rate was also 0.76, 0.75, and 0.74 and currently we are at 0.70 which does start to become quite expensive.
In the same article…am I reading this correctly?
“The number of passengers travelling by air to the U.S. held steady and increased slightly compared to the same month last year — 50,000 more people made the trip — but even air travel hit a multi-month low.”
So 50,000 gain YOY via air travel to US on a much weaker CND dollar? That makes no sense even with prebookings.
Canadian travel to the US is now at pandemic lows: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cross-border-trips-decline-235k-february-1.7485695 Huge drop in car cross-border, flights have longer prebooking periods but some airlines are reporting a drop in upcoming bookings.
No it doesn’t. Depends on current land use.
Weren’t making any more of it prior to any historic RE bust either. As groot pointed out, if the price people are willing to pay for finished housing goes down, land prices go down too.
We’re up for renewal late October. I’ll be happy with anything in the high three’s – 5 year fixed.
Caveat, Or no recession and cheap money kicks in and renters are left at the starting line . Who knows what the future holds only that it’s fun
The oncoming recession may not be quite as good news
We are up for renewal in July – fingers crossed!
Borrowing costs are better than they have been for quite a long time right now. After seven consecutive Bank of Canadas cuts, variable rates now are as low as 3.95 per cent. A rate not seen since 2022. Fixed mortgage rates are also down and it’s possible to get a five -year rate for 3.89 per cent.
That’s good news for those coming up for a renewal because as early as six months ago rates were quite a bit more elevated.
The uncertainty in the market stems from the tariffs as Canadians hold back on large purchases as they fear they may not have a job in six months from now. However, if you’re on solid financial footings, today may be a good time to consider upgrading to a better home as more selection becomes available.
LMAO $500k price drop as many here have called it way over priced. https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/28039279/1030-pentrelew-pl-victoria-rockland
As usual pretty sure it was Frank who was saying it will sell at $2.5M because of the elevator or something stupid to that effect.
LOL the average house buyer still thinks that the seller pays for all the realtor fees and they effectively pay nothing when they buy……
Might be a pause to the rate cuts next month if inflation keeps coming in hot, interesting to see what they would do to sales right at busy season. Rush4life, this could be your opportunity!
I don’t know who your “they” might be, but land developers make building lots as well as assemble land for high rises to construct say 50 strata homes where once there were three houses.
Land prices are set by the marketplace bringing buyer and seller together. If demand for building sites, as shown by lower housing starts, is declining then lot prices should follow.
Based on the number of messages I am receiving in terms of “offer received, let me know if any interest from your clients” I think this week will pick up a bit from last week.
Mind boggling that the average voter can’t do 5 minutes of research and apply to some grade 5 math to come to a conclusion that Carney’s (and others) promises on housing are just complete non-sense lies.
They’re not making any more of it.
The one input that builders have some control is what they pay for vacant land. The land developer can’t typically rent land and it costs money to hold. The price for vacant land should be crashing.
A small vacant site in Langford sold in February 2018 at $260,000 plus GST. It re-sold in November 2024 for $300,000.
With lower demand and increasing construction costs why are land prices not falling?
It’s very interesting to read the post by Patrick and follow up on his link
https://www.vrba.ca/news/despite-bc-govt-targets-housing-starts-decline-46/
Interesting how Victoria and others think it is a good idea to jack up the fees so much just to thwart the imposed density rules etc.
Will this block not lead to increased prices for homes as more people compete for the few that are there?
Doctors and other people will not be able to afford to live there. (Long talked about in Vancouver). That plumbers, trades people, dentists, or those that do, will have to charge a fortune for their services to cover their costs?
There definitely needs to be a multi pronged attack to sort this out. As well as co operation between governments of all levels. All of those things seem hard to imagine that this is going to end well.
I worry that our governments are pivoting away from embracing growth through encouraging regular businesses that supply things that we need such as consumer goods, bridges, roads, alternative energy, hospitals, schools etc. and shifting to a huge investment into the Military industrial complex . There is no doubt that the MIC is a money making scheme. Just look at the trillions made from all the current wars. (Usually made by a few key players and not the average person who works and pays for it all both in blood and taxes)
Those key players make fortunes at both ends of the war. The destruction and in the massive rebuilding that always takes place after. They call it a “Win Win”.
So my question is: do we want our politicians to build houses etc or do we want them to buy multi billion dollar fighter jets that will be obsolete before we even pay for them….. because right now, it looks like we are buying the fighter jets…and very likely American ones at that. (We have already paid for the first batch. (America knows it makes no sense for us to have a mix, and so kicking tires overseas at other options is viewed as an obvious dance. )
Greater Victoria housing starts totals (CMHC) are way down in first two months of 2025 – down 46% from previous year. Numbers in Core Victoria are tiny – for example a total of 9 (!) housing starts in Saanich in the first two months. Of course numbers are volatile and this is only two months data from slow months, but things are looking bad, especially for the core.
Housing starts totals YTD (first two months of 2025)
Core Victoria 42 (cov(24), saanich(9)+OB(9))
Langford 149
Colwood 34
Other 19 (sooke+sidney+esquimault)
https://www.vrba.ca/news/despite-bc-govt-targets-housing-starts-decline-46/
Well no. For example:
https://www.cicnews.com/2025/03/whats-mark-carneys-immigration-agenda-0352758.html#gs.l1a2if
Does that mean he has no intention to reduce immigration?
Out of town, new post tomorrow, but also sales kind of slowing down. Now only 5% ahead of this time last year
Strong sale at 4684 Lochwood, $50k over assessed at $1.33 million for what looks to be a mostly original 70’s rancher in broadmead.
Well as Leo pointed out JT was attacked for pointing out – correctly – that it was mainly up to the provinces to increase housing supply. So of course the federal leaders – all of them – are going to say what people want to hear.
While Carney is promising to double housing we can barely maintain current output-> https://calgary.citynews.ca/2025/03/17/cmhc-reports-seasonally-adjusted-rate-of-housing-starts-slowed-in-february/
…
Well we still have room in oak bay for the upper crust of society
Majority of bay isn’t that bad outside of the few eye sores around cook, burnside/tillicum area is the real undesirable of the core IMO.
Vicre, if your owning the dirt in Vic I think your doing ok. Was driving down bay st with homes pretty much on the road and I was thinking those folks should be happy with a sfd in the core even if it was definitely not the nicest street to be on . I guess we all buy what we can afford and are happy with our good fortune
When I look at the higher end condo market is still somewhat consistent with before. an average SFH in a decent neighborhood (~1.3M) trades for a nice 1200 sqft ish condo with views or potentially penthouse. That trade was the case all the way back since 2014 from what I recall.
This one is a good example that sold for 560k in 2014 https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27914776/1605-707-courtney-st-victoria-downtown
If someone has a POS house in an undesirable neighborhood are they still exceptional in life’s picking order? Sure you can trade for mansion is Edmonton but who realistically will do that after putting roots down here? Numerous HHV posters commented about either people they know or themselves regretting about their neighborhood choice.
Condo market isn’t great either if stepping down.
if they are re buying then it would actually help them as the next step up properties are even slower.
Myself i think this is a condo story and am not surprised condos are taking it on the chin. If u have a house in Vic your doing pretty good , count yourself as the exceptional in life’s picking order
I guess….I went to a couple of listing presentation this weekend and one seller purchased for 900k in 2018 and CMA now is spitting around $1.5 million. Their neighbour has been on the market for months closer to $1.6 million and finally sold closer to $1.5. I suggested $1,499,900 realistically – $1,549,900 on the high end and seller wants to start at $1,599,900. Good probability it sits for a while at that price, they have to reduce the price and only walk away with 500k+ tax free gains.
So is the market crazy, no, absolutely not but prices are insane if you go back just 6-7 years.
Some of my recent repeat client sales…helped client buy townhome for 373k we just sold it 785k. Helped clients buy SFH for 878k just resold for 1.314 million, etc. If you remove the crazy peak with had for a couple of months in 2022 sellers are doing well.
Same when people say rents are softer…yea compared to craziness we saw last few years, but at the end of the day if any of my tenants moved out I would be re-renting for substantially more.
It isn’t reasonable to see gains across the board year after year.
The broader Canadian RE market is pretty bad YTD.
Don’t c any problem with accepting a bully offer , it’s just business and nothing personal .
For the overall market yes, for sellers with no intention to buy concurrently, not so much.
Seller never had to sign the form. The form was designed by real estate boards to bring some structure and certainty to delayed offer. I’ve been involved in a lot of bully offers and it is just a bad look for the profession in my opinion.
You set a day and time for offers and then don’t follow those instructions provided to buyers, kind of crappy. Had lots of buyers in the past planning to write an offer and then you receive an text/email from listing agent “we have received a bully offer it is open for 32 minutes, seller will address.”
BCFSA is saying these forms shouldn’t be used the boards essentially saying seller can set a day and time to review offers, but then can do whatever they want including not following those instructions.
Marlo, couldn’t a seller just not agree to sign that form? I don’t think I would have as a seller. What’s wrong from a seller’s point of view with being able to accept what might very well be the higher offer, even if it was a bully offer?
On the whole I think some stability is great. Prices have been relatively flat and with approx 600ish sales this year will be three years of the same
2023 – 590
2024 – 588
2025 – 600ish
will be a pretty disappointing spring market for sellers this year despite the significantly lower rates compared to last year.
Month March March
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 286 587
New Listings 794 1,309
Active listings 2,871 2,647
Sales and new listings pretty much identical to last year. Will finish the month at 2,950 active listings +/- or about 300 more than last year.
