February market steady but surge on pause
Well the trade war is on again, but it’s far from clear what it will do to the Victoria market. On the negative side, it’s bad for consumer confidence and likely to drive up unemployment, while on the positive side it might encourage / force the central bank to lower rates. Lowering rates has been successful against a number of shocks in the past, so one should never underestimate the power of that lever as a way to stabilize the market.
Speaking of rates, they dropped back in September and ignited a surge in the market, but that seems to be petering out. Whether it’s because rates didn’t continue to drop, or whether it’s because the economic uncertainty is starting to bite, the big year over year sales increases are in the past. February sales were only 12% above those a year ago, with the biggest increase in condo sales (+26%), followed by detached (+9%) with townhouses about even.
February came in with sales 11% lower than the 10 year average.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, you can see the pullback from the more active fall period in every category. That said, single family and condo sales are still a little higher than they’ve been for most of the past 3 years.
For the first time in nearly a year, seasonally adjusted inventory is breaking out to the upside again. Note that the chart below was swapped from residential inventory to all inventory. It doesn’t change the pattern, but that causes less confusion with the figure that is publicly released by the VREB.
That’s entirely due to new listings, which have remained quite strong. The 12 month sum of new listings is higher than we’ve seen it since 2012. This is still well within normal ranges, but it’s keeping the market well supplied. All those frustrated sellers that didn’t hit their target price in the last few years didn’t just go away, they’re still out there wanting to sell.
2025 assessments didn’t show huge changes from 2024, but overall single family assessments dropped a little, which means we have to start a new price/assessed value chart (here’s the last one relative to 2024/2023 assessments which were essentially unchanged on average). The median house went for 6% over the 2025 assessment in both January and February, and the median condo went for 2% over. Note however that’s mostly due to to the changing baseline. If we look at the sales that still had their 2024 assessments in the system, the median house went for exactly assessed value, and the median condo went for 1% less than assessed. So don’t connect the 2025 chart to values in the previous one, they are relative to different baselines.
Median prices of condos have been on a bit of an uptick lately, but too early to say if it’s more than noise.
Just like I mentioned last week, we continued to see more over-ask sales than we’ve seen so far this year. In fact the rate approximately doubled, to 13% of sales for the last 14 days. Like last week, most of those are detached homes in the core under $1.5M.
Overall though, the market is very solidly balanced. Months of inventory are pointing to a mild sellers market, sales to new list to a mild buyers market. Overall that averages to balanced.
Which way will it tip this year? Or will we keep creeping along the middle? Stay tuned.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/03/10/blood-from-a-stone/
Every investor on the internet is a genius.
>> show only 0.2% of accounts in Canada are over 200k so not sure what everyone else is doing but it clearly isn’t working very well.
To have a balance >$200k would require 9% returns on a fully funded TFSA. The low numbers indicate that few Canadians invest fully or prefer to shelter their highly taxed investments (GIC) inside a TFSA and lightly taxed investments (stocks, Divs) outside .in non-regulated account.
That’s an understatement. As I said this guy is worse than Treaudu in my opinion. If he gets in I would be willing to bet a lot of money we don’t get to 275k starts by the end of his 4 years let alone doubling 227k wtf is he smoking.
Also, what does he mean by several years? I can’t see any scenario where 4 million homes doesn’t take at least 12 years even if we ramp from 227k to 400k/year which is far fetched.
Makes sense. Air travel is generally booked in advance and often can’t be cancelled. Vehicle trips are easier to change and put off.
Mr. Carney has indicated a big part of his platform is to build 4 million new homes in the next few years… That seems slightly hard to believe. I’m looking forward to understanding how this will work, and how we will pay for it, but here is an overview: https://markcarney.ca/housing
CBC’s The National reporting return trips to the US by vehicle down 23% in February. Air travel down 2.4%.
The best performing investors are ones who are dead.
The worst investment decision of my life. It’s 1968, I’m 13, my aunt brings me a 19 cent Hot Wheels, a VW Beetle with red line tires. I take one look at it and say “don’t buy any more of these”. I should have dropped out of school, got 4 paper routes, cut grass, shoveled snow and bought every Hot Wheels I could find. Most sell for hundreds, some thousands or more. Would have made millions on a couple thousand dollars investment.
Man their are some smart cookies on here when it comes to markets , it really reinforces how much of a knuckle dragger i am lol
Sorry Marko by rough I meant all 3 stocks haven’t had much if any capital growth in the last 3 to 4 years although the dividend have been decent and they should perform well now as value divided stocks.
Everyone is an investment genius after the fact lol, just stick to whatever you are doing Marko looks like you are doing better than most actively managed portfolios.
Certainly didn’t perform to S&P500 standards whatsoever but I don’t know about “very rough.” Fortis is at an all time high+dividends. Telus I’ve had forever and it has gone nowhere price wise but the dividend has increased multiple times (and I think relatively safe compared to BCE). Sienna has been my best performer, I didn’t even know the company existed until COVID hit and it was in the news every day. Siennas chart doesn’t look impressive but I’ve been paid out $4/share in dividends in 4.5 years and it trades at only $16/share. Once you apply dividends it’s all pretty decent.
I am over >200k TSFA with my very boring investment strategy and latest numbers show only 0.2% of accounts in Canada are over 200k so not sure what everyone else is doing but it clearly isn’t working very well.
He has indeed done a significant about-face in terms of saying he wants to fast-track development permits etc. and talking tough re the US. But ok, what do we wish Eby was doing that he’s not? Well, he inherited about a $5 billion surplus from Horgan and turned it into a projected $10 billion or so deficit in very short order, didn’t he? I want him to stop doing that. Did you see a lot of value for that money spent? & now no dry powder when we actually need it? Maybe he can just stop doing that.
I agree he’s saying the right things now, I just pay more attention to what politicians do rather than what they say.
It sounded good to me too, but then my next thought is ok so then US tolls all trucks transiting the US from Mexico to Canada, so not so good after all.
Marko, those stocks you named earlier have had a very rough last few years. I also kept my telco holdings when I liquidated most of my holdings earlier in Jan, the value dividend stocks that have been beaten up are now seen as offering good value with their dividends. Yes, many growth stocks were priced to perfection and like a dry forest didn’t take much to ignite and burn. Earlier this year I mentioned this and specifically with Apple which I feel will eventually trade down to support well under $200 as much like Tesla it has a mostly stale product offering and has very little revenue growth (apple that is, although I guess now Tesla also with its dramatic sales slowdown recently).
As I noted in that post, we are only 40 million. 40 million x 15 versus 1,450 million x 2 and as India develops so will that TPY, or should we keep them economically suppressed so they can’t increase their standard of living.
At this point who cares. We die as a nation or we sell our product(s) and thrive as a nation. Take your pick.
You either sell labour or you sell a product. No one wants our labour, everyone wants our vast available products.
Labour can be physical or hard work. Labour can also refer to an occupation or job such as a school teacher.
There is no other fundamental way to make money in the economic sense.
CO2 Emissions per capita
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-per-capita/
I wrote a few weeks ago on HHV you would have to be an idiot to be trading Tesla at around $350 🙂
Of course probably a lucky guess on my part made a few $ shorting for fun but when I saw the new Model Y pricing in various markets plus EV rebates gone in most countries my gut feeling was they were going to be in huge trouble on the sales numbers front.
As someone who has had Teslas for 10 years the product is just too stale (depsite still being the best imo) to be excited about buying another one and then Elon just pouring gasoline on the fire. If you are weighing Tesla vs competitor and it’s a close decision Elon’s antics can be what swing one in another direction.
Somehow I was up on the day with my boring array of dividend companies like Sienna Senior Living, Telus, Fortis etc.
Trend chasing stock pickers getting crushed this year.
Reminds me of the return in the ARKK fund which was all in on innovation and Cathie Wood dropped a lot of comments on how indexing was stupid when the new tech companies would capture all the value. Since inception the average dollar invested in her fund lost 25%. Brutal.
Tesla stock lost 15% today. 6 more days like that and I’ll be richer than the richest man in the world. Easy come, easy go. He’ll still have 1700 lawsuits to deal with. Like his rockets, Elon is going to crash and burn.
Marko, lets move on i need to workout.
Ford says he is willing to shut off the electricity entirely to three states: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcqeGG0D-Gc
While I admire the resolve, it is madness if it gets to that – and likely to turn some Americans against Canada – plus everyone loses from this move for not much strategic leverage. You get more with tariffs. Someone needs to be coordinating the national response asap.
I still don’t follow.
Personally, I would be looking at what each quadplex unit might sell for as a finished product in that location. You also can’t ignore capital and risk factors in addition. $500k more for a lot is not exactly peanuts in terms of capital and carrying costs.
Global fossil fuel demand will likely peak before 2030 according to the IEA.
Marko, you take the same home on each of the lots and I bet the home on Dunlevy easily goes for 300K to 400K more as indicate by the assessed value of the land.
Fossil fuel consumption worldwide is increasing. Why? Because population growth is always increasing. Especially where they least need more people.
What does the assessment have to do with anything? Dunlevy lot would also require three level units with the main floor on the second floor and bedrooms on third floor which isn’t ideal for downsizers (reason being site coverage bylaw). On Oakdowne at least you benefit with great south facings views secondary to the three stories, on two of the units.
Marko, the lot is bigger on Dunlevy and assessed at almost 400K more and the location would command a much much bigger premium for downsizing buyers and on an attractive corner lot.
No DP is required in Saanich for SSMUH. Not sure if this particular project is SSMUH compliant but I don’t see a related DP so I suspect they are building within zoning.
Way lower priced properties you can build a quadplex on such as below link (the front two units would have really good south facing city views and distance ocean glimpses). Rear two units nice yards.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27770698/3080-oakdowne-rd-oak-bay-henderson
Ideally I want to build a rental sixplex in the COV not a luxury quadplex in Oak Bay. Starting to feel the strata fees on the rental condos I currently have. Sixplex would be no common space no elevator no parkade so way cheaper per unit to maintain versus condo strata fees.
Marko, that is what I meant about the carbon tax that we are too early and need other to join in to stay competitive.
I regularly run by 2830 Dunley in my neighbourhood, it would be perfect for a MM or townhomes as its on a 11,500 foot lot, but priced with that in mind? Contact me if your interested in that lot for a project and need a partner.
Marko, the minimal positive impact of a carbon tax in a country with 0.6% of the global population is in no way comparable with a system of government which doesn’t work at all. The latter is great in neither theory nor practice.
Building permit thought. Did they make them go through a DP beforehand?
Starting to see some permits issued under SSMUH in Saanich. A place near me which had a lot split into 3 and they built 2 $2.5-$3M mansions is now building a fourplex on the last lot. 4 months to issue the permit which is.. ok?
https://online.saanich.ca/Tempest/OurCity/Prospero/Details.aspx?folderNumber=BLD21002
It’s not impossible because Kelowna did just that. Can’t say I’d hold my breath for Oak Bay, but I think hopefully we can eventually land at a buildable set of regulations and ~3-6 months building permits for most CRD munis.
A reduction in bureaucracy would help a lot too. I’ve been making low offers on missing middle potential properties for the last two years without success as I simply want a deal if I am going to go through the painful process of building such a rental project. If the COV or Oak Bay for example, rolled out a program with pre-approved sixplex (COV) or fourplex (Oak Bay) plans that you can select and they would turn around a building permit in less than 30 days I would increase my offers by at least 10%.
