Chainsaws
Last week I gave a presentation about some factors I think will be important in the market this year. Other than migration (down) and affordability (improved), this was another slide I had in the deck.
For those who aren’t familiar, that’s Javier Milei – now president of Argentina – running on drastically cutting the size of government and regulatory burden. In one video Javier walks around and shows which ministries will be abolished (nearly all of them). Extreme perhaps, but there’s little doubt that Argentina needed extreme reform. With a failed economy and out of control inflation, it was obvious that they needed more than some tinkering around the edges. It’s too early to fully judge the results, but things are changing quickly and Javier has heralded the positive changes as proof he is on the right track.
Extreme reforms in a small country 10,000km from here is something to be followed with interest, but the same principles are being applied in America right now. In fact Javier Milei gifted Elon Musk a chainsaw and the DOGE initiative is enthusiastically copying Argentinian reforms. The difference is, this time they’re being applied not to an economy in ruin, but one that has been the envy of the G7. While we wail and gnash our teeth about stagnating Canadian productivity, US GDP/capita has left everyone in the dust.
For once, “It’s the economy, stupid“, doesn’t quite ring as true.
But I’m sure everyone’s already tired of discussing what’s going on down south, and anyway, what does it have to do with Victoria’s market? Sure the tariffs are on again this hour after being off again after being on again after everyone thought they were a bluff. But what does it matter? We have neither steel mills nor automotive factories nor mines, and the only forest products we sell are $7 bags of leaves. In fact the Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimated that Victoria is one of the least exposed cities to tariffs.
Sure we are likely to see an increase in our unemployment rate as the provincial hiring freeze bites and businesses become cautious. That will surely drag on the market somewhat. But in addition to being less directly exposed, we still have the lowest unemployment rate by a mile, so we are well positioned to take a hit.
I think the main impact of all this turmoil will be indirect, driving up uncertainty and hurting consumer confidence. Improved affordability is one thing, but buyers need confidence to commit to purchases that are some of the largest of their lives, and right now the news cycle is not reinforcing confidence.
For an example of consumer confidence, let’s go back to 2007. A typical house back then costs about $520,000, and you could get a mortgage for about 6%. Paying that mortgage took up a fairly serious 43% of the average household’s income, but that didn’t feel like a problem to many people. In fact nearly 1500 people thought that was an excellent deal and bought a house in Victoria that summer.
Fast forward 5 years to 2012. A house still cost about $520,000, but now you could get a mortgage for a mere 2.7%. Instead of paying nearly $2700/month like the 2007 buyer, you only had to pay $1900/month for the same house. Even better, incomes had been growing at a decent pace and were 10% higher, so buying the same house now took less than 30% of the average income. Also, because prices had been stable for so long, the risk of a price correction was dramatically lower.
Buyers in 2012 could get the same house for less risk, less money, and more affordably than 5 years ago, so surely they were swarming into the market, right? Nope.
Sales were down more than a third from the summer of 2007, and we cracked 5000 properties available for sale, just about double what we have today. In fact it took another 3 years for the market to revive and pick up steam for the next leg up.
Despite buying conditions that were clearly better in every way, people just weren’t biting. Unemployment was up a little from 2007, but at around 5% it was still very low. But whether it was a hangover from the shock of the great financial crisis or simply that 5 years of flat prices had killed the FOMO, people did not feel confident jumping in.
I suspect we’ll feel some similar impacts this year as the uncertainty of… gestures wildly all of this takes a bite.
Also the weekly market activity:
| February 2025 |
Feb
2025
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 136 | 272 | 401 | 470 | |
| New Listings | 308 | 605 | 868 | 1088 | |
| Active Listings | 2408 | 2487 | 2544 | 2364 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 44% | 45% | 46% | 43% | |
| Sales YoY Change | +24% | +17% | +18% | +2% | |
| New Lists YoY Change | +8% | +7% | +7% | +34% | |
| Inventory YoY Change | +10% | +10% | +9% | +31% | |
| Months of Inventory | 5.0 | ||||
There hasn’t been much movement in the sales or new listings rate since the start of the month, but that’s pretty normal for this time of year. Both should start to creep up as we move into March. Market conditions remain pretty close to what we had this time last year, with the somewhat higher sales rate about cancelled out by slightly higher new listings and more inventory.
The only other thing of note is that there were a few more over-ask sales last week, bringing us up to about 13% of resales going for over the asking price (defined as 1% or more over).
Looking at what sold over ask, it was one manufactured home, 6 condos in a broad price range, and 10 houses, with 9 of them being between $1M and $1.5M. Certainly still one of the most active parts of the market, with the CMHC allowing some buyers to reach up just into that 7 figure level. No huge over-asks, with the median just 2.5% above the list price, but certainly there are things moving if sellers care to price at market.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/03/04/february-market-steady-but-surge-on-pause/
Car manufacturers say they will run out of stock piled parts in ten days.
“Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the U.S. would likely meet Canada and Mexico “in the middle,” with an announcement coming as soon as Wednesday.”
Car manufacturers say they will run out of stock piled parts in ten days.
When I am personally buying I never look at the assessment; however, before each showing with clients I look at it knowing my clients will ask.
I just had an assessment appeal where I successfully lowered my assessment $354k. I asked for it to be lowered 754k. It is just guessing game at the end of the day.
NAFTA created a structure that many companies came to rely on. Saying that were were fine before NAFTA doesn’t mean that destroying that structure won’t do harm now.
Max , I like how u think, cheers
This Trump thing will just whither away like every other problem Canadians are faced with on a day to day basis. I give it 6 months and everything will be back to normal. I have seen many recessions, logging, fisheries, mining, construction, real estate. I give this little war a zero out of ten for the severity when all is said and done. IMO… Don’t freak out, The sun will rise again!
Ya , lots of opposition to nafta, lots of folks thought , maybe rightfully so that U.S would put Canadian businesses out of business. Didn’t really work out that way lol. But there was a lot of fear when it was implemented, and now a lot of fear if it was to disappear . Everything old is new again
“North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) established a free-trade zone in North America; it was signed in 1992 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States and took effect on Jan. 1, 1994.”
https://www.cbp.gov/trade/north-american-free-trade-agreement
Even before Napster!
The Auto Pact has been around for 60 years (since Pearson).
When we were first time buyers we cared about the assessment. I think we were worried about overpaying and the assessment is something tangible to gauge against. Like many first time buyers we also had our parents warning us that prices might decrease so it was scary. The assessment can help re-assure that you’re not overpaying (even if falsely). After buying a few times I don’t care about assessment nearly as much. We didn’t even ask for our last purchase and didn’t care when the realtor told us.
That was over 30 years ago dude…Like back in the 56k modem days.
Hmm. Difficult to believe. I don’t see a lot of overpaying in slow markets unlike in super hectic ones.
Are you saying the assessment was $200k off and so the buyers put weight on that and thought list was fair market value?
I can only really see two options here:
The second seems exceedingly unlikely. Especially in condos where assessments tend to be more accurate than single family
Which one is that? I know I overpaid a bit for my principal residence, seller refused to budge but it was the right product we were after (happy wife, happy life) and had no affordability issues so just sucked it up and paid. No point in nickel and diming at the expense of lifestyle if money is not an issue. Investments would be another story.