This is kind of interesting, BCFSA wants sellers to have the option to accept bully offers if they would like -> https://realestatemagazine.ca/b-c-culls-irrevocable-direction-regarding-presentation-of-offers-form-over-realtor-conflict-of-interest/
The BCFSA introduced the rescission period to the benefit of the buyers; however, doesn’t like properly structured delayed offers (also brings a more transparent/fair process for the buyer).
The issue is that anything that is even remotely complex is virtually all done in front of a computer screen and communicated via emails…
Thursty, if your judging the market by January and February then you’re right the average days-on-market has come down from 56 in January.
Year over year, we are pretty much the same as 2023 and 2024. The average days-on-market indicator more often continues to decline until mid-summer.
With all the macroeconomic uncertainty in the world -Victoria seems to be doing fine.
I was cautious about the huge amount of mortgage renewals that are coming up in 2025 and 2026 but I think most mortgagees have taken steps to reduce their exposure. I expect an increase in the number of court ordered sales but not of any significance to affect the marketplace.
Groot, I myself am noticing that homes aren’t hanging around that long , markets still has legs . A roll of the dice might be a busy late spring market and maybe a busier than usual summer market . With more interest rates coming they can’t hurt imo
That type of work is called office administration.
People that have the option of working from home, but would rather go into the office everyday to work, resulting in the exact same efficiency, are people that have no life. Its called the trouble at home syndrome.
In the last 30 days about 29 single family homes in the Victoria core sold over their last asking price. The median price paid at $1,314,000. Average days-on-market was 10
For the 67 or so single family homes that sold at or below asking price the median price sold was $1,342,500. Average days-on-market was 32
The issue that comes to my mind when looking at data such as the above is how much reliance can one put on asking prices as there are several reasons why an agent would list below market to achieve a quicker sale. I can tell you that the courts place very little weight on asking prices as properties can sell at, below, or above list price. As such, asking prices are only acceptable as supportive evidence of market value.
If you have a family life, great, it can work but statistics show that more people are single and living solitary lives. Many people have very few, if any, friends. We are definitely in a period of growing isolation and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that is not good. Technology has changed society and the way we interact with each other.
Covid showed us that many or most businesses can survive and do ok with everyone working from home, at least for a while. I can tell you, though, that some businesses actually need the synergy of people working together physically to produce the best possible result. I worked in a fast-paced office environment where people had to work together in teams to achieve any kind of top-shelf result for our customers. The teams switched up all the time on a project-by-project basis. And yes, it was possible to deliver a reasonable result even during Covid & everyone working from home, but it wasn’t the same as the real thing. So in all the discussion of how it’s nice for individuals to be able to work from home, we shouldn’t also forget how the product might be affected, and ultimately the customers, who are also real people.
I say that knowing there are studies back & forth on the productivity question, but there’s no doubt in my mind that certain businesses just can’t operate at the same level if everyone is working from home.
The other part missing in the discussion on the “isolation” issue is the training of young people. At least in my business, there’s zero chance a young person starting out could get anywhere near the same level of training & learning while working from home. The ability to go down the hall & bounce something off a senior person for 5 minutes is priceless in the learning process. I feel particularly bad for younger people who were just starting careers during Covid where this was short-changed.
I suppose much depends also on what type of career one has. Not all work, not even all office work, is just some boring drone type of thing where your first priority is how soon you can fight the commute to get home. I do get the fact that some work is indeed that way, though.
Anyways, I’m convinced work-from-home is here to stay, at least part-time, and I think part-time it’s not a bad thing. We all work too damn hard anyways. Somehow in places like France or Spain, say, they’ve figured out a better work-life balance, and they’re still doing ok.
Some people don’t do well in public settings, work from home is a saviour for them. Most people need interaction with others. I can’t imagine what my life would have been like if I had taken post secondary courses online (it didn’t exist when I went to university). The social life was great and made the whole experience enjoyable.
Derek, there are many studies that have come out that have shown that people who work from home for long periods of time suffer more mental health problems as well as financial disadvantages from being passed over for promotions and advancements compared to their peers who come in the office. A few years when I had the option to work from home during the pandemic I tried it for a while but ultimately found it depressing and choose to go into work everyday about a 4km bike ride.
Potential Negative Effects:
Increased Loneliness and Social Isolation: Working from home can lead to less interaction with colleagues, potentially causing feelings of isolation and loneliness.
Blurred Boundaries Between Work and Personal Life: The lines between work and personal life can become blurred, leading to difficulty switching off and potentially increasing stress.
Anxiety and Depression: The challenges of remote work, such as managing technology issues, managing workload, and dealing with isolation, can contribute to anxiety and depression.
Dee…thank you for the kind words.
I think both solutions might be best actually. Light rail for those who need, or prefer, to go into the office, or work from home if that works best for others.
Frank…what makes you think that people who work from home, work in isolation? There is a whole community of people out here ….and many work from home, meeting in coffee shops, their homes, restaurants, etc. People working from home can invite neighbors over for breakfast….instead of the time they spent commuting.
I personally would not want to commute for work. But that is just my personal feelings. Millions around the world obviously do.
Many people love to work from home. I have so many friends that work from home.
Creative people in the arts have been doing it for ever.
Lot’s of studies show working from home has amazing benefits. Lots of studies show that working from home is a disaster.
My daughter would quit her job if they stopped her from working from home. They couldn’t pay her enough to go into the office.
Live and let live:)
Have a great Spring everyone. The birds are nesting in their little house boxes. Chickens are laying their eggs again now that the days are getting lighter and longer. Buds are on the branches. Bluebells are coming out.
Enjoy it while we can.
@deryk your artwork is truly beautiful
I would like some light rail transit. One going out to west shore and the other going up to the airport / ferries. All meeting at a hub maybe at uptown. Wouldn’t that make it more appealing to live in those communities? For me it would. I cannot stand the idea of a car commute and I tried taking the bus once from west shore during rush hour and it was terrible.
Not everyone can work from home. Neither my partner nor I work from home. Well I do sometimes but often I have to be f2f.
What percentage of employment can work from home? That type of work involves staring at a computer screen and making phone calls, sending emails, etc. I would hate that to be my life. People need a human connection, we are losing that by working in isolation. Probably contributes to a lot of mental dysfunction. It is definitely more convenient, but at what cost?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmjdm2m4yjo
(City Noise and your health.)
I’m enjoying reading the book, “Our crumbling Foundation” by Gregor Craigie.
I’m not all the way through reading it yet, but so far …… quite good. It looks at real estate and how our governments fail to grasp or handle the issues around providing enough or even the right kind housing.
One thing mentioned is how Tokyo has built high speed trains to the outlying areas, making it much easier for people to choose those places to live and still get into work. It is considered one of the big factors in keeping prices lower in the cities. Plus they increase supply. (He also points out that there are many factors and one shouldn’t jump to conclusions too quickly when comparing countries.) But it is a point he makes.
I can see the logic of that, but clearly they have a dense population. Personally, as I’ve said before, I believe that instead of building high speed trains, we should just let people work at home more. Let them commute at the speed of light. Especially with the less population that we have.
But governments and the cities here want the people to drive into the city every day so that the coffee shops, restaurants and malls do a roaring business and that is viewed as more important than keeping housing costs lower in the city, accessing cheaper housing costs, more time with family, one less car, less fancy clothes, shoes etc etc.
My daughter works from home. She spends an hour with her four year old at the start of her day, coffee breaks, lunch, and is with her little guy one minute after she signs off at work. The benefits to the community and to the family’s mental health is enormous. Housing is much cheaper in Sooke, and the savings enable her to have a nice holidays. It’s a win win.
The issue of working from home gets lots of different comments. It seems there are people who agree and those who disagree. And that’s the way it will be. No use arguing about it:)
Anyway…. check out “Our crumbling Foundation”. It’s a good read.
The border crossing at Emerson (Manitoba-North Dakota), the busiest crossing in central Canada, has reported an extreme slowdown in traffic, especially trucks delivering goods. The border being 60 miles from Winnipeg, travel to Grand Forks and Fargo is quite common. Minneapolis is 8 hours away by car. If this nonsense continues, air traffic could drop by half or more.
From an article in today’s Globe on Canadians shying away from US travel:
“This sudden aversion led to a 40-per-cent drop in airline and travel bookings to the U.S. in February compared with the same month last year, according to Flight Centre Canada.”
The same article notes that Air Canada is cutting flights to Florida, Arizona, and Vegas by 10% in March.
Musk is going to crash and burn, it will be the greatest collapse in American business history.
JP Morgan cut their Tesla stock price outlook to $120 which would be a fall of over 75% from its recent high
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/jpmorgan-cuts-price-target-tesla-shares-brokerage-expects-lower-deliveries-2025-03-12/
There have been a few sales of leasehold condominiums in the last 90 days. Such as a one-bedroom along Michigan at $222,000. Projected economic rent would be $1,500 a month or $18,000 per year. That’s a GRM of about 12.
A two-bedroom along Heywood at $280,000. Projected rent at $1,950 ($23,400 per year) for a GRM of 12.
Both have about 48 years remaining on the leases.
Since there is no reversionary value to the strata lot when the leasehold expires these leasehold condominiums would be similar to an Accessory Dwelling Unit as the land component is already incorporated into the value of the main dwelling and lot.
A quick way for any of you that want to figure out the contributory value of your ADU. Take your annual gross income at market rent of the ADU, as a month to month tenancy, and multiply by 12.
Then add that amount to the value of your main dwelling and residential lot to get a market value for your property including the ADU.
Certainly have had a bump in the number of Freehold downtown condos for sale with 180 currently listed at a median price of $562,000. For those that still believe in the reliability of BC Assessments that’s an asking price of 5 percent over the typical assessed value. And 5.6 months of inventory.
