Victoria growth more dependent on immigration, but that will change
Last year the federal government panicked about the negative public reaction to extraordinary population growth in Canada in the last couple years. Beyond slashing the number of temporary residents (mostly international students and temporary workers), they also cut the permanent immigration targets by 20% with further cuts planned in 2026 and 2027. I wrote about that last year and all the cuts combined would result in a slight national population decline this year and next, which as far as I know has never before happened in Canada.
Those are just targets, and early indications are that they’re already missing them, but still it’s probably one of the biggest macro factors that will impact our market this year and next. Whoever our new government ends up being this year, it seems there’s a consensus that immigration levels will be cut fairly dramatically. We’ve already talked extensively about the impact on the rental market, but there’s new data out on population growth in Victoria, and I thought I’d take another look from the perspective of the for-sale market.
With 2024 data out now, Victoria’s growth looks like this:
It’s pretty clear that growth in the last 2-3 years, while still high, has been quite different from how Victoria used to grow, and that has implications on what kind of housing is in demand. Fundamentally the components of growth are:
- Natural Growth: This has been negative in Victoria for years, but it’s been getting more and more negative in recent years, with over 1000 more deaths than births for the last 3 years. That’s unlikely to change anytime soon, and in fact when I modelled the future death rate, I estimate it would double from the current ~4000 deaths a year to about 8000/year by 2040. Births today have limited impact on the market, but would be potential renters in 20 years and owners even further into the future. On the other side – and not to be too morbid – deaths essentially lead to more turnover of the housing stock and can help the listing side.
- Migration from other Canadian cities. We’ve seen migration from other cities pick up substantially since about 2015, and I’ve written about it quite a bit. Victoria remains a very attractive destination for Canadians, so there’s no shortage of people wanting to move here, but they also need to be able to afford it. Fundamentally two things are necessary for high migration to Victoria: prices in source cities to be high enough to make it attractive to move, and the market to be active enough there so people can sell and move. That’s the part that’s been missing in the last two years, and we’ve seen a drop in the number of people moving here from other Canadian cities. With some recovery in market activity due to lower rates, I actually think this number is likely to bounce back a bit this year and next. Many of those movers will be buyers, so despite an expected drop in total growth rate, we may actually end up with an increase in out of town buyers.
- Permanent immigration. This wasn’t really a big factor in Victoria’s growth up until the last few years. When the national targets were dramatically increased, we also saw a surge of growth from immigrants to Victoria. With national targets dropping dramatically going forward, this should also cut growth in Victoria this year and next. However I would note that when it comes to the for-sale market, those that immigrated in the past several years are going to be much more likely to be buyers now, and that group is larger than it has been in the past in Victoria. A drop in immigration rates this year won’t really be felt in the resale market until a few years from now (when they’re more likely to buy property).
- Temporary residents. Again temporary residents were barely a factor in our growth up until the last few years, and with an expected net outflow of non-permanent residents in 2025, it should drop back to near zero or even negative. The extent to which we actually see an outflow likely depends somewhat on the local unemployment rate. So far it has remained very low while the rest of Canada has weakened, and that strengthens the argument for employers to continue hiring TFWs. If the unemployment rate rises, that becomes more difficult to justify and in fact if the unemployment rate hits 6% becomes nearly impossible for the low-wage stream under new restrictions. Temporary residents almost exclusively rent, so any changes would have no direct impact on the resale market (indirectly less rental demand reduces the case for investors to buy property).
Overall, in the last two years, StatsCan says we gained some 15,000 residents, and over 14,000 of them came from permanent or temporary immigration. That’s very different than our pre-covid 10 year average, when only 27% of growth came from immigration or temporary residents. If the feds actually follow through on their plans, this year and next will look very different from a growth perspective. I expect our growth rate to be roughly cut in half, to well under 1%. However from the perspective of how many buyers there are, we may not actually notice right away.