@Thurstin
You are absolutely right, we did fine pre-NAFTA.
Canada has resources that everyone needs or wants.
We need to “bring back” or “create” more of the value add in-house rather than shipping out
With automation and ai, we can be super competitive
Remember for RE to being a sound investment, we need…tons of good paying jobs.
Today’s BC budget IMO is a good start. It is 10$ billion in the red, but at least it is going towards CAPEX/infrastructure
We need to provide economics support/incentives for entrepreneurs to leverage what we have in BC…and there is lots
If you have any ideas, we should send them to our MLA! It has to be a team effort. With what Canada is blessed with, with a little ingenuity and elbow grease, we can indeed be one of the greatest nations in the world again!
I can’t speak for others but I think people, esp on this blog, do understand this. The % over or under for a region of time is a good indicator despite the noise on an individual basis. The message is that after assessments largely dropped, they are still over valued.
How do people still not understand that assessment literally means nothing on any particular individual property? Every week I see what I would describe as incredibly lucky sale (for the owner), but then I realize there are a lot of people without and common sense that are in a position to buy.
Recently a buyer overpaid by a solid 200k for a condo.
36% of properties in February sold under assesssment
I expect tariffs to a mere blip for Canada as well. Because Trump is bluffing as usual, and tariffs will be short lived.
The betting markets (poly market) now predict 60% chance the Canada tariffs will gone by May 2025.
CAD has just spiked 1%, on this breaking news “ Lutnick: Trump may roll back Mexico-Canada tariffs tomorrow”
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1897035232446177746
Yesterday is always the best time to buy real estate.
A number of SFH sales in the core today over asking price. Interesting market to gauge, sales pace higher than it has been the last couple of years but inventory also sneaking up. Odds are we ended up in another flat year despite all the noise and uncertainty.
When I had clients 2011-2014 buying SFHs in the core for around 500k +/- with a suite renting for $1,000/month +/- the doom and gloom on HHV was probably at an all time high.
Perhaps Thurstin, since they will be the few that have cash after a prolonged economic recession.
Cash is King during a recession.
Numbers, keep in mind Canada signed the free trade agreement in 88 , so not like it’s been around a 100 years, and we where doing swimmingly for a long time before Mulroney put pen to paper. So yes we got use to sending stuff back and forth , but I’m not seeing the big deal with big companies playing both sides of the border again
Groot, those people who sell in times of uncertainty will also buy long after the market has gone up, Those kinda folks are not the shakers and moversof the business world, they are the followers.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/02/24/chainsaws/#comment-126014
Isn’t that like saying I only buy stocks when they’re going up? We looked at a couple of houses during the pandemic when it was crickets out there. There was a house in 10 Mile Point for 960K that had peekaboo ocean views. I shudder to think what that would be worth now.
Best time to buy is when the market is crickets.
Thank you Trump~
1/ damage will be generational
2/ Canada is nimble, we’ll come out better…with time 3-5 years
3/ Need to attract our best and brightest back home
and finally…RE is IMO a hold right now, and a buy only if it is less than assessed.
Trump is mimicking Argentina in his approach to the American economy.
https://youtube.com/shorts/Yysaz_ljgyY?si=VlDsIHTSm85PVIrU
Typically, people will sell assets during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty to provide themselves with a money buffer for the future. I would rather have cash today than own a rental property.
When the world regains its sanity, I can always buy real estate again.
Definitely. If it felt like those times were good times to buy, we wouldn’t have seen such low sales. It was uncertain and scary times, and none were just like the previous ones.
Of course it’s not all emotion. Some people legitimately should not be buying if their jobs are at risk, and there’s no doubt more people’s jobs are at risk now. Just a garbage and completely unnecessary situation all round.
Leo , totally agree , can’t go wrong with doom and gloom . But I think it’s human nature to be fearful and it overpowers most financial decisions. Never understood why people dump property or stocks when shite hits the fan. I say QE here we come again lol
I’m thinking about this more from a zoomed out perspective. In the past, buyers that bought when sales were low and especially had been low for a few years did well. In each of those times it felt like a bad time to buy. Global pandemic, 5000 properties on the market, stagnant 90s economy and leaky condos, very bad job situation, etc.
I’m not cheerleading the market here or predicting some big price increase anytime soon, but just an observation.
Vicre, No real rush to sell , my place does have a suite and is 1800 on each floor so would be good for seniors and not so much as a young fella like myself lol
Good time to buy now compared to say December when prices were effectively the same? I don’t see the logic here
Seems like the higher end has really stalled, sorry thursty. Most SFH selling have suites or are suitable for retirees.
Lindt chocolate said they will ship from Europe instead of up from the U.S . We will c more of that happening . The U.S will be become the hermit kingdom while we continue to do trade with the world
100% agree with this.
Not quite that simple. Ask the US automakers if they think it’s a blip. Some things can be onshored quickly with the only impact being higher costs, but others will take a quite a long time to extricate.
Agree it may be a good time to buy.
I will note that historically when sales were down and stayed down for a bit in Victoria it was in fact a good time to buy.
Well the first two already happened (not stops obviously, but greatly reduced) so I’m not sure it sets up a clear answer for the third.
I would say that lower interest rates on housing is a massive lever that to date has worked most of the time to offset just about any other shock. Anyway I don’t expect price drops, just more stagnation for longer
This trade war is a statistically blip for the US…their GDP is 25 to 30 trillion depending on how you measure it.
Yes lots of unnecessary fear out there . We might c a bigger cut in interest rates and a 2008 response , now might be a great time to buy that new house . The U.S has more to lose in a trade war than Canada.
Or something unpredictable happens like everyone stops travelling and buying Teslas and with interest rates heading further lower real estate gains. I don’t personally believe this will happen, but you just never know.
People recognizing that it’s a real thing. Also some pretty bad early indicators of the economy have been coming out of the US in recent days.
Whoa. Stock market’s been up and down but tariffs have really caused a drop today. Be interesting to see how all the uncertainty affects housing. Hard to imagine real estate markets gaining ground right now.
Patrick 38% for January was good relative to Vancouver and Toronto. Victoria is doing fine relative to most of the cities in Canada.
I could not find data for February for the other cities as it wouldn’t be relevant to compare Victoria’s February numbers to January numbers in other cities.
When or if I can get the numbers for other cities in February I will post them.
5 year bond yield under 2.5% this morning.
I hope you’re being sarcastic?
Looks like Feb 2025 Victoria SNLR is 46, not 38.
From Marko’s post, Feb 2025 saw 528 sales and 1124 new listings.
That would be a SNLR of 46% (528/1154) . Which is in the 40-60 range, as you’ve told us… “ A ratio between 40 and 60 percentage points (ppts) indicates a balanced market, priced right for demand.”
That 46 SNLR is up from 36% in Jan 2025, another good sign for the market.
Toronto and Vancouver had the weakest demand for housing in Canada in January.