The median sale price over the last 90 days is $497,000 which is 4 percent under the typical assessed value.
Active downtown rental listings appear to have increased. Average asking rent for a downtown condo is $2,230 per month ($26,760) which is a GRM of 19 (rounded) down from 20.
If you are in the market for a investment condo then you would be buying at around 19 times earnings. That’s in the normal range. Neither good nor bad. What might push you to the buy side
is where the unemployment and vacancy rates are trending.
Published data for those rates are always dated and not always reliable. I think you would be better off to do some of your own leg work when it comes to that data. Take a drive around the purpose built apartment buildings in Victoria and count the vacancy signs to get a gut feel for the market.
The lowest rent price for a one-bedroom in an older PBR in Victoria is advertised at $1,550 per month or $2.50 per square foot along Linden Avenue in Fairfield. Or a two-bedroom along Michigan in James Bay at $1,995 or $2.10 per square foot that has been advertised for two-months.
I wouldn’t just target Harley…Any e-bike. What if they hit a pedestrian at full speed? Who pays for the injuries? What happens if the guy riding the e-bike is broke and has no money?
These Harley bikes are undeniably cool. The insurance angle (or lack thereof) would concern me. Advertising it as a Harley you can drive without insurance seems pretty irresponsible.
I do see the ICBC website saying they don’t insure e-bikes, so it seems to me someone bombing around on this type of Harley had better figure out what other insurance is available, especially given that most liability coverage on your home policy or umbrella may well not cover motorized vehicles.
Thank you.
PS in retirement, the first thing you ditch is rush hour!
They are here Now! The Harley Davidson e-bike! Wait until they come down in price…Every kid in town is going to want one. Lock up your daughters!
Long way up , documentary with ewan mcgregor . They start on E motorcycles in the bottom of South America , entertaining if your into ev’s and motorcycles . Revian provided support vehicles
15 years?
https://www.harley-davidson.com/us/en/products/bikes/electric-bikes.html
” undeniably addictive—immediate, seamless acceleration. In a whoosh of near silence, the ONE jettisons to the other side of an intersection in a split second. No clutch to slip, no revs to build, just instantaneous gratifying speed.”
This revolutionary e-bike is set to open up the gates of the Wild West once more! Experience total freedom legally navigating the entire Cities bike lane infrastructure including both the Galloping Goose and Lochside regional trail systems as well as all priority bus/bike lanes. Since the Harley Davidson LiveWire One is an e-bike, feel free to hop over into the ICE vehicle lanes anytime to enjoy even more freedom traversing the City limits without the need of a drivers license or any form of ICBC coverage!
With the LiveWire claims of a 0-to-60 acceleration of just three seconds, commuting to town will be a breeze, in a whoosh of near silence!
They do synchronize them to green for rush hour in and out. Was just talking to the city transportation folks about that.
+1. I think one thing that’s dumb is how the traffic lights downtown almost seem like they’re synchronized to red, red, red. And maybe that’s done deliberately so that you’re not racing through there, but at the same time, apart from being very frustrating, it surely adds quite a bit to the unnecessary stop & go traffic tie-ups not to mention unnecessary emissions from idling & re-acceleration.
I don’t actually mind the bike-lanes – I can see the sense of them even though I don’t use them from where we live. But if you’re going to have vehicular traffic, let’s have it make sense.
The irony of course is that the original law is a protectionist measure brought in to exclude foreign flagged ships from US coastal shipping and maintain US marine employment.
The idea of tolling trucks traveling to Alaska is a terrible one since we are 100% vulnerable to retaliation in kind.
Very aggressive searches for anyone that rolls up to the border with a MAGA hat or a bumper sticker in support of Girth Vader.
The carbon tax isn’t completely gone, still applies to industries.
I rarely leave before 6pm…..
Good riddance. I love ICE vehicles! Especially when I’m towing my fifth-wheel up to the Carmanah Valley using my GMC 2500-3/4 ton-4×4-full sized pickup truck-with a towing capacity of 4700 kg-for a few days of peace and quiet.
Existing laws cannot be changed with executive orders. Only Congress has authority to form new laws, modify existing laws, amending constitution, etc. That doesn’t mean Trump won’t try. Some of his executive orders have been stayed by courts precisely because they are not consistent with the constitution or laws (e.g., citizenship by birth).
I am sure there is enough support in Congress to repeal the Passenger Vessel Act as this topic comes up periodically. Many West Coast ports want the cruise ship traffic and have been lobbying the Congress for the repeal.
So long, carbon tax.
How do you manage to downshift when you’re sitting in traffic?
My 10km commute is takes half as long at this point on my bike. Traffic in this city is dumb.
Question , what value would someone put on a property solely based on roi .
Not having an active legislative body will add to the tariff escalation problems, we need to be smart about this.
(p.s. my elbows have been up since 2003 when Uncle Sam showed its true colours.)
“Today Dan Sullivan, Governor of Alaska, aims for a Victoria bulls eye: in retaliation to take legal action to prevent cruise ships from stopping at British Columbia ports, permanently”. We’ve been twice out of Vancouver, typically cruise with 7-8 people. We have also met our share of Canadians on this and other cruises. We’re probably done for about 4 years. There’s always an equal and opposite reaction to government interventions.
It bothers me too when trucks fall apart while driving.
Still doesn’t know what it’s called.
Elbows Up – Arrow!
Ya you gotta watch out for those, very common on the Japanese 4 cyl turbos.
Today’s ice engines are more efficient and quieter than ever. If u are buying anything sporty those cars will have a sound chip that operates through your car speakers to give all that roar , very common lol
If Bill 7 allows our government to make knee-jerk legislation (i.e. tolling American trucks), there is no telling how much American retaliation will follow.
Yesterday I was thinking about obstructions to Mexican produce getting here.
Today Dan Sullivan, Governor of Alaska, aims for a Victoria bulls eye: in retaliation to take legal action to prevent cruise ships from stopping at British Columbia ports, permanently.
Sullivan cites the 1886 Passenger Vessel Services Act (PVSA), which bans foreign cruise ships from transporting passengers between two U.S. ports without stopping at a foreign port. If/when Trump learns about that “anti-American law” expect a new Executive Order.
Sober second thought is one of the benefits of what is supposed to be representative and responsible government where the Executive Council (Cabinet) is accountable to the Legislative Assembly, which is made up of elected Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs).
Paddles and it’s technically not an auto transmission lol. Actual 3 peddle manual transmission cars are almost extinct now, really wish I held on to the one I had previously.
Woosh doesn’t bother me. Trucks, trucks breaking, modded cars, motorcycles bother me downtown. I find a lot of other things non-related to moving also contribute to noise population downtown such as beeping, air suspension on buses lowering for accessibility, etc.
Not sure if you can really call pushing a button to get your auto transmission to move down a gear “downshifting,” lol.
Sure, whatever you think 🙂
Neutered office drone reestablishes manhood on the road?
Definitely. But hang out downtown, what noise is actually bothersome? The steady whoosh of traffic going by, or the intermittent very loud noise from a motorcycle, truck, or crappy modded car? To me the whoosh is not the problem.
Sales aren’t super strong, but quite a few over-asks. 6 out of 15 sales from yesterday over ask. Mix of property types and locations.
Who doesn’t luv the sound of F1 doesn’t get any better than that
Haha…I actually think some people have their heads so far up their backsides that they can’t hear anything either way.
You can throw facts at them….. such as the nice experience of someone in China …how they noticed the lower noise level and those with their heads up their backsides can’t hear it:)
Marco, lets see what fifteen years will bring.
I guess if you drive all day then I can see your point, but just driving to and from the office then its a little different. Downshifting and having my exhaust make burble noises as I pass cyclists is something I enjoy on my drive home to and from work.
Out of a manual inline 6 cylinder, yes. However, for an every day driver I don’t need my crappy ICE SUV/crossover making an exhaust. I love cars but for every day driving EVs are so much better.
Nicer on the whole, 100%. Not to mention you wouldn’t need ugly gas stations, etc.
However, not sure about engines under load making much noise in modern cars.
Go stand on a busy road in Victoria and observe an EV go by at 50 km/h, it isn’t any quieter verus moden ICE. There is a reason Teslas have two pane windows and every update on a model a big talking point for Tesla is sound deadening upgrades. Just look at the review for the new Jupinter, number of reviewers focusing in on new materials in the trunk to deaden noise.
Shenzhen has a population of 18 million (almost half of Canada) of course they need electric vehicles, otherwise they’d choke to death.
Do you people not enjoy a nice exhaust note when accelerating?
Definitely. People are sleeping on how much nicer cities are without combustion vehicles. Most of the objectionable noise in cities is not from tires or a car cruising at constant speed, it’s from engines under load.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BfTiUqKqNoY
I’ll just buy my kids a beater with a manual transmission and the idle set too low so it stalls out easily
Part of the problem with some EVs is they have an insane amount of power and can accelerate very very quickly. I think being able to make software restrictions is a pretty good thing.
I worked with an intensivist at the Jubilee when I was a respiratory therapist and he had bought his kid a Miata. His logic was with only two seats she wouldn’t be able to pack five people into the car which can create for a peer pressure/distractions type situation. I thought there was something to that logic.
If you have kids, you’ll know there are few absolutes, in my view.
There will be a premium because all the OCPs are being changed to allow density on busy roads to meet housing targets, but this premium has nothing to do with potentially a bit less noise because in 20 years the truck delivering to Thrifies is electric.
