Tariff tidbits
It’s still a little hard to tell if the tariff threat is a big bluff or not, but right now the best we know is that tariffs are arriving Feb 1st (I guess they’re working Saturdays). No one knows if that will happen, but given significant and unpredictable moves the Trump administration has made in their first week, it seems prudent to expect some kind of substantial trade action to come at us soon. Like it or not, we’re living next to an administration in chainsaw mode for the next few years and it’s going to get bumpy.
A number of economists have been trying to estimate the impacts of those tariffs, with a lot of good work being done in this area by Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist of the BCREA.
The problem is, when you look at the range of outcomes from that model, they’re all over the place because we simply don’t yet know what’s going to hit us, and how we might hit back. Depending on the level of tariffs, the degree of retaliation, and if inflation is persistent, rates could go up or down, the US exchange rate could remain nearly stable or collapse, and inflation could increase or decrease from current levels.
Meanwhile economist Trevor Tombe from the University of Calgary looked at which regions are most reliant on exports to the US, and to no surprise that’s concentrated in oil and gas extraction, though the manufacturing sectors in Ontario are also exposed. Brendon’s analysis agrees that BC won’t be hit as hard as the rest of Canada, but of course Alberta’s oil pays for a lot of federal services that we all enjoy.
The province estimates the impact to be about equivalent to a normal recession, with real GDP going from a projected increase of 1.9% in 2025 to a decrease of 0.6%, and the same again in 2026. That comes at not the best time, when our existing GDP gains have already been primarily due to population growth instead of productivity improvements.
The reality is, no one knows exactly what the impact will be because a large scale tariff action hasn’t happened since the Nixon administration, and our economies were far less intertwined back then. I can say it’s one of the top worries for resource sector companies in BC right now, and there’s definitively going to be pain if an all-out tariff war develops. While I’m sure the tariffs would be temporary, they’re just leverage for renegotiating trade agreements and that’s unlikely to fall out in our favour.
Overall it’s hard to imagine that it won’t at least hurt consumer confidence which has been stubbornly positive through this whole time of higher rates likely due to our persistently low unemployment rate.
But now public sector workers are on edge with a sweeping review of all programs underway. While I suspect the province will want to use the avoidance of large job losses as leverage for this year’s collective bargaining process, it’s definitely the end of job growth for some time. And while I’ve spoken to a number of companies with big expansion plans in the coming years, it seems those plans depend on continuing to grow their business in the US.
The last few market corrections / plateaus in Victoria were accompanied by a weaker economy which kept prices flat or down for longer. That hasn’t happened yet, and it may be why the market has been stronger earlier than I expected. Perhaps this is the wildcard that will knock us back down to flatter for longer.
Also the weekly market activity:
| January 2025 |
Jan
2025
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 31 | 100 | 188 | 307 | 341 |
| New Listings | 103 | 369 | 663 | 929 | 960 |
| Active Listings | 2114 | 2202 | 2292 | 2347 | 2140 |
| Sales to New Listings | 30% | 27% | 28% | 33% | 36% |
| Sales YoY Change | — | +32% | +20% | +19% | +23% |
| New Lists YoY Change | — | +7% | +21% | +21% | +19% |
| Inventory YoY Change | +1% | +6% | +9% | +11% | +23% |
| Months of Inventory | 6.3 | ||||
Both new lists and sales continue to be up around 20% from this time last year, though when I look at residential resales we seem to be lagging a bit, just matching the pace from a year ago. Overall market conditions are pretty similar to what they were this time last year.
It’s still a little early to tell, but it is possible that the bump in sales we saw last fall was a temporary reaction to lowered rates, and now that rates haven’t fallen further, it’s exhausting itself. Despite drops in the central bank rate, the 5 year bond yield is just half a percent lower now than this time last year, and it has stubbornly refused to drop further since the first decline last August. It seems the bond market is betting that the central bank will soon run out of steam on cuts.
A commenter wondered if new lists would spike this spring, but the reality is we’re already at pretty high levels. If the 20% increase holds to the end of the month, we’ll have more new listings hit the market than any year since 2011.
I think the frustrated sellers chasing peak prices from the last two years have noted the increase in sales activity and are hoping for better results this year. Let’s see if they’re right.
New post: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/02/03/february-steady-market-as-canada-faces-economic-uncertainty
trump seems like the kind of guy who would claim to care for the working man and the military while making fun of them. Oh wait…
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/08/trump-mocked-us-military-troops-losers-whole-life/
And he lied to avoid the draft, what a surprise
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/02/27/trumps-lawyer-no-basis-for-presidents-medical-deferment-from-vietnam/
The fact that half the country voted for him says a lot about their citizens which makes me want to avoid being the 51st state at all cost.
Yes sorry Patrick I was multitasking, I meant earnings, It was at 40x before its recent $30 fall
Apple is trading at 9.7x sales, and has never traded higher than 10X sales (2010-2024) . https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/price-sales
It is trading at 38X earnings. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/pe-ratio
No. Insured rates dropping by 20–25 bps and conventional rates by up to 30 bps. The highest likelihood is that all fixed rates fall before they are forced back up by inflation months from now.
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/02/bond-yields-plunge-to-near-3-year-low-on-u-s-tariffs-paving-the-way-for-fixed-rate-cuts/
National Bank says there are grounds for an “emergency” inter-meeting rate cut.
Note that an emergency action would argue for a larger-than-normal cut of at least 50 bps.
Thursty, I retired from that industry back in 2015. I trade for fun occationaly when I see obvious easy money like todays action, apple trading at $260 and 40x earnings, recent telecom stocks etc.. When your in your 20’s and 30’s you get a kick out of making money short term trading, once you have more than enough and closer to age 50 it doesnt mean as much, although still fun occasionly. Given the last few years of 20-30% rates of returns by holding index etfs not much value to be added trading and I would rather spend my time doing other things, although given the current over valued market there should be more volitility and trading opportunities to amuse me during these snowy days with the children.
Max, that may be a 3 year fixed insured mortgage, best to lock in that rate for as long as you can as most forcasts are for higher rates as the year progress especaiily if trump follows through with tariffs.
Looks like we could see 3.7% 5 year fixed rates by the end of the week.
Friend is trying to expand his suite to add one bedroom just by reconfiguring some interior space. Been waiting on permits from Saanich for a year.
No wonder no one gets permits for anything. Most of this process we should just scrap. Have an inspector come at the end and make sure it’s safe, otherwise let people do whatever in their house
Soooo, Bobby k , your a day trader
There are 63,940 troops in Canada. Put 10,000 troops on the border to keep Trump happy. Throw the balance into the inner cities. Remember the strike force includes American troops working in tandem with Canadian troops on Canadian soil.
I’m looking forward to more trading opportunities from the orange man’s bully plays, he will also try to drive crypto up before it cashes and burns in spectacular fashion as it has no real value and is bankrupt (morally) much like him.
We don’t need troops on the border, we need them in our inner cities. Cleaning the drug dealers off our streets and putting them in northern detention camps.. Hard labor would be imposed if they want to eat. Trying to stop drugs from coming in is a waste of time and resources.
It’s hard to get rid of Tariffs once they are in-place as industries have come to rely on them for protectionism. A better way than ripping the band aid off completely on tariffs would be if the provinces agreed to half them. I think you’ll get better support among the premiers than eliminating them.
” I believe Trump was spooked by the market reaction. Would Trump have backed down if the market reaction was strongly positive?”
-Mike Shedlock
Ronald Reagan’s $1.7 billion war on drugs Act of 1986.
The heightened concern over illicit drug use helped drive political support for Reagan’s hard-line stance on drugs.
Was he an asshole too?
It already seems so long ago that he conquered inflation and ended the war in Ukraine.
I’m no expert but have listened to some podcasts on it the last few days. This one was decent: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/its-the-economy-stupid-with-laura-jones/id1712174560?i=1000686798130 with a rep from the business council of BC.
Also here: https://financialpost.com/news/economy/tariffs-bring-down-canada-interprovincial-trade-barriers
Just a ton of restrictions on what can be sold where and the goods that are accepted in one province not being allowed in others and subject to their own approvals with slightly different requirements. Sounds like an easy move would be for provinces to unilaterally announce that if a product is certified in one province it can be sold in theirs. That would clear a ton of hurdles right away and I don’t think we have a situation right now that one province is approving unsafe things that others want to keep out. The english-speaking provinces at least could agree to this.
Well, it looks like David Eby is going to have to go into hiding. Being the largest distributor of fentanyl in the entire Province. In other news, Doug Ford is currently in process of trying to tape his Star Link contract back together.
Still on the table, JPM wants access to Canada as a Sched 1 bank on their terms.
This morning he seemed to want US banks to have access to Canada. After the phone call to Trudeau, they seemed to have settled on “ A Canadian ‘Fentanyl Czar’; list cartels as terrorists; and a strike force to combat organized crime.”
It must be a super busy day across Canada. Having to restock all those shelves with American beer, wine, and spirits.
Let’s see what trump can squeeze out of Canada . He is a master at the poker table , he should be admired
This will explain what trump is trying to do
https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-ezra-klein-show/dont-believe-him
Besides the lousy immorality of threatening and bullying a neighbour ally and friend, it’s sort of insane that it isn’t even clear what concession Trump is trying to extract. At least it isn’t clear to me! I count half a dozen possibilities in this thread alone other than the “official” ones.
Leo, can you comment more or send a good reference wrt those interprovincial trade barriers? Thanks!
Trump will quickly move on to the next shiny object – we’ll probably see his “tariff theatre” move on to EU and UK.
Can you believe Trump’s only been in office for two weeks?
This is going to be the longest four years in the history of time.
Strategic defaults.
The wet fart has landed.
Oh good we can do this all again next month.
Provinces need to use this time to speedrun dismantling interprovincial trade barriers. Many barriers could be dismantled with the stroke of a pen.
Trump’s irrational, erratic behaviour probably has more Americans convinced to leave the country. 4 years is a long time, 9 years of Trudeau was an eternity. If I knew he was going to be completely inept and would practically destroy this country with his policies, I should have looked elsewhere. (I did know he was inept). Dysfunctional leaders around the world are causing untold misery for their citizens. No wonder people are on the move looking for a better life.
It has been a VERY profitable trading day (see my weekend predictions of trump caving in) so much for the orange man’s great negotiation skills but not a surprise given the fact that he has gone bankrupt at least 5 times.
The only things he’s succeeded at is making enemies of at least half the world and most likely 75% of his own country, in the words of his dumb show he should now be told “your fired”
Totoro, lol
I see the trolls are out in force.
Tariffs on Canada delayed to March 1 after talk between Trudeau and Trump.
Tariff deal details: A Canadian ‘Fentanyl Czar’; list cartels as terrorists; and a strike force to combat organized crime.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/
His press secretary is smoking hot.
But mostly so old…. too old to be comfortable. I dislike expensive discomfort.
I thought you were in favour of Trump? A big fan. Has this changed?
They’re all working on their diets. 70% are overweight. They shouldn’t be standing at the border, they should be walking along it.
Nan, Kentucky is a state with a GDP of 224 billion compared to Canada’s 2.2 trillion. If you hold to the belief that Canada will feel the trade war more than the USA because of Canada’s smaller GDP then you would also have to acknowledge the same for the state of Kentucky.
The state of Kentucky has two senators and six representatives in the U.S. Congress. Seven of the eight are Republicans.
I’m guessing most of them are not too happy with Trump today.
Every single member of the Canadian Armed Forces should be standing on that border right now. Every last one of them, not tomorrow, not next week…Right now! What do they do anyway?
“How many soldiers are in the Canadian Army in 2024?
Canadian Armed Forces to increase its ranks to 86,000. The current authorized strength of the Canadian Forces regular ranks is 71,500, said Department of National Defence spokesman Kened Sadiku. But as of November 15, 2024, the total strength of its regular force was actually at 63,940, he confirmed.Dec 16, 2024”
I don’t understand how some people think this is just about money.
Trump wants Canada. He doesn’t want Mexico. He’s doing his best to keep the Mexicans out. Extending US territory from the 49th Parallel to Alaska and the Artic would be tremendously advantageous to the USA given Canada’s natural resources and especially if he is serious about taking Greenland.
I actually totally agree that Canada can and should help the US on the border, because the side benefit for Canada is better control over what come into Canada (guns, drugs, illegal entry). But the key word is “help. It is and remains their primary responsibility.
@ Groot – The US imports 2x as much booze from Canada as Canada imports from the US. That 90MM will be easily absorbed locally as a result of the tariff and the demand gap may also spur increased investment in the US to produce enough to fill that gap. This is one of the main points of the tariffs in the first place because generally, the US imports way more than it exports across the board.
Canada is full of monopolies and I don’t want more. Being able to buy from the US without tariff keeps those local producers on their toes and prices low. Without the product coming in, expect prices to go up for the same stuff at the same time as you get less choice. See banking, telecom, cheese, etc.
@ Caveat: Let me know where Canada gets telling the US that they are breaking the rules. I am sure it will feel good pointing at the rule book witha smile on your face while GDP drops and unemployment and prices go up instead of actually doing what is in our best interest (see below + productivity, working harder, etc).
A little primer on borders. The US is responsible for controlling what and who comes into the US.
I don’t know about that Nan. Kentucky just lost 90 million dollars in whiskey sales to Canada. While Canadians just switch to a different brand and likely increase sales of Canadian made whiskey. A loss for them and a gain for us.
How about poultry and dairy? During the last trade negotiations Trump pushed hard for concessions in Canada to allow American poultry and dairy into Canada. Well that gain for America has been lost while the Canadian poultry and dairy markets will benefit with increased sales.
Vicre, lots of nice homes available over here in Oak Bay and Uplands
Yep…Blackout Bingo. The USA’s economic extortion of of weak countries knows no bounds.
Mind you, tariffs (sanctions) on strong countries seems to backfire.
Just an FYI, retaliatory tariffs will not impact the US one bit, while will 100% generate additional revenue to blow for the liberals. They know this and picked the strategy they picked because they know Canadians are too stupid to understand we can’t win in a tit for tat battle but will see this hitting back as simply “good” and anytime there is a tax that has any kind of public support from the ill-informed masses, our bankrupt, money printing government jump all over it because they have a spending problem.
The right thing to do was to sort out the border and the drugs. And pay our NATO bill. And fund our own defense. And do all the other shit we don’t do because liberals want to buy votes with that money instead of doing what a responsible country with an important neighbor would do.
Instead we have more taxes and less choice. Great.
That has me humming the chorus of a Tom Russel song:
But if uncle Sam sends the illegals home
Who’s gonna build the wall?
Who’s gonna build your wall boys?
Who’s gonna mow your lawn?
Who’s gonna cook your Mexican food
When your Mexican maid is gone?
Who’s gonna wax the floors tonight
Down at the local mall?
Who’s gonna wash your baby’s face?