Also the weekly market activity:
| February 2025 |
Feb
2025
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 136 | 272 | 470 | ||
| New Listings | 308 | 605 | 1088 | ||
| Active Listings | 2408 | 2487 | 2364 | ||
| Sales to New Listings | 44% | 45% | 43% | ||
| Sales YoY Change | +24% | +17% | +2% | ||
| New Lists YoY Change | +8% | +7% | +34% | ||
| Inventory YoY Change | +10% | +10% | +31% | ||
| Months of Inventory | 5.0 | ||||
No great change last week, with both new lists and sales ahead of where they were this time last year and market balance pretty similar. There’s more sales now, but it also feels like the surge of activity we saw in the last 4-5 months could be running out of steam. Rates didn’t drop further, and economic uncertainty is increasing. We’ll see if we keep seeing big positive year over year numbers or if the market will fall back to where it was last year (slow-ish, but not breaking any records either).
This time last year we started to see that we wouldn’t get a stronger spring like we saw in 2023, with the sales to new list ratio just staying pretty flat as new lists climbed along with sales. Will be interesting to see which way this year goes.
Last week I mentioned the potential impact on sales mix from CMHC upping their price cap from $1M to $1.5M. If you remember, this is a policy that introduced a hard limit into the market, where buyers paying just under a million needed only $75k down on an insured loan, but going just above required 20% or an extra $125,000. That eliminated a fair number of buyers, and I’ve shown repeatedly that it caused a distinct soft spot in the market at just above a million dollars. Note the chart below is from sales last year before the change.
So did upping the cap solve this market distortion? It’s still a little early to say for sure since we haven’t had a huge volume of sales after the change, but it seems the answer is yes. Where previously the price range just above a million was the weakest category with a big gap in sales, in January and February it had the most sales, and there’s no overall no more sign of weakness above a million.
Some have reacted negatively to this change but I think it was a good move. Having the $1M cap has been a serious distortion in the market for years now, and that’s a sign of bad policy. I don’t see that CMHC is exposed to any particular risk with the bigger cap given they charge pretty hefty premiums to access it.
Now, is it a good idea to buy a $1.1M property if you can’t come up with 20% down? It’s outside of my personal risk tolerance, but I can see that in some situations it could make sense (and clearly buyers have taken advantage of being able to stretch a little further in Victoria). I’ll leave it up to the individual buyers to make that call.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/02/24/chainsaws/
What a shameless use of statistics.
Thursty – BC is pretty big – if you want Victoria specific, the VREB posts their numbers every month- for January they wrote: “The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in January 2024 was $1,252,200. The benchmark value for the same home in January 2025 increased by 2.8 per cent to $1,287,200, down from December’s value of $1,306,400. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in January 2024 was $551,900 while the benchmark value for the same condominium in January 2025 decreased by 0.7 per cent to $548,100, up from the December value of $547,800.”
Month Feb Feb
Year 2025 2024
New Unconditional Sales 401 470
New Listings 868 1,088
Active Listings 2,544 2,364
Looks like we will finish the month at 530 +/-
Bcrea reporting prices up 5 points year over year in January. I’m guessing with higher sales , prices are starting to push up . This is great news for Victoria’s economy , let’s keep up the good news
I agree
Been going there every winter since I got married. Can’t beat it anywhere else in the world given the the travel time from here.
Yes, crypto is essential to their business, but our currency is in effect virtual. The banks don’t have the cash on hand if we all ran for the exits at once.
They are also heavily into cryptocurrencies due to its pseudonymous nature and ease of cross-border transactions.
Drug dealers have to put their money into something. Property, businesses, cars, whatever. Especially in countries that change their currency every so often to deter the hoarding of cash as it eventually becomes worthless.
Just a rumour Frank, much like our Casinos are in partnership with motorcycle gangs.
That’s what I’ve heard, the cartels keep their resorts protected while they launder their billions of drug profits into legitimate businesses. Not sure I’d want to support that sort of business. Having said that, drug money has supported real estate in this country.
Money laundering in Canada, including activities linked to criminal organizations, has been a significant concern. Canada’s lax penalties and regulations have allowed financial crime to flourish, making it easier for criminal organizations to operate.
Perhaps the recent change of Cartels and street gangs being considered terrorists in Canada might have an effect. It may also lead to more violent confrontations with the police.
