Growth in Victoria
New population data came out last week, and it showed that though growth was down from the last two years, Victoria grew by 1.7% in 2024, still substantially faster than what we were used to before 2012. National growth is set to slow sharply in 2025 and the following years, but it remains to be seen how much of that will translate locally.
To no surprise, much of the growth is still concentrated out in the western communities, but last year that growth dropped a little in Langford, Colwood, and Sooke. Maybe noise (the population figures are just estimates after all), but it seems Victoria at least has made some progress in allowing more newcomers to find housing, with the growth rate increasing from the 5 year to the 3 year average to the 2024 level. The other municipalities in general grew about as slowly as they always have (or even shrank like Oak Bay and North Saanich). This is by design, as core municipalities explicitly plan to grow much slower than regional demand by restricting development.
Migration data was also updated, though only up to the 2023 year. Though some of our biggest raw inflows outside of Vancouver are from small towns in BC, Calgary, and Edmonton, those places also have a lot of outflows of Victorians to them. Once you calculate net flows between cities, here are the top sources of new Victorians.
And conversely, where the most Victorians are leaving to on net. No surprise, Victorians are moving up island and to cheaper markets.
A notable absence from the chart of net inflows? Much from Albertan cities. Though Edmonton made it to 9th highest in terms of net inflows, that was less than a hundred people. Again I should note there’s noise in these estimates, but it’s interesting to see the net flows so low from Alberta (only 7 net from Calgary). From someone who was around for housing discussions in 2007, back then ham wasn’t something you put on a sandwich but stood for Hot Albertan Money and was actively discussed as a demand factor for housing. Not anymore.
It’s not because Albertans wouldn’t still like to move here, but the cost of doing so has radically increased since those days. Hard to imagine now, but 10 years ago, Calgary prices were actually about the same as they were in Victoria, and Edmontonians only had to pony up an extra 20% ($80k) to make the move. Today the Victoria premium over Calgary is near 50%, and we are more than twice as expensive as Edmonton. In fact when taking into account inflation, Edmonton prices haven’t budged in nearly 20 years.
Sure, Edmonton incomes have stagnated in that period, only keeping up with inflation while incomes in the rest of Canada outpaced it. In 2007 their incomes were 20% ahead of the national average, while today they are merely matching it. But that doesn’t mean there’s been a shortage of demand for housing. The population of Edmonton doubled since 2007, but housing supply kept up partly due to sprawl and partly due to surprisingly progressive policies on multifamily housing.
Also the weekly market activity:
| January 2025 |
Jan
2025
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Sales | 31 | 100 | 188 | 341 | |
| New Listings | 103 | 369 | 663 | 960 | |
| Active Listings | 2114 | 2202 | 2292 | 2140 | |
| Sales to New Listings | 30% | 27% | 28% | 36% | |
| Sales YoY Change | — | +32% | +20% | +23% | |
| New Lists YoY Change | — | +7% | +21% | +19% | |
| Inventory YoY Change | +1% | +6% | +9% | +23% | |
| Months of Inventory | 6.3 | ||||
We’re starting to get a slightly better picture of the market as we get back to normal early spring activity. So far, both sales and new lists are starting out pretty healthy, up around 20% over this time last year.
It will be interesting to see if the large volume of frustrated listers from last year that ended up pulling their listings rather than accepting a lower price will come back this year. Setting aside the migration variable for the time being, it’s likely that we’ll see an increase in sales activity this year simply due to lower rates. That leaves the question of whether there will be sufficient new listings to keep inventory stable or increasing. So far in January we’re on track to keep inventory growing (albeit slowly) compared to last year.
I knew a fella named Jim that lived in the same trailer in Malibu
Sooke will lose the battle at the bylaw level, but win the war at the permitting obstruction level.
They could set up mobile homes at the beach.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-canada-likely-cut-rates-by-25bps-give-tariff-impact-analysis-2025-01-27/
“ Currency swap markets are betting on an 83% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada will most likely trim its key benchmark rate by 25 basis points this week and is widely expected to offer an analysis on the impact of potential U.S. tariffs‘
Marko, I know you’ve read it, but here’s part of what Ravi is stating in the official letter to Sooke:
“If the District of Sooke does not alter the zoning bylaw in accordance with this notice, I, as Minister of Housing and Municipal Affairs, intend, with the approval of the Lieutenant Governor in Council, to make a ministerial order for the District of Sooke that enacts or amends a bylaw referred to in section 479 of the Local Government Act to permit, in relation to an area, the use and minimum density of use required to be permitted under section 481.3 of the Local Government Act. The ministerial order may also, in relation to the area, establish the siting, size, dimension, location or type of housing units required to be permitted under section 481.3 of the Local Government Act.”
As I read it, basically do it or we’ll do it for you?
I’ve looked for this before but don’t think there is anything unless you have a Bloomberg terminal.
This one is out of date: https://www.m-x.ca/en/trading/tools/canadian-interest-rate-expectations
They talk about replacing it with CORRA futures, but I don’t think the value of those are available anywhere online.
The Victoria hand project is part of a worldwide initiative to produce hand prosthetics, and they work well, and are moving towards breaking down to even support missing digits on a hand, so the hand can function more normally. Attaching the brain of a robot to that wouldn’t seem that far out to me.
Not so much consequences but intended action on behalf of BC, if I read it right.
Same letter sent to View Royal, but I don’t see any consequences laid out on these letters.
Sooke Live Utube:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsIfYFoQAKWvQz6NML6Z8dA
If anyone is looking for something to do, Sooke as one of maybe two (or few) holdouts on Bill44. There’s a letter from Prov BC, Ravi Kehlon, advising that they are moving ahead with their legal with the intent to fix the issue. Live link is in the website / agenda. Starting now.
https://sooke.ca/municipal-hall/agenda-minutes/
I wanted to but couldn’t come up with anything funny that wasn’t also astronomically ignorant…. Well, I guess I at least brought Musk back in… 🙂
Sorry, not going to touch that one. You win!!!!
Sure. But all I had to do to create a human was knock up my Wife…And not drop 60k on a Tesla.
“I think the main advantage is we are cordless, and come with an internal battery.”
…sorta like a Tesla. And humans spend a lot of time recharging
I think the main advantage is we are cordless, and come with an internal battery that never needs to be plugged in. we are also waterproof and can free dive 702′ on a single breath, and climb to altitudes of 26,000′.
The whole human machine is actually pretty amazing even though the processing speeds are low.
Before we make significant thematic investments we conduct extensive due diligence with leading experts around the world. One of the things that’s been reiterated over and over again is that when it comes to robotics, mimicking the movement of the human hand is extremely difficult and is likely still at least 25 years out.
Vicre, ya looks like new listings and sales are tracking closely. It will interesting to c if that continues. Been a lot chatter about new listings exploding, so time will tell .
Might even be tough at 1.5 when Oakview sold for less and that is a house built in the 2000’s. I am assuming the suite isn’t legal but has it’s own meter? I almost think these guys would have been better off not doing the whole suite thing in the flip and went with a nice updated home with a double garage. The garage as currently configured cannot be used by the owner if the suite is rented out.
Most people wanting suites seemed to be capped out at the 1.3 range, people with more means generally aren’t really looking at these 70’s suited boxes with ~1200/1300 sqft of living area for the Owner.
I don’t think it was the programmers, because they (or should I say we) understand how hard it is. It’s the investment chasers and futurist gurus who were pushing it.
They already are. I see them all the time with their Airpods in each ear, having what looks to be a very serious conversation with someone that is not there, while at the same time using their two available hands to do whatever it is they are supposed to be doing onsite.
Common misconception.
Ironic: Leo, the proponent of increased density, wants more space.
Surprised to see new list so strong, wasn’t the new list last year strong also early on in the year?
In some damaged properties in California, the hillsides have become unstable due to the loss of vegetation and current rainfall. It might be nearly impossible to rebuild in some locations. I’ve heard the rebuilding in Jasper has not been going well. Permitting is a nightmare. A good comparison might be the rebuilding in Hawaii. Haven’t heard how that is going but there is no comparison between Lytton and Hawaii, or California. One thing is certain, it is going to take years and people have to get on with their lives. Some communities will never be the same.
I have a feeling when it comes to the richest residential encvlaves in the world the houses won’t be arriving from a factory.
“They won’t be able to issue permits in a reasonable amount of time, let alone re-building of the homes. How are things going in Lytton with permits?”
“Secondly, the US had 1,500,000 housing starts last year. How many homes burned down in LA? How will 12,000 homes lead to a huge technological change? Is the private sector leaving money on the table on the other 1,500,000 by not using technology to build faster/cheaper?”
Marko, don’t get me wrong, your points are valid, however your looking at the future through the paradigm of the past. Comparing Lytton to LA may not be the best example but I get where you are coming from. I don’t have any more answers to this than you, but I do know that if it can’t be done in one of the richest residential enclaves in the world, then I will concede I am early to this party. But I do expect technology to play a huge part in the rebuild.
I’ll pick on building permits since you mentioned it. Google Earth can provide realistic models of the neighborhood as they existed before the fires in 3D, so building permits could be expedited based on this information. As long as you are replacing what was there, no building permit needed and no fees paid. Just start building 24/7/365.
It was just “awkward hand movements”. LOL
They won’t be able to issue permits in a reasonable amount of time, let alone re-building of the homes. How are things going in Lytton with permits?
Secondly, the US had 1,500,000 housing starts last year. How many homes burned down in LA? How will 12,000 homes lead to a huge technological change? Is the private sector leaving money on the table on the other 1,500,000 by not using technology to build faster/cheaper?
Don’t get me wrong I’m bullish on AI. Has already revolutionized programming, and I think we’re about 2-5 years away from the time when my programming skill will be fully obsoleted by AI. Also looking forward to the humanoid robots and as soon as one can do the cleaning and laundry I’m buying it. But the reality is white collar work is much more at risk of automation right now than blue collar.
Indoor space.