Who’s gonna build your wall?
https://youtu.be/LZkAoosVLkA?t=3
Well all the chatter about tariffs doesnt seem to be having much effect on the market. imo, the pandemic was a bigger crises than trump and tariffs
Doesn’t seem like there are many nice houses though
14 year high in new listings for January.
Arrow, “In light of Mexico’s reprieve from border tariffs, I should walk back my comments about border security being an excuse to impose tariffs.” I wouldn’t get too far ahead of this – see how Canada fairs and what it looks like in a month. He may now just be delaying to un-stub his big toes having tripped over his own economy. “Oh, this is going to cost our citizens?”
Last 10 years….
2025 – 2,395
2024 – 2,140
2023 – 1,739
2022 – 744
2021 – 1,321
2020 – 1,958
2019 – 2,057
2018 – 1,491
2017 – 1,517
2016 – 2,471
Don’t expect intellectual consistency from a man who mused on live TV about using bleach to treat CoVID
Nice to see sales picking up , with lower interest rates and getting lower it’s a great time to buy . Snag something on the bottom before prices take a big leap forward ,
That he supports Republicans isn’t a big deal. What’s to hate about him is the conspiracy theorizing and reckless dissemination and promotion of said, the tweaking and leveraging of his social media platform to achieve political ends, and now Nazi saluting.
What the hell? Is this a bingo card?
January numbers
Sales: 422 (up 24% from last January)
New lists: 1172 (up 22%)
Inventory: 2395 (up 12%)
It’s the “Juniper” release.
It’s not the fact that the negotiations are happening its the speed that they are happening which would not have been possible without threat/bluff or whatever you want to call it that DJT initiated.
“I told my friend to give me $100 lol what a rube now I’m $100 richer I win”
LMAO easy to say now with the low Canadian dollar.
The answer to that will take years to play out. It would be naïve to assume there will be no long term negative impact on US interests stemming from Trump’s obsession with punishing his allies.
Funny the obsession with Starbuck’s and McDonalds. Boycotting those would be one of the least effective ways to show displeasure with the US since most of the inputs are local.
Cancelling or deferring travel to the US would be much more effective
In light of Mexico’s reprieve from border tariffs, I should walk back my comments about border security being an excuse to impose tariffs.
Great glad to see the Mexico news was reported.
Mexico has a month to negotiate a crappy deal with trump or else, let’s c what Trudeau is willing to give away . I would say trump is winning this fight , starting to sound like we are already negotiating a new free trade deal .
So the u.s. will end up in a worse position than before he started the threat of the tariff war? Last I checked Mexico is now sending 10k soldiers to the border during negotiations.
Just making it up as he goes…
Trump wants U.S. banks in Canada, he says after speaking with Trudeau
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-tariffs-canada-us-live-updates-february-3/
No paywall: https://archive.ph/UMxSF
Trump already caved to Mexico this morning like the weak man and poor negotiator that he is, next will be Canada.
Thankfully he allowed me to make some nice trades on the open this morning as I was figuring he would cave in.
Will there be tariffs on iPhones? They’re basically made in China.
Sergey Lavrov isn’t boycotting iPhones, let alone an average Canadian. Doubt anyone will be rushing out to replace their iPhone with a Huawei.
like I pointed out in my previous posts, most people.have zero.clue how dependent they are on the u.s. in their daily lives. Posting patriotic rhetoric from their iPhones LMAO.
5 year bond yields this morning at a two year low.
How were open houses this weekend?
Yes, I am sure Trudeau and Singh will put their vested interests in status quo aside and call an election asap so we can have a newly elected government in place to handle this situation versus leaving the country in limbo for months on end. Trump is crazy, but he isn’t completely stupid – he knows he is dealing with a lame duck prime minister here.
After the citizens all line up to get their coffee from Starbucks this morning.
If everyone drove a Tesla we would spend most of our time looking for it in a parking lot. They didn’t changed the basic look of a VW beetle for almost half a century. I’m tired of looking at them, time for a new design.
You seem to have some difficulty with your generalizations. The triplex in Oak Bay is one example of NIMBY behaviour of some people who have a vested interested in status quo. However, people act differently depending on level and type of threat and large social movements can be powerful and as the level of immediate threat increases so does the level of unity.
When there is a national threat, history shows that citizens will rally behind what they deem to be an important national cause. Rapid mobilization via social media, strong emotional response tied to social justice, and a clear, simple action works. It remains to be seen whether our federal government is up to the task of unifying Canadians on this issue. It wouldn’t take much imo.
Once again, in theory I 100% agree, but this yet again isn’t reality. Look at the feedback on the proposed triplex in Oak Bay or the “devil’s work.” Guaranteed that all people in Oak Bay opposed to the triplex and more housing/density would 100% agree with you that there needs to be caring beyond your family, as long as it doesn’t inconvenience their lifestyle one little bit.
I think in theory we agree on a lot of things but there is reality and there is theory. Reality is we are experiencing climate change and in theory we as a society need to act sooner than later to address climate change and in theory I am all for this; however, reality is Putin is selling oil to finance killing people while we are carbon taxing ourselves.
Protesting through consumer choices is the very least we should be doing imo.
In theory I 100% agree, but this just isn’t reality. McDonalds across Victoria tomorrow will be just as busy as any other day. Costco will be packed. Amazon trucks will be everywhere. 6 flights to Las Vegas will take off from Vancouver.
I think a lot of owners are going to be making “different decisions” on the basis of pricing which is going up in most countries with the Jupiter Model Y release. If consumers in Canada could get their hands on a 45k net of rebates Jupiter I have a feeling sales would be very brisk, Elon and all.
That being said, I can’t believe how high the stock price is – I too think they could see a drop in sales. Model S/X dead. Jupiter not really an exciting update with large price increases. Cybertruck not a huge volume product. The market is pricing in growth but I just don’t see it.
And who knows, perhaps by tomorrow there’ll be a deal to avert the tariffs https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/live-updates-us-booze-bans-pick-up-mexico-to-hit-back-americans-could-feel-some-pain-says-trump/
But I’ll bet it’s just the start of the turmoil.
Strange times. Just a few days ago, many people still thought this was all going to be just talk. Now it’s hitting the fan, and the wheels are falling off the bus here already. One person talking about where to get alternative fruit. One guy convinced Trump is about to turn tail and scurry away. One guy still talking about his Tesla. We’re an immature country about to learn some tough lessons unfortunately. We need to figure out how to pull together. Clearly we need an election asap so that we get a government with a strong mandate. And on a personal level, yes do what feels right in terms of ‘buy Canadian’ even if these are small steps – but also take such steps as you need to take to safeguard your investments, if you have the capacity. I’m certainly not selling the US-focused part of our investments notwithstanding the inconsistency inherent in that.
Marko, I think your decision to buy a Telsa WAS entirely reasonable. Especially with the rebates. I was considering it too.
However, you are a Canadian. You need to rethink your position on this now in the light of what we as Canadians are dealing with. Now is not the time to buy another Tesla, even if you could get it for 45k.
Part of the reason that Trump was voted in again is because the US also has a lot of waste and inefficiency and bureaucracy. I believe that many people welcomed the idea that someone would take a business-like and efficient approach to government and get back to basics. For those of us who are self-made this can seem particularly attractive.
However, there is what someone says and what someone does. What is done in the name of efficiency or greatness can take on a life of its own which stops critical thought and allows corruption and partisan politics to be normalized. To the point that allies become enemies just because one person says so – even if the facts don’t back them up. Facts no longer matter.
Protesting through consumer choices is the very least we should be doing imo.
I don’t think your argument that a company that cheated on emissions 10 years and 3 CEOs ago is no different than what Elon is doing today is going to be convincing for most people.
I’m not an Elon hater. Up until last year I was a big fan. I pondered Model Y vs other for a long time and eventually chose something else for practical not political reasons. No doubt he has accomplished huge things with Tesla and SpaceX in the past and advanced both those industries tremendously. It’s sad where he is now compared to how he used to be. I hope at some point he comes back to sanity (zero issue if he wants to support republicans, it’s not about that).
As to whether most people care or will change their buying behaviour, it’s pretty clear browsing EV forums that many people have been turned off Tesla vehicles and buy other EVs now. Tesla is still selling well, but the fact they went from 40%+ annual sales growth to sales dropping last year while the EV market grew by 25% shows something is afoot. Partially a stale product lineup, partially alienated customers most likely. I wouldn’t be surprised if sales drop quite badly this year. You aren’t making different decisions, but quite clearly many people are.
totoro does tend to be the voice of reason here
Well said.
Problem is I find most other EVs the car companies are scammers and their EVs require some sort of service and I don’t want to service my car. I had a small repair on my Tesla at 102,000 km and then at 240,000 km I took it to Tesla on my own accord for them to inspect the brakes/suspension as I just wanted to make sure it was safe to drive and it was – kind of crazy you can drive a car for 138,000 km with no service. Sold it at 272,000 km and I’ve literally done nothing to my Model Y @ 40,000 km. Elon crazy but that beats paying servicing fees and or having an inferior product.
Please no. We’ve overharvested our trees for a long time now and all our mines, with their tailings ponds of toxic waste, are environmental ticking time bombs that taxpayers are on the hook for, to the tune of hundreds of billions.
I like the exhaust crackles and pops from an ICE vehicle, in the end it’s worth the carbon tax for me. I am not opposed to adding one EV to the family garage though.
I’ve just kept driving my 2013 Mazda 3. Reason being is that it turns out the math/environmental concerns favour keeping it vs. buying a new EV when you account for what is required to produce one. I maintain it and it continues to be reliable – if not prestigious. There are lots of other business acceptable options for a realtor than a Tesla that are in your price range.
We probably do need to expand our oil and gas sector options. Maybe that will be an outcome of this tariff war.
Lots of long term solutions being proposed but I suspect that once the 25 percent tariff is lifted most Canadian businesses and consumers will go back to the ways of the past as it is far easier to trade north south than develop new markets on different continents.
Although this ludicrous 25% that Trump pulled out of his arse has started a discussion in Canada. Maybe it will pull provinces together to break down interprovincial barriers such as tolls and tariffs for pipeline access across their provinces.
I don’t think so but why don’t you tell me since you plan on buying Canadian?
If I needed a car today and I could get one again for 45k I would buy one now. As I said, Elon is off the rails and I don’t agree with the majority of what he has to say. For example, I don’t prescribe to his “population decline” alarms and a bunch of other opinions he is peddling these days but what do you do?
Buy a Dieselgate EV?
Buy a Mach-E from Ford and their CEO who only made $20.6 million last year? He must be such a nice guy.
Buy a crap product so I ran out of battery and can’t get to a showing.
and the one local EV I wanted to buy (Meccanica Solo Ev) cancelled their production.
It’s like let’s not drill in Canada because of environmental concerns. That’s awesome, but demand for crude is a global market so Russia will fill the void and not only don’t they care about environmental concerns they also use the funds to kill people.
Pick your poison.
You can do that for me tomorrow at your provincial government job 😉
Again… google broken for you?
I don’t know I only recall ever seeing Crest, Colgate and arm & hammer and the store. Hence the serious question.
…
It is not your Tesla, although it would be if you bought one now.
You are right that Canada has mismanaged its resources and been wasteful in many ways. However, we have also been kind to new immigrants and to refugees. Something you yourself have benefited from. And we have been able to do this because we have a lot of natural resources, a large territory and ideals about the social contract and human rights that other countries do not have the luxury of because we have had more so people have not had to learn to do more with less. It has made us complacent and led to inefficiencies through multiple levels of government – and we have been taken advantage of sometimes.
Hopefully this is a wake up call to be more efficient. To draw people together to a common goal.
A very Eastern European perspective. From that historical lens you are not wrong. However, we are not Eastern Europe and hopefully we escape some of the negatives of a communist turned capitalist society, of genocides against neighbours who are often family and definitely used to be friends, of corruption untrammeled by the rule of law.
As someone with family in Eastern Europe who has been terribly impacted by wars and corruption I understand your viewpoint, but I do not agree that we cannot do better. Of course we need to take care of family first, but not exclusively. Country is also high on that list. Sometimes I fear that we are too far from WW2 to really feel what is at stake when we only think of what is best for us and not for others. It is not either/or – there needs to be caring beyond your family.
Oh oh! Did your search engine stop working?
You’ll have to fill me in on this over beer as your arrive in your Dieselgate EV.
Hey if you ask me I think Canadians should be able to afford a 3% MER instead of having to scrimp and save for some kind of low cost index fund!
As Mike on VV told me, get out of here with your Amish investing strategy.
Is all toothpaste produced in the US?
I agree, but how about we set our targets lower and balance the budget and get everyone a family physician to start.
And I am sure Pierre is going to be different. My point is put your family first as all politicians are the same at the end of the day. I have the unique perspective in I follow politics in two countries and it is all the same crap; in Canada they are just blatantly less corrupt.
The average price of a new vehicle in Canada is over 60k and you picking on me and my “1%er” 45k (after rebates) Tesla 🙂 that I charge for free due to an inept strata.
Who gives a flying fuck what Nato suggests or the UN or the EU…They will not come to the rescue of Canada. We have the largest super power on the planet directly below us, that would immediately annihilate any threats, even with the slightest bleep on the radar screen.
We are trapped, and no one is going to come along and save us.
Incidentally, Norway only established the sovereign wealth fund in 1990. It is not too late for us to start.
Meanwhile Alberta has been pumping immense oil wealth for decades and still swings from huge surpluses to crushing deficits based on market conditions. They have a wealth fund, but the balance is only about 1% of what Norway has, despite similar populations.
Faster permitting is great, but it’s not enough to build long term stability. We also need to capture some of that wealth and use it to build a more secure future for Canada. If we had a $10 trillion sovereign wealth fund right now we’d probably not be nearly as concerned about a trade war.
What kind of toothpaste are all you tariff warriors going to buy? Serious question.
That is just a red herring from the past and … he has resigned.
We need strategy right now. A strategy for our country. It is not about what one person did or about what happened in Croatia.
When neighbours become enemies things can decline quickly to the point of genocide which causes intense personal suffering and inter generational trauma. We are not at this point and that should not be our metric or our point of comparison. It should be the thing to avoid at all costs – the price is too high.
As far as being able to afford a hotel – who cares. It really is not a measure of how well we are doing when we have housing that is not affordable. Our GDP is an issue. Our trade relationships are. Our plan A, Plan B, Plan C had better be lined up and I don’t get the feeling they are.
We need to manage our countries resources wisely so that we create the quality of life that we can all live with. We need to capitalize on our strengths and cover our weaknesses and build up a war chest and not a deficit. I’m sure many others feel the same. Someone or some people with some math skills, expertise and strategic thinking, and business experience needs to get out in front of this.
Hopefully we get some competent leadership and direction at the federal level. It is MIA right now.
Totally agree that we should develop natural resources more aggressively. The same barriers to housing also apply to those projects. Lots of work to do.
53% of all dwellings in Canada are single detached houses
Trucks are the best selling vehicles
80% of households have some kind of pet, most commonly a cat or dog
So the most common household already has a house and a truck and a cat or dog. The situation in Victoria is not representative of Canada, and of course it doesn’t even make sense to say the average city dweller should have a house, just physically not possible.