Ya lots of excitement for missing middle rezoning but it looks so far to be a dud . Need wind in the market and costs to fall in line and they are not there .
Not a lot of appetite right now for multi-plex and missing middle projects.
This one is back on the market -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27991204/1606-bank-st-victoria-jubilee
Seeing some decent price reductions in Oak Bay on land/teardowns that can accomodate fourplexes -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27851001/2501-wootton-cres-oak-bay-henderson
My theory on this is now that a few have started builders/developers are cluing in as to the process and costs due to various fees of building such are not friendly. The limited end-product available so far is actually selling well. The one strata 8-plex in Esquimalt developer hasn’t even finished and has sold 7 out of 8 units for very strong prices.
Great in theory just like communism. Reality is climate change (very real and concerning in my opinion) is a global issue and we are only 40 million people. China and India fart and cause more emissions. We are so worried about the environment, and you literally have lunatics in control of nuclear arsenals that could end civilization as we know it. Putin obviously could care less about sending 100s of thousands of men in their early 20s to death…you think he cares about climate change, common. We need to do what’s best for our standard of living in Canada versus handicapping ourselves for some greater good.
I’ve been saying this for years and in my opinion the best approach to contributing to the environment in a positive manner is exploit our resources as much as we can because if we aren’t selling crude and other to the global market Russia is. With an increased standard of living people have money to buy EVs, install solar panels, etc.
It’s not like if we don’t sell resources the global demands dips, no it doesn’t . It stays the same or increases and I think it makes more sense we sell it than Putin so he can finance killing people and improving balistic missle tech.
Agree that Carneys personal convictions do not match oil and gas development. At all. However, this is what we need right now. He has said he is a pragmatist and will support conventional energy expansion. He will lose the vote if he walks back on this now. He needs to double down and convince Alberta of this.
Frank, its an unpopular opinion but I think the carbon tax is a good thing but unfortunately ahead of its time and i dont say that only because i own an electric car :). Its obvious we need to reduce our fossil fuel usage and habits for future generations but most people are lazy and generally won’t change if its inconvenient for them. Well the capital gains tax increase wasn’t wise but it would make sense to eliminate the principal residence capital gain exemption to direct personal investment away from housing as an investment , but that would be political suicide as again people don’t want to see their home value go down or sacrifice for younger generations to be able to afford a house.
Carney won’t cancel the carbon tax or the capital gain increase, he’s another lying liberal.
At this point that is my preferred outcome as I don’t think Pierre will actually do much in reality. Hopefully the minority can be stable enough to last another four years so the standard of living continues to detoriate in Canada and some really changes come after that when everone wakes up. In my opinion Carney is actually worse than Trudeau, but is now trying to mask his underlying principles by cancelling the carbon tax, etc.
Have to love a post on Reddit the other day. A pedestrian randomly hit in the face with a skateboard downtown at corner of Quadra and Balmoral. Went to emerg with a bloody nose and left emerg after 8 hours of waiting for care (I know this isn’t directly tied to the federal government but just a reflection of things on the whole in Canada).
I am also predicting we will elect a Liberal minority government in the upcoming federal election.
Month March March
Year 2025 2024
Net Unconditional Sales 153 587
New Listings 429 1,309
Active Listings 2,747 2,647
Sales and new listings in-line with last year give or take and expect active listings to increase by 200 by end of March so will finish with around 2,950 active listings +/-.
“Jean Chrétien promised to “axe the tax” in the 90’s, referring to the GST.”
I was in University back then and dating a girl who was a policy analyst and I ended up working on that campaign in Ontario.
Markets getting crushed again today, I cant help but think were going to go down another 5-10% before Trump taps out and announces a cancellation of all tariffs and the market skyrockets with his buddies getting advance notice of his announcement.
Its almost impossible to time the market but i am very greatful I sold over 80% of my equities at the beginning of 2025 for tax reasons and have slowly been going back in the last few weeks on big down days, with an underweight the US, in addition to some profitable day trading of the swings. I think todays big down day wont get a buy the dip mentally and were headed back down closer to 5,300 on SP500.
Carney is going to attract the votes of many “soft conservatives,” IMO. It’s shaping up to be a very competitive election.
It doesn’t matter how much tax they take from us, they’ll always find a way to spend it, and more.
Nevermind we don’t want them to get the idea of tolling all the trucks moving goods from Mexico to here
I am shocked it was lowered from 7% to 5% – can’t see anything like that happening in this day and age.
Yeah, I just read that most goods delivered to Alaska arrive by sea, so tolling, if enacted, wouldn’t be very impactful.
Good thing he didn’t. I’ll take proper fiscal management over slogans any day
Jean Chrétien promised to “axe the tax” in the 90’s, referring to the GST. He didn’t. I haven’t listened to a thing politicians say since then.
I think it will be decided on what happens between now and election day. Whoever seems to be the best candidate against Trump will get the votes. Different game now.
If the Bloc were to align with the liberals + NDP in terms of forming a coalition I think it has gone from >90% conservative majority to a 50/50 coinflip Liberal minority or Conservative majority.
I’m still thinking the CPC will win this, but gotta say the polls reversal has been shocking. A couple months ago there was some doubt if the Liberals would even retain official party status.
Good point. Also agree that Danielle Smith may be moving in her position and the liberal turn on energy doesn’t hurt.
Tolling US trucks doesn’t seem very strategic. Small market segment and trucking brings revenue along the routes and we supply a lot of the goods sent to Alaska – way more than we get from them. Alaska is small re. pop and only has three electoral votes.
Better to tariff US industries that will bring business to Washington lobby against tariffs – like alcohol, auto, and some agriculture. Good to also have a national campaign to for targeted boycotts of US products coupled with a Buy Canada and Vacation Canada campaign.
I wonder why my last comment posted twice. I didn’t type it in twice.
A few days ago, Eby proposed tolling trucks transiting the province to Alaska. That sounds good to me.
B.C. is a net importer of electricity during droughts. We’re not in the same position as Ontario. Eby and Ford are both doing a great job. Hell, even Danielle Smith appears to have finally gotten the memo. We need to stick together.
If Eby is a little more hesitant to use electricity as a weapon it’s because in the last few years B.C. has sometimes been a net importer of power due to low river flows and reservoir levels.
I, too, think it’s great that Doug Ford appears so often on US television, and it’s particularly effective because he’s a conservative premier leading Canada’s most populous province — and the one that is home to the Canadian auto sector. It’s mainly Republicans that need to be convinced of the folly of this trade war, and that case is best prosecuted by a fellow conservative politician, IMO.
I’m not affiliated with any party. I vote based on platform and risk with a pragmatic view as to who is going to do the best job. You can only make the best decision you can based on what is known at the time.
Right now the elected leader matters more than it normally does. We need someone who can unite Canadians and manage a crisis situation without losing their head. Someone who has strong party backing and who has not been endorsed by Elon Musk. Someone with international negotiating experience and business sense. If that person was heading the conservatives and their platform showed strength I’d vote for them.
My sense is that more Canadians may be willing to vote liberal despite past performance if the party shows unity behind new ideas and a new person. It doesn’t hurt that Carney is from Alberta.
Yep – Doug. Sorry.
Eby is stepping up within BC to an extent, but Doug Ford is putting tariffs on electricity and is on every US TV station and talking in front of every US chamber of commerce that will have or interview him with this message: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuM2h1gcf20
Trump watches a lot of news.
I think you mean his big brother. Rob isn’t rolling out much these days. 🙂
Really? I think Eby has taken a pretty aggressive posture. What do you wish Eby was saying/doing that he is not?
If Polievre gets in I don’t think he will do as much as he promises, but if we have another Liberal + NDP minority I don’t want to hear any complaining 🙂
Agree Trump strengthened Carney a lot but there is no way Polievre is the right guy for these times. Again, what a ridiculous slogan – extremely off putting. I’d say Canadians can be swayed pretty significantly if they see a leader who can stand up to Trump and build alternative trade partnerships. Maybe it is a minority government. At this point I think it comes down to current perception… past is not so relevant anymore.
Probably, but he won’t do better enough to have a majority. His best case outcome is another minority government with the NDP and hopefully they don’t need the Green or Bloc.
Trump saving the Liberals. If Kamal got in Pierre gets in by a massive landslide.
I think he is going to do better than his naysayers predict. What I really care about is that there is no vacuum at the top and that whoever has this position is able to do something like what Rob Ford is rolling out. Never was a fan before, but I am now. He is stepping up and doing what it takes to send a solid message to Americans – way better job than Eby so far.
Bloc would likely not enter any coalition. Instead it would do what it has done in the past, and deal on vote-by-vote basis, support a bill if Quebec was getting something out of it.
So, a 36 day campaign then..lol. Either way, the Federal version of Tommy Douglas’s abomination is likely to be wiped out.
Odds of a majority are like 0.1%; therefore, basically your options are another Liberal minority vs Conservative majority.
Sorry my political ignorance but if it neither Liberal + NDP or Conservatives had a majority who would the Bloc lean towards forming a coalition with in that scenario?
Canada Elections Act
The writ will drop this week and probably only be a 3 week campaign (under guise of needing a seat, mandate and current crisis). Carney wants to keep his new car smell and the positive media attention. If he tries to drag it out, he will stutter, stumble and start wearing the stank of the last 10 years. The Toronto media will give him a pass for a bit, but if he’s out there for several months he will make too many rookie mistakes that the media can’t ignore and poll numbers will quickly drop for the Libs again.
86% in his favour. Carbon tax gone and no cap gains increases. I can get behind Canada Strong rather than Polievre’s Canada First – who wants to be like America? Big emphasis on working together on moving fast on new trade relations and growing both traditional and green energy. Seems like oil and gas is going to get a big boost.
Well there u have it prime minister mark carney , next a big fat rate cute and let’s get the party started
Thanks, totoro. It seems like you derive a lot of benefit from AI. My life and tasks are so simple that I can’t really see AI providing much value for me, LOL.
And I’m constantly surprised and disappointed by what AI can’t do, such as tell me the date of the next American presidential election.
Yes it totally depends on what kind of travel it is. I did prompt chat gpt for some activity ideas and the results weren’t awesome but maybe that’s bc of my prompts.
We’re looking at Morocco next year and some of the itineraries I’ve found are amazing. Basically to tell me efficient routes. Even in Scandinavia I found some helpful itineraries that show cool ways of travel like this massive overnight ferry that has indoor pool etc.
I don’t find established itineraries that useful. Our family does not all like the same thing and I’m not a fan of tourist attractions generally. I’ve found getting a good sequence requires good input criteria and direction with correction if needed. Winging it gets harder when you have a group of people and a budget and you are in a country where English is not widely spoken. Easier since google translate but that is time consuming.
A trick for traveling is to look up established tours and find their itineraries. Probably a better result than chat GPT which doesn’t always sequence things in the best order or can create things that don’t exist.
I don’t think chapgpt would be for me, I’m more of a winger with very little planning lol
I use it for complex project management/logistics and document review and summary, but on a personal level one example might be something like planning and coordinating an extended family trip to a country that does not speak English. You can give ChatGPT criteria, dates, individual preferences, sites, etc. and it will produce a logical customized itinerary including travel times and other suggestions and translations. Send it to family and you input the feedback and it will revise it. You can further direct it to prepare a detailed itinerary with optional activities and tips to send to trip participants. As someone who has spent hours on itinerary management for trips like this I know AI can do what took me hours in minutes. You could apply the same to home renovations to create and adjust a work plan with a direction to reduce costs and optimize efficiency. You need to be the controlling mind, but the more you adjust and refine criteria the better the end plan in way less time and it can research questions that arise and give you answers with references you can check very quickly.