I met Mate Rimac more than 15 years ago when he was working out of a garage. Here is a short 35 second clip 9 years ago of me charging my Tesla besides his first serious prototype -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umd08hGUtNI
I love EVs and change, I visit the Rimac factory a couple of time a year, but a lot of EV drivers are drinking a little too much kool-aid to be honest.
Similar to FSD finatics.
I’d agree for some urban roads in particular. Highways will continue to be really loud as the noise is nearly 100% from tires and wind.
Places on busy roads will never be premium, but a value increase can be realized simply if something goes from crappy to OK
“Because people with loud motorcycles are going to be driving EV Harleys in 15 years”
Probably not. But change is coming.
I am reminded of having a conversation with a man I respected and still do. He knew everything about sound and electronics and understood how difficult it would be to ever get to the point that we would be able to simply download movies instead of going to the store and renting a DVD. He explained to me why downloading movies etc was not likely to happen because of the huge issues involved.
Batteries will get smaller and lighter. And yes, traffic noise will always be an issue …especially on wet roads.
Companies are working on new types of tires as well.
I see that Chevrolet is coming out with new EV delivery vans. (Vancouver show coming up)
It’s heading in the right direction and roads will be quieter.
I see a good opportunity for certain properties for long term thinkers.
Unfortunately it will take years to build the infrastructure.
Agreed. We can sell resources tariff-free to many countries, unlike auto parts that go to the USA.
On the topic of ICE vs EV noise. I was in Shenzhen a month ago and ICE cars are banned from driving in the city. It is incredible how quiet it is even during rush hour. Not only can you have a normal level conversation walking next to a four lane road during rush hour the air is noticeably cleaner than a similarly congested road in Vancouver or Victoria. I have been telling people this since I got back. It felt undeniably futuristic. Amazing place.
We also need a government that wants to access those huge resources for the benefit of its citizens. We’ve lost ten years thanks to that idiot.
…and with ~75% of our exports used to go to the USA there’s lots of room to grow our trade with the rest of the world, now that the easy customer isn’t so easy to get along with.
One silver lining to this chaos is Canada is forced to try harder to not have 3/4 of our eggs in one basket.
Arrow, maybe having a much smaller population sitting on a huge amount of resources puts us in a better spot than the U.S and better yet we get to trade with the rest of the world , sounds like a winning combination.
Trump seems to know only one way to negotiate – he’s treating all these negotiations like he would a real estate deal. Oh well we just have to wait it out (hopefully).
I kinda liked Trump as a businessman. I really wasn’t expecting his world domination approach. I think he’ll burn out soon.
Being a small fry, we need to think about escalation dominance: a toll on American goods transiting BC on the way to Alaska is likely to result in a toll on Mexican goods transiting USA on the way to BC, which will make Mexican produce more expensive, or unavailable.
Again I say, Discretion is the better part of valour (sometimes it’s wiser to avoid unnecessary risks or dangerous situations, even if it seems less courageous).
No, I was quoting Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group in Singapore.
What I’m saying is that we are small fry and throwing tariffs around has its costs, either way…If we hadn’t followed Biden’s tariffs on Chinese EVs his administration would have slapped punishment tariffs on Canada. USA is the bed we’ve made, and now we have to lie in it, it seems.
Some brands other than Tesla have these features built in but all you see in the forums is people complaining about the apps/software not working as intended.
Drone footages shows Tesla is still pumping the old Model Y out of Fremont factory so there are going to be some huge discounts on inventory with the old model plus Elon hate. Right now they release a few Model Y AWDs every day for 12k off, I think that will be 20k off soon but you do have to refresh their inventory several times a day on the Tesla website to grab a good deal -> https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/inventory/new/my?arrangeby=plh&zip=V8R%204J2&range=25&PaymentType=cash
If you could pick up an AWD Long Range Y in the mid to low 50s there that is a pretty good deal even without rebates imo. They just lowered the interest rate down to 4.98% too (it was over 7% last year).
Because people with loud motorcycles are going to be driving EV Harleys in 15 years.
Are you suggesting we align with China more closely as apposed to America?
We have finally discovered Deryk’s downside to living in Sooke, it really is the land of glasspacks, open headers, and turbo-diesels…
Decent sale at 1091 Totemwood, ~300k above assessed. Seems about right for the market, $1.875M for what seems to be a nice semi recent renoed house in a desirable neighborhood with some lot issues.
Good point.
Wouldn’t the solution be not giving them the keys if you don’t trust them? If they are old enough to drive a car, do they really need to stalked by their parents? I guess parents like that would really give a kid motivation to get a weekend job and buy their own car.
A 100% tariff Chinese EVs to protect the North American auto industry? That move sure didn’t work out well, especially not for our unhappy canola farmers (More than half of Canada’s canola exports go to China, $3.7 billion in 2023, according to the Canola Council of Canada.).
“By striking now, China reminds Canada of the cost of aligning too closely with American trade policy.”
I have to disagree with Marco on the EV’s .
The most annoying noise is always the loud growling of beefed up cars and truck engines or motor cycles.
He doesn’t have to agree. Talk to us in fifteen years.
The BYD Dolphin is $14k. The Xiaomi SU7 is functionally a Model 3 for half the price. VW is releasing the ID.Every1 in 2027 for €20k and a host of other small cheap EVs.
EV transition x-China slowed in 2024 vs 2023. USA only+9%, EU DOWN 3%, The only big growth story was China +40%. Globally, EV sales are only 14% of total car sales.
EV growth should increase when the ultra low priced EV’s arrive.
https://evboosters.com/ev-charging-news/overall-results-global-ev-sales-2024/
That might be very soon as the EV incentives are gone for the new ones.
The Chevy Bolt has that feature. There are still a few 2023 models on the lots that are relatively affordable because they’re rolling out a new version (I think) next year.
Buying a Tesla for your kids would be like having your son wear his older sister’s hand me down clothes to school.
https://youtube.com/shorts/1inYSC_wL6c?si=BBO21fwBhjkW3gmW
I’d be tempted to pick one up as the prices bottom out. Got a dying ICE and want a safe car for kids starting to drive. Anyone know if other brands have the built-in features (like max speed / chill / monitoring) that lets parents restrict (kids) driving?
Yep the best thing for Canada is for the U.S economy to be a bloodbath . Now let’s get pipelines built in every direction but south
Just noticed there are over 400 used teslas for sale for the model years 2020-2024 within a 100km of Victoria, just on autotrader alone, i would imagine prices will be falling substantially much like teslas share price.
Global EV market is up 30% in January/Feb 2025 vs same period 2024. This is what I’m talking about when I said Tesla is no longer very important to the EV transition.
Global: 2.4 million, +30%
China: 1.4 million, +35%
EU & EFTA & UK: 0.5 million, +20%
USA & Canada: 0.3 million, +20%
Rest of World: 0.2 million, +35%
https://rhomotion.com/news/global-ev-sales-up-50-in-february-2025/
I’m more concerned about a rental start into this rental market. Strata if they can finance it can always be rented. I think tough to turn a CMHC rental into strata, I guess they could buy out CMHC? Not sure if this has happened.
People don’t like change, but those 1921 homes are basically all doomed. Only question is will they be rebuilt as detached properties where the building size is the max permitted on the lot, or missing middle properties that do the same?
Yes obviously a different story in the case of trucks and performance vehicles with big motors/sport exhausts. A typical mordern 4 cylinder turbo cruising around is very quiet.
He literally said “I don’t have any details,” so I think he is singing a song. Any of these actions would be extremely unpopular with their voter base.
That being said plenty of real life examples of what happens when you eliminate the pre-sale investor and rents soften – Dockside. BOSA built three towers a few years ago and there are seven more towers to go. Two of the three towers are strata and the third one is rental. Investor gone so they can’t pencil a pre-sale project and they are offering 1 month free + other incentives on their rental tower so that isn’t stellar either. As a result we will be looking at dirt for a few more years.
That being said extremely strong housing starts in BC to start the year, not sure if the YTD gains can be sustained as it would be an huge year (record breaking) if so -> https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/New-Homes-Registry-Report-February-2025.pdf
The number I don’t understand is the strata starts YTD….must all be in Vancouver – looks like it is based on the numbers but that makes no sense as the pre-sale market has been slow. I am not seeing much in Victoria other than smaller townhome complexes/multiplexes.
On the whole, in my opinion this is a bunch of non-sense (as a Tesla owner for the last 10 years). Modern ICE engines are extremely quiet, most noise comes from the wind/tires. When I show a house on Shelbourne and an EV goes by it is just as loud as modern ICE.
Maybe if the house is at a four way stop you might hear a bit less accelation strain from ICEs.
One thing about EV’s that does not get much attention, is that the shift will likely change the value of real estate near high traffic roads.
EV’s do make a certain amount of noise but it is much softer in tone than the harsh sound of ICE vehicles.
Not to mention the fumes.
Long term obviously, but a real change coming down the pike that people probably don’t give much thought to right now when buying real estate.
I’m guessing that in fifteen years, people will understand and hear the difference.
Fifteen to twenty years is the blink of an eye.
I was in Vancouver a few weeks ago and I found it (((astonishing))) the difference in the number of electric vehicles from what I’d seen a couple of years ago….. Tesla’s were everywhere. (That is probably going to change:)
But clearly it is happening and new models and a ton of other manufacturers will be coming on stream as well.
Rob Shaw’s recent article suggests Eby recognizes that to increase housing construction, there should be fewer restrictions on private investment & flipping pre-sales contracts.