Not sure I can buy a Tesla anytime soon after seeing Elon’s Nazi salute.
The mechanical technology of self driving car, as point out, has been around for many years, the missing piece was the intelligence. We are there!!
“I can’t imagine a day where an AI robot plumber knocks on your door and comes in to fix anything.”
Not sure why it would be knocking on your door. General purpose AI infused robots, will simply go from task to task. Right after it walks the dog, changes grandpas diaper and cuts the lawn.
Do you mean indoor space, or size of the lot?
“Complex physical jobs like plumbing will be some of the absolute last to be automated. The irony is that in the past the programmers said that all the truck and cab drivers will soon lose their jobs due to self driving cars. 10 years later it turns out driving a truck is much harder to automate than people thought, but programming is easier to automate and those programming jobs are at risk while the lower skill physical job look to be a lot more secure.”
Complexity is precisely the playground of AI, or more precisely AGI. We have reached an inflection point in humanity. For the first time in the history of this planet, humans are no longer the most intelligent being. And to put a finer point on it, today is the dumbest AGI will ever be and AGI is on an exponential curve.
I think it will be interesting to see how the wild fires in LA will unleash a technological change in the way we build houses.
Interesting about what AI jobs can or can not do? AI can design a 30 storey office building but can’t fix a tap.
I can’t imagine a day where an AI robot plumber knocks on your door and comes in to fix anything.
But that doesn’t mean that some plumbers (and everyone else) won’t be out of work.
AI and tech advances in general make existing plumbers more productive, which can put other plumbers out of work. Maybe in ten years auto driving is the norm so the plumber is getting chauffeured around, which saves him a lot of time between visits to make phone calls, and order parts etc. So he ends up seeing 4 clients per day when he used to see three. And we need 25% less plumbers to do the same work. Same applies to most professions. It isn’t that there will be a robot doing your job, it is that tech/AI will help your competition do work faster and there’ll be fewer of your profession needed.
At $1.5 you would have new neighbors, lovely people with two kids. House works, but the price not so much. Very nice renovation in the context of a for profit renovation.
Complex physical jobs like plumbing will be some of the absolute last to be automated. The irony is that in the past the programmers said that all the truck and cab drivers will soon lose their jobs due to self driving cars. 10 years later it turns out driving a truck is much harder to automate than people thought, but programming is easier to automate and those programming jobs are at risk while the lower skill physical job look to be a lot more secure.
Sure the trajectory is there but I’ll be 6′ under by the time a robot is replacing my hot water tank. I am all for new tech, I was using Tesla’s AP1 autopilot 10 years ago on the Pat Bay Hwy but one has to be realistic at the same time. Tesla keeps giving me 30 day trials of FSD and while there has been progress in 10 years it hasn’t been mind bending whatsoever.
? I don’t think we have anything out front.
What do you think, the $50k drop gonna make a difference? I still feel like market value is closer to $1.5M on that one.
We love it. Sometimes wish we had a bit more space, but otherwise it’s a great spot.
On a brighter note, land if finite (at least on this planet). Land value is the one wild card where AI/Robotics won’t have an impact. Desirable property will always command a premium and I don’t see a future where this is not the case.
Sorry guys, but I think you are missing the point. I am not saying next week or even next year, but the trajectory is clear, there will be AI/Robotic plumbers. In fact very little if any human labour will be used in the construction industry.
I think the question most relevant to this chat board is, if AI/Robotics replaces most if not all human labour, what does that do the overall cost of construction. Let’s start with the question of what percentage of current construction costs are considered labour? And I’m not just talking about the humans physically inside the house banging nails and running 14/2 wire. Embedded labour is a component of very piece of material brought to the site. Think of the labour to make that 2×4 from the standing tree in the forest to the final nail driven by the red seal carpenter?
Is it 50%, 60%, 70%? My guess is higher, much higher.
Removing human labour from the chain of production will drive down the overall cost of construction by a percentage that is yet to be determined. Over time it will continue to be lowered.
Now you tell me what that does to the overall market?
“Trying to find a plumber to descale a tankless water heater, they don’t even return your call“
That is a dead simple job, do it yourself after watching youtube.
The plumber of tomorrow will be a position where someone works hard and performs their duties diligently, but receives little to no recognition or appreciation.
The plumber of tomorrow will be a “tankless job”.
When I built my house I went with a classic natural gas hot water tank. Two of my close friends non-stop problems with the tankless water heaters. Problem is you are mixing electronics with plumbing and then plumbers prefer not to deal with it.
This is my experience across a lot of professions and not just tradespeople. Apparently, everyone will be unemployed due to AI but still won’t have doctors, nurses, tradespeople, BC Ferries workers, etc.
Only abundance will be realtors 🙂
Is there a live number that shows at what % the market is pricing in a cut before every cut? I see 25/31 economist are predicting 0.25% cut this week but is there something else to look at on a daily basis to see if the odds are moving up/down?
Leo, I was showing the place next to you this weekend…is that you placing obstacles so people can’t park infront of your home 🙂
btw, what a nice spot.
If you try to find a plumber to descale a tankless water heater, they don’t even return your call. I’ll leave that pun opportunity out there for anyone who wants to field it.
Plumbers can make $1000 a day, but it’s physical work. It’s not rocket science. That’s why houses are so expensive. At $400 to replace a toilet, you don’t need many calls. It took me an hour to replace a toilet.
Could be the next money maker for UVic. Add an option for a minor in plumbing to every degree.
Bobby k , thanks man , I have always been a cup half full and like to see the positive. Too young yet to enjoy my golden years, retirement is a recipe to go broke, gotta stay in the game .
With all these engineers and Phd plumbers must be an abundance of plumbers out there.
My plumber has a Phd in computer science (really). Not displacement, this was years ago and he just preferred plumbing.
Tbone has it right.
Marko, my plumber has an engineering degree from UBC, it wont take long with AI displacement for people to figure out there is money to be made in the trades, not generally serious money but solid money.
Thursty, for the sake of your mental health and finances I hope the housing market hangs in there, given your housing anxiety it doesnt seem like your enjoying your golden years.
Frank, immigrants also have babies. While the term “baby boom” typically refers to the increase in births from the mid-1940s to the mid-1960s, primarily among the native-born population. Immigrants with families also played a role shaping the demographics.
A native born 10 year old in 1960 would be a baby boomer as would a 10 year old from a new immigrant family to Canada.
Will have a lot of unemployed young people while it will be impossible to find someone to replace a hot water tank.
“Canada has been left with a youth dividend, as opposed to many other countries, that in time will prove to be a major asset.”
That assumption runs counter to the notion of imbedded AI into every aspect of our lives including Robotics. In other words, having a lot of unemployed young people will be a cost to the economy for a very long time. Time will tell but the trajectory appears obvious.
Good to c sales are still running strong, and looking forward to wed rate cut . The future is looking bright
Month to date activity:
Sales: 307 (+19% vs same time last year)
New lists: 929 (+21%)
Inventory: 2347 (+11%)
They call it the “baby boom”, because the population increased due to an increased birth rate, not immigration.
Canada’s population grew by 3.2 million or 8.4 percent since mid-2021. Since late 2015, it expanded by 5.6 million or 15.7 percent. This lead to many problems with housing and increased costs for public services.
However, unlike the baby boom era, over 95 percent of that growth came from people coming from abroad, many aged between 15 to 24. That has had a dramatic change in the age pyramid in a short period of time.
Canada has been left with a youth dividend, as opposed to many other countries, that in time will prove to be a major asset.
With the upcoming US Tariff on Canadian goods which would likely lead to less exports to the USA it might be time for Canada to perform inspections and repairs on both the Ambassador and Peace bridges on those traffic lanes for goods entering into the USA..
Of course this may increase transportation costs, increase delays in deliveries, and lead to higher prices for American consumers in addition to the 25% tariff but it would be better to take advantage of the vehicle slowdown caused by the US tariff to perform inspections and maintenance.
Marko, yup, checks out. 🙂 I have a colleague at Llubljana who rather than competing for a small condo in the heart of town owns a hillside villa near the Italian border, near Trieste, for a fraction of the price. Urban/rural divide is completely inverted from here.
One of the best in Canada, but I don’t know about the world.
You can also buy this 1970s condo in Milan, Italy for $1.8 million CND-> https://www.idealista.it/en/immobile/27710415/foto/15/
Bathroom and kitchen look lovely.
Kristian , but u would have to live in Italy . Victoria is the best world class city everyone wants to move to
Ok perhaps that particular watchtower is not the best representative of Italian castles for sale. 🙂
I ignore the ignorant.
Between a 2.5m townhouse in Rockland or (for 1.35m € = 1.9m CAD)
https://www.immobiliareitaliano.com/property/watchtower/
What would you choose?
LMAO stfu Frank, you literally just posted a bunch of b.s.
At that level people expect 2 parking spaces, otherwise, no deal. I can’t imagine the costs to rebuild in California, clearing the land with incredible remediation costs, building to earthquake standards, metal roofing, all solar power, etc… Add to that increased lumber prices (thanks to Trump’s tariffs), shortages of tradespeople (probably doubling construction costs), etc. Could be triple their coverage. Then they have to try to get insurance ($30,000-$100,000). Makes Victoria look cheap, especially with the 40+% currency discount.
I would strongly suggest a six point harness bolted to your concrete slab! The ability to handle the velocity of the upward prices for SFH alone will be an undertaking. Now that a good solid leader has finally been voted into place south of the 49th parallel…I see nothing other than positive attitudes, the voice of reason, and common sense moving forward.
Canada will follow.
So buckle up Thursty. The spring of 2025 for the Greater Victoria real estate market will be the last chance to get in ever!
Frank the three blocks of townhouses are just part of the larger complex with two condo buildings behind. I’m assuming underground parking with your own garage door into a two-car garage by the looks of it.
Meant to say last sale on Pentrelew.
“Fragrantly overpriced”
“a scentsational markup!”
Lol, nice catch Totoro.