No doubt it could be better and we should work on that. We’ve generally been worse at leveraging our natural resources than, say Norway, which has turned their oil into massive collective wealth.
You are making the assumption that they are direct substitutes and a family that would have stayed in a large 2 bed 2 bath airbnb in Victoria is now booking a hotel. Probably going somewhere out of country where Airbnbs are allowed.
If we go to Nato’s suggested two-percent for the military that would be an additional 20 billion spent every year on the military. In that case it may be better to establish our own armaments manufacturing rather than buy from America.
The problem with American military equipment is that it is over priced crap.
With absolutely no means of protecting it from an outside attack.
Lol appraiser at it again……
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawINHi5leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHZygAMogW96ab5HMr9PRS4_LEbxxTpvBpYyk_kFlfB4lk8DdrCjlW9Ya4Q_aem_eMhNylp00g5ba8iNZZN4Ag
and healthcare is crap on top of that. Not sure how that is possible.
No doubt there will be tons of misinformation over the next few weeks, I hope that the feds can keep Canadians well informed as to what goods will be subject to tariffs on a regular basis. The more information we have from reliable sources the better we will be able to muddle our way through this situation.
Unlike the USA, Canada will be targeting specific goods to maximize the impact on red states. That doesn’t mean that all of the goods coming into Canada will have a 25% tariff. There still will be Gremlins but not at all like what the Americans are going to have happen.
For example…. toilet paper. The Americans are going to have hard time wiping their ….
The government will take 40% which has to be reflected in the charged rates, but we should vacation at home.
What I find frustrating is we have the most natural resources per capita in the world. Average CND should be driving a Cybertruck (or some equivalent) with a SFH with 2 dogs and 2 cats but we’ve redtaped and mismanaged ourselves into a position where a some 80 year old lose cannon in the states can bully us around.
Ok. But that’s not the point you made. You said that banning Airbnb made it too expensive for people to vacation to places like Victoria. Reality is hotel rates are up $21/ night and half of that is just inflation, so perhaps an extra $10/night. I’m merely pointing out the evidence doesn’t back up your assertion
The Liberals and NDP didn’t just govern us to economic ruin. The worst thing they did was destroy our Canadian unity and pride. We’ve been told all our institutions are racist, our history is just a story of genocide and exploitation, and that we are actually living on the land of other nations. Being annexed by the USA might now be inevitable and I’m not so sure that will be such a bad thing. What do we have to lose: our failing Healthcare system and high taxes?
So hotel affordability is not important, but we should vacation at home in spirit of the national mood. Not sure I follow.
This is crazy expensive imo, the average hotel in Victoria is simply not that great to warranty $284/night.
Better way to hit back: cancel all military purchases that are in the pipeline. The only reason Trump wants us to increase military spending is to sell us more jets.
I have no opinion on what kind of hotel the average Canadian should be able to afford. I’m more concerned about housing affordability than what the top 5% of hotels cost in a given city. It’s just not important.
Here’s the facts:
The average cost of a hotel stay in Victoria since AirBnB was banned in May was $284/night.
In 2023 during the same months it was $263 for an increase of $21/night. Will that break the back of the average Canadian? I doubt it. For sure we should be looking to allow more hotels to be built to give the market a chance to correct the undersupply if there is one.
Well that’s great. You should make that the banner on your website.
Wanting to kick him out after we’ve gone past the point of no return is too little too late.
Those are mostly 4 star business travel hotels, not super fancy but something an upper middle class family should be be able to afford.
Says the guy telling us we should have no pets and live in a dog crate in the sky.
BNN- Canadian dollar 67.75 cents. Getting close to a 50% exchange rate.
For that to happen sooner rather than later.
I personally think that the average Canadian deserves to be able to afford a vacation with his or her families in Victoria in a decent hotel. Victoria isn’t that special and neither are the Fairmont, Delta, etc.
What are we saying here – the average Canadian should be content with being able to afford a motel in Kamloops?
Standard of living should be higher, but it isn’t.
100%, Trump wouldn’t have this much leverage if we has a strong pro-business economy. Unfortunately, Trump is not giving us a pat on the back for our carbon taxes initiative.
Canadians are about to kick out the Liberals and elect the CPC. What more do you want?
Let’s see what maple leaf foods’ upcoming pricing strategy is. The beauty of it is that they can just blame it on tariff in their own obscure input costs and supply chain for their price increase. LMAO
Sorry, do I have to show a bell curve to explain that by definition the average Canadian is not vacationing in the top 5% of hotel options in the top 5% of Canadian cities?
Dude, that’s a low blow man. You make your living in Canada. A country that is now pretty much on its knees.
As I said, let me know when it is four flights a day. Only thing that will lower the flights to the US is the CND dollar tanking, rather than the “mood.”
The problem with a broad 25% tariff is that our supply chains with America are so complex and intertwined that no one knows where and when the Gremlins will appear that can shut down businesses and cause layoffs on either side of the border.
Exactly what happened with electronic chips used in new cars. Gremlins are going to be popping up everywhere.
Voting and holding our government accountable and demanding change would be a good solution. But that takes some effort which most of our population don’t care to do so here we are….
100%, I was wondering about this but for US businesses a couple of days ago. If Trump puts 25% tariffs on Canada what prevents a US substitute from increasing their prices 15%?
Yes. Plenty of people cancelling trips to the US. Will it last? Who knows. Certainly if this starts killing employment those cancellations may turn involuntary. We’ll have to wait and see.
Wait till Canadian businesses turn right around and raise their prices for substitutes to just below the American goods.
Victoria Fairmont isn’t even that nice. The $400 to $600/night hotels in Victoria are very mediocre if you’ve done any traveling. I guess the average Canadian vacationer deserves to be a in a motel 6 on the Pat Bay or whatever that hotel is called by the McDonalds.
Leo, there are six flights from Vancouver to Las Vegas tomorrow. Do you honestly think this many flight per day to Las Vegas is going to drop going forward? You think some guy or girl that lives in Surrey that loves poker and is signed up for tournament in Las Vegas is going to cancel his or her flight to help with the national mood? Common, let’s get real. Let me know when there are only four flights a day leaving Vancouver to Las Vegas.
I for the record haven’t been to the US since 2018 but boycotting vacation down there so I can drop $800/night at Fairmont Waterfront in Vancouver, common.
Canada: Hey we’re under economic attack. Let’s pull together and do what we can to support Canadian businesses. Maybe don’t buy a vehicle from the guy who bought Trump into the presidency.
Canadian one percenter: Lol, screw you pawns, every man for themselves I’m buying a second Tesla and jetting off to vegas.
You know I love ya Marko, but you do realize you are missing the national mood by a mile here, right?
Yes you are insulated from all this and can afford not to give a shit. The average Canadian is not. If it continues many people will lose their jobs. They are mad, and scared and want to do something about it, obviously knowing full well that cancelling netflix isn’t going to bring down America, but it’s better than nothing.
100%, wouldn’t it make sense to stop going to McDonald’s? It would dramatically help our broke health care system as well.
I like how non-stop I have to hear about how horrible of a company Amazon is and every other house I pull up to show there is a Amazon truck on the street. If they are so horrible just stop ordering from them, it isn’t complicated. and 90% of crap ordered from them is something that is likely not require for essential survival.
We need you to hack the numbers and tell us what to do!
As a child I lived through a war in Croatia for five years where ethnic cleansing and other atrocities took place so I would say that is a notch up from a tariff war and unfortunately everything is about money even in a war. Lots of people died fighting of independence and after the war the politicians ended up extremely rich, criminals did well, and the elite became even richer. The average person in both Croatia and Serbia got the shaft. My uncle who was on the front lines for 5 years and lost 10+ friends ended up with severe PTSD, no support, and crappy pension while politicians built villas and bought G-wagons.
so when Trudeau tells me to vacation in Canada while he files in a private jet to a Caribbean vacation, common. I will always put my family’s interest first whether that is vacation in the US or buying a Tesla from a psycho CEO….because the next CEO is probably just as crazy and greedy you just don’t know.
That’s the 1000$ question. Is it all a bunch of fireworks and will fizzle out? Or, is it something much larger? Don’t know.
I do know we had to respond so I’m ok with the counter tariffs. I understand that money/emotions is a false dichotomy.
We just sit and wait and be grateful that at least our government isn’t actively trying to throw us under the bus. Poor American people.
The free safer drugs are given to kids without question. Infact they are called Dave’s Dillies. He also has a variety of vending machines of rigs available for the delivery of Dave’s Dillies. Dave’s Dillies are fuelling fentanyl use, death & crime. This isn’t a joke…This is the reality, right now in British Columbia.
Don’t even get me started on the gender neutral washrooms!
How does this end? Real question, I am not an economist or political scientist.
1/ USA has 20% of GDP the world on a PPP basis…their stock markets capitalization is 65% of the worlds
2/ USA has more debt than the entire world combined
3/ USD$ is close to a 40 year high against a basket of world currencies
Reminds one of the Hunger Games and the Galactic Empire in Star Wars. IMHO, they have gamed the financial system and leveraged it for self preservation and sucking the resources of the world… Someone has to start taking a stand.
Don’t forget the free drugs and the gender neutral washrooms.
“100% agree with you here. I don’t vacation in Canada or US but if I had two equivalent vacation options and the US one was 10% better value I am going to the US. I am a fan of Elon Musk? Nope, guy is absolutely nuts; however, if Tesla has the best product on the market and it is the best value I am buying it every single time. What are my options? Go buy an EV from those really ethical and moral executives at VW – it’s not like they would try to cheat the emissions systems or anything unethical and shady..”
Seriously? That’s sad. I’d pay 10% more to avoid the US — especially now. It’s not just money for me.
When I lived in France I became friends with some fashion people. One of the guys did some schooling in the US. He has a hispanic last name but he’s French. Even though he lived in the US when he returned they gave him a hard time because of his last name. The French people I knew said they’re more interested in going to Japan nowadays – people are avoiding the US, If I want to go somewhere sketchy it wouldn’t be the US anyway lol.
We should have been doing this for the last 10 years but no we were too busy implementing carbon tax you know because China, India, Russia and now Trump are going to hold hands along with us in combating climate change 🙂
Haven’t heard anyone wanting to boycott Costco, stop going to McDonald’s etc.. LMAO, buy Canadian, stop buying u.s. blah blah blah ,bunch of lip service is all that is, no one is going to inconvenience their own lives in any significant way for this. The funniest thing is people trying to promote this boycott shit on u.s. company platforms (meta, x etc.). LMAO, just a show all around.
Max, I for one would not feel bad stepping on trumps shoes . He’s made it pretty clear what he thinks of Canada lol
Reality is most people aren’t willing to do more and if they are it ends up being short lived. Just look at the size of cars people drive and the numbers of pets people have, it is insane. Tell the average SUV owner that maybe they should buy a Honda Fit or Honda Yaris. If their cat’s favorite today is on Amazon they are going to use Amazon. I don’t think these are bad people it is simply human nature.
In Croatia right now people are boycotting grocery stories over high prices -> https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250124-croatians-boycott-shopping-to-protest-high-prices
My friend workers higher up at Lidl so I asked him how this played out….52% down on the boycott day, but up on the week and the month as well. To make an impact people would have to reduce their calorie intake and that just isn’t going to happen. They boycott the one day but buy more the day before or after.
100% agree with you here. I don’t vacation in Canada or US but if I had two equivalent vacation options and the US one was 10% better value I am going to the US. I am a fan of Elon Musk? Nope, guy is absolutely nuts; however, if Tesla has the best product on the market and it is the best value I am buying it every single time. What are my options? Go buy an EV from those really ethical and moral executives at VW – it’s not like they would try to cheat the emissions systems or anything unethical and shady..
Dee, agree , I’m not losing any sleep over it . This is a great time to shake up the Canadian economy and throw out regulation and red tape and let’s get some big time projects going
pump immigration.
Not a good idea. Trump is all over our lax immigration policy.
“The feds have plenty in the tool box to pump the economy.
Please, elaborate”
For starters, Immediately and permanently axe the carbon tax
Max, lower rates , easy credit let the dollar sink and pump immigration. I guess I’m thinking QE4 , it will be The Great Canadian golden age .
Yeah maybe it will get more expensive but we will make it through.
Keep calm and carry on!
Please, elaborate.
Our economy has been on thin ice since 2008. “Monetary policy cannot offset the economic consequences of a protracted trade conflict.” They can lower interest rates but that will lead to a decline in the CAD and higher inflation. Everything is going to get more expensive with this trade war.
Deja vu, this is all the same fears that we had in the 2008 financial crises and of course the pandemic . The world was coming to an end . The feds have plenty in the tool box to pump the economy.
Market is already over valued and strained, not much advantage left to take.
I think buying any housing is going to take the back seat this time around. The average Canadian will be more focused with holding on to their jobs and just staying put with the housing they are already in. Any frivolous spending will come to a grinding halt. If I were a car salesman, home furniture outlet, restaurant, or small-medium retailer, I would just go ahead and close the doors first thing tomorrow morning.
The only demand will be absolutely essential home services such as a plumber or a roofer. You can not dance around these two trades. If you need these guys, you need these guys…They are recession proof! Everything else household related can wait.
I also suggest a fishing licence. You would be surprised by just how easy it is to trap crab. If big game is your thing an FAC will be required along with a hunting licence. A 4×4 pickup truck with an 8′ box is suggested for the bigger game!
For smaller game such as duck, rabbit, quail, and squirrel, only a co2 pellet gun with a decent scope is required for the head shot.
This is a recipe for disaster: high debt + low productivity + Trump + tarrifs + recession + massive job losses + inflation + declining CAD. Max is right. President Trump has us by the balls.
So far there’s no CAD fall, let alone a free fall, against currencies other than USD….
… While the CAD has fallen 5% against USD since early November 24 before the election, the CAD is actually up a little against most other currencies since then, including EUR, CHF, GBP, AUD
The point being the story in FX is a rising USD against almost all currencies (except JPY). USD strength expected to continue with the imposition of tariffs.
The last two black swans caused the central bank to crash rates and launch prices up after a momentary decline. I don’t expect that outcome but I think clear that black swan don’t necessarily mean price declines. All hinges on how much impact there is on unemployment
The market has no conscience nor does it care about US / Canada relations. Any sale of equities by Canadians out to make a point will slightly lower the price below market value which will immediately be taken advantage of by other market participants.
Venezuela: The Rise and Fall.
Decades of poor governance have driven what was once one of Latin America’s most prosperous countries into economic and political ruin.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/venezuela-crisis
Could this be the black swan event that brings down the Canadian housing market? Whether home prices go up from here won’t matter much if our Canadian dollar is in free fall.
Wikipedia page goes on to say the term was coined to describe the situation in Somalia in the 90s. Dude how can anyone think Canada is even close to that.