The Sales to New Listings Ratio (SNLR) is an industry-preferred indicator of fundamental demand, and does exactly what one would think it does; it’s the ratios of homes sold to homes newly listed for sale. A ratio between 40 and 60 percentage points (ppts) indicates a balanced market, priced right for demand. Above 60% and the ratio indicates the market is undersupplied, and typically leads to rising prices. Finally, below 40% is an oversupply and prices are expected to fall. Fairly straight-forward, right?
There’s a few caveats, with the biggest being velocity. Fast moving ratios often indicate a sudden shift in market pressures, and prices can move more like the ratio it’s heading towards rather than the actual print. For example, a suddenly tight market can see a sudden surge in ratio, and prices can rip higher with a balanced SNLR. At the same time, demand can fall off a cliff and prices plunge with the ratio also in balanced territory. These are just guidelines of market expectations.
SNLR
Toronto: 31
Vancouver: 28
Victoria: 38
National: 41
Edmonton: 66
Calgary: 50
Yes I post that chart every month, you can see it for January a few posts back, will also be on the February update (posted tonight or tomorrow, I’m operating on reduced sleep from the earthquake haha)
>> Net Unconditional Sales 528 470
Active Listings 2,630 2,364
Nice.
Feb. Sales up 12% YOY. (528/470)
and Months-of-Inventory fell slightly from last year.
2025 MOI is 4.98 (2630/528)
2024 MOI was 5.03 (2364/470)
Hey Leo, haven’t read in a while, glad you’re still pumping out interesting and useful work. Do you still track the ratio of BC Assessment # vs selling prices? I always found that an interesting number, and I recently found myself wondering what it’s like these days for condos.
The U.S consumer is starting to sour on the economy , good news for Canada
Marko, those are some good numbers, and with Canadas strong economy the real estate market should continue to strengthen . It looks like Canada has the U.S over the barrel with tariffs and it will be a nothingburger imo
That’s what happens when the flippers are discouraged from entering the market. The crap piles up. Most buyers want something they can move into and enjoy. Few younger buyers have the skills to do any renovations and paying someone has gotten very expensive.
Lots of listings piling up. Also heard that some clients getting cold feet and not pulling the trigger on homes they would have a month ago.
Month Feb Feb
Year 2025 2024
Net Unconditional Sales 528 470
New Listings 1,154 1,088
Active Listings 2,630 2,364
My mind is blown, Max rides a bike, good for you Max!
IamGroot how do you know they’re estate sales? And if they started off listing before probate was granted which is what I assume you mean when you say estate sales after months wouldn’t that condition re probate that shows up disappear as probate would be granted and then they can be sold “normally?”
“ I was surprised to hear from acquaintances the horror stories where they are trying to transfer their kids to other schools because the teachers can’t focus on the class as they are mainly tasked with handling behavioral issues or don’t teach reading and writing as a priority.”
Don’t overlook school catchments if you have or are planning to have kids. It’s sad but very true that there are massive differences between schools in the core.
If court ordered are not your cup of tea, then there are 11 estate sales listed ranging from $288,000 to $2,099,900. Nearly equally split between condos and single family.
Most of the houses need at least some updating and some haven’t been on the market since the 1980’s and 1990’s.
A couple of the condos are in 55 plus buildings and have been listed for over three months.
More listings than most years, as in the past they were kept, remodeled, and then rented. But with today’s weaker rental market and higher maintenance costs the families are opting for the money.
https://youtu.be/kXraGktAsKo?si=b36ldalCrJ9DcLpB
I gotta give Langford credit for getting Jordie Lunn Bike Park built so quickly. If it was Victoria there would have been another five years of consultation and impact studies. For me it’s still faster to go to Hartland, but for anyone on the western side of town JLBP is awesome.
Lots of listings hitting the market.
We are not shopping around at all. We bought a sf with an income suite and have done extensive renovations. I plan on staying here forever but I’ve said that before and life changes. But no we definitely aren’t in the market – especially for a foreclosure.
Now if we came in to a sudden massive influx of cash I’d probably keep this house with its mortgage and rent it all out and buy another house cash. I like real estate – i can touch it/see it, and that gives me comfort.
Yes Dee it is. These are properties that have gone through the process of discussion with their lender to save their home and are now advertised as court ordered sales. In the past very few would get to this point as they would have been sold by the owner.
13 is not a large number, but for every one that gets to this point many more home owners are not meeting their debt obligations and are looking to either refinance with another lender or sell using their own real estate agent.
So Dee, are you thinking about buying a foreclosure?
Is that more foreclosures than usual?
I personally find cycling more challenging to figure out with kids.
100%. Biking has gotten so much better in Victoria and now Saanich. A great thing and I look forward to more safe routes.
That said I also drive quite a bit with kids there’s always places to go and don’t find the driving experience bad at all. Never had a problem getting where I need to go, never had a problem finding parking when I get there. Sometimes there’s traffic and I have to spend a few more minutes being coddled on a comfortable seat listening to some music.
13 properties listed for sale under court order in Greater Victoria ranging from $359,900 in downtown to a high of $1,600,000 in Oak Bay. Equally split between condos and single family homes.
Higher interest rates from when they were purchased/refinanced and rising costs of renovations seem to be the most common theme.
Before I go away for the day, you guys gotta checkout this black diamond track in Langford. Sooke Hills is nuts, you need balls of steel to do some of those runs. Were talking 40′ drop ins down to a 20″x 60′ log suspended 12′ in the air over a river!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWNYBDdMSJc
This run would be considered relatively easy…Kind of like Linton’s Loop up on Mount Washington.
This is where I ride my $5k carbon fibre mountain bike…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiMjWTex_sI
You guys should give it a go sometime…Its right in your backyard.
I do have a bike and do use it but I dont commute to work nor do I ride on the main artery roads. But ya when it’s nice out I do use it for errands depending where i am going.
Funny, I hate driving and look forward to riding, running or walking to do most of my errands. I guarantee if you had people try riding to the mall with a backpack on one time instead of driving on a nice day they would come back with a smile on their face and be in a much better mood from the endorphins and the freedom of not being stuck in traffic inside a car. It certainly sounds like several of you complaining about bike lanes and bikers could use a change in mood 🙂
You better get use to bikers and traffic getting slower and slower as its only going to get worse for cars as the city gets more populated and city planners continue to allow other users to share the road, I guess we will see how many thumbs up this post gets vs the posts made by people who hate bikes.
Have a great day, I’m doing a quick meditation then out on my bike for some errands.
Now do the increase in the number of households that has a hhi over 250k/year
Oh good, I was about to ask my wife if she splashed someone this week lol.
The best time to buy was always yesterday.
Affordability is at historic lows and prices are high and that has lead to a shift for young home owners from single family homes to condominiums. Two-thirds of home listings in the Victoria core are now strata homes. Up from half just a decade ago.
And that has shown up in the different appreciation rates for strata homes versus single family. As strata homes increased in value form $327,000 in 2015 to $605,000 in 2024 or 85%. While single family homes in the core increased from $630,000 to $1,250,000 or 98%
He/she got a DUI and now has to tow his/her three kids to school on his/her bike.
Actually 99% + of Victoria drivers are the epitome of courtesy to bikers and pedestrians. Sometimes almost overcorteous.
I agree, if they are riding on a main road then they should have some type of insurance.
LMAO sounds like you got splashed on by someone driving a European performance SUV.