Perhaps that was a slip of the tongue. After all, at some point a property becomes so exceptionally overpriced that it literally reeks of obscenity.
That’s like asking if there are comps for SFHs that have transacted around 10 million in the past 3 months. There aren’t, but it doesn’t mean that 10-million-dollar SFHs don’t exist – they just transact very infrequently.
Penrhyn at $1,930,000+5% GST in October is the last 2 million townhome sale.
Last sale on Penrhyn was a unit the developer had left in 2022 at $1,875,000+GST but not an end unit, no elevator, 130 sq.ft. smaller, etc.
@Marko,
I agree there is always a market of people willing to pay a premium for certain products. I also think there’s a lot of people who make bad gambles and lose big money in any business. There’s just not that many people willing or able to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars on a townhome in today’s market.
Are there any comps that has transacted around there in the past 3 months? The one you linked to has been on the market for over 4 months.
I’d agree the market likely doesn’t support a 470k/28% markup since Jan 2022. That was almost peak.
These were pre-sold in 2018-2019, fyi. 2022 would be the completion date on the pre-sale contract.
There was a condo that sold in the same complex on Pentrelew for $2,340,000 at 1,650 sq.ft.
Also, a number of these have already sold at over $2 million (with GST in) -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27406992/9-2590-penrhyn-st-saanich-cadboro-bay
Very expensive, but a market does exist for such even thought you can buy a nice SFH for $2 million.
Vicre, I’m not picky lol. I don’t mind trump either , who knows he could push up our house prices this year and I like anybody who can do that
Agreeing with frank? Geez, sounding desperate thirsty!!
Frank , agree , price seems fair for a larger missing middle townhouse . You couldn’t build that today for that price . Nice location and those townhouses are a architectural gem
1030 Pentrelew- Yep, the price is ridiculous, but there is a wealthy buyer for it and it will sell. The builder knows what they’re doing, installing the elevator was ingenious. The price represents the high costs of building such a higher end product. Can’t figure out where the double garage is. I’m sure there are $2 million+ condos out there.
a scentsational markup!
I’d agree the market likely doesn’t support a 470k/28% markup since Jan 2022. That was almost peak.
Esquimalt council faces 14.09% tax increase, looks for savings
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/esquimalt-council-faces-1409-tax-increase-looks-for-savings-10132657
Plans unveiled for 35-storey Blanshard St. tower, would be Island’s tallest
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/plans-unveiled-for-35-storey-blanshard-st-tower-would-be-islands-tallest-10129802
@Marko, I just saw this comment of yours: https://househuntvictoria.ca/2025/01/21/growth-in-victoria/#comment-124614
1030 Pentrelew Pl is a joke at that price.
That unit is so fragrantly overpriced it blows my other example out of the water. Over $1000/sqft to own a townhome, with no proximity to the water, with a $1250 maintenance fee and no yard.
I mean come on. You can get a pretty decent SFH in Vancouver, in a good neighbourhood, for that price. Meanwhile there are nicer SFHs in Victoria, that come with boat loads of land, and at lower prices.
I expect they will get closer to $2M for it when it eventually sells, so expect a $400k haircut on that listing price.
I’m not sure why people here are doubting that tariffs will come in February. There is every indication that Trump will go through with these.
Most likely these will get scaled back if and when Trump gets the very visible concessions he is looking for so that he can say “I won”. If we’re lucky that will be as simple as an election and a conservative government winning, followed by PP going to Trump and saying here’s our deal (and offering a couple of concessions like ditching the milk monopoly and spending a boat load on preventing the mirage of guns and drugs crossing our border to the US. .
I suspect if he gets these small concessions and can pretend that he overthrew the Trudeau government he might actually call that a big enough win to walk away. Especially if the tariffs are looking as painful to Americans as economists expect.
If we’re unlucky he might decide bullying his allies is a better look than sensible economic policy. Hard to say with certainty.
Glad to see you came back
@dad is right. Trump is a loose cannon and it can’t be called. My poor sweet dad is actually worried about the US invading Canada. If Trump is that loose maybe he’s not wrong to be concerned. It only took Hitler 100 days to rule by emergency decree thus giving him sweeping power. Trump oozes charisma and has the cult like following that comes with that. I’m wondering if the pro-Trump Canadians on this blog are becoming weary of supporting him – or, if like others, they’ll follow him blindly (wherever he may go). Personally I want to lock in my new mortgage for at least 4 years when it comes up for renewal (though that number might lose its significance if history teaches us anything).
No, because the required infrastructure for transporting refined products differs from that for crude, with the occasional exception such as original Trans Mountain which can handle both. Thus the dominant model is to have the refinery close to the consumers and bring in crude from a greater distance, particularly for overseas shipping. This also allows for more flexibility to meet local market needs.
Timber and lumber can both be shipped by the same means, and neither pose the hazards of shipping petroleum products.
Westerly,
As I mentioned in my post , Canada imports $15 billion of refined oil from the USA, but also exports $15bn of refined oil to the USA.
Same thing for global balance, where we export ($17b) as much as we import.
So the idea that “They in fact sell the refined petro in part back to us at a premium.” doesn’t seem to me to be an issue at all since we sell that much back to them.
You can see this in the attached graphic, and link https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/refined-petroleum/reporter/can
Moreover, Canada’s total imports of refined product are not only matched by our refined product exports, but they are much smaller numbers ($15b ) in general than our exports of crude ($125 bn).
Patrick,
This is not my area. However, is our exports of crude not similar to our export of raw timber? We export bulk and they refine at a significant profit by exporting the refined product? They in fact sell the refined petro in part back to us at a premium.
The net flow of petroleum is overwhelmingly from Canada to USA.
– Canada’s import of USA petroleum is $12B, (representing 10% of USA exports).
– Canada’s export to USA of petroleum to USA is 10X that, which is $120B and represents 60% of USA imports.
And note that these values don’t change when considering refined petroleum products, as the flow of those is equal ($15b in each direction (from CanadaUSA)
https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/crude-petroleum/reporter/usa
The graphic below shows USA exports to various countries, and USA imports from various countries. Canada is the “blue” square. Note how much bigger (10x) the blue square is representing petroleum flowing from Canada to USA than from USA to Canada.
And Canada. In fact Canada ranks fourth among all countries for US petroleum exports.
We went through this in 2015 with Trump. The USA gained very little. Increased access to Canadian Dairy Market? Increased duty free limit for Canadians who buy US goods? The big stumbling block being Automotive content to enter tariff free.
It was all a show for the grifter. As it will be again.
I think trump will cherry pick his tariffs imo. I will agree that Canada has become an over regulated and over taxed inept country . I unfortunately think we will fumble through this like every other crises , but I do enjoy the entertainment
All bets are off. The guy is a loose cannon, as evidenced by the sweeping January 6 pardon.
I think it would be dumb to tariff Canadian oil since it should raise domestic prices in the US, but the personality cult has blind faith in the wisdom of their leader. So who knows how it’ll play out down there.
The integration of the US and Canadian oil industries means that many US refineries are specifically designed to process heavy Canadian crude oil. The US would need to build new refineries for the different type of oil. Not something that is going to happen quickly or even in a decade. The US is not currently building any new refineries which can cost 14 billion dollars such as the one proposed by Kevin O’leary in North Dakota. Building refineries and pipelines are expensive and take a long time.
The tar sands are heavy crude, but Canada also produces sweet crude from other parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and BC. The Prince George and Burnaby refineries process light crude oil.
At least for right now, buying Canadian crude is the better solution for American oil production as they can obtain the oil for less than they can explore, drill and deliver it to refineries to process it. If that were not the case, then the Americans would already being doing so.
I doubt Trump would put a 25% tariff on Canadian Oil. In fact the opposite maybe true as he wants to sell more gas and oil to the EU and for that he needs more Canadian crude.
We will. The next 10 years are going to be a super boom.
The problem is that much of the US’ refining capacity is set up to refine heavy crude.
I’m also not sure why it is considered a bad thing to import cheaper Canadian crude, and sell more expensive light sweet crude to Europe and Asia.
We don’t have pipelines that run coast to coast.
I am… Premiers have become United with Danielle Smith. We are going to moving some oil from coast to coast via pipelines. Even Trudeau is now on board with Trumps new golden age. They owe Danielle a public apology…shameful. Now the game has changed for Canada to get as much product out of the ground and sold as fast as we possibly can!
We needed trump to give Canada a good solid kick in the ass. We were getting WAY too far left and nothing was getting done as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ls67u8HUOhs
“We’ve mooched off the US defence armour for decades without even trying to pay our fair share. We’ve grown complacent selling almost all of our stuff to a single country without so much as bringing down our own inter-provincial trade barriers. And then we do stupid things like provoking that one customer with the digital services tax where we’re the odd man out. And our ‘leader’ mocks Trump behind his back and gets caught doing it. I’m no Trump fan, but this bloody nose coming our way was predictable. There was an article I think in the Globe just today talking about how we need to grow up as a country. Let’s hope we do that, instead of just growing poorer. Pining for a change in US gov’t to right the ship is not realistic.”
Here, here, Peter. Well said. The veterans I know are ashamed at the state of our military and that we are being called out for not honouring our NATO commitments. Last I looked we 4th or 5th worst of all NATO Countries in our percent of GDP spending.
“If the USA didn’t get its oil from Canada then the only place left for it to get more oil is Venezuela.”
Drill baby drill. Deregulation for both onshore and offshore drilling will create an oversupply of domestic oil in the US, which is why the greater concerns in overproduction. Canada produces primarily heavy crude which is more expensive to refine and commands a much lower price.
We’ve mooched off the US defence armour for decades without even trying to pay our fair share. We’ve grown complacent selling almost all of our stuff to a single country without so much as bringing down our own inter-provincial trade barriers. And then we do stupid things like provoking that one customer with the digital services tax where we’re the odd man out. And our ‘leader’ mocks Trump behind his back and gets caught doing it. I’m no Trump fan, but this bloody nose coming our way was predictable. There was an article I think in the Globe just today talking about how we need to grow up as a country. Let’s hope we do that, instead of just growing poorer. Pining for a change in US gov’t to right the ship is not realistic.