Anyway although it would be a mistake to rest on the hope of a swift rescue I do think the EU and other nations will have to react somehow. I mean look how democratic states responded to Putin. It’s a security issue for many nations not just Canada.
Is this what you mean by a failed nation? (aka failed state) from Wikipedia.
A failed state is a state that has lost its ability to fulfill fundamental security and development functions, lacking effective control over its territory and borders. Common characteristics of a failed state include a government incapable of tax collection, law enforcement, security assurance, territorial control, political or civil office staffing, and infrastructure maintenance.[1] When this happens, widespread corruption and criminality, the intervention of state and non-state actors, the appearance of refugees and the involuntary movement of populations, sharp economic decline, and military intervention from both within and outside the state are much more likely to occur.[2]
A « failed nation »? What does that even mean? Like any country with low gdp is a failed nation and so doesn’t exist as a nation?
That assumes they will just keep buying the dip.
Trump asked Trudeau himself what Canada would do without the current trade relations/subsidies/whatever else is going on with America. Trudeau’s answer…Canada would be a failed nation. So here we are, right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ywefFVjoGY
Which is 60% above the average room rate for Victoria in July. I think this anecdote may be of limited relevance to the average Canadian vacationer.
“ President Donald Trump said on Sunday the sweeping tariffs that he has imposed on Mexico, Canada and China may cause “some pain” for Americans, as Wall Street and the largest U.S. trading partners signaled hope that the trade war would not last long.
U.S. futures markets opened [-1.7%] lower in a sign that investors were worried the tariffs could spur inflation and drag on growth, as economists have warned.”
Selling US equities doesn’t even make sense. That doesn’t hurt the americans, that helps them by letting them pick up equities below market value.
America’s annexation of Hawaii in 1898 extended U.S. territory into the Pacific and highlighted resulted from economic integration and the rise of the United States as a Pacific power.
https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/gp/17661.htm
Tell me. Who exactly would be rushing into help Canada? Its almost as though they have been waiting.
China likes to manipulate it’s currency to offset the impact instead of going tit for tat.
I don’t think I’m on the high ground here. More the norm than the outlier would be my guess.
In terms of changes, making easier changes right now should not be ridiculed, it is the beginning. Right now we don’t know what the best moves are for our country on an individual level other than this, and getting buy in for the easy ones is the best move imo. Buy local. Don’t buy American. Don’t vacation there. Post about it. 40 million consumers have some power with these small measures.
In terms of significant impacts on my life – I would be willing to do a lot more than buying local depending on what the real effect is and what the stakes and are. However, it needs to make sense and be part of a solid plan. Just like with any investment, you need to understand the variables to know that your strategy is sound. I don’t right now – no-one seems to.
Trump knows the tariffs will hit Canada and Mexico much harder than the u.s. of this keeps up we will for certain end up at the negotiating table
There’s also China and (soon-to-be) the EU. Their combined GDP is much more than the USA and they’ll all be tariffing US exports. This will hit the USA as it will be potentially 65% of their exports getting tariffed.
If the US is allowed to be a country that tariffs imports but no one tariffs their exports then most factories would get built in the USA instead of in other countries. So almost every country should (and likely will) reciprocate.
Trump knows the tariffs will hit Canada and Mexico much harder than the u.s. of this keeps up we will for certain end up at the negotiating table. Canada has enough problems going into 2025 without the tariffs.
I do see a potential positive for me personally out of this tariff war. I hope we drop the tariffs on Chinese made EVs, I have had some experience with them during some trips to China and they offer the best value by far, I would like to get one.
I think Trump understands America is a financial train wreck. He understands that Canada is financial train wreck. He also understands that Mexico is a financial train wreck. Maybe he thinks if we all go down in unison as one giant North American train wreck…Perhaps that could lessen the blow.
Pretty damn easy to switch your ETFs to either tsx or international/emerging markets sans u.s. I can give you some tickers if you like?
Selling stock, ETF, and currency is a 2 min interaction with a smartphone. you choose not to do it because it may lead to some significant adverse consequences for you personally. Please step get off your moral high ground and just admit your actions will be limited to ones that won’t negatively impact your life in a significant way.
Every Canadian citizen with any kind of sizable liquid wealth should seriously be considering looking into bitcoin right about now. Warren Buffett’s record cash pile is starting to make people nervous.
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervous
“The world’s most famous investor is building up a pile of cash. Everyday investors may understandably worry whether the moves by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway amount to a warning sign, particularly with stocks soaring to all-time highs in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential-election victory last week.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-growing-cash-hoard-makes-stock-market-bulls-nervous-should-it-21e030ca
Bummer- most of my RRSP is Microsoft.
Or do what is easy and achievable asap until you really understand what the best strategy is. Small acts repeated across Canada will have some impact on American companies and act as a unifying force if talked about and posted about.
Seems far better than trying to figure out if your ETF has a % of American company investments at this point until we really understand what the best move is. And I’d agree with Patrick, that type of strategy could be part of a coordinated government response based on adequate assessment of impact/risk.
Being self-oriented is okay to a point, but there is value in taking care of your community and country imo and in spreading the word.
It may happen anyway for everyone if government wants that, at least for tax-sheltered assets like RSP.
Prior to 2006 and especially before 1994, most or all investments in RSP needed to be Canadian investments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Registered_retirement_savings_plan?utm_source=chatgpt.com
If the government sees an economic crisis requiring more Canadian investments, they can simply change RSP rules forcing investments to shift to Canadian investments. I don’t expect this to happen. But it has happened in many other countries that have experienced problems with falling currency or investments.
Go dump all u.s. assets you own then, don’t talk about it be about it.
If trump didn’t have the fentanyl “ruse”, he couldn’t claim a national security emergency, and then he would require Congress approval for any tariffs. Note that Congress + senate has the power to take away the presidents “national security” reason for tariffs, by repealing or amending the section 232 law that allows it in the first place.
And this is exactly what the Democrats are trying to do now in Congress. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5119377-trump-tariff-threat-coons-kaine-congress/ As we know, the republicans have a tiny majority in Congress, but all it would take is a few republicans to side with democrats to get a bill initially passed like this. Of course, it would still need to be passed ( majority) in the senate, and then if veto’d by the president it would require a 2/3 vote by Congress and senate to pass it. It’s a long shot now, very likely to fail, but if these tariffs turn out to be unpopular, and a big flop, we may see Congress and senate remove / restrict these presidential powers in a few years.
I’m putting a hundred grand on Philly. (Just kidding).
“ Bell Media [ctv, tsn] is thought to be paying in the region of $40m to $50m per season for NFL rights in Canada.” https://media.sportbusiness.com/2023/02/in-focus-national-football-league/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
and
Canadian YouTubers … “ Oxford Economics’ new research calculates that YouTube’s creative ecosystem directly contributed $1.1 billion CAD to Canada’s GDP in 2021. It also supported 34,600 full time equivalent (FTE) jobs in Canada.” https://blog.google/intl/en-ca/company-news/outreach-initiatives/a-look-at-youtubes-ripple-effect-on-the-canadian-creator-economy/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
That would be the rational thing to do. However I don’t think we’ve seen any evidence that the new administration is following a rational path
I’m going to do what is best for Canada’s position in this dispute. Not only because I’m Canadian, but because we are not the instigator of this dispute and I really don’t hold with bully behaviour. Also, not a fan of the 51st state rhetoric.
I’m just not quite sure what the best thing to do is right now and would hope government can get it together because I think the majority of Canadians would rally behind a good strategy.
What I do know it is pretty easy and immediate to buy BC, go to locally owned businesses, and avoid US consumer products. Also pretty easy to vacation here as well. You don’t have to do everything, incremental steps are good too imo.
I think Dad is right. I don’t think it’s about some rational objective like the border.
For our family we do what we can knowing we can never do everything but we’ve also decided that doing nothing isn’t an option.
The Canadian government switched to the failing green initiative. The death blow. Anyone looking into buying a Tesla these days? We should build oil refineries in full blast right now coast to coast to coast. Focus on having oil pipelines in place to all three coasts for immediate export ASAP.
The superbowl is already a sham with the refs having stolen the game from Buffalo with many biased calls including the last 4th down where Buffalo turned the ball over the KC, all of the TV commentators disagreed with the call which was a surpise. Not a big surpise as having women turn in to watch TS smle for the camera has to be worth 10’s of millions, this is afterall the USA where the bottom line is always about the dollar.
I will boycott.
How many Canadians will boycott the superbowl next Sunday? GTFO, most Canadians have zero clue of how much we rely on the u.s. for everything from national defense to entertainment.
We import $28 billion usd of food from USA annually. 25% tariff on that would be $7 billion. That $7 billion gets added to food costs and if so that is $175 usd per person in Canada. But the $7 billion is tariff revenue to Canadian government that they will likely completely return to Canadians to offset the tariffs.
That’s worst case, as we will likely switch to non-US sourced food – importing more from Mexico, and eating more Canadian food.
I am going to do what’s best for my family and if that means buying, investing or vacationing in u.s. then I will do it. I have zero confidence on any level government in Canada to look out for us other than charging higher and higher taxes.
If you really want to walk the walk then why don’t you sell all your investments that has a u.s. component, all your USD, stop watching u.s. media/entertainment. Don’t just nibble around the edges and do some trivial gestures.
If that was the end game, he could have provided some concrete actions that Canada should take regarding border security. He didn’t do that, said he wasn’t looking for concessions, and there was nothing Canada could do to avoid the tariffs.
The whole border security/fentanyl issue is a manufactured crisis to enable the president to impose tariffs unilaterally and bypass congress. It does give him an off-ramp, however, if this policy experiment proves to be a failure.
I think the tariffs are sticking around for awhile. He campaigned on this, and has surrounded himself with loyalist lackeys. This is not anything like the first term.
Buckle up.
If he picked up the phone and called Canada asking for more around the boarder Canada would agree and Trump could drop the tariffs and go back to the public and say using my business savvy I was able to get what I wanted out of Canada while Biden sat around doing nothing.
Canada needs to develop a strategic oil reserve. That may be easier to accomplish with the current anti-American sentiment.
Also building pipelines that run east – west is extremely expensive when it may be more expedient to build one going north to a sea port along the Arctic shore at Grays Bay. And then by tankers to either the ease or west coasts. By doing so this would also open up huge mineral resources that are almost inaccessible today.
totoro- Bingo! Your comments are dead on. It is time to sell investment properties, I’m looking to bail this year, not sure where to park the money, might need a dozen bank accounts. Anyone know a good bank in the Caymans. These tariffs could lead us into another Great Depression. Bail on investments, the markets could collapse. Look what happened when China came up with Deep Seek, all the high flying tech companies crapped their pants. Not sure where renters are going to live.
The hit to a Canadian exporter who wants his us importer unaffected in price is more like 15% (measured comparing prices he got in November prior to trump election ), nowhere near the hysteria of 25%.
—-/// details
Any Canadian exporter wanting to lower his price so that the USA importer is not impacted, needs to lower his prices by 20%, not 25%.
Consider a $100 usd product. Instead of charging $100usd, if the Canadian lowers by 20% to $80 usd the us importer then pays a 25% tariff on $80usd which is $20 and ends up paying the same. ($100usd).
In addition, the Canadian exporter has seen the usd rise 6% since trump got elected (from .7185 nov 3/24 to .6783 today).
So the overall hit to the CAD exporter is the 20% discount he gives the USA importer, offset by the 6% extra cad he receives from recent rise in the usd, so his overall hit is 15%.
15% is obviously a lot smaller than the 25% headline number. It won’t be possible for all exporters to take a hit like that, but many will end up sharing the hit with the us importer.
I beleive Trump will cave to pressure shortly from his party and the public and back track on the tariffs with his tail between his legs, his approval rating was already the lowest of any elected president in over 70 years and has since fallen further below 45%. This back tracking will mark the beginning of his downfall as he is being stood up to like the bully in the school yard and he will now be seen as the small, weak and pathetic man that he really is.
LMAO, why don’t u go read some of the comments cheering on the trade war here on hhv.
We cancelled our trip to the US. Passed on all US products at the supermarket today and bought BC. It’s not that hard to do – but who knows how effective – it did make me feel better briefly.
I have no idea how this plays out and what the best move is for Canada. Just that government better get it together pronto. Terrible time to have weakness at the top.
Probably going to be a good time to buy RE though. Seems like lots of people have been waiting for interest rates to drop and prices to rise again to sell. Only so long you can do that if you actually need to sell. Especially people with secondary residences who have had a reprieve from the cap gains tax increase and are really tired of being demonized as landlords.
Uncertainty plus lower immigration following a huge run up in prices plus tons of purpose build rentals probably leads to a long flat period in places like Victoria. And in smaller towns in places like the Okanagan the STR ban, fires, tariffs on manufacturing and lumber, lower tourism numbers from coming job losses might cause prices to drop more.
We’re all Venezuelans now
Claver-Carone said if Maduro does not comply with the demands, Venezuela will face “consequences.”…While Claver-Carone said the talks with Maduro do not mean that the US is giving up on its goal of regime change in Venezuela, opening up trade with Caracas could help Trump as he seeks to exert economic leverage over Canada with tariffs… Venezuela’s heavy crude is one of the few sources of oil that can replace what Canada’s supplies to the US.
I agree Dee…but not so that we become part of America, but rather, so we become a more compliant vassal of Fortress North America.
As Deryk posted, we’ve stood by as America used economic pressure to bend other countries to its will; now the chickens may be coming home to roost.
I already booked our family suite at Harrison hot springs in august. There are still options. Book now – especially with hotels can cancel before for free.
and travel didn’t exist until planes came along? While Trudeau vacations with his family in Tofino in some resort at $2,000/night the average person can just take their family to Goldstream park and camp there. Fairmont Victoria is $550/night for July and that is isn’t even that nice. It is cheaper to go to Europe.
Just curious, does banning airbnb make vacationing more affordable in Canada? While he is telling us to vacation is Canada.
Here is a short primer on what happened when Trump put tariffs in place in 2018.
https://youtu.be/_-eHOSq3oqI?si=WLTOPyK2TVoh3SE9
Notwithstanding what the Great Cheeto might say, I don’t think the Republicans have any desire to bring another California into the US, as someone put it. They won’t even let Puerto Rico in.
More like another Belarus I would say.
It will take some time for Canadian businesses to source alternative product lines from other countries. There may be less selection in the grocery stores of products that we are used to buying, but an increase in different goods from Mexico, Central, and South America.
What we have been accustomed to in a supermarket is likely to change as Canadians switch to different products, vegetables, and fruits. For American companies importing to Canada they risk that the Canadian consumer will permanently change to alternative goods.
https://youtu.be/Tuh8CvQti2g?si=Gi9ThR0895QRR3y1
I do find all the drama over tariffs bloody entertaining. The effects of the tariffs is way overblown
Marko , banning airb&b was just dumb and inflationary. I’m guessing most Canadians can’t afford 400 bucks a nite which seems to be about the norm
I too worry that the plan is to bring Canada to it’s knees so it will join the US. However, the US is so divided internally with basically two ideologically opposed groups cementing in. At the same time all the economic pain that Americans will feel at the grocery store. I mean, people fight when they’re hungry and the number of hungry Americans is going to tick up a lot. The trump people will blame it all on migrants/DEI and everyone else will blame trump. So personally I think they’ll have a civil war before anything like invading Canada. And no, we cannot be « absorbed » passively as is being suggested. I mean Quebec couldn’t even separate!