Never said that that those that are not legally able to leave the Country are driving the real estate market in Victoria. Just that it is an option for the those that can’t leave the country due to a past transgression can enjoy a warm although slightly wet winter home.
For example, I worked for a person that was an American draft dodger. And one time he couldn’t return to the USA without the chance of being arrested. That didn’t make him a criminal or a “dirt bag”.
I’ve heard positive things about Mexico, the people are very nice, great weather, good cheap food, etc. However is has devolved into a narco-state. Rumor has it that the cartels own most of the resorts. What used to be popular tourist spots are now avoided. I’ll pass on the Mexico experience.
I believe Victoria has already covered the market on dirt bags that can’t meet the legal threshold of obtaining a passport. Not sure they are really the cohort that drives real estate demand unless the thinking is the city and province will be funnelling more money to hire even more $150k+ waged staff at so called “non-profits” to support those people as they rob businesses and assault people on the streets of our downtown.
Hawaii is still paradise. And not a hard sell for Canadians in the winter.
I would think Mexico rather than the USA for Snowbirds. For those Canadians or illegals that can’t obtain a passport, Victoria is still an option for the Winter.
Recent anti-American sentiment will have a positive effect on the Island’s real estate market. Boomers are all over 60 now and more are retiring every year. Yes, some are dying usually leaving behind a spouse. Snowbirds are having second thoughts on holding onto their winter retreats. They can sell their primary residence and U.S. property to afford a nice condo on the Island. Marko would have more insight on this matter.
I viewed that unit and that’s a pretty good price for that unit, over $1,100 per square foot with GST for north orientation into the rooftop of tower I.
Penthouse sale for 1.3 but they originally started at 1.8….
As always nice to hear sales are strong and folks are tuning out the noise and getting deals done . A busy market is contagious
Some incredibly strong sales in the last 24 hrs….house in Saxe Point for $1,385,000 and house on the Gorge at $1,350,000 – $80k over ask.
Inventory at Dockside by Bosa has also started to move – four sales last week.
Last 24 hrs is showing 42 pending sales – highest we’ve seen this year.
Had my BC Assessment hearing yesterday afternoon. I asked for a $764,000 reduction and ended up receiving a $364,000 reduction in the end. The BC Assessment appraiser emailed me the three comparables he was going to argue (for keeping the assessment as is) ahead of time so I was able to prepare well in terms of countering those in-front of the panel. Can’t say I am super happy with the end result as I would sell the property at $764,000 off assessment, but none the less the process was well organized and the panel asked informed questions of both I and the appraiser before they broke off to their private group to make a decision. The appraiser and I chatted for 15 min while we waited for them to come back with their decision, really nice guy we talked about how blanket rezoning multiplex rezoning was impacting their assessment mods, etc. Still disagree with his comparables on my property, but such is life 🙂
Ya although trump has been yapping at other countries around the world , so far it’s the American people he’s being ruthless too. I’m starting to feel sorry for average putz down there
It’s almost like instead of paying these people their salaries the us government/doge is just redirecting that money to pay the lawyers for the never ending lawsuits arising from these bizarre and offensive firings. Hmm I wonder who owns those law firms…. And certain people will have to fight because to not fight means to agree and the fight means the chance at being reinstated when this is all over which might be the best bet financially given that finding jobs with those salaries cannot be easy. I mean personally I’d probably just spend one of 5 days a week applying for a new job and the rest of the time would be plotting to get my job back and legal offensive.
It’s so dumb that they’re waging economic war on their own people. This is what happens when people who are extremely good at making money myopically focus on efficiency when given way too much power. Wait 6 months from now what a shit show.
Isn’t it an old Arab proverb, “may you live in interesting times” or something like that? well, we had decades of peace and quiet in our little corner of the world. Now we’ll see I guess.
Fair enough comment Peter.
I like the way you answered.
Lot’s to think about.
I’m sorry, but I don’t think it’s realistic to equate Mark Carney in any way with voting for Hitler, even if you didn’t mean it that directly, Deryk.