Really depends if your neighbors are pos houses and the actual lots themselves.
Mouthbreathers like this are exactly why people will continue lobby for bike lanes. 2 tonne SUVs incompetently piloted by small-handed, angry, insecure, backward-baseball cap-wearing, wealth bragging troglodytes
Good luck with the house hunt in the core.
No I drive in most of the week usually when I am not travelling. Blanshard is a little messed up after the arena. I usually work a bit from home in the morning and get downtown after 9am.
Me too! I am a road star and it costs me $86 per/mo for vehicle insurance. If the cyclists want a piece of the road they should have to pay the same price! They should also be required to carry a licence to safely operate the bicycle and have it renewed every five years for $75 just like everyone else that’s on the road. If they are towing three kids on a trailer behind the bicycle, additional insurance costs should also apply.
If they get doored by my truck, they should also have to fix/replace my door!
Dee, I used Shine Pros last summer. They cleaned my flat roof and the flashing and the upper trim that runs around the house. I would recommend them.
And nobody gives a shit.
You haven’t driven downtown lately. The maddening traffic jamming policies are in full effect. I bike almost every day, but I don’t consider myself a cyclist (probably because I follow the rules of the road like a car). The main reason I ride is because it automatically builds some fitness into my day which is tough to find with two small children.
Meh, pretty well the same risk everywhere for that now. Those big Broadmead lots could likely fit more multiplex units on them than any list around here.
Another main thing is to minimize the risk of a multiplex or apartment going up adjacent to your house.
I hate bikers with a passion…. 15-20min is pretty much driving time from anywhere in the core to downtown.
Buying walking distance to all three (technically 4) levels of schools was the best thing we ever did
I highly recommend these folks.
http://www.allexteriorvictoria.ca/
To each their own, we almost did Broadmead, even though Lochside is a well rated school out there and have friends that said their kids experience is great, but it doesn’t have an emersion program (would have to get the kids out to Keating for that out there). The main thing is for people get what matches their life. We save a ton of time and stress by just being able to get the kids out of the house without any time or planning. The two minute walk to Gonzales Beach or the 5 minute bike ride to Willows Beach and my 15 minute bike ride to the office gains me so much time for other things. I was surprised to hear from acquaintances the horror stories where they are trying to transfer their kids to other schools because the teachers can’t focus on the class as they are mainly tasked with handling behavioral issues or don’t teach reading and writing as a priority. As for getting to other parts of town, Berryman Farms has free delivery and Costco has InstaCart delivery.
Anyone have recommendations for company to soft wash exterior of a house and do windows?
We were looking all over Victoria and finally decided to buy as close to the kids school as possible. In retrospect that was a great decision. But their school is also a short bike ride to my spouse work in downtown and right by many amenities and only a 10 minute drive to my work. So yeah it was the best decision and I’m happy we did it. It was actually my son who was still small and we asked him what he likes in a house and he didn’t care as long as he could walk to school.
Personally not a big fan of that neighborhood. I like more trees, wider streets, bigger lots, double car garages, nicer and well kept homes across the neighborhood and buried power lines etc. location is only close to downtown but not great for other parts of town.
When I’m driving in my 3/4 ton, 4×4, pickup truck in the core, I can immediately tell when someone is burning fossil fuels such as natural gas or home heating oil in the furnace since I have very sensitive lungs. It also saddens me very deeply knowing its a depleting natural resource.
Added water closet on the main floor in addition to the bathroom for when company is over.
Whats wrong with a burn barrel in the backyard? I have one right beside my outhouse, behind the glass pit. These municipalities are taking it way too far! Burning wood in an efficient wood stove is atleast a renewable, carbon neutral energy. Natural gas/ Home heating oil is the burning of fossil fuel to heat the home and is a depleting resource.
Hopefully you were able to fit 2 bathrooms on the main floor…..
Meh , not a big deal if some companies want to sit up office in the U.S. Wasn’t that long ago companies had factories on both sides of the border .
BC gov, Navy or UVIC? (-;
We have friends trying to sell their places to get to our neighbourhood because of the schools, parks, being walkable, closer to the office and the types of neighbours. The reno of the untouched 1950s house is quite the project with its own frustrations, but we are enjoying the lifestyle and location. However, they were able to get their heat pumps before the rule changes..lol..
Biggish local employer thinking of moving operations to US. What a mess.
You’d think so, but they really threw a wrench into it by trying to steer it too much. It could be the classic policy thing of announcing and implementing something, but then make the rules so it doesn’t happen effectively and costs very little in a budget. All the glory and none of the burden (a classic government move historically by all parties). How much impact can a program have it basically cuts out the lower mainland and south of the malahat by the rules it operates under?
“ I personally think you are much better off with a crappy house in a desirable neighborhood versus the other way around.”
Yes, this. We learned that lesson the hard way by buying a nice house in not quite the neighbourhood we wanted before having kids. Once there were kids involved, living in a less-than-ideal neighbourhood was much less tolerable. In retrospect we should have prioritized location over pretty much everything the first time around.
Owner builder emailed me today that he passed the exam with a score of 75/100. He emailed BC Housing to ask if they can let him know which questions he got wrong so he doesn’t make those mistakes building his house….reply from BC Housing
“We do not provide exam questions for exam integrity reasons.”
We just don’t like productivity of any sort in Canada unfortunately. Secondly, glad we can help out American companies that own hotel chains in Victoria by banning Airbnb 🙂
I’ll stick to natural gas, if it wasn’t captured and used for heating, it would be burned off into the atmosphere anyway.
Wowser. Id think they’d want everyone to switch to a heat pump.
They have an entire breakdown on rebate site about how they examine the prior gas usage back 10 years to ensure you are eligible for the dual-fuel. Maybe someone can fake it if they can find an old used propane furnace, but I am guessing those are rare.
EABro. The Trio lands. I lived across from there in one of the Sayward Hill Townhomes 2006-2011 and it was sure nice when they shut down the gravel mart and there were no more trucks rolling by all the time. They had some building proposals that I saw over the years. Various phases of single family homes and some townhouses. I don’t think I remember multi-family back then in the mix. They just built out the last condo buildings right beside the townhomes after I left. The whole Sayward development is mostly multi family. Condos, townhouses, low and mid rise buildings. I was excited once to think of new houses in the Saanich area. We have very little land for new single-family houses. It was supposed to have a large park dedicated space at the highest elevation. There was one behind the townhouses that most people probably don’t even know is there. Some trails in the forest and a playground and green space. With the Haro and other new condo style buildings popping up some ground oriented building would be nice. I’ll have to check the development tracker to see what it shows.
Can you put in a used gas one then switch it out later for a heat pump? I’m guessing that’s not allowed.
We got about 50% of our heat pump paid under old rebate. Our heat pump saves money in the winter and has AC in summer.
We’re talking about a wood stove, not a burn barrel in the yard.