The big caveat with AI is that it can hallucinate ie. make up stuff and it can reference sources which you may not want to rely on. You need to be able to control for this.
Can you give me an example of the above? What AI are you using? What are the complex variables? I’m genuinely curious.
Not only city systems, utility providers as well with scheduling. I’ve found AI is already very good at logical sequencing of complex variables. Saves me lots of time as I used to do this myself.
Yeah would be neat to have a system that can access all city systems and give suggestions for improvements. We’re not quite there yet but getting close.
Max-Have you had your soil tested?
It would be too complex and costly for BC Hydro to always attempt to schedule their work in sync with developers and other city work. And if BC Hydro had to delay their work, the developer would also get delayed. The developer can’t wait around forever.
Sidewalks and roads get dug up all the time by BC Hydro. Let them dig when they want to, as long as they restore it when finished. System might not be ideal, but it works.
I don’t sell any of my signs. There would be no money in it anyway. With these tariffs and the lack of Idaho potatoes, I’m doing just fine growing potatoes in my garage using only the finest locally sourced tires.
Hope you got permission from the creator of Calvin.
Lastly, lets not forget our Ukrainian brethren…
Others might find this sign to be a little bit more suitable…
I find the best way to handle politics is to just hate everyone equally. It really doesn’t matter what part of the world they come from, their all assholes. At the end of the day what can you do about it anyway? Write your MLA? I suppose you could go out and protest and risk doing a 10 to 15 year stretch in the clink as a political prisoner.
I have a 600 sq/ft very well setup woodworking shop downstairs. Since I love woodworking as a hobby, I find it very therapeutic making wooden signs that go against the political grain. For example just today, thanks google images, I made a piss on Trump sign!
Marko’s touched the hot stove many times, and has no plans on stopping.
The sidewalk itself isn’t the problem, it is just concrete at the end of the day. We built this home in 2011 in the Oaklands area -> https://maps.app.goo.gl/vTLpPFsQ5j4VMF5h8
and all the city side concrete work came out to $5,200. There were no consultants involved, no drawings. I remember a lady from COV engineering came out to meet me and to check the forms, signed off and that was it. There was no arborist required for the tree you see in the google street view, etc. Surprisingly the tree hasn’t died as a result of the new sidewalk 🙂
Fast forward to 2022, house in Oaklands area and all the required sidewalk improvements came out to $80k while the price of concrete only doubled. Consultants, reports, our civil engineer and civil drawings, city engineer commenting on the civil drawings and requesting changes such as additional labelling on the drawings, so much non-sense like COV engineering wanted the sidewalk where COV parks thought it would impact the tree root so that was a 6 month delay in figuring out a “solution” and that section ending up being asfalt instead of concrete. Concrete had to be strenght tested with a report submitted to COV, etc.
I have all the files of every project in my OneDrive. 2011 sidewalk – 0 PDFs, 2022 sidewalk = 12 PDFs. Same concrete sidewalk.
I would be hard pressed to do any projects , I think it’s a young man’s game as it’s too bloody stressful. I have taken my hammer to greener pastures and am happy there lol
Xeniya is probably one of the best small developers in Victoria. I sold a townhome in one of her previous projects in Esquimalt and it was really top notch – ICF construction, all the details were immaculate. On her IG account she is at her project every day inspecting little flashing details, calling trades back to do things properly, etc. It helps that she is an architect as well. I don’t think inexperience is a factor here whatsoever.
However, if the developer/GC was inexperienced “didn’t think to touch base with BC Hydro” is simply not possible as you wouldn’t be issued a building permit in the first place. You can’t build a multi-plex and call BC Hydro to hook up power just like that. A project of this nature requires the developer’s electrical engineer to design and work with BC Hydro in advance of the building permit. I am involved in a missing middle project a few blocks away from Xeniya’s and one of the many holds-up over two years was BC Hydro engineering/COV. For example, BC Hydro needed a padmounted transformer on the missing middle project site so the civil engineer drew it up and it was submitted to the COV. COV issued a ton of comments and one of them was the padmounted transformer is too close to a gas line which runs on city property. Civil engineer than got in touch with the BC Hydro engineer who said the clearance to the gas line was fine, as per BC Hydro but he refused to speak with the person at COV and COV was insisting it was too close to the gas line, etc.
EVEN if BC Hydro and the muncipality did communicate there is essentially no mechanism or desire to on the part of staff to try and arrange for the sidewalk work to be done after BC Hydro is done as they want to offload it on the developer. In addition, BC Hydro is not in the business of installing new sidewalks – their mandate is to return things back to as to when they found it. So if they go in before they would just return it as to how they found it and if they go in after new sidewalks are installed they will re-installed new sidewalks but they aren’t going to go in to pre-new sidewalks and install new sidewalks when they are done. That would require too much common sense between BC Hydro and the munciaplity.
Too many other things to list here. For example, the developer has pre-sold 7 of 8 units in this projects and is likely paying 10s of thousands per month in interest costs. She needs occupancy permit to complete on the sales so she can pay off her construction mortgage and if that means completing everything before BC Hydro rips it up so be it. Also, the fact that BC Hydro will rip up her sidewalks and the brand new tree she is planting really isn’t her problem at the end of the day. She was more venting about how dumb things are in general.
The last house we built in the Oaklands area we ran a generator for 6 months because BC Hydro required a 1 m clearance around the power line and the tree conservation officer with the COV refused to let us cut down a few branches off a useless tree to achieve such a clearance. The tree conservation officer came to the site 5 times and the BC Hydro engineer 4 times and they refused to communicate directly to one another, had to go through me.
Until you actually try and build something you 100% have zero clue how ridicolous the bureaucracy is.
“Counterpoint. By on-boarding the cuckoos they made a number of voters either sit out or become extremely reluctant NDP voters.”
Pretty sure there is polling from before the election indicating that a not insignificant number of ex-BC Liberal voters planned to vote for the BC NDP.
Seems reasonable.
What I would say is that AI is very good at optimizing variables with proper data input management and cross-checking. There is no reason for our system to function like this right now because we have easy access to these tools and you don’t need specifically coded programs to use it. There is every reason for adopting new tech and decision-making models to take the insanity out of the decision and permit process.
I understand the American support for DOGE. We are slow to innovate and change because we are complacent and stable enough. Maybe the tariffs and a credible threat of annexation is going to light a fire for efficiency and change rather than more debt spending to shore up status quo. One can hope.
Sure, this particular situation was dumb. Shift one work by a month and save 6 figures.
But let’s say we have 3 things that happen over the span of 30 years.
Those three things are nearly impossible to coordinate because they need to be done on different schedules. If the road needs work but he infrastructure still has 10 years of life left it’s not an easy call whether to do it all at once (also budget issues) at whether to do one thing now and the other in 10 years
The city does try to do 2 when doing 3, but it’s not always possible.
The main optimization here is to stop forcing developers to upgrade sidewalks. It leads to a patchwork of sidewalks completely useless to anyone walking. Just collect some money and do proper longer sidewalk upgrades
In fact the only time Campbell or Clark faced significant competition on the right (which I would define as >5%) was in 1996, when they lost to the NDP despite winning the popular vote.
It’s the NDP which has consistently had to face significant competition on its side, from the Green Party.
I agree, that’s more developer/GC inexperience. The fact that they didn’t think to touch base with bc hydro on what seems to be a decent sized development is interesting as it should be on the risk matrix/checklist, hopefully they did the usual geotech, arch and environmental studies before going ahead.
Counterpoint. By on-boarding the cuckoos they made a number of voters either sit out or become extremely reluctant NDP voters. Clarke and Campbell were able to win despite having fringey parties to the right. Anyhow, will be interesting to watch it evolve.
If there was a controlling mind coordinating matters with a chance of personal loss this would not happen. No homeowner with their faculties would manage their lands like this. This is a system design and incentive flaw that should be rectified.
Ridiculous that they didn’t think ahead and reorder the sequence of construction in this case.
That said the reality is almost all of our underground infrastructure will need to be replaced at some point. At 1 month apart it’s unfortunate but most every other part of the city will have the same thing happen and there’s nothing we can do about it
But the only reason they almost won is because they on-boarded the cuckoos and presented a unified right. If we’re splitting into two again I’m not sure if that’s good for election prospects
Poor Xeniya. Being a developer must be so freaking annoying. That being said I’m not sure that it’s better in other places (like France). And when I was in portugal the streets were too narrow for cars so the poor workers had to roll the concrete in from pretty far away – the problem there not being too much bureaucracy but a pretty tricky natural environment that majorly slows down development (in some instances).
Also I have the same shirt that Xeniya is wearing in the video. It’s actually one of my many free shirts that I got – in this case from her I believe on buy nothing.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-second-mla-leaves-bc-conservatives-says-he-will-form-new-caucus/
After the election I ventured the prediction that the BC Conservatives would shed some cuckoos and move to become a more appealing centre-right party by the next election. Looks like the process is already in play.
City of Victoria names new poets laureate
https://www.timescolonist.com/entertainment/city-of-victoria-names-new-poets-laureate-10343866
Fabulous news. Other than I am a bit
miffed that I wasn’t chosen. Maybe my “ode to a centennial square sequoia” was not well received
Here’s a memorable Tesla innovation moment from a couple of years ago. Elon is committed to rigorous product testing.
https://abc7news.com/tesla-sf-bay-bridge-crash-8-car-self-driving-video/12686428/
Looked it up- 70% of Tesla owners buy another Tesla. Sounds like a high rate of satisfied customers, but 30% are evidently not happy with the product.
The metric to determine Tesla’s future is the percentage of owners who buy another Tesla product. Anyone have that info?
Marko, “Fyi for anyone with a TD variable mortgage, TD is offering really good conversion rates right now. 4.01% to a 5 year fixed uninsured.’
We’re considering this on the next BOC announcement or maybe sometime between that and perhaps the end of summer. We have a variable with scotia, currently I think 3.9%. when we go to lock in fixed, how do we go about getting the best rate possible? Is there a preset differential or maybe a predetermined fixed rate? how exactly does it work and how do you negotiate the next fixed rate?
I ask because I’ve never been confident that I’ve negotiated the best deal. My priority is the best $$ savings.
Local architect/developer finishing a missing middle project with an awesome example of government inefficiency > https://www.instagram.com/reel/DG6iXC5SWQJ/?igsh=cW11a2N2ZTZndjhh
You would think a decent % of households would have one indivdidual making 80k or less, no? There can’t be too many households, even high income ones where both are making north of 100k/each.
btw, if someone is looking for a used EV government is scrapping the PST exemption on used EVs -> https://globalnews.ca/news/11069571/bc-electric-vehicle-pst-exemption/
Marko, only lower income individuals or people with corps got full rebates.
Not sure why anyone would when Tesla last year had end of quarter pushes where you could pick up a Model Y for 45k after rebates.
They’ve sold 1.8 million cars the last two years. Nothing niche about that. My random guess is they have a disaster of a sales year for 2025 and come in around 1.5 million and get their crap together (add 100 km of range to Model 3/Y, sharpen their prices, etc.) and come back with a 2.2 million sales year for 2026.