There is no possible outcome where Canada becomes part of the US short of all out war. And then they would likely lose for so many reasons (another discussion).
For what it is worth, This is how I see it.
I believe that America wants to inflict great economic pain on Canada so that enough Canadians throw up their hands and beg to join the USA. (I’m absolutely serious in what I am saying here.)
The US desperately wants to bring down China’s economy because it is very close to knocking the USA off it’s perch.
Biden clearly said “China is eating our lunch”.
There is a massive change happening to the world order. (It’s not there yet but America can see the looming problem and understands that China is starting to lead in every field.)
As you will know, China supplies America with very important resources which America will have to replace from somewhere. Canada has many of those very unusual minerals and special resources. As the US places more tariffs on China, the more China will cut off those important supplies that the USA needs.
America will not have to fire a shot. They can crush Canada economically……. and under Trump they will.
It doesn’t matter what is fair or what international laws might be broken. (Hell…Canada supported the US when it voted to invade other countries…knowing full well that it broke international law. )
Canada thought 100% tariffs on China were a great idea when America wanted us to place them on China’s EV’s etc.
The world is what we make it.
And this is the world that we have created.
I don’t know what this will all mean for real estate or anything else. But I’m convinced Canada is in serious trouble and there is likely no fix for this. We can inflict some pain on America but that will be short lived because they will get Canada with it’s vast resources in return.
When America does absorb Canada, then I know I would not be able to stay here because I want no part of America.
I realize that what I am saying is so utterly unthinkable that I’m sure there will be a lot of push back. No worries. I understand.
No one will want to believe the harsh reality.
Congratulations.
As we know, vacations did not exist until AirBnB was invented
Yes, and thank god you’re here to let us know. Otherwise all of us clueless people would think our oranges were coming from Nunavut.
Vicre, I’m a little suprised at how much stuff is made in Canada lol, I pretty much assumed we imported most everything. Imo I’m not too bothered by the tariffs as I think it will not put us in a recession and any downturn will be a short blip , I hold no animosity towards Americans, they are more than welcome this tourist season
Well, we’re fucked!
Lmao, have you seen the list of items that are subject to the retaliatory tariff? Middle class and poor people will feel it the most. Most of you have zero clue how much daily products you use are Imported….
I like Trudeau noting in his speech that Canadians might have to vacation in Canada this summer instead of US…..like in all the wonderful places in Canada that have banned Airbnb
The something IMHO being a backlash from Midwestern motorists angry at higher gas prices. The lower tarriff was probably calculated to be less noticeable after refining and other local costs and taxes are added to the cost of the oil.
So, of course, he slaps a lower tariff on oil. Because fentanyl. Or DEI. Or something.
It will be interesting if Musk gets a chance to gut whatever agency is responsible for administering the tariffs before Tuesday. Lots of spaghetti sauce on the walls of the oval office and rescheduling of diaper changes.
The US trade deficit with Canada exists because of sales of Canadian oil to the US, at a lower price than domestically produced US oil.
On Planet Trump that amounts to a “subsidy” to Canada by the US.
Trump thinks a trade deficit is a subsidy. Dead wrong of course but it gives you an idea of the long term aim here. Get the trade deficit to zero. That would mean there’s no way to negotiate out of this and Canada needs to prepare for a few years of that reality. Going to be painful.
“My thoughts are that he wants Canada and America to re-negotiate rather than America unilaterally breach the trade agreement.”
Why would he want this? Because he cares about the law? I hope I’m wrong!!! I really do! Man sure does give a new appreciation for the status quo (of democracy and liberal markets).
Up until yesterday, Trump was saying that on Saturday he would be imposing the tariff.
But he didn’t.
He pushed it back to Tuesday.
Why?
My thoughts are that he wants Canada and America to re-negotiate rather than America unilaterally breach the trade agreement.
If we were looking at this using Game Theory. Trump blinked first.
Groot you’re right that Trump doesn’t have his own peoples’ interests at heart. I feel bad for average Americans. He will come back to cutting aid programs – the halt is only temporary. That with inflated prices of everyday consumer goods caused by his trade war. It’s going to be most painful for everyday Americans. I can picture bread line-ups great depression style. But Groot, I don’t think he will quit the presidency, at least not before terrible things happen and he is forced out. In his mind he is fixing a disease that has infected America – the disease of migrants and minority rights. So he thinks all the pain is worth it. And he has even mentioned that God has sent him on this mission. So why would he quit his God given mission to save America? He won’t.
Seems a bit more targeted than that
Trumps heart, literally and figuratively, aren’t in the presidency. He’ll probably make a fortune on cryptocurrency and Trump Media shares while he destroys America.
The way I see things playing out is that Trump will resign the presidency. Vance will become president and pardon Trump for all crimes.
Gold coins are safer than bullion. I’ve seen some very convincing one ounce wafers that are exact duplicates of Australian gold. Gold coins will show wear that is difficult to copy. Tungsten is very close to the weight of gold. There are bars sitting in vaults that are plated tungsten. The U.S. dollar was being massively counterfeited by Iraq decades ago, I believe that’s why the U.S. invaded in the 90’s. The question remains- What form of payment would you take for your land? The Canadian dollar is dropping every month. I like silver, it has enormous industrial and technological applications. Not much works without it.
The scary thing about all this is: Trump is in bed with Putin. Can you say “New World Order”.
The U.S. dollar is the world’s currency. If you don’t want to hold U.S. dollars then exchange them for gold.
It’s just more simpler buying things anywhere in the world with dollars than carrying bricks of gold around with you. I suppose you could buy a car with physical gold but the dealer is unlikely to accept it until it is tested. Gold coins are counterfeited.
https://youtube.com/shorts/Jnq5zD7wQMo?si=WJ1VXnZIzSQyxJrz
Canada needs the WILL to make things happen. This is the kick in the arse we need:
1/ we have the natural resources
2/ we have the human resources
3/ we don’t have the financial markets yet to support it. The USA prints trillions of $s out of thin air and expect us to give to an ounce of gold for 20 pieces of paper they print up will the symbol $100 on it.
The world is frankly tired of this hegemonic behaviour. There is a better way and our leaders need to get us there~
Business will have to adjust their supply chains. Instead of buying cars and trucks from the USA we will buy them from Mexico.
Any tariffs we had imposed against China in support of the US can be nullified. Electric vehicles, steel, aluminum, batteries, semiconductors, solar panels, and critical minerals for example.
Look for the “Product of Canada” label on the food you buy.
>> I don’t know if the counter tariffs are a good idea
I think counter tariffs are great.
One thing in our favour is that Canada isn’t alone here. It’s Canada, Mexico, China and soon the EU as well. The GDP of all of those countries exceeds the USA by a lot.
All of those countries will be fighting back by adding tariffs of their own to their US imports and adding export restrictions on some exports to the USA. Likely expanded trade will develop between Canada and the other “tariffed” countries. There will be lots of job losses in the USA and probably a recession.
Trump started a trade war. So yeah it’s going to get messy. And no one will come out unscathed. Remember also that Mexico counter retaliated too – thankfully. Trumps a moron – would have been far smarter to do one then the other.
LMAO weaker currency, way smaller economy trying to go blow for blow? I think trump just said he will double the tariffs if we retaliate.
I don’t know if the counter tariffs are a good idea – i don’t think they’re an obviously bad idea. It’s not just about money and emotions.
I think maybe the US is exiting democracy. So yeah, watching that from so close, not too comfortable.
So much for building “affordable house”.
Trump and his version of the USA is extremely destabilizing to Canada. It will only get worst IMHO until there is a black swan event. This is the rallying call for Canadians to diversify our business interests. Canada can make this our TSN turning point!
Wow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3nZwivptaY
Well done Justin!
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/politics/2025/02/02/canada-retaliating-for-trumps-tariffs-with-25-per-cent-tariffs-on-billions-of-us-goods-justin-trudeau/
“ In retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Canada is responding with 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of American goods.”
Looks like a “last call” in BC Liquor stores for anyone looking for a Tennessee whiskey (Jack Daniel’s) or Kentucky bourbon (Jim Beam)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-premier-david-eby-us-tariffs-1.7448307
“As an initial response, Eby said he has directed the B.C. Liquor Distribution Branch to immediately stop purchasing American liquor from Republican-led “red states” and remove the top-selling brands from public liquor store shelves”
Soooo, house prices went up last time trump put on tariffs so I’m guessing we will have the same results this time around , sweet .
Patrick. He is not a rational actor. He’s got a lot of things going on … but clearly he’s not a rational actor. And he has been given the keys to the kingdom. So yeah, new game, new rules.
As bad as the situation may become with the new American president upsetting the apple cart of North American trade, we needed a kick in the pants:
“Port police were eliminated across the country in 1997 as part of a series of federal cost-cutting measures…in 2023 retired RCMP deputy commissioner Peter German produced a report for the City of Delta about the infiltration of organized crime at the Port of Vancouver. One of his recommendations was increased security screening for workers there.
Now The federal government is looking at bolstering security at Canada’s ports, including more security screenings for those working on the docks.
Transport Minister Anita Anand announced Friday that changes would come after a two-month public consultation phase ending March 31.”
Sounds like trump has officially signed the order. Tariffs of 25% on all Canadian imports except for 10% on oil starting Tuesday.
Correct, but to be clear, WTO is still functioning, and that appellate issue doesn’t affect hearing of trade disputes like a CanadaUSA dispute. If there was a decision, and then an appeal, then a final post-appeal judgment could be delayed until sufficient appeal judges are appointed.
He just wants to make it look like he’s done something. For example, he “tore up NAFTA”, and in reality US/Canada and Mexico just made minor tweaks, and renamed it USMCA. The same thing will happen here IMO. We will see on Monday morning if 25% tariffs are being collected at US customs.
Thanks for that research Patrick. As is often the case, just below the surface of the mud there is more mud:
Canada is not the only country in trade disputes with America, and the WTO dispute settlements require a functioning Appellate Body.
Unfortunately, On 11 December 2019, the Appellate Body of the WTO ceased to function, being unable to review appeals because the United States has blocked the appointment of new judges to the WTO’s Appellate Body due to complaints over judicial activism at the WTO and concerns over U.S. sovereignty.
And boom goes the dynamite. As the spring housing market flickers out….
Patrick, do you have examples where trump has changed course after learning something is illegal? He seems like a scofflaw to me. That being said he did back down on Cuba but they took his migrants (a single demand he made in the short term).
>>> One legal way to break the CMUSA is to claim national security reasons, thus the border security ruse.
There are specific limits in the USMCA on use of the “national security” reason to break the agreement, contained within “side letters” to the USMCA. Specifically, most auto cars and auto parts cannot be tariffed for national security (up to limits of $32 billion USD parts per year, and 2.6 million cars exported to USA from Canada. So under USMCA most autos and auto parts would continue tariff free despite national security tariffs, as long as USMCA is in place and USA honors it.
In addition, there is a 60 day Canada/USA negotiation period that must occur before tariffs based on national security take effect.
Chances are the USA will do this, and there’ll be the 60 days grace period and negotiations .
If they don’t it’s a clear USMCA violation, and Canada would have a WTO remedy available.
IMO, things will be settled long before tariffs have any serious effect.
————//// details
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 gives the President of the United States the power to limit imports that could threaten national security. The President can use tariffs or other methods to adjust imports.
However, the USMCA has specific provisions that deal with section 232 and limit the use. These are incorporated as “side letters” and are on both the Canadian https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cusma-aceum/text-texte/letters-lettres.aspx?lang=eng
and USA websites . https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement/agreement-between Search for “section 232” and “side letters”
One side letter gives Canada 60 days grace period before tariffs take effect, and describe a process where USA/canada “shall seek to negotiate an appropriate outcome.
“The United States shall not adopt or maintain a measure imposing tariffs or import restrictions on
goods or services of Canada under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended
(Section 232), for at least 60 days after imposition of a measure.
During that 60-day period, the United States and Canada shall seek to negotiate an appropriate
outcome based on industry dynamics and historical trading patterns.”
Another one describes limitation on using tariffs for auto trading it specifically says that if USA invokes “national security”, canada can still export tariff free auto parts up to $32.4 billion usd per year , and 2.6 million cars to USA. https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/assets/pdfs/agreements-accords/cusma-aceum/letter-232autos.pdf
So if Trump ignores this, Canada can challenge under WTO rights. “ For greater certainty, Canada also retains its WTO rights to challenge a Section 232 measure”
In likelihood. A negotiation will occur, and things will be settled and return back to normal.
Yeah student housing is a no brainer that almost no one seems to object to. Also mixed use commercial residential like at univ heights. Almost zero opposition at that PH. May as well take the easy wins and maximize housing in those areas
Arrow, thanks!
The American tariff may violate the terms of CUSMA. The justification of fentanyl and illegal immigration may not be deemed to rise to a national security level by an international court. The tariff would then be repealed and possibly penalties imposed against the USA.
Of course Trump could just give the court the finger and continue with the tariff. But that would damage American international relations with other countries. The US dollar might lose its reliability as the currency for global transactions. Then the U.S. would lose its ability to borrow money at lower interest rates compared to other countries, and its competitive edge in global trade.
One legal way to break the CMUSA is to claim national security reasons, thus the border security ruse.
Someday we will take our lumps and pay the piper. Doing so at a time when our governments and central bank had more room to move would have been less disruptive.
In the meantime, we are still kicking the can down the road.
Indeed, sounds plausible (that it is a violation of treaty, and that such things do not matter to Trump). Are you aware of a stronger argument or confirmation that it is indeed a violation of CMUSA?
And absolutely agreed that UVic should build more housing. More generally the relative lack of ambition and long-term planning by the UVic administration is glaringly obvious when compared with the transformation at UBC during the past decade.
My feedback is: build this and three more as soon as possible. The more students living on campus and not in the surrounding neighbourhood, the better.
UVic seeking feedback on proposed 500-bed student residence
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/uvic-seeking-feedback-on-proposed-500-bed-student-residence-10165249
I think it is, but it would take a long time to adjudicate and Trump probably wouldn’t even abide by the final decision.
Usually the TC letters to the editor section is more amusing than informative (e.g. how Elon Musk was Heil Hitlering to encourage an allegedly huge but otherwise undetectable Nazi movement in the States, which is definitely not an insane conspiracy theory), but there was an interesting letter this morning arguing (assuming really in vigorous terms) that imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico is a violation of CMUSA.
Is that actually true? I hadn’t heard that before.