The mideast quagmire, complete with the Arab atrocities against Jews and the Jewish retribution amounting to genocide, in my view just won’t end up a useful litmus test for Carney. I mean, ok say he comes out and says yes of course it was a genocide, then what is actionable, pulling all support from Israel and letting Hamas supporters hold parades in our streets in Canada while Hamas itself parades hostages including dead children?
I just don’t see anything useful coming out of holding this up as the litmus test, personally.
I’m not pro-Carney, FWIW
I do agree with your comments about Victoria RE coming out ok one way or another.
I could but I won’t~!!
But in all seriousness – whatever the missing $ is (and give your head a shake, do you know how many billions were immediately unaccountably lost in the Iraq war alone, where the US was literally airlifting dollars by the pallet for various ‘payments’), there’s no justification for idiotically calling Zelensky a “dictator” who “should never have started the war”. Those are the insults I’m talking about. And more fundamentally, this “critical minerals deal” that’s now morphing into the US trying to bamboozle an out-of-options Ukraine into giving up 50% of much of their future prosperity. It’s disgusting.
Yesterday, they got rid of the Chief of Staff because he’s black and oh-who-knows-if-maybe-he-was-a-diversity-hire-better-just-get-rid-of-him witchhunt.
There’s no honour in any of this.
I actually like Mark Carney and would like to vote for him.
My problem is though that neither he nor the Liberal Party of Canada refuse to answer my question: Do they think that Genocide took place in Gaza. Yes or No?
They refuse to answer and yet this would tell me a lot about them as human beings.
I will not vote for anyone who thinks that Genocide has not been committed in Gaza.
One is tempted to hold one’s nose and vote for him anyway. But that would be like voting for Hitler because he has a really, really nice mustache ……… even though he is gassing the Jews.
I also think PP is not electable.
The west coast of Canada will always be a prized place to live because of it’s outstanding beauty, it’s ports, it’s mineral wealth, Lots of water and it’s clean energy, which is the envy of the world.
Victoria real estate will do well, long term, no matter what. No matter who owns us.
I’m a realist.
You lowering your prices? If the price is right I might have some work for ya!
Mark Carney and the entire left wing of society is dissolving right before your very eyes.
Embrace it.
Greg martel investor list is out. A group of investors collectively owe 68 million to the remaining investors. Good luck
Trade: China-Russia imports and exports reached a record high of $237 billion in 2024. The total two-way trade value between the two countries amounted to $244.8 billion in 2024, up from $240.1 billion in 2023.
https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-relations-january-2025
Yay…We’ll have a little nuke party. Whatever country has the most survivors wins! If you do manage to survive, It will taste very metallic for quite some time.
If I were in the position of lending another country $175 billion USD in good faith, I would want know where the 100 billion USD of the missing money went before I released anymore funds to that country. In fact I would also demand full repayment of the $175 billion USD in the form of rare earth minerals, natural resources, cold hard cash…Or I would not even invite him to the table for discussion.
Where did the missing $100 billion USD go Peter? Are you in on it? Can you give us some insider tips?
The U.S economy is starting to wobble under trump already . We will be just fine as long as Canadians keep on spending , now get those wallets out !
Patrick , yep developers don’t build if there’s no demand . I would harbour to guess if u have a joy for building stuff I’m sure u could find a property in town that’s ready to go
Lol
There seems to be quite a bit of vacant Downtown office space available as the government has opted not to renew over 60,000 square feet. That puts the downtown office vacancy rate close to 9 percent.
Europe needs to take the hint, step up for their own defense and tell the Americans to GTFO of Europe and go home. Britain and France have nukes and the population and industrial might of Europe dwarfs Russia. There’s no need for Europe to be stuck with a threatening, unreliable, and potentially treacherous defense and trade partner.
Canada is a different story, we are going to have to continue to accommodate to US for the foreseeable future while doing everything we can to maintain some independence.