Modern wood stoves don’t produce much pollution
Canadas economy grew 2.6 points in q4 , wow just wow . No recession yet but there’s always this year
Congratulations Dippers and eco-zealots, in the attempt to over engineer the outcomes of the clean energy and renovation rebates towards your political wedges, I will not be getting any form of electric heat pump. This is due to the removal of the oil furnace from the dual-fuel replacement reno rebate (only applies to changing out old gas and propane furnaces now). Apparently, those changing over from oil must only be able to get an electric heat pump with an all electric backup, but wait, this program is now income and house value tested. So, with the value of homes in Victoria, and the incomes needed to buy here, most will no longer qualify for any significant Clean BC rebates on the all electric heat pump options. There’s also blame for the feds here that decided to partner with province and allowed to manage the fed portion of the rebates. So, the result is, I will be pushing 20 to 25 years of carbon footprint out of a natural gas furnace where it likely could have easily been a heat pump or dual-fuel if not for political based incompetence pushed into policy.
Sketchy by WPG standards, perhaps. But that was back when Vancouver had no visible homeless or addicts outside Skid Row, as it was then called.
I’m quite familiar with the neighbourhood back then as I had friends who lived there during my university days.
Sounds quite like Burnside to me
Kits was considered sketchy. Filled with Greeks and other dodgy immigrants, at least that was the snobby attitude in Dunbar and West Point Grey
Dollarwise, buying in an area before it is “discovered” can add to the gains in owning real estate. The obvious counterpoint is a risk that your “diamond in the rough” could just stay rough.
Greg us looking for a SFH for under a million in burnside. Seems more realistic than finding one for under q million in other core areas. I’m thinking it’s a million bc that’s the budget.
It’s not possible to have a project of that scope and no controversy. It’s inevitable and cannot block progress. I’m sure the developers know this and have the money to float it as it proceeds at a snails pace through all the hurdles.
why does it have to be under a million? Can you find a nice house in Burnside for under million?
…and the story goes on and on:
President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for being “disrespectful” Friday in an extraordinary Oval Office meeting, then abruptly called off the signing of a minerals deal with the U.S.
In what might be the clearest example of NIMBYism I’ve seen in a while, over 1,000 people have signed a petition to stop the development of a 26-acre gravel pit:
https://www.oakbaynews.com/local-news/saanich-resident-feels-blindsided-by-development-rising-from-former-gravel-pit-7850502
I don’t any good houses in nice neighborhoods under $1M currently on the market. Aside from outliers (tiny lots and a house that needs to be taken down to the studs, etc.), finding anything in a decent part of Oak Bay or Fairfield for under $1M seems unlikely. The house you linked in the Gorge area is good value at list price, given it’s move-in ready with a suite and full-height ceilings. It’s on a small lot and not my favorite area, but I’d expect it to get bid up a fair bit. There are some sub-$1M options in decent areas, but in Esquimalt, Rockheights is a better bet than the Gorge for this in my opinion. A few homes there have sold under $1M on good-sized lots -though they still needed fairly significant renovations and no suite
Can you find a crappy house for under a million in day Fairfield or oak bay? Is that possible?
I personally think you are much better off with a crappy house in a desirable neighborhood versus the other way around.
Or, Maggie, they just want to blow it all up and rebuild from blank slate.
Yeah I don’t know what happened to East Van. It used to be so fun mid -late 2000s. You’re right I think the problems started during Covid. Maybe it’s better now but I remember regretting taking my kids down the drive – and I have a good tolerance since we’ve traveled a lot (even with kids). It was weird.
But I also briefly lived in an old communal house in kits and there was an old hippy who lived there and he told me kits used to be very sketchy. So who knows neighborhoods change.
I think it’s safe to say though that in general neighborhoods closer to the core are more desirable.
Given what the “fiscally responsible” Republicans are about to do to their financial situation, Zelensky would be better off looking for help elsewhere. The current budget before the House blows another 2.6 trillion and raises the debt ceiling another 4 trillion. This is even after their draconian cuts to things like Medicaid. Perhaps they’re secretly counting on revenues from tariffs to mitigate their train wreck, counting on the fact that the idiots who supported them won’t realize who’s paying for it. It’s an unfettered kleptocracy at this point, and there’s a reason that guys like Jeff Bezos were at the inauguration.
Dee , Van is in a funny spot since Covid , I had a warehouse there back in the day and commercial was a great place for a long lunch . Nowadays I do a B line for west Van and pretty much stay on the shore.
@Marko were in Esquimalt – STR not allowed period. Pretty dumb given we’d only rent it when out of town on family vacation. No objective rationale as far as i can tell.
Fairfield is obviously prettier than burnside or Esquimalt but it’s not attainable for a vast majority of people. The choice becomes living in a more diverse area still close to downtown perhaps not as pretty (atm) or commute from west shore. I’d pick (and did) one of the less pretty neighborhood any day.
Commercial drive was awesome for a long while and we lived there. Sadly I went back a couple of years ago and it has become very sketchy. Maybe that was just a bad weekend or something but the vibe had definitely changed.
I hope someone out there agrees with VicRE and wants to get out of the BG neighborhood (and lists their home). Everyone I have talked to (who actually appreciates some diversity) loves it. Sadly, it also isn’t that inexpensive anymore – nothing below $1M that is a decent size/away from Gorge or Burnside (and in good shape).
Well then everyone should get on it and buy as many sfh as they can in that area.
SO sad to see Trump throwing Zelensky under the bus just to further his Putin mancrush.
As an occasional backup absolutely nothing. As a regular heat source in the core, irresponsible in my opinion.
Would you like it if a neighbour idled a big diesel 24/7? A woodstove is that pollution and more.
Least desirable neighbourhood in core Victoria is still pretty decent. I remember when the area around Commercial in Vancouver was the sketchiest of sketch. Now it’s total yuppieville and considered a prime area. Vic West is in ongoing gentrification. Burnside Gorge is probably not far down the list
I don’t know how to respond but I will try, Burnside is probably the least desirable neighborhood in the core and If you have a view that this area is under valued and want to make a play then good on you for taking the initiative. Personally I am not sure if this is the right point in the cycle to do that, undesirable neighborhoods always gets killed in downturns even flat markets, its usually less risky to buy during an upswing as those they peak after the desirable neighborhoods.
Josh, many people have asthma or lung conditions and wood burning is brutal for these people or anyone really, when I’m running in the colder weather I can immediately tell when someone’s burning wood as I have sensitive lungs, this is why open burning is banned in all but rural and backward municipalities.
What’s wrong with woodstoves or fireplaces? I guess if you never lived through a serious blizzard or ice storm with no power then you would think of them as not necessary. Both oil and gas furnaces need electricity to run.
I find the body language in the picture fascinating and it tells the whole story.
Depending on the municipality you can do this right now.
On a side note, CRA is not allowing expenses to be claimed for “non-compliant” short term rentals but CRA definitions are the odds with BC and COV…trying to figure it out with my accountant 🙂
A portion of every day is spent just dealing with non-sense bureaucracy.
Interesting. Montreal cracking down on illegal STRs by imposing a 3 month period where STRs are allowed – not allowed outside that period except in limited circumstances.
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6629921
I wish our STR legislation wasn’t such a blunt tool. It would be better if it allowed STR for a certain number of days per year. For example allowed to rent as STR 90 sleeps in a year. For us we are not taking a long term rental off the market if we rent our place to a family as an STR when we are traveling for a few weeks. Instead these homes sit empty when they could be housing family tourists.