Their product is still by far the best in my opinion, but it is just so stale. A 10 year old Model S still has way better software/tech/apps/easy of interface use than a brand new competitor, for example a 2025 Porsche Taycan. Problem is they released the Model S in 2012 and the 2025 Model S still looks the same. If I was in the market for a car I would probably go with a competitor like an Etron GT. Audi is selling them for 50k+ off MSRP right now and you get something different and newer versus a 13 year old Tesla design.
New Model Y is a rather disappointing upgrade. Cooled seats and power folding rear seats really only notable upgrades. Not many owners are going to upgrade for that especially when range remained the same.
Q1 will be a disaster. Tesla has a large margin so they will drop prices mid-year and make tangible upgrades or at least announce tangible upgrades to the fleet by end of Q4.
I’m not in sales Bobby:) I live in Sooke and we do drive a lot. I’m retired. I quite like driving around to various places to visit beaches and I go into Victoria twice a week to play old man soccer.
I’ll scoot up to the Dog House in Duncan just to get their chicken curry! It must be extra good…… because I am a vegetarian!
Plus we have a grandson who we take to beaches and parks etc.
And I drive to locations to paint outdoors.
We love Sooke. Never regretted leaving Victoria…which is also beautiful.
Their numbers appear to be shrinking, since TSLA is down over 40% in less than 3 months.
You are probably correct, but the equity holders who have bid it up to nearly 1 Trillion market cap beg to disagree.
We purchased a 2023 Hyundai Kona ultimate EV last year and it has been wonderful, it only had about 14 K on it and we paid about 37K all in, although i would probably not have paid 54K for new after the federal rebate. I rarely drive it as our son takes it to his hockey academy in the west shore every day it’s just a great car, it drives like a small car, but my son has managed five passengers and three hockey bags and sticks.
Derek, are you in sales? It would appear that you’re driving about 20, 000 to 25,000 km a year?
I drive a Chevy Bolt and as I’ve said before…. I love it.
I save an averages of at least 210 liters of gasoline every month. Over the past 5 years I have had zero maintenance.
Most people who drive electric cars say that they would never buy a gas car again. I feel the same way.
If anyone thinks electric cars are going away, they are delusional.
Most people who gripe about electric cars have never owned one and when you ask them questions they have no clue what the answer is.
The difference is astonishing. The range is between 325kl in the winter to 435kl in the spring and summer and fall.
(PS: I would never buy a Tesla now as I can’t stand Elon Musk.)
If you do drive a gas car………… I’d like to thank you for paying the road taxes 🙂
Tesla was always going to end up being a niche small automaker. People liked confusing its stock price with the actual size and capacity of the company. The GMs, Toyotas, Fords, Daimlers and etc.. were always going to surpass it. Just like eco-fashion folks convinced themselves to buy Diesel BMWs and Volkswagens 15 years ago; the same folks bought Tesla’s not because of an environmental conscience, it was because of marketing. It just happened to find the same douches that buy Pategonia. It just took a guy named Elon to innovate the market make buying EVs trendy (the irony is awesome that so many previous Elon accolytes now find themselves in search of someone new to tell them what to desire). In the end, Telsas will never be accused of running like a Honda.
I can understand Marko getting an EV due to his work but for the rest of Victoria folks that drive 10k a year, nothing beats driving a newer modern turbo v6 ICE vehicle IMO.
Yes, sales prove this.
Tesla losing market share (even before all of this drama) shows that buyers are finding comparable features/value elsewhere. If Tesla was miles ahead no one would be buying anything else. They make very good EVs, but many other companies do too nowadays.
If we had high energy density batteries, I’d agree. As of today, if their charging network went away it would be a major blow to EV adoption.
Are they? I’m waiting for someone to come out with something objectively better than Tesla at the same price point (based on my criteria).
Overall EV sales in Canada tanked in January based on the info I am reading. Which makes sense, no rebates = demand drops.
The new Tesla is a rather very small improvement over the old one. The model itself won’t bring the sale back, they need to cut prices big time to offset no rebates.
Tesla is no longer important to the EV transition. Tons of other EVs are comparable. Look at recent EV sales. Total EV sales are up while Tesla sales are down. Tesla buyers just went to other brands. Few in China care about Elons politics, but Tesla is rapidly losing importance there simply because the competition started making good quality EVs at lower prices. Sales were near stagnant for the past year and down hugely in 2025. Maybe the new model Y can bring their sales back to stagnant but this is in the face of a market growing in the strong double digits. If Tesla went under it would be a blip on the EV transition. 10 years ago it would have been a major setback.
This isn’t an Eastern European phenomenon. Have you ever been to Mississippi?
You are engaging in black and white thinking that, imo, is possibly related to your cultural background. My Eastern European relatives tend to engage in the same pattern. You are presenting this as a false binary choice: either people support Tesla (and Musk) as they did before, or they no longer care about EVs. In reality, many can still support the EV transition while choosing not to support Telsa/Musk.
Also, you save money on gas and maintenance with EVs, for sure; however, EVs have 42% more powertrain problems than gas and hybrid vehicles (down from 79% last year), and plug-in hybrids are even worse, according to Consumer Reports.
Fyi for anyone with a TD variable mortgage, TD is offering really good conversion rates right now. 4.01% to a 5 year fixed uninsured. I am going to stick it out with the variable for the rest of the year but getting to be fairly reasonable.
The EV9 has the cargo capacity and is affordable, but I don’t care for the look of it. It’s got a boxy minivan vibe that I really detest.
The Rivian R1S is a sweet EV with tons of cargo capacity and even the ground clearance to take it on sketchy logging roads for hiking, but the price tag is nuts.
I also recently read on the Rivian Reddit page of guy who backed into a pillar in a parking lot and the car detected that an “accident” had occurred and rendered the vehicle inoperable. He couldn’t even bypass it with a hard reset. I mean, imagine if you bumped into a tree while out in the boonies and you had to call a tow truck because the car is bricked. Some “adventure” vehicle!
I guess EVs still have a some bugs to work out, and stories like that do give me pause.
Because nobody else is manufacturing EVs.
So we cared about the environment and EV transition before Elon went into politics, but now don’t?
Still unclear to me why you believe this is a problem.
A few years ago, Elon was a weird guy that spent his time making good electric cars and exciting rockets. People that cared about the climate and cool engineering bought his cars and governments subsidized lower carbon vehicles of which Tesla made the most popular models.
Now Elon’s time is focussed on a flavour of politics many people don’t agree with. Partially as a result Teslas vehicle sales are doing very poorly, and government incentives are being removed.
This all seems totally logical and rational to me
Things are different now because bad government policy, imo, made Elon even richer using Cnd tax dollars and the only reason Trump holds the cards with the tarrifs is government mismanagement which has left us volunerable to his non-sense.
As Leo says, who cares. Things are different now. The argument you are making is illogical. The tariff war creates a different decision framework. The financial and political landscapes have changed fundamentally. Relating the “ethics” of past purchases judged on today’s knowledge and conditions that were not existent or known at the time of purchase is ludicrous and misleading at best.
I drove one in Europe and it doesn’t drive well either.
Fact is EV rebates around the world directly attributed to Tesla’s growth and hence Elon’s wealth so he could spend $284 million financing Trumps campaign.
I took advantage of the rebates on all three Tesla purchases, but idiotic policy imo. I would have bought two out of the three without the rebates.
Who cares? Like Totoro said there was no issue with buying Teslas at that time. Even now I’m not judging anyone for buying a Tesla, but it’s pretty obvious from worldwide sales numbers that many are choosing not to anymore.
The point of those incentives was to increase EV adoption, and that’s what they did. Is that a good use of money? You could argue no, but the fact that many people used it to buy Teslas is completely irrelevant.
Yep. Maybe once a year we do a road trip so I’ll put some extra stuff in a box. Minor inconvenience
I considered the EV9 but:
Overall I think EV9 and now Ioniq 9 are great options too though. I’d love the Buzz if it wasn’t so overpriced.
At one point Quebec was offering up to 14k in incentives on Teslas. I think in BC we hit a high of 9k in total EV rebates. How would this not increase Tesla’s sales in Canada and DIRECTLY improve their sales/profits?
I had a Mazda3 in Croatia for a year and then the Croatian government offered 10k euro EV rebate. Sold the Mazda3 for 22k Euros and bought a 40k Model Y – 10k rebate = 30k Euros. I wouldn’t have done the transaction without the 10k rebate from the government; therefore, Tesla wouldn’t have had the extra sale.
Weird spin given that the rebate went to the individual taxpayer. Attributing it as a direct payment to Tesla is misleading and factually incorrect. And there was no issue before with buying Tesla’s imo. I was going to buy one.
Also, again, things have changed. No way I would buy one now even with the old incentive program.
What are you comparing to? Parameters? And what’s affordable?
I really want an EV, but the cargo capacity of most offerings still isn’t there.
Leo, I saw that you had to add a hitch cargo carrier to your ID.4 for longer family trips.
With the exception of the Kia EV9, there really aren’t (m)any affordable EVs with lots of space.
How do you know he has a yacht in Croatia?
It’s too bad we can’t harness and redirect Marko’s talents for the good of society. He really ought to be teaching financial literacy to high school students (and adults).
(Ironically, his financial shrewdness means that he would never decide to be a teacher, LOL.)
Has a yacht in Croatia but wears old clothes to work. I love it.
Thanks – good to know!
2009 built with a 2 bed suite, sounds like a decent buy at 1.1.
I called ~100k under priced by looking at the photos so I guess it looked a little crappier in person but pretty accurate.
No deals to be had with those sales . I’m seeing a lot of sold signs it seems but I guess that comes with more listings , a good time to be a realtor
Ambassador 85k over ask.
The system to register an airbnb is broken….sigh, this is going to be another few hours on the phone with a fellow civil servant. It asked me to upload a supporting document for proof of principal residence and when I upload the document it won’t let me proceed even thought document is uploaded.
This is after having to re-install the BC ID card app on my phone which required scanning back of my driver’s licence and making a video of myself pointing my finger at my nose for civil servant to approve.
“This step is unfinished.
Return to this step to finish it
Supporting Documents
BC Driver’s Licence
MarkosDriverLicence.pdf”
I quickly counted about 75 used teslas on marketplace in Victoria right now.
Fyi 931 Selkirk Ave people brought up a few times as a good deal went for $1,111,000 in court (111k over list price).
How long will that last with the tariff war? I am seeing quite recent China Teslas on the forums -> https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1fev6vr/m3p_made_in_china_canada_great_build_quality/
I guess they can always ship them from Berlin factory with the 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and 25% on US.
Not anymore.
and that is why Tesla is having to slash inventory prices by 12k right now – simple economics. How many 100s of millions were given to Tesla by Cnd tax payers over the last 10 years via rebates.
Fyi, Teslas sold in Canada assembled in China.
There are no more EV rebates for Tesla now. Federal rebate is done, and provincial rebate price cap moved to under $50,000 so no Tesla qualifies
If iPhones were assembled in the U.S. they would probably be $500 more expensive.
Looks like another rate cut coming next week -> https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-job-market-flatlines-in-february-solidifying-expectations-of-another-boc-cut-142917215.html
We could also ban Apple – they just made huge investment into the US.