Enablers yes, but also much more focused on project 2025 and much more willing and able to pull the levers of power & let the Courts whittle away at it later when a lot has already been done. We may not like it, but I think this Trump presidency is going to be much more consequential than the first one. Putting our Canadian issues to one side for a moment, the US policy messaging to Europe, NATO and the Ukraine in just a matter of weeks has been pretty fundamental, for example. And I’m no Trump fan, but I do see some sense in shaking Europe out of its torpor and telling them to step up way more on their own defense. OTOH, the insults to Zelensky and embracing of Russian talking points have been disgusting.
One way or another, this is going to be a consequential 4 years – or longer. We just have to figure out, collectively as a country, and individually in terms of financial security, how we are going to best survive this & thrive in it.
I agree that we should be doing the obvious things like diversifying trade partners and reducing interprovincial trade barriers. I also think we need to step up using our resource strengths, and though I didn’t vote NDP, I’ve been quietly impressed with at least what Eby has been saying since the SHTF. And of course we need to be stepping up on defense and shouldering a fair share of the burden (focused more on our northern border, in my view).
But even with us doing all those obvious things, I think one way or another we will find that we are still going to be inextricably tied to the US, anything else is a pipe dream. So we have to figure out how to live with them.
The main stated purpose of government lowering population growth is supposed to make homes more affordable, but it may kill new supply from development so much that actually makes homes less affordable.
For example….we have dreadfully low number of housing starts for Greater Victoria in month of January.
January numbers for last 5 years (CMHC)
105 in 2025 <<<—- down 42% from last year, and less than half of previous 5-year average.
182 in 2024;
463 in 2023;
286 in 2022;
216 in 2021.
Multiple reasons that developers are deciding not to build. Of course the muni costs/delays are a factor. But also other reasons – higher costs, interest rates, and expected lower population growth reducing demand. Of all those factors affecting developer decisions, the main “new” one in 2025 is “lower population growth” . Of course the numbers above are just from one month, but we’ve already seen 16% drop in 2024 vs 2023 G.Victoria housing starts. And now we have a stinker low number of starts for January.
Many HHVers are expecting lower population growth to mean lower home prices. But if developers stop building because population is flat, we may end up with higher home prices as there is reduced new supply available to purchase. That potential outcome may seem obvious, but it isn’t mentioned in this week’s HHV article.
Victoria tweaks bylaw for demolition debris after vastly missing targets
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/victoria-tweaks-bylaw-for-demolition-debris-after-vastly-missing-targets-10265107
Trump (or should I say King Elon) is shutting down the NHL and firing everyone.
The important Canada / USA issue is once again settled.
Canada just beat USA in overtime in 4 nations hockey final. Goal scored by world’s best current hockey player – Connor McDavid.
All is now well with Canada USA relations 🙂
Vicre , I am the mindset that if a home has had enough exposure the market will figure out the selling price . I have always done the deal and moved on . I have very little exposure to residential real estate and have been winding down tenant rentals for a while now
https://www.timescolonist.com/business/as-trump-flags-timber-tariffs-soon-bc-minister-says-impact-would-be-devastating-10259722
Does that mean you are flexible taking a lower price? I would just call Marko and get a mere listing going before everyone and their dog starts listing this spring. I’ve heard from my realtor contacts that they are getting lots of listing presentation requests etc.
Vicre , I’m going later and reasons being . Mark Carney will be in power , maybe another interest rate cut and trump will start to get boring with all his threats . I have a house that pushes alot of buttons , and im not hung up on price so I should be okay
Might want to list now and get ahead of the pack before spring?
Vicre, too busy work wise to put much energy in what’s happening out there . I do have a house I’m wanting to list and the market is steady with not many sales that stand out
I see that in Broadmead 4373 Wildflower Lane just sold for 1.9, that’s with $450k of price drops in almost a year. Seems to be decent value there, with another 100k in renos that would be a nice house in a upscale neighborhood with views.
I thought you did with all the open houses you go to etc. Just wondering if you seen any in Oak Bay that went for a strong price recently?
Vicre, I really don’t watch the market that close but the stats show a good steady market so I’m good with that. Canada’s economy similar to the U.S are for the most part service based economy’s, so consumer spending really is the only thing that matters . So no I’m not worried at the slightest how Canada will fair in a tariff environment but then again trump is full of it and is just playing everybody
The U.S has problems and so did Rome.