Trump said that the USA doesn’t need Canada’s oil as America is the largest producer of crude oil.
But that’s a half truth. America is the largest producer but it does not produce enough oil to meet its domestic demand. That’s why Canada supplies 60% of the crude oil that the USA imports.
If the USA didn’t get its oil from Canada then the only place left for it to get more oil is Venezuela.
That’s not going to happen.
We are also a…
There’s money to be made here in Canada if we need to get back to manufacturing things . Lots of short memories, but Canadians were shocked that during the pandemic , we had zero manufacturing of some basic things like masks and gloves etc lol
Every major player on the planet wants a piece of this action.
The northwest passage shipping route…
https://arcticportal.org/shipping-portlet/shipping-routes/northwest-passage
It is a threat and threats do get people to do things sometimes. The problem is that every time he threatens a trading partner, particularly free-trade-agreement partners, the rest of the world loses trust in the U.S. as a partner.
Supply chains start to go around the U.S. rather than through the U.S., and that makes it more difficult for the companies in the U.S. that export and makes it more difficult for global companies that are trying to arrange supply chains to serve the United States. So this constant threatening has a cost. It’s not a freebie.
He’s not. There is no such thing as a free lunch. I’m sure we all know what it is that he really wants. He also knows damn straight that we’re not just going to give it to him. We could however lease it to him, to the tune of let’s say $300 Billion USD per year. He doesn’t like the Panama Canal anymore. He says its owned by China now.
Groot, Trump has no interest in free trade , he knows he holds all the cards and has no use for Canada. So yes hard to negotiate with someone who only wants it one way . I’m guessing 10 percent tariffs give or take is the future . It’s not like we are a huge exporting economy and maybe we will just trade with others . I think trump is talking very clearly that he is not a free trader
You give them more Adderall prior to the negotiations.
How is it possible to negotiate with someone who initiates tariffs from an Adderall induced psychosis?
Groot, Trumps not going anywhere, he is wildly popular and is doing a great job
I think daniel smith is getting it right. Trump is just playing Canada and canadians are falling for it. Free trade as we have known it is dead with the U.S, we should start slaping on our own tariffs on monday, and beat the U.S to the punch.
If our fearless leader would crawl out of hiding and open up the communication channels and atleast attempt negotiations with the US president, I really don’t think broad based 25% tariffs would be a thing. He still has 5 business days to make that happen.
If Trump goes ahead with his broad based 25% tariff it could mean the end of his presidency.
33 Senate and 435 house seats are up for election on November 3, 2026. That could change the control of both the house and the senate in favor of Democrats who will likely impeach Trump’s arse.
That would make Trump with one of the shortest presidencies.
Well that’s good news. I really can’t see the BC government placing any kind of tariffs on the imports coming in from the USA into Canada which would result in skyrocketing food price inflation since its the importer that pays the cost of any retaliatory tariffs.
Not sure I would rejoice in the BC wine industry just yet. Freezing in winter and fires in summer, maybe short-term growing / restructuring pains but we are reliant on US fruit for now:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/okanagan-wine-industry-2024-freeze-1.7419441
Yeah, but David Eby is going to start selling BC wine to all of the Canadian Provinces now. This move in itself will lessen the blow significantly for Canadian small business moving forward!
Fair enough. Is the Company involved in the Greater Victoria Construction Industry?
.
Company, not project. Should be on Vibrant Victoria this weekend.
*correction, on the news already – https://www.saanichnews.com/local-news/north-saanichs-epicure-to-cease-operations-due-to-financial-challenges-7781011
Well this sounds like a perfect little game. Lets play… “guess who it is”.
I have absolutely no clue who this could possibly be. I am totally flying blind here. (100 employees). My guess would be…
That massive PBR project north bound on the #1 just before the Leigh road off ramp. Farmer Construction.
This is just my guess. I could be totally wrong! I have no insider Intel what so ever.
Insider contacts tells me a decent sized company for Victoria (over 100 employees) just closed up shop, hopefully no one on HHV was impacted.
Lots of relists on the market
You can also change the wording so the time clause can be issued upon an accepted offer (not upon accepted offer removing all conditions), but then people will argue with that approach if second offer doesn’t remove conditions you’ve “lost” both deals.
The 1/Den’s are 620-640 sq’
The 1’s are 590 sq’
Studios 450 sq’
Off street parking is available @ 150/month all spots are now rented.
Bike storage is included.
Plus utilities. We put heat pumps in each unit so the utilities are minimal. Domestic hot water so we pay that. Gas fired.
It’s now a pretty energy efficient building with a 43% increase in efficiency from when we started.
I’m almost through the 8 month CMHC MLI select program
Could try and amend the wording such that the subject to sale party will need to pay for the other buyer’s inspection cost (or maybe a flat $1,000) should they end up removing subjects during the time clause.
Designated off street parking is included? what are the sizes of those units?
@VicReanalyst
The other rents I listed are not furnished and are plus utilities. But yes they are newly renovated and in nice neighborhoods.
I won’t rent anything that I wouldn’t live in myself.
We will spend the money on sound proofing etc.
Double 5/8, Rez Bar,Green glue,double safe and sound insulation and we will insulate all interior bedrooms,bathrooms and laundry closets.
@ Frank
Our furnished units include all utilities other then wifi/cable, we found that people always wanted different tiers of internet/tv and it was a pain changing it.
Those are niche products, newly renovated furnished suites in character homes in desirable neighborhoods. Not representative of the majority of rental stock.
No substantialy difference in price, sellers didn’t want to deal with subject to offers when we knew the condos had a slim chance of selling.
Lots of moving parts here, for example, the standard contract wording notes that the second buyer has to remove all conditions before the time clause can be called on the 1st subject to sale offer. This makes it more difficult to sell the property to another buyer as you are asking him or her to due all their due diligence (including inspection) and then they won’t know if they actually got the house, or not, for 24 to 72 hrs while the time clause is called on the subject to sale.
Etc., etc., I am of the opinion no point in accepting a subject to offer if it doesn’t have a really strong chance of selling quickly.
If I was a seller personally I would never accepted a subject to. Sell your property first and if mine is still available when you sell make an offer at such time, but those are just my personal thoughts.
Risk has been dramatically reduced with the rescission period. I wrote a lot of “unconditional” offers for experienced savvy buyers (would not suggest for most buyers) last year and made quite a number of YouTube videos on the topic. On average based on my experience I think you can knock off another 2 to 3% versus conditional offer in many circumstances.
What is the true monetary value of an unconditional offer in BC? -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-UrdB3S8P0
The understanding of the rescission period with agents and how to put their clients in best possible position is often questionable. I came across listing agents delaying offers to Wednesday night ahead of a long weekend last year. Problem with that is now the buyer gets 6 days to change their mind instead of three if they make an unconditional offer. If I am doing any sort of offer delay I am always taking the offers Monday or Tuesday so that potential unconditional offers only have until Thursday or Friday to rescind. However, when working with buyers I love the Wednesday/Thursday/Friday offer acceptance as then we have the two extra weekend days.
Viclandlord- What does the 4295 inclusive in your first example include? Utilities? Thanks.
I guess if people are concerned about being homeless they can always offer on other places without the contingency of selling their own property, but then they would have to be willing to list their place under market and hope it gets bid up to market value. Though most clients would probably balk at this too. I didn’t realize how unattractive subject to sale offers were until I was selling my first place.
I’m curious if there was a significant price difference between the subject to sale offers and the offer you ended up going with?
Wish we had more on the ground reporting like this from people actually doing business/transactions 🙂
I am thinking things on the Westshore could become a lot more competitive than the core in the next couple of years. There is the one development on the right side of the Highway heading North before the South Point/Bear Mountain exist and there must be 500 rental units just in that development alone.
There can’t be a never ending line-up of people wanting to rent 1-beds in Langford for 2k/month.
What I suggest to most of my clients and 95% respond with “but I don’t want to be homless.”
As you note, no seller with an attractive in demand property is looking at a subject to the sale of your property.
Last year I had a lot of SFH starter home listings I sold and must have rejected 20+ subject to sale offers of condos (young couples looking to move up from condos to SFH starter). One SFH starter home I had in View Royal we had three different buyers offer subject to the sale of a condo – rejected all of them. We eventually sold the SFH to a non-subject to some time later and at the time of sale all three condos were still on the market and not sold.
Even better is when people make offers subject to the sale of their property and their property isn’t even on the market.
There is always a 10% contigency. All I am saying is I am not seeing numbers come in under a budget that was put together this past summer; therefore, not seeing a drop in construction costs at the moment.
I started construction on my personal house in 2014 and that was year 5 of a very slow real estate market in Victoria and still no one was begging for work. I ended up having to do the envelope with my father as the only three quotes I was able to obtain were out to lunch for nailing hardieplan into straps.
My impression is trades prices go up and then they flatline and people move to Alberta, camps, or rather go on EI versus cutting their expectations substantially. I know a guy that framed a house for us in the Oaklands area in 2011 wasn’t happy with framing prices so he stopped framing and took a job with the schoold district. There is an absolute shortage of skilled labour, imo so when there is a slowdown the truly capable people are still easily employed in one fashion or another.
I am surprised your realtor friend isn’t telling people that waiting to list until there is a property you want to buy is a bad strategy.
Unless you have sufficient income/savings to close on a second home while your current property is still for sale, or you’ve arranged bridge financing (which is expensive and typically requires an accepted offer on your property to secure), you likely won’t be able to make competitive offers on desirable properties that attract multiple buyers.
If the property is not yet sold, they will be limited to making offers contingent on selling their home—something sellers generally dislike—or making an offer to purchase with a long closing date while trying to sell their own property, which is also less than ideal.