VicRE the area is changing. Low income people can’t buy SFH. I know many younger people in gov who seek to buy in burnside area for the reasons Greg listed.
It’s a low income neighborhood with rundown SFH and apartment complexes. Cheap in comparison for a reason with the exception of very few isolated spots along the water.
Max- Glad to hear you use your garage to store BioBricks and grow potatoes. At least you’re not cooking meth.
https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/02/24/chainsaws/#comment-125883
I think it’s still one of the most undervalued areas in town. Right beside the Gorge, 5min drive to DT or less than 10min to DT by bike along the goose. Easy and quick (with no traffic) to get on both the 1 and 17….that is why every house sells quickly. Great TH developments going up all over.
@Marko that demystifies it a bit. It is a very nice corner.
Bullshit. The primary heat for my 2600 sq/ft SFH is a woodstove. Baseboard heat is the secondary. I have no problem with house insurance. I get my fuel from BioBurn these days. Its a renewable energy and they deliver it right into my garage on pallets using a mobile forklift. It cost me $950 (Taxes/ delivery all in) per heating season to heat the house using biobricks.
https://bioburn.ca/why-choose-us-about-page/
I am not affiliated in anyway with BioBurn.
Vicre, if I can’t sell my shack this year I will blame u for putting a jinx on the market .
This one has to go to court for court approval and the accepted offer going to court is already over asking price and my prediction will be further bid up in court.
Anything that looks too good to be true usually is.
What about this one Greg? It’s on the Esquimalt side of Gorge but it’s on Selkirk – a beautiful street and easy walk to Banfield park. We live around there and love it. In that part of Esquimalt we use the Vic West side amenities more. Esquimalt folks are pretty laid back too 🙂
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27825866/931-selkirk-ave-esquimalt-kinsmen-park
I warned you thursty!
Why would you want a sfh there unless it’s backing right onto the gorge?
During times of macroeconomic uncertainty there is a natural tendency for people to sell off surplus assets in order to provide a buffer for future expenses.
I am anticipating that this will begin to show up as an increase in listings for downtown condos. By the spring there could be a minimum 60% increase in the number of downtown condo listings with the months of inventory for downtown condos in excess of seven.
Initially an increase in supply will provide more selection for prospective purchasers which historically has lead to an increase in prices during the Spring, but by Summer that momentum is typically lost and prices begin to decline.
If you own several downtown investment condos -what are your plans?
Yes – its crazy. All these listings and there is not one SFH for sale in Burnside Gorge (besides a couple on double lots and priced for redevelopment). There was one listing on Balfour – 2 bed 1 bath on a nice corner lot that was listed at $1.1M+ but looks like it sold.
72 new listings in the last 24 hrs, definitively seeing a build in inventory. Just not the SFH <$1 mill core category. We will end February at a 10 year high in active listings (for end of February).
Couple of close friends in government and neither reporting having to go back to office chatter at this point and time.
Bureaucracy isn’t the problem, it is the greedy Airbnb owner -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1iy6lx1/lawsuit_against_province_over_shortterm_rental/
on the same day this gets posted with 170 comments -> https://www.reddit.com/r/VictoriaBC/comments/1iyat8w/so_is_it_impossible_to_find_a_decent_qualitysized/
We’ve banned the foreign buyer, we’ve banned rental restrictions in stratas, we’ve banned the greedy Airbnb owner, and a bunch of other things and rents are still insane, go figure.
I have this feeling people will never clue in. Government has done an amazing job of pitting people against each other. How is no one questioning why SFH starts are likely at a 80 year low? (I say likely as I can’t find stats going back to 1945). Why is there a 100% useless obstacle to building SFHs in a housing crisis plus a 80 year low in SFH housing starts?
We are building 1/3 the SFHs we were 20 years ago when the population was a million smaller -> https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/New-Homes-Registry-Report-December-2024.pdf
Yeah the back to the office thing isn’t happening for the civil service this year. Don’t need insider contacts for that – just common sense. Maybe when a new government gets in.
Yes. Especially when the “best” argument against robust checks & balances on how AI is developed becomes “we can’t do that because it means China will leapfrog us”, I think you have a real point…
interesting to watch the world believe that it just needs one more magnet to make it’s perpetual motion machine.
AI is a double edged sword and it will take intelligence to handle it.
A new study suggests that human are exhibiting signs of cognitive decline.
What could go wrong:)
I looked at some examples of exterior wood burning furnaces and they seemed quite expensive. Installation seems like it would also be expensive. Then all the work required to keep it going. I can see it in a remote location where there are few options, but can’t rationalize it given the other alternatives.
In ground.
How hot does the pipe get going into the house? I’m not familiar with this type although I think I saw one on TV once.
Strongly suggest checking out the provincial regulations.
Exterior wood burning furnace. Plumb it into an air handling unit much like a heat pump. Insurance won’t mind it being away from the house.
Because of the “fasist” city council bending over for big wood.
Your insurance company won’t be impressed, wood stoves are not appreciated.
I grew up splitting firewood. You do get strong at least in specific ways. I used to be pretty good at these high-striker games you’d see at fairs
/
i cant belive wood buring is still allowed in the core?
You’re forgetting the the savings on the gym from splitting the firewood. The firewood would also be locally sourced and organic. As well, the pollution aspect is mitigated because it doesn’t require extensive shipping to get it here. The main point actually was they over engineered the rebate system to ensure few will be going out. The feds also should not have partnered with province, having the province administering the federal portion of the rebates.
You could use a line of credit if you can’t afford a heat pump or natural gas furnace. Setting aside the pollution aspect, wood is only economical in Victoria if you gather wood yourself or have a line on cheap firewood.
The heating system rebates are pretty useless in Victoria now. If you’re at the income level to buy a house (along with the value of the house), you don’t qualify for the rebates for a heat pump. If you’re on oil, you don’t qualify for the dual fuel rebate because that only applies to old natural gas or propane furnaces. However, the prices of the heating system are artificially inflated because of the rebates. So, I believe the only viable option is to change my old oil furnace out for wood burning furnace.
One tariff related thing I’m keeping my eye on is the potential retaliation against countries that level digital services taxes. He just signed an EO to investigate possible responses to these countries. If that ends up affecting Canadian workers who work remotely for US companies, that could impact us.
I’m all for the cuts that DOGE is doing. We could do with a lot of that here. Just look at how much our bureaucracy has grown in the last 10 years. It’s beyond crazy. And folks are losing their minds over any cuts whatsoever. The research grants mentioned in this thread for example, US universities levy 65% administrative fees. It’s obscene. And US students on average now are not able to pay down their student loan debt over their career. And the department of education, where the administrator expenses have exploded and the educational outcomes have plummeted. It obvious that there are ways to do things more efficiently. And it is necessary to avoid hyperinflation. $2T added to the debt each year, and that is accelerating.
Rather than focus on Trump’s tariffs, we need to focus on actually creating a productive economy, not kid ourselves that paper gains on housing constitutes any sort of productivity. Canada’s GDP per capita is worse that USA’s least productive state (Mississippi) because we think that houses and government jobs build wealth. Of course we’re vulnerable to other countries levying tariffs on us, because we hold an extremely weak hand of cards. No point crying about it. It’s competition, and they’re winning, by far.