I personally think EV rebates from the government where just simply idiotic – I’ve been saying this for over 10 years online and I got chewed out many times on the various Tesla forums. You remove the EV rebates you hurt Tesla’s bottom line. This morning they’ve slashed prices on all their Victoria inventory – upwards of 12k off on Model Ys and I see someone already bought a Blue Model Y long range that was 12k off 🙂
We literally put 100s of millions of dollars as Canadians into Elon’s pocket through EV rebates.
As long as it isn’t inconvenient to them and they get to keep their F150 and fly to Las Vegas 🙂
Will just take three years to approve permits to make such happen.
Fundamentally I agree with you. I don’t want Canada to become the 51st state and Croatia to become the 52nd state or part of Greater Russia – we aren’t far from Ukraine. However, I don’t think people are willing to do enough. In Croatia in my parents village we have Russians vacationing every summer since the war started in their luxury villas paying zero property tax (there is no property tax in Croatia) including a Russian that is on the CND and UK sancations list, but somehow not on the EU list. It is the same crap in every war. The politicians, elite, and criminals thrive and the average person dies on the front lines so the elite can continue to enjoy their luxurious lifestyle. Putin is not sending his buddies kids to the front lines and I see Trumps grandkids are living a tough life, driving a Cybertruck around at 17 years old -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxzTEIkSPKA
and the average person supports this in Russia and the US.
Not to mention you have 51st state and pro Trump supporters in Victoria – they just aren’t on Reddit.
Banning the sale of Teslas would hit Elon the hardest. That wouldn’t go over well with his boy toy.
Canadians can do what they can to support the Canadian economy as it is going to be hit hard by tariffs and they should do that now. Buy local, travel local. Reverse tariffs will have some impact, hopefully Alberta gets on board, but we are a smaller economy.
We probably need to be strategic about what hits Trump approval ratings because this is one of the rare times where the leader of a democratic country is making decisions unchecked and he is responsive to approval ratings like a reality tv star. A coordinated resistance effort that hits his image may be somewhat effective, along with diversifying our trading and strategic partners. Something that Europe can join in on. I mean he is threatening to take Greenland and saying Putin was a genius for invading Ukraine… cause international laws mean nothing and the threat Russia is to Europe is not real.
Sold my Tesla S a few weeks before the 8 year unlimited km battery warranty expired at 272,000 km @ 90% of original range.
Problem is if the battery dies the car is worthless as economical doesn’t make sense to replace battery.
Personally I would never keep an EV out of warranty. As soon as my Model Y hits 190,000 km and I am putting it on autotrader.
My strata still can’t figure out how to bill accordingly. For four years I charged for completely free and for the last two years I’ve been charging at 1/13th the cost. 13 people had a level 2 installed in their parking spot by the developer but apparently it is only on one meter and I am the only one of two people with an EV and the other one doesn’t really drive but the strata splits the bill 13 ways evenly.
Take a look at Leo’s most popular brokerage list again…..client will not give me a listing because I drive the cheapest possible car to operate, but the majority of the time will list with a company that is based outside of Canada 🙂
Makes sense.
100% agreed Trump is crazy. The interaction with Zelensky and so many other things have been difficult to watch. That being said to inflict substantially pain on the US I think fundamentally things have to change and I can’t see that happening due to human nature. Like stop buying F150s from Ford (best selling vehicle in Canada and built in the US) and have Honda ship us some Honda Fits they no longer sell in Canada due to poor demand. Will that happen, no it won’t.
Nearly 1 in 3 new cars sold in Victoria in 2024 were EVs.
I did the math on fuel costs for ours, with discounted overnight rates, it’s more than 10x cheaper to drive the EV than an equivalent gas car.
Meanwhile our 12 year old Leaf is still doing fine, now relegated to second car duty. Has about 80% of the original battery capacity which is still fine for city use (all it was ever designed for anyway). Even first gen batteries lasting quite a long time
The same client you’ll get a preference from for being a Canadian business is the one you may lose by showing up in your new discount Tesla. How much is a commission on a 1.6 million dollar home? Things have changed.
But really, it is not about the overall economic equation if you can afford the alternative or can go without. It’s almost as if you don’t believe there are people out there willing to forgo a Vegas trip or a US carrot. I can assure you there are.
As far as I’m concerned we should all be hoisting signs up about “The Big Lie” and “This is Not Normal” and “Resist”. You know why, because what Trump is doing is not okay for so many reasons. Not okay for Canada. Not okay in general. I’ve given up on fact checking and I’m more concerned about the parallels with historical leaders who created a lot of hardship, to put it mildly.
Pretty much, we do explore the island and make trips to Whistler/Interior in the summer time but mostly city on the whole.
100% agreed and that is why I think there is more to the stories of 20-30% less Candians visiting US (weak CND dollar so expensive to go to US) or Tesla sales tanking in Canada (stale line-up of cars, EV rebates disappeared, and Tesla increased prices).
You are the 100% perfect use case for an EV that’s for sure. 40 K of I assume mostly city/suburban driving.
I am assuming market incentives would work for the significant portion of people that are still perfectly willing to visit the US. Raise prices – less people would fly. Lower prices – more people will fly
So are you saying if they discount enough Cnds will ignore the buy Canada/stay in Canada movement?
five flights from Vancouver to Vegas tomorrow just like it has been for the last year. Please alert me when this drops down to four flights per day.
It’ll be interesting to track for sure. Not just the number of flights but how much they have to discount (or not).
https://globalnews.ca/news/11069567/us-travel-down-trump-tariff/
I drive 40,000 km/year….when you factor is no gas and no service, what car is cheaper to operate other than a Model 3? (and unlike other real estate agents I install my owns signs so I need a hatch).
By the time the battery warranty expires at 192,000 km and I dump that car I will have saved over 30k in gas. 45k purchase price – 30k gas saving = 15k – what car can I buy for 15k? That is not even factoring is no servicing costs.
sacrifices need to be made in wartime……
But no one should have to buy a suboptimal luxury EV. That level of sacrifice is just too high.
As noted we need a list sorted by top agent based on # of transactions, that works at a Victoria based brokerage 🙂
It’s sorted by number of listings they had out of the last 500. You’re lucky I extended the list to to the top 13 instead of stopping at 10! Nice story about Fair, I didn’t realize Bob passed away.
I’ve haven’t been to the US in 7 or 8 years. I have a newer Samsung Galaxy and a Tesla for business reasons (keep in mind with Tesla there is no servicing so not supporting Elon any further – also don’t pay for FSD or premium connectivity in my Model Y and its only a short range RWD – their lowest margin model). Other than that I really don’t buy anything, if you watch my YouTube videos I am wearing the same H&M shirts from 10+ years ago and the Aldo slips ons I wear to showings are 10 years old (but in good shape). I’ve haven’t owned a watch or an accessory in over 20 years.
In my opinion I am not dissing buy Canada, I am merely giving my opinion on human nature. I’ll go back to my example – five flights from Vancouver to Vegas tomorrow just like it has been for the last year. Please alert me when this drops down to four flights per day.
and at the end of the day I am not going to lie to people and say I wouldn’t buy another Tesla if the new Model Y dropped to $49,900 because I would. Now, if the Model Y stays at 85k and they start clearing out new Audi Eton GTs at 85k of course I am sticking it to Elon and buying the Audi.
If people stop buying Apple, stop using FaceBook, etc., I’ll sign onto not buying another Tesla ever again.
Thanks for putting Fair Realty last on the list Leo 🙂 If you organized this list by the highest number of MLS sales in 2024 by the top agent at each brokerage Fair Realty would be at the top 🙂 We are only last by virtue of being very small (I had 89 of Fair Realty 155 MLS transactions for 2024).
Fair Realty was started by a Bob Wilson (no longer with us unfortunately) in Victoria in 2002 as “One Flat Fee” and re-branded in 2007 to “Fair Realty.” I started my real estate career in 2010 and was asked to leave my first brokerage after only a couple of weeks. At the interview I asked if there were any policies pertaining to real estate commissions and I was told “no.” When I launched my wordpress site I built a few weeks later offering services such as cash back to buyers, lower commission listing rates, etc., I found out “no” didn’t really mean no 🙂
At that point every single brokerage I phoned was not willing to take me on until I got in touch with Bob (oddly enough through a respiratory therapist I was working with who also became a licensed real estate agent and had joined Fair Realty) and Bob said as long as you pay me $150 per month and $250 per transaction I could care less what business models you offer as long as it is legal and ethical you can sell houses for $251 but I want my $250 per deal.
Bob passed away and the brokerage is now owned by John, a nice guy that lives in Nelson. Once I started using Docusign around late 2012 I lobbied to close our physical Fair Realty office which use to be on Fort Street as I thought it was a waste of money for the brokerage (buyers want me to show them houses, sellers want me to come see their places) and by 2018 we closed the office. The entire conveyancing team is scattered throughout BC and works from home and they do a great job.
I’ve been at Fair Realty for 15 years now and even before pyscho Trump 2.0 got into office I just felt better about my fees going to Bob or John so they could upgrade their Toyota Camery versus some CEO in the US upgrading his Gulfstream. Also, with lower fees I am able to do things like offer mere postings and cash back.
That’s my story for today 🙂
1) Gotta market that if you want to capitalize. Most folks would have no idea.
2) Stop dissing buy Canada in public forums, that wouldn’t help with getting any of the “buy Canada” business
Real estate brokerages and their head office location sorted by popularity (based on the list brokerage of the last 500 listings)
REMAX: USA
Royal Le Page: Canada (Toronto)
Coldwell Banker: USA
Exp Realty: USA
Engel & Völkers: Germany
Newport Realty: Canada (Victoria)
Pemberton Holmes: Canada (Victoria)
The Agency: USA
Macdonald Realty: Canada (Vancouver)
Rennie & Associates: Canada (Vancouver)
Sutton Group: Canada (Vancouver)
Sotheby’s International: UK
Fair Realty: Canada (Victoria)
The housing market is not nearly as fast moving, but there’s a wild stat that if you invested in the S&P500 over 20 years and missed just the top 10 trading days you would lose more than half your returns
So a two year process in total by the time the property sells and completes. Not ideal either.
I don’t mind the 3 months notice to tenants – it is what it is, but if you are going to force people to use a horribly designed online notice generator why not have the option where the notice from the generator can be emailed directly to the tenant? That way everyone has an electronic record. It’s like people coming up with these regulations/ideas have absolutely zero common sense.
I don’t prescribe to Elon’s ethical and family values, but when I bought my Model Y it was less than 2 minutes on their website to purchase. They had me upload a few things to their system which was simple. They automatically took 8k in BC + Federal rebates off purchase price. I showed up at Tesla Langford at 11am and was on the road within 20 minutes including ICBC insurance and plates on the car. Total process to purchase a car less than 25 minutes versus multiple hours negotiating + delivery at traditional dealerships.
Softened from insanity thought. There is still absolutely no need to rent to an undesirable tenant. Just recently I had clients purchase a brand new SFH on the Westshore with a 500 sq.ft. suite above the garage. I told them $1,600 and they ended up renting it to a nurse for $1,700/month. The people across the street from them with an identical house/suite got $1,850 but they allowed two dogs.