Rome withdrew from its peripheral imperial provinces to concentrate on its core, when distant wars drained too many resources at the centre, and its army was being outmatched in the Field. Rome would never openly admit to the retreat, and neither does the USA
The U.S has problems , high interest rates with no relief in sight ,inflation that looks to be picking up , and the stock market is starting to wobble , all of which is not a good time to bring in any tariffs
They can and Canada has admitted to that. How are the house sales going in Oak Bay Thursty? Any strong sales to point out?
Deryk, you’re dreaming of u think that the U.S can destroy Canadas economy. We did well before free trade and we will do u well without them
Somewhere along the time-line international law was replaced by the term rules based international order.
Canada jumped onboard not understanding who was writing the rules; now we don’t like the new rules and are left waving flags and, maybe, wishing we had stood by the rules of international law.
Once a vassal state, always a vassal state:
The heart of each of Canada’s new warships is the command management system, which controls weapons, radars and other intelligence-gathering equipment. Originally supposed to be Canadian-made and under the full control of the Canadian government, it was switched for U.S. technology called Aegis, allowing the Americans to hold this country hostage over future upgrades or even the provision of spare parts.
Retired Vice-Admiral Mark Norman took to social media Feb. 14 to denounce the move as a “real and serious risk.”
I believe that Canada would be much further ahead and better protected by building a country that respects international law and builds fair trade.
Do we achieve that by spending our hard earned money on obsolete high tech weapons that are out of date before we even get them delivered?
Canada thought it was just dandy to join forces with America and Europe to try and crush the economies of Russia and China and and we have ignored international law repeatedly. (Libya, Iraq in the first gulf war, and the sanctions on Iraq during the second Iraq war, etc) We have supported America’s world domination in the uni polar world.
We voted at the UN in support of the US even when it was clear that human rights were being violated or when genocide was being committed. We threw international law out the window.
Now America has it’s eyes on destroying Canada’s economy. We thought it was ok when it was someone else.
Now it is our turn.
They will not need missiles to do it. Just destroy our economy….and lots of Canadians will change their view. (Sad but true)
America is Canada’s biggest threat. How will new fighter jets and tanks help us?
We need to put all our resources into increasing trade with the world and not be so dependent on America.
It’s a little encouraging to hear that Canada is doing that. (Making long term oil deals with China and India.)
This will effect our economy and thus………real estate.
Risky comment here tied to the blog topic. Note the negatives of actual growth and growth from within Canada. I believe that previous blog entries observed that immigrating to Vic of people over 65 was far less than assumed. Also, within the last three of four years the problem of doctor shortages throughout Canada has become much more widely recognized. I have a very small social circle, but I am aware of two couples who have moved to the Vancouver area due to medical supplier issues here and two couples who are still here but have family physicians outside(Kamloops and Vancouver) and one was told by reps at the Registry that they were unlikely to be assigned to a new doctor since they already had a doctor. BC has also made it almost impossible to obtain medical services(MRI erc.) for low prices or at all. In Vancouver area a quick drive to Bellingham and a relative low cost service is available. I have felt for sometime that this fear of older people of not being able to find a family doctor or private medical services would soon dramatically influence Victoria housing demand–especially since these older immigrants typically came with larger financial resources and often could pay cash for detached residences. If I was was over 65 and had an established physician network, I certainly would be hesitant to move.
Canada is a peaceful nation so of course we don’t prioritize military spending. I wonder how much North Korea spends on defence. That being said this whole experience with an unstable leader in the US highlights that maybe we need to spend more on defence for our own reasons.
Max – your efficiency amazes me. You always manage to pack so much wrongness into so few words.
1) There is no minimum defense spending in the North Atlantic Treaty, just a target agreed on by members
2) The U.S. does not “pay” 3.38% to NATO, that’s how much they spend on defense
3) Canada also does not pay %1.37 to NATO, that’s our defense spending
4) All NATO members do pay a relatively small amount directly to NATO to maintain the bureaucracy of the organization
From Article 1 of NATO “……… and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”
From Article 2 of NATO “…….. They will seek to eliminate conflict in their international economic policies and will encourage economic collaboration between any or all of them.”