“There is currently a weak market for presales, which developers typically use to help finance projects…Eby also pledged to the real estate crowd that he would boost protections for landlords”
I wonder if he just singing the BCREA’s song while they were in town, or has he actually realized the importance of the private investment to boost his affordable housing goals — previously viewed by New Democrats as unfettered capitalistic greed .
https://www.theorca.ca/commentary/rob-shaw-eby-makes-surprising-pivot-on-bc-real-estate-investors-10362456
For a Canadian, it depends if you’re looking as a snowbird or to move full-time. As a snowbird, you’d want some summery weather in Nov.-march, and come back for the Canadian summers. For the winter months, places like Maui, Tahiti and Australia are great for that.
fwiw, I’ve found Croatia to be an amazing spot to visit. I’ve always seen it during busy tourist times (July), and stuck to the coastal cities.
Completely off topic, if you want to be blown away by medical advancement, search “tooth in eye surgery”. They are just starting to perform them in Canada. The procedure restores eyesight to people who are blind by using one of their canines.
So our strategy to the annexation threat is (i) nuclear response, and (ii) rely on England and France to do that, (iii) versus the US
You can’t honestly believe this is a good plan, or any kind of plan?
If there’s one thing we should collectively be learning from this Trump gut-punch it’s that we have to start thinking more clearly and facing reality the way it actually is, not the way we want it to be.
I also liked Pula in Istria, has an amazing Roman colosseum.
Am I missing something? It sounds like Croatia is a far nicer place to live than even Vancouver island. Especially if you’re well off (not wealthy).
In Trump’s lingo Canada has the cards on this one
The Us have 7000 cubic metres/ second of the Columbia River flowing into the pacific. If they want to divert water to California then they have plenty.
People in Oak Bay not happy with missing middle….off Oak Bay Local FB page
“Another home in Oak Bay has been demolished and binned! This immaculately maintained 1921 home with an Arts and Craft inspired design is being replaced with a three story fourplex, on a narrow residential street with one and two story homes.
How about better guidelines and supports to keep houses out of the landfill?
How about recycling and repurposing? Goodness, this home had beautiful character windows, perfect for garden greenhouses or an accessory building. And wood that others in our community were wistful, wishing they had access to use these materials. Even the rain chain on the house was there until the end, buried in the demolition.
Oak Bay needs tools and involvement to address these demolitions, and the impact these developments have on our community, and on an infrastructure that is already under pressure. The Official Community Plan is up for review in 2025, and this would be a good place for Council to start and ensure they and the community have some input on how the community grows, including aesthetics and diversity of housing. To look at developments right sized, and sensitive to various lots and areas. Currently, unless there are any variances, none of the new developments come to Council’s attention. Or unless a citizen brings an issue to their attention.
While additional housing in the area is needed, a smaller complex, more sympathetic to its neighbours would have lessened the load on a street that is more like a lane. And for prospective families, a little more yard space would be helpful. It is sad that the aesthetic consideration is minimal with the end of the building and a parking lot facing the street, while the four fronting units will face a single family home to the east.
It is absurd that developers are free to build without aesthetic guidelines, and yet, a property owner needs permission by Oak Bay to take down a tree on their property!
And what is being built, will its quality stand the test of time like the 1921 house did until March 10, 2024?”
I wouldn’t go to Dubrovnik May to September, it is complete chaos in terms of over tourism and horribly overpriced. I grew up in Split which is most famously known for the Diocletian’s Palace (Roman emperor). I would avoid Split in July/August, also chaos. Those are the two most known places but there are very nice less known places on the coast plus 50 inhabited islands. I personally bought a place in Zadar five years ago which is less known than Split/Dubrovnik but also has a town center that is thousands of years old going back to the Romans.
If not hiking we like to be on the water and the islands of the Zadar archipelago are fun to explore. Every day in the city center you can catch various ferries/boats to 20+ different islands. Depending on the weather/winds we rent either a sailboat or a powerboat from one of the locals, it isn’t super expensive (my Airbnb rental in Victoria while away covers most of the expenses). On this particular day we went with a small powerboat -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0EqdigXP1w
Some of my other fav places coastal places in Croatia north to south
i/ Rovinj
ii/ Mali Losinj (Roger Federer frequent visitor)
iii/ Opatija (if you like Monte Carlo vibes)
iv/ Brac (island my family is from)
v/ Town of Hvar on the island of Hvar
vi/ Town of Korcula on the island of Korcula
vii/ Vis (where Mama Mia 2 was filmed)
viii/ Lastavo (furthest island, Jurasic Park vibes)
Inland also too many things too list…google Plitvice Lakes National Park 🙂
Our PM is using Tito’s playbook. Buying Russian gas, selling weapons to Ukraine and just praised Trump the other day 🙂
Probably will still be disputes. Columbia River treaty negotiations were just paused and I’m sure they’re going to push for more access: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/columbia-river-treaty-talks-1.7480986
I just don’t think we’re going to get involved in some kind of water war in the future. Especially with cheap intermittent renewables desalination in places like California wouldn’t be a big issue.
lol, they already think Canadians are almost Americans. They’re not going to war to save us.
Do you believe this means that water does not have the prospect of being a disputed resource between us and Canada? Be glad if so. Also, quite amazed at the scientific research level in Israel. I can say it was, surprisingly, the most interesting country I have ever visited.
Desalination is a solved problem. Isreal is paying about 50 cents to desalinate 1000 litres.
Elon can also brick every Tesla.
It’s super unlikely. But also worth taking seriously since annexation by force would be awful. Therefore we should move to be independent of the US in as many critical systems as possible. Transportation, telecommunications, energy, food, and obviously military.
As a good first step we should probably step back from spending billions on a handful of F35s that the Americans could brick by flipping a switch in the Pentagon.
Dee- You’ve got it wrong, you have to be wealthy to live in Canada.
Dee, I agree I am not loosing sleep over trump . Canada will either get on with it or fold tent. I too just go about enjoying my day
Probably not Maggie. I just know for me personally I’ve wasted so much time worrying about things that never happened or things I have absolutely no control over. I do my best to be a good human (I don’t hurt others, im kind, etc). I raise my kids with the same values I have and they seem excellent to me. That’s pretty much good enough.
Frank if you’re really wealthy I think you probably would personally be better off with that system. If not then you’d probably be much worse off.
If the U.S. does take us over, I immediately qualify for Medicare. Probably get better “health” care, if I ever need it.
As long as we all remember to recycle, I’m sure everything will turn out just fine.
Thing is, since Trump 1 the USA has continuously blocked the functioning of the WTO appeals court.
This isn’t the first time the USA has messed with another country’s trade system…This time we are in the cross-hairs but I don’t think Canada said anything when other countries were suffering; maybe we thought that we were special.
Probably it will implode at some point and it’s too bad that we’re right next to that. I agree that US could steal some of our land – especially in arctic and with Russia. We’d have to go all in defending that. Again they are so busy at home not to mention having tentacles out there stirring so many pots – it’s like throwing noodles at a wall trying to guess what each will do.
What else is going on around us? Life. Life is still happening. I rebel by taking back my own attention and living my life. Going on a double date on Friday – that will be nice. Many nice things when I keep my attention local.
I have no idea what will happen. Part of me thinks they’ll eventually invade to steal our resources (probably in alliance with Russia), and another part of me thinks they’ll bankrupt themselves by throwing god knows how much money into their idiotic strategic bitcoin reserve, which will be an open spigot for the White House and Congress to engage in theft and money laundering. The metaphor about Canada living upstairs above the thousand pound, meth-snorting baboon has never been more accurate. We can only hope it overdoses and goes into a coma without torching the building.
Unless he’s yoda trump will not be around in 30 years. I may not be around either. There are more credible immediate threats. To me one of the biggest is if there’s no election in 3.x years in the US. Either way what can I do about it. Worrying doesn’t actually change anything in the world. It’s not action it’s just worrying. What can I do? Nothing. So tonight I will have a bubble bath and listen to my podcast. Tomorrow I will go to work and yoga. Life goes on.
Ahhh good question! They put an alert tracker on the title at BC Land Title and when anything changes on an owner builder title they get an alert at BC Housing Owner Builder office.
Dee, I’m with u on that one , I wouldn’t loose any sleep over Canada becoming the 51st state . Our future is rosy , trump is just a bully negotiator and that’s it
I take the threat of annexation very seriously. The chance that it comes to pass is remote given NATO, but not impossible. Trump is making exactly the same claims about Canada re. border legitimacy plus disrespect that Russia did before invading Ukraine. And lies, lots of lies, to justify the invasion.
At some point the US is going to need Canada’s water – likely within the next 30 years – unless there is some incredible advancement in desalination or conservation. It is going to become a major geopolitical issue. If aggression becomes normalized by the US against its allies these relationships are likely to break down.
The bigger issue we have is that one of the “free world” countries, a NATO member, is blatantly disregarding international law and longstanding relationships codified in law. This signals a change in views and values and potential alliances that is destabilizing. Something I’ve never worried about before.
I don’t take the threat of annexation seriously. I mean why even use the word annexation – what does that mean? Sounds like a euphemism for invasion. I’m happy some people in government in Canada do take it seriously because the harm that would happen is so huge that even if the probability of it happening is small someone should have ab eye on it. But not me as an ordinary folk. Its just another stupid threat by a madman.
No he is not actually.
This is why Canada has filed a complaint to the CUSMA and the WTO.
And re “anything else” annexing Canada would be an act of war under international law and violates NAFTA and both England and France have nuclear weapons. We need to solidify our relationships on this with the UK and France, although I believe they would come to our defence.
That story about the widow trying to finish the house her husband started is disgusting. Is there no compassion anymore, only bureaucracy. How would they have found out he died, is there a position that reads the obituaries every day?