I also had clients buy a one bed in Vic West from BOSA without parking. I told them $2,000 and they ended up renting for $2,200 to an excellent tenant which I thought was really high but the feedback from the tenant was still cheaper than what BOSA is asking in the rental tower even with the one month free promotion > https://rentals.ca/victoria/dockside-green#gallery-783388.112324711:photos
We’ve been lobbying but with limited success. We have been successful on a few fronts thought
i/ Notice to tenants was changed to four months, but then weeks later it was lobbied down to three months. It wasn’t possible for buyers to secure financing with a 4 to 5 month completion on tenanted properties.
ii/ We had the birthdate of the buyers removed as part of required information in the online notice generator. The first landlord client I was helping with the online generator we got to this portion at the end and didn’t have the buyer’s birthdate. Buyer’s agent wasn’t answering her phone and the notice couldn’t be saved after some 30+ minutes of working on it so we had to restart a few days later when we got the buyer’s birthdate.
iii/ We had the contract of purchase and sale removed as a mandatory document that has to be provided to the tenant with the notice.
A few other very small wins.
Can you move back in to your oak bay property and make that your primary residence for a year? If so I believe you only have to give them 4 months notice so agreement to purchase no longer necessary. And then you’d have to live in it for a year then sell it. of course you’d still have to use the online form generator. I’m zero percent surprised that the form is a disaster.
Marko for us we have in our tenancy agreement that the tenant agrees to accept notice via email. So maybe that’s why they don’t have your common sense idea to send it directly via email. And maybe the government doesn’t want to be the entity giving / effecting notice. I mean … what if gov messed that up … then lawsuits.
To pay over $1 million for a property and let a stranger live in it for $3000-4000 a month is not a viable business plan. Especially if prices stagnate or go down. Prices can spike given unforeseen events, but you’re really just gambling. Supposedly immigration is slowing, creating a headwind for real estate.
Yep being a landlord really is not worth it . I can’t blame Frank for wanting out .
I am a landlord have pivoted away from traditional rentals for sometime now.
Vicre, as a prior property manager and landlord I can assure you the current rental availability issue pales in comparison to the landlord /!renter relationship. I’ll assume you are not a landlord as you would know LLs are getting screwed at every angle in the past decade.
I would check every applicant to the nth degree. Don’t pay your water, insufficient reference and no thanks.
LMAO, are you sure you are a landlord?? The rental market has softened significantly…….
Marko- Why doesn’t the real estate board petition the government to change this ludicrous bureaucracy. Soon renters won’t have anywhere to live. I know one thing, I will not be providing this tenant a letter of reference. They haven’t been paying the water bill. Good luck finding another place to live.
Wow, great interview by Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly with CNN.
On YT for 5 hours, already has 2 million views, 56K comments, and 100% of the worldwide comments I’ve seen are pro-Canadian.
She does Canada proud!
https://youtu.be/z3rIlAITjXk?si=96F2TwcAyHLUDo3u
every new listing
Had no idea your head office was Canadian vs. others. Up to you to market it that way. People will buy Canadian right now. I am. I’m okay to pay more for this or go without if it is not available or too costly.
Marko, “every new listing we went to the head office for the company listing the property is in the US..” Maybe time for Fair Realty to start to position itself (advertising) as a local Canadian agency and educate the public on the difference. There is a movement out there. Whether we think it’s transient or not, the Facebook site, “buy Canadian” is now at 1.2 Million people. Post your service on there. If I was buying or selling atm I would consider an all Canadian service over a transnational agency.
We are all over the “buy Canadian”, provided it doesn’t cost me money or unreasonable perceived value and that’s not going away for me. Thanks for bringing this to my attention – I’ll keep it in mind for any future transactions.
Other possibility is that Elon or Trump soon loses interest in DOGE and Elon quits or is fired. Resulting in the sudden end of DOGE. I think there’s a good chance of this happening within a month.
The pudgy trillionaire is a deranged egomaniac.
However if we continue growing government and growing regulations we will get to the point where Canadians accept or actually want the Canadian equivalent of DOGE.
We don’t need a chainsaw to the Canadian or BC government at this point. Just a light pruning and reprioritizing….
Not only that, notice can’t be given until the agreement to purchase is UNCONDITIONAL.
Then you have to struggle through the online notice generator system (I haven’t had a landlord client make it through it without my assistance yet). Hopefully your agent knows all the info that is required as not all of it (pertaining to the buyers) will be on the agreement to purchase. Once you’ve struggled through the ONLINE notice generator you then need to print and delivery the notice to the tenant.
Once again, speaking of government efficiency, where is the common sense in all of this? If you as the landlord are being forced to enter in notice in an online government generator why not have a section with tenant’s email/cell where the notice is delivered via email/text and confirmation sent via email to landlord.
Also, it isn’t really 3 months as the 3 months starts on the next pay period so really it is somewhere between 3 and 4 months depending on when notice is given.
I could add 10 other things here but I’ll stick to one more. The tenant can give you 10 days notice in return (and you still owe them one months’ compensation) and then if the buyer doesn’t want to move up the completion/possession dates you’ll be stuck with a vacant property for months.
Good luck 🙂 People don’t want to be landlords anymore…wonder why.
Maybe Marko can clarify this-I was just talking to my agent concerning selling my Oak Bay property this year. It is currently tenanted, and I’m considering giving them notice. According to him, I have to give them 3 months notice only when I have an agreement to purchase. This would necessitate a 90 day possession date. I find this ludicrous. Please elaborate.
When I say concept I am literally referring to “Department of Government Efficiency.” As I said not a fan of Trump, not a fan of Elon.
Depsite me posting a concrete example of an entire department in the BC Government doing absolutely nothing of use, no one ever counters my argument that we have an entire department doing absolutely nothing.
It has been 8 years since Leo posted this -> https://househuntvictoria.ca/2017/02/23/the-owner-builder-exam/#:~:text=This%20100%20question%20exam%20requires,a%20more%20level%20playing%20field.
and for 8 years the department has continued to operate doing nothing but impeding housing from being built and increasing costs of such, in a housing crisis.
Yea, no problems with government efficency whatsoever.
Thing with the peak is it was extremely short lived that % wise very few people actually got burnt.
The median for Feb 2025 was $1,140,000
The median for Sept 2021 was $1,080,000 and didn’t cross $1,140,000 until October 2021.
The median for Jul 2022 was already down to $1,090,000
We had essentially two crazy months Feb 2022 and March 2022 at $1,280,000 and $1,310,000. The rest isn’t far off today’s prices.
The outliers are fun to bring up and in this YouTube video I bring up examples of houses in Rockland and James Bay that dropped 25% and 26% on re-sale but those are outliers, not the norm -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SasiD0z5e0
The concept of DOGE was to allow an egomaniac who donated $200+ million to the Orange One’s campaign to go on a rampage.
Don’t pretend that the Orange One is actually interested in efficiency – the gyrations of the last few weeks are proof of that. Short of Soviet style central planning, his nonsense about trade and tariffs is about the biggest interference in market efficiency you can get. Don’t have to believe me, believe the stock market.
I was driving around to showings and every new listing we went to the head office for the company listing the property is in the US. Haven’t had an uptick in calls to list properties despite Fair Realty being local and 100% of commissions staying within BC. Thought that was kind of interesting 🙂
Sure someone was predicting that. Of course people are always predicting all sorts of things, and most of the time they are wrong.
But I can tell you what I was saying – that those who were buying at the 40 year interest rate floor were betting on rates staying that low. And they lost that bet.
I think there is a likely scenario that prices are flat for the next 5 years; however, as I pointed out we’ve had 9 out the last 37 years where the market jumped over 15% YOY and you never know what that >15% YOY increase will happen. Could be in 2, 5, or 7 years so in my opinion you are best to buy and hold for the long term.
Also, you won’t recognize that 15% YOY year until it is too late (most homes are going over asking price in multiple offers at that point and you risk overpaying in that particular market due to the chaos).
Depends on your expectations which are on average very high in North America in relation to the rest of the world.
I think what made Canada a great place to live is when my parents came to Canada 30 years, they were able to buy a SFH core home on a construction + housekeeping job. That is no longer possible (and never will be in our lifetime) and either you accept that, or you continue to complain about affordability.
Too early to tell what DOGE will accomplish. When I refer to DOGE I am referring to the concept of DOGE. I am firsthand deeply involved in something (owner-builder exam) that if that particular department at BC Housing was cancelled overnight literally ZERO negative consequences would occur in society; however, there would be a lot of positives so getting rid of the department would actually improve quality of life in society.
I am sure there are a ton of other departments at various levels of government if you just completely axed literally nothing would change for anyone, or things would actually improve.
Let me guess, you work for the government 🙂
I’m under the impression that political flip-flopping, not bureaucratic bloat, is the greatest threat to government efficiency. Especially in the US.
OMG. Time for Canada to get itself together and have a solid strategy that reaches out and unites Canadians on this tariff yo-yo.
I personally know business owners who have already been charged tariffs. I’ve also had a family member who has been laid-off as a result of the uncertainty. And I’m pretty insulated from the major industry effects.
It is time for a major PR campaign with some clear, concrete targets for Canadian consumers as well as a strategic plan for expanding export markets. Good job on inter provincial trade barriers. Right now is time for finish line performances that increase Canadian bargaining power and options. And while we are at it, how about some stable practical leadership at the top. It should be illegal to have this type of vacuum right now.
I’m in favour of government reform for efficiency. One thing about the Elon chainsaw approach is that it stops the efficiency exercise from becoming another long, drawn-out, inefficient government process. However, the downsides are significant and the collateral damage and push back is going to be something to behold.
Singapore is a good example of a better way – they have a smart nation initiative for digital efficiency and AI measures in government: https://www.smartnation.gov.sg/ They also promote in government based on merit and protect rule of law. Mr. Trump seems to have zero regard for the rule of law, fairness and the democratic process.
I agree with Leo though, the longer the delay on change the more entrenched people get in inefficient ways and the more reactionary those who observe this become.
Top 3% actually.
https://www.springfinancial.ca/blog/lifestyle/middle-class-income-in-canada-by-province
Right. Because DOGE is doing such a tremendous job.
Two uncomfortable truths:
I don’t like what’s happening down there, but every day we fail to do #2, we increase risk that pressure builds to the point where we get #1
Right…. And add a sprinkling of “probably”. “For a month” and “if the fentanyl stops”
Thanks, ChatGPT.
Tariffs are on. Tariffs are paused. Tariffs are on. Tariffs are paused.
45 days in. Only 1,340 to go.
Every day just mired in endless bureaucracy BS. Trying to register my airbnb which requires a BC Services Card app to do so and when I try to open the app on my phone I get “Unsecured Network. A secure interent connection is required. Please check your network or try another network.” Who designs this crap.
Have already tried installing/uninstalling, etc.
Not to mention I already went through the process of registering with AirBnb and providing all my details.
Not a fan of Trump/Elon as people, but we desperately need some DOGE 🙂
top 10% earner being able to afford a SFH in the core isn’t unreasonable. But is top 10% hhi in Canada actually 200k now?
Yes, a perfect example. Millennials are getting out-bid by other millennials. Maybe “Josh” and “ks112” got outbid by “Edgar Allan Bro”, and so Edgar got the south oak bay house.
The problem is there are too many millennials (highest population, bigger than boomers). And they love Victoria core SFH. And there aren’t enough core SFH in Victoria for them all. You can’t blame that on the boomers. The smart young millennials (like Edgar) realized that, and bought what they could afford without waiting for the apocalypse to make the homes cheaper.
The irony is that many of the older generation who say stop complaining and buy as soon as you can wouldn’t be able to afford to buy a home at todays prices when they were at home buying age.