Becoming?
MELANIA GOES UNDER
The cryptos backed by Trump and Melania have been going down since they were launched. MELANIA is down more than 95% in less than 2 months and TRUMP is down more than 80%.
Bitcoin is also down 25% in the same timeframe. I hope nobody fell for the bitcoin pumping here.
sorry really, im running 2 screen with and not guving full attentrion with one watching my trades \ and other this fourm the message is more important than the spelling, you know who i have heard is one of the worst spellers in messages, Bill Gates.
Bobby k, yep I was thinking the same , and today trump has pushed off tariffs for another month , he’s really becoming a bullshit artist lol
If you can’t spell it, it really brings doubt to you actually knowing what the word means. That, and the misplaced hyperbole and false analogy really undermines any point you are attempting to put forward.
Yes, I think given the complete chaos and uglyness of what’s currently taking place in the US, Canadian’s are more likly to shy away from electing a faintly similar to some extent fascist conservative government.
It would appear that all Carney has to do is distance himself from Trudeau and shift slightly to the right both economically and socially to win the swing voters to win the next election.
I do wonder if Trump is orchestrating chaos to benefit his “wealthy elite” for them to profit financially, it has certainly created a wonderful trading environment for experienced traders.
I feel like Carney may wilt a bit once in the hot seat. Plus the Liberal brand is very damaged.
OTOH PP has a problem as well. Having positioned himself as the northern Trump doesn’t look so smart now that Premier Trump is public enemy number one. Not all Conservatives are Trump supporters, but nearly all Trump supporters are Conservatives
Quadra-McKenzie plan to be revised to include fewer tall buildings, more input
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/quadra-mckenzie-plan-to-be-revised-to-include-fewer-tall-buildings-more-input-10287383
Ukraine, although resource rich, does not have much rare earth minerals. Plus , the cost to mine them could easily exceed their value. Mining is a tough business, the deposits have to be exceptional to consider building a mine. They do have rich uranium deposits.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-19/trump-s-insistence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong
Keen observers of Trump will note that as usual there is less than meets the eye. So much winning.
The United States and Ukraine have reached a deal providing access to the European country’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources, US President Donald Trump has said. Trump said the deal could be worth $1 trillion and will ensure that American taxpayers “get their money back, plus”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/2/26/trump-says-ukraines-zelensky-to-sign-very-big-deal-on-rare-earths
Given the topic is Chainsaws. The cutting of Government fat. I would like to think any geopolitical discussions are welcome in this thread.
Lol, I’m really non political , I’m good with whatever and in fact I have not voted in any election for about 40 years . I think the last time was bill Bennet in like 81 lol
Lean left much? Ipsos poll tickets…
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca
Max, sorry man but the conservatives are slipping and the liberals are leading in the latest ipsos poll. Carneymania sweeping the country
On CNN- Trump announces the creation of a Gold Card, an automatic green card for the small sum of $5 million U.S., you get immediate entry into the U.S.
I understand reality is hard for some people. We need Mark Carney like we need a hole in the head! The writing is on the wall. We need to maintain a healthy, vibrant, friendly, positive, (going in the right direction) business relationship with our friends and family south of the border and That is that…End of story!
That’s exactly what I was saying. What I didn’t understand is your comment that “ And science will not progress as it has.”. I think science will progress faster. And we’ll need more phd’s that understand and use the ai to make it happen. The CEO of NVidia has recently said something similar, and advises people to go into fields like “digital biology” where they can harness AI and make great progress. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/issue-24-why-nvidias-ceo-would-study-biology-age-ai-alana-variano-siiqc
Just pointing out if they were planning on calling people back in it wouldn’t make sense to get rid of real estate and consolidate work locations… only to have to reacquire them again later this year when they tell people to come in. No idea how bargaining is going – i don’t work in a BCGEU environment.
Didn’t know we are at the end of 2025 already…. How’s the collective bargaining negotiations going?
Reading through the changes didn’t realize it cost so much to file a disclosure statement, what da…
lol, we will never ever have affordable housing. 27k fee to submit a disclosure statement to a government authority, that is insane.
Rodger , as long as Canadians keep spending we are going to be alright . Went out for dinner last nite and the place was chalk a block , good to c so many happy people and better yet I was told a few Americans in the crowd too
STEM PhD students and postdocs are already using AI tools—and many are actively developing them further. In fields like medical research, AI is driving breakthroughs that were previously unimaginable.
But this doesn’t mean we no longer need bright minds in STEM labs working on solutions. The benefits of funding scientific research far outweigh the costs, not just in terms of economic return but in advancing knowledge for the good of humankind. Scientific progress isn’t solely about job prospects in industry; it’s about tackling complex problems—many of which won’t be solved by private-sector investment because they aren’t immediately profitable. Some of the most fundamental advancements come from academic research that lays the groundwork for future innovations.
AI is a tool, not a scientist. Many of the greatest discoveries happen at the intersection of disciplines, where human insight is essential to connect biology, chemistry, physics, and engineering in ways that drive real innovation. AI struggles with cross-disciplinary thinking, ethical judgment, and nuanced decision-making. Human oversight is critical to ensuring scientific progress remains responsible and impactful.
Life shouldn’t be solely about employability or homeownership – although we have certainly incentivized this in Canada. Scientific advancement should be a powerful motivator in our society. The pursuit of knowledge, driven by dedicated researchers, is what leads to real breakthroughs—and AI should be seen as an asset in that process, not a replacement for the brilliant minds pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.
Um really , all of those are great ideas and I think Canada is up for the challenge. The U.S is just holding us back , I c lots of opportunity to make a buck , and with that comes higher house prices . If I wasn’t so lazy and comfortable I would be chasing some of that gold
Good thing we have no East to West bottlenecks and we have really developed additional capacity in ports, built new freight rail, highways and pipelines over the last 20 years with no governments here obstructing it to score wedge issue points. Oh wait a sec…
>> And science will not progress as it has.
I don’t agree with this prediction. The explosion of AI is an incredible tool, especially used in the hands of researchers and others with advanced degrees. Your son doing research will have these tools that were unavailable to those before him.
The unemployment rate for PhD stem graduates in 2023 was 1.4%. Yes, it is higher now, but it isn’t Armageddon. And I expect your son is near the top of his class and will have no issues finding work anyway.
We’ve heard similar forecasts of “doom-n-gloom” in 2001, 2008 and 2020. That turned out to be very wrong.
If only we can talk ourselves into higher real estate prices…
Economic cycles don’t depend up on what people say or think. If people lose jobs or if inflation eats up their income, they will cut back on their spending, causing a recession.
While the Canadian economy may be already in a recession, the US economy is heading into a stagflation. Inflation (including CPI and PCE) is rising in the US, and Canada is not far behind. Tariffs and counter-tariffs will raise the prices of all products and a significant part of that will be passed onto the consumers. The most likely reaction by the consumers is to cut back on consumption. This will show up as reduced retail sales, even in nominal terms.