Who is violating NATO here?
I honestly don’t understand what trump is doing. He’s firing the nations security people too? Looking at it simply – just seems stupid and risky. However maybe I’m wrong and everything will work out! For those who think all there will be little or no big impact on the economy from all the people who have suddenly lost their jobs — I also don’t understand that thinking. A lot of them made good salary and could put that money back into the economy. Are they all going to get similar paying jobs? Seems to me like there will be big big problems south of the border 6 months from now. But what do I know? In other news Canada is getting its first high speed rail! That’s very exciting. I wish we could have an lrt up the patty bay highway. Down to one lane in either direction and train in the middle all the way to uptown hub. That would be nice.
Max, just move to the States please, your lack of Canadian values are exhausting. Can we get back to housing too please.
We can’t even afford a social credit system. We are within the upper third of the highest-taxed countries in the world. Where do all our tax dollars go? We can only afford 1.37% to NATO. The minimum is 2% of GDP. The United States pays 3.38%. We are surrounded by three oceans and don’t even have any form of national defence. If it weren’t for Alaska and the contiguous United States south of the border we would be ripe for the picking!
“Canada, by this definition, is not a socialist country, it is a social democracy. A social democracy is a blend of capitalism and socialism. The Trudeau government’s approach to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction personifies this brand of socialism. The idea of a carbon tax is to add the hidden costs (imposed on third parties and society more broadly) from the emission of GHGs to the cost of emitting”.
This is true. Anytime you take an oath of allegiance to a constitution, then ignore or attempt to eliminate the constitutionally enshrined authority of the legislative and executive branches, while sabotaging alliances with democratic allies in favour of war mongering dictators for the purpose of extorting billions in rare minerals and other natural resources, there are bound to be a few bumps in the road.
Yes I do. There is always short-term pain in transitionary periods. Especially with the slop the Biden administration left behind.
Hater…Now he has tears rolling down his face!
https://www.mapleridgenews.com/news/trudeau-cries-as-haida-celebrate-landmark-aboriginal-title-deal-7827484
I remember when Harper sent an armoured limo to India. That alone cost 800 quadrillion dollars.
Seriously Frank? Do you even understand what the number “billion” means? You can find all his travel expenses published online. You’re off by factors of 100.
Trudeau has cost Canadians through bad policy and bad governance not through any “lavish lifestyle”
Thursty I agree. the one one thing different this time around is that he is surrounded by enablers rather than semi-competent people that were part of his first administration
Justin Trudeau gets paid around 400k. He spends billions of taxpayer’s money on his lavish lifestyle. Did he really have to go to the Aga Khan’s funeral? I would have passed. Employees require space, and other support systems, they cost the taxpayer a lot more than their salaries.
The job cuts south of the border are not “in a big way”. Total civilian payroll is only a few percent of federal spending. The big ticket items are the military, entitlement programs and debt servicing.
Note that the big ticket entitlement programs go primarily to Republican voters.
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/
It’s always a good time to buy.
https://youtube.com/shorts/lqxWH1VXopU?si=Q6wit77ehGez5LPf
Caveat, agree , 4 years is a long time to sit on the sidelines while trump blows smoke up eveyones butt . He has a history of saying lots and doing nothing . I would bet a lot of folks can’t even remember his first go around , he pretty much did squat
I remember I had a client buy a SFH in the Oaklands area for $495k with a two bedroom suite in 2011 and the blog was all doom and gloom even thought for my client (a single parent) at that time on a cash flow basis it was cheaper than the condo she was renting on Bay Street.
Back then it was building lots will fall to 300k in Oak Bay and all the tradespeople will be so desperate for work it will be only another 300k to build that dream home 🙂
If you over-focus on the risks it is never a good time to buy. if you go back in the HHV archives there has ALWAYS been a reason why the market is risky, or a better buying opportunity is coming up. If I recall correctly the original HHV site was founded circa 2007 and filled with doom and gloom. In retrospect that was a fantastic time to buy a SFH in Victoria and they have never been cheaper since.