I have stated before, when we moved to Victoria we bought a home a few blocks from the ocean in fairfield for well under 300K back in 2001, that same house with inflation would be be around 600K today, which would now only get you a smallish condo. Yes I am very greatful.
It requires a lot of mental gymnastics and torturing of the data to argue that young people today have it easier when it comes to housing. The reality is that for most young people, what they can afford are condos (and there are very few condos in Victoria that are ideal for families/raising children). In contrast, previous generations were able to buy single-family homes (SFHs) in the core on modest incomes. While it’s true that a young couple, like a police officer and a nurse, might qualify for a $1 million mortgage, such couples are not the norm for most young people and would likely fall into the top 10% of earners.
For the vast majority of young people today, buying an SFH will only be possible if they belong to that top 10% income bracket, or if they’re fortunate enough to receive significant financial help from their parents. This simply wasn’t the case for previous generations, where homeownership was more accessible to a broader range of income levels.
I’m a millennial on the very young side of the spectrum, and I was fortunate enough to buy an SFH in South Oak Bay without any help from my parents. However, this is far from the norm for people my age. I wouldn’t consider me or others who acknowledge these challenges on HHV to be complaining—rather, we’re recognizing a clear and significant disparity in housing affordability that is unlikely to get any better in Victoria.
Thanks for the tips, Sidekick and Thursty!
Call the OB arborist. Will likely come out and look at the tree with you.
Penultimate, pop into the yard and talk to Chris he’s actually very easy to get along with and will say yes most of the time
Heritage designation. Have fun bringing that up to code.
I agree that the stats are the stats, and it’s the only thing that matters . Too much reading into things that aren’t there
Does anyone know if Oak Bay will remove or at least maintain/prune a tree that’s in front of a SFH lot but technically on municipal property (so outside of the property lines)? If so, how do you go about getting it done? I know that City of Victoria does this for Garry Oaks that are outside of property lines but not sure about OB.
You’re talking about someone who sells 2-3 years after buying. Thats not who I’m talking about, I’m talking about people who bought at the peak and haven’t sold. People that sell after 2-3 years frequently lose money, in all kinds of markets – that’s nothing new.
No need because there isn’t….
LMAO got him there…. When I bought my principal residence I was in the mindset that even if it loses 25% value I am ok with it because I like the house, the lot and the neighborhood and can afford it. For those that went fomo, stretched to buy a house they didn’t really like then I can see that being a very different cope as prices come down.
Not needed. There are going to be”stories” on both sides of extreme price differences – higher and lower prices. Knowing that the average (benchmark) price is down 8% is good enough for me, and I’m not going to be surprised and change my mind when I hear one that was much higher or lower than that.
Real estate isn’t for everyone and I would agree that some folks are much better off renting .
You don’t? That’s the teranet loss. The real loss would include mortgage interest, PTT, realtor fees, lawyer fees and moving costs. On an asset that only allowed them to avoid rent for 3 years. On an asset they most likely had a mortgage on, so it would have exceeded their total liquid assets. You couldn’t say that they were expecting to lose, otherwise why would they have done it?
First you claim that every Canadian would have to be an absolute idiot to not buy the moment the bank tells them they can, then when people are losing money on real estate you claim it’s no big deal?
Lets see some examples of those without big renos being done?
Canada has close to the highest sized homes in the world (1,800 square feet average ). And Victoria has close to the lowest number of people per dwelling (2.1), vs 2.5 average for Canada. So there’s plenty of room. So if you’re a couple with a baby in a 500 square foot condo, it’s unlikely that you live in Canada to begin with, but if you do, consider moving to an average sized Canadian home of 1,800 square feet.
Meh, it’s not even that bad from an absolute price standpoint. Here is what a cop current makes in Victoria, a full fledged constable and a nurse you are at 200k HHI and can qualify for $1M mortgage assuming you don’t have other debt.
Police Constable Salary Scale
Rank Annual Monthly Hourly
Probationary Cst. (1st year) $85,392 $7,116 $40.91
4th Class Cst. (2nd year) $91,492 $7,624 $43.84
3rd Class Cst. (3rd year) $97,591 $8,133 $46.76
2nd Class Cst. (4th year) $109,790 $9,149 $52.60
1st Class Cst. (5th year) $121,989 $10,166 $58.45
Indexed wages (based upon 1st Class wages)
Rank Annual Monthly Hourly
10 year constable (Qualified) $128,088 $10,674 $61.37
15 year constable (Qualified) $134,188 $11,182 $64.29
20 year constable (Qualified) $140,287 $11,691 $67.22
So what if your homeownership is a 500 or 600 sq foot condo, you can still have a child just turn a closet into a bedroom for a crib.
After a great morning, time for my mobility routine than the first workout of the day. Beautiful day out there.
>>> You have to remember Patrick speaks from the entitled boomer generation and says the younger generation has never had it so good so suck it up.
Yah, I’d say they have it pretty good. It’s not just me saying this, it is also statcan census homeownership data.
Most millennials in Canada already own a home, so they have it pretty good too. Millennials are age 29-44. You can see their home ownership ranges from 52% (age 30-34) to 67% (age 40-44).
If you disagree, please tell me what range of homeownership other than 52-67% homeownership would be acceptable to you for young people in the 29-44 age group.
Older millennials (40-44) with 67% home ownership puts them on target to be the highest home owning cohort in Canada as they age, as home ownership rises with age. As you can see, boomers aren’t that much higher at 75%.
Note that the HHVers complaining on this forum are mostly looking for SFH in the core of Victoria, one of the highest priced housing markets in Canada. They can buy more modest homes, but want to go for the best. Fine, but so what’s the matter with telling them to “suck it up”? Because that means to deal themselves with a tough situation that they’ve created for themselves by looking in the most expensive market.
Statcan data on home ownership by age in Canada.
Clear to me if you look at my posts from spring 2022. All you had to do was look at what was happening in TO and Van as they front run our markets on big macro moves. Right now I would say the market is a lot more de-risked and in a somewhat stable place and would be suitable for someone looking to buy a principal residence to do so. When looking at cash flow break even while it’s not there yet it’s also not that far off.
Buyers at the peak were getting 2.5% 5-year term mortgages. After 3 years of a 5-year/ 25 term, 2.5% mortgage, they will have paid off 9% of the mortgage, so have about 8% equity from just that. That matches the 8% drop in prices from the peak, so they should sleep well as their house is worth 8% less, but they owe 9% less.
Moreover, after buying a house, most people aren’t planning to sell their house, so find other things to worry about that current house prices.
You have to remember Patrick speaks from the entitled boomer generation and says the younger generation has never had it so good so suck it up and just keep buying real estate as it almost never goes down and if it does don’t lose any sleep over it.
You don’t think anyone’s losing sleep over losing their down payment and having zero equity on the cusp of a recession? They must not be buying their beds at the Brick like I always do.
Saying “flat” but then adding “after inflation” is a big qualification. Inflation for the last 5 years was 18%. If it is the same for the next 5 years, prices could rise 18% and your statement would still consider that to be”flat”. I wouldn’t consider that flat, because the mortgage owing hasn’t grown with inflation, and equity has grown 18%.
You should expect to see extreme values, including people who have bought at the peak and sold at a big profit. The relevant point for me is that the benchmark is down 8%.
Patrick I think the sellers of 2685 Burdick may disagree after losing at least 800k from the peak.
Of course always keep in the back of your mind the lesson that any asset class that has outperformed over a period is bound to under perform over the next period, the longer the outperformance the greater the correction will be.
For example here is the Canadian bond etf XBB, it’s out performance after years of declining interest rates it has now been getting crushed.
As I have stated I believe house prices will be flat at best after inflation for at least the next 5 years as returns return to the median. This doesn’t mean I wouldn’t buy a house if I needed one I just wouldn’t expect huge gains and be over leveraged.
Another great trading morning on the markets and a great sunny day for a bike ride!
Prices are only down 8% from the 2022 peak (according to teranet). I wouldn’t expect many peak buyers are losing sleep over an 8% loss.
I’ve also understood that it typically takes 5 years to break-even on an initial buy (after legal, PPT, Realtor fee to sell, others). Buying and having to sell 2 years later is as likely as not to result in a loss – more so knowing at the time that you are buying into a long run-up like 2022.
Clear in hindsight but not sure anyone was predicting interest rates to rise as much as they did and as fast as they did.
Would you say it is clear right now that the market is turning as inventory is at a 10 year high?
I agree. But at the same time you can’t just be stupid about it. You can see all the 200k plus losses being realized now for those who bought at the peak where it was clear that the RE market was turning.
Great post. So the worst year in 37 years is down only 5.47%. Remarkable.
Rush4life, nicely summed up. Torono made a similar post/observation a few years ago I thought was one of the best posts ever on HHV. Not a good idea to bet against the Victoria Real Estate market.
Last 37 years
27 years – Up (9 of those years increases were over 15% increase YOY)
10 years – Down
The 10 down years
1995 – (5.47%)
2023 – (3.41%)
2019 – (3.34%)
2011 – (2.55%) – Inventory over 5,000 + slow sales and market barely budged.
2012 – (1.72%)
2024 – (1.43%)
1998 – (1.17%)
Rest under 1% drop.
In conclusion we have 9 years with 15%+ increases and the worst year in the last 37 is down 5.47%.
If you are looking for a principal residence I wouldn’t play the market – buy when you can afford it. Even more true for SFHs.
Just ate an Egyptian orange, won’t be buying any more. These tariffs are nonsense.
Garth, even if its your PR and you can afford it?
There are millions of examples of failed real estate investments. It is not fool proof.
I agree. Its a roof over your head, its forced savings, and rent isn’t exactly cheap these days. If we had of rented this house as apposed to buying it over 20 years ago, we would have paid over $750k just in rent!
Rush4 life, pretty much nailed it . It really does seem like the game is fixed and real estate isn’t allowed to fall .
Yes and look at Victoria on a map there’s water all around so not like we can build out. Rush I had the same realization as you (knowing less about how money works but seeing the logic of the situation) and bought as soon as we could. It was the right decision.
They also can’t take the soul…So we really win there.
Avoid debt, keep a roof over your head, Its also a good time to have a fair amount of liquid cash on hand (five years worth).
AI is coming, and its not our friend, we are already past the point of no return.
Yes, we are also looking in Esquimalt given its proximity to the core. And thanks for the offer to come with us – not necessary yet but if that changes I’ll let you know 😉
Problem is I have seen many storm clouds in the last 10 years and basically had no impact on the housing market here – i’ve seen Foreign Buyer Taxes, zoning changes, spec taxes and every government strategy you can name that was going to break the market that never came to pass. I’ve seen a pandemic that was sure to kill the market and then subsequently watch prices rise countless thousands a few short months later. I’ve seen rates jump from less than 2% to 6% and watched houses here come down what .. 5%? Maybe its different this time, maybe the tariffs will bring mass job losses and maybe the immigration pause will lessen demand to a point where the market falls but am I am willing to bet the future of home ownership on it? No. I’m Not.
Even if those things come to pass looks what happens historically, government doles out money like its candy (inflationary) and banks change the rules to cover their own interest. Government wants to add 2% to qualifying rates, banks just change the TDSR metrics to offset it. Pandemic comes and jobs are lost? Interest rates rise unbelievably? Banks pause payments, or increase amortizations way out past the rules to ensure people can still pay. Prices actually come down in condos in Ontario? Banks send out their own special appraisers to ensure valuations come in where they need to so people can still qualify for a mortgage.