Selling first (with a longer closing date if you can negotiate it) allows for much stronger offers. Most properties that I saw go for much less than what I perceived as market value from friends/coworkers basically all were the same scenario- Unconditional offers, seller is trying to get rid of the property fast so it’s only on the market for a few days, large deposit (even better if it’s a non refundable deposit). Obviously there is a lot of risk to these type of offers and probably not right for most buyers.
I wouldn’t say people can’t find another house, but rather a lot of people don’t like what they hear in terms of the process of upsizing or downsizing. People have an expectation of they find a house they love that is well priced and then they make an offer subject to the sale of theirs and they sell their house quickly and all the days line up, etc. That is really difficult to pull off.
Marko, not sure if you’re hearing this. I had lunch with a realtor friend and he was saying that he’s starting to hear of people wanting to list but won’t as they can’t find another house to buy . This is reminiscent of a few years ago when inventory tanked . This would be sfh in the core
LMAO 4249 Oakview Pl must have been reading hhv…
I think that is the difference, I am not familiar with how small projects are planned and executed. But I would think at a minimum your friend would have had contingency built into the budget meant to absorb these unforeseen cost increases.
What I’m seeing in our rents
In the last month or so we have had a couple people give notice in two of our mid term furnished rentals
#1 3bed/1bath Top floor in a renovated character house,just off Oakbay village.
Listed and rented within the first week on a 1 year lease @ 4295 inclusive, we are out a month as they didn’t need it until Feb 1.
We did have an offer for a 3/month but decided to eat the month and go for the 1 year.
The tenants leaving were there for 8 months due to a flood in their condo unit and were paying the same amount.
The new tenants are moving from the us and looking to buy a house in Oak-bay/fairfield.
#2 1/bed 1/bath in Cook st village
Listed and rented within the first week at 2845 inclusive with a parking spot on a 6 month lease.
The tenant leaving was there for 8 months @ 2550 with no parking.
She had moved from the us and works remotely for a tech company and now is a new home owner in Fairfield.
The new tenant is a semi retired person who just sold their house in Fairfield.
We also raised rents in 5 of our units effective Jan 1 and not one person decided to leave. These were already at market rent as they are new units.
We did have one young girl say it was going to be at the top of her budget and we rescinded hers.
Those units are 1 Beds @ 2350,Studio@1950 1/Den’s @ 2600.
Plus utilities & Parking.
As I look around though all I see is rental condos starting to go up, so it should be interesting over the next few years.
I would be worried if I had a bunch of garbage basement suits or places in crap areas.
….. not $850k.
“ These homes are available through a limited pre-sale release, starting at $850,000 (+GST) with our Shared Equity Purchase Program, or $999,000 without.”
Ok well maybe Thursty is cheering it. :p
There are too many things to explain here if you aren’t fimilar with realities of real life construction. A tradesperson can commit to a job and while you are waiting for months on end for the muncipality to issue the permit they line up better/simpler jobs and simply pull out giving a variety of excuses like “their guys quit, too complicated, had to give my guys raises due to inflation and can’t honour the price anymore, etc.” and these exuses may or may not have merit and such things are unpredictable. These aren’t huge companies working on townhome projects.
To think you can budget a smaller project accurately months in advance is just not reality. You have to do your best based on experience and gut feel.
Otherwise everyone would be a developer – just crunch some spreadsheets, send out some drawings for quotes, make sure the numbers the pro forma works and off you go.
That is the key, buy a home you like so even if the market goes down you at least still have a house you like. You don’t want to be in a position of stretching your budget and FOMOing into a house you don’t even like just to get into the market, that is a totally different situation if the market goes down.
So in the budget he just assumed that the concrete guy he typically uses was going to give him the same price for this project without first sharing details?
Kristian, well played , like the pandemic I think a lot people are thinking doomsday for real estate and the economy with trumps tariffs. But we can just as easy see a boom in real estate prices like we did in the pandemic. Wouldn’t that be nice
More missing middle hitting the market – https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27831004/unit-3-allenby-st-saanich-camosun
850k, no parking.
Unfortunately that is the reality. I made a YT video a few months ago breaking down $708,500 worth of civil costs on a missing middle project -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHCY95hyouM
Just the civil costs eat up one unit of gross sales.
FWIW I have yet to see any voice here cheering on the regression. Recognizing the trend is not endorsing it. Personally I’m glad we took the leap 1.5 years ago and got a SFH with a suite to rent out. If things start going crazy again; if they stay level; if they take a hit: in each case we have a home we’re happy with and that will either help us help our kids when they come of age or if things take a hit conditions will simply be better for them.
Of course it is, but there is also real life. My friend on one projected accounted for the extra code design, but it go to the point where the structural details were so complicated the concrete contractor he has used in the past for SFHs/Townhomes said “not worth my time, this is more commercial than residential, I’ll pass,” so he had to find a more commercial contractor which ended up more than additional budget he has put into place. He didn’t account for that part that his go to concrete guy would find it too complicated to take on.
Same with soil sample testing. He added 10k for soil sample testing for services; however, he couldn’t predict that the COV was going to make him move the location of connection on the street which will require another round of soil sample testing.
The one budget spreadsheet I have access to that was put together by the builder/developer (who is also his own GC on site every day so in the depths of every aspect) in August is currently 2% overbudget and he doesn’t see it coming under budget based on contracts he is signing right now for plumbing, electrical, etc. Some things did come in slightly under, he budgeted 230k for blasting/excavation and it came in at 220k but that has more to do with luck.
ya but how did you come up with the $6M? Was it costed taking into consideration of the new building code design requirements?
We will be seeing some big changes coming in the wake of the LA fires . Fire suppression and flame resistant materials and landscape are coming down the pipe .
I don’t know if I would describe that as a design “issue,” but rather as a stricter design requirements.
If your construction budget is $6 million to build a townhome complex and this is broken down into excavation/earthwork, foundation, structure, windows, roof, plumbing, electrical, etc. either you are above budget or below budget. If the trades have to price high due to stricter design requirements that require more labor that doesn’t help your budget even if their per hour cost drops. No one is paying more to purchase or rent your townhome just because you have way more rebar in your footing/foundation walls than a townhome built 10 years ago.
100% it is a regression we as a society have orchestrated and continue to support.
When Fairfield was built 100+ years ago they poured sidewalks. To this day you walk on those sideways.
However, if you want new sidewalks today you need 10 different consultants. Have to get a report from an arborist for tree root impact study. A p.engineer has to design the sidewalk. A city person has to take 6 months to review the p-engineer’s design and provide comments. Need a biologist to make sure squirrels won’t be impacted by the sidewalk. P.engineer has to do testing on the strength of the sideway and provide reports to the city that the sidewalk is strong enough encase a fully load semi truck drives over it, imagine if it cracked.
So instead of 9 people working on a sidewalk and 1 managing we end up with 1 person working on a sidewalk and 9 managing/consulting. Of course we are going to have less sidewalks and housing a society. That is choice we’ve made.
That’s a design issue not a subtrade pricing issue, two different things. If building code calls for over engineering then there is extra cost for that unrelated to trades pricing, I am only talking about trades pricing.
Just a transition period, if he can’t find anything better then I am sure he would call back.
If you want to grow the business then you have to scale up and that comes with it’s own issues but at the end of the day making 10% on a 7 figure job is still more than making 20% on a 5 figure job.
Marko , pretty much what I’m seeing
Vicre, ya I’m not totally suprised. Funny thing about subtrades is as their company grows they drop the little guys and want to just bid on the big jobs . Then now happens and they start eating costs . I am being warned from my suppliers that material costs are going up . I use a lot of higher end stuff like cedar and those bills are not going down
Larger jobs in general, not just condos. The larger subs are definitely sharpening their pencils over and over again.
I am getting weekly cost numbers on two projects in Victoria and overall costs aren’t dropping. If you do save a tiny bit here it just goes toward soil sample testing or some other crap. Also, requirements are always getting stricter. and more involved. My friend was pour footings/foundation walls this week for a townhome project and the size of footings/amount of concrete/rebar/etc., it looks like he is building a 30 story building. So maybe labor drops a bit per hour but there is way more labor to do because of additional structural work. Also, price of rebar drops a small amount, but structure engineer requires more of it.
I was talking to a SFH framer and he is was complaining about lack of work and then when I put him in touch with a builder friend he quoted a ridiculous number to frame a simple house, so not sure what to make of it all.
vicre,Im in the sfh business, are u finding the subtrades in the condo market to be under stress
And why is it so surprising that a decent sized brand new townhome is more expensive than a 40-100 year old SFH that might have similar floor area?
Vicre labour is coming in a little lower , but the cost of materials hasn’t budged much and with things like wild fires and building code changes I’m expecting it to keep on going up.
That is where you are flat out wrong thursty. I’ve seen cost decline for over a year now and it’s actually picking up speed now, it started with carpentry and formwork, then electrical and now seeing mechanical decline. If you are doing a large project you have some serious leverage on subs now, not sure about smaller scale builds but I assume it has to be happening now also.
I’m in favour of multi-gen housing for families that get along. For me personally I prefer not to share the same unit, but to have multiple units on site like this family: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/one-lot-four-families-multigenerational-housing
Not sure how this is anything but community-building. Ironically the existing secondary suite forgivable loan prohibits building a unit for family members – the only people I would do this for – like most other Canadians. Instead we should be doing this for strangers and renting under market and get called greedy for being a landlord at all.
Umm really , sales and prices are up year over year , so not seeing the disaster. Another cut coming for interest rates and more to follow. The future looks good
Don’t worry the complaints are going to flowing the other way hard. The economy is crashing into recession fast now and demand will be impacted. Rents dropping are a first sign of the trouble to come…
Ya funny thing , developers deliver missing middle and folks complain about the price , i don’t get it
The developer has a number of other townhome projects currently for sale that are selling and they also have a history of selling pre-sale townhomes upwards of $2 million without any issues. For example, they sold this townhome pre-sale for $2 million+GST around 5 years ago -> https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27764165/1030-pentrelew-pl-victoria-rockland
Expensive, yes; however, not sure this developer would be that off on their pricing. They have multiple other townhome pre-sale projects right now where they know exactly what they are selling, what the interest is like, and how many they’ve sold in those other projects.