Unfortunately no perfect way but a huge need to go in and just completely 100% cancel a lot of things overnight (I don’t like Trump or Elon as people, but there is merit to doge imo). Hundreds of useless things out there, but one I am familiar with and receive multiple email about every day. Here is what would happen if someone had some common sense to scrap the owner-builder department at BC Housing overnight
Positives
i/ Less government spending (which comes from our taxes)
ii/ Improved speed at which housing can be built (often people are held up months by the exam)
iii/ Lower cost to building housing (exam costs money plus people buy useless courses to try and pass the exam)
iv/ Less bureaucracy at the municipal level (less paperwork on the municipal permitting checklists)
v/ Less bureaucracy when transacting properties (right now if you want to sell an owner builder home in the first 10 days you have to apply for authorization)
vi/ etc.
Negatives
i/ I can’t think of any. There are the type of questions on the owner builder exam….wtf do they have with building a better house?
An owner-builder can apply to the Court, the Registrar or the Gold Commissioner to remove a lien if it can be shown that:
a. The claim lien has been satisfied.
b. With a certificate from BC Housing.
c. The lien was filed correctly.
d. An action to enforce the claim is still in progress.
Provincial employees just got an email about consolidating office space to ensure it aligns with the ‘hybrid workplace model’ – ie reducing real estate footprint. @VicREanalyst, i know you had said that the Province will be announcing back to work this year but it sure doesn’t seem like it. Seems like WFH may be here to stay.
Myself I think the U.S would be in worse shape than us imo. Canada can still trade with the rest of the world
Let me guess, lack of prior work experience and co-op terms.
For the most part I’m guessing the islands economy is real estate and tourism . But yes the effects will be more pronounced elsewhere, but the lower for longer interest rates will sure help to keep the tills ringing
Thursty, Victoria won’t be directly impacted by Trump because we don’t manufacture much of anything. That doesn’t mean we won’t be indirectly affected by corporate cut backs in Vancouver and Toronto.
Victoria is a short trip from Vancouver. If a company is looking towards right sizing it can close up shop in Victoria and service the island from Vancouver. Distant work places are more prevalent today but it also a lot easier to let someone go – just by hitting delete.
Groot, Vic is a good place to be right now and will pretty much remain untouched by trumps b. s . I can definitely see Canadians talk themselves into a recession unfortunately and that would be our greatest threat to the economy.
Thanks Kristen. I’m grateful he is in a field that he can flip to industry and get paid way more, but highest and best use of his aptitudes and inclinations is clearly in a university lab at this point. Cut this cohort out or make research an unattractive option and you inhibit progress that has led to breakthroughs with major clinical, commercial, and business opportunities. And improved our lives. Grad students in STEM in Canada are getting tuition covered plus 40k Can a year at best and 50k US at best in the top US universities. Enough to live, but the real incentive is the research collaborations and the future opportunities – which are now in decline.
I do agree that incentives for efficiency are needed, big fan of this, and I would support some of these in our government too, but has to be a better way.
My friend’s son graduated last June with an economics degree. He has not been able to find any work in his field. I know he had high marks, don’t know if hiring practices are eliminating him due to him not being diversified. He should have become an electrician, he’d be making 6 figures by now.
Hey Totoro, oi vey and agreed on all accounts. What an insane thing to take aim at STEM research of all things. Talk about aiming the shotgun carefully at the foot. Best of luck to your kid!
Sounds like an “Insider” lol
I have a kid choosing between an ivy league us university and a Canadian one for their stem phd right now. Usually the US would be the clear winner. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty as to how far the cuts will go and what the knock-on effects will be. Some of my kid’s friends have already had their phd offers rescinded due to cuts. I also have a friend who is a prof in California with a phd from a top us University in a stem discipline: she is looking for jobs elsewhere. Going to be a lot more competition for non-US research and teaching positions I’d think. And science will not progress as it has.
Argentina is an amazing country to visit and also a cautionary tale for Canada. Abundant natural resources and an educated populace. Once one of the more prosperous countries in the world. Thrown it all away with corruption and bad government. Unlike the US, there is no question that drastic change is need in Argentina. The only question is whether Milei has the right prescription.
If the administrators are the ones deciding how to apply the funding cuts, then this is an unsurprising result
ministries are likely going to see their budgets for contracting/outsourcing of professional services slashed next year. I expect that to be at least as impactful on employment as the freeze (which is more like a deep chill than a total freeze when you read the fine print)
In other employment news my school age son was able to land pretty decent employment (his first ) after a 15 minute interview.
I’m guessing that our lower unemployment rate may be due to some extent to the number of purpose built rentals being built. Greater Victoria isn’t a major area in Canada but being the capital it may be receiving a disproportionate amount of funding for PBRs relative to population.
Totoro: absolutely agreed. So far I am only aware of negative impacts on junior scientists (example: incoming PhD students having their offers rescinded at Vanderbilt, Pitt) rather than on administrative bloat, which was presumably the intended target. That being said American research universities also bear some responsibility for choosing to apply cuts in overhead to academic departments, despite having used overhead in the past to fund non-research activities on the sly. (Indirect costs here in Canada run around 20-25% instead of ~60% as they do in the States despite having similar research profiles.)
Really hard on some of the best and brightest scientists, phd students and post docs in the US right now. Blanket cuts seem counterproductive and bad for the future of science. They affect Canadian research too. Seems just plain dumb to cut groundbreaking research in stem fields. I can’t think of a more efficient way to advance science than the graduate lab environment. Students and post docs are highly motivated with minimal pay.
I’ve been watching Argentina as well as I have shifted away from the USA and Mexico to South America. At one time Argentina was on its way to being a world super power.
The similarities with Argentina’s regime and the Trump administration is remarkable.
The people of Argentina voted to accept hardship for a stable currency and possibly dollarization of their economy to attract business to Argentina. Javier ran on the platform that things have to get worse before they can get better. And for low and middle income households things have gotten a lot worse. How long they will accept their lot in life before ousting Javier is still to be seen.
What jobs??
Nightmare.
More Victoria homes face sewage backups after relining of Victoria pipes
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/more-victoria-homes-face-sewage-backups-after-relining-of-victoria-pipes-10281408
Average age of population (2021 census) in Victoria is 44.8 years.
That’s identical to the average age in Nanaimo.
So age doesn’t explain why Victoria unemployment rate is 3% and Nanaimo is 7%.
Average age in BC is 43 and in Canada is 42. Not a huge difference.
What is the correlation between unemployment rate and number of retirees in a city? Victoria’s low rate might be low due to the higher number of retirees in the city. Cities with a lower percentage of retirees would have a younger population actively looking for work.
Yes, Victoria has 3% unemployment – lowest in Canada.
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That’s a level so low that it’s well below the 4-5% level considered “full employment”. Below that level it is considered that the local jobs economy is overheating and under wage pressure leading to inflation. And entry level jobs are easy to find.
Nearby BC cities are not faring so well, with much higher unemployment . Nanaimo is 7% (more than double). Vancouver 6.3% (with higher rental costs).
With the thousands of new rentals we are building, I expect them to fill up quickly, including more people moving from here from Vancouver etc. to find jobs. In the case of Vancouverites moving here, they may find not only a job, but cheaper rent.
I doubt anyone will be taking a chainsaw to our government positions given the strong unions protecting them.