Unless something catastrophic happens I can’t see much changing, government doesn’t have the stomach for it. Like it or not, Leos graph of affordability shows the future of SFHs IMO. The chance of SFH being 10-20% higher in the next 5 years seems all too possible to me unfortunately. For what its worth, I honestly hope i’m wrong – but like i said i’m not betting on it.
They want to be like us but they can’t cry or make bad art. So… we win 😀
what mainframe? like a computational iq of 1500? who cares. blah blah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp_K8prLfso
A single embedded microchip integrated into the mainframe with an iq level of 1500 or more.
Max can you clarify what’s a ghost chip? Maybe they’ll use certain humans to house these super ghost chips and the chips can work wirelessly to obtain and control data everywhere at all times. Maybe they’re already among us…
You ain’t seen nothing yet. The only reason any of us are still here is to keep the economy going just enough to finance and continue to construct and build out the final lap of the AI infrastructure. This infrastructure should be complete late 2027. By this time a single ghost chip amongst thousands of similar ghost chips, housed and energized within a single main frame, amongst tens of thousands of other main frames all over the planet and in orbit…Each and every ghost chip will have an iq level of 1500 or more.
By early 2028 I expect to see the employment numbers change moving forward.
Maybe Hampshire can be flipped to an SRO to help oak bay get closer to its target.
For a fixer upper déterminé the cost of the Reno (plus 10% bc who knows what might happen), then double that, then add to purchase price. If you can sell it finished for that new amount then it’s a good deal. Right?
Semi-detached and detached aren’t doing too bad in the GTA, it is the condos that are struggling.
Joe, I hear you , lots of stuff up in the air . I’m just thinking that the boc will go back to the old play book and drop rates and pump the market , but that’s just me . Should that happen then I think buyers might get caught flat footed .
On Hampshire , if u get a crew in you’re going to be between 750 and a mil to do a proper Reno. Nice looking house great local saw the pic never drove by but it looks to be apartments on the one side
1330 Hampshire- Classic Arts and Crafts structure. No mention of the mechanicals, ie. what updates have been done. Could be difficult to heat and wiring probably needs complete overhaul. Solid granite foundation!!! If the house is structurally sound it would take a lot of sweat equity to spruce up. Not crazy about B.C. fir hardwood trim, oak would be my preference. It would cost over $2 million to replace, probably more, and the materials and craftsmanship wouldn’t be close. Smallish yard. If you’ve got a lot af energy and appreciate quality, it’s a great deal if it’s sound. Didn’t see any cracks in the walls or ceilings in the listing. That would be a bad sign. If I were younger, I would tackle it. Stain glass windows were amazing.
“There is no greater misfortune than underestimating your enemy.”
-Lao Tzu
Why stretch yourself thin to buy something right now? The storm clouds are only just arriving. At least wait for them to take effect.
511 Macauley has a drop down ladder to access the attic. I doubt most people would consider this for much more than storage. The only way to make it suitable would to convert the bedroom and flex room with 6ft ceilings and take some of the garage and laundry room. It would be a fair bit of work for a suite that I can’t see renting for much considering the whole suite would have super low ceilings
The losers will be the ones that are up to their eyeballs in debt. Just like every other time we have had an economic shock…Including the GFC.
1330 Hampshire looks like a serious project. I think it might be a tad overpriced.
Factually true and yet doesn’t make it any less nerve wracking to do especially for those adverse to debt
Pop a heat pump in the attic at 511 Macauley and that’s the office. Not sure why there looks to be stairs going up from the kitchen then another set dropped down from the ceiling looking to go to the attic. Strange. I almost want to go see it. Open houses should be mandatory (that’s a joke but i wish this one had one).
See what a week or two brings, with listings coming on and a crisis may make some buyers gun shy. Really curious to see what 1330 Hampshire sells at.
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@rush would you consider esquimalt? 511 Macauley is super cute and looks like it might be suitable. We live in esquimalt and love it. Do you have kids? I’d offer to come look at it with you to see if it can be suited obviously (I’m pretty good at imagining spaces) but that would be weird. Hopefully you have an out-of-the-box thinking realtor. Historically I’ve had to buck several nay-sayers (including realtors) when making purchasing decisions (all of which ended up being good decisions). I’m a risk taker though and I don’t mind renovations 🙂
The dollar is holding in at 70 cents lotsa room for a 50 point cut
Vicre, or am I getting ahead of the curve and buyers budgets will get bigger as money flows cheaper , hmm.
Thanks everyone! A house near where we want seems to be the agreed upon thought – i think thats our best bet as well.
Our budget is based on what we are qualifying for (and can afford) – we can’t just ‘up the budget’ unfortunately but appreciate that buying at max budget has paid off historically in Victoria and much of this Province – at least on entry level homes.
I think Thursty is just randomly talking smack to pass time.
Thursty, “past performance may not be repeated”.
I also always told clients you need to be able to sleep at night, if an investment is affecting your health its not worth it.
Strawberry Vale shouldn’t be too bad, view royal would be worse. I don’t know if you looked at or put an offer on this one that sold last fall but from what I remember this probably is the closest to checking all your boxes with a suite in high Quadra.
https://housesigma.com/bc/saanich-real-estate/4212-keewatin-pl/home/aD6p781ekx03wRQr?id_listing=B5bO3xxbgpW3kWVP&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=
Rush for life, u can always up your budget by 500k and roll the dice on much lower interest rates , that’s something I would do
I would compromise on a lot of house features to cut the commute
Rush, as stated recently, buy in the neighbourhood that is most convenient that you can live with for both youself and family, you can always renovate the house.
I always told clients in financial planning that time is the most important commodity.
Agreed with your assessment – and yes, considering many things including those two areas and even Central Saanich. We may even consider westshore but would need to change our lives around to do so as my wife and I both work in the core and that drive is a killer.
Don’t forget brutal winter.
They’re neither. They’re a temper tantrum thrown by a petulant rapist felon idiot who has no understanding of the benefits of free trade, nor of how the North American auto industry currently functions. Today, having been informed by the automakers about the train wreck he’s created, he’s looking for an escape that allows him to retreat and then declare victory. In the fashion typical of lowlife politicians, it sounds like he wants to kick the can down the road again. He can be trusted on absolutely nothing, so good luck negotiating with him. To the idiots who support him, this is called four-dimensional chess. By that standard, a toddler pooping his diaper is eight dimensional chess.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-trudeau-trade-war-1.7475242
I see, that’s tough as most with suites are going to be starting in the 1.2 range (1 bed illegal suite) in the neighborhoods you are likely to be interested in. So extra 1200 bucks ish on the mortgage (200k) but after tax on the rental income is unlikely to yield more than 500 bucks of cashflow left, not sure if it’s worth the hassle to be honest. Have you considered strawberry vale or view royal?
Ontario is being hit hardest. Huge drop in international students + high unemployment + wildly uncharacteristic increase after covid in many small towns
There are 155 downtown condos for sale today which represents 35% of all condominiums for sale in the Victoria Core municipalities.
Median Sale Price for downtown condos during the last 30 days was $497,000. that bought a 2008 condo of some 632 Square Feet
Like this one
https://www.pembertonholmes.com/listing/Victoria-BC/214-770-Fisgard-St/2xpxs
Rents are around $3.25 per square foot with the Gross Rent Multiplier holding steady at around 20.
That would be the top of our range without a suite – my preference either way would be to put a suite in for many reasons including added stability if my wife and i ever got laid off (seems unlikely now but that could change quickly in this environment), future care for one of my parents, and just generally earning some extra money and paying off the mtg more quickly.
So i prefer a place that is suiteable or has a suite – unfortunately they are hot commodities.
Oh I see, do you need a suite?
Marko out of curiosity what percent of homes do you expect to fall through (not finalize) with accepted offers?
Nope, I’m a renter – Ambassador seemed like a good price but never know until you see it in person. If you were looking to add a suite i’d assume you would have to deal with Asbestos and whatever other issues come with a 1960s place. Still the pictures made it seem like a good deal and we like that area.
Significant drop in homes sales and prices in GTA from Jan to Feb along with 100% increase in court ordered sales from Jan 2024.
Not too surprising with more selection there will be more sales. Once people see the sun rise every morning the tariff shock will wear thin. There is going to be winners and losers with free trade seemingly dead , and I’m not sure if that’s a big deal imo.
Well the lower priced home under 1MM especially with suite will always be in demand and within reach of the first time home buyer or people moving from a condo and it would make sense that homes in the lower to mid priced market around 1.5MM are in reach for the sellers of the 1MM homes as they have built up equity the past 10 years. It would make sense that the higher end 1.8MM+ would be slower as these homes tend to be bigger and by the time many can afford them the children has left and who wants 3,000+ foot home for 2 people, as well once retirement hits you dont want to tie up more capital in a home especially with accelerated property tax increases continuing indefinately and sluggish to falling home prices (see link below).
Bought at 3.825MM less than 3 years ago and just sold for 3.125MM for over 800K loss inclduing fees
https://housesigma.com/bc/oak-bay-real-estate/2685-burdick-ave/home/nbq6y10qdWaYo9DA?id_listing=9w8o3m4reDz7GKjm
I still predict home values will increase by no more than inflation for the rest of the decade at best.
As I predicted recent stock market volatility has created a wonderful trading environment.
Do you already have a house? Ambassador looks under priced by around 100k
The more inventory there is for entry level single detached the more demand is drawn away from townhouses IMO. Core detached is always going to be in solid demand. But then again that’s been true for the past 2 years. The only reason lots of people failed to sell was because they were priced too high.
Yeah that would match the MLS HPI data that is slightly negative year over year, and the sales to assessment data that is essentially flat
I will say we’d be in a hell if a lot stronger position here if we were a nation of 100 million Canadians
Many people overreacted to the first Trump term and that has caused people to under react to the second.
I don’t see anything that would indicate that tariffs are a bluff or a negotiating tactic. Listen to what he is saying he wants to onshore all manufacturing, and I think the chance that the Ontario auto industry survives these 4 years is very slim.
I was looking last night in the back-end of my system and a lot of accepted offers in place on SFH core homes that are set to go unconditional in the next 10 days.
A hopeful outlook, but I think you’d be well-advised not to plan your financial life accordingly.
It’s at least possible that following great disruption, Canada will emerge stronger, with more diversified trade and a more robust domestic economy. But first we have to live through the disruption, which sure looks like something more than short-lived to me.
Over any really long run, all these things are a “blip”. But how your finances are organized during these “blips”, whether the “great financial crisis” or whatever, can affect the rest of your life.
WE have looked at a few homes lately around 1.2 and the open houses have been zoos. Looked at a place on Obed and it went 80K over asking apparently. Wanted to go check out a place on Ambassador last night but got told they already have an accepted offer. Feels busy for SFH for sure.
I had one of these core under 1.5M detached homes listed a few weeks ago. A ton of showings, multiple offers, sold over asking.
Seems to be plenty of demand for such product. I think sales actually might be bouyed up a bit this spring with more inventory as there will be more options for buyers in this market segment.
On the ground I am seeing downward price pressure on condos. My theory is the sales mix has changed in that investors aren’t buying studios and small one bedrooms and more condos are being sold to owner occupiers which tend to be bigger 2 bed 2 bath units. Therefore, you have a situation where the median is increasing despite downward price pressure. Any thoughts?