1.4 for the townhouse on the gorge is not out of line , in a few more years and that looks as cheap as chips . Cost of construction will continue to ramp up, and there will still be an endless supply of folks that can afford it
Newer townhouse prices are getting more and more ridiculous. Even resale townhomes. I used to think perhaps of when I retire moving into a townhouse but the last couple of years the prices although they appear flattish overall are increasing to a point where moving I’d pay more than the value of my home to buy one and when you add in strata they are unaffordable.
I think this aspect isn’t talked about enough. It used to be possible to sell a home, put money in the bank and purchase a townhouse but it’s almost unreachable unless perhaps you are mortgage free. I won’t be mortgage free at retirement as I think will be the case for more people of my generation who bought later or just into a segment of housing that was more expensive and takes longer to pay off.
$1.4 million for a 1550 sqft townhome on the gorge. Now that’s a laugh. Thanks for sharing, Marko.
Let’s watch that unit sit on the market for a few months before the developers take a big haircut. Even those 1000 yearly Vancouver migrants won’t consider that a good price. It’s around $900/sqft and you’re stuck paying maintenance fees and have a shared property to boot.
The reality is that until this city can get missing middle housing built for less than the price of our current SFH stock, new development is only going to push up prices, not bring them down. That’s a sad situation to be in.
Places like Oak Bay have no room to expand, it’s a defined border. Residents do not want to increase the density of population given the inherent problems that creates- traffic congestion, lack of parking, noise, it goes on and on. Canadians, like myself, are spoiled and don’t want to give up our lifestyle to accommodate more people. We are selfish, plain and simple. We worked hard to get there and don’t want to give it up.
>>.>>> Quite right that’s a trend but it’s not really an increase in price per se, rather a shift from one dwelling to two dwelling properties. That we still call the property a “SFH” clouds the issue.
Quite right, and if we consider a house with a suite to no longer be considered a SFH, this ongoing trend reduces the number of SFH (with no suite) even further. Increasing the price due to scarcity.
////=====
The topic you are commenting on is “house (SFH) prices in Victoria”. And, although lower rates and two-income households are a factor, you didn’t mention the ongoing trend that I consider to be the biggest factor for Victoria SFH..
Namely “SFH scarcity”.
There is increasing ratio of demand (population, urbanization) vs supply (falling SFH construction).
By analogy, we are making more “hotdogs” (condos) and fewer “steaks” (SFH), so the price of “steaks “ is rising – as expected.
You should note from Leo’s charts that Oak Bay, Saanich and Sidney had negligible population growth. (Less than 1,000 people total). This isn’t because people don’t want to move there, it is because the supply of houses for them to live in isn’t growing.
So this is rising demand and flat supply – an ongoing recipe for Victoria SFH prices to continue to rise faster than inflation.
Quite right that’s a trend but it’s not really an increase in price per se, rather a shift from one dwelling to two dwelling properties. That we still call the property a “SFH” clouds the issue.
It’s beguiling how hard it is to get some folks to admit that the housing situation is difficult to terrible for the younger generation.
I have no difficulty admitting that purchasing a home in the 80s, 90s, and 2000s was not a challenge for me.
I’m not going to join in some perverse celebration of the “industriousness” of 4 generations huddled under one roof just to make do.
It’s a regression.
I grew up in a small house with m grandparents, single mother and two of her sisters. Seemed perfectly normal to me but what did I know?
Joe, the friends I spoke of worked hard, saved their money, and built their own houses. They are taking nothing from anyone. The parents and family invested in RE and are relatively very wealthy. It’s really no one’s business how many generations are under the roof.
I’ll add, they are also putting their kids and grandkids through University. Their next generation will be at the top of their class and wealth. Not because they took something away.
I hope my kids will be there too and we will do what we can to help them – even if that means sharing a roof.
I agree. It would seem that we need more “missing middle” development. But the spectacular failure of that initiate thus far is more than I could possibly discuss.
Westerly, see my comment about house prices rising to the level of the combined income of grandparents, parents, etc.
Joe, if you’re concerned about immigrants coming here taking up housing, would it not be a plus if they are living under one roof? Supply and demand?
Home delivery distribution facility for groceries. Even Walmart is all over grocery home delivery.
Hmm. CHEK News is reporting that in October Costco purchased the land that Staples sits on for $14M. Costco isn’t saying what the plan is. The purchase only increases its footprint by 16%.
Realistically that won’t happen. We just hit a 70 year low for SFH construction in BC, 2025 will be a 71 year low.
Once subdivisions like Royal Bay/Westhills/South Point are built out it is going to be complete collapse of SFH construction in Victoria. I can’t see Metchosin/Highlands being opened up and it will take decades to expand the road out to Sooke. Five years just to make sure the deer habitat won’t be impacted by a road.
Possibly?
I agree, and I think that’s why the solution is to build more family-sized housing. Otherwise, it’ll just be a race to the bottom whilst folks navel gaze and say silly things like “well, that’s normal in Hong Kong”.
Isn’t is a positive for the environment having more people living under one roof?
If supply wasn’t constrained house prices wouldn’t rise as fast.
Westerly, the problem is that it is a regression. Moving from a scenario where a couple can afford to live in a home with their children to one where they are required to live with their parents and grandparents is worse. It means they can afford less than their parents could and that their options are more limited. If folks don’t want to live with their parents and grandparents, they should have that option. It’s not part of my culture and not something I want for my grandchildren.
The issue is that once folks combine the purchasing power of grandparents and parents, house prices rise accordingly. The result is that young folks have less options and get less for their money.
Joe, “I do, however, worry about the trend of importing folks from poor countries where many living under one roof is an acceptable norm.” Can you provide an example where this has been a problem?
We have friends from India and China (parents were immigrants) where the culture either has the first born son (and family) move into the parent’s home or the family combines their capital to buy a home for each family member. Not seeing the problem with respect to the greater community.
We have seemingly adopted this in as much as we have my MIL living in our home and my sister has her MIL in her home (both at or below overhead cost) and we have helped our first born and spouse to buy a home that they would not have been able to afford on their own.
You could be right. I do, however, worry about the trend of importing folks from poor countries where many living under one roof is an acceptable norm.
I’m sure some of the more nihilistic posters around here such as Thursty will celebrate this—they tend to celebrate anything that drives up home prices, community be damned—but I worry about the effect on our city.
“At least 10% of condo owners are brutal vigilantes.” Let me correct myself, that is 10% of owners that show up to the AGMs. Not sure what the typical representation is but it’s nowhere near 100%.
You forgot the trend of suites and that still has room to go.
Max- You got away cheap primarily because you did the work. I’m sure today with all the restrictions in some areas and hiring contractors to do the work it would run 50 grand.
I really don’t think anyone would disagree with you on that. I do however know, the ones that ignored those trends and decided to rent are sadly disappointed with their decision.
Marko, “Complain about what? Bill 44…” Just to make clear, I’m personally in favor of Air BNB etc. and mainly because I’m unhappy about the uncompensated restrictions. That said, and just something I would consider as a property owner, if I was renting and re-renting over and over again – even on month to month tenancy’s, another owner (or worse, “other owners”) could make the case that I’m in fact short-term renting. If all 12 tenants give notice over a 12 month period… well, if it walks like a duck… and then there’s your professional assoc’n.
“House prices in Victoria have gone up 7% per year on average since 1960 – 3.74% when adjusted for inflation”
Yes and what has happened since 1960? First a change from one income to two incomes as a norm for house buyers. Also rising real wages. Both these trends maxed out around 1980. And then what? 40 years of falling interest rates.
These trends are now over and done with. If you think there is simply some magic quality which drives RE prices faster than inflation, you are ignoring these. And I don’t think rising immigration is going to take up the slack going forward either.
Complain about what? Bill 44 banned rental restrictions and with a tenancy agreement you have to submit a Form K to the strata. If you follow the rules and submit Form Ks what can they possible do if the tenant gives legal notice and moves out?
I know no one in my building is happy with airbnb and a number of people complained to the strata council about mine but I meet the strata bylaws (30 day min), muncipal and provicinal legislation (principal residence discards the 90 day)….like a venn diagram 🙂
The biggest thing I am seeing right now on the strata level is owners arguing with councils whether they should be charged a move-in fee ($50 to $200 in most stratas) when they are renting units fully furnished. A few councils have retaliated and changed the blyaws from move-in fee to “change of occupancy,” etc.
I attended many council meetings over the years with people having absolute meltdowns over rental restrictions, age restrictions, etc., and then Bill 44 comes in overnight, and life goes on like before. I remember in one building people spent years campaigning to bring in a rental restrictions, then finally after years of campaigning and heated AGMs they push through a 1 year minimum rental and then a few months later the government bans it, lol.
My point is so much of strata non-sense isn’t really that important, big picture wise.
There’s also the other condo owners to consider. If people get the idea that someone is circumventing the rules they will tattle. Maybe more direct, if people get the idea that you are benefitting and getting away with something they will complain just to make themselves feel better. At least 10% of condo owners are brutal vigilantes. By my direct observation.
Good market for this too. Lots of folks living out east with grandkids in Victoria that want a nice place to stay for a month or two.
In theory yes you could sign a tenancy agreement followed by a mutual end to tenancy right after….that seems a little more premediated to avoid the STR restrictions versus tenant giving notice during the first month.
People will get more creative for sure.
Why not a 30 day tenancy? Under the RTA one of the ways a tenancy can end is listed as “the landlord and tenant agree in writing to end the tenancy;”.
Seems like you could literally sign the tenancy agreement and the agreement to end tenancy at the same time….
And, as I think Marko has suggested, a landlord could offer a month to month tenancy where the rate is so high the tenant won’t stay longer than they need to. For that matter, he / she hopes the tenant will stay for years.