Holding on to property to live in long term is great. Even if house prices go down if you wait long enough they will go up again. The problem is if there’s some kind of life changes that forces people to have to sell. Like divorce or death. And the person has to sell at a loss. I don’t worry about those things. If my partner wants to leave me he can. We are both committed especially when kids are young. After that who knows I could just move wherever. As for death, there’s life insurance, which we both have. Skyrocketing interest rates and mortgage renewal – the ongoing risk of owning. But, I don’t see how selling would help in that situation. Again, it would be to ride it out.
I’m watching the changes T is making next door and it occurred to me that it’s like a renovation project. Right now he’s doing demo. If this is demo what comes next? Is it just an aesthetic upgrade or a full demolition and rebuild? I mean, it’s clear that we’re witnessing the demolition now, what replaces all these things, that’s what I’m starting to wonder about.
Is property one of the only safeguards for an individual to inflation? No matter the point in history, people seem to complain about the price of housing, yet it just keeps getting more and more expensive.
True but facile. The unaffordability peak in 1981 was due to the all time high interest rates – led by US Fed chair Paul Volcker – which were brought in to end the inflationary spiral which started in the late 1960s during the Vietnam War, combined with a runup in house prices in response to that inflation. It was unrelated to the factors behind affordability trends in later decades.
Not taking into account 3 million new folks is twisting the data, not the other way around.
joe, sorry man still not a recession , no matter how they twist the data havnt seen 2 negative quarters .
GDP per capita has declined for 6 consecutive quarters: https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canada-recession-headline-numbers-economists
Sincerely,
Debbie
He means: “Borrow from Peter to pay Paul” I think.
Canada’s economy grew 1.4 percent in 2024 , sooo no recession yet for all the debbie downers . With the tariffs probably a bumpy start but we will get it sorted . I’m looking forward to a better selection at the grocery store
Commodities are one thing. My concern is value added intellectual property data that comes with a price tag that is digitally transferred over the border, that is both bought and sold between Canada and the States 24-7-365?
>> And they were better under Chretien than under Harper, etc.
That’s not what the data shows. As you can see, the two worst periods were Pierre Trudeau And Justin Trudeau. Both Trudeau eras were marked by inflation and surges in population growth from immigration , despite high unemployment in the early 80’s.
Other than that, affordability was in a cyclical pattern, which ended around 2016 – when we got the Trudeau Liberals. According to Leo’s charts, the only times Victoria’s affordability exceeded 60% of income were the periods when we had a Trudeau as prime minister . (I didn’t include the brief June 4, 1979 to March 3, 1980 Joe Clark “reign”)
I’d be happy to see tariffs on all US alcohol. I like that one. People will miss Snoop Dogg’s wine but hey that’s the price we pay.
I have been reading news coverage on tariffs in the U.S and it’s bloody funny some of them . They are describing it as inconceivable that Mexico and Canada would put on retaliatory tariffs lol
what does this mean: ” Tariffs will be peter and Paul “
I think it’s time to get off this idea that Trump and his inner circle have some kind of grand strategy. Listen to the guy talk. He isn’t sure what the tariffs are for.
Best hope is that the tariffs hurt regular Americans and Wall Street enough to cause a backlash. But MAGA will probably just blame it on Biden and DEI so I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Dee , interest rates are trending down and housing prices are ticking higher, that we know is fact. Tariffs will be peter and Paul I don’t think they are going to have a great effect on the economy . Imo
And they were better under Chretien than under Harper, etc. It’s a long term trend which has had little to do with the government in power.
But I think it’s worth noting that Harper intervened in 2008/9 to prevent a US-style housing decline. Canada was the only country where housing prices went up during the financial crisis/recession, and it was then that house prices in Canada passed those in the US, which has been the case ever since.
Thursty my concern is that rates will jump north of 5 by the end of the year and house prices will adjust accordingly. Good to be optimistic. One possible good case scenario is that this is part of an overall strategy to test CA/MEX before the new trade negotiations start next year and that there’s no intention to keep the tariffs in place for any length of time.
Leo I had the same question about if it’s in addition or new ones. Don’t know.
I want to start a spreadsheet that lists all the decisions day by day (maybe just the executive orders). That would be fun to look back at.
Higher incomes in themselves don’t make housing more affordable. Canada’s least affordable markets have higher incomes than the most affordable. And which market saw the biggest decrease in affordability over the last couple of years?
And just what happened when we saw a big drop in rates a couple of years ago? Did housing get more affordable?
To get housing more affordable you have to alter the supply/demand balance. Increasing supply is really under the control of the provinces. The feds do have influence over demand through immigration numbers. Whether they will change with a change in government we will see. The Conservatives will not commit to hard numbers.
Nice tariffs are coming , I’m thinking house prices are going up as interest rates are going down, hold on to your hats.
I haven’t really followed the China situation. Is the 10% on top of all the tariffs that were put in last time, or did some of those get unwound? Not sure if anyone is calculating a total effective tariff rate.
The lesson you should take from that chart is that the affordability of housing in Victoria has approximately zero connection with the federal government in power.
Back to how to respond to the tariffs. My understanding is that the US imposed sweeping tariffs on China during Trump’s first term, which continue to negatively impact both economies. China responded by imposing (aggressive) tariffs against the US. Now, Trump is back and he is only doing 10% tariffs on China but 25% on Canada and Mexico. So, perhaps China’s show of strength is the reason for its preferential treatment, in which case a more tit-for-tat approach is better. I read an interesting article today written by a law professor who teaches negotiation about Trump’s negotiation style. Basically it said that Trump only negotiates distributively (win-lose) – even in complex multi-issue situations where there are other factors like relationships etc. So, he sees every negotiation as having a winner and a loser. In that sense Herle Burle’s guest is right that he needs to feel that he has won. I don’t know how to reconcile that with the fact that China’s only getting a 10% tariff and Canada/US are up for 25%.
The only way to get an affordable house is to build it yourself. Unfortunately, land is so expensive, it doesn’t help that much. Don’t expect things to change in the next thousand years.
It’s frustrating that banks don’t seem motivated to negotiate on variable products unless you have a written offer in hand. In my case, a broker told me that they could likely get me a rate of P-1. Before starting the process with them, I tried to get BMO to match or beat that rate, but they kept insisting I come back with a written offer and they could match or beat it. Once I had one, they did improve their offer to beat the broker by 10bps, but it didn’t feel right to take advantage of the broker’s work (despite the non negligible savings on a ~$1M mortgage). In the end, both my spouse and I ended up switching banks, along with fairly reasonably sized investment accounts, all because the bank refused to negotiate upfront. For what it’s worth they seems much more open to negotiating low 5 year fixed rates but we weren’t interested in that.
>> I’ve said for a long time that affordability is most likely to return via a long period of stagnation while incomes catch up
With SFH continually falling as a % of all dwellings, affordability will likely never return to SFH.
Only about 40% of dwellings are SFH, so how can they possibly be affordable to the average household?
And when they are 30% of all dwellings in the future, how would they become affordable to the average household?
Assuming people still want SFH (like 70% do now), SFH will never be “Affordable” to the average household. What is happening is that SFH are affordable now to maybe 25% of the top income earners, and in the future that % will keep shrinking as SFH% falls.
” I’ve said for a long time that affordability is most likely to return via a long period of stagnation while incomes catch up. ”
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yup
Eeek…now I’m really worried about my mortgage. I emailed today to lock in a rate. Will pay to break early and amortize for 5 to avoid the looming chaos. Maybe.
>> Also it is going to be very funny if these two lines cross before the next election
More relevant to look at affordability, as it considers factors like incomes and the economy (rates). Quite clear comparing the Harper vs Trudeau years that Harper years were dramatically better for housing affordability than Trudeau. (Ignore the grey area at right as it’s a projection)
2/3 of the electorate are already homeowners. They don’t want their house to fall much in value, and are more concerned with the overall economy and the CAD$.
The young people that are voting conservative are just fed up with Trudeau and the Liberals in general.
Feb 1 tariffs confirmed https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3lh2muhodcu2r
No, the higher rate they give you the higher their commission up to the benchmark rate from the banks. They have the discretion to buy down your rate through their commission. I think in your case the benchmark rate from the bank dropped so they just passed it on to you. Same thing with bank mortgage specialists, they get full commission at the benchmark rate then they can buy down the rate for their clients via a smaller commission. For branch specialists if they do a full buy down then they get like 600 dollar flat fee or something like that.
Also it is going to be very funny if these two lines cross before the next election
I don’t think you are reading the mood of the electorate right on this one. The new young conservative voters want lower prices. The usual “we want more affordable homes but we don’t want prices to go down” is exactly the sort of Liberal doublespeak they have lost patience for.
Now that is quite different than the reality of how prices behave. I’ve said for a long time that affordability is most likely to return via a long period of stagnation while incomes catch up. It’s just not the messaging that the conservatives are winning votes on.
Guess this is why Realtors have representation agreements. Surprised brokers don’t have something similar. Brokers go to a lot of effort to put a deal together IMO – I wouldn’t screw one over. Either I’m using them or I’m going alone. Maybe I’d better join Reddit 🙂
My broker got me a better rate the morning that I signed. I wasn’t even aware there was a drop. I thought getting the best rate for a given product was their job?
Good interwiew with Ravi Kahlon.
One thing I think that hasn’t been widely recognized is the progress made on rental disputes. Have seen this confirmed by property managers https://storeys.com/ravi-kahlon-housing-minister-interview-2025/
“We went from one of the highest wait times in the country for landlord-tenant disputes to now one the lowest times. We are seeing turnarounds for full decisions within weeks. We’ve see decisions for non-payment of rent done within a couple weeks. And we’re going to take further measures to ensure that both landlords and tenants are protected and decisions can be made in a much better way, focusing on bad actors — sometimes it’s landlords, sometimes it’s tenants.”
Conservatives want to make housing more affordable, which as you know doesn’t necessarily mean lower prices. The goal is improved affordability through higher incomes, lower interest rates, lower taxes and more new home construction .
—— improved economy, higher incomes make homes more affordable.
—— control of government spending and reduced money printing. With the benefit of lowering inflation and mortgage interest rates, making mortgages more affordable/
—— axing regulations, including eco/energy regulations to speed up and increase housing starts.
——-axing taxes like carbon tax which will reduce building costs and help the economy.
I see the left as wanting bigger government, more government spending/borrowing and regulations than the conservatives. Which leads to lousy economy/incomes, higher taxes, higher rates and falling house construction – all of which worsen affordability. This is exactly what we’ve seen thanks to our lefty governments.
Broker needs to be upfront about not able to get the cheapest rates. But it’s a business they signed up for, just like realtors.
More common than you think. Some of the reddit threads on this topic are insane 🙂
What about around 40bps on 1.5M?
I believe only TD and Scotia have the broke channel at the big banks. If you have the ideal credit profile the big banks will have the lowest rates. One of my co workers got a sub 4% 30 year uninsured from CIBC last fall with cash back on top, I think it was 3.92%. obviously it wasn’t the first offer but that’s what they executed at after negotiations.
A very strange take given Poilievre is about to be elected with a major factor being young people angry about high house prices under the Liberals.
They’re not looking for anything, they’re trying to write a report that goes back to the munis.
There isn’t a whole lot of research on the impacts of amalgamation on housing approvals or processes within municipalities.
The promised efficiency gains seem to largely exist on paper. In practice a bureaucracy joining with another one seemingly doesn’t tend to get more efficient.
Ya but they also figure you’d stay. Most leverage is at origination when you fit the ideal credit profile and have multiple banks compete for your business.
Depends on the specifics a bit but ethically I wouldn’t do this. Screwing a broker because a couple bps better rate at the last second is not cool.
Also on BNN-Trump tariffs to start March 1, these jokers really do not know what they’re doing.
Seems like the big banks have really stepped up the competition recently. Back when we bought TD was entirely uninterested in giving us a competitive rate, despite doing all our banking with them.
BNN- Government deferring capital gains increase until January 1, 2026.
Fyi, RBC does not have a broker channel. Questionable if a broker can get you the best possible rate; however, I personally find a lot of value in using a competent and ethical broker.
I’ve phoned them through the TD app three times since August and every time the 3 and 5 yr fixed offers have been very aggressive in relation to market at that particular time.
Kind of makes sense, no? They have almost no cost in terms of branch staff or similar in switching you over through the app.
100%, I think it was a really difficult year last year for mortgage brokers. I had clients that would work with a mortgage broker for six months and then when they go grab the bank draft the bank undercuts the broker. RBC was doing this lots last year and it was very difficult for any broker to compete with rates RBC was offering on certain products majority of last year.
How do you figure th,is channel has the best rates?
Different banks have different approaches to mortgage pricing. Some offer their best rates through brokers, while others give the lowest rates via in-branch advisors or mobile mortgage specialists. It’s best to talk to a broker early to see if they can get the best rate for you. Personally, I’ve found that big banks aren’t always eager to negotiate early. As soon as you pull a bank draft to put a deposit on a house they seem eager to match or try and beat the rate your broker got
Canadians finding homes too expensive in cities where they seek jobs, says housing agency
Since 1990, the percentage of households in Canada moving each year — including within municipalities — has dropped from nearly 17.8 per cent to just 10.1 per cent in 2020.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-prices-population-mobility-1.7446340
We’ve always used a broker. Not sure why, but can never get as good of a rate as the broker can. Contacts obviously but you would think the banks would want to avoid paying a broker.
I’ll be checking out Marko’s recommendation on Mike Grace.
One of our mortgages is up this year. I think there’s going to be a lot of financial uncertainty in the economy and am wanting to lock in. Do brokers get better rates at big banks (TD/RBC…) thank just an individual? I’m wondering if we should contact a broker. I have a broker for house insurance.
The leverage is they want you in a fixed product and they’ve decided at TD for some particular reason to offer the best rates through this channel at the moment (a bank would have a number of channels such as TD mortgage specalists, mortgage brokers, etc.)
Marko, “Convertible to fixed rate mortgage at any time without penalty”… my only concern with this is leverage. Do you find that you get as good of a rate converting with the same FI or are you somewhat “captive audience?” We changed FI because we couldn’t negotiate a decent rate. It’s hard to swallow that a bank that I already deal with and hold a mortgage with will offer a better rate to a new customer than an existing one. Partly I leave out of principle.
And to add, I’ll be educating myself on this, ‘this TD app conversion from variable to fixed mortgage channel”
Unfortunately, not many people will fill you in on inside tricks like this TD app conversion from variable to fixed mortgage channel as it isn’t in their best interest financially. Kind of crucial that who you are working with is both very competent and equally as important ethical.
I’ll check him out Marko – thanks for the info.
Nothing big I can think of, actually the opposite is happening……I can’t disclose anything but another developer is going to be cancelling pre-sale contracts shortly and switching to a rental. Second one in the last few months, this was the first one -> https://www.timescolonist.com/business/condo-project-near-mayfair-likely-to-become-179-unit-rental-building-as-construction-costs-rise-9556383
I’ve stopped advising people to buy pre-sale, more expensive than tangible market now and way too much risk. Not that there is much to buy.
TD, yup P-1. and change.