Toronto, The U.S is free to do what it wants , trump is within his rights to apply tariffs or whatever else as is Canada . I do not take his yammering personally and for myself it is just the business of negotiating and I’m ok with that
More like an organized crime turf war, without the shooting. Which is the Orange One’s role model in other respects, in the view of some.
One of the owner builder emails today….yup in a housing crisis the government refusing to remove a barrier to housing that is 110% useless for the sake of employing a bunch of people doing nothing at BC Housing. I mean they are doing something – they placed a stop work order on this retired widowed lady – nothing more productive that we can be doing as a society with our resources. Homeless issues, health care a disaster, but no we have the resources to go after this lady over a policy that was introduced to solve a problem that never existed.
I am sure once she passes this exam memorizing gas meter clearances even thought she is trying to finish a home in an area where there is no natural gas, we will all sleep safer at night.
“Good afternoon Marko,
Thank you so much for your video and your willingness to help people with this.
My husband took this exam, passed, and we had a permit to build our house in the xxxxxxx. He has been building this house himself with whatever help I can give him. He was xxxxx years old, I am xxxxxx. Last summer he was killed while xxxxx[traffic accident]xxxxx. As his owner builder authorization is non-transferrable, a stop work has been placed on me. I requested a modified exam as the house is up, framed, and has a roof. There were a couple of walls that needed to be put up inside, and some bracing in the trusses. I was refused a modified exam because BC housing does not consider the house framing complete because there is no siding on the house. My ability to fulfill both my husband’s and my dream of completing this house to retire in is slowly dying.
I am going to take this test, and as many times as I need to. I have no choice.
Any resources you would be willing to send me would be much appreciated.”
A trade war isn’t just “business” because it’s not about companies competing on price and quality—it’s about governments interfering with trade by imposing tariffs and restrictions. Unlike private businesses, which are constrained by market forces and antitrust laws, governments can override competition entirely, forcing businesses into political battles that raise costs, disrupt supply chains, and often hurt both sides instead of helping. While big corporations may try to influence markets through lobbying or exclusivity deals, they can’t impose tariffs or block competitors outright the way governments can in a trade war.
I hear Trump is considering throwing in Croatia into the Ukraine deal.
Groot, nice to have some company in this dust up, I would be hard pressed to call it a trade war , it’s just business
Croatia in general. Might also detour into a few neighbouring countries.
Canada is not alone in the Trump trade war. And there is now a European movement to boycott American goods and services.
https://youtu.be/KSvu5ouqUEU?si=aFA5Lq4DUim5Pd0q
Cool sidekick you’re going to Zagreb? Marko where on the coast do you recommend? Dubrovnik?
I’ve always supported buying Canadian, for me the main new thing is AVOIDING buying American (where possible) or traveling to the USA. I am 100% fine with buying from and traveling to other countries.
Also I realize that people travel to the states for all sorts of good reasons (work, family, transit to somewhere else, or simply pre-booked, money-all-sunk vacations) so I’m not condemning people who do travel there.
Hope you go down to the coast too. Zagreb is nice for a city, but the coast is something else.
Thanks!
Too many things to list 🙂
Sljeme Cable Car? I like nature so multiple times a week we take the tram from our place and do a two hour hike – eat at a resturant at the top (the cool thing about hiking in Croatia is most hikes have a resturant at the top with homemade style food) and then we take the cable car down mountain + tram back home. I love Europe you can do so much such as go hiking without dealing with cars/traffic.
Often on the way down in the cable car I film a video on real estate in Victoria 🙂 – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v-Kz03jFG0&t
Old town Zagreb is also really cool, all the streets around the main square/old town are pedastrian only.
Maksimir Park is also a fav of mine (about 5x the size of Beacon Hill Park) just a 10 min tram ride from main city square. Has 5 lakes, a zoo, and cool places on little hilltops to grab drinks overlooking parts of the park.
I walk around Victoria a lot and so many missed opportunities, like why aren’t there food trucks/caffee or something infront of the Delta Hotel? Just a ton of ugly pavement in a south facing waterfront location. Why not a little caffee resturant somewhere in Beach Hill Park where you can only get to on foot.
Shite no I’m the best man for the job lol
90% of Canadians recently polled want to buy Canadian. And the majority are willing to pay more for it.
There are a few things: 1. your sample size is small 2. did you state that other firms are owned by US companies? 3. people don’t always give feedback verbally. Odds are it will matter to some people.
I’m glad you are not in charge. Also likely means you are quite protected from short-term impacts – possibly due to being at or near retirement with enough assets/income to be okay.
Analysts predict that the tariffs could lead to a 2.6% decrease in Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by early 2026, potentially pushing the economy into a recession. Quebec has projected 100,000 in job losses. And then there is the impact on cost of groceries and other consumer goods. Plus impact on inflation in general and cost to taxpayers for all the subsidies that will be rolled out.
And then there is the general threat of annexation.
Hopefully this gets settled soon.
Soooo, trump throws on tariffs and the boc cuts rates and the dollar goes up a penny lol
Totoro, I’m sure there’s a lot of chatter going on at the federal level as trumps threats of tariffs havnt amounted to much . I myself am not too phased by it all and don’t see the crises . Trump doesn’t really have to do much other than chirp on to get under the skin of most Canadians
Speaking personally, we have two trips to the US which were planned and pre-paid prior to Trump. They’re expensive enough (for us) that we’re not going to walk away from them. After that though, forget it.
Which reminds me – Marko – any suggestions for being a tourist in Zagreb?
Only three flights to Las Vegas today out of Vancouver, maybe Buy/Stay Canadian is starting to work?
Recently at listing presentations I’ve brought up Fair Realty being 100% locally founded/owned/operated with no licensing fees/franchising fees going to the US to some international brand. The sellers look at me like why are you even bringing this up (no one has even verbally responded with something like “we can appreciate that” or similar)….all they really care about is getting the most for their home 🙂
There is the internet and then there is reality.
Ford would do much better than Poilievre in a federal election.
Grassroots is one thing, but a coordinated unifying national campaign is another. The federal government should have been ready to roll this out immediately after the executive order was signed, along with messaging to Canadians. This is urgent – we had a group of people volunteering their time to do this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3f62vABoN4 While I appreciate this, we need much more because we need to deal with lies being told to US citizens.
Um, how about someone at the federal level doing what Doug did on the US TV circuit? This is a national issue of high importance. The kind of thing that is the responsibility of the federal government to respond to re. threat to national security interests and trade agreements. And they knew, or ought to have known, this was a realistic possibility. Ford did well for Ontario, but we need a Federal pr campaign that leverages social media and AI pronto that hits in the US to combat disinformation. A public awareness campaign on how tariffs impact everyday Canadians and Americans is an important strategy piece.
Why have premiers been operating piecemeal? Could it be because there was no immediate or proactive federal response coordinating with the provinces and with Alberta in particular? Dealing with Alberta’s sense of being wronged is imperative. They hold the single biggest asset we can leverage for all of Canada.
No trade diversification incentives for business were announced upon signing of the order. That should have been ready to roll out. Where is the evidence of proactive federal meetings with business leaders in Washington and state governors heavily impacted by this? Only person doing this that I saw was Ford. Where is the public announcement of a plan to diversify energy exports?
IMO many of the things that should have been rolled out quickly and were the responsibility of the federal government did not happen because of chaos at the top.
I guess “regular citizens” is our new euphemism for people who own a lot of real estate.
I wasn’t saying bc assessment is accurate at all, I am just saying its tough to get much higher in that neighborhood for that house. The one you referenced (4249 oakview) is at the end of the cul-de-sac with what looks to be pretty new renovations and has a 2 bed suite which should be able to carry an extra 250k in mortgage on a cash basis. I personally would not pay $2M to end up in that neighborhood but to each their own. With that said the sale at 4229 oakview seems to be the best deal at 1.43 also with a 2 bed suite.
I don’t know about you, but I sure hope Marko is able to preserve his real estate wealth.
and the other sale on Oakview went for $108,000 over and having personally shown Oakview there is a reason why one sold $108,000 over and the other $230,000 under. Market is fairly efficient for the most part and certainly more reflective of market value than BC Assessments.
Sites are commonly sold after zoning approval and before construction but how common is beneficial transfer? In general it’s a loophole and closing loopholes is good, but curious about this part. Also depends on nature of sale. Real estate as part of a business? Doesn’t make sense to charge PTT when the business is sold. People wrapping dummy corps around a piece of land then transferring ownership to avoid paying tax? Loophole
For example university heights diff developer did the rezoning vs build out. https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/university-heights-shopping-centre-sold-to-us-firm-on-cusp-on-huge-redevelopment-5198689
Mass email from a law firm in Vancouver
“We all know how heavily taxed regular citizens are. Whether it be income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, flipping taxes, you name it. To add to this, there is one additional tax measure that may be coming to the British Columbia market – the expansion of the Property Transfer Tax to include the taxation of beneficial transfers. There is a strong possibility this expansion of PTT tax will soon be here, so it is best to plan for it now.
Some background – PTT is payable whenever legal title to property is transferred in BC. However, when the beneficial interest is transferred (such as a sale of shares of a company that owns real estate) there is no property transfer tax.
To be clear – we are not saying we support this measure – it would certainly chill investment in the real estate sector and hurt an already weak land/development market. But we just want to bring it up as it is useful background for various tax planning strategies we employ on behalf of clients.
If you ever have any questions about preserving your real estate wealth, please feel free to reach out. We look forward to connecting with you.
All the best,”
Another one on oakview is now sold, 80k under ask and 230k under assessed. Decent family house for 1.47 but the problem is that for another ~10% or ~150k more you can upgrade the neighborhood significantly….