I forget the specific details but years back in property management we were approached by a prospective tenant wanting a month-to-month rental of a condo. Older couple who were here to visit. After moving into the unit they gave notice after the first week. They only stayed for 6 weeks (detail I’m not quite remembering) and we re-rented the condo effective the day they moved out. Property owner doubled down on their rent at a time when vacancy rate was considerably higher than it is now.
This was late 90’s / early 2000s. With today’s legislation the landlord would be obligated to return $$ to the tenant but even now I expect a situation like this would be $$ in the landlord’s pocket. Tenant saved $ over the cost of a decent hotel and the LL went to the bank.
I hooked up to sewer as they were coming down the road. The municipality was offering huge incentive rates if people hooked up to the infrastructure right away. I paid for two sewer connections at $2500 each (its 20k each connection now). So after the trenching to the backyard, the pumping/deconstruction of the existing 750 gallon septic tank and the hookup…$7k all in.
Since the house already had an in-law suite, it came with a 1″ water line from the meter. It was just a matter of trenching from the main house to the garden suite and they were fine with that…$2k all in.
60amp sub panel to the garden suite. Direct burial tech cable from the main house 200amp panel…$3k all in.
The only requirements for the storm (perimeter drains/rain water leads) was a rock pit.
There were no soil testing requirements.
On a non-principal residence you can’t offer a fixed term tenancy for longer than 90-days either, no? Automatically reverts to month-to-month.
Let’s say someone wants to rent a unit from two months. What prevents the owner from suggesting a tenancy agreement to circumnavigate the 90-day STR restriction? Is it illegal to inform a potential “tenant” that they can sign a tenancy agreement and give notice effectively creating a 60 day stay?
No, it gives a tenant a legal way to end a tenancy early. This is important because a tenant should not have to stay and pay for somewhere they do not want to be. The landlord is prohibited from offering fixed term tenancies for less than 90-days, and month-to-months can’t be ended by a landlord in less than 90 days absent failure to pay rent or other serious tenant misconduct.
Really the legislation gives a landlord a legal way to circumnavigate the 90-day minimum into a 60-day minimum.
(context here is the short term rents are inflated/above market so if “tenant” opts to stay under the tenancy agreement landlord wouldn’t care)
Yes. The legislation limits landlord offers but does not prohibit tenants from giving notice.
So if a movie production company calls me up looking for a place (non-principal residence) for an actor for two months I can’t offer them accommodation for less than 90 days under STR; however, I can offer them a RTB tenancy agreement which they can use to stay for 60 days by giving notice during the 1st month.
There are so many things like this that have had zero thought put into them, imo.
Can’t imagine it does. The STR Act defines “short-term rental offer”, in respect of a property of a property host, means an offer by a supplier host to provide short-term rental accommodation services at the property. ST Accommodation services are defined as a host providing accommodation for periods of less than 90 days. A month-to-month is an unrestricted offer by a landlord. If a tenant gives notice after the first month this does change the fact that the offer was for more than 90 days.
And there already kind of is for short term rentals in-between the info you have to provide to Airbnb and municipality.
All these regulations are getting to be incredibly convoluted. I still haven’t had a ton of my questions answered. For example, 90 day minimum, right? Does that make a month to months tenancy agreement illegal? As technically a BC tenancy agreement could legally last as short as two months.
I have yet to find a source on student visas being extended. The student visa is valid for the duration of the study program, plus an extra 90 days in case they need to extend the study permit or arrange to leave Canada.
Over the last decade or so many homes were purchased for students attending school. What I have noticed is an increase in the number of listings where the owner is identified as a student.
How important this may be for the 2025 and 2026 real estate market is not presently clear.
There kind of is. Many renters with incomes under 83k a year are eligible for a tax credit and report the address on their tax forms to claim it. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/income-taxes/personal/credits/renters-tax-credit
That was a few month ago right? It’s gotten worse now, April will be bad when students are done for the semester. Prudent to be cashflow neutral or better from the onset if you want to be a investor!
Plus GST.
1.4 for a townhouse in gorge? Better have unobstructed views of the water or its a joke.
Tough to get accurate comps on the higher priced ones, not many people want to pay close to $2M for that neighborhood with many rentals and cars parked all over the street.
Yep , house prices will start their steady climb up this year , and with very little supply being built . Canada’s supply problem should just get worst . This should all bode well for returns . If you are wanting a sfh that door is fast closing .
Lots of new product missing middle/townhome type stuff hitting the market in the last few days, some examples
https://www.urbanthrive.ca/folk
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/27830341/th4-630-gorge-rd-w-saanich-gorge
Should have clarified. Most of the Netflix series are here for 3 to 5 months filming and then when I have the 30 day rental stay put them into my principal residence unit.
Why isn’t there a registry for basement suites being rented? You are less likely not to report AirBnb income now that Airbnb is synced with the government versus your friend paying you cash for the basement suite.
Took a month to rent out a bedroom in my parents’ basement suite…..first time I think they’ve had a non-renovation vacancy in 25 years. That being said rent did go up from $700 (old tenant was there for 5 years, no rent increases) to $900 but now both rooms $900. $1,800 for a 700 sq.ft. suite is still way too too much.
Rents coming down is not a bad thing.
House prices in Victoria have gone up 7% per year on average since 1960 – 3.74% when adjusted for inflation. https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/
Appreciation generally doesn’t happen at a steady rate – some years will be negative, some static and some up. It is the average over time that is important to future projections.
While appreciation is likely to stall for a number of years, it is, imo, most likely to keep up with inflation over time at minimum. As wages rise so does affordability.
Keep in mind that 2.1 million in 25 years is equivalent to 1 million today just applying a 3% rate of inflation. Just like 1 million today is equivalent to less than 600k in 2000 dollars applying the actual rate of inflation for this period: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Canada-inflation
From property managers: Clients having to drop rents hundreds of dollars from expectations to get places rented. Market has weakened dramatically.
Only going to continue I think as pop growth slows down in 2025/2026 and still lots of rental completions.
Canada’s recent decision to reduce immigration quotas and restrict international student admissions is set to create profound shifts across the housing market and the broader economy. This policy reversal is a major measure targeting demand-side pressures, intended to ease Canada’s housing shortage and improve affordability.
This policy shift could amplify the current demand decline, especially in the rental sector. Falling rental demand does not bode well for home prices as these markets are closely linked. Therefore, a significant shock to the rental market—driven by simultaneous demand reduction and rising supply—which could have lasting effects on housing demand and price stability over the long term.
What’s wrong with targeting illegal rentals and tax cheaters? They are running a business, and it is only fair that they get a license and pay the taxes.
The comp price for the other 3 houses on the same street “should” be:
Isn’t a 30-day rental contrary to the 90-day provincial minimum and how can a second unit be rented as a STR?
I guess the restaurant space is now vacant…
Have you seen the alley besides the Era lately? Crazy what downtown has become.
Canada is still in a deep winter freeze, but the market is shaping up for an interesting Spring. National Bank of Canada (NBF) found that real estate inventory proved more resilient than sales in December. That inventory might be even higher this Spring, as frustrated sellers cancel 1 in 5 listings without a sale. Many waiting for cheaper mortgages and improved demand in the Spring may be in for a surprise. Not only will this group-think result in them re-listing at the same time, but bond markets have been pushing yields higher, undermining the impact of mortgage stimulus.
-Better Dwelling January 22, 2025
Sounds like this 834 johnson…..
We’ll see…..just received this update from my property manager. Regular notice if you own a unit downtown unfortunately.
“Trespassing Reminder – Notice
Dear Owners & Residents,
There has been issues noted with homeless people trespassing / congregating on strata property near the pedestrian gate.
If residents are noting people congregating and trespassing in this area, you can ask them to leave (if you feel comfortable doing so). If you don’t feel comfortable or the people do not leave, you can report this to VicPD via the E-Comm non-emergency line (250-995-7654). If you make a report and then notice that the people have left prior to police arrival it is helpful if you call back to E-Comm to let them know so police can remain free for other calls for service.
This is an interim solution until fencing options can be present to the ownership at the AGM this Spring. It is suggested that people calling ask for a file number and report to the property manager by email every time they call police for trespassing in this area so that the strata has an idea of the regularity of this issue.
For anyone in this area (or in the public space near the building) experiencing a crisis (mental health or substance use related) where there are no immediate safety concerns anyone can call the Community Led Crisis Response Team (CLCR). They do outreach work 7 days a week between 7:30 a.m. and 12:30 a.m. and can be reached by cell (250-818-2454).
Sincerely,”
With the drop in the CND dollar and the crackdown on AirBnb/short-term rentals some really good opportunities popping up out there. I’ve got two direct inquiries in the last week from movie industry contacts for my place – I am guessing they are shooting Netflix series up here because of the low dollar? Getting to the point where I am considering buying another 2 bed 2 bath in Vic West. I think 30 day rentals on such product could break 10k/30 days by this summer. This new government short-term rental portal registration non-sense will further eliminate even more limited supply and I am guessing most actors don’t want to stay in a hotel for 4-5 months during filming.
My cousin in Croatia is an oncologist and his wife is a GP and their max affordability was a 50 yr old 110 m2 condo in the core of Zagreb so a 1,200 sq.ft. condo. I don’t think such a scenario is far fetched in Victoria in 25 years. Just look at the numbers.
In 2004 we built almost 16,000 SFHs in BC. The population of BC was 4 million.
In 2024 we built less than 6,000 SFH in BC (I think a 70 year low). The population of BC is 5.8 million.
A smaller and smaller % of the population will be able to afford a SFH as SFHs will make up a much smaller % of housing stock.
Just to be clear, I think this is very unfortunate; however, I think it will be reality. Top 1% of income earners or generational wealth with be required to purchase a SFH. Whether that is in 20, 25, or 40 years it is coming here too sooner or later.
Max- What are the costs to tie a garden suite to the water, sewer and hydro systems? Is soil testing now required? Just curious, not planning one.
I’ve commented before that Canadians are generally now either rich or poor. It’s less useful to talk about the average Canadian when there aren’t that many of them.