Sure if you are in a heavily tariff threatened industry then maybe don’t buy right now. Or if you are counting on your public sector salary rocketing upwards to make the numbers work….
Vic Reanalyst asked “Cash Buyer or don’t buy”.
I’m just saying that I would not be taking any risks at this time depending on your own sense of security.
I’ve never taken a big risk in Real estate and that has served our family really well. (From my early days to now)
We are entering a time of so many uncertainty’s.
Talk of Stocks being hit by this summer. Ask yourself…do you think Trump knows what the hell he is doing? I think he is an idiot and this will become apparent in the coming weeks and months.
Gold is doing well as people sit on the sidelines.
Trudeau just announced the construction of a high speed electric train from Quebec to Toronto. Another place for the homeless to sleep.
Good to know, mine is in March
WTF is a jumbo mortgage? is 500k a jumbo mortgage to someone that makes 50k a year? Why do you think bank look at the ratios which surprise suprise are tied to income?? If you feel comfortable about your job then going up to 3.5x hhi on a mortgage balance is no big deal assuming you are not a financial retard when it comes to discretionary spending.
When I was growing up it was common to make fun of the inefficiency of Soviet bureaucracies, now Canada suffers those same inefficiencies.
“New Democrats have hired more than 10,850 new FTEs in six years, swelling the ranks of the core civil service to 45,217 FTEs.”
-Rob Shaw
There’s no security out there , never really has been so anytime is a good time to buy . Or u can sit on your hands , hope the economy and real estate market goes to shite and still not buy , then just another excuse not to pull the trigger lol .
I would argue depends on the property. Condo with huge strata fees versus SFH with a suite where you can always move downstairs and rent the upstairs or stay upstairs and rent spare rooms out at $900/each – two different scenarios if s*** hits the fan like you lose your job.
Over 1 hr on the phone with BC Assessments this morning…..they sent me a notice of hearing for a property assessment appeal and instructions to upload my arguments/documents. To access this system to upload you need a “confidential pin” at the top of the 2025 Notice of Assessment, but I never received the physical NoA.
They can’t give me the pin because in the Land Owner Transparency Registry doesn’t show who the owner is and they can’t figure out who the owner is (I can figure it out using my systems in last than two minutes).
I asked them if I am not the owner, then can you tell me who the owner is – “sorry we don’t have that information.” Okay so you are telling me you work at BC Assessments and can’t figure out the owner to a property, lol.
I asked which address the NoA was mailed to….can’t tell you, that is “confidential.” Then they are like fill out this form -> https://eforms.bcassessment.ca/pin_request.asp
and will get back to you within five business days….hearing in two days 🙂
what was the point of the land owner transparency registry in the first place if government employees don’t even know how to use it. There is so much non-sense bureaucracy it is really suffocating productivity imo.
and they emailed me all the info for the hearing but can’t email me the confidential pin.
Ditto on it being outside my risk tolerance. With the income it takes to make those numbers work I don’t understand why you wouldn’t wait a year or two.
With the current uncertainty in the economy is this really the time to take out a jumbo mortgage using high ratio financing?
What are you suggesting then? Cash buyer or don’t buy?
Is “Income” really a “good buffer”?
I have my doubts.
Income can’t be guaranteed.
Ask that of someone in the States who has just been fired.
I believe, that Canada will be forced to follow the States. (For good or bad.) I believe that governments will be forced to cut in a big way in order to survive the mess that is coming.
Good post! Your weekly chart has Feb 2025 at right instead of 2024. Wondering what if any changes might be seen in the $900,000- $1,000,000 bands. Will there be less sales showing up there because they push higher or does it just filter through the bands more or less reducing all pretty much the same.
Given the brutal February most of the country has endured, I don’t think provincial migration to the Island is going to slow down. An old friend of mine has recently made two trips to Victoria. He’s a semi-retired M.D., one daughter is also an M D., they would be more than welcome and can easily afford Victoria prices. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the move.
If one can limit mortgage balance to less than 3.5x hhi then I think that offers adequate buffer. So in your example it would be a couple with 300k gross income.