Like what? People are organizing themselves on the BuyCanadian sub and other places. Government getting involved in that is only going to hurt. Good on Doug Ford for talking to the media, but should anyone else? Well that’s up to them. The federal government can’t tell premiers to go on a media tour and if they did it’s more likely to hurt than help. Smith is going to Florida to rail against wokeness with Shapiro, does that count?
Number one thing we should be doing is focusing on our own economy. Good progress is being made on trade barriers per last report, seems like that should be announced soon. Then we’ll probably have a snap election, so things there are already moving pretty quick
BoC, 7th cut in a row now.
And it’s all Trudeau’s fault. Remember what that rascal was up to at the 2019 G7 meeting.
June 2018 Trump instituted tariffs on Canada stating it was because of national security concerns. Throughout his last presidency he repeatedly threatened this.
Now here he is again with an even more aggressive stance and where is Canada’s national response plan? We’ve known he was coming back since the beginning of November 2024 and what he campaigned on.
Trump signed the executive order on Feb. 1 for tariffs against Canada. Where is the national campaign for citizen response? Instead we have turmoil and still no stability at the federal level, although we do now have a plan for retaliatory tariffs. Only Doug Ford has followed a consistent and coordinated plan of appearing on US media. This is a national emergency.
I hope this works.
B.C. looks to poach American doctors during tariff dispute
https://cheknews.ca/rob-shaw-b-c-looks-to-poach-american-doctors-during-tariff-dispute-1243321/
Leo, it’s impressive how much blogging you can do during a Spring Concert 🙂
Really not sure why they don’t just scrap that app. Lots of third party apps work great. Just used the Canada Post authenticator app to vote in the liberal leadership race, worked no problem. Also the third party login through the banks to CRA has worked fine for ages, same with verified by Interac.
I didn’t even talk about this part! Did you have to point your finger at your nose and than wait two days for a BC Government employee to authenticate you, for the third time 🙂
Yea same thing, App didn’t work and I had to install it last year due to my crown lien BS spec tax problems I was changing my address or something. and then I had to re-install it again and get validated again. I am on a Android.
Here ya go Marko. Estimated bedrooms built per capita from a while back (BC)
I figured you were just missing something and wanted to go through the process.
Didn’t even make it past authentication in the B.C. Services app. Apparently my iPhone on the latest stable iOS is not supported. Nevermind I’ve already validated my identity twice in the past but every 6 months it forgets about it.
Not great. I think we recently beat the 70s in raw starts, but once you population adjust it’s quite a bit lower, and once you account for the fact the mix is more towards apartments these days and estimate bedrooms built per capita it’s even worse. Have posted similar charts many times.
Varies by location but about 8 net new units for every 10 starts. Not even remotely irrelevant.
There is always talk about housing starts but never mentioned are the number of houses demolished every year. Making the housing starts number irrelevant.
I think one has to separate politics from economics when it comes to tariffs and counter-tariffs.
Bluster and bravado may win votes but they don’t win negotiations. And that is underscored when a Canada is dealing with a faction in the USA that doesn’t know what they want.
An impossible job for any team of American negotiators when they don’t know where the goal posts are. In contrast Canada has some of the world’s best negotiators. Out of the G7 countries, Canada is the only one that has trade agreements with all the G7 countries.
This time we are going into trade negotiations with the majority of Canadians united. That’s important in that this trade war will cause a recession and increase unemployment in Canada. But when you have the Canadian people standing firm as a country then we will come out ahead relative to a country being dismantled by a maniac septuagenarian that is using the presidency for personal revenge.
Maybe if Donald’s father had hugged him as a child the world wouldn’t be in its present predicament.
What does the trend line look like if we go back to 1970? Just curious 🙂
Nope just raw national starts
Is your chart population adjusted?
As for housing starts, here’s some context on where we are today, where we might go if trend continues unchanged, and where the Liberal target is.
Is the doubling achievable by 2035? Extremely unlikely.
Should we have big hairy audacious goals informed by real estimates of the housing shortage? Definitely.
Way too slow how? The counter-tariffs have always dropped the minute the US puts theirs on. Reality is no one really knows what the best approach is. Go hard and risk Trump going nuclear or go measured and wait until he tires of it? I don’t think there is any clear action that we are failing to take.
He did not remove the tariff just because of Trump’s response. He removed the tariff on the agreement to negotiate in person in Washington. Ford and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick released a joint statement on Tuesday afternoon saying Ford and federal Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc had been invited to the White House.
I’ll take that as a step forward. However, I don’t yet get the sense that Canada is truly on top of this situation. Way too slow in their reaction time and not proactive – where is the national campaign and action plan?
Still support what Ford has been and is doing. Still think tolling trucks is not a smart move.
I’m pretty sure anything on BCLS shelves is on consignment. Suppliers get paid as it sells.
Will our proposed toll on American goods transiting BC to Alaska come back to bite us?
The Americans may well retaliate by tolling Mexican goods being trucked to BC. As Doug Ford recently learned, discretion is the better part of valour.
…
They are paying OT to union workers to pull the items that’s already been paid for. Big brain NDP moves.
I went through the registration….horrible design. I got stuck at uploading the proof of principal residence and had to phone in for assistance. Turns out you need to upload three different items for proof of principal residence and I had uploaded only one but no where does it tell you when you click submit that it won’t submit because you’ve only uploaded one item, not three.
Also asked for unit number/address and PID number….not sure why they need both because they are tied together. I can just imagine an older person trying to find their PID number and some of the other things.
Scanned my licence to setup the BC Card App on my phone (required to register) then had to upload my driver’s again as one of the documents for proof of principal residence. They can’t even link two of their own systems.
It is kind of embrassing how bad anything the government does is. The one brightspot really is the BC Land Title System, from what I’ve seen being licenced in another country and read online it is one of the best if not the best in the world.
The BC liquor employees are going to have one heck of a Christmas Party then. During the last trade storm I stopped buying Kentucky Bourbon and switched to Tequila and never went back. That’s a problem with extended trade wars in that states like Kentucky have to work hard to reestablish their brands once the tariffs are lifted.
We have many very old hot wheels cars. Hmmm….
Re mass airbnb email, I read the provincial registration system is taking people money even if they live in a municipality where STRs are banned via bylaw. Man the gov really needs to get it together — that’s not cool.
I heard an interview with the owner of Oak Bay Cork & Brew where he said that American products were pulled from gov’t liquor stores, but not removed from the BCLDB warehouses. He went on to say that private liquor stores are still able to purchase American spirits.
I worked for an eccentric old timer in Vancouver that had a huge showcase of British lead soldiers in the office. Must have been close to a thousand of them all in their regiments. The rule was if you touched them – you were fired.
He’s probably buried with them by now.
Should have collected Hot Wheels. Check eBay completed sales, few are selling over$800.
That’s a shame, about eBay, as I have a collection of 1930’s touch tip Ronson lighters that I was thinking of selling.
https://treasurefinejewelry.com/products/ronson-1938-art-deco-machine-age-black-maltese-clock-touch-tip-lighter
According to my friend who has been selling on eBay from the start, they notified sellers that sales under $800 will not be subject to tariffs.
A sudden policy shift by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has left builders and real estate investors scrambling, as the agency moves to block bundling single-family home purchases under its Mortgage Loan Insurance Select (MLI Select) program. Critics argue the unexpected change may jeopardize millions of dollars in planned housing projects.
At the end of February, CMHC informed lenders that it would no longer approve MLI Select applications unless at least five rental units were in the same building and on the same lot. Previously, investors could bundle adjacent single-family, semi-detached, and townhouse properties into a single application.
This financing model helped insure 206,157 housing units, generating $47 billion in “insured volume” during the first three quarters of 2024
Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional (CMP) March 6, 2025
According to a developer, the rejection may mean developers must seek alternative financing, requiring a 20% down payment or costly private lending. Some industry experts believe CMHC is trying to prevent large commercial investors from dominating the market.
In Canada, private equity firms and other institutional investors own about 20% (estimated at 350,000 apartment suites in Canada) of the country’s rental housing with more than six units. A Parliamentary committee indicating that the 25 largest firms may corner the market and sharply increase rents driven by a profit motive, unlike traditional mom-and-pop landlords, who are mainly looking for a steady source of income. Moreover, individual landlords are fragmented and cannot control the market.
-Real Estate Institute of Canada (REIC) July 5, 2024.
Airbnb mass email….
“Apply for a provincial registration number today
To continue hosting in British Columbia, you need to get a provincial registration number from the Province of British Columbia.
You must add your provincial registration number to your listing page before May 1st.
After the deadline, listings missing a provincial registration number will be removed from the platform and upcoming reservations starting June 1st will be cancelled.
We strongly recommended starting the registration process now as it can take some time to complete.”
Definitely. Letting immigration numbers swing wildly was such an unforced error on the part of Trudeau. Super dumb mistake but also not one either party is about to repeat.
Then the main other roles of the federal government is to hand out money. Seems to me that CPC is not a fan of federal funding of housing so this is likely the main difference in their approaches.
So in other words, the United States will soon be filing for bankruptcy.
Yes. And he has lots of close contacts and connections who would benefit from this.
I mean, the stock market can’t go up forever and there are always going to be crashes, they just usually aren’t the result of one immoral person’s late-night tweets. I’m not enjoying being impacted by this without any fair recourse.
Interesting to watch the different negotiating tactics being used by Doug Ford and the Liberal government. The Liberal’s seem to be using Nash Game Theory while Doug Ford’s is one of force and escalation. I don’t see any reason why Canada and the provinces can not utilize both and end up in a good cop -bad cop negotiation technique.