Who will be buying those houses in 25 years? The rich, who can afford $2.7m.
Remember this is Langford, we can pretty much do whatever the hell we want. As long as you apply for the permit, pay the permit application fee, play by the rules, and have all the necessary inspections performed…Your golden man!
Dude, they can do whatever they want. My youngest is 16.
Max: It goes like this…
Nice plan you have for your kids’ lives. My kids wanted to make their own.
The one under the deck can have the w/d relocated to enter the lower in-law suite.
More Victorians are moving up island and that is having an affect on up island home prices. Fat with big bank accounts from the sale of their homes in Victoria this migration is causing home prices to jump in some up island areas.
Up until April of last year it was typical to purchase a town house in Comox in the mid $600,000 range. Those town home prices jumped by a hundred grand in just two months and by the end of May were now in the mid $700,000 range.
Unlike Victoria where strata home prices have remained basically unchanged since 2021, town homes in Comox have risen steadily from $525,000 to $770,000.
No I haven’t. The other one is semi detached. I have an 18’X18′ deck in the backyard that I had resurfaced with a 30 year finished vinyl surface. I enclosed the area below, permit approved and inspected by the municipality at the same time I was constructing the permit approved and inspected garden suite. It is self contained with a private entrance from the backyard.
I also have an 1150 sq/ft in-law suite down stairs that is good to go right now and just sits clean and vacant. Knowing that 325 sq/ft is rather small, I can easily jack another 300 sq/ft from the down stairs in-law suite. This will bring the existing down stairs in-law suite to 850 sq/ft.
In the 1980’s it was very common to have a self contained in-law suite in a build such as ours. Since the in-law suite is level entry with no stairs, and the Wife and I will only be getting older. This space could very likely be used by the two of us. This would leave the entire upper level clean and vacant, 3 beds, 2 baths.
Pretty sure you’ve only claimed to have one garden suite in all your prior posts.
Who will be selling all these houses in 25 years? I have two boys and my plan is very easy to follow. My Wife and I have worked very hard to bring this plan into fruition. We have two self contained, detached suites on dirt in the backyard. No rent will be required for our two boys. It goes like this…
-Boy #1. You pay the hydro bill, internet bill, and house insurance bill for the year. You buy your own food and contribute to the maintenance of the property.
-Boy #2. You pay the property taxes for the year. You buy your own food and contribute to the maintenance of the property.
When the Wife and I pass, the house is theirs. Multi generational.
I already have two thumbs. I am currently not looking for anymore thumbs at this time.
The high cost of housing isn’t a supply problem. It’s a demand problem.
BMO Capital Markets has repeatedly warned that promises to triple the new homes built and create affordability with supply, weren’t grounded in reality.
Now that Canada is quietly acknowledging this failure, they see real affordability on the way as scaled up building meets a shrinking population. For the next two years, the population will shrink due to a pulling back on immigration after a disastrous attempt to use it as a stimulus.
It wasn’t a supply side issue as originally thought Lifting regulatory hurdles just boosted land values which reduced the amount of building. Pumping billions into government backed loans and stimulus to incentivize developers, to no effect.
All great for future you if you are 30 and buying in Victoria – assuming 4% appreciation by 55 your Victoria home is worth $2665836.33 after tax while the 400k Edmonton option is $1066334.53… Many Canadians just can’t afford to carry the costs of a 1,000,000 home and pay for kids and discretionary spending.
How can we assume house prices are going to go up at a steady rate to $2.7m while many Canadians already can’t afford to carry the costs of a $1m house? Who will be buying these houses in 25 years?
I think this kind of speculation feels like nonsense. Just because this is what happened in the past with housing doesn’t mean it will happen in the future, especially given that wages are not increasing at 4%, the cost of a mortgage and insurance and taxes goes up as the cost of a house goes up, Canada’s population is aging and set to decline and reduce demand, and the consistent downward trajectory of interest rates for most of the period between the 80s and the early 2020s can’t really be replicated. That isn’t even considering the impacts of climate change on insurance and survivabilty of houses…
Like, sure it’s worked out so far, maybe it will work out for another 5-10 years. But 25 years of constatnt annual gains? Given everything that is going on now in the world and the way things are looking for the future?
Many can’t but enough can such that the average SFH’s in the core is still above $1M. Most buyers currently are end users and investors are mostly on the sidelines. 1M mortgage with a 30 year amort works out to just about under 5k a month mortgage using current rates or just call it 6k including taxes and utilities. Yes it is a lot of money but at the same time it is also doable for a certain segment of the population which is what keeps the market moving sideways, when you add in the income from some type of illegal suite the numbers look even better.
FWIW, I sold one of my condos in October for 550k that had previously been rented for $2200/month and sold another unit in July for 800k that had rented for $3800/month. Both had parking and storage and included hydro. VicRe’s math on price to rental looks closer to current conditions to me. Obviously if someone had been in a unit for many years and was paying below market rent the math would work out differently
Uhh, if you look at my prior post I was responding to that arm chair appraiser (or whatever he is) implying that costs are similar between renting and buying with 20/30% down. I am just saying if that’s the case then taking a flyer on renting and investing is likely not a prudent strategy for most people.
Your math is also flawed because right now you can get 5 year fixed in the low 4% range which makes a ~$525k mortgage around 2500 and not 2888. In addition you are not going to be able to rent the equivalent of a $675k condo for $2000 a month, not even close. Based on recent sales comps @ $675k you are looking at a large luxury one bedroom in the bayview or shoal point etc. or a 2 bed 2 bath at ERA (unit 711 went for $645 last month or unit 404 in the belvedere that went for 665k in Nov) or some other similar steel/concrete downtown buildings, rents for those will all be over 2500 a month. Anything that rents for $2000 a month can be purchased for under 500k currently which changes the mortgage balance to below $350k, also keep in mind that some of those 2000 a month rental units will have no parking or storage, all of which will be an extra cost.
It does? You are buying an asset with resale value, not paying rent.
All great for future you if you are 30 and buying in Victoria – assuming 4% appreciation by 55 your Victoria home is worth $2665836.33 after tax while the 400k Edmonton option is $1066334.53. You come out ahead 1.6 million buying in Victoria – or $175 more per day less the increased mortgage interest and any returns you might have earned on the mortgage interest if you would have invested it.
The real difference is how much you had to spend on shelter in the intervening 25 years, especially the first 10, and what it meant for your family. Many Canadians just can’t afford to carry the costs of a 1,000,000 home and pay for kids and discretionary spending.
Let’s say a “nice condo” is $675k and is comparable to renting for $2000/month. Keep in mind paid rent is lower than advertised rent.
If you put down 150k, the mortgage would be $2888/mo. Condo fee: $585/mo. Taxes $237/mo.
Your monthly income from savings went from $2000/mo to $1450/month while monthly expenses went from $2000/mo to $3710/month. You’ve nearly doubled your expenses while lowering your income. It’s worse if rent was covering utilities. Your lifestyle is the same. Your savings are less diversified and significantly less accessible.
Maybe there aren’t many in that situation but we’re talking about millennials who have been working their after post-secondary education job for something like 15 years. If you have enough in savings that rent is basically covered, I think a lot of people would feel less pressure to buy, not more.
Right, how many people with 500k liquid doesn’t own a home already? Put 150k down, buy a nice condo and invest the remaining 350k seems like a more reasonable strategy.
If you’ve got $500k and a 5% return, that’s ~2k/month. Not dumping your money into a home would mean that monthly expenses are just about covered. And returns have been far exceeding 5% recently.
Saw this on Reddit the other day:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/1i3pm9u/moving_out_of_province_is_not_always_the_answer/
The difference between here and Edmonton is wild. I hate the place but that’s seriously affordable. Terrible napkin math: If a home here is $1m while it’s $400k in Edmonton, then over 25 years it costs ~$65/day to live here instead of Edmonton. That’s if you’re buying with cash.
If payments are the same with 20% down then why the hell would anyone rent instead of buy unless they are not planning to stay put for a couple of years? If you want to gamble that then you need to be an experienced investor and have high enough income/wealth where you will not be priced out if the market turns against you.
Seen quite a few of those come back. Here is one chasing the market down for over a year:
https://realtor.ca/real-estate/27811948/966-saturna-pl-saanich-cordova-bay?utm_source=consumerapp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialsharelisting
Sidekick , ya I would do a watering system and get my place into the 20th century next time. We are making plans to travel more but I still own a company and have no plans to retire before 80 lol
Purely by luck we owned a house in Edmonton from 2005 to 2008. Leo’s chart makes that look like spectacular market timing
Vicre, agree best to get out of the gate and when you’re young . U will just get it paid off sooner. Trump is huge on asset inflation , it will interesting to see if Canada catches the bug
Dangerous choice as that has not worked out for most in the past, given the choice I would take advantage of the weakness in the current downtown condo market and try to get a good deal on the condo. Seems to me that the days of left wing policies of being easy on crime and drugs are numbered so you could reasonably expect that downtown will get better going forward. This combined with Marko’s point of no new condo projects in the pipeline likely signals that a bottom for the downtown condo market is either already here or near.
A 2000’s built SFH with a 2 bed suite on 6000 sqft just went for 1.4M in gordon head, seems to be a multi year low for that product. There are 3 other houses currently for sale on that street (oakview pl), this is a bad comp for those sellers
The decline in newcomers is showing up in the higher vacancy rate. There still seems to be enough growth to keep rents stablish.
When the growth rate was at or below 1 percent during the first decade of 2000, the nominal rental rates were flat. In terms of real dollars they were declining. But we were not constructing purpose built rentals back then either.
The choice back then was to rent a 1970’s style apartment or a newish condominium. Newcomers to the city have more choices today.
The way I’m seeing the condo and rental markets is that you can buy a new(er) condo and put down 20 to 30 percent or you can rent a PBR for about the same rent as the mortgage on an equivalent condo without putting down a sizeable down payment.
I think in some cases, it’s better for a millennial to rent and invest what would have been the down payment.