TD App gives me a # to phone through the app and they are very aggressive on the fixed term rates – they really want you to convert from variable to fixed. Basically the conversion rate is better than a new 3 or 5 year mortgage TD offers through any other channel including broker or branch. If I am bored I’ll phone to see but I am going to stick it out with the variable and see what unfolds this year.
Even thought I have all my banking with TD and multiple mortgages with them residential/commercial I have a broker set this up for me. The service through a broker I find to be better than working with branch people. I use Mike Grace – he posts on here once every three years 🙂
Marko , considering we are in a housing crises with too many buyers and not enough homes are there any big presale launches in the works
Marko, Can I ask where your mortgage is held? And regarding calling in on the app, do you mean actually talking to someone or? We also went variable last summer but don’t think we did as well as you for discount. Have to look but it’s P-.5 or P-.8, with Scotia. Lots of equity, good credit. Since then I’ve seen people talking (maybe on here) P-1. Burns my butt 🙂
I believe it was the elected minister of education, every municipal council and local indigenous bands. Oh ya, and don’t forget parents of children in schools right now. But go with the big blue police authoritarian conspiracy thing, it seems very rational and believable.
Yeah for sure. Annual income takes first position. Having been in the house for over twenty years now we have seen 6% five year fixed rates in the past when the mortgage balance was much higher. When we renew, my Wife’s Provincial Government T-4 will be all that’s necessary. LTV does matter if you want a heloc.
I think I would rather be sheltered in a five year fixed with a $50k emergency heloc in place in these very confusing, uncertain, never before seen times, that are approaching very rapidly. Anyone that owns a principle Residence should be paying very close attention. This isn’t a fairy tale, this is very real.
Don’t think O.B will joining anything , we have a nice place here and don’t need the shit show going on elsewhere.
What “impact” on housing are they looking for (if any)?
For most homeowners, an increase in value of their existing property would be a desirable impact, whereas non-homeowners are looking for lower home prices. It would be interesting to know if this assembly even has an opinion on what a good outcome on house prices post amalgamation would look like.
For example, successfully amalgamation improves efficiencies, streamlines government, improves policing, reduces crime and lowers property taxes. That would also make the city more desirable and that might increase property prices further. Is that OK with the assembly, or are they left-leaning and looking for something to lower house prices?
I realize that the assembly is randomly chosen from volunteers (which aren’t necessarily a random sample). So it may be skewed and not reflect typical residents, but instead typical “volunteers”. .
How tall is the average GH box?
I don’t hold a strong opinion, one way or the other, on the SPLO program; however, it does irk me that an unelected police chief can effect the termination of a democratically elected school board.
Speaking to the citizens assembly on Victoria / Saanich amalgamation next week on housing impacts from amalgamation. Thoughts?
Victoria is unfairly saddled with the high costs of homelessness and drug addiction. But amalgamation works only if more municipalities join. Saanich residents wouldn’t support it if only Saanich residents are sharing in the costs (more property taxes?) of Victoria. That said, it may be a better idea to move more of the services (Police, Fire, etc.) to CRD or a similar organization in the Capital Region.
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Sure. I’ll need somewhere to vent.
Reminds me of when Murdoch said they should brag more about OB’s record on housing. Whatever world you’re living in, it’s not reality.
multiple owner-builder emails every day, I too wonder what triggered all this non-sense
“I am a retired guy looking to build what I anticipate will be an affordable home in the xxxxxxxxx for me in my upcoming retirement years! Of course I came across regulatory requirements for Owner Builders including the exam. Whoa. Fortunately I came across your 2024 YouTube video and offer to provide some assistance. Would appreciate anything you can do to help!
FYI this is the third home I have built over the years in BC, all pre-2014, never had a problem. Not sure what happened to trigger all this nonsense.
Thanks again.”
Would love an ongoing update on this in terms of timelines/costs/etc., in securing the building permit.
This is just one big joke. Who knows about short term but long term housing is going to go through the roof. All government will do is make housing attainable for the top 2% instead of the top 1%. The lot in Oak Bay, new SFH – $2.8 million., each triplex in a triplex – $1.6 million + strata fees.
and top 3% will be able to grab that townhome on the Gorge for $1.4 + GST.
All right a new advisor sitting around going on trips and eating cucumber sandwiches all on the taxpapayers dime . Why hire 1 when the ndp can hire 5 or 6 . Lol
Great another advisor/consultant.
Overdue.
Just remember next trustee election: When the teacher’s union announces their list of endorsements, that is a convenient list of candidates to avoid.
Hopefully that was sarcasm!. Fairfield, Oak Bay, Rockland, James Bay, Fernwood are all liberally sprinkled with single family homes of this height and taller, many of which have been around for 100 years. Our neighbours on one side are just over that height and we are only a few feet below.
It is decidedly non-awful
Will NDP actually do anything? Remains to be seen, but advisor is appointed.
Careful OB, the province is feeling pretty bold right now, they just sacked those crazies known as the SD61 SB trustees.
Looking forward to submitting my OB MM application. The silly thing is that working around variances will make things objectively worse for my neighbours.
There are a number of poison pills in the new OB zoning (In my opinion), so I’m doubtful much will get built. The FSR went up, but setbacks are effectively unchanged, and height isn’t bumped up much. Site coverage isn’t bumped up at all in most cases, so in reality buildings can be slightly higher than they are now, and that’s about it.
I sure wouldn’t want a 9.3-metre building right beside me.
O.B is doing a great job , like others muni’s not much is being built right now. I’m guessing lots approved projects sitting idle. The targets the province brought in is pie in the sky dreaming .
Speaking to the citizens assembly on Victoria / Saanich amalgamation next week on housing impacts from amalgamation. Thoughts?
https://www.victoriasaanich.ca/
A local architect that is designing missing middle projects across greater Victoria was on IG yesterday noted how she spent a good part of her day in meetings with planners/city staff listening to their requests/changes for this submitted projects and ended the stories with “guys, unfortunately I don’t think housing will ever be affordable.”
While staff recommended this project, they are a massive problem in themselves – how on earth does it take a year to get a permit for garden suite in Saanich. That should be a five-business day turnaround.
Sure, and council has consistently demonstrated they prioritize literally every other issue above housing. Staff recommended this be approved.
The letter they wrote to the province is embarrassing and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding about how housing is developed. I mean this statement alone is so ignorant: “In the last 10+ years, one rezoning application was declined”. Just shocking deference of responsibility. This is why housing targets are important. They can write letters until the cows come home but that doesn’t change the fact that they have produced zero results on housing for decades. https://www.oakbay.ca/sites/default/files/2025-01-15Oak-Bay-Letter-Response-to-Minister-Kahlon.pdf
I am reading up on all the municipal bylaws and the little details are interesting from municipality to municipality. One municipality for example, made the FSR 0.65 for multiplexed while guidance from BC is 1.0.
It would have been a lot easier if everyone was forced to implement the exact same thing versus trying to figure out hundreds of pages of differing bylaws.
Other than they are offering me a 5 year fixed 1.46% lower than what they were offering me back in the summer. You can literally phone them every week through the app. Right now you could make a plan if it hits 3.5% or 4.75% (if you are afraid rates might go up) I’ll lock in and if it floats in-between 3.5 and 4.75% every time I phone I’ll stick with variable.
LTV on house doesn’t matter, your cashflow and liquid asset on hand vs your mortgage balance are the things that matter if you don’t want to liquidate in a pinch.
By the time you realize something changed the fixed won’t be as attractive anymore.
I thought you were speaking figuratively. But one of the residents literally brought the devil into the picture
Be good to have a balanced analysis of the issue. On the other side of the story OB wrote the province to say that while it missed the first year target it is on track to exceed the targets based on approvals already issued which amount to 71 new units. OB has also implemented all provincially required policy changes. If a variance is required to build a triplex after accounting for all the mandatory policy changes then this becomes a Council decision. I have no opinion on whether it should or should not be granted – just that it does not have to be under provincial or municipal laws or bylaws. https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/oak-bay-mayor-says-housing-adviser-is-not-needed-131-new-units-in-stream-10082832
Prior to Bill 44 most buildings in Oak Bay had no rentals allowed and age restrictions because tenants and children are the devil. The government abolished those through Bill 44 and guess what happened to day to day life in Oak Bay – nothing.
This duplex will get built and no one will even notice it, but of course it is the devil for the time being.
Mind boggling seeing people getting worked up over this.
Wouldn’t you have missed out on much lower variable rates the first 1/2 of the mortgage? Good decision due to some luck with inflation but not sure about great depending on what the interest rate was.
Personally I went variable in this past summer, already down 2% and now into the low 4s and from my TD App I can phone a # and ask for a quote for a 5 year fixed and they are super competitive on switching you over to fixed. This way you can ride the variable down and switch into a fixed product if anything changes.
My 30 amort is now at 20 years and change.
Get a fixed rate with a HELOC and you can refinance using the the HELOC and turn the pre payment amount into that into a fixed term at a lower rate. Our Fixed Income desk see a real risk of rates and yields rising due to the political uncertainty.
Meanwhile back in housing, Oak Bay has written several whiny letters to the province about how they can’t possibly hit housing targets and they’re already doing everything they can but also they don’t need the help of the province and overall it’s not fair and also this triplex is the devils work and must be killed https://www.vicnews.com/local-news/proposed-triplex-sparks-conern-amongst-oak-bay-residents-7789127
Yes, that report focuses 99% on China and India, commensurate with the source of the problem.
Does seem like most think fixed rates might be bottomed out for now, for whatever that’s worth.
Canada merging with the U.S. is like a couple getting married. She has a $50,000 credit card balance and 200 pairs of shoes, he has a drinking problem, and thinking things will work out fine. Two wrongs don’t make a right. I wouldn’t worry about tariffs, we can buy produce from Mexico. If I can eat blueberries from Chile in January, I think we can find other countries to trade with. Similar tariffs introduced by the U. S. in 1930 set off global retaliatory tariffs that triggered the Great Depression. Let the U.S. pay more for goods that they need , I doubt they’ll choose to live without. The foreign buyer’s tax (that is a ban now) could be viewed as a tariff on our real estate. Trump hasn’t got a clue what he’s doing. Neither does J.T.
Maybe we should take the 51st state offer while we can, before Trump takes that off the table and only lets us be a territory. 🙁
Anyway, I’m thinking I’m going to lock into a 5 year fixed sooner rather than later. My current 1.86% 5 year fixed matures in late October 2025… Way too much uncertainty these days… The central bank’s sixth cut in a row… The fact that 4% is cheap money in reality. I think if I act now, I can blend, along with my discount rate, I should get sub 4% for a 5 year fixed rate.
Keep in mind, I’m below 10% LTV on the asset. Different strokes for different folks. My strategy might not be the best.
Are you honestly suggesting a retaliatory trade war with the largest super power on the planet?
And it’s their responsibility to patrol their side of the border for people entering illegally, it’s not our responsibility. We patrol our side for anyone trying to come into Canada. That is our jurisdiction. Once someone enters the U.S. whether legally or illegally, only the U.S. customs officials have any power to interdict and take action.
Dude, these people don’t just walk across the Peace Arch.
The U.S. is 100% responsible for its own border. Canada is 100% responsible for our border. When entering the U.S. one is screened by U.S. customs officers. I have no idea how Canada can control what enters the U.S. Can we control when someone flies from Canada to Belgium? Then travels to other countries in Europe. Someone should tell Trump this.
Yes. But to be fair the cost should be 50/50 for each neighbour.
“This statement is tautological and true for all means of smuggling into the US.” No idea the answer for this, but doesn’t the US have some responsibility for its own borders? Don’t want to stir ( or as it happens, expand) a border war but where is the cooperation?
An older, retired, very wealthy, long time friend of the family is currently going through the process of having a $40k USD simulator installed in his garage. Apparently you can golf any course in the world.
https://www.turfteamlandscaping.com/golf-simulators-and-putt-view-pricing/
Kind of looks like this…
This statement is tautological and true for all means of smuggling into the US. How could the amount seized be anything other than some fraction of the total amount smuggled? And it’s a small fraction, otherwise there wouldn’t be a problem in the US.
Currently most fentanyl in the US is coming from Mexico or direct from China. A relatively tiny amount is coming from Canada.
Cracking down on fentanyl in Canada isn’t going to make a big difference in the US, but it will benefit Canada, so worth doing anyhow. If it happens to also cheer up the Mango Mussolini that’s just a side benefit.
“No evidence that fentanyl is coming into the US from Canada in any significant amount. It’s a red herring. That said, some security theatre may be just enough to appease them and give them a win.”
Truth is we don’t have statistics on the actual quantities coming across the border, only the amount seized and because the Canadian border is not well monitored, the amount seized is likely a fraction of the actual amount. The point is, if you are trying to deter thieves from entering your house it makes little sense to fortify the front door, while leaving the back door open.
>> No evidence that fentanyl is coming into the US from Canada in any significant amount. It’s a red herring
The DEA have identified China—>Canada as part of the route that fentanyl (and precursor chemicals) gets into the USA, such as this 2020 DEA declassified report.
It is a route from china to Canada. Obviously much of it stays in Canada, but some gets to USA (e.g. through the well known smuggling routes via Mohawk reservation as shown on the DEA map below). And this is precursor chemicals that are further processed in Canada.
We all know that fentanyl is a huge problem in Canada, and I think almost everyone supports more actions of all kinds to stop it coming from places like China.
DEA report: https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20%20Fentanyl%20Flow%20in%20the%20United%20States_0.pdf
The Fed held, that’s the more important part.
Which arises from America’s reliance on Canadian energy imports:
https://economics.td.com/ca-canada-us-trade-balance
And as previously mentioned, there would be no easy way to substitute cheap heavy Canadian crude with with another source, including domestic supply, which would require expensive upgrades to America’s refineries.
Kudo’s to trump I think he’s playing his hand well. We don’t have a politician in Canada that’s up for task .
Canada has a large and growing surplus of trade with USA. It has grown a lot in the last five years.
**** So the USA is right to be concerned about this. *****
Of course the USA has trade deficits with lots of countries. But it makes sense for a country to be targeting at least balanced trade with other countries.
The USA official stats show this https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:~:text=Canada%20Trade%20%26%20Investment%20Summary&text=Exports%20were%20%24427.7%20billion%3B%20imports,up%2022%20percent%20from%202012.
“ Canada Trade & Investment Summary
U.S. goods and services trade with Canada totaled an estimated $908.9 billion in 2022. Exports were $427.7 billion; imports were $481.2 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Canada was $53.5 billion in 2022.