Some may think of Trump’s tactics as being similar to that of the school yard bully but he actually does have some “sound reasoning” why he is doing what he is doing with ludicrous supersized tariffs. Sound reasoning if the USA was largely an agrarian pre income tax economy of the 1930’s as in the times of President McKinley or the economy of present day Argentina. However, that is not the economy of the USA today as it’s economy in highly interwoven with other economies. It’s the difference between pulling a piece of string and pushing a string.
Let’s also recognize that Trump’s negotiation technique stems from being a real estate mogul. He will most likely draw on his experiences negotiating real estate deals. Canada being the tenant and America the landlord. What Canada has to do is show that they have other options rather than renewing at his terms. That includes pipelines, reducing or eliminating inter-provincial tariffs, expanding trade agreements with other countries as well as using the Good Will Canada has developed with the UK, European Union, Pacific Rim, and British Commonwealth countries. Canada selling itself as being the stable country of choice when it comes to trade agreements.
And lastly, I believe Trump is ignorant of the differences between the two countries. One example being liquor stores. BC and Ontario pulled every bottle of American booze off the shelves of every liquor store in a day. You can’t do that in America. It isn’t just the power to impose tariffs – it is also the power to restrict supply. How you restrict supply can be as important as how much quantity is restricted. The Northern states are now sourcing other power grids in America and that could cause shortages in other parts of America rising market prices. Which is what happened in Texas a couple years back with its snow storm. The power system in Texas is made up of private companies that had to bid at higher and higher rates against each other to obtain supply.
No one wins a trade war, both of our economies will be bludgeoned. Some provinces and states will suffer more than others. The best solution on how to win a trade war is illustrated in the game of tic-tack-toe. Where the only winning strategy is not to play the game at all.
Also no GST on rental properties. Problem is with investors being wipped out more rental construction is offset by less strata construction. For example, pre-sale market in Toronto went for some 30,000 sold units a few years ago to 9,000 units sold last year which means completions of such are going to be down big time by the time 2028/2029 rolls around. Yes, some is offset by more rentals but at all the data I am looking at no where close to get us to 300,000 per year (and I know I am talking completions versus starts but long story short is I don’t see us hitting 275,000 in the next 5 years with the investor driven out of the marketplace).
100% agree with you, I don’t think Pierre will actually move the needle on anything. I don’t think he will do any DOGE style moves either, maybe limit government growth by retirement at best. Housing I think best case scenario is 275,000/year starts within 5 years irrelevant of who is in power and I would personally bet AGAINST hitting 275,000 in the next 5 years.
That is why I am hoping for another liberal minority. Obviously things aren’t that bad yet if people want the same party we’ve had for nine years to come back for another four. Then I am banking on things actually becoming bad enough where people wake up and there are some real changes.
The country has the resources to be very rich with a very high standard of living. The problem is the management of our country, imo.
Beyond returning temporary immigration to pre-pandemic levels, another of the few federal measures to have positive impact re housing starts was CHMC financing for rental properties no?
Canada need a plan to decouple with the US. Let the US know that Canada has a Plan B other than retaliate. The US has a population which is 10 times bigger than Canada. Canadians will suffer 10 times more than Americans during the tariff war.
Was thinking about this as I drove to a showing this morning. Elon’s brother sold 33 million worth of Tesla stock around $350 (I shorted the stock that day). What prevents Trump from phoning Elon with what he is going to do and Elon letting a bunch of people know to buy back in.
I am guess if he backed off the tariffs completely S&P500 would have a 3% up day.
It isn’t that simple. You tell the buyer let’s say 50% cash back and then they don’t like that house or it doesn’t work out with that house and then the conversation becomes very awkward at the next home, and 20 homes later as they still expect that 50% cash back you agreed to on the one house.
If a serious buyers really just needed represenation on one property it wouldn’t be difficult for him or her to secure a huge amount of cash back. For example, email a few knowledgable and experienced agents and say “I would to buy a specific home in Oak Bay I’ve identified for $1.5 million and I want the full $24,000 cooperating commission (***commission may vary) rebate; however, I’ll pay you for your service in advance by e-transfering your brokerage $5,000 non-refundable even if it doesn’t work out.”
Last year I sold two properties where the seller paid me upfront and I just sold another property this week where the seller paid me upfront. What I am discovering is the consumer hates the cost of real estate commission; however, they prefer not to take any risk. They want to offload the risk of the property not selling and the real estate agent paying for all the media, etc., and investing his or her time without guaranteed compensation, etc.
That is three properties I’ve now sold at a 40 to 50% discount with upfront payment (i.e., how it works if the listing portion is going to be $15,000 I’ll do it for $7,500; however, seller has to e-transfer my brokerage payment upfront non-refundable not tied to a successful sale). Reality is the vast majority of sellers do not want the upfront discount option as they perceive it ask risky and they would pay thousands more to reduce the risk.
Some also don’t have the money sitting around to pay upfront.
Yep. The last person dumb enough to be honest was Trudeau when he said well this is largely a provincial responsibility. He was absolutely crucified for that one. No politician is going to repeat that mistake.
So Carney is blowing smoke up your behind, got it 🙂
Some Canadian stupidity is also to blame….. cutting off power lol, all that will do is unite the US against Canada. Our politicians are so clever, paying OT to government union workers to remove US liquor that is already paid for off of the shelves so they can’t even get the revenue which can be used to pay those government union workers to remove the items in the first place. LMAO
Stock market down. Caused by one person. Who has no moral compass. Wouldn’t be surprised to find out that his family and circle benefits from this directly. All he has to do is back off on tariffs and the market rises. He is not the guy who should have this power.
Get ready for hard times in Canada if this doesn’t settle soon. My bet is it doesn’t. Time to build some pipelines.
The only thing less realistic than doubling housing starts in 10 years is Pierre Poilievre’s promise to double them in 5. His idea that he’ll force big cities to increase building by 15% per year is a doubling in 5 years
Federal government is the least interesting player in the housing space. Any federal politician that promises they can fix housing is blowing smoke up your behind. People have this exactly backwards and believe that federal government, then provincial, then municipal are the most important players in housing, when in reality it’s exactly the other way around.
Probably the biggest thing the feds could do on housing (steady immigration rather than swinging wildy) they’ve already done. Yes to minor things like reforming the national building code and badgering other levels of governments to be less obstructive, but the rest is up to the provinces and municipalities.
I think everyone should be asking for a cash back/discount. The shitty agents will have to offer cash back to get business and the good ones don’t as often as they would have enough of a referral network where they don’t need to offer discounts. Let the market run its course.
Wouldn’t you just take them to the property and then it’s whether or not to write the offer and that’s it? So like a 2-3 hour of your time maybe including driving time? You can probably narrow the tire kicker down by asking for pre approval etc.
I’m not sure anyone is saying he’s an idiot. I would note that the housing prescriptions you linked to are more or less the same ones the Liberal Party has been promising for years. What about Carney indicates he’s finally going to bring these things to fruition when the Party has failed to do so for years and years?
You are telling me that doubling housing starts is a reasonable comment? Either he is an idiot or he lying.
If he knows something about housing he knows that isn’t possible (in the next several years).
Eh, it’s certainly a loose definition of several but I wouldn’t make too much of it. The 4 million is probably there because of the CMHC report.
Carney is a co-author on this report: https://housingandclimate.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Blueprint-for-More-and-Better-Housing-Mar-2024-EN.pdf
And the prescriptions are generally good. The idea that carney is an idiot that doesn’t know anything about housing is unfounded
I knew it was fake so I posted a comment on the thread asking where the property was located (which they didn’t reply to obviously) and then I got a private message but it was a bot or something.
Surprised you even responded. I thought you’ve explained here a number of times how the people that say they won’t make any work for you are the most difficult to deal with
The only reasonable thing to expect from Carney is a continuation of the status quo. He’s the Liberal Party candidate, and he’ll toe the party line.
I agree with Marko that the housing start numbers are borderline satirical.
I’m not I shut down my account, just saw this on Reddit. All the housing folks left so it wasn’t fun anymore
Why you still using Twitter? 🙂
Individual posting actually contacted me, it is not a legit buyer. I’ve been doing the cash back thing for 15 years and it is very hard business model to implement efficiently. One thing is for certain, those specifically shopping for a cash back deal are by far, on average, the most time consuming and difficult individuals to work with. It always starts “we just need to re-visit this one home we saw at the open house and an agent to write an offer, it will be easy; therefore, what can you offer in terms of cash back” or something along those line. Works out less than 2% of the time.
Funny part is in the comments section all the real estate agents posting “I can do at no cost to you.” 🙂
It truly is amazing to see how dumb the average voter is. We haven’t been able to hit housing starts numbers going back 50 years and he is going to double 227k and build 4 million homes in the next few years when it will probably take 12 to 15 years to do such.
Why not come out with something reasonable like I will work hard to implement XYZ policies to get us up to 275,000 to 300,000/year within the next 5 years? Like something that has a small chance at realistically coming to fruition versus just blatantly lying.
Why didn’t he give some of this great doubling 227k advice to Trudeau in the last 10 years, lol.
Good point. The fact that projections barely changed in the last 2-3 years makes me wonder if that’s even taken into account
This is going well
All Carney is doing is lying through his bad teeth. If people are too stupid to see that, Canada is doomed. He probably idolizes Trudeau.
LMAO someone is setting up an auction for cash back realtors on the Vancouver Island housing FB site.
I wonder how much the PTT exemption threshold raised to $835,000 – $860,000 for 1st time buyers and $1.1 – $1.15 million for new builds impacts these projections.
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-next-pm-working-w-vancouver-condo-king-on-foreign-investment/
Just wait till their next model – it will be the fascist car on the road.