U.S. goods exports to Canada in 2022 were $356.5 billion, up 15.1 percent ($46.8 billion) from 2021 and up 22 percent from 2012. U.S. goods imports from Canada totaled $436.6 billion in 2022, up 22.2 percent ($79.3 billion) from 2021, and up 35 percent from 2012. U.S. exports to Canada account for 17.3 percent of overall U.S. exports in 2022. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada was $80.1 billion in 2022, a 68.0 percent increase ($32.4 billion) over 2021. “
IMO, the attempt to change America’s balance of trade is a cog in “Trump’s attitudes and policy preferences regarding the Western Hemisphere. Indeed, his focus on that arena is so intense and stridently nationalist that it is not too early to wonder if there will be a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine…The principal feature of an emerging Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine is an insistence on total U.S. control of security and economic affairs in the Western Hemisphere – especially the northern portion from Venezuela to the Arctic.”
-Will There Be a Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine? by Ted Galen Carpenter Posted on January 28, 2025
No evidence that fentanyl is coming into the US from Canada in any significant amount. It’s a red herring. That said, some security theatre may be just enough to appease them and give them a win.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/lutnick-says-mexico-canada-can-avoid-tariffs-with-border-action
This article points out that there are two separate tariff deadlines.
Feb 1 : 25% across the board, cancelled based on action reducing fentanyl and illegal immigration. Hard to imagine those being put in while Canada is acting and discussing those issues.
April 1: unspecified across the board tariffs based on trade issues. These are the ones they are just “studying” now. Nothing will happen there until April 1 at soonest.
As I’ve stated I don’t think any of these are going to actually happen, though I expect there will be dramatic headlines and short-term threats and uncertainty like there were for Columbia and USA recently.
Yeah, it feels like Canada has been sent on a snipe hunt. Depending on who is asked in the administration, tariffs are a negotiating tactic, a source of revenue, or a protectionist policy, and sometimes all three of those things. Zero common sense imo.
…or, as I mentioned, a legal justification to abrogate a legally binding treaty.
Ya, trump just wants to throw on some tariffs , the border and drugs is just a head deek.
Is not “National Security” just the line needed for USA to abrogate the new NAFTA Treaty without legal repercussions?
It seems as though the true purpose of import tariffs is to (attempt) to adjust America’s balance of trade deficit by limiting imports.
Or… why not just do the simple thing and do what is necessary to stop fentanyl from coming into Canada through our porous ports? This is all the US is asking for and like most of the Trump policies, it’s common sense.
I Hope we avoid more handouts. That just sounds like insanity.
In addition to letting businesses write off Canadian investments we should try to figure out how to give preferences to individuals doing the same.
I’m left wing but even so I can see the hand outs are bad.
Putting tariffs on U.S. goods is insanity, we already have a tariff thanks to the weak Canadian dollar. I see Trudeau and Singh are conspiring to roll out CERB-style handouts to people and businesses affected by the tariffs. We should be 2 trillion in debt soon. Talk about buying votes as a desperate measure.
Nice to c the cut in rates , let’s keep on going . We have a long way to go for a 60 cent dollar. Canadas real estate is here to save the day with a QE response to trumps tariff bluster , I luv it
Well if mortgage rates dip below 4% in the next few months we might lock in for 7 years. Our other mortgage was locked in for 7 years and that turned out to be a great decision.
The Canadian economy is either on the brink of recession or already in one, according to Desjardins and Oxford Economics.
Due to excessive level of household debt, especially mortgage debt. Canadians owe more than the country produces with a household debt-to-GDP ratio at 102%. The debt per working-age-person (15 to 64) in Canada is $85,000 (US dollars).
There could be an opposite impact, Canada’s cost of borrowing might go up even though the BoC is dropped because the difficulty Canada will have selling bonds during a recession (so bond rates go up). To counter that and to float a lower BoC rate they will likely purchase our own bonds (providing Cdn banks liquidity to lend a lower rates) basically QE. However, this will lead to rapid decline in the Cdn dollar and spike inflation. The problem with the last decade with the budget will balance itself folks and the war on productivity, Canada has very limited capacity to take these actions without major pain. Probably some of those advising the US executive know.
One of our mortgages is up for renewal. In what I’ve read if thé US does the tariffs we will have some kind of recession. I also read that during recession BOC tends to reduce bank rate to deal with it. So my question is – do mortgage rates always follow the BOC rate? Or is it possible if there’s some kind of economic disaster that BOC rate could keep going down but mortgage rates jump higher? Economics is not my area (obviously).
Well I do like the idea of taking steps to counter the negative impacts by say allowing businesses to write off 100% of Canadian investments. Also we have to be careful not to only focus on money. There could be other reasons to take a more aggressive response (he suggests the two things are money and emotions – not sure that’s right).
Bank rate cut today by 25 points and is now at 3%.
The USA has had to cull hundreds of thousands of birds due to Avian Flu and that has caused the price of eggs to increase and prices will stay high into the immediate future.
https://youtu.be/AjdaAFWxYY4?si=o6wllgFKEOTJRuYK
As for Oil, America is the largest producer and refiner of oil but it will always have to import oil.
https://youtu.be/_l1cj_AyR1E?si=BPBqIhWl0g2o0JgA
Cost of a dozen eggs in the U.S. is $3. Places like New York pay closer to $10. Maybe local bird flu outbreaks have skewed prices in some areas. Food in the U.S. is generally cheaper than Canada.
US elections are not “called” by the President or anyone else for that matter. That’s what happens in Canada and other parliamentary democracies. US elections are mandated by the Constitution on fixed dates and as well are carried out by the states, nor the federal government.
What actually are we defending? Basically our land and the right to own it. I’m in favor of mandatory military service. However the length of service would depend on the individual’s participation in productive endeavours. People involved in advanced education or full time employment shouldn’t be required to interrupt their lives, maybe 2 weeks a year or weekends. Idle criminals with multiple offences would be required to serve several years. Our current penal system is inadequate and ineffective. That would motivate people to be productive.
Trevor’s recommendation is not to retaliate except for some targeted political swings (no more US liquor for example) and focus on dismantling our internal trade barriers and bring investment back to the country to try to counteract the negative impact. That’s not the emotional response, but probably the rational one. It’s a fight we can’t win, so might as well put all focus on boosting our own economy and trade with other neighbours and hope the americans get tired of paying the tariffs eventually.
Fatty animals do best in arctic conditions. Good point Frank.
Our military needs to pivot over time away from NATO and overseas missions and towards national defence. The US is no longer a reliable partner and could become an adversary at some point
Heard on the radio today that something like 70% of the military are overweight (I think the word obese was used). That’s great, they’ll be perfectly suited to arctic conditions.
Well I just listened to that entire Herle Burly podcast that Léo posted and now I’m not so sure about the tit for tat approach. But I don’t like his last idea to just manage the man by appeasing him endlessly. Surely there must be a middle way.
Like we increase military spending to 2% (which is good anyway imo) and put all that in the arctic. I don’t know smarter strategic things like that. But then as the guest in the podcast points out that might be a major PR problem.
I don’t know … I’m going to yoga lol
The cost of a dozen eggs in America $13.00
In Canada $4.00
As for retaliatory tariffs- let’s get cracking!
Yes we do have to protect our national manufactures , and tariffs will do just that . Jobs for Canadians
Many counter-tariffs will hurt us more. But we do have to fight back in a targeted way. Should be looking at reducing/suspending US patent rights in Canada. That’s one area they stand to lose more than Canada as US IP is so much greater than Canada’s
First round of the trade negotiations.
https://youtube.com/shorts/RzkMF26e0zk?si=yDup-oxEDaSWp78P
Yeah I don’t think the goal should be to harm the US economy. Trying to do that could very well harm us more. But at the same time we can’t just capitulate. Have to send a strong message.
This discussion with Trevor Tombe on tariffs was interesting. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-herle-burly/id1280218816?i=1000685514861
“ it is an unfortunate reality that we find ourselves in, that our ability to actually, through retaliation, harm the US economy in a meaningful way that would lead to a change in policy by the US administration is potentially near or close to zero”
It’s not that imperfect but it isn’t fully level – especially one room to the next if that makes sense. Purpose is to avoid carpet and still get nice durable floor. Where planks would be difficult due to not level.
Yes, in theory. Short of World War 3, it is unlikely, especially if he starts the war. At that point, we may be in the second civil war.
Another way he can try to stay in power is to pull the Putin trick: DJT running as VP with with JD Vance as the presidential candidate and be the shadow president (assuming they win the reelection). Or, JD Vance could say he is not able to perform his duties (after being elected) and resign, and DJT becomes the President.
The constitution says one cannot be “elected” as President more than twice but there are a few loopholes to be President more than twice without being elected.
How is it imperfect Dee? I’ve done a double garage in the epoxy coating with the chips you sprinkle on. It’s not going to cover differences in depth, as in the floor has chips or isn’t level. You’d want to use a self-leveling compound for that.The chips mask some things but the floor coating alone won’t. You can sand concrete. My son did his garage. It was smooth as can be after. What’s the goal?
Anyone have experience with epoxy floors? to cover concrete basement floor that is imperfect.
No, 2 bed/2 bath corner (also with two parking) sold last year for $980k.
Please post groot. Sounds like good listening. I liked the game theory bullying video too.
There is a silver lining.
This morning I was listening to a flat earth conspiracy theorist explain how tariffs work.
@Marko, is this the first water view 2 bed/2bath unit at the new Dockside for less than $1M?
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27765290/708-363-tyee-rd-victoria-victoria-west
I don’t spend any time worrying about what Trump might do. Odds are high that he’ll do nothing in the end.
Mark Twain got it right in this quote …
“Worrying is like paying a debt you don’t owe. I have spent most of my life worrying about things that have never happened.”
Yeah, Canada can just turn that on because we have invested in East/West infrastructure, developed a culture of investment and haven’t been complacent because of the convenience and ease of access to the US market…Oh wait…. At least we adapt quickly and don’t get bogged in years of consultations that cause massive cost escalations that tie up capital until they quit…Oh wait…. Governments here at all levels foster entrepreneurship with sensible taxation and regulations… Oh wait…. Damn
It’s a nice sunny day go for a walk along the water 🙂 Trump is just one person and he likes attention.
Have you played before?
It’s kinda hard to talk about the tariffs (subject of this article) without talking about trump.
Anyway I do hope you’re right Marko 🙂
And Elon will be Goebbels running X for Trump? Common.
Rodger. I was having dinner with a dual American/Canadian citizen who knows a lot about American law. They said there’s a way to get around it if there’s an emergency. Is that incorrect?
I agree, too much business between the two countries to go into a huge trade war and business takes precedent over pretty much everything else. Just look at Ukraine, civilians/children being killed and Ukraine honoured the contract to pump Russian gas through Ukraine until the contract ran out and EU countries continued to accept it. I am sure the “EU cares” about civilians being killed, but they care more about their homes being heated. That is the unfortunately reality of human nature.
My cousin works for a Israel pharmaceutical company with an office based in the EU and they just doing more business than ever with Russia, they just keep it on the down low.
I am more concerned about lack of family physicians in Victoria, homelessness, insane price of housing, etc., than what Trump said today.
Under the US constitution, he is eligible to be president for only 4 years unless the 22nd amendment of the constitution is changed. A new amendment will be virtually impossible because it requires 2/3rd of the votes in Congress (both HoR & Senate) as well as 3/4th of the States agreeing to it. Many senators even within the Republican Party won’t vote for him.
Maggie is right. People thought the same thing about Hitler (not my problem bc not in my yard). The tumour spreads.
Marko , I agree , if it has nothing to do with me I couldn’t care less. Trump has gotten into everybody’s head and it’s a nothing burger.
Why does it have to impact my life in order for me to care?
What exactly happened during Trump’s first term that impacted your life?
Id rather have a bunch of euros 🙂
lol
Golf game looks pretty damn good for someone his age…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb9b8rYhII
LOL hope you got lots of USD stacked in the bank.
I hope what comes out of this is far better trade relations with non US nations. That would have a lot of long term benefit.
That is likely the worst way to deal with a bully like trump. One has to understand Game Theory when dealing with a bully like Trump.
https://youtu.be/G0ncWlYbIOA?si=DlQwZ8h9yORdub6n
Trump can drop dead tomorrow from a massive heart attack. He’s a prime candidate.
Sure flattery but that is hardly poking a bear. That’s more like stroking the bear.
While I was definitely joking below, I disagree with this. Trump is actually incredibly susceptible to flattery. Multiple examples during his first term.
I know you’re joking but I don’t think poking the bear is a good strategy with Trump. Everything has to be business – he gets that and respects it. Nothing personal just business. Or he will take revenge if he thinks it’s personal.
20% if he was an average 78 year old American male. However he is a non smoker, non drinker, rich, married, and has access to top notch medical care. All factors associated with longer than average life.
On the negative side he is chubby, doesn’t exercise much and reportedly eats a crap diet. However those “risk factors” pretty much describe the average American male so are probably already implicit in the 20% chance of dying.
I propose a preemptive strike by these three parties. Hit Trump where it hurts most.
The once disputed Hans Island (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Island) between Canada and Greenland can be renamed:
Trump’s Tiny Hans Island
Honestly I feel that there is a destructive streak in human nature that has to do with realizing our own mortality. It’s the whole – if I can’t smoke none she can’t either phenomenon. People want to destroy because they’re jealous that they’re fading away. That the earth and life will continue on without them. That’s just my armchair folk psychology that helps me to understand what’s going on.
I don’t think Trump cares if they wear thin. He’s doing his own thing.
Fred trump lived till 93 , so Donald has the benefit of good genes
That’s right Marko. He can’t live forever – though certainly he will die trying.
Dee, we have 8 more years of trump messing with the world . I’m sure his tariff threats will wear thin
Given his age there is a 1/4 chance +/- he dies during his term so him engineering something in his mid 80s not sure. Age will catch up to him as well.
Trump is just getting started. There’s no way he wants to call it then ride for 4 years. He wants to pulverize and re-build to his own vision. A new America! At the end of 4 years just watch – there will be a variety of emergencies that will enable him to refuse to call another election. He’s engineering those emergencies right now!
Anyway, Canada and Denmark and Greenland should become best friends. We should make an arctic pact for joint security. We need to increase resources to the arctic fast. I can see trump trying to pluck that territory away as though he’s taking candy from a baby.
Trump could call the threat of a tariff a win come Feb 1. He has gotten the attention of countries that have started implementation of changes.
He wants to call a win within a month of his presidency which he can ride on for the next year or two.
Trump stopped all federal aid. The US will be deep in recession this year. If he’s willing to make his own people suffer like that of course he doesn’t care about ours. Expect 25% tariffs effective February 1. And that’s just the starting point — a show or strength to get leverage. I really hope we have leadership that can respond with equally drastic measures. It cannot waiver at all because if it does they will ask for more and more and more.
Leo- Thank you for the smiley face/sad face cartoon that demonstrated the advantages of living in isolation. Also the pleasures of riding a bike up a hill on a cold windy, rainy day (a real character builder). Maybe deep down you desire to leave your overcrowded, miserable life to enjoy a life of online isolation with a bunch of nameless, faceless robots. Don’t show the cartoon to your wife, she might get the hint.
With that said, it should also be known that the Prime Minister of Canada along with all of the Provincial Premiers of Canada with the exception of Alberta don’t work at all no matter what day of